The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Crazy Good NBA Rookie Class With J. Kyle Mann, Plus Tua’s Cleveland Adventure, and NFL Week 7 Picks With Joe House

Episode Date: October 17, 2025

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by J. Kyle Mann to react to the NBA rookie class in the preseason (2:55). Then, Joe House joins to make their Ringer 107 picks for the week (39:22). Host: Bill... Simmons Guests: J. Kyle Mann and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Get Gameday Deals all season long only on Uber Eats. Order Now. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to by Fandall Sportsbook. We are also brought to by The Ringer podcast Network. New rewatchable is coming on Monday. Last one for Redford Month. It is a quiz show, an awesome movie nominated for an Oscar. Brian Coppulman has been requesting it for at least five years. So he's finally getting his wish, doing it with Coppulman. That will be on Monday.
Starting point is 00:00:21 If you missed sneakers last Monday, a really, really fun one. Broke down Ben Kingsley's running for a good five minutes. So if you want Ben Kingsley running takes, get ready because I had them. So you got that. And then Sunday night, Prestige TV, final episode of task. Right after it ends, you can listen or watch to me and Rob Mahoney and Joanne Robinson break down everything we thought about not only the final episode, but the season itself. I am in Boston, Massachusetts right now. It's cold.
Starting point is 00:00:55 I feel like a wuss because I grew up here on the East Coast. I spent my first 32 years here. Now when I come back and it's cold and windy, I'm just freezing the whole time. I've really, I've incorporated this into some of my sports gambling, particularly with one game we're going to talk about later with Joe House. When you go from the warm weather, the cold, this is why I moved to Southern California.
Starting point is 00:01:15 When I come back, I just feel like a wist every time. Anyway, great to be back. First, Jay Kyle, man, he's coming on to talk about rookies because we talked about a little in the over-under podcast, but not enough. I feel like we needed a whole segment talking about how great this rookie class is. So that's first. Then Joe House comes on. We're doing our over-unders post-mortem.
Starting point is 00:01:36 And then after that, Ringer 107, that includes our single favorite game of the 2025 slate so far. So that is all next. Let's take a break. And then ProJap. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by Fandul. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. Fandul is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live,
Starting point is 00:01:58 your way so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast. It's easy to use and best of all. When you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts recently. Guess what I did? Use Fando. Super fun. Download the Fando app or go to fandole.com. Go to fandole.com to get started. Must be 21 plus president select states, 18 plus in D.C., Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get him, problem. Call win a hundred gambler. Visit RG.org.org.com. Call 88879-777. seven or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, taping this late Thursday afternoon, East Coast time. I'm on my second coffee today.
Starting point is 00:03:01 Dunkin' Donuts, not a sponsor. I don't think they've ever, I don't know why. I don't know how much Dunkin' Donuts I need to drink before they sponsor something. But anyway, Dunkin' Donuts. You think by now, I mean, seriously. I mean, it makes sense. Those ungrateful jerks, they should, something. I should have the Dunkin' Donuts studio by now.
Starting point is 00:03:18 Instead, I have the Aspiration Dome in my backhouse now. Aspiration Studios. Jay Kyle, man. Nobody knows more about the draft classes and the rookies. And I mentioned this on Tuesday's pod that I really love the rookies this year. And it's so different than last year. And we did a little Dylan Harper stuff and we did some flag stuff, obviously, and some Cidiple. But I really wanted deep dive.
Starting point is 00:03:41 I thought this was worth an entire segment. I want to start with Harper as the second pick. I talked about him Tuesday that he just jumped out of the TV to me immediately. Like, holy shit, this guy's ready to be something now. uh size hit the body the lefty real patience already um seems like he could play off the ball or with the ball and i was just blown away and i don't know whether that was too small of a sample size but what did you see with uh dylan arper well watching him in this context and we can get to ace bayley i guess in a little bit too it's a similar thing is that they they've just played in a crowded
Starting point is 00:04:18 elevator offense last year at ruckers i didn't even blame the coach i didn't blame any of those people they had a they had major roster turnover that was super heavy and none of their teammates really drew any respect so the thing that popped to me immediately when i'm watching dylan uh in this first in these first few games is just he he had a play where he had a he got a back cut for a wide open layup and i was surprised they didn't call time out and just be like dylan that's what a wide open layup off of a cut feels like like right he had to enjoy this savor this he had to be because i you just didn't i was looking back at his his synergy stats i was like He never got wide open cuts.
Starting point is 00:04:54 And, you know, Ace was always playing in the crowd, too. So I think he's probably enjoying that. But there's a little bit of some of these guys who are like crazy, crazy downhill talents. You mentioned his poise in the paint. Number one, I don't think that I was thinking back about it. I was like, I don't think that I have watched a more talented scoring guard with like poise in the paint since probably Shea and 18. Like, Shea was just a layup monster.
Starting point is 00:05:21 And I think Dylan is, Dylan's a little bit different in that Shea was a little more angular, slithery. He's added some of that physical stuff. You know, the big shoulder bumps. I don't want to piss up OKC fans. But, you know, that stuff he's developed. But Dylan already kind of plays that way. He's really, really physical. And they already had some plays where he was, he wasn't even cutting. He was almost catching it like he was on like a jet sweep. And he'd get into the lane. And he's so physical. And Wimby draws so many eyes that you can already just kind of see, you know, will he. he'd be able to knock down open jumpers? You know, that'll be a thing. But he's going to be able to roam and add a lot of value even if he's not there, like, primary, even if he doesn't get a whole lot of primary, you know, point guard reps for them. Yeah, I think the overthink for me this summer was just thinking about the right roster around Wembe. And all right, now you have Fox and Castle and Harper. None of those guys are knocked down shooters. And that was kind of the glass half empty. And then you watch all those guys with Wemby now and you're just like, holy shit. Athletes and just like blue chippers, right? And the thing, I think the thing I didn't
Starting point is 00:06:29 really fully think about with Harper was how ready he was athletically. Because we've seen guards come in and either they're skinny in that first year, even somebody like Kate. I thought Kate had, I know his teams were bad, but he also seemed pretty choppy. Like we had some actual questions about, huh, what is this? Is this somebody who could be an awesome lead ball handler? Harper, My questions were, can he shoot, can he play off the ball? It's just clear he's going to be on the court for them. And I actually think they're going to have a pretty interesting numbers problem for them with Fox and with Castle and with Harper. They're going to be able to juggle those minutes, but they have more guys after that.
Starting point is 00:07:05 So I think, like, ceiling-wise, that's why we all went, two of us went over on the Spurs, House went under, but I went way over. I really feel like if he's going to be able to give them 28 to 30 minutes a game, maybe that's too high. maybe, let's say 25, whatever. Somewhere in that 25 to 30, but at a high level, that's like, they just didn't have anybody like that last year. Is there a decent chance that they're the best team in Texas this year? I mean, I don't remember what you guys. I think it's in play.
Starting point is 00:07:33 Yeah. We talked about the division odds for them and about how Houston is like up here at 52. Now, we got to talk about Reed quickly because I watched some preseason with him two nights ago, and he's just firing now. He's like, Van Blee, it's gone. I'm fucking firing. and the bench was really into it and there was a little different demeanor
Starting point is 00:07:53 to him and so that made me a little worried about my under but yeah I think the ceiling of San Antonio with Wembe if he's a top five guy Houston is not going to have a top five guy right so if the pieces around him are good I don't know I think they're going to be really hard to play you have that many athletes plus you have rim protection
Starting point is 00:08:12 plus you have some size you can bring him with him now they have a lot of answers Wimby is just flat out distracting When you're trying to watch, I was like trying to watch the rookie. Any game you watch with him on there, I sent you a clip of, he was like in a ball scler or in a handoff in that jazz game. And he was on the other side of the screen defender on the other side of Nurkich. And he just reached into the frame and stripped the ball off of, I guess it was Ace. And Ace had this look like, what just happened? He's just, yeah, he's just a ridiculous distraction. But yeah, I think it's very much in play that they're going to be. be so athletic on the perimeter, man. And in terms of, you know, thinking about their roster for Dylan, if you're in this position, and this was the argument that I made at the time was just, I'm just thinking of it simply like, does, if I have a chance to get a player, a talent like Dylan, does he fit with Wemme? That was all. I was like, I'll figure out everything else later.
Starting point is 00:09:08 Right. Do I have these two guys, I can figure out the other 10 later? Yeah. Yeah. So my answer is already he fits in. Yeah. I mean, it's just, I think the thing with guys who have the ball in their hands is you always kind of have to start from this first. The square one is like, are you going to be hurried? You know, and I know you like Yakuchana, I did too. I'm sure we'll talk about him. But that was something at like Summer League, you know, guys like, guys that come into the league who are very used to hitting first, you know, like Luca is like the all-time example of he came in and he was like, yeah, I'm going to punch everyone first. Yeah. Dylan is the same kind of thing. It's just like he never seems hurried around the basket. And he's just really
Starting point is 00:09:47 angular and clever. I was noticing, too, he has some of that. You see some of those guys shoot layups, like high glass layups off the wrong foot. Dylan does this thing where he'll go wrong footed and wrong handed and he'll get under and just kind of get away from guys. He's just really sneaky and really crafty. And the great thing for them is that they don't have to put a ton of pressure on him to, like, they can really bring him along slowly and get all the value without getting the waste that might come with like dumping too much on him too early. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the crafty because I think that's the thing. that really resonated with me.
Starting point is 00:10:18 They had one play. It was, I mean, and granted, it's preseason, who cares. But he won't play where he was on the ball on the right side and he's a lefty, right? And he kind of went baseline and did this kind of herky jerky, back and forth thing, got lower to the rim. They did more herky jerky and then finally got a shot off. And I was like, wow, this kid's like 19. Like, that seemed like a move you make when you're like 26.
Starting point is 00:10:41 I feel like I probably underrated last June how important it was that they got the number two pick because it was so weird with the records thing was and I know you guys you talked about you and Tate talked about it nonstop like the records thing was so weird it was almost like the ceiling in the basement you couldn't even come up with what it was because it was like that was just too weird but clearly like when you talk about guards coming in the league and being good right away who have the ball a lot it's pretty unique you know and then the other thing is if castle goes up a notch now you're talking about okay And they have all these trade pieces.
