The Big Picture - Final Best Picture Power Rankings and How Oscar Voting Really Works

Episode Date: February 26, 2024

Sean and Amanda open the show by discussing the SAG Awards and highlight the Netflix streaming experience, Lily Gladstone’s win for Best Actress, and the dominance of 'Oppenheimer’ (1:00). Then, they create their final Best Picture power rankings (43:55). Later, Tom Oyer joins the show to help explain how the Academy Awards actually work and what the voting process looks like (1:01:44). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Guest: Tom Oyer Producer: Jack Sanders Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit td.com slash DI offer to learn more. I'm Sean Fennessy. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about the big race, if one even exists at this point. We are deep into awards season. Oscar voting has just about concluded. Later in this episode, we'll be joined by Tom Oyer, a longtime fixture of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Tom has been a key figure in evolving how voting for the Oscars works and understands it really as well as anyone on the planet. So we invited him to come on the show, help us understand what has just transpired, what voting has been like for the last 10 years, what we need to know about how our Oscar sausage is made. But first, March 10th grows closer. How are you feeling, Amanda? Are you feeling excited about the imminent arrival of

the Oscars and the conclusion of award season? I like an award show. As you know, I watched one this weekend, like on replay, which is just on a Saturday night, which, you know, I had to look in the mirror and look at some of my life choices. But also, I had a nice time. So I'm looking forward to that. I think we always look forward. We get excited. We, you know, make some predictions. There's maybe one surprise thing that we don't know will happen, what will happen.

And then we go through the process and feel like a sense of letdown, which is life. You know, so sure. Yes, I'm excited. I'm embracing life and the Oscars. That surprise you're suggesting, those are fewer and farther between as our awards season evolves because there are so many precursors. This weekend, we saw three precursors. We saw the SAG Awards, we saw the Producers Guild Awards, and we also saw the Independent Spirit Awards. A little bit less so of a meaningful precursor in what happens at the Oscars, but there have been quite a few now. And so the race is really settling into place. Do you want to talk about SAG?

You watched the SAG Awards. I did. On the Netflix streaming service. I watched them on the Netflix streaming service. I turned them on live around 6.20 PST to catch the last bit. My son sat and watched with us. He kept saying talking over and over again, which was an accurate representation of what was happening. And then—

I am Knox, and I am an actor. Yeah. Well, we had missed that. And as you know, that's one of the awards season highlights for me and Amanda Dobbins. So after bedtime, I go back and I'm like, well, I'll just watch the beginning to find out who is an actor this year. And, you know, suddenly I'm just, I fast forwarded through a lot. Thank you time I think that a proper streaming service has been the primary carrier for an award show. And of course, Netflix had shows and movies competing at this awards. I don't really think that there's any conflict of interest there. Obviously, ABC broadcasts the Academy Awards owned by Disney. But there is something a little bit different when you're entering the portal where you can watch beef or where you can watch maestro.

And I got to say, I didn't think Netflix really had their thumb on the scale too much. They use some of their in-house talent. Tan France, for example. ABC does that. They do. And they do that in terms of Disney movies as well as their network TV stars. Yeah, so I didn't feel a meaningful difference. I watched it live.

And for the most part, I thought it was a pretty good telecast. I'm not a huge fan of the SAG Awards show. Historically, I can't think of many great moments as much as they want to valorize the history of that award show. But I thought it was fairly smooth. A little bit of audio trouble. It was a little bit tinny in the room, I would say. The production values were inexperienced. I would say it was a little shaggy, which all things on Netflix are. It was very funny to me that it just like ran a little long. And since there were no time constraints, everyone was just kind of like, oh, oh, wait, you want me to go on stage now?

You know, there wasn't that sort of military precision that i think years of live like broadcast television have brought down uh i agree the sound uh was a little um off and everyone just kind of seemed to be like looking over their shoulder being like so now now i go just a little bit but uh at the same time you know, they had some cast reunions. They had some bits. I would say most of the bits didn't work. Bits didn't work in an award show? What? I thought it was a pretty, like, the ratio of bits working to not working was not what you wanted.

And I say that as the world's number one Devil Wears Prada fan, like, in the world, maybe. Do you think I am? Do you think there's anyone who's a bigger Devil Wears Prada fan, like, in the world, maybe. Do you think I am? Do you think there's anyone who's a bigger Devil Wears Prada fan than me? Uh, gosh. That sounds like a really exciting contest. Like, I mean, I guess in a civilian way. There are probably people who just update, like,

Tumblrs all day long, and I can't compete with that. You know, I have other things to do. Right, right. Like, at alt Miranda Priestly on Twitter. You know, someone who's just, like, consumed by it. But I have to be up there, right? Yeah, definitely. I think you're one of the great advocates for the film. Okay, thank you. I was going to say I'm one of the great experts on the film as well, but that's fine. That reunion was pretty awkward. And that was another thing where it's like the timing,

the comedic timing of two incredibly, or I guess three incredibly funny people in Emily Blunt and Anne Hathaway who were kind of doing random priestly lines back at Meryl who forgot her glasses and was doing kind of like daffy Meryl. But and maybe some of that was like the sound. And so they couldn't get the time. You know, it was like a little off. And those are three stone cold pros. But it just didn't't quite land and that's kind of how the whole show went yeah it being netflix do you think they'll just be canceling this telecast after three seasons like how do you think this is going to go long term will it be will this be the permanent home of the saga awards the the saga wars themselves did try every you know idris elba who hosted

and fran drescher who gave just, I thought, disastrous speech. It certainly was long. It was long and didn't read the room and you could feel the room just really turning away in real time. It was meant to be a rabble rouser of a speech. And I wouldn't say that there was a lot of enthusiasm in the room. Didn't hit the marks. It was also sort of dissociative, you know, it went a lot of say that there was a lot of enthusiasm in the room. Didn't hit the marks. It was also sort of dissociative. It went a lot of places. And there was like the whole girl boss red lip moment, which is, that's tough for me. Where was your girl era at that time? Did you have it under your bed or was it in the bank? Where were you keeping it during that speech?

We were trying to pull it out of the bank, you know, but then it caused a run on the whole system. It was very difficult for us. Got it. Understood. But even as she was giving like a kind of fiery, I guess, speech about how we defeated the, you know, the systems of evil, she's like, thank you so much, Netflix, for hosting us. I'm just like, okay, that's not quite adding up. I completely agree. I had the same thought. I was like, you know, we can all do the math. And there were many thank yous to Netflix throughout the night for hosting

and for making this possible. So they got their money's worth. Yeah, I enjoyed Idris Elba. I thought he was surprisingly fleet of foot on stage and game for the bits and kind of like, maybe a little bit more winningly smarmy than I expected. And that's like that's a mode of comedy that can work if you do it well. So I really enjoyed him. I thought to myself, gosh, I could I could see him hosting the Oscars.

It's not so hard to believe he's got that thing that a lot of 80s and 90s hosts had were sort of like Chevy Chase or Goldie Hawn would show up to host the Oscars. You're like, wow, this is like a movie star. This is a person I love to see in my movies actually hosting the show. I think, is the last time that happened, is it Anne Hathaway and James Franco? Is that the last time a proper movie star? You know, I know the Steve Martins of the world. Wasn't Hugh Jackman after that? Maybe Hugh Jackman was immediately after that.

And he was fantastic, obviously. The Ted man, Seth MacFarlane. Yes, not exactly a movie star. I do like re-dubbing him ted man have you watched the ted tv series on peacock no i haven't but the commercials make me laugh i have to be really honest like ted one is good it also made me laugh like that bear saying dirty things is inappropriate it makes me laugh you're a simple girl and you like simple things like animated bears cursing at nine-year-olds um let's talk about the actual awards uh even though we're in a place now where this is getting a little boring and you know we're gonna do we gotta keep our energy i know i i know i mean i was really nervous about this in like

august you know i was like oh shit like alpenheimer's just gonna run the table here yeah and that is what is happening i mean we can talk about the, I think the most interesting thing that happened first, which is that Lily Gladstone won Best Actress. And I've really been unsure of this the whole time. Every time I think it's

Lily Gladstone, Emma Stone wins something. Every time I think it's Emma Stone, Lily Gladstone wins something. So what we have here is a genuine and interesting Academy Awards race. We have somebody who's,

you know, won the SAG Award. We have somebody who's won the BAFTA. You know, they split the globes because they're in two separate categories there. And so now we have like what feels like the one barn burner of the race. What'd you think of the Lily win and her speech and everything?

So you put in here, let's talk about Emma Stone's reaction, you know, because everyone was in their little box and Emma Stone erupts in what seemed to me genuine excitement for Lily Gladstone. Now she is also an Oscar-winning actress. Yes. And one of the best at just being a movie star and being in public. A very supportive colleague and also the star of The Curse, which is a show about taking things from Native people.

So she's being smart. But it did feel genuine. And I thought that it mirrored the room was psyched. The room was like really excited. Very similar to the Globes win when people, it seemed to be really noisy in there. And because the room had been sort of flat throughout the rest of the show,

everybody's on their feet. Everybody's really excited. Her speech, I thought, again, was wonderful and, you know, and was about what being an actor means to her and the power of empathy. And like, those are things that can sound really canned and, you know, sort of fake therapy or whatever. And it's genuine and moving from her. And you could like, there's a great reaction shot of John Lithgow just being like, yes,

like that was wonderful. Yeah. I clocked that too. Yeah. So people were really, really into it, which is wonderful because I am too. I like that performance

was extraordinary. So that kind of suggests, okay, so like she really has people behind her and, you know, SAG is like a very big

voting branch. So, so maybe it willG is like a very big voting branch. So maybe it will tip that way. But I don't know. I keep thinking back to Glenn Close won the SAG award for the wife. I did a little bit of research on this over the weekend. And, you know, last year SAG matched 4 for 4. I think the year before that it also matched 4 for 4 on all the acting categories. In the last, since 2010, I think only eight times across all

four major acting categories, SAG has not matched with the Academy Awards. So that's eight out of what I guess would be 56. Yeah. And that's a low percentage. There are sometimes some really odd ones, like the year that Regina King won the Oscar for If Beale Street Could Talk, she wasn't even nominated for a SAG award and there have been moments like that. You mentioned the Olivia Colman Glenn Close mismatch. There have been a few of those but for the most part, these are

very closely aligned. I can't really get a strong feel for what BAFTA means anymore and how representative it is. It used to be a much more significant precursor to the Academy Awards, but Emma Stone winning there indicates that she still has strength.

The favorite, or excuse me, Poor Things may have much more support internationally than Killers of the Flower Moon because of Yorgos, because of the nature of the production. So it feels pretty tight. Yeah. The only other thing I know about BAFTAs

is that Lily Gladstone was not even nominated. Yes. Well, their nomination process is truly bizarre. But so even there in terms of precursors and representative, that was not sort of a head-to-head matchup. It's a good point. So, yeah, I really don't know either. I was watching and thinking, okay, so what are my predictions going to be and what am I going to do here? Absolutely.

