The Big Picture - Final 2025 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Should Win

Episode Date: February 27, 2025

Sean and Amanda discuss a bit of news about the 2026 movie slate (1:00), then launch headfirst into their final predictions for the 2025 Oscars’ winners, losers, and everything in between (15:00). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Senior Producer: Bobby Wagner Video Producer: Jack Sanders Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Bill Simmons letting you know that we are covering the White Lotus on the Prestige TV podcast and the Ringer TV YouTube channel every Sunday night this season with Mallory Rubin and Joanna Robinson. Also on Wednesdays, Rob Mahoney and I will be sort of diving deep into theories and listener questions so you can watch that on the Ringer YouTube channel and also on the Spotify app. Subscribe to the Prestige podcast feed. Subscribe to the Ringer TV YouTube channel. And don't forget, you can also watch these podcasts

on Spotify. Wait, Lotus, let's go. This episode is brought to you by Missouri. Missouri does fine jewelry differently. They're all about buying for yourself, where you decide the occasion. Everything is handcrafted with quality, craftsmanship, and responsible sourcing in mind. So these are pieces you can feel good about in more ways than one. Plus, there are so many designs you can mix and match to create a stack for every look. Shop online at majore.com or in-store today.

or in store today. I'm Sean Fennessy. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is the Big Picture, a conversation show about our final Oscar predictions. It's almost here. Just a few more days. The Academy Awards, the 97th Academy Awards are happening on Sunday. Reminder, speaking of Sunday, we 240 somethings striving valiantly to make content will be going live on the YouTube platform. Yeah. To have a discussion at 2.30 PM Pacific, 5.30 PM Eastern time. I won't be discussing central time or mountain time.

We're gonna talk about- 4.30, 3.30. Got it. Okay, good. We're gonna talk about our predictions. It's an international academy and a big world. What is, so New Zealand time, what will we be for? Plus 16 hours, I think. Okay, and Sri Lanka, what time will it be? So that's like, it's like 16 minus, 24 minus 16 is eight, so no, but, okay. I can't do that. In South Africa, what time will it be? I don't have my world clock app right now

because I put my phone away. In Latvia, the folks at home who will be rooting for the film Flow, what time will it be? I think it'll be the middle of the night based on my understanding of the, you know, it could be nine, 10, 11, the further east you go. What about the Parisians rooting for Emilia Perez? Okay, so it starts 2.30 plus, I think it's 9.

Okay. So 11.30. 11.30 p.m., Parisians, tune in. We'll be on YouTube talking about what's going to come in the Academy Awards and just some other stuff. Yeah. I might have a drink. I might have a glass of brown liquor.

You were saying that we're going live on the YouTube platform. What if I go rogue at some point and just go live on Instagram, solo? Whilst we're on YouTube? No, I think probably like during a commercial or something. I would welcome that. I think that's great. I don't have the password, so we'd have to arrange that. What about on your personal account? Oh, well, I mean, I guess I could just go at my personal account.

Is it important for you to have a lot of followers on Instagram? No. Do you not want them? It's not that I don't want them. I want everyone to behave. Okay, but that's not really part of the equation here. You're on social media.

That's true. No, I'm just, I'm doing it for me. Okay. And I'm doing it because I'm lightly addicted to Instagram. Mm-hmm. And lightly addicted to buying things. But, you know, we all have our vices, we're all coping. Well, the more followers you get,

the more influential power you'll have. I do understand that. I'm comfortable with the level of power that I have right now. I know that's not true. I can confirm that is not the case. I don't think it reflects well on me to want more, you know? I'd like to tell you about my power. My power was expressed clearly by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences this morning

when they announced that on the telecast, they will be showing clips. Did you see this news? I read a very long and verbose interview with the producers, but somehow my eyes glazed over for the clips. I'm happy for you. They also, Poin Blake, were like, it's going to be three and a half hours. Did they say that? Yes, they did.

They're like, we know you want it to be three. It's just we can't do it. It'll be three and a half. That's great. Why not four? Because we want people to watch. And also because I'd like to go to bed before 2 AM. Well, they'll get to see clips.

Obviously, I've been banging the drum for clips for a very long time. I'm very excited about that. A lot of great performances this year. I look forward to seeing them shown on television. A lot of movies that a lot of people haven't seen. So I think this is helpful in that respect. I, you know, I don't think, well, I do think that sometimes bullying works. I don't think that bullying in this particular case worked.

I think what happened is they had announced this plan to have the Fab Five come on and introduce each nominee and talk about their work. And then the Carla Sofia Gascon thing happened. And nobody wanted to do that. Who would want to do that? Who would want to come up and advocate for that performance? I think a little challenging now.

I saw that Carla Sofia Gascon will be in attendance on Netflix's dime. Okay, they can afford it. I mean, they definitely can. I just, you know, we have been noting their spending pullback in that area, and so now they are living up to their commitment, I guess. You think she's gonna win?

What if she does? I would say crazier things have happened, but that would probably be the craziest thing that has ever happened. No, I still think Will Smith slapping Chris Rock is the craziest thing that happened, but that could be, it could be top five. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I think there was a streaker live on stage at the Academy Awards, we had the moonlight mix-up. Yeah, they announced the wrong winner, but I think that you would get... Session Littlefeather accepting on Marlon Brando's behalf. That's why I said top five. Yeah, which that's a good episode for us. The reaction faces, though, if she wins,

I think would rival the, like, near classic Moonlight Lala, like, audience reaction shot. It's like, Busy Phillips, Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, everyone, like... You know, it's a really, really good photo. Will Busy Phillips be in attendance this year? As, because it probably depends on if Michelle Williams is invited, right? Yes. I don't know. I like Busy Phillips.

She appeared in the film Mean Girls in 2024. She did, yeah, but she lives in New York now, so I don't know whether she's gonna make the... The dividing line? Well... Anyone living in New York is not invited to the Oscars? I assume like someone has to fly her in probably and then if she's not promoting a movie, I don't know. Mean Girls is not nominated at the 97th.

No, it's the stunning turn of events. Wait, I wanted to ask you something. I've been thinking about 2026 a lot, right? You're very mad that we're not going to Cannes together this year, right? You want us to go to Cannes. I do. I will go to Cannes in 2026, right?

I've said I'll commit it to that. You said that last year. I'm committing to it. I think 2026 should be maybe not a full bucket list year for the show, but we should change things up. And now I'm like, we've never been to the Academy Awards. I always said I would never go. Yeah.

But I'm thinking about 75-year-old Sean. And will I go to my grave? What about 100? What if I turn 100? No, the 100th Academy Awards. We're pretty close. Okay, that would be 2028? Yeah.

I make no promises on this being here in 2028. Yeah, I'll be 46. I would like to be in Barbados in 2026. I mean, I would like to be in Barbados right now.. I mean, I would like to be Barbados right now. Get that Instagram follower count up and it can happen. It can happen to you. That is really what I want. What I want is to have enough.

Here's how many Instagram followers I want that I can get like free and or heavily discounted rates at luxury hotels. OK, because that's just the prices are out of reach. You know? I just, it's really, it's too much. I just, have you seen what Rosewood is charging? It's, it's. I don't even know what Rosewood is.

Yes, you do. It's a chain. You know, they have the Miramar in Santa Barbara that's like literally right on the highway and costs $5,000 a night for like a starting room. And that's where like Bob Iger had one of his like Disney summits before he came back. And then there's one in Hawaii that I'd like to go to. But again, I'm just I'm just one woman with not enough Instagram followers.

I'm not only not in that stratosphere. Yeah. I'm not even pining for that stratosphere. You do like a luxury hotel though. Yeah. So wouldn't it be nice to be able to go? They've got kids clubs. I do. Yeah. So wouldn't it be nice to be able to go? They've got kids clubs. Sure.

So then you can say, hey, Alice, here's a nice day camp. I've stayed at the Four Seasons a handful of times in my life. Every time I had an amazing experience. It's not. It's hard to pull off. So getting discounts, I get it. That's what I'm saying. Yeah.

You mentioned Barbados, and I immediately went to Resort Life, which is where I'd like to go. I think you just have names at your fingertips that I'm not really... Sure. Well, there is... The Rosewood Kona. I'm interested if anybody would like to host me.

And I love... In Hawaii. Yeah. And I love to post on Instagram. So, I just like... You will whore yourself out for high quality... I'll host a conference. I will do whatever. Settle down, settle down.

Do they need a screening room? I will program that shit all summer long. Okay. Yeah, you know. You are available to future partners is what you're saying. Yeah, but I do have to get more Instagram followers for that. So that can be one of our 2026 goals along with Cannes, Venice.

Or are you thinking about it for, is it percolating for this year? Well, well. We were texting about this. What's, what do we think is happening at Venice? Well, there are rumors. We know nothing. We don't know anything. You know, my, my Italian peers have luped me in on this yet.

Peers. But there are rumors that because of the August 9th schedule date for the release of the Paul Thomas Anderson film and how close that is to the date of the Venice Film Festival, that things might get pushed a little bit and there might be a Venice debut for PTA this year. Plus a new Brady Corbet film, possibly, at Mona Festival. Yes. Maybe.

So that's more reason to potentially go to Venice. Obviously that's where The Brutalist had its big debut. Certainly did. I have to buy a ticket to the Telluride Film Festival Saturday morning. Okay. That's when they go on sale. So I'm going to buy the ticket. Okay.

Just because if you don't, you could be SOL. Then you don't have it. Yeah. So I'm going to buy it. I was thinking about just applying for a Venice credential for you. That's very sweet. Because normally when I, you have to have an assigning letter and I always write your assigning letter for me and then I'll write in an assigning letter for you.

And then we can just send it on our way. So in the PTA arc, obviously we had a show when Lickrush Pizza came out, but it was sort of at the tail end of a COVID period. It was. And that film was maybe not like the grand scale kind of statement. It was a much smaller, more personal movie, more episodic. People haven't really seen me kind of go full crazy. Paul Thomas Anderson.

Well. This movie presents an opportunity to do so. It does. I think it's a hundred and fifty million dollar action epic. Started rereading Vineland, which has been, uh, that's it's just, every pension book is just a lot of book, you know, after, after 18 pages, you're like, I have consumed a lot of information here. Especially those of us who aren't regularly reading fiction. Yes.

