The Big Picture - The Oscar Noms Mailbag: Is ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ a Race? Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings.

Episode Date: January 28, 2026

We’re opening up the mailbag! Before diving in, Sean and Amanda break down the poor box office performance over the weekend and highlight some new releases coming this week (2:13). Then, they answer all of your questions relating to last week’s Oscars nominations, talk through topics like whether or not late release dates negatively affected certain films' award chances, and debate whether ‘Sinners’ now has a legitimate shot at winning Best Picture over ‘One Battle After Another’ (11:24). Finally, they update their Best Picture power rankings following the official nominations (1:40:57). Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins Producer: Jack Sanders This episode is sponsored by State Farm®️. A State Farm agent can help you choose the coverage you need. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.®️ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On game day, pain can hit hard and fast, like the headache you get when your favorite team and your fantasy team both lose. When pain comes to play, call an audible with Advil plus acetaminopin and get long-lasting dual-action pain relief for up to eight hours. Tackle your tough pain two ways with Advil plus acetaminephim. Advil, the official pain relief partner of the NFL. Ask your pharmacist at this product's rate for you. Always read and follow the label. Hey, everyone, it's me, Sean Fantasy. a quick programming note before we get into today's episode.

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If you're meeting us for the first time, welcome to The Big Picture. We're a conversation show about movies, Hollywood, award season, the box office, stardom, the state of the industry, and a lot more. We talk about new releases, we make lists, we play little games that I create, and I interview the biggest filmmakers in the world. It's a very normal show made by normal people, I assure you. That being said, this show is only being licensed by Netflix. They do not own us, nor do they pay us, nor will they influence what we discuss or how we discuss it. If the gray man dropped tomorrow on the service, we'd discuss it in much the same way we discussed it in 2022, which was not very nicely.

If train dreams dropped tomorrow, we'd do the same, which was with admiration and sincerity. That is our promise to you. See you with the movies. Now, on to the show. I'm Sean Fennessee. I'm Amanda Dobbins. And this is the big picture of a conversation show about the tremors of the 2026 Academy Award nominations. On today's show, we will be digging into the mailbag to answer your questions.

the Oscar nominations and reset our best picture power rankings. We didn't do it immediately after the Golden Globes. Do you have any regrets about that? After the Golden Globes, but before the nominations? No, I don't, because then we did our predictions. So it's like we were on the record with what we thought was going to happen. Yeah, we've made some mistakes, but we did some things well. Yeah.

We'll look back at that later in this episode. But first, let's talk about the box office really quickly. Weird weekend at the box office. There was storms across America. 400 movie theaters were closed over the weekend, so numbers were down a bit. They're usually a little depressed in January. Mercy? Yeah.

The new Chris Pratt sitting in a chair chatting with AI movie, which just sounds incredibly cinematic that neither of us have seen yet. Yeah. Jack Sanders, have you seen that film yet? I have not. Okay, all three of us have not seen it. Maybe we will see it soon. Number one, dethroned Avatar Fire and Ash, which had sat atop the box office for five

consecutive weekends. Any thoughts? I'm looking forward. Am I looking forward to seeing mercy? I don't know. I will see it for professional obligations. I know. Really, there's a question about that.

We'll get to it. We can open up the Google Cows live on the podcast. That's what people tune in for. Yeah, people do. This is not what's on people's minds this weekend for a number of reasons. It's not. And the only reason that I brought it up here with us this morning is because the Bone Temple, the 28 years later follow up, fell preempt.

precipitously over the weekend, down 70% from the previous weekend, which was originally an underperformance, and now the movie is sitting at $21 million domestically after two weeks, which is pretty bad, and now has me strongly questioning whether or not the third film will even happen. We speculated about that when we talked about the movie on the show. So we've gotten good reviews. Seems very warmly received by those who have had a chance to see it. Most people have not gone to see it.

Did they film 28 years later and the Bone Temple Temple? like sequentially or They definitely sequentially But I don't know How back to back they were I think they were fairly close together In terms of production You know all that iodine staining for refines

You probably need to keep that consistent Yeah Keep that thing built You know Don't want to deconstruct that temple So then to add on the third There's not a huge financial incentive Yeah

It's a shame These are really good But come on they have to I mean Danny Boyle is rumored to Return For the third film yes He is now putting the finishing touches on ink, his forthcoming biopic of Rupert Murdoch.

Right. Also starring Jack McConnell, O'Connell, right? That's right. I don't want to spoil things for people, but spoiler alert for the coda of the Bone Temple. Killian Murphy? Oscar winner, Killian Murphy's also supposed to be in the third one? Like, surely that would be a bit more of a draw. I don't know.

I saw speculated that because this is a Sony title and because these films do ultimately go to Netflix, that there is a world where maybe Netflix could come in and co-finance the third film and make it a Netflix exclusive, which would at least allow them to complete the trilogy. My understanding is that there is at least a treatment and maybe even a full screenplay for the third film from Alex Garland. So there's material to work with. So I hope this happens. I mean, not that my life will be incomplete if they won't finish the 28 years later quintology. Like, I'll be okay.

But it does feel like they left us hanging at the end of Bone Temple. So you do want to see what happens next. I mean, they just, they set up. Like, once again, Killian Murphy, Oscar winner. Just make the movie. I know. And maybe people will come. Also, just Duran Duran going so hard in my house now.

I would not expect Duran Duran to come back. I know. But I just, I, that was a Dr. Kelson thing. I appreciated that gift that they gave us. It was wonderful. This coming weekend, a lot of movies. An inordinate number of movies are coming out. I'll be watching a lot of movies because Virtual Sundance starts this week.

Some of our friends are there. Right now, we are not. We are not. We have no regrets about that. The last year of Park City. But in the movie theater, and in theory on Friday on the show, we'll talk about some of these movies, a bunch of stuff, some of which feels like it's dumped and some of which feels like it's been strategically placed here to kind of win at a quiet time. So we've already seen Sam Ramey's send help starring Rachel McAdams. We will talk about it on Friday.

Jason Statham has a new action movie. You know, every January, he's got a new one. This one is Shelter from the new Black Bear Productions, Distribution. arm. I don't know what the premise of this movie is. I was about to ask him. I was trying to Google it. Okay, shelter movie premise. Here we go. On a remote coastal island, a reclusive man rescues a young girl from a deadly storm, drawing them both into danger. Wow. Bone Temple vibes there. No. Yes. This does seem right. Okay. Shelter 2026, Rotten Tomato. Sorry. There's the AI results. No, that is correct. Okay. So it's literally about a shelter. Because sometimes you get a single

word statham title like that? And you're like, well, is he actually transporting anything? Like, what does he, what does it mean to be the transporter? What does it mean to be the, does he literally keep bees? Or are the bees that he keeps a kind of metaphor for the information state? The cast would suggest that it's not just the two of them survival style on the island. Okay, got it. And also, he's wearing a parka and carrying a very large assault weapon on the poster. You don't say. So, Jason Staten with an assault weapon. Wow. Really large.

What relationship does this film have to the island, the Michael Bay 2006 vehicle, starring Scarlett Johansson and Ewan McGregor? You know, this Google result is not telling me that as we do the research life. I'll see Shelter. I'll watch it at home. Okay. Also, Charlie XTX is The Moment, which we have seen, which premiered at Sundance last week, which is a lot of fun.

We'll talk about that as well. Melania, did you get your AMC Prime ticket? for the new Brett Ratner documentary about our first lady? I did not. Okay. It will not be. I've seen some ads, I guess, for this. Sure.

Though I would say. Serve to you naturally based on your algorithm. No, more like, have I not seen like posters for Melania out in the world? Yeah. That's because we live in a fascist state. Exactly, which we certainly do and we have evidence of every single day on the internet. Those ads are not making as much news in my home as really old ads for SpongeBob Squarepants yesterday. My son was like, Mom, can you tell me about SpongeBob?

And I found that I could not. Wow. Huge. That's just huge. Like, I don't know what to say. So I see the ads and I'm not taking action on them. Okay. Understood.

Melania also not getting any action apparently from movie theater licenseors because it doesn't seem like that movie's going to go as wide as they had originally hoped it would. I guess it's been financed by Amazon and they're trying to book it in theaters and it looks like it's going to be more of a limited release than a wide release. Can't say I'm upset about that. One interesting movie that is coming out that I don't really know anything about, but the story of it fascinates me. So there's a YouTuber, a well-known YouTuber named Mark Fishback. He goes by Markiplier. I know about him because when my little sister Grace was first discovering YouTube some 15 years ago, she was really into Markiplier's YouTube videos.

Now, he has since become a content person. He has a podcast with Spotify, like he's made a lot of stuff. He self-financed an adaptation of a video game called Iron Long, not a game I've played, before, but he is getting this film distributed like on 2000 screens. And I just think that's cool. I just think that's good for movies. Okay. I come along who are able to do something like that.

Yeah. So that's also being released. And then I did watch people we meet on vacation. Okay. Which is on Netflix right now. Yes. And I know that you podcasted about it on Jam session. We didn't really.

Okay. You spoke of it. We spoke of it. I podcasted at Juliet about it briefly. because I saw the film and Juliet had read the book many years ago. And then I just asked her to explain to me what the hell's going on. I have some strong thoughts. Sure, go ahead.

That run in both directions. I kind of want to save it for Friday. We're like Friday will be like, it's movie season. There's a lot of new stuff. I also have a lot of thoughts. Some of my thoughts are just about the source material. And I had some concerns about the way the film is being framed versus what it actually is. It's really, it's the title, you know?

What do you hear when you hear people we meet on vacation? Well, but it's, you know, it's a rye play on that idea. I understand that. But I thought I was just going to see people having sex on vacation various places. I got to tell you, yeah. You could really cut some corners there by just going straight to Pornhub. That's kind of what they do. That's kind of their thing.

People meeting on vacation having sex. Not at the production level that I am looking for, which is also another note that I have about people we meet on vacation. from time to time. See, I felt like it was, well, we can save it for Friday, but I was like, this is way better than what we usually get. For sure. But it was like they went to New Orleans. And then everywhere else they went was like also New Orleans,

dressed as other places. Yeah, they went to some other homes. Yeah, they were visited some homes, but they were in New Orleans. That was, and the Airbnb, or not the Airbnb, the Italian. No, no, no, the Italian, the Tuscan Villa. Oh, the villa, yeah. You think that was on location? I don't think, but it was a nice house.

I'd like to go on vacation there. Anyway. We're spoiling Friday. It's a riveting conversation. The reason that I even gave a second thought to this movie is Emily Bader. And we will get into that. Same. Okay.

So it has now been almost five days, four days since the Oscar Noms, since we burst into this office at 7.30 in the morning and just started screaming about everything. And, you know, I think the general consensus aligns with ours, which was this was a pretty good crop of Oscar nominations this year. Some goofy things like you said. but mostly good films being recognized, some interesting balance, maybe some of that teetering towards too many, too few films getting too many nominations. But we'll get into that as we get into the mailbag. Any off-the-rip observations that you want to know before we answer people's questions here? Sean and I do not vote for the Oscars so you can send your opinions to us, but not your complaints.

Yes, right. I felt like I was fielding a lot of, well, what about this? Yes. And, you know, I didn't make these choices. You know, my cousin Ian, who is a cineophile, but when we were growing up, I would not have thought of him as a cinephile. But he's now in a stage where he's clearly seeing a lot of movies and he's going to film festivals and stuff.

And he hit me up and he was like, it was just an accident, bro. What the hell? And I'm like, this is kind of interesting that in our movie culture, in some ways I think this is a good thing in some ways. It's a bad thing. But like winning the Palm Door and then being an acclaimed film throughout the season, and getting snubbed in a field of 10 is drawing the interest of people

who are not really in the business, who are not really in the film or television media. There is like a higher level of awareness of the game itself and obviously shows like ours are contributing to that. But hopefully that just means people

are seeing those movies. You know, like for somebody who doesn't have to go see an Iranian film made in secret about, you know, the control of the fascist operation in that country, that's a good thing, you know?

