The Best One Yet - 🔮 “The Predictions Pod” — Apple iToilet, Disney Airlines, and Home Depot Homes.

Episode Date: January 6, 2025

#1. Apple iTush — Apple will launch a smart toilet (aka “iTush”) to expand its push into health.#2. Disney Airlines — Disney will acquire Spirit Airlines to bring its cruise strategy to the skies.#3. Home Depot Homes — Home Depot will sell mail-order homes to fix the housing market.To kick off 2025, we whipped up our 6th annual “3 big business wishes” for the coming year. These aren’t just predictions, they’re wild wishes that if you think about it, make a ton of sense. Predictions sprinkled with razzle dazzle & sprinkle dinkle.Hit us up @tboypod to let us know what you think of these predictions… and to let us know yours.——————————————Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Did my preference is Tush? If you want to go with Tushy, it might be funny if we do both. Well, I think that Tushy's the lower price model, Jack. This is Nick. This is Jack. Welcome back. It is Monday, January 6th. And today's predictions pod is the best one yet this is a T-boy.

Our top three pop business wishes for 2025. Well, Jack, I got to say, you're looking fantastic because you are a whole lot of Tanner over there than two weeks ago. I'm back from Bahamas slash Florida. Nick, you're back from Hawaii. Do people get tan in Hawaii? They do, and I ate more spam than I usually do. I thought pineapples were on Hawaii, not spam.

It's a smoothie obsession you've got. Yeties, this is our first pod of 2025, and it is already the best pod of 2025. Because this is our predictions pod, our three big business wishes for 2025. Jack and I have spent hours at the crystal ball. Jack, what are our three predictions for this year? For our first wish, Disney will acquire Spirit Airlines out of bankruptcy and rebrand it, Disney Air. Disney, they already dominate hospitality on land and on sea. Why not in the sky?

For our second wish, Apple will launch a smart toilet. This will be Apple's eyetush. An Apple smart toilet. Yet is after we tell you why Apple should create a smart toilet, you're going to be shocked they haven't done this yet, honestly. And our third and final wish. Home Depot should begin selling homes. Jack and I got a bold plan for Home Depot to fix the housing market with actual homes. But Yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories, no one's predicting this. No one's wishing for this. Yet he's the number two rule of prediction podcasts. What is it, Nick?

Jack, here's what it is. We got to check ourselves from last year's predictions. So we're dusting off the old whiteboard and we're looking at how we did in last year's predictions. Jack, I'm looking at the numbers right now and last year's predictions went we were one-ish for three. One-ish, like basically one for three. Now, we should point out, we call these wishes because we wish they would happen. And we think that they could happen.

Because there's serious business merit behind each of these wishes we have in this episode. And Jack and I discuss, debate, analyze, and financiify each one of these wishes before we prepare them for this podcast. So think of them more as wishes than predictions. But, yeah. All right, so Jack, let's walk through them.

How did we do last year, one-ish for three? What do we do? We wish that Robin Hood would merge with Twitter. And that didn't happen. Something very different happened to Twitter, while Robin Hood had a major rebound on its own. But overall, the two companies did nothing together,

so that wish was wrong. Now, our second prediction, we wished that Taylor Swift would launch her own ticketing service in 2024. It's me. Hi, Ticketmaster. I'm your problem. It's me. We would have called it Swift Ticks.

And she could have disrupted the feocry by ending outrageous ticket fees. Like the fee fee, but Taylor, she was too busy, so she didn't have time to launch a business and that wish was wrong. Oh, for two. Okay, our third prediction, we wished that Trader Joe's would launch a streaming service. We did. Call it TjTV Plus.

And Jack, that one was kind of right. It was borderline correct. It was pretty close to right. Now, Terry to Joe's didn't launch a streaming service, to be clear. But Chick-fil-A did launch a streaming service. service last year. So our idea was correct. We just picked the wrong food. Yeah, Chick-fil-A. They launched a streaming service. So, well, let's round up. That wish was correct. Let's roll with it, Jack. So that was rule number two of prediction podcasts. Rule number two, look back on your old

predictions. But what's rule number one of predictions? Jack, rule number one of a predictions podcast, there's no such thing as a wrong prediction. It just hasn't happened yet. Jack, let's hit our three business wishes at 2025. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice.

50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first wish of 2025, it's that Disney acquires Spirit Airlines out of bankruptcy and rebrands it, Disney Air. It's the final missing link in Disney's hospitality empire.

