The Big Picture - Oscar Predictions: Who Will and Should Win at the Academy Awards

Episode Date: March 9, 2023

Sean and Amanda dig into what to expect from the Academy Awards, including prop bets for the telecast and predictions for every category. Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Producer: Bobby Wagner Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hi, I'm Erica Ramirez, founder of Illy and host of What About Your Friends, a brand new show on the Ringer Podcast Network dedicated to the many lives of friendship and how it's portrayed in pop culture. Every Wednesday on the Ringer Dish Feed, I'll be talking with my best friend, Steven Othello, and your favorites from within the Ringer and beyond about friendships on TV and movies, pop culture, and our real lives. So join me every Wednesday on the Ringer Dish Feed, where we try to answer the question TLC asked back in the day. What about your friends? Get groceries delivered across the GTA from real Canadian superstore with PC

express shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC optimum points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. I'm Sean Fennessey. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about what to expect at the Academy Awards. We're just a few days away from the 95th ceremony,

and Amanda and I will be predicting every single category on this episode. All 22 categories. Is that how many we've got these days? And so if you're a gambler, maybe you'll want to listen to what we say and put some dollars down. If you're not a gambler, maybe you'll just want to win your pool with your friends in which no money changes hands.

Are you excited for the Academy Awards this Sunday? I am actually. I was listening to the town with matt bellamy on the ringer podcast network on the way in he has an interview with bill kramer who's the new academy ceo um janet yang is the new president and you know there was like a fair amount of oscar bullshit and also a lot of fun stuff and i I was like, oh yeah, I love the Oscars. I'm a weirdo and I'm psyched about the Oscars. It was a great podcast, by the way.

And I thought Bill Kramer handled all of the questions quite well. You know, he dodged where he needed to dodge and Matt, you know, followed up where he needed to follow up. But I give them both two thumbs up. So that interview and I think just the general aura around the show right now is that, is the Academy in a good place?

Are we about to have a good Oscars? There's been some pieces written about this. There's some anticipation. A bunch of movies that people have actually seen are competing on Sunday. Jimmy Kimmel's back. He's a safe pair of hands for this ceremony. Will this be a good show? It could be.

It could also run the disaster course that you texted me about after 10 p.m. last night. So I didn't text you again until this morning. Why don't we hold that? But you know what I mean? It could go really well or it could Oscar and then we're all in hell again. We're just like straight up in hell. Yeah. A special kind of hell.

Yeah. A think piece hell, I think you called it. Yes. We will get there. Before we get into our predictions, well, one I just want to say, we will be covering the Academy Awards. Sure will. On Sunday. We will get there. Before we get into our predictions, well, one, I just want to say we will be covering the Academy Awards on Sunday. We will be there. Bobby Wagner is here with us in studio. He's here this week. He'll be here with us for the ceremony as well. We're going to get that show out into the universe as quickly as possible. Before we get into the predictions, though, I want to talk about some prop bets. So you don't know what a prop bet is. Is that right? Okay. So at least when I texted this

question, Bobby earnestly responded and you just moved on without putting me on blast in public. I texted the two of you and I asked, what is a prop bet? And Bobby explained that it's just really like anything could happen. You know, like a bet about something that could or couldn't happen. Bobby, what is it? What did you say when Amanda asked this question? I said basically it's a bet on the outcome of anything that is not an award. Or like in a sporting event, it's the bet on the outcome of anything that is not the game. A prop.

Okay. For example, at the Super Bowl, there are a number of props. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal Iacono are famous for doing absurd prop bets ahead of the Super Bowl every year on Bill's show. And they'll say like, you know, who is the first person to score a touchdown? That's a prop bet. And you decide, well, maybe it'll be the fullback on the San Francisco Giants. And then that would be like, if you hit that bet, you'd make an extraordinary amount of money. Now, unfortunately, the betting apparatus around the Academy Awards is not quite as advanced as professional football here in these United States. So we came up with a few of our own, a few prop bets of our own. Are you spending all your

time working to change that? Are you trying to change the betting apparatus around the Oscars? Really just depends on how big this show can get. You know, if we can get to about 500 million listeners, I think we can shift the markets. Do you think we can get there? Do you feel confident enough in your picks for 500 million people to put money on them? I think there's only like 130 million podcast listeners in the world right now. So we got to really expand the globe. My goal is 500 million

and I will not stop until we reach that number. No, I think that we can slowly participate in moving this whole industry towards gambling, just as sports has completely moved towards gambling. I want to talk about a few specific things that we're used to seeing at the Academy Awards. But let's start with this. Over-unders are a significant part of the gambling world. Last year's telecast was 222 minutes.

It was very long. Now, the Oscars is always very long do you think that this year's show will be under 222 minutes or over that number so 222 minutes is three hours and 42 minutes that is some very good math did you know you don't need to be sarcastic okay i can do long division the only way we can get to 500 million is sarcasm. So just go with me on this journey. Did you notice

on The Town, during Matt Bellamy's interview with Bill Kramer, he was talking about trying to get young people to watch a three and a half hour show. Yeah.

And he had just internalized three and a half hours, which in some ways it's good to be honest. Like, let's be straightforward with the people. It's very hard to get this under three and a half hours. So really now ways it's good to be honest. Like, let's be straightforward with the people. It's very hard to get this under three and a half hours. So it really now is just a question of the extra 12 minutes.

They're adding the categories. They're presenting all the awards this year, which I think is good. Thank goodness. Because last year when they did it not live, but then edited them. And last year, aside from the slap, was one of the worst Oscars that I've ever seen because I wasn't alive in 1989. So I think they're doing it. They're smart to do the other way, but it's not saving time.

They're going to be doing montages. I believe there are four musical performances. Right. You saw Lady Gaga's not performing. Yeah, she's unavailable, but Rihanna is, so I'm fine. David Byrne's also performing. Thank goodness. I historically have absolutely loathed the musical performances, but this year I'm going to hold my tongue.

I think I'm, okay, 1142 Eastern is when it would be done. You're like Zach Galifianakis in the hangover meme right now. The numbers are floating around your head. I'm still going to go with under. Wow. But it might be like three minutes under. Guess what? I agree with you.

Yeah. I think we're going under. I think in part because Kimmel is doing this. Yes. And I think he knows how to navigate this show very well and he'll get us into and out of various segments. That being said, with him there, there may be more bits and we're going to get to that too. Next over under montages. Now, I love movie montages. You might wonder why does Sean like Babylon so much? The film concludes with

a montage of movies. Who doesn't love to see a movie montage? I don't think anyone is wondering why you like Babylon so much anymore. I think you've made it known. It's a good bit. So I'm putting the over-under at six.

Six would be a lot, I think. But there have been at least six montages in Oscars past. Can we drill down on what you mean? So montage, not part of a category presentation.

Correct. Like a freestanding, like we came back from commercial and now it's a montage of people jumping out of planes in cinema. Which, by the way, make that montage. Put that. I won't be mad. Well, that's the thing is like in 2005 or sometime, anytime in the last 50 years of the show, they'd be like, you know what's great is Westerns. Let's just show you all the Westerns for seven minutes. I love that.

I want more of that. I don't want a Westerns montage. That's like every day at the movies now anyway. And that's also- A rom-coms montage. Yeah, you know what? You don't have to say it like that, okay? If you want my interest

and you want me to like montages, why don't you show me something that I like, Sean? How many will there be, Amanda? I think I'm going to take the under on this as well. How many do you think it'll be? I mean, five? Okay. But I don't think it's going to be seven.

I don't think so either, but I don't know. Well. I feel like there's going to be a hard reset. Do we have like a length, like minimum? It could be 30 seconds. I know, but what about like 15 seconds? I think that would be not considered a montage. Okay.

It'd be hard to capture multiple images from multiple future films. You haven't been on TikTok, but... Wow, it's a very good point. And if they're trying to capture that audience, perhaps the montages are moving more quickly. Right, and they're live streaming on TikTok. They are live streaming a lot of things on TikTok.

And honestly, Everything Everywhere All At Once is a film that moves very quickly through its montages. Sure. So maybe to represent these changes in cinema, we'll see hundreds of montages in 15-second form. That would be really exciting for me.

I would absolutely hate that. Let me say one other thing because I believe they're not quite live casting on Facebook and TikTok, but pretty close. The speeches will be up very quickly on Facebook and TikTok afterwards, which I think honestly is a good idea in the sense of at least getting the speeches in front

of people where they watch them, whether that helps your television ratings and thus your financial incentives long term is a different complicated conversation that has to do with how social media has ruined our lives. But what happened to Instagram? Like, Can you help an old person out? A medium old person in me? Because you mean TikTok just took its lunch? No, I mean, I understand that TikTok took its lunch, but they're doing Facebook too for the super olds. It's like, I am just a 38-year-old woman who needs to shop for some flats and also- Wow, you're 38? Yeah. Wow. Is that- I'm just like a 38 year old woman who needs to shop for some like flats. Wow, you're 38? Yeah.

Wow. Is that? I'm trying to give you content right now. You want to get to 500 million people. You got to let me go on a little bit of a rant about just like, please don't forget Instagram. Like meet the middle aged women where they are. I'm going the other way.

I want it on Letterboxd. That's where I want to be able to watch the show. They're also doing a Letterboxd, and I have a bet ready for you for later on. Okay. I think you're taking the unders right on the montages. Yes. Over under seven references throughout the telecast of the Will Smith, Chris Rock slap moment from last year.

Does this include acceptance speeches? Yes. Everything. Any single reference. Not just jokes that Jimmy Kimmel might make. Okay. I feel like some acceptance speeches... Well, I don't know. I'm still going to go under. I think it might be like five or six. I'm taking the over. You are? You think nine or ten? I hope it's not. We got to move on. I have to be honest. chris rock special

that it didn't totally work for me i thought it was fascinating because that he is just mad he's like humiliated and like angry on maine that which is like really interesting that is exactly why it worked for me i was like this is truly authentic he is still yeah he's so unprocessed yeah so you're right i think it's interesting like, that was enough for me. I don't, like, need more of it in, like, jokey process form on the telecast. Just my take. Would this have been a better or worse show if Chris Rock had hosted? Maybe worse, honestly, because it would be mired in it.

And, like, even his special was what, like five minutes at the end? Well, I thought that that was a very clever construction to make us wait. But three and a half hours of it, you know,

back and forth is like a lot. Plus, like, I don't know. I didn't think his observations on Meghan Markle were the freshest. You know what I'm saying?

Yeah. I thought it was a really mixed bag as a special. There were a couple of things that spoke to his extraordinary wealth and success and child rearing that I thought were fascinating and kind of funny yes um and I I enjoyed seeing him unleashed in pain on the Will Smith stuff even if it wasn't his sharpest material drums please ringing in his head was very funny though that was funny He, that's a whole other podcast. Yeah.

My feelings largely mirrored Chris Ryan and Andy Greenwald's on the watch, which is to say, Chris Rock is a big part of my cultural life. I love him. I'm always going to love

watching him do comedy. He's not, he's past his prime. I say that with respect. That's, you know, so are we. But we never,

we don't see people that upset, that are that famous, that are getting paid that much money to do something. You know, that is so rare. No, it fascinating and then and that he screws up the

joke because he's so it's a honestly sort of like the slap is like a fascinating like cultural like moment and insight about like celebrity and masculinity and like anger but i don't want it for three and a half hours like that I didn't want to live in that vibe for the length of an Oscars telecast, if you will. So that's why I say that it's better that he's not hosting. I think I might actually change my vote to specifically we'll hit seven references. So it'll be a push on this bet. I didn't know that was an option. Well, you're learning so much about gambling. I hope I haven't sent you down a rabbit hole. You got to make sure you save for your son. Just don't make any big mistakes with gambling. Like go slow. Thank you.

