The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Mega-NBA Power Poll, Advice for KD, Cuban’s Curious Sale and Million Dollar Picks Week 17 With Warren Sharp and Joe House

Episode Date: December 28, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares his end of 2023 NBA Power Poll in which he ranks all 30 NBA teams (1:06). Then he is joined by Joe House and Warren Sharp to run through their favorite Week 17 games to bet on (58:35), before Bill makes the Million Dollar Picks for NFL Week 17 (2:07:24). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Joe House and Warren Sharp Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, a lot of football, a lot of basketball next. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey. And it's on Prime.

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Guess the Lines and my Sal pod will be at some point Monday afternoon. And then the schedule will probably go back to normal next week. So that's what we got. For this podcast, I'm doing a massive NBA power poll at the top. And then Warren Sharp and Joe House, I grabbed them from the Ringer Gambling Show. And we're going to go through all the week 17 games, try to figure out some million dollar picks. This is a fun one.

First, our friends from ProGem. All right. It's my last podcast of 2023. We're going out with a bang with a massive NBA power pole. Before we dive into the teams, and we're going to go backwards from 30 to one, we're going to break it down in some tiers. Big picture thought on this NBA season. This is the first time ever we've had four generations

going at the same time. So what does that mean? Well, if you go the guys from the 2000s, which I would call the Kobe generation, those are all the guys, their draft had to be in the 2000s. So you got LeBron, who's the oldest guy in the league, which is amazing. Curry, KD, Harden, Butler, Russ, CP3, they all belong to some sort of generation. I guess the tie would be Kobe, right? They competed against him at least when he was still really good. Maybe some of them were on the dream team.

And normally that would be this generation that had already been retired, but now with the longevity and the way that we're more of an offense league, all this stuff, the older guys can just keep going. So we have those guys. Then we have the 2010 to 2014, the international generation. All those guys came in during those drafts. Joker, Embiid, Giannis, Dame, Kawhi, PG, AD, Kyrie. They all feel like collectively part of something. It's like LeBron's already been in the league. They're coming in. They're aware of him. He's the guy. The three-point shooting's starting to come in in a real way. These guys, they have length, except for Dame, and I guess except for Kyrie, shooting, playmaking. It's just this new kind of type of basketball that you can kind of really feel by, I would say, 2015, 16 range combined with the old

guys. But then you have the social media generation coming in 2015 and 2019. This is SGA, Luca, Tatum, Booker, Bam, Mitchell, Brunson, Jalen, Murray, Towns. All these guys feel like they all belong together too, and they're not part of the previous generation. And you think of these guys, now it's a little more heliocentric. Most of these guys are now ascending into being some of the best players in the league. But then we have this other generation that's coming, this space and pace generation, all guys that were rookies in 2020 or later, Jha, Halliburton, Edwards, Chet, Wemby, Palo, Shangoon, Maxie, Franz. This is the most good players we've ever had.

And I think that's why as we get closer to the playoffs, this is why the season's been so much fun. This is why there's been so much variance. You can watch two teams play and then two weeks later, it's a completely different game. And just in general, I don't know where this league is going from a talent standpoint, but this is the most talent I feel like it's ever had. I always felt like 1993 was the most talent. But when you talk about those Kobe generation guys and how LeBron and Curry and KD and even Harden and Butler, those guys are still primetime dudes that are going to affect the title race. All four of these generation classes, basically, all might be in the final four in the playoffs. Even if you go to the space and pace guys, Edwards, Chet, those guys might be in the Western finals going against each other.

And this is the newest possible generation. So I look back to the, I don't know,, the 93 season where is MJ the last year before baseball, when we were really loaded then. And the young guys were like, it was like mourning at LJ and Charlotte. We had Shaq kind of feeling it out on Orlando, but it seemed really far away and inconceivable that those guys would actually be in the title picture. The space and pace generation, they're already in. And I read this in John Schumann's column yesterday. He does a great power rankings that you should read on nba.com every week. He said last year, the Kings scored 118.6 points per 100 possessions. That was the highest mark we'd ever had in the history of the NBA. It's a big deal. Now we have five teams that are doing better than that. So you look at

all the offense and this goes back to what Steve Kerr said the other day when he was complaining about Jokic, where if we can't figure out how to play defense against these guys, this is just what the league is going to look like. The guys are getting smarter and smarter, getting people in foul trouble. The points are going to keep going up, But this might be inevitable. Like all those guys I listed for the most part are pretty, pretty, pretty great offensive players down the line. Even somebody like Brunson. Like that social media generation,

SGA, Luca, Tatum, Booker, Bam, Mitchell, Brunson, Jalen Brown, Jamal Murray, Carl Towns. That could be like the Olympic dream team, potentially. I mean, I know we have a couple of foreign guys in there, but you think like Brunson, who was a second round pick, who was kind of an afterthought for the Mavs. They let him go,

which is one of the dumbest decisions the last 15 years. And Brunson now, I was on a text card the other day trying to figure out who he is offensively. And we literally couldn't figure out. It was like Earl Monroe crossed with John Lucas, a guy none of you have probably ever heard of. He was the number one pick in 1976. He was an awesome crafty point guard who had a ton of cocaine problems. But Brunson's kind of an afterthought offensively because there's so

many crazy things happening this year. And if you took this Brunson season and you moved it back 20 years, he would be first team all NBA. So I don't know where we're going with the talent, but I know that it's made the power poles harder than ever to figure out. We're going to dive into it now. First group, the drags. I mean, Detroit has to be first. We covered them on Thursday's pod. They lost their 27th straight. Cade was exceptional against Brooklyn, trying to fight off the 27th loss. And yet, they come out of a timeout. They're down five, 38 seconds left, and somehow design a play for an Alec Burks contested three. And Cade was like flames were shooting out of his head and his ass at that point. So maybe this is a little

more Monty Williams than we're realizing. They're also trying to figure out, they can't play Jaden Ivey and Sarah Thompson at the same time because neither of them can shoot. They have some fundamental stuff. I actually feel like they're going to start playing better now that Bogdanovich is back. Anyway, they're 2-28 and they've lost 27 straight.

Yikes. Number 29, San Antonio. Number 28, Washington. And number 27, Charlotte. Those are our bottom four. All of them have net ratings of minus 10 or worse. The funny thing is the Wizards will probably get the number one pick this year because it's a bad draft year. That's classic Wizards. That's how it goes for them. Purvis Ellison, John Wall. You can always count on them to grab the number one pick when nobody really wants it. Charlotte's in a weird situation where they need to rebuild around LaMelo and Brandon Miller, who I really like, and probably Mark Williams. Everybody else should be available. They got Rozier at a $22 million expiring,

not expiring for the next couple of years, but a good price in Hayward as an expiring. They need a desperate contender who doesn't have a lot of cap space and a lot of room to say, fuck it. And trade for three months of miles bridges and take the heat from the press and the fans locally for a week before, as always, what happens with sports. As soon as the team starts doing better, everybody kind of looks the other way. If they can get anything from Miles Bridges, that's a win for them. And then if they can package that Rozier Hayward thing for something, but this should be

the last reboot for them, get one more lottery pick, and they kind of know who their foundation is. Washington isn't as aware. San Antonio though, I wanted to go over this quickly. So they're four and25, which I just feel like is completely unacceptable considering where they were heading into the summer and considering how talented Wemby is, right? Chet's probably going to win the rookie of the year because he's on a good team impacting every single game. I don't know if you saw the OKC game last night, but Chet was unbelievable in that game, especially protecting the rim. And they just demolished the Knicks in the second half. And Chet was unbelievable in that game, especially protecting the rim.

They just demolished the Knicks in the second half, and Chet was the biggest reason. I'm just telling you now, I'm voting for Chet for Rookie of the Year. I don't care what Wemby's stats are going to be. If OKC is a top three team in the West and Chet stays healthy, that matters. Sorry, Wemby. But if you go back

and you look at all the moves for the last three years this reminds me a little bit of the Patriots where people think the Patriots are the smart sophisticated team and Belichick I guess maybe they don't think it as much anymore but they thought it for a while but the Pats fans were like man

we keep effing up these drafts and wait why did we do this and wait why did we and then all of a sudden man, we keep effing up these drafts. And wait, why did we do this? And wait, why did we? And then all of a sudden, right around last year, I think people quickly realized, is this Belichick thing as good as it used to be?

And we had our moment. And it doesn't feel like the Spurs have totally had their moment with Popovich yet, at least the fans. I think the fans are starting to kind of look at each other and go, wait a second, what's going on here? But if you just go backwards, 2020, they took Devin Vassell, who I like, one spot over Hal Burton. Defensible because they had Murray and Derek White at the time, but looking back, a disaster. They traded Derek White for basically Romeo Langford and an expiring and a late first round pick, which turned out to be Blake Wesley, and a 2028 pick swap with the Celtics.

And if you look back at that trade now, that trade is a disaster for them. That's a flat out disaster. Derek White's probably an all-star and you could make a Casey's the second most valuable Celtic and they're the best team in the league. That trade's terrible. They drafted Primo in 21, 13th, and took him over Shangoon. And you can go back and watch any of the draft stuff we did that year, or even the post-draft pod that I did with Versatile and

KSC. We thought Shangoon should have gone basically from eighth on. Every single pick, we were stunned that nobody took him. The Spurs not taking him is among the worst because nobody even had Primo in the top 20. And then they had to waive him because he had some off-court stuff. That pick is a catastrophe. 2022, they took Sohan over Jalen Williams, which seemed fine at the time.

But Jalen Williams, I think, is just way better than Sohan now. So not great for them. They spent $209 million in the summer of 2023 on extensions for Kelton Johnson and Vassell, who are the second and third best guys on a 4-25 team. Not awesome. They dealt Purtle for a top six protected pick from Toronto.

I don't mind it. Then they did some weird summer 2023 stuff where instead of like, I was saying the whole summer, target Austin Reeves, go get Austin Reeves. They used all their cap space and they got Reggie Bullock, Shetty Osmond, Lamar Stevens,

Campain, and just picked up a bunch of seconds. Could you trade those six seconds for Austin Reeves? I'm pretty sure you can't. And then making Sohan the point guard in 23 was the dumbest thing anyone did this season. So I look big picture

and we talked about this a little last week, but I'm just going to say it again. We were all saying, oh man, Wemby, what a great situation for him to land with the Spurs. Is it?

Was it a great situation? Because this team has not made good moves now for four years. And even playing Sohan at point guard was terrible for Wemby Nyama. So anyway, I'm just flagging that. I wonder, is that a possible open job to run that team? It's certainly a job you'd want. How much kind of say and swagger behind the scenes is Wimbinyama going to have?

We've never seen somebody say, I'm out of my rookie contract, I'll be a free agent. I'm not saying he's going to do that, but I think he probably has more stature and sway than any rookie that's come into the league since LeBron. So they got to figure this shit out because their team sucks. And it's kind of inexcusable

when you consider the picks and the assets they had. The only trade that is really worked out for them is that Murray trade where they got three firsts in a swap from Atlanta. So that's their big win. Next category, the trade machine mercenaries. Portland, number 26 8 and 21 right now

I kind of like watching them Simons came back he's playing well they have Simons they have Sharp Jeremy Grant Brogdon when he's playing Scoot coming off the bench

Aiton they have a couple good rookies that you know like role player rookies. It seems like the big move for them. How fast can they trade Brogdon? How fast can they trade Jeremy Grant? Can they potentially package those guys

together for Lakers, Philly? Philly is the team. We'll get to them later, but Philly is the sleeping giant for Fitz Brogdon and Grant together. They could give them expirings back. Philly has three firsts to trade, three pick swaps. Keeping an eye on that one because if they could just trade their expirings for Brogdon and Grant, that's a trade you do.

Toronto, number 25, they're 12 and 18, minus 2.2 net rating. They're 28th in three-point shooting and they're 29th in free throw shooting, which is not where you want to be at the end of 2023 in the NBA. Besides last two years, traded a protected first for Thaddeus Young, gave Chris Boucher 35 million, traded a first for Jakob Pertl when nobody even knew if Toronto was necessarily a playoff team or not. Didn't trade Fred VanVleet and then lost him in free agency. Never traded Ananobi, who feels like his value is a little lower than it was a year ago because he's not having a great year. And at some point when there's bad chemistry and the players keep

changing except for two or three, maybe you start looking at those two or three players. They took Grady Dick, one pick ahead of Jordan Hawkins and over Hawkins and my guy Brando Pods. We'll see if that works out, but right now, not awesome. They gave Purtle 78 million. And they're a threat to lose Siakam and Ananobi and Trent this summer. And they're probably a top seven lottery team. I'm going to say this post-Kawaii Raptor stretch hasn't worked out, but five-year grace

period, you win the title. Guess what? The five years are up this summer. And my guess is they're going to gut the team, try to be a lottery team, but who knows? We thought that last year and they traded for Yaka Purtle. Another team that needs to blow up something is Atlanta. They're 12 and 18. They have the fifth offense in the league and the 27th defense. And it's a team that just can't get stops it in the game. Young and Murray, they make this big Murray trade, which Justin Termini on my podcast mentioned last week was kind of the lost terrible trade of the last 10 years because the Hawks, not a lot of Hawks conversations. Nobody has a lot of DeJounte Murray conversations. Young and Murray this season, they're minus 1.8 net rating when they play together.

