The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Celtics Scandal, the Suns Sale, the Sleeper Niners, and Week 3 Million-Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager and Benjamin Solak

Episode Date: September 22, 2022

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons shares his thoughts on the developing story on Celtics head coach Ime Udoka, as well as Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver putting the team up for sale (1:40). Then, Bill is joined by NFL Network’s Peter Schrager to discuss the positive feelings surrounding New York football, the 49ers' future with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, the wild-card Cardinals, and more (28:00), before discussing where certain NFL teams fall on the Panic Meter for Week 3, including the Broncos, Steelers, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Buccaneers, Vikings, and more (46:32). Next, Bill is joined by The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak to discuss some matchups and kick around some bets for Week 3, including Ravens-Patriots, Bills-Dolphins, Chiefs-Colts, Raiders-Titans, Jaguars-Chargers, and more (1:12:57). Finally, Bill makes the Million-Dollar Picks for Week 3 (1:38:38). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager and Benjamin Solak Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit RG-help.com. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Check out Off the Pike with Brian Barrett. He is going to be covering this Eme Adoka story

on the Celtics. I'm going to talk about it in a second on this podcast, but he's going to be covering that over the next few days as that keeps going. He also had Alex Gore on the podcast this week.

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we're going to talk about the NBA stuff at the top. What's happening with the Celtics? What's happening with the Suns? Then Peter Schrager's going to come on and we're going to bat around some possible million dollar picks. Followed by Ben Solak. And that's the pod. I wish I wasn't taping the top of the podcast here. It's Thursday afternoon, mid-afternoon Pacific time.

I wanted to wait as long as possible to weigh in on the Imei Doka story because it was a developing story. Could not suss out what was true and what wasn't true. There was a rumor late morning that he might actually just resign and that this was going to end. So I really wanted to wait. Chris Haynes, our friend, just reported that he's not going to resign, that he is going to await sanctions from the team for this. I guess this is a scandal. He had a consensual affair with somebody that worked for the team, and we don't know all the dynamics of it yet, but we do know that this led to him, according to Adrian Wojnarowski, potentially being suspended for this

season, which would be one of the most memorable, bizarre, and honestly saddest suspensions that we've had in NBA history. You think about Hudoka in June. He's on the top of the world. He's got a unanimous approval rating with the city, with the players, with the organization, with the league. He's just in an amazing situation. He screwed it up and he screwed it up for a reason that we've seen with people in power over and over again, where they just can't help themselves. And you would have thought over the last five years, especially as we all, I mean, we, everybody has just gotten a lot better and a lot smarter about how to behave,

especially if you're in a position of power, trying to learn from mistakes of previous generations and some terrible people. And it's just surprising that he would get in a situation like that and that he would risk the incredible position that he was in and continues to be in.

My thought when I heard the story, especially as it was unfolding, was that he was going to have to resign. I couldn't see a roadmap to somebody being suspended for up to a year and then just coming back and coaching. We saw it with Alex Gore with the Red Sox. That was a different scenario, obviously. He got suspended because of his role with the Houston Astros, the cheating scandal that they had. He had to go away for a year. He came back. It was a little bit weird at first, but ultimately, you know, it was a mistake. I think people moved on and I think everybody forgot about it by mid April. This is going to be a little bit tougher to forget and to move on from, especially because I don't know, you're the coach of the team. You're the leader,

you're the face of the organization. And that's, you know, one of the things that was at stake here, he had a chance to be the face of this organization. It was already kind of happening. You know, you go back to when I was a kid, it was Red Auerbach. And then they tried to make it Rick Pitino. That didn't really fly. And then it was a combo of Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge and the owner, Rick Grossbach, and eventually Brad Stevens, I think became a face to a large degree of just, I'm talking non-players. And then it really felt like it was E-May. And he was having such a dramatic impact with the young players, with professionalism, kind of how harsh he was in a good way with those guys. And just the way he carried himself. I really developed a ton of respect and admiration

for him as the season went along. And he was important, not just to that team getting over the hump, but he was important to the city. He was a black head coach, a proud, awesome character guy in a city that has certainly had a checkered history over the years dating back to the Russell era that I thought that piece was sorely needed. He really embraced it. There was something different about him. He kept hearing the words special, special, special, and he was great at his job. And I think everyone makes mistakes. I'm probably more forgiving than others with stuff like this because I do, especially if he can come out and apologize and serve the time and, and, and stuff like that and come back and try to rebuild his life and whatever happened to him and his family, like everybody

should have a chance to do that. Um, I just wonder, can you, can you coach a team after that? Can you hold that level of responsibility, not just with your players, but with everybody in the organization? We haven't really been in this situation before. So you think where he was in June to where he is now, it's really a stunning fall. That's the only word I can think of. This is a fall of somebody who was in an amazing position just a few months ago. So that's one thing. There was the sordid side of social media, which is continuing to happen, that this was just the worst we have to offer. The message board era, the Twitter era, just people

doing sleuthing, people posting pictures of employees and playing the guessing game and the rumor mills going around. And it was really awful. And there was a couple of people that I'm sure, I really hope they weren't searching for their names last night. But you think we're getting better with this stuff. And then you see something like how the last 24 hours played out.

And we're clearly, people going on the masthead trying to guess like, what are we doing? So that part of the story was super ugly. I don't think the Celtics helped it that much because you have the Woj tweet initially where they say something happened and he's going to get suspended. And your mind quickly goes to, well, it's either involves sex or gambling or who knows, but you figure it's going to be bad when he wouldn't even say what happened. And then Sham Sarani came in probably an hour later and said that, no, no, this is a consensual relationship

with somebody who worked for the team. So your head goes from the worst possible places to the place of, ugh, all right. And then it's human nature to think, all right, I wonder who it was. But man, we went to 17 levels of awful last night and today, and that was awful. And then from a Celtics standpoint, which you have to talk about this off season that they had, which I know a lot of people probably documented today, including off the pike with Brian Barrett, but they go from, they're up 2-1 in the finals. They're on top of the world.

They blow the finals. The KD trade rumors happen almost immediately. Jalen Brown gets thrown in there. The organization never really comes out and says, there's no way we're trading Jalen Brown. So that was lingering over the season. You had Will Hardy, the top assistant for Udoka. He leaves. He gets poached by Danny Ainge, the old GM, which they never kind of slammed the door on Danny. They never got draft pick compensation for him, and they left the door open for stuff like that

where he has a lot of connections in Boston, and if somebody's good, he's going to take them. So Will Hardy would have been the one coaching this team for as long as Udoka's out, and now he's in Utah. So there's a bunch of possible candidates Will Hardy would have been the one coaching this team for as long as Zadok is out. Now he's in Utah. There's a bunch of possible candidates on the coaching staff. None of them are as good as Will Hardy.

I'll tell you that much. You have Danilo Gowinari. They sign. They also trade for Malcolm Brogdon. Everyone's excited. Gallo tears his ACL. He's out for the year. You have Robert Williams, who looks like his knee surgery that he had last year, it looks like they had to redo that. So now he's going to miss the start

of the season. Now they don't have a head coach. And I think if you were looking where the Celtics were in June, they were at least a top three, you would want that team's future team in the league. Every arrow's pointing up. You get to build around Tatum and Brown and all these guys under great contracts. They still have assets to trade that, but organization's gonna spend money. They've gotten all this finals and playoff experience. Like everything is pointing up, every arrow.

And now it's looking a lot shakier. I mean, they were the favorites, I think, at one point to win the title, or at least the East on FanDuel. And now, you know, I'm sure everybody's going to think, well, Milwaukee, maybe Philly, maybe Brooklyn can get it together. There's turmoil that you just never could have guessed where in June, it's good vibes everywhere. And even they lose. And it was one of those kind of losses where you think, all right, well, at least there were some positives. Like these guys got all this experience. They know they can play with these guys, et cetera, et cetera. And the last piece

of this, which is something I've been writing about and talking about for a long time, is the whole concept of windows. And I remember I wrote about this with the James Harden trade 10 years ago, actually, almost to the day. NBA teams get in the habit sometimes of thinking the window is going to last forever, that people are going to stay healthy, that nothing weird is going to happen, that nobody's going to become unhappy. And I always think the default team, I always think of this was the 86 Rockets with Samson and Olajuwon, where they just destroy the Lakers in the Western Finals. The last four games, they just ran roughshod and it felt like the league had shifted

and the Showtime Lakers were dead and we were moving toward Hakeem and Ralph and now it was a Twin Towers era and you had to have Twin Towers to battle Houston. The Celtics had McHale and Parrish and Walton and it was like, this is the future of the league. You have to be big. And, you know, Samson gets hurt.

Houston has a cocaine scandal and it's over immediately. You know, and over and over again, we've seen that teams that have these windows that they think are going to last for a long time. OKC is one of the great examples. You know, you have Durant, you have Westbrook, you have Harden, you have Serge Ibaka. It just seems like, oh my God, this team, how many titles are they going to win? Look at Miami with a not one, not two, not three. And then within four years, LeBron's gone. So you just never know. And I remember saying this to, I think it was Rosillo,

we were talking about on a podcast when it seemed improbable that the Celtics could win a title last year. And then all of a sudden it's like, holy shit, they're in the finals. Oh my God, they're up 2-1 against the Warriors. They might actually win the title. It's kind of ahead of schedule, but let's embrace this. And I remember saying to Rosillo, I feel like they have to grab this window. It's weird to say that a team that is built around young players and has such a young core has a window, but you just never know in the NBA. And they ended up not getting it done. And the natural reaction is to think, oh, well, we got plenty of years with these guys and Tatum. And two years from now is when Tatum's

going to peak as a player and all this stuff. But this is what happens. This is what happens in the league. You just never know. And I think for the Celtics, these last three to four months here have qualified under the, you just never know. You never know what's going to happen. You never know when you have your window to win a title. You never know when you have your window to be great. It's been compromised today with the Adoka story. It's an ugly story. It's a sad story. And there's just no positives out of this. So those are all my thoughts on the Celtics situation. And then the other thing I want to talk about was the Suns. So Adam Silver takes a ton of crap last week for suspending Robert

Sarver for a year and for handling it the way he did. And I think there was an erroneous way that people were talking about that story. You can't make somebody sell an NBA franchise. I know we love to think in this world that should work more perfectly than it does for all these different reasons that if you have an owner that clearly needs to go, we can just make them go. You can't. Whether it's an NFL owner, an NBA owner, it's a whole different game to get somebody to leave. When it happened with Donald Sterling and the Clippers in 2014, revisionist history of that is that they made him sell. They didn't make him do anything. They really didn't. If he didn't want to sell, he didn't have to sell. What happened was you had the city and you had his ex-wife and you had a bunch of people

in his life pushing him to get out. And you had big money offers from not just Steve Ballmer, but Rick Caruso, who's a billionaire out here who's running for mayor coincidentally right now. And I think there was one other one, but the money was at, you know, one six, one seven, Ballmer goes to one eight and the ex-wife was pushing him to do it.

They're probably, who knows, maybe telling him, you know, if you don't do this, some other stuff might come out. Who knows? The ex-wife, Shelly Sterling, ended up with courtside seats out of the deal. And I think that's an important piece of this. She was really,

really pushing him to sell and she wanted to get something out of it. And she did. And they got him to sell, but he didn't have to. And I think that's a really important piece with this Suns thing. Adam Silver had to basically, he's playing 3D chess. He had to take the hits last week for a couple of days, make it seem like, oh my God, why Adam is so light on this. And then the players come out. Well, if you think this wasn't a whole bunch of people orchestrated this, including like when LeBron James and Chris Paul come out against Sarver. If you don't think that that wasn't coordinated with the league, I have a leg to pull for you. Everybody wanted the same end game. They wanted this guy to sell. So how do you do that? You have the most visible players in the league come at him. You have sponsors pull out.

