The Best One Yet - 🔮 “The Predictions Pod” — Our 3 big business wishes for 2024

Episode Date: January 8, 2024

#1. Robinhood should merge… with X — Democratize Finance For All with the first true super app.#2. Trader Joe’s should launch a streaming service: TJTV — Because every company is now a media company.#3. Taylor Swift should launch her own ticketing service — “SwifTix” is the best option to take down the TicketMaster monopoly. And she’ll do it as a nonprofit.To kick off 2024, we whipped up our 5th annual “3 big business wishes” for the coming year. These aren’t just predictions, they’re wild wishes that if you think about it, make a ton of sense. Predictions sprinkled with razzle dazzle & sprinkle dinkle.Hit us up @tboypod to let us know what you think of these predictions… and to let us know yours.Hey 2024, if ya know ya know.$HOOD $LNSubscribe to our newsletter: tboypod.com/newsletterWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on Youtube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Actually, Jack, no, I watched last year's predictions episodes. Like, I rewatched it before this. Do you remember what you were wearing last year? Not at all. You were wearing that turtleneck you got for Christmas. Remember that? I do remember that turtleneck. There was a lot of real estate on that turtleneck.

I know. Whenever I was nervous or shy, I just ducked my head inside it. I was like, well, is it a turtle neck more a tortoise neck? Take my eyes, but not my turtleneck sweater. All right, here we go. Let's hit the show. Three, two. This is Nick. This is Jack.

It's Monday, January 8th, and today's predictions pod is the best one yet. It is a T-boy, Jack. We see signs that this episode is the best one yet. Grab a crystal ball and dust off your Merlin robe, Jack. Here are Nick's and my three business wishes for 2024. And we love these wishes. This is an annual tradition. I think it's the fifth year in a row we've done this.

Mark your calendar, Nostradamus. Jack, first wish for today's show. What do we got, man? For our first business wish of the year, it's that Robin Hood would merge with Twitter. Yeties, Robin Hood and X are the business love affair of 2024. For our second wish, it's that Trader Joe's would launch their very own streaming service, TJTV. TjTV Plus, because every company is a media company. Even a grocery chain.

Even TJs. And our third and final wish. It's that Taylor Swift would launch her very own ticketing service, in 2024. It's me. Hi, Ticketmaster. I'm your problem. It's me.

You're now that execution. Stuck to landing. But besties, before we hit that wonderful mix of wishes for this bonus pod. What mix of predictions, Jack? Nick, when it comes to prediction podcast, what's rule number two? I'm so glad you asked, Jack. The number two rule of prediction podcast is we got to check ourselves from last year. Right.

You can't make predictions this year unless... Unless you revisit predictions. from last year. So Nick and I are going to dust off the old whiteboard and check how we did last year. Jack, I'm checking the numbers here. And we were one for three, like one-ish for three. Yes.

Last year, we wished that Budweiser would launch a chain of non-alcoholic bars. We wish for the first bar chain of zero alcoholic drinks. Now, Budweiser did get a lot of attention last year. But it wasn't for the first ever chain of sober bars. No, it was. Our second wish from last year,

we wished that Amazon would launch Amazon land, a theme park of Amazon products. An amusement park for everything owned by Amazon. There would be palm scanning turnstiles. They would be Lord of the Rings rides. Prime members would get to cut the line for the roller coaster for free. Hey Alexa, one-order of cotton candy for the family. But sadly, Amazon land didn't happen.

And sadly, neither did Amazon world. I hope we got the third one, right? Yeah, me too. From last year, we wished that Nike would acquire Major League pickleball. Any sports industry is getting disrupted, so Nike. you should go grab a paddle. Now, Nike did launch a pickleball powered merch line. Yes, they did. With shoes and rackets and more. But they did not buy the entire professional pickleball league. So sadly, last year, we went one-ish for three on our big bald business wishes.

Jack, let's just round up on this one, man. 333, you'd get into the Hall of Fame in baseball. We'll take it. All right, so Nick, that's rule number two for prediction pods. What's rule number one for prediction pods? Jack, rule number one of prediction podcasts, there's no such thing as a wrong prediction. It just hasn't happened yet. Jack, let's hit our three big business wishes. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea that caused a cultural storm.

It's the best one yet, but that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know you know because we're ready to go, we can't wait to go. no more, so just start the show. Start the show. For our first big business wish of 2024,

it's that Robin Hood merges with Twitter. Call it Robin Hood X. Robin Hood X. If Elon wants X to become a true super app, he should merge it with Robin Hood. Yeties, if you got him to know Jack and me, you know that we're fans of classical literature. Jack, can you grab some old Billy S off the shelf for us?

