The Big Picture - Predicting the 2020 Oscars | The Big Picture

Episode Date: February 7, 2020

In our final show before the 92nd Oscars, we run down every category and predict what we think will win each award. Will it be a historic night for 'Parasite' and Bong Joon-ho, a sweep for '1917' and Sam Mendes, or a night full of curveballs we don't see coming? We also discuss whether the feeling of inevitability surrounding the acting categories has decreased excitement for the show overall. Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelley, and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl champions, so for coverage of the game and everything that happened in Miami, check out the Ringer NFL show for their game recap. And on the site, you can read Danny Heifetz on Andy Reid, Roger Sherman on Patrick Mahomes, and Robert Mays on Kyle Shanahan's Super Bowl déjà vu. On the Ringer's YouTube channel, make sure to check out Slow News Day with Kevin Clark live from Miami with a bunch of special guests like Miles Teller and Glenn Powell. You can watch and subscribe at youtube.com slash The Ringer.

I'm Sean Fennessey. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about the Academy Awards. The time has come to predict the 91st Academy Awards, Amanda. How are you feeling about this? I feel terrible, as always. It's being wrong in public. It's my number one least favorite thing.

It's even worse than being wrong in private. We will closely tally all of your failures on Oscar night because I'll be tweeting at you directly every time you get a choice wrong. And then we'll also be rehashing those wrong choices here on the big picture live immediately after the telecast, which I'm really excited about on Sunday night. But before that, we do have to, we have to pay a tithe to the prediction gods. Okay. And we're going to go through all 24 categories here. Yes, we are. Now, I'd like to preface that by saying, as I worm my way through the back nine

of illness, my voice may go at any moment here, in which case you're going to have to really carry the load Cliff Booth style. Okay. I was going to say that that's just a good summation of Oscar season in general at some point. I've talked myself out. Yeah, and all of us are just flailing, flailing in the dark, possibly in silence. We're just trying to get to the finish line. I'm hopeful that this will not be an immensely boring podcast about predicting the Oscars because the Oscar results may be boring. I will say this is by far the easiest year in the history of my life predicting these awards. Okay. You know what? It's nice that you have confidence in this and in life. Yes, it is. That's not what that means. That means I couldn't logically see making any other choice. That doesn't mean I feel that I am right. Okay. I guess I feel the same way. There were more

categories that I could kind of fill in, but there are still so many to get wrong. It's just an opportunity to get things wrong. I can't overemphasize how much I hate that feeling. When you would finish an exam in ninth grade, at the end of it, when you and your classmates, your little Amandaettes would gather and chat at the cafeteria table, would you be the kind of person who would say, oh my God, I failed so bad. I didn't know anything. I failed. No. Okay.

No, because I find that obnoxious. And also because I had to have my personal confidence that I was still going to defeat all of them. Were you sitting alone like a sociopath at the cafeteria table? No. Okay. I had some friends, but I don't know. We just talked about cross country or something. Okay. Well, that sounds riveting. Okay. Let's go back to the Academy Awards, which is the reason for this podcast. We're going to start at the beginning and at the place that we sort of

blasphemed earlier on the show, which is with the shorts. I thought we were respectful. I want people to go back and listen and hear what we were saying, which is not that they should be cut from the show and not that shorts aren't deserving. But it is a different exercise. And I just think it was interesting to try to get into the mind of what these winners would be, because I think you're evaluating on different terms because it's a different type of film. So let's just make a separate thing for the shorts and let everybody have their moment. Philosophically, I agree. It's one of the few things about the sort of workaday nature of the Oscars

that you and I ultimately agree on. There are three different categories for the shorts. There is best documentary short subject, best live action short film, and best animated short. We will start with best documentary short subject. Now, very few people have seen these movies. I've seen some of them.

I'm not going to pretend like I've seen all 15 nominees in the shorts category. I just haven't. I haven't had the time and I'm a bad person. I have not either, but I have seen some of them. I've seen some of them as well. I feel solid about my choices. We'll run through the nominees for this first category. In the Absence by Yi-Sing Jeon and Gary Byung-Suk

Kayam. Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone by Carol Dysinger. Life Overtakes Me by Christine Samuelson and John Haptis. St. Louis Superman by Shriti Mundra and Saimi Khan. And Walk, Run, Cha-Cha by Lauren X. I think the overwhelming favorite in this category is Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone, and it is my pick. That is also my pick. We can move on directly from there. Okay. I just don't think we should really make an attempt to talk about the quality control of these categories because we're just not the experts. If you want expertise,

there are actually a ton of great pieces. I was reading some stuff on IndieWire this week about which of these shorts are deserving and which are not. There's a lot of great writing about the shorts. We respect the filmmakers who made the shorts. It's not our métier. Best live-action short film, Brotherhood by Miriam Jubur. Nefta Football Club by Yves Piat. The Neighbor's Window by Marshall Curry. Saria by Brian Buckley or Sister by Delphine Girard. I'm going with The Neighbor's Window. I went with Brotherhood. Okay. That's the odds maker's favorite. Brother brotherhood is yes yes so do you is there a reason why you you made made a change because the neighbor's window is the odds makers like

upset favorite what is that called when it's the there's a favorite and then the the underdog i guess so the spoiler well in a group of five i was was wondering. Anyway, it's number two. The odds makers are usually right in the shorts categories, but it can't be guaranteed because these are highly unpredictable. And because unlike a lot of the other awards that we'll talk about here, there are not a lot of Guild Awards that predict these awards. This is really the only three categories in which we have no data to present ahead of what, you know, sort of what is leading the race, what is leading the charge. So we're flying blind quite a bit, which is part of the reason

why we're not going to spend too much time analyzing. Final category in the shorts, animated short. DeSera by Daria Kashcheva. Hair Love, Matthew A. Cherry. Kit Bull by Rosanna Sullivan. Memorable by Bruno Collette. Sister by Siki Song. Hair Love is far and away the favorite in this category.

Matthew Cherry is a very active Twitter user. A lot of people know him. Used to work for Jordan Peele and Monkey Productions. This is a very good short. I will be surprised. This one out of all three, I would be the most surprised if it didn't win. I also picked Hair Love and it made me cry in under four minutes. It's very effective.

I too can respond to animated films. Wow. Yeah, there we go. I too can respond to animated films. Wow. Yeah, there we go. An incredible transition to our next category. Best animated feature. The nominees are How to Train Your Dragon, The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Claws, Missing Link, and Toy Story 4. What did you go with? This was a last minute change.

Okay. And I don't know whether I should admit this on the podcast. Bobby, I guess, cut this if I'm breaking the laws, but I have been advising a close friend of mine on possible bets, possible upsets. A close friend? Yeah. Is it Sal Iacono? No, it's a friend that you know, a friend who listens to the podcast.

I see. And I identified this category. I did go with Toy Story 4 because I'm trying not to overthink things, but it does seem like it seems like there could be several spoilers, actually. There's a lot of arrows pointing at Klaus right now. Klaus just won a BAFTA.

Klaus won an Annie Award. Klaus is clearly admired among the animating, filmmaking community. I just don't count on Toy Story movies when Toy Story movies come out. That was kind of my reasoning. Toy Story 3 was nominated for Best Picture,

which feels like a thousand years ago, but this is truly one of the most storied movie franchises ever at this point, which sounds like a silly thing to say about a Toy Story movie, but it is a fact. There have been four films that are all hugely successful.

