The Bill Simmons Podcast - An NBA Midseason Power Poll, Allen Vs. Mahomes, and Divisional-Round Million-Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager

Episode Date: January 18, 2024

The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares his midseason NBA Power Poll, in which he ranks all 30 NBA teams (1:48). He is then joined by Peter Schrager of Fox Sports and NFL Network to discuss all four NFL divisional-round games (45:53) before making the Million-Dollar Picks for the divisional round (1:38:38). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, an NBA power poll and a lot of NFL next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And

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I've been putting up shorts. Sometimes I just walk around LA and I think of something and I send a video and then all of a sudden they do jump cuts and then we just put it up. I think of something and I send a video and then all of a sudden they do jump cuts and then we just put it up I've been having fun doing that so sometimes there's stuff that it's a dumb idea

or it's something in the moment but if you like that kind of stuff you can check out youtube.com slash Bill Simmons and that's where we put a lot of the clips from this podcast and the rewatchables full episodes as well

so there you go coming up on this podcast, I did a mid-season NBA power poll and tried to hit as many things as I possibly could in like a half hour. I think I pulled it off. And then Peter Schrager came back because we did well on Million Dollar Picks last week.

So we're going to talk about all the round two games. And then at the end, I'm going to do Million Dollar picks. Round two, NFL playoffs. It's all coming up next. First, our friends from Projet. All right. It is the mid-season NBA Power Poll. Can't believe we're here. Taping this at 10.30 on a Thursday morning. Hopefully there will be no more trades.

We're going to go from 30 to 1. Worst team to best team. First category is the dregs. We have five teams that are absolutely terrible that have a minus nine or net or worse, which is kind of impossible. It reminds me of the cocaine era in the 80s when there were just like five, six, seven,

just horrible teams every single year. Going in order. Number 30, Detroit. They're four and 37. Number 29, Washington. They're seven and 32. Number 28, Charlotte. Eight and 30. Number 29, Washington, they're seven and 32. Number 28, Charlotte, eight and 30. Number 27, Portland, 11 and 29. And that might be 11 and 59 in about 30 games. And then last

but not least, San Antonio, they're number 26 for me, seven and 33. I want to talk about Detroit quickly. Monte Williams, $80 million. I think it's a main reason why Spolstra ended up getting 120 from Miami because he was like, they gave that guy 80 million. I'm at least twice as good as that guy. The Jaden Ivey year that kind of unfolded for the first six weeks of the season, where he didn't have the ball nearly enough. They were playing Killian Hayes in a ball handling spot over him. He was kind of standing in the side

even though he can't really shoot. Monty should have to give back like 20 million of the money just for how he treated Jaden Ivey for about six weeks there. Now Ivey's getting going. They have some pieces of like, I got to say,

I have not crossed them off my league pass yet. I still kind of enjoy watching them. Isaiah Stewart came back. The Marvin Bagley trade was hilarious to me. This is one of my favorite NBA things when they give somebody a stupid contract over the summer. I mean, it was like 13 million a year. Who are you competing against for Marvin Bagley? And then six months later, they do a trade where they have to give second round picks to get rid of the Bagley thing. And then to the media, it's like, well, you know, now we have $60 million in cap space. For who?

You're the Pistons. You suck. Nobody wants to play for you. And you just had to attach second round picks for a stupid signing that you should have done in the first place. How does everybody have a job there? Like, what else do you need to do to get fired? Not that I'm advocating for people to get fired, but everyone in the Pistons should get fired.

They should have dealt Bogdanovich last year. He is one of the best pieces now. And this is going to be ring around the roses. There's only a couple of teams that need wings. He's the perfect price range. He's in the 20s now. Bruce Brown's on Toronto. There's guys out there in Philly.

Philly's probably the biggest one that's going to be going after a swing. Somebody make him between 15 and 20, but Miami's probably the biggest one that's going to be going after like a swing somebody making between 15 and 20 but Miami's in the mix like they should deal Bogdanovich now before a couple

of these guys go I don't know what they're doing if I was a Pistons fan I would be out of my mind with how this season has gone because they

they're paying the most money the coach who doesn't know what he's doing alright next oh on number 27, Portland, quickly. I'll buy your scoot stock if you're selling it,

but it does make you wonder, should they have just traded the number three pick and got an impact guy and kept Dame and kept Grant and actually tried to be good because the West is so wide open? So I went down that thought road and I just couldn't come up with what the trade was. The number three pick for Ananobi,

I just don't think Toronto would have done it. I think they valued him. Jalen Brown, Boston probably doesn't do it. Maybe Siakam. The value of that number three pick was somewhere around those guys. Did those guys make a difference? I think they probably ended up in the right place.

