The Big Picture - Predicting the Nominations For the 2020 Oscars | The Big Picture

Episode Date: January 10, 2020

With the 2020 Oscar nominations set to be announced Monday morning, we run down a list of 15 categories and attempt to predict which films, filmmakers, actors, and craftspeople will be nominated (0:45). Then, Sean sits down with writer-director Destin Daniel Cretton to discuss his film ‘Just Mercy,’ working with Michael B. Jordan, and his cohort of collaborators in the film community (1:07:12). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Guest: Destin Daniel Cretton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelley, and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. A new season of The Bachelor began this week, which means Bachelor Party with Juliette Lippman is back in full swing. She's back twice a week, with Monday's show covering each new episode and Thursday's show covering Vanderpump Rules with several appearances from David Jacoby. This week, The Bachelor himself, Peter Weber, joins Juliette to talk about the season ahead. You can subscribe to Bachelor Party wherever you get your podcasts and join the Bachelor Party Facebook group for insights, gossip, breaking news, and more.

I'm Sean Fennessy. I'm Amanda Dobbin. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about the Academy Awards. Later in the show, I'll have an interview with Destin Daniel Cretton, the writer-director of Short Term 12. Cretton has a new film called Just Mercy, based on the book of the same name by the lawyer and civil rights activist Bryan Stevenson. I hope you'll stick around for that. But first, Amanda, we're finally here. And let me tell you, I'm getting really, really excited about the Academy Award nominations. How are you feeling? Well, we will be doing our predictions later in this show.

And I feel stressed and vulnerable and unsure. I lack the courage of my convictions. I did not enjoy this process. And now I have to share all of my guesses with the world at large. It's not about feeling wrong. It's about feeling good. That's the thing to keep in mind here. Are we excited to talk about these things?

Are we hopeful? Are we these unborn embryos of hope looking forward to the Academy Awards? Absolutely. Why would you bring hope into this? Because that's the part of the natural life cycle of the Oscar season. And we just exited, I think, one of the uglier parts of the season, which is the Golden Globes. And we are entering a truly fertile time.

We will be giving birth to something beautiful soon. Okay. This just got really vivid. I'm really, really excited. I don't know what it is. I was poring over all of the categories. And there's a lot for us to talk about before we get to our predictions. And we'll predict not every category, but most of the major categories here on this podcast. But a lot has happened in the categories. And there's a lot for us to talk about before we get to our predictions. And we'll predict not every category, but most of the major categories here on this podcast.

But a lot has happened in the interim. So let's talk about where the Oscars stand right now. First of all, they came really quickly. This was a very shortened season, a truncated season. Monday morning at 5.18 a.m. Pacific, we'll be getting those nominations. And the show starts on February 9th, which is, I think, the shortest season in history, if I'm not mistaken. Which is really odd, considering you'd think we'd be elongating these things over time to get more content out of them. But the Academy decided earlier run time, one week after the Super Bowl. And we got some information this week. First of all, no host.

Yes. Officially confirmed by the Academy. How are you feeling about no host? I feel great about this. There was no host last year. Yes. Officially confirmed by the Academy. How are you feeling about no host? I feel great about this. There was no host last year. Yes, it went fine. I thought the show was perfectly clean and the ratings were up and we got a good telecast. So they're running it back.

Now, I don't think that the show needs a host. I do think that this means that the show's ratings will go down. You think it's a cause and effect from the no hosts rather than the fact that it's 2020 and no one watches live television anymore? I think that that is certainly a factor and maybe a much bigger factor than the host. But I need to point out that last year, think of all the panic and anxiety and emergency podcasts we had to do because Kevin Hart was the host. But then he wouldn't apologize. And then he wasn't the host anymore. And there was a popular Oscar. And then there was not a popular Oscar. And there was all of this energy around the Academy Awards. Right now, I think there's actually a lot of energy around movies, which is good. We're in a great time for movies.

And I think 1917's win at the Globes and its opening wide in theaters is another time where another great film has hit theaters and people are fired up about going to the movies. That's all great. It's not great for an award show, though, because there's no tension around what's going on other than who's going to win. Well, counterpoint, there is a lot of attention around who's going to win, and we'll talk more about that. But I do think it'll be an interesting race. You pointed out there are a lot of there's excitement about movies and particularly a lot of the movies that are nominated. And, you know, this is just a theory. But maybe if there's less hubbub or like dragged out controversy around the ceremony itself, then people are just like, oh, the Oscars.

Should I watch that? I don't know anything about, you know, maybe you're just grabbing people in a moment of enthusiasm instead of fatigue. I saw someone on Twitter make a suggestion, which I thought was very clever. Now, I personally believe that when you have a year like this in which the movies are good and the race is interesting, but there isn't that anxiety that we're describing, you need a host because a host creates a narrative all his own or all her own. Someone suggested after seeing Will Ferrell present an award, Will Ferrell might be the best awards presenter in the history of awards because it feels like everything he's doing is occurring to him in real time, which is the opposite of most people who are just reading off of a teleprompter. But what if Will Ferrell was just the co-presenter of every award?

And we just shuttled out a new person. You know, here's Meryl Streep and Will Ferrell. You know, here's Jack Nicholson and Will Ferrell. Here's Isla Fisher and Will Ferrell. Let's keep bringing in all of these randos. You know, Chris Evans and Will Ferrell. He would have chemistry with all of them. He wouldn't be the quote unquote host,

but he would just have to riff in 180 second bites. Because what you're looking for is continuity. A little bit of continuity, a little bit of clarity, a little bit of like, what will this be like? A little bit of anticipation is what I'm looking for. And a narrative for sure and a name to say like Will Ferrell is the co-host of the Oscars. He's the co-pilot. Sure. I love Will Ferrell and he's probably one of like two comedians that I actually laugh at.

So I would be open to that. But I think that idea is a more specific version of a larger idea, which is the presenters are always the fun part. That's actually always the thing at the end of the night where we're like, what were the highlights of the Oscars besides the awards? And it's someone or a pair of people who had three minutes and they made it work. And what I like about the no host option is that it dispenses with the monologue and all of like the creaky machinery and actually does give you the option of just let the presenter shine. How do you think the show should open this year? Didn't we had a musical number last year, if I recall? What was it? A musical? Wasn't it? Wasn't it Queen with

Adam Lambert and a performance of We Are the Champions? Oh, God. I had blocked that out. Remember that? No, I didn't until this moment. I think two years ago, I may be mistaken, but I think two years ago we had a Justin Timberlake performance opening it up, a song from Minions. Remember that? In case you're wondering why the Oscars are seemingly always in peril, that's how they opened the show the last two years. Not ideal.

I have totally blocked these out of my memory. It's like they don't happen. I think that they should not start with a song this year. Shocking to hear you say that. Believe it or not. Well, I think that, and similar to in practice, if maybe not in execution to what I believe the Emmys did a few years ago, where they had a bunch of people come out to fill for the host. And they did do a musical number. And it was a little bit tongue in cheek about diversity in a way that I didn't totally love. But get a bunch of famous people on stage to start because that's that that is that's the thing that I want to borrow. OK, so and maybe it's maybe not nominees, but presenters or just

people you like to see. I'm sure you could get that. We always come back to The Rock, but like you can get him on for two minutes. I don't know, put the Endgame cast on. What do I care? You know, right before we started recording this podcast, we were having a quick chat about John Mulaney. Great comedian. He's got a great special on Netflix right now. Shouldn't he just be the host?

Shouldn't they just make him the new Billy Crystal? He did a great job with Nick Kroll in the Independent Spirit Awards a couple of times. He has a kind of, he's becoming universally accepted, I think, as a Seinfeld-esque comedian for our time. I think young people and old people can agree on him. But he also isn't necessarily famous for one thing. He's famous for being a comedian. And I think a lot of the best Oscar hosts are like that. And he does have kind of an old school vintage vibe, but it is updated. He's like sort of meta traditional, if that's a thing that you can be.

I think that's right. I think that's a good way to describe it. Is the vibe that I think works best for the Oscars, because at some point it is about history and tradition and you can't throw all of that out because then there's no significance to the Oscars left. But you do also need someone who can kind of wink at it. Or at least that's my preferred mode of, this is a little bit silly, but also we're really interested in it. I guess that's kind of the theme of this podcast. That's true.

And I think, you know, in that, Mulaney was interviewed in The New Yorker this week. And in the interview, he made reference to a woman named Nora, who is Nora Lum, who is also known as Awkwafina, who is clearly a friend of his. When he mentioned her, I couldn't help but imagine the two of them hosting an Oscar ceremony and how much sense that makes. Now, obviously, Awkwafina may or may not be a nominee this year, so that could be problematic for her. But I don't really see it as being a big problem. I just think my guess is, my prediction is, before we get to the predictions about the awards, is that the ratings are going to go down anywhere between 15 and 20% from where they were last year. And last year was an unusual kind of year with Black Panther being involved, a lot of controversy being involved, The Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody. There were a lot of very, very big films.

There are some big movies this year, but not nearly as many. And there's just no heat. Now, there's heat for me and heat for you. We're doing this for a living. We love it. We're historically interested. Yeah. But I don't know. Your regular old Jane and Joe moviegoer, I'm not sure.

