The Big Picture - Oscar Season: The Snubs and Surprises of the Academy Awards Nominations | The Big Picture (Ep. 45)

Episode Date: January 23, 2018

The Ringer’s Sean Fennessey, Amanda Dobbins, and K. Austin Collins react to the 2018 Oscar nominations. They break down the front-runners, the most shocking snubs, and what to look forward to come March 4. Also: the Academy’s apparent love of fish sex.https://www.theringer.com/2018/1/23/16923366/academy-award-nominations-get-out-lady-bird-three-billboards-shape-of-water-snubs-surprises Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey guys, do you have big plans for the new year? Squarespace makes it easy to turn those ideas into a unique website. Showcase your work, blog or publish content, even sell products and services of all kinds in just a few clicks. You can customize everything from look and feel to settings and products using beautiful templates created by world-class designers. And there's nothing to install, patch or upgrade ever. Head to squarespace.com for a free trial. And when you're ready to launch, use the offer code BIGPICTURE to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. And the Oscar goes to...

And the Oscar goes to... And the Oscar goes to... Okie dokie, Smokey. The Oscar goes to... And the Oscar goes to... There's a mistake. Moonlight, you guys won Best Picture. Moonlight won. This is not a joke. I'm afraid theynessy, editor-in-chief of The Ringer, and this is The Big Picture.

Good morning to Paul Thomas Anderson and no one else. It is Oscars Day. Actually, I have two more people I'd like to say welcome to, and they are Amanda Dobbins, culture editor of The Ringer, and Kay Austin Collins, film Critic for The Ringer. Kay, I'm Amanda. What's up? Good morning. Sean, good morning, and congratulations to you.

What a great day for PTA in the world. Guys, it's Oscars Day, one of my favorite days of the year, and I'm so glad you're joining me to talk about the Oscars. Interesting lineup of nominees. Let's start right at the top. The most important category, best picture. I'm going to read the nominees and then we can discuss them, break them down, and you can share your feelings about what we did and didn't get today. So from the top, call me by your name, darkest hour,

Dunkirk, get out, ladybird, phantom thread, the post, the shape of water, and three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Cam, what was your immediate reaction upon seeing the first nine nominees for Best Picture? You know, honestly, I usually hate most of the nominees for Best Picture, and I was shocked that this is a year, not shocked that this was a year that I didn't hate most of them, but I was pleased that I was right about so many of the good ones getting nominated. And some surprises, actually. But the ones I was rooting for are there, thank God.

What are those movies? I mean, I'm rooting for Phantom Thread, Get Out, Lady Bird, and to everyone's surprise, at least relative to the other things nominated, Dunkirk, which is not a movie that I love, but it's a movie that I respect enough. It's the best Churchill movie nominated. But not the best Churchill movie this year. No, not the best Churchill movie. I'm sorry. It's not the best Dunkirk movie this year.

Sorry. Yes. Right. Exactly. What movie is that, Amanda? That would be Their Finest by Lone Scherfig,

which was released earlier, I believe in March, and is about the making of a film about Dunkirk. So out of three Dunkirk movies this year, I'm going one,

Their Finest, two, Dunkirk, and three, Darkest Hour, which I agree should not be in this mix. Yeah. Their Finest, not acknowledged.

Dunkirk and Darkest Hour are acknowledged. Amanda, what about you? What were you excited to see? What were you frustrated to not see other than Lone Shurfig's historical drama? I would generally agree with Cam, which is that I was so surprised, particularly by Phantom Thread, which I think we all enjoyed and all did not expect to see in this list. And then, and also by Lady Bird, which was my favorite film of the year. And I think we knew it would be nominated, but still, you don't want to count your chickens before they

hatch. The Oscars are, you know, the Oscars will always betray you. Exactly. But beyond being surprised by Phantom Thread, I was so generally pleased by the nominations that I almost feel like I've been tricked. I worry that I've become too complacent and that things are I'm happy about these. And that seems to be setting me up for disappointment somehow. That's where I am on the emotional spectrum. Yeah. I had a similar reaction. I do think it's worth noting that it's understood. I think the conventional wisdom is that The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri are the front runners for Best Picture. And those are not two titles that you guys named, nor would I name them among my favorites in this group. I think the Phantom Thread nomination is what really threw people for a loop because virtually no one was predicting that the film was released the latest out of any movie this year. I think it's fair to say that it's quite idiosyncratic, even though Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated a few times in the past for his films. But there was some ambient

concern that all of the energy that was going towards movies like Get Out and Lady Bird that a lot of young people loved that felt a little bit different from your sort of historical Oscar fare, would somehow get tweaked or shut out or closed out of a series of categories. And that really didn't happen across the board, fair to say? Yeah. I mean, to your point about Phantom Thread, the fact that it got— I'm looking at a little chart that lists nominees by the number of nominations that they have and for Phantom Thread to have six spread out, just one fewer

than three billboards is just not the kind of thing that I was expecting at all. And for Get Out to have only four I actually wasn't, I mean I guess I don't know why I expected it to have more. It's not a technical category movie but this is a year where it seemed like they were spreading the love a little bit with the exception of Shape of Water getting far many more nominations than

anything else. I would agree. Generally, I think that there are just an unusual number of Best Picture nominees that I personally am really excited about. And I speak for a lot of people at The Ringer and just kind of young people who go to the movies. Everyone is very excited about Get Out. Everyone is excited about Lady Bird.