That's a really interesting that like film like that can be more widely distributed. So even when we mock or even when I mock a place like neon for just buying up every movie, you mock them. I just think they're distributing film. They are just distributing film. The playbook is evident at this point, but that's fine. I think it's like, I'll tell you how this is very ungenerous.

I'm making things worse for myself in this comment, but it occurs to me. There's the thing in sports where there are some guys who have like Iron Man streaks where they play every game. And, you know, Cal Ripkin Jr., famously the Baltimore Orioles infielder. A.C. Green, the Lakers Forward for years, like, even when he was injured, he would check into a game for like one minute and then check out, even if he couldn't play because he wanted to keep that Iron Man Street going of consecutive games played. Neon definitely is like doing that a little bit with the Palm Door and the international feature film where they're just like, we're not letting go of this, no matter what happens. Yeah. But the upside is they distribute all these movies in America, which is fantastic. And they're also, I think they're not letting go of that strategy because it gets them both off.

And also it is their financial strategy right now. It is. It's debatable how effective that is. I don't know how much money they're making, but it's not like, there's not, it's their lane that they've carved out. So they're doubling down on it. And it does mean that more Americans see more international films. Let's circle back specifically on this as soon as we get into the first question, because

I have some thoughts related to that box office question. But Jack, what is our first question? Well, our first question is a combination of a lot of different things. By far and away, the most common email we received was, bro, what the hell happened with no other choice in the Testament of Anley? And we had a couple of hypotheses come in. Oren was asking, are Park Chan-Wook's films simply too transgressive? Is it because he didn't win the Palm Door? Does the Academy just simply not like his films?

And later, Kenneth wrote in, Do you think the later in the year-wide releases of the Testament of Anley and no other choice hurt, their Oscar chances. Okay, let's talk about no other choice in Park Chan look first. Yeah. So it is getting a little weird now. It is a little bit strange

that one of the most celebrated filmmakers on the planet for roughly this last 25 years has not been recognized by the Academy. It's particularly strange because we just saw in 2019, Bong Joon Ho, his South Korean compatriot, get recognized for a film

with a similar tone and conceit and with a similar level of mastery, right? So you could say, well, it's not that the Academy doesn't care for South Korean cinema or Asian cinema or they don't care for satires about capitalism or, you know. Begonia was nominated. It was nominated. So that's not really at issue. Now, Park Chanwick was expelled from the WGA last year for what was made to seem like rule-breaking actions during the production of his age. HBO series that came out last year.

Now, he disputed those claims and said that the bylaws were confused and that he didn't do anything wrong, nor did Don McKellar, who was his writing partner, who also has a writing credit on another choice. It's possible that there was a little bit of blowback around that. I have heard from people in the WTA who have said that they feel that this was a harsh penalty for something that is a little bit confusing because it was about working during the strike. Right.

So that's one factor. I guess that's possible. Two could be the neon thing, which is that they just had a lot of titles that were going. Right. And to, you know, Orrin's point, maybe not winning the Palm Door, not getting that higher level of acclaim, could have been a factor, although it was just an accident also didn't get nominated for Best Picture. Right. And within international feature, Surat getting in over no other choice, Surat also is like, you. a neon film.

Also a can title. And was a surprise. And we saw, we saw inklings of this in the shortlists where Sarat was nominated in a bunch of, or was shortlisted in a number of below the line categories as well as international feature and no other choice was like missing a lot of places. And I think we were confused by that. And sometimes it's just sort of a momentum thing where after those short lists, everyone did seem to be like, I mean, we even put Sarat on our best picture power rankings.

That was our last one. So that is just about timing and a lot of, hey, look over here. And maybe you should check out this movie. And I guess, I don't know whether you can say that Sarat took the place of no other choice. But I think I don't, I predicted it the other way, I think. And you're right that I think neon had like a certain number of slots. and no other choice just didn't get it. Well, one of the reasons why it's surprising to me is

there's something that happened with no other choice where what I'll describe is the kind of like hardcore cinephile critic grouping, of which our buddy Adam Neiman is a member, he was pretty cold on no other choice. Yeah. And has been a fan of Parchan Wilkes movies in the past, but I think he and some other critics that I've been reading

felt it was a little iterative or like a little bit too cute in terms of how, when about the work, you know, it's very flashy and very formally inventive and showy and that that might have turned some people off. I loved it. It was one of my five favorite movies of the year. We've talked about it on the show already. But when that happens, usually when a film breaks with that crowd, the opposite tends to happen where the Academy tends to get on board with a film, like one film too late as they might see it. Right. You know, where it's like it's kind of safe for the

normies now. And we're seeing that in a way because the movie's doing really well at the box office. Like it's probably going to end up making like $10 million in America, which is very good and is frankly a lot more money than any of these other neon movies that are being nominated for Academy Awards. I think sentimental values topped out at like $4.5 million. It was just an accident. It's made about $2 million. So it's connecting with audiences. It's connecting with us. Yeah.

Some people I know, not all critics. But like I said, the sort of like the more hardcore critic seems to be a little bit disinterested in it. And so it falls into this kind of nether space that I can't remember a lot of movies being in. where it's like it's obviously kind of formally brilliant. Parks have been making movies for decades. He's never been recognized. His country, I think, as being increasingly recognized

in time as a real hub of creativity. In fact, Bagonia is adapted from a South Korean film. So it's just, it is a stumper. Like, the reason that somebody people are asking is a good question. That being said, we have known that this was going to happen. I think that it was not going to get in the best picture

for like months. Like, he never even considered it. Well, so let's talk. about release dates and let's talk about Testament of Family because I do think that there is something there but I don't know which is the cause and which is the effect

where I agree we've known for a few months that it was not really hitting you know it's another one that premiered at Venice and was received well and I was one of the best things I saw there but like

didn't really get the festival bump that I guess I mean, Frankenstein didn't either. Frankenstein was saved by the New York film festival, I suppose.

But we knew, and so as a result, neon dated it way later than its other films. And so sentimental value got the October, November, push. I think sentimental value

was November, but they were prime award season and rollouts, and it was just an accident, was even earlier. And... That had a more limited release, but those were the two that they really put their arms around. Yeah, exactly. And,

you know, Sarat is still not available. It's, it was like, February 6th apparently is when it's really going out there. After the shortlist and after everyone was like, oh, okay, Sarat, this is something that like we need to pay attention to. Which for the record is not that unusual. Yeah. That is something that has happened a lot historically. I think it's smart for them. So I guess February 6th, Sarat will be available in New York and L.A. and then the 13th going more wide. We will talk about Sarat on this show. Hopefully people will get a chance to see it. It's a really interesting movie. Right.

Kind of like something interesting to chew on. There's a lot in it to take apart. But it does feel like the point you're making is right, which is like no other choice got sandwiched between those three other movies. And purposefully. So you kind of, when you're looking at, you can look at those dates to kind of assess neon strategy, I think, and see that neon thinks, okay, this is probably, we'll do it for an awards qualifying run. Well, I think they saw it as a commercial play. That's why it's a Christmas movie. Exactly. Yeah.

They saw No Other Choice as a movie that can make some money as opposed to get some awards consideration. And, like, it pretty much worked. Right. So I think they're probably ultimately happy, even though the No Other Choice team is really bummed out about this. Anne Lee is a different kettle of fish. So, Anne Lee, which has been in the works for some time, but was only acquired by Searchlight after the festivals. And a little late after the festivals, too. A while after the festivals.

It was like, who is going to, is someone going to pick this? up. We hope someone's going to pick this up. This is really deserving. I hope other people are going to be able to see it. It just was a little too late. Yeah. You know, and Searchlight picked it up and I'm glad that they did. And it opened more widely this weekend. And it did not perform very well at the box office, I think, in part because of the weather, in part because it didn't get any Oscar nominations. And part because, as you mentioned, when you first saw it and people walked out, it's like, it's a weird movie. You know, it's a different kind of movie. It's cool, but it's weird. But so that film, which as we both said, has this insanely great Amanda Seiford performance that I

think is probably going to end up going down as one of those like historical how did we not recognize her for kind of things assuming enough people see the movie to have that opinion um but if that movie had gotten picked up in august but pre-festable and they started that campaign and they made it in a november movie like sentimental value and they let it slow burn through the season yeah more and more people see it more and more people will watch it on the portals more and more people will go to you know screenings that are hosted by amazing actresses telling amanda syphrit how great she is, I think it would have had a different fate. Or at least she might have had a different fate. I don't know. I do think part of what we like

about the movie is how strange it is and how unlike anything else I've ever seen. And I mean that in a positive way, but you, I understand why it did not make it into best picture. It is sort of, it's not unlike the brutalist, it is not wearing the clothes of, you know, great prestige, like great men. cinema. It's just it's about some weird people who like shake around a lot while forming a cult of personality. Yeah, I mean I think the

musical aspect of it is a little bit off-putting for some people. I think Anne Lee's kind of fortitude in the face of a lot of terrible things that happened to her and then this hard philosophical pivot that she makes as a character is going to be bracing for audiences. And then the movie ends in this kind of fascinatingly quiet contemplative way that I wouldn't say is satisfying per se. You know, it makes you think, but there's no uplift, but there's also no like, well, that was the point of that.

You know, like with the Brutalist, which of course is like the kind of companion movie, people had a lot of issues that the second half yourself included. No, I had issue. Well, that's true. I guess I had issues with the one plot twist and then the Cota. Right. Yeah. But it, the first half is like, it's dynamite. It's very classic.

Yeah. You know, it's very like, man comes to great. land to conquer and learn about the space and then finds out the reality of what it's like to be here. Anne Lee, as you said, is just a little bit more divergent from that traditional structure. The other one if here is that if they actually could have coordinated Anne Lee and the Housemade and those press cycles a little more, which they did their best. They did their best. I mean, Anna Seifred was really out there working and I watched a lot of great content.

And, you know, that movie has also been a slow burn. and it's made a tremendous amount of money, but not like immediately on opening weekend all it once. I mean, it was successful. It is exactly like anyone but you in 23 and to 24, where it came out, it did pretty good business in its first weekend, and it was just held on and people are going back and going back. Obviously, I'm sure a strong female contingent of audience there,

and that movies made $250 million worldwide in a month. That's amazing. And it does kind of confirm. I think Sidney and Amanda Sefer can share credit for that, but it's also just the material. And that material could not be more different from Anley. Right. Like, there's not a lot of crossover there. But it's like, you know, in prior years, we've seen this before, if you had bumped Housemade up or you'd bumped House Made and Lee up a month.

And so the success of Housemade is a little more established before voting. It's a very classic. We'll nominate her for Anne Lee to really reward her. for the, like, the trashy thing that we would never nominate. And it is, you know, again, I do think timing and release dates are just, it was just a little bit too late. And Searchlight, you know, was just purchased it too late, started it too late. Yeah. You know.

Damien here also asked around the Testament of An Lee shut out, not just, and there's a lot of Kate Hudson questions. We can kind of talk about Kate Hudson and why that, why she got nominated there. But Daniel Blumberg, who just won last year for his. work in The Brutalist who I think very quickly has established himself as a very powerful composer in Hollywood and helped write some of these songs and kind of restructure these old hymns to seem like more modern film score. I have been listening to that score a bit recently. It is a major achievement and it is very unique. And to me it's not as off-putting as the actual content of the film. So that's another place where like they didn't campaign it that well.

