The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Bucs-Cowboys Classic! Plus: Million-Dollar Picks and a Shocking Super Bowl Prediction With Peter Schrager

Episode Date: September 10, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons shares his thoughts on the Buccaneers narrowly beating the Cowboys in the NFL season opener (1:40), before he is joined by NFL Network’s Peter Schrager to go over some last-second NFL futures bets (18:48). Bill closes the show with his Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 1 (46:07). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fantasy football is back, and you don't want your team to suck. My favorite fantasy football punishment I've ever heard is the last place guy had to spend 24 hours in a waffle house, and every waffle he ate was one hour off of his count. I want numbers. How many did he end up eating? 12 waffles in 12 hours. I'm Danny Heifetz. I'm Danny Kelly.

And I'm Craig Horlbeck. We host the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a waffle house, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a Waffle House, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sportsbook is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year.

I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong. You could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel,

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where we launch the Ringer Gambling Show. If you missed Wednesday's podcast, Warren Sharp, Ben Solak, a lot of future stuff. Really, really good podcasts.

I'm so glad we put those two together. And then Joe House and Sharp are going to be on Friday's pod which should be up probably a little bit after this one goes up but they'll be looking at week one picks. Don't ever forget House is the worst gambler on the planet. So you get to hear him again.

Just go against him. Just be Bizarro House. You'll be fine. You'll make some money this year. Speaking of making money, million dollar picks coming up in a second. Me and Peter Schrager. First, I'm going to talk at the top about Bucks, Cowboys, our first football game of the year. So excited. So excited. So excited. Let's go. Let's bring in the guys from Pearl Jam. Here we go. All right, taping this a little after 9 o'clock on Thursday. Just watched Bucks-Cowboys. Wanted some quick thoughts before we get to Schrager and Million Dollar Picks. I kept this spot open at the top of the pod,

just kind of hoping that this game was going to be good. It was incredible. It was so much fun. I don't know whether I missed the NFL or whether this game was awesome or both, but the big takeaways, this is a 1A and a 1B for me. The 1A is Dak looked pretty good. You know, I had my real doubts about how is he going to feel like with guys rolling around his feet?

Is his shoulder all right? I didn't feel like his arm was 100%, but he was really good in this game. And for the Cowboys to move the ball up and down the field, he threw for 403 yards, 58 passing attempts. They had no rushing game at all. Elliott was 11 for 33.

But for them to move the ball like they did against, I think a top five defense for Tampa is really encouraging for Dallas. So two questions he answered for me. One, how's Dak gonna look? He looked really good with some room for some upside as he gets 100% healthy over the course of the year, hopefully. And then second, I had no idea what to do with the NFC East.

I was thinking Washington, and maybe Washington would still be the pick. I even, I think, bet on Washington a little bit, but I just thought, I didn't trust the Dallas thing. I didn't trust Dak. I didn't think their defense was going to be good. And by the way, it's really not good, but their offense is so good that, you know, you got to default to what does somebody do the best, whether it's like in the league and the conference or in their own

division, Dallas's offense is going to be better than anything else in the NFC East. And this is a perfect scenario for the rest of us who are Cowboys fans, where it's like Dallas is really entertaining. We don't actually have to worry about them winning a Super Bowl because they won't, but they're really entertaining. They're in the mix. I love watching C.D. Lamb. C.D. Lamb ended with, he was seven for 104. It felt like he could have had more. I thought Dak missed him a couple times. He had at least one, there was a miscommunication, but it just seemed like he was open all game. And it's so funny. Everybody does so much homework now before the year and we all have the same fantasy sleepers. I think everybody pretty much agreed CeeDee Lamb was going to be

awesome this year. Then he had the Hard Knocks informational video and it's like, oh yeah, CeeDee Lamb. And people are spending big money on him in auctions and stuff. And then you watch him in the game. It's like, oh yeah, this makes sense. This guy's incredible. He had that one play where it was like the fake hesitation screen that I'm not sure I've ever seen before. I pray to God, Andy Reid doesn't incorporate that with the Tyreek Hill playbook. But he kind of stopped. And then all of a sudden, he just blew by whoever the D-back was and was able to get the touchdown. But holy shit.

So he looked great. And if you're a Cowboys fan, you just got to be psyched that the team's going to be fun to watch. Now, you also have Mike McCarthy as your coach. I don't know whether I can say Dallas gave away this game despite all the dumb field goal decisions.

I would have basically never kicked a field goal if it was fourth and three or less, which they were in that situation a couple times. I just think whenever they wanted, it seemed like they could get four yards, five yards with their passing. But some bizarre coaching decisions on the McCarthy side, I'm sure they'll be litigated ad nauseum on the TV shows the next day. So I don't feel like they necessarily 100% gave away the game because on the flip side, Tampa is putting away the game with four minutes left, 452. Godwin does the spin move near the two-yard line. What are the odds that's going to work out? And ends up helmet on the ball, fumbles. And instead of them about to go up, it would have been 34-26 with either the PAT or their two-point, whatever they decided to do, probably PAT. All of a sudden, Dallas has the ball back.

Dallas comes down. Now, here's if I'm a Dallas fan, here's the part that haunts me. They get the first down on the third and 11 to CeeDee Lamb. And then they have that weird series where it's like first down, kind of a hesitation play where all of a sudden he's throwing CeeDee Lamb, throws it over his head. Second down, Zeke, I think runs for like five. Third down, hold. And then third down again, they get to play over the middle of this, set up a field goal. But they get a first down there, the game's over. So as

everyone's blowing the Cowboys offense, and I just did it for a couple of minutes there, if you're really the best offense in the league, which they're not, but maybe they have a chance to be the best offense in the NFC, get the first down on that. You have to. The game's over if you get the first down. All right. So I guess a moral victory for the Cowboys because their fans didn't really know what to expect. You're thinking, is this a 7-10 team? 8-9, 9-8. Now you're thinking, we have one of the best offenses in the league. We have receivers

that are open all over the place. We actually had some really fun designs on some of the plays and guys moving around. I thought there was some actual creativity in the Jason Garrett era. If you're a Dallas fan, you're like, we can win the division. We'll see what happens with Washington. They played the Chargers on Sunday.

They might have gotten lucky with an Austin Eckler injury. We'll see if he plays on Sunday. But we'll know more when we watch Washington. It's hard for me to believe Washington's defense is better than Dallas' offense. And then you look at the Dallas schedule the rest of the way. It's tough to start at 0-1, but they got the Chargers next week at LA. That game is basically going to be a home game for them.

That will be all Dallas fans. Eagles at home Monday night. Carolina at home. Giants at home. It's realistic they're going to be 3-2 or 4-1 if they can keep everybody healthy. I think the Chargers are good, but I think that's going to be a really tough game for the Chargers.

It's a bummer to have a home game where the other team has all the fans. So if they can get out of that four and one, they play out to Pat's week six, bye. And then Dallas goes at Vikings, Broncos, Falcons home. Then they have a really tough stretch at Chiefs, Thanksgiving game against the Raiders, at Saints goes at Vikings. Broncos, Falcons home. Then they have a really tough stretch at Chiefs. Thanksgiving game against the Raiders at Saints at Washington. But then they finish at Giants. Home Washington on a Sunday night.

Home Cardinals at Eagles. From what I saw tonight, if they can stay healthy, I think they can go 9-8, 10-7. And that might be enough in the NFC East. Now, if Washington's good too, who knows? Maybe it'll be a dogfight. But Dallas answered some questions for me today. I really was not a believer. And now I'm kind of like, all right, at least we know that offense is going to be awesome. Now, second big thing for me, this would be 1B. Tom Brady's another one

where it's like, all right, he's the best quarterback of all time. He just won the Super Bowl, but he's now 44 years old. How do we know? See this with, you know, I remember the last couple of years with Kobe Bryant after he blew out his Achilles and kind of waiting for it to come back. And he gradually realized, oh, it's not going to come back. He's at a different point of his career now.

Peyton Manning had that one good Bronco season. And then as his shoulder and his neck started to deteriorate, you're like, oh, he's at a different point of his career. We see this with all these guys. Drew Brees, it happened to. Brady looks better than he's looked in a couple years. He threw some deep balls. All of his deep balls were on point,

on target, perfect. This was a guy, the last couple years with the Pats, where on deep balls, now you could say like, well, his receivers are better now. Well, I'm just telling you, he wasn't this accurate on deep balls and he wasn't flinging around like this. A lot of it with the Pats, especially those last couple of years, were very controlled, shorter throws, very systemy. And he was very careful about unleashing it because he just wasn't accurate anymore. He has gone to another level. I mean, his fucking hair, he looks like Rick Astley.