That's a disaster. Those are your two best guys, and they're minus 1.8 when they play. In 2022-23, it was plus 0.3. Also not good. They're going to have to trade Murray. It's just the reality of the situation, and it's looking like Houston.

Could there be some Jalen Green and a contract and a pick? Would you even give up on Jalen Green yet if you're Houston? Do you feel like you're a little closer

to being potentially a team that could upset somebody in the first round? If you do, you grab Murray. The one I really like is Murray for Jordan Hawkins

Kira Lewis is expiring Larry Nance and two at New Orleans is first that's a good salvage for Atlanta they get Hawkins you put him with Trey Young and if you're New Orleans who we'll get to later you need another ball hand or slash

somebody in the end of these games who can determine who's getting the ball where and what you're doing because you've lost too many close games. I expect Atlanta to trade Murray. When Russo and I did our trade draft, I had Murray as my number one pick. I still think that happens.

But this was my big mistake of the preseason over-unders. I thought Atlanta was going to be good. I thought Quinn Snyder was going to unleash them as maybe this year's Sacramento and just this awesome offensive team that could figure it out. Now, they lost Jalen Johnson, who was basically their third best player,

but it doesn't make sense to me why they're this bad unless you go with the theory that Young and Murray make no sense together, which I think we have enough evidence now. Brooklyn, I have 23 at 15 and 16. This is an awful situation because you can't tank

because you don't have your picks. And it doesn't really make sense to go all in on anybody unless somebody like Devin Booker becomes available. I don't know what Brooklyn does. 22, Utah, who's made a big leap. They're now 13 and 18.

There was some, they should trade Laurie Markkinen. Maybe he's available, Buzz. I have no idea where they would trade him. What they really need to do is trade Jordan Clarkson because they need Colin Sexton and Keontae George to play. Clarkson, 23 million this year. And then it drops next year to $14 and $14.2. So they have that and they have Kelly Olenek at $12.1.

This team can trade dudes for future stuff and stay kind of playing-ish if they really want to. But this is another Philly team. Clarkson and Olenek to Philly is another thing that makes sense if Philly wants to expand their bench. So at some point, we've seen it with OKC Philly is another thing that makes sense if Philly wants to expand their bench. At some point, we've seen it with OKC and I think Utah, the same thing, where you just have too many picks. At some point, you got to cash in and go after somebody.

That's why it never made sense to me why they would trade Markkinen. It seems like they should be going the other way, trying to trade a couple of their spare parts that they know aren't going to be their long-term, but then maybe cashing those picks for somebody who's an impact dude. Next category is what happened. I have two teams here, Indiana, who has just not been the same since the playing tournament. And either they're going to be sellers with Turner and Heald and McConnell or buyers and trying to get somebody like Ananobi or if Paul George ever became available, whoever for Matherin and Walker, their rookie,

but they're 15 and 14 first offensive rating, 28 defensive rating. And it seems like teams are starting to figure out their style a little bit. I, to me, this is a could-go-either-way team. Same thing for Cleveland, who just got annihilated by those injuries with Garland and with Mobley. It makes sense to me for them to trade Mitchell. I think Jared Allen would have a shitload of value if they wanted to move him because multiple teams need a center and have picks to trade for him. So we'll see what happens with them. Works in progress. Chicago, 14 and 18. I think the last time we did this, I with them. Works in progress, Chicago, 14 and 18.

I think the last time we did this, I think I had them in the dregs. This Kobe White evolution, which you could feel, I watched that Celtics-Bulls game where the Celtics destroyed the Bulls in a playing tournament game and the Bulls body language was off. It was Zach Levine's last game that he played for them before he left with his injury. And the next game, I think Chicago played Milwaukee and Kobe White was incredible. And his evolution. So they signed him last summer to a three-year $36 million extension. And in his last 13 games after that Boston blowout loss, he's 23-6-6, 48% field goal, 41% three and 80% free throw. And the eye test, he's just going by dudes. He's setting people up. He's 23, six and six, 48% field goal, 41% three and 80% free throw. And the eye test, he's just going by dudes. He's setting people up. He's brought them a whole new energy. He's made Levine expendable. I think he's killed Levine's trade value. And then

it just makes you think, are there other guys like this? Are there other late bloomer top 10 picks kind of sitting there waiting to be stolen? Because I feel like if Levine never gets hurt, maybe you just steal Kobe White in December and this happens on another team. Here's my list. Jaden Ivey, I want to see him on a different team. He's clearly on the wrong team for 900 reasons. It might not even be good, but we said that about Kobe White. Kaminga has shown some real badass flashes. And even his quotes after games where he's like, they got to unleash me. I need more minutes. This dude is aggro and wants to play. And if I was Toronto, that would be my number one target I'd be going after is Kaminga. Because I actually think he might be a guy if you just put him on a team and let him do his thing.

Killian Hayes, I'd like to say, basically anyone from Detroit, but Killian Hayes. DeAndre Hunter from Atlanta, who you could make a case if you change the scenery with him and put him with two guards that aren't ball dominant. Maybe it's different. And then my favorite one, what happened to Davian Mitchell? He's basically an afterthought on the Kings. I thought he showed some real defensive promise. And to me, he's a change of scenery guy. So those are my Kobe White next possible dudes. Memphis at number 18, they're 10 and 19, but coming on like a freight train, they stole two games from New Orleans, including, it had more to do with New Orleans than Memphis. But now that we can see Ja and Bain and Smart and Triple J all together, it's kind of fun.

Verno might be right. Maybe this team makes the playoffs. 10-19. So now they would have to... There's 53 games left. So they'd have to go 34-19. The way Ja looks, it's doable. Maybe Ja could settle down

on some of the antics after a shot. It'd seem slightly a little more remorseful about everything. I don't know. Just a suggestion. If this team's in a three-point game with three minutes left, you know what's going to happen. They're going to be able to get stops.

Smart's going to do smart stuff, hopefully, and then Ja just going by people. The New Orleans game, he barreled into two guys. Somehow they called a foul, even though it wasn't a foul. Ends up being a jump ball at midcourt. They somehow steal the game in overtime. But I don't want to see this team in a plan if they were the 10 seed. So they might've done enough.

They were six and 19. They might've done enough to get back in the mix. We'll see. The Rockets at 15 and 14. They're three and 10 on the road. I don't love that. They have not figured out who to put in that Jalen Green spot,

especially in crunch time, whether it's Eason, whether you go a little bigger, because it's just, Jalen and Jabari together, they've just, from what I've seen, have been too unreliable at crunch time. If they're going to actually try to be a real playoff team,

and it makes me wonder if they would trade Jalen Green, which I keep mentioning in these pods, but I do feel like I want to, he just needs to go to a bad team and make his mistakes. This team's like a little too good for him for where his development was. Shangoon. So the West centers for the All-Star game

and it's not too early to start thinking about the All-Star game at this point but the West centers, we got Jokic. I think Gobert has to be on it for how good he's been defensively. AD, Shangoon, Chet, and Sabonis. Who gets left out out of those? Sabonis is averaging 19, 12, and 7.

He's shooting 59%. He's definitely not making the all-star team. I'm just telling you now, DeMontis. If I had to rank those, Jokic has to be number one. Gobert, too. AD's played the whole season, and he's been kind of awesome. I think he's three.

Shengun, four. And then Chet makes me feel bad, but I would have Chet fifth. And Sabon is sixth. For all-stars, I had Jokic, LeBron, Luka, Curry, SGA as the starters. And I'm playing Luka forward. People can fuck off. He's not a guard. I don't know if you've ever seen him on a basketball court, but he's like 6'7", 240. If he's a guard, good luck. Bench, Edwards, Fox, Kawhi, Durant, Gobert, and AD. That's 11. So then on the bubble, Booker, Bain, Shingun, Towns,

Chet, Sabonis, and Brandon Ingram, who's averaging like 27 a game. I don't know what we do with that. But I look forward to people pretending that they're really upset if somebody didn't make it. Oh my God, he's been snubbed. Nobody's going to get snubbed this year.

We only have 12 spots. Hate to break it to you. All right, we're taking a break. Coming back, I want to talk about Kevin Durant and Phoenix. We have the NFL regular season wrapping up, but there's still time to get in on the action with FanDuel America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That is 150 bucks in bonus bets. Win or lose. At the tail end

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First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issue does not have much trouble. Bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event,

or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, here's the top 16. We're going to start with the enigmas, and there's only one. There's Phoenix. They're 15 and 15. They had a three and eight swoon. They dropped from fifth offensive rate into 16th. There had been some rumblings for the last two

weeks that Durant was unhappy. You could see it in the body language. He had a quote about, I think it was after Brunson lit them up. He had this quote that I think I talked about in the body language. He had a quote about, I think it was after Brunson lit them up. He had this quote that I think I talked about in the podcast. Maybe I didn't, but it was something about, man, you got to really appreciate how the Knicks really revolved the offense around Jalen Brunson and just put him in spots to succeed. And it was like, hmm, that felt passive aggressive. And there were whispers and there were rumors. And I was going to talk about it actually on this podcast. And then Woj, of course, I should have guessed on the Woj Christmas Bomb.

It was a Kevin Durant. He's not happy with how it's going. Here's the thing, Kevin Durant. You have to make this work in Phoenix. You can't, you have no more outs. I know technically you have more outs because it's the Platterman era and everybody can switch teams. I'm not killing Kevin Durant.

I am not going to criticize him. I'm not saying anything other than you have no outs. You have to make this work. This is the equipment of your buddy who got married for the fourth time and this time didn't sign a prenup. And if it doesn't work out this time, he loses all his money. What KD loses in this, if this Phoenix thing doesn't work out now, is his legacy changes. And you could say he doesn't care. I think he does. I really do.

I think he cares about his place in the history of the league. I know he does the whole thing about, I'm just out there. I just want a ball. I just want a hoop. I just don't believe it. I think he cares how he measures against LeBron, how he measures against the best players in the league.

I think he's online too much. I think he's just too aware and too hypercritical of people who are critical of him. And he has to make this work because if you go backwards, 2016, he leaves OKC. I defended it then, I'll defend it now. He was there for eight years, or nine years. He needed a new challenge. They couldn't get over the hump and didn't really want to play with Westbrook anymore. Can you blame him? Wanted a new city, goes to Golden State, works out great. Finals MVP two years in a row. 2018-19 range, he's starting to realize I can't win here even

though I'm winning. It's always going to be Curry's team. I'm always going to be looked at as I joined somebody else's team. This goes back to my point that he does care about his legacy because he does. Because if he just cared about winning only and just being in a great situation, this is a guy that was with Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson, and he left. So why did he leave? Because he wanted his own team. He wanted to prove that he could do it as the guy and win the finals as the guy on his own team.

So he makes the mistake of hitching his wagon to Kyrie, goes to Brooklyn, rehabs from an Achilles for a year, figures out this James Harden trade that, you know, the karma, whatever happens, and all of a sudden, Harden, Kyrie, and KD are on the same team. And it's fantastic. And then it goes sideways. And Harden is hurt. Kyrie's hurt.

KD still almost brings them, almost brings them past Milwaukee. Foot on the line. It's six inches. But he's playing the best he's ever played at that point it's a heroic performance and it comes down at six inches doesn't go his way you know what happens after that

Kyrie Harden thing goes sideways summer 22 this is his first kind of mistake he's mad about that they traded Harden for Ben Simmons and some picks. Probably got a look under the hood with Ben Simmons. Wasn't crazy about that one. Maybe how they handled the Kyrie COVID stuff.

He demands a trade that summer. And guess what? They kind of stare him down. Comes back. Plays great again. Okay. We've settled it down. Ky back. Plays great again. Okay. We've settled it down. Kyrie's playing well.

KD's playing well. This is going okay. KD, Kyrie asked for, he wants out. And KD's like, well, I want out too then.

It's a little less defensible, but I'm going to give it like a half defensible. Because if Kyrie's leaving and he doesn't want to waste the rest of his career in Brooklyn and he has a chance to go to Phoenix and play with Booker and Chris Paul and Aiton and a team that won 65 games a year before in a city that is dying for a finals team, great. Well, what happens? They put Bridges and Cam in a bunch of picks and swaps in the KD trade. Now they have a lot less room. Now you're all in basically. Well, not necessarily

because in the summer of 23, after they lose to Denver and the series, by the way, was not that close. They trade Aiton and they trade Chris Paul and they trade basically all their seconds and some other stuff for Bradley Beal. And I just can't imagine KD didn't think this was a good idea. I just don't think they would trade for Bradley Beal if KD was like, please don't do this. Well, what happens? Bradley Beal has been hurt three times. Like, oh, who could have predicted that?