Well, listen, we know what we think of the score branch. They're just really, really, really on notice. Okay. Yeah. They need to. Have they contacted you since you made that proclamation? No, I haven't heard from them. Okay. I think that they're ashamed.

Okay. And as they should be. Jim and Janet score. Jim and Janet score need to have a meeting with themselves. Okay. Revaluate their priorities. Let modern music into their lives. Yep.

And then maybe next year for everyone. Sounds good. Kate Hudson. Yeah. So two things about this. Okay. I said on Thursday. You love this movie.

I like it. I actually preferred Hugh Jackman in the movie, as I said on the episode. I thought he was the best part of the film. I heard some people say they felt he was miscast, which I don't understand. It's like you need a song and dance man who's got Gravitas. There's only one in Hollywood. He's the one. He's the guy.

You have like a Hugh Jackman weakness. You love Hugh Jackman. I do. I do. I think he's extremely versatile. And that being said, I've never seen the greatest showman. Never seen it. Should we do a Greatest Showman pod?

You mean people would enjoy that? a watch-al-all? Yeah, yeah. Sure. Well, it would be a first-time watch for me, but... Well, who says that a watch-along can't be a first-time watch? I guess you're right. We make the rules.

It was a... Avatar was the first-time watch for Chris. As Taylor Swift once said, we can leave the Christmas lights up until January. This is our house. When did you say that? In the song... What song is that? Jack? Come on, help me up.

Thank you, Josh. We're not knowing. Lover, I think. I think that's lover. Yeah. Cool. He's about Joe. That one.

I see. I see. I see. Kate Hudson. Let's talk about this quickly. One thing that you'll, if you listen to a lot of punditry about the Academy Awards, you'll hear a lot of people say Kate Hudson worked it this year. Yeah.

She pulled every string that every friend that she has. She's obviously very well liked in the community of Hollywood. She's part of a legacy family. Her mother is Goldie Hawn. She has a big party in Aspen every New Year's? Yes. Sure. I learned that from you.

They play the bongos? Yes. She's evidently a good time. She's fun. And people like her and she's been very successful over the years. And she is also capable of great work. If you've seen almost famous, you know she's super talented. But she, for whatever reason, has not spent as much time making quote unquote prestige movies. Songs on Blue is not really prestigious, but it is quite serious and in fact more serious than you would think if you just watch the trailer. And she has to deal with a character who has had an amputation and who has to sing and dance and struggles with addiction. And it kind of like. Tick-tac toes. And wears ugly sweaters. Yes. There's some Midwest camp aspect to it in terms of the accent. So the character that she's nominated for is doing a lot and does feel like a little bit more of a traditional nomination. I tend to favor the relationships angle, especially in this category.

You know, the Andrea Rysboro nomination famously was born of this kind of like, you know, handshakes and baby kissing. And Guineathleto and Edward Norton posting on social media before that was quote unquote. outlawed. Yes. No, I agree with you, but I do think it's a little bit of both. I think that there are a lot of people. It does just have that really famous, glossy person, you know, dressing themselves in an ugly clothing and doing something sad. And then everyone's like, oh, bravo, you know, this is acting. This is why we show up. And I think many of those same people, are also friends or want to be friends with Kate Hudson. Or they like Fabletics.

I don't know. She's very well liked. Sure. You know? What would that be like? In the world. I don't know. You think it's fun?

She also likes Aspen, which I'm just on the right. I'm not interested. Can't make me care. It's just full of weird opinions. It's cold. You don't like being cold. You like mountains, but you don't like being cold. I like to ski.

I love mountains. Huge mountain. No, I know. I love a mountain. But you like, but you cry. every time you go back to New York now and you're like, I can't do it anymore. I'm broken. But I think adventure cold is different from trudging to work at 9 a.m. cold. Yeah.

And I have a different relationship to adventure cold. I don't like gear, you know? Gear. Yeah. Would you like apra ski? No, not. I mean, not really. I mean, I like a drink, but, you know.

What about just a warm mug of cocoa by the fireplace? I'm working on. Bear skin rug. I like coffee, but like otherwise. I'm working on my relationship to warm drinks. You know? Just think of just snuggling up. I, yeah.

Jack, no, what do you think? It's not my vibe. I don't really have anything to add here. Yeah. Like, you know how Zach's always making like a toddy around the holidays? And I'm like, I don't need a toddy. I just want my ngroni. And I just want to go home.

I know. Everyone else loves a toddy, but not me. Tati is delightful. Yeah. Is there anything else around Ann Lee or no other choice, Jack, that you feel like we should talk through? because you're right that it is, we heard from a lot of people about this.

I don't know if there was anything specifically. I'm looking through the doc now, but it was just a lot, it was just a lot of people being like, what the hell I don't understand this. And I was surprised that that was the most popular email. Well, I found that to be the most common.

Our listeners, people who will send an email to us in 2026 are devoted. Well, this is like, and they're cinephiles. This is an award season podcast, but it's a cinefile podcast too, right? It's like, if you really care about movies and you go see 100 movies a year,

No other choice is definitely going to be one of the best movies you see this year. Like, Parktown Wook is like mainstream cineophile. Like there was a decision to leave joke on last season of industry, which I thought was very funny. Like, shout out Mickey and Conrad. But, you know, there is. He's made movies in America. He's made American TV series. The people who know, no.

Yes, yes. I think he does, he fits that Venn diagram for film lovers. He's not quite Paul Thomas Anderson, but he's not Laf Diaz. You know what I mean? Like, he's not, you know, a slow cinema artist who's barely known outside of festival circles. So you're right about that. Okay, let's go to the next question, which is really the biggest question of this entire race. I forgot to mention before I ask it briefly is that people started following a request, Sean, of leaving their age with their email.

Oh, cool. But it was, like, probably 18% of emails, and the only people were doing it were my age or younger. So. That's honestly wonderful. Yeah. I appreciate that. And thank you to the 20-somethings for sharing their age. I wonder if it's the 30-somethings and 40-somethings and 50-somethings and 50-somethings are not sharing their age

because they're ashamed of themselves for listening to this podcast. Thank you to the 20s. Okay, what's the big question? Everybody was asking, do you think sinners now has a legitimate shot at winning best picture over one battle after another? My answer is yes. Okay. And I've been wondering about what your answer to this question is since I saw this question in the document. So we've both been steadfast that we feel that this would be,

one battle after another all the way through. In the aftermath of the Golden Globes, when Hamnet won best drama over sinners, we had a conversation and I was pushing the idea, maybe this is a moment to kind of, you know, pierce the armor that one battle has had throughout this season, maybe just in an effort to keep ourselves entertained through what we thought could have been very boring.

But I think it's hard to say, and you may disagree, 16 nominations, just a profound number of nominations. by far the most in the history of this awards for sinners means that there's just overwhelming support for it throughout the entire body. And it's preferential ballot. And with preferential ballot, anything can happen when it comes to two movies that are both really well liked like these two.

So my answer is yes. What is your answer? My answer is no. For a few reasons. Everything that you said is true. And I think I would be shocked. but not surprised if it did win, if that makes sense. And also, like, excited.

It would be great if Sinners won. I think we're choosing between two worthy films here. Even if one battle after another was our number one, Sinners ranks very high. Yep. Like, I mean, like, this is a good thing. So, but you look at the last several years, everything everywhere all at once, Oppenheimer and Inora, you know, decided pretty early. And we've second guessed ourselves.

And I think people try to make the race interesting. But in the end, those. movies were dominant. Anora's track, though, was somewhat similar. Yeah. Because I think that you and I both were pretty confident about Anora, as confident as you could be about a Sean Baker movie, because nothing really rose to the surface that we thought was going to be able to get past it.

And some sort of the weird, Sean Baker's time narrative kind of took off, which is fascinating. I love him as a filmmaker, but he's an unusual version of person. But that was more about the field that year. And then the Brutalist won at the Golden Globes that year. And we did move the Brutalist ahead of Anora for like one month in our rankings. But all along it was it was a Nora. But I think that that was a similar feeling that I was having where I was like, is something shifting here or is this just a smokescreen?

Which I think is legitimate. And we did feel that way. And I understand feeling that way about sinners now. But, you know, then not only did Anora win best picture and did Sean Baker win best director, but he won screenplay, and then he won editing, which we didn't expect. And Mikey Madison won best actress, which we didn't expect. So, it was a romp. These, in the past few years at least, and the academy is changing quickly enough that you really can only use the last few years as like a really predictive sample size.

I have a thought about that, but keep going. In the last few years, once we've decided on a movie, you know, and a little bit to our chagrin as award season podcasters, it kind of has been decided. So I do think there are those aspects of it. It's one battle had 13 nominations. So it's like that's that's a lot. That's now the third most all time. Yeah. So it's not like there's not a huge amount of support for one battle after another.

I do think that the Paul Thomas Anderson, its time narrative is very strong. And you think about where we do think he's going to win best director. Well, I think we should talk about it. Okay. You think I think Kugler could. Well, I think that that's kind of baked into a lot of this conversation. there's part of this being such an extended season means there is time for everything to change.

So from a national perspective, the second biggest moment of award season is last Friday. And the headline out of that award season was sinners. 16. It was not one battle 13. Nope. Most people don't know how many nominations one battle has. But 16 was the first thing you saw if you visited CNN.com

or the New York Times or wherever you get your news and you're kind of a general consumer. Now, obviously the people who vote on the Oscars are going to have more information about that. But I think when you see a number like that, even if you are a voter in the academy, it makes you sit back and think, like, well, what is it that I'm voting for? Am I voting for a movie that made me feel something? Am I voting for the movie that I like the most? Or am I voting for the movie that feels like the biggest accomplishment? Now, Sinners, one of the reasons why it has so many nominations is one, it overperformed in the acting categories.

Wumi Musaku and Delroy Lindo getting in was really interesting. And one little wrinkle to that is that those are both UK-born actors who might be recognized at BFTA. So you might see another big Sinner's BAFTA number coming soon. Now, historically, black American performers are not recognized at BAFTA, but this could be a little bit of a wrinkle. So there's that. And then secondarily, you've got a film about music

with score and song recognized. You've got a period film. so costume and production designer are being recognized. Plus you've got the entire legacy team of Black Panther, some of whom are Oscar winners, Ruth Carter and Oscar winner for Black Panther. Hannah Beechler and Oscar winner for Black Panther.

So these are people who are like, they're the new Colleen Atwoods. You know, like they're the new, like, the class of people who are always recognized for their work are always nominated for their work. Cougler has kind of brought this whole group of people. Autumn D'Rald Archipaugh was not the cinematographer on the Last Ryan Cougar movie,

but she is now like a part of that class and she's a strong favorite to win in that category in cinematography. So when you start looking at the board and you're like, oh, well, maybe it'll just be Cougler and screenplay, or maybe it'll be seven wins for Cinners. Like there's a world where that exact math that you were describing with Sean Baker,

it could move for this film too. It's totally possible. It could also be that we're there on March 15th and Sinners hits in every single below the line category and we have that Mad Max Fury Road moment. And then as you get into the deeper categories, the voters have thought, okay, well, I've acknowledged, you know, the cinematography, I've acknowledged, the production design, I've acknowledged, the score I've acknowledged, the screenplay, and, you know, now I'll do other things.

Could be wrong. I think both things are totally in play. And that's kind of what's fascinating to me about this, because I just would not have said this. Now, one of the things that I think is working. I don't even think Thursday morning we said that we thought. Sinners could win. We did not. We talked about it.

Multiple people texted me on Thursday that were just like, are you changing your mind about this at all? And I'm sure that there's a recency bias to this level of information. And just people being like, are you sure, buddy, tends to always have an effect on me. But I would. I know. I would still favor one battle after another. But I do think that the sinner's case is strong. I do think that it would be another interesting example of like Googler going ahead of PTA does remind me a little bit of Bong Joon Ho going ahead of Quentin Tarantino.

