The Big Picture - The 2019 Oscar Narratives, Explained | The Oscars Show (Ep. 129)

Episode Date: February 20, 2019

A host of Ringer staffers join Sean and Amanda to break down the narratives that have emerged in the lead-up to the 2019 Oscars. Why does Netflix want an Oscar so badly? What happened to our beloved ���A Star Is Born'? Plus, we make the case for each Best Picture nominee, do our best to see into the future and predict next year’s Oscars, and more. To see this podcast in video form, go to The Ringer’s YouTube page! Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Guests: Mallory Rubin, Jason Concepcion, Chris Ryan, Alison Herman, Micah Peters, Kate Halliwell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of The Big Picture is brought to you by Bud Light. Did you know not all alcohol products are required to list their ingredients? That was news to me. Bud Light is changing the game. They believe that we deserve to know our beer's ingredients, so they put an ingredients label right on their packaging. Bud Light, brewed with hops, barley, water, and rice. No corn syrup, no preservatives, and no artificial flavors.

Find out what ingredients are in your beer. Bud Light. Enjoy responsibly. AB Bud Light Beer, St. Louis, Missouri. I'm Sean Fennessy. And I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is The Big Picture, a conversation show about the Oscars. Amanda, this is a bonus episode of The Oscars Show. Just yesterday, we came to you with a virtually 90-minute long episode in which we predicted every race. We talked about the telecast. You'd think we'd be done giving you Oscars content. Lo and behold, we are back. We recorded a series of roundtables. What did we talk about in these roundtables this

week? We talked about our favorite film, A Star is Born. Yes, truly, always. Can't forget that one. We talked about some performances and films that were maybe overlooked this year and might have a future Oscar win 10 or 20 years down the road. We talked about what might be at the Oscars next year. Yes. We talked a little bit about how we talk about the Oscars and what we talk about when we talk about the Oscars and specifically outrage culture surrounding the Oscars. We talked a little bit about Netflix too. Why does Netflix want an Oscar? We tried to answer

that question. We were joined by a few of our colleagues. Yes. Chris Ryan, you may have heard of him, host of your favorite podcast, The Watch. We were also joined by Alison Herman, our television critic and general pop culture extraordinaire thinker. We were joined by Micah Peters. We were joined by Jason Concepcion and Mallory Rubin. They are the co-hosts of Binge Mode, of course. Yes. And we were joined by Kate Halliwell. And we united, we Voltroned to try to get a better sense of not just what's going to happen this weekend,

but why these things happen in general. And it was a couple of series of really good conversations. So if you listen now, you'll hear five or six of those right before you get into the Oscars on February 24th. And then on February 24th, what happens? The Oscars. Yeah. And then what do we do? Then we yell. Just to be as succinct as possible. They will do an awards show and it will not be three hours

long. It will be longer. So I will be angry. And then inevitably something will go wrong. And even if nothing goes wrong and it's exactly what we expect, we will be surly because it was what we expected. And there was no surprises because you know what? We like the audience and really like any movie going public are difficult to please. It's very true. Hopefully this episode pleases you in a way that the Oscars never can. Please enjoy this Oscar Narratives bonus episode. Guys, we're here to talk about the Oscars, primarily one of our favorite movies of the year that is also maybe not going to do very well at the Oscars. I'm talking, of course, about A Star is Born, which has eight nominations,

which is a lot the second most of any film that is nominated here. But for some reason, it seems like A Star Is Born is not the frontrunner, not even close to the frontrunner in this campaign. If we go back to October, there were very few films that were in the race. A Star Is Born arrived, instantaneous hit, instant masterpiece, A-plus cinema score from fans. And then what happened?

Do you want to share your own predictions from October about A Star Is Born while we're doing it? Sure. I am a fool. Fine. I publicly stated that I felt like A Star Is Born had a significant chance to go five for five in the big five categories, something that has happened only twice before and not since Silence of the Lambs. So five for five, of course, is best picture, best director, best actor, best actress, and best screenplay.

Viggo Mortensen was like, hold my beer. Truly. He came through along with Rami Malek and Bohemian Rhapsody, and Roma later premiered on Netflix, and we find ourselves in a place where it just seems like A Star is Born might not win anything. And we've been flabbergasted by this. Why did this happen? There's an Oscars narrative way to do it, where you're talking about the order in which things came out in, and whether or not they captivated a certain awards narrative. But then there's just like, I do have like a question about A Star is Born that I had even when I saw it in October, which is, is this movie too depressing?

And it's not like the favorite fills me with the spirit of humanity and that like I just fully believe in our power to like overcome all obstacles after seeing that movie. But for a favorite like this, like A Star is Born, I do wonder whether the ultimate feeling people leave that movie with is devastation. And that's not like Roma. Roma, you leave kind of feeling like we're all in this together despite whatever class differences there might be. And I know it's been criticized for that, but I've been trying to get at this for a while and I keep coming back to that. I will say I was surprised by the number of people who were surprised by the ending of Star is Born because it is the fourth version of this movie. It's canon.

The narrative is the same. It was pretty obvious what was going to happen without having seen the movie. And also, it's very obvious what's going to happen in the movie about an hour in. But so many people were surprised that, I agree with you, it seems like people weren't really prepared. They didn't know that this was coming and they were affected by it. But this isn't the Hallmark Channel Awards. I mean, it's the Oscars. Like, tragedy is a part of major Best Picture winners all the time.

You may recall, in fact, just last year, that fish alien was murdered at the end of The Shape of Water. I literally didn't remember how it happened. So it's not like this is the, it would be the most shocking thing to learn and this is of course a spoiler and if you do not want a Star is Born

spoiled for you, I have no idea why you're watching this video but Jackson Maine of course takes his own life and I don't know, I mean I think that that's an interesting theory

and maybe in this moment people want to feel good. That's certainly something we've heard about. Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody to some extent rising this year.

I don't know, Kate, what do you think it is? What do you think makes this not the front runner? You know, I didn't know the ending going in. I'm a young person who hasn't seen the other versions. Kate, welcome. You represent, you know, the larger public. Yeah, and I didn't walk out of the theater devastated. I was like, this movie was great.

That first hour ripped. The songs were amazing, and I wanted to win everything. So, I mean, maybe other people had a different reaction, but I don't know. My theory, I guess, and I think this is just, like, the larger conversation, is that, like, Bradley Cooper kind of bungled the campaign early on, and now is trying to fix that too late.

Yeah, let's talk about that. So Bradley Cooper, of course, when the movie came out, did the traditional round of press. There were a couple of feature stories about him. He did some radio interviews, some podcast interviews. And he sort of trotted out the same two or three stories over and over again. And he kind of held the line at the way that he was going to talk about this movie. And he resisted journalist demand to kind of give all of himself.

Yes. What was it about this story and your life that drew, you know, what was the attraction to it? Right, Yes. Which it's important to note, Bradley Cooper has a long history of doing exactly this. He has never been comfortable with the press and never been comfortable selling himself. Like any true great Philadelphian. He definitely, it felt as if he was protecting something. And there was, you know, specifically a New York Times Magazine feature about him that sort of used his withholding nature as the point of the story that identified that there was something about how Bradley Cooper hates this. And it's possible that that turned people off to this

movie. I'm a little dubious of that. I think that there are some other factors in play, but I don't know. Did that strike you as what was really going on here? Yeah, I agree with Kate. And it took me a long time to get to this realization, I think, just because I felt so personally attacked by the lack of success of Star Is Born. But something seems to have clicked with Bradley Cooper, because in the last few weeks, after not winning anything at the Golden Globes, and right before nominations were announced, he showed up in Vegas with Lady Gaga to sing

Shallow live. Incredible. And then after he was snubbed for best director, he went on Oprah and talked to Oprah about how sad he felt. And he was like, I felt like I didn't do my job. And so at some point it clicked for him, I think, that he needs to be doing the Oscar circuit. You know, it is a circuit. It is about campaigning and glad handing and kissing babies and voters and talking about how much it means to you. That's why Glenn Close is going to win this year, for example.

