The Big Picture - Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

We’re getting close to the finish line! On today’s show, Sean and Amanda give their official picks for the 98th Academy Awards. Before diving in, they react to the new trailer for Steven Spielberg’s upcoming blockbuster, ‘Disclosure Day,’ starring Josh O’Connor and Emily Blunt (2:11). Then, they discuss what their expectations are for the Oscars broadcast (9:36) and break down who they think will win, and should win every award (19:12). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Producers: Jack Sanders Production Support: Lucas Cavanagh Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can choose to bundle and save with the Personal Price Plan®️. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there®️. Drivers wanted. Learn more at vw.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One plus one equals more of the greatest stories. Hulu on Disney Plus. Stories about survivors. The most dangerous planet. Family. Retribution. Murder. Prophecy.

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Have it all with Hulu on Disney Plus. I'm Sean Fennacy. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is the big. picture a conversation show about our final Oscar predictions. Today on the show, we are going through all 24 races to make our predictions of who will win and who should win at the 98th Academy Awards. Are you ready, Amanda? Have you made your picks? I'm done. I'm locked in. I just made my final decision and wrote it into the dock right now. What if I convince you to change your pick?

As I was saying to Jack before we started recording, I'm not that impressionable. We'll see about that. Programming note on Sunday night, we will see you before the Academy Awards, live on Instagram at 3 p.m. PT, 6 p.m. E.T. where we will talk about these predictions, the red carpet, last minute thoughts, a lot more. It'll be a lot of fun. I encourage you to stay tuned. We are planning something funny. And then immediately after the telecast, we are coming to you live on Netflix to break down all the awards.

That's live on Netflix right after the Academy Awards. We will be there for you. Also, I'll be at the South by Southwest Film Festival. interviewing Stephen Spielberg on Friday. Yeah. Very normal week for you. I'm doing my best. I'm hanging in there. I really need the airlines to keep it together, which I would hope I didn't jinx that this is not wood. Find some real wood. Knock on it for all of us.

Maybe I should just run to Austin and run back. That's probably the safest bet. But I will be there. I'm excited for the keynote. excited to talk to Stephen. Come say hi if you see me in Austin. Speaking of Spielberg, we got a new look at Disclosure Day, which will break down right after this. This episode of The Big Picture is presented by State Farm. Sure, being an expert and movie trivia is impressive. You know it's even more impressive? Being smart about saving money.

And a great way to do that is by saving when you choose to bundle home and auto with the State Farm personal price plan. Bundling. Just another way to save with the personal price plan. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts, and savings. And eligibility vary by state. Okay, Amanda.

Yeah. I've seen the new Disclosure Day trailer. You have not. Yes. You are abstaining from further info. With all respect to your close personal friend, Stephen Spielberg, which, listen, by the way, before we get to the trailer, it's an amazing picture. Oh, yeah. Really genuinely very good, flattering of both of you. It's just, like, printed out, put it on a Christmas card. It was, yes, I met Stephen before our conversation. We had it, we hung out for a little bit. Yeah. It was a nice time. Could you tell I was very. happy? Yeah, but that's, I'm saying it, you know, it captured a moment. It was lovely.

It really, we could make a big picture Christmas card, you know? Well, yeah, but we got to get you in there. No, it would be fine. You just, it's the two of you, and it's like, I'm a parent, and you just sign it, you know, happy holidays from Sean, Amanda and Stephen. Sure. And then on the back, you were like, 2026 was a big year for the big picture. We went live on Netflix.

We got to go to Cannes. We found our third chair in Steven Spielberg. Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. But so you're not, you're, you don't want to. So with all respect to Steven Spielberg, to Disclosure Day, to the vital theatrical experience, to Michael Moses and everyone at Universal who are like working very hard. Yes. I know enough. I don't want to know anymore.

Show me the movie. Okay. I did watch it. You're going to have to hear me talk about it momentarily. Are you going to spoil it? In a way, yeah. Are you going to, okay. I'm just going to float some, some additional things that have been shared with us in this.

trailer and how that's interesting to me and why I'm so hopeful about this movie. One, I think before all we really understood was that this was an event movie of some kind that almost certainly involved alien life forms, right? We heard the clicking sound coming out of Emily Blunt's mouth. We got this sense that Josh O'Connor had some information. The trailer reveals that O'Connor is kind of an Edward Snowden-esque whistleblower figure who has got his arms around some data. He is responsible for collecting that data.

analyzing it, it seems like, and now he's going to let the world know what he knows, which I guess is that aliens are on this planet, maybe, which is kind of fascinating. And I think the thing that the trailer is showing us now is that the movie is much more grounded in the real world. There's implications of the Roswell, Area 51 cover up in the trailer. You know, the movie clearly seems to be about governmental distrust, how power operates. The timing of this is incredibly funny, given that we're just like a month removed from Barack Obama, accidentally revealing his knowledge of UFOs?

I was genuinely about to ask you, is Barack Obama doing like guerrilla marketing for Disclosure Day? I don't think that's the case, but it was a wonderful moment for this movie because, you know, there is this sense in our culture. And the movie is clearly tapping into that that we're not being told everything.

And the movie is using crop circles and alien flying through the clouds that may or may not be, or an alien ship, I should say, that may or may not be a UFO or a EPA, as they're known, or UAP is they're known now. You know, even that, like, that clip... Is their own...

What is, what does that mean? UAP, unidentified... Aviatory, something like that. You can look it up while I'm riffing here. The movie is clearly giving us a little bit of invasion of the body snatchers, too. And I think there's a sense that Emily Blunt's character, something is happening to her that she doesn't realize. Not that she's an alien, but that something has overtaken her. Right.

And those images that we saw in the first trailer of, that seems sort of like almost like hallmark CGI of like the glowing home and the elk entering the house and the bird, that those appear more to be like memories of her childhood and not like a linear sequence in the events of the film. So that there's a reason that they sort of look like that. Yes. Again, this is speculation based on a two and a half minute trailer. One thing I've learned in my life, never doubt Steven Spielberg.

Yeah, same. There's one really cool thing. The third chair of the big picture podcast. Your boy Colin Firth is in this movie. Yeah. He plays, he appears to be some combination of Pete Heggseth and Elon Musk. Okay. I'm not going to say anything else beyond that, but he uses, I'm just going to say,

bio-virtual technology to appear in Eve Houston's home and control her body. And it's a very fascinating sequence and feels like kind of classical Spielberg, where it's kind of very unnerving, you're on the edge of your seat, observing what they've created. And it's spooky. Like, it's very effective. And I think it indicates that, like, is there some sort of tech world slash governmental mass conspiracy going on?

Coleman Domingo, I think, is going to be the sort of, like, key conspiracy drumbanger, you know, the guy who's like, hey, everybody, please, we need to know the truth. That's pretty much all I got. And I'm feeling excited. The movie is obviously operating in a close-in-county. but 50 years later context. That's cool and exciting and, you know.

Full circle? Fun, exactly, and fun to delve in with Spielberg. Yeah, yeah. Even in talking with Stephen this week, like, thinking about the arc of his relationship to this genre is something that I think we'll spend some time on when we talk on Friday. And, you know, those movies just kind of shaped my taste

and the genres that I'm into and how I think about the world. And American, if not global filmmaking, for the past 30 years? Yes, and I think also it's so fun. I mean, I'm, you know, I'm spoiling a conversation I haven't had yet. But, like, in 1977, close encounters is one of the more optimistic looks at this time, which is also concurring alongside, you know, Alan Pakula movies. And now I feel like as time has gone by, Spielberg is becoming more suspicious.

Yes. Of how the world works. Less optimistic. Right. Less open-minded. And you can really track it over time shifting around 2000 or so. I think that's exactly right. This century has been very much about some unease with how power operates.

So very excited for this movie and very excited for Friday. Okay. Are we able to, when will we be able, those of us not in Austin? When will we be able to consume that conversation? Will we be able to? Yes, on this feed. Okay. I don't know when that's going to be.

Okay. Hopefully soon. We're working on it. Jack, when's that going to be? Don't spoil it. Okay. I just wanted to make sure that for everyone who can't be in Austin. I've gotten some emails being like, hey, so you're going to be in Austin.

I will not be in Austin. Do you wish you were? Listen, I had a great time, the time that we went. I am really concerned about your turnaround time and Jack's turnaround time. And I'm just imagining the two of you in a van, like driving from Austin, like all the way back to Los Angeles overnight. Would you be able to make it, like time-wise? Is it less than 48 hours that drive? I don't know.

Yeah, less than 48, I think so. I'm not worried. I've never been more locked in in my entire life. And then we're filming it. And then that's our first big picture documentary, which is the two of you in a bus, trying to make it back for Oscars night. Well, I can't speak for Jack, but assuming that I can get this cleared by TSA, I will be bringing my Mandalorian jet pack with me as a carry-on.

And so I'll just, I'll fly back if I have to. Jack, we can't, we can't count on him. But there are people who can help out back here in the office in case you don't make it, right, Jack? Absolutely. Okay. The Academy Awards are happening on Sunday. That's why I need you back. Yeah.

I'll be back. It'll be fine. Expectations for the show. Simple opening question. Do you think this will be a good show? Yes. Okay. I do.

Here's what we know. Limited. First of all, here's the most important thing. Conan O'Brien, who hosted last year, is returning and is a wonderful host. We are accolites of Conan fans. Of Conan. We grew up watching. I like the vibe.

It's a good combination of safe pair of hands. old, like, skilled television presenter and, you know, throwing like a fun elbow in here and there, but never in a mean way, just in sort of a sharp, smart way. So I'm looking forward to that. We know that there will be two original song performances and two only. Yes, the two good ones. The two good ones and the two good ones that have broader appeal. Golden is going to get its moment. Everyone in my house is really excited for that. My 18-month-old son can say golden now. Wow.

So, and he requested in the car up, up, up. So it's really, we're late. Okay. But I think a lot of people and a lot of younger people would tune in for that. I agree. It's got to come in the first 90 minutes of the telecast. Yeah. And I also, like, I don't know if it'll be in the same tone as I'm just can, but it does seem like one of those moments where you can use the spectacle of the show to bring some energy.

Do you think it will open the show? I feel like that's possible. Hmm, it could. Because if you think about the theme, the theme of the song and the lyrics of the song and the idea of like announcing... We're going up, up, up, it's our moment. Yeah. It just...

It feels like a good opening moment for the show. Not unlike when... Remember when Justin Timberlake sang the Trolls song at the beginning of the telecast like five years ago? Which sounds ridiculous, but that was actually a good way to open the show. It gave us a lot of energy. It was a famous person right up top. Yeah.

I do think they need to kick off like that. Sure. I think that the performance of Golden will be superior to Justin Timberlake doing the Trolls song. I hope so. What's that song called? Is Anna Kendrick...

It's called Let It Be. It's a beautiful ballad. Thank you. Oh, my God. Think about... Can't stop the feeling. Can't stop... Oh, it's so annoying.

