The Big Picture - Are the Oscars in a State of Crisis? | The Oscars Show (Ep. 121)

Episode Date: January 30, 2019

This week we break down a big win for ‘Black Panther’ at the SAG Awards and whether it will improve its Best Picture chances (2:20). Then Sean shares his Academy Award nomination frustrations, and... we examine how the telecast could be headed for disaster (16:00). Finally, we take a long look at the Best Director race, ‘Roma,’ and Netflix’s standing in the Oscar conversation (45:26). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins How Does Netflix Make Money? | Ringer PhD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Liz Kelley. We just launched a brand new golf podcast called Fairway Rollin', where Joe House is joined by a rotating cast of Ringer and golf world personalities every week. They'll break down the latest in golf headlines and news from social media, keep up with everything Tiger Woods, and delve into the world of golf gambling. The first episode was just released earlier this week, with new episodes being published every Monday going forward. You can download and subscribe to Fairway Rolling on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Sean Fennessey. And I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about the Oscars. First of all, I want to thank Chris Ryan for filling in for me last week. Amanda, thank you very much for hitting everything in the aftermath of the Oscar nominations,
Starting point is 00:00:52 which were largely predictable, but also a little bit absurd. As I look back on them, I have a lot to say. So this may be a longer than usual episode. I think that's great as long as I'm allowed to cross-examine your various, if we can build that in. Absolutely. Okay, great. I think that's part of the social contract of this podcast. Before we go any further though, Amanda, I want to ask you, have you seen the movie The Wife? Sean, I have seen The Wife. Oh man, me too. We both saw The Wife. I go away for one week. I know. We killed a bit completely. Well, I want to say the Oscar nominations and then the SAG Awards killed the bit. The bit's over.
Starting point is 00:01:28 I know. The bit is over. In honor of killing the bit, next week, we're going to spend probably more time than we need to examining the wife. We'll have a wife-a-palooza of sorts. Okay, that's great. I already have a lot of takes, so I just like, I'll put them in the oven for a week and then it will be the hottest.
Starting point is 00:01:45 I can't wait. Hopefully they're beautiful chocolate chip cookie takes. I also have a lot to say about this movie, even though I don't think it's an important movie, but that's that we'll save it for next week. Certainly not. Spoiler alert. Tune in next week. Wife of Palooza. So now let's go to the big pictures.
Starting point is 00:02:00 Big picture. This is a problem in the big picture. You know what I mean? Okay, Amanda. I think that the Oscars might be in a little bit of a state of crisis here. Just a little? Yeah. There's many reasons for that.
Starting point is 00:02:14 You and Chris touched on this a little bit last week in terms of the nominations. Maybe we should start there and focus on the SAG Awards, which happened on Sunday, and I thought were very confusing. Now, the SAG Awards are not necessarily the most accurate predictor of the Oscar results, but they give us some insights. And boy, this was a weird one. We have to start with the most important award, which of course was Best Ensemble. That's sort of the best picture award at the SAG Awards. And Black Panther won.
Starting point is 00:02:39 This is the first kind of major award by a voting body of craftspeople that Black Panther has won at all. So we were moving in this direction last week. You guys, I thought, very wisely identified the race as Roma versus Green Book. And I think, which is ridiculous. Never say anything in public is the moral of that. Well, I think, and I think, I think a handful of people did correctly identify that that's where we had gone. A Star is Burning kind of fallen away. There's a little bit of Black Klansman Dark Horse conversation that maybe we'll hit on here on today's episode. But Black Panther's win does something interesting. So let's talk about what the SAG Awards are. It's
Starting point is 00:03:11 not just the Screen Actors Guild, it's AFTRA, which is also a radio organization, a radio union that also votes on this award. So there's a lot of people that vote on this award and a lot of people that do not vote on the Oscars. So we don't necessarily want to be tricked into thinking that this is, I don't know, biblical about what's going to happen in a few weeks. But it is meaningful. What was your reaction to Black Panther winning? My instant reaction was great. Why not? Black Panther is great. And I think we all would have felt disappointed and bummed out if it had gone through the entire award season without any sort of recognition beyond an Oscar nomination. So you know what? I love that they got the moment
Starting point is 00:03:49 in the Senate is deserving. Also, by the definition of best ensemble, yeah, pretty great. It's a pretty deep bench in Black Panther, and it's nice that everyone in the cast was recognized. So I felt good about it on its face. And possibly that's how a lot of voters felt. And maybe we don't have to overthink it, especially as you noted some of the more casual voters in the SAG-AFTRA grouping. But my second reaction... Wait, what about, how did you respond to it as the co-host of an Oscars podcast? Right, no, that's my second reaction. As the co-host of an ostrich podcast is like lol what yeah but but i'm going with the positive lol what here because every year at this time we're so tired and we think we know exactly what's going to happen and then we start kind of making
Starting point is 00:04:36 up fantasies about spoilers of what's going to happen just to entertain ourselves remember you and i famously picked get out on our ballots last year at the last hour, just because we were bored. Just because we had been talking about Shape of Water for longer than anyone has talked about Shape of Water since. And, you know, you get tired, you get bored. And I think that was our concern when starting this podcast in November. It was like, okay, well, we're going to be talking about the same thing. Yeah, it turns out this was a good idea because this has been so confusing. So, you know, intrigue. Great. Let's embrace it.