You know, where it's like, you know, the apprentice becomes the master kind of thing. The other thing that we didn't talk about at all, which is really interesting, I think Matt Bellany got into this a little bit on the town. They're both orders. I was going to ask you. Yeah, what if they weren't funded by the same studio? So what does that mean for the campaigns? What does that mean for how one film is favored over the other? I mean, you know, one battle after another is the smaller film in terms of box office and the number of people that went to go see it.

but it is historically more in line, I would say, with Academy Fair, you know, a dramatic film about historical violence, I guess, for lack of a better term. Like, Sinners has that vampire aspect. But, you know, sinners being a bigger box office sensation, it would be a way for Hollywood to kind of rubber stamp what it means to take a chance on original material and make success. On the other hand, the film didn't travel as well, and black films don't always play as well overseas.

sometimes depends on the film. At least that's the phrasing that you hear from executives about why they're not marketed as well overseas. So you've got, there's just a lot of noise in this very particular race. And we're not even talking about Hamnet because it underperformed a little bit on Thursday. But I'm not totally ruling it out

because you could definitely see a like one battle sinner's ethic kind of canceling each other out. And then a movie with all the Spielbergs of the world. Yeah. I mean, what do you think about that? I don't look forward to that podcast. We have to just start recording. I think we'll say some things that will get us in trouble.

Yeah. It's not impossible. It's not impossible. It's not where I would put my money, but this is not a betting podcast. Preferential voting will be really interesting this year. Hamlet is still not as widely seen as those other two movies. I'm sure most people in the academy have had a chance to check it out because it's been so touted. but it's doing well overseas and it still just didn't do that well in the United States.

I don't know what impact that would have on the Academy Awards. It's interesting. Yeah. We have something to discuss, you know? We do. I was a little bit bored a month ago and now I've had my engines have been refired. Where does sentimental value sit in terms of preferential ballots and other things canceling each other out? It's a good question.

I think I said on Thursday that it got eight nominations, eight nominations, but I was wrong. I've got nine nomination sentiments of value, which is more than Hamnet. And it's the same number as Frankenstein. Yeah. And people love that movie. Yeah. I love that movie. You do.

And I respect that movie. Your husband loves that movie. Everyone I know. You know, I think, I don't think it has any chance to win this picture. I do that. But where does it sit on the preferential ballot? I don't know. It could be four.

It could be seven. It really depends. Again, release the votes. Agree. Release the votes. Release them over the course of the broadcast. Just do that. Yeah.

Who says no besides everyone who's nominated and or votes? We say yes. Okay, what's the next question, Jack? Next question comes from Andrew. He says, help me understand why it's not Leo for best actor. He just does not understand. Personally, Leo cleared Timmy for him performance-wise, but is there any reason other than the time of release states that Leo isn't been taking that seriously?

Did Andrew leave his age? I don't believe so, but I'll go check. What was it from at Leonardo DiCaprio at gmail.com or It's just curious You think Leo uses Gmail? I think he's old school. You think at mac.com? No, he's AOL.

AOL. Don't you think? Does AOL still exist? I know, but people still have the addresses. They do. I guess it does. Yeah. Earthlink?

Does Leo email? I mean, I don't know how much time Leo spends on a phone in general, you know? Carrier Pigeon or Pony Express. How do you think he gets messages out? I mean, I don't know whether he's using like a smart phone, you know? Like, what, Leo Googling? You think he's got what a flip phone? It could be.

Blackberry? Listen, like, you saw the end of one battle after another, you know? The most underrated part of the one battle after another promotional campaign was in interview magazine, PTA and Leo interviewed each other for the film. And in that discussion, which I think came out before the movie was released, they talked about beepers. and whether beepers were for drug dealers or not. And I would encourage people to go out and look into that content because it was very relatable as a kid who had a beeper at 14 years old on Long Island in the 90s.

Certainly. Everybody I knew had a beeper. My dad had a beeper. And I knew the number. So whenever I needed him, I could beep him, but I didn't get one. I mean, my dad had a beeper because he was a cop. Yeah, sure. That's tough. Beeper, what an amazing moment in technology that was.

Jack, you know what a beeper is? No idea. Are you serious? Yeah, I have no idea. What? Oh, you have no idea. Okay, so this is great. Let's try to explain when a beeper was.

So it was a little... A little rectangular device. Yeah. Square digital device that had a small, narrow screen on the top of it. Right. And you could... And it was an attached to a phone number. So in some ways it was like pre-phone and you would call the phone number and then the beeper

would just display the number that called. It was like a, hey, I'm trying to get your attention. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Sounds really cool. And they were almost always attached to your belt. But these were designed to be used by doctors, by firefighters, by people who needed to be contacted in a moment of emergency. And police officers all had them for a stretch. They became like something you might even find on a TV show.

You'd watch a cop or something. And they would have one right next to their holster. This was for seven years maybe in history, like 91 through 99. Is a beeper, a pager? A pager? Yeah. Okay, that I'm vaguely familiar with. Okay, sure.

You just don't know about the phraseology beeper. That is correct. When it went off. I mean, we're basically working our way back to it. Like, people are trying to brick their cell phones and make them unusable for anything other than, like, call me right back. Yes. So let's, you know, let's bring them back. I had one.

Yeah. Why did I need one at 14? Why don't I need to be beeped? Who was beeping me? I don't really understand. Also, if you press Star 9-1-1, that indicated it was an emergency. So get in touch with me immediately, which kind of obviates the idea of even being beeped in the first place. It's like, you got beeped.

So, like, was it not an emergency? Why did you contact me? Anyway. Yeah. Just some campaign lore. Check out that interview. Right. Leo beepers.

That's how we got there. Why isn't it Leo? I've given my spiel on this. I think it's weird. I think it's weird that it's not about who's more worthy. They're both great. Both those movies are great. Their performances are amazing.

We love both of them. It's actually not an interesting thing to debate like, well, this was a more textured performance or he really embodied this or he made me laugh here and he didn't. I know, but that's not what it is. Just campaign wise. I mean, some of it, I guess the Leo performance is more comedic and the Chalamay performance is more a classical, like, actor putting it all, like going for it. This is, you know, he gives a speech where he's like, I have a purpose, you know. And so maybe it's just like the role. themselves. The Charlemais, the

Marty role reads as a little more like traditional Oscar. And certainly the campaign has gone with it. I mean, Leo has definitely been out there. He was on this podcast. He was also on Travis Kelsey's podcast. So he's been doing his version. He did actors

on actors. Yeah, that was great. Talked about DVD players. But. Hell yeah. I mean, it is not campaigning on the level that Timothy is, you know. is not a born poster, so that could be part of it, just in terms of, like, attention to comment.

That doesn't usually work. That doesn't really. What he's doing is unorthodox. I agree. And Timie has had to roll it back. I guess, you know. It's a really interesting thing that has happened. I don't know if it's completely without precedent.

There have been young winners before. But it's unusual for someone who is, for lack of a better phrase, very modern, getting recognized in this way. So we had a question later on about the best Oscar stars. speeches of all time that we'll get to shortly. Yeah. And I went back and I watched one of them from 2010. And I was looking at who was nominated in one of the categories and there was a standing ovation moment and the composition of the crowd.

And it felt, and I don't mean this pejoratively, it felt old. Yeah. It felt like a bunch of 50-somethings, 60-somethings. It felt like, and you might be able to look back at it and say, this is kind of the last gasp of a certain time for this award show, for the way that we understand movies, for the place that the Academy Awards holds, which is like not a place to at that time it was not a place to recognize massive hits. It was a place to recognize great art from people who were

overlooked in their 20s, 30s and 40s and given them prizes in their 50s and 60s. And this is a bit of a sea change. You know, Mikey Madison is not as much of a sea change because younger actresses do win more historically. But I mean, when's the last time? I mean, I guess Eddie Redmayne was very young when he won and Rami Malik was very young when he won.

It's not like there are never young guys, and those guys were both fairly, but they were not well known. They were not stars. Like, Salome is a star, and he's probably going to win at 30 years old. So over Leo, who's the star of his generation. That's right. And I haven't really been able to figure it out. Probably three or four times on the show over the last six months.

I've been like, why is Leo not winning? Do you think anything of it has to do with the fact that the critics, associations and all of the early chatter. I mean, we all kind of take for granted that Leo is very good in it and instead I've been talking so much about Benicio del Toro and a lot of people are Sean Penn and Chase Infinity and Tiana Taylor who, you know, won at the Golden Globes. And so just some of the acting attention has been dispersed or like focused elsewhere in that movie.

Possibly. I'm getting the impression maybe that even though the performances are some of the best things about it, that one battle isn't necessarily being seen as a performance movie. It does have four nominations for its performances, but Chase Infinity missed, and we have kind of come to this conclusion that it feels like Stellant Scarsgaard is going to win in supporting now.

So maybe Taylor has a chance to win, but what that movie is being recognized for is kind of its cultural import, PTA's vision, some real creativity in terms of the execution, cinematography of the film. And so it's just not the first thing that comes to mind. I think the way that you explain Marty is on point,

which is like he's in the middle of the movie, and it's a movie about a striver. Yeah. You know, meeting his moment. And then the other thing, too, is that Marty just came out later. And people love it. And it's a hit. It's like a real old-fashioned.

He put it on his shoulders and carried it. He's going to carry it to like $180 million, which is awesome. And I think there is a little bit of like maybe one battle didn't pee too early in the grand scheme of things. But it might have peaked too early for this particular category. I don't know. I'm kind of talking through every potentiality here. We don't know. It's not what you would pick.

Would you say we don't know to every single question that's being asked here? No, I felt like I had pretty strong opinions about the best picture odds. Everything else, I don't know. Got it. Jack, any thoughts about that race? I think also part of it is just like the quote unquote, it's time factor. Like, if Leo doesn't have an Oscar for the Revenant, it's hard for me to imagine they're not giving it to him here. And also PTA not having an Oscar.

It's like you said, the attentions elsewhere. Yeah. But if it's a fun sliding door is. If Leo doesn't get an Oscar for the Revenant, he does get one. for once upon time in Hollywood and Brad Pitt doesn't because he's giving him more interesting performance than Brad Pitt in that movie but Brad Pitt got it because it was his time and he's a little bit older than Leo anyway

so you know we can play that game all day maybe one day we will it's true Oscar sliding doors sure you're down I love it okay what's the next question next question comes for Christian who is asking about how to throw an Oscars party he writes I've thrown Oscar parties before but wanted to ask the professionals

what's the best viewing party how it should go drinks food, Oscar bets, how many people should I invite, even the right sound system for it. I want advice from the professionals. So here's the thing. Yeah, we are professional people

who watch the Oscars. Right. So here's the thing is that we watch this for work. So it's not a party. And in fact, the reason that we'll never host an Oscar watching party is that we have very particular conditions, which are don't talk at all.

Like, honestly, like, don't talk. The only person I know in my entire life who's ever allowed to talk to me during the Oscars is Sean Fennesse. And that is like the closest I will ever come to saying I love you to Sean Fennacy. That is so true. That it's like it's literally. We've never discussed that. But you can speak and honestly, Jack, I love you so much. Like you're not really allowed to speak when we're watching the Oscars.

It's okay. Like you do so much for us. I'm so grateful to you, but we're not there yet. So I, I. But we have never talked about that. But it is true. Well, we don't talk about the things. You know, we know when to talk and when not to talk.

But so. That's so funny. So an Oscars party, like, we don't know is the answer. However, I can answer this as like a, not as a professional, but as a person who likes throwing parties. And imagine if we didn't have to be psychotic. You know, I've seen what other people do. Like, I've been on the Internet. Should we almost like remove the Oscars and just make it the Emmys or something or the Globes?