He's hurt every year. And then KD doesn't like the fact that, I'm guessing, they're relying on him for rim protection. He's the best defensive forward on the team. He has to play 35, 36 minutes a game when he's in his mid-30s and has had multiple major injuries and is probably looking big picture like, I'm probably going to get hurt soon if I have to keep playing at this pace

and is looking around at all the moves they made and he's like, man, this sucks. And you could feel it on the court where he's like, God, I'm in another bad situation. How do I do this? Well, one of the reasons you're not a great situation is your new team traded all this shit to get you. So you're doing this 2011 heat model,

which we saw with the 2011 Heat didn't work. It doesn't work when you have three guys plus Udonis Haslam and keep your fingers crossed with Mike Miller and then nobody else. I think he's got to suck it up and figure out how to make it work. Now, if you watched last night, it was a fascinating KD game. He had 16 assists, 27 points. He basically was this galvanizing force. He was like the best version of KD. And I thought he made a statement. And here's another statement. I have him 16th in my Pantheon. He's the last guy. He's the best scoring forward ever. Two finals MVPs, 2014 MVP, six first team all-NBAs. For his career, he's 50, 39, 89 percentages. He's almost a 50, 40, 90 guy, which seems inconceivable, but that's true. He scored almost 28K points. Career points per game,

he's sixth all time, 27.3. Only eight guys total have averaged 27 points a game or more. Four retired, Wilt, MJ, Elgin West, then KD, Luka, Embiid, and LeBron. It's eight ever in the history of the league. For his career, he's averaging 27, seven rebounds, 4.4 assists. LeBron's averaging 27 8 rebounds 7 assists so LeBron is the second greatest player of all time and KD's stats are really close to his this is all stuff KD

he can say he doesn't think about this stuff I promise you he does I promise you he measures himself against LeBron he has two titles, LeBron has four his stats are pretty close he hasn't been as durable but he's a little closer to LeBron. He has two titles. LeBron has four. His stats are pretty close. He hasn't been as durable, but he's a little closer to LeBron, at least statistically, than I think people realize. He has to make the Phoenix thing work because if you go through the trades, OKC, I don't see it. The Knicks, they care too much about their culture and whatever they built. I don't think they'd want

a guy who's been unhappy in multiple situations. New Orleans, he'd never go. Miami, I don't see it. It's really only Golden State. Could he go back to Golden State if this got super unhappy and it becomes like the Dallas episode when Bobby Ewing shows up in the shower and he'd been dead for four years? Draymond, Wiggins, Kaminga, Moody, 26-28 first and a 29 pick swap for KD. On paper, it's a salvage for Phoenix. I just, Matt Ishby just got this team. He made a big deal about, we have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker

and we're good. We have two of the best 12 players in the league. This is going to work. And I think the owner is going to be too stubborn to ever, ever abandon ship with KD after less than a year. So KD, you're stuck in Phoenix. You're one of the best 16 players of all time. Make it work, man.

Make it work. It's more at stake for you this year than just the season and where you land in the playoffs. Make this work. It's more at stake for you this year than just the season and where you land in the playoffs. Make this work. Don't be the guy that we look back 25 years from now and say, KD, awesome player, but man, what a handful. Because I think you're better than that. Next team. I'm going to call this the maybe one move away. The New York Knicks, 17 and 13. We've found out in a couple of games recently that they do not have the size or the firepower to hang with certain teams without Mitchell Robinson. Their three biggest targets were Embiid and Giannis, no chance. Towns, no chance because Minnesota's playing well. And that moves you into the Murray and Zion and Nobi group, I still don't

think it makes that much of a difference. If I were the next, I would just wait. Wait until Mitchell. Wait for one of these big dudes. Grind it through. You got a five seed. Who knows in February? 14, New Orleans. 17 and 14. They're 0 and 6 in games, three points or less. During clutch minutes, I read this in The Athletic, third worst offensive rating, worst turnover percentage, tied for worst in free throw percentage. Not good. Can you blame Willie Green? Can you blame the fact that maybe McCollum's not a guy that you want or Ingram, either of those guys deciding games? Or do you look at Zion, whose points have gone like this the last three years. 27, didn't play. 26, 22.3.

That's over the last three seasons plus this one. Field goal percentage. 61 and 21, didn't play. 60.8, 57.5. Free throw attempts. 8.7, didn't play. 8.6, 7.2. Free throw percentage, 69.8, didn't play, 71.4, 65%. Rebounds, 7.2, didn't play, 7.0, 6.1. Why are you going backwards, Zion? You're not even in your mid-20s yet. How is this the career arc? We're going to get to Luka in a second.

This is the biggest issue with this team. Whatever they do in a trade, they could trade for DeJounte Murray. They have a million picks. But if they can't figure out what Zion is, and it doesn't seem like he can figure it out either, I'm just not going to take them seriously despite the amount of talent they have. Golden State, 15 and 15. I have them as the 13th team, which might surprise you,

but I do my rankings in order of who I think has a chance to make the finals. Golden State was 4-9 in the last 13 Draymond games. And since he went away, they doubled down on Brando Pods. They doubled down on Jackson Murray, who I just found out was Dale Davis' son five days ago, made me like him even more. He was awesome against the Celtics. They're starting to find something. They still have one of the best players alive in Curry. They have a really good coach. They have an infrastructure and the rookies

have given them juice and they have a lot of trade assets. They could trade Wiggins or Kaminga, at least to throw in a salary. Kaminga has more value. They have Draymond if they want. They have CPs expiring. They could get crazy and trade Clay. They won't. They have Moody. Targets. DeJounte Murray makes a ton of sense for them. Ananobi, he makes a ton of sense. Siakam, can't shoot threes, but got to at least kick the tires on it. Jeremy Grant. Jeremy Grant and Malcolm Brogdon together. Kyle Kuzma.

Hmm. Jared Allen. And my favorite, Austin Reeves. Because next couple weeks you could conceivably make a Draymond Green for Austin Reeves trade.

The Lakers, let's say they're around 500. They talked themselves into that. Does Golden State have to throw in maybe Moody to make that work? Do they have to add other contracts? I just like the trade. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not reporting it.

But I just like the theory. In theory, I don't think Golden State needs Draymond. I think they should trade him. And I think it's time for them to trade him. I didn't feel that way a couple weeks ago because I thought he was too important to Curry offensively. But I actually think they should trade him at this point and just let him start fresh, let them start fresh.

But Draymond for Reeves, it's pretty interesting. They'd probably have to throw in something else, which tells you what's happened to Draymond this season. Number 12, Sacramento. They're 17-12. They got killed in the last five weeks by Minnesota, Boston, Clippers twice, Pelicans twice. It's not great.

It's what we thought would happen this season, where last season there was some schedule stuff. There was some conference stuff that shifted their way. And this year the league's risen and they've kind of stayed the same. With that said, let's give them credit for Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey. Like officially, because I thought they were stupid when they did it. Most of the draft people did. Everybody thought, oh my God, they're kings in and up again.

But man, that was a great, great, great pick for them. Wildcards, number 11, Dallas. And it's only because of Luka they're 18-13 right now their 7th in offensive rating Luka is averaging 33.7 points a game 8.4 rebounds

and 9.2 assists he's shooting 49-38 79% his true shooting is 61.8. His usage is only 35.7.

In comparing that to James Harden's best season, 2019, Harden was 36, 6.6, and 7.5 rebounds. All the shooting percentages were lower except for free throws. True shooting was around the same, but his usage was 40.4. So Luka's 35.7. It just made me think like, what is the best possible Luka season? Because I don't

feel like we're there yet because the shooting percentages will go up a little. So could it be, could he get to 36, nine and nine for a season? Could he get to 37? Could he be a 50, 40, 80 guy? Could he get to 65% true shooting? I mean, the stuff, I don't know if you saw the Sunday game, which I was taping a podcast, but he was so good in that game. I ended up going back and watching it. The level that he's at intellectually as a basketball player is obscene. And he just knows every single play Terminator style, kind of like what LeBron morphed into when he was on Miami of just, I'm just going to solve plays over and over again and figure out what to do. I think he could get to 37 a game.

Because the thing that people forget with him is he's so big that you're kind of screwed no matter who puts him on. You see it again when he's in person. He's just fucking huge. He's built like Rob Gronkowski. And so it basically limits anyone you can put on him. And he's just, it just feels like he's in better shape this year. And I don't know what happens with it, but he turns 25 in February and the history of the NBA says you peak in maybe 20, age 26, 27, 28, somewhere in there, I think he could get to 37, 99, which is absurd.

One last thing on Dallas. So Mark Cuban sold the team, and it was presented as he's selling 75%, but he's going to still keep control of everything, and there's some sort of casino thing down the road. He's not doing it because he needs the money. It's just the opportunity. And that's how it was presented to us. So if you go back and read what Mark Stein reported when the deal was first announced. And Mark Stein is our guy. He's the most wired in guy to the Mavs that we have. And he said, the uncommon structure of the agreement,

this is what he wrote, figures told far greater appeal to Cuban than making a deal at a higher franchise valuation since this deal appears uniquely poised to allow him for the foreseeable future to function with the same hands-on ownership style that he has employed for nearly 24 years. And he sold it for 3.5 billion, which was actually lower than the Sun's, than basically what Ishbia paid for all the Sun stuff, which

was evaluated, I think, for. The reports yesterday, this is from ESPN, Cuban will maintain a 27% stake of the Mavs ownership and serve as the team's alternate governor. He acknowledged there is, quote, no contractual language in the purchase agreement regarding his authority over basketball operations and that ultimately Dumont would have, quote, final say as the team's governor. However, Cuban's expectations Dumont is the Dumont's and the Adelson will focus on the

franchise's business interests, which probably include a long-term plan of building an arena that would include a resort hotel and casino. And then it says Cuban does not expect Patrick Dumont to be heavily involved in basketball personnel decisions. My shit detector's going off. One more quote from Cuban.

I know what I'm good at. When I first bought the team, I knew more about the technology and the internet and all the streaming and everything than anybody else in the NBA. And so I had a real advantage there. Now all that 23, 24 years later, that's not the advantage anymore. The advantage is what you can build and wear. And you need to have somebody who's really, really good at that. Patrick and Mary, and they're the best of the world in what they do literally around the world. So you get a world-class partner who can come in and grow

your revenue base. So you're not dependent on the things that you were in the past. That's a huge win. They're not basketball people. I'm not real estate people. That's why I did it. I could have gotten more money selling it to somebody else. This is a great partnership. My shit detector is going off. I don't get it. So Patrick Dumont has final say over the Mavericks, but Mark Cuban's running the basketball. Well, what happens in like nine months if Patrick Dumont's like, you know who I don't really want to hear basketball opinions from? Mark Cuban. What are his credentials?

He never played. He was never a coach. He was never a GM. If not for the Luka Doncic draft pick, you look at the last seven Mavericks years, it's pretty grim. Why do I need this guy? We saw this happen with Philadelphia in 2001. Pat Croce was the president of the Sixers and he had arranged this whole deal with Ed

Snyder where Ed Snyder bought the Sixers and some other stuff. And I always thought Pat Croce, I was even writing about basketball, but I always thought he owned the team, but he didn't. He was just the president. And at some point, Ed Snyder was like, why don't we need this guy? And just got rid of him. What changed with Cuban, he cashed in for a lot of money, but he now is no longer in control of his own destiny with the Mavs. He might say he is, but he's not because somebody else has final say. When you own a team, you have final say. So you can't tell me that this is not different. I think it's weird. I thought Cuban had, why did Cuban need the money? I don't get it. Let's go to number 10, Orlando.

18 and 12. Clippers are 18 and 12. And the Lakers are 16 and 15. I have them at number eight. And out of those three teams, the Clippers are done making moves. They just need their guys to stay healthy. Orlando has to decide whether they want to make a mini run or not. whether they want to make a run at DeJounte Murray or in an OB. And the Lakers clearly do not like their team and are dying for somebody to take D'Angelo Russell. I don't even know why Chicago would take him in a Levine trade,

by the way. Maybe they end up with Malcolm Brogdon. I don't know what they do, but they clearly don't like the team. There's a Kyrie possible lingering over there. So is there Draymond possibly lingering over this, but we'll see. All right. Top seven, the veterans, Milwaukee, 22 and eight. They're giving up five points a game in their net rating more than Boston. I still hate the defense. They're 20th overall, but the big thing for them is Middleton starting to look like Chris Middleton again. He's basically 19 and six this month, 40% from three. Just looks like he's moving better even than when I saw him in Vegas a couple of weeks ago. So I want to see how that goes because if he starts looking like Middleton again, I might have to increase my ceiling on that team.

I still don't think they can beat the Celtics. Miami have a number six. They're 18 and 12. Butler's missed seven games. Bam's missed 10 and Hero's missed 18. They're the sleeping giant for a Mitchell trade or the Brogdon-Grant combo trade, which cannot happen until January 14th.

That's when Grant got traded. They could figure out how to turn Tyler Harrow and Duncan Robinson and a couple of picks into Brogdon and Grant. I just know that that team's going to be waiting for the Celtics at some point. Round two, round three. We're going to have to go through them. I'm already nervous. 2023 redraft.