Did you see him in the Subway ad? What is going on? I guarantee you I had way more hair than Tom Brady in the end of the 2000s. And that guy now has more hair than I do. And I have a great head of hair. I'll be honest. But his hair just, he's become an alien. I don't even know if we're the member of the same species. We see actors where they figure out a way to look younger, like John Cusack, Matthew McConaughey. There's some hair chicanery. Obviously Brady's had some hair chicanery, but he just looks fucking incredible. He looks like he's drinking from some water fountain that is filled with all of these nutrients and baby hemoglobin and legal HDH and TB12 liquid.

I don't know what to make of it. He looked awesome tonight. And Dallas's defense isn't good, but man, he was moving around. I just thought he was flinging it. His receivers let him down a couple times. There was a couple plays where the D-backs just barely got a fingertip on plays

that seemed like it was going to be a good play for Tampa, but he was 32 for 50. He had two picks. One of them wasn't great. The other was nothing you could do about it, but here's the thing with Brady. We all had the same thought. Dallas doesn't put the game away. Brady gets a ball back under

90 seconds left. You're just like, would you bet your life on Brady coming through here? Or would you bet your life against Brady coming through here? We're all betting our life on Brady still. He's 44 years old. It makes no fucking sense. This is something I think Belichick a few years ago just played the odds when they wouldn't extend him and give him the three-year deal and just make it a guarantee that he retired as a Patriot. Because at some point you have to look at it and potentially have a third dynasty here? We're going to get to my Super Bowl pick with Peter Schrager. And trust me, Brady's going to be involved in that. But you think like the 01, 03, 04, he wins three Super Bowls in four years. They make the 2006 title game. They make the Super Bowl in 2007. That whole run is kind of an era.

And then there's the second era where they make the 2011 Super Bowl and then in 2014 and 15 and 17, they were in all the ones with the Pats where he wins three more. That's kind of an era. We wouldn't call either of them a dynasty, but it's a mini dynasty each time. And now he's in this situation with the Bucs where it's like they clearly have the best team in the NFC. I don't know about the running game. I mean, both sides. Zeke sucked today. If you spent $58 on your fantasy team on Zeke,

you're probably having a stroke right now. I think this was just a weird game, but I wouldn't panic on that yet. Fournette looked terrible. Ronald Jones looked just as bad. Bernard, I think he was playing, he had one big catch there, but people are saying he's not healthy. But playoff Lenny was not there tonight. And it seems like they're just going to fling him more. Now, on the flip side, Grock looked as good as he's looked in a few years. Near the end on the pats, he was just lumbering. And now he looks completely refreshed. He was, I thought, really, really, really, really effective today. Eight

catches, nine yards, two touchdowns. But that looked like 2015 Gronk. I mean, Jesus Christ. And then Antonio Brown, five for 121, some big plays. And it actually felt like he probably could add more. Godwin was nine for 105. He dropped that one long ball. He had a terrible fumble that kept the game alive for the Cowboys. Evans, who yet again, doesn't seem like he's 100%, but he was the only one that didn't do anything. But the team's loaded. Brady's in a great spot. And it's just impossible for me to believe that it's 2021.

I had Peyton Manning on my podcast last week. Peyton Manning's been retired now for, I don't know, five years. He just got in the Hall of Fame. He's doing a Monday Night Football thing. Brady's his peer. They came into the league, I think, one year apart. He's long gone from football, and Brady's still going.

I remember he always said, I think I can play until I'm 45. Well, maybe we should stretch that. Maybe he can play until he's 47, 48. There's no atrophy at all. It's a long season. I get it. He's going to take a couple hits at some point. I get it. He's going to take a couple hits at some point. I get it. But from what we saw tonight, it doesn't seem like there's any atrophy. So holy shit.

Could this be his third kind of run? Like big picture multi-year run? Very possible. I guess the only other question with this game is the Godwin push-off for the game clinching first down. It looked like a push-off in the moment. I would have been shocked if they called that at that moment in the game for the home team. I also thought there was a lot of contact on both sides. When you watch the replay, it's like,

oh, that was definitely a push-off. And this leads to, like, you know, if they had the ability to challenge these pass interferences, which I think it was two years ago they had that. I'm sure the Bucks, I'm sorry, the Cowboys would have challenged that. And I don't know, did they overturn that? Maybe. We had that rule that year and every time we thought something was going to get overturned, it never got overturned. So, you know, I go back to this. Did it feel like the right team won tonight? Yeah. Could Dallas have stolen the game? Of course. But when you think like the dumb turnovers Tampa had that just seemed to keep giving Dallas life over and over again, the fact that it just seemed like they could move the ball wherever they wanted, whenever they wanted.

I thought Tampa was a better team and I thought Dallas was looking to be hanging around. But yeah, if you get that push-off call, Dallas wins the game. So back to the Dallas thing, you're feeling great. You showed up, you're going to be really entertaining. You're going to have another coach situation that's going to drive you crazy week to week.

You have more talent on one side of the ball than anybody else has on any side of the ball in their division. And week after week, you're going to be really fun to watch. And the C.D. Lamb thing is just a home run. He's really, really, really fun to watch. So great game all around.

The only other thing before we get to Schrager, the only thing that's changed since we taped was that Gus Edwards blew out his ACL. And I was talking, I don't, I didn't think the Ravens, I didn't have them as one of my seven playoff teams. I was wondering if there was some year from hell potential with them because

they lose Dobbins. They have, you know, Lamar has another COVID issue and the whole thing. And then they lose in the same practice, Gus Edwards and Marcus Peters. And it's just not, we've seen this before. We saw this with San Francisco last year. Every year there's a year from health team.

And I'm really wondering if they're going to's a year from hell team. And I'm really wondering if they're going to be the year from hell team. So for playoff teams, this is who I had even before those two injuries. I had Buffalo, Casey, Cleveland, Tennessee. I have New England, Denver, and the Chargers as my wild cards. So what happened today didn't change my feeling with Baltimore. I probably, people think I'm crazy. People think Baltimore is maybe the best defense in the league. They all think maybe they don't feel as great about it after the Peters thing.

I had in the West, Tampa, the Rams, Washington, and Green Bay winning the divisions. San Fran, Seattle, and New Orleans as my wild cards. And we'll get to the Super Bowl pick with Schrager in a second. But I just think Baltimore, sometimes it's not your year. And sometimes the signs happen in the preseason. I remember there was a Patriots preseason when back when we still had some talent in the eighties. And I think we lost three starters in the same preseason game and they were good starters. And it was just like,

oh, this team's got the stink on it. And I wonder if Baltimore has the stink. So anyway, when we talked about all the games and stuff, including Baltimore was in, we have the Raiders involved in the long shot parlay of the week. This was before we knew about the Gus Edwards thing. I feel even better about that one now, just like the Raiders having a chance to steal that game.

It's all coming up next. Million dollar picks with Peter Schrager. Congratulations, Cowboy fans. I wish this was a Sunday night so we could talk to an agonized cousin, Sal, but we'll do that on Sunday night. We're going to take a break, come back and do million dollar picks and a whole lot more with Peter Schrager. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer.

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And last year, he joined us a couple times for Million Dollar Picks, but specifically during the playoffs where we had one of the great runs of all time. People are still talking about it. Sports documentaries might be made about it. So we're going to come back every Thursday. Peter's going to do Million Dollar Picks with me. We're going to figure it out. You can also

play along with FanDuel, as we discussed at the top of this podcast. With Sal on Sunday, I did a whole bunch of futures for Million Dollar Picks. I'll post those on my Instagram so you can see everything we did. Before we get into the week one slate, which I love,

there's a lot of juicy ones this week. Any last second futures you like? We're taping this before Bucks Cowboys, so the future should be available except for that by the time people hear it. Season wide or are you talking week one wide? What are we working with? You tell me. What are you targeting?

I look at Kyle Pitts, and the more we working with? You tell me, what are you targeting? I look at Kyle Pitts and the more I talk with the guys in Atlanta, the more I think people aren't discussing what he's about to do. The all-time record for receiving yards for a tight end is Mike Ditka in 61 and he threw, and he had like a thousand yards. I think Pitts might go 1400 yards, 1500 yards. So I feel like that's not being discussed enough. I think he might have a monster season as far as futures go drafted him fourth overall. And he's a center piece of that offense. I think that I have them on two of my three fantasy teams. So I'm really, really, really excited to hear that. Yeah. You said Stafford was going to throw for a bunch of yards as long as he's healthy. And Peter King put the number 6,000 out there on his column.