I can hear right now. Every once in a while after I'm listening to like good kids music, Spotify algorithm tries to... to give me that song and it's a hard no for me. My children will not learn about that. We've created an incredible demarcation line around trolls. No trolls content has come into our home. It's not, I'm not a fan. I think that's great. One of the weirdest episodes we've ever done was when me, you and Rob Harvilla talked about the trolls movie during COVID. I have completely forgotten everything uttered.

Oh yeah, which was like about Poptimism? It was. It was Troops 2. Uh-huh. That was trolls World Tour. Yes. Which is another, it's one of the rural jurors hard, just very hard for me to say. I also learned that moral Burrow is hard for me to say. Marlboro. Yes, because a woman came into my Pilates class in a Marlboro Reds sweatshirt. And I was like, this is sick. It's really funny because I think of you as a gal, a young gal who like really went to finishing school, you know? Thank you. Yeah. And but for whatever reason, there's some consonants that are a struggle. I'm an American. Yeah. But elocution, that's my

skill. The R's are very challenging for me and like across languages. Interesting. Yeah. I don't know. Maybe that's why you went French and not Spanish. The rolling R would be a challenge. Sure. I mean, I can roll it, but like the French, like the, you know, it's really tough. That's good. That'll be our thumbnail. That was disgusting. Yeah.

Well, listen. Back to the show. I think it's possible that Golden could open the show. Yeah. I lied to you feels like a big centerpiece in the middle of the show. Right. And Miles Caton will be performing. Yes, he will.

Along many other, I think Brittany Howard will be a part of that as well. Sounds like Jamie Lawson will be on stage during that as well. So I think it'll be a pretty fun. Is Misty Copeland confirmed? She is confirmed. Which is a ballerina. An amazing sub-tweet because in addition to Misty Copeland is being one of the most celebrated American ballerinas, she was also one of the first people to pose in a Marty Supreme Jacket. Wow.

Interesting. Yeah. And didn't she used to date F1 driver, who's the most famous F1 driver in the world? Louis Hamilton. Thank you. Did they date? I don't know. about that.

Who Lewis Hamilton is quote unquote dating or not dating. It just seems a little based on like who needs photo ops at a given time. I just mean Misty has a unique relationship to a lot of the best picture nominees this year. I do. Because Lewis Hamilton is a producer of F1. Yes, I have Googled Misty Copeland, Lewis Hamilton, and I'm not finding any results. Okay. I misspoke then. But you know what Misty Copeland has done?

Be amazing at ballet. Got it. I'm excited to see her. Yeah. Presumably she's not like playing the banjo. she's going to dance during that performance. And then during the commercial break right after that, I will be performing train dreams from the film Train Dreams.

So we'll go live on IG with that. Right, Jack? That'll be good? 100%. Okay, cool. Other things we should expect. You know what? I was on Bill Simmons's podcast this week talking about the show, the telecast.

We talked a bit about the in-memorium. A long-time fascination of his, and we talked about what they might do. And he pitched an interesting idea, which I hope they do, which is, you know, we had speculated that there might be an entire, moment dedicated to Robert Redford because we know Barbara Streisand is going to perform, presumably, memory, we heard. It's been, it was reported, it was speculated with some knowledge. Right. But he said maybe there should be four or five individual breakout moments for Robert Redford, Diane Keaton, Robert Duvall, Gene Hackman, Rob Reiner. We have a number of very venerated

veterans of Hollywood who passed away in the last 12 months. I think that'd be cool. I think that would be appropriate. The number of people who have, been, who are connected to those individuals who have been reported to be coming back to the Oscars, suggests that it would be at least individual moments as opposed to being cramped altogether, just from a time perspective. I agree. I would just, I know you don't care, but I would love to see it like a real clip reel, like a two and a half minute clip reel for each person that is just like, here is the

totality of these people's, all these people who lived into their 70s and 80s, you know, who worked for 50 years. This is what they put on screen. Let's be clear about my feelings about clip reels. I think I don't mind and even enjoy a well-edited montage, which is what you are describing. What I think is fruitless and often counterproductive are the four-second acting bites that show up of people just screaming at the top of their lungs, contextless, before. That's not acting. That's not communicating what these performers did so well.

We agree to disagree. I have no idea what you're talking about. I think that's insane. Run time of the show. How long you think we're going to be in? We were doing this ourselves a bit because we were trying to figure out when we would go live on YouTube. That's right. 337.

Last year's telecast was three hours and 50 minutes. Wow. Will this be longer? You think this would be shorter? Well, how many performances did they do last year? I can't. I think a. around the same number.

Yeah. They've been scaling it back, which is good. Okay. So, almost four hours for, what I would describe as a slightly more subdued Oscars than this year's will be.

I think there's a lot of energy around the race this year. I don't know if the ratings are going to be higher, and I'll ask you about that in a second, but does feel like one battle and sinners are two very widely seen movies relative to something like a Nora,

which dominated last year. So, I don't know. Four hours feels in play. But they also added a category, too. Yeah, it's a good point, Jack. That's 24 categories. to give out. Okay, then we're going to have to start thinking about like snacks pacing over the course of the

night. I want to do sugarfish. Can we just do sugarfish? Oh, for dinner? Yeah, absolutely. But then this is four hours. Yeah. And then you got to keep the blood sugar up.

We'll get a mojito going for you. Don't worry. Ratings, up or down. I think they were slightly down last year. So where do they go this year? I mean, no one's ever gotten richer by predicting that the Oscars ratings would go up. So you're right, but golden and sinners are two big flashing check this out thing going on. I agree.

I mean, I think it's going to honestly be like, yeah, like a matter of decimal points. Yeah. I think you're right. I don't know. It's kind of a quiet time in sports right now and that's something else I was thinking about. There's not a whole, there's not a big HBO Sunday night show at the moment. It's not competing with really anything right now. especially if the USA is eliminated from the World Baseball Classic.

Did you see what happened last night in the World Baseball Classic? I did not know that the World Baseball Classic was happening. What an absolute fiasco. They lost to Italy, 8 to 6. The United States manager believed they had already moved on to the elimination round. So there's a suggestion that maybe he set the lineup based on the fact that they thought that they had already advanced. And now based on the outcome, I'm sure the outcome of Italy and Mexico will have happened by the time people listen to this. But anyway, just as a baseball fan last night, I was like, what the hell is going on here?

Who's on the U.S. team? Well, quite a few people. Yeah, the United States. Bryce Harper. Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, some major stars. Okay. Neither of whom came through in a big spot last night. Challenging times.

Anyway, moving on. Here's an interesting precursor question to our predictions. How many Oscars will sinners win? I have an answer, based on my predictions. Do you want me to give that? Or that seems like spoiling it? More or less than two? More.

More or less than three? More. Okay. What about how many Oscars will one battle after another win? I didn't count. But I did sort of in the shower this morning. I don't know an exact number. More or less than three?

More. More or less than four? More. Intriguing. Yeah. Okay. My theory, and maybe this is a good segue, we were very anxious last night.

This is an exciting year, a really cool year, and also for two people who don't like to be wrong, in public or private, a vexing year. And so we were texting last night at like 945 about various categories in which we still hadn't made a decision in which we didn't know what to do. And we both shared the sentiment that it's not adding up in a way that makes sense to us. That's right.

The aggregate is not accurate. The balance, as you said, is not balancing. And I think some of that is because we use our long, you know, our decades of Oscar nerdism and what the Academy has done before and how these races usually play out to shape how we make our predictions. And I think in about half the categories, that's useful. And otherwise, I think it's going to be a really different year. And I think a lot of the norms that we expect and a lot even of the precursors, or the bellwethers are wrong or shifting you another way.

That's it. So I had to make my own piece with what my ballot looks like as a whole. Because at 945 last night when I was like, I really need to start my wind down, which is like an hour of no, you know, I can't be this anxious about it. When I was looking at it, I was like, this doesn't, there's not an internal logic here. according to my internal logic of what the Oscars should be and what a ballot should be and what the quote-unquote Academy does. And I had to let it go, you know? I admire that. I have obviously, I think you and I are similarly organized in our mind, but I think the way that I live my life is even more organized.

And I'm a spreadsheet person. I'm a precedential person. I'm very rooted in the history of the Oscars as much the recent history as the distant history. And we're going to talk about the distant history today because of some of the things

that could come up based on some of these collisions. And I'm married to an actuary. You know, her father is a math professor, her sister is a math professor. Like, I'm very interested in this sort of statistics and the data and the history of this, but also that there is feelings involved

in this kind of voting. And this year, the war, so to speak, is between vibes and precedent and what the two trains colliding. And they are represented in some ways in two distinct films. I wouldn't say one film is a vibes film and one film is a data film, but just what's gone on in the last six months. And we've been talking about this for a very long time. And I feel justified in how much time we've devoted to this stuff because it's been interesting this year. For the first time in a while, it's been really, really interesting. I find myself right before the predictions feeling not very brave.

that's what I'll say. Okay. I am the child of two lawyers. So for me, precedent is just something that keeps you from having fun all of the time. It is a legal tool to limit the possibility of life. And I do also think that some of what informed my thinking is that in the past few years as the economy has gotten bigger. and more international and just the sheer numbers and the number of people, it moves less like one solid group of people.

And in fact, it just has become more chaotic. And it's more and more different types of voters and interests and preferences. Yes, the homogeneity has been washed out of the academy, at least relative to what it was 15 years ago. Yes. And that's certainly true in terms of... Race, nationality, gender-ish, age-ish, you know, like they're, all of them is, honestly. I think there are still, it's still predominantly like older white people, let's be real.

How many, this is a random thing I was thinking about last night. How many Gen Z members of the Academy do you think there are? Zero, a hundred? Just a guess. Is Jennifer Lawrence, Gen Z, no. No. Who are the youngest people? Emma Stone is not Jen Z.

Is Rachel Zegler in the academy? Did she get added when she... That's a very good question. Rachel Zegler, are you in the academy? Academy member. Let's Google this right now. I would guess fewer than 100. I bring this up for a reason. She's presented, but I don't know whether... Probably not, I would guess. You'd be surprised the number of people who have done a lot of work who are not in the academy.

In fact, I know a nominee who's not in the academy, and he's going to be on this show later this year. Oh, exciting. Interesting fact. I bring this up because Oscar discourse It's Stephen Spielberg It's not Steven Spielberg I assure you Steven Spielberg for the record

Won the Irving Thalberg Award The Honorary Award that is not given out every year In 1987 39 years ago He won the honorary Oscar Schindler's List in Jurassic Park Yes before he won Best Director That's crazy town

He wasn't even 40 Anyway I asked this because the discourse is very noisy this year. And there's a lot of discussion about what's actually happening. And it does feel like there is a flood of people who have only been paying attention to the Oscars

for, say, 25 years or 22 years instead of 50 years. And that could be an advantage or it could be a disadvantage in terms of what's really happening with the race right now. How much of what's happening is real or how much of it is online?

Yes. We don't know. We don't know. We stand a thwart history saying, I don't know. but I'm going to try to make a prediction. Okay. So let's start. Okay.