We'll see with Scoot. But it just is an interesting slide indoors for them. All right. Next category is the year from hell. That's obviously Memphis. They are somehow 15 and 25, even though every single thing has gone wrong for them. They did stumble into this Gigi Jackson guy

who I had never heard of, so I knew he was the second round pick. Did some research on him though, and he was the number one overall guy in the class of 2023. And he was supposed to go to North Carolina and he reclassified and ended up in the class of 2022. Goes to South Carolina for a year.

I guess the season didn't go that well because they ended up going 45th. This seems to happen over and over again. These pedigree guys, Derek live was a little bit like this on the maps to these guys that are like clearly top five, top three, maybe even top one in their high school class,

like ninth, 10th, 11th grade, maybe even in 12th grade. Then, then they, something weird happens to them in college for a year. They go to the wrong team or they get hurt.

And then all of a sudden they fall into like the thirties and forties. GG Jackson. I'm watching this guy. With that said, Memphis is very close to being on my league pass cross off list, which right now includes Washington, Brooklyn, Memphis, maybe unless Gigi Jackson turns into a Younger Meyer Stoudemire. And I got to say, I can't watch San Antonio. I know they have Wemby. I know he is an absolute unicorn. I know he does stuff every game. But guess what? That's what YouTube is for. That's what Twitter is for. That's what your friend's texting you a video is for. I don't have to watch the Spurs games to get a Wemby fix. That team is a disgrace. I can't believe that's the team they're putting around Wemby. Honestly, I can't believe it. What are you doing?

You have like a once-in-a-generation dude, and the roster he has is the worst roster in the league. And they don't even really have cap space, which I don't understand. Anyway, Wemby, if you ever do anything good, guess what? I'll see you on social media. I'm not watching this first. Next category, trade machine mercenaries.

Well, Toronto's already traded inanobi and Siakam. And they've turned those guys into Quickly and RJ Barrett and Bruce Brown. And three first-round picks, including two in this upcoming draft that everybody seems to absolutely hate and is comparing to 2013 and 2000. I still didn't mind the trade because Siakam was going to leave. Ananobi's doing really well in the Knicks but I like what they got back they had to change their identity they're 16-25 right now

can they flip Bruce Brown or will Bruce Brown be really fun in the Siakam role I love Bruce Brown we'll get to him later should they trade Purtle Brown's at 22 million Purtle's at 19.5 million if they trade Brown

they can't put anything else with it but they could do stuff like they could trade Brown to the Knicks for four days expiring and one first, two first, whatever. They could trade him for Andrew Wiggins and some sort of pick swap. I keep saying this, Andrew Wiggins is from Canada. Or keep Bruce Brown or this is what pisses me off. I know he's going to end up in Philadelphia. Can somebody else trade for him before he ends up in Philadelphia? It's super easy for Philadelphia to get him. They got Marcus Morris. They can add one more contract.

Just take Bruce Brown back. He's the perfect guy for the Sixers if they don't have to give up anything in their core. Ultimate glue guy. I loved what he did on Denver last year. I hope and pray that Philly doesn't get Bruce Brown. Next trade machine mercenary is Brooklyn at number 23. They're 16 and 24.

And then last but not least, Atlanta at 17 and 23. I think the James Harden for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, a 23 first and a future 27 first top eight protected is edging up the ladder of worst deals of the last 10 years. I look at their team. They don't have their pick because it's going to Houston. Their keepers, Mikael Bridges and probably Cam Johnson. And there's a little pricey.

Their trade assets are Finney Smith, O'Neill, Claxton and and Dinwiddie. And there's a little hesitation like, what are we? We don't have our pick. You don't want to tank. You know what? The move is to be sellers. You can't even, the pick's gone. They already went through this with the Tatum pick and the Brown pick. Just the draft sucks. Just trade. Trade Finney Smith. He's at 13, 14, and 15. Trade O'Neal. Maybe trade Nick Claxton. Maybe somebody wants Dinwiddie. Get rid of all these dudes. I think they should trade Claxton to OKC because OKC desperately needs a big guy.

Flip Finney Smith to Philly for a pick. Send O'Neal out for a pick. Just bottom out. Your roster stinks, and it's not fun to watch you guys. So don't worry about that. You don't have a pick. And then Atlanta, who knows what's going to happen with Murray? Everybody knows he's been available for a month. I think it'd be hilarious if he went back to San Antonio,

which would be, I think the first ever return to sender trade we've had. They gave Atlanta, gave up 25, 27 first, 26 pick swap and a future Charlotte first, plus an expiring for Murray. Can they get 70% of that back? If you're San Antonio, you're feeling good. Set this guy away for a couple years, got Wimby down, but now he's coming back. I don't know where he ends up, and I'm not positive how good he is

because I haven't loved how he's looked at Atlanta, and I don't know whether it's Trey Young's fault or it's the wrong team or what's going on, but the guy who used to be a defensive stud, the eye test is not backing that up this year. So I don't know what happens with him. KFC was saying trade Trey Young to San Antonio for picks. I kind of like that idea.

