The Best One Yet - 🍷 “This better include a pre-nup” — Tinder’s $500/mo plan. China’s population problem. Mill’s trash innovation.

Episode Date: January 18, 2023

Match has a dating app problem: Half of its core Millennial users are married — So its solution is $500/month for Tinder++. For the first time in 60 years, China’s population fell last year, which transforms its economy from inevitable to unenviable. And Mill launched the newest Silicon Valley-backed smart home product… but it’s your trash.$MTCH $GOOGFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on YoutubeWant a Shoutout on the pod? Fill out this formGot the Best Fact Yet? We got a form for that tooLearn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

I'm wearing orange again, by the way. This is a different orange sweatshirt than last week or than yesterday. I'm impressed you of different shades. I had two burnt orange sweatshirts. You did? I don't know what. Different levels of burn. Not to close the fire on that one.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Wednesday, January 18th. And today's pod is the best one yet. It's a total T-boy. It's a T-boy, Nicholas. It's a T-boy, Jack. What's our first story for the best pod that you and I have ever produced?

Tinder is testing a new version of premium Tinder for $500 a month. Jackie just can't put a price on love. They just did, though. Actually, you can. I fairly can't. $500 a month, apparently. You've got to pay for love.

For our second story, for the first time in 60 years, China's population declined last year. To quote George Costanza twice, they've got a double-dipping shrinkage problem. And our third and final story is the founders of Nest Smart Thermostat. They just launched a new startup called The Mill. Called the Mill, because at the bottom of that, Every trash can is a pile of innovation.

But Yeties, before we hit that fantastic mix. Honestly, a fantastic mix. I love this mix, Jack. Twitter is for sale again. Uh-huh. The company, though, is not for sale. But the stuff inside the company is for sale. Get this, Yeties.

Twitter is auctioning off the physical stuff from within Twitter headquarters. Because first, Elon downsized the company to save money. So now he's downsizing the company to make some extra money. So basically Twitter is hosting a big tech garage sale. That's what's happening. This feels like an episode of Antiques Roadshow, Silicon Valley episode. Fiona, what's on the auction block today? What do we got?

Twitter is not selling off porcelain dolls or turn-of-the-century Victorian chairs. No, no, no, no, no, no. Twitter is selling off the old desks and like they used whiteboards. Bring them out. But also the quirky gear that makes a startup office a startup office. Yeah, for example, Twitter is auctioning off the Twitter espresso machine or the Twitter Keggerator. Twitter is auctioning off stationary bikes that charge

your phone while you paddle. Oh, that stuff's good, but that's not great. The best stuff in the auction? That's in lot number 11. The OG Twitter Bird light electrical display sign is for sale. We're talking a human-sized statue of the Twitter logo. That could be yours in your

living room. Bids are starting at $5,000. Do I got $5,420? Do I add $6,900? Do I have $6,900 and $420? Sold to the man in the slam and salmon. and sweater. Let's get our three stories. Because in great relationships, in love and in business, you age together. Okay, yeties, first of all, if you're going on a date tonight, actually, if you're going on a date tonight, more power to you, Wednesday night. That's a great day night.

But there are a few ways to impress your day. Order eggs. Order eggs are so expensive these days. Like, order an omelet at brunch and you're going to win this date. Make it a four egg omelet. Honestly, the frittata flex. That's the new thing in dating. But 2022 was like a bad breakup year for match group. It really was. This. Stock of Match, the powerful dating app, it fell 60% because dating app growth, it's kind of slowed down. But yesterday's shares rebounded. They did. Because Hinge, one of Match Group's dating apps, is testing out a $60 a month super subscription.

I'm sorry, Jack. Can you please repeat that number? $60 a month. $60 a month. Carry the one, add the nine. That is $720 a year for you to increase your odds of meeting Mr. or Ms. Wright. Upgrading to Hinge Supremium is like dropping a V8. engine into the chassis of your love life.

