The Bill Simmons Podcast - A Vikes-Bills Body-Switch, Miami’s Rise, Betting Bloodbath Theories and Week 11 Lines With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: November 14, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to discuss the Colts' first win under HC Jeff Saturday, Bears-Lions, the Packers' surprising win over the Cowboys, and Seahawks-Buccaneers (2:41). They also hit on the game of the year: Bills-Vikings, Justin Jefferson vs. Tyreek Hill, whether something is wrong with Josh Allen, an early look at the playoff picture and more (22:00), before guessing the lines for NFL Week 11 (44:07), followed by Parent Corner (1:15:13). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, you ready for the NBA draft? It's going to be a big one. Saying it's the biggest one since the LeBron James draft, or at least the Duran Oden draft. Wemba Nyama, Scoot Henderson, a bunch of really good college players. Who's going first? What's the order going to be?

We're covering all of it on the Ringer NBA Draft Show with Kevin O'Connor and J. Kyle Mann. Check it out. Follow it. Listen, wherever you get your podcasts. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all.

We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way.

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Here's what you have to do. Visit fanduel.com slash BS to download America's number one sportsbook. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. And listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us.

Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that.

Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you like White Lotus, I broke down episode three with Joanna Robinson on the

Prestige TV podcast. If you like people related to me, my father went on Off the Pike with Brian Barrett, our Boston podcast, to talk about the sizzling Celtics start and the stuff that he's seen behind the bench. I didn't have room for him on this podcast. Barrett grabbed him. My dad's a scalpy on the bench talking about Tatum's incredible start, by the way. Tatum's in the MVP conversation, even though we have, I think, 68, 69 games to go and there shouldn't be an MVP conversation. But when people start throwing around the best players in the league,

Tatum's got to be in there the way he's been playing on both ends. Really, really great to watch. We talked about some of it on Thursday with Verno and House. But if you want to hear more Celtics talk, Off the Pike

with Brian Baricco, check that out. I have new rewatchables coming on Monday night. It is our third installment of Naughty November. We are doing one of the most

underrated great movies of the past four plus decades, Blowout with John Travolta. It's a Brian De Palma movie. It's amazing. It's aged incredibly well. I think it's on HBO Max if you want to watch it before the pod goes up, but it is an all-timer and in the running for greatest Travolta performances. So we have that going as well coming up on this podcast. Oh yeah, because we're going to lick some gambling wounds. We're going to lick a lot of wounds. Both of us are just bleeding in 19 different places. Plus Dallas lost just a terrible game. A lot of strange things to discuss. What the hell is going on with Josh Allen? Do we believe in the Vikings?

Do we believe in Tua? Has the moment arrived? It's all next, first, our friends this on Sunday night. It is 8.30 p.m. It's the Gambling Loser Hour. It's me and Cousin Sal. We're here again to talk about Some of our bets that went wrong

Sal, I've been trying to rash lines this week I've been going back since 1997 With writing a picks column At my old website all the way through And I've never gotten shellacked like this year And I'm trying to figure out why Because I've been watching football every week And the same process I've always had

And this sounds like, oh, sour grapes You're not doing well, you're trying figure it out. Do we have too much information, too much intelligence and too much analysis in 2022? I was thinking back to like the mid 2000s when there wasn't a lot of stuff. We didn't have the websites. We couldn't see where all the money was going. We didn't have all this advanced metrics. And maybe we saw there were advantages with certain lines. Now you look at a game like this, Niners-Chargers, the Niners end up not covering somehow. So if you had the Niners, you still had the wrong pick. But are the lines just too good now? Is that possible? I like this theory. We lose so much money for you people who listen to us week in and week out.

You know why? It's because we're too smart. We know too much. It's not that we're too smart. Who's too smart? Too much intelligence, you said. I'm saying are the lines too good? Is there so much intelligence on both sides of the lines that now the lines, there's no

value. There's no way to be like, oh man, that line's three points off. I'm grabbing that. Or is it just more of a crapshoot than ever because of, you know,

the 17 game season, all the injuries. Like, should we, should we just take the underdogs every week? Yeah, we probably should just take the underdogs every week and root for bad quarterbacks.

But I don't even know what a bad quarterback is anywhere. Like my guy might be a bad quarterback for all I know. But yeah, maybe they need to expand. I think they need to be 50 teams because you probably have a weekly pool as one of your 30 obligations to betting and fantasy football and everything. Don't you look at it and be like, I have no idea. This team screwed me 14 times, but this team screwed me eight times.

So do I go with the team that screwed me eight? I think we just need more teams because I end up hating everyone. That said, I do think there was a concentrated effort starting this morning in Germany. The league said, all right, we took enough money from these idiots. Let's come back to some semblance of normalcy. Tom Brady is better than Geno Smith. Let's put that on the field. The Packers shouldn't be favored by getting five points in Lambeau,

no matter how bad they are. Right. Aaron Rodgers will be back to being good for at least one day. Let's just get it. We'll eat some brats and drink some beer in the morning, and we'll figure it all out. And then they throw that drunk, methed out game, Buffalo, Minnesota, which really didn't make sense at all.

But I do think it was coming around just a tiny bit today. Tiny bit. Maybe I might just back off. I might not listen to any podcast, do any sort of research at all this week and just go with stuff like, oh, the Colts have an interim coach.

The interim coach always does well in week one one even if it's a guy they pulled from a TV studio just every week you get the interim coach I'm not overthinking this I'm just going to take the interim coach I don't need to know anything else oh it's Tom Brady against Geno Smith I don't care what happened this year I don't care that he's 45 years old

oh it's Green Bay at home and they're getting more than three points I'm just taking them I might have to go back to just the mid-2000s, very basic things. This is so pathetic. I feel like we're in a Gamblers Anonymous meeting. Well, the other thing is, I'll take a little

bit of blame. You didn't have to take the Panthers last week and the Raiders this week. Those are pretty goddamn bad. I'm going to take a lot of blame, Sal. I had the worst picks. I just went blind against the Colts. The Jeff Saturday thing, I was just like, I'm just betting him

and Sam Ellinger, there's no way. And then you find out today, no, it's going to be Matt Ryan. And I'm sitting there, Matt Ryan's completely washed up. And I'm like, oh my God, do I hedge? What do I do? And of course, he has a 40-yard scramble and

that was one of those games. The Raiders could have fallen on a fumble. They didn't. It's just textbook. Oh, that fumble. You sent me the clip. That was that non-fumble recovery by number 58 was the worst attempt by someone less than 375 pounds that I've ever seen in my life.

But yeah, I think that game could end it earlier. As soon as like, just a policy wise, if Matt Ryan runs for 40 yards in one stand. Yeah, just put the ball on the field and everybody walk away. That's it. 58. The fumble goes right next to him. And he's treating it like it's a live firework on July 4th.

He's running next to it. He's like, do I pick it up? Do I fall? What do I do? And ends up just having a spasm. And that flipped the game around along with a bunch of other plays. And also, the Vegas is terrible is another problem. I was with you with

Vegas. Because, listen, I picked them to win the AFC West, so I'm not going to flex on whatever muscle I have here. So they're awful and they keep getting worse. But did we're awful and they keep getting, they keep getting worse. But did we overreact to the Jeff Saturday hire? Because we can't really have it both ways. We can't come on here every week and say,

these coaches all suck. I know people who could do a better job. And then they hire a guy who played, you know, and he happens to be drinking buddies with the owner. Okay. That bothers people, but everyone's outraged. Like,

wait a minute, this guy's not qualified. It's like, yeah, nobody's qualified. They're good. The guy they're giving eight, $40 million is not qualified either. So what does it really matter? We didn't have all the information after the hire, because it turned out he had been helping with offensive line evaluation for two years. So he did have like a slight feel for the team. Basically he comes in, He makes two decisions. One

is he brings in this offensive coordinator who had never called plays before because the QB coach turned it down. So he said, all right, I'm going to have this guy call the plays. And then I think he watched Sam Ellinger practice for a day or two days and was like, I can't fucking start this guy. Where's Matt Ryan?

Can he still, can he stand? Can he throw a ball 10 yards? All right. He's in. And then that was it. But I saw the Colts put up his post-game speech. I think I'm in on Jeff Saturday. He gave like this two minute, this incredible speech. He's like a leader of men. He's doing the, we were the tougher team today and he was doing the whole thing. And I'm like, you're right. Maybe that's all this is. Maybe you just have to be able to give good postgame speeches and just have common sense like, hey, Matt Ryan's

better than Sam Ellinger. What are we doing? And that's it. That's all they needed. And they're like a different team. He has four come from behind victories. Now, if the other side is like, all right, they're tanking. And I know this bothers you less than it bothers me. You're in love with the NBA,

and 12 teams are tanking by middle of November, and you think it's adorable. I don't like it for football. Yeah, and it's hard for football, right? Because you get killed if you tank. But you can start the inferior quarterback. So were they on the wrong different pages, Ursae? Or were they just never tanking in the first place?

If they were never tanking in the first place, they should have left Matt Ryan, and he was still capable. I guess four come from behind victories now. Yeah, well, I don't know what happened. I don't know whose decision it was. The Allinger thing was defensible, at least. It was a running quarterback. That's where the league is going, the whole thing, but he was so bad.

I don't know how you start that dude again. Frank Reich was starting to look like a White Walker by, you know, after all the bad quarterbacks that they went through. But it also really helped that Vegas is awful. And that was the hesitation with the obvious bet today. One of the ones I did, a million-dollar picks, which was the squarest bet possible. Cowboys, Raiders, Parlay.

It's like, who's blowing this up? Is it going to be Sam Ellinger Is it going to be At that When we did the pick At that point Aaron Jones probably Wasn't playing

Now all of a sudden He's playing But your team was up By 14 In the fourth quarter I can't say I regretted Having the Cowboys In multiple bets

You looked great Removing the ball And then all of a sudden I don't know what happened It was like They thought the game ended after the third quarter. You knew it heading into overtime.

