The Big Picture - 2020 Golden Globes Predictions | The Big Picture

Episode Date: January 3, 2020

The new year is here, and with it the most fraught awards show of the season. Ricky Gervais returns to host and Sean and Amanda return to make some (probably wrong) predictions. They look at every big race, including the complicated showdowns of Best Director and Best Drama. Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelley, and welcome to The Ringer Podcast Network. We've published some great episodes in the month of December, including a rewatchables with Quentin Tarantino on Dunkirk, Sean Fennessy sat down with Greta Gerwig to talk about her new film Little Women on The Big Picture, and Adam Sandler and Kevin Garnett appeared on the Bill Simmons podcast to talk about their newest film, Uncut Gems. Happy New Year from The Ringer. I'm Sean Fennessey. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about predicting the results of an award show we do not respect. That's right, Amanda. The Golden Globes are nearly here. They are the conclusion of one of the more fun weekends of the year.

We'll have NFL wildcard weekend starting and then this bad award show. Fun for you. A nightmare for me. I will go straight from the Eagles, which my husband is too invested in, into Ricky Gervais' Holstein in the Golden Globes. So prepare for a Sunday night attitude from Amanda. Yes, I will be preparing for a weird attitude, likely from Ricky Gervais, one of the more unusual figures to host an award show

in the last 10 or 20 years. He's back hosting the Golden Globes. We're going to be predicting the results of some of these races, which are chosen by 91 mysterious foreign journalists. Gervais was selected by these people to host this show in part because he has been the host of some successful editions of the Golden Globes.

Last year was a different kind of Golden Globes. You may recall it was hosted by Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh. I have to be honest, I did not recall that until you said it just now. I think that that, I thought that that was going to signal a kind of new way forward for the Golden Globes. I don't know, not necessarily a more progressive way forward, but just a different kind of approach to hosting. Alas, Gervais is back. What's your take on Ricky Gervais these days? Why are we still doing this? I mean, that's kind of where I am.

I just, like, no thanks. I've moved on. I think we as a TV and awards-watching community have moved on. It feels stale, and he feels like just kind of trying to hold on to whatever influence he had like 10 years ago. He still has a huge following and I think he's still a very successful comedian per se, but he feels very fake controversial as a professional now where sort of everything he does is more of a provocation than a joke, which is not really where you want to be. Now, famously on this award show,

he's quite sharp elbowed. He takes shots at celebrities as opposed to patting them on the back as many Golden Globes hosts have in the past. I guess this is fine. You know, you think like, what happens when Ricky Gervais crosses a line and we have an outrage moment?

How will we handle that in this otherwise very convivial award show? I don't think people will care. There will be the requisite op-eds or takes or whatever. handle that in this otherwise very convivial award show? I don't think people will care. There will be the requisite op-eds or takes or whatever, and perhaps that will distract from whatever terrible awards the Hollywood Foreign Press gives out. And maybe we'll put all of our anger into that, and then we can just have an awards show. Maybe it's a nice way of dividing the components. Do you think Ricky Gervais was up for the Joker in Joker? Do you think he was auditioning against Joaquin? No, I don't. Okay.

He would have been an interesting Joker. Maybe he was auditioning for the penguin, you know, in the new one because everyone wanted to be the penguin. It's very rude. Well, okay. You know, this is a movie podcast, but there are also a bunch of TV awards at the Golden Globes. I haven't really paid much attention to the TV awards, nor will we really be prognosticating, but do you have any sense of what's going to go down here TV-wise? What were the big shows in 2019? Succession and Fleabag.

Will those shows win awards? Well, Succession might. Succession is nominated in Drama, along with Big Little Lies, The Crown, Killing Eve, and wait for it, The Morning Show! Oh my goodness, it's very early. I just have to say that I watched the last two episodes of The Morning Show, and whew! Do not believe all the critics who came late to it and were like, wow, The Morning Show has really become an investigation of Me Too culture. Friends, a dog wrote the last two episodes of The Morning Show.

But anyway, I still watched all of it. You could see it winning, but you could also see, you know, The Crown seems like a very obvious one. You could also see Succession winning because the Golden Globes likes, especially in the TV area, to get out ahead of the Emmys. Yes. And Succession has not yet won the major Emmy award. This would be an announcement of Succession as sort of the Emmys. Yes. And Succession has not yet won the major Emmy award. Right. This would be an announcement of Succession as sort of the next great television show on prestige cable.

Yeah. Whether that's still the case, given the way that Netflix and Amazon and all the other streamers have kind of barreled through the doors now, will be interesting to see. You know, this is really weird. Best TV drama actress Jennifer Aniston, Olivia Colman, Jodie Comer, this is really weird. Best TV drama actress, Jennifer Aniston, Olivia Colman, Jodie Comer, Nicole Kidman, Reese Witherspoon, two nominations for the morning show. There are more. Billy Crudup is nominated for the morning show. If Billy Crudup wins for the morning show, I take back, um, half of everything I've said about the Hollywood

Ford Press Association. This is very strange. Maybe that's enough on TV awards. What else do we really want to say? It's not going to make any sense. I want great things for Succession and Fleabag. Everything else I don't really care about. Let's start with something movie-wise that I think is very relevant to this show. Do you think that this award show in general is impactful on the Oscar narrative? In general or this year? Well, let's start with in general. Yes, I do, because it just seizes attention for a certain amount of time at a crucial moment. And the awards are as much about attention economy as they are anything else. There are a lot of movies to see. There are a lot of voters who haven't quite caught up and are like, oh, I guess I should check

this out. And sometimes I think it's reactive. Something wins and people are like, I don't know about that. I'm going to make sure that I invest the other way. But there isn't a fanfare around it. Everyone shows up for these and it's televised. And I just think the timing, especially, you can't help. Even if you're like, this doesn't matter, I'm ignoring it. We spend so much time talking about it. I do think it matters. So last year, of course, Green Book won Best Drama and Bohemian Rhapsody won Best Musical or Comedy, though I would argue that Green Book is a comedy and Bohemian Rhapsody is neither a musical comedy nor drama. Those two films obviously competed heavily and won quite heavily at the Academy Awards. Do you think that the results this year will sincerely affect the

Oscars? Yes, because the awards season is much shorter this year. Nominations are in what? Voting begins today. That's insane. It's so fast and it's so compressed. And I do feel like everyone feels like they're playing catch up. I'm still playing catch up on a couple of the non-marquee categories. And I just think people will use this as a bellwether and also as an instruction manual of, okay, now I got to go watch these three. Or I didn't like that this one, so I'm going to do this. I don't know that it's one-to-one, but, yeah, I think they're important. Would you argue that this is the most consequential Golden Globes in recent years?