24 categories we're going to go through every single one. I figured we'd start with some general individual film categories. It's fun. You've paced this well. Thank you. The first category is animated feature film. The nominees are as follows. Arco, L.E.O., K-pop demon hunters,

Little Amelie, or the character of Rain and Zutopia 2. We'll win and should win. Yeah. You can go first and maybe we'll alternate back and forth. Okay. Great. will win K-pop demon hunters and should win. And I have now seen all five.

And I just want to let you know that my version of hell is watching Little Amelie or the character of rain with a four-year-old who just keeps me like, who is that? I told you my story about this. Allison asked a single question. Well, so now when you rent them, both Arco and Little Amelie are available to rent, which we did. But we rented the dubbed versions. Oh, I see. Will Farrell is in the Arco dubbed version. I was like, hey.

I mean, many famous people are, but that was a voice moment. Anyway, no, my son, bless him, fully became Jesse Buckley and Hamnet at the end of, but like being like, what's going on for Little Amelie? And it was a true nightmare. Do you watch Arco? No, he went to bed and then I watched it. I think he might have liked it. I think it would play Alice didn't watch it either.

Yeah, anyway, should win K-pop Demon Hunters, which is dynamite. It's a banger, yeah. We match on that. Those were both of my picks as well It is, I guess, kind of interesting that Zootopia 2 didn't make any kind of late-breaking push here Because... Because it stinks.

I just disagree. And it's also really liked, and it's a huge hit. That's true. Listen, my son wanted to buy the snake bucket. That doesn't make it art. I was talking about animated movies for the rest of the year, and there's not really a Zootopia 2 coming in the fall. There is a Disney original movie called Hext.

Okay. You up on this? No. Is it about witches? One assumes? I hope so. I don't know. A Disney original in that Thanksgiving slot, though. Interesting. Okay, let's go to International Feature Film. The nominees are as follows from Brazil, The Secret Agent, from France.

It was just an accident from Norway, sentimental value from Spain, Surat, and from Tunisia, the voice of Hind Rajab. Did you struggle with this one at all? This is one of my highlighted. I'm going to change it last minute, but I'm not. Okay. I'll go first. Yes. Will win sentimental value. should win the Secret Agent. We match.

Okay. So what informed that thinking? Sentimental value is nominated in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and with four acting nominations. People really like that movie. We spent a lot of time on Oscar and Om's Morning being like, sentimental value wave, like, here it really comes. And I think that just the sheer numbers of it propel it, Secret Agent is nominated in Best Picture,

and also Wagner. Fagnamora is nominated for Best Actor. And it's nominated for casting. So there is like appreciation for it. But I think sentimental value, I mean, it has more nominations. And also if you're imagining the person who actually sits down, who hadn't seen these movies before nominations sits down and watches both of them, I think that sentimental value is going to be an easier ask.

I think so too. But I feel like I am betraying myself in Brazil. I am betraying both myself and the nation of Brazil. I think this is a coin flip. Yeah. Yelkeem Trir, a previous nominee. I think that helps him. I think he has campaigned very effectively.

It's extremely well liked. If you go through the list of nominees' favorite movies of the year, a lot of them, you'll hear, say, sentimental value. That's an interesting indicator of something. I think you're right that the raft of nominations that it has is notable. They don't have a lot of wins. They have not won a lot of precursors. So you've got that Stone Scars Guard, Golden Globe win is very memorable, but there's not a lot of victories for this movie over that period of time.

So it's not as though it has like a dramatic advantage over the secret agent. Is there any part of you that thinks there could be like a wild? It was just an accident in a voice of Henry Job moment here. Anything could happen. But I, you know, when all else fails, when you don't know, I like you, do ground myself in the numbers. Yeah, the only thing that crossed my mind is just it's been such a dramatic and traumatic six weeks. in Iran.

And, you know, first the protests and then the awful murder of protesters and then the strikes from Israel and the United States. And there's just so much unrest in that space and so many people who are so angry about what's happening in that part of the world right now that I don't know if that could boost the movie like this. I mean, it's so strange to conflate real world consequences. But listen, it's, I mean, it has been an escalating six weeks for sure, but none of that is new.

and it did not, and certainly not in the last six months. Yeah. And Jafar Panahi won the, and it was just an accident won the palm and then has been pretty much blanked throughout. Yeah. Was threatened, you know, with imprisonment when he returns to Iran and it still didn't get him. Yeah. So I don't know. I mean, certainly the U.S. has escalated in absolutely terrible ways.

And Oscar voters do like to vote for some of their, vote their politics through that. but I don't know it just doesn't seem to have caught on. I think you're right. Amazing movie. I'm a huge fan. I would be really excited. Siting if it won.

This is a good collection of nominees. This category is sometimes a bit wonky and I really like it this year. Probably in part because neon just plug four of the five nominees. Documentary feature film. The nominees are the Alabama solution. Come see me in the good light.

Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin and the Perfect Neighbor. Not my favorite group of nominees. We talked about it. last week on the show. Will win the perfect neighbor, should win the Alabama solution. That's exactly what I had. Yeah.

I would say it's a kind of a mild enthusiasm for the Alabama solution too. I think that Alabama solution is competent and important. And further is really important work that, you know, a lot of people are already doing in an additive way. The perfect neighbor we talked about on the documentary episode, it's certainly the most widely seen, the buzziest. It, you know, it was distributed by Netflix. I guess, I mean, it's interesting, and the emotions and conversations that it elicits are worth further discussion. We both felt a little strange about it. I don't think that the voters are going to feel as strange about it.

I'm not ruling out Mr. Nobody against Putin. There is a long track record of Russia-related films winning in this category. You can think about Icarus. you can think about what is Modislov Chernoff's previous film before 20,000 meters to And Drivka? 20 days from Mary Paul. Yeah. There is, I think there are certain sectors of the world that this category sometimes speaks to. And it's not always, there's some consistency there.

And I think also Mr. Nobody Against Putin has a watchability factor that is maybe behind. the perfect neighbor, but is probably in second place in this category. Yeah. And so I won't be shocked. I don't think I'll be thrilled if it wins, but I won't be shocked. She's standing on stage at the Oscars while everyone else is still in the most polluted town in Russia. Great. Not ideal.

I didn't realize that that film was also the submission by Denmark for international feature film, which is kind of fascinating about you because of the origins of the filmmakers. Anyhow, we'll see how that one shakes out. Okay, original score. The nominees are Jerskine Fendrix for Bologna, Alexander Desplot for Frankenstein, Max Richter for Hamnet, Johnny Greenwood for one battle after another,

and Ludwig Gorensen for sinners. Wait, is it... Oh, yeah, it's your turn. It's my turn. Will win Ludwig Gorensen for sinners? I'm zagging Jerskin Fendricks for Bagonia. Is who should win? Just the score I like.

We agree on Will win, Ludwig Gorensen for sinners. And should win is Daniel Lapton. for Marty Supreme. Okay. Well, that's not really how this works. This is our show. We can do what we want.

Okay. If that's where you want to be, I mean, you can do that for every category. I'm doing it for this one. Okay. The score branch is on notice. What does that mean? Like, what are the consequences of that?

What are you going to do to them? You're going to hurt them? No. You're going to scold them publicly? I'm a pacifist. Yes, I'm going to scold them publicly, and I'm going to keep meddling it. Do you think you can make change within the academy?

Do you think you're possible? I think I'm 41 years of proof that you absolutely cannot. What do you mean? Here you are. Shining. Okay. Here's the next category is evidence that there is nothing I can do, even though this will be a deserving winner.

So in the race for how many Oscars does sinners get, this would be the first one. Yes. Okay. Original song. Here are the nominees. Dear Me from Diane Warren, Relentless. Remember when I told you that I saw every single one

of the Oscar nominees? I lied. I have not seen this and I will not see it. Golden from K-pop Demon Hunters. I lied to you from sinners. Sweet dreams of joy from Viva Verde. Train dreams from train dreams. What do you got?

Will win, golden, should win, golden. Did you consider I lied to you for should win? No, because at 755 this morning, the only way I got my son's shoes on his feet. was promising a Golden dance party at the end of it. Wow. And then everybody joined in. Baby, me.

I still don't know all the words, but up, up, up, listen. That shit hits. Can't argue with that. Also, both I lie to you and Golden obey the rule of it is a song that is like material to the film itself, as opposed to just being intact on at the end. Agreed. So I like both of them. this is a rare good year for a category that for the most part exists to take Oscars away from Duelipa.

I think this is one of the only super locks of the whole night. Okay. I hope so because I explained to my four-year-old that this song was going to win a trophy. And now every time he listens to it, he says, win the trophy, they win the trophy. So there's going to be a lot. We're going to learn about loss on Sunday, if not. Well, I mean, honestly, this is just great for the Academy. This is how you get little kids hooked on the Oscars.

Like, I've been taking Alice to the Academy Museum, and we go into that room where all of the Oscars are on display. And then there's a room where you see a series of acceptance speeches and you see some of the outfits, the gown, some of the envelopes that people opened. There's a way to kind of build some intrigue for young people around these awards. I think that's how I got started was just kind of getting interested in what my mom was watching on TV on that Sunday night every year and trying to feel. figure out why that mattered. So this is a way to say, hey, this is something I should watch. Next year when it's like Diane Warren alone singing a song as the opening song to the show, it's not going to be as effective. But this year, they should take advantage of it. Okay. Wait, did you officially give your pick for that? Yes. We'll win.

Okay. I'm just making sure. Listen. Golden, you know what? You're on the spreadsheet, man. Let's get it, you know. We have to use this against you later on. So. If Golden doesn't win, I'll be very surprised. Me too. Okay. Next category. Let's let's go to the show. shorts. Mm-hmm. The dreaded shorts. Yes.

You watched all the shorts? I did. Did you like any of the shorts? I did. There was one that, and it's in our next category. Okay. That I was deeply moved by. Okay.

And it's in my should win, so I can, it's, is it your turn or it's your turn? So you read the nominees. I'll read the nominees. Yeah. For best documentary short, the nominees are all the empty rooms, armed only with the camera the life and death of Brent Renaud. Children know more were and are gone. The devil is busy and perfectly astrangeness.

Yes. Okay. So I have will win all the empty rooms and should win perfectly a strangeness. Okay. Whatever. Like that's, they, you know, put some cameras on a donkey. I enjoy that. Or put cameras on many donkeys. Here's the thing.

I would like for the doc branch to change their conception of what good documentary is. And good documentary is not all. always issues-oriented journalism. That's not only what documentary can be. The fact that this film, perfectly estranged us, which is this sort of like exploratory nature documentary about wildlife living near some sort of astronomy space,

I thought was really interesting and fun to watch in a way that is different from all these films. Now, this is a pretty good category, I thought. I thought the nominees were pretty solid this year. But they bear a similar tonal way, They do. They do. They do.

I think picking the wordless donkey documentary, which was like experiential. That would be fine on the side of, that would be fine in a museum, you know, and you'd wander into a room and you'd be like, now I have the perspective of a donkey. I disagree. I also have will win all the empty rooms. Should win, the devil is busy. Okay. Which is, as you were saying, I, in some ways in issues-driven documentary, it's about, you know, it follows a Planned Parenthood Clinic in Atlanta.