Oh my God. Crazy. Like, I think they're going to throw the ball a bunch all over the yard. I think the Rams are going to put up a lot of points this season. So if you've got a Stafford future bet, I really like that one there. And then Jonathan Taylor is the other guy that I don't hear a lot about right now in Indianapolis, where he was picking up a lot of seam at the end of the season. I'm not sure the odds on him winning the rushing title, but I know that Frank Reich's offense is heavily invested in Jonathan Taylor leading the way in creating opportunities for Carson Wentz in the passing game off of that. Well, I have some of this stuff for you. Jonathan Taylor rushing yards is 11 to one. So you can still get that. How about,

can I give you Kyle Pitts? I agree with you, by the way, I'm all in on that too. Kyle Pitts over under 800.5. And I don't like doing overs for rushing props, but we might make an exception in this case because basically he just has to stay healthy. I don't see how he doesn't at least put up Kelsey stuff. The only thing I can think of against it is just how young he is.

Like, he's not even 21 years old. He can't drink yet. So if he has, like, out 14 or yards, if he does that, this is one of the great young guy seasons in the history of the league. So that's the only thing that gives me pause. And the thing is, it's like, you want to say, all right, slow down. So they drafted him fourth overall and he's a tight end. That's never been done before in the history of the sport. And then they put in this offense and we'll talk a bit about the Falcons, I'm sure. But what he runs, Arthur Smith,

you remember last year was a lot of Johnnie Smith and Anthony Ferkser. And they got a lot of action, a lot of targets. Now you put in this generational tight end. Man, I love that we're talking football and we're jumping right out of the gates of Kyle Pitts talk. Let's go. Well, I'm Fandle right now over six and a half tight touchdowns for Kyle Pitts over basically even he needs seven touchdowns in 17 games. And you win that bet. I really liked that one too. Can I zag on Stafford? Because I'm about to give you my Superbowl pick and been thinking about him

a lot. And then I was listening to Mike and the Mad Dog had a wonderful reunion on Mad Dog's show, which I love. Everything's gambling now. All I see is DraftKings and FanDuel. I loved it. Francesco was out of a cannon with Mad Dog.

He was great. He was talking about, he's like people that, this is why college football took off. People are on TikTok. They're making bets. I'm like, I'm positive you can't make bets on TikTok. But Mad Dog zagged on Matthew Stafford and I was so jealous of it. And he did it in the best Mad Dog with Mike way possible. He's like, hey, Mike, I mean, how many playoff

games has he won? Because I can't remember one of them. I can't remember one playoff game, Mike. And I'm thinking like, so I went, I looked it up and it's pretty grisly. And there's a lot of six and tens, five and elevens. He's obviously had some injuries. He had some shoulder stuff. He's 33. I think, and I include myself, we're making the mistake of just penciling him in. He's somebody I gave up on in Detroit just because I felt like he didn't have the weapons. He didn't have the right scheme.

And I'm just not sure he's that guy that he was when he was 24 and 25 with Megatron. So it was, it was a healthy dose of, of water. But what makes you think that this is just going to be the all time sports movie last 30 minutes run for him? Cause they're all in on it. Like they, they don't have any other, they're in their eyes. Like this is the guy. And I know I could tell you, I spoke to him when we were recording here, but on Wednesday,

they had a practice that was just kind of a last big practice with, with hitting and all that. And it was like the response from one of the coaches to me, and it wasn't McVay, but it was a different coach. Like Stafford's so dialed in, like, it's just such a different deal, dude. Like you don't, so health of course is one thing you could say it, but they've got five wide receivers that all five of them have been told, like, you're going to see action this year. And it's not just woods and cup and van Jefferson who came on late last year, but the Sean Jackson has a significant role in this offense to, to at will the rookie who weighs

about 140 pounds has a significant part in this offense. Then the running backs, the way the game is played now, and how they're going to do it, they're going to do a lot of five wide, but you'll see Henderson, you'll see Michelle, the other guy, and you'll love this name because I think he's going to play and get a lot of looks in this season,

especially week one. Jake Funk, he wears number 34, seventh round pick out of Maryland, tore both ACLs in 2018 and 2019. 2020 has this crazy season for the Terps. No one thinks he's going to get drafted. They draft him and he is going to get action. So they have a three running back system here, five receivers, and the plan is for Stafford to throw it all over the yard. So I picked him to win the Super Bowl. I put faith in that coaching staff. I put faith in that quarterback, but Mad Dog's right. Mad Dog also was very upset with some of

the U.S. Open stuff and the way that Andy Murray was monitoring bathroom breaks from his opponent. I love Mad Dog, by the way. It's just fantastic having those guys back together there. I wish it happened more often. Okay. So we're going to add $3 million pick props to our future total that we'll realize at the end of the year. The first one, what do you think about Stafford passing yards leader 13 to one? I love it.

Yeah. I'm in. Who's who would be your biggest fear going against him for that? Josh Allen. And Herbert? No. Not Herbert as much. Okay.

Yeah. Um, all right. We're putting a hundredK on Matt Stafford, passing yards leader, 13 to 1. We are going to put 100K on that. We're putting 100K on the over for Pitts, 800.5 receiving yards.

And we're putting another 100 on Pitts, 6.5 touchdowns over. The reason I like both of those, they're all in on Stafford. It's actually in McVay's best interest for Stafford to be awesome this year, right? McVay wins not just in football, but just in general as like

with the whole Jared Goff stuff, people being like, oh my God, he finally has a real quarterback. I had no idea. But plus like him betting on Stafford, they gave up picks for him. So he's invested in Stafford winning. And he's publicly put his name all over it, where it's not like, well, let's need... No, like Sean will tell the first one, like, I wanted this guy. So anytime you're out that far on a limb publicly, and it's known that the head coach is the one who maneuvered to make this all happen. Yeah, he wants it to work. And yeah, he wants to put up crazy numbers. good this year, Fields or Jones, maybe both. We might go two for two with guys that they passed on at four. They're going to want to show like,

hey, we did this. First of all, we didn't need Julio. We're better off with Pitts. And we think Matt Ryan, and it all leads to Pitts. There's a third bet I want to do that I want to put 100K on. This came from the Ringer Gambling Show, which is fantastic. Warren Sharp, Ben Solak They did a Wednesday pod They did some bets And I'm just riding Solak on this one He loves Zayven Collins Defensive rookie of the year 13-1

And there's a really compelling case Let me hear the argument Because I know that team real well Let me hear why he thinks Zayven Collins Rookie of the year That's a lot Well, linebackers Because you can pile up the stats This isbackers, because you can pile up the stats.

This is Solak's case. You can pile up the stats, easily tweetable. They have Vance Joseph as the DC. He loves to blitz, so you know he's going to be blitzing. This is the guy they wanted the whole draft. This is Pencilman, him and Simmons. Here we go. We're going to be attacking with our linebackers,

so they're going to be invested in his success. And, um, 13 to one are good odds. So we throw water on this. I'm going to throw water and it's going to be, I don't see it happening with the, with the quality different linebackers that are in this very draft. Micah Parsons plays for a far more decorated team. He's going to be on national television a lot more. He's going to be more well-known. And then Jeremiah Owosu Karamoa from the Browns is on one of the best teams in the AFC, and he's going to be manning the middle for a lot of that.

So as much as Zayven might have a good year, they're in a defense where there's two different inside linebackers, him and Isaiah Simmons, who are going to be making tons of plays. And I just don't see the national spotlight or the success for like the Cardinals would have to be a really good defense team. He'd have to be like Lawrence Taylor, you're saying? Yeah. I just don't see him being that guy right out of the gate. All right. You talked me out of it. How about Barmore at 50 to one? I love Barmore. Did we talk about Barmore on the podcast yet? Second round? You mentioned in passing the last time how he completely decimated

the Giants offensive line. Decimated the Giants and they're like whispering about him but you've talked about it. It's not just, okay, Uche is coming into his own

and we get Hightower back. Like, Barmore was blowing up offensive lines in these joint practices from all the teams that they played and then also

in the preseason game against the Giants played 14 snaps and basically is in the backfield the entire time. Bar more Patriots. I love the 50 to one. I'm not betting it because if he even gets a whiff of possibly winning the award, Belichick will play him like 15 plays in week 15. Shut it down.

Yeah, there's no way. He doesn't like awards. There's one more bet I want to do. So we're going to do $3 million pick futures. Stafford passing yards, 13 and one. Pitts, 800 and 0.5 yards over. And Pitts, 6.5 TDs over. 100K in each.

It's time for my Super Bowl pick. Are you ready? Kyle, turn the fucking camera on. I'm about to go narrative on you. I've seen everybody else's picks. I had a pick in my head. The Rams got a little too popular. Kind of scared me off. I'm about to go narrative on you. I've seen everybody else's picks. I had a pick in my head. The Rams got a little too popular. Kind of scared me off.

I'm with you. Look, I took the Rams. I saw Peter King take them on Monday. Then I saw the rest of the media take them. I'm like, I don't want to take the Rams if everyone took them. That's not fun. But yeah, let me hear.

