The Big Picture - Is ‘Three Billboards’ Actually Just ‘Crash’ 2.0? Plus, Other Oscars Takes | The Big Picture (Ep. 52)

Episode Date: February 27, 2018

Ringer editor-in-chief Sean Fennessey sits down with The Ringer’s Amanda Dobbins and K. Austin Collins and New York Times critic Wesley Morris to discuss eerie similarities between ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ and the notorious 2006 Best Picture winner, ‘Crash’ (0:00). Then, Chris Ryan joins to discuss ‘Shape of Water’ and its status as the clear front-runner to win Best Picture (0:00).More on the Oscars from The Ringer:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLiI3wRw9PbSYHic2RJiHo4UxfhVD2DYWbhttps://www.theringer.com/oscars Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I just don't want to fight over La La Land or Three Billboards. It's not worth fighting about. Crash. That is a movie worth fighting and dying over. I'm Sean Fennessey, editor-in-chief of The Ringer, and this is The Big Picture, a conversation show with filmmakers. However, today we will not be having a conversation with filmmakers. I'll be having a conversation with some of my colleagues, and there's a good show with filmmakers. However, today we will not be having a conversation

with filmmakers. I'll be having a conversation with some of my colleagues, and there's a good reason for that. It is Oscar week. Oscar week is a very exciting time at The Ringer. It's a very exciting time in the movie world. And to mark that time, we recorded a series of videos here at The Ringer where we had a series of conversations about the biggest questions in the Oscar races this year. I was a part of some of those conversations. And so I'm looking forward to sharing some of them with you here in audio form. Some of them will be about three billboards and whether or not it is, let's say, Crash 2.0. And another one will be about the Shape of Water, which many people consider the front runner in the Best Picture race. And, you know, kind of identifying out of these two big movies,

what is really leading the pack and why and what the ramifications of a win for those movies will be. In addition to that, I hope you'll check out the rest of our Oscars coverage on TheRinger.com. We're doing a ton of stuff this week. We had a look back at the 2013 Oscars. Miles Suri, Andrew Gratodaro, and Cam Collins did that. I jumped on the Bill Simmons podcast along with Wesley Morris, and we talked about the 2013 Oscars as well. There'll be a series of written pieces, including by me.

I'm trying to predict all 24 categories. I suspect I'll get at least 34% of those guesses wrong. And then on Sunday night, the big night, we'll be doing an after party and a little bit of a pre-show, looking at all the races and everything that happened on the big night and examining Jimmy Kimmel's performance and how will they reckon with moonlight one year later. And if there's really going to be some controversy in this best picture race,

and if there is this conversation, we'll get you primed for the pump. So here is Cameron Collins, Wesley Morris, Amanda Dobbins, Chris Ryan, and myself talking about the shape of water or get out or ladybird or phantom thread or the post or coco it's about three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Martin McDonough's story of a woman

reckoning with the murder of her daughter. And it's a complicated movie. Everyone at this couch setting has talked about it and thought about it a lot. Part of the reason it's so controversial is because it's a bit polarizing about what it means to be an American, especially a white American,

and how it relates to the rest of the people that live in America. And it has made a lot of people think this might be Crash 2.0. What does that mean? In 2005, Crash, Paul Haggis' story of race and power and police forces meeting in the center of Los Angeles, won Best Picture. It is widely regarded by many experts as the worst movie to ever win Best Picture. We can disagree about that if we like. But need we? Need we?

I've seen the greatest show on earth, my friend. And let me tell you, Crash is no greatest show on earth. So with that in mind, historically speaking, if three billboards wins Best Picture, do we have a Crash 2.0 on our hands? Yes. Yeah. Yes.

Yes. Yes. Why would that be the case? Well, for all the reasons you so eloquently explained in your setup, mostly having to do with this idea of a movie's thinking it's seeing something about this country that it's not seeing. And to be fair, this is actually worse than Crash in some ways, because at least Paul Haggis had a point of view that as wrong and as appallingly short-sighted as it was, I could identify

where that movie is coming from. You know what I mean? I know exactly who that guy thinks he is. The Hollywood Hills? Yeah, and he just put his arm around Daniel Kaluuya and said, you know, how long has this been going on?

This thang. That is Crash to me. how long has this been going on? This thing. Yeah. That is Crash to me. Yes. Paul Haggis would have voted for Obama four times. I know the person who made that movie. I understand where it comes from. And I know exactly what about it makes me angry.

Three Billboards is a much harder movie, at least for me, to put my finger on what exasperates me so much about it. Because it really thinks it's onto something. Right.

And it has no idea what it's onto about. And what's so interesting is that it has won the Golden Globes, it won at the BAFTAs. So many people have embraced it.

Barbra Streisand's reaction to its winning at the Golden Globes. Yeah, but they, it has kind of taken the role of I'm voting for this because I think

it says something about this time in America. Many of those voting bodies are international. Yes. The BAFTAs is seeing America. The Golden Globes is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association seeing America. And of those voting bodies are international. Yes. The BAFTAs is seeing America. The Golden Globes is the Hollywood

Foreign Press Association seeing America. And this is a movie made by a British-Irish person. Yes. Yes. Martin McDonough, he has a name.

We should use it. He's like Voldemort to you. Yeah. I, man. I rewatched Crash recently and I was taken aback by how much more I understood why people were seduced by it. That's not something that I really gave it credit for until last week. But Three Blue Boards, I've had so many conversations, so many arguments,

and I don't think I'm seeing what other, my friends aren't seeing. Like, I don't think I understand how in that movie you can just take the shots, for example, of black people in the background, peering on as, as a white person's misbehaving, and sort of that's their entire character, that's their entire inner life, and not immediately think, oh, this is bullshit. Like, I, I. I just, I don't, Crash is different for me because I, again, I watched it and I was like, you know what? I see why people thought this was deep. I don't think it's deep.

I think the music's bad. I think the acting is weird, but not always bad, actually. But there's no moment in Three Bullboards that has this. You're my best friend. You're my best friend.