At least it would get me to watch San Antonio. Next category is Yikes. Golden State just had a terrible tragedy this week too. They lost their assistant coach. It's just like one thing after another with that team. I have no idea what they're going to do at the trade deadline because Wiggins has almost given himself negative value where you have to attach something just to get rid of him. That's how

dark it's gotten for Wiggins. Kaminga, I talked about this on the podcast last week. He made his own bed two weeks ago when he was complaining to the press when he's 21 years old. He's done jack shit in his career. You shouldn't be talking to the press. Settle down, Kaminga.

Klay's on an expiring and you're stuck because he's a statue guy and he's literally a statue if you watch him. He just doesn't have the same mobility. And I don't really know what the move is. And they just actually feel done to me. I don't think there's any coming back. I don't think there's a scenario

where they could crack the top four, upset somebody in round one. I just don't see it. I think they don't see it. Got me thinking. What happens if Charlotte calls them and Godfather offers them for Steph? And I know Golden State will say no.

I know he's one of the most untradeable guys we've had this century. But let's talk it out. What if they offered LaMelo and they offered Hayward's expiring and they offered them four unprotected first for Steph Curry? Now you'd say, why did

Charlotte do that? Well, Charlotte's been a disaster as a basketball franchise, basically in any incarnation of it. Steph Curry from Charlotte, they bring back the hero. Now you have a building base. He becomes, maybe you promise him down the road, wink, wink, you'll get a piece of this team when you retire. And you just make a Mr. Charlotte. And then if you're Golden State, you get a reboot with Lomelo. The guy should take it anyway in a bunch of firsts. Maybe it's not four firsts. Maybe it's three firsts. I was trying to figure out it's a good who said no, who would say no. Also, what's the offer that would make Golden State at least take a meeting? And I think it would be Lomelo and 4First.

They're not trading Steph. So when this gets aggregated, because this is the new world we live in where they just aggregate a piece of something you said and not the actual context of it, I do not think the Warriors are going to trade Steph Curry. My point is, if Charlotte calls them and Godfather offers them for Steph Curry, I think they have a meeting at least. Where the hell are they going? What are they going to do with Steph Curry for the next five years of his career? It really feels like this is a mess. So anyway, that's how bad it's gotten for the Warriors on making up Steph Curry trades. Next category, works in progress. Houston is 19 and 21 and the arrow is pointing down. Chicago is 19 and 23 and the arrow's pointing down. Chicago is 19-23, 19-23, and the arrow's pointing sideways.

They are still minus 2.6 net rating. I have the Lakers at 18. They are 20 and 21. And those are the three. I'm not positive where things are going with those teams. The Lakers have the pedigree, but to be 500 for half of the season when your two best guys have been healthy the entire time

is not a good sign. One thing that's funny with LeBron, I know we've talked about how they've been in the 20s offensive rating five of the six years he's been in the Lakers. And you hear people talk about, oh, they got to get shooting. They got to get this guy.

They got to get that guy. Well, there's a couple of things that nobody ever mentions with this. They're paying two max guys a combo of like a hundred million dollars a year when there's a salary cap. Really hard to have three guys. Look at what Phoenix did. Phoenix was able to cram the third max guy. And now they're in, you know, God only knows what's going to happen with that team, especially anytime Beal gets hurt. They just look like a mess.

So you're going to have to hit on the fringes and you're going to have some flawed guys. You're not going to end up with Kyrie Irving. You're going to end up with D'Angelo Russell. That's the way it goes when you're paying two $50 million guys. What's interesting is, especially the Laker fans I know, they just got to get some shooting around LeBron. Well, they had shooting around LeBron. Go look at the three-point leaders.

Beasley, he's 48% from three this year. He's second in the league. He's making three a game for the Bucs. He was wasting away on their bench last year. They had Caruso. They won a title with him. He's at 41.5%. They let him go. KCP, they traded him for fucking Russell Westbrook. He's at 40.7% threes this year, 1.5 a game. They had Malik Monk. He's one of the best six men in the league. They had him on the team and had an unhappy season with him. And then he went to Sacramento and was immediately good.

Even right now, Russell, 40.7%. Prince is at 38.5. Maybe we're not asking the right questions. If these shooters are going on to thrive outside of LA, why is that? What's going on? Is it hard to play in the fishbowl of the Lakers? Is it hard to play where AD and LeBron,

it's their team and everybody else are these interchangeable dudes that end up in trade rumors the moment anything's going wrong. Look at Austin Reeves. He just signed this big, I think they gave him 56 million for four years. And the moment things go wrong, it's his fault. He's in every trade. And needless to say, he's not playing well. So I do wonder, and I don't think this is LeBron's fault, but it's the fishbowl that he brings. Some guys don't play that well in it. And then you're always looking at glass half empty instead of glass half full. And in this case, this team had good shooters. Malik Beasley's been an awesome offensive player this year. He didn't play last year. So what are they doing wrong?