We were texting. You were like, it's over. I don't even care. As soon as they flashed that stat on Fox, 195-0 and leading by 14 or more entering the fourth quarter. And this is Mike McCarthy. And Mike McCarthy wore the Vince Lombardi

trench coat to the game. I was like, oh, this schmuck. This is going to be terrible. I texted you, House, and Hench. I said, Packers plus 112. Do it. And when they tied, I think it was right before it went to overtime. And then Christian Watson secured his place in the Hall of Fame somehow.

And that was the end of that. So, yeah, that sucked. Well, look at the most common bets today. Bears minus three was, I think, the squarest bet. That was the one House was big on. That game, they're up 14. I had it on the lower TV. And they get a pick.

And it was almost a pick six. And the guy got tackled for the Bears. They were about to go up 21. It was like, all right, let's get that off the TV. Not even monitoring it anymore. Then they cut in. It's like, DeAndre Swift, now it's 24-17. He's like, alright, let's get that off the TV. Not even monitoring it anymore. Then they cut in. It's like, DeAndre Swift, now it's 24-17. It's like, what? They almost had a pick six.

Then Fields throws a pick six. Now it's tied. Fields gets the 67-yard touchdown. I'm like, alright, they're safe. Guy misses the PAT. What is it? 100% of the time the team doesn't win after that happens? It could have gone up seven.

Now it's six. You know something bad's going to happen. The Lions end up a pretty garbage Lions team, to be honest. And they beat the Bears. But I guess those are two bad teams. One, two in a row somehow. I don't care. I can't apologize enough for my Justin Fields stance.

I thought he was junk. I was like, this guy's going to be out of the league next year, and he's the quarterback I want to watch every week, win or lose. He's so much fun. I don't know if he can keep up this running this whole thing. He runs 10, 12 times a game. Well, they have to figure out

the throwing completions in the second half piece of the whole Justin Fields package. I think he had one completion. Those are bad teams. I was even looking at the whole Justin Fields package. I think he had one completion. But yeah, those are bad teams. I mean, I was even looking, I guess the lines for week 11, just how many bad teams there are. And then all the cross-off teams we have now are the almost cross-off teams.

Like Houston's a cross-off. Vegas is a fucking cross-off. Did you see their 0-6 in one-score games? Oh, I'll use a chisel for that. I know. Yes, I've had them almost every week. But remember last year, what were they, like 7-1 in one-score games? Oh, I'll use a chisel for that. I know. Yes, I've had them almost every week. Remember last year, what were they? Like 7-1 in one-score games?

Mm-hmm. And heading into this season, everybody's like, watch out for the regression. Those one-score games. And the Raiders were like, you're right. Watch us. 0-6. Yeah.

And there was a really long story, I think on ESPN, about Derek Carr post-game press conference, like near tears, talking about that he still wants to be there, but insinuating like there's some guys on the team that maybe don't want to be Raiders or whatever. And then

there was stuff about how there were guys yelling at each other in the post-game. And you could kind of see it with the body language. The McDaniels experiment, he was terrible in Denver. I was dubious. We talked about it when we did the over-under pod. It's like, are we sure? How much was Tom

Brady involved with this? But that's a poorly coached team. Maybe they should have hired Jeff Saturday, who trashed him on Twitter two weeks ago. He said the Raiders look terrible. They had an actual tweet that you made fun of today. Yeah.

Hire anyone from TV. What does it mean? Bring Joy Behar in there if it's TV personalities that are working out. But the weird thing is last year should have been the apocalypse year, right? Like, you know, you have the Suggs accident, the car accident. You have the president stealing and he was fired. People don't forget or whatever. There was some impropriety. I don't want to say it was stealing, whatever it was. He left, of course, the Gruden stuff and the emails. And then they have Versace and they make a playoff run and they're one score away from tying the AFC champs, right? And going to Cincinnati. Why is it this year?

But why is it this year? I know they're losing some guy. I know Waller never suited up or just barely suited up, but with Devontae Adams and Josh Jacobs having a good year on offense, I guess their defense just doesn't pressure the quarterback at all. And that's why Matt Ryan could just go crazy. But it doesn't really make sense that they're this

bad this year. Defense was really bad. And the other thing, how many one-and-done... One-and-done is realistic. Somebody getting fired during the season like Urban Meyer did, I think those are things that

are realistic. I wonder if Davis looks at this after the air and is like, all right, everybody's gone. Let's start over. Reset button. Maybe that's a Tom Brady home. There were rumors about that a couple of years ago. Yeah. But does he want to pay three coaches though? That's the problem. You're paying Gruden. You're going to give McDaniels a big money deal and you're going to have to get someone good in there. You're going to have to open the checkbook there, right?

That would make me so mad if I was an owner. That'd be all I talked about. You go to dinner with me. I'd be like, how's it going? I'd be like, I'm paying three fucking coaches. How do we screw this up? I sent paychecks to three different people to coach my team. You're a stupid team, speaking of teams that need to pay multiple coaches.

The Green Bay's somehow four and six now. They lost five in a row and somehow feel like they have momentum. They got Watson going. Finally, Watson speed really gave you guys trouble. Um, at the same time,

I watched the entire game and I have no idea how you didn't win. And it was funny listening to the announcers and they're like, Dak Prescott, he's done this so many times. I had no confidence at all. He was going to do anything, you know, the 28,

28, whatever. Do you have confidence in all. He was going to do anything, you know, the 28, 28, whatever. Do you have confidence in him at the end of these games when it's like, I need a field go or a touchdown, please. Dak Prescott, do you trust him? I don't think we use them right. I was just on a text chain with my Cowboys fan friends. And, uh, I was like, you know, I don't, we'll go over the line. You know, I said, Hey, we could be in a little bit of trouble here. We go to Minnesota and you know, you have teams like Seattle and the Giants. You look at their schedule. They're going to get 10 or 11 wins by accident. They just are the way it lays out.

And that's what we're thinking is the six and seven seeds probably, right? Or five, six, and seven. So we got to do some work here. And I just don't, in a tie game, I really feel like, you know, you don't have to be like Justin Fields where you take off 15 times a game, but Dak never, there's no designed run for him on third and three or third and four or fourth and three or all these short

late down runs. There's no situation where he's going to take off with the ball and he's not rolling out. So he's kind of a dead duck back then back there too. CD Lamb's going to get open. We're going to hit him in Schultz and guys like that. But it does worry me in a close game

that he's not going to be able to close it out. Some really shaky calls in that game. I don't think the NFL is fixed, but that would have been an interesting YouTube clip of just random holding penalties against you guys at the worst possible times. Lamb got molested on a PI. Oh, that sucks.

There's always a receiver catastrophe whenever we go to Green Bay. Yeah, so you're calling these light holding penalties, but receivers can get annihilated. With that said, so it's third and four. And if you feel like that's four down territory, McCarthy's already made the decision. I am not kicking a field goal. This is too far. I don't want to risk it. Those can't be your third and fourth down territory. McCarthy's already made the decision. I am not kicking a field goal. This is too far. I don't want to risk

it. Those can't be your third and fourth down plays. I didn't mind going for it on fourth and four as much, but I just don't like the sequence of that. I'd rather run the ball on third down and try to get closer and give myself a little more optionality. Same here. Every single time. And Dak should

be an option to run, too. He could still move just once or twice a game. Again, not a dozen times. Wow, you've seen Cress fall in. It's effective. Did you write the Cowboys off? Is it efficient? We're here?

Did we make it to Thanksgiving? How many cross-offs do we have? It's uphill. It's uphill at 6-3. I know, I loved us at 6-2, not so much at 6-3. Well, the important thing before we go six and three. The important thing, before we go to a break, the important thing to remember is none

of this is our fault. The lines are too good now. That's right. The lines are too good. It's not us. It's the lines. There's just too much intelligence now. There's no room. You just got to zag. You just got to be like, you know what? You know what? It's Jeff Saturday

and Matt Ryan, and I'm getting points. That sounds good enough. If I endorse them and they win, it's because of me. If I endorse them and they lose, I have nothing to do with it. It's the Lions. It's the Lions. I had Seattle today. The Lions stayed three all week, And it seemed so enticing with the

Seahawks. I'm like, why aren't the Seahawks favored in this game? They're better than Tampa. And the game starts and it's just like, Tampa's on pace for 60 first downs. The only way they're not getting first downs is if they screw up in some way. And you're like, oh man, they did it again. They just know how to do this better than I do.

And I've been doing this for half my life. He was sharp though, Brady. I know you want to say it. He was sharp. And that Rashad White is going to be solid, I think, if he stays healthy. Well, they had a couple things. Julio played, so that gave them at least one more something. Akeem Hicks, I thought, was huge,

which Warren Sharp predicted in the week about how different their defense is when he's out there. And then White is just, their running game actually looked a little frisky. With that said, Seattle kind of lingered and lingered and lingered. And it got to the point where if they had just gotten a stop with three minutes left,

they would have gotten the ball back with a chance to win the game. So in a weird way, it was like an honorable loss by them. They could have gotten annihilated. I just think this is like, when your parents travel, they know they have an agenda, right? and I just I just think this is like you know like when your parents travel they they're pretty

they pretty know they know they have an agenda right they know when old people travel when Tom Brady travels overseas he's going there and he's on a mission and he's not going to screw up like my 82 year old father went to Italy a few weeks ago he's like I'm gonna go see this and this and this I'm like what are you talking about you can barely walk old man you can't get around the Macy's and he came back he's like yep and he's showing picture I'm like, what are you talking about? You can barely walk, old man. You can't get around the Macy's. And then he came back. He's like, yep. And he's showing pictures. I'm like, oh, wow. And that's what Tom Brady did. Old man Tom Brady went there and took care of

business and saw everything. Veteran traveler Tom Brady? That's right. Veteran traveler. He's done it now in three countries, I think. I'm going to make a list at some point. Maybe I'll do it over Thanksgiving break. All the rules I broke this year that I'm just...

