The Big Picture - Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Should Win at the 2024 Academy Awards

Episode Date: March 7, 2024

Sean and Amanda make their final predictions for who will (and who should) win in every category at the 2024 Academy Awards. They discuss whether or not ‘Oppenheimer’ and Christopher Nolan will run the table as expected, who will come out on top in a neck-and-neck Best Actress race, whether any major contenders will go home empty-handed, and more. Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Senior Producer: Bobby Wagner Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Brian Curtis from The Ringer, and I want to tell you about the Press Box podcast. The Press Box is a podcast for anybody who likes news, whether it's about sports or politics or pop culture, and wants to understand how that news really gets made. We have new shows every Monday and Thursday. We have long interviews with everyone from John Krakauer to Joe Buck. Your social media feeds are bursting with information every day. Let us help you sort it out. Join us on the Press Box.

With TD Direct Investing, you can get live support. So whether you need help buying a partial share from your favorite tech company, opening a TFSA, or learning about investing tools, we're here to help. But keeping your cat off your keyboard, that's up to you. Reach out to TD Direct Investing today and make your investing steps count. Plus enjoy 1% cash back. Conditions apply. Offer ends January 31st, 2025. Visit td.com slash dioffer to learn more. I'm Sean Fennessy. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about our final

picks. We're on the verge of the 96th Academy Awards and the fever is running hot here at the big picture. Amanda, are you excited? Sure am. Okay. I've got the Oscar buzz. You know, it's me. This had Oscar buzz. I did. Did you? No. You never did? But you know, Los Angeles feels alive. It doesn't at all. I wasn't invited to a single gifting suite. So that's mostly what I'm pissed about. That's where your head's at? Heading into this wonderful award show? I mean, that is basically what this week is about, right? It's just various parties sponsored

by fashion companies and then gifting suites. And predictions. We're making predictions here today. Sure. And predictions. Do you suggest wagering on the Academy Awards? I still don't really know how to wager. And every i text you about this it's not a league it's not legal in california oh okay i i did know that but it's very complicated and we can't really get into it right now okay um we did make a wager right in with the october predictions yeah what did we put on the line bobby do you remember i don't think that we ever actually formalized what was on the line I think it was like yeah we'll figure it out later

you know the predictions are it was something about someone being able to make the other person watch a movie okay and you were like we'll just have a movie night

at home and I was like I don't want to come to your house and watch whatever weird shit you're screening that's just really mean spirited I don't really know

what to say about that but I wanted to make I wanted to make it like a public screening, you know? Kung Fu Panda 4? I almost went to that premiere. Ah, so did I. And we couldn't go, but everyone at Universal is being very nice about trying to get Knox into an animated film premiere.

Likewise. And I think that Despicable Me 4 is when the magic's going to happen. Let's make it a double date. Double date. Yeah. Let's do it. Let's get... I worry about putting Knox and Alice together while watching a movie. What I want it to be is a closed environment. Like, we don't know anybody here.

But... Oh. I don't know. This is a tricky one. We gotta save this conversation. This is like... This is an episode unto itself. Okay. Let's go back to the Oscars. Sure. So, the telecast. We had some discussion about this with Wesley Morris earlier this week. You know, I heard Bill Simmons and Matt Bellamy talking about this, about the interest level in the show this year. For years, if people have been listening to the show for years, I moaned and whined about the desire to nominate films that people have seen because that usually correlates with an increased attention on the Academy Awards,

higher ratings. We did it. It happened. Barbenheimer. Your test case is here. It's here. And this will be a true test of that theory that I have been suggesting. Even as, you know, the cable bundle has been destroyed and, you know, linear television ratings have gone significantly down and award shows have moved to streaming services. I got the feeling like it's going to be up this year, up from the 18, 19 million we were at last year. But like how up? I don't know. I'm not really sure.

I mean, and how up does it have to be for you to feel vindicated in your years of moaning about how if only they would nominate popular films, then everyone would turn their television back on? Well, I don't live for vindication. So thank you for framing it that way. Did you not? No, I'm a man of ideas. I'm a man of progress. Do you really think that you don't like being right?

No, I do like being right, but I don't need to be vindicated. You know, I don't need to, in the court of public opinion, what I can do is sit quietly inside of my truth. I think that's true for me as well. Okay. And yet here we are talking twice a week for hours into a podcast. Nevertheless, I do think that the show will be up probably, I would guess in the two to three million range, which would be progress for the Academy. And you know, the Academy, the reason this is relevant, of course, is that the Academy needs good ratings

so that their show can continue on in a wide broadcasting environment. Now, maybe that's Netflix long-term, maybe it continues to be ABC over time, but negotiations over the next couple of years are going to come up. And I think that the kind of the long-term state and approachability access to the Academy Awards is really in play. So it might not change next year, it might not change five years from now, but in 10 years, does this award show still exist in the way that we've understood it? It may or it may not. So watching it, I guess, is ultimately relevant to that. The other thing too is, you know, this being invariably the Christopher Nolan Academy Awards, this does happen every 5, 10, 15 years where it becomes clear that, you know, during the Titanic year, that was Jim

Cameron's Oscars. During the Schindler's List year, that was Steven Spielberg's Oscars. During the Departed year, that was Martin Scorsese's Oscars. During the Parasite year, that was Jim Cameron's Oscars. During the Schindler's List year, that was Steven Spielberg's Oscars. During the Departed year, that was Martin Scorsese's Oscars. During the Parasite year, that was Bong Joon-ho's Oscars. That wasn't that clear. It wasn't beforehand, but then in the aftermath,

when we look back at it, we'll see coronation. I mean, won three Oscars. Yeah, absolutely. But it wasn't like people were tuning in being like, okay, this is going to be great. Yes. When Slumdog Millionaire

ran roughshod through the Oscars, did you think of it as Danny Boyle's Oscars? I was like 22. I don't know. What were you doing? Were you drunk that night? Probably. Will you get drunk on Sunday? No, I don't think that that's in the cards for me because I'm a professional. Haven't been drunk on a Sunday in a while, let me tell you. That's just not something I pursue anymore.

I guess I haven't either. That used to be really nice, but you know, the hangover lasts two days now. So. Isn't that brutal? When you wake up on the second day and you can feel the little knot in the back of your brain. You know, it's really tough. It's just, you can't have a drink after 8 p.m. now. That's it. Like 8 p.m. is real caught up. And honestly, 7.30 is a little dicey. You got to slide in at like 5 p.m. I've never related to you more. It's incredible. I feel never related to you more. It's incredible. I feel very close to you by hearing you say that out loud. It makes me feel less crazy to hear that. Jimmy Kimmel will be back as the host of this show. This is his 18th time hosting the show, which is very exciting for him. I think he's going to do great. He always does great. He's

very good at this. I think that he will do great. My only concern is that no one's going to watch his monologue because it's going to start at 7 o'clock instead of 8 o'clock. And you just kind of brushed this off when we talked about it. Speak on it. So the Oscars are starting at 7 p.m. Eastern, not 8 p.m. Eastern.

So I don't know what you guys are doing, what your plans are. The clocks will also roll forward. The clocks will change on Sunday in a way that is advantageous to people who like sunlight at night. We will spring forward. Okay. But does that mean the clocks go forward?

They go forward. They go forward. And you lose an hour. And in the fall, we fall back. Okay. Thank you so much. This is how we remember daylight savings. I want you guys, you don't have the visual, so Sean is doing very exaggerated spring forward yes arm gesture fall back arm gesture as

if i am his two-year-old daughter um how would that make it any different from any other episode that's really true so there's going to be sunlight there's going to be people getting up to their sunday stuff yes but me and you and bobby be in dark rooms watching TVs. Right, but is everyone else going to know at 7 p.m. or 4 p.m. Pacific time? Should I schedule a call with Joe Biden this Friday

to discuss this issue? Yeah, because he's really up on clocks. Will he be awake? Yeah, that he'll remember. I sort of, not to like jump into JMO territory, but I really feel like

there was a whole conversation around daylight savings time a couple years ago in Congress. And they were like passing laws and that just went away. I don't know. It's just gone now? I don't know. I don't.

I think that there was probably a couple of very fervent Congress people who felt that this issue should be tackled. I genuinely agree with them now that I have a child. Which side are you on? I'd like to eradicate the whole premise. I don't want to participate in daylight savings. I know, but like which. Okay. So you want it to just be. I'm comfortable with. Wintericate the whole premise. I don't want to participate in daylight savings. I know, but like which, okay. So you want it to just be winter hours the whole time. Let's spring, no, I'm comfortable with let's spring forward and stay there.

So you're actually fully in favor of daylight savings. You just don't want to, you just want to live in that time zone forever. Correct. Okay. How do you feel about that? I feel great about that. I agree with you. I mean, it's just insanity.

You like, you train your child day in and day out. They're hardwired. And then suddenly the time's just different. Yeah. And they're just like, good morning. It's 3 a.m. I'd like to party. And it's just because someone somewhere in a government office decided, you know, I...

Cut to the hundreds of millions of big picture listeners who are just waiting for us to tell them what's going to win at the Academy Awards. And here we are, once again, discussing Daylight Savings Time. Because people might be enjoying the sunlight they've been waiting for instead of watching Jimmy Kimmel's monologue.

It's very possible. The show, not the red carpet, the show starts at 7 p.m. Eastern, 4 p.m. Pacific. I think this is colossally stupid. I don't know Mountain Time and I'm sorry. Is it one hour? One hour back. 6, 5 p.m. Mountain.

6 p.m. Central. 6 p.m. Central. It's dinner time. It is dinner time. And I'll be eating dinner whilst watching this show. Hopefully they'll be showing clips during this show. Kimmel will be doing his thing. People have soccer games, you know?

What? Basketball games. What are you talking about? People with children. People who? Like people with children older than us. You mean like the NBA?

No. I mean like, you know, a seven-year-old. Well, screw them. I mean, that's not who we're looking for. Well, what about their parents?

We're looking for the fans of Barbie. The fans of Oppenheimer. Right. The fans of Barbie are in many cases seven. That's a good point. You know? And they have to go to basketball and then baton twirling and they don't have time to watch their favorite movie, Lose All Its Girl Era.

The interesting thing about the 7 p.m. start time is historically the show opens with either a best supporting actor or best supporting actress give, you know, award give out. And, you know, this year. to like bring people in it's like we're gonna start with a bang here's a big award someone you know up on stage right away lots of energy lots of enthusiasm lots of tears yes you want to have a moment where it's someone very recognizable getting an award you don't want to give out best you know short doc because that's those are people that people have never seen before. This year, we've obviously got two very locked-in leaders in the clubhouse

for the supporting actor races. We've got Davine Joy Randolph, who's in a movie that a lot of people really like. And we've got Robert Downey Jr., who's one of the biggest movie stars of the last 25 years in Hollywood. They're both almost certainly going to win.