The characters are beloved. They're ingrained in the popular culture. And I genuinely think Toy Story 4 is a very, very, very good animated film and might mark the end of a certain period of Pixar because not just of the machinations that have happened over the years with Disney,

but obviously all of the sort of incredibly fraught stuff that's happened with John Lasseter over the years and the development stage for these movies. It's just, if you look at the Pixar movies that are coming, there are a lot of new properties and there are a lot of new voices that are getting to make those movies. Toy Story 4 is old school, tried and true, early 2000s, Steve Jobs era Pixar. That's where it comes from.

And I think they're going to recognize that. We could be wrong. We're going to find out. We're both going Toy Story 4. Best documentary feature. The nominees are American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, and Honeyland. What did you choose? I chose American Factory.

As did I. I'm not feeling confident. I'm not either. But I wanted to die on this hill because I love this film. We gave this film Best Picture. We really did. At the Alternative Oscars. I was thinking about that this hill because I love this film. We gave this film best picture. We really did. At the alternative Oscars. I was thinking about that this morning and I was so happy.

What a lovely little space that was where we just got to talk about the things we liked. Terrifically well-made movie. I think all of the movies in this category are well-made. I shouldn't be surprised by how overwhelmingly serious every film is in this category every year and how issues-oriented a lot of these films are it's been interesting to see I thought when the nominations

were announced Honeyland would play spoiler the fact that it has representation in this category and also in the next category we're going to talk about is just unusual it's never happened before

and so that shows a lot of support for that movie I thought that would play spoiler over the last couple of months Forsama seems to be gaining a lot of steam Forsama just won at the BAFTAs over the weekend.

We'll have to wait and see. My choice is also American Factory. This is part of what I mean here about saying, like, this was an easy choice to make because it seems like a logical choice. It's an American story. It's also international. It's got Barack Obama's thumbprint on it,

which I think is weirdly meaningful. You know, we never talked about Kobe Bryant's passing on this show, and I don't think there's a ton of reason to, but obviously Kobe was an Oscar winner. And, you know, some people loved his film, but it was a lot easier to understand his film and the purposes of his film that won best animated short. I think it was called Dear Basketball because it was connected to Kobe Bryant. And I think people will actually look at American Factory and think of Barack Obama and correlate in the same way. That is how this business works in many ways. So I'm going American Factory. If you told me any of these films were going to win,

I genuinely would not be surprised. Don't bet on this category. It's my advice. This category also just the nominations itself were a bit of a surprise because Apollo 11, which had been so dominant at so many awards coming up to the nominations, is not included. One Child Nation was also in the mix and is not included. So it could go a lot of different ways. And I guess my strategy throughout has been to play it safe, to go with the most obvious choice. And that's in part because it's been like a pretty obvious award season thus far, but we could easily be wrong. The Oscars always has a couple of surprises. It does. It always does. Now, I would prefer if those surprises happened in some of the later

categories and then some of the earlier categories for the sake of national intrigue, but in all likelihood this year, they're going to come in categories like this. Let's go to Best International Feature, a category that will not have any surprises whatsoever. The five nominees are Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, and Parasite. Yes, Parasite will win this award. Parasite is the winner. This is not the last time

we will talk about Parasite on this podcast. We can continue to go forward. Great. Visual effects. This is the category that I like to call Sean doesn't know anything. I think I get this category wrong every year. That's because you always pick Marvel movies and they've never won. I think I get this category wrong every year. That's because

you always pick Marvel movies and they've never won. I love Marvel. Yeah. Congratulations. Not without some questioning. I think I questioned some of their choices. And frankly, their visual effects are sometimes not that not very good, but they tend to be the dominant visual effects films of their time. And so it's funny when they never win. There are some people who think out of these five nominees that the Marvel movie is going to win. Let's read those nominees. Avengers Endgame, The Irishman, 1917, The Lion King, Star Wars, The Rise of Skywalker. I did not choose the Marvel movie. It will not surprise you to learn that I did not either. I chose 1917. Okay. What did you choose? I got a little frisky. I went with The Lion King.

Okay. And that is because The Lion King won at the Visual Effects Society Awards. That's a very reasonable reason to do so. I know the other reasoning, which is that this award often goes hand in hand with Best Picture. So I... Not always. But sometimes. Sometimes it goes hand in hand with cinematography sometimes with editing

it's usually related to one of those categories in some form or fashion because there's a sense that there is an interconnectivity between how a movie

is cut and how it's animated I just think that there's going to be so much below the line support for 1917 that it's going to overwhelm

in a lot of categories even if it doesn't feel like it necessarily makes sense we're going to have to wait to find out

makeup and hair. This is the first year they've expanded the nominee pool to five films. Let's read those nominees. They are Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent, Mistress of Evil, 1917. Can you believe how much time we spent on Maleficent, Mistress of Evil? Yes, I thought that was interesting. It's good to check in from time to time. Not one, but two people at the Sundance Film Festival

spoke to us about how we had long discussions about Maleficent, Mistress of Evil on a podcast. We contain multitudes. We truly do. I hope that there continue to be very strange allegories about a broken American society coming from Disney in the future. I tend to think that this is also

a very locky kind of category. I tend to think that this is also a very locky kind of category. I chose Bombshell. As did I. Kazuhiro, who was, of course, the mastermind behind the makeup effects in Darkest Hour and transformed Charlize Theron into Megyn Kelly, along with a myriad of other actors, including John Lithgow, transforming into Roger Ailes, is doing stunning work. But more importantly than the quality of the work he's doing, he is a brand name now. He has a recognizability that even he didn't have before necessarily Darkest Hour. And it's just a lot easier to vote for people like that. There's a reason that John Williams has 52 Oscar nominations for best original score. It's

because he's John fucking Williams. People know that name, they see it, and they want to check it. Sure. He's also the greatest movie scorer of, I don't know, our generation. He's not really of our generation. No, he's 86 years old. Well, he's one of the greats. He is one of the greats. Kazuhiro is also one of the greats. I mean, there's no questioning the fact that he is at the top of the list of people who do this kind of work. It's not always kind of transformative makeup and hairstyling that wins awards like this. Sometimes it's more period piece driven or it can be much smaller films at times. This one, though, I think because it is so flashy and because particularly Charlize's transformation is so profound and almost unnerving that I think this is going to win.

I think also that that performance is nominated for a Best Actress Oscar and that the makeup and the transformation is inseparable from that performance. I mean, she does get the voice and the walk down pat, but it is uncanny. I completely agree. We're both going bombshell. We're in agreement on a lot here. You think this is going to continue? Yes, I do. That doesn't make for very good podcasting. Well. Best costume design. Here are the five nominees. The Irishman, Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson,

Jojo Rabbit, Macy Rubio, Joker, Mark Bridges. Remember Mark Bridges when he won for Phantom Thread? Yes, and he had to ride the jet ski because they were giving away the jet ski to someone. What a lord. He was awesome. Yeah, he's great. He's great at his job. Little Women,

Jacqueline Duran. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ariane Phillips. What'd you choose? I went with Little Women. As did I. Because it is both, it's the type of,

it's very costuming, costuming, but there is also in the same way that Greta Gerwig both honors and reinvents the period piece. Those costumes are integral to the film, but they're doing something interesting. It's not just like, oh, I found a hoop skirt. In fact, Greta Gerwig has been really outspoken about how she hates hoop skirts and bonnets and was trying to not do the actual traditional costuming. Anyway, I think there's a lot of invention and also people do have a lot to not do the actual traditional costuming. Anyway,