I think is a more interesting question than what do they need. Let's take a break and then we'll do the other 17 teams. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, you got to win one game at a time. But when you bet the NFL playoffs on FanDuel, one game can mean a lot of wins. FanDuel, America's number one sports book, they have all your favorite bets. They have money line spread, futures, prop bets, whatever you got. We love to do million-dollar picks here on the BS Podcast, and we are going to do one boost and one same-game

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We'll see how it goes. But anyway, you can check out my Twitter feed. You can check out FanDuel because every day is an NFL playoff game practically right now. And they're giving you no sweat, same game parlays, which means when you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday. You'll get bonus bets back if your SGP doesn't win. But my Lions, my Lions SGP, hopefully we'll win. Visit Fanduel.com slash BS if you don't already have an account.

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Refund issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets expire seven days after receipt. Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gangs here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell

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No Franz. I'm not worried yet, but no Franz. You realize how Palo and Franz dependent they are. Suggs has been my personal role guy MVP until Bruce Brown ends up on an awesome team. But it'll be interesting to see if they decide, we're actually a little closer than people think. We're going to go make a move or just kind of play it cool for one more year. They do have some expirings and some stuff to trade.

I have no idea what they're going to do. We'll see when Franz comes back. But to me, this is probably a play-in team, unfortunately. Number 16, Utah. Will Hardy. He's got to be the coach of the year. I don't, that team was like a giant buffet table of food. And it was like a brunch buffet table.

So there's like some lunch on there and some breakfast and there's some fruit, but there's also oysters. And you're like, what the hell is this team? Am I supposed to put all this stuff on my plate? And none of it made sense. And then somehow he made sense with it. He now has Kessler on the bench, right? That doesn't make sense. Kessler is a really good young center, but for them, it makes sense. They play Sexton and Chris Dunn together. I didn't even know Chris Dunn was alive and Chris Dunn has been rejuvenated, but they moved everything around. I never thought

they were going to trade Markkinen, but all the lineup kind of rotation stuff they've done, the Celtics killed them. I have, unfortunately, every time I watch Utah, they play terribly or they underachieve. So I need to catch them on a good game. But I'll tell you this with Danny. I saw this with the Celtics.

He'll zag when you think he's going to zig, and he'll zig when you think he's going to zag. People were thinking he was going to trade for more picks. I actually think he'll use some of these picks and maybe try to get something, maybe use the Collins contract and attach a couple of picks to it and try to get an impact guy.

Would not surprise me. I see you, Danny H. Number 15 is Indiana. They're 23 and 17 and just made the big trade. Pascal Siakam. They traded Bruce Brown, who I thought played pretty well for them. And three first round picks. Two were this year. Neither of them is going to be an impactful pick. The 26 unprotected might be. The question is like, why do you do this? Why not just sign them in free agency? Well, the new NBA, you can only have two max contracts per team, basically. So they're saying, we want to use it. We have Hal Burton, who's one of the best guards in the

league. We have a really fun team to watch. We can upgrade from Bruce Brown to Siakam. And who else is going to pay Siakam $50 million a year? I think what's changed is in the old days, it's like, all right, big threes, big threes, big threes, big cities, the biggest teams getting the best guys. And now it's like there's 60 max contract spots, basically. Every team has two of them, including some of these teams that you wouldn't really pinpoint as being destination places. So Indiana's like, yeah, we'll trade for Siakam

and we're going to be able to re-sign him because where the hell else is he going to go? Listen, he's a 23 and 7 and 5 guy for the last five years. He's durable. He plays 36 minutes a game. I had him, we did the ringer 100. I think I had him 60th just because I think I was holding against him.

If he's the best bar in Toronto and there are nine games under 500, that's his fault. And that's the thing with Siakam. If he's your best guy, you're going to go 16 and 25. But if he's your second best guy and he's playing with Halliburton, I like that for him. When was the last time we saw him with a real point guard, like a slashing kick? It's like Kyle Lowry 30 pounds ago. So I like the trade for Indiana a little more than some people.

I saw Haral Bob on Twitter, wasn't a fan. I don't really care about the picks. The 26, maybe I care a little bit. I don't care about the picks this year. And Bruce Brown, he had a player option and could get out of there anyway. So I like the thought of we care about Halliburton. We care about what we this year. And Bruce Brown was, you know, he had a player option and could get out of there anyway. So I like the thought of, we care about Halbert and we care about what we're building here. Let's go get a real guy. So they did. I like to trade more for

Toronto though, just for the record. Number 14, Sacramento. They're 23-17 and they're oozing some sort of panic trade vibe. They're one of those teams that they can have an awesome game against somebody, but you feel like they're going to lose in the last two minutes.