I want to go into next year just with these things like, oh, it's an interim coach week one. I'm not betting against that. Oh, it's two teams overseas. I'm just not betting on the game. I'm just out. I'm just out on the game. I think it's almost like the bets you don't make

are part of the key to this stuff. I know not to bet on the 630 game. We lose the 630 game, what, 80% of the time? Did you win that game today? Did you have Tampa or Seattle? I had Tampa, but I had adjusted mine because I didn't trust it. I had plus three and a half, but yeah, that's the

wussy way out. Good for you. Yeah, thank you. I wasn't done by 10 a.m. Let's take a break and we'll talk about the bad karma bowl, the bills of the bikes. Oh. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance.

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All right. Coming back. Game of the year. Bills Vikings. Minnesota wins in Buffalo. They come back from 17. Jefferson makes, in my opinion, the greatest catch I've ever seen in the circumstances, right?

We've had better catches probably. I don't know if you have to qualify. A fourth down? I don't know. It was like a combination of the Odell catch and the Tyree catch. And fourth down, I still don't know how the ball didn't hit the ground.

He just took over the game in this crazy way on the road and it's hard to come out. I know there's a million ways they could have lost the game, but it's hard not to come out of that game with a little more respect for the Vikes, who I wasn't taking seriously. Now coming out of that game, I'm like,

all right, we'll talk about the Buffalo part in a second, but Minnesota is going to be the two seed. Right? Yeah. You coming out of that game, I'm like, all right, we'll talk about the Buffalo part in a second, but Minnesota's going to be the two seed. Right? Yeah. You come out of that game and you're like, all right, that's a really good win. They went into Buffalo. They came from behind. They answered some questions. They got some stops and I'm impressed.

Well, listen, we already got some. You and I, I know you don't check your mentions on Twitter and who knows how long Twitter will be around, but we already got some preemptive hate from Vikings fans. I can't wait for Simmons and Sal to go on and say how the Bills choked and the Vikings aren't good. So let's do that. People said that about us?

Yeah, they did. Those motherfuckers. Elon, get rid of Twitter. Blow that thing up. Come on, Elon, buddy. I had the Vikings in underdog parlay with the Browns who lost by 29 points. But that was underdog parlay picks. That was a real good comeback.

And they played defense. And that catch was the, I don't know, it was definitely top five that I've ever seen. But I also think if the D-back wasn't born, he doesn't catch that ball. I kind of feel like he helped them catch it somehow in an impossible way. And yet it was great.

And then it was like, wasn't it fourth and long or third and long when they threw to him? And he drew a pass interference. Like, no matter what, anything going his way was going to be a positive for Kirk Cousins. And Josh Allen, well, I don't know. Have we praised the Vikings enough? Can we go on to how bad Josh Allen was? I don't know. What more do you want to say?

Patrick Peterson's great. Yeah. Cook was terrific. Running the ball. I don't know. What more do you want to say? Patrick Peterson's great. Yeah, Cook was terrific running the ball. Thielen made some good... I don't know what else I should say. The field goal kicker's the best I've ever seen even though he missed an extra point.

It was crucial. Well, I don't know. What else should we say? That was his fourth-biggest extra point and that's how they're going to lose in the playoffs because that fucking field goal kicker is going to kill them in the playoffs.

And the Vikings fans know it. Joseph. He's lingering like Damien Oman. Cousins throws for 357. One touchdown, two picks. He needs Jefferson to make one of the great plays of all time, just keep the last drive alive. He gets tripped by his own lineman twice.

At least from, I think I watched the entire game. I've never seen a quarterback get tripped by his own lineman twice. At least from, I think I watched the entire game. I've never seen a quarterback get tripped by his own lineman or when he's handing the ball off looks like he's like a drunk guy stumbling out of a cab. He's just like, he's lurching around and yet

the fucking guy makes great throws sometimes where you're like, Jesus! That was a seed? But just classic. They have a fourth and goal and it's like, man, that was a seed. But just classic, like they have a fourth and goal. And it's like, man, I love the QB sneak 99% of the time. But this guy, like he's one of the clumsiest quarterbacks. So Bledsoe's the clumsiest. This guy's in the top five.

And we're like, man, QB sneak, do you do it with him? Do you risk it? I was watching with a friend of mine. We're like, do you risk it? And of course he does the QB sneak, somehow doesn't get it, but it sets up the all the right moves where Empire Pie just has to

either take a safety or whatever. Allen fumbles it. All of a sudden, they take the lead. Allen does this great drive for OT and then the Vikes win. But yeah, let's talk about Buffalo. What'd you see? All right.

Well, I don't know where you want to go. I mean, Allen's thrown like four bad red zone interceptions in the last two weeks, right? So I'm waiting for the MVP odds to pop up, but I don't think he's at the top anymore. I know he and Mahomes shared the spot. I'll give him credit because he wasn't going to play. He wasn't supposed to play. And then he makes that tackle on the first bad interception they threw in the end zone that Peterson runs out. And then you think when they went to commercial, I'm like, oh, he's done. I thought he was like grabbing his leg or something too, but no, he threw his like shoulder into that tackle. And then, uh, a couple

of scrambles too, where he like really doled it out. And I was watching going, I thought he wasn't, you know, contact was supposed to be a little nerve wracking with that injury, but it didn't seem like he cared. That's what gets me crazy about Dak. He didn't take off once. But Allen, for a big guy, is so damn fast. That's where the praise is going to end for me today because, first of all, on that quarterback sneak, and it was the right call. You can't

take a safety there because then you're punting with 40 seconds left and they just need a field goal to win Minnesota. He just rushed a snap because he was so nervous about getting... Everyone's freaking out about it being the wrong play. It's like, just connect with the snap like you did on 70 plays before that, you know? Right. But the

other thing is, running backs, you could have both running backs shove you as hard as they can in the ass, and you'll go forward. And you'll also be around if the ball is fumbled. So I don't know what happened to those guys. That should have been like a concerted effort there. But they did fumble it and they got it right

back and that was it. Really. But then you want to talk about Gabriel Davis. Wait, can you remember that ever happening before in an actual NFL game? I feel like it's happened in college. I don't remember the team fumbling. Handoffs, I've seen it. Yeah, but

not snaps like that. But a fumbled snap on your own two-inch line that the defense recovers in the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown, I cannot remember happening. Yeah. No, I couldn't remember it either. But that was just the beginning of like,

I don't know, that was such an emotional run because I wouldn't have been on this podcast right now if Bills plus three and a half didn't cover because I was adjusted and I had a lot of money on that. And I was like, I mean, think about when they're up 10 with the ball, what has to go wrong for them to not cover three and a half? Actually, it was four and a half. But the Gabriel Davis thing is why no one ended up feeling bad for the Bills.

Right? Why? That catch that they needed to review and they never did. Right. That was bad. I don't... Yeah.

I just don't understand how we miss stuff like that at this point in 2022. Where we'll miss... We'll get 98% of this stuff, but arguably the biggest play of the game and they're like, just keep it going

because the clock stopped. The clock was stopped. There wasn't any rush job there. That was bad, but I also think they might have gotten in field goal range anyway because they ended up kicking from the nine. I have two questions for you. Two unrelated questions. They're in second place.

If it came out that Allen got hurt four weeks ago and had a serious elbow injury and they've just been hiding it, would you be surprised? No, and he should say that anyway. After the fourth red zone

interception in seven days, I think you should maybe say that. He's been so good, though, too. He looks so good sometimes too. That's the weird thing. But he's turned back into the guy from two years ago who can look awesome and then you just don't trust him at all

in these big throws. Yeah. You can only have one wide receiver the rest of this season. Do you take Tyreek or Justin Jefferson? Tyreek or Justin Jefferson. You're trying to win the Super Bowl your first pick with one of those two guys I think Justin Jefferson

I think right? who do you take? I actually think I'd take Tyreek I'm gonna screw it up I think what Tyreek is doing in these games is the speed threat with him screw it up. But I think what Tyreek is doing in these games is the, the speed threat with him.

And that like these plays were to under throws it. And I can't, the throws are so bad that I'm not, this isn't a two insult, but it's happened 10 times this year. The under throws are so bad. I almost feel like they have to be intentional where they use Tyreek speed and he blows by the guy,

but also can stop faster than the guy and cut backwards faster than the guy. So he can basically catch anything that's thrown where him in stride, but then anything that's under thrown, he can come back and get, he can run those slants. Anytime you have third and two or fourth and two, which the chiefs used to love to do with them. They can put them in motion and get that little three-yard slant thing. And the defense just seems so terrified. I saw there was some two MVP thing today. Mike Lombardi

was saying this last week about how he thought Tyreek was the MVP, which to me, it's Mahomes because I don't feel like they have an all... At this point in the season, I just don't think they have an elite skill guy other than Kelsey. His numbers are just like through at this point in the season. I just don't think they have an elite skill guy other than Kelsey. And there's numbers

just too good at this point. It's like 24 touchdowns. It almost doesn't matter who he plays with. Yeah. But I would, I think Lombardi's right. I think Tyreek,

the impact that he has, it's just like the, you just, he's always there. It's like a basketball player where like that, it's like seeing Durant or something where you're just like,

the guy's always there. He's going to get his 30, there. He's going to get his 35. He's going to hit threes. You're going to have to double team him. You're just going to have to do shit. So I would probably have Mahomes one, but I do think Tyreek's probably two for me. Mahomes? Oh,

for MVP. As far as Jefferson and I don't really feel like you can cover either one of them. I honestly don't. You get so mad. Just cover Jefferson. Just do it. What is Thielen going to be? Who cares? And then you look at the wide view, and it's like, oh, yeah,

he's just getting open every single time. So can I take Christian Watson out of the three? At the pace Christian Watson's on, maybe. All right, so I'm fan of the Bills are minus 180 to win the AFC East right now. The Dolphins are plus 240, and the Jets are 11-1. I mention this because the Dolphins have a better record than the Bills. What about your team? How do you not mention your team at 16?

