The Big Picture - Best Picture Power Rankings and a Deeply Weird Best Actress Investigation

Episode Date: February 7, 2023

With less than five weeks until the Academy Awards, Joanna Robinson joins Sean and Amanda to dive deep into the Andrea Riseborough nomination controversy (1:00), sort an unpredictable pair of Best Actor and Best Actress races, and power rank the Best Picture contenders one last time until the final predictions (54:00). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Guest: Joanna Robinson Producers: Bobby Wagner and Kaya McMullen Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When you're lost in the darkness, look for the pod. Specifically, the Prestige TV podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network, where we're breaking down every new episode of HBO's The Last of Us. On Sunday nights, grab your battery and join Van Lathan and Charles Holmes for an instant reaction to the latest episode. Then head back to the QZ on Tuesdays for a deep dive with Joanna Robinson and Mallory Rubin. From character arcs to video game adaptation choices, story themes to needle drops, we'll parse

every inch of this Cordyceps-coded universe. Watch out for mouth tendrils and follow along on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Get groceries delivered across the GTA from Real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. I'm Sean Fennessey. I'm Amanda Davins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about acting!

With less than five weeks until the Academy Awards, we're power-ranking the Best Picture contenders one last time until our final predictions. We're also digging into the best actor and actress races, which have seen some dramatic controversies and heated competition in recent weeks, making them two of the most unpredictable major acting categories in years. Joining us to break it all down once again, the great Joanna Robinson. Hi, Jo. Oh, hi.

Welcome back. I'm so pleased to be here for a scandal, a real scandal. We have talked intermittently about the Andrea Risborough affair, and she is nominated for Best Actress. And this has been quite a journey. We only really touched on it about two weeks ago, Amanda, and lo and behold, she's at the center of all Oscar conversation, it feels like. It's been quite a time.

I wrote an entire recap of all of the events. Do you think that the public at large understands what's going on or cares about this story? I think most listeners of this podcast have since sought out information, but I have had people in my own life, especially like when the Oscar nominations were announced, I had people just reach out and be like, so what is to Leslie? And I was like, well, I'm glad you asked. So perhaps we should do a quick recap just at the Academy Awards this year. So on January 24th, the Oscar noms were announced. And by far the biggest surprise of that morning was the nomination of Andrea Risborough for her performance in To Leslie, which is a very small indie

that was released in October. It premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival. Got solid reviews, strong recommendations for her work. She's one of the more respected actresses in Hollywood, but was not really on any pundits radar until about two to three weeks before the nominations dropped because a campaign was engineered in part by the wife of Michael Morris, who is the writer, director behind the film, and a man named Jason Weinberg, who is a manager and presumably Andrea

Reisborough to some extent herself. And this group of people had extraordinary reach in Hollywood. And they touched Edward Norton, they touched Gwyneth Paltrow, they touched Kate Winslet, they even touched Cate Blanchett, who while receiving her Critics' Choice Award, shouted out the work of Andrea Rysborough, who was not nominated, I don't believe, for a Critics' Choice Award. So all of these people started publicly sharing their appreciation for Ryesboro's work. Lo and behold, she got nominated. The scheme worked, the grassroots campaign worked, the lobbying worked. So over that time, there was a suggestion that some of that quote-unquote lobbying was untoward, was illegal in the parlance of Academy rules.

Frances Fisher in particular, the actress and Academy member, was urging people to vote for Andrea Risborough, or urging actors, because there was this understanding that Daniel Deadweiler and Viola Davis had locked nominations in addition to Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, who are the frontrunners for Best Actress. Come Oscar Day, Viola Davis, Daniel Deadweiler, not nominated. Michelle Williams actually was nominated, as was Ana de Armas, as was Andrea Risborough. So some people were surprised by the news. Some people were outraged.

Chinonye Tukwu, in particular, the director of Till, came out with some very strong words about the kind of clubbiness and clickiness of hollywood and also the you know prevailing oscar so white narrative and so the academy responded fairly quickly with an investigation i'm fascinated by the idea of the academy of motion picture arts and sciences pursuing an investigation but they did investigate they did discover that there was some, I want to say illegal. Illegal is not the right word. Some rule breaking going on here.

But, and yet, Andrew Riceboro's nomination was not rescinded and there will be individual and follow-up investigations into the individuals who participated in this quote-unquote grassroots campaign. So, okay, where are we now? That was good.

I was thinking as you were, that was a great recap. That was like clear and straightforward. And the like professional version as opposed to the drunk history version that you and I did at like 7.45 a.m. on Oscar nominations morning. Well, as far as I can tell, the two like broken rules seem to be, number one, if Frances Fisher could be proven to be officially affiliated with the campaign,

the fact that she named other nominees in her Instagram post is the rule breaking sort of situation. But as far as I know, for instance, Fisher is not officially affiliated. This is a sort of the whole idea behind this quote unquote grassroots campaign is like, let's just call our friends. And if our friends happen to be Gwyneth Paltrow, great. Which is how all campaigns are run in Hollywood, actually. And then number two is that Mary McCormick hosted a party, a word of mouth party, without having a screening attached to it. And according to the

2016 rule, you know, based a lot on like a lot of wrongdoing from the likes of Harvey Weinstein or Peggy Siegel or all these other award season, you know, practitioners of malfeasance were, you cannot have an event without a screening attached to it. And they had an event, a soiree, without a screening attached to it. And that is a problem. But I think the bigger conversation to be had here is that this is actually kind of business as usual. It's just, they happened to get caught. And I think it's good that they got caught in that we can have a conversation about it. But I don't know that,

I've read some accountings of this where it's like, and how dare Mary McCormick do this? And I was like, do what everyone has done always? I'm not saying it's good to have done it, but it's nothing new at all. And in fact, these kind of crony insider Hollywood events and campaigns are something I'm really try to like determine who's going to win the short film category, oftentimes you want to look for like who has the most connected producer

attached to one of these films. And in fact, Mary McCormick's brother, Will McCormick won the Oscar for best short film, you know, just a few years ago, he was a co-producer with Rashida Jones. But I was just like, I feel like Mary McCormick did exactly this, probably something like this the year her brother was nominated. And he got an Oscar. So she's like, once more with feeling, let's do it again. But it was the perfect storm for it to – and a lot of it, I think, has to do with timing. I just wanted to ask you guys about this.

If they had started this campaign earlier, how is this different from a Renee Zellweger and Judy or, you know, or even Glenn Close and The Wife? You know, films that like nobody saw, but there was this sort of connected campaign for the actors. Do you know what I mean? I mean, I can tell you what I think the difference is. This is an even smaller movie than those movies and an even more independent film. It doesn't have like a Sony Pictures pictures classics attached to it right and sony pictures classics is a seasoned practitioner of this kind of campaigning and would not elide the kind of phony baloney rules that were elided here and it just felt like there was a a light amount of messiness and also a very quick and kind of public assemblage of loud voices supporting Andrew Riceboro in a very conspicuous way.

And you put those two things together. You put some modest rule breaking. You put the fact that the two women who suffered because of this campaign who were black actresses. And then you also note the fact that all of these very famous people, you know, Howard Stern, who of course starred with Mary McCormick in private parts, was on his show every day talking about 2 Leslie, which no one had seen. So you put all of those things together into this stew, and you get this very modern example of, you know,

I guess like the back patty cronyism that pervades in Hollywood. But the truth is, is like, generally speaking, I completely agree with Joanna. This is very common, more or less, as to what happens in every campaign. It just wasn't as tidy as most campaigns are. Yeah. Joanna, everything that you pointed out about kind of the nitty gritty-esque-ness of this, and this is like, you know, maybe how we'll get them on tax evasion. It is a little bit like actual real life political campaign finance rules, which is, you know, there are a bunch of, there are so many different tiny regulations and things

written that people can kind of get caught on. But at the end of the day, none of it is like stopping the Koch brothers from, you know, funding millions of funneling millions of dollars wherever they want and buying campaigns. So they just kind of did a little bit of a bad job, you know, and it was a little bit messy and also a little bit silly. And I want to come back to the silliness of it because I think that is the other half of it that's very essential and why this became like a meme because that's sort of the thing when it's Renee Zellweger doing Judy with or Glenn Close doing the way for we do Oscar season. So you're you're totally right. But this was just also absurd because of how it happened, it happened the way that they the way that they

did it yeah um you know sean learned about the film to leslie from edward norton's twitter account that's true and i learned about the film and i swear to god i learned about the film to leslie from gwyneth paltrow's instagram account because she hosted a screening and didn't even bother to hire a professional photographer by the way those were some blurry ass photos of her and Demi Moore. And I was like, what is this? And then I went on with my day and then I looked at, you know, whatever else she was shilling. And so that's the other part of it is that some of it was so blatant that people, that it kind of worked because of its stupidity. Yeah.

