The Best One Yet - 🗳️ “Vote or Bet?” — Robinhood’s election betting. Cosm’s live football theater. McFlurry’s government fix.

Episode Date: October 29, 2024

You can now bet on the election outcome on Robinhood… but which is a better predictor, betting or polls?Would you watch football in an Imax theater?... Because Cosm raised $250M for theatrical live sports. Why are 15% of McD’s McFlurry Machines broken?... We’ll explain that plus the government’s fix.Plus, the 3rd episode of our new show drops today: The untold origin story of Birkenstock — The most popular sandal of all time. Over 250 years, it’s gone from a German cobbler’s shop to the hippie movement to high fashion… and now it’s the 3rd biggest shoe brand on earth.Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen. Episodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.—-----------------------------------------------------GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, Teen Boy, Tuesday, October 29th. And today's pod, today's pod, today's pod is the best one yet. Three today's pods. Wow. I mean, it just felt that I was channeling it. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. Jack, we are one week from Election Day. We've actually already voted. Today was Election Day for me. I headed down to the town clerk. It was all a very wholesome and patriotic experience. Jack, I voted a week ago and California now texts you when they've counted your ballots. You get text messages. I like that. Very Silicon Valley. But yet he's in the meantime, Jack and I prepared a total tea boy for you, Jack. Three stories for the show. What do we got? For our first story, Robin Hood just launched election betting.

You can now bet on the election on Robin Hood. Which leads to the big question. When it comes to predictions, is betting better than polling? For our second story, would you watch an NFL game in an IMAX theater? Well, a startup called Cosm raised $250 million. $1 million for live sports in an immersive movie theater. And our third and final story. We've all been there.

You show up to the McDonald's drive-thru, and they tell you the McFlurry machine is broken. I need to speak to a manager. 15% of McFlurry machines are broken right now. But the U.S. government just intervened to fix that McFlurry problem. And we discovered that Wendy's is sneakily involved. True story, wild story.

We'll tell you the details. But Yeties, before we hit that wonderful, mix. Fantastic mix of stories, Jack. Today we're dropping episode three of our new show, The Best Idea Yet. The untold origin stories of the products you're obsessed with and the people who made them go viral. Episode one was the McDonald's Happy Meal. Episode two, Nintendo Super Mario Brothers. So, Jack, we all got to know what is episode number three of the best idea yet? The wild, true story of Birkenstock's Arizona Sandals. The Birkenstock Arizona Sandals. The Burkandstock, Arizona Sandal, the most famous sandal in human history.

Our new episode just dropped this morning. Now today, Yeti's Birkenstock is a $10 billion publicly traded company. It's actually the third top-selling shoe brand after Nike and Adidas. But did you know that Birkenstock was actually invented by a German cobbler 250 years ago? And his name was Wolfgang von Birkenstock. That the Birkenstock shoe began as an orthopedic device for injured soldiers. Or that the sandal didn't take off until it was discovered by a hip-and-shoot. Who started selling it at a San Francisco co-op in the swing in 1960s.

This episode is a wild convergence of leather shoes, San Francisco, Germany, uh-huh, and Hollywood. So Jack and I will tell you how Birkenstock went from flower power to fancy fashion. To become the most popular sandals since the Romans. Yeties episode number three of our news series. It's available to listen to right now, right after this show. So after the show, click the link in the episode description. It's the best idea yet, so go listen for free. anywhere you get your podcast. In the meantime, we do have three fantastic stories. So Yeti's

Jack. Let's hit today's T-Boy. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dawn. They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, Robin Hood, the stock trading and crypto app, is now a betting app too.

You can now bet the outcome of this election on Robin Hood. Which leads to a big question. Is betting better than polling at predicting? Now, yet he's Jack and I are preparing for the story. And we noticed, you know, funny thing, you can bet on anything these days, right, Jack? Sports betting is legal in 38 states. You can bet on who wins the Super Bowl and how long the national anthem will be. Jack, you can bet on the Oscar winner, a weather event, reality TV.