I guess so, yes. How strange. How strange for us to have devoted so much of our lives to this. It is. How do we let this happen? And I think you and I talked about this early in the morning when the nominations were announced of how have we allowed this group of people who tweeted airlines to become the major Oscar deciders? It's a very curious thing. Sometimes they do get stuff right. Yeah.

And sometimes they do vote in a manner that I think suggests like a clear narrative will be taking hold on something. You know, this year, there's an expectation and I'm getting ahead of myself, but there's an expectation

that Brad Pitt will win Best Supporting Actor. Brad Pitt is the consensus favorite among almost every person I've talked to to win Best Supporting Actor. Now, that may not ultimately be the case. Maybe Al Pacino comes by. Maybe Joe Pesci comes by. Maybe Anthony Hopkins comes by. Who knows? It's a stacked category. But among all the punditry

for both the Oscars and the Golden Globes that I've read, everyone agrees it's Brad Pitt. Now, part of that is because he's uber famous, and the uber famous is usually awarded here. Also, the ingenue is usually awarded here. Also, the ingenue is usually awarded here. The Morning Show is sort of an ingenue at the Golden Globes this year. Wow. Maybe a young performer who has never had a chance to win something before will also win here tonight. Should we start with our predictions? Yes. Okay. The first category we're going to talk about is best motion picture foreign language. Now now this is notable because there is no universe in which this can reflect the oscar nominations because there are two candidates here from france so our can also the farewell will not qualify as

foreign language the first first nominee is the farewell pedro amadovar's pain and glory celine sciamma's portrait of a lady on Fire, Bong Joon-ho's Parasite, and Lajli's La Mis. What does your heart tell you about this category? I think this has to be Parasite. I think so too, but... Okay. It's an international body. They've chosen two films from France, and they've basically chosen an American production,

a co-production in The Farewell which is very popular. Yes. Seen by a great many people. Yes. They've been campaigning quite a bit. Yes. Also,

Pedro Almodovar. All true. Possibly the most celebrated non-American filmmaker of the last 20 years, 25 years.

Maybe I'm overstating it. He's certainly in the conversation. Top five. I think that's all true. All great films. Parasite is not eligible in either drama or best picture drama or best picture comedy because it's a foreign language film because that's how the Golden Globes work.

And Bong Joon-ho is nominated for Best Director and Parasite is also nominated for a screenplay, which just signals to me that they really like Parasite. And this is a place where they can award Parasite. So you put your finger on something interesting which is that people tend to look at the number of nominations especially amongst the small body like this as a clear indication of preference over other movies. So if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has five nominations at the Golden Globes

that must mean it's a frontrunner in every category. Do you think that's true? Not in every category but I think that it means that there is interest in the film and that it will probably win something. I'm also kind of triangulating in my picks because I don't think, I think that they do try to actually sprinkle out awards among the movies that they do like. So, no spoilers, but I think this is where Parasite will triumph because it may not win other places. Interesting. I, too, am going with Parasite.

I think it would be insane to not go with Parasite, though. I will be devil's advocating my way through this whole conversation. It's always fun to podcast and live life with you, Sean. Best motion picture animated, Amanda's favorite category. Frozen 2, How to Train Your Dragon, The Hidden World, Missing Link, Toy Story 4, and The Lion King, which I find to be the funniest nomination here because The Lion King was not submitted as Best Animated Feature to the Academy. Nevertheless, the Globes has decided to nominate it here.

What do you think? Toy Story 4? Yes, I think that has to be the only answer. I think that's the only truly beloved film on this lineup. I think that's the only both critical and commercial success that tends to be the kind of film that wins best animated feature, which is one of the more interesting features of the animated feature categories to me is that very rarely do films that are,

you know, not commercially successful win. But also you can't just be commercially successful. You have to be a masterpiece in the zone, which is why Pixar wins all the time. I think Pixar has won almost every year at the Golden Globe since its inception, except for last year when, do you know what won? No. Sorry. Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse. Oh, yeah, that's right.

Oh, yeah, that was a good movie. That was a great movie. Toy Story 4. That's a boring category. Hopefully, they put that one way up front. Best original song motion picture. The nominees are Beautiful Ghosts from Cats, a boring category. Hopefully they put that one up way up front. Best original song motion picture. The nominees are Beautiful Ghosts from Cats, which I believe was written by Taylor Swift and Andrew Lloyd Webber. It was. A thing that happened in the universe in 2019. We sat through

that entire movie. Not only did we sit in it, we podcasted about it. And then I had several conversations over the holidays about it. Really? Yeah. People being like, is this real? Should I see it? I didn't have a sickle conversation. No curiosity about cats in my family. So you're saying it did not kill the cats. No, remember I did have one because I was telling my mother all about it. And I was like, I wasn't there with your mother. I know, but I told you, I asked my mother, I was like, do you remember taking me to see cats? And she said, yes, I did. And I was like, why did you do that? And it was really upsetting. And my mom just kind of, there was like a pause.

And my mom just goes, the thing is, it was good. Well, fair enough. Perhaps she should be the third host of this show. So, Beautiful Ghosts from Cats. I'm Gonna Love Me Again, Rocketman, which was written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin. Into the Unknown, Frozen 2. Spirit from The Lion King, performed by Beyonce. And Stand Up from Harriet, performed by Cynthia Erivo.

Hmm. Hmm. You're doing piano hands? What are you doing? I guess they're like upside down scales. I see. But they are piano because I am sort of leaning towards Elton John. You did pick up

on the body language there. Sounds like Lady Justice has spoken. I agree. I think I'm going to love me again from Rocketman is likely the leading

candidate here. It wouldn't shock me to see Spirit win. I think there's something about getting Beyonce on stage or acknowledging Beyonce in some way

that would be meaningful. But it feels like an Elton John moment. They've really been working it with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Do you think there's an either-or aspect to the two Rocketman nominations here between Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy in this category, the same way you see one with Parasite? Yes, I do.