And he refused to do that. And I do think it's affected it. I think he also has a Duke problem. I think the fact that this was the number one seed so early made it the team to knock off. You know what I mean? And then going into this, even though obviously within our bubble,

we have a ton of affection for this movie and probably a deeper kind of emotional attachment to it than maybe any of the other Best Picture nominees. I think that it was always there to lose for them rather than to win. So the first words you see in the trailer are filmed by Bradley Cooper. It's like they were presenting this

as a masterwork by an auteur early on, like in September or July, whenever that trailer first came out. And I just wonder whether that's too long to defend your ground. You've got to kind of have a story where you're like, nobody saw Green Book coming, and here it is. Starsborne was like, we start on the top of the mountaintop, and all you can do is drag us down.

So Amanda, you identified the course correction that Bradley Cooper is trying to orchestrate right now. We're only a few weeks away from the Oscars. The voting has just started. Is there any chance that February 24th comes and Bradley Cooper strides upon that stage, raises the Academy Award, beside his friend Todd Phillips, who also produced this movie, and says, we did it, Ma, top of the world? Or no?

I don't think so. I agree. And I don't want to, part of it is not wanting to get my hopes up because they have been crushed for months now. We've been doing a whole podcast and every week it's just like, no, no.

The other thing. This did happen once just like, no, no. The other thing... This did happen once before though, we should say. Argo famously did not get the Best Director nomination and won some awards, but not every award and was not necessarily the prohibitive favorite a few years ago. Ben Affleck, of course, did not get nominated for Best Director, nor did Bradley Cooper. And then Argo won. So it could happen. It could. Here's the other source of concern for me. And I think one of the reasons we thought, in addition to it being a wonderful movie, but we thought it was going to be a favorite in part because there is this old saw about Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood. And this is technically about a musician, but it is about fame and it is in a long Hollywood tradition. And we thought, oh, sure. Yeah, you know, it's a shoo-in.

And for a lot of different reasons, some of which are not my favorite, the argument about Hollywood this year has shifted away from like the content of the movie into how the movies are made and who is voting for them and what they're voting for. And I kind of think like the old traditional Hollywood voters have found themselves more in the green book camp and defending a traditional Oscar Hollywood movie by a green book than by A Star is Born. And so I just think that those votes will go somewhere else. Chris, let me pitch a hypothetical to you. A Star is Bornins. How close are you to the reaction you had when the Eagles won the Super Bowl? Are you running around the room screaming, fuck Green Book and pouring

champagne down your throat? I think that I would be satisfied. I think I would be satisfied with Stars Born Winning. But that's the problem. He's just, he's like, it would be fine. You wouldn't be pumped. No one who's voting is pumped. That's the problem right there. You're part of the problem. I am part of the problem. I guess I am part of the problem. I don't have a vote.

Okay, so let me throw, I don't want to get too far off. I would be more happy, more emotional, more excited if Black Panther won. Now, not necessarily because I think Black Panther is a better movie than Star is Born. I think it's apples and oranges. I just think that if you're talking about what it means, I would be more into that. I would be more emotional Super Bowl if Black Panther won. Guys, I can vividly recall a conversation we were having a year ago in this very setup about a movie that we knew was going to be nominated for Best Picture.

That movie, of course, was Black Panther. And by God, we were right. It is nominated for Best Picture. We are just geniuses. We're the real winners of Black Panther. Yes, truly. Financially, emotionally, creatively, we did it. So congrats to us.

One year later, I don't feel quite as strongly about any of the movies that we're going to be seeing at this ceremony next year. It's not quite as clear, at least in February, what's going to happen. But I thought we should talk a little bit about what we see in all these platforms, these emerging spaces for new movies. Chris, what's the movie on the list this year, the calendar, that jumps out to you as clearly going to be there next February? I think that Star Wars Episode IX will get nominated for Best Picture.

Wow! Because I think this is going to be a return of the king situation. I think this is going to be a thank you note to Disney and the Star Wars Lucasfilm family of thank you for all you've done for the movies over the last few decades. You've reinvigorated the theater-going experience in the face of all these incursions from home entertainment, from Netflix, from everything else.

This is the crowning achievement of Hollywood moviemaking in the last 40 years. And this is the last film in this saga. It'll be kind of fractured after that because you've got some of it is going to be on Disney+. They don't really have a plan. They have a bunch of trilogies from Rian Johnson and Benioff and Weiss in the works, but nobody knows when those are going to get released. And I think this is the time to celebrate it. And I think a lot of people would watch the Oscars if they did it. I agree with this, but I have a follow-up question. Let's do it. What about popular Oscar? And how does that affect Star Wars? Because there are a bunch in the mix where you could say, Us could probably land a Best Picture nomination. Jordan Peele's new movie. Yes. Kate, you wanted to submit one.

Yeah, The Lion King. Yes. Comes out in July. Jon Favreau's version. Beyonce, Donald Glover. It's going to be big. But is it going to be Best Picture big or is it going to be Oscar big? There's also a new Toy Story movie.

Right. Which technically, not technically, but in past years, it could have certainly been in the Best Picture conversation, but will it be shunted to popular? It's very plausible. That all depends, I think, certainly been in the Best Picture conversation, but will it be shunted to popular? It's very plausible. That all depends, I think, on whether the popular Oscar actually happens, which we have not gotten official confirmation on. I, of course, think that's a terrible idea. Why not just nominate The Lion King for Best Picture if you can do it?

Likewise for Episode IX. I think that's an interesting concept. Star Wars has a complicated history with the Oscars. The original film, A New Hope, was nominated for Best Picture and then no film since. The third film in their trilogy is sometimes you get Return of the Jedi and sometimes you don't.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. J.J. Abrams also not often nominated at the Oscars. No, I mean, we could probably be sitting here this time next year and be like, oh, I think Adam Driver's going to win Best Supporting Actor and that will be the version of the make good that we're talking about. That would make him two for two in that category. Something about this makes

me think, man, I feel like this is coming. Amanda, what do you think? What do you think we're going to see? Well, I don't know whether we're going to see this. And I was talking to you about this before we started filming, and you cautioned me against hope. But there are more possible female directors this year than, say, last year. Greta Gerwig is making a new adaptation of Little Women, starting Saoirse and Timothee Chalamet. That formula has worked for her in the past. Also, Kate, you're glowing.

So am I. This is going to be for us. And that's nice. Marielle Heller, who directed Can You Ever Forgive Me, is directing a Mr. Rogers biopic starring Tom Hanks, which just says Oscar. You'd think so, except Won't You Be My Neighbor was not nominated for Best Documentary this year. That's true. I like to think maybe they were just clearing the way.

There's also a new Dee Rees film. There is a film coming out of Sundance called The Farewell, starring Awkwafina, directed by Lulu Wang, that is getting a lot of buzz. So, you know, every year we hope and then every year we're disappointed. But maybe this year we could just consider nominating one female director. I don't know. Dare to dream? You guys aren't saying anything.