Robert Downey Jr. Wow, spoiler. With an eight people. I'm sorry. I mean, if you zag on either of those, I'll be very impressed. If Robert Downey Jr. with an AP. I'm sorry. I mean, if you zag on either of those, I'll be very impressed. If Robert Downey Jr. Everyone's going to stop

listening to the podcast now. They're like, well, we got two out of 23 picks. No, no. We got, I haven't been this unsure about five or six categories in a while.

So, I'm very interested to have our predictions conversation with you. But, RDJ, under normal circumstances, the APM,

is the no-brainer way to start the show. We do Kimmel's monologue, we do a bit, and then here comes RDJ coming on stage, hopefully with a well-written speech, and, you know, lighting the audience up and getting us excited for Oppenheimer's team role. But if it's at 7 p.m. and people miss it, will people be annoyed by that? I don't know. They might be. They might be. They might also see it on Twitter or social media and be like, oh yeah, the Oscars and then turn it on

and watch the rest of it, which I guess for the Oscars telecast is a win. That is good, yeah. But that sucks for Robert Downey Jr. and I mean,

I guess it doesn't. He got an Oscar. Does he care? I honestly don't know. I feel like he's in a pretty good state in his life at this point. I'm very excited to see

what he does next as an actor though. You know, he's obviously got this new HBO in his life at this point. I'm very excited to see what he does next as an actor, though. You know, he's obviously got this new HBO miniseries, The Sympathizer, coming up later this year. But beyond that, the films that he's making, I'm intrigued by because he has now hit basically all of the checkpoints that you would imagine one should hit as a male movie star starting in the 20th century and emerging into the 21st century successfully. And there's only like seven of them. You know, it's like Cruise, Pitt, Damon, like only a handful of people made it this far. He's there now. Let's do some over-unders before we get into our predictions, okay? Length of the show. The 2023 ceremony was three hours and 37 minutes. Now, I, as you know, I love a long show. Do you think that this show will be longer

or shorter than last year's show? Did Kimmel host last year? He did. Okay. Because I was going to give him credit for being able to keep the train on the tracks and keep things moving. I guess it'll be longer. How long do you think it would be if you had to guess? I mean, not that much longer. Three hours and 42 minutes. I wonder if the decision to go to 7 p.m. was so that they could fill the four-hour time across primetime. Maybe. Maybe. I think it would be bold to just...

I guess we should have looked at our DVRs. You think they're just blocking out the four hours? Well, what, are they going to run an episode of Abbott Elementary at 10.30? That would be weird, wouldn't it? I mean, it would. Shouldn't they just let us talk immediately after the show? Like, shouldn't they just cut to us on ABC? I really, really don't want to do that.

Are you being prevented from talking? Does this have to be on ABC? I need to reach more people and share my feelings about the show. That's what I'm searching for. We will be going live, right? Not live, but we will be recording immediately afterwards. Okay, okay, thank God. All right, I'm stressing.

You feel better now? I do, actually. You just did a WNYC hit live. I did, I did. And you aced it, except for all the times you said offensive things. So, I trust you. I thought I was very restrained

when asked about Austin Butler, okay? I knew my audience. I respect WNYC listeners. And yet you were able to convey somehow a stirring in your loins. That's me. I'm a professional. I think 345 sounds about right. Okay. I said 342, but... Okay. Well, I'm going three over in this game of the price is right. Most wins. I did ask you last

week about whether we thought Oppenheimer would cross the eight and a half threshold. You said no, right? I said no, because I think I counted to eight. Now, I might have gotten to nine here in my predictions. I was thinking, I was wondering if I did that too. I actually didn't count. I didn't either.

Anyway, Oppenheimer will have the most wins. Of the big six or seven nominees for Best Picture and the big films of the year, do you think any of these movies are going to walk away with zero Oscars? Or is there one for everybody? Does Past Lives count as one of the big six or seven? It's right on that edge there. It's the seventh of the seven. Yeah.

So I'm sad to say that I don't think Past Lives is going home with any awards. Damn. Listen, because they don't let me vote you know that's the single reason that's it when do you think they'll add the podcasters branch to the academy is that coming anytime soon who will be in that that branch me you yeah griffin and david wesley wesley well after the response to this week's episode who knows i believe he should be in our podcas's branch forevermore. Amen. Yeah, I don't know.

I guess Past Lives is probably the only one. That may be giving away the game a little bit on my predictions here. But I spread it around a little bit. Yeah. You know, I tried to, because I think that's what the Academy does now. Historically, the Academy used to let movies run the table. And I think Oppenheimer will run the table as much as it possibly can. But now they like, it feels as though, even if it isn't purposeful, it feels as though there is a kind of a sifting of this one goes over here and this one goes over here. And that narrative concretizes over the four months of campaigning and people just decide, well, this is the way I will honor this movie.

No spoilers, but I think there are a couple big contenders who are just barely squeaking through. I'm with you. With one win. I'm with you. So, you know, does,

I don't, again, I don't want to give away the rest of this podcast, but that's as close as I can get to your, to your no wins answer, your shutout.

Do you want to go to predictions? Let's do it. Okay. Bobby's going to keep track of these. We're going to share them on social media. People will be able to follow these along on the night of. Are we going to go to predictions? Let's do it. Okay. Bobby's going to keep track of these. We're going to share them on social media. People will be able to follow these along on the night of. Are we going to do our October predictions?

I think we should do them on Oscar night. So Bob will have those prepared for us. Okay. But we're not even, you don't think we should like pull them up at the end? Do you, have you looked? Do you remember what yours are? Maybe we should do that cold at the end of this. Okay.

All right. And be like, wow, I'm an idiot. Well, that's what you're pursuing. at the end of this. Okay. And be like, wow, I'm an idiot. Well, that's what you're pursuing is audience retention. At the end of this episode, we will reveal the pics that we made on an already recorded and released podcast five months ago. I'm a professional and also audience engagement expert. A data strategist, really, when you think about it. That's the work that you do. Analytics, you're always in those, constantly sending me notes like, oh my God, 19 to 24, why are we so low this week?

And I'm like, Amanda, stop, just make the show. The K in Amanda K. Dobbins stands for KPIs. That's right. Yeah. And the key performance indicator for me on this day will be how many more I get right than you when we do these Oscar predictions. That's always the way. You know, do you think it

matters like or we can be voted off the island no one takes us seriously anyway so it really doesn't matter and also this award not one gifting suite invitation i need some new headphones god damn it you're really bringing it today i I appreciate it. Thank you. Let's start the predictions. The first category is best original score. Here are the nominees. By the way, how did you decide this order? It has a good pace to it, a good flow. Thank you.

I was feeling the flow. But when you said the first category is, the first category in the list of nominations that Sean has ordered. For the best and most interesting podcast execution. I started with original score. In my decision for the best and most interesting podcast execution. Yes. I started with original score. Let's let everyone know we've done our predictions in a separate document. Yes.

So there's an element of surprise. What happens when we match 22 of 23? You will be like, okay, good job. Yeah. I mean, we've discussed this, obviously. The significant number of precursors over the last couple of years has made this a somewhat easier gambit, though, as I said. Five or six of these, I'm really not sure. And they really could go either way.

And there is, of course, always at least one real surprise on Oscar night. So I look forward to that surprise. Best original score, the nominees are, for American Fiction, Laura Cartman. For Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Williams, the most nominated person in Oscar history. Killers of the Flower Moon, Robbie Robertson, the late, great Robbie Robertson, for Oppenheimer, Ludwig Garnson, and for Poor Things, Jerskin Fendrix. Did you know that the composer's name from Poor Things was Jerskin Fendrix? I did not.

Okay. I mean, I did once I read the nominations. You will only hear his name one more time, and that's when his name is announced as a nominee. It will not be winning. So what do you think will win and what do you think should win? I believe that Ludwig Garnson will win for Oppenheimer. And that's a very good score.

So I'm not angry with the will win. Can you hear the music, Amanda? I guess, sort of. Okay. Have you ever had an Oppenheimer moment where sort of like all of the scientific ideas of the world were visualized in a work of art for you or in a work of fiction, or you felt like you were having

a kind of cosmic experience with the world? No, but I have stared directly into the camera a lot and been like, this was a mistake. So... Yeah, by the camera, you mean my eyes. Yeah. Yeah, I agree with you. While Albert Einstein's just like toddling off lost.

That's CR. Like, where am I going? So I think that's a good and deserving win, but I will, for the interest, you know, the sake of interesting podcasting, I think a Robbie Robertson win for Killers of the Flower Moon would be meaningful. And that's a beautiful score that also is doing a lot to not just for the movie but as like the movie of a reflection of Scorsese's work and his work with Scorsese over the years so that would be nice that would be really nice obviously Robertson is not with us to campaign anymore I think in a normal year in a non-steamroller year Robbie Robertson would have a very strong chance to win because posthumous Oscars are, of course, a thing.

They've been awarded before. Robertson has this longstanding partnership with Martin Scorsese that you identified. But Ludwig Robertson, who's already won, who won this award for Black Panther back in 2018, I think holds a kind of, he really is like the new Hans Zimmer. He is the composer of his generation. And the music is such a critical part of the telling of this movie. And he has now this interesting partnership with Nolan, just like he has had with Coogler over the years, that it just feels undeniable. This feels like it was settled a long, long time ago.

So I think he should win as well. And I think he will win. Best original song, your favorite category. Here are the nominees. The Fire Inside, which is from the film Flamin' Hot, and I think he will win. Best original song, your favorite category. Here are the nominees. The Fire Inside, which is from the film Flame and Hot, which I don't think played in movie theaters and only premiered on Hulu. Nevertheless, music and lyrics by Diane Warren. I'm Just Ken, which is from the film Barbie.

Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson, your erstwhile imaginary BF. And Andrew Wyatt. It Never Went Away from American Symphony. Music and lyrics by John Batiste and Dan Wilson. Was a Zay, a song for my people from Killers of the Flower Moon, music and lyrics

by Scott George. And What Was I Made For from Barbie, music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Phineas O'Connell. Just like Best Original Score, Billie Eilish

has won this award before. She won for a James Bond theme. I believe What Was I Made For will win. Yes, I do as well. I will have that as my will win. Yes, I do as well. I will have that as my will win. And you think Diane Warren should get this one? What do you think? Well, of the five

nominees, I feel that I'm Just Ken should win because not only is it a funnier and more memorable song, in my opinion, but it is fit into the narrative of the film as opposed to technically what was I made for starts before the film ends, but it's really at the end and it's just very slow. You know, like a lot of young Billie Eilish people have, have been trying to change my mind on this in what ways, um, in, in kind of saying rude things on the internet as if that would affect me. Okay. And listen, if you guys like ballads, that's on you, you know? And that's how you spend your time. I love when Gen Z Mommy speaks directly to the core demographic. I feel like it betters us all.