Okay, so you see Rocketman here. Yes, I do. Interesting. Okay, Best Original Score Motion Picture, you see Rocketman here? Yes, I do. Interesting. Okay. Best original score motion picture, also one of my favorite categories historically, Alexander Desplat, Little Women, Hildur, Guana Dutir, Joker, Randy Newman, Marriage Story, Randy Newman's cousin, Thomas Newman, 1917, and Daniel Pemberton, Motherless Brooklyn, one of the more unusual nominees in the field this year, Daniel Pemberton. Hmmless Brooklyn, one of the more unusual nominees in the field this year,

Daniel Pemberton. Hmm. I like all of these. They're great scores. We're not, for the most part, you and I are not assigning value when we make our predictions. No, no, but I don't like all,

like I don't like all the animated feature nominees. Nor do I. No, that I know. But I do quite like all of these scores. Yes. Even Joker, which I think has become almost like parodied at this point. I think what the woman who created the score, who also made the score for Chernobyl earlier or earlier last year, I should say, has a very distraught and intense and quiet and

sort of punishing style, cello driven style. But I think it's quite effective in the movie. This is a tricky one, though, because I feel like it's sort of a three-headed race. I think Desplat, who is much decorated, and the Newman cousins, who are beloved, are all running kind of even here. So this is a tough one to pick. If you're going to lay a wager down on Kajem's style, do not parlay with best original score. That's my advice.

Okay. What are parlay with best original score. That's my advice. Okay. What are you going with? I agree that it's tricky, and I basically think the Newmans are going to cancel each other out, and I'm going with this plot. Because it is also, in categories like this, the Golden Globes tend to be, all of War's Bodies tend to be a bit traditionalist.

And it's a lovely score but it's also familiar and again if they're kind of spreading words around I don't know I could be wrong so at the Oscars there's an expectation that Thomas Newman will be awarded here because he has been nominated like 17 times he's never won this of course is not the Oscars yeah there's a part of me that thinks Randy Newman's gonna to take this down. I could see it. Famous person. Great score. Tremendous score. Holds up well as an independent listen.

And also stands out. If anyone in the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is actually watching the movie the second time, they will be like, wow, this amazing score. Yeah. I think one of the trickinesses of these three leading candidates is that they all do significantly elevate the film. Thomas Newman's score is much more driving and massive. It's big. It's not afraid to be classical movie music. Actually, that's something that Quentin Tarantino on the rewatchables, when we did it with him,

he talked about Hans Zimmer's score on Dunkirk. And much of the score is almost like a captured sound. It sounds like a ticking clock. But then there was one triumphant moment when we see the boats in the distance coming towards dunkirk and movie music quote-unquote movie music this you know swelling sound hits that's what thomas newman does randy newman does something smaller more intimate underlines character alexander des plot does something that is about energy that drives the movie forward it's fast it's pe's peppy. It's still elegant, but it's entertaining just to listen to in that way. I'm going with Randy Newman. I think that's a smart pick. Okay.

That would be my other pick. That's my number two. Okay. So you'll go Des Plot. I'll go Randy Newman. Keep it interesting. Best screenplay. This, as we've said many times in the past, is the cool guy, cool gal category.

Does that apply as much as the Golden Globes? This is not a bad collection of nominees. No, but in terms of the winners. Well, the key distinction here is that there's only one category. There's no best adapted plus best original. Now, historically, I think best original screenplay at the Oscars is the very best category. That is where you go to get your movie recommendations, at least from my vantage point. Here, we've got one film that is an adaptation, The Irishman, on the list. And we've got, you know, a lot of, you know,

The Two Popes is sort of docudrama-esque. I suppose it is original, but it is based on a real-life event. Once Upon a Time and Its Way is based on a real-life event. Let's just read the nominees. No Bumbach Marriage Story, Bong Joon-ho and Han Jun-woon for Parasite, Anthony McCartan for The Two Popes, Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Stephen Zalian for The Irishman. This is really tricky.

There's some conventional wisdom here. Okay. Do you want to know what it is? Sure. Many, many people, many people are saying. Oh, great. Well, it's understood that Noah Baumbach is going to win this because he's not recognized for

Best Director. And to your point about picking and choosing your spots where to recognize certain films to get as many different kinds of films in the mix. People think Noah Baumbach is going to win this. That is my pick also. I guess I am just a boring person who follows conventional wisdom but i think marriage story is nominated i think it has the most nominations

of any film or it's up there yes and it is also just so written you know the screenplay is what is kind of what leads everything else in in this movie and you can see them wanting to give him something and going with this. But it is tough. Like, obviously, they really love Parasite. You can, you know, you could see the two popes happening for reasons passing understanding. I mean, let's just, Green Book won in this category last year. It also won the Oscar. I know. I somehow feel, I mean, you could see Tarantino, though, no spoilers on the picks. I feel like if they're trying to spread things out.

Quentin Tarantino, I believe, has won three times in this category. Never in Best Director. Notable. I'm going to Houndback. I feel similarly boring by making that choice. But that does feel like the direction we're moving in. It also feels like the direction we're moving in at the Oscars. Yeah. We'll see. So we'll go Boundback. Before we get into the big time categories and the acting categories, let's take a quick break to hear a word from our sponsor.

Today's episode of The Big Picture is brought to you by Bose. Bose AR is a first of its kind platform-kind platform that is an audio-first approach to augmented reality. Bose AR-enabled products have motion sensors embedded inside that can detect your head orientation and body movement while you wear them. AR-enhanced apps can then use this information to offer you tailored audio content. Disney and Bose are working together to bring fans a new immersive audio experience based on the beloved Star Wars movies. Available in the official Star Wars app and exclusively for Bose AR-enabled devices, fans can journey through an immersive 360-degree audio augmented reality timeline of Rey's lightsaber with spatialized sound for unique gesture-driven interaction

where the user can freeze the scene, move toward elements, hear new content, and experience the story from new angles. I just got a copy of my Bose AR for Star Wars usage and I'll be, I don't know, maybe checking out the Empire Strikes Back this weekend before settling in for some football. So to celebrate this partnership, Bose will also be releasing a limited edition Star Wars QC35 headphones too. Visit Bose.com backslash big picture to learn more. Okay, Amanda, we're back. We're into the big categories.

