The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Cavs Party, Brooklyn in Limbo, and Million-Dollar Playoff Picks With Brian Windhorst and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: January 27, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by ESPN's Brian Windhorst to discuss the third-place Cleveland Cavaliers, the inconsistent Brooklyn Nets, and Ben Simmons trade watch as the NBA trade deadline approaches (2:29). Then Bill talks with NFL Network's Peter Schrager about the NFL conference playoff matchups, Rams-49ers and Chiefs-Bengals (50:50), before making the Million-Dollar Picks for conference championship weekend (1:28:45). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Brian Windhorst and Peter Shcrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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hear on the Ringerverse. Lots of good stuff going on on the Ringer these days. Hope you're checking out Plain English with Derek Thompson, which is a relatively new podcast for us, but I think it's been absolutely fantastic, especially in these times, in these weird, crazy times that we're living in right now. I would recommend that one as well. We're also brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, where we, in Million Dollar Picks a little bit later, I'm going to tell you what our same game parlay is that you could do, as well as some other fun things that we're doing on Million Dollar Picks. So there you go. Thanks to everybody who reached out about the Embiid thing I did on Tuesday. That was fun. I'm going to try to start doing those a little bit more. My fingers, still don't know if they work, but sometimes they can start moving. Sometimes there's life. Who knows? All right. Coming up on this podcast,

we're going to talk to Brian Windhorst, my old friend from ESPN, about my beloved Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that I've just adopted like a rescue dog. I just really enjoy watching them. We're gonna talk about them and a couple of their NBA things. And then Peter Schrager is gonna come on. Million dollar picks, championship weekend, McVay versus Shanahan, all kinds of storylines.

Looking forward to it. Can't wait. But first, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, my old friend Brian Windhorst is here. You can read him on ESPN.com. You can see him on the ESPN TV channel, so you can hear him on the Hoop Collective podcast that he does for them. We haven't talked in a while.

I was thinking about you this week because the Cavs are good again, and that was where you made your bones originally, way back when in the early 21st century. It was a team that I really liked heading into the season as being like a fun league pass, frisky.

Maybe they could be a 10th seed in the playing game type of thing. I love Mobley. Garland, I certainly didn't see this coming. But they are now a game and a half out of the one seed in the East. I know you've been watching. I know you have a lot of connections with that team.

Did anyone see this? No, and they didn't see it either. And if they told you that, they would be lying. They didn't know Garland was going to play like this. They were excited about Mobley. They had this plan in place to play Mobley, Lowry Markkinen, and Jared Allen together, but they didn't know it was going to work. And I've talked to J.D. Bickerstaff about this. They went off to a retreat at this resort in Pennsylvania, and they hunkered down, and they

went over all their ways they could play big guys together. He talked about when his dad was running the Seattle Sonics and they had Sean Kemp and Detlef Schrempf and a center, various centers who came through there and they played the three big guys. You know why they played three big guys, Bill? Because those were like three of their best players. They had no guards and they had bids, so they played their best guys.

Yeah. And then Sexton blew out his knee. He didn't blow out his knee, but he hurt his meniscus and he's out. And it opened the door for Garland and everything fell into place. It turned out Allen and Mobley could play together. It turned out that Mobley would be a

difference-making defensive player from day one, which is beyond rare in the NBA. You sometimes see guys be difference-making offensive players. You don't see difference-making defensive players who are 19. You know, this guy who the Pelicans drafted, Herbert Jones. Oh, yeah.

He's a stud. He's like a difference-making defensive player. He's also 23. You know, he had four years of college. He's not 19 and slight. And so, like, there's no way they would believe they would be in second place in the end of January

or third place, whatever it is. I love Mobley. He was my favorite player in the draft. I still can't believe he filled a third. You need luck like this sometimes. And Cleveland's had the luck a few times. I mean, they've also,

they've picked, you know, high up in the lottery probably more times this century than any other of the franchise. They got lucky that though, you think about that Memphis, if they had gotten the first pick, they wouldn't have had to give it to Detroit.

That whole draft instead of Cleveland gets LeBron. They get the Kyrie draft where it's like Kyrie or Derek Williams. I still don't understand what happened to Derek Williams, but you know, they've had even, I guess the Wiggins pick, they were able, that was the year they were able to flip it to Kevin Love. But you think if Embiid doesn't get hurt the week before, that might've been another lucky one. The Mobley thing to me is the luckiest out of all of them because to get that guy third, I do think we'll be looking back at that a couple of decades from now and being like,

wow. Like the same way we look at the KG thing, you know, and some of these other ones are like, wow, how did they not see this? It was a lot more complicated in the moment, obviously, but. Well, think of the layers of luck because they had to get lucky to jump up into the top four. They got third, but like, they weren't guaranteed. I mean, they had decent odds. Like it was not out of the realm of possibility

for the Oklahoma City Thunder to get picks three and four. I can't remember if the Houston pick was top three protector or top four protector. Maybe it wasn't possible for them to get four and five. Oklahoma City could have gotten in there with two picks. And Cleveland not only gets lucky to get in there, but then Detroit locks on Cade Cunningham And Cleveland not only gets lucky to get in there But then You know Detroit locks on Cade Cunningham

And Houston From what I understand Didn't even seriously consider Evan Mobley It was Jalen Green The Cavs knew they were getting Mobley from like A week after the lottery on They locked into him And there were years where

And you knew they knew it because Teams were trying to trade up to that pick, which is usually a sign you have something special when seven teams are like, hey, what about this? Hey, what if he gave you this? And they're like, no, we're good. We're going to take Evan Mobley. Yeah. And like, so they had to get

lucky to get up there, and then there had to be a guy there at three. You know, three, you go through the history, you know, yeah, there is Michael Jordan, but there is Ennis Cantor. No offense to Ennis Cantor, but you know, not go through the history you know yeah there is michael jordan but there is ennis canter no offense to ennis canter but you know right not an all-star so you know a lot of years it's good james harden but um they were they got in a year where i was and you know it's very rare bill as you know for a rookie to make a difference in winning and losing you know like lebron made a difference in winning and losing. LeBron made a difference in winning and losing,

but he still didn't make the playoffs until his third year. Luka made a difference in winning and losing, but they weren't a playoff team coming out of the gate. To actually be able to say, we're going to win games because I'm in for a 19-year-old is very unheard of. And when you watch him play, he's got a lot of room to grow.

He's going to get bigger and stronger. He's going to polish his game up a little bit. You don't look at him as fully formed. So they had an incredible stroke of luck hit them. And the other thing is Garland, because Garland all of a sudden is an all-star level player, and nobody saw that coming. And an all-star level creator, too. somebody had in the last four minutes of a game I love the decisions he makes and you think like if Philly had said we'll take Garland and Kevin

Love for Simmons in August or September I think Cleveland probably would have done that right why wouldn't they have they I They definitely were interested in that because how were they going to get a player like Ben Simmons? Yeah. But you think like they already had the player, they just didn't realize it. So then you talk, it's weird. I hate saying injuries are luck,

but this is an old football saying about sometimes you're one injury away. And the Sexton Garland thing was weird the first couple weeks of the season because it was clear Rubio and Garland should have been the backcourt that they were closing with I was good I don't even care about the Cavs but I really was attached to Mobley and I was watching them and um and it was just so clear that Ruby Rubio and Garland should be the backcourt but they had this Sexton thing yep and he was such

an important guy for them and they couldn't navigate it they couldn't figure it out he was so clearly better suited to be like a six man off the bench. Then he just gets hurt and Garland just goes to another level. And they didn't extend him, remember? So he went up for an extension. He didn't get it. And JB Bickerstaff saw how good Rubio was out there.

So he started reducing Sexton's minutes. And you're like, boy, how is that going to go? And they had a really tough early schedule. They had to go out west on a a five game trip like the third game of the season which for them i remember that i watched that remember they were they had momentum and i remember i'd done a podcast about i think this i was there for kg i was there for tim duncan i think mobile has a chance i'm not gonna say it's definitely happening but i telling you, he has a chance to get to that level of those guys. And then they played the Lakers and Davis was healthy at that point. And Mobley was so good defensively moving around. And that was the game in the fourth quarter, LeBron and

Davis are like, let's teach the young guy a lesson. And he, he was having trouble keeping up to the speed, but he was in the right spots. It was just, he had never seen anything like that in his life. You go from high school, college to LeBron Davis, like pick and rolls and switches and things like that. But the signs were there, you know, and then, and then the fact that the, that love has been rejuvenated. What were the odds of that 10 to one? Oh man. Well, first off they come back from that West coast trip and this is in end of october early november and something happens that i don't ever remember happening and i got such a kick out of it they go three and two on the trip and it was like the first i don't remember the stat i wish i had

it first time they'd gone on a winning west coast road trip without lebron since like i was in grade school like yeah in the 90s i mean as, Bill. They haven't gone to the playoffs without LeBron since 98. I was a sophomore. I don't even remember. Who was 98? It was like... Sean Kemp?

Kemp, when he still had a little bit of juice. He was past his prime, but he was still like an all-star. Terrell Brandon? Andre Miller. Oh, Andre Miller. Okay.

Zalgowskis was starting to get going. Not a lot of stories about that team. That was a one-and-first-round exit. The last time they won a playoff series without LeBron? 1993. I was a freshman in high school. Yeah, I like that. That was the Price-Doherty era.

I thought those teams were good. Price-Doherty, Nance, yeah. Bad luck. That's a team that four years later probably makes the finals but the team the league was just stacked in the early 90s always thought about this as I've covered LeBron through the years and saw these pacer like the pacers

of the mid but the mid teams with Hibbert before the league changed and Paul George and David West and George Hill and first edition Lance. That was such a fun team. They couldn't get past LeBron. I mean, I related to the Pacer fans.

You just ran into a better player. Seeing LeBron completely devastate the entire chance for Derrick Rose and those Bulls, Joe Kim, Noah, he just beat them every year. And I was like, yeah, I get it. I understand it. I mean, he's done that.

The Hawks had the greatest teams since they moved from St. Louis. Yeah, and they never had a chance. They were getting whitewashed in these playoffs. And that was a good team. So anyway, they go 3-2 on this trip. And first time in forever,

they'd done it. And Kobe Altman, their general manager puts out a statement and it's put, it's issued like on a team Twitter account and the headline. And I think they emailed it out to reporters too. And the headline, it said right on the top of it from the desk of Kobe Altman. Oh yeah.

Do you remember this? I'm in the middle of football season the desk of Kobe Altman. Oh yeah. Do you remember this? I'm in the middle of football season. You probably remember it. And it was basically like, Hey, I'm just going to translate. Hey guys, we think we actually might have a good team here.

We're not going to, we don't want to get too excited, but just so all you fans know, um, we just, we kind of think we've got a good team and it was just kind of a, it was kind of a weird thing, but like they'd been in the winter for four years.

It was kind of like, you know, the first day of spring, you know, remember the first day of spring in college, Bill? Yeah. Yeah. It was a good day. People were wearing shorts. Yeah. It was a good day.

