The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Dame Trade Deep Dive With Ben Thompson, Plus Seth Meyers and Million-Dollar Picks

Episode Date: September 29, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons starts by reacting to Damian Lillard being traded to the Milwaukee Bucks in a three-team trade (1:38). He also talks about Deandre Ayton in Portland, what's next for Jrue Holiday, and more. Then business and tech analyst Ben Thompson joins Bill to give his perspective on the Lillard trade as a Bucks fan (26:53). After that, Bill makes his Million-Dollar Picks for Week 4 in the NFL (53:07) before NBC late-night host Seth Meyers joins the show to talk about his ‘Saturday Night Live’ days, what he's been up to during the writers strike, and much more (1:03:16). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout http://theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ben Thompson and Seth Meyers Producers: Isaiah Blakely and Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, Dame gets traded. Million dollar pick, Seth Meyers. It's all next. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right.

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we have Tara Paul Mary's podcast. Somebody's got to win that reacted to it as well as the press box with Brian Curtis and David Shoemaker. So there you go. Our debate coverage has been on point. Also higher learning van and Rachel had Larry Elder on this week and it made a lot of noise, man. That podcast is great. I hope you check that out as well. I hope you're checking out the ringer.com. And on this podcast, going to talk about the Dame trade at the top. We're going to bring in Ben Thompson from the

techery newsletter, which he has been on this podcast, I think four weeks ago. And he's a huge Bucks fan. He's going to give the, I think four weeks ago. And he's a huge bucks fan. He's going to give the bucks fan side of things. We can do a million dollar picks. And then old friend, Seth Meyer is talking about a whole bunch of stuff. So really good podcast. It's all next. First, our friends from project. All right, I'm taping this on Thursday afternoon.

Normally when there's a big NBA trade, I always do the emergency trade reaction right after the podcast, but we just put up a podcast on Tuesday. So I decided to play it a little differently this time. One little distance, want to listen to stuff, read stuff, and try to form some big picture opinions coming out of this. So I have four smaller ones than one big one. First one, I thought Portland did an incredible job with this trade. I really liked this trade, especially everyone's trying to bully them in June and July about, oh, you got to take Miami's offer. You just got to, it's where he wants to go. It's the only offer you're going to

get. And guess what? They waited, they played it perfectly. They stared Miami down and they got a much better deal. First of all, they get the drew holiday piece that they can flip into a bunch of other stuff, which we'll talk about in one second. I love the DeAndre Ayton gamble. As you know, on this podcast, I am a big DeAndre Ayton guy, not in the sense of I'm the biggest fan of his in the world, but I'm a fan of the asset. I just think I love the valued assets, no matter what it is, whatever, whatever market we're talking about. DeAndre Ayton, 18 and 10 for his career, 60% field goals, uh, percentage, 25 years old. He's played in 45 playoff games.

He played four rounds in the 2021 finals last year. He got his ass kicked by a Yoko. Oh, sorry. Like that never happens. And Phoenix just, just sold on him, which I can't wait to talk about. But just from a Portland standpoint, they not only get Aiton and whatever they get for holiday, they get the 29 first, they get the two swaps and they dump Nurkic. Nurkic hasn't had a healthy start to finish all the way through the playoffs here

since 2018, which I'm positive was a long time ago. He's basically a 12 and eight. He's, you know, a 50% shooter. I made a list of the top 30 centers. I encourage you to do this at home because what's more fun than making lists of NBA centers? I can't imagine anything. I made a list of who I thought were the best assets of the center position for talent, contract, everything. He was 29th on my list. The only person I had ahead of him, who's technically a starter, unless you start talking about the Detroit or Charlotte guys, was Zubats on the Clippers. I thought he was the 29th best center asset in the league. And Phoenix, you know, just quickly to go to them,

they're trying to win this year. They got worse. They turned Aiton's money into Nurkic and Grayson Allen and Nasir Little. Grayson Allen, we already know with him, he can't play in playoff series. We saw him in 22. We saw it last year.

I heard and read in some places like that. I got two rotation players. Did they, is Nurkic a playoff rotation player is Grayson Allen a playoff rotation player? Cause I'm positive he's not. So for the same money that they were spending on eight and they got three guys that I don't think are going to help them, uh, in 25, the money comes down a little bit to 23 million, just for Nurkic and little, which is 7 million, less than eight. And then in 25, the money comes down a little bit to 23 million just for Nurkic and Little, which is 7 million less than Aiton. And then in 26, that money goes up to 25.5. But I don't understand what Phoenix was doing. Why not wait to see if Aiton clicks with Vogel? Vogel has such a good history with centers. He rejuvenated Dwight Howard of the 2020 Lakers.

He basically created Roy Hibbert's career in 2013 with the defense verticality thing. I thought he was going to do a good job with Aiton. I'm stunned that they gave up on him. I'm almost waiting for one of those, now they tell us stories when, you know, that's where Brian Curtis calls them. We're like a week after something happens. There's this kind of notebook dump where it's like, here's seven terrible DeAndre Ayton stories. So maybe that'll happen. But for Phoenix just to be like, cool, we locked this down, man. We got Nurkic. You're trying to win the title. You have KD and Booker and Beal. What are you guys doing? Anyway, from Portland's standpoint, I love the Ayton thing. I love that they didn't get bullied. And I know they're going to turn Drew Holiday into something. So this to me was at least an A minus for them for where they were two months ago where

Dame's like, I want to go to Miami. That's it. And if you don't trade me there, that's kind of fucked up. And they made this work as it got reported that I think in the athletic that he expanded his list to Brooklyn and to Milwaukee in the last two weeks. And that's what Portland was waiting on. They were banking on the fact that he's a competitive dude. He's one of the best 75 players ever. He wanted a situation settled. So you wait, you wait, you wait, they expand the list and then you go. There's a Drew Holiday piece to this that's awesome. He becomes a contender prize. I wouldn't call this a Drew Holiday sweepstakes. I reserve sweepstakes for the superstars, but it's a mini sweepstakes. This is somebody that could have a huge impact on the playoff race. Not only the usual suspects, everybody's talking about Boston.

Ironically, Miami is a really good fit for him. And in some ways, I'm a little more scared of them with Miami than Dame in some ways, especially at a little more scared of them with Miami than Dame in some ways, especially at a much cheaper contract with giving up less and keeping some of their assets. Philly, if they could pull it off, they have to be in there. And Golden State and Minnesota, I think I have to mention. Sacramento, I think is a team that if they could figure out how to get Drew without giving up their core, which is basically Keegan Murray and Sabonis and Fox. Could Davion Mitchell be in that trade with a salary and some picks? Who knows?

The team that I love for Drew Holiday is OKC. I have OKC. I started doing my NBA research for the over-under spot, and I haven't landed on a number for them yet, but to me, they feel like a high 40s team with Chet and with the growth of their young guys. And if you just like, let's say they traded Lou Dort and a bunch of their picks, maybe two first and two of their lesser picks or three first and a second, whatever it is. And they just say, fuck it. And they get Drew and you put him with Gideon SGA and Jalen fucking awesome Williams and Chet Holmgren and all these other dudes they have,

that might be a top three team in the West. I mean, that that's starting to give me some early 2010s OKC vibes. So where he goes is going to be important. I just feel like there was so much true holiday slander the last couple of days. You know, he's one of my favorite players, even Haral Bob, who was the chairman of the board of the Drew Holiday fan club for years and would have the benefit dinners there and just did a lot of yeoman's work on that front. And even he was like, yeah, yeah, Dame's better than Drew. That trade makes sense from walking. I was hurt, Haral, Bob. I was 100% hurt by that. But Drew got his ass kicked by Jimmy Butler in the playoffs last year. I get it. It happens. Jimmy was unbelievable. I feel like he would have kicked anybody's ass.

And by the way, why is drew holiday guarding Jimmy Butler? That speaks more to some of the issues with Milwaukee. Um, he was never supposed to be a point guard and a creator. I think he was always better as an off the ball guy. We saw that with, with Rondo and new Orleans and just in general, I want to see him with a point guard. I want to see him just being unleashed, not having the ball a lot, just worrying about hitting threes, being an occasional, you know, uh, make shit happen guy and being like the third or fourth best guy in a team without having the offensive responsibility to have

all their half court issues got blamed on him for the last couple of years. And I get it. They weren't like an awesome half court team, even the other one, the finals, but I really value that dude. I had him, even I did the trade value list in August and I had him 37th and I had Dame 23rd. I think he's one of the best 30 players in the league still. Um, he's 33 years old, which, you know, I'm going to talk in a second about when guards hit their mid thirties, but, um, just in general, I think he's a real asset. And like, if he goes to a team like the Celtics and they can keep Derek white and Tatum and Brown in the centers, like, look out, man.

So little mini sweepstakes rarely do we get the trade, but then we still get another asset to talk about. Thank you for everyone involved in the trade. And then, uh, the fourth small point is just that, you know, not rocket science, Milwaukee Rarely do we get the trade, but then we still get another asset to talk about. Thank you for everyone involved in the trade. And then the fourth small point is just that, you know, not rocket science. Milwaukee bought some Giannis time here. They have one of the best 20 players of all time. They were staring down the barrel of a situation that was not good. I was talking about it on this podcast in late June and early July.

I thought he was going to put them on the clock. I thought Mark Lazzari selling his stake was a really bad sign for all of this because that dude is smart. As I laid out in June, that guy is really smart. And if he's feeling like, you know what? It's time for me to sell my buck stock. That makes me nervous. And then all the stuff that Giannis said and did, which I thought he did really fairly

and really smartly. And I think that dude's about titles and that's it. And I know we say that about players, but I think in his case, I don't think he cares about what's my legacy, how do I compare against Dirk Nowitzki, any of that stuff. I just think he wants more rings. I mean, think about the guys who have won two rings out of the best 35 guys on my list, and my pyramid. MJ LeBron, Russell will bird magic, Duncan will curry, Kobe, Hakeem, Shaq, Katie and Honda, and docking Koozie Isaiah Wade, Pippen, Bill Walton.

Those are all guys in my top 35 that won multiple wings. You go to the one ring side, Jerry West, Oscar, Moses, Dirk, Yoko, Giannis, Pettit, Garnett, Kawhi, Rick Barry. That's the list he's on now. I certainly don't think he's looking at that list going, I got to get away from these guys, but it's a slightly different list. I think when you win multiple rings in multiple situations, it elevates you in a certain way. I think he fundamentally understands that at least a little bit. Like I want to be the best player since LeBron James. I think that's a thing that he wants.

How am I going to do that? I need more rings. I need more finals trips. And he knew from last year and maybe even the Boston series that they just weren't good enough. And whether this trade is going to be the thing that propels them, we'll find out.

But he's been in the league 10 years, two MVPs, five first teams, two second teams. And now we have this little two-year window. So Kawhi and the Raptors was a one-year window. This is a two-year window, I feel like. With Giannis, he's got two years left in his deal. So does Lopez. Middleton has two in a player option. Dame's got two.