I'm starting to feel really good about 90%. And then there's a few, which we'll get into, that are still a little bit open. You know, the things that are not open seemingly at this point are best picture, best actor, and best supporting actor, all of which at SAG went to Oppenheimer for Robert Downey Jr., for Cillian Murphy, and of course for the cast and ensemble of Oppenheimer. I don't think it's going to matter, but I think our DJ was a little too comfortable in his speech. I was like, I was like, we're, you know, taking it maybe a little bit for granted. I don't think it's going to affect

anything, but if I knew that I were giving a speech during Oscar voting, I might nail it down a little bit more. Is this like some Leighton, I'm a gosling gal situation coming up? No, I was just like, I have been charmed by most of his other speeches. And I was like, you're phoning this one in. And I know that he'll be able to get. Well, speaking of winningly smart me. I mean, you know, that's kind of his brand too. I'm just saying that that was my note was I would have tried a little more, but it's fine. I know he'll bring it home for the Oscar. I'll be genuinely stunned if he does not win. I will as well. But I also think he'll give a great speech with, you know, a lot of...

I think it'll be very moving. This one was sort of just like, oh, thanks so much. Yeah, some jokes. A joke about my wife, basically. That was the totality of it. Now, Cillian Murphy, there's been a strong contingent of Paul Giamatti true believers out there. Yeah. He won for Best Comedy, a male lead performance at the Golden Globes. And ever since then, there's been some thinking that maybe his work in the holdovers would, you know, recognize

like an amazing 35 year career of playing like lovable Hector and losers. That does not appear to be the case. No. Because Killian Murphy keeps winning these darn awards. And I think it's deserved. I'm just going to put that out there. I do as well. He's phenomenal in Oppenheimer. I'm a big fan. Great acceptance speeches also. Just great vibes.

Yeah. We love the Irish, don't we? Yeah. He's not giving a classical best actor performance in that movie. And so I think that that's what's been lingering for people. That there's something a little bit more restrained and quiet about his Oppenheimer. best actor performance in that movie. And so I think that that's what's been lingering for people, that there's something a little bit more restrained and quiet about his Oppenheimer.

He's doing a lot. He is aging, going through time. It is a biopic. You know, it is a movie that feels familiar, but it's not

Freddie Mercury on stage screaming. You know, like it's not the same thing. But there's a physicality to it also. They've been doing a lot of press

about how he didn't eat anything and just like took baths and didn't get to party with everyone else. That sounds just like my life. So, doesn't eat, takes baths, and doesn't socialize is very familiar to me. I appreciated his suggestion that Olivia, is it Turlby or is that just the Irish? How are we saying it? Olivia Turlby? Olivia Turlby.

I think it's Thurlby or is that just the Irish? How are we saying it? Olivia Turlby? Olivia Turlby. I think it's Thurlby. Thurlby, okay. Well, Olivia Thurlby, who created the name Oven Homies, should trademark and merchandise that. I think that's a great idea. I think Universal might have something to say about that, honestly. They should get involved. That would be good merch if they had any worry about winning,

which I don't think that they do at this point. There was roughly 80 more minutes of this show that was just giving out awards to TV shows that we've already seen four more times on TV between the Globes, the Critics' Choice, the People's Choice, and the Emmys all happening in the last six weeks. Yeah. I just feel like, and God, shout out to Beef, terrific TV show.

You know, shout out to all the succession people. They're doing great. Happy for them. Elizabeth Debicki, love to see her. Eight foot nine, standing on stage. She looked phenomenal. These people just keep winning TV awards. TV, it's dead.

Did you hear? It's a wrap. I saw an interview with Denis Villeneuve and he was like, TV is all about talking. I'm not about talking. I'm about images. I'm about cinema. And we will talk about his cinema later this week. And I TV is all about talking. I'm not about talking. I'm about images. I'm about cinema. And we will talk about his cinema later this week. We sure will.

And I'm very excited about that. Just, I don't, I'm good on TV awards. Just stop putting them in my movie awards. That's my thing. Separate. Okay, but that is how you get people to actually watch your awards is because the cast of The Bear

or the cast of Succession is going to be there. But is that true? Because they front load these shows with all the TV awards because they're like, these don't matter. You're going to stick around for all the real awards that matter at the end of Succession is going to be there. But is that true? Because they front load these shows with all the TV awards because they're like, these don't matter. You're going to stick around for all the real awards that matter at the end of the show.

There were no TV awards in the final 40 minutes except for Best Cast. Yeah, I think that that is specific to SAG literally being during the Oscar voting window. And they know that's the one way they can put the thumb on the scale. Okay. I don't know.

The rest of the awards shows, I've tuned in to see what Ayo is wearing. She looks fantastic as always. So I just want to get this clear. Okay. I don't know. The rest of the awards shows, I've tuned in to see what Io is wearing. She looks fantastic, as always. So, I just want to get this clear. Yeah. You prefer television to film. I don't. I don't have any shows.

You're not watching anything right now? No, I'm literally watching no shows. Monsieur Spade ended. I didn't totally understand it, but I enjoyed it. Well, so then it sounds like a Sam Spade story. Yeah, exactly. I was like,

this does feel like Maltese Falcon. Curb your enthusiasm? Oh, I forgot about that. You know, I don't know how to turn the TV on for like 30 minutes of laughing. That's just not my routine anymore. You don't know how to turn the TV on for 30 minutes of laughing?

That's what you just said? I did. It doesn't occur to me. Interesting. This is quite a phase for you. Wait till your 40s are going to be amazing. I'm so pumped. It gets worse occur to me. Interesting. This is quite a phase for you. Wait till your 40s are going to be amazing. I'm so pumped. It gets worse.

I know. Curb is incredible. Curb is Curb. Curb not this past week, but the week before that. Elite. I have a lot of thoughts about Mr. and Mrs. Smith, but I don't really know where to put those. I have seen one episode. I watched the first episode.

I liked it a lot. And I just, there is a type of millennial affect that I understand is what all the cool millennials do. Okay. Which is. How would you describe yourself millennial wise? Not cool because I actually have energy, you know, and I speak like I'm awake and sometimes like I'm too awake. I see. And sometimes... You love to just raise a generation, like burn them to the ground. But you know what I'm talking about. I do.

And you can think of a lot of people who we know where I'm just like, okay, okay. But is this a Maya Erskine shot? No, I love Maya Erskine. Part of my problem is that she has the ability

to like really dial it up and to be... what is the movie that she did with, is it Jack Quaid? Yes. Plus One. Yes. And when she's like,

there's a dance sequence that she does that's one of the funniest things I've seen in Last Ninja. She's funny, she's dynamic, I like her a lot. But there is just something

about like the mood of that show. I'm also a huge Donald Glover fan. They are just going for the I guess they're two people who can't connect with anyone so they're sort of disaffected and so.

So I like it as basically a dead-eyed reading of the gig economy in the 2020s and that when you work in those jobs that that is how you feel about the world. So I like the idea. It's a valid interpretation and reflection to the world.

And also, once again, and I'm like, now it's time to turn on my, you know, giggle box. And I'm like, am I going to do it? It's not a very funny show. There are some funny moments.

Right, but I'm just like, is this how I want to spend an hour? This has been The Watch with Chris and Andy. Thanks so much for listening. Other highlights from the SAG Awards. The best thing that happened during the telecast, by far, was in the immediate aftermath of the Barbara Streisand clip package.

And I must say, a wonderful night for clips at the SAG Awards, which was presented by Jennifer Aniston and Bradley Cooper. The cutaway to the introduction of Barbara to Anne Hathaway, who is in tears and who is just undefeated, is undefeated at being Anne Hathaway, at actually doing exactly what you're describing, which is always bringing energy. She is not a young millennial. She is an old, clearly an elder millennial. And sometimes she just can't hide her enthusiasm, her joy, her sadness, her world of feeling before the world.

And I just, I loved it. And frankly, that is how one should respond to clips. I thought that the clip montage of Barbra Streisand was invigorating. What is your favorite Barbra Streisand movie? I love The Way We Were. Really? Yeah. Okay.

That's a good one. Well, you know, the Robert Redford of it all. How much of the Sex and the City thing influences that? Isn't Hubble, isn't that the... Yeah, yeah. Your Girl is Lovely Hubble. They talk about that. I mean, and as I told you, it's referenced in the new Jennifer Lopez movie.

Oh, yeah. I watched it. Just incoherent. Just the ravings of a madwoman. I cannot, I can it. Just incoherent. Just the ravings of a madwoman. I cannot, I can't believe that exists. She paid for it herself. Have you watched the documentary? I haven't. This is coming out. It's under embargo until Tuesday. Oh wow, well be careful. Let's not disturb the Oscar race here. Excuse me, I don't want Jennifer Lopez on my bad side.

I thought the documentary was absolutely invigorating. There's also a clip where she and Ben Affleck are wandering around set, like some studio lot where they're filming. And she's just looking at all the camera trucks full of equipment. And she's like, I'm paying for that. I'm paying for that. What the hell is that? What?

I'm paying for that. And Ben gets in and goes full camera nerd. And he's like, well, this is this lens and this lens. And she's just looking. She literally looks at the camera. It's like, I don't care. And I was, it was incredible. It was like an episode of the big picture.

My soul left my body. Yeah, it was wonderful. So. I listened to Rodrigo Prieto, the cinematographer of both Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon on WTF, Marc Maron's pod. And he talked about working with Affleck, I think on Argo. And he talked about how Affleck didn't really know very much

about the lenses and the choices that Prieto was making. Really good interview, very specific. Prieto has worked on like literally 15 tremendous movies. But he talked about this experience with Ben where he was like, Ben didn't really know

what this stuff was, but if I told him what it was and I explained it to him, he never forgot. He always, he has like a mousetrap brain.

So I think that that speaks to some of his success. You know, he's got a little bit of that like photographic, like I can speak back to you about what it is that we're talking about.

And I wonder if that has aided him in his work with Jennifer Lopez in their marriage. I think that this documentary is a fascinating study of their marriage and I recommend it. What do you think of Bradley Cooper's glasses? You know, I like them. Yeah, they look good. I thought it was one of the better. We haven't

talked about his Louis Vuitton hat or... I don't think I saw that. The giant hat that he was wearing in London with Gigi Hadid. I didn't see that. Then LeBron wore it. It's like the... You always talk to me like I look at the Daily Mail and I literally do not. This went beyond the Daily Mail. Okay, okay. This was like on the internet that all the people...

Was it like the Pharrell hat? Yeah. It was like large? It was huge. Wow. And then LeBron wore it like a week later to the... Who's that?

Who's LeBron? To the Knicks game that I think you went to. Oh, wow, really? Yes. I did go to that game. Because Juliette Littman let me know about it immediately in real time because we're following

the hat. Devastating loss for the Knicks. Very painful. They're so depleted right now. We're missing OGN and it would be so bad. Amanda, you can't even believe it. My husband and I were talking about ranking the sports that we would hope Knox plays if he wants to play sports.