Jaquez is third or fourth? I mean, Wemby one. I think Brandon Miller's two. Hawkeyes is three. Kaysan Wallace is fourth. And then after that, we can have 40 arguments, but that's clearly the top four. And I don't know what the two, three, four in order is, but the Hawkeyes thing is unreal. It makes me so mad. I can't believe they did it again. They landed Bam 13th, Hero 14th, and Hawkeyes 18th. I hate their guts. Number five, the not totally a sleeper, Oklahoma City. They're 19-9. I'm officially calling SGA and Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren a big three. I don't know if you saw the Knicks game last night, but holy shit.

I don't even know what this team needs, but they're clearly going to win 50-plus games. Big victory lap for me. I had an up-and-down year with predictions and going all in on stuff. I think I told you the Pats were going to make the playoffs I think I told you Tennessee was going to win the AFC South I think I told you Atlanta was going to win 45 games in the NBA

the Hawks but I've had some good ones too this was my best one go back I was telling you adamantly that OKC was going to be a 50 win team that this is what the history of the league said and and it's happening. SGA is out of his mind. He is still, to me, a legitimate MVP candidate. But when you think SGA, Jalen Williams, and Chet, you have those three. You have Wallace, you have Dort, you have Giddey. See what happens with them over the next couple of months.

You have the other Jalen Williams, you have Isaiah Joe, Wiggins, and Williams. What do they need? They need one more big guy, which we keep saying. Can't they overpay for Jared Allen? Just go all in. Hey, Cleveland, the Mitchell trade didn't totally work out for you. Give us Jared Allen. We'll take them. We have all of our firsts. We have these Clipper firsts. We have Houston firsts. You name it. Let's talk first. And we have contracts andipper firsts. We have Houston firsts. You name it. Let's talk first. And we have contracts and we'll make this nice and easy for you. You can trade Jared Allen to us. Trade Mitchell to somebody.

Just do the complete reboot with Mobley and Garland and do your thing. Jared Allen is the guy for them. If they get Jared Allen, I think they can make the finals. I really do. Mark it down. The contenders, top four. Minnesota, 22 and seven. Not much has changed with them except for, I don't know if you by SGA and Fox and Booker. There's a

scenario where if it's the wrong guard in the playoff series, that wrong guard could expose them a little bit. I'm not too worried about it, but I'm flagging it. Philadelphia, 21-9. As I mentioned earlier, they have so much trade stuff. This is like Daryl Morey's wet dream team

where he has two stars and just a shitload of assets to trade for stuff. They got to improve their wings. Nick Batum, I know all the ratings for him. All the advanced stats are just bonkers. I've seen it too many times with you, Nick Batum. I don't trust you. In a big game, in a big playoff game, when you're in the corner, I do not think you're going to make that shot with

two minutes left with the crowd yelling down one. I think you're missing it. They need one more wing. This Embiid season though, just quickly, holy shit. So he's averaging 35 points a game. I think he's the best offensive center since Kareem in 1972. Kareem in 72, 34.8 the podcast, and this is the most important Embiid point. And this is why he has a case for being the best offensive scoring center that we've seen since Will Chamberlain. He makes his fucking free throws. He's at 89.3% for his free throws this year. He's making 10.3 free throws a game out of 11.6 attempts. Shaq in 2000, Shaq averaged 29.7 points a game in his MVP season in 2000 Embiid was 35 points a game

Shack was 57% from field goals, Embiid's 55 hmm, what's the difference Shack made 5.5 out of 10.4 free throws a game Embiid makes almost 5 more free throws a game which is exactly the difference in their points

per game. And on top of it, you can't foul him at the end of games. So I have Shaq, I don't know, he's like 12th or 13th in my Pantheon. At least this version of Embiid right now is just a better player than Shaq. He is. Because Shaq was a 44 minute overpowering guy and in the playoffs against the wrong team, whatever. But those last four minutes, that's when Kobe was so important and you know all that stuff. But Shaq's free throw shooting was an absolute unequivocal liability for them. And Embiid's free throw shooting is a legitimate strength for the Sixers. So, Jesus, 35 points a game and shooting almost 90% from three

and you're seven foot two. Unbelievable. The favorites, I still have Denver number two and I will not take them out of number two until something happens to Jokic. They won the title last year. They know who they are. I'm still betting on their infrastructure.

Boston's number one. Boston with Porzingis is going to win the title if he stays healthy. I'm just telling you now, I have no idea if he's going to stay healthy. But if they get their six guys all healthy, I think they're going to win the title. Porzingis, what are the odds he can play 10 straight weeks?

I don't know. They're being super careful. They know how good they are. They rested him in that Clipper game on Saturday because for no other reason than why we're going to be the one seed or the two seed. It doesn't really matter. We need Porzingis for nine weeks. Can we get nine weeks out of him? Go look at their offensive ratings for some of their games. They had two of the best offensive rating games in the history of the franchise just on this West Coast trip.

They should have gone 4-0. I got to give credit to second row Joe. He's done a pretty good job. This team, I still don't love how they fire up the threes, but when you see it in person with Porzingis, it becomes one of those, how do you stop this team teams? And the key is going to be, you know, Tatum against defensive forwards that can actually defend him, which the Lakers had Jared Vanderbilt, and he really had to work on Jared Vanderbilt. And sometimes with Tatum, it's like,

maybe you're not the matchup tonight. Go to the other matchups, whether he can do that, put in the mob more in Derek White's hands. But just in general, this Boston team is the single most talented team that they've had since the mid-80s teams. I think it's more talented than the 2008 team. For where the league is now and everything we covered at the top, the three-point shooting and just the need to have offensive firepower and length and switchability at all times, it's ridiculous. And then the way White and Holiday are starting to emerge as a tandem, where you have two guards that can get three to four blocks and steals combined a game. The way White's playing now that Marcus is gone,

this team, it just looks awesome for them. And yet I have no idea if they're going to be there in May and June because we just don't know with Porzingis, without Horford. We'll see. It's a we'll see, but right now they're the clear number one. And then last but not least, Adam Silver, we always give him a little

grade at the end of these power polls. I saw what he was doing in December where Vegas and Seattle get into expansion teams. Just so you guys know, I've been telling you this for two, three years. I was telling LeBron's getting the Vegas team, which he is. I don't know what the group is going to be with him now because I think now that the price is getting more expensive, I think it might be more of an auction now with LeBron running the team. Maybe it's not Fenway Sports Group. It's going to be whatever rich guy gives him the best deal. But it's going to be Vegas and Seattle. And what's interesting is Adam in December,

he's basically admitting they're going to expand. But he's like, Mexico City would be nice. Vancouver maybe. He started throwing out a couple other cities. It's not definitely Vegas and Seattle yet. Just trying to drive the price up for those two cities because it's going to be Vegas and Seattle. I like what you did. It was a little gangster-y, Adam Silver. It's like, it might be Vancouver. The Seattle guy's like, wait, what? I thought this was done. I think they're going to get $9 billion combined for those two teams, whether it's four and a half each or five for Seattle, four for Vegas. And it's going to be a $300 million check

for every single NBA owner that they do not have to share with the players. So Adam Silver, thumbs up. League's looking great. Let's take a break and we'll talk football after this. After decades of shaky hands caused by debilitating tremors, Sunnybrook was the only hospital in Canada who could provide Andy with something special. Three neurosurgeons, two scientists, one movement disorders coordinator, 58 answered questions, two focused ultrasound procedures,

one specially developed helmet, thousands of high intensity focused ultrasound waves, zero incisions. And that very same day, two steady hands. From innovation to action, Sunnybrook is special. Learn more at sunnybrook.ca slash special. All right, taping this part of the podcast. It's close to 11 o'clock. PT, these guys are normally doing

the Friday Ringer Gambling Show, but we stole them. They're doing this show instead. Joe House, my longtime buddy, and Warren Sharp, who is today wearing the Sleeping with the Enemy Guys mustache. I don't know if you guys have seen that movie. Very similar look, Sharp, to the guy who Laura escapes from. Laura! You got to check it out. I am going to read you the teams that made the 2022 playoffs and then the teams that are going to make the 2023 playoffs. Actually, I'm not going to read all the names, but only two teams that made last year's playoffs are out for this year's playoffs.

The Chargers and the Giants. Sharp, when I go into every season, I always want to take out seven from the yeargers and the Giants. Sharp, when I go into every season, I always want to take out seven from the year before and add seven new ones. This year, we only have the Chargers, Giants. Cincy, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay are all maybes, but all of them potentially could make it, or at least four of the five. Why did the NFL go chalk this year, in your opinion? What happened happened a lot of quarterback injuries um we did not see in in my opinion the the teams that were the most elite with the very best

quarterbacks we did not see those quarterbacks play up to their full potential um that doesn't necessarily mean that they dropped out but it's it's pretty much why like the Buffalo Bills are skating in uh by the skin of their teeth as of right now. We'll see what ends up happening. But the Eagles haven't been getting the same level of quarterback play. Tua hasn't been quite as good. Josh Allen hasn't been as good. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes hasn't been as good.

But they've at least been healthy and they've been playing. And these other teams that are fringe teams just haven't gotten there from a quarterback perspective. The quarterbacks that these guys made moves for, like the Jets, like the Broncos, that we were thinking might take a next step and develop somebody, those teams never got a chance to get those quarterbacks developed, whether it was because their quarterbacks were playing terribly in Russell Wilson's case, or there was injuries in the New York Jets case. And so I think it's just a lot of the middling teams that we're banking on. Some changed this season, primarily with the quarterback position. Those things just did not come to fruition. Except for Cleveland,

who started four quarterbacks and are one of our two new 2023 playoff teams house. The other is Detroit. And then we have Indy, Houston, Pittsburgh, Rams, Atlanta, and New Orleans as maybes. Another interesting thing of how we talk all spring and summer about these NFL things, the new coach theory house. We might not have a new coach playoff team,

which is really upsetting. It was supposed to be Sean Payton, and yet D'Amico Ryans might be our guy. Like, we still have hope for him. But what's your theory on what happened this year? Yeah, it's either Shane Steichen or D'Amico Ryans, right? Oh, yeah, Shane Steichen. That's the other one.

The new coach guys. But I'm not sure whether it was the symptom or or the cause but sharp did a long deep dive kind of mid-season into scoring being weighed down and there's a handful of factors that contributed to that but i think that that had a sort of great equalizing effect like across the board unders were occurring at an unprecedented rate through the first eight weeks of the season. And sure that we saw, you know, improved defensive play. The Cleveland Browns, the way they came out of the box, the way that the Chiefs were playing defensively. But I think, you know, that combination plus the way and Sharp did this in his article, talked a little bit about the way the refs were calling the games.

And, you know, there was a depressive effect on scoring across the board. So offenses that we might have otherwise anticipated getting off and getting roaring, that never really happened. I mean, the only real offensive juggernauts of this season, San Francisco and Dallas at home and the Ravens.

Those are the only three teams that I would say really impressive offensively. And Miami at home, too, I would throw in. A little bit of mixed results, though. They were on fire at the beginning of the season, and then they came off the bye and went up against the Raiders and damn near lost that Raiders game. Sharp, can you summarize that referee article in 25 seconds? Came off the bye and went up against the Raiders and damn near lost that Raiders game. Sure. Can you summarize that referee article in 25 seconds?

Basically, early on the season, they were calling at the line of scrimmage a lot of things against the offenses that they used to just call neutral or in favor of the offenses. They were calling more. All these offensive offsides, false starts were up, offensive holding was up dramatically. And then what they were calling a lot of was these ineligible man downfield penalties. All of these things were really neutralizing and neutering scoring. Defenses were getting off the snap a little bit quicker. The pressure rates were up in the NFL. And so there was a combination of, oh, well, the big picture is the way defenses are playing a little bit quicker. The pressure rates were up in the NFL. And so there was a combination of, oh, well, the big picture is the way defenses are playing a little bit differently.

But the reality was the refs ended up having a big part of this. And I think some of these things were scaled down after that article. I'm going to do a recap over the second half of the season, like post article, but ineligible main downfield has not been called at anywhere close to the rate it was being called prior to me publishing that article. And we have seen scoring pick up. I'm not saying it was just directly as a result of that, but we have seen things getting back on track,

which is fortunate, but that also plays into the point that you guys were making, which is that all these teams were clustered closer together, which made the last several weeks of the playoff run and who's going to get into the postseason and whatnot a little bit more compelling because all these teams were just middling teams with similar records and many of them were still alive in large part because scoring was down. So you didn't need to score 30 points to win games this year, right? And so you were seeing these bad teams that were only putting up 18 points. They were winning more games this year than they had in years past. And so it was

allowing these teams to stay closer, longer into the depth of the schedule here. It's like my stupid team. House, do you think Sharp made money this year? As you know, Sharp's posted a bet from time to time. It feels like he had a good year. You know what Warren Sharp did this year that was an innovation for him? He got super deep in the props market, and he really got some great insights into anticipated offensive performances, and he just caught a heater.

