The Best One Yet - ⚔️ “The Great Coffee Takeover” — Luckin’s Starbucks-killer. Airlines’ new auto-refunds. Hermes’ Birkin Bag mafia.

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

Hermes is the top fashion stock right now… but it just got sued for running a handbag hustle.Starbucks’ greatest threat is Luckin Coffee… and Luckin’s coming to America.Finally, airlines are required to auto-refund your canceled flight… because burdens are big.Plus, the #1 ranked bar in the world is in Mexico City… and it’s ½ the price of NYC cocktails.$HESAY $LKNCY $AAL—-----------------------------------------------------Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are we not wearing costumes today? No, we didn't get them, no. I thought it was like hollow week. I thought it was like the whole week. We closed out the week in this stuff. Nope. This is Nick. This is Jack.

It's Friday the real Friday. November 1st. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. All right. So I'm still in costume and Jack has let all of us down because he's not still in the costume. Day after Halloween, why would I be in a costume?

It's called the post-Holween, Jack, and apparently I got the memo and you didn't. In the meantime, Yetis, we got a Kit Kat hangover, but we got three fantastic stories for you. Jack, what's on the pod? For our first story, Starbucks is about to face its greatest threat yet. China's Luckin' Coffee. Luckin' coffee is building 22 stores every single day, and now Luckin is coming to America. For our second story, it's the number one fashion stock in the world right now, Armeys, and sales of their Birkenbag are thriving.

But Armée has just got sued for being a handbag. Mob boss, we'll tell you why. And our third and final story. Finally, a new law requires airlines to automatically refund you if you're entitled to a refund. Representative! So we have to tell you the economics of burdens. Representatives.

But Yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Fantastic mix of stories for post-Halloween, Jack. Love the mix today. Nick and I found the greatest bar in the entire world. And the greatest bar in the world is hidden under a trapdoor over in Mexico City. According to the world's best list, Handshakes Speakeasy is the number one bar in the world. We'd tell you the address, but honestly, you still wouldn't be able to find it. But why is this the best bar?

It's not because of its hard-to-find location. This is the best bar because it isn't really a bar. Handshake Speakeasy is actually a scientific experience that your chemistry teacher would approve. Because the handshake speakeasy has a menu that's molecular. There is one drink that features a cloud that they light on fire. Or Jack, did you see they have another drink that's a peanut butter sandwich chemically turned into a cocktail? How about the drink that is liquid somehow solidified into the shape of a Lego? I don't know if I should play with it or if I should sip it. It's not a bar. It's a lab. The handshake speakeasy is like Gatsby and Einstein got into

business together and then got wasted. And then got a Michelin Starvoie. And then got a Michelin Starvo. While they were wasted, yet is the exchange rate between the U.S. and Mexican pesos. It's actually really good right now. For Americans, the world's best cocktail converts to just $10 per drink. That's right. Half price of a Red Bull and vodka in New York, you get the best cocktail in the world. If you buy enough drinks, you break even on the airplane ticket. So besties this Saturday, don't go out to your usual typical local bar.

That's not girl, Matt. That's gold to Mexico City, Matt. Fly to Mexico City. one of the greatest cities in the world for the number one cocktail. Because he doesn't remember it. Jack, let's in our through stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm.

They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Our first story. China's Luckin coffee is disrupting the world's coffee cup. And now Luckin is entering the United States. So we've got a plan to save Starbucks. But first, coffee. I'm sorry, but first, Starbucks.

Jack, let's talk about Starbucks. Because Starbucks is a company in crisis right now. They just announced their worst earnings in the history of the company. Yeti Starbucks, they got 40,000 stores, and the average Starbucks location suffered a 9% sales drop from last year. They need a change badly. So, they are bringing back Sharpies to label the names on the coffee cups. Charming, very personal. And they're going to stop charging you if you request a non-dairy creamer.

