The Best One Yet - 💰 “You’re interested in interest” — Banks’ yield problem. Tiffany’s NYC museum. Package’s econ prediction.

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

Have you gotten more interested in interest lately? It’s not just you. A record number of Americans are moving around their money because they’re chasing yield (and it’s probably worth it). Tiffany’s jewelry is reopening its flagship store in NYC after 4 years — but it’s not a store… it’s a museum. And we found an economic crystal ball: It’s Packaging Corp — Because before you something can be bought, it must be packaged.$PKG $UPS $FDX $LVMUY $FRBWant merch, a shoutout, or got TheBestFactYet? Go to: www.tboypod.comFollow The Best One Yet on Instagram, Twitter, and Tiktok: @tboypodAnd now watch us on YoutubeLearn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Wednesday, April 26th, and today's pod. Honestly, today's pod is the best one yet. It's a T-boy. Jack, first story, what do we got on the show, man? For our first story, we found a crystal ball, and that crystal ball will tell us what Amazon's earnings will look like. Here it is. It's a $12 billion cardboard company called Packaging Corp of America. Packaging Corp of America. For our second story, Tiffany's, the iconic American jewelry brand, just reopened their flagship store in New York City after four years of renovation. Funny thing, instead of opening a store, they accidentally opened a museum. And our third and final story, we just learned something interesting from the Big Bank Earnings.

It is it turns out four out of five of you aren't doing something with your money that you should be doing with your money. You want to pay attention to that third one. Your money's going to want to pay attention for you. But before we hit that wonderful mix, Yettys. Just a wonderful mix of stories. I love this mix today. Yesterday on T-Boy Tuesday, Nick and I,

I asked you a question about Hollywood and Wall Street. We asked you what fake brand from TV do you wish were real? What company from a movie would you buy stock in in real life if you could? And Jack the Yetis, they had some fantastic thoughts. And the besties, they had some deep opinions. So we wrote down some of your ideas on Dunder Mifflin Triple Stock A4 paper. And then we discussed the best ideas over a big Kahuna burger. Made with Yellowstone Grass Fed Beat. at a White Lotus resort. Let's kick it off with John Engerman, who said he would buy a coffee with his friends over at Central Park if he could.

Jack, there is no Globo gym for Abby Heller because she wants to work out at Average Joe's gym. Nobody makes me bleed my own blood. John DeArmus, he wants to enjoy some lunch over at SpongeBob's Chum Bucket. But Ashley prefers the crab over at Krusty Crab Cafe. Well, Jack, when it comes to finances, Leor Radbill would do his banking with the Bank of

Lannister. Because Lannister always pays their debts. On the other hand, Abby Wexler does her banking over at Gringott's Wizarding thing. Because Hagrid's got a butter beer waiting for over at diagonal. But here's the deal, besties. If your chassis gets busted, you're going to want to get that car fixed over at Zelensky Auto Parts. I make car parts for the American working man because that's what I am and that's who I care about. Oh my God. That was just too, too good. Yeties, don't go to Disney World. Your favorite roller coaster, where is it, Jack? It's at the Waystar Royco Amusement Park. Hey, Greg, where are tickets?

Nick, we should probably hit our three stories now. This is been great. Heck, we should definitely hit our three stories. But only after we knob down a couple of bluth-frozen bananas. Because there's always money in the banana stand. There's always money in the banana stand. Now, let's hit our three stories. Pied Piper, get me Los Hermanos Poyos.

15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the They had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is a norm. That's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50% that's a fat tip. Tea boy city on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go.

We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. For our first story, we may have found a crystal ball that predicts what will happen in the U.S. economy. It's a small cardboard company called Packaging Corp of America. Packaging Corp of America. First time on the pod. 15,000 employees, $12 billion valuation, not too, shall be. This company makes paper and cardboard and there worth three lists. Yeah, sit down, stand up, and sit back down on a cardboard box again, Jack.

But first, let's fly into O'Hare and then drive about 30 miles outside of Chicago to Lake Forest, Illinois. Lovely Lake Forest, Illinois. Yet he's over in Lake Forest. They have been pumping out paper and cardboard boxes since 1867 over at Packaging Corp of America. Nick, Mark Twain wrote his stories on their paper. They're using cardboard from trees that existed during the dinosaur era. But today, anybody with a big pile of cardboard in the garage, they know this company. You've interacted with this company because you have like kicked that box all the way into the garage. Honey, I'm going to break down the boxes at some point.