And it's directed by Gita Gannberg, who also directed The Perfect Neighbor and Crystal in Hampton. And it's exploring the setbacks, the rollbacks in women's health care and, yes, abortion, following the overturning of Rovi Wade and what that looks like for a clinic on the ground. So, sure. Focus tightly on a security officer within the space. But here's the thing. But here's the thing. It is about all those things. It is about issues. But it is about a woman named Tracy who is the head of security.

And I was knocked out by Tracy. And it's one of the examples of finding the right subject and finding someone who illuminates. And what Tracy illuminates about the day-to-day life at this clinic is important and outrageous, you know, outrageous and frustrating. And she's the first person there in the morning, and she has to make sure that all of the cars that are people waiting are, you know, people who have appointments and not people with guns. And she's like, make sure you check the bags. You know, the day-to-hour risk that she puts herself in is quite frightening. But it's really just the way that she goes about doing her job and doing her job despite the impossibility that the government. and America and everything has set out for her and the lack of funding and just the specifics and the care and the matter of factness. She calls everyone guests. She puts out the while.

I just, I was so, so moved by her. And I'm like, I don't know if this film deserves an Oscar. Tracy deserves much more than an Oscar, but I, like, I've thought about it every day since. Well, that's the thing. I mean, so that's an issue and something that feels very personal to you. And that is often what this category and these kinds of categories do. But it's not about the issue. It's about this person.

Sure. There are many of these people working. But they're within the context of something that does matter to you. I guess. But sure. But like in health care, in education, there are many people who have like so much going on in their own lives. And they just like do their job and try to help other people. And they are never, never given a spotlight.

And like that is genuinely what it is. There are many tracies in the world. They don't all get documentaries. I thought she was wonderful. I won't argue with that. All the empty rooms, we should say, which is the odds on favor to win in this category. It's also a very emotional film.

It follows Steve Hartman, the CBS News correspondent as he travels with a photographer embarking on a journey to memorialize the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings and speak to the families and create this kind of news media piece that represents this, you know, awful wave of,

70 years of school shootings that we've had that primarily takes place in this country and the rage and the despair that kind of comes across those two things. Just a handful of Oscar voters I've talked to. This movie resonated very deeply with them. It does seem like this is likely to... And this is also a Netflix film,

so it is very easily accessible as well. You never know with the shorts. It's often very hard to predict, but this one feels right. The devil is busy and armed only with a camera are currently available on HBO Max. Correct.

Children No More is not available to view on for free. And perfectly a strangeness is coming to the Criterion channel I believe next month. Either this month, or maybe it's available right now? Is it Criterion or is it Canopy?

It may be on Canopy, but it's on the Criterion channel. Yes, you're right. Okay, live action short film. It's been a little while since I've seen these. So you'll have to help remind me a little bit, but you'll be able to predict first.

I've now reverted back to, I don't like these shorts categories. Understood. Tracy had her moment. I had some time for a couple of these. Okay. Live action short film, the nominees are Butchers Stain, a friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen's period drama, the singers, and two people exchanging saliva. I believe Will Win is two people exchanging saliva.

I think that's my should win. I think this and the singers, I both thought, were kind of interesting. I didn't love either of these films, but I liked them enough. I did not enjoy the other three. And I found a couple of them to be like borderline bad. Yes. Jane Austen's period drama, get out of here. It was horrible, I thought. Well, it's just, it's like an S&L sketch. Yes. But one of the not as funny ones stretched out over 12 minutes. Couldn't agree more. I don't care about it. You know, and with like a real like girl, ball. Let's talk about it.

Not my type of humor. I have Will win two people exchanging saliva and should win the best first feature Oscar. Like get out. Like, let's just, let's get out of this. Let's make a first feature. And odd because this is the category where it's like people are trying out what they can do. Well, two people exchanging saliva is really interesting. This is also the odds on favorite in this category.

It's a film, you know, it's kind of an absurdist romance set in a world where kissing is. is illegal and slaps in the face our currency. And it's an unusual movie. It feels very Yorgos Lanthamos. Yeah. It's black and white. It's a French film. It's gotten some very strong reviews. The woman who is the star of Ali Abasi's Holy Spider is the star of this movie. Her name is Zara Amir Ebrahemi.

And she's really good in the movie. It does feel like a road test for a feature. and it felt like it could be a feature and maybe will be a feature. Right. And to your point about the best first feature, like, it's the most fully formed film. Yeah.

And there is an art to being able to make a 14-minute narrative feature that works really well. I didn't really feel like these other nominees did a great job of that. The singers is really more of like a mood piece. It's about like a sing-off and a bar amongst a group of men.

And it's really more like a stylistic accomplishment to me. It looks very beautiful. the performances are interesting. It doesn't have the same, here's what we're trying to say about the world quality. It's just kind of nice to watch for 13 minutes and then you move on with your day. Butchers thing I think is very heavy

and at times a little heavy-handed. Correct. And a friend of Dorothy, I thought it was nice for Miriam Margulies to just have a moment like that who's had a very long career, I think of her most, is the angry mother who shoots, accidentally shoots

her son who is falling off of a roof in the film Magnolia. Okay. An actress who's been around for a very long time. So it's a nice platform for her, but, you know, I think two people exchanging saliva and the singers are at least kind of interesting. And was this an easy pick for you? I think the two people exchanging saliva has enough, as you said, it's the quote-unquote most mature or it has the most like grabby look at me doing cinema stuff. You know, it is in, it looks very nice. It's in black and white.

It has a lot of strange ideas. You want to try to figure out what's going on. So it made a lot of sense. It's being distributed by The New Yorker. So I heard from Madison at the New Yorker after my short slights. Wow. Great humor. I'm excited for Madison.

Thank you. You know what? And thank you to the New Yorker for at least making these available. Agreed. That is a nice thing. If you're going to do this, these movies should at least be widely available. Let's do the last shorts category. It's Best Animated Short.

The nominees are Butterfly, A.K.A. Papillon, Forever Green, the Girl Who Cried Pearl's Retirement Plan, and the Three Sisters. Yes. Now, you're not historically an animation person? I'm learning and I'm growing. That's true. You are learning and growing. Not a short person either.

Yes. Would you make of this crop? There were some things that were nice to look at. And I found myself, I'm not an animation person, but I'm heavy in illustrated children's books right now. And so, and spending a lot of time with the varying styles of artwork in those books. Because we recently tried to switch to chapter books and not except being like, well, so where are the pictures? So I found myself responding to the, to the animation more as art and more to the styles that I thrill. too. I have to assume that's Papillon. Yeah. So I think Papillon will win. Yes. I'm predicting it to win. I am as well. It's a

beautifully hand-painted movie about a Jewish swimmer named Alfred Nakash who survived the Holocaust. You know, there's obviously a long history of Holocaust-related films doing well at the Academy Awards. I don't think that's the, you know, the only reason, the primary reason why this movie would win. I think it's very visually distinct. Yes. From a lot of these other films, some of which you use traditional hand-drawing animation, some of which use 3D animation. this just feels like a different kind of artistic experience. Yes. It's beautiful and very captivating and short. Yeah. And I think conveys its story and its message without being heavy-handed either. So I think that's going to win.

Honestly, if you told me the girl who cried pearls or retirement plan won, I wouldn't be surprised. Same. Retirement plan has won a lot of festival presentations. It's very funny. And I liked it. Yeah. I enjoyed it. I thought it was very funny.

Shout it again to the New Yorker for making it available. I'm not a stop motion person. The girl who cried pearls is a stop motion film. I just, I'm not, unless it's a heat miser and coal miser and Rudolph. I just, I'm not really there. Rankin and Bass, we salute. Yeah. But that's personal preference.

Retirement plan has a very small benefit, not just being a New Yorker distributed short film, but also having a modicum of celebrity attached to it and Donald Gleason, who is the narrator of it. And it does feel a bit like an extended New Yorker cartoon. And in that way, it's very clever and also somewhat brief and effective. I think it's only seven minutes long. I like that one the best. I think Popillon won't win, but who the hell knows? I'm going with Will Nguyen and should win Papillon.

Okay. But we'll see. Next category. Costume Design. The nominees are as follows. Deborah L. Scott for Avatar Fire and Ash. Kate Hawley for Frankenstein, Malgoja, Terzanska, for Hamnet. Miyako Balizi for Marty Supreme and Ruth E. Carter for sinners.

What do you got? Kate Hawley, Frankenstein will win and should win Miako Balizi, Marty Supreme. We match. Yeah. I probably would have been comfortable with any of the – I think this is a pretty good category. It should win. Yeah, I have Frankenstein for Kate Hawley will win and I have Miyako Belizzi for Marty Supreme. She's won the guild stuff and she won it back to.

Kate Holly. Yes. Yes. I feel pretty strongly this is going to happen. I just mean that all five of these nominees, I think, are good. Say more about Avatar Fire and Ash costume design. I think there's costume design for giant Navi creatures. Sure.

And also for the, what's the Una Chaplin character's name? Varang. Verrang. Varang's look is very... Hip forward. Directional. Yes, it is. It's an aspect of...

costume design that is a little under discussed, which is that it is fabrics and texture sometimes, but it's also just look. It's how are CGI characters clothed is a factor, I think, in this category. And maybe like a way that the category might be evolving a little bit. I think one of the reasons why Kate Hawley has the most classical costume-winning design that you will find at the Academy Awards. Listen, one of the nice things I had to say about Frankenstein was that red dress and how that red dress is used. And also the bride of Frankenstein in that film is very beautifully ornately present, you know. Yes.

So I get it. Deserving. Won't be the last time we talk about Frankenstein. Let's talk about makeup and hair styling. Yes. The nominees are Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cleona Fury for Frankenstein. Kiyoko, Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Todashi, Nishimatsu for Kukhuho. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry for sinners.

Kazuhiro, Glenn Griffin, and Bjorn Rabin for The Smashing Machine, and Thomas Foldberg and Anne Catherine Sauerberg for the Ugly Stepsister. Will win, Frankenstein? Yes. Should win the ugly step sister. Okay. This is the one I forgot to watch. Okay.

Because it's, I knew that I needed to do Kokuho and the Lost Bus. And because you also hadn't seen. I watched Kokuho, yes. Yes. Yes. I had seen the Lost Buzz previously. But you had seen the ugly step sister. I had.

So I forgot because it wasn't noted in your list. I think should win Frankenstein. They did a good job with the creature design. Can't argue with that. Yeah. I think Kokuho is an interesting film. It's a three-hour Japanese epic about Kabuki and two friends who move through the world of Kabuki. Tom Cruise's favorite movie of 2025.

Ugly Stepsister is very gross and funny And it's humor hinges on its makeup and hairstyling Which is why I'm making the pick It is like to your point about songs It's not just incidental to the movie It is core to the movie as is Frankenstein But I just liked what the ugly step sister did with it A little bit better

Two wins for Frankenstein Yeah Zero wins so far for one battle after another One win for sinners Production Design Yes The nominees are Tamara Deverell for Frankenstein, Fiona Cromby for Hamnet,

Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme, Florenceia Martin for one battle after another, and Hannah Beechler and Monique Champagne for sinners. Will win, Tamara Deverell, Frankenstein, should win. Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme. Give Jack Fisk an Oscar. I agree. We match on this as well.