I will say my sister-in-law, Ruthie, came over last night and was like, I really like the Billie Eilish song. I don't know what's wrong with you. And I was like, well, Ruthie, you like boring things. But... What a treat it must be to be in your family. What an absolute joy. You know what? Here's the thing. The experience is the same for everyone, you know? Equal opportunity. You want to come into the house, you're going to get the full Amanda. Anyway, what should really win is Dance the Night Away by Dua Lipa, which was not nominated

and which has finally taken over in our home. And my son can say Dua Lipa, except he just says Dula, but loves it. So that's powerful. I also think I'm just Ken should win. Thank you. And it sounds like Ryan Gosling will be performing. How are you feeling about that? Well, I hope all the Kens show up. Okay. You know, I mean, that would be good. What about some new Kens? Like what if Austin Butler showed up as a Ken? I would be absolutely delighted. What about Timmy?

I mean, that would be great. If literally every single man under 50, right? Because Ryan Gosling is a- Under 50? Well, Ryan Gosling is like- You love old men. Ryan Gosling is 40 something. So what do you want?

Under 44? I don't know. Ryan Gosling is 40-something. So what, do you want under 44? I don't know. I haven't checked his age recently. Every living man from Joe Biden on down age-wise will be on stage as Ken. With functioning hips. Okay. Ryan Gosling is 43 years old. Okay. All right.

Wow. Older than me. Yeah. He looks awesome. He does look better than me, for sure. Sure. Whatever age just cycles through and does the ballet. I think that would be great.

I'm looking forward to the ballet. I think it'll be fun. I'm glad that that's happening. I was afraid he was going to be like, I don't know. But you know what? He's got a movie to sell. Yeah. Boy, is he selling it.

He said that Steven Spielberg approached him and said, I love The Fall Guy, which was a great story. And I'm sure it's true. Yeah. I can't wait to see The Fall Guy to find out if I agree with Steven Spielberg. Okay, next category. Best Documentary Short Film. The nominees are The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, and Nai Nai and Waipo.

So, this is your favorite category. You are always talking about how much you love getting into the shorts, you know, digging in, spending time talking to the branch members. I really do. I really value their tastes and their processes. Yep. And I think they're aligned with the values of cinema and the Oscars writ large. So it's a really great, again, another equal opportunity experience, right?

Because just anyone can get their short nominated. It has nothing to do with connections or time. That's the thing is people hear us say like, oh, they should dispense with the shorts. This is not something that should be on the telecast. And they're like, this is an opportunity for people to break through and tell their stories. And in some cases that is true, but in many cases, and I'll give you an example because I think that the ABCs of Book Banning is going to win.

The ABCs of Book Banning is directed by Sheila Nevins, who is a legendary documentary films executive. She ran HBO Docs for decades. She is one of the most decorated executives in the history of Hollywood and television. She has so many Emmys from the amount of docs that she's worked on. It's incredible that

after all those years of doing that work, she has directed a film herself. The film that she has directed is about a very important subject. You and I have young children. We're thinking about this concept all the time.

Young kids are featured in this film. It also does make the very clever choice to just interview children about the books that are banned. And I mean, put kids in front of a camera.

It's about me every time. yeah, it's very charming. I wouldn't say it's like, yeah, it's charming. I wouldn't say it's like. It's not Dune Part 2. Yeah, no, of course not. And my point is, is that I have nothing against Sheila Nevins and if she wins an Academy Award, how wonderful for her.

This is one of the most connected people in all of Hollywood. This is not a 28 year old. Now, in the case of Nine, Nine, and Waipo, which for me is my should win, which is a movie that I really loved, Sean Wang, the director of that movie,

who also had a movie at Sundance called Didi, which was picked up. He is a young filmmaker who is on the rise. It's exciting that he's got a chance to have a big career. I think he's going to have a big career, whether he wins this Oscar or not, because he's already made a feature film. He's already on his way.

So I think when we kind of denigrate the inclusion of these categories, it's because there's a sense of kind of unevenness to the process. It's also, you know, The Barber of Little Rock is a New Yorker production. Island in Between is a New York Times production. My pick, actually, for what will win is The Last Repair Shop, which is produced by the la times and searchlight and it is directed by chris bowers and ben proudfoot ben proudfoot won this exact award in 2021 so once again the best documentary short subject so and by the way like another charming movie about a um a repair shop for the musical instruments in los angeles that are are provided to school students in Los Angeles. And it interviews both the people who repair

and how they wound up in this repair shop. And then the kids being like, now I have a trombone. And once again, you have kids talking about a trombone in front of a camera. Sure, it's lovely. I think all of these movies are well done. I liked all of them. It's the only shorts category where I liked all five films. All five of these

films are available to watch right now, which distinguishes it from the other shorts categories as well. If you want to check them out, as you mentioned, The Last Repair Shop's on Hulu. I think Nine-Nine and Waipo is on Disney+. Island in Between and The Barber of Little Rock are available on YouTube. And the ABCs of Book Banning is available on Paramount+. These are good movies, but in a way, I think you're right. They reveal that this is not quite the breakthrough category that it has been suggested. Now, Best Animated Short Film is also an interesting example of that. There are some...

Now, you're very mad because you haven't seen some of these movies because they don't make them available to you. I have seen three out of the five. Because they were available via streaming. Thank you to people who are enabling the rent function on Vimeo. Right. Your threads homies, did they make you aware of them? No.

You're building quite a reputation on threads. I know. Yeah. It's also threads, mommy. All that girlier and paying off all those expenses you've paid. So we talked about the Kirsten Dunst profile, like very briefly offline, you and I, but then I don't know if you saw my most recent threads post. I'll be honest. I was just like, she looks really cool in these photos. Yeah, she looks really cool. She's wearing a lot of, she's, the Miu Miu is great, but so.

This is Marie Claire. This is, she's on the cover of Marie Claire promoting Civil War. And so in the profile, I've read the profile she picked as like the profile activity. She goes shopping at Nikki Kehoe. Do you know what that is? It's just like the best interior design store, like in Los Angeles. Like had I the resources, I would be asking the people who run Nikki Kehoe to like design my entire life. And I just, she hears this episode, she'll hook you up really, really well. I mean, she was, you know, she was shopping there. They were buying towels. But I'm sure they were nice, expensive hand towels. Anyway, that's the kind of content you can get on threads for me.

That's just a riveting activity to do with a journalist. I got to say. That's up there with F1 racing, mountain climbing. Anytime you can go interior design shopping, you got to do it. You would have liked it. I would have liked it. And also, she's like, I'm a boring mom, so I never get have liked it and also she's like I'm a she's like I'm a boring mom

so I never get to go shopping so that's why I picked this and I was like dope me too who can relate yeah best animated short film

here are the nominees Letter to a Pig 95 Senses Our Uniform Pachyderm War is Over inspired by the music of John and Yoko

so which of these three did you see? I saw Letter to a Pig 95 Senses and Pachyd you see? I saw Letter to a Pig, 95 Senses, and Pack-a-Derm. And then I saw the 14 different trailer clips that the War Is Over team have posted to their warisover.com post. Here, what do we have here? We have the trailer. We've got Origins. We've got the look. We've got something about FX. We've got the sound. We have the trailer. We've got origins. We've got the look. We've got something about FX. We've got the sound. We have multiple, multiple short films about this short film available on

their promotional site, but nowhere can I give them money to watch it. So War Is Over is co-written and produced by Sean Lennon. The film is scored by Thomas Newman. It's a, this is, you know, it's executive produced by Yoko Ono. Yes. Yeah.

Obviously it's inspired by the music of John Lennon. Yeah. I mean, listen, I picked it to win, even though I was only able to watch the little clips. So I, I,

I did see it. Did you do letter? I did think it was good. I did do letter to a pig. You did letter to a pig. I, I absolutely loathe Letter to a Pig. So I understand that that's like the other one in the runner, but I just went with War is Over.

I don't, these categories always flummox me. Sometimes I ace them, sometimes I fail across the board. War is Over won the Annie Short Film Award. So that was another reason. It's got a very strong campaign because it has a lot of power behind it. Letter to a Pig is, I would say it resonates in our contemporary times,

and so that's why I'm choosing it. I didn't really love these five films. I did not either. I don't have a, I refuse to pick a should win. Okay. Best live action short film. Here are the nominees.

The After, Invincible, Night of Fortune, Red, White, and Blue, best live action short film here are the nominees the after invincible night of fortune red white and blue and the wonderful story of henry sugar have you seen all these i did not i was not able to see invincible i don't know if it was taken down or something it was it was at one point available i've seen all five of these invincible i actually. It was my second favorite. It's a Canadian film. And I thought Vincent-René Lortie, who directed the movie, is going to make a good feature film. But you... I liked Night of Fortune. Or I was charmed by it. It held my interest.

Yeah, I liked it as well. This is a pretty interesting category. I think four of the five are very good. And I thought the after was quite bad. As did I. Like stunningly bad. And I couldn't figure... And obviously it stars David Oyelowo, who's a very well-known and well-liked actor but like i really

did not think it was well done at all the first three minutes that i i guess set up the rest of the film but are just so ham-fisted overwrought yeah it's just really not able to pull off what they're trying to go with in the first three minutes what was it so red white and blue is an interesting one. It's technically an abortion mini-drama starring Brittany Snow. And it is a very contemporary kind of a movie

because of a lot of the discussion in the world of politics right now. I think in a year in which Wes Anderson was not nominated, to me, it strikes me as the movie that would win because there's often a very kind of um political political ethical resonance in the shorts I thought it was okay you know there's like a twist and there's a twist in a movie like that

you didn't like the twist no okay um but that's okay the wonderful story of Henry Sugar I mean it certainly should win Wes Anderson finally getting an Oscar. I think there is a chance for a backlash. I do as well. So do you think it will win? I put it for will win. I did too. But we could be wrong.

What was surprising and perplexing to me was that many other predictors had, if they did not go with Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, they went with the after. And I guess that's because it has Netflix behind it. I think it's very widely seen. Yeah. And there is a famous person in it, but there are a lot of famous people in the Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Right. I think Wes is going to win.