Everyone is excited about Phantom Thread. Most people are excited by Call Me By Your Name, except for certain people on this podcast. I am. Who could you be referring to? So I'm both happy. And then I had this moment of just wondering if I'm washed now because I agree with the academy. And does that mean that I'm an old person and the next generation is going to come along and be angry about the choices? You raise an interesting point, which is that in many ways, and I wrote this in a piece this morning on The Ringer,

I think that this feels like, if not a cataclysmic, at least a very significant change in terms of what is available to be nominated to people, what feels like it should be a frontrunner or should be in the conversation. And there were a lot of historic firsts. On the other hand, I think because we've spent six months prognosticating about this, there is, as our producer Zach Mack said, a bit of a chalk feeling to some of this stuff with the exception of Phantom Thread, which is just it's a strange cognitive dissonance between a horror movie directed by a black man is nominated for Best Picture, but we also just completely expected that. And that is, that's a unique place to be in Oscar history. You know, historically we think of Dances with Wolves as like the ideal Oscar

movie and we're in a different kind of era. Do you guys agree with that? I mean, yeah. I mean, you know, you're making me think I was most surprised by Darkest Hour being among the nominees. And another year, I mean, Darkest Hour is sort of like the king's speech of this year. I guess just because it's British and costuming. It's actually literally about the same character as the king's speech. You're right. Thank you for validating because I was just, man, I was thinking I was being over simple there. But, yeah, for that to be the surprise nominee for me is significant.

Whereas you're right. I totally went into this thinking the Blumhouse movie was going to be there. The A24 movie was going to be there. A little surprised that the Spielberg movie is there actually, which is weird. Which is weird. Yeah. I guess it's worth saying that The Shape of Water is leading the pack with 13 nominations. It is nominated in almost every sort of artisan category, which is usually a good sign that there's a lot of momentum behind the movie, that there's a lot of support from all of the branches of the Academy.

I'm keeping that in mind as we approach the Oscars on March 4th. I suspect that there will be a steady churn towards rewarding Guillermo del Toro in The Shape of Water. But, you know what, we have plenty of time to get into that. Before we go to the other categories, though, and parse those, I do want to know what is your single biggest surprise. So, Amanda, why don't you go first? What was the most shocking surprise and or snub if that's a word you enjoy using? It is.

And I am going to use snub. This, the problem is that this is my feelings are a surprise to no one, which is that Armie Hammer was not nominated. And I'm angry. And we can talk a little bit more about the supporting actor category, which is a little it's very tricky right now. And in a way is representative of all of the concerns of this Oscar season. But I for now will just say that Armie Hammer is a delight. It was a joy to have him at awards shows, and I really loved

his performance in Call Me By Your Name, which was a film that I enjoyed, and I'm sad that he will not be recognized. I don't think you're going to miss him at the awards show,

though. Something tells me he'll be there in a tux. He'll be presenting. He'll be smiling with that lantern jaw. Like, you'll get plenty of army. There's six whole weeks here to go. That's true. But today I get to be outraged. Cameron, what about you? Mine is petty, but this is a petty question. This is begging me to be petty. I would like to know why John Williams is nominated for the Star Wars score. That was one of the times I was just like, what is wrong?

I mean, even just like for this year, you have to have your John Williams nomination. I get that. He also made music for a Spielberg movie. Like, why not? It's not memorable music. It's not good music. But he hasn't been memorable or good in a long time. So that's not the factor here.

It's more just, why are we nominating Star Wars for Star Wars music that we've been hearing from the 70s? That's still just a variation on the same things we've been hearing since the 70s. It's just, this is the era of so much interesting movie music, Trent Reznor, et cetera, et cetera. It's just, why are we doing the John Williams thing still? This is petty. This is like a thing that five people care about, to be honest. But, you know, yeah, I think that's lame. I think that's a sign that the Oscars in some ways just as progressive as they seem this year are also wedded to their older, stodgier choices in many ways still.

They're respectful choices. There's no way to explain John Williams for Star Wars other than, yeah, you're alive. You're still making music. It's a good point. This is John Williams' 51st nomination, which is ludicrous. Insane. And, you know, I liked The Last Jedi score. I also am very fond of The Last Jedi, maybe more so than several occupants of the internet. I thought it was a little strange that they didn't make more of an aggressive push for Best Picture and given the critical reception of the film. But I agree with you that nominating John Williams in the time of Johnny Greenwood is a strange choice. I'll be very curious to see if Greenwood is able to overcome Alexandra Desplat and The Shape of Water. My pick is

Denzel Washington, who was nominated for Best Actor. And I don't know if it's a snub or a surprise or what the right terminology is, but it doesn't feel right. And that is not my favorite Denzel Washington performance nor my favorite film. And it also, in its own way, feels, I think, a bit, Cam, like what you're talking about, which is sort of an old world Oscar mentality where there's a great performer in a thin field. And so they choose to acknowledge him and identify him as one of the best. Now, you know, there are several mitigating factors here. One is that Tom Hanks is in the post and it's not the best Tom Hanks performance. It's a little bit of a paint by numbers Hanks, Ben Bradley. The other is that James Franco, who we should say has been accused of sexual misconduct by a number of people in the course of the last few weeks, was thought to be among the five most likely to be nominated,

and he's not nominated today. Whether that is as a result of the misconduct allegations or not, it is impossible for us to say. Nevertheless, Denzel is nominated, and that just seems strange. And it feels weird to be calling him out for being nominated for a movie that not very many people saw, and I don't think very many people liked. The movie disappeared. It did.

It's like the first Denzel-nominated performance that I can think of where the movie just disappeared. He's gotten random nominations before. Well, random maybe isn't the word. I'm thinking of a movie like Flight, where he was actually kind of extraordinary, but didn't really expect him to be nominated. Or, I mean, I didn't. But for this, it's just like, no one saw Roman. Like, who had that screener and thought that that was urgent to watch?

Because it was a movie that nobody was talking about. Nobody was talking about it after TIFF. nobody talked about it when it came out people on the streets were like denzel washington's in a movie um so it does feel weird to me i mean you know i love denzel though i can't wait to see him yeah i i suspect that motivated a lot of it's a weak category and then you see denzel's name and are happy to see his name and write it in. Watching Denzel at both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards I think he is probably as perplexed

and or annoyed by the nomination as everyone else. He has not been happy. So that'll be interesting. Not much of a press tour from him for this movie. I think he knows. What must it feel like to know you're in fifth place in a five-person race at all times? That must be a strange feeling.