You hear those engines? You hear those motors? You hear those pistons, man? Now, with the subscription, you're going to have a higher chance of your profile being seen by other daters. You're going to get better recommendations and some other dating perks. Now, Yeties, Jack and I saw that number. We were like, that's expensive. But then we saw this. Tinder, which is also owned by Match Group as well. Tinder is testing an even more insane premium subscription. Jack, what is that? that new supreme subscription price for Tinder. 500 bucks a month.

500 bucks a month. Match just confirmed that they are offering Cupid a love canon for $6,000 a year, people. 500 bucks a month is like rent. That is like rent. For that price, they should physically swipe you on the app. Check, that price should come with a built-in pre-up. That is what Match is actually doing here is kind of like a dating situation, actually. Yeah, Bessie.

The way Jack and I see this, this is kind of like a date because Match is trying to figure out how much money you make. Last year, we did a story about Match Group. We noticed people are paying more on dates and they're also paying more to date. Right, because Match added 200,000 paying users in 2022. That was a big jump. In a year that Netflix lost subscribers, Tinder gained subscribers. That was impressive. And Jack, what did we say the reason was for this jump in paying subscribers for Match and Tinder and Hinge?

The most important investment of your life is your life partner. So you're going to pay to find the right one. I mean, Yetis, you're spending 15 bucks to watch five hours of Netflix. You can spend $15 a month to find the person you'll spend the rest of your life with. So last year, Match figured out that you are willing to pay for a premium dating app. Now it wants to know how much you're willing to pay. It is testing your willingness to pay. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our Lovebird Cupid Cannon Buddies over at Match?

Match's core demographic, millennials are aging out of the app. Okay, Yeti's Jack and I were covering this story. And then we realize there is a fundamental problem facing Match right now. Millennials are entering their 40s. They're growing up and half of millennials in America are already married. If so facto, Match's original core customer is literally aging out of the app, no longer eligible. So Match isn't just pivoting to the younger Gen Z. It is also targeting the millennials that has left.

Match is now targeting your mid-30s millennials, who've been dating on dating apps for years, who've been groomsmen, but not the groom for years. That specific demo doesn't want to waste time on bad dates, so they have higher motivation. And that specific demo is more senior at work, so they've got higher income. Combine higher motivation with higher spending power, and you get $500 a month Tinder premium. Yet these customers, they don't stay the same age, so Match, it can't stay the same age either. Match realized it needs to grow with its audience. For our second story, for the first time in Jack's in my lifetimes.

Actually, for the first time in 60 years, China's population is falling. And the economic narrative on China has done a complete 180. But Jack, before we jump to the story, what would you say the most important made-in-China product is right now? Any one of the electronics that are powering this podcast? Okay, so you'd say iPhone, you'd think bassinet, maybe some jocet. Maybe some jaggings out there. Yeties, no, no, no, no, no. What is the most important made-in-China product right now?

It's the GDP report that we just got on Monday. Yeties, on Monday, Chinese officials announced current data about the Chinese economy. The old GDP. The old GDP, the size of China's economy as measured by all the goods and services produced. And Jack, how was that GDP number for China? GDP was flat in the fourth quarter of 2022. The full year of 2022, growth was just three percent. in China. That is the lowest economic growth in China since 1976 if you exclude the one pandemic year of 2020.

Okay, Bessie's most of the world has moved on from COVID. They're not being held back by COVID. But China's zero COVID policy has backfired. Exactly. Right now, China has way more infections and way more COVID deaths than it ever did at any point of the pandemic. Now, that first number, the GDP number. What do we think about that number, Jack? That's current data. It tells us, about today's economy in China right now. But Jack, that wasn't the only number that China told us, was it? They also announced a leading indicator

about tomorrow's economy in China and it was even worse news. And that number was the population number. Get this, for the first time since the 1960s, China's population shrank last year by 800,000 people. It shrank by a lot. In 2022, there were just more deaths than there were births in China for the first time in six decades.

That low birth rate in China right now, it's a problem for the economy for two reasons. Yeah, it's a problem because of the double dip. First, fewer babies means fewer economic producers in the future. But then on the other hand, also fewer babies means fewer economic consumers in the future, too. So in 20 years, China will have lots of old people, but not as many young people to feed them. Yeah, so that low GDP number? It's bad news for China. But Jack, that low birth rate number?