And then this crazy $120 million player option extension thingy that he has that just keeps going and going. It's probably two years. There's a world where this could go terribly this season, at least for what the expectations are. And then maybe it becomes Kawhi Raptors. Maybe Giannis is like, you know what? That didn't work.

Trade me. And the Bucs who have no picks left and no future, they look at it next summer and they go, all right, we tried it. Giannis, what can we get for you? Dame, what can we get? And they just do a reboot, rehaul. Remember, they won in 2021, which just takes so much pressure out of this. It's so much different than the Clippers situation where they went all in on Kawhi and Paul George. They give up all those picks and SGA, and they've gotten nothing out of it.

They haven't even made the finals. So it's got to happen. I think they at least probably have to make the finals. If they get bounced in round two, do I think Giannis is going to stay? Cause they made this day more trade. Probably not. So that leads to the big question is how good of a trade was this?

So there's a big picture angle on Dame and it's going to sound negative, but I really don't want it to sound negative because I think Dame, I voted for him for NBA top 75. I think he's been one of the best guards of the last 15 years. I think there's a ton of great things you can say. And there's a chance that he goes to Milwaukee and this thing is fucking awesome. I know like any Celtic fan I've talked to, including Isaiah, who's helping produce this podcast today, the Giannis Dame pick and roll is just terrifying.

It's other than Jokic and Murray, it's going to be the single most unstoppable offensive play in the league. helping produce this podcast today. The Giannis Dame pick and roll is just terrifying. Other than Jokic and Murray, it's going to be the single most unstoppable offensive play in the league. It is. We are conceding that point. The spot Dame is in right now, big picture-wise, it's weird. He's a superstar, but he's not.

And we've seen guys like this before. I judge superstars by, do you have the resume statistically? And is your team succeeding consistently at a certain level? Right? You can't totally say that about Dame. Like he's never been on a 55 win team. He's missed the playoffs completely four times in 11 years.

He said three first round exits. He made the final four once in 2019, which was really lucky because Golden State and Houston were the two best teams. And then they got smoked. He's never been on a true contender ever. And instinctively you go, well, that's not his fault.

Who's he played with? Well, he played with Marcus Aldridge and CJ McCollum and a couple other guys, but not really anybody. But the reason I'm bringing this up is there's a success element that he has not had yet that for somebody with his resume is actually kind of unusual, right? So I went and I looked up how many guards in the history of the league averaged 22 points a game for their career and played at least 700 games. And I thought the

list would be like 20. I didn't know. I didn't know what I was walking into. Only, I think, 75 guys have averaged 22 a game. So I went and I looked up the list and it was 10 guys, 700 games, 22 a game for their career. There were some guys who came close, like David Thompson, who I think is one of the best guards I've seen in the last 45 years, but had a short career and had some drug issues. He didn't make it. He didn't play enough games. Pete Maravich, 24.2 points a game, but he didn't play enough games. Kyrie hasn't played enough games yet. Bradley Beal is five games away. I'm actually kind of glad the cutoffs at 700, so we don't have to talk about him. And then Mitchell and Trey young aren't there yet.

There's only 10 guys that made it. And the 10 guys are all fucking awesome. And again, I mentioned this in the concept of Dame, the context of Dame, who we think he is versus the success he's had. So the 10 guys, Michael Jordan,

30.1, Jerry West, 27.1, Alan Iverson, 26.7, George Girvin, 26.2, Oscar Robertson, 30.1, Jerry West, 27.1, Allen Iverson, 26.7, George Girvin, 26.2, Oscar Robertson, 25.7, Kobe, 25.0, Harden, 24.7, Curry, 24.6, Wade, 22, barely made it, and Russ, 22.4. And then Dame is at 25 again. All right. What does he not have that those other guys have? Well, MJ don't need to

talk about him. Don't need to talk about Jerry West. Who's the freaking logo, Alan Iverson, pretty good comparison, right? Uh, big stats, really memorable player, but not a ton of success. Here's the difference. Iverson made the finals once he won an MVP. Damian has done neither of those things. George Gervin was the best scoring guard of the seventies. He made two final fours. He had some bad luck. Like he really in 79 really should have, you know, came close and some of it's on him. Right. Right.

He could have come through. Bobby Dandridge is the one that ended up coming through for the bullets. They lose, but you know, two final fours. He had four top five MVP finishes, five first teams, four second teams. He was just unassailably the best guard in the league until MJ. Oscar Robertson, don't need to go through him, but he won a ring and an MVP.

Kobe, five rings and an MVP. 11 first teams for Kobe, by the way. James Harden, three Final Fours, an MVP, six top five MVP finishes, six first team OMS. And even though Harden has never made the finals as the best guy, he made it with OKC as the sixth man. You could build a contender around Harden. We saw it. We haven't really seen it with Dame. I think that's a fair thing to bring up. Curry, four rings, two MVPs, you know, the Curry thing. Dwayne Wade, three rings, two top five MVPs, two first teams, three second teams.

He's more in the Dame waters a little bit, but he had the 2006 finals and he was the second best guy with LeBron on those Heat teams. And then Westbrook, who you would say, well, Dame had a better career than Westbrook. Did he? Westbrook made who you would say, well, Dame had a better career than Westbrook. Did he? Westbrook made the finals in 2012. He was second best guy in that team. Almost made the finals in 2016. He won an MVP.

He had two first teams and five second teams. It's at least like a real argument. And I think when you look at Dame, he only had that one 2019 round three, got bounced. He's only had one top five MVP finish. He's only had one first team on NBA and four second team on base. Really, really good top 75 career. But the piece that's missing is, have you been on a really good team? Have you made a real run at it?

Which is why, you know, I think this Milwaukee trade is so much fun. This is his real chance. I get nervous about a couple of things with this trade. One is that if you look at the 33 and older guards who average 22 points a game in a season, Jordan did it twice, Curry did it twice, still going. Kobe did it three times, Jerry West twice, Sam Jones once, Hal Greer once.

That's the entire list. Now the NBA is different. We have more three-pointers now. It's easier to score. Scoring is the easiest it's ever been. Guys can play at a longer age. So I'm not ruling out Dane being good for the next three years, but just pointing out history is saying be a little nervous. In general with guards, like Chris Paul, we saw from age 35 to 36 to 37, it just dropped. But that's two years older than they, and maybe it's fine. I just worry about guards. We have not a lot of instances with guards in their mid-30s of them either peaking as players or being able to sustain whatever success they had during their prime, it always starts to go down with really no exceptions, except for Steph Curry. He's the only non-exception. So if your case is

Dame's as good as Steph Curry, or Dame can be as potent as Steph Curry on a winning team, you know, Steph Curry's better than Dame, but I'm not going to argue that he couldn't do a lot of the stuff Curry did in Golden State. The bigger issue for me, the age I'm definitely worried about. Dame has not been healthy the last couple of years, and we have not seen him play nine straight months at playoff basketball with a big bullseye on his back. Everybody coming after you, you're the best team. We haven't seen him do that ever, much less in the last couple of seasons. So can he stay up?

Can he stay healthy? That's one thing. The defense with Dame just got kind of swept under the rug the last couple of days. And I don't really understand it because there's five categories of defensive player. I feel like there's, there's excellent. There's good. There's average. There's not so good, and then there's bad. And I think Dame's a bad defender. I think the stats back it up. His defensive rating last year was 245 out of the guards. He's the 245th guard for defensive rating.

117.4 individual defensive rating. He's 483 overall. Portland's team's always defensively. It was the Achilles heel for them. Partly because of Dame, because he couldn't guard anybody. He's too small. And, you know, think about what we saw from the playoffs the last couple of years. I think about the 2020 bubble Celtics playoffs, not infrequently, because I think that team had a

chance to potentially win a title. What happened? Everyone hunted Kemba Walker. It was hunting season. It's like, where is he? Got to get a switch. Got to get Kemba Walker guarding somebody who's bigger or got to beat him off the dribble. And it just became a hunt session with him. And basically he got played out of the league. He's not in the league anymore. You know, we had this with Isaiah Thomas too, in the mid 2010s. I think it's been an issue with Kyrie Irving. The Celtics certainly went at him in the playoff series with Brooklyn a couple of years ago. Curry, you saw who I think is a better defender than people give him credit for, but the Lakers who were big and physical and they went after him and really tried to wear him down.

And he's a much better defender than Dame is Jordan pool is somebody that got hunted in playoff series. Recently, Chris Paul, obviously is a big one. Jalen Brunson. Remember, remember what the heat did to him? Uh, uh, Mitchell, when he was on Utah, this was a huge issue. And then Trey young, obviously I, my fear with Dame is he's a DH. And I think in Portland, part of the reasons he was able to put up the stats he did was because he wasn't playing defense, right? It was just, how many points can I score? My team isn't very good and I'm just going to do my thing. He's an incredible offensive player, but how much of a trade-off is the defense, right? Well, you think, all right, well, Milwaukee, they're really good defensively. They'll be able to protect him. Here's the team.

Giannis, Dame, Lopez, Portis, Middleton, Connaughton, Bo Champ, Crowder. Who's guarding Trae Young on this team? Who's guarding Jason Tatum? Here's a partial list of guys that I don't think this team will be able to guard this season. Devin Booker, Tatum, Butler, Trae Young, Kyrie, Curry. Who's going to be chasing Curry around the screens? Dame lowered? Good luck. SGA, Luka, Mitchell, Murray, Edwards, Brunson, Jock, Garland, Fox, Halburton. Are they

going to be able to cover Derek White? I don't know. The way this team is constructed, they are not going to have the ability to guard other guards at all, which means they're just going to have to be in a shooting match with them, right? It's going to be not much different than what's going to happen with Phoenix, where they're just literally going to have to outscore the other team. I've just watched too much playoff basketball over the last couple of years where it's like, if you have that weak link on defense and you're playing a team that's smart enough, they're going to go after that weak link. Like think about them against the Lakers, right? The Lakers figure their crunch time. Let's say they

make the finals. It's Milwaukee and the Lakers and Lakers crunch time. They're going to have LeBron and Davis and Austin Reeves. And I don't know, a shooter and a point guard, whatever. All they're going to be doing is trying to find where Dame is on the court and going after him. What about when they play Boston? Boston puts out White and Brogdon and Tatum and Brown and a center. And all they're going to be doing is trying to make sure Dame is covering somebody who has the ball who's now torturing him. I think it's a real problem for them.

And what's funny is they gave up Drew's defense and, you know, what they gave up on defense, which is significant, and they gained an offense. It might end up just being a wash and they might just be a different version of the same team where they still have a huge flaw. It's just on the nobody brought up the defense. I agree. He's an amazing offensive player. And what's cool about this trade. And what I'm excited about as a basketball fan is can he go up a level, right? A lot of these stats he put up, especially the last couple of years, they didn't mean anything. They were, he was on bad teams. Like who cares? Ultimately, Bradley Beal scored 30 points a game on the wizards. Who cares? I think most really good offensive players, if they're on a bad team can get between 25 and 30 a night. Can you do it nine months in a row? Can you do it when you're getting hunted on defense all over the place? How much can Milwaukee protect him?