Yeah. Colby Altman's going to win executive of the year. I think the way this is shaping up. Well, let's see what he does with the deadline. That'll maybe define it. Well, if they, is shaping up. Well, let's see what he does at the deadline. That'll maybe define it. Well, if they get Eric Gordon, it's a wrap. He'll win it because that's exactly the guy they need. It's weird because on the one hand,

what you said about just the organizational philosophy to look at your team and say, this is unconventional. This isn't where the league is going. Let's just play our best guys. We need Mobley. Mobley's ability to be able to guard any type of position allows us to do this.

And maybe this would be an advantage. Like that's really smart. I can't give him credit for Mobley dropping to three because if he doesn't take them, maybe he gets a little credit for, God only knows what OKC was offering to move up. Maybe he gets a little credit for holding that off. Garland at four seemed like

a pretty... Everybody pretty much agreed with that pick. Yeah, but they were under some pressure because they drafted Kyrie Irving and the next year they could have taken Waiters or Lillard and they took Waiters because they felt like we can't

have two point guards. Same philosophy as David Kahn with Honey Flynn and Steph Curry. And it obviously blew up in their face. And so when Garland was sitting there, they took him basically because they were like, we know this could be a clash, but we can't make another

Lillard mistake. I didn't love it, but I also didn't love the other options. Yeah, I don't even remember what the other options were. Yeah, it was pretty rough. It was awkward right from the start with that pick. the other options. Yeah, I don't even remember what the other options were. Yeah, it was pretty rough. It was awkward right from the start with that pick. So the Jared Allen thing, I think, is the savviest thing they did because all of a sudden, out of nowhere, there's a Jared Allen fire sale

because he needs to be thrown in that trade and Houston, for whatever reason, says, nah, we don't want Jared Allen, but if you could turn him into a pick, well, let's add that. So now the Nets are don't want Jared Allen, but if you could turn him into a pick, let's add that. So now the Nets are frantically shopping Jared Allen to try to get any sort of a pick. And what's crazy is that somehow the Cavs had the best offer. What was it like?

Was it a pick in the 20s? Yeah, here's what happened. So it was a pick that they had from the Bucs. I think it ended up being like the Bucs have the 27th or 28th pick. I think it ended up turning to Cam Thomas, who's actually pretty good for the Nets. I think the Nets got the pick, but I can't remember. But what they did was

they took on Torian Prince and his $10 million on his contract this year or whatever it was. And that trade is where the Cavs turnaround really started. I mean, I guess you could argue when they drafted Garland, but because that trade also got them

Rubio. And I know Rubio is out now, but Rubio got this going and also can be used in a trade. So they took Torian Prince and flipped him for Rubio. Who now could be used for Eric Gordon. Right. Just a great trade because Rubio was terrific for this team early in the season.

And Rubio helped with Love. You know, you forget Rubio and Love played together in Minnesota earlier in their careers. They got along. And Kevin was in such a bad mood. And I will say this. Kevin deserves credit because we see situations with big contracts out there that are going sideways. Yeah. We see it with John Wall. We see it with big contracts out there that are going sideways.

Yeah. We see it with John Wall. We see it with Ben Simmons, although that's not for lack of skill. That's for other reasons, obviously. It's going to end up that way with Russell Westbrook, whether it's in LA or wherever they trade him. We can see how that's going to end. Increase? The Cavs tried to trade Love 100 different times.

Yeah. He's, he's mouthing off. Like he's doing all kinds of act outs on the court. God knows what would happen behind the scenes. They're finding him and all this stuff, but look where they are now. They hung in there and he accepted, you know,

here's what happened. They came to him. They go, look, we got Jared Allen. We got Evan Mobley and we signed marketing. You know, we can debate about whether the, um, Markkinen decision was wise or not.

I think it'll still be determined. But they're like, you're not going to start. And Kevin could have pouted. And Kevin said, okay, well, here's the deal we're going to make. I will come and give it my all. But if I play well and earn the minutes, you got to play me. Do not John Wall me.

Do not sit me down at the end of the bench. You got to play me. And they said, JB and Kobe said, deal. And they've kept up their end of the bargain. They played him, and he's earned the minutes. And he's not going to win six man of the year, but he'll be on balance. And that is amazing.

And they've needed him, Bill, because they've had COVID and injuries. Well, this week is the best he's looked. Because they had some injuries. I actually thought he looked like Minnesota Kevin Love in the game I watched last night. There was old school 2013

range Kevin Love. He had a 24-point game or something. They had him out of the game at the end because he's a defensive liability. They were having so much trouble scoring because their perimeter is so depleted right now. And I was thinking to myself, and this is something I haven't said in literally years,

they need to get Kevin Love in this game because they need somebody who can make an outside shot. You know, what you said before, and you're right. I'm not disagreeing with it. It's such like an indictment of how the league works now. And it's probably the single thing I like the least about the NBA is that love who's making 32 million a year, who was a problem for them the last couple of years. And then they have to like negotiate

this uneasy truce for him to do his fucking job. And now, kudos to him that he turned it around and that he's back to Kevin Love and he's got his spirit back. I think he's been a great teammate this whole season. But isn't that your job? You're getting paid all that money? And it's like, you're not in control of your own minutes.

That's not how life works. But isn't that Ben Simmons' job too? Yeah, that's what I mean. This is what I mean about it. This is the league now where it's like, I don't really like my situation and now everybody's bending over backwards. The Simmons thing I talked about on my pod on Tuesday where he's

not in the right mental health to play for Philly but if you trade for him, he's going to snap back into it. I just don't fundamentally understand that. This is something that they've wrestled with in the Sixers organization. How do you try to hold a guy responsible to his contract

but also be sensitive to issues he's going through? What is the line to walk? And how do you trade for that if you're another team when it's like, so he's going to be fine with us? How do you know?

Well, this is the thing. So teams have said this or maybe not said this but they've said it with their offers. They're like, how do we know that if we trade for Ben, who's got all these years left on his contract, but if he doesn't like how things go here, he has a bad playoff series here, he won't do the same thing again. And the Sixers have been like, Ben, you know, by doing this, you are hurting your trade value. You are hurting your ability to get traded by doing this. And Ben's response is, you hurting your trade value. You are hurting your ability to get traded by doing this. Yeah.

And Ben's response is, you hurt my trade value. When the coach and the best player came out and slammed me, that's the way I played in the playoffs last year. Oh, wait. Was it even a slam? But was it a slam? It's like Doc Rivers, they ask him after the game, do you think he's the point guard of the future? Did he handle it wrong?

Probably. But it wasn't like he's like, Simmons sucks. I don't know what we're going to do with this guy. It was kind of like a non-supportive answer. And then Embiid, who I think is rightfully frustrated because for last year and this year, he's been one of the best players in the league. And it's like, can I get some help?

I think that's fair. Larry Bird would have done it. Magic would have done it. Michael would have done it. Him passing up that open dunk is one of the most jaw-dropping plays I've seen in the 20 years I've covered the NBA. I was watching the game

live and I reached down to my laptop and I reached down and hit pause and said, did I just see what I thought I saw? I'd never do that. Did I just see what I thought I saw? And I rewound it. In the moment, not like in the next time out.

Like Zach Lowe, he always watches games two minutes behind. You'll be sitting next to him in the bowl, and you'll be watching the game live, and Zach will be sitting next to you with giant headphones on, watching the game on a two-minute delay because he's making notes and stuff. Like, Zach, game right here. But anyway, I did that. And so you're right. Doc gave an honest answer.

An old school guy would say to you, rule number one with every player is never, ever, ever. I don't care if they're 0 for 75 and they've committed 85 turnovers. Never, ever, ever say anything to devalue your players. That's one of the cardinal rules.

So I guess in that regard, a guy like Doc Rivers, who's been around the NBA forever, violated an old rule and he has to take his medicine. But your point is accurate. It's not like if he didn't say that, we wouldn't know the conundrum that they were in. But it is

a convenient thing for Simmons and Simmons camp to point to when there's a complaint about him hurting his value. They can say, they can use it as a defense. And, you know, that's why we're in the,

one of the reasons why we're in this conundrum. Well, it's the most unprecedented situation we've had in 40 years since Gus Williams held out for an entire season with Seattle. We've never seen a player just throw away a year. I mean, MJ obviously did, but he I think really thought he was

retiring at that point. Yeah, but he had a handful of rings. Yeah, and he had already won. This is like, for somebody to be at least, you would think, coming close to entering their prime and thinking it's the best decision for them to just not play basketball is nuts. There's no way this is a better

outcome for him to just not play, to not try to get better, to not work on stuff. It's nuts. There's no way this is a better outcome for him to just not play, to not try to get better, to not work on stuff. It's nuts. That's why they're saying it's a mental health thing because you'd have to be off to not play. How does somebody trade for him then?

We're right back where we started. Let's take a break and we'll talk about the Nets quick. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer.

Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, so on the Nets, the interesting thing to me

with all these Harden, did Wendy freeze? No, I'm sorry. Oh, sorry. Were you looking at text? I was looking at Jason Tatum tweeting out my story, to be honest with you.

Oh, nice. What was your story? I had a story today on Aaron Baines, who, you know, a backup center in the NBA for the last decade. Yeah, he was on my team. Yeah, of course, Celtic.

He, you know, got sacrificed in that weird thing, picked up his option and got traded. He's playing for Team Australia last year in the Olympics. I'm in Tokyo. We were playing the Italians. It's a close game. It's like an important game for the... The Australians, like that Olympics, all those guys

had been building towards for a decade to that Olympics. They thought they could beat the US. They were up 15. And then Durant was like, no, I'm still the best player here. I'm going to kill you. But broke all their hearts. But they did get a bronze medal. First medal ever. Anyway, Baines runs to the back to go to the bathroom. And this arena, it's a football

arena that they turned into a basketball arena. It's empty. It was really weird. It was like 100 yards to get to the bathroom. It this arena, it's a football arena that they turned into a basketball arena. It's empty. It was really weird. It was like 100 yards to get to the bathroom. So he goes, it's a three-point game. So he's like, I got to run to get to the bathroom between the first and second,

the third and fourth quarters. He goes running there to get to the bathroom, slips on the floor, and hits something. He definitely hit his arm because when he came to, he's got two puncture wounds in his arm and maybe hits his head, but tries to stand up and can't

use his legs and ends up afraid he's going to be paralyzed in a Japanese hospital where nobody speaks English and nobody's allowed in because it's COVID state of emergency lockdown for 10 days. And then has gone through, then went through a month in the hospital in Australia. His career was completely derailed. And no one had ever, he'd never told the story to anybody. He just literally disappeared. He ran to go to the bathroom in the third quarter of a game

and never came back. And so I've been talking to his agent, Daniel Molivon for a couple of months. And he said, when Aaron's ready to talk about it, he'll talk about it. So I talked to him this week. He's in Brisbane. And he just told me what he's gone through for the last six months. That story came out today.

Can't wait to read that. Yeah. Aaron is very, well, even though he's a quiet guy and is an Australian, kind of a brute guy, kind of like Steven Adams type player. A lot of people like him. I've heard from some of his former teammates and coaches have texted me. And Tatum, who's one of his favorite teammates ever, Tatum just tweeted about it. So, sorry to distract you. Text Tatum back to go to the basket.