And that woman is like, I have no idea who this bitch is. Right? I don't know. There's no smoldering Matt Dillon, either. It does have something, though, that you and I have talked about a little bit, which is it has a portrayal

of an extremely angry middle-aged woman, which is not a character that we see in movies that often. No, and I think Frances McDormand is very good in this movie. I have thought a lot about that performance, while also not thinking that the movie comes together, not thinking that the movie should win Best Picture at all, and being kind of baffled by what affirmative statement people think they're making when they vote for Three Billboards.

Like, I don't understand. Well, what do we, like, let's explore that, because I think one of the biggest controversies around the movie is a feeling that Sam Rockwell's character, he plays a fired deputy in a small town police department who is notably a racist and also a very violent cop. There's an expectation that that character at the end of the movie is redeemed. And that seems to be something that a lot of people responded to, the concept of

this racist was redeemed by the narrative arc of this story, and thus this movie is invalid. And so I want to hear from you guys if that matters, if it matters if we feel that, and if then the movie is somehow less worthy. Well, that's basically Matt Dillon's character in Crash. I don't have a problem with redemption. We're talking about American movies. That's all we do. Right, right.

I don't have a problem. I mean, true, this movie is once again made by a British-Irish person that thinks it's American, but whatever. That doesn't bother me at all. I mean, in the scheme of all that's wrong with this movie, it is one of its problems. But I actually, it's not the fact that he's redeemed. It's more the ways by which this movie considers redemption

not even completed, but how it thinks of redemption as a worthy project for this character to partake in. And at the same time, the point at which there's this weird mix of the violent stuff, the racism, the sort of weird small town violent stuff, the racism, the sort of weird small town quirky stuff. This is a guy,

Martin McDonough, who is, when he's working on the stage, you know, a lyrical thinker about human interaction in some ways.

I mean, he's got race problems on the stage too, but I do think that his attempt to apply his theatrical project to a movie is interesting. I just don't know... I don't know where this movie is going. And I don't know where it wanted to go. And so by the time you get to the last shot of this movie,

which I won't spoil for anybody who hasn't seen it, but two characters are on their way to do something. And the thing that they're on their way to do is for me, the most morally difficult thing in the whole movie. And then the movie ends. And I feel like the end of that movie is the thing that pissed me off the most because it's the hardest thing as a human being to have to dramatize and it just cheap I mean I I didn't like

anything that came before that last shot or that last sequence. But it affirmed how bogus and counterfeit everything that led up to that sequence was. I didn't believe this as a small town in America. I believed it as a small town on a soundstage in some man's mind. Okay, let me interrupt you, though. Because Martin McDonagh's previous two films are In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths.

Purposefully absurdist, ostensibly humorous movies that are very violent and reaching for the ceiling in terms of plausibility. This movie, for some reason, largely I think because of the context in which it was released, is being made to seem as if it is more meaningful than his previous two movies.

Now, part of that is the cognoscente and the intelligent people of the world interpreting it, and part of it is the way that the movie is presented by a studio, and part of it is the way that he discusses it when he's being interviewed. It's a collection of all those things. But do we have to accept that?

Or can we say that this movie is more frivolous and set aside whether it should win this picture? Is it important? Do we have to care about it in this context? Well, I mean, the movie's playing with dynamite in a way that, for example, in Bruges, I can't find any, I don't think of anything in Bruges comparing to a movie about a rape murder.

Can I suggest a counterpoint? The movie opens with the murder of an awful priest. And it's completely a reflection of Catholic guilt and also the awfulness of the Catholic Church. That is a very heavy concept that is made to seem funny and about the anxiety of an assassin. Right. And that to me is different than a woman trying to explain why her daughter was raped and murdered totally outside of the movie, combined with a police department that has a history of violent racist tactics, combined with all the other million things going on, the relative lawlessness of this middle American town,

that to me is like, that to me is, I mean, I think he also knows when he writes that into a script that he's dealing with big American themes. It is very much an algorithmic, what is wrong with America? Gender, race, wrong in America? Gender? Race? Small town America? I don't know. I think the movie inserts itself into a big question, a big

conversation, and then isn't quite up to the task of that conversation. But I don't know. For me, the problem is not Sam Rockwell's character having a kind of moral pivot to caring about the violence at the heart of the movie. That to me is not implausible.

He is a policeman. I do think some part of him cares about justice. But it's more him in the context of the rest of the film throwing people out of windows with no repercussion. It's just like I don't understand this world. This world, right? I just don't get it. It's the movie's moral framework that that irritates me yeah and i you mentioned this this pre-scene in bruges

the the my bogus alarm goes off in three billboards when he basically takes that scene and just implants it in this new movie where Frances McDormand, there's a priest in the house who's come to call on Mildred to basically tell her to calm the fuck down and chill out. And her son is there.

And I mean, this is a, you know, old, your classic priest. I don't know what he's doing in this town. What is anybody doing in this town? Great point. What is the guy from Spotlight doing in the middle of Abbot, Missouri? I don't know.

Anyway, this guy's there sitting at her dining room table and he's trying to allow her to see reason and Frances McDormand's character, Mildred Hayes, decides to unleash holy hell verbally on this priest. It's a speech that comes from nowhere except some writer's awareness of a larger problem that he is far more familiar with in his own life, which is priest abuse and pedophilia in the Catholic Church. It's authentic in the sense that it sounds credible, but in the context of this other

movie, it just sounds like, I don't know, like another movie just farted or something in a scene that didn't need the gas. She also uses the Bloods versus the Crips as sort of like a cudgel to explain her anger and death, which is not a good choice. It's almost like, I mean, I have expressed this suspicion before, but it really is like this guy

was given a stack of things that happen in America, and he worked with a team of people to be like, bloods and crips. Let's just put that over here. We're going to take Clarence Thomas out and put him over here. Police racism. Let's try to figure out a way to bloods and crips that. We'll put that over here. Got to get the priest in because I know how to do that. What are some things that we can use to signify that Mildred is of the people? Like a normal. We'll get her to wear some coveralls. We'll do like research that. What are some things that we can use to signify that Mildred is of the people? Like a normal... We'll get her to wear some coveralls. We'll do like research that, get the costume designers on that. And what is a way that this that this sort

of very plain American woman can express her outrage and get law enforcement to act? She should use the computer? She should use the Internet? Oh no no no no no no that don't do that. She should not like have a video that goes act. She should use the computer. She should use the internet. Oh, no, no, no, no, no. Don't do that. She should not have a video that goes viral. She should pay money that she doesn't have to shame the police captain with some fucking billboards

that don't even light up. Right? I mean, that somebody can burn down, which they do when they don't like them. I just feel like, what is this movie about? Okay, there's an expectation that both Francis McDormand... I'm sorry, I just...