And he knows because there's no atmosphere around that movie whatsoever. And, you know, he's Denzel. He's phenomenal. He has an Oscar. He deserves everything that he has gotten in his career. But there's just something notably off about this. Our boss, Bill Simmons, says it's a tragedy that Robert Pattinson was not nominated for Best Actor for a good time. I agree. Cam, I know you're a fan. I'm a huge fan as well.

You know, there's probably a number of other sort of left field choices that we could come up with, but it's unusual and interesting that in a year that is, I guess, considered to be, for lack of a better word, a progressive Oscars year, that the weakest and thinnest field is best actor, which is usually the most loaded. And, you know, it just sticks out in my mind. Guys, let's jump to best director. I'm going to read you the nominees now. Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan.

Get Out, Jordan Peele. Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig. Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson. And The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro. I think that the headline here is Paul Thomas Anderson, who not many people had tabbed for this. In fact, no one on goldderby.com, the quote-unquote expert predictors of awards season, had pointed towards Paul Thomas Anderson. Guys, what is your reaction to this field of nominees? I think this might be the best category.

This is very exciting because there's something for everyone. It's great to see Jordan Peele in there. It's wonderful to see Greta Gerwig in there. It's great to see Paul Thomas Anderson is a total surprise and very deserving. Christopher Nolan, even if you didn't enjoy the process of experience of watching Dunkirk, it's a technical feat. You can't argue with it. And it's short. That's so true.

It is short and God bless. This is his first nomination. Yes, for his shortest movie, right? Or one of the shortest. Yeah. I'm just the correlation here. I'm just very interested. Yeah.

And listen, I don't really acknowledge fish sex, but good for Guillermo del Toro. It seems to represent a feat of filmmaking. So this is exciting. This is also everyone we want and no one we don't want, which is great to see. So I'm pleased. This is maybe my favorite category. Cam, how'd you respond? So this is the only category where I'm rooting for at least three people.

I'm actually rooting for four people, pretty much everyone but Guillermo. No hard, hard, hard feelings. But I didn't, I didn't really enjoy that movie. And I'm pretty sure that he's going to win this. It's, it's, Best Director is such a, it's treated like a technical category, even though I don't think it really should be. And I think because of the two technical feats, Dunkirk and Shape of Water, Shape of Water is the one that seems to have more momentum. It's sort of both a great category and an anticlimactic for me.

But Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, Paul Thomas Anderson, great lineup. You know, this is a category where there's usually someone where I just think, like, the dude who directed Imitation Game was nominated for this. Morton Tilden. You know what he's doing right now? Directing the debut of a J.K. Simmons show on Starz. That's how far his star has

fallen. Sad. I don't know if that's fallen, or I don't even know what that means anymore. I mean, I'm going to say fallen because that's my opinion on that, but I'm sure he thinks he's doing well. But anyway, you know, I think this category is great. Like, I'm enjoying it. Yeah, I'm excited for PTA, obviously. This is his second Best Director nomination after There Will Be Blood.

And I think he has virtually no chance to win. So that's interesting. Who knows anymore? Who knows anymore? Who knows anymore? He wasn't supposed to be nominated. It's very true. I mean, he's not going to win. I think one thing that is a possible side effect

of these nominations is that a lot more people end up watching Phantom Thread because they see that it got six nominations and then there is a swell. And, you know, as Zach pointed out before we started recording, it does tick a lot of the historical boxes. And I think it being Daniel Day-Lewis' swan song, or at least purported swan song, means that there will be probably a little bit more sentimental energy behind it than certainly than I thought six hours ago.

I do still think this is Guillermo del Toro's race to lose. And it's funny that Guillermo del Toro, who is, you know, a Mexican filmmaker who makes very personal, very unusual monster movies, essentially, has been almost denigrated to being sort of like the old world, you know, the old version of what we prize. And there's just something so strange about that. Because if you watch any of his other movies, even Pan's Labyrinth, which was the last time he was sort of acknowledged as an awards contender, these are really strange fairy tales that he's trying to tell. And they're not, for Christopher Nolan to somehow seem more provocative than Guillermo del Toro, has just been a fascinating turn of events for me.

Do you think the Academy, I mean, I know it has 13 nominations. I know he's up for Best Director. Do you think the Academy is really into the fish sex? I'm just not convinced that they are. Somehow, I know that all evidence points elsewhere. And I do think he's going to win this category. When you mean into the fish sex, like what is that? What I mean is I expect those anonymous Oscar ballot people in – is it Variety? Hollywood Reporter? Hollywood Reporter, yeah.

In Hollywood Reporter to say things like, the movie has fish sex in it. This is so ridiculous. I can't believe people are going for the fish sex movie. In the way that I also expect them to say, well, Get Out's not really that good. It's just very relevant. And the same thing about Lady Bird. I expect the comments to be, you know, I'm voting for Del Toro because he had the most to do

and because I'm sort of over Nolan and PTA will have his chance again and Greta Gerwig and Peele are diversity ones and GDT is the one who's doing the most fantastical or tourist thing, but I really don't like the fish sex. So I'll vote for this, but not for Best Picture.

This is what I'm imagining one of them is going to say to a T. Amanda, you're going the other way. You're saying, I love fish sex. I love everything about it, the way it was staged, the physical possibilities that GDT showed us, right? I love monsters. Yeah. Little beasties.

I can't even with the little beasties. My interpretation of the shape of water has always been that, quote, artists love another I can't even with the little beasties. in the guild responding to Sally Hawkins' performance, and you can see people kind of appreciating the imagination. And it sort of seems like director is where that would be rewarded. Yeah. But who knows? Maybe it's just fish sex all the way. I agree completely. Fish sex all the way.

