The Big Picture - The 2019 Oscars: Final Ballot Predictions | The Oscars Show (Ep. 128)

Episode Date: February 19, 2019

The Academy has flip-flopped again, saying they would reinstate the four categories they cut from the telecast just last week. Is that the right decision, an indication of a true crisis, or both (0:39)? Plus, an exhaustive breakdown of every Oscars category, including who will (and should) win (36:30). Hosts: Sean Fennessey, Amanda Dobbins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm Sean Fennessy and I'm Amanda Dobbins and this is the big picture a conversation show about the Oscars which once again is on fire or maybe it's resolving itself Amanda voting is closed the Oscars are just a few days away we're going to be doing many things in this episode including predicting all 24 races that are coming to you live Sunday, February 24th. But first, we really have to talk about everything that has been unfolding in the telecast. This, of course, is the big picture's big picture. Here we go. This is a problem in the big picture. Do you know what I mean? Amanda, we learned on Friday that the four shunted categories that the Oscars had been pressing for, that the Academy had been plotting to shorten this show to three hours

are back on the telecast. This felt to me like a real traditional news dump. They tried to get it out at the best possible time of ahead of a holiday weekend. What was your immediate reaction to the news that we'd be seeing these four categories again? This is the right decision. They should have been in the telecast from the beginning

and then fatigue. And then, and then, and just, you know,, it's like it's good. We did it. The right thing is happening in this particular case. The whole telecast is still a mess. I have a real bitter feeling about everything that's going on and not just at the Academy at this point. I'm basically tired of everyone talking about this. We can talk more about the telecast length, but this is the greatest argument in the world for putting the Oscars like late January, early February, get it over with because I'm cranky. I know if you think about it last year,

the show aired in like early March and a few years ago it aired in late March. So this has felt endless. It's fascinating that we're still adjudicating all of this stuff. The last, I think the last 10 or 12 days though has been a paroxysm, the likes of which I've not seen before. This has been a very badly handled scenario. And Academy President John Bailey has really come under fire. He gave an interview to Anne Thompson over the weekend that I encourage people to check

out on IndieWire. He seems to not know what he's doing. There was a piece in The Times on Saturday with Donna Gigliotti and Glenn Weiss, the two producers of this show. They don't really seem to know what they're doing. This has just been a tenured operation since last August. And it is really going in the direction that we should have known it was going the whole time, which is incompetence, a general lack of clarity about what the purpose of this show is. Let's talk a little bit about some of the particular things that have happened. Do you credit the heavy protest and letters of protest that the filmmakers shared with the reason that we got these four categories back? Yes. And I think that's a really important distinction.

There were letters sent from very big names to the Academy. Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, Spike Lee. And that is what got the response. And there was a lot of people on Twitter being like, hey, we did it. Twitter is amazing. And look what we can do. And like, quite frankly,

Twitter has been complaining for months and no one cared at all until the actual celebrities and big names within the industry learned what was happening and signed their name to a letter. And that is what happened. The kicker of Brooke Barnes's piece

in the New York Times is wonderful. I would encourage people to check that out as well. It's just a quote from Donna Gigliotti in which she says, I don't know how to use Twitter. And so that's really evident. And I'm not necessarily sure that knowing what people are saying on Twitter is the right way to make decisions at a high level, especially not for something as valuable as the Oscars. There was a very under the radar piece about how profitable the Academy was in deadline this weekend, the sum of which is entering billions of dollars. This is a huge organization and there's a lot of money on the line and the stewardship of this show and this group is super important. So you

don't necessarily want to be knee jerk about what some jerk like me says on Twitter about what they should do with their show. But the consensus was powerful on this one. And it seemed so clearly self-evident that every choice that they had made down the line was making people who actually care about their show unhappy. And so this has been a kind of a fascinating moment. What did you also take away from the New York Times piece? Well, the show's not going to be shorter anymore. No, it's not. I mean, Dan Gagliotti says that in the piece, it will no longer be three hours, which I'm on record. I think that every single category should be aired live as it is being now. And I'm also on record of thinking three hours is a completely reasonable ask and a time limit. And there is a reason that people don't want to give four hours of their time

because three hours is really long. And we can talk about this at length, but the audience is being forgotten in this entirely. And that's okay because to an extent it is an award show and it is to hand people trophies and it is for industry glad handing or whatever. But as you just mentioned, there's a lot of money on the line and they make a lot of that money at this award show by getting the attention of a lot of people. And they don't seem to have any understanding of what the actual audience wants or any respect for kind of the audience's time or interest. And I kind of even felt in some of the backlash and some of the really, really strident, how dare you, this is an insult to the history of movies that you would cut like live action short from the program it's kind of like well you know what most people have already given you a lot of their time and money watching the movies and now they're gonna watch you guys celebrate each other because that's what

we do and you'll make money off of it and maybe you could just have some general thought for the fact that most people got to get up on the east coast and go to work the next day and they don't give a shit they just don't it's true and a shit. They just don't. It's true. It's true. And in general, I just don't think that the producers, the Academy, the critics, anyone is thinking about, we're asking millions of people to watch our show. It's a unique anxiety because you have to serve a lot of different masters if you're running this show. Primarily, and I think this has been relatively under-discussed, the master that you're serving is ABC. That's who is giving you all this money to put this show on. They are the network partner. And ABC wants this show to be three hours. And

it's very clear why. Because once you get past 11 p.m. on the East Coast, people are going to bed. Like you just said, they got to go to work the next day. So they just don't care. If movies are in fact becoming less crucial to people's lives, maybe they don't care whether Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book or Black Klansman or Black Panther or Roma or any of these other movies, half of which most people have not heard of or seen, ends up winning Best Picture. They just go to bed. And so they lose money when the number goes down. Now, I still think that the number might go up this year. We'll talk a little bit about that in a bit because I think they're doing an interesting job of drawing some attention to themselves this year. But, you know, Donna Gigliotti in this piece says,

we were hired to deliver a shortened show. That's very clear. She's hired by the Academy and also ABC. They're working together to make that higher. And she said, how do we do that so you're not seeing award, award, commercial, award, commercial, award, so boring. I have a counter to that, which is that it should be the Oscars. The Oscars should be maybe two montages,

maybe some songs, and then awards. It's an award show. The name of the show is the Academy Awards. It's not the Academy Awards in song and dance and montages. So it feels like we're being insulted a little bit. And to your point, I think the idea of do you serve the audience? Do you serve the network master? Do you serve the filmmakers?

If you've offended the likes of Martin Scorsese and Spike Lee, have you broken this sort of sacred trust between the people who are being recognized here and, I don't know, the viewership at large and then also the Academy and then also the network? There's all these different figures at play here and no one's ultimately going to be happy. You and I have talked a lot about the struggles of live events in this century. This is an interesting test case because there has not been this much noise around an award show in a long, long time. Can you even think of a, what's a precedent for something like this? Before the award show itself? I mean, the last time that any award show matters this much, mattered this much was La La Land versus Moonlight, but that was after the fact. That was after things went wrong on live television and And we had a lot of people to blame.

And it was also kind of exciting because Moonlight, an unexpected Best Picture winner, saved the day, more or less. Can I ask you just the sidebar about that? The fact that you brought that up. You know, for a year or so after that happened, I thought that was a great thing for the Oscars. I thought it would stoke interest. And I thought it was like, obviously, I was very happy about Moonlight's win in particular. Do you think it's possible that there was some sort of loss in the public trust of the Oscars because that scene from a different angle was such a shit show that people were like, well, this is a joke of an institution? No, most people do not think about the Academy as

an institution. And I think that that's a real thing that's lost among the Academy, among ABC, among the producers, among the critics, among everyone who's talking about this. I don't really think about the Academy that much as an institution, and I'm a person who has spent the last four months doing a podcast about the Oscars and who really cares about it. People are not thinking about the Academy or history or what it's funding in terms of archiving at all when they're watching the Oscars. That is basically just not on people's minds.

When they come out and give you a speech about how that's what the Academy does, everyone's really annoyed and they want to fast forward or go get a drink or go to the bathroom. Like, no, no one actually cares. And I don't know that you need to get the audience to invest in the institution of the Academy in order for the Oscars to still matter. I think that's actually part of the problem because it's so inaccessible to so many people. Like, no one cares. And you can get them to care about movie history and you can get them to care about movies

they can actually see. And you can get them to care about movie stars or you can get them to care about exciting moments when Moonlight wins or when a, you know, a young person or Mahershala Ali wins for the first time or something unexpected. But you can't get people to care about like a secret governing body in Los Angeles that congratulates itself a lot and also has a bunch of things in a museum that most people will never

be able to see. I think you're right. I think people do think of it as more of a disembodied thing, but I think just as a show, like once upon a time, as silly as it was, the VMAs meant something to people who were 15, right? You would just be like, I watched the VMAs. I wake up, it's September 7th or whenever that show airs. I just, I know that I got to check this out tonight because my favorite band's going to play or a movie star I like is going to be there or Jim Carrey's going to give a crazy award speech. I remember that being my impulse when I was a teenager. I have to check out what Jim Carrey's going to do with the VMAs. That's gone. It lost, not only am I old, but the VMAs just doesn't have the same power and the consciousness. The Oscars has always been able to withstand

this kind of feeling, this kind of tumult in the past. And I don't know, maybe it isn't. Maybe it can. I find myself having an odd existential reflection given how much time I've spent thinking and analyzing and writing about this. And it'll be fascinating to see if the ratings are down again. And then all of a sudden we're in that like, this is just about as popular as the most popular sitcom territory in terms of the ratings, whether something starts to really break apart here.

