The Best One Yet - 🐥 “Year of the Nugget = 2023” — Chicken’s price plummet. Loop’s baby rental. SBF’s Bystander Effect.

Episode Date: December 2, 2022

Apply for TBOY Social Media Manager: https://tally.so/r/3yX9OgFinally, the price of 1 thing in the economy has fallen — The Chicken Wing. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is accused of fraud, yet he just sat down for an interview in a Shakespearean drama. And Loop just made a major hire for its baby gear rental company, but it has us wondering the ancient question: Rent or Buy? $WING $CMG $BTCFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on YoutubeWant a Shoutout on the pod? Fill out this formGot the Best Fact Yet? We got a form for that tooLearn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday, the real Friday, December 2nd. And today's pod is the best one yet. It's a T-Boy. It's already Friday. What a big week it's been. Jack, you want to whip up the reminder for all the Yetis out there?

We have an open position for a social media manager, the first ever best social media manager yet. Jack and I are hiring. If you knew someone who can turn a takeaway into a TikTok, we want that person. We have a bunch of applicants already, but the position is still open for a few more days. In the meantime, Jack, what's our first story?

Finally, the price of something has come down big. Finally, chicken, chicken, it's chicken. And 2023 will be the year of the nugget. For our second story, the FTX founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, is the Bernie Madoff of crypto. But he just sat down for a Shakespearean interview. And our third and final story is loop. They just made a big new hire for renting baby toys, baby clothes, baby onesies, baby bassinets. Which brings us to the existential question, to rent or to own.

Is that two Shakespeare? No, that's too live or not. It's actually three. Shakespeare love chicken nuggets, Jack. But Yeties, before we hit that fantastic mix. Jack, this mix is the perfect mix to go into a weekend with. We got an update from 70 million years ago. Besties, turns out there's a whole new dinosaur that just got discovered.

Hold on to your triceratops. This ain't just any new dinosaur. Dinosaur. No, it ain't. This new dinosaur is the Nata Vanator Polydontas. Oh, let me stop you right there. It's better known as the swimming velociraptor. I prefer that name. Let's go with that name instead. Yeties, this is unprecedented. The first ever meat-eat dinosaur with two legs that can also do a backstroke. Talking about the first dino that hunted both on Earth and in the ocean. Are you an animal grazing the prairie? Well, this dinosaur just ate you. Are you a fish, swimming laps in the sea? Well, this dinosaur also just. just ate you. Paging Dr. Grant, this raptor would devour your nightmares. Jack, it's like if Samuel L. Jackson crossed a T-Rex with Michael Phelps. Now, they discovered this freaky fossil in central Mongolia. But yet, it's the way Jack and I see it, this freaky fossil isn't just a dinosaur. This thing is a future Hollywood star. Can we get those paleontologists down to Orlando, Florida?

You know Disney or Universal is going to commercialize this carnivore. And Jack, Netflix is just smelling the box office magic right now. They didn't dig up an ancient animal in Mongolia. No, they didn't. They just discovered a future animated trilogy, Jack. Jurassic Park Nine. This thing. We'd watch that shmovie.

So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in digging up animals? Hollywood doesn't need more streaming dongles, Nick. No, Hollywood just needs more paleontologists. Let's eat our three stories. Life flies away. Fifteen years before this song, Two boys from the Northeast met in the dawn

They had an idea to cause a cultural storm 50% that's a fat tip Tea boy city on your at list If you know you know cause we're ready to go We can't wait no more so just start the show For our first story We just got the data that inflation chilled In the last month

But you already saw that in your sandwich Our chicken sandwiches are getting a little fatter And our wallets are too Oh, yet he's Jack and I just got another inflation report and it showed a little bit of improvement, not too shabby. In October, prices rose a tad slower, and that's a good thing. All right, that's good. That's pretty good. But Jack, what's better than that? A juicy chicken breast with breaded everything. Chicken, because besties, chicken, chicken, chicken had been suffering the worst in this inflation situation.

In the past two years, chicken prices in America triple. Yeah, poultry prices were the most popping of all the food out there on your plate. Restaurants ended up charging chicken fees, like a dollar surcharge of anything chicken on the menu. Jack, remember that story we did over the summer? Wingstop? What did Wingstop end up doing? They sell chicken wings. There was such a shortage of chicken wings. Wingstop launched thigh stop.

True story, we covered it. Yeties, the reason for all of this chicken inflation drama was because chicken plants had fewer workers during the pandemic, just as our chicken craving surged. Chicken is a great takeout and delivery item, so that was perfect during the pandemic. But also, Jack, it wasn't just that? Wasn't it also the hatch rate? We should talk about the hatch rate. We got to talk about the hatch rate yet. Eggs hatched per hen were down big in 2021. It's like an M-night Sharmelon movie plot. It's a real statistic. Like Tyson, a chicken producer, admitted the reason to investors was an awkward thing with the hatch rate. Tyson admitted that they selected the wrong roosters and that led to a low hatch rate. I'm not kidding.

