The Big Picture - Introducing 'The Oscars Show' and the 2018 Oscar Narratives I The Oscars Show (Ep. 91)

Episode Date: October 30, 2018

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins kick off The Big Picture’s new Oscars Show with a look at the biggest movies of 2018 and how they would have been viewed through the lens of the now-delayed “Popular Movie” category (1:13). They then discuss whether Claire Foy’s stock is up or down after her performance in ‘First Man’ and the buzz surrounding ‘The Girl in the Spider’s Web’ (17:00) before diving deep into the Best Actor race (30:23). We Actually Fixed the Oscars, The Big Picture We’re About to See the Most Competitive Best Actor Oscars Race in Years, Sean Fennessey Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Queen That ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ Gets Completely Wrong, Steven Hyden Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, guys? It's Liz Kelley. The One Shining podcast tour with Titus and Tate officially kicks off next week on Friday, November 2nd. Chicago sold out, but there's still a handful of tickets left in Columbus, Ohio, Louisville, Kentucky, and Bloomington, Indiana. You can find links to buy tickets at theringer.com slash one dash shining dash podcast. I'm Sean Fennessy, editor-in-chief of The Ringer, and this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about the Oscars. And I am joined by The Ringer's culture editor, Amanda Dobbins. Amanda, hello. Sean, hello. Amanda, we're doing a show about the Oscars, and on this week's show, the inaugural show, we're going to break down the most exciting best actor race in a decade,

determine whether First Man did enough to exit our atmosphere, and explain why the hell we're doing this show in the first place. So Amanda, why are we doing this show? Well, number one, because we love the Oscars. We do, we do. And we talk about it a lot and we figured we might as well record it and make other people listen to it. But also, this is a great Oscar season, which is, by the way, it's October and it's Oscar season, which is an intense thing to say. And we'll be here for another four months. Buckle up. Yeah. It's a really exciting year.

To open every episode, just to set the table, we will do something called the Big Picture's Big Picture. And fittingly enough, to explain why we're doing this show, we can talk about the big picture of this race. And you're right. It is an amazing year for the Oscars, in part because I think the season got started essentially with the quote-unquote popular Oscar that was introduced by the Academy earlier this summer, which was, I would say,

a bungled announcement. Would you agree? That's a generous assessment. Yes. Yes. So, you know, in an attempt to draw in a bigger crowd after observing, I think, the falling ratings and arguably the waning relevance of the Academy Awards, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences opted to introduce an amorphous, vague idea about giving movies that people, quote unquote, actually liked, attention at the Oscars. However, we find ourselves in a year that features Black Panther and A Star is Born as the two films that have been released that have the highest odds to be nominated for Best Picture. This is a classic Oscar story and also a comic book movie. So we never needed a popular Oscar, as it turns out. Yes.

And that was kind of, there were many forms of outrage to the Best Popular Oscar, including the fact that it was a really half-baked idea. They announced it without any details. We don't know what will qualify for a most popular Oscar. We don't know kind of how many people will be in it. There was no—it seemed like a test balloon. Yes, definitely. There were no parameters announced. There was no sense of who actually made this decision.

I guess presumably the Board of Governors. But even then, there was a complete lack of clarity. It was announced on Twitter as all terrible things are. And it set the course for this conversation, I think, that created a lot of anxiety around something like Black Panther, which people have identified as a thoughtful step forward in the genre of comic book movies. But then there was a feeling like maybe it would be held back by this, you know, this award that was sort of an also-ran award. Exactly. An award that didn't actually note merit, but noted a sort of popularity with merit.

That's been canceled or at least put on hold. So the Academy announced earlier this summer that the award would be coming back in 2020. Right. Which, do you think that was a good idea? Well, again, I don't really trust any of the announcements at this point because the way that they announced the original best popular Oscar was so half-baked and was taken away so quickly that it seems like they may adjust it in a different way. We'll see. Like, you know, 2020 is, or I guess the ceremony would be in, yes, 2020 is a long time away. Well, who knows if we'll even be alive in 2020, first of all.

Second of all, do you think at The Ringer we should post pitches for ideas and see if people are into them before actually writing them or recording them? Well, unfortunately, that's what Twitter is sometimes for. But as you said, Twitter is the worst idea machine. So, yeah. But imagine if I went back to my desk and I said, in February of 2019, I will be writing a piece about how Black Panther and the Boston Red Sox explain cultural hegemony in this century.

Write it now. Maybe I should write it now. That would have been a good piece. So anyway, we talked about Black Panther. And also this is the year, as I said, of A Star is Born, which is one of the most classical, down middle Hollywood stories imaginable. This is the fourth iteration of this story that has been told. And Bradley Cooper, a movie star making his directorial debut, Lady Gaga, a pop star making her, you know, her sort of big screen acting debut.

And I'm having a hard time seeing a movie that is going to unseat this movie from the popular aspect of this conversation. Forgive the pun. Absolutely. I think I am honestly have been surprised by how popular it has been in the mainstream. Because when the best popular Oscar was first announced, we were all very concerned about Black Panther. Because Black Panther was deserving and we don't want it to be put shunted into a different category. But I don't really think any of us expected Star is Born to be the actual commercial juggernaut that it has become. It has made a lot of money. A lot of people have seen it and it's also quite good, which maybe we also were surprised by.