I like the idea that if they flashed, you would be fine. I mean... How come? Chief Willoughby. Okay, it's understood, though, I think, that Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell are likely to win in their categories. Best actress and best supporting actor.

When did that get decided? Again, at the beginning. That's been the most frustrating part of this season, that there's been no change. Right. So even if Three Billboards does not win Best Picture, there's still a coronation moment. Frances McDormand will likely go on stage,

and she will thank Martin McDonagh and she will valorize the message of this movie. I just wish she were better at these speeches. I understand it's a really small point and part of a much larger point. It's not. It kind of validates the whole thing. Because, listen, the movie doesn't make any

sense. Everything you just said is true. If she were the only one winning, how would you feel? If it were just for her and nothing else, I mean I won't speak for you. No, no, no. I mean I'd be fine with that.

I should say. I don't know when you guys saw this. I saw this movie in August. It opened in November. Well, no, I'm not. You're a very fancy person I'm clearly not bragging everybody you guys should be

paying me for seeing it but I saw it I didn't know who made it I didn't and when it was over I was like oh okay well that's why it all none of it makes any sense the person is an American and it's not to say that

a non-American person can't tell searingly true and accurate stories about this country. It happens all the time. We just had 12 Years a Slave win Best Picture. We can start there. I just...

There was just something just off to me. So when I left there, I was like, oh, well, too bad for them. Sorry, Fox Searchlight. Better luck next time. I really thought that. I was like, I don't know what I'm going to tell those guys when they ask.

I'll think of something. I mean, I just didn't think, I thought like Robert Benton, I thought if Robert Benton, the maker of like Places in the Heart and Norma Rae, if that guy had basically taught a screenwriting class to a bunch of Europeans who also didn't, but Robert Benton couldn't speak whatever language the class was in,

so it was translated for the people in the class, that's this movie. It's just totally, totally bogus. But if Frances McDormand wins, I'm fine, but now we have to have the Frances McDormand conversation. And the speeches are so bad.

The speeches are... Representation. Oh. Oh. Let's talk about that, though, because she's already won an Oscar. I think she's been nominated four times in her career.

She won for Fargo in 96. And I think to this point, she had kind of one of the great reputations in Hollywood because she was one of the only people that you could reliably trust just to not bullshit you. You know, she would get on stage and she would be wearing whatever she chose to wear. Then she was not, you know,

parroting that Givenchy had dressed her up that night. She was just like, I got this at the Gap and I didn't do my hair and this is who I am and this is the person that I am and this is what is important to me. It is acting and it is my career and it's this movie I worked on

and that's it. Everything else is bullshit. And now, she has become this avatar for a problematic movie and she is really riding hard for it. She is really making an effort

to say this movie matters. Does that change her perception? I mean, wait, what is the desired answer to that question? You know what I mean? I only write the questions. Right. Because, you know, there's a version of this movie that is like, oh, Frances McDermott voted

for Trump. That's not... But you know, but you know, but you know that some of the unsophisticated arguments against this movie are trying to trump it. That is not how I feel about this movie. This movie does not work as a movie. It does not work as a movie of ideas. I am not inserting this movie into any political discourse that is currently happening.

The people who love this movie are doing that. And some of the people who hate it, I object to its doing that because it's not worthy of this moment. It's not sophisticated enough to speak to any of the shit really happening. I'm eager to read somebody, I'm sure the New York Review of Books in March, somebody

will try to find a way to make the argument this movie actually is doing the very things we're saying it doesn't. But Frances McDormand being the poster for this movie actually is doing the very things we're saying it doesn't but francis mcdormand being the the poster for this movie the the spokesperson for how good she believes this movie is that doesn't bother me at all she's in she's in the movie she has no choice it's not going to change the way i feel about francis mcdormand yeah i think the thing for me is that she has always posed she was the cool cool Hollywood person. She didn't care. She was not actor-y. And the juxtaposition of the way this film is being received

and her speeches, which as Cam already noted, they involve agents, they involve I'm here and this is my time and I want more from her. And I want more from her as a person and I have thought about the performance. It would make it easier for me to stand by the performance if she were more aware and she is she did say stop giving me stuff stuff and give them to give some stuff to the young people that's true I mean she's still relatively she does know she's in best actress though yeah young people always win

and she should be like thank god you give it to me it's a good point yeah I have one last thing I feel like we need to bring up, which is that, Wesley, you wrote a very powerful piece about this movie a few months back for the New York Times, and Sam Rockwell's dad took issue with that piece. Yes. What was that experience like, seeing a comment from one of the performers of a movie

on your story? It was the most civilized comment I was made aware of. All he said was, I've seen this movie and I like it and I'm the father of the guy who plays Jason, the cop in the movie.

I'm proud. I'm a proud father. Should we have invited him here today? Well, I will tell you, I used to work with Pete Rockwell at the San Francisco Chronicle. Oh.

And he was a delightful man and he might not remember this, but he wanted me to know that when I'll never remember which movie it was it might have been Charlie's Angels Full Throttle but I don't remember which it might not have been that

but he was in some movie and he was so proud of his son being in this movie that he had somebody he was too proud to do it himself because he knew he shouldn't, just because you shouldn't do that to critics. But he had somebody come and tell me that he was really proud of the work his son did in this movie.