I think there's a knowledge that Wes Anderson hasn't won an Academy Award before, and so I think he will win. I agree. And I think he should, obviously. But on the other hand, this film was also funded by Netflix and has a much bigger budget than these other movies, presumably. Again, what are we doing with these awards? I agree. I'm with you. Let's move on.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling. The nominees are Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Society of the Snow. Now, this is one of the categories I really am not sure about. Okay. I think Maestro will win. I also have Maestro and will win. Kazuhiro, one of the most acclaimed makeup artists in recent times. He won for Darkest Hour.

He's profiled beautifully by our friend Juan, the New Yorker. I think the nose controversy weirdly worked for itest Hour. He's profiled beautifully by our friend Juan, the New Yorker. I think the nose controversy weirdly worked for it. Yes. Because there's an awareness of the work that was done in a way that there isn't always in this category.

My should win is Poor Things. My should win is Society of the Snow. Okay. Those guys just looked really grizzled. You know, they were on that mountain

for a long time. And a lot of stuff was growing on them i feel like there's a world in which poor things wins like five to seven academy awards and there's also a world in which it wins like one i think it's probably at like two i think it's obviously a major contender in this category for the willem dafoe and youoe and everything else that's going on. Maestro won the Guild Award, like the Makeup Guild Awards, which in this case to me seems like a little bit more of a precursor. But I mean, spoiler, I guess, this might be the only Maestro Award. I believe this will be the only Maestro Award.

Yeah, I do as well. Though maybe not in my heart. And we'll talk about that. That's beautiful. Maybe not in mine either. I just remembered I had a little twist for you. Best Picture? Maestro? Yeah, how'd you know? Okay, Best Sound.

Interesting category. Yet another category that I just do not know. I have a feeling, but I do not know. The nominees in Best Sound are The Creator, Maestro, My Beloved Mission, Impossible, Dead Reckoning, its first Academy Award nomination, Oppenheimer, and The Zone of Interest.

You know what's really funny is now I'm remembering that I watched The Creator without Sam. On an airplane? On an airplane. You're a demon. Well, I thought it looked good. It does look good. I'm sorry to all these people who worked very hard.

That's a classic. They should have let Tony Gilroy rewrite that movie too because it would have been a great movie. Because it looks and sounds awesome. Yeah. Okay. What do you think we'll win? For robots to be free. You never even heard that.

You only heard it in the trailer. We have ice cream. Okay. Seems like it really made an impression on you. Honestly, like it really made an impression on me. Honestly, that trailer really made an impression on me. I also went back and forth on this. I think I'm going with Oppenheimer. I picked the zone of interest.

You did. So here's what I wrote. I wrote Oppenheimer. I knew we were going to split on this. I think I'm taking a risk. I also, I think I even had zone of interest per first, then I went and was doing all it did again. It won like both sound guild awards, the sound mixing guild and the sound editing. Um, and there is just like sort of a sweep phenomenon to this, but I did write,

could the international voters change anything here? And I think, and I, that's smart. I think, I think it's deserving. My should win is the zone of interest. It is mine as well. But I am just going with Oppenheimer, I guess. Out of, I don't know. I'm just giving in. So then it sounds like you're going to go for nine Academy Awards for Oppenheimer. If you think it's going to win sound.

Well, we'll get there. We'll get there. Let's keep going. Best Cinematography. Speaking of Oppenheimer. The nominees are Edward Lackman for El Conde, Rodrigo Prieto for Killers of the Flower Moon,

Matthew Libetique for Maestro, Hoitaban Hoitama for Oppenheimer, and Robbie Ryan for Poor Things. This is one of the easiest picks of the night. Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer. Yeah.

Hoitaban Hoitama's never won before. He shot this film in black and white and in color in IMAX format and on traditional film. He had to carry around all that. Handheld, stationary. He had to shoot a film that was written in the first person subjective point of view.

He's obviously a master. Should have won for his work on Nope as well. Incredible, incredible, incredible cinematographer. So very exciting that he'd win. A lot of worthy nominees this year. I really like this category. I've really enjoyed Rodrigo Prieto's press tour. He has given some wonderful interviews.

And frankly, I'm a fool for not having him on the show. I feel now having listened to like three interviews, I'm like, why did I not ask this guy who shot Killers of the Far Moon and Barbie in the same year to be on the show? That's on you. Fuck, that's a big mistake. Anyway, Oppenheimer, this is the first to me

of the like no doubter Oppenheimer wins. Yeah. Let's keep going. Another category I am stumped by. Okay. Best Production Design. The nominees for that film are Barbie, production design by Sarah Greenwood and set decoration by Katie Spencer, Killers of the Flower Moon, production design by Jack Fisk, set decoration

by Adam Willis, Napoleon, production design by Arthur Max, set decoration by Ellie Griff. Oppenheimer, production design by Ruth DeJong, set direction by Claire Kaufman. And Poor Things, production design by James Price and Shona Heath, set direction by Zusa Mihilek. Okay. Will win. Poor Things. That's what I picked as well. Yeah.

It won the Art Directors Guild, quote, Fantasy World Award over Barbie. And then Oppenheimer won the period film. Now, historically, the production design award always goes to like a period film. They just, they love it. But I think that Poor Things also counts. It's a fantasy period film. So I think that's what's going to win. What do you think should win? Barbie.

I think Killers of the Flower Moon should win. I feel like this is not even being discussed. Okay. I love the film Killers of the Flower Moon. You know, it's exactly what you're describing. It's a period recreation. It's Jack Fisk's first collaboration with Martin Scorsese. One of the great

production designers of any generation. The film looks amazing. He built an entire town, an entire world. So they did that in Barbie too. It was called Barbie World.

I think Barbie, I think Barbie should get more Oscars. Yeah. You know? Coolest movie, Barbie. Great. Thanks so much. Do you think they should You know? Coolest movie. Barbie. Great. Thanks so much.

Do you think they should add that? Coolest movie? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That would be a good idea. Most outstanding achievement in Girl Era.

Well, no doubt in that one. Obviously. $1.4 billion worth of Girl Era. Yeah. It's incredible. We've never seen so much Girl Era. Best costume design. The nominees are Barbie, Jacqueline Duran, Killers of the Flower Moon, Jacqueline West,

Napoleon, Jante Yates, and Dave Crossman, Oppenheimer, Ellen Marajnik, Poor Things, Holly Waddington. Will win. Poor Things. I agree, Poor Things. Should win, Poor Things. I said should win, Barbie.

This is a showdown of the Jacklins. Yeah. The two beloved, wildly praised, Jacqueline Duran and Jacqueline West, but poor things Holly Waddington. I just, there was an imagination in Poor Things where Barbie has a lot of references. And I guess that's true for production design as well.

And they, and, but, Poor Things just looked so great. And all of Emma Stone's clothes were very communicative of the character. Have you ever considered doing that hairstyle that she has where she has like really long down the back and dying a jet black? Yeah. Have you ever considered that? I haven't. Is your hair getting shorter as you get older or longer?

I'm really going back and forth with it. What do you think is the right move? I mean, I don't know. Like sometimes I really feel like I'm in a, I just need to and forth with it. What do you think is the right move? I mean, I don't know. Like, sometimes I really feel like I'm in a, I just need to get rid of it. And then right now I'm growing it out. Thanks for asking. Have you ever had it really short?

Yeah, I did in college, actually. Really? Yeah, sort of like the, it was fine, you know. I mean, it was, maintenance-wise, very easy. So that was nice. And I've had it very long. And right now, you you know it does become sort of existential

because you don't if your hair is too short then you feel like you have mom hair you know and I really don't want to have mom hair before

even though I am a mom what? but it's like that's not how I want to think of myself so right now I'm growing it out. I've had an idea.

Yeah. Assuming this planet is still rotating on its axis, next year when we do our pre-pre-Oscar predictions, here's what we'll put on the line. The loser, the person with the fewest matches in terms of nominees and winners on our point system has to shave their head. No. Just think about it. No. Just think about it.

No. Just sleep on it one night? The way you would sleep on your bed of hair? No. Just think about it. That honestly seems like a lot of maintenance also, right?

Shaving your head? Yeah, because you have to upkeep it. I'm doing the opposite right now. I'm refusing to get my hair cut until Damien Chazelle's next movie gets made. Might be a while based on the reports. I'm just going to grow it out all the way to the ground.

You might have a Dobbins-esque mane at that point because. But that'd be cool though. It'd be for a political purpose. Well, I mean, yeah. In the politics of Hollywood, whether he can get 40 or $80 million. Yeah, it is. I wish Damien well. He's been doing some press and he seems a little sad.

Yeah. But you know what? We're going to be there. Babylon Watch Along coming to you very soon. This month. Cannot wait. Cannot wait to revisit

that majestic film. I just got so tired. It's just really mean-spirited. Okay, so costume design, you said poor things, I said poor things. We both, you think I think poor things should win

and I think Barbie should win. Okay, best visual effects. Now you have seen the film, The Creator, which is of course nominated here, as is Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3, your favorite movie of 2023, Mission Impossible, Dead Reckoning, and Napoleon. They just like had to torture animals for an hour for no fucking reason. It was awful. I mean, it was for a reason. There was a narrative logic to the decision.

Well, I thought it was upsetting, but I did think like that blob planet looked pretty cool. Did you see that Superman Legacy has been retitled Superman? What do you think about that choice? Who is that person that they made Superman? David Cornsweat? Who? He is one of the co-stars of the film Pearl starring Mia Goth. Okay. He was very good in Pearl. Great. And I think he's actually a pretty good choice for Superman. I could be proven wrong.

Well, that's great. I haven't seen this film yet. Him and Rachel Brosnahan? I think he was also one of the stars of Ryan Murphy's Netflix show Hollywood. Okay. Do you remember that? I do remember it because it filmed on Sunset Gower. Oh, right.

When we were still working there, yeah. I think he's, yeah, wow, Sunset Gower. Those were the days. What's going to win Best Visual Effects? Godzilla Minus One. That's what I picked too. Yeah, isn't that exciting?

I don't feel good about this prediction. Well, why not? Well, the creators won some precursors. I think the creator would be a very worthy

winner, personally. Again, I think the work in all five of these movies is very good. I think they're all worthy. Godzilla Minus One would be a similar representation, the way that the Zone of Interest winning in sound would be, that there would be an international group of people. That's kind of what is shifting me over. And there's just, I mean, there has been a real campaign for that.

