The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Disney Shocker, Apex Mahomes, Zach Wilson’s Nadir and Thanksgiving Lines With Matt Belloni and Cousin Sal

Episode Date: November 21, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Matthew Belloni to discuss the news that Bob Iger is coming out of retirement to reclaim his old position as CEO of Disney (2:15). Then, Bill talks with Cousin Sal about Patrick Mahomes pulling out another come-from-behind win vs. the Chargers, Jets-Patriots, Vikings-Cowboys, Browns-Bills, Colts-Eagles, Bill's updated QB tiers, taking the Commanders seriously, Steelers-Bengals, cross-off teams, and more (30:16), before guessing the lines for NFL Week 12 (1:07:31), and closing out with Parent Corner (1:39:35). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Cousin Sal and Matthew Belloni Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I have new rewatchables coming on Monday night. It is the last episode of Naughty November. I was supposed to be on the Prestige TV podcast tonight, breaking down White Lotus after episode four. We had a behind-the-scenes issue. That was my fault. I apologize. We are going to come back big after episode five

and do an episode four, episode five combo episodes. I got to say, episode four was the weakest one so far. It was like that transition episode that sets up everything that's going to happen in episode five, six, seven. So I think we're fine. I think we're okay. I think we're going to have an awesome next episode, me and Joanna Robinson on the Prestige TV podcast. I think we're covering that Fleischman show as well this week. Sex Lives of College Girls. We're doing that one and we have a lot more in the works. So stay tuned for that. Matt Bellany is coming on in a second. You can hear his podcast, The Town,

where we cover all the Hollywood stuff, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. I think it's the best pod of all those type of industry pods. I think he has the torch right now. And it's so good that we stole him for the top of this pod. Usually we lead with Sal on Sunday nights. I will explain why we're leading with Matt Bellany in a second. One of the biggest Hollywood stories

of the past 10 years happened tonight. So Matt's going to come on. And then after that, Guess the Lines with Sal. We'll break down week 11 and we'll do our usual thing. So there you go. That's the biggest Hollywood stories, I would say the past eight to 10 years happened tonight. Bob Iger, who retired from Disney,

triumphantly wrote a book, wrote off into the sunset, named his hand-picked successor, Bob Chapik. And a couple of years later, now all of a sudden it is announced he's returning as the CEO of Disney. Matt Bellany is here who hosts the town podcast for us. He'll be covering this more in detail tomorrow. And I hate to step on the pod, Melanie, but Jesus, this is a big story. Are you surprised? Surprised that you're not more surprised? Where do you rank? This is sort of the preview of the emergency pod.

The emergency to the emergency pod. Now, I am surprised. I'm surprised how this all went down. I'm not surprised that Disney would make a change at CEO. There was some speculation as to whether Bob Chapek would be renewed after three years. He was renewed in June, and now he's out a few months later. I am surprised that they just did it like a firing squad on a Sunday night. Just press release.

Thank you for your service. The old guy is the new guy again. Let's move forward. It was pretty stunning. But this must have been in motion for a couple of weeks, right? The easy thing to think is that, oh yeah, the earnings happen and they panic. But I just don't believe it. This had to have been in motion for the last couple of weeks and they had to know that the earnings weren't going to be that great, right? They did know that. But I do think that there's been some dissatisfaction for a long time, but it couldn't have gone on that long because they did renew him a couple of months ago. So it was a reluctant renewal because they gave him a two-year extension, not three years.

But they had an opportunity to dump the guy and they didn't. They stuck with him. And then from June until now, the situation at Disney has just become markedly worse. And this recent earnings call, I have been told, was what sort of accelerated the panic button to be hit. So one of the things that's been going on, and you wrote about this for Puck pretty recently. I think it was Thursday. It was. Yeah. There was some Bob versus Bob and the timing for your piece on Thursday was tied to this Disney earning thing. But publicly, Iger never said anything, but privately, and I had heard some of this stuff too, that people would be like, hey, what's going on with

Disney? And Iger really didn't hesitate to be critical of JPEG and what happened. But the fact that it was his hand-picked successor made it even stranger. It seemed like almost immediately he was distancing himself. I think you wrote in your piece that when he had his goodbye party, that JPEG wasn't at the table with Iger, that Iger had all these different people and some celebrities and heavy hitters. Spielberg.

Yeah. And Chapek was at a different table. So it seemed like it got off to a bad start. So why did he pick this guy in the first place? Exactly. And there's this unwritten rule in corporate America that if it's your guy that you pick, you sort of keep your mouth shut and let him play it out. Iger never adhered to that. And there's some back and forth as to why that was. Chapek supposedly was disrespectful to Iger after he took over. He started making decisions and Iger wasn't involved in the decision-making process. And he kind of questioned him within the company. And it was clear almost from the moment that Iger picked him that Iger did not endorse that decision anymore. And he was pretty open with it. I mean, I reported on... They do these investor bus tours where

investors in Disney come to LA and meet not just with Disney, but with other companies too. And Iger took that meeting last week. He was literally meeting with Disney, but with other companies too. And Iger took that meeting last week. He was literally meeting with investors, which is not something that an executive who is retired typically would do. So it's not unprecedented, but there was some churn out there which got me to write about it,

that Iger was doing things that you don't normally do if you have ridden off into the sunset. And lo and behold, four days later, he's back in the saddle. Well, and there's some Tom Brady elements to this, right? I knew you were going to bring it up. Well, he leaves his dream job, right? And he leaves it because he doesn't want to stay too long. He's very wary of anybody who loves the Disney history and has read all the books. He was the guy who

Michael Eisner just refused to turn Disney over to for years and years and undermined. And Iger was very wary about not being that guy. And he didn't want to stay too long, but he also wanted new challenges. And I think one of the things that's been interesting about him the last couple of years is we always heard his name floated around for different things. Like, would he be involved with the Rams or the Chargers? Well, that didn't happen. Would he be involved maybe with the Phoenix Suns? That seemed to be the latest thing that people were throwing his name. Oh, Iger's got a group. I know, and maybe I'm reporting this, but I know that Robert Sarver, the Suns owner, said flat out, I'm not selling the team to Iger or any group that has Iger because he blamed Iger for the ESPN story that took down Sarver and led to him having to sell the team. So I think once that was out there.

Oh, wow. That's interesting. How about that? A little nugget for you. I'm swimming in your pool. Yeah, I think Sarver genuinely blamed him for that piece and was like, I'm not selling to this guy. So I think once Iger realized that he didn't have a chance at the Suns, maybe that heated up the Disney thing. But I also think once you leave your dream job and you think you can still do it, that has to be tough for him too, right? I think very much so. I mean, Iger's a guy who loves to be in the middle of everything. He was still doing the lunches. He was doing the conference circuit. He was very much

in the mix with people around town. And it's just tough for some people. He just, he's that guy, wants to be in the middle of it. You know, 70 years old is not that old. This is the guy who had retired or at least announced his retirement three separate times at Disney and then prolonged it. He had guys that were supposed to take over for him that he had groomed. And all of a sudden, he kneecapped and said, you know what, not going to happen, and you're leaving the company. So that had really been the one issue with his leadership at Disney was the succession issue. He was unable to leave the company and give control to somebody else. And then lo and behold, here we are, you know, two years after he's out, he's back in.

Yeah. And I think, so I, I think I even said this on your pod when we were talking about Saturday Night Live and what's going to happen to that show is, you know, it evolves or in some people would say it's just getting worse. But with Lorne Michaels and David Stern, and I can't remember if the person who said this to me said it about Lorne Michael or David Stern, so maybe two different people said it to me, but they always said the reason they would never leave those jobs was because once you leave that job, once you have this amazing job where you're running SNL, you're running the NBA, you're running Disney. Everyone's returning your calls. You're the man. And then once you don't have that job, it gets a little more quiet.

People aren't jumping and, oh my God, this person, oh, Iger's on the phone. Now, he still has clout, but it's not the same as running arguably the most important content company. And the reason we're leading the podcast with this is because this is a massive story in so many different ways. This is the future of Disney. This could impact potential mergers. One of the things Chapek never did, he never, like Iger was always proactive, like with Pixar, with Marvel, with Star Wars, like he was acquiring and moving and trying to amass content. And JPEG was more, you know, like kind of trying to hold the fort. He was a manager. Yeah. So that makes me think, Iger coming back, there's got to be some big move brewing to try to change the narrative, right? Well, that's the speculation is that you don't just come back to manage the

company for two years and kind of steer the ship straight. You come back to do something. And what is Iger going to do with Disney once he's now there? Now, there's speculation they could merge, they could buy something. Netflix is out there. There's other media companies that are struggling. Maybe they merge. We're in a period of consolidation in Hollywood where a lot of these companies that have spent a lot of money to enter the streaming wars are finding out that it's super expensive. And there's not a lot of great return on that investment. So we're going to see a lot of consolidation. And I just wonder if Iger doesn't have something up his sleeve here.

It's like if Tom Brady is going to come back, is he going to come back to just tread water or is he going to try to win another Superbowl? Although that's not a great analogy because it doesn't seem to be working out that great. But I just hope that. Yeah. But Brady did win a Superbowl with the Bucks at least.

Maybe Iger's. That's true. The first time. This could be the version of that. Yeah. Yeah. True. Well,

I just hope that Iger and Willow Bay are okay, his wife, because I don't want any Giselle situations going on. I hope she's not studying Jiu-Jitsu. Our friend Jim Miller tweeted, he put a tweet out

about Netflix's stock price, which he said was like $287. Just kind of threw that out during this whole Agra thing. And that made me wonder. First of all, I always trust Jim Miller. He's like you. When he hears stuff, he knows stuff. And I always take anything from him seriously. But Disney and Netflix joining forces, that's not inconceivable, is it? No. I mean, obviously,

there would be regulatory issues and antitrust problems if the Biden administration is looking harshly at these kind of mega mergers. It would be difficult. But if you look at what Disney has, it's exactly what Netflix doesn't.

Disney has franchises. It has known IP that goes back 100 years and is beloved around the world. And if you look at Netflix, they're trying desperately to create that IP. And they're spending, spending, spending to do it. And they have hits. But in terms of lasting IP that's going to be around for generations, they haven't created that much. Certainly not on the movie side. But even in TV, you've got Stranger Things and then The Crown maybe. But that's not going to be something you're talking about in 30 years. These Disney properties are just so valuable because they can be mined and remined over and over again for generations.

I have a very naive question. If there was a Disney, Netflix, whatever, who's on the top with who in the merger? Is Disney buying Netflix or is Netflix buying Disney? I have no idea. Who has the bigger market thing? Well, right now, Netflix has a higher stock price. I mean, Disney has better financials

in the sense that it's got other businesses besides just streaming. Disney is a more fully diversified company. But that was always the problem when these stock prices were so inflated. The value of Netflix was so high that it really outstripped its fundamentals, the money it was actually bringing in. Now, Netflix operates arguably the only profitable

streaming service in all of Hollywood, but that's the only Netflix business. Disney has all of these other things that can generate money. I mean, the parks are going crazy right now with people going back after COVID. And they have these linear TV networks, which are declining, but still very profitable. And then they have this streaming investment. They lost a billion five in streaming last quarter. That's just last quarter. It's so expensive to make all these Star Wars and Marvel shows just for streaming. And at least for now, they're not getting the return on that investment because the amount of money that people pay for Disney Plus around the world is way lower than what people pay for Netflix or HBO or some of the others.

Well, it's kind of an arms race and everybody basically lost. It was so much content and so much money being spent on the content there was no way to to sustain that especially if you know we were going to have some sort of black swan event which in this case was you know the pandemic the recession or the inflation everything that's going on stock market named like seven different factors yeah they didn't guess any of that stuff was happening. So if it wasn't Netflix, I mean, there's some other stuff out there and you've talked about this on the town

over and over again. Like, we don't know what's going to happen with Peacock. We don't know. Peacock, my favorite punching bag, Peacock. Yeah. It's just not working. They have 15 million subscribers.