All right. Let's talk about the Nets. So, I think there's been a lot of smoke. I don't really believe a lotrie thing is going to work out. I don't know what's going to happen when Durant comes back from the knee injury and what the intel is on that. Sometimes they'll say, like with the Anthony Davis thing,

he's out for a month. Then a month passes and the guy comes back. Other times you have the Zion situation where it's like, yeah, he broke his foot six to eight weeks. And it's like, nah, that doesn't smell right. And now we're five months in. Eerily quiet on Zion. Yeah, yeah.

The six to eight weeks have somehow lasted a year. The KD thing, I don't know if he's going to come back healthy, but the fact that they're so in flux with all their role guys is kind of the sneaky part with the Nets to me. The fact that Blake's just not good, that they whiffed on Millsap. Harris, we haven't seen. He's still hurt. Second opinion, all that stuff.

Setback, don't tell anybody, but he's not playing. Yeah. Aldridge is the only one that's kind of come through. And then you mentioned a couple of the rookies, Cam Thomas. You got Claxton,

who they're going to have to pay, who it seems like they're already kind of moving away from. And I'm just kind of stunned that the four through 15 has been as bad as it has been for a team. What's their luxury tax this year? Like 120 million, 125. I think it's more, I don't, I wish I could tell you, I would be responsible. It's over that. It's somewhere over 120, I think.

It's the highest of all time. Yeah. So, and they just, so they missed on basically everybody, which I think... Or had bad luck in the case of Joe Harris. You expect him to be your three-and-a-half guy, your fourth option, who's paid kind of as a three-and-a-half star. And he just hasn't played. That's not their fault.

But really, really just kind of nuts how it worked out on top of all the drama. They're, to me, on a knife's edge. Because on one hand, Durant could come... One thing I'll say about Durant, he's had some serious injuries

in his career. He's always come back great. Yeah. You know, he'd come back from... You know, he had the Jones fracture. You know,

he had a setback. But then he was great and he'd come back from the Achilles. Great. He had, you know, this MCL spring when he was with the Warriors.

Came back great. Won the finals MVP. So he could come back and be great. And what if somehow Kyrie plays? I was making a joke to somebody in the league a couple days ago or a week ago. The Nets were in the second seed and the Raptors were in the seventh. And obviously, if that were to happen in April,

they have to get through the play-in term, whatever. But Kyrie couldn't play any of the games because he can't play in Canada and he can't play in Brooklyn. And I was like, watch the league, figure out how to play those games in Buffalo and Newark as a joke. The point is like, I don't know, maybe something will happen where Kyrie will be able to play.

Um, and I don't, I don't think it would be a fun wrinkle. Imagine that. I mean, to be honest with you, if they did it, like. I think they're going to bend the rules. Well, here's the thing.

And you're not as much into the football season as I've been. In the football, they just kind of gravitated toward how can we get as many of these guys in the field as we can. And now eventually, now they're just not testing unvaccinated guys at all. And I think the NBA at some point is going to nudge in the direction. They'll take the heat for one day. And then ultimately it will end in the place where Kyrie plays, is my guess. Yeah, I mean, Kyrie can say he's had it. And I could see them changing the rule to get people back to work.

Anyway, Kyrie has already bet. It's cost him a lot of money. So he has already wagered that he's going to win. And he's already half won the bet. So why would he not win the other half? I mean, I'm just saying. So maybe Durant comes back, fine. Maybe Kyrie gets to play in all the games.

And maybe Harden is fine. And maybe Joe Harris is fine. Maybe they're holding the trophy. It could happen. Okay? It's not unreasonable. Regardless of how bad they're playing. And could there be a buyout guy coming for them? For sure.

Like if they dump Millsap, they dump one more guy, who would be the buyout guy? Somebody. Thad Young. Thad Young is suddenly on their team. Who knows? Let's say the Clippers are deep into the tax. And I don't know what's going to happen with Paul George and obviously Kawhi. We know what's going to happen with Paul George.

Yeah. Okay. and I don't know what's going to happen with Paul George and obviously Kawhi. We know what's going to happen with Paul George. Yeah, okay. So let's say, you know, to save $40 million, the Thunder trade Serge Ibaka, or the Clippers trade Serge Ibaka to the Thunder, who are $20 million under the floor. And they're like, we don't need Serge Ibaka. We're, you know, we got 14 rookies we're playing.

Serge, thank you for coming back. Have a nice day. Oh, Serge Ibaka's a free agent. So yeah, I mean, like it could all work out for them. And like, thank you for coming back. Have a nice day. Oh, Serge Bach is a free agent. So, yeah, I mean, like, it could all work out for them. And, like, if you're Steve Nash and you're Sean Marks, and I've been around the Nets a little bit this year, like, those guys are smart guys. You think, I mean, they know. It's not like they don't know what kind of hand they're holding here.

They're just trying to play their way through it. So it could all work out. But, Bill, but what if this goes the other way? What if they can't play Kyrie in like half of the playoff games and they get or Durant's not 100%

KD has the knee soreness. Harden never loses the extra weight. Harden's already got another hamstring issue. Yeah. Supposedly has another hamstring issue. Harden opts out. hamstring issue. Yeah. You know, what happens if they lose? Supposedly has another hamstring issue. Harden opts out, Kyrie opts out. Yeah. And Durant already opted in thinking the other two guys were joining him.

Right. Yeah. Well, let me ask you this. If you're Joe Tsai, I mean, I know you're worth like $50 billion or whatever, but you're still a businessman. Yeah. What contract are you offering Kyrie Irving? Are you offering him a five-year, $250 million contract?

How can you do that? I'm going the other way. I haven't said this on a pod, and I think you're probably going to agree with me. I would trade Kyrie in the next 10 days if I could get something for him. I don't think they can. I think there's teams that would

talk themselves into it. The problem is, he can opt out. And if it's a place he doesn't want to be, he's already told two places he didn't want to be, Sayonara. So I don't know how you're going to get a premium for it. I'm not saying they'll get a lot for him. But if you're like the Clippers,

and your season's going in a direction that I think we both agree is down, I don't think we see Paul George again this year. I really don't. And you could turn Reggie Jackson and Morris into Kyrie. And either those guys just come off your cap or now you're in pole position with Kyrie and Paul George and Kawhi for a year from now.

I think you have to think, and I'm not reporting this. I'm just trying to think logically, like who would look at Kyrie as an asset? I think the Mavs are playing so well right now that they're probably would steer away. So it's gotta be a team that is either doesn't care if he plays every game

this year or, you know, is trying to take advantage of Brooklyn basically. Well, I could see something like that happening in the summer because it's just awkward. Uh, I think it's hard in the middle of season.

Cause I think again, the Nets best play is to just hope for everything to come for the three guys, which they're saying publicly there. They've been pretty clear about. You know what's interesting? I was looking at FanDuel for the Eastern Conference odds. The Nets are still the favorites.

The Nets are plus 135. Milwaukee's 2-1. I still like Milwaukee the most, but they continue to just lose to teams that you would think like, all right, when are they going to turn on the switch? When's the 15-game winning streak coming? And it just hasn't happened all season.

And then Philly's getting some buzz. They're still the team to beat in my view. That's how I feel. And then Miami is kind of lurking as something. But I don't think from what we've seen from Lowry this year that I trust him for three straight playoff rounds. True. But, you know, they still have the Oladipo thing. I don't know what he's going to give them.

But, like, don't forget about him working back there. Ironically, I forgot about him until you just mentioned him. When are we seeing him again? I mean, he's working out now. I mean, I don't know. Around the All-Star break, a little after maybe.

I don't know what he'll be. The funny thing about the playoffs, the way it's shaping up, is you're going to have these nightmare six and seven seeds potentially. The Bulls might be a six seed, but then they'll be healthy when we get to the playoffs.

Our computers, you want to know the Cavs nightmare scenario? The Cavs somehow get the number, because the Cavs have the third easiest schedule left. They've played a hard schedule. Our computers think that there's like a 20% chance that the Bulls will end up as the seventh seed. Wow.

Because Caruso is so great defensively that the stats, the computers, read Caruso and say, you don't have him, your defense is like 10 points worse per 100 possessions. Jesus. You know, obviously.

So Charlotte's four games behind them. Charlotte is now 27 and 22 and they're healthy. And that would be the swing team because the Celtics, do you know what the Celtics biggest winning streak this year is? Is it three?

Yeah. They've done it twice. They are a 25 and 24 team that has not won four games in a row all season. So I'm going to say they're going to stay around 500. You know, my friend Tim Bontemps lives in Boston and covers the whole Eastern Seaboard for us. And the thing he says about the Celtics is,

why is anybody surprised? They've been a 500 team for a year and a half. Yeah, they basically they're Grandy did something the radio guy Sean Grandy who's a friend of the program

he did a thing he does calendar years what records are so in 2021 there's just more games because of how they stacked the season and I think the Celtics

played like 103 games and they were like 57 and 56 or whatever it is. That's, that's who they are. They've been that way. This is a huge sample size.

Like I thought Jason Tatum might be knocking on the door of first team, all NBA. Yeah, it's not happening. He's, this is a valuable season for him though, because he's learning how to create and it's going to be a couple-year process for him. You're giving a very artful answer.

No, listen. Nobody is more cynical on this team than me probably right now. And I've actually stopped. The last week, I just avoided them. And my life, I felt like my health improved. But Tatum just, he needs to understand. A little like how Garland, for whatever whatever reason he figured it out this year, right? He's figured out

how to navigate a game, how to take over when they need him, how to get the shots that he needs to get, but also keep everyone else involved. Ja's known how to do that instinctively since he got in the league, but you see it this year,

like he could drop 41 last night, but there's other games where he'll lay back and let other guys do it. That's what Tatum needs to learn how to do. Did you like how Ja ripped ESPN after that game? Because ESPN had that Memphis

Spurs game on TV and then they flexed it out. Oh, they moved it, right? They flexed it out to Miami, New York and Ja scored 41, had another great game, and then after the game mentioned it in his postgame presser and tweeted about it. I love it.

By the way, that was a mistake. I think any real basketball fan would rather watch Memphis and the Spurs and Murray going against Josh. I just think that's a better game. As you know, there's big giant things that control that way over our head. I get it. Boston.

I don't want to talk about Boston. Don't do it to me. I am it. Just Boston. I don't want to talk about Boston. I'm such a believer in Tatum. Don't do it to me. All right. I am too. Sorry. I'm there with you on Tatum. Would you pay Garland the max?

He's eligible for an extension this offseason. Would you pay him the max? Yes. Yeah, I think they have to. My thing with them, with Garland and Mobley, protect at all costs. I want those two guys together for the next 12 years. I feel the same way about Brown and Tatum.

I'm not willing to give up on Brown and Tatum when all we've done for five years is seen them shoot first point guards and Marcus Smart. We don't know what they would look like with a real point guard. And this is the thing the Sixers did. They're like, we're going to exhaust every option with Simmons and Embiid before

we break them up. And then Simmons pulled the pin first. But you have to do that. And the situation with Garland, there's a GM that I know who he calls the first max contract. And he can never say it publicly because it would make me look bad. So I just co-opted it. I just stole it from him. He calls it the fun max.

Because the players are younger. Even though it's a lot of money, it's way cheaper. Westbrook's getting mid-40s. The max for a guy who's in his fourth year is like 33. So it's cheaper, quote unquote. Fun max. The players are younger. It's like a no-brainer.