And what does he have in the tank at age 33 with 900 plus games on the odometer already. I'm still afraid of the bucks, but people have like Fandle had them as no, you know, best odds in basketball. And I think most people feel like they're the favorite now. I don't feel like there's a favorite. I think you can go through every team, Boston. I could, I'm scared of Porzingis. What's going to happen with Jalen Brown. Now that he has contracts. Can Peyton Pritchard? All these different things. Philly, God only knows. Miami, they're unquestionably worse.

Yeah, Milwaukee is going to be really good. But depending where Holiday lands and how this all plays out, I just think it's still wide open. And the other piece, so if you're just talking Boston, Miami, Tatum kills Milwaukee. I have no idea why. Boston is kind of built to at least stay with Dame. And Derek White is about as good of a person you're going to have to try to keep Dame in check at least. And Boston's done a really good job of guarding Giannis over the years.

They don't have Grant Williams this year. But I just don't think, I think there's as many ways this goes wrong as it goes right, I guess would be my final thought on this. Because for what they gave up, especially with that 29 unprotected and the two swaps and, you know, they are all in on this team. And you know, my theory, when you go all in on a team, you better think you can win. Not positive, but it's an awesome trade. It really is. It makes the league

so much more fun. Dame and Giannis together. I'm going to enjoy watching Portland. I still have my eight in stock. Watching Phoenix fans slowly realize that Dirk Krishna isn't the answer is going to be fun. And then we'll see where Drew Holiday goes. So really fun trade. We're going to talk about a little bit more with a diehard Bucks fan, Ben Thompson, in one second. Let's take a break. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers,

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Enrollment required. Keep your receipts. Other conditions apply. See pennzoil.ca slash warranty for full details. All right, we're taping this part of the podcast. It's Wednesday night because Ben Thompson is in a country far, far away. So the time zone difference basically makes it impossible

for us to record names. So we're doing this Wednesday night. His favorite team, the Bucs, just traded for Damian Lillard. You were on this podcast, I think three, four weeks ago, we were talking about tech stuff and all kinds of things. And I did not at any point say, hey, man, you think the Bucs are going to get Damian Lillard? What was your reaction?

You asked me on that, was I worried about Giannis? And I quite confidently said, no, I'm not. And, you know, it is a beautiful morning, Bill. I woke up, glanced at my phone, and have basically been preparing for this pod ever since. I was already very pumped up, very excited. Then I heard your little cameo on another ringer pod saying, you're not worried about it. Worse for the Celtics.

If Dame goes to Miami, just amazing. Cope really got me pumped up. I'm absolutely ready to go. Yeah. You know, after, after I taped that, I started thinking about Giannis and Dame in a pick and roll. And then I was like, wait, what am I doing? Giannis is the best role guy in the league. And he has never played with a good point guard like ever. Like I love drew holiday. God bless his soul. There's a reason why new

Orleans got Rondo to play with him. Like he's, he's not a pure point guard. He's never played with someone that can pull like Dame. Yes. There's going to be a fall off on the defensive side as far as guards go. The Bucs are going to score 160 points a game. It's not going to matter. Like, I've been debating. I've been arguing for years that Chris Middleton is actually a fantastic number two. And, of course, that's a debate that can raise far and wide on the internet. I'm very happy I had to debate about Chris Middleton as one of the best number threes.

That's for sure. Is he still in the league? I forgot. Did he play in the playoffs? Was he out there? I can't remember. I mean, this is the other bit about your take. You're like, oh yeah,

the Bucs sucked against Miami last year. Yeah, no shit. Cause Giannis was hurt. I think that's a pretty relevant factor. So yeah. How am I feeling? I'm feeling fantastic. And you know, the more we talk, the better I feel.

I thought for what you gave up, you have to talk about the windows. It's funny because Woz and I talked on Tuesday's pod about how I thought Philly should go after Dame because they were on this window with Embiid where it's like, how many more years do we even know he's going to be an elite center physically? Is he going to hold up? I feel like Milwaukee is in the same boat with Giannis. I don't know how much longer it's going to last, but there's definitely a window. That was my take on the last pod.

It's like, look what, what Giannis does in a few years, I'm a Giannis fan. And I fully recognize this is an old team that has basically no assets. Now they have zero assets and a drastically better opportunity to win in my estimation over the next couple of years. So that's great. I completely agree with your window take. And the window has just gone from being open to being like setting

a bit of dynamite in the wall and just blowing it, blowing it as open as can be. Vegas has this right. But here's the thing. That window could be a year for all we know, like this might not work in a year. And Giannis is like, you know what? I still want to go. And they'll be able to trade both of those guys for a shitload of stuff. Right. So to me, it reminds me a little bit of the Kauai Toronto thing where it's like, well, for this year, it's going to be great. And then maybe he'll stay. Who knows? I think you have a better chance of keeping both guys together for a couple of years, but who knows? Like if the season doesn't go the way you think this year, we've seen, we just saw it with the Brooklyn KD and, and Harden and Kyrie. And we're like, Oh my God, what's this going to, and then all of a sudden it was over in

a year. We've seen really fast NBA windows. So at least for this year, great. Um, you're still an old team. You're an old team with drew. And I think what, going back to the window point, drew is going to be a free agent in a year. Right. And they're thinking if Giannis wants out in a year, well, what do we do now? Do we, we can't pay drew 35 million a year. And what, what do you, what team are we even going to have?

But now with Dame, now, at least, you know, like, all right, we can spin this guy. He, we have them under contract.

They still have Giannis under contract for this year and next. So they have two years window, at least unless Giannis says I want out and then they can just blow it up. So I, I like where they are roster wise more than I did before with that said, I don't know. I just have people, I don't know if people are watching on YouTube or probably most people are listening to the podcast. If you're not watching on YouTube, what you can see is there's two little devils on,

on Bill's shoulders right now. One is the Celtics fan, just coping as hard as it can. The other one is the NBA analysts, like thinking this through and realizing, oh my God, this is a home run. And they're sort of tussling back and forth, but sorry, continue. I don't know. I wouldn't say home run.

I think it's a triple because you basically have to win the title again. You're going to have no picks. And there is, that was the case. That was the case. You just, I know, but you just gave away more picks.

Now it's fine. Once the honest is gone, who cares? It like, like, and I think any bucks fan, I will certainly speak for myself. Honestly, what I want to commit to doing,

I shouldn't say this, I'm going to get in trouble, but I will buy Bucs season tickets in 2030 when they win 10 games in the year because it is worth it to go for it now. It is 100% a home run. Of course, there are no guarantees in the NBA. All you can do is increase your chances of winning. And what Drew Holiday is good.

I actually, what happened in 2021, there's a few points to make. Number one, every time Drew Holiday was competent offensively, the Bucs blew teams off the floor. Like that was the governor on the Bucs engine for all the last couple of years. Obviously the last two injury issues,

but including in 2021, when he played well, we crushed teams. And so, but then he wasn't very good on offense. Then they go to the Olympics and Dame was terrible. And I might have to scrub some tweets talking about how terrible he was, to be totally honest. Drew comes over and was awesome. He was the second best player on that team. He was exactly what they needed.

And I think, though, that overinflated was exactly what they needed. And I think though that overinflated people's perception of Drew, he's an incredible defensive guard and he gets streaky and he can make these pull-up threes. He's just not a consistent offensive player. And in the context of the Bucs who have Giannis, who have Lopez, who have this, a very solid sort of defensive foundation, what we need and have desperately needed is someone that can get a shot with five seconds left on the clock that's why middleton was so critical he was literally the only guy who could get a shot in under five seconds and who could pass the ball to yannis in a pick and roll and he's not particularly good at that second one like like

this this addresses perfectly the need that the bucks have had for for years now. Perfectly the offensive need. He's one of the worst defensive guards in the league. I mean, you have to acknowledge that. He's really bad. He is. I freely admit, but if you have one of the worst defensive guards in the league, who is the number one player in the league that you'd like to have behind him? Okay, but you don't have really anybody under 6'7 who can guard anybody.

Who do you have? We'll figure it out. I don't have really anybody under six, seven who can guard anybody. Who do you have? Well, we'll figure it out. I don't know. The last time I checked the NBA had turned into a perimeter game where you need to like switch on defense and you got to stop teams from getting open threes. I'm pretty sure Lopez and Giannis aren't going to be able to help on that front. You know, I am, I'm willing to accept the challenge of having offensive shootouts with teams. If I'm running Damian is picking roles with Chris in the corner. The Damian is picking roles would be incredible. With that said, we've seen Dame succeed the most when he has the ball all the time and a lot.

Right. And when he struggled, even when he's played on the team USA stuff, it's like, eh, it's not really good. If he's vacillating between, I'm just kind of standing over on the side and whatever. Yeah. I said the ball a lot the last couple of years. And I want to know how that, how does that balance?

No, this is actually one of the hidden huge benefits of this deal, which one of the things Giannis is best as the role map. That's like what was unlocked the buck sort of in 2021. The problem is Giannis hates it. He complains about it all the time. He complains about being the highest paid role player in the league when he's asked to sort of be the role man in the pick and roll. And so one of the issues and things that I was worried about, particularly with the coaching change and having, you know,

Giannis' sort of handpicked guy come in, is that we're going to get a lot more of Giannis with the ball in his hands, which is fine in the regular season, but doesn't work out so well in the playoffs. That was actually one of my biggest concerns going into this year was just a shift. We are better. We've been better with the ball in chris's hand and and janice playing off of that one of the important things about dame coming in is he has the skill and the respect from janice to what to put janice in his right place on offense so i actually think that it's going to be more seamless than you think and and, and you, and when Dame sitting or whatever might be, and you put Giannis out there,

put Giannis in a bunch of bench players at the start of the second quarter, let him run rampant. When most teams only have one guy at most who can defend him. I mean, the Celtics used to have three, but alas, you know, I will see how Porzingis holds up in those Chris picking roles. I mean, I can understand the cope. I get it. You're really something. Here's another thing that would worry me if I'm a Bucks fan.

How many times in the history of the league has it worked when the best player in a team is like, I'm the GM now because that's what happened. You hired a coach that he wanted. You just made a trade that he wanted. And you traded picks in the future that he doesn't care about because he doesn't even know if he's going to be on the team two years from now. He doesn't care about two pick swaps and an unprotected first in 2029. He might be on Miami or the Knicks or the Clippers.

He doesn't care. I don't care either. That's fine. I mean, I think what you have to say about Giannis the GM is that, you know, if we were to get like a Giannis, the GM is that, you know, if we were to get like a, like a hockey stat, like power play percentage, uh, he's like batting 1000. So it's one of the most, it's one of the more impressive batting a thousand. So the Adrian Griffin, you're just, that's a blind thumbs up new coach.

Okay. Fair, fair, fair. The coach we'll see how it goes. I don't think, I don't think that that's going to make, I mean, we'll see, we'll see. But I mean, I, you know, the agitated, I think, you know, behind the scenes to get drew in the first place, this is a pretty cold blooded move. I mean, you go back by the way, remember the all-star draft team, Giannis picks Dame over drew LeBron gives him crap about it.