They're ending the almond milk tax once and for all. It's about time. We needed it. But Starbucks's bigger issue isn't creamer. It's China. Because luck in coffee is eating Starbucks latte. Luckin Coffee. It launched in 2017, and initially, they were a ghost kitchen. Very innovative at the time. They only delivered hot coffee to people's desks. Jack, I was in China in 2017, and we tried this out. They used QR codes. It seemed like the future.

In 2019, they IPOed. Nick and I bought the stock, actually, and the company was moving crazy fast. Yeah. Too fast, it turns out. Yeah, Jack says too fast because a year later, they suffered an accounting scandal. They lied about their numbers, and they got delisted from the stock. exchange. That's when I sold my stock, but Nick actually hung on to this. You held on to it. What are you going to do? And that was a good move because Luckin is back. They have fixed their finances and now they are dominating the Chinese market. Now, Yeti's, Jack and I jumped in T-boy style to the latest Luckin coffee numbers and they were so wild, we had to get a second calculator. Get this. Luckin coffee opened 8,000 locations in China in the past 12 months. Jack, could you calculate some contact?

for us please over there. 8,000 locations in one year is 22 brand new stores every single day for the whole year. To sprinkle on some more context, Starbucks opened their first China location in 1999, and today they have 7,600 locations in China. So besties, what Jack and I are saying is that Luckin opened more locations in one year in China than Starbucks did in 25 years. Not just that. Luckin's got these low-cost lattes, two bucks per latte, at 22,000 locations they've opened. Meanwhile, I dropped $12 over at blue bottles so they could put some cardamom in my latte. So Starbucks is getting beat by Luckin in China, but here's the worst news for Starbucks. Crazy news.

Luckin is now coming to the United States. Yeties, if you've been watching NBA basketball games lately, have you noticed a couple Luckin coffee commercials? They're introducing themselves to their next market, the U.S. And according to the Financial Times, Luckin is strategically entering the United States. Jack, how are they doing it? Their first locations will be in places that have lots of Chinese expats. For example, New York City, it's got a lot of Chinese students and a lot of Chinese tourists. So Luckin is starting there first. Now, they're not going to be open 22 locations per day to start in the U.S., but eventually they could. I don't think we have enough workers. So, Jack, when it comes to Luckin coffee, what's the

takeaway for our buddies over at Starbucks. Starbucks should quit their China business, and Uber is the perfect precedent. Getty's, back in 2016, Uber had a whole bunch of problems, so they decided to cut and run from their China business. Uber sold their Chinese ride-hilling business to their Chinese rival, D-D.D. And the results? What were they, Jack? It worked out great for Uber. Today, Uber is three times as valuable as they were back then. It looked like a loss at the time, but it actually was a win because it let Uber cut its losses and reinvest that money into the United States. Starbucks finds itself in the exact same situation today. They are struggling mightily in China against new Chinese competition. Starbucks, they're never going to be luckin on price,

and Chinese consumers, they're increasingly preferring Chinese brands. That's why we think Starbucks's new CEO should throw in the towel and sell all 7,600 Chinese locations to Luckin. And honestly, Brian Nichols, we're talking to you, the new CEO. We don't think that's a failure. We think that's a strategic move to win somewhere else. To win in your more important markets, which are the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world. And that's why we think Starbucks should pull an Uber and quit their China business. For our second story, Hermes, the French fashion house, was just accused of acting like a mob boss.

We're going to share the secret formula to Hermes' business success. Now, Yeti is last week, Jack and I told you about the great luxury lull. Louis Vuitton announced their sales are down 5%. Gucci sales are down 25%. But Hermes, Hermes of France, it is the outlier in the entire luxury industry. What's going on, Jack? They're the only luxury brand living in luxury right now. Jack, let's talk about Hermes' latest earnings report.

What was in the numbers, man? Sales rose 14% and the stock is up 18% so far this year. According to one analyst named Mugatu, Hermes, so hot right now. Here's the surprise. Their most expensive handbag, the Birken bag, is booming in this economy. The Birken bag is now 25% of Armeys sales. The Birken bag is named after the singer Jane Birken. It was invented in 1981.