You have other owners lobbying him like, Hey, you know, this is, you don't want to go out this way, man. And in the rich guy circles, they had, I think a labor meeting this week. And, you know, in the rich guy circles, they, they can approach that a little differently and they could be like, Hey, you know, you can make a lot of money. Just get out. What do you want to be a punching bag for? And spin it a certain way. What I heard was there was one last piece, a card that the league was going to play where MJ was going to be the last piece

to come out and implore Sarver to sell. And that would have been a death blow for him and hugely embarrassing for a bunch of different reasons. That never had to happen, but it was going to happen. And I think once Sarver knew that Jordan was looming after LeBron, after Chris Paul, after some of the other people, the minority owner, then that was it. So here's why this matters. Maybe this doesn't matter, but I find this stuff hugely interesting. The NBA prices,

the Brooklyn Nets went for like 2.35. The arena was thrown in, it was around 3.4. That was in 2019. The Rockets went for 2.2 in 2017. The Jazz went for 2.0 in 2020. The Timberwolves went for 1.5 in 2021. And people feel like that was super low. And a lot of that had to do with the relationship

with Glenn Taylor. And he just liked A-Rod. But everyone feels like that number should have been higher. I think the floor for an NBA team right now is 2 million bucks. We have the media rights deal coming. That's going to be massive. You have expansion money coming from Seattle and Vegas. None of these teams, none of the prices have

gone down. Golden State paid 450 in 2010. That might be 12-time multiple at this point. There's only eight truly incredible NBA franchises to own. And I'm going to give you the list. A couple of them are obvious, the Lakers, the Knicks, the Warriors, the Bulls, the Celtics, the Mavericks. I would throw in the Heat because of the organization they built, the location, the fact that they've always been able to get good players, and the fact that there's just a ton of money in South Beach. That's seven. And then the Suns are the eighth. Now, what's interesting about that? The Suns are the only one that's going to be available out of those eight. So you're talking, you think about, I wrote about this once in 2014. You think about owning an NBA team, and this is why my case for

the Clippers to go for, I think I was predicting 1.8. It actually went higher than everyone thought I was crazy. You have an island and there's 30 houses on the island and all the rich people want to be on that island. And then there's eight houses that are way better than every other house on the island. The Suns are one of those eight houses. And by the way, the Clippers aren't one of the eight houses and neither are the Nets because they're the second tier teams in those cities. Why are the Suns one of the eight teams? Well, you're in Arizona. You own your own arena. Phoenix is a rich guy mecca.

People retire there. There's better state tax stuff there. Incredible fans. You have a whole history. You got Devin Booker in place. But the big thing is it's an hour from LA and it's an hour and a half from the Bay Area. So you can pull in every rich guy from those two spots and they could just fly in and be the owner of the team. So you have

that. Here's the other thing. There's an ego tax when you buy these teams. And I would call this the Joe Lacob corollary. I've talked about this before, but I'll do it again. Joe Lacob buys the Warriors. Nobody knows who the fuck he is. He's a minority owner in the Celtics. He's just one of many rich people in the world. Nobody knows who he is.

Buys the Warriors. Curry's career takes off. All of a sudden, the Warriors become a thing. Guess who becomes one of the coolest people in the Bay Area? Joe Lacob. Guess who's rubbing shoulders with Eddie Q and the CEO of Reddit and the CEO of Salesforce.

Name a super rich person in the city with the most rich people and Lacob is kind of, in some ways, the king of that whole world and remains the king. And now everyone knowsacob is kind of, in some ways, the king of that whole world and remains the king. And now everyone knows who he is and he can walk around, he can get a phone call from anybody, he can get a meeting from anybody. He's pulling the strings in a lot of different ways because he bought that stake. So because of that, and because all of these other rich people see what's going on with that, when a team becomes available,

they're like, this is great, right? I already have enough money. I have houses. I have boats. I have the money to do whatever I want. What I don't have is people telling me how cool I am because what do they care? I'm just another rich guy. So they look at a team like the Suns and it's like, I'm the king of Arizona if I buy that team. I'm sitting courtside. They're mentioning me on TV. Now everyone in my life is like, hey, that guy. So you have to have a 30% ego tax for any of these other teams. So I'm throwing in the ego tax. I am throwing in the fact that this is one of the eight franchises you'd want. And I'm throwing in the proximity to LA and the Bay Area too, but really LA. That opens the door wide for all of these different types of people to buy it. Here's the other thing. We know Sarver owns between 30 to 35%. So if you're doing this in the right way, you're just buying his controlling

stake and you're evaluating that at whatever, you're evaluating the team as a whole. And then it's a 35% stake of that 30% whatever Sarver owns. And that's what you pay Sarver. Some of these franchises have what's called like, I think it's called a tag or a drag where Sarver can make the other minority owner sell if he wants, or he can just say, you know what? I'll take my 35% and leave. I think that's what people think is going to happen here. So the thing to watch with the NBA

is this evaluation is going to go way higher than people think. And remember, I told you this with the Clippers eight years ago, and I'm telling you now, the Suns are going to be evaluated over $4 million. Mark my words. I am telling you, you can throw it in my face if I'm wrong. I am not going to be wrong. I think it could get close to five. I think it will be in the four, five to five range, which means if somebody is buying the Robert Sarver controlling stake, then they have to cut them a check for one and a half million.

Let's say it's evaluated at four or five and he owns 33% of the team. Sarver gets one and a half billion. Here's my controlling stake. All that matters is the controlling stake. That means you're the guy. Like Lacob doesn't own a hundred percent of the Warriors. He's got a ton of investors. That son's evaluation will be four or five or higher. I'll say four or five to be safe, but I honestly would not be surprised if it was five. And once that happens, all hell is going to break loose in the NBA. And you're going to have a bunch of owners looking around going, wait a second, I can get that. And then it becomes a question of what is this worth to me? Let's say if you're in your mid 60s or your late 60s

and you're seeing a little bit of an end game, you want to wind down, you don't want to, you don't feel like you're devoting as much as you used to owning the team. Like somebody like Cuban, he's owned the Mavs for, I don't know, since 2000.

He's in his 60s now and I don't think he'll sell, but he'll wonder about it. If he's like, shit, these things are going for more than $4 billion now. So you have that. You have Charlotte that's going to become available, which you would have tied them to something close to the Minnesota price, but now who knows. And then you have the expansion money. And if it's Vegas and Seattle, which is going to be, I've told you in January, I'm going to keep telling you, those are the two expansion teams. And I had heard initially it was going to be six and a half to 7 billion combined for those two teams. And then they wouldn't be able to participate in the media rights for a

couple of years. If this Suns thing goes the way I think think and I know it's going to go, now the price for those expansion teams is $4 billion and up. And that means we're even more likely to have expansion. We have this huge meteorite still coming. We have franchises skyrocketing. And you have a lot of people just kind of kicking the tires, wondering, how do I get in? How do I get one of these 30 houses on the island? So watch the sun's thing because the more money that pours into the ownership side

and the more money that pours in from a media right side, the more money that's going to go to the players, the money thing in the NBA is going to actually become, I don't even know how it's going to work. We're going to have guys making $80 million a year. We're going to have owners selling their teams for 4 billion. It just feels like things are going haywire. And I'm fascinated to see how it plays out. But my prediction, I'm going on the record, the Suns, I'm going on the record, the Suns,

I'm going to say 4-7. That's what Sarver's stake will be evaluated at. Now, the other thing with this, so I heard Bob Iger was being rumored as buying the Suns. Bob Iger doesn't have the money to buy the Suns. Even if you put together the greatest group possible, if that's Sarver's, the only real chance he has, if he's just trying to buy the Suns. Even if he put together the greatest group possible, if that's Sarver, the only real chance he has if he's just trying to buy the Sarver stake and he's doing it with the whole conglomerate. So let's say the Sarver stake costs one six. Bob Acker doesn't have 1.6 billion. He could maybe put together a group that where he puts in, I don't know, 200, 250, and then has the controlling interest of it that everybody, he's got 20 other people just for that controlling interest. But now you have a board of directors

and the sons that has like 50 people involved. It's way more likely. It's just one person trying to buy out Sarver's stake who just has the money and can write the check. Right? Like there, I'll give you an example. There's's somebody his name is Matt Ishbia he used to play for Tom Izzo and and he's a rich guy right he made all of his money he's based in Michigan he's a mortgage lender um and he's got a lot of money and he played basketball that's somebody that could just write a check for this Arver thing, right? That's somebody that could write a check for another team.

There's a lot of Matt Ishbia type guys out there right now. And I think that's, I think the NBA knows it. I think that's why they've waited on the expansion. I think that's why Adam played this Phoenix Suns thing so carefully because he had to land the plane on this in a way that they got Sarver out of the league, which was the most important thing. And they're able to put the right person in there while also blowing up the value of the franchise. Because Glenn Taylor, that wasn't great for the league that they only sold for one five. They want the big price. And again, the franchises are the Lakers, the Knicks,

the Warriors, the Bulls, Celtics, Mavs, Heat, Suns. There's only eight that are like the prime houses on the island. And this might be the last time for like 10 years, one of the houses become available. So my final prediction, I'm including in the building and everything that comes with the Suns, I'm going to say 4.4 billion. I'll go slightly conservative, 4.4 billion for the Suns. That is my prediction. I'm on the record. We'll be back with Peter Schrager right after this. Football season is underway. So now is the perfect time to download Fando America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers getting no sweat, first bet up to $1,000. Free bets back. If your first bet doesn't win, sign up with promo code BS. We're going to do a million dollar picks later today. I will just tell you, Bill's Chiefs as a parlay is going to

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Refund issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that

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Just search Movember. All right. Peter Schrager is here from the NFL Network and from Fox. He's here every week. He is in New York where we are planning a Subway World Series. And what is the Subway Super Bowl called? What do we call that? I guess the Waste Management Bowl. That's right. And it's perfect the Waste Management Bowl. That's right. And it's perfect. Waste Management is usually in Arizona. The golf tournament the same weekend. That's perfect, dude.

That is perfect. It is crazy. The Jets win in this miraculous fashion based on this wild Browns meltdown. I've watched the game back. It was on NFL Network. The craziest visual of the Browns like mother Stefanski's coaching. And there are children with credentials behind him ready to like celebrate on the field while this meltdown is going on.

I think it's Haslam's grandkids. They're all wearing Browns jerseys and Stefanski is having like the greatest coaching meltdown you've ever seen on the sideline, like watching it like in front of him, like a train wreck. And there's just kids, kids there and like Watson and, and,

uh, like Amari Cooper jersey is like smiling. Like, can we go on the field yet? No, no, you can't go on the field right now. That aside, I work in lower Manhattan. It's all like the Wall Street guys, Jamie Diamond and DJ Solomon, the DJ from Goldman Sachs, who's now the CEO. They have those guys in now five days a week. So it's a lot of activity in lower Manhattan. And you'd think the Jets and Giants are headed to the Super Bowl based on just three wins in the first two weeks. Jets fans are delusional. They're all very excited about the two rookies, obviously. But the Giants fans are convinced that not only is Dable the man,

but they got something this year. Forget the rebuild. We're good this year, which I got to appreciate. It's been so long since there's been any positivity in the city for both those football teams. Yeah. I mean, the Jets, that was the craziest win anyone's had in 20 years. It's the all-time, we had no business stealing this game, game. The good thing for them is how good Garrett Wilson looked in that game. I mean, if I'm a Jets fan, I'm like, wow, we might have a guy, like a real, like legitimate franchise receiver. The Giants, I think, you know, the NFC East is a little more wide open. I'm not going to overreact too much to that Philly, Minnesota game. They, the coach it's Sal and I talked about this on Sunday.