Starting point is 00:11:18 So I'm with you. To me, like them versus Houston, I think it's a lot closer than the odds. They have their eight wins lower with the overrunners in Houston. I think it's way closer than that. Yeah. Houston, I mean, Houston has a little experience on them in a couple spots. But I'm sure, you know, the Amman love, and I'm right along with everybody else. I mean, I love watching Amman Thompson.
Starting point is 00:11:38 I mean, play him at center. That's why I'm thinking about it. But like, he, I'm sure Steph Castle was over there thinking, I got something for this guy. you know, I'm sure he's like, I was the rookie of the year, you know, it's just been interesting how big of a gap there's been. And, you know, like Castle brings a lot of the playmaking stuff too. It's just interesting what the shadow of Wimby affords them on offense and defense. Like I was watching that Miami game. And there was a play, there was a particular play where Wimby, he was doing his thing where he causes big guys just like, you know, look up and go, no, I'm not going to do that. And you could just see all of the other guys on the perimeter just, basically become free safeties who have like five steps on the ball. So like there was one where I think it was like, it might be Calell Ware was just stuck. And Calell Ware is gigantic. I don't have you ever seen him in person. And he was like, I mean, I can't go up with this. So he turns and looks and you could just see that I can't remember who intercepted the past or the spurs. But he just
Starting point is 00:12:36 had an easy run to go intercepted. So they just have a lot of, you know, having Wimby just changes the conversation in a lot of different ways. Yeah. Yeah, that's a really good point. Because then the other piece of that is when you have Wemby behind you, you can gamble way more and be way more aggressive 25 feet from the basket because you have some sort of protection. They're down to plus 370 to win the division. I still think, I think that. Mav's six to one's probably a reach with how long Kyrie's out. But yeah, I think that division's a little more open. The other thing I'll say with Harper, and this is like, whatever, this is a classic Bill Simmons ridiculous point. He carries himself like a star and you just like you kind of notice him immediately there's certain guys like
Starting point is 00:13:19 that where you just see him walking around and there's for a 19 year old like he's handsome he's filled out already and it just i felt the same way about uh about Thompson on Houston yeah which i was like I don't know about these guys and then you kind of watch him on a court and it's like oh yeah that guy's got it and you just kind of sometimes there's just these guys they're like oh yeah that guy's got it and the way he carries himself he's in this weird situation right he's not starting point card he's on wemby's team you would think he would be like a little but he's not he's not like that at all he's cool so uh that and then we didn't even talk about flag yet when we're talking about rookies jumping like flag flag as uh as this uh all-purpose swiss army knife what do we need guys
Starting point is 00:14:01 oh davis isn't playing a knife fine i'll play power for it oh should i just play point guard tonight um i don't even know how you could assign a dollar value to what he brings in as a guy in a rookie contract. But this is what he's doing. He's like a max contract guy, basically, but they got him for, you know, 1.8% odds in the lottery. Unbelievable. He's just ready to roll right off the, right off the assembly line. I mean, I got to the point around the draft where I reached this point where I was like thinking about this fall. And I was like, well, you know, blah, blah, and I was just like, what am, what are you talking about? Like, I was just like, what, like, every single step of the way and I've done a few shows with Mavs people and I and I'm just trying to just
Starting point is 00:14:45 give them an idea of maybe what's coming from from having watched him in high school and stuff and it's like he just he's not stagnant in any way shape or form every single step of the way and I was like I'm just done underestimating him and you know you're talking about he has a little ways to go in terms of like his setup moves and get into the basket but he's also very clever and crafty about the things that he does know how to do if you watch him he's really good at like giving a bump with his back and then turn it in face and he just doesn't dance a lot with the ball wastefully his shot looks good he came off of a couple like a shot looks really good yeah he came off a couple of uh like i don't think of flex or whatever type of screen it was but he was moving you know
Starting point is 00:15:22 left to right and hit a hit a great shot but you just watch him it's the same kind of thing too as harper is um they played a lineup their lineups are going to be really really interesting they played a lineup that was like Cooper, Dilo, Clay, P.J, and lively. And it was there, because the Hornets went ahead on their first unit, if I'm not mistaken, and they put in that lineup, and they just surge back.
Starting point is 00:15:43 And it was just really fun for a minute, you know, and say what you want about Dilo. If you control him, I loved all the stuff you said, and I'm with you on it, but it's like if you can kind of control what Dilo is, Cooper is already mature enough to kind of guide an offense like that. So, yeah. It's a little like
Starting point is 00:15:59 Zion, right, where there's going to be situations where it's like, I guess we're playing him at center. I guess he's our point card now. He's going to be all over the map. The one thing I've noticed from watching him at Duke last year to even in the preseason stuff, it feels like he's more sophisticated offensively
Starting point is 00:16:15 with some stuff like going, going to the basket, shooting, you know, like shooting off like the wrong foot, some of the explosive stuff. Like it just feels like he's added some stuff to his bag that I wasn't positive he'd have. He just
Starting point is 00:16:31 He felt way more closer to Tatum than I was expecting. I'm not talking about Tatum last year before the injury when he was one of the best four players in the league, but probably like year two, year three, Tatum when he was just starting to put together some off, you know, some dribbling, dribble move to the basket stuff. First year he was like basically in the corner, just we were basically begging him to take the ball. Then he started adding stuff. Flagg offensively seems like he's like where year three Tatum was, which I was really
Starting point is 00:17:00 surprised by it, but did you notice that? I mean, he's very, he and Tatum are on different paths with like, I think that, and I've thought this for a while, that Cooper is ahead of him in terms of his like spatial sense and his passing and things like that, but I think that Tatum was a little wigglier with a live dribble
Starting point is 00:17:18 at the same age. So it's just kind of like they're coming from different spots. And it may be 20 inches. And at 25 years old, you know, maybe they'll end up at a similar spot. But I just like, I like all the different ways they can use him um he gets a little he did get a little he got a he did this at summer league too where there were a couple times where you could tell he was really enjoying the show and i'd
Starting point is 00:17:39 never seen him do that before at summer league he was kind of like looking around you know all the players are on the front row he makes a couple risky passes and plays he threw a couple behind the back passes in that preseason game granted preseason summer league they're both kind of unserious you're experimenting you're tinkering things like that but um he made a couple of plays like that. I was like, what, what exactly is he doing there? But I don't know, man. I just don't put anything past him anymore. Like, I think he's, he plays within himself. He's just a right play machine. He's also a really smart, you know, the defensive stuff is translated immediately too. So, and the competitiveness is almost crazed. Like, he's trying in these preseason
Starting point is 00:18:19 games where you're like, dude, settle down. Yeah, the reason about up Tatum, what do you think he averaged in year two for the South Explain, 31.1 minutes a game? Oh, that's tough. How many points in game do you think he had? What, that would have been, 17, 18, 18, 19? No, 18, 19, second year. God. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:18:38 15? Yeah, 15.7. Good guess. And he was making one and a half threes a game, 45% field goal, and 2.9 free throws a game. And then year three, that 2020 season, that ended up getting stopped by COVID. But that was when all of a sudden the free throws are close.
Starting point is 00:18:57 to 5, 23.4 points a game. Flag seems close, at least like a little ahead of year two, Tatum, but not where year three Tatum is yet. And he's not going to have the same size, but he's a maniac. And as you said, he's like our, Tatum always had a question of like the, is when he's going to learn to make the right play?
Starting point is 00:19:17 What's going to have, what's he going to do? And then he finally started unlocked that as the 2020s one along. And then last year, I thought he was really good with that stuff. Flag seems like he has it immediately. I think this Mavs roster, there's just some funny, ironic stuff going on with the fact that they have this insane collection of like elite play finishers. You know, Gafford and AD and lively are all elite or borderline elite lob threats.
Starting point is 00:19:43 Clay is one of the best catching soup. I was thinking today, I was like, it's kind of like that episode of the Twilight Zone where the guy has all the books but no glasses. It's like they have, he has this insane like resources and assets at his disposal. and it's like they just, if they just had Kyrie, it's like where are they going to bend and warp the defense with some of these bigger lineups? That's why they could pop so much when they had Delo in there because AD might have one of the bigger questions
Starting point is 00:20:08 of just kind of like how it's not necessarily naturally implied like the lively AD and Gafford thing. How's that going to balance out? Because they can put some lineups out there that could be pretty interesting. Yeah, ironically, AD feels like he could be trade bait to get something and they'd probably be a little more theme. But I like, the way they are, they're such a weird team. I think they're going to be really hard to play. And then having flag, just be able to guard dudes in the perimeter. And it's already
Starting point is 00:20:37 like incredible to watch him on defense, fighting over screens, jumping through. Like, he's already one of the, you know, one of the higher end defenders we have. Uh, edgecombe, neither of us have watched, right? You haven't seen a lot of edgecombe. Yeah. Yeah, I think that, I think we're fine with that because it seems like he's going to be an energy guy the first year. Caniple. Let's do it. And the Hornets in general, because there's a couple other rookies on that team, too, including Kalkbrenner, who seems like he's going to play like real men. What pick was he?
Starting point is 00:21:08 Oh, did he, he was, I don't know what off the top of my head, but he was like, 303, I think. He was real, yeah, he was, I think early second round. That dude's going to play actual minutes. Yeah, yeah. I'm not surprised by that. I mean, I do, I do think that, like, in a really competitive scenario, he's probably your, like, rotation big but I mean this team he's in 40 minutes a game center
Starting point is 00:21:31 because they don't have any centers. Well Rob and I were talking about this last night and I was like they they threw some lineups out there they threw out a Bridges Lamello Miller Kahn and I think I think Colt Brenner might have been out there but it was
Starting point is 00:21:44 the ball was humming I mean it was Lamello I was joke about this on Twitter that like well first I was say I was telling Rob I was like I think this is going to be one of my league past teams because it's just they're just absurd I'm in And, but, uh, Rob was like, well, that he was just like, dude, that front court is just one of the worst. And it's true. It's going to be, they are going to hemorrhage easy points like on the glass. They're not going to, they're going to have a heart. They're just going to give up a lot of easy points. But Lamello, man, I mean, he just, I go back and forth between, you know, I've defended him a lot. Last night I was watching. I wrote down it. I literally wrote in my notes, the Hornets should find a way to trade Lamello. And then he just rattles off five plays that no one else can make. So it's just kind of that team, and it kind of makes you wonder if Kahn, I would love to give a lie detector test to some of Lamello's teammates because Kahn's used to play in a very regimented, like, right play, we do this. This is the sensible, this level of wildness, I would be curious.