I mean, the props, the Sharp props have been one of my favorite things to track. The Gus Edwards last week, Gus Edwards was at one and a half, like, receptions in some minuscule yards. Half a reception, 2.5 yards. See, see, see? And he had one catch that went for 35 or 40 yards. Wow. Winner! Winner!

Parlay that son of a bitch. Yeah, that's the kind of season it's been for the sharp. Well, you gave me the James Cook one, which when I hit the 11-1 parlay, you were like, James Cook, just figure out a James Cook bet. So what made you wait until 23 to dive into the player prop sharp? Well, I've just been looking to spend a little bit more energy just looking for other derivative markets to bet into. And I found some angles in the prop market that I don't think were being accounted for without revealing too much here. But I do want to share some of my favorite props this week

since House and I aren't doing the ring or gambling show later. There are some angles that I've been kind of looking to capitalize on with regard to worst quarterbacks in the league. And what do these bad quarterbacks tend to do a little bit more of? And so that's part of the way that I've been betting some of these things this year. That's been a little bit different than potentially in years past. But this has been my most profitable betting season that I've ever had. From an NFL perspective, it's been the best season that I've had. So I've been giving house to house. Are you

on my playoff stuff, first of all? Are you getting the goals? I'm working on it. I'm not quite there yet. Simmons, I tell you what, I tell him to connect with my guy. I'll give him all my stuff for free. Then I ask him, did you take this? Did you take that? And he constantly is not getting these bets in properly. I don't understand. But we're 4-0 in bowls right now. I don't understand why you haven't been on board for these things. But first of all-

Can I explain why House didn't get on board? Because it's the holidays and House is just in a food coma for like 10 days. There's just too much food. It's not just food. There's other stuff going on. Yeah, there's alcohol. There's Bloody Marys. Yeah, I need some of that later today for these games tonight.

But no, I can go through and give you a few. But I will say one gift to everybody else. Just go to sharp.football and you can get one week free. So I'll give it out to people if you want that. Oh, that is nice, Sharp. Can we talk? Because I want to do these million dollar picks in time for the Thursday game

if we want to mess with the Thursday game. And then we're going to go through a bunch of games so we can hit all different angles and then throw a couple props in at the end. But the Browns, it's up to seven and a half against the Jets. Unclear as we're taping it this time whether Amari Cooper is going to

play or not. But you know, House and I, we're as square as it gets. We see the Browns in a tease spot with their awesome defense against a crappy Jets offense with a bad quarterback. And it just looks like a sheer delight for a tease. Sharp, talk us out of it. Yeah, they are the better team.

But when you have a little bit of weather elements going into play here and you have to think about the way that you should be looking to attack the Jets is on the ground. And I say this as a guy who obviously advocates most teams in general should be passing the ball more. We'll get into when we talk about the Ravens and whether it's a postpartum on the 49ers or previewing the Dolphins game issues with their run defense. But with the Jets, that's how you really want to attack them. But that's not really the way that the Cleveland Browns are built. Their offensive line is bad. Their running backs aren't generating enough in the ground game. And they're attacking through the air deep with Joe Flacco, which has high highs and low lows it could. And you're going up against like the best pass defense that you have played with Joe Flacco. So there's a lot of variance that goes into play with this type of attack on a short week against this good of a defense in the Jets. Two props that I like for this game. I like Trevor Simeon's passing yards under. This is a very

difficult defense that he's going up against. And the Browns are not allowing this type of production to most quarterbacks they play, let alone quarterback of Trevor Simeon's talent. I also think Brees Hall is going to struggle to hit his rushing and receiving prop. He had a monster week against House's commanders last week. It's like 82 and a half at fan who doesn't who doesn't exactly i i don't think he's gonna go off against uh the browns as he did against just the browns run defense yards before contact at home my guy ray seminal and pointing this out to me yesterday like they're like 0.1 yards before contact at home they're just allowing running backs to gain nothing on the ground before they get contacted. A couple chances at explosives.

That's the only consideration here. Brees Hall can break off some of those explosives. And the Browns, although they have a very good consistent run defense, there are times, one-offs, where they're allowing these gashing runs. We saw it with Singletary last week. We'll see it again here, in my opinion, one or two to Brees Hall. It is like the weirdest thing about their season because they're number one in just about everything. And yet every game,

somebody runs for like 45 yards. You can definitely bet the over and longest rush against them with consistency, but they're generally limiting those backs still on the ground. The other interesting thing you can do, Simmons, here, I wouldn't recommend this for million-dollar picks, but just talking about betting on this game. You know those same game parlays where you bet one thing over and another thing that's correlated under, there's an option here for you to do that and really spike your payout. If you bet Trevor Simeon passing yards under, but his passing attempts over at 31 and a half,

because there have been quarterbacks. I want to say, if I pull up my notes here, that for five straight games, quarterbacks, ever since Joe Flacco became the starter, every quarterback that has faced the Browns has thrown 37 plus pass attempts in these games. They're not very productive, but they're passing the ball a lot because they're losing on the scoreboard. So even more so if you like the Browns in this game, that's an

interesting prop to play is his total yards under, but his pass attempts over. House, can I interest you in Trevor Simeon's passing under with the Browns to win the first and second half plus 178? Oh, I like that. I mean, the Browns to win the first half and the game? Yeah, I like that. I mean, the Browns win the first half and the game. Yeah, I understand that. And Trevor Simeon under 175.5 yards. Yeah, sure. I'm in. That's a good one.

Can I just quickly read some stats? This is why I want to put the Browns in a tease. House, you could be the tiebreaker. First downs allowed. Third down conversions allowed, passing yards allowed, yards per play. Browns defense is first in all four of those categories. The Jets are 31st, 32nd, 31st, and 31st. This is about as big of an offense versus a good defense mismatch as we've seen. And I don't know how the Jets are going to move the ball.

It just feels like maybe we even think like Browns to win by 20 plus could be a possibility too. We're spending too long on this game because by Friday it would already have happened. But House, give a quick take. Well, I'm right there with the tease, obviously. I mean, before we sat down to do this, I'll show you my notes. There's the teaser.

It's right there. Who'd you have with it? Who was your other team? Packers. Oh, make the case. Let's hear it. From the dog of one and a half up to seven and a half. You better fire that soon, House. You better finalize that bet soon because

they just announced that it's Jaron Hall starting at quarterback for the Vikings. They benched the Jaron Hall. starting at quarterback for the Vikings. They benched... That's it. They benched... What's the other guy? Jaron Hall's off. No, Nick Mullins. Nick Mullins.

We've missed a point of the season where there's so many bad quarterbacks. Sharp can't even remember which bad quarterback got benched. He was only there for a couple of weeks. Nick, the interception. Yeah, Nick, the interception is out. Jaron Hall.

So that number's going to flip. I mean, the line is cratered. It's dropping lower at some spots now having to pick them. The total that was once at 46 and a half is now down to 44 and a half and 44 at some spots because the market thinks it's a bad move. I mean, when something like this happens and you see the line drop by this many points, point and a half, and then the total drop. The market clearly is saying, we prefer Nick Mullins. We think you're probably, if you're the Vikings now, you're probably going to run the ball more

and pass with a little bit less confidence than you would have with Mullins in there. I have the only line we care about is FanDuel and they have it as Vikings one and a half house. So you can take it to seven and a half if you still like it. We can grab it pretty soon. It'll have to be right this second because when this pod comes up, you know,

later today and into tomorrow, this is where the lines are. We're doing the lines right now. We're doing the lines as they are. The other only other candidate BS is the Saints taking them from two and a half. I'm never, never. No, no. I just wanted to call it to your attention.

That's all. I would honestly, I'd rather pour egg. You can say I didn't either. I won't do it. It's right here. I would rather pour eggnog all over my body and then have my dogs lick it off. That doesn't sound terrible.

No, the Dennis Allen, Derek Carr combo, I'm never putting in the T tease ever again in my entire life. The money parlay, anything. I never want to bet on those guys. What's worse than having Derek Carr when he throws the interception or the tip pick and then does the Derek Carr pointing like it's somebody else? There's nothing worse.

Nothing worse. Dennis Allen just upset on the sidelines. I'm not doing it. It's never Carr's fault. No, never. Mouth breather Dennis Allen. I only had two other possible teasers for that.

If we, the Cowboys-Lions over because you look at the Cowboys offense versus the Lions defense and vice versa and it just feels like

there's going to be points. And then, you know, bringing the Bengals up to plus 13 against this crap KC offense. McKinnon's out.

He's on the IR. Probably not Pacheco. So now we're looking at a lot of Clyde Edwards, Hilaire, and Sharp. Sal and I talked about this on Sunday's game, or after Sunday's games, but I'm just all in on the Chiefs are a wrap. I think it's over. I don't think they have it this year.

They remind me of the 2019 Pats. They just don't have it. They don't have the weapons. The guys aren't open. Lombardi texted me how he watched their all 22 tape. Nobody's open. They single team Kelsey now. They don't even double team them anymore.

And I just, I think this is who they are. Do you, have you seen any signs of life from any of the numbers that make you think differently? Unfortunately, not. The way that you have to have success right now in the NFL is either be great inside of the red zone or be explosive. And the problem is there, or both, ideally,

they are not explosive enough right now offensively. And the biggest thing- Not explosive enough. They have no explosiveness at all. Yeah, that's true. That's true. And the issue becomes their run defense, which is a liability right now, would not be nearly the liability if their offense was more potent.

But because their offense isn't getting separation in these games, and this is the issue that they had with the Raiders, and which is why I was cautioning about this Raiders game. If the Raiders are staying in this game, I felt like they were going to be able to have success running the football. And Zemir White goes up for what?

Like a buck 50? I don't know. Chris was like, it was insane how they were able to run the ball on this Chiefs defense. And so the Chiefs do not have enough possessions offensively. Usually they were the one dictating pace. They were dictating tempo. They were dictating how quickly or slowly they wanted to score points. Now they're at the mercy

of the opponent. If they have a decent run offensive, like when's Mahomes going to get the ball back? And so he's wondering on the sidelines, can I get it back? I have to be perfect when we get it back. My guys are dropping passes. My guys aren't getting open. Our ground game itself is not explosive enough. There's just so many different factors here. Their line's not good anymore.

Yeah, their line can't block. House, the thing that alarmed me the most that Raiders game was actually that Mahomes was kind of awesome. He was over and over again creating six seven eight second plays and then nobody was open even after eight seconds i i just thought to me that was not an aberration it's who they are and you know there was some uh great um sort of deep dive breakdowns of what's been going on with them i think eric b enemy they miss him i I think they miss him in two ways. First, in terms of- Wow. I haven't heard this take yet. This is great. Keep going. Oh, you've heard this all already? No, I have. I literally haven't.

Well, he's a hard ass. And him being a hard ass, translated, it might be the thing that keeps him from being a head coach, but he definitely busted the offense's ass year after year this is the theory and it had the effect of of execution he created you know an expectation of execution that clearly is missing and then there's also this notion that um he ski he was the superior uh uh guy at scheming. And they're missing someone with that innovation. Who is it now? It's Adam Gase, right? The great Adam Gase. Isn't it Nagy?

Or Matt Nagy. It's Nagy. You don't want to be turning to Nagy. In time of need, you don't want to be turning to Matt Nagy, in my opinion. Well, the big thing is the fact that nobody has to double team Kelsey anymore combined with the lack of speed with the receivers. To me, that just makes sense to me. That's a one plus one equals seven.

If Kelsey's not drawing anyone away, I watched this happen in the past. So yeah, Bengals plus 13. I think Packers plus seven and a half is fun for a tease. Let's take a break and then we'll talk about the big ticket games here. All right, guys, Sharp, I'm going to throw the games I'm thinking about for million

dollar picks at you and then you guys each get your favorite pick and maybe it'll overlap with these picks but just going in a row here. Bears minus three over the Falcons. Staring at this one over the Falcons staring at this one hard Falcons four and ten versus spread in the last 14

two and eleven on the road straight up in the last 13 their biggest strength is their rushing game the Bears are first against the rush Bears are second offensively rushing attack Falcons kind of in the middle and this just feels like every time you can start buying attack. Falcons kind of in the middle. And this just feels like every time

you can start buying into the Falcons a little bit, like, oh, they're figuring out, then they'd fuck it up again. I don't believe in Taylor Heineke. I like them outdoors in Chicago. Weather's probably not going to be awesome. And the Bears minus three seems tasty to me. 30 seconds. Talk me out of it. I don't really trust the Bears rushing attack to close out a game here. Potentially, that's the only thing to talk you out of it. I don't hate the pick, though. I will say I've got a prop on this game that I really like that I would sell you on later if you want me to do that. No, let's hear it now. Throw it at me. Okay. I think Bijan Robinson in the passing game, both of these defenses are very similarly

built in that they're very strong against running back runs. In fact, they're number one and number two defending running back runs on early downs. It might be surprising, but that's what these two defenses are. But they're very susceptible to running back passes through the air. In fact, the Bears defense is allowing opposing running backs to gain 7.5 yards per target. Not only is that dead last in the NFL, that's more yards per target than they allow to wide receivers. Not many teams could say that they allow more to running backs than they do to wide receivers. And so for that reason, if you're looking at Bijan Robinson, I pulled his numbers from FanDuel. Three and a half receptions is like plus 124 the last I

checked. I like that over. And then I've also been doubling up. So if I like something like that, then I'll go ahead and also add over 22 and a half receiving yards. So Bijan Robinson is a guy who I think is going to be, they're going to need to lean on him because A, I don't think Taylor Heineke is going to have that success down the field. They're playing outdoors in the elements. I don't think it's going to be terrible in Chicago, but it's certainly not the dome of Atlanta. I don't think Heineke is that guy.