I wouldn't count on it. Historically, that's just not something that has happened very often. And not because it wouldn't be wonderful for Greta Gerwig to be nominated again

or for Lulu Wang to have a moment after Sundance. I think it's possible. It just historically is not something that happens very often. Have you guys considered Ad Astra as a potential Oscar film? I've considered it. I mean, space movies are kind of an interesting dice roll because I feel like it's either a ceiling or a basement situation. You either get Gravity or The Martian

or something that there's a huge collective interest in, but the more culty appeal ones tend to go unnoticed by the Academy in my experience. So it'll be interesting to see if Ad Astra becomes a culty appeal film. This is James Gray's space opera starring Brad Pitt. James Gray, of course, is best known as sort of an independent filmmaker capturing stories about people living hard-bitten lives in New York City. New York City, of course, is not space. So this will be a transition. I'm very curious to see what happens. He's throwing out all the big names when he's talking about

this movie so far. 2001, Apocalypse Now. So, I mean, it's definitely got a huge appeal to you and I. So ambition, whether it can deliver, is another question. Any other films that you guys think we'll be seeing a lot of in the next few months? Do we think, like, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood?

Anything that's going to happen with that? A lot of Brad Pitt next year, too. Yes, indeed. It's worthy of a discussion, for sure. This is Quentin Tarantino's 10th film, I believe. And it's pretty glitzy. It stars Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio. They've been shooting it around our office.

They're shooting it right around Hollywood. The titular Hollywood. And Margot Robbie as Sharon Tate, of course, is about 1960s Hollywood and essentially events surrounding the Charles Manson murders, which feels like a dicey idea for Quentin Tarantino. But then again, Quentin Tarantino kind of lives inside of dicey ideas. That is really his métier.

I'm not sure if Quentin Tarantino is still an object of Academy affection. I think he's certainly a huge Oscar contender in theory every year. But his movies are getting increasingly, I don't know, grotesque and operatic. Sure. From the director of Reservoir Dogs, I think he's getting there. I would say that Amanda mentioned before about Hollywood's infatuation with itself. I don't know if this is the mirror image that they want to see. I mean, this is obviously a very complicated time in Los Angeles history.

It's also, Tarantino has become an increasingly complicated figure, I think, over the course of the last few years. So watching him weather and or play the outside of the movie stuff, like that game will be really fascinating. Yeah, I just have an emoji face in response to it. I want it to work out. I am a Tarantino fan, and I think I like all of those actors, and I like the Cinerama Dome. You know, I like going there.

I'm glad to see it in film. It's very fun. But this seems like a real tightrope and I just, I don't know. I'm going to throw another movie out there. Yeah. To your point about Star Wars,

have you considered Avengers Endgame? Okay. Oh, God. I think that it definitely could get nominated. Yeah. We've kind of been

throwing around as a joke like a Robert Downey Jr. Oscar campaign. Like his final Tony Stark appearance. Like doing kind of like a Hugh Jackman, Logan, like testing the waters. I think it's not crazy.

I don't think it is either. I think it depends on what the ratio is in that movie of leftovers to action scenes. If it's leftovers and they sit around for like three quarters of that movie being like what we lost, what we gained, what we found out about each other, and then they fight, I think you'll get a little bit more critics being like, this is actually the one. This is the best one they've made so far. If it's actually 10 minutes of leftovers and two and a half hours of aliens fighting,

then I think that people will probably forget about it by the time the Oscars come along. Remember when the Avengers movies were funny? No. The Avengers movies were funny? The first one, it had jokes. It had the one scene where they're eating together. I mean, instead of three hours of aliens fighting each other while crying.

Really? This is what you brought to us? They're definitely taking themselves very seriously with this movie. Like, too seriously. So that has Oscar campaign written all over it. I've committed upwards of 100 hours to these movies at this point. I'm in too. You know, take me seriously too. I've committed upwards of 100 hours to these movies at this point. I'm in too. So, you know, take me seriously too. I don't need to be joked at.

It's going to be funny when we're doing Chris Evans versus Adam Driver for Best Supporting Actor. Captain America versus Kylo Ren. Well, can we also talk about Adam Driver? Because The Report is another Sundance movie starring Adam Driver and Annette Bening that is getting a lot of attention. Definitely seems like Annette Bening is going to get her lifetime Oscar for playing Dianne Feinstein. I mean... We've said this many times in the past.

We've said it many times. To your point, this is sort of seen as a corrective for Zero Dark Thirty. That this is sort of like, with hindsight, knowing what we know now, here's a story about the other side of that stuff and what we did wrong during that time period. I think there's one other movie that we should talk about it's the goldfinch goldfinch is of course a literary adaptation of the donna tarts hit novel it's directed by john crowley who made the movie brooklyn i love brooklyn and brooklyn of course was much recognized at the

oscars you loved brooklyn i mean i just i'm keeping my sorgeronan imitation in i know that you've read the novel, Amanda. Yes, books. I have books, yes. This is about movies, but books are good as well. I would be surprised. This has a plum October 11th release date. This is essentially the A Star Is Born release date.

So we're screwed? Yeah. Well, I think it's just about whether these things will be there, not whether they'll win. Book adaptations used to be a major part of prestige films and Oscars, and now just no one cares. Right? More generally? I don't know. I think it's hard to say. We're in this convulsive moment in the Academy, and it's possible that if there's an incredible performance in The Goldfinch, then it will be there.

You're right. I think that there used to be a much more like you could just skip the rock right across the pond and just make Bridges of Madison County as it was still a hit novel. Same thing for No Country for Old Men. For the people who loved it, they're probably really excited for it. It's also 1,000 pages long, so I don't know.

It is Ansel Elgort, who is certainly an actor. Who is that? I have another book adaptation to throw out there. Oh. What about It? It Chapter Two?

Yeah. I don't see it, but it does star Jessica Chastain and Emmy-winning Bill Hader. Yeah. And is directed by Andy Muschietti, who directed the first It movie, which is one of the biggest hits of 2017. So it's possible. Horror, as we know, has a hard time at the Oscars. It just does seem like one of those years where a couple of blockbusters might fall into the right critical acclaim zone that we could have

a bunch of them in the best picture. Okay, well, we'll have to wait and see. I'll see you guys in one year. Okay, guys, as is customary, the Oscars are probably

going to be a trash fire. Historically, they always get these awards wrong. Maybe one or two come along, you know, you get a Mahershala Ali win, you're like, oh, I like that guy. That's cool that he won right on time for Moonlight, not for Green Book. But historically, most of the time, the awards are wrong. So we're going to do something that we're calling the Hindset Awards. In 10 or 20 or 5 or 11 years, the Oscars tend to have a makeup call. They tend to say, oh, we didn't get

it right. We didn't give Martin Scorsese this prize for Goodfellas, so we're going to give it to him for The Departed. So I wanted to talk a little bit about what your hindsight awards will be this year. Now, this can be for movies that are nominated for Best Picture or actors who were nominated in the categories or people who got completely snubbed. So Chris, at the hindsight awards, who are you awarding? I feel like I'm just going to steal the one that is everybody's, but since you picked me first, I'll go for it. It's just going to be when we give Ethan Hawke his best actor award for old man before Richard Linklater movie, whatever it is. Walking around a Florida retirement community, having a 90 minute conversation about age. It's just, this was a travesty that he wasn't nominated.

I thought he gives a performance of the year. I think people will be studying that performance for decades to come, and they owe him. What year do you think they will give him that award? Well, when does the glacier melt? I want to get it in before the sea levels go up. This is assuming we're all dead in 10 years. Let's say 2028.