Sean Fennisey. Yes, very true. Um, I've read a plenty of Pynchon in my life, but, uh, it's been a while since I consumed it. So you started now for an August. Pretty much. That was part of my thinking. So yeah, maybe Venice is in our future.

I don't know. I'm thinking about it. The clarion call of Paul Thomas. Think about how happy I would be. I know, I know. So that's... The one thing that really bums me out is like, I'm not going for one movie or six movies.

I'm usually going for 22 movies. Okay, well you could do that. But I can't go for 11 days. Nobody cares about this. That's true. I think you could probably do 11 days in 11 movies in six days. It just wouldn't... I don't know if you would see every single hit at...

Or like every single important movie at the Venice Festival because they do ration them out one day at a time. Like I missed Hitman. Oh, right. Because it was just... It was too late. And I had to like extend my trip in order to be able to see Priscilla there, which was worth it. Okay. Well, we'll come back to that in the future.

Okay, so where's Venice this year maybe, but Cannes and possibly the Oscars next year. Let's just think about it. The problem with going to the Oscars, and maybe if the Academy is listening to this show, is there a world where there's a space for us to record our episode immediately after the telecast? Right. That's really the thing that we don't have. But there's a space for us to record our episode immediately after the telecast. That's really the thing that we don't have. You know, like our friends at the Ringer NFL show over the years and at the Ringer Fantasy Football Show too have found ways to record on site after the Super Bowl. It didn't make sense to send people to the Super Bowl for what we do at the Ringer on

the audio side, but now we have a solution. Can the Academy help us create a solution? We can take over the Johnny Rockets in the mall, directly adopt the Dolby. That's not a bad idea to build a set. I think it costs a lot to rent that space. Can I tell you something? Just absolutely loved Johnny Rockets as a child.

I have not been in 30 years, but I listen. Again, it's just like a 50s style diner. Yeah, and like a Smashburger, if they're looking, yeah, and like a smash burger. If they're looking for partners. You. You have a very basic taste when it comes to that kind of dining experience. I say that with no malice. Oh, as opposed to very-

You don't like flourishes. You want something down the middle. I do not have a lot of patience for, quote unquote, fine dining. Right. High cuisine. Yeah. I think it relates in a lot of the ways to my taste in art and film as well, where the more yes chef you have in it, and I love seasons one and two of The Bear. But the more it becomes some sort of like deep psychological, you know, expression of self and also the more athletic the cooking becomes,

the more I'm like, yeah, okay. You want to just be served what you want. Or I do like more, I like simpler, rustic, you know, less fussy cooking. Fussiness, I just get out of my way. I think Johnny Rockets, I think rustic. I think materials cold from the earth. This is because I grew up in Atlanta in 1990,

you know, and I like fucking. Wow, how old are you? Okay, let's predict Oscars. We have a lot of categories to go through. We have 23 categories to go through today. 2026 is gonna be exciting, but let's not let 2025 get away from us. Now historically we both do pretty well with our predictions. There's a lot of newcomers to this show. This show has kind of changed and evolved over the years.

We're on YouTube. We're soon to be on the Spotify video platform. Hello to everyone who's just joining us. We've been predicting Academy Awards for seven years now on the Spotify video platform. Hello to everyone who's just joining us. We've been predicting Academy Awards for seven years now on the program. This year is a little bit flummoxing in about five categories for me. And I still don't totally have my head around

where I've, I have a lack of confidence, I think is what I'm trying to say. How do you feel? I think it's brave of you to say that out loud and we're proud of you. Thank you. And maybe that can be another one of our goals in 2026 is accepting our emotions. I've been taught that I'm supposed to teach my toddler, like, it's okay to feel disappointment.

It's okay to feel nervous. So it's okay, Sean, to feel nervous. Do you feel that it's okay for you to feel nervous? No, but I do. I feel okay about them. We always get to this point where we think that we know, we think we have a pretty good handle. And despite the uncertainty of this year and the changing nature of the race, like, I think I have a sense. Like, there is a trend pattern in most categories. I agree with you that it feels a little less certain and way more likely that a surprise can happen. At this point, I always find

myself overthinking it and you're very prone to this as well because we've been talking about it for so long, like we're so certain or there is among like pundits and people who spend too much time on this such like a consensus that we start looking for the angles. And I wonder if we're gonna be both a little extra susceptible to that right now because we're like prepped for some surprises. So now we're turning like over a few more rocks than we need to.

You're right. What you could do here is you could end up with like a 12 out of 23 or 11 out of 23 showing because it feels very coin flippy in five or six races. And then if you take a couple of other chances beyond those races, you might be in trouble. So let's just talk through it. I have arranged this in a very specific order.

Hopefully it's an interesting order for the listeners at home. The big races will be at the end of this podcast. You'll have to listen all the way to the end. Uh, but let's start with three of the feature focused categories. Animated feature film, documentary feature film, and international feature film as a starting point. So the nominees for animated feature film, which we have known for the most part,

and even if you go back to our big Oscar bet, we were pretty close on these way back when, include Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromit, Vengeance, Most Foul, and The Wild Robot. This really feels like a two-film race. Yes. And those two films, I think, represent two very different ideas of what movies are right now and maybe what they can be. You've got a classic big DreamWorks production and adaptation of a beloved children's book in The Wild Robot. And you've got this small Latvian film that came out of nowhere. Flow, a wordless sort of narrativeless exploration of existence.

And capybaras. Capybaras, we got dogs, we got birds. Yeah, but it's like, when I saw the capybara, because I have, I've seen all of these films now, and when the capybaras showed up, I was like, oh, okay, and the Oscar goes to Flo. Is that, so that's how you're feeling? And I do actually, it's a combo of, I think people,

you know, capybaras are an internet meme type thing. But I'm really going with last year's results where Boyle and the Heron won over Spider-Verse. And I, that is obviously a little bit a reflection on the respect for Miyazaki and the international nature of the voting body. But Flow is also nominated in international feature. It is. So it certainly has a voting block.

And also if you think about all the people who are just turning things on for 20 minutes and going about their day, you can appreciate Flow. Listen, I don't condone it, but that is how some people vote, especially in the, you know, below the line categories. No question. People will vote for things that they don't watch. This is one of the single hardest categories for me to pick. And if you told me that the results were 51% to 49%, I would not be surprised.

I wrote down Flow yesterday and I'm going with the Wild Robot today. So this will be a key distinction point between us. I think that The Wild Robot is also very strong. It has nominations for best score and for best sound. It's extremely unusual for an animated film to get a best sound nomination. So that's other branches outside of the animation group that are going for this movie. The other thing to consider, Chris Sanders is a four-time nominee. He's a legend in the animation group that are going for this movie. The other thing to consider Chris Sanders is a four time nominee. He's a legend in the animation community.

His films are now being made into live action movies, like 20 years later. He's really, really well liked. Flow is fantastic. They're both great. They both, for me, were both like top 25 movies of the year pretty easily. I've devoted a lot of time to both filmmakers on the show. of the year pretty easily. I've devoted a lot of time to both filmmakers on the show. I really like them both.

Even in the should-win answer, it's kind of a coin flip for me. I like them both. It's a very good category this year. This isn't my favorite Adam Elliott movie, the memoir of a snail director, but that's a good film. The Aardman, Wallace and Cromwell movies are always good. Inside Out 2, OK, it's pretty good. Obviously a huge box office success.

But I'm going Wild Robot and I'm gonna say should win Wild Robot. I will go with Wild Robot and should win also. Even though I texted you that I don't like how the animals move in that movie. But otherwise, I know from a pure animation standpoint, but everything else is quite beautiful. I cried, you know, I'm a human being. Even though the Wild Robot is not. Or really anyone else in the film.

She evinces incredibly human qualities. Like caretaking. Something you're also thinking about every day. I think this isn't going to be indicative of anything else that's going to happen for the rest of the night. But that international thing that you're talking about, if a film like this wins, to me that will signal something bigger about the animation races in the future and maybe even this particular awards body because Miyazaki is Miyazaki. He'd already won before. He is an actual legend. He is in a conversation the last 30 years for the greatest filmmakers in the eyes of many people who've worked in the business.

Gintz of Eladis is like, nobody ever heard of that person until 12 months ago. So, but this is a movie that did well, it can. It won international feature at the end of the spirits. It did. I think it's a really close race. Interesting that we're split. Okay, let's go to documentary feature film.

Do you wanna read the nominees? Okay, I'd love to. Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Kudeta, Sugarcane. Okay. So you've just caught up with a lot of these films. Yes. Anything jump out to you about them? Um, uplifting as always.

Um, no, I'm just like, it's, it's tough and they're all like extremely important issues, but if you do them back to back as I did, like very heavy stuff. It was interesting to me that a majority of the films, four out of five are, they're not autobiography, but they are self-filmed and kind of, they are again, not quite first person, but the subjects are capturing a lot of the footage themselves and it is being told through the lens of their experience as opposed to as an outside observer.

I thought this was a very good observation. And I think in some cases, it's not even whether that works better than others. That's just like the style. And I think all four films are very upfront about that. But that becomes text in a couple of them in interesting ways. And in a couple, it just is the way that the footage was achieved. So, but I didn't think that was notable, especially when, you know, you always talk so much about music documentaries and art documentaries and everything where the subject is like much more involved now.

And that just seems to be the way that documentaries are getting made. I think it's a way that you can authenticate the story so it does not feel like an outside observer has parachuted into a situation. That used to be something that was celebrated, I think, about documentaries. You would stumble upon something in the world, I don't know, I think of like,

Harlan County, USA, the Barbara Copple movie. She was not from those coal mining towns, but she went and visited those spaces and effectively told those stories with a level of objectivity, but also a passion about the subject matter. These stories, Black Box Diaries, is a story about sexual assault directed by the woman who was assaulted.

Yes. Turning her film into a kind of a, almost like a whodunit, you know, like an exploration. Right, well, she's also, she's a journalist as well. So she is investigating and trying to... She is documenting and making a documentary as a documentarian who is also the subject. Yes. Porcelain War is a film about Ukrainian artists

who are subject to the toll of the war with Russia. No Other Land, of course, is about Israeli occupation in Gaza and the destruction of the space in Gaza. Sugarcane, likewise, is about indigenous peoples who were, you know, disappeared in the face of this, like, Catholic mandatory schooling circumstance. And then Soundtrack to Okudeta is this outside, kind of like more of an essayistic experiment. It's like Adam Curtis. Yeah, idea, focus, slice of history.