Thanks for that advice. Okay. Next over under 20 million viewers for this telecast. Now last year, the show was up to 16 million viewers. How are you counting? Are we doing your Hulu plus seven or whatever? Um, I don't, however, the Academy reports on Monday afternoon, which is something that I'm sure we will talk about. Joanna Robinson will join us on Tuesday. We'll do a big aftermath conversation about the show, about where the Oscars are at. Okay. So when we're recording that show, what is the number we will have in our hands? Under. Under 20 million. Okay. Will it be under 16 million? No. So it'll split the difference between those two. Yeah, I think so. Gosh.

Well, this is something I promised myself I wouldn't care about anymore. Right. And you're clenched up. The nostrils are clearing. It's like intense Sean fantasy. I'm upset, but I'm hiding it body language, except I'm not hiding it. Yeah. Well, I'm going to say it's over because I want to believe.

Okay. 20.2 million viewers. But that's just for the TV telecast. I think many people will watch all of the speeches and the moments and, like, will talk about it. I think it will have cultural awareness and significance. And definitely more than the last couple years because of the films nominated and because of the way they're rolling all this stuff out like i was bitching about tiktok over instagram but like i think that's a smart idea and i think that that like meets people where they are does that make money for the academy no so that's tough cr told me he'll be watching it on pirate bay do you think

that will be counted against the uh the total ratings'm not sure. Okay, you added this one, and I think it's a good one. Yeah. Over, under five references to the Academy Museum, which is, of course, you know, one of the biggest projects the Academy has ever undertaken. I went to the Academy Museum a few weeks ago and had the time of my life. I'm really jealous. I'd like to go. I put this in a little bit tongue-in-cheek because they have used this as a commercial for the construction it's like a fundraising vehicle in years past and i like i have seen does a commercial about the academy museum count as a montage absolutely okay well now maybe i should do the over on six montages but it's too late wait it counts as a montage oh does it count as a montage i think

you meant a reference no no it doesn't count as a montage? Yeah. I thought you meant a reference. No, no, it doesn't count as a montage. Yeah, yeah, okay, right. Well, anyway, I've seen a lot of commercials during the Oscars produced by the Academy for the museum. Now it's open. It's apparently doing very well. You liked it. I'd like to go. Bobby, there's a Casablanca exhibit.

If it weren't raining tomorrow, I would be like, should we play hooky and, like, go to— But you can't go to the exhibit until you've seen the movie. Should I just watch the movie in the morning and then go to the exhibit in the afternoon? No, you can't go to the exhibit until you've seen the movie. Should I just watch the movie in the morning and then go to the exhibit in the afternoon? No, you can't watch it at like 9 a.m. That's. Should I watch it tonight? Yeah.

I mean, are you not going out tonight? I am going out tonight. I'm going to dinner with Craig and Kaya. That's great. My pod people. That's very sweet. Like you need to have a vibe. We're just talking about my plans now.

Okay. Well, we're making you watch it in april for a movie swap so don't watch it until we get closer to that episode i'm excited to watch you guys make it sound like it's against my will i want to watch it saying off mic that you don't want to watch it and that you hate movie history and any film made in the 40s is despicable to you um i think under but only four references to the museum that's That's kind of what I think also. This is how Vegas sets these lines, right? They hear these conversations and the experts out in the world,

they start talking and they start making wagers and the lines move and they shift. So you and I are kind of like, we are both the sharps and the betting line adjusters. So this is a tricky podcast we're making here. Amanda went sharp though on you though, because going under on everything is like a thing that professional bettors do. It is a move. Oh, really?

Because people want something to happen. And so more people bet the over because they're like, this will happen. I want it to happen. And they root with their heart rather than their minds. So that was a professional masterclass. I think maybe you were sandbagging it about not knowing anything about prop bets.

Let's move away from over-unders. A few more outstanding bets. Will Tom Cruise be sitting in the first row of the Academy Awards? Yes. Do you think that he would agree to go if he were seated in the second or third row? I'm concerned that he doesn't want to be in the first row because if he's in the first row, now obviously when you're in the front row, you are kind of the mayor of that Academy Awards ceremony.

You're Jack Nicholson. You're Brad Pitt. Those are folks we've seen in the front. Meryl Streep. These people have're in the front row, you are kind of the mayor of that Academy Award ceremony. Yeah. You're Jack Nicholson. You're Brad Pitt. Those are folks we've seen in the front. Meryl Streep. These people have appeared in the front row. There are often a lot of jokes at their expense and or references to the power of their fame. Now, the latter would be appealing to Tom Cruise.

The former, I'm not so sure. And Jimmy Kimmel is a friendly face for Tom Cruise. So I don't think that we're going to get anything untoward, perhaps in the way that we did at the Golden Globes. Right. But I don't know. Like an open stage, you never know what's going to happen. There's a loose environment sometimes at the Oscars.

Someone during their acceptance speech could say something out of nowhere. It's a risk. I don't think that the risk diminishes if he's in the third row. I think once Tom Cruise walks into the room, he's Tom Cruise. Can i think once tom crows tom cruise walks into the room he's tom cruise can i just can i take another detour right now i'd like to talk with you about the rewatchables uh specifically the country this is gonna be a long podcast you want to do like is this about like the entirety of the rewatch you know you said start recording and we'll work it out in the pod so so here we are sean um you and chris and bill

on the catch me if you can podcast um had something of a standoff about tom hanks versus tom cruise and when you say standoff you mean i murdered bill dead on that podcast with the temerity of my takes i got i gotta say you made the case and i think that you won but i do think that you need to publicly apologize to Tom Hanks. You were just like kind of disrespectful

in a way that is unnecessary for one of our great movie stars. I think I think you're right. I think I was out of line.

It reminds me of the aftermath of many disagreements I've had with my wife which is to say that I don't fight fair. I fight with a severity

that is unreasonable and it's not fun to get into don't fight fair. I fight with a severity that is unreasonable. And it's not fun to get into an argument with me. I think a lot of people disagreed with me, ultimately, and many people, because I think that there was a lack of clarity around the argument, which was, if you have not heard this podcast, who is the GOAT?

Bill referred to Tom Hanks as the GOAT. And he didn't say the greatest actor of all time. I just thought he meant the greatest of all time. And to me, it's like, as far as movie stars and actors, and we weren't even really talking about figures from the 50s or the 60s

or the 30s. We were kind of talking about the contemporary times of the rewatches. You know, like the films that we focus on. Which is also kind of

the starting reference point for this podcast because of our generation. Yes. And so like, as soon as he said that, I was like, well,

I care about Tom Cruise a lot more right now than I care about Tom Hanks in terms of the work that they're doing. Tom Hanks was in Elvis. Tom Cruise was in Top Gun Maverick. Right. I mean, that's not historically minded. It's not, but I think that Tom Cruise's 90s, with the exception of the Academy Awards argument, is even with Tom Hanks's. And some people might disagree with that, but Tom Cruise worked with, you know, innovative auteurs. He also made incredibly enjoyable popcorn movies. He was nominated for three Academy Awards.

He probably should have won two of those Academy Awards, etc., etc. So I was bucking hard for Cruise and probably disrespecting Hanks in the face of that. I love Tom Hanks. Here's the thing. It's possible that we were both deeply wrong. And I've thought about this quite a bit. And it's possible that it's Leo and then denzel and then cruise and then hanks i think leo starts the new generation i like i i think we gotta do micro generations at this point and i sort of think denzel trumps

both tom both toms if you want to do like a like and do everything both in terms of acting and the movie stardom and the CV. And Denzel does the Iceman Cometh on stage. He has another gear there that those guys don't have. I mean, it's just like different. They're different guys. They're doing different things. And I know what Bill was referencing when he kept talking about the Jimmy Stewart

and this kind of like you know great American like the everyman movie star guy sure I also agree that Tom Cruise

could not have done Big and that that's a very special performance sure Tom Hanks could not have done Top Gun Maverick that's really true I just

that's what I have to say is that you were rude to Tom Hanks I'm sorry to Tom Hanks who I love and will always love yeah let me see if I've got this right so you said Austin Butler won then Tom Hanks. I'm sorry to Tom Hanks, who I love and will always love. Yeah. Let me see if I've got this right.

So, you said Austin Butler won. Then Tom Hanks. Then Tom Cruise. Is that correct? We're going to come back to that. Don't worry. As long as we're talking about the rewatchables, can I just say I wouldn't kill either of you in The Purge just to clear up any confusion there? Also, Chris being like, I'm taking an Ambien and sleeping through The Purge.

Like, no, everyone, no, you're not. Like, you're just, you're staying alert while your wife is definitely purging. I love Phoebe. She, like, she would be. But, like, no, you're not. Like, you're just, you're staying alert while your wife is definitely purging. I love Phoebe. She, like, she would be. But, like, no sleeping. I wouldn't kill you guys either. I, like, I liked Craig's idea of the, like, the air as a safe zone, you know, just being on a flight. Craig's always looking for a creative answer to a solution that, to a problem that everybody needs a solution to.

Progress will be sitting in the front row. Okay. Great answer. We veer directly off into the unpublished podcast that we make here, which is reviews of podcasts we already make here.

That's a show we should consider putting out into the world in the future. Another prop bet. Yeah. Good one from you. Video sketches featuring Kimmel and or famous people

in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Avatar the Way of Water, and Elvis, among other films that are featured at this year's telecast. Right. So. But I think those three specifically. So this is something we've seen. Yes. Many times in the past, going back to the Billy Crystal days.

And also Jimmy Kimmel's like kind of Oscars I'm hosting announcement was a video sketch of him doing Top Gun Maverick. And it's the scene where Tom Cruise goes in and meets Jon Hamm and Charles Parnell, except that it was Kimmel playing the Maverick character. And it was Jon Hamm and Charles Parnell. And I thought it was really charming. I loved it. Again, I love Top Gun Maverick.

I liked it too. I am mortified by the idea of Navi Kimmel. Well, I said and or famous people. Also, you can imagine him just being himself, like trying to talk to the whale, you know? And him just being like, how do I get out of here? You know? And like, what about the tree?

And just like making like water jokes. Do you think the word Tulcun will be enunciated on the telecast that's too bad that's is big jim gonna be there i don't know i i mean he likes promoting his movies he was snubbed in director but he might show up for the others the other awards i don't know he's. I hope he's there. He produced Avatar the Waywarder. He's nominated for Best Picture. It would make sense. You know, it's probably going to win at least one award,

which we'll get to. Okay. I think there will be, I think we will have sketches like this. The last prop bet before we get to our proper predictions for every category. Why don't you read this?

This is your idea. So as previously mentioned, the Academy has started a partnership with letterboxd which they're very excited about and i'm not really sure the particulars of this partnership other than i do believe that there will be screenshots of letterboxd on the telecast in some embarrassing way at some point we'll cut to commercial and be like and now look what our favorite users on letterboxd are saying about, you know, whatever. And so I guess that's a better whatever, but I am putting money like on the line. Okay. And if somehow there is a screenshot of Sean Fennessey's Letterboxd account on the Oscars

telecast, I will donate $500 to the charity of your choosing. My only response to this is that is a pitifully low number. I know. You need to step up your financial commitment to my greatness appearing on the Oscars telecast. I need like 5,000, 50,000. Like, get those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers. The problem is that I put this in the doc like 20 minutes ago. I thought of it this morning while I was getting ready and I didn't have time to secure like the Spotify backing you know like a match

situation where if I donate this much then Spotify will donate this much and then I was like I wonder if I could just expense it um but I like I think that that would get in trouble in some different ways So this is what I was willing to commit off the you know The thing is is like this could happen and I know you like and it would be good for charity But also I think it would be like the most hilarious embarrassing thing that's ever happened to you So no, it would be incredible because it would confirm my status as a power user of the most superior Social media, I would feel amazing because it goes to a good cause and also like lull to you forever. Like forever. That would be the funniest thing.

