The Big Picture - 25 Oscar Predictions That Will Win You Cash

Episode Date: April 22, 2021

The time has almost come for the long-awaited—or maybe just long in waiting—93rd Academy Awards. Sean and Amanda discuss what to expect from the ceremony, and then make predictions in every category.  Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Producer: Bobby Wagner Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ring or Dish is the place for all things celebrity. From major celebrity moments like the Met Gala and the Oscars, to the weird habits of the stars you love, to refreshers on the biggest tabloid stories from the last 20 years, Ring or Dish has all the vital details. On Tuesdays, catch Jam Session with Juliette Lippman and Amanda Dobbins for royal family rumors, celebrity real estate, and industry analysis. And on Fridays, listen to Tea Time with me, Kate, and Amelia

for lightning-fast coverage on pressing celebrity news and gossip. Check out Ring Your Dish on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Sean Fennessey. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about our Academy Awards predictions. That's right. We are just a few days away from the 93rd Academy Awards. And I don't know. I think obviously the energy around the Academy Awards is significantly quieter this year, but I'm choosing to lean in.

I'm fired up. I'm ready for an award show. I'm ready for a Steven Soderbergh-led award show. I'm ready to see some famous people give out some hardware. Amanda, how are you feeling about the Academy Awards? I'm glad to have Steven Soderbergh in my life every day. I know I said this already, but it's later in the week. Here we are. I'm curious. I like an event. I like something to plan my weeks around, which things are getting better. We're all hopefully getting vaccinated. Things are emerging, but I still need some things to look forward to. So I'm looking forward to this. Yeah. So let's just go right into this. What are you expecting from the show? We've heard a lot from Soderbergh. We've talked about it a bit already this week about how he is hoping to optimize and update the Academy Awards experience, viewing experience, making it more cinematic.

Obviously, they've changed location to Union Station in downtown Los Angeles. Do you think this is going to work? You think it's going to be fun? You think it's going to feel meaningfully different? I think it will feel meaningfully. Well, I think it will feel different. Meaningful is in the eye of the beholder. And how much fun it is is also kind of tbd there has been a emphasis on positivity and earnestness

in the messaging around the oscars which not your flavor no no it's not even when it's one of my favorite filmmakers asking me to leave my cynicism at the door which is like maybe also something that he has to say to himself every day which like i you, that's why I love him and I got it. But that makes me a little bit nervous that it's going to be a little bit of like movies. Aren't they wonderful? Which, you know, is the theme of the Oscars every year. And you and I both believe that movies are wonderful and Lord knows that the movie industry needs some cheerleading. But how much fun, how much looseness, how many unexpected moments that allows for, I'm not sure on. And that's a little bit unfair because I'm judging it according to past award ceremonies where the fun and the looseness and the, oh, my God, can you believe that happened, was the appeal. And for a number of reasons, that can't happen this year.

And they're putting together a different show. But of course, we've watched so many Oscars at this point, you compare it against past experiences. And I do think it'll be a different vibe. Yeah, I've been giving this a lot of thought because the Academy is obviously in this incredibly difficult situation. One, they have a series of films, some of which that are nominated that we like a lot, but due to the pandemic and a variety of other reasons, it's not necessarily the full slate that we were

expecting. Two, their job is to promote the industry and creation of movies. That is literally the Academy Awards job. It's to get as many people to care about movies, certainly this collection of movies that they're identifying, but also the broader concept of our emotional relationship to movies. It's been a bit of a struggle this year. We've heard a lot about the lack of engagement on the part of the viewers, the people who ostensibly would be excited to see some of these films get rewarded, and also on the part of the voters who are not necessarily engaging in these films as sincerely and clearly as you would like. I've actually talked to a couple of voters this week and mild sense of panic, I would say, inside the Academy. A real concern that, you know, in addition to the ratings, the general lack of emotional connection to some of these films is raising some questions about what the purpose of this body is and how it can make money. And I, for one, I'm not totally sure about what it can do. I think there seems to be an ongoing debate that it can't just be this one TV show. It can't just

be this one event annually that can be relied upon. The NFL, of course, has the Super Bowl. They also have 22 other weeks of football programming to count on on an ongoing basis. The Academy, it is more of a satellite related to the studios and the filmmakers of the world. And so, you know, that's kind of a big top question to throw in your direction. But when you think about it, like, is there more, should the Academy have done some things differently to generate interest this year? And what can they take away potentially from this very complex year? Two separate questions. One, could they have done some things differently?

Of course. You know, the Oscars are in April instead of February. I texted one of my best friends earlier to ask for some help with Oscars betting and the odds because we're doing predictions and I wanted to be informed. And she was like, why are you asking me this? When are the Oscars? It's April. So, you know, there is- Chilling, chilling.

It feels like it's gone on forever. Obviously the movie industry is in huge crisis. We don't know when theaters are gonna open or which theaters are gonna open. I'm still waiting for someone to buy the Arclight. Just like, please buy the Arclight and open all of them. So everything that you just said is true. And also, this was a really weird year.

This is an exceptional year. And people actually do need to contain some of their worries and panicking to this year in order for movies or the Oscars to have a future. Like we can't take away anything from this ceremony, except like, hopefully we got to look at some nice things that Steven Soderbergh like arranged for us. He's not coming back last next year. He's already said that like, this is a major asterisk and that's a bummer in some ways, because you don't want to tell people who finally went an Oscar. And as Wesley pointed out on the, on our last episode, and it's certainly true, like the people of color, the black creators, the women who are finally nominated

in these categories, you don't want to tell them when I was an asterisk. And I, and I, and I don't mean it in that consideration, but in terms of what the Oscars represent for the industry and like what we should do represent for the industry and what we should do going forward, guys, we had a pandemic. We just got to accept it. It's going to be weird, and then hopefully we can move on. Yeah, I have a hard time thinking about some things that they could have done radically differently. I think I would have preferred that they stayed on the traditional schedule. As we see, we're not really in a place, despite vaccination growing around the country, where we can have an actual authentic Dorothy Chandler Pavilion-esque award ceremony.

And so that wouldn't have been significantly different back in February. As far as what else they could have done, you know, Richard Rushfield, who writes a newsletter called The Ankler, has been pushing for months, maybe even a year, into suggesting that the Academy should essentially scrap its awards this year and essentially put on a telethon, like just just use this show to marshal all the forces of Hollywood and just raise money and make it, you know, you and I grew up in an era of telethons when it was far more normal. Certainly we'll think of like in the aftermath of 9-11, but even throughout the 90s, I felt like this was a very common thing to kind of gather as many celebrities as possible and have them perform have them connect have them interact in a meaningful way across a three-hour span or six hour span and just raise money would that have been the 40 million person ratings bonanza that

say the avatar hurt locker oscars was it not. But it would have been something that would have seemed not as arguably crass and arguably mistimed. And so I've been kind of turning that concept over my mind. Now, frankly, they could have done both. There could have been a world in which you had an award show and you also had an event like this because who's better at eventizing? Who's better at quote unquote storytelling than Hollywood? This is what they do. They could have changed their own story. Now it's easy for us to say that there are a lot of considerations in play, but as we prepare for Sunday, and I hope Sunday is a lot of fun. I'm looking forward to watching it. I'm looking forward to seeing people like Daniel Kaluuya win Oscars. I think that's going to be fantastic.

But there probably are some things that they could have done differently. Do you think they should have had a host here? For example, that is something that obviously we haven't had the last couple of years and we felt fine about, would it have been a little bit more helpful in a year like this? I don't know. I think it really has more to do with how you feel about like the sanctity of

like a host at an awards show. And you know, how important is like 10 minutes of standup comedy to you at the beginning of any event. I think that Jimmy Kimmel at the Emmys actually did like a good job and was sort of helping people navigate through that award ceremony. It seems like they were going to have kind of super presenters at the Oscars who get handed like a whole segment to be your guide. And it's fine with me if they don't need to do stand-up comedy as a result of it.