Yeah. I mean, you and I have talked before about how in the anticipation of the release of the movie, it was known, at least in our offices, as either the worst movie of all time or the greatest movie of all time. I think it's fair to say with some distance, we know that it's neither of those things. Although I still think the first hour of the movie is among the most exciting dramas made in the last five or six years. I really was captivated by it and bought in. It's electric. I completely agree. But I just I wouldn't have thought that it was going to be in the best, the popular Oscar conversation. Not that we have it yet, but just because it is that classic Oscar bait. Hollywood loves a movie about itself. It's a remake of other movies that were, that are considered the Hollywood golden age. It's Bradley Cooper going from actor to director.

It's all of these narratives that are great for Oscars. And I think we always thought if it was good, it would be in that conversation. But then it also went and made a ton of money and people really seem to like it outside of the context of this studio, even though we also like it. We do. So it does seem like the one to beat. It's interesting. I mean, one way to know that a movie is really well-liked is if the percentage in which it decreases at the box office every week is fairly low.

If it's less than 40% every week, especially in the third, fourth, fifth week of release, then you know that there are people who are going back a second time, a third time. Friends are telling friends, go see this movie. This is an interesting thing. I think the movie only lost 28% this weekend at the box office, which is very impressive for a movie that's now been out for three and a half weeks.

And there's just something going on. It actually lost its opening weekend significantly, quote unquote, lost to Venom, which feels like it was five years ago. Right. And now I can see that over time, essentially, A Star Is Born is going to lap Venom in box office and obviously in cultural weight.

And it says a lot about the way that an old school movie can do it. This feels like Forrest Gump, where it's like it's going to be in theaters for three months. Absolutely. The one thing that I did want to say about the popular Oscar before we shift back to the best picture narrative is the one downside of losing it in my mind is there is a kind of movie that I think that it was going to try to celebrate that I thought would have been

a good idea at the Oscars. And that is the Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, The Incredibles 2, kind of crowd-pleasing, maybe Mission Impossible Fallout even, if I'm being hopeful. Sure, yeah. A kind of movie that we like, that a lot of people see, that is not necessarily prestigious or considered high art, but is good, Yes. For lack of a better term. And I don't think any of those movies are going to get any love at the Oscars now. No. It may be a supporting actor category nod here or there, but I would agree with you.

And I would like to see those movies at the Oscars as well. And we'll talk specifically about Mission Impossible Fallout later. We certainly will. But I was very against the best popular Oscar. There's a whole podcast that you can listen to me yelling about this. And I am still against it, if only because I think that those movies

should just be in the best picture conversation. There are a lot of different ways to make a really good movie. And this is actually a year where we have a lot of different types of good movies. We have the old Hollywood, like, melodrama that is A Star is Born. We're going to talk about Roma,

which is just a heartbreakingly beautiful memoir, small film. You've got Widows, which we'll spend forever talking about, which is just a fun genre movie, you know, perfectly executed. In November, this becomes a Widows podcast. Yes, it does.

And you've got First Man, which is kind of the biography picture that's like the technical masterpiece. You've got them all. And then you get to have a conversation. And then you have Black Panther, of course, which is a huge blockbuster and a comic book movie that's

also really good. And so when you put all of those on the same playing field, then you get to talk about like what is good and what should we, that makes the Oscar conversation more fun. And so I don't want movies that we like that don't fit a very specific definition of like Oscar drama to be shunted off to a different category. You're completely right. And I think in a different year, I think a lot about last year's Oscar crop, which, you know, included Three Billboards and The Shape of Water, which went on to win and Get Out and Lady Bird and Darkest Hour and My Beloved Phantom Threat

and all of these movies, which I thought was an interesting Oscar year, but not a particularly good Oscar year. And so that led to a lot of left turn kind of movies appearing. This year, I would not say it has precedent per se, especially because a movie like Black Panther has never been in the conversation. But you're right, it feels full. It feels, I mean, you didn't even mention Green Book, which is the crowd pleaser. You didn't mention The Favorite, which is the sort of auteurist, high comedy. It's the traditional Oscar movie, but it's still good. Yes. So it is a fascinating year. And you mentioned Roma, which I think is a movie that's going to come up again and again over the next couple of

months. But I do think we should put it on the table now, because if we're going to talk about A Star Is Born, we're going to talk about Black Panther. Roma is the third of the three powerhouses here. Yes, it is. On goldderby.com, it is currently running, I think, tied with A Star Is Born at nine to two for best picture, which is fascinating because the movie is not out for six weeks. And when it comes out, it will be in a couple of theaters, but mostly people will see it on Netflix. Yes. And I'm curious how you personally feel about a movie like this, which you and I have both seen.

We won't spoil it, but we'll talk about kind of what it means to put a movie like this on your TV. Oh boy. This is a fraught conversation that we will be having for several months. Maybe several decades. Yeah, this is true because this is really, this is theaters versus Netflix. This is the old studio versus the disruptors. This is another great narrative struggle, which makes for a great Oscar season. Roma itself, I think you and I, if I can speak for you, were overwhelmed by it. It's just a really, really powerful experience, which is not a phrase that I use very often. Yes, this is Alfonso Cuaron's, as you said, memoristic view of Mexico in 1970.

Yes, and just kind of built almost entirely from his life and his memories of his childhood. We both saw it in theaters. And I think that that made a huge difference into how we experienced it, both the technical film quality aspects and just the visual experience of the movie, but also, and I say this as a millennial with ADD, just kind of sitting there and watching the movie without a phone, without someone interrupting you because they have to do something in the kitchen, whatever. It's harder to watch.