I do think that the ratings are going to go down, but I say that every year just because it's practical of how people are watching things. It would be cool if the Oscars started transitioning into what I think they should be long term, which is the ceremony for people who actually are excited about movies and who do watch movies. This might be the biggest test we've ever had of that. It's very possible that that is the show we get this year. We're going to get some musical performances. I'm sure we'll get an In Memoriam tribute. Maybe we'll get one interpretive dance sequence or comic set piece. But for the most part, with no host and a lot of awards to give out and a desire to stay within that three to

three and a half hour runtime, I think it's going to be movie, movie, movie, movie, movie, which we'll see how that does. I'm curious. Let's talk a bit about where the narratives are going. You know, I mentioned that there's not as many big movies this year. There's been a story on Vulture this week about the Avengers Endgame campaign. Did you check that out? I did. I don't think Endgame has caught any traction here. Yeah, I don't think that that will happen beyond that piece on Vulture. Do you think Endgame being nominated would have helped the ratings? I suppose so, because I just think of Grace, your sister, who would watch. Yes. How do we get 15-year-olds to care?

But if you told Grace that Chris Evans was and, oh, God, why can't I think of Spider-Man's name? It just vanished. Tom Holland. Very adorable. If he was going to be on stage, do you think she would watch? Perhaps, but they haven't been promoting that. Yeah. So it's hard to say.

I mean, Chris Evans is in a movie that might be nominated for Best Picture. It just happens to be called Knives Out. It's all about how you position these things. Speaking of positioning, all of the craft bodies have nominated their awards. They're slightly smaller

awards than the Oscars. So we've got the Producers Guild of America, the Writers Guild of America, the Directors Guild of America, and essentially the British Oscars, the BAFTAs.

All those nominations came out this week. So the timing is good for all of this tea leaf reading. Let's start with the PGAs, which I tend to think is the strongest prognosticator for what Best Picture is going to look like. These are the 10 nominees that the PGAs chose. 1917, Ford vs. Ferrari,

The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Knives Out, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. Notable omissions? Yes. The Two Popes. Not here. Yeah. Could be a death blow for The Two Popes in this category. Very possible. No bombshell, no Richard Jewell, no Just Mercy, no A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

No Uncut Gems. Which is a shame. Doesn't mean it's over for all those movies. They all could make it back. Any other takeaways that you had just looking at the PGAs? Ford versus Ferrari, still hanging on. Very notable. And, you know, we had talked a bit about how Jojo Rabbit was getting, was quieter before this past week. And we'll just highlight Jojo Rabbit here because it's not the last time we're going to be talking about it.

No, as we go through all of these awards, we may hear that name over and over again. Speaking of, let's go to the WGAs. Now, the WGAs, of course, just like the Oscars, splits it into original screenplay and adapted screenplay. There are some caveats here

that we'll talk about. So for original screenplay, we've got 1917, Sam Mendes and Christy Wilson-Karens, Booksmart, This is a Mouthful, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, and Katie Silberman, Knives Out, written by Ryan Johnson, Marriage Story, written by Noah Baumbach, Parasite, written by Bong Joon-ho, and Han Jin-won,

Story by Bong Joon-ho. So important to note there that Quentin Tarantino is not a member of the Writers Guild of America, and so he is not nominated for Best Original Screenplay for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, despite the fact that he just won the Golden Globe, that you could make the case that he is a prohibitive favorite or a co-favorite with Noah Baumbach in Marriage Story in the Oscar race. Adapted Screenplay,

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Micah Fitzerman Blue and Noah Harpster, The Irishman by Stephen Zalian, Jojo Rabbit by Taika Waititi, Joker by Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, and Little Women by Greta Gerwig. Generally speaking, the WGA nominations are not to be trusted because there are a lot of complicated and antiquated rules around who can and cannot be recognized. For example, Anthony McCartan, who wrote Darkest Hour and who also wrote The Two Popes, is not nominated here for either adapted or original screenplay because there was some

consternation around which it was and what fits where and when it was submitted. And all of that complication, I think, clouds this. It's a little harder to get takeaways here. But was there anything that jumped out of these 10 nominees? Well, obviously, it's notable that Booksmart is in original screenplay. I'm not sure that was on anybody's shortlist. I do think the fact that a few screenplays were not eligible, obviously, including Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but also, I believe, The Farewell. That's right. Because of the language classifications for the WGA. Original screenplay is extremely packed and good for Booksmart,

a movie that I enjoyed. Yeah. And Katie Silverman in particular, who I think is very talented. Absolutely. I don't know whether that will transfer.

I would doubt it. As you said, this is a loaded category and I feel pretty strongly that 1917, Knives Out, Marriage Story, and Parasite

are all going to be there, which makes this kind of a fascinating showdown. But we'll get to that when we talk about the Oscars. Adapted screen Out, Marriage Story, and Parasite are all going to be there, which makes this kind of a fascinating showdown. But we'll get to that when we talk about the Oscars. Adapted screenplay, to me, is actually significantly less competitive. It's one of the least competitive categories this year, I would say, arguably. Original screenplay notable because most of the competitors are writer-directors. It's almost all entirely directors who wrote their own films. Adapted screenplay, with the exception of Taika and Greta Gerwig, is the opposite.

It is mostly people coming in adaptations or Todd Phillips co-writing with someone or something along those lines. Speaking of Todd Phillips, let's go to the DGA nominations. Five filmmakers here for Best Director for a Feature Film. Bong Joon-ho, Sam Mendes, Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, and surprise, Taika Waititi. Jojo back. JoJo's not dead. In fact, JoJo Rabbit is one of the only movies in this entire race, one of the most celebrated movie years in the last 20 years,

to capture PGA, DGA, WGA, tic-tac-toe. Incredible. Do you think Taika's going to be nominated for Best Director? You don't have to spoil your whole prediction, but do you think he will be there? It is actually spoiling the whole prediction because I think we're all agreed in this category that there are four locks. You think Bong Joon-ho, Sam Mendes, Martin Scorsese, and Quentin Tarantino are locks? I mean, you know, the world is a mysterious and confusing place and many things can happen. But I think that I feel confident

and I think there's consensus on those four. I do too. Best director historically, not historically, the last five years has been pretty wonky. There's always one like,

hey, Ben Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, but not Ben Affleck for Argo, for example. A notorious example. We'll have to see. Now, of course, there are no women here.

This is not the most diverse collection of people, but Todd Phillips actually is not here, which there are many prognosticators who think Todd Phillips will be here in Taika's place. That, of course, would mean no Greta Gerwig. It would mean a great number of other people who are not nominated. There is, however, a first feature category that the DGA identifies. Now, Mark Harris made a suggestion on Vanity Fair of creating a first feature category that the DGA identifies. Now, Mark Harris made a suggestion on Vanity Fair of creating a first feature category at the Oscars. I have long believed that this should be a category. It's a no-brainer.

It is the Rookie of the Year award for the Oscars, something that everybody loves to talk about and vote on in sports. I don't know why we wouldn't integrate it here. The DGA did a great job, I thought, of identifying a bunch of first-timers. So their nominees are Matty Jopp for Atlantics, Alma Harrell for Honey Boy, Melina Matsoukas for Clean and Slim, Tyler Nilsson and Michael Schwartz for The Peanut Butter Falcon, and Joe Talbot, The Last Black Man in San Francisco. Interesting collection of people.

Obviously, just as many women as men. Yes. People of color in this collection of people. A lot of feel good filmmaking stories the story of Honey Boy getting made the story of the last black man in San Francisco

getting made the story of the peanut butter falcon maybe more than any of these getting made is inspiring and it's a lot more fun I think

to root for people like this than say and I mean this with no disrespect Sam Mendes Sam Mendes got a Best Director Oscar he's living a lavish life.

He made a great film. But it's more interesting to me to have a discussion about what Alma Harrell is going to do next and what she accomplished with Honey Boy and what makes the directing so great in that film. So what do you think about the first feature Oscar? Yeah, I agree with this. I think we've talked about this in terms of directing

and also breakthrough performances. It obviously, in terms of the show and the conversation, adds a lot of energy. It's, you know, more things to talk about. But, you know, fundamentally, I think it does give a spotlight to people who can then hopefully go on and continue to do work. It does have some sort of value in terms of attention in the industry. So why would you not do that? I agree. So we'll use this opportunity to tease something. During Oscar week, me and you and Wesley Morris are going to convene, and we're going to create a new award show, the Alternative Oscars. We're going to create all the categories we've always wanted to create, and we're going to give out all the awards and nominate films that we want to nominate.

Are you ready for that? I'm extremely excited. It's going to be bonkers. It'll be a really good time. Let's go to the BAFTAs. Slightly more problematic collection of nominees here. So, headlines.

Joker amassed 11 nominations, closely followed by The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, with 10 each. That's probably not the noisiest takeaway, which was a BAFTAs-so-white campaign emerged once more.

The BAFTAs historically have a lot of challenges when it comes to recognizing diverse performers and people of color in any of their categories. So the clearest way to identify that is that Margot Robbie was nominated for two awards in the same category, and no people of color were. And Scarlett Johansson was also nominated for two BAFTAs, one for supporting actress and one for lead actress. There are also no directors of color here. And just as a little bit of context, I received an email from two different friends citing this fact, and then I read this fact in Kyle Buchanan's breakdown of the BAFTAs issue in the New York Times. Denzel Washington has never been nominated for a BAFTA. He has nine Oscar nominations and two wins. He is the Katharine Hepburn of our generation

in terms of one of the most recognized actors never been nominated at the BAFTAs. Would you say the BAFTAs have a race problem? Yes. It's pretty evident that there's something wrong here. It's apparent. And there was a huge outcry and the BAFTAs, I believe, are now investigating their own race problem. So it's unavoidable and undeniable.