I think in a lot of ways, trying to make the same awards show in really different circumstances has diminishing returns. And so using a host, but like in an empty room or with fewer people, and then you cut to like this socially distanced things and masks. You know, they did that at the emmys sort of i guess no jimmy himmel was i believe mostly alone in the staples center they did that at the golden globes on two coasts like okay you know they tried do i need to see it again i do not personally well i'm looking forward to seeing it no matter what um before we dive into our predictions some of which I think will be extraordinarily obvious and not necessarily all that fun to debate about. I did want to note one industry thing that is very much related to the Oscars. Earlier this week, it was announced that Steve Galula and Nancy Utley are stepping down from Searchlight, the studio that is currently owned by Disney, but for many years was known as Fox Searchlight. Now for industry wonks, for people who follow film closely, this is a very, very big story. Searchlight, as we've talked about over the years on this show, is the most consistent and consistently successful kind of indie shingle

under a corporate stewardship that we have. Searchlight has won four of the last eight best pictures and is probably going to win its fifth this weekend. And these two people have basically been steering that ship for a quarter of a century and have helped define and refine, I think, a kind of like mainstream indie movie taste, which is a very contradictory but essential kind of phrase because I think it speaks to the way that the Academy and the way that awards and the way the quote unquote prestige cinema has evolved over time. These are people who have really good taste,

who've made really good movies and who found themselves in an interesting inflection point when Searchlight was acquired by Disney. There was a lot of fretting amongst film fans, amongst some people in Hollywood, specifically about Searchlight when the acquisition happened. Bob Iger, then the CEO, the chairman of Disney at that time said, don't worry. Searchlight is

going to be fine. Everything is going to be great. We're going to protect this brand because they make quality films that make money and win awards. And we care about that. Now these two folks are moving on. They're moving on, you know, presumably to retirement. And more people will step up to take the reins. But it does kind of sort of feel like Searchlight could, in the future, not necessarily be a boon for art houses, but a boon for Hulu. And is this a studio now that makes films for Disney's streaming brand that isn't Disney Plus? I don't know that that necessarily is a bad thing, but it is a different thing. I don't know. What was your reaction to the news that they're stepping

down? Well, congratulations to them. I believe they are 70 and 65 respectively. And like, sometimes you just want to like go, you know, hang it up and have a nice retirement. And it's like certainly well-earned. And I also respect going out on a high note with another Oscar, which it seems like that they will this weekend. So sometimes just congratulations to them, like thanks for your service and congratulations. And I, and I, and I think that certainly where they are in their careers and kind of what they want to do going forward is like a major part of this decision. It does seem like they maybe don't want to take on the streaming era of specialty cinema. And we are certainly in the streaming era of specialty cinema. And this is like a confirmation. I think

that things are different and distribution will be different. Like taste will be different. Taste will be different. The types of movies that are going to be made are different. So it's absolutely a loss. And it maybe is just confirming some things that we knew to be true. And possibly accelerating them in some cases. You have to wonder whether if the pandemic hadn't happened, whether it would be, they would be retiring right now. Very hard to say, but you know,

congrats to them on an incredible career. I hope that you and I, after another 30 plus years of doing the big picture can have an exit interview in the New York times conducted. So, so gracefully, what do you think? Sure.

Yeah. 30 years. Let's, let's go. All right, Let's do some predictions. So, Amanda, you know I like to gamble. I feel like these are predictions that are worthy of gambling upon. Now, this does feel like a fairly chalky year, but I kind of think I say that before every predictions episode on this podcast. I think that we have a sense that the narratives are locked and that we're quite certain that 1917 cannot be beaten. And then along comes Parasite

and shocks us and thrills us and excites us. The Academy is very different from all the other bodies that we've seen thus far. It is one of the biggest. It is one of the most evolving, I would say. We don't necessarily have our arms around who represents the Academy anymore because it has changed so much in the last five years in many ways, in great ways. But I still feel a little worried. So I'm going to make some picks, I think, that are just going to try to make me feel better and more excited about this. So you're continuing the annual Sean Fennessey tradition of psyching yourself out at the last moment to try to make it interesting.

Correct. And then things are going to go wrong. So that's nice. You know, it's nice that some things stay the same. How many years in a row have you gotten best picture wrong? That would be five. And that's only as far back as I was predicting for professional reasons. So it's possible I'm on like an 11 or 12 game losing streak here.

And I don't say that to claim that I've gotten it right. I honestly don't remember. I think in a lot of ways, this will be pretty much the same, which is that we'll get one or maybe two big categories wrong. Like the big, the big ticket, we'll just get them wrong. And that's whether, because we like took a flyer on someone to be interesting, to make this podcast fun for you guys at home and, or because there is a genuine surprise, um, in the, in the case of Olivia Coleman defeating Glenn Close and creating the Glenn Close Memorial it's time award. Uh, and then I think we'll probably get a couple of the, um, the technical categories wrong because we always do, because you can make your guesses, but you know, they're, they're whimsical as well.

I think that big ticket, because it's been so long, we've been talking about the Oscars for so long and because there has been so much stasis in the race that we feel like it is even more locked than we normally feel at this point. And I think that it probably is a bit more locked just because there seems to be less energy around it. And as you mentioned, you know, people don't know that the Oscars are happening this weekend and the voters can't figure out like how to watch the movies, which is just, I don't know what to say. It's not funny, but I mean, come on guys, log on. And so it's the first time I've ever heard you suggest someone log on in this case, only log on. It's too late now. The window's closed. You can't log on anymore. So please

log off again and maybe learn how to log on for next year. But I, it, it does kind of feel like there's like kind of less last minute, like jostling and energy that could push something like an Olivia Colman over Glenn Close. But that might just be a vibes thing. Like, frankly, we have no idea because, as I said, most Academy voters don't know how to log on to the website. Did they vote? Who can say? How many, like, do you think it's probably

the lowest number of people voting in the Academy? Like ever? Percentage wise. From a percentage perspective, probably. The Academy is obviously huge now. There's almost 10,000 members. So there's definitely going to be more people than ever. But you're right.

Maybe we're getting a net low because there's just not a lot of engagement with these films. You know what we should have done? You and I should have offered a service a business well well we would have had to figure out you know kind of like vaccination make sure it's safe for everybody but like since oh just that's all no well we could have figured out vaccination as well but then once that's sorted out and this is like we're pretending that we're assuming this is safe for everyone where you and

i would just like go to Academy voters houses and log on for them and then just vote for them. We can also fix their motion smoothing when we go over there. It can be like Sean and Amanda take a trip to an elderly person's home and have them watch movies correctly. Why don't we quit this job and just do that? Careful what you wish for. I just saved the Academy. You're a true entrepreneur. I'm impressed. Let's get it going for 2022. What VC will back Amanda's plan to fix the motion smoothing and create an opportunity

to have old people log on effectively to the Academy portal? I just want to be clear that when I'm helping them log on, I'm also heavily influencing their votes. Oh, interesting. Okay. Yeah, of course.

Like 100% being like, you should check this out. So that means, you know know then people can lobby me and i'm not going to accept money or gifts for it okay we've like the golden globes are pretty much done at this point thankfully and i'm i don't intend to carry on those traditions but i would bring some the values of real cinema to these people as i help them log on okay one question about this fledgling business of yours. Who pays you? Where does the money come from? Is this the Academy paying you? I think so. I think the Academy could just invest in it. Yeah. You think they feel good about you as a steward of their tools? I'm not so sure that

they would support that. Though, maybe we'll get a phone call. They haven't figured anything else out. And I'm just offering like a door-to-door service to help people log on. The only case in which I will help people log on. Just think about it, Academy. Let me know. White gloves and white tux. That's what we'll call it.

Okay. All right. Let's go to our predictions. I think what we're going to do is we're each going to predict the winners that we expect. And then we should just talk about what we'd like to see win in each category as well. And in some cases, we'll probably have strongly held beliefs. And in other cases, we'll be like, that movie was cool and I like it. So in keeping with the suggestion that you made a few weeks ago on the show,

and also in keeping with the Oscars tradition, we're actually going to start with a more visible category. Right. And in this case, we're... They've said this year they might not do that. They're messing with the order. Oh. We're actually going to start with a more visible category. Right. And in this case, we're... They've said this year they might not do that. They're messing with the order. Oh, wow.