Does that make any sense? Yeah, no, it's clumsy and it was last minute. My question is, like, if they had been doing this, like, as a slower boil, like, since South By, let's say, would this just have been one of those things where we're like, oh, well, yeah, we've been hearing about Andrea Risborough and to Leslie for months now. So, of course. It's possible, but there is a distinction there between the two examples that we're using as comparison points. Renee Zellweger and Glenn Close are multi-time nominees and are movie stars that have opened films for years and years. Andrea Riceboro is widely respected within the community, but I think to the public at large is more or less unknown. I mean, she has appeared in some mainstream films

and is very respected, but this feels, which is not to say that Daniela Deadweiler is some massive movie star, but Viola Davis is. And so when you push out someone like that

and replace them with someone who I think to the public at large is more or less anonymous, it feels like there's some dirty pool going on somehow that all the cool kids got together and they decided that their cool friend deserves that like all the cool kids got together and they decided that their cool friend deserves to be at the cool party. And I think that that is what

some of the reaction has been eliciting in people. I think that does underrate the fact that clubbiness is kind of like the very nature of the Academy Awards. You know, it is a small group of people. I do think there is also something about it being entirely on social media that feels unmediated. And it's there in the name. And social. And is just literally, okay, well, this person knows Gwyneth Paltrow because of XYZ, so they called her up. And it lays bare what we imagine when we think of the clubbiness of Hollywood as opposed to—and there are no kind of mysterious organizations or rules bodies or anything else in the way. It's just like, oh, a bunch of rich people kind of came up with some silly language and posted it on Instagram and Twitter for a while. I think we all, I think we all are actually on the same page. And I think we all agree that like this,

this, this is just a much more visible version of something we know has been happening since the dawn of time. Yes. And, and maybe they thought it was since, Oh, the awards campaigning has been changing so much over the years,

especially with the expansion of like who is in the academy etc they're like well let's see what a social media campaign can and should do for us but perhaps if they had kept this behind closed doors the way things always are i'm not saying this is a good outcome at all um i'm really upset on behalf of daniel deadweiler who i think is an incredible talent. And like, you know, Viola Davis has an Oscar. I'm like less worried, but like Danielle Deadweiler, this is like a really good chance to boost her profile. But one could say the same about Andrea Risborough, who is like an incredible actress who I am a little bit worried is going

to always be tainted with a scandal because for exactly the reason you mentioned, Sean, she's not a household name. And she's so good. And one thing she's so good at is being chameleonic, like where you can barely recognize her role to role. So she's had a hard time establishing herself, like her own persona outside of these roles that she disappears into. And so the fact that this is the thing most closely identified with her real name as opposed to a character that she's played is so unfortunate, especially since it seems like given the investigation, it seems like she was not the one actively doing this in any way. So I am like my order of outrage goes like most outrage on

behalf of Daniel Deadweiler and then outrage that Ana de Armas got nominated for, like, one of the worst movies that came out last year. Agreed. You and I are agreed. Like, why is that not more of a conversation? I mean, I understand that Ana de Armas had to suffer through the making of that film. And I like her as a person. And it seems like it was a completely miserable and traumatizing experience. So I guess if we're rewarding people for that, but yeah, I'm with you.

Okay, keep going on your list. And then I'm sad that this is forever going to sort of linger around Andrea Rice. Well, okay, let's follow that line of thought then because one, broadly speaking, I'm a big fan of Andrea Rice Burroughs. I actually seek out her films and Two Leslie got by me.

And I honestly don't know how. That is on me entirely. But in general, I think certainly the performance in Two Leslie has a lot of the hallmarks that we see in a lot of Academy Award nominated performances. It's a person struggling with addiction. It's a person who has a big arc in their life on the downward slope. And there's some histrionics in the performance. It's a a loud and it's very deeply performative showy kind of performance but it is also um in its way kind of subtle too there's a lot of like soft work that goes alongside the loud work i do think that there is something that could happen here i felt it more acutely last week

than i am feeling it this week but I was feeling like the reactionary set within the Academy is looking at how all of this has transpired and perhaps looking at it the same way you are, Amanda, through a kind of political lens, through a kind of like, don't try to control the way I view and grade art and maybe saying to themselves,

we should not only nominate Andrea Riceboro, but we should vote for her to win Best Actress. Now, Cate Blanchett has been the leader in the clubhouse for a long, long time in this award. And Michelle Yeoh has been hot on her heels. But there have been a handful of postings

from people who are in the Academy. Now, among them my favorite crazy uncle, Paul Schrader. But some less crazy people who are saying, this is an amazing performance and should be recognized. Now, this would be one of the all-time underdog stories, but I think would even further dampen Andrea Riceboro's reputation, ironically,

if she were to win for this movie that very few people have seen, that people seem to think is only being recognized because of some sort of untoward campaign. Do you think there's any chance of that happening? Probably not just from a numbers game and just from, for all of the histrionics, most people are just like, yeah, Cate Blanchett was really, really great. It definitely has become a hot button issue. And I would like to bring one last item to the table, which like, I don't think we're talking, which like, I don't think

we're talking enough about. And I don't think it was talked about enough during the, you know, the initial firestorm over it. And I don't think we're acknowledging it enough on this podcast. And there's one thing I disagree with Joanne on, which is like, I don't know if this is exactly what we've seen before in terms of campaigning, because I think it's a little bit more naked and obvious and frankly embarrassing. And I think the main thing that we need to be talking about is that every single person who fell for this campaign in some way or another and voted for Andrew Riceboro should be mortified. Okay. And not because it's a bad performance and not because, you know, you can't vote for

whoever you want, but like you got spawn conned and you don't even know that you got spawn conned. It is the most like Instagram 101 pay for play. Like Gwyneth Paltrow posted this and then posted about a posture corrector. Like guys, you gotta be smarter on the internet. And I think that you should be so mortified that you got tricked. And I don't know whether it's because of lack of internet savviness or because you really think that if you listen to what Gwyneth Paltrow and Edward Norton tell you to do, then you're going to have their career too. And oh my God, you're not. So I think that we need to bring more

shame into this equation with the hope that then these people take responsibility for their choices and don't again, vote for SponCon. We just can't have a SpawnCon Oscars. I know. Okay. Well, first of all, I know you were blessedly out on maternity leave, but the Flash entered the Speed Force last year. So I don't know what kind of dignity we can gather around the Oscars. But can I tell you? We've been spawned for years. gather around the Oscars. Can I tell you?

We've been spawned for years. It's the Academy Awards. I did watch last year's Oscars, and I listened to and loved your podcast. I think I was, like, dealing with Knox. It was, like, six weeks old when that happened. And so it took me a full two months to understand what Flash enters the speed for. So it was just words that you guys were saying for literal months. And then one day, like in a moment of real desperation, I Googled it.

And I think I literally read like a know your meme explainer. So you're right. But no, no, but that's a different type of spawn. You are right. I'm talking about the Kardashians internet. And you just got to be smarter out here. No, I'm glad that you're naming and shaming people. I think that's great, honestly.

And I think to Sean's point about like, would this actually result in a like sort of boomerang effect and get Andrea Risborough the Oscar? I know it's only been a couple of years, but I feel like that might be true of like the Green Book Academy, which I feel like had like in 2019 when Green Book won Best Picture. I feel like that Academy is like we refuse to be ashamed for our love of this shitty racially problematic movie that we have decided makes us feel like racism is solved. So we're going to vote for it for Best Picture despite everyone on these here twitters saying this

movie is terrible you should be embarrassed for voting for it right um but i think it's only been a couple years since then but i think the parasite academy i think the coda academy like i think it's changing in such a way i hope that it's changing such a way that they're no longer sort of, we can't still think of the voting body as like these old white men who are like, how dare you tell me I've been duped. I refuse to believe that. I want to explore that idea a little further when we start ranking the best picture contenders, because I have been chewing on something with respect to that and finding a kind of middle ground between the Green Book Academy and furthermore, like the Nomadland Academy. Like that in particular, I'm like, as I look at the last five years of Best Picture winners, I'm like, what is this group of people? How do they decide what they like?

Anyhow, let's just stay on that topic. So neither of you thinks that Andrea Risborough is going to win, right? No, I don't. What changes do you think the academy will actually make to the way that campaigns operate then because on the one hand there were these small rules broken but on the other hand like when you when you pull back and look from 30 000 feet i agree with you amanda that it's messier right that it's like less impressive and it feels more obviously coordinated but it's not that different to joanna's point about like

you know tell a friend tell a friend tell a friend, tell a friend. Tell a friend is the name of the game in the Academy Awards. Like, I have people emailing me all the time who are in the Academy just because they want me to say stuff on the podcast. So if they're emailing me, imagine what they're saying to fellow voters who they're, you know, connected to. So will they be able to make any meaningful change that disallows something like this from happening again? They will probably invent some social media rules, which is like fine. I mean, I'm sure they've done that for political campaigns as well. And then they're ignored.

And, you know, I think Edward Norton's social media manager will like have to consult the rule book before he does it next time. Joanna, does Edward Norton update his own Twitter account? Yes or no? 100% no. Thank you. Okay. I choose to believe. Okay. The man is a writer and a scholar. He went to Yale. This is the thing. He loves to tweet. This is the thing. Like these people weren't even being communicated to by Edward Norton. It was like the social media manager that he employs to log in. We just have to be smarter. Media literacy starts with us, you know?