Jason, what about you? I think it's not going to be too long from now that people will look back and go, well, let me get this straight. Bradley Cooper co-wrote songs, learned to play the guitar, sung the songs, adapted the movie, directed the movie,

acted in the movie, and then was not nominated for Best Director. That is a thing that happened? I think people will be genuinely flummoxed by that. Future generations will be like, how did this happen? To pull off that, like, oven-baked turkey. Yeah. I mean, counterpoint, the real problem here is that he doesn't look like that the rest of the time. Like, you know, if Jackson Maine could run for an Oscar, maybe we'd be in a different situation. Can I ask you a question about Star is Born?

Is there something that Bradley Cooper could do as a director moving forward that would top this or make it look better in retrospect? You know what I mean? I do. Basically, could this be his mean streets? If he's on the way to directing, he'll have a Goodfellas in 10 years. It really just depends on what he wants. I think he should go straight to Limitless 2.

That feels like the move. It's really hard to say. I think he obviously aspires to great director reputation. He spent a lot of time on the campaign trail and in the last five years talking about how he's been mentored by great filmmakers like David O. Russell and particularly Clint Eastwood. He seems quite consumed by Clint Eastwood and what Clint Eastwood has done in his career. So, you know, he probably has to go find a big serious story.

The comparison has been made often to Warren Beatty. Warren Beatty being the co-director of Heaven Can Wait, which was nominated for a lot of Oscars, but didn't really win anything. And then four or five years later, he directs Reds, this big, sprawling historical drama, which doesn't win every award, but wins a lot of awards. Will Bradley Cooper make his Reds? I'm not sure what his Reds is. Maybe it's the Robert Mueller investigation? Probably the Bedouin War story.

Yes, of course, the Bedouin War story. Isn't he just going to make a Big Dick Nick Eagles movie? I mean, I guess so. We're still planningining playbook maybe for that. You could just liquidate my checking account.

It just seems like Bradley Cooper's on planet Earth right now to make that happen for all of us. This is a wholly owned Ringer Films IP. We can't let this

out of our sight. I didn't mean to give it away. Last frame is Bradley Cooper staring at himself in the mirror. I'm a star. I'm a great big star. Will it be a prosthetic though? himself in the mirror. I'm a star. I'm a star. I'm a great big star.

Will it be a prosthetic, though? That's the question. Who can tell? Amanda, what about you? Who are you giving away a giant prosthetic penis to? Wow. All right, this is not what I want to give the person I'm nominating, just for the record.

I don't know. Well, unfortunately, that is the official award in the Hindsight Awards. I feel there are a couple consensus ones. I agree with Bradley Cooper. I agree with Ethan Hawke. I don't think Black Panther is going to win this year, but I think at some point a Marvel movie will win. You kind of have to. Doctor Strange 2.

Yeah, there you go. It's coming. But I would like to give my award to Emily Blunt. Yeah. My award to Emily Blunt, who was in two movies this year, Mary Poppins and A Quiet Place, and was in the awards conversation for both and then was snubbed for both at the Oscars. But she just emerged as a bona fide movie star this year. It was very clear that she's both a great actress and she can do all of the extra work. People want to go see her in movies.

Her acceptance speech at the SAG Awards I think is just like a trial run for a future Oscars acceptance speech. Electric and very charming. So I think we'll see Emily Blunt up there sooner rather than later.

It's almost like if Emily Blunt had done Bradley Cooper's awards campaign we wouldn't even need to have the Oscars. It's a great point. They would have just engraved them all with him.

What is the kind of movie you think Emily Blunt will win for? And what year will she win? Oh wow. Sicario 3. Pull in the return of movie you think Emily Blunt will win for? And what year will she win? Oh, wow. Sicario 3. Pulling the return of Kate Masur. Yeah, but I think you're right.

Just her building the wall. And it's just me watching. No, but it will be a darker movie or probably more of an action movie, I think. Not a costume drama? See, I feel like this is the kind of thing. People never win for the movie that is their most iconic performance. They win for Scent of a Woman.

They don't win for Serpico. Yeah, but I just think, what's the movie, the Doug Liman movie where they've changed the title 40 times? Edge of Tomorrow. Which I couldn't remember the name. Live, Die, Repeat also. Yes, okay, that one is kind of one of her

most beloved cult favorite movies. She got much further with A Quiet Place this year than with Mary Poppins. I think, frankly, she is a comedic, starry movie star type of person. Devil Wears Prada is still my favorite of her performances, but because she's so good at being

charming and funny, that's why I think she'll win for a dark action performance. What box does she need to check on like the recipe sheet you know so she has already like frightening bathtub birth

yes getting jacked for an action sci-fi flick going toe to toe with Meryl Streep yes what's left I mean she also

is singing in Mary Poppins I mean that's another huge costume in Mary Poppins and she's costumed so of course she hasn't gone ugly I think. So, Koshi hasn't gone ugly. I think that's the point.

Yeah. She has to get scarred up and, like, gain 45 pounds. Yeah, and that's also not what anybody wants from Emily Blunt. No one wants to go ugly. So, that's what she'll win for. Yes. That's a very good one. That's a setting to even think about.

Mal, what about you? Who will you be uglifying? Well, my pick was Ethan Hawke. Oh, no. What's he doing? I just want to live in the Far forehead wrinkle for the rest of time. Honestly, wrap me in the barbed wire with him. He must.

I just thought it was the most miraculous performance I had seen in quite some time. I think about that movie more than any film I've seen this year other than Minding the Gap. And it's devastating that he's not going to get recognized for it. It's really upsetting. But since you took that, and since we've already talked about A Star Is Born, which probably would have been my next pick, I think I'm going to take yours.

Okay. Coogler. Yeah, that is where I was going. Yeah. Because here's the thing. It's easy to say, well, how hard is it to make a Marvel movie? But that's actually the miracle of it, right? It's to simultaneously make something that feels so of a piece with the entire universe and

the most powerful and important IP in the world other than Star Wars and Harry Potter and Game of Thrones, and yet to make something that felt totally unique and original and like it was a film that was disconnected from that and lived on its own completely. That's like an unbelievably delicate dance that very few people could have pulled off. Frankly, if it's not something that we regret not awarding him for in the next few years, then that's a victory.

Because it means more people have been able to achieve that and it doesn't feel so special anymore. I'll tell you what, he may not have to wait long. Because if they play this right they could make Black Panther 2 the Godfather 2 of comic book movies. Yeah.

It's very possible. I wouldn't count on it but it's very possible. When do you think Coogler's going to get that Oscar? When he, Ethan Hawke, and Emily Blunt

go to make a movie at Bradley Cooper's tanning salon, I think he'll get it. Looking at this lead actor list, who is standing for Willem Dafoe? Who is out here like... So Willem Dafoe, interestingly... We've got to have Willem Dafoe over Ethan Hawke.

I mean, he is entering a Glenn Close zone, and he's kind of a living example of this category we've invented. Have you guys seen The Wife? Believe it or not, we have. It's not a great film. My choice is Peter Farrelly. I'm just kidding. Experienced a heart palpitation for a moment there.

I think the idea of both a Marvel movie and Coogler is exactly where my brain was going and it's just evident, I think, to almost anybody who works in Hollywood that he is extraordinarily talented. And also, it'll be interesting to see if Hollywood can reckon with Marvel as not just a place that makes money, but makes great things. It's still unclear if it really believes that or if Black Panther was just an anomaly. We'll have to check back in in 35 years. Let's take a quick break from this mega Oscars narrative bonus big

picture episode to hear a word from our sponsor. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Sonos. Amanda, have you used a Sonos before? I have, Sean. Yes. What do you use your Sonos for? I use it in my home, often while cooking, in order to listen to the many Ringer podcasts that I am not on but need to stay up to date with. Which is your favorite of those podcasts? That I'm not on? Hmm. Who am I going to be nice to on this one? You know, I like The Watch a lot.