It's a US only service. They have 15 million subscribers. It's a US-only service. They have no real scripted hits. They have Premier League soccer, and they have some Major League Baseball, have WWE, but they don't have enough to really compete. So it's just kind of chugging along. And ultimately, that's going to be, I think, either shut down or merged with something else, whether it's the whole company buys another company, whether it's Warner Brothers Discovery or Paramount, which is the most profitable thing in the history of media because you're paying for a bunch of crap that you never watch. That's just not a thing in streaming, or at least not yet. I was at dinner with a bunch of people last night. We were talking about the streamers, a couple of connected people. And they were saying, we were kind of saying, all right, what's left in five years?

And we thought Netflix, Amazon, Disney, HBO max. And those would be the four streamers. And then we were trying to figure out what does that mean? Oh, and, and Apple. But I mean, it's a hobby.

Apple TV plus is a hobby for Tim Cook. Exactly. I couldn't have put it better myself. It's like, Oh yeah, I have this yacht that I, that every once in a while I sail it around, but I don't feel like they're in the game like these other people.

I mean, they're spending a lot of money, but it's not a real business. They're doing it because they think it's additive to their hardware business, which is an amazing business. And Tim Cook gets to tweet about Ted Lasso a couple of times a year. Yeah. So Paramount and Peacock and Hulu are the three the three and hulu as you've covered a bunch of times there's a whole power dynamic with that whole thing with the you know the shares and how that's going to play out and that'll take like two years but other than i don't know what his next move is i think what's so fascinating to me about this is in a weird way it's a failure to come back, but it also feels triumphant, right? Because even in his press statement,

Iger's like, you know, just over the moon. Oh my God, the chance to come back to Disney. It's like, you fucking had the shop already. But what are you celebrating? It's a huge personal risk for Iger. And here's why. This guy had one of the greatest runs in corporate America history. He comes into Disney.

He completely transforms his company, completely transforms the industry. And if you think about how Marvel and what it's done to the theatrical film business, where literally every other movie is a superhero movie now. And every other movie is a $200 million movie and everything else goes to streaming. Disney did that. And it totally changed the movie business. Iger leaves the company as this conquering hero. He has a full-on year to celebrate his exit. He literally went on local TV in LA and was the weatherman just to celebrate his roots as a weatherman. It was like a party for him leaving. And he goes away. And now he's going to come back into a

completely different company. The fundamentals of Disney are good, but it is challenged right now. The stock is in the toilet. They have real problems in their spending and the streaming services and how they're going to compete. And it's a real challenge. His legacy is literally on the line here. If he comes back, I mean, this could be a Tom Brady 2022, 2023 season for him, where it's just not working out. And then what? Then what with his legacy? Did he ruin it? Did he come back too soon? I mean, there's a million sports analogies of guys who stayed on too long or came back or whatever. But it's a real problem for him if this doesn't work. So I do think it's a personal risk. And frankly, there's a lot of CEOs who would have just said, no, thanks. I did my duty. I'm happy where I am. Iger is not that guy. He, like we said,

wants to be in the mix. He's happy to go back. And I think he thrives on it. Yeah, I wonder, like, he probably kicked the tires thinking about the presidency, decided against that. Oh, he did. He definitely wanted the possibility of an NBA team. Maybe couldn't find the right one. You know, Suns, no. Lakers, the Guggenheim guys already own 25% or 27%. So if the buses ever sell,

it's probably going to be to them. And you just go around, it's like Dolan's never selling the Knicks. So maybe the Knicks thing never happens. Adam Silver's not going anywhere. So NBA commissioner is not happening. And I think you're right. I think he wants to be in the action. Some people are just, you know, they're wired on it. It's almost like an athlete analogy doesn't work here. It would be, you know, cause I was thinking like, is this like Jordan wizards? But you can't even say that because he's coming back to the exact same situation, which is now way worse than it was before the pandemic. Right.

It's got all the stuff he has to fix. It's more like a, like an executive or a coach, right? It would be like Belichick leaving the Patriots and then just coming back two years later. But if the Patriots were better than they are now, my point is there is no parallel. I don't think this has ever happened before in anything. Didn't Pat Riley do a return stint to the Lakers? Or Phil Jackson did a return after leaving, although that was largely the same four, right? Yeah, he did.

I just think Iger was, as Phil Jackson's one of the four greatest coaches ever, but Iger was in the running for greatest media executive we've ever had, right? I don't know if he's number one, but if we're having the conversation, he's got to be one of the first three people you mentioned. If we have that conversation in two years, is he there? That's the real question here. Has he put

his legacy at risk or does he have the opportunity now to fix the one blemish on his resume, which is that he picked a shitty successor? Now, I mean, it was very clear in the press release tonight that they said to him his goal is to steer the ship and also to find and groom a successor. That was in the press release. So they are making it very clear this is a two-year stint that they want. Now, who knows if he'll extend as he did many times before. But they specifically said find someone to take over this company on a more permanent basis. That is his job. Well, he's an incredible CEO. And it felt like

when he turned things over to Chapek, he basically turned it over at the worst possible time, right? Right as the pandemic's about to start, which they probably didn't tell that the pandemic was coming in some form, right? They have business in China. Iger stepped down on February 25th, 2020.

At that point, the pandemic was the pandemic in China. They were doing shutdown. Disney has extensive business there. They knew exactly what was coming. Yeah, so he comes back. It reminds me of I remember Affleck when he did the Batman movie in 2014 after Gone Girl when he was red hot.

And I did a mailbag answer where somebody was about why Affleck wanted to do Batman. Remember he had that incredible comeback run in Argo and he was just hot again. And then it felt like the swing for the fences with Batman. And I wrote this whole thing about, you know, he had hit rock bottom and then he had this unbelievable comeback.

And now this was like the fuck you. Like when the Pats were trying to go 19 to know, it was like one of those moments, like, you know what? Fuck it. I'm going, now I'm going for 19-0.

And I wrote it all out. And then I remember talking to him after, and he was like, yeah, that's basically what it was. I was on a heater, and why not? You know, you hit this point, why not? And I wonder with Iger, he must have hit the why not point with this. Like, why not?

If I pull this off, I come back, I ride back in on my white horse, and I save Disney, and I put the pieces together for this unbelievable run. I save the stock. I make us the dominant streamer. Now there's no doubt I'm the greatest media executive of all time, right? Yeah, but that's the risk. It's huge risk by the way damon and affleck today they announced this new thing that i saw that kept on by the eiger news no one's talking about they announced this new directors collective they're doing where they're gonna affleck's gonna only direct for this company that's gonna like be better for directors and i felt bad for them because literally no one is talking about it because of the Eiger news. And it's the same thing. This is going to dominate the Hollywood conversation for at least the next few months. And it's going to

be a soap opera. It's like the NBA. It's like every day there's something new. I was thinking about how the NBA stars bouncing around is a lot like these executives. There was a great article in the New York Times by James Stewart about wondering whether the AT&T-Time Warner merger was the worst merger of all time. It starts out with this anecdote of John Stanky bringing in the three people who were basically running Time Warner at the time. And all three people are gone. The pleb was gone.

The guy who got bounced, the movie guy, he's gone. The pleb was gone. The guy who got bounced, the movie guy, he's gone. Yeah, and who was the third guy? All three of them are gone. Oh, Zucker. Jeff Zucker and CNN, yeah. It was definitely Larry's anecdote. He gave them a sheet of paper

that told them how to comport themselves in front of him as if he couldn't just say that to them. They needed a structure of, you will address me as John. I like to hang out with my wife on Saturday, so please no calls on Saturday. Amazing stuff.

It was single space, two pages was my favorite part. But all those guys are gone. Iger handed it off to Chapek, who's now gone. It's just, I think the musical chairs is a lot like these NBA superstars where it's like, oh, now this guy's on this team.

And oh, Durant's on Brooklyn now. Nope, we're going hard and he's on Brooklyn. No, he's actually on Philly now. Maybe that's what media executives are like NBA superstars. It is a little bit, although the NBA guys

are usually the young up-and-comers who are disrupting everything. In media, it tends to be these old guys who just bounce around. Not a lot of young talent coming up or at least being given the opportunity to do this. All these guys are in their 50s, 60s, 70s now. And yeah,

it feels a little bit like a Fall of Rome type situation where everyone's scrambling for their lifeboat and everything's burning around them because literally no one knows what's going to happen in the entertainment business in the next 10 years. People are just grasping at straws. So every little development is like an oh shit moment.

Tonight, when that press release hit, my phone was just blowing up. They're like, oh my god, I can't believe they just did this. They just fired the CEO of Disney just like on a Sunday night, just like sent the press release. And weirdly, it was predictable because the earnings were so bad. All right, before you go, you're going to cover this all week on the town

or at least part of the week because we have Thanksgiving coming up. But give me one off the top of your head prediction for the next two years with this Agra Disney thing. You don't have to be tied to it, but just a fun prediction. I'll give you one. I mean, this is a little inside baseball, but a lot of people are

getting fired. A lot of the people that JPEG brought in, he did this big reorganization where he put one of his deputies in charge of all of the media businesses, this guy, Kareem Daniel. I think all of that will be gone. I think that Iger will actually start to walk back

some of the price changes and the price gouging that they've been doing at the parks where you go to Disneyland and you pay like 200 bucks to get in and then you have to pay 20 bucks extra to go on the rides you actually want to go on. I think Tiger will probably walk some of that stuff back and try to not get as much criticism from the parks fans that he's been getting.

The real question is ESPN. What are they going to do with ESPN? The rights fees are so expensive. The linear numbers are going down, down, down. They don't know what ESPN Plus is going to be. I mean, there was a big investor, Dan Loeb, this summer who said, you guys need to sell ESPN, which would have been unthinkable even five, seven years ago at Disney. It was powering their earnings. But now there's going to be a point where the cable subscribers decline enough where ESPN is not a profitable venture?

And then what? I would sell ESPN and put the money toward Netflix. Sell ESPN and buy Netflix? Yeah, if it was my fantasy team, that's what I'd do. Easy. No brainer. Well, Netflix is going to get into sports at some point. I mean, they went after tennis rights.

They went after a surfing league. Netflix is going to get into sports at some point. I mean, they went after tennis rights. They went after a surfing league. Netflix is going to get into sports too. So maybe sell ESPN, buy Netflix, and then have Netflix start to get sports rights. Well, that's the one thing coming out of this because the NBA rights are coming up. I thought ESPN was getting at least a huge chunk of the NBA anyway, but now it's a lock because Iger and Silver,

you can lock that one down. All right. Matt Bellany, I know you're going to cover this on The Town. You just put a new newsletter up on Puck, which everybody should get if they love this stuff. This was great. Thanks for hopping on on short notice. I appreciate it. No problem. Thanks.

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an unsurprising yet completely surprising comeback how this is the first time in his career he is indisputably, unquestionably, the best quarterback in the world. He's always been in the running. I think the smart fans felt like he was the most talented, whatever. Brady was in there for a couple years. Rodgers won two MVPs.

This year, it felt like it was him and Josh Allen, and they were kind of like the Ali Frazier thing going a little bit. But now it's Mahomes, and he's by himself, And it's like Hulk Hogan in the mid eighties, 1985 Hogan, just running through cities, pinning people left and right, whatever feud he's in, he's going to win. He's the guy. I think it's official tonight. He is the guy. He is. And until he like Hogan takes a stand and admits that he's doing anabolic steroids uh I think he isn't no honestly you're right and you're right no matter how you want to break it

down he's the guy if you need one drive in the fourth quarter if you need one play from the three if you need a division win if you need a road win as we saw he hadn't lost in October November the last 15 games or something that hasn't lost in the AFC West ever on the road. Was that right? Like, I can't even believe some of these stats. He could draw a pass interference call if you need it. What do you need out of Mahomes? You're going to get it. And I don't know why we're kidding ourselves thinking it's anyone else. Yeah. He certainly has the mantle now of the, I can't believe I bet against this guy mantle, which has a long story in history, right? There was years of Manning and Brady kind of both had it for a while.

Rodgers had it for a little while. But now it's like, if you had the Chargers money line, you're probably celebrating. What were the Chiefs heading into that last drive down four with like two minutes left? What was the line? Plus 172. It was me and you and Hench and House.

And we're like, we always debate. And you should just bet it every time. And you're going to come out plus. Yeah, I think we've said before, we always felt like he was the most talented quarterback that we've seen. Like just he brought the most tools and tricks to the table of anybody.