Starting point is 00:05:07 More to yell about. Let's talk a little bit about Best Ensemble in general. You know, our producer, Bobby, has very helpfully corresponded the winner of the Best Ensemble Award and the Oscars over the years. And frankly, they don't match up that much. It's only about half the time. Some recent winners include Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, which, of course, did not win Best Picture. Hidden Figures, Before That Spotlight, which did win. Birdman, which did win. American Hustle, which did not. Argo, which did. The Help, which did not. And you can sense a pattern, especially in the last 10 years, which is SAG awards a very particular kind
Starting point is 00:05:38 of movie. That movie is often successful at the box office. It often includes a lot of performance, not just a lot of people performing, but a lot of performing, a lot of loud often includes a lot of performance, not just a lot of people performing, but a lot of performing, a lot of loudness, a lot of speeches, a lot of fun, you know, the help and hidden figures and, you know, to a slightly lesser extent, American Hustle are kind of crowd pleasers. They're kind of big movies and they're hits. And Black Panther kind of falls in line with that history. You know, Three Billboards is a very showy movie. A lot of the actors are doing a lot in that movie. So you can see the way that the tides kind of shift between these two bodies. You know, they're not necessarily rewarding the same thing. So I thought that that was kind of interesting. I don't really think Black Panther
Starting point is 00:06:18 has a chance here. It's funny when I talked to a voter probably nine months ago, right when Black Panther was like, I think maybe let's say we were in May, Black Panther had become a massive movie, bigger than even they had expected. And then the Oscar conversation kind of really started to concretize. And the one thing that this voter said to me was, it's not going to have any support in the actors group because they're not going to nominate Michael B. Jordan. They're not going to nominate Chadwick Boseman. They're not going to nominate Angela Bassett. And they didn't. The Oscars didn't nominate Michael B. Jordan. They're not going to nominate Chadwick Boseman. They're not going to nominate Angela Bassett. And they didn't. The Oscars didn't nominate any of those
Starting point is 00:06:46 people. But they have shown some support for the film. And I don't think it's just a sort of, you know, nominal support. So, you know, maybe the preferential balloting, which we'll discuss a lot at length in the coming weeks, could be a factor here, but I don't really think so. Do you think that this really means it has a chance now? No more or less than it did. I mean, I can see, to your point about preferential balloting, I can see Black Panther being the third favorite movie, or not even the third favorite movie, because that's far too loaded a phrase, but the third movie on everyone's ballot. Right. You could see people going all over the place with one and two and having a lot of agendas and weird thoughts and some productive
Starting point is 00:07:28 and some horrifying. And then everyone just being like, well, Black Panther, pretty good. Made a lot of money. I enjoyed it. Superheroes. Yeah, that's true. It could be number three on a lot of ballots. Yeah, and you mentioned that Black Klansman is kind of a dark horse in that respect of it
Starting point is 00:07:43 seems to be a consensus in a year when there's not a lot of consensus but I think Black Panther has a similar appeal I agree also a similar appeal is Glenn Close who I do think yeah we're not going to talk about the film but I do think has locked up best actress yes it would seem so earlier this week someone pointed out to me that olivia coleman is not really on the circuit right now Because olivia coleman is of course shooting the third season of the crown And so she's not able to do the things that you kind of need to do to win awards And glenn close is doing those things really well. She's giving great speeches. She's at all of this stuff She's become a part of meme culture every meme of glenn close staring down lady
Starting point is 00:08:24 Gaga from a distance is the funniest thing to me about award season. Are you up on her Instagram? No. She joined Instagram, I believe, in December. Either she joined it in December or cleaned it out and started again in November, December. Like, very definitive. And it's unbelievably charming. It's just pictures of, like, Glenn Close getting ready for various awards show.
Starting point is 00:08:44 And it's, like, her dog and her her styling team who she's very affectionate about. And it's like a very endearing older person learning Instagram situation. But she's out here in every single way that you can be out here. Okay, sincere question. Do you think that she just discovered Instagram like one of her kids showed it to her? Or do you think that a publicist said, you got to do this so the world can see more of you so that you can win? I'm almost certain that a publicist told her to do it. But, you know, then it would suggest that a kid or a younger person kind of taught her how to do it. And she got interested and was like, oh, you know, I'll try doing this. It's very much like her speech at the Golden Globes, which is she's clearly working this, but also is doing it from a place of, well, as sincere as you can be about wanting to win an award. It's charming. She's charming.
Starting point is 00:09:32 She's working it well. She is working it well. I don't think that Glenn Close is in any state of crisis. I think the best actor might be a little bit. Rami Malek won at the SAG Awards. And boy, a lot has happened with the storyline around Bohemian Rhapsody since you and I last made this show. Sure has. You know, the Bryan Singer story ultimately did come out in The Atlantic.
Starting point is 00:09:52 I read this morning that Bryan Singer stands to make $40 million on the success of Bohemian Rhapsody, connected to his points on the movie. You know, the Bohemian Rhapsody scandal has been well-worn on this podcast and on others. You can read all about it elsewhere. But there is something fascinating about Rami Malek, particularly in other members of the cast and crew, saying that they were not aware of the Bryan Singer allegations before they made the film. A lot of people have found that highly dubious. I do think that Rami Malek gives a great performance. It's been interesting to see in the aftermath of his sort of slow arrival as a frontrunner into this position, people doubting that performance and saying, actually, it's not good. And actually, it's just literally karaoke.
Starting point is 00:10:32 And he's not doing anything that impressive. It's funny how these things kind of change over time. Sure, but run the tape act when I said that like four months ago. So it's fine. Okay. Google Bohemian Rhapsody exit survey on TheRinger.com. It's available for you. Would you prefer Vigo?
Starting point is 00:10:46 No, I would like Bradley Cooper to win this. But counterpoint to everything that you just said, on my most recent flight, Bohemian Rhapsody was the airplane movie of choice. It was just every single screen was people watching Bohemian Rhapsody. And we talk a lot about how much of the online chatter and the journalism and what we're doing here makes it to the general public. And it's not as much as we ourselves would like to believe. And I think that that's the case here. And I certainly don't think that it's going to make it
Starting point is 00:11:22 all the way to the general public in the way that we'd like. And I don't really know how many voters are going to take it seriously. And beyond that, how many are willing to say that Rami Malek should be discounted because of it? So in October, I wrote about the best actor category. And the headline of this piece, which I believe I wrote, was, this is about to be the most competitive best actor race in years. Here are the categories I created. This is the leaders, Bradley Cooper, Ryan Gosling, whoops, Rami Malek. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:53 So that was not bad. Yeah. The Shape of What's to Come. These are films we hadn't yet seen, but that people thought would be contenders. Hugh Jackman for the front runner. Sorry. Willem Dafoe at Eternity's Gate. That worked out.
Starting point is 00:12:04 Viggo Mortensen, Green Book. That also worked out. The Big Bad Unknown, Christian Bale Weiss. That worked out. And the old guy, Robert Redford,
Starting point is 00:12:11 The Old Man and the Gun. Alas. The even older guy, Clint Eastwood, The Mule. Where the fuck is Clint Eastwood in Best Actor? Do you know The Mule
Starting point is 00:12:17 has made $100 million? That's not surprising. Justice for The Mule. It was sold out on Christmas in Atlanta, Georgia. I couldn't take my family, which by the way, it was the only movie my family wanted to see.
Starting point is 00:12:27 Of course it sold out. The mule was pretty fun. The mule was arguably as fun as Bohemian Rhapsody. Sure, but I finally saw The Old Man and the Gun, which is just the mule, but good. So I'm going with Redford on that one. It's like the mule with a light sprinkling of CBD oil. You know,
Starting point is 00:12:45 it's like, it's just like a much more low-toned, like less like goofy version of it. But that's a nice double feature of those two movies. Yeah. The sentimental favorite
Starting point is 00:12:54 on my list was Ethan Hawke for first or fourth. I was going to say, was Ethan Hawke not on this? What the fuck happened to Ethan Hawke? You know what was so upsetting? And I talked about this last week,
Starting point is 00:13:02 but let's just relive it. In the announcements, they went directly from screenplay to best actor. So when Schrader was in screenplay, I was like, he's got it. Ethan Hawke trade, it's coming. 5.30 in the morning. I was actually happy for once in my life. 5.31, no Ethan Hawke. It was like five seconds of hope.