You definitely think that this is like in league with Goop. And it kind of is, but kind of is not. It is, it kind of, no, it is. You're like, this is the Yoni candle of Oscar nomination. But SpawnCon is usually defined by cash, though. Like, in many ways, like, what differentiates this, I think, and I think is what's so fascinating about the idea of making rule changes, is that certainly these famous people were, whether they were duped or whether they were compelled or they just loved Andrea Risborough personally,

they did publicly make a showing. They made an effort to support this campaign. But they didn't do so because of money. Like no money changed hands here, which is different than the posture corrector, which is like literally money flowing. Right, that does actually say paid for. So you did watch the video. I sent it to you and you didn't respond.

I have not watched the video. But perhaps it will be like one of those things where you have to mark a post as yeah of course you know i wonder if that's the thing if that's an ad or something like that and like all these academy rules the academy was constantly creating rules in the wine scene era in response to something that harvey would do that like they didn't know someone would dare to do until harvey did it right um and you know obviously harvey wine sees a monster for a million different reasons but like some of these academy shenanigans you know are just like like uh

the big the big example that people bring up right is the year that gangs of new york was in contention and he you know miramax published an ad full- page ad, I think it was the New York Times, proclaiming to be written by the director Robert Wise in support of the film, but it was not actually written by him. It was like someone in his office, A, and B, he did not know it was going to be used for an ad. And so that after that, it was like, you can't have third parties giving testimonials. You know, they had to create that in response to what happened with Gangs of New York. And then Chicago won the best picture Oscar that year. Cause everyone was like, Harvey,

you've gone too far. And they didn't know like what else, you know, he could possibly be capable of. But like, and the fact that this, you have to have a screening associated with a reception idea is recent 2016. Like that's new.

So like, I, I feel like, yeah. Tagging a social media post as like hashtag Mary McCormick sent me an email this morning, like, or something like that. I don't know. I mean, I don't understand why we need to have any of these rules. Like, so you can't throw a party to support someone's campaign?

Like, this is actually not a presidential election. It's the Academy Awards. And you're also not supposed to have, I think there's like a food and drink budget. Like, it's supposed to be very minimal food and drink as well. From your perspectives, why do we need, why do they need those? Is it because some people are more powerful? Because this is an instance in which it's theoretically less powerful for people. Well, the original ones is because, yeah, people were like the studios and everything were spending all of their money and anointing it.

You know, so once we fixed the official ones, then they had to go, quote unquote, grassroots. This is not a grassroots campaign, by the way. I just, we need to go back. Matt Bellamy, who does the town for the Ringer Podcast Network, has been reporting on this ad nauseum. And he describes the communication as like every day for weeks, perhaps multiple times a week. This is not Mary McCormick sent me one email this morning. This is like Mary McCormick texted me every single day for two months. If she did that, would you mute her text?

Of course I would. The first one. Are you kidding? I hit unsubscribe on every single marketing email that I get instantly. But do you think you can't get to me? But do you think that Peggy Siegel was not doing the exact same thing? Yeah, I mean, I thought of another

interesting example here to follow up on your Gangs of New York example, which I think Matt has actually cited in his reporting too, which is back in 2009 when the Hurt Locker and Avatar were facing off against each other, Nicholas Chartier, one of the producers of the Hurt Locker, sent these emails to voters and without naming Avatar, suggested, you don't want to vote for the movie that made a billion dollars.

You want to vote for a smaller, a film with more integrity, a non-blockbuster. And this is somewhat similar. Now, The Hurt Locker did go on to win as opposed to the moment when Chicago won as a kind of rejection of Hardwick's tactics. So these things can work. And you see the ways in which like, they're basically plugging holes in the dam here. Like as technology grows, as the Academy evolves, as like they're increasingly divided sects within the Academy, the idea of trying to plug every hole

and trying to have like a reasonable election towards best actress. It just seems impossible to me. Right. And honestly, it won't work as well as the public shaming that is. I mean, I've been joking and I sort of I do actually think people should be embarrassed if they fell for this. But I would be if I were Andrea Risborough, I'd be mortified. I know. I'm just like, I'm so sorry.

She hasn't spoken really hardly at all since this all unfolded. Her only quote was like, I don't really know how this happened. But anyway, I think actually whatever the Academy does or doesn't do, as you said, Sean, willorton and Gwyneth Paltrow and all these people has, will make people think twice. You don't want to be in this story the next year. And you can already imagine that 15 people are going to try this next year. So that will be, but it'll be a modified effect because you can instantly recognize like oh i see this person's trying a to leslie type thing i'm not you know people do learn quickly despite my jokes about media and social media literately so i think it'll this can't really be replicated in a way and that's the best hope that we have. But I feel bad for everyone who has given their phone number out to people, you know? I wanted to ask you both about that, actually.

Joanna, do you think that this will be, I know, I agree with Amanda that this will, there will be attempts at replicating this. Could we ever see something like this ever again? For sure. Absolutely. And like, I think, I mean, you never know what's going to work. Like, remember the, I mean, of course you remember the Melissa Leo Oscar ads. Like, at least this isn't.

That was great, though. But that was owning it. Yes. But that worked. And like, I feel bad. And didn't she pay for it herself? She did. Yes, she did.

She paid for it herself because no one else would do it. You know, like, that's what I'm saying. And she won. That's taking a bet on yourself. So Mary McCormick's like, well, remember that year that Melissa Leo did that? Let's try this. You know what I mean?

And it's like, and then. I have to be honest, producing a photo shoot is a lot of work. And that's after she went to work every day to act in The Fighter. So I understand she put, texting takes a lot of time. I don't respect it in the same way that i do producing a piece of art oh interesting two pieces of art as melissa leo did it was quite

grand she was wearing like ball gowns in those photos as i recall fur i think and there were like grecian columns involved yeah but i mean i think that i think what's interesting about this whole conversation is that the social media aspect especially especially like the fact that Viola and Danielle Dabela were pushed out of this category. And so that puts it into like a different conversation that we've been having about the Academy. And that's good to sort of align these things because it puts, shines an even more urgent spotlight on this because we know, because you've been covering the Oscars for years and years, like these things are happening. Things like this are happening all the time in really insidious ways in terms of like Francis Fisher saying like four actresses are a lock vote for

this actress is like child's play compared to some of the really insidious smear campaigns that happen against, you know, like if you think about like when Selma came out a couple of years ago, years ago right and like there were suddenly all these op-eds about like the historical inaccuracies and inaccuracies and selma and like how dare they smear lbj and like all this sort of stuff like that or um i would say i mean i'm not i'm not we'll talk about best actor in a second i'm not pro him but like i think some of the austin butler accent stuff is probably coming from a competing campaign i'm sure and also from me good yeah you know what and also me but you

know like we but also colin farrell's people so like it's um it's happening everywhere all the time it's just like usually done uh in a less embarrassing way to Amanda's point, you know, unless embarrassingly obvious. I can't remember who it was who went on the record. I want to say it was Dave Bautista during the knock at the cabin press tour who said he confirmed that Austin Butler would not be using the Elvis voice in Dune 2. He's like, I've heard it. His fave Rautha is not in the Elvis voice. We're going to get to that race very soon. I think, let's talk about best actress, because historically, this category is usually done three months in advance.

It is usually decided. There have been some rare exceptions. You know, Olivia Colman over Glenn Close springs to mind, although, you know, The Wife was a film that not very many people saw. So for us to have assumed that Glenn Close was finally going to get her Academy Award was perhaps foolhardy. Can I tell you something funny? Yeah.

You recently gave me a screener for Empire of Light, a terrible film that I finally saw. But as I was opening my Blu-ray player, used the right terminology there. Shout out to Tim Simons. Don't tell me the wife was sitting in there.

It was. The wife was sitting in there. Have you not used your Blu-ray player in four years? I don't know whether it was at the... No, we have because my husband wanted to re-watch the BBC Tinker Taylor on DVD. That was like his comfort thing, like right before our son was born. But I think we didn't have like any other sleeve for the wife.

