The Best One Yet - 👼 “The Only Child Economy” — Millennials’ parenting impact. Netflix’s All-Star sports strategy. Trump’s cabinet stocks.

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back. It is Monday, November 18th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Yetis, can we tell you why you look especially fantastic today? Because you're wearing T-boy merch. That's right. Our T-Boy holiday merch store, it just opened. The merch just dropped and wearing the hat right now, Jack. We got a new T-boy hoodie, a new sweatsuit, a new hat, a new toe bag, and all our best catchphrases in a sticker bag. The store is only open for a few more days before we cut off the pre-order. It's all on T-boypod.com slash shop. You can buy it right now. The link to the store is in the episode description. So besties, pause the pod, order some merch. And in the meantime, Jack, we got three fantastic stories for today's show. What do we got, man?

Starting point is 00:00:47 For our first story. Did you know that no U.S. president has ever been an only child? We did not know that. So we jumped in T-boy style. Well, millennials are forming more only-child families than ever. So Jack and I got the wild data on the only child economy. For our second story, last week, Donald Trump announced his first cabinet picks, and each appointment moved the stock market.

Starting point is 00:01:10 So we're breaking down Trump's cabinet ripple effects on the economy. And our third and final story is Mike Tyson versus Jake Paul. Netflix just streamed their first live boxing match ever. Netflix is pioneering a new sports business model, and we call it DTA. Direct to athlete. If you know, you know. Whoa! But, Yetis, before we had that wonderful mix of stories. I am so happy with this mix. Nobody's doing this mix. I love the mix, Jack. Yeties, if you're over 60, we know what you did yesterday.

Starting point is 00:01:44 Because besties, you're probably hung over from a weekend of drinking at your kids' college. Admit it. According to the Wall Street Journal, the number of parents partying on student campuses is way up. It's an all-time hijack. Fall weekend is the new. parent party weekend. Every October or November, college students invite their folks to visit for parents weekend. They watch a football game, you got a sorority brunch, and then one of the parents pulls you out of the dining hall and into a very expensive restaurant. Fire an ice at Middlebury. If you know, you know. But lately, parents aren't checking out the classes, the campus, or the quad, are they, Jack. Parents are pounding the punch in the frat house like it's

Starting point is 00:02:26 1982. Mom's doing jealous shots. Dad's hitting the beer pong at 10 a.m. Nick, who's next up on the flip cup table? Mrs. Thompson, you called dibs. You're off. Actually, Nick, Baker's dad bought the keg, so he has dibs all night. Okay, Baker's dad's on it. Yet he's the trendy new college drink this fault? No joke. What is it called, Jack? Strawberry, Dad Caritas, and Mammeritas. Pass the parental palomas. I'm going to need six of them. But yeties, if a parent says to put the drink on their tab, are they referring to tuition? Jack, I don't think that's a right. off, is it, man? No, it's not. So Yeti's Fall Weekend College Festivities,

Starting point is 00:03:00 they've never looked older. And you don't have to worry about checking IDs this weekend either. Let us know if your parents partook in the festivities. We got a poll going on Spotify. Now, Jack, let's hit our three fantastic stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea

Starting point is 00:03:17 that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%. That's a fat. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know you know because we're ready to go, we can't wait no more, so just start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

Starting point is 00:03:49 For our first story, the hot new parenting trend in America is only children. Millennials are having only child families more than previous generations, and there's actually an entire only child economy that we want to talk about. We'll tell you all the details. But first, to sprinkle on some familial context, Jack, let me make sure I got the numbers right here. You are the third of four boys, correct? Correct. And you're the oldest of two children. I got one sister. There we go. There we go.

Starting point is 00:04:18 Molly is the third of three kids. And Alex, my wife, is a one and only child. Well, Jack, out of all of us, Alex is the only, only child. And actually, that is very, very trendy right now. Let's look to the data. In the 1970s, 11% of American families had one child. Today, that percentage has doubled to 22% of American families with one kid. And now, yeties, sometimes having an only child is a choice, but oftentimes it is not a choice.