They don't want to get traded yet. They're still, for the most part, they still want to be there. The first Max is the Fun Max. Unless you're giving it to Zion. Oh, boy. And you have no idea if he's ever going to play. Kyle, turn the camera on.

I have a question for Wynhorse. Garland and Mobley, next 10 years, is there any duo on the same team you would rather have? So your choices would be Luka and anybody. Yeah. Giannis and anybody. So let's say Giannis and Drew, although I don't think Drew's going to play for the next 10 years.

No. Tatum and Brown. Then you could go, I guess, Embiid and anybody. That would probably be a poor choice. Ja and Triple J.

You could have them. You could have Aiton and Bridges. Or you could have Curry and Kaminga. Booker and Aiton. Oh, Booker and Aiton. Or I'll give you

Jokic and Murray. Where do Mobley and Garland rank for you in that group? Because for me, they're climbing the ladder. Here's the thing. I love Ja, but I'm terrified of the way he plays. Me too. I feel bad. I've said it on pods.

I feel bad saying it, but he's reckless. He makes me nervous. This is a conversation I have now that I'm in my early 40s that I would never have in my mid-20s because I was like, what are you talking about? He scored 41 last night. He'll score 41 tomorrow night. I've just seen too much now.

But we saw it with Rose and Westbrook. We had the same fears in the beginning of the 2010s with those guys, with how they played. Westbrook, it never really mattered. He only got hurt once. But Rose played that way every game and eventually it caught him. I'm tempted to say Jokic and whoever

because I just think Jokic is a horse, literally, who could play until he's 45. Jokic, if you were going to buy shares, I know that Spencer Dinwiddie messed around with this, but if players were to sell shares in their earnings, I would buy shares in Luka because Luka will make hundreds, I assume hundreds and hundreds.

I mean, he's already got a super max at age 22. Right. He will make hundreds and hundreds of millions. Jokic is going to sign a super max this summer. He's like, what, 26, 27? Yeah, 26. Why? If he wants to play,

why could he not play this exact same way when he's 38? Why? He might even be better when he's 38. I think Giannis is going to age similarly spectacularly. But Jokic is so skilled. No, I'm with you. Because it's basically, it's the Larry Bird scenario

that's haunted the Celtics fans for most of my life, where we had this guy who was going to age into this awesome mid-late 30s player, right? But his body didn't hold up. He had too much damage. And he really was only able to play nine years.

Jokic, you're right. He's just like that, that Jeep in the driveway that's like, there's that thing with 280,000 miles on it. Yeah, it's fine. Want to go cross-country? Yeah, there's no reason he would get hurt unless it was a fluke. I'm going to knock on wood.

I'm knocking on wood. Let's say he did get hurt. Let's say he lost an injury. Was he going to slow down? Alright, so your answer is Jokic. Jokic and Murray is a good one. Jokic and Murray or Jokic

or whoever they get in there. Just because, I mean, I know that doesn't, it's not answering the fun question, but I'm answering it more analytically. I guess the bigger thing for me is Garland and Mobley

are in the conversation now. And the odds of that in even November, I think you would have been like Garland. But I think it's legit. I think he's legitimately a potential all-NBA guard. I could say some things about Mobley

that end up getting me in trouble because of how bright I think his future is. You were talking about that game in LA. I want to say mid-November, he played a game at the Garden back when we thought the Knicks were still going to be good. I watched it. And he did seven things on offense.

He pick and roll as the role man, pick and roll as the passer, threw a diagonal bounce pass, offensive rebound, putback pass. He did eight things on offense. I was just like, Oh my God. And he's really not that involved with their offense.

He's not. It's going to take some time for them to figure out how to use them and for him to develop his skills. And by the way, he's got a worker mindset. This is one of the things that JB Bickerstaff was telling me, you know, his dad's a coach, right? telling me, you know, his dad's a coach, right?

His dad, you know, the USC smartly hired his dad to be an assistant and they got him and his brother, his brothers at USC. Now probably has a good chance to play in the NBA. The Cavs should draft him. If it increases their chances,

the Cavs should draft him. They're keeping Mobley. But sometimes you get these coaches, kids who like, you know, their dad gets a job and it's like, it's not a good situation. It's indicative of a guy who just puts whatever he wants. And sometimes you get these coaches' kids

who are the gym rats, the guys who want to work on their game, who are very coachable because that's how they've been raised. And so I asked JB, knowing nothing about Evan's dad, I haven't done no research, I just said, JB JB what kind of kid

Is he goes no no He wants to be coached His dad knows the game his dad You know yeah he got the job I'm sure because of his son His dad is an excellent coach He raised a kid who wants to be coachable And like they knew

They were taking nobody no matter what They went and did their background on him And every step of the way their background I mean they'd already watched him play a lot they knew they were taking no matter what yeah they went and did their background on him and every step of the way their background i mean they'd already watched him play a lot they knew they're gonna have a high pick wasn't like they didn't know but their background on him was like gold and so they were like did we just did we just luck into a guy that we would have taken first overall we think we did should we say anything about it i don't know like they meanwhile and presti's calling them going what about number six and four first round picks they're like no no we're cool thanks sam yeah what would you what would you trade like is there how many players would you trade mobile

for now it's he's if i did the trade value again if my fingers ever started working he would he would have to be in the top six. He'd have to. There's no scenario where he's not. Way up there. Because you know, I mean, what you said about the coachability and the intellect, like the closest parallel to that, and you can see it just the way his feel for the game is very Duncan-ish. Like when Duncan came into the league that first year,

and he had been in college four years, but he just had it. And the way he moved and how he read things and how fun he was to play with. So he's got that. But he reminds me as a basketball player more of KG. And I said that after I watched him for two weeks. I was like, this guy is very KG-ish. Like you have to be prepared that this KG thing is happening again. He's like a hybrid of KG because of his defense and Bosh.

Yo, that's good. Yeah, I like that. He's got a hybrid of KG because of his defense and Bosh. Yo, that's good. Yeah, I like that. He's got some skill. And people have actually compared him to Duncan, and it's such a taboo thing. Like, oh my God, how can you talk about Tim Duncan on a guy who's played 40 games? But Duncan's first year, he had Robinson, remember?

And Robinson enabled him, enabled Pop to really put Duncan in a position to be successful, I know it's not apples to apples. But having Allen, especially because Mobley is a little undersized in terms of bulk, they let Allen soak up a lot of the tough stuff to be able to put Mobley in a better position to succeed. It's not an outrageous comparison. I don't think at this point, the fact that they're winning puts it on the table.

We are allowed to compare in Garnett and Duncan in real ways now. And I think with the Garnett thing, especially when Garnett was younger, those first couple of Minnesota years, he was guarding everybody. He was probably 20 pounds lighter than he ended up being like in the Boston years. And he could, he just was so

athletic. That was the thing that jumped out. It's like, Jesus Christ, he can guard guards. And that's how I feel about mobile. All right. Before we go quick question. Um, last question, does Simmons get traded before the deadline in In 30 seconds, what's your answer? Man, like I have no clue how to read what Daryl is doing. He gave an interview on WIP in Philadelphia last week. Did you read about it or hear it? I heard about it, yeah. I mean, I know, you know Daryl really well. Like whenever Daryl says something,

I know that he's got 15 things moving. Yeah. It's very hard for me to read stuff. I'm talking to teams that are talking to the Sixers, and they're like, some of these trade things that he's asking for, we don't even know what to say.

Is he offering something that he knows we won't take? Nobody even knows. So, to me, the wild card in the entire thing is Josh Harris. Because Josh Harris, the owner, he is paying the luxury tax on this team. He is watching Embiid dominate.

Like, Philadelphia has had some incredible players in their history. Wilt, AI, Barkley, Embiid's season up there, like statistically adjusted compared to some of Chamberlain's stuff is like one of the great seasons in Philadelphia history.

Right. The per 36 is nuts. They're sitting in sixth place. Yeah. So, is Josh Harris content to go through a season

and have his team president not execute a trade? Because remember, Josh Harris had Sam Hinkes back until he did. And also, you want to have some fun in terms of billionaire games, Google Josh Harris right now, what's going on elsewhere. Let's just say it's interesting. It's like you could make a movie out of it between him and Leon Black, his former partner at Apollo Global Management. Yeah. There's been some...

If the Wall Street Journal had a page six, Josh Harris and Leon Black would be on it every day for the last week. So I'm watching that very closely. I love when you go, I love when you talk about being billionaires. No,

this is good stuff. Do you want me to tell you real quick? No, no, people should Google it. Google it. Quickly,

on this, and then we really have to go. You mentioned that Josh Harris is the wild card. Yeah. I think Embiid's the wild card. Maybe. Because,

Embiid, who I think has reached a Q the wild card maybe because what Embiid who I think has reached a Q rating in Philly unlike any basketball player they've had since Iverson like that's

I don't even think that's a controversial statement what happens if he's like hey man I'm killing myself right now I'm playing the best I've ever played and our second best player

isn't here and doesn't want to be here. Are we going to resolve this? Because I think we have a chance to win the title. We're just going to get nothing for that asset. Either trade Ben or he's got to come back, but this sucks. Do something. And he hasn't done that yet. He's been very careful. So far, he's

been publicly supportive of Daryl and as far as I know, he and Daryl have been on the same page about this for a long time. It's January 20, whatever. It's not February 8th, 9th, 10th. So I know this. Joel Embiid is not playing this way to be in sixth place. That's pretty obvious. We'll see what happens. Brian Windhorst, a pleasure to see you as always. We can listen to you

on the Hoop Collective. We can watch you on ESPN, on all the channels and we can read you on ESPN.com. Right now, it's football, football, and I get it. I get it. Okay. All right. Good to see you. Thank you. Take care. All right. Peter Schrager is here. We do million dollar picks every week. We only have two weeks left. Kind of sad. On the other hand, two great games that I'm excited about, that I have strong opinions about, that we're going to talk about later

when we do million dollar picks. You did on the Flying Coach podcast with McVay. You had Shanahan on and it was amazing. We re-ran some, re-ran, I can't speak. We re-ran some of the stuff from that podcast this week on the ringer and the big brother, little brother relationship they have. And it really came out. It was really one of the best pods that podcast this week on the ringer and the big brother, little brother relationship they have. And it really came out.