Even worse news for China's economy. Yeah. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in China? This is the biggest economic flip in memory. China has gone from inevitable to unenviable. Yeties, for the last three decades, China's economy was a dragon-chugging green tea caffeine doubling every five years. China's economy doubled every five years for the last three decades.

It was insane economic growth. And it showed the world that an autocratic government's control of everything could lead to prosperity. It seemed inevitable that China would soon surpass the United States as the number one biggest economy in the world. Honestly, Jack, six months ago, China's rise still felt pretty inevitable. But now, today, China has a nonstop COVID crisis. We don't know how it will end. Besties, now, today, China's facing zero economic growth and a shrinking population. Those are bad data points for today and worse data points for tomorrow.

And that is why, in a snap, China's economy has gone from inevitable to unenviable. Now, a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood. You know, honestly, your salad, it says so much about you. Nick, you like to blaze your own trail at the salad bar. I'm ordering a salad. I go off menu, man, like a combo of kale and croutons that has never been made before. Me? I'm not reinventing the wheel.

I like to go classic. If Sweakerian thinks it's a good combo, Jack's not going to change that. Kind of like investing strategies. Someone to build a custom portfolio of stocks, crypto, and options. Others don't want to reinvent. Just give me the most standard ETF. Whether you're tweaking your one-of-a-kind portfolio every day or prefer a more hands-off approach, Robin Hood has the tools.

If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet to get started, go to robin hood.com slash t-boy to choose your free stock. That's robinid.com slash T-B-O-I. Limitations apply. Stock's offered by Robin Hood Financial LLC. member SIPC. Crypto offered through Robin Hood. All investments involve risk. By the way, this podcast is not owned or part of Robin Hood, and we are not employees of Robin Hood. For our third and final story, The Mill just launched this week with a sleek, tech-connected, a composting bin. To succeed, it must overcome three fundamental forms of friction. Okay, Yeties. Jack and I have heard this.

We haven't seen the data on this, but we've heard that entrepreneurs are often more successful with their second company and then their first company. It's kind of, you got to make money to make more money situations. It's also like you'll learn from your mistakes and you definitely don't want to do those a second time around. Well, Matt Rogers and Harry Tannenbaum, they didn't learn from their mistakes. They learned from their successes because these guys were the co-founders of the smart thermostat, Nest.

Yeah, basically, these guys invented the smart home and now they've invented a smart product within that smart home. They sold Nest to Google for $3 billion many years ago. Not too shabby. But they just unveiled. this week. Their next thing, a compost bin. They're not focusing on smart TVs. They're focusing on a smart trash can. Do you compost? That's the question you're asking every San Francisco party. The follow-up question is, why not? Well, this new product is called the mill. It's a white

trash can that looks like a, I don't know, three-foot tall AirPods container. And then what's the differentiator here, Jack? Because a composting bin is not like a trash can. Inside this product, is a grinding mill with metal teeth that will grind up the food you put in. Now, yet is Jack and I were fascinated with this story? Because we've seen tech come for like a whole bunch of home appliances, including the smart toilet with built-in bidet and noise cancelling everything. But this is the first time Jack and I have seen a tech company target the trash can. Now, every company is trying to solve a problem. The problem this company is trying to solve is when you order too much food. Okay, you got two entrees, two appetizers, just for the two.

Two of you. Jack, you used to work at the Olive Garden. How much food is that? That's going to require like at least two or three doggy bags. Yeah, that's too much food. And I'm not boxing that up for you. So instead of tossing those leftover, I don't know, tortelloni in the trash can, you would open your mill and drop the leftovers in there instead. This is a smart composting machine that will overnight grind that wasted tortelloni into tiny little bits and then dehydrate it during the day. After a few weeks when the mill is full, then you're going to box up that compost.

And then you're going to give it to the mailman who takes it back to the mill and feeds your compost to chickens. If so facto, you just ordered farm to table food and then mill brings it back to the farm. With an impressive feat of logistics, it just completed the circle of life. But Jack, can we sprinkle on just a little bit more broader context here? Fans of composting will tell you that eliminating food waste is like number one in the playbook to limiting climate change. Actually, fans of compost, we'll talk to about this for that entire San Francisco dinner party. Because food, when you put it in the landfill, it stinks. Literally, as the food rots, it emits methane, which is a greenhouse gas, which causes global warming.