Like they had the wrong male chickens involved in the chicken production hatch rate. And that led to an unexpected decline in the number of hatched chicks. But get this, Yetis. Chicken prices have steadily declined more and more and more since the summertime. Chicken prices have plummeted 70% since June. And the big reason, hatch rates, they're back up to pre-pandemic levels. The chickens are apparently cooking up more chickens for us out there. Tyson, and again, we're not kidding here, Tyson changed.

to the mail at their hatchers. Tyson found a rooster with a little bit more cockadoo! That's what they did! So, Yetis, in the past month, every fast food chain has been celebrating the chicken situation like it was top shelf turkey. Half of Chipotle's burritos that they sell are chicken, so they were more relieved than just celebrating. Yeah, over at Wingstop, they said that they're paying half the price for their chicken ingredients

compared to a year ago. In fact, Jack and I jumped in T-boy style. Wingstop, which is a pure play chicken wing stock, is up 120% in just the last six months. Wingstop is the most pure play of all the stocks out there, by the way. Wingstop may be the best performing stock of 2022, by the way. Because Wingstop's number one cost is chicken. And those costs are down 70% since June. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies who enjoy or invest in chicken?

Instead of playing defense, the chicken companies are playing offense. Yeties, we know what you're thinking. Is this just another story of companies sitting back benefiting from cheaper chicken and making us pay the same high price for those fried chicken sandwiches? Or making us pay more for fried chicken sandwiches. Companies could defensively just collect profits and enjoy this chicken moment. But thankfully, they're not. No, shockingly, they're actually sharing the chicken charms with us consumers.

It's because the restaurant industry is so competitive. Kitchens are going wild on offense to win our bellies. Exactly. Jack, get this. There has actually been a 160% jump in the number of chicken promotions just since last year. They're passing on the lower price of chicken to us. For example, Jack, what's going on with our buddies over at Applebee's? They're giving away free wings if you spend more than 30 bucks on a delivery order.

We were shocked. Instead of taking poultry profits, restaurants are passing out. poultry promotions. They're going from defense to offense. 2023 is the year of the nugget. For our second story, the villain of crypto, who brought down the FTX exchange isn't hiding right now. He just did a VIP live event with the New York Times. FTX's rise is a case study in the bystander effect. Okay, so Jack, let's pop back a couple steps here, beep, beep, beep. The last time we covered Sam

Bankman-Fried, we played a little game. Lehman, Enron, or Madoff? Lehman, Radeoff. Which one was Sam Bankman-Fried? We said he was a Bernie Madoff. Yeah, he was a Bernie Madoff because he collected $10 billion from people who wanted to invest in crypto, but then took their money and spent it on himself. Basically, he took customer money, he made financial bets, and he also bought his buddies some bungalows over in the Bahamas. Smells like fraud, but investigators are still working on it. No charges have been made. So, of course, the media-hungry, disgraced former CEO is in hiding under a bed. No, he is doing a speaking tour. Yeah, two days ago, he was at the New York Times. Yesterday was at Good Morning America.

We were shocked. So, Jack, instead of just sprinkling on some context here, can you actually set the scene for us? Yes, Columbus Circle, 59th Street, Central Park West, right? Lovely views. Beautiful building, beautiful venue for the New York Times' VIP once a year. Dealbook business event. Jack, how much does it cost to get a ticket to this event? $2,500 per seat. That is harder to get into than Hamilton. Netflix's CEO is there. Amazon CEO was there. BlackRock CEO was there. The scene was Shakespearean. You've got Zuckerberg. Zuck. Zuck is in the audience. And then on stage, you've got the made off of crypto, Sam Bankman Fried himself getting interviewed.

He zoomed in from an undisclosed location. He's like digitally on stage. We know what we're telling you. It's like an avatar. But the first thing Sam Bankman-Fried said was that his personal fortune in just months had gone from $16 billion at the peak when he was a crypto-vundercint to $100 grand today. And he's got one credit card. That's it. And we're shocked he even has that Discover card. Now, he also said that his lawyers advised him not to do this public speaking tour.

So then he also also said he ignored his lawyers and he's just going to do what he wants. He's a cool CEO. Now, some think he was there as a form of like therapy. He wanted to get off his chest what had happened and try to clear his name. He wanted to like sit on the couch, lie back and just say, just, hey, this is who I am, this is how I feel. But we think he acted like a well-trained criminal defendant on stage. Because what we saw when Jack and I watched this was 70 straight minutes of avoiding straight answers to every question thrown at it. The key answers he gave was that he didn't try to commit fraud.