Really? They're not going to do that? Yeah, I did read that somewhere that they're not doing like the traditional, but whatever. We can do it here because it's our podcast.

Okay, well, we were going to open with Best Supporting Actress. The show usually opens with Best Supporting Actress or Actor, depending on the year. So let's just read the nominees.

The nominees for Best Supporting Actress are Maria Bakalova for Borat's subsequent movie film, Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman for The Father, Amanda Seyfried for Mank, and Ya Zheng Yun for Minari. Amanda, who are you going with? Ya Zheng Yun. Okay. So Ya Zheng Yun is the odds-on favorite. And I woke up this morning and I said, I choose violence. I'm going with Glenn Close. No! No! No! What are you doing? Sean!

It's got nothing to do with my heart. It's got everything to do with my head. You said that you were bringing a spirit of positivity to this podcast. You were like, you know what? I know I've been dragging you down. I know I've been a worrywart, but I'm going to have an optimistic point of view going into these Oscars. And then you brought the movie that shall not be named into this projected winner circle.

I absolutely not. Well, let's think of it this way. Obviously, this would be unfortunate for Ya Zheng Yun, who I think is incredibly deserving. And it seems like she has been sweeping the nation. However, there's some energy. There's some close energy out there. There's some conversation that it's time.

It's time for Glenn. And the Academy knows it's time. Now, I think the Academy probably hates Hillbilly Elegy, if I had to guess. But how many times have we seen actors win for over-the-top performances at the end of their careers after not being recognized adequately for subtle, nuanced, fascinating work earlier in their careers. I'll give you, for example, Al Pacino incentive a woman. Okay. This is the same thing.

This is the same thing. Okay, but there's no momentum for her to win this. Okay. Like there's no, normally there is a whole narrative and everyone is like at all the parties being like, oh my God, Glenn Close, we love you so much.

Like, you know, tell us more about, I don't know, whatever you do. It's great. And then I was like, I don't know. You would be a terrible conversation. I was going to make some rude jokes about like the prosthetics and whatever.

You want to talk to her about Albert knobs? That's I, and then I was like, no, I don't want to because that's not what they do at the Oscar ceremonies. They're very obsequious. So there's just no momentum. Yeo Jung Yoon has won almost all of the televised awards.

And Glenn Close has won none of the televised awards. I mean, you're right. Okay. But do you want to be right with this one? Does that feel good? Well, I'm just trying to make a podcast you know like just just allow me the opportunity to make a podcast i am but i just who would you want to win would you want yajang you to win yes but i would also

amanda cypher does i believe in like last place odds wise how did that happen no one likes mank i don't know. It's crazy. I thought she was going to win six months ago, and I thought Kingsley Ben-Adir was going to be nominated for Best Actor, and neither of those things happened at all. Show us how little we know. Can I just say also that I feel like Olivia Colman is more likely as a surprise winner

in this category than Glenn Close is. Once again, taking its time away from Glenn Close. Olivia Colman winning in this category twice and defeating Glenn Close twice head to head. She won best actress last time. So she would have both best supporting and best actress. It was a different category, but still,

I mean, that would be, that's traumatic. That's Glenn Close has nightmares about Olivia Colman until the day she dies level traumatic. Yeah. All right. I would have liked to seen Amanda Seyfried. Ya Zheng Yun win would be fantastic. We'll talk more about Minari later in this episode. Best Supporting Actor. Yes. Nominees, Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7,

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah, Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami, Paul Racey, A Sound of Metal, Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah. Obviously, there is category fraud here. There's no reason for Lakeith to be in this category. He should have been nominated for Best Actor if he were to be nominated. Nevertheless, nice to see both of those guys recognized here. I assume you are going with the chalk pick here. Yes, Daniel Kaluuya. Chalk pick is, you know, let's not reduce it. This is a really exciting one. This is one where, like, I loved the performance. I think he is one of the actors of his generation. He absolutely deserves his Oscar. It's nice when people get their Oscars before we get to Glenn Close territory. I am excited for him to win. This is not an asterisk.

This is great. Wholeheartedly agree. I look forward to his speech. He has been, I assume you did not listen to him on Marc Maron. No, he was on Maron. I didn't know. He was phenomenal on Maron. It was a really great interview. If you like Daniel Kaluuya, I highly recommend it. He's very funny. He's incredibly smart.

The way he makes decisions in his career is obviously deeply intentional. And it was funny to hear him talk about that. So I'd recommend that pod. Okay, let's just go to the next category. Best original song. Amanda's favorite category. We've got five nominees. and they are quite strange. Here they are.

From Eurovision Song Contest, The Story of Fire Saga. The song is called Husavik. And Ricard Goranson, Fat Max, Zeus, and Savan Koteca are nominated in that category. From Judas and the Black Messiah, Fight for You by D'Amelio and Her. And Tiara Thomas is one of the writers of that song. From the Life Ahead, Scene, written by Diane Warren. From One Night in Miami, Speak Now, written by Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr. And from The Trial of the Chicago 7, there's Hear My Voice from Daniel Pemberton and Celeste.

Where are you going? So I have one answer written down here just for some behind the scenes color for everyone listening at home. I did write all of my predictions in the, or most of them in the shared doc and Sean did not write any of them, which I guess you just surprised me with one of your terrible picks and it made for good content. So I understand why you did that. But what I have written down is speak now, but, uh, which is the, um is the song from One Night in Miami, co-written by Leslie Odom Jr. And I think that that would be a vote for Leslie Odom Jr. because he is not going to win another category. And One Night in Miami is like a well-liked movie that isn't competing in any of the major categories.

That said, as we were reading the nominees, I was like, it's really dumb to bet against Diane Warren. And perhaps I should be bet against Diane Warren. And perhaps I should be betting for Diane Warren. So Diane Warren is one of the most recognized people in Academy Award history. Right. However, she's never won. Yeah. I think she has 11 song nominations in her career at the Oscars. Okay. And has never won. So she's firmly in Susan Lucci territory. She has outpaced, almost doubled, Glenn Close's number of nominations over the years and never won.

So it is possible. And she has been campaigning hard. I heard a good conversation with her and Scott Feinberg on Scott's show. And she's out there. but she's always out there. Diane Warren is not afraid to hoof for this sort of thing. And I agree with your supposition that Leslie Odom Jr., they want him to be recognized here. They want him on stage. One Night at Miami is, you know, it's clearly not one of the most well-liked movies because it was not nominated for Best Picture, but it has been recognized in other categories. I'm going to speak now as well.

You get all the Hamilton also with this, you know, which people just like really love. So I'm going to stick with it. But if Diane Warren wins, I'll be happy for Diane Warren. And I'll be like, I should have been brave. I once presented an academic paper on Diane Warren at a music conference in the late 2000s with my pal John Caramonica. That's nice. That was a different time in history. But Diane Warren, of course, one of the all-time writers of elegant schmaltz, I would say.

She has a true gift. Next category. best original score. Here are the nominees. From Defy Bloods, Terrence Blanchard. From Mank, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. From Minari, Emil Mosseri. From News of the World, James Newton Howard. From Soul, John Batiste, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. One thing I'm reminded of is just the absolute stray shot that News of the World caught on our podcast with Wesley. I just, I don't know where that came from. I thought News of the World was not a great film by any means, but not bad. The whole kid category of that podcast was something I have reflected on a lot since we did it. He brought some real chaos to our

conversation, the likes of which we don't usually see. Very fun to chat with him as as always this one seems like a really easy pick for both of us i imagine that we're both going soul trend resner atticus ross and john batiste yes correct this is great work i think it would be cool if emil moseri was recognized here i think that minari score is beautiful i think if this was not a powerhouse trend and atticus year that's the kind of smaller film that might have gotten a look. He also did incredible work for The Last Black Man in San Francisco. But this just feels like number two for Trenton Atticus.

And John Batiste is first. Get groceries delivered across the GTA from Real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points.