Yeah. If he doesn't want to that's fine. Basketball is the bottom of my list. What? Yeah. I just I can't do it.

Honestly shame on you. It's just shame on you. The volume of the games. There are so many games. The majesty of the squeaking sneakers. Nothing matters. It's like John Williams

cutting a new Star Wars cut. And then the last three minutes take 45 minutes. I mean, just a horrid opinion. Truly, you should go to the shame den for that take. That is how I feel. Not only will Knox play basketball, but he will be an

exceptional power forward. Does the fact that he might be left-handed help him? Absolutely. It does? Yeah, James Harden is left-handed. Oh, well, I mean that. I don't really think that I want Knox falling in James Harden's footsteps. Me and Knox at Magic City? Yeah. After putting up 30-10-10?

Listen, that's okay. That part's fine. Okay. But I don't want to sit through the basketball games. Okay. And the rampant quitting. That is not ideal. Yeah.

The game has a bit of an issue. The NBA has some issues. Basketball, beautiful sport. Yeah. Anyway, what were we talking about before this? You were talking about bradley cooper's hat well i so his fashion this award season has been on and off and i thought that at the sag awards it was pretty good my guy looked good uh there was a very cool thing i don't

know about cool thing but a fun thing during the sag awards that i think that more award shows could stand to do which you know lisa and walter who's one of the stars of Abbott Elementary, did effectively like a tour montage of what it's like to be an attendee of the SAG Awards. And so cameras kind of followed her almost surveillance style as she hobnobbed with various celebrities, almost all of whom were much more famous than her. And frankly, I thought it was fascinating.

It was like watching an anthropological documentary about the way that monkeys live or something. You know, it was because the way that she had to do what you were describing earlier, bring her energy up to encounter a Robert Downey Jr. or a Bradley Cooper to seem engaging, to be memorable, so that she could exist on the food chain of celebrity, I thought was fascinating stuff.

And frankly, much better than just like looking at a still photograph in the Daily Mail. I was like, this is the real sausage getting made here. Like this is how people interact in these environments. It's true. It was a little, it had elements of curb to it, you know. Definitely. And so, which made me a little uncomfortable. There's also her potato.

So Lisa Ann Walters is to me the housekeeper and surrogate mother figure from Nancy Meyers' Parent Trap. That's right. Because I haven't done

Abbott Elementary. Funny show. But you don't want to watch 30-minute Gigglebox moments. I tried. I actually tried with that and I was like, I've watched this pilot.

Now what do I do? Go for a walk? Have a sandwich? What do you expect to happen after that? It was like 8.30 at night. And I was kind of like, where do we go from here? Go to bed. How about that? This being your true struggle is incredible. Anyway, she was doing like her style of comedy and the way she was going for it, you know. She's brassy. She's brassy.

Yeah. And so I was like, okay, enough. But it was definitely interesting. Do you think that this is confirmation that Netflix is effectively, if not broadcast television, now basic cable? Yeah. You know, for years, the SAG Awards aired on T, now basic cable. Yeah. You know, for years, the SAG Awards aired on TNT and TBS. Right. And, you know, Netflix has been trending towards being this licensing more and more content from other studios.

It sounds like they're going to be pulling back on how many movies that they make. Scott Stuber is out now. It seems like maybe their award strategy is lessening a little bit. You know, they're going for the fancy cheeseburger. You know, Bella Bajaria sitting at that. Was she at the maestro table? I think she was at the maestro table. Maybe at the beef table.

I can't remember which one. So this just kind of felt like, oh, yeah, like they're putting on a tennis match this week. Yeah. You know, like this is now just kind of becoming. It's the catch-all. If you have Netflix, then you can see most of what's available, which is how I think generations younger than us are seeing it. Are seeing Netflix. You turn on the TV and you always turn on Netflix. Yeah. But that was something that was long, this has been long bandied about, but it didn't feel real for

me personally until I watched this show. Well, that's because you're an awards show freak. I don't know that it... They've only had a very small number of live programs. It's been basically like reality show after shows. One of which went disastrously wrong, if I recall. It did. They like broke the machine. Dave Chang's been doing a super fun show called Dinner Time, where he has like two celebrities come and sit while he cooks live for them.

I guess they're going to do more and more stuff like this. But this is something that is a TV show that has been on television for 20 years. Right. And it is basically, aside from the occasional F-bomb, they've just ported it into this space. And I would imagine that more people now watch it than did on TNT. Oh, for sure. I would love to know how many people watched it. But I am sure

just because it's, you know, available worldwide, as they said. And also the way you can watch it on delay, which of course, like if you had TiVo

or DVR or something, you could do that in the past. Right, but you had to record it and being like, oh yeah, it's the SAG Awards. I mean, the fact that they were on Saturday night instead of Sunday

was sort of surprising to me, but it didn't matter. I can't remember if they're usually Saturday or Sunday. I know it's always a gauntlet weekend because the independent spirits are often on the same instead of Sunday. It was sort of surprising to me, but it didn't matter. I can't remember if they're usually Saturday or Sunday. I know it's always a gauntlet weekend because the independent spirits are often on the same weekend. Anyway, I think that the awards show of it

probably makes it more significant to you and me than the average Netflix user. No doubt. But yes, it's another notch in their belt. Let's talk about the PGAs quickly, which is always considered the strongest precursor for the Best Picture race.

Oppenheimer also won. So Oppenheimer has now won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Critics' Choice, the SAG Award, the DGA Award, and the PGA.

This is just the 11th time in history that a film has won the SAG, DGA, and PGA together. This is over. Is there any chance? You don't want to say take in the sheets. This is over. Like, is there any chance? You don't want to say take in the sheets?

This is over? I wrote take in the sheets. That was good. That was a good outline moment from you. Yeah. You know, you don't have to do every joke.

You know what I mean? That's something I learned from the great comedians. You know, you don't have to read. Just because you wrote it doesn't mean you have to share it, but I'm glad you enjoyed it. Is there any chance?

You know what? Let's save it. We'll save it for our final Best Picture Power Rankings. And there's always like a chance. Because I want to know what you think is kind of in two, three, four right now. Because that's what's relevant to that part. I did want to ask you an over-under question. Do you know what over-under means, right? So I, yes, I do. Okay. So eight and a half Oscars for Oppenheimer. Okay. Which has 13 nominations. All right. So let's just. Over or under. Okay. Which has 13 nominations. All right, so let's just- Over or under.

Okay, let's just count. Best picture, best director, best actor, best supporting actor. That's four. Yes. Best editing, five. Best score, six. Adapted screenplay is an interesting one. I don't know about that.

That one is a coin toss, I think. What are the obvious ones I'm forgetting? Cinematography. Oh, cinematography, of course. Sure, seven. To me, those seven are close to locks, which is crazy to say that there are seven locks. After that, not sound.

And... Sound is... I know, but... That is a real race. Because it's a very split contingent of people who have seen and appreciate and admire the intention behind the zone of interest. And then everybody else who saw it. That's a good point.

So I'm not ready to say that that's the zone of interest for sure. But I don't feel confident being like, yes, that's an obvious one. So I'm still at seven. Let's see. What else could it pick up? I don't think makeup. I feel like production design and costume will go to Poor Things or Barbie or some. Probably Poor Things.

I don't think that it's going to win costume design. Production design is an interesting one. You know, Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things all have exceptional production design but when there's a wave like this sometimes everything starts going

in its direction so it's very possible that that goes in its direction and then also that adapted screenplay goes in its direction and if that happens that gets us to nine

right but if those two don't then it's seven. So I guess I'm going with under. Okay. Under eight and a half. So you're saying eight or seven. That's not how over under works.

That's true. So I'm saying under. Very well. I'm glad I created this game for us. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse wins animated motion picture. Go ahead, Sean. Are you excited? Are you feeling conflicted?

I'm feeling very conflicted. Yeah, sure. Um, The Boy and the Heron won at the BAFTA. So, again, very similar to Best Actress. We have a real two-horse race between Spider-Man and Hayao Miyazaki. Um, I don't really know. I mean, they both would be good wins. In the back of my head, it's like you don't give Lord of the Rings the two towers the

award. You give the Return of the King the award. And this kind of feels like what they would do with Spider-Man. However, Spider-Man already won. Yeah. The last animated Spider-Man movie won Best Animated Feature. And that also makes me think, well, they're not going to give it to it two times in a row. And Hayao Miyazaki, he may never make another movie.

Even though that movie, you know, is probably incoherent to people who are half watching it on the Academy screener portal. So, I don't know. I'm torn. I don't really have a preference, ultimately. You'll be happy either way. I think I will be. You'll also feel some regret either way. Well, that's just me in a nutshell. Yeah, I know. American Symphony won documentary.

This film was not nominated at the Academy Awards. Yes. So I think this was widely considered the biggest quote unquote snub in the documentary category. Actually, when Tom Hoyer comes on, I want to talk to him a little bit about documentary and how that branch works and how they nominate films. They're freaking out right now. They're all very angsty. It's a complicated time in the world of feature nonfiction, is what I would say. And I think that the documentary branch is making some choices to represent its point of view

on what is the best work. Independent Spirit Awards, I didn't watch them this year. I do really like this show, but I just was not able to. Aidy Bryant hosted. Yeah, they're like early after or late afternoon. Yes, I believe was not able to. Aidy Bryant hosted. Yeah, they're like early after or late afternoon.

Yes, I believe 2 p.m. Pacific, which is a tricky time during the day. The big winner was Past Lives, which won both Best Feature and Best Director. Very nice to see. Wonderful. Is Past Lives not going to win any Oscars? Probably not. Okay. Jeffrey Wright won Best Lead Performance.

Dave-I-Enjoy Randolph, the only person to win at every award show. Right. She won every award. We didn't even mention her at the SAG Awards. Oh, God, yeah. Yeah, but she won at the SAG Awards. Gave a lovely speech. She did.

She did. This is one of the more dominant runs in recent award show history. East Mount Airy Zone. Is that true? Yeah. Oh, good for you. Which I'm claiming by proxy, but I spend every Thanksgiving in it. You didn't grow up next door to Dave, I enjoy Randall?

No, I didn't. Okay. But I spend every Thanksgiving in her neighborhood, so. Dominic Sessa, also from the Holdovers, won Breakthrough Performance. In a word, I'm just begging the Academy. I agree. I'm just begging them. Yeah.

Just do this. Wouldn't it be nice to have Dominic Sessa on stage? Also, my guys's fits continue. He looked good. Oh, yeah. What was he wearing? I mean, he's still doing like the full,

I don't know if it was actually Tom Ford, but you know, full like Tom Ford strokes. A well-tailored black suit. Yeah. And the hair askew in a fashionable way.