Think of the stentorian tones of Chris Ryan and Andy Greenwald emanating out of a Sonos Beam. Sonos Beam is the smart, compact soundbar for your TV, and it's the newest addition to the easy-to-use Sonos Home Sound System. I, too, use my Sonos for is the smart compact soundbar for your TV. And it's the newest addition to the easy to use Sonos home sound system. I too use my Sonos for a podcast. I'm often told by my wife to turn that podcast down because I listen at one and a half speed, which makes me slightly crazy. However, the Sonos really radiates the sound in the room and really gets me to hear what I need. And also I like to watch it for movies as well.

You know, the Sonos is perfect for your apocalypse nows, your natural born killers, your really radiant, loud, aggressive, fascinating movies. What kind of movies do you watch with the Sonos Beam? A Star is Born sounds great in the home. You need shallow, really loud. It doesn't work at a normal volume. It needs to be blasting. Sonos Beam supports over 100 streaming services and airplay, so you can play everything you love and enjoy music, as we said, radio, as we said, movies, TV, podcasts, so much more. With built-in Amazon Alexa, you can enjoy hands-free control of your music and more. Connect Sonos speakers over Wi-Fi and listen anywhere in the house. Amanda listens in the kitchen. I listen in my office. Create the ultimate entertainment center

where you can pair Beam with a sub and two Sonos Ones for truly immersive sound. Go to Sonos.com to learn more and order your Beam today. That's S-O-N-O-S dot com. It being Oscar time, there is, of course, controversy. This year, there are controversial nominees in the Best Picture category, among other categories. I'm thinking primarily of Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody. There are other controversial aspects of other movies, but perhaps none so much as those two.

You know, those controversies are pretty well documented, particularly about Nick Vallelonga's character in Green Book and Don Shirley's character in Green Book and the way that some of those characters are portrayed and reported on as acts of journalism and storytelling. Yeah. And, of course, in Bohemian Rhapsody, there is a litany of problems both in front of and behind the camera.

I don't think we necessarily need to unpack all of the problems of those movies. But we find ourselves as Oscar watchers in this complicated moment of only talking about movies through prisms of outrage and failure and identifying whether a movie is good if it aligns with our values. And so I wanted to get a sense from you guys of how we got here and what this really means for something like the Best Picture Race. Amanda. Well, the short answer is that that's how we talk about everything now instead of movies. And I think there are two things I want to interrogate in that sentence. The we, which is not representative of the whole world. It is representative of people online. And even there, there is a real flattening of perspectives and thoughts and modes of expression. So that, for example, some very reasonable criticisms of either Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody

are wrapped in with the general internet chatter and not even chatter, but kind of the machine that stokes the outrage that people kind of get their shackles up about. So there's always a spectrum of conversation, whether it's about movies or politics or a recipe on the internet. And there is always emphasis on kind of the loudest voices.

But I think, and I think that's the problem here, is that the internet always amplifies the loudest voices and the most intense aspects of the discussion. And it's not always productive, even when there are good points being made, if that makes sense. Yeah, the academy is a tricky thing, because it's really a fairly small group of people. So when we're talking about this stuff, there are reviews of movies. And there is a conversation about a movie that comes out into the world.

But when it comes to the Oscars specifically, you're talking about approximately 8,000 people weighing in on something. And those people come from a variety of backgrounds. Some of them are 85 years old and have only known one way of life, living in a grand mansion in Hollywood. And some of them are 29 and don't have very much money and maybe don't live in Hollywood. Maybe they live in Paris or in Canada or Mexico. And what it creates is this fascinating distortion field

where people are talking about a movie like Green Book and there's one person, perhaps the person that lives in the grand mansion, saying, this is a beautiful evocation. What a great meditation on racial reconciliation. And it's just kind of like, this is the same conversation we've been having for literally forever. It's just like, this is a very 1970-something version of this. Yes.

And it's evolved several times past that, which, again, is, like, my personal. And everybody's annoyed with the movie, honestly. Yeah, and I think a lot of people have pointed out that we literally did this with Driving Miss Daisy 30 years ago. In many ways, Green Book mirrors Driving Miss Daisy. It's literally about a white person and a black person in a car traveling and learning more about each other. So there's something fascinating about that. But the idea specifically that, like, not everybody can kind of agree on what makes something worthy is what's in play here. We saw this last year with three billboards outside of Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonough's, I

guess, fable allegory about race violence. Yeah, like, you know, small town America. Still learning the same lesson that there are no good things, no good or bad people, just people that do good and bad things or whatever. I don't know what the... I just didn't need to see the reveal of like, oh, the racist cop actually has a heart of gold or whatever.

And that's what we point back to every year. There is some sort of lesson that is meant to clarify why we're seeing some of these people on screen. Now, I don't think that it's a good idea to say there should be no movies about racist cops. That's a broad stroke. That's a broad brush to play with.

But I think that the way the characters are positioned is what really comes under fire. Chris, why do you think that every year we find a new movie to say, this is wrong, and it should be eradicated? And also, why do those movies continue to persist in the Oscar races? Because I think that the production cycles of Hollywood and the things that are in development and getting greenlit and getting made is a much different process than the public discourse about what we have to reckon with as a country and as a people. And the speed at which we're moving in terms of understanding more deeply about history and the future

and what we've done to each other over the last 400 years is just much more, it's a much faster cycle than making a movie. And Peter Farrelly is just not on salon.com you know what i mean like peter farrelly is slowly going about his career in the way in which like he goes about it and he is not necessarily making something that is going to fit in with that dialogue and you know what like i i've kind of like finally come around where it's like i don't necessarily know if i celebrate it but i definitely accept and embrace the fact that movies that put themselves up for the highest honors in this industry

go through this process. Because it's inevitable, for one thing, so you might as well get mad about how hot or cold it is on any given day. And two, I think it does lead to really, really thoughtful conversations. There may be a lot of noise about like, oh, you're ruining this movie for me by making me, by dragging it. Don't drag this movie. It's just a movie. But like,

we think and talk about things at this time of the year that we ordinarily don't, I think. And I think that's good. I think that that's ultimately good. Yeah, I was going to say, sometimes the way that we have the conversation or the way that we have any conversation just because the internet feels like loud and frustrating and you want to tear your hair out because Twitter is very seldom the best place to talk about anything. But it's good we're having the conversation because we didn't learn it the last time with Driving Miss Daisy. And I think as long as we're all learning stuff in the rest of our lives, it's not just a movie. Movies are how we process and represent the world. And it's important to talk about this stuff.

Yeah, also, it's not out of the realm of being okay to also like problematic art. You know what I mean? Like, I like Zero Dark Thirty. It's a lie. That movie is a lie. But I still appreciate certain aspects of its cinematic accomplishments.

I think it's okay to engage with things on levels where you're like, I understand that there are some morally or ethically dubious things about this movie, but it doesn't necessarily erase the movie from any kind of importance. I think one thing that when a movie like Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody comes along that we have to think about is whether or not these controversies are actually good for the award show or if they're damaging the award show. Because there's a perception with viewership on the show shrinking and with the stratified nature of the movie business that the politicization of these things makes people not want to engage. Not want to engage in the art form, not want to engage in the award ceremony, not want to engage in any of it. I think there is a case to be made that that is true. We've seen things like that happen before with the NFL and the protest movement. And

it's impossible to verifiably confirm whether that's true or not. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence. But I guess it's one of those things where sometimes a controversial headline stokes interest. And it's unclear to me, I guess, I'm curious what you guys think, if this is actually a good thing to have some furor around candidates at the Oscars. Yeah, I mean, I'm with you. It doesn't feel very good. Yeah, it doesn't feel like it's a good thing. Feeling good and being good are two different things.