I think that the ratings are going to be down because for the simple reason that people can watch this in different ways. And when you were talking about it's 11 and people don't really care about whether Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book or Roma wins Best Picture. Well, they can also just watch the moment tomorrow on YouTube or on Twitter in like

two minutes. You don't actually have to stay and watch the live show in order to experience what the interesting parts of it are anymore. How will they hear the big picture afterwards? That's true. I mean, you know, I can't go to sleep after the Oscars. We're making a podcast for you. But some of it is just completely separate from what the Academy means to people and what the industry means to people.

And some of it's just really practical because most people are not living and dying. You know, maybe a million people. A million people really, really care what happens on Sunday night and what happens to the telecast. And that's a lot of people. Those are of people. Those are my people. And that's a lot of people to be invested in the minutiae of an awards show and a strange governing body. And that is still, if only 1 million people watch the Oscars, you know, Hollywood, the

walls would come crumbling down. 26 million people was low. There's been hand-wringing. People are really upset. So most people don't care. Most people are just kind of like, well, it's tradition. This is what we do.

And I'll give it a certain amount of time and no more. And the way that people actually consume television is going to be the main difference in how it goes. And more so than the nominees, more so than any sort

of telecast controversy. Because most people just, they got other things to do. I'm prepared to eat crow on this because my self-worth is very low. But in the event that the ratings are up, I think now one of the reasons for it is not going to be

what I've theorized in the past, which is that A Star is Born and Black Panther are here. And those movies are very popular. It's very rare. It's virtually unheard of with the exception of Titanic and Avatar. That a movie as successful as Black Panther

and a movie as successful as Bohemian rhapsody are both nominated for best picture This this just doesn't happen. So theoretically there should be more interest We just learned as we started taping that queen and adam lambert will be performing most likely bohemian rhapsody at this award show That's certainly not going to make the show any shorter nor is that song nominated because it was recorded 35 years ago but There is interest in queen right now more interest than there's ever been. And there's also interest in disasters. And we have a disaster on our hand. We have a thing that we've been hearing about for months and months, and people are just like, what are they doing? The host fiasco, the shortening of the categories, the attempt to get it to three hours,

the difficulties of movies like Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody getting into the mix here. There is all of this attendant noise. And if you believe that all publicity is good publicity, then maybe, just maybe, we're going up a little bit. Because again, we have to remind people that the frontrunners last year were The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri,

and nobody had heard of those movies. So this is a little bit of a different game. But you're looking at me like you're not convinced. I agree with you. And I think when we were talking about the Kevin Hart fiasco and they were going back and forth, like maybe if he apologized, maybe he doesn't. And, you know, and they send Ellen out there

to kind of give like a soft ask with the most bizarre imaginations I've ever seen. But my conspiracy theory was, I think they know that if Kevin Hart actually does host the Oscars, people will tune in just to see what happens because he is so famous. And because he's so famous, that was publicized. He was on Ellen. He was on Good Morning America. People were arguing about whether he should be held

responsible for his comments. That was a big deal. I don't really think anyone cares about the categories. I really think that that's like the million people that we talked about know about it. And honestly, no one else knows. It does keep the show in the mainframe though. It does mean that if you go to entertainmentweekly.com on Friday, and a lot of people do, millions and millions of people do that every Friday, you're just going to see a story in the lead about the Oscars. Why would you see that story if not for this mess that they've made for themselves? You know, in addition to these big things, they've done all these little things in the last few days. In that near time story, they unveiled the stage for this award show, which looks like Donald Trump's hair. That's

just what it looks like. I don't know what else to say. That to me is the biggest indictment of the whole producing team, because if you don't look at that picture and immediately think this looks like Donald Trump's hair and maybe we should go in a different direction, then you're just not seeing the world the way the rest of us are seeing the world. It's just, just make it purple. You know, like it is literally that, that gross hay color of his hair. This doesn't have to be anything about Donald Trump.

It's just like, this just, it just looks like his head. This is just super weird that they did this. It's the only thing that you can see instantly. I don't understand how no one thought, hey guys, maybe we shouldn't. It's bizarre. So that happened. There was a little bit of back padding about the fact that no quote unquote everyday people will be involved in the Oscars. Of course, Jimmy Kimmel involved a lot of traditional

citizens. Chris Rock did this a number of years ago too. I would say that that was not my favorite part of the Oscars, but I also was not offended by those sequences. Particularly, I thought Chris Rock kind of going out amongst the people when they were seeing films was kind of a good like late night comedy bit that worked as interstitials in the show and rarely took more than 90 seconds. Donna Gigliotti and Glenn Weiss say no mas. I just want to say they sometimes take more than 90 seconds. And I thought that they were charming, but sometimes they went on for like seven minutes. I think Kimmel's last year was quite long, perhaps a little bit protracted.

However, there will be additional people who are outside of the moviemaking industry presenting awards this year. One of which is one of your favorite people, Serena Williams. Presenting for A Star is Born. Which, man, they just really, they tapped your vein for that one. Yeah. That we haven't announced, they haven't announced who the other presenters will be. I guess essentially to present the nomination for Best Picture throughout the show in the way that they do. Any guesses as to who will be presenting?

Well, michelle obama already gave her spot away at the grammys but it's immediately what I thought of and That was the happiest that anyone was watching the grammys all night was when michelle obama showed up and She was in a weird kind of music empowerment Speech and I it was not really clear why she was there, but no one cared. I didn't care. Michelle Obama. So I don't think they would get Barack, would they? I could see it for Black Panther.

Yeah. That would be a big moment. Yeah. Although I don't know if he can be seen to be favoring one over another in some sort of voting scenario. Was Black Panther on his top 10 list? Who can say?

I do remember it burning was, which was the weirdest thing that ever happened in the history of movies. I'll just show up to say, burning was, which was the weirdest thing that ever happened in the history of movies. Barack Obama will just show up to say, burning was snubbed. Let's just all remember that Barack Obama watched burning. That's just amazing. Shout out to Barack Obama.

Anything else that we want to say before we go to our next segment about this telecast? I mean, we're going to be there on this coming Sunday night. We'll have a lot to say about it. This has been a fascinating sociological experiment in getting me annoyed at stuff on twitter I'm, like I try to not have that persona as less as I can And frequently I have felt like what the fuck are these guys doing as this has unfolded. I agree. I just feel really sour. I feel

unusually sour about the whole thing and that is not how I One of the self-professed million of people who actually do care about the oscars would love to be looking forward to it and to be having a nice time, should be feeling. Most people aren't going to care. Most people are going to be annoyed that it's a little long. But when you and I are this grumpy, they've done something wrong. I agree. My podcast persona ought to be cheery. And I just think that it is indicative of a total lack of vision.

It's a hard time to know what to do with the Oscars because we keep talking about this. And I think you and I have slightly different views on what it should be going forward and which audience or master they should be serving and what you need to do to bring the Oscars into the 21st century. We're in the 21st century, right? We are in the 21st century. I promise you. We are nearly 20 years into the 21st century. I don't know. Things are moving so fast. It's a challenging time for the Oscars. It's a challenging time for live shows. It's a challenging time for movies. It's a challenging time for television and how people watch things. So it's

not an easy job. I'm sympathetic. I think the problem is that no one is willing to recognize the actual challenges and they're just trying to stick with business as usual or put a bandaid on stuff. And that is not, it's too far gone. Can I make one other recommendation for who should present for Best Picture Nomies? Maybe like a lead of Battle Angel? Maybe they should get her in there? I mean, this is like, no. No? Okay. No. Which again, you know, that's part of the problem, right? Is that a thing that would make you laugh, I would be like, I'm so angry at you. There have been much more ridiculous things than that. A dinosaur came on stage one year. A real dinosaur? When? Well, not a real dinosaur. They're extinct.

Yeah, but like, you know, like an animatronic dinosaur. An animatronic dinosaur once came out when Elijah Wood was presenting a Best Special Effects Oscar, I believe in the year of Jurassic Park, 1995. Okay. So, you know, maybe we'll get a real Alita. I would be okay with that. Okay. Not with Alita, with an animatronic dinosaur. Let's put a pin in this.

We will discuss not just the results of the Oscars next Sunday, but I think also how well did they do and kind of what is this show supposed to be in the aftermath of this production? Because my gut says we're going to get a completely different show next year, regardless of how this shakes out, that they're going to rethink this whole thing, that the offer is already out to Dwayne Johnson to have him host. I think that they're already correcting this year's mistakes. I hope so. Although everything that they've done up till now indicates to me that they are not because they can't even correct this one or take it seriously. But, you know, I do hope that something good comes out of this, which is that they realize

there needs to be a sea change, not just in the membership and not just in the telecast, but really in what the Oscars are supposed to mean to people. You have to be thinking of it at that. Sorry, big picture at this point. My final thought on this is I'm just happy that cinematography is going to be on the telecast. Like, I don't know why. I just feel like that's an award that if you like these awards and you like movies and movie history, you think about a lot. And it's notable to me that so many directors came out and were mad about this because directors lean on cinematographers the way that wives lean on husbands and husbands lean on wives.

You know what I mean? It is truly a partnership when you're making a movie. So anyway, let's go to Stock Up, Stock Down. If it goes bust, you can make 10 to 1, even 20 to 1 return. And it's already slowly going bust. I mean, on Sunday night, the WGA has happened. This is yet another Guild Awards show. the final Guild Awards show, really. And at this point, why do we even try to predict anything?

We talked a little bit about what we thought was going to happen, and we were wrong on both counts. There were, of course, two primary awards for film at the WGAs. The first was for Best Original Screenplay, which went to 8th grade, which of course is not nominated for an Oscar. So that's fascinating. We should probably note that there were a couple of films that were not eligible for Best Original Screenplay because of some arcane rules that the Writers Guild has, which let 8th grade, I guess, exist in this category. Notably, the favorite was disqualified. The favorite is the front runner to win best original screenplay at the Oscars. I think you can make the case that this didn't really

matter that much aside from a great Bo Burnham moment. Bo Burnham, who accepted the award, said to the other nominees in the category, have fun at the Oscars, losers. How is this happening? Which kind of sums up Bo Burnham's journey through the awards campaign of his first film. What did you make of the eighth grade win? And do you think that there's any upside or downside to the outcome here? Well, there's not because it's not nominated for the Oscars. So what are we supposed to do? Well, I did see a handful of people last night reflecting upon the fact that this means that Green Book's probably not going to win. That if Green Book is not getting support in a category like this where the favorite is not present,

then that eliminates Green Book. I mean, then these people have never watched the Oscars and had their hearts ripped out. I mean, like, good luck. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think we should talk about adapted screenplay as well, which went to Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which is not at all the favorite for screenplay Oscar.