Like the Phoenix comeback the other day was a perfect example. They're also like, Kevin Herter, you're making 16 million a year. Are you good or are you not good? Are you an eighth man or are you like a fourth man? What are you? Harrison Barnes, why are you making 17, 18, 19 for the next three years? Are you a ninth

man? Davion Mitchell, we spent a top 10 pick on you. Are you playable? It just feels like a trade where maybe they get one more big guy. Maybe they go get... They find Alex Caruso. That's a wait-and-see team for me. I want to see what their trade is. But when I say panic trade, dumb trade,

sometimes the worst trades are made by the teams that feel like they're a little closer than they are. To me, even if they added one more really good guy to this team, I still would not put them in the top four in the West. So I'd be careful, Sacramento. Number 13 is Phoenix. They're finally starting to look relatively Phoenix-y. I don't understand KD's clutch stuff at all. His clutch numbers are abominable. 36%, 27% from three. And it's been one of the reasons their record isn't better. And I don't know whether that he's just hitting a different point in his career

or maybe the team around him not awesome. What's crazy is they're getting this insane Grayson Allen year. And they've gotten pretty fairly healthy Nurkic. Like certainly more healthy than I thought he was going to be.

And they're still 22 and 18. So I think for them, I want to see what happens the next three weeks. You could tell me they're going to be 30 and 19 in see what happens the next three weeks. You could tell me there can be 30 and 19 in nine games and I'd believe it. You could tell me that could be 26 and 26 and 11 games and I'll believe it. We will see. I have no real interesting thoughts on Phoenix other than we will see. Next category, maybe one move away. The New York Knicks, they are now 24

and 17. I love the Ananobi trade for them. And it was one of those, I thought they won the trade when they made it just because they got the best guy in it. But when you watched it for like two games, you're like, oh my God, they totally won this trade. And what's cool about him, first of all, you're putting him with this crowd that's really going to appreciate what he brings to the table. So you're getting the best possible version of him, right? He's going to be like, not only playing for a new contract, which they probably agreed to already, but he's showing off for the new fans. The flexibility he gives them, like let's say they play Philly in round one, right?

Let's say it's like the 3-6 matchup, Philly versus the Knicks. Ananobi is the kind of guy you want to put on Embiid. People always think you guard Embiid with centers you want to put somebody smaller on him who's strong who can get up in his chest like the way Denver was playing him the other night was kind of stupid it didn't make sense to me like the Celtics will throw Drew Holiday

on him they'll throw Jalen Brown at him they'll throw Tatum at him and then they'll throw Horford at him and they'll give him different looks Ananobi is somebody that could guard literally everybody in the Sixers and then they'll throw Horford at them and they'll give them different looks. Ananobi is somebody that could guard literally everybody in the Sixers. And then they play Boston, same thing. So that trade was just a home run for them.

A really good one. And they still feel like one move away. I'll be interested to see if they can attach Randle and Picks to anything would be kind of the home run swing for them. Number 11 is Cleveland. For me, they are 24 and 15. They've won five straight. And then you look a little closer and it's like, oh, they beat Washington, Washington and San Antonio and Brooklyn and Chicago. Congratulations. They're

one in five against the Celts, Bucks and OKC in Denver. Not great. But they've also, they're nine and three without Mobley and without Garland. And it is interesting that Garland goes out and it solves some of the Mitchell-Garland stuff that I think we've all seen last season and this season. And just keeping an eye on that team because it's clear they have redundancies and maybe one too many guys, and they just feel two-for-one-ish to me

from a trade standpoint. 24 and 15 though, I would not, that's one of those where you look at the standings and you're like, wait, what? Cleveland's 24 and 15? I certainly don't feel like they're a threat. New Orleans is, they have 25 wins. They're number 10 on my list.

Their net rating is up to plus 4.7. And there are certain games, if you catch them on the right night, where they just have too much size and they just seem really big and overpowering. And you're like, holy shit, New Orleans. And then you can catch them two days later and they lose by 20

and they look completely discombobulated. This team's a work in progress. All of it's going to end Genzyme. And where is he in April? Is he healthy? Is he relatively in shape? I don't know. I don't even know what the trade is for them. We did this last time. It's like, what do they need? They have talent at every position. I don't know what the move is. It should probably be a three for one for somebody, but I don't know who the one is. And it's not

like they're going to win the title this year. So I'd probably not do anything with that team. Dallas is the one. They're 24 and 17. They got half of a completely normal Kyrie season. Shout out to Kyrie. We all like watching him play basketball. And we had no drama from you for three months. I loved it. They need to make a trade.