Let's talk a little bit about what I think is the most interesting category, though not one of the top-line categories per se, and that is best adapted screenplay. And here are the nominees for that. Call Me By Your Name by James Ivory, The Disaster Artist written by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, Logan written by Scott Frank and James Mangold and Michael Green, Molly's Game by Amanda's BFF Aaron Sorkin, and Mudbound, which is written by Virgil Williams and Dee Reese. So there's three headlines here, I think. First and foremost is Logan, which is a comic book movie that is nominated for one of the seven most important Oscars. The second is Mudbound, which features the first ever black woman nominated for this category. And the third is The Disaster Artist, which is mostly shut out at the Oscars,

but somehow managed to sneak its way in here, I think because the authors of the movie devised a very, sort of a devilishly clever adaptation of a complicated book. But I wanted to get a sense from you guys if you thought this was interesting in any way. Usually, screenplay categories can be a bellwether for other races, and I'm not sure if that's the case this time around. But what did you think, Cam? You know, it's funny to look at both screenplay categories and feel like historically, I always relied on the screenplay branch to be where the weirdos were. And to not feel that way really this year. I mean, a lot of these are just best picture picks, more so the original screenplay.

But adapted, it's, you know, yeah, James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name. I kind of saw that coming. Molly's Game, Aaron Sorkin, it's a lot of words. So there you go. He wins for most words. Most words. Logan, though, is really a pleasant surprise. And it reminds me that there was a time in the year when I thought that Logan was actually going to be more of an award season push. blockbuster superhero movie or kind of IP movie among Best Picture nominees.

I expected not Star Wars but Logan because it's the serious comic book movie, and I thought that the Academy would love to pat themselves on the back that way. And I think this is the closest to that maybe. Let me share a theory that I've been working on that I have been workshopping and I haven't shared yet publicly. That theory is that Darkest Hour took all of Logan's heat and that they are the same movie. If you look at the structure about a powerful man

attempting to gain more power as he ages and he sees that he is nearing the end, there's a stronger man that he has to guide around and make sure he makes the right choices. And then there's a young woman that is essentially supporting him and making sure that he accomplishes his feats. Should Logan be in the darkest hour spot? Amanda, yes or no? No.

Wasn't that a good pitch, though? That was great. And I should clarify that I don't think darkestest Hour should be in the Darkest Hour split anyway. I have a slightly simpler theory, Sean, which, as you noted in your piece today, the collective box office of the Best Picture nominees is less than the box office of Star Wars The Last Jedi. are noticeably blockbuster resistant in a way that seems like a choice. And it just seems that no one really was feeling interested in rewarding superhero movies and or movies that make a lot of money. A strange choice in terms of self-preservation, but that's my best explanation. I have a lot of feelings about that. I'll be very curious to see what kind of atmosphere there is around the Oscars this year. You know, the ratings were down a bit last year. They've been down for the most part over the

course of the last decade. And I do think that one of the reasons for that is just because there are a lot of Americans who just don't know even what the shape of water is. You know, that's a movie that it's a front runner with 13 nominations and has only made $30 million. You know, Logan has made $300 million. Wonder Logan has made $300 million. Wonder Woman has made $500 million. Those movies are largely not represented here. And I don't really agree necessarily with quality and attention being equal. to be said because I think the original argument around expanding the best excuse me, I think the original argument around expanding the best picture pool

to ten nominees was the absence of the Dark Knight and we're still not really in a place where those movies are acknowledged in these spaces. I don't know, Cam, do you think that that's something that should be happening that feels important? It's something

that I would like to happen if only because I, well, maybe this is more a matter of making better movies that cost a lot of money and make a lot of money, making more worthy movies. Of those movies this year, though, I really did think that Logan was, I mean, in this category, as much as I love James Ivory, I would vote for Logan if I were voting. It is the most interesting challenge in a screenplay. And I just, I'm wondering if there was something about the way that it was campaigned or not. It's here, so someone put some money into sending the screenplay to everyone.

But yeah, I wonder if the studios just aren't campaigning these movies very well. I wonder if the visibility just isn't there. I don't know. I'm a little, I would love for more big Hollywood movies to be a part of the Oscars, not only for the health of that organization, but also just, I would like for big movies to be a part of that conversation. I don't think that the quality movie conversation should only be indies.

Even if that right now is reflecting the way the industry works. I would like the industry to try harder to make better big movies. And I know, I mean, I think they tried. I think with Logan and War for the Planet of the Apes and Star Wars and its way, they were getting at something. Those are all better than Transformers, but

I would like to be able to think that a movie like Logan, like it would have been beautiful to me if Logan, Get Out, and Lady Bird, and Call Me By Your Name were all in the same year, kind of anointed. I would like that.

We're not quite in that space. We're going to get to the rest of the major nominations, but first let's take a quick break to get a word from our sponsor. Support for today's show comes from Squarespace. Ready to start your new business? Why wait until the new year to set your plans in action? The future is coming.

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The BS Podcast, Cousin Sal and I playing Guest Alliance. More importantly, The Ringer NFL Show. Subscribe right now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. We're back on The Big Picture with Amanda Dobbins and Cam Collins. I am Sean Fennessey. And now we're going to talk about the acting nominees at the 2018 Oscars. We're going to start with Best Supporting Actress, which I think is a pretty interesting category.

I'll read the nominees. They are Mary J. Blige for Mudbound, Allison Janney for I, Tonya, Leslie Manville for Phantom Thread, Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird, and Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water. Amanda, what was your immediate reaction when you saw this category? Thrilled for Leslie Manville. Yes.

That was the surprise for everyone. And she was fantastic. Hallelujah. And it's great to see her there. And I would love it if she wins. She will not. She will absolutely not. So I was thrilled to see Leslie Manville. I was thrilled to see her there. And I would love it if she wins. She will not. She will absolutely not. So I was thrilled to see Leslie Manville.