Starting point is 00:22:41 He's in a freelance jazz band now. Basically. I agree with you. I think they're going to be an amazing league past team. And I like their four. I don't really care who the fifth guy is. I think the four will be fun to watch. I have no idea if they'll get stops.
Starting point is 00:22:54 And Kniepo is who he thought he was. Like he's in the right spots. It's a dangerous three-point shooter already. He rebounds. They're going to actually need him to rebound. So no surprises. We were all in on him. Ace Bailey was a surprise to me.
Starting point is 00:23:07 And we talked about this a little on Tuesday, but the size and the ease that he's getting his points. I don't know if he's going to be able to do anything else, but it seems like him and then Trey Johnson, ironically, who taken right after him, those guys are just going to be able to score immediately, which is... No small thing for rookies.
Starting point is 00:23:29 Rookies don't just come in and throw up like 25 in their third game, like especially at the non-point guard or like the small forward, whatever ACEs, I don't even know. But any surprises with ACE other than what you already said about the telephone booth thing. Yeah, I mean, it's just he's coming in and this is that these are the things we knew he could do. I mean, if he has space and you let him catch and shoot, this was that this was this was the case at Rutgers. he's gonna score man i mean like he just he didn't have the space and he didn't have the scheme
Starting point is 00:23:59 to do that i mean i'm sure that uh i'm sure that will hardy knew immediately what to do with him and that he comes out there and you know the the other thing for me too is um i mean you were talking about comparing him like the early kd i think that's everybody's temptation usually i've heard people say like richard lewis i like that i probably should have included that but he's a little more like an mpj type of run something for him let him be a shot maker granted Anytime he dribbles the ball, I think he had one play where he tried to attack a close-out.
Starting point is 00:24:28 His just awareness of help and things like that, it's just a little ways away. He's just not quite ready to do that kind of stuff. Can we agree this is the perfect team for him? Although I guess they don't have the right kind of point guard to set him up.
Starting point is 00:24:40 Are the jazz a perfect team in any way? Well, just like he's going to play minutes and get shots and make mistakes. Yeah, for sure. And they have a lot to gain by him even being wacky and, you know, letting loose and being messy. And I was going to say,
Starting point is 00:24:54 Another thing, too, is that I think Walter Clayton Jr. might be better than Keonté George, like, right now. I'm sure. I was like, I bet he was watching Summer League and being like, fuck. He's just, he just looks really smooth and steady out there. He's probably older. Is he older? He might be older than he. He might be. I mean, he's like 23. But he's, you know, I like him. But yeah, with Ace, I mean, everything that he does is just his superpower is the one step thing. And that's what I was saying going up to the draft. It's like, if he has a step to go after a chase down block, he'll do something incredible. If he is a step to go catch a lob, it's just, if he has the room to show off that athleticism, if you let him jump and get to his shot, he's going to make it.
Starting point is 00:25:30 So, yeah, he's going to have some moments this year. I wasn't surprised. Well, all we care about is whether somebody's a fun league pass team when they're a non-playoff team. And in that case, I will test them out multiple times and try it out. We'll see how it goes. Trey Johnson, too, just house is all in already. He's just a professional score. So fears at number seven.
Starting point is 00:25:52 that one worried me a little like he he's definitely they're definitely giving the car keys and have him you know he's who knows it's early but uh that one i don't know that seemed pretty high for him at number seven and especially it does feel like there's like a distinct drop off between those first six guys in the seventh pick and i don't know if he makes or not but do you see anything with him uh nothing that really like i mean for me watching him in the first couple preseason games and watching him, you know, in Summer League, it was like, you see all the positive. It's, it's just in a serious game. I mean, like, he can get to spots. He's very fast. He's, you know, has, he's a pretty good lob throw. It's just, is he going to be able to shoot
Starting point is 00:26:35 pull of threes? Is he going to get mercilessly picked on on defense? Because, you know, that threshold is pretty, pretty cruel, no matter how good you are. And then, but I was going through, you know, early in the season, you do this thing where the first, you try not to overreact to the first couple returns because fears for somebody I was lower on. I think I had him in the 20s and then because of those things. And I'm just kind of going line by line and I'm like, I had him kind of low, didn't I? But then you just look and you're like, all these guys are kind of showing signs that they're going to be good. Yeah. And even Young Hanson for Portland, that was one that I was lower on. It might ultimately be just like a lot of people got dup by the lack of information. And Portland
Starting point is 00:27:15 just had a crazy advantage with the tape because apparently the tape was just really hard to get on Yang and it was really limited on synergy, so you kind of had to be a detective and go get that stuff. But yeah, this class is looking like it's going to be good. I mean, you don't want to overreact, but it's looking good. The fears problem, that's been a bus type of profile, right? Those guards that they don't have a ton of size, they're fast, but like what's their, what's their calling card? So we'll see with him. Just sim and through, I saw Yang. I called them Yang for the entire Overners podcast. I'll get it down. But he's, he's clearly... something yeah yeah i don't know what he is but it's like i just signed me up for more um
Starting point is 00:27:57 Clayton looks like he's going to play right away and then uh this barringer on on Minnesota seems like he might actually play and fits the profile of somebody who succeeds on a winning team right long energy athletic rim runner shop walker don't ask him do anything else but they kind of I kind of needed a guy like that. So I feel like he's going to play. And he, and oh, and then we watched a little Malioch on a Malayok, Malayach. Malawach. Malawach.
Starting point is 00:28:30 Yeah. We watched some of him on Tuesday night. And it was interesting because he was playing against DeAndre Aiton. And they're kind of very similar bodies and just like he's, it was funny. Like they got rid of DeAndre Aitin so they could basically take the next Dandre Aitin. But he really tries and he can second jump, which I think when he looks at, at somebody on that size, if you had that one jump and then kind of the plays over for you as other side, like he was able to get back up. So there's something there. I liked him in
Starting point is 00:29:00 college, but I thought he fit in an NBA game. Have you seen him? Yeah. I mean, my worries with him kind of started. I've worried about some of these faster bigs, like jumping, get into the ball quicker than him. I think for him it's going to be a question of just learning how to like wager in a smart way whenever he's like in, you know, in space with a really fast player, like learning how to stay down and let his length just be his strength because the more he like goes for things um i mean brookelopez mastered that there's a lot of guys who have he's a smart kid i could see him doing that but uh but yeah um he's i mean he's even bigger than aton right i mean i think he's uh he's longer than eight and i'm pretty positive like kind of a little longer but they're
Starting point is 00:29:40 on the same size yeah uh the only other guys i wanted to mention and then you tell me who your favorite random guy was. There might be something there with Jace Richardson. And I didn't have him on my bingo car, but I'm just, I'm kind of monitoring that one because he's unlike anybody they have in that roster, but I'm just intrigued to see if he plays. And then Gonzalez on the Celtics, you know, they keep throwing darts at the board of these athletic wings who can't really shoot, but really try hard, right?
Starting point is 00:30:12 They kind of failed with Jordan Walsh. Gonzalez, I think they've been impressed by and I think he's shooting a little better than they thought and he's like an absolute maniac. I mean, he's actually crazed and I'm wondering if he might play but those were the two that jumped out.
Starting point is 00:30:27 Who's jumped out for you at post lottery? I was going to say the Gonzalez thing. I was going to second that. Everything that I've heard from them is a lot of enthusiasm. Yeah, like they're really, really loving him that I think they saw his upside as higher than consensus. And he is a maniac. He kind of reminds me of
Starting point is 00:30:45 that just like pesky, annoying, high-motored guy that, like, OKC would take. And there's been some, I mean, we've talked about it before that, like, OKC and Boston have some overlap in their personnel preferences that you've kind of been able to see. But, yeah, I mean, I really liked him a lot. Neat Clifford
Starting point is 00:31:01 is a guy that I've gone to bat for, and I don't know, I mean, the, you know, if the Kings were going to, if you were going to just siphon any little positive thing for the Kings, it's that I really do like Clifford. And I think Keegan Murray's good, obviously, and I do think that Devin Carter is going to be worth keeping around. I think those
Starting point is 00:31:17 three guys, I was joking about when Clifford was playing well, it's going to be the shame when Sacramento punts him for, like, Coominga in January, but let's hope they don't do that. But he just looks like an adult out there. He can come at you from a lot of different ways. He can really pass the ball. He's
Starting point is 00:31:35 a really good movement shooter. I just think he's going to be able to play for them really quickly. Well, now he gets to lose from learn from Russell Westbrook. I could not believe that. He gets to learn how to lead a team. Great mentorship in store here for him. And then, oh, the Nets is the last thing.
Starting point is 00:31:56 Have you watched them? Yeah, yeah. The rookie smorgasbark. Did anybody jump out? I mean, Wolf actually looked better in the preseason games than he looked in Summer League. To me, you know, the impression that I've gotten is that they feel pretty good about the shooting upside of Demand when he comes back. back. And then, but, but Wolf, Wolf looked really comfortable. He had one play, I think,
Starting point is 00:32:18 where he was attacking Drew U-Banks. I mean, I might as well stick with it. I had him pretty high. I had him higher than Malawatch. I think, I think I had him 13 and Malawatch 14. But, no, I mean, he, he attacked the basket at one point and, uh, to the right and came back to his left, and then shot like a lefty, soft, left-handed shot in the lane. It's just all these Brooklyn guys, man. I mean, if you want to talk about like the shooting challenge of a lifetime. I mean, they drafted four guys who like to be on the ball, and they all are questionable shooters. So I guess if you get maybe one or two out of the four, that can get to the point where they make a shot, but the team, I agreed with you all from the O'Runner
Starting point is 00:32:55 pot. I mean, it's just, it's just an abject disaster. All right, that's our preseason rookie blink test. I guess the big headlines are Harper and Flagg, specifically, like, really as a combo might be a pretty special to-sum to get two guys in a, a draft to have a chance, I think both of them have first team all NBA potential. Flag probably is safer bet, but Harper, definitely. I mean, and you think like San Antonio putting him with Wemby together and just that being your foundation, like you're pretty good if you can keep Wembe on the court. But in general, this draft seems like really like a possible A plus draft, right?