Visit superstore.ca to get started. Let's go to the short films. Now, Amanda, you've watched the short films? I have. I watched them. I have watched them as well. Did you enjoy them? I just think this should be not a part of the Oscars.

I think that short films are a different type of storytelling. They're a different type of art. They have people at different points in their careers. And I think that we could make a ceremony that would honor short films similar to the way we have the indie spirits. But it's just when you have your Oscars feature hat on and then you go to watch a bunch of Oscar shorts, it's a different experience. And I will say once again, every year I discover that the Oscar films are actually not that short. So that's another, it's like 10 to 12 hours of watching. Let's go into the categories. The first one is best live action short film full disclosure here

the ringer's very own van lathan is a producer on one of the nominees um and and frankly friend of the pod trayvon free is one of the co-directors of one of the nominees the same film so just want to cite that uh as a full disclosure here are the nominees feeling through the letter room the present two distant strangers which is the film that trayvon and van worked on and white eye now Here are the nominees, Feeling Through, The Letter Room, The Present, Two Distant Strangers, which is the film that Trayvon and Van worked on, and White Eye. Now, I notice here that in our document, you did not make a prediction yet. And so are you waiting until the last minute to make your decision? No, I wanted to talk with you a little bit about the short films and odds, really.

Because the short films are interesting. And I believe there was like an IndieWire podcast that pointed out, like, if you want drama, if you want to kind of not know what's going to happen at the Oscars, you should get into the short films because there isn't the level of like politicking and awareness, like totally, it's not at the same level as the feature films. But if you look at the odds that you can bet money on, each of the favored films are just the ones that are available on Netflix. And I find that really interesting. And I'm wondering whether that actually is the case, because that makes sense, right? Especially the way that you can see the short films is either that you can, you know, some

local cinemas where they're open do do like a special showing of all of the short films. You can see them in a theater or there is the virtual cinema option. Or, you know, some are available on Netflix. Some are available on Vimeo. Some are available via other smaller streaming services. And you have to work to see them. But you don't really have to work to see Netflix films. So I am wondering whether, how do they make the odds?

Because are they just like, no, are they like doing research and polling people and realizing, OK, well, these are the three or are they like, hmm, these are the ones that seem to have the most availability and buzz. And so we'll just, you know, they're the Netflix ones. So they're probably most likely to win. Historically, it's both. Historically, the bookmakers are acquiring information. I don't know if they're pulling Academy members necessarily, but they're acquiring as much information. They're reading what we're reading. They're getting a sense of the landscape. And then most materially, they are looking at the action that they are getting in terms of betting. And so if you see the odds changing over time, it's largely a reflection of what kind of

wagers they're receiving. If, for example, Vegas is getting more bets on two distant strangers, then the odds for two distant strangers will change significantly. There's a reason that the whole world bets on the Cowboys all the time because there are a lot of Cowboys fans around the world. So invariably, the Cowboys are favored in a lot of games that maybe they shouldn't be favored in. So it's a complicated thing. I'm by no means an expert on this. There are a lot more people, including people at The Ringer, who understand this stuff a lot better than I do. But I will say in this category, there is a distinction because this is actually the one category where that's not the case, what you suggested, where the Netflix film is not the leading.

Well, you know what? That's changed since yesterday. Oh, interesting. Which is also interesting. Yeah. Okay. So Two Distant Strangers, of course, the film that we were mentioning earlier is the film that is now available on Netflix. The Letter Room is considered neck and neck with Two Distant Strangers. Two Distant Strangers is essentially like a Groundhog Day-esque portrait of a young black man who was killed over and over again by a police officer. It's a very high concept and at times very upsetting and well-made movie. The Letter Room is also very well-made. It is directed by Elvira Lind,

who is Oscar Isaac's wife. And Oscar Isaac is the star of this film. And so obviously there's a bit of name recognition there. And that may be one of the reasons why it is leading in the odds at the moment. Obviously, Two Distant Strangers is a very timely film. And The Letter Room is a little bit quieter and uh you know i don't want to say subtle necessarily but they have a different tempo those two movies so it's interesting to

see them pit it against each other it does seem like it's going to be one of these two yes so where do you think they're going to go i think i'm going to go with my available on netflix theory and go with two distant strangers Strangers. You know, it has, in addition to our friend Ben Lathan being a producer, it has a number of quite famous executive producers. And I believe Sean Diddy Combs and Kevin Durant are listed among those. That is a fact. So that is one way of grabbing attention in addition to Netflix. And to some extent, I don't mean to comment on the quality of these films at all, because that's often not what Oscars do. But especially with short films, it's about how you can grab attention

for things that aren't readily available. I mean, Oscar Isaac is also obviously very famous. So you could see it going that way. But I'm going to go with Two Distant Strangers. I chose the same. I think that's where they're going to go with this. I think your theory is very sound. I think it probably will be sound in the other categories as well. So let's just talk about them right now. Best animated short film. Here are the nominees. Burrow, Genius Loci,

If Anything Happens, I Love You, Opera, and Yes People. Gotta say, I liked a lot of these. I know you're not the biggest animation fan in the world i thought they were quite good i did too and i we don't need to get into a um a debate about the merits of animation or whatever right now because that's unfair to the many like extremely talented people who make animation but i do find these like concentrated animated bursts like are like an expression of the possibility of the medium um in a way that sometimes watching like a pixar film for children i get a little frustrated by so i was really impressed with them as well i think the best one universally understood to be the best one opera is also the hardest to see and therefore probably won't win i think that's correct i think that's a shame because it is without question the masterpiece of this bunch. I think all five of these are worth recommending. But opera, I think

you can get it from some virtual cinemas, but it's a challenge to track it down and hopefully it'll be made more widely available. It is not likely to win. I again, I'm subscribing to your Netflix availability theory here and choosing if anything happens, love you which i think is also quite good which is hand-drawn pencil-drawn um kind of beautiful heartbreaking uh short story i have the same pick i think yeah i'll go with it okay i'm pretty charmed by burrow just want to say also six minutes long yeah and available on disney plus is very moving yeah okay i wouldn't have i wouldn't have guessed that. I have a heart. I didn't say you did not. But not usually a heart for animated creatures.

Yeah. Very, very cute. Little bunny. If Rango were six minutes long, would you like it? Yes. I would. I mean, that's another thing. If it were like six minutes of anything. Perhaps that's my new business is just cutting Rango into six minute pieces and serving

it to you over time that sounds like it'd be fun you know I do think I saw Rango like I think that I saw it in theaters you would know if you saw it you would never forget it it would be emblazoned upon your memory do you think I honestly it is emblazoned in my memory because I was living in New York and it was just like this very very cool girl that I went to college with who like I knew and we had mutual friends you know we were like friendly but we weren't really friends and then she like grew up in New York as well so she was just like extremely impressive to to Atlanta Amanda and then we all moved to New York after college and she was like do you want to go see this movie with me and I was like oh my god this this cool girl wants to hang out with me.

So that's how you get me to see Rango, by the way, is just being incredibly unaccessibly cool. And I'll go watch an animated movie. If there is something that I am profoundly not, it is a cool girl. I'm doing my best though. Okay, best documentary short. Here are the nominees. Colette, a concerto is a conversation.

Do not split hunger ward and a love song for Latasha. This category historically is often comprised of very difficult to watch very serious films. And that is certainly the case here. Once more, this is a deep and rough collection of movies. I, I hunger war in particular is just absolutely

devastating and almost impossible to watch. Yes. And yet we still watched it. Hunger War is about an active therapeutic feeding center in Yemen feeding young children who are malnourished. And it is very intimate and very upsetting. You know, did you have a favorite of the bunch? It seems a bit odd to describe a favorite of these films, but they're, they're well-made. I was really surprised by Colette because it really just becomes a story

about this one, like very, it's about a woman who was in the french resistance and she is now you know much older and goes back to visit the site of her brother's death with a french researcher a much younger person but they kind of are finding this magical this movie in in the moment and she has a really surprising and emotional reaction and sort of forges this bond with the researcher. And it's very clear that they didn't expect it,

but she's such a compelling presence. And you're just like watching someone really go through something. Very vulnerable again, like very raw, but I was pretty moved by it. I was as well. I thought that was quite good. It is also directed by Anthony G Aquino,

who is the brother of Michael Giacchino, the famed composer. And so there is some suspicion that maybe this film has a solid chance because it's a very connected sort of movie. But I do think that the leader in the clubhouse, so to speak this is a story about Latasha Harlins, who is a young black girl who was shot and killed in Los Angeles in 1991. And who was, you know, that incident was a significant turning point in the LA riots and has been, you know, has been, I think, talked about a lot over the years, but not necessarily contextualized

in the way that this film does, which is to say like it really grounds it in the human experiences of the people who are affected by it. I also found it as like a, an act of filmmaking to be really impressive. It's it's not your traditional documentary style. It's far more impressionistic.