Yeah. Or like Super Bowl or something. something where, you know, like an event thing, a viewing party where we don't have like our entire careers on the line. But you also need to like kind of gamify it because people are asking here about the betting or any sort of like boxes you might have. So ballots for sure. I think that you should do ballots and someone should be tallying during the, during the run of the show to keep people interested. Get those spreadsheets going. Yeah. Also like we have always wanted an elimination process to be part of the.

broadcast or the show and they'll never do it. But you can do it at home. I love that idea. You know, like vote people out. I don't know. I don't know what they lose. Maybe they have to take a shot or something. Once you're eliminated, you have to leave the party. You can't see best picture. How many people you should invite? It really depends on seating. Size of your home is a factor. Right. And the size of the screen and how comfortable people are sitting on the floor. Can I throw a number of you? Yeah. Twelve. That's good. I feel like 12 is the right number of people. It's enough that you've got, you can have like multiple islands of conversation, but not so much that it feels like it'll get too noisy that you won't be able to watch when you

want to watch. That's, that's great. One pro tip that I would give as a professional is to make sure you know what time the Oscars start. If you're hosting an Oscars party, our friend Izzy recently went to an Oscars party as she showed up on time for PMPSD. The hosts and everyone else thought that the Oscars were still starting at 5 p.m. They've moved it up. So make sure that you're clear on the time that that would be my note. Amazing. Let's see. So the food, people really like to do the puns and all the foods and stuff.

I'm not a pun person, but like, who doesn't love a theme? Yeah, like Marty Supreme Pizza. Sure, there you go. Yeah. One cassidia after another. Yeah. What else can we do? I just really like dips and potato chips.

So I just, people should have more potato chips of produce. Yeah, ham and cheese net, you know, like keep going. It's really, really good. Give me some more titles of films. I can't think of any. Bagonia? Burgonia. Bergonia.

Sure. Sliders. There you go. We need some kind of sinners-themed cocktail, right? Because they're in a juke join and they're serving up. Sure. They're serving up illicit drinks. I'm really focused on like Frankenstein.

So like, what can we do with Frankfurt or Frankenstein? You just, well, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There's going to be a lot of like pork themed items on this menu for whatever reason. for whatever reason, you know. I, you know, I think that's fine. I think if you've got the wherewithal.

Sentimental value meal and everyone just gets, you know, and then you're sponsored by McDonald's. Sure. Listen, lock in that SponCon partnership, okay? That is my advice to you. Yeah. Get people to sign. Get it sponsored.

I like drinks. So have drinks if you don't like drinks. You know, don't have alcoholic drinks. Okay. Where are you on sound system? I think you, if you've got some sort of Sonos surround, lock in. Okay. You know, or at worst, the sound bar.

Yeah. I think that'd be helpful. Are you allowing people to talk? Okay, so thank you for asking. Now, I would never do this. Now, we, I think we did watch. We've done golden gloves. Did we not watch Oscars in like the 15, 16, or 1617 era of pre-show?

When Chris Rock hosted, yeah. At my house. We have watched together, but I think it was only like four people or six people at your house. And you and I both were like, no talking, please. And I think our spouses were like these sociopaths should be examined. To me, it's very, very similar to a Mets playoff game. Oh, great. Few and far between, though they are.

Not annual experiences, of course, we know. They've only been to the playoffs twice in the last 10 years. However, I can't watch that with anybody. I can't even watch that with loved ones in my family. I actually need to just be alone because it's very painful and it's not fun. The Oscars is not painful, but it is like, I'm observing the presentation of my science project. Sure. After months of preparation, you know, I definitely have an unhealthy relationship to observing what's transpiring.

But in a way that I love, like, I love watching the Oscars. To this day, we joke around and we're like, they suck. They don't suck. This is my favorite thing. I love it. The reason we spend so much time on it on the show is it's a lot of fun. Super nerds, yeah. So I think it would be hard to do a proper party in that way.

But a globe, we should maybe even consider a Globes party. Yeah. I would, I would, because I don't really care about the Globes anymore. That's true. I'm officially now like these don't really mean anything to me. And there are also breaks for the TV awards, which like I really don't care about. So, you know, you can chit chat or whatever. Great point.

There's plenty of time to socialize. And then we could just pause everyone and be like, I'm so sorry. We need to know. It's international feature, please. Like everyone. This matters. You know, who's getting on stage? Will it be clever Mendoza-Filio?

And people can be like, why are you guys so weird about this? Yeah. Good question. I hope you have a great party. Yes, Christian, good luck. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Life is all about choices. You know, I was thinking about recommending Radiance films to my buddy Chris Ryan,

a physical media company, because I knew he had a real taste for Italian crime films and no one does it better than Radiance. And of course, I was right. Chris got involved in radiance and how he feels great about it. At State Farm, their goal is to help you make decisions that you feel good about. That's why, with the State Farm Personal Price Plan, you can choose the right amount of coverage to help create a competitive price. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can choose to bundle and save with the personal price plan.

Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. Okay, what's next? Next question comes from Vince. Actually, this is going to be a little bit of a two-parter. Vince is asking, while I was incredibly happy with the Best Picture Noms, it's been heavily discussed how we've seen to reward five of the same movies.

Do you think this is a product of going to 10 nominations? And the follow-up question is from Ryan, saying since the Academy has expanded Best Picture from 5 to 10, should they also expand the acting nominations from 5 to 10? With so many more movies being made and more opportunities for acting, shouldn't they expand the acting categories too? So the first one first. It's interesting. We have been circling this idea a little bit of late. Right. I do think that the ecosystem of awards campaigning and awards identification around films has gotten extremely strong and extremely skilled at putting big red circles around titles as early as January. For example, I got a text from someone that we both know about the film, The Invite, which premiered at Sundance over the weekend.

And that text said, this film will be nominated. for Best Adapted Screenplay. Oh, okay. It's January 25th. So, one, that happens all the time. Two, Cannes is now considered a major precursor, which starts in May. That gives you a runway of several months. Three, we have a major kind of active and vocal cinephile culture that when a big otor is coming with a moment,

in the example of one battle after another, people will be like, well, this certainly feels like it's an Oscar contender. And if the film turns out to be good, then in fact, it gets that five-month tree. where it gets to be identified. I don't think this is a great thing, but I don't think it's because of 10 nominations. I actually kind of wanted to come out in defense of 10 nominations this year because it kind is doing exactly what it was supposed to do. Which is getting more movies that people have seen in the conversation.

Yes. The reason that we're rewarding only five of the 10 same movies is because all the other categories are still five nominees, including every single below the line category. Well, but is it working in reverse? where people know what the best picture contenders are and then they're putting all those movies in those other categories. Because in the past, if you look,

historically there have been more funky like, whoa, this movie in production design or this movie in cinematography. And that is changing a little bit, I would say. There's more concentration at the top than there was 25 years ago. Yeah, I think that's true. Though, you know, makeup design is one this year

where I learned about two movies. You know, I knew about them. Visual effects. You know, there are still places where things that are not anywhere in your best picture make it in. And you're just seeing that in the movies that are, as you said, and I think you're completely right. They're identified January, February, May, you know, as soon as we're guessing what's going to be at Venice, then we're guessing, okay, which are the two, you know, what's the Telleride nomination? What's the Venice nomination? You know, like we're gaming it out before schedules are.

And I think that studios are gaming that as well as they're figuring out releases and festival stuff. So you're right. But then I do think also just the limited number of slots, it is a little bit like Best Picture has five real contenders and five like happy to be here. It's been that way pretty much since they went to 10. I am happy that all of those films are there, you know? Even F1, which like I thought was silly and should have gone to something else. but it's fun to have a big budget film at the, like in Best Picture. I totally agree.

And I kind of like the balance that we're getting there where, you know, it's not just the film like sentimental value may be creeping into the top five, but that the secret agent is kind of firmly there. And it's a part of the race. And because it's a part of the race, I feel like it does get recognized in other categories and might not otherwise get recognized in like Wagner Moore, for example. That feels like a change and a good change. So I like that.

And then on top of that, as you say, films like that. F1 getting in, it's not a bad thing. Like, there are movies that I personally prefer. I would have preferred weapons to get in. I would have preferred no other choice to get in. I would have even preferred the Testament of An Lee to get in. There's probably 10 other movies I like more than F1. But F1, as I said on Thursday,

is a representation of another aspect of filmmaking that doesn't necessarily always get recognized by the Academy that I think actually should be recognized more frequently. So I actually love what 10 has been able to do. but if you expand the other categories to 10, I don't know how I feel about this. What do you think? So I think we just need to add more acting categories.

I mean, we've talked about breakthrough for forever, but I think that's like a really easy one. And that, you know, Chase Infinity could absolutely win that this year. And that would be a nice way to recognize a performance that we both think deserves a nomination. Yep. Comedy, comedic performance, I don't know how I feel about this. But, you know, it's a little bit like the Golden Globes.

box office achievement award, you know, you would just wish that actor and actress would actually recognize comedic performances every so often, and they don't. Well, I have seen some, I don't think I would want to break it down by genre. Yeah. Because I think too many films are already operating in category fraud. And it's like, is one battle a comedy or not? You know, we talked about it with the globes. I don't want to do that.

Yeah. So, but one thing that I would love to see that we've talked about versions of in the past is the kind of like one shot award where it's like you get one scene. Yeah. Or two scenes. You know, like a kind of of an elevated cameo where it has to be critical to the part.

It can't be... Matt Damon and... Well, he's... Matt Damon and interstellar for sure. Yes. You know, that's an example of like, he gets one sequence. All of his cameos that are like pretty essential.

I don't want to spoil any of them. No, he's somebody who would frequently be nominated in this category. We're like, I mean, Peyton Manning and is this thing on this year. Like, I didn't think that was a very effective use of him or idea. I thought it was more distracting than effective. I thought that was funny. Okay.

But that's an example of someone who could be nominated in that spot. And every year, there are 10 examples that are really cool. That would be another way to recognize more performances so you don't have people. You know, it would be the Beatrice Strait Award from Netflix, or Netflix from Network. That's, Netflix is the new network. Yeah. So that would be cool. I'm trying to think of what are some other.

I mean, I think having, you know, more performers and more top line or recognize. recognizable people, both like on the broadcast and getting awards is, I think, a good, good for the awards, good for the show. Can I give you another idea that I had that is sort of related to this? I was wondering if they could revise the Lifetime Achievement Award and make it more of a vote within the body. And it doesn't mean that you would, there would be a vote, but that vote would not just be among the people on the governor's board. It would be amongst the entire academy. but it wouldn't, the prize wouldn't be, the prize would be given out at the awards, but it wouldn't, it would be revealed before that. So like, there would be 20 eligible nominees. Okay. Who have had a body of work that is longer than 30 years. So you're sort of rock and roll hall of faming it? Yes. Okay. And then you get to identify who is the most deserving person in the academy who does not have an academy award and who maybe won't get one. Right. And, you know, we saw Tom Cruise receive a governor's award this year. And he's never won an. Acting Academy Award. But it's, I mean, it's tricky when you're using that award to make up for all of the times that the Academy has overlooked very deserving people. And then you're going to let them

vote on it once again. And then it's just... This idea comes directly from baseball because the Baseball Hall of Fame is voted on by the writers. And oftentimes there are people who go up for that nomination. And if they have, for example, a bad reputation amongst the writers, they won't get as much love as they maybe should get. And that sometimes that very thin, margin of dislike will keep them out of the hall. And then they'll come up for what is called the Veterans Committee some five or ten years later. I don't know what the threshold is of time. And that committee has kind of changed a lot over time, but basically their job is to correct the sins of the Writers Committee. Okay. And so they'll place people in some years after their

career has ended as a sort of like, hey, we're sorry, but Gil Hodges, you know, very legendary first baseman and Mets manager should actually be a Hall of Famer. And then they go in. I always thought that was kind of interesting because it's a different perspective on a person's career and the work that they did at with some distance. This would be kind of an interesting

way to change things up. This is like my 900th idea for the Oscars. I think it's true. I still, you know, the honorary ones don't meet anything to me. Like let's make it real. But if you made it more of a race, you know? Sure.