I'm fascinated to see where you're going. The Bills also got a little too popular. I was looking at them for a while. What was your final pick? Was it Rams-Chiefs? I went Rams over Chiefs. Rams over Chiefs. So I've seen the Chiefs as well.

They fixed their offensive line. I'm thinking about last year and how it might relate to this year. So what happens last year? Tom Brady leaves the Patriots. He finds a new team. He has some struggles in the first eight weeks. They kind of get their shit together a little bit by December.

And they make this great run in the playoffs. They have a ton of talent. And they somehow steal a Super Bowl. That if you go back and you look at it, the Saints easily could have beaten them if tight end doesn't drop it. KC's offensive line injuries, all this stuff with Andy Reid's family. There's a lot of things that go into play where it's just for four weeks,

they run the slate and everything works out and it's great. Then they bring everybody back. It's the same team, but now they've had a full year of Brady. He's indoctrinated in the offense. It's his team. He's the leader. There was that great video clip the other day of him

just kind of laying out all the problems. Did you see that about the rule changes? Yeah, talking about defense and the way the rule changes. Oh, it was great. That was like the smartest two minutes 30 seconds I've heard from him in like 10 years. But the other guys are just he's with like, I think Mike Evans

and Gronk and Levante David and they're all like in awe of him. And I do think that's like Brady's team and I don't think you can sleep on like maybe they weren't meant to win last year maybe this was the year they were supposed to win but they kind of stole last year it was a year early

this was the year they were supposed to be awesome you get Brady for a full year they managed to keep all their guys I know they're the favorite in the NFC but I actually think they might be really great. Now, the irony of this is right now, it's 11.15 in the morning Pacific time. They might lose to the Cowboys today.

I'm going to look like I made it. I don't care. I think the Bucs make it, but now we're going back to narratives. He leaves. He wins the Super Bowl. We've had this Brady Belichick thing going on for 20 years. Who is more responsible?

Please tell me you're not going with... This is crazy. Just years. Who is more responsible? Who is more responsible? Please tell me you're not going with, this is crazy. Just wait. Who is more responsible? Who is more responsible? Brady leaves, he wins the Super Bowl. Belichick goes seven to nine. Terrible year. Multiple guys opt out. Cam Newton bets awful. As Francesa said on the pod, competitive guy, gets his place in NFL history way more than I think anybody realizes and cares about it. Way more than anybody realizes. Let David Halberstam follow them around for a year for a book. Let Michael Hawley follow them around for a year for a book. Let NFL films follow them around for that football and education documentary. Participated in the NFL Films 100, went to Mount Laurel in a shirt and tie and recorded seven episodes talking about players from the 1930s. Yes, he gets history.

He cares. Cares about this whole Brady thing. Goes all in this year. Spends like he's in Vegas on a bender after he just won the lottery. Fixes the defense. Has the best draft that he's had, I don't know, in eight, nine years. They had one of the best draft that he's had in eight, nine years. They had one of the best drafts in the history of the Belichick era. They landed three legitimate blue chippers, I think. Reminders of Stevenson

and Mac Jones. Gets a quarterback. Now he has this quarterback they can do all this stuff with. Best of all, Peter Schrager. He's back to where he needs to be. He's the underdog. He's looking up. He's looking up at the big, powerful Buffalo Bills.

Oh, how are we going to beat those guys who, by the way, have never made a Super Bowl with Josh Allen? Oh, how are we going to beat the Chiefs who, by the way, they went into Arrowhead and beat the fucking Chiefs? Oh, the Browns. Okay, bring the Browns on. You think he Chiefs. Oh, the Browns. Okay. Bring the Browns on. You think he wouldn't love to play

the Browns in the playoffs? He's been waiting 20 years. I love the narrative possibilities. They get the wild card. We'll give the Bills division, but the Pats get the top wild card seed. Browns, round one,

his old nemesisis the team that fired him takes them out KC two seed round two eight point favorites oh little reminiscent of 2001 how are they going to beat this explosive Pittsburgh offense this 13 point underdogs

rookie quarterback they're not going to beat Kansas City in Kansas City takes them down. Round three. Round three at Buffalo. Division rival. What team does Belichick own?

He actually pays rent and house taxes on Buffalo. That's how much he's owned them over 20 years. Bill's now like a three-point favorite in the AFC title game. A lot of Belichick's looking, it's getting better and better. Yeah. He's feeling he's, he's getting his, now there's all the 20th anniversary of, of, uh, the 2001 run with Brady. Wow. Look at these parallels. This is that's, Oh, who's waiting on the other side. Tom Brady,

also in the NFC title game. Wow. Look at this. Now people are like, I should take Buffalo. They're only laying three at home. They went 14 and three this year. I'm now terrified of Belichick. Guess who wins? Patriots figure it out.

They start wondering, Josh Allen's never played in like a game like this, but Mac Jones has all those Alabama wins. They won game. Right. Mac Jones, the Mac Jones 2021 versus Tom Brady 2001 parallels in full swing. Beat Buffalo. Tampa takes care of business against the Rams.

And then? And we have the showdown. Patriots. Patriots Bucks. Kyle, get in. Yeah, Kyle. Patriots Bucks. It's all on the line. Who was really more responsible?

This is it. Belichick has his chance to pull the narrative back. Brady has his chance to prove it was him all along. And this becomes the end of Godfather II, basically. And this is the biggest Super Bowl we've ever had. From a history standpoint, there's never been a better one. And I genuinely think the Pats have a chance. I think they're really good.

I think their defense is really good. If they get Gilmore back for week seven, the running game they have, and I believe in Mac Jones, I think they're going to be able to block for him. I think they have a top five offensive line. And the chips are kind of pushed into this year. So that is my Superbowl pick. You didn't make a pick though. The New England Patriots over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Wow. Boom. Wow. Kyle, get in here.

Kyle, did the camera burn? What happened? Did the lens on the camera burn out? I just lost my voice. By the way, 71 to 1 odds on FanDuel for Bucs-Pats. The all-time. I've got a smile wide across I mean I don't know I don't I'm not a Marvel guy what what Avengers movie is this we're just like oh they put all the stars in the same movie yeah uh and whatever whatever movie that is this is that movie for football and here we go Pats-Bucks 71 I am putting 50K. Actually, you know what I'm going to put? Yeah, I'll put 50K. Pat's Bucks Super Bowl, 71 to 1. That will be our last Million Dollar Picks. Your thoughts, your reactions. What was it like to be there the last four minutes during that monologue? Are you going to tell your grandkids? The way you told that tale, it felt like an FDR fireside chat.

I was glued to the laptop. I'm like, where is this going? Our nation needs this. A couple of little wrinkles here. First Super Bowl in Los Angeles in like 30 years, the Hollywood aspect of it. I love it. They're coming to us, Kyle. This is great.

I love it. They're coming to us, Kyle. This is great. I love this. And then you've got this whole other element of, okay, once they start piling up some wins during the season, it's not just are they going to make the playoffs? It's how far can they go? And then you know the confidence builds. And if they were to beat

the Browns and then take on the Chiefs and then be able to go into Buffalo. Like the confidence factor for the entire team is through the roof and Belichick coaches up. I love it. I'm not man enough to do it. I here's the thing in my world where it's every day NFL talk,

it's like a bold take. And I've been saying it, Hey, the Patriots, they're going to be better than the dolphins this year. And I get crushed for it. And that's me just saying they're going to be in second place in the division. But this is why it's such a great roll the dice at 71-1.

But I actually also believe it because this is what Belichick, he loves this. He loves being the underdog. He was never meant to be like the lead team in the league. This like scrappy rookies, defensive identity, huge running game with multiple interchangeable running backs. The rookie QB who has no ego yet, who just wants to be everybody's favorite teammate, who's just going to listen to Josh McDaniels and do his thing.

They have a little speed on the outside now with Aguilar. They have some tight ends who can actually make a play. I like both the tight ends. mike giardi who works on the nfl network yeah i know patriots guy for years worked at nbc boston all this stuff he told me that like you know he's mac jones almost has like his the way he speaks it's almost like a prepubescent kid like his voice cracks and stuff and he was like all right what do you think of the kid and like trent brown was like no you don't get it that guy's a dog and trent brown's like a six eight mauling tackle and he's like no you don't get it. That guy's a dog. And Trent Brown's like a 6'8 mauling tackle. And he's like, no, you don't get it, man. Mac Jones is legit.

And I was like, that got me excited. I was like, all right, what do we got here? Well, and that goes back to the Cam thing because I've heard this from multiple people. People thought it was the COVID stuff. It wasn't the COVID thing. Mac was too good. Mac was better.