I'll take care of it by the weekend. I swear I'm on it. I got to put it outside. I'm never going to do this, am I, Jack? Packaging Corp of America has become cardboard crazy. Jack and I jumped in T-boy style. These guys are doing corrugate. boxes, laminated boxes, double-fold boxes, triple-fold boxes.

They are the third biggest cardboard manufacturer in the United States. Yep. It's a pure play publicly traded packaging company that sells $9 billion a year in paper and paper-associated products. But here's the problem, yeties. We just got a warning from the old paper mill packaging Corp of America. They just updated us that cardboard orders fell by 13% last quarter. Yeah. Apparently, there's been a problem. a pullback in shipping paper and it's happening nationwide. Here's why that's important. You can't ship stuff without packages. It's actually pretty straightforward. There's not much more we have to say that.

Like, you're not going to get that slam and salmon sweater on your front porch unless someone is making the cardboard for that package. Yeties, we told you last year that UPS and FedEx, those shipping companies, they don't measure the number of packages going around in the economy. They measure the economy itself. Exactly. That was our takeaway last year. Because if shipping business slows, that's an early indication that the economy is slowing. Okay, but here's what Jack and I are thinking. If Packaging Corp of America is selling less cardboard, then isn't that an even earlier sign that something is up in the economy?

It's an even earlier sign that the economy is slowing. Hold on to your duct tape. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Packaging Corp of America? This is our first ever leading, leading indicator. Yeti's UPS and FedEx, those shipping companies are considered by economists to be leading indicators. Because their data gives us an early indication of future economic spending. UPS can't ship a package until a business buys package material from packaging Corp of America. So facto, packaging Corp of America predicts the economy's direction before UPS can.

Yet he's packaging Corp of America. It is a crystal ball. I'm sorry, a cardboard crystal ball into the entire physical goods economy. And the 13% drop in cardboard sales, It's not a good sign for FedEx, Amazon, or any company that sells physical stuff with a package. Bessies, this isn't just a leading indicator. This is a leading, leading, leading indicator. A leading, leading, indicator. Dude, you cut yourself off. You cut yourself off. Say it again. A leading, leading indicator. Exactly. A leading, leading indicator.

For our second story, after four years, Tiffany's is reopening its flagship New York City store on Fifth Avenue, this week. But Tiffany's didn't just build a store. Tiffany's built a museum. They built a museum. But before we jump into this, Jack, I mean, look, to all the European yetis out there, we know, we get it. You dominate, you dominate the luxury industry. You guys win it. You win it. The French, the Italians, and to a lesser extent, the Brits, they own the runway. You guys got the Gucci's. We got the Fuchis. That's the deal. If you don't have a chateau and Santropay, you better have a villa on Lake Come on. And you better give us a ring from a Beezza while you're at. But nearly 100 years ago, America's one luxury icon wanted to make a big statement.

We've got Tiffany's jewelry. Tiffany's, they built their flagship store on 57th Street and 5th Avenue right over in Midtown Manhattan, New York City. That was in 1940 that they built that building. But this Friday, they reopened that flagship store after a four-year facelift. And now, Jack, we should sprinkle on a little context here because Tiffany isn't like totally American anymore. We should, we should mention that. Yeah, you know how Nick said we've got Tiffany's? LVMH actually has Tiffany's.

Yeah, the French luxury group, LVMH, they just actually became the first European company to hit a $500 billion valuation and they own Tiffany now. About Tiffany in 2021. Well, when it comes to the new Tiffany store, LVMH spared no expense when it came to this new New York City, Pieda.

So, Nick, let's take a second to describe the experience. of this flagship store. It was unlike things we had seen before, after you, Jack. Picture the new Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, but instead of baseballs and peanuts, bracelets and pearls. I like where you're going. Because Yetis, like the new Yankee Stadium in New York, Tiffany's new flagship is huge.