Best actor in a supporting role in any motion picture. I've already sent some thoughts your way on this. Yeah, do you want to read the nominees? Yeah, I'll read the nominees. Tom Hanks' A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Remember that movie? I do. A fine film.

I thought Tom Hanks was excellent in it, and I was very moved by it. I agree. Anthony Hopkins' The Two Popes, Al Pacino, The Irishishman joe pesci the irishman and brad pitt once upon a time in hollywood i also think it's going to be brad pitt so can i use this space to ask you what you think brad pitt's like award season look is going to be oh well i can tell you what i wish it were yeah well i can tell you what it was when I encountered him earlier last year. Sure. He's been doing a great Q&A look.

He finally traded the newsboy hat for kind of a flat, somewhere between a fedora and a cowboy hat. So unfortunately, I didn't get that. I got the newsboy hat. Right. Which was fine. It changed in December. I like the new hat. Yeah.

I think he was wearing boots, denim, a smart, probably quite expensive t-shirt. Yeah. And then a very elegant sort of like suede jacket over it. Yes. Handsome fellow. He really can make anything look good. Very kind. I wish he wore like a crushed green velvet with a shawl collar, with a black shawl collar.

That's like a look that I would like to wear to work every day. It seems possible. I do think he will actually dress up for the award ceremonies. Do you think more than the traditional black tux? That would be fun. I am informed by people who follow these things that he is really bringing the men's style right now. So, you know, maybe he'll, apparently those t-shirts are quite designery and expensive. So. What does that mean? Like a tunic? Like what can we expect?

No, but I think something beyond like a classic black tux. So maybe he'll just kind of lean into the one spot of time of it all and go super classic. What about like a big floppy bow tie? No. Ruffles? No, I don't, I don't want that. Sky blue, like a Dummy Gummer style tuxedo? I understand. I don't understand. But I imagine that if you are Brad Pitt, it's very hard. It's annoying to be that handsome all the time and have people wanting you to look great and be an object all the time. I don't think that's annoying.

I think it's fairly effortless for him. I think like if you're going to like the grocery store, which I'm sure he doesn't do, but you know. No, he does not. Anyway, it's like every day, sometimes you just want to be gross. I get it, but. Cannot relate to that. I would, and I feel like the hats that he has them in every color are like protective gear. So he doesn't have to be like Brad Pitt all of the time.

But I'm just asking him for the next five weeks, be Brad Pitt. The hat enthusiasm is a little bit funny to me because he's got a great head of hair. You know, he's a man in his 50s. His hair seems lush and thick. Yeah. As thick as you want it to be when you're in your 50s. And why wear a hat?

Why cover it up? Because some days it's off days. Some days he's like, I don't want to be the sexiest man alive. I'm on the record about George Clooney being my hair icon, but Brad Pitt has hair versatility. He can wear his hair in a great many styles and look good in all of them. That's special stuff. That is true. That's because he is possibly the most attractive human being on the planet.

Okay, so Brad Pitt. Sometimes he just wants to be a normal guy and wears a hat. You're just speculating. No, I've thought a lot about it. Okay. We're both going with Brad Pitt. I would be happy with virtually any person here, but I suspect that we're getting Pitt. Yeah.

Best actress in a supporting role in any motion picture. The nominees are Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell, Annette Bening for The Report, Laura Dern for Marriage Story, Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers, and Margot Robbie for Bombshell. Hmm. This is where it gets interesting. Yes. Conventional wisdom is that Laura Dern is going to win the Oscar in this category. Laura Dern, who is on the board of governors at the Oscars, is beloved in the film community

and also happens to be one of the best actors of her generation. And I think that's great. I agree, though it certainly sounds think that's great. I agree. Though it certainly sounds like that's not who you're picking here. Yeah. I made my picks yesterday and I woke up this morning and I was like, Chaos Agent Amanda has logged on in 2020. You're going Kathy Bates? No.

Going Annette Bening. I'd like to apologize for all the things I said about her absolutely nothing performance in the report. She's so rude to Annette Bening for no reason. Annette Bening is wonderful. She just like wears a wig and like reads documents. One of the more curious and unnecessarily rude takes of 2019 that has carried over to 2020. Not rude. I just want more for Annette Bening. Okay. So my instinct is that you're saying Jennifer Lopez, due to her star power and the grace of her performance in Hustlers, is going to take the statue.

I think so, but like, honestly, I could see Margot Robbie. Hmm. Well, she is currently on the cover of Variety. Yes, she is. Interesting trifecta of cover stories today that maybe we'll talk about a little bit. One is Ricky Gervais,

of course, the host of the show. He's on The Hollywood Reporter. One is Martin Scorsese on the cover of the art section of The New York Times. Not a mistake, timing-wise. These things are strategic, people. And number three is Margot Robbie on the cover of Variety. Now, there's two reasons for that. And Margot Robbie has emerged as a very smart cookie in Hollywood. Kate Arthur wrote this story, and the thing that it essentially focuses on is the production company that she started that employs mostly women,

that seeks out female screenwriters, female directors, and gets films made. Birds of Prey, the forthcoming DC movie that is a sort of quasi-continuation of Suicide Squad and the Harley Quinn character, comes out in one month. Two days before the Academy Awards. She also happens to be in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,

which is one of the prospective frontrunners or best picture among other categories. Margot Robbie, speaking of triangulation, she's playing chess right now. Yeah. This is really, this is special stuff i love when famous people seem like they know what they're doing yes she really seems like she knows what she's doing yes and is she likely to win this category absolutely not okay but is it possible

i just i i think it's possible and i think i'm gonna pick jennifer lopez but when margot robbie wins on sunday night i'm gonna be like damn it Do you think that will tilt the axis of the Oscars conversation or is it still Laura Dern? I don't. I think it's Laura Dern for every single reason that you just mentioned. Big fan of Margot Robbie. I'm going with Jennifer Lopez as well because I think people want to see Jennifer Lopez on TV and she gives a very good performance. I think, as we said when Hustlers came out, this is the most Golden Globes performance of all time.