And Sam Rockwell had made a handful of movies at that point. This was like 1999 or 2000. And I never forgot that he's so proud of his son. It doesn't bother me at all. That's how this goes. Like, of course you're not going to agree

with everything I say. I think Sam Wilde is fine in this movie. That is the worst category and I wish him well. I don't, I so don't care who wins supporting actor

with all due respect to all five of the very fine nominees. And also Armie Hammer. So that doesn't bother me at all. I really, I really, I love you. I had to. It doesn't bother me.

I think it's great. I mean, I'm... I don't want to say I'm rooting for Sam Rockwell, but as a career, as an actor, I'm really fond of him. It's time. No. It's not time. No.

It's fine. You know, I... The problem's not him. The problem... For me, it's just... It's a bad movie. I agree with Wesley. My central frustration

with the arguments over this film have been that for those of us who haven't been fond of it, we've still say that there were problems, but I would attribute them to taking on a difficult question and the difficulty of taking on a difficult question and taking it seriously. And I just don't think that this movie is worth that conversation. Which is why I'm frustrated that, like, everyone

in my life wants to argue about this movie no matter what side they're on, because I'm just like, I really I wish I could quit this movie, you know? This is, I mean, again, this is, I wish I could quit this movie. You know? I, this is, I mean, again, this is, I mean, comparing it to Crash is a really great idea

because Crash really does kind of satisfy a lot of negative feeling that I, a lot of sort of negative visceral feeling that I enjoy getting from a movie

that doesn't work. Right? It's not just I mean, Three Billboards is bad but it's not the worst movie you've ever seen. Right. Crash is the worst movie you've ever seen.

Especially if you're an American. Or a housekeeper. Or a cop. Or a car. Or a fire. It's the worst movie you've ever seen. And it just so satisfies so many things that are so good to feel bad about. And Three Billboards doesn't come close

to making me feel that way. Do you guys? Yeah. It's confusing. It's really confusing. It is confusing that it is a Best Picture nominee. My opinion, which is the least relevant as the sole white man on this panel,

is that I think it's not bad. That is the whitest response to that movie you possibly could have had. I have virtually no interest in defending it. And I am very interested in the dialogue around it. I just think it is a clear victim

for lack of a better phrase of polarity. A moment in which the way that we discuss things is slides from one end to the other and there is no middle. And I think, Cam, what you're saying is right. It's okay if this movie's just not good.

Like, it might just be not good. That doesn't mean it's a flaming tire fire that then catches on three billboards and then burns in the night sky. It doesn't have to be that. It can just be like, not that great. Or maybe you could be like, I kind of liked it. Yeah, bad masterpieces are hard to come by

and I feel like we... But this is where we are though, right? Like, every year there has to be some movie and I was in our pre when we talked about the shape of water I'm really dreading that like there's some energy out there that needs it to be that movie

and I can't allow that to happen not a movie about a fish and a woman directed by a Mexican it just can't happen so let it be this movie that really is trying to do something about now but is failing.

But I don't know that it has to happen at all. I knew we were crazy when we were fighting over La La Land. I knew America was broken and really needed some time on the therapy couch when we were fighting over fucking La La Land. I mean that's the thing. It's actually not a victim of the polarization. It's benefited from it fucking La La Land. I mean, that's the thing. It's actually not a victim

of the polarization. It's benefited from it. It's right. I mean, La La Land was a victim of polarization. And I don't even like La La Land that much, but I'm not crazy.

It's a fine movie. And some of it's really good. That ending, man, gets me every time. I mean, the ending gets an Oscar. Not Barry Jenkins' Oscar, but an Oscar.

It gets Best Director which it actually won. I just feel like I just feel like we gotta have better stuff to do. Yeah. I just don't want to fight over La La Land or Three Billboards. It's not worth fighting about. Crash. That is a movie worth fighting and

dying over. Thanks for checking out that segment about three billboards. We're going to transition now into another conversation. Cameron Collins is going out. Chris Ryan is subbing in. And we're going to chat a little bit about The Shape of Water and whether it really could win a fish sex movie. Best picture at the Oscars.

Guys, there's only one juggernaut this Picture at the Oscars. Guys, there's only one juggernaut this year at the Academy Awards. Only one movie that has 13 nominations, one short of the all-time record. There's only one movie that is about fish sex, and that movie is the juggernaut of the Academy Awards. It's called The Shape of Water.

It's written and directed by Guillermo del Toro. And pundits, experts, oddsmakers, and maybe Wesley Morris think it's going to win Best Picture. What will that mean if a movie about fish sex wins Best Picture? First of all, look. We gotta stop calling... I mean, I know it's like a great shorthand for what the movie is, but isn't it... I mean, it is about fish sex.

It's about fish sex. Not only that, it's about the desire for fish sex. Right. But the punchline, of course, is, I mean, I don't want to... There's a payoff that I won't ruin for everybody.

There sure is. And... Pay off, not payload. Jeez Louise. Anyway. Immediately you start looking at my fingernails. It's like a nervous tick. I just feel like this movie is such a weird,

like, I don't know how we decided that this was it. I mean, we don't... Do you know anybody who loves this movie? Has anyone ever met anyone who loves this movie? Because I think that there are people who love, actually love, almost every other Best Picture nominee. Tons of other movies this year. Real, actual passion. Even for Three Bullboards. Even for Dunkirk.

Even for Darkest Hour. Nobody loves this movie. The people who love it are people who make movies. And it's because the reason it has so many nominations and the reason it has the support of so many guilds is because it touches a lot of different parts of moviemaking, a lot of different aspects of storytelling that I think people who make movies really respond to.

And this happens every year. We find movies. La La Land was literally the example of this last year. La La Land was an achievement, kind of a cross frame. It had great sound. It had great music. It had great dancing. It had an interesting script, interesting performances.

And when you have the tic-tac-toe, it's not something singular like Phantom Thed where you're like, whoa, these performances, whoa, that script. It ticked all the boxes, and I think it's possible that a movie can be well-liked enough to become the most powerful.

Yeah, that's good enough, the Sally Field argument. It's funny, that's a great. The Sally Field argument. Right. It's funny. That's a great question, Chris, because I actually, I don't know anybody who loves it either, but I know lots of people who like it. I'm one of those people,

which is why I'm willing to speak on its behalf as a... Which you have been doing. I'm this movie's congressman. Emerge from the wild. The king of Atlantis. I just feel like throw a trident down.