But I think what really needs to happen to be truly great, he's got that Super Bowl already, but it's the week-to-week stuff. It's nights like tonight where you start stockpiling those and you have five of those, then you have 10, and then that's been going on for a half decade. And now it's eight years, now it's nine years. And that's what's going to happen. And he also has, he was able to keep this going. He loses Tyreek Hill, who is the best receiver in the league. He still has the magic with Kelsey. And it's one of those things where they were just kind of keeping their fingers crossed,

hoping that because they had Mahomes, that he would be the Steph Curry, what we talked about in Over Under's pod before the year. Let's just put the pieces around him. Well, they're 8-2. They have the best record in the AFC. They have the second best record in the league. And they have the inside record in the AFC. They have the second best record in the league. And they have the inside track in the one seed. And you

could say the strategy, the gamble worked, right? Even though Tyreek is crushing it on Miami, it still kind of worked. It definitely worked, but I think, and you mentioned Kelsey, but we should give him a little more credit than just a mention, right? He just abused an all-pro for almost four

hours tonight. He went nuts. And if you don't have that guy, maybe it's a little different. If you don't have Hill and Kelsey, maybe we're not singing songs for Patrick Mahomes. But it does work. It all works. And he's going to make this Darius Toney a star and whoever. Who already got hurt.

Yeah, right. He's already hurt. Toney lasted a game and a half. Yeah that was it but I bet he doesn't freak out about that stuff right? No. It doesn't really matter to him and Pacheco is running the ball like it doesn't really even matter what you put in there unless it's Kelsey is out of there and

Mahomes. Yeah he needs the one guy like Brady always had Gronk and I was thinking like you know Brady and Gronk Mahomes Kelsey, and I think Elway and Shannon Sharp are probably the QB tight end. It's probably that order, one, two, three. Rivers and Gates is in there. I think Breeze and Jimmy Graham have a surprising amount of TDs. I think they're the third most QB tight end things ever.

And then your guy Witten with Romo, I think is up there. There's been some combos, but I think those three levitate above everybody else. And especially Brady Gronk and Mahomes Kelsey. Yeah. I mean, if you want to go way back, Fouts and Winslow, right? That was a little shorter than I think people, you know, when a tight end was good in the old days, it lasted like three years. Like Ben Coates was incredible for the Pats. And you go back and look at his stats, and it was really like four years

because those guys were just getting annihilated. Yeah. I mean, it was like they would have, what, one 16-game season was like three seasons with tight ends. They were getting crushed over the middle. Everyone was teeing off on them. And it went down fast. Now there's better rules in place.

But yeah, so KC, they do a couple things tonight. First of all, they hold the one win over four teams. Miami 7-3, South Tennessee, Baltimore, Buffalo. So they stay a game ahead of all those people. They also knock out the Char game ahead of all those people. They also knock out the Chargers out of the top seven. And now the Chargers are looking up at the Pats six and four,

Bengals six and four, and Jets six and four. And I think the Bengals are the one that I think out of those three is the real playoff team. Pats, Jets, we'll talk about later. Chargers now five and five, classic Chargers season.

They could easily be like 8-2, right? And it's just like this is who they are and this is what they do. Yeah, whether it's a field goal kicker who doesn't show up or injured players or doctors performing weird surgery on the side. Yeah, exactly. It's like, unfortunately, Herbert's great and he's going to bear the brunt of a lot of that and he can't come up a winner in this specific game against the Chiefs,

in which, again, everyone's rooting against him in LA. It was good to see a game where there's points scored. I appreciate a 17-14 game, too, but no, and we'll talk about your quarterback and the Jets, and it didn't seem like any of the quarterbacks were able to put anything together in the cold weather today. didn't seem like any of the quarterbacks were able to put anything together in the cold weather today. So this was a breath of fresh air. Our friend Dave Chang was at the game today

and he said there's a smattering of Chargers fans. Wow. And it was just overpowering Chiefs Nation. Pretty rough. I also think that shot of Herbert kind of just staring onto the field like Dr. Loomis at the end of Halloween, not knowing where Michael Myers went,

just kind of sadly, but kind of there's a look in his eye. I've been here before. I can't believe this is happening again. This seems to be a Herbert staple. Now he does whatever he can do. He had that unbelievable throw to Alan. What was that?

Like third and 18 at third 18, by the way, seems to be the lucky number. It seems like a lot of conversions are done on third or fourth and 18. If you're 17 or 19, you're not going to get it. No way. But 18 could be. But yeah, I'm trying to think of what I would liken it to because there's always that what

seems to be a knockout blow on third and 18 or fourth and 18. And they just can't put it together at the end. We all knew the Chiefs were the winning bet, plus 172 in the last drive. So, do you think the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC unequivocally? Or would you say they're the team you feel the best about, but you still feel like it's

wide open? Well, let me ask you this question. Since it matters more to you, and you have more of a chance of grabbing the seventh seed. Are they the team you want to least? Well, right? I mean, that's where you would be, right?

And you would play the two. Who are you hoping gets the two last? Is it the Chiefs? Is it the Ravens? Or is it the Bills or Dolphins? No, the team we would have, I'm not even really ready to talk about the Patriots playoff folks yet, but the team we would have the best chance against is Tennessee. Like one of those 10, seven,

16, 13, like just like a defensive battle. Our defense is really good. Like at some point, you know, you could say like, Oh,

it was Zach Wilson again, whatever, but our defense is good. It's just the rest of the team is such garbage. Um, like that, like, but do we talk about this now? My dad and I were

Yeah, let's talk about it. Yeah. My dad came to town. He turned 75 next week, so flew him out. All excited for Pat's Jets. And it just got dark during the game. Like, we're having combos like, who would you least rather have as your QB? Zach

Wilson or Mac Jones? And we're like, probably, probably would rather have Mac, but not even sure. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson, like can't do anything at all, but we're like, at least Zach Wilson can run a little. Mac's numbers were decent, but if you watch the game, he was bad. Like he just took over and over again, sacks at the worst time. There was some run after the catch stuff with him that made his stats look better than they were, but he can't move around. He just seems to have lost his poise. So we're watching that. Then we're thinking like, do we have a better chance of scoring when Zach Wilson has the ball or when Mac Jones has the ball? And we were honest, like we probably,

there was one point where it's like, we should punt, try to lock them inside the 10 and Zach Wilson, maybe he'll get us one. And then we're thinking like, we might have a better chance with our special teams than Mac Jones. And then what happens? You're right. The most improbable win in recent Patriots history. You are so spoiled though.

You are. I know you said the numbers don't matter, but when you tweeted, I looked at it. I looked at them like, wow, because I wasn't following. First of all, I was in a bar in Oregon. There's nothing more, but like put a pin in a balloon when you're at a bar and you're like, oh, there's seven screens. They're like, oh, they get one game. It's a Bill's bar. I really felt like I was in college again. It was a Bill's bar and they somehow got the red zone in the middle, which and every TV is married to the other. And so they can only show two games on 11 screens.

But anyway, so anyway, I was looking at your thing. I was like, what's going on? Why? Could it be that? He was 19 for 22, Mac Jones, when you started crying on Twitter about it, for 207 yards. Do you trust?

That's the 22 quarterback. That's it. Marcus Mariota won with way worse stats than that. Sal. You're not going to get Mahomes. I'm sorry. You can't have Mahomes Right away After Tom Brady It's going to be a few years

Before you have to figure it out Are you really going to throw Like completion percentage at me? You have to trust my football Opinion a little bit At this point Listen He's just done

He's checking down Every time We were inside The 35 yard line Like five times He's Every time There was a bad sack to take, he took it.

He couldn't move around, couldn't do anything. We had three points. We had three points in the entire game at home. That's on him. It was cheap stats, I'm telling you. The Jets, all they were doing was just giving us the ball back after three downs. They had 103 yards total. But he manages the game.

That's what's fine. What was he managing? He had three points. He's 103 yards total. But he manages the game. That's what's fine. What was he managing? He had three points. He's not getting, he's not turning the ball over. I mean, talk to a Jets fan right now about what the future is going to be like.

So you're still a playoff team. You're going to be just fine with Mack Jones. This team is not fine. This team offensively is impotent and they can't really block. And part of that, like if you're going to make a defensive back,

it's like, well, the blocking's not great. Andrews, the center, got hurt again today. Well, the blocking was great on the Marcus Jones return. It was really great. There was one right in the back that the referee missed. Blocking the back.

It wouldn't have covered otherwise. The problem you saw today with Cousins in Minnesota, if you have these quarterbacks that can't move around, you can't block for them, they can't really do anything like the dallas was rushing four guys that whole game it wasn't like they were sending these exotic blitzes at cousins from blindsides it was like here are four guys you can't block them and over and over again they're

in his face he couldn't move around i think with the with the pats jets game i'm telling you the pats like my dad and i were like he's like we got to refer against the chargers tonight i'm like why He couldn't move around. I think with the Pats-Jets game, I'm telling you, the Pats... My dad and I were like... He's like, we got to root against the Chargers tonight. I'm like, why? So we can get crushed as the seventh seed? He's like, you're right, you're right.

We want to make the playoffs, but whatever. If you're a Jets fan, that's the end with Zach Wilson. Every Jets fan I know is like, we're all out. We've all made a decision. We're out on this guy. He does that press conference after.

And he says, they were, they ask him, what was the question? Do you feel like you let the defense down? He said, no, no, I don't. He's got multiple wide receivers, a lot of grenades, a lot of these, uh, underhanded grenades at him. He's so bad. We were like, we were laughing every time we went back to pass, right? Throw it to Zach.

He tried twice. McCourty dropped one. I can't remember who the other one. We dropped two. One of which, oh, Jones dropped one. One of which I think would have been a pick six. But he just, and then on that third and one, there's this great clip of the guy just running over the middle wide open

right before the punt. And Wilson just panics and throws like an outpass for minus three. He is the worst quarterback we've played in a couple of years. He really is. I agree. I saw all the highlights. I saw all the low lights. And I think at this point he couldn't even get his mother's friend's mother to sleep with him. I mean, I think it's getting, it's getting that. I mean, to say that he didn't let down the defense, like, what does that say? Like, Oh, you've, you haven't seen anything yet. Wait till you see what I have in store for the next seven games.

We won't see him again. They have to bench him. I was looking at more punts than completed passes. That's a ridiculous stat. You should have to sit after that. The team has no confidence in him. You can read it with the guy's faces. Just since

2017, top 15 quarterbacks. Wilson was second. Trey Lance was third. We have no idea what's going to happen with him. Daniel Jones, sixth. Haskins,

15. Mayfield, one. Darnold, three. Josh Rosen, 10. Trubisky,

two. And Wentz, two. So in the last five years, and a lot of those were top five picks and they're either out of the league or they're headed out of the league. And then you go on the other side, that guys who made it Lawrence fields,

burrow to a Herbert, Kyler, Alan, Mahomes, Watson and Goff. And I threw in Kyler and Goff, even though I'm not even sure they made it. I mean,

they both got paid, but. And fields is just, fields is just like in the last four weeks. We wouldn't have even had his name in there, right? Yeah, and I'm still not sure what he is. Is he a running back? What is he?

He doesn't have any game where he completes more than 12 passes. Yeah, his accuracy has to get a lot better. I bring this up because we used to say it was 50-50 for QBs. Like if you're drafting a top 15. Now it's like 40-60. You have a 60% chance the guy's just going to absolutely suck. Zach Wilson, this is a wrap. I don't think he's ever going to be a quarterback.

Second pick in the draft 18 months ago. And they knew he was second, right? Remember a couple months leading up to it? It's like, oh, what if they went Lance or Fields before Zach? Well, it's like, no, no, no. That's crazy talk. Nope. Jets love him, and they love him where they love him,

and he's not going to move. Everyone's so sure. Malik Willis was definitely the best, right? Does anyone know what they're talking about, including us? I don't think so. Tell you this. I think the Jets are pretty good. Like Like my dad and I, we were watching it. We were like, their front four is unbelievable. They were absolutely demolishing us. They have skill position guys. I think Garrett

Wilson's good. They have good cornerbacks. You know, they were all over the place. They made one mistake on a punt return with eight seconds left. They lose the game. That game goes to overtime. It just would have come down to who made the defensive or special teams fuck up, I think. And it turned out the Jets did it right for regulation. But the reason I mention this, on FanDuel right now, the Jets are 55-1 to win the AFC title. And I'm not saying they will. Good. I'm glad you're not saying that.