I think it's harder to really watch any movie at home and get a full cinematic experience, if you will, which is a cheesy thing to say and I think sometimes overvalued. But in the case of a film like Roma, actually really is part of its value. So I don't know it's tough the flip side a lot of people will be able to see Roma who would never have been able to see it because it's not like it would have gotten a huge widescreen release in the states and around the world so it will be more available and I think probably from a numbers perspective more people will end up watching it I think you're definitely And I think probably from a numbers perspective, more people will end up watching it. I think you're definitely right. I think it's highly unlikely in this climate that Roma would have been financed in quite the way that it was by Netflix by a traditional studio.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Fox Searchlight or A24 or another boutique studio that identifies that Cuaron is literally among the five best living filmmakers and consistently makes movies that even if you don't like them, you have to go like, wow, you really did something. And so it's possible that we wouldn't have gotten it. And so there is a kind of beneficence and benevolence that Netflix is going to, I think, bring into unto itself because of this. And obviously I think that there is a genuine strategic and competitive feeling inside that company that to certify itself as the leading entertainment company of the 21st century, it must have a Best Picture Oscar. And this is the bid. This is the

first time. There has been Beasts of No Nation. There has been several documentary films that they've made that have been successful. But this is the time where they are going to dig their heels in and they're going to campaign very hard in an effort to make this movie a thing. I'm very interested to see how it works. I think you're right that a lot of people will start this movie. I'm curious to see if a lot of people will finish it. The thing about seeing it in the theater was, for me, it just threw a blanket on me. You know, it was just like, you just got to be into this now. You have to look at it. And I had an interesting experience. This is a slight detour, but it's relative to what we're discussing. I was watching this movie called The Price of

Everything. It's a documentary that's coming out on HBO in middle of November last night. I was very tired. I had a long weekend. It was a great weekend, but a long weekend. I was watching it last night and I was prone. I couldn't move. And I was just watching the movie and I was fascinated by it. I was completely enthralled, but I was getting tired and it was prone. I couldn't move and I was just watching the movie and I was fascinated by it. I was completely enthralled. But I was getting tired and it was one o'clock in the morning so I went to bed about 45 minutes in which is something I don't like to do

but I did it. Right. I woke up the next morning and I was like, I have to finish this movie. So I'm up. I turn the movie on but I've also got my computer in my lap

and I'm trying to do work and the movie's just passing me by. Yeah. And that is how I watch too much in my life right now. I think we all do. And I care and I'm doing a podcast about this and so do you.

Of course. So imagine just being a person who wants to check out a movie. I agree with you and it's my concern. I mean, you know, there are so many movies that I'm not going to name because it's irresponsible that I've just never quite finished because I was watching them at home and I had the same experience. Oh, I got to go do this or oh, I think I understand where this is going or something else happened on my phone and I'm addicted to my phone. So I agree with you. I do think, and again, we'll talk more about Roma. I don't want to spoil too much of it. There is a really immersive quality to the movie that is part of its power. And even as I was sitting in this theater watching it, I thought to myself, you know, I could see at home just kind of getting invested and maybe trying to find out what happens.

So I'm curious. The hard thing is we'll never know how many people finish it. We'll literally never know. It's a real shame. The one other factor I think relative to Roma is this is a foreign language film. This film is in Spanish. And it's also in different Mexican dialects that the women who star in the film are using.

And that requires a level of concentration, but there's also, I think, an unspoken ignorance in the American movie-going public that is reluctant to view foreign language films. And also, a foreign language film has never won Best Picture, which is notable, I think, in this case. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's notable. That's true.

I'm going to take the reverse position, which is that the subtitles are actually a pro for this movie because you can't be looking at something else. You actually have to look at the screen. Yes, that's good. And then you actually, it just is kind of drawing your attention in a way that you can't be looking at your phone, which is for me, I think that's the number one threat to this is the phones of the world. Have you already cast your check from Netflix for that savvy bit of marketing? We'll see. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe you're wrong. This has been The Big Picture's Big Picture. We're going to move on to our next segment where we'll talk stock up, stock down right after this. We're back on the big picture. We're talking the Oscars. It's me. It's Amanda

Dobbins. Amanda, we're going to do a segment that we're calling Stock Up, Stock Down, which I must admit is not the most creative title for a segment, but I think it's going to explain what we're trying to do quite clearly. It's focused. It's descriptive. And also we reserve the right to change it. It's also beautifully punny given that we're going to be talking about an astronaut. Wow, dad jokes. Okay. I'm in my safe space now. We're almost three weeks out from the release of Damien Chazelle's First Man, which I think six months ago,

I felt pretty strongly would have been in that conversation we just had in the previous segment about a star is born, Black Panther. That's true. We didn't talk about it, which was not on purpose, but it is possibly definitely a sign. Yeah, I mean, you noted it, but you kind of just said, well, this is like the traditional biopic.