I'm just taking these together as like people having a little fun at their Guild Awards. You know, I work with writers a lot. Once upon a time, I was one. They like to have their own moment. They like to have their own mark on the world. And it's this late in the voting season, so it kind of affects Oscar voting, but not really. It's too late to change your ballot, I would say. I mean, people had one day to change their ballot, essentially. I'm kind of taking these together as like an expression of self and individuality rather than, and also as an opportunity to say, this is probably not how it's going to shake out at the Oscars.

So we'll give awards to two people we really like, which is great. There were a lot of sad shots of Bradley Cooper at this award show. One more loss for Bradley Cooper sitting in the front row of the WJS. It's a really, really tough beat for A Star is Born. Can You Ever Forgive Me? I thought it was cool that Nicole Holofcener got an award. We talked about her last week. She probably should have gotten these awards for Lovely and Amazing or Please Give or any of the other number of wonderful original screenplays that she's written over the years. Can You Ever Forgive Me is solid. I'm very interested in Mariel Heller's career and the films she makes in the future. She has acquired an interesting and really strong reputation in a short period of time. There was a great interview

with Jane Curtin in The New Yorker this weekend, and she talked a lot about the difference between Mariel Heller's set and the set that sets she's been on in the past. And there was a level of calm and clarity that she described working on Can You past. And there is a level of calm and clarity that she described working on Can You Ever Forgive Me that she maybe hadn't experienced with some other filmmakers. So, you know, I don't think Can You Ever Forgive Me is going to win at the Oscars.

We'll get into that when we talk about the screenplay categories. But perhaps you're right. Perhaps writers are just going to write her and they're going to weird themselves into unlikely conclusions. We'll also talk about this because we should talk about the guilds more broadly, but I don't mind the guilds using their guild awards as a place to just honor

people that they really like or a specific work that means something to them, even if it isn't going to win the big Oscar. There's obviously some logical inconsistency once you think about how people vote for the guilds and then vote for the Oscars. Many of the same peopleitzers but then there's like the pen faulkner awards and like do the smaller awards in other categories ever just go like fuck it we're going weird we're going unlikely we're going unpredictable i feel like it's not as not as common i just you never even hear about them i guess but there are kind of in the literary world there are smaller awards there's like uh know, emerging writers or many kind of smaller prizes because like different bodies want to reward different people and have their moment

in the sun. And they do tend to be sprinkled out. If you could have a Man Booker prize or WGA original screenplay prize, which would you take? Man Booker. Okay. I had a feeling that's where you were going. Also just because then you have a literal book and then it goes on the, it's a sticker on the book. And so lots of people know. I feel like Man Booker has kind of broader recognition at the end. Then the Writers Guild of America, one of the strongest and longest running unions we have. Just in terms of people knowing that I won an award,

just encountering it in the wild, they're more likely to do that with a book than on my Wikipedia page. Well, you've failed this personality test. Thank you, Amanda. an award just encountering it in the wild, they're more likely to do that with a book than on my Wikipedia page. Well, you've failed this personality test. Thank you, Amanda. You mentioned the other guilds. I thought that this was kind of a perfect ending to guild season because if we just run very quickly through a handful of these guilds, we can identify the top prizes that they've given out. The Producers Guild gave their prize to Green Book when that happened. I thought, huh, Green Book definitely could win.

A lot of PGA winners, eight of the last 10 went on to win Best Picture. DGAs, Roma. I still think Alfonso Cuaron's probably going to win Best Director. It's not that crazy, but I thought this would push us towards the Roma consensus. Then the SAG Awards happened. Black Panther. I saw two people last night that are very trusted awards insiders saying that this race is Roma versus Black Panther right now, which is fascinating. And the WG has happened. We've

got eighth grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me? I don't think either of those films are winning best picture because neither of them are even nominated for best picture. And the Ace Awards we had a couple of weeks ago, Bohemian Rhapsody and the favorite one there, the Golden Globes, of course, was Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book. We've had just this messy array of choices from all of the guilds and all these other bodies. I've never seen a year in which the critical consensus, the sort of critics prizes were less considered. You know, there's not, there's very often not tons of crossover between say, New York Film Critics Circle, LA Film Critics Circle, you know, the National Board. Those bodies sometimes dictate a broader critical insight into what movies are good and not good, sometimes for better, sometimes for worse. But this year,

that's not working out well. Shout out to Ethan Hawke, perhaps the most prized actor in the whole group. He's not here for the Oscars. So this is a very strange collection. I personally, in my life of following this, perhaps to a sad detrimental effect on my personal life, have never seen something so dispersed. And it's got me questioning what we're doing this for. And are we now at a place where there are too many award shows, there's too much consciousness about these award shows,

and it is creating a kind of, I don't know, distortion effect, you know, a field where we don't really understand what it is we're trying to say about what's good about movies. Well, to me, that's exciting. And that's actually the fun part. You know, if we could take away the whining about the telecast, and I think also... We just whined for 30 minutes. Yeah, no, and we're part of it. But so there has been a lot of negativity around this awards

season. And there are always a couple nominees that we feel not great about in this case it's been particularly gnarly because of green book and bohemian rhapsody and all of the background on bohemian rhapsody in particular but let me just set the scene for you if at the golden globes the favorite wins instead of Green Book and comedy. And A Star is Born wins instead of Bohemian Rhapsody for best drama. And then the guilds go as they are. So it still is dispersed, but we don't have the specter of the two movies that people don't feel great about. Kind of haunting the... How would you feel? Would you feel different?

I love a hypothetical. It's very hard to say, honestly, because it's not so much about the nature of the films that are winning these prizes. It's not, you know, we've gotten a lot of feedback in the last few months about like, why did you change your tune on Green Book? I've heard from plenty of people who were like, you guys got on this podcast very early on

and you said you liked Green Book and you found it enjoyable. You had some misgivings, but you completely have changed your tune. I don't think that necessarily the way that you and I have been you liked Green Book and you found it enjoyable. You had some misgivings, but you completely have changed your tune. I don't think that necessarily the way that you and I have been talking about Green Book is in the sort of critical mask of understanding why a movie is valuable or not valuable. It's in the awards mask. We're trying to understand where a movie fits into a broader narrative.

And I don't want the people who made Green Book to like fall off a cliff. That's not the way that I'm thinking about this stuff. It's much more about what does this say about the history of this award show? How does it fit into this broader narrative that we're trying to unpack for the last few months? And, you know, I'm not bent out of shape about Bohemian Rhapsody being bad. I just told you before we started recording, I rewatched Driving Miss Daisy this weekend. That movie is also very bad. Like bad movies win all the time.

This is not, there's, same goes for the conversation around A Star Is Born. We love A Star Is Born here. People are annoyed that we love A Star Is Born. We love A Star Is Born here. People are annoyed that we love A Star Is Born as much as we do. But people are like, well, A Star Is Born isn't that good. Well, look at the history of the Oscars. There's tons of movies that aren't that good that win all the time. To me, I think if what you said had happened happened, which is that we got A Star Is Born in the favor, two movies we like a lot more, it would have just been the same level of confusion and the same level of distortion that i'm talking about so like if green book wins we're gonna we're gonna rend our garments we're gonna be like oh my god we're gonna yell on sunday night but ultimately

i'm more concerned with kind of like the bigger existential question of doing all of this stuff in public makes it harder and harder to understand what the point of doing this is well it's to decide what we think is best. And it would be confusing, but it would be a different type of confusion. I don't think it would be as stressful and as heated and as hurtful to a lot of people if we were talking about A Star Is Born and The Favorite and as kind of the front runners. So I have, okay, maybe here's a clear way to answer what you're saying that is addressing your question more head on. We would have just found more troubling things about A Star Is Born. Like the minute that something gets under the hot spotlight, we start to interrogate it in a way that we don't interrogate something.

I don't know. Like Black Klansman is a fascinating movie that I like, but I think has some problems. I think it has some structural problems. I think there's some things about it that I don't love. It's never been the front runner in any of these races. And Spike is obviously way overlooked in the history of his career and has probably made five or six movies that should have been nominated for Best Picture, Best Director. He's like a world historical filmmaker.

But since it's not a front runner, we're not really examining how the third act is super messy and confusing. And we probably would be doing that if it was in that space. Likewise, A Star is Born. There have been a handful of weird commentaries about the idea of Ali's agency that I never really bought into, but maybe that noise would get a lot noisier if it was clear that a star is born was out front. So I think that that's ultimately what we lost, but it wouldn't change how I feel in the broader sense of the question.

Yeah. And so you bring a good point, which is that maybe we can't talk about this civilly and that has a lot to do with social media and the way that we have all conversations now. And I think you're probably right. I am just as cynical as you on that. But to the larger idea of being able to talk about what makes a good movie good, that to me is kind of the point of the Oscars. That's what's exciting.

And I kind of like the idea in a perfect world, you would have the best case versions of all different types of movies, and we would talk about what we value. And I do think that talking about whether Ali's agency is portrayed a certain way in Star is Born is different than the behind-the-scenes stuff with Bohemian Rhapsody. You're right. And it makes people feel a different way, and you're suddenly talking about art and how we represent women and pop music and the choices that we make when you make a movie or when we watch a movie.