I don't know how we just settled on this. It just one period piece versus another. We're doing a tremendous amount of work there. How did the academy and all the precursors just land on this? Because Frankenstein really has swept the guilds and precursors in production, costume, and makeup and hairstyling. And at the time, people talked about, oh, it's handmade and so beautiful and, like, so magisterial to look at. I think you and I did not thrill to all of it in the same way. but I do think a lot of craft

There are a lot of craft voters And they like they appreciate And that they can see all of like the hand literal handwork that goes into it so Yeah I mean it's it's a really interesting category Because it waxes and wanes In terms of what kind of stories it wants to celebrate From fantasy to historical period piece

To future set movies Right And I think Marty Supreme falls into an uncomfortable middle zone in terms of what is being celebrated and recognized. So just to go through the last few years of production design, last year's winter was wicked, which I think it's actually not a bad. I think the production design in that movie is pretty good.

I think it's shot very poorly, but I think the design of the world works. Which is also what you could say about Frankenstein. And the production design is not, and also the cinematography is like not dissimilar. It's true. And I remember watching Frankenstein being like, why does this layer where he's building

it look exactly like the clockroom in Wicked. That's a very good call. 2023 is Poor Things, also wonderful production design in that movie. 2022 All Quiet on the Western Front. Sure. 2021 Dune, 2020 Mank. And 2019 was once upon a time in Hollywood, right? Yeah, Barbara Ling and Nancy.

Hey, and that's probably the closest we have in terms of a comp to Marty Supreme. Right. But what were the competitors in 2019? Because they tend to go just what is what's the oldest we can go here? That year's nominees were the Irishman. Similarly, you know, in the 50s, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, and Parasite. All right. So.

But they didn't give the home and parasite production design. So. No, they didn't. Yeah. It's very interesting. Jack Fisk, here's the thing. He's extremely well known amongst Sinophiles. Okay.

Why the Academy doesn't care. I'm not sure. He has been nominated four times with no wins and he's 80 years old. It's a shame. This episode is brought to you by Volkswagen. There is such a thing as becoming too comfortable in your day to day, but our favorite films with stories that make us change the way we think

that weren't made by people content to just sit back and watch the world pass by. This is your sign that you shouldn't either. From us, from VW and the other drivers out there, grab the wheel. Do what you love, even if it means taking the road less traveled. Learn more at VW.com. Okay, let's do sound. There are quite a few people associated with this,

so I won't read every single nominee's name, but these are the films that are nominated for Best Sound, F1, Frankenstein, one battle after another, sinners, and Sarat. Mm-hmm. Is it my turn to go first? It is. Will win F-1. Yes.

Should win sinners. Okay. I did should win F-1. Like, why not? Room, room, room. Yeah Sinners is both a music movie And an action movie

I had sinners until I was just kind of like sure Yeah at the MPSE Awards CINERS won the award for ADR dialogue Which I thought was interesting In part because you know they're using those heavy cameras And so the ADR really has to work well Because they're loud F1 of course

There's a lot of cameras mounted on Fucking race cars So that also is a feat As always, I am no expert in sound And every year someone who works in the sound industry DMs me and is like, stop talking about this You sound like an asshole I apologize, I'm doing my best, I'm not an expert

F1 seems like it would be a fine winner You think this will be F1's only win? Yes, I do. I had to scroll down a little, but yes, I do. Okay, just making sure. Next category, visual effects The nominees are Avatar Fire and Ash F1, Jurassic World Rebirth,

The Lost Bus, and Sinners. What do you got? Will win, Avatar, Fire, and Ash. Should win F1. I don't know. Why not? No.

Okay. No. Should put some respect on Big Jim's name. He invented an entirely new way of making films. That's cool. And he's won Oscars for it. And I didn't like watching this one as much as I liked the other one, where they did race cars and then they made it look real.

Okay. Did you know that Avatar one? we make things look real, believably and with craft, then rather than creating new things. That's just my taste. That's interesting. That does seem to be stifling creativity. It's just like I like stories about humans instead of, you know, fantasy stories.

That's fine. Humans appear in the film Avatar Fire Nash. They're the villains, of course. It's mostly just Edie Falco in one of the power loader. Power loaders. God bless. Okay, film editing. And here's what thing.

I should have ordered a power loader for the Instagram. life. Whoa. Those exist. Is that a real thing? No, Jack, you don't know? I don't think so. Jack, get us a power loader.

All right, I'm on it. And make it fit into this studio. Should I interview Steven Spielberg, waltzed in a power loader? That would be a real alpha move. Okay, film editing. And here's where... We show our hand? Well, here's where the wheels start churning, truly, for what's going to happen on

this night. We have just gotten through. the bulk of the craft awards, but there's a couple more to come, and I think they're going to be very indicative of what's going to go down. So film editing. The nominees are Stephen Murielne for F1,

Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdi for Marty Supreme, Andy Jurgensen for one battle after another, Olivier Bukutei for sentimental value, and Michael Schaver for sinners. I go first. Yes. Will win one battle after another, Andy Jurgensen, should win

one battle after another, Andy Jurgensen. Oh, interesting. Okay, you're not spreading the world. This is a two-hour and 40-minute film that feels like it's an hour and 40 minutes. Mm-hmm. The most memorable moment from the film, among the most memorable moments in movies this year, is the car chase scene, which is an extraordinary feat of editing through the hills of Borego Springs. This is Andy Jurgensen's second feature as lead editor on a movie. He is not an academy regular.

His only other editing credit as a lead editor is Lickrish Pizza. So him winning here, it would remind me a little bit of Eric Messerschmitt's win for cinematography for Mank, where it was a guy who was on Fincher's team for a while and was present for a lot of stuff. And when he got bumped up, he got awarded pretty quickly. That's kind of what this feels like to me. What do you think is going to happen? I also have Andy Jorgensen won battle after another to win. I would be happy.

It should win. I agree with you, but I put something different just for fun, which is Ronald Bronstine and Josh Lafdy for Marty Supreme, which is another long movie that moves and moves and moves. And part of its feature is that relentlessness and the editing and the pacing to make you feel incredibly stressed out. You think also about like the sports elements of it and like the ping pong scenes and the and it's, it is, there's a lot to fit into it. And I loved that film.

So let's spread the wealth. I think it's a great shout. It's a really good category in general. I think actually sentimental value is probably running in last place in this category, but is also a very well-edited film because there's lots of – it's kind of sliding between history at times and sliding between perspectives and trying to balance a lot of characters' narratives in a way that is a little bit more – it's a little quieter, but I think is also very accomplished.

Good job by the Academy Awards, recognizing these films. Now for our predictions for this year's Best Casting Award brought to you by Volkswagen. No one wins an award by just sitting around thinking up great ideas for the big screen. They make it happen. No matter how many years it takes, this is a call from us, from VW, and from all those award-winning drivers out there. Get in the director's seat. Make your dreams happen because honestly, what are you waiting for?

Okay, Best Casting, the first year ever for this award. The nominees are as follows. For Hamnet, Nina Gold. For Marty Supreme, Jennifer Van Ditty. for one battle after another, Cassandra Colokundis, for the secret agent Gabriel Dominguez, and for sinners, Francine Maisler. Yes.

What do you got? Oh, it's my turn. Will win Francine Mazler, sinners, and should win Gabriel Dominguez, the secret agent. That is exactly what I have. Yeah. Now, let's start by just talking about Francine Maisler for a moment. Francine Maisler is a legend.

I'm going to just share with you. Well, let's start with this. She's cast nine Best Picture nominees in the last seven years. She is perhaps the most revered casting director in Hollywood. Here are her credits from the beginning of her career in the 1990s.

These are just the movies that she cast in the 1990s. Her first film where she's identified as the casting director is reality bites, then the usual suspects, then bad boys, then the people versus Larry Flint, then as good as it gets, then out of sight, and then you've got mail.

Those, that's sequentially, I've not removed anything or added any. Those are the movies that she cast, which are basically all incredibly memorable. That's one of the all-time streaks in any discipline? If you go through her career, I mean, her 2000s is not dissimilar from this. She has been associated with so many beloved movies over the years. I met her at Telleride a couple years ago. She was such a cool person and an interesting person. She is a Hollywood casting director, though.

She's great at casting working actors. And what makes her different from most of her other nominees in this category, which is they do something different. And if you look at what Jennifer Vendiddy has been doing for a lot of movies, a lot of A24 movies, but a lot of films over the last 10 years, especially Safdi Brothers movies, Gabriel Dominguez, who we both think did amazing work,

finding so many Brazilians who are non-professional actors. And one battle, too, has reams and reams of first-time faces. People have never been in a movie before. And Grace notes like, Mr. Wonderful. No, no, that's Martin. Sorry, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But other recognizable people from other movies, but not in the sense of, I see, it's not Leonardo Caprio.

Yes, yes. But you also have Leonardo Caprio. No, I mean, the two most memorable ones to me are the sort of the intake nurse when Bob has been arrested and then the nurse who frees him, those two women who are not, who are non-professional actors, and who are among the most memorable people in that movie. So there's so much accomplishment there. And then Nina Golden Hamnet is a smaller crop,

but I think Jacoby Jupe in particular is like a real discovery, and he is the beating heart of that movie in many ways. And so she did good work as well. The question I think about this category, which fascinates me, is will this secretly just become a best ensemble win? Because sinners won the best ensemble at the SAG Awards, and because it is, it's rewarding a bunch of people that we really like.

Correct. It could. I think it's unfair to pin that on sinners because in addition to casting Michael B. Jordan and Haley Steinfeld and Jack O'Connell and Delray Lindo and people who we know, although maybe not, you know, Haley Steinfeld was, I didn't expect that for her. I didn't either. So, you know, that's some imagination. But like Miles Keaton is the find and the movie hinges on him.

And so it's doing, and then on down. the line of the supporting actors. Some are more well known than others, and some are that guys. But there is, she's working at volume, and she also found the right new person and found and reinvented some known people. So I think that this actually is a feat of casting. I think it is, too. You've also got to consider when you introduce a new award, there's a whole line of people who are ready for an It's Time Award. Francie Maysler happens to be the casting director of one of the most acclaimed films, the most a nominated film in the history of the Oscars. It's just the convergence of a lot of things that I think is leading to her likely winning.

If she doesn't win, that will be notable, I think, for the future precedent of the award and kind of what the award, what people are voting for and why? Because most people who are voting on this award will have seen these films, unlike some of these other categories where there may be abstentions, there's not going to be a lot of abstentions in this category going forward. It's going to be one of the most voted on categories, despite it being a below-the-line category. It's kind of interesting to me. That was our best casting awards prediction.

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Learn more at v.w.com. Okay. Next category is cinematography. Okay. The nominees are Dan Lauson for Frankenstein, Darius Kanji from Artie Supreme, Michael Baumann for one battle after another. Autumn Durald-Archapha for Sinners, Adolfo Veloso for Train Dreams.