How do you feel about hair height on men? You asked me this last night as regarding Timothee Chalamet. Yeah. It's been on my mind lately. In an introduction

to a film that he gave. Yeah. A film coming out that will remain nameless. You can guess which one it is. That film is imaginary

about a murderous imaginary doll that Timothee Chalamet is promoting worldwide. I think if you have the hair to back it up, it's great. Okay. What does that mean? To back it up or to push it up? Both, I guess, because you don't want the hair to, it needs to feel full throughout, right? You don't want it to look like you've propped it up to cover

any absence of hair, right? So you need to be able to back it up. You need to have it in the front as well. So you're anti-comb over? Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I am. Really? So if I were balding, if I had a large... If you're balding, you have to bick it immediately.

Bick it immediately? Yeah, you do. Immediately? Yeah. What is the threshold for immediately? Now, this is podcasting. What? Meaning like I wake up one morning, I get in the shower, and I've got four hairs in my hand?

No. But, like, once... I mean, that's part of life. Hair loss is part of life for everyone. I see. As you age, just so you know. Can relate, yeah. But, no, once it's noticeable during the day.

Once you're, once you are taking measures to try to distract from it, then you gotta bick it. You gotta live out loud.

How do you feel about, like, the oils that reportedly help it grow? Oh, like the Nutrafol and all that sort of stuff? I,

I have not tried it myself. I've, I know people who really like Nutrafol. Women, I don't know about. I haven't really investigated men's hair growth. I'd like to tell you a little story. I went to the Vista Theater on Tuesday during Wellness Week. How was your Wellness Week? It was fine. Okay. Great. Mine was. Um, I went to the Vista to go see Flower Drum Song, a movie I'd never seen. You texted me. Yeah. 1960s musical starring Nancy Kwan. Really enjoyable movie. Not the kind of movie that would be made today and certainly has

problematic aspects. I'll just put that out there. Nevertheless, enjoyed myself. Um, the Vista, much like the New Beverly, which is also owned by Quentin Tarantino, often does a little pre-show. So they'll show trailers for upcoming movies, the vintage trailers. They'll also often show a cartoon. And they showed Rabbit of Seville, which is a riff on Barber of Seville. And it's all about Bugs Bunny being chased by Elmer Fudd, but then he draws Elmer into an opera house where they're performing an opera. And that opera is all about a barber. And at a certain point, Bugs Bunny puts a certain like lotion on Elmer's head while he's in the barber seat. And Elmer Fudd grows hair.

And I got to say, it was hilarious. I love Bugs Bunny. And I just thought of it because we were talking about hair growth. May I tell you about my Looney Tunes parody? Yeah. That I saw when I went to the New Beverly. Yeah.

Since we last recorded, I guess, to see Casablanca. That was my delayed Valentine's Day date with my husband. It was awesome. And so they showed

Carrot Blanca. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which was really funny. Incredible. I enjoyed it, yeah. What a great match for Casablanca.

It was good. So it was Bugs Rick? Yes. So then... Bugs Rick? Yes. So then and Who was Ilsa? I don't remember. I mean I'm not

you know I'm not as conversant in the This was your first animated cartoon you've ever seen. Right? Is that right? I like Looney Tunes but I don't remember the rest.

A couple of other wins at The Spirits. Cord Jefferson won Best Screenplay, which I think is interesting, and I think Cord has a chance to win Adapted Screenplay, which is something we'll talk more about next week, I think. Sammy Birch won Best First Screenplay for May-December.

She's also nominated at the Oscars. Avey Rockwell won Best First Feature for 1001, another award that I wish they would give out at the Oscars. Yes. Another movie I really like a lot. WGAs were announced. The Writers Guild delayed their nominations in part because of the strikes. And so, you know, typically a pretty meaningful precursor, despite the fact that the nominees don't always match with the Oscars, has been muted this year.

The nominees for original are Air,, the holdovers may December and past lives. That's particularly chaotic because Barbie is not eligible and original at the Oscars air is not nominated there. Um, and then adapted screenplay is American fiction. Are you there? God, it's me, Margaret killers of the flower moon, Naya and Oppenheimer. Um, Naya. That's weird. Anyway, this is an odd bunch. Did you think much about this? Did you spend sleepless hours after viewing one 30-minute program of comedy? I forgot to look it up. And when you said, are you ready to record? I rapidly scrolled down to the bottom of the dock and was like, let me just read these nominees real fast. You know what? It's nice to win awards from your peers. So I wish everyone well. I liked most of these movies. Thanks for preparing for this pod. You had an entire week off. Thank you so much.

Speaking of screenplay, there were a few interesting results at the BAFTAs, which was not this past weekend, but the weekend before that, but we haven't recorded since then. The most notable ones to me are those screenplay wins. Right. Which went, original went to Anatomy of a Fall. Yeah. And adapted went to American Fiction. Now, as we said, BAFTA, a little hard to tell how predictive it is at this point, but

I think you've been on the Anatomy of a Fall could win original screenplay train, right? Well, you did not put in a segment for the Cesar Awards, speaking of preparing for this podcast. Geez. Well, you watched the entire nine-hour telecast. I sure did. How was it? Without subtitles, because as you know,

my conversational French is flawless. I mean, Anatomy of a Fall cleaned up with the Cesar Awards, which is wonderful and deserving. But I do think people are psyched on this movie did you also see kirsten dunst loved anatomy of a fall you don't say yeah do you think she heard about it on the big picture i hope not is that where it was recommended to her perhaps god kiki if you're listening i just i promise i'll do better stay strong kiki come through for a movie draft

yeah so so it has the support of the Baftas France and Kirsten Dunst yep all the greats so I don't know all the colonial powers keep an eye out

it's true I yeah original screenplay and adapted screenplay are fun ones to talk about and I think the other ones you know I already mentioned that animated film

we had a split there with Boy and the Heron and best documentary went to 20 Days in Mariupol yeah which in the back of my mind has Documentary went to 20 Days in Mariupol. Yeah. Which, in the back of my mind, has been by far the frontrunner in the documentary race.

But again, this is an unusual category. It is. So it's hard to say. That's how I spent my wellness week, actually, is I watched all the documentaries, including 20 Days in Mariupol.

Did you? Which was, I mean, astonishing. We'll talk more about it. It's an incredibly upsetting film. At times, unwatchable. Yes. But you have to watch. There's a sequence in the first 30 minutes that is hard to cope with.

Yeah. Yeah. I do think that the impact and power of that movie is hard to get past. I mean, that movie winning Best Documentary and more people seeing it is actually significant in terms of what cinema can do for the world in a way that few things are. Agreed. It's available now to stream on PBS, actually,

if people would like to check out 20 Days in Mary Pole. We recommend it. I haven't had a chance to talk about it too much on the show. Okay. Well, that's all the precursors.

Any other César thoughts? Was there anything else relevant that happened there? You know. Who hosted? Pepe Le Pew? Yeah. They had some croissants.

Nice. Excellent. That's great love the French love France would like to return to France one day me too

when do you think that will be I don't know I mean did we miss the registration for Cannes um I don't know I gotta get my Telluride

tickets this week yeah oh this week already yeah March 1st I'm very excited okay can't wait to return

to my native lands of Colorado will you actually the aff. Will you actually attend amazing dinners with chefs? Who can say? You know, maybe Netflix has another mid-tier awards film to show me at 9 p.m. on a Friday that I have to have to go see for no good reason. Do you want to do one final Best Picture power rankings for this season? Yes, sure. What if you said no? Would we just cancel it? So it's actually been a while since we've done this.

We haven't done this since January 11th. I think we pulled back a little bit on the Oscars coverage this year because we were like, oh, geez, this sure seems settled. On January 11th, this was the rundown of awards. And this should tell you a little bit about how behind we were. So I fought for... We.

Yes. This show is a collaboration. Right. Go ahead. All that work you did, not knowing about the WGA nominations. You know?

I was too busy paying attention to the people of France. Okay. So number 10, we had May, December, which of course did not even get nominated for Best Picture. This was before the nominations came out. I fought for May, December.

You fought for May, December. Foolishly. The critics film of the bunch, even though there are a lot of good critics films this year. May, December didn't make the cut. Instead, the zone of interest made the cut. So we will address that when we do our rankings. Number nine was Anatomy of a Fall,

Eight Past Lives, Seven Maestro, Six American Fiction, Five Barbie, Number nine was anatomy of a fall, eight past lives, seven maestro, six American fiction, five Barbie, four killers of the flower moon, three poor things, two the holdovers, and one Oppenheimer.

So the thing that jumps out to me here, aside from obviously we have to add the zone of interest, and not only do we have to add it, but where does it go? The thing that jumps out to me here is that we had anatomy of a fall at nine. Yeah.

Because we weren't even sure if it was going to go in. And now I'm like, is it top five? Yes. That's pretty wild. What is wrong with you? It's like a French courtroom drama. Yeah, no, I know.

These movies do not compete at the Oscars. Sure, but people like it. And once again, an international academy. Yes, it is an international. I'm not criticizing the movie. I love the movie. Do you like how I just open my arms to the world every time I say an international academy. Yes, it is an international. I'm not criticizing the movie. I love the movie. Do you like how I just, I open my arms to the world

every time I say an international academy? That's me including the world. Yeah, you're like the greatest showwoman. Number 10, what do you think it should be? What is running in last place at the Oscars right now? Oh, this is so mean. I mean, it could be any number of movies. Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro.

I think it's Maestro. Yeah. I think it's Maestro. Yeah. And that's unfortunate. Really not the award season you wanted if you're a member of the Maestro team. Really has not gone well. Did you see the meme of Carey Mulligan clapping at the BAFTAs?

I did not. Like the new Nicole Kidman clap? No, I didn't see that. Was that on the Daily Mail? No, it's just like on TikTok. It's on the internet. Like log on. Not on the internet.

Join us. I'm honestly not. You know? I'm honestly, I know a lot of people think I'm on the internet a lot. I've moved on in many ways. That's cool.

Yeah. I'm strictly watching 1960s studio musicals these days. That's where my life is. Okay. Anyway, she claps funny. Do you think she regrets being in the film Maestro?

No. She's very good in that movie. She's good in it. Complicated movie. I'd like to revisit it at some point. I liked it a lot. I do believe it's at number 10.

Okay. Is that fair? Yeah. Okay. So Maestro's at number 10. What's number nine? Killer's the Flower Moon? That's crazy.

I know. I think you might be right. I know. People think it's too long. That's on them. I agree. I think American fiction might be behind Killers of the Flower Moon. I don't know.

It at least has juice in one category. That's, well, Lily Gladstone. Sure. I mean, Best Actress. That's a very big category. Okay. I don't know. It at least has juice in one category. That's, well, Lily Gladstone. Sure. I mean, best actress. That's a very big category. Okay. All right. Okay.

I would do American Fiction 8 and Killers of the Flower Moon. Excuse me, American Fiction at 9 and Killers of the Flower Moon at 8. I'm fine with that.

Does that work? Yeah. What's at 7? Barbie. Which arguably could be at 9. Or at 2. Eh. You don't think so? No. Which arguably could be at nine. Or at two. You don't think so?