I think there's a lot of invention and also people do have a lot of affection for this film. I agree. I think you are certainly more qualified to identify what's different and impressive about some of the costuming in this movie than someone like me. Jacqueline Duran's an interesting figure. She's been nominated seven times. She's won before. I think she won for Anna Karenina, which is one of our faves. Joe Wright's adaptation of the novel. But Sandy Powell is also here, who is one of the most decorated costume designers in recent history. Mark Bridges, of course, just won a couple of years ago. A lot of people are really admiring

of Ariane Phillips' work on Once Upon a Time. If I had to choose a spoiler, I think I would choose Ariane Phillips. And if there is a secret Once upon a time hive in the making, and if you start to look at some of these anonymous voter diaries that we're getting in the Hollywood Reporter and Variety and elsewhere, a lot of old people who weirdly have become Quentin Tarantino stans out there in the world who don't want foreign language films

to be nominated in their big categories and who don't like a war movie as much as they thought they would. Maybe we start to see a little something rattling. If she wins here, could indicate something unique happening. Sure. I think that's possible. Also, we know there's probably not the strongest support for Little Women inside the Academy. And I believe Little Women did not win the most recent costuming Guild Awards. It did not, yeah. So this is another category that is a little bit of a coin flip. Likewise, if you see Joker or JoJo, get some love here. Similarly, maybe those films are catching more awards a little later in the telecast.

This will be an interesting one to watch. Let's go to production design. The nominees, The Irishman, Bob Shaw, and Regina Graves. JoJo Rabbit, Ra Vincent, and Nora Subkova. 1917, Dennis Gassner and Regina Graves. Jojo Rabbit, Ra Vincent, and Nora Subkova. 1917, Dennis Gassner, and Lee Sandales. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,

Barbara Ling and Nancy Hay. And Parasite, Lee Ha-Joon, and Cho Woo-Woo, Ha Ga-Ram, and Cho Hee. What do you got? This is a tricky one.

I am going with Once Upon a Time, even though I think that Parasite, it just has a real chance. And if Parasite wins this, I think maybe some of our hopes for Parasite later in the evening might come through. That sounds nice in theory on both counts. I think 1917 will be winning. Okay, that's fine. My vote is for Dennis Gassner, who I think is as essential to telling the story as Roger Deakins. And I think there are a lot of people who work on the craft side of these films who would agree

based on the very intricate nature of the like maze puzzle that the whole movie is and that Gassner is really responsible for a lot of that construction. What those sets look like

and how and what pathways the camera would have to shoot inside of them. That's all. These things are really stitched together in the making of the movie.

That being said, I could be wrong. I think that's true. I mean, you do also have to, the thing that people say about Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, I think this was like a major theme of the rewatchables that you guys did was, they just made LA look like old LA. They did. And that is both like very visible and integral to that movie and easy to understand. And if there is that old person interest in once upon a time, I don't know. It's possible.

There's a, there's a frequently unspoken and sometimes spoken subtext to all of my picks, which is like, I just kind of think once upon a time should win most of these categories. And if not once upon a time, parasite like it, and they go,

they'd kind of trade back and forth and occasionally even the Irishman, which does not seem to be winning anything based on what we've chosen so far, which is fascinating. Let's winning anything based on what we've chosen so far, which is fascinating. Let's continue. We have two sound categories. I don't think it would be useful for either of us to try

to explain the difference between them. Can we just do both? I picked the same winner. Oh, wow. You're just, you're hand-waving. But the nominees are not all the same. That's true. Okay, go ahead.

So what we'll do, we'll do it quickly. Sound editing comes first. Ford versus Ferrari, Don Sylvester. Joker, Alan Robert Murray. 1917, Oliver Tarney and Rachel Tate. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Wiley Stateman. Star Wars, The Rise of Skywalker, Matthew Wood and David Accord. 1917 is your pick?

Yes. That is mine as well. I don't mean to diminish the work of any of the names that you just read or these excellent films. I just do really feel like this is where the 1917 train is rolling in. I agree. Also, Wiley Statement is a hell of a name. Yes, absolutely. That sounds like maybe my son's firstborn name.

Okay. Sound mixing. 1917, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson. Ad Astra. Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson, and Mark Lano. Ford versus Ferrari. Paul Massey. David Giamarco,

and Stephen A. Morrow, Joker, Dean Zupanchich, Todd Maitland, and Tom Ozanich. And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler,

and Mark Ulano. Mark Ulano nominated here for both Ad Astra and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. So he could be running two out of five pretty good odds. Unfortunately, he'll be losing to 1917. Yes, exactly. Which is sad for him. We both agree about that. Tough beat Mark Ulano. Good luck next year. Let's go to the last couple categories before we take a break and cross the halfway point, okay?

Okay. On to original score. I weirdly don't feel confident in this one at all, even though there is a heavy leader in the clubhouse. But you think this is where the surprise can happen? It's plausible. I'm going to read the nominees. Okay. Joker, Hildur, Gwanda Duttyr, Little Women, Alexander Das Plot, Marriage Story, Randy Newman, 1917, his cousin Thomas Newman, Star Wars, The Rise of Skywalker, the aforementioned John Williams.

You're going with Joker? I am going with Joker. That is the clear favorite, but I know exactly what you're saying. I can almost like picture us watching the Oscars and then suddenly, but it's like, it's not Randy Newman, you know, it's honestly Alexander Desplat for Little Women. And then we're just like, what? And you can, I can hear all the beats and I can see the face that you look at me, you make to me when this happens. So you're not wrong. I think in the last five years,

Alexander Desplat has elevated himself to the class of Thomas Newton Howard, Hans Zimmer, you know, Randy Newman, the most sort of recognized, admired composers of their generation. And he's already won before. And I think that this work is better than the films that he's won for in Little Women it's really one of my absolute favorite scores of the year really powers the movie in a lot of ways and it's frankly damn fun to listen to and if for some reason the Academy decided you know what he should win again I would not be surprised by something

like that I also wouldn't be surprised by either of the Newmans it'll be sad for Thomas Newman if he doesn't win I think this is 15 and he's 0 for 15. That's tough. Not what you want. Randy Newman, his cousin, has never won in this category but nominated eight times. John Williams, he'll be all right.

I know, but watch it be John Williams then. Could be. Could be. A denouement of some sort. Wow. Okay. It'd be like Emperor Palpatine

coming back from the dead. Nope. I have to say, I really enjoyed the work of John Williams in The Rise of Skywalker. It's the only thing I liked. He's splendid. And also that little guy who yells. Babu Frick. Yeah. Yeah, he is good. Yeah, so we're both going with Joker,

and I think that's correct. Okay. Original song. Amanda's favorite category. Just delete the category. This is a tire fire of nominees. I know. We don't need it. But there are some good songs. Do you think that Billie Eilish is going to perform all five of these? No, I do not. Like a Billie Eilish medley? I do not.

No. No, she'll just do the Bond preview? It's been speculated that she will be performing the In Memoriam tribute. Oh. I read someone said that she would be singing The Beatles' Yesterday during the In Memoriam tribute. Oh, okay. Which I'm not a fan of yesterday, but it's okay.