He's just kind of what Arthur Smith is resorting to. I think when you have a lot of these coaches that are changing quarterbacks, just like we're seeing in Denver and some other places, what they're going to try to do, especially if they're offensive minded play callers, is they're going to try to pass the ball a little bit more with their new quarterback. I'm not saying the Jaron Hall thing, but in this case, in Denver's case as well, to show that my other guy was the guy that was holding this offense back.

This guy is actually a little bit more competent. And so as a result, I think we're just going to see more pass attempts to Bijan. So I really like his receptions over three and a half at plus money and his yards over, but I can't really talk you out of laying the points with the bears other than I worry about their ability to have success against a good Falcons run defense in closing out the game. But that's certainly the way I would look if I was forced to play this one. House, you rooted for Taylor Heineke. I think it's a good, sharp number. I think the three is the right number here.

I think my preference in playing this one is probably the under because I do think that the outdoor impact on Atlanta, it's also some of the numbers that you shared, BS, the Falcons are terrible coming off of a win against the spread the next week. It's one of, like, I think... They're the zigzag team. Yeah, under Arthur Smith, I think they've covered, like, five

times of all the occasions that they've had wins. It's a low number, and it's a bad number. But I don't think that I could see either one of these offenses, you know, getting... These are offenses that get to the red zone and then put the brakes on.

So I think there is a possibility for some wind up there, maybe. We're going to pay attention as it gets into Sunday. Couple of missed field goals. Tiny, tiny underplay for me. House, do you believe in Justin Fields at all? Like where from zero to a hundred percent, where are you? Um, 85%.

I honestly think that, uh, the version of him that we've seen this latter half of the season, like it's, it's a miracle that they finally got an NFL caliber wide receiver for him. And that DJ Moore is out there, you know, more games than not being a stud. Like they, they have to pay attention to their offensive line in this off season. And that would be the way that,

that I would go. I mean, they have the opportunity here to really build in the trenches. They did a great thing. Montez sweat as an acquisition on the defensive side, they kind of got the pieces in place on defense. They just need an offensive line so we can see whether or not

they can really get something going in skill position wise. I was thinking it would be a fun team for him if they decide to trade him because they're getting the number one pick now because my team's stupid, but whatever. What about Atlanta, ironically?

Could this be the game where he lights up Atlanta and then all of a sudden they're trading the 14th pick for him in April and putting him with all the guys they have and they're like, let's fucking go. We're inside. Oh, Sharp's nodding. He likes that one.

You like that one, Sharp? Yeah, I would love to see that because Arthur Smith, think about what he did with Ryan Tannehill when he was in Tennessee. They love to have a decent run game, then attack deeper down the field off of play action. They like to use a lot of motion. Some of the quarterback run stuff, obviously, fields is far more mobile than was Ryan Tannehill. Arthur Smith was really working around

the limitations of Desmond Ritter when he first came there. He had Mariota, and Ritter wasn't ready. That was year one. And so then eventually he moved over to Ritter. And then he tried to get Ritter ready for this upcoming season, and Ritter wasn't that guy. I like how you called it limitations. That was, I think, very benevolent of you with Desmond Ritter. It's the holiday season.

He has not been good doing much of what Arthur Smith wants him to do within this offense. And some of the biggest mistakes, like I question, you know, is Art Smith the one here or what? But like that pass at the end of the game against Carolina, where you, if you kick a field goal, the Panthers need a touchdown to beat you. They haven't moved the ball at all. It's a monsoon. Just settle for the field goal. Why are we calling this rollout play? But then also, what is Ritter even seeing with this pass? So there's a lot of confliction there. I don't think it's been the best year from Art Smith, but certainly he's been limited with the quarterbacks that he's been working with. Justin Fields would be massively better than Marcus Mariota,

massively better than Desmond Ritter, massively better than Taylor Heineke. So you cannot be a Justin Fields fan. First and a third. The price just went up. And still believe that, you know, Justin Fields would massively elevate the Atlanta Falcons in 2024

if they go that route. All right, so we're all in on Justin Fields to the Falcons. I think the smarter move would be trading down three spots from number one, getting more stuff, taking either Harrison or the best tackle, keeping Fields.

But, you know, who knows? Next one I love. We have the new coach theory. How about the new QB theory? The Denver Broncos. The line dropped. Sharp, give us 15 seconds explaining why the line would drop when a team benches Russell Wilson. Why would that drop by two points? What's going on there? It's just the general perception that a new quarterback is less experienced, has less of a pedigree, and is not going to do everything

that Russell Wilson was capable of doing within this offense. And so immediately it's being perceived as a downgrade in the marketplace. And that line got all the way to three. House, you watched Russell Wilson play quarterback the last five, six weeks. I don't think the line should have moved.

I think we made some money on it. I mean, you know, Russell Wilson at quarterback. I mean, I think there was some opportunity. As soon as that turnover luck ran out for the Broncos, it was cash time going against the Broncos. I mean, I think we

all did very well at that. I'm intrigued by this Broncos. I mean, I think we all did very well at that. I'm intrigued by this Broncos situation. I mean, are we going to see Stidham throwing bombs right out of the box? Is that what we're lining up for? I think Sean Payton, I think he couldn't stand Russell Wilson. I think he managed

it the best way he could because they really didn't have a choice. But this to me is a kitchen sink game for Sean Payton to have Jared Stidham just be incredible. They're playing Easton Stick and Coach Giff, who they play Buffalo on Saturday night and new coach Terry kicked in a little bit. Buffalo was fucking asleep. I don't know what was happening with them in that game. And they hung around, so they got their little new coach bump, but now

reality is going to set in. The Chargers are not good. So this line is either unfan-duel, it's still a three and a half. I've seen it three in some places, but we're going to do three and a half for million-dollar picks. But, Sharp, you blessed this one, right? Broncos minus three and a half? I do. I do.

Here's a quick point on this game. I bet on the Broncos against the Chargers earlier this season, a few weeks ago, when not very many people were on it. And the main reason that I liked it is because the Broncos have a clear deficiency at being able to stop the run. But the Chargers are the perfect team to go up against because they can't really run the football. And so if they can't take advantage of that massive weakness, then you're not going to have this situation where the other team's controlling possession, making you play from behind, and you're not able to have a lot of success. I don't believe that they're going to open up this offense to a crazy degree. I still think they're going to operate it with a quick

game underneath stuff. They're going to change a few things, but I don't think they're all of a sudden going to just be chucking the ball all over the field. I do believe that it's going to be a similar style of offense because there have been some positives about the way that this offense has worked in general this season. It's just not the most dynamic. We called it on our podcast, House, the ringer gambling show. Sorry, with House. Simmons, we call it like the James Harden style of offense, which is another thing I got from my guys, Rich and Ray. It's everything with the Broncos offense. They have the highest rate of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, which are the layups. It's all layups or threes. It's either at or behind the line of scrimmage, or it's the deep shot down the field shooting those threes. They have the second highest rate of throwing the ball 20 plus yards down the field and the highest rate of throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage. I think that is a similar approach that they're going to take into this game. But I just think that because the

Chargers can't attack their weakness, that the Broncos are going to have a lot of opportunities here to have success and cover this number. Chargers defense. 29th against the pass. 30th on first down. 27th on QB hits. It's actually kind of a fuck you to Russell Wilson that Sean Payton was like, this is the week for Jared Stidham. Right after a pretty sneaky, tough Pats defense. I will say, guys, I miss Brandon Staley.

He was reliable. He was fun to bet against. He did dumb shit. I feel like we all made a good amount of money on him over the last two years. I don't know if we'll ever see a coach with less credentials be a head coach of a team with that good of a quarterback ever again. His credentials, I didn't realize until I read some of the articles how little credentials he had.

Well, he was one of those guys who moved through every stage. There's people like that in every career. Just one year here, one year there, you say the right things in your next interview. You're always interviewing for a better position. You're always getting your resume out there to try to move up, and you interview well. That's the only explanation. He interviews really well because of that rapid ascent to that position. House, I think we learned a valuable lesson yet again

that if you have a catastrophic, almost historic loss in the playoffs, maybe don't bring the coach back. I mean, the truly stunning thing is that he survived that Raiders game. He deprived his team of going into the playoffs with a decision at the end of a game against the Raiders where both teams are going to make the playoffs. And he snatched that playoff appearance away. If that's not going to get you fired, like what to take? Well, we have our answer now. It took this entire season, plus the collapse against the Jaguars.

Congrats to Dean Spanos. Spectacular. Next one I'm throwing at you. It's another favorite. Normally, you know me. I'm very dog friendly, both in my personal life and my gambling. But this looks like too good of an opportunity, Sharp. The Texans, it's in the Vegas zone.

They're minus four and a half at home against Tennessee. Tennessee is one and nine in their last 10 on the road. They're ridiculously banged up. They no longer have Jeffrey Simmons. Probably don't have their left tackle. Their secondary is in shambles. And Stroud's coming back. It's a must win for Houston. It's the opposite of a must win for Tennessee. And I just feel like I'm getting

value. I think this line should be minus six, minus six and a half. What am I missing, Sharp? Well, historically, Derrick Henry has had a ton of success running against the Houston Texans, but he did nothing the last time that they played. He had 20 touches, 10 total yards. That was an NFL record for the fewest amount of yards gained with 20 plus touches. NFL record. That's what he did just a couple of weeks ago against this very same Texans defense. And that game was in Tennessee. We're still down your number number, what is it? Two or three pick in the draft,

stuffing the run for the Houston Texans. So he's not up for this game, I don't believe. I do wonder though, how quickly with this two week concussion, how quickly does CJ Stroud like get back up to speed and play perfectly? You know, is there a ramp up at all? Oh, that's a possible stay away then. Is there a ramp up at all? Is there

a ramp up at all where he's going to be eased in? Is there a point in time where they're up by 10 points or 13 points and instead of allowing him to get some hits on him, they just hand the ball off to run the football a little bit more and then we get a backdoor

cover on a deep shot from Will Levis who's back. I don't really know. I've not bet this game either direction. I'm just pulling out some things. I don't have any strong take on this one whatsoever. It was already a stay away for me. I didn't like it too many unknowns. I don't like quarterbacks in their first appearance after concussion. That's a new thing with the concussion protocol. Stay away the first week after the... Unless you want to fade the team, then that could be a reason to play

on it. There's some really bad Titans offensive stats, too. This is one of those, I'm going to stay away because I'm properly scared now of CJ Stroud, but I could see it being 17-0 Houston and be like, God damn it. The last one we already talked

about, Bengals-Chiefs, which I don't know whether I want to put in a tease or a parlay, but the reason not to do this house, the Bengals defense, 30th on first downs, 28th third down, 28th passing, 26th

rushing, and 32nd on yards per play. DJ Reader's out for the year. And there is a possibility of, oh, the Chiefs aren't dead yet. They look great. But maybe they look great because this Bengals defense sucks. On the other hand, Big Lou. Yeah. I might consider playing the Chiefs as a teaser leg.

Oh. Seven down to the one, possibly. That would be the only thing that I would consider. I really feel burned by the Chiefs against the Raiders. That was supposed to be their get-right spot. That was supposed to be the thing that sets us, okay, the Chiefs are back. Here we go. They're going to get rolling again.

I admire the hell out of Antonio Pierce and what he's doing with the Raiders, but if you have a scenario where your defense deprives a quarterback from completing a pass after the first quarter and you lose by margin, I'm

afraid of the Chiefs. They scare me. Sharp? The good thing for the Chiefs in this game is that they're going up against this defense. And I know Big Lou is still there, but the personnel are not there. And you

can run on these guys a little bit more. They're down DJ Reader. That's a problem. I mean, hell, what is it? Nick Mullins, who just got bent, she threw for 9.2 yards per pass attempt. And I think it's like first start of the season against the Cincinnati Bengals defense. They're allowing a league-high 8.2 yards per pass attempt.

They're allowing rushing yards to quarterbacks, which I think Patrick Mahomes, that could be another interesting look. Patrick Mahomes in tight games, he's rushing, he's just ducking his head and running with the football. So look for him potentially over his rushing yards. I got to look at what that number is. I haven't bet it yet, but that's something that's of note.