Not what you want really at all if you're the BAFTAs. I did have one other takeaway. Well, two things. One, I think outstanding British film is always a fun category to look at because there's always a couple of films there that I haven't heard of that haven't come to the States and maybe even haven't played festivals

I noted this on Twitter but there's a film called bait that really got my attention but directed by a guy named but I believe Mark Jenkins which was which marker mode the British

film critic who is sort of the most well-known British film critic raved and called the best film I believe of the decade best British film of the decade I'm looking for. If you can show me the movie Bait, hear me now on this podcast. Find a way to show it to me. I'll go wherever you are in the greater

county of Los Angeles. Also for Sama, there was big support for this movie, which I thought was very notable in terms of Oscar race, because there is a lot of crossover here with the BAFTA voters and the Oscar voters in the Academy. I was going to say that that's an important distinction. So even though there is obviously some there are some challenging issues with who is and is not nominated, who is nominated does really matter to the conversations that we're going to have and the predictions that we're going to make. Shall we take a break to hear from our sponsor? Please. Today's episode of The Big Picture is brought to you by Masterclass.

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slash big picture for 15% off Masterclass. Okay, Amanda, it's prediction time. Okay. Still feeling that churn in your stomach? Yes, because I don't like being wrong. And I also... That's it. That's it. That is the source of tension. Of course it is. But I can say that honestly. That's not a surprise to anyone who's listening to this. Okay.

Nor do you like being wrong. I hate to be wrong, but I am frequently wrong. I'm also frequently wrong. I want to put the official tally on our Golden Globes predictions. I believe we were both five of 14. Oh, I thought we were four of 14. I believe it was five. Good for us.

Thank you very much to... I don't were four. I believe it was five. Good for us. That's thank you very much to, I don't even know what got us over the line. I guess Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for best musical or comedy. The other thing that causes anxiety for me, we'll just turn this into my therapy session quickly, is that- Is that not what it usually is?

Yeah, right. It's a good point. But as you have noted, I like to be prepared. I like to dot all the I's, cross all the T's, feel like I'm totally, you know, in command of what's going on. And that's hard every year. But I found it particularly difficult this year because of the accelerated timeline.

As you mentioned, all of the guild nominations came out. But also voting was already closed and things were sped up and you're just kind of, you know, comparing and contrasting and making your own homeland board. But the comparisons, even to past years, aren't really the same. Alone with, like, my thoughts and my attempts to understand Academy voters, which is a challenge and not something... I don't know. So I'm nervous. I'm nervous. But I'm prepared. I did it.

As always, we are in this together. Okay, thank you. This is you and I on a journey. Except for when I asked for help with animated pics and you were like, no. Well, do your homework. That's my advice there. Watch the films. Make some decisions.

Read the tea leaves. So we're in this together until you don't help me at all. We're in this together is just something I say but don't mean. Okay, I know. Let's make a couple of notes before we get into the predictions. We're not going to be picking some of the categories. There's two reasons for that. The categories we won't be picking are live action short, animation short, or excuse me, animated short, documentary short, sound editing, sound mixing, visual effects, makeup and hairstyling, production design,

and costume design. Now, there's a few reasons for that. It's not because those categories aren't important. I think they're very important. In fact, when they were cut from the telecast last year, a few of those, I was very angry. I think that's not cool. These are significantly important aspects of filmmaking or categories, styles of filmmaking, genres, genre type shapes. It's mostly because we don't know as much about this stuff and we can't make a seven hour podcast. So I don't want to pretend to know what the sound mixing nominees are going to be. I don't think that that makes a lot of sense. And I don't think it's necessarily as fun to describe because I don't want to just come off like some well-informed jerk when I'm not.

I do that well enough already just talking about Best Picture. Right. We will make actual predictions on just talking about Best Picture. Right. We will make actual predictions on the winner of those categories. Absolutely. Once we get the nominees, we will make some predictions. And we'll understand a little better. Maybe we'll even have some of the nominees on this show to talk about being nominated. We've done that in the past too.

I'm not above that. It's more just 24 categories is quite a bit. Frankly, I think there should be 30. We'll leave that for another episode. So, we begin. I'm going to begin with best cinematography okay i'm going to read my my guesses first and then you can read yours now i will say we've each chosen a wild card in addition to our five yes so we'll have five nominees that we're predicting plus a wild card plus i'm just going to caveat this out the ass like it's no i have i have many wild cards so many so many caveats as we talked and

frankly this is a this is a podcast of cowardice it's not a podcast of bravery because i'm i don't even know what i don't there's too many good things there's too many things there's too much hope well oh so that's interesting we should talk about that because I want to be clear that my predictions are not who I think should win or be nominated. Nor mine. At all. And in fact, I really had to fight against that instinct because we do this all the time. And at some point, I let that hope in. I let my personal connection or enthusiasm in.

And then I am devastated. Every year I do it. Yeah. So I did my best to resist that until like 15 minutes before we recorded this podcast where I just scrambled with my phone pics. I don't know. I can't. You give me too much time, you know?

Once more under the breach, best cinematography. Roger Deakins, 1917. Fade in Papa Michael for Ford versus Ferrari. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Lawrence Scher, Joker. Okay. My wild card is Jaron Blaschke for The Lighthouse.

Okay. We are four of five, and I replaced Fade on Papa Michael with Jaron Blaschke in my nominations. But my wild card is Fade on Papa Michael versus Ferrari. So I also included a don't rule out for this category. Fejmi Daut and Samir Juma for Honeyland. I think it's possible that because there is a lot of support for Honeyland, this is the Macedonian documentary about beekeepers, which is...

And life. And life, truly. And that is the most Oscar line of all time, the North Macedonian documentary about beekeepers and life. And life, truly. And that is the most Oscar line of all time. The North Macedonian documentary about beekeepers and life. There is a lot of support for that movie. I don't think it's going to crack this. I think that six that we've just described is a very, very tight six. Blaschke, I think that would be so cool if he was nominated.

I personally don't see it. I don't know if the support is going to be strong enough. I think it's unusual for a movie like Joker to come along. And Lauren Schur, who did, I thought, great work on that movie, but is not historically recognized by the Academy, also being included with four pretty much heavyweights. Deakins and Richardson in particular are two of the most celebrated cinematographers

of the last 50 years. I mean, they have upwards of 30 nominations combined. They've all got several wins. There's an expectation here that Deakins is just going to walk away with this one because of his work on 1917. And if you care about Roger Deakins, I would encourage you to check out The Big Picture next week. Amanda, Chris Ryan, and I will be dedicating an episode to his great works along with 1917. So that one seems pretty straightforward to me. We're okay to disagree on one.

Yeah. I mean, we just flipped our wild cards. We flipped our wild cards. Hence, we're cheating a lot. Best editing. You ready flipped our wild cards. We flipped our wild cards. Hence, we're cheating a lot. Best editing. You ready? Why don't you read yours first? Okay. This is one that I changed at the last minute. I don't even know what I'm doing. Okay. Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, Ford vs. Safari. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman. Lee Smith, 1917. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story. And Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Five for five. Okay. All right. What are your wild cards or card? Jinmo Yang for Parasite. Yes. That is mine as well. Now, there's two others.

Yes. That I think are notable here. Jeff Groth for The Joker. Now, we don't yet know how the Academy actually feels about Joker. We know that they're going to nominate Joaquin Phoenix. We know that Joaquin Phoenix is more than likely to win. Aside from that, if you catch a best

editing nomination for Joker here, you better watch out. This could mean a lot of below-the-line support, and a lot of below-the-line support will mean maybe even a victory, and certainly a Todd Phillips nomination. So watch this category closely because it will say a lot. If we don't see Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland here for best editing,

you can bet Ford versus Ferrari will not be in best picture. So there is a lot of if-then happening in this category. The one other why not more buzz to me is Ronald Bronson and Benny Safdie for Uncut Gems. Yeah. I thought about doing this, but I just, I think it's really that this season is too short. I agree. I think it's also

a want versus, it's a desire versus expectation sort of game that we're playing. Now, I've heard from a couple of people

that the support for that movie is bigger than we think, even though it has not been recognized by the PGAs, the DGAs, SAG, WGA. It has not been recognized by any of them. Adam Sand it has not been recognized by the PGAs, the DGAs, SAG,

WGA. It has not been recognized by any of them. Adam Sandler has only been recognized by critics groups. That being said, sometimes there are movies that are just Oscar movies, that just the Oscars care about a lot and critics care about. So I wouldn't totally rule it out. And if you see Uncut Gems in Best Editing, don't be stunned. It's in play. Winner of Best Editing has won Best Picture just once in the past few years, in 2013 for Argo. The only time in the past five years that a film that was not nominated for an American Cinema Editor's Eddie Award was nominated for Best Film Editing at the Oscars was

2016 when Spotlight slid in. A couple of notable facts for you. So we're pretty close so far. Yeah. I think we're gonna be close. We're gonna be close. Is that consensus? I don't know about that. I felt like there were three or four in every category that I was like, this is going to happen. And then it really is the one or two that you're just plucking from other nominations, but also

vibes and hope. This next category is the only one that I feel I will get completely right. Okay. Best original score. Okay. My nominees, Alexander Desplat, Little Women, Hildur Gundedoder from Joker, Randy Newman, Marriage Story, Thomas Newman, 1917,

and John Williams, Star Wars, The Rise of Skywalker. My wild card is Michael Giacchino from Jojo Rabbit. Okay. We flipped. We're four for five, and I put Michael Giacchino from Jojo Rabbit. Okay. We flipped. We're four for five. And I put Michael Giacchino in because of all of the Jojo Rabbit. And who did you take out? John Williams, but he's my wild card.

