The Big Picture - Oscar Nominations: What We Know and What We Don’t | The Big Picture (Ep. 120)

Episode Date: January 22, 2019

Our instant reactions to the 2019 Oscar nominations pose as many questions as answers: Is 'Roma' the new favorite? Is ‘A Star Is Born’ doomed? And why couldn’t the Academy get it together for Ethan Hawke? Then we turn to the never-ending 'Green Book' saga in Stock Up/Stock Down and examine the Best Picture betting odds as they stand on January 22. Hosts: Amanda Dobbins, Chris Ryan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelley, and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. Before you start the show, I wanted to tell you about our brand new podcast called Tea Time. It's a bi-weekly pop culture show on the Channel 33 feed, where me, Kate Halliwell, and Amelia Wedemeyer have four minutes in each category to get at our strongest opinions about what's happening in the celebrity world at large. The episodes air every other Friday afternoon, and you can subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Good morning. I'm Amanda Dobbins, and this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about

the Oscars. Sean Fennessey couldn't be here today, so I am joined by noted moviegoer and Ringer editor, Chris Ryan, who loves A Star is Born and hates cartoons almost as much as I do. Chris, good morning. What's up, Amanda? It's before eight o'clock in the morning. It's before you and I like to kind of move into our prime content making. Yes, but here we are in Los Angeles because this morning, as you may have heard, the Oscar nominations were announced. So we're just going to jump right into it. We're going to start with the big pictures, big picture. This is a problem in the big picture. Do you know what I mean? Which is in this case, the Oscar nominations. Chris, how are you feeling? I feel pretty good. There's some really interesting snubs. But for the most part, I feel like we're in for a really interesting couple of weeks here with the jockeying and seeing whether or not the movies that seem to be the obvious walkaway favorites are able to keep their lead.

Yeah, so we are going to talk about snubs. We'll talk about surprises. We'll talk about betting odds. We'll talk about Ethan Hawke. Don't worry. We feel the same way you do. But first, we kind of just want to take, you know, as this category is named, a slightly bigger look, the big picture at what these nominations are. And I was struck, Chris, because I think the biggest takeaway is that Roma did really well this morning. It has 10 nominations. It's tied with the favorite for the most nominations this year. And there were a couple of happy surprises. Yalitza Aparicio in Best Actress and Marina de Tavira in Supporting Actress.

Those were not a given and we're very happy about those. And they also suggest that the Academy is taking a closer look at Roma than other guilds or other awards bodies have thus far, which we kind of expected, but also it was one of those things that we thought was going to happen, but it didn't really happen until this morning. And so that's good news. And I would say that generally that means that Roma is a bit more of a favorite than it was, say, Saturday night when Green Book took the top award at the PGAs.

And we're going to talk more about that as well. But so it's interesting when we started this, when we started this Oscar pod several months ago now. Wow, I can't. It feels like years, but it's only been months. We talked about this larger narrative of old Hollywood versus new Hollywood. And Roma representing, obviously, Netflix and the way that people seeing movies changing and the industry at large changing versus what we thought would be A Star is Born, which is a kind of old Hollywood classic movie with movie stars and romance and melodrama and a typical Oscar favorite.

And we thought that the narrative would be this battle between what Hollywood was and what Hollywood can or will be. Yes. And it's interesting because we do have that debate now, but now it's Green Book instead of and Roma. Yeah. And if you even want to go back even further to B.C. times before this podcast. Yes. I think Black Panther and Star is Born were as the year began as after Black Panther came out and after this, even just the trailer for A Star is Born came out, I think that that was what we assumed would be like, wouldn't it be a great Oscars if it was like this old school Hollywood musical based,

you know, romance against the best, that are the best box office phenomenon could be. That the Marvel movies had their best wares out on the table and this is what we did. And then we were just back to Driving Miss Daisy office phenomenon could be that the Marvel movies had their best wares out on the table. And this is what we did. And then we were just back to driving Miss Daisy. And I think that we were all a little bit defeated by it. So in some ways, the Roma rush this morning is kind of like booing.

It makes me feel a little bit more like happy to be engaged with this process. Yes, I completely agree. I will say I still feel a bit of worry. I would say that Rome is the favorite right now, and we'll talk more about betting odds, but I'm with you. I feel cautiously optimistic, which is just, I mean, right down the hour and day that I said that, and I'm sure I'll regret it. 7.52 a.m. February 24th, I will be wrong and I will be crying publicly, but I would agree that I'm feeling better than I was, say, yesterday. I am nervous about the next six weeks because I do still think it is this old versus new Hollywood discussion. And in a lot of different ways, it's Green Book versus Roma, as you pointed out.

I think it's Green Book versus Black Panther. You know, there's an element to this of the host stuff, which was, there's still no host. I guess we're just not going to have a host. That's fine. Ethan Hawks free. I'm just saying. It's true. And we don't really have to talk about it anymore.