And yeah, the counterpoint I was going to say is that cable news ratings for the last two years would undermine everything that we just said about how people don't want controversy or politicization of normal events. You know, the idea that the Oscars are not national politics is true, and we do want to enjoy them in a way that maybe we don't want to enjoy reading the newspaper. Let me just say, I would love to enjoy reading the newspaper just once. Just like maybe, dare to dream. So, you sure that people, I find it exasperating.

Micah had the same face of just, it's exhausting. But most people are not reading this every day. Most people aren't aware of these controversies and discussions at the level that we are. Do you guys think that this is going to happen every year henceforth? Yes. Yeah. It's nothing in the recent past or nothing that is on the horizon in the immediate future suggests

that any of this is going to change in any material way. I feel like there's just going to keep being movies where we have the whole conversation about why do we need more movies to make people feel good about racism? Why is this picture not in whatever, whatever, whatever? There's always going to be controversy around it, and we're going to have this discussion about whether or not it draws more eyeballs or devalues the thing. But people turn into the Oscars for the pageantry of it. What happens if Green Book wins Best Picture this year?

Which is in play. Which is plausible. Is it a full-on outrage machine that acts in defiance of the Oscars and then hurts the long-term viability of the Oscars? Or is it just Crash happened again or the artist happened again or a bad thing that we don't like won and Hollywood Hollywood is in a bubble, and they don't understand what's representative of people's taste, or America, or what have you?

I always feel like it's the latter thing. I mean, the same thing happens with Grammy. It's like, they have not gotten the hip-hop category right in 30 years. I mean, we're going to be doing this for a while. So I think probably the latter thing. Institutional change takes a really long time. Really long time. We're sitting in the exit row of it.

It may feel like it's just like, come on, catch up, catch up. We'll be here in years to come being like, will they get it right this year? Is the Oscars ruined by this this year? I think slowly but surely, as the voting body changes, that's where change will come from.

But obviously, we can see from the nominees this year, it's not this year. Yeah, I think that in 15 years, there's going to be another movie where there's a fried chicken scene. Like, it's going to be a while. Guys, there's this little movie out in the world called Roma. You may have heard of it.

It is the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture this year at the Academy Awards. And I'm kind of fascinated about why Netflix, the all-seeing, all-powerful media entity, needs and wants an Oscar. It has two already, but they're fairly small as Oscars go. One was from last year for Best Documentary Feature, Icarus, and a few years back it won for Best Documentary Short for The White Helmets. Roma is a different kind of beast. It is directed by Alfonso Cuaron. It is a masterful portrait of life in Mexico in the 1970s. Why do you guys think that Netflix wants an Oscar? Allison? I do think the operative word is wants more than needs.

Like Netflix is clearly doing fine as far as reach and user base and revenue goes. But I think it's kind of the flip side of what they've been doing in TV. Like on TV, they want to be HBO and they also want to be CBS. And I guess at the box office, they want to be 20th Century Fox, but they also want to be Fox Searchlight. They really want to be all things to all people. And I think they've definitely cornered that market as far as popular, successful, to all the boys I've loved before type movies go. And then this is the ultimate signal that they have made it and that they have an achievement as far as the prestige market goes. What is prestige really worth right now? I guess that's kind of the secondary question that comes with this. Well, I think it's worth the directors

and actors that Netflix wants, because Netflix wants all the directors to want to work with him, despite the fact that their theatrical release strategy is somewhat in the air, and they want movie stars and actors and actresses because they just want a monopoly. They want everyone. And directors, actors, and actresses, and other creators want approval via awards. So I think if they can prove that you can be on Netflix and still get an Oscar, that's one less reason for people to say no thanks. Yeah, and to invoke a bracing image from Succession, it's a closed-loop system. They go out on the awards trail, and they talk, they evangelize for Netflix. It's like, this is the biggest time when Alfonso Cuaron and all these

guys are going to be going out there, and what do they say? Nobody asks, what's it like to work for Warner Brothers? But they ask every single interview, what's your relationship like with Netflix? It's like free publicity for this company that is like the company least in need of publicity in the world next to Apple. It's kind of remarkable. It's true. They probably also don't have a monopoly on like awards viewers yet. They have a monopoly on people who have a Netflix subscription.

They're like, yo, Bird Box. Sure, I'll watch it. But I don't think that every single person who seeks out all the art films and is like, I really care about the Oscars. I mean, most of them probably do have a Netflix subscription at this point because that's how the world works, but they aren't quite as devoted to it. And it does buy their loyalty, I guess. I guess I'm just not totally sure how valuable that is. I think, Chris, what you're saying is true to some extent, but I also think it works against the company. By constantly invoking

the corporation that has funded what you've made, you are essentially identifying that you work for a corporation, which is kind of not in the spirit of making art. And there's something kind of fascinating about this idea that much like Marvel, Netflix is Netflix first. It's very rarely the film first or the television show first. We talk about this. Allison, you've written about this for years now, about what it means to be a Netflix show. And what it means to be a Netflix movie feels like an evolving concept. Well, it is interesting to me that, especially as it relates to their award strategy with the Emmys, it's almost like a complete inversion. Like with the Emmys, it's literally a carpet bomb. They don't necessarily have the three or four most nominated shows, but they have so

many shows that in turn get so many nominations that they, you know, this was the first year that they beat out HBO in terms of the total nominations. And then I think they tied for the ultimate awards. So I think with the Emmys especially, it really is like Netflix, Netflix, Netflix. And when you go to the Oscars, you know, they had, I think, 15 total nominations this year, and two-thirds of that is just Roma. So I do think there's a little more of a careful effort this time to, like, get behind a single artistic project, and I think Roma does come out, you know, as much, if not more, than the distributor, in at least this case. The thing that's fascinating to me is that the extinction-level event for this town, which is Netflix and which is coming to destroy theater going and all this other stuff that we hold so dear as like part of our pop culture consumption process is also the thing that's keeping alive careers like Cuaron's and the

Coen brothers and Steven Soderbergh's and underwriting all the people that we think should be, you know, placed in this hollow area of Hollywood or be able to make the movies that they want to make. And Netflix is the one who's letting them do it. This very thing that is taking away Hollywood's market share on our time is also the thing that's perpetuating these careers. It's like an absolutely fascinating paradox. It's an interesting thing too, because one of the things we talk about with Netflix movies is the fact that Netflix makes movies that Hollywood doesn't always make anymore. Some of their best movies last year were not necessarily awards fair.