No. Jack just shook his head. I'm liking your constant feedback. Thank you. You're like our New York Times election night meter. Just being like, nope. That's right. The unspoken ombudsman.

You think it could be at two? I'm just saying I think that if we're gonna have the discussion about you are causing the inflation of the girl era and that is why all of us are not gonna be able to retire all part of my plan all part of my plan there'll be no fire you know there'll be no independent early retirement for all the Barbies. Well, it's one of those things where it could be 10 or it could be 2 in my head. Yeah. Because, and let's wait to talk to Tom about this.

Okay. Because the way that the voting works is obviously very different than the way that most voting works in our common lives. And so because of Ranked Choice, you never know. And it works so well in our common lives. I mean, it doesn't, which is why, another reason I wanted Tom to come and talk to us. So I'll go with Barbie at seven. Okay. But I'm going to caveat it that I feel like past lives is weaker than Barbie.

It at least won the Independent Spirit Award. Sure. Who voted on that? Barbie won like best comedy at the People's Choice Awards or some shit. Like it won the like made up award America Ferreira won

best performance at the People's Choice Awards what is this like okay it's very silly America Ferreira nominated for an Academy Award

did you know that I thought she was very good in Barbie I liked it a lot she's a good actor you know absolutely Wesley Morris our friend did a great best performance position that? I thought she was very good in Barbie. I liked it a lot. She's a good actor. Absolutely.

Wesley Morris, our friend, did a great Best Performances-ish collection for the New York Times Magazine, I think. He did. He'll be with us next week to give us some alternative Oscars. And he voiced my thoughts on America Ferrera very well. Well, what are they? Why don't you just repeat them back verbatim? It was just, you know, some people hated that speech and met some people, teared up, and he was part of the latter, and so was I. What if you're neither?

Like, I definitely didn't hate it, but I also did not cry. Well, then vote for something else, Sean. Like what? This is kind of a Biden-Trump situation. Okay. I would put Barbie at six, and I would put Past Lives at seven.

I got to be honest with you. Okay. Is the Past Lives thing, is it a sentimental thing you're holding on to? Or do you think that the affection for it is stronger than the affection for Barbie? I think that the affection among voters and quote unquote film people, because there are a lot of... Martin Scorsese and Christopher Nolan have both gone out

of their way to say that the best thing that one of the best things they've seen in recent years in recent months is past lives. You're right. They did.

You know, and Werner Herzog is out here being like the version of hell is Barbie, you know? So I do think in terms of how people

feel about these movies, there is there's a more concentrated group of people being like past past lives, astonishing. Who would in an Academy or an Oscar voting setting take it more seriously than Barbie. Do you think that when Barbie goes to the real world, she watches Werner Herzog movies? Yeah, they show them on a loop at the gynecologist's office. Yeah, I'll bet they do. watches Werner Herzog movies.

Yeah, they show them on a loop at the gynecologist's office. Yeah, I'll bet they do. Would not know about that. Okay, so past lives is at six. The big five. Now, do you think that five through two are fungible or do they feel strong?

They feel firmly in place. Those movies include The Zone of Interest, The Holdovers, Poor Things, and... Anatomy of a Fall. Anatomy of a Fall.

I think Holdovers is at five. Interesting. How the Mighty Have Fallen. Yeah. Great movie. People enjoyed it. Is that how you feel?

I liked it. I liked it too. Yeah, it was a great movie. People enjoyed it. Is that how you feel? I liked it. I liked it too. Yeah, it was a great movie. People enjoyed it. They need to hold the Oscars on like January 6th so that I can stop having conversations like the holdovers. I liked it. How many times have I said those words out loud in the last three months? Roughly 78?

Yeah. And then... Poor Things and Anadol Fall zone of interest is an interesting... I feel like all three have surged. Poor Things, of course, has been a big success. It's done very well at the box office

for a specialty film. People seem to really admire it. Even though Emma Stone may not win, you know, we have consecrated her, right? She's now on a new level. One of the greats, yeah. Yeah, so that's a credit to it.

Yorgos has announced like multiple movies now. He's got another movie coming out later this year. Ari Aster's producing his movie after that. Did you see that? I did. How do you feel about that? Ari and Yorgos together, two beautiful, weird guys putting weird stuff on screen? It's important to find your people in life, you know?

That's like when me and CR linked up. Like the Predator handshake. Jesus Christ. That's Yorgos and Arya. Yorgos and Arya should recreate the Predator handshake. RIP Carl Weathers, by the way. We didn't get a chance to talk about that. What a fucking shame.

Another goaded individual. Between... I don't think Anatomy of a Fall is going to win Best Picture. I don't either. Let's put it that way.

That's a bold call. And I don't think Four Things is going to win Best Picture. And I was texting you about this, and I don't think that The Zone of Interest

is going to win Best Picture, but I was trying to learn about gambling one night because I ran out of TV to watch. And I texted you being like, can I put money on the zone of interest ethically? And also, how do I do that? And do I understand these odds correctly?

So I rung up Kamala Harris after you texted me. I checked in with her. She said it would be unlawful for you to wager on the zone of interest. So I'm just conveying that to you now. That's good. I do live my life by what Kamala. She's the master of the Senate. Yeah. I'm not sure if you knew that in her work as a vice president. And she loves Gen Z.

So I don't think it's going to happen. I was like, I don't know. If I had 10 bucks and I could put it on zone of interest and then make however many dollars, I didn't do that. For a number of reasons, including putting money on zone of interest to win an award and then profiting from that just felt wrong on a number of levels. I'm sort of not commenting on this because of what you just said. I mean, I was just like, that feels bad. It would be insane. Obviously, there are people doing that.

Yeah. I think the betting markets got a little chaotic because people were looking for a surprise upset. You know, The Zone of Interest is a movie about shutting out what's going on

in the world around you and obviously what's going on in the world around us right now. Everything happening in Israel, Gazaine has been uh at the forefront of uh international news there was a protester outside of there's a group of protesters outside of the independent spirit awards or protesting that award show to um draw more attention to palestine uh there's obviously a sentiment that strongly supports the idea of recognizing

a work like this. And films about the Holocaust in particular have history at the Academy Awards. Steven Spielberg recently came forward and said that he thought The Zone of Interest

was the best Holocaust film he had seen since his own film, which is an interesting way of framing that. Yeah, an incredible sentence. But I do think that there's strong support for that movie But I do think that there's strong support for that movie.

I do think that, as you pointed out a few weeks back, there's also an acknowledgement in the same way that Emma Stone just kind of went up a level. Everybody's like,

Jonathan Glazer, one of the great fine artists, cinema makers that we have in the world right now. I still think it would be stunning if a movie like this won Best Picture. It won both international film or non-English language film and British film at the Baptist.

At the Baptist, it did. And notably in at least one of those acceptance speeches, the producers referenced specifically Gaza. And that this film is very much a film of its moment as well as a film about the Holocaust and things in our past. So there is an awareness around it. And I do also think just like more people are seeing it. And certainly more people have seen it since January 11th or the last time that we did these rankings. You know, it's an A24 film. They sometimes have a history of coming out of somewhere. I think the international support for it is what would push it over. I don't think it's going to happen. But I would put it at number two for that reason.

If anything, we're going to defeat Oppenheimer. I think it's probably, that's the best chance. I don't know. Again, it feels gross being like, talking about that film in these terms. But this is an Oscars hot cast. So you put $12,000? I put no money on it. I don't know how to gamble.

Okay. I agree with you. I agree with everything you said. I do think that it is the film that has the best chance to right now based on what's happening in the world. Weirdly, Oppenheimer being the kind of movie that it is, which is also a movie about the kind of danger and history of violence in world events, and also a film that is from like a British-American director who has never been recognized. Like if it was a different kind of a year, if it was like The Power of the dog was the front runner. Yeah. I actually think a zone of interest surprise would be way more likely. Totally. But it's because Oppenheimer is so. Yeah. Oppenheimer is in that like,

it's Slumdog Millionaire. It's The Return of the King. It's Gladiator. It's like there's movies sometimes that come along where you're just like, get out of the way. Yeah. I agree. That's going to run the table. And I feel like because of that a surprise is extremely unlikely but it's interesting so would you say then Anatomy of a Fall is at four and Poor Things is at three yeah probably yes okay do you really think Anatomy of a Fall is going to win original screenplay I mean it it really could people are pretty wild about that movie okay so the history of original screenplay the thing I'm curious about, has there ever been a film not in the English language to win this category? Didn't Parasite win? Parasite did win.

Yeah. Because I remember that is when the night turned. And we kind of looked at each other like, oh, interesting. Like this might be happening. Yes. Talk to her won in 2002 i'd forgotten about that the patreon motive our movie yeah this is extremely rare for it to happen but it's a different academy especially with respect to international films it definitely is and i still

hold that the screenplay categories are where people are really jazzed about a film but it's not going to win anything else. Here's an interesting win. In 1966, A Man and a Woman won. Okay. Which is a Claude Lelouch movie. Also nominated that year, Blow Up, also an international film. The Fortune Cookie, Billy Wilder movie.

Cartoon, also notably the name of the murdered horse in The Godfather which is a British film and The Naked Prey a Cornel Wild movie that barely has any dialogue in it it's really strange no offense but

1966 has absolutely no bearing on what's gonna happen this year just like movie history just looking through the history Divorce Italian style one okay

so there have been some winners there have been some winners I think it could happen The Holdovers is also obviously in original divorce Italian style one. Okay. So there have been some winners. There have been some winners. I think it could happen. The Holdovers is also obviously an original May-December. I don't think May-December's gonna win. I don't either, but I'm just, you know,

naming movies that you liked. To me, it feels like The Holdovers, Past Lives, and Anatomy of a Fall are the movies that are fighting in that category. They're all nominated for Best Picture.

It could be Past Lives, but it really kind of feels like Anatomy of a fall are the movies that are fighting in that category they're all nominated it could be past lives but it really kind of feels like anatomy of a fall has the juice over past lives right now is the fact that giamatti is not winning an actor mean that the holdovers has a better chance to win in another category besides supporting actress i don't think so. Because Payne didn't get the director nomination, but Justin Trudeau did. Interesting. Okay. You know, there's a history of that as well. You give the director who's nominated and not going to win the screenplay award. There's no chance that Poor Things wins Best Picture, right?

I don't think so. Okay. So then our power rankings at this point are on February 26th Maestro American Fiction Killers of the Flower Moon Barbie

Past Lives The Holdovers Anatomy of a Fall Poor Things The Zone of Interest and Oppenheimer. You feel good? I do.

I mean no one's grading us on this. You think you'll ever see Oppenheimer again? Yeah. Probably. When? I do. I mean, no one's grading us on this. You think you'll ever see Oppenheimer again? Yeah, probably. When? I don't know. Knox will have to watch it for school or something.