It really seems like they hit the jackpot with the coach. And I think foundationally, I would probably be a little more excited if I was a Giants fan. There's a roadmap to the playoffs. You got Barkley going again, even though he can leave as a free agent. But in general, it just feels like both teams, at least the arrow is, I don't know if it's pointing up, but at least it's not pointing straight down for the first time since when? Five years? Yeah. Look, the Giants, they went on the boat when they played Green Bay the week beforehand. That was in 2016. McAdoo was the the coach that's the last time either team's been to the playoffs last time either team's been relevant you know and Dayball it's funny

it's like he's really good with the guys like they really like him and there's a positivity in the building and you saw him dancing after week one and everyone was like oh that's cool but like that's real he's also really good with the fans like little things like shows up the first press conference and he's in really good with the fans like little things like shows up the first press conference

and he's in a giant like truck like a guy's guy truck and it's so like whatever but the videos catch that and they're like all right we like that he's you know giants like lunch pail guy then he goes to like every rangers playoff game new york rangers and they were winning all these games it's so smart to buy into the other was doingick was doing that with the Celtics for a long time. It's very smart. And it's not X's and O's stuff, but it's all that stuff. And then Wink Martindale, the defensive coordinator is a wild man, sends seven blitzers every time. They don't even play linebackers. It's crazy watching the Giants defense. It's like four defensive linemen and then they go seven defensive backs and Julian Love is sacking. But here's the thing I did this week.

And this might be a bridge too far for me as a long time resident and as a giants fan growing up, every giant season ticket holder got an email this week from Brian Dayball, which is like you're written by whoever they all get. We need you to show up and show out Monday night and we're doing a white out. So we're all white, white and white.

And I'm like, all right, this ain't the Phoenix coyotes, you know, and like an opening round Western conference. But this isn't that. I remember when the Giants. That's embarrassing. That didn't have mascots, didn't have cheerleaders and like wouldn't have a t-shirt can. You're not the Oklahoma City Thunder. Well, on FanDuel right now, the Giants are plus 112 to make the playoffs. The Jets are plus 690. Not crazy. Yeah.

I mean, the plus 112, we're going to have to get to seven NFC playoff teams somehow. I don't know how we're going to get there, but it's going to have to happen. Minnesota took a huge hit. Let's talk NFC really fast. San Francisco, who loses Lance on Sunday and Garoppolo comes in. And I said this Sunday, in my opinion, makes them more of a Super Bowl favorite. I don't know who's winning the NFC. I do think it's going to take 10 weeks to shake out. But right now, I'm fando is Tampa Bay plus 310.

Philly 5-1. They're now second with Green Bay at 5-1. Rams plus 650. I think both of us are pretty down on what we've seen so far with them. Then San Fran's plus 850. Minnesota plus 950. And then it drops to New Orleans 17-1, Arizona 21-1, Dallas 24-1. San Francisco plus 850, 17-1 to win the Super Bowl with a team that really could have made the Super Bowl last year that brought a lot of people back. Gone to my head, I think that's who I would pick.

I don't know if I would bet on any of those, but it seems like that's the best value, right? It's the best value. I would think the Packers actually have good value there too, not being the number one team. I feel like Green Bay kind of righted some wrongs and they're going to get guys back, especially we're hoping Bakhtiari finally plays.

And you feel like the receivers will get better as the year goes long. Christian Watson will get better, the whole thing. It's funny because Watkins had 93 receiving yards. Like, all right, they found the number one. Watson and the other rookie Dobbs are actually one and two in targets right now. Like, so it's not like Rod.

So imagine when they suddenly get comfortable, like that's only going to increase. And I think you saw what we expected as far as the blueprint for that offense goes against Chicago, like that's only going to increase. And I think you saw what we expected as far as the blueprint for that offense goes against Chicago, where it's, it's okay to give Aaron Jones 18 touches. It's all right to get,

you know, AJ Dillon, 18 carries. We'll figure this out. Um, I'm curious to see how that relationship goes with him and those receivers as the season goes on, but San Francisco grumpy.

And there's a couple of shots left. Sure. I wasn't the front seven against the bears worried me a little bit, but again, super early. All right. San Francisco, empty your notebook. What do you got? Fascinating week in San Francisco because give their local media credit. They will take on Kyle Shanahan.

Whereas a lot of us in the national media, I mean, I include it. Like we're looking at the score. We're like, all right, well, Shanahan's a genius. They will take him to task. And he was very, very taken aback on Sunday night when he was asked, why are you running Trey Lance as often as you were running him? And do you think you are responsible for putting him in harm's way? And Shanahan was taken aback. He's like, do you watch any other teams? Do you watch what Buffalo does? Do you watch what the Eagles do? This is a running quarterback. It's what it is. That said, the amount that he has had Trey Lance running in the first two years of his career is eye-popping. I think the stat that was given by Ray Rotto on the radio, I was listening to a clip. I think the stat was in 13 years as a pro, Michael Vick ran the ball 13 times or more, just four times. And in the first three starts of his career,

Trey Lance already had two and was on pace for 16 carries in that game. That was a wild opening quarter against the Seahawks. If you were watching that game, it was Trey Lance design run this, Trey Lance design run that. And the critique is not that they were running Trey Lance. It is how often he was running Trey Lance. And the end result is he snaps his ankle. We still don't know.

Now entering week three, and it's going to be the third year of Trey Lance's career. We still don't know if Trey Lance is any good. We still don't know if this vision of what Shanahan's offense was going to be, was ever going to take. Because he's injured and he's out for the year. And now it's back to Jimmy. I think that the Niners are better today than they were a week ago with Trey Lance. But I think the ceiling was so high with Trey and the hope was that they were going to start getting

into a flow and Trey would get comfortable and they could do some of that run stuff. But it's all for not now. It's Jimmy's team. It might have should have been all along. I think in the short term, they're better, but I don't know if Jimmy gets them over the top like Trey Lance might've been able to. Trey Lance, not Josh Allen's size. Just want to get that out there. Josh Allen, man child. You could do whatever you want with Josh Allen on

third and three because he's going to at least do a draw against 90% of the defensive players in the league. Trey Lance is not as big of a guy. I watched a good chunk of those first two games. I don't really think they knew what to do with Trey. And I think that was why they were trying to get into his comfort zone and get him going, almost like a basketball player trying to get easy shots off

picks because they were worried about some of the other stuff. I was surprised the NFC West odds on FanDuel, LA is plus 125 and San Francisco is plus 165. And I think part of that has to do with they have a game at Denver this week, Denver, who we'll talk about in one second. Maybe that's part of it. But if you just told me, who do you think should be favored to win the NFC West? I would have said from what we've seen of the Rams, the Niners, like the Rams, their ability not to be able to finish off games and how much they're relying on cup already. And Stafford's looked old. I don't, he hasn't looked like, oh my God, this is Dan Marino's last year, anything like that. But I just don't think he's the same guy that we watched last year. And last year he was a little iffy too. He would have like two bad throws a game.

The running game is really tough. They cannot run the ball. There is no running game. They cannot protect the leads. All of their running backs would be third, fourth string running backs, I think, on other teams. I don't know. What happened to Cam Akers?

What happened? All right. So week one was a coach's decision based on the offseason and who was playing. But that means something though. It means that he wasn't playing like the number one running back. I was preparing like the number one running back. So, okay. The injury is coming off the Achilles from last year, but he played in the playoffs and then they lost Karen Williams, who was not a big fantasy name, but like was going

to be, they had big plans for Karen Williams, who was a rookie at a Notre Dame. He can catch out of the backfield. It was awesome. They put him on special teams in the first game, and within five minutes, his ankles is sprained. He's out six to eight weeks, and it's like, okay, now you turn to Cam Akers. We need you to be you again. He was getting more looks in week two. McVay loves him. I think this was one of those deals where like, hey, I've got to show you a lesson a little bit week one, and now you have to rely on them and let's see how he performs. It's not good. It's not good. And you don't have the same left tackle from last year. And I, I just think this is, I want to be able to run the ball and protect the lead. Stafford can't run the ball. So now it's just cup, cup, cup, cup, cup, who's carried this workload that is honestly insane for a receiver.

At some point he played 20 games last year, 21 games last year, and you're doing the same thing this year. I just think they're pushing it. I they're, they're the car that is, you know, the RPMs are at six with how they're doing that offense. And they really could have lost that Atlanta game. They probably should have. That Jalen Ramsey mossing him on the pick, the receiver, if he jumps a second higher, I feel like he would have caught that. Atlanta was dominating that second half to the point where it was like, I don't know if the Rams can get a first down here. And fortunately their defense bailed them out. But special teams has been atrocious for the Rams. Their defense has not

been locked down by any means. They held the Falcons, obviously, to three points in the first half. But then, just like it happened in the first week, second half, it was like, take whatever you want. So there are legitimate concerns. Two second-half swoons from them. No good. Both at home. Both were at home.

Also, Atlanta, I think, is a little friskier than people realize. That was one of the games we were talking about for million-dollar picks coming up later, but Atlanta minus one in Seattle. Seattle played kind of a surprise, decent first half in that Denver game. Denver shoots themselves in the foot a thousand different ways,

somehow blows that game. And then in week two, Seattle looked awful. I mean, they should have been shut out. They got a special teams touchdown. They had nothing going offensively. We're, they should have been shut out. They got a special teams touchdown. They had nothing going offensively. What do you think? Two weeks away from DK Metcalf getting mad about not getting the ball or something?

We might be there already. I thought that line was going to be Atlanta minus three. It's Atlanta minus one. Here's what worries you if you're a Seahawks fan. You get the first win, which is great, and you'll take it, and it's in your pocket, and we beat Russ and all that. They were supposed to be,

hey, we shot Penny, Kenneth Walker. They're 32nd in the league in rushing. They have no success on the ground. And if that's the case,

you're asking Geno Smith to lead you through the air and that's just not what they're built to do. So, obviously, the young offensive tackles, you've got two running backs

that are supposed to be the strength of the team. They haven't had any success this whole season with that. So, I think Atlanta, though they're 0-2. And Jamal Adams goes out for Seattle too. Adams is out.

Devin Taylor. So DVOA, it's super early. Two games. I don't love the DVOA sample size until we get around week five, week six. Seattle's 26th in DVOA. You know what's interesting? The Rams are 29th. Really? The last four teams are

Rams 29th, Chicago 30th, Indy 31, and Tennessee 32. I would have predicted the last two because I think those are the two worst teams I watched. Most disappointing teams for sure. Yeah. But also just not good teams. The Rams being 29th was surprising. Arizona was 28th and Seattle was 26th. And you have the Niners all the way up at 10th, but the NFC West might be not great. And the other thing with the Rams, because they're so top heavy, it's two injuries. And all of a sudden that's a four and 13 team because they're so relying on those, you know, seven guys that they have. And they're playing a Superbowl champion schedule. So it's the top teams in each division. It's, you know, they've already gotten two home games out of the

way. So you only have that many games. Night games. It's a huge game for the other team. Yeah. Yeah. It's a lot. It's a lot. And that's what we said before the season. I did not pick the Rams from the Superbowl. And the main reason was it's really hard to do that. And I wasn't sure if this is that team that's going to do it. And they barely did it last year. Where do you think Odell goes? Because there's been some... Ariel Hawane was talking about it on Tuesday.

There's been some eyelash batting at the Buffalo Bills. That's been going on. And he and Vaughn are really tight. Odell has the luxury. He could wait a couple more months until he gets healthy and sign on mid-season just like he did last year. At first, I thought it was going to be the luxury. He could wait a couple more months until he gets healthy and sign on mid-season, just like he did last year. At first, I thought it was going to be the Rams. Obviously, that was the favorite coming into the clubhouse.

He breaks open the whole thing. He's at the Rams opening game as a ceremony. I love it. They had to tell the NFL that he was there for a workout, so they didn't get tampering charges. It's hilarious. But he has the luxury of waiting and looking in, in October, November and saying, all right, who's at the top of the standings?