They knew Mac was the QB. And Cam is a fucking famous person Cam can't be the backup Like he's a superstar And he has a lot of He has a lot of like Respect and love And admiration

In the locker room And at some point You just have to decide By the way Belichick did the same thing With Bledsoe in 2002 Brady won He got Bledsoe the fuck

Out of there Like you have to give The car keys To your guy You can't have somebody Hanging over Who the moment the guy is, but he's going to have a couple of bad games. Brady had a couple of really shitty games in 2001. Mac Jones will have a couple of shitty games this year. That was the explanation that I got from that building right when it happened. And I was like, well, why not just keep him as a backup? And it was like, it's nothing against Cam. There's no way that Mac can fully be the man in that locker room

and fully be the leader and fully be the guy when an 11-year NFL veteran who won MVP and was the coolest guy for half the locker room growing up to watch play quarterback is sitting there behind him. It's just not good for Mac. So Cam Newton is obviously the, you know, doesn't get the benefit from that and he gets cut and we'll see where he ends up with his NFL career, but they're all in on him. And I'll add another thing,

you know, he was laughed at and ridiculed and is not well-liked in the greater Michigan area, but, you know, to bring Matt Patricia back and have him in behind the scenes and now helping with a Gerard Mayo and helping with all the Belichick kids and now also being able to operate almost in a consultant's role that's full-time and no one really knows what his title is, but Patricia's going to play a role. He has some defensive mastermind stuff to him that Belichick really trusts. Whether you think so or not from his Detroit years, there's a lot of faith in that building that their coaching staff right now is as good as it's ever been. And for anyone who says this is a Homer pick, which I know they will.

They're right. I would encourage you to look at my track record over the last 20 years, being realistic about my own teams. If I feel like I have a good team, the fans know first. The fans know from following day to day, from whatever. They just, they know. And they also know when their team doesn't have it. Like I was killing the Celtics last year. It was so clear

they didn't have it. That's when you're a homer, when you're like, oh no, no, they're going to figure it out. I was like, no, this team's nothing's going to happen with this team. This Pats team reminds me a lot of the 2000s Pats teams. This is like the 03

team where Brady wasn't super famous yet. Their defense was excellent. They were really well coached. They had a bunch of different offensive players who could chip in, but no awesome ones. Like in 03, the year before they got Corey Dillon, it was a bunch of RIP David Patton. But just a bunch of people that you wouldn't tell your grandkids about, but they all kind of knew what they were doing. They all chipped in.

And I think that's what this team's going to be like. Yeah, and Hightower is kind of that Willie McGinnis role where it's like you've got the old Sage veteran who can watch it over it all. I think you're crazy. I don't think this is the year for them. I love it. I'm going to tell Belichick you think.

I don't even know him. I'm going to tell him. Schrager thought I was crazy. I love it. I do think there is something to saying as far as a 70 to one long shot. Like, yeah, why not? Because this is the year in the AFC

where everyone's crowning two teams that I don't think as a franchise, the Bills or the Browns have had any modicum of success over the last 30 years. And it's a lot to get over the hump. And the Bills really fell short last year, too. I mean, that game wasn't really that close

against a team that didn't have an offensive line. They didn't. And in the Browns case, to be crowned in July and August is almost uncomfortable. Now you have to actually go win the games. One of those two teams is not going to be as good as they're being discussed.

The Chiefs are just such a locomotive. They're just so good. That's the team. I am afraid of the Chiefs more than such a locomotive. The Chiefs are awesome. They're just so good. That's the team. I am afraid of the Chiefs more than the other two. I think what people are missing with the Pats in general is they have a bunch

of blue chippers now. And it always, Lombardi and I always just talk about this. It always comes back to like, how many really good guys do you have? If you're really like

on a football team, you need like eight to 12 kick-ass guys. Give me five of them. Give me five Patriots blue chipper that when you walk off the bus, you're like, oh shit, they have X, Y.

Because I don't see that. Who are the five guys? You don't see it? I think Uche definitely is going to be a blue chipper this year. Going to be. Yeah, but I think it's going to happen this year for him. I think Barmore definitely. I think Gilmore when he comes back.

I think at the offensive line, I'm just counting as like, if you have a top five lineup, I'm counting that as one blue chip. I think they're running back. Same thing. I think the Harris-Romandre thing as a combo, like to me, I said this, the fantasy football show, they had this Take Purge podcast where it was like all the takes they were afraid to say. And it was really good. It was funny. And my take purge is Ramondre and Damien is the thinking man's Chubb and Hunt. Chubb and Hunt. Everybody's like Chubb and Hunt, Chubb and Hunt, Chubb and Hunt.

It's like these guys are going to be just as good as Chubb and Hunt. I'm telling you now they're going to be just as productive. They're going to have the same stats market down

and their offensive line is actually probably better. It's better than it was last year. They lost Tooney and everyone freaked out about that, but I think they did get better on the offensive line.

And then Hightower would be the other one. If he took a year off, that makes me a little nervous, but we'll see. But then Mack, it's all going to come down. If Mack's good, this team can absolutely play with all these other teams. And then you throw in the coaching, the Belichick, McDaniels piece.

When does Mack fully grasp it? How long does it take for him to adjust? And then if they can get hot, make the playoffs, anybody's ball game. Any blue chippers we left out? On the Patriots, JC Jackson can hawk down a ball.

He's pretty good. Yeah, I feel like he's an awesome number two. Yeah. I'll be interested to see how he does as the number one. Good player. And then that's the problem. They don't have a... I mean, we're talking about Tyreek Hill

and Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones. But nobody can stop those guys. I know. How you stop those guys is with the D-line in the front seven. I appreciate that. The thing that we get on the NFL Network, Bill,

which you would die, you get the guy come there and be like, they arguably maybe could possibly be the team to watch. And then when the picks come in, it's like, yeah, I'm taking Bills versus... Your Chiefs, Bills, Rams. Yeah, and it's like, no, I'm taking, I'm taking bills. Yeah. And it's like, no, if you think it walk the walk, talk the talk and go own it, which you are.

All right. We're going to take a break. Kyle, do you need time to hose down, have a cigarette after that? Are you going to be good to continue? I already had one. I'm coming back with a billion dollar picks. All right. Million back with Million Dollar Picks. All right, Million Dollar Picks, week one. As always, we're going to flag some games and then circle back and make the picks.

There's a really, really, really obvious tease this week. The Rams are favored by seven and a half over the Detroit Lions, who I think are going to be terrible. Like, actually really terrible. The Rams are favored by seven and a half points over the Bears. I don't think the Bears are going to be able to block the Rams. I don't see the Rams stumbling out of the gate with this team that's been built for success with all the Super Bowl hype, with the coaching advantages they're going to have in this game, McVay versus Nagy,

whatever, I'm sure it's going to be an adult in the start. I just don't see a scenario where the Bears beat the Rams. I don't. I don't see a scenario where the Lions beat the 49ers. And it just seems logical to tease both of those lines

down to one and a half. I'm going to be more careful with teases this year in this podcast. This one, I look at it like, are the Lions beating me or the Bears beating me? I'm fine. If one of those teams beats this, I'll happily take the money out of million dollar picks. What are your thoughts? I couldn't be more confident in a game than that San Francisco, Detroit one. And I think San Francisco wins big with you. They had the worst defense in the league, the lions last year, and they're going up against now Kyle Shanahan, who's had all his toys back. This off season has spent the last three months preparing to unveil all these

toys. And, you know, maybe Aaron Glenn, who's a former jets corner, and it was a great defensive backs coach in new Orleans. It's his first game as a defensive coordinator. He's undermanned on defense. He's going up against Kyle Shanahan, fully healthy, and that entire offensive explosion. You add in the fact on the other side, Nick Bosa's back after missing 14 games last year. The 49ers had the number one defense of the past few years with all those injuries. All those guys are healthy. And I've heard from a couple people on this game because it seems like it's the obvious survivor pool thing being like, yeah, but Jared Goff, Jared Goff knows that defense. Jared Goff historically could not beat that 49ers defense, even when it was other guys. And when it's Garoppolo, Goff is 0-3 all time versus the 49ers when Garoppolo started.