I accept. I accept. I'm willing to be that person. Because, I mean, well the other factor in this is Guillermo del Toro himself. Right. People like him a lot. I think everybody voting in the Academy knows that he...

Basically, this is the last... This is the last Pokemon you need to, like, have a whole set, right? Sure. Yes. We're really mixing our creature metaphors here. Alfonso Cuarón has an Oscar. And yet, he too has two Oscars. Um... It's a nice thing to give

it's more than nice he earned it I think I just it is just an interesting thing that this love story is

is gonna be the thing it could potentially be the thing that wins Best Picture I have a good sense of how you guys feel about the stories

that Guillermo del Toro tells. But before you share those feelings, maybe Wesley you can help us understand what it is that del Toro does, why people think he's such a master filmmaker. Well part of it is what you were saying before about the movie aspect of his

the movie-ness of his movies right? He is a person who is the only other person I can think who the Academy likes in this way of the movie-ness of his movies, right? He is a person who is... The only other person I can think who the Academy likes in this way is Tarantino. A person whose relationship to the world is through the movies first.

And I always find that to be... I mean, with a good director, looking at the world that way can be really interesting, right? I mean, this movie, if it's about something other than fish sex, is about... It's in some ways about taboos and discrimination

and, you know, the ways in which the government is an active agent in proliferating those problems, right? It's presented in the hokiest sort of B-movie terms, but if this movie has something that it's arguing for, it is kind of, I mean, on its face, interracial relationships, but also something as corny as destiny, as it turns out.

I like that. Any of this resonating with either of you guys? No. Not at all. I can't believe that in a year like this, with the movies that we have in this Best Picture category, that the allegory is actually going to win. That the movie that's one step

removed from actually saying something that is essentially drawings being stuck up on a wall and the wonder of what we don't understand is going to win when we have all these movies, whether it's something from the 19th set in the 1940s, something set in a slightly altered reality, or something told from the 1990s, is going to be the movie that we choose to say,

that's the best picture. The one that's sort of just about this fantasy land of like government conspiracies and amphibious men. It's like, why, it just seems like completely out of step with the times. Yeah, this is the no creatures couch. Yeah. Which is something that Chris has died on this argument

for a while, just like, why does it have to be a beast? But I feel that way. It extends to Paddington. Oh my God. Oh. Wait, wait. Wow, that's, come on. Come on, Paddington. Oh. Wait. Wow. Come on.

Come on. Easy. This segment needed a villain. Yeah, we have one. A beast wears a ring coat doesn't make it less of a beast. I'm still not interested in this narrative. But he's got a little accent, too. Yeah, he doesn't have a soul, though.

Oh, man. Oh, boy. Okay, I stand with you. You know that, right? I'm sitting here with you. No beast. But to go back to Wesley's point, even if it is, I stand with you. You know that, right? I'm sitting here with you. No beast. But to go back to Wesley's point, even if it is,

it is well-made. It is a love story. It's hard for me to resist a romantic story like that. And it's nice, except why does he have to be a damn fish? And why does he have to look like that? And I understand why,

but I don't need that extra supernatural layer. And it takes away from me. But then what movie? Then it's like a John Cusack movie without the community. I love John Cusack movies. Well, but then we're not having an Oscars contest. It's just Cards Against Humanity card now. With all the different little elements of it where it's just like,

what if the neighbor was gay? And what if the person was mutant? What if the guy was a fish? And Michael Shannon is Michael Shannon. And it's just like, ultimately it scans like, basically like Tim Burton without a sense of humor. Tim Burton... No sense of

humor? Wait, I feel like Tim Burton doesn't have a sense of humor. Well, he stopped having one about 20 years ago. Which version of Tim Burton? It died in Mars Attacks. Or maybe Ed Wood. Maybe that was the last. I think Wahlberg killed it on Planet of the Apes. Probably. Anyway. Anyway. I think Wahlberg killed it on Planet of the Apes. Probably. Anyway.

I don't know. I really like this movie without loving it. But I also want to defend and be in favor of the thing. It's a Guilherme del Toro movie. Like, there's no... I mean, there's a sort of movie-to-movie argument to make against his movies i guess if you're inclined to do that but i just don't want this elevated to something

that it was never meant to be in the first place this is not this is not like beating up on something that is your classic oscar bait movie this whatever we're talking about has happened to this movie nobody nobody involved with the making of this movie asked for it to happen. Sure. And so, here's how I see it. It's Del Toro's Departed. It's a movie that is after his masterpiece,

which was not properly recognized in its time, which I think was Pan's Labyrinth. Pan's Labyrinth. Devil's Backbone! Also a great film. Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for many Oscars, and that was sort of a coronation for del Toro as a great director.

And it didn't really win very much. And it was a movie that was allegorical, but also very real, because it was set in wartime, and it felt very specific about what it was like to be in Spain at that time. Because it was lightly passed over, we have to wait ten more years

to now officially recognize him, the same way we have to wait a long time for Martin Scorsese to be recognized for The Departed, which is a little bit of karaoke Scorsese, fun as that movie may be. So now we're finding this moment where everybody who hates del Toro movies has this karaoke del Toro movie, and they're like, this is why

this isn't good. He just tells fables with creatures and I'm not interested in that. And everybody else is like, I like his movies just fine. That was a rude impression of us. But also, but also, everything you said is true, so it's fine. That's how I feel. But it is fine. That was a rude impression of us. But also, but also, everything you said is true, so it's fine. That's how I feel.

But it is that, and I think... That is well pushed. Yeah. That may be true, but I would also speak, it's not just Shape of Water, it's not just that a Del Toro movie

is being recognized. If I can speak for you, it's because we like other movies this year a lot. Yeah, you can make an argument in which this movie, if you're putting it up against, say, like,

Jedi, and Lady Bird comes out in March, and it if you're putting it up against, say, Jedi, and Lady Bird comes out in March, and it's beloved, but doesn't have the legs, and maybe Get Out doesn't catch on as the kind of

cultural phenomenon that it did, and it's a February horror movie, and how could it possibly be an Oscar movie? And Phantom Threat doesn't exist.