Yeah, I think that's right. Okay. Next category, best actor in a motion picture, musical, or comedy. This is a curious one. I think I know where you're going based on some previous categories and conversation. We shall see. Okay. The nominees are Daniel Craig for Knives Out,

Roman Griffin Davis for Jojo Rabbit, Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Taron, is it Edgerton or Egerton? I still can't figure it out. I didn't Google it ahead of time. Let's just say Edgerton. Okay. For Rocketman and Eddie Murphy and Dolomite is my name.

I was swayed this morning, actually. Oh. I've changed my mind. Wow. Chaos Agent Sean. I wouldn't say that. That's not really how my brain works. But I did reconsider all of my choices.

Where's your head at? I'm going Eddie Murphy. That is also where I am. Yeah. Part of it was Saturday Night Live. I had all of the cast conversations that you had, I had about Eddie Murphy on Saturday Night Live. I loved it. I thought it was absolutely wonderful. I was so happy. During the whole episode, but especially the Gumby bit on Weekend Update, I was like, this is my favorite thing ever.

The Gumby character is so weird and so not 2019, 2020. It's literally eddie murphy an african-american playing an old jew as gumby that's amazing and people were like this is great there was no like should we cancel eddie murphy bullshit no it was just like this is funny it was him just annihilating michael che and colin jost which is something that a lot of other people want to do as well the whole setup was so wonderful i loved it and i And I think it did its job. It did the job that you and I predicted it would do for months and months, which is remind people why they love Eddie Murphy. And the whole point of Dolomite Is My Name, in many ways, aside from telling the true life story of Rudy Ray Moore, is to remind people that they love Eddie Murphy. Yes. It's the, aren't you glad

to have him back? And Saturday Night Live was, yes, everyone is extremely glad to have him back. Now, Eddie Murphy has been working hard on the trail, not as hard as the Rocket Man. That's so true. The Rocket Man isn't just running. He is sprinting towards something, maybe a statue, maybe obsolescence. It's impossible to say. I think he sprinted towards a nomination. Here he is.

Okay. And I'm sure that the camera will be on him and Elton John many, many times on Sunday night. We should parlay that at some point, the number of close-ups of various people on the Golden Globes, because I think that Tara and Edgerton will feature prominently. You should do some Amanda math on that one. Okay. Put some betting odds together. So there's an elephant in the room here. I think it's, would you call Leonardo DiCaprio an elephant? It's a Rick Dalton shaped elephant named Leonardo DiCaprio, who is among the most honored Golden Globes folks in the universe.

I think he's been nominated 13 times. He's won three times. The Globes loves Leo. And the Globes love Quentin Tarantino movies, historically. They recognize both of them with a fervor. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,

as I mentioned, frontrunner, really well-liked movie. Leo rules. Rick Dalton is one of my absolute favorite performances of his. And if we didn't deal with the whole Revenant spiel

three years ago, this would have been a great like glory moment for him, you know, because it is so representative of a lot of what we like about him and him going against type, but not so far against type that we don't recognize him. You know, for the Revenant, he had to disappear. That's not what we need from Leo. Yeah.

We need Leo to be beautiful and great. I think this is my second favorite Leo performance after Wolf of Wall Street and really just after the Quaalude scene. But if we're being completely honest. Yeah. But I kind of think he's going to get Titaniced this season. What do you mean by that? Which like everybody else wins stuff.

Oh. And he is carrying the movie and is kind of overlooked. Yeah. That's a good call. And it's one of those things that you'll look back on 25 years from now and you'll think, how could Leo not have won for that? But then he won a few years ago and so we're just overlooking it. Plus, you know, Leo probably not working as hard on the campaign trail. He worked very hard during the Revenant. He famously did every event because he just wanted to get over the hump and just move on with this. And he did. It worked. And I don't know. We'll see. If he was on stage

with a win, I wouldn't be shocked. No, it wouldn't be super surprising. I just kind of don't really. I feel like even in your irresponsible early Oscars predictions, when you were putting together your actor nominations, you didn't include Leo. Yeah, that was. Which, again, is not a reflection of your beliefs or voting, but just kind of how you see things shaking out. No, I mean, it's very hard to say because when you look at this category and the next category, I would say eight of the 10 candidates here are very credible for making best actor. So it's going to be dicey. I do love Leo. I just want to cite that quickly. Eddie Murphy, if he doesn't win, do you remember when Eddie Murphy was nominated for best supporting

actor for Dreamgirls and he didn't win and the camera held on his face and he was not happy? I do remember that. He was not a happy camper. If he doesn't win here, I think he's going to be not happy because it might spell doom for his Oscar campaign. I think that's true. I think if he doesn't win, there's no chance of an Oscar for him. Interesting. Okay. Next category. Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama. The nominees are Christian Bale for Ford vs. Ferrari, Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory, Adam Driver for Marriage Story, Joaquin Phoenix for Joker,

and Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes. Still have not talked about The Two Popes in depth on this show. What do you think is going to win? I think it's going to be Joaquin. It's definitely going to be Joaquin it's definitely gonna be joaquin i i really like joaquin i don't know why i had to say with that tone of voice but i was just hoping to leave this movie behind in 2019 you know new year new podcast but instead should amanda rewatch joker before the no don't want jesus christ it's like january 2nd come on let me live a little

let me let me let me. I think we're not done tangling with it. I liked his dancing. I liked it when he got in the fridge. I, you know, I thought that was very, that was relatable.

Me re-watching Joker is that scene. I'm just like throwing everything out of the fridge and then crawling inside of it. I, you know, as I said,

I found his weird sexual power in Joker to be unavoidable. Check out the hottest take on Spotify. You not liking Joker, but liking Joaquin's sexual energy in Joker. One of the weirdest things I've ever heard. I think that Joaquin Phoenix has a sexual energy that cannot be denied,

even when he's wearing clown makeup and in a movie that doesn't make sense. Watch me deny it. Okay. That's all I can say to you. All right. Obviously, this is between Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix.

Adam Driver having really one of the great acting movie years in recent history. Yes. You've got Marriage Story, of course, which I think is the coup de grace. You've got The Report and Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker. Say what you will about Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker, and we have said it all. Adam Driver is good. Yeah, he is. He is good in the movie.

