The Best One Yet - 🛡️ “War-folios” — Iran market reaction. Dutch Bros’ energy. Anthropic’s moral marketing. + Fitbit for farting

Episode Date: March 3, 2026

Oil’s up, airlines are down, and so is Chipotle… We look at how War in Iran hits everything markets.Dutch Bros is now the #3 coffee chain… but it’s actually an energy drink chain in disguise.Anthropic vs. The Pentagon vs. OpenAI… Can morals become marketing?Plus, the next cutting edge technology is in your undies… It’s the Fitbit of Farts.$BROS $SPY $GOOGBuy tickets to The IPO Tour (our In-Person Offering) TODAYArlington, VA (3/11): https://www.arlingtondrafthouse.com/shows/341317 New York, NY (4/8): https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0000637AE43ED0C2Los Angeles, CA (6/3): SOLD OUTGet your TBOY Yeti Doll gift here: https://tboypod.com/shop/product/economic-support-yeti-doll NEWSLETTER:https://tboypod.com/newsletter OUR 2ND SHOW:Want more business storytelling from us? Check our weekly deepdive show, The Best Idea Yet: The untold origin story of the products you're obsessed with. Listen for free to The Best Idea Yet: https://wondery.com/links/the-best-idea-yet/NEW LISTENERSFill out our 2 minute survey: https://qualtricsxm88y5r986q.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dp1FDYiJgt6lHy6GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Linkedin (Nick): https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/Linkedin (Jack): https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ About Us: The daily pop-biz news show making today’s top stories your business. Formerly known as Robinhood Snacks, The Best One Yet is hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Tuesday, T-Boy, Tuesday, March 3rd. And today's part is the best one yet. This is a T-Boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. So, yeah, he's Jack just fluent from Florida and he's trying to convince me that Sunburns can, in fact grow up to be tans. That's what happened. Look at this complexion right now. I'm bronzer. I think like 12 dermatologists to some subscribe from the show right now, Jack. Yeah, I really should have reapplied that SPF. I really should have. Jack, I was the championship pickleball game with the in-laws over there. Toasty. Jack also just told me shuffleboard's the new Peloton. But we've got three fantastic stories for today's team boy, Jack. What do we got on the pod?

For our first story, the war in Iran has expanded to 11 Middle Eastern countries, as well as the stock, oil, and even fashion markets. So Jack and I are looking at your war folio, your stock portfolio during a Middle East war. For our second story, Dutch Bros. is now the number three coffee chain in America. But just 10% of their drinks are actually hot. coffee. We'll tell you what they really are. And our third and final story is the biggest beef in business right now. It's between Anthropic, Open AI, and the Pentagon. So here is the Shakespearean business question. Get ethics, be a competitive advantage. But yet he's, before we hit that wonderful

mix of stories. Whoa, I mean, what a mix. Love the Mix, Jack. Nick, when it comes to technology, the next frontier is actually your rear. That's right, besties, because the most cutting edge new wearable out there is a fitbit for flatulence. Yeah. With the app, watch did for our hearts, this new device does for our farts. More specifically, it's for your gastrointestinal health. You got kids in the backseat, they're going to love this story. Get this. Scientists at the University of Maryland, a prototype dissenting device that you clip to the seat

of your underwear. Basically, you're placing this thing on the ground zero of your GI tract. And the goal is to measure something we humans have never measured before. The average number of toots from one human being. And figure out why some of us pass gas more than others. So they're asking participants that track their food along the way as well. see if it correlates with their farts. Because 40% of American adults, yes, we're looking at you.

You got tummy issues. We hear you. Guilty. And the key to digestive nivana could be this fit bit of farts. So, Jack, can we please talk about the demand over there? I can smell it from here. 4,000 people have already applied to test version one of this farty fit bit. Because besties, we have put a man on the moon. We have split the atom. We have taken seeds out of a watermelon.

And yet we still don't know the skinny on the stinking. So finally, science and venture capitalists are getting the answers for us. By the way, the current record, 175 times in one day. But who's counting? You know who you are. Actually, this company's, this company is counting. That is the whole business model. Jack, let's do that three stories.

15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is an norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%. That's a fat tip. Tea boy city on your at list.

If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. For our first story, the war in Iran is already affecting markets in predictable and surprising ways. So we want to talk about your war folio. And want to know what to do?

Well, don't pay attention to finance and fundamentals. Pay attention to generals and geopolitics. Yeties on Monday, 48 hours after the first strikes. Global financial markets got their first reactions to the U.S. Israeli attack on Iran. And stocks started out the day lower. Yes, it did. Because military spending is not an ideal way to grow the economy. But more importantly, something we've warned you about before, it's the U-word uncertainty.