Starting point is 00:04:47 Fertility can be a major challenge. But more millennials who can choose are choosing to have one child right now. And the only child? It's a phenomenon that has a lot of economics that we want to unpack. Well, Jack, we should explain first. What is the stereotype of your typical only child out there? An only child is spoiled and entitled like Dennis the Menace. Fun fact, America has never had an only child president. But America has had many only child superheroes.

Starting point is 00:05:16 We should point that out, James Bond, Harry Potter, Hermione, Wayne, Bruce Wayne of Batman. Frodo Baggins was an only child. Anakin Skywalker only child. In the fictional world, only children save the world is what we're saying. However, only children have a very particular set of unique skills. Only children are independent. They learn how to entertain themselves. They learn how to solve problems better on their own. So even though we haven't had an only child president yet, we have had some epic only child inventors. Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, all only children.

Starting point is 00:05:54 But yet he is, this is what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. In general, the reason most families choose to have an only child is the economy. Historically, only child families happen more during economic recessions than during economic boom times. Jack, let's whip out the history books here. Great Depression, eight years long, worst economic period in American history. The percent of only children family more than doubled during the Great Depression. Now, on the flip side of the Great Depression, the post-war economic boom, that's what led to the baby boom. The number of only children families fell in half during the baby boom years. And despite today's economic growth,

Starting point is 00:06:33 Most American families are actually living paycheck to paycheck. They're thinking about the prices out there. So in this economy, more millennials are choosing to have one kid, a solo kid, a singleton. Yeah, Jack, what's the wild stats on raising a family right now and how much it costs per a kid? The cost to raise a child and the cost of child care are massively outpacing inflation. On average, it costs $310,000 just to raise a single child at a time. I mean, you could have a kid or you could have a Lamborghini. So the reason millennials are having only children at double the rates of previous generations,

Starting point is 00:07:09 it's economics. You could have 62,000 lattes, I just did the math, or one child. Is that assuming a $6 latte? Well, Jack, side note here, only children do get more spoiled by their grandparents, so that's a nice boost to GDP. I'm not sure that's economically sound, but I like the sentiment of it. Pretty sure Nana buys an only grandchild like 48 Christmas gifts. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are,

Starting point is 00:07:33 Anyone who doesn't have to deal with a brother or sister. There is an only child economy. Yeties, we're not talking about the demographic challenges of a shrinking population when we talk about the only child economy. We've covered that in other stories and we'll cover that again in the future. What we are talking about is the unique purchase and labor decisions made by only children. And we have the perfect case study to prove what those labor and purchasing decisions are. That case study is China.

Starting point is 00:08:03 Because yet he's China had a one-child policy for 30 years. Therefore, there's an entire generation in China of just only children. And the results of what those only children did in China are fascinating. For example, only children have lower risk tolerance than kids with siblings. So in only child economies, there are fewer entrepreneurs and more traditional jobs. Another data point, only children are great individual performers, but they're a little less great at collaboration. We see this in China as well, which dominates individual Olympic sports, but struggles more with team sports. Oh, another point, solo children become solo caretakers for their parents when they get old. So they tend to be better savers and long-term investors.

Starting point is 00:08:47 So in the only child generation that's being raised right now by millennials, we'll have fewer founders, but more CEOs. We'll have less splurgeon, but more saving. We'll have a little less purchasing, but a little more prudence. And that is the only child. Child Akana. For our second story, Trump's election immediately made a huge positive splash on the stock market. But his cabinet appointments last week made serious ripples in the other direction. So we're looking at the Trump trade and the Trump dump because both are happening. Now, yet he's in Trump's victory speech last week, he promised a new golden era for America