But I have found myself thinking a lot about the Kevin Hart interview with Ellen, which was really jarring. But in a lot of ways was this protect the castle moment between two celebrities of how dare you speak to us this way like how dare you question our ability to do these things and there is a little bit of a similar conversation settling around green book yeah particularly the people who are still advocating for green Book. And there is this question of, are people advocating for it because they feel threatened? And there's this, it's just a movie line, which I don't endorse and which it's not just a movie. If these were all just movies, we wouldn't do this podcast. But there is this sort of Hollywood under siege aspect of it that I think applies to Green Book as well. And I think that that might get a bit uglier before it gets better. Right. And I think that this is at once the

exhilarating and nauseating part of engaging with Oscar race watching, because what we're really talking about is what these races say about America. Right. And what we're seeing, and I think you're alluding to, is this idea that there is a contingent of people who support Green Book who are tired of being told not to support Green Book and thus will support Green Book even more. And that was, I think, maybe what the PGAs were about. Yes. Yeah. But obviously, there is like this huge wave of Roma support. And what I think will be also fascinating, we're talking about this old versus new Hollywood I'm not exactly sure

you could probably speak to this better, Sean could speak to this better about what the award season infrastructure is for Roma, you know what I mean? Like what Netflix has, how far along Netflix are in that process of understanding how to advocate and how to position and how to shape narratives and

possibly even how to put out counter narratives for other movies. But it'll be fascinating to see what people try to say is wrong with Roma. Which really, the only piece I've read that even kind of, aside from some Twitter chatter, has been that believer piece that was like, you know, this film is privileged in and of itself. Yes.

I don't know whether or not that will be something that emerges as a stronger narrative against Roma. Because so far there hasn't been too many arrows shot in its direction. That's true. Because in large part it has not really been at the forefront of conversation. It won the Critics' Choice Awards and it won a lot of Critical Bodies Awards. But it couldn't compete in either Best Picture category at Golden Globes. It's been waiting for the Oscar nominations, I think, to take its place at the front of the pack. And now it has, and we have about a month until the Oscars.

And I agree with you. I don't know how someone is going to take a swing at Roma, but I'm sure someone will. You know, I think it's also the Roma campaign, I believe, is one of the most expensive Oscar campaigns in history, which is interesting in a way. They're definitely campaigning in an old school way. It's a new studio and new, but it's a lot of things coming together and they will very much still be out on the trail doing all sorts of things. And when you are that prominent is when people decide to take a closer look, as you will. Yeah, I'm really fascinated to see what happens when Netflix's super chatty Twitter account gets involved. Oh, yeah.

And they're just like, fam, we won the Oscar. And then it's like a picture of an egg. You know what I mean? Whatever it is that those crazy kids want to get up to, I'm down for it, though. Yeah. Some other things to note. As you mentioned, Black Panther got its Best Picture nomination. Thank you to Oprah and her friend, Bobby.

Also, Spider-Verse. Shout out to Spider-Verse. A movie neither of us has seen. It's drawn, so no. Yeah. Somebody drew that. As we alluded, this is not the cartoon hive, but superheroes finally getting their respect. We should also note Incredibles 2 is technically a superhero movie,

even though if it's not one of the universes. So, you know, the Oscars, they like superheroes now. They have no choice. These are the movies that people are going to see. And if they want anyone to watch this broadcast, they're going to have to have some people in capes up there, you know, in some shape or form, whether it's animated or Michael B. Jordan. That's true. So that's a positive development. How does that affect your popular Oscar theory, which you noted here in the

doc? Yeah, I mean, I just, I think that this is obviously was an idea that was tossed out there. I think it was actually suggested that this was going to happen, right? And it was the best popular film. And they had not quite outlined what that meant. And it was rejected so soundly that they pulled it off the table. But John Bailey relatively recently said, you know, for as roundly rejected as it was, it's not totally dead yet and it still has some support. And Ethan Hawke, who won't be joining us on Oscar evening

in any meaningful capacity, but lives in our hearts as he brushes his hair back and goes and buys himself an Ethan Hawke-themed ice cream cone somewhere in Brooklyn, pointed out that there already is a best popular film Oscar and it's called The box office. And I think that that was probably ultimately the

most sane way of reacting to this idea. But I do kind of wonder whether this year's nominations are essentially the PowerPoint presentation John Bailey will use for next year when he's like, this is why no one watched the Oscars. And that's because there's no crazy rich Asians and there's no quiet place and there's no Mary Poppins in the Oscars. And that's because there's no Crazy Rich Asians, and there's no Quiet Place, and there's no Mary Poppins in the Best Picture. Now, I don't necessarily think all three of those films should have gotten Best Picture nominations. There are a lot of movies before that

that I would have given a Best Picture nomination to. But it is a really compelling case to say, hey, you want this to be relevant. We can't even get someone to host this damn thing. And we've got a couple of movies here that no one's seen or heard about. So maybe we should get Emily Blunt floating down from the ceiling every once in a while.