Kylo Ren is, I think, the best part about the new trilogy. I think the casting of him was ingenious. I loved everything that they did with that character. I still think it's Joaquin Phoenix. Yeah. Same. Is that okay? What does okay mean?

Well, it means Joaquin might beat Adam Driver at the Oscars. Joaquin's never won an Oscar. I think I'm preparing myself for that emotionally. Okay. You can't get your hopes up. You can't get too invested because the Oscars will make you mad. Shall we go to best actress in a motion picture yes drama cynthia erivo for harriet scarlett johansson for marriage

story sersha ronan for little women charlize theron for bombshell and renee zellweger for judy how does it have some takes on this category ahead. I've not seen a soul predict anybody but Renee Zellweger. Yeah. Why? Because they like to do the consensus thing in the actor categories. We talked about this. Everyone just decides in September it'll be Joaquin Phoenix and Renee Zellweger. Why?

I don't, because, I don't know. Help me understand. Psychologically. Okay, people are lazy because people like to have things to root for. People, you know, just like we make narratives every day on this podcast. Help me understand. Psychologically. Remarkable. And I like I had a friend who finally saw it this weekend and texted me like, oh, so she'll win. And I was like, I guess so. You know, it's path of least resistance. But it's I wouldn't say that voters are particularly ambitious. So I agree with that. I just don't I don't know how this calcified so quickly. And maybe it maybe it didn't. Maybe she won't win here. Maybe she won't win the Oscar. You know, I think I did say that I could see this being a Glenn Close situation, the wife situation, where she wins everything up until the Oscars and then—

Who wins? Scar Jo? I mean, this is the other thing. As we were going through all the actor categories, the actress categories are tough. And I like all of these women and these performances. And it's just that they aren't getting the same roles this year. And it's kind of, when we talk about musical or comedy, yikes. Aren't there so many more shades, though, in Scarlett Johansson's performance and Saoirse Ronan's performance, even in Charlize's performance. I don't understand. I just don't understand this one. Yeah, but when have people,

you know, voted for shades and nuance versus total transformation? I think they're more likely to for men than for women is the thing. Okay. I think a big, bold,

brassy female performance tends to win. And even last year's race, those were two big, bold, brassy performances that were going neck and neck. Yeah, I guess it's Zellweger.

That just, when it comes to predictions and punditry, that's so dull. I just don't, let's mix it up. It is really boring.

I do think she'll win a Golden Globe and she could not win the Oscar. Okay. Because we have not really heard from her since Telluride, I guess.

It's true. She kind of came out storming. I was like, hmm, seems like I've got this and I just shouldn't talk anymore. And then she didn't. She got this nomination. She'll probably win. And then we got five weeks of drama.

You have four more categories to go. Mm-hmm. One more acting category. That is Best Actress in a motion picture, musical, or comedy. The nominees are Awkwafina for The Farewell, Ana de Armas for Knives Out, Cate Blanchett for Where'd You Go, Bernadette, Beanie Feldstein for Booksmart,

and Emma Thompson for Late Night. This, of course, to your point about the lack of abundancy for great female roles this year, identifies a bunch of very strange roles. I guess we should say the roles themselves are pretty good. I don't think some of these movies worked better than others. Let's put it that way. Yeah, I guess a lot of times you see a category that has a bunch of movies that are not recognized anywhere else. And you're like, hmm, that's not a good sign. You know, Late Night, Booksmart, and Where'd You Go Bernadette,

I think these are the only nominations for any of those films in any category. And then Knives Out, I'm delighted by the handful of nominations for Knives Out, but that's not likely to be a big-time Oscar film. It'd be cool if it was. I've made the case for why it should be number 10 this year. And Craig and Best Musical Comedy are it's recognized there and there is some feeling that Anna Diarmus may be the ingenue that I was referencing right earlier that she may be the person they decide to recognize my guess is that's not who you're going with

no you're going Awkwafina I'm actually not whoa I'm just like I said I woke up this morning and I was like let's make it interesting to your point I got a and I was like, let's make it interesting. To your point, I got a little bored. Shoot your shot. Let's make it interesting. I'm going with Beanie Feldstein. Oh, my gosh. I know that it's a—but I picked Beanie to be nominated, and you were like, what's wrong with you? And then she was nominated.

They like to do something super out of nowhere. Sure. She's very likable. She also is like kid of Hollywood, like recognizable, super bubbly. I just, this category is so all over the place.

I don't know. Why not? I'm not mad at it. You could see it happening. I'm not mad at it. I'm going Awkwafina, which is very chalky. That's a lot of,

a lot of the pundits have Awkwafina. Who knows? Could be Beanie I think it's more likely to be Ana de Armas okay next category

best director motion picture Bong Joon-ho for Parasite Sam Mendes for 1917 Todd Phillips for Joker Martin Scorsese for The Irishman Quentin Tarantino

for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood tides are turning on this one a little bit I don't know if you know that is that did that happen on the internet? On Twitter? Yeah.

Why don't you summarize for me? Just that everybody thinks Bong's going to win? Yeah, I did read that in some of the predictions. I could see it. That's not who I'm picking. What happens when... Will this be considered the introduction of American audiences to one of the great living filmmakers?

Or will this be seen as that weird year when a South Korean filmmaker somehow pierced the consciousness and then was never heard from again in this context, in this awards context? I would be surprised if it's the latter. You would? Yeah, because I think part of the appeal of Parasite is it has not been contained to, you know, awards, prestige, super highfalutin international feature, for lack of a better reason. You know, Bong has broader blockbuster appeal and people are receiving it that way. So I think also it's just, I don't think that a Bong movie will ever be like Endgame, but in the way that people who like to see movies

will continue to seek out his movies, I think. That part I definitely agree with. I just wonder whether it becomes like an object of fascination among this sort of collision of film, Twitter, and awards race-ologists. You know, that's a very specific. And frankly, just regular folks who went to go see it. Right. You know, we're talking about a lot of convergence. I mean, some of it does have to do with the fact that Parasite is just legitimately transcendent and is really good if he makes another Parasite, which is hard to do.