I was thrilled to see Mary J. Blige. Yeah. The rest were expected. And there is a sense of inevitability to this category, despite the surprises. And Allison Janney has been winning all the awards. And I am here to say that I do not think Allison Janney deserves this Oscar. At all. And I say that as a person who is a huge fan of Allison Janney and her career.

And she seems like a wonderful woman. But I do not understand this category. I'm, man, I, this is Laurie Metcalf's Oscar to me. I mean, I would also love for Leslie Manville to win. She is my favorite, actually, of this group. But of the people who've been winning things, who've been nominated this season so far, to me it's like, Laurie Metcalf, it just feels like she's'm intrigued by the range of choices and displeased by the fact that there's such a clear frontrunner who's the wrong one.

Yeah, and maybe we're speaking too soon because Allison Janney did win the Golden Globe. She did win the SAG Award. But I, Tanya, did not do as well in the nominations as we had perhaps expected. I expected way better. And I think everyone on this podcast is pleased with the general trend of how the I, Tanya nominations are going. So who knows?

But I just don't understand the Allison Janney performance, despite the problems with the movie, if you have them. It's such a, it's easy for her. I don't understand why we're warning alice and janie can do those kind of one-liners in her sleep and i don't get it i don't i don't get it either it feels like the kind of performance where if you're ever looking through like imdb of like previous supporting actor or actress winners it seems like one of those very dated ones where you're just like oh yeah i guess she would have voted for that in the 70s. This feels like a bird on your shoulder, kind of bitchy one-liner, mean mom role just doesn't

feel very contemporary as a choice to me. And I don't mean that in a political way. I just mean that it's like seen Chewie in a way that seems too obvious. Whereas like Laurie Metcalf, I mean, even every write-up that I saw this morning pointed out that Laurie Metcalf was the more nuanced or interesting role. So it's clear that we all seem to think that Laurie Metcalf here is the one to be paying attention to. But Allison Janney just keeps winning. And good for her. Her first Oscar, if she wins. I have a question for you, Sean, which is just that Allison Janney and Margot Robbie were both instrumental in the making of I, Tonya and sort of making that happen.

Do you think there's anything to the idea that that is being rewarded rather than their performances? I do think that that is what has been identified in Allison Janney's performance specifically, which is that, you know, she's very, very close friends with Steven Rogers who wrote the screenplay and the part was written explicitly for her. And if she were to not get it, I don't think this movie would have happened. And even though what you guys are saying is true, and Amanda, I know specifically you're a longtime Allison Janney watcher, the fact that it's kind of her hitting her base notes, you know, her key notes, a lot of moviegoers are not as familiar with that. A lot of movie makers are not as familiar with that because she, you know, spent a lot of time in the West Wing and is now one of the stars of Mom.

She's a TV actress. And I don't mean that in a pejorative sense, but she's largely known for her work on television. And this is kind of her doing it on a slightly bigger stage. And the lines are written specifically to her cadence. As far as Margot Robbie, I mean, we can get into that a little bit more in the best actress category. She is a producer on the movie. There's never been a woman who's produced a movie and has also been nominated for best actress at the Oscars before. So that part of it is interesting.

This category is a little bit of a sore thumb for me because I don't really understand the Octavia Spencer nomination at all. I don't understand that part. It's the most underwritten part in the movie, and it feels like Octavia by numbers. And I don't really understand the Mary J. Blige nomination either. I think that that's probably the least interesting supporting performance in that movie, which I think is a little underrated at this point. And I think it's a good performance and she's a famous woman and there's a good story there. But, you know, I wrote last week that I was way more taken with Jason Mitchell's performance in that movie. I think it's interesting what Carey Mulligan has to do in that movie, given that that book is about her character, but then the story shifts

completely and she becomes kind of a supporting character in this movie adaptation of that book. So, you know, I agree with you guys, ultimately, that Laurie Metcalf has the most nuanced role and the most nuanced performance. I think it's also kind of fascinating that, essentially, it's going to be a race between two people who are best known as TV actresses. I do think that Allison Janney will be rewarded ultimately, though. I have a question for you, though, about – because I'm totally on the same page. And I'm wondering, there's this supporting actress rut that Octavia Spencer seems to be in. And I don't just mean in terms of nominations.

This is a category she's been in before, she's won before, but even just, like, the kinds of roles that she's offered or takes and gets recognized for, I'm both, like, incredibly, I mean, to think, like, wow, what a time when there's a Black actress

that I can name who's, like, a sure thing Oscar nominee that's, like, in a way, amazing. But I'm over, i'm just so over she's in like a weird fish sex movie and she's still playing the same kind of role that she always plays it's just weird to me and that to me is also kind of a damning part of that movie um frankly a limit to that movie's vision that you really can't imagine anything better for octavia spencer than what she's been doing in every other Oscar-nominated performance that she's had, but in the midst of a deaf woman having sex with a fish. Wouldn't you love to see what she could do with a Leslie Manville character in Phantom Threat type role?

Oh my god, absolutely. She hasn't really been given a chance. And who knows why that is. Or Sally Hawkins' role in Shape of Water. I would love for Octavia Spencer to – I would love for them to have shared the fish guy. Wow. Or something, something more like. The only way to make that movie more perverse would be to add another participant in the fish sex.