Nick, what happened? Okay, it's actually a great story. She was on a flight, this actress, with the CEO of Armez, and her bag spilled on top of him when she was taking it out of the overhead. So, she suggested. did she design a bag for our maze, and her maze complied, and they made a bag together. And the bag is known to stand up straight. Like, it balances upright, right? It doesn't fall out of an airplane overhead jack.

But did you know that today, it takes 20 hours to make one single bag? And it's said to be completed by one single crafts person. That's why the Birken bag is priced at $10,000 on the low end to $100,000 on the high end. It's one of the most statement, a statement piece is you can. can buy, man. But Hermes and the Birkenbag just got hit with the freakiest lawsuit in all of fashion. Because Hermes just got accused of being the mafia. Because Yeties, here's the story. You can't just buy a Birkenbag. You have to first be on a list. And to get on the list, you have to go to a store and give your name and then wait for what could be years. Years. And that is

why three Americans who are not patient at all are now suing the Aramaze company because they say the list is rigged. Here's their claim. They say you can only move up on the list and eventually get access to a bag if you first shop a whole bunch on other Arme's products. Maybe you buy a $1,000 airma's scarf. Boom, you move up three spots on the Birkenbag list. Buy a $10,000 watch, you move up 10 spots on the list. Yeah, Yeties, the legal case against Arme's. It's a little bit more technical. What is it, Jack? Is that they violate antitrust law by tying two product purchases together, which you're not supposed to do. In more plain spoken English, how would you put that, Jack?

This quid pro quo feels a little scummy. Basically, it's saying that Hermes' boss acts like a mob boss. Now, Hermes denies this. They said it's not possible. Lawsuit aside, Nick, we'll let the jury decide. Why is Hermes so hot right now? So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Hermes? Ermez is getting attention by not seeking attention.

Yeti's, every luxury brand faces this one key challenge. They have to balance exclusivity with availability. That's why Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Prada all sell entry-level products at lower prices, too. Yeah, they've got to remain elite, but they also got to sell stuff to make money, so they do some cheaper stuff. But Hermes doesn't do that. They've focused on one thing, becoming synonymous with scarcity. Hermes, they don't do collabs like Louis Vuitton. They don't do gimmicks like Gucci.

Hermes only does weightless, limits, and scarcity. Their scarcity extends to their stores, too. It's true. Gucci and Louis Vuitton, they have over 500 stores. Ermez has half that many. And yet, Hermes is now a $250 billion company. It actually has the highest valuation per store of any business we could find in fashion. Of any business, period. In fact, Hermes is the fifth most valuable retailer on earth with just 300 stores. Armaze is winning because it's the only luxury brand absolutely committed to scarcity. Armease is getting attention by not seeking attention. Now a quick word from our sponsor.

For our third and final story before the weekend, the Department of Transportation just announced a new move that airlines hate. Automatic refunds. The only thing changing is who has the burden. But that change is, is everything. Because the burden is a barrier. Now, yetis, you know Jack and me. We don't like to dabble in conspiracy theories, but there is one conspiracy theory. We're willing to dabble in, right, Jack? I believe airlines drop customer support calls on purpose. Yeties, you just finished spelling your email, your phone number, your frequent flyer number, your date of birth, you explain the situation, they asked for your

street address, you gave them three street addresses, and then, oh, wait, they dropped the call. Are you kidding? Goodbye. And then you have to decide. Am I going to call them back and re-explain all of that to a new customer support person? And Jack, why do we have this airline conspiracy theory, our only conspiracy theory? Because the airlines know that your call is probably about a refund. Your dropped call saved airlines money. In fact, that customer support agent probably gets a bonus because you didn't call back and you didn't get the refund you were probably going to ask about.

We can't verify that, but it feels good to say. It's just good to get off the chest. Yeah, and this news feels good too. that's why the Department of Transportation just announced new rules for automatic refunds to passengers who endorse significant flight disruptions. As of this week, there's finally justice at 30,000 feet. Now, there's big numbers associated with this story. There are huge numbers associated with this story. This new rule represents a $5 billion transfer annually from airline profits to our pockets, according to the travel site upgraded points.