Yeah, and there's all sorts of sliding doors realities in which this makes sense as a Best Picture nominee, but not this year. Right. Not this year.

As a nominee? No, as a winner. nominee, but not this year. As a nominee? No, as a favorite. As a favorite. We can get into the three billboards thing later, but that even for all the issues that people have had with it, I feel like the conversation around it is an actual conversation. It's not like this

kind of like, well, God, the sound design's great. You know? You're a regular old guy, though. You're just a man who makes podcasts and content all day. You're just thinking about the world, but you don't make movies. And people who make movies do actually think about those things. And that's actually why this movie has a serious chance to win.

Yeah, but that's the... We were talking earlier about The Post and why The Post has been overlooked. And everyone on the couch really liked The Post. And part of that is because we're journalists and we like the process of it. And we're like, oh, this movie's close to us we recognize it, it does all these things really well.

I'm an Oscars preview host. I'm not a journalist. But you know, I do think some of it is also, that's great for everyone who, I'm glad that this movie exists for them and that they could recognize the craft in it, but I didn't really like watching it as much as the other movies and I don't want it

to win Best Picture, and that's as simple as that. That is perfectly legitimate. Your rationale is really good if the Oscars is a luncheon. You know what I mean? Your rationale makes sense. If it were 1927. If we're not talking about this for months leading up to and weeks

afterwards. But the fact of the matter is that despite being voted on largely behind closed doors, it's an open door ceremony. It's an open door speculative event. So I think that that's why you're seeing people really sort of buck against this embracing of a movie that people are like, I don't mind

being upset. I just want the movie that wins to make a point, to take a side. I want to be on the other side of a fence, not being like, what's going on over there on this tree? Let's just talk a little bit about point to take a side. I want to be on the other side of a fence, not being like, what's going on over there on this tree, you know? Let's just talk a little bit about how it could win. And I think if La La Land

had won last year, my perspective is that I would have felt 100% certain that The Shape of Water was going to win. Because it would have indicated that the code of the Oscar hasn't changed. Moonlight winning redefined what we thought could happen. But Oscar voting, especially the best picture voting Oscar hasn't changed. Moonlight winning redefined what we thought could happen. But Oscar voting, especially the best picture voting,

is very complex and very slightly difficult to understand because it's not just who got the most votes. Right. It is who got the most votes if the winner has more than 50% of the votes. However, with nine nominees, that very rarely happens. And so then what happens is the voting leads to preferential balloting, which means that the movie that gets the lowest number of votes is removed. Bye, Call Me By Your Name. Or The Post.

Or Darkest Hour. Oh, Darkest Hour! Darkest Hour! Bye, Darkest Hour. Yeah, it will get more votes than Call Me By Your Name. So if you remove Darkest Hour, and then those votes then slide up to the number two spot, and we're essentially pulling from second place votes.

And those second place votes are tallied with first place votes. And because of that guild strength, because the writer's guild, the producer's guild, costuming, special effects, sound editing, all of those categories represent the body. And the movie also has multiple acting nominations, which means it's very strong among the SAG group. It really has a strong chance to win.

As much as we want Get Out to win, or Lady Bird, or Call Me By Your Name. This is how you elect a French president. It doesn't seem like how you should decide best picture. What would you do instead? Well, I don't know. I think that sounds like a really representative idea of energizing the entire voting block,

and I think that that ultimately, probably more years than not, will lead to really interesting and creative races. And in some ways, maybe not the same spectacle as last year, but something that is genuinely surprising. I personally do not think that this is much as a wrap as maybe it sounds like you're saying. We're all talking about what a letdown it's going to be, or some of us are, if it wins.

But I actually, just even anecdotally, don't think it's that locked up. I think one of five movies could win, right? Yes. When's the last time we've been here? Most unpredictable. I mean, last year was pretty close, too. Actually, you know what?

My crazy opinion is, knowing how the voting works, I think Hidden Figures came in second, not La La Land. I really believe that. And I, I mean, I can't be proven, so I can just keep saying it all day.

But I do, I think that movie probably came in second. And I think this year, I think it's gonna be one of those five movies, and it could be Shape of Water, but I definitely, I think it's going to be one of those five movies and it could be Shape of Water, but I definitely, I think it's even, I would say it's evenly split among those five movies. Phantom Thread?

You know what I'm saying? Unfortunately not Phantom Thread, but, you know, one of my top three, that's it. We watched the Oscars together last year and there's almost like a sort of sense memory that I have of the anticipation of turning the Oscars off because as soon as La La Land won I would be like we're done. You know there's something about if Shape of Water wins that will be the turn it off. We're done.

We got it. Like you said this was going to happen. It got the most nominations. It got all these Guild Awards and then it won. The excitement comes from the possibility of four other movies winning. I mean if Dunkirk wins, we're going to have all sorts of arguments about how we never saw this coming, even though there were some rumblings.

In July, that was your Best Picture winner. Oh, yeah. And then if Get Out or Lady Bird wins, if there's going to be or if Three Billboards wins, it's going to be this huge storm of, not controversy, but I think conversation about what it means. I just think it would be nice if one

of those four movies won rather than the movie that's going to make us all flip the television off immediately. It does seem possible, right? It does seem that The Shape of Water could be rewarded in the technical categories. It seems like a lock that Del Toro will win Best Director, which I have no problem with. But, and then, Best Picture

seems the most open in terms of Based on what? based on feel based on feel and the preferential ballot and the last couple years when some of the technical and director

categories have split from Best Picture a bit more right can I also like just make one other like isn't this interesting

uh case for Shape of Water keep trying keep trying I mean, find me another Best Picture winner

or serious Best Picture contender that is also, in many ways, a genre movie. And, I mean... Aside from Get Out? And this year,

there are two. Yeah. And find me another year where that's been an option. Right? And then to have that genre movie, like a genre, a type of film, a type of movie that, you know, five years ago would have been passed over.