And I felt bad doing that. And I think basically I took it out because I was so moved by my John Williams experience at Rise of Skywalker. And he is our greatest living film composer. IMO. And I was like, I can't have the things that I want. It's a great take. Guess how many nominations John Williams has. Guess.

One? In his career? I don't know. More. Okay. Keep guessing. Well, I don't know. When you said guess, I thought it was going to be like, you know, disgracefully low instead

of, so should I go on the other spectrum? It's value neutral. Guess. Am I guessing just Oscar nominations? Yes. Oscar nominations. Okay. If one was not the answer spectrum? It's value neutral. Guess. Am I guessing just Oscar nominations? Yes. Oscar nominations. Okay. If one was not the answer, then like 18.

More. Really? Good for him. Keep guessing. 33. More. What? 45.

More. 57. 51. Okay. 51 Oscar nominations for John Williams. Great. And I think he's getting 52. He. Okay. 51 Oscar nominations for John Williams. Great. And I think he's getting 52. He deserves it.

We'll leave it at that. Best original song. Why don't you read your nominees? You're making me read my least favorite category. Into the Unknown from Frozen 2. Stand Up from Harriet. Spirit from The Lion King and Beyonce. I'm Gonna Love me again from Rocketman

and Glasgow from Wild Rose. So we match on four of five. What was your wild card? A glass of soju from Parasite. Okay. So I put I can't let you throw yourself away from Toy Story 4 in here. Okay. Now among prognosticators, this is not tracking high, but Randy Newman always hits in this category. That is true. And I feel like he's going to hit again. And I've got Glasgow from Wild Rose as my wild card. Now, it would pain me, as listeners of this podcast know, for Jesse Buckley not to be able to perform this song at the Oscars. That, to me, is probably the thing that I would be most looking forward to other than seeing the winners of Best Director and Best Picture, because those are the categories I care about most. We'll see who's right.

I just think that Mary Steenburgen has really been campaigning. She's been hustling. Ted Danson also has been hustling. Did you see Ted Danson's adorable for your consideration tweet? Yes, they are running arm in arm. That's very sweet. That's the right amount of spouse campaigning, in my opinion. It's just like a very endearing tweet.

I hope she gets it. I hope Wild Rose is there. That would be a good story. You know, Randy Newman, they may overlook him in part because he's definitely going to be nominated for best score. Yeah. So we'll see there. I took a chance. I started a new trend of highlighting everything in red that I don't feel good about.

And I don't feel good about I can't let you throw yourself away. Okay. Next category, best documentary feature. Very tricky. Very, historically very tricky. My five are American Factory, Apollo 11, The Cave, Four Sama, and One Child Nation. Okay, interesting. Now, my wild card is Honeyland.

Yeah, so we flipped. My wild card is One Child Nation, and I put Honeyland in. There's a reason for this. Now, like I said, I think Honeyland is really, really admired. And Neon has done a terrific job with this campaign

just like they've done a terrific job with their Parasite campaign and their Apollo 11 campaign. It's been honestly a tremendous Oscar season for Neon, which is a very small company

and is only a few years old. But it's related to the next category. Now, the other wild card that I have here is Maiden. Did you see Maiden?

I didn't. It's about the team of women who have here is Maiden. Did you see Maiden? I didn't. It's about the team of women who sailed in America's Cup. Is it America's Cup? I may be getting that wrong. That sounds familiar. Okay. Interesting documentary. A little bit pro forma, but a great story and an inspiring film.

I think Apollo 11 and American Factory, and I think those are really the only two locks. The Cave and Forsama, I think, are both essentially stories about Syria. And it's possible that there may be some canceling each other out there. Now, that's kind of a grotesque way to describe such a serious subject matter in both of those films. Frankly, the subject matter in every single one of these films is quite serious and quite important. You know, the power of capitalism and globalization in American Factory, the loss of American ingenuity in Apollo 11, war-torn Syria in two different films. The one-child policy in China.

Maybe the most severe of all. Like, all these things are very intense. Sometimes you get a, you know, a Morgan Spurlock-style movie in Best Documentary Feature. Not this year. Everything is very, very serious. Best International Feature Film. Why don't you read your nominees? Les Miserables from France, Atlantics from Senegal, Pain and Glory from Spain, Parasite from South Korea, and Honeyland from North Macedonia.

That's my five as well. This is maybe the category I feel most confident about. Watch out for Beanpole. Okay. I know, which is the, I was about to say is the way that I feel most confident about. Watch out for Beanpole. Okay. I know, which is, I was about to say, is the way that I get something wrong. Beanpole and the Painted Bird seem to be the two outliers here. Painted Bird is my wild card. Now, it's possible that I've got it wrong and that Honeyland's going in doc and not going in international feature.

We're going to find out. Okay. You and I are not experts in the documentary and foreign language film categories. We are just doing our best here. If the Painted Bird showed up and, I don't know, Atlantics wasn't in there, I wouldn't be stunned. I think a lot of people would be surprised given the provenance of Atlantics on Netflix and, you know, the emergence of Matty Jopp as a filmmaker. But we'll have to see there. I think regardless of what happens, Parasite is winning.

Yes. Like, no, if you want to put money I think regardless of what happens, Parasite is winning. Yes. Like, no, no, if you want to put money down now, you probably wouldn't get a very good return, but money down now is Parasite on the win.

Best animated feature, the category that Amanda claims total ignorance on. Yes. I have seen one of these movies. We might as well be honest. Is it Frozen 2?

It is. Frozen 2 is the first of my suggested nominees. How to Train Your Dragon, The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Missing Link, Toy Story 4.

Those are also my nominations. That's your five. Five for five. So there's three outliers here. Abominable, which I don't see getting any attention. It's possible that Claws,

the Netflix animated film, flips with I Lost My Body, also a Netflix film? I'll have to keep an eye out on that. And Weathering With You, which is an anime film from GKids, which has been nominated before. They made Your Song and a number of other films.

This movie hasn't been widely seen, but there is a strong contingency of fans for films in this subgenre. If Weathering With You comes along and slides in, I wouldn't be stunned. You're looking at me like I'm speaking Macedonian right now. I don't have a wild card. Okay. You don't have a wild card. Best original screenplay. Here you go. I don't feel good about this. I don't feel good about it. This is the most important category to me personally. It's where all of the

cool people hang out. And it's very competitive. And I feel stressed out. I love Best Original Screenplay. I also love Best Original Screenplay, but there are so many people who should be nominated. Okay, here's what I got. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino. Parasite, Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won. Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach. Knives Out, Rian Johnson. The Farewell, Lulu Wang. I knew you were going to do that. I did it at the last minute.

And because, and I don't, I love this movie. Again, this is not who I think should be nominated. I think Lulu Wang should be nominated. I think this is a fantastic movie and a fantastic screenplay. But my first draft of nominations, I didn't have anything from The Farewell in. And that felt possibly true to life, but also stupid. Guess what? I've got three nominations for, excuse me, I've got two nominations for The Farewell.

Okay. But not in this category. Okay. But not in this category. Okay. So the person I feel least good about in this category is Rian Johnson, actually. Really? I have Sam Mendes and Kirstie Kerens-Wilson. That's my wild card. Now, I just mentioned this thought about Joker and below-the-line nominees and all these other things. 1917 will be nominated for almost all of those awards.

1917 will be nominated for sound editing, sound mixing. It might be nominated for visual effects. It's going to be nominated for almost all of those awards. 1917 will be nominated for sound editing, sound mixing, might be nominated for visual effects. It's going to be nominated for a lot of stuff. That might be the movie that when they announced the nominations has the most nominated. The only thing holding that back is the fact that it probably won't have any acting nominations. But it's going to have a lot of below-the-line nominations.

I would, yeah, if it's not in a category like this, Mendes and 1917 are weak. If it is here, it's stronger, and we got to prep for that. Just one more caveat to put in mind. I do think it will be nominated here, and I do think Lulu Wang and Pedro Almodovar are kind of on the outside looking in. We'll find out. Best adapted screenplay. Now, see, this one to me is not hard, but I could be wrong.

I could be wrong. Is it my turn to read? It's not hard, but I could be wrong. I could be wrong. Why don't, is it my turn to read? It's your turn. So The Irishman, Steven Zalian, Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi, The Two Popes, Anthony McCartan, Joker, Todd Phillips, and Scott Silver, and Little Women, Greta Gerwig. Those are my five. So there's A Strong Feeling, Then A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood by Micah Fitzerman Blue and Noah Harpster could come in here. I just don't think that that movie is as well regarded as any of the five that we just mentioned.

I agree with that. And that's, I mean, that's my reasoning. It's also my wild card. Okay. So we're even, Stephen, on that one. Time to go to the acting categories. Okay. This is in the parlance of a different era. It's nut cutting time. Okay, great. Who do you got? For best supporting actor, Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Al Pacino, The Irishman, Joe Pesci, The Irishman, Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes. That's my five. Yeah. Let me tell you something right now. Yeah. Do not feel good about it. And I really, really, really wanted to put Jamie Foxx here. He's my wild card. Mine as well. I feel like he's taking Hopkins' spot.

You think that'll happen? No, I don't. I picked Hopkins. We matched on the picks. But this is arguably the one I feel least good about in the whole thing. Really? Yeah. Okay. You know why? Why? SAG. Yeah. SAG nominated Jamie Foxx and they did not nominate Anthony Hopkins. Yes. But here's the thing, because I spent a lot of time staring at the SAG nominations and we do that because the actors are such a large voting body within the Academy. So the SAG is supposed to be predictive.