What is in a name by William Shakespeare? Fantastic. For Twitter, apparently everything isn't a name because last year, Elon Musk changed Twitter's name. Shortly after buying Twitter, Elon changed the name to X because he said it was becoming a different company. He said Twitter isn't a social media app anymore. Twitter is the everything app. One app to rule them all. Thank you, Frodo.

And Jack, can you sprinkle on some context of what exactly is a super app? How would you describe it? It's an app that does everything. You can view videos. You can swipe right to date somebody. You can make a phone call, you can place a job application, and you can bank all in one super app. If so fact, or what we're saying yet, he says that Elon wants X to replace YouTube and Tinder and FaceTime and LinkedIn and even JP Morgan Chase to become the Everything app.

That's quite an ambition. No one has pulled off in Everything app in the United States before. Now, Jack, I am checking X right now and I can do messages. I can do video. Those are kind of super-ish, but... But that's about it. Right. on the other hand, that would give X finance. And that is a huge category. Which leads to our wish. Elon Musk and Vlad Tenev should merge X and Robin Hood to fulfill both of their company's visions.

Sit down, stand up and squeeze that into 140 characters. Full disclosure, Yeties. Jack and I sold our last company to Robin Hood. And we do own stock in Robin Hood. We've told you that before. They were once our sponsor and we still use the product today. Is that the end of the disclosure? I think that's the full full disclosure.

But yet he's Jack and I, we don't just throw out acquisition ideas lightly. Like, Jack and I vet these ideas, and we only choose the ones that we're excited about and confident in. And here's our vetting of Robin Hood Plus X. Well, the way we see it, both companies are worth about the same amount. Robin Hood and X are both worth about $11 billion. So this would be a merger of equals. And both Robin Hood and X have brands that have taken a bit of a hit the last couple of years. So again, kind of a merger of equals.

For Robin Hood, we think this deal could help it accomplish its business. big mission to democratize finance furrow. Because since its 2021 IPO, the number of users at Robin Hood has actually declined. So merging with X could actually provide Robin Hood with its next wave of growth. It'd be a sale to scale. Sale to scale, baby. Merge to get huge. X's 300 million monthly active users could sign up for a Robin Hood brokerage account with little friction if the two entities merged. X users would just have to verify their identification and then they could get Robin Hood's spending account, their brokerage account, their retirement account, their crypto account. I mean, Jack, a couple product launches later and you can get peer to peer payments,

boom, I'm sending you 10 bucks through my X handle. With just my Twitter handle. Yeah, yet he's added all up. And together, Robin Hood and X would be the true super app democratizing finance for all. That's right. The richest man on earth partnering with a company called Robin Hood actually makes a ton of sense if you think about it. You know, Jack, it's that little sprinkle and irony that makes me kind of love this even more. So Jack wants the takeaway for our buddies over at Robin Hood and X. A successful merger must follow the three Cs. Jack and I have told you before that a majority of acquisitions fail.

In order to succeed, we think they must satisfy the three Cs. The first C is culture. At the heart of every company is people. So if the people don't mix well, the companies won't either. Well, X and Robin Hood are both Bay Area tech companies and both have big change the world aspirations. Second C is complementary. Deals don't work if the companies do the same or opposite things. The things they do must complement each other. Well, Robin Hood is a great core product in search of growth. And X is a great core product in search of engagement. And the final C is cash.

Cash. The deal must be financially viable for both sides. So Yeti's the way Jack and I see it, based on the three C's framework, this merger could work. Our first big business business, we're going to business wish of 2024? It's that X merges with Robin Hood. For our second big business wish at 2024, it's TJTV, Trader Joe's streaming channel. We think Trader Joe should launch a streaming service because every company is a media company. Jack, last year, pretty interesting. We actually covered Trader Joe's just one time. Do you remember the story, man? It was exactly one year ago. When Trader Joe's unveiled their Hall of Fame. Jack and I noticed that Trader Joe's is the only grocery store with a hall of fame for food.