Well, if Mike White goes in, we've seen Mike White have like decent games, right? If they just, I just want to see what they look like for three weeks with a decent quarterback. I'm not even saying good. You don't even, just give me like what Kenny Pickett did today in the Steelers

Bengals game. Like, just give me like a C. What do they look like with a C? They have so many talented guys. I'd be going, if the Jets were my team, I would be fucking out of my mind today. This is it. This is the number two pick. We tanked a whole season for

this guy, and we've already lost this? Well, and what's worse is they're going to win eight, nine, ten games, right? Somewhere in there, so they're not going to get a crack at some of the better-quoted top three, I don't think. There's talk how they're going to win eight, nine, 10 games, right? Somewhere in there. So they're not going to get a crack at some of the better quoted top three. I don't think there's talk how they're going to make Jimmy G the highest paid quarterback in the league next year. The Jets are?

Yeah. Well, they won't have a shot at like Stroud or, you know, some of these other guys coming out of college. I don't think. Kyle, turn the TikTok camera on. Uh-oh. 845 Sunday night. Quarterback of the 2023 New York Jets will be?

I like my Jimmy G theory. I'm going to go with it. Why not? Derek Carr. Oh, you're Carr, huh? Wow. Yeah. Jetsiest quarterback out there.

Just good enough to give you hope. Just kind of shaky enough to rip your heart out at the worst possible time. I could see him in the uniform. It'll be like, oh my God, we got Derek Carr. We finally got a quarterback. He's won some games. And then it's like, well, look,

don't look at his win-loss record for his career because it's like 15 games under. I like Carr more than most people. I just don't see him in the cold weather. I don't know if that's a good transition. You can't quit Carr. He's not bad. Look at some of the cold weather. You love Carr. I don't know if that's a good transition. You can't quit Carr. He's not bad. Look at some of the stats on some of these guys.

I know I'm hung up on stats, which is what people use to determine all pros and Hall of Famers and stuff. I know you hate that stuff, but he's not that bad. Yeah, I know those stupid stats. Before this season, I wrote down tiers of quarterbacks, and I had Mahomes and Rodgers in the top tier. Did you write about your tiers concerning your quarterback?

The tiers you and your dad shed every Sunday? That's a separate column. It's my actual tiers as I watched Mac Jones roll out into another sack yet again on third down. The next tier I had was Brady, Allen, Herbert, Burrow. That still feels pretty solid. Brady might be down a level. Then the next here, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, who's basically broken. Like this is it now.

You're calling Amazon and asking like, hey man, can I return Matthew Stafford? No, it's been more than a year. Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson. I had in the next tier. I mean, I don't know what to do with Watson, but you would definitely move Wilson, Stafford, and Carr out of there. Lamar stays. The tier after that, this is what I did before the season.

Prescott, Murray, Mack, Tannehill, Cousins. Mack free falls out of there. I think Murray's out of there too. And then I had Matt, Ryan, Jimmy G. That's a funny tier. They had their own tier? Those two? Yeah.

Then I had Lawrence, Goff, Tua, Hertz. And Tua and Hertz like vault up, right? Oh, yeah. They go up three, I think. Tua, three. Yeah. I redid it. I had Mahomes, own tier. Allen, Herbert, Burrow Oh, yeah. They go up three, I think. Two or three. Yeah. I redid it. I had Mahomes, own tier,

Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Lamar, and then Brady, Hertz, Tua, Watson, in some order. And then your guys probably right there with Gino and Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. Can you imagine that? But the biggest free fall of all

of them is Aaron Rodgers. I mean, that Thursday night game was alarming. Really, that was like, whoa. I think this is like 2010 Brett Favre territory we're moving into. But my point is there's been a lot of quarterback upheaval. But the one thing that has not changed was I had Zach Wilson as second to last. And right now I still have him second to last. I think we have to rank the Wilsons.

I think every week it flip-flops between Russ and Zach. I mean, this is the most outstanding. I know we have other more important games to talk about, but Denver, if they had scored 18 points, just 18 points by the end of regulation, they would be 9-1 now. That's crazy. 18 points, and they hired the offensive savant, allegedly. Yeah.

Hackett. McDaniels is better than Nathaniel. Yeah. Battle of the annuals. Yeah, that's amazing to me. Let's take a break and some other storylines and then we'll hit the lines. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer.

Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Superbowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. Okay. Your team. Yeah. Your fucking team.

Two weeks in a row. Jamming it right in my butt cheeks. They were right to make them favored. They were right to make them favored after all. A week ago, we were like, oh, that's ridiculous. I thought it was more ridiculous even than you that they were favored.

My God. they kicked it. CBS left the game with five and a half minutes left in the third quarter. They left them. They went to the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game. No one does... The Vikings shouldn't have a home playoff game. That should be one of the things that determines

like, okay, you have this body of work. You have all these wins. Did the network have to leave your game because you were losing by 35, 37 points? With 39 minutes left in the game? Yeah, it's like, yeah, I'm sorry. I was like, okay, sorry. We have to automatically eliminate you. You're going to have to go on the road in the playoffs.

That is a soundbite. Minnesota is like, hey, man, we're 8-2. Every once in a while, you have a bad run. Move on. Move it on to next week. Negative point differential after being 8-2. It never happened before. Is that true?

Yep. Yeah. Well, I had them in a two. It never happened before. Is that true? Yep. Yeah. Well, I had them in a tease. They're frauds. The Giants are frauds. I wish we're going to knock all of them out. The Cowboys are.

I wish we could play Seattle. Another fraudulent NFC squad. Let's take them all. I split on my two big million dollar picks this week, but I, I've officially decided I'm not doing picks on Thursdays anymore. I'll set the tone. I'm going to do the picks on Sunday mornings. I'll tweet

the final picks. The Minnesota game. Isn't there like a big sponsor attached to the million dollar picks? Well, we're going to have it. We'll lay out all the picks and I'll do one and then I'll be like, I'm going to reveal the other two on Sunday. Every sharp love Dallas.

When we had the left tackle who Darasov every sharp love Dallas. Yeah. When we had the, the, the Darishow, the left tackle who Darishow, Darishow, Darishow. That's all right. He's like,

he might play, he might not. And everybody's like, if this guy doesn't play, the Vikings are absolutely fucked. He gets concussion the first quarter. They're down 13 to three. It feels like a hundred to three.

And the strip sack on cousins, you just knew it, right? Yeah. It feels like 100-3. No strip sack on Cousins. You just knew it, right? Yeah. It was done immediately. The one to tease, which we didn't realize when we did Million Dollar Picks, they moved that game to Detroit,

the Bills-Browns game. Yeah. You're basically putting the Bills indoors. They have one of the best indoors teams. All you have to do is tease them down to one and a half. So that sucked. That was smart. I don't know how you were,

but I was annoyed. You see that it's going to be between three and six feet of snow. Let's go. These are one of the games we want to watch. Then it's like, oh, screw you, Goodell. How dare you move this? Then you see it like, oh boy, no one would have been able to go to this game.

It would have been 12 total yards of offense. And it would have been like gladiators. Maybe someone might've died. All right. Yeah. Move it back to Detroit. That's fine. Yeah.

I was with you and then you hear, and I know we're like smarter and savvier in 2022, right? We know how to avoid some things. And the case is like, hey man, nobody would be able to get to the game. People might get into accidents trying to get to the game people might get into accidents trying to get to the game they're like ah yeah i guess so with that said 40 years ago this would have been the game of the year like 1982 yeah oh they're playing in five feet of snow oh my god job job against singletary let's see last man standing which which fat linemen are going to slip more that would have been the whole game.

The odds makers didn't change it. It was like eight and then it stayed at eight. It was the same kind of thing. Fallon hasn't been accurate in the last few weeks. Of course you want him in good weather. I only did two bets in real life this week. I did Philly, Minnesota midweek, which was a mistake as a tease week. I did Philly, Minnesota midweek, which was a mistake as a tease. Then I did Philly with the Chargers and the

Bills. Chargers 2 plus 11.5. Philly was a freaking heart attack. Oh my god. And yet again, I'm like... You're a lucky son of a bitch there. Yeah. Yet again, I'm going against zombie Matt Ryan in Indianapolis. And I'm like, it's not like somebody's putting a gun to my head and forcing me to bet against Indianapolis.

Week after week, I'm in this position of, oh my God, how am I here again? And even like the Eagles finally score, they go up by a point. And zombie Matt Ryan has 90 seconds left. I'm like, he's going to fucking get this. First play, it's like 20 yards. And then they finally sack him, but God. Has there ever been a worse team who's scarier? You're looking at your tiers like,

where am I putting? Second tier or 14th tier? I have Matt Ryan near last, but I have zombie Matt Ryan. They're different people. Zombie Matt, I don't know how he does it. He can't move. He's getting hit. He's getting crushed. They could different people. Yeah. Zombie Matt just, just, just, I don't know how he does it. He can't move.

He's getting hit. He's getting crushed. They could barely block and they hung around and almost won. I know zombie Colts defense at the end there. Isn't that Jalen Hurts

scramble up the middle like the one play that they need to defend there? I know. I was sitting there watching. Well, that whole drive. It's interesting. Ben Solak tweeted this and I, and I agree because I saw it in the moment. I was sitting there watching. Well, that whole drive. It's interesting.

Ben Solak tweeted this, and I agree because I saw it in the moment I was thinking it. They were very careful with Hurts because that last drive was one of those moments where you're going, all right, let's see it, Jalen Hurts. What do you got? Right? You got to come from behind. You need to get a touchdown. You need to put together a real drive.

This Colts defense is pretty good. There's some crowd noise. You don't have Dallas Goddard. What do you got? Let's see it. It was mostly his legs. He wasn't in the pocket. And the Colts were doing this funky defense with him where it was like they weren't totally rushing him. And they were kind of just in front of him and making him wait and get frustrated. And, you know, and it worked. So I don't know if, like when your team, if you play them in the playoffs or whenever,

I don't know if that'll be the new blueprint or maybe this game was just a fluke. Yeah. Well, he had 84 yards rushing, he ended up, but I don't even know if you know this, the Colts current head coach was like on television three weeks ago. I know.

I had that written down. I'm convinced the head coach position is now ceremonial. All right. Yeah. I think we all said this. You just got to give some speeches, and it's all about the coordinators and whether the players like you or not. And he said that, too.

He's like, I got great people around me. I'm good. I'm having fun. But, yeah, every night, every Sunday night, like you or not. And he said that too. He's like, I got great people around me. I'm good. I'm having fun. But yeah, every night, every Sunday night, I have written down like 15 bad coaching decisions.

And so, we don't get to a lot of them. But yeah, why should Jeff Saturday be worse than anybody? I remember when I was a kid, the Patriots had this guy in the mid 80s.

They had this guy, Ron Meyer, this college coach. And they were kind of like, they were lingering. They, you know, they would be around 500,

but they never kind of got over the hump and the players didn't like them. So they fired him. They brought in Raymond Berry, who is kind of like, almost like a caretaker and, you know, respected hall of famer had a presence to him,

but they made a point. Like he's a delegator, you know, he's just like, she's kind of there, but they made a point like he's a delegator. He's just kind of there, but the players respect him. He's like, all right, let's try this. Then they went on that run. They had the run in 85. They won in Miami. They won in Oakland. I was like, wow, Raymond Berry. Then two years later, caretaker Raymond Berry. All of a sudden, the team was an

abomination. But it does, I did watch it work for like a year and a half where it's like, this guy's, he's not really an offensive specialist. He's not a defensive specialist,

but he seems like a good guy. And maybe he gives some good speeches. And maybe that's all we need. Maybe Jeff Saturday is going to be like the seventh best coach in the league.

Yeah, and think about how many teams have quarterbacks that are just, you laughed at it, but are just decent game managers, the Marcus Mariota, you know,

like, and okay. So the equivalent of that on the coaching levels, the guy just kind of gets, gets it done in the, in the clubhouse and people like them. And he's not, you know,

he's, uh, yeah, not getting drunk, pulled over on the way home. Like, I just, I don't know.