I will say, I liked that movie very much, but it was billed as a Cold War thriller, which respectfully you can't say that to a John Lecrae stan. And then I sat home and I was like, oh, I see what you mean, but this is, you know, this is, it's not Tinker Tailor. No, I think maybe just about... It's very interesting. Sort of like the intersecting modes of power related to Lumumba's assassination.

You certainly has in the text that thing, but to me it's more of a music film in many ways. Like the way the music was used or abused in the way of like international power. Anyway, this is is for me personally, even though I agree through that all these stories are very important, just not my favorite collection of documentaries that we've seen.

I think this branch is in a really interesting space right now. It's obviously, it seems to be actively working to sort of zag against what the popular consensus is around consumption around documentaries. It seems to be very mission oriented. And so, no other land has probably the film that has made the most noise. Yes.

It has won a lot of precursors. It is still not have US distribution, but people are still seeing it like it is still being shown in movie theaters, but it doesn't have like an actual company that has signed on to be its official distributor. It's also a movie that is going to be very divisive among people in the academy. We saw the aftermath of Jonathan Glazer's speech at last year's academy awards. We sure did. Where he spoke about this conflict and he angered a lot of Jewish members of the academy. So I find this to be a tough category to predict. Right. You know, I think as Bobby pointed out when we first started talking about No Other Land,

despite it being about the most hot button issue or one of like the most divisive within the economy and in the world at large, political conflicts in the world right now, it is really, I mean, I guess it is political in that anything that has the words like Israel, Gaza, West Bank, like is political, but it is just a documentation of what is happening. It's a human story. Yeah, and it is, again, it is mostly filmed by one of the directors documenting what's happening.

I think a lot of it was first on social media and now that's kind of like being pulled together in a narrative way, which is I think another reason that you have these first person documentaries is because we're just all on our phones documenting things right now. So I know what you mean, but to me it is different even than like the Jonathan Glazer speech in the way that things are presented. It is very much like here is what happened. Right. I am choosing it to win. As am I?

Somewhat reluctantly because I don't know how divisive it will be. I know that it's a movie that a lot of people have heard of and that's essentially why I'm... I know I completely agree and it has been picking up every award and then you just wonder how many other movies people will watch. You know? I... let's not be surprised by a porcelain war upset. I would not either.

One of the other reasons and I mean this you know this is all so craven and gross and you're just like comparing like total tragedies year by year but I'm like well last year was 20 years in Mario poll so are they gonna vote for like a different tragedy this year? Which is just like, I, but it is how people think. I know. But that's just like, I, I hate myself for having that thought in my head. Yes. Uh, it's very silly also to say what should win, but I would choose soundtrack

to a coup d'etat just because I think formally it's a more interesting experiment in trying to tell a historical story. I liked, I, I mean, all of the issues are important, you know, so again, we're not voting for issues. I liked Black Box Diaries as a, you know, in many ways it's like, it's not Japanese, she said, but it is, you know, investigating that legal system, that journalists, that media ecosystem, that legal system, that journalists, that media ecosystem, how like a rape case would be explored and covered in that country. So I was like, this is interesting.

I kept kind of watching it. And then the controversies around it in Japan are also kind of interesting. And again, I do not speak or read Japanese. So I was reading like translations. I have no idea whether I'm right or not. But the use of the very, there's some very galling, like absolutely horrifying video camera footage that is used. And then who says that's allowed to be used and where and

how and how that's affected. Yeah, is, yes, is, um, was fascinating. So, I, like, I enjoyed, check out Black Box Aries if you haven't seen it. I think it's on Paramount Plus right now. Yeah, enjoy is like not the word. It's a very, it's a very tough. Yes, check it out. Um, all right.

International feature film. This was a category that was considered settled for about three months. Mm-hmm. The nominees are I'm Still Here, The Girl with the Needle, Emilia Perez, The Seat of the Sacred Fig, and Flow. Of course, Emilia Perez was by far the front runner, the most nominated front at the Academy Awards this year.

The scandal that hit about five or six weeks ago has completely torpedoed its chances in a lot of categories. That doesn't mean it's done here. I agree with you, Sean. But I'm not choosing it. You're going to go with the Brazilians? I'm going to take it. I'm still here.

I think that you're right. Honestly, part of my... I'm really sorry to generalize with a country as historically rich and varied as Brazil but like they like capybaras so much that I've been that capybaras are native to Brazil. So I'm like, maybe flow. And then here, I think you're right that I'm still here really could pull it out.

I mean, it has and best actress nomination and a best picture nomination. So in the event that anybody who looks at the Amelia Parris story has an awareness of it, feels that it has become a nuclear circumstance, that this feels like the next best place to go. Now, Flow is beloved. I think there's a lot of admiration

for the Seed of the Sacred Fig, though it didn't perform as well as some people thought it might throughout this season. But I think the campaign's been strong. I think Fernanda Torres has campaigned well. You know, for me, I find that movie to be very traditional. It feels very much to me like a 1985 sort of Academy Award nominee. It's not a bad film by any means, but it felt somewhat rote.

And I know people are mad, because there's a huge passion for that movie that I didn't like it that much, but I just didn't really connect with it. And, but I know that I'm people are mad, because there's a huge passion for that movie that I didn't like it that much, but I just didn't really connect with it. And, but I know that I'm in the minority, at least among people who have checked it out. No, I liked it. I, as I was falling asleep last night, very, very cool thought process. I realized that we forgot the ending of I'm Still Here, for best ending in our Alternative Academy Awards.

I didn't love it. Well, I just liked that it was for Nana Montenegro, you know? Yeah, sure. That was cool. The connectivity with her mom and former best actress nominee. I mean, I agree that the third act, I would like to know more about this, what everything

that happened in the third act. I'm not sure why. It kind of yada yadaed the like, she became a national hero. I was like, wait. Sure. And like, activist for indigenous rights. Why was this so slow for the first hour and a half?

No, I know. Though I have to say, like, their home in Rio looked fantastic. You know? The stuff that worked—I was just talking with Justin Sales about this yesterday. The film had me the first 45 minutes. The family story all the way up until the inciting incident, really, of their family story was very compelling. It seems cool if you could own a house, a block from the most famous beach in the world, and just walk back and forth.

Like, nice life, I guess. Put it on your 2026 bucket list. Anyway. So you're choosing I'm still here as well? No. I'm doing Amelia Press. Really? I think it's a hang on. Oh, interesting.

OK. I mean, listen. Like we just said, Carlos Cascagon will be at the Oscars. Netflix is paying for it. Like, I think she's not going to win. I don't think it's going to win Best Picture. But in the same way that we were all, like Villegas-Gon will be at the Oscars. Netflix is paying for it. Like, I think she's not gonna win. I don't think it's gonna win Best Picture. But in the same way that we were all, like, so befuddled by, like, why does everyone like this so much?

You know, I think... I think people will be like, sure, in this category. Yeah, I liked it. I don't really care. Interesting. Did you end up watching The Girl with the Needle? I did last night. That was my last thing that I watched, LOL. What did you think of that? I mean, it's pretty, I mean, well made, impressive. Yeah, beautiful photography.

You know me and Carnies. Okay. So... Got it. That's my only issue. Uh, okay. So that's, so we split on two out of three so far. Yeah, who do you think should win? Flo.

You think Flo? Yeah. I'm gonna go with Sita the Sacred Fig. Okay. Yeah, who do you think should win? Flo. You think Flo? Yeah. I'm gonna go with C to the Sacred Fig. Okay. Which, you know, should literally be 40 minutes shorter than it is. But I thought especially in all of the family stuff and the setup and like the first hour rips, in my opinion.

Man, I really, I struggled with this one. I, another movie where I'm like, the story is more important than it is interesting to me personally. Well, I just, you know... Who doesn't like a Chekhov's gun? You know? Yeah, but like, it's literally a gun. I know.

It's like, it's not... Like, in the first 20 minutes, I was like, okay, I know what this is gonna be. You know, I think, obviously, because of the story of what Mohammed Rusaleff had to go through to make that film, and he's been exiled now, and all of that is remarkable. You know, the same is true for the story

that Walter Salas is telling in I'm Still Here. These are incredibly relevant cultural events. I would agree with you that Hours Two and Three meander. Um... And I have some questions about everyone's strategy in the ending, but we're not doing rewatchables right now. Like, where are they all going? You want to do like an all 22 tape breakdown

of the ending of the Sea of the... Don't spoil it. Don't spoil it for people who haven't seen it. Why is that the strategy? If you haven't seen the Sea of the Sacred Fig, we'll probably never talk about it again on the show because I didn't love it that much. But whatever. Okay. Uh, well, we've already split on two out of three

and we haven't even gotten to the shorts. Okay. I don't even know much. But whatever. Okay. Well, we've already split on two out of three and we haven't even gotten to the shorts. Okay. I don't even know what to do with these. I think I said I only liked one. That's not entirely true. I liked a few more than one, but this is not my favorite crop of films. You have called to abolish the shorts

from the telecast in the past. Listen, that, I mean, that's true. I should say it with my whole chest. New award ceremony. It's a different with my whole chest. New award ceremony. It's a different thing. It's a new award ceremony. Short films do matter. They just don't really make a lot of sense

in the context of this award show, which we're on the same page about. So let's go through that. And they and the voters end up doing this, like the voters and I end up doing the same thing every time, which is just like speed watching all of them. If you even watch them at all which I did But you do wonder how many voters are gonna go through all 15 even though they're made available on the platform

This is the other thing They're hard to see they're getting they're getting better Many of them are available to rent on like Vimeo or YouTube now though It's not clear to me whether that money is going to I'm not really sure what that distribution is about I mean they show them in a select number of like 800 theaters every year We live on we all live on the internet people are watching this on the damn internet You know put it on YouTube and put a rent button by it like I just don't under honestly It's a good it's a good call. Yeah, they should find a way to make them more

If we're gonna do this I think they should probably get more aggressive with this at the shortlisting stage. Once the films are shortlisted, all of those movies should be made publicly available. There's a million reasons why that's not the case, just like we can't get Anor to be streaming before the world... You know, like not enough people have seen it for this to have been a meaningful moment.