Something. I know that would risk the number of Oscar nominations it would get, but I think that would be more interesting. But yeah, I feel a little bit like, sore thumb is right, I feel a little bit let down by this, even though it's like I want to celebrate these nominees. And, but I just feel a little bit, you know, even Mary J. Blige's character and role here, sort of like there is a way to get nominated for Best Supporting Actress as a black actress. And these two roles epitomize it. Really well put. Let's use this as an opportunity to pivot to supporting actor here are the nominees. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project, Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water, Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World,

and Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Guys, first of all, it was noted this morning that Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell sharing the Best Supporting Actor nominations for the same film hasn't happened in decades. And there's a lot of people who seem to think that Rockwell, myself included, seem to think that Rockwell is going to run away with this. I think Woody's presence in the movie in this category, though, slightly undermines that. So, you know, I want to talk to you guys a little bit about that and also talk to you a little bit about the Christopher Plummer nomination, which is obviously larded with controversy of its own. Amanda, what did you think of this category in general? Well, as we set up earlier, I'm already disappointed

because Armie Hammer is not in this category. And there are two things going on here. I think that Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson were both kind of locks from very early on in the awards process. And that is not how I would design this category. And I think it's how not how many people would design this category, both because of conflicted feelings about three billboards, which maybe not even conflicted is the word dislike of the film three billboards. But also, I don't know that, frankly, you forget that Woody Harrelson in this movie. I like Woody Harrelson a lot. And I think he's very good for the 15 minutes that he's in it. But this is it does kind of seem like the traditional

famous person does a very short stint in a movie and you're happy to see them. And so you give them an Oscar nomination. And I think that's that's disappointing in its own right when you have army hammer and michael stolberg and a lot of other interesting actors were any of those other interesting actors um in a movie that wasn't call me by her name well michael stolberg was also in shape of water and the post that's basically the most important that's true most important actor. Yeah, this category is boring to me. I only have one horse in this race, and it's Willem Dafoe. And I guess he's not going to win.

I don't know why Richard Jenkins is here, to be honest. That's no side against him. I just, you're like, you know. And I appreciate a gay BFF I appreciate I appreciate the lane good for him I'm a little bored with that performance

Christopher Plummer I also admired but I do think that he's here because of the feat of

first of all I think in those reshot scenes from All the Money in the World he's the only one who seems to be acting because he's the only one

who's doing it for the first time maybe it's just him sharing scenes with mark walberg where it's like one of you is clearly one of you is clearly awake and one of you is clearly not um but i appreciate him good for him woody harrelson i love uh not in this movie not memorable sam rockwell i love and would really love to win an os Oscar. And my misgivings are less about the role than about the fact that this is also sort of by the numbers for me. It's like a role that I, it perfectly suits him, and I think he does a perfectly fine job. I think it's good. I give him a gold star.

I don't know why I would give him an Oscar. Whereas Willem Dafoe, it's like the challenge of being in a movie as a professional actor surrounded by non-actors, A, and blending in and being naturalistic. B, being Willem Dafoe and not being creepy is a feat because he just,

for me, is always a creepy presence. No shade. Just like that's what he's good, he's used for often. But he's like warm and loving and caring in this. It's sort of against type. And I would just love to see him.

I would just love for Willem Dafoe to win, you know? We also haven't really talked about the Florida Project, which was on a lot of favorite lists at the end of the year and could be considered a snub for Best Picture. I received a very angry email from my own father this morning about the Florida Project not being included in Best Picture nominations. So I liked that movie a lot. I think it maybe wasn't a lock, but it's sad that it's not getting more attention. And I do think it's a shame that Sam Rockwell is going to run away with it

over Willem Dafoe's performance. I'm not so sure. I think that there is a chance that Dafoe takes this, which is not really how the awards have played out. But I do think the absence of Martin McDonagh for Best Director indicates that maybe the Three Billboards train is not as powerful as we initially thought we could see. There is some vote splitting in play. I think Woody is also, even though that character kind of vanishes

after the first 45 minutes of the movie, is beloved and may just catch a lot of, you know, pity and admiration votes. And Woody is never bad in anything. I mean, he always lifts the spirit of a movie, even if his character isn't essential. The one thing that's unfortunate about the Willem Dafoe nomination is

he's the only person that was recognized for the Florida Project, as Amanda, you pointed out. And he's the only sort of known quantity that's in that movie. And one of the charms of that movie is that there's so many people that you've never seen before. We know to be nonprofessional actors or who are trying something for the first time. And, you know, Sean Baker makes films that are often using a lot of non-professional people and he has a little bit of an unusual approach to making film. And that is definitely what I think a lot of people responded to about that movie. So for the one person to be identified as the person who you've seen in 75 movies over the last 30 years is kind of a bummer.

That said, I agree with what Cam, you were saying, which is that Willem Dafoe is playing against type. And that's fun. That's cool. And he does it beautifully. You know, you really, you feel close to him and you feel an unusual empathy for one of his characters. And I think that there's a small chance that he takes this. But, you know, we'll have to see. I would love that.

We live in a post-Moonlight world, so anything can happen, frankly. Anything can happen. And anything did happen in the lead actress category. That's not true. Actually, this was the chalkiest category of them all. I'm going to read the nominees and we can break it down. Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, Francis McDormand in Three Billboards, Margot Robbie in I, Tonya, Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, and Meryl Streep in The Post. This is Meryl Streep's 21st nomination. That's insane.

Any reactions? This was the least shocking and interesting category out of all of them to me. I've got two reactions. Number one, Meryl Streep was good in the post. I agree. I secretly love Meryl Streep in the post. I'm not shading it. I just want to note that we are living in the dawn

of Meryl Streep every single day. Yeah. That's true. She's basically doing her Julia Child impression, but I also really enjoyed the Julie versus Julia, so it's fine with me. And then the other thing I would say, and this is almost greedy, but given all the Phantom Thread nominations nominations i suddenly really got mad for vicky crapes in a way that i hadn't even thought to think that she would get a nomination because phantom thread was just not on people's radars and as sean as you have pointed out many times as cam as you pointed out she makes that movie she's great in that movie. Yeah, she's the hardest role. She's holding her own against mean-ass Leslie Manville, who's a pro,

and weird-ass Daniel Day-Lewis, also a pro. And she seamlessly is of the same caliber. It's remarkable. She's playing a character who has to butt up against kind of an egotistical character played by a highfalutin method actor, pain in the ass. And she more than holds her own. And that's also a movie where if the female lead can't bring it, then the film is a disaster. Right.