It's a lot to be said about something like that. Yeah. Just steer the car. Well, your team, you lose to Green Bay last week. Yeah. And I was convinced you weren't very good.

I don't know what happened there. I don't know what to think. I'm still bummed about that. That angers me even more. It's got to anger the Bills too. Up 27-10 against this Vikings team. Ang angers me even more. It's got to anger the bills too. Up 27, 10 against his Vikings team. It was my wallet.

Yeah, it was terrible. Well, I could have told you, why don't you just stay away from that? I mean, it's obviously a, a fixed line.

It's one and a half in favor of the Cowboys. Yeah. Well, by Sunday, I made that decision. A couple other storylines. Quick. Washington.

Yeah. House is loving it. Loving it. They're 6-5? Mm-hmm. They haven't had a bye week yet. The NFC right now goes Philly 9-1, Minnesota 8-2, Seattle

6-4, and Tampa 5-5 are our four division leaders right now. Your team and the Giants both 7-3. And then San Francisco 5-4 play Mondayants, both 7-3. And then San Fran's 5-4 play Monday night. Washington's 6-5. And then Atlanta and New Orleans are lingering in case anything weird happens with Tampa. But yeah, Washington is

officially in the mix. You loved them last week. That was one of your upset picks of the year. I loved it. I said, not so fast on that Monday night game. They got a bunch of calls, but it worked out. And then they beat up a bad team today. But that's what you want, right?

Coming off an emotional Monday night win on the road against a team that's better than you on paper. You want a cupcake like the Texans who have now really far and away. Oh, they've cemented it. That's it. They're it. They're the worst. Rams are second, though. Rams are second worst? Yeah. They're awful. They're the worst. Rams are second, though. Rams are second worst?

Yeah. They're awful. I don't know. They're really bad. I was thinking, is the Rams title defense the worst we've ever seen? No, we've had bad ones. Buster Douglas, Holyfield? No, the 99 balls is the standard.

Oh. Remember that? Yeah. And just makes a shot the next year. They were like 15. Oh, no. Theres is the standard. Oh. Remember that? Yeah. And just makes a shot. The next year, they were like 15. Oh, no, there was a strike season. They were like 12 and 38 or something. Right. I guess that's it. All right.

All right. Bulls, Buster Douglas, Rams. That's fine. The Washington thing's fun, though. Atlanta's lingering. They had a nice little win slash push against the Bears. And then what else did I write down? Oh, we haven't really talked about this.

You actually have like a legitimately good field goal kicker. I know. What's that like? It's like 460 plus yards. And he was erratic a few years ago. He wasn't the best. But yeah, I mean, if you want 29 fantasy points, Mahara's your guy. There's a lot years ago. He wasn't the best. But yeah, I mean, if you want 29 fantasy points, Mahara's your guy.

He makes a 60-yarder and they're like, hold on, we're still reviewing the last play. Yeah, that shouldn't be allowed. Yeah, and he makes it again. What are, just out of curiosity, the three best Dallas kickers of your lifetime? I loved Rafael Septien

in the late 70s. Whoever I give you is not going to have the best stats. Well, I like that about him. Did he ever have a legitimately reliable Cowboys kicker who just lights out? Not too many great ones. Maybe for one or two years and then that's it. Yeah. That's good.

I had that written down and I had... Your guy was bad today. He was. You could have cemented the game. It was fourth and three from the 36 and you decided to go for it because your kicker was so bad.

It was cold and he's old. Yeah. And it's not a good omen for our round one loss to whoever we play. The Bengals... So, okay, fine. You win in Pittsburgh. Great.

Kenny Pickett, whatever. You should win. You're favored by four. Congratulations. With that said, Pittsburgh played really well in that game offensively. Pickett was lights out, at least in the first half.

In the second half, it kind of hit midnight for him in a couple plays. Pickett's had a pretty big drop with like three minutes left. That would have been interesting. Yeah. Pickens is the all time feast or famine guy. But the Bengals, Watt was wreaking havoc a little bit again,

but they, they made some shit happen. Mixon goes out in that game. Yeah. I think has been, you know, with, especially I think has been especially because Chase has missed four or five games now. Mixon has been their most reliable guy.

He's out. And it doesn't matter. They just kept rolling along. They made some plays, and now they're 6-4. I like their team, I think, as much as Baltimore. But Baltimore's got a game on them. But if you ask me,

which team do you like more? I think I would say Cincinnati. I don't know. I like Cincinnati. And just like you said, they put up 30 with P. Ryan at running back instead of Mixon and no Jamar Chase,

who had like 120 in the first time they played the Steelers. And they could take seven sacks and sometimes it doesn't matter and sometimes it does. But I don't see the Ravens putting up 30 points in a lot of games. I could see the Bengals doing it. But are those sacks going to matter?

Are these other things going to matter? I don't know. It's probably like three or four teams you can count on to average around 28 points, whoever Burrow is surrounded with. So you're asking me who I trust more, Ravens or Bengals? I really think it's a toss up in Baltimore in January. Bengals on Fando right now are plus four 20 to win the division. The Ravens are minus four 70.

They play again. And the Ravens are only up one game. One and a half. They beat them in there early in there. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know. I think the Bengals,

I think they're, uh, although their defense, that first half wasn't great, but I, I'd like that team at least as much as Baltimore. And then the Tennessee thing we didn't get to talk about from Thursday night, but God damn that team.

They're scary. Brable's good. He's going to get the most out of them. He's just every year. And now I lost my, I bet that under on them this year. Um, I think that's the only future bet I'm going to get really smacked on other

than Carolina to win the division. Really? I have like 30 of them. Wow. No, I probably have two Carolina bets. Actually. I had some good ones though.

I had Casey to win the division. Remember that was like, that was like, uh, like plus 140? Yeah, we loved it. Before the season. We put that with something else, and I'm afraid to look what we put that with.

Oh, God. What was it? Do you know? What was it? I don't know. I don't know. Was it bad? I don't know.

Let me look. I think it might have been all right. I think we had it with somebody to make the playoffs or something. Didn't we? Arizona to not make the playoffs and somebody to make the playoffs or something. Didn't we? Arizona to not make the playoffs and KC to make the playoffs. We're good. What was that? That was a good one.

Plus 144. Oh, there we go. All right. We're back in the game. But we also have the Chiefs to beat the Packers in the Super Bowl. So that's something. Yeah. The four and seven Packers?

Yeah. Yeah, they're done. Well, nine and eight, Mike. Are they done? Yeah. I was going to ask you about cross-offs. Yeah. Yeah, they're done. Well, nine and eight, Mike. Are they done? Yeah, I was going to ask you about cross-offs. Yeah, well. Here we go. Yeah, they have a tough schedule.

They're not going to get through this. Well, we're 11 weeks, so I think we could try to cross off 11, right? Houston's one and eight. They're out. Pittsburgh three and seven out. Denver three and seven out. Cleveland three and seven.

I'm crossing them off. Vegas three and seven. Jacksonville three and seven. So we have 6 cross-offs In the AFC Yep NFC Chicago 3-8 Carolina 3-8

Rams 3-7 Can't do any of these teams So now we have 10 Yeah Would you cross off Indy at 4-6-1? Like what What is their path

To make it to the playoffs? I don't know I think we have to sit With Jeff Saturday and Earth saying, listen, are you guys going to try to win or are you not going to try to win? Some of these games are exciting.

We need a cross-off. It's week 11. We need 11 cross-offs. You're really screwing with our system here. Other choices, Detroit and Arizona are 4-6. Arizona could be 4-7 tomorrow night. And then Green Bay 4-7.

I don't think detroit schedule is bad i was looking at i mean yeah they're winnable games there i was just looking at it well that's the thing with this thanksgiving game the thanksgiving matchups are actually pretty good this year yeah we'll take it yeah all right who's the backup but for the lions that would always go in and we wouldn't say we wouldn't even see Stafford or Goff. It would be Blight or Blout. Jeff Blight. Yeah. At least we're going to see something interesting this year.

Let's take one more break. We'll do Guess the Lines. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all.

Not at all. Trains move quietly so you won't hear them coming. You won't hear them coming. See, safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up.

Give what up? Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinx. Alright, before we do Guess the Lines, Jets 101, Super Bowl, Washington 110-1. Wasting of time.

Yeah. Titans 27-1, Chargers 41-1, Seahawks 50-1, Pats 65-1, Giants 75-1. I think all the long shots are dead. I don't like any of those. I think the longest long shot you can realistically look at is the Bengals 25-1, right? I was going to say that, yeah. And what are they?

What are they, like eighth? Yeah. Well, no, they're like in the mix for... Yeah, no, I mean odds wise how many down about 7 or 8 down well for the entire Super Bowl

they're like 10th oh they are yeah like the most alright let's do Guest Alliance

one of our favorite days of the year just in general in life yeah it's great the games are actually good this year my team is playing your team is playing days of the year, just in general, in life. Yeah, it's great. The games are actually good this year. My team is playing. Your team is playing.

Even the Lions game is going to be kind of fun. I don't know how they did it. And then Sunday is abysmal. But you know, we thought that this week and then it was bad. No, it was awful. The it was. It was awful. We the three late games

were were pretty brutal. All right. Thanksgiving. What's up? What are our records right now? You're six, two and three against me. I wish I could bet games

as well as I'm doing against the lines. I know. I know. I think I had a good week this week. Well, we'll see. Maybe you need to go

to the Pacific Northwest to pick games I've been hiding alright first one is Bills at Detroit I guess the Bills just stay in Detroit

they never they never go back Detroit feeling like a wee bit frisky seemed like their season was over they got killed by the Pats 29-0.

And it seems like that's a wrap for the Lions. But now, I don't know. Three in a row, right? These big, big, big home dogs. I don't know what the record is, but it's got to be pretty good this year for the home dogs. Just all the big dogs anyway. As soon as Carolina

three minutes into that game, you knew Carolina was going to cover against Baltimore. Shit, it seemed like if they had even had a C-minus at quarterback, I think they could have won that game. Yeah. Someone was asking if Baker is the most overhyped quarterback ever. I would rephrase it. Really getting close.

Is Baker the worst guy that's ever had multiple commercials? Oh. Worst NFL player with multiple commercials, multiple sponsors. You can go on YouTube right now, and there's at least five different State Farm ads with Baker Mayfield that they made with a camera crew,

and they were like, this is one of our guys. By the way, we love State Farm. It's just like that's where he was. Yeah, and we love Baker Mayfield. Don't get us wrong. No, why did he get five? He must have a great agent. Let's figure out who his agent is. I think they should keep

him. What's a bolder move than continuing to Baker Mayfield? I mean, State Farm, one of the things is you need insurance if something bad happens. It's like, here's Baker Mayfield. Something bad happened. Unfortunately, it was his career yeah he has he's gonna be in the xfl but stay farmer standing by him um bills at detroit i have the bills favored by eight points who are the the olympians dan and that had a dan and dave dan and dave they were obviously not nfl

players but they have those are good ones there yeah uh eight and a half all right see i get this Dan and Dave. They were obviously not NFL players. Those are good ones, though. 8.5? I get this. I said 9.5. It's 10. Whoa. Boom. Teaser. First leg. That seems high. Knock it out. You think they bumped

that by two points because it's Thanksgiving and they know we love to do teasers and parlays on Thanksgiving? Maybe. That's too high. Detroit can get cheap touchdowns. I saw every play of that Bills game again because it was on 10 of 11 screens today, but they actually

showed me a little something. They could have did you think they were going to blow it against the Browns? That offense came alive. I only feel like they take off a full quarter. We've seen like they take off like a full quarter where, as we've seen other teams take off a half or three quarters or something, but there they don't have it in them. And like,

he fights back Josh Allen, you know, if he's not throwing picks in the end zone, I think I, I like them a top three. I mean, this is not, I'm not saying anything like anyone should know,

but he's top three. And, and if they have a running game, look out. I'm with you. There was a moment in that that bills brown's game when it looked like it was going sideways in a real way remember they came back from commercial and mcdermott had his head next to stefan digs yeah yeah and his arm around him and he was talking to him for like 25 seconds like a dad yelling at like a 12 year old but doing it in a way not to show

them up. Right. I was like, whoa, this is interesting. Are the bills like self combusting? And then like 10 minutes later, they were up double digits. Yeah. Right. Yeah.