It's 10,000 square feet across 10 floors. And like the new Yankee Stadium, this new store honors its history. You can still order breakfast at Tiffany's from the cafe at Tiffany's. And like the Yankees jerseys, they're still using their classic Tiffany's blue color. Tiffany's turquoise blue. It's been their brand since 1837. Remember, the key to branding, you gotta have some tension.

So along with the old stuff, they've sprinkled in some new stuff too. This flagship store features a collection of 40 pieces of modern art owned by the LVMH Empire. This new Tiffany store features 4,090 light fixtures to illuminate the thousands of gemstones and precious metals. The sconces have sconces. And there's a 140. 44-step eight-story staircase that spirals up to the middle like a tower.

Besties add all of this up. And honestly, the CEO of Tiffany really put it best. How'd they put it? If you don't surprise your clients, then you're not a luxury business. Or actually, is Jack and I like to put it, which we think works really well. Retail's not dead. Bad retail's dead. Retail's not dead.

Bad retail's dead. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Tiffany? A museum is the crown jewel achievement for any brand. My Yetis, guess who's going to visit this store more than customers? Tourists. It's going to be the tourists. I don't plan to buy anything there, but I do plan to go there. Because Yetis, you don't go to this new Tiffany store to just buy something.

You go to this store to take a look like a museum. That's right. This flagship store, it's not just a store for selling products. It is a shrine for worshiping products and architecture. Yeah, the way we see it, this is like seeing the Mona Lisa at the Louvre. That's why you're going. You're not buying the Mona Lisa. And it's not just Tiffany that has a museum.

Porsche has one in Germany. Harley Davidson has one in Wisconsin, and Coca-Cola's got one in Atlanta. In fact, just a few months ago, we told you about Trader Joe's launching a Trader Joe's grocery store hall of fame. When a brand builds a museum, it confirms that you don't have customers, you actually have fans. And that is why a museum is the crown jewel achievement of any brand. For our third and final story, Jack and I jumped into the big bank earnings, And we noticed that Americans are moving a lot of money around.

They're moving that money to high yield savings options. But we have a message for four out of five Americans. Yeah. The interest is worth the effort. Your interest in interest is worth the effort. Yet is American money has never moved as much as it has moved in the past two months. The money is moving here. It is moving there.

There's like money moving everywhere, every single place. First, some Americans move money away from the small banks and the regional banks to the very, very big banks. Yeah, that's because Silicon Valley Bank kind of freaked you out. You wanted the safety of a big bank that was too big to fail. Get this.

We just learned how much money was moved out of First Republic Bank, which people also thought was going to go under. And how much money was it, Jack? $100 billion of deposits was withdrawn from First Republic Bank last quarter. First Republic Bank stock fell 50% yesterday. On Word, it lost almost half its deposits

in three months. Also, even... the big strong banks. Like not First Republic Bank, even like J.P. Morgan Chase is seeing customers move their money away from their accounts. Honestly, that was a shocker too. According to Bloomberg estimates, over half a trillion dollars was moved out of U.S. banks in just the first quarter. Half a trillion dollars. That is so much money that was moving out of bank accounts in the last quarter. And why were so many Americans just moving money around over there, Jack? Because every American with money in the bank right now is searching for yield.

Ladies, Jack and I know you. It turns out Americans are very interested in interest right now. You are interested in interest right now. And if you're not, you should be. You should get interested in interest. It's something to be interested in. But interest is a new thing for us, millennials. From 2008 to 2021, interest rates were pretty much zero for those entire 14 years.

When interest rates are that low, it's great that you can take out a loan at a cheap price, but it's not great that your cash and your savings account isn't earning. much money. But now that the Fed is obsessed with hiking interest rates, our cash in our bank accounts can earn cash for it. It's a beautiful thing. It's called passive income because your money just passively chills there making money, not actively doing anything to make money. It's like being a landlord or something. You can just make money doing nothing. Not too shabby. Now Yeties, the big banks, they hope that you just keep your money where it is and don't move anything. For most big banks, they're not offering you any yield in your account right now. But disruptor banks with FDIC insurance

are offering 4% or more on interest these days. You want 0% from your old bank or 4% from a new bank. Like we said, you should get interested in interest right now. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone with a checking account? The interest is worth the effort. Okay, Yeties, we were shocked. We were surprised. We sat down, stood up and sat back down immediately. when we heard this day. We just read that only one out of five Americans is getting that yield. According to bank rate, only 21% of Americans with savings accounts are getting interest rates of 3% or more right now.