So I think he must have put the wife screener back in the Blu-ray. That's his home? That's where it lives? He took the wife out, put it in the Tinker Taylor case and then took Tinker Taylor out and put the wife back in the Blu-ray. I literally think that's what's happening. I'm actually like having physical pain right now just hearing the way that these beautiful objects are being

treated. Anyhow, before I break out into hives. So the year that Olivia won, though, she won the Golden Globe, right? And then that was the year that Lady Gaga and Glenn Close were like,

might have split the vote. It's possible. Did they split, though? Did Glenn Close win for best drama and Olivia for comedy? I can't recall it was at the globe but then like yeah didn't they tie at the critics choice or something like glenn yeah they're tied at the you know there was this whole like lady gaga glenn close and then olivia

coleman just sort of like slipped in there great great win great speech great moment in history love that love love that for i mean glenn close Glenn Close's face when we see Olivia Colman's victory is so painful I mean that is truly one of the staggeringly painful moments in Oscar history because she's just like

she had to change out of her Oscar gold she's wearing the Oscar gold dress that sometimes women wear when they're like pretty sure they're gonna win so when she went to the Vanity Fair party

she was like in black or whatever it's like I don't know it's very rare that both of these races are unpredictable at the same time I you know just looking back the last time I could really think of a time when they were at least somewhat unpredictable and even this year that I'm gonna cite was not that crazy unpredictable but in the

2012 Oscars Jean Dujardin for the artist and Meryl Streep for the Iron Lady one first of all yeah the Oscars are garbage I don know what the hell is going on here that those two performances won and god bless meryl streep who is one of the greats but that movie is terrible anyhow that was the last time i felt like both of those races were at least a coin flip heading into the night they gave the awards out so this is really unusual that we've got two really really competitive races here and the andrea Risborough story only increases that in some ways. I think this was a two-horse race for a long time. And now there's this other looming aspect of it.

How are you feeling about Best Actress, Amanda? The opposite of Best Picture, which is that I think it will be Cate Blanchett, and I'm not. You're not wavering? I'm not too nervous about it. It's not keeping me up at night. It's been, she's won every single thing that she's been up for.

The odds, the betting odds that I've been able to track down have more or less been around these numbers. Cate Blanchett is at minus 165, and Michelle Yeoh, for everything, everywhere, all at once, is at plus 120. That's pretty close and could move a lot in the next five weeks. Yeah, but they always try to do that and then they do it's always the person with the with the exception of the year that joanna cited when olivia coleman upset glenn close so to to to return to my to to my earlier okay first of

all the year that i was so mad the year that meryl streep won for the iron lady and actually i really wanted viola davis to win that that year even though I don't think The Help is a good film. I thought Viola Davis should have won that year. I think Meryl Streep thought Viola Davis should win that year.

But I think the conversation, the way in which the Andrew Rice-Burrow conversation might impact the race is it might happen that it boosts Michelle Yeoh. I was thinking this too,

Joanna. I think it's possible. If we're saying like, listen, white actresses, well-connected white actresses, like maybe this isn't your year. And like, again, like I said earlier with Viola Davis, Cate Blanchett, who's a fantastic guitar, has two Oscars and I am not pulling for her in any way to win a third Oscar, even though she's fantastic. Like I just,, I, I feel like, here's my Academy role that I would like to institute. If you win an Oscar, you should not be eligible for another five years. Now, Kate Blanchett would be eligible again. But, like, that's, that's why I don't like the way that, like, some actresses are just, like, obviously it's not happening to Kate Blanchett this year.

Tara's incredible. She's really incredible in it. But, like, repeat winners, I just, like, I'm like, let's give it to, let's spread the wealth. Tara's incredible. She's really incredible in it. But like, repeat winners, I just like, I'm like, let's give it to, let's spread the wealth. Michelle Yeoh. That's where I'm

staking my claim. Michelle Yeoh. I mean, what would we do though with the Tom Hanks, Philadelphia, and Forrest Gump Oscar? That's so funny.

I was just like, don't take that 90s magic away from us. He should have won for Apollo 13 too. That's a really interesting rule. They would never institute something like that. I know have won for Apollo 13 too. That's a really interesting rule. They would never institute something like that. I know, but they should. But that is very fascinating.

What you suggested earlier, though, has crossed my mind. And, you know, Amanda, generally speaking, I think you're right. I still think this is Cate Blanchett's Oscar, but she's doing a lot to not win. I mean, she keeps very publicly praising Michelle Yeoh. She's publicly praising her competitors. We mentioned the Riseboro thing earlier.

I think she's kind of a little embarrassed by the idea of having three because she's like, it's about the work. The tricky part is, is like, this is still a pretty

small movie and she, you want to still shed more and more light on Tar. There's also a whole like, Tar is like on the internet now in a big way that I find super, super annoying.

Like I just, it's coming. It's coming for you. It's not because it's like the discourse sucks. But whatever. It's just like, is it a dream or not?

Like I'm so bored by that conversation. And who cares? But that is how it happens, Sean Fennessy. That's true. You're right. That's how it happens.

You know, things get on the internet. People talk about them. My dad saw Tar. He didn't think Cate Blanchett was a realistic conductor and therefore he hated Tar.

And I was like, Dad, I'm going to need you to take a second look and we got a film for him it's called maestro coming q4 2023 oh my god what if my dad finally makes his big picture debut to critique the uh movie conducting styles let me just be clear my dad is not a trained conductor should we do the re mr holland's opus on the rewatchables to just bring it full circle? I feel like this is like those, like, is it GQ, right? Where you get an expert or Wired, like a Wired video where your dad is the expert on conducting even though he's not a conductor. My dad watches movies in his basement a lot. That's not, whatever.

It's online. It gets awareness. That's how it happens i also um just follow a tremendous number of kate blanchett fan accounts on instagram and she's everywhere she is that's special to me amanda they're really good and i'd love to share them with you and she is just she is working non-stop to promote movie, and she's on the trail. And I know that's because the theater company doesn't fund itself, but she's out there. According to the betting markets, this is the only nomination that TAR is favored to win right now, which I find interesting.

Betting markets are asleep, but whatever. Okay. Joanna, who's going to win? I'm putting Michelle Yeoh out. Like, we're going to have to have this conversation again after the SAG Awards, but I'm putting Michelle Yeoh out there. I think it's good to, like, do some, you know,

secreting of just putting it out in the world and letting it happen. And I do, I think Cate Blanchett is a lock, but I really liked the Michelle Yeoh performance. It was my favorite part of Everything Everywhere all at once, which is still just a very long movie title and I like it would be really fun and it is sort of one of the major shames of this awards season that she has to go up against

Cate Blanchett's performance because it would be it's deserving and it would be wonderful to see her win an Oscar so like if you put it out in the world it might happen I like it it's deserving and it would be wonderful to see her win an Oscar. So, if you put it out in the world, it might happen. I like it. It's a little like you met the Warriors in the finals. Yeah. You know, like, oh, well, good luck. Great season. Nice job. Nice career, Michelle Yeoh. Not quite. But there's a part of me that I would like to see it.

I would like to see it. Can I just go back to Mr. Holland's Outpost really quickly? Of course. For a second. Yes. Sean, is that movie special to you because they changed the lyrics of Beautiful Boy to be Beautiful Sean? Is that a special film for you? Well, okay. So this is, I think, isn't Beautiful Boy written about Sean Lennon? Yeah, but I don't think they say his name in the actual song.

I think that there is a performance by John. This is a huge song in my household growing up. So that appearing is very powerful to me. Is that why I liked it? No. I liked it because I was a dumb teenager and I was like, this is profound. And then I watched it when I was like 38 and I was like this is pretty bad

but I like it and I like that episode of the rewatchables I think it was Me, Bill and Van and Van also loved it so like Van being super fired up

about Mr. Holland that was dope I haven't seen it since it came out when I was like 12 but I remember weeping and finding it really beautiful

super emotional yeah okay so the three of us will do the re-opus, the re-Holland alongside Amanda's dad coming soon. Q4 2023. In 100 meters,

turn right. Actually, no. Turn left. There's some awesome new breakfast wraps at McDonald's. Really? Yeah. There's the sausage, bacon, and egg. A crispy seasoned chicken one. Mmm. A spicy end egg egg worth the detour. They sound amazing. Bet they taste amazing too.

Wish I had a mouth. Take your morning into a delicious new direction with McDonald's new breakfast wraps. Add a small premium roast coffee for a dollar plus tax at participating McDonald's restaurants. Let's talk about best actor. I'm going to give you the betting odds. Yeah. Best actor right now. Okay.

Brendan Fraser is at minus 165. Austin Butler and Colin Farrell are both at plus 275. The grimace on Joanna's face right now. She is displeased with those numbers. Paul Muscal at plus 2,500. I did revisit after Sun Amanda. I'm prepared to speak with you about that at any time. Bill Nye is at plus 2,500. I did revisit After Sun, Amanda. I'm prepared to speak with you about that at any time. Bill Nye is at plus

3,500. Did you see Living, Jo? Yeah. Did you end up watching it, Amanda? I did in the same Blu-ray player. Found its way back. Did either of you guys like Living? I liked it fine. It's fine, right? Sure, it's fine.

This feels very much like Bill Nye. You've entertained us for years. Here's your Oscar nomination. I'm a big fan of his. I think it would. It's fine, right? Sure, it's fine. This feels very much like Bill Nye. You've entertained us for years. Here's your Oscar nomination. I'm a big fan of his. I think it would be better if he'd been nominated for Love Actually. But anyway. Or like Underworld, maybe? This is one of the more historically weak best actor races we've ever had.