Excuse me? It's fine. Why are you doing this to me in the middle of an Oscars podcast? That's stupid. Why do you feel that way? You are even a Paul person. The Beatles is one of the things that you and I share and agree on. And yesterday is excellent. And like, why do you have to be this

overthinking, like, you know, antagonist person? Are you done? I'm upset with you. And now we have to talk about the freaking original song nominees. It's just, it's lesser Beatles is my take on yesterday. Original song. I'm very sorry to both of you guys, but facts are facts. It's just, it's Lesser Beatles is my take on yesterday. Original song. I'm very sorry to both of you guys, but facts are facts. It's nothing against the Beatles, Paul, or the Greater American Songbook. I was going to try to help you through your lingering illness and bring the energy and pick up on the announcing when your voice goes out. And now I'm reconsidering that. Honestly, you weren't going to do that. So don't pretend to the audience like you were going to be some white knight, all right? Any opportunity to put me under the bus is being taken.

Original song. I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away, Toy Story 4. I'm Gonna Love Me Again from Rocketman. I'm Standing With You from Breakthrough, a song I've never heard. Into the Unknown from Frozen 2. And Stand Up from Harriet. I went with Elton John. I did as well. I'm Gonna Love Me Again. Elton John and Bernie Taupin. I went with Elton John. I did as well. I'm going to love me again.

Elton John and Bernie Taupin. And I love Elton John and I'm looking forward to him having an Oscar. Is this the 368th best Elton John and Bernie Taupin song? Yes. I don't remember it. It's not memorable. I've heard it once. Can we just... Into the Unknown just gets worse with age. Not that I've been listening to it, but just my memory of it. I kind of like it. Okay. Moving on. Let's just keep going.

I think it's not bad. I think it might be the best song of this bunch. I can't let you throw yourself away, but I like the other song from Toy Story 4. Okay. The one that... Who's the country singer who sings it? Chris, can you help me out here, Bobby? Any idea?

I was a lonesome cowboy. What's that song called? Is it Lonesome Cowboy? Isn't that how it goes? Chris Stapleton. Chris Stapleton. Very talented singer-songwriter who sings Randy Newman's lyrics for I Was a Lonesome Cowboy. But I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away, which is sort of the Forky anthem.

Okay. cowboy but I can't let you throw yourself away which is sort of the Forky anthem okay Forky is the uh discarded fork who is transformed into a toy in the film Toy Story 4 which is a very normal movie but normal stuff um is nominated here instead which is a shame should I open every show with I was a lonesome cowboy yeah that would work really testing the vocal cords here I uh yeah playing with fire we're both going with I'm Gonna Love Me Again. This category sucks, and they need to completely rebrand it. And that's probably something we should have addressed in the last podcast. Nevertheless, we're going forward. Best film editing.

Intriguing category. This is for the real wonks out there, I think, this one. Yeah. So the nominees are Ford vs. Ferrari, Michael McCusker, and Andrew Buckland. The Irishman, film with Schoonmaker. Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles. Ferrari, Michael McCusker, and Andrew Buckland. The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker. Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles. Joker, Jeff Groth. And Parasite, Jinmo Yang.

What'd you go with? I went with Parasite. I went with Ford vs. Ferrari, but I think you made a good choice. I based it on the fact that Parasite did win at the Eddie Awards. It did. As did Jojo. As did, sure the Eddie Awards. It did. As did JoJo. As did, sure, but I'm ignoring that

in order to make my argument. And I do also think, I mean, man, that movie just, there isn't a wasted second. There isn't. I think it's hard to know if this is a degree of difficulty category or not.

Sometimes in its recognition it is, and sometimes it's about a kind of smoothness in the film. Parasite is a freshly mopped floor. You know, it is clean. Ford versus Ferrari is really noisy and all over the place and messy, but it's also like pretty sleek unto itself. Ford versus Ferrari feels like more of a feat to me, but I could be wrong about that.

I am not an expert at all. In fact, I think if you want to learn more about this, I would encourage you to go back, listen to the episode that we did with Barry Alexander Brown last year, who edited Black Klansman, who was Spike Lee's editor and helped us understand, I think,

what an editor really does in the room and how they shape a movie. Ford vs. Ferrari feels like the kind of movie that had so much raw material to work with to put together. Parasite, as you and I have talked about a lot this week, is meticulously designed and organized. And so the way that it's cut, it's sort of pre-cut, not quite in the same way that 1917

is, but you know what I'm saying? Yeah, I do. But I do also think that that kind of understates the way that it is fit together because it does turn on a dime. And like seconds matter in that. Yes. Unlike The Irishman in which minutes and days matter.

And you know, Thelma Schumacher, like literally one of the most historic editors in movie history. And she has gotten a lot of mud slung in her direction during this Oscar season, shamefully. But I don't think that there's any chance that she has a chance here. Joker and Jojo, again, who knows? Like this is the same sort of category where if a film like that wins, all bets are off, I think, in all the categories.

If Jeff Groth wins for best editing here for Joker, we might be headed down a weird path. I actually like when that happens. You know, Joker stuff aside, when you get a surprise like that and you're like, oh, does this kind of tip the scales in one direction or another going forward? It'll be such a more fun Sunday night for all of us. I think if something like this started to happen. Similar thing here. This is not a category you want to place bets on, I would say.

Agree. Cinematography. This will be the last before we take a break. Perhaps the easiest to predict. Yes. I think this is the biggest favorite of the night. The nominees are The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto, Joker, Lauren Schur, The Lighthouse, Yaron Blaschke, 1917, Roger Deakins, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Robert Richardson. Shout out to my brother in the Dark Skies app, Roger Deakins. Yes, it is Roger Deakins. He will win his second Academy Award, richly deserved.

And then we'll probably just keep talking about 1917 for the rest of the night, but maybe not. Maybe. Maybe this is the last award it gets. Sure. Yeah. Okay.

It's a very strong tease before we go to a break. But please stick around. We'll be right back after a word from our sponsor. Today's episode of The Big Picture is brought to you by masterclass masterclass lets you learn from the best with exclusive access to online classes taught by masters of their craft for example you can learn how to play poker by watching the big homie daniel negroni one of the greatest poker players of all time show you how he plays certain certain hands. Amanda, you've used Masterclass in the past. Who have you used one for? I have watched Anna Wintour teach me and everyone else how to be a boss.

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regmovies.com slash podcast to learn how to join. That visit regmovies.com slash podcast to learn how to join. That's regmovies.com slash podcast. Amanda, we have returned. Here we are. We are offering a masterclass of our own. Are we? Well, we're trying.

We're really, we're trying. We're offering a master class in guessing and in having crises of confidence in front of a microphone. I feel like I've been time-traveled back to my pre-calc class circa 1997. Sure. And I don't feel good about it. Yeah. I was bad at pre-calc, just not one of my strengths, which is why I'm a jerk with a mic right now, not crunching numbers. And our numbers are, I think we're feeling fine. I think we're matched on all but two categories so far, which is an interesting sign. Although that also means we've been talking about these races together for a long period of time. So if you're looking

for variants, you're not likely to find it. We're heading now into the big categories. The big eight. You ready to talk about the big eight? I am. The first of the big eight is original screenplay. Now, change my vote three times in six hours on this one. I've changed it twice. Okay. The nominees in this category are Knives Out by Rian Johnson, Marriage Story by Noah Baumbach, 1917 by Sam Mendes, and Christy Wilson Cairns, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood by Quentin Tarantino, and Parasite by Bong Joon-ho

and Jin Won-han. What did you choose? I still have like the highlight on this particular pick, like come back and revisit this and think about it. All right, here we go. I'm going with Parasite. Okay. I had Parasite for quite a long time and I have changed it back to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I had Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and I changed it back to Parasite. Okay. I had Parasite for quite a long time, and I have changed it back to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I had Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and I changed it back to Parasite. We've been talking a lot about predictive results and what Guild Awards mean and where things are going. This category in particular has been completely disrupted this year

because Tarantino is not a member of the WGA, so we don't know the result there. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won-hun won this award for the WGA just a few days ago. The support for Parasite seems very strong right now. And this is also a Best Picture indicator, this category. The winner of this category frequently is paired with the Best Picture winner. 1917 is, it's almost certain that it's not going to win, even though it's the prohibitive favorite by a wide margin to win Best Picture.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems to have been blown off the map for Best Picture. But this group of voters loves Tarantino. He's won twice already. I think he's made the joke that if he wins a third time, he wants the award to be renamed the Quentin. Quentin never, never, never shy on, on, on boastful comments. Knives Out has no chance, despite it being absolutely fantastic. With all respect to Rian Johnson. Yep. Uh, I, I, there, I still, in my heart of hearts, want to see Marriage Story get some love. And I, I think this is Noah Baumbach's best chance to get recognized for this sort of thing.