Have you seen Mac Jones this season? I'm not going to talk about it. You have the Jets. You're home against the Jets next week. Can I see Mac play good for three Jones this season? I'm not going to talk about it. You have the Jets. You're home against the Jets next week. I'd like to see Mac. Can I see Mac play good for three hours this season? I think the Dolphins should be favored. When we're throwing in

like the... Well, they were 4-1 when we had this conversation last week, right? So now they're 2-4, do you say? Yeah, but when you throw in the Allen thing where he might genuinely be hurt, you throw in all the injuries they've had. And then, you know, I got to say, like, you know, I had Cleveland today

and the game was over pretty much immediately. The Wilson-Mostert combo, and Mostert, like, you know, he plays five games and then he gets hurt. He's out for seven games. Like, that's probably why the Niners didn't care about getting rid of him. But those two guys are like good running backs

and they know how to run in that scheme. And I just feel like, I don't even think we saw their punter today. The Dolphins. They didn't punt. I don't think they punted. They scored six out of seven drives. I don't remember seeing him.

Yeah, not one. I don't know, man. I was looking up the 99 Rams and, you know, that's hallowed ground because you got Marshall Falk. Marshall Falk was 1381 rushing and 1048 receiving that year. They had Bruce and Holt. They had Azakim, video game legend. Oh, yeah. Azakim. They had Warner 43, 53 yards, 41 TDs. They scored 526 points. I'm not saying the Dolphins are that good, but it's now surprising if they don't get 30 points in a game unless they're playing somebody awesome.

Rest of the way, they have Houston next week, and then it gets tough the last six. They got San Francisco, Chargers, Buffalo, Green Bay, Pats, Jets. Two is seven and one in games he's played. Well, they're off next week, right? Yeah, they're off. Two weeks. But I think you can make the case that their offense is probably the best unit of anything in the AFC, right?

Right now. Is that fair? Anything in the AFC. Sure. The Dolphins offense is the single best something in the AFC right now. Is that fair? Anything in the AFC. Sure, yeah. The Dolphins offense is the single best something in the AFC right now, I would say. Yeah, I don't think. Have you seen the Jag special teams? No, you're right. Definitely their offense.

But does it come down to them winning in Buffalo? I know they beat them already, but the head-to-head, I don't know what the tiebreaker is if we're talking about actually winning the division and then the rest of the schedule the rest of the way, but they're owed a game. I think it's late in the season against Buffalo, right? Yes. Well, I feel way better. But you're right about the Allen thing.

If he's banged up or has to sit a game, then you're going to make too much of a difference there. Also, defensively, they're pretty banged up or has to sit a game, then you're going to make too much of a difference there. Also, defensively, they're pretty banged up. White didn't play today. Porter didn't play today. They have a pass rush, and that's about it. Two is better than I thought it was going to be. I wasn't a huge fan.

I was not a believer. I knew there was a path for them to go 10-7, 11-6, whatever, because somebody was going to do in the AFC. But I think his release now, he just right away, he's making these quick one second decisions. And I don't know, it's pretty impressive. Now the Browns have a terrible defense. And then you look at all the teams they played the last few weeks and they haven't really played any good teams. The schedule is going to get tougher. I still want to see how

he reacts when somebody is sending the house at him and he's taking some hits. He's had two concussions this year. So there's some red flags with that. My point is plus 240 doesn't seem, that seems too high to me. Well, why are they so disrespected by Vegas? Even today was three point. Everybody loves it. May everybody want to talk, you know, we just did five minutes on the dolphins in their offense. It's going to be one of the best comparing it to the Rams of old and everything. Why were they only three points? We need to come up with a name or a term for those spreads that seem so easy and yet we run away from it like like three card Monty like

I swear the ball is under the shell to the left, but that's what they want you to think. So I'm going to take the other shell, which isn't even, nope, I was wrong. So that infuriated me more than any other line this week, because you're right, it was over early and it was only three and they were at home. Well, you're asking somebody who had the Browns money line. Yeah.

I took the points too. There's like five games this year that screwed me up for the next couple weeks after the result of the game and one of them was that Browns-Bengals game that game on Halloween the Browns destroyed the Bengals and it looked like

they had some stuff going on and now you look back and you just think that Bengals just played the shitty game and the Browns played really well which seems like that's the case for 24 of the 32 teams this year they could have a Browns-Bengals game and then they can get absolutely destroyed

like the Browns did today why is it so hard? it doesn't need to be this hard maybe we should just start zagging yeah I don't know the Allen thing I don't know. The Allen thing. I don't know, man. He has not looked right.

It's the best way I can say it. Just watching. I don't like the look on his face. I don't feel like he has the same swagger. And he looks like a guy to me that's legitimately hurt. And I don't know how much they're covering up. I will say with that game today, though, because my best friend's a Vikings fan and it's just,

it had all the makings of the classic Vikings loss, the fourth down and one or whatever. But sometimes you go against a team that has just as bad karma as you do and the Vikings met their match in the Bills. The Bills were like, hold my beer. You think this is going to be a bad loss? Watch this.

We're the Buffalo Bills. We lost four straight Super Bowls. Settle down. What do the poor fans do to anybody? But on the other hand, this is not even a consideration. We're not this down on Josh Allen if they

get the snap right. Right? Yeah, that's fair. Just come down to that. That's fair. There were some bad throws in that game though. Yeah. I mean, like he had three. Oh my God.

What was he looking at? Um, quickly before we do guess the lines, um, things I was wrong about this year, heading into the season, just going to list them quickly. That's going to be quickly.

Yeah. Yeah. Is that what he's going to rip them? Green Bay is a Super Bowl team. Carolina being the sneaky NFC team. Cincy as a contender. I think I was wrong. Mack Jones being a good quarterback.

Shorting Indian Tennessee. Not believing in Tua. I thought the Bears were going to be the worst team. Me too. And I thought Jeff Saturday was going to be a historic disaster that we'd laugh about forever and ever. So far, that's all the stuff I've been wrong just in 10 weeks. There's more to come.

Oh, yeah. I got you beat. I got you beat. I had the Saints winning the NFC South. I had the same thing with the Raiders. I don't know if you can count the Bengals out. You said the Bengals being a contenders out? They might be in the same spot they were last year.

They'll be like, Chase might come back. They, Chase isn't on the IR. He might actually, uh, circle back. I got to say the saints was one of the few things I might've nailed because I

was, I was so dubious of Dennis Allen, just remembering him from his Raiders tenure. And people are like, yeah, Dennis Allen, he knows the system. It's like Dennis Allen.

It's like one of the worst coaches the last 10 years. Uh, quickly before we go to break. So Casey seven and two Miami seven and three Tennessee six and three Baltimore six and three. Those are our four. Those are our four, uh, division seeds right now.

Mm hmm. Jets and Buffalo six and three. And then Cincinnati, new England and the chargers all five and four. Right. If. And then Cincinnati, New England, and the Chargers, all five and four. Right. If you had to pick, let's put Buffalo in the playoffs. Right. So I'm giving you Jets six and three with Zach Wilson, who nobody trusts,

and we've yet to see make even a decent throw in a game that mattered. I guess he's made a couple, but you know what I mean. Cincy five and four, New England 5-4, Chargers 5-4. What two are you taking out of those four? I don't think I'm taking the Jets. I think they go away soon. They're at your Patriots. They're home for the Bears, which I think that's a toss-up for anybody now. They're at the Vikings. They're at the Bills.

They play and they're at the Dolphins to end the season and at the Seahawks. I think they go away. So what are my choices? Cincinnati I'll take and I don't want to say the Chargers here, but I think

your team. I think your team. Wow. I really do. Can I give you a Jeff Saturday and Matt Ryan at four or five and one? You can have them as well. If you're interested in them. Um, now they'll come to their senses. I wish the Browns were four and five because then we could start being like, well, when the shot comes back, but three and six, I think is insurmountable.

Yeah. I want to see the Seanun blow it, right? Now I'm at this point where I want that guy to blow it. Why is this fun rooting against Perse? That would have been fun. Well, the reason I'm bringing this up is there is a world where we could have four AFCs playoff teams.

Yeah, we said that about the NFC also, right? Yeah, but this really could happen because all that means is the Bengals and Chargers don't make it. That's that outcome. So, we'll see. I'm higher on this Jets team than you because I think their defense...

I picked up their defense in a couple of fantasy leagues. Their defense has been quietly racking up all kinds of shit the last couple weeks. You did something ridiculous. You bid $15,000. I know you're a couple of fantasy leagues, their defense has been like quietly racking up all kinds of shit. The last couple of weeks. You did something ridiculous. You bid $15. I know you're a rich,

rich man, but you bid $15 on the Jets defense and they're not even, they were off this week and you had to get another defense, right? You act like that was. $15. I thought the Jets were playing this week. I looked at the schedule wrong.

So I bid $15. I don't care if they're playing every game. $15 for defense. I had $100 left. I needed to spend money on something. Wow. Yeah, but no one's bid more than two. All right. $15.

God bless you. Our season's over after week 13. What am I going to do? Take the money into the offseason? I needed the Jets defense. A couple other things that happened. Cooper Cup finally got hurt. We've only been predicting that for 10 weeks.

There's some Kyler Murray Ewing Theory stuff going on. And Kadarius Toney, I know you hate Giants fans more than just about anything. I do. Kadarius Toney lighting it up today against the Jaguars really made Giants fans more than just about anything. I do. Kadarius Toadie lighting it up today against

the Jaguars really made Giants fans upset and angry and hurt their feelings and especially when he did the one-legged tiptoe down that that's it. He's public enemy number one. I can't wait for Chiefs Giants in Giants Stadium. It will be great. He actually looked pretty good in that game.

He did. He's good. I don't know if it's a case that Mahomes just ends up making everybody look good. But yeah, for a fit that quickly, they have to be happy with that. And I think Galladay dropped a bad ball today. Yeah, he did. They should just wait for it. Even though they covered, they had trouble with that team. What did he run?

35 times? Barkley? He never ran 35 times against the freaking Texans. He must be like, hey, this is supposed to be everyone's week off, even though we had a week off last week. Let's go on here. I had that game on one of the TVs because I had a Giants fan over, and the Giants tried to give that game away for three hours.

Yeah. Houston just wasn't good enough to grab it, but they were lingering, lingering. They kept passing the 25-yard line, and they always had the ball. I don't know. The Giants are second, too. They're going to win 11 games.