It's a feel-good story. I understand that all the guild things went to the creator, but everyone else is just like, oh, Godzilla Minus One, that looks pretty good. I like that. It sounds like they've done an excellent job campaigning the movie. Yeah. So, given that, a very tentative

Godzilla Minus One. It would be a nice moment. Obviously, an excellent movie. We talked about it on the pod. Okay, best film editing. Next category. The nominees are Laurent Senechal for Anatomy of a Fall, Kevin Tent for The Holdovers,

Thelma Schoonmaker for Killers of the Flower Moon, Jennifer Lame for Oppenheimer, and Yorgos Mavropsaridis for Poor Things. Jennifer Lame for Oppenheimer. And she should win too. The pacing and the choices

in the editing of that movie are one of the most exciting things about it. Had the good fortune of having Jennifer Lame on the show and we talked about Oppenheimer. I just want to read Jennifer Lame's filmography very briefly. One of my favorite things to do, of course. Let's just go from 20...

Can I have a snack? 2012. Let's start in 2012 Oh my god Let's start with the film Francis Ha And then following it up With another Noah Baumbach film

While We're Young Paper Towns Mistress America De Palma God I love De Palma The documentary De Palma A feat of editing Manchester by the Sea

The Meyerowitz Stories Hereditary Midsommar Marriage Story Tenet Judas and the Black Messiah Blonde Wah wah Black Panther Wakanda Forever, and Oppenheimer. That's quite a CV.

Yeah. For a film editor. So this will be her crowning achievement because she's definitely going to win in this category. I also think she should win as well. All right. Next category. Best International Feature Film. See, that's the thing with this race.

And maybe this is true every year. But I'm like, five of these, I have no idea. And then another seven of these, they've just been over for months. This is one of them that's been over for months. So Best International Feature, the nominees are Ayo Kapitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teacher's Lounge, and The Zone of Interest. I finally saw The Teacher's Lounge? I don't really get, I don't get why this movie's nominated. Say more.

Well, it's the German submission. Ilker Katak is the filmmaker. I think there's a really good performance by Leonie Benesh in this movie, but it's a movie about a teacher who finds herself in the midst of like a controversy about theft inside of a school. And the movie is very obviously, it's kind of moral parable about, you know, how we negotiate our day-to-day and our interactions with people, the way that we are like divided by certain choices in the world and come together in certain ways, how we negotiate our day-to-day and our interactions with people,

the way that we are divided by certain choices in the world and come together in certain ways, the kind of fractious nature of our contemporary life. And it's just really overwritten and really overmanaged and overstaged. And I don't know,

it just felt very like my first play. You know, when you're watching someone who's... You sound like me right now. Well, I just... There were a lot of really good international films this year and the short list is rippling

with quality films you know we talked about The Taste of Things The Monk and the Gun there's a bunch of movies that could have been nominated here

and this just felt like the kind of movie that gets people being like well who do you think did it at the end of the movie and so I was kind of disappointed I was hoping to like it

but it didn't really work for me. The other four nominees are pretty good. Perfect Days and Zone of Interest are my faves on this list. The Zone of Interest will win. Undoubtedly. Yeah. And it should win too. I agree.

It's a masterpiece. Okay. That's the first category, by the way, that was in the Oscars Big Bet. So I don't know how you guys want to handle that. Do you want to go back to it at the end? Or do you want me to tell you in real time what you think? Yeah, let's do it at the very end. Okay. You to tell you in real time what you did yeah let's do it at the very end

okay you can tell us how we fucked that up because I'm sure we did I just saw the teacher's lounge this week so there's no way

I was like teacher's lounge maybe I did get teacher's lounge did I get it no you did not did I get it Bob you did not

no you chose the taste of things which wasn't even nominated yeah we were on both this

and documentary we were like in the wilderness. That's all I remember. Well, an elegant segue to best documentary feature. Here are the nominees. Bobi Wine, The People's President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, and 20 Days in Mariupol.

I talked about 20 Days in Mariupol in the press box last week. And we talked a little bit about it a few weeks ago. I think it will win. I think it should win i think it is an extraordinary work of journalism um as i said like at at times unwatchable because of what it portrays which is our real things that happened um i think it would be really significant for this movie to win and for like like, if even 5,000 more people see it as a result, but. Couldn't have said it better.

Yeah. I agree across the board. I think it will win and it should win. Best animated feature. Here we go. Here are the nominees. The Boy and the Heron. Nimona.

I watched that. Robot Dreams. You know, I'm realizing now I forgot to watch that. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse. I saw that. And Elemental. I also saw that. I have watched. And Elemental. I also saw that.

I have watched Robot Dreams. Yeah. I liked it. Okay. What were the dreams of the robots? Was it to be free? In a manner of speaking, it's really more to have a friend. To have a companionship.

Okay. It's a silent film. There's no dialogue in the film. There's music, but there's no dialogue in the film there's music but there's no dialogue it's about a dog and who um is a lonely dog and is looking for kind of companionship as well and and finds a robot and you'd think this is so strange he basically buys a robot to be his friend but then they form this beautiful bond i thought it was very good i liked it quite a bit it's coming out it's being released by neon i think in may i would recommend the movie

it's a bit it was surprising to me that it was nominated here because it is so little seen but there's obviously admiration in the branch for the movie this is a race between the boy and the heron and spider-man across the spider-verse what do you think is going to win i really don't know i so spider-man well spider-man across the spider-se also won at the Annie's. That's why I chose Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse. And so I did. I have it in Will Wynn, and you can look at the doc.

You know, again, I think there's a huge amount of respect for Miyazaki and Boy in the Heron. And does the international reach kind of overcome the deep connections to everything in Hollywood that Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse has? It seems possible. It's definitely possible. If I'm choosing the zone of interest and best sound, I feel like I should be choosing The Boy and the Heron in a way because of our sense that the international segment of the Academy is represented. On the flip side, you know, Spider-Man, the previous Spider-Man Spider-Verse movie won Best Animated Feature. Miyazaki's also won

Best Feature. He won Spirited Away 20 years ago. Did not show up to the ceremony to accept his award. I'm not sure what the reason for that is.

I'm sure there was a very good reason. It might have been that he hates the Academy. It also might have been that he had a cold that day. I don't know. I wonder if that affects

the desire to award him something here. I'm not really sure. I also think that there was a narrative leading up to the release of The Boy and the Heron that this would be

his last film and now it seems like it will not be. It seems like he's going to make another movie. I don't know if that meaningfully affects the voting or not.

Just throwing it out there. No, you don't think so, Bobby? I'm laughing that it's not his last movie. The man just cannot walk away. He just can't do it. The last five movies have been his last movie.

Yeah, I know. He can't stop. He can can't do it. The last five movies have been his last movie. Yeah, I know. He just can't stop. He can't stop telling stories about little kids who lose their mother and go through incredible pain. You know, he just wants to keep doing it. You know, it's a lifestyle. It's a lifestyle. You know, if people haven't read his autobiographies, I want to recommend those too. There's two parts.

Starting Point is the first one. Such a great book. Anyway, I think Spider-Verse should win as well. Wow. Spider-Verse was my second favorite movie of the year. So I think The Boy in the Heron

is a big achievement. It's good to stand with your convictions. But, you know, I think Spider-Verse is a major, major, major achievement. And it's not to take

anything away from Miyazaki, who of course I love. What do you think should win? I have Boy in the Heron written down here just, I think, to split my vote, you know? Okay. Like my own... Just to be interesting on the ballot? written down here just, I think, to split my vote, you know?

Okay. Like my own. Just to be interesting on the ballot? Well, because they're so close, I was like, well, I'll say Spider-Man will win and Boy and the Heron should win, you know? And then maybe I've covered all my bases. Very good. Now we go to the big categories. The big eight.

You ready? I'm ready. You feel like these are all pretty much settled? No. There's one that I'm really not sure about and then a couple that could surprise me and then four that are just absolute lux we start with best adapted screenplay the nominees for best adapted screenplay cord jefferson for american fiction which is based on the novel erasure by percival everett greta gerwig and noah bomback for barbie which is based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for Barbie,

which is based on the characters created by Ruth Handler. Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, based on the biography American Prometheus, The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin. Tony McNamara for Poor Things, based on the novel by Alasdair Gray. And Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interestest based on the novel by Martin Amis. I had said a couple of weeks ago that I was like, oh, it does actually kind of seem like American fiction is picking up a lot of steam.

And even more than I had ever imagined, I feel like it just got locked into this spot. BAFTA's Independent Spirit Awards and won the USC Scripter Award. I have it as well and will win. Which is quite fascinating. I mean,

it's wonderful for Kord, you know, who's, you know, it's great and I like that movie a lot. It is a bit surprising because this is the movie

that Christopher Nolan has been campaigning, the award that Christopher Nolan's been campaigning the hardest for in the last few months because it's the one that has been,

I think, the hardest to secure for Oppenheimer. He's done a lot of press about the screenplay itself and he's on interviews with Kai Bird to talk about adaptation and honestly, I think it's an amazing work of adaptation. My should win is Oppenheimer. He's done a lot of press about the screenplay itself and he's on interviews with Kai Bird to talk about adaptation.

And honestly, I think it's an amazing work of adaptation. My should win is Oppenheimer and that's nothing against American fiction or any of these movies. I think this is

a strong category. But the Oppenheimer story is really hard. I know you take some issue with the structure and the execution of the story, so you probably don't have it

in should win. What do you think is your should win? A senator from Massachusetts. His name is Kennedy. It's a banger. It's a great moment. We love to stand and applaud when we hear that.

Maybe I trip on that because Alden Ehrenreich is doing, like, young millennial energy. It's an overt homage to JFK, which is a significant inspiration on the movie. That's why it's in there. But, like, the way that he's delivering it, it's really stupid. So you're out on him? Alden Ehrenreich? No, I thought he was good in Fair Play. Okay.

What about Solo? That didn't work. What about Rules Don't Apply? Still haven't seen it. Your favorite film, I know. Watch Along. Watch Along incoming. Rules Don't Apply, Watch Along?

That will be our highest rated episode ever. Should we invite Warren? Oh my God, I welcome him with open arms. Me, you, Warren, and Annette, and we watch Rules Don't Apply. Honestly, it seems like a great time. I was on a flight with Annette Bening once, and she was just cozied up with her Kindle, reading stuff in her cool glasses and being very kind to everyone, and I was like, that's my girl. Really one of the better stories you've ever told on this pod.

I was on a plane with a person once. She had a Kindle. I was on a plane with John Carpenter once. That was cool. Did he have a Kindle? No, he slept. Yeah, goddamn right. I would imagine only playing video games or sleeping from Carpenter.