I think it's going to be growing pains for the Lions. I don't think they could have asked for a worse opponent week one. I see this as a blowout. And I think you're going to see a bit of Trey Lance. You might see Trey Lance five to 10 times. And I'll tell you what, Aaron Glenn, first time defensive coordinator, first game ever. He's going to be up all night the night before trying to think about how do I prepare for all this? Because the Niners are coming and they're not going to be up all night the night before trying to think about how do I prepare for all this? Because the Niners are coming and they're not, they're not going to be relenting anything on this one. And then the bears, I think their offensive line is really bad. They need to get through a couple of bad games with Dalton. Nagy was seven to one to be first coach fired, which

I already jumped on. I don't like the, anything about the way the first few weeks of this shakes out. They got a week nine, I think a week 10 by, which would be probably right around the time when they're like, all right, we're going to start over. It's the Fields era and we'll get a new coach after the year. And the Rams, one of the things I love about week one

is like there's no surprises in week one. There's no, oh, we were caught napping. Yeah. And you're talking two of the seven or eight best teams against two of the five worst in a tease so mark both of those down can i can i just because i think everyone and you're included on this like all right they they got terrible offensive line the other side of it the bears and the rams have played a few times over the last couple years i think the last few times the bears

they scored 10 points one time they scored seven another. But then on the flip side of it, you know, the Bears, their mighty defense and Khalil Mack was on the injury report this week. Robert Quinn was on the injury report this week. And I'm not putting you on the spot. I'm asking anyone at home. Can you name a few of the defensive backs on the Chicago Bears, their corners, the guy's names? It's Kendall Vildor. It's Jalen Johnson, who was a rookie last year. It's Xavier Crawford. It's Duke Shelley. This isn't the Kyle Fuller and Adrian Amos and all those guys who would give you fits with Charles Tillman or whoever. It's not the Bears defense. And you talk about matchups coaching-wise. McVay, like Kyle Shanahan, has been preparing for this. Sean Desai is the defensive

coordinator for the Bears. He's 38 years old. He's never been a defensive coordinator at any level. He used to be the defensive backs coach. He was a safeties coach. Like, this is a big game. And they're unveiling this SoFi Stadium. They've got the live music concert. Every celebrity, they're like,

there's a lot of other things that come into play than just, hey, X's and O's. I think the Rams run away with this one too. I'm with you. I think that's a great tease. And I sound like I'm disagreeing with whatever you say, but two out of two. No, no, we're going to disagree later.

And unfortunately, we didn't get a chance to throw this with the Bucks-Cowboys. That line moved to nine and a half by the time we're doing this. So maybe that line moved too high. We could have had a seven point tease with it. But look, sometimes the teases write themselves. I think where you have to be careful

is doing a tease every week, trying to force the tease. Like if the Rams were playing, I don't know, the Washington, I'd be a little more nervous. I'm like, all right, we could talk ourselves into some Washington stuff, but with the Bears, I cannot.

All right, five single games we want to hit. First one's Pats minus three at home over the Dolphins. We don't need to hit this. I made the case for the Pats already. They're over the Dolphins. We don't need to hit this. I made the case for the Pats already. They're catching the Dolphins at a nice time early in the two experience. Jalen Waddell, first game. I think they're better than the Dolphins. I actually think this is the year the Dolphins take a tiny step back and then next year will be the year they make the jump. There's some Flores stuff here. The Dolphins have done good against the Pats over the years, but

ultimately, if you believe in the Pats, you have to take them in this line minus three. So unless you want to talk me out of that, I'm moving on. No, I feel the same. Interesting nugget here. Last time two Alabama quarterbacks ever faced off in an NFL game, 1983, Richard Todd versus Kenny Stabler. The Saints' Kenny Stabler.

Oh, the end of the line Kenny Stabler. Monday Night Football, Richard Todd and the Jets beat Kenny Stabler. The Saints' Kenny Stabler. Oh, the end of the line Kenny Stabler. Monday Night Football. Richard Todd and the Jets beat Kenny Stabler and the Saints. That's like when Nick Nolte was playing Kenny Stabler. Next game, I wanted a flag. I'd like the Chargers in it, but it might be a stay away. Chargers are minus one over Washington. It's in Washington.

And this is more, I just like the Chargers, but I'm also scared of Washington. Let's talk it out. I want to make sure, because I do like the Chargers this year. I think they're a playoff team. And if you're a playoff team, you probably have to win this game.

On the other hand, like Washington scares me. What do you think? Not a great matchup for the Chargers. They got to travel across the country. Obviously it's early in the season. You rather do it now than later. but you know, young offensive tackle Rashawn Slater, who's been praised and basically put in Canton this off season by those who cover the chargers. Like this guy's unbelievable. All right. Chase young and a Montez sweater coming. And so

are Jonathan pain and a Duran pain and Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis and the rest. So like, I think Washington's defense is going to come out ready to go. They were so good last year, week one against the Eagles. I think this might be a rude awakening for a new offense with the Chargers and also a new tackle in Slater, who, by the way, handled Chase Young two years ago in college. And that will be a point of emphasis, I'm sure, when Northwestern played Ohio State.

But I just feel like this front is going to be coming, and it might be a lot early on for a new Chargers team with a new head coach and a new offense. Slater over Sewell, 13th pick versus the seventh pick. It seems like the Chargers won that one. And that was a big pick because they could have easily traded down. People wanted Mac Jones. They're trying to leapfrog the Patriots. They easily could have traded down, but they love the guy and it seems like they got the right guy. They rebuilt their offensive line

this off season. And Lindsley's the center, of course, who's the highest paid center in the NFL when he got that deal. And it's like, all right, we got to protect this guy, Herbert. I just feel like there's not going to be many offensive lines that are going to be able to hold up against that defensive line. And this is the first game of a new offense. So low scoring game to me. And in a low scoring game, I think Washington is to stay away. Yeah. I do like there's a school of thought, like Washington's defense. Are we sure they're good? And you go through all their wins from last year where their defense looks good. And it's like a bad quarterback just about every game. But I thought they look good against the Bucs. You could make a case. They played the Bucs better than

anybody in the playoffs. All right. we'll cross that off. Next one. The Vikings are favored by three in Cincinnati. I don't love this Vikings team. I'm a little afraid of COVID, Kirk. Who knows? We make this pick on Thursday and who knows on Saturday there's something crawling across the ticker. I just think the Bengals are going to be bad. I have. I already bet they're under

six and a half. Burrow, to me me in the preseason, lots of people have talked about this. When you're coming back from that knee injury, there's still, and I remember with Brady in 2009, same thing, those first couple of games with those guys bouncing around and rolling around near your legs,

you're just never comfortable. It takes a while. And then they add Chase. Solak did a great thing on the Rer gambling show about Chase's over under for receiving yards is way too high because normally like rookie receivers, the only way they're going to beat it is like Justin Jefferson last year. We were the only target, you know, for multiple games, but Chase was terrible in the preseason. Their second round pick was not great either.

And I think their coach who I know is the McVay coaching tree, but he, he has has not been impressive the first couple of years. So this is just, to me, I look at this as what is this line three weeks from now? Is this line Vikings five and a half, three weeks from now? Is there just value going against Cincy, even if it's a mediocre team playing them in Cincinnati? What do you think? I just don't know what we're getting from the Cincy offense yet, because I know they're really high on having those three receivers who, whether Chase drops the ball in preseason or not, he's the fifth overall pick. Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and they love Joe Mixon. And Burrow, I mean, he might be a little nervous out there, but he's never played that way in his life. He's fearless. And they say he looks great. So

that offense could surprise us in that game. We watch on Sunday. And so wait a second, Cincinnati is really good on offense. And so maybe it's a stay away. Cause I don't love Minnesota. I don't either. That's the thing. I just don't know what we're getting now. What you would say you'd lean on here is you'd say, all right, Zimmer and cousins, these guys have been there, done that. The Cincinnati guys haven't. So like you start week one, it's all right, we're going on the road. We're taking on the freaking bangles. Let's go bully them around and let's go find a way to win this game with all our guys. I would stay away though. I don't feel good about either one of those teams this year.

I do have one quick story you'll love though. Uh, Kyle Brandt, my colleague on good morning football is promoting another show of his that he's doing. He's doing a game show and he said he went on Dennis Miller's like radio show, I guess. Dennis Miller has a radio show and he's on there and he has no idea what Dennis Miller is going to ask. And Kyle says, out of the gates,

Dennis Miller's first question is, so what's the deal with Zach Taylor? Of all the questions. Oh my God, that's so weird. Is he like a bagel stand? What's the deal with Zach Taylor? What is that? Who is that?

Why is he the, and Kyle was laughing so hard that he prepared all day for a million questions from Dennis Miller. And Dennis Miller asks, what's the deal with Zach Taylor? Well, if that's a great one,

I'm not surprised though, that Dennis Miller, like red herring, first question, the thing with Minnesota, if you think they have any chance in this division, they basically have to win this game because their schedule is really tough.

They have three different stretches. This is, they have an easy game against the lions. They have the Bengals. They basically have to win this game because their schedule is really tough. They have three different stretches. They have an easy game against the Lions. They have the Bengals. They have the Lions twice. Other than that, it's a hard schedule. So if you're out on the Vikings to do well this year, then this is the game, right? Maybe take the three. And like Dalvin Cook and

you know all the players. I don't need to list players. They've got the better roster. I'm staying away just because I want us to do really well, and I want us to just stay away. Let's do meat and potatoes this year. I don't want to start throwing, Kirk Cousins, it'll be fine. I do not like this Bengals team.