And that, to me, is the point. That's why we're all doing this, because we like movies and we like being able to talk about them. And in my ideal perfect world, that is far more interesting than being like, OK, well, Roma won another award and Roma won another award and everyone in lockstep for four months. I think at some point we talk about this because we're all interested and we see things differently and we want to talk about them. Now, you're right.

We can't create a safe place where everyone can talk about them with respect. And we can't create a place where the best movie is going to win because, you know, humans are imperfect and it's never worked out in history. But it doesn't bug me that there's been inconsistency. Inconsistency is not the problem. To me, it's interesting and it allows for a lot of different conversations. I wish that we could have them in better ways. And I wish sometimes that we could have them with better material.

But I think being able to talk about like what makes a good movie is the point. I agree with you. And I'm certainly not advocating for a civil discourse. I don't think that that necessarily is the way to get the answer that we're seeking. What I am trying to say is we use the word good a lot and what good is and what that valence really is, is impossible to define. And the fact that the Academy has been trying so hard to change up its membership because it's got this group of people that think something is good and they don't want that to be the version of good that they put out in the world anymore is the clearest sign that we have that this thing, and it seems sweeping,

but it is true, is in a crisis. It is one of the longest standing American institutions that is publicly understood that doesn't know what it is anymore. And certainly the fact that I'm following it this closely is one of the reasons why I'm asking myself all these stupid questions. But I find something particularly interesting this year. Maybe it's because ultimately, and maybe we can also just decide on this next Sunday. Maybe this just wasn't a great year for movies. And if it wasn't, is that why there's this dispersal? I often feel that every year that there are a lot of movies that I'm excited and interested in are the years that it's not a good year for movies.

And it's because there's like not a consensus among or there's not enough overlap of consensus among the Academy voters and also the critics who like loved First Reformed so much, which is all I will say about that body of people. But I don't think it was a bad year. I think it's a really interesting year. And I think it's obviously messy that we have to remake the Academy. It's obviously messy that there is one generation that feels one way and a younger generation that sees another thing in movies. That's also life that's happening across the world in every single type of institution or interaction that we have. And movies aren't just movies. Movies reflect our lives and what we want to see in ourselves and how we see the world. And many people, especially you and I, use them to have those larger conversations about what we see in the world. And I actually don't see the problem in it. I think it's exciting. And I think it's great that more people get to talk about it. And I'm glad that we're not just all voting for Roma or First Reformed or whatever, because those weren't the movie. I mean, Roma was a movie that meant a lot

to me, but so often consensus means a certain group of people have decided that this is good. And it's exciting that other things are in the mix. It is clear to me now your vote is going to Bohemian Rhapsody, Amanda. We're going to break down every single race at the Oscars. But before we do that, let's hear a quick word from our sponsor. Today's episode of The Big Picture is brought to you by Bud Light. Did you know not all alcohol products are required to list their ingredients? That was news to me. Bud Light is changing the game. They believe that we deserve to know our beer's ingredients, so they put an ingredients label right on their packaging. Bud Light, brewed with hops, barley, water, and rice. No corn syrup, no preservatives, and no artificial flavors.

Find out what ingredients are in your beer. Bud Light. Enjoy responsibly. AB Bud Light Beer, St. Louis, Missouri. Let's go to the big race. Well, mama, look at me now i'm a star amanda the big race is every race we're doing every race i will try not to belabor this but we're going to read the nominees of every category and then we're going to somewhat quickly dictate who we think is going to win not who we want to win we can say who we want to win but this is really about who we think is going to win these are predictions you ready i'm ready we're going to start with visual effects which is your favorite category historically you've long tracked this category and understood the ways i love it

when they use computers instead of real life in movies wow this is terrible uh visual effects the nominees are avengers infinity war christopher robin first man ready player one and solo a star are Avengers Infinity War, Christopher Robin, First Man, Ready Player One, and Solo, A Star Wars Story. This is one of the few, I think, wholly predictable categories in the entire Oscars. Who are you going with? Avengers Infinity War. Yes. This shall be a Marvel Oscar. It shall be a masculine Oscar. Whatever. I barely remember what happened in this movie, but it won four awards at the Visual Effects Guild. Here's my take on Avengers Infinity War. Very good. I'm a big fan. It's just something I've said many times on this podcast. I'm going to continue to say it. I think as event movies go, it actually did a lot of good things. Remember when you just kind of kept dramatically snapping at me in a meeting like I was supposed to get the reference and I didn't

get the reference? That's my review of Avengers Infinity War. Love to snap like Thanos. Let's go to makeup and hairstyle, which once upon a time was not going to be appearing on the telecast and now is appearing on the telecast. Let me ask you a question. Have you seen Border? No. Border is sort of like the Scandinavian, the wife, you know, or maybe the wife is the Scandinavian, the wife. Border is a very troubling movie about trolls, literally trolls. You should seek that out. I'm surprised it wasn't nominated for best foreign film, but is nominated in this category. The other nominees in this category, there's often only just three in this category, are Border Mary, Queen of Scots, and Vice. This also feels like a fairly easy choice. What are you going with? Vice. That is

also the right choice. Yeah. So is this how it's going to go where you just tell me whether my picks are right or not right as the all-knowing? Oh, okay. Tell you what. No, this is good good no no no that's not i wanted to say that i don't agree with that approach no this podcast is happening in real time and we will change the approach now you will read the next category and i will tell you what i'm thinking okay do we need to explain vice it's because people like it and it's one of all the guilds it's the most seen of all these movies it's one every guild the the makeup team that worked on that film is hugely respected. Adam McKay has been going out

of his way to lobby for them for weeks and weeks. So yeah, I just don't think it's Greg Canham. Greg Canham is one of the great

makeup artists in American film. Okay. So we're going to short films. Can you ask me this one? Because I actually have a good answer for this one. Already?

You're just turning the tables here. And then we'll switch. Okay. And then we'll switch. Animated short film. There are five nominees. They are Animal Behavior, Bao, Late Afternoon, One Small Step, and Weekends. Amanda, what is your choice? I'm going with Bao. Yes, okay. Because I think, not to jump ahead or spoil anything,

but Pixar isn't going to have the night that it might want to have, but I do think as a result, it will get a consolation prize with bow bow of course is dome a she and Becky Neiman Cobb's short film that appeared before Incredibles 2 it is as

is customary the Pixar short film of the year that is nominated for best animated short there's almost always one there it often wins not always last year of course Kobe Bryant won

in this category for your basketball which is a film i would not recommend keep it moving uh it's about and i think it's about for a couple of reasons one about lovely lovely film um it it does do that thing that all of these films do which is the sort of wistful poignance of life in an eight minute package you know there's something it's always reflecting on what life was like when you were eight and what you could taste or what you could feel or what you could see

or what you could hear. That's kind of Pixar's brand writ large. But in particular, this category tends to events that if Bow doesn't win, I'll be shocked. It's definitely also the most widely seen of these, which I think especially for short films makes a big difference.

Definitely helps. Okay. Live action short. Have you watched these Definitely helps. Okay. Live action short. Have you watched these? No. Okay. So I have watched a few of them. This is a really bleak category.

Really bleak. And I don't know that I could recommend any of these movies to real people. In particular, there's some real complications around the film Detainment, which I don't really want to get into because we could be here for a while. My vote is Marguerite. I think that's when I was doing my research, everyone seemed to think that that was the least depressing and therefore the most likely to succeed.

Yeah. Both this and in the documentary short category we'll talk about, it feels like the Oscars is trapped in 1994 when the only kind of film you could get across the line in doc categories or even in best picture were sort of important films with big themes and a kind of grave quality about them. And it's interesting that those branches of the Academy are still operating in a way that say the Oscars isn't

anymore because it nominates stuff like Black Panther and Black Klansman. Like that probably was not possible in the Academy 10 years ago, but the fact that detainment and mother and skin and these sort of like really dark and upsetting and stern pieces about the problems of our lifestyles in 2019 are still happening in these categories. It says a lot about what has changed in the academy and what is not changing. I suppose it also says something

about how to get people's attention in a short amount of time and to feel important in a short amount of time. You can just kind of see people thinking, okay, was they tackled a big subject versus this was a delightful 10 minute you know experience that i had um and people do tend to revert to capital i important and not in animated though and that's that is that's the thing that's interesting about this i mean it is truly about and maybe they maybe the academy sees animated films much like you do which is that they don't truly respect them. They only respect them when they're taking

people back, when they're transporting them to their youth, as opposed to trying to say something common and now and important. One of the reasons why I advocate so hard for Spider-Verse is even though it's a movie about multiple spider men and women and pigs. There are spider pigs? There's a spider pig. Think about watching it just think about it it is a movie that is trying to say something real I think about what it means

to live in America in 2019 just me and also in multi-dimensions shall we go to documentary short yes do you watch these

no but I read about them okay also part of it was that I was I honestly was looking this weekend of can I go

and because they do from time to time release these every year as part of a program, but you know what? They're not easy to see. Most of them are just before Oscars weekend. And some of them are on YouTube. Some of them aren't it's they're really not easy to see. They're not. I mean, you can, there's only a handful of theaters that are showing them. It's done a pretty good bit of business though. The, the shorts this year have made almost $2 dollars at the box office which is pretty impressive but they're all sort of combined so it's a big long sit but um i have watched everyone in this category and uh similar similar scenario there there is a kind of a graveness a darkness around some of these ideas

um i think in particular if i had to recommend one i would recommend a night at the garden for a couple of reasons you can see it on vimeo right now. It's just eight minutes long. It is essentially just an archival footage of a rally that happened in Madison Square Garden in 1939 that was fundamentally a Nazi white power rally in which in the pre-World War II America, 10,000 people gathered at Madison Square Garden and saluted Hitler. And it's a very bracing and upsetting movie that is very worth checking out. And it's very clear what kind of connections it's drawing to modern day and the kind of story that it's trying to tell, even though there's virtually no dialogue, there's just a little bit of captured speech from the event. These other films are much different. They're much longer. They're all 25 minutes and 35 minutes and 40 minutes. Similarly serious. I watched Black

Sheep last night, which I think is my pick to win this award. Is that your pick as well? I went with period, end of sentence. Okay. So period, end of sentence, and also end game people can find on Netflix right now. A Night at the Garden you can find on Vimeo. And Black Sheep and Lifeboat are both available on YouTube via The Guardian and The New Yorker. Why did you choose Period End of Sentence? For the same reasoning of it seems that it was slightly less dour than the others. And also... This is literally about menstruation.