That seems to be his energy these days. I think Barbie should win. Sure, of course. I don't think it should be in this category, but I also don't really care that much. And I do think this script and the entire this is what we're going to do is astonishing from Barbie. It is the act that then creates the whole movie, which was a sensation. I also think that Killer of the Flower Moon should have been nominated

in this category, and that also would have been a should win for me. I think that's a really fascinating and inventive actual work of adaptation. And the choices that they make really worked for me. I know that they didn't for some people. And you guys were big mad, but that's

the fun of art. I'm with you. Best original screenplay. The nominees are Justin Trie and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall, David Hemmingsen for The Holdovers, Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer for Maestro, Sammy Birch for May December with a story by Sammy Birch and Alex Mechanic,

and Celine Song for Past Lives. I believe Anatomy of a Fall will win. As do I. I'd like to see May December get a win here, personally. The only nomination. I'd Anatomy of a Fall will win. As do I. I'd like to see May December get a win here personally. The only nomination. I'd like to see Celine Zong get a win here.

You know, that seems like, but also, I did like Anatomy of a Fall. You know, Brave. You're so brave. Well, Wesley validating some of my notes

made me feel strong and powerful. Okay. But I also didn't hate it like he did. I thought it was pretty good. I still also, I just need them to have this steel drum performance of P.I.M.P. at the Oscars.

I just don't, what I don't understand, I think sometimes, here's what I think happens sometimes, and I'm not accusing Wesley specifically of this, but when a movie gets nominated for Best Picture or gets nominated for Best Screenplay, it confers a sense of importance to the film. But Anatomy of a Fall is a borderline satire.

And if you look at Justin Trillet's other films, she works in a kind of like straight-faced comic mode, that that is like purposeful on her part. So the movie being quote-unquote ridiculous which is part of the conversation we were having is on purpose like it's not a mistake that this is like overheated french court scenes that the use of the 50 cent song that the like incredibly chaotic nature of that fight between this couple that is in the flashback i mean you know the like the shining quality of the little kid like i feel like that's all the residue of design, you know? Yeah, the residue of the design of the movie. So to me, I like that a movie that has that kind of tone and tenor is being celebrated in this way.

May, December to me is very similar. There's a kind of archness to May, December that I find very amusing. Past lives, less so. Past lives, very, you know. Sincere. Straightforward kind of a storytelling. Emotional kind of a storytelling um emotional kind of a storytelling maestro um it's a wild ride it is a wild ride they did give us snoopy in the vestibule

they did and for that we will always appreciate them the next category is best actress in a supporting role in this category is very boring to talk about the nominees are emily blunt as kitty oppenheimer in Oppenheimer, Daniel Brooks in The Color Purple as Sophia, America Ferreira as Gloria in Barbie, Jodie Foster as Bonnie Stoll in Nyad, and Davine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. Davine Joy Randolph. Will win. Do you believe she should win? Yeah, I thought she was wonderful. And I don't know who else I'm picking in this. I did quite enjoy Jodie Foster. I'm not, I don't think she was better than Dave. I'm actually not picking. I watched it and I was

like, wow, Jodie Foster is going to get an Oscar nomination for this. Yeah. But I don't think she should win. Yeah. This is just one of those things where it just has not been interesting to have a discussion about this for a long, long time. It's okay. I have enjoyed all of her speeches. She writes all of them ahead of time and they're're very thoughtful and moving, and I'm a big fan. Would have liked to have seen Julianne Moore in this category. That's just me. Okay. Would have happily swapped out America for her personally, but nevertheless. Next category, best actor in a supporting role. Here are the nominees. Sterling K. Brown for

American Fiction as Cliff Ellison. Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon as William King Hale. Robert Downey Jr. and Oppenheimer as Louis Strauss. Ryan Gosling and Barbie as Ken and Mark Ruffalo and Poor Things as Duncan Wetterburn. Congratulations to Robert Downey Jr. I agree. He will win. I put down Mark Ruffalo for Should Win just to have some fun. I put down Ryan Gosling just to speak my truth.

I think all great nominees. This is a great category. This is often a great category. There's a lot of good, fun parts written for men historically. But this one is particularly fun. And I enjoyed the Sterling K. Brown nomination. Okay, we're getting down to the nitty gritty here. Best actor in a leading role.

The nominees are Bradley Cooper in Maestro as Leonard Bernstein, Coleman Domingo in Rustin as Bayard Rustin, Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers as Paul Hunnam, Killian Murphy in Oppenheimer as J. Robert Oppenheimer, and Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction as Thelonious Monk Ellison. We'll win. Killian Murphy. We agree on that, Killian Murphy.

Kind of cinched this with the SAG win a few weeks back. All the Giamatti heads have been tamed. Yeah. They've been stifled. This could be one of those surprises. I think there's a chance that when we look back, Paul Giamatti comes out of nowhere to win this. I don't think it's going to happen.

I'm not predicting that it's going to happen, but I think it's plausible. Sure. Yeah, yeah, yeah. How would you feel if I said should win Bradley Cooper? So I'm open to this. I do yeah, yeah. How would you feel if I said should win Bradley Cooper? So I'm open to this. I do like that performance. I do too.

I really like that performance. And I almost nominated Bradley Cooper for our Glenn Close Memorial It's Time Award. But the thing is, is that I don't actually think we can give him the Oscar if we want him to keep performing at this level. See, I'm going the other way. I'm glad you said it exactly that way. Because I need him to be done with this, and I need him to just start making movies like Gerard Butler movies. We got to get a gun back in his hands. This is where the art begins, you know?

Like, we are just at the start of our journey with Bradley Cooper. And I mean that on screen and off screen, like, did you even think that we would reach? I didn't. And I have been monitoring this situation since day one. I saw him on arena shakes, Instagram during the strike.

I saw him with his cheese. Day one. I've been down since alias. What do you mean? I know, but just in terms of like, this is going to get weird and this is going to be for this, this campaign. I was like, this is, this is going to be something to this is going to be a- Oh, you mean for this cycle? This campaign.

I was like, this is going to be something to see. Yeah. It's far exceeded my expectations. Me too. And I just, and I can't believe it. And we're all in a psychodrama together, you know? And it's like part of my ultimate critique of Maestro is that to the extent that that is a psychodrama of Bradley Cooper's that we're all trapped in, like it didn't go far enough. And so we can't give him the Oscar because we need him

to keep going. We're less than six years away from Bradley Cooper sauntering into an FBI conference room talking about how he's going to capture the mule in the film The Mule. Like we had great shit coming from that guy. Now, I like Maestro. I really liked him in Nightmare Alley. He was also a raccoon in this year.

So it's not like it's preventing the other stuff. Another fucking category that I forgot about. Best voice acting. Why don't we have that at the Academy Awards? God damn it.

It's not preventing him from doing the things that he was doing. He's just doing more. And it's cruel, you know, in terms, it's not my humanitarian impulse that says we have to withhold this to get more from him,

but we have to withhold this to get more from him. I mean, where does he have to go from here? Like, Jesus? Who knows? Who can he play? But we, like, that's what I'm saying. We've passed the point. I mean, Jesus, right?

You should literally play Jesus. That would be awesome. We have passed the point that you and I can imagine it. And that's where greatness begins. I think he should play both Jesus and Moses in a film. And he should wear a prosthetic nose. I think that would be great. I think he should have gotten an Oscar for licorice pizza, man.

That would have been a great way to solve that problem. Just give him a supporting actor Oscar. We're not solving a problem. We're fueling genius. Okay. I'm just going to put Bradley Cooper on the board just because I want. I'm just trying to stoke a reaction. I'm putting, should win, Cillian Murphy.

Wow. He was very good. Wow. What? Well, that movie would have been a lot worse without him. Yeah, I mean, he does a lot to sell that movie. What if it was Ryan Gosling is Oppenheimer? Would it have worked?

No. You don't think so? No. What if it was Robert De Niro is Oppenheimer? He's just like, winking to the side and being like, hey guys, we found this plutonium or whatever the hell the marbles are. Uranium? I don't know.

How are they building it? Why don't you revisit the film? Then you can find out. How many times have you seen it? Twice. Plus, I watched half of it at home. christopher nolan wanted me to why did you do that because i put the trinity test as one of my best sequences of the year which it was because i am a person of discerning taste and so then i re-watched it and i was like yeah this rocks josh hartnett as abenheimer uh perhaps a little bit too

handsome and exterior too tall good point bobby too tall uh okay let's go to best actress okay best actress in a leading role annette benning and niad as diana niad lily gladstone and killers of the flower moon as molly burkhart sandra huler in anatomy of a fall as sandra voyter this is a tight one tight very tight did you see that Sandra Huler got that Phoebe Philo deal oh wow good for her

yeah it went up today that's excellent I mean it's like it's perfect it looks so good I assume she'll well I guess I don't know whether like Phoebe Philo

is dressing people for the red carpet but I'm sure she has. Yeah, but anyway, that's just great stuff. And that speaks to her continued appeal. Kirsten Dunst, again, in that Marie Claire profile, was just like, just love that Sondra Huller. So I'm wondering whether...

There's a case for this. So there's a case. This is an interesting thing to discuss. So let's talk about it right because uh conventional wisdom would suggest that this is a race between lily gladstone and uh emma stone who have split they both won at the golden globes in comedy and and drama respectively emma stone won critics choice lily gladstone won sag awards so there is kind of like a theory that and emma won bafta and emma won bafta um so they could split the vote and then sandra huler comes and won SAG Awards. So there is kind of like a theory that... And Emma won BAFTA.

And Emma won BAFTA. So they could split the vote and then Sandra Huller comes through on the international voters. Let me try this out for you. Emma Stone and Sandra Huller split votes

and Lily Gladstone comes through. Well, I do think that that is that is the expectation. That's my expectation. That's my expectation as well. And I've chosen Lily Gladstone. As have I. The SAG Awards and honestly the reception in the room at the SAG Awards that is the expectation. That's my expectation. That's my expectation as well. And I've chosen Lily Gladstone. As have I.

The SAG Awards and honestly the reception in the room at the SAG Awards, and not just for Memma Stone, but just that room lit up in a way that was very noticeable. You know, I wrote down here, I wrote down Lily Gladstone will win. We're aligned on that. Yeah. I wrote down should win Lily Gladstone,

but I wonder if it's, I feel like Sandra Huller is my should win now that I'm really turning it over in my mind. I think that's totally valid. I think Lily Gladstone should win. This is a little bit of vote from the heart as well as a mathematical analysis of precursors. Obviously, I love her in that film. I think that some of the criticism is worth exploring about whether or not this is actually a lead performance because of the necessary nature of her being removed from certain aspects of the story. I do think that, I think in some ways, even if she wins, it's a weirdly underrated performance. I've had people say to me, like, what was she really doing?