Starting point is 00:09:31 and Wall Street, Wall Street agreed and jumped on board. The day after the election, Stocks had their biggest bump in two years. The S&P 500 touched a brand new all-time high. Jack, what was that wild quote from Jamie Diamond over the weekend? He said that bankers are dancing in the streets. Figuratively and literally, we've seen some of those UBS bankers. They were jumping around on Fifth Avenue. The CEO of America's biggest bank thinks that every industry will benefit, not just bankers, if Trump can erase overzealous regulations that stymie business. Plus, with Trump's Republican Party now in control of Congress, they're expected to extend

Starting point is 00:10:05 and possibly expand his corporate tax cuts. But last week, some specific stocks reversed the stock market boom. We jumped in T-boy style. And interestingly, the stocks that reversed were based on Trump's early cabinet choices, the people who he's going to surround himself with. And the companies that suffered the biggest losses last week are the ones that actually benefit from regulation. So Jack and I got curious about what was going on here.

Starting point is 00:10:31 And Jack, let's look at who moved and what stocks changed. First, it was pharmaceutical companies. Trump appointed famed vaccine skeptic, RFK Jr. to lead health and human services. Now, Moderna and Pfizer, they are drug makers who benefit from public health efforts to vaccinate people. So what happened to those stocks, Jack? Their stocks fell 20% and 7% on news that RFK is going to influence vaccine policies. Now, it wasn't just pharmaceutical companies. The second stocks to move were electric vehicle companies.

Starting point is 00:11:03 On Thursday, we read reports that Trump is. planning to pay for some of those tax cuts we mentioned by cutting incentives for clean energy. More specifically, the $7,500 coupon that the government gives buyers of new electric cars to get you to buy a new electric car. So, Rivian stock fell 20% on Friday, because now Rivians are going to have to compete with gas cars, and they're not going to get any credit for being a clean energy vehicle. But interestingly, Tesla stock fell less than Rivian because Tesla is an older electric car maker, so they're less dependent on these incentives. But overall, the first week post-election was all about stock market gains.

Starting point is 00:11:40 And yet the second week post-election was all about stock market losses. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies who are investing out there? Markets are taking over everything. Get ready for a wild ride. Now, yeties, why do government incentives exist? Well, in your classic econ class, you'll learn it's because the market, it doesn't always work. For example, if the market was the only thing happening, factories would dump their chemicals into the river because that's the cheapest option for them. So the government

Starting point is 00:12:09 steps in, it regulates the factories or incentivizes them to dump that waste somewhere else. But with the exception of tariffs, Donald Trump is a pro-market president through and through. And as a pro-market president, unbridled market forces are taken over right now. And in some cases, that's a really good thing. Government involvement can fail. It can lead to wasted tax dollar spending. And the economy, it can grow faster with less rules and less regulations. But unbridled market forces can also be a bad thing. As we mentioned, that factory, it could return to dumping chemicals in the river. So now, two weeks after the election, we know Trump's early cabinet choices, and there is one defining theme. The Trump administration is letting the markets take

Starting point is 00:12:51 over everything. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story, this weekend, Netflix hosted the most watched boxing match in 50 years. What's Netflix? is wild new sports strategy, go direct to athlete. DTA, direct to athlete, and we'll explain. But first, Jack, I know, I know, you wanted to do some trivia, you told me for the pot. Okay, you got trivia, trivia, what do we got, Jack? What's the most watched boxing match of all time? I'm going to say thriller in Manila because I like the way that rhymes. Really good guess. It was Muhammad Ali, but it was not the thrill in Manila. Muhammad Ali versus George Foreman, 1974, in a soccer arena in Africa.

Starting point is 00:13:41 It happened in the middle of the night so that New York City could watch it during prime time. Do you know how many people watched that match? How many people watch the match? One billion people, a quarter of the world's population in 1974. I'm not a boxing guy. I'm not a boxing guy. I believe you should drink punches, not throw punches. But last Friday night, Netflix hosted its first ever boxing match, Mike Tyson. versus Jake Paul. Mike Tyson, a 58-year-old man who's way past his boxing prime versus a 27-year-old man

Starting point is 00:14:13 in his peak influencer Instagram Prime. There was a 31-year age gap between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul. That's the biggest age gap in boxing history. It was basically Gen Z versus baby boomer with no earlobes harmed during the boxing match. Now, interestingly, they did change the rules of boxing just to make this match happen. The rounds were two minutes each instead of three minutes each, and they gave the boxer's heavier gloves to make the punches a little less dangerous, I think. But here was the key. Netflix offered this boxing match at no extra cost. So on Friday night, all 282 million Netflix households could watch that Friday fight live.