I really like one of the performances. Maybe two. I'm really confused by, I mean, the odds on Fraser because I thought that was a five-month-old narrative that was not still the case. And I thought it was Butler v. Farrell was where we were. I thought so too, but that's not what I found. In three different places, I saw roughly these odds. I don't really think the odds get updated that frequently that's the other thing i've learned several years of doing this is that they're like not paying as much attention we could probably make a lot of money just on the side fanduel call me yeah presenting sponsor here at the

podcast network um i i think that there is a chance that fraser and farrell or excuse me that that butler and farrell are um canceling each other which is not to say that they have anything in common with each other but that the like presumption and visibility of both of them at the globes is sort of splitting something and the fraser you know being overlooked at the only real like televised precursor prior to this could be benefiting it. Now, obviously the whale was not nominated for best picture. And a lot of people felt like if, since that film didn't get best picture nomination, Fraser's odds were lowered, but we do see this sometimes, you know, we just talked

about Judy. That was a movie that got no other Oscar nominations, except for perhaps hair and makeup. And that, you know, Renee Zellweger won. So it's not implausible for a standalone nomination to win. Actually, this year as well, The Whale has a makeup nomination and I think his favorite to win that as well.

So you could see something, there's something similar in that shape there. And Fraser, there's a lot of warmth towards him. You know, I really didn't like that movie at all. and Fraser there's a lot of warmth towards him you know I really didn't like that movie at all I really like him a lot as an actor but um Sean and I as like co-presidents of the Colin Farrell should win this Oscar uh club like have been texting a little bit about the Brendan Fraser

um sentiment campaign you know what I mean? Like Fraser is like, I, I support him a lot. I like this comeback narrative for him a lot. Um, he has been very emotional, uh, every turn and that sentiment could sort of buoy his chances. The, uh, I felt like it was Farrell and Butler sort of on a knife's edge, like really could go either way with the slightest gust of wind. And what has happened since the Golden Globes is that Lisa Marie Presley died. And Baz Luhrmann at least has been out there. Like there's, there was a really recent quote from him being like Lisa Marie really loved Austin.

Like they are using that. And like that all feels very slimy, completely slimy. Of course. It's really gross. But it is something that they are doing. And like that sort of thing

where like, you know, you bring Marsha Clark or Tonya Harding or whatever to like any awards or whatever, like trot out the real life people to like all these sort of occasions. I feel like they're using it

in a very slimy fashion, but also a very like measured fashion.. I feel like they're using it in a very slimy fashion, but also a very like measured fashion. And I feel like that could, if it were Butler and Farrell on a knife sedge, I feel like it could tip it Butler's way, which would devastate me because I really think Colin Farrell

deserves this Oscar. Where are you leaning right now? I have been saying this since the Golden Globes. Austin Butler is going to win. I'm really sorry, Joe. I know that's really going to hurt you. And I agree with everything that you've said about the sliminess of the Lisa Marie Presley stuff.

Everything else about the campaign is frankly working and working hard for me. And I just, Austin Butler is a force to be reckoned with. I saw a friend the other night who's just like, I don't know what to tell you, Austin Butler. And I was like, yeah, I get it. You don't have to say anything else. Like it's a voice, no voice. Congratulations to Kaia Gerber.

Okay. And, and old people really like that movie. I don't think Elvis is going to win in best picture, but I think a lot of like the positive feeling towards it will be funneled his way. I sort of feel that Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell will cancel each other out a bit in terms of two actors who are beloved and who deserve it. You know, the kind of it's time thing of a certain age and generation.

Joanna is just like glaring and I, I'm sorry. No, I'm just thinking about it. I'm just thinking about, I'm not glaring. I'm just thinking about, I'm just thinking about it. You know, I'm not glaring. I'm just thinking about I'm just thinking about like it's it's how this is your favorites. The Austin Butler narrative is what's so often true.

The best actress category. So maybe I'm like maybe this is a win for feminism. I'm trying to spin it somehow that I like like it, but I don't like it. And I like putting aside your Colin Farrell support, you know, and that you want this for him, it doesn't speak to you at all? The Austin Butler performance? Yes. Or just the Austin Butler experience. My favorite prog rock band. I think that my second favorite performance in this category

is Paul Meskel like I thought he was really good I like Paul Meskel as well I don't know the other thing the voice

obviously there were a lot of jokes about it but as soon as he started talking at the Golden Globes I was like oh and we have an Oscar winner you know

like just the world you got butler pilled you just got like horned up on butler it's like what happened I think you've been I don't even on butler. It's like, what happened? I don't even remember this from the pod about the movie. What happened?

I did say, I was like, wow, he was really good. And no, I even said on that podcast, I was like, oh, I get it. I had filed him away as sort of like a Disney Channel star. He was on the Carrie Diaries. I was like, that is a person who is a younger generation. I don't have to worry about it. I don't, those are paparazzi photos I don't have to look at. And then I was like,

oh, now I have to take this seriously. This is, I instantly recognized the star power. And then I think that, you know, the memeness plus people do like Elvis plus the kind of waiting of all the other nominees. I just, it's the trains moving. I'm on it and, the train's moving. I'm on it. And I'm okay with it.

I just, I've got Bohemian Rhapsody ringing in one ear. Yeah. Well, and Rami Malek won for Bohemian Rhapsody. I know, I know. But I, and, and, you know, it's a very similar circumstance. Is it a grown as a culture since Bohemian Rhapsody? Are we not all embarrassed by what happened with Bohemian Rhapsody? I think it's rude to compare Austin Butler's performance as Elvis to Rami Malek's in Bohemian Rhapsody. Are we not all embarrassed by what happened I think it's rude to compare

Austin Butler's performance as Elvis to Rami Malek's in Bohemian Rhapsody. I think Rami Malek's a really good actor and that was a very bad movie. I think Elvis is a better movie

but not a good film. I think Austin Butler is very good in Elvis and I said the same when we talked about it months and months ago. You were pretty rude about Elvis though.

You hated it. I really, really did not like the film. I thought it was like really, really cut and paste. The Tom Hanks stuff is terrible. It's awful. No, it's insane. I had a nice time. though you hated it i really really did not like the film i thought it was like really really cut and paste stuff it's awful no it's terrible it i had a nice script is not good i mean i i just pointed this out the other day but you know as wesley noted the like the racial politics of that

movie are fucking idiotic like so bad and so like australian guy come to america explain the blues to all the white people who the old white people who go see elvis like it's really bad and like under discussed because everybody, because everybody who's 65 who votes in the Academy is like, Austin Butler is a star. So I, on the other hand, if Austin Butler was a big time movie star, I would welcome that. I'd be more than happy with that being the case. I, the Colin Farrell performance is great to me. I really liked that movie a lot. I've tried to revisit a bunch of Oscar movies over the weekend. I rewatched everything I've ever watched. I rewatched Banshees. I rewatched After Sun. I tried to rewatch Elvis, and I was like, I can't.

This is just, this stinks. There's absolutely no reason to watch that movie at home. It's two hours and 40 minutes long. No, and it's... Anyway, I think Colin Farrell's going to win, but I think that's just wish casting. I think I'm just, I can't get out of my head that that's what I want to see. I think I'm wish casting both Michelle Yeoh and Colin Farrell, but to win, but I think that's just wish casting. I think I'm just, I can't get out of my head that that's what I want to see. I think I'm wish casting both Michelle Yeoh and Colin Farrell,

but that's like where I, where the heart wads with the heart wads. You might end up being wrong. Yeah, yeah. We have to accept that. Yeah. I mean, we're going to, I feel like we're going to know

one way or another after the SAGs. Like that that's what's going to help us understand what's happening. I'm trying to recall, the SAG nominations for Best Actress, are they significantly different from the Best Actress nominations at the Academy Awards?

Ana de Armas was also nominated for SAG because actors love that performance. I don't know what to say. Okay, so it is pretty close. And then the only difference, I think, in actor is Adam Sandler is in the Palma Scale spot. So, all right. Well, that's notable.

We're not really settled, and I think that's a good sign, honestly. I have a weird feeling like this is going to be a good telecast. Am I crazy? Am I getting my hopes up for something that always lets me down? Yes. You've got to protect your emotions. But remember the Speed Force thing that Joe was just talking about?

No, I told a whole story like 20 minutes ago about how I didn't remember it. But I was just referring to the thing that she said on the pod like 20 minutes ago about how I didn't remember it. And I'm like, I'm sitting right across from you. But I was just referring to the thing that she said on the pod like 20 minutes ago. Are you remembering the slap that happened last year? Yeah. Like, what are you talking about? Also, no, no, no.

Come on. What? Aside from the slap, we agreed that the last Oscars telecast was an absolute abomination. I agree. Like, even aside from it,

it was awful. Yeah. And we did not have a good time and it was bad and it was outlook bad for the Oscars. Well, when's the last time you had a good time

with the Oscars? Parasite, when? Yeah, that was fun. Yeah, Parasite year. Parasite year was great. Yeah. That was phenomenal. And Bong Joon-ho,

you know, saluting Martin Scorsese after winning Best Director. That kicked ass. I was like, this is exactly what I want from the Academy Awards. Is new generation of master acknowledging old generation of master. An evolution in the taste of the Academy. An expansion of the kinds of movies that people will see in the mainstream.