But I'm with you. They showed a little something. And I also think with the Browns, what are their eight, 10, 11 teams this year that if they can get the lead in the first quarter, they're good. The Giants are like that, right? The Patriots are like that, where they just want to get up like 7-0, 10-3, and then they can kind of execute their ball control defense thing. And it felt like the Browns had that in place.

Yeah. The thing was they couldn't get Chubb going. No, nothing. Nothing. He needed the snow. The snow hurt them, not being able to play in it. I think that line's too high, and yet I will not bet on Jared Goff on Thanksgiving

because it's un-American. Your team is home for the Dallas football Giants, or the New York football Giants. I hate the way that sounded, Dallas football Giants. Dallas football Giants sounds awful. I think this is a straight seven-point Cowboys over the Giants. Dallas football Giants. That's awful. I think this is a straight seven point Cowboys over the Giants. I'm getting way ahead of myself here with this

Cowboys team. I thought it was nine and a half and you're right. It's exactly seven. Yeah. I mean, they have 30% of their roster intact. The Giants. We beat him with Cooper Rush. We're clicking like what I don't even

know. Daniel Jones is, you know, we had a running quarterback against us, Justin Fields, and we won that fairly easily. I think as long as Dak is in his routine, it's going to be a double-digit win. But go ahead. You can take seven. You guys played so well today that even

things that didn't work out were amazing plays. Like, at the end of the first half cd lamb makes that catch on the sidelines oh they though they didn't turn it over they kept they they said it counted yeah that was before the field goal yeah yeah but it seemed like he lifted his foot up and it was still amazing it was like whether this counts or not right the greatest catch i've seen today. You guys play really well. The Pollard stuff is working great.

Pollard, whatever you want to say, he should start, but then sometimes we do need Zeke in the short yardage and to block and do all those

other good things. So, yeah, it's really working out. I, uh, Pollard was spectacular. I mean, he's just week to week now looks like one of the

five most talented running backs if you didn't know anything. Yeah. You're just like watching the games. You're like, that guy's got to be one of the best most talented running backs, if you didn't know anything. Yeah. You're just like watching the games. You're like, that guy's got to be one of the best running backs. No, he's actually in a platoon. That guy must have gone for $62 in fantasy.

No, actually not. That's not how it played out. Right. This Giants team, they should have lost to Houston. We talked about that last week. They were never really in the Lions game. No.

Like really from 40 minutes in the game was over. We had a, we did for a million dollar picks. We did a little Giants parlay the first half with Giants to win, which was like plus 130. Figuring like if the Giants

are going to win the game, they have to win the first half if they fall behind. That's how they do it. Yeah. Yeah. I gave up on that one at about the 40 minute mark.

You can just kind of tell. They don't have it. Well, they don't have. Look, they're DVOA. They're like 22nd offense, a 26 defense. They're not very good. I'm not saying a lot here. They're not very good. You could ask me, are they very good? No, they're not very good. Now people are going to get mad that I say they're not very

good, but they're not. And so, yeah, they should lose one of these toss-up games. I do think they're undervalued a lot of not this week, but a lot of times when they're favored against Detroit or Houston, it's only three and three and a half. It's like, wow, this doesn't make sense. Team has seven wins, but

it's very similar to Tennessee, but Tennessee at least has the pedigree. The Giants don't have any pedigree right now. But Tennessee, same thing, where you're like, oh, last week, last Thursday, they're getting three and a half in Green Bay. And they're seven and two in Green Bay's four and five. And it's like, whoa, that's not very respectful.

But nobody's killing themselves to bet on the Titans. Thursday night, Vikings-Patriots. You love this. You love this spot. I really don't. I can't tell you how excruciating it is to watch a Patriots offense. My dad and I were talking about some of the worst Patriots offenses we've ever had. We're going back to the 80s with Matt Cavanaugh. It's just, we don't understand. Every play is so complicated. We don't have plays where Mac just drops back and there's just a guy wide open 12 yards down the field.

Like every other TV I'm watching for eight hours, it's everything has to be like bubble screen or fake reverse or he fakes it this side. No, it's actually going this way. And it just, it's like, they don't trust them at all. Everything has to be complete trickery and any chance they can get to just do the safest thing possible. Then they do it like third and eight.

Should we have them try to throw it in traffic? Now let's go short and we'll just punt in our defense. They put so much pressure on this defense because they don't trust them. And people point to the completion percentage. I'm telling you, I watched the Patriots every week. Like it's smoke and mirrors.

A lot of it was yards after the catch. It's not great. All right. But I think you could add two points to the spread, whatever you're going to guess, because your kicker will have a chance, right? It won't be outdoors.

It won't be cold. It's in Minnesota. Yeah, their kicker sucks. Well, here's the big thing for me with this is if the Vikings left tackle isn't playing, I actually think our defense

can kind of dominate them. And what about just in general? Like, wouldn't you, if you have a not-so-great team, and I say this, but you're going to get the seventh seed, but wouldn't you want to play

every Thursday under Belichick? You know he's going to have them ready for this game, right? Like, that's kind of, like, yeah. Sign us up for every Thursday under Belichick? You know, he's going to have them ready for this game, right? Like that's the kind of like, yeah, sign us up for every Thursday, the rest of the way.

I think this is bikes by three and a half. Yeah, you got it. Exactly. I said five. I mean, they're eight and two. They're still giving teams three and a half at home. All right.

So what out of those six teams, bills, lions, Cowboys, giants, Vikings, Patriboys, Giants, Vikings, Patriots, who's going to fuck over the most Thanksgivings? I'm going to say the Vikings.

You know how many? I would love to. I'm very confident in everything. I would love to have one Thanksgiving where I didn't have to worry about my team playing. I really would. Just one.

Just one. I mean, because if they lose to the Giants, my whole four days. Oh, poor Sal. He doesn't like his team on Thanksgiving. Oh, poor baby. I just want to eat in peace. Just let me eat.

Come on. You know we lost to Washington. There's 20 fan bases who would kill to have their team play at Thanksgiving. Do you know how many times we've lost as an eight-point favorite on Thanksgiving? 35. Now, I made that up, but it really seems like every other year. This is a great slate. Bills, Lions, Cowboys, Giants, Vikes, Pats.

Three very interesting games. I would have put all three of these games in the watchable category. What if we bet Moneyline underdogs? I'm not really going to bet against my Cowboys, but you go at least one and two, right? Someone screws this up? It doesn't feel like all three favorites win. Your team comes through again. I'm not counting out the defense and the special teams.

You know what's funny? We had a backup punter today because our punter was hurt, Jake Bailey, who's having the worst Patriots punting season since like the late seventies. And, uh, and this guy comes in, I can't remember his name. He's pretty good. Yeah. It's like, let's keep this guy. But our special teams like Marcus Jones has been on every, every game. You feel like he's going to break one. He finally did it. And, uh, did you know he did it last year in college? He did what? He would like 20 seconds left Houston in a tie game.

They punted to him and he had like the game winning punt return touchdowns. Like the same thing was 10 seconds more on the clock. Probably the block that they didn't count. Same thing. Oh, stop it. They were side by side. on the clock, probably. The legal block that they didn't count? Same thing? Oh, stop it. They were side by side. By the way,

I had some Jets fans complaining about that. Yeah. All right, so let's say they call it. It's, it's, the block was on like the eight yard line. No, I know. But they don't cover.

So the foul goes backwards. Yeah, but they don't cover. It hurts the cover. That's it. That's what we're talking about. Wasn't a great block. I absolutely love Marcus Jones. Kyle, I know we have the Panda Jack jersey,

but we might have to investigate the Marcus Jones. We should just have had a Jones with movable numbers. Yeah, do you have an MA Jones? You're good. Just use that one. Love that guy. Put the new numbers in. Sunday marquee game.

You might not agree with this, and I don't care. Where is it? I have Tennessee Cincinnati as our marquee Sunday game, which gives you a little insight to what Sunday's slate is like. It's in Tennessee. I got this one wrong. I think the Titans

are favored by one and a half. Oh, good. Wow. I said Titans by one. It is Cincinnati by two. On 10 days rest, Brable. You should crush Burrow, right? Wait a minute. Didn't he sack him nine times in the playoffs?

I know they lost. That was a year ago. At some point, the Titans are going to have to get respect. And I don't know what week it's going to be, but this is, yeah, you're right. The Bengals beat the Titans last year, and that's probably why they're favored in this game. Yeah, I guess so. Now, listen, I don't condone going out and driving drunk, but when the offensive coordinator gets like Tannehill to... I could see why he was celebrating. Just don't do it on the road.

But he got Tannehill through for over 300 yards. Malik Willis was throwing for 60. They weren't in the games because, right? When you don't have to load up Henry for 35 carries, it's a win no matter what. The watchables, I have one. Washington against the Falcons. I guarantee that's going to be a fun game.

On paper, it's like, what, really? That's the second best game of Sunday? I'm telling you. I watch a lot of football, as do you. That game will be super fun. It will come down in the last five minutes and I can't wait to watch it. I have Washington favored by three.

Yeah, you got it exact. I thought it'd be a little more. I have watched it favored by three. Yeah, you got it exact. I thought it'd be a little more. I said four. It's three. Why shouldn't it be four? Will you ask me if I'd rather have Taylor Heineke or Mac Jones as my quarterback? I can't even get mad at you about that. Isn't that sad?

I'd rather have Heineke. You would? I don't know what happened to Mac Jones this year. What about Mariota or Mac Jones? My dad and I were trying to think of things. Mariota, I'd rather have Mac Jones than Mariota. We're just hoping it comes out after the year that he's been playing with an injury

because it's the only thing that makes sense. Yeah. The guy last year versus the guy this year, I don't get it. It's a weird thing to root for for a person. It's like, oh, he did have a torn rotator cuff. Exactly. Fairly watchables.

I have six. First one, Bucks at Browns. Bucks coming off a bye. Bucks ready to go on a little run in a really shitty division. This is the last one without Deshaun, right?

12? Yeah. By the time he comes back, they'll be just about out of the playoff picture yeah I have Bucks by three can't you just give me this one I had three also it's exactly three

yeah it feels like we've had more three point lines in the last few weeks than I can ever remember yeah and everything's like around two and a half, three, three and a half. Not get scared.

I was proud of something I did today. It was one three pointer that I didn't freak out about. And I took the right side. Oh, well, you're I got very lucky. You're lucky. Your Patriots was my bet of the week. As much as I'm making fun of this, I love that. I was like, they've won 13 in a row.

This is going to be a letdown game for the Jets. I didn't deserve to win. Maybe deserve the push, but some of these three-point spreads, you just shouldn't be afraid of. I will say they deserve to cover that game. The Jets had 103 yards in offense, and we dropped

two picks, and they did literally nothing for three hours. Just look at the threes. The Commanders were three over the Texans, right? Maybe it went up a little bit. Giants? Just take it. Giants, all right. Gi look at the threes. The commanders were three over the Texans, right? Maybe it went up a little bit, but giants just take it. Giants. All right.

Giants was the bad one. Falcons bears was a push. That was three. Yeah. Um, next one. Oh, by the way,

with the, with the Brady, with the weird, should he come back? All that stuff. And then Iger just blew him out of the water. Iger's like, hold my beer. Hold my kale smoothie. Wow. Yeah, he's back.

Hold my avocado popsicle. All right. Jets-Bears in New York. I almost want to bet this now before they do the QB change because I think the QB change has to be worth at least two points, even though it's Mike White. White Lotus creator Mike White starting for the Jets.

I have Jets by two and a half over the Bears. I would take Michael Imperioli over Zach Wilson at this point. How many White Lotus characters would you take before you get to Zach Wilson? Creator Mike White. Grandfather, maybe. I want to see him for a quarter. How many weight lotus characters would you take before you get to Zach Wilson? Creator McWaite. The grandfather, maybe. I want to see him for a quarter. And then maybe we could take him. F. Murray Abraham versus Zach Wilson.

Not even. Albie, definitely. Oh, the guy, happy horny guy. Definitely take him. That guy. Yeah, that guy could absolutely get to 10 points against the Pats. Both prostitutes. Yeah, I think we got a good list.

At least nine. Yeah. I have Jets by two and a half over the Bears. I said two. This is dumb. This is just dumb. You're right. It's three and a half.