Starting point is 00:13:23 So, so, so dispiriting. Yeah. And predictable. And it's always interesting to me when a performance has universal critical acclaim. I think he kind of dominated the Critics Awards this year. He had something like a seven to one ratio against all of their best actors. And yeah, he got screwed. This is going to be weird in like 15 years when he gets rewarded for like training day two.
Starting point is 00:13:44 I mean, it's gone close. It is gone close. You know, not to spoil next week, but this is what they do. And it's stupid. And they shouldn't do this. This is Ethan Hawke's Dangerous Liaisons. Yeah. What about Supporting Actress?
Starting point is 00:13:54 You know, the winner of Supporting Actress at the SAG Awards was really strange. It was Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, which I think is actually a pretty good performance and has not really been in this conversation virtually at all. I think when we thought she would be nominated, we thought it would be for Mary Poppins Returns, which did not really come to pass. Mary Poppins Returns, kind of an Oscar pariah. It's interesting how that played out over the course of three months. If you'd have asked me six months ago, I would have thought it was going to be in the Best Picture race. It only got a handful of nominations.
Starting point is 00:14:20 She did win Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, which Regina King notably was not nominated at the SAG Awards, even though she is, in the eyes of some, the frontrunner in this race. What did you make of this? Well, I liked her speech. The SAG Awards are sometimes voting for people or recognizable names or people we like as opposed to just a finely drawn performance, if you will. So in that sense, that's why Emily Blunt was up there. She's great for awards season. She proved that in two minutes. The Krasinski thing was very lovely. Good reaction by him.
Starting point is 00:15:04 He's obviously had many years to fine tune that. But how do we be friends with them? How do we just like hang out with them? Go get a dinner of small plates, you know, hang out, order an old fashioned, have a nice evening, chat about films, books we're reading. Right. So I think the trick is that we have to move back to Brooklyn and buy a home in the extreme. Do you know that they just bought an apartment in the same building that Matt Damon bought the penthouse in? Oh, so they're like they they bought real estate together.
Starting point is 00:15:33 So we have to become multimillionaires and be able to afford an apartment in that home on the in Brooklyn Heights on the water. I don't think that's all we have to do. But I think that would be a start. OK. Yeah. Supporting actress is so weird. I still think it's kind of Regina King,
Starting point is 00:15:48 especially because Amy Adams didn't win here. I thought if Amy Adams won for Vice, you could have seen the momentum building for that case. That didn't happen. I want it to be Regina King. I would be really happy with Emma Stone. I think it's still weird to me that there's no major push there, but maybe that's just my thing for Emma Stone.
Starting point is 00:16:04 Will you let me vamp with some Stray Academy Award nominations observations? Yeah, let's go. Let's go. So I already loudly cursed about Ethan Hawke. You know, I think you and Chris mentioned this last week, but I really don't think you can underline enough the Netflix of this whole thing. To me, that is, it feels acute right now. Everything happening with Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, these feel like big stories around this stuff. To me, the biggest story by far is that Netflix did it. They had a plan here.
Starting point is 00:16:30 They set that plan in motion four years ago, and they did it. And slowly but surely, you know, they did Beasts of No Nation. They did Mudbound. They won in documentary categories. They have slowly built themselves up. It was very notable to me that they joined the MPAA
Starting point is 00:16:43 the same day that these nominations were announced. There are only seven studios in the MPAA. That's very significant. It's just fascinating getting both Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira nominations for Roma along with all of the other craft nominations is a huge deal. And it was so funny. I spent a lot of time with family last weekend. I was talking to them about movies and I had recommended Roma to a lot of those family members a few months ago. I think I saw the movie maybe in September, October. I was like, this is coming. It's going to be in your house. Get ready for December 14th.
Starting point is 00:17:15 And the only movie they wanted to talk to me about was Bird Box. And they were like, Bird Box is good. Unironically, I liked Bird Box. And they didn't know about memes. They weren't part of this culture that box and they didn't know about memes they weren't part of this culture that you and i are always talking about and the thing that was interesting to me about that was that is kind of the dual victory for netflix they're getting this prestige they're getting this conversation by the industry around them for all this time but simultaneously netflix
Starting point is 00:17:38 is just the place that makes all the movies there's a steven soderbergh movie coming out on netflix next week steven soderbergh made's Eleven like this is a huge like every week they're just putting something out yeah and they have completely swallowed the conversation and the fact that they got in here on this too I find fascinating three nominations for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs which is a movie I love but wow well I mean the Coen's helped a bit with that but to your point yes I you know it's funny in the jobs that we do, we talk a lot about changes are coming in the industry and Netflix is taking it all over. And I think, you know, even last year we would have a conversation about like, you know, and then a
Starting point is 00:18:14 couple of years we'll just like watch everything on Netflix and Netflix will just be the monopoly. And I think it was about a month ago. I was like, oh, it's here. It's now. They did it. Movies, TV, anything. If it's not on Netflix, it really doesn't matter. Alison Herman wrote a good piece about this as it relates to television. But it's just people have Netflix and they turn it on and they just watch what pops up. And that's it. The other thing my family wanted to talk about while I was home was Marie Kondo. Oh, God.
Starting point is 00:18:39 It's like Marie Kondo has been in the atmosphere for you and I for what, six, seven years? I mean, how long has there been? Like, when did that book first come out? It's been a long time. And now everybody's like, have you heard about Marie Kondo? It's ridiculous. It's fascinating. It's so, I'm very curious to see if Netflix continues to be as interested in this portion of the business because awards are very expensive. It's oftentimes more expensive to market and push an awards campaign than it is to actually make a movie. And they don't have box office, so they don't have the turnaround that you eventually get for something like Green Book, which lo and behold, last weekend actually made a little bit
Starting point is 00:19:12 of money because it got nominated for Oscars and it's going to continue to make some more money now. They don't have to worry about any of that stuff, but also money is money. And it'll be interesting to me if they try to be Warner Brothers or Paramount, or if this is just in an effort to grow and grow and grow, we're going to see. You know, if you want to know more about Netflix, a few months ago, Victor Luckerson and I worked on a Ringer PhD that explains how Netflix makes money. And inside of that, you get a little bit of a sense of why they're making the content decisions that they make, why things like the Oscars are important, why things like the rights to shows like The Office are important. So check that out on our YouTube page. I thought it was notable that Netflix and Amazon and Annapurna combined for
Starting point is 00:19:53 more nominations than Universal, Warner Brothers, Paramount, Sony, and 20th Century Fox combined. This is really a new day. The last time I really remember this conversation happening in earnest is when Miramax really rose up in the 90s and the Weinstein sort of took over the awards game. In some respects, maybe without some of the bullying tactics that we know about historically, Netflix and Amazon and Annapurna are doing it in the same
Starting point is 00:20:18 way. They're kind of outspending and outstrategizing a lot of these places. The only other place that really still knows how to do this, and I've been saying this for months, is Fox Searchlight, which got a lot of nominations. And Fox Searchlight is now owned by Disney. And this is probably the last time we will have a proper Fox Searchlight awards campaign season. And then once they're fully subsumed by the Disney machine, once the Fox merger happens, I'm kind of curious to see how much of this they get to do in the same way that they have, or if they move into a new strategy.