Or also, he didn't knowingly spend customer cash on himself. The key words were try and knowingly. That's what a lawyer trains you to say. Yeah, because it's only fraud if a prosecutor proves that Sam Bankman-Fried, or knowingly took customer money. So he says he ignored the lawyers, but he actually just made his lawyers proud with his evasive language. We also don't really believe anything he says anyway. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in crypto?

FtX is a case study in the bystander effect. Yet he's the lead investor of FTC. was Sequoia. One of the top venture capital firms in the entire world. Sequoia gave San Bankman Freed $150 million to build his crypto empire. And Sequoia says they did their diligence. They did their homework on FTX. They did their research. But clearly doesn't look like they did.

We know now that FTX had zero organization, no systems, no accountability. Money was all over the place. It was a horribly run company. Now, that is all bad, but you know what's worse? The bystander effect. The bystander effect. When you stand by and assume that someone else is going to do the thing. Yeah, for example, dozens of other venture capital firms also invested millions and billions into FTX2.

They could have done their homework. They had access to the same information as Sequoia did. But they didn't do their homework because they assumed Sequoia did. They assumed the top VC that was putting in the most money had done the homework for them. That's the bystander. effect, the same phenomenon we also saw happen with the investors in Theranos. It's bad to not do your homework. It's worse when you assume the person you copied did their homework too. Now a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood. You can do just about anything from your phone,

but some industries, they've just been slow to move. The finance industry was slow to move from phone to computer and then from computer to app. Robin Hood wasn't. It's the Silicon Valley-based brokerage that's been updating app since it was born in 2015. Using the Robin Hood The Robin Hood app for your stocks and crypto is almost as easy as downloading it. So you can invest to your pace on your terms by downloading the Robin Hood app. If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet, to get started, go to robin hood.com slash T-Boy and choose your free stock. That's Robinhood.com slash T-B-O-Y limitation supply.

Stocks are offered by Robin Hood Financial LLC, member SIPC. Crypto offered through Robin Hood crypto. All investments involve risk. By the way, this podcast is not owned by or part of Robinhood, and we are not employees of Robin Hood. For our third and final story before the weekend, Loop, the Baby Gear subscription startup

is letting parents rent not own, and they just hired a new CMO. Right. Rent versus own is the question that Zillenials face more than any previous generation. Okay, so Jack, let's go back to last year. You know, I had that ski trip, Aspen, that was really fun.

And I remember, you brought, you had so much baby stuff to bring. Like, when you go on a road trip, What kind of stuff do you got to bring? Okay, I stuffed the car with a pack and plank, a stroller, like three different baby carriers. I'm keeping track right here. I'm keeping track, man. A dinner table seat that clips onto the table for the baby.

That sounds like it's for you too, but okay. A noise machine. That's for you. A video camera and monitor. Yeties, just to speed things along here. There is a lot of money. A sleep sack. Nail clipper.

Yeties, as you can see from Jack's six volume list of things a baby may need. Bath toys. There is a lot of money in selling all those things a baby may need. But there may be a bigger opportunity in renting out all those things a baby may need. Enter Loop, which just hired the former Glossier executive, Ali Weiss, to be CEO. You know, Jack and I got curious, so he jumped in T-Boy style. They also just acquired their rival in the baby bassinet rental business. Loop lets parents rent all those baby products and then give them back when you're done instead of owning.

Okay, so for example, for ages zero to six months, what are they going to be producing, Jack? They're going to let you rent a smart bassinet, a baby cam and a baby Carson. But then that baby keeps growing, ages six to 12 months, then what are the new products? You rent out training socks so they can learn to walk, a high chair, maybe a jolly jumper. Baby just won't stop growing though, Jack, so age 18 months, then what are they selling? You send back the stuff that he's outgrown, and you get instead stuff that's perfect for him right then. Like, what kind of stuff is that? Blocks, blocks, blocks, and more building blocks.

It's a lot of blocks. Yeti's all of that is why venture capitalists are really liking the kid economy these days. Every month, there's a new thing you need to buy for your kid. It creates a whole new sales cycle. Exactly. But Yeties, this is why Jack and I were fascinated with this story. It's actually not really about Loop because we don't have that much information on Loop the startup. Yeah, Loop's an early stage startup.