I was wondering if this is a Bruce Brown team, maybe somebody bigger, but one guy short. I don't know if the Grant Williams thing has worked out for them. I wonder if that's somebody they would move on before the deadline. Sometimes he won't even play that many minutes, but this is a team you would not want to see in a playoff series. And it's also a team that could get swept 4-0 in a playoff series. But I think from a Kyrie standpoint, I did not like the signing. Did not agree with it. And at least so far, it's been okay.

With that said, next week he could give some interview and it could completely fall apart. But I wouldn't call them a contender. But they're on the fringe. And they're at least a, I'm not crazy about seeing Luka and Kyrie in a playoff series team. So that's a victory. And they also proved to us that tanking still works,

because they ended up with Derek Lively. They made us all mad last April, including me. And it ended up with that Derek Lively pick. So there you go. Next category, the veterans. Milwaukee, look, they can't guard anybody. And you look at their defensive rating

which is 19th right now that is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs and you could go through any season find me a team that was 19th

in defensive rating that won three straight rounds much less four Giannis is plus 14 and a half on off I just want to

mention that you felt that last night they got killed it feels like he has a bigger burden than ever before with this team. Because Dame stats are good, but he has nights where he just doesn't have it. And

Giannis night after night, who really feels like he's got an extra FU to him this year. I don't know what it stems from, but I just can't take them seriously with the defense. So, we'll see if they can fix it. Middleton looks better. They got more to Beasley

than I think they could have ever expected. Crowder came back, but I'm just dubious. Yeah, I know they beat the Celtics last week. I get it. I get it. They came out. Celtics were coming off an OT game against Minnesota. Milwaukee shot the lights out.

The Celtics packed it at halftime. I'm not going to overreact to that one if that's okay. against Minnesota. Milwaukee shot the lights out. The Celtics packed it at halftime. I'm not going to overreact to that one, if that's okay. Number seven, Miami, which is too high. But as you know, I'm terrified of Miami at all times.

And actually, you could really pick apart Miami. Miami's 24 and 17. They're 9 and 0 in their crappy division. They're in like the worst division of all time. So if they, not for their division, they are 15 and 17. Not great.

Jaquez. So he's been playing like 34 minutes a game for 10 weeks, basically. And let's say he, he finishes at 32 minutes a game for the season. He's hurt right now, but when he comes back, he's shooting over 60% true shooting as a rookie. So I went on a basketball reference and I was like, how many guys have done this? How many guys have played 32 minutes a game and shot 60% true shooting as a rookie? And it was four guys, Adrian Dantley, Hall of Famer, Bill Cartwright, multiple time champion and top three pick in the draft. Buck Williams, who was awesome. I can't remember if he's in the Hall of Fame or not, but he was one of the best power forwards of the 80s.

And Magic Johnson. Those are the four guys ever who have done that. This Hawkeyes thing kills me. I love watching him. I can't believe he's on Miami. It makes me so mad. If you wanted to drop that to 30 minutes a game, you could add Jalen Williams and DeAndre Hayden to that.

But that's how good Hawkeyes has been. And if you watch Miami, they're just getting more and more comfortable running the offense for him. The problem for them is Kyle Lowry, who in his last 10 games, he's down to 5.4 points a game in his last 10 games, shooting 41%, 28% from three.

He's playing 24 minutes a game for them and just looks like he's run out of gas. I know he hurt his hand, but expiring a contract just feels like a trade. There's been some Rozier buzz with them. It makes a ton of sense. Rozier is just a classic, classic, classic Miami guy. Plus, he's been in some big playoff games. He's playing well this year. Maybe it's something like Lowry and Nikola Jovic for a 27 unprotected first and Rozier and Booknight. Maybe they try to get Nick Richards too, which I would encourage them to do

because I like Nick Richards, but maybe you add it. Maybe now it's like a protected second first, but it feels like there's a Charlotte-Miami trade there. And if they can turn Lowry into Rozier somehow, to me, that's the move. Their assets, they have their first this year. They owe one of two firsts next two years, then they own their own first for the next four. So they're doing something. If I'm Miami, I feel like I can make the finals. So I'm making trades. Last category, the contenders, Oklahoma City. I saw them in person against the Clippers. And it was the worst possible check game.

It made me so sad. I was so, I'd never seen them in person. I was so excited. And they'd played the Lakers night before. And it was one of those games. It was like the game Mike Evans had in the play. It was just like he had five thumbs. He just, you could see his confidence was gone.

The Clippers were banging him. Tice was like jumping over his back for rebounds. It was just really bad. So Chet, let's have a second date. Let's have, give me a mulligan on that one and maybe look like Chet in the next game. Because he's been really good this year. I have him as rookie of the year.