Who do I feel good about? Right. And I think at the end of the day, it's going to likely come down to Buffalo or Los Angeles. Interesting. Um, we mentioned that I mentioned Arizona really quick. So they, they look like the worst team in the league. It's an unbelievable Raiders collapse combined with Kyler. Just reminding people like,

hey, very much like Kyrie for whatever you want to say about me. I can light it up for an hour like nobody in the league. And now Arizona is playing the Rams this week. They're home. They're three and a half point underdogs. And I think they're on my do not bet list. You can't bet them the whole season. Let's put that in pen right now. Okay, so they're on the do not bet list. I agree. I just wanted to hear from you. Yeah, and like, you know,

it's so fun watching Kyler when he's good. It's so frustrating watching Kyler when he's bad because the body language is terrible all the time. Like even in that game, there was three things that happened that I'm like, I'm flying back from LA and I'm writing it down in my little notebook for like good morning football the next day. And okay, he has the delay a game on the two point conversion and he basically flips off the sideline.

And you're like, bro, then Ertz doesn't run the right route. And he like Ertz, you know, Ertz isn't going to the Hall of Fame, but Ertz is like a several time pro bowler and a veteran in the locker room. And he like flips off Ertz's like, what are you doing? Running the wrong route. And then the last one, when he scores the game, you know, the touchdown that cuts it to two at the end,

he's reaching the ball out at the seven yard line. Like just like stretching it out, like hot dog in a little bit. And you're like, no, no, Kyler, just put it under your,

like protect the ball. There's a chance you can get stripped. Um, that's where he had to AJ green when he threw it between like 17 people it's like what is happening he's so damn good he must be so frustrating to be on a team with

to coach everything because he has that in him then you have Cliff who's supposedly the offensive guru and the last hour of the game is just Kyler running around there's no plays they ran 56 plays in second half in overtime. And I spoke to Cliff afterwards and he was like, a lot of that was just Kyler drawing it up in the dirt. And at that point it's like, go do it. And that's not a knock on Cliff. It's like,

Kyler is the most dynamic player in the sport when he is in that mode. It's just, how do you get him in that mode every single week? And that might not be something that happens every week. Every single half, but when it does, the highs are so high. It's you said Kyrie Irving. I'm trying to think if there's any other football players that have been like this, where it's like when this guy is locked in and wants to be that guy, I don't even want sounds like I'm knocking Kyler. Like when it's going right. But there's but there's another piece to him where, especially in that half, I had the Raiders, obviously, and they start running the play stats. And where it's a half or just the defense is on the field for a while.

He wears you down. And you can't catch him. It's like the little kid in recess who's just, nobody hits tag. And it's like, well, we can't tag you. And he's just running around. He's hiding under the jungle gym. And he's like, well, this isn't fun anymore. We can't catch you.

And that's what I felt like with Crosby and Chandler Jones, who I thought sucked in that game. But he psyched them out. They were dead. And then Hunter Renfro, who we give all this credit for being Mr. Possession. Two fumbles in that play right there is a fantastic play by the rookie Simmons.

And Murphy's on the spot. But if you're Hunter Renfro and you're Mr. Possession and underneath guy, you can't fumble that ball. Like you have run the ball. How about that idea? Devante Adams, two catches in that game. Let's take a break. And then I want to play a little panic meter. After decades of shaky hands caused by debilitating tremors, Sunnybrook was the only hospital in Canada who could provide Andy with something special. Three neurosurgeons, two scientists, one movement disorders coordinator, 58 answered questions, two focused ultrasound procedures,

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Safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really.

This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. All right, Panic Meter. Saruti loves this segment. Saruti loves gimmicky 1980s sports radio segments, but Panic Meter's fun. Nat Hackett, PI. I'm at a 10. Ben Solak wrote a long piece.

Oh, I read it. And Ben's coming on after you. And we don't need to rehash the piece. The piece is great. He also did his video series for us laid out. These were mistakes that were horrifying to watch in real time. Like a team that didn't seem like they had a coach, like very basic, what are we going to do decisions that he just seemed woefully unprepared for has been laid out in that piece to the point that they're also on my do not bet list.

You're going to have to show me for multiple weeks that there's more cohesion. What is going on? Why is this guy so seemingly over his head? I've known Lindsay Jones from The Ringer for 20 years now. And Lindsay, anytime there's anything Denver related, I immediately go go to her timeline and I heard her and Kevin Clark speaking earlier this week on, on Kev's podcast. And what she was saying was spot on in that there was no sarcasm. There was no irony. It was like,

they were helping out Russell Wilson yelling the play clock down from, I've never seen this. The fans. Yeah. I have never seen this history. It's never happened. It wasn't sarcasm. It wasn't for,

it was like genuinely trying to help Russell Wilson with the play clock because it was so confounding. And then they're kicking a 64-yarder in Seattle. For week one. And then McManus is money. And then they get the delay game. And for 59, it's like, we can't hit. We can't dare. In altitude. In Denver.

That's where you're supposed to kick it. So the decisions are so confounding. And a lot of it, what about the goal to go stuff in the first half when he had like a minute and a half left on the clock and somehow they're scrambling and panicking. It's like, no college teams can do this. What are you guys doing? And you saw Russell get frustrated for like one moment, but he's such a consummate, like he's such a brand and such a consummate professional that like the

next time. And I think you and Sal actually mentioned it. Like when they did score, he was like, yeah, yeah, yo coach. Yeah, we did it. Um, Hackett's brilliant. And I know I say that, and that's going to be like, you know, a quote, Schrager says Hackett's brilliant. He's brilliant with the X's and O's and getting all that stuff going. I don't have any track record of Nathaniel Hackett as a game manager. And that's what head coaching is. A lot of this stuff is delegation and game management first. And they hire your team.

They hire the day balls doing. Yes. They hired a guy who I spoke to Hackett at the combine and I'm like, all right, first year defensive coordinator. You're a first year head coach, first year guys. I love the staff. I'm like, do you have that veteran guy? And he's like, I feel pretty comfortable with who we've got. And I brought in a guy who is analytics slash game management that I think I can really trust for those moments. I don't have that guy's name handy. That guy needs to step his shit up too. That guy died four weeks ago. He's underground. The one thing I learned, I guess, and I didn't really, I stayed away from Denver for the first two weeks anyway. I wasn't nuts about them. But when there's too much new in football, so there are two things that I noticed that I'm filing away for next year. much new and then the QB that's not there in the preseason

like with Burrow when Burrow had the appendix thing interesting and I mean the Bengals we can talk about them quickly I'm not going to overreact to them yet

because their offensive line which I don't think is as bad as it looked those first two weeks don't we have to factor in the TJ Watt Mike Mike Parsons combo? Yes.

There's nobody else. No other team in the league has those two guys. They've already checked off the two best pass rushers in the league. Yes. Right. And a lot of that stuff is not the offensive line. It's Burrow not throwing the ball, hanging in the pocket. And he's a little rusty.

So yeah. So I filed that away of like, all right, this was bad. This was a chain of events. We can explain this maybe for week three. I'm willing to give them one more chance. I don't know if I'm going to bet on them this week. Denver, they were going to, I need a month.

I need a month of confidence. I need to know you know what to do with these different game. This is the stuff Belichick is the best at. I know. Say what you want about him with the draft, with weird offensive plays, but game management, the last three minutes of the first half with the draft, with like weird offensive plays, but game management,

like the last three minutes of the first half, knowing five minutes, the second half, um, that goal to go stuff, the last two minutes of a game. That's what the Pats were always brilliant at. And Hackett's the opposite.

So a lot of that, a lot of that stuff will come with experience, but that's not an excuse in the NFL where McVay and Belichick and Tomlin are these guys that have been around and they know how to manage that stuff. Like, you know, Brandon Staley last year was the guy where it was like, is there someone helping him on some of these decisions where we praised it the first half of the season and the second half of the season?

It was like, okay, you just don't go for it every time on fourth down. There needs to be some sort of, you know, guidance or a binder. The Ravens historically spend the most money on an analytics staff. And for a while there, Lamar was getting a lot of success on fourth and short. And a lot of it was John Harbaugh trusting his guys. I'm not sure every team has that. I do know Denver has invested a bunch into analytics. The problem is you need the coach to listen to those analytics guys.

And you need to be able to know the communication in that moment without even having a second to, you know, what are we doing? No conversation. I trust you. Here's the, here's the play. Let's go. I think that's going to happen over time. But the fact is this bill, they're one in one, the chargers are one in one. The Raiders are Owen too. The Ravens already banged up. You go through the AFC, the Bengals are Owen too. There's going to be one AFC South playoff team. Maybe two in the East. It's still open. It's still wide open. I look at them this weekend against San Francisco. Everyone's right. It's a

tough place to win. Their defense has played well. You say you're not betting on it, but Russell Wilson is still Russell Wilson. I feel like they've got ways away to go to be where they want to be. They're still just 1-1. They're not 0-2. When you say Russell Wilson is still Russell Wilson, you mean like... I believe so.

I think he looks all right. Basically, he's still the same human being he was two years ago? Because I don't feel like he's the same quarterback. I think he still looks okay. I thought he was good. Okay. They traded all this shit for him. They gave him a huge contract.

Okay is not good enough. I know. Meet those Kyler Murray moments. All right. One panic meter. The Wilson trade. I'm at an eight. I'm at an eight. I'm at an eight with Panic Meter.

If I'm a Broncos fan, this happened a few times with the Red Sox, especially when I was younger, where it was like, we got Jack Clark. Oh my God. Remember him in the 87 playoffs? Oh Jesus. Finally, he's going to own the monster monster and he shows up and it's just

not the same guy. And within a year, you're like, oh my God, this guy's luggage. Andre Dawson. I don't know if Wilson's like that, but it does feel like he's hitting a different phase of his career. He could change that on Sunday by just running around and creating time. The key with him was always creating the extra two, three seconds. I just don't see it from him anymore. It's been a struggle. I get that. But I still think he's got it in him and that's going to take time.

That's the same thing I'm saying about Hackett. Give him a little bit of time. This is week two. And he was with them this summer and they're all in on him. I think there's also another narrative going on that's parallel to this, that there's a lot of people, ex-players from the Seahawks, now coming out. Taking shots at them. KJ Wright.

People making like, rolling their eyes. A lot of those defensive guys from the Legion of Bumera believe that they're the reason that team did what they did. And for some reason, Russell Wilson gets all the credit for it. There is resentment there. And I feel like that's out there. I also think he's low-hanging fruit. He's not the coolest guy. He wore a shiny suit after a loss to the press conference. People cringe at Russell Wilson. They think he's corny. They think he's dorky. That's all low-hanging fruit. I also think he's really good at quarterback. And I think his

players that are on his Broncos team are buying in. And I think his coaches attached his lot to him. And I don't think that the Broncos are going to be one of these four and 13 teams this year. I think they're going to be okay. And I actually think they might beat the Niners this weekend. I'm going to give you some quarterbacks and you tell me who you have ahead of him. Right now for this year to try to win a Super Bowl? Mahomes, Rodgers, no.

No. Josh Allen, no way. No, no, no, no. Herbert and Burrow? No. All right, that's five. Yeah, I don't think he's top five. Tom Brady?

I'm not betting again. I'd put Brady over Wilson right now, yeah. Me too, that's six. Lamar? Yeah, I'd put Yeah. Me too. That's six. Lamar. Yeah. I'd put Lamar over, over Russell. I'd put him right.

I'd put him right there at eight. Kyler. I would take Russell over Kyler right now. You would. For this season. That's a good argument. Stafford, because he's banged up.

I wouldn't have him. Cousins, Dak, those guys. Yeah. Carr, the way Carr just... It was an argument, but Carr's looked like crap for two weeks. The only other one I... What about our new hero, Tua? Jalen Hurts?