Right. There's the other question. This is sort of, this was floating around on Buck's message boards a few months ago was that, uh, you know, is Dame doing the Miami thing to depress his value such that he can get to the destination he actually wants to go to? Dame seems pretty excited about this, given all his rhetoric to date. I don't know. I have a feeling that Dame and Giannis are sort of already on the same page.

So the Middleton piece is going to be the big X factor now, because we haven't seen him play at the level that we've been accustomed from him for two years and he's older and he's going to be, I think it's a contract year this year. He was fine. He was fine until he slipped in the playoffs against, against the bulls, right?

Last year, certainly not a great year, although he was better against Miami. He was basically the only good, good buck against Miami. Although he got roasted on defense. What are you talking about? He got annihilated.

He couldn't guard anybody. No, no, on defense for sure. There's no question we have a huge hole as far as wing defense goes. And that's always been why the Celtics have always been our toughest opponent because Celtics have great wings. When you say it's a huge hole, are you talking about everyone under 6'7", who plays any guard or small forward

or swingman position? Because that's what I'm saying. The Marjan Beauchamp era has arrived. Can we talk about Drew? Because I continue to think he's the most underrated guy in the league. And I continue to think that that Miami series last year,

which was a five game series that, as you said, Giannis got hurt halfway through Jimmy Butler, basically left his body. Drew got torched in that series in a way that we've just never seen before. And now everybody's like, yeah, drew holiday, whatever. And it, to me, that series was just like a black Swan event. You have Butler plays the best he's ever played for a week and a half. Giannis gets hurt. You lost confidence at the end of two games. And by the end of game five, it just felt like the team died. But I still think that guy, I voted for him for all NBA.

He was like 19, seven and five, still one of the best defensive guards in the league. I'm not writing them off because Jimmy Butler got hot against him. No, I actually, the number one thing I am concerned about right now, and let's be clear, I heard about this trade four hours ago, so I'm still sort of delirious and high as you are sort of noticing. But I think the thing I'm most worried about is where does Drew Holiday go? Because he is a problem. Like, he is a phenomenally good player.

You know, as good as you want to talk about Giannis and Lopez being sort of rim defenders, that drop sort of approach works a lot better when Drew Holiday is fighting over a screen and bothering a guy from behind than it is when Dame gets hung up again and again. And there is an aspect the Bucs are going to have to outscore teams because any team with good mid-range shooters in particular is just going to eat. Like, it's going to get sort of pretty ridiculous. So I'm worried.

I am worried where he goes specifically because I think he is very good. I think he's at a rate where he was just the wrong guy for the box. Well, the three best candidates are the three teams you need to beat, probably. It's Boston, Miami, and Philly, I would say, would be the leaders of the clubhouse. No, we're not worried about Philly. Neither of us are.

Let's be honest here. No, I know. But if they can somehow stumble into a way to get him without giving him a maxi, we're not worried about Billy. Neither of us are. Let's be honest here. No, I know. But that, you know, if they can somehow stumble into a way to get him without giving him Maxie, it's more interesting going full circle with Drew going back would be, would be sort of pretty, pretty poetic. What an exclamation point. Miami would be brutal because he's like the perfect heat guy and they have the Lowry expiring contract.

They have the picks. I just don't know if I'm them, if I'm going all in on drew holiday, when there's other prizes that seem to be looming and the Celtics make the most sense from a basketball standpoint, if they can just do Brogdon and picks and keep everybody else. Yeah, no,

I mean, for sure. I mean, it'd be, it would be an incredible fit on, on the, on the Celtics. I mean,

like I said, that's sort of the big X factor here is, is where does drew do go? That said, pick your team in the league. I still, I still like our Celtics I mean like that I said that's sort of the big x factor here is is where does Drew go that said pick your team in the league I still I still like our chances I mean I the thing about Drew I agree with all your takes on him it just that's not what the Bucks needed the Bucks problem for years has been getting shots at the end of the shot clock getting shots at the end of a game and you know Damon Lillard is a flawed player. I've been, I've been discussing and pointing out the flaws for a long time. His strengths, however, could not be a better perfect for exactly what the bucks, the bucks need.

Can we do a little drew holiday 2021 celebration? Because I feel like everybody acts like the league just happened two weeks ago. Even somebody like eight. And I feel like is actually an undervalued asset. We watched that guy play in four playoff rounds. He got his ass kicked by Jokic last spring, and it's like, oh, Aiton sucks. It's like, Jokic is killing everybody. But the holiday piece,

some of the most clutch final stuff we've ever seen. The alley-oop was just one of the oh-my-God moments we've had in the NBA finals this century. It's still in my holiday defense. We went head to head against him with the Celtics in 2022. And some of the stuff he was doing was just out of control. I was just so terrified. I know his offense goes up and down, but the guy's a winner. If he's your third best player, your fourth best player, you're going to do well. Yeah, no, I mean, yeah. I mean, I don't want to dump on the guy at all. And I share with you, he's underrated.

I adore him. I'm so grateful for 2021. That alley-oop was one of the most incredible plays of my life. It was balls. He is too, right? It was an incredibly stupid play. Yeah, it was. By the way, Chris Paul should have gotten kicked out of the game for shoving Giannis in the air as long as we're here.

Well, I mean, Drew Holiday on Golden State, by the way, that would be that would be fairly, fairly terrifying, I have to say. Yeah, no, I'm with you. And, you know, it's just the NBA is a is a cold business. Like, I appreciate what he did. He wanted to retire in Milwaukee Valley College. He was fantastic in the community. And there's an aspect that is kind of a bummer. And it's sort of the appropriate counterpoint to when we complain about player empowerment and players leaving and going everywhere. Teams can do the same thing to players

that give a lot to the city and that contribute to winning. You say the same thing about Bud. Bud won a title two years, he's out. And that's the reality of having a top five player who's on probably the back end of his prime, just given his style and the way he plays. You got to do deals like this.

It is what it is. I'm grateful for him. I'm glad he won a title here. And I'm worried he's going to win a title somewhere else at the Bucs expense. But you still got to do the deal 100 times out of 100. You know what's the most fun team for him. I was thinking about it. Um, okay. See,

if they turn door and a bunch of their picks and just turn door into drew holiday and added him to all the guys they have. And it's with basically giddy SGA and drew holiday with like their size and Jalen Williams. And I, that I like, I think, okay, so he's going to be really good anyway, but if they were able to do an upgrade like that, that's a good one. Celtics. I think he would have a dramatic impact on,

but I just really like him. I've always felt like he was undervalued, but even her Alibaba, who I think is the number one drew guy. And he was like, well, it's Dame. You got to do it.

You know? And I had, I think I had Dame and my trade value, like 23 and I had drew at 37. Right. But, but it's, it's one of those things where relative to the bucks needs. Yeah.

Yeah. To like number three. Yeah. Well, the big, the big thing with Dame was just the salary and the fact that you're looking at 120 million in the mid 2020s, the bucks don't care. You know what? Credit to the bucks owners, credit to John Horst. I've been hard on both of them over the years.

But this is all you can ask for as a fan. There's no guarantee it's going to work, but the chips are all the way in. Their money is going to cost them a lot. And as a Bucs fan, I'm grateful for that. Give me the Bucs fan base just dame walking into

this whole universe. What should he be expecting? Because he was in a similarly, you know, Portland's another city that that's the only sports team in Portland. So it's crazy. Those fans are nuts. Milwaukee of the Packers, the Brewers and this, but what does he walk? Interesting. I mean, I mean, he's going to, I mean, the Bucks fans are going to go crazy for sure.

I mean, I mean, I've already, I've been rescheduling flights right now to make sure I can catch a couple extra, extra games. I think I, you know, that that's a stand in for, for lots of folks in that regard. No, he's going to be absolutely beloved. And you know, is it going to be cold? Yes. I think, you know, I saw some tweets about Dame's, Dame's entourage is maybe not as excited about Milwaukee as, as sort of, sort of day might be, but, but you know,

he's, he's going to be incredibly beloved. The fans are going to go crazier and be very supportive. I mean, this is the Midwest, right? Like we, we,

we fully support everyone often to our detriment, even when it's time to move on. So I don't think there's going to be any, you know, I think he's going to enjoy it. There's, it's going to feel like home. So if you had to guess,

when does Giannis leave after this trade? And I gave you the over-under. No, if I gave you the over-under of 2,027 and a half, would you go under or over? I would probably go over. I do think there's a good chance. This has dramatically increased

the chance that Giannis retires in Milwaukee. I agree with you. It's a lot different to be looking in the face of a Dirk Nowitzki type decline if you've won three titles, say, than if you've only won one. And, and so I, you know,

I think that Giannis, there's a part of him that would prefer to stay in Milwaukee. He's built a home there. He is sort of loyal. At the same time, I was worried about Giannis being too loyal,

being taken advantage of to a certain respect by the Bucs. This was so hard on the Bucs and their ownership for so many years. That was the third problem. Yeah. Dirk just kind of blindly trusting everybody. You're taking this guy for granted. And so, you know, I view the Giannis power play. And this is why I was so chill when I was on a couple of weeks ago. It's like, there's an aspect of I'm happy for Giannis that he is doing what you need to do as a superstar in the NBA. And, you know, and I think that, you know, I wouldn't be supporting you again, and maybe he leaves and we gave it a best shot. And I would not begrudge that because the bucks are going to be a disaster in five years. And you know what? You still do it every time. So it's all nothing but upside from my perspective. I forgot that you redid the Middleton deal.

So he's 29, 31 next year, player option after that. And we got Lopez too. So it's locked in for the next three years. So I think Giannis, maybe he does like a two-year extension or a one-plus-one for the next two. Yeah, because Giannis has a player option two years away. Same for Middleton. I mean,

the other thing about Giannis and those whole contract stuff, it was, it was not smart monetarily to do an extension. Now he can get more money if he waits. So even if he planned on staying, he was never going to sign that extension in, you know, honestly,

I think a big, you know, a big part of the, you know, you know, honestly, I think a big, you know, a big part of the, you know, sort of, well, is it a good thing? Blah, blah, blah, blah. The national media is just upset that they don't get a right about Giannis destination stories for the next year. And they're bitter about the lack of traffic. So sorry guys, bummer too bad for you.

Wow. Shots fired. I just, I love Giannis and I just want him to be on good teams. And I think the fear I had just as a basketball fan, not a Celtic fan was that the team felt like it was going to get old. I didn't know how long Drew's in the oh nine draft. They still might. Dame's old too. Right. You know? So I, yeah, I'm with you. That's why I wasn't chill about it. Like I, it would be sad to watch Giannis again. I think the Dirk Nowitzki situation is, is, is the analogy here.

It would just be a bummer to watch him dragging terrible teams to an eighth seed year after year. And, um, and I want, I want what's best for Giannis. And I think what's best for Giannis now is him staying in Milwaukee and winning, winning a few titles. And that's great for me too. Well, the last time they went all in, they got Drew and it seemed like they paid a lot, but it was worth it. They win the title. This time, paying a lot. No picks for the rest of the decade, basically.