Oh, that's right. I already forgot that I talked about it on here. I'm sorry. I liked First Man. First Man is a incredibly well-made movie with a very specific approach that i think a lot of people didn't necessarily caught into which was this intensely subjective point of view of neil armstrong's experience and he is a quiet tense man man. And he's portrayed by Ryan Gosling. And the movie's done fine. I think relative to La La Land, Damien Chazelle's triumph from 2016,

it's a little bit, it's made $75 million worldwide against a budget of $59 million. It's got 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. It is currently 9 to 1 as a Best Picture contender. I think you and I agree that both Gosling and Claire Foy are very good in this film. They could be nominated. We'll talk a little bit more about Gosling in the next segment. Something, though, just feels off. What do you think it is? The first thing I would say is that it's a case of bad timing. It's really, really tough timing, even though on paper they did everything right. Because it did the big film festivals and then comes out in October.

It was in, you know, a week after A Star is Born, which we'll come back to. But that's how you do an Oscar movie now. Go to one of the film festivals, then you're out in October or November. People talk about you for several months, and then you coast to victory. But I said this even before, I said this to you, the week after Star is Born. It just feels like the wrong time for such a quiet technical movie because you're coming out of one week after the emotional wallop of Star is Born. I thought you were going to say Venom. Venom to you feels like five years ago, and for me, Venom never happened. But anyway,

it's like I don't remember that. But as you noted, A Star is Born kind of grew over time. People were talking about it, huge word of mouth, and people are going to see it. But there is just also something to the quality of A Star is Born, which is big and extra and melodramatic and just going for it. And even if that is not your cup of tea, it definitely has a big movie-going effect. And then to come in one week later with First Man, which is quiet and observed and technical

and a feat of filmmaking, which is another way of saying that people were noticing the details because they weren't swept up in the experience. I just think that's really tough positioning. Yeah. And, you know, we just talked about Roma, which is also a feat of technical filmmaking, but it never makes a point of that. It doesn't even seem necessarily very interested in that, even though I think that's a movie that is going to be taught in film schools. Yeah. And it is also a subjective story that shows you one person's point of view as they travel through a confusing and difficult world.

And you're right. They're just, the timing just felt not, I wonder if that movie came out November 2nd, if it would be a bigger deal. And is that possible that the Oscar narrative can be, you know, flummoxed by A Star is Born and Venom? I honestly think and Venom because on October 5th, I thought this is great for all the movies coming out this month because people are in the movie theater right now. I think

the box office is $250 million bigger this month than it was in 2017, which is a huge number. But for whatever reason, I think you're right. There was something aesthetic that was off or something emotional. And, you know, I think we should say, I'm not sure how much I want to subscribe to this, that the literal false flag controversy around the movie may or may not have affected it. And there's really no way to tell, but there are some people who are very vocal on social media who have said, because of the disinformation that the movie does not depict the American flag in this movie, even though it appears again and again and again, before it was seen by most people during the festival season, that people, especially conservative thinkers, declined to go see the movie.

Yes, which is, I mean, that controversy was ridiculous. But when you spin it around the idea that there are a lot of people who would have gone to see a story of American triumph and then were not sold the story of an American triumph and so they didn't go, I suppose that that's true. I think there is a case, too, that there are a lot of people who just don't feel terribly triumphant about America. And so maybe there's something also emotional that has not clicked with people in that respect? I think so. I do also think that there's a choice in the movie, which is the movie's about how going to the moon was really hard. It's about this was a struggle and it was very technically and scientifically difficult and dangerous. And it was really hard. And it commits to that throughout the movie. But it's tough because going to the moon was also sort of one of the most romantic and cinematic things that America ever did. It's like we saw something in the sky and we'd like to go walk on it. And so to take the movie quality out of that is an

interesting choice. It's not what we go to the movies for necessarily. And it's a gamble and it's interesting, but I wonder if people just aren't totally responding to that in the way that they are used to responding to movies. Candidly, it took me a second viewing to really understand what was so, I thought, ultimately magnificent about it. But I remember when I first saw it a few months ago, I slacked you immediately. I was like, this ain't no Apollo 13. Well, it's not an Apollo 13. No, it's not. It's one of America's great films.

Right. Well, Apollo 13 is fine. I certainly remember enjoying it as a teenager. There is one side effect, and I want to talk about a segment we're going to do every week that we're going to call the buzzword. I don't know if this is what we're going to stick with,

but it's important when you talk about the Oscars to identify that there's all this kind of subterfuge and lingo and all of this kind of creative strategizing around campaigns. And the buzzword hopefully will help us understand a little bit of what's happening in the race. I mentioned Claire Foy. The buzzword this week is campaign poison. This is so rude already. And I think it's a fun one to talk about right off the bat because you are the number one stan in the Claire Foy army.

I am. I founded the Claire Foy Hive. I did. You are the queen bee of the Foy Hive. Jen, you have to trust us. We've got this under control. No, you don't. All these protocols and procedures to make it seem like you have it under control. But you're a bunch of boys making models out of balsa wood. You don't have anything under control. And Claire Foy is, I think, you know, there's been some debate about her performance in this movie.

I liked it as Jane Armstrong, Janet Armstrong, excuse me. She is not a quote unquote likable character, nor is the queen, I think in some respects, nor is many of the characters that she's played. Certainly not the character she played in the movie Unsane. Right.

She has a knack for women who are tough and dug in and have a point of view of the characters that she's played, certainly not the character she played in the movie Unsane. Right. She has a knack for women who are tough and dug in and have a point of view of the world. And she's also playing another one of those women in November in a movie called The Girl on the Spider's Web. Yeah. That woman is Lisbeth Salander. You may remember her from The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. She was portrayed by Rooney Mara.