I mean, nobody was thinking at the Oscars about Del Toro when Del Toro was... You're making an important point, though, that when they expanded the pool to as many as 10 nominees 10 years ago, that was the intention, and in that first year, we got that. In that first year, we got Toy Story 3,

and we got District 9. Yep. Oh, there's another one, District 9. And those are genre movies. Now, Toy Story 3... Excuse me, maybe Up. Toy Story 3 and Up were... No, no, Up was the first...

Up came first, and then Toy Story 3. Right. In successive years, there were two animated movies nominated and also District 9 in that very first year. And those are closer to the kinds of movies that the Academy wanted to recognize. Populist, fun genre movies. It could be more that this is a trickle-down effect of the tectonic shift that we've been seeing over the last 10 years

where less movies are being made. They put more money into these bigger tent poles, superheroes, cosmic movies. And then the trickle down is the genre movies become prestige and then the dramas just become A24 movies. You know, or small, small films. No shots at our friends at A24. No, I love them.

They're all great. But what I'm saying is that like, you get more movies like The Martian, like Gravity, like Argo, like Dunkirk or whatever, that are, in any other year, maybe you'd say, were a cool space rescue movie, a cool shoot-em-up,

or a cool rescue movie, like spy movie. Like just an I had fun at the movies type movie. Yeah, exactly. And are now instead prestige, best picture-warranting dramas. And are now instead prestige best picture warranting dramas. And out of Africa and just doesn't exist. That kind of like human drama with a slightly wider screen

doesn't really exist. This is also the same category though that less than 15 years ago gave a Lord of the Rings movie best picture. It had to. That was a correlation. That's a good point. I forgot about Lord of the Rings. But why did it have to? Because I think it was a huge achievement. I think that that was like,

we're not going to bother with it the first eight years that these movies are being made, and then we'll just give it everything the last one. But it was nominated all... It's not like they didn't know the story every time. Each one of those movies was nominated for Best Picture, and that was when there were five options. Yeah.

I just feel like... I don't know. There's obviously been a change in terms of the way we think of what a best picture is. I think it's stunning that of those nine movies, three of those movies are what we would deem classic best picture nominees. Dunkirk, The Darkest Hour, and The Post.

Those are in any year. When you look at your preview for X year, you can see these three movies on the schedule, just put them in. Your best picture nominees. And think about it this way. It's as many as ten nominees, and it could be as few as

five, based on the voting. So imagine a world where the five nominees this year are the post, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside of Ed. Oh my God, I just died. What would be the story of the Oscars? I love The Post.

Yeah. You know, what's interesting is I wonder if in future Oscar campaigns, the failure, quote unquote, of The Post and Dunkirk to really get traction will make other people be like, we should take a run at this. Because I remember back in June or whenever the first set photos of the Post came out, people were like, they shouldn't even have the Oscars this year. They should just FedEx these statues

to Spielberg, Hanks, and Street now. And it's a completely forgotten movie in terms of the awards conversation. Well, let's use that to pivot forward a little bit then. I think Blumhouse and Universal were incredibly savvy about the way that they positioned Get Out all year. This was a really tactical campaign that they pulled off.

And we have a movie that has some similarities right now that is dominating, and it's called Black Panther. That already, after just two weeks into release, people are like, this movie should be nominated for Best Picture. And there's a little bit of a blueprint for it now. Do you think that with the Logan Adapted Screenplay nomination, a lot of the frustration over Wonder Woman not being nominated this year.

And Dark Knight. Don't forget the Dark Knight bitterness that still causes to our culture. Yes, an unhealed wound. I mean, it's true. Are we going to be having this conversation about can Ryan Coogler do it one year from now? Listen, here's the thing about Black Panther.

Oh boy. This is going to, wait. Okay. Fortunately, you're saying this. Yeah. Oh, come on. I feel like, how do I put this? I feel like he should have done,

I feel like Creed should have done better when Creed came out. Yes. I think that in the eyes of whoever didn't like that movie or liked it but didn't love it or shape up watered it. Don't, I loved Creed. Don't look at me. No, no, no.

I just, but I do think that it was a movie that a lot of people liked and they thought, I don't, I mean, I don't want to accuse the, I mean, I don't want to say it was racism that kept that movie from doing better. But I will say that it was something about the presumptuousness people felt Ryan Coogler had in doing to the Rocky legacy.

It's a huge sports movie. What he did, and there's that. But I also, so I mean there's this there's a kind of like he's in the oscar ether in some way anyway as a as a non-nominee um i also think food fail station was a movie that when it when it happened at sundance and then when it came out in summer was also something was a movie that seemed like it was on a train to the Academy Awards. I think, I don't know, I feel like Black Panther, I mean, I was saying this to you earlier,

it wouldn't, it definitely wouldn't hurt, it wouldn't, this is right now after two weeks, I have no time to have this gestate to become more of a cultural thing than it is, but it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't get nominated. It's certainly likely that it could. But I mean, the movie that I was thinking about in terms of when there were five Best Picture nominees

and one of them being the People's Slot, which happened pretty much every year there was a People's Slot movie made by a great director or a promising one or somebody with a clear vision that would you know history would prove would last for you know 20 34 years but star wars star wars comes out in 77 is a best picture nominee um and i think that black panther i mean it's much more likely for it to be a Best Picture nominee with this current voting system.

Once it's nominated, then what? And does Coogler get a Best Director nomination? There's all this stuff that'll be interesting to think about as the year goes on, not knowing anything that's coming out between now and December. When will you guys start your campaign for Black Panther? It wouldn't matter. I don't think it would win anyway. I don't think that the movies... For as much as there's a People nominee,

and for as much as I think that we're more and more grappling with the idea that superhero or genre movies are prestige movies, actually, I just think that everything from Avatar to Dark Knight to the lack of... I mean, honestly, I'm sort of surprised that we didn't have a larger conversation

about Last Jedi being nominated for Best Picture. I think partially that was because of the entire conversation about that movie became about the backlash, about who was telling the story about that movie. And there was plenty of really good criticism about the film. I think if it was 30 minutes shorter and they'd never gone to a racetrack, that you might have that conversation.