I like this. I would much rather Gianna stay in Milwaukee because as you know, I love the continuity and I just think... It's good for the week. I think it's good for the week. I just like watching a guy go through wars

year after year on the same team in the same city. And you know, he's the one person I was, I was like that Dirk and Duncan stayed in one place. I like that Curry's going to stay in one place. We'll see. It feels like,

I don't know when the drew trade happens. My guess would be relatively fast. Cause it doesn't help Portland. Yeah. I think it happens within a week. There's basically an auction being run by Portland right now is what I would imagine. And we both agree that whatever they ended up with was, I just think, way better than any other rumored, especially if Ananobi wasn't on the table for Toronto, which I think is insane. If they were going to, you know, I've heard variations of Aiton and Barnes or Aiton and NLB.

I love Aiton for the Blazers, by the way. You mentioned this before. I came out of the Phoenix series with tremendous respect. And that whole playoff run, the number of guys in the league who can defend bigs and can defend on the perimeter, it's like four. And he's one of them. Now, obviously, is his head ever going to get screwed on right probably not but given the portland situation no pressure being there with scoot who is just a phenomenal running the team will get him involved will make him feel part part of it it's a it's a

a plus reclamation project if it doesn't work out who cares you stink anyway i think i think well and you have to spend the money on somebody. They have all young dudes, you know? So I thought I, I just, for the life of me do not understand what the sons did. Like if you're in the West, it's like, oh, cool. You turned Deandre Ayton and then Yusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen. That was your move. Like, that's how bad you want.

And sorry. And little. My, the best part about this is I don't have to watch Grayson out anymore. Oh my God. Oh, I had to read stuff today on Twitter. It's like two more role players for their rotation. It's like,

what you Nurkic is like unplayable against certain teams. See, I, I did a list of, I ranked all my centers. I had him as 29th. I thought, I think he's the 29th best center in the league. And Grayson Allen is unplayable in the playoffs

as we just found out for two straight playoffs. So I would just much rather have Aiden. Jason Tatum's reputation. Jason Tatum should buy Grayson Allen dinner at those Duke camps every year for the rest of his life because, oh, look at this incredible performance by Jason Tatum. Yeah, because Bud is not pressuring the ball. He's letting the Celtics walk it down and pass it

around until Tatum's isolated on Grayson Allen. He gets to score every time. Oh, nightmare. Well, nightmare fuel. You lost Javon Carter, who I think actually would have helped you this season, especially with the lack of primary defense. But yeah, I'm, I feel like we need to start some sort of eight and Island. I'm not giving up on Aiton. And I thought he was good in 21. I think he was in a weird situation. And I thought Portland stole him. I liked what they did.

All right. Ben Thompson, congrats. Oh, any tech stuff happen since last time we talked? Nothing major, right? Oh, yeah. Just like AI sort of total, total, you know, continued explosion. I mean, it's a good thing we got this opportunity to sort of podcast and I can just sort of be delirious on air before we're just completely replaced. So the timing is always all good.

How are we, I still trying to figure out how we're going to get replaced. Like you still need the opinions. Yeah. They can match our voices, but they can't replace us. Yeah, I know. Just the memes will be hilarious though. I know. All right.

We can, uh, you can listen to Ben on the sharp tech podcast and you can also listen, or you can read them on this trajectory newsletter, which is, uh, continues to be one of the most essential reads and, uh, very influential Ben. Congrats. Good to see you. Thank you. All right, Million Dollar Picks, week four. We are down 70K for the season.

I blame the Arizona Cardinals for upsetting my Dallas Cowboys parlay last week. I still have not forgiven Dallas yet. I blame the Packers for winning, but I had the minus one and a half. They won by one. And that line shifted. It was the Tic Tac Zone, which Cousin Sal and I talked about on Sunday, trying to figure

out these minus one and a half lines, which are now all the rage in Vegas. And they just seem like automatic stay aways every time. Weird stuff happens. We were trying to think of a name. And a couple of people suggested the Tic Tac Zone because they used to have these Tic Tac commercials where Tic Tac, it was 1.5 calories. And Tic Tacs are one of those things where you buy them and it's like, am I even enjoying this Tic Tac?

You don't know whether to chew it, it gets stuck in your teeth. Tic Tac Zone is perfect. I'm not messing around with the Tic Tac Zone again. Here are the other stay aways for me for week four. First of all, we have a London game, Jacksonville and Atlanta. And normally I'd be plowing into Atlanta plus three, but stay away. I'm just staying away completely. Totally.

The London game, especially in the West coast, you wake up. It's like seven 15. You forgot the game was on your team's already down 10 points. Weird things happen in London. I'm staying away from that. Kirk cousins is in Carolina and Minnesota zone three needs to win. I things happen in London. I'm staying away from that. Kirk Cousins is in Carolina and Minnesota zone three needs to win. I think Carolina is terrible. And I just keep staring at the Vikings and the line went from minus three to minus four. And I was, I was like,

am I going to do it? Am I going to do the Vikings? And, uh, I'm just not going to do it. I'm not doing Kirk Cousins on natural grass against a team with a decent pass rush. Who knows who the quarterback I'm just staying away. Sorry, Kirk cousins, uh, Joe burrow. I'm staying away. I didn't like, I don't like what I saw on Monday night. Uh, I like this spot against the Titans until you actually look at the stats and you see basically all the first downs, all the touchdowns, uh, the field goals. Basically these teams have had been the exact same offense for the last three weeks, the games in Tennessee. I don't know what to expect in that game. Stay away. Arizona, I'm staying away from you. I don't know what's going

on with you, but you've been in every game and you could easily be three now and it's just a blind stay away now. I don't know what's happening. Everyone thought that team was tanking. Obviously not. They're getting a ton of points in San Francisco this week. I'm out. I'm staying away. And last but not least, uh, Denver, Chicago, which we named, uh, a new guest lines category for on last Sunday, we called it the nuclear reactor spill. This is the worst game of all time. I actually started to feel myself talking myself into the bears plus three and a half because it Miami proved like anybody can throw in this Denver team. Denver's defense looks terrible. I'm staying away. What is good about betting on this game? How do you feel

good about yourself as a human being? I'm not doing it. Here's what I do feel good about. First of all, we've taken the Patriots. I know they're my favorite team, but I feel like I've been realistic about them over the years, both on, on guest lines, million dollar picks. They're getting six and a half points against the Dallas Cowboys. And there's some reasons for that, right? Dallas is really good. Patriots only scored 15 points against the jets. Mack Jones is Owen 10 in his last 10 games as an underdog against the spread. And it feels worse. Um, Mac Jones in 36 games has had one come from behind. When it feels worse than that, I just think this line should be three or three and a half because of the uncertainty with Dallas's offensive line. I know some guys are finally

starting to practice. I don't like Dallas in the red zone at all. I think the Patriots are going to, the Patriots defense is actually really good and did a nice job against Miami, you know, last week, Zach Wilson, whatever, but good pass rush. They can cover. And Dallas has some real red zone issues. This feels like a three or three and a half point line to me. You're getting an extra three points. My prediction is that the Patriots are going to be down by four points in the last two and a half minutes of this game. They're going to have the ball. Mac Jones is going to drive them down and then something bad is going to happen and they're going to lose by four and cover. And it'll be Mac Jones's first cover as an underdog in the last 11 games, but I'm still going to feel terrible about it.

So close game. I don't know if the Pats can win or not, but the six and a half is too much. That's one bet. Second one, we're going Colts minus one and a half at home against the Rams. The Rams without their left tackle, who they're saying like, oh, he's got a hamstring. Maybe he'll play. No, he's not playing. And even if he plays, he's going to be on one leg. And the thing with the Rams, they have this top heavy team. As soon as they start losing guys, all hell breaks loose.

I like what I've seen from Indianapolis. And I don't even care if the quarterback is my guy, Minshew or Richardson comes back. I like the minus one and a half. And I like this team and somebody weird in the AFC is good. AFC South is going to go nine and eight. So we're gonna take the Colts minus one and a half. I can't quit the Steelers. I'm sorry. The Steelers are minus three against Houston. And look, I like the Houston thing too. It was fun last week to watch them beat Jacksonville, but they got a kick return touchdown from their fullback. And just weird shit happened that game and Jacksonville didn't show up. And now we've overreacted. And the Steelers team that I thought had a chance to be the one seed potentially is only laying three against Houston at home.

Like, how great is that? Unbelievable. I think their defense can win this game by itself. So we're taking Steelers minus three. And then last but not least, the Cleveland Browns, who we talked about on Tuesday's podcast. I think this has a chance to be the 2000 Ravens, the, the, the return. And Vegas doesn't totally believe yet.

This line was Browns by three over Baltimore. Who's banged up, who has real offensive line injuries. They might have some injured guys playing on the offensive line this week. Um, their left tackle in their center. Uh, they have major wide receiver issues. They have major injuries on the defense. You can throw on them. And the case would be Lamar as an underdog is unbelievable. The Browns coming off a really impressive win. I'm going the other way. I think the Browns are good. I thought it was going to be the Steelers in this division.

And I think it's going to be the Browns. And this is going to be the last time we're going to get them under a field goal at home against an offense that isn't awesome. And this Baltimore team, the way they are right now, I just, I don't think they're ready for the Browns defense, the way it's looking these days. Plus you got the Browns Ravens revenge. It's constant revenge. They, the Ravens left Cleveland. So I. So just the gut feeling, this feels like a special game for the Browns. I loved what I saw from Watson last week, and we're going to take them. So we're doing 200K on Browns minus two and a half, Pats plus six and a half, Colts minus one and a half, and Steelers minus three. And then just for fun, we're going to put another 200K on a tease. I haven't done a tease yet this year, but we're going to do a seven and a half point tease.

We're going to take Casey who's playing the jets. And this is it for Zach Wilson. This is our last chance to bet on him. Let's throw a party. Let's throw a celebration Sunday night, Travis Kelsey, Taylor Swift, that's going to dominate. And then Zach Wilson's last start. Those would be the two storylines. I don't think we'll ever see Zach Wilson again after Sunday, unless it's the XFL and whatever the XFL merged into. So Casey, we're going to tease them from nine and a half to two. We're going to tease Philadelphia from eight and a half to one against Washington. Um, people are like Washington, they beat Philadelphia last year. You know, remember that Philadelphia, uh, Philadelphia's defense, I think is fantastic.

They're always going to be able to make plays. They're always going to get over 20 points. And if you watched Washington last week, just get destroyed by Buffalo. Um, nine sacks, Philly's defense is better than Buffalo's defense. So that's the second piece. And then the third piece, I had to put something on this Miami Buffalo game. I think Miami could win this game outright. Buffalo, Joe House made this point on East Coast Bias this week. Buffalo has played Zach Wilson, Sam Howell,

and the artist formerly known as Jimmy Garoppolo. I don't even think he's Jimmy Garoppolo anymore. I think he's Jimmy G, thanks. They haven't played a real quarterback and a real offense yet. And this line has been Miami getting two and a half points. Right now it's Miami getting three. We're going to take them to ten and a half. So this is a seven and a half point tease. Three teams. Chiefs, Philly, Miami.