They're going to win 11. They can't not win 11 games. I'm looking at it. Let's take a break, and then we'll do Guest Alliance. Before Guest guest lines quickly, I did the AFC before NFC Phillies eight. No, Minnesota is eight and one.

So we have the top two seeds basically locked unless something funky happens. Seattle, six and four, Tampa's five and five. Those are our four division seeds right now. And then we have giant seven and two Dallas, six and three in the Niners 5-4. Those are probably our playoff teams.

I'm trying to think who could crash that party. I think the Niners and Seattle switch, but one will get the wild card. But you know what I mean. Yeah, sure. So really it's the Packers would be the only one, I think. You can make a case who's crashing the party as a 7 seed

or a 6 seed maybe it's them maybe the commies maybe Joe House's commies after they pull the upset tomorrow you think the Comma Roos can do it

I do I do I think they got off to a little bit of a slow start but they're in the mix like everybody else now Packers have a brutal schedule left

they still have the Dolphins. They have the Vikings. They have the Eagles. They've got a sneaky at-Chicago game. So maybe it's not then. So you think, so the Commanders, they have,

well, they're Eagles this week, so they'll be four and six. Well, I feel like you didn't know not so fast with that one, but I feel like you do with the AFC East, except you're not giving your team a chance.

But I do feel every one of those teams can make it. They don't play each other that much to knock off losses, too many losses. So commanders could be up there. Somebody forwarded me a clip of Carolina's roadmap to the playoffs. And it's actually kind of doable. In the NFL? In the NFL? Yeah.

They need to win four games, and they can do it. They have the Steelers, the Lions, the Bucs in week 16, and then the Saints in week 17. So they'd have to win, I think, those four, and then they'd have to get lucky with they'd have to either beat the Ravens, the Broncos

or the Panthers in the next three games then the Broncos stink so and they're three and seven I'm just trying to figure out ways that we could have the NFC South isn't done yet because Tampa's only five and five I'm not ready to be like here's your NFC South title

Tampa we gotta start looking, and this is going to piss off the Vikings fans who are so vocal on Twitter with us. So you said they're locked into the two seed. I want there to be a good seven seed we could bet on here. I was thinking it might be the Giants. Yes, but I think the Giants are going to be too good. I don't think there's any way they get a seven. So it's any of those teams. It's like Seattle or Dallas.

I think it's Seattle or Dallas right now. Tampa's minus 420 to win the division on FanDuel. And Carolina's 34 to 1. Maybe that's how I save million-dollar picks. I just put all the deficit on Carolina 34 to 1. You've learned a lot. It's funny. All the divisions are pretty much heavy favorites except Bills are minus 180.

And then what's the other one? The Niners are minus 220. I know we go back and forth with Jimmy G, but did he throw downfield once? I think he threw past the sticks like once today. It's an effective offense, but it's also so boring if he can't throw 15 yards downfield.

I feel bad. Kyle, don't listen to this part. Just take a walk. Maybe go take a pee or something. Jimmy G's been bad this year. I don't really feel like there's any difference between him and the 10 other mediocre or worse quarterbacks. Is Jimmy G's been bad this year. Like, I don't really feel like there's any difference between him and the 10 other mediocre or worse quarterbacks. Like, is Jimmy G better than Davis Mills?

I don't think he is. Is he better than Mac Jones? Or is he better than, I don't know, Jared Goff? Like, is there a difference between like 11 of these guys? Can he pick it? Does it really matter? They're all kind of around the same, right? Yeah, they're going to throw the three-drop

picks. It's not even spectacular with the crossing routes. I've had Debo Samuel, and I need five points from him in many fantasy leagues, so I'm extra pissed off. Yeah, he doesn't throw. They have, I want to say, a lot

of weapons, but I almost think he's confused by how much he can go to, right? Because what do you have? You have Mitchell. You have McCaffrey. You have Ayuk. You have Samuel. You have Kittle. Kittle hardly ever touches the ball now, right?

Dude, I think it's like too big a menu. They scored 19 points today. It's embarrassing. And they're in the red zone, and they have no idea what to do when they're in the red zone. I think he's been bad. It's interesting. The Lance thing

might have been a bigger what if than I think we realized when it happened because even if Lance was doing like a Fields impersonation, that's still more interesting than a lot of the stuff

Jimmy G's doing. I don't know what happened in this year. Maybe his shoulder is just not the same anymore. You know, he had the bad shoulder last year,

but all right, Thursday night, we have Green Bay at home. Green Bay could be five and six and back in the mix by Thursday night. They're playing Tennessee. I got this exactly. I'm warning you.

Right off the bat. Congrats. Wait, what's your... You're five, two, and three heading into week 11. I had the Packers by two and a half. We tied. Yeah, it's two and a half.

Oh, excellent. I can't even gain on you on the first one. Well, I knew it wasn't going to be three. So where does that line end at? I think that's pretty fair. So the Cowboys jumped to five and then went down to like three and a half, four. Maybe Green Bay gives three.

I didn't watch a lot of Tannehill today. I didn't have that game on TV. I decided to sacrifice Titans-Broncos and I think it was the right call. Pretty good. Yeah, there was no score for a long, long time. And then Jerry Judy got hurt, but I didn't even see his numbers,

but I guess he was okay. Yeah, Vrabel's at the point where if it's like, it's my shitty team against your shitty team, I'm winning every time. He's like a poker player where it's like, I have a four and a six, and you have like a jack two, I'm going to win the hand. I'm just going to bully you. Yeah, I'm going to stare you down. I'm going to do weird stuff, and you're going to be on the defensive and I'm taking the pot.

Yeah, they had 307 total yards. It was nothing. And even Henry, there was only 63 total rushing yards for the team. Yeah, today it was like Trelon Burks is back. Mm-hmm. Yeah, everybody picked him up in fantasy on Saturday night.

Oh, awesome. He was really lightened up before it got hurt. Sunday marquee game. Your team's involved. This is quite a game. This gets me mad. I miss Troy and Joe today. And I thought Olsen was pretty good.

I thought Olsen pointed out some good stuff in that game. I actually thought they were pretty solid, but that would have been a really fun Aikman-Buck game because I think Aikman I just think he would have been harder on Dak. Don't you think? I like Olsen too.

I think Olsen, there was one thing that I laughed at, Christian Watson's first touchdown. He's like, that might be the biggest catch of his career. It's like, well, he's a rookie. He has one rushing touchdown. He has no receiving touchdowns. And yeah, it was a Lambeau. And he's like, he's got his ass in the stand.

He's sitting with the fans right now. So yeah, I would say that's the biggest. And then he had two more just as big after that. Thanks for coming, Greg. This game's in Minnesota. Fortunately for Kirk Cousins, not a night game. It is the national game. I had a lot of trouble with this

because the line is either Minnesota by three or Minnesota by two and a half. And I stared at it for a long time. And I stared at it and I kept staring at it and I ended up at Minnesota by three. All right, we're going to be just as wrong because I had Minnesota by three. The Cowboys are favored by one and a half.

What? That's so stupid. What? That doesn't make any sense at all. And now I have no idea what to do with this game. I'll double check, but let's see. I'm stunned by that. Cowboys one and a half.

Yeah. How does that? The better record, they're at home. Are they going to be Cowboys fans there? You said the Vikings fans are mad at us. They should be mad at the people that set the lines. Yes. Put your anger toward them.

We're on your side. We like the Vikings. Right. And now I'm going to bet the Cowboys and they're going to lose by 30. Is there any way this could, it does get dark late now, right? Or early rather. Maybe this goes to overtime. It will be technically be a night game maybe.

I don't know. How much is the, when they do Cowboys-Vikes, is the inevitable Drew Pearson highlight of him pushing off for the game winner? He didn't push off. That factors in by three points, right? That's three extra points for the Cowboys-Vikes is the inevitable Drew Pearson highlight of him pushing off for the game winner. That factors in by three points, right? That's three extra points for the Cowboys. Because the Vikings can't see that. It's like me seeing the ball going through Buckner's legs.

I'm so irrational about all this. I still got mad at Jason Garrett for the Cowboys loss today, even though he has nothing to do with it. And then two hours later, I have to see him on there. So bad. It is crazy that they picked him.

They're like, how about this guy? People know who Jason Garrett is. They know him because he's the guy who just clapped incoherently during Cowboys games. The Cowboys fans wonder what the fuck he did. Let's put him on TV. This will be good. He's not bad.

He's not good. There's no weight. He never won anything. I don't feel like... At least Tony Dungy won a Super Bowl. All right, Tony Dungy coached some good teams. I can't stand it. I'm never going to stop hating.

I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I know it's irrational. I'm never going to stop hating. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I know it's irrational. I'm a child, a petulant child, but I can't stand what he did. Well, I feel like that. I mean, when I saw Rick Pitino and Rick Pitino started doing well in college,

it made me mad every time. I just hated him for the rest of my life for what he did to the Celtics. Right. So I get it. It's like, I'm an idiot, and I see how much he sucks at everything. Why can't someone's going to pay him a lot more than just keep paying him to suck.

All right. He should, the Raiders coach should pay him too. He's going to pay the three coaches. Also just send Jason Garrett checks. Oh, the owner. Yeah. Or the owner. Yeah. By the way, I was driving. God, the owner? Yeah. Or the owner. Yeah.

By the way, I was driving. God, what day was that? Thursday night? Maybe it was today. And Mike Mayock was doing color for one of the games. The guy who was the Raiders GM for like two years. Yeah. He was doing radio?

Yeah. He was the radio color guy. And he put together one of the worst, I think, draft three-year runs in the history of football. And then it's like he's breaking down what's going to happen on third and eight. I was impressed.

I guess I shouldn't talk because I've been 0 for 5 in my NAR picks this week. We're only 15 years doing the same thing. The watchables, I have two games. One we mentioned earlier, the Pats and the Jets in new England. My dad came out today.

He's, um, came out officially today. It's a zappy guy. Really? Yeah. Yeah. He's throwing his support behind zappy.