Starting point is 00:20:46 You know, Bob Iger has very notably said that he's not going to mess with the creative strategy of Fox First Light, but I don't know if that extends out to award season. And, you know, the struggles of something like Mary Poppins Returns illuminates that Disney doesn't always really care about awards in this way. Sure, though it was Oprah's friend, Bobby, who gave the green light for the Black Panther campaign. That's true. And they won on Sunday night. That's right, and maybe that pushed it to the sag. Couple of other things.
Starting point is 00:21:12 No Peter Farrelly for Best Director. I don't think that that can be understated. That was, I was really surprised, and I'm a big fan of Pavel Pavlikovsky, and we'll talk about that a little bit. But this means, is it it is this movie Argo where Ben Affleck was not nominated for best director but then the movie went on to win best picture I think that's plausible what did you make of
Starting point is 00:21:34 no Peter Farrelly well I took it as a good sign just because we need some of those in Oscar season especially surrounding Green Book and because frankly I just don't want to hear the guy talk again enough. Like, you know, regardless of how you feel about Green Book or the controversy around, not the controversy, the conversation around it and the way that people are responding to the conversation around it, which is fascinating. I don't think that you can say that Peter Farrelly has handled it very well in public, so I don't think that you can say that Peter Farrelly has handled it very
Starting point is 00:22:05 well in public, so I'm good. Thank you. Best of luck and hear from you never. So in that sense, I took it as a good sign. To your point, increasingly Best Picture and Best Director are separated. For years, they were lockstep. And in recent years, it's they've been split up. So I don't think that you can take it as a referendum on Green Book and its chances. I think that it's just more indicative of how differently people think about these two awards. And Best Director is about craft and technical wizardry. And, oh, we can see you directing or in the case of Spike Lee it's
Starting point is 00:22:47 about you it is a career recognition type of award and best picture is about what people want to say about a movies be Hollywood or see their opinions about movies in Hollywood in any given moment. I re-watched broadcast news recently and I've been reading a lot about Broadcast News, which is definitely one of my favorite movies of all time. And Broadcast News is actually like Green Book in this one specific way, which is that James L. Brooks was not nominated for Best Director,
Starting point is 00:23:15 but almost everybody else was nominated. It was Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Picture. And it's so interesting to me when that happens. I'm fascinated by the Director's Guild and why they make the choices they make because Peter Farrelly is nominated for a DGA, and we'll talk a little bit more about this soon, as is Bradley Cooper. Neither of them are here, which is just wild to me.
Starting point is 00:23:36 I know you guys were upset for Bradley. I was too. I think that that's actually strange because he, to me, really was, he did what a great director is supposed to do. He got great performances out of people. He had a vision for the movie. I think he chose his craftspeople, the people that he collaborated with so perfectly from the songwriters to the cinematographer, costume design, the way that movie looks and feels, that's really hard to do. I think that's one of the reasons why people get mad at us about how much we talk about A Star
Starting point is 00:24:03 Is Born on this show. But that's one of the reasons why I talk about it so much is it is both things. It is this big emotional feeling thing that we love that was fun to watch. But also it does do those artistic things that theoretically the Oscars is meant to reward. So it's fascinating that both of those guys are out. Never Look Away was nominated for a foreign film. It was also nominated for a foreign film at the Golden Globes. And no one's really seen this movie. It's Florian von Henkel Donnerschmark's new film. Yes.
Starting point is 00:24:31 Um, for those of you who don't know his name, he directed The Lives of Others, which won the best foreign film Oscar about eight or nine years ago. And, um, I haven't seen this movie. And the truth is, it's really hard to say. It's opening in America in about a week. And I'm going to go to a theater and see it. It's so fascinating, not only that that movie got nominated for a foreign film, but that Caleb Deschanel, who was a cinematographer on the film,
Starting point is 00:24:53 got nominated for Best Cinematography. Caleb Deschanel, of course, shot The Right Stuff and Being There. And he's an extremely successful, beloved cinematographer, also the father of Emily and Zooey Deschanel, the actresses. That was the biggest what the fuck of the whole awards nominations to me, maybe of the entire season. I didn't see anybody predict Kayla Deschanel.
Starting point is 00:25:15 And that felt to me like, here's either a branch of the Academy that is just like, I know that name. I like that guy. Like how many people really saw Never Look Away? Well, not that many people yet, but a lot of people saw The Lives of Others. Like, I write for The Lives of Others. Yeah, it's great.
Starting point is 00:25:30 It's amazing. And, you know, I do think, especially in foreign film, this has been a great year for the foreign film category. A lot of those movies have been in conversation. They have been easier to see because of streaming services. People really have been pushing them. But, again again that's like all of us film nerds on twitter um i think voters in that category are just sometimes kind of pointing and you can point to this because you know the lives of others is like extraordinary yeah i was sad for um a couple of movies burning first and foremost which i loved i saw birds of passage recently i thought that was
Starting point is 00:26:03 also wonderful but yeah that was a strange nomination. I look forward to kind of talking about Never Look Away. Sure, I look forward to seeing it. Yeah, I'm sure we'll get to it at some point on this show. Let's go to another part of Oscar's crisis, another aspect of Oscar's crisis, which the telecast really seems to be floundering, for lack of a better word.
Starting point is 00:26:23 I feel like they really don't know what they're doing. And we talked a lot about this when the Kevin Hart scenario was happening, but things have gotten worse. We learned last year that they would be cutting some categories from the telecast and giving out awards during the commercial break. That kind of slipped under the radar at the time, and there's been a lot more anxiety about this in recent weeks. I found it fascinating that the rumor is that cinematography will not be on the telecast, even though John Bailey, who is the president of the Academy, is a cinematographer. I just spent three minutes talking to you about Caleb Deschanel for no reason because no one's ever going to see that
Starting point is 00:26:56 award given out. No one's going to talk about it. There's even some concern and confusion about when we'll even find out who won those awards. Will, will they flash a chyron on the screen? How will they choose what doesn't get nominated, or excuse me, what doesn't get shown? It's all very confusing to me. At the risk of sounding like a haughty award season nerd, this just seems like a huge mistake. Like, this isn't what makes the show too long. Mark Bridges, last year when he won for Phantom Thread and then later came out with the jet ski at the end of the telecast, was a great moment. And Mark Bridges was fun year when he won for Phantom Threat and then later came out with the jet ski at the end of the telecast,
Starting point is 00:27:25 was a great moment. And Mark Bridges was fun. And he was wearing killer socks. And I don't understand the desire to do this. The thing that needs to be cut is the thing that you're always pointing to. Well, one of the things you're always pointing to, which is the sort of montage of it all. The sort of like, movies are important and let's spend an extra 12
Starting point is 00:27:41 minutes talking about all the great films in which a man wears hard bottom shoes or something. And we don't need that stuff. Sure, or we could just have one. One would be good, yeah. They have like four to five. It's, you know, every 45 minutes, it's another pre-produced segment,
Starting point is 00:27:55 which I get it because live television is hard. So you got to pad the, but you know, we don't need those. You're right. Give some awards and let people have speeches. One thing that would create a little bit of grease in those wheels would be having a host where you could have somebody. One thing that would create a little bit of grease in those wheels would be having a host where you could have somebody come out and just vamp for a little bit.