Oh, Tua. I was going to say Hurts and Tua are both right in that conversation. Hurts. I think I would rather have Jalen Hurts than Wilson. So there's nine. There's nine. And I don't even know if I'd want to bet on Jalen Hurts in a playoff game, but what he did against Minnesota,

I don't think Wilson can do that anymore. And then my 10th one would be, I can't believe I'm saying this, and this is a huge gamble. I really like what I'm seeing from Trevor Lawrence. I knew you were going there. I just love Trevor Lawrence. I just love that guy.

He's being coached. I think he can make more throws. That play when he had Javante Williams at the goal line. I literally didn't see him. Screen grab, pretty tough. Alright, more panic meter. Brady and the Bucs. I'm at like a three and a

half. I think they'reucks. I'm at like a three and a half. I think they're fine. They're just, I think they got it. No, I don't think they're fine for like the next couple of weeks, but I'm thinking November, December,

January. I think there'll be okay. Right now. I don't like it. I'm very cautious on them over the next few weeks. If they hit the skids and like what becomes of this, because their defense is awesome right now, but their offense has been anemic. They needed

that pick six last week. They got the play by Perriman, which was huge. Their defense has been lights out. But that's why I'm not worried is because I think their defense is going to be able to carry them. That's why I'm at a three and a half, four. I would be more five or six. The suspension's whatever with Evans,

but you start talking about already week two, Julio's hurt. Gage hasn't gotten... You're talking about injuries already at the wide receiver spot. I don't think Gronk is coming back yet. And they're going to have to eventually start scoring some points.

And Brady, if he's under duress from that offensive line, it could be trouble. I heard Evans' defense was... So you're giving me one eleventh of the Deshaun Watson suspension? Really? That's what we're doing here?

Like, why don't they do the thing where he just gets suspended for the first quarter? I never understood why a game is so significant in the NFL. So severe. It should just be like a quarter or the first half. Kansas City fans are up in arms because I don't know all the details, but Willie Gay,

their star linebacker, he just got docked for four games. Right. You know, personal conduct stuff, but we don't know exactly what it was, so I'm not going to weigh in, but if he's getting four games and Watson got what he got,

like, and, and Gay, I don't know. Whatever. Titans and Colts. I'm a 10 and a 10 on the panic meter. Fair.

10 and 10. The Colts look absolutely ab a 10 and a 10 on the panic meter. Fair. 10 and 10. The Colts look absolutely abominable. And can't block, even though they're paying their left guard like $15 million a year. They gave him that deal, $20 million a year. He's a guard and he's great. And he's a great humanitarian. And he's the Colts guy. And Quentin Nelson's great.

But he's not touching the ball a single play. To pay an offensive guard that money, you better feel confident that you've got other guys. And I don't know who plays wide receiver for the Colts. This Pittman had a decent year last year. He's hurt. The Doolin, Alec Pierce is a rookie. None of these guys are on the field. And then we get to the games.

And old man Matt. Yeah. And you get to the games and you're like, all right, Matt Ryan, go and lead us with throwing the ball to we don't know know who, the poorest offensive line. And every year, we are like the cult of the team coming in and they got this new quarterback. Not this year. It's not this year. And Jim Irsay, we know how he handled Carson Wentz. He's been tweeting up a storm about how much he loves Matt Ryan. Well, I'm curious to see. Let's

check in on that one. They look bad and Tennessee looks worse. The most alarming thing for Tennessee for me, and he broke his foot last year. He looked slow in the playoffs. There was a lot of evidence against him maybe ever getting back to the form he had, the curse of 370, all that stuff. And then I think he's looked, Derrick Henry's looked really slow. And for him in the first two games, have not seen the same kind of big boy stuff from him. I know. It's scary.

And on top of it, they have no skill position, guys. The Tannehill thing. Now you have Malik Willis. His breath's on Tannehill's neck now. Yes, come on. It's a logical conclusion. He's not pinned against his back or anything. What are you talking about?

It's definitely like, oh, what's on my neck? What is that? It's nothing that Malik Willis has done to increase his odds. It's just how bad Tannehill's been. And then it's a logical conclusion nothing that Malik Willis has done to increase his odds it's just how bad Tannehill's been and then it's a logical conclusion like you reveal yourself if Tannehill can't get the job done and you took a recorder

back in the third round eventually Tannehill's in the final year of his contract it's like alright we have no other choice Tannehill's been terrible well he's

he's think of it he's like you want to give him a really nice car that's decked out and he can drive it fine but if you're giving him a banged up car and's decked out and he could drive it fine. But if you're giving him a banged up car and you're asking him to drive it the same way now,

he's Ryan Tannehill. He's the guy we saw in the Dolphins. That's the problem. Here's the other thing. And it's funny because A.J. Brown has bristled at any conversation about it and doesn't talk about it when asked. He actually takes the high road. But the word out of Tennessee was that they couldn't come to terms with a deal for AJ Brown. So they traded him. The deal that AJ Brown signed with the Eagles is not a crazy contract. It's actually on par with all tier two wide receivers or low tier one. He's not in that Devante Tyreek thing, but it was a very manageable contract. And when you trade AJ Brown at 25 years old and he's healthy and he looks amazing with the Eagles and you're like, well, we drafted Traylon Burks. That's a lot on Traylon Burks. And you better have the production from the other guys. And they don't. Very interesting decision.

And AJ Brown, from what I gather, wasn't asking for the moon. He was asking for what his market value was, which the Eagles were more than happy to pay him. Yeah. Either you pay your quarterback or pay your franchise receiver at this point. It's got to be one or two. What you don't want to do is pay your left guard the most money in the team. I'm going to say that's not sustainable. I want Quentin Nelson to get four catches for 63 yards this week. Well, they're playing Tennessee and it's at Tennessee. Vegas is slightly favored minus one and a half. That's one of the games I like because Vegas, I watched both games. They were right there with the chargers.

Card didn't play that well. They left that one on the table. I felt like they could have stolen that one if car played a little better. And then week two, you know, they dominate the cards. They could have put them away. They settled for a field goal over a touchdown. Cards start coming back, couple three and outs.

And it just, the game tilted. And now all of a sudden the cards are on their 53rd play of the second half. And it got stupid. With that said, they almost won that game too. They had a first down on the 40. They were almost in field goal range. Deron Harmon should have had the play of the game, that deep pass to Hollywood. And Deron Harmon jars you loose.

They get the ball back. They're on the Cardinals side. They're at the 40. Like Daniel Carlson can make that. And then Hunter Renfro fumbles and, you know, crazy. Don't forget about the fourth down PI where they showed the replay.

And it was one of those defensive holding. You're like, what was that? Can you show that a second time? I think the NFL has buried that tape. I've not seen that footage since the game. That footage doesn't exist. A couple more panic meter quickly. Kirk cousins. I've not seen that footage since the game. That footage doesn't exist. A couple more panic

meter quickly. Kirk Cousins, I've never wavered from a five. The mistake last week with Underdog Parlay for us, and you were involved. We glossed over the primetime Kirk thing, and JJ was laughing. John Jastrzemski was laughing. He's like, what are you guys doing? You don't bet on primetime Cousins.

We did, and I'll never do it again. But here's my issue. He's on the do not bet list. Why is that more primetime than a four o'clock Fox game against the Packers where everyone in America is watching the extra three hours of that time to prep? Like that's what's going to get them. Like I love, I love like the numbers and the stats, but he's, he's beaten the saints in the playoffs in New Orleans. But no, to your point, he's now 2-11 on Monday Night Football.

That's crazy. They're minus 5-0 at home against Detroit. And I'm a little worried about the overreaction piece where Detroit, people like their offense. They banged up Washington last week. Minnesota looks terrible coming off a Monday night. Their defense, the coach looked like he was just in a coma.

I still don't understand what that defense was. Hey, Jalen Hurts, just throw for eight yards every time. Or run. Detroit's plus 194, and I'm at least sticking them as a underdog parlay candidate. 2-1 odds almost. Yeah, that's a maybe. That game's interesting.

What I don't love about that game is that it's in Minnesota. The first Detroit games were in Detroit and they still had to get their groove and they had that big comeback against the Eagles and then they had to come back against Washington. You're like, all right, Minnesota is a house of horrors in Minnesota, maybe for a young team. So I would stay away. I like the five and a half a little bit more because I like the teams that have weapons where even if they're down double digits, I feel like they can get the cheap touchdown late. That's why I liked Atlanta

last week. I didn't bet on it for million dollar picks, but the trade could be down 10 with three minutes left and you get the drive going down. Hey, did you and Sal talk about Amon Ross St. Brown, the new best player in the NFL? What an unbelievable player. Did you see what he said this week? He said that because I think he was the eighth wide receiver taken. He said that- Oh, he can list all the dudes in front of him. Can do that, sure. But during pregames, I was looking all up and down the sideline for a guy named Dynami Brown, who was drafted by Washington before him. And he was looking for him, seeking him out. He's like, I didn't see him. I was looking for him. I wanted to see him. I have

his name over my locker. That's the kind of stuff that I'm as a sports nerd I absolutely love it's like you know the Michael Jordan stuff or LeBron I love that shit I want a website where the the people who are just completely aggrieved by where they got drafted it seems like they have a 100 success rate what is it's Brady it's it's him Brady was a great one no there's been a lot of them there's some good ones Draymond Green is a good one. No, there's been a lot of them. There's some good ones. Draymond Green is a good one. Draymond Green can list everybody in his draft that went ahead of him. I love that.

Wait, three more panic leaners. Rams. I'm at a seven with the Rams. Is that fair? I think they'll take care of business this weekend. So where are you? I'm at a five with the Rams. I didn't like how they played the first two weeks.

And what scares me is both those games were at home where they should have been, you know, hyped up, good to go. Like does that team travel? We'll see. I think there'll be okay in Arizona though.

The fields air. I'm at a four and you could talk to me, you know, a five just cause like he, like he doesn't complete passes. It seems, I always thought that was part of a quarterback's job is to get, I don't know,

is 15 completions in a game a lot, 20. And he's at like seven, eight, a game. And that, that now that could be a skill position guys or that manage that they're playing Packers week two, terrible weather week one. I I'm not over a five yet, but it's on my radar. I mean, long-term. Yeah, sure. I, he has the season, right? There's like, like we'll see. And, and Luke Getze has been getting crushed as an offensive coordinator. He was the quarterback. It's funny. Rogers last year was with Hackett as his OC and Getze is his quarterback's

coach. I think the two most critiqued people in coaching right now are Hackett as a head coach and Getze as an offensive coordinator. Rogers was pretty good maybe. But it's going to be interesting to see how they, that offensive helps. You can't have a quarterback completing like four passives in a game. Like you have to throw the ball and he's got to get better and accurate. But to your point, we knew going in, you know, everyone, all the fantasy guys are Darnell Mooney. I was like, sure. But like Darnell Mooney, obviously it's hard to just generate offense through Darnell

Mooney. And he hasn't gotten any looks because defenses know that's the one guy to cap to cover on that offense. I think the running backs on that team are going to just, that's what they'll do. They're just going to run the ball. But if you're down, I mean, play action,

it's different. Exactly. They were down 13 or 14 points in Montgomery and Herbert started going in the second half. And you know, fantasy wise, it's great, but you don't win football games,

just running the ball down 14 points. P, you know, fantasy-wise, it's great, but you don't win football games just running the ball down 14 points. Pitts, I'm at a three, but you could talk me into a four. Zero. Why doesn't he get the ball? Drake London did great. Kyle Pitts, he lines up.

It's just like, throw to the guy who looks like he's bigger, faster, and stronger than everyone on the other team. He's right there. It's funny. He was serving as a decoy to Cardero Hodge on Sunday. Right. He's right there. It's funny. He was serving as a decoy

to Cardero Hodge on Sunday. Right. Feed the beast. Give him the ball. He'll get going. I'm a zero on that one. I know he's burned a lot of people. Well, he's had three of my fans.

So I'm at a four. You're not alone. And then I talked to my son in a draft game and we were driving home from football practice yesterday. He's like, I'm trading Kyle Pitts.