I would agree with that, except the counterpoint to that is that Black Panther is here in Best Picture. And if Black Panther cannot bring an audience to the Oscars, then I don't really think Mary Poppins can. I don't think Krasinski can either. And to be fair, it's not like they didn't nominate

a bunch of $5 box office art films here. Bohemian Rhapsody, against a lot of people's better judgment, is in this category, and it is an enormously popular film. I mean, Black Panther, an enormously popular film. Roma, I'm sure Twitter will tell us, has been watched by a billion people. You know, I mean... Twitter will tell us that, and Netflix will,

and then we'll never be able to verify it. Yeah, and, you know, A Star is Born did very well. I think Black Klansman had legs, and Green Book, obviously, is Green Book. So it's not like they nominated a bunch of films nobody had ever heard of, but I do think that they're... I don't think that this argument is dead yet.

And I think that the nominations are going to unintentionally restart it. Can we talk about A Star Is Born for a second? Yeah. We're going to be talking about a lot in this podcast. This is, I did what? 15 minutes without really sharing my feelings. But now I got to share some feelings.

Hit me. I'm feeling really hurt. I watched A Star Is Born again last night. You know, it's an excellent film. A Star is Born? Freaking A Star is Born. That movie is so good. And it was obviously nominated in many categories, though not one significant category. We'll talk more about that. But Outlook, not good for A Star is Born, just based on its performance thus far in awards ceremony, the general narratives, Cooper kind of being overlooked, Lady Gaga doesn't seem like she's going to be able to bring it home. And I think that's really sad and we can talk more about that. But I think it's pretty fascinating just in terms of the narrative that the old Oscar saying is that, you know, the Oscars love a movie about Hollywood.

If you make a movie about the industry and about fame and it's super self-referential, it'll always win Best Picture. And this is a really classic old Hollywood movie. It has movie stars and it's not going to win anything. And I think that's kind of fascinating in what that says about what people want to see at the movies right now. Yeah, yeah. And I think it's a bummer. I wonder if we'll regret it in five years.

This seems like a real five-year, what were we thinking situation. Yeah, and speaking of, it's not necessarily popular in terms of box office, but in terms of like, what are we doing here? Which is, I think that we really started talking about this and I'm sure there's been huge disagreements and huge travesties in Oscar voting over the last hundred years or whatever it is. But, you know, like in my mind,

we really started talking about the Oscars a little bit differently after 2008 with Dark Knight and whether or not we're going to, and expanding the field to best picture to 10 to account for movies like that. And as we're going to, and expanding the field to best picture to 10 to account for movies like that. And as that's going on, I don't think that that ever really got the results that people thought there would be.

You know what I mean? Like, I don't ever think that like it fixed itself. And since then, I think that there's been a lot of conversation about like, how do we get this show and this award ceremony to represent the things that whoever wants it to represent. And to me, there's no better example of what Hollywood and our concept of it can do. The music, the cinematography, the production design, the costumes, the performances.

And I just wonder whether or not... Was it secretly too damn dark? Like, is this movie just the message at the end of it just too dark? I mean, because I always kind of wondered whether or not that last CODA performance by Gaga at the end of the movie is tacked on to like make sure people aren't just sobbing in their seats. I mean, they still are. Yeah, when it cuts back to him in the piano, I started crying again last night. But it's so Hollywood, you know what I mean?

And I almost, I was just, I've been trying, like, was it, did it come out too early in the year? Is it too self-serving? Did Bradley Cooper not as popular as we thought he was within the various guild communities? And the only thing I keep coming back to is it's a bummer. Yeah, I think that that is a good point. It's interesting, right?

Because on paper, these are the nominations that, well, give or take a couple, but having Black Panther in this list is, to your point about 2008, it's what we wanted. And we've been waiting for 10 years for this to happen, for a popular film, for Hollywood to, you know, kind of stop looking at itself all the time. So we,

in that sense, we shouldn't be mad that A Star Is Born is not winning all the awards because that's what we've been, we've been asking them to change for so long. But there is something that's so special about this particular film that it just feels like a disappointment and like a missed opportunity. I just think also. I'll go one better. I also think it's really cool that that's like of these movies, A Star is Born is the only one that's contemporary. I mean, Black Panther is contemporary, but it's in a sort of a fantastical world. It's not like I think A Star is Born tells you what it's like to be alive right now, but in a weird way, I feel like it's more of the moment. I don't know why. I mean, I think in terms of like, maybe I feel like it's more of the moment. I don't know why. I think in terms of like, maybe it's because it's about celebrity and fame.

It's viewed as being superficial, ultimately. I don't know. But it feels very of the moment, along with Black Panther. Yeah. You know, maybe it's just that it's the movie for adults. Yeah. And those don't do well. People went to see Bohemian Rhapsody as a family, as a large group of people.