Starting point is 00:28:08 And then that would let everybody arrange what they need to do behind the scenes. They're not really doing that as far as I can tell. I mean, we're about three and four weeks away from the telecast. We got no host. We got no news about the Avengers assembling. We got no news about a Dark Horse candidate to come in at the last minute. That's true, though. I think at this point, making announcements has not served them well. Letting us know about it has certainly, I don't think that suddenly like common sense has taken
Starting point is 00:28:33 over over there and they're just like, well, we know what to do now and we will just strategically not tell anyone about it and present like a fully baked broadcast. I don't think that that's the case. But at the same time, like, why would they tell us that the Avengers are assembling? Because it'll just be a bunch of people bitching and then other people being like, oh, maybe I'll watch it. Maybe I won't. I don't really care. Yeah. I mean, it's so the thing that's notable about that is people tend to forget just how important the Oscars are in a number of different ways.
Starting point is 00:29:01 They're I'm writing about this right now. And the Oscars are not just an award show. They're also, they're like the Met Gala and also like the Nobel Peace Prize for movies. They're kind of everything. They're a referendum on the industry. They're an artistic achievement acknowledgement in their fashion show, and they generate a lot of money. Yeah, they're also a sales pitch, and they are also a television show of their own, right, that until recently has been extremely well-rated and one of the highest non-sports ratings on television throughout the year. Yes.
Starting point is 00:29:37 And so that's the problem, right? Because you can't have all three anymore. You can't actually have a show. You can't have a super well-rated live show. I'm sorry. Just that's how television works now, because everyone is on Netflix watching Bird Box and You like we just discussed. It's true.
Starting point is 00:29:50 And you certainly can't have a well-rated show that is also an advertisement that is also three hours of tribute to the finer points of cinema. It just things have changed. And it used to be that you had a captive audience for three hours, no matter what, because it was the Oscars and it was a big deal and you could do whatever you wanted. And we're not there anymore. So I understand why they're floundering because they're trying to decide between three different identities. Yeah. We're talking about this in the context of crisis and that is like sharp for the headline at the top of the show. But just out of curiosity, do you know how much money the broadcast of the show and the red carpet coverage generates for ABC?
Starting point is 00:30:32 No. You want to guess? 800 million. No, that's way too much. Well, I don't know. Sorry, always guess high. Always ask for more, people. No, that's not how The Price is Right is played.
Starting point is 00:30:41 You've lost this round. On an annual basis, guess. Well, I already guessed, didn't you? Like, a good... $800 million? I don't know. Let's ask for more. Ask for more in your lives, okay?
Starting point is 00:30:54 The answer is $128 million on an annual basis. That's a lot of money for a network. It is. It's not just $800 million. 26.5 million people watched the Oscars last year, and people were like, holy shit, this is a disaster. 26.5 million people is so manyars last year and people were like, holy shit, this is a disaster. 26.5 million people
Starting point is 00:31:05 is so many people for a television show. It is an unbelievable amount of people. The only show that isn't football that got even close to that last year was fucking Roseanne. So you still can't underestimate how important this is. Now, we're all watching you and Marie Kondo,
Starting point is 00:31:22 but 26.5 million people in a significant down year, which not to, I don't know, shine my laurels or anything, but I knew was going to happen because of the Shape of Water and Three Billboards being the movies. And I wrote about it last summer because it just seemed so obvious to me
Starting point is 00:31:36 that nobody was going to watch this telecast. More people will tune in this year. I feel confident about that. Black Panther is there and it's a huge hit. People will tune into the show. 26.5 million people was still an enormous amount of people. This is still an enormous amount of money. They can't just be messing around with the telecast like this. It seems like they don't know what they're doing. And it's notably the first year of a new administration. And it feels
Starting point is 00:31:58 like it. It feels like they don't have their bearings at the moment. And it's just so interesting to me. The other thing, the other choice that they've made, which we learned about in the last couple of weeks is they have reduced the number of musical performances.. And it's just so interesting to me. The other thing, the other choice that they've made, which we learned about in the last couple of weeks is they have reduced the number of musical performances. I believe it's going to be two. That's the current plan. Yes. Okay. So my guess for the two theoretically would be Shallow. Yes. Which of course we saw a sneak preview of in Vegas when Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga performed,
Starting point is 00:32:20 which I candidly did not think was as charming as everybody else did. I thought it was actually a little weird. Yeah. It's, they were performing as Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga and not as Jackson Maine and Ali. And you can really see the distinction between the two, which to my mind, once again, communicates what an achievement A Star is Born is because those are two people who are not always comfortable in real life. That's so well put.
Starting point is 00:32:42 Who don't always have chemistry with literally any other human being and they did in the movie and uh not as much in the thing i like that he's trying though i like that he's like i didn't get the like i'm not getting the respect i deserve and so i'm just gonna show up in vegas i agree it felt calculated but also cool i loved that he did it um i i think that we actually could have had a great campaign of Bradley and Gaga doing surprising things that would have been so exciting. Well, I think part of the reason we didn't is what you and I just commented on, which was that it felt as calculated as it did cool and possibly slightly more.
Starting point is 00:33:18 The thing is, is all of this stuff is so calculated. Who cares? Lean into it. You know, Gary Oldman just leaned the hell into it, even though it probably makes Gary Oldman skin crawl to like shake the hands of some anonymous foreign press associate. But it worked out for him. I agree with you. But charm and comfort and connecting with people is a skill. It's a skill in Oscar campaigning and in all walks of life, by the way. And it's some people are better at it than others. Some people are better interviews. Some people are better, more spontaneous, more like, quote, authentic, which they're not authentic at all. They just seem that way. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:46 And I think in some ways, Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga were wise to not overexpose themselves. You know, it's like the Lady Gaga, 100 people in a room and only one of them believes in you. Within a week, everyone was just mocking her and there were memes about it on the Internet because that's not her forte. She has many strengths. This isn't one of them. Yeah, I think you're right. The other movie, excuse me, the other song that I think will be performed here is All the Stars, Kendrick Lamar and SZA's song for Black Panther. Yes.