I'm like, don't. You don't trade anyone after week two. He's like, he sucks. He doesn't get the ball. What are. You don't trade anyone after week two. He's like, he sucks. He doesn't get the ball. What are you doing, dad? You suck at this. Why do I listen to you? He's screaming at me in the car.

I love that. Can I just drive home? My last one is Trubisky. I'm at a 13 on Trubisky at a 10. Well, we're recording this on a Thursday afternoon. I'm at a 13 as well. Well, it's going to run before the game. Oh, it is?

Okay. I think this will be his last start today. It'll be Kenny Pickett after tonight. I'm at a 13 as well. I hate being negative on Patriots. He was awful against the Patriots.

Oh, my Lord. He was awful against the Bengals too. And I just, let's see what happens with this Browns game. Browns are favored, obviously.

And again, by the time you listen to this on your commute on Friday morning, if you're listening, we'll know already. But Pickett looked really good in the summer,

but Tomlin dug his heels in and was like, Trubisky's our guy. I went on your podcast for the season. I'm like, oh, no, no, this is Trubisky's team. But now after a month or after three weeks, we'll start to hear the chirping out of the locker room if they want to see a change because those are too many veteran players.

Look, when you've got three stallions like they have at wide receiver and Claypool and Deontay Johnson and, of course, the new guy Pickens and they're not getting going and Claypool and Deontay Johnson. And of course, the new guy Pickens, and they're not getting going. And those are three guys with personalities. We'll start hearing soon enough. It's a really weird misfire by a top five coach who I think all of us really respect that he was just like, Mitch is my guy, but they're not paying him crazy money. And yes, he misfired maybe in the starting him, but they did draft a quarterback with a 20th overall pick.

So someone there thought, I better hope that works out. I know. I know three. So the underdogs, the lines are all weird this week. Everything is very tight. The only three I was looking at were Carolina plus one 32,

their home against the saints. And I really liked them. I liked them straight up and the money Jackson Jacksonville is plus 240 against the Chargers. You got Herbert's a little banged up. Jacksonville second in DVOA right now, which I thought was interesting after two games. And then the last one is that Detroit we mentioned

plus 194. There's also Washington's plus 240 against Philly if you want to go zag against Philly. But I got to say, I haven't loved the underdog options this year. Remember last year? Oh my God. We cleaned up. There was plus 200s all over the place. Let me tell you, the Falcons are underdogs

in Seattle. I kind of like Atlanta. They're underdogs. See, I had them down, but on FanDuel, we're taping this early Thursday afternoon my time. Yeah, Atlanta's minus one now, so they don't count. What? Okay, start of the week, they were a Yeah, Atlanta's minus one now. What? Okay, start of the week, they were a favorite.

Yeah. I don't feel passionate. Have we ever done just a pass on the, or we probably got to pick two teams here. Well, I was thinking if we did the Carolina plus 132 with the Lions plus five and a half, we never kind of cheated and just grabbed the spread or Jags plus seven and we took

a straight up thing. Carolina straight up money line. Carolina wins. Carolina is plus 132. Then you do a Jags plus seven or you do

a Lions plus five and a half with that? How about, because I feel like we're cheating the underdog parlay by not going to straight upset picks. Listen, they didn't give us enough choices. Why don't we do the straight up Carolina and then we also include in the parlay both of those teams covering to make it a little bit more difficult.

A three team? You heard me. So Raheem the Dream Palmer would not like this. Is that a cardinal sin? Well, you're basically like, no, it's just hard. Just giving money away. Tell me which one you like more between Detroit and Jags. I like the Jags more than Detroit.

Yeah, I think I do too. So we could do, I mean, I could flip that line to seven and a half too. Does that make it a little more exciting for you? Yes. Do a little Jags. And the only reason I say that is because I don't know if Herbert can throw a football anymore. That was crazy last Thursday and I want to see it before I believe it. Everyone says he's fine. And if it's Chase Daniel, maybe it is, I don't know. But Herbert looked really, really hurt. And I thought he was really, really commendable for playing through that. But I don't know. Trevor Lawrence looks pretty good. I think the Jags can hang with them. Carolina Moneyline. Jags plus

seven and a half is minus 136. Put those together. Plus 302. Three to one odds. What do you think? I love that. All right. We'll do that. All right, great. And we both like the Falcons as well. All right, plug some stuff. Yeah, good morning football. Every morning, 7 to 10 Eastern NFL Network. We're really in a groove. We're actually going to London next week, which will lead to some hilarity leading up to that Viking Saints game.

And then I'm on Fox NFL kickoff every single Sunday, 11 to 12 Eastern. We got Sean Payton in studio this year. He's good. He's very good. And he's telling stories and he's got a little salt to him. I think it's a really good pregame show. And I know how critical you and Sal are of pregame shows.

Yeah, we don't like them. But I enjoy when you're on though. It's fun to see you. I appreciate you saying that. Good to see you, Shrakes. You're the man, dude. All right. The Poison Ivy King is here. Benjamin Solak from The Ringer.

I thought you were going to have an eye patch. I was so excited. I wanted to wear one for the show this week, for our YouTube show, but they told me that it wasn't professional, which, you know, I'm not professional, period. So you're in the backyard, and you know it's poison ivy? Can you walk us through this? Because I always thought you were one of our smartest

people at The Ringer, but now you have poison ivy on your eye and I don't know what to think. Here's the issue is I had new homeowner gumption where we just bought this house. Okay, there's poison ivy in the backyard. And I was like, all right, time to roll up my sleeves and do the house chores and be an adult and handle my property. And I thought I took all of the necessary precautions. I generally didn't get it that bad. It's just I got it on my face. So at this point, I needed to swallow the pill and acknowledge the fact that I, as a Gen Z-er, don't have life skills and need to begin calling professionals to do things for me. I had a sewage pipe bursting with you getting Poison Ivy was plus 450 on FanDuel. I had a little. I didn't have a lot on it. I currently don't have hot water because our water heater started leaking. So we're just out

here doing the homeowner thing, baby. It's a lot of fun. So if you go on TheRinger.com, you can read all the stuff you wrote about Denver and how horrified you were about a net hack at PI. And then you also in your videos, I don't want to rehash all the Denver stuff. You do have a Bengals piece coming. Schrager and I talked about the Bengals a little bit and I am in the, on the panic meter. I'm probably about a four. I don't like the own to start obviously. I'm not ready to go crazy about the offensive line yet just because of the two guys they went against that there's nobody else in the league like Parsons and Watt. What did you see from the games other than rustiness from Burrow, the inability to block those two guys? What else worried you? Yeah. So you talk about those two guys and appropriately so, but we often say sacks are a quarterback stat. And even to that degree, pressure can oftentimes be a quarterback stat.

The way Burrow is behaving behind his line is really worrisome. We saw this a lot with Russell Wilson across the course of his career in Seattle, where the better Russ thought his line was, the more likely he was to hang onto the football in the pocket, the more likely he was to wait around in the pocket

for an extra beat, to let a route develop down the field and see if he can get an explosive play. When he thought his line was bad, that's when he would get rid of the ball quickly. That's when he would avoid pressure by distributing, by getting outside of the pocket fast. And you're seeing that with Burrow. Their line definitely got better. They added new players. The players are improved. But Burrow now, in 2021, you'd see him, I have Javar Chase, I have single coverage, ball's out right now. You see him drop back, you see him look to Chase, you'd see him i have to bar chase i have single coverage balls out right now you see him drop back you see him look to chase then you see him take a beat and it's odd to see him take that beat that's not how he played last season and a lot of that i think is because he

thinks he's going to have better protection than he really does jonah williams was losing to alex highsmith in that in that that first game that they played against the steelers doris armstrong is beating the interior guys in the Week 2 game against the Cowboys. They're losing across the board, but Burrow was solving these problems for them last year, and this year he's not behaving the same way. On dropbacks of longer than two seconds, Burrow is zero

touchdowns to three interceptions. He's leading the lead in sacks taken. Anytime he chooses to hold onto the football, bad things are happening. Cincinnati has to find a way to become quick distribution again, and it's incumbent on the quarterback, bad things are happening. So Cincinnati has to find a way to become quick distribution again. And it's incumbent on the quarterback to change his play style. They are minus six at the Jets.

The Jets should have lost by seven and Nick Chubb doesn't go down. And then the world changes. Jets plus six and a half. Never in doubt, baby. We're chilling. When you look at the Bengals, though, that Steelers tie looks worse

after what we saw from the Steelers from week two and we're taping this before the Browns game tonight but the Steelers offense is just so inept

that it's kind of unbelievable the Bengals didn't beat them I'm putting the Bengals on my do not bet list for now like for and against I think

that's a stay away I want to see more. I feel the same way about Denver, at least for the next few weeks until they figure out the coaching thing. Who else is on your do not bet list? Just stay away until further notice. Who else do you have? I'm very strong in the Bengals do not bet list. I like worked through their entire offense. And usually after I do a piece on a team, I'm like, all right, I feel confident betting them. And I finished that offense and I was like, God almighty, I'm not touching this team.

So I'm not touching them. I'm not touching Dallas anytime soon. Uh, the two data points we have now are way too weird with a win with Cooper rush, a loss with Dak Prescott. I thought the defense was going to regress and it has, but not as much as I thought.

I don't know exactly how disruptive it is. Dallas is on that list for me for sure. Carolina's on that list. I know you're on this whole Panthers. I'd be good. I can't quit Carolina. I know you're on this whole Panthers might be good thing. I can't quit Carolina. I can't get on the boat with Carolina. The running game looks good

through the first two weeks. It looks like this can work. They get some good Baker downfield shots. They've had some drops. It feels like it's close. And then McCaffrey gets banged up in practice. And they just always feel like one piece away. The line's really untrustworthy.

I don't like looking at Carolina. They've had some bad luck too. They lose on a 59 yard field goal. And then just always feel like one piece away. The line's really untrustworthy. I don't like looking at Carolina games right now. They've had some bad luck too. They lose on a 59-yard field goal. And then in week two, they start the game out. They fumble the kickoff. So basically, they give away the first drive of each half, which is never great. They still tied it. I don't know. I'm not

worried about them yet. The other team I don't want to bet is Washington because Washington's offense right now is so volatile. Wentz is throwing downfield more than anybody else in the league. They're doing a great job with those downfield throws, but it's all third down stuff. So it's either like 30-yard gain or punt. That's a really hard offense to predict.

So I love the Eagles and really enjoying what we're seeing through two weeks, but I don't want to really touch the Eagles-Washington game, especially with the Wentz back in Philly thing. There's just a lot going on there. Totally agree. That is the Jekyll and Hyde team of the first two weeks. You come away from week one and you're like, oh, Washington.

Hmm. Didn't expect. And then week two, they're a disaster. I think I would throw in the Giants for one more week for me. I need to see it. I'm not sure what they are, but I kind of like the vibe, but I'm not sure I can ever bet on Daniel Jones.

But I'm also afraid to bet against them, so I'd throw them on there as well. They're not the one that's good on there. I have not been impressed by them through two games, and also they're 2-0, so I don't know how to calibrate. That's a put-your-hand-out-before-you-pet-the-dog That's the same. Put your hand out before you pet the dog thing. Let the dog sniff your hand. Ravens, Pats. The Ravens are a temporary. I love the

Ravens this week because I don't think the Pats are very good. And I was even willing, we made some progress back a million dollar picks last week, but still under. And I was willing to even throw the Pats, an anti-Pats bet in there to get a win. The Ravens are banged up. And I think there's, I want to see like, what kind of shape are they in health-wise? We're not going to know. I think that's the reason the line right now is under three.