That means 4 out of 5 of us are getting less than 3%. We could be getting more, but we're not. So why are Americans not making moves to get a higher interest rate? It's because it takes some effort. Yeah, maybe it's the effort. Maybe that's why people aren't doing it. They're switching costs to this. It's kind of a pain to open a new bank account.

then you got to move your money over there. So Nick and I crunch the numbers. At a 4% interest rate, every $1,000 of savings would earn $40 a year in interest. We repeat yet, you at a 4% interest rate, every $1,000 of your savings would earn $40 a year. Let's go to the whiteboard, do some simple math. That means $5,000 in savings earns $200 a year. And that means $10,000 in savings would earn $400 a year. It's up to you to do a cost-benefit analysis if the cost of moving the money is worth that new

interest rate. But honestly, when you crunch the numbers, the interest looks like it may be worth the effort. 400 bucks a year, not too shabby. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us over there? Before a product gets sold, it needs to be shipped. But before it shipped, it needs a box. And that is why packaging Corp of America is a leading, leading, leading indicator. A leading, leading, indicator. Exactly. A leading, leading indicator. For our second story, Tiffany's just opened up a mecca for precious metals. their renovated flagship store in New York City. Because a museum is the crown jewel achievement for any brand.

And our third and final story, the big bank earnings show that Americans are moving money looking for that yield. And the interest, it is worth the effort. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Alana Jackson from right down the street in San Francisco, California. Push and play. Here we go. Hi, Eddie's, hi besties.

Today is not food waste day. So I wanted to share three facts about food waste you probably didn't know. One, a third of food goes to waste meaning no one is eating it. 40% of that waste is coming from our households. And when that waste inevitably ends up in the landfill, it rots creating a greenhouse gas called methane, which is 80 times more potent than CO2. You know, Nick, I've always been a big doggy bag guy and a big Tupperware guy, too.

I don't blame you. But did you hear I just started composting? Yeah, I'm going to brag about it. I mean, the best part about composting is you get to tell people that you're composting. The second most satisfying part is the feeling of crushing an eggshell in your hand, because that's what you have to do before compost. And then telling millions of people on a podcast the next day. Yetes, you look fantastic out there. And if you've got a shout-out, you want to get on the pod.

If you've got a fact of the day, you want to get on the pod, what should you do, Jack? Go to t-boypod.com. We have a tab on the website called shout-outs. You can fill out an easy form. Go to t-boypod.com. If you know, you know. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. Can't wait.

And before we go, a happy birthday and a happy birthday to Yeti's Cameron and Kimberly Barton, two twins from lovely Spring, Texas. Happy 24th birthday to Benjamin Palmer in Ogden, Utah. And Trevor Wilson has never missed an episode of this show, has got his first birthday as a married man down in Dallas. And happy one week birthday to Jack Watson Mangano, a little guy over there in Cituit, Massachusetts. Just outside of Boston by a little bit. And congratulations.

to Michelle Benz, who just got promoted in Tulsa, Oklahoma. And congratulations to Bestie Jason Mud, who just got named North America's top PR person by the World Communications Forum. Jason, feel free to slide into our DMs. And a shout out to Yeti Jacob Mendoza, who finally got his T-Boy hat in Omaha, Nebraska, and he's wearing it right now. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-Boy.

And to anyone else wearing their T-boy merch, you look fantastic. Nick and I are both decked out. We're feeling good. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Disney and Amazon. Hey, question for you.

Yes. Does my skin look oily? I don't see anything unusual. Okay. Is there something unusual about today? No, you know, I'd put on, I'd just been putting on more sunscreen than usual. And it feels oilier to me, even though it's super goop. But maybe I was just paying more attention to it.

It constantly stings my eyes. I'm trying out this new product called Summer Fridays. You know you're not supposed to put in your eyes, right? It seems. No, Jack, it goes everywhere except the eyes. Did you misread the instructions? Jack putting on sunscreen. Honey, a little more in my retina.