Disney Air. Now, yeah, it is Disney the business is many things. It's got more revenue streams than the mighty Mississippi. It's a movie studio. It's a toy company. It's a creative company. And it's a hospitality company. In fact, we've jumped into the earnings.

two-thirds of Disney's profits over the last two years are from their parks and cruises division. It's all about hospitality. And now it's time for Disney to double down on that hospitality by launching an airline. Launching an airline. Now, let's sprinkle on some context, Jack. For the last 25 years,

Disneyland has partnered with Alaska Airlines. And before that, Eastern Airlines was the official airline of Disney World. But funny timing, because Spirit Airlines, based in Florida, Oridda presents a unique buying opportunity specifically for Disney. Because Spirit is in bankruptcy, but they're still operating while they wait for an acquirer. Interestingly, regulators, they won't let Spirit be sold to another airline.

And why is that, Jack? The regulators don't want further consolidation in the already consolidated airline industry. That's why regulators already blocked Spirit from merging with JetBlue. They don't want another airline buying Spirit Airlines. But Disney's not an airline yet. But they did announce. recently, they're planning to double their cruise line, from six vessels to 13 vessels. And we also notice that Disney is spending $48 billion to improve their parks over the next 10 years.

It's all about hospitality. The only thing missing is in the air. And the only part of a Disney vacation that stinks is the flight. With this wish, Disney could own the flight. And it makes sense strategically, financially, you name it, Jack, let's go even deeper. First of all, Disney Airlines would cost next to nothing for Disney to launch. Great point. Spirit, they're in bankruptcy. Disney is worth $200 billion. Disney Airlines would have hubs in Orlando, Los Angeles, and wherever there's a Disney Park.

And Jack, how would you envision the terminal gates for Disney Airlines? It'd be like a mini theme park. Yeah, I would. I'd get to the airport six hours early. Yeah. After TSA, Goofy would give you a pat down. Oh, boy, I found a peanut butter in your pocket. Whoa, boy, boy, you can keep going.

The whole plane during the flight would watch the same Disney movie, No headsets needed. It'd be like a school trip back when you were taking the yellow bus. Oh, and every lavatory would include wet wipes and diapers. And the flight crew, they would be in character, right? Are you prepared in the event of an emergency? Hey, thinkerbell, I'll take another bloody merry. With Disney Airlines, instead of parents dreading the flight to Orlando, the flight to Orlando would be part of the Disney experience. And because of what Jack just said, you would pay a premium for those tickets, and what does that mean? Disney Air.

could be the most profitable airline in the industry. Non-parents, they wouldn't fly Disney Airlines, would that? Which would be great, because you'd no longer get dirty looks from the annoyed adult who has to sit next to a crying baby. Everyone on the plane would get it. And that's why we wish upon a star for this. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Disney? Wall Street doesn't love airlines, but they do love credit cards. Now, yeah, it is, if you tell your Uncle Bob about this idea, he might say it's a

bad idea. Like airlines, he's going to say, they're a bad, unprofitable business. He's got a point. Airlines historically struggled to profit. They often end up bankrupt like spirit or bailed out like every airline has been several times. But you know what the most profitable part of air travel actually is? It's actually airline credit cards. If Disney launches Disney Airlines, it would have the Disney Air Magic card to go along with it. Interestingly, Delta, they made $7 billion. from their Amex credit card in 2023. The credit card is the most profitable part of Delta's business. And Disney could benefit the same exact way. Totally. They'd earn even more financial loyalty from Disney families. So besties, Wall Street doesn't love airlines, but Wall Street does love

credit cards. Disney buying Spirit Airlines to launch Disney Airlines with a credit card, I'm wishing upon a star neck, and I think it's happening. Or our second wish. It's that Apple launches a smart toilet in 2025. We call it the I-Tush. The I-Tush. Yet he's, after you hear the story on the I-Tush, you'll be shocked Apple hasn't launched it already. It makes too much sense. Trust us on this. If you work at Apple, comment after this story. Besties, the greatest tech disappointment of the last decade. What is it, Jack? The Apple car. We never got the ISUV. And the second greatest tech disappointment of the last decade. What is it, Jack? The Apple Vision Pro. I've seen one person wearing it, and he looked ridiculous. Well, over the last 10 years, Apple has spent billions searching for the next

big thing only to come up empty. On the other hand, Apple has been thriving in one surprising category. Yes, it has. Health. Health. The iPhone knows if you fall. Air pods can act as a hearing aid, and your Apple watch, Jack, you got one of those. It measures my sleep. It measures my wife's fertility. It measures all sorts of bodily things all day. In fact, Apple's CEO, Tim Cook, had this big line about health back in 2019. I almost forgot about this. He said that Apple's greatest contribution to mankind will be about health. That's why we don't call him CEO cook. We call him Dr. Cook. And it's not just Apple interested in health. Amazon acquired one medical, Google acquired Fitbit. And Silicon Valley has basically gone off to med school. Or nursing school. Both. So best

These add all that up, and we think Apple's next big product should actually be a smart toilet. An eyewish. An eyewish. A tech-enabled toilet that samples your waist for critical health information. And your stool is its sample. Your duty is its data. It can measure your blood sugar level, your cardiovascular situation, whether you have COVID or not. It can even be an early predictor of cancer all with a toilet through your waist.