And it doesn't, just doesn't seem like it's going to happen. So it's Parasite and Once Upon a Time. Yeah. What pushed you to Parasite? My ultimate theory that this award is used to reward things that don't get Best Picture or the big prize. And I am aware that I've picked Parasite for several other categories, including Best International Feature, but I do feel that there is a really strong Parasite push and a very strong bong affection. And I think that it's this group of voters who are the likeliest to go in that direction. That feels and sounds right, and I

have no idea because foreign films are not frequently, if they're particularly rarely nominated in this category. And so we don't have a lot of historical evidence to measure it against. Obviously, Parasite is highly relatable to anybody who watches it, but it is a distinctly South Korean story. And again, if you read some of those nasty anonymous voter diaries, there's some bad takeaways in there about people who don't want to watch foreign films. Can we talk about those for a second? Sure. You can do as you please. Oh, thank you. I didn't actually know that I could on this podcast. I refuse to give those too much of my time. I think they're great content and shout out to everyone who gets them. And there is something gross but fun reading them. But number one,

you're not going to put your name on it. Like I'm not giving you the time of day. Like go home, cowards. And number two, I do feel like they are always, they're representative of the extremes as opposed to the norms of the Academy. So I'm hesitant. Are they?

What are we basing that on? I don't know. Just what you hope is true? Basing on all of the people, based on patterns of people who are willing to speak and be in comment sections and be in, you know, I just... In theory, that sounds right. There's no way for us to prove that.

That's true. My expectation is that most of the people in the Academy are like 63 years old, haven't done something super meaningful in about 10 years, but are quite certain of what great filmmaking is. And frankly, they know more about it than I do because they've made films and they have been in the trenches in many cases, not in all cases, but in many cases. And they are convinced of their own way of thinking about the world as the generational divides grow and grow and grow.

That does dictate a lot of how these awards turn out. I just don't, I don't think that there's nothing to take from those things. And I do agree that there's great content. I don't think there's a lot to take from them. Like, I wouldn't make my picks based on what I read an anonymous stranger say in a trade publication, but they could be lightly indicative of the way the wind is blowing in certain categories. So, I do read them. I read them every year because I'm a nerd. I didn't say I don't read them. I think mostly I want to say is put your name on it. I hear you. I'm done. We have a split here. Will this be the last time we have a split? Probably. Okay. Let's keep going. Adapted screenplay. The Irishman, Stephen Zalian,

Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi, Joker, Todd Phillips, and Scott Silver, Little Women, Greta Gerwig, The Two Popes, Anthony McCartan. Well, the moment of truth. I mean, I'm going with Jojo Rabbit. As am I. This is the smart money. I'm not happy about it. And that has less to do with Jojo Rabbit, which it's not about that. It's about Little Women and Greta Gerwig.

Will you wear a GoPro when this award is announced during the telecast? No, I won't. Okay. Just think about it for the content. No, but can you wear a GoPro that's on your face? I thought it was always like looking outwards. Flip that jam around, you know? Nope. Won't be doing that. Well, also, if you've decided to run into the canyons of Hollywood and screaming, that also would be good content, I think, if you had to.

I think I've threatened like 15 times for 15 different outcomes that I'll just like run to the Dolby Theater and bang on the doors. For this one, though, I don't know. They don't deserve my protest for this because they aren't taking it seriously enough. What deserves your protest is a fascinating sub-conversation that maybe we can explore later. Let's go to supporting actor, shall we? Yes. One of the only good things left on the board. I'm so nervous about it now. I mean, I know what I picked and I know what I think is going to happen, but if it doesn't happen, I mean, that's a real GoPro situation.

The nominees are Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes, Al Pacino for The Irishman, Joe Pesci for The Irishman, and Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I picked Brad Pitt. Brad Pitt will win. I honestly think that someone should make me wear football pads or something in case this doesn't happen, or maybe just protect the television. Amanda, me, you, and Bobby will be watching on Sunday. And you need to tell us beforehand whether we need to be wearing pads or whether you'll be wearing pads.

I don't know. Who can say? Who can say? I do think that we should put some sort of guardrail on the TV. Understood. Okay. I will also take a lot of a leave before the telecast just in case. Cool.

To protect my body. I'm going Brad Pitt. It's going to be Brad Pitt. What are we talking about here? He's won every single award. He's crushed every single speech. He's crushed every single speech. His performance in the movie rules. Should have won five Oscars by now.

The guy's great. Did a whole podcast about him earlier this year. One of my favorite podcasts we've done. I could talk about his movies all day long. I agree with all of this. And it's the Academy. And this is the time to panic. Do you think he should have won for 12 monkeys?

Oh my God. Sure. He's nominated Yeah, why not? Okay He should have won for Fight Club, that's the thing He should have won for Moneyball Both are true Let's go to Supporting Actress

The nominees for Supporting Actress are Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell You remember Richard Jewell? I do Okay Laura Dern for Marriage Story Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit. Florence Pugh for Little Women.

Margot Robbie for Bombshell. Laura Dern will win this award. Why? We worked so hard to make this a decent podcast. And we got to the finish line. And now we're just arguing about yesterday and how much padding that everyone should wear while watching the Oscars. Well, that's all we've got at this point. I know. We're just going to yesterday and like how much padding that everyone should wear while watching the Oscars. Yes. Well, that's all we've got at this point.

I know. We're just going to sit here and talk about who. I think actually one of the unfortunate effects of the flattening of the Oscars is we come to take cool stuff for granted. Laura Dern and Brad Pitt winning supporting acting at Oscars is a cool thing. And for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Marriage Story, two movies we love. Yes. It's a pretty great and cool thing, and we've completely taken it for granted because we've talked it out.

And we've seen these people give a lot of speeches, and there's nothing novel about it whatsoever. Yeah. I wonder if there are teenagers out there, like you and I were teenagers once upon a time, watching the telecast and kind of getting excited about somebody that we think is cool winning an award. If there is a little bit of like,

I actually really like Laura Dern and I think this is neat and they don't feel overexposed. But if you're looking at the results of the Gotham Awards and the results of the Independent Spirit Awards and the results of the Critics' Choice Awards, and you keep seeing the same people going up time after time, seeing the same variations on a theme, like is everyone as overexposed to this stuff as we are, I guess is my question. No. And let me also just say for the record, I like Laura Dern and I think this is neat. My problem is not with Laura Dern winning this Oscar.