I have no shame. If you like want to call it in, like if this is like, if there's a fix to be done here, I'm all for it. You know? Let's fast forward about 46 years from now. I'm on my deathbed. Okay place to start okay i've made it to 86 and i'm really excited about that yeah that would be a huge achievement for the fantasy clan uh i'm thinking back on my life sure my family is surrounding me you know my child my grandchildren we're reflecting on a life lived, everything I've accomplished.

And in my final moments, those final moments before the light strikes, I say to myself, my Letterboxd account appeared in the 95th Academy Awards. And I feel fulfilled. And then dawn rises and I ascend. Okay, that's beautiful. Wouldn't that be a win? That'd be a big W. Okay. Do I have to do a live pod after that

well you guys are there recording my final moments publishing to the since shuttered big picture feed that's right we have to revive it somehow that'll be the only revivification happening on that day okay uh. This isn't going to happen, but that'd be sick. Okay. Should we predict some awards? I'm good for it. You're good for 500 bucks? Thanks a lot. Appreciate that.

We're talking about the greatest moment of my life. I just talked about the end of my corporeal reality. I don't care that much that I want to do 1,000 bucks. You spend $500 on books every week. What are you talking about?

No, I don't. God damn it. I'm cutting back. I have to be fiscally responsible. You said I got to save for my child. Can you cut this part out of the show? Like leave it in the show, but carve it out and send it to me in a file

so that I can give it to Knox on his 13th birthday and be like, this is what your mother thinks of me. Put it in a time capsule. She thinks I'm worth 500 bucks. My pure happiness, my uncut happiness is worth $500. Just shameful. The charity of my choosing

is you becoming a lifetime member of Letterboxd. That's the other thing. That is not, it actually needs to do someone besides you some good. Okay. No, it's for the film community of which you are a part. All right.

Okay. We'll discuss. Okay. That concludes our prop bet the film community. No. Of which you are a part. All right. Okay. We'll discuss. Okay. That concludes our prop bet segment, which was a huge success. Thanks to everyone for participating in that. I hope you guys make a lot of money with those wagers. Let's make some actual predictions now. Okay.

So we're going to go through every category. We're going to read the nominees from every category. We haven't done this as deeply this season, and I frankly feel fine about that. You mean talk about the Oscars we'll just talk about like every category and the nuts and bolts of it although it has been it is an exciting season I think that there is an unpredictability you and I I'll I'll preface this by saying we've matched on a lot of our predictions here because some of these are deeply predictable but there is this lingering sense of maybe something wild will happen in a couple of the

big categories. So I think this will be a little chalky at the outset, and then we'll get into some divergence towards the end. On some of the categories, it's uncertain. And on some of the categories, it seems so obvious that I'm like, is it really going to go this way? Because there are always one or two surprises. And as a prognosticator, a person who makes predictions every year, which is not what I thought I would be when I grow up, it's hard to find the surprises.

So you're probably safer strategically picking what you think is going to happen. And if you miss one or two, you miss one or two. But I don't feel like I'm going to go 23 for 23 or whatever what what did you think you were gonna be when you grew up what did i think i was gonna be i mean there was a ballerina phase for sure oh cool you know what says now and then wait until our kids are at ballet class you know and you're just gonna be front row cheering as they just like sit there and do one plie and then like look into the rafters like confused. I'm not mocking you.

I love to dance. No, you don't. I don't love to dance, but I love dance. As do I. I really, I can't wait for. Okay. So ballerina, then what? You never, never in your life did you think I will be a profound Oscar prognosticator?

No, but have I not told you the story about like when I was three or four? you never never in your life did you think i will be a profound oscar prognosticator no but have i not told you the story about like when i was three or four i swear i've told this on the podcast but you know when you're little and you go to preschool and they like make you fill out those little questions you know it's like my favorite color is whatever and something blah why are we withholding that information what is your favorite color i guess right now it's blue i don't know it's not really particularly deep. What's an interesting, what's your favorite color? Chartreuse.

Okay. Wow. Congratulations. Anyway, so the teacher's filling this out for me. And then on the card, it says, when I grow up, I want to be. And they wrote in my dictation, which was, I am a lawyer. Facts. Facts. So there we are.

Facts only. That's a true thing. Yeah. It's funny because when I filled that out when I was three years old, I wrote in, I am a tool-kun. And they were like, well, I don't know what that is, sir. And I was like, just you wait. Yeah. 40 years from now, Big Jim's going to come through.

Yeah. Okay, let's get into this. Best documentary short subject. We're going to start with the short films. I ask this every year. Should they be doing the shorts at the Oscars at this point? No, it should be a special award. It can be Oscars, but the way that they do the humanitarian awards,

and maybe they should bring the humanitarian awards back to the ceremony. But the shorts, it's a different thing. Cool. I get why they want to reward reward them the future of, you know, filmmaking or whatever, but it's, it's a separate situation. Okay. So I'll read the nominees and we'll talk about who we think will win and who should win. So best documentary short subject, the nominees are the elephant whispers. How do you measure a year? The Martha Mitchell effect and stranger at the gate now this is the only category of the shorts categories in which i was able to see all five films unfortunately i was not able

to see a couple of films i think that's true for you as well but so our pick here is clear uh so we'll win i'm going the elephant whisperers as am i should win we also matched how loose so the elephant whispers is available on netflix right now if anybody wants to check it out it's about um uh sort of like a family a tribe that have a sort of special relationship with elephants they sort of train them they uh live amongst them they shepherd them into the world um young elephants and large elephants very well made film incredibly intimate um nature documentary effectively sort of but also family documentary because it follows one couple who raise two orphaned elephants and they form like a like lovely connection to them i mean i'm not gonna i picked this because it's feel good and

also it has netflix money behind it yes um but you know when they're like hugging the elephants i mean i'm not a monster, these cute baby elephants. And one of the elephants has to go away for a little while. And then they're very sad because he's like an adolescent and he needs special care or something. And it's very upset. They're all upset. They miss him. Let me see.

I'm just checking my notes here. It says you're not a monster. Is that, is that right? No, she's a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. Yeah. And it was, it was a nice one,

but Halut is basically the lighthouse, but with walruses. So it's just like, it's a peak Sean movie. And it's done in a cool way where they don't give you any of the exposition or the facts until the end, but it's like, it's like very obvious. And so you any of the exposition or the facts until the end but it's like it's like

very obvious and so you both get the nature documentary but you're also piecing together why this is happening and the personal connection and the climate connection uh it was it was sad yeah i think the elephant whispers is a sort of like a conservationist film and how loot is sort of a climate change film and they're both related to wildlife and um how wildlife survives and thrives in its environment and how loot is just more tragic honestly but beautiful and unlike anything you've ever seen before and is worth checking out um that film is like many of the films here it is sort of produced and hosted by the new yorker the new yorker has a huge influence on the shorts categories this year.

They appear in every category. Most of the films that they produced are available on YouTube right now. It's kind of remarkable what they're doing in the shorts space. I guess The New Yorker wants an Oscar, which seems cool. And I'm a big fan of The New Yorker as a publication,

though I wish I could get, I still follow The New Yorker on Twitter, but I can't subscribe or I can't log in via Twitter no matter how many times I try, and it's very frustrating, and I'm just like, could you fix it because I'm paying you? Whatever. They're probably not going to want to ask her

because Cunning Ass does not seem to have the marketing budget that, say, Netflix does. We shall see. Maybe. You know, I don't think that they're going to and for a very specific reason, but it'll be interesting to see if that is undermined and what that means for the shorts categories.

And when we finish talking about them, we can talk about how they're being dominated by very specific companies right now. So let's go on to Best Live Action Short Film. The nominees are in Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Les Poupilles, Night Ride, and The Red Suitcase.

So... Will win, should win across the board. We both have Les Poupilles, which I freaking loved. Yeah, so this is from Alice Rohrwacher, who is a widely celebrated filmmaker, and it's produced by Alfonso Cuaron.

Right. And streaming on Disney+. And streaming on Disney+, and Hulu. Yeah, and so it's got money behind it. You want to talk about what this film is about? You loved it.

Sure. I wish that I had seen it before we did Alternative Oscars because I would have put the kids in for a special ensemble kids cast. So it's set at a convent school slash orphanage in Italy during World War II, I believe, right? That sounds right. Yeah. Around that time, period piece. And it's Christmas Day and the children are gifted a cake. And then it's like whether or not they get to eat the cake.

And that really sounds like very simple and it sort of is, but it's funny and it's sad. And there's some like woman who like shows up to ask the little angels to like pray for her relationship. And they're like hanging around. I don't know. It's really weird and whimsical and affecting and stylistically interesting. Like the kids like sing to camera. I don't know. Inventive. I was charmed by it. I don't know. Inventive.

I was charmed by it. It's very charming. It's beautifully well made. Roar Walker is an Italian filmmaker as well and she made Happy as Lazaro seven or eight years ago which was a very acclaimed film

that appeared on Netflix. And it's interesting to watch a filmmaker like that make a short after getting deep into their feature filmmaking career. I actually don't know enough about why this film happened because the sort of commercial prospects of a short film

are not very big historically, but nevertheless, there's so much talent behind this movie despite, you know, I thought a couple of these films were very good. This one feels like a no-brainer. It feels like every single pundit is predicting that this film will win. So then, as you said,

that's available on Disney Plus and Hulu. Let's go to Best Animated Short Film. The nominees for that are The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse, The Flying Sailor, Ice Merchants, My Year of Dicks, and An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It.

So, you love animation, so you must have been very excited to dive deep into this category. I watched four out of the five. An ostrich told me the world is fake, and I think I believe it. It was not available on streaming, as best I could tell.

I did find it on Vimeo, but it may have no longer been available to you. You could have sent the link. I'm sorry, you did not ask me for it. Many of these films are available. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse I think is the odds-on favorite for both of us. This film

is available on Apple TV+. It's produced by Bad Robot. It's been like the first thing suggested on my Apple TV for three months now. Yes. I watched this with my daughter. Oh, that's cute. And she loved it. Aw. Which is great. She watched the entire thing. Really? Yes. Sat. And she loved it. Aw. Which is great. She watched the entire thing. Really?

Yes. Sat quietly through the whole film. Wow. And I don't know if that's a sign that it's going to win, but it's a sign that it's very present in the world, probably of a lot of the voters. And there's just a lot of money behind this movie as well, and it's based on a beloved children's book. So it feels like kind of a no-brainer. The four other nominees are much more transgressive or unusually creative executions.

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse is a much more traditional kind of 2D animation story. It's about 30 minutes long. I thought that The Flying Sailor and Ice Merchants, which were both produced by The New Yorker, were like fascinating experiments in animation and are shorter and are much more compact in terms of the storytelling, even if they're like much more expensive in their ideas.

My Year of Dicks is my should win, which is just like a profoundly strange nominee. Like, I don't know how this got across the line, but because it's as far from the boy, the mole, the fox and the horse as you can possibly get. But, you know, it's a very personal the boy, the mole, the fox, and the horse as you can possibly get. But it, you know, it's a very personal, it felt very Richard Linklater to me. This is sort of

deeply personal story about a young woman, like essentially having like a sexual awakening over time. And there's various animation styles that are used,

you know, her voice and her persona kind of changes as the story goes on. I thought it was really interesting. I think it has like a 0% chance of winning because it's going to turn off a lot of people but i thought it was

really good um i did see an ostrich told me the world is fake and i believe it and it was it was like if how did i describe this it was it was a meta stop motion animation movie so like you can literally see the animators hands in front of the camera as they're moving the pieces. And then the animated figures have an awareness of the fact that they are being animated, which is a little heady. Is up my alley. I enjoyed it. It probably is my second favorite of the bunch. What do you think should win?