It's far more, it relies on animation. It relies on the sort of like fracturing imagery and changing color schemes and like deprioritizing the typical kind of documentary straight ahead into camera interview archival footage approach that we see from a lot of films. So I was impressed with this movie and this movie is also available on Netflix as you pointed out. So, you know, this is my, this is my prediction. Yeah, it's mine as well. It's very beautiful. And as you said, gives a real sense of the person and a community in an event that took on

much larger historical valence. And moving. Hard to watch as well, but beautiful. And available on Netflix. I would expect a win there. Okay, let's go to best visual effects, a radically different category from the one we were just discussing.

Here are the nominees for best visual effects, Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, and Tenet. Now, historically, this category is populated by massive blockbusters. And we don't have a lot of those. We do have Tenet, and I guess Mulan kind of sort of qualifies. And we don't have a lot of those. We do have Tenet and I guess Mulan kind of sort of qualifies. And then we have a Netflix movie and we have a

Disney Plus movie and we have Love and Monsters. Have you seen Love and Monsters, Amanda? No, I have not. Should I see it? I like one of those things. So it is a couple of things about this movie. It was released in theaters during the pandemic. It's from a studio. I think I want to say it's Sony. And it's now available on Netflix. And if you go to Letterboxd, which is, of course, a social media service that I enjoy, it is currently the most popular movie on Letterboxd. It's basically like teen romance meets monster movie.

You know, it's like YA meets monster movie. The monsters are good. It stars Dylan O'Brien, who's an actor I like. Also famed Mets fan. I thought it was not bad. And it's like an example of a kind of a movie that I'd like to for us to try to figure out how to talk about. You know, Naaman and I did an episode about the empty man. And it's very similar to the empty man.

And it's like it got released. No one cared. It hit a streaming service. And everybody was like, whoa, this movie. Perhaps we should talk about it. I just don't know when is the right time to cover something like that. Maybe we can brainstorm on it together or something I'm suggesting. I think also we live in a crazy new world where if you notice that something is available for a lot of people to see and people are talking about it, that's probably justification

for us to do a podcast about it. I think as many people have seen Love is Monsters as probably have seen many of the films nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. So, you know, we're making it up. That's a great point. I think that's entirely plausible that more people have seen Love and Monsters

than have seen Minari and The Father combined. Not me, though. Not you. What are you picking in this category? So I'm going with tenant, but I feel really stupid about that. Um, I, I think that the tenant will win because all of the, um, as of the great appreciation that many technicians have for Christopher Nolan nolan and for honestly tenant which was very impressive but midnight sky won at like kind of the visual effects society which is the guild award and if you look back at this category like space movies crush it in this category

interesting and i so if if midnight sky wins because people are just like oh space you know they're floating then like i'm to be really mad at myself. I went with 10 to 2, but you've just made a compelling case. You did your homework. I tried. I think in the same way that Christopher Nolan is admired, I do think George Clooney is admired as well. And the Midnight Sky, that's a movie that, you know, we talked about it on the show.

I don't think really worked for us all that well. But I wonder if it would have worked better if it was on a big screen. It is a movie that feels like maybe something was lost on a big screen. No, you're shaking your head. No, I don't really think so. I don't think that it would solve like the basic story issues. And also, though, I'd love to talk, whatever. My understanding, can I just spoil The Midnight Sky for people now?

If you don't want The Midnight Sky spoiled for you, please fast forward 30 seconds because we definitely won't be talking about it for longer than that. So I have not read the novel that The Midnight Sky is based upon, but I live with someone who has. And he told me that... Was it The Great Gatsby? Is that what it was based on? Yeah, how'd you know? Okay. me that the great gatsby is that what it was based on yeah how'd you know okay um the the felicity jones character in the in the book is not pregnant is not expecting a child yes i did notice and and so to george clooney's immense credit um once felicity jones became pregnant just rewrote the movie. But like that entire movie is about

fathers and daughters and parenting. And so like, what is that book about? And what is, what was the first script like before they made this change to like, at least make some sense to the extent that I like understood or like connected to that movie? It was because of like the parenting stuff that they explore. Well, I think you could make the case that he made the change, obviously, in part because he really wanted to work with Phil City Jones and had cast her in the role. And also because it was convenient for the storytelling that it only solidified the one of the key theme of the movie, which is the relationship between parents and their children. Right. Sure. But I just I don't know. I have some real questions about what was in the first

script. That's all. Okay. Hold on. Let me get George on the phone and we'll loop him in here. Bobby, can you send him the zoom link? George, are you there? No. Okay. Let's go to the next category. Best makeup and hairstyling. Here are the nominees. Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mank, and Pin pinocchio so just a quick aside here and i know you'll agree with me on this this was probably due to timing emma was released right before we had a kind of lockdown in march or maybe late february of last year but that sure seems like a movie that could have done really well at the oscars this year and if this had been a september movie on a streaming, rather than a movie that got

shuttled to iTunes very quickly after the pandemic started, Anya Taylor-Joy obviously has emerged as a big star in the aftermath of The Queen's Gambit. It's a very well-made movie. It's a creative adaptation of an oft-adapted

story, and a young female filmmaker whose movies I think we're both excited to see a lot in the future in Autumn to Wild. So it feels like it's weird that it got a look here and nowhere else. I really don't know. I think you're right that it's just early. And also Emma is one of the slight is unfair. It's just like, it's the most fun of the Jane Austen. It's like, she's the most, the prick Jane Austen. It's like, she's the most, the prickliest heroine and there's the most possibility and obviously clueless, which is, I still think the number one adaptation is in the market. So, but it's a little bit like people,

the Oscars don't take comedy seriously. And they also don't take things that are like having fun with the, you know, very holy costume drama that was the staple of the Oscars for so long. I will also just say in this particular category, the makeup and hairstylist did tremendous work, but Regency hairstyles are just not my bag. What were these people thinking? It's just like, what were they doing? So many weird curls in places.

It's very strange. Would you say that the makeup and hairstyling and hillbilly elegy is more your thing? Don't be rude. I don't want to talk about that movie. You made me talk about it. I don't acknowledge it. Okay.

I think we're both going Ma Rainey's Black Bottom here, which has been the predicted winner of this category for many months now. And it seems like it's got it in the bag. Let's go to best costume design. Here are the nominees. Emma, again, Manc, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mulan, and Pinocchio. Okay. I think it's also Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Yes. And there is something a little bit weird about the way that this movie is kind of being recognized in these categories and not in Best Picture, and there's a complexity. I think you could make the case

that actually these aren't necessarily the best parts of the movie, that the best parts of the movie are the way that the movie is staged and the performances and the way that they transformed a stage play into a filmic adaptation. But sometimes that's what happens at the Oscars.

I agree with everything that you just said. I would add that the costume designer here is Anne Roth, who has designed many wonderful costumes, but I mean, among them talented Mr. Ripley. So shout out forever to Anne Roth. It's fine with me if she wins for as many Oscars as she wants.

Anne Roth is 89 years old, Amanda. Well, she's doing great work. That's amazing. She has an incredible career. Check out her IMDb. All right, let's go to the next category.

Best Production Design. I think we're in agreement on this one as well. Here are the nominees. The Father, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, and Tenet. Hmm. I think I had overlooked this Tenet nomination. That's interesting.