That's dumb. I don't care. I know Chicago's better to root for, and they're just better. Do you think they're already factoring in the QB change though? For the Jets? Yeah. Well, the other thing is Fields is complaining about something shoulder related too. Right.

But still, I'll be mad if the Jets win that game. Next one is a game I won't be betting. Ravens home against the Jaguars. It's a lucky. Yeah.

I want no part of this game either way. I hit it. Exactly. Best wishes. You hit it. Exactly. Did you guess Ravens by eight? No,

you should get minus two games for that. It's four. Ravens by four. Ravens home against the Jaguars? No, Jaguars are home. I'm not letting you do that again.

I'm sorry. All right, I'll take the loss. I won that one. Yeah. What's the actual line? Four. Ravens are favored by four. Well, you would have won anyway.

I would have guessed three if I knew it was the Jacks. Well, next one is Char anyway. I would have guessed three if I knew it was in Jacksonville. Next one is Chargers. By the way, how many times can the Ravens just suck for an hour and a half? More. Where they just look like

complete dog shit or two hours and then they kind of get it going 11 minutes left in the game and then we're supposed to pretend we didn't see the first two hours. Like, how many of those do you get? Since I can work in the playoffs and the playoffs, if you suck we didn't see the first two hours. How many of those do you get? Since I can work in the playoffs. In the playoffs, if you suck for two hours, guess what's going to happen?

You're just going to lose and go home. It's kind of like the opposite of what it usually has been. Tucker is going to win it for us in the fourth quarter or overtime. Now it's like Tucker is going to score all our points for the first three quarters and then maybe our offense will come alive in the fourth quarter. We'll force some weird turnover or something. It's weird. Lamar hasn't exactly

had the greatest contract drive, but the other quarterbacks in the league has made his value worth even more. Yeah. When you watch all the other quarterbacks, you're like,

oh, Lamar's worth like $700 million. Chargers at Arizona. I think this is Chargers by three you get it I said one and it's two and a half I have trouble with these I'm not sure Arizona has a game left

and then we have to see if Kylo Murray's playing that's a lot of well they're better off with Colt McCoy tomorrow yeah maybe Seahawks home for the Raiders it's our fifth fairly watchable I know. That's a lot of game. Well, they're better off with Colt McCoy tomorrow. Yeah, maybe. Seahawks home for the Raiders. It's our fifth fairly watchable. And who knows with the Raiders?

Raiders with, it seemed like it was in play for McDaniels to potentially get fired before the end of the season. Yeah. Although it's not his fault that they, you know, they've blown like three straight years of drafts but you know we we talked like russell wilson blew that like he should have gotten yeah he did there's sometimes when well how do you not know when you should take a sack and when you shouldn't take a sack like this year i've seen more quarterbacks who should take a sack throw it incomplete and then give the you know the losing team an extra minute or 45 seconds or i've seen

them when they can't take a sack, run out of bounds on third and 12. Just fling it down the field. You can't get... Russell Wilson should know. He blew that game. I think it's almost like what happens to professional wrestlers with happening with Russell Wilson,

where these guys were awesome, and then it's like, man, that guy's in a dark match? That guy was leading WrestleMania two years ago. What happened? Why is it Vince pushing him? It's like, no, this is actually real life.

He can control his own destiny. He should know to drape his foot over the rope on a two count. What's the matter with him? We didn't, oh, we didn't do Seahawks. I have a, it's in Seattle. I have Seahawks byRaiders yet. It's in Seattle.

I have Seahawks by four and a half. Do I get this? Yes. I said four. It's three and a half. It's three and a half. Jesus. Not a lot of respect for the Seahawks.

No. The Raiders stink. Oh, man. Am I going to get roped into the Seahawks again? God damn it. Of course you are. Of course you are. It's only four o'clock

games. I am. With New York Jets, 2023 starter Derek Carr. Last fairly watchable is 49ers home for the Saints. Are they home or is it in New Orleans? Yeah, you're right. 49ers home. 49ers home for the Saints

and I have the 49ers by seven points. All right. Here's where I make my move. I had eight. It's eight and a half. Oh, stop.

Six to six. 49ers getting so much respect. Come on. Well, they were seven over the Chargers last week. I know. Come on. You have to think they're more. Here we go.

This has a chance to be the highest line we've had in six weeks. Dolphins home for the Houston Texans who are 1-8-1. I think we get to 14 with this, Sal. I have Dolphins by 14. All right. Let me check because you're way off or I'm way off.

I said 11 and I saw 10 and a half, but let's see what this is. What? It's 11 and a half now. It's 11 and a half now. So I get it either way. All right, don't get mad. We'll just put it on a nice teaser.

Blow it out that way. I don't see any scenario where they don't score at least 35 points. Yeah, they can't keep up with them. So Houston has, I know we did this already, but we should just do it quickly again. Houston has their own pick and Cleveland's pick.

Mm-hmm. Yeah, they finally righted the ship after O'Brien. Remember they had no picks? Right. It's so funny. It's like, wait a second. So you're the team that had no future at all. And now you have Cleveland's pick, which right now they're in a multi-team tie at three and seven. Panthers are three and eight, Bears are three and eight, and Texans are one, eight, and1. So that could be like a top five pick potentially.

Yeah. And then the Rams are 3-7. The Lions have their pick. And then what was the other one that was the pick? Broncos. Broncos. Oh, yeah. Broncos are 3-7.

And Seattle has their pick. And the Saints. Yeah. Right? Yep. And the Browns, obviously. Second poop fact again, Panthers-Broncos.

Panthers hung around in that Ravens game and might actually have a decent defense. I think they have to be favored because the Broncos are just... I've just never seen a team screw themselves up more.

So I'm going to say Panthers by one. I can't even figure out who gets this. I think I do. The Denver's favorite by two and a half. I said pick them. I had such a headache trying to figure this out. I was like, I'm just dropping... Pick them down.

So the Broncos are a road favorite. Broncos are a road favorite. That's stupid. I might end up betting the Panthers. No, just come on. How many times? I mean, you have to bet the Panthers every week. Did you just take this week off?

I didn't bet them this week. When they covered. Three out of four weeks. Yeah, that's true. Oh, here's another one for our three-teamer. Yeah. Chiefs-Rams. So who screws this up is what I was going to ask you.

Buffalo, Miami, or the Chiefs? We got Chiefs by 11? What is it? You're going to get that. I said eight and a half. It's 10 and a half. You're right. I mean, the defending champs are getting double digits now.

Chiefs Rams, 10 and a half. Dolphins Texans, 11 and a half. And the Bills favored by 10 in Detroit. But over and over again, these big dogs at home have fucked over the favorites. I know. Just win. Just win though.

Three teamer. Hmm. Could take. Who is it? Bryce Perkins is the quarterback for the Rams. Who could take my team to 13 and a half. Mm-hmm. Pats plus 13 and a half.

Our defense will keep that close. I don't like that. I don't like that. The Bills will not be, you know, they're not going to come out of nowhere at Detroit. They've won three in a row.

Well, the good one with Bills-Lions is you just lose that one. It's the first game of the week. That's right. If you're a three-teamer, you're that one. Yeah, they just keep doubling up. You got plenty first game of the week. That's right. If you have the three-teamer, that one, then yeah.

Yeah, they just keep doubling up. You got plenty of chances. Ohio State, you got it all. Sunday night, Eagles-Packers. It's in Philadelphia. Eagles at an interesting moment right now with their fans, with people that follow the NFL.

Not sure what to make of them anymore. I know they're a Super Bowl contender. They seem very vulnerable. I don't think anybody's going to be terrified to play them. Now, they might get Jordan Davis back in the next couple weeks. Goddard's going to come back eventually. Never done well in dealing.

I have the Eagles favored by eight points against green Bay. You're going to get it. I said eight and a half, which is what it should be. Six and a half. Oh, hello. I'm just trying to think of how many night games Rogers could lose.

Is it possible? He just goes through all these. It's just worse and worse. Did you watch that whole game Thursday? Yeah. Yeah. Rogers was terrible. He really was like,

he was, I think that was the worst game I've ever seen him play. Just crossing rows all over the place. He was missing guys. He was late. His body language was bad. I didn't even feel like guys. He was late. His body language was bad. I didn't even feel like the Titans played that well. I thought he was bad.

Yeah. Yeah, he missed wide open guys a lot. Over and over again. He looked awful. All right, well, let's work backwards here. This Collins word, what's it going to be like? It's like, oh, Aaron Rodgers. Look at it.

Are we going to be like, he's not himself? Or is it going to be like, It's like, oh, Aaron Rodgers. Look at it. Are we going to be like, he's not himself? Or is it going to be like, that's the Aaron Rodgers we know. I do worry that that's the Aaron Rodgers we know is going to be the prevailing thought. I think it's the, I don't think, Mike, I don't think he trusts his team. I don't think he trusts these guys, Mike. I think he'll make excuses for them. Yeah. They ran out of ayahuasca at halftime.

You can't expect this guy to perform. I was on a text thread with somebody recently trying to figure out what Rodgers is going to look like five years from now. Just like as a person, as a public figure. Yeah. And whether there's like possibility for him to become almost reviled like what happened with kurt schilling whether that's like in play like at

least like five to one outs i think so yeah man i i'm not predicting it but i i do think like if you're gonna say which football star i guess brady would be the other possibility which football star, I guess Brady would be the other possibility. Which football star is going to be reviled five years from now? Maybe nobody will be. Hopefully the answer is nobody. Well, well, will they stick them on jeopardy? Will he be that hateable?

I mean, Brady's involved in this FTX thing and had a whole charity thing. He's had the craziest. It's all time rollercoaster year where the rollercoaster is mostly just going down at full speed and then like a couple ups, but down, down, down. He's lucky. Herschel Walker was born. That's the football player. Herschel Walker.

There's another example of a reviled post star. For years, we knew Herschel Walker for the Heisman trophies and for the trade that created the Dallas Cowboys dynasty, basically. And the USFL. I guess those are the three things. And now? Monday night. Alright, this is it. So we're tied. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 to

8 to 8. And I was off by a half a point. Monday night. Zombie Matt Ryan and Jeff Saturday's Indianapolis Colts against the Pickett Pickens Tomlin Steelers.

I have the Colts favored by two and a half. We tie. I said three and a half. It's three. I needed one week. I needed to steal a half. It's three. Ah! I needed one week. I needed to steal this week. God.

Poor Troy and Buck. When did this game ever look good? I think the Colts are kind of fun to watch. No, I'm just saying the beginning of the year. I'm trying to think of... Can they bring Jim Irsay in the booth? Can I make any requests? We get 10 minutes of Jim Irsay.

How about Jeff Saturday in the booth? He's barely coaching anyway. Bring him on. Yeah, you're right. Jeff Saturday is going to join us for the second quarter. Hold on. I just got to tell my guys to punt. Give me one second.

Yeah, they do it with baseball managers, right? During the game. Get them in there. I like the Steelers. I hope that line goes to three and a half. All right. Let's do parent corner. Today's parent corner is brought to you by CarMax.

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Archie, the university and maybe get him out of the house and then everyone else will follow. That'd be nice. I looked on the schedule a month ago and I see they're playing Utah. One of their arch rivals. It's a night game. I'm like, all right, we're going to make a big weekend out of this. The tour is Monday or whatever. Saturday, we'll go to the game.

I buy tickets for the five of us. It'll be a fun weekend. We don't even mention I'm going to Oregon on the podcast, on Guest Alliance, but I think I said Pacific Northwest or something. And so in the middle of the week, I get a DM from the president of the university in Oregon. Patrick Phillips heard us talking about me going somewhere in the Pacific Northwest. He's a big fan of the podcast. He'd love it if I joined him in the president's box. And so now I look, yeah, I was like, wow. So I look him up because

I know this would be a great prank by you and about 15 people I know. So I do my due diligence and I figure out this is actually the guy. Wait a second. Hold on. How many suspects were there for pranking you pretending to be the Oregon president? There was you and my cousin Jimmy was the next seven. And then, yeah, yeah, there was a lot. There was a lot of friends and enemies. Yeah, this would have been a great one. But anyway, I go back and forth on him.