And we get plus 105 on those odds on FanDuel. So we're putting 200K on that as well. And I just want to put a spiritual bet on the Raiders' money line if Aiden O'Connell plays, because that's my guy. I think if he plays for the Raiders, I think they're going to beat the Chargers outright this week. Mark that one down. Those are the Million Dollar Picks for week four. Snap into action this NFL season with FanDuel, America's number one sports book. Write down new customers, get $200 in bonus bets. Guaranteed when you place a $5 bet, that is $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, you can listen to my million dollar picks on this podcast where we go through

all my favorite bets we're also going to do a boost for the patriots cowboys game on sunday sal and i are going to combine and we're going to have nice little same game parlay for you we're going to probably agree on one leg and then each of us will pick one of the other two and stay tuned for that we'll both tweet that boost out when it happens fanduel is going is going to help us out. If you've been thinking about joining FanDuel, there's no better time to get in on the action. Great app, spreads, player pops, overrunners, futures, whatever you want. FanDuel also now live in Kentucky. Download the ad now, take advantage of their great special offers, boosts and more. Visit FanDuel.com slash BS and kick off the NFL season. FanDuel official partner of the NFL. You must be 21 plus and present in select states.

First online real money wager only. $10 for supplies required. Bonus issue does not withdraw, but bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. What a pleasure to have one of the hosts of Strike Force 5, a podcast that's going to come and go

and leave a nice fresh corpse after 12 episodes because all the late night hosts are back on TV. What is it, Monday? Everybody's back Monday? We're all back Monday, 10-2, except for a classic John Oliver move. He's going to be back on Sunday, 10-1. Oh, I got you. All right. Well, this is Seth Meyers.

We have a long history. We do. I think you were the first celebrity who ever asked to come on the pod. That's how I remember it. Yeah. I think that's what happened because you were listening to it. I was a fan and I was so surprised when you mentioned you were like, whoa, Jacko was on one or he sits. I'm like, wait, you listen to the podcast. I had no idea anybody listened to it. You came on and you were like, whoa, Jacko was on one. Or you said, I'm like, wait, you listened to the podcast? I had no idea anybody listened to it. You came on and you were, I think, one of the first celebrities I ever had on. You might be one of the first creators of content who I have been engaged with from the entirety of your career as well.

I feel like I was there from the very beginnings of your internet adolescence. Oh, Jesus. Brown floor. Yeah. Yeah. I'm a real, you know, if you could have bought in, if I could have gotten those early NFTs, I would be really cashing in right now.

NFTs are in trouble. Yeah, when we were doing it back in 09, it was 08 or 09, I can't remember what year, but we couldn't see each other. There was no Zoom. You would just call into some weird phone line. I would just listen to you. We would talk. We would try to figure out when the other person was no zoom i you would just call into some weird phone line i would just listen to you we would talk we'd try to figure out when the other person was going to stop talking it was it feels like a a million years ago we talked red sox dealers you were working

i was still at snl at that point yeah yeah i remember talking to you from the desk i had the entirety of my run there because i was a i was a one desk cast member at SNL, which is very hard to pull off. Who were the roommates that you had? Or office mates, I should say? Yeah, so I started with Eric Ken word, who is still at the show as a producer, and Dean Edwards, who was a words Yeah, Dean Edwards, I because I started with Dean Edwards, Jeff Richards and Amy Poehler. That was my that was my class. And then they left and I had Matt Murray, who's a really talented writer, who's gone on to work on shows like Parks and Recreation and many others. And then I graduated to having it by myself for the end of my run and having your own office, no matter how shitty an office it was. And I really do want to stress it was shitty.

That was a big deal. Yeah, it's like in college, if your roommate moves out with like a month left you're like this is amazing yeah and then jose uh jose took it over so it's it is now it's been an office that has been in the hands of just two guys for almost 20 years well we had this writer strike for almost five months weird timing from a late night standpoint because because the country is getting super interesting right now. So you have to sit out like the frigging debate we had last night. But then also the SNL with the 50th season.

Now, all of a sudden, we're getting thrown into that. So I mean, when does SNL come back? Are you going to be involved at all with the 50th season? And how does it play out? Because I haven't really heard any details. So I think they're saying the beginning of year 50 is the Olympics this summer. Is that maybe right when they're going to start announcing and getting it ready to go? But I would imagine it's going to be not this February, but the following February is when it all falls. But I think that unlike the 40th or the 25th, I would imagine you are going to be hyper aware of it

for the whole year. And I think that having recently had dinner with Lauren, it does seem like it's going to be pretty special. I, you know, I've talked about this before, but I've never been in a room with more famous people than the 40th, obviously. Right. And so.

What's 50 going to be like? Right. Because, you know, the thing about famous people than the 40th, obviously. Right. And so what's 50 going to be like? Right. Because, you know, the thing about famous people is if they don't die, they don't get less famous. So, you know, especially the ones that came to the 40th, if they're still around, you know, if you you're still Keith Richards, so you have that. And then you add in people who've been famous in the last 10 years who get to come as well. I will say, and it was really funny to realize that this is a problem that somebody like

Lorne Michaels could have all his fears are seeding. Like where is he going to put everybody? Because it just, you've been in that studio. It can't hold the amount of people that are going to want to be there. So we got, this is season 49, but then that season 50 celebration,

I don't know what the timing of that is, but it's hard to believe that that show's been around for a half century. It's just like, that's such a long time. Like when we were growing up, a half century just seemed like a kajillion years. Yeah, it seemed like meet the press. The only things you could believe

would been around that long were shows like that, where, you know, it'd be like black and white grainy Walter Cronkite. And it, you know, which is, I guess, what to young people today, those early episodes must look like as far as the sort of standard definition television. But yeah, it's going to be I think there's just going to be events all year long. And it's funny because I was I think I left only a year previous to the 40th. Yeah. And I felt I still felt very plugged into it. And I now realize that this time I'm going to have what I think a lot of cast members have when things like this come up, which is I wonder if they're going to ask me to do something, you know, because I felt like last time it was very

clear I was going to play a role. And this time, you know, because I felt like last time it was very clear I was going to play a role. And this time, you know, I think it might get close and you realize, hey, I think they maybe I think they maybe wrote it already. I think it might be done. Do you listen to the Carvey Spade podcast? You must, right? I just did it for the first time.

It hasn't aired yet, but I do listen to it. And it was it was so much fun to do as well. But I like that it exists. They're like the perfect guys to host it. And I don't know. I've listened to a bunch of them. There's been some really good SNL history. Like Jim Downey's episode I thought was really good.

But they've had some people where it's like, whoa, didn't know that story. It's a good chronicle, I think. I think they've done a really smart thing as well, which is a lot of the people that maybe haven't done a million podcasts talking about SNL. You know, there's like this whole sort of tranche of SNL people who were also there for all the craziest hosts and all the nuttiest stories. And they have done a very fine job of mining into those details. So you're like extended class because that those two thousands people, it's been fascinating to watch what happened over the last 15 years, right?

Like haters turned into like a European independent film director, basically. That last season was like, you know, he's just, he went to a whole other level. Then you have, I will say Barry,

Barry changed more over the course of its four seasons than SNL changed over its 50. Right? Right. Like, the first episode of Barry, you're like, oh my God, so funny. And then the last episode. I think that's what he wanted, though. That was like his intent the whole time.

Yeah. And I thought. It's super dark. I thought that the journey as a viewer was just fantastic. I have no criticisms at all a viewer was just fantastic. I have no, I have no criticisms at all. So you have him. Wouldn't have guessed that maybe in 2006,

like this is going to be his arc. You have Sudeikis who becomes the king of Apple TV. Yeah. With, with Ted Lasso, which was the, the show America apparently needed during the pandemic. The good,

the nice sweet anecdote to how all of us were feeling. So that happens. But you would have guessed he was, there was leading actor potential. But like none of that surprised me, but it was just, it was funny that it all blossomed like this decade. Yes.

It's also very, I mean, the craziest roommates ever is that Barry and Ted Lasso shared an office because those are the most divergent, successful television shows, certainly in the last five years. Totally. Right. So then you had you were there with Tina Fey. Yeah. Who created 30 Rock and has been obviously done a bunch of stuff. Polar was like your that was your sidekick. Yeah. I would say I was her sidekick, but I take the point. Yes.

She has all that that Sandberg does up but it's just kind of funny to look back now like that was a real class the way that we used to look at yes you know like we would look at like the Belushi class or like the you know the Phil Hartman Dana Carvey class and now as all these years later I was like ah that was definitely an era there was a there's a photo of because we got really lucky after the last writer's strike. We had a very small writing staff, which had people like John Mulaney and Simon Rich on it. So those are people that aren't even on camera. And then we had an 11 person cast.

And I look at the photo every day because it's right side right outside my studio. You have Daryl Hammond and Kenan Thompson who are still involved with the show. And then the nine uh the rest of us have all hosted which I think is maybe the only time that's happened because it's it's wig Maya Polar Forte Hater Sudeikis Fred myself I feel like I'm missing somebody um but it's uh that's fine you you even batted 90 that was that's it's a good group it was a bit it's uh's fine. You even batted 90 percent. That was that's it's a good group. It was a bit. It's a yeah. I mean, so you just look back at that and you realize, oh, yeah, we were there for one of the best eras of the course of the show. And it does really speak to how a smaller cast can sometimes be really beneficial to everybody's growth. I wonder where SNL fits in these days when you can just go on Instagram and watch golden retrievers jump into a septic tank. And then you just click the, go to the next reel and it's like, oh, there's a baby that fell over,

but the baby's fine. And then you go to the next reel and it's like, oh, that guy almost got in a car accident. And it's just like, now you've watched 75 straight reels over the course of 35 minutes. Like there was a lot less to do in the 70s and 80s, like when we were growing up. Well, even when we were growing up, I'm sure it was the same for you. I would stay up every Saturday

to watch SNL. And then the other nights of the week, I would watch reruns of SNL from the 70s. Right, right. Like my reels were just full episodes of old SNLs. Yeah, I wonder,

I, I read, how old are your kids now? Just seven, five and two. Yeah. So you're a while away. Yeah.

My, I have two still teenagers and I just wonder like, what are going to be their shared experiences with other people from there now they're kind of demo when they're like 38, you know, they'll have like stranger things and a couple of things like that, but it's not, we had, you and I grew up in, you know, different places. We didn't know each other, but I'm sure we had like 20 of the same movies, TV shows, comedians, whatever that we loved. Right. Well, there was only that one algorithm,

like show business made the algorithm. And now it's crazy because even when you talk about, you know, reels, you know, my reels, I, you know, it's hard to process that it's not what everybody's seeing when you scroll down, you know, because I'm, yeah. And I'm, so I'm seeing a lot of, old Red Sox highlights and old SNL sketches. And I'm thinking, wow, these guys, I'm so happy they're having their time in the sun. And you realize, well, no other people aren't seeing that. And so that was, you know, and, and, you know, every now and then, you know, people, I feel like they tweet a photo of, you know, just like 20 cardboard VHS tapes of movies from the 80s. And every one of them, I guarantee, is a movie you and I have seen 10 times. And, you know, it is a real back of my day thing to say it was better back then. But even now, when we try to make jokes about where we try to make a pop culture reference to a recent thing, even Stranger Things, for example, you realize it still doesn't have like the breadth and scope of making a reference to Terminator, a movie that came out.