We already had a ton of uncertain question marks in this economy. Inflation, tariffs, AI, the midterm elections. I mean, and nothing gives investors the ick like uncertainty. So add that to the cocktail. War in the Middle East, including two of the biggest militaries in the region and the world's superpower. So the most obvious sector impacted by this war is the oil market. Oil was already up 20% so far this year as the U.S. built up a military presence. It jumped another 7% on Monday.

Because Iran is ranked somewhere between number six and number nine in the world in terms of oil production. And that just came to a complete halt. Plus, Iran's retaliation has attacked seven major oil producers. countries with drone missiles already. Jack, you see, one Saudi refinery was already hit by an Iranian drone just yesterday. And also just yesterday, the Strait of Hormuz was shut down by Iran. That's where one-third of the world's oil by sea actually flows. Add it all up, and several Wall Street analysts are seeing oil rise to a hundred bucks a barrel

if this drags on for the first time since the pandemic. And oil seeps into every nook and cranny of our economy. Every little bit. So, Basties, let's pause the pod for a sec. the macro situation here, right, Jack? Stocks are down, oil prices is up, but what about the micro situation? Yeah, let's go from like a satellite view

to a street view, like from the coaches box to the quarterback's huddle. What do we see, Jack? Looking at the war folio, stocks of oil exporting nations, like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, stocks of those countries could actually rise because they sell oil, which is now more expensive.

Because higher oil prices are good for oil producers. So Exxon Mobil? Yeah, their stock, it popped 4% to open the day on Monday. But oil importing nations that don't have their own version of Texas or the Permian Basin in their backyard. Yeah, we're talking like Japan, India, the European Union. They would be hurt the most if oil prices remain high. Oh, and Jack, can we please talk about the airline and cruise line stocks as a result of that? Well, one third of their operating costs are jet fuel or oil.

Those are oil binging businesses. So, Delta stock fell 3% to start the week, and Carnival dropped 7% onward their business model just got stuck in the middle seat. Basically, the air they breathe is now 25% more expensive than the beginning of the year. And speaking of airlines, Jack, one of Iran's early targets, who was it? Interestingly, the Dubai airport. I had a friend whose flight was just canceled. They are stuck indefinitely because Dubai's airquarter was closed. The people in charge of Iran must be thinking, if they can disrupt international air travel, that gives them some sort of leverage against the United States

in Israel right now. So Iran is targeting transportation. And since a lot of the world's trade goes through that straight if Hormuz just outside of Iran, your Timu Hall could be TBD. A top story in fashion right now is the warn Iran. Sheehan already proactively sent emails to customers telling them to expect delays. And by the way, like Jack said, oil seeps into every part of the economy. So higher oil prices can cause higher overall inflation. Yeah, we've seen this before.

As the price of oil rises, literally the price of everything rises. Even Chipotle, they got to get their avocados from Mexico. that's not getting to your local burrito without a truck. And higher inflation, that might put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates higher longer. So yeah, this could end up affecting your home too. I mean, Jack, you were just talking about refinancing your home this summer. The war in Iran, not good for mortgage rates. And just to put a bow on top of all of this,

Jamie Diamond, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase told this yesterday that he expects a higher risk of terror and cyber attacks as a result of the war in Iran. Quite a bow. So, Jack, what's the take? Takeaway for all our buddies looking at the war in Iran and their war folios. Now is the time to listen to generals and geopolitics, not finance or fundamentals. Now, Eddie's Jack and I follow Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia group. And funny story, actually ran into him on Nantucketucket last summer, Jack.

And so I started chatting with him and just told him we love following him. And very nice guy, also a very nerdy guy. Well, he specializes in geopolitical risks to the markets. And this is wild. In his list of top global risks for 2026 comes out every January. Everyone looks at that list. Iran wasn't even mentioned. He didn't even mention it. It goes to show that nobody knows what's going to happen. But the biggest driver of how this war affects your business and wallets, it's what actually happens in Iran. Now there's some nuance here. Active generals are under political pressure to paint a rosy picture of the situation. Former generals give a different perspective, although they may have some negativity bias. But the most critical question to everything is will this be a long, drawn-out, expensive Middle East, war, like Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, or will it be a swift victory, like Operation Desert Storm in the 1990s? Finance and fundamentals won't tell us anything about that question,

but generals and geopolitics do. For our second story, Dutch Bros is now the third largest coffee chain in America, but it's not actually a coffee chain. Dutch Bros. is just cosplaying as a coffee chain. Yes, they are. Hot coffee is just 10% of their business. But Bestie's first, Last month, we went to the Starbucks Investor Day, got to meet the CEO, and you know what's the first thing Jack told me about the guy? I forget what I told us. He said, this dude is locked in. Nick, he had a great blazer that was the same color as Starbucks green. I love that he did that firm handshake, that dude is locked in, because Besty's Starbucks owns 48% of the U.S. coffee market by sales.