Starting point is 00:34:15 Which is a good song. And I think in any other year that doesn't have a star is born would probably be the front runner. It's a very kind of Eminem eight mile situation where it's just like this is a big song that a lot of people like that has a high Spotify number that is recognizable but kind of not offensive to people who don't like rap. You know?
Starting point is 00:34:32 So it's interesting to me there have been people who have suggested that this could upset Shallow and that there could be like an offer coming for A Star Is Born which would be
Starting point is 00:34:40 a tough night. Let's just brace ourselves for that narrative. Let's get that piece in motion right now. Okay. You think that two musical performances is not a bad idea, though. So you want to go even further?
Starting point is 00:34:52 Sure. Can I give you my hottest take? Of course. I think that we should abolish the best song Oscar. Wow. Here's why. Because Shallow is really the exception in that it is a song written for the movie and is a part of the narrative arc in the movie and as part of a performance. It's actually contributing to a film.
Starting point is 00:35:10 But for the most part, with the exception of a Bond credit song, which is a film tradition and that's kind of worked into the movie, these songs aren't usually part of the film. They are a way to get pop stars and big names and recognizable people onto the film and to get your film on Spotify and to get attention and possibly to have a famous person performing in relation to your film at the Oscars. And that's great. And I like everything that we just said, but that's not about making a movie and actually writing a pop song that has nothing to do with a movie is a different skill set. It's a different genre. We have a different awards show for writing songs. And I don't know. I just, we don't really need it. And maybe it would get rid of some of these headaches. Hard to disagree. Okay, that's fine. Music is endemic to filmmaking. I think it totally totally is i'm not saying abolish best score i'm saying abolish best like celine dion wailing over the credits of titanic which by the
Starting point is 00:36:15 way respect to celine dion i read the book too i'm just saying that's not about filmmaking and you know what is definitely not about filmmaking? Pop stars freaking performing on stage. That has nothing to do with whether this song fit into the film or was good or anything. Who cares? It has the Grammys on our February 10th. Go watch that. What if the category was limited strictly to songs that were performed in the film? So in the case of A Star Is Born or musicals?
Starting point is 00:36:43 Yes. Like I said, Shallow is the film. So in the case of a Star is Born or musicals. Yes. Like I said, Shallow is the exception and like Shallow deserves an award because it is part of the quote craft of filmmaking. But I mean, two of the other nominees in the category this year, notably The Place Where Lost Things Go and Mary Poppins Returns. And also one of my favorite nominations, When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings and the Ballad of Buster Scruggs, are in the film. They appear in the film. To me, not letting Tim Blake Nelson or David Rawlings and Gillian Welch, who wrote that song, perform at the Oscars is annoying.
Starting point is 00:37:15 Because it actually would have been fun to see an actor do a weird song about a cowboy dying and ascending to heaven. I agree with that. And I think only two out of five is unfair. What they should actually do is a medley. Just do it all in like five minutes and, you know, Shallow closes it and everybody gets to stand on stage with Lady Gaga, which is exciting for everyone. My favorite conspiracy theory about this decision was that both of the nominees that are likely to perform appear on Interscope Records and that somehow there's been some sort of payola situation where that record label's been favored.
Starting point is 00:37:47 You know, I mentioned the ratings and how we'll examine it. I do think that the one way this breaks really weird in terms of the long-term projection about what the Oscars is and can be is if Roma wins, which is not necessarily fair to Roma the film, but when it wins and it becomes the film that a lot of people haven't seen and there
Starting point is 00:38:03 becomes a lot of hand-wringing and complaining about what the Oscars really is and should be, that could get a little bit ugly. It does have 10 nominations along with the favorite, and that is the fewest leading number for a film since Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel
Starting point is 00:38:19 were nominated for nine in 2015. Both of those movies went on to win four. If I had to guess, Roma will win about four. I don't think that The Favorite will win four. We'll see. I think I have it down for two right now. It seems like screenplay and out.
Starting point is 00:38:36 It seems like a classic we really liked you, and so we'll give you a screenplay and then go off your merry way. Yeah, we'll see. It may have a chance in one of the craft categories as well. I'm genuinely concerned that this is going to be a shit show. And I don't know why I care so much that it's going to be a shit show. Maybe that'll be great.
Starting point is 00:38:52 Maybe if it's a complete fiasco, it'll be fun. But I found myself thinking about it this week and just being like, what are they doing? I think it's certainly going to be a fiasco. But, you know, and I say this with a lot of respect and appreciation for black panther which should be nominated and it would be great if it wins but if black panther wins it's not like it fixes everything like they you know i the ratings are going to be the ratings i'm i don't know whether all the black panther fans especially like your 15 year old sister is going to turn into the Oscars because Black
Starting point is 00:39:25 Panther might win. Do they care? I'm not convinced. I don't know. Maybe we should have her on the show and ask her. That would be great. Or you could text her right now. I could text her right now. I'll get back to you about whether or not she cares about the Oscars. I suspect she does not. And I think your point is smart. There has been something generational that is being lost too. The kind of lack of usefulness of this stuff. We tend to romanticize a time when like Kramer versus Kramer could win and that movie was a hit.
Starting point is 00:39:47 Right. It was also meaningful to people and they were tuning in because they felt a connection to the movie. Theoretically, Black Panther should be able to do that.
Starting point is 00:39:53 I mean, Black Klansman should be able to do that. Honestly, Green Book is doing that. In some ways, there is a kind of person that we may not agree with
Starting point is 00:40:00 that is like, Green Book is the kind of movie that solves problems in this country. You know what? Let's put our anxiety aside for one more week let's go to stock up stock down okay if it goes bust you can make 10 to 1 even 20 to 1 return and it's already slowly going bust we've kind of nibbled around the edges of r and Roma being the most nominated film and the film that feels like a fait accompli to me at this point. Why do you think it's the overwhelming favorite? You and Chris talked about kind of the betting odds.