You think they'll put that movie on when substitute teachers come into history class? And they'll be like, here's Florence Pugh riding Cillian Murphy. You know, or... Oh my god, I forgot about that. I had blocked that out. Give Florence Pugh something to do in movies. That's what I have to say. Strong disagree.

I think she's doing wonderfully right now. Okay. She's wearing things in Dune Part 2 that I'm extremely excited about. Okay. I look forward to discussing with you. Okay, I feel good about this. Oppenheimer's going to win.

We're going to do pods next week about the Oscars. I'm very sorry to everyone that we're going to continue to do this, but this is what we do on the show, even though Oppenheimer is untackleable right now. All right, let's go to our conversation with Tom Boyer is here, voting awards expert, long-time employee, instrumental figure in evolving how voting works at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Tom, thanks for being here. No problem. Thank you for having me. So, Tom, we wanted you to be here because we joke that the Academy is sometimes like a shadowy cabal and that voting is sometimes, I think, confusing to people. Even fans of the Academy Awards don't necessarily know how it works.

Also, it's changed a lot over the years. Maybe you can, well, why don't you start by explaining what it is that you did in the Academy, especially in recent years with regard to voting? Sure. Yeah, so I was at the Academy for 15, almost 16 years. I grew up in the organization. I, you know, was always a film fan and, you know, small town Ohio, loved the movies, loved, you know, loved the Oscars since I was young. And so when I had the chance to work at the Academy, I jumped at the chance and was able to just kind of get in there and help wherever I could. And then over the years, you know, I was there during, you know, from 2007 on and, you know, the industry has gone through such changes,

the organization has gone through such changes. I was very lucky to be there at some key times where I was able to grow and evolve in the organization. And, you know, I started initially working, you know, you know, I worked on awards categories, specific categories or branches that I worked closely with. And then by the time that I uh you know uh by the end of my term there i was overseeing the awards administration process which is basically like how films qualify the awards rules process submissions voting um all the internal mechanics to how you get to the awards process that i don't think people realize uh that involves stuff so like what that, what does that mean for us? Like meaning helping films qualify for the Oscar?

Like what goes into that process? So there's a certain awards rules for each category that determine, you know, how films qualify and, and filmmakers and distributors have to qualify their films for consideration. There's a submission process. There's all these pieces to it to ensure that, you know, films are considered by our voting members. And so, you know, that is an entire administrative process that we work closely with all of our different industry partners.

I realize I'm saying we. Oh. Yeah. So let me rephrase that again. Just want a little bit more about the mechanics of it. Yeah, Yeah. Basically like let's say I'm

I'm a movie that has played at a couple of festivals but I'm not a big studio release. Right. Maybe I'm a documentary.

Mm-hmm. I'm Sean the documentary. Okay. It's a riveting story. Just a scrolling spreadsheet for 90 minutes. It's

it's it's been critically acclaimed. But maybe I don't even have distribution in the U.S. at this point. But I want to qualify because I feel like I would have a chance. I feel like I deserve to be in the running for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature. So what do I do? So every year, the Academy publishes awards rules that give each category has different qualifying requirements and process by which a film can qualify. So you would need as a filmmaker to look at those rules, determine how you would then go through the process of qualifying. And then inevitably, as there are questions through that journey,

that is where the Academy staff comes in. And that's where, you know, when I was there, we would all then help explain the process to filmmakers and help, you know, oversee the submission process to ensure that the films meet the qualifying requirements and then are considered by the voting members. So I think the key thing is there's the process by which films qualify, the way that they are submitted for consideration, and then from that point on, the films are then viewed on by the voting members, and then that is how they are considered then for the voting process.

So we have, you know, over the late years that I was there, we developed the Academy Screening Room, which is the online streaming platform that the Academy developed. And, you know, when I started there, we were doing paper submissions, DVD shipments, and we had film canisters. And now, you know, online submissions, online streaming platform. And the key, I think that was really a key game changer was that that ensured that members all worldwide can participate equally, especially members when they're on location. You know, they didn't have

to just be based in Los Angeles or certain cities in order to vote and go to screening. So that ensured that we had members worldwide voting. And that was, you know, especially when the pandemic hit, we were very fortunate that we had already developed that and built that up to be running with the members. Can you talk about that site a little bit? I've never seen it. I've heard tell. I've heard it's like a premium experience. And just like that there's so much on there that it really is like its own like film library because it submissions from all over the world for every single international feature.

But I've heard it's really nice. And I'm- Well, good. I'm glad to hear that. No, no, no, I know. But I haven't seen it. So, yeah, I mean, that's where, you know, films can be made available to all voting members.

And then also there's documentaries, there's international, there's shorts, there's all the different category, animation, all the different categories that are available to the voting members in those categories. So it's what I really, you know, was really proud about it is it ensures some level, you know, an equal level of accessibility. And that has been a key aspect for documentaries, shorts, animation and others that have been able to, you know, they qualify, but then they're able to be available to all the voting members in that category. Can I ask you a follow-up question that you may not be able to answer and that's okay? Okay. Do you guys keep stats on what's watched on the site? I can't answer that.

Yeah. So how does this now intersect with ranked choice vote voting? Because like over time, especially right around when you joined joined we've seen the number of nominees in best picture grow it was changeable up to 10 for a period of time now it is locked in at 10 right um from from our vantage point we you know we felt like that decision was made because certain films maybe weren't recognized in certain years the dark knight is always pointed out as like the big example of if that film had been eligible in a 10 nominee circumstance, maybe it would have been recognized. But Ranked Choice also, I think, pretty significantly changes the results that we get and the way that the voting works. Right.

But I still feel like it's a little bit of a mystery to people. is a good example to talk about ranked choice voting, because when that was implemented, obviously, when you have 10 nominees, you want to ensure that the film that ultimately wins Best Picture is the majority consensus choice of the entire voting membership. And just to clarify, Best Picture, all 10,000 voting members vote for, you know, are voting here for finals in all categories, but in particular for Best Picture, they're all ranking their choices. So they don't have to vote for just one. Now, the way it works on their ballot, they vote for their first choice. So the one that is their winner, they put number one, but then they're able to also give alternate selections. So they're able to vote second, third, fourth. They can rank all 10. They can vote for however many they want. The key aspect is that, you know, the first place, the key aspect is that they're able to support more

than just one film, right? And then on the other side of that, you know, this process ensures that you have a film that gets past the 50% mark of majority support in order to be the winner. So for example, when they do the tabulation process, PricewaterhouseCoopers does the tabulation process, just to clarify. When they do the tabulation, they will look at all the first place votes of all the votes submitted, right? If a film has over 50% right at the outset, they're the winner, right? So they may not need to do any sort of the re-tabulation or the next steps of the tabulation process if one film wins it outright from the beginning.

It's more if a film doesn't get to that majority is when then there is a retabulation process, okay? So there might be three or four films. They all get 30 to 40 percent on the first place ballot. No one gets to that 50 percent. So then they go a process of elimination. So then you have 10 films you would look at, which is the 10th film that has the least first place votes. That film would then be eliminated. They would then go to everyone's second choice on their ballot and redistribute those ballots and then see where the totals are. If no film still isn't past that 50% mark, then they go to the ninth film, another process of elimination. Eliminate the ninth film, redistribute those ballots. And it's-

And so, I'm so sorry. So when you're eliminating the 10th film, everybody who put the 10th film at number one- Correct. Then- They go to their number two choice. They go to their number two choice. Got it. Okay. So for example, if you didn't do that, their votes would just, their ballots would already be eliminated, right? And this allows those voters to put their support behind a second film.

It allows the voter, really, to better reflect more of what they love versus just voting for one. So that process of elimination is how they then retabulate until a film crosses that 50% threshold to where you know that a majority of the voters support this film above the other films. Got it. So like I said, sometimes some films might be the winner on the first ballot. Right. Some films might be more when maybe we see that when it's a, you know, when there's a really close race and there are multiple films that might win, chances are it's probably

going to be a, you know, a redistribution process of ballots. Right, right, right. To get to that point. Yeah. So I know we had talked about there was a number of years ago when I was there, we produced a short five minute video that kind of explained how ranked choice voting works in this process. And so I'll give a plug out for that. And, you know, that's available on YouTube still.

But I think that helped kind of visually see how in order to win, you had to have a film reach that threshold. It's really worth watching that video and we'll share it on social. I think the thing that is still a little mysterious to people is why the decision was made to go this route. Was it so that every ballot was somehow more included in the process in a way so that you weren't just kind of junking a ballot for a film that wasn't garnering enough votes? Right. It's to ensure that you wouldn't have, like, let's say there were 10 films. Let's say 10 films all divided evenly. You could have a film with 15 to 20% of the vote technically be the winner if you didn't use this process. It was to ensure that you didn't have the drastic outliers, that you had a majority consensus choice. Certainly when you

have 10 nominees, it's definitely advisable because you want to ensure, you know, your Best Picture winner is truly reflective of the majority of your voters. How does it, how does a change like that transpire? Like, is it at the Board of Governors level and there's a conversation at the Academy where everyone... In the awards rules, in the awards rules every year, that's where a lot of these details of how films qualify, how the voting process works, who's eligible to be nominated, what the voting tabulation process is. Those are all in the awards rules by the, you know,

and approved each year by the Board of Governors. I would say, you know, the rank choice voting piece of it. I think the thing people may not realize is, you know, the rank choice voting is used for nominations. It's been used since the 30s. So it's been a longstanding voting tabulation system that was used on the nomination side. So when they expanded Best Picture, they decided to implement that. And actually, when the Best Picture lineup was 10 films back in the 30s into the 40s, early 40s, they also used that same tabulation system. So it was returning to a tabulation system that was previously used. So is the ranked choice nomination system for

all the categories or just for best picture? No, so. All the categories. Yes. So for most categories, that is where you have, you know, the candidate. So for example, in, let's say, achievement in film editing. I'll just use a random example, right? So the voters in that category rank their top five choices. They're nominating five achievements. They rank their top five out of all the films that are eligible that year. So I think the other thing that's the key component to the nominations voting, and we can obviously get into more of the details of this, is that the nominations are determined by each specific corresponding branch. And so they are the experts in that field. And therefore, they are the voters voting in that category. So when they fill out their ballot, they're ranking

their top five choices. And then through that process, and this is where, you know, I use the best picture winner as the better example of explaining rank choice. I think it's an easier way to digest it. But when you're doing nominations voting, you know, nominations voting is actually what they call proportional rank choice voting. And I don't want to, I can get wonky if you want. Listen, we're in the lead. This is a podcast. Let's go. Okay. So proportional rank choice voting is where you have multiple winners in an election, where you're not just voting for one winner. So in the case of nominations, you're having five winners, right? Got it.

So this is a voting system also used in electoral politics as well, but basically it's where you're electing multiple representatives or multiple nominees, right? So in that case, that's where then they are basically doing the process of tabulation, process of elimination, tabulation, to get to five winners. Okay. Okay. Okay. So that means that there are different groups of voters that had different, you know, different films that they ranked and that one of their choices, they helped, the different choices help determine which films get nominated.