Unfortunately, this movie is not very good. And I could have seen a world, much like the world I was thinking of last April, where First Man was a frontrunner for this campaign, that The Girl on the Spider's Web would have been a big hit and it would have propelled Claire Foy's fame upward. Yes. And she would have ultimately been assured an Oscar nomination and maybe even a win as Best Supporting Actress, maybe even Best Actress. Right. And it's clear that that was plotted out a little bit. And in their minds as well, even corresponding to the Emmy season, which she finally won an Emmy for the crown in September, and then you go straight to first man and then Spider's Web was supposed to catapult her to the top, which, you know, because she's on the cover of every magazine, including Vogue,

it was really her press push. This was, as we've been saying, foy season. Yes. Yes. And so this brings us back to the poison. Yeah. And many people have not seen The Girl on the Spider's Web. The reviews are not out. I can just say, and I think we can agree,

that there is not a lot of excitement around this movie. No, there's not. Why do you think that is? Well, there's not a lot of excitement. And I would also kind of say there's not a lot of, there's not a huge push. The marketing has been pretty quiet. I was having a conversation with a friend who is, you know, not a part of the movie media industry. And she was just asking, why is no one talking about Spider's Web?

I want to see this movie. I liked Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. I will go see it. And it's been really quiet, which is usually a sign that something is am want to see this movie. I liked Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. I will go see it. And it's been really quiet, which is usually a sign that something is amiss in the actual movie. Yeah, I don't want to

spoil it for people. I'll just say I wasn't super impressed. Right. And there have been some changes, obviously. You mentioned Dragon Tattoo. That was David Fincher's film

five years ago. Fincher's not involved in this film except as a producer, I think only nominally. And the movie's directed by Fede Alvarez, who is a really, really talented horror filmmaker who made the Evil Dead remake five years ago. He also made Don't Breathe a couple of years ago, which was a huge surprise hit.

And he's good at gross things. He's good at making you uncomfortable. I suspect you've not seen his work, Amanda. No, I have not because I don't like gross things. And I would also venture to say that most people who are huge Claire Foy fans are not really here for the grossness, which is an interesting choice. It is. The Girl in the Spider's Orb is ultimately not terribly gross. And that actually might be why Fede Alvarez was not necessarily the right person for this film. I also just think the story is confusing. And though I have never read a Stieg Larsson sentence in my life. They're not very good. I've been told they're not very good. And that might explain some of the problems here. You know, very famously, the girl with the dragon tattoo was assembled by this really high level

group of people, you know, a brilliant screenwriter, Fincher, you know, it's produced by Scott Rudin. It has this, you know, this, this thumbprint of quality. And this is a little different. There's a little trashier, which is what those books are. Yes. And I'm not, do you think this might be poison for Claire's campaign? Well, I guess the question is how many people will see it? How many people will be aware

of the fact that it is a failure? Or, I mean, we don't know. It's not out yet. But that if it doesn't meet expectations and doesn't propel her to greatness, if it goes away quietly, I don't know. I think-

Your posture right now is wonderful. You're hugging yourself with discomfort. I don't really know. I think five years ago, yes, massive poison. Now I think there are so many things to see and so many people talking about everything, including this podcast, that you can just not be aware of something.

A lot of things just kind of die in the darkness, including democracy. But anyway, so I don't know whether people will know that it's a failure and that she like failed to be a huge, big budget star. I just don't know if that's on enough people's radars. And I do also feel people just really love The Crown. They say that on your interview podcast all the time. All the time. People just come in and they're just like, hey, The Crown's great. And people at the Oscars and especially the acting branch in the Academy, which is the largest block of voters in the Academy, they just love to give people awards for other stuff. You're not always voting on a particular role.

You're voting on a moment, a career. Too true. Yeah. See Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour, Al Pacino, Sense of a Woman, on and on and on. Right. And there is also, particularly with actresses, they really like to knight the new up-and-comers. And it's like, oh, it's your time. Like Alicia Vikander, Jennifer Lawrence, Think Back. So I do think... Perhaps ingenue will be a buzzword in the future that we'll discuss. Possibly. So I don't know. I don't think it's great. It's certainly not how they planned it. I think that she won the Emmy for the crown so recently and so many people like it. And she does seem to be kind of the buzziest performance in First Man. A lot of people who

are turned off or not quite connecting to the coldness or the measured performance in First Man. A lot of people who are turned off or not quite connecting to the coldness or the measured aspects of First Man are attaching their interest to her because she really is like, she's the emotion, she's the anger, she gets to scream at the bunch of boys. Bunch of boys that also would. She is the life in the movie and she kind of blows everyone else out of the water. So I think even if First Man kind of continues to not get the attention that it does, she might do okay. For the sanctity of this segment,

would you say First Man is stock up or stock down? Stock down. And what about Claire Foy? Is neutral an option? It is not because this is a regimented game that we've created for this podcast. I mean, this is so cruel that you're making me say this. I think it's probably Stockdown.

Oh, you heard it here first. Amanda Dobbins has decried Claire Foy. But it's not over. It's just, it's not over. It's not how it was supposed to go. It is merely October. And so we have a long way to go. And perhaps First Man's Campaign will be riveting and powerful.

It's actually quite a good film. Let's go to our next segment. This is called The Big Race. You can imagine what it's about. We're going to break down a race every week on this podcast. And this week's race is very interesting to me. I've written about it for TheRinger.com. It's Best Actor.