You didn't overthink it and even though we all should have overthought it and let us may we all and especially oscar voters continue to overthink bohemian rhapsody but you know loud queen songs i get it i understand you understand why people go to see it you can understand the reasoning black panther is obviously the most popular movie of this year really significant movie groundbreaking and you know vice is the political movie roma is the art house movie and the netflix movie the favorite is the surprise movie that's also a costume drama so your parents loved it um my parents my mom saw it i think she i think she enjoyed it one of the ones that was like wow didn't see this coming? In reference to the handjob scene? Yeah, yeah.

That's a tough one. Did you share with her that that was Taylor Swift's boyfriend? I mentioned it to her at dinner afterwards, which was one of the more awkward dinners I had had with my mom. Yeah. Anyway, it's weird that because of all this the black klansman is obviously also a relevant movie and spike so in this one a star is born is just like the adult drama yeah and adult drama is not doing super well right now in the landscape so i guess maybe it's just overlooked yeah i mean i think we we don't have, don't cry for us too much, Argentina. I mean, it did get a lot of nominations,

but I think you're almost like sensing an Oscar night empty cabinet for them almost. Is that right? Yeah, well, it'll win shallow. And I'm concerned it'll... Are they going to make that dude go up on stage and sing shallow, even though... I wonder whether he will.

He said that he would if it were nominated, but I bet he's feeling a bit saltier this morning. You know what? This is a good segue. Let's talk about specific snubs and surprises. Let's talk with Bradley Cooper in the directing category. Doesn't it say, is it the first title card in the trailer directed by Bradley Cooper? Yes. Yeah. I mean, that's what he was doing. He was directing. He has been nominated for everything else. He was nominated for the Golden Globe.

He was nominated for the DGAs. He was not nominated, nor should we say it was Peter Farrelly, which is significant. He was also nominated for Golden Globes and for the DGAs. And that suggests that maybe Green Book is not being taken quite as seriously

by certain corners of the Academy as it is other places, though famous last words, truly. So Pavel and Yorgos came through. Yes. Yeah. Hard to be mad about that. Yeah. I do.

I feel for Bradley Cooper. We've established that. We could just put that at the top of the podcast as a warning. Right. So he was still nominated for Best Actor. They were for best picture yeah the gaga's nominated yes and best adapted screenplay yeah so four of the big five but not the biggest the biggest of five while we're talking about director spike lee that was expected but that was nice um many years late yes but finally he's here so So that's great. All right.

Other surprises. Let's finish out with a nice Star is Born surprise. Yeah. Sam Elliott. Yeah. This is great. This is great.

He's fantastic in this movie. He often doesn't get to have such meaty, emotional moments in films. He's typically the guy who kind of comes in and utters a couple of truisms from out of the true West

and then wanders off. You know, he doesn't have like those like deeply emotional moments like he does with Cooper in this movie. So it's great to see him get recognized. I think that there's a small chance that he wins this. Over Mahershala.

Yes. I mean, Mahershala is obviously the favorite and please don't put money, please don't put money on anything that I say. I just wouldn't, I wouldn't sleep well at night. No, if you do, wait until I misinterpret gambling odds in a couple of minutes. Mahershala has won the Supporting Actor Award pretty much throughout the season. And as you know, Chris, he's on a certain HBO show right now. Where he is just absolutely crushing it. Yes, he's on True Detective.

Check out Chris's show about True Detective called The Flat Circle. Kate, tell me if I'm doing this right. Mahershala Ali, Investigate My Disappearance. Thanks. I'm trying to talk like the kids. This is a pro-Mahershala podcast. You want to do one more? Mahershala Ali, kill me in three different timelines.

Does that work? Nailed it. Right. So that was great. I do think it'll still be Mahershala, but Sam Elliott sneaking in here means that a lot of people were paying attention to him more than and other award shows and also they just they love to do a old guy respect award they really do with I don't mean to call Sam Elliott old older how about that I would say this is I'm gonna I'm gonna spring this question on yeah is best actor in a supporting role the dinner you want to go to? Oh, yeah. I mean, that's a pretty good one. That's a pretty good hang. That's Mahershala,

Adam Driver for Black Klansman, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, and Sam Rockwell. I'd like to hang out. Yeah, that's a pretty great dinner. I will say supporting actress yes also fantastic dinner Amy Adams Marina de Tavira Regina King Emma Stone Rachel Weisz oh yeah yeah

I mean in general I think the supporting categories are the the dinners that you want they're the good hangs absolutely but yeah these are my guys

right here though good hang could is the philosophy for supporting actor as much as actual performance it's like oh we like them that's why Sam Rockwell

I think has a shot. Yeah, you think two years in a row? I think it would be hard, but like Vice is the movie that we're just not talking about Vice really in any capacity. I mean, Bill was, I think,

a lock or it was definitely the favorite and now Rami Malek is starting to creep in there, I think. Man, I don't know know but like Vice was the movie that I think three months ago I was like man

when Vice comes out this is just gonna be this is gonna get all blown up and then we're gonna talk about Bush yeah a lot right yeah

it still hasn't quite happened you brought up best actor you ready let's do it should we should we pour one out for Ethan should we light some candles do any votives

yeah I was like is there some sort of like, you know... Should we play a Shoken Farewell? That's literally... Yes. Could we get that going under, Bobby? Ethan Hawke, you were too good for this awards season. We enjoyed your interviews.