Doesn't mean that the voters in that category all voted for all of those five, right? Right, right. So what you're seeing is you're seeing a reflection of different groups of the population. Okay. Which is why I think sometimes in the why I think sometimes when people react to the nominations, I view it as very clearly like, oh, I see. Okay. So part of that branch really loved this film. Part of the branch loved that film. It's not a monolith singular decision by one group of people that got into a room and made that decision. And they were like, we picked this over this. These are our five and we're picking these over the others. Because the reality is on that nominations ballot, you cannot vote negative.

You're not voting negative on other films, right? Right. So when, so the whole concept, I know the term snubbed is, there's a debate on the use of the term snubbed. I don't use the term snubbed just because I, you know, I think in that case, you know, the voters are not voting down against those films. Only with passion.

Yeah, they're choosing not to vote. They may be choosing not to vote for certain films, fair, but they're not, they don't have a way of voting against it.

Right. Nothing is being rejected in the process of voting. Correct. And it's more that they're putting their, like, passionate support

behind other films, you know. Right. So, and especially their first choice, you know. So, when the nomination's ballot,

the first choice is the most crucial, but they can also then do their second, third, through fifth choices, right? And the first place choice is the passion vote. The idea is, it's like, this is my ultimate favorite. This is the one that, frankly, is my winner, too. You know, they're basically at nomination stage saying, this is the film that, for me, is the winner.

So the reality is, is that any film that gets nominated has to have first place votes. There's no way. What I like about that is, is that that ensures that, you know, all the films that are nominated, all the achievements that are nominated, someone thinks it's the number one best of the year. Right. Right. And so it ensures that from a philosophical standpoint, it's ensuring that these are all what people think are the best.

Now, and granted, then you can imagine there's 300 films eligible in a year. There are probably many films that are voted number one on a lot of different people's ballots. So what often happens is then it's through that process of elimination where they redistribute ballots for films that might be outliers that only, you know. Right. What if in the nominations process, someone was number five on every single person's ballot? Would numerically that work out? No. They don't have first place votes. It just doesn't? No, they won't move forward. I mean, it wouldn't be, it wouldn't be, they wouldn't be in the consideration, in the tabulation process, they would have been eliminated already.

Okay, got it. I think one key thing to say is like, let's say you're redistributing the first, people's first place votes. They might have a film second or third that's not still in the running. So it might go down to their fourth choice that then goes to a film

that helps it get across the finish line. So that's why I do always, when members or folks ask, you should fill out the ballot with all your choices because you could have an impact on, you never know where on the ballot it could have an impact on the eventual results. So you mentioned that the different branches are voting in the nominations process on their branch. So actors are voting on the acting categories. Editors are voting on the editing category. What if you're an executive or in PR or you're a member of the academy and you work in the business, but you don't have a branch that has a category connected to it? Are you just

voting on best picture? Like what level of participation are you having in that way? Yeah. Great question. I would say there are certain categories that are open to the full Academy to opt in and vote. So like international feature, animated feature, the short live action short category, they can opt in for those categories and vote if they chose. So choose now they have to watch a certain number of films. They have to watch, you know, they have to watch a certain amount to be eligible. But there are, so all voting members can opt into certain categories in addition to Best Picture. But no matter what, Best Picture is the category where all 10,000 voting members are nominating that achievement. So those 10 nominees.

And I think this year's nominees, you really see such a wide reflection of different types of films. The full lineup is pretty impressive, I think. But so like an Academy members nominations ballot would just be two categories or maybe four? It varies depending on their eligibility of where they've participated, depending which branch they're in. And can you double up on branches? No. So each member. So there's 10,000 members. They are in one branch. You there's 10,000 members. Right. They are in one branch. You choose.

You are invited and you are in. What a conundrum for Ben Affleck. Yeah. So you're in, you know, each member is in a branch that corresponds with their voting rights in their specific categories. Do you choose once and that's your branch for life? No, I know. Members can request transfer and move. Like, so if someone's career evolves, you know, towards the, you know, like, let's say someone, you know, from either a writer to a director or director, you know, or. Exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You can request a transfer based on your body of work. Now that requires approval by the appropriate branch. Right. But

you're not, you're not. You're not. Yeah. You're not positioned permanently. Okay. How are the parameters around how you qualify to vote in other categories determined? Is that also sort of a Board of Governors thing? Well, each category has their own rules. And I think the other thing, you know, it's a membership-run organization with committees, different committees for each branch, branch executive committees that vote on and consider their rules each given year. Overall Board of Governors approval, yes, but there are 18 branches in the Academy. They all have their own communities,

their own history, their own viewpoint on things. And so, you know, and it's an ongoing conversation. I think that's the thing that I worked with a lot of these different branches and committees over the years, just helping, you know, step-by-step, you know, step by step, you know, year by year, like what kind of improvements need to be made to the process. That was the thing I really was really passionate about is just, you know, helping move it forward, modernizing, but also just thinking more bigger picture. You know,

there's been different voting systems used at different stages, but we've grown to move it towards using, being consistent with right choice voting in the essence where you can't vote negative on films. I think that's one of the big key things that I love about it. And it's really about the passion vote and ensuring people's favorites are the ones moving forward. So I think, you know, obviously when you see different nominations that, you know, in different categories, I think what I was trying to explain to people is like, you know, the writers are going to nominate, you know, that's a different group of voters than the directors versus, you know, the editors. And while there might be a

lot of crossover, there's always some differences. And that's because you have, it's a different voting sample. And it's also key on the voting, who's voting in each year, right? You know, you know, that's, it's also every election, as we know, in our world, it's about turnout and it's about who's voting in a given year. And so, you know, but it is a reflection of what that group of members think is the best. Right. And I kind of feel like, you know, they're experts in their field. You know, they've had to be an Academy member. You have to have a career in, you know, movies, theatrical,

like there's a certain expertise there that, you know, for example, one of the, I'll just give another example, makeup and hairstyling is one that I've worked closely with over the years. Now, they are experts in that field. They will see things that you and I will not see when we see a movie, you know? So like, I think, you know, we've mentioned about, you know, the trying to, you know, predict nominations each year. There's always surprises, right? You. So I think we've mentioned about trying to predict nominations each year. There's always surprises, right? I think that's one where I've seen that there's always surprises. I think sometimes the commentary is always a surprise by some of the makeup and hairstyling nominees,

but I think that's because that branch, they see such details and other things that we wouldn't notice. And they also discover some films that may be under the radar from the awards conversation, right? And I think that's what's interesting is each branch has their own kind of unique thing that they're looking for. So let's shift from the nominations process to the final voting.

Okay. Everyone is voting on every award. And how does Ranked Choice relate to that? Is it only happening in Best Picture? Only happening in Best Picture. everyone is voting on every award in, and is ranked choice. How does ranked choice relate to that? Is it only happening in best picture? Only happening in best picture. So, so best picture,

because there's the 10 nominations is why ranked choice ballot is used there in all the other categories. It's you vote for one and it's the entire voting membership voting for the winners. So I always say the nominations are determined by the branch that are the experts in their field. And then the overall Academy, basically, you know, it's the overall are determined by the branch, the experts in their field, and then the overall Academy. Basically, it's the overall film industry recognition that those members are all voting on the eventual Oscar winners.

So is the reason that Ranked Choice is happening in Best Picture is because there are 10 nominees and only 5 nominees in the other categories? Yeah, exactly. That's because there's such a larger number of nominees to choose from in the voting, similar to where you have short lists of 10 or 15 achievements in some of the other categories. In some of the categories, it goes from 300 eligible films down to the nominees. That's when it's such a larger group of candidates or films being considered. That's when the rank choice ballot is used to help with that process. When it's only five nominees, it's just they simply vote for their winner, their chosen winner in each category. Are there other misconceptions about how the voting works that you've heard over the years

or things that you've had to make people understand, whether inside or outside of the academy? Yeah, I mean, I think we've already said that, but I just want to reemphasize, you know, I think the key factor is that many people don't realize there are different voting bodies for each category. You know, it's not one monolith academy. It's not a jury award where they sit in a room and all make a collective decision. I think, you know, the voting members all submit their votes, but they don't know themselves who the nominees are either. You know, they find out when everybody finds out. So I think it's just as, you know, and it's not like I haven't heard from members that disagree with the eventual voting that they voted in, right? So, you know, now granted, probably one of the films they supported did make it into the nominations, but some other films got nominated that they may not like.

And so I think, you know, it's interesting where like, you know, reaction is directed towards the Academy as an organization, but it's really like it isn't like the members of the Academy all uniformly agree with everything and the results. It's different people with very different opinions. You know, it's all, you know, subjective and that's what art is. So I think it's just a very interesting kind of, you know, messy democracy at the end of the day. Right. So one thing that we talk about on the show is how we think we know everything and we make predictions and then we're just wildly off on certain things historically i'm just consistently flummoxed by the doc branch for example i just i don't know where they're gonna go not in a positive or negative way i just very rarely have a handle and in many cases i actually haven't even seen or had the chance to see films that find their way into the nominations which is significantly

different say from best picture where right you know usually nine out of ten of see films that find their way into the nominations, which is significantly different, say, from Best Picture, where usually nine out of 10 of the films that are nominated, if not all 10, are widely available. And that's a larger voting body, right? That's 10,000 members. So you have, and it's a larger industry level of kind of building consensus that might be forming over the year. I think when you're dealing with branches that are smaller, right? So like, you know, most branches are under a thousand members.

You know, the Actors Branch is the largest. I don't remember the exact number, but they're the largest. They're over a thousand. But, you know, number of the branches are less than a thousand people, but they're the experts in that field.

But they have, I think they all have their different, every individual has a different method for how they vote and how they make their decisions. And, you know, so there's the psychology of the voting process too that I think is really interesting because their decisions. And, you know, so there's the psychology of the voting process too that I think is really

interesting because you decide, okay, you know, where you want to, like, let's say you're a voter and you have five slots. You're like, okay, where do I want to put my first place vote behind? And you see that sometimes in some of the categories with who gets nominated where you're like, you see where the first place votes went. You could see that like someone wanted, you know, a particular filmmaker, I won't, you know, a particular filmmaker to make sure that they got nominated. And you can see where that first place vote support might have come from, from a group of, you know, a pool of the membership that voted. So there have their different reasons for what they're looking for

and why they vote for something one versus two, three, four, or five. There's, of course, over the years, you see where there's, you know, perceived front runners that may not get nominated. I think a lot of times maybe it's because people assume someone is safe and they don't need to put their first place vote there. So they might rank that person third or fourth or fifth later in their ballot because they want to make sure this other achievement or filmmaker or film is nominated. But again, it's each individual voter making that decision. So it's, you know, I think that's where it's interesting to me, just when I see the results, I'm usually like more, it's more, it's so interesting to me because I see like, oh,

okay, okay. That's where the different pools of support came from. Yeah. You can kind of map it all out. Is it your impression that, I mean, Sean and I are diseased, like we do this podcast and we sit here and we strategize and we're like, okay, so is it going to vote split out this way? And then something, and I, you know, I think we put together our imaginary ballots or how we would vote, thinking about how the voting works or to the best that we can understand it and being like, really, we think about it and being like, really, we think about it strategically. Is it your impression that the average voter is sitting there thinking like,

okay, well, I think this person is like a lock. So I'll, or do you think, are people just voting? I think it varies. I think it varies.