It's a bunch of boys. It's a bunch of boys and their balsa wood. I can't recall a Best Actor race quite this loaded. I count 15 people who could credibly be nominated. Even though I personally feel I have a pretty good sense of the people who could credibly be nominated. Even though I personally feel I have a pretty good sense of the six to seven who will be nominated, there's a strong case to be made for a number of them. Let's just talk about the favorites for a moment. Bradley Cooper, who we spent some time discussing, although perhaps not enough at the top of this

podcast. Boy, he's definitely going to be nominated. He is the lockiest lock of the year. Do you write songs or anything? I don't sing my own songs. Why? I just don't feel comfortable. Why wouldn't you feel comfortable? Almost every single person has told me they like the way I sounded,

but that they didn't like the way I look. I think you're beautiful. I think there is a decent chance that he wins, that this movie wins five out of five the first time they do it since Silence of the Lambs. I think he is a huge, strong contender for best actor. I assume you agree with me. He's the one to beat.

He is the one to beat. It's astonishing. And I do also feel that everyone who walked out of Star is Born, you know, wow, that was pretty good. And then immediately just talks about how good Bradley Cooper is. That is the first reaction of every single person who sees it. Yes. And it checks a couple of the classical boxes. It's a story about a great man. It's a story about a great man who has some substance abuse issues. It's a story about an artist.

It's a story about a person with some tragic elements in his life. It's a love story. So he gets to be emotional. Yes. He gets to play guitar. He gets to sing. He gets to look quite handsome playing guitar also. His hair is gross and stringy and yet majestic. Yeah. His face is beet red. He interacts with a dog.

Great dog. Yeah. So he made a lot of talk about dogs on this podcast. So yeah, Cooper, he's in the driver's seat. And he also does kind of fit the it's time narrative, which is... Maybe it's time, as it were. Which I'm very disappointed that they did not submit maybe it's time for a best song consideration. Wonderful song written by Jason Isbell. Yes. Also the fact that he also adapted and directed this movie. People like to reward that kind of enterprising work ethic. He did it all. So he'll be nominated in a lot of things. And I think this is probably his surest block.

I agree. We've talked a bit about Ryan Gosling. I think his station is kind of coming back into our orbit a little bit. I thought for sure, even when the movie was released, he would have been nominated. But he made a choice, which I think is an interesting choice for a filmmaker, or excuse me, for an actor. I think he tends to jump from extremely charismatic person to extremely quiet person. You know, you can see like performance in a movie like A Place Beyond the Pines. Yes. And then in a performance like La La Land. Right.

They feel like two different actors. Big short drive back and forth. Exactly. Taciturn or big. Yes. It's an inner conflict made transparent for all of us.

Incredible. Very well put. And this is a quiet one. And I think he's quite good in this movie, but it is a performance of focus. It's really quiet

and I think some people will admire it. Some people, it'll be lost on a bit. And you, typically in these categories, you want something grabby. I do think there's also just an element. He is traditionally not a campaigner. And we'll talk a lot more in the next four months about what campaigning for an Oscar looks like, especially for the actors and actresses. You got to be out there. You got

to be visible. You got to show people that you want it. And Ryan Gosling is reluctant to do that. Gary Oldman, who won last year for portraying Winston Churchill, very famously went to every event. He shook every hand. He looked everyone in the eye and said, I want this. I'm here for this. I have an incredible body of work. I've been nominated before. I'm one of the best living actors.

I deserve to have a best actor statuette. And he got it in a walk. And there's been this long history recently of very predictable best actor winners. And I have a theory about this that I've been calling the Tom Hanks theory, which is that in 1993 and 1994, Tom Hanks won consecutive Oscars for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump. And everything that happens in the 90s after that in the best actor category is weird. Kevin Spacey wins, which is kind of weird and looks really weird now.

Roberto Benigni wins. Nicolas Cage wins. A number of people, Jeffrey Rush famously won over Tom Cruise and Jerry Maguire. It was a weird category, very unpredictable. And then in the 2000s, it starts to even out a little bit because I think that actors figured out the game here. And there's no one Hollywood loves more than an actor who looks you right in the eye and says,

thanks so much for being here. It's an incredible honor to meet you. That is the true power of story of Hollywood. And somewhere along the way, somebody figured out how to do this. I assume that Bradley Cooper is going to be this person, but let's talk about a couple of other people who might undermine that campaign. This week, Bohemian Rhapsody comes out. And that's starring Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury, the lead singer of Queen.

I enjoyed the show. I also write songs. A lead singer just quit. Then you'll need someone new. I love the way you move on stage the whole room belongs to you bohemian rhapsody which i don't think you've seen amanda i have not yet uh is bad it's not a good movie all right um it's it's very paint by numbers stephen hyden wrote about it for the ringer this week and famously uh when reflecting upon somebody who called it a wikipedia entry said it was an insult to wikipedia because the movie gets so much wrong about queen

but rami malek is incredible in this movie right and it is a complete transformation and it is a cliche to be on a podcast talking about the oscars and note that an actor has transformed into a real person yes but he has transformed into freddie mercury is a really, really classic Oscar role. Yes. And Freddie Mercury, of course, was a person from modest beginnings who transformed himself literally into, from a Farouk Balsam into Freddie Mercury, this big, expansive, operatic lead singer of a rock and roll band that was a huge hit in the 70s and 80s. He also died tragically, and he had many great moments in front of hundreds of thousands of people. And Malik is incredible in this movie. May I ask you one question?