It is doing some gender dynamics that really need someone who can hold her own. Yeah, absolutely. Far be it for me to take away the credit that a woman deserves and give it to a man. That is not what I am trying to do here. But I do think it's one of the master strokes of PTA and the movie is to find the right person to go nose to nose with Daniel Day-Lewis again. I mean, he did this with Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood, and he found the right person to kind of stare down this overwhelming, intense presence. And Vicky Cripps is the same. I mean, it's the same sort of thing. It's a person you haven't seen at maybe once or twice in a film who at first seems shy and retiring and then becomes incredibly powerful and persuasive and it takes over the

movie at times and i completely agree and i wish she was nominated and there's nothing we can do about it now so i guess francis is going to win this is that that's that's that's the way it's going to go right i mean i i don't know i honestly don't know i i would it would be nice if there was a little bit more energy going in sasha r Ronan's direction. I think she's been nominated so many times for someone who's 23 years old already that it's possible that some of that goodwill starts to build. When is she going to get that Jennifer Lawrence bump? I mean, really Jennifer should give her Oscar. Can I ask you, how much do you think that acceptance speeches play a role in voting? Because I have thought a lot about Frances McDormand's performance in Three Billboards since I saw it. And I think that is a flawed movie and I agree with much of what Cam wrote.

But she's very angry in a way that you don't see on film, especially from a woman. And I have thought about that. And then the campaigning process has not been the most solid from her. I don't really think she's been engaging with the conversation around the film, which is maybe not her job. And then her speech at the SAG Awards was – it was unfortunate. And I think the key lines were that she said the word representation and then started speaking about her agents instead of seeing ourselves on film. So people do talk a lot about the early awards season, the early awards shows as test cases. And I'm just curious whether you think that will affect her at all.

I don't think so. I think Frances McDormand is a 60-year-old woman who is a known public quantity because her public quantity is that she's not public. The only times that we've seen her are when she is accepting a Best Actress Oscar or she is sitting in the audience not receiving a Best Actress Oscar and seeming completely nonplussed by that. You know, she has like a straight-talking, straight-ahead-, straight ahead in my own world kind of identity. And if we have a desire to project something more meaningful than that, I think we're bound to be disappointed. And that's like an interesting, an interesting test case for all of the Oscars. You know, there is a desire, and I'm guilty of this as anybody, to put meaning on this stuff that doesn't necessarily exist in the same way that it's, I think, a little risky to try to put meaning on a movie like Three Billboards.

It can't necessarily hold the weight of. So, you know, whether she wins or not and whether that's, I think a win for Saoirse Ronan would be as powerful a statement about, you know, a woman's point of view as Frances McDormand. Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. Saoirse Ronan's pretty angry in that movie at times too. But the thing that's, I think, maybe not so great about Three Billboards is Frances McDormand's character is like only angry.

You know, she's not really anything else. Well, if she wore anything but overalls, she would have us to be angry. Well, she does look comfortable. I don't want to undermine that. She does. But I love Frances McDormand so much. And there's nothing for me as sour as, like, an actor you love in a role, getting awards and stuff for a role that just you think is not to quality for them. I feel the same way about her in this as I do about Allison Janney and Tanya, which is like, yeah, you would, of course, rock this part. There's nothing.

And I guess that's not bad. I think part of being a movie star is, you know, knowing what your lane is and satisfying every time. But I think looking at these nominees and I don't see why she wouldn't win. But this is an unexpectedly weak category for me. It's weird to feel like this is a category full of powerful women characters, but it still feels like a weak category because it doesn't feel like the most exciting, besides for me, Saoirse. I'm secretly standing for Meryl.

The gold caftan is like the outfit of the year. Can I offer a controversial take about the caftan? Do you hate it? We deserve better caftans. Give me a print. That's my goal for 2018. Let's raise our expectations

for caftans in movies. Okay, thank you. I'm done. That is not something about which I have an opinion, so we're going to go to the next category. And we've spent a lot of time on this already, so we don't have to belabor it.

But it's lead actor and here are the nominees. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name, Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread, Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out, Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour, and the aforementioned Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esquire. I've shared my Denzel takes. I think that there's something notable in this category, which is that it is two first-time nominees, young men, Chalamet and Kaluuya, and then three warhorses, so to speak, in DDL and Gary Oldman and Denzel. Gary Oldman, obviously, is the frontrunner here. Is there anything that you guys want to say about this that isn't, I guess, Gary Oldman's going to win?

I was shocked about Daniel Kaluuya actually. Really? I wasn't seeing that. No, because I guess I hadn't really heard people talk about Get Out as an actor movie.

I'm over Joy. There was some hope for Betty Gabriel too but that never really surfaced. Yeah, I'm on the Betty Gabriel train. And if anyone should be nominated

for this movie actually for me it's Betty Gabriel. But I love him in this. I love the idea of him being in the Academy now, I guess, sort of eventually is how it works. How do you think Sam Jackson feels about this? Not psyched? I wonder if he even noticed. What is he even up to?

He's on a boat somewhere right now. He's good. It's a good – this is a good category to me. I don't even dislike Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. I love a mean, scene-chewy, puts on a lot of weight, like is more pale than he has to be. I have another take about this one. Oh, ready. Which is that I think Churchill is too easy a role to win an Oscar. Ooh.

Because all you have to do is sit in a bathtub and be eccentric and all of the good lines are already written for you by history. So... True. This is my take.

That's why you need a genuine eccentric like Reynolds Woodcock. Exactly. Bring Daniel Day-Lewis his fourth Oscar forthwith. Okay.

Isn't it weird that he's not going to win? I mean, I just don't think he's going to win. Well, that's what I was going to ask. It's such a good performance. It's like...

Do you think the Phantom Thread surge today has any effect on Daniel Day's chances? It's definitely possible because we know that there are so many people in the Academy that are just obsessed with him. And they're obsessed with the idea of what he does as an actor because it makes it feel like their job is more important. And it has more power. And it's definitely plausible that he win. I just think that Gary Oldman, and let's use this as a segue to talk about the next phase of this stuff, has been campaigning his guts out. He has really just kissed every baby and handshaken every journalist and done all the things that you need to do to lock up a nomination and then ultimately a win.