And here are the new rules. Yeties of an airline, cancels delays or significantly changes your flight, you are entitled to a refund. You could accept the delay and stick with the flight and not get a refund, but you're entitled to cancel the flight and get a refund if you want. If you do cancel, you don't get airline credit. You would now get cash. Automatically, the airline must refund you automatically within 20 days to the original payment method. And the new rule also defines significant delay for the first time ever. So if your domestic flight is delayed by three hours or more, you're entitled to cancel and get an automatic refund. That is technically a delay. And it's six hours for an international, significant delay.

Oh, also, if you pay for services like Wi-Fi or seat selection and you don't get those things, Jack? Automatic refund. It's on the airline to pay you back. You don't have to even request it. Now, naturally, airlines hate this new rule. Yeah, they say, don't tell us how to run our business government. We know what we're doing over here on the tarmac. But the reason they hate the rule, it's going to cost each of the big U.S. airlines a billion dollars of profits each. We can guarantee you. It's going to cost them a billion dollars each, and we can guarantee it because of our takeaway. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in economics? Who bears the burden bears the cost.

Yeties, this new airline rule, it actually does just one thing. One very simple thing. It shifts the burden from the consumer to the airline. The status quo is that you're entitled to a refund for all of the airline. those things we said. But the consumer has had the burden of requesting the refund. And airlines, they are incentivized to make it super hard to request that refund. You need a confirmation number. You need the ticket number. And you need those like three previous street addresses just to get through. I know they have all the information they need with just the confirmation number. Why do I also have to give the ticket number? Yeties, not everyone can bear that burden. You don't have time for 60

minutes to make a phone call. And that's why the airlines win. But with this rule change, the burden is on the airlines, not on you requesting the refund anymore. A great example of the burden in economics would be rebates, right, Jack? How about rebates? Oh, $50 rebate if you buy a new TV. Guess what? 90% of people don't send that rebate back in the mail. They forget about it or they lose it. But now that refunds will come automatically, airlines will pay $5 billion a year in refunds we were already entitled to, but failed to request because we're all too busy. Pete Buttigieg, the head of the Transportation Department, said this. Passengers deserve to get their money back when an airline owes them without headaches and without haggling.

In economics, who bears the burden bears the cost. And now airlines bear the burden. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? Starbucks is getting their butts kicked in China because of Luckin, which is coming to the United States next. So we think Starbucks should quit its China business, and Uber is the perfect precedent. For our second story, it's Air Mays. Their stock is up 18% this year, despite the loan luxury and a lawsuit that calls them corrupt. The Birkenbag is back, baby. Our maze is getting attention by not seeking attention.

Unlike Nick, who's wearing a Halloween costume the day after Halloween. And our third and final story, a new rule requires automatic refunds from airlines. Customers don't need to request them anymore. And that's big because of one core economic principle. Who bears the burden bears the cost. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, both Apple and Amazon announced earnings that beat expectations.

Their stocks both jumped on Thursday. Funny, because the day before, Meta and Microsoft announced earnings that disappointed. So both of their stocks fell. Half a big tech giants, they outperformed. Half a big tech underperformed more analysis coming at you next week. Second, this was a big week for economic reports. On Wednesday, we learned that GDP growth in the third quarter was strong once again at 2.8%. And yesterday, we learned that inflation slowly.

load again in the month of September. And today, Friday morning, we get the final jobs report before the election. No big deal. They just dropped every major economic report within five days of a presidential election. No big deal. You're not going conspiratorial on. Sorry, Nick. No, no, no, no, no. And finally, daylight savings is this weekend. Clocks go back and you get an extra hour of sleep starting very, very soon. Starting Saturday night. Yes, you do. Actually, Sunday really, really early. It'll get lighter earlier in the morning and it'll get darker earlier in the after. noon, except in Arizona. And that's all you need to know. Arizona is now either three or four hours behind the East Coast.