Because they don't have customers. They have fans at Trader Joe's. And great brands don't have customers. Great brands have fans. And for 55 years, Trader Joe's has had fans because of their unique business model of grocery. The average grocery store stocks 40,000 items. But Trader Joe's grocery stores stock only 4,000 items. There's one-tenth as many options at Trader Joe's. And that's actually a good thing, because you don't have to think as a customer. Instead of optionality, Trader Joe's focus is curating the best. And then

slapping their seal of approval on the product so that customers just buy them. So that's why Jack and I were brainstorming this pod and we think the next step in Trader Joe's brand journey? It's a media arm to feed customers Trader Joe's content. Hey, Trader

Joe, put down your apron, pick up a camera. It's time to launch a streaming network. All right, Jack, a Trader Joe's streaming service. All right, let's talk this out. What kind of a name we think the service is going to have. We got to start with the name. I like TJTV Plus. I like that a lot. T.J.T.T.V. Plus. Or just Trader Joe's plus works, too. What about soy chorizo max? For the spicy vegans in the audience. You know, you know. Yet he's the way we see it. Trader Joe's could rethink its deep

roster of food as content. Yeah. The dark chocolate honeymints, which only have three ingredients, by the way. That's the talent. Yeah. Get those mince and aging at U.T.M. Nick and I brainstormed enough content to fill 24 hours for this streaming network. For example, Trader Joe's streaming service could have cooking shows. Bobby Flay whips up a Thanksgiving dinner using only Trader Joe's products. Oh, Jack, picture of Barefoot Contested grabbing some T.J. Banana Fritters and doing them from her home. How about the dating show, Nick?

Oh, I like the dating show idea. Here's what this is. A connection based on shared love of Mandarin orange chicken. My favorite is a college game day style road show. Jack, each week, Trader Joe's could set up a studio in different Trader Joe's grocery stores. College Game Day visits Ann Arbor for the football game. Trader Joe's visits Ann Arbor to set up lights and cameras in the local Trader Joe's for an episode. Boom, stick a stage in Isle 6. You got yourself a set right there. That would be exciting.

Remember the Trader Joe's in Union Square, like right near our old apartment in Manhattan? East 14th Street. We went there many times. Okay, they could be having cookoffs to make the vegan kale cashew dip and then broadcast that cookoff worldwide on their streaming channel. And all those East Village post-college kids would be cheering in the audience. But yet, he's, that's not all. Because Jack and I also envision Trader Joe's scripted narrative shows. A murder mystery.

Who ate the cauliflower crust pizza? Oh, Jack, what about a coming-of-age drama on a self-conscious bagel who smells like everything? Everything but the bagel. Mom, they're picking on me because of the onions. Jack, that's got franchisor and all over it. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Trader Joe's TJ Plus streaming service? Every company is now a media company. Yeah, these, Jack and I have noticed a theme in the last year of non-media companies pivoting hard into media.

Over the holidays, Walmart launched a holiday drama TV show about shopping at Walmart. Mattel's Barbie movie was the biggest film of the entire year. Even NASA, America's Space Agency launched a streaming network last year. So we wish that Trader Joe's would launch TJTV, a streaming service in 2024. Treat those peanut butter filled pretzel nuggets like the stars they are. Oh, I know you love them, Jack. Because every company is a media company. Even Trader Joe's grocery store.

For our third and final business wish of 2024, it's Swift Ticks. Taylor Swift Swift should launch a Ticketmaster competitor. Swift Ticks could be the not-for-profit ticket. to ending the feocrycy. Jack, whip out the calendars here. November 17th, 2020, a dark day for America. We published an episode of this pod

with one of our favorite titles we've ever done. It's not me. Hi, I'm not the problem. It's Ticketmaster. Because just over one year ago, Ticketmaster biblically botched the pre-sales event of the Taylor Swift Erez tour. Great use of the word bivocally, by the way, Jack.

Yet, he's in the meantime. Taylor put on the top. top grossing tour of all time. She won time person of the year and she found true love. Our wish is that Taylor now enters a new era, her monopoly busting antitrust era. Taylor Swift, you got to launch your own ticketing service in 2024. And you got to call it Swift Ticks. It's me. Hi, Ticketmaster. I'm your problem. It's me. Because best news ever since Live Nation acquired Ticketmaster in 2010,

It's known to have a monopoly on U.S. live ticket sales. And, Jack, let's whip out the econ textbooks here. What do monopolies do when they face zero competition, Jack? They charge us fees. Jack, I see the service fee, the printing fee, the convenience fee, the ticket fee, and the fee fee fee fee. The dreaded fee fee fee. We've all paid them. We've all hated them. But we've all had no choice because it's ticket master.