But those nominations came out really early. Like, really early. In a way that just makes me think that there were a lot of things that hadn't been seen. It's possible, but Just Mercy is one of those movies that... That is true. I mean, it's only going wide today, essentially.

That is true. So I'm not sure. I mean, the two popes obviously played the festivals. And Just Mercy, I think I saw a screening of it in early November. So they started screening it fairly early. It's very hard to say. I think Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt are locks. I think Hanks is a near lock.

Hopkins, I don't feel good about. Now, there is also obviously this Song Kang-ho parasite factor here. You may have seen him meeting Brad Pitt at AFI. There's that incredible tweet about Song Kang-ho looking at his phone after meeting Brad Pitt and typing in, who is Brad Pitt, into Google. Did you see that? No, I didn't see that. Incredible. Thank you to the internet for providing that. That would be fun. That's the sort of thing that it happens occasionally in the Oscars. You know, like last year, Willem Dafoe was nominated for the Van Gogh movie. Right. And no one saw that coming. And it does also happen when there is a lot of juice behind

a movie. I'm thinking about Roma last year where Yalitza Aparicio was nominated, but also Marina de Tarraba was nominated in Best Supporting Actress. That's right. Very similar. It's a very good call. I think if you see Song Kang-ho here, same thing with a lot of these caveats, these a lot of if-thens that we're putting in there, like, watch out. That means actors are behind Parasite?

Watch out. Watch out for the Best Picture win for Parasite. Best supporting actress. You're up. I thought I just read this. You did. I'm up. Laura Dern, Marriage Story.

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers. Florence Pugh, Little Women. Xiaoxu Shen, The Farewell. Margot Robbie, Bombshell. Okay, we have four out of five. We're doing pretty good here. And I did something that I want to be clear I don't like what I did. I don't, like, well, I stand by my pick, but I don't like the world in which this pick comes true.

I think it's the wrong choice. You know whose energy you have right now? Who? Howard Ratner in Uncut Gems after he's had his nose broken and he's crying in his office. Okay. He's like, I'm not he's crying in his office. Okay. He's like, I'm not a good person. I'm not good. But I think.

That's you. Okay. That's fine. People loved that film and that performance. I love that scene. So that's my favorite scene. Is that, is that, that's before this is how I win? Is that when he's crying and then she shows him the tattoo?

Yes, exactly. That's a wonderful scene. So I'm not endorsing this. I just so want to be clear. Okay. Wait, are you going Jennifer Hudson for cats? Is that where you're going? No.

No, I have Scar Jo. Yeah. As number five. And I put Xiaozhu Zhen, who I love, whose performance is fantastic, and who I have been campaigning for in this category since I saw The Farewell as my wild card. I've got three wild cards. Okay. Margot Robbie for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

I've noticed a couple of people have been predicting that one, which is interesting, as opposed to Bombshell, because there doesn't seem to be a lot of strong support for Bombshell. Yeah. Scarlett for JoJo. Again, this is one of those things where if you see a lot of JoJo nominations, you can count on stuff like this. It's just also happened in every single other... Has it? Yes.

I believe it's also... She's SAG. It happened at the Golden Globes. It happened at the BAFTAs, which, you know, the BAFTAs have some other issues. It's a good point. So... Sneaky ScarJo win here?

She could steal it from Laura? I know. I don't think she'll win. But yes, she's also nominated for supporting of the Sags. You know, you and I are not the biggest fans of Jojo Rabbit, and we don't need to adjudicate that right now. But I honestly did think she was really good in Jojo Rabbit. I thought that that was arguably the best part of the movie,

aside from the kids, the interaction amongst the kids, the chemistry amongst the kids. I think that the work that she's doing there kind of reminded me of old school Scarlett Johansson a little bit, and felt like also a little bit of a preview for what kind of actor she'll be as she approaches her 40s. Yeah. This scene when she is playing both the dad and herself and they start dancing is really moving and she's excellent in it. Very good.

I agree. Annette Bening, the report, not here. I do have, I highlighted Scarlett Johansson and my notes are change this question mark and then annette benning question mark but no i i didn't have her on my wild card uh shasha shan is is highlighted in red for me as i'm not i don't feel great about this i would absolutely love it i i got a gut feeling but i don't feel good about it. Okay. Best actor, you're up. Okay. Again, I have five wild cards. This is a war. I don't feel good about this. An absolute war. Okay. I've seen at least six different formulations of this race. All right. We'll do the

Joaquin Phoenix Joker, Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Adam Driver, Marriage Story. Here we go. Taron Egerton, Rocketman, and Christian Bale, Ford versus Ferrari. Okay. We matched on four out of five. Okay. I've got Christian Bale, Ford versus Ferrari, Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory, Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Adam Driver, Marriage Story, and Joaquin Phoenix for Joker. Now, I think you're right to include Taron Egerton. Taron Egerton has been nominated for a SAG Award, a BAFTA, and he won the Golden Globe. Yes. And I have no evidence that he won't be nominated, despite the fact that I'm not a fan of this film. His performance is okay.

I don't think it's particularly great. I don't think he's actually a match for Elton John, his essence. He's worked hard on the campaign, and I get that. And I get that there's some admiration for this movie. The idea of him getting in over Antonio Banderas, who's never been nominated, Adam Sandler, who I think gives an absolutely iconic performance in Uncut Gems, and even Eddie Murphy, who I love, makes me want to tear my eyes out. That said, it is some Oscar shit to do that.

It's some Oscar shit. Again, my choices are, I went with the numbers and the evidence at hand as opposed to my feelings. I do have both Antonio Banderas and Eddie Murphy and Adam Sandler on my wildcards. And you could see- And no De Niro.

We haven't even said Robert De Niro's name. I don't think it's happening for De Niro. But the thing about Sandler, I just really think Uncut Gems got so screwed by the short awards season time because he, you know, he's been giving acceptance speeches this past week. Very, very charming and like roasting the Safdies. And that's the kind of thing where if voting were still open, a lot of people remember how much they like Adam Sandler. But that all happened after voting was closed. It did. Gosh.

It would be funny to watch Sandler and Banderas and Eddie Murphy, who all worked very hard to promote their movies that they gave great performances in, lose out to Edgerton. But, God. I mean, I'm choosing Banderas, but weirdly, I think you're right. And I've just let my emotions overwhelm

my choosing, my selections. Again, Taron Edgerton seems like a very lovely person. And he has, at this point, babysat most of the voting members of Hollywood's children. And that seems nice. He seems like a great guy.

It's nothing against him. But I'm just I think SAG, BAFTA and winning the Golden Globe it's all there. It's a very strong trifecta.

Best actress. Awkwafina, The Farewell. Okay. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women. Charlize Theron, Bombshell. Renee Zellweger, Judy. We have four out of five. the farewell okay scarlett johansson marriage story sersha ronan little women charlie's there in bombshell renee zellweger judy we have four out of five you got cynthia revo in there um no i went with lupita oh swapping with aquafina yes um interesting she's nominated for the second

awards yep i and i have just been clinging to those, I guess, though who knows why. And I think, you know, she has academy awareness. And I just kept going with this feeling that I don't feel—we all saw The Farewell and loved The Farewell. And obviously, like, Aquafina won, but that was so late. Golden Globes were so late in the voting window. I just don't know about the numbers. That was my issue. I just don't know about the numbers. That was my issue. I honestly don't know. You've got three films that came out

at completely different times of the year. You've got Us that came out in February. You've got The Farewell, which came out over the summer. And you've got Harriet, which came out right in the smack middle of the fall awards season. All three films have done pretty good box office.

Us did spectacular box office. All three women of color. The rest of our nominees, your potential nominees are all white. I've got Lupita and Cynthia Erivo both as wild cards. It's really hard to tell.

It's interesting that it's been a choice of that triangulation. There's no Alfre Woodard in the conversation at this point anymore for clemency, which is too bad. I don't know.

I don't feel super strongly about Awkwafina. I do feel better about her than I do about Xiaoxu Shen for The Farewell. I also think that her winning

the Globe mattered. I think her being on stage and giving a good speech mattered in this case. I don't think that was true of every person who won at the Globes, but this one feels like

a mayhem. Okay. That's my case. Should we go to Best Director? Yes. We're getting down to the end. We got two more. Bong Joon-ho,

Parasite, Sam Mendes, 1917, Martin Scorsese, The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Yes. We're getting down to the end. We got two more. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite. Sam Mendes, 1917. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. And Todd Phillips, Joker. I've got Taika Waititi here. Taika's my wild card.

My reasoning was that Taika is the Bradley Cooper Memorial DGA nomination for an actor-director that doesn't transfer. I can see that. I could see that. I could see that. And I just, I feel like I have Joker in enough of the below the line categories. DGAs don't always match with the Oscars. In fact, many times they don't.

I am matching the five for five. That could be foolhardy. This would mean in my formulation, no Greta Gerwig, no Noah Baumbach, no Todd Phillips, no women. Yeah. I don't, again, this is not the world we want to see.

Did you listen to Todd Phillips on Fresh Air? I did not. I thought he was really good. Okay. I thought he did a really good job. I was surprised by how much Terry Gross liked Joker. And she foregrounded virtually every question with, now Todd,

I really like your film. In an effort, I guess, to make him more comfortable because she wanted to ask him about a lot of the reactionary aspects of the film. I think you're insightful to choose him here

because he is, ever since the sort of blow up in the aftermath of the like we can't be funny anymore and he did talk to terry gross about this um like how wokeness canceled comedy or whatever that thing which he claimed was wildly out of context i would encourage people to check it out to determine for themselves how they feel about it he i thought very deftly carried himself into the next phase of the oscars Whether he actually gets recognized is hard to tell. We just don't know how the Academy is going to feel about Joker.