It's that we know what's going to happen, which is boring because you and I invest too much time in this. And also because also we make a podcast about it. And because it would be really nice if award season could be a way of celebrating a lot of different movies before we get to these conclusions. And I think it's just it hasn't been a bummer that Laura Dern has won every single award, but it's been a bummer that no one else has won any awards. That's I guess that's ultimately that's the smartest way to put it, the way you described it. There's no, there's no drama. We don't have any expectation of anything else happening.

And that's actually a bad version of it. And it doesn't undermine the win. And historically, no one's going to even remember. I don't think anybody's going to remember like, oh, well, Laura Dern wanted to walk and that sucked for all the Oscar prognosticators. That's bullshit. Nobody cares about that. But it does, it does kind of remove some

of the intrigue around the telecast and it's important for the tv show as you've put it to be good and entertaining and surprising to people to give them something that they were not expecting to see yeah that is the essence of drama and just kind of feels like they're gonna fail at that you sounded like you were just doing an intro for one of the movie clips. Inside the Actors Studio. You were just introducing Jojo Rabbit. Bradley Cooper, what is the essence of drama? Okay.

I should lose my voice every week. Okay. Best Actress. What's going on in this category, man? I don't know. Okay. Here are the nominees. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet, Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story, Saoirse Ronan, Little Women, Charlize Theron, Bombshell, Renee Zellweger, Judy. Renee Zellweger. I have Renee Zellweger as well. It will come to surprise no one. I was listening to our pals, Wesley Morris and our

boss, Bill Simmons, talk about the Oscars on Bill's show. And Bill said the same thing that we've been saying for the last few months, which is like, I straight up just don't get this. Like, I just don't get it. She's already won. And while this movie is good, and she's good, I mean, the movie's not even good. The movie's okay, and she's good in the film. There are thousands of great film performances on screen every year. Why this is the one that we all decided someone deserved a second Oscar for, I just, I will never understand it. I think this is, this actually more so than the anxiety that we're talking about with Pitt and Dern and the no drama. This actually is literally the problem with the Oscars. The consensus building that

happens early on around something that is fine that most people haven't seen, that is like kind of meaningless and will be forgotten very soon and will actually not mark the history of a film past. It'll just be an industry award and that's it. And also that we know that the entire time that it's happening and we're still going along with it. There are a lot of comparisons to be made to The Wife last year, which we identified and made a joke of pretty early on in the season because no one had seen it. Everyone was like, Glenn Close is going to win for the wife. And ultimately, she did not. And that was a big surprise.

There isn't a spoiler here in this category. And so even that self-consciousness of like, why are we doing this is not going to pay off to anything. She's just going to win. I agree. Now, I trade emails with a handful of equally psychotic Oscar history friends. And both of my Oscar history friends have both said, for whatever reason, I think if there's a really wacky surprise coming in the major categories, this is actually the place where you're going to see it. Yes.

Because it feels so chalk. You know, the chalk has been completely like melted into the ground. It's been laid out so clearly for so long. I don't know. I think that would be the kind of fizzy pop that we need in the telecast. There's literally no evidence that this is the case. It's just a feel thing that they're saying. Like something just doesn't seem right.

The way that this calcified so early just seems off. Sure. But there just hasn't been a break in it. At least last year, it was a very similar situation. At least last year, which was, it was a very similar situation, except Glenn Close,

God bless her, had not won an Oscar. Yep. And, but you had Coleman in comedy at the Golden Globes. She won a BAFTA. Yes.

So there, there were indications. There is, there's nothing here. You're right. There, I don't think that Cynthia Erivo,

Scarlett Johansson, Saoirse Ronan, or Charlize Theron have won anything at any of the other award shows. So we'll just have to wait and see. Best Actor, one of the most competitive categories that we've seen in recent years. There probably were 15 people who were up for this category, but there's probably only one person who ever had a chance to win it. The nominees are Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory, Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Adam Driver for Marriage Story, Joaquin Phoenix for

Joker, and Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes. I have my friend Joaquin Phoenix. I also have Joaquin Phoenix. So everything we just said about René Zellweger, but for a person who hasn't won named Joaquin, I think applies here. He's won everything. Yes. No one has stood in his path. Once Upon a Time, I thought Adam Driver was going to go toe-to-toe with him in a very exciting Oscar race, and that has simply not been the case. Yeah. I don't know what they do about this. I don't know how they resolve the inevitability factor. We've talked about it a few times in the past few months. I do think it is arguably the single biggest issue that the Oscars faces in its long-term future, the fact that everything just feels settled. And particularly in the acting categories, because a lot of people may not have seen

all the movies, but they know who some of the people nominated are. And they will tune in because Leonardo DiCaprio, they know that name, or they know who Kylo Ren is if they don't know who Adam Driver is. And for there not even to be a reason for people to invest in the really famous people who are nominated for Oscars is bad news. shockingly winning for My Cousin Vinny. Those are the kinds of moments that the show needs. And because of the large number of award shows that happen ahead of time and the intense coverage of those award shows that used to be just sort of ignored, like nobody gave a damn

what happened at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival five years ago. Certainly the people that cover this stuff closely do, but that industry has gotten bigger and bigger and our ability to find that information has gotten easier and easier. And so because of that, the information loop has gotten tighter and tighter and more obvious and the consensus building has happened more quickly. And it's frustrating. I mean, I said on the Once Upon a Time rewatchables that I think Once upon a time is Leo's best performance. Like, I think it's his funniest, his weirdest, his most vulnerable.

I think he's kind of doing the most that he has in years, even more than the Revenant in a completely different kind of way. And like, we never even had one conversation. I know. It's a shame. I think it's his second best performance after the Quailid scene in Wolf of Wall Street. He's incredible in Wolf. Which I have said many times, but it is certainly the most memorable Leo performance to me or the most instantly, oh, it's Leonardo DiCaprio kind of

reaching the heights of himself while also being a standalone performance. Yeah. And I think there's an interesting division between the first half of his career, the kind of Romeo and Juliet, Titanic Leo, and what he means to a generation of people there. And then the second half, which is, you know, in the middle, he had the Catch Me If You Can's and the Aviators, and he's sort of building up his credibility as a serious actor. The last 10 years or so, he's been having a lot more fun. Django Unchained, Wolf of Wall Street, this movie, The Revenant looked really hard to make enough fun, but it was a kind of an adventure. He's taken on a different kind of tact in the film roles that he's taken on. I love that about him, but we just don't care because he won already. Antonio Banderas, will he ever be nominated again? He ran a magnificent campaign. He seems like a

wonderful guy. He's great in everything he's in, even if he's playing a total ham like he was in Doolittle. He was pretty good in Doolittle. He was pretty good. He's trying his best. You're always glad to see him. You're always glad to see him. And he's very good he was pretty good he was pretty good he's trying his best you're always glad to see him you're always glad to see him and he's very good in Pain and Glory and a very different kind of performance

didn't matter Jonathan Price same thing I mean he's great in everything that he's in The Two Popes is okay it's pretty good it never had a chance here

yeah he seemed like he could have been interchangeable with any number of different people Eddie Murphy Robert De Niro Adam Sandler

could have swapped in a whole bunch of different people into this category. It's been Joaquin the whole way. You don't mind? No, everything that I said about the predictability and wanting to see other people honored and kind of bringing audiences in still applies. I will say, and really everyone knows how I feel about this movie, but this is a memorable performance. I at least understand why this performance is in the conversation. And I sort of understand why Renee Zellweger as Judy Garland is in the conversation, but it's just because she's doing a Judy Garland impersonation and the Oscars like that. I think

it was Roger Sherman on The Hottest Take who said it best, which is we should just have a best impersonating someone category at the Oscars. But Joaquin, at least, that was unique. It was unique. I think he's given a good performance here. I think it's in the top 18 of performances he's given, which is classically Oscars. But we knew months ago. The actors flipped for his work and it was over in November. Let's go to Best Director.