Starting point is 00:40:34 What do you think is driving that conversation? Well, the literal reason is just because it tied for the most nominations and it was in Best Picture and Best Director. And I think both the acting and supporting actress nominations were not totally expected. And I'm very glad that both of those actresses are being recognized. But both those categories suggest that it's really on people's minds and that people were just kind of clicking all the boxes. And to me, that just suggests a vested interest in it that probably means, you know,
Starting point is 00:41:10 when it comes time for Best Picture, it's in the top three for most people. I think also, you know, we can argue and we'll continue to argue about Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book and A Star is Born, though. Like, please don't at me. Stop atting me. Just if you don't at me stop adding me just if you don't like it that's fine live your life you've just made a grave error because they will they
Starting point is 00:41:30 will be adding you that's fine i don't block you by the way it's like that's great i don't want to hear about it but we can argue about those things and i think people will but roma is just inarguable to enough people that voting wise i, I think it'll shake out. One thing that kicked up earlier this week is a piece that ran on Deadline.com about, you know, just the sort of state of affairs of the Oscar voting. And there was a bit about Roma in there and what would be the sort of quote-unquote virtue signaling of voting for Roma. And, you know, especially in a time where there's a lot of anxiety around the border wall and this current presidential administration, it was a fairly conservative reading of the state of play in the Oscars. And a lot of people got frustrated with that who follow this stuff closely. It's not unusual for Deadline to come through with a
Starting point is 00:42:19 piece like this. This kind of happens every year. I don't think that people would vote for Roma to signal support with Mexicans or Mexican-American immigrants or anybody who is opposed to Donald Trump. Maybe that's naive of me. I do think that people watching Roma are largely responding to a very personal but also technically excellent filmmaking. You know, I guess we tend to just project these themes onto movies like Green Book and movies like Bohemian Rhapsody. And so it's, of course, fair and understandable that this will come from all directions. You know, I have been surprised by the kind of lack of interrogation of Black Klansman in some ways, which is a movie I like, but I think actually has some kind of fascinating flaws that are actually fun to discuss.
Starting point is 00:43:12 That deadline piece to me did signal that there is a strong feeling around that the Roma push is really real for all the reasons that you stated and others. I thought that the Netflix thing would hold them back. As I said earlier in the show, I now don't Netflix thing would hold them back. As I said earlier in the show, I now don't think it will hold them back. You know,
Starting point is 00:43:29 I think also there's just evidently a huge amount of support for Cuaron. And I suspect Cuaron at the DGAs this weekend will win. And when he does, we'll be on the fast track to him winning best director again, which would give him a second win. You know, it's weird because it feels a little bit like um moonlight winning which is that it would be nice because it's a great film made by a great filmmaker but it will be used as
Starting point is 00:43:53 a cudgel by people who want to say that the oscars don't matter anymore do you think that that is fair i mean yes i think and that is a fair reading because any manner of terrible things can and will be said after, you know. That's true. That's the lesson of this whole season. And it's the lesson of the Internet and not even the Internet, because I think, you know, what I wanted to say is that the deadline piece and all these concerns about virtue signaling and and also the Netflix of it all, in a lot of ways, just seems to me like a generational divide. And I just think that there are a lot of older voters who are just feel under siege. And in many ways, they are because the Academy is making a lot of changes to kick them out. And because there are a lot of different types of films and different purveyors of films and the instance of Netflix kind of changing the way that we
Starting point is 00:44:46 watch movies and the way that movies make money. Like we have spent the whole podcast talking about this. And I think that I don't think that younger voters and people who are voting for Roma think about it in the same way that the older voters do. And I think that this is kind of an older generation reading of younger people trying to understand a younger generation and also possibly trying then to shore up support for an older way of thinking. Just my take. I agree with you. This is an elegant segue to the big race.
Starting point is 00:45:21 Well, mama, look at me now i'm a star we're gonna talk about best director you know the thing across my mind when i was thinking about roman is 10 nominations is when alfonso cuaron wins best director does that certify him as kind of best living filmmaker it's an abstract idea there's no way to confirm that but it certainly feels like that's how a lot of people do feel. I rewatched Children of Men recently and I was pretty blown away. That's not a cool original opinion, but I was like, whoa, this is really on another level in terms of the kinds of, I've seen so many movies in the last five years and that was significantly elevated over that. I think it's a much bigger achievement than Gravity and Roma in a lot of ways, but that's neither here nor there.
Starting point is 00:46:06 That, as you said before, the Oscars is always kind of waiting 10 years too long. Do you have a sense that Cuaron has entered this sort of stratosphere that is untouchable? I think it's certainly one of. The interesting thing is that best director rewards one type of director usually, or that's not true at all, but it's one way of thinking about directing. And I think Cuaron is certainly one of the greatest, but when we talk about directors and careers writ large,
Starting point is 00:46:36 we do tend to think a little bit more about the films that stay with us and influence and things that the best director race doesn't always take into account because it is pretty film-focused and it tends to be more film-focused than other categories and tends to be a bit more technical and rewarding a certain aspect of directing. So that's not to diminish Cuaron at all, who I think is certainly one of the greatest filmmakers of all time.
Starting point is 00:47:04 Is he like the GOAT? I don't know. This isn't a LeBron, who I think is certainly one of the greatest filmmakers of all time. Is he like the goat? I don't know. This isn't a LeBron situation. I think we just talk about it differently. Yeah, that's well said. It's funny. I have this inherent desire as somebody who spends a lot of time making a website and watching sports to certify things in these ways. And one of the reasons that the Oscars is so fun is because there's a horse race and there is a lot of tracking of who's ahead
Starting point is 00:47:25 and who's behind and who needs to pick things up and who needs to pump their stats up. Cuaron exists a little bit outside the context of that because
Starting point is 00:47:33 he makes very, very personal films. Even when he's making Harry Potter movies, they are like so clearly about his childhood. It's like, it's almost self-parody
Starting point is 00:47:43 in a way. Like, Ito Mama Tambien is like almost, and people have noted the kind of mirror reflections in Ito Mama Tambien and in Roma
Starting point is 00:47:51 that are kind of fascinating and like beautiful, but also like a little on the nose. And I have this urge to say like, well, he's,
Starting point is 00:47:59 you know, he's the best right now and I would see anything that he does, but I don't know. There's like a Quentin Tarantino movie coming out in seven months and I'm incredibly psyched for that. You know but I don't know. There's like a Quentin Tarantino movie coming out in seven months and I'm
Starting point is 00:48:05 incredibly psyched for that. You know, I can't wait for the next thing that David Fincher does. There's a handful of people, as you know, Paul Thomas Anderson is my Lord and savior. Where's Catherine Bigelow? When's she going to make another movie?
Starting point is 00:48:16 You know, there's a handful of people who are like, these are like the five or seven people that are the most important people. You know, if he does win, he would join 20 other directors with at least two wins, which I think is interesting. I was surprised to learn that it was 20. That's a lot of people who have won twice. Yes. I don't think that there have been that many actors that have won twice.