Yeah, well, this is the other thing. If we're fast-forwarding a bit, but I don't think RBG is going to win the documentary. And I think that there's always one female empowerment one that everyone wants to vote for. And so if you don't vote for it in the feature category, maybe they throw someone a bone. That's interesting. I'm going with Black Sheep purely because of its filmmaking style.

The movie I thought of most when I was watching it was Moonlight. It's impressionistic and there's a lot of reenactment. It is largely just a head-on camera interview with the subject of the film, a young black English guy. And everything that happens around him when he talks about his youth

just felt like Moonlight. And that has become code for a kind of like this movie matters. And it is all about feeling and deepness about living in the world. But period, end of sentence is a Netflix film. They have a very strong legacy in this category. They won for The White Helmets a couple of years ago. And who knows? I mean, this is often an unpredictable group, so we'll see what happens. What's next? Next is sound mixing. Should I read the nominees? Please. Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, and A Star is Born.

Great category. Interesting craft sound mixing. My vote goes to Bohemian Rhapsody. I also picked Bohemian Rhapsody. This should be A Star is Born. Yes. No question to me that it should be A Star is Born. You can make a case for Black Panther.

I think Black Panther is running second in the race right now. But Bohemian Rhapsody won at the Sound Awards, and this just feels inevitable, right? That's the same reason I picked it, yes. And similarly, the nominated team behind Bohemian Rhapsody, which is led by Paul Massey, is one of the best in the world, and Paul Massey has been nominated for seven Oscars. There's a kind of inevitability factor going on with this movie. So yeah, I think it will be Bohemian Rhapsody. Sound editing. Here are the nominees. Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, and Roma. What say you?

I'm going with A Quiet Place. This is a tricky category. Yeah, it won at the motion picture sound editors. And First Man has been bandied around in both sound categories as like, oh, maybe First Man will actually get some respect. And First Man's getting no respect. With all respect to you and your burgeoning love for First Man which is a movie that I also thought

was very good but it has just not been on the Oscars radar at all I chose First Man and maybe I'm having some second thoughts hearing you lightly undermine my choice no no no I think that that's why we're doing this and it's important to kind of figure it out

A Quiet Place made a lot of people very happy it didn't get that big big nomination. There's no best popular Oscar. It's not really nominated in very many categories here. So this could be a good place for it to win. As you said, I do have a burgeoning love affair with First Man? And there's a lot of reasons we talked about it quite a bit over this show over the last few months, when it was released, the way it was released, the fact that it came after two huge movie events, the fact that it's a very quiet film. There are a number of different reasons why. The sound editing in particular is quite impressive, and this would be a credible place for it to be acknowledged. Nevertheless, maybe you're right. Maybe it should be shut out so that it can become truly an Oscar travesty. That's how it becomes an Oscar travesty, is for it to get no love whatsoever. I would love for that to happen for you. Okay, let's go to the next category.

Okay, costume design. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favorite, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mary Queen of Scots. I had Ruth Carter on the show last week, and I'm voting for Ruth Carter in her third nomination. I'm a little worried about this category, though. What are you going with? I also picked Ruth Carter for two reasons.

Number one, I think she really has gotten a lot of recognition, which is not usual for costume designers that you know people by name. And obviously, she did great work also. I'm picking her, and also I would vote for her. But the other thing is that Sandy Powell is nominated twice in this category for the favorite and for Mary Poppins Returns. And this actually happens a lot in this category. Yeah, because it's always Sandy Powell. Yeah, exactly.

This is Sandy Powell's 13th and 14th nomination. So in one sense, you could see her finally winning. But again, I think she's going to cancel herself out. She's won three times. Oh out she's won three times oh she's won three times so this is one of those things where like Sandy Powell is the Meryl Streep of the

costume design category and if she's nominated you should be concerned like you should be afraid that she'll win because she's won for films that are considered not great films

but she's putting her own vote maybe I think that the Mary Poppins Returns is sort of the Erin Brockovich to the traffic of the favorite. You know, there's like the favorite is so the consensus in so many of these crafts categories that I feel like a lot of people are just going to see the favorite in check, which is something we'll keep talking about as we go through the rest of these categories.

I hope it's Ruth Carter. I think that there is more invention in the Black Panther costumes than in any of these other categories. And there is something unique about elevating and integrating the idea of African history with superhero mythology that is just so impressive. The colors and the shapes and the tactile nature of those costumes is amazing. I hope she wins. I think she's going to win. We'll see. Next category? Production design. So the nominees for production design are Black Panther, The Favorite, man mary poppins returns and roma what do you got i went with the favorite here for the checkbox situation same and also because it is that traditional costume drama palaces wigs beautiful set pieces and by the way it's beautifully done it is it really it deserves it but i do think that this is just a really classic the favorite it's where

it's kind of traditional aspects of the favorite kick in for the Oscars I do also think it's nominated the favorite has been nominated so many times that people just be like oh yeah I liked it I had the exact same take which is that I think people will just see this and they'll be like this is like Barry Lyndon and just check it um there is a case for Hannah Beachler uh who was the production designer of Black Panther much like Ruth Carter if for Hannah Beachler, who was the production designer of Black Panther, much like Ruth Carter. If either Hannah Beachler or Ruth wins, it'll be the first time an African American woman has won in a non-acting category at the Oscars in 30 years. This is the first time an African American woman's been nominated in this category ever in the history of the Oscars.

So if the Oscars wants to make history kind of unknowingly, you could see this happening. You know know I think it's not out of the question that Mary Poppins Returns competes in this category too um we'll just have to wait and see what's the next category the next category is film editing Black Klansman Bohemian Rhapsody The Favorite Green Book and Vice so Bohemian Rhapsody won at the Editor's Awards know, potentially new heights in Vice. Some are saying not new heights. I'm really fond of what Hank Corwin does. He's also been winning a couple of awards on the margins in the last few weeks too that indicate that there's a lot of love for what he has done on these last couple of films. So I'm going Hank Corwin.

What did you go with? I went with The Favorite. Here's why. It also won at the Ace Awards. It did. It won in comedy. It did. And it defeated Vice in comedy it did

and i don't know i'm trying to give the editor some credit here as practical people who are not going to pick bohemian rhapsody even though it did win in best drama and again that rationale of the favorite was just nominated in so many technical categories and people really like it plus it's win at the ace Awards. Just, I kind of think the box will be checked. So, you know, the nominee in that category, there is Yorgos Mavrop Saridis,

who is the editor of all of Yorgos Lanthimos' films. And Hank Corwin is a much more known name. Here are some of the movies that Hank Corwin has edited. Vice, The Big Short, The Tree of Life,

The New World, The Legend of Bagger Vance, Snow Falling on Cedars, The Horse Whisperer, U-Turn, Nixon, Natural Born Killers. He also worked on Moneyball. He worked on JFK. He made his bones with Oliver Stone. And I think that this is essentially a like, you did it, Hank.

You crossed the finish line. That's my gut. Could be wrong. We'll see what happens. I think it's possible that the favorite wins. It's very possible that Bohemian Rhapsody wins

for the same reason it won that Ace Award, which is the shoot was a mess and they did the very best they could with the footage that they had. And it was a Herculean effort just to get this movie

out into the world. And so they did it and it made $900 million. Congratulations to the editors of that film. Let's go to cinematography. As I said, I'm delighted this will be on television.

Here are the nominees. Cold War, Lucas Zoll, The Favorite, Robbie Ryan, Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel, Roma, Alfonso Cuaron, and A Star is Born, Matthew Libetique. I picked Alfonso Cuaron. As did I.

So this is, of course, Alfonso Cuaron's first film, Not With Chivo, his cinematographer of choice. I guess this is fine if this wins. What would you pick? Well, I love what Matthew Libetique did in this movie. And it's at the risk of just making this about A Star Is Born all the time. The colors and the definition and the light and the dark in A Star Is Born, I think is incredible. And it was an inspired choice by Bradley Cooper to bring him on board. But I would choose Cold War too.

I just think Pavel Pavlikovsky and Lucas Zal figured something out. This contrasty black and white style that they've invented that is just so unique. And I love watching that movie. And that movie is also 88 minutes, which is so nice. It's so wonderful. I also went with Cuaron, but I did wonder whether Lucas Zal was a sleeper here. He's definitely a dark horse. Especially just because the Academy really does seem to like Cold War, as do we.

So that's great. I mean, I think Pawlikowski's nomination indicates exactly what you're saying. There is definitely strong support for this movie. And also, it's an Amazon movie, and they have made a strong push for Lucas Zal. There have been a number of events that Amazon has had to support Zal's nomination. They really think he has a chance to win. I think Cuarón's going to win, but keep an has had to support Zal's nomination. They really think he has a chance to win. I think Cuaron's going to win,

but keep an eye out on Lucas Zal if you're trying to put some cash down. Original score, Black Panther, Ludwig Joransson, Black Klansman,

Terrence Blanchard, If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Bertel, Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat, Mary Poppins Returns, Mark Shaman. What do you got?