I also picked my Eurodicks because you just got to pick like the slightly punk rock like female centered I'm trying to lose my virginity and five chapters weirdo story it's it's just like it it would be cool if animation were used for more things like this as opposed to the boy the mole the fox and the horse which like I'm really glad Alice I love Alice I want nothing more than Alice be happy but like I thought this sucked um second favorite for me was Ice merchants which i was very moved by ice merchants was very cool um that was the one about the father and the son living on the mountain yeah that was very beautiful right um i i i think it's the apple tv plus thing all the way down i think that this feels like an unusually predictable set of shorts which leads me to believe that

we're gonna get all three of them wrong uh All three of the picks that we've made for should or will win are available on Netflix, Disney Plus, and Apple TV Plus. Yeah. I wonder if that matters or not. I think it does. I would encourage people, if you haven't listened to our conversation with Van Lathan about Avatar, The Way of Water and Triangle of Sadness, but also about the Oscars and his experience winning an Oscar for a live short. But about that process.

And he was talking about it in the context of his reaction to this nominee is this year's nominees and the lack of black nominees and the way this system works and doesn't work. And I thought that was valuable insight, but he was like, this is, you get this person to sponsor this and this person to sponsor that. And we know that that's true for all the categories, but especially for shorts, which don't have a lot of outside awareness, you know,

it's most people are just sitting at home, click and play and then click and vote. So money helps. Yeah. Money click and vote. Money helps. Yeah. Money helps create awareness. Money helps get these films in front of people. And money helps when you've got something that is visible to a wider audience. So, okay, let's move on out of the shorts and into the feature film categories.

First category, we're going to talk about Best Costume Design. The nominees are Mary Zofres for Babylon, Ruth Carter for Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Katherine Martin for Elvis, Shirley Carada for Everything Everywhere All at Once, and the great Jenny Bevan for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. Pretty loaded category nominees-wise. We both have the same pick for Will Win, which is Elvis. Yes. And we have the same pick for Should Win, which is what? Black Panther, Wakanda Forever. Specifically, Ruth Carter. Ruth Carter did win in this category a few years back for Black Panther.

I think between the Talakon and Namor and that entire other world they built, in addition to having to basically invent new costumes for Angela Bassett's character, for Letitia Wright's character, especially with Chadwick Boseman's passing. She's been one of the best costume designers in Hollywood for going on 25 years now. How do you feel about the fact that it feels strongly tipped

towards Elvis? Just acceptance, I guess. I mean, it's amazing that Ruth Carter won for the original Black Panther. And I don't think it spoils the next category to say that I kind of think that Black Panther Wakanda Forever should sweep these the costuming, makeup, hairstyling, like all of these ideas of presentation, because, you know, it's a total act of imagination of like bringing this whole world to life. And it is so like vibrant and well thought out. And to me, the part of the movie that works the best is just like how great it looks and how cool every one looks. Everything that's real. Yes.

And it also incorporates both references to modern fashion and the way that we all dress and look now, but, you know, updates it or twists it for the fact that this is Wakanda, which is not quite a real place. So I just think imagination trumps faithful recreation. But historically, all these awards go to faithful recreation especially period pieces because it is really hard and to make something look like the 50s or the 60s or the 30s or you know whenever um is and and to have and also to recreate like people who are so visually known as in the case of Elvis like it you know you got to get it just right and if you get it wrong it can look like an SNL sketch or it can just, it cannot work.

So it's a major part of the success of the movies. Plus, a lot of voters really do like Elvis. So I think this is where you'll see. Don't look at me. Look in your own heart. No, I think everything

that you said is very insightful. And it's not the last time we will talk about the complexity of recreation versus imagination. And I think you put that well. Whether this is a place to reward Elvis, because it won't be rewarding it elsewhere or not, is interesting. You know, most Baz Luhrmann films perform very well in these below-the-line categories. He is well known for extraordinary production design and costuming and hair, um, makeup and hairstyling. And so it's not shocking. I mean, this is a, this is a powerhouse category, you know, Mary Zofres' work for Babylon. I just, you know, saw that movie again and she spoke after the presentation of the screening and like

the amount of work that went into the costuming for that movie is also extraordinary. I mean, you know, Jenny Bevins, that's probably the kind of lowest temperature of all the films. The Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. But everything Leslie Manville wears in that film is part of the story, really. You know, doing fashion as fashion in movies can go very, very wrong. I would say it went like medium okay. In the half of the movie that I saw and then I turned it off. You know, Roger Deakins is also being recognized this year.

And Jenny Bevan and Roger Deakins being recognized for films that don't have a lot of support otherwise is one of those things where there is a kind of legacy aspect too. Okay. So, you know, not to spoil best makeup and hairstyling, but I'll read the nominees. Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerova for All Quiet on the Western Front. Naomi Dawn and Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine for The Batman, Camille Friend and Joel Harlow for Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti for Elvis, Adrienne Marat, Judy Chin and Anne-Marie Bradley for The Whale.

Now, many months ago, I thought this was all locked up for The Whale. And I think if this goes for The Wh whale, that's a big indicator of something. It is. Now, despite that, I'm still splitting this between a certain category that's coming up next. And I'm saying that Elvis is going to win here. This could be just an epic mistake on my part. But I'm saying we'll win here, Elvis. As are you.

I think Elvis should win in this category. And for one reason and one reason only. Elvis, a film I'm not a fan of, ends remarkably well with fat Elvis. With fat Elvis, yeah. And it's like the fat suit but less offensive. Yes. If not... Well, just like...

Yeah, it's like... Amazingly accurately rendered. You know, I've heard many people observe this. But when you get to the end of the movie, you're like, is that actually Elvis at the end of his life? Or is it Austin Butler? It's a remarkable transformation. It speaks to Butler's performance, obviously, but it also speaks to the work that the folks on this film did. You think should win, as you said.

Black Panther, Wakanda forever. Just again for that, just the total invention and the, and the like seamlessness of the whole, of the look. Okay. Next category is best visual effects. I think this is the single easiest category to predict in the entire night. The nominees are Frank Petzold, Victor Moeller, Marcus Frank, and Camille Jafar for All Quiet on the Western Front.

Joe Leteri, Richard Bainham, Eric Sandon, and Daniel Barrett for Avatar The Way of Water. Dan Lemon, Russell Earle, Anders Longslands, and Dominic Tuohy for The Batman. Jeffrey Bauman, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudik for Black Panther Wakanda Forever. And Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Brian Litson, and Scott R. Fisher for Top Gun Maverick. What's winning? Avatar The Way of Water. Yes, we agree on that. And we agree that that should be the case

because they invented an entirely new technology to make this movie. A series of technologies, honestly. And it's 13 years in the making and is an extraordinary success. And this will be the way, specifically, the Academy recognizes Big Jim's work. Yes?

I agree with you. Anything else you want to say? We both agree that it should win because, listen, that water, those whales, pretty good. Really good whales. Let's go back to getting the whales brain juice. Like, if you could get a tool gun brain juice, like, would you drink some? In what, like, medium? How are you presenting the whale juice to

me you just got a shot no yeah no no no you you just got finished with like a seven mile run i don't know you're panting seven miles anymore i was gonna say like you put it into like a rum drink like picardy 151 and you light it on fire okay you kind of walked it you know what i recently bought like a 50 pack of the little vacation umbrella things that you put in drinks. So I'm ready to go on that front. You know, Brad Pitt's character in Babylon memorably orders a corpse reviver in an early stage of the film. What if instead of absinthe, we replaced it with brain whale juice in the corpse reviver? What else is in a corpse reviver?

Gin, a little bit ofanc, orange liqueur, lemon juice. Okay. I don't really think that those things are going to mask all of the brain juice. Rum would go a long way. Okay. You know?

Okay. So I'm going with Bobby's Mixology. Congrats to Avatar the Way of Water and the Whale Brains for their win in that category. Best Production Design. Here are the nominees. Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper

for All Quiet on the Western Front. Dylan Cole and Ben Proctor and Vanessa Cole for Avatar the Way of Water. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino for Babylon. Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn for Elvis. Rick Carter and Karen O'Hara for The Fablemans. This is a great day. This is a great moment for us. You know what? The floor is yours.

Babylon should win and will win. Yes. And I just want to say at the screening I attended, Damien Chazelle was working very, very hard to get people to recognize the work of florencia martin and anthony carlino they were both there and he interviewed them that was the purpose really of the screening was he interviewed the crafts people who were nominated at the academy awards in three categories and he kind of in painstaking fashion made them explain everything that they did to build this world and it sounded very unpleasant it sounded very hard and it was very successful uh i think in making us understand the world. Now how races like this

get to these moments of conclusion where it just seems obvious that certain films are going to win despite the fact that like, you know, All Quiet on the Western Front for all of its achievements, it has amazing production design as well. On the battlefields and the back rooms and all of the different things that we see. The back rooms look a little bit like someone, you know,

borrowed a library lamp and put it on a set to be quite honest, but the trenches were very good. They were very good. Elvis too. I thought Elvis had excellent production. Of course they rebuilt Graceland. So it's like, how do we get to a place where it's like so obvious that Elvis is going to win for makeup and hairstyling, but not for productions. I don't really know. Um, I don't know if it's that, you know, there's a lot of admiration for what Flo Martin does, but it does feel like it's going hard Babylon here. I do think it had some guild wins, right? It did have some guild wins.

It had some guild wins. And then also, again, that idea of period, peace, like reconstruction just really does appeal to people, which obviously Elvis and All Quiet on the Western Front also have. I don't know. All Quiet on the Western Front seems in like a different brain category than just like opulent cuss, you know? I agree. And there is an amount of a kind of collision between digital effects and production design in that film that say is not a huge part of the Babylon storytelling.

And so, you know, in the same way that visual effects is a way to recognize Avatar, this is a way to recognize Babylon. Will it be the last time we recognize Babylon we shall see I feel like sometimes a narrative starts with the movie based on the first thing that people notice about it when they see it and Babylon that like 30 minutes at the beginning it's so much production and set design and then they build sets throughout the movie too so it's just there present from the very beginning I think that's exactly right And to Amanda's earlier point about period pieces often doing well in the costume categories, that's also true for this category. Okay. Best sound. The nominees are Victor Prossel, Frank Cruz, Marcus Stemmler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte for All Quiet on the Western Front. Julian Haworth, Gwendolyn Yates

Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyas, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges for Avatar the Way of Water. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson for The Batman, David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller for Elvis, Mike Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nilsson, Chris Burden, and Mark Taylor for Top Gun Maverick. They've combined the two sound categories

in recent years, and that's why there are so many people nominated for these awards. It's not just sound editing and sound mixing. It's the whole kit and caboodle around sound. So, what's gonna win? Top Gun Maverick. Not just because we like it. It won both of the Guild Awards, both the Cinema Audio Society and the Motion Picture Society or something. And yeah, that one. I agree. And I think that it should win, but you say no. Well, I think TAR should have been nominated and win in this category, but it's not nominated,

so I think Top Gun Maverick should win. Because it's a much more, you know, Top Gun Maverick is a very loud film. Yes. It's an immersive, expansive version of sound.

Tar is a shrunk down. Well, it's hard, but it's hard to do. It's quiet, but like the sound of her going through the tunnel and the buzzing, there is a design to the articulated and carefully managed world that she lives in. And then also incorporating all of the music that I think is pretty impressive, if subtle.

There's been a lot of talk about that movie and the ending, when she enters that tunnel space and how the story shifts. But to me, the moment when the story shifts is when she's off for a run in the park and she hears a scream. Yes, yeah. And then she turns

and there's that shot on her face from a middle distance and we almost like see her psyche collapsing in real time. Yeah. And that is a product

of the sound, right? Yes. It's not nominated though, so it can't win. Top Gun Maverick. I love Top Gun Maverick. Okay. One of my favorite

categories coming up here. Best original score here are the nominees. Volker Bertelman for All Quiet on the Western Front. Justin Hurwitz for

Babylon. Carter Burwell for The Banshees of Inisharen. Sun Lux for Everything Everywhere All at Once. And the legendary

John Williams for The Fablemans. So we have a split here finally. I think Babylon's going to win. I think Hurwitz is going to win. I think that it's good to believe in things that you love

and to say it out loud. And I also think that the Babylon score should win. I was going back and forth on this because I think the score from All Quiet on the Western Front is the best part of the film and is very memorable and interesting. And I picked it to win because people like that movie, especially like old people.