Starting point is 00:48:34 I could be wrong about that. Well, it's a more specialized field, you know. It's a lot of men. Well, I mean, that's what I was going to say fewer people are allowed to direct movies and some of that is numbers and some of that is a you know a hundred years of a deeply exclusionary system which has not been changed in this year uh you know i have given up talking about how there are no women nominated it was just never in the cards you know at some point you have to let women direct movies in order to have them be nominated. And also, you have to see them and take them seriously. I don't know. Are we there yet? We'll talk about it next week on the Wife podcast. Can't wait for that. It's interesting that John Ford is the all-time leader in this category with
Starting point is 00:49:18 four wins because there are a lot of people who think that John Ford is not only not a great filmmaker, but a racist and a bad person. Spike Lee has talked about this. Quentin Tarantino, of all people, has talked about his feeling that John Ford is a racist filmmaker. At the time, it was obvious that John Ford was considered a master, kind of in the realm of Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, somebody at the absolute pinnacle of the industry and the absolute pinnacle of the art form. And over time, I think there are still John Ford films, The Searchers and She Wore a Yellow Ribbon and Stagecoach that, you know, persist and are going to live forever and have a kind of majesty to them. But also the ideas in them have not held up as well or have not held up at all. And, you know, it's always
Starting point is 00:50:06 fascinating to me when somebody enters the pantheon, for lack of a better word, how their films will be remembered and how Cuaron's will be. Cuaron has one of the most diverse, even though there's thematic similarities, diverse filmographies of any director ever, like Gravity, Children of Men, The Little Princess, Great Expectations. I mean, he really has made a lot of different kinds of movies, all with the kind of same core themes of humanism. And I don't know, I'm really curious to see how this shakes out. And I'm always interested to hear what he's working on because he has a great brain. That's something that my wife and I always talk about,
Starting point is 00:50:42 like people who have a great brain. So, you know, we'll keep that in mind as we keep watching the show. The other thing that happened in the Best Director category was Pavel Pavlikovsky was nominated for Best Director for Cold War. He was a guest on this show. He also made Ida, which won Best Foreign Film,
Starting point is 00:50:58 I think in 2014, beautiful film. You know, you were talking about kind of what this category rewards and why. And he is notably an older white guy. But also there are people in the DGA that think he is just a stone cold master, that he is like hit on something that is utterly unique and beautiful. Were you surprised to see his nomination? Surprised, yes.
Starting point is 00:51:22 But just because it wasn't expected. It wasn't like, oh, what the hell? Why is this person in this category? And I think, you know, reflecting on Cold War, it's obviously a masterpiece of form and visuals. And it is kind of a movie that I've thought about, kind of like, huh, how was I supposed to feel about that and how the choices and the actual filmmaking affected the result and manipulated my experience? And that's directing. So I agree with it. And that is something that only the director can do. So, you know, I get it.
Starting point is 00:51:57 And I think in terms of directors want to value their own craft, of course, you know, you want to reward the thing that makes you important as well. Truly. And I get that. I think that that's what this nomination is to me, but he deserves it. Yeah, Farrelly and Cooper getting bumped, which we mentioned earlier, in favor of Pavel Pavlikovsky and Adam McKay and Yorgos Lanthimos, none of which were guaranteed, is very interesting to me. It's notable to me that there's only one white American guy in this whole group, even though there are no women. That's pretty uncommon in this category. You know, it really just feels like Cuaron and Spike to me.
Starting point is 00:52:39 And maybe there will be a Spike moment. In some ways, I hope there will be. I think there's been a lot of great writing about Spike Lee in the last few months. And he has really been on the campaign trail in a way that he never has before. And he seems to be kind of bending to this process in a way that surprises me. Because he has always had such a tense relationship to not just the Academy, but to Hollywood. And, you know, that, that sin of do the right thing and, and, um, driving Miss Daisy is just such a profound and obvious metaphor. You know, our former colleague, uh, Cam Collins wrote about this for Vanity Fair. Uh, I would
Starting point is 00:53:20 like to see a spike win, but I also hate when people win for the thing that isn't. I hate the departed win for Scorsese so much. It really would be that. Yes, but, you know, Glenn Close. Glenn Close is the wife. It's both very much in the air this year, and it is how these things happen. And to me, an imperfect Spike win is better than no Spike win at all. You're right. Let's look ahead.
Starting point is 00:53:44 We've been talking best director. The DGAs are on February 2nd. We'll come right in after that and we'll chat about it. Probably right. 9 p.m. Immediately. Yeah. Conclusion of the DGAs on Saturday night.
Starting point is 00:53:54 And then the BAFTAs are on February 10th. And then after that, Oscar voting opens on February 12th. And that's kind of the season. That's it. And then people vote? For a week and then... They count the votes pretty quickly. I mean, you know,
Starting point is 00:54:10 I understand that. I don't know. I think they have machines, right? Are these hand counted? Sure, but I think maybe we could double check the system after, you know, Moonlight La La Land. Maybe we should report on that. Yeah, let's take a little more time. I mean, I understand it's just, it's all digital now and they rank it,
Starting point is 00:54:25 but I was like, we don't want to double check. We don't want to build in a little time. We don't want a hanging Chad situation, you know? We don't want a hanging Green Book here. Just some observation. As always, I really wish they would just show us the results. Just show us the results. You want to get intrigue on this show?
Starting point is 00:54:42 When they announce the winners, put a graphic on the screen that shows the vote count for every film. The film's already nominated. It's already been honored. There's no shame in Black Panther getting 69 votes while the favorite gets 78. Like, fine. That shows us a lot about the Academy. That helps us understand what is and is not working here.
Starting point is 00:55:03 I'm going to say this like five more times before we get to the ceremony. I completely agree with you and it's literally never going to happen. They need to blow, well, they don't need to blow it up, but they need to blow something up. You know, to your point earlier about preferential balloting, soon on this show, I think we'll talk a little bit more in depth, perhaps not as in depth as the wife, but in depth about really what preferential balloting actually is and how it
Starting point is 00:55:25 works. And we have tried to make it clear in the past. It is a confusing system. This certainly does feel like a year in which it will really matter because they won't show us the goddamn votes. We won't actually know, but it's good to at least understand how it works and how it could affect the outcome of this race.
Starting point is 00:55:40 You know, in the future on the show too, hopefully over the course of the next three or four weeks, I'm going to talk to a handful of nominees from various films, some craftspeople, perhaps some actors. Uh, maybe we'll tack those onto some of these conversations that you and I are having. Is there anybody you really want me to talk to Amanda? You know, I would love for you to do a three-part Olivia Coleman, Amy Adams, and Rachel Weisz.
Starting point is 00:56:00 Just put them all together and then you don't really talk. Can we have video on that? Also you trying to figure out how to respond. It would bring me great joy. I would be pleased to keep my mouth shut in that scenario. What else do we have to say? Sundance happened. It doesn't seem like there was a Call Me By Your Name or a Get Out at Sundance this year.
Starting point is 00:56:18 I heard some nice things about the report. Scott Z. Burns' film about black sites and the CIA. Adam Driver. Adam Driver and Annette Bening as Dianne Feinstein, one of our senators. Annette Bening, I wouldn't be shocked if she was back here at the Oscars. She's now been passed over like four times for an Oscar. She needs to have her wife. Will the report be the wife?
Starting point is 00:56:40 It certainly seems like it. I mean, it's more her Iron Lady, but yes, it seems like, you know, people like these roles. They do. We'll talk a lot more about the Sundance films over the course of the next year, but until next week, Amanda, when we talk more about directors, I guess, and the form of artistry that you love. Yes, and also the wife. Okay. See you then.

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