I think there's probably some, yes, but there's others that truly are like, you know, they, they are moved by something and they, and they want to vote for that. And they don't. Yeah. And some people are working and they're to vote for that and they don't.

Yeah. And some people are working and they're not paying attention to what the commentary is or what the nominations are and they're just watching films and voting for what they respond to when they, you know, if they're busy working, they don't really have time to pay attention. They're just trying to see enough films to then vote, right? To help inform their vote, right? So I think it's 10,000 people. It's a wide swath of different kinds of people,

and they have different approaches for their vote. You know, the organization, you know, the membership itself, its size has doubled in the time that I was there. And, you know, as part of our membership diversity initiatives, especially in the way, you know, after Oscar's so white, our A2020 diversity initiative, and working to really reach those goals was really a cool, especially after Oscar So White, our A2020 diversity initiative. And working to really reach those goals was really a cool, amazing thing to be a part of.

I think the one thing I'll just add on that is I think people may not realize what it really was is it was a way of being able to be proactive and working with all of our different branch committees, identifying people worldwide that were amazing and should have been members but never applied or never knew someone who was a member in order to be – you had to be sponsored by current members in order to be considered. And so it was a switch in the process to be proactive and recognize great, amazing artists that should be in. And so I think, you know, that's obviously what has evolved over that time, you know, since, you know, what was it, 2015. Since that time, you know, the membership has grown to over 10,000 members, a lot more global representation. You know, I think sometimes, you know, that the global piece of it, I think, you know, artists respond to art in a variety of ways. And I don't think you could just assume

that the international members are only voting for international films and the American films are only voting for American films. I think it's clearly there's a lot of crossover.

Just statistically, it wouldn't be possible for all these films to get international films to be nominated if it wasn't for having a wider appeal. Right.

So I think that's just an interesting kind of evolution as how the organization's changed yeah I have so many thoughts about that I don't know how you don't necessarily have to respond that's okay I find it really interesting as like a as a sports fan too you think about halls of fame for particular sports and we think of this as a way to like commemorate the history of the thing and I think for many people the Oscars works in a very similar way but as you evolve the way that the voting works and it's so interesting that you cited the, that used to be 10 nominees in the thirties and the early forties, and then went back to 10

nominees. So that is like, there's a shift in the history, the, the increased addition of international members. There's a shift in the history. We've noted with interest, how fascinating the directing branch is and how it has like really looked a lot different in the last 10 years than it did previously. Right. But you know,, it's evolved. And, you know, the Oscar history shows all these different patterns. So, like, in the 70s, there were a lot of international directors nominated in the directing category, saying that was a common pattern for the director's branch in the 70s as well. So it's interesting how you just see some of the history of the awards.

I think it's—what I've always found interesting is I'm also a history nerd in addition to a movie nerd. And I think, you know, seeing how the Oscar nominee, this was even before I worked at the Academy, I always was fascinated how the Oscar nominations or winners reflected the times that were happening socially. You know, if you look in the late 60s, you have, you know, End of the Heat of the Night winning for 1967. Then 68, such a tumultuous year, went to Oliver, right? Pure escapism, right? The next year, the next, oh yeah, don't forget that. And then the next year, Midnight Cowboy, right? So like such interesting, it just, I've always found those types of, you know, Oscar history so fascinating. And, you know, it's a given vote at a given time in

history. You know, some films, you know, are more appreciated later, decades later, not in the year they come out. So there's always kind of an interesting evolution on that. And I think

that's what's always intriguing about the Oscars is that, you know, you never know which way it will go and I think,

you know, sometimes when it goes predictably, then people go, well, it was predictable. You know? You want something exciting and interesting too, you know? Yeah when it goes predictably, then people go, well, it was predictable. You know, you want something exciting and interesting, too, you know. Yeah.

Well, maybe not this year. Yeah. Yeah. I think you hit on the key word that really resonates with me about this, which is psychology. That the voter has a, not all voters, but most voters have a psychology. Voters in anything, really. They're thinking, they're results oriented. They're strategic, like Amanda's saying in some cases.

Maybe they're just, you know, their psychology is emotional and it's just they're responding emotionally to something. And I'm like curious how that intersects with electoral politics. I know you've thought about that a little bit too and like where these things echo each other. And we don't have ranked choice voting, say, for the president of the United States. You know, I don't know if we should or should not, but I'm like, I'm open to new opportunities and thinking about electoral politics. It's definitely become very apparent to me. I mean, obviously, I, you know, I love the Oscars, started working there.

And then over the years, became a big fan of ranked choice voting through my work. And I wasn't, you know, that was a fun surprise of the journey. Did you have any experience in that? Like any poli-sci, whatever, or you just started to learn about? I'm also an electoral politics nerd as well, but more just as an interest, but not background. But I would say that over the years, I saw the benefit of ranked choice voting compared to other voting systems that had been used. So I won't go down the talking too detail on some of those categories, but I've seen comparatives of different voting systems, and I've seen the benefit of having the right choice voting ballot and being able to have

differing opinions of work and different types of films getting nominated. So my favorite, one example I want to give is for Documentary Feature of the Year, Summer of Soul. I have the nominees that year. You had Summer of Soul, Ascension, Attica, Flea, and Writing with Fire. Extremely different types of filmmaking there, all types of documentary styles. And I think you saw a real reflection of different voting members' support. And it all kind of like, I thought it was just such a really beautiful lineup of five nominees because it just, it showed where the voting allows voters to, you know, different voters, you know, passion

reflected in the nominations. An animated film, an archival, a verite, like all different approaches. Exactly, all different approaches. And so that, so just over the years, I've just grown to really appreciate it. And so then I can't help but see in electoral politics where, oh, this would be really beneficial. There's been a lot of more in the last number of years. There's been a lot more movement on, you know, amongst democracy organizations and advocates that ranked choice voting could be a really great solution to consider. Both the state of Maine and now the state of Alaska implemented it for their statewide elections, including federal elections. So that's just happened, you know, in the last number of years, more states and

municipalities are considering it. I think there's a couple of really cool things. So for example, California, we have a primary happening in the Senate where you have multiple candidates from political parties running and you can only vote for one, right? But you might like more than one of the candidates. And, you know, then I think a lot of people are starting to think strategically how they should vote versus what they actually, who they actually might truly align with the most as a candidate, right? So instead of, you know, right now it's, you know, the top two go to the general top two voting system for California. But imagine if that general election was four or five candidates went to the general. And then the entire state of California could rank their candidates in order.

And so you could vote your conscience of who you love the most or who you want to support the most. But then you could vote second or third, and that could help impact to ensure that you had a candidate get 50%. So if you look at some elections in certain states, you'll see that someone will win in office with 40% because there were third-party candidates and others that divided the vote. You don't have candidates get elected with over 50%. If you notice how Georgia always has those runoffs every year, it's because they require 50%, but you have to do a runoff election. If they use ranked choice ballot, they wouldn't have to do a second election. They could just redistribute the ballots and come up with the winner. I mean, listen, I abandoned trying to

help them a while ago. Okay. Okay. Well, it's just, you know, it's just, it's become, there's these examples that have shown that like for the voter, it would allow the voter to not have to think over to think strategically and not worry that they're wasting their vote. They could vote their conscience, but still also contribute to the overall winner could be. And then on the other side of it,

I think it shows that it would also change, I think, the psychology of the candidates. So for example, if you're a candidate running, it is not in your best interest to attack your opponents because you need your opponent's supporters to put you number two. So it changes that as well. So I just think there's a lot of movement there that I think is interesting that, you

know, I think it's an exciting time to start talking about that. Set aside your work with the Academy. Yeah. Why would an organization or a government or the structures of power not want ranked choice voting? What is the case against ranked choice voting? I think chances are there's if you have if systems are used to one candidate per party, this would it would probably change that conception where you could have multiple people from a party running or third party candidates, what have you. I think that contributes to it. I think also just it's, I think it's just not fully understood.

That's what we're doing here. Yeah, we're doing it right to help explain it. I think terminologies or certain aspects of it, people get confused by. I think I've just in the work I've done, you know, I really just try to explain that like from the voting perspective, you're voting truly how you truly believe. You do not have to be strategic. You can truly vote your passion and vote, you know, your other choices and not overthink it, right?

Or if like, if something's perceived as a front runner, you should still, and it's your favorite, you should still vote at number one. Don't make assumptions either. So that's a couple of the key things I've learned. And I think also, but I think when people start to get into the weeds

of the tabulation process is where then they get confused and then it gets labeled as a confusing system. I think it's very straightforward in that it ensures the majority support candidates are the ones moving forward. But then voting is subjective and everyone has their different reasons for how they vote.

Right. I have one. It's more frivolous than world politics, which is, does your superior understanding of ranked voting and the Academy of Voting help you in your own Oscar predictions? Oh. Do you feel like you have an edge? I don't know about that because I think at the end of the day, everyone has their private vote. You just never know where the vote's gonna go I mean I think you can still observe Oscar history to inform your predictions and I think a lot of it's just kind of being more aware of what's in the zeitgeist or

what's getting visibility I don't necessarily know that the voting system is the sole like potentially but I would say there's so many other factors because it is a private vote and everyone can decide how they're going to vote. And they might, you know, I think, you know, when you go to, when they go and submit their votes, they can adjust it and change it before they submit, right? So people could literally change their mind. Like in an instant. Right.

So I think trying to predict that is always going to be elusive to some degree. Even though you're no longer working for the Academy, will you still do predictions every year for yourself? Well, now I can. I used to not. I used to always, I was. Well, even just your own private predictions. But I think while working there, I was very cognizant of being, you know, I was Switzerland. I was felt very diplomatic that I was there to help with support and all the nominees.

And I loved doing that. So it was so I think this is my year of being like, oh, can I actually predict things? I'm still you're not. I'm still not used to that. I'm still not used to that. So it's still a new feeling, I guess, to me. But I, you know, I obviously have care a lot about the work that we all did there over the years. And I, you know, I think the Ranked Choice Voting conversation is something I really care about and want to try to help explain more.

And I just see where we could benefit everywhere with using it. Tom, thanks so much. Thank you so much. We learned a lot. Yes, we learned a lot. Thank you so much for coming on the show. Thank you so much for coming on the show. Thank you. Thanks to Tom Hoyer.

Thanks to Amanda. Thanks to Jack Sanders for his production work and our producer, Bobby Wagner. Later this week, it's time. Dune Part 2, Desert Power. We'll see you then.