It's gotten a shout here. It does have quite good production design, frankly. They built a world. That's what you're looking for. Did a film build a world? I think the father also very impressively built a world here. And that's probably an overlooked part of this movie as well. Even though I've been a little bit more mild on the father than you were,

the way that that movie is executed is also, I think, very impressive. That being said, I think we both believe that Mank is going to win i think very impressive that being said i think we both believe that mank is it's gonna win it's an oscar wow wow that's congratulations to mank yeah that's like the five-year-old got a walk in t-ball that's like i don't know what to say so sad they really like it when they make old timey things in movies so uh you know the ringers nor prince yadi was tweeting yesterday about potentially watching mank um shout out nora she did a great job on every single album podcast i would recommend people listen to that uh i didn't follow up with her and ask her if she watched mank okay wow what a great anecdote i love as well do

you want to do you want to text her right now be like nora did you watch mank maybe we should have george clooney call nora and find out if she watched mank do you think i have both of those phone numbers so i can make that happen okay i'll have to check in with nora about that okay let's go we're both going mank that's great let's go to best sound here now this is the first year of course in which the two sound categories have been combined here are are the nominees. Greyhound. Remember that movie? I do. It's just what... Apple TV Plus? Who is Dickie?

And what is happening? I just... It was all so grey. It was all one color. And Apple insists on having the largest watermark possible in screeners. So it was like Amanda Dobbins

was another ship on the sea. And then they are just yelling things. I don't know what happened in this movie. Did not expect a Greyhound meltdown out of you, but nevertheless, that's how I know we're 20 predictions into this episode. The other nominees in this category are Mank, News of the World, Sound of Metal, and Soul. What are you going with, Amanda? Sound of Metal. It's got to be Sound of Metal. Yeah. That's why we're in a very dull phase of our predictions here, because these are very chalky. This has been expected for many months now, and it is worthy.

Yeah. Let me just say, as someone who's on record as not being a huge fan of this movie, sound is obviously essential to the storytelling. And what they do in order to communicate that experience is a real achievement, and it's completely deserving in this category. I agree. Another movie I would have loved to have seen in a movie theater. Unfortunately, I didn't get the chance, but you get the sense that especially in those early scenes when Riz Ahmed's character is playing the drums and kind of grappling with the loss of his hearing, but there's something really powerful and impressive and surrounding,

you know, that's it's a tension building device that they've got in the sound there. So that would be certainly a good winner. Let's go to Best Cinematography. Here are the nominees. Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. What are you going with? I debated a little bit because I think that Mank won at the Guild Awards, the American Society of Cinematographers Awards.

But Nomadland is sort of considered to be the favorite here in the consensus of just kind of like people really like Nomadland. And obviously its cinematography is a huge part of its appeal. So under the theory of people are just checking boxes because they don't know how to log onto a website, I'm going to go with Nomadland. So the ASC is not historically predictive in this category.

Yeah. But I'm just going to go Mank just to kind of break this up a little bit. I think it certainly seems like there is support across the board in Nomadland in almost all of its key categories. But I don't know. I think that there is an abiding appreciation for the work that David Fincher puts into this. We've seen him recognized in the best film editing category, his collaborators in the past. This feels like a moment when Eric Messerschmidt, who is the cinematographer of Mank, could be recognized as well. I think over time, we're going to find that more people are going to come to admire

what Fincher and Messerschmitt did with this movie as opposed to be confused by it. It seemed very kind of gimmicky at first. And I think if you revisit that film and the depth and care that was put into the way that it was shot, I could see there being a broad amount of support from technicians in the same way

that you cited for Christopher Nolan and Tenet. But maybe that's just wishful thinking for Mank and i just want it to get a single in its t-ball game in 30 years when we're giving our exit interview to the new york times a paper that still exists will you just be like i think people are really going to come to appreciate mank i say this is someone who really liked Mank. It's sad. I've become a complete and utter parody of myself over the last 12 months, and I feel bad about it. But, you know, we are who we are.

We're doing our best. Let's go to the next category. Best film editing here are the nominees The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Okay, what are you going with here? Vacillated a little because a lot of predictors and maybe even some of the odds makers are suggesting Sound of Metal here.

I think that's based on the fact that Sound of Metal won in the editing category at the BAFTAs. Trial of Chicago 7 won at the Ace Eddies Award. And I just, the BAFTAs were very strange this year in their nominating and voting process, in addition to many other ways in which the BAFTAs are strange. So I don't feel that they are as reliable. And also, this is just a one-off, but last year Ford versus Ferrari won in this category, which leads me to suggest that these people have some old timey tastes.

So I'm going with Trial of Chicago 7. I'm going with Sound of Metal for the reason that you cited, because of that win at the BAFTAs. But this is really up in the air. I got to be honest. I have no idea why either of those movies would win best film editing. The two films that should be winning here are The Father and Nomadland. Those are the extraordinary accomplishments in film editing, at least from my vantage point.

Not that I'm an expert, but when you think about the decisions and the way that films are cut, clearly there is a level of intentionality and depth to the choices that are being made in The Father and Nomadland, regardless of how you feel about those movies. The Trial of the Chicago 7 one, I'm just baffled by. I think that film is arguably poorly edited and that's one of its great flaws. So the idea of it winning here is just confusing to me. I mean, I didn't vote for it.

I'm just reading the tea leaves. I'm with you. I'm not blaming you. I'm just confused by it. Okay, let's go to Best Animated Feature. This is kind of a dull one. Here are the nominees. Onward, Over the Moon, a Sean the Sheep movie, Farmageddon, Soul, and Wolfwalkers. Let me tell you something.

I have seen a Sean the Sheep movie, Farmageddon, which is the second Sean the Sheep movie, which comes from Aardman, which is responsible for Wallace and Gromit, and films like Early Man and Chicken Run. They're really good at what they do. This movie is overlooked, as usual. Just putting that, it's basically a silent film as almost, as are almost all Aardman films. Really funny, really clever. There you go. There's my case for that.

There's no way it's winning. Of course, Soul is going to win in this category. Yes, Soul will win. A film I have seen. Next category, best documentary feature the nominees are collective crip camp the mole agent my octopus teacher and time wow you've you've shot me here you've shot me here listen my octopus teacher is the favorite according to all the odds makers and i really think that it's just that it's on netflix and people have seen it you know, because it's about an octopus. That's not why. But that's not why people are going to vote for it. Why? It's because it makes people feel good. Okay. Well, congratulations to them. I refuse to be a part of it. And so I have chosen Collective, which I think is an extraordinary film. And I will say Collective is nominated both in Best Documentary and in Best

International Feature. So there is like an increased level of awareness about this movie, which if you haven't seen it, I recommend it. It is devastating. It is about a healthcare scandal in Romania and a group of journalists and some public health officials who try to investigate it. And I think it's really well made. I think it has a lot of the journalism notes that obviously really speak to me, but it's really hard not to watch this movie and reflect upon how public health and healthcare is handled more generally. And that's something that we've all been thinking about. So I don't think it'll win. I think my activist teacher will win,

but I don't, I don't want that win. So I'm going collective. Uh, I appreciate you taking an emotional stand. I would, I would prefer the time wind of all of these movies. I mean, I would too.

Time is like my favorite movie of the year, but yeah. Yeah. I think time is the one that it kind of pushes the boundaries specifically of what documentary can be. And obviously it tells a story that is not just important, but beautiful. Um, I'm choosing my octopus teacher because it's going to win and um you know people just wanted to vibe out in the ocean you know they just wanted to

chill with their with their their cephalopod for more about time listen to the episode that we did the alternative oscars episode that we did with wesley morris it is one of my favorite movies of the year for for sure. I just went with Collective because at least it was nominated in two categories, so people seem to know what it is. Well, let's talk about Collective again. Let's go to Best International Feature. The other nominees are Another Round, Better Days, The Man Who Sold His Skin, and Quo Vadis Aida. And the thing about Collective is it's in the same position that Honeyland was in at the last race, which is that it was nominated in both of these categories, as you cited.