It's nominated up and down across the board. It did win score at the BAFTAs. Babylon's score is wonderful by Justin Hurwitz, but I am still really engaged by how that score interacts with the La La Land score. And I think it's, to me, the most interesting and most accomplished part of the movie. And I could spend a lot of time wondering about some of the psychology of all of that, and I have actually. But it's a beautiful score on its own, and then what it does in conversation with past

work and what that adds to the film to me is impressive. The ongoing collaboration between Hurwitz and Chazelle is very interesting. And in fact, I think in many ways resembles what Spielberg and John Williams have been doing for a very long time. And that seems like a very purposeful thing. I think you're right that the Babylon score is in conversation with the La La Land score. And there's sort of like reflections of it throughout. One of the criticisms you see of Babylon is that that score is over deployed in the film.

That it's used too often. I think that's obviously by design. The kind of like the exasperation of this crazy story is part of the way you're meant to feel. And the cues for each character is very purposeful. You know, Hurwitz has been nominated three times in different categories for original song and for score he won for score for La La Land he hasn't been nominated for first man he was nominated for first man I think there's a lot of admiration for him but I think you're right that there is a kind of a sense of innovation in the way that there is this kind of um anachronistic synth style used in the All Quiet

on the Western Front score that people may want to recognize here I don used in the All Quiet on the Western front score that people may want to recognize here. I don't know. If All Quiet wins, I won't be shocked, but I'm... You gotta pick a couple

that are just like, this is what I want to happen. I think it's great. That's how I started this category with you. Best original song. A nonsense category. It's silly,

but it's better this year than it usually is. It is better than this year just because the concept of let's get really famous people you like at the Oscars worked. They didn't quite nail it. There was a chance to get The Weeknd involved here. There was a chance to get, who else?

I think Ryan Reynolds and Will Ferrell could have been nominated in this category for Spirited. That didn't happen. Yeah, despite your write-in campaign and aggressive to leslie but here's the here's the thing about that though and i'll read the i'll read the nominees and you'll see like how ridiculous some of these nominees are historically diane warren is yet again nominated the the susan lucci of the academy awards for a song called applause that i've never heard from a movie called tell it like a woman that i've never seen tell like a woman does not have a rotten tomatoes review has anyone seen tell Tell It Like a Woman does not have a Rotten Tomatoes review.

Has anyone seen Tell It Like a Woman? Here are the other nominees. From Top Gun Maverick, music and lyric by Lady Gaga and Blood Pop, Hold My Hand. From Black Panther Wakanda Forever, music by Thames, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Granson, lyric by Thames and Ryan Coogler. Lift Me Up from RRR. Music by M.M. Kiravani. Lyric by Chandra Bose. Natu Natu from Everything Everywhere All at Once. Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski.

Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne. This is a life. Pretty close to lockdown on this category too. And I think we agree, although it's an interesting conversation. You know, Ryan Coogler has been nominated for like three different Academy Awards, but never in Best Director.

What else is that? Screenplay, I assume? Screenplay and Best Picture. He's a producer. Oh, right. Of course. I think Ryan Coogler deserves many Oscars. I don't know if he needs best original

song first, primarily because I think that this is a BS category that usually is filled with nominees of songs that play at the end. And I love an end credit song. You know, the Will Smith remix, one of the great moments of my life. So was the original Men in Black. You know, like that, you know, we used to build things, et cetera. We used to have Will Smith just sing in a credit song. We used to be a proper country where Will Smith wouldn't physically

assault people on stage at the Oscars. But it's not, you know, that's just tacked on. That doesn't really count. Natu Natu is within the fabric of the film RRR because RRR is like a three-hour musical extravaganza. It's also like very memorable and exciting. The choreography has a lot to do with that.

But I'm choosing to interpret this nomination as like a nomination for the entire number, you know, and which I thought was exhilarating. So I think it will win because Netflix put a lot of money behind this movie and this is their nomination. And I'm also giving it should win because at least it's like, number one, it's good. And it's also like part of the film. I think it's a no brainer that it's going to win and it should win. And, you know, it's representative of, again, like a kind of movie. It's important in a year like this. And we'll talk about it as we get further into these categories. But a Tollywood film that has a long history of musical numbers like this,

there's no category for best choreography. Right. Sometimes movies win in this category because of what you just said. That it's the song and it's also the scene. And it's how it's deployed. This is a case where I feel like that is true. I think that that's how it should be awarded. This isn't the Grammys.

You can go win a Grammy. You know, I'm sure somebody will. Next category, best animated film. Nominees are Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. That's right. Puss in Boots, The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, and Turning on. That's right. Puss in Boots the last wish. The sea beast and turning red. Ciao Papa.

Mi Papa. We are. This is so glorious in person. I was on Zoom last time. I'm a fascist. So you watched it? Yeah, I watched it. I do my homework.

Okay, so what'd you think? I mean, goblins, this is terrifying. All of these figures are incredibly scary and menacing, which I think fascists should be, you know. But I'm also just like, wow. It's like Il Duce in the mix with four-year-olds. Sure. This film features Mussolini. Yeah.

That's a fact. Okay. My wife and I went on one of our vanishingly few date nights since our daughter was born to go see this movie, the premiere at AFI. And afterwards, she was like, so, you didn't tell me this was set during the fascist regime of Italy. We weren't expecting that. Right. Nor was I when I fired it up. We should't expecting that. Right. Nor was I when I fired it up.

We should have because it's a Guillermo del Toro movie and of course most of his movies are about the reign of fascism in countries throughout history. That is a theme

that he returns to over and over again that inflects a lot of his stories. I think we both know in our hearts that this movie's going to win Best Animated Feature. Del Toro's been working

very hard on the campaign trail. He is widely admired. He of course won Best Picture. He is widely admired. He, of course, won Best Picture. Yeah. He is one of the true ambassadors of cinema. It's a really interesting year

for this category because you've got a Pixar movie, which historically usually dominates in Turning Red. You've got a Netflix animated feature.

They're getting increasingly respected in the space of animation. They've spent a lot of money. They've put out a lot of films. They've been nominated in this category

a couple of times now. Puss in Boots to Last Wish, which I wasn't really that crazy about, but it's probably the movie that I've gotten the most blowback on my opinion about since Inception, where people are like,

you fucking idiot. You don't understand the masterpiece of Puss in Boots, which is a sequel spinoff from the Shrek series. And the original Puss in Boots film came out like nine years ago. Did you see this movie, Bob? Isn't it a prequel? No, I didn't see it. I thought it was a prequel spinoff. from the Shrek series and the original Puss in Boots film came out like nine years ago.

Did you see this movie, Bob? Isn't it a prequel? No, I didn't see it. I thought it was a prequel spinoff. Yes, you're right. Well, we're going to have this conversation again when we talk about Scream and how confusing it is. Banderas is just very powerful.

I don't know what to say. He's good in the film. I liked his voice performance. You didn't watch this one? So I really tried to watch everything and that's hence me watching Pinocchio at like 10 in the morning and texting you about fascism. And I got at like 9.13 last night.

I fired up and I was like, am I going to pay 20 bucks to rent Puss in Boots The Last Wish when I don't think it's going to win? And I don't think I'm going to think it should win. And so I didn't rent. I didn't rent it. Did you know it's like one of the box office successes of the year? I did know that. So that's why I was hoping that it was streaminger. All of my friends love this movie. I still have not seen it. I think that rent it. Did you know it's like one of the box office successes of the year? I did know that. It's chugging along. So that's why I was hoping that it was, you know, streaminger. All of my friends love this movie.

I still have not seen it. I think that's sick. I think you're younger than me and you have a relationship to Shrek that I don't. Shrek is amazing. Yeah. Amazing film. You and Al Pacino agree. I don't really.

Al Pacino loves Shrek. Let's come back to Shrek one day on this podcast. Sounds good. Maybe Shrek will be the film that you trade to Amanda in our movie swap. I've seen Shrek, but you need to revisit it with an open heart and an open mind, or maybe it's just Puss in Boots. It's like a fairy tale.

That's fine with, well put. That's why they pay you the big bucks. Shrek is like a fairy tale. I will say also, I tried watching the sea beast. I was like, I'm going to do it. I like that one. I made it three minutes and 49 seconds Beast. I was like, I'm going to do it.

Oh, I like that one. I made it three minutes and 49 seconds. And I was like, I absolutely, I need to watch another episode of Daisy Jones and the Six. I can't be that. My life is too short. The real fascist is you. That's the truth.

Have a little fun. I literally can sing Ciao Papa and did on a podcast. What more do you want from me? I'm trying. I'm meeting you where i can i appreciate it so i think that uh turning red should win turning red was my favorite animated movie i really liked turning red but since you put that for should when i put marcel the show with shoes on which i loved you did yeah good were you a fan of the viral film yeah that was

like when i was just living inside the internet like marcel um but i thought it was very charming and then I thought, I honestly thought I would like watch part of it and be like, okay, I get the gist because the Pinocchio is going to win this award. And I was like, I don't have to do that much. Steamroller. And then I just finished Marcel because I wanted to watch all of it.

And I thought it was very moving. It's nice. It's like 82 minutes. It's a little slight in my opinion, but it's nice. It's well done. Yeah. Have a heart, Sean.

It's also like, I like that we're doing something other than animated movies for kids. Agreed. In this category and just in general. Like, honestly, that is the best argument for getting me, a person who hates cartoons, interested in this category is make stuff other than, you know, baby movies. It's a major evolution if you look at the animation styles in all five films, they're all different. Turning Red is digitally animated Pixar.

The Sea Beast is a classical 2D animation story. Marcel the Shell Shoes On is both live action and stop motion animation and CGI together. And of course, Pinocchio is a classic

stop motion animation movie. So it's a cool representation. The only thing that is really missing in this category for me is Apollo 10 1⁄2, which is the rotoscoping style that Richard Linklater has been innovating on for 20 years now. So cool category. Pinocchio is going to win. Best international feature film. The nominees are All Quiet on the Western Front from Germany,

Argentina 1985 from Argentina, Close from Belgium, EO from Poland and The Quiet Girl from Ireland See all these films? I did You want to talk about The Quiet Girl? Yeah

It's a film about a couple named Sean and Eileen who welcome a little girl into their life Right What? For those of you who are not following that closely Sean's wife is also named Eileen and they recently had a daughter Yeah What? For those of you who are not following that closely, Sean's wife is also named Eileen, and they recently had a daughter.

Yeah. I thought this was a lovely film. This was one of the ones that I saw kind of in my cram period before this. So it is part of a large number of films about losing a child and then trying to deal with that loss and that transference in some way which was it was it's been an intense 48 hours for me in terms of consuming all of this content it's a big theme um that's just very quickly like we we talked about this a lot in the in the

aftermath of the birth of both of our children yeah you don't really realize that it's like 50 of movies yes are about people who had kids and or at least like thinking about the idea of having a family and how you know it's it's under it's illegible to you like bob you don't have children it's legible to you when you're watching a movie okay movies are about families but like it is the bedrock of so much storytelling and so much storytelling that is recognized at, at things like the Academy Awards. And this is no different. Yes. I thought this one was very moving, but I don't think it's going to win.

It's not going to win. It's a very small movie. Absolutely pulverizing final five minutes for me. God. Yeah. Like extraordinarily like, wow. Crushed me right in the center of my chest.