Maybe there's time to bet against them next week. We have our chances on that, but let's feel good about our tees. We feel really good about the Patriots. What else we got? Falcons minus three over the Eagles. There's been some slight Eagle buzz. They might have lucked out

with their seventh round left tackle. They look like they're going to have a pass rush. People like their receivers. There's some Miles Sanders. If you got him for 20 bucks in your fantasy league it might have been a steal or you might have paid $10 too much but he's been discussed I don't

the new coach I think I'm out definitely makes me nervous for the first week and then you flip it around with the Falcons Arthur Smith ready to be a coach Falcons little underrated we're buying into the Falcons narrative of hey I think this team

is a lot better than maybe people realize. I think they have a chance to make the playoffs. I'm in on some Falcons bets. They're home. They're only laying three. They got the Bucs week two at Tampa. And then they go at Giants, home Washington, and then the Jets in London in a bye week. If you're making the case for the Falcons, you have to be four and one coming out of those five, I think. So they have to win this game. I think they're better than the Eagles. And you talk about coming out of week one, what are the narratives? What are you and Kyle and Kay Adams, and you don't have a fourth co-host yet, but whoever that person is. Do you have a co-host yet? We're rotating. We're doing Jeopardy.

Doing Jeopardy. All right. I hope you have better luck than Jeopardy did. Yes. What are the narratives coming out of Sunday that you guys are excited Monday morning? I think Pitts could be one of them. This could be like the, oh shit, Pitts. Jesus. I said on Tuesday's Good Morning Football, they said the one player after 300 and whatever days of not having football or hundreds of a day, who's the one player you will actually like tune on Sunday ticket and be like, all right, it's one o'clock. I got to watch. I said, the one player to me is Kyle Pitts. I want to see it because we did so many draft shows and I talked to so many GMs and all of them raved about this guy.

What if he's Kelsey already? If he's once in a generation, then we're going to have the opportunity to watch him this week. The Sirianni thing is interesting because I was originally out also because I didn't know him well and I still don't know him well. I've gotten to know him the last couple of weeks and we had him on our show. We will know

what these veteran Eagles think of their head coach the first half of this game. If they come out flat, this season's done. It's whatever. If they come out house on fire, everyone's in. This guy is a motivational speaker. And I know you saw some of the stuff about the rock paper scissors. I saw the opposite. Yeah. I'm telling you. You saw that rock paper scissors. You see some of the rambling press conferences. You're like, all right. Now his whole deal is like, yeah, I did rock paper scissors. And yeah,

you know what? I also played horse with the guys. You know why? Because I want to see what they got inside of them. I want to see what they want to compete. And if I'm on a Zoom interview with a combine prospect, I don't give a shit about how he is in the three, four. I want to see how he plays rock, paper, scissors and how he handles losing to me. I'm like, okay, let's go.

And then his whole thing is they've had all the season. And he's like, we have a 17 round heavyweight match coming. This is literally what he told me. He's like, our first battle and we've got to get through 17 rounds are the Atlanta Falcons. Basically putting a picture of Matt Ryan up, bringing up boxing analogies. This is old school coaching. Hey, I want to run through a wall.

Are you with me? And a lot of these veterans who've already got Superbowl rings or you're a Brandon Graham or Elaine Johnson or a Jason Kelly. I'd be like, dude, who the fuck is this guy? Like it might not resonate or they're like, wait, we, this guy's got it. Let's go. Because he's never been a play caller before his defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, very highly respected, never been a coordinator. Like there's a lot of question marks about the Eagles and what Jalen Hurts,

do we really think Jalen Hurts is going to throw for 500 yards? There's a lot of obvious glaring question marks. The only X factor is whether this team responds to this coach who is a lot and it's a lot of energy, it's a lot of enthusiasm and it's a lot of us against the world.

He kind of embodies Philadelphia. I'm curious to see how they come out the first half. I would say I would bet on Atlanta in this one if I'm making a pick just because I got better reliability on what I know what I'm getting the other side, but Philly could be a fun watch this year if they get hot. I'm buying the Atlanta narrative. And I think if you're buying it, you have to pick them in this game. I also am not a Jalen Hurts guy yet. Nor am I.

I'm not sold on, from what we saw last season, that this guy is like the answer. I still feel like we could see Minshew. I asked Sal to set the line. Is it week six, week seven? We were like, week six and a half. Is Minshew in there by then?

I'm just not sold on the Hurts thing. I think people were confused when he was coming out of college. I think now that teams know he's the guy and have full weeks to plan against him, I just want to see it.

I'm not against him. I'm not for him. But I think people are penciling him in as he's just going to be really good. And we have no idea. He might be one of the five worst quarterbacks in the league.

I think the Eagles put their faith in him this season, but they also have two first round picks next year. And then if Carson Wentz plays 70% of his snaps, they have a third first round pick. I think the Eagles are all in on Jalen Hurts

until they're not. And then it's okay. Next year we have all these draft picks. Right, we're kind of sort of all in. Well, the other thing, what is the cap hit this year? They were 27 million short for this year's roster. That has to factor in.

They're playing with 80% of a salary cap. So I like the Falcons. I think they're going to be really fun to watch. All the signs, as we've talked on other pods, all the signs point to them breaking out. And then the last one that's a straight up, Broncos minus three. Okay. Let me hear your reasonings for the Denver Broncos to go into New York on a 430 game where the Giants fans have not been in the stadium for 18 months and are going to be absolutely nuts.

How do the Broncos with Teddy Bridgewater come out with this one? Let me hear. I like their defense. Sertan is an absolute stud. They lucked out on that one. Javante Williams. Okay, let's talk about him.

Two of my three teams. I didn't get him last night in my weird East Coast League that we booger eaters round by round draft. He's on my other two. They know he's good. They iced him the last game they even play him. He's very good.

They're just like, we're penciling. People are taking Melvin Gordon in these drafts. It's like, good luck, man. Javante Williams is going to be the guy. They know he's good. Like, go read the stories, the quotes. It's the same as like the Mac Jones stuff. The teammates talking about him

and the coaches, like they have something with him. Their receivers, I think are going to be excellent. We're very high on Judy. Both of us are very high on Jerry Judy. The Judy Sutton and Hamler combo

and then Teddy Bridgewater, I think he's fine. He's like a B minus. He's like a B. He's not going to lose you games. Yeah. And then you flip it around with the Giants,

like the Daniel Jones combo with the offensive line. I don't think Barkley's ready yet. It's the elephant in the room. It's like, is Barkley 100%? Is he 90%? Is he 84%? Is he 80%? I don't know. I don't know what I'm getting got them to play hard last year and got them to stay in game. So maybe this is a push, but I think the Broncos are better. I have the Broncos as a playoff team. They're not making the playoffs if they lose to fucking Daniel Jones. So Broncos minus three, talk me out of it. I'm going to talk you out of this. I live in New York. I've lived in New York for 15 years. Sunday, there is a 9-11 20-year anniversary that is going to be so emotional for so many people in this market. And the Giants have not been in that building for 18 months. They will be in that building finally with the people that they grew up with sitting next to us. He's in ticket holders who they have interacted with for generations that they did not get to see last year.

Before the game, there's going to be a tribute video. Steve Buscemi, who is a former firefighter and actor, is narrating it. The national anthem is being sung by Juliette Candela, who lost her father in 9-11 and does a lot of these. 9-11, she is often the person singing the national anthem. I think this Giants home crowd is going to be in such a frenzy and that this Giants team, I got goosebumps talking about it, is going to be in such a frenzy and that this Giants team,

I got goosebumps talking about it, is going to feed off this so great in a big game, in an era where there is optimism around this team that I don't think they will find a way to screw the pooch. I feel like the Giants are winning this game. I might take the Giants, not against the Broncos. I might take the Giants against anyone. I think that place is going to be nuts on Sunday, emotional to start the game and then rocking during it. If you're a Giants fan listening, I know you're saying,

I'm a, let's go. I just feel like that stuff does play a role. And these fans have not been to the stadium in so long. And I know you have Warren Sharp and the PFF guys. This one is sheer emotion. I think Giants win. Can you have that kind of emotion in a four-hour football event anymore with the way, with how sterile these stadiums are? I'm with you on all this stuff, but I think we see over and over again, you have that emotion. This is really cool, by the way. Now it makes me feel bad that I want to take the Broncos. No, no, no, no, no. You feel the emotion before the game. How the game operations are going to work. But like, I do honestly think that this place is going to be nuts. And it's going to be a religious experience for a lot of people to be back in that stadium. And the football matters so much to these Giants fans. It's not, it's a parochial team where it goes back generations since the twenties. And like to have these people kept out of that stadium, I think it's going to be, I don't, I can't see them booing Daniel Jones in the first quarter after that, the start of this game.