All that currently exists in the smart toilet market. Apple should launch one too. And here's why it's perfect for Apple. Product design. Totally, Jack. I can picture a white porcelain, elegant toilet sitting in the Apple store right now. Johnny Ive would be all over this, Jeff.

Literally, literally. Like, a simple, smooth, clean toilet, it is a literal throne upon which Apple would be a design king. Think about it from a pricing perspective. The smart toilet market is premium and it's growing. It is. The average price is $6,000 for one of these smart toilets, and it's currently growing at 10% a year.

So the same customer willing to pay $2,000 for a MacBook and $600 for an Apple Watch would gladly pay $6,000 for an iTunes. All right, now, Jack, let's look at the market because the current smart toilet industry is pretty fragmented. Apple, the brand, would immediately stand out from the rest. In fact, there are more toilets in America than there are cars, so it's actually a bigger market than you realize. But when it comes to tech, they're always thinking about metrics. They love engagement. What is more engaging than a toilet? We discovered that the average American visits a toilet six to ten times a day.

I mean, if you're fewer or more than that, you might want to call your doctor. That is consistent, reliable engagement. Perhaps most wild about this is the sanitary benefits. True, because Apple would probably add a basic iPad to manage the whole bidet feature. And that iPad would allow you to keep your phone out of the bathroom. That'd be a huge reduction in germs in our society. In fact, according to... Science, your butt shape is unique to you, just like your face is unique to you and your thumbprint

is unique to you. It's called your butt print. It's actually called an anal print, Jack, but we can go with butt print too. So when you sit down on the toilet, it unlocks because it recognizes you. Just like Apple has face ID, they could apply the same technology to your butt ID. Add it all up. It's actually surprising they haven't already launched the eye toilet. Also, Jack, what's the one word that Apple has built its whole brand around that begins with P. Privacy. And what do you ask for when you go to the bathroom? Privacy. I'll tell you, I would never entrust my one and two data to any tech company except Apple. Amazon would somehow end upselling you on toilet paper.

So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Apple? Apple should launch the iTunes because it would go where the competition. isn't. Yeties, since the pandemic, Big Tech has been battling for your home. Every big tech company wants a role in your living room, your kitchen, or your bedroom. Every tech company has smart TV, smart speakers, and smart home devices. But interestingly, we noticed that there's one market where no big tech company is gone. Actually, it's one room where no big tech company is gone. The bathroom. Apple would be the first mover in the one tech-free home in your house. And by total chance, the bathroom, the bathroom is also the room with the most valuable data, your waste health data.

Yeties, the best market to enter is the one where there's no competition. And that's why we think in 2025 Apple should launch the I-Tush. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final wish of 2025, it's that Home Depot should begin selling actual homes. Here is a bold plan for Home Depot to help fix the American housing market. To fix the housing crisis. But yet it is to really start this story, Jack and I want to go all the way back to 1908. That's when Sears began selling homes. True story.

Sears had a product called the mail order home back in 1908. They called it a kit house because the house arrived in a train car with 30,000 pieces inside. Oh, you thought your IKEA dresser was hard? This home kit included assembly for a 2,000 square foot house. It included the installation, the doors, even the doorknobs were included in the Sears mail-order home. Now, the promise was that you and a carpenter could build this house in just 90 days. And here was the key. The house was manufactured in a factory with an assembly line, just like the Ford Model T, which let the costs come down. So Sears, they actually sold 75,000 of these mail-order homes just a century ago.

until the Great Depression forced that business line to stop. Now, best is Sears is gone. But there is another big box store that we think should begin selling kit homes again. And that store is the Home Depot. Why? I mean, home is in their name. First of all. The branding, boom, done.

But the bigger reason is that America has a housing crisis. It's true. For the last 30 years, we've had more population growth than new home growth. And that's why prices of homes and apartments are so freaking. and high. Demand has simply outpaced supply for 30 years. And now to solve this, picture the Home Depot garden section or local Home Depot, but with a single family home in the corner. And Home Depot should make this home cool. Yes, they should bring some brand cachet and make it exciting. Okay, what do you think? What kind of thing could they do, Jack? A Martha Stewart collaboration

to handle the interior design decisions. Or Jack, if you pay a premium, maybe an Apple-E-Tushy toilet comes in the home too. That's an upcharge. But yet he's at the Home Depot. there'd be a constant open house so you could walk in and check out this kit house. In fact, on a policy perspective, Home Depot could cut a deal with the Trump administration. They could slash regulations that have blown up the cost and time necessary

to build a house. Bessie's Jack and I jumped in T-boy style. We did the math on this. If all 2,000 Home Depot locations sell 1,000 homes each, then what does that mean? That's 2 million new homes for America, which would cut our housing deficit in half. It would cut it in half.