Yes. Um, very, very sweet film. Uh, I would not say innovative, but it's a kind of a miracle that it got in over movies like Decision to Leave or Bardo, much bigger productions from masters.

This is not that kind of a film. All Quiet on the Western Front, I think we can both agree, is far and away dominant. This is like the fifth or sixth category we've talked about where it's sort of like there's no chance it wins. Now, we saw Argentina in 1985

win at the Golden Globes, which is a big surprise. All quiet on the Western Front dominated BAFTA, which makes it pretty clear that this is going to win, but we'll see. And it is also nominated

in Best Picture and so many other categories that people are... This is the place to recognize it. Yes. I loved EO. I thought it was a really a fascinating experiment

and its recognition I think is really interesting for this branch of the Academy. You know, Yersey Skolomowski is like 90 years old and made this film

about a donkey kind of experiencing the world much like some of the shorts categories. It's a sort of conservationist story a story about

kind of like humanity and how we treat other creatures really beautiful but very experimental and not it doesn't have the kind of like

traditional style of something like Argentina in 1985 so I think it would be interesting to recognize a movie like this it's not going to it has no chance to win

but I like the movie that you think should win too I chose Close I chose the coming of age drama of course directed by Lucas Dont who you had on this podcast. Yeah, our podcast. Yeah, our podcast.

I know, but you did the interview, and it was very charming. This is a Belgian movie with one of the most incredible kid... And I think kid is unfair because it is about a teenager, but Eden Dembreen is the actor, and it's about him going through a tragic loss of his own. And just the perspective and the stillness and the way that what he is feeling or working through is conveyed is pretty astonishing and very moving. It's a wonderful film, very, very well made and amazing performances. And it has no chance to win.

Okay. Best documentary feature. The nominees are All That Breathes, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny, and All the Beauty in the Bloodshed. So we both picked Navalny. It won at the PGAs. It did win at the PGAs. And it also won at the BAFTAs.

There is a sense that it is the movie for our times because of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Right. And the fact that it spotlights Alexei Navalny, who is this, you know, kind of defiantly political dissident figure who, you know, challenges Vladimir Putin and then suffers the consequences of challenging Vladimir Putin as a political candidate. I loved this movie out of Sundance 2022. I thought it was very well made, sort of like a spy thriller. And has some pretty incredible fly on the wall. I can't believe that this is happening in real time moments. There is one sequence in particular that is worth the price of admission.

Yes. That is like an amazing catching someone in the act of doing something moment. That is great. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was one of my five favorite films last year. I think Laura Poitras is like one of the most important filmmakers in the last 30 years.

I think this is a very different kind of film for her, but it's very much in keeping with the kinds of stories that she tells about Nan Golden, the photographer and artist. I don't really know what's going to happen in this category is what I'm going to say. This is a weird branch.

These nominees are a little bit strange. I have noticed that a lot of pundits have been picking Fire of Love. Right. Which is a, you know,

largely archival feature about a couple of volcanologists who travel the world exploring volcanoes that has certainly a power and a profundity to it, but is unusual against the i don't know the sort of like urgency and necessity of a movie like nivalni

or even all the beauty and the bloodshed which is also right um you know a kind of opioid crisis in america all the beauty and bloodshed is a movie for our times but in uh i think a more personal and like a artistic um literally and figuratively um and surprising way in if um whereas nivalni is just kind of like here is a you know what the viewpoint is and you know like why this person's interesting and you understand like everything it's like a textbook yes it feels a little closer to Icarus, which was a winner some years back about the scientist who, you know, helped Russians win in the Olympics

and then became exiled. It's slicker than Icarus also. It is. My note about Navalny is like, I wish that it had more context about Navalny himself. It is clearly done, if not with his production input, then from his point of view.

And as an American, I don't know that much about him. Well, one of the things that I like about it is something that might turn people off, which is that it is not an entirely praiseworthy portrait of him. It identifies that he used some factions of Russian voters that are maybe a little bit more unseemly than it was like a white nationalist streak among some of the voters that followed him that is a little ugly. And the movie is tricky because he's very charismatic.

And so you want to root for him. And we know Putin to be this kind of strong man demagogue. But it's so closely told from his perspective though which is like necessary and yields some like incredible footage but I'm also like I you know I would like to I would have appreciated like a bit more distance and a bit anyway um can I just say one other thing yeah if all that breathes wins I won't be surprised at all because this is the category where my octopus teacher won and this is that's a movie about um a couple of brothers uh in new delhi who are sort of caring after this community of birds that is being pushed out because of climate change

and a number of other reasons and one bird in particular um this majestic kite that they are caring for movies like this tend to resonate yeah with the Academy and so I wouldn't be shocked. This is a real toss-up. I don't really feel good about anything in this category in terms of putting money on it. Okay.

Let's go to some really consequential categories now. These are sort of like the big 10 that we're going through. Best Film Editing. The nominees are Michael E.G. Nielsen

for The Banches of Innocent. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redman for Elvis. Paul Rogers for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Monica Willey for Tar, and Eddie Hamilton for Top Gun Maverick. Now, we've both chosen Paul Rogers for E-E-A-A-O. Everything Everywhere. Everything Everywhere All at Once. I don't feel great about this pick. Why not? I think Eddie Hamilton could win. And he is my pick for who should win. Okay. For his work on Top Gun

Maverick. Eddie Hamilton, very respected. A very gifted editor who's worked with McQuarrie many times in the past. Long relationship with Tom Cruise. This is a way to recognize Top Gun Maverick beyond sound. However, this category is usually

very indicative of where the best picture race is going. Exactly. No spoilers, but we think it's going not towards Top Gun Maverick's way. We do not think that. Now, I'm choosing everything everywhere to win. And I think Top Gun should win. But if it wins, I won't be surprised, is all I'm saying.

What do you think should win? I think TAR should win. You cannot start without me you know like you we can do the whole speech but it is I mean it's about time and precision and what you know when you know it in that movie and the end and what you're seeing and what you're cutting and the expressions it's very very precise and it doesn't work if it isn't perfectly calibrated. I agree. It's a great pick. Thank you. Good category.

Good collection of nominees in that category. Okay, let's go to Best Cinematography. The nominees are James Friend for All Quiet on the Western Front, Darius Kanji for Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Mandy Walker for Elvis, just the third woman

nominated in this category in Oscars history. Remarkable. Roger Deakins for Empire of Light. He has been nominated many times. And Florian Hoffmeister for Tar. Who do you think

is going to win? All quiet on the Western front. As do I. James Friend. You know, the people with their cameras, they love some warfare. They do love war.

They love some trenches. They love, you know, battle sequences. Some things exploding various places and people running and it being harrowing and visceral.

Congratulations. Who do you think should win? Lauren Hoffman, Sir for Tar. Yeah, me too. The same thing as before. It's so... That just movie uses

like every tool in the toolbox so specifically towards its purpose. And also looks amazing so people were very surprised that Claudio Miranda was not nominated for Top Gun Maverick in this category I think at the start of

award season there was a sense that he was going to run away with this but I think also nobody saw the all quiet on the western front thing happening yeah it's kind of we're going to get to that. Let's keep going because I want to talk more about All Quiet.

Best Adapted Screenplay. Nominees are All Quiet on the Western Front screenplay by Edward Berger, Leslie Patterson, and Ian Stoeckel. Glass, Onion, and Knives Out Mysteries

written by Ryan Johnson. Living written by Kazuo Ishiguro. Top Gun Maverick screenplay by Aaron Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie. Story by Peter Craig

and Justin Marks. And Women Talking, screenplay by Sarah Pauly. Sarah Pauly's going to win this. Yes. In the grand tradition of giving a woman, or giving someone you like,

but not that much, a screenplay award and nothing else. She won the USC Scripter Award. She won the WGA Award. She's won the precursors. Sarah Polly is widely respected. This film is very respected and you know how you know how.

It got nominated for Best Picture despite the fact that it's a very small movie. I think it should win too. Now, I think my appreciation for this movie exceeds yours. And I... I'm not saying anything. I haven't read the... I like Sarah Polly a lot. Okay. And I think she deserves an Oscar.

It is... We're going to do preferential ballots later. It is. Damn. Yeah. Sheesh. Well. I think that it's not easy to do something like this.

And I think that she did it successfully. People may disagree. It's a very speechy movie. And it feels very speechy and stagey at times. But for me, that worked. Yes. And I felt connected to the characters and understood their points of view what do you think should win Top Gun Maverick it's a horrible take

they did it fuck off what's wrong with you I mean what it's a brilliant structure with pretty mediocre dialogue it's my take but the I think that's unfair because you need you need broad dialogue in top gun maverick and i think it walks the line between hitting all of those like emotions in the really really accessible strokes of it you know we talked a lot about the dialogue um in avatar way of water with van and i think that doesn't pass the test like no one thought about it at all but this i wouldn't say that but okay well they didn't think

about it thought about it at all not not enough it was an afterthought how about that it's not nominated and this at least it it lands the it lands the plane hey um that's podcasting for you 500 million plus I don't know they reanimated this like not that good movie from the 80s and made it

like structurally like exhilarating but also emotionally affecting so Top Gun Maverick when they're

adapted screenplay I don't know if it should win but it definitely belongs here I mean it's a weird screenplay is not

just dialogue why don't you guys tell me more about the men the women who are talking i'd love to hear from setting up the action and the events in a clear and legible way and what movie does that better in 2022 than top gun maverick tremendously well structured i will not argue that point structure is important you cannot start without me yes you're just saying all your stuff now that's what you used to say as an editor and now you're saying

okay best original screenplay here are the nominees The Banshees of Inisharen written by Martin McDonough Everything Everywhere All at Once written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

The Fablemans written by Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner Tar written by Todd Field and Triangle of Sadness written by Ruben Ostlund Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to win

yes it won the WGA award. It did. It's been winning at a lot of awards, but not all writing awards, right? It didn't win at BAFTA, right?

That's true, but BAFTA and things not from, you know, the Isles or continental Europe don't go very well together. I see. Okay. We both think

Tar should win. I think there's a strong case for the Fablemans and Banshees in this category, too. Of course. And this feels, whereas the previous category

I thought was a little wonky, this one I think is loaded with talent. Yeah. I mean, this is also, this is always where all our faves are, you know?

Yeah. And this is just, this is the best category. This is the best category and it's the category that's most to our interest. We like things that are written. We like, you know and this is this is the best category this is the best category and it's the category that's most to our interest we like things that are written we like you know like because some movies are more visual achievements and this is these all have ideas they're all pretty talky in their own way you know we'd like the this is just our taste the irony of this season to me is that

in almost any other year Everything Ever Rolled Once would win this category and in no other categories. It is the kind of movie it is the Charlie Kaufman-esque movie Right. that is wildly inventive

that takes huge structural and storytelling risks that has personal voice in it that is a story that means something to people that resonates deeply and then those movies usually get passed over for the

big categories. So it's funny that it's probably going to win here and also dominate elsewhere. I know. It's really an unusual thing that we're

experiencing with this movie so we'll talk about it more as we keep going through this process. Speaking of best actor in a supporting role.

Here are the nominees Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisharen, Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway, Judd Hirsch in The Fablemans, Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisharen, Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway, Judd Hirsch in The Fablemans, Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisharen,

and Kiwi Kwan in Everything Ever Real at Once. Who's going to win this one? Kiwi Kwan. Yeah, he has... Every single award. He has suplexed his way to the finish line. And you know what? He has taken all of those wins seriously,

and he has prepared a speech for every single one that I find very touching. He understands the assignment. Do you think this will be the first award we see? Could be. I mean, traditionally, the supporting actor and actress go first in order to kind of get some super famous people up on the screen early. This would make sense.

I think he would give the show an adrenaline shock because you know he's going to be fired up if he wins and they might be looking to that. And frankly, the paired category actress in the supporting role is more unpredictable and they may not want to do that. Although, we shall see. Should win. I was thinking about Banshees and Barry Keoghan.