This is a real... What happened? This is an oversight. I mean, you know, I thought when Paul Schrader was nominated for screenplay, which was not a given and did happen, that that meant, OK, Ethan Hawks didn't have it. And I think it was literally the next category. They announced best actor and Ethan Hawks, chances die. Also, Paul Schrader versus Ethan Hawks campaigning style, quite different.

And it's like it's an interesting contrast in like Paul Schrader goes out and he's like, I'd like to make a movie with Kevin Spacey. And Ethan Hawke is like, I'm the most adorable man of all time. And one gets nominated and the other doesn't. One of the greatest interviews of this year. And I mean, he just is very gifted. I guess I don't know what happened here. I will also say on Sunday night, I had a dream about Ethan Hawke and I was sure that I was Oscar clairvoyant. I was like, he's got this. No, no problem. It's Ethan Hawke. He was in my dream. He's going to be the nomination. So I'm not clairvoyant. Another reason to not put money on anything that I say. I guess it's too much of

a bummer. Well, I mean, that movie is a bummer, though. That is also the only reason that anyone's into it. I mean, the bummer is the draw. And First Reformed is an excellent movie. It's not my favorite movie of the year. I understand. It has a limited appeal. It's not everyone is going to jump into it, so I get it. But it is one of those classic, I don't know about the movie, but the performance was extraordinary. And Ethan Hawke is one of those classic actors. Actors, people love him. Without placing blame, it definitely seems like Willem Dafoe stole this nomination. Which is ironic because Willem Dafoe is a frequent collaborator with Paul Schrader. Yeah.

I don't, I guess it was just too early. I will say, First Reform's probably a tough screener. Sure. You know? To sit there, you pop it in, and you're just going to keep going. I doubt it really has the same effect. It is almost like a, I mean, not almost, in many ways a religious experience. Sure.

And you don't really create that atmosphere at all. You're standing up, you're sitting down, you're standing up, you're sitting down. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So maybe that, I don't know, it's a real shame. It's not what we wanted. Ethan Hawke, you'll always have the Oscar in our hearts. Some other notable exclusions i was disappointed that john david washington didn't make it in the mix i mean obviously

they're the best actor category is already shot in my opinion but you had spike and adam driver did make it in and black klansman made it for best picture and it made it for screenplay and then the black actor not making it. Not the best of those. You could make the argument of it's just too early, but it's also pretty early for Rami Malek. So while

that is obviously a much more acrobatic and look at me performance than John David Washington's, it is I think actor in a leading role typically starts to like recognize you once you've got like three or four movies under your belt, like four or five, like big important movies under your belt, but not always. I mean, I think like Daniel A. Lewis was pretty much right out of the gate after My Beautiful Laundrette. So

I don't know. One more kind of a bummer, No Beale Street in Best Picture. Regina King did make it into Best Supporting Actress. And I would say Best Picture. Regina King did make it into Best Supporting Actress, and I would say she's the favorite at this point. In Best Supporting? Yes. And no Barry Jenkins in Director, also disappointing. And Brian Tyree Henry was a disappointment. Yeah, that's true. We did a long shot surprises on the podcast last week, and I meant to say Brian Tyree Henry, and it remembered after the fact, but I guess it was such a long shot surprises on the podcast last week and I meant to say Brian and Tyree Henry and it remembered after the fact but I guess it was

such a long shot I couldn't even remember it and it did not come to pass which is a shame I think it was released a bit too late and it just not enough people saw it

but I think it's a real shame yeah when it comes to snubs I guess there's probably like there's the snubs and then there's like my personal grievances the ones that are

just a little bit on my my turf i'm pretty bummed out about the cinematography uh nominations which i know is pretty dorky but i would say i just didn't seem to ever look away uh which which got it which was nominated and that came in place of uh james laxton for uh beale street uh Street, Rachel Morrison for Black Panther, and Linus Sangren for First Man. First Man, which was fine, but maybe that is the biggest what happened here story of the entire awards season.

Yes, that's true, though. It happened in October. First Man has just been gone from the awards conversation, I think, since it was released. Not even a nod for my friend Claire Foy, which, you know what? It's fine. She'll be back. That's not even on my list of personal grievances because, frankly, she's too talented to just fly to L.A. to sit there and lose, in my opinion. But, yeah, no score, no cinematography. First Man just didn't happen.