That is a big enough change to relieve home prices which have accelerated to all-time highs. The only reason we still have inflation is because the price of housing continues to rise. Housing, it's the number one source of inflation, and Home Depot can fix it. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddy is over at the Home Depot? It takes a village to build a village. But Nick, the villagers would be future customers. Yeties, we're not saying that the burden of solving America's entire housing crisis should be out of one single company.

First of all, we're calling it an opportunity, not a burden. We are. But we're also calling on three companies to step up. And the first is Home Depot. They would provide the lumber, the materials, and assemble the home kit, and also provide instructions. The second company would be J.P. Morgan Chase. The biggest bank in America should partner to provide mortgage financing.

And finally, we want to include Walmart. Biggest retailer in America can step in for home furnishings. And Sebastian's, why do we call this? an opportunity? Because each American who buys a home from Home Depot becomes a customer of the Home Depot, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Walmart for life. Picture this. Mortgage repayments to J.P. Morgan should earn points. And then those points could be redeemable at Walmart and Home Depot. Fasties, a hundred years ago, Sears managed to sell and finance homes all by themselves. Well, today, our three most powerful big box stores and banks surely could pull off the same thing.

Takes a village to build a village and the villagers will be your future customers. Yes, they will. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for our 2025 predictions pod? Disney should acquire Spirit Airlines and rebrand it Disney Airlines. Disney Airlines because Wall Street doesn't like airlines, but Wall Street loves credit cards, especially a Disney credit card. For our second story, it's Apple. Apple should launch a smart toy.

toilet and branded the i-tush. The eye-booty because Apple should go where no competition is gone before. The bathroom. That's where the health data is. And our third and final story was the Home Depot. Home Depot should start selling homes to solve the housing crisis. Yes, they should. J.P. Morgan provides financing and Walmart provides furniture. It takes a village to build a village and those villagers become customers. Now time for the best fact yet. This one predicted by Nick and Jack because it it's all about predictions. Speaking of predictions, that's a topic that Wall Street publishes every single year. Oh, Jack, there is nothing investors appreciate more than a good old-fashioned stock market prediction. And at the beginning of every year, financial analysts predict

where the NASDAQ, the Dow, and the S&P 500 will end up at the end of the year. But here's our big question as we look back on the data. How accurate actually are these stock market predictions? They're highly inaccurate. In fact. fact, besties, get this, on average, stock market forecasts are wrong, really wrong. In fact, so wrong, we got the numbers. According to the New York Times, over the last 20 years, the median Wall Street forecast for the S&P 500 was off by 14 percentage points. It was off by 14 percentage points. Like, in 2022, the average forecast was that stocks would rise 4%. Stocks actually fell 19%. In 2023, they forecast that stocks would rise 6%. But stocks rose 22%. But stocks rose 22%.

And this is wild, but in 2024, J.P. Morgan predicted that markets would actually go down. In 2024, markets soared by 25%. So besties, whatever stock market prediction you hear right now is probably wrong. Even our predictions in this episode, they're probably wrong. But wouldn't it be awesome if they were right? Yes, it would, Jack. That's why we call them wishes. Yeties, you look fantastic to start the new year. And if Jack and I have any wish for you, it's that you will share this 2025 predictions pod. If you've never shared our show before, this is the episode to share. So here's what you do.

Take the link to this episode and text it to your best friend. Text it to your best buddies out there. And then let us know what you think of these predictions. Like, is Apple going to launch the I-Tushy? Is Home Depot going to solve the housing market? Disney Airlines, would you fly on that? Drop us a comment right now on YouTube, Spotify, or on Instagram. Also, we want to hear your predictions. What do you think Snapchat's going to do? What's going to happen with AI? Sam Altman,

is he still going to be everywhere next year? So, besties, we are pumped to start 2025 with you. Jack, so excited to be back with you. Should we make our regular podcast tomorrow and go back to our routine? Tomorrow's episode will be the best one yet. The top three pop business news stories you need to know. Yiddies, it's going to be a tea boy. We'll see you there. Bright and early. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon and Disney. Nick own stock of Delta. And we both phone stock of Apple and Robin Hood, as well as ETFs of the S&P 500. I'd tell you, Molly, just says, I work in entertainment now because

podcasts got such mixed reactions, including, like, are you supporting him? She's like, if I say you work in entertainment, people think you make a lot of money. If I say you work in podcasting, people don't think you make any money.