Arizona's like living on moon time. No one knows what time it is in Arizona. Not even the Arizona's Jack. Now time for the best fact yet. This one is actually the winner of our T-boy Halloween business contest. We got four fantastic finalists for business-themed Halloween costumes. This was a close one, Jack, because, you know, the kid old starter pack. That was, you know, the inflation fighter. These were, these were very, very, very close. But the winner, but the was Chris, who dressed up as a Google Doc. Chris was a Google Doc. He wore a Google T-shirt and then wore a Dr. Scrubs and a doctor's stethoscope so he could be a Google Doc.

I was accepting his suggested changes all throughout trick-or-treating. Loading, loading, loading. The Google Docs app works really poorly on the iPhone. What's up, Chris? Why don't you fix that, Chris? Chris, congratulations. The Google Doc is the best costume yet. Yeties, you looked fantastic for Halloween. Jack, on a scale of Reese's to Snickers,

how Kit Kat hungover are you right now? I did have my first nerd clusters. They were really good. Everyone took our nerd clusters. They were gone. Did the Pod Sun get any nerd clusters? Correction. We actually got a nerds rope and we just snipped it, which basically turns it into nerd clusters. It sounds inappropriate, but I like what you did there, Jack. What did the Pod Sun wear, by the way? Was he a dinosaur? Yeah, it was a T-Rex. The whole family was T-Rexes. Yeah, he's hoping. Yeties hope you had a fantastic week as well. And this weekend, when he got some time, check out our new show, the best idea yet. Jack, what's the episode?

We just dropped the episode about Birkenstock, which has a 250-year history, but we zoom in on 1960 when they came to America during the hippie movement. The untold origin stories of the products you're obsessed with. Our newest episode, it's on the Birkenstock. Jack and I will still be in our costumes and see you on Monday. And before we go, a shout out to all the New York City Marathon Runners who are already carboloading. Jack, a couple of Yeti's in the crowd, who we got.

Adeline Figuera is running her first marathon. Good luck. And Amy Gruen, who is running her marathon after being in a coma in 2022 with a rare brain infection, she has now run six marathons since recovering. Incredible Amy. Real Amy.

And congratulations to Luis and Sable Yuha, who are getting married in Hollister, California, before they head to Japan for the honeymoon. Not too shabby. And our buddy Mia Pant, The Hanzer, the hottest mom in Montclair, is celebrating a birthday, baby. From Siasid to Chicago to Montclair, the best one yet, all the way. Is it Siazis? Is that correct?

I don't think it is, actually. It is, but it's something like that. It's enough... Just outside Boston. And Michael Moho is celebrating the birthday in Nashville, New Hampshire, the same birthday as his dog bud. And happy 31st birthday to Shelby C. In Seattle, who went to our live show. Amazing meeting.

And Justlien Rondawa is celebrating a birthday in West Bloomfield, Michigan. with the Wolverines, baby. Go Blue. Happy five-year anniversary to Stephen and Janice Gaisens in Arlington, Virginia. Celebrate the wins. And Eliza Stowe

in Virginia is working as a farmer in Oregon, but is going to Vietnam for a month and is just going to have a fantastic time. Happy 65th birthday to Greg Goodwin in Birmingham, Alabama, who's the CFO for a wonderful nonprofit. And congratulations to Talia Demoleen,

who is completing her master's and moving to Norway to conduct research on our minds. Happy anniversary to Cody and Cindy Robinson. in Arlington, Virginia. One year, baby, and Natalie Herrera in Paris, France is celebrating her last of her 20s with a birthday in Istanbul. And shout out to Katie Clark Gray, a wonderful writer who whipped up this costume idea.

The bubble tea bubble. I feel so seen. It was a fantastic costume. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon. Nick and I both own stock of Apple. And Nick own stock of Luckin Coffee. Honestly, I forgot to sell it.

I feel like the whole airplane should applaud that we just landed. I did this thing.