Um, he thinks Mac is broken. And has no faith in him whatsoever. So that happened. He thinks back is broken and has no faith in him whatsoever. So that happened. He can win you back with this game, with this very game. It's supposed to be a stout defense.

Get a lucky couple trick plays over the bye week. I don't think Belichick let you lose this one. Jeff Saturday would come in and two days in, he'd be like, my QB is Bailey Zappi. I have New England at home favored

by two and a half points over the Jets. Ooh, do I get this? Yes. I said four and a half. It's four. That's too high. They can beat us. The Pats aren't that good, Sal. Jets are going away. We have a really good defense

and that's about it. And a good running back. What is Zach Wilson's stats against you guys? I would love to know. Not great. Not great at all. The other watchable game,

and I think it has to be in here, even though it's going to be a high line. I just think Josh Allen, I think he has to be in here, even though it's going to be a high line. I just think Josh Allen, I think he has to be in the watchables because I want to see what the fuck, is he healthy? What's going on with this guy? Like I know I'm going to be watching this.

So I have the bills favored by a 10 and a half at home over the Browns. Oh, you just nudged me. I said 11. I went way too high and you went high. It's, it's eight and a half. You get it.

Okay. Well, now you want to tease that, huh? That's what you're saying? I'm not putting Josh Allen in any sort of bet. I might not bet anymore. I've been thinking about just moving to basketball. I had the Sacramento Kings over 35. I just want to root for the Kings and Celtics. Well, but if you try to bet a day-to-day, you're going to kill yourself. Fairly watchables. Falcons-Bears is the first one. It's the two quarterbacks who love to run around,

and if they're thrown more than 20 times, you're in a lot of trouble. It's a borderline loser-leaves-town match. The Bears might have already left town. I have the Falcons by three in Atlanta. Yeah, we both had three. It is exactly three. Yeah. They were so bad Thursday night,

Falcons. I guess the weather was bad. We could have predicted it. You had Carolina. You must have had Carolina Thursday. I didn't bet that game. I stayed away. I've lost enough money in the Panthers this year. I didn't bet that game. I stayed away. I've lost enough money in the Panthers this year. I had no more Panthers money to give. Oh, yeah. They were coming off that terrible loss, right?

Yeah. I just couldn't do it. P.J. Walker broke my heart a week ago. By the way, he tried to throw the Falcons a couple picks in that game, and they just dropped him. But Mariota had five of the worst plays of the season in that game. He looked like, you know, there's some things whatever. If he doesn't have the skills, it's

one thing. But, you know, when he's rolling right on like second and seven and he just doesn't get rid of the ball and just like runs out of bounds instead. Now it's third and ten. What the hell are you doing? You're not a rookie. Don't do that. We have these quarterbacks that's probably like when you're in Harrison's

eight-year-old baseball games where you have the kid that comes in and he can throw strikes and then he throws 20 straight balls and starts crying in the mound. And you're like, what happened? You were just throwing strikes. Now you're throwing eight straight over the catcher's head. How are you the same kid? You were just fine five minutes ago. And that's like seven quarterbacks this year. Oh, more than that. 10 quarterbacks?

27. It's like, Marriott, it's like, are you the guy who on Thursday night is the worst quarterback I've ever seen in my life? Or are you the guy that when Carolina scored

to go up, you know, by three with three, four with three minutes left. You just rip down the field and put together like a four-play ADR drive. Who are you?

Which guy are you? I have no idea. Yeah. I think the default is the bad one for all these guys. To be safe, pick the bad one.

Giants-Lions, this is in Jersey. The Giants-Lions. This is in Jersey. The Giants really catching the schedule ferry really coming up big. Sprinkling some bad team dust on the Giants. I think this is in the Vegas zone. And I think

it's going to be Giants by four and a half. Ah, you got me again. I said five, and I should know better because Vegas Vegas doesn't respect them at all they're three and a half oh

Jesus you get that one House I mean what were they I think they went I think they went down to three and a half today against the Texans

right before kickoff what were you saying about House well he was all excited about the Jared Goff cold weather stats oh right and of course

Jared Goff they ended up orchestrated a comeback today so this is another cold weather Jared Goff cold weather stats. Oh, right. And of course, Jared Goff, they ended up orchestrating a comeback today. So this is another cold weather Jared Goff game. We'll see. Well, the Jared Goff garbage time stats trump anything anyone could present, right? So it doesn't matter what the weather is. That's really crazy.

Playing in a ship. Speaking of the Panthers, my Panthers, they're in Baltimore against the Ravens who Dobbins is now out Bateman's out for the year

Mark Andrews might not be playing who knows everyone's excited about Isaiah Likely but I'm positive he's not Mark Andrews right

and yet I like I still like that Ravens team. They just keep losing guys. So I'm like, you know what? Good coach, great kicker, good enough defense. Lamar will do some stuff. And I just feel like I'm still taking them seriously. So I'm going to put this line Baltimore by seven and a half.

Oh, wow. You are going to be surprised. I said 10 and a half. It's 12 and a half. No, wow. You are going to be surprised. I said ten and a half. It's twelve and a half. Now that's too high. Come on. That's stupid. I'm going to have to bet the Panthers again. I don't do it. Don't you dare. Why are they doing this to me?

Wait. Let's look at what they do on the road. Are they that much worse on the road? They must be terrible on the road. The Panthers, I feel like they're do on the road. Are they that much worse on the road? They must be terrible on the road. The Panthers, I feel like they're better on the road. Well, they lost that. They went to Cincinnati and lost by 21, right? All right, that wasn't great.

I guess they lost by three to the Falcons. They lost by 14 to the Rams, and nobody loses to the Rams. Yeah, not that great. None of this info is making me feel better. I guess they lost by three to the Giants I don't know is that all they're for

I don't know can you give Steve Wilks and PJ Walker this many points I don't know yeah really what are we talking about

that's a lot should the Ravens be favored by 12 and a half over anyone in the league that's gigantic that's I mean that's like

that's one of the top three spreads this year also the Panthers can get garbage time touchdowns that's stupid. That's one of the top three spreads this year. Also, the Panthers can get garbage time touchdowns. That's stupid. That line's too high. All right. Good luck. So we have a Steelers-Bengals game in Pittsburgh

that might actually turn out to be a good game because TJ Watt came back today. Fitzpatrick missed because of appendicitis, but he's back next week. And when that Steelers defense has all their guys, it's actually a pretty good defense. Pickett's not horrific. He's,

I wouldn't say he's good, but he's somewhere like what? Two, three levels below mediocre. It's still passable. Better than Mason Rudolph. That could get you all pro this year if you're two or three levels below Meteor.

Right. Division rivalry. Tomlin's had some success against the Bengals over the years, I'm pretty sure. And the Steelers are good at home and they'll be fired up for this game. I'm not sure about

the Bengals' offensive line on the road. I do think they're going to be favored. I have the Bengals by two and a half in Pittsburgh. Ooh, I get this. I said five and a half, and it's four and a half, so I was closer by a point. But, I mean, this was, you remember,

this was the first game of the year, that crazy overtime game where the Steelers won in Cincinnati. These are three-point games. We have to start looking at these. So we got to start looking at these, but we have to start looking at the revenge factor, right? Because the Panthers cashed in on the revenge factor against the Falcons with that stupid game that was taken away from them because DJ Moore took his helmet off, right?

Maybe some of these, maybe that's a different way, or is that too much information? Those more analytics that we should just forget about. I'm not listening. I'm going back to the basics. I'm doing no research at all. I'm just going to make sure nobody's hurt and this is too many points.

This will be a three-point game and that's it. I don't need to do anything else. We know this is a three-point. AFC North in Pittsburgh, this will be a three-point game. I think the line goes down to three and a half. They are going to struggle to score 20 every week. The Steelers. Their defense will keep

them in there, but they I don't see them scoring more than 20 a lot the rest of the way. Well, with no chase, if Chase doesn't play in this game, I don't know if the Bengals are going to exactly have a ton of fire. TJ Watt destroyed the Bengals.

We watched that game. Remember that? He had like five sacks in that game. Yeah. Yeah, that's true. All right. The Poop Fecta. Four matchups of the Poop Fecta this week.

First one is Eagles-Colts. This is Indianapolis. And the Colts are going to be massive underdogs. And I think one of the trends that has happened this year is that the massive home underdogs seem to be covering, what, two-thirds of the time? Yeah, almost. Something like that. Yeah, any home dog that's four points and up. This one will be double figures.

I think it's going to be Eagles by 10.5 in Indianapolis. Well, you're closer than I was. I said, oh no, well you're not. I said seven. It's eight and a half. Look at that. I stole that from you.

The Eagles are dying to be teased. And they'll be coming off a short week too and traveling. You got to go and watch the Jeff Saturday speech. It's, it's awesome. He gives this awesome speech where I'm watching. I'm like,

God, why didn't I factor this into the whole first game? Um, how proud he is. We're so tough. And then he brings in the offensive coordinator. Who's never called a game before this game. And this guy comes in and you're expected this speech.

And he can like barely put two sentences together. It's just like, oh my God, this guy's the offensive coordinator. He can't talk in public. And then they throw it to Jim Irsay and Jim Irsay comes in over the top and he gives a speech. It's like fantastic.

I loved it. Well, Jeff Saturday is a polished TV guy, right? Like if you brought your friend in, if you brought Jacoby in, who I know listens to this podcast and roots for me. I'm sorry. I don't know if I'm going to fall short again.

He does root for you. No, he does. But he would be good, right? In the press conference. Like, oh, I don't care what kind of experience he has. He knows what he's talking about. He can put together three sentences, you know,

and not, not, not be thanking Jesus the whole time or whatever these guys do. It'd be great. Well, Johnny bananas always gives good toast on the challenge. Maybe he should be a head coach. He just come in.

He'd just be good at the post game and the pregame and, and he delegate the rest of the way. Next poop factor. This game is horrible. I'm not going to try not to watch any of this. Saints at home against the Rams. Wow. Is this a bad game?

Yeah. No Cooper Cup. I gave up on the line. I gave up on the line. I said, pick them. How do they know who's quarterback for what's going on? I have Saints by two and a half. You get it.