Okay. Two categories left. Martin Scorsese for The Irishman, Todd Phillips' Joker, Sam Mendes' 1917, Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bong Joon-ho Parasite. What'd you do? I went with Sam Mendes. As did I. Do you think we're running scared or do you think we're being pragmatists?

Both. Is it possible to be a scared pragmatist? Been that way all my life. Okay. Then here we are. I think you got to try to do what's right. You got to try to do what's right. It's just all of the signs are there.

He wanted the Golden Globes. He wanted the Golden Globes. He wanted the DGAs. Everyone loves this movie. I think you're right. I don't even really have a case. There's been nothing to indicate that he's

not going to win. I think that's, I don't want to get too psychotic about it because as we've said, like 1917 is a successful film in a lot of ways.

But I just think this is like a nightmare. This is just such a travesty. Him winning two Best Director Oscars over Marty getting his second, over Quentin Tarantino getting his first, over Bond getting his first, over Greta and Noah not being nominated. It's a fucking nightmare. It's so stupid. And I don't want to turn this into a mini-hark, but it kind of infuriates me. And I'm obviously obsessed with this category and obsessed with filmmakers. I think about this shit all the time. And him winning again, after winning for American Beauty, which now everybody wishes they could take back, is so stupid.

And it's not that he's not talented or not an impressive person or hasn't brought meaningful stuff to the screen. I like a lot of his movies. Just why is this person getting a second best director Oscar? It's so dumb. I agree with everything that you said. This category, I love three of the directors in this category, but the way they handled it this year is just a mess, top to bottom. And I forgot to do the archival, but maybe someone can do this, or maybe Bobby can do this. If you go back to our

Oscars, Irresponsible Oscars Prediction Podcast from October. I think we were talking about the wonder of this category. And you said, as an offhand joke, wait until February when Sam Mendes wins for 1917. And we hadn't even seen 1917 and none of it had happened. October 29th, Reckless Oscar Predictions. Let's go to Best Director. Okay. Similarly, this is,

I, a bit fraught here. I need to, I need to see 1917 before I can answer this. So I'll do, I'll give you my runners up with that in mind.

Okay. I have Sam Mendes on the outside looking in. Okay. It's completely possible that that changes the minute they start showing this movie,

which I think they're going to start showing it to us at the end of November. Okay. That's so late. It is late. It is late. I think those first screenings are like November of November. Okay. That's so late. It is late. It is late. I think those first screenings are like November 23rd.

Okay. So I've got Sam Mendes, Pedro Almodovar, Marielle Heller, Fernando Morelos, Lulu Wong, and James Mangold on the outside looking in. Okay.

My five picks are Martin Scorsese. He's got eight noms. Yeah. He won for The Departed. Noah Baumbach, zero nominations for Best Director. Bong Joon-ho, zero nominations for Best Director. Greta Gerwig, one previous nomination.

And Quentin Tarantino, two previous nominations. We're five for five again. Okay, so I think that... I really, I put Baumbach in at the last moment, and I had Sam Mendes in for a long time, and then... It's because you've seen one movie and haven't seen the other. Right, I had some second thoughts about 1917, and again, I know I keep saying they're releasing it really late, but they're releasing it really late.

There's so much recency bias that goes into this stuff. I just saw The Irishman, so I'm like, Al Pacino's going to win. Right. Even though Brad Pitt is unbelievable in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Yeah. So I picked Quentin to win. Okay. I think I agree with that. Okay. I don't, I have no feel. If you told me that like Mendes and Almodovar and Fernando Morelos are going in this category, I'd buy it. It's very possible. Now, I think it feels like

the kind of thing that filmmakers are rewarded for what Quentin did with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I think it is that sort of wistfulness that you were describing earlier is a feeling that I think

people want to get across. And that's the sort of thing that somebody like Guillermo del Toro won for with The Shape of Water. It had a kind of nostalgic summation of his project. Yeah. And I think that's what Once Upon a Time does for him as well. Yeah. I think even when Once Upon a Time came out, we were talking about how this is the type of movie that a director wins for, which is to say it's a comment on a career rather than the pinnacle of the career. People rarely win for their actual masterpiece. Now, I kind of think What's Fun at a Time in Hollywood is a masterpiece. But, you know, and we don't need to get into Tarantino rankings right now because I don't need to be the person on the Internet I was making fun of like 20 minutes ago.

But wait, what Tarantino movie do you think he should have won for? Isn't it for Pulp Fiction? I don't know. I think there's a good case for Inglourious Basterds. I mean, Inglourious Basterds is my favorite. Yeah. But, you know, and again, what does this award mean? Is it like the best pure, is it for that like athletic Sam Endy style directing?

Is it for like the breakthrough, the crystallization of this person has a vision and finally did it? They made their great movie. Is it for a career? It's usually more of a Lifetime of Achievement Award than like the one great movie. Yes, I think that's right. And that's ultimately why I picked Quentin. You could tell me any of these people would win. I would buy a Scorsese win in a heartbeat. I think it's completely possible. Because it is a guy still working with power, with juice. Never forget that I hate myself. Yeah.

And I have a keen sense of these things because I hate myself. And I am consistently fascinated by things that do not reward me, like the fucking Oscars. Yeah. I don't know why I'm so bent out of shape about this, but there did seem to be something oddly inevitable. And part of it, to the film's credit and the marketing of the film, is early on, people were saying, in June, a friend at lunch said to me, clear the decks for 1917. It will win everything.

It is that kind of movie. And that person has watched the Oscars for years, is a voter, knows how all this stuff works. That person was completely right. And I was trying to say it in an offhanded way to kind of make a joke to seem clever. I knew what I was saying and I feel fucking bad about it. It's a damn shame. So I meant it seems like a nice guy. Sure. Does it matter? Not really. Remember when he was married to Kate Winslet? I do. I just also, he was in a New Yorker profile. There was a New

Yorker profile of him by John Lahr, I believe. And he said some like pretty dismissive things about Skyfall, his own movie. And moving on. That's what I have to say. That sucks. Let's go to Best Picture. Okay. This is the big award, Amanda. Are you familiar with Best Picture? I've heard of it. We've been talking about it quite a bit on the pod this week. We made, I thought, a fairly sincere and feverish pitch for one of the films to win. I'd be delighted with four or five of these films winning. As would I. Let's run down the nominees one last time before Sunday night.

The nominees for Best Picture are Ford vs. Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. I chose Ford vs. Frye. Poor Ford vs. Frye. You know what? It just really did not deserve what it got to just be the butt of all the jokes. It's going to play so beautifully in all the home theaters of the Marvin Schwarz's around the world. You know, all the rich guys were like, I need a 35 millimeter print of Ford v Ferrari. But the print will say Le Mans 66, the English

title, which is what the movie should have been called. Yeah. Don't you agree? No, I think that. No, we talked about this. You know that I believe in movie title SEO. Ford versus Ferrari. I've heard of those things. And it worked. A lot of people did go to see this movie. Is that what the movie's even about? It's not about that at all.