I think it's hard to make anything that excellent like three or four or five times in your life. I agree. But some of it is just like, wow, we actually got a good one. For months and months, I thought this was going to be Tarantino. And then I see the Scorsese feature in the New York Times, and I see the Scorsese feature in the New York Times. And I see the Bond conversation happening and all the pundits choosing him. And I guess we have to change our minds. Now, the other counterintuitive thought here is that this is where Todd Phillips rises.

Yeah. Which is in play. It's in play. Somehow, I don't think that this is where it happens but it could be that everybody else cancels these out each other out i'm gonna stick with quinn tarantino for my pick who do you have i'm going with scorsese okay because i you know he is out here and i think the we make fun of the golden globes and we make fun of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, but they do like to attach themselves to the big prestige thing or the conventional thing that people take seriously. And I think also that it's Martin Scorsese.

And that has a lot of weight. Who am I to argue with Martin Scorsese? I'm no one. Hmm. Let's save the conversation about Joker. Yeah. Best motion picture, musical, or comedy. The nominees are Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit, Knives Out, Rocket Man, Dolomite Is My Name. I'm going Once Upon a Time. It has to be. I think that it's just, I don't know that it will win in that many below the line categories besides Brad Pitt,

but I think it'll win here. I think this is the only lock that I feel comfortable with. This is the only thing that I feel like will happen. That is legit how Jojo Rabbit wins on Sunday night. You know that, right? Well, I'm saying it anyway. Okay. I just, I want you to know that that happens. I mean, do you remember as we were doing this? Cause you and I watched the Golden Globes together last year. Sure did. We'll be doing the same this year. Do you like remember when they announced Green Book and then when they announced Bohemian Rhapsody and you and I looked at each other and it was like, it was like two gyms from the office looking straight at each other. Like, and it like, it happened once and we were like huh okay and then it happened again and we were still surprised so i just want you and everyone listening to emotionally prepare

yourselves protect your heart i mean i guess that's possible okay i i also picked once upon a time in hollywood but i just i'm reminded you i'm reminding myself i'm reminding you. I'm reminding myself. I'm reminding everyone at home. If we get it. Last year was not the cinematic triumph that 2019 was. You know, 2018 was it was a good movie year. There was a lot of great stuff. Damn, like that matters. Okay.

But it will be more offensive to me. Okay. As someone who cares about this for reasons that are still mysterious to me. Sure. It was plenty offensive to both of us last year. But that's what I'm saying. If a year in which Parasite and The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

and all these wonderful... 1917, a film that in any other year I would be like, this actually should win. This is a great film. If that's the year where Jojo Rabbit

and perhaps another candidate that we'll talk about in the next category emerge as the frontrunners, I'm going to be bummed. I'm going to be really, really, really bummed. On the last podcast, we talked about the greatest movie year of the decade.

Yes. And I think that 2019 is probably it, but I made a case for the interest of content for 2017. A good case, a very strong case. A lot of people agreed with you. Yes. And the winners in 2017 were three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Lady Bird did win for musical or comedy.

But then, of course, The Shape of Water won at the Oscars. So it could happen again is what I'm saying. I just, we're about to enter the very fraught period and I'm setting expectations. I'm setting boundaries for everyone's feelings. Have people seen Once Upon a Time in Hollywood? Like, have they watched it? Yes, because we had to spend a whole two weeks reading their takes. You went on vacation, so you didn't have to.

That was so dope when I did that. I was like, what I'm going to do is see Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and then get on a plane. I know, I remember. That was such a beautiful design by me. um okay let's go to the next category i suspect we'll be um wringing our hands through this one as well best motion picture drama the nominees are the irishman marriage story 1917 joker and the two popes so one thing we learned in this martin scorsese feature by david scoff in the new york times today is that this Martin Scorsese feature by David Scoff in the New York Times today is that Martin Scorsese has not seen Joker. Would you like to come watch it again with me, Marty?

Two pals, two fans of cinema. I would pay for that. I think that we would have a great time. I think that I have, Martin Scorsese and I would have some great conversations. I don't think you guys have the same energy. Can I, did you watch any of the Hollywood Reporter Roundtable? Sure. I thought he was a really like active and generous listener, which I really appreciated. Obviously you learn over time that when you're being filmed listening to other people talk, you got to make your face a certain way, but he's really got it down. Sure.

And he had something he could relate to everyone. So I think that we would be great. So you're implying that if you guys spend time together, you'll do most of the talking. Is that what you're saying? No, we would just find ways to connect. Okay. I feel really confident. He's a force for good. And that's, I want to be aligned with forces for good. And I want to spend my time with forces for good. So Martin Scorsese hasn't seen this movie. I don't think it was a shot. It was interesting that he was honest. He could have just been like, yeah, impressive work by Todd. Why would he do that? I don't know.

Because it seems like a shot to say, like, I get it. That's essentially what he said. He said, I get it. It was an homage to my work. Yeah. But with a comic book supervillain. Right. I get it.

And it feels actually more like a dagger, not less like a dagger. Even if he was like, you know, I wasn't fond of it or it wasn't for me. Don't you think that being like, I wasn't fond of it is more of a dagger than I haven't had time to see it yet? Do you think he did see it, didn't like it, and then said he hasn't seen it? No, I think he's like... You think he's honest? You think he's honest? I think he's honest. I think he's also being very wise about what he's letting into his life

and what he's not letting into his life. We should all be as choosy as Martin Scorsese. Set boundaries. Okay? Okay. Here's what you'll tolerate. Here's what you won't tolerate. I guess that's completely fair and valid.

I found it amusing that he even decided to speak on that. That's my friend. If you're Martin Scorsese and someone asks you a question that you don't really feel like answering, couldn't you just put your hand up and say, no, not now? Maybe he does and they don't print that. Do you think Martin Scorsese and Bob Iger ever have that coffee meeting that has been much threatened? No. Why would they?

In the piece, a Disney representative says they're trying to find a time. Which is like, that is code for it. It's never going to happen. Just so you know, that's what that means in Hollywood. That's what it means in your dating life. That's what it means everywhere. It's not going to happen. Okay, so they won't be having that meeting.