Starting point is 00:33:36 I think so, man. When we're talking about 21st century drafts, like this is, I think it's going to be one of the storylines of the year. Did you, what about Yakuchonis, though? I thought for sure you would, did you, did you have any kind of takeaways on him? I mean, I went all in. He had one bad Summer League game and everybody made fun of me. And guess what?
Starting point is 00:33:55 I'll be vindicated because that guy went seven picks later than he should have and it was fucking stupid. And I don't know how Miami pulled that one off. But yeah, he's, he is who he thought he was. He's fun to play with. He's going to be really devastating in picking roles. And I think he's going to play right away for them. I don't know, with this hero being out for 25 games, 30 games, they're actually, he might actually get real minutes for them.
Starting point is 00:34:19 And we're going to find out almost right. He's going to get thrown in the fire. If you're talking about throwing in the fire guys, he's probably one of the few that a team's actually going to need, I think, especially if Roger, I guess it's just whatever the hell happened with him. Yeah. But he looked like he had real chemistry with Ware when he was out there. It's just kind of like, it's, you know,
Starting point is 00:34:39 you want to say the Pajimski thing because he, He's got the reddish, blondish hair. You want to do like the aesthetic bias thing where you're like, now that looks like that. He's a better pass for them. He's, he's. It's close. They're both pretty creative.
Starting point is 00:34:50 I don't think it's a ding on either one of them to say, like, you know, they're both kind of in the same. But he's going to be dared to shoot, but he's young. I don't, you know, if you're riding him really hard as your primary guy, I think you're going to come away frustrated. But if he's just kind of moving within the teeth of their offense and, and he's got good hands on defense, too, I don't know. I think he's just going to be a nice rotation guy for them.
Starting point is 00:35:10 You know, so... All right, before we go, give us 45 seconds on why Reed Shepard is the X factor of the 2025-26 season. Because this was your guy. You were all in on him being good. You know, as another white guy who's 6'1 and from Kentucky, I felt like, yeah. I took a personal interest in Reed Shepard. Shocker there, but... You threw the name Mark Price around, was thrown around at some point.
Starting point is 00:35:34 You threw a couple big names around with him last year. I did. I don't think he's as wiggly, like, as a pull-up shoot. as Price, I think that was off, but I think he's more of a, I wrote something before the season started where I was just talking about how they might use him. People are just assuming he's just going to be pounding the ball all the way up there at the top. I think if they have him be super, super aggressive with his shot, just start with that proposition. And then if he doesn't have a shot initially, he's running off screens and things like that, you just, I know
Starting point is 00:36:04 they want him like three point attempts is a great stat for them. They're not as obsessed with the makes like if he gets them up and establishes that audacity for their offense that's something that they can use and you've seen him i mean he's being hyper aggressive he's not afraid he's a really good connected passer i just think it's going to take some time before they can like really lean on him but man i yeah he's i mean he did he turned the ball over immediately twice in a row when i turned the game on the other night but he kind of he steadied the ship but that's yeah man i mean as long as he's aggressive from three and not a liability on defense i think that's that's a good starting point for them with him yeah
Starting point is 00:36:39 One thing I noticed with them, they just put them in the right corner. And you have Duran at the top and you have Thompson kind of floating around being Thompson. And then just Shepard, you just, he's just pulling the deep. You have to. You can't leave him. He's got the quick release. He'll stand up by the hash mark sometimes. They'll have him like post-stand up there like 38 feet away.
Starting point is 00:37:01 And it's like you got to take a step towards him. But yeah. He's got that rare thing where he, if he gets the pass right, he can just flick a three. The no dip. Like, he does, yeah, he, there's like five guys in the league. Like, Curry, obviously, I think he probably invented it. But there's five guys in the league who could just do the quickies. So they got that.
Starting point is 00:37:19 But anyway, I thought, I made me think, like, I wonder if they're just going to use him as an almost as an off the ball. You have to worry about this guy over here guy to basically open up the rest of the space for them. I still don't understand how their offense is going to work with, with guys who just, I don't want to say ball stoppers, but I'll say ball stoppers. I want to see who's the glue guy that that kind of combines everything is a big question I have with them. I think they'll try to go get Dinwiddie.
Starting point is 00:37:45 I feel like E-May would kill Denwitty. I can't imagine that relationship working. Yeah, I don't know. No, I mean, I think the last thing I'll say about the Rockets for you were going to give one positive, and I said this in this piece, is that I think the guys who are like making decisions
Starting point is 00:38:01 off the catch, that is one area they upgraded. If you're talking about Jalen Green and Dylan Brooks and you're talking about, like, you get Durant Durant's a better pastor. I think Shepard's a better pastor, just a little smaller. So, I mean, that's one thing that you can work with. But I think that initial, like, on-ball to off-ball toggle thing is something that he can do now. So, yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:19 All right. Come in. What's your next thing for the ringer? We're starting up draft stuff, wrapping up a gigantic project that I'm hopefully going to be able to announce soon. And then, yeah, so we're just going to start covering the college season and the rookies. Awesome. Good to see you. Thanks.
Starting point is 00:38:34 Me too. This episode is brought to by Uber Eats. Every football season, the same thing happens. The game somehow makes everybody really hungry. Quarterback scrambles clearly a sign for breakfast burritos. Yeah. Turnover, suddenly dessert at 2 p.m. doesn't sound so crazy. Wing formations.
Starting point is 00:38:53 Well, those can only mean buffalo wings, as if they're ever not in play. Even the goalposts start looking suspiciously like French fries. It's almost like football sending a message to eat more food. Yeah, the good news. Uber Eats makes those cravings easy to satisfy with game day deals all season long from wings and pizza to chips, drinks, and even last minute grocery runs.
Starting point is 00:39:14 Don't sleep on those. You'll find savings on all your favorites delivered straight to your door. Order now on Uber Eats. All right, Joe House is here. It's Thursday afternoon. I'm on the East Coast. We've already done like four and a half hours
Starting point is 00:39:27 of content this week, but just in a normal week, if our picks had been going as badly as they had been, maybe I'd just bump you for the week. Oh, House was on the NBA overrunners pot. I'll just get somebody else for this week. But we had a really good week, though.
Starting point is 00:39:41 We were for and own. Verno was the own one on our picks. Poor Bruno. Yeah, trial separation would have made sense. But buddy, when we fuck in, it's good. We have to stick with it. Yeah, we got to stick together. Let's talk NBA overunders, the aftermath really fast.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Okay. Because Fandul, I talk to them because they do the super boost every year. Yeah. And it looks like this is going to be the super boost. and they're going to be pushing this starting on Friday. Here we go. The Milwaukee Bucks, a team that you and me and Zach all agreed on
Starting point is 00:40:17 as locks at 42 and a half. Triple lock. Triple lock. 45 plus wins for the Super Boost because we needed to, we need something. Golden State 45 plus. We all were over on them at 47.5. So we're getting a whole value there.
Starting point is 00:40:32 Yeah. And then OKC, who's over under a 62 and a half wins, we all love that. That's 60 plus. So bucks 45 plus, that's going to be the hardest one. Warriors 45 plus and OKC 60 plus. That's going to be around plus 415,
Starting point is 00:40:47 plus 420 range. And with the parlay boost token, gets bumped up into the plus 535-40 range, however it nets out. So that's the boost and we need the bucks is basically how this needs to go. So the question is who's going to fuck us? You think the answer would be the bucks?
Starting point is 00:41:06 Well, that's, they would have to overachieve three wins beyond their, or two and a half wins beyond their over-under number. We think that that 45 is probably the right number, especially with some developments that we're going to see coming in the east. Yeah, we had, we had them in the four to five to six range in the east. And, you know, I was thinking about some of the picks we had after and some of the arguments we had. And like, what would be your due over?
Starting point is 00:41:34 Because for me, I think, I'm not positive. I was in the right spot with Orlando with the under. It was 50 and a half and I think I just, I had too many overs and now I'm looking at that going, why did I go under on those guys? I didn't feel good about it to begin with. I'm
Starting point is 00:41:50 queasy about Orlando. I feel like I'm not that concerned about that. It depends on 100% health. Well, why did that team with all those young guys have bad injury luck last year? Like those guys, Franz Wagner is young. Paula was young
Starting point is 00:42:05 and Suggs is young. And Suggs is not starting the season on the basketball team. Right. Well, that's why I backed up. Yeah. So I just, I don't think that we were in
Starting point is 00:42:14 the wrong direction in terms of Orlando. The one that I personally would do over is San Antonio because the way that the West is shaping up, you and Zach both went over on San Antonio.
Starting point is 00:42:24 I went under, I don't like going under based on a thesis that depends on a little bit of injury, bad luck, but I did it. But that I would do. I would do that over because I'd like to be on the side of just rooting for the spurs to be awesome
Starting point is 00:42:40 and for Wemby to be awesome all season. I thought you were going to be a coward and actually flip your pick on that. By the way, Zach did. What did he do? He added a locker. Zach had one. He did his 180 on one of his picks, which I thought was pretty funny. It's okay.
Starting point is 00:42:57 That's our first time together. Well, the biggest tragedy of our podcast, we were very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very. very, very hard on the Sacramento Kings. Very hard. Zach. Very hard. Tremendous job, Isaac Lowe. We just were carving them up. And they got spiteful and mad
Starting point is 00:43:17 and upset that we did that. And they signed Russell Westbrook the next day. And they deprived us of the ability to talk about how fucking crazy of assigning that is four over a hundred podcast. It's like, why are you doing that? That would have been five minutes of content.
Starting point is 00:43:33 How dare they? It would have been tremendous. Because they told us just suck. it. We're not giving you anything else to add to your highly, you know, inappropriate snark from their perspective. Here's the other thing they did. Kegan Murray, who's starting at season hurt. I mean, he'll come back. They gave him $140 million for five years. Oh my God. How do we miss this? Can we do the worst contracts, the NBA worst contracts next week? We do it after the all-star break every year. And I'll tell you something. Keegan submitted his resume.
Starting point is 00:44:05 for top 10. Right on first week of the season, we got a resume in. Those are my least favorite contracts when it's a guy who can't be an all-star and you're paying him basically right under that $30 million a year. Those are the ones,
Starting point is 00:44:21 like from Patrick Williams and the Bulls when they gave him $90 million for $5. Yes. That range, basically from Patrick Williams, Keegan Murray is like the fucking graveyard of bad contracts. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:32 And, you know, it's the team not having a first, conviction so they they kick the can with a shit contract and he's one of those he seems fine on paper guys yeah you watch him and you're like oh hypothetically i like them and there's some other people like this like i i probably like jabr smith more than most but jabr smith for the most part has been a hypothetical guy versus an actual guy um well this and yet at least he has size and i can't play him as a stretch five kegan i i can't just give that category a name. I think it's the
Starting point is 00:45:06 Emanuel quickly. The annual manual quickly. That's the one. That's the one. Like, that's the contract. Yeah, the Raptors have like five of these contracts. They're like tweener contracts. Yes. They're like a notch under an all-star spot.