It doesn't matter. You know this. You write headlines. You're just trying to get people to click. Is Enzo Ferrari the villain of the movie? It doesn't matter. People know what Ferrari is. People don't know what Le Mans is.

I don't. It's Le Mans, for Christ's sake. You're the French lady in this podcast. Yeah,. People know what Ferrari is. People don't know what Le Mans is. I don't. It's Le Mans, for Christ's sake. You're the French lady in this podcast. Yeah, but you know what? I can't stand the people who are just like, croissant or whatever, okay? I just, I'm trying to speak to my audience. Yep.

Okay. Your audience of who? No, I really don't know at this point. If you are a part of this audience. Anti-Francophiles? No, I really enjoy France know at this point. If you are a part of this audience. Anti-Francophiles? No, I really enjoy France. You know, I hope they work everything out. We veered into dangerous territory.

Let's veer back to best picture. I'd be cool with the Irishman winning. I'd be absolutely elated if Little Women won. I don't know what I would do. We would also need protective gear in that situation, but in a positive way. Because we would just start running into each other aimlessly? I guess so. Would we just start punching each other?

Watching the Oscars with you guys is way more like a moshing, like an emo concert than I was expecting. Getting me prepped for My Chemical Romance in October. You never know what you're going to get. Bring your boxing gloves. I'm going to be like a young, I don't know, what's a reference here? Chuck Liddell? Who am I in the octagon of Oscar content? Why are you asking me to name people who fight in the octagon?

Okay, we don't have to ask you that anymore. It'd be awfully sweet if Marriage Story won. It would. It would be sick if Once Upon Story won. It would. It would be sick if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won. Okay. I would be. I would be thrilled. I'd be pretty fired up. Yeah. I just can't hide it. I just think this movie's great. I've watched it like seven times now. I'm just an enormous fan and I'm not ashamed of it. I don't really care if Joker wins. I do not want Jojo Rabbit to win, which is not to say I don't like Taika Waititi. I do like Taika Waititi and I think he's very talented. This movie gives me

Shape of Water vibes, which is like, this is a really great artist who made something that I just didn't get at all. And I hate the idea of rewarding him for this instead of something else that he's going to make that's going to be way better or was way better before. I would take Thor Ragnarok over Jojo Rabbit a hundred times out of a hundred personally. And I find that to be another tricky part of Oscar history. I really don't know what I would do in that situation. It'd be weird.

It's not out of the realm of possibility. And I think as far as betting goes, I said this to someone last night, I think that this is weirdly one of the only wild card bets that I could recommend. If you've got a little stray cash and you're like, you know what? I don't want to just want to take a shot in the dark. Put a little money on Jojo. I think the odds are 10 to 1 right now. Who knows? Moonlight won.

Like that, there was no one thought that was going to happen. It could happen. Something could come out of nowhere to make that happen. Now, Parasite is a little different. Parasite and 1917 are the two films that I think we're choosing from here. What went through your mind as you were figuring out where to go? Being a, what did I say? Like a scared pragmatist, first and foremost. You know, I had an interesting conversation. I guess it was, it will be Tuesday night.

This Tuesday night with my Oscar history nerd friends who were talking about kind of some of their research and talking about their vibe. And we're like, I think Parasite can do it. I think Parasite can do it. Here's what I think. And I said to them, what I'll say to you is like, I've done this before and I won't be fooled again. I remember when we both switched our, I think it was 2017 picks from Shape of Water to Get Out at the last minute. I certainly do. I was going to mention that.

Because we were like, there's just something in the water and I can really feel it. And it's people are open-minded. And like, of course- You know what was in the water? A weird fish man created by Guillermo del Toro. And that didn't happen. And I honestly think if you had picked the time of the week before the Oscars when we decided to do that, it was like Tuesday night, Wednesday, and just trying to open our hearts to something bigger.

And I know better. And so I'm going with 1917. As am I. And this is the moment when our souls died. We spent, I mean, I did the same thing last year. I'm fairly certain I felt strongly that Green Book was going to win. And then I just chose I did the same thing last year. I'm fairly certain I was, felt strongly that Green Book was going to win. And then I just chose Roma like a complete schnook. I'll never forget watching the Oscars with you and Green Book win, won. And we, we looked at each other like, oh no.

And then you just like angrily snapped your computer down and stalked out of the room to the podcast studio without a word. I was really, that was good. It's just, you know, they're my bad boyfriend. Yeah. You know, they're my withholding father. They're my selfish friend. They don't really ever give you precisely what you want. And that's not its job.

They being the Oscars. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. There are other things I have that relationship to, but I'm not sure we should talk about that right now. Okay. Yeah, I think it's 1917. I actually don't think it's complicated, and I don't think Parasite is going to win. Now, this puts us in a wonderful position because we either get to be right, which you and I both love

because we're insane narcissists, or or is that why we like being right? I am an insane narcissist but I wouldn't have connected the two impulses anyway continue you're welcome to think whatever reason you want I think it's because

you're an insane narcissist okay or we're wrong and we're happy yeah unless Jojo Rabbit wins in which case this has all just been

a strange farce sure and then all the people who for months have been like why don't you guys like Jojo it's really awesome they get to In which case, this has all just been a strange farce. Sure. And then all the people who for months have been like, why don't you guys like JoJo? It's really awesome. They get to feel good and be right and have a nice night. And we have spent four months exploring something that we don't understand at all. Yeah, that's not a happy outcome. Not an ideal ending.

What if there's a write-in vote for Avengers Endgame? I am inevitable. I was just wondering, to go back to Jojo Rabbit, do you think my friend Archie Yates will be there? Hand-waved me on that one. I did. Well, I was just thinking about what if Archie Yates gets to be on stage?

I don't care. I don't care about Archie Yates. It's so rude. He's like ninth. He's the eighth lead in Jojo Rabbit. Yeah, but he's like eighth lead in jojo rabbit yeah but he's memorable okay um i i don't i am not excited a lot of people have been asking us are you excited about the oscars maybe we've already answered the question on this podcast this week but now it's this is the last one well let me let me shock you a little bit by saying i am excited i know i'm always excited i don't know what the

telecast is going to hold this is probably the excited. I don't know what the telecast is going to hold. This is probably the least information we've had about what the telecast will hold ever. We know about Billie Eilish performing a song. We know who the presenters are going to be because they circulate that information. And boy, the presenters sure seem to be an effort to make up for the fact that a whole lot of white people

are nominated for all the awards. That's been fascinating to look at the incredible diversity of the presenters, which feels like such an awkward makeup for the fact that the body doesn't vote for all the right people all the time. And that's pretty much it. There's no host. Don't know what the length will be. Don't know the order of the awards. These are new producers who have never produced the show before. This is a new Academy president. We don't know anything. Maybe it will be the beginning, the dawn of a new age of Oscar greatness. And we'll feel really good about our decision to spend all this time on it.

Your optimism shines through in such surprising moments. That's so nice. Thank you. I like watching the Oscars. Okay. That's where I am. That's tepid. Okay.

We both like watching the Oscars. We'll be watching the Oscars on Sunday night, following along closely with every award, making note of who got what right and wrong. You ready for Sunday? I am. We'll see you on Sunday night live right after the Oscars. Please tune in immediately after the telecast. We'll be coming to you live on Twitter and on YouTube where you can watch us talk about everything that has just happened. And of course, the podcast will be going live immediately after that. We will see you next time. automatically loaded to your account in 48 hours, visit regmovies.com slash podcast to learn how to

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