But like if we're gonna do this and we're still gonna have these at the Oscars under the guise of it's important to honor emerging filmmakers and like the next generation, then make the shit available. Yeah, emerging filmmakers like Wes Anderson. Sure. OK, best animated short.

Why don't you read the nominees once you've finished sucking down that giant water bottle. Hydration is important. I agree. Beautiful men in the shadow of the Cyprus, magic candles, wander to wander, and yuck! Exclamation point. I chose yuck. I don't feel great about it. Shadow of the Cypress, Magic Candles, Wander to Wonder, and Yuck! Exclamation point.

I chose Yuck. I don't feel great about it. I don't, I only really clicked with one of these and I tell you it was not Beautiful Men. Okay. I didn't like that. Which is about three men who go to Turkey to get a hair transplant. Yeah.

Which of course is all the rage now. Shout out to Van Lathan, you know, who's had some amazing experiences with hair transplants. But not in Turkey, right? Not in Turkey. I thought Yuck was very sweet, and I thought it had a nice, like, animation flourish. The lips was, like, very memorable.

It's also fairly short. Yeah, these were all pretty short. They're, you know, in the Shadow of the Cypress is probably the heaviest of the five. Yes. And, but not the one that I clicked with the most. The one I liked the most was Wander to Wonder. Well, I've picked that to win. You have.

Okay, interesting. It won the BAFTA and the Annie. Okay. It could win. It's not, it doesn't really have like a strong message. That's true. And I tend to look for message't really have like a strong message. That's true. And I tend to look for message movies in the short films. Okay.

I tend to look for precursors. Okay. Fair enough. But I liked Wander to Wonder. That was my favorite by far. That animation style, the tone, I enjoyed it. It felt like an Aardman kind of film. I liked Magic Candies.

Yeah, it was sweet. I mean, you know, I liked it better than Yuck, which I thought was too sentimental. Okay. I don't really have a ton more to say about the animated short. Best documentary short. I have some things to say about this category. The nominees are Death by Numbers,

I Am Ready Warden, Incident, Instruments of a Beating Heart, and The Only Girl in the Orchestra. Your thoughts. I am going, I'm predicting I am ready, Warden, to win. I am as well. It is available on Paramount Plus, in addition to being available on the Academy site. And I do think visibility is important.

It is also a recognizable documentary, accessible documentary format, as opposed to incident, which I think should win, but I think will be difficult for most voters firing it up. I mean, it is difficult. It is absolutely... It incident uses police body cam footage and security cam footage to recreate and not to recreate but to show and investigate the police, a police shooting of a civilian in Chicago in I believe 2018. And so you are watching that happen

over and over and over again from different angles. And it is horrifying and incredibly upsetting and obviously really important. But the first title card is... of just a heads up that much of the movie doesn't even have sound. So I think, you know, when we do these, we don't really think very highly of the voters, which is possibly unfair. But I do imagine that would be alienating to a lot of people turning

on their portal to try to get through these as soon as possible. The looking at my phone crowd won't connect with Incident as much. Yeah. Incident is also sponsored, purchased, whatever, by The New Yorker, who they do this a couple times every year and have them won yet? That's a very good question. I'm not sure of the data on that, but there's often a more high-minded and somewhat experimental. You know, Bill Morrison, the director of this film, is a brilliant documentarian. If folks haven't seen Dawson City, Frozen Time, his 2016 feature. It's a fascinating portrait of time lapsing. And he's very admired in the community, but I would not say that incident, which is by far my favorite of the five, screams Oscar winner, even though it's an

important issue. All of these films are about something important or powerful in their own way. You know, if the only girl in the orchestra won, I would not be surprised. Well, it's on Netflix. It's on Netflix. Netflix tends to do very well in the shorts categories. It is also, like I Am Ready Warden, a very recognizable portrait style short doc of a longtime member of the New York Phil Harmonic who plays double bass who is a ward under Leonard Bernstein and who is sort of a very retiring person but is also very charismatic in her own way and

it's just like a nice well-made movie and sometimes movies like that. Made by her niece. Made by her niece, yeah. Uses Beethoven's seventh very well just always glad to like that. Made by her niece. Made by her niece, yes. Yeah. Uses Beethoven's seventh very well. Just always glad to hear that. Last year there was a, what was the name of the short film about the instruments program in the public schools in Los Angeles that won? The Last Repair Shop.

The Last Repair Shop. Chris Bowers, also a nominee this year in this film. Yes, exactly. So you do wonder whether, and that was children, you know? That they were all over it. Well, and there's another... Instruments of a Beating Heart is also in that category. If one of the instruments of a beating heart wins,

maybe you and I should make a film about kids playing music. Could do well at the Academy Awards. I think I Am Ready Warden is a familiar kind of story about a person on death row, but told very differently. And the subject of the film, the man on death row, I would say comports himself differently in this experience than really what we've seen before. I think that's going to resonate with people.

Thought it was an interesting movie. This is not a bad crew. Death by Numbers I thought was the most traditional, though of course it's also about a very important incident, a young girl who survived a school shooting Who then becomes an advocate? In the proceedings of the trial of the school shooter who survived very rarely do school shooters actually survive that incident You know, it's a heavy category. Yes best live-action short

What are the nominees? Anuja, I'm Not a Robot, The Last Ranger. How are we saying alien or a- Alien, alien. Yeah, and The Man Who Cannot Remain Silent. Okay, I don't feel good about this, Zach, but I'm doing alien. You are? Yeah. Okay, I think it should win, so that would be exciting.

Do you? Well, listen, out of the category itself. I thought the man who could not remain silent was superior. That's the other one. I found alien to be incredibly stressful and affecting, and the, you know, the fake green grass, the camera going everywhere all the time. It's still very manipulative to me.

Well, it is, but so is the subject that it is portraying, which are the ICE, well, you wouldn't even call them raids, but the ICE tactic of arresting people who have come for their green card interview. And obviously that is incredibly relevant to what is happening all over this country right now in completely horrifying ways.

That's why I think you will win. I think you will be a vote for empathy in this experience. The man who could not remain silent, similarly is an international story and is a recreation of a 1993 massacre where Serbian paramilitary entered a Croatian train and removed people and murdered them for not having their papers in order or whatever.

But I thought the filmmaking was very good in that film and I'd like to see more from that director. I would also be very happy if that one. It was very good. So what are you picking? I'm going with Anuja. Okay. Because that's the celebrity-backed Netflix entrant.

I didn't think this was very good. I did not either, but that's not what we're picking here. Okay. That's who I'm predicting. You're saying because Mindy Kaling is the executive producer of this film. Yes, and it's available on Netflix. And it's about a small child and access to education. Two important things. Again, the ideas are important.

It's the execution that we quibble with. Okay, so Alien for me, Anuja for you. Mm-hmm. Your favorite category now, Original Song. Okay, yeah. The nominees in Original Song are El Mal from Emilia Perez. The Journey from the 6888,

which you and I just heard for the first time moments ago, Like a Bird from Sing Sing, Meet Camino from Emilia Perez, Never Too Late from Elton John Colon, Never Too Late. I'm doing it. I'm going Diane Warren. What? Let's get it over with. Let's get it the fuck over with.

Let's go. Wow. I mean, you have two Amelia Press, so some vote splitting. ["I love it, I love it." inaudible.] Netflix is behind A.N. Warren. Let's just like, you know, God bless them, we don't have to endure the performances this year. Let's just do it and be done, okay?

Yeah, definitely. Let's do it and be done. I'm choosing Elmal, I think Elmal will win. Maybe not. Maybe you're not. I love what you and be done. I'm choosing Elmal. I think Elmal will win. Maybe not. I love what you're about. You're bringing great energy. Great stuff. Like a Bird Should Win, but even that is not my favorite song in the world. This category stinks. Just get it. We should just junk it.

No, I think that we should let Dina Simone from Opus win. We should give Nile Rodgers an Oscar, and then if... Does he already have one? Give him another. He may, yeah. That Yeah, and and then we can joke it has Nile Rogers e got it. He probably doesn't have an Emmy, right? Let's see No, no Rogers doesn't have an Oscar, okay, maybe he doesn't have any of these awards I assume he has a Grammy Well, you never know what them it's very true. Okay well I'm choosing them all okay. It's very true. Okay. Well, I'm choosing Elmal.

Okay, you're probably right. Every indication, I think Elmal is a heavy favorite, so maybe this is a boring pick. Does Nautilus really not even have a Grammy? Oh, Grammy award. Hmm. With, but what is this? He's won these? Okay, he has an award.

Oh, forget Lucky. Oh, of course, naturally. All right. That makes sense. Okay, that's fine. They waited a solid 35 years to give him a Grammy. Anyhow, original score, next category. You wanna read the nominees? Sure.

Daniel Blumberg, the brutalist, Volker Bertelman, Conclave. Camille and Clément Ducol, Amelia Perez. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked. Chris Bowers, The Wild Robot. Now, I'm choosing Daniel Blumberg for The Brutalist. As am I. Some energy coming out that, you know,

maybe Conclave has more of a chance here than we'd realized. It's a good score. It is a pretty good score. It's a pretty good score for a thriller. Yeah. But you know, it's fine. It's no, the brutalist score. No.

Is the brutalist score too abstract, too odd? That kind of ticking clock quality that it has for the common voter. I don't really think so because it still has those, like it has that hook. Like literally it has that hook. Like literally it has a hook that is used majestically throughout the film and that opening.

So if they've only seen 20 minutes, then they got the gist. I don't really understand the Wicked nomination as I've said before. I don't understand how it's eligible, but June part two score was not. Agreed. Okay. Chris Bowers' score for the Wild Robot is quite good. I don't fully understand why Maren Morris's song from the Wild Robot didn't make the cut, but Chris Bowers did make the cut.

You would have to ask all of Diane Warren's friends. I mean, that's a factor for sure. That's a factor. All right. Well, we can just move on. I hope Daniel Bloomberg wins. So do I. That's one of my favorite fun scores.