And Honeyland, of course, did not win in either of those categories. And I don't think Collective is going to win in either of these categories. And I think that there is a new version of vote splitting that's happening here. People see this movie on the ballot twice in two separate categories, recognizing features. And in some cases, they go in one direction. In some cases, they go in one direction. In some cases, they go in another direction. And while it's cool to see a movie, especially a documentary recognized in a feature format, I mean, it's so rare that documentaries get recognized in Best Picture. So it's nice to see them get recognized in Best International Feature. I'm, of course, very fond of documentaries.

But I think it's actually hurting these movies. I think it's hurting their ability to win awards. So I don't know if a change needs to be made there. What do you think? I don't know. I think more people are going to see Collective because it was nominated twice than if it had not been at all. It's a little uphill battle anyway to get people to watch a very important, and I'm sorry to use the I word, but upsetting movie about a healthcare scandal in Romania. I'm like, I'm aware that I'm not selling people like Godzilla versus Kong two there,

but you know, it's so if we get to talk about a collective on a podcast, it's okay by me. Really? Yeah, I agree with you. I think we're both almost certain that another round though, it's going to win in this category.

This is Thomas Vinterberg's film from Denmark, starring Mad mads mickelson we've sung its praises on this show i think in addition to being best international feature it's one of the very best movies of 2020 uh have you had a chance to check out the other nominees here yeah i wanted to talk about yeah it's pretty terrific it's fantastic i mean again not an uplifting film but um the way that it tells the story that it is telling um and i mean i've seen it compared to a paul greengrass film in a lot of ways and it is uh really tense and and well made and then just absolutely i i've i've thought about the last 10 minutes of that film well i guess i've thought about the last 10 minutes of that film. Well, I guess I've thought about the ending of that film a lot since I've seen it. Yeah, this is a Bosnian film from Yasmila Banachik.

It's just a, it is, Paul Greengrass is an interesting comparison. I hadn't read that, but that does make sense in terms of the intimacy and the intensity and the shakiness of some of the storytelling. It's a story, obviously, about a war-torn region at a very specific time in the 90s. And in addition to being kind of convulsive

and at times scary movie, it features a lot of really good performances. This is another thing that we don't necessarily always talk about when we're talking about the best international feature. But Jasna Duricic, who I think is the titular Aida, is really, really good in this movie um so if people have haven't had a chance to check that one out i would uh recommend that they do you

know the man who sold the skin i thought was not good and i was surprised to see it nominated honestly would agree with you that was one of the i gotta make sure i've seen everything before we do these and um and which you know it's not a fair position to put it in like those films almost never benefit from me being like crap i have 72 hours and I need to make sure I've seen everything. But I didn't enjoy it either. Okay, that concludes the first act of the show and now we go to the eight big categories or i guess the final six categories since we hit on the supporting categories let's go with a best original screenplay chat first here are the nominees for judas and the black messiah will

berson shaka king keith lucas and kenny lucas for minari we have lee isaac chung for promising young woman emerald fennel for sound of Metal, Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Martyr, and Darius Martyr. And for the Trial of the Chicago 7, we have Aaron Sorkin. What do you got? Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman. I do as well.

She won both the WGAs, which are sometimes a little bit misleading because not everyone is eligible for the WGAs because which are sometimes a little bit misleading because not everyone is eligible for the WGAs because of the kind of the rules there. And then she also wanted the BAFTAs. And again, she's British. So perhaps the BAFTAs are favoring her a little bit, but this is, as we've talked about ad nauseum, the category where people reward someone they really like, but who they don't want to give Best Picture

or any of the major awards to, including like most of your and my favorite filmmakers. And it seems that a lot of people really like this movie and they like Emerald Finale and her vision for it. And I think this is a way to award her. So, you know, the last two years, this category is actually matched with best picture so obviously nomadland is an adaptation and i just don't know if it if that indicates any sort of stronger

support because you're right previous to that you had movies like get out and manchester by the sea and her and django and uh the hurt locker and juno and this is sofia coppola one in this category pedro motovar one in this category. Pedro Almodovar one in this category. We talked about Gosford Park recently with Chris that one in this category.

So I don't know what it actually signals. I think you're right that there's there's a desire to show support for this movie. If this is the only place it goes, we

shall see. We have one more category. I think we're it's going to matter to talk about it. I'm going promising young woman as well.

Let's go to a best, best adapted screenplay. Here are the nominees. Borat subsequent movie film. There are like a hundred people who wrote this movie. I'm not going to list all their names. The father, Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller,

Nomadland, Chloe Zhao, One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers, The White Tiger, Ramin Barani. Where are you going? I have Nomadland written down.

And again, I am operating on the people just checking boxes, but it seems like something else could happen here. Well, tell me what. Well, I believe the father won at the BAF the BAFTAs which you know again British people but I do think that in terms of that that's a play and the way that they turned it into like a very visual experience and just also the like ingenuity of the screenplay itself which I don't want to speak too much about in case people actually haven't seen the father like kind of experiencing that firsthand is I along with Anthony Hopkins's performance is what I really liked about the film so I think

it's deserving but has anyone really seen the father I doesn't it was very difficult for me to see it I figured it out I know how to log on um and then Borat obviously won at the WGAs but again weird because not Nomadland in particular was not eligible for a WGA award in this category and then if you read all the anonymous ballots lots of people being like that was improvised who wrote a screenplay for that

so I don't know it seems like Nomadland is the safest pick. I'm sorry to be safe. I'm sorry. You might have talked me into the father though. Well, if I were voting, maybe I would with these nominees.

I think I personally would vote for the father. Gosh. Well, it seems like Nomadland is going to win. Obviously the odds are heavily in Nomadland's favor. Let's actually look at those odds. According to the action network today, Where do they sit? I haven't been looking at this at all since we've been chatting. So Nomadland is at an 80% implied

probability at minus 400. That's a lot. The father has a 25% implied probability. So listen, this is the thing that we're looking at the Action Network to predict what's happening. I looked at this on election day and i don't recommend that experience to anyone this this changes a lot so it's really just where it is at this moment in time when we talk should we talk more about election day no let's never do that but though sean oh my god what did you do on the afternoon of election day before results came in do Do you remember what film you watched? Because I do. I'm almost certain it was Hillbilly Elegy. It absolutely was. And I was like for the rest of my life, I will remember that you, Sean Fennessey, decided to watch Hillbilly Elegy

while waiting for the 2020 election returns. Your choices and how you care for yourself intellectually and emotionally will never make sense to me. Well, Amanda, I've given this a lot of thought. And the thing is, we live in a society. And I'm just trying to keep that at the front of my mind at all times. Okay. Thank you. Let's go to the next category. That's Best Director. Here are the nominees. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, David Fincher for Mank, Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, and Chloe Zhao for Nomadland. So this is almost certainly going to be Chloe Zhao for Nomadland. Best Director has not been that shocking of late.

I would say even in the Moonlight La La Land year, we still got a Damien Chazelle win. Well, I mean, last year it was because I'll never forget. I chose the exact wrong moment to go to the bathroom. And I came back and into Bill's office where you and I were watching the Oscars together. And you just like had a dumbstruck look on your face. And you were like, Bong Joon-ho won. He won. And I made it back in time for his absolutely wonderful acceptance speech. But I don't think that we were expecting that last year.

We weren't but I thought it could I thought it could happen. Right. Okay. You know like there was there was certainly a chance that it could happen

especially given the momentum that Parasite had. There's no conversation about anybody but Chloe Zhao winning right now as far as I can tell. You know Sam Mendes certainly there was

a strong sense. Oh my God, I forgot about that. But he'd already won at that point. So to me, there was some logical return. And then Alfonso Cuaron and del Toro and Chazelle and Inarritu and Inarritu before that and Cuaron before that.