Are Stephen and Hannah going to win love is blind and will Ashley actually find love? You can bet on it. And who's your favorite Mormon housewife? Actually, you can't bet on that. Actually, you can, Jack. But now you can bet on politics too. More specifically, political prediction markets for elections. We should point out the government is not a fan of this.

Yeah, last month, financial regulators sued to stop election trading. They said it could affect the integrity of elections. But the government lost that particular election trading case. Prediction platforms won the key ruling in court, so now you can bet on Kalshi, Predict it, and Pollymarket on who will win the presidential election. Which leads to the news. Robin Hood, they won in on this. That's right.

The stock and crypto trading app will now let you bet on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. And Jack and I, we should sprinkle on a little context here. There are some qualifiers. Like, first, you must be a U.S. citizen in order to bet on the election on Robin Hood. But we should point out, most betters lose money. The House, the White House always wins. So on Robin Hood, you can now buy shares of Kellogg. You can sell doge coin and you can put 500 bucks on your preferred presidential candidate.

When Jack and I saw this news, honestly, we were shocked because Nick and I worked at Robin Hood for over three years. We know the company pretty well. And Jack, what was the one word we noticed that the company wanted to avoid back then? Betting. They did not want to be associated with the word bet. Totally. Like, after the whole GameStop crisis thing, like, Robin Hood went all about investing, not about betting. That was key.

But now, with election prediction markets, all the rage, Robin Hood can't miss out. Oh, and this month, election markets raged. Like election markets, they surged for Donald Trump just in the last 30 days. From 50-50 chances at the beginning of the month to 64. in favor of Trump right now. Now, here's why that. It's interesting. At the same time that election markets have served for Trump, traditional polls have stayed virtually the same.

Traditional polls are still virtually 50-50, a dead heat. Well, it turns out that there was one variable that may have been pushing those election markets, hasn't there, Jack? One buyer moved all the prediction markets in favor of Trump. There was one dude literally like in the country of France who bet $28 million in four different election betting account to sway the market. That's called a whale. He put so much money into bets for Trump that it moved the market towards Trump. Whether this moved the market or didn't move the market, it's almost besides the point. Because either way, Robin Hood saw all this and Robin Hood

got some fomo. They could not miss out on this kind of viral money moving event. Now, we should also point out that Robin Hood seems to have set up an infrastructure here to bet not just on this election, but any future event. We read the press release and the thing they set up was for any event. This event happens to be the U.S. presidential election, but they could do sports betting in the future. You could be vetting on the next winner of Squid Game at the next Robin Hood betting event. You could be betting on whether that couple, Nick mentioned, that's diversifying, is still together or not in six months. If you're not making love as blind money, then I don't know what you're invested in Jack. But the bigger question we know you're asking, Eddie's, it is this.

What's more accurate in predicting the outcome? Polls or betting markets? The answer, is our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies over at Robin Hood? Usually money talks, but this election may be an exception. Now, yet he's betting in financial types. They believe that prediction markets provide better forecast than polls do. They believe there's nothing more pure and efficient than the pursuit of profit. And it makes sense. That's why Las Vegas's odds are more accurate in predicting sports scores than analyst predictions are. But this election is acceptable. But this election is exceptional. Because it's quite possible that a betters politics are influencing their bet in a way

you wouldn't see with sports bets. In other words, you might be betting on a person you want to win, not the person you think will win and make you money. Now, besties, let's compare polls and prediction markets. First, polls, they allow one person, one vote, that's it. But prediction markets allow the person with the most money to vote as many times as they want with their dollars. Polls, they reflect a cross-section of the voters. That's who gets pulled. But betting markets reflect betters who skew young, male, and wealthy. So when you add all this up yeties, prediction markets, they may be less about wisdom of the crowd and more about wishing of the crowd. Usually money talks, but this election market may be an exception.