It was really one of the best pods we did last year. And now they're playing each other for the third time. The consensus is Shanahan has McVay's number. And yet the Rams are favored by three and a half. I think people are leaning toward the Rams a little bit in general and mostly Jimmy G related. But the relationship from these guys, what happens with them the week leading up to the game? Do they talk? Do they pretend they don't know each other? What is it? Yeah, they're not talking,

not talking this week. It was McVay's birthday earlier this week. And I texted him like, happy birthday, whatever. I'm like, have you heard from Kyle? He's like, no, I have not heard from Kyle. So I don't think they're talking this week. You nailed it with the big brother, little brother. And I think Sean would bristle at that because they're not family necessarily, but six years older than him is Kyle Shanahan. And for three years, he was Sean's boss. And you could say, well, there was a different head coach. It was in those rooms. It was Kyle Shanahan, the offensive coordinator. And McVay started off as the assistant tight ends coach, then became the tight ends coach. And he learned a lot from how Kyle does things. And he has the utmost respect for Kyle. A lot of your of them together because I've gotten to know them really well. And the dynamic is like, they love each other, but there's a lot of ball busting. And at the end of the day, Kyle is like walking

away and probably feeling like, all right, Sean's the boy wonder, but I've kind of got my confidence in what I can do. And over the field of the last three seasons, 6-0, it eats at Sean. Of course it eats at Sean. And when you're up 17-0 in the second quarter on a 3-2 and you go to the empty shotgun, you could have, I mean, because that's the thing, they could have put the Niners away. They would have been eliminated. Instead, they go shotgun, Stafford gets sacked, Niners get the ball back at the end of the half, they kick a field goal, and then they get the ball back score again. That game went so many ways wrong for the Rams when early on McVay's running on the field to hug receivers and Tyler Higby, the tight end. But that relationship, it's so intertwined. It's not just through Kyle and through Sean, but you go through Sean's defensive coordinators, Raheem Morris, he was the defensive backs coach for those teams, uh, in Washington when they were all together, Kyle's offensive coordinators, Mike McDaniel, he's in that whole world. He's been with those guys both before. Um, and then of course you go through all the different players and how they've all intersected playing each other two times a year of the last three years, six wins in a row. And it's real as far as that dynamic goes. And I did the research and I looked in, I'm like, has there been other coaches that have just owned other coaches? And never as close personally as these two are, but Jeff Fisher had lost to Brian Billick five years in a row. And then finally, in the 2003 playoffs in a wildcard round,

Eddie George and Steve McNair finally beat Ray Lewis. Like, finally. And they don't hear that anymore. It's never like, well, Brian Billick always owned Jeff, because it's over. Like, in the big game, they did it. And then the other one is Bill Cower, oddly enough, used to always beat Belichick when Belichick was with the Browns,

Cower with the Steelers. And it took until that 2001 divisional round game where Bledsoe comes in off the bench and hits the touchdown and they go into Pittsburgh and win where finally Belichick got the best of Cowher. But it's very, very small, small sample size of six games and then facing off in the playoffs. I look back at that week 18 game. And to me, it makes me want to pick the Niners more, which we'll get to later because I feel like the Rams won that game.

They won it if they just go into halftime at 17-0 and don't fuck up the last two minutes. But they fucked it up and they gave the ball back and the Niners were able to get that little field goal. Then all of a sudden they had the ball start in the second half and it's 17, 10, but then the end of the game where the Niners have to punt their kickers punting out of his own, which was seemed kind of controversial as it was happening. Like, why are they doing this? And then the Rams can't put them away again. But, you know, Ben Solak wrote a really good piece for the ringer this week about those two offenses and how they've evolved and how they've had to keep adding as the

defenses kept scheming against each of them and trying to figure out, Oh, you guys love to do this. So we're going to take this away. And both of them, I think are in a pretty precarious place in this game where the Rams can't really run the ball. Right.

And you think like, Oh, acres, this is it. Here we go. He fumbled twice. Like he, those fumbles were-

He's averaging 2.7 yards per carry in those two games. And Tampa swallowed him up. And now we know this, Niners run defense is incredible. But then on the flip side, Jimmy G, who was taking a beating all week

to the point that Debo Samuel like did a tweet defending him this morning. Like, keep coming at my quarterback. He did one of those. You had these two teams that have these warts. Depending on how you feel about the game,

you could seize on either wart. You could just be like, no, Jimmy G's not winning three road playoff games in a row. I'm not betting on that. Taking the ramps. I think Joe House is going to be on that side when he does the gambling show on Friday. It's like, how many actual drives have the Niners put together? He's going to do this whole thing. This is, I think Joe house is going to be on that side when he does the gambling show on Friday. It's like how many actual drives have the diners put together? He's going to do this whole thing. Fuck you house.

Um, on the flip side, the Rams, they Rams can take a lead and just blow it. We've seen that do it twice in three weeks, happened twice in three weeks. You're right. And everything went wrong for the Rams.

And it was like, you felt Brady's presence. And even Odell in the post game is being interviewed by Catherine Tappan. And he's like, I saw the goat on the other sid And it was like, you felt Brady's presence. And even Odell in the post game is being interviewed by Catherine Tappan. And he's like, I saw the goat on the other sideline, which like,

you're kind of showing your cards that like, you knew that this was unraveling and the center. Did the goat make Cam Akers fumble right before the half? Or Cooper Cup, who never fumbles.

Yeah. Fumbles. Or Mike Evans burning Jalen Ramsey just on a straight go route. Killing him. What about the snap over Stafford's head? I know. Brian Allen, who's a really good center to snaps it over his head. Really weird things were happening and you felt it. Now I, I was talking with Kyle Brandt from good morning football and they were like, what's the better storyline quarterback

wise. And I would love your thought on this. Cause you love big picture. Is it the Jimmy G? Hey, F you, you guys can trade three first round picks and I'm not going to win, but I'm not going to win pretty, but we're going to win games. Or is it Stafford who, Bill, I was going through it and I really lean on you for this. Oscar Robertson is who I thought of like years in, you know, playing for the Royals and then finally gets to Milwaukee and finally wins when he gets surrounded by the right guys. Gary Carter was with the Expos, goes to the Mets and finally wins. And then to you, I get Kevin Garnett in Minnesota, then finally gets to Boston. But that's Stafford, 12 years of being really good and just never having a shot of actually doing anything.

And then finally, finally gets the right pieces, finally the right situation. And in the biggest moment of this guy's career, finally, his first opportunity to do any big moment, there was the perfect pass to Cooper Cup. I thought it was awesome. It was like slaying a dragon, throwing off the monkey, whatever you want. And yet people are still resistant to wrap their arms around Stafford. I'm like, this is a pretty good story. Guy's been a really good dude and a great ambassador for the sport over the last 13 years. Finally has an opportunity to actually do something.

I'd like to apologize to Oscar Robertson and his family that you just compared Matt Stafford to. Well, come on. The triple-double. Oscar Robertson is one of the 12 best players ever. Couldn't win the big one. I would say, to me,

it's more of like a poor man's KG situation. Okay. Because I think that you could, the Minnesota Timberwolves I would say to me it's more of like a poor man's KG situation okay because I think that you could the Minnesota Timberwolves in the mid-late 2000s and and just same kind of snake bit thing

they only really had one year where they ever even went anywhere in the playoffs and they had Fred Hoiberg at the two guard if I'm not mistaken terribly run weird ownership

I don't think he was as good as a football player as KG was as a basketball player, but I think that's a good parallel. KG goes to Boston. Loaded team. Bunch of all-stars. Yes. A lot of pressure. They kind of almost cave a couple times. Yep. Same here. Yeah. And we saw that with that. I guess the thing for me with the Rams, they're laying three and a half points. To me, this is like, I think these teams are even, and I actually think the Niners might be, I'm going to say a whiff more talented just the way their defense is playing

and the game breakers they have offensively. I just like their team more. I felt that way for weeks. So it's not anything new. So you would say, well, the Rams are home. I don't know what that's going to mean in this game. And I know they've tried to curb some of the ticket stuff, but I also know between the Bay Area, which is an hour flight away, and then there's a lot of Silicon Valley people that live here.

There's just decades and decades of Niners fans everywhere, which you guys tapped into with all the Cowboys-Niners stuff you did on your show that week. There's just way of Niners fans everywhere, which you guys tapped into with all the Cowboys Niner stuff you did on your show that week. There's just way more Niners fans. It's not close. There's not a ton of Rams fans here. The prices are way up. And I think it's going to be 50, 50 from a crowd standpoint.

I think it's going to feel way more like a soccer game than a football game. So to me, the line should be like Rams by one max and it's Rams by three and a half. And I think it goes back to Jimmy G. I just think people, they, those, the last few weeks are in their heads with him of like, he's going to throw the terrible interception, the fluttering out passes that always seem like they're about to be picked and people are afraid to take them. And then they're down 17, nothing again.

And now he's not bringing them back. I get take them. And then they're down 17, nothing again. And now he's not bringing them back. I get it, but I think they're better. The crowd thing. Let's get into it a little bit. So they had that game. And like, I talked to all these teams and they're usually very defensive of that. The Rams to a man are like, and it was all red. It was all 49ers fans. Like that can't happen again. And so Kelly Stafford, Matthew's wife, came out and said that Matthew had to go to the silent count at home, which is the most damning thing you could ever hear for a fan base that they couldn't hear anything because of how loud it was with the Niners fans. So then the next week, the Cardinals come in on Monday Night Football,

totally different fan base. I get it. But that Rams crowd showed up and it's like optimism, like, all right, LA, they might not come out for a week 18 game, but playoffs, we need celebrities. That's the wrong take. The Cardinals just don't have fans. They don't have the fans. I know. So then the thought is this week, what do you do? So they did the thing with the tickets. That's all real. And then they pulled that and they were there only selling people with the Los Angeles zip code, which was, I don't know whether it's art of war and it's just like, Hey, survival, the fittest, like we don't care if you don't like it. Like we're trying to do everything we can. By the way, a lot of teams do that. They're not the first team. That's the other part I was going to say. Like a lot of teams do that. You just don't know

it and it's not publicized. The second part of it is I saw Stafford's wife said they're going to buy up a bunch of tickets and give them to Rams fans. I think Andrew Whitworth is going to do the same thing. This sounds pathetic. It sounds desperate. They know they're a game away from the Super Bowl. They want to go to the Super Bowl. And that makes a major impact if you have zero home field advantage and if your entire stadium is covered in red, because those Niners fans will invade that place. And they're not a friendly group. They're not a Packers fan base where it's like, oh, it's cool you made the trip. No, no, no. They're there to win and they're savages. So this Niners team has been to 17 different conference championship games. They are one of the most successful franchises and they're going up

against a team in a market that just hasn't had that same sort of roots. And it's just going to be a true fact. You're going to look at that game. Aikman and Buck are going to come out. It's a good chance. It's a lot more red than yellow and blue. Also, an impressive franchise with how they were able to reinvent themselves even over the course of the last 12 years.

Because you think they had that one run where they could never, Seattle ended up being the one from the conference that won the Super Bowl. But they were in that mix there for three, four years. And they were one of the best teams. And, you know, Kaepernick, all that stuff. And then that goes down.

Then they reinvent themselves again. And it's like, now they have a chance to two Super Bowls in three years, which ain't nothing. And they also have, I think from a talent standpoint, just a lot of blue chippers who are arrow pointing up and arrow pointing down. Yeah.

Five conference championships in 11 years. I think a lot of... It's impressive. Conference championship games. I think a lot of people would sign up for that. And Jed York,

who was in his early 30s when he took over and was, you know, widely parodied during the Harbaugh stuff at the end. And then they went to Tumsula and Chip Kelly. There were some real valleys there. But the hire of John Lynch

was considered comical by football people. It's turned out okay. They've had multiple different people in their front office poached by other teams because they're that good, including the Vikings' new general manager who was with the Niners for several years. But I would also say this with their acquisitions.