Yeah. 80s, which just has like a stronger cultural grasp because so many people saw it so many times yeah i don't even know what like you know i think i'm the way my column and the way i wrote it in the 2000s and a lot of it were like these pop culture references or references that i knew people would get and i don't even know necessarily how you would do that now like if i was making i don't know if I dropped like an Outer Banks reference, would people get that?

But 20 years ago, I know if I'm dropping, I don't know, 48 hours or Midnight Run or something, I know people are going to get it, you know? And I think that's one of the things that's probably changed.

It's just a lack of things in common with everybody else. There's like even shows I've never seen like Dawson's Creek where I feel like I can get the reference based on the fact that it was it made a big enough ripple that you sort of caught it just by being adjacent to people who are watching it. And I don't know if that happens anymore either. Yeah, I remember there was an SNL sketch in the early 90s when Susan Day was the host

and they did a Brady Bunch versus the Partridge family. And it got to everyone in the early nineties when Susan day was the host and they did a Brady bunch versus the Partridge family. And it got to use like everyone in the cast. And it was just like the perfect SNL sketch for what the nostalgia, you know, early nineties, the way everybody had watched the Brady bunch of Partridge film, like literally everybody. So everybody probably had the highest bend diagram of if you're going to do

a nostalgia sketch, how many people are going to get that? I don't know what that is anymore i guess it would be friends seinfeld um there's probably a couple from that era like you could do i saw there was on instagram there was this brooklyn baseball minor league baseball team they had a lane dancing contest yes i saw that i was like oh that's something like everyone would get. Like everyone remembers the Elaine dancing. Weirdly, SNL would probably score better with an Office parody today than with a parody of anything. Oh, yeah. Office, definitely.

How is your you've been doing your show for almost 10 years now. Yeah. Now you have to start doing it again. When you started that show, you know the the online social was important but it wasn't everything that's right and now you're trying to reach a generation where i don't know if people 25 and under know what channel things are on i don't think i don't think my daughter knows what channel anything is on i think she knows where the apps are. Yeah.

It's so funny. And she just had to get to YouTube. I was, I have a really, a deli guy I really like. I get my coffee from. And he very sweetly has been giving me, once a week, he doesn't make me pay because he feels bad that I'm not working. And I'm really heartbroken that he's going to find out the strike is over and I'm going to start paying full freight.

But I remember the first time I talked to him, he's like somebody else had told him I was on TV. He didn't watch my show. He goes, what? He goes, what channels? And I was like NBC. And then he said, no, but what channel? Because he's still like four. You know what I mean? Right. So that's a thing even I don't know. So I don't want to be too judgmental of people that don't even know what NBC means. But yeah, it's a trip. I think interesting thing that happened for us

and I've said this before, but, you know, we started, I think, the conventional wisdom was the only things that worked virally were short. And the only thing that works virally for us

is the longest thing we do in the show. You know, Closer Look is the people that watch that on YouTube. That's by far the highest consumed piece we have digitally. So it's been nice for us to realize, I think, far the highest consumed piece we have digitally.

So it's been nice for us to realize, I think in the way that, you know, look, podcasts, I don't think anybody thought in the way that you listen to talk radio. I don't think people ever assumed you'd listen to long form interviews the way podcasts provided them.

But people do weirdly have patience for things if they're rich in content. Yeah. And that's what A Closer Look has been for us. Yeah. Well, you probably have people that they only watch that, right? And they don't know any other piece of the show. Yes.

That is certainly based on the digital data takeaway. It would clearly be that it's A Closer Look. Yeah, because my son consumes Jimmy content, Jimmy Kimmel, right? He has no idea what, no idea. Well, cause he's known him forever, but he does like, he likes to prank stuff. Um, and he's watched just any subscribes to the channel. So he'll pick and choose. He has no idea what channel Jimmy's on. Like none. Like if I was like, Ben, I'll give you $50.

If in the next five minutes you can find where Jimmy shows, he just wouldn't know. But he's seen probably, you know, 50 cousin Sal pranks and he's seen, you know, a hundred Guillermo videos and things like that. And I don't know, maybe that's, that's where it's going, but it's so weird. It's so, I can't wrap my head around it because of what we grew up with, where you just watch Letterman from 60 straight minutes. We also, I think it was 2013, tail end of my time at SNL, shot one of those whole network promos that ended with everybody walking outside. So you had the Today Show and Brian Williams.

Oh, the old school network promos? Yeah. And those used to be a huge thing that I genuinely was excited to watch. Yeah. I mean, look, we had, you'll admit to it, right? You had a genuine rooting interest in some networks over the others.

Oh, yeah. You know, I remember being gutted as an NBC kid, which I would have called myself, so sad that Moonlighting was ABC. You just felt like if we just had moonlighting, we would be the perfect network.

Yeah. I always felt when, when CBS canceled the white shadow, I was like, I'm out. You guys, you guys are fucking dead to me. It was right over to ABC NBC.

So I always had a grudge against CBS after that. We, one of the stories that we have that I'm sure we've talked about way back when, but maybe a lot of people don't know is you were like not unclose to maybe hosting a show on ESPN. I was, that was a real thing. Like it was going to be a real thing for, I don't know, maybe six months there. What was that? Like 2012, 13 range? Yeah, it was right in the run up to this deal. And I will say, I don't think it hurt that NBC knew that I was talking to ESPN.

I hosted a couple of SPs and I hope I'm right here that I sat down with John Skipper and probably Connor shell. Right. Would that be who I, yeah. So, um, and I,

I remember having a couple of meetings with those guys. You know, the SPS have been a great experience for me. I love the creative freedom they had given us. And I really liked John and I really liked Connor. They were they were two straight shooters. And you had me and Maura just badgering them. Yeah, you do this. We have to do this.

We're just killing them. Made it. I, you know, look, this is what made it an easy decision in the end not to do. They wanted live and I don't think they were wrong, but you know, I just lifestyle wise, I couldn't imagine doing on the East coast as well. Right. Like I know a Kimmel did it for a while. It's basically going to be like your version, but with more guests and stuff of what Van Pelt ended up doing, which probably makes way more sense for what ESPN is than what we were talking about with you, I think. Yes, I think so, too. I mean, I think it was I mean, you must have heard it more than even I did.

But the amount that people would say, you know what show there should be the Daily Show for sports. And I've always contended that the Daily Show for sports was a good, irreverent sports center because you don't actually want comedy. People are fans of sports in a way they're not fans of politics and they don't actually want to watch, you know, a comedy about basketball games. They like to see highlights about basketball games with some guys that seem funny and fun to be around. You know what it was? It was probably an idea that was about 10 years too late, but I still think it would have been awesome if you had come and tried to do it. And you were the best person to do it because you actually follow sports. And as we've seen on NBC, you know, it was the late night show, but I'm not sure. I think over the 2010s,

people stopped watching ESn in quite the same way because we had the internet you know yeah once the internet really rounded in a shape where you could be like how'd my guys do last night oh i can watch these videos of my team and so the the sports center impact i think was lessened and then a lot of it headed more toward breaking new stuff like the dame lowered stuff yesterday where it's like day more just got traded. Let's go to so-and-so. And now it's two people in a box. But in like the early two thousands, I think it would have crushed. I think it would, I think it would have crushed, but I think it would have been, I think I would have started at that height of it. And which is never kind of where you want to get.

Right. Right. And as it's, as the years pass where you want to get right right and as it's as the years pass you're like oh no yeah because some things like pti i feel like is almost the same from an essential standpoint as it used to be back in the even podcast breaking stuff like the day miller trades yesterday perfect example like we had two podcasts up even before pti came on but it's still like those guys and they're still coming in and it's right before dinner. And it's basically a 23 minute show. And it's just like, cool. I want to watch them at least do the first segment. And I don't feel like that's changed that much, but some of the other stuff has. And I just think in general,

why I think I was really lucky to get into this model, you know, this network model, when I did, like Wilbon and Kornheiser, like, you know, them now, but the reason you know them is there was a time where they're, they you got to know them, because there was less competition. And, you know, that was very much look, I my whole career, the reason people know me is that I've been on NBC shows that people have watched. And I think, you know, it is more democratized now, but it is harder and harder to break out for people because there aren't those places where everybody goes. And so I think, you know, while while PTI was a super novel format and and such a big part of its success is how the producers constructed it. It would be hard to do it without those two guys now. That's how I always feel.

And have you done the guest hosting that much? Or what happens when you just go to reruns when you're not doing it? We always just go to reruns. The guest host days, it's a shame the guest host days are. I remember talking to Steve Martin about. Because he guest hosted, uh, the tonight show. Um, and, and what a fascinating idea, not just to guest host, but to guest host a show that, you know, 20 million people. Yeah. Uh, well they used to have,

I mean, Chevy would host it and David Letterman, they would have the biggest stars, Burt Reynolds, the biggest stars of that era hosted it. I thought, because I went away the last two years in the summer for five weeks, and I thought about having guest hosts. And it just seemed weird to me. Like, it's the Bill Simmons podcast. Here's your guest host. I just couldn't wrap my head around it. But I did think about it. I did wonder, like, all right, what would happen if we did this and just had different people?

Maybe I'll do it next year. I don't know like jimmy tried it and uh i you know i mean you know kimmel now especially because you've been working with them and kimmel's just openly rooting against every guest that was not to do well i don't know he's so competitive but he's checking the ratings to make sure that they got crushed he's like yes he the most. It's really spending time with Kimmel has been such a gift because isn't it? Isn't it something? Because he's so affable that it takes you a little bit of time to see where the hard edges are. And then when you see him, it actually gives you great relief because you're like, oh, good. You're also human because he really is.

And let me just say, you know, obviously it's a podcast with five hosts. Yeah. But Jimmy is as just a human being. Jimmy is a host. You want to go to a party at his house. You want him to make you feel he's fundamentally a host. Yeah, he's fundamentally. Yes.

So like he's the most natural person to have one of these shows because he is so he just makes everybody feel good. So then, yeah, it is. It is fun when you realize that he also is mad at somebody. It makes me so happy. Well, he's it was the perfect storm, right? Because he hadn't really been he hadn't done a show for like four months. Then you guys are trying to figure out this podcast. So then he takes control of that.