And it wouldn't shock me to see him there. This is a bummer for Greta, who I now think is completely underrated in terms of what she did with Little Women. Yes. I'm on the record of all of this. Yeah. Okay.

Last category. Here we go. Best Picture. Now, there can be as many as 10 nominees, as few as five. Essentially, what you need to get is about 5% of the vote to get a nomination here. So that's not a lot. So that's why every once in a while, Amor bursts through and gets nominated here. I don't think that there's ever been 10. I may be mistaken there. I think it's only been a maximum of nine.

Now, I've chosen 10 because I'm a coward. Oh, interesting. I have nine. But I also think that there is a lot of enthusiasm for a lot of films this year. And so it's more likely that we'll get 10 than any other year we've had. Because the five locks are like hyper locks, but there's a lot of strength around the other stuff. And in fact, it's the kind of year where there could have been 13 nominations and it would have been legitimate to me. You want to go first?

I thought I just went. You did, but I'm asking if you want to go first. I'll take it if you like. Yeah, no, I appreciate the offer. Thank you for letting women's voices be heard but go ahead this is this is an equal opportunity podcast and always has been best picture 1917 ford versus ferrari the irishman jojo rabbit joker knives out little women marriage story once upon a time in hollywood and parasite now I read a very convincing take on VanityFair.com that Uncut Gems will be one of the ten.

I thought a lot about this. I've been thinking so much about Phantom Threat as an Uncut Gems comparison. Here is the thing, and here is why I didn't do Uncut Gems. By the way, my list is the nine. I don't think Ford vs. Ferrari is going to be a kid, but otherwise, we're. My two weak spots are Ford vs. Ferrari and Knives Out. Continue. I should say that my wild card is actually Knives Out not making it.

I see. And it being eight. Oh. Yeah. Oh, that's very intriguing. But Uncut Gems, which I love and would be really fun to have at the Oscars

and also is obviously doing really well yes I want to see Josh, Benny and Adam doing crazy shit for the next month for sure 100%

but I kept thinking about Phantom Thread which was again also a Christmas release and was not at Golden Globes and was not I think it was nominated

for costume design at BAFTAs but we it was a foregone conclusion to us at least that it wasn't going to happen and then there it was nominated for costume design at BAFTAs. But it was a foregone conclusion to us, at least, that it wasn't going to happen. And then there it was in Best Picture, along with Daniel Day-Lewis, who I think everyone understood that he was definitely going to be nominated. The thing is, is that Phantom Thread was directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, who is one of the established great filmmakers of our generation, and also

stars Daniel Day-Lewis, who is really Oscar-y in a way that Adam Sandler, who is extremely talented and gives a tremendous performance, he's not Mr. Oscar, necessarily. Are we sure that Uncut Gems isn't the Safdies Boogie Nights and that this is the first in a long line of provocative, exciting, iterative thrills that are also very sort of like credible and art-arty.

I think that that's certainly possible, but I don't know whether that means that it gets a Best Picture nomination in this year. Probably not. Probably not.

And the other thing I was just thinking about in terms of, the Phantom Thread in 2017 was like the internet's favorite, you know? And the thing is that like Parasite is kind of already taking that and has been riding that wave and a lot of that energy. And the fun thing about this year is that there are like a lot of internet favorites. There are a lot of movies on this list that we really like. So it just means that there's, I think, part of what pushed Phantom Thread was dissatisfaction, say, with Three Billboards as a frontrunner. I think there's also a couple of other things to consider there.

One, obviously, the older Academy is not intimidated by a period piece about a designer. Obviously, Daniel Day-Lewis, as you said, brings a sort of credibility, a kind of high-class essence that maybe Adam Sandler doesn't deliver to viewers. The Academy, even from two years ago, has changed. There's new people in there. It's possible that it's a little bit more hip. Now, Uncut Gems is very New York. It's not very L.A.

So that's probably also in the mix. The Safdies and Adam were at the New York Film Critics Circle dinner this week. And that really felt like probably their Oscars in a lot of ways. But just to be clear, we matched on eight. Mm-hmm. And I included Ford versus Ferrari in Knives Out and you did not include either. No, I included in Knives Out.

Oh, you did include Knives Out. Yeah. So my pick is nine. So we matched on nine out of ten. I see. Nine out of ten. But we had to pick a wild card. And my wild card is not the addition of a film.

My wild card is that Knives Out won't make it. Oh, I see. Oh, I didn't even know we could do that. Well, I'm just, you know, inventing rules and living life as it comes. So here's what this would mean based on what we've just discussed. Set aside the Ford versus Ferrari conversation, which we should have shortly. On the outside looking in, Uncut Gems, The Farewell, Bombshell, The Two Popes. I remember people in August at Telluride telling me The Two Popes would win.

Yeah. Would win. Yeah. In this formulation, Netflix only gets two nominations. There's no Eddie Murphy here. There's no Jonathan Pryce here. There may or may not be an Anthony Hopkins here, based on what we're talking about. Is this bad for Netflix, if it shakes out this way?

Because I don't think Marriage Story or The Irishman are necessarily frontrunners either. They're in contention as sort of like leading contenders. Yeah. Is it bad? I don't know. I think having a tremendous number of nominations for Irishman and Marriage Story should be considered positive for them. But they definitely peaked a bit early, maybe. They did.

In awards season. That's kind of, that's what happened. That was essentially my takeaway at the Globes when they only had one win for Laura Dern. There was a little bit of like, did they peak here? And I don't know what to do about that. In many ways, I thought that they were very smart to get their campaign started very early, to start building narrative around Noah Baumbach very early. Right.

For the Irishman to be a film of concern for years. I think also it just, the expectations got a bit weird because they came out and were like, we're going to have, what, four movies at the Oscars? That's how they started the season because at some point we all... Dolomite is my name. Yeah, Dolomite is my name. We were going to maybe take the king seriously as an Oscar contender for a minute until we didn't.

When you go for world domination, then suddenly getting what, like 20 Oscar nominations, which I think somewhere in that level is what you and I have on the table for them, is considered a disappointment. But that seems kind of – that's just bad expectations management.

I agree. So let's talk about Ford versus Ferrari here a little bit. Okay. I've been turning this idea over in my mind a little bit. And for whatever reason, maybe it's because of the year I was born or the time in which I became aware of these things, the way I would look at the box office rankings in Entertainment Weekly as a teenager, $100 million as a threshold for box office still feels significant to me, especially when you're talking about original stories. There have only been a few original stories that have crossed the

$100 million threshold this year. Among them, of course, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. There's a big news about how Knives Out is on pace to even outperform Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at the box office internationally, which is just incredible. Ford versus Ferrari. And I think Us is the only other one. The Upside is there, but that's a remake of a French film. Joker, obviously, is based on previously existing property. Little Women is based on previously existing property. You may get over 100 at some point. For the most part, in terms of purely original stories, there's only about four or five, all of which are going to be recognized here. Why didn't the Ford versus Ferrari thing really, truly, deeply happen? That's such a good question. You know,

some of it is that I think that it is a, it's a, and this is unfair to Ford vs. Safari, which I think is really well made and was very entertaining, but it was a dad movie before it came out the gate. And thus hasn't been in the prestige conversation the way, say, The Irishman or even Little Women has been because of the elements of what their movie is about and how it's made. That is my best explanation is a bunch of people just being like, you know, my dad's going to be really into that. Yeah, it has a lot in common with a lot of the other nominees. It has the incredible production design and editing grace and costumes of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It has the historical element that The Irishman has. It has this kind of like lavish sense of like visionary ownership that a movie like Joker has. Like it has a lot in common with all these things. It has movie stars like Little Women does or Marriage Story or The Irishman. It shares a lot with a lot of these movies.

I think it does. But each of those movies that you mentioned is doing something new. Even The Irishman, which is filled with a bunch of guys playing in some ways the same role that they have been playing for 30, 40 years now. It's definitely a new way of telling that story, both in terms of the story itself and its morals, but also where it's been presented and how long it is, etc. And Ford vs. Ferrari had a really traditionally good feel to it. Does that make any sense to you?

It was familiar. And I think that that is an unfair way of describing what is a really well-made and technically accomplished movie. But you were like, oh, it's that they don't make them like they used to anymore movies. I wonder if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has kind of blotted it out because it also has that kind of reputation in a good way, which is like this is about a lost time made by a master craftsman reflecting on something in a more hopeful way. Also turning it on its head in a lot of ways. True, true. Which Ford vs. Ferrari, for all of its pleasures, is not really updating the basic narrative of guys want to do something and some friendship is made along the

way. I'm going to put you on the spot. Yeah. What's winning best picture? Once Upon a Time. So I agree. Preferential balloting, baby! Yeah. So we didn't predict a bunch of the categories here, but according to what I would have predicted, if we did everything, it's going to have 11 nominations, which is a lot. It's not the most ever. It's not even close. But that's a lot for a movie like this. Now, that may not be true. We may not see it in production design.

We may not see it in costume design, but I think we will. And usually that portends a win. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood did win Best Musical or Comedy but it has not, among the critics groups, it has not really won Best Picture kind of anywhere. The Academy is different. Tarantino obviously on our network and elsewhere has been has been hoofing.