But there's like an interplay with her and Leo that I think is essential to understand, for me, understanding their relationship. Like some people seem to have struggled with the idea that she would be interested in him. Right. But not fully understanding. And she's talked about this. She spoke about this very smartly on WTF when she was on that show. About how there was a need to create like a sense of domesticity between guardians and the people who owned this property and land at this time in America. And that that in some ways like breeds a kind of

connectedness when you spend all this time with people, invariably, like you become closer in certain ways and drawn apart in other ways. I thought that really came across like the, both the obsession and passion and also the strain of a marriage between these two people who seemingly come from different worlds, but have something, some sort of fire between them from that first time they meet in the car to that incredible dinner sequence that they have where they're seducing each other so interestingly to all the way through the kind of pain and anxiety of her having to receive the medication and him poisoning her and not almost totally not fully grasping what it is that he's doing and what the what the extent of the way that he's hurting her and the way that she's not fully

grasping what he's doing to her. All of that, like, I think is fully conveyed. Or the question of, do they both understand more than they give on and are trying to, like, look past it and the complexity of that sort of thing. Which is something that happens in marriages. I mean, there are, like, there are unspoken things in marriages

where people are like, you're like this and I'm like this and we are just trying to, like, push through our life together. So I thought that was really sophisticated stuff. There's this rumor that Paul Thomas Anderson rewrote this movie. We haven't really talked about that rumor.

I'll tell you what, I don't know if that's true or not true. If it's true, that's something he's really good at writing about. He's written about that exact idea, the kind of unspokenness and the complexity of emotional relationships so well. So all's to say,

I think she's really good in that part. I think it's a really evolved reading of that character. It's just not really, to me, I think she's really good in that part. I think it's a really evolved reading of that character. It's just not really, to me, I think, ultimately a lead performance. I think that the movie is on Ernest's shoulders

and it stays on his shoulders the entire time. I'm not dinging it for that because this is all politics. We saw it with Michelle Williams last year. I know that she has like an emotional weight

that she carries through the film. So I get the arguments. Like, I'm not fighting with anybody about it. It just, when I really get down to it, like Anatomy of a Vault is on Sandra Holler's shoulders. Like she is the center of the movie. So maybe this is just me justifying my should win, which doesn't really matter that much. But I'm just going to put it all on the table.

Yeah. I don't really care as much about category fraud as certainly as Wesley and as also you. Because, again, this is all made up. And I think that the clock is sort of a facile way of measuring whose movie it is. And the way that both she as a performance really not just stands up to, but in a lot of cases overpowers Leo, but also how the movie is making a lot of storytelling decisions that I think are very important and that are about trying to keep that character

in the center of the frame, even when for literal factual reasons of she's really sick because she's being poisoned for a third of the film, she can't actually be. And I think that there is just something thematically about like that actually is a lead character according to what the film is about and what the film is trying to do and say she's i think she's a dynamic character who pushes the story along like she's the person who goes to washington dc to make change like she has a kind of agency in the movie it's not just a

runtime thing i just one of those things where the movie shifts its focus so many times. But the one thing that never shifts is Ernest at the center of it. So that's just what's at the top of my mind.

Nevertheless, it doesn't really matter. I think she's going to win. If she doesn't win, it probably means Emma Stone gets two of these in a very short period of time in her career,

which would really be quite something. It's very rare. And then I think sets her on a kind of like Meryl Streep, Katharine Hepburn kind of trajectory here in her career, which is quite extraordinary. She's also having quite an interesting year as a producer too. We can maybe talk about that in a future episode,

but I've now seen a couple of movies that she's produced this year with her partner, Dave, and they're all really interesting and signals. I don't know. I'm trying to think of what's a good historical comp for what she's up to there's obviously not a lot of women

Margot Robbie is doing this right now too putting their names on movies basically getting movies made by interesting young filmmakers so I just really appreciate

that she's doing that at a time when it's harder and harder to get stuff made okay best director you ready the nominees are for Anatomy of a Fall

Justin Trillet for Kill is the Flower Moon Martin Scorsese for Oppenheimer Christopher Nolan for Poor Things Yorgos Lanth nominees are for Anatomy of a Fall, Justin Trillet, for Kill is the Flower Moon, Martin Scorsese, for Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan, for Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos, and for The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glaser. Congratulations to Christopher Nolan. Yeah, he's going to win.

Yeah. He's definitely going to win. If he doesn't win, it'll be surprising. If he doesn't win, it'll probably be Jonathan Glaser. Yeah. I wrote Jonathan Glaser down for should win. Okay. But only because I'm like Oppenheimer's got a lot of Oscars.

I don't want to take anything away from Christopher Nolan. I wrote Martin Scorsese down for should win because he's Martin Scorsese. Also a great pick. And I thought that movie was a masterpiece. Good filmmaker. Like his stuff. Next category, best picture. This is our last category that we're talking about here.

The nominees are American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, Will Win, Oppenheimer, Correct. Should Win, Oppenheimer. Oh. Yeah. Here's why. Okay.

Set aside my favorite movies of the year thing that I was talking about before. I think this is the job of the Academy Awards. Great. I think that this is what this show is supposed to do. I don't think, there's no subjective truth about what is the greatest film, but this film,

this award show, needs to platform movies that people know, like, and understand as much as it needs to help us discover things we don't know about. And when we have a year where those things converge, artistry, the desire to see it on a grand scale, future of the industry, kind of got to step up and award it. Now, you could do the same for Barbie.

Not against that. Didn't like Barbie as much as I liked Oppenheimer. But I think this is what this award show's purpose ultimately is. Okay. I think that Killers of the Flower Moon should win because I thought it was the best film of last year. Okay. And that's where I am. Let's award our greatest living artists making some of their greatest work.

I get it. In my PGA ballot. That's fine. On my PGA ballot, Killers of the Flower Moon was my number one choice. Oh, it was. Okay. I'm thinking differently about should win here. Okay.

Can we talk about your rock and roll ballot for a second? You're not voting for Mariah Carey? I think she'll be back. That's what, that was my thinking. I mean, a lot of this stuff is strategy. People are like, how dare you not vote for this person? Everybody just relax, you know. I'm a man of specific taste. How dare you not vote for Mariah Carey? Like, honestly, how dare you come into

the studio and sit in front of me and be like, strategically, it was not important to me. I thought it was more important to get a vote for Mary J. Blige. Okay. And important to get a vote for Sinead O'Connor, because I think both of them will be off the ballot if they don't get enough support. Mariah Carey will be back.

Mariah Carey is Elvis Presley. She's one of the most successful musicians in the history of America. Okay. She'll be back if she doesn't make it this time. Okay. So, I mean, to me, my passion votes were, you know, more about Tribe Called Quest and, you know, Eric B. and Rakim. Those are the ones that I really want to fight for.

Okay. Could you make the case that Sade, Mary J. Blige, Sinead O'Connor, Mariah Carey, and Ozzy Osbourne all should have been represented on my ballot? Sure. Do I really care? No. Do I think it's fascinating when people get super mad about it? Of course. That's why I do it.

That's why I've been sharing it for years. Thanks. Yeah. You can look in the archives. I remember every year. Yeah. I'm why I've been sharing it for years. Thanks. Yeah. You can look in the archives. I remember every year. Yeah. I'm like, oh, it's this again. And just to circle the square here, I'm always vindicated.

You know, I'm always proven to be a man of rightness. Okay. That's cool. Congratulations. How many of these do we differ on? Two or three. Well, at least two short films on will win and sound

are those the only three we differed on should win a lot but will win as always only differed on three this is the problem precursors and the betting markets it makes it too easy

even if we're wrong it makes it too easy to do this predictions game when we first started doing this when I first started doing this with Cousin Sal in like 2016, it was not as calcified

as it is right now. I don't know how to make change, but I want it to be more fun. Okay. Should we look at all the things we got really wrong from October? Yeah, we should. That might be fun.

Okay. Okay, so we called this the Big Oscar Bet all the way back on October 27th, my beautiful wife's birthday. Let's just talk about a few of the categories because I think going through every single category is going to be a lot here to figure out like what we nailed and didn't nail. But what we did was we predicted the nominees and the potential winner. So for best picture, we both got, I believe, 9 out of 10 right. You chose all correctly except for all of us strangers.

And I chose all correctly except for Spider-Man across the Spider-Verse. The one film that we missed was what? You missed Zone of Interest. I got that. And you missed Anatomy of a Fall. I got that. You got that. That's very interesting.

So even all the way back in October, pretty darn close. In Best Director... We both... We both went for Bradley Cooper and Greta Gerwig. Yeah. Neither of which came true. And the two international filmmakers did come through here. Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer.

We both picked Christopher Nolanzer we both picked christopher noel we both picked oppenheimer to win as well so we're doing all right there this was a wild choice by me i was trying purposely was trying to make a wild choice that that's never really shook out but in best actor well you got you got four out of five i did get four out of five i had leo as well as andrew scott and my best actor no i had leo as well i had leo and andrew scott as well oh yeah we both had le Scott as well. Oh, okay. We both had Leo and Andrew Scott. Okay.

But we got Bradley Cooper, Killian Murphy, and Jeffrey Wright correct. But I picked Jeffrey Wright to win. That's obviously going to work against me. Right. You picked Killian Murphy, which seems like it's where things are headed. And best actress, I didn't even get this category right. Neither of us got this category right. I did.

Well, we didn't get it all right because we both picked Margot Robbie. And you at least got Sandra Huller. Yeah, you had Greta Lee here. I picked Emma Stone to win back in October. You picked Lily Gladstone to win back in October. Let's go to Supporting Actor. Supporting Actor, I got four out of five.

As did I. My misstep was adding Willem Dafoe and not getting Sterling K. Brown you added Coleman Domingo I got I picked the wrong category

in role for him yes I guess I'll my my Jeffrey Wright era will probably be erased with Robert Downey Jr.

when you chose Ryan Gosling to win that was a mistake we both selected Dava and Joy Randolph to win Best Supporting Actress. Wow. I went five for five in this. You did go five for five.

Wow. I remember when you picked Danielle Brooks, and I thought, hmm, maybe that was the right move. Getting America Ferreira was incredible. I know. Well, you have to remember we did this in October, and then everything went weird. Well, I also got America Ferreira. I know. That's why we both did it.