So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at the mill? If the mill succeeds, it will have defied three fundamental forms of friction. Yet is, you never want friction in your product. Like, you never want to make adoption of what you're selling harder. And yet, the mill. faces three fundamental forms of consumer friction. Okay, first, there's the habit friction. The mill is asking you to add a third bin in your kitchen next to the recycling and trash can.

They want you to change your habits. And then there's the cost friction. To save the planet with this composter, you pay mill 33 bucks a month forever. And then there's the gross friction. Yeah, this bin is designed to kill the smell of that rotting food down there, but it's still rotting food and it's in your kitchen for three weeks. Now, Bessies, is this better than the current composting options out there? Probably.

And do Jack and I want this new product to win? Definitely. Composting's great. Absolutely. But for the mill to succeed, it must overcome three fundamental forms of friction. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us over there? Match Group is testing freaky expensive premium subscriptions. Because Matches' core demo, millennials, we're aging out. For our second story, China's economic growth is zero.

Its population growth is negative zero. So China's economy has gone from inevitable to unenviable. And our third and final story, two former nesters just launched a food grinding smart composting pit. But its product, it faces three forms of fundamental friction. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Justin Kramm down the street in San Francisco. Yesterday, we told you how In-N-Out Burger created the most profitable burger by being

contrarian by following the opposite of every instinct I've ever had. Now, we listed four key ways it's contrarian. Jason found four more ways it's contrarian. Okay, get this. In-N-Out Burger doesn't do TV ads and doesn't do celebrity endorsements. Sorry, Kylie. And they pay their employees more. Managers make up to 160 grand a year. Oh, also they banned heat lamps and they don't freeze their meat. Most of those initiatives actually cost more money. But they do fit a theme, don't they check. In-and-out burger may be the most contrarian fast food out there. You don't eat the In-N-Out burger. That burger eats you. The milkshake? It shakes you. Yetis, you look fantastic this week. And if you haven't yet, turn to a buddy next to you and say,

hey, H-Y-H-T-B-O-I. Have you had the best one yet? That's how we grow the pod. If you know, you know. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. Can't wait. And before we go, happy birthday to legendary Yeti, Brad Carion living in the Richmond of San Francisco, and he loves a good dinner at Pearl. Hope you're celebrating there. Happy 32nd birthday to Christian Escobar in Dallas, Texas. And Mark Messier up in Canada. Happy birthday, Moose, 94. It's a great year. And happy birthday to Amy Wang, who is eating airport food in San Jose, California. And congratulations to Christian and Charlotte. Two Yetis launching a new app called Watcha. Look out for Watcher. And congrats to Nick Johnson, who just bought his first home in Pocahontas, our

And Prokessioner Chana, a couple that T-Boys together, just celebrated their 10-year anniversary of that wedding down in Austin. And congrats to Dean for getting the new job in Baltimore. And Stephanie Props got a new job down in San Jose. And congratulations to Vidal Benediba, who's celebrating 25 years at General Electric, now working for one of those GE spinoffs. Not too shabby. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-Bow. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Netflix and Nick and I both own stock of Robin Hood.

Now, a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood. Okay, so Jack and I both worked in finance for a while. And we know the six-monitor Bloomberg jockey with charts, numbers, balances, and more charts. They got coffees in both hands while they're executing some complex trade on a soybean future. Well, we're not trying to impress with our mission control trading center. Just give us an app, please. Robin Hood, with its mobile first and intuitive design, it lets you trade with just a few quick taps on there. And even if things still don't seem easy, Robin Hood has your back 24-7 with its live and robust customer support.

If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet, to get started, go to robin hood.com slash t-boy and choose your free stop. That's Robin Hood.com slash T-B-O-Y. Limitations apply. Robin Hood Financial LLC, member SIPC, all investments involved for us. By the way, this podcast is not owned by or part of Robin Hood, and we are not employees of Robin Hood. 94. It's a great year.