So then you could say like the entire academy agrees that this person should have an Academy award. Tom Cruise deserves a competitive Oscar. You know, that's just I won't be satisfied until that happens. I agree, but what do we, what does, um, what does Joan Allen deserve? You know what I mean? Like, there's going to be some people who are like, they'll never win now.

You know, they've been Academy Award nominated. That's why you need other acting nominations, you know, give like, that's. But you can't be like, there's a geriatric award for performances 70 and older. You know, another one could also just be ensemble, just take it straight from the actor awards. Like, and that's, if we've added casting, then we can also. They're little same, same. It's like kind of close, but also if you want to crystallize what casting is and how that is different.

If you're trying to recognize the casting directors versus the performances, you just add an ensemble. It's a good point. You get more people there. I like that. There you go. I don't know. It's, you know, more awards.

Awards are good. We've already made up, what, 20. How many are we giving out now? 23 or 24. I think fewer precursors, more Oscars. Make the Oscars a two-day event. I've pitched this idea of 48 Oscars over two days. It's a kind of a lalapalooza situation.

Sure. You got to buy a ticket. I don't think that that's a good idea. I think that you need to have it in one night. I think you have people's attention for that. You've grandfathered in a certain amount of respect and history for the Oscars. I am available for freelance awards consulting. I have more ideas than I know what to do with.

And I'm just screaming into the void all the time. I just don't think that like you alone just giving out Oscars in a marathon for like five days is great programming. And we want to bring the audience in. I said two days. Just two days. I think that's enough. All right, Jack, what's next? Next question comes from Cole.

What was a performance from this past year that you knew had no chance of being nominated but would have been in your personal nominations? Okay, we both picked two. Yeah. You want you first or me first? You're one and two. Go ahead.

You got to the doc first. Elizabeth Olson is really good in this movie, The Assessment that nobody saw and is on Hulu right now. And I have some notes about the movie, and I think it is a bit flawed, but her performance is insanely committed and really good and totally overlooked.

So I would encourage people to seek that out. We didn't really spend very much time on that movie on the show. But it's an interesting example of like it was a fest. I think it was Toronto 2024 and then came and was released in spring of 25 and just kind of vanished. And if they just played their cards a little differently, maybe you would be in a different place where like it's getting an indie spirit nom. And then all of a sudden maybe there's a chance for it. But that movie got passed aside. And then the other one that immediately popped to my mind and this would have been really more,

of a sort of a recognition of the work that he did all year. But Josh O'Connor for Wake Up Dead Man. Yeah. He's terrific in that movie. He's excellent in all four films that he started this year. I was going to say, I like this as the choice, even though it could really be this end hyphen the mastermind because you're giving out your own awards. And he was like hardly recognized any precursors for this. Everybody I know kind of universally agreed, even if they didn't love the most recent Knives Out movie, he's terrific in it.

And he's obviously having a moment. He's about to be in Disclosure Day. It would be a way to kind of like continue to promote his growing stardom. So those are my two. Yeah. What do you got? So I got Ray Fines. Yeah.

20 years later. Would have been so worthy. Great and also setting up Bone Temple. What a great character, great performance. And just as we discussed on that episode, we don't appreciate Ray Fines enough. That is just a man who likes to, he likes to act. He likes to do stuff. He does.

He goes for it. And then, I mean, she was nominated for a golden globe. but I knew it was never going to happen. Jennifer Lawrence and die my love. She's amazing in that. Were you at least a little bit surprised that she didn't get in at Best Actress or you didn't think she had any chance?

No, no, no. I didn't think, especially once, you know, like the troubled moms already are dominating that particular category. So she's like the fourth or fifth, like also ran in Troubled Moms. I know. But Troubled Mom representation, you know.

Yeah, listen. I felt seen. I loved it. She looks great. But, yeah. This film had a very bracing effect on Eileen. Yeah, pro. Well, she was like, I admire it, but I will never look at that again.

Sure. How often do you think that she thinks about the dog? Oh, interesting question. I don't know. I mean not a big dog person. Oh, no, no, no. I don't mean the character. The character of the dog.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, no, about the husband just showing up with a dog. Oh. Which I think about all the time. My husband has never showed up with a dog. I don't mean a slender my husband. Because that would be so offensive to you? Yeah.

But I thought that was just like such a perfect crystallization of just someone just not paying attention. You're like, are you fucking kidding me with this? I'll tell you would make me not want to get a dog as having a kid. Like once you have a kid, you're like, oh shit. I have a dog right now. His name is sigh. And I just have to keep him from eating things he's not supposed to. And petting balls.

Yeah. It's all the same stuff. Yeah. I love him. He's very cute. Okay. What's next? Next question comes from Bailey.

Can we please receive an update on the getting drunk and going to see Mercy situation? As someone who will be getting drunk and going to see Mercy tonight in 40X, I would love a report back on this situation. P.S. Go Mets. Let's fucking go, Bailey. So as I Google Mercy Showtimes and then the zip code I'm not going to share with everyone. I can't see films in 40X. Well, if Mercy is a film about Chris Pratt sitting in a chair and talking to Rebecca Ferguson, then what is the 40x experience? It's a really good point.

Is his chair also in 40X while he's on trial with AI? I have to tell you, the most fun I've ever had was sitting on the floor four months pregnant, watching you do the fall guy in 40X. That chair was moving so much and you were so unhappy. I was four months removed from a pretty significant hip injury during that experience and I regretted every minute of it and I was not pregnant. I find 40X to be uncomfortable. Did I ever tell you after that that I Googled 40?

Like literally after we went, of course. It only occurred to me to Google 40X while pregnant. And of course, like the fine line printed. They're like, we don't recommend this. But I wound up on like Mumsnet, which is like one of the UK mom forums. And someone's like, I went to see Avatar the Way of Water in 40X while pregnant and had a very soothing time. Oh, no kidding. I think the baby liked it.

Wow. So there we go. It's because Keri was in touch with the mother, with AWA. And AWA was giving warm vibes. What happens if I watch Fire and Ash again? And I'm like, I love it. You got to take Knox with you. Knox has got to confront his fear, you know, to get through the fear.

Barang, though. Well. What's it, what, how are you going to feel when Knox comes alive at the sight of Varang? Is he? I tried showing him K-pop Demon Hunters and his face was just, he just covered his eyes. It was like me at a horror movie. All right. So mercy showtimes. You're going to do this in real time.

Well, it's what, yeah, what are we going to do here? It is playing at the I-pick for the record. It is playing at the I-pick. So there's a-you-see that, Jack? There's a four, they've got a 4 p.m. and 7 p.m.s this week. So I guess we just got to discuss. Neither of those are ideal from my lifestyle. I mean, me either, but I can't do 10-30. You know what I love is a 1 p.m. movie on a Tuesday. That's one of my favorite things. I could maybe, so we've got a, we've got a Dolby Cinema 1-15 tomorrow.

Americana, but like, McGuffins is not really hitting my cocktails of choice these days. What do you mean there? What are they serving? They don't carry Campari. What about Regal Paseo? Let's see. I haven't checked. They've got a 140 here. Also a 12.05 tomorrow. 12.05? Yeah. With drinks? I think I can do that. I was going to try to hit an 11 o'clock Pilates after jam session, but I could roll it. Okay. Get in that chair. Jack, where are you at noon tomorrow? Drinking at noon for mercy on a work What else do you have to do? No, you can have a... I edit stuff for this podcast called The Big Picture.

I would be down if I can schedule it accordingly. This is gold content. We can just placebo you, you know, with like water that we tell you is vodka. Of course. If you need to do some editing, maybe it might be easier to edit the show while drunk, just for the record. I'm not advising that, nor am I recommending it. But it could be easier for someone who isn't Jack. Mercy, what if it's good?

No fucking chance. I don't think that that's going to be good. I reserve the right to say it's good if I think it's good. Okay, what's next? Next question comes from Matt. Since the best original song nominations were once again a disappointment, I thought a better hypothetical song category could be best needle drops from this year's movies. Who would be your nominations and winner?

I used to do this every year and I stopped doing it for some reason. Okay. So I have lists from the past. Yeah. And I love this question from Matt. I think it's a good call. I don't think the Oscars, it's a little too, like, internet-y for the Oscars, you know? It's not prestigious enough.

Yeah. Because who do you even giving the award to, the music supervisor, I guess, even though a lot of times these come directly from the filmmakers. Right. And they're, it's written into the script. Yeah. I'm right into the script, yeah. You know, like, for example, I wrote dirty work for one battle after another because that's such a chill's moment when you hear the Steely Dan song and you see Chase Infinity for the first time. You wrote a couple of other candidates from that film.

I mean, both Soldier Boy and. of course, American Girl. Yeah. So PTA kind of renowned for his needle drops in every movie he's got cool ones. And he spends a lot of time kind of pouring over playlist. I know to think about where to pick things. The ones that jumped out of my mind immediately were Beware of Darkness from Weapons, the George Harrison song.

Incredible. Knoch Chase, which ends Sentimental Value, the Lobby C-Fray song. There's a ton of songs on Sentimental Value. Yo Kim Trrier talked about a little bit when I interviewed him on the show about how he picks music. and how he does a similar thing with kind of playlists and isn't really like one of the things that they're really good at and I do feel like a lot of these guys were inspired by Scorsese Overtime is they're not really like stuck on time frame

or trying to match anything. It's just like what's the feeling I want to evoke when I pick and that's what I'm looking for. I added boots from 28 years later, which we first saw in the trailer but is actually in the film, the reading of the Kipling poem. Firework from Eddington? This would have been on mine.

Really funny. Also, Arias are just using pop music, like, against all of us. Yes, poking us. I thought the punk rocker drop again to Superman was fun. Not a song I really cared about before, but it kind of gave me some warmth towards it after that. Did you add this last one? No, you did, but I would have. Yeah. And then everybody wants to rule the world from Marty Supreme. And there's a couple of others from Marty that I think are good. There's probably others out there, but it's good year for needle drops. Yeah. Oscars are not going to do it.

No. I mean also. On my Oscars Palooza, they will do it. I do think this reminds me that, like, a category that's, like, too amorphous and two, like, MTV movie awards to actually, but still would be fun, would be best ending. Like, you know, because two of these are actually, like, how they've ended the movie and it's, and it's hard to land a movie. Totally. No, that's a great point. And the feeling you want to give an audience on the way out is such a, such a challenge. With that in mind, I think also that Bobby Gentry song at the end of Eddington, which is, like, not exultant is actually.

quite devastating and funny and dark. But that's another good example of what you're describing. Okay, next question. We're moving on. Did you see Ari Aster wanted to use Empire State of Mind before landing on firework? Really? Yes. I can't imagine it any other way.

Firework is perfect. I just thought, I feel like there's an, is there an Eddington question here? There is. Okay. I was going to say, I feel like we got to address that. What's next? Next question comes from Anthony. My question is regarding the account.