And then you have the Lamar. I mean, they're beating Miami by 21 points in the second half. So some good stuff is happening, but I don't know what to make of them. You have any thoughts on that game before we move? Yeah. So I like the Ravens. I had them at one and second half. So some good stuff is happening, but I don't know what to make of them. You have any thoughts on that game before we move? Yeah. So I like the Ravens. I had them at one and a half. I like them at two and a half. Still, I think you're going to get enough pieces back that offensively right now they look really, really good. Like this Lamar from the pocket's been awesome. He's throwing the ball really well. The running game is not great, but JK Dobbins

actually was a full participant in practice. So this might be the week we finally get J.K. Dobbins back. The end of that Miami game, I mean, like, Dolphins fans took me to the woodshed for that game, but I... The more I think about that fourth quarter, the more I think a lot of it's going to seem like an aberration for both teams. I don't think the Dolphins can sustain winning

on 28-point fourth quarters throughout the course of the season, but with that said, they made the Ravens' secondary run for hours. The NGS, with their player tracking, the Ravens' secondary ran more total yardage than any team had over the last two seasons. The Ravens' pass rush, right?

They were not blitzing. They were winning with four rushers. In the first three quarters, they had a pass rush win rate of like 50% or something. And then fourth quarter, 22%. The Ravens just got gassed, right? So I think the Ravens are... So did the Raiders. That was what happened

to the Raiders too. It happened twice in the same day. I think you have a Ravens team that's going to be good. They're not going to have those time of possession problems. Not going to be going up against that much receiver speed every single week. And I think they're going to be able to finish games and be able to handle teams like the Patriots. It's the Dolphins who are really interesting to me because we've always had this theory of smash mouth football, like ground and pound, ground and pound, ground and pound. We're going to physically dominate you by the fourth quarter.

You're going to be tired. And the Dolphins are kind of doing a similar thing. Like, hey, we're going to beat you late because you're going to be exhausted, but they're not doing it with power. They're doing it with speed. We're just going to make you run so much that by the fourth quarter,

we can start pouring points on you. Now they get Buffalo and handicapping that Buffalo game. I mean, that Buffalo line looks so freaking juicy. But I do wonder if we get that backdoor cover and you're kind of worried about what the Dolphins bring in the second half and everybody's tired. Buffalo favored by five and a half in Miami.

We'll see what the weather is on Sunday. I think this is a once-in-a-season chance for a parlay here with the Bills at the Dolphins. Bills minus 250 and the Chiefills at the Dolphins, Bills minus 250, and the Chiefs at the Colts minus 260. I think the Colts are one of the three worst teams in the league. I don't think anything was an aberration from the first two weeks with them. Whether Pittman comes back or not, I just don't see it with that team. I know it's a must win. I know there's some red flags with the 0-2 team in the must win situation at home,

but I think you and I are more bullish on the Chiefs than others. I know there's some red flags with the 0-2 team in the must-win situation at home. But I think you and I are more bullish on the Chiefs than others. And then you have the Bills against the Dolphins. The Dolphins, again, we're down by 21 to Lamar. To me, is this the last week where we're able to get the Bills at a little undervalued before they start getting treated like the 0-7 Pats? I feel like three weeks from now, this game is like Bills minus 10 and a half because they're such a juggernaut.

So why not jumping on them now? I very much agree. The thing to be concerned about with this line and the trap is the health in the Buffalo secondary right now. Micah Hyde, limited in practice. Jordan Poirier, limited in practice. Obviously, Notre Dame, US White. They're banged up in that defensive backfield.

And that's part of what killed the Ravens. The Ravens had to put young rookie corners out there, make them run, make them communicate against all this Dolphins passing game, all this stretch, all this speed, and they ended up busting and giving up some explosive plays. Buffalo might be in a similar boat, and that's what gives you worry. Buffalo's offense feels like plug and chug 35 points. This is not a conversation, right?

This is going to be their first test against a really like man coverage, heavy team. They're going to get guys up on the line of scrimmage, pushing them in the face, right? Against both the Rams and the Titans. You had that kind of like off

cover. You had zone and Josh Allen's been such a good quick game passer this year, better than we've ever seen him. Now you're going to get this physical style of coverage. We should probably see more deep shots. It should look a little

bit more like Buffalo offenses of old, but Gabe Davis is expected to play in this game. And so they do have that vertical guy, their big downfield threat. I struggle to see how the Buffalo offense gets stopped. So I think you're a little bit safer on like Buffalo team total lines. I think you're a little bit safer on like Buffalo first half spread because you're worried about the Dolphins speed fatigue thing coming in the fourth quarter. But overall, five and a half to me is overreactive to one really good quarter of Miami Dolphins football

against Baltimore. I think the Buffaloes are a touchdown better than the Dolphins at least. You also have the AFC East thing. You have the Bills trying to lay the smack down in this first month

as we are the big boys of the 2022 season. They're getting, so, oh, the Dolphins. Well, what about the Dolphins? And I just feel like if this team has it, you win this game. You put the, the Dolphins. Well, what about the Dolphins? And I just feel like if this team has it, you win this game.

You put the Bills and the Chiefs together, it's minus 107 money line parlay. It's basically even odds. Who's losing that out of those two? I think Buffalo's a better chance to lose. The Chiefs-Colts line

is like classic trap line. It's like 2-0 Incredible Chiefs versus 0-2 really bad Colts. Five and a half. Go ahead, take it. We dare you. I'd feel more worried about it if it wasn't Patrick Mahomes

versus Gus Bradley, because he's seen Gus Bradley a lot. He's the stats are crazy, right? For multiple years with the Raiders. And exactly. Patrick Mahomes averages like 80% completion percentage or something against this defense.

I think that even if you're worried about a spirited Colts offensive performance, the Colts defense does not do anything, anything that Mahomes hasn't seen beaten up and beaten up again over the course of his career. Like this is pitch and catch stuff. And so my biggest positions prop wise

and then kind of building out same games this week will be on Chiefs offense and Mahomes production. I just don't see a way in which the Colts win this by taking the air out of the Chiefs' sails. Wait a second. Are you saying you put a little Solak same-gamer in the soup pot? What do you got? What were you making for us?

So if you're looking at Chiefs to cover 5.5, Patrick Mahomes over 300 receiving yards, and Travis Kelsey over 80 receiving yards you're looking at a same game of about plus 500 and that to me is just the primary target the primary the the league's best quarterback and a spread against the defense that he's beaten

multiple times when he played with the Raiders over multiple years like if the Raiders had or excuse me not the Raiders if the Colts had a really good pass rush I'd maybe feel a little worried about it that's how this Gus Bradley defense works when it works. But you haven't seen that from Quiddie Payne and Yannick Ngakwe this year. Forrest Buckner's been quiet through two weeks.

They are not getting the play they wanted to from that front. And we still don't even know if Shaq Leonard's playing. They built this thing around a cornerstone in Shaq Leonard. We do not know if he's going to be available for week three. There's just way too much doubt in the Colts defense that I struggle to see how we don't get there with my homes and Kelsey props, and then fold in your money lines,

folding your spreads, folding your team totals and juice the stats up. Five to one odds. What could you, we were not able to bet this, but would you bet on the Colts fans booing during the second half? Would you throw that in if there were odds on that? Yes,

I think so. I think that's the likely outcome this week. Is it Colts? Colts getting killed and the fans booing by the third quarter. If the Colts go another week without making Jonathan Taylor the true featured part of this offense, I don't know what's going to make him. They come out with a scripted drive last week with three Naeem Hines targets, and then he plays like 11 more snaps.

Naeem Hines is a fine little player. He's a good guy to have in your building. Good returner. Jonathan Taylor. Yeah. Perhaps the least, but let's get the ball in his hands from drive one. Let's stay on a neutral script.

Let's establish the run. Let's get him involved in the passing game. It's not like his hands don't work. Okay. Naeem Hines, good receiving back. Jonathan Taylor with the ball in his hands with blockers. This is so much easier than they're making it out to be. So if I'm a Colts

fan, I'm not feeling great about beating the Chiefs. But if we go another week where Taylor is not getting used on the altar of Desmond Patton and Mo Alleycox, I have a problem with somebody. It's too early to pay too much attention to DVOA, but it is interesting that Indy was 31

and Tennessee was 32. I would have guessed they were in the bottom four. Jacksonville Jaguars, AFC South odds, baby. I'm loving them. Feels good. And the Jags were too. The Jags were 13-1 heading into week two last week. Speaking of Tennessee,

Vegas is one of the ones I like. Vegas minus one and a half at Tennessee. I just think Tennessee is bad. I don't think that Bills thing, even though that's the worst possible team for them to play at, I just think Tennessee is bad. I don't think that Bill's thing, even though that's the worst possible team for them to play at, I just don't see it. I see the Tennessee season getting worse,

not better. And then Vegas could easily be 2-0. We covered that with Schrags on top. You see any red flags in Vegas before I proceed with that one? I think you have the Hunter Renfro injury, right? They don't have Trevon Merrick. They're dealing with some banged up stuff.

But in general, I think that their issues are so easily correctable on the offensive side of the ball. All right, two catches for Devonta Adams. Maybe we don't do that again and we score more points. That to me feels about as easy as it gets. They're a super pass-happy team too.

And if there is no Renfro, I think you're gonna see a big Adams game. I'm not sure the Titans have a corner that can respond to that. The Tennessee thing, man, I was flabbergasted to see that line open as close as it did. I know it's at home. I know variable is historically one tough games.

They're good at home against the spread. They're good at low, low, low spreads. Like this is a variable spot, but the pillars of this team talking about cornerstones, we built around AJ Brown and we built around Derek Henry. We built around Harold Landry and Taylor.

None of these guys are playing. I mean, Henry is, but is a shell of himself. The offensive line has been decimated. Landry goes down now. Bud Dupree is down with injury. This team is Kevin Bayard. In terms of the guys, they built the run around the last few years. There's one, maybe two of them left that are healthy and playing well.

We had to be something like Willis in the third quarter. This is a team in transition. They do not, I think at this time, deserve respect up against like playoff caliber teams like the Raiders. I think it's a great Raiders get back spot.

Bad off season for them. And I still don't totally understand the A.J. Brown decision, the whole thing. I totally understand it. As an Eagles fan, I see the vision so clearly. Great call.

Yeah, you love that it's the Eagles fan. Beautiful. Genius. One of the underdog parlays, because there's barely any underdogs this week that we would actually want to bet on. One of the underdog parlays we were thinking was Carolina Moneyline

plus 132 with Jags bumped to 7.5 against the Chargers, which is minus one 32. And you put those two together three to one. I think that Jags lines too high. And I might be a little too bullish on the Jags. They're coming off and pretty easy win against the Colts,

but I thought they looked pretty good in week one and they should have won. And Wentz just hit two crazy throws that a week later he would just throw the other team. I think there's something here with the Jags DV DVOA thinks so. What do you think? Love it. And it's bad. This is a guilty pleasure of mine. I don't want you taking me here. But I had Jags AFC South before the season. I had Trevor Lawrence MVP before the season. For me, it was all like the difference between Urban Meyer and Doug Peterson is like too much for us to even understand how big of an ad that is. And you see that in terms of they're just running professional stuff. They're

running smart stuff. There's so much cleaner of an operation. They should have won that Washington game. They should be two and oh, but here you go against the Chargers team where the Chargers have the talent that they should be able to beat a team like the Jaguars cleanly. But we have seen enough times over the last two years, Brandon Staley and Joe Lombardi, that they don't do that. They have a quarterback that should let them just step on a throat for four quarters and they won't do it. Now you're going to put a line that's a little bit banged up. Matt Filer had a rough game. Right tackle's been a turnstile against a good Jaguars defensive line. This is a unit that is causing disruption. They're creating havoc. You're not going to push the ball down the field.

You're going to get yourself into a one score game with a Jaguars offense that can run the football, cancel the football, beat you in a variety of ways. Like this reads like a one score game to me all the way through

because the Chargers simply won't be explosive. They choose not to be. So I like the Jaguars. Keenan Allen, Keenan Allen, not 100% healthy. I think he's going to play,

but he missed last week. And even then, like Keenan is a 4-6 player, right? Like he's good for them when they're underneath intermediate stuff. He doesn't really add the dimension of depth, of verticality to the offense that they need. It reads one score. It reads Jags staying within seven.