For our second story, Kossum is a startup building giant movie theaters for live football. And they just raised VC money to build more of these, what we're calling, minispheme. Now, Jack, I should pause the pod for a second and point out, um, first time we have covered a startup led by a former professional football player. Is this true? Have we covered Tom Brady's startup? Let's roll with it, Jack. This startup is called Kazim, but the origin goes back 75 years, Yetis. Here's the story, Yetis. When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik into outer space, America became obsessed with space. And this company said, you know what? We're going to build a planetarium. Armand Spitz founded the

company in 1947 building the world's first planetarium to teach students about the galaxy. Jack, we got the New York Museum of Natural History Planetarium. You got the Griffith Observatory Planetarium. Can I interest you in the outer planetarium in the lovely city of Chicago, my friend? All those planetariums were built by this company, Cosm. But then in 2017, Cosm pulled off a powerful pivot. From education to entertainment. From homework to Hollywood. Awesome. Yeah, they still build these planetariums for like Orion's Belt or whatever. But in July, they got $250 million investments from a bunch of venture capitalists. Venture capital wasn't interested in high school space teaching. They were interested in live immersive sports theaters. Jack, apparently the total addressable market isn't fifth graders. It's football and that's a lot bigger. Cosm is the name of the new business.

And it's a Goldilocks situation between watching a game at home and watching it in the stadium. This is the closest thing to being at the game, but it's also the closest thing to being comfortably in your pajamas on the couch. Because Kazim built immersive movie theaters with 360-degree 12K screens. Kind of like a mini-sphere, like that sphere in Las Vegas. But unlike a movie theater or the sphere, you're watching a live sports event on that gigantic screen. And the screen is so big, you can basically taste the sweat, which is disgusting, but also awesome. You feel like you're sitting in like the fifth row. of MetLife Stadium.

You could basically bring multiple bachelor parties to this thing. With all the cheering that's happening around you, it feels like you're at the game. But they're also serving quality food and drinks into your comfy seats where you're just sitting there wasting away. With all the buffalo wings and wet wipes around you, you feel like you're watching at home.

So it's basically like Goldilocks of in-stadium experiences and at-home experiences. It's just right. You might be thinking, is this virtual reality? They actually call it shared reality because you're watching with 700 people. Yeah, so if you start doing the wave in this thing, Jack, your buddy is everyone around you,

they're going to start doing the wave too. Are we doing this? If you start a chant, the audience might join you. And here's the news. Cosm just scored a deal to show every single NFL game in their epic live movie theaters. What we're saying is, Cosm is about to become a microcosm

of the NFL schedule. Remember what we said. The CEO is a former NFL football player. So every Thursday, Sunday, Sunday, and Monday night, Cosm theaters are going to be packed with football fans. They already got these in Los Angeles and Dallas. Atlanta, they're coming at you next with two of them. So Jack, start doing the wave.

And what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Cosm? Where there's surplus demand, serve the surplus. Serve the surplus, baby. Yeties, a most interesting thing to Jack and me about this story, the location choice. Because the Los Angeles, Cosm, it's actually right next to Los Angeles's NFL. and NBA stadiums. Of all the places, why would they build a fake mini-stadium theater thing right next to the real stadium next door? Well, Jack and I think we know the strategic answer. It's because demand to go to live sports is greater than ever, so ticket prices are higher than ever.

SoFi Stadium, it only holds 70,000 people. A hundred seventy thousand people probably wanted to go to that game. So Cosm is serving the surplus. Fans are probably showing up for the tailgate team outside the stadium. And then when the game begins, they're going into Kazim to watch the game. Exactly, Jack. And by selling tickets to their similar experience for one-tenth the price of the actual game, that's a good value proposition. There is a surplus that that's serving. We've seen this happen in travel.