He's been out there talking about his work and his career and movies and why he loves them. Would that be a satisfying conclusion to this race? Yes, don't you think? I think so, yeah. I mean, I love that movie. We really love this satisfying conclusion to this race? Yes. Don't you think? I think so, yeah. I mean, I love that movie. We really love this movie.

Yeah, I love it. I'm still not convinced a weird parasite thing isn't going to happen. But would you be mad if a weird parasite thing happened? No, I'd be delighted. It's my second favorite movie of the year. Let's change the word from weird to exciting. I'd like to go back into my personal archives. Oh, boy.

Of every single movie year since I've been alive and see how frequently my favorite movie and my second favorite movie are running one and two at the Oscars for Best Picture. It's probably never happened. I can't imagine. I can't think of any time that it's happened. As I said, when we put together our best movies of the of decade and all of our lists they never correspond to to best picture oscars to winners anyway sometimes they're nominated so now that we've said that out loud yeah it's more than likely perhaps even assured that 1917 will win best picture and todd phillips will win for best director yeah you feeling good you you were

nervous you had some anxiety i think we did okay you know it's done it's out in the world there's no regrets you know that's where i am until i have so many regrets on monday morning what what what kind of results would you need across these categories to feel like you've done a good job well getting anything wrong is a failure. So I don't know. You picked 15 categories. If I did 12? 12 fully correct? Yeah. You're doing the globes thing again.

You need to get 12 fully correct? That's fucking hard. Oh, fully correct. I guess I didn't think about it in terms of nominations. Okay. So 15 times 5 is 75. That's correct. Wow.

Math. So that would mean if I get 65, right? That's more than what you just said. I guess that's true. I don't know, Sean. Have standards, you know, for yourself and for others. You think you're going to get, you'll feel good if you get 65, correct? You asked me when I would feel good, when I would feel like I got it right.

And that is the honest answer. Anything less and I'm just reaching around in the dark. Listen, if you get 65 correct, we're going to Morongo Casino immediately. Okay? We're live Oscars podcast from the blackjack table with Amanda Dobbins. You're asking me about my feelings and I'm answering honestly in front of a microphone. That is how I evaluate success. For this and for all other walks of life, it's not fun being me.

Next time you hear from us, we'll be evaluating our success in real time, early on Monday morning after the Oscar nominations are announced. We'll be able to compare and contrast our successes and our failures and probably whine a little bit about what we didn't get that we wanted. You ready, Amanda? Yes. We'll see you then. Delighted to be joined by Destin Daniel Cretton. Destin, thanks for being here. Yeah, great to be here. Thanks for having me. Destin, my first question for you is, when did you become aware of Bryan Stevenson, the person? I was introduced to him through his book, Just Mercy, which I read at a coffee shop here in LA

called the Bourgeois Pig, which is a very dark coffee shop. Like they keep the lights really low, which is good because I was bawling my eyes out throughout the reading of the book. And you would, I mean, what really surprised me about it was I was expecting it to be a downer, which it is. It introduced me to some very bleak facts about the system of justice that we have here in our country. I wasn't expecting to turn the last page and be filled with so much hope and energy and inspiration to want to do something to help or be involved. And so I feel incredibly lucky to have been able to participate in helping Brian get the story out through the medium of film.

Did it seem cinematic when you were reading the book? Were you seeing it as a movie in any way? Very much so. I mean, Brian is a lawyer, but he really is a storyteller. And even within the courtroom, what he is doing on a daily basis is telling stories and he's he's telling he's telling the stories of of his clients who and and this is very much a technique of cinema you you start with the stereotype you start with the mugshot or the crime or the or the character that you that an audience thinks yeah i know that person um and that's what brian starts with in the courtroom but then he starts peeling off the or the character that an audience thinks, yeah, I know that person.

And that's what Brian starts with in the courtroom, but then he starts peeling off the layers of the onion so that you get the full context of that character. And by the end of it, they become much more difficult to judge in the way that you were at the start. And that's what he does repeatedly throughout his book. Every character starts with somebody that you think you know or that you think, oh, they did that?

Then maybe I do believe in capital punishment. But by the end of every chapter, you've really come to know that person in so many different ways that they become much more difficult to judge. What's more appealing about a story like this for you as a filmmaker? Is it kind of the ideas and the philosophy and what Stevenson stands for? Or is it being able to spotlight the people and tell those specific stories? Both. Brian Stevenson stands for the people. And I do think that his philosophy is really woven into the work that he does.

And the work that he does is just, he works with the most vulnerable people in our society every single day. Of course, telling a story through film, character is everything. And the characters in Bryan Stevenson's book and the way that he paints them, they just felt so relatable to me. I wasn't expecting to laugh as much as I did while reading Just Mercy, but these characters were so vibrant and had such a good sense of humor.

I mean, humor is often a tool that's used, a survival tool that's used to get through tragic situations. And these characters were using that extremely well. And by the end of it, I felt like they were my friends. And I hope there's an element of that in the movie for people as well. Was it a difficult to to walk the line of um you know what to what to shift uh typically you're playing with timeline when you're when you're um creating a narrative that's based on a true story um and with with this, because we're working so closely with Brian, he was rightly so very particular about getting certain things right. The characters were non-negotiable. The legal process was non-negotiable. negotiable there. But he is a storyteller, so there were certain elements of just shifting time

or condensing time that we were able to do that were necessary to the narrative process. But yeah, it was challenging, but usually those constraints, you know, they're really kind of frustrating at first, but in the end, they force you to come up with something maybe more interesting than you would have just gone to if you could have made it up. Yeah, it's interesting. I feel like there are a few movies and theaters right now that have been, that are about real life events, but there have been some dramatized aspects that have been controversial for people. Is it, when you say it's challenging to almost stick to the letter of the law quite specifically, like what is that, how does that come into play? Is it you saying, well, wouldn't it be easier for us to tell this story if we removed this person from the story or we added a new character that helped us understood it more? And he would say, no, it's actually, it has to be this way because this is how, this is what's real and these are the consequences. Yeah. I mean,

he wanted to create something that lawyers or, and did we we wanted to create something that lawyers who work in this field who know who know the the process of litigation that that's happening um would not roll their eyes at it um but also something that's true to the experience of of his clients who he cares deeply about and so all all of that morally we felt obligated to um you know one one one example of kind of a of a sort of fudge that we did was um we we and instead of in in real life when a decision was, a specific decision was sent to him, it was actually just sent via fax. And the judge's decision was just sent to them and they read it, which isn't very cinematic. So we talked to Brian and said, does it ever happen in a courtroom where the where you come back for the decision made and he said yeah that does happen it didn't happen in this

situation but if he did that it wouldn't be believable in it and then it created more of a more of a dramatic scene but the dialogue of what the judge was actually saying was verbatim what was sent to him in the documents that we had. I love a courtroom drama. I don't know if that's a kind of movie you like, if that's something that you're drawn to when you're thinking about making stories. Because your films prior to this aren't as conventional as something as a courtroom drama. They have a more unique shape, but there are some parts of this movie that feel familiar, even though you're doing it in a new way about new ideas. Were you looking at movies like that

to kind of capture the essence of a great courtroom drama? Yeah, I mean, we actually watched, I think, all of them. And broke them down. And my Angela Lanham, who i co-wrote this with um really just went beat by beat and broke down all the all the great courtroom dramas to see you know where the turns were what the act one turn was what the midpoint was when new characters were brought in and just so we we can understand the structure um and also the question as to why they're all very long, including our movie, we realized, like, oh, yeah,

it's hard to make a courtroom drama that's under 2 hours and 15 minutes. But also, you know, we realized that this story is ultimately different from the starting point because we're not talking about a trial. The trial actually happens well before the movie starts. somebody really piece a case together, he's actually looking at a lot of the information up front and spending the movie trying to convince a system that is in power that they did something wrong, that they made a mistake. And that's kind of the point of the movie. One of the big points of the movie and Bryan Stevenson's message is how quickly somebody can be tried over a day. A lot of times it's over a few hours of a day and put on death row and sentenced to death. And how long it takes for the process of just getting that system and the people in power

to admit that they made a mistake, even when the evidence is so clearly pointing in that direction. I feel like the movie really rises with the performances, especially the performances of the men who are on death row in the movie. How did you go about casting the movie? Because there's some big shiny stars and then not everybody, but not everybody is a big shiny star. So how did you go about finding that cast?

Carmen Cuba, who is our casting director, we, yeah, I mean, it's hard to map out exactly how you cast something well in this in this instance uh michael b jordan came on first um and he came on both as a producer and and uh an actor um it was really uh his his first idea was to go out to Jamie Foxx because they've known each other for a long time. And we knew that they were going to be having a lot of scenes together. And when two actors naturally have a backstory and chemistry, that's just half the battle is just trying to create that. So the fact that they had that going in was a huge plus for us.

Um, Brie, I, I sent the book to Brie even before, before she was even considering doing the role. And she was just personally so connected to the subject and the book really moved her. And so she,

she really wanted to be a part of it just to help tell the story in any way um and then all i mean our our cast is pretty incredible everybody is just so on point um but that the the rest was really working with carmen to to find the right people um o'shea jackson actually came in and read for Anthony Ray Hinton, and he showed a side of himself that I'd never seen before. And I'm really excited for people to see that side of him. Rob Morgan was so connected to the story of Herbert Richardson, a veteran from Vietnam who is on death row. And he just, he just really connected with that character in a extraordinary way and, and did his own research into like the stutter and the PTSD. And, and Tim Blake Nelson is, I mean, he's incredible.