I like that look a lot. And I brought it up on the week one show. Books still don't know how to price Christian Kirk, man. He's the feature receiver of this offense. The yardage shows at like 60 and a half. The score at touchdown is like plus 120. He's the feature receiver of this offense. The yardage toll is at like 60 and a half. The score, a touchdown is like plus 120. It's too low. You just got to keep taking it until they make you stop. And I've watched a fair share

of the Jags' first two weeks. A little chip on his shoulder with Christian Kirk. I think he heard some of the chatter that he might have been overpaid. So do you like the plus seven and a half or the plus seven or do you like the Moneyline or both? The Moneyline is fun to sprinkle. I do think plus seven and a half is a lot better. Or do you like the money line or both? The money line is fun to sprinkle. I do think plus seven and a half

is a lot better. I think this is a one score game. And if you're one score late, I do still take Herbert over Lawrence in kind of that position. The the the the the Chargers defense as well.

We do, you know, by the same token, like Lawrence coming off a really good game, but it was against Gus Bradley, who I just spent like five minutes besmirching. So I think Lawrence's arrow

is pointing out that he's playing well. I don't want to overreact to pitch and catch against cover three in the Colts. Staley's pass defense a lot better. It could be a little bit more laborious, but James Robinson, the running game looks good. Don't be surprised if the Jaguars control the clock in this one to keep it close. Speaking of inexplicable defense, what the hell were the Vikings

doing against your team on Monday night? What was that defense? Running quarters coverage, baby. Harrison Smith from 12 yards of depth closing on Devontae Smith in the slot. It looks a lot better in the Big 12. When stuff doesn't work after a half hour, don't you come up with a plan B? Don't you mix in a blitz?

Don't you try to keep Hurts guessing? Hurts was great, and I know the Eagles fans are out of their minds right now about it and they should be but I've never seen a defense do less to challenge something

that was working for the other team I thought it was insane they fixed it a little in the second half but I didn't understand it so what happened it's funny because you said

right you said money line wise underdog wise you don't have a lot of teams you like I really like the Lions on the spread good that we had them

okay yeah yeah my biggest bet this week will be deandre swift overs the moment the books give me the freaking lines but swift and bang job and they haven't kind of you know priced anything out yet but both swifts and williams will be used in a big way the lions get swift the ball against light boxes no defense runs lighter boxes than the vikings swift is second league right now in rushing yards over expectation per attempt. He's breaking tackles in the second level. This reads like a Lions running game,

38 minutes time of possession, just dominate on the ground against a bad Vikings run defense. And that's what the Vikings are. They want to be too deep. We want to play quarters. We want to play with a light box, four down linemen, two linebackers,

and try to fit you with the run with stunts and with twists and with safeties dropping. And they just don't have the horses to do it. Ed Donatel, who's their defensive coordinator, is a big fan of Joe Disciple, said in a presser today, like, oh, we just got to execute. You don't have the guys. We have to execute. Sounds great when it's Cam Bynum, Jordan Hicks, and Cam Dancer playing. It works when you have enough players to make it happen. But this is a specific scheme that requires really, really good players in the back seven,

Minnesota isn't that right now. And so if they want to live in this world, Detroit is the absolute number one team built to beat them for it. Detroit's going to hand the football off 40 times, have a great day. Jacksonville and Detroit, money lines, parlay. Plus 899, that's 9-1.

It's funny, I just said on the Ringer Friday show for the NFL, I said the two preseason darlings for the Jags and the Lions, they both have inter-conference opponents, guys who are playoff caliber teams. At least one of them is going to show up and dawn and say, I'm a playoff team this year. So betting on both is scary.

I like Jags exposure. I like Lions exposure. If we get both of them, how awesome. I think one for sure has a game that kind of, they're able to get a big win. They're able to get a statement win. Both scares me. That's a little too much luck for week three. Carolina-Detroit plus 582?

If you want to do it with the Panthers, I'm not going to stop you, but the level of faith in this Panthers team scares me. We like that Atlanta minus one over Seattle. I think Seattle is in the running for worst team in the league and is not being properly priced yet.

You agree with that one? I think I've said on the show before, Atlanta was a team that I expected to hit a few times coming into this season. We didn't get the spread on the Rams game. Rams let them in the back door with the block punt, but the over on the team total has hit for Atlanta twice now. I think it's going to hit again against Seattle, and I think they're going to cover the spread. I like Atlanta early.

Books still don't know just how unique this offense is, which makes it tough to prepare for. You have an opinion, last but not least, on Niners Broncos. Yeah, so I took Niners money line when they opened as underdogs

in the beginning of the week. They are no longer underdogs. And so at this time, I wouldn't touch it. This Niners team is back to what they have been. Like when they were finishing the season last year, they had a super banged up backfield.

They had some injuries along the offensive line, but they had a really good, fast, effective secondary, a great front four. And they had Jimmy working with Debo in the backfield, Kittle and Iuk down the field. They tried to change everything in the offseason, and then you get a couple of injuries, and all of a sudden, look where they are.

It's Jimmy, Kittle's probably coming back for this game. Debo's going to have to take a lot of handoffs because there's no Elijah Mitchell. They're back on a script that they know, going against a Denver team that I think they beat in both trenches. Denver defensive line is good. Not that good.

The interior's really got to be able to beat the San Francisco interior, and that's not where they have their pass rushers. And then the San Francisco defensive line, I think, is going to have a good day against the Denver offensive line. So this reads to me

like a San Francisco win, but it's understandably close. It is a mile-high game in September. So with the edge now to San Francisco, I wouldn't touch it. Niners minus one and a half.

You get to bet against Kyle Shanahan against that Hackett PI. Get that going. The thing is that the Hackett solutions are so easy that they're going to come he's going to get better at some point so it feels like it feels like a a not a bottomless pot of

gold there's a bottom to that at some point they're going to get a couple fourth down calls right they're going to have a timeout when they need to have a timeout and they're going to be okay so you want to like you know i was on denver in week two i thought this is the get right game against houston it wasn't That get right game will come. They have too much talent. It's too good of a quarterback for them to continue to be underpriced. But I don't know if I'm going to be able to call the week. So Denver might also be one of my stay away teams a little bit right now.

I just like San Francisco plus money. So your favorite bet of the week is? DeAndre Swift overs once I can get him. Like I said, the props aren't out. But Detroit plus five and a half. I think that team is going to dominate the Vikings in the offensive trenches. And they're going to have a nice walk in the park on the offensive side of the ball. So your poison ivy parlay is Swift rushing yard over with the Lions plus five and a half.

I don't know. I don't know if I've got to call it the poison ivy parlay. I like it. The poison ivy parlay wins. Now you've got a gimmick. We can put little poisonison Ivy leaves over there. Absolutely. Yeah, I can draw Poison Ivy real good now. I know exactly what it looks like.

And then Mahomes, what was the Solak same game again? Yeah, so if you're looking at Chiefs to cover five and a half, Mahomes over 300 yards and Kelsey over 80 receiving yards, you're looking at about five to one. Okay. Great stuff. All right. Ben Solak, stay away from that poison ivy

good to see you absolutely thanks Bill Million Dollar Picks week three I won $305,000 last week

I'm down $398,000 for the season we're going to be in the positive this week got some help from my conciliaries Benjamin Solak Peter Schrager here's what we came up with

I like week three got to be honest this might be the parlay of the year it's a road parlay Peter Schrager. Here's what we came up with. I like week three. Got to be honest. This might be the parlay of the year. It's a road parlay. The Bills at the Dolphins just to win. Chiefs at the Colts just to win. Put that together. It's minus 107. The Bills undervalued at this point. They might go 20-0. I don't know what's going to happen with them. You think the Dolphins couldn't stop the Ravens last week? They're going to stop Josh Allen? Give me a break. Even if they could make some points, I think the Bills still win that. And then the Colts, they are one of the four worst teams in the league. They're in the bottom two in

DVOA, playing this Chiefs team coming off 10 days rest. I believe in the Chiefs anyway. I picked them in the Super Bowl. I think three weeks from now, there is no way you would get almost even odds on a Bills-Chiefs parlay, really against anyone in the league. So we were grabbing this. We were putting $350,000 on Chiefs-Bills money line parlay, minus 107. Straight up bets, 250,000 each on the following. Vegas at Tennessee, minus one at Vegas. They're 0-2. They could easily be 2-0. Tennessee is, by DVOA standards, one of the worst two teams in the league. I don't see anything I like from Tennessee.

I like Vegas for a little bounce back. Shake that little Kyler Murray stink off you and take it. So we got that, and we have Atlanta is minus one at Seattle. Man, like a lot of the road teams this week, but home field doesn't really matter unless you're playing Philly or Kansas City or maybe

Minnesota, a couple places. But Atlanta, minus one against Seattle. A Seattle team that played one good half in week one, barely held on, shouldn't have beaten Denver, and they did at the end of week one. Then week two, they should have been shut out against the Rams.

Special teams was the only touchdown they had. And I think Atlanta's like legitimately frisky. They can move the ball. I think they can come from behind. And I think they're going to lay it on Seattle. So Atlanta minus one,

we're taking them. Then last but not least, another road team. It's a week of the road team. San Francisco, we're going against Nant Hack at PI. I put them on my do not bet list. I've changed my mind.

Riding Jimmy G. I just think San Francisco's a better team. I think this line should be three. San Francisco at Denver, it's only minus one and a half. Grabbing it. I think the Niners, I like them to win the NFC at 17 to one. I think that's the best value as well. So grabbing those three. And then last but not least, a hundred thousand each on Detroit plus five and a half against the Vikings, a game that could win outright, especially if they can run the ball. Ben Solak laid out the Deandre Swift case earlier, Jacksonville plus seven at the chargers in LA chargers.

Don't have a home field advantage. Jags second and DVO way, Trevor Lawrence, things coming together. This could be what I feel like this is whoever has the ball last game. And then finally, Carolina. I can't quit you, Carolina. You've burned me two weeks. You're the reason we're in the hole. You're the reason that we are minus 398 right now is because you didn't take care of business. I'm going back to the well. At this

point, I might as well Ponzi scheme it. Just bet Carolina every week until they cover. This week, I like them though. They're plus three at home against the Saints. Jameis has fractures in his back. Their offense looked a nep last week. And I think Carolina's do. So we're throwing them in there as well. And then we have some underdog parlays for you too.

We have three of them. Three underdog parlays. We are 0-3 this season in underdog parlays. Last year, we crushed it. And I think the luck's going to change. Putting 33K on Jacksonville adjusted line plus 7.5 with Carolina money line. That is plus 302. Putting 33K on Jacksonville to beat the Chargers in Detroit to beat Minnesota.

Both those things have to happen. Plus 899, almost nine to one odds on that. And then last but not least, Carolina to win, Detroit to win. And that is a crisp plus 582. So we're putting 33 in all three of these. And then last but not least, the Solak same game parlay, Mahomes to throw over 300 yards. Kelsey over 80 receiving yards. And Chiefs minus five and a half. Five to one odds. So we're going to put 33K on that as well. We'll see which one.

FanDuel loves to boost. We lost our boost last week, but it was great value. Jefferson to score and the Vikings to win last week. They'll boost something again. I'll tweet about it over the weekend and see what they boosted. But those are the million dollar picks for a very successful week three. All right. That's it over the weekend and see what they boosted. But those are the million dollar picks for a very successful week three. All right, that's it for the podcast.

Thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to Ben Solak. Thanks to Kyle Crane for producing. Thanks to Steve Cerruti and Dylan Berkey as well. And if you want to follow the Celtics situation as it keeps developing over the weekend, check out Off the Pike with Brian Barrett. I will see you on this podcast on Sunday. Feelings within On the wayside

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