Like if there's excess demand to travel to London, travel Liverpool will buy the ads for when people Google London. We see this in the food industry. Like, if a new restaurant opens next to a successful restaurant, the new restaurant succeeds because a lot of people can't get into that successful restaurant. It's an overlooked opportunity in business. Yes. Find something with sold out demand and offer a

secondary solution right next door. Perfect. Because where there is surplus demand, serve the surplus. Serve the surplus. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story. For 30

years, McDonald's McFlurry machines across America have been broken. But the U.S. government just intervened to fix them. And The story is wild. Jack, let's whip out the whiteboard here. The airplane, the iPhone, the seedless watermelon. The McFlurry.

This is a grand list of the greatest inventions of the 20th century. Getty's the McFlurry who was invented in 1995 by a franchisee up in Canada. They basically tossed Orioles into their blender with ice cream and tasted the miracle. Yeah, it was a miracle. But the key to the McFlurry innovation, what was it, Jack? It's a spindle. It's a hollow spoon you put into the milkshake that blows air out some holes, so it whips it up like a tornado.

And McDonald's love that because it was efficient and cost effective. You basically, the spoon also mix the milkshake. They actually got rid of the spoon, but RIP, McFlurry spoon. Story for another pot. In the meantime, Yeties, the McDonald's McFlurry has experienced 30 years of drama. Because the machine is constantly broken. It's always out of service. There's actually a website called McBroken.com that will show you a map

of your local area and show you whether the McFlurry machine works or not. According to this McBroken map, 15% of all McFlurries in America are broken. 17% in Houston are broken. 20% in San Francisco are broken. And in New York State, 32% of McFlurie machines are broken. The McFlurry mayhem has gotten so bad. The United States federal government just intervened. And Jack, we got to sprinkle on some context.

The reason the machines are always broken goes back to an innovative digital law from the 1990s. McFlurie machines, they are fickle, aren't they, Jack? Every week, they actually need to be cleaned, top to bottom, and it takes four hours. All the machines are made by one company called Taylor, which controls both the manufacturing of the machines and servicing them. And interestingly, Taylor, because of this situation, has a monopoly on fixing. It's all thanks to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. The DMCA, a 1998 law that is meant to protect, early internet companies. If a hardware company has software with the hardware, only the hardware company can fix the software. And since Taylor was a hardware company that also made software for

these McFlurry machines, they're the only ones who can control how they're fixed. Taylor loves these broken McFlurry machines, by the way. Oh, yeah, they do. They charge $315 for a 15-minute service appointment. Taylor could make the machines easier to fix, but they choose not to because they make so much money with servicing. So what Jack and I are saying, Yetis, is that one out of seven McFlurry machines is broken today because of a digital law from nearly 25 years ago. There's nothing Ronald can do about it. If some go-getter in the kitchen tries to fix it, they're actually breaking the law. Until now. Here's the news on Friday. The U.S. Copyright Office granted an exemption to that law when it comes to the McDonald's McFlurry machine. So now, any repairman can

fix McFlurry machines. No more excuses. Heroes do exist, Jack. The guy in the back, just grab a screwdriver and get to work. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at McDonald's? This is a case study in underdog advantage. Funny thing, Eddies, Jackson, my favorite part about this whole story, it isn't just the feeling of justice from the right to repair. It's actually that website we first mentioned at the beginning, McBrooken.com. If you go to McBrooken.com, it's not just going to show you the McDonald's in the area. It's also going to show you the Wendy's in the area. And that we thought was strange. Like, why is a website that highlights McDonald's weaknesses also highlighting Wendy's strengths? My local McDonald's McFlurry machine is broken,

but Wendy's Frosty Machine works just fine. Jack and I got curious about the situation, so we dug into the website further. It turns out McBroken.com is run in partnership with Wendy's. That's right. Basically a marketing prank. Yeah, Wendy's just punked McDonald's with this website pointing out all the McFlurys that are broken. And we love it because McDonald's is worth like 50 times more than Wendy's. It's nice to see the little guy get a few punches in once in a while. And that was our insight here. Like, if McDonald's had created this website to mock Wendy's, like, that wouldn't be funny.