They're just not that much out there. This is really about a question that Jack and I notice we, Zillennials, are facing more and more as consumers these days. To rent or to own. To rent or to own. The age old question, it used to be a simple question limited to basically one thing. Your house or your apartment. Do you want to rent it or do you want to own it? Maybe your car, but basically it was just those two things at most. But thanks to tech-enabled subscription businesses like Loop, the age-old question now applies to every product category. Yeah, like rent the runway, it lets you rent your entire wardrobe. There's furniture and jewelry subscriptions that offer

monthly rates unlike sofas or sapphire. Peloton lets you rent your bike and then send it back if you pull your hammy after that Cody ride. You don't have to own a Peloton anymore. You can rent. But we still own the stock. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Loop? To rent or to own depends on what you're short on. Yiddies, when it comes to renting or owning a home, that mainly comes down to one variable. Money. Can you afford it? But when it comes down to renting versus owning in other material things, there's different factors at play. For example, another factor is storage. That's a huge cost of actually owning something.

Renting instead could free up space because you only have the product when you need the product. Or another factor is the environment. The more things we own, the bigger our environmental impact. But renting is basically sharing. Let's a product live on with another customer. And another factor is sentimentality. Like owning something, that means it's yours. You own it.

That's sentimental value. Renting something means it's not yours. You gotta give it back. Then someone else is going to have. So, Yetis, when it comes to the age-old question of renting versus buying, are you short on money or space or climate guilt or sentimentality? There are a lot of factors because you can rent anything. Whichever you're short on may decide whether you should buy it or rent it.

Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? Thanks to plummeting chicken prices, 2023 is going to be the year of the nugget. Nice for us. Restaurants, we're going on the offense. We're not staying on the defense. For our second story, Sam Bankman-Frey did his lawyers proud in that interview with the New York Times. He was able to rise so high because of the bystander effect.

And our third and final story is loop. They let parents rent out the chassis of that baby bassinet instead of owning it. Rent versus own. It all depends on what resource you're short on. Now time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Alexa Kalingo from lovely Chicago, Illinois. in black. Here we go. Did you know that pumpkins are considered to be one of the earliest domesticated crops ever? Indigenous people of North America use them for savory recipes, whereas Europeans had

another idea and used them for sweet recipes. So pumpkin spice. Did you know that there actually is no pumpkin in the mix? It's a blend of cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, and sometimes all spice. And how did it get its name? Well, these are the spices that are used in pumpkin baked recipes. No pumpkin in my pumpkin-spice latte? No pumpkin in that pumpkin-spice latte, Jack. Is there someone I should be complaining to right now? I'd like to speak to a manager about my $14 latte. Dahlene is loving this news.

Hey, Dahlene, two pumps of pumpkin. Two pumps of nutmeg. Yeties, you looked fantastic all week long. And if you haven't yet, you can drop down and rate us. Give us five stars on the pot. And remember, if you know someone who wants to be a social media manager for the best one yet, We got a link in the episode description. And to every bestie who shared us with their Spotify wrapped,

we really, really loved seeing it. We just loved it. Let's celebrate the wins. Celebrate the West. And before we go, Jack, remember Yeti's Leslie and Terrence Waters? They got a shout out for their engagement back in August. I do. Now they got married in Winter Garden, Florida.

Congratulations. And Vincent and his wife just got a new mattress in New York City after a year of sleeping on an air mattress, mattress, mattress. Thank goodness. Vincent, you're never going to hear this again. And Stephanie and her partner have a five-year anniversary down in Orlando Florida. And congratulations to Kevin Walsh, who's celebrating six years together with his partner in Orlando, Florida. And a happy birthday to Eric Luke down in Rosemead, California.

And happy birthday to Lindsay Melnick. He just got a job at McKinsey. And a happy birthday to Alec FAM. who's celebrating this Sunday with his girlfriend down in Minneapolis. And happy birthday to Steve Bertrand in Sandy Springs, Georgia. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-Bull. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack.

I own stock of Disney and Netflix and Nick and I both own stock of Chipotle, Peloton, Spotify, and Robin Hood. Now a word about our sponsor, Robin Hood. Jack, rule number one about a kitchen renovation. Tell your friends about your kitchen renovation. We know the cabinets are expensive. Well, in the pandemic, a lot of companies renovated their businesses focusing on apps and digital. Robin Hood didn't have to. It was built digital from the start. Robin Hood's mobile first and intuitive design makes investing a little easier for every stage of your investing journey.

Whether you want to trade options, ETFs, or stocks through Robinto Financial, or buy some Bitcoin on Robin Hood Crypto, you can do all that right on the Robin Hood app. If you're not investing on Robin Hood yet, to get started, go to Robinhood.com slash T-Boy and choose your free stock. That's robin hood.com slash TBOI. Limitations apply. Robin Hood Financial LLC, member SIPC, all investments involved risk. By the way, this podcast is not owned by or part of Robin Hood. We are not employees of Robin Hood. They're going from defense to offense.

They're going from Bacaboole. That eye motion, dude. Oh, my God. Dude, it's the I. That's the eye, this is the eye, man.