But their last five years have been their decaffeinated era. And Starbucks isn't just feeling the heat from Dahlina Duncan, are they, Nick? No, no, no, no. Starbucks is feeling the heat from the bros, the Dutch bros. Dutch bros, founded by third generation dairy farmers in Oregon, who happened to have some extra Riz over on the side. They're now up to 1,100 locations in the $9 billion stock market value. That's more than a lift.

Dutch pros is now the number three coffee chain in America by revenue, with drinks that sound like WWE pro wrestlers. I'm sorry, who ordered the Annihilator or the Double Torture? Jack, can I interest you in the talker, the kicker? $2 million of revenue per location per year, that's twice as good as Starbucks. Maybe it's because they call their baristas, bro-easters, but either way, this Yeti's, this is what Jack and I find fascinating about the Dutch bros. Despite being in the same industry as Starbucks and trying to beat Starbucks in their own game,

Dutch Bros has made the opposite corporate strategic decisions. Yeah, we got some wild examples here. First, Starbucks is the third place. It's the place to hang, to nap, to write that great next American novel. Dwell is actually a KPI that Starbucks meant. management pursues. True story, we've told you about it. And yet, every Dutch Bros location has a drive-thru. In fact, some are drive-thru only or have a pickup window. There's not a table at the whole company. Another example? Well, the majority of Starbucks sales happen in the morning. It's

become part of your work habit. But the majority of Dutch Bros. sales happen in the afternoon. It's a sweet treat. But the biggest difference between these two chains is something Dutch bros just revealed to the Wall Street Journal. Dutch Bros. confessed they're not actually a coffee chain. True story. They're an energy drink chain. Get this. 90% of Dutch Bros. drinks are served cold. Cup of Joe? That's less than 10% of their sales. They're all about the energy drinks. Caffeine, but from not the bean. You want more numbers here? Here we go. Custom energy drinks? What does that look like at Dutch Bros, Jack? One out of every four orders. True. They developed their own proprietary energy drink brand called Rebel. Yeah. And you can get it frozen. You can get it every color of the rainbow. You can get it with Boba,

on top, boba balls. You could get a punched in your face if you want. It's just like how Starbucks owns Frapicino IP. Dutch Bros owns its own energy drink brand. And the reason is simple. The market for energy drinks is growing faster than the market for coffee is. So basically put your money where the mojo is. And that's not a bad reason to own Dutch pro stock. Right. But also, given the record high coffee bean prices out there, a sugar energy drink? Oh, that is a profit puppy. Another reason to own Dutch pro stock. Although a reason not to is it's the only coffee. coffee chain with a defibrillator on hand with every broista. And now we know why. True. If a customer walks out with a large gummy bear lemonade with 111 grams of sugar in there,

that's a real number. You might want to proactively call the ambulance for that customer. It's the same amount of sugar as 10 crispy cream glazed donuts. Does a jar of raw sugar count as an energy drink? Jack, that's not a drink. That's a Halloween trick-or-treat bag. So what's the takeaway for our energy drink buddies over at Dutch Bros. Dutch Bros. It's actually a cosplay company. Now, Yeti's, you know, cosplay. Jack does it on weekend. It's when people dress up as their favorite characters like superheroes.

Well, a cosplay company dresses up as an industry that's not actually their core business. For example, the New York Times, they're not really a news company. They're a gaming and cooking company because a majority of their profits do not come from news subscriptions. Amazon, it's not actually an e-commerce company. No, the majority of their profits come from cloud computing and advertising. And Dutch bros just isn't a car.

Coffee chain, it's an energy drink drive-thru. It just dresses up like a coffee company because you'd never admit going to an energy drink chain every day. Sometimes Yetis, a brand mask, their true core business, they wear a corporate costume. And we call that a cosplay company. Now a quick word from our sponsor. For our third and final story,

Anthropic, Open AI, and the Pentagon are in a high-stakes game of the summer I turned pretty, basically. And these are brand defining moments for the leaders of AI. We are seeing who they really are right now. Spoiler, Anthropic is like Apple. Open AI is like Zuck. But yet he's on Friday. The U.S. government declared war on Anthropic.