Starting point is 00:45:21 But you could probably get somebody to make $4 million a year who could put together 85% of the same stats. That's where the issue is. That's why I didn't even like that Yoavage contract. But anyway, Yeah, so other than as we head toward opening day, I think those are the biggest NBA stories that happen.
Starting point is 00:45:42 Fun. Good stuff. Let's talk NFL. We did well last week. We were four and out. I like the slate this week. You said you only like three games. We have this new pact where we don't talk at all about the games beforehand.
Starting point is 00:45:57 So I have no idea what games you'd like. And I was just going to go through the stayaways first and stop me if any of these were your games. Okay. I don't want any part of that lion's five and a half over the bucks. Oh, interesting. Why not? Because I don't know who's playing receiver for the bucks. I don't know who's playing defense for the lions.
Starting point is 00:46:19 I don't want to bet against Baker Mayfield ever the way, the heater that he's on. But I also don't really want to bet on the bucks when I don't know who's playing. The line is in the Vegas zone for a reason, and it just felt like a stayway to me. So early in the week, I was plowing into the line. I have a ton of lions exposure. They have a tremendous record off of a loss, the combination of Dan Campbell and Jared Gough. I lost some of my enthusiasm.
Starting point is 00:46:44 I'm saying it right now. I'm not going to buy out of the position, but the Brian Branch suspension is bad. That's bad for a team with all of the injuries in the secondary. That dude is heavy lumber. And for him to be out plus the secondary, no, I do still think for the Buccaneers, this is the moment where it finally catches up with them.
Starting point is 00:47:05 But it seems like Mike Evans is practicing. I'm starting them in the fantasy league I care the most about. Also, there's two touchdown potential for them, Teo. Stop it. It's fine. It's fine. I'm not. So it went from a love for me into like a like.
Starting point is 00:47:20 And, you know, again, the Brian Branch suspension was a, I'm not going to use the word I was going to use. A bummer. Very fun game to watch. And I look forward to belatedly. doing a giant overs. Yeah, I feel like on Sunday
Starting point is 00:47:37 I'm going to do a bucks tease with the over and probably just out of pure boredom. We'll see. I think the thing that I love the best about when you are in Boston,
Starting point is 00:47:46 it's really dangerous. You, the fandal, the flow. Oh, my, my, is it dangerous or is it glorious? Why did you use the wrong
Starting point is 00:47:57 O-U-S word? In the eye of the beholder. I mean, the text that I'm getting from me, You're just sitting there firing, firing, firing. How long are you in Boston for? I'm only here for a couple days, but I, you know, the problem is I'm leaving, I'm leaving Saturday
Starting point is 00:48:14 and there's going to be some runway bets as well. Oh, I'm getting to see a couple of those. Hit the runway button. Well, the funny thing is like, we're taping this before Pittsburgh, Cincinnati today, which is just the definition of it, just stay away. It's a Thursday night. It looks like a classic bad spot for the Steelers. I don't want to bet on the Bengals,
Starting point is 00:48:33 but I'm sure I'll talk myself into something just out of pure boredom, plus there's baseball. Yeah, a little interspersing. It's great. Washington and the Cowboys in Dallas, I think, is a stay away for us. No, thank you. Please, let's stay away. I think Dallas is going to win.
Starting point is 00:48:48 Are you nervous about that game? Because that's like one of those. Are you in trouble if you lose? Play quarterback. Yeah, you're in trouble if you lose that. Incredible. The past defense for Washington is not setting the world on fire. They let Caleb Williams go,
Starting point is 00:49:01 right down the goddamn field for the game-winning field goal. I did not enjoy it. It's kind of a must-win because your next three are at Chiefs, Seattle, and then Detroit. I think we can get Seattle at home, but the other two, those are losses. Put them in the lost column now. I mean, Washington's, you know, they're going to have to battle hard to get to nine and eight and be in the playoff conversation. Are you, how worried are you on a scale one to ten about my bet that I have against
Starting point is 00:49:31 you and every other person you know who likes Washington. I already took the $500 and put it in a sock. As I was supposed to say the amount out loud? Well, we did, it was $500 a person. Yeah. I got an extra two wins because the Pats were plus seven and a half or seven half over under Washington is nine and a half. Those were the totals.
Starting point is 00:49:50 I mean, that was it. We played it that way. Where it could get lucrative is it's win by win against Chang. The Pats have the easiest schedule the rest of the way. It's outrageous. It's outrageous. The Pats could just stumble into like 11 and 6 out of nowhere. The funniest thing that could possibly happen is the Titans beating the Patriots this week,
Starting point is 00:50:10 except for it's Rabel's revenge game. So I think the right way to play it is Patriots by 55 points. I'm going to be in the alt-spread market looking at that. Well, when you said the funniest thing that could happen, I thought you were going to tell the story of the dinner we had with Chang and Nathan. I'm not telling that story. Capo on Saturday. No, because you can't say the restaurant's name.
Starting point is 00:50:31 if we tell the story. I'm not going back there. I'm happy to say it. I love that restaurant. I want to go back there. Well, they need to apologize to us. They, I think they apologized to make you already. Did they apologize?
Starting point is 00:50:43 It was an all-timer. He said they apologized. It was an all-timer. They brought bottles of wine and didn't tell us the price and tried to jack the price out us. Like, we were like, zonked out basketball players. We just didn't do enough sort of inquiry. They didn't tell us.
Starting point is 00:51:01 then they brought a dessert wine that we didn't ask for and then charge us for that. I've never had, I've been going to restaurants my entire life. I've never seen that happen. Well, the dessert wine is like just completely unnecessary. It is not, you know, for us. We thought they were like bringing us like dessert wine because Chang was there. No, they decided to bring us a bottle and charge it to us. The cherry on top.
Starting point is 00:51:23 If I, if I said what the price of the bottle was, people wouldn't actually believe it. Don't say it. Yeah, I'm not going to. Don't say any price. I'll never go back there, so I have no problem. I love it. I'm going back. They have my business for life. I love that spot.
Starting point is 00:51:35 I hate, you know, when I, when I used to work as a waiter and bartender, we had this one, one waiter we worked with. And it's like, you know, it's standard. If it's six people or more, it's a standard, like, you add the tip, right? I think it was 18% in the 90s. But you would tell the table. It's like the right thing to do. It's like the karma thing to do is to be like, hey, just so you know the tip has been included. and this one waiter we worked with
Starting point is 00:52:02 would never tell the tables hoping he would get double-tipped. Was it the J-Bug? No, the J-Bug would never have done that, ever. The J-Bug is a man of integrity. The J-Bubb would never a millionaires have done that. He is...
Starting point is 00:52:16 To the contrary. An all-time karma guy. It was this other dude we had and he wouldn't tell the tables and we would get so mad. It was like, this fucking terrible that you did that. He said, well, I got 36% instead of 18.
Starting point is 00:52:28 It's a congratulations. fuck face. I just think when you do stuff like that, the karma comes back. So we'll see. That's fine. We'll see with that place.
Starting point is 00:52:36 Anyway, back to the football games. Broncos Giants, Broncos minus seven at home against the Giants. That is two crappy offenses. Yep. I don't want any part of this game
Starting point is 00:52:50 in either way. I have no idea who's going to win. I don't ever want to bet on Bo Knicks again. And I'm not putting them in a tease, anything. The problem is it's them at home. The funny. thing is it's basically the same number as the beginning of the season. The Titans at the Broncos landed. It was over the summer, seven and a half. It moved up to eight and a half.
Starting point is 00:53:09 And then the Titans covered. But, you know, it's another rookie quarterback on the road. And there is a lot of reason to be skeptical about the success. The Giants had a great defense, like, who takes unnecessary chances. I don't, I just, I'm just scarred from last week. We're staying away. It's good. It's fine last one that I looked at and I was intrigued by the 49ers minus one and a half against the falcons and especially Falcons coming off a Monday night game great win they're home they're feeling great now they're on the road boasts out warners out who knows who's actually playing for the Niners and it just felt like an awesome spot to be like oh yeah of course and my shit detector's going off it's a Sunday night game I don't trust the Falcons
Starting point is 00:53:56 I just can't, I can't get there. Definitely don't trust them on the road under any circumstances. Period. Their defense is first against the past. It's fourth on third downs. It's seventh and sacks. Like all the stat signs are like, you should probably bet the Falcons here,
Starting point is 00:54:11 but I'm not. It needs to stay away. Yeah, I agree with staying away. I will end up playing this game as Sunday night rolls around. And I will be, I'm going to play the Niners just because we, we establish the rule for ourselves. so we don't play the Brown, the Falcons on the road.
Starting point is 00:54:28 I would probably do the Niners or, yeah, or some T's that takes the Niners to four and a half or something, something goofy. We'll see. Like, by Sunday, Kittal might be playing. Right. You know, like they might have a couple receivers that we don't, right now we don't know who's playing.
Starting point is 00:54:43 Do we, is Purdy playing? We don't know. That's why they can't do. I think that's worth monitoring. If that's just, line stays under three and they get some guys back, Falcons, outdoors, night game, California. Yeah. That feels a little bit tasty.
Starting point is 00:54:58 So one other one, I didn't know if it was the stayway or not. Well, there's two, actually. One is Texan Seahawks. Okay. Houston plus three and a half in Seattle. And initially I was like, this looks like a smash spot for Houston because I really like their defense. And I don't think the Seattle home field advantage has been there the last couple years. I mean, the record backs it up.
Starting point is 00:55:26 I don't know what happened to it. Houston's defense, first in the league scoring, fifth passing, seventh rush. Seattle's offenses look good the last couple weeks, but maybe Houston can disrupt them. And then you look at the Seattle defense, the stats, the stature, some of the stuff they're doing against Houston's, like, really shitty offensive line. As Lombardi always said, offensive lines don't travel. You're putting them in Seattle with the loud crap. And Seattle, second against the run, third QB hits, second hurries, third sacks, just feels like, oh, I have yet Houston. And then a quarter in, you're like, oh, my God, they can't block Seattle.