But on the other side, like we've talked about this, the Chiefs struggle to stop the run. And not that I believe that we're going to have a great performance here from Joe Mixon, but the combination of Mixon and Chase Brown, they should be able to have a little bit of success running the football here against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against three top- Sounds like you like the over, Sherb. I do have a couple overs that I can talk to you about. I don't have a play on this one yet. I feel like this total is is similar to what my line is. That being said, I mean, I can't play the under in a Kansas City Chiefs game right now. They are throwing the ball at a pretty high rate and their defense is bad. And so it is a recipe from a formulaic perspective that this is an over team down the stretch of the season. House, can I interest you in Chiefs money line over 38 and a half minus 119? Not really.

I don't want to mess with the total. I would do the Chiefs money line, but I don't want to mess with the total. All right. Well, the Chiefs, you could do the teaser with the Chiefs and the Packers if you want to do that one that House was talking about from earlier. Or the Browns. Or all three. Or all three. Oh, House. It is the holiday season.

What a surprise for us. It's the holiday season. So Packers, we don't like the quarterback. Jared Hall. I saw the quarter that he played before he got concussed, and he didn't look much different than 20 other terrible quarterbacks I watched this year. Hawkinson out for the year for them.

Which hurts. There was a couple games this year where they just threw to him basically every time down the stretch over and over again. He killed one of my bets this year where he had like 14 targets. They have no running game to speak of. And this Packers team, now that Aaron Jones is back, I thought they moved the ball on a pretty good Carolina defense last week. But the Packers defense is what scares me.

This Jair Alexander, did you follow this house? He got suspended for a game because he fucked fucked up the coin flip and instead of just finding him they were like no no this is worse than a fine well you can't play next week it just was a weird story the undercurrent there and this is something that's been going on with this Packers defense I've been wondering whether there's a mutiny going on this quiet Joe Barry FU Joe Barry because Jair Alexander has been on the injury report for like the last six weeks and every week you look at it like well he's close if you read like the the packers blog sites or whatever like well it looks like jair might play and a lot of

times i'm looking at handicapping these games and saying well if he plays then that kind of changes my calculus and every week Jair just takes another week off. He played this most recent week, I guess just so that he can crash the coin flip, but there's something going on on that Packers defense. Well, that's just Jair Alexander.

Let's not bet on them. How about that idea? Good idea. Good idea. I can't believe we're getting here after we just shit on the Chiefs and two straight podcasts. But maybe the Chiefs, they haven't clinched anything yet, right? Maybe this is we get back on track a little bit against the Bengals and we kind of Jedi mind trick people into thinking we're going to be back,

but we're not actually back. This is going to be the aberration game. You buying that at all, Sharp? Well, you're right. The Chiefs have not clinched anything. They haven't even clinched their division title, I don't believe. No, they've clinched literally nothing. Right. So if you're talking about playoffs and who you're going to face, if you're talking about just winning your own division, this is a massively important game for them. And like I said, they did play,

they play on the road week 18 against the Chargers. So they've got, this is their last home game of the regular season. They dropped the game. They're on extra rest for this game. And I mean, just to win this game, I would be looking at them in a teaser leg. I would be shocked if the Bengals were able to pull this one out right now.

We've seen wild things happen. I was shocked that the Raiders were able to win that game outright as well. But this is just a much different defense of the Bengals than what we saw in the way that the Raiders are playing right now. The no DJ reader is a disaster. I was thinking it also really doesn't matter what seed they are because if you're the three seed, you're playing Buffalo, right?

And if you're the four seed, you're probably playing Cleveland, which I guess maybe you don't want to play that defense. Maybe that actually does. I don't know what's the lesser of two evils in that one because with the way they're blocking right now and the way they have no explosiveness offensively, I don't know if I'd want to see Cleveland.

That's a tough one. I would play the dog in both of those scenarios. I'd play the Bills or the Browns for sure. All right, House, give us your favorite pick of the week. Well, it was this teaser situation. I'm off

the Packers, but I'm fine with doing the Browns and putting it with the Chiefs because this really does come down to for the Chiefs the game of the year for them I am going to continue to bet on the Carolina Panthers getting seven at Jacksonville Jacksonville

I had them written down I was saving them for last I didn't realize we'd be talking about them. Well, Jacksonville's bad as a home favorite. It's too many points. Carolina's covered three of their last four, and the one that they didn't cover, they were down by one score halfway through the fourth quarter at the Saints,

and they kept going for it, as they should, on the Saints' half of the field, and they didn't get it. So that ends up looking like a blowout, but they were right there. Their defense has been playing better, notwithstanding what the Packers just did to them. But that Packers offense got something different with Aaron Jones

returned to the full. They ran the ball. Great. Yeah, sharp. I watched every single play of that Panthers Packers game because at that point it felt like Pats for the number one pick was still alive. I was kind of impressed by the Panthers. They fell behind multiple times by double digits in that game. And in the second half, I really genuinely feel like Bryce Young found something. Something changed. He finally, the rhythm of the game and the speed of it finally slowed down for him. And he was hitting guys in stride. He was, like the rhythm of the game and the speed of it finally slowed down for him.

And he was hitting guys in stride. He was moving around at the right times. I just felt like something happened. What did you think? Well, I'll tell you what he found. He found how fun it is to play against a Joe Barry coach defense. It's certainly one thing that he found. I will tell you in that vein, if you look over the last seven weeks, six of the last seven teams to play the Packers have gone under their total the next game because it inflates their offense when they're playing the Packers and then they struggle a little bit more when they're playing anybody else. So I wouldn't expect anywhere close to the similar type of explosion for the Panthers in this spot.

However, if we're looking at that trend in the thought process in the Jaguars, I just looked at my notes here or the, or the news blogger and Trevor Lawrence was not practicing today again. And so if he's logging these DNPs and he's playing with like a 30% caliber. He's definitely hurt. He's got the sprain. We know he has some sprain something.

And even if he plays, he's not going to be 100%. Exactly. Exactly. And so for those reasons, I, and you can't, they're going to, they can't run the football, nor are they going to have a lot of success in my opinion, running against the Panthers. So they're not going to be able to salt this game away on the ground nearly as well, which keeps the backdoor open for the Panthers a little bit longer.

Oh, the house loves the backdoor. If we look at the fact that these games have been going under the total a little bit more in lower scoring, those points are more valuable. So I certainly would not be looking to lay it here with the Jacksonville Jaguars. You know, the Jags lost two of their best receivers. They lost their left tackle.

And their defense kind of sucks. And the Panthers, it's not like they're tanking. They don't have their pick. They've kind of, you know, they're trying to get a little momentum. Last week, I thought was a really positive sign for them. House, what if I took the Panthers to 8.5 and put them with a massive under of 48.5? Sharp, is there any way these two teams score 49 points? I don't see one.

I think the Panthers are certainly happy if this game is not out of reach of being balanced a little bit more running the football here, even though that's a somewhat strength of the Jaguars. I just, I don't think the last week's game is going to convince them that they should just be letting Bryce Young air it out left and right here. So I would expect a conservative approach. And then if you're the Jacksonville Jaguars, if the Panthers aren't scoring points on you, you're not going to try to extend things

and get Trevor Lawrence hurt further. It's weird. We got the AFC. We got the third and the fourth seed, the Chiefs and the Jaguars on these losing streaks late in the season when you're supposed to be turning things on. Like some of the teams I've worked for,

they didn't care if they were okay or bad the first six weeks, as long as they were still in it. They wanted to be humming once the clock turned to November and down the stretch. These teams are just the exact opposite of that. They're playing terribly right now. I think any win by any margin, 1.3 points, whatever it is, they're going to feel like they're monkeys off the back. They feel so much better at that point. And so I absolutely don't think that they're going to be trying to extend the score or

running this thing up. How's Carolina plus eight and a half under 50 and a half minus 120? Let's do it. I like that. That's the same. That's a teaser price. Sharp, what do you think?

I don't know. It's not something that's normally in my wheelhouse, but I don't hate either of the legs. Well, the other thing we could do is just bet Carolina plus six and a half, but then the backdoor could go from 14 to seven. Yeah.

You pick house. I prefer to 7. Yeah. You pick, House. I prefer the combo. Okay. Sharp, what's your favorite pick? It's tough. So the one that hasn't moved as much, you can do totals, right? Yeah. You do totals?

Okay. So there's two totals that I like a lot and I don't care about sharing them because like I said, we're doing a free week at the site so people can get these anyways for free. I like the over in this Rams-Giants game. Now it has moved a bunch, but you could potentially look at the first half over as well if you'd rather not go full game over at 44 and a half. But first of all, the weather in New York

is supposed to be outrageous for this time of year. There's not supposed to be any wins, supposed to be like in the mid-50s, I want to say, like upper 40s, mid-50s, supposed to be perfect. So that's the first and foremost thing. You've got to always check when you're betting an outdoor game in the Northeast this time of year or the Midwest for that point. Secondly, you got Tyrod Taylor and Tyrod Taylor is just going to be such a massive upgrade for them. I know the Tommy DeVito story, Tommy Cutler story was fun, but he's not a legitimate quarterback. Tyrod Taylor has got to be so mad. He got almost killed by the Chargers doctor. He's playing behind Tommy DeVito. He's just got to be furious. And it's not like Tyrod Taylor is the next guy up that we're just resorting

to. This guy was brought by Dayball from Buffalo because they like what Tyrod Taylor can do. They feel like he's a somewhat capable backup quarterback, and they're going to feel confident running their entire offense with him here. The second thing is that the Rams have the largest splits of any team in the NFL defensively versus play action and not play action. When you are using play action against this team, they rank 30th in EPA per attempt, 28th in success rate. When you don't use play action, they're a fringe top 10 team. But over the last six, seven weeks, since week 10, they literally are the worst pass defense in the entire NFL when you're using play action. And they are the best when you are not using play action. 11.9 yards per attempt is what your quarterback gains off of a play action

pass. That's the most of any quarterback in the NFL against a defense. You're only gaining 4.4 yards per attempt if you pass on this defense when you don't use play action. So I think the Giants should be leaning a little bit more into play action here to take advantage of that. And then on the flip side, you've got Matthew Stafford, who this team, they have not had the combination of wide receiver one Cooper Cup, running back one Kyron Williams, and Matthew Stafford, any point prior to week 12, because one or the other was injured at varying different points throughout the entire season. All of a sudden, those guys are all healthy together. And of course,

I'm not mentioning Pucco because he's been there the whole way through and has been obviously just a great story. But once those guys all came back, 37 points versus the Cardinals, 36 versus the Browns, 31 versus the Ravens. I just mentioned the top two defenses in the NFL. 28 points versus Washington should have been more than that. House knows a lot of botched opportunities by the Rams in that one. And then 30 points last week versus the Saints. I think they're going to have success on the ground, through the air. The only concern is the blitz from the New York Giants. Matthew Stafford, can he handle the blitz? If he does, there's going to be guys streaking wide open.

I expect a lot of yards after the catch from Puka in this game. Again, some of the main coverage of the Giants are going to be playing here. A lot of success on the ground. And then don't forget, Tyrod Taylor can run the football a little bit. The Giants run defense is not very good. I just think that with nothing to gain here or nothing to lose rather for the Giants, there's been a lot of criticism about Brian Dable and the drop off from what he's had in last year to this year and has given away some of the goodwill. I just think now he's got Tyrod,

he's going to be able to come back and have some success in this one. And then of course, it's hard not to like the over in that Lions-Cowboys game. That one has moved a lot though, but I just think that the Dallas Cowboys are going to have a ton of success offensively moving the ball early on in this game. They made it a priority up until they went on the road in Buffalo and it broke their streak. They had set the NFL record for games in a row where they've scored 17 plus points in the first half. They were up there. I think they had tied the record, maybe weren't the only ones standing there.

They were scoring seven points in the first quarter religiously. And now you're going up against a defense in this Detroit Lions. That is the worst defense the Cowboys have faced at home. The previous worst defense they played was the 25th Giants and the 24th Seahawks. They put up 40 and 41 points in each of those two games. The Lions are 27th despite playing the 20th toughest schedule. The Lions' past defense ranks 25th despite playing the 10th easiest schedule of passing offenses. And the numbers

don't lie about how much different Dallas is at home than on the road. And I know that there are small sample sizes, so you could say, well, maybe it's because of the defenses that they have played. But the fact is they've played two top five defenses at home and zero top five defenses on the road. They've played three bottom five defenses on the road, zero bottom five defenses on the road. They've played three bottom five defenses on the road, zero bottom five defenses at home. So they have been playing a similar schedule. If anything, I could argue that it's not that much worse at home than it is on the road. And they just are playing and feeling so much more comfortable at home. But on the other side, one of the props that I like here in this game is a good transition to it is Jameer Gibbs longest rush over 14 and a half yards that was just posted up at FanDuel now I would look at that and then also add his total rushing

yards the only concern that you have with him hitting this longest rush is just few attempts or the Cowboys getting out to a massive lead early in this one. But if you look at Jameer Gibbs, his totals aren't anywhere close to this. You go back all the way back to week seven, when he started getting a little bit more meaningful carries. Anytime he's had any number of meaningful carries, he's gone a rush that's been at least 15 yards. He's had one game where he had a 14 yard run. Otherwise, this was three, four, five, six, seven, eight. Eight of his last nine games, he's had a rushing attempt. His longest rush attempt has been at least 18 yards. And he's going up against this Cowboys defense that was cooked by James Cook a few weeks ago. It's going to give up yards on the ground here, in my opinion. And so Gibbs' longest rush attempt over is one of my favorite props of the week.