He's one of my favorite actors. And he just really dedicated himself to getting Ralph Myers right. Because Ralph Myers could have easily been a cliche. And Tim Blake Nelson watched all the videos of the real Ralph Myers and really honed in on a very precise and interesting character. I love the Rob Morgan performance a lot. I think he's incredible in the film. I've never really seen a movie shot, this sort of solitary, confined, Death Row, I guess, shot quite that way. How did you guys talk about kind of like visualizing and telling a prison story? But it doesn't feel like a lot of prison stories to me. I'm not sure quite how to communicate what I'm saying in that respect.

But how do you imagine shooting something and humanizing it in the way that you did? I mean, we did feel like it was really important to let people see the space that they are living in. So the first time that you walk onto death row is with Walter McMillan as he makes his way back to his cell. And as soon as you pop into his cell, which is roughly 10 feet by 5 feet, I believe. And what was really actually very moving to me was I did an interview with the real Anthony Ray Hinton, who is played by O'Shea Jackson, and he was on death row for 30 years for a crime he didn't commit know what the color of their skin was because they were constantly having conversations shouting between first floor and the second floor. And he said there was, death row was so loud because everybody was constantly talking to each other, but just through walls and through bars. And that was something that we really wanted to capture was the relationship between these three inmates. So we actually, my DP, Brett Pollack, who I've worked on everything with, we set up three separate cameras on each of our actors and ran them simultaneously so that we could capture all

of their interaction. So when you're watching it, it almost feels just like a regular dialogue scene and you almost forget that they're not looking at each other. When we shot it, they were able to do the scene and then a lot of times they would improvise for sometimes five, ten minutes, and then they'd come back. One person would just naturally start the first dialogue of the scene, and they'd comb through it again, and it would get a little looser. And it was pretty fascinating to watch. Yeah, it works really well. It creates essentially a sense of community, which I'd never really seen in that specific way. Michael B. Jordan, why did he want to produce the movie, and what did he do with Brian to kind of make the performance work? I mean, like all of us, we were all drawn to this because of the book

and because of just really believing in Brian Stevenson's message and the work that he's doing. I think it's extraordinary for me, and I think it's extraordinary for an actor to be able to tell the story of a living person who you can go and study and talk to and find out exactly how things were at the time that our story takes place. And it was kind of funny when we first went to EJI, the Equal Justice Initiative in Montgomery, Alabama, with Michael B.

Because Michael B. Jordan was recently coming off of Black Panther and Creed II, and so he was pretty ripped. And so we were like, okay, you got to just kind of tone down a little bit to get to a believable level that you're a lawyer. But then when we went out to Montgomery and met with Brian Stevenson, they were kind of both just like walking together. And I was filming from the back and I was like, Brian Stevenson is actually a little more ripped than Michael B. Jordan. But it is true. Brian, he gets up at four every morning and works out. So he actually didn't have to lose his, so Michael B. didn't have to lose his killmonger body in order to play the role realistically. But that time with Brian was pretty instrumental for everybody. And Michael Bue, you know, he gave us a tour of the place that he worked, gave us the tour of the museum that they've created there

that really does kind of brilliantly map out the connection between slavery and mass incarceration. And then we were able to just, Michael Bue was able to spend time with him just in his office and talking to him about the specifics of what the strategy is in a courtroom, where to stand,

the tone of voice you use when you're a young black lawyer speaking to a white judge um and a lot of that conversation did inform this performance of restraint that michael b knew was was going to be very found out that was going to be very important to playing brian stevenson because so much of his work is not about his own emotion but about how he is controlling it in in the presence of the people who are in power because he he repeated repeatedly told us that him losing himself and getting angry, even though he felt like he wanted to so many times, actually had a very real ripple effect that would ultimately land on his clients in a negative way. So watching Michael B. struggle with his emotions and keeping them in check actually was, I found to be a very moving thing to see.

The kinds of films that you make, you're obviously, you're on the precipice of a big new project, but I feel like a dramas like this, there's a lot of conversation about the difficulty of getting movies like this made in 2019. Was it, this a difficult story to kind of get to the screen in any way? Because it is, it's a studio film with movie stars, and it feels kind of old-fashioned in that way, even if we haven't seen this exact story before. Was it hard to get this going? Yeah, every movie's hard.

We had a lot going for us with this. We have Gil Netter, a really great producer from the start, who we had a great book that everybody everyone responded to um and we had michael b jordan who everybody responds to um and and then when when warner brothers came on board um it was for all the right reasons um our our exec there nija and sheila i mean all the way all the way up the chain um were so personally passionate about this project and getting it made that they we just felt really really supported throughout the entire process was it a significantly bigger production than your last two films?

Significantly not than my Glass Castle was. It wasn't significantly bigger than Glass Castle. It was significantly bigger than Short Term 12 on the site about the cast and the making of the film and you know it has even though the story is quite different it has a kind of like dazed and confused 2.0 like look at all these incredible people we discovered quality to it did you guys have a sense of that when you were making it that you were like oh yeah and Keith will go on to do this and Rami will go on to do this or is it just like

these are the great actors we found and hopefully everything works out for them? Yes it was that yeah i mean we were we were all when people talk about like what's it feel like to discover but i'm like i'm not i wasn't like spielberg i was like a nobody so there was no disc like we were all figuring it out together that was just our team and we're we're all still friends and it was like i'm i could not be happier for for uh all of them i mean it's it's pretty incredible that at the time we were shooting it was obvious the talent that was there but you know you you you never know what the industry is going to latch on to or not and And I was really hoping, you know, specifically for Keith, who, you know, Keith crashed on my couch for like six months

after Short Term 12 while he was starting to audition. And I was just really, I mean, he is such an extraordinary talent in every way and an extraordinary human. I was really hoping for exactly what is happening to happen, and I could not be more excited for all of them. I feel like, tell me if I'm off-basis, I'm going to do a read on something. I feel like you and Coogler and Michael B. Jordan and Bree, there is a kind of community of people. It seems like you and kugler and michael b jordan and brie and this there is a kind of community of people seems like you guys are all friends you find ways to work together it seems like you've all communicated about your projects is there is that am i just imagining a

kind of like a cohort of people that are that are all sort of intertwined in some way i i mean I mean, Kugler, Ryan is, yeah, we became friends when Short Term was on the circuit and Fruitvale was. uh, as a filmmaker and as a person who I think finds the right balance between the craziness and real life and things that matter. Um, but yeah, I mean, we, we all, we all respect each other and it's,

uh, it was cool having Michael B and Bree on set. Um, and talking about potentially one day figuring out some way to have all of us do something together at one point, which would be really cool. I think that's sort of what I was picturing. I'm like, is there a world in which all of these people do something together? Did you seek advice? It'd also be cool to get Rachel Morrison and Brett Pollack.

Yeah. But yeah, maybe there's a, maybe there's like a show that we could all collaborate on at some point. Who knows? Okay. Loop me in if you do that. Um, did you seek advice from Kugler about how to do the next thing?

Always. Yeah. Yeah. He was one of my, one of my first calls. How do you prepare for something like this? You don't have to tell me about what happens in the movie. I just want to know what,

what life is like before starting a huge production like Shang-Chi. I don't really know how to prepare for it. I think you're thrown in, thank goodness, with a lot of really great people. And a lot of it feels like film school. You're just learning new things every single day and doing everything you can to make the best movie possible. Is there anything you took from Just Mercy that you're bringing to this? Everything still comes down to an actor's face in a frame and what the performance is. So that's something that I learn more about every

single movie that I make. Every actor is different and the way to an authentic performance is always different. So yeah, I take something from every movie that I've ever made. It'd take a lot. How much of yourself do you put into the sort of unholy trinity of box office criticism and awards? Because I feel like your film, you know, those will be significant aspects when the movie is released. Do you think about those three things when you are working on a project? When I'm working on a, I mean, I try not to um those are the things that make you go crazy uh and so it's probably the the last thing that i should be thinking about so it's a thing that i try not to think about what about right now um right now i'm this moment, not thinking about it at all. I won't force you to do so then.

Do you have other things that you're working on, even though you have this massive project? Do you have a bucket list of kinds of films that you want to make? I do. Yeah. want to continue to make movies that speak to um that speak to people that maybe might not have seen themselves or their their experiences up on screen before um and i'm always looking for ways to do that for me growing up on on maui um going to the movie theater was a really big deal to me. It introduced me to worlds that I did not experience. Spielberg movies or movies that anyone on the mainland would consider normal, like a movie about high schoolers who get to stay home for snow day is something that was so foreign to me. But what it did was show me that there are other people on this planet who are experiencing emotions and experiences

and relationships with their parents that I was experiencing. And it helped me to not feel as alone in the world. And so any way that I can do that through storytelling, those are the things that I gravitate towards. What were some of the movies that activated your imagination when you were a kid? which I was young enough to think was all real, that somehow they really could shrink someone down and put them into a human body to fly around in a little spaceship. Are you saying we can't do that?

Well, I think now it is real, isn't it? Some version of it. Dustin, we end every episode of this show by asking filmmakers what's the last great thing they've seen have you been able to see very many movies of late? the last great thing

that I have seen was I mean this was a plane movie great and it's the remake of Aladdin yeah it's probably best seen was a plane movie. Great. And it's the remake of Aladdin. Yeah, it's probably best seen on a plane. And I loved Will Smith in that movie.

Yeah, what did you like? He was cracking me up. That's actually the last movie that I saw. I was on the way out to Sydney, Australia. And I went into that movie thinking I was going to hate it. But man, Will Smith, I was pretty stoked on him. The power of movie stars. Congrats on Just Mercy.

Thanks for doing this, Esten. Thank you.