Yes, you may. Does he sing? He does not sing. Right. And I don't think that I'm going to hold that against him. I don't think that we should hold it against him. I think that he can. I'm sure that he's great.

And I'm looking forward to seeing it, even if it's uneven. Stephen Hyden also noted that it's actually kind of a fun movie to watch just because it's Queen songs really loud. Yeah, I'll just go sing along. And Queen is great. That's great. But there's one interesting thing about this performance that is a little different from say, I don't know, Jamie Foxx in Ray or Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line. Yes. In which those two guys performed the songs of the artist. Even if Rami Malek doesn't sing, he has to move like Freddie Mercury. Johnny Cash didn't move. Ray Charles didn't move.

He sat at a bench. Johnny Cash stood behind a microphone with a guitar in his hand. The sort of quintessential scene of this movie is the Live Aid performance that Queen did. And it's recreated essentially shot for shot and move for move, moment for moment. And what Rami Malek does in the movie is amazing. And there's something complicated here where the movie's not very good. It's directed by Bryan Singer, who's obviously been cloaked in controversy and negativity for months in the aftermath of all of the accusations around him. And also accusations of just general unprofessionalism for which he was fired from this movie.

So I don't know if they'll actually reward it, but I'm very interested to see. I'm excited. I will talk a little bit more about types of performances that aren't usually rewarded, that should be, and physical, not just transformation, but physical activity is not as rewarded as often as it should. So I think it would be interesting.

In general, though, you got to sing to win. That has been the history. And fortunately, Bradley Cooper is also in this category singing. So I think you're right. Let's go through a couple of others. Ethan Hawke, of course, gave kind of the quote unquote first great performance of the year in First Reformed. And I'm a little worried that he's going to get nudged out.

And there's a couple of people who might nudge him out. We have a late addition, which is Clint Eastwood, who's in a movie that no one has seen called The Mule coming out in December. Well, they've seen the trailer right before a star is born in a fantastic piece of synergy. Expertly accomplished. Of course, Bradley Cooper is in The Mule as well. And there is a pecan reference going through both of them. That's so true. Yeah. It's really, really, this is not a coincidence. It's a fascinating thing. I don't know how good Clint is going to be. The truth is Clint has never won Best Actor.

He's been nominated a couple of times. He's won for Director, but he's never won Best Actor. Also, who's a great classic American film star who has never won is Robert Redford, who was in The Old Man and the Gun, which is really one of the best and most underseen movies of 2018. Redford's only been nominated one time as an actor. This was supposed to be his swan song. Now he's kind of backtracked a little bit on whether or not he'll retire. Maybe we'll see him there. Other people involved.

We haven't seen Christian Bale in Vice. Christian Bale does a voice and puts on makeup. He's probably going to be nominated. Yeah, this is the one that no one has seen, and it's not coming out till the very end of the year. And pretty much everyone who does Oscar stuff for a living is reserving a spot for him. Absolutely. As just kind of a, he will sweep in in December and have the timely movie role and get a nomination, which that seems right.

The other person who has been earmarked in that way is Viggo Mortensen for Green Book, which we very briefly mentioned, which is a period piece directed by Peter Farrelly, who people will know from There's Something About Mary and Kingpin, mostly comedy, is directed with his brother. This is a solo directorial role, and Viggo also has never won before, even though he's been nominated in this category in the past, most recently for Captain Fantastic. Supposed to be very good. He plays a driver driving a jazz musician, I think through the American South in the 1960s. That jazz musician is played by Oscar winner Mahershala Ali, who I think you and I both adore. Number one fan, yeah. So I'm looking forward to Green Book. I have not seen it yet. Nor have I. There's a couple of others that I thought were going to be in for sure and now

may not be. One of them is Lucas Hedges, who has two roles this year. The boy movies. The boy movies. Bunch of boys, really a theme on this podcast. Truly. Maybe we have a subtitle for this. Yeah. So he is in both Boy Erased and Ben is Back. Correct. That's correct, right? And then there is another movie also in conversation called Beautiful Boy, which stars Steve Carell and Timothee Chalamet. Yes. And Carell is maybe in contention for Best Actor here, though I doubt it. But there has been a lot of confusion between the one Chalamet role and the two Lucas Hedges roles, which are all movies about, they're kind of classic Oscar movies in that they are serious character studies about a particular social issue or

tragedy contained in one performance, in this case by Lucas Hedges or Timothee Chalamet. But there are three of them. They're kind of titled similarly. They're coming out at the same time. I think that they're all getting confused together a bit. They are. Beautiful Boy has actually done pretty well in limited release. Yes.

And if it goes wide and does well, I have this kind of nascent feeling that Chalamet is like a really, truly a movie star waiting to break out. And even though Call Me By Your Name, he was nominated for and it was a quote unquote art house hit, it didn't have a huge audience. And I think that there is a movie that is going to come in which he will have a huge audience. I feel like he could make a movie like this a lot of money. Boy Erased is not out yet. That comes out at the end of this week as well, a limited release. Lucas Hedges is a wonderful actor. He's also very good in mid-90s Jonah Hill's movie. I feel like he may have tripled up in a way that might hurt him. I would agree. He's kind of splitting his own vote. Yeah.