It's Saints by three. But is that without Stafford? Or does it even matter? That's going to be that come. It wasn't that good at Wolford. I try to get, you know, I know we got excited about Colt, my boy. And then McSorley came in and he wasn't bad. And then Colt McCoy came back in and we get caught up in the Ewing theory. And sometimes we sound stupid. We end up saying like, oh, Huntley's better than Lamar

Jackson or Mike White's better than Zach Wilson. But these guys really did look like they knew how to run this offense, right? Yeah. The cards were one of the few bets I won today. As soon as I found out Kyler wasn't playing, I'm just like, I'm in, I'm blind in on Colt McCoy. Who's probably won like three of his last 20 starts. I just don't think, I think the Kyler thing is just malodorous in Arizona.

I don't think he gets along with the coach. What does that mean? I'm going to look it up. What does that mean? Malodorous. I think there's a little stench with the Kyler. I, I think if he didn't sign that contract,

they would have either traded him or they'd be trying to get out of that deal after the year. But I don't know. I watched the game today. That certainly seemed like the cards came to play today. That's for sure. That's a good word. I like that word. Malodorous?

You like that? You can borrow that. Smelling very unpleasant. Yeah. Yeah. That's how I felt about Kyler this season. Kyler's reached a point where a year and a half ago

in our Keeper League, I protected him at like, what, 15 bucks or 12 bucks? No, you bid on the Jets for 15 bucks. No, no, no. This is a year and a half ago. Okay. Is Kyler starting for any fantasy team the rest of the way? I don't see a scenario.

Isn't he still good for like 50 yards rushing a game? No, he's not. He doesn't run like that anymore. And he throws picks and he doesn't throw for like 200, 300 yards. I'm telling you, he's like the 21st quarterback this year in fantasy, something like that anymore. And he throws picks and he doesn't throw for like two, three hundred yards. I'm telling you, he's like the 21st quarterback this year in fantasy, something like that. He's like QB 21. I never know what these guys, I mean Aaron Rodgers

isn't one you would start either, so I guess you're right. Well, you started Tom Brady in one of our leagues. He runs he runs okay at 60, 36, 30, 100, 42. He's around 50 I did talk but Brady I think is like second in yards I mean

they come three at a time but if you look at his stats I think only Josh Allen was ahead of him or borrow was ahead of him Washington's at Houston I think Washington's can be favored by two and a half and I'm not going to watch this game either. Oh, you got that exactly right.

I said three and a half. So we tied? Let's count this up. Three, four, five, six, seven, one, two, three. I won the last two. We are tied. And there are three left. You're going to be right.

I got one exactly, and then two I was off by like two and a half points. Well, the last Poop Factor game is Denver hosting the Vegas Raiders. This is really one of those great matchups. The team that can't stay out of their own way and can't win a close

game going against a team that can't stay out of their way and can't win a close game. And I don't know what's going to happen. But I'm going to give the Broncos three points for being at home and I'm going to say Broncos by three. Damn, that's the one I needed to beat you on. We were tied. It's exactly three. And now you're

going to take these next two. I don't know if I will. Sunday night, Chiefs-Chargers. Nice one. It's in LA, which doesn't matter because there'll be more Chiefs fans than Chargers fans there I don't know what's going on with this Chargers team this year

but it doesn't seem like they can put 20 points up to save their life and I'm going to go high I'm going to say Chiefs by 7 that's amazing I you really think it's like I don't know I had four and a half and I thought that was generous,

but it is seven. And this is the first game. And we talk about it and we joke about it, but this is the first game where they've actually said there is not only is there not a home field advantage, we're given the chiefs, the two, two points advantage.

I think, I really think that's going on seven points. Well, I think they just, I think they treat it like a neutral field thing, right? This game might as well be in Munich or London or Mexico City. Does it matter where it is?

No, but I think it's going the other way. I think they're like, oh, there's going to be red jerseys everywhere. So let's give the Chiefs a two-point benefit from what would be a neutral game. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Chiefs are just that much better than the Chargers. But the Chiefs fans travel. I don't want anyone to throw to.

Yeah. I would guess if it was in Kansas City, I would have guessed seven and a half. So it's like a half point difference. That's what I mean. It doesn't really matter. It's like, it's so strange. But he's got to get one of those guys back. He can't throw these guys all the time.

Who is he throwing to? Carter and... Everett wasn't even there. I know, but on the Chiefs side, Juju won't play next week. He got almost knocked out. Right, right, right. So maybe there'll be weapons missing on

both sides. You're right, though. It's a little tough without Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. It was a good game. They played already this year, right? It was close, wasn't it? They did. The Chargers looked like that was what, week two? Chargers looked like a better team? Monday night, 49ers at the

Cardinals. This will be our real full-fledged, oh my God, there's something really malodorous with this Kyler Murray situation game. I love the word. Thank you. He should really just put it on his jersey. Malodorous too. Just order those.

You know those aggregator sites that they do the headlines, they try to get people and it's like, NFL insider calls Kyler Murray malodorous. That's the headline.

Yeah. Maybe I pulled that off with the malodorous. You're Walter Cronkite all of a sudden. Yeah. I have the 49 off with the malodorous. You're Walter Cronkite all of a sudden. Yeah. I have the 49ers favored by four in Arizona. Here's the thing with this.

I know this game's in Mexico. You didn't know this game's in Mexico. And I still got it wrong. I still said three and a half, and it's six. So you get it. And you win the week. No. This game's in Mexico City. Oh, yeah, I did get it. Yeah, you's six. So you get it and you win the week. No, this game's in Mexico city. Oh yeah,

I did get it. Yeah. You went. Yeah. You get it. This game's in Mexico city on a, on a Monday night. It's in Mexico city.

Yeah. Well, remember they tried to do that a few years ago and then they said the field wasn't ready and it was a weird thing and, they played somewhere else. Yeah. It's in Mexico city Monday night. No,

you, I don't think another one, two, three, four, five, six. Yeah. I went, night. You win. I don't think another... One, two, three, four, five, six. Yeah, I won. Yeah, go ahead. I don't think it matters for the cards if they're playing in Mexico City or Arizona, does it? It's like they lose at home all the time.

They don't really have a home field advantage. No. No. What do we take? I guess the Niners will. The Niners will. They should take care of Colt McCoy if that's the case. I know we got excited about Colt McCoy, but he's going to have trouble

back there. There's a lot of live dogs next week. Steelers, home for the Bengals. That Colts line will end up being too high, home for the Eagles. Chargers, home for the Chiefs, getting a ton of points.

Then the Vikes, apparently, are going to be a home duck. That's outrageous. Not good for you. That is not good for you at all. I don't like it. That was a malodorous performance by me. You're 6-2-3 now. By the way, that's the only thing I can win this year is picking the spreads.

I just can't bet them. All right, let's do Parent Corner. Today's Parent Corner is brought to you by Simply Safe Home Security, a natural component of raising children into responsible, independent adults, is entrusting them with greater levels of autonomy. At the same time, there's a little responsibility when they're younger. You are in charge of your house, your apartment, your condo, wherever you live. You got to keep them safe. Right now, SimpliSafe is offering listeners 50% off their new security

system that can help lighten your burden and create a safety net for your kids' growing responsibilities. So even if the tub overflows or the pizza rolls burn in the oven, SimplySafe's environmental sensors for fires and floods will notify you before a mistake causes thousands in damages. Okay, so this weekend, my childhood buddy Joe and his family came to visit. And so on Saturday, we all take a walk to the beach. And of course, we bring a football because why would you go to the beach if you don't have a football? So we're throwing it around. And my nine-year-old, Harris, and his cousin, my godson, Michael, who's eight, they challenge us to a game to five or 30. They learned that points scored, touchdowns are six. So they were keeping score by six.

So anyway, my middle son, Jack, has to be the automatic quarterback for this two-on-two game. And it's two 51-year-olds versus an eight and a nine-year-old. And just so you know where I stand, I could still beat Harrison in a race, but barely, right? And he takes pride in the fact that he's close with me. So they go down, they score. He gets free somehow. I get tripped up in the sand. And then we're on offense and my middle son throws to me, Jack,

and I turn the wrong way and Harrison gets it and it's a pick six. And I was like, holy shit. Now we're down 12-0 or 2-0, right? Game's to five. And we tie it up at four and pass to me. I get free about seven yards. I got about 30 yards left and he touches me. It's two hand touch and he gets me one hand on the back

and then I go free and then he gets the other one and I go and I go the rest of the way. And I was like, no, that's it. You got one and one. He's like, I got two at the same time. And now he's screaming at me on the beach and tears everywhere. He's like a mini you. Oh, that's it. Yeah. Oh, he's such a bad loser. And I was like, no. And then I'm thinking about it. I'm like, did he get me with two? It was so close. It was one of those things like, you know, or maybe he did get me with two. And I was thinking I am so goddamn out of breath right now.

I'm sticking to my guns. We won this game. I was like, nope, you didn't get me. And that's it. Simmons, I swear to God, up until this was Saturday, Sunday night now, 830, 10 minutes before I go on, he's barely talking to me. Now, I made it a lot worse. I'd be like, come on, man.

Let me give you a hand. Just like you gave me one hand on my back yesterday like i'm really rubbing it in the last 36 hours whatever it is but i don't know what to do i'm such a bad dad because i might have also cheated and uh and i'm rubbing it in and my wife is not happy the way i handled it but i just knew i was gonna have a heart attack so i need to score that fifth touchdown there. So at least you won. Did you cover? Yeah, we didn't cover. I thought we'd win like 5-1. He was literally pounding the sand for like an hour afterwards and still mad at me. Well, there's three stages of the father-son

thing. The first one is when you're wrestling them and it gets to the point where they realize that your balls are their biggest advantage, where they can either kick you or punch you in the balls. That's like age six. And once they know the balls are in play, in a way, that's an advantage for them. So you have to deal with that.