I'm going with Nicholas Brattel me too and number one because that spur is phenomenal but also because you've talked about this a lot one good thing always happens one good thing that we like don't think is likely or we don't think they'll have a good taste or there's always one thing we're like, oh, wow, that is deserving. That's the right pick. And this is my one good thing happens. You know, last year I went 21 of 24 in my picks and I felt really good about that. And I think I got a couple of things wrong because in the craft categories I went and ultimately in Best Picture, I went with hopeful choices rather than sensible choices. And I'm not saying 24 of 24 was in play necessarily,

but I felt really good about most of the picks I made. And there were just a handful, particularly Get Out for Best Picture. I was like, man, it would just be really cool if this happens. And I'd love to write about it. I'd love to podcast about it. I'd love to just be a part of this moment. This is a much smaller version of that, but If Beale Street Could Talk feels like the most listened to of all of these scores. It feels like not just the one that we paid the most attention to while the film was happening, and it feels the most interwoven into a Beale Street talk, but it's also the one that I think has had a second life on Spotify that I think people are just spending time with it. Now, maybe I'm using poor evidence on Twitter to acknowledge that. Nevertheless, and I think if Black Panther won and Ludwig Nieransson won,

who has, of course, also worked so closely with Childish Gambino and just won a Grammy a couple of weeks ago, I think if he won, it wouldn't shock me. I think that's certainly plausible. I would also be happy if Terrence Blanchard won for Black Klansman. Terrence Blanchard has been writing film scores for Spike Lee for many years. He falls into that same category as someone like Ruth Carter, who has been working in this industry for a long time and made a lot of great work. But Nicholas Bertel would be nice. Let's go to original song. I know where we're both going with this one,

but I do think there is some intrigue here. Yeah. Here are the nominees. All the Stars, Black Panther, I'll Fight, RBG, lol. The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns, which will be performed by Bette Midler on this telecast. Shallow, A Star is Born, and When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. I would encourage

people to go to TheWinger.com to read Adam Naiman's piece about When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings in our Make the Case series. Nevertheless, that song is not winning in this category, nor is I'll Fight, which will be sung by Jennifer Hudson during the telecast, nor will The Place Where Lost Things Go. I have a pretty good feeling of what you picked here. What'd you pick, Amanda? I went with Shallow. Yes, as did I. So...

But we're probably wrong. I feel like all the stars can win. Yes, it absolutely can win. And if it does win, it will truly be the capper on the pain cave that is the 2019 awards campaign for Bradley Cooper. Yeah. It was reported this weekend that Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga will be singing Shallow at the Oscars, but as Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper.

I was about to say Bradley Cooper's decision to sing this as Bradley Cooper is when I knew in my heart that all the stars would win. And like, that is just kind of how karma is working this year. Now, I still did pick Shallow. I think just mathematically, it's won everything. It will probably win. And like, that is just kind of how karma is working this year. Now I still did pick Shallow. I think just mathematically it's won everything. It will probably win if only because they need to get Lady Gaga on the stage somehow. They're not that stupid though. Maybe they are. I don't know. I don't know. I mean, Kendrick Lamar and SZA are very popular, beloved figures, much awarded throughout their industry. This has been a trying time for A Star is Born.

I'm going with Shallow, but it is with serious reservations. I'm going to be really mad when we both get this one wrong. It's going to be tough. Yeah. Let's go to Best Documentary Feature. Okay. The nominees are Free Solo, Hail County This Morning, This Evening, Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and S fathers and sons and your beloved RBG. That's rude.

That's rude. I love Ruth Bader Ginsburg, okay? She's an important American. What do you got? I'm going free solo. Me as well. Just seems like it's won everything. It does seem like it's won everything.

It feels inevitable. And when something like this feels inevitable, be careful. Be careful. Watch out for fathers and sons. That's the kind of movie that has never won anything throughout this race. And then all of a sudden the documentary group is like, it's actually this one. The documentary group is in that similar mold as the shorts group in that it's mercurial and hard to define. And it's a much smaller group than the bulk of these. And so that's how it got into this category in the first place. And we'll see. I mean, the case for Free Solo and RBG is very clear. A lot of people have seen these movies and a lot of people saw them in movie theaters, which is rare. That doesn't

always mean it's going to win Best Documentary. In fact, the most popular film doesn't always win in this category. That's true. Two of them didn't even get nominated. Two of them didn't even get nominated. So this will be an interesting one to see. I do think it'll be Free Solo. If you want to hear more about Free Solo, check out the episode of this show that I did with Chai Vasarely and Jimmy Chin, the co-directors. Foreign language film.

You want to read the nominees? I'd love to. Capernaum from Lebanon, Cold War, Poland, Never Look Away from Germany, Roma from Mexico, and Shoplifters from Japan. Money in the Bank.

It's got to be Roma. Can I just, this is a rude note, but I made little notes to myself. I did also pick Roma and what I wrote this morning for my coffee apparently was like they watched any other movies. Who's they? The voters. It's so rude. I can't even believe how rude that was, but they didn't have any burning. Yeah, that was bad. Yeah. So I don't know why I need to have total respect.

I got to say, I recently saw Birds of Passage, the Colombian shortlisted film. And that movie is amazing. If you haven't seen Birds of Passage, I got to recommend it. It just came out in theaters this weekend in very limited run in New York and Los Angeles. That's an incredible movie.

And that movie, not that I would necessarily want to take anything away from here, maybe never look away, but yeah, there's a handful of films as always internationally that are not nominated. That should be shoplifters being here is great. It's very uncommon for a film like that to get acknowledged by the Academy that the, the films from Asia are not often represented in the way that they should be historically. So it's nice that this is here. If it's not Roma, I'll fall down a staircase. Well, let me ask you, does Cold War have a sleeper chance? Maybe, maybe. And if it does, see how much crazy tweeting there is about how Roma's not winning Best Picture and how we've got a Bohemian Rhapsody situation imminent.

Wouldn't it make, it would make no sense, which means it would make a ton of Oscar sense for Cold War to win Foreign Language and then Roma to win Best Picture. Yes. When you look back at the Wikipedia page of the 91st Oscars 10 years from now, you'll be like, of course this happened. These people are fucking idiots. I just, I don't know. Like if it's not Roma, I'll just, I'll fall down a staircase. Like I said. I agree. I also picked Roma, but you know, watch Shoplifters. It's transcendent. It is very good. Animated feature. You want me to read them so you can just do your thing? Yes. Okay. I good. Animated feature. You want me to read them so you can just do your thing? Yes. Okay.

I've already done it once. Sorry, it's fine. Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse. Did you see Ralph Breaks the Internet?

No, I haven't seen it. I actually have seen Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs. I've seen two out of five. Ralph Breaks the Internet is pretty good. I don't know. I watched the trailer

and all the Disney princesses are yelling at each other and I like commentary, but it's fine. I saw the know. I watched the trailer and all the Disney princesses are yelling at each other and I like commentary, but it's fine. I saw the trailer. I got it. Well, you work on the internet and it's a pretty good commentary on what it's like to work on the internet. There are a lot of jokes about commentary. It's bad. Pretty much. Yeah. Thank you. Well, it's not that you necessarily would learn something, but you would feel something that you identify with much the same way that I felt something I identified with with Spider-Man

Into the Spider-Verse which is my pick okay maybe I'll watch this on an airplane sometime just watch it in a theater like an adult that's literally

not what adults do adults go to see movies with real people and children go to cartoons that's my beef that's just alright the long-standing

worst take in the history of this podcast okay should we go to the next category wait what are you picking I'm also picking Spider-Man oh wow I'll be That's my beef. That's just the longstanding worst take in the history of this podcast. Should we go to the next category? Wait, what are you picking? I'm also picking Spider-Man. Oh, wow.

I'll be, I, and can I just, I'll make a pledge to you. The disrespect, yeah. When Spider-Man wins, I will say congratulations, Sean, and I'll be nice. That's what? I don't care about that. That doesn't mean anything to me. I'm not looking for nice. I'm looking, I'm proselytizing for a reason. Okay.

Best adapted screenplay. The nominees are The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel and Ethan Coen, Black Klansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmot, and Spike Lee. Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, and Jeff Witte. If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins. A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fedders. Who'd you choose? I'm going with Black

Klansman here. I am as well. Because of the last nominee, the last name that you read, which is Spike Lee. Yes. And I think that people would like to see Spike Lee win an Oscar. This is a tricky category. Okay. It could go wrong. I also chose Black Klansman. I think that these nominees are interesting. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs really threw me for a loop when it was nominated. I don't think it's winning. The Coens have a bunch of Oscars. They're good.

But can you ever forgive me winning at the WGAs? Plus the power of A Star is Born and the fact that it also is not really going to be acknowledged otherwise in any of these categories, especially if Shallow doesn't win. I don't know. Something doesn't feel right. I don't think Barry Jenkins is going to win because he's already won in this category for Moonlight.

Otherwise, this feels more unpredictable to me than I initially had thought it would be. So I also feel uneasy. And can we talk this out? Yeah. Because from here on out, it's the big categories. We've been talking a lot about them. And, you know, we're in the last week. And you and I last year did a thing where we were where

we decided that get out was going to win best picture and it was just because we were bored and feeling stress and feeling all the vibes and I sat there this morning looking at screenplay both categories and being like should I should I get frisky here and I'm choosing not to get frisky I'm choosing to hold the line because we learned our lesson last year. But I agree with you that something could go. I've got a tingling sensation here with this category. Yes, it might just be that the Oscars have been a shit show all season.

That might be the sensation. That could be it. Okay. Original screenplay. I don't have a tingling sensation about this one. Okay. Here are the nominees. The favorite Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara,

first performed Paul Schrader, green book Nick Vallelonga, Brian Curry, and Peter Farrelly. Roma, Alfonso Cuaron, and Vice, Adam McKay. I think we both have the same one here as well. I'm going with the favorite with Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara. I am as well. There's a lot of talk about the possibility of a Green Book win. Yes, I have it highlighted here, which means should I think about this, but I didn't think about it. I don't think it's going to win. Now, this is a real famous last word situation. Okay. So by the way, when it does win, I will be mad at you for that. I will not be nice. I don't believe in jinxes and I don't believe in superstition.