I feel like we need a record scratch here. Secretary of War. Pete Higgsith designated the clawed owner Anthropic as they get this, supply chain risk. A supply chain risk is a designation we've only ever given to foreign companies not a U.S. company like Anthropic. So it looks that, like Harvard University, Anthropic is being punished for refusing to bend on a core principle. And this could really hurt.

Oh, yeah, because Hegset demands any company doing business with the U.S. government not do business with Anthropic. That's a supply chain risk. That's what happens. But, Jack, this could also really help Anthropic, right? Claude is number one in the app store right now. It seems like they're getting a ban bump situation. So either way, with all this beefin, Anthropics said it would sued

to challenge the government's supply chain risk designation and basically wear that scarlet letter until it's over. Or get the scarlet letter removed is what they're suing for. But Jack, funny thing, who's loving this beefing right now? Open AI is, Nick. Sam Altman swooped in to sign his own deal with the DoD, literally hours after Anthropic got blacklisted by them. And what's Sam Altman thinking, Jack, and if you could put this in mean girls context, I would appreciate it. He's thinking it's better to be in the plastics and hating life than to be out of of the plastics. Well, but side note, by the way, Basties, despite the breakup, the Department of

Defense actually used Anthropic in their attacks on Iran. You see, there's a six-month wind-down to this whole relationship. But the big question, you must be wondering in the story, what was OpenAI willing to deal with the government? That Anthropic wasn't willing to do with the government. Basically, what was the safe word and Donde Estab the red lines? Nick, there were two red lines that Anthropic insisted be in the T's and C's in their deal. with the U.S. Department of Defense. Ah, the old terms and conditions. What were those two red lines, Jack? Anthropics AI could not be used for mass domestic surveillance of Americans, and it could not be used for fully autonomous weapons. Now, on the other hand, OpenAI says that federal law already

forbids the military from domestic mass surveillance, so they think they're all good there already. But Anthropic and legal experts disagree, and Anthropic refuse to capitulate. And the reason, well, why don't you picture every James Bond movie you've ever seen? You know the really nerdy scientist, Q. Love Q. He's always got spectacles, and he's always explaining to James Bond the key bad guy's rap sheet and his whole backstory. And Q knows all the details about this guy. He even knows like where the bad guy's mother-in-law went to college. He gets all the details. That kind of profile building, it's legal for the government to conduct deep, personal, even invasive feeling research like that on someone. But here's the key. Because it had to be done manually by

human, it has historically been limited. But with AI, that kind of profile building could be scalable to all of a government citizens. So Anthropics interpreting that situation and saying, you know what, I'm going to sit this one out. They refused to have their AI be used for a mass domestic surveillance situation. Because similar to what China has already done, theoretically, the government could very quickly know everything about us, a surveillance state that could lead to abuse. But a very well-paid lawyer at Open AI gave Sam Altman cover and said this kind of AI surveillance won't happen based on existing law. Go ahead, sign the deal with the DoD. You're good

to go. So, Jack, what's a takeaway for all our buddies? Looking at how the AI industry is going to shake out. Are ethics a competitive advantage? Can morals become a moat? Can principles lead to profits? For each, Jack, Yetty's last year, we told you about Anthropics Claude Cafe, an AI coffee shop in the West Village with a line out the door. It was a marketing move. It was. They wanted you to associate Anthropics brand with artistry. They wanted to say their AI doesn't replace human creativity, it supports it. But Basties, with this Pentagon beef, Anthropics trying to add kind of another nuance to its brand. It's trying to add morality. The CEO of Anthropics said on 60 minutes on Sunday that he's doing the patriotic thing by putting his foot down. He thinks morality is part

of being American. That is literally what he said. But while Anthropic is willing to be punished for its principles, open AI is more anything goes. Anthropic is acting like Apple in this situation. Exactly, Jack. The way Apple treats privacy, building their brand on one cardinal value. Like when Apple refused to give the FBI access to someone's eye messages, and they said it was because of privacy.