But it did illuminate that they have no protection for him at all if he's going to look like a rookie. They're going to have a playoff series in round one, round two, or round three where it's game four and Chet just looks like a rookie and he sucks. You can't then bring in the other Jalen Williams as your

backup. You need a real center. They have to get Claxton, Jakob Pertl, Clint Capella, even Nick Richards, Isaiah Stewart from the Pistons. They have to get protection for that dude. With all the picks they have, if they do nothing heading

into this trade deadline and we like our guys, that's actually irresponsible. I fully expect them to do something. SGA, by the way, plus 12.9 on off. And I actually thought Kosta in the Lakers and Clippers games, I don't know if you watched

the fourth quarters, but was missing shots he almost always makes. He didn't seem 100% healthy to me. But there was that one play he beat Kawhi off the dribble and Kawhi kind of timed it and then play he beat Kawhi off the dribble and Kawhi timed it and then had the old

Kawhi leap and stuffed it. It was the best play I've seen in person this year. I thought it was one of the best plays of the season. Nobody blocks Shea on that drive. He has all these different looks. Sometimes he'll go to the right and then he'll drive with his left hand

so he goes into the guy. So he also gets fouled. He does stuff on his drives that nobody's doing. And Kawhi fucking, not only did he block it, but he kept it in bounds and started to fast break. It was incredible. That game was absolutely, that game was so good. I drove home and I did a short while driving my car

and almost veered into another lane. Anyway, number five, Minnesota. They're 29 and 11. I had them slightly over OKC just because I just think Minnesota, if they played in a series, Minnesota would just have too much size over seven games. Defensive rating, first.

Net rating, fourth. I was thinking, really fascinating moment for Carl Anthony Towns. So he's 22 and nine this year he's 51-42-89 percentages so he's basically a 50-40-90 guy usage rates down in 26 range

true shootings around 63 this season's been a big win for Towns like they played that awesome game against the Celtics last week which was one of the best games of the year and I kept waiting for Towns to They played that awesome game against the Celtics last week, which was one of the best games of the year.

And I kept waiting for Towns to do his usual dumb town shit and pick up a foul 25 feet from the basket or throw the ball out of bounds or do all the low hoops IQ stuff that he used to do in big games. And he just didn't. He was good. I feel like maybe he's figured it out.

And if I had to psychoanalyze it, maybe having Edwards just clearly be the alpha on this team, maybe set things into place for him because he's really a number two. We always knew he was a number two. But the Edwards being a franchise guy so quickly has been, for nine different reasons, the best things that ever happened to Towns.

So I was thinking, I had Towns, if you separate all the number one picks since Tim Duncan, and you separate it by yes, maybe, or no, like, would you do it again? Yes. Would you do it again? Maybe. Or just no.

There's been 10 yes guys. Wemby, Palo, Edwards, AD, Kyrie, Blake Griffin, Derek Rose, he's in there. I don't care that he got hurt. That was a great pick. Dwight Howard, LeBron, and Yao. You do Yao again. So 10 yeses.

I have eight nos. DeAndre Ayton, who I think was a maybe until this year, and even I'm out. I've sold my Ayton stock. I divested. Ayton, Fultz, Ben Simmons, Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, Bargnani, Kwame Brown, Ola Wakandi. That's eight.

So I got 10 yeses and eight nos. And then there's eight guys in the middle. And some of these guys have retired and I'm still not sure. So I'm putting them in the maybes. Cade, Zion, Towns, Wiggins, who might be veering toward the no. I mean, he did help the Warriors win the finals.

Bogut, I stand by Bogut. That dude rebounded. He set great picks. He had some bad luck. He had bad luck injuries. Like he broke his elbow that time. Bogut's almost a yes to me, but I put him in the maybe. Kenya Martin, who's a borderline yes,

but didn't quite get there. And that Denver contract he signed was abysmal. And then Elton Brand, who I think was on course to be a yes, but didn't quite get there. And that Denver contract he signed was abysmal. And then Elton Brand, who I think was on course to be a yes, but then he got hurt. Towns has a chance to be a yes, is my point. Right now he's maybe, he's in with Cade and he's with Zion and Wiggins and Wall and Bogan and Kmart and Brand. There's some Wizards fans out there. It's like, John Wall's, yes. No, he wasn't. Towns has a chance to play off that list and actually go into the yes list of, I'm so glad we took that guy with the number one pick.

So that's the moment for you, Carl Anthony Towns. You're in your late 20s. You've been in the league for a while. It's never going to look better than right now. Number four, Philly, 26 and 13. Embiid, look, I'm glad you had another great game against Denver at home. Can you play in Denver this year? Can you do that? That's all I'm asking. Just do it in Denver. Let's see that. Embiid's been the best scoring whatever in the league. And he's one of the best scoring centers ever.