I think it was released way too early. And the contrast between the way I think that we're traditionally told to think about heroism in space versus the way that movie projects it, I think was too great for people to sort of navigate. It's way closer to the right stuff, but even the right stuff had a lot more humor and a lot more like personality. Yes. It was like a real, quite literally a nuts and bolts movie. It was like, this is how you do this. And then you go fly around in circles and then you come back. It's a technical triumph. Yeah. And that's a technical triumph in October. I mean, good luck to you. Yeah. I do also think it came out a week after A Star is Born.

And to swing from A Star is Born to First Man in terms of energy, that requires a really big mental pivot that even I had a hard time with. Yeah. A lot of people have come around to First Man and saying the second time I saw it, it was really astonishing. But I think it was kind of too little too late. And I think October was just, it was out of it before people could even come around. Yeah.

The other big thing that was a personal grievance was Burning not getting nominated for Best Foreign Film. Yeah. That's a shame. It's one of my favorite movies of the year. It's a really stacked category. Yeah. Yeah. What about you?

Any personal grievances? Well, you know, I really liked the film Widows. I'm still mad. It's a Widows. I'm still mad. It's a great movie. I'm still mad that Widows just never made it into this Oscar conversation. Yeah. I don't really understand why. So many good female performances, lots of ideas, the cinematography.

Also, just making a genre film the best it can be is an art. And this does it. But, you know, it's basically fine i just can't believe that a star is born is just out of most conversations at this point i'm really i'm really shocked about that yeah that's all so do you think that the conversation that we're going to be happening for the next uh few weeks is going to be green book versus roma that that's the that's going to be the the sort of this versus this of this Oscars. Yeah, I do.

And this is a great segue, thank you so much, into segment two, which is Stock Up, Stock Down. If it goes bust, you can make 10 to 1, even 20 to 1 return. And it's already slowly going bust. We got to talk about Green Book. And we've already talked about it a bit. As I noted earlier on Saturday Night, Green Book won the PGAs, which has historically been a pretty solid predictor of best picture.

I believe eight out of the last 10 years, it's gotten it correct. Though in the last five years, it's not as reliable. I think it's three out of five. And that's if you count the fact that one year there was a tie. So it is predictive and it suggests that Green Book is rising. And certainly on Saturday night after Green Book won, there were many people who do this for a living who are like Green Book is now the favorite. I think it's certainly a contender. I think the nomination today, as I said, and especially fairly being excluded from the directors, is a sign that maybe it doesn't have quite as solid a case. Obviously, the voting body for the Academy is very different from the PGA's or the EGA. You know, it's everyone together.

It's a huge voting body. And then there is the question of the preferential ballot. A lot could go wrong. And then we haven't even talked about it. Can you give me the bullet points on the preferential ballot? Oh, boy. Let's see if I can get this right. So it's basically a ranking system.

And everyone's asked to rank from one to eight. And then the film with the lowest number of votes gets thrown out. And every single person who put that film as number one, the second film on their ballot goes up. Okay. And so the lowest vote getters are eliminated using the ranking system as ballots. So some wacky things can happen, right? Because unless there is 80% for, not 80%, but unless there is 50% for Roma or 50% for Vice,

there's not going to be 50% for Vice. Then it starts to be a little bit about... What's not the worst. What's not the worst or what people are willing to agree on, as opposed to what people's number one favorite is. So let me ask you this. Yeah. Is the fact that Green Book is a very divisive movie good or bad for Green Book?

Like, could Green Book be eight in a lot of people's ballots because they're just like, uh-uh? I think so. I think it will be an eight on some people's ballots. Right. And I think it will also be one on some people's ballots. The question is, how big are those groups? And I don't think that one is enough for a majority. And I don't know how many people are online enough for it to be an eight right now. So then it's a question of the middle. And are people going to value it more than they value Roma or A Star is Born?

I think there's a question of some, quote, issue voters, people who want to vote for a movie that's relevant. To make a point, right. And are they going to vote for, well, are they going to make a point about Hollywood or whether they think, you know, Pete Farrelly should be able to say whatever he wants all the time? Right. Or are they voting for something that feels relevant to like our political moment, quote unquote. And so the latter category could pick Green Book. I wouldn't recommend that.

Right. Or they could go for Vice or they could go for Black Klansman. I think that that could split a lot of different ways. I'm curious about how many people will go to eight. This question of who's online is going to be a relevant one because the, I don't even want to call it backlash. I just like the critical examination and discussion around Green Book continues and is not getting any better for Green Book at all. And in the way that all online conversations

get really ugly and people start retreating into their points of view and not wanting to hear the other side, that's also happening. So I think that it in some ways is strengthening the really, really hardcore Green Book voters. So the voting takes place starting February 12th. February 12th. Yes. And it goes on for a week. So it's January 22nd now. Yes. The only thing I'm kind of wondering. Yes.