I pick should win as well. In many years. And I think it will be remembered. Best sound. Now this category obviously a few years ago was collapsed. It was previously best sound editing and best sound mixing. Let me see if I can remember this correctly. Sound editing is more like for bullets and car crashes and sound mixing is usually more for like underwater

experiences and things like that. So sort of like creating a net more natural world experience. Like that. Just like that. Very good. Um, they're together now. That's great. We just so happen to have two musicals in this category.

The nominees are A Complete Unknown, Dune Part II, Amelia Perez, Wicked, and The Wild Robot. I guess you could make the case that there are three musicals if you include A Complete Unknown in that list. And yet, I'm selecting Dune Part II. As am I. I also think Dune Part II should win. I'm going with A Complete Unknown to win. Okay. Because they had all those live performances and I don't know, we like it. And my house. Are you confusing the quality of the performances with how good they are mixed? No, I'm just enjoying the whole thing. It was like going to a Bob Dylan concert.

I didn't get to go to one of those. I wasn't around. So thanks everyone. Are you offended when I start questions with, are you confused by? No, that's, I'm used to it. But I do think Dune Part II will win, because it's won almost every precursor, except for the Cinema Audio Society Award, which went to a complete unknown.

And yet you're not choosing it. I'm not, but you know. That's a very small body. As a member of the Cinema Audio Society, I'm pleased to say that we had the right, we had the right takes. That would be a good name for this show, the Cinema Audio Society, before we went on YouTube.

I'm sure they have it trademarked. Best visual effects. We're really plowing through the below the line categories right now. Now, this one is relevant because it is the only category in which you have not seen a film. Yes, I forgot to watch Alien Romulus.

So read the nominees. Alien Romulus, Better Man, Dune Part II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and Wicked. I've once again chosen Dune Part II. As have I, but there could be a spoiler. Do you think it could be Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes? I think so too. The Planet of the Apes films have never won in this category. They... So when I went to go see the film, when I screened it at Disney, they, before the film showed me a 10 minute compilation

of the mocap performances that the actors were doing, and then put a side by side of what the apes looked like In an effort to show the extraordinary lengths that they went to to build these worlds It's very impressive My big issue with that film is really the script. I don't I just don't think the story of that film is very strong Um, I think it's maybe not quite big enough to hit Interesting So sometimes when a movie like this

big enough to hit? Interesting. So sometimes when a movie like this rises above, it's usually a big, big blockbuster. And this was sort of a middle tier blockbuster. Whereas Dune Part II was above it in that respect. Plus Dune Part II

obviously, you know, has a best picture nomination. It has a wider breadth. It has it has legacy in this category as well, because it won for Dune Part I some years ago. When I went to see Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, I briefly fell asleep, so I think, you know,

it's very good what they do, you know, it's very convincing. But as you're right, it's very good what they do with the effects. But it was a boring one. You know those are not real monkeys, just to confirm. So Alien Romulus is a fascinating nomination here. It's the movie's only nomination. It's a movie that, you know, Chris and I did an episode about the film when it came out in August.

We both liked it. A pretty good deal as a blockbuster. I thought it was really entertaining. We're pretty picky about our Alien movies. I think the Aliens... Now you guys were open to it. We were open to it, yeah. The Alien stuff in the movie, the the xenomorph stuff, is very good.

The Ian Holm decision, the decision to... Ah, yes. ...to CGI recreate Ian Holm and his, you know, version of his, not his character, but a version of his character from the original Alien film was much maligned. It was one of the big things that I didn't like about the movie, Chris didn't like it about the movie. If you hear feedback about this movie, this comes up pretty quickly.

So it's surprising to me that it got love from this branch in the first place. I don't think it has any chance of winning. I would like to see more Fede Alvarez alien movies, though, and I think he's going to make another one. Well, that's great news. OK. Let's go to the next category, production design.

Here you see the production designer and the set decorator get recognized in this category. So the nominees are Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia for The Brutalist, Suzy Davies and Cynthia Slater for Conclave, Patrice Vermette and Shane Vue for Dune Part II, Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brenton-Rova for Nosferatu and Nathan Crowley and Lisa Sandalus for Wicked. You want to tell me what you're choosing?

I am choosing Wicked. I am as well. Can I tell you something about this? Yes. Production design innocent in the film Wicked. Okay. I actually think the production design is very good in this movie. It's the lighting that is the problem.

Okay. And so if this film were lit differently, for example, not backlit, for the majority of the film, so as to seem as though sun rays are beaming through on our characters, this world would have been more interestingly rendered. What about the color choices? Where are you...

That's not the production designer's job. Alright. They're working with the palette given to them. Yeah. Okay. I think they built a very credible world. That's not the production designer's job. All right. They're working with the palette given to them. Okay. I think they built a very credible world that could have been not credible. Did it look like with The Wizard of Oz? No.

Did that annoy me? Yes. But actually, I think their job was quite difficult. I think everybody in this list did a great job with what they were given. It's a good collection of nominees. I would agree with you. Obviously, I have a ton of admiration for what The Brutalist accomplished on an incredibly small budget.

Of course. And also the basic complication, like I'm not even complication, like the contradiction of the movie is that you are building a whole world about a building and the construction of a building that you do not have the budget or the means to build. And they do an incredible job representing absolutely all of it. I do think that the weird AI's nephew probably did not help them though.

Got in the sauce a little bit. Not really fair to Judy Becker in my opinion. I agree. Because it was a contractor and she did an amazing job. That's what I would pick to win. I think all of these are good. I have Should Win is Dune Park 2 because I think they're operating from a place of like complete and total imagination with what's on the page there, you know, and trying to

render some of these things as extraordinary. Now they have more advantages, this crew, because they have a huge budget relative to some of these other movies. Nosferatu is no slouch in this category. You know, the fact that it overperformed so hard in the below the line categories, I think it's like real admiration for it. I'd be very curious to see the voting totals

in this category. The Conclave is like beautifully done, both obviously the staging for all of like the, your Renaissance paintings, but also just the Vatican rooms. You know, like the weird hotel quality of all of those rooms is so texturally specific and evocative. Really, really well done.

Even Lawrence confronting Adeyemi in his room. You're in that room and you're like, that is definitely what those rooms look like. You believe the space so thoroughly. And you know, they like remade the Sistine Chapel in that movie, it's pretty crazy. Okay, a cool category, the Oscars. And, you know, they like remade the Sistine Chapel in that movie. It's pretty crazy. Okay, a cool category. The Oscars. What do you know? Wicked's probably gonna win

my least favorite of the five. Costume design. Who are the nominees? Ariane Phillips, A Complete Unknown. Lisey Crystal, Conclave. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator II. Lyndon... How are we saying? Mure? Mure, Nosferatu. Paul Tazewell, Wicked. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator II. Lindem... How are we saying? Murr?

Nosferatu, Paul Tazewell, Wicked. I think Wicked's gonna win. I do as well. I think this is actually one of the lockiest of the... I agree, and you know what? ...of the line categories. I think they should win. Oh.

Liked those popular dresses. How generous of you. Great job. Yeah, I... It's okay. I should win as Nosferatu for me. Okay. All those bodices. Yeah, they're good. They're very good.

All those cloaks that Count Orlok is rocking. Mm-hmm. But are you, like, is that who should win for the achievement, or is that just how you would like to dress? I haven't broken out Count Orlok voice on you yet. But that's coming. Not today. Not today. Is this the only Gladiator II nomination? Can't recall.

I think it is. It's kind of a weird one. Well. All those... Tunics. Sandals. I was going to say togas. Are they togas?

I'm trying to remember. I guess some people are wearing togas or robes. Roman, not Greek. Is Greek toga? I mean, I do think the Greeks started with the toga. Let's just Google toga right now. OK, great. This is the kind of content you come here for.

Toga, a distinctive garment of ancient Rome. No, I'm sorry. I was wrong about the Greeks. OK. OK. So they were wearing togas, yeah, and various sandals. Mm-hmm. and some other stuff. All those breast plates.

Sure, and all the little crowns and such. All the crowns, yeah, sure. What'd you think of those twins? Seems like they had the stuff, you know? They were ready to roll. Yeah, shades of Kamala. Okay, let's go to makeup and hairstyling. The nominees are A Different Man,

Emilia Perez, Nosferatu, The Substance, and Wicked. I think The Substance will win. I do too. Wicked and The Substance have kind of split the guild ones. I don't really see it with Wicked in this particular, just because of Elphaba's green skin? She's quite green. Sure. That was the accomplishment relative to the substance,

which is this orgiastic explosion of makeup effects? It's pretty central to the plot if you get the wrong green, you know? Okay. Listen, I also think that the substance should win, so. How many times have you watched Wicked? One time. Okay.

You seem to be showing some affection for it here. No, I just... I'm honoring what I saw and what was there, you know? Yeah. Honor the makeup, honor the film. It was green. It was quite green. You think Wicked should win?

No. Substance. Okay. We're aligned on that. We've been aligned on a lot of these. Some of these are snoozy. We did the interesting ones at first. Let's get less snoozy. Film editing. Okay. I don't know what's going on here.

I don't either. I don't know if I'm taking a chance by doing this or not. We talked about how this was one category in a potential quartet of potential wins for Sean Baker. Yes. The nominees. Oh, you're gonna read them, yeah. Are Enora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Amelia Perez, and Wicked.

If Sean Baker wins this, I just, I think we know where the rest of the night is going. Yes. I think there's not a high likelihood that The Brutalist wins, but if The Brutalist wins, my antenna goes straight to the roof. Sure. Because there's not a ton of evidence

that it's going to happen. Yeah. But I know that there are people who have admiration, despite the film's length. The Brutalist has wildly underperformed the guilds. But again, similar to the kind of flow versus the wild robot thing, where I'm like, what's really in the sauce of the academy right now?

What... Who is like the dominant... Who are the dominant blocks? Right. I still haven't fully figured that out yet. I don't think it's gonna be a big night for the Brutalist at all, spoiler alert. But... I'm keeping my eye on that. To me, it is ultimately between Conclave and Enora, which is what I think we all think best picture comes down to, right?

That's so crazy. Yeah, I think so. Which is... comes down to, right? That's so crazy. Yeah, I think so. What a weird year. How did we get here? Yeah, yeah. So who do you have winning this? I have Conclave winning. I do too.