Forever, they were the ones linked to Odell Beckham. Forever, they're the ones linked to Antonio Brown. And they resisted. They kind of just went with their own way. And they've drafted Kittle in the fifth round. And they drafted Debo in the second round. And the trades they've made, Jimmy Garoppolo, successful. You look at Trent Williams,

successful. And then I think an underrated acquisition was they signed a fullback for huge money in Kyle Juszczyk a few years ago, where no one else uses a fullback. It's a Solax article, which I thought was great. Kyle Juszczyk is a fullback and he is used as a fullback in 2022. And he is maybe the unicorn of that position. And he was given the ball in a lot of key positions and key spots during the season. So I love the way they built their team. It's a lot of guys that they drafted themselves, Fred Warner, Bosa, all of them are Niners. And then the acquisitions they did make were huge swings and they usually hit. They got really lucky with the Bosa thing because when they finally bought him out in the 2019 draft,

Kyler goes first, their division right rival, Arizona and Nick Bosa second, which I think everybody thought that was the right pick, but just to have either Bosa in this day and age, I've been meaning to ask you this. Every time I watch a football game now, everyone talks about how important it is

to be able to rush four, be able to drop back. And it's like this recurring theme in every game I well love. You can rush four. If you just get pressure with four, then that open. So why doesn't every team just try to rush four?

Yeah, it's a great strategy, right? It seems like it works. It seems like that's, if you had that, you're good to go. Even like freaking Vegas had that. But anyway, Bosa, I think in general, you see in that draft, like Bosa was two, Devin White was five,

Josh Allen was seven, the defensive Josh Allen. But in general, like I wonder if there's going to be more of a premium on these guys. We see in this draft that's coming up this year, there's a few of those guys. And I wonder if that model of like, we just need to have a good defensive line. I wonder if that's going to be like the new trend. Yeah. I mean, quarterbacks and pass rushers. And if you can get a left tackle that you could

plug in there for the next 15 years, like those are, that's why you don't see receivers going in like the top three. And that's also why the Saquon pick even then was, was such a head scratching decision for the giants because you had Chubb, who hasn't really developed as a superstar, but is still a very good pass rusher. And then you had Quinton Nelson at an offensive guard position. And then, of course, Josh Allen after that, the other Josh Allen, the Bills one. But Giants fans still bang their heads against the table that how could we let a great offensive lineman

or a great pass rusher go for a running back? Well, you also just could have done the trade down that the Colts did and loaded up on all those picks. Are Giants fans, have they reached a point emotionally where they've allowed themselves to think about that they could have taken Josh Allen with the second pick? I still think Barkley was the right pick because they took him over Sam Darnold,

but was Josh Allen even the mix for the Giants back then? Yes, and Joe Shane was just hired by the mix for the Giants back then? Yes. And Joe Shane was just hired by the Giants. He's the Bills GM. And I remember back at that draft, and I remember the morning of the draft, Josh Allen had a tweet and everyone was like, when did he tweet this? What's the tweet? Oh, the high school tweets. Yeah, I remember that. And I remember calling Brandon Bean, the general manager that morning. And I'm like, is he off your board? And he's like, off our board? No, Josh is a great kid. We've had him here. We addressed the tweets ourselves. We saw it before everyone did. Of course, we've done our research. And I think,

if I recall correctly, he had Josh Allen ranked above Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, all those guys. And it wasn't a slam dunk that it was Baker or Darnold. A lot of teams liked Josh Allen. It's just that he slipped all the way down to seven. I put on Instagram a photo of me and Josh Allen because I was at the Masters that year and we went to the CAA party. And I think that was probably maybe two weeks before the draft.

But at that party, everyone thought Josh Allen was going first. Remember that? It was the first 10 days of April. It was like, Josh Allen's going to Cleveland. They're taking him. And when we met him, I was like, God, this guy's going to be the first pick. That's so cool. And then

he fell all the way to seven. Never know the draft. What'd you make of him then? Because his personality is, and we're getting to know him a lot better now, like they all say there that he's goofy. He's like a little like quirky and like not like this alpha, like he's the man, but he's also self-deprecating, likes to fuck around. What was he like then coming into the NFL? Did he give you that side

of him or was he super guarded? So we did a bunch of podcasts when we were at the Masters, and we talked about hanging out with Josh Allen because we liked him. We were like, kind of see it. And it's weird because Cause, and I, and there's a whole theory on this that I'm sure you've heard people talk about, about just hanging with quarterbacks, like what you have to look for. First of all, he's, he's obviously huge. He was like six, five, but he just had a charisma to him and you could see it. And it was like, all right, I can see that guy in a huddle with two minutes left and Oh, 70,000 wearing crap. Cause there's been other people. I remember remember i don't want

to be mean there was this one quarterback from the 2000s and okay some of my friends were like you ever hang out that guy's a dork and it made total sense that his career sucked as a quarterback but i think i actually think it's a quality jimmy has i think it's his number one best quality as a quarterback you see it he has real charisma and I think his teammates like him and respond to him. You saw it. And not only did Debo come out, but like Richard Sherman came out and he's on the Buccaneers. And he's like,

you don't get it. Jimmy's the man. Like they love Jimmy because even when this whole thing happened, Jimmy's confidence didn't like, he's completely above it. They trade for Trey Lance. You know what he did when they traded for Trey Lance? He texted Trey Lance,

welcome aboard, buddy. Can't wait to get started. Like take that. And then compare You know what he did when they traded for Trey Lance? He texted Trey Lance, welcome aboard, buddy. Can't wait to get started. Take that and then compare it to what Rogers did, where maybe he was a little warmer to love personally, but just publicly, it was what it was. I just don't think Jimmy Garoppolo's phased by anything. So when he goes into Lambeau, he's like, all right, I'm going to throw three shitty passes that are wobbling ducks, but they didn't get picked and we won. So what are you gonna do about it? You know, I like that quality. You know who else got it

with Jimmy? It was Tom Brady. Yeah. He's on his corner in a real way from the get-go. I think that was a real issue. Like he saw how his teammates

responded to Jimmy. They loved him in New England. Loved him. And it was like, oh, this is guys in my corner. All right, when we come back, we're going to talk about

the parallels between the 07 Giants, one of your favorite teams, and the 2021-22 Niners. It's hard to deny this Niners-2007 Giants thing. I did some work. I went back, I went over that Giants season that I know you remember well. And the parallels.

So Giants on the road that whole time. Punishing front four, which I think we've really seen with the Niners. Couple of really high-end playmakers. A frustratingly decent QB. Is that fair for Eli? Is that a fair way to assess Eli in 2007? Yes.

Frustratingly decent? I mean, if the Giants fans are listening, you have to just think back to Thanksgiving weekend against the Vikings, where I think he threw three interceptions at home and it was like he couldn't throw in the wind and it's like, is this the guy? Yes. That was how Eli was that season. Yes. Tough as shit team. That team was 10 and six, but had that famous week 17 Pats game when they was like holy shit

they're going toe-to-toe with Pats and this is the big quality other than everything I just mentioned but this one I think is a really important quality with the Niners

a big drive every time they actually need one no matter how they look for the rest of the game I think when they actually really need a drive they've shown over and over again

they can get it. And I really value that. Like even that Lambeau game, right? Like Rodgers, choke job. Three and out. Flat out choke job. Two three and outs in a row. Right.

When he had a chance to put the game away. We have the block punt as well. But the Niners got the ball back. They still had to get some first downs and got the ball back. They still had to get some first downs and move the ball close enough to get Debo handoff third and seven. It's the kind of

team I just like betting on. I've liked them for six, seven weeks. It's just my kind of team. They can play in a dome. They can play in zero degree weather. They can win a 17-14 game. I feel like if they had to, they could win a 30-27 game where you're like if they had to, they could win a 30-27 game where you're like, how did they get to 30

points? And it reminds me of that annoying Giants team. That Giants team, they beat Tampa 24-14. The Dallas game was crazy. They win in Dallas 21-17, which if you look at the stats and if you remember what happened, it was unclear how they were winning it as they were winning it. At the end of the half, Eli had

an amazing drive at the end of the half. And it was like, the Gi the end of the half, Eli had an amazing drive at the end of the half. And it was like, the Giants are in this game. And then another amazing drive at the end of the fourth quarter. Mary and Barbara, I think, rushed for like 130 that game or something. That's my quarterback game with T.O. crying afterwards because they couldn't get the job done. Then they win in Lambeau, which a game that popped up last week. Overtime, 23-20.

Freezing weather. And then they beat the Pats 17-14. Just close games, tough pedigree. A quarterback that's a heart attack half the time, but just over and over again seems to make plays. And the team really seems to believe in them for whatever reason. And I think they remind me of them. What do you think?

I think it's a great comparison. And that team won obviously three road games and made the trip. And they were coached by a coach, Tom Coughlin, who didn't suffer any fools, looked across the sidelines and saw, all right, John Gruden, I can out-coach John Gruden. Saw Wade Phillips, I can out-coach Wade Phillips. All right, Mike McCarthy, I can out-coach him. And then it went up against Belichick and was not scared to throw punches in that game. You've watched that game a million times. The Giants did not back down. They rushed all those guys. And it wasn't just OC and Tuck and Strahan. You had Jay Alford breathing down his neck. You had Dave Tollefson breathing down his neck. That's what this Niners team is. They have guys that you're watching. You're like, I don't know who that is. I don't know that guy.

And he just made an amazing play. Why is he not on my team? Who is that big 92 that's going around? It's not just Armstead. It's not just Bosa. They have a ton of guys. And then in the middle of that giant, we're really going deep. The Giants team, they had Antonio Pierce making plays all over. That's Fred Warner. Fred Warner, where Antonio Pierce caused a huge fumble in that NFC championship game. Fred Warner sees Mercedes Lewis have the ball and he's like, all right, Mercedes Lewis is getting, I'm knocking that ball loose. Like that's opportunistic. I love this Niners team.

Love this Niners team. I just don't know if this is the end of the road, if they have this too much banged up players and it's been too many games one after one after another to pull one more of these out. So it's like a, it's a four straight playoff game for them, basically, dating back to the week 18. So from a health standpoint, Trent Williams banged up, but he's playing. Jimmy G, probably the healthiest he's going to be in a few weeks because the shoulder will be a little better. He's going to be in a dome. He doesn't have to

worry about the freezing cold, things like that, but he's not 100%. What about Debo? Debo, we saw him on the sidelines in that giant overcoat and you're like, oh, he's in the parka. He's not coming back. And then he makes that amazing play. He's apparently good to go. But like you saw at the end of that game, that game was punishing. Yeah, it was. I mean, you saw Fred Warner's playing, you know, injured, finds a way to get it done. Bosa coming off the concussion. There's a lot of, and I don't want to say that these guys aren't going to be a hundred percent. I don't know their status. They'll find a way to play. No doubt. Those guys are too tough not to, but it has been

a grind for this team. And I'm just not sure that they can score enough to keep up with this Rams team on Sunday. Eight days rest, not seven. So Niners run D, which I think is an important piece of this. Going back to Week 10 Rams, 10 carries, 52 yards, the Rams had. They played the Bengals, 26 carries, 86 yards. Played the Titans on that Thursday night, 24 for 90. Packers last week, 20 for 67. Cowboys, 21 for 77.