What's going to win Best Motion Picture Drama? Well, so I changed my mind this morning, and now you're making me want to change it again. My answer is The Irishman. Okay. But yesterday I would have said Joker. And right now I'm kind of like, is it Joker? I feel that Joker is likelier to win than Todd Phillips, though I may rue the day I said that. Okay.

And I can, you know, as I just kept yelling to you about expectations and how the worst things always happen, I am emotionally preparing myself for a Joker win. I'm picking Joker. Okay. Yeah. I'm both trying to prepare and protect my heart and also be the change that I want to see in the world in 2020. So I'm picking the Irishman. That's no way to go about doing that. I can assure you that you're not going to help yourself by doing that. Let's look back at some, one of my favorite games, some previous winners of this category.

Just to get a sense of where they go. You already mentioned that three billboards outside of Ebbing, Missouri won two years ago. Now, last year, they chose a very big hit in Bohemian Rhapsody. But they passed over an even bigger hit in Black Panther. Yes. And also a big hit in A Star Is Born. Now, many people thought A Star Is Born was the lock last year for that award. Perhaps us included. Yeah. I mean, we

thought that it was going to win five Oscars. We were wrong, wrong, wrong. I have not been more wrong about something in my entire life than I was about where A Star Is Born went. And there, I know why some of that stuff happened, but nevertheless. So, three billboards won in 17. Moonlight won in 16. Well, there were not very many

big hits on that list that year that year was Manchester by the Sea Lion Hell or High Water Hacksaw Ridge and the winner moonlight year before that the Revenant was the winner which was a huge hit over overcoming Carol Mad Max Fury Road Room and Spotlight year before that was Boyhood which at that time was a consensus

year before that was 12 Years a Slave year before that was Argo year before that was the Descendants year before that was 12 Years a Slave. The year before that was Argo. The year before that was The Descendants. The year before that was The Social Network. Now, I would say that all of these films, with the exception of Bohemian Rhapsody, I feel like have a quote-unquote social import. Now, you can certainly judge how important that import is, how powerful it is, how meaningful it is. And you could even probably make the case that Bohemian Rhapsody has it. But Three Billboards,

of course, is, you know, treaties on an ignored part of America. Moonlight, obviously, the coming-of-age story about a gay man.

The Revenant is very much about the history of our country and what people took and what they had to pay for. Boyhood, story of adolescence.

Mm-hmm. Twelve Years a Slave adolescence 12 years a slave speaks for itself argo speaks for itself the descendants is probably the one that is a little bit flimsy in that respect but even still sort of about a man's life coming apart and the social network which we now know to be right hugely consequential i think like marriage Story does not fit that mold. No. Well, the only thing that it does fit is that, with the exception of Bohemian Rhapsody, which was just, like, silly season, and to an extent, Three Billboards. Those are all also, like, the serious auteur filmmaker movies. Those are, like, this is the great movie of the year, say the awards predictors. And I think they do have a tendency, and also some of the movies are very good. We should say Moonlight, great movie. So I think that if you're thinking about it in terms of like capital I

importance, then The Irishman kind of fits in. And if you're thinking about it in terms of like, quote unquote, political commentary that doesn't make any sense, then Joker fits in, especially in the last couple of years. Yeah, it's tricky. Looking back at 2011, this was a fun lineup. This is a very strange lineup.

So the Descendants won, but also nominated were The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March. Do you remember that film? Oh, yeah. Directed by George Clooney. Yeah, it was Ryan Gosling.

It was Ryan Gosling. Moneyball and War Horse. Now, this just, obviously, Moneyball was overlooked. We've talked about it many times on this show. All of these movies are sort of like

not quite good enough to take that mantle that you were describing. And so The Descendants wins because Alexander Payne is respected. That's a very charming story. George Clooney is overwhelmed

by George Clooney. 2019 feels like an odd mix because the quote-unquote important film would be 1917. That would be the film that is both a technical achievement and is saying

something of the sort of war is hell history of awards giving. The Two Popes has a lot to say about decency and communication. The Irishman, of course, a capstone.

Marriage Story, this is how we live now. I guess so. But Joker is alienation and pain. I mean... And a serious statement. So is The Irishman, but it just doesn't have Batman. I'm sticking with Joker.

I think that's right. Like I said, I had it yesterday, and I woke up today full of hope for some reason, and I'm sure that it will be crushed come Sunday night. How are you feeling about your predictions? Not great. You know, I think I'll probably get four wrong. How about that? Four? Yeah. Okay. That would be pretty good showing. I don't think it'll be a disaster, but I went out on a couple limbs, and there are also a couple things that could break the wrong way. How many categories did we do? About 15 here? 16? Yeah. Four would be pretty strong.

Okay. You'd like to walk away with that batting average, and you'd like to walk away with it at the Oscars as well. Yeah. I don't know. How are you feeling? Not good, because I hate this agency. I hate this group. Okay. you feeling not good because i hate this agency i hate this group okay i don't hate the people but i just hate the way that they choose things and i feel like it fucks with something that i care about too much yeah you know because of that what we were saying earlier i just feel like every year we spend so much time preparing ourselves for like the bad choices that the hollywood foreign

press association will make and we try to get into the minds of this group of people. And we're like, I have prepared myself and I know how they'll think. And it'll be Joker and it'll be this, that, and the other. And then we're surprised and horrified and new with each award ceremony because we can't get into their brains. Yeah, it's just going to end up being Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bong, all good stuff. Awkwafina, nice people that we like. How will you feel if...

If they get it right, quote unquote? What will that mean for our movies? I'll feel fine. I got a life of my own. Okay, that's good. I will feel like freaked out because I will feel like it's an indictment of my taste. I will feel basic. I will feel like I missed something. I will feel like it's an indictment of my taste. I will feel basic. I will feel like I missed something. I will feel like I have lowered my standards. Maybe the Globes is

Costanza-ing this year. They're just sort of doing the opposite of everything they would normally do in an effort to change things up, to strengthen their reputation. Maybe. I don't see that as being likely, which means we'll have a lot to talk about on Sunday night. Please stay tuned to this feed if you want to hear us react almost in real time to the Golden Globe Awards. Amanda and I will be there right after the show on The Big Picture.

Amanda, thank you for exposing yourself in this way. My pleasure. Love to do it. We'll see you all on Sunday night.