I don't feel good about it. I don't either. And like I said, if Sean Baker's up there, you know, I think we know how the rest of the night's gonna go. I think you're right about The Brutalist. I also think The Brutalist should win because I think everyone who's whining about the length is confusing the task of what an editor does. And it's not to just trim,

it's not what I love to do as an editor of writing. It's about pacing and it's actually bringing that like absolutely sprawling sort of like maniacal vision into some sort of focus and pace and you can follow what's going on. And that movie moves. It is however many hours, but it moves. You know, it's so funny you say that, because I have Brutalist Should Win

in a couple of categories where it might feel like a reach, but I picked Anura Should Win. Well, that's nice. I'll tell you why. Also a long movie that moves. A long movie that moves, I think, slows down a little bit too much for me. That's a story choice.

The same way that the Brutalist kind of makes story choices that I think people don't love. I just think cutting comedy is an underrated skill. And the second act in the movie is a diamond. It's like a perfect, and look at the way in particular, when they enter Yvonne's home or Yvonne's parents' home, and the way that Annie is being sort of like attacked

by these men or You know restrained by these men. There are a lot of cuts a lot of different angles and energy that is super duper high You know, obviously Baker conceptualizing writing. Yeah shooting and doing everything on this movie You might take this away from him a little bit. You might say well if you do everything yourself, then you But it's hard to get just right, I'm with you. It's hard to get just right. Some good nominees in this category do not know why Wicked is here.

You know, Bohemian Rhapsody won this category five years ago, so. This is a very finicky category. For however many years. I think legitimately, I think it's very similar to Best Picture in terms of it's like, one film's at 60%, one film's at 35%, one film's at 10%. And we should note that edit, best editing is historically,

it is often tied to Best Picture. It is sort of, I mean, even though that's like changing a little bit, but- You see correspondence in terms of the winners having a best editing nomination, historically. It can be a sign. So that's why we're like scratching our heads about it. Another one that's a little tricky.

Mm-hmm. Cinematography. Who are the nominees? Loll Crawley, The Brutalist, Greg Frazier, Dune Part II, Paul Guillaume, Amelia Perez, Ed Lachman, Maria, Jaron Blaschke, Nosferatu. Now I mentioned to you that the AST Awards

threw us for a little bit of a loop over the weekend by giving their award to Ed Lachman. It's been a long time since a movie that did not have a best picture nomination won in this category. Yeah. Doesn't usually happen. It did happen for Deacons, as I recall,

for Blade Runner 2049. That wasn't a best picture nominee, right? Yeah, but that was Deacons. It was Deacons. And I mean, it is Runner 2049. That wasn't a Best Picture nominee, right? Yeah, but that was Deakins. It was Deakins. And, I mean, it is insane that Ed Lachman doesn't have an Oscar. Agree. And so you could see that happening,

but I don't know if he has the household name across the Academy that Deakins does in terms of its time to overcome the fact that literally no one but you and me saw Maria. Yeah, I thought it was interesting that he got this for another Pablo Lorraine movie that was less appreciated, but maybe just speaks to the strength of that body in his mind or in his body of work.

Hmm. So I chose L'Alcralé for the Brutalist. As did I. I think Jaron Blaschke should win for Nosferatu. It's pretty close. It's pretty close. I probably do too. I think they're both...chke should win for Nosferatu. It's pretty close. It's pretty close. I probably do too. I think they're both... They both had hard jobs. They both are working with very exacting filmmakers, with very strong visions,

who I say this with affection for both Robert Eggers and Brady Corbett, are really up their own asses. Somebody needs to take the microphone away from somebody you just mentioned. Brady? Sir, come on. Just, you know. I think he has done actually a very smart thing for himself. Of course.

I think he has developed a cult of personality and a persona that is hard for filmmakers to do in 2025. Whether you like him or not is kind of immaterial. Yeah. Most of the great directors are en font de rives. That's true. Very few people are Steven Spielberg. We're like, oh, he seems like a nice man. It's like, go read an interview with Godard.

It's like, they're assholes. Yeah. Okay. So we're on the same page with Lyle Crawley. We've matched on a lot of these. Yes. We're kind of going a little chalky. I do also think that Ed Lachman deserves an Oscar.

So if you want to put that for should win, you know. Yeah, I mean, we can go through his entire filmography and say, why did you not win one? But good job, Lyle Crowley, that looked good. Yeah, he probably, let's see, what's the earliest one he should have won? Maybe Desperately Seeking Susan in 1985? Yeah.

That's how, you know, that's how far back his career goes. He shot The Lords of Flatbush in 1974. We're talking about a 50-year body of work. Okay, next category is original screenplay. The nominees are Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance. You gonna do it? I'm not gonna do it.

I'm not gonna do it either. I really wanna do it. I know. And you could... Like, it could not be wrong. But you're not gonna do it. You're, and you could, like, it could not be wrong, but you're not gonna do it. You're gonna go with Sean Baker for Enora. I am gonna go with Sean Baker for Enora. Yes.

I really wanted to go for a real pain. Yeah. I mean, it's there. There are hints, there are clues, it's possible. There's a lot of clues, there's some precursor stuff. There's also the Jesse Eisenberg factor. Yes. He is a very well-liked and accomplished actor who has worked with many people in Hollywood.

He's worked in huge productions. He's worked in independent film. He's worked on television. He's worked in the theater. He's also just, if you've met him, just a nice funny guy. Just so lovely. And he's been giving great speeches. And people.

Did you see the bit where someone asked him about like his TikTok or all his social media stuff? No. And he's like, I'm old and dumb, so I just do whatever. And then says the name of the nice young woman at Searchlight who is in charge of the social media. And he knows her name and he's like, she's lovely. And she's just like, do this.

Okay. And so then I did it. And I was just like, well, Jesse Eisenberg, you're the best. Yeah, I mean, he's great. He's run a great campaign. Also relatable. I mean, he's one of us, obviously. Age-wise, at least. I...

Original screenplay, historically, has been the... Bastion of the cool. Yeah. Anora is the kind of movie that usually wins just original screenplay. Right. And nothing else. Exactly. And so we're in a funky year where I think it's probably going to win, and I'm probably tipping my hand about how I feel like everything's going to go on this night.

But again, if it doesn't win, much like editing, the Conclave siren is going to start wailing. For, oh, oh, because something else gets original and then Conclave gets adapted. It's possible. Okay. And Conclave gets adapted, and that means Conclave's package, so to speak, will be stronger. Do you think, let me ask you, if, if, does it matter who else wins original screenplay, if it's not Inora?

Like, do you interpret a real pain win differently than you would a substance win? I think so. I might have misspoken on the cinematography category. I think it's actually original screenplay is a category that very rarely wins without a best picture nomination. So a real pain not having a best picture nomination, which I predicted for months and months that it would.

I wonder if this is one of the rare cases where after nominations, Jesse Eisenberg did a lot of good for his film in terms of advocating for it, even though it lost out on Best Picture. Like he could have just packed up. He could have been like, I got screenplay, that's cool. You know.

I'll be there. I'll show up, I'll support Kieran, but I'm not gonna do a lot. But he's done a lot. And I think a real pain not being a BP nominee, but winning shows that Enora is not strong. Okay. That's just, this is a guttural. What if the substance wins?

I'm not going to totally rule Enora out. Because you think that's people just being like, well, you know what, I liked the substance. And, but both of, know what, I liked the substance. But both the real pain and the substance have acting nominees already locked up. So it would be less of a throw this film a bone and more of a I'm not that psyched about Enora.

Well, what that could tell you, and we're really in game theory territory here, is if they give original screenplay to the substance, it could mean that Mikey Madison could still win best actress. No, I don't think so. OK, we'll get there very shortly. So we both have a Nora. Yes.

And... Should win? I wrote a real pain. I wrote the film, A Nora. OK, great. Written by Sean Baker. Adapted screenplay. The Brutalist is a movie that I love.

It at times feels like a person writing a novel in a screenplay. My favorite scene in the movie is obviously Van Buren and Lazlo Toth having their exchange. But like everything that Lazlo Toth says in that scene, I'm like no human has ever said these words together.

But Adrian Brody is so good that it doesn't matter. And Guy Pearce too. He tricks you, yeah. Okay, adapted screenplay. The nominees are? A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Amelia Perez, Nickel Boys, and Sing Sing. This is actually the most locked category of the night. Conclave.

Yes. Yeah, it's one at every single awards thing. Peter Strawn, longtime screenwriter, admired. This book is okay, but... At best, it is insane. I mean, he's basically saddled with the weirdest, silliest ending to like a very pulpy, fun story. And makes it work.

And makes it work until the ending. I mean, the ending, you're still sort of like, what? But you just don't care about everything else. We should talk about that when we talk about best picture. OK. I have Conclave winning as well. I think Nickel Boy should win. As do I.

A major achievement. We've talked about why it's such an achievement on past episodes. Actor in a supporting role, the nominees are Yura Borisov for Enora, Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain, Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, Guy Pearce for The Brutalist, Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice. Kieran Culkin.

Kieran Culkin will win this award. Yes. He will give a seemingly tossed off, but maybe secretly privately constructed speech. He's very good at remembering his lines, so to speak. Uh, you know, he's good in this movie. He's my... I'm pro Kieran Culkin.

Least favorite of the nominees? Uh, you know, he's good in this movie. He's my... I'm pro Kieran Culkin. Least favorite of the nominees? Mmm... He's my least favorite of the nominees. Okay. He's not bad. It's a very good character. I...

Well, he's tied for least favorite, in my opinion. So... With Jeremy Strong? Yeah. The succession boys? Is it just because you hate Roy Cohn or because you don't like what he did? Are you confused by? No, I'm not confused by.

I just, like, I get it. And it's a very Jeremy Strong performance in a movie that I was sort of irritated by. Okay. I think Guy Pearce should win. As do I. Oh, that's nice. He's incredible in that movie. Fantastic.

Actress in a supporting role. The nominees are Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown, Ariana Grande for Wicked, Felicity Jones for The Brutalist, Isabella Rossellini for Conclave, and Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez. Will win Zoe Saldana. Oh, you're gonna zag? No. Will win Zoe Saldana, should win Zoe Saldana. Oh, you're gonna zag? No.