A fee fee? I got to speak to a manager about this one. Besties. Live Nation owns a whole bunch of concert venues and the dominant team. ticketing service, Ticketmaster. And that's why, by one estimate, after Live Nation takes its cut out of your ticket and its fees out of your ticket, musicians only take home 30%. Only 30%. I mean, Jack, you can't shake that off, can you, man? Now, Taylor has still profited handsomely despite those fees by giving the musical world her heiress tour. So we think she's ready to not profit by fixing the broken ticket industry. With swift tics. The first real rival in the ticket

industry to Ticketmaster. Taylor, that is a blank space business opportunity if we've ever seen one. So Jack, can you strap on some glitzy leggings and whip up the takeaway for our buddy, Taylor Swift? For profit companies disrupt. Not for profit companies can revolutionize. Yeah, it is the way Jack and I see it, only Taylor has the sway and the leverage in the entertainment world right now to disrupt a giant like live nation. Her next concert tour would be the first one to use Swift Ticks instead of Ticketmaster. With Taylor's brand equity and lower fees, we think every musician would use Swift Ticks over Ticketmaster.

But to truly leave her mark on the music world, we think Swift Ticks will have a not-for-profit mission. It could be set up like Patagonia, the apparel company. The business can run for profit, but the ownership would be a non-for-profit organization. And Swift Tix's not-for-profit mission would be to eliminate fees for fans, pay musicians more of the cut, and eliminate scalping of tickets. Because, Jack, those are the three issues that have plagued the whole music industry for like decades now. And only Taylor, and only right now.

Yes. Does she have the charisma to fix it? Taylor could be the anti-hero that the industry needs. Her for-profit company, Swift Dix, will disrupt Ticketmaster. And then her non-for-profit mission will revolutionize live music. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways or the wishes? Actually, the takeaways and the wishes for 2024. Our first big business wish is that Robin Hood should merge with X.

To truly democratize finance for all and create a super app. Our second big business wish is that Trader Joe's would launch a streaming network, TJTV. TjTV Plus, because today, every company is really a media company. And our third and final wish of 2024 is that Taylor Swift launch Swift Ticks, the first real rival to Ticketmaster. For-profit companies disrupt, not-for-profit companies. companies can revolutionize.

But besties, this pod's not over yet. Oh, what else we got, Jack? Here's our three other bonus predictions that we whipped up for 2024. First, Jack and I wish that the NBA would sell their next TV deal to Netflix. The NBA has younger and more international fans than all the other sports leagues, and all those fans are on Netflix. And Netflix would get premium content to win over a new batch of streaming holdouts. Our second bonus wish, we wish that TikTok would open up an influencer museum in New York City.

A TikTok influencer museum. Here's how it goes. TikTok would put creators and the internet culture that they're famous for on a pedestal, literally. And they would win some brownie points from U.S. politicians and the U.S. public. And our third and final bonus business wish of 2024, it's that Costco would launch a car. Let's call it the Kirkland car. That's right. Ford and Costco could.

launch the Model C. It's not a collaboration, it's a car elaboration. Now time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by Jack and me as we were gazing into our crystal ball to come up with this bonus pod. Funny thing about gazing into crystal balls and making predictions. They're not typically correct, are they, Jack? No, especially Wall Street stock market predictions. It is at the beginning of every year, financial analysts love to make predictions about the stock market. forecast where the stocks will end by the end of the year. But Jack, here's the question. How accurate are these Wall Street stock market predictions typically? On average, they're wrong. They're very wrong. Yes. They're shockingly wrong on average. Get this yeties. According to the New York Times,

over the past 20 years, the median Wall Street stock forecast was off by 14 percentage points. For example, in 2022, Wall Street analysts forecast the S&P 500 to rise by 4%. And how did stocks actually do, Jack? They fell by 19%. Let's do another one. Okay, last year, Wall Street analysts forecast that stocks would rise 6%. But stocks rose by 22%. Like we said, Yet is stock market forecast not typically that accurate. They're way off. So whatever stock market prediction you hear right now, it's probably, odds are, statistically speaking, incorrect. Very incorrect. Yeties, that is our big prediction podcast. for 2024. Jack, you're looking fantastic. And I think by the end of the year, you will still look

fantastic. I'm wearing my turtleneck tomorrow, just for you. There's so much room in there. I can fit in that turtleneck with you. I can't wait. But besties, we really hope you like this episode. Today in particular, we would love to hear what you think by hitting us up at T-BoyPod on Instagram. Let us know what you think of our three big business wishes. And we want to hear your predictions for this year, too. Hit us up at T-boy Pod, and Nick and I will see it tomorrow. And never forget the number one rule of prediction podcast. No prediction is ever wrong. It just hasn't happened.

Yet. Jack and I will see you later this year. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon, Netflix and Ford, and Nick and I both own stock of Robin Hood, and ETFs of the S&P 500. Wait, what's the pink collar underneath? It's just another pink shirt. You see that? I was jealous.

It was funny. I was so much. Abercrombie and Fitch actually. Is it really? Oh, that's great. Yeah. I thought I smelled something. Cologne?

Yeah. Smells like nine abs. Yeah.