That was everything to me. And almost every other movie that was nominated that year, I was like, that movie's good. Like, we will never get back to that. But that was actually, for all the bitching and moaning that I do on this show about the Academy Awards, it showed us that it can be interesting. There's also been a lot of talk this year, like, this is a bad slate of nominees or this wasn't a good movie year. I'm not really with that at all. Like, they've done a lot worse in the past. I know we've got we've got like it's like two no at least one bonafide blockbuster smash smash ola in the uh in the best picture race you know I mean like a movie that avatar

yeah so like two movies that everyone has seen well okay let's just talk about it let's do let's do the rankings let's talk about it so we haven't ranked these films since they were nominated for best picture joe we haven't even spoken films since they were nominated for Best Picture. Joe, we haven't even spoken about the Best Picture nominees. What'd you think? There's 10 films here mandated by the Academy. They have to nominate 10. I mean, my personal condolences to you over Babylon.

And I hope that you and yours will recover. We are thriving right now. The film went to VOD. And my mentions are full of disciples. It is a magical time to be a Babylonian. We are full of vim, vigor, and the power of cinema. I'm just so proud to be a part of the moment as more and more people see this movie. Just get on the train.

There's plenty of room. Plenty of room. I'm on my own train. There's plenty of room because I really don't think there are that many of you. How dare you? How dare you insult us as we drive towards valhalla dozens of us it's just it's amazing the ways that you can create a new to make yourself unhappy no no i'm this is the happiest i've been on this in this entire conversation today think back on my first viewing in the cinema of the movie babylon and i like, this is it. We did it.

We did it. We have a film that makes me feel alive, which is all I am seeking. Thank you for your condolences. I can't wait until 80 years from now when some upstart filmmaker ends their movie with a montage of a Sean Light character seeing Babylon in the theaters

for the first time. Fortunately, I'll be dead at that point. I won't have to suffer through my own indignity. Do you, what do you make of like kind of the outer, outer edge? The all quiet on the Western front. The triangle of sadness. The women talking. You know, we spoke about women talking on the show, the three of us.

It made it. It made it. What do I make of it? I mean, I, it made it, it made it. Um, what do I make of it? I mean, I think it is why we talked about this a little bit. I think last time that it is wild that the only Netflix center here is all quiet on the Western front. Right.

Is it, is it correct though? I don't, you know, yes. It's hard to say. Yes. Did I like, are you a bardonian? I don't know. More than these. It's hard to say. Yes. Did I like Hustle, the Adam Sandler film, more than these other films?

I may have. Okay, what? I may have liked Hustle more than Glass Onion and All Quiet on the Western Front. I did as well. Hustle was good. But would you argue that it should be nominated for Best Picture? I wouldn't not. Okay.

I would argue that I didn't really care for Triangle of Sadness that much. I would be okay with Adam Sandler and the Bill Nighy spot. Yeah, that would be fun. That would be really fun. That would be fun. Yeah. Yes. But yeah, I'll quiet.

I mean, and interesting that, is this the first? Okay. Here's my Oscar trivia failure. Is this the first time two non-English language films are, well, I guess Triangle of Sadness is. It's not technically considered. Yeah, yeah, yeah. yeah yeah okay never mind international um that's an international filmmaker elvis is also from an international filmmaker that is true knows nothing about racial politics in america um so is banshee um james cameron is an interstellar yeah you know what juliet litman asked um she sent a big picture special request

of whether we would talk about the brewing controversy about the portrayal of Ireland in Banshees of Minishiran. I'm not interested in this. And I said I would ask Sean Fennessey,

resident sort of Irish person. Well, first of all... Much like Martin McDonough. Yes, complicatedly, I am only, despite being translucent and having the name Sean Edward James Fennessey, only 50% Irish.

However, I do strongly identify with that 50% that exists inside of my genome. And here's what I want to say. The criticism that Martin McDonagh is a British-born man with Irish parents, that does not discount anybody from writing about Ireland. Furthermore, the whole point of the film is that it is a riff on the tropes and fables and folklore of Irish storytelling. So,

for people to criticize the film for locating those things and subverting them in Martin McDonagh-esque style is preposterous to me. Now, honestly,

this goes back a little bit to some of the criticism of Three Billboards that I found to be a little disingenuous. I'm not super interested in reassessing that movie because I think it's

much less successful but I think what he was after in that movie is very similar to what he's after in this movie which is that there is far more violence discontent and

aggression underlying what seemed to be genteel cultures and that this movie very accurately nails that the warm and friendly Irishman is not as warm and settled as he may seem. Well, and it's also bizarre to me because this has been Martin McDonagh outside of Three Billboards and like Seven Psychopaths and stuff like that. Like this has been Martin McDonagh's entire career.

All of his plays. All of his plays are about like the sticky underbelly of Irish culture. And like they're incredible. And I think he's a genius. And like, you know, I'm not an Irish person. So if like this criticism is coming from inside the house, then that's one conversation. But like I mean, I was one of the people who really hated Three Bell Boards. So like I love Banshees.

One of my favorite, I think maybe my favorite film last year. And I'm glad that we secreted Banshee to the top of our best picture ranking list last time. But like, I think we have to admit the reality that Everything Everywhere All At Once is at the top of the list. Oh, you're already going there. I mean, don't you think? I mean, should I uncork my feelings about everything or everywhere all at once? Go ahead Um I thought a lot about America's relationship to rap when I was thinking

about this movie. Here's why Is there an escape exit? Everybody sit there and listen to me give a speech about pop music Listen to you yell at me about Irish people for like What Juliet did and I was just... Thank you to Juliet who I love.

Okay, here's the thing. When I was a teenager, when we were all teenagers, hip hop was considered like an outsider art. It was becoming increasingly commercial and popular, but it was not a part of the mainstream of American music culture. In the course of our adult lives, hip hop has not only become the mainstream, it has become like the only stream. Like all forms of popular American music now are deeply, deeply informed by kids who grew up listening to rap. So if you look at the producers who produce songs for Taylor Swift or Adele, they were listening to Dr. Dre when they were kids. And they're bringing that to the music. And so there's this kind of syncopated, kind of rhythm-driven aspect to all American popular music. So much so that modern rap music feels like far more psychedelic and far more drained of whatever Public Enemy sounded like.

I'm sorry to speechify about this, but I think about it in the same context as everything ever was. We've seen a bunch of movies in the last five years win Best Picture. Shape of Water, Parasite, Nomadland. Films that don't really feel like they're forebearers. They don't feel like Out of Africa. They don't feel like Ben-Hur. They don't feel like these big stagey productions centering white people, telling grand tales that are with huge production budgets.

They're different. They're international. They're very, very informed by genre. And part of that is because the 80s and the 90s were super duper mainstream genre moments. Horror, thrillers, sports movies, all of these things that completely transformed the commercial nature of Hollywood.

All the people who are making movies now watched all those movies. They have big relationships to those movies. So I'm watching everything, everything, everywhere all at once last night for the third time i knew the daniels when i what and what they did when i sat down to watch that movie and so when i saw that there was elements of kung fu and there was huge elements of science fiction i wasn't surprised i was like this is what they do when i saw it and joe and you and i talked about it on the pod i wasn't

thinking this is a best picture contender i I was like, wow, that would be fascinating if it was even in the race. If it was in the top 15, how cool would that be if a movie like this made it? But in the back of my head, I was like, this movie is way too interested in, you know, the Matrix and Wong Kar Wai and not interested enough in Ben-Hur.

And then I realized that it's the same thing that happened with hip hop is what's happened with American movies, which is that the kind of genre overload and what could be perceived as like outsider art or something happening kind of on the margins of our culture is in the mainstream now. And we kind of expect to see kung fu interaction movies.

You know, we kind of expect to see time travel and multiversal storytelling. And we kind of expect to see not white people in the center of our stories and in a way the Academy in theory is like much more comfortable with this

now I felt that this movie was going to win all along and I had a moment yesterday when I was rewatching it where I was like there's no fucking way this movie is going to win there's

a moment in the movie that I thought was really effective where Stephanie Sue's character is looking directly into her mother's eyes and she says, she kind of like sings sucked into a bagel.