Okay. Will win Zoe Saldana, should win Zoe Saldana. How about that? Should win Ariana Grande. So there you go. You're really coming out strong for wicked. No, it's just, listen, I can appreciate what is good

and then say that the rest is not, but she was very good, very winning. I liked her performance as well. I talked about it when I talked about the film on the show. I also live with Glenda. So because my three-year-old would like nothing more than to be Glenda, then I have to honor her by saying, good job, Ariana Grande.

Listen to her on WTF. Ariana Grande. Yes, which was okay. I gotta say, it is odd listening to Marc Maron do his, and again, tremendous love and respect for what Marc Maron does in his show. I listen to so many hours of it. Those two talking is just weird to me. It's just, imagine that conversation.

They weren't bad together, but it's just in my mind's eye. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Looking at each other feels wrong. Yes. Okay. Actor in the leading role, why looking at each other feels wrong? Yes. Okay. Actor in the leading role, why don't you read the nominees? Adrian Brody, The Brutalist, Timothy Chalamet, A Complete Unknown, Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing, Ray Fiennes, Conclave, Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice.

Before you say anything, this is the one where I hadn't made up my mind. Interesting. And I think right now, just in my head, I know what I'm going to do, but I wanted to say that I've made my decision in my head before you. Do you want to say yours before I say mine? Sure. I think it's going to be Adrienne Brody. I chose Adrienne Brody as my. Yeah.

Could be a surprise. Again, I said this on the show this week. 18 of the last 20 best actor winners at SAG went on to win Best Actor at the Academy Awards. That is a very powerful statistic. Very powerful. It traverses a long period of evolution within the Academy. Even though SAG doesn't always match up, Adrian Brody had been bulldozing his way towards this

and was a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite until Sunday night. It certainly wouldn't stun me if Timothee Chalamet won, but it would surprise me. I think he's a little too young for what the Academy likes to do. The only real precedent for this, of course, is Adrian Brody himself, when he won in 2002 for The Pianist.

And I said my should win is Adrian Brody as well. Mine as well. As much as I'm an admirer of Timothy Chalamet, Adrian Brody, the movie is on his shoulders. It's astonishing in that movie. He is incredible. It is one of the great screen performances in recent history.

So we're aligned. Why were you agonizing? Because I do think that Timothee Chalamet at SAG Awards, even though it doesn't affect the voting, it kind of reflects where that voting body, which is a very large voting body, is headed. kind of reflects where that voting body, which is a very large voting body, is headed. I do think A Complete Unknown has some deep academy support,

just like a very traditional movie, a really likable performance. And the Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, and then Cade Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh stuff lives on in my head, right? It can change. I'll give you an even more pertinent example, I think, which is we saw this last year with Killers of the Flower Moon versus Poor Things and how Emma Stone triumphed at the Oscars.

A lot of people will say bigger star tends to win at the Academy Awards in these races. Right. Timothy Chalamet is the bigger star tends to win at the Academy Awards in these races. Right. Timothy Chalamet is the bigger star. That's true. Brody's been in the business longer, but Timothy Chalamet is a much bigger star than he is. Adrian Brody is on movies that are like straight to VOD.

That's no disrespect to him. Just saying. Everybody has to make a living. Absolutely, look at me now. Just prostrating myself before people making predictions like an asshole. So I'm not better than him by any means. Do you think Olivia Colman was a bigger star

than Glenn Close? I don't. I mean, she was in more people's homes. I think she was a more, weirdly we didn't quite realize it at the time, but was actually more of a draw. You know what I'm saying when I say that? Yes.

And I think particularly that was a reflection of the increasingly international group too. Right. And I think Adrian Brody could benefit from that a bit. He could. That's kind of where my head's at with The Brutalist. Mine as well. Are there a lot of Europeans that are coming, going to come out for this movie and the voting? I think so.

That kind of needs to happen, right? And it needs to happen in another category, which we'll talk about momentarily. Let's talk about actress in a leading role. The nominees are Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, Carla Sofia Gascon for Amelia Perez, Mikey Madison for Enora, Demi Moore for The Substance, and Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here. One item of note, this collection of nominees

have never faced off against each other through all the precursors. Fernanda Torres not present at the BAFTAs. There was, of of course the Golden Globes split and not all these names were represented at SAG. So what does that mean? It means Demi Moore. It's a sweep. Well, it wouldn't be a sweep because Mikey won at BAFTA. That's right. You're right. Okay.

That was the one, another one that threw me for a loop. Much like Timmy at SAG, Mikey Madison at BAFTA, winning there, which was very odd, particularly because, and God, my brain is like an absolute tool right now, I can feel the gears clicking together, and Orr didn't win anything else at BAFTA. Didn't win Best Picture, didn't win Best Director, didn't win Best Screenplay, didn't win any of that stuff.

Which is stuff that had been winning everywhere else at the American Guilds. And yet Mikey Madison won at BAFTA. So what the hell was that? I think, once again, BAFTA can be confusing. Especially in the performer categories. The system is intricate. Okay. I also chose Demi Moore. Yeah. I think Mikey Madison should win. I do as well. She was wonderful. Is there any world where Fernanda Torres wins? I mean, sure. I think as well. She was wonderful. Is there any world where Fernanda Torres wins? I mean, sure.

I think there is. Yes, again, the Brazilian voters are powerful and passionate. And we see them and... It wouldn't be just them. And we see them and respect them. We do? I mean, I don't want to find out what happens if I... See them where?

I know, I... In a dark alley? I just... Would love to go to that house in Rio. Someone let me know if it's still there. Okay. This is just your fast five bias showing, I think. Isn't that the one in Rio?

Yeah, but also like, you don't want to go to Rio? Yeah, sure. I mean, you don't like the beach. That's the other thing. I don't like the beach. There is one part in the, in I'm Still Here where Fernanda Torres' character just talks about like, she needs to go like the beach. There is one part in the, in I'm Still Here, where Fernanda Torres' character just talks about, like, she needs to go to the beach or else it's not a real vacation.

And I was like, truce, you know? She sees me. And that's really the core text of that film. That's really what it's about at the end of the day. Uh... I... I'm excited to see this play out. Demi Moore's giving great speeches. I think you're overthinking it a tiny bit.

I picked Demi Moore. I know, but like even in this, I think you're like doing a little get out's going to win over Shape of Water, but you know, that's, that's, it's okay. Yeah. Thank you for bringing up the Shape of Water. I was thinking about it recently because best original screenplay, the Shape of Water,

memorably did not win, get out one that year. But then it went on to win Best Director and Best Picture. So what is, does that have, does that tell us anything about Enora this year with any of the other categories? Like, is there a meaningful place like that where it could miss? I'm sort of vamping a bit before we get to Best Director

and Best Picture, which of course are still actually quite difficult to predict at this stage. I think, I'm trying to think. The get out, the get out win, I sound so Southern when I say get out. The get out win. The get out win. You sound very Texan. Really horrifying.

Was like, you're very classic. We love Jordan Peele. Like we liked this, We would like this. It was a cool award, right? And also, like, a great, important film. And... And that was particularly interesting because it was up against The Shape of Water

and Three Billboards, which were number one and two in the race throughout the entire season. Right. And it still triumphed over both of those movies. Is Enora not as cool as Jordan Peele? No, I think it's cool. I mean, you're right that it would normally be the cool win plus, and now it's also possibly

just gonna get others. Like that's why I was kind of like, maybe the substance has a shot here, just in terms of- I could, that cool quality. But I do think that they're gonna give to me more an Oscar so they don't need to throw at another bone, you know? The ingenue era has slowly been dying in best actress category. It's something that happened quite frequently in the 2010s and has not been happening nearly

as much. So that's part of the reason why I was swayed to pick to me more. Okay, directing. Who are the nominees? Sean Baker, Anura. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown. Jacques Odierne, Emilia Perez.

Coralie Farja, The Substance. I've chosen Sean Baker. As have I. The DGA precedent is extremely strong. Agree. It's hard for me to fight against it. Okay. It does feel like a year

with the directing best picture split. Oh, interesting. I'm not saying that that's what I'm doing. Okay, but you're emotionally preparing yourself for that? But it feels like one of those years. Doesn't it feel like one of those years? Doesn't this feel like a La La Land moonlight kind of situation? Not really.

What? I mean, sure, anything, you know, anything could happen. Craziest, ospers. Expos facto. Sure, yeah. But I also, again, I think that we're all, we're trying to make sense of our experience, right? And so it's been a very confusing year for you.

Yeah. And you haven't... Yeah. What do you mean? Well, you've been doing it for the whole six months. Oh, that's true. I logged on in January. So you're just like, you're exhausted and you don't know which way's up.

And you wanna, like, you wanna put some meaning around this roller coaster that you've been on. You got me. And I, meanwhile, I think that surprises could happen. I'm not 100% confident, but it does seem like things have shifted into a place a little bit. Even after. I could be wrong. I could be wrong.

I could be wrong. Yeah, I think if Edward Berger were here, and he is of course not nominated in this category, I would really be tantalized by the possibilities. If Brody doesn't win, does that mean it's more likely or less likely? If Brody, yeah, if Brady doesn't win. No, if Adrian Brody. Oh, if Adrian Brody doesn't win. No, if Adrien Brody loo-

Oh, if Adrien Brody doesn't win. I was like, are we on the wrong first name basis with Mr. Corbae at this point? If Adrien Brody doesn't win, is it more likely or less likely that Brady Corbae wins Best Director? And with the idea that you wanna give one to the Brutalist. I don't know if the Brutalist

has that kind of appreciation, respectfully. I think that it has the people who absolutely love it and are voting for it. But I don't know if everyone's sitting there trying to like disperse, you know, trophies fairly the way we are at the Alternative Academy. I think they're either, if Adrian Brody doesn't win

in Best Actor, it's because there is not a brutalist hive in the Academy to correlate to the hive all around us. The boys didn't bleed through? Yeah, the boys didn't make it in. OK. I could be wrong. I've chosen Coralie Fargeot for Should Win. Well, that's lovely. I've chosen Coralie Farge for Should Win. Well, that's lovely.