After a couple of years of pretty intensely following political elections is, has Greenbook already bottomed out and could it have a little bit of like, you know what? It's not that bad. Well, I think. Like how much worse could it get for green book in terms of the court of public opinion that's true but so i think what's interesting is that the the latest wave of green books like hold my beer yeah i mean true yeah but the bad stuff the the articles about peter farrelly's behavior in the 90s, the just hateful Nick Vallelonga tweets,

those all were surfaced smack in the middle of nominations voting. I believe it was Wednesday of the week. And I believe that all of that happened before, certainly it happened after the Golden Globes. And I think partially because the Golden Globes kind of put Green Book back in the spotlight. But, you know, these voting this voting is rolling. So PGA is I honestly don't even know how much of it had caught up. And I don't quite think that it would have affected the PGA in the way that it might affect the Oscars. But maybe we've bottomed out in opinion, but I don't know

that we've bottomed out in how the opinion affects voting. Yeah. OK, I get what you're saying. Yeah. But you point out that you make a great point that there is a lot more time. Yeah. And a lot of things could happen. And I don't think it will be pleasant. That's the only thing I'm really sure about. Yeah. That's the, I mean, so right now I would say that that's the thing that I'm sort of fascinated about is what's the thing that we don't know? What's the thing that I'm sort of fascinated about is what's the thing that we don't know? What's the thing that we haven't seen coming yet?

What's the kind of, whether it's a full-on attack on Netflix's invasion of Hollywood and it's not fair, you know, because you're not asking people to make this elective choice to go to a movie theater. What does this mean for our business? Even though Coraline has been like, you should see this on a big screen,

it's still in theaters in certain places, although not widely available. And then a movie like Roma, which you'd hope is seen by the most amount of people possible, is possibly in the platform that allows it to be seen that way. So that goes back to what you were talking about at the beginning with this

old versus new Hollywood thing and furthermore it'll be interesting to see something like Green Book whether or not it can fend off the negative narratives that have been surrounding it and what they do to do that like do they put is Octavia Spencer just like

on the talk show circuit for the next two weeks just being like this movie matters you know it's not out of the movie matters, you know? It's not out of the realm of possibility. You know, I don't know whether you saw the Hollywood Reporter released a round table and featuring a bunch of actors. Viggo Mortensen was in it.

Now he's coming under fire for some of the comments that he included. The thing that is not in Green Book's favor is that very few people in that movie seem to know how to handle this at all. And they just kind of, with every spotlight, they keep stumbling into something. And they are not also engaging

with the actual criticisms of the movie. So I don't know. I think that it'll get messier before it gets better. But I do also think that Green Book is still in the running. I mean, it's the Oscars. I think we have to get messier before it gets better. But I do also think that Green Book is still in the running. I mean, it's the Oscars. I think we have to be as cynical as possible. And the cynical take on this is that somehow Green Book will find a way.

Yeah. So we'll see. I wanted to briefly talk about the lead actress category as well. Let's do it. So Yalitza Aparicio, Roma, was the happy surprise, as I said. Yeah, absolutely. I was psyched about that. Tremendous.

She's phenomenal. I'm thrilled to see her. I'm psyched about that. Tremendous. She's phenomenal. I'm thrilled to see her. I'm thrilled for her and I'm thrilled for what it means for Roma. Otherwise, this is chalk. This is what we expected. Olivia Colman for the favorite. Lady Gaga for A Star is Born. Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

And a woman named Glenn Close for a movie called The Wife. Chris, have you seen The Wife? I definitely have not seen The Wife. You have not seen The Wife. Straight up. I have still not called The Wife. Chris, have you seen The Wife? I definitely have not seen The Wife. You have not seen The Wife! Straight up. I have still not seen The Wife. I think I will. I know I said I felt really bad and I was going to see it. And then frankly, it's back in theaters. It's at the Arclight near our office. You can't kill The Wife. It's only on old people time. They're only showing it at 12. Why did they say, why did they call this movie You Can't Kill The Wife? Because then I definitely would see it. Glenn Close won this award at the Golden Globes you

think so even now yeah that was incredible speech she's just like that's like Dallas Buyers Club speech I think where you're like well that guy just won it if she's got her story she is magnanimous and there's something that Gaga's not in the club yet. No, Gaga's out of it. I wanted to talk to you. I don't disagree with you. And I think, as I said, I was really moved by the Golden Globes speech and feel guilty and like I'm betraying the sisterhood at this point for not having seen the wife. But I wanted to talk about Yulita Aparicio. And I also wanted to talk about Olivia Colman because we haven't really talked about the fact that the favorite, 10 nominations.

All three actresses, screenplay, director, best picture, cinematography, it's in the mix. Yeah. Does that signal anything to you about Olivia Colman's chances? Gosh, I hope so. I mean, she's really like, it's a great performance. It's a really, in a weird way,

the thing about the favorite performances that really is interesting is whether, how you determine what's supporting and what's lead. She is obviously the center of attention in this movie among Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone. They're both vying for her affection and good graces. But she comes away with best actress, even though I don't necessarily know that she's on screen for longer or that her role is any more outweighed. I would love to see her win.