Do you remember this one? It's sort of like midway through the movie. And then the film like flashes onto the everything bagel and it like pulsates and there's a huge kind of like cosmic sound. And then we see this like hard cut to her grandfather on a motorized wheelchair coming out of nowhere

and smashing her character through a wall. And it's basically like the Three Stooges on acid. And I was like, God, this is such a weird movie. It's Looney Tunes. It's Looney Tunes. It's a cartoon that also has all of these other genre elements. And yet, when I watched the movie,

I wasn't like, how zany is that? I was like, oh, this is a Daniels movie. This is kind of normal. And I think that there is a case to be made that that is Hollywood now and that that is what audiences want and it's potentially,

the Academy is wrapping itself around the idea of not just rewarding, I mean, it didn't reward Babylon, which is, you know, kind of grotesque in its own way, but it's also like a movie about the movies, you know, like it feels like

maybe more traditionally what it might have recognized. There are some obvious- That's what the Fablemans is in here, the movie about the movies, right? Yes, and maybe the Fablemans did take that spot from Babylon and the Fablemans is probably

the most traditional-seeming movie here. Elvis is probably the most, like, recent history-seeming movie here. 21st century, you know, biopic zone. But I can't shake everything ever well at once. So what are you thinking? Like, if Joe thinks that

and I basically think that despite all of its oddity, that it feels normal. Can I say one thing before I want to hear what Amanda has to say? But like that sucked into a bagel moment, which was on my like when Mallory and I did our top 10 ringer verse moments last year. That was one of mine was that sucked into a bagel moment because it comes like when she says that. It's right after this speech where she's talking about intensive depression and nihilism and stuff like that there's like this intentional like very intensive emotional devastating exchange of ideas between mother and daughter and then it's

just like sucked into a big this absurd like moment on top of that followed by this looney tunes moment and like the frenetic nature of that film doesn't work for everyone. Very smart people, including our friend Amanda, like don't love that movie. Like that's fine. like this is how we celebrate Hollywood is through like our reference to 2001 or Kung Fu film or whatever the case may be. But I do, I would argue that this film also has a very sincere emotional core to it that sits alongside like Raka Kuni and stuff like that you know what I mean like for me that's why the movie lingers because of that other emotional component it does I'll just add one other

thing it's not gloopy though there is certainly gloopy moments but hear me out for a second part of the reason why the Michelle Yeoh performance is interesting and powerful is that that character feels very true to real people that daniel's new particular daniel kwan's mother he's talked about this and that she was a pretty unsparing person and michelle yo's character in the movie all the

way up until like the final minute is really hard on her daughter and really kind of brutalizing in the way that she communicates with her and obviously there's a lot of realization and catharsis and the idea that like family is ultimately what what overwhelms and what guides us through life like that is there is something deeply sentimental and traditional about that concept but most of the movie is not it's not terms of endearment you know what i mean it's not like what you i know that that movie has a kind of sharp edge too but like it's only about that right this is a movie that is about a lot of different kinds of things a lot of different kind of storytelling types so i guess what i'm not trying to make some grand sweeping

prediction about this i guess i'm just fascinated by the idea that we could arrive at a moment where a movie like this is effectively the front runner because right now based on those betting odds it's minus 280 it is the it is the front runner for best right now, based on those betting odds, it's minus 280. It is the front runner for best picture. Right. And the reason I don't think it's going to win is that every year at this point in the calendar year, the front runner has not won best picture. And it's had a target on its back for a very long time. And also, it has the most nominations of any movie this year. And in the last five years, the movie with the number, the most nominations, like, often gets shut out. But if not shut out, only wins one or two awards.

Now, the Academy is changing. I feel like those movies are usually, like, those Netflix movies with that, like, Netflix muscle behind it versus an H24 movie. You know what I mean? No, I mean, I think that is true. And the Academy is changing so quickly every year at this point. They're adding people at such rapid numbers that it's really hard to be predictive about anything. But, you know, I remember I was sitting at home listening to you two talk about Power of the Dog and CODA just last year. And Joe, you were on this very early of just like i think there's a coda thing coming i don't you know the power of the dog again to your point was a netflix movie

most nominations it had been earmarked for you know months and months and had its own set of like things that were new and remarkable about it and just it didn't happen so that's where I am I'm just like this the math is too easy here and it just I think never goes like this yeah I could be wrong smart no I think you're so smart to be that level of wary because they think you're really correct that that cementing a narrative so early such in this category has not worked out the last few years. But in your view, then, what is the coda that's coming up? What is surging?

In actuality, it's probably either Banshees or Fablemans. And I think Chris made a really good point that those cancel each other out in different ways. Can I suggest another theory? Sure. Top Gun Maverick is now running in third place. It was not running in third place for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks. And it is now plus 1,000. Right.

So to me, if you were going to pause it, to me, it's not TAR. No, I know. I think TAR is divisive. I don't think Top Gun is divisive. It's not. And I think there are going to be a lot of, quote unquote, steak eaters in the Academy who will have it pretty high up because of the accomplishment of the production. Now, will a lot of people have

it at one? Probably not. But a lot of people might have it at two or three. Will it be enough twos and threes to get it in a ranked choice circumstance to the top? I don't think so, but I would not be surprised. And I'm trying to wrap my head around that being, as we sat here and we twiddled our thumbs about Banshees and Fablemans and everything ever all at once, and could there be a Tar Surge or All Quiet on the Western Front has such below-the-line support. Top Gun Maverick's been sitting there for nine months.

Yeah. I mean, I would be absolutely thrilled. I would throw a party for the both of you. I would get you a cruise cake. Thank you. I would get you a cruise cake. Thank you. They're so good. They are good. I've never had one, but I'm really excited to try one.

That's so good. But, like, you make such an excellent point, but looking, it really has been those Netflix films. It's The Power of the Dog. It was Mank, or, yeah, it was Mank the year before, right? Roma was the victim of this? It was Roma. It was Mank or yeah, it was Mank the year before, right? Roma was a victim of this. It was Roma. It was 1917, which wasn't. 1917.

I mean, Joker was also, I think, the most nominated movie that year. And Joaquin did win, but it did not go home. So, I mean, The Irishman is obviously the memorable one. And it was completely shut out. I think I'm just, I think you, I, I, I'm going to take this as a caution to be

on the lookout for this, but I feel like I haven't seen that narrative, that parasite or Coda, which was like a feel good narrative of like, we feel good about voting for this. And I feel like everything everywhere like because i can't i can't assess the nomadland year it was so weird that i can't i can't even like really add it to the data pool but like in terms of coda and paris that it just felt like a we feel really good about supporting this movie and as far as i can tell um and i'm not as in it as you guys are this year that's still everything everywhere all at once. But I'm open to that narrative shifting somehow

in the last couple weeks. You know what I thought was really underrated and should have won in the Nomadland year was Judas and the Black Messiah. I love that movie. I just want to point out that I don't really understand why that movie... I don't either.

I didn't understand the criticisms of it specifically and it felt to me like if we were going to do historical drama in America, like that was a way to do it. For whatever reason, I stumbled on that movie

on streaming the other day and I was like, this movie is really, really well made. Some of it was also the eligibility year and that came out, if I recall,

like really... Earlier in the year? I thought it was really late in the window. Really late. And Nomadland had like, you know, 45 months or something.

Nomadland was already on Hulu before Disney Black Messiah was in theaters. You guys are right. That didn't come out like February.

It was February 1st. That's right. So it was two months after. That's so interesting. I wonder if you pushed that movie back to November. Anyway, we're sidetracked. I mean,

Daniel still won, so that's like... He did, and that was great and it deserved to win. But that movie was so November. Anyway, we're sidetracked. I mean, Daniel still won, so that's like... He did, and that was great, and it deserved a win. But that movie was so good, yeah. So last time we put these together, here were our rankings. Number 10, Women Talking. Number 9, Babylon R.I.P.

We overlooked All Quiet on the Western Front. That's what took the Babylon slot. Number 8, Triangle of Sadness. Number 7, The Fablemans. Number 6, Top Gun Maverick. Number 5, Avatar the Way of Water. Number 4, Elvis. Number 3, Tar. Number 2, Everything Everywhere All at Once. And number 1, The B Maverick. Number five, Avatar, The Way of Water. Number four, Elvis. Number three, Tar.

Number two, Everything Everywhere All at Once. And number one, The Banshees of Indischaran. So, you know, give me from 10 down. Women Talking 10. Again. I agree. Correct. Triangle Sadness.

I believe so. Yeah. I believe so. The lack of a Dolly DeLeon nomination there. The Ruben Aslan was nominated for Best Director. It's not me doing it. You get mad at me every time I point out facts. Like, I didn't have a vote, okay?

It's just painful to me because I was such a big believer in him. Well, you win some, you lose some. We're going to revisit it on the show next week. Do you think that Triangle of Sadness could be before Avatar The Way of Water just because Big Jim was not nominated? Yeah, I've said this before, Jo, but I feel like it's got strong Two Towers energy

where it's like, we'll take care of you on Avatar 5, Jim, if you make it there. And what I wonder about now is, will Avatars 3 and 4 be nominated for anything? Or will we just accept this extraordinary thing that took 13 years? How long are they going to be? Probably between six and seven hours each, I would say. Jeez.

I mean. I have a link to watch the film Avatar the Way of Water, and I'm kind of fascinated to watch it at home. How long do you think Dune 2 is going to be? Oh, good question. Like five? Well, furthermore, do you think that they will tease us with the further adventures of Paul? Like, will there be a finality

to Dune 2? I don't know what happens, so I don't know. Don't tell me. I mean, there's many more books. I understand that there are more books, but there's... Paul, he borrows the music

of black Americans to transmogrify into the world's greatest singer-songwriter. And then is later accused of that. And Fade Ralph is like, oh, mama. Oh, mama. It's a really good bit. What's nine? I would say that Avatar, Way of Water is nine

and Triangle of Sadness is eight. I'm sorry that I can read the five names listed for best director. You know? I don't know what to tell you. Avatar the Way of Water was finally unseated from the top of the box office this weekend by knock at the cabin and 80 for Brady. Yeah. I'd just like to say on this podcast, I'm not seeing 80 for Brady.