What do you got? It's my turn again? Okay, it's my turn. Michael Baumann for one battle after another will win. Autumn Durald Archipafer Center should win. We match. But it's, I mean... It's a tight race.

It is, but... You think Autumn could still win? She could. She could, and that would be really, really exciting. I just... An awesome interview on this podcast, but it's like amazing. work. And I think even compared with some of the other nominees in this category, and I won't name names, but it's sinners is a period piece and it is like recreating a world. And as she talked about

recreating it, like in a beautiful photographic way. So it's really, really great work. It could happen. On the other hand, when Michael Bowman won the Ace Awards. AASC, yeah. AAC. AAC.S. ASC, we sat here talking about like, no, he's won every single precursor. So it's probably going to be Michael Bauman. And also that is a beautiful movie. It is. He's another interesting person like Andy Jurgensen who, you know, on his previous film with Paul Thomas Anderson, they were co-credited as DP. Paul Thomas Anderson did not take a DP co-credit on this movie.

He is now, Bowman is now, he's made a lot of television as well. He's the DP of the forthcoming Anthony Bourdain film that Matt Johnson made. He's obviously very gifted, but he's not like an industry legend. The other thing for Autumn is a woman has never won this award. Yeah. I mean, it's just crazy that a woman has never won this award. And there have been many nominees over the years,

and Ryan Coogler films have gotten nominees over the years. Rachel Morrison has been nominated here. But, you know, that's not the reason she should win. I think she should win because she brings a real artistic flair to the world that Coogler created. But... Which is an interesting one. This feels we're getting into the indicative zone of where my head's out with the awards and what it could mean.

The only other thing I want to say because this sort of concludes the below the line category. And Autumn is one of a trio of sinners department heads. Also Ruth E. Carter and Hinda Beechler. Yes. The Coogler has assembled and worked with and they're just like the power trio of black women and making movies. So it seems, and we haven't predicted them to win,

and that's kind of a bummer. Anna Begler has won in the past, and Routher is one in the past. And I think that there was some thinking that Autumn would be able to go in there because these films are so loved. I mean, the look of sinners is really fascinating, and Autumn talked about it at length

when she was on the show. And Autumn has also been doing a lot of press and has put herself out there, and I think, in a very smart way. So, you know, we will see what happens, but I'm going to come. Wanted to shout them out because they're great.

That's all. They are great. I'm going to come back to Andy and Michael being my picks and how it relates to the rest of the puzzle. Okay. Best Original Screenplay. Yes. The nominees are Robert Kaplow for Blue Moon, Jafar Pinahy, and script collaborators for It Was Just an Accident, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdi from Artie Supreme, Joachim Trir and Eskil Voked for Sentimental Value and Ryan Coogler for Sinners. Will Win Sinners?

Should Win Sinners. I wrote Will Win Sinners Should Win Sentimental Value. Okay. Just a feeling I had. That's beautiful. I think it's a great film. I think it's really art. I think the, I think the work, the best work the cooler does is the vision.

I think the script is very good. Yeah. I think the central conceit of colliding the idea of a vampire movie and black blues music and the history of black Americans is just ingenious, right? There's just something very special in that metaphor. But sentimental value is very righterly. It is very novelistic in a way that I admire. I really like what Yokeemcher does. So that's my pick.

There's no chance for an upset here. Coogler is getting this. I really, I will be very upset if there is an upset because this is our category. This is where all the real ones actually do get their Oscar, even if they're deserving of many more, which is also the case of Ryan Coogler. And also, I just, I think it's a, it's a tough night and a bad look if he's not. up there. I agree with that. Yeah.

Best adapted screenplay. The nominees are Will Tracy for Bagonia, Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Chloe Zhao, and Maggie O'Farrell for Hamlet, Paul Thomas Anderson for one battle after another, and Clint Bentley and Greg Quedar for Train Dreams. Will win one battle after another Paul Thomas Anderson. Yes. Should win one battle after another for Paul Thomas Anderson. Yes.

You agree. What if I was like should win Hamnet? You should say Frankenstein. This will almost certainly be Paul Thomas Anderson's first. Academy Award. He has been 0 for 11 up until this point. Will it be his last of the night? Probably not. Let's talk about that category now. Best Director. The nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson for one battle after another. Ryan Coogler for Sinners, Josh Safdi for Marty Supreme, Joachim Trier for sentimental value, and Chloe Zhao for Hamnet. Will win Paul Thomas Anderson and should win Paul Thomas Anderson. I agree. Yeah. Won the DGA. Everybody likes Paul Thomas.

has one. And it is the quote unquote its time narrative comes to its conclusion, not like too far past when it should have gone. It's, and this is also, it's not like a Scorsese wedding for the departed type situation, I think, even though I enjoy watching the departed, even though I don't understand what happens at the end of it. Um, I, we really like, like this movie. And I think that there is a magic to the way. And I think that there is a magic to the that it was made that we've heard about from PTA and from everyone who worked with him. And there was a magic to the result, his first action movie, but is also so much more than an action movie.

And he has been the leader of all these people. So I feel good about it. I feel bad that other people are losing. Let's say that. How did Phantom Thread not get nominated for Best Original Screenplay? What happened there? The Phantom Thread disrespect. I don't need, he didn't even get nominated.

Listen. The nominees at your get out, the big sick ladybird, the shape of water, and three billboards. I remember that morning feeling excited with the number of nominations that Phantom Thread did get. But it's just bananas. Because he got Best Director that year. Yeah. And not screenplay. And there are obviously 10 screenplay nominees.

That's just utterly bizarre to me. I like the big sick too, but I mean, come on. Okay, that's just a sidebar. It's one of those things where it's like, that's one of the things that happens where you would expect someone like him to have already had a best original screenplay Oscar, and then that leads to this feeling

that has been burbling throughout the year of like, man, it's beyond its time from Paul Thomas Anderson. And then, like, now you can say, well, is there going to be an overcorrection on that time? We'll get to that. Okay, this is where things get really interesting. Yeah. We're going to do the acting awards.

I don't feel good about three out of these four. I don't think most awards prognosticators feel good about three out of these four. How do you feel? I think that I'm going to be wrong about one of them. And so then I was spiraling of trying to outthink what I would be wrong about and then correct for it. And then I, you know, I am looking at history. I'm looking at the old results. I'm triangulating as best I can.

But then I have to think about, am I, you know, like holding all. on too hard to the past. Do I need to, like, open my mind? So I'm, listen, I'm spiraling. I don't know what to say. You're spiraling. I'm not spiraling. I've made my decisions.

And I have written everything down. Hang in there, Mama. You got this. Best actor in a supporting role. That's how we're going to start. Okay. The nominees are Benicio del Toro for one battle after another. Jacob Elorty for Frankenstein,

Delroy Lindo for sinners, Sean Penn for one battle after another, and Stellan Scars Guard for sentimental value. I think it's your turn. I've chosen Sean Penn I have as well for Will win and I've chosen

Stelan Scarsguard for should win I think it's possible that Stellan Scarsguard wins I don't see the Delroy Lindo thing but there are people who are passionate about it There are people who say

this is Marcia Gayharden for Pollock Has not won any precursors Okay Nobody is really talking about this happening And then all of a sudden you hear that name And you're like Oh my God a real genuine Oscar surprise.

And I think many of those people are pointing to, first of all, that he got in without having won, and he was the surprise nominee. He was. But then also that he accepted Best Ensemble at the Sack Awards. And so he was the last person on the stage that you heard from. Correct. And really, like, held the room for a while.

And so do you believe in the vibe shift, the sinner's vibe shift, that this would be the clearest sign of it changing. It wouldn't indicate specifically, but I will say this. Sean Penn winning two precursors despite not showing up, what that is essentially done, and I had someone who's very smart about this stuff, share this insight with me yesterday. This is a category that this movie didn't even have a month ago.

Yeah. You know, when everybody thought it was Stellant Scarsguard or Jacob Allorty, this just adds to one battle strength. So if Sean Penn wins, that might also very clearly indicate which way the wind is blowing. Now, there's some speculation that Sean Penn won't even go to the Academy Awards. He went to the Golden Globes. He did. But I wonder if the reaction he got at the Golden Globes is why he's like, fuck all this.

I don't care. Which would be honestly really funny. I think it was Variety today had some piece that was like, please Sean Penn go to the Oscars. I don't know. Who cares? That's like, that's his whole thing is he's like, fuck you to everybody. Surely they can, I don't think they'll let him smoke inside the auditorium, but they can set up a little room on the side. How do you feel about public smoking?

You think we should bring you back? Smoking is back. I mean, I don't think that we should not have it everywhere all the time because, like, wherever you want. Because I got to take my kids places. And then also it's just your hair really smells, your clothes, that sort of thing. And I just, I can't be doing laundry on that level. but, and also it's bad for you. Children.

My children, no. Don't smoke. I grew up in a house with two parents while they're still together. My dad smoked parliaments and my mom smoked Winstons. And there's just smoke in the house. Yeah, I know. She was letting them rip. She was really letting them rip for real.

All the way up until I was like nine and then she just quit cold turkey. But I think that they had both, I think they both smoked since like 14. and man, it just smelled like fucking smoke my entire childhood. And that obviously wasn't good for me. No. So I don't really believe in that. That being said, you know, people look cool smoking. What are we going to do?

Yeah. This is life. I went to a party recently where it was just smoking indoors, bouquets of cigarettes everywhere. Yeah. It was fun. Why are we talking about this? Sean Penn. Sean Penn.

Did you make your picks? Oh, I will win Sean Penn, should win Ben. Ben. Is there any chance that happens? I don't think so. Okay. But I, that makes it all the more special to me. If Benizio wins even more so, I'm like, wow, one battle is in a really prime position.

Let's go to another stumper. Best actress in a supporting role. The nominees are L. Fanning in sentimental value. Inga Ibsda Lilias for sentimental value. Amy Madigan for weapons, Wunmi Musaku for sinners and Tiana Taylor for one battle after another. This is the one that I wrote in right before we started recording. This is what I was texting you stressed about last night. This is what I've been texting friends and loves ones.

You're flummoxed. Did a little like pre-bedtime counsel with my husband, Zach, who talked me off the ledge of what was a bad pick, though, if it's then right. I'm going to be mad at myself. Ultimately, I was trying to decide between Amy Madigan and Wunmi Masaku. Okay. Amy Madigan for weapons, Wunmi Masaku for sinners. There is a tradition, there is a precedent, as you have previously noted, of someone winning and best supporting actress as the only nominee for their film, which Amy Madigan is for weapons. Nine times this has happened. It's very rare for anyone to win an acting award when they're the sole nominee from their film.

Right. She also has the SAG bump and gave a great speech at SAG. And I, you know, is, is, is, beloved. I have maintained that I don't think international voters care about field of dreams and the Amy Madigan-Hawleywood legacy in the way that we do. But I also, I had a gut instinct, like last week, I was like, I think it's going to be Woonie Masaku. I just, I, and that is like pure, that's how I make decisions at some point. I'm going with what I feel. So I'm going with Woonme Mishaku. What is your should win? I thought Inga Ibs daughter Lilias was very good in sentimental value. Fucking hell yeah.