But he also has more spare time than he normally has. So he's just like all in on every aspect. It's like Belichick planning for the Cowboys. I mean, we would never have done it without him. I should, I want to give you a shout out as well. One of the reasons, you know, we were talking this week is I wanted to thank you. I know you're the huge part to get Spotify involved with Strikeforce 5. Thank you so much for that. But yeah, it was funny. At one point I realized, oh,

Jimmy's working on this way, way harder than the rest of us. And it did not go unnoticed by us. Well, in the early days, I was like, because I was trying to help him, but you can't really help Jimmy. He's got to come to his own conclusion and then ask you. And I was like, do you maybe need like a project manager? Like somebody that can just be like the air traffic controller. It's like, I'm the project manager. I'm like, okay, all right, good. What was that like to have all five? I mean, so it starts out with you guys are just doing Zooms during the strike. Yeah. Trying to just talk about the common issues, problems, things everybody's facing with their staffs. And then all of a sudden, at some point, everybody realizes like, oh, this would be really funny as a podcast. I think it was. Yeah, it was a combination of

dread that it was going on as long as it was. And we had joked early on that it would make a good podcast. But I sort of have my doubts because so much of what was funny on the Zooms was unarable to the public. And Jimmy said, look, we're this really nice opportunity to help out our staffs. And I think that was the tipping point for all of us to jump in and do it. I and, you know, the heartbreaking thing about it coming to a close is they do think they're getting better. I think we get better.

I think they're both getting better and we're running out of questions to ask each other. But, you know, the crosstalk has gone down. There's a little bit more structure. And I'm going to say, you know, if you haven't listened,

you certainly don't have to go back. But episode five is genuinely. Yeah, that was the best episode. It genuinely is special podcast episode where Fallon tries to host a newlywed style game. And it's just a shit show. And we're just piling on Fallon for her,

how poorly he's asked these questions to our wives. And he is such a good sport about it. And the only reason to worry, and I will, I will just tell you, we, yesterday we recorded part two of the, the newlywed game and it went equally as bad.

Oh, good. We were very worried we wouldn't be able to replicate it, but it turns out it was also really fun. I am psyched how it turned out, because five people on a podcast in five different places is just really hard. And you guys are like the most trained professionals possible. And it's still really hard

because people are talking over each other. It's just like a bad experience for the listener. And people have to know when to lay in, lay out. Nobody can talk for too long. Like it's the ball's got to move around almost like a basketball team, right? And there's so many ways it can go wrong. Yeah, I was describing it.

I described it at first episode to someone as what if you had a football team that was all quarterbacks and no one could block, tackle, or catch? Right. But we all found our roles. And it will be. It's like you each have to find

like whatever your job is on the podcast. Like, all right, I guess I'm like the counterpuncher, wisecrack guy. And then it kind of goes. And somebody's got to be the air traffic controller at least a little bit.

It's nice. I feel, I think that John Oliver and I kind of just kind of linger around the three-point line. You know, we let the other guys

take the doubles. Yeah, yeah. In the corner. Yeah. All right. The real reason you're here is talk Steelers. Great.

So I picked them to be the one seed. I have wagers on them. I really liked the spot they were in. And I think my instincts were right that it was an AFC North team. But now the more I'm looking at it, I think it might be the Browns. I'm not giving up on the Steelers, but the Browns are absolutely terrifying. I would not blame you for giving up on the Steelers. I am a little I still have my doubts about Deshaun Watson, but I didn't watch the you know, I watched him against Steelers.

I didn't watch him last week. And it does seem like his numbers certainly look. He was good last week. Yeah. Yeah. That's the other problem with social media. I only saw his crazy backwards lateral play and assumed. You're like, oh my God, what's he doing? He's forgotten. He's forgotten which direction is which. Yeah. I, you know, I, I'm a little bit less, you know,

I'm always bullish on the Steelers from an irrational place. I certainly wanted to see a little bit more of a, of a leap from the offense. I, there should be a German word for the dread you feel when every fans from other teams know your offensive coordinator's name. You know what I mean? Oh, that's a great point.

Like Matt Canada. Yeah, you should never know the offensive Canada. Yeah, he should be anonymous. You should know the guys who are the, you know, Biennium, right? You should know the guy

who's the name of the best offense in the league. But if other fans feel bad for you because you're their offensive coordinator, that is a terrible sign. Be enemy, right? You should know the guy who's the name of the best offense in the league. But if other fans feel bad for you because you're their offensive coordinator, that is a terrible sign. And we have that right now with Matt Canada. I, you know, again, I'm a listener, Bill. And I do think you pointed out this week

that we did play the Browns and the Niners and they are looking like really tough defenses. So with the coming games, I think if we were going to the, with the coming games, I would, I think if we were going to the buy three and two, I'll feel okay. But I do feel like we should be four in one. If we really expect to be a Superbowl contender.

Yeah. You handled. So this week's interesting because you're playing this frisky Texans team. Yes. Right. Who can throw the ball they've overachieved in these games, but it's a team like before the year I had this as a W right. Steelers 100% favorite by three and a half. But I think before the year would have been like Steelers by seven and a half. Yes.

I'm a little concerned about the offense, not just the coordinator, but, um, I don't know, Najee Harris looks like he's got concrete sneakers on. And I just there's a lack of explosive anything other than the Pickens can have the 50. That's what worries me, because like the first down stats are really bad for them. It hasn't been a lot of fun to watch. I will say I wanted to write a lot more. But the key thing is maybe those first two games just oh, man, we had bad draw. It's put the Browns and Niners. And then it's like, oh, and then you play last week and you're like, oh, maybe we can

do some stuff. So I'm not giving up, but I do think the Browns might be the team in that division. We'll find out this week. I think that it's incumbent upon the Steelers defense to make Stroud look as bad as the Niners and Browns defense made picket look, right? Yeah. This is, are you, because again, this only works if the defense is good anyway, right? We were supposed to have a better offense and an excellent defense. An incredible defense, right? You know, I think what Stroud's done has been fantastic, and it's very exciting to have a new talent like that in the league,

but he is a rookie quarterback, and historically Tomlin has done very well against rookie quarterbacks. I'm still in on picket. I think he's a, he's got a little moxie to him. I like he'll, he'll run every once in a while. He'll take off for like 20 yards. Um, I'm still betting on the, I think they're going to be a playoff team, but I don't know if they can pull up the division. Did you think during the strike you were going to just watch a ton of red Sox games? Like this would this would be great to spend more time with my baseball team to watch the. Oh, wait, there's nobody on the team. It dovetailed pretty poorly with free time, having extra free time and the direction of the team. Yeah. You know, again, I

I have reached a place where I know that I have house money now after that 10-year period of time we had. But it just feels empty when these games mean nothing. I've never been able to reconcile the Mookie trade. It's crazy. I thought it would get better, and now they're going to be in the playoffs again. And you walk around LA, and it's Kobe jerseys and Mookie jerseys and that's it.

Yeah. And it's just, it's, it's, it's not awesome. What else did you do during the strike? Anything fun? Spent time with the fam. I did spend a lot of time. I spent a lot of time with the fam and they're a good fam. We had a excellent summer.

I don't love being outside and on the beach, but we were outside and on the beach a lot. And at this point I just go where my kids want me to go. And that was that was like I started a podcast with my brother. Yeah, I was going to ask you about that. I can't believe why did it take till 2023 to you for you to have a podcast with your brother? And when I invited on what the hell? Oh, my God, we would love to have you on. Now, we recently had Kimmel on. He pointed out the one reason that we probably hesitated having a podcast together is we sound identical and it's almost hard to know which one of us is talking. And then my brother very unkindly said, because I know this

is a burn. He said, the way to tell is if you're telling a story about Lorne Michaels, it's not me. And I was I found it very, very unkind of my brother to say. But, you know, I look, I really enjoy podcasting is a lot of fun. Getting a podcast off the ground is very stressful. And so I do. While I can't believe it took this long to do it, I understand that having this window of time was the right time to actually figure out what we're going to do. So that's family trips. Yeah. Explain the podcast for 10 seconds. Yeah. Family trips to the Myers brothers. We talked to people, you know, celebrities about the trips they took as kids and the trips they take with their families. Now it's very it's nice. It's easy listening.

It's funny or not funny. But, you know, of course, most celebrities today took really shitty trips as kids. Right. Like so few of them were wealthy children. And that so it's very it's a it's a real like stars were just like us when they were kids going to Florida by car. So Kimmel could come on like seven times on that podcast. Like he could be here. Yeah. Kimmel Kimmel had a lot

to say and I feel like we cut him off. All right. So your show's come back Monday. Yeah. We're going to do an hour long, hour long, closer look the first night. No guests. We're just going to catch up. Oh, wow. Yeah. We're going to we're just going to let it rip. What was the topic that you felt like the most upset that you missed out on during the five months? I know this is, you know, get my mind out of the gutter. The Congressman Boebert's behavior at the Beetlejuice musical. Yeah. And just the quality of the security camera footage was was shocking to me. Yeah, that was that was good late night fodder. There was a few things over the five months where I was like, oh, that would have been a good one. Yeah.

I mean, unfortunately, we do live in a time where nothing that happened in the last five months will matter because the next five months will sadly make it seem like a time of great calm and restfulness. How did you feel about Mike Schur becoming the wolf from Pulp Fiction during the writer's strike? Well, this is such a good question. Was he wearing a tuxedo in the last two weeks? What was what was he dressed like?

Well, you know, so again, Mike Sher, one of my oldest friends, and he was on the negotiating committee. And I have a question. I never quite knew what was a fair amount to ask him. Right. You have a friend in the room. You're deeply curious, but you also you have to imagine he's getting texts from about 100 people at a time. So I would do a very sly thing where I would send him, you know, the results from my latest immaculate grid and then say, you know, how'd you do today?

And he's right. And then, you know, I'm like the seventh back and forth. I'd be like, how's it going in the room? You know what a lunatic he is? He only allows five minutes for immaculate grid. Yeah. Like that's how disciplined he is. He's a man of great discipline. I had to stop using it because I would just spend like a half hour trying to figure out who from the 70s was on the Buffalo Braves and the Cleveland Cavaliers at the same time.

And I was like, I know I can get this. And I was like, this is not healthy. Doesn't it break your heart knowing there was a five-year period where you just would have crushed Immaculate Grid? Oh, yeah. No day. Early 30s.

Yeah, early 30s, it would have crushed it. My baseball card years. I feel like even that, like when I was 14. I still love it. I think they even that, like when I was 14. I still love it. I think they shouldn't put a clock on it though. I think, I actually think

it would be more interesting if it was like, you have five minutes to figure out these nine things and, you know, because then you'd have to take more guesses

and stuff like that. All right. Seth Meyers, you're going to be, you're doing some comedy this weekend? I'm doing, I'm doing Parents Weekend

at University of Rhode Island on Saturday night. How about that? Oh, fun for you. Great to see you. This is like 15 years for us podcasting. I know we got to do it

again soon. Yeah, yeah. Strike Force 5. How many episodes left? I think three to air. You know, we do and we did one with Letterman. Did you hear that?

Oh, I'm aware. Yeah, I'm aware. I think that drops that that's going to drop either today or tomorrow. And then three to go, 12 total. All right. Good to see you, my friend. Good to see you, too. All right, that's it for the podcast.

Thanks to Seth Meyers and Ben Thompson. Thanks to Isaiah Blakely for producing today. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti as well. I will see you on Sunday night with the cuz following Cowboys Patriots. You know, something's going to happen. Have a great weekend. Go Emerson. Go Harvard Wesleyan. I don't have.

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