Academies demonstrated disinterest in sequels. Wicked last year was an Academy darling, and this year they basically spit on its face. To a lesser degree, they also didn't really care much for Avatar, Fire, and Ash. Despite being generally regarded as much better than Dune Part 1, Dune Part 2 only got half the nominations as Part 1. It's my understanding that similarly to Wicked for Good, Dune Messiah has a polarizing final act? Do you think Dune Messiah is destined to a similar fate

and will barely factor into the awards race next season? Good question. I don't think it's going to win best picture, you know, knowing what I know about the plot, even though apparently Chris and I were misinformed. And also knowing what I know about the rest of the awards game landscape next year, which involves a Christopher Nolan movie and a Stevens Bilberg movie. Though both summer blockbusters and not necessarily destined for the Academy Awards. I think that's true.

I think, by the way, I don't have a gut check Oscar like leading contender right now. I was looking at the slate, just putting that out there. Okay. Not that anybody gives a shit. Right. I don't think it'll be shut out like wicked. Like if I had to place my bets today. But I know you've been talking a lot about Return of the King and you even when we talked about the kind of muted reception for June Part 2 at the Oscars.

And you were like, well, I bet they're waiting. Like, I bet they're waiting. I don't know if they're waiting. I think it's really ultimately a question of what is it up against? because in a softer year, in an ANORA-type year, you could very easily make the case that Villeneuve will be moving on to James Bond after this. It's an appropriate time to recognize his work.

You know, you mentioned that there's a Nolan movie this year, but Nolan just won in the biggest and grandest way you could ever win a year ago. Right. So I don't know if there will be as much fetidization of Odyssey, even if it's a huge hit. You know, Avatar or The Way of Water, also in the same way as Dune Part 2,

took a big hit nominations-wise from the original avatar. The original avatar, I think, had like 10 nominations, maybe more. And I think the way of water only had a few. It did get best picture, just like Dune Part 2 did. Wicked for Good did not. Look, Wicked for 2 was kind of reviled. I mean, people were mocking it. I felt like there was immediate blowback to both of our Wicked episodes.

The blowback for Wicked for Good was like half a day long. And then a lot more people got a chance to see it. And they saw that, like, they shouldn't have stretched that movie that story out. And that is one difference of Wicked and Wicked for Good and everything else we're talking about, which is... It cut something in half. Exactly. Versus and so... And honestly, like Avatar Fire and Ash felt like it was a little bit cut in half from Avatar the Way of Water.

And it also did not make it into best pictures. People can feel that. Yeah. They can tell when something just doesn't feel constructed in this way. Now, Dune Part 3, as you know, I haven't really been spending any time reading it or trying to figure out what's going on there. But it does seem like they're going to end up having to do some massaging around the Herbert text to make that totally coherent. I'm not really sure.

Return of the King was kind of a comet. You know, that whole stretch of movies, even when Jackson tried to kind of recreate it with the Hobbit movies, it was received like very blotly, you know? And, you know, like stuff, other examples of this, like the Harry Potter films, which are widely liked and always successful, never really got like that kind of Oscar recognition.

There was just a little bit of a bias towards fantasy, sci-fi, event storytelling of this kind. So maybe that would be a sign of it evolving, but to me, Dune Part 3 is not like locked in at number one in the best picture race for next year. What's next? Next question comes from Harry and moved up the editing question. I know Sean ranks it highly and many other people I know loved it,

yet it was absent from any and all awards talk before the season and has been absent from every award show since. Did this movie ever stand a chance? And did one battle after another replace it as the capturing what it's like in America movie. Which Oscar categories would you guys nominated in? Well, I think part of the success of Eddington, which I also just really liked and was definitely in my top 10 of the year,

is that it does not pull punches, and thus it did not cater to the Oscars at all, and it would never have been nominated. And I think an Eddington that was nominated for the Oscars is an Eddington that, like, I wouldn't have liked. And, like, Ariasher really goes for it. it and that and and does not care and is trying to alienate you. I mean, that is the part, the point of the movie in some respect is that you're supposed to

feel completely grossed out and despairing about this very true and also, you know, fun house mirror version of the world that we're living in. And it and it's both at the same time. It is in many ways like the most accurate movie of the last year. But it's, it's provoking. I never expected it. to be nominated. I didn't either.

I will say, I don't think Kahn was the right launch pad for the film. And, you know, there has been a big wave of people in the world of movie watching

who are, you know, kind of like Eddington Innocent. We mistreated this movie. The discourse was really bad. I think Adam may have made a comment about that in our year-end episode

about the best movies. This is my number two movie. I think this is the best thing Ari's ever done. You know, like it's been fun just kind of watching him over time.

get more and more confident with going for things that are like this and not being not being worried about the um the kind of like the trappings of genre like and just making a movie that is about something real even if it's in a very sort of like outlandish satirical style and i agree with what you're saying that it would be very hard for a movie like this to be loved it's not designed to be loved but if it didn't come out it can if it came out at there's a where's the inappropriate place for this movie to have come out because it was it was a way's it was released in theaters in July. So if it played the New York Film Festival,

and some of the movies that didn't hit as hard as we thought might be hitting, like as the J. Kelly's were falling away, you know, as the fire and ashes don't quite reach the summit, as even stuff like it was just an accident, not seeming as strong as it did, coming out of Cannes. Like, Eddington had no chance of winning the Palm Door either. Like, it was not really widely like there. You might have said, like, wow, this is almost like a fascinating follow-up to one bad, after another. Like, this is the real coin.

And, you know, honestly, things in America suck right now. People are really angry and justifiably about what's happening in the country. And they've gotten worse throughout this year. And I think that that...

He might have been able to tap into something in this electorate with some of the kind of, like, not just the rage, but the, like, completely scooped out cynicism of that movie,

where it's like, we are so fucking screwed and we are being completely, controlled and manipulated by powers that are way beyond our reach, that it might have had a little bit more resonance. I think you're right that in the construction of the movie, it's hard. Like, I appreciate the nihilism at the end of the film,

but I still think that that, like, people vote for some shred of hope. They vote for. But they vote for American Girl at the end of one battle after another, even if you don't, even if that's like an ambiguous, like, is it going to be? I don't know, man. I already referenced Network today. Like, Network did do. really, really well at the Academy Awards. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a movie that

kind of like sees the future by looking at the past could get wrecking. I'm just trying to find like the use case for getting into the race more. Like it had no chance. Like it was at no precursors. This is very clearly to me a really gifted filmmaker working with like big stars. Network didn't win. Rocky did. Yeah. You know? Over network and all the president's met. I'm just talking about getting nominated. I totally. I think that's true. I mean, the other thing is that I wonder how I think Eddington is like an incredible an incredible American film about America in this particular moment

but like internationally do people like it or do they think it's they really get it I think I think international audiences love when America says like God we suck so much I think that they do but I do overseas don't like America right now no no it's not that I sometimes find that a more simplified version of like this is bad and this is good

translates more outside of America. And this is like, you know, it's, it is ugly. And like America is really fucked up. And this movie knows it, but it's kind of self-loathing. And, you know, I just, I don't know how much it travels. It's really, we'll never know. We'll never know. It's an interesting question.

And I hope if people haven't had a chance to see that movie that they check it out. I think it's on HBO Max right now. All right, what's next? Next question comes from Brendan. Much like with Parasite in 2019, where early wins on Oscar night got you excited about where the night could lead, what award early in the broadcast on Oscar night this year would make you feel differently about a film's fate immediately? Okay, so supporting actor and actress usually go pretty early. I'll both go at the top of the show.

If it's a Delroy Lindo, Wunmi Masaka, sweep. Oh, if they sweep, forget it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's over. If they sweep, it's over. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think even if just one of the two gets in, I will, that will, my antenna will immediately go up. For sure. Let's see.

What else? So, you know, traditional. And likewise, if Benicio or Sean Penwin, that might also be an indicator. Right. That one battle is really strong. Because that's a challenge when you've got two nominees from the same film in a category. Tiana Taylor wins. What's your read?

Doesn't move me as much. Okay. Because I think she's the favorite in the category right now. I'm still feeling Amy Madigan, ultimately, because I think Tiana Taylor's character is divisive. Yes. But to me, I think the point you made is the best one. That's like Delroy or One Meemisaku getting love would be a real huge indicator.

And then in editing, cinematography, anything else that... I think if one battle doesn't get cinematography, that's notable. And it's likewise with editing. If it doesn't get either of those, it doesn't mean that it's definitively not going to win. It's just like, okay. So it's going to be a little weaker below the line. And what does that mean for us in these races? I think it's the acting. The acting tells the story. I mean, we talked already about, I think there is a real chance. I like, and it would be deserving if sinners picks up production design, costume design, a score. You're going to see a lot of those earlier below the line categories. I don't know if that necessarily translates into a director and picture. It could. But the acting usually tells you. Like, as you said, Mikey Madison with a Nora winning. We saw Michelle Yeo and Jamie Lee Curtis winning for everything ever all at once.

saw Killian Murphy winning for Oppenheimer. Like of late, there has always been, there has often been one big acting award affixed to the best picture winner. Nomadland, Francis McNorman winning for a third time. That was really strange. Troy Kotzer winning for Coda in 2022. Like, there's almost always an acting award affixed to a best picture winner. So we'll have a sense of the vibe within the first 10 minutes of the telecast probably. Okay, let's do two more.

Okay, next one comes from Rob. With only three Best Picture nominees coming from fall festivals this year and four last year, do you think the fall festivals are losing some of their steam as a place where best picture hopefuls must premiere? Seems like the last two years, plus Oppenheimer, everything everywhere all at once, and Coda, show that maybe fall festivals don't have the same juice as they once had. What do you make of this trend? I think it's really interesting. I think it's true.

Yeah. And I mean, as you have already pointed out in the doc this year, like we've seen examples this year of movies not going to festivals. Most specifically, one battle after another. Very purposefully made that choice, yes. Sinners was also not a fall festival. Marty Supreme was like a surprise New York festival screening. Not really a festival movie. Yeah.

And I think some of that was just because that's when it was done. But I do, you know, there are two from Venice, I think. Two from Venice. Two from Cannes. Yeah. One from Telluride. I think that's it, right? One from New York, if you're counting.

Marty. Yeah. And that's six out of four, five, six out of ten. Yeah, I mean, this is fall festivals was the question. So, you know, ultimately I think it's going to be, what is it? It's Frankenstein. It's Hamnet. Bagonia.

What's the fourth? Nothing from Toronto. Marty Supreme. Marty Supreme, I guess, if you can consider New York. And that's it. Right. So that's interesting. I think you made that point earlier in this conversation about certain films being

kind of targeted. Like, Hammondon Telly Ride was a match made in it. That was a perfect bit of programming. It was a perfect audience for that movie. That audience flipped for it. It went very well. Netflix is so tied in right now. with Venice, that they're basically premiering almost everything in that space.

I wonder if they think that's effective. You know, Jay Kelly and House of Dynamite, I thought did, Jay Kelly didn't do very well out of Venice. House of Dynamite did very well, but neither of those translated ultimately. Frankenstein's bump really came in Toronto. That was when it really kind of swung back because it didn't play well a telleride when I was there at all. And our friend David Sims came on the podcast and pointed out that Jay Kelly is the most

Toronto movie that has ever existed and would that have gone differently? So it might have. I think is wise. You know, I think one battle didn't play because my understanding is that PTA doesn't really like the festival scene. And he's premiered movies at festivals, but that's not really what he wanted to do with this. And sinners in one battle are, they're audience movies. Yeah. They're mainstream movies.

They're not, they're not like little movies that could. There are 100 million dollar movies that are meant to be seen widely. And, you know, a lot of movies that have won recently have had that, that color and shape. Oppenheimer was never going to be a film festival movie. So I don't know if it's that the film festivals are not as important, but they may not be as effective a launch pad. And obviously the other knockdown effect of this is just the can is much stronger. You know, the can influences the best picture race way more than it did 20 years ago.