In some ways, it would be the best of both worlds if she won. What do you think? I'm just trying to play through my head a situation where the favorite has 10 nominations and wins one, which I guess seems possible because it would just be screenplay and then home. I do wonder whether the fact that there was more attention paid to it and also that the Academy is dominated by actors, means that she has a shot, but it's probably just Glenn Close. Yeah, I think she is, we could talk about what the betting markets

are kind of suggesting right now, but Glenn Close is like as close to a lock as there is right now. Yeah. So let's do that. Let's talk. We will move on to the big race. Well, mama, look at me now.

I'm a star. Which in this case is best picture because in many ways, this is the only remaining toss up. It's certainly the most undecided at this point. Because as you noted, Glenn Close is the favorite. Will you do the actor betting markets really quickly before we move on? Yeah, sure. I mean, as Amanda knows, I have a reputation at The Ringer as a bit of a quant. You know, a lot of my stuff kind of comes from a statistical...

I usually use like a foundation of statistical information whenever I write and whenever I talk. That's really true. So I like to get into the betting markets and see, no, I don't really know anything about it. I barely understand odds. I was asking Bobby to explain them to me. But what I am interested in is what betting markets seem to know that we don't or their confidence.

And yesterday when we were talking a little bit, I looked and I saw that Roma, before the nominations, was way higher in the markets, was leading the markets in Best Picture, Coron, Best Director. And I was like, that's really interesting because Green Book seems to be walking this award season and it's still, Roma's numbers only went up. As far as Best Actress goes, Glenn Close is more or less got this wrapped up

with two white fans. She's got it. She is at two to five, which basically means that she has a 71% chance of winning, which is pretty high. Really high. Yeah. And I assume Christian Bale. Christian Bale is very, very high up there. But I think that Rami is like 50-50.

Yeah. I think it's closer to 50-50 for Rami and Christian Bale. And then Mahershala and Regina King, I assume. In the supporting categories. Yeah, Regina King is pretty much a lock. So let's go back to Best Picture just briefly. Yeah. So Roma's odds went up today.

Yes, they went up by 8% today. Okay, that makes sense according to our, you know, tea-leave reading of the nominations. What is the next favorite? The next favorite is Green Book, which went up from 22 to 26%. And Roma's that from went up, this is roughly, but went up from 44 to 52. So Roma was at 44. I mean, Roma is still almost leading Green Book by about 20% in the markets. And it will be interesting to see how that changes over the next couple of weeks.

I will say that Coron is going to win Best Yeah. He has a 93% chance of winning. He's at minus 1400. And that was the one that I was like, oh, he's going to, like, this is actually maybe going to be like a big, like, Roma wins six awards night. Right. And then we should historically say that Best Director

is a pretty close predictor of Best Picture. But in recent years, it has split as often as not. So I would agree with you that that would indicate a Roma win. But I also, you know, it's a month to go. We still have the SAG Awards, which are this weekend, the DGA Awards, the BAFTA Awards, and then voting begins. And it's interesting because the nominations are a bit all over the place. At the SAG Awards, neither Green Book nor Roma cast are up for Best Ensemble,

which is the SAG equivalent of the Best Picture. And then at the DGAs, you have Farrelly and Cooper in the mix, who are no longer nominated for Best Director, though it seems like that will be Coran as well. Though if Farrelly wins the DGAs... Then burn all your tickets. Yeah, I mean, who knows what's going on. And then the BAFTA Awards, which are British, so are slightly different, but

I have talked about this so much, but this concept of international voting bodies liking films that explain America. Sure. And seeing Green Book as a film that explains America. Or Vice. Yes. Black Klansman is also nominated for BAFTA, so it could be that.

Or, you know, they could go for the favorite because British people. Yeah, that's what I figured is almost like the BAFTAs would be the favorites victory lap. And then when they get to the Oscars, maybe Olivia Colman wins or maybe... Everybody always talks about canceling out, so it's hard to see

Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz getting in there at best supporting actress but that the BAFTAs would be kind of like let's all golf clap the favorite

which it definitely deserves yeah anyway I think the summary here is that we don't really know what's going to happen we think we know but we don't know

I would like to just be like I think Roma is going to just go gangbusters that night but I thought Hillary Clinton was going to be our president you know what I mean I don't mean to just be like, I think Roma is going to just go gangbusters that night. But I thought Hillary Clinton was going to be our president. You know what I mean? Like that's, I don't mean to be dark like that. I was going to say we were going to end on a happy note about Roma.

But for as much as we talk about like certainty and odds and just trying to lay out like, okay, well, this happens and then this happens, this happens. The last couple of years, both at the Oscars and in other world events have shown us that there's a lot of uncertainty that there's lots of different things can happen you're totally right yeah so we've got a month to go and uh we'll be back we'll be back next week chris thank you so much for joining my pleasure thank you everyone for listening Thank you.