How Sal and I are going to combine on this FanDuel Same Game Parlay. Dallas to win the first half and the game. Dallas over 30.5 points. Dak 300 plus yards. Lamb anytime TD plus 763. I think Dallas is in the 30s in this game and we've seen them. They go out early. They have the lead. 763. I think Dallas is in the 30s in this game. We've seen them. They go out early.

They have the lead. They keep scoring. If that's going to happen, Dak's going to get passing yards and Liam's going to score a TD. What loses on that one? I have been sitting here processing which one do I like the least. Is there any scenario under which the Lions have the first

half lead like that's the best I can come up with but I actually love all the legs of that parlay I mean I think my two favorite plays and we'll see when it comes time for wise guys I love the Rams team

total over 24 and a half against the Giants and I and I'm going to look at whether or not I can parlay that with the the Rams team total over 24 and a half against the Giants. I'm going to look at whether or not I can parlay that with the Cowboys team total over 30 and a half. That might be my favorite play of the week. These team totals have been pretty decent return on investment this season.

You're down on Rams 24 and a half, right? Over? Yeah, because I like the game total over. We saw some sharp Giants money enter the market earlier this week, but today on Thursday, as we're recording this, some Rams sharp money has reentered the market and some spots this line has been back up to six. So my biggest concern was just does Stafford have success against the Blitz because it is an area that he struggled. But if we're seeing a little bit more Rams money come in, I feel like that he's going to be okay, at least enough to hit that number. And the Giants have struggled defending

the red zone as well. I like the Rams over as well. And there's one bet we didn't talk about yet. It's been, I really, it's the Cousin Sal bet because I feel like he didn't invent it this year, but I feel like he popularized it and mastered it. You can bet Philly to win the first half in the game on FanDuel. And that right now is minus 230.

And we could put that with the Browns in a nice, the Browns money line, we could put that, that's close to even. Can also put that with the Browns in a nice, the Browns money line. We could put that. That's close to even. Can also put that with the over in the Rams. Rams over 24 and a half. Philly to win the first half and then the game. That's plus 171 on FanDuel House.

Does that tickle your balls at all? See, what I thought you were going to do was, you mentioned the Cousin Sal. I thought you were going to do Seattle wins the first half. The Steelers win the game. I guess that is the more popular Cousin Sal. That's really been...

What's that one? Maybe we just put that in anyway. That's been the auto bet all season long from the Cousin. He really let us down early on. 10-1 for Seattle wins the first half. Pittsburgh wins the game. Oh, we got to put something on that.

Got to do that. Just in honor of the CUS. Holiday season for the CUS. Are you down with that one, Sharp? Yeah. At 10-1, I think that's a fun little bet. Just have a little fun with it. Yeah, we can put a little flyer on that.

The only other Dallas parlay which I was thinking on was Dallas just wins over 43 and a half and Dak throws over 250 pass yards and that's plus 130 on FanDuel right now. I don't know. I'm not sure how that one falls apart unless Detroit just beats Dallas. Well, the key is for Dak is

obviously he's back at home, but the strength of the line defense, which is a bad defense in general, but they do have a strength and it's against the run. The Cowboys don't care about that because the Cowboys just want to keep passing the ball. So for them to build a lead, for them to then maintain the lead, they're going to have to keep passing the ball. It's absurd, but the line, there are some elite wide receivers that have high receiving prop numbers from time to time. Some guys are a little bit more consistently absurd because they're just ridiculous. C.D. Lamb's line on his receiving yards is 100 in this game, like 100 receiving yards for C.D. Lamb. It's basically priced out of finding any value. I think he's got a great matchup here. He's going to have a lot of success here. Dak's going to be hitting him a ton.

But betting him over 100, there's just so many avenues for that to go wrong. I don't love that bet whatsoever. But it just tells you that Dak should be in store for a high ceiling if they're lining a guy like CeeD. Lamb at 100 yards. House, can we come up with one crazy four-legger for old time's sake, just for us, where we put... Do you... Go ahead. Let me hear it. What do you got?

Browns money line, the Rams over 24 and a half. In. Eagles to win first half game minus 230. And then if you do the Chiefs-Browns money lines with that, that's a four-legger for plus 353. Browns to win, Chiefs to win, Rams over 24 and a half, Philly and Philly, first half game. This is where Sharp is like, these guys are nuts.

We don't do any of this stuff when we make money. But House and I love four-leggers. We just do. We definitely do. My question to you is, why are we leaving Dallas out of this? The Eagles stink. I don't want to have anything to do with the Eagles.

And Arizona is trying. Like, Kyler, what if he throws two deep ones in the first half? The Eagles come out flat. We keep waiting for the Eagles to do something. I mean, honestly, one of my favorite plays of the week, the Eagles don't beat anybody by two scores. The line's 10 and a half. That's

a joke to me. Why can't we do Dallas? So you want to take the Eagles out completely. Dallas in money line. Oh, that already takes us to plus 359. And then we can do an alternate spread

for the total points. Let's get that to like what do we think? 40? Something nice and low. 43.5 sharp? Does that work for you for the over-under? For Cowboys-Lions? Would you like to go lower?

No. I will say if the price difference between 43.5 and 42.5 is not much, if you price difference between 43 and a half and 42 and a half is not much, if you can choose between those, then 43, that's a key number. 41 and a half is minus 500. So Cleveland money line, KC money line, Rams total points over 24 and a half, Dallas to win over Dallas, Detroit, 41 and a half plus 442 house. Yeah, we did it. That's the one, baby.

That's the one right there. House loves nothing more than a dumb bet. Okay. So, all right. I'm going to figure out all these million dollar picks. Try to do them in a coherent two-and-a-half-minute video. We want to put just a slice on Seattle first-half pick game, right? Just like a sprinkler?

Have to. Out of respect for the Cubs. Okay. One other question that I have for you, Simmons, before you let us go. Your opinion, because you're the expert here on the Patriots, Zeke Elliott, his longest rush attempt this week is lined at 12

and a half. He's hit this, he's had only one run of more than 12 yards since October. He's now going up against the Buffalo Bills. The game script, obviously, the Bills are big favorites. The Bills also have a good run

defense. They rank 10th against the run. And I just think, I know, remind you, Stevenson is out, but he's been out for several weeks now. Do you see Ezekiel Elliott having a run of 13 plus yards here? Because he's done that once, and that

was in week 12 against the Giants. 30 secrets? Ezekiel Elliott's been kind of better than Ramondre. He's not explosive like Ramondre was last year, but he's getting the maximum amount of yards from each carry. He's a good blocker. And it seems like the team really likes him. They're using him a lot in the pass game.

That's where he's had a little bit more strength. I'm going to look at his receptions. They didn't have that lined when I was looking earlier. Yeah, they lean on him a lot, and it's been surprising. And I also think he's auditioning for a job next year. I think he's been pretty good. He's certainly not one of the reasons this team has struggled. I would probably say yes on this.

I think the Pats are going to play Buffalo well this weekend. I can't believe I'm saying that, but I think their defense has been good now for seven, eight weeks. And I am one of the idiots who thinks that if they had a better quarterback, they would have like nine wins. I mean, if the quarterback, even that we thought Mac Jones might be this year, they could have had eight or nine wins.

You go back, their defense has shown up, even without Giudon and Gonzalez, their defense, I don't know if you saw the Barmore stats last week, but Barmore was like the best nose tackle in the league last week. He's demolishing teams. So I don't know. I think that line's too high,

but I wouldn't bet on it because I don't want to root for the Pats. All right, so I have a good handle. I'm going to do million dollar picks in a second. Any last plugs, House? What do you got? I'm on the Rigger gambling feed as many times a week as anybody will permit me. Of course,

why is this a wager coming up on the wise guys? A new year's Eve Sunday. Yeah. Yeah. And then we're, we'll be together for wild card weekend just to tease it. Like all four of us guys together in the studio for the very first time, look out. I'm not wearing pants.

Just let everybody know. Can't wait. Sharp, any last plugs? No, we are going to be doing a pie episode. I know we couldn't convince you when we didn't have the time now to do it, but House and I are going to be doing a pie episode at some point.

We'll do it down the stretch or in the playoffs. And we might actually do it in person. Not wildcard weekend, but hopefully House will have his pants on for that episode. But we don't need an American pie incident. I love pie. I love pie. Every which way.

We never talked about Ravens Dolphins, but I think all of us feel like it's a stay away, right? I don't want to mess with it. Yeah. I don't want to go on like a 10 minute rant here, but the reason that teams are not having enough success against the Baltimore Ravens is because they're not, and this is like sacrilegious for me to say, they're not running the ball enough because the Ravens can be had on the ground and the Ravens are playing with the second most light boxes of any team in the league. And so they're sitting guys back in coverage. If you look last week, Christian McCaffrey had a

great game on the ground, especially in the first half of that game, but they still went like 63% pass because Kyle Shanahan, in my opinion, this is like more like your guys' narrative stuff, but there was an element potentially for me where he wanted to let Brock Purdy throw some touchdowns on national TV to put up a good game. It completely backfired. They should have just run the ball a little bit more. You can run against this defense and then you'll get them out of their light boxes. They'll play heavier and their run, their pass defense splits when they aren't using

these light boxes are really bad. They are like, they go from number two two best pass defense in the NFL with a light box down to league average when they're using just a standard seven-man box. And they're one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL when they have to load the box. So you got to run them out of their light boxes and make it easier for your quarterback a little bit. The question is, is the Dolphins offensive line going to be healthy enough? Both the running backs are still on the injury report, Mostert and Echan. So I don't really know if the Dolphins offensive line going to be healthy enough? Both the running backs are still on the injury report, Mostert and Aichan.

So I don't really know if the Dolphins are healthy enough here, but they certainly do have a good enough rushing attack where they could give the Baltimore Ravens some trouble on the ground if they commit to it and are healthy enough. House, any last words for Kevin Durant? He is who we thought he was. I still believe. I think this is the wake-up call he needed.

I said that earlier in the pod. This is it. You have to make this Phoenix thing work. You have to, and that's it. His single biggest accomplishment since voluntarily leaving the Golden State Warriors is carrying the Nets to the brink of beating the Bucs

several years ago. Congratulations. House, we have a big project coming up that I haven't told you about yet. Does it involve food? No. I am going to be unveiling the pyramid at the end of January

with a two-part podcast that you and I are going to do as we go through it. Wow. Amazing. It's going to be a whole thing. So stay tuned for that. Sharp, great to see you. Happy New Year, house. Happy New Year. Can't wait to see you in LA in a couple of weeks. Thanks for coming on, fellas. Thanks, BS. Thanks for having us. Million dollar picks week 17. We won $240,000 last week. It should have been more. I trusted Brock Purdy. You hurt my feelings, Brock Purdy, but we still won for the week. We're up $1.83 million for the season. We just discussed all of these bets with Sharpen House, so I'll go quickly. Bears minus three over the Zigzag Falcons. Broncos minus three and a half over the Chargers.

And Panthers plus seven and a half with the under 50 and a half adjusted. That's minus 110. All three of those are doing 300K. So yeah, Bears, Justin Fields against Atlanta, who he's probably going to be playing for next year. Broncos, new QB theory. Panthers, still like them. They got nothing to play for, but they also don't have their pick against that crappy Jags team. 300K on each. And then we are doing a 50K parlay that includes the Browns game on Thursday night. It's plus 442.

Browns money line, Dallas money line, Chiefs money line. Dallas adjusted over 41 and a half for the Lions-Dallas game and Rams to score over 24 and a half points. That's plus 442, putting 50K on that. Then we're going to do the same parlay without the Browns, Dallas money line, Dallas over 41 and a half adjusted, Rams over 24 and a half, just them scoring 24 and a half, more than that points. And then Chiefs Moneyline, that's plus 321, putting 75K on that. So one with the Browns, one without them. And then Cousin Sal and I teamed up for yet another Dallas prop. This is the same gamer

using the FanDuel odds. We're going to put 25K on this. Dallas wins. Dallas scores over 30 and a half points. Dak 300 plus yards, and CeeDee Lamb scores a TD that is plus 760 on FanDuel right now. We're putting 25K on that for million dollar picks. And last but not least, they call it the Cousin Sal. Got to do it one more time with the Steelers. Seattle wins the first half. Pittsburgh wins the game. 10 to 1 odds. Pittsburgh has done this, I think, maybe six times this year. Going for number seven, 25K in that. Those are the million dollar picks for week 17. Happy New Year.

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Sharpen House. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti as always. This is the last podcast of 2023. I'll miss you. I will see you in 2024. Happy New Year, everybody. A few years with him On the wayside On the Bruce O'Leary

I don't have Must be 21 plus in president select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC.

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