That'd be punching down. That'd be bullying. But Wendy's is capitalizing on its smaller size and doing it at scale. The reason we're delighted to hear that Wendy's created this website is the underdog advantage. And if you're an underdog, you should take advantage. Jack, and you'll whip up the takeaways for us for T-Boy Tuesday. Robin Hood is now letting you place bets on the U.S. presidential election. Usually, betting markets predict best, but this election may be an exception.

For our second story, it's Cosm. They're building a sports viewing Coliseum. Not just won a bunch. They're basically IMAXs to watch the Eagles. Because there's surplus demand to go to sports games, and Cosm is serving the surplus. And our third and final story is the U.S. Copyright Office. They intervened to let anyone fix McFlurie machine. And honestly, our favorite part of this story was Wendy's role, because Wendy's flexed their underdog advantage.

But Yetty is this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Apple just released its first ever AI update. Apple's artificial intelligence in iOS 18. It's kind of limited right now, but Apple's AI will help you like. format, reword, and optimize your text messages. Can also edit out the stuff you didn't like from that photo. It can summarize emails and text chains and summarize notifications.

Spoiler, your Uber drivers here. You have a missed call for your mom, and you have 73 political text messages. And second, the Washington Post lost 200,000 digital subscribers after its decision to not endorse a presidential candidate. The decision last week was reportedly an order from owner Jeff Bezos. According to NPR, they lost 200,000 subscribers. which is 8% of the Washington Post 2.5 million subscribers. And finally, game three of the World Series happened last night,

but we found a wild stat about viewership. Despite the huge time zone difference, more people watched Game 2 in Japan than in the United States. We repeat, 16 million people watch the World Series in Japan compared to just 13 million in the United States. Shohai Otani, he is a national ambassador. Now time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Jennifer from lovely Hagerstown, Maryland. Election Cakes. Baking a cake for Election Day was once an American tradition.

That's right, Eddie's election cakes. They were connected with Hartford, Connecticut, where they were baked throughout New England as early as the 1796 presidential election. They were called muster cakes, because you shared the cake with neighbors to muster a few more people to get to the voting booths, I guess. Sadly, Americans don't bake cakes anymore for elections. which is painful. Even though cakes are nonpartisan, everyone loves buttercream, and they would probably unite the entire country. Election cakes, bring back that bygone era. Frosting for president, 2028. Yettys, you look fantastic for T-Boy Tuesday. And Jack, what if you are a bestie should you do right after this episode ends? Click the link in the episode description to listen to the

best idea yet. Episode three about the Birkenstock sandals is live. The untold origin stories of the products you're obsessed with. And episode three, it's on the Birkenstock sandal. The Birkenstock was nothing until it came to San Francisco right in time for the hippie movement. And now Jack is their biggest shareholder, I mean buyer of Birkenstock Sandal.

Nick and I'll see you tomorrow. This is Jack. I own stock of Birkenstock. Nick owned stock of Nike and we both own stock of Robin Hood. Yeah, he's enjoyed the best idea yet after this. And Jack and I can't wait to chat with you tomorrow. And before we go,

A congratulations to Yeti Enoch Coronado down in Waco, Texas, who just got a real estate license and is buying their first home. Congratulations to Alana and Vish in New York City for getting married. And shout out to Atlas Buds. Who is there to witness it all? Who's a good couple? And Carrie Mannion down in San Mateo, California, just got engaged to Ryan over the weekend. Ryan got down on one knee, guys.

Let's see some ring picks. Congratulations to Scott Bergman of Norwalk, Connecticut, who just launched a product. the best tarot deck yet. And a happy birthday and congratulations to Genesis, whose quinceaniera was over the weekend, and it was the best party yet. Gotta serve the surplice.