Now, obviously, Brendan Gleeson has a much bigger role in this film. And he and Colin Farrell are sort of co-leads in many ways. But I think that the movie, the crux of the movie, is the tragedy of Barry Keoghan's character. And he holds the movie together in a lot of ways. But I think that the movie, the crux of the movie is the tragedy of Barry Keoghan's character. And he holds the movie together in a lot of ways and everything, like the absolute crushing sorrow

that is like, you know, threads this movie weighs on his shoulders and your kind of sadness for him and your kind of fascination with him and your charm from him even though he's adult, you know,

but like there is an aspect of, a like there is a an aspect of an old and a non-enunciated aspect of like trauma and abuse that underlines the story there's an oddness about people who just like can't connect with others that i think is very modern for a story that is set 100 years ago and he's just a winning actor who we really like on the show so i'm going with barry kyogan i agree with this and was going to pick him in this category, but then you did, so I just... I put Brian Tyree Henry down

because he's one of our generation's greatest actors and he deserves an Oscar. So, like, let's just... Let's... If not now, maybe he'll get it

another time, but why not? I'll be surprised if he doesn't win in the next 10 years. Yeah. I was just looking to see whether Barry Keoghan

got all his stuff back. Did you see this last night? No, what happened? You saw this. Yeah. He flew to LA for the Oscars, but British Airways lost his bag and it was like, and he had to like go back to the airport, but they didn't have it. And so it was one of those like desperation tweets. And then there are people in the mentions being like, you need to DM this person. Anyway, he's, I can't find the tweet now. So maybe he did get his stuff back because it's deleted. Yeah. I hope so.

All I can hear in my voice is him arriving at the counter to pick up his bags and learning that they've been lost and him saying, there goes that dream. Okay. Best actress in a supporting role.

Angela Bassett in Black Panther Wakanda Forever. Hong Chao in The Whale. Carrie Condon in The Banshees of Inna Sharon. Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once. So, Jamie Lee Curtis is going to win? I guess so, yeah. Isn't that crazy?

It is. Now, obviously, there is a long history of luminous figures in Hollywood getting their Oscar kind of near the end of their career after an incredible body of work. Jamie Lee Curtis kind of has a 100% approval rating. You know, she's a part of the Halloween franchise. She's the

daughter of two huge movie stars. She is an ambassador for the unions that she's a part of. She's an ambassador for Hollywood and Hollywood storytelling. She's a really great actress with a lot of range who can do drama and comedy. And she's a genre queen. And she's been given some great speeches. But is her work and everything

her role? Like, what? Like, that's a weird character. It's a funny character. But like, what? I mean, I agree with you. But I also picked her. I think that she will win. It's a little bit she's they've all been working really hard on the campaign trail. And I don't say that like, that's great. They're very good at it. It's been really feel good. And she has been working so hard and the speeches and the campaign events and the jokes and the effusiveness for everybody else in her cast and the, you know, and she's been playing the, I'm 64 and it's nice to have never been nominated before. It's nice to have this recognition.

Like everybody loves all of those stories. I think she is still a link to old Hollywood in a way that people, you know, she is Hollywood royalty. And that still has power, I think, among the voters and in LA at large. and Elliot Larch. For me, when she got the I'm an actor spot and then won at the SAG Awards, I was like, oh, okay, this is it. And people went nuts.

I felt the same way. Now, you know, for many months, many people assumed that Angela Bassett would win for her performance in Black Panther Wakanda Forever.

She, too, is a luminary, somebody who people really admire, who's given great performances, been previously nominated. You know, Matt Bellany, I think, who's given great performances, been previously nominated. You know, Matt Bellany, I think,

who had suggested that the fact that this would be the first performance in a Marvel movie to win is actually now working against her because that's a concept that has been promoted

and people don't love that. There's a little resentment towards superhero movies in the industry. It's also just like it's debatable whether or not this is also the kind of movie

you'd want to reward Angela Bassett for. But that will sting a little bit if she doesn't win but Jamie Lee wins for a movie that is like not her best performance yes if you're going to give it to like a Jamie Lee performance over the years I don't even know what you would give it to like True Lies or Trading Places or something like that True Lies is what yeah came to mind um as far as should win you know you you you picked Carrie Condon who I think I would have picked if you would not pick Carrie Condon so I picked Stephanie Hsu yeah uh I think they're both picked if you had not picked Carrie Condon. So I picked Stephanie Hsu.

Yeah. I think they're both really worthy. I think in the same way that I think Barry Keoghan kind of unlocks his movie as the third figure in the movie, I think Stephanie Hsu also unlocks everything, everywhere, all at once. She has some of the big emotional moments. She also has a very transformative role as the villain of the movie, really, which is kind of a fascinating thing. Why'd you pick

Carrie Condon? I think she's wonderful and also that's how I relate to the Benches of Nesheran is the impatient sister on the side being like,

get your shit together and I'm leaving. Yeah, that is you on this podcast. Yeah, exactly. So,

but I think, I think I really, she adds like the groundedness to the movie that is. Did you identify this when we did the pod about this movie? Yeah, I did because we did it with Chris and I was immediately like, I'm just, I'm intruding here. So CR is Colin Farrell. Yeah.

Just a good guy. Wants to have a good time. Right. Have a pint. Enjoy life. Loves his donkey. Spend time with his family and friends. Yeah.

I am an agonized artist who is also untalented and just thinking about legacy right and spiteful and i have a mean streak but also himself mutilating yeah and you are annoyed by everybody because they're dumb yes and then i make my way in the world to work at a library does that make me barry kyogen the only person left in the film? I hope not. I hope it doesn't make you the cop. Yeah. Or Jenny. Oh, Jesus. Yeah. Pure but-

The sacrificial donkey. Failed by the world. Yeah. Maybe you're the Banshee. Oh. Hey. That's right. You see all and you predict oncoming deaths.

Maybe I'm out there fighting in the war. Could be. You could be the- Yeah. You're the true soldier of this pod. Is that not bombs? You know? We might have to do a Banshees watch.

The mail lady? Gosh. It's insulting. Best actor in a leading role. Here are the nominees. Austin Butler in Elvis. Please contain yourself, Amanda. Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisharen.

Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Paul Meskell in After Sun. And Bill Nighy in Living. Who's going to win? Austin Butler. I'm just, I, you know, at some point, if you're driving the wagon, you got to stay on it. Even if it's careening somewhere. Is that like a sexual metaphor, driving the wagon?

What are you talking about? You know what? I am keeping this respectful and you're the the one who's veering off the rails. 500 million. Okay. After your Marion Cotillard and Anne Hathaway performances the other day, the gall to call Amanda out for Austin Butler. Let me tell you.

She was more horned for Marion than I was. Jeez. She's really beautiful. Yeah, I agree. It's funny that I'd forgotten that she was in that movie. But I do love her and I love everything that she gets up to, even if I don't endorse some of her political or conspiratorial beliefs. If you want 500 million followers, just get 400 million women to talk about Austin Butler and listen to us talk about Austin Butler, because that is the power that this man has.

You want to deny it, but it's just like, it's a real thing that's happening and I don't know how I can't, like, you don't get it.

This is what they said about David Koresh right before he fucking burned down the compound in Waco. Be careful. Everybody who is interested in men

gets it. Okay. Well, I consider myself an expert in men. Okay. But not in that in men gets it. Okay. Well, I consider myself an expert in men. Okay. But not in that way. Not in that way. I think Brandon Fraser is going to win because he won the SAG award. And he didn't win at the Golden Globes for a very obvious reason.

Right. He's won a lot of critical acclaim. I bet you this is a real like 37%, 32%, 22% kind of a race. You know, like there's a lot of splitting going on here. It's very unpredictable. You and I loved Colin Farrell in Banshees. We both would like to see Colin Farrell win an Oscar. I think, you know, all three of these people are worthy.

As much as I have dumped on Elvis, from the very first time we talked about it, I thought he was extraordinary. Would you like to talk about his WTF appearance? He's so winning. Yeah, I know. You texted me afterwards and you were like, yo, I get it. Which is amazing. Shout out to his team who put him on the WTF pod the week before Oscar voting.

Because that's like the one base that he doesn't have locked down. He didn't need to go on any of my Instagram shows or whatever. He's, he needed you. Yeah. And he just like hung out with Marc Maron and you were like, yeah, man. Well, he did all the things. Yeah.

He did explain the Elvis process effectively and gracefully, pardon the pun. He talked about movies in a very thoughtful way for a kid who comes out of the Disney-Nickelodeon system and talked about like what he really likes about movies and the kinds of movies that he likes and responds to and the kinds of movies he wants to make, which makes me excited about him as a young movie star. And then he talked about his he really likes about movies and the kinds of movies that he likes and responds to and the kinds of movies he wants to make, which makes me excited about him as a young movie star.

And then he talked about his family and his mom. And I was like, oh, my God, this is really effective. It's the tropey WTF, the stuff I've had to endure kind of stuff. And he's a young guy, but I thought he spoke very thoughtfully about it. So, yeah, I get it. He's great. He's the new Gosling. He's great.

Yeah. No, you're right. That's what he is. Are you willing to put this category on the line if Austin Butler does win? Are you willing to do the entire reaction show in Austin Butler Elvis voice? I think he might win, so I can't do that. I can't make that promise, unfortunately.

I think it's a really close race, and it's good that we're splitting on this. Best actress in a leading role. Also a very close race. Yeah. Cate Blanchett in Tar. Ana de Armas in Blonde. Andrea Risborough in Too Leslie

remember that? Michelle Williams in The Fablemans Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once we should have mentioned that the best supporting

actress thing that is super weird that Jamie Lee Curtis now might win she wouldn't have won if Michelle Williams would have just run in this category

if Michelle Williams would have run in this category she would have won out and out for The Fablemans in my opinion you think so?

I do but you were kind of iffy on that performance. I didn't love it. And you were representing a lot of people who were like, I don't know about,

that was a lot. But there's so much respect for her as an actor. And she just happened to drive her way into a fight for the ages

between the two leading contenders in this category plus the Andrea Risborough thing which kind of blotted out Michelle Williams' nomination completely. Like nobody is two leading contenders in this category, plus the Andrea Risborough thing, which kind of blotted out Michelle Williams' nomination completely. Like, nobody is thinking about that performance in this category at all. Whereas they're thinking about Cate Blanchett, they're thinking about Michelle Yeoh, and

then they have to contend with the Risborough stuff. To say nothing of Ana de Armas' transformation, which, you know, we don't like that movie, but as we know in these leading actor categories, if you play a real person, you tend to get a lot of respect and appreciation. Actors really seem to like this performance they like blonde colin farrell was moved by blonde i i think michelle yo is gonna win so do i how does that make you feel happy for her yeah i i mean i think she's wonderful in it you and i both have cape lanchanchett in Tar as should win, which I kind of feel like if we thought Cate Blanchett was going to win, then I would have put Michelle Yeoh in should. I don't know.

I think Tar, as you've said several times, is probably a five-star movie. It's getting close. It's not there yet. I think it is. And she's unbelievable. And the movie for everything that I've said about the script and the cinematography and the sound and the precision and the care, like, you know, is her. It can't work without her. Would Tar be a good movie to do a live big picture event for?

Like screen Tar? No. Because then, like, JMO will break out in hour two and we will all like that would be by design we will all be lydia you know okay well you mean break out we lead with jmo and then maybe big picture in part two i jmo jmo actually does have 500 million listeners i don't trust you in front of a live mic on hour three of TAR. We just did hour three of The Dark Knight Rises and I was magnificent. You were.

I was talking about Girl Scout cookies and all kinds of good content. You don't trust me? No, you were great. Well, I mean, it would be funny. We should do Top Gun Maverick. What is this? All right. Let's go to best directing.