It's a really solid case. I look at, um, the offensive line. You're like much more rational. You're like, yes, but can Matt Pert out of Yukon stop?

Well, I'm just, I'm just going to list you three things. I don't trust at all. The offensive line I know is bad. Daniel Jones. I'm convinced is bad. I think this will be the final year for him. And you can't tell me Barkley's healthy.

I don't know what Barkley's health is. And I'm very, very well-spoken. Would you be shocked if he didn't play week one? I would not be shocked if... Okay, how about this? I think he's going to play week one because we're recording this whenever and we'll find out

and I'll know more as the day goes. But they play a game on Sunday and then they play the Redskins or the Washington football team on Thursday in a quick turnaround. There is a theory out there that they just say, Barkley, we'll keep you stashed to week three

and we'll go from there. See, I think they're 0-2 after that. All right, long shot parlay. We're going to do this every week. 0 is for 50K. So the anchor team, our choices for our anchor team that we'll put with one other

team is either the Raiders plus 185 on Monday night against the Ravens. To win straight up? They have to win straight up. We're taking a flyer. We're just throwing it on this. Or the Browns plus 220 against KC. That line has moved. It started at six and a half. It's moved to six. It's moved to five and a half. A lot of sharps are on the Browns. Yeah. Turn Matthew is battling a COVID situation. He's been

vaccinated from what I'm told, and he might not be on the field because he can't get two straight days of a negative test or 10 days of no symptoms. So that could be a big X factor why the line might be moving. Browns have confidence against them. They played them last year. So who do you like as the anchor, Raiders or Browns? Or do we just throw them together? No, no.

In that one, I got to say, Mahomes is 10-0 in September and has thrown 32 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Andy's been drawing it up. It's not fun to bat against Mahomes either. It's not fun to bet against Mahomes, Tyreek, and Kelsey. I don't see them losing. Not enjoyable. I think the Raiders are a little more fun, and I have no idea what we're getting from that team this year. So if you want to throw

a wild card out there that's, eh, crap, it's Monday night, let's watch it. Raiders. So Raiders, plus 185. Ravens, you know, the Gus Edwards, Tyson Williams, is that his name? Tyson Williams. Nice. I got one right. I'm getting better at names miraculously. Their receivers are in weird shape. There's another deal too. Gus Bradley's the new defensive coordinator for the Raiders.

And a couple of years ago, Lamar was the hottest thing in football. They go to the playoffs and Gus Bradley was the Chargers defensive coordinator. They go into Baltimore and just shut him down. They play again. Gus Bradley shuts them down. Like the Chargers defense always handled Lamar pretty well. And now he's with the Raiders. And if anyone's got the keys to stop Lamar, it's Gus Bradley calling the shots. All right.

It's worth the flyer with somebody else. So our choices are Steelers over Bills plus 220. Probably staying away. Texans over Jags plus 164. And just the classic both these teams are bad anything can happen. Why is anyone

favored game? Or the Saints playing in Jacksonville over Green Bay plus 166. So if you put that together if you put the Saints with the Raiders

it's plus 655. Yeah. If you put the Saints with the Jaguar with I'm sorry the Texans it's plus 655. Yeah. If you put the Saints with the Jaguar, with, I'm sorry, the Texans, it's plus 620. The Saints thing is interesting because they've been practicing

in 100 degree heat all summer and then they're going down to Jacksonville where it's going to be 100 degree heat. If they had played in the Superdome, it would have been air conditioned. So it's almost like this might be an advantage for the Saints to be playing in this heat.

I just can't see Jameis and them playing without their home crowd in front of them and winning over Aaron Rodgers. I just can't see Jameis and them playing without their home crowd in front of them and winning over Aaron Rodgers. I just don't see that one. The game before that is interesting. Texans versus Jaguars. Texans, the pooper ball. Everyone's just writing off the Texans and I don't think they're anything special, but I have no idea what we're getting. No, a new head coach. From a talent standpoint, the teams are both bad. It's not like one team is more talented than the other. You know, last year, I think the Jaguars beat the Colts week one and lost 15 straight. Like week one is a fickle beast. I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans won that game.

All right. We're going to take a break and then we're going to rattle off the million dollar picks. A Raiders-Texan parlay. Million dollar picks for week one. All right. The million dollar picks for week one. We're going to sprinkle a little more. We're going to go above the million this week. We're getting a little bit,

just because it's week one, we're going to have fun. 49ers minus seven and a half over Detroit. Rams minus seven and a half over the Bears. We are teasing those teams together down to minus one and a half. Both of them have to win by two or more. We're putting 500 K on that. If it loses,

you lose five 50. So five 50 to win 549ers Rams teas. And then we are putting 200 K on three games, two of which you like one of which you were going head to head on. Pats minus three over the Dolphins. Falcons minus three over the Eagles, aka the dawn of Kyle Pitts. The Kyle Pitts era.

The Kyle Pitts era beginning. And then finally, the Broncos minus three over the Giants. I think the best outcome for all of us here is a push. We're both right. We don't have to go next week. I told you, blah, blah, blah. I think I'm going to be right. If Barkley was 100%, I'd be more nervous than this.

I just don't think the Giants are going to be able to move the ball. So I'm going Broncos minus three. You might very well be right. Mine's all emotion. Yeah, yeah. Mine's heart. Yours is mind. The long shot parlay of the week,

which we're going to be putting $33,000 on this year, every week, in honor of the man, the myth, the legend, Larry Bird. $33,000. Raiders have to beat Baltimore. They're plus 185 Monday night. Opening the stadium. Vegas Stadium, Monday night.

Weird shit happens. Monday week one, we've had a lot of weird upsets over the years. Lamar deciding fantasy leagues, but then having a bad game. Like a whole bunch of things that could happen. And we're going to parlay that with the Texans to beat the Jaguars. Plus 164. I don't know why anyone's favorite in this game. Why not?

Why not? Why not? Tyler Taylor. He's won a lot of worse games in his life. Let's go. So that's plus 620, which I think if you multiply 33 with plus 620, that's right around 200K. So those are the million dollar picks for week one. I think this could be a strong start for us.

It feels really good. Feels good to be back. Oh my God, does it ever. Thank you. All right. Anything else we want to hit before we go? No, this is it. Feels good to be back. Oh my God. Does it ever. Thank you. Um, all right. Anything else we want to hit before we go? No, this is it. I'll be on Fox NFL kickoff, 11 AM Eastern flying out to LA bill every week, getting back into the mode. Here we go. Time. Oh, you're doing the LA trips again. I'm doing it every week. I'll be on a plane. I'll be going. I will be wearing seven masks and we'll just go to work. Let's go. Oh, well, we might have to have dinner one of those times. All right. Peter Schrager,

a pleasure as always. It's great to have you back. Million dollar picks. Don't forget you can play against, not play against us, but you can play with us on FanDuel. They have a whole million dollar pick set up. Do you know about the bad quarterback league we created on FanDuel? I heard about it in your latest podcast. I think it's hilarious. It's amazing. They have it by tiers. Before we go, I'm going to read this to you. This is so good. They have it by tiers where you basically have to pick one guy from each tiers.

But what's interesting is how they did the tiers. So it's tier one, tier two. You got to pick like one of five guys. Tier two, pick one of five guys. Tier three. So tier one's the worst here. It's like the marquee bad quarterbacks. Here are the five they picked.

Can I guess? Can I guess? Yeah. Okay. So it's the five worst quarterbacks based on their ratings. Yes. Starting quarterbacks. Okay.

So I would say they're going to throw in Tyrod Taylor. Did not make it. He was tier two. Yeah. All right. I'm done. What else we got? Who do we got?

So they put Mac Jones in there, which I was personally offended by. I think FanDuel just wanted to hurt me. Daniel Jones, obvious. I mean, some are saying he's going to be the leader of this this year. Andy Dalton had to be in there. Jared Goff, I think, was another one

who locked him down. And then the fifth one was Bridgewater, which I thought was strange. I would have put somebody from that Houston-Jacksonville game. I would think. Right. So it goes through

and then tier six was like Mahomes, Josh Allen and all that. But it was just seeing the tiers. I was wondering if like the players might get fired up. Like Teddy Bridgewater is like, I'm tier one. I'm with Daniel Jones.

What are we doing? We do that nonsense NFL 100 like thing. And the players get so, we do the mad. The players get so mad. They should know about this. Yeah. All right.

Check that out. Bad quarterback league as well on Fando. Peter Schrager. Great to see you. See you next week. Awesome. Thanks Bill. That's it for the podcast.

I'll be back with Sal uh, Sal on Sunday night, guess the lines for week two, as well as a week one recap. This podcast was produced by Kyle Creighton. Have a good weekend. See you Sunday. We say. I don't have a few years with him on the wayside on the front side

I don't have