Okay. I think that this is a rare case where Green Book actually got X'd out in the campaign. I think everything that happened with Nick Villalonga's tweets and the Peter Farrelly story, this is the case where people were like, not on my watch. Now, that doesn't mean Green Book won't win Best Picture. It might. But in this category in particular, the thing that was largely attacked in this film was the script and the quote-unquote reporting of the script, the sort of truth in the script. So if it's awarded here, I'm going to feel very bad and I'm not going to be happy about that.

And I don't think it's going to happen because I think good sense will prevail. Could be wrong. I still think that screenplay is a category that rewards movies that won't show up in the other big categories.

And I have picked the favorite several times in the technical categories because I do think people will do some box ticking. But this, I'm going with the favorite because I do not, sorry, spoiler alert, but I don't think it's going to win another award. You don't think it'll win another award after this?

No, no, after this. After this, yeah. Yeah, I agree with you. I agree with you. You know, I noted last week that the winner of this category is almost always a good movie, especially in the last few years. Get Out, Manchester by the Sea, Spotlight, Birdman, Her, Django Unchained. It's uncommon for something that we don't like for lack

of a better phrase uh to win we'll see what happens this next one is probably the to me the aside from best picture still the spiciest category to figure out and that's actress in a supporting role here are the nominees amy adams for vice marina de tavira for roma regina king if beale street could talk emma stone for the favorite and and Rachel Weisz for the favorite. Shock me, wow me, what'd you pick? I'm not going to wow you. I told you that I'm being sensible and I'm sorry to disappoint everyone. I am going with Regina King, which is both sensible and wowing to me personally because I thought that she was absolutely fantastic in this movie and is in many ways the heart of it. Those scenes in Puerto Rico are just absolutely devastating and stay with you. So I'm going with Regina King. I know that it could also be

several other people in this category. So would you like to discuss yours? Yeah, I also picked Regina King. I'm starting to come around on Rachel Weisz though. I didn't see it at all like two months ago because to me, I thought this was Emma Stone's movie. I always thought it was Emma Stone's movie. I loved what Jane Hu wrote on the site last week in the Make the Case series. I think this movie is meant to be funny first and not dramatic first. And I think Rachel Weisz is giving the best dramatic performance in the movie. And Emma Stone's giving the best comedic performance in the movie. And Olivia Colman is the centrifugal force, which is why she's nominated for Best Actress.

She's both funny and dramatic. But I got such a kick out of Emma Stone in the movie that I couldn't let myself see Rachel Weisz as a significant person in supporting actress. Over time, though, I don't know. I think the Academy really likes her a lot. Yeah. I also love Rachel Weisz. I'm on record with that. I do kind of feel like we have the Baptist shadow right now that makes her seem a little more possible than it is.

I wouldn't, I would be pleased and not totally shocked if it were Rachel Weisz. I still think that it's going to be Regina Kings. Okay. All right. We'll have to wait and see. Actor in a supporting role. I can't believe this hasn't been more controversial, this category.

I can't believe it hasn't been more shocking. It's actually quite historically odd what's happened here. So let's just go through it. The nominees are Mahershala Ali Green Book, Adam Driver, Black Klansman, Sam Elliott, A Star is Born, Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Sam Rockwell for Vice. What's your pick? Going with Mahershala. Me too. This feels like a foregone conclusion, which I find strange. He has won everything. He's won every single award.

It's just a sweep. So it just seems stupid to not pick him. People have pointed out the Mark Rylance of it all before, and it does seem possible. There are a lot of very likable actors in this category. It could be the shocker. As you pointed out, there is usually one surprise somewhere along the way.

It took like 30 years of movies for Dustin Hoffman to get an Oscar. And Mahershala Ali is going to get his second Oscar in three years.

And that is by no means a judgment on Mahershala Ali who I am a huge fan of. We talk about him on the show many times during this season. I think he's doing great work

on True Detective Season 3 which is confounding to me otherwise. But this is a lot. I mean, two out of three is a lot. And it's for a movie that is like fairly controversial, not a huge hit. I think he's very good in it,

but I wouldn't say it. I saw someone recently say that this movie expands upon the kind of depth and empathy that he sought as one in Moonlight. That this is a bigger part, and so it's a more clear evocation of his power. I don't agree with that. I think that the Moonlight performance is more interesting, more textured. I think what Barry Jenkins does with actors is pretty incredible, and that's why Regina King hopefully will win, as you noted in the last category.

I just, I find this weird that there's just no debate about this whatsoever, that it's just Mahershala Ali for Green Book. Well, I think in a lot of ways, it's kind of misplaced guilt or trying to reckon with some of the issues around Green Book. It's kind of like, well, this is all a mess, but well, there are the people who don't think it's a mess. There are people who think it's very charming.

And the movie is, we are evolving on this movie and we have evolved throughout this podcast. Truly. And thank you for going on this journey with us. But I think you and I both agree that Viggo and Mahershala have a real chemistry. There is something just charming about those two people acting together no matter what it is that they are asked to act. And maybe people want to reward that and or people want to reward the fact that none of this is Mahershala's fault and that he's an actor and we like him. And this is a vote of confidence for Mahershala.

I can kind of see it going both ways of a lot of people not thinking too hard about it, but just kind of being like, you know what? I like him. And none of this is his fault. I just this is is one of those cases where like, we spent all this time thinking about this goddamn award show. And then one of the five biggest awards happens and people are like, ah, he's nice. I'm like, what are we awarding here? It's ridiculous. He already has one. I just, I, I, for whatever, again, this is not an indictment of Mahershala Ali's skills. It's also one of those things where Adam Driver is the classic person who we have to wait until he's 68 to give him an Oscar.

And it's like, he's already doing his best work. Like he's been doing his best work in movies for four or five years now. He's definitely one of the most interesting people in American movies. Like why he was never even considered in this race. This is not his best performance by a mile. Yeah. Well,

he'll be Kylo Ren next year. I was going to say he could do a double nomination next year and we can talk about it then. I hope so. And then it's, you know, should we reward him for the indie drama or should we reward him for a blockbuster? And like, we'll talk about it forever. What's the Academy going to do when Sam Elliott dies Oscar-less? What will they do?

How will they answer for their sins? They will do a really bad montage and it will just be him for three seconds. Pulling out of that driveway. Okay. Breaking the heart of every man in America. That's what it'll be. God damn it.

This is just ridiculous. Like it's the same thing as Sam Rockwell. He just won last year. Nobody's like, well, we got to give him another one. I'm so confused by this and I don't even know

why I'm ranting about it. I love Marcia Hawley. Actor in a leading role. Do you want to read the nominees? Sure. Christian Bale for Vice. Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. Willem Dafoe at Eternity's Gate,

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Viggo Mortensen, Green Book. Brooks Barnes, who we noted earlier, who had a piece about the Oscars, had one last week as well, in which he spoke to several voters about their feelings about various races. And he said of all 20 voters that he spoke to,

every single one of them had Rami Malek for Best Actor for Bohemian Rhapsody. Yeah. I do as well. I do as actor for Bohemian Rhapsody. Yeah. I do as well. I do as well. It is not a merit vote. Absolutely not. It is a betting vote.

And we're here. You know, we're here and this is just going to happen. And it's going to be the same story. It's funny. I also, conversely, would not say that this is Viggo Mortensen's best performance, but we're going to go like 30 or 40 years and Viggo's not going to have an Oscar. Not that he should be getting it for this, but it's going to look weird when Rami Malek has it for Bohemian Rhapsody. I think that this is going to historically seem like a very strange award. Perhaps in light of Bradley Cooper being overlooked, perhaps in

light of Christian Bale being understood to be like the best living actor, which is kind of the reputation that he has right now, and then not getting his second. There's all kinds of different ways to analyze this. Rami Malek was good. I've been a fan and more of a fan of that performance than you have in the last few months. You seem dismayed. You're distraught right now. I'm mystified and annoyed

and have said everything that I have to say about it. Rami Malek seems fine. You know, I don't need to attack his performance any more than I already have. And I don't mean to attack him as a person. Sometimes you like performance and sometimes you don't. I didn't really care for it. I thought it was a little extra. I also think that the Academy loves extra performances. And the stat that you cited has been haunting me all weekend, and we'll talk a little bit more about it. But 20 out of 20 people in a sampling.

Done deal. But that's a done deal for this category, but it makes me very nervous about larger attitudes towards Bohemian Rhapsody. Because there's not even one person who is sitting there thinking, I don't know, should I? Maybe I could consider another performance. This category in particular has been the most predictable category this decade, I think. There has been so little intrigue in Best Actor for so long now. Here are the most recent winners. Gary Oldman, who was just doing a victory lap for months and months for Darkest Hour. Casey Affleck, of course, for Manchester by the Sea, who even though he was sort of

surrounded by some controversy, it was still evident that he was going to win no matter what. Leo, of course, for The Revenant. That was completely inevitable. Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln. Jean Dujardin for The Artist. It's just been a fucking snooze. And that's actually really interesting why this category has calcified while others have become more unpredictable. What do you think that's about? I don't want to stereotype or gender essentialize too much, but best actor is a category of performances that we're kind of the most familiar with over history of movies because like we make a lot of movies starring guys and they're just like about guys. And they are a large number of voters who also happen to be male and of a certain age relate to it a certain way.