They were rom-coms, or they were teen comedies. They were movies that have kind of moved into a new realm of consumption. And I'm curious to see in the years to come whether a Netflix movie is more like Roma or more like To All the Boys I've Loved Before or Bird Box or any number, or even The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, which I wouldn't classically define as an awards movie. It's a Coen Brothers movie, so it's naturally going to be noted. And it did get three Oscar nominations. But

what direction do you think the company is going to go in terms of what kind of movies it makes? I mean, I think the real answer is both. I certainly think that they will make more of the intensely watchable To All the Boys I've Loved Befores just because those movies do really well. And we know they do really well because they've actually told us that they're successful on Netflix, which is extremely rare. But, you know, they have a conquer everything strategy. Netflix just wants to wipe out all of the competition. So I think they will keep trying at the Oscars just because there's someone else competing against them. And it's funny that you can see, like, it's more of an expenditure and effort for them. Like,

you know, the veracity of this is debatable, but one of the excuses studios will always offer in terms of how insane Oscar campaigns are is, you know, it does theoretically help box office and maybe they don't break even, but like there usually is a tangible bump. And Netflix doesn't care about and usually doesn't have box office and then they had to like pay to put Roma in theaters explicitly for basically for the purposes of its Oscar campaign so they didn't freak out voters too much

and it's so weird to see the cart leading the horse in this one specific Oscar campaign. I agree with Amanda that it'll probably be both and if I had to be cynical about it, I'm sure it'll be more Bird Box and Cloverfield Paradox

and things that they buy off of studios that they don't have a spot for on the release slate. But the hopeful side of me, anecdotally sees, especially from doing the watch and hearing from people, is that they just give stuff more of a chance if it's on Netflix because of ease of use. They go to the main page and if something's sitting right there and they see a picture and they're like, that guy, I'll give this 15 minutes. And if you watch 15 minutes of Roma, hopefully you'll be captivated. And if you watch 15 minutes of Buster Scruggs,

hopefully you'll be captivated. Maybe you even convert someone who's never heard of the Coen brothers or Alfonso Cuaron into liking or being interested in their work, which is a lot easier than we're going to have this full rollout of press and television, talk show appearances and trailers. And we're going to hope to get the word out. And then it's only going to be in a few theaters. So if you live anywhere outside of New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles, you might have a hard time seeing this piece of art. Like Netflix completely cuts that middleman out. Given that it's a conquer everything strategy, I wonder if we'll get to a place in two, three years where three or four of the films nominated

for best picture are all made by Netflix. I think that that is actually something that is in play here. And I'm curious to see if they're going to continue to push forward with these kinds of films aggressively, because the Roma choice was very specific. The year prior, we had Mudbound, which was sort of its first serious effort at campaigning for Best Picture, and they didn't get that nomination. Roma is a major, is as much of an all-in as you could possibly have in this respect. And there's an enormous amount of expenditure that goes into getting movies these nominations and getting the film in front of people and getting

the talent in front of the voters. Do you guys see a world in which there are five Romas somewhere down the line? I think you can definitely see them upping their reps. I do think it's really interesting that at the same time that this award season brouhaha is going on, like, in subsequent weekends, they have released a Jake Gyllenhaal vehicle directed by a Gilroy, which I'm assuming if it were maybe, like, a little better received, might have been pushed a few just to kind of throw out in February that they know aren't going to get any awards consideration, at least to me, says that they are doing enough that they have some stuff saved for next October and the October after that. Let me just pitch one hypothetical to you guys. If you were in the film industry, would you hold it against Netflix that Netflix wants this too? I would not at all. And I have kind of been frustrated with that narrative as it applies to Roma. There are a lot of people who are against Roma because it's a movie that you

should see in theaters and that it's on Netflix, you know, ruins the fidelity of the whatever. That's true. And I saw Roma in a theater and that was really meaningful to me. But the fact that Roma is on Netflix means that millions of people around the world can see Roma who would never have a chance to see Roma. And that's true for a lot of movies. And it just provides access to a lot of people who otherwise will never go to the theater and will never see your movie. So if you're in the industry and your goal is to have people see your movie, which as I understand it is most people's goal, I think Netflix is your best bet and is opening a lot of doors and audiences that weren't there. Yeah, and the one in 100, this sounds Pollyanna-ish,

but the one in 100,000 person who went to Netflix that day to watch The Ranch and found Roma, like, that's pretty remarkable. I guess we'll have to wait and see if Roma wins or not. Thanks, guys. Voting for Best Picture is actually quite complicated. And I don't know if the world at large totally understands how we get our best picture at the end of the day. So there is something called preferential balloting.

And we're going to try to explain how any number of the films nominated for Best Picture here this year in the year of our Lord 2019 could win on February 24th. We're going to try. We're going to try. We're also going to try to explain preferential balloting. Yes. So should we start there? Essentially, all of the nominees this year, there are eight, are ranked from one to eight. Each ballot, a voter gets to rank them. And if one film gets 50% of the vote, it's done. Winner. Winner. We've chosen a winner.

If not, the film with the lowest number of first place votes is eliminated, and on each ballot, the second place voter... Slides up. Slides up. There we go. That mostly makes sense, right? That's essentially the broad concept of preferential balloting. Yeah.

Now, as you go through the thing, particularly if the votes are dispersed widely, and several films have fewer than 30%, what you have here is a lot of films pulling second, third, even fourth place votes in some cases, sliding up to go to a new film. This is fairly complex, and in a year like this, Exactly. I find it to be fascinating where we sit because in the various guilds, and we'll talk through some of this, number of different films

have been rewarded. And so we don't really know what's going to win. So how do we arrive at our best picture this year? So let's start with Vice. And I'm suggesting starting with Vice because I think it's the least likely to win. I agree. Which probably means it's going to win and that's fine. Everything that we say here today is just going to guarantee that the other thing happens. But, you know, just join us in the conspiracy zone. Please don't turn this video off now. Okay, so how Vice could win.

It's pretty well nominated. So typically when a film is nominated across the board, that suggests kind of across the board respect from actors and the technicians and the directors. People are thinking about the movie. People are thinking about all aspects of the movie. Broad support is what we call it. Yes. And then the other thing here is that typically at the Oscars, people like a timely film. People like something

that feels relevant. There is a group of voters who are like, well, my vote means something and this is what I'm going to say about the state of America right now via my vote. Typically, that goes quite wrong.

They're saying some very strange things about the state of America. It's complicated. Yes, but you could see people kind of aligning with Vice in that context. I certainly think that's what has propelled it this far. But Vice has been polarizing. True.

And it's not winning a lot of these major Guild Awards. That's true. And I would say that the anticipation towards the film was probably a little bit more intense than the aftermath reception of the film. So my gut here is that, as you said, this movie has no chance. I would agree. What do you think comes right after Vice? I would put Black Klansman somewhere in there in the same idea of relevant,

timely movies with a strong directorial vision. And again, it kind of has the same nomination grouping, which is in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay. There was an acting nomination for Adam Driver, though not for John David Washington, sadly. There's a lot of excitement about Spike Lee finally getting his due here. It's plausible that he pulls off a dark horse victory for Best Director, even still. Yes, I think it probably wouldn't extend.

The excitement is about Spike. After Black Klansman, probably as A Star is Born, sadly. Yeah. So a lot of these same ideas apply. There have been a lot of acknowledgments of the acting in A Star is Born. It's, of course, nominated for Best Picture. It's nominated for Best Screenplay, but no Best Director nomination for Bradley Cooper. Harsh. Complicated campaign for Bradley Cooper. Like, non-existent campaign for Bradley Cooper. That's the problem. It's also missing a Best Editing nomination, which is something that you see often for films that are going to go on to win Best Picture. Now, there is a late bid here between this movie's $400 million plus gross and appearances with Oprah that signal that maybe there's kind of a second life that's going to

burst The Star Is Born forward. Yeah. But I don't see it. Maybe if the math goes a certain way. Let's talk a little bit about the next film, which I think is probably the favorite, which is not the favorite to win in any meaningful way. And I'm very sorry for that pun. But I think that this is an interesting subject here because this film has also not won hardly any awards from the guilds, but it is tied with Roma for the most nominations, which is pretty meaningful.

Historically, there are two films that are often kind of neck and neck with the most nominations. And those two films ultimately do go on to win the most awards. What's the downside of the favorite here? Which I think is projected to win Best Original Screenplay as well. Yes. I think, which I know I've said this a lot, but there is a tradition of you win a Screenplay Award and nothing else. The Screenplay Award is the like, we really like you and are glad you're here and we don't want you to go home empty-handed. The proverbial consolation prize.