He's very good in everything. He's a really great actor, but I have not seen Ben is Back yet. Nor have I. I don't know that any one performance is memorable enough or any one movie really is memorable enough to outshine the other two and kind of get past the general Lucas Hedges Hayes. So I agree. He may have overplayed this particular hand. I want to make one more note about this category. There's three people who are not really being discussed. And I have a theory about why they're not being discussed. Those people are John David Washington, Denzel's son, who is the star of Black Klansman, Chadwick Boseman, who is the star of Black Panther and ostensibly one of the biggest movie stars in the world now. And Stephen James, who is a star of Barry Jenkins,

If Beale Street Could Talk. All three of those guys are African-American. Yes. For whatever reason, they're not in contention this year. They're not, if you look at all of the odds makers, if you look at the punditry, they're just not. John David Washington, probably the most of the three of them. And I think that there's going to be a big push for that movie in Best Picture and Best Director. But what do you think is going on there? I mean, there's obviously an on-the-surface idea. I mean, there's the very obvious, yes, the basic racial issues. Yes, I certainly think that's part of it. I think Black Panther's place in this whole award season race is really interesting. It's not really being considered as an actor movie, even though it should because the performances in that Marvel movie compared

to the performances in all the other Marvel movies are just shoulders above everyone else. And, you know, I do think some people have been talking about Lupita or... Letitia Wright or Angela Bassett. Yes, exactly. In the supporting actress category. Maybe Michael B. Jordan. Right. And that seems, you know, the Oscars do this annoying thing where they'll they treat the supporting actor in acting categories as kind of grab bags.

And it's like, oh, that was fun. Sure. Why not? Totally. But they won't do that very often in actor and actress. So that's part of it, even though I think Chadwick Boseman gives a really lovely and serious performance. And, you know, Beale Street's interesting, right? Because you've seen it I have not it does not come out until later in November and there has been some conversation but it's not quite as big as well I guess Moonlight was released earlier. It was it was I think it has some

things in common with First Man right which is unfortunate given how Chazelle and Jenkins have been tied together but there is a kind of elegant quiet to the movie, and it is a faithful adaptation of James Baldwin's book. And, I mean, we'll have plenty of time to talk about it. I think the two things about it that are most striking to me are the photography and the performances. And he's basically working with actors that, for the most part, barring maybe performances from Regina King and Brian Tyree Henry,

these are people we haven't seen before, among them Stephen James. And so it's a little unclear if maybe there will be a push for those actors as the movie comes on and it gets into the consciousness. I'm not quite sure. Before we finish the show up, do you have any wildcard picks for best actor that you want to nominate? Thank you so much for teeing that up. You're welcome.

Yeah, let's talk about Tom Cruise. Yeah. Let's do it. Let's do it. What are you waiting for? I'm jumping out a window. What do you mean you're jumping out of a... Oh, sorry. I had it in 2D. Good luck. So as I mentioned earlier, the Academy tends to reward certain types of performances and not others. And they don't tend to reward certain types of performances and not others. And they don't tend to reward jumping out of a plane. But maybe they should. I'm just saying, you know. Speaking of physical.

Exactly. It really is the level of the physical stunts and just the things that he does. If you can win an Oscar for gaining or losing a lot of weight, I think that you should be able to win an Oscar for jumping out of a plane and fighting someone on a cliff and driving your motorcycle on the wrong way through traffic around the Champs-Élysées. You and I both saw

Mission Impossible Fallout together and left elated. It is the best version of what that kind of movie is and what it can do. And it is kind of the best version of what Tom Cruise can do in phase two of his life.

Perhaps phase three. Phase four. Who really knows? Who couldn't say? Yeah. It's an interesting thing. I mean, as I said, when he got passed over for Jerry Maguire, I thought that that was his Oscar and he doesn't have an Oscar. He's literally the greatest movie star of the last 30 years, does not have an Oscar. Yeah. And it's probably too late for him.

I think you're right. I think that there's too much extra baggage. Extra baggage does affect voting for the Oscars, and there's a lot going on there. Absolutely. That we don't need to discuss. Certainly. I do think it's worthy. I didn't see anything else like that at the movies this year. It's a great call.

I'll put in a small note for John C. Reilly, recently a guest on the Bill Simmons podcast, who is really great in this movie called The Sisters Brothers. He has two other movies coming out this year, Stan and Holly about Laurel and Hardy, and also Holmes and Watson, which is a comedy with Will Ferrell. So it really is a big John C. Reilly year. And I think akin to the Claire Foy girl in the Spider's Web move, there was going to be some sort of big campaign and John C. Reilly produced The Sisters Brothers. He bought the book with his wife and optioned it to make it he hired the filmmaker and then the movie kind of came and went and nobody really saw it and it wasn't really a big deal but it's a very

good it's at worst a very interesting movie and i think it's his best performance ever and he's i don't think he's gonna be i don't think he has a chance to be nominated and that's a sad thing because i don't know anybody who doesn't like John C. Reilly. So he would be my wildcard pick. Amanda, did we talk about everything? Did we solve the Oscars in the first episode? Yes. We don't need to have it now.

We can just vote today. We've done it. Everybody, submit your ballots. Thank you so much for listening to this first episode of the Big Pictures Oscar Show. Hopefully, we'll see you in two weeks.