And then you have this Rams team. I don't know how they trust Akers in this game. Two fumbles. That puts you on the no trust list for me. And both times just didn't protect the ball, especially the second time was

inexcusable. And then Sony's the backup. Very familiar with his work. I just don't think they'll be able to run the ball at all on them. And it makes me nervous taking teams who can't run the ball in physical, tough playoff games. It's going to be a clash of styles. And again, to reference Ben Solak's article,

these two teams came in with the same kind of offenses in 2017. They couldn't be more divergent offenses now. The Niners want to run the ball down your throat and Jimmy will have to make one or two big plays a game for them to win. It's all on Stafford in LA and it's all on finding cup and finding Odell and finding Higby. The run sets up the pass. And I think, I mean, I could see Sean going five wide for a lot of this game and just saying, we're not even going to bother with the running. But then if you don't get it, it's three and out and all of a sudden Niners have the ball back and it's another seven, eight minute drive Yeah I know I just Did you notice the week 18 Niners

449 yards Rams Rams 265 The The thing that jumped out In that game As it went along And that was a great game

I really enjoyed it It was awesome The Iuke and Jennings Blocking Blocking But also 12 catches For 201 yards combined

It wasn't like just Debo running a mock He had the big play at the end But it was really Blocking. Blocking, but also 12 catches for 201 yards combined. It wasn't like just Debo running amok. He had the big play at the end. But it was really those other two guys, and I felt like they unlocked something. So if Jimmy's more healthy this week, that's another one. The Rams had 27 rushes for 64 yards in that game. I don't see much changing.

And then you think the interception things. Jimmy's going to throw one, but probably Stafford does too. You'd guess he had two in week 18. He hasn't had one in the playoffs. He's been perfect in the playoffs, Stafford, those last two games. He hasn't thrown an interception. Now there's been turnovers. I don't know.

I feel like if he doesn't throw an interception, they're fine. That's asking a lot because San Francisco is really good and really opportunistic. But I still am not sold on their defensive backfield in a neutral weather, you know, LA day that Stafford can't have his way with those guys. They played awesome. And D'Amico Ryans deserves all the credit against Rodgers and Adams. Rodgers, I mean, we didn't really get a chance. You did it with Cousins. Rodgers was only throwing to Devante Adams. It was bizarre. bizarre. It was crazy. That deep pass on that third and eight where it's into double coverage, Alan Lazard is sitting wide open 12 yards down the field.

He could have... I don't know what the game plan was. Was it like, I'm just going to stubbornly throw the ball to the... No, he hero balled it. He was just like, I only trust one person and I'm cold. And guess what?

I'm just going to throw it to him. Well, so the Rams, who, if you remember, only two weeks ago, we were like, what do we make of this Rams-Cards game? These two stay-away teams. Anything could happen. I was like, when in doubt, take the points. Took the cards. Regretted it immediately, but

certainly didn't feel good about either team. So they beat that bizarre Cards team where Kyler just takes a shit in the first half. Like, just has diarrhea all over the field. Lovely. Then last week, this banged up Bucks team that in the second quarter was basically like

here, just you guys take it. Done. You beat us 38 to 10. We don't care. They're about to go into the end zone to go up 27-3. It's a wrap. Acres. Fumble.

And then three more. Like, I just can't get that excited about the Rams. I'm sorry. But what about how to finish? Because of those two wins. 42 seconds left. Their ball is backed up. The world is melting.

It's 24 points straight that they've scored. And Stafford hits cup one time. It was a great throw. It was one of the biggest defensive brain fart strategy moments ever. I don't know. How about the offensive side of it here? So that play is called the for the love of the game route because what Cup is told to do is to run a dead sprint to open up the field. Now he's running a dead sprint. That's like a 4-4-40 right down the middle of the field. And you have to run it as fast as you can because you want to make sure

that the safety has to travel with you so that you can have the underneath. Well, Cup goes and then Stafford sees him. He's like, holy shit, he's got a step on him and throws it like the balls to throw that pass. And then he actually catches it. I thought those 42 seconds erase the quarter and a half that preceded it. That was just freakish turnovers and the world melting. I thought to actually come out of that with a win is more impressive than, hey, how disastrous would that loss have been? It was a weird one because it's like, wow, amazing win. We did it. But then you have these baggage things from it. It's like, do we trust Cam Akers now? What happened to our defense? What happened to Jalen Ramsey? Like just

four minutes left, Jalen Ramsey just make sure Mike Evans doesn't do anything and he gets torched. So what does that mean? I don't know. I didn't like it. Let's talk Chiefs Bengals quickly because I think we're veering toward the same spot on this. Chiefs have won 10 of their last 11. Their last seven games, they've scored 48, 34, 36, 34, 28, 42, 42. You don't even need to say the Chiefs are back. Mahomes at home in the playoff, 7-1. Against the spread, 6-2. You have the Bengals who barely beat Vegas. I'll never understand why David Carr spiked the ball. Derek Carr. David Carr, whoever spiked the ball. Derek Carr. Derek Carr. Still. Derek Carr. David Carr.

Whoever spiked the ball. Collective Carr family. They barely beat the Titans. Barely. And the Titans were awful. It was as big of a... The Titans were awful. Laying of an egg of an offensive sideball

because their defense was awesome. Their offense was horrendous. Horrendous. Couldn't block. So then, in my head initially, I'm thinking, oh man, I watched Bengals-Chief. That was a slugfest.

Week 17, Bengals 34, Chiefs 31. Game was in Cincinnati. No McKinnon in that game. No McKinnon, no Clyde Edwards-Hilaire either. No Edwards-Hilaire in that game. Chiefs were up 14, blew it. Blew the lead. Bengals

ran for 19 for 60. Chase had the 16th biggest wide receiver game of all time. And the third biggest in the last five years. 266 yards and three touchdowns. How often does that happen? He had 11 catches. He had 12 targets.

He broke like a bubble screen for like 80. He had another one where they just like a bubble screen for like 80. He had another one where they just chucked it and he just made this incredible play. So we have all of these things pointing to, yeah, the Chiefs lost by three, but they had their third and fourth string running backs. They blew a lead and Chase had one of the great games of all time.

And the Bengals still barely won by three. It's funny because that's the angle I have. And I know Bengals fans would say, don't you dare dismiss that because the Chiefs were playing for first place. Yeah, it was a great win. I'm with them. There was a play at the end of the first half

that Tyreek was wide open. They threw him the pass. It was in his hands. Von Bell knocks it away. But if they catch that, it's a different deal. There's a play to Travis Kelsey. I watched the game this week. There's a play to Travis Kelsey, big third down. He inexplicably drops it. There's a strange third and 27 play call from the Chiefs. And then the craziest thing

was it was fourth and six. They're going back and forth and they're on the Cincinnati 45. And Andy, of all people, decides to punt it away. And then the Bengals came right back and scored. You have to think that, okay, 266 yards and three touchdowns from Jamar Chase is what it took to beat us. Let's hold them to 200 this week or let's hold them to 150 and we win this game, especially in Arrowhead. I think Joe Burrow's quote was taken a little bit out of context, but he basically said it's loud in a lot of SEC stadiums, whether it was out of context or not, because he was showing respect to the fans. I know those Chiefs fans. I know those Chiefs message boards. And I know they hear that and they're like, Ooh, that's a challenge. Let's do this thing. I could see this one being one of those deals where Cincinnati, awesome miracle season, Joe Burrow's doing things

no quarterback has ever done as far as going right from college to right to an AFC championship game to possibly right to a Super Bowl. But I just, I think this might be too big a hill to climb. And also, this has already been

an awesome season for them. And it's a little reminiscent to the Bills getting there. A couple years ago, right? The Browns last year, it was like, wow, that was great. Congrats, Browns.

You really built something for the... I just can't see them beating the Chiefs twice in four weeks. Now, you could say the same about Niners-Rams, but I just think the Chiefs... I think last week was the AFC title game. I hate putting it that way because it's not fair to the Bengals, but that's how I feel. I think it might have been the Super Bowl, Bill.

It might have been. Those two teams. And that's the thing.. I think it might have been the Super Bowl, Bill. I mean, that's... It might have been. Those two teams. And that's the thing. It's like, the Chiefs... What's the... It's like a cockroach, I guess. But like, you knew at 13 seconds, you knew that wasn't over.

13 seconds. I lived through it with the Pats that one year. So all of a sudden, they're on the 20. You're like, what happened? I thought we won the game. We took the lead with 39 seconds left. You know, the reaction the next day was like, what a crazy thing. I'm like, that's the Chiefs.

And I know everyone wanted to change the overtime rules, but like, you need to protect against that because that's all he needs. And yes, Leslie Frazier called the wrong defense and sure they could have done a squib kick, but like, that's the danger of betting against the Chiefs at any point in these playoff games. Mahomes has lost one game at home. It was to Brady. He's lost one other game. It was a Superbowl in Tampa in Brady's building. Heomes has lost one game at home. It was to Brady. He's lost one other game. It was a Super Bowl in Tampa in Brady's building. He's never lost to a quarterback other than Brady in the playoffs. And we've been betting on him for the last two years. Bill, he's never led us astray. I don't want to jinx him, but Mahomes has never done us wrong. We've been betting on him and he wins just about every time. Even last week, I was leaning toward the Bills and you came in hot with the Chiefs when we talked before the pod,

and I was like, yeah, what am I doing? And that whole game, I never regretted betting on the Chiefs, even when the Bills took the lead, and I was like, all right, I lost, but Josh Allen was just superhuman. I don't regret the bet. Josh Allen was amazing. All right, when we come back,

we're going to talk about all the actual bets, wagers, angles, and then make some million dollar picks. All right. Some gambling rules. Possible new ones to add either for this round or in general. Beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants. I'm not adding that to the full-time manifesto, but if you join a golf or a tennis club, you have the starter membership that might lead to a real one.

I'm just going to give that a starter membership. Under 27, that's what they call it. Don't bet against Pat Mahomes at home. He's starting to veer toward maybe a starter membership for that. Can't you see it? You've got Paul Rudd in the jersey and Eric Stone Street in the jersey, is starting to veer toward maybe a starter membership for that. Can't you see it? You've got like Paul Rudd in the Jersey and Eric Stone Street in the Jersey, and there's Riggle and Koechner and, oh, here we go.

It's the Chiefs. That's what they do. Kyle Brandt calls it the fourth annual Arrowhead Invitational. Like, here we go. It's this whole shtick. We've done a bunch of four. Someone's banging on a drum and they win. And that's what they do.

And you think the torch, the Pats getting past them in the D-forward game was like kind of a torch passing because that was the last piece for the Pats and now you take it. Another possible gambling rule, make sure the team with the home field advantage actually has a home field advantage. The Niners-Rams. You're just like, oh, Rams are home.

It's like, are they? It's the same locker room they got to use all year they get to sleep at their house other than that is it going to be an advantage and then the last one and this one I feel really strongly about as a possible they might waive the starter membership

and put it right into the country club but where have the nobody believes in our QB team it's like the younger brother of the nobody believes in our QB team. It's like the younger brother of the nobody believes in us team. But the team... And we saw it with Eli.