You also said it on Twitter. Yeah, I said it on Twitter. And there's a very simple reason why. It's because I fucking hate Tom Brady. Okay. And building a cinematic shrine to people fucking hate Tom Brady okay and building a cinematic shrine to people who like Tom Brady no no

this is why I wound up seeing the Puss in Boots sequel in the theater this weekend because people I went with refused to see 80 for Brady because they're hated for Tom

Brady the movie did quite well at the box office I'm a huge fan of Rita Moreno Sally Field Jane Fonda Lily Tomlin icons the lot of them any other project they want to make, I'm in. That movie, fuck no.

I'm not seeing it. So now you're announcing your spinoff podcast where you watch all of Grace and Frankie? I have watched an episode or two. It wasn't really for me, but you know. Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin forever and ever, and Rita Moreno and Sally Field. I'd rather watch nine to five if I had a choice. Okay, same. Okay, so Avatar is 9,

Triangle of Sadness is 8. Do you agree with this, Joanna? Yeah. Okay, so we had the Fablemans way low at 7 last time. I feel like perhaps that's shifted somewhat. Are we putting Elvis down here? Ooh. So Terrence Nance commented last night

after the Grammys that Elvis was definitely winning Best Picture because Harry Styles won Album of the Year over both Beyonce and Bad Bunny. And so just to close the loop on the white interloper, I don't know. Do you think that's true? Is Elvis winning Best Picture? I don't. Okay. But I do think Austin Butler is going to win.

So that might be, that might be the answer. That is. If Austin Butler wins, I think that actually dampens Elvis's chances to win best picture. This is what I think is going to happen is that all of the enthusiasm

will go for Austin Butler because, you know, I don't think anyone can feel good about the Tom Hanks performance. You're saying everyone's as horned up as you? I think a lot of people are. Okay.

Fair enough. Where's that horned up energy for Colin Farrell? That's my question. Good question. Do you know what I mean? That's a good question. Do you realize that Banshees of Edeshiren was not nominated in costume and design, which means that those sweaters were not recognized,

which suggests to me that people just aren't paying attention you know so that's the problem I feel like Jenny the donkey had like a ribbon of some sort that was normally nominated

yeah what about Jenny's styling hair and makeup yeah come on that soft gray coat yeah Barry Keown's hat

come on those sweaters were beautiful I don't under this is way dorkier than the good jokes you guys are making but I don't understand why that movie's notorkier than the good jokes you guys are making, but I don't understand

why that movie's not nominated for cinematography. It's beautiful to look at. It's beautifully shot. Just, that's a very sincere statement. Okay. Once again,

the Best Cinematography Award, what the fuck are they doing? How much money is Ireland paying you on this podcast? They're not paying me anything, but if they wanted to host me

for several years in their nation, I would happily oblige. I can see it. Would you take a lifetime supply of pachine in payment from Ireland? No, all I need is safe harbor. I need a safe harbor from the tragedy of America. Just take me in Ireland. The Celtic tiger rises once again.

Okay. So Elvis of America. Great. Just take me in Ireland. The Celtic tiger rises once again. Okay. So Elvis at seven. Tar. No, come on. Get on board. It's also, I love Tar.

I'm not anti-Tar. I'm pro-Tar. Guys, it's not about whether we like Tar or not. Tar is nominated for everything across the board. Everyone is like, wow, Tar, you know? And I just think that you're underestimating it. Oh, all quiet then.

Yes, all quiet and then Tar. Okay. That's fine. Okay. Okay. I can get with that. All quiet at six and Tar at five. You're willing to accept that?

I'm willing to accept it? Yeah. This is the bargain that we have struck. So that's going to be Fableman's, Top Gun Banshees Banshees

everything everywhere? Yeah. Yeah, that's fine. Are we sure Banshees of Indischarren is running ahead of Top Gun Maverick? Are we sure? Yes.

I'm shocked to find Top Gun Maverick this high, but I trust you. That's not a good idea. Reader of the odds. He's been wrong. I, yes, I do think that Academy voters like Martin McDonough and the cultural product of Ireland,

whether or not it's legitimate or not. People like Banshees. I haven't heard anyone who doesn't like that movie, which is wild. I did not think that would be a movie that people would like. It is quite violent and despairing.

So it doesn't feel like a Best Picture winner when it concludes. None of these movies really do. None of these movies. Oh, I don't know. I mean, I think everything, everywhere, all at once concludes with, you know, a woman being nice to her daughter for the first time in her life. That's kind of nice, right? Yeah, but even that.

I mean. Yeah, then there's like the rock, you know, with the eyes. Yeah, Rack of Cooney. Is that the name of the rock? Like the butt plug awards in the IRS office. Yeah. Kiwi Kwan making a triumphant return wielding a fanny pack. A lot of stuff happens in that movie.

I will say that. So many things. I mean, there's an entire Wong Kar Wai romance in that movie. As you already pointed out. Hot dog fingers? What are we talking about? Sally Hawkins fucked a fish monster

and that's the one best picture. But that was more, there was a lot of attention just paid on that one relationship, you know? Like,

that was, and there was a lot of attention paid on the mother daughter relationship but like you liking shape of water more than everything i don't like shape of water he fucked a fish i don't care about animals you know he fucked a fish he fucked a fish you know whatever i don't care michael shannon also fucked a fish in that movie he would have you know and it wasn't set at a carnival, but it kind of looked like it, and you know how I feel about carnies. No, but it's just, so there's a lot of things happening.

What a beautiful performance from Richard Jenkins in that film. Okay. I like Guillermo del Toro. Okay, well, I'm going to read the rankings that we've settled on, which nobody seems really content with, but that's life.

Number 10, Women Talking. Number 9, Avatar, The Way of Water. Number 8, Triangle of Sadness. Number 7, Elvis. Number 6, All Quiet on the Western Front. Number 5, Tar. Number 4, The Fablemans. Number 3, Top Gun Maverick. Number 2, Banshees of Inisharen. Number 1, Everything Everywhere All at Once. You okay with this? Yeah, I think it's a decent indicator of where things are right now. As you were reading them, I was like, oh, I bet the Fablemans is going to win. Because I was just thinking about the last shot of the Fablemans.

And that ending, Sean and I saw it together and we turned to each other and we were like, huh, you know, so can't you just see a bunch of people just watching the Fablemans and being like, that rascal Steven Spielberg. The horizon line. You know? I feel like Green Book Academy. Yeah.berg. The horizon line. You know? I feel like Green Book Academy. Yes. Yes.

The family wins. But we're not in a Green Book Academy anymore, you know? That's true. You know what else has a killer ending? Tar. So there. Can Barbarian win on a write-in vote? Can it happen?

You know what you should do is that you should just you should call edward norton right now and you should be like i don't have the man's phone number so here's the thing about the academy rules is that you can win best picture on a write-in vote so i'm gonna need you to start the barbarian campaign now so and you just do it for however many weeks this is what the edward norton tweet would say I don't usually do this kind of thing and I'm not well known for recommending films like this one. But when I saw Barbarian,

I saw the future of horror and the future of cinema. If you want to support a more green Hollywood future, vote Barbarian. This is a good bet. On March 6th. When does voting startth I don't know

when does voting start I don't know we should probably find that out as the people who host a podcast okay Joe

hey thanks so much what's going on on the ringerverse what are you guys doing oh what a thrill and a joy to be ramping up for Ant-Man Quantumania

with a villain ranking that we're doing oh shit we're also ramping up who is the villain oh it's Kang right it's Kang I was gonna ask

whether it was physics. Was the real villain the physics all along? No, no, no, no, no. The real villain is time. Okay. Well, time is not a dimension, but it could be part of physics.

So there we go. It's an existing property. What is it? What's time? Save it for Amanda's JMO spinoff, Science Corner. Amanda, season three.

So, you know, we're doing a lot of prep episodes. And you're also recapping Deep Diving with the Last of Us. Over on the Prestige TV podcast feed. Yeah. That's definitely where that episode should be going. Not on the Ring of Verse. Yep. Amanda, where will we find you?

Here? Talking to you about bullshit? That is certainly accurate to some extent. One thing that is not bullshit is Magic Mike's Last Dance. The new film from one of our most beloved filmmakers, Steven Soderbergh. Closing out the Magic Mike trilogy. So we're going to go see that movie together tonight. We are.

And then we're going to talk about that film and all the Magic Mike films and all the Steven Soderbergh films, which should be very exciting. So by your Return of the King logic, is this going to win all the Oscars next year? God willing. For the trilogy?

God willing, Steven rises once more. Thanks so much to Kaya McMullen for her production support on today's episode. Thanks, of course, to Bobby Wagner. He's our producer on the show. Stay tuned. We'll be magic-miking soon. See you then.