But when we walked out of that movie the first time we saw it, I was like, I think they might, they might nominate this movie. There's a lot of really, like, incredible, memorable scenes that I probably will remember long past I remember a lot of the stuff

that got nominated this year. I just don't think that Black Panther, I would think it would be amazing if Black Panther got nominated. I cannot see it being sustained all the way through the year and then being made as a convincing case of why it should win. And I think also, to speak to your universal point,

Disney and Marvel have a lot of irons on the fire and running a year-long Keep Black Panther in Mind, which I feel like they did for Get Out. Can I just say something about Disney and Marvel? Sure. Black Panther doesn't need Disney and Marvel to do anything because they got black people. That's true.

Black people will get that movie nominated for Best Picture if it comes to that. Yeah. I don't think they have to spend... This is the thing that kind of is like nauseating to me about the relationship between the corporate aspect of the Academy process and, you know, the popular aspect of the of the academy process and you know the popular aspect of the academy

process and this is this is the crazy tension right that when when january comes and you know you know selma blair and patrick wilson are reading the nominees uh it's a great look for Patrick Wilson I don't know why I picked them are you shipping them? yeah when they read the nominees and Black Panther isn't there

given given the work I believe black people will do without Disney and Marvel's prodding the like

sincere belief that this this is already one of the best movies of the year, it's gonna be some really interesting cultural shit going on if that is

over. And it's almost like I don't, I actually don't like that because it, I'm actually torn. I don't want to say that I don't like it, but. But because it's new. You know, this idea that you can have like a people... You can hashtag something into the Oscars.

Right, exactly. I mean, there's no precedent for that. There's now a kind of precedent for hashtagging people out of the Oscars. Yes. But hashtagging a movie or a person into them is a really, it's a new thing. And it'll be interesting to see, A, whether it works or happens, and B, what happens if it doesn't happen.

Listen, if there's time for me to announce it, I'll be leaving the ringer to start my nominate Hailee Steinfeld for Bumblebee, in 2019. I don't think the viewers know what Bumblebee is. What's that? I don't think the viewers know what Bumblebee is. That's a big problem for Paramount, they spent like $150 million.

Is she playing a Transformer? No, she's a buddy, a Transformer friend. No! Yeah, the little yellow part. I literally didn't know what Bumblebee was. I thought I was like, this is a dope joke, and everybody's just like, what's that? I really didn't.

This is not viral marketing for Bumblebee. But yes, this went off the rails. There's one other aspect of this conversation. In the same way that Black Panther doesn't need Marvel and Disney to continue its efforts anymore, largely because an audience has found the movie in a big way. Marvel and Disney, as they have become the most powerful collaborative group in Hollywood over the last 10 years, have shown absolutely no interest in awards whatsoever.

They're the only studio, with the exception of the best animated category, that just doesn't campaign. They just don't care. They are interested in getting people to see their movies and making money. And that's it. And they are the best in Hollywood at it by far.

Can I... I love that. I really do. I mean, I just think the Academy voters should just pick the movies they fucking like. That was my case

for Jedi. As opposed to the movies that have been shoved down their throats. Just pick the movies you like. And if you like a movie, tell a friend. Use your podcast.

I know I'm serious. I really believe in this. And I know, I know, tell a friend. Use your podcast. I know I'm serious. I really believe in this. And I know, I know, I know there's a total historical argument for that hurting all kinds of movies that I like. Hurting people of color. Hurting women who do shit. I feel like things have to be the way they are for a reason, but there's a kind of absolutist and idealist in me that just wishes the voters with a little bit of prodding, but not like Weinstein era level harassment

of the voting academy, not of women, but although obviously. Really threatening to you. I just wish it would happen naturally and I don't know. I kind of miss it. It was never really super totally natural, obviously. There's always been campaigning and lying

and things that go on to get people nominated and stuff, but for the most part, it was very different 25 years ago versus 25 years later. And... Yeah, Amanda was able to power

Call Me By Your Name to the mountaintop, but not Armie Hammer, you know? So it's give and take. It's too soon for that. She's still upset. At the end of the day, does the fish sex movie win Best Picture? Chris?

No. Amanda? No, I'm feeling optimistic. Wesley? Offended Wesley? No. Oh, but now you're sad. Now I feel bad. No, no. I'm not sad

that it might lose. Del Toro will win best director. Yeah. And that'll make me happy enough. Okay. But despite your very good craft argument and the branches sort of coming together to celebrate this movie, I just think the numbers are going to be,

like, by like, you know, 100 votes are going to be with some other movie. I'm going to say that it does win. And that's going to be a real quagmire for a content-creating company that has to find an interesting way to translate the dullest movie out of the bunch winning Best Picture. And it's a wonderful year. It to translate the dullest movie out of the bunch winning best picture.

It's a wonderful year. It's not the dullest movie of the bunch! The Dark Hour! Did you see The Dark Hour? It's Darkest Hour, but yeah. Whatever! Now I'm the Darkest Hour! Like, come on! It's not the dullest movie

of the bunch! You just called it a fish sex movie! That is the true achievement of the bunch. You just called it a fish sex movie. How dull. You're saying that he managed. That is the true achievement of the film. They made a fish sex movie boring. Yeah. Thank you so much for listening to today's show.

For more Oscars coverage, please go to TheRinger.com where you can find all manner of writing and podcasting. I'm also making an appearance on Against All Odds with the great cousin Sal talking about the odds and the races. And please be sure to tune in on Sunday night where I'll be joining the Watch co-hosts, Andy Greenwald and Chris Ryan, as well as Amanda Dobbins, breaking down everything that happens on Oscar night. And please tune in later this week. On Friday, I'll have a new episode of The Big Picture with Francis Lawrence, who is a famed music video director and also the director of a few Hunger Games films and I Am Legend.

And he's got a new movie with Jennifer Lawrence, his old acting partner, called Red Sparrow, a.k.a. Sex Spies, which is what it's known as in the Ringer office. So please tune in for that and see you next week.