Starting point is 00:56:07 So I think it's a stay away unless you feel strongly. No, I don't. I have a little on the Texans already because the three and a half is just too rich for me. And you mentioned how bad Seattle's been at home. The thing with Seattle that I can't forgive them is that loss against Baylor. Baker Mayfield and the Bucks. Like that was a situation that Seattle, if you're a serious team, you need to take care of business. That's a, that's a, you know, seating in the playoffs kind of game.
Starting point is 00:56:35 The implications are there because Seattle already lost at home to the 49ers. So like these are the teams that you have to beat if you're going to be, you know, in a serious place come playoff time. But you're right in terms of, you know, we can't bet on the Texans with that offensive line. We just can't do it. If we were 20 and 10 and Ringer 10 right now, I might have talked myself into it, but we need wins. There is one parlay that I didn't stare at for a while.
Starting point is 00:57:03 If you take Houston to plus seven and a half, and you take the under up to 47 and a half, I don't see 48 points in this game with the two defenses unless there was some weird turnover, special team shit. I just don't think. Just play it all the way up. Play it at full teaser. Texans up to nine and a half
Starting point is 00:57:22 and whatever the total is for the full six. Well, the 47-half, you're getting like seven extra points for the over-under. 47-a-half is a nice number because then... Yeah, key numbers, 47 in total. Yeah, that's a lot of points. So anyway, and then the other one that I think is a stay-away, but I'm willing to be talked out of it just because I probably overrate this team. Saints plus five and a half in Chicago.
Starting point is 00:57:46 Is this one of your three? We're playing this one, buddy. Oh, okay. Let there be no doubt. Me and... Let me move that one up. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:57:54 The other one out. I was looking at from a T's standpoint. Jacksonville and the Rams, and sadly, this is in London, which has become, we're 0 and 3 in London games. Jags are plus three. Ostensibly are going to have a home crowd. Who knows? Rams flying there. Puka is questionable and probably not playing.
Starting point is 00:58:14 And if he plays these on one leg, that makes me nervous. The Jags are just goofballs. But the spot, I was thinking that made me feel better about. this is is a parley or T's taking the Jags up into the 7 and a 8 range and making the Rams have to beat them by two scores late because I'm not positive
Starting point is 00:58:34 they can but the London game scares me so what do you think of that one? We're not playing it there's a reason that we have a rule against playing the London games there's a I mean we're just not playing it. We've broken the rule for three straight weeks. Big dumbasses. So
Starting point is 00:58:52 having said that I do think the Jags are the correct side and directionally, you know, putting them in some, there's no reason that you can't sit on the runway Saturday afternoon and fire off whatever you want on that. We just can't put it into this contest under any circumstances. You wouldn't even put that Jags plus eight and a half. Fuck, no, no, no. They're playing in London on Sunday morning.
Starting point is 00:59:17 There's a reason that we have a rule. So the Chiefs minus 11.5 at the Raiders, they're minus 700. I think for any parley they have to be in. Rice is back. Bowers, I think the Raiders without Bowers is just, I'm just not afraid of them. I know there's some history with these two teams. The Raiders have beaten them weirdly like maybe two times
Starting point is 00:59:42 of the last four years. But this to me feels like they break Rishie Rice out of the garage. They drive them around. They do little wheelies outside in the street. They zoom it down. They rev the engine a little. And they probably take their foot off the gas in the second half. But I feel very comfortable throwing them in some sort of parlay.
Starting point is 01:00:01 Okay. On the money line? As a minus 700. Yeah. It's like we do a three teamer. Great. Sure. I feel great about putting them in it.
Starting point is 01:00:09 Great. No problem. No chance. The Gino and the Raiders, nothing. Anything scare you? No. No. Cheap's kind of quietly up to the number three offense in the league by EPA now.
Starting point is 01:00:22 Catastrophe is the only thing that scares me with that. Pretty bad. They barely beat Tennessee last week, who then immediately fired their coach and the coach's dad. Calhant Tire Fires. The Raiders kind of beat Tennessee's ass. Tennessee like tried to show some life in the fourth quarter. It's like 20 points.
Starting point is 01:00:40 Tennessee is so bad. Calhant tire fires is no longer. Our guy Calhant finished 419 against the spread for his career. It's the number one worst against the spread in the history of football since they've been tracking spreads. It's amazing that I think. I only bet against him half the time. At what point in your life do you brag about that? Like when you're like 65 years old and someone's like,
Starting point is 01:01:04 I heard you were a coach. Yeah, coached an NFL team. Really? What team? Tennessee, coached there for a year and a half. Pause. You know,
Starting point is 01:01:12 I have the worst record ever against spread. Nobody's ever done worse. There were 23 opportunities to bet four against me. And if you bet against me, you won 19 of the 23. It's a record. it's 80% of the time you bet it gets me you won it's never happened before he's a record holder that's it you know i'm a record holder as an NFL head coach yeah i hold the record really what
Starting point is 01:01:37 record well it's a weird one also like how did Hugh Jackson not have the record you put that question into one of the threads I did anybody answer it there's no way that that that Hugh Jackson did very much better a little bit better maybe but not very much better. Four and 19 is just incredible. I'm in awe of it. Yeah, in awe. It's like when we were growing up and they would show Bob Beeman's Mexico City jump.
Starting point is 01:02:04 Right. And he'd be like, oh, my God. He jumped four feet further than everyone else. How did he do that? Four and 19, really amazing. Great stuff. The outer limits of human achievement. That dumbass Tennessee owner group, they fire the GM, they fire Vrabel.
Starting point is 01:02:22 They hire this guy. and ran Carthon. They fire him. They've had four firings in two years. What an amazing. We need to look up. They should have Vivek Ranadebe as their minority owner. Get him in there.
Starting point is 01:02:37 Shots. He could own a piece of the Titans. That's disrespectful because Sacramento, at least, they were lighting the beam just a couple years ago. It wasn't that long ago. They got the beam for like six months. Yeah, but that was a good team. And they took the Warriors to seven games.
Starting point is 01:02:50 Like that, you know, when's the last, Tennessee was the last good when Mike fucking Brable was the head coach. They went 12 and 5 with Mike Brable. Yeah. In this decade. Yeah. This decade.
Starting point is 01:03:00 Speaking of the Titans, Pat's Titans, it's in Tennessee. It's the first game after a fired coach. And it's been Drake May National Appreciation Week. On the ringer for sure. What do you mean on the ringer on everywhere? Watch ESPN. I had,
Starting point is 01:03:19 I flew to Boston on Wednesday and there. I had ESPN without the sound just on the TV. And it was like 17 Drake May segments. I mean, these advanced stats for him are unbelievable. Why is so, hey, listen, I'm sorry you got the wrong quarterback from the draft and then he's two years older and that he's not as good as Drake. I'm sorry. Let's see the Patriots in the AFC championship game. Then we can have that conversation. Fair enough. Thunderstorms and wins for this game. And yet I am not deterred. I think the pets have to be in a parlay with us. I don't, I don't want to do it. I don't want to do it. I don't want nothing to do
Starting point is 01:03:50 with it. I'm literally in the alt-spread market right now for that game on the idea that Vrable would like to win by 20 or more points. And if you want to let... Oh, you mean like a pour-it-on game? Yeah, a pour-it-on game. Why wouldn't he pour it on? But here's the problem. It is the new coach situation, which is not favorable for me. That didn't work. Didn't work last year. I'm just saying in general... I think it's not a favorable. It's not a favorable situation. But the thing that that... They're terrible. Tennessee's terrible.
Starting point is 01:04:23 They're terrible. The New England Patriots put the fucking ball on the ground five times against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The New England Patriots beat the crap out of the Steelers up and down the field, but put the goddamn ball on the ground. I just am not there yet altogether. I can't trust the team. I will put a small bet on. Fortunately for me, I have two picks that I get to make myself. I get to.
Starting point is 01:04:49 This is true. We split two and you get one. You're right. You're right. You are the boss. You didn't even make a case against that. You were just like, I don't know, they put the ball in the ground five times a month ago. They did do that.
Starting point is 01:05:01 Congrats. They did that. Did you feel like Packers Cardinals should be in any sort of parlayer T's Packers minus six and a half in Arizona? No, Marvin Harrison. I'm assuming because he had a concussion. Third string running backs for Arizona. Maybe Jacobi Berset again. They showed some life against the Colts.
Starting point is 01:05:19 Now, what that tells you is some more about the Colts, which we'll get too soon enough than about the Cardinals. But the Cardinals are playing. You know what I mean? Like, I just, the Green Bay team is too schizophrenic for me. They left the back door open. I mean, we were almost in a situation where Joe Flacco was going to have the ball
Starting point is 01:05:36 in the fourth quarter with a chance to either tire or take the lead. Come on. That's at home. That's a Lambo. I don't trust Green Bay yet. I'm telling you right now, just for you, I am going to play the New England Patriots
Starting point is 01:05:50 minus 19 and a half available on the Fandle sports book this is why I'm playing it at plus 420 the kids know what that means plus 420 can we start a new segment with Fando called runway bets
Starting point is 01:06:03 airplane runway bets that's one of those that I wouldn't do until the guys like please shut down your phones we were about to take off please make sure your belts are faster like oh my God I got to bet the pads plus 420
Starting point is 01:06:17 Let me get this off. Hold on, Pilot. Let's take a break, and then we'll talk about the games that we love. All right, this is interesting. So we didn't talk about beforehand which ones we liked. You said you liked three games. Have any of them come up with? Was Saints one of the games?
Starting point is 01:06:33 Saints was one of them, yes. Okay. Let's talk Saints then. Saints plus five and a half at Chicago. Saints outdoors. Bears overvalued. So those things cancel each other out. Bears defense.