I'd love to hear that. That's really nice. Will win I chose Amy Madigan. Okay. I get it. Here's my logic. I get it. Here's my logic.

And I don't fucking know. This is going to be the first big award they give out. Yeah. And I'm going to be like, all right. Well, that happened. When we were talking about it last night, you were like, I just had to make a decision and move on. That's what I did.

Like I had to let it go. That is what I did. I thought about it very clearly this way. There has been only one race, this entire award season, in which Amy Madigan, Tiana Taylor, and Womi Misaku have gone against each other, and that is SAG. And Amy Madigan won't sack. Yeah. That's it.

Sag isn't always predictive. I'm not saying that's the only reason she's winning. I just kind of feel like she's going to win. I told this story to Bill the other day. I was sitting in a movie theater and tell you ride with an award strategist. We're just chatting about what's going to the next six months going to be like. And I turned to the person and I was like, I feel like there's a great campaign to be run for Amy Madigan. I feel like she's insanely memorable in that movie.

She is an actor with a huge history. She'll be great at Q&A's because she's got a great personality and she's got a lot of cool movies to talk about in her career She's a very Principal person and a thoughtful person, but she also feels like a normal person She doesn't feel like a star This category likes that So I'm just going with it You've been consistent on it since the very beginning

And I respect that You could definitely be right I don't feel confident at all I don't feel confident at all either but I just have a vibe. And then it's interesting if we disagree. Not that we planned it. You know, it's an interesting test of this too.

And we've talked about the villain thing and how villains often win in the supporting actor category. Is this the first time we don't have the same pick? I think it is. Okay. Isn't that crazy? Yeah. It's probably good.

I think most people can remember the name of Amy Madigan's character in this movie, which is Aunt Gladys. Yes. I don't know if the same could be said for one of Mimisakou's character. I think it could be said for Taya on a Taylor. character, in part because her name is so unusual, perfidy of Beverly Hills. Maybe they can remember Annie, maybe not.

You know, obviously Senors is the much more popular of all of the movies that we're talking about. But that's another thing where it's just like Aunt Gladys kind of went into the lexicon a little bit. This is all circumstantial. I'm just kind of throwing things out there. Were you alerted as I was to the, I guess, HBO Brazil to the Brazil-specific promotional video

that Tanya Maria, aka Donia Sebastiana, from The Secret Agent did in which she is like she does the Billy Crystal thing she's like juxtaposed into various films and she's

she's like in sinners as Jack O'Connell for a while which is really funny it's also it's all in Portuguese and to my knowledge no one has translated it so I haven't seen it once again just viving

and then at the end she is she is on Gladys so and then she's rapping Marty Supreme Ping pong balls Her is in glottis is very memorable My should win is Inga as well Yeah Last night

Last night I was like Zach What about Inga And he was like she hasn't won a single thing I was predicting Inga a couple of months ago And I have moved way off of that That could be actually The Marsha Gay Hardin thing

Where they're like oh Right And where is the sentimental value You know It's so powerful nominees wise It could go over nine I mean that's that's 100% in play You know

If it does If Secret Agent wins international It could go over nine. Okay, let's go back to some normalcy. Best actress in a leading role, the nominees are Jesse Buckley for Hamnet, Rose Byrne, I'd kick you. Kate Hudson for Song-Sung Blue,

for Not to Rhine's vote for sentimental value, and Emma Stone for Bagonia. Will win. The bride herself. Jesse Buckley in Hamlet, and here she comes. Should win, I wrote down Emma Stone and then just went fucking Jesse Buckley. Like, I don't know.

Jesse Buckley, in the last 40 minutes, knocked me out. I'm not immune to it. I said it when we talked after you came back from Venice, I was like, look, man, this movie, I have some notes about this movie, but I really liked it, and I liked it because I walked out of the last 40 minutes

feeling crushed, overwhelmed by what she pulls off in the movie. And not just in the last 40 minutes in the birth scene of the twins. I think about it all the time. She is astonishing. She really is. She's very good in this. And you have the same?

I have will win, Jesse Buckley, should win Roseburn. Okay. Roseburn is doing a different but similar thing in perfect and electrifying detail. And the scene,

like the support group and the, like, it is our fault. It's our fault scene and where she's just shoving cake in her mouse is unbelievable.

She, like, goes for it. And it's, and all the therapy scenes with Conan speaking of. She's fantastic. It's amazing.

It's an amazing movie. movie that she carries on her shoulders. I won't quibble. This is another one of those, like, this category and the next category is a sign of the strength of this year. That there were a lot of good movies this year

and that this is a, I would say an unusually quality Oscar slate. Some, like, I'm not so sure about that. You know, the F-1s over, it was just an accident. Like, you know, could have done a little better, but it's a very good slate. Okay, now for the fucking barn burner. Okay.

This is like the category of my life. This is like, I've never had more of a weird feeling about a category. And you've been crunching numbers? Yeah, there's a lot of data to think about. There's a lot of strategy to go into this. And then the vibe shift plays a big part in this. And I don't know whether this will be predictive of the rest of the night or not. But I'm very eager to talk about it with you.

So it is best actor in a leading role. The nominees are Timothy Chalameh and Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio, in one battle after another, Ethan Hawken Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan for sinners and Wagner Mora for the secret agent. Mm-hmm. It's my turn. Go. We'll win.

Michael B. Jordan. Okay. Sinners. Okay. Should win Timothy Chalemi, Morty Supreme. And I love opera and ballet. I love them. I am picking Michael B. Jordan.

I don't feel good about it. Okay. This is, we're kind of in like, don't be a coward, predict F1 territory here. Because I have got like a really weird feeling that either Leo or Wagner Mora is going to win. Really weird. I was doing this myself because, as you know, I've been on the Wagner Mora. It's Wagner Mora's time, you know, fear and respect Brazil for months. And there is an interpretation where Timmy wins the first few. And then you have the BFTA's, I don't remember the actor's name, and I swear. Robert Aramayo. And then the Michael B. Jordan Surprise at Sag. And you think,

So this is wide open and then maybe Wagner Mora and the international vote comes through. The case against Wagner Mora there is that Wagner Mora was not even shortlisted for the Bafta. I agree. I think there is a prevailing theory. I talked to two different people about this yesterday. There is a theory unprovable that Leo is in second place at Bafta. And that the case for Leo, who has not been campaigning as much in the last coming. a couple of weeks.

Yeah, that's because he's filming a movie. Yes, which I'm very grateful for. With Martin Scorsese and Jennifer Lawrence. That there's a weird thing here where like no one's talking about this, but that he, Leo is Leo, he's very understood to be great. You know, the Academy for years kind of gave him the stiff arm, but that this is a bit of a culmination. And then there's two things to note here.

One is that BAFTA is usually the Bellwether. They've matched on Best Actor nine out of the past 10 years. So the Robert Aramio win really throws this thing in. to a state of disrepair. SAG also, and that is where the Michael B. Jordan prediction comes. If not for that SAG win, no one would be predicting him to win. But SAG has been off an actor and actress in three out of the last six years. SAG is just not super predictive.

We just saw last year Demi Moore and Timothy Shalamey won Best Actor and Best Actress, and they both lost at the Academy Awards. I agree with you, and I was trying to talk myself out of this. And then also, by the way, so I am picking Michael B. And so I'm picking a sinner's win in best actor and best supporting actress. You are. So then I need to start doing some math. And does that affect any of my other picks?

So I agree with you that I have a lot of like I'm not sure. But I was talking to a friend of ours last night and just like, hey, who do you think is going to win? And they also said Michael B because this sag moment was perfectly timed in the middle of voting. It was. And had that great viral moment of surprise. And in the room, you could just feel people being excited for something new that they didn't expect and also excited for him. And then as my friend said, he wears it so well. Yes. He just, and it was an amazing speech and natural and heartfelt and still a movie star. And it just kind of like clicked into place. And there was this moment of like, oh, why isn't Michael B. Jordan the frontrunner for best actor?

I just, I don't know. Okay. When do people vote is a real question. Did people vote the first week, the second week? I don't know. I think there's a couple of things to take into consideration here, some of which is a little bit unseemly, but I'm just going to talk through it. One, Michael B. Jordan is a classical kind of extremely well-liked Hollywood person who has

been involved since he was a young kid. And we've watched him grow up in television and movies. He's a legitimate star. Like he opens movies. People really like seeing him. He also is a classical star and that we don't know a lot about him. He has done an amazing job of managing his persona. And just basically showing up for the movies and occasionally when he talks about what he likes, it's like, I like anime. Like it's kind of harmless. And so all of that is going for him. And you've got a lot of people who have interacted with him. I was with some people over the last few days who would have like interact with him a lot over the years and are like, he's a good guy. I like him. That

movie is on his shoulders. He's giving two performances, right? There's all those things. On the flip side, I don't know what the International Academy thinks of sinners. And I think this is, to your point about having two acting wins and maybe more, plus a screenplay win, this is a movie that's going to have to play for the new academy in a way that I'm not sure if it will. It might. It very well might. We just don't know. But the other thing there is, okay, if they're not going for Michael B. Jordan, is the vote splitting between Wagner, Mora, Leonardo DiCaprio, Shalame.

There's some hairbrain thinking out there that Shalame, who still has a lot of supporters, and MBJ would split, and that that would be the pathway for a Wagner or for a Leo to climb up. I think that's... I almost did it, man. I almost, I almost...

I almost picked Leo. And I know I've been kind of wishcasting that throughout the year. I would be elated if Leo won. I would feel for Michael B. Jordan as well, because the thing you were talking about at the beginning of this, like this is about emotions.

And Michael B on stage at Sagg felt so good. Yeah, I agree, I agree. And for all of the reason you just said, and I do think that that has weight. And so I do also think that if Leo wins, I would feel sad because the Michael B. Jordan thing would be so special. Yeah. That said, Leo is unbelievable in one battle after another.

He's so, he is funny. It's so emotional. The scene at the end. I, and a deserving and an amazing actor and a, you know, like the only, the true only movie star

we have left. So I'd be good with it. I don't know. Let's talk about the Timmy fallout a little bit. Okay. It's a paradox. Marty Supreme is not a hit without the swaggering Marty promo machine.

Yeah. And Timmy, you know, being a rapper, being stunty, talking his shit. And if you don't have that, I don't know that Marty Supreme is quite in this place that it's in right now,

and I don't know that Shalame's career is quite in this place that it's in right now. The backslide of that is that there are some people who think that there is maybe not as much of a divide between Marty and who Timothy Shalame is in real life. Yeah. And then you compound that with what I think is mostly internet bullshit, but is like something that did happen, which was the comments about the ballet and the opera. Right. Which happened earlier this week and really only took off on Thursday after Oscar voting closed.

Yes. But has set off a kind of internet firestorm. I don't know how much of a real firestorm that is. But all the Oscar voters I've talked to in the last week were like they wanted to talk about that. Yeah. I thought those comments were like maybe poorly phrased but basically true and understandable what he was trying to communicate. That being said, if you're in the world of the ballet or opera, I understand. understand that you have certain sensitivity as to how your work is characterized.