The second one is like what age it could be nine, ten, eleven depending on what kind of shape you're in, where in a race, they're kind of not as far away from you as you think. Like you should, you're not dusting them anymore in a race. And it's like, Oh, at some point, this kid's going to be able to beat me in a foot race. That's depressing. And then that last one is the stage I'm, I've been in with Ben for two years where we're never going to get in a fight, but I do think he feels like he either could take me or it would be...

It would at least be like the Adesanya fight last night where it's going to go five rounds and he might be able to get the knockout late. But, you know, those are the three stages. And then the fourth stage,

I guess, would be where they could just obviously beat the shit out of us when we're super old. Right. That'll be bad. Yeah. Yeah, I think the third stage is like an officer and a gentleman, right?

Like Richard Gere's like hopping around. He's got the skills. Come on, Mayo. He's got martial this and that. I'm going to have to, now I'm going to have to be the one kicking you in the nuts illegally. Right. We have to cheat to win. Yeah. That's the stage I'm going to have to be in. I would be better in a fight,

but I would definitely probably have to cheat and like gouge him in the eye or something. That's what I'm doing with football, with sand football. So there you go. My parent corner involves your child, Archie. Oh, I know this. Go ahead. Yeah, your wife and my wife, they hung out.

And my daughters, Zoe and your son, Archie, are seniors in high school, but have known each other since they were like six months old. We have pictures of them. Mommy and me days, yeah. Yeah, they used to have little mommy and me dates, stuff like that. So our wives decided we're going to take the kids out and go to a Charlie Puth concert, which apparently they did on Wednesday night. And they double dated and they had a really good time. And of course, Zoe and Carrie put on a show by getting into some sort of mother-daughter thing.

It's just so funny. The mother-son thing. What do you mean? They got in some sort of argument near the end of the night about something. The mother-son thing, the son can do no wrong for the mother, right? We get annoyed by the sons.

But the mother-son thing, it's son can do no wrong for the mother, right? We get annoyed by the sons. But the mother-son thing, it's just they're always going to make excuses and it's our little guy and they're always going to offend them. The mother-daughter, they're just like, they're fucking natural enemies sometimes. Like Zoe just goes into Carrie's closet

and starts, you know, grab shoes she likes and doesn't tell her. Uses our bathroom. And it's just, it's like the roommate my wife never wanted. And they just go at it. So during the concert, apparently, your wife was saying how,

oh my God, Archie's going to be going to college next year. I'm going to miss him so much. She's doing that whole thing. I know, it's ridiculous. Aren't you going to miss Zoe? And Carrie's like, yeah, some parts. No way.

She told you this? No, she's like, you know, I'm not going to miss having the roommate I never wanted, but I'm going to miss, like, I love her, but, you know, it's going to be great. It's just so funny. The mother-son

versus the mother-daughter thing is just fascinating. Eventually, it turns into the Nancy Meyers movie where it's like her father or the bride or whatever with the mom and the daughter. I think they're at the stage now that age 17 with the mom, it's just...

Right. It's just how it is. Meanwhile, your wife's already crying. Your son, he's nine months away. He hasn't even picked a college, much less gone away to college. And your wife's already in tears about it. You wouldn't believe it. It's getting crazy.

We're going to have to go see counselors or something. Because it sounds like this is going to happen in August. Please, it's November. Let me enjoy football at least. I'm an idiot too. But maybe Charlie Puth could come up with a song that brings everyone together and heals all this pain. Charlie Puth concert. Apparently they sang the song

from Fast and Furious. He sang it near the end. My wife said it was quite a moment. Yeah, they loved it. Yeah, you don't have to say where you're going, but you're doing a college visit next weekend. Right? You're going somewhere. You're going on a trip. You don't have to say where you're going, but you're doing a college visit next weekend. Right? I'll tell you.

You're going on a trip. You don't have to say where it is, but you're doing a little trip. Well, you can say what it is. I'm just, I didn't want to put you on the spot, but you have a little father-son college trip. I'll tell you after we're done. Yeah, we're going to,

this is like his top choice and we're going to see a football game and I'll be doing guest aligns from a hotel room in the Pacific Northwest. So it'll be fun, I hope. And your wife's going to just be sobbing

the entire time. Yeah, I guess so. This is so close. It feels so real that he's visiting a college. She just has to hibernate for the next seven months. It's going to be so bad.

Meanwhile, you have two more kids. It's not like you have two other boys. I try to say that in like a half-joking way. It's like, this is why we had have two more kids. It's not like you have two other boys. I try to say that in a half-joking way. It's like, this is why we had a lot of kids. These don't matter as

much. But then I just come off seeming crass and not caring. All right. That was Parent Corner. Today's Parent Corner is brought to you by Simply Safe Home Security. As parents, we want our children to become autonomous and responsible with a good head on their shoulders that keeps them out of trouble,

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Visit simplisafe.com. There is no safe like SimpliSafe. So before we go, at least these are the odds on FanDuel. Buffalo is still the favorite, but it's now plus 380. Remember the first few weeks of the season? Remember their AFC East odds? Weren't they like 20 to one favorites?

There was something crazy, right? Yeah, you had to apologize for not being on them totally. And then now that's the thing. We should just stick to our guns. Eventually, the Raiders and the Saints and all these teams will be good again. Maybe I should rerun that clip from August when I was like, are we sure the Bills should be considered to be this good? And now it looks like I know what I'm talking about

compared to everything that's happened the last few weeks. I do have odds. Odds have jumped up if you want to hear them. Is Allen still the favorite or is it Mahomes? No, he's third. Mahomes is first? Mahomes plus 140. I mean, so this could be the last week we see him with a plus.

Yeah. If he lights it up on that night game against the Chargers. Yeah. Jalen Hurts plus 250. Josh Allen 5-1. 2-9-1, Lamar 12, and then Burrow 20. What was Tyreek Hill on that list? He's 50. He's the first non-quarterback.

It goes Burrow 20, Cousins 25, and then Tyreek Hill 50. Well, from a Super Bowl standpoint, from the odds, your team's 15 to 1. I'm trying to look at all these long shots. I don't... Titans 28 to 1. Chargers 34 to 1. Seattle's 50 to 1. Pats 50 to 1.

60 to 1. The Jets are 60 to 1. Packers are 75 to 1. I can't see any of those. I don't know. There's just no value anymore. This goes back to what I said at the top. There's no value anymore. They're so smart

at how to protect themselves with the Lions. So like Miami at 17 to one, if they were able to get a two seed, right? If they stole the AFC East from Buffalo and they were two seed, then round one, they're in the 2-7 game in their home.

Even then, 17-1. I don't know if those are good odds. Because you could just bet them game by game and probably get better odds. So that's the eighth best team, the Dolphins. I don't think there's anyone

outside those eight that could win it. I guess Tampa's below them, right? But one, two, three, four, five, six. You and I, for some reason, you and I both don't want to punt Cincinnati yet. And I don't know what's keeping us around. But we probably should.

Well, maybe if Jamar Chase comes back and added like 70 pounds and can play guard, that'd feel a lot better. If he could play three positions at once. Yeah, I don't... I don't see anybody else. Well, we'll see what happens. Eagles at 5-1 might be the best bet. They're going to be the one seed.

They're going to have two home games in Philly that they'll be, what, minus 350 in the first game and minus 220 in the second game, and then you can go game by game after. All right, cuz, how are you doing in NBA betting, all right? I'm doing all right.

I'm just rooting against Portland every night because that's our big one. That parlay with them and Charlotte to not make the playoffs. But you know what? I went big on Luka and I went big on Giannis.

And I'm like, it's got to be one of those two, right? For MVP. Yeah. I I'm like, it's gotta be one of those two, right? For MVP. Yeah. I gotta say, I'm not just saying this because it's my team, but Tatum has...

You have a vote too. Yeah, you can't... No, no, no. I'm not allowed to bet on it. I just think Tatum's in the conversation so far and that might not last. Really?

If you're just saying first 13 games, I think Tatum's probably... It's either Tatum or Luka, but the Celtics have by far the best offense in the league right now. Tatum's the biggest piece of that, whereas Luka has the best stats, but you can't say Dallas' offense is as good as Boston's. So there's at least an argument, but Luka's like 35-8-8 every game.

So statistically, he's going to have the case. You pointed it out. Everybody's got 30 points. So I guess I shouldn't be too locked in on just two players. Everybody scores 30 points a game now. Yeah. For the people listening, I had that tweet today about there's seven guys averaging 30 a game right now. Crazy.

Which is only 79 in the history league. But the Celtics are 10 and 3. The thing with Dallas, they're 7 and 5. So for MVP, Luka's got to get to 48 wins, but I'm not sure his team's good enough to be able to pull that off. We bet Portland and Charlotte will not make the playoffs, right? That was the bet. Yes, that was it.

Then Portland won their first five or something. No, but I still feel like we're in that because we just need Portland to be in the playing round, and then we need them to 7-10. But who dropped? Everybody's having a ball making fun of the Lakers, but we need that team

to come in sixth. Don't we for something like this? Well, Utah's a drop candidate. The Pelicans defensively are pretty lousy. So maybe they drop out and

then the Clippers Kawhi is just wearing street clothes. So I like, I gotta say, I really like the Kings team and

I think they're going to be in that, in that playing mix and maybe even a little bit higher. I'm in on that. Yeah, no, but

they're six and six, but they're like, they had three bad end of the game losses where they could easily be like nine. Like to me, I don't, I think them and Portland are even talent-less. The Portland fans are getting mad.

You got to jump on with us. For what? You got to jump on with us next time we do Race to 10. We did the 15 games last Monday. We went 10 and five. House jumped on. We won money. JJ was on. We won money.

JJ was on. It was fun. Next time for sure. I'm in for the next time. You've been for 10 minutes and you're done. Yeah. All right. Say hi to everybody.

Good to see you. Good job on you. Good job on you, Billy. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. As always, I will see you on the Prestige TV feed. If you haven't

watched White Lotus yet, go watch it. Then listen to me and Joanna Robinson break it down. I can see you on the Rewatchables feed tomorrow as well. Blowout is the third installment of 90 November. That is happening as well. And I'll see you on this feed on Tuesday.