Starting point is 01:06:44 32nd yards per play. Thirty first against the run. They have no pass rush whatsoever and a pretty lucky win against your dumb team last week with your stupid turnovers. More than pretty lucky. The effing Washington's
Starting point is 01:06:57 fumbled the ball at midfield with three minutes left in the game on a third and short with a chance to just win the effing football game. The goddamn bears have won two straight games by the score of 25 to 24, one point. And both of them have been these preposterous outcomes
Starting point is 01:07:13 where the other team is like, would you like to win a game this season? so dumb. I'm so upset with it. But five and a half. You know, it's funny. It all, they always talk about turnover regression and regression on fourth down, all this stuff. And you had all these amazing stats last year. Right. And we're watching in real time this season, the regression just flip. Like last year, third and three from midfields with a chance to put the game away. You would have taken two chances, put it away. Yeah, that's right. I don't know what the difference is this year. The offensive line isn't as a
Starting point is 01:07:47 as good. There's no receivers. No McLaurin. Right. So that's the difference. And Jaden had a bad game. All right. So what's your case for this Saints plus five and a half? It's a ridiculous number. It's the Bears. The Bears is the case. Like five and a half. What are we talking about? If you wanted to say the Bears at home, you know, by two and a half or something, some
Starting point is 01:08:09 reasonable number, less than a field. But this is based on priors that don't exist this season. The Saints are averaging nearly five yards per play on the road against good teams. Against Seattle and Buffalo, they did it against New England. This is the easiest defense that the Saints will have confronted by far, by a long shot. And, you know, the Saints have better net yards per play. There's a whole bunch of stats that just support the idea. We're not saying that the Saints are good. They're competent, though.
Starting point is 01:08:45 They're playing hard. And we're seeing in front of us, Rattler growing more and more comfortable, even if they end up in a game script where the weather is going to really mess with this, I'd much rather have the Saints offense in bad weather than the Bears' offense in bad weather. Bears can't run the football.
Starting point is 01:09:02 The Bears got lucky with a real route swing pass to goddamn DeAndre Swift against my Washington team, where Kwan Martin thought he was playing two-hand touch. He two-hand touched them. on the sideline and then run 55 yards for a touchdown. That was the game deciding goddamn touchdown. I am not a believer in this Bears team. Give me all the five and a half points.
Starting point is 01:09:24 And I'll probably play New Orleans on the money line as well. It's a great case. I'll add this. New Orleans, they lose 20 to 13 and week one to Arizona. Right? First week, they actually were a little more competitive than I think people realized. And Cardinals went up early and the Saints were like coming back trying to win. There was like ride receiver with the ball in his hands in the end zone with 13 seconds left for the Saints.
Starting point is 01:09:50 It just didn't stay in his hands. The ball fell out of his hands. But we're about to tie that game up. 49ers, week two, lose by five, another respectable effort. They get killed by the Seahawks in Seattle in week three. That's a good defense game. Turnovers. That game was all turnovers.
Starting point is 01:10:06 Their net yards were fine. At Buffalo hung around the entire game. Whole game. And I watched that game and had that game on. and was shocked how they were able to get first downs and just kind of hang around staying. They beat the Giants 2614. Last week against my team, 2519,
Starting point is 01:10:24 we watched together some awful calls, some of the worst calls ever, and multiple times Pat's guys were wide open down the field. But they pressured May. Like, they were around him the whole game. They moved the ball. Like, Rattler was okay. Like, they had a chance to win that game.
Starting point is 01:10:42 So their schedule has been pretty good. Like, they haven't played a shit team yet unless you count the Giants. I don't think the Giants are a shit team. They're not one of the five worst teams. No, they're not. I agree with you. I think this line is too high. That's why I had it marked down.
Starting point is 01:10:56 The other thing that I like and I'm tracking now that we're enough weeks in, I'm looking at the allocation of tickets because the public is getting annihilated. So I just want directionally to have some validation, some confirmation right now, 60% is on Chicago. That's on the Fandole Sports Book. if you go under their stats thing, 60% of tickets on Chicago. So directionally, that makes me feel good. One of the most fun is taking a team right after they looked awesome on a Monday game.
Starting point is 01:11:25 Right. And also, Aikman was really hard on Caleb Williams in that game and it turned into a story. But I don't know. I stand with Trey Aikman. And, I mean, the Saints are going to play his own coverage and the weather's going to be bad. Let's see it. Let's see it, Caleb. I like, I mean, you know, I'm rooting for Caleb.
Starting point is 01:11:40 Went to my high school. Can we talk Panthers Jets? Was that one of your three? it was not panthers minus one and a half at the jets tic-tac game yeah and i'll admit brys young on the road has been admittedly rough it hasn't been great he's been it's been a home away situation with them at home they've been good panthers finally with some skill position guys defense not terrible fourth against the run sixth first down's allowed Jets defense, 32nd, forced turnover.
Starting point is 01:12:12 Something's got to give with them and Bryce Young on the road. Panthers defense, ninth against the run, and their issue is past defense. The Jets don't have Garrett Wilson, and we're already 32nd out of all the teams in passing success, every metric ever. Yes. So there's two things. One would be you could say, well, if the Jets don't win this one, they might not win this year. Like, this is a nice spot for them. The other one is like, maybe there's something here with Carolina.
Starting point is 01:12:43 Like, to get over the hump, it'd be four and three after this game. We could do the, whoa, oh my God, the Panthers are four and three. I think this is going to be Justin Fields' last start ever. Well, do we know for sure that he's starting? He might have already had his last start ever last week. It was up in the air. I thought the news reports were suggesting that Tyrod might be the starter. There's some news out there that suggests that.
Starting point is 01:13:09 The Jets are terrible. And I thought Denver, we watched that game together, too. If Bowenek slides in the first half over the, over the marker, I just think Denver wins by 30. This feels like it just boozed the whole thing. Anyway, I like the Panthers. So you're not as enthused. Just because, I mean, let them show us.
Starting point is 01:13:31 Let him go win a game on the road. Just show us that you can do it. I don't care. I don't care who, you know, it's, I don't like going up against a team that hasn't won yet even in the completely depleted state that the jets are in
Starting point is 01:13:46 and that the coach that head coach he will soon enough again be a defensive coordinator. I like when he's Aaron Glenn's already doing the I've been I watched this with Dan Campbell it takes a while to build a house
Starting point is 01:14:01 doing that whole thing. It's like you know what else would help build the house? Calling timeouts for the end of the first half. A little foundation. Yeah. Some game management maybe helps the house. Construction manager. Yeah, some of those things could help.
Starting point is 01:14:15 Was Vikings Eagles one of your games? I gave it a good, long, hard look. Let's give it a hard look now. Vikings plus two and a half at home against the Eagles who don't have Mitchell, a cornerback. Right. Probably don't have Dickerson. And there's like a million pieces you can find online
Starting point is 01:14:38 about how different their offensive line is this year than last year. Carter playing hurt or not playing. Their best guy, their night and day when he's not out there. Zadarius Smith just retired. They've no pass rush anymore. This is their top three pass rushers are now out. And hurting a cornerback against Jefferson Addison.
Starting point is 01:14:57 I don't love that. I assume it's Wence. I don't mind Wence against a really bad defense. But the Eagles, the real thing for me, I think that you could say the Eagles have a below average defense so far this year. I think that's fair. There's somewhere in like the, if you have four tiers of defense, they're in the third tier.
Starting point is 01:15:18 They're not bottom tier, but third tier. Their offensive stats are unbelievably bad. Like, and they back up what we've been watching, which has been a big shit sandwich. 29th to gets passed. 25th against the rush. 28th yards per play. 31st, tackles for loss. And they're going to this Minnesota defense, second versus past, second on third down,
Starting point is 01:15:37 third Keebhries. They have Cashman and Van Ginkle coming back this week. They're home. They're underdogs. And I don't understand the line. What is the line now? The line is Vikings plus two and a half.
Starting point is 01:15:50 Yeah, we would be playing at Vikings plus two and a half. So here's the problem for me. This is why I was stuck on it. The Vikings haven't really done much in terms of like inside the numbers. They're 0.4 net yards per play better. against Chicago who they came back late to win
Starting point is 01:16:13 against Atlanta with Pennix. You're going full nerd on me right now? Well, I'm just like looking at this. Like they they you know they they have Atlanta Cincinnati Pittsburgh on a neutral field and Cleveland right? This is this is like these games these teams that they played
Starting point is 01:16:32 under these circumstances is not really blowing me away with this Minnesota team. Now, you would say, well, Cashman and Ben Kinkle missed a chunk of, a significant chunk of those games. Yes, they did. They were missing the two linebackers who were the fuel to their team. And the reason to be bullish on
Starting point is 01:16:55 the Vikings is Jalen Hertz has been horrific, horrific against two-man and against zone defense. Absolutely terrible. And the Minnesota Vikings will blitz the hell out of him. But, you know, the only thing you have to, like, say to yourself is we're betting on Carson Wentz. Or had they said for sure that it's Wentz? Can I offer you this?
Starting point is 01:17:23 I just looked this up on Fandau. Vikings up to plus three and a half. Sheep's money line, minus 120, right at the cutoff of what we can do for a parley. And now we're over the field goal hump with that. Yeah, I don't hate that. I don't hate that because it still permits the idea that the Eagles win a close one. I don't like the defense, the matchup for the Eagles in any way, shape, or form. Chiefs money with Vikes plus three and a half.
Starting point is 01:17:58 Okay. Okay. we have two comebacks by Minnesota that kind of have saved their season. They came back against Chicago in that fourth quarter and they came back in the final, like, you know, minute against Cleveland. But we didn't have Addison in the first three games.
Starting point is 01:18:16 Now they have the two receivers with Hawkinson. Okay. I think they can run on them. I actually like Jordan Mason. I think he's been good. I have one of one of fantasy teams. We also like O'Connell off the buy, right? With a chance who's got a long look at this Philadelphia.
Starting point is 01:18:32 the Eagles. The Eagles have been telling us who they are for six weeks and they really could be two and four. Okay. I kind of like it. I kind of like it. Bikes plus three and a half
Starting point is 01:18:40 chief's money minus 120. So that's one of our bets. Put that in the book. I marked it down. Okay. Two more games. Chargers Colts? Did that one intrigue you?
Starting point is 01:18:50 Oh, it sure did. Yes. Chargers minus one and a half favorites at home against the Colts. The Colts have major, major cornerback injury stuff. They're just like, they've been ravaged.
Starting point is 01:19:02 So there's that. We watched them last week play Arizona. And Jacoby Brissette, who was not a playable quarterback last year for New England, I think he went 27 for 44. He threw for over 300 yards. There was like a quarterback controversy in Arizona after the game. And the reason he did so well was the Colts defense was awful. And if you look at it, they beat Brissette by four.