Well, what Anthropics doing now is because of safety and morals. Well, on the other hand, though, open AI, they're kind of looking more like meta, right, Jack? It's more of a zucky move they're doing. Willing to bend their principles if it leads to profits. Classic zuck. So besties add it all up, and this leads to the big question,

We're asking you, and you should drop in the comments. Our ethics are competitive advantage? Can morals become a moat? And can principles transform to profits? Jack, fresh off the flight, can you whip up the takeaways for us for Tea Boy Tuesday? Our first story was the war in Iran. It caused stocks to fall initially on Monday,

although the S&P 500 actually ended slightly up at the end of the day. So what comes next for the war folio? Well, finance and fundamentals won't tell us, but generals and geopolitics will. For our second story, Dutch bros, is actually worth four times more per location than Starbucks is. Because the Dutch bros are a cosplay company. They dress up like a coffee chain, but they're actually an energy drink chain.

And our third and final story is Anthropic. They got blacklisted by the Department of War, and Open AI immediately swooped in to replace them. Oh, they saw the beef and they grot a fork. One of them is going the principled route, the Apple route, while the other one's going the profitable route, the Zuck route. But Yeties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

First, pause the pod. Sweet Green, no longer a salad business. They just ordered a stack of tortillas and they're selling salad wraps. Yeah. Sweet Green is launching wraps now. Yeah. Which is basically just a salad with a blanket around it. And it becomes a on-the-go company with the addition of this tortilla.

Never felt more comforted. Bloomberg actually just did a deep dive in how Sweet Green's first French fry was kind of a soggy failure. unfortunately. But Hall of Fame Yeti, Amanda Whittam, asks this strategic question, will sweet green wraps bring in new customers? Or will they cannibalize salad sales for old ones? The answer is in the arugula. And second, Apple just announced a new iPhone out of nowhere. The 17E. It's like iPhone 17, but 200 bucks cheaper. Now, Apple's not stopping there. They're releasing at least five new, very marginal product updates later this week. And finally, Gen Z apparently misses the office. Get this, Out of all the generations, the one most opposed to fully remote work is Gen Z. Jenny.

It's from a Gallup poll. Just 23% of 20-somethings want to work fully remote. Now, time for the best fact yet. This won an answer to yesterday's Tea Boy Inside of Trivia. Jack, you ready for this? Oh, yeah. Okay, so yesterday we did a whole story on Netflix. And our question was, Netflix started as a DVD company.

They mailed their final DVD just three years ago. But what was their most popular DVD of all time? And my guess was Finding Nemo because I'm pretty sure Finding Nemo is the best-selling DVD of all time. Okay, the most popular Netflix DVD of all time is The Blind Side. The 2009 football movie was Sandra Bullock. Wait, 2009 streaming was already around. I know, I know. And yet, Sandra Bullock may be the biggest profit puppy in Netflix's history.

Yeties, you are looking fantastic out there. Jack, you were glowing the whole show. You know what, by the way? We got to share tomorrow. We may have the best guest yet for our D.C. show. This is incredible. She's amazing. Our Washington D.C. show is a week from tomorrow, March 11th.

At the Arlington Draft House, great venue. We'll announce the guest interview tomorrow. It's so good. We have tickets still available by yours now because we're going to sell out after we announce the guest. You got to grab them now. In the meantime, H.O.H. T.B.O.I. And Jack and I, we'll see you, man. Before we go, a happy birthday to the best one yet.

The A-girl, Alex Kravichie Kramer. Jack, you want to take it from here? It's her golden birthday. It is. Absolutely gorgeous and loving mother of three and a phenomenal wife of my own. And Brandon Torres, father to Camille and puppy Walter is the Iron Man trainer with the best birthday in Woodbridge, Virginia.

Happy birthday to Michael Chang, the first birthday in Seattle as a father. And Abinaw Pitall is biking for his birthday down in Sunnyvale, California. Happy birthday to charity who's turning 33. on 3-3. This Brooklyn night moved to Paris to study luxury brands. And to Nikhil and the entire intention design team, thank you for sending us the best standing desks yet. Jack and I used them in our live show in Austin. We love him. Great work, guys. Oh, and a big shout out to Edward Locke of Los Angeles, who created Paws thepod.com, which tracks our episodes and our takeaways. It's wonderful work.

We are going to share more on this, but in the meantime, I want to know if it was vibe-coded or not. In the meantime, Edward, we wanted to give you the shout-out, but we can't wait to talk with you. That was incredible what you did. Also, speaking of our live show, Marnie Cain and Grace Kim, big shout-out, because we shared the product of her work at our live show, which is our brand pyramid. Yeah, if you're curious about our brand strategy, then S-Cargo Studio is the one who did it, and it's the best brand strategy yet. It guides everything we do. This is Jack. I own stock of Netflix.

Nick and I both own stock of Apple and Chipotle, and we both own ETFs of the S&P 500.