This was a thing with the Giants with Eli. We saw it with the Ravens with Flacco. We saw it with Nick Foles. Saw it with Nick Foles and the Eagles. There's sometimes, if the team likes the QB and he's doing well enough and the QB's taking shit

and it's all like, ah, they're never going to win with that guy. And you see the team rallying around that guy, I think it's a good sign. I love that one. You like that one? I figured you'd like that one. Hey, Robbie Gold hits that field goal

and I don't know if you saw the mic'd up afterwards. He goes over and Jimmy's hugging him. And what Jimmy says is, and I'll say it quietly, I don't know. No, no, I know. Fuck the Packers. What a line. Like, what a line.

That's his initial reaction to Robbie Gold. And No, no. Fuck the Packers. What a line. Like, what a line. That's his initial reaction to Robbie Gold. And I'm like, Fuck the Packers. All right. Who says that? Seems like a great guy. All right. So those are our possible gambling rules.

The lines are Chiefs minus seven. We're taping this. It's a little after 1130 Pacific time. Niners three and a half. I can't believe that hasn't moved to three. Chiefs Niners, if you think that's your Super Bowl, is plus 218. There's some alternate line stuff you can find on FanDuel.

You can take the Chiefs down to minus two and a half. That's minus 290 instead of minus 350. You take the Niners to plus seven and a half. You can put those two together. Chiefs to two and a half, Niners to seven and a half. Even odds on Fandle. You could do Niners to 7.5 and Chiefs money line. That's minus 108 on Fandle. You could do Kelsey will score a 2D, Chiefs will win the game, plus 111.

You could do highest scoring team, Chiefs minus 130 and just say, scoring team, Chiefs minus 130, and just say, hey, the Chiefs are winning and they're going to score more points than anyone in the Niners-Rams game. Chiefs minus 130. You can do passing yard bets, which I would suggest against, but Mahomes is plus 170,

Burroughs is plus 170. Chase and Cupps, same thing for most receiving yards. I think those are stay-aways. There's this other one. San Francisco wins. San Francisco's D scores the last touchdown of the game is plus 58-38. But $10, you could win $583 on that. You could say they're going to close in on a pick six, Stafford fumble, whatever. I thought that was fun. And Otis Smith fumble recovery into the snow. Yes. Couple parlays I really like. And this is all. Do you want to just say that you're leaning toward Rams? I'm full on Niners. My full on Niners trumps your leaning toward Rams, but just make your Rams. I'm worried about this. And here's why I'm worried case right now. I think the Rams are going to win this game. I don't think McVay is going to

let this be seven in a row. And I think they're the healthier team, the fresher team. And I think these conditions actually benefit them more than the Niners or the style of game. And I think Stafford's got his groove right now. So I would take the Rams, but if you want to tell me three and a half, I would roll with the Niners three and would take the Rams. But if you want to tell me three and a half, I would roll with the Niners three and a half as underdogs. If you want to tell me seven and a half, I'm with you. I think this is a field goal game. But I'm going with the Rams.

But Bill, it is your podcast and it is your million dollars we're working with here. It is a field goal game. We agree, which is why I love the three and a half. So a couple parlays on Fandle that I really like. Chiefs down to minus two and a half. Niners to plus 10 and a half. Over Chiefs Bengals, 39 and a half, which is a high line.

It's like minus 900. You'd put the three of those together. That's plus 102. So we need the Chiefs game to have 40 points. Okay. You need the Niners to lose by 10 or less and the Chiefs to lose by 10 or less and the Chiefs to win by a field goal.

And that's basically even money. That's good. I can get on board with that. Same one a little bit here. Chiefs minus 2.5

over to 41.5 and this is a Mahomes bet. Mahomes over 250 passing. Mahomes over 25 rushing. I looked. He runs in every big playoff game. It's not designed. Mahomes over 250 passing. Mahomes over 25 rushing. I looked. He runs in every big playoff game. It's not designed. Yeah, last year he was a little,

but this would be plus 198 if he just hit Mahomes a couple times on pretty low over-unders for him because his passing is like 290. Chiefs to win by a field goal, 42 points. That's plus 198. I like that. And then a same version of that where you have Chiefs money line,

game goes over 43 and a half, Mahomes 250 plus yards. That's even. So you need 44 points, Chiefs to win, Mahomes starts for 251 yards. Sure. Which one out of those three did you like? The second one. I like the middle one. So you liked Chiefs minus two and a half, Mahomes starts for 251 yards. Sure. Which one out of those three did you like? The second one. I like the middle one. So you liked Chiefs minus two and a half,

Mahomes over 250, Mahomes over 25 rushing, over 41 and a half. Yeah, I like that. Two to one odds. Yep. And then for our friends at FanDuel, because they have, FanDuel has these same game parlays

where if we can get it over four to one, it's a $10 risk-free bet. Okay. So our listeners can just pay $10. Sure. If I lose, I just get the $10 back in site credit. It's a flyer. How do they find this? Because all my friends live in New York are obsessed with FanDuel now.

It's all they do all day long. They're betting on the second half of Kings Warriors. How do you find these on FanDuel, Bill? Do you know? You do same game. Okay. You pick four things from the same game and they have to add up to more than four to one. So we have the Mahomes 250 passing. We have the Mahomes 25 yards. We have Chiefs minus two and a half. Take the over to 49 and a half. And Tyreek scores a TD plus 452. Great. I'm in.

Tyreek will score a TD. He dropped a terrible pass in that first one. Yeah, I like that. Okay. And then that's it. That's it. We have to start making some picks. It's almost time.

It's almost time for Kyle to turn the camera on. One question I have for you, because I can look this up right now. Yeah. Do we make a parlay bet on Stafford and Jimmy G to throw at least one interception? Each one throws one. I don't think, I think Jimmy G, I don't think Stafford will.

That's my bold take. I think Stafford's dialed in. This guy's on a mission. Okay. All right, Kyle, turn the camera on. Million dollar picks for week 21 of the longest NFL season of our lives. Somehow we lost 123K last week. We went three and1 and lost money because we went all in on the Titans with the lion's share of our money. Hit everything else. We hit Niners. We hit Rams. Yeah, we had Chiefs.

I missed on a couple of props. So the Titans, I'll tell you this, after the Titans lost, it was like, wow, we're going to get smushed. Didn't get smushed. Lost 133. We're still up 586,000 for the playoffs, up 250K for the year. And now the week that I like the most of any week of this season.

Wow. I really feel strongly that the Chiefs are going to win and that the Niners are either going to win or come freaking close. I love the plus three and a half, but I really love them in a little tease. So what we're going to do on Fando is a little alternate line parlay. We're going to bring the Chiefs down to minus two and a half.

That's minus 290. We're going to bring the Niners up to plus seven and a half, which is plus 200. And that gives us even odds for that bet, which we're going to put 500K on. Let's go, Bill. 500K. Chiefs minus two and a half. Niners plus seven and a half. Then we're going to put 200K on the Chiefs minus seven.

Yep. We're going to put 200K on the Niners plus three and a half. Okay. I mean, how do we not respect ourselves otherwise? How much do you want to put on Kelsey TD Chiefs win plus 111? A lot. I like that. 100K on that.

Now for the listeners, just remember, I picked the Rams to win here. This is you saying spread here. I like the Rams to win though. I don't know by how many, but the Rams, I still like the Rams to win. So don't know this money line Niners stuff. We disagree. Last year when we had our award-winning million-dollar picks run, there were a couple games

we disagreed on. I think you're with the Rams like I am with the Pats. We took the Pats against the Bills in week one, even though we both loved the Bills. And I was just like, I'm trying to talk myself into the Pats. It was just wrong. We should have bet like a dollar on that. I think of the Rams, I don't know. I think you're

sweet on the Rams, just in general. Fair. I think it's a little like me with the Pats. Highest scoring team, Chiefs, minus 130. That means of the weekend, of the four teams, the Chiefs score the most points. Do you like that better or do we have too much Chiefs money already?

No, I like that. I feel like if we're going in on the Chiefs, let's go in on the Chiefs. And I feel like this one, yes, they're going to score points on that defense. Okay. So we're going to put 100K on that. We are going to put 100K in the following parlay. Chiefs minus two and a half. Mahomes over 250 passing.

Mahomes over 25 rushing. The Chiefs-Bengals game will go over 41 and a half. That is plus 198. We're putting 100 on that. And then we are doing, just for the listeners, we're going to do a little same game parlay, which is a nice little deal

on FanDuel. You have to get it over four to one and then you get basically a risk-free bet. Mahomes, 250 plus yards. Mahomes,

25 plus. Chiefs, minus two and a half. Over 49 and a half. Tyreek Hill will score a touchdown plus 452 on FanDuel.

So we'll put a token 10K on that. Yeah, we don't know. Tyreek might do it in the punt game. We don't know. A little 10K on that. And then last but not least, putting 10K on San Francisco will win. And their defense will score the last touchdown of the game.

It is plus 58-38. Who scores it, Bill? You call it out. Who scores it? Boy, this would be a great moment if this happened. Nailed it. Is it Jimmy Ward? Is it Al Shazier?

Is it Fred Warner? It feels Fred Warner-y to me. It's a little Fred Warner-ish. Yeah, so we'll put 10K on that. And then I think we have everything. Chiefs and the Niners, which you don't totally agree with. It's fine.

The thing people don't understand is you're my conciliary. That's it. I'm Robert Duvall. I'm your Tom Hagen. I just give you advice, but you do what you got to do. I never look at you like Michael did in Godfather 2 and just say,

you're out, Tom. Always get your counsel, Tom. What do you think we should do? We got Battaglia coming at me. Who else was in that? Tattaglia? Barzini? Barzini. I get all the Italian names. Yeah. Salazzo. He's sending me Luca Brasi's

vest wrapped with fish. Yeah, you're always there. That is the million dollar picks for what should be an awesome round three. And, by the way,

if the Niners end up winning. You know what? 17 to 1? What'd you have? What'd you have them there? To win the whole thing or just to win the NFC?

I forgot to mention this. I've had the Niners 17-1 to win the NFC. Maybe you're the biased one. Maybe I'm the objective one right now. Which is why we're going to do one more million dollar pick just for fun. Chiefs. Chiefs Niners just to win 2-1. We'll put 50K on that.

Just out of respect to both of those teams. I think those are the two best teams in the NFL. I know you disagree. Can I jump in that in September 5th, you did an amazing that has since been done into a video, a Patriots Buccaneers Super Bowl prediction. Really went sideways. It did. But in that same video, I say, I think it's going to be the Rams and the Chiefs. I know I'm going to double down on my preseason prediction. The Rams will win this game, and it's because I picked them to win it.

No reasons to do with the football teams themselves. You know what? I'm going to recant my 50K Chiefs-Niners bet, and we'll go personal bet. Chiefs-Niners versus Chiefs-Rams next dinner. Dinner next week when I'm in LA for the Super Bowl. Next dinner. Yeah, we'll do it. That'll be a dinner.

Okay. Peter Schrager we can see you on Good Morning Football see you on Fox and we'll see you on this pod I guess in two weeks for the Super Bowl million dollar picks

I cannot wait Bill thank you 21 weeks let's keep it going alright that's it for the podcast thanks to Brian Windhorst thanks to Peter Schrager

thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. As always, thanks to Dylan Berkey and Steve Cerruti. And I will see you on this feed Sunday night right after two awesome, awesome playoff games. Can't wait. Enjoy the weekend. Stay safe. I don't have I don't have

I don't have