And there's just kind of a lockstep in what we think a best actor performance should be. And that's kind of seems just because of the makeup, the Academy and our understanding of film history is going to be like the last one to be interrogated. If that makes any sense. I think that's right. I think there's something at least natively true about what you're saying, which is how we identify a great man's performance is clear. But I could have sworn that that was going to be the Bradley Cooper thing. I mean, that was what I wrote in October when that movie came out. I was like, wow, he just really geared himself up to hit all the tropes. He'd been nominated before. He was beloved. He took on everything here. And the

way to acknowledge that is not by giving him best director. It's by giving him best actor and saying like, you really put yourself in a position to succeed here. The one thing that's unusual about the Rami Malek thing is, I mean, this is more or less his first starring role in a movie. He's of course been the star of Mr. Robot for years. He's done some films, Papillon last year, but it's pretty rare that like a quote unquote ingenue in the male category ends up winning. So that is, I guess, a historical disturbance. But he's playing Freddie Mercury. And just like the biopic and the famous person who means a lot to a lot of other people,

Winston Churchill. In the list of names that you just read, there are several already. It's just a ready-made Oscar winner. You're right. The most recent comparison point, I guess, would be Adrian Brody for The Pianist. I mean, that's really the last time I can think of somebody who has got this same feeling. Also, a film about music in some ways. Yeah, I just, I don't know how much people are voting for Rami Malek or they're voting for Freddie Mercury. Very well put. Let's go to best actress in a

leading role. Here are the nominees. Elisa Aparicio, Roma, Glenn Close, The Wife, a film we have seen. Olivia Colman, The Favorite, Lady Gaga, A Star is Born, Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? What do you got? Our friend, The Wife, Glenn Close. Yes, I do as well. Yeah.

We have a lot of the same choices here. It's almost like we've been doing a podcast together for like five months. No chance Gaga comes through here? No, I would say the spoiler would be Coleman and not Gaga. I think it's just no chance for Gaga. With all respect to Yaya, who I think was very good in this movie, who apparently possibly is going through a breakup and just got like a LaVian Rose tattoo on her back. So there's a lot to work with in the

last couple of weeks and I wish her well. I don't know that it's going to end with the best actress Oscar next Sunday night. Do you know anything about any recent tattoos Glenn Close has gotten? No, no. Like keep a watch on her Instagram. Glenn Close is really campaigning in creative ways. So maybe it's not too late. I heard a rumor she got a It Is I, The Wife tattoo in the style of Tupac's Thug Life right across her chest. Yeah, I think it's Glenn Close. Did you see SNL this weekend by chance? No, you don't watch SNL. There was a pretty funny celebrity family feud sketch. Pretty funny, I would say. But Kate McKinnon broke out her Glenn Close and the wife impression. Wow. Banger.

Pretty impressive. She really nailed this sort of like quiet, loud, quiet, loud dynamic that goes into quote unquote great acting. She really hit it hard. I think it's Glenn Close. I'm sure she's got a jamming speech coming up. It'll be a good moment. I don't see an upset here.

Elisa Aparicio would be really interesting. It'd be very exciting. If there's a Roma sweep, this is the kind of thing that does happen from time to time where there's an acting award that you don't see coming. I would put it at about 5%, but something also a tingling sensation on that one. We've only got two awards left.

We're getting near the end of this podcast. Yes. And also near the end of this podcast. Best directing. You want to read the nominees? I'd love to. Spike Lee for Black Klansman, Pavel Pavlikovsky for Cold War, Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favorite, Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, and Adam McKay for Vice. It's got to be Cuaron, right?

Yeah, this is the lock. Done deal. Yeah. I don't even know what else to say about it. I mean, maybe we can just kind of segue directly into Best Picture because I feel like there is something connected here. Historically, it is connected, but maybe things are changing in the relationship between Best Director and Best Picture.

So the Best Picture nominees, of course, are Black Panther, Black Klansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favorite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice. I hope that is the last time I ever have to say all of those movie titles in that succession. What have you chosen for best picture? Well, as I said, I'm being sensible.

I'm being practical. I'm not getting spooked at the last minute. And so I'm going with Roma. But I think I'm wrong. I'm going with Roma, but I think I'm wrong. I'm also going with Roma. When you say you think you're wrong, what do you mean? Well, my Spidey sense which is a

reference i get even though i haven't seen the just see spider verse then you know when to use that i have seen like 18 other spider-man movies okay uh my spidey sense is that bohemian rhapsody is in the mix and i have been kind of saying this to you offline for a while and it started when I was just putting together a document trying to figure out like what are the chances for each of these movies and their preferential ballot because you know that's the kind of thing I like to do with my time and it just has a lot of cross-guild support there have been a lot of surprise wins for it people really seem to be able to separate the movie from the making of the movie. People aren't as online as we are. And then in that Brooks Barnes piece, as you mentioned, 20 out of 20 people saying they were voting for Rami Malek for best actor. That has just been looping in my head all week. I'm just, people are really open to this movie. People just really are like, it was fun

and I haven't read any articles on the internet and I'm just going to go with my gut. And does that mean that they're putting it at number one? No, but two, three, I can just see it swooping in, in the mid-levels on a lot of ballots and with preferential balloting, that's all it takes. Yeah. On TheRinger.com right now, we recorded a series of roundtable

conversations with some staffers about different Oscar narratives. A lot of the things that we've been talking about on this show for the last couple of months, a couple of things that are looking ahead to next year, maybe some potential snubs and some hindsight awards. The one that you and I spent the most time on was definitely about the idea of what the preferential balloting does and what opportunity it creates for every movie that is nominated. Like I said earlier in the show, in the history of the Oscars, I've never had less of a sense of what's going to happen here. Roma has felt inevitable for months and months and months. I would say since mid-November, it has felt like Roma's to lose, even though we have so little evidence

of Roma being an out-and-out juggernaut in this race. So I voted for Roma with that in mind, with that sort of vision, but it feels very pre-baked and you make a very compelling case for Bohemian Rhapsody. And it's so funny, I mentioned this earlier, I saw this conversation happening over the weekend about how this race is now Roma versus Bohemian Rhapsody versus Black Panther. And like, how did we get here? I never would have guessed. I thought for months and months it was Roma versus A Star is Born.

Then there was a part of me that thought, oh, maybe Roma versus The Favorite. You know, there's something going on here between the sort of high end. That would sort of be the three billboards versus the Shape of Water kind of race that we're going to have. Now we're at a place where it's Black Panther versus Bohemian Rhapsody versus Roma because the lack of consensus and the structure of the preferential balloting

means it's up for grabs. And first place votes are going to be really valuable and second place votes are going to be really valuable. More than any other year, I really want to see the voting numbers. I really, really, really want to see how close this stuff is because that would also help us understand whether they should go back to five nominees in this category or not. Because if Black Klansman gets like 11 votes and Vice gets like six votes, which is, I'm not saying that that's what's going

to happen. It just, it seems plausible given this race. And then there are five films that are bunched and they've all got 18% of the vote or something like that, that would indicate one, that the Oscars should make a change. And two, that to my existential cry into the dark earlier, nobody really knows what they're trying to do here. Nobody really knows what they're trying to reward. And maybe that fractured nature, that parody for lack of a better word is good, but it feels unusual. Nobody knows what everyone is trying to reward. I think a lot of people know what they individually are trying to reward. And to that, and I think it's cool that even if Black Klansman gets 11 votes, that there

are 11 people who are like, I really like this and Spike deserves to be in the Best Picture conversation. And that's what I'm voting for. I actually don't, again, I don't mind the lack of consensus because I do think it makes for more interesting films in the mix. I think you're right that if it then goes, the math goes weird and as a result, there's no consensus. And so then we all had to agree on Bohemian Rhapsody because it was the movie that most

people had seen and most people didn't mind. That is a problem. And that means the system is broken because that's not advocating for a vision and what is best. That's actual consensus. I don't think consensus is good. This is my thing. I don't think consensus is good. I think everyone has to have ideas and thoughts and passion in their heart. So you're thinking about the individual and I'm thinking about the institution. And this is perhaps an apt metaphor for the way that you and I think about the world. I am thinking about the historical context here, what this is trying to say about the water world. And you're like, here's how I feel.

Here's how people feel. And this is what they want. And it's okay for it to be that way. I don't even disagree with you. It's just, it's a completely different way of trying to analyze this stuff. I think also that if you get enough individuals together that they then can speak for an institution. I don't really care about this institution. That's the thing.

I think it's interesting for history. And, you know, we talk about data points and narrative arcs and how things are changing. We all use those and that's great. But like, who gives a shit about the actual academy? It's nice that it's nice.

The work that they do to presume preserve film history and teach people, which means something to us as people who care about history. And they spend all pretty much all their money on that. You know, the thing about the Academy is, and we've been really just desecrating the Academy for months. And particularly in this episode, the whole first 20 minutes episode is like,

these guys don't know what they're doing. The flip side of it is they really take care of movie history in a lot of good ways. Not necessarily with our awards giving, but with the way that they preserve film. If you go to the Academy Library, if you're a geek like me, it's an amazing, amazing specimen of history. It's just a really cool museum. It's a really cool way to do research. They do a lot of great work. It's just when they find themselves in these crisis points, they don't know how to act because they're not yet after 90 plus years familiar with how to be public with everything that they do. Well, they're also historians. They aren't, you know, forward thinking.

The thing is, is that we can't decide best picture based on history. Like it's important. It's good to know about it. It's good to know what makes films good. And it's good to know about the craft and where everything comes from. Influence and history are important. But you can't use that just to decide, well, this is the most historically respectful of the movies. No one cares. The ceremony itself and the awards giving itself should be about change and should be about reflecting the moment. At least I think it should. And that is at odds with much of the Academy's fundamental mission. So I understand that it gets a little tense for them, but it's fine. Let's talk about all the movies. We'll be talking about all the movies on Sunday night, February 24th, shortly after the telecast. What time exactly is to be determined, but we're definitely going to be firing up all of our sincere feelings and historical analysis, much like the Academy has been doing for the last couple of months. So we'll have a couple more episodes this week of this show, but tune in on Sunday night to

check that out. February 24th. Amanda, thank you.