I've chosen Sean Baker from Anorah. All right, well... Coralie Farge, you know, first of all, just recognize the work of women. Yeah, you're so right. Thank you. This is a woman with a strong voice. She was confronted by... How dare you. It's you and Justin Baldoni.

Stop. It's not nice. He wants to lift women up, right? In their work. That's what he says. He had a whole podcast about it. He did have a whole podcast about it. I also have a whole podcast about it.

Have you noticed? Coralie Farge did exactly what she wanted to do. She was confronted by a studio who were like, don't do this. We don't want to put this movie out. And she was like, no, this is what it is. This is what I want to do. It's a crazy idea. I'm a super French lady and I need to,

I need my vision realized. She should be rewarded for it. I think that's what this award is all about. On the flip side, pretty much everybody in this category is good. They're good in different ways. Jacques Audeard's movie is an absolute nightmare. But Jacques Audeard is a good director. This is just not, this is his least good film.

Sure. James Mangold, speaking of WTF, some of the best 90 minutes you'll ever get. If you like listening to guys explain why and how they made a movie, and what they were thinking about when they made a movie, just check out James Mangold talking. I think Mark asked three questions in 78 minutes. Which is, you know, that's an incredible power dynamic at work. It really is. And it was great. I really enjoyed it. I'm a huge Mangold fan.

I enjoyed that film very much. Should we go to the final category? Let's do it. Have I taken like the the suspense that you're trying to build out of this? No, there's no suspense. All right. Best picture. Yes. The nominees in this category are Anora, the Brutalist,

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune Part II, Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. What are you choosing? I'm choosing Anora. I am as well. We got to go with what we know. I am not feeling confident.

No. It could go several different ways. And that is fun. I think it can only go one other way. You think it can only go conclave? I do. Okay. I think this is now fully a two horse race.

I think it's very hard to look at BAFTA and SAG ensemble and say, that doesn't matter. It does matter. Okay. It matters a lot. They're going to intro the next ceremony with that. It's like right before Kristen Bell comes out and it's like, and I'm an actor. It'll just be the SAG awards. It does matter.

You're giving out really great taglines these days, along with your segues. I've just become a very confident broadcaster. I just, I don't know what else to say. I feel very at ease with you in this format, speaking of these items. So you identify as a broadcaster? Absolutely, always have. What do you think this is?

I mean, you are correct. I don't know if broadcaster is where I would, is what I would think of immediately. I'm a six foot tall white man with brown hair. I am a broadcaster. Congratulations, you did it. I mean, I aspired to something and I achieved it. I actually never aspired to it, but I did achieve it.

I'm just a nice mom who wants to go to the Rosewood Cona. You are not nice and barely a mom. It's only been three years. Two, not one, but two. We have two children, but three years. Yeah, yeah, yeah. A mother of two. I'm a mother of two.

A sort of, sometimes nice mom of two. Nice to them. Who wants to go to Kona? That's how you identify? Put that in your Instagram bio. In my Instagram bio? A nice mom of two who wants to go to Kona. Should I tag them?

You think that'll help with the invite? At Four Seasons. At Rosewood. Um... that might work. I think Enora's gonna win. I do as well. I think Concliff could win. I do as well. I think if The Brutalist wins, I'm gonna...

You're gonna lose it? It's gonna be a funny episode. It's gonna be real fun. You're gonna see a really goofy boy. Um... I think The Brutalist should win. I think The Brutalist is... You've made that quite clear. It's just a crazy achievement. That, I think The Brutalist should win. I think The Brutalist is... You've made that quite clear. It's just a crazy achievement.

That's my take. You think Anor should win? Uh, yeah, also a crazy achievement that we've sort of been taking for granted. I disagree. I think it's been widely celebrated by the industry for the last five months. I think it won the POM Door at the Cannes Film Festival. I think Sean Baker has been crowned. I have no problem with any of these things,

but I don't think we're taking it for granted. It's really good. I'm not even sure if it's my favorite Sean Baker movie, honestly. What is your favorite Sean Baker movie? Probably Red Rocket. I think that's the funniest and the smartest and the most laden with subtextual ideas

about our world. It's just not it. It doesn't make you feel quite as good as Enora does at times. Right. You know, Enora has all this, like, big uplift in the first act. I just... I mean, I love Red Rocket. I... Simon Rex forever.

Uh, have you ever read... He did, like, a whole series of interviews promoting Red Rocket, and there was one... There was just about how he... He recommended... It was a strategist recommends thing and he recommended those like toe spreaders. Do you know what those are? No.

They're just like little gel things that you put between your feet to spread your toes. And he talks about how he thinks that's really important for grounding yourself. And I think about that a lot. So shout out to him. Just a nice mom of two. I think that Enora has as many of the ideas as his films, but then also manages to achieve

both that kind of classic Hollywood cinema like magic and also is a very modern movie all at once. And just like the number of things that it achieves, like the very light touch is magical to me and hard to do. No denying that. It would be a very cool and very interesting best picture winner to talk about in the context of history and also in what it means right now for movies. This is a pretty small collection of movies though, just in terms of how many

people have engaged with these movies, what the kind of culture around them is. You know, Dune Part II is obviously a very big film to a lesser extent, wicked, still very popular. And then there's the next biggest film behind that, A Complete Unknown. And the substance. Box office wise. I mean, you can't underestimate the Conclave Peacock Run. Actually, you're right.

Conclave, I think, all in, made $100 million, which is really good. And then everyone I know is watching it at home and being like, huh, Peacock, huh, Conclave. Conclave wins, you say what? It never gets old. It's a great bet. Do you think my mom's watched Conclave?

Do you remember this? Christmas dinner? Yeah, I do. And my mom was like, I've read the book, so why do I need to watch the movie? Which is just the most my mom take of all time. Was it that Eileen had not seen it, so you shushed her so that she wouldn't spoil it? No, that was at, that was when she, that was the last visit. It was like, Cy was like two weeks old, I hadn't been able to see a movie.

And my mom was like, I don't know how they're gonna adapt this because... Oh, you hadn't seen it. I hadn't seen it. And Chris and I had to be like, do not spoil the twist of Conclave to me. Oh, and she said she wasn't going to. And then at Christmas, she was like,

I haven't seen it. Why would I see it? I read the book. I don't need to see the movie. And you and I were just like... in my home at Christmas dinner, having like, I haven't seen it. Why would I see it? I read the book. I don't need to see the movie. And you and I were just like in my home at Christmas dinner, having dedicated our lives to this. And I was like, cool, thanks mom. Not a listener of the pod. I will say sure. You know, I guess I don't.

You'll say sure? That will be your response to the Conclave's victory at the 97th Academy Awards. Okay, very good. I will say, I mean, it makes sense. It was a strange year. And in a way, we, I guess, were like, wishful thinking it in a different way,

when the, like, ensemble, like, vaguely, like, recognizably, like, Oscar-type movie about important European subjects, quote unquote, but with a commercial twist directed by a very well respected international filmmaker starring all your favorite guys, Wins, plus Isabella Rossellini. You know, it makes sense. And maybe we spent the last six months, you know, whining for nothing. Okay.

That's what I think. What will you say? You'll just have to tune in Sunday night to find out. That's great work. Thank you. Um, what kind of drink are you going to have during the, the live show? Well, I've been on a gin kick for the last year or so, but if I have gin and then podcasts could be dicey situation.

Okay. Gin makes me a little ornery. In a nice, in an amusing way. But I'm not sure that that's what I want to bring. So my gut tells me old fashioned. Rye old fashioned. If we're programming liquor to correspond to mood, I should probably have a margarita.

Because you're a huge Amelia Perez fan? Yeah, and also because, you know, it's a representation of Mexico. That's what I'm saying. Exactly, is accurate. Of course. Yeah. Fully. Will you make the margarita for me?

I haven't made a margarita in some time. Yeah. You make a good margarita, and I don't, I don't really. I just stole my wife's recipe. Okay, right. I mean, Eileen makes all the good cocktails. She knows how to make good cocktails. I can study and work on it.

I don't know if that's what I want. It does feel like more of an afternoon drink for me as well than... It does. It does, not me. Just a giant tall glass of brown liquor at 2 p.m. I could have like a Campari soda. I have on YouTube.

That would be very elegant. You know? Yeah. You're just an elegant lady. Thank you so much. It's a nice mom of two. Thanks, yeah. Great job today. Great job.

You feel good about this? In the end, we didn't vary that much. I went pretty chalky, I think, because I'm afraid. OK. I didn't take a lot of risks. Well, it's good to be honest. Yeah. I think it's going to come back to bite me.

I think I fucked up the shorts for sure. Okay. You usually do. Animated feature I'm really confused about. Okay. Even though I don't think there's a wrong answer between the two. Right. Best picture of Conclave wins can be fucking weird. It can be fucking weird.

Yeah. But you know, and in some ways it's just, it's a green book year. But that's, I mean, and that's rude to Conclave. Yeah, it just, it will feel like an off year but that's, I mean, and that's rude to conclave. Yeah, it just, it just will feel like an off year. Yeah. It will feel like an off year. I agree with you. Okay.

Any closing thoughts? Love the Oscars. I'm excited. I'm looking forward to the show. Conan O'Brien, of course, hosting. They've already announced three and a half hours, clips. They were like, they didn't say specifically, I don't know what your like DVR calendar,

you know, guide will say, but they were like, we're going to try to bring it in by three and a half. We know everyone wants three. What can we do? So will there be any movies that are in the Irishman over 10 situation? Like, is the Brutalist most likely to be hit by that? Probably, though we predicted a couple. I don't think we predicted a complete unknown win. And it has one, two, three, four. Yeah, so, 0 for 8. That would be bad.

Yeah, it'd be tough. They all worked really hard. But Monica Barberow won the heart of Andrew Garfield, at least for one night only, so who's the real winner? My king stands astride his kingdom once more. Thanks so much to Andrew, the man. Thanks to Jack Sanders as well. Thanks to our producer Bobby Wagner for his work on today's episode. Reminder, live on YouTube, this person, very excited to be with you.

2.30 PM, 5.30 Eastern, before the Academy Awards, and then we will be coming to you as quickly as we can after the telecast on Sunday night here on the big picture listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts watch us here Be nice in the comments Amanda reads all of them. See you then you