Yeah, it's, so, the fact that it's the favorite individual screenplay is one of the things against it. It's true. Again, it hasn't won many awards at the Guilds. It got Best Picture, Yorgos Lanthimos was nominated for Best Director, which was a bit of a surprise. It was. People seem to have accepted the twist. So, I think probably the thing here is just if it's number three on everyone's list. If it is like the consolation vote of like, you know what, I really liked it. And it wasn't my favorite. Sorry, there's no way to avoid the puns. The movie that I think is most fascinating that could benefit from this,

that has really had very little support through a very long, now year-long campaign, is Black Panther. Yeah. So what's the, is Black Panther. Yeah. So what's the case for Black Panther's win? So it rests on its victory at the SAG Awards. Black Panther won the best ensemble, which is the SAG version of Best Picture. And most people didn't expect that to happen. It was a surprise.

It was a happy surprise. And as we mentioned earlier, the Actors Branch is the largest voting branch in the Academy. Now, it's not a direct correlation between the people who vote for SAG and the people who vote for Oscars, but it does suggest that there is a good amount of Black Panther support in that branch. That's really the only argument for it, frankly. I mean, the other argument is that it's made over a billion dollars. The thing about it is, winning that SAG Ensemble Award really only signals that your film is more than likely crowd-pleasing. Movies like The Help and Hidden Figures have won this award in the past, and it's very rarely an indicator of what's going to win Best Picture. It does indicate that a lot of people like it. I also liked it. I liked it as well. Does liking something mean it's going

to win the top prize? It probably should, but that's actually not how the Oscars works. So, you know, with no Ryan Coogler nomination here for Best Director, with no acting nominations whatsoever despite that ensemble win, I feel like it doesn't have a chance. It does feel like the quintessential number two pick to me. The next movie we're going to talk about, which is the sixth of eight, is Bohemian Rhapsody. Now, if you would have asked me in October, what kind of Oscar chances does Bohemian Rhapsody have? I would have said zero, literally zero. And I hadn't even seen the film at that point. When I saw it, if you would have asked me, I would have

said zero. If you would have asked me in December, I would have said zero. And then I saw The Golden Globes, where it won Best Drama, and things began to change. Now, obviously, this movie is stoked by controversy. It is surrounded by difficult subjects from the complications of its original director, Bryan Singer, to some of the details around what the film did and did not get right about the life of Freddie Mercury, and also the life of the band Queen. To the lacking quality of the filmmaking itself? It's also, yes, at times it appears to be quite shoddily made. And it's fascinating that it's here.

However, massive hit. Massive hit. And it makes people feel good and they have fun when they see it. You know, I agree with you that it has a real chance. And my concerns are primarily in the fact that it won at the Golden Globes. It won at the Editing Awards, of all damn things. Which, you know, there's been a clip circulating on Twitter that suggests why that was possibly not the best choice.

But, you know, it's their guild. Who am I to judge? It's been nominated across the board. And it is that crowd-pleasing favorite. You know, I don't think as many people are as online as we are and are as aware of the Bryan Singer allegations and all of the controversy that is surrounding it. The other thing that worries me is that Rami Malek is essentially the favorite for Best Actor at this point, which suggests support in the actor's branch and a willingness to overlook certain issues around it, at least for a performance. And, you know, an actor is different from a film and they might be able to make the distinction, but it just kind of seems like enough people are willing to overlook enough things, and it just feels like it could happen.

The next movie on your list, similarly clouded in controversy, but also has been doing quite well. Yes. That movie, of course, is Green Book, which is not nearly the financial box office hit that Bohemian Rhapsody is, though it's winning a lot of awards.

Boy, is it. And a lot of people like it. And it's certainly tapping a historical vein. This movie essentially arrived in the consciousness of those who follow movies closely at the Toronto International Film Festival, where it won the Audience Award. So what that tells us is people who work inside the film industry, who see a lot of movies and go to film festivals, dig this movie. The conversation around Green Book has unfortunately spawned a backlash to the backlash among a certain set of voters. So there is a certain set of voters, and we know this because they're giving anonymous

interviews to places like the Daily Beast and the Hollywood Reporter. There is a set of voters who is like, how dare you attack this nice movie? And I'm going to vote for it. And so I think that there is a dedicated group of people who are going to put this at number one and number two. The case for it winning is it has like 20% or even like 30% starting. And there are enough people who have it in three and four that it slides up to 50%.

This brings us to the odds-on favorite. Yes. Which I find to be a fascinating odds-on favorite for all of the reasons we've just used to explicate the other seven films that are nominated. Roma is probably the biggest unknown in Oscar history primarily because it's a Netflix movie. We don't yet totally know what the Academy's relationship is to Netflix. We know that it loves Alfonso Cuaron, who directed the movie. He's already won Best Director in the past for Gravity. So this is a true blue auteur that Hollywood loves. Roma is, in some respects, a lot like a Best Picture winner and others not at all. It's black

and white and it's a foreign film. Foreign films never won Best Picture in the history of the Oscars. We've done 90 of these, never had a foreign film. There's a lot of world cinema. So that's a fascinating thing to note. So there's a large number of nominations for a film of its kind. And that feels notable to me. What else do you think is pushing towards the realm of favorite? Well, Caron is as close as we have to a lock as i said in best director and those categories don't always go together but they often go together and i think as you mentioned the level of crone's involvement in this movie suggests i mean if you're not thinking of them together then you're really not thinking which you know many academy voters don't but i do think that like the certainty of him in best director means that people are

thinking as much about the technical aspects of the film and its achievement um which means that hopefully you'll get a lot of the kind of technical voters the sound editors the sound mixers who are a considerable number of voters, actually. And then that it also got nominations for both Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tibera, which wasn't totally expected. No. But that proves that the actors are thinking about it as well. So it feels like a lot of number twos will come in here.

Yeah. And I think that that's actually what's potentially holding it back rather than pushing it forward. Yeah. Because if a movie like Green Book somehow garners 43% of the vote on the first turn, Roma having a lot of number twos isn't necessarily going to be helpful. Right. And it's unclear what's going to happen.

Yeah. The betting markets are usually right. And I do think just the number of nominations across all categories suggests that Roma can get there first. And I think it will be Roma, but I did this last year with Get Out and then something else once. So it could also be Bohemian Rhapsody. Well, I'm glad we spent all this time on it. I look forward to Vice's win as best picture.

Thanks so much Amanda Amanda that was our Oscar narratives bonus show what do you think of that show I enjoy talking with some people other than you maybe that's something we can correct next year until then you'll have to get a little bit more of me on Sunday February 24th that is of course the night of the Oscars we will be coming to you live probably on video maybe but certainly on podcast hopefully you'll have to get a little bit more of me on Sunday, February 24th. That is, of course, the night of the Oscars. We will be coming to you live, probably on video, maybe, but certainly on podcast.

Hopefully you'll tune in then. See you on the 24th, Amanda. Today's mega Oscar narratives bonus episode of The Big Picture is brought to you by Sonos. I have been using my Sonos Beam for weeks now, re-watching every darned Oscar screener that I can get my hands on. I feel fully loaded and it's because I've heard the movies. I've not just felt the movies. Watching with my Sonos Beam has given me everything I need to fully understand where I'm at and maybe understand why First Man's probably going to get snubbed. Sonos Beam is the smart and compact soundbar for your TV. It's the newest addition to the easy to use Sonos Home

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