And for a year we've been hearing that Gary Oldman has been gearing up to get his Oscar. And I do think that that's the direction that we're headed in. If Daniel Day-Lewis manages to overwhelm the feelings of the Academy members, then maybe he ties Katharine Hepburn as the only person to win four Oscars. But we'll see. With that in mind, Cam, you pointed out to me last week that this might be a uniquely interesting campaign period now, the next sort of 35 days of voting that we're going to have.

What did you mean by that when you said that? I just, I think it's going to get a little, I don't want to say nasty, but I guess that is the word. Because for a number of reasons, we are dealing with the Oscars, so we're dealing with some sort of backlash, period. I think at this point it's sort of clear which movies are going to get a lot of conversation, three billboards among them. And a lot of dissenting opinions are going to keep getting published every day about these things. But then I also think this is the moment of, this is the moment of like time's up, right? So this is the moment of people, people coming to the fore with stories and details about the past bad behavior of people up for awards, not only people up for awards, but tis the season.

And I sort of wonder, you know, it's not so hard to Google someone like Gary Oldman and find the things that would derail like an awards campaign. How that gets spun is interesting to me because I mean, mostly I'm sort of turned off by the idea of this only being pegged to award season but I'm interested to see how the knives come out I mean you know it's it's politics and you are really at an advantage if you're something like Timothee Chalamet no one really knows and you're kind of too young to have really done anything you know you're just like and you're like the cute kid who's dancing to Cardi B on the red carpet. There's like no dirt, really.

But these warhorses, I think, should be thinking right now. Particularly given James Franco's not here. So clearly, I mean not clearly, not automatically, but it's safe to say that the conversation surrounding him had an impact on whether or not in the ensuing week people felt comfortable putting his name on a ballot. So I think that kind of thing can matter. On the other hand, the best actress trophy is going to be given out by Casey Affleck this year, right? He was last year's winner. That is the plan. And he won. And there was also a healthy conversation

there. So it's a weird moment for these things. And I hate that this is getting adjudicated via an award because I think that's tacky. But I just see it getting a little bit nasty.

And I'm exhausted. I'm exhausted. I'm tired of, like, relitigating Three Billboards with all my friends. I'm tired of a friend who's, like, just saw it and is like, oh, my God, have you seen it and wants to talk about it? I'm tired of the friends who are like, you know, have you heard this about this actor or blah, blah, blah. It's just an exhausting way to have this conversation. But this is the moment when

it's going to get bad. Amanda, what do you think? Do you think we're going to have a nasty period now in the next six weeks or so? You know, I think it's going to go both ways. It's an interesting year because we've spent this whole podcast, or most of it, talking about nominations that we are excited about, and I think we would agree that it's been a good year for films that we are interested in, and it has been a truly horrible year for the film industry

in terms of, I suppose it's been a horrible lifetime for the film industry given what we know now, but in processing and revealing this information and trying to even wrap your head heads around it and figure out how to make change both in the industry and the world at large. So there is no way to reconcile those two things. Well, it's going to be awkward. It's going to be uncomfortable. I think Kim, I would not be surprised if there is another personality driven controversy before because we have six weeks and it's the Internet. And you could imagine people wanting to use the best picture category as a place to reward vision and what we want to see in the world and what the film industry would like to think of itself as, as opposed to what the last year has revealed it to be.

So you could have both, I think, the negative campaigning and the nastiness that Cam is talking about and maybe something really lovely like a get out or a ladybird surprise, because that's what Hollywood wants to think of itself as. And, you know, I think it'll be surprising. I really have no idea what's going to happen in the next six weeks. You know, what you just described is actually why I'm pretty confident that Three Billboards is going to win. OK, great. Well, I was trying to be positive. No, I mean, but because I think what Hollywood really likes is to be the place that says we understand the extent to which bad people are bad people.

We also understand the extent to which, as artists, the extent to which bad people are complicated and bad people are people, not just bad people. So this is how I imagine an awards ceremony in which Gary Oldman wins, Deebo Boards wins, Sam Rockwell wins, and Sam Rockwell pegged here because of the role he plays, not because of the person that he is. Things like that. I see it all going in that direction combined with an award ceremony that's hyper aware of the moment. You know, I sense it being very awkward.

It's never going to be awkward when Casey Affleck is handing Frances McDormand her Oscar. You've gotten me so excited for this ceremony, Cam. Wow. Yeah. This is... I'm excited for the tributes to dead people.

That's like... That and the greatest showman song. Yeah, remember me from Coco. There's going to be some good stuff. Come on. Let's find some enthusiasm. I think you're right that, you know, we're in the middle of the most complicated and vexing period arguably in recent Oscar history. And there will be some complications around that.

I'm not totally sure that the voting is going to go. As you said, I don't know if we'll have a darkest hour, darkest timeline sort of situation, but it's possible. And if we do, we'll find ways to communicate about it smartly. We'll be communicating about it smartly, hopefully over the course of the next six weeks. And I hope to be talking to you guys again soon about the Oscars. Thank you so much for coming on The Big Picture today. Thank you, Sean. This was fun. Okay, guys, farewell and Jason from Binge Mode. We wanted to tell you about the Ringer's upcoming Binge Mode Rewatchables mashup live event

on Wednesday, January 24th at Largo at the Coronet right here in Los Angeles. It'll be me, Jason Concepcion, Mallory Rubin, Shea Serrano, and Bill Simmons for a high school football spectacular covering Friday night lights and varsity blues. So put on your shoulder pads or your whipped cream bikini. Let's go, goddammit! Head to Largo-LA.com to purchase your tickets now. Clear eyes. Clear eyes.

Full hearts. Full hearts. Don't snooze. Don't snooze! Buy your tickets now for Wednesday, January 24th at Largo at the Coronet in Los Angeles. Yeah!