Yeah. Yeah, but I picked Julianne Moore, which was obviously not correct. I didn't get that one. Best adapted screenplay. I think we did this even before they moved

Barbie to adapted. We did. So we deserve a little bit of grace on this one. I'll tell you what, though. I picked American Fiction to win. Well, bully for you.

I feel pretty good about that. I picked Killers of the Flower Moon, which was not fucking nominated. I did pick it to be nominated. What is the film that we're missing? Oh, we're missing yeah yeah because killers didn't make it best original screenplay we both picked barbie and barbie to win yeah that was tough but at least we both nominated anatomy of a fall past lives may december oh i got it and i got may december and you didn't. Wow. You weren't bold enough. I didn't.

I did get four out of five, but I missed on Barbie. So what did you get? Did you get four out of five as well? You did, but you got different ones. You didn't choose Maestro and I chose Maestro. Right. Okay. Very interesting.

Okay. So we both lose on that one. Best documentary feature film. This was just a disaster. You got two out of five and I got one out Best documentary feature film. This was just a disaster. You got two out of five and I got one out of five. Yeah. We both chose

American Symphony to win. That's a nightmare. But I've been saying, we've been saying on the show like this branch is impossible to figure out. This is what they really went a different way.

So we're not really succeeding very well on that one. Best international feature film. Oh, I picked The Taste of Things. Wasn't even nominated. Painful. I did get The Teacher's Lounge.

You went five for five. No. Oh, you went four for five, but you picked Taste of Things. You did get The Teacher's Lounge. Damn it. I went three for five, but I did pick Zone of Interest to win.

So in that sense. I liked your Promised Land pick. Thank you. You hadn't seen Society of the Snow yet. Yeah, that's true. This is that's true this is why this was a silly game we played best animated feature film I went

three for five I went four for five you went four for five David and Griffin my blank check heroes we both chose Wish well RIP to Wish

this was before Wish was released is when we made these picks. Yeah. Wish is going so strong in my household. Yeah, no, I know. She's got the dress and everything.

The dress, all of the dolls we just picked up Magnifico the King and Queen Amaya over the weekend. We're building out a whole world of Wish

and the rest of the world is telling us Wish stinks. I'm looking at the letterbox ratings for Wish. There's like grown men who are like one and a half stars. Like guys,

fucking log off. Get off the platform if you need to dunk on Wish, you know? I know, this is a pot calling the kettle black. Nevertheless, I liked Wish. Okay. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Mutant Mayhem. Thought it was good. Feel like, is Ninja Turtles, Mutant Mayhem. I thought it was good. I feel like

is it better than Robot Dreams? Might be. Okay. That's between you and Robot Dreams. Those are all the categories that we picked. So we're kind of neck and neck here. I think you've got me on a couple of big ones because I think you've picked right on a couple of things that I have no chance to win. Like Zone of Interest and International, for example. Okay. I'm kind of screwed on that one. Okay. I guess I've got you on Adapted Screenplay. I've got you on Supporting Actor. You've got me, I think, on Actress.

You've got me on Actor for sure. So I think you're going to come out ahead. It's going to be close. That's exciting. It's going to be close. And so I'll shave my head live on the show if I lose. In the rules that we have listed here above those categories, it says the person with the most points on March 10th. There's a whole convoluted point system,

which I guess we can talk about after the Oscars on March 10th. But the person who wins designs a movie night and subsequent episode about the movie. Yeah, but I wanted to make it a public movie night. You mean you want to invite people to see a movie? Yeah. Like the listeners see a movie? Yeah. Like the listeners of the show? Yeah.

Where would that happen? I don't know. But like, why can't we? You wrote here, let me read this comment. 1.46 p.m. October 23rd. You highlighted movie night and you said, we should discuss the parameters of this. We could get a little crazy.

Okay, let's talk about it. That meant you being like, I'll pick some weird shit to show in my ADU. And for me, I was like, you want to get crazy? Let's open it up. Did I say that? Pick some weird shit to show in my ADU? Essentially, yeah.

Don't denigrate my ADU. We're doing great things there. It is a really nice ADU. Thank you. We're doing very special things there. It has a very dramatic velvet curtain. It does. Came with the house.

I know. I remember. Trust me. It just shuts very dramatic velvet curtain. It does. That you can draw. Came with the house. I know. I remember. Trust me. It just shuts out the world, you know, so the movie can begin. It's almost as though it was the home for me. There's a treadmill also in the corner. Did you move it? No, it's still there.

Okay. How often do you use it? Not as much as I used to. Having a child has just diminished my desire to exercise pretty significantly. But, you know, on a Saturday, nap time, pop on a movie, put in my AirPods, get on the treadmill. How fast are you running

on the treadmill while watching a movie? Roughly like 68 miles an hour. Pretty fast. It's like me and Tyreek Hill kind of neck and neck. And is there like a specific genre of movie that you pick?

Just softcore porn. Okay. No, I don't know. Just whatever is the next movie that I want to watch. I don't know. That's more psychotic than running to podcasts. As I think that there are.

Running to a movie? Yeah. Why? I don't know. I think people do it. I think it's not uncommon. Okay. I mean, otherwise, I mean, this is an actual thing with crazed cinephiles is like they

spend all day sitting on their ass. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you have to find a way to combat this. Right. You know, if you want to be powering through your watch list the way that i am this is this is like a core go outside uh dab mob belief you know that's when you need to go outside and not watch the movie when you're running when you're running go outside if you can that's a core dab mob belief well go outside in general is a core dab mob belief but like i really mean that for are you the president of the dot mob or the lisan al gaib

of the dot mob well i'm not from the outside world you know oh interesting like it is it is from me yeah um i feel like you should be colonized by the letterboxers there's no like i'm i'm not the product of 90 generations of weird nuns you you know? Aren't you? I feel that is precisely what you are. I have some real questions about their breathing choices then when it comes to me. Well, look what they turned out. I guess so. It only took 90 generations. Right.

And we got this perfection before us. All of these incredible predictions and picks. You feeling good about this? Yeah. Yeah? I feel pretty good. There'll be a couple surprises and that'll be interesting for us. You know, what we needed is something to jazz up our Sunday night. It's a zhuzh it up somehow. Yeah. Here we go. So we might get some things wrong. We handle that well. I don't mind. I don't really care. I used to really i used to be like i'm a i'm good at predicting this stuff i genuinely i honestly don't at this point uh i would like

i genuinely would rather be surprised and surprised in a pretty significant category would be fun to surprise in a short film category who cares i also like being surprised but i do really hate being wrong so you still hate being wrong i I do. About. Is that a core tenet of the Dobmob as well? We hate being wrong? I think that we're very good when like when we're actually wrong. I think we're really good at being like, wow, I was wrong. I didn't know about that. But for things that I think I should be right about, you know, I really don't.

You talk about Dobmob the way that Bill Simmons talks about the Patriots, you know, where he's like, we did really well this week. I really liked what we're doing out there. You know? Yeah. Very similar mentality. Right. Well, he is in many ways that spiritual leader, right? I wonder.

I wonder if the fan base. Maybe. Could be. Yeah. I mean, he's obviously been along for the ride. Yeah. They doing well, the Patriots? God, I hope not.

I hope they fail miserably. I hope they make a terrible pick at number three in the draft in April. I miss sports. I hope they fail miserably. I hope they make a terrible pick at number three in the draft in April. I miss sports I gotta tell you. You miss sports? Yeah there are no sports on right now. I won't watch NBA as previously discussed. You're just such a fucking heretic. It's disgusting. I'm honestly sick to my stomach just thinking about that. Why don't you invite Zach to come to your house every day? I would love to. At 5 15 and turn on NBC Sports Philadelphia. That sounds like a dream. And you get to watch the halftime show.

Once upon a time, that was a regular event in my life. They got rid of the Frosty Freeze. You know about this? No. They still got Brickin' for Chicken, though. They do have Brickin' for Chicken. That was huge. That's true. And sometimes people do win Brickin' for Chicken. But the original kind of fan

game gift at home Sixers games was that in the third quarter if the opposing team missed both free throws anyone from the opposing team is both free throws in the third quarter then everyone got a free frosty for wendy's okay which is like and so everyone would go fucking insane and then suddenly all the little like bobble heads of wendy you know of wendy's would just be like shaking. And it's very funny because it's like, who cares? Why are you guys going so insane? But everybody really wants their Frosty, which is a good incentive. I also would want a Frosty. Now they've changed it to chicken and I think you get some free nuggets. I used to be, I used to frequent Wendy's. I don't so much

anymore. But when I was, when I was a teenager, the Frosty was on the 99 cent menu. Is that still the case? Probably not with inflation, right? What does a Frosty go for these days? Want to take a guess? $2.99? I think it depends on where you are.

I'll say $2.99 maybe in a metro area. On Long Island, it was up there with the chicken nuggets for 99 cents. Supposedly, a large cost $2.69.

Oh, that was close. Okay. That was close. That sounds right. The price of the Frosty has 3x since I've matured into middle age. Yeah, because you're old. Do you need a large though now? So you're getting older.

You could just go down in size. A little bit of ice cream? If I have a Frosty right now, I'll go into cardiac arrest. Like that's the stage of my life that I'm in. I'm seriously considering bringing Frostys on Sunday night to the Oscars. That's a the stage of my life that I'm in. I'm seriously considering bringing Frosties on Sunday night to the Oscars.

That's a great idea. Great idea. I'm interested. Did you do the french fries in the Frosty? No, because I'm not a sick demon. That's a very common thing

and a great combo, you know? Do you think we should have a food pod? I feel like we would do well with a food pod. I'm just going to float that into the ether.

If somebody wants to come get me. We have like really specific tastes and opinions. Sponsored by the Wendy's Corporation. Okay. Sure. Six pods a week. Every day we talk about everything we've eaten and we rest on Sunday. Sounds great.

It's a good idea. Count me up. Yeah. That's it that's the pod today if you want to hear us talk more about the Academy Awards

we're going to do it immediately after the Academy Awards which as Amanda noted begin at 7pm Eastern 4pm Pacific on ABC on Sunday night

once those are concluded we'll be back Bobby will be recording us on the podcast thank you to Bobby Wagner for his work on this episode and thank you for listening I hope you don't

wager too much money on our predictions because we don't know what the hell we're doing but we kind of do but we kind of don't would you encourage anyone if they are in a state

that allows you to wager to wager on your predictions no okay so why did we do this for your Oscar pool I don't know I just

you know gambling addiction is real. So everyone be careful. One last recommendation I want to make to the listeners at home. If you are in an Oscar pool, everyone who loses that pool has to shave their head. Okay, thank you for listening to The Big Picture. We'll see you on Sunday. Thank you.