And so even though it was just an accident didn't get in and no other choice didn't get in and, you know, some of these other films that Eddington didn't get in out of Cannes. Well, no other choice was Venice. That was Venice, right, right. Right. But even still, they're starting the conversation there in a way, Sarat getting the conversation started there as well. So I think that they're kind of pulling a little bit of energy away from specifically Venice and Telluride. I think are getting a little bit of their life force pulled by Cannes. At Telluride in particular, they do an amazing job of this.

They tend to show basically the five best movies that played at Cannes at that festival at that festival. It's a great way to see them if you love going to film festivals. Those are sometimes North American premieres, but they're not real proper film festival premieres. So I guess it's something that we can look at as we analyze the slate this year. Okay, one more question, and then we'll quickly do our power rankings. Last question comes from Kelsey. Amanda quotes the iconic Olivia Coleman speech all the time. What are your other favorite acceptance speeches?

I shouted out Jack Lemon in 1974 because he's so surprised that he's won for Save the Tiger. And he gives a really nice speech, but then he says something that always sticks in my mind where he says something, where he kind of acknowledges the discourse. And he says, you know, a lot of people are saying that this prize has problems and isn't what it once was. Whether that's true or not, and it may be true,

I just want to say, I feel good about this. And it's like the weirdest is like he was online that day kind of acknowledgement. And I don't know contextually. But it's like we think of 1974 is this incredible period in American film history. That that was really the absolute apex of the new Hollywood.

And he's, you know, a celebrated and beloved actor winning for a leading part in like a stormy character drama about a man going through kind of a midlife crisis. And he's like, are the Oscars washed? Perhaps. But I'm happy to have this one. So I think of that. And then I thought immediately of Bong Joon Ho shouting out Scorsese and Tarantino

when he won for Best Director, which I thought was just a great moment. And I'm into lineages. I like when a filmmaker is part of a lineage. And that was such a special moment. into like our one of the last questions, that was when we really knew that the parasite thing was happening and you couldn't, you couldn't believe it. And he was so moved and also so engaged with what it meant to win that particular award with that group of nominees. Yes. Exactly. What else? Marriand Cotillard is always the one that I think of just because of the last line

where she's like, it is true. There are some angels in this city tonight. I just, I mean, it's great. Very French. Yeah, very French, really good. She was wearing a great dress. And then Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, obviously. Just yelling at people. So hyped. And like I was the formative age for that. That's when the Oscars came alive to me. Yeah.

Someone reminded me of, who was it? The guy who edited everything everywhere at once, whose name escapes me now. And he's like, this is only my second movie. This is crazy, bro. That was a really good one. There's obviously a lot of moments like that in history. But the speech that I was referencing before that I rewatched was

Jeff Bridge is winning for Country Strong. Country Strong, not Country Strong. Country Strong as the Gwyneth Paltrow movie. That's right. Something heart. Country heart. Jeff Bridges. Country heart. Heart of the country.

Oscar. Let's see. Crazy Heart. Crazy Heart. Wow. It comes for us all. Crazy Heart. When he won for Crazy Heart. He got a massive standing ovation.

He had been dominating all the precursors. It was a foregone conclusion that he was going to win. It was one of the years when they had very famous people come out and introduce each of the nominees and be like, Jim Johnson. It was an absolute pleasure to work with you. on the film. Skaibis 2. Thank you for all your service in Hollywood. And I felt like Jeff Bridges was presiding over something that is gone.

And he acknowledged in that speech how much his parents loved show business. Because, you know, Boyd Bridges is his dad. And Jeff Bridges got his star as a teenager on, you know, on films and television shows, working alongside of his dad and his brother. And watching that last night, I kind of felt like that is gone. something different is happening. What's happening now is interesting and fun, and it's been fun to actually attract it over the last five or so years

to look closely at like, wow, everything everywhere at once. Anora. Yeah. Nomadland. Like these are best picture winners. And performances from these movies are winning. And these filmmakers don't look like the filmmakers who were winning 25 years ago. But we got addicted to this stuff.

Yeah. With the like, you know, old stuffy, everyone's in the same black tuxedo. and there's a kind of like a rigidity and a kind of grace to it. But it's like secretly racist and weird and exclusionary. But let's not think about that right now because Jeff Bridges is winning an Academy Award. And Jack Nicholson is sitting in the front row. Yes. Yes. Specifically, he's literally there for that show.

So, yeah, I don't know. That popped into my head for some reason. That's my final thought about that. Power rankings. Yeah. So you made a comment when the nominations were announced that we had. had been ignoring Bagonia. And we didn't have it on the list.

And I said, no, no, no, we had it. We had it. And I was wrong. We did not have it. We did not have it. I don't know why. We didn't have it in November either. And I don't know why. We should have had it. When you look back at this list, December 19th was the last time we did this over a month ago. This was before the Bafta short lists and all that stuff. Pre-Baptist shortlist, pre-BGA, pre-DGA, pre-Globes, pre-Globes, pre-all all that stuff. We didn't have any of that information. We did have the Oscar shortlist. So we put Sarat on the list at 10. It was kind of a, it was a little. It was a little A little snack.

Well, we were being cute. A little treat. Yeah. Something to make herself smile. It was in the air. Nine was the secret agent. Eight was trained dreams. Seven was sentimental value.

Six was Frankenstein. Five was Marty Supreme. Four was just an accident. Three was Hamnet. Two was sinners. Yeah. One was one battle after another. Now, all you got to do is swap F1 for Surat and swap Bagonia for it was just an accident.

And this is pretty darn good. I don't think Bougonia is sitting at number four, though. No, I think it's probably more like number nine. Yeah, and I think sentimental value is at four. Yes, I agree with that. So, I mean, do you want to just keep that? Would you, do you, do you, let's look at how it should go. Okay.

Is one battle after another still on top? I think yes. But, I mean, listen, listen, we did that. We just did this. We just did this. Let's freeze this moment in time. No, let's freeze this moment in time. Yeah.

Okay. If on March 15th, sinners wins. Yeah. And we open the show and you look down the barrel of the camera. I'll say I was wrong. And you'll say on January 26th, I told you, dear listener, that one battle after another, nothing to fear. You are in the poll position. That's not what I said.

And you're already saying, sinners winning would be cool. It's not my number one movie of the year, but you can't put, like, it's not me against sinners. I just think. more important are you being right or things being cool? That's really tough. I honestly don't know. I know. That's the ultimate paradox. Yeah, that's really tough. The problem is you'll never be cool, but you can sometimes be right. I'm genuinely very cool. And that's fine. Many people are saying. I still just think based on what we know, that it is probably one battle. Okay. Including all of the racism that you just talked about of

historical Oscars Pass. I think that's one of the biggest things being held against it. Let's be real. That and then the snobbishness about genre movies. The vampire stuff, yeah. I agree. Okay, so one battle at one. Sinners at number two. I believe Hamann is still number three. I think so as well.

I think people saw that win at the Golden Globes. It's a different kind of film. It's a different kind of period film relative to everything else that is on here with the exception, I guess, of Frankenstein. Number four, is it Marty Supreme? I think it's sentimental value. They both have nine. Well, but I think that sentimental value is. It has four acting noms.

Exactly. And, you know, the international. Screenplay director. It has, I mean, Marty has both of those. Marty has those as well, but it doesn't have as many acting noms. But it has. How on the flip side of this case.

Okay. Marty having more below the line stuff could make it more powerful throughout the academy. Having production design, having, has editing, right? Yeah. You know, what are the other ones? The costumes, you know, like that's, those are pretty interesting nominations for the movie.

And I think they're deserving. And it was my second favorite movie of the year. But I said during the nominations, sentimental value, I feel is very strong. It got even more acting nominations. Elle Fanning got nominated. Bless her. She had an amazing year.

We didn't talk about that because you haven't seen Predator Badlands. No, but I've heard a lot about it. But she was so charming in Predator Badlands. She's great. She's deserving somewhere forever. But Rachel Kemp. Yeah, but listen. I just.

They would, so they would make that movie. Netflix would make that movie with Rachel Kemp. Yeah. But they would not make it with Renata Rinesva. What do you think about that? You think that they are underestimating their international viewership. Good note. Good note.

I'll let Gustav Borg know that and his producing partner. What's up with Netflix Scandinavia? Good question. Is that how they do it? I don't know. They made Borgon, right? They made the new season of Borgon, Netflix. Is that a fact?

I think they made a new season. I don't remember if I watched it or not. Very cool. Borgon? Yeah, I never watched this. Okay, it's good. Um, you asked me that in a very curious way. Borgian? Uh, hardly newer. Okay. I would say sentimental value four, Marty at five, yeah.

Frankenstein at six. Okay. Train dream seven. Train dream seven. Or do you want secret agent seven, train dreams eight? I think I don't know and it doesn't matter because this is made up. I know. But I'm thinking about it. I think Secret Agent 7, Train Dreams 8. I think you're right. Thank you. Because Wagner Moore got in. Exactly.

And Joel Edgerton did not. Exactly. Okay. So that leaves us with F1 and Bagonia. Bagonia 9. Are you sure about this? Well, I'm sure. No, I'm not sure.

F1 has more nominations. No, they have the same number of nominations. They both have three. Is that correct? Let's see. F1 has sound editing film. Is that it? That sounds right.

Visual effects? Does F1? I don't think it. It has a visual effects. A visual effects nominees. I mean, okay. It does. You're right.

Okay, so that's four. So Begonia has Emma Stone, screenplay, score, best picture. Four. So they both have four. Wow. Wow. What a race. We'll get the meaningless number nine spot on our list.

Oh, God. This is everything. That we'll never know the answer to you because they don't release the tallies. This is everything to me. Fine. F1. Did Bagonia also get a PGA? Bagonia PGA? I think it did. PGA award nominations, but yes, it did.

I think it did. Okay. I'll say Bagonia 9 F1, 10. Okay. If you want to flip it, that's fine with me. What we need to focus on is you having the strength of your own convictions. You know? You need to, you.

Did you see the clip that Jack pulled with what I said? Yes, I watched it. And I was mostly concerned with your skin tone. And then Jack informed me that he like desaturated it to make it look like old timing. Many people are wondering about my skin tone. There's just nothing I can do about it. I don't really know. I wish I could.

I'm trying. I'm trying to help. I'm doing what I can on a day-to-day basis. No makeup here. This is the real me. This is as close as you're going to get to the real me. I should have predicted F1, and that was stupid. And what I said in October was 100% right.

And my instincts specifically around it being a film that did very well internationally are the reason why it's here. F1 is an international sport. Okay. Do you want to put it at number nine or number 10? No, number 10. We're done. The power rankings are as follows.

Number 10, F1, number nine, begonia, number eight, train dreams, number seven, the secret agent. Number six, Frankenstein, number five, Marty Supreme, number four, sentimental value. Number three, Hamnet, number two, six. Sinners number one, one battle after another. Now, we will talk about the BAFTA nominations on Thursday. Okay. So that is really the last major event.

I would say that has significant influence on how we feel about a lot of this stuff, with the exception of the actual BAFTA's ceremony and the actor awards. Those are really the last two things that we're going to see. So there won't be a ton of Oscar talk on the show until we get into March. There's not a ton of opportunity. we do have a fun Oscar themes draft coming in February, but post-bafters, it'll be a little bit of a breather, which I think is much needed.

Well, that does it. That's it. Thanks to our producer, Jack Sanders, for his work on this episode and for reading those questions and collecting those wonderful questions. Thank you to the listeners and watchers of this show for asking such great questions and being so engaged in this kind of pretty normal, chill award season.

Yeah. It actually has not been weird. Have you noticed that? Yeah, it's early. It's early. Yeah, fair enough. We still have six weeks to go. As I mentioned, three hours on Melania coming later this week.

Should be a good episode. We'll see you then.