These were hugely predicted outcomes. And you're right that bong joon-ho was exciting but the reason i was so excited was i would it made me think wow this could actually win best picture maybe this will just be the chazelle to you know barry's win for lala for for for moonlight but it that was when the momentum on the night turned for sure yes and and and that was great and it you know I don't know what, I mean, I guess for me, that would be David Fincher winning for Mank

followed by a Mank Best Picture win. What do you think, God, to that? That won't turn any momentum around. I think there would actually just be a massive backlash. It's far more likely that Chloe Zhao wins for Best Director and then Mank wins for Best Picture

than that David Fincher wins for Best Director and Noah Madland wins Best Picture. Will David Fincher die Oscar-less? Answer it right now. I, maybe? I don't like that. I don't like saying that out loud, but I think he is-

Choose a side, yes or no. I don't know, Sean. The last year has taught me that I don't know, that I have to accept that I don't control the future and I can't know everything that's going to happen. Okay. I'm working through it. I need you to support me. I don't know. I hope that he does. I think that the Academy needs to, you know, learn how to watch movies and appreciate David Fincher. That's some of the recommendations that would be a part of my door to door, how to vote for the Oscar service. Yes. White gloves and white tux.

Right. And then like a small presentation with like probably just poster board because I'm not going to try to set up a PowerPoint about how to respect David Fincher and Ben Affleck. Okay. We're both going Chloe Zhao for best director. We've got three more categories. Here's the next one. Best actress. The most exciting, confusing, up in the air category at these Academy Awards. Here are the nominees. Viola Davis for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Andra Day for the United States versus Billie Holiday. Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman.

Frances McDormand, Nomadland. And Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman. Where are you going here? So according to the spreadsheet, I have written down and I think that I am sticking with Viola Davis for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. A couple reasons. She won the SAG award, which, you know, that is an actor's guilt. So that lets you know what the actors are thinking. I think that Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is on the minds of a lot of voters, as we discussed kind of in the costume and the makeup category.

But also without spoiling the next category, it is very much on Oscar voters' minds in the acting category. So I think also that Viola Davis is just like a very extremely talented actor of her generation and well-liked. So I don't think that people would hesitate to vote for her. That's where I am. Do I feel great about it? No. Do I think that it could go any number of ways? Yes. I'm seeing many pundits predict Carey Mulligan here, even though she has not won a ton of awards in the run-up. I'm sticking with Frances McDormand. I've been thinking Frances McDormand the whole time. This obviously would be a historic third win for Frances McDormand. She is, as we have discussed many times, one of

my absolute favorite actresses and I think is amazing in this movie. There is no Nomadland without Frances McDormand, not just because she's the producer, but because her performance grounds the movie in something that would otherwise, I think, be very hard to pin down for your typical movie watcher. That being said, this is the one I feel least good about. I have no idea where this is going to go. If Andra day one, I honestly wouldn't be shocked. I think that it's all four of the five candidates are not totally

unreasonable to me. I don't think this is Vanessa Kirby's year in part because I don't think that that movie is very strong, but I do think that Vanessa Kirby is a person who will like be at the Oscars for the next 20 years. Something I've been thinking about a lot lately. She's, this is just an announcement for her in many ways. Hmm.

Okay. I guess. Yeah. I'm sticking with Francis McDormand. I don't feel good about that. I don't either. I mean, I'll just,

can I just read the implied probability right now from right. So Carrie Mulligan is 44.4%. Viola Davis is 33.3%. Francis McDormand is 20%. Andra Day is 33.3%. Frances McDormand is 20%. Andra Day is 14.3%. And then Vanessa Kirby, who we love, is 4.8%. But that's very close. Very close.

That checks out. That's interesting. So I don't even realize Carey Mulligan was leading by that much, though. That's fascinating. Okay. Well, we shall see. Let's go to Best Actor. This one is not as difficult to predict, I don't think. Here are the nominees. Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins for The Father, Gary Oldman for Mank, Steven Yeun for Minari.

I'm going with Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. I assume you are as well and there's obviously a an expectation that this will be the case and this will be awarded posthumously to chadwick boseman's widow there is you know there is some sense that there could be an anthony hopkins upset we've said it a couple of times on the show if we were doing more oscar shows in the last three months we probably would have said it a lot more times but i've talked to a lot of people now from Bill Simmons to those handful of people that I talked to who were in the Academy this week. And they were all like, this is Anthony Hopkins' best work.

And he's one of the best actors of the last 75 years. And obviously, the loss of Chadwick Boseman is profound. It's horrible. He should be awarded for his great career.

There is a chance that hopkins wins and i think that that's going to create an odd feeling if it does happen it's going to be hard to kind of reconcile how we feel about that there's absolutely a chance he won at the baftas and i as i said i think it's an extraordinary performance um he's he's very good in it. And he's an incredibly important actor to the industry and the world at large. He does not seem to be super interested in the Oscars, which I give him a lot of credit for. It's not in like a I don't care, I'm above it sort of way. It's just that Anthony Hopkins is of a certain age. And he's currently in Wales, where he he is from because he's been vaccinated.

I'm learning all of this from his Instagram, though he has been giving interviews to that effect. And he may actually not be at one of the locations for, if he does win, there may not be a speech, which I guess would be doubly weird, but I sort of understand if you're Anthony Hopkins and everyone is expecting Chadwick Boseman to win and everybody does want to give that posthumous award to Chadwick Boseman. I think there's a, you know, both because of the sense of loss, but really just to like reward a really important career. So I don't really think that you want to be the person who is standing there. Um,

not in the way of that happening, but it will be really strange if it does. I agree. We'll, we'll talk about it if it happens. Um, we have one more category. That category of course is best picture.

Here are the eight nominees for best picture. The father, Judas and the black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Amanda, what are you choosing? I'm trying not to overthink it.

I'm just going with Nomadland. Could be wrong. Have been wrong, I think, pretty much every year out of either, mostly for overthinking it, but also sometimes for trying to vote with my heart instead of trying to vote with the Academy. But I just, it has so consistently won at every opportunity. I'm going Nomadland as well.

Okay. I feel the trial of the Chicago 7 scratching at the back of my brain right now. Now, maybe this is just fear mongering, but I don't know. I don't know. Green Book won two years ago, Amanda. I do remember that. I mean, that that was only two years ago is just says a lot more about the passage of time

and what we've all been through in those last two years than anything. But my goodness, I do remember that happening. Wasn't a fan. No, it was unfortunate. I, you know,

I think this would be similarly complicated because obviously there's a lot of affection for Sorkin. This is obviously not his best work. I've people have now just like taken the restrictor plate off of their takes on this movie. Like there's no, no bless oblige about Sorkin. I was like,

this movie sucks. People are just directly telling me this. I don't think it sucks personally. But people who are kind of mad about it on the other hand it flatters

a certain kind of generational sensibility and it indicates you know the 60s mattered. And like I don't think you and I really care that the 60s mattered.

But I think there are some people who do care about that concept. Yeah. You and I even when we saw it I mean listen to our podcast about trial of the Chicago 7 it's two people with an immense amount of respect and in my case like reverence for a lot of Aaron Sorgan's work trying to make sense of the fact that it just didn't totally add up for us in the way that you would

want it to um which I suppose makes it a very fitting best picture winner but i i don't know i do you want i don't want that to happen i mean i know that you don't want that to happen but i'm just thinking about us like firing up the the podcast afterwards having to be like yay trial of chicago seven well i think that's probably not how we would respond i think we probably have to find an adequate way to reconcile what a win like that means in a year in which so many, um, black and,

uh, Asian American and female filmmakers were being recognized for a movie to go to Aaron Sorkin about something that happened in 1968. You know, that would be same old Oscars. That would be the conversation. It would be a little messy. Sort of,

but it would be Netflix would finally win best picture, which is also, you know, what a one to win on. I am making a face. Not a film that they produced, though, just a film that they acquired from Paramount. And then just it's available on Netflix. So people watched it and then voted for it theory would also probably apply there which is not the most um confidence inspiring referendum on the movie industry at large well we have a lot to look forward to and a few things to dread if you enjoyed this conversation please tune in sunday night after the oscars amanda and i will be going sort of live we'll be recording live and then publishing an episode and you can hear that as soon as we are ready. Amanda, thank you as always for all of your diligent homework,

your careful strategy, your sincere entrepreneurial spirit around new businesses for the Academy. I was going to be like, why are you just negging me for being boring? I brought a lot of fire to this, okay? Thanks for the fire. We'll see you next time on The Big Picture.