Anyway, I'm happy for Michelle Yeoh. Did you see the little mini scandal of her Instagram? I think it's okay. Posted something and deleted it. Yes, because it like maybe ran afoul of some of the like frankly Byzantine and ineffective like campaigning laws, which Bill Kramer suggested that they would be revising those, which they obviously need to do. They have to make a lot of changes because a lot of stuff happened this season that people kind of got slapped on the wrist for, but were not really that big of an infraction. It's 2023. Social media has changed a lot of this stuff.

Let's be clear. Michelle Yeoh winning an Oscar, rules. It's great. I'll say there is a part of me that definitely still thinks that Cate Blanchett can win. A lot of the older pundits are picking Cate Blanchett. I think this could be a place where the sense that older voters that don't get everything everywhere could reject it. Yes. That's possible. This also feels like 51-49 to me.

This is also, I think if Jamie Lee Curtis does not win for supporting, then that'll be a tell that maybe it's going to go Cate Blanchettett's way because I think you and I are just have looked at the last month and been like huh everything everywhere all at once huh like people seemed real psyched about this and there's a there's a real wave but things do change let's let's let's talk about that wave okay as we talk about directing and picture because it's all sort of related so the nominees for directing are the Banshees of Inishare and Martin McDonough everything everywhere all at once Daniel Kwan and Daniel Shiner, The Fableman, Steven Spielberg, Tar Todd Field, and for Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Ostlund. We both think that the Daniels are going to win. Yes. Who do you think should win?

I think Todd Field should win. I think there's a strong case for that. I've spent a lot of time emotionally reckoning with my relationship to Steven Spielberg, who I now believe should win for making this incredibly perverse film about his adolescence. They're both great candidates. This is a pretty good category. I don't think Daniel should win at all, personally. That's nothing against them. I think what they did

is, I think that movie needed to be cut down quite a bit. It's hard when you're a writer-director on a story like this. You can make the same case for Fableman's that it's too long. Tar is a diamond, obviously. It doesn't really need to be cut down. Tricky category, but it dovetails into Best Picture.

And I just want to get right into Best Picture so that we can address what has happened with everything ever all at once over the course of the last three months. So the Best Picture nominees are All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar the Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisharen, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fablemans, Tar, Top Gun Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. What's gonna win? Everything Everywhere All at Once.

I agree. What do you think should win? Top Gun Maverick. It's a scorching take. You know what, Mr. The Oscars need to include popular movies because we have to get the ratings up because people need to go to theaters because the future of cinema depends on it. That is literally on the back of a jersey. That's my middle name.

It says that on my birth certificate. Have a fucking spine. Stand up for what you believe in, which is top priority. Why do you guys make it so personal? Well, just because it's fun. Have a fucking spine? My should win is tar. So how about you have a spine?

Yeah. Step it up. A story about a woman in peril i have said that tar should win basically every single other category but this and i think the tar is the best film that was released this year top gun maverick as your friend steven spielberg and my friend steven spielberg never forget. It was one of my favorite movies of last year. Reminded us, saved movies. Did it really? Okay. We don't have time for that debate.

We don't have time. You and I did this. Wrap it up. No, it didn't. John Wick 4 being three hours is like when I almost crashed my car. Just so you know. When I learned that on a podcast and I was like, fuck, I'm going to have to see John Wick 4 being three hours is like when I almost crashed my car. Just so you know. When I learned that on a podcast and I was like, fuck, I'm going to have to see John Wick 4 for this podcast. And that was part of your argument that like movies are back because I have to go watch Keanu Reeves shoot people for three hours.

Like I am so unhappy. But you know what I was happy about was Top Gun Maverick. You know what millions of people around the world were happy about? Top Gun Maverick. Bring it together. It would be good for the Academy. It would be good for movies. It would be good for your best friend, Tom Cruise.

It would be good for me. It would be good for this podcast. Just do it. Best movie of the year. Most successful movie of the year. I'm happy for you. I'm happy that it exists. Everything everyone wants is going to win.

It won SAG, PGA, DGA, and WGA. I know. Only four films have ever done that. All four of them have won the Academy Award. If it doesn't win, it will be a statistical anomaly the likes of which the Academy Awards has never seen. And an online cultural nightmare. Correct. Now, I have made this case in the past about the extraordinary cultural shift that a movie that is largely influenced by The Matrix, Wong Kar Wai, Kung Fu Cinema, an immigrant story with a largely non-white cast from two filmmakers who got their start on YouTube

that is like widely influenced by meme culture. Like there is, this is so far out of the realm of normalcy, despite the fact that it is ultimately a very sentimental story about family that makes people feel good. It's a crazy thing that this is an absolutely domineering force. And there's only been a few movies in this century

that have cleaned up thus far in the way that it has. It's basically The Lord of the Rings, The Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Artist. Those are the movies that have really kicked ass through every precursor. Now, Lord of the Rings went 11 for 11. I think Slumdog went 8 for 8, maybe 8 for 9. And The Artist won five awards. The difference between this movie and those movies is that this movie could win three acting awards. This movie could win screenplay and directing and picture. It is not going to win the big five because it is

not eligible in best actor, but it's as close as we've had to a big five movie in a long, long time. The last time a movie won the big five awards was The Silence of the Lambs in 1991. Now, none of that could turn out to be true. Carrie Condon could win Best Supporting Actress. Cate Blanchett could win Best Actress. Maybe Steven Spielberg does pull out a Best Director win, and this is all for naught, but

I don't think so. Like, I think it's gonna be Bulldozer on Sunday. There's one caveat here. Old people? Old people old people yeah old people don't really get this movie it's not just old people but old academy voters old people plus amanda dobbins don't really know i've had some conversations off the record with people who have been on this podcast who thought that it ended uh at that like joke credit sequence. Damien Chazelle said that? An hour and 40 minutes in. What if Damien Chazelle and I were best friends?

That would be confusing. I would be so jealous. That would be so confusing. What if I was like, man, I really think we need to do another 60 on like what happened with the montage and how you're feeling, you know? And how are we doing today? What's that mean for tomorrow?

Continue. All quite on the Western front is the dark, dark, dark, dark, dark horse in this race. It's the only award that matters in the precursors that everything everywhere did not win is the BAFTAs and All Quiet won at the BAFTAs. Now, the BAFTAs is historically very bad at predicting best picture, but it is the movie that old people are most likely to respond to. It is the most traditional nominee here, despite the fact that there's a Steven Spielberg movie here. It's a war movie. It's a war movie that is adapted from a novel

that was adapted from a novel a century ago that won Best Picture. It's a very well-made movie. It's also an international production. Now, the Academy has gotten younger and more international. Did it get young enough? It's gotten more international, and we've seen that because folks like,

I don't know, directors from, Danish directors are winning Best Director now. You know what I mean? Like the Academy is changing a lot. If it wins, if All Quiet on the Western Front wins, it's significant for a variety of reasons. One of which is that it's a Netflix movie and it would be Netflix's first Oscar in Best Picture. The second reason is, is that it will be an absolute cultural nightmare. Yeah.

Because people are going to be like hollywood hasn't changed old white men dictating what is the greatest art over immigrant stories over stories about asian identity in our country over genre movies over all number of yeah outcry that we can anticipate i don't think it's going to happen i don't even think there's like a five percent chance that it's going to happen but the one percent chance that it happens it it's kind of annoying because All Quiet is, it's like, it's good. It's not, it's not anything more than good. It's like fine to good, honestly. A friend of mine who, who's like a normal movie watcher, watched it on Netflix, I guess,

because she had like heard enough to know that it was like sort of in the mix, but not enough to, and she texted me afterwards and she was like, this is going to win Best Picture. Like what's going on? And I was like, it's, it's fine. I was like, this is very complicated. Like here's the sort of thing. And she's like, I thought it was fine. And I was like, cool.

Me too. You know, but I guess war is war is war. One of the cases for winning is the preferential ballot, which is how Best Picture is voted upon. Every voter lists their films from 10 to 1. Now, the case against Everything Everywhere All at Once is the contingent that doesn't like it, they could all bury it at 10. Now, will there be a lot of ballots

where Everything Everywhere All at Once is at number one? I think there will. Yeah. And even at number two, with a movie like Tar or Top Gun kind of floating in that area. But there are going to be a lot where it's lower among the older contingents. So as an exercise, why don't we do our preferential ballot in real time?

Okay. What's your number 10? Women talking. Okay. That's rude. You know what? It's fine. It's also fine.

And it is just actors that I like a lot in an attic talking to each other. And I think it looks pretty bad. And I haven't read the novel, but I'm not sure that it was like the exploration of the themes that I needed in this time. That's just me. My number 10 is Elvis. Okay. What's your number nine?

Elvis. I think All Quiet is my number nine. Okay. What's your number eight? I guess All Quiet is my number eight. My number eight is Triangle of Sadness. And maybe that's even too high for it the more I think about it. My number seven is Triangle of Sadness.

I think my number seven is Women Talking. Okay. No shame there. It's not bad. What's your number six? Avatar, The Way of Water. That's also my number six. Yeah.

I like it. Impressive. Historically significant. What's your number five? Everything, Everywhere, All at Once. That's true for me number six. Yeah. I like it. Impressive. Historically significant. What's your number five? Everything, everywhere, all at once. That's true for me as well. Yeah. Four?

Banshees. Same for me. Yeah. Three is... The Fablemans. Two is, for me, Tar. It's Top Gun Maverick for me. Yeah, and I'm going one Top Gun Maverick.

And I'm going one Tar. Okay. Everything, everywhere, all at once is going to win? I think so. How do you feel about that? At this point, happy for everyone involved who feels invested in it. I still, if it wins everything that we've predicted it wins, I am still sort of surprised. Like, kind of baffled.

Not in a bad way and not because I didn't connect with it, but I'm just like, this is a very unpredictable movie to have when best picture, best director, best actress, best supporting actress, best supporting actor, screenplay. Like, that's wild. That's like the greatest movies in history haven't, you know, won any of those. I don't even know what to, I don't know. Like, what explains what explains it how how is this happening in 50 years will people look because younger people do like this movie a lot bobby yeah i've not really talked about this movie too much but like i know craig horbeck for example is a big fan of this movie i think it's good good to really good i would not put it in my top three of this year, even of the nominated movies. In 50 years, will we be like, this is our The Godfather?

I'm not being glib when I say that. I'm asking sincerely. I don't think we'll be like, this is The Godfather. Because what I'm saying is, could this be, and I was discussing this with Andy Greenwald today. I was like, will this radically influence the future of movies? This filmmaking style, this tone, these kinds of stories. When a movie like this rises to the top of the heap, there are reverberations usually. Now, there have been some examples of like unusual stories.

You know, you make fun of me for talking about The Shape of Water being a big shift. But that was like a period piece and it was very influenced by old Hollywood. And Guillermo del Toro had been nominated before and he's this old figure. These guys are newcomers. These guys, like, this is their second feature.

They haven't done, they've hardly done anything in Hollywood. So is this like the announcement of a new generation of movies? I guess we can wait

until Sunday maybe to talk about that. But I think that that's an interesting thing to be faced with because there's a lot of old guard stuff going on here. You know, there's the Top Gun be faced with because there's a lot of old guard stuff going on here.

You know, there's the Top Gun Mavericks and there's the Fablemans and Banshees have been a share. And these are kind of classical movies that are being recognized by the Academy. And then there's this thing that is like new movie making. And I guess we'll wait and see. It's Sunday night. Yeah, I have some theories. I'll save them. Okay.

Bobby, thank you. Nice to see you in person. Great to see you. Bob's all Sunday night. Yeah. I have some theories. I'll save them. Okay. Bobby, thank you. Nice to see you in person. Great to see you. Bob's our producer on this show. We're going to see you immediately after the Academy Awards. Tune in. See you then. Thank you.