Starting point is 00:14:52 And that is why this was likely the most watched fight in a century. You didn't have to pay 50 bucks for pay-per-view. You just needed a Netflix account. But funny thing, Jack and I remembered Yeti. Netflix once said that they would never get into live sports, didn't they, Jack? And we've got the receipts. Let's go back to 2022. When then co-CEO Ted Sarandos said this. He said, we're not anti-sports.

Starting point is 00:15:19 We're just pro-profit over at Netflix. His point? Sports media rights, those are so expensive to win. Yeah, if you're ESPN, you got to drop a billion dollars a year just to play a couple NFL games every single week. You got to pay the NFL. Netflix wanted to be profitable, not to have pig skins. But interestingly, Netflix is now doing live sports, and they've chosen a new way to do it, which disrupts the leagues. Instead of paying the leagues billions of dollars for traditional broadcast rights, Netflix is just creating their own games.

Starting point is 00:15:51 That's exactly what they did for this giant record-setting boxing match, right, Jack? This match wasn't sanctioned by the big boxing leagues. Netflix just did it and invited the two fighters to come fight each other. And Netflix didn't pay the World Boxing Association anything. They just paid the two fighters directly 60 million bucks and boom, like got them together to punch each other. And guess what? The best known name in boxing, Mike Tyson, plus one of the best known YouTubers, Jake Paul, that was an entertaining match that millions of people wanted to see. So the way Jack and I see it, this is Netflix's new sports strategy. They're basically creating All-Star Games, like unlimited All-Star Games only on Netflix. Cross-Indistry All-Star

Starting point is 00:16:31 games. They're just exhibitions, but they're entertaining. Yeah, lacrosse is coming next. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Netflix? Netflix has pioneered a new business model, direct to athlete. Yet is this year, Netflix launched the Netflix Open in Las Vegas with Raphael Nadal, but this was not an official tennis match. Last year, Netflix created a golf tournament with F1 racers and pro golfers, but it wasn't sanctioned by either the PGA tour or Formula One. Oh, and this summer, Netflix even created their own hot dog eating contest by going direct to athlete and signing Joey Chestnut to do it.

Starting point is 00:17:10 Nathan's hot dogs was pissed about it. So Netflix, they've been launching live sports their own way over the last couple of years. Netflix is going to top athletes directly without the league's blessings. I mean, Jack, imagine future exhibitions, future All-Star games hosted by Netflix. A father and son, two-on-two basketball game, live on Netflix? Okay, who'd you have on that? LeBron James and his son versus Dennis Rodman and his son. Or Jack, how about this on Netflix?

Starting point is 00:17:37 A pickleball championship between Travis Kelsey and Taylor Swift. How about a home run derby from the deck of the Intrepid in New York City? And a home run's only a home run if you clear the Hudson River. Or Jack, what about full field one-on-one lacrosse Ivy League versus the ACC, Brown versus Duke? We got it. Yeties, the pro leagues, they're doing just fine. In fact, Netflix already paid the NFL to do a couple Christmas football games. But live sports are such a big category that Netflix invented a whole new sports business model.