He sets it up and he's like, yeah, come in the second quarter. And so we go to the game and we have a great time and everyone's nice and it's super loud and cold. And then in the second quarter, we walk all the way to the president's box and he's right there waiting for us. As soon as the doors open, he's waiting for us. And he says, he's a huge fan. He says, actually says the words, he says, I've been a fan of Bill's for all my life.

And I was like, okay, you appear to be in your fifties yourself, the president, but I don't say anything. So, uh, and he's talking to my youngest about the various parent corners, like, uh, Harrison, he calls him Harris. So, and he was really nice. He did everything, but hand Archie a fake ID. I was like, what, this is really, this is something else. And then he says, you know, uh, if accepted, I'd be honored to have, uh, Archie, I'd be honored to have Archie. I'd be honored to have you attend the university. And then he walks. He's like, I'd eat the buffet and then go back to your seats or don't or whatever.

And he leaves. And then, you know, I'm starting to get emotional. And I grab Archie and I'm like about to well up in tears. And I grab him and I say, you know, Archie, I want you know, if you do get into Oregon, it's only because of me and Simmons. There's nothing to do with you. Kind of hung his head. He got bummed out.

And I was like, I'm kidding. My wife did not think it was amusing at all. But anyway, so that's the story. We go back to our seats, Oregon one by three. It was very exciting. There you go. So now he's just going to our seats. Oregon won by three. It was very exciting. There you go. So now he's just going to, despite you, go anywhere else. He's going anywhere else.

The number two, number three choices. Well, what a great school. And they won too, right? And they won 2017. Did they cover? They covered. They were getting points because their quarterback, Bonex, was supposed to be out. They played suited up at the last minute.

Holy shit. That was the parent corner. Yeah They suited up at the last minute. Holy shit. What a story. Parent corner. Yeah. That's emotional. Good job by you and us. I have two half-parent corners. One is my son, who's going to a really hard high school

and is learning on the fly a lot of study habits. But biology has been his toughest course. And then he said, in the last week, he started to get momentum in biology. And we were like, what's the difference? He's like, I'm taking notes. And we're like, what do you mean? He's like, taking notes in class.

Somebody else in class, I noticed them doing it. So now I'm doing it and it's really helped. And we're like, wait a second, what? He's like, I'm doing it and it's really helped. And we're like, wait a second, what? He's like, I'm taking notes. Like the teacher, like he tells stuff and I just write down the stuff. And I had somebody I was sitting next to told me, you know, like just write like the most important things the teacher says down. And like, it helps me memorize. And we're like, wait, what?

He went to this other school that I won't mention through eighth grade and they never taught him or pushed him to take notes during class. And he had this big revelation about how important note-taking is in class. Wow. Yeah. So now look out, sky's the limit for Ben Simmons now. So my wife says, Ben, what were you doing in class during the class as the teacher talked? Then you, if you weren't taking notes and he's like, I don't know, I just would stare at the chalkboard. Wow. Yeah. My son, sky's the limit. First of all, for him to say I'm getting momentum in biology, that should have scared you just in general. Right. But he meant the class.

But that is amazing. Like, I'm taking notes. I'm going to bring a pen. I have a trapper keeper. I'm not going to wear earbuds. The kid might get into Harvard now that he has unlocked this note-taking thing. I love it. I don't know what's next for him.

Then my daughter, so she had this big week. She had, you know, her high school soccer season starting. She's the captain. She's all pumped. They had this little media day that they do. The school does for every team.

It was on Thursday. And then this big team sleepover on Friday. And, you know, you rise through the ranks. You start as a ninth grader. They had the pandemic 10th grade last year was kind of a ninth grader. The pandemic, 10th grade. Last year was kind of a messed up season.

It's like now finally, I get to be the captain. It's going to be great. And my dad was coming for his... So she's all fired up. She's like, can't wait for the end of the week. Starts to feel a little sick Monday, Tuesday. Calls me from school Wednesday.

I have COVID. Oh, man. Comes home and is just on the IR the rest of the week, misses everything. And meanwhile, I was in the car with her. She thinks she had it. They thought she had it from like Saturday, Sunday, because she wasn't feeling well Sunday. She missed her last club game. And then, but then I was in the car with her on Monday driving all the way around. So I don't have it. Can we figure out a rhyme or reason

to COVID at this point? No way. Nah. It's just all over the map. You're with people. It's like, hey, just so you know, I had COVID last night. It's like, all right, does that mean I'm going to get it? I don't even know. So anyway, it ruined her whole week. She was bummed out. It felt bad. hey, just so you know, I had COVID last night. It's like, all right, does that mean I'm going to get it? I don't even know. So anyway, it ruined her whole week. She was bummed out.

It felt bad. No, that sucks. That sucks. Yeah, you can't. I don't think any of us are more careful. Well, there are some people who are careful, but I don't know. We make the Corolla joke. Are we less careful than Corolla at this point?

I don't know. I go about my business. We had like 180 people at my birthday party in July of 21. One person got it. Then I've been in parties with 15 people and six of them get it. Right. You were in the president's suite. I guaranteed

everybody was masked up or in the college football game with 100,000 people. It's not like you're worried about... I don't know. I've been to basketball games. I don't think about it anymore, but yet. Well, listen, you know, out there and it feels like it's going to get worse. Your son, Ben is getting momentum in biology. Maybe he could explain it to us depending on the, I'm going to ask him if the teacher brings it up. I'll just read Ben's notes and he takes the notes anyway. Uh, all

right. That's a, That's it for Parent Corner. Today's Parent Corner was brought to you by CarMax. CarMax makes shopping for a car easy for everyone with tens of thousands of CarMax certified cars to choose from. There's a perfect match for your budget and your life. Learn more at CarMax.com. CarMax. Car buying.

Reimagine. All right. Before we go. Yeah. So, tomorrow Team USA plays. By the time a lot of people hear this, maybe the game already happened.

But we have all this World Cup stuff. We have all this college football stuff. We have NBA in full swing. There's World Cup games. There's three on Monday and then four every day after that for the next couple. Great week.

College football on Saturday. And this is where, as your friend, I'm a little worried about you. This is like too much sports. And I know you're going to try to bet on all of it. I didn't even mention hockey and some of the other things going on. But this, I know you're going to bet on the World Cup.

I know you're going to have cross-sport parlays. Like, what do we... You have your own podcast, the Extra Points Podcast, where we can hear some of the bets. you have the against all odds pot as well. But I, I just, I don't know what you're capable of. Is this going to be good? Is this going to be bad? What, what? I don't either. And I'm worried about, I'll tell you what, specifically Wednesday. And I haven't even seen the soccer games and I don't even love soccer, but you know,

everybody crams, tries to cram the weekend so they're off Wednesday and Thursday and Friday. That's what's going to be bad for me. I'll tell you one bet I made for soccer. This is my, you know how I do the no buzzer beaters? You hate it because it's like betting. I do because you hate fun. How about this? Over four and a half

zero zero games in the entire tournament. So you need five zero zero games. Zero entire tournament. So you need five, zero, zero games. Zero, zero. What happens? So when it gets the penalty kicks,

the zero, zero, still zero, zero regulation. Yeah. And regulation. Yep. The 90,

that seems like a good bet. You want to jump on? I'll give you, I'll give you 5,000. I don't hate fun. Yeah. Fun. Winning's fun.

Who do you like? I mean, everyone loves USA, but they're like, what, minus 140 to get in the next round? Steve Cerruti, who I trust, he's a valued and beloved producer for us, but he's also hosted a World Cup betting show last week for us on The Gambling Show. He loved Uruguay at 40 to 1. He thought for a long shot value, he thought that was pretty good. I'm going to end up doing a long shot bet, I think. Don't do it, though, because our soccer guys, Toby Mergo said that only eight countries have won this in the whole history. So you could take like Harry Loves Belgium and some other, but you just.

So I just have to find the eight countries that won. And those are the only eight I can bet. I don't know. I mean, that's if you want history to have any part of it, like take the Netherlands or something at 14 to one, that would be like a long, a potentially winnable long shot.

Can I ask you one question? Yeah. So when we bet that when we bet, I screwed this up every four years with the World Cup. So you can bet the team to win, either team to win, right? Or you can bet the tie in regulation. Those are the three bets.

But then you have the other, I'm betting this team, the final result of this game will be that the team wins. That's for the next round, right? That's for the next round. I don't have to worry about that yet. No, you're good. You have three options in this. Win, lose, tie. There's only three things I can bet on.

So USA, home plus 135, or win plus 135, tie plus 200, lose plus 230? That's correct. Yep.

Why is it so complicated? I don't feel like they like us that much with the soccer. No, I know. So you could bet tie, no bet, right? So if it ends in a tie, you just push. But then you're betting USA minus 155 or Wales plus 120. So you could do... Like you could bet

USA, right? And Pulisic to score at any time plus 499. That seems like the sucker bet of all time. By the way, did you hear I don't know why he's on my TV, but Jason Garrett says Pulisic, he says get the rock to pull a check.

I was like, you Garrett said that you get anything right. Is there any single thing you can get right on television? Then he clapped. Get off my TV. Play check. Oh my God. It's the best. I've had a lot of people comment about the eight second.

I love it. Before the halftime. Have you got, have you got me into it? Yeah. You got me into it. Archie laughed. My son was like,

Oh, you have no idea. Simmons has been on this for like a month. It's so great. Coming up. The other thing I love, and this is, you know how people make these weird YouTube clips.

NBC. When they do the, those graphics that somebody spent three days on, where it's like all the people Justin Herbert's throwing a touchdown to in his career, but it's set in Disneyland and it's different rides. And you know somebody spent all this time in this graphic and then they have to spend the extra 10 seconds on it because somebody spent two days on it. I would just love to see a YouTube clip of like the worst 10 of those. Because there was one they had last week and I can't remember what it was, but it was three

receivers and they had full batteries next to them. And it was like, but then when they get hurt and then the batteries went down like your iPhone, I was like, oh, the battery one. Good one, Bob. People are dumb. They need explosive things exploding on their screen. That should be a Twitter feed. If Twitter can survive this next couple of weeks,

somebody needs to have a Twitter feed of all of these bizarre, uh, super over the top graphic things. Uh, all right, cuz what do you got to plug? There it is against all odds. Extra points.

Uh, yeah, it's a covered in glories. Our soccer podcast, Megan fund of sports, Lemon Pepper Parley Minus. We got them all. The Extra Points Podcast Network. Check them all out. Like you said, there is a ton.

This is the best week. This is the best week. It really is. This is Thanksgiving on top of everything else. No one say April or March or anything. Well, we missed your dinner last night. The big revelation was Dixon has written off Mike August and said he's dead to him. I know.

I heard that on the phone. August is stupid. He's going to hear this, by the way. He listens to us. Well, Dixon said he's dead to him. And it wasn't like there's no chance to make up. It's over. It's a wrap.

It's done. I know. A 40-year friendship has thrown out the window. I like it because he wouldn't go to the wedding, right? it's over it's a wrap it's done I know a 40 year friendship is thrown out the window I like it because he wouldn't go to the wedding right he booked some

San Diego trip or something not only did he not 75 bucks go to the wedding he booked a Corolla thing were you still on the air like four months

in four months before the wedding right and then never RSVP'd yeah and also pulled Corolla

out of the wedding mix because he booked Corolla a gig. So Dixon's out. Yeah, but he's going to get a nice gift, right? For August. Hey, what? Let me guess.

Where'd you go? Let me guess the bill. Or did you go? Oh, I don't know. We went to Bianco Pizza. So there was no... Oh, that stinks. I can't describe how much pizza was eaten.

Really? Yeah. Bianco Pizza is the worst thing that's happened to me. It's so great. I'm so jealous. I'm definitely... If I'm ever going to get to 200 pounds, it'll be because Chris Bianco opened a pizza place in LA.

You know what? I may have to go for Thanksgiving now. Screw this other stuff. After like 8 o'clock? Yeah. Yeah. Why not? All right, Sal. Congrats on your big Oregon trip. Yeah. And as always, good this other stuff. After like an eight o'clock. Yeah. Why not? All right. So congrats on your big Oregon trip.

Yeah. And as always, good job at you. Good job by you, buddy. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Matt Bellany. Thanks to cousin Sal.

Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing as always. Happy birthday, Kyle. I will see you on this feed on Tuesday.