I love the ballet, so I don't want it to be denigrated in any way. But it's not so much what he said, I thought, but just how people feel about him. That's what that indicates. Yeah, I mean, the comments themselves, I think, were poorly phrased or a true thing phrased in an unappealing way, which who could relate to it more than me. But so I get it and I'm sure he regrets it. Your energy. Or maybe he doesn't. But like he's not wrong and he was talking about it in the context of like going to theaters and wanting to make art that is still commercially viable, which opera and ballet are less so for a number of reasons, which aren't his fault.

And I also love the ballet and the opera. And we are met opera streaming subscribers in my home. So how about that? Thank you to my dad for that Christmas gift. Right. But I do think that I don't know how closely, and I hope not at all closely, you followed the Justin Baldoni, Blake lively, ongoing circus.

They kind of checked out after a while. I think that's wise. I think they should have checked out long ago. But one of the things that was revealed, and one of the major points of contention was, you know, kind of who was hired to start a campaign against her and how much of that campaign was professional and seated, and then how much of it was just, how much was the seating versus how much was just people waiting on the internet

to get their takes off against Blake lively? And I think the answer ultimately, and again, no one sue me. This is my interpretation of an ongoing legal case is that it was a little bit of both, but that there were a lot of people waiting who don't like Blake lively for reasons valid and and strange both. And they had their memes ready. And it feels like that for Timmy as well. Where it's like, oh, we found something that we can really, we can start unleashing everything.

Yeah. And as soon as you get to the mountaintop, that's when they start taking you down. There's definitely something going on there. I don't know. I'm from New York. His energy is very notable to me. I like it. I've always liked it.

You know. And it works on me from beginning to end. I just, it's where I am. I'm in the bag for Timmy Chalamey. And that's fine. You don't have to be. There's, I still think there's a chance he wins. He's still running at like 35%.

Like it's not like he's not going to get any votes. This is not, I think that the other thing that goes against him, of course, is that he's a young guy and young guys don't usually win. And MBJ is just now crossing the threshold of when it's like, okay, this is when a person who's been in the industry for a while usually starts to win. One important note here, in the past five years, there's been a big trend where leads match with best picture winners for the, five past years, there's been a best actor or best actress lead winner that has been matched with Best Picture. Now, it doesn't have to happen, but it being more common, you're kind of your Killian Murphy and Oppenheimer sort of wins, or Michelle Yo and everything everywhere.

Loans. MBJ and what that means for sinners, it feels tied, and yet I still predicted MBJ. And now we will talk about Best Picture. Are you ready? Yes. Okay. Let's read the nominees for Best Picture for hopefully the last time. Best picture, Bagonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, one battle after another,

the secret agent, sentimental value, sinners, and train dreams. I believe it's your turn. Will win one battle after another and should win. My favorite film of last year, one battle after another. I agree. I will win one battle, should win one battle. You've brought up the essential point. And I predicted, so the only category in which we disagree, we have our

Our picks are 23 for 24. Wow. And all it is... Is supporting actress. Is that right? Did we match on the shorts, too? I believe so. Okay.

Unbelievable. Then... And we don't consult. I guess people are... We do it in separate docs. Should I just have a little fucking gumption and change Michael B. Jordan? No. Because that's the one race.

That's the one race that to me is... It should be studied anthropologically. Because it's a great... We didn't even... We barely mentioned Ethan Hawth. Right. But it's a great collection of performance. It's old, young, new, international blockbuster, small art house film.

It's the whole, it's the gamut. Mm-hmm. Okay. And they'll never release the vote tallies. All right. Here's it, here's a, here's a ton of information for you about this. So we are 23 for 24. Yeah.

And the one difference, I also, I picked Wunummusaku, four sinners. Yep. So I have five sinners wins, I think, when you asked me. You do. And yet I went with one battle. So when I was saying about... Your wins are casting, score, screenplay, supporting actress, and actor. Yes.

And you, for one battle now currently have, director, screenplay, picture, cinematography, editing, supporting actor. Supporting actor. Yeah. Six to five. So six to five, which is more of an even split than we've seen historically the past few years. So again, we haven't really had this two people, two people, two, four. films in the race. It's been Oppenheimer and everything

everywhere and DeNora from the very beginning. But, yeah, I have five and six, and I have more acting nominees. I have, you know, more above the line or at least in the movie winners

for sinners. So my math doesn't add up. Well, it does. But it does. One battle wins more films and one battle gets an acting award. Yeah. Which is usually, that's usually part of the package. Let me just give you some data points here. One battle after another's dominance across the precursors.

Here's everything it's one. You ready? Yeah. PGA. DGA. WGA. Ace Eddie for the editors. ASC for the cinematographers.

Costume design for contemporary film. Makeup for contemporary film. International Awards. Bafta. Cesar. The Australian Academy. televised award shows, critics choice,

Golden Globes, the critics' Trifecta, Los Angeles film critics, New York Film Critics Circle, National Film Critics Society. Yeah. That's everything.

The only prize that it doesn't have is Best Ensemble. That's the only prize at SAG. That's everything. This is the most dominant frontrunner

in the history of the Academy Awards. If it doesn't win, and it might not win. It is 100% possible. that sinners could win. But so now we talk about the vibe shift. Yes.

And I don't even think vibe shift is totally fair because sinners has also been in the running, I mean, since April, much longer, much longer. I said in our episode in April of 2025, this movie is getting at least 10 nominations. Right. And it's been loved. It's rewarded at every single award ceremony in one way or another. it has been a part of the discourse and there has just been this sense of we don't know, we don't know,

it could go either way. And that happened before SAG, which was a real boost to sinners and just also sinners prominent on screen and sinners dominant in an awards setting. So, and in the middle of Oscar voting.

So my best rationalization for this was that the vibe shift is what pushes Michael B. Jordan. And then people are like, I haven't been sure what to do. This race has been wide open. I'm not passionate about Timothy Shalmay or whatever. So Michael B. And then the one battle is the best picture.

And so instead of like a best picture, best or director split, it's a best picture, best actor split. I don't know. I again. I fully agree with you. I mean, that was how I rationalized it. And that something had something strong had to burble up for sinners because of how beloved it is, and this is the strongest thing that could burble up.

Yeah. This is the thing where Leo hasn't really been competing. You know, he hasn't win-winning anything. And so that was a place where one battle was not strong. And that was a place where sinners could be much stronger. Maybe this is Cope from a couple of One battle fans who just can't see the sinners wave. It could be. About to crash down on Sunday night.

Yeah, but also, like, the... The list that you just read of precursors, like, we have to be real. Like, that's, we're two Oscar nerds. Like, we can only work within the bounds of what we're seeing. That's why it's this battle between precedent and vibes. That is the question that is happening. It's been very exciting for the race. Here's, this is going to sound like it's a strike in favor of one battle, but it's actually a strike against it.

Ready? This is a really, really, really cool data point if our predictions here hold. If one battle after another wins, picture, director, screenplay, editing, and cinematography, it will be the first time that that quintet of awards has gone to one film since Schindler's List. Before that, Dances with Wolves did it in 1990, the last emperor did it in 1987, and Gandhi did it in 1982. Before that, you have to go all the way back to Gigi in 1961 when all five of those awards happened. But even then, there was a color category and a black and white category for cinematography. Gigi won for color and the defiant ones won for black and white.

Now, there's a wrinkle here. If Sean Penn does win and you tack on an acting award on top of that five, the only film in the history of the Oscars to do that is Gandhi. Oh. That's it. Chinler's List didn't win a single acting award? It did not. Ray Fines and Liam Neeson did not win.

give Ray finds an Oscar that I mean that is true Oscar history yeah to have that collection of six prizes because so many times over the years you have one cinematography is a very volatile award where it frequently doesn't go to the Best Picture winner

the acting awards are not always so closely associated historically with Best Picture winners they are much more so now but they used to be more like spectacle event films that weren't prized for their performance they were prized for their the scope of their stories. There's this, you know, and One Battle and Cinders are both a nice kind of convergence of those. Those are big-scale movies that have great performances in them.

So, I don't know. First of all, I love this, that there's something like this can happen. It's so exciting as somebody who cares about this stuff so much. But also, that's a note against one battle, that the Academy very rarely does this. It's true, though, when you were just doing the five nominees and Schindler's List and Spielberg was the last example. And it's like that just symmetrical. That's symmetrical, right? That is. And, you know, they obviously are friends. We saw the first Q&A between them when we saw one battle after another at the DGA's. They, you know, they're the saviors of TCM. Like it makes sense that he would be in that league. I don't know. What I've been telling myself is that this is a wacky Oscars year, but it's wacky in the act. categories and unpredictable in the acting categories and which it still may be, which I think which it still is, but that Best Picture has been decided for a while, even though we've been

trying to keep it spicy. That's how I'm justifying it. I think you're right. This is easily the closest we've ever matched in our picks. The fact that we matched on all three shorts, the fact that we didn't, I didn't do a lot of zagging here. I don't feel good about the MBJ pick, even though I think all the logic that we talk through makes sense. Supporting actors, if I get it wrong, I can live with that. You know, that's just a... Same. It's been a weird race. We barely even talked about Tiana Taylor. If she was the first person to go up on stage on Oscar night, I wouldn't be surprised either. Yeah. That's just the, that's a wild category. 23 of 24 for us, though, man. I mean, are we just too similar? Are we just coming? Are we sharing a hive mind?

I mean, yes, we definitely spend way too much time together. We definitely talk about things too much. I do, I wonder if some of it is that. There's just two movies. Yeah. And two movies we both like. Yeah. I've got 10 awards going to two movies and you've got 11 awards going to two movies. Marty Supreme Blankton, my predictions. Me as well. Tough. Didn't deserve it. Secret Agent also blanked in my predictions. Yeah. Really tough. Didn't deserve it. Frankenstein, winner of three awards? Two awards. Three? Three words? Make up production and costume. That's their choice. Not ours. We don't vote. Is it weird to feel confident and not confident at the same time? What do you call that? I would call that my daily existence. So welcome. How intriguing? How does it feel? When will you show us the real you?

Never. One of these days. I'm going to get it out. Get it out and show the world. Any closing thoughts? I'm looking forward to it. Me too. I'm ready. I love one. I love one. watching the Oscars. Me too. I'm very excited for the show. I hope it's a great show. Thank you to everyone who has been listening and following along with us for this very long protracted award season. Yeah, make it earlier next year. Yeah, please. Earlier. Earlier, February. Let's go. Thank you to Jack Sanders for his work on this episode and his coverage as our producer throughout this award season. Thanks to Lucas Cavanaugh for production support. On Sunday night, we will see you before the Academy Awards. 3 p.m. P.T. 6 p.m. E.T. T. T. Tune in. We'll talk

about this all over again. Yeah, and just a reminder. The Oscars start at 4 p.m. Pacific, 7 p.m. Eastern. You're welcome, ABC. Then we will come to you immediately after the telecast. Even if it's six hours long, we will be here in studio, recapping the entire show live on Netflix. We'll see you then.