Starting point is 00:18:08 DTA, direct to out. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to kick off the week? Millennial parents are having only children at double the rate of previous generations. And that generation of only children will have some fascinating economic vibes. For our second story, after soaring in the day's post-election, the stock market came down last week. week with Trump's cabinet picks. As the Trump administration forms, we're going to see less government, more markets. And our third and final story, Netflix streamed the most watched live boxing match in 50 years because it wasn't a $50 pay-per-view. Yeah, Netflix also has a new sports

Starting point is 00:18:47 business model, DTA, direct to athletes. They're basically just doing all-star games all the time. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Disney stock jumped 15% last week after investors gave their movies two thumbs up. Not too shabby. Deadpool and Wolverine and Inside Out were both $1 billion box office wins this summer. Oh, and Jack, this current quarter, Disney's got two more movies coming down the pipeline, don't they, man? Moana 2 drops over Thanksgiving and Lion King's sequel, Mufasa, drops over the holidays. Those could both be billion-dollar films, too. Run out of sequels over there, though. And second, General Mills just acquired its fifth pet food company

Starting point is 00:19:30 That's right, G Mills just bought another one for $1.4 billion. White Bridge Pet Food is now part of the Gmills family. In fact, General Mills is its tolerant. General Mills, they're still making Cheerios and Lucky Charms and Cookie Crisps, but they're kind of making them for your cockapood these days. Can I get a cookie crisp jacket? In the outtakes, Nick. And finally, Dolce and Gabana just created its newest collaboration,

Starting point is 00:19:52 and this one is with Skims. Kim Kardashian, she's everywhere. The apparel brand that she launched, Skims. it is now partnering with one of the ultimate luxury companies out there. And the products in this collab are made of, and I quote, leopard-drenched silk into it, so that you can flaunt your,

Starting point is 00:20:07 and I quote, curves beyond compare with, and I quote, lustworthy details. Kim, we know you're listening. We're both mediums. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by Jack and me

Starting point is 00:20:22 because we had a little more trivia for you. What do San Francisco 49ers, Marilyn Monroe and the Berlin Wall all have in common. There's one product that unites all three of them. And that viral product is the subject of our next episode on the best idea yet, our new weekly show. If you know what that product is or want to guess, drop a comment on YouTube, Instagram, or Spotify.

Starting point is 00:20:47 But if you have no idea what unites all three of them, we will tell you on tomorrow's pod right here on T-Boy. Yiddies, you are looking fantastic to kick off the week, and we say fantastic because you probably just ordered our new T-Boy merch for the holidays. The T-Boy Holiday Collection. It's real and it's fantastic. I'm wearing the hat right now, Jack, I never felt better. So yet he's go to T-boypod.com slash shop and load up because the store is only open for three more days. And Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:21:16 If you know, yeah. Before we go, a happy birthday to one Alice Martel, the legendary literary agent of Midtown Manhattan and my fantastic mom. most wonderful New Yorker I've ever met. And second, a happy birthday to Dave Franzel on the Upper West Side. Get this. He can wrap you a burrito and fight cyber criminals. One with each hand. And Sal Inzarello over New York City is celebrating a birthday while making pizzas and technology at Slight. Happy birthday to the soon-to-be lawyer, Susan Caitlin Coo-Wan. And Saloni Palo over New York is celebrating the best birthday yet. Megan Stanley, happy birthday as he

Starting point is 00:22:02 celebrate down in Ecuador with your boyfriend's family. And Amy Zewikis turning 27 years old in Novi, Michigan. And happy birthday to Ty Dinger in Cambridge, Mass. Just outside Boston. And Kelsey Black, the legendary Yeti, is officially an elected official and young entrepreneur of the year all at once. Kelsey Black is unstoppable. Can't stop her.

Starting point is 00:22:24 She's one of the first orders of our T-Boy holiday merch. We see you, Kelsey. And you're looking fantastic. And a congratulations to our good buddies, Chris and Needs. celebrating a one-year anniversary in California. They had a stunning ceremony in idle wild California last year, and we gave him a shout-out for her. And it was the best wedding year.

Starting point is 00:22:42 To anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Disney and Netflix, and Nick and I both own ETFs of the S&P 500. A baby!

The Best One Yet - 👼 “The Only Child Economy” — Millennials’ parenting impact. Netflix’s All-Star sports strategy. Trump’s cabinet stocks.

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