Starting point is 01:19:27 They'd be Gino. They beat Cam Ward. They beat Bo Nix. in a game that they should have lost that stupid leverage play and they beat two in week one. The Chargers have, it seems like Joe Waltz coming back
Starting point is 01:19:38 for a left tackle. Oh. Seems like he did the limited practice, like might be back, and then Cleo Mac might be back as well. And it's funny. I started the week really liking the Colts and thinking they were underrated,
Starting point is 01:19:51 but these defensive injuries comes down to this for me, Joe House. This just to me feels like a Justin Herbert is awesome game. And we're going to find out of Johnson in his plane, but I think he is. He's been limited practice. But if Brosec can do that against the Colts defense,
Starting point is 01:20:10 this just feels like a Justin Herbert. Just take us home. All we need to do is win by three, Justin Herbert. Just take us home. Add this to your MVP candidacy. I'll ride you. And also, should the Colts really be six and one? Like, that seems crazy.
Starting point is 01:20:24 Yeah, yeah. Good. We're on the same page here. All the reasons you just listed. that cult secondary without Chavarrius Ward, who has been incredible. So he got concussed before the game. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:20:38 Yesterday. It's a week-long injury anyway. But I think that, I mean, he's had multiple, multiple concussions. Yeah. So I don't think we'll be seeing him.
Starting point is 01:20:48 Yeah, they have no debacks. They have no debacks. The other thing I love is that the public is on the cults. Right now, 59% on the Colts. Now, we wanted to get to 60%.
Starting point is 01:20:59 So go ahead, Please, hey, the Colts, the Chargers barely beat the Dolphins last week. So let me have the Colts on the road. Okay, please, please do that. Let's get this nice 60% for the public. Chargers, the top six against the pass. So the thing that would worry me in this game is they run all over the Chargers. Taylor just goes nuts.
Starting point is 01:21:21 Sure. By the way, they've played in L.A. already, weirdly. They played the Rams in L.A. So they did the Sofi double. I don't know if that's good or bad for them. And lost close. Yeah. But do we really believe that Indiana Jones is going to be
Starting point is 01:21:36 as six and one? Yeah. And as triumphant as he's been thus far. Awesome. Let me ask you this. How many games in a row can Daniel Jones play before just having an awful game? Before just submitting a shit sandwich.
Starting point is 01:21:54 Like what's a realistic number? Even if we were like the best case version of a Daniel Jones season, I mean I have my right hand up I'm ready to see it this is the game we've gone through six games where he hasn't been terrible in any of the games
Starting point is 01:22:07 he has not been he's been very good where we haven't said oh man he's just walking off the sidelines with that weird look on his face chargers minus one and a half grab it chargers would be five and two if they win this they will have earned it too
Starting point is 01:22:22 I think if they win this first of all it completely changes the complexion of Texans Seahawks on Monday night because the Texans can steal that one all of a sudden they're back. Not right, but I feel like we're going to be flipping our opinion on the AFC South all season.
Starting point is 01:22:38 Probably. All right, I saved the best for last. I knew this would be one of your games. There's just no doubt. We have the Cleveland Browns favored by two and a half against the Miami Dolphins. The weather report, I don't think ominous is a strong enough word.
Starting point is 01:22:55 Here's what we know we have. definite, definite rainstorm. The mile and hours for the winds, they said conservative 15 to 20, possibility of 50 to 60. The temperature is not going to be that low. So with the two a thing, it's like when two under four, two in the dolphins under 40 degrees, dolphins in any scenario under 40 degrees, like just an automatic smash. But two in bad weather. And then on top of it, their defense is 32nd against the rough.
Starting point is 01:23:26 So if this is just that it's bad weather, let's see who can run the ball. You have on the one hand a defense can't stop the rush. On the other hand, you have a Cleveland defense that's third against a run and is good, even though they didn't look great last week against Pittsburgh. The most important thing, by a long shot, is that it's the Cleveland defense at home. Right. The Cleveland defense at home is magnificent. And, you know, they took a season off last season, but the season before that,
Starting point is 01:23:56 when they went into the playoffs with Joe Flacko as their quarterback, a dominant defense at home. We are right back in that saddle. Again, a dominant defense against the run in particular. And Tua not being able to throw the football in these weather conditions, oh, the fact that this stayed. Only their third Brown's home game this year, too. And you're right.
Starting point is 01:24:19 They're a completely different team when they're home with the defense. Go ahead. Well, all I was going to say is, is I forgot what I was going to say. The Gabriel part, too. Remember the situations that he was put into as a starting quarterback. He went up against Minnesota with the Blitz defensive Flores. Welcome to the NFL. And then they lost a day.
Starting point is 01:24:41 They traveled from Europe back to the United States to play Mike Tomlin at Pittsburgh. So, you know, I think this is his first like real week to be with his. Yeah, right, right. I don't think he's very good. I don't think so either. I'm not making a case. But you know who I know is it very good? The Miami Dolphins.
Starting point is 01:24:59 So how about this house? They have the 32nd rush defense, right? Last in the week. And we have some bad rush defenses. They played Kamani Vidal last week in the Chargers. They played Rico Dowdo. They basically turned Rico Dado's career around. They played the fucking Jets.
Starting point is 01:25:18 They played my team. That rushed for 22 for 45 with their two starting running backs last week. We can't run. run the ball at all. I'm making up Derek Henry and Alvin Kabarer trades with my friends.
Starting point is 01:25:30 And then they play James Cook and Taylor who are two of the best. But if four your six games against those four teams and your 30 second against the rush,
Starting point is 01:25:39 you can't stop the rush. So this could be the Judkins game of all time, would be my guess. Let's go. This is it. This is the,
Starting point is 01:25:46 you know, vote up. Brown's minus two and a half feels like a miracle. I just don't understand why I say to two and a half.
Starting point is 01:25:54 I, this is my favorite game of the year. I feel the same way. And you know what? I love this game. I can't wait to watch Miami, shivering cold with the wind. Toa and Miles Garrett coming after Tua, two in horrible weather.
Starting point is 01:26:09 Like this just feels like a fucking godsend. Yeah. All over it. I wish we could bet this five times. Let's enter this into the contest. It says browns, Browns, Browns, Browns. I wish we could do that.
Starting point is 01:26:20 Today's Brigger 107, brought to you by Fandol. We are 14 and 16 for the season. but we had a lot of momentum from last week. And we've had a lot of bad luck this year. And I feel like our luck is starting to shift. We have five picks. House has the first one, Saints plus five and a half in Chicago.
Starting point is 01:26:35 You thought this line was three points too high. You don't like the Bears? You think the Saints are maybe a five and a half on the frisky scale? What else am I missing? It's time to pour some settle down juice on the bears. Well, is there any bitterness that they beat your team last week? Yes, there definitely is. You just kept turning the ball over and letting them hang around?
Starting point is 01:26:53 Yes. Yes. There was a lot of bitterness. The Bears have won a couple dumb games. Anyway, I think this is a three-point game and maybe the Saints can win. I'm with you on that one. Next one, we both like Chargers, Colts, Chargers minus one and a half. Fine. The Justin Herbert MVP game, let's see it. Colts defense ravage with secondary injuries.
Starting point is 01:27:14 Let's go, Justin Herbert. Show us why you should be in this conversation with Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes and my guy, Drake May. And maybe Josh Allen. I forgot about him. Don't want to forget about Josh Allen. But yeah, the Colts,
Starting point is 01:27:28 this feels like a bad spot for them. Second LA trip for them already. We're waiting for the Daniel Jones. Don't forget that he's not a mortal lock to be good all the time guy. We are. Next one. Panthers minus one and a half against the Jets. This is my pick.
Starting point is 01:27:44 Panthers minus one and a half. We're breaking the seal off of Bryce Young and the Panthers skill guys. Rico Dowdell. Ted McMillan, Jalen Coker from Holy Cross coming back. I think they can move the ball. Listen, we've said the Panthers, only bet on them at home. I think this is when we finally get some growth.
Starting point is 01:28:01 We get some stories on Sunday night. Panthers finally won one on the road where they look like maybe, uh, by the way, they could be four and three after this. And I think the Jets are just reprehensively bad. They might be. No Garrett Wilson. The way to beat the Panthers, throw the ball on them. Jets, 30 second pass offense.
Starting point is 01:28:19 No Garrett Wilson. Sounds awesome. Next one is our parlay. Chiefs Money Line against the Raiders. Free to throw that one and it's minus 700. Pat's Money Line against the Titans. Calhant tire fires no more. Pat's on the road.
Starting point is 01:28:33 Rayball all-time revenge game. House loves this for Pat's minus 19 and a half as an airplane runway band. Plus 420. So minus 19.5 plus 420. Anyway, Chiefs Money Line, Pat's Money Line. We're to bring the Vikings against the Smok and Marys Eagle. up to plus seven and a half at home.
Starting point is 01:28:52 We think that can actually win the game. We sure do. But Chief's Money Line, Pat's Money Line, Vikings plus seven and a half against a Eagles team that has not looked awesome. Then last but not least, our favorite pick in seven weeks. Literally. Cleveland Browns minus two and a half at home against the dolphins. Thunderstorms, wind estimated between worst case scenario.
Starting point is 01:29:20 50 miles an hour, scariest scenario, 60 miles an hour. And Tua and the Dolphins and DJ Mikey Mac. Yeah, just trying to dial it up with their 30-second run
Starting point is 01:29:33 defense as the Browns run all over them, their defense goes nuts and we like the Browns at home. We sure do. Quinshawn Judkins' breakout game, more breakout game and that defense against this.
Starting point is 01:29:44 That's great. Let's go, man. That's today's Ringer 101. 7. It's brought to by Fandul Odds. Subject. to change house you did so well i want to pour you a glass of dessert wine and then charge you five hundred dollars for it oh well that feels like a bargain 500 you're only charging me 500
Starting point is 01:30:01 yeah maybe i went low uh house hey hey i'll see you next week good luck in the rigor 107 good luck to both of us all right that's it for the podcast thanks to you kyle man and house and edwardo and gahow enjoy the weekend i'm going to be back on sunday with the cuss talk in NFL. See you then. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gaming problem.
Starting point is 01:30:44 Call 100 Gambor or visit RG-G-Halt.com. Call 888-79-7777-7-7. or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or MD gambling help.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helplinema.org. Or call 800, 327.50 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 878-8-Hope NY or text Hope NY in New York.

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