And this team is really good. But they still need more. They have all these expirings. This, to me, seems like the most logical Bruce Brown team. It's a very logical Bogdanovich team. And they had the Marcus Morris at $17 million. They have Covington at $11. They have some other stuff they could package together.

They could get Frisky with Tobias Harris if they wanted to. I wouldn't, but they could add at least two people, and maybe it's Bruce Brown and Caruso. Maybe it's Bogdanovich and Caruso, but this team has a chance to win a title, and you know who's never won a title?

Not just Joe Embiid. Daryl Morey. I think he's going all in on this one. That would be my guess. Number three, LA Clippers, 26 and 14. I did a short on my YouTube channel about this

because I was driving home from that OKC game and I was like, oh my God. They literally looked like a finals team. I think Denver's going to make the finals, but this was a team, the team I watched the other night is a team that could play in the finals. The unselfishness,

they got good shots over and over and over again. Kawhi guarded Shea down the stretch when they needed a couple stops. Even if he got switches, they were still able to defend him. Tice and Plumlee, like, not awful. They just need guys to set picks and bang bodies

and have their hands around the rim. And then Zubac is coming back in a couple weeks. But the crazy thing to me about this team, I thought when they made this trade, I thought it was one of the dumbest trades, even for the Clippers in their history. It was hard and just seemed like he was past his prime. They're betting on three older veterans to just figure out on the fly how to coexist and make each other better. And all of the history of the NBA said that this was not going to work. And yet so far, it's worked incredibly well. And I've been to a couple of the games now and I'm just like, this works. I don't know what else to say. The shocking part is the usage, right? So Harden was 25 usage last year. He's 20 this year. It's a pretty big concession for him.

George goes down 29 and a half to 27.2 and Kawhi goes down 27 to 25.9. And usually when guys are sacrificing stuff, their stats are going to look worse or they're going to have a little problem with it. Kind of like what's happening in Westbrook. All of their percentages, Harden's at 45, 42, 87. George is 47, 42, 91. Kawhi's at 52, 44, 88. These guys have gotten better by having the ball less. And when you watch them in person, it makes sense because Harden is like traffic hopping out there. He's just like, the ball's flying around.

It's the complete opposite of how he used to play. The ball doesn't really stick with anybody. I thought it was going to be a lot of isoball stuff and it's just not. But I was thinking about sacrifice guys over the years that actually won titles. So you're going way back to Earl Monroe in the 1973 Knicks, who could have scored 28 points a game,

but really gave up stuff to play on that team and fit in. Robert Parrish was like that on the Celtics. Rasheed was like that in 2004 on the Pistons. Ray Allen in 2008 on the Celtics is an unbelievable example. He gave up, I would say, eight shots a game. Chris Bosh on Miami. Kevin Love on Cleveland in 2016. These guys, I'm kind of buying it.

It feels like they're giving up stats and possessions because they see some sort of greater good. It's to me the biggest surprise that's happened in the NBA in the last couple of years. The team makes sense together. Now, could it go sideways tomorrow? Could somebody get hurt? Of course. And somebody probably will get hurt because it's three older players, but they really play well together. I got to say, this is the most fun Clipper team they've ever had. And I am somebody who hated watching James Harden play basketball. I really like watching him play this year.

What's happening to me? Last category, the favorites. Denver is number two. And then the Celtics at number one. The Celtics are 20-0 at home now. This is starting to matter, right? Oh, I get to bring in the 86 Celtics. They went 50-1.

They went 40-1 that season and got their ass kicked by Portland, the only game. I think now we're in the 20s. I think this is a streak that's going to matter. They're still being really careful. They're resting guys. They have to be careful with Porzingis.

They need nine weeks out of Porzingis. They need to get Horford there. They need to make sure Tatum doesn't play 3,000 minutes. So they're going to do some stuff. But what they've done and the way Missoula has kind of sat guys, put people in, he keeps the infrastructure of whatever the team is, no matter who's in or out. And it's kind of working. Like they beat, they rested White

and Porzingis yesterday against San Antonio. I mean, you're going to beat San Antonio, but the team never, even if guys are missing, the team still feels like it plays the same way. The two big things from a Celtics standpoint from the last two weeks that really make me feel like they're getting it is I mentioned before when Tatum guarded shade on the stretch in that OKC

game. I don't think he would have done that a year ago. I think he wanted to go mano a mano with them. I think he's understanding like, Hey, in this game, we need my defense and my rebounding as much as my scoring. And then what Jalen did in the Minnesota game last week was awesome. He rebounded, he played defense, he picked his spots. I thought it was one of the best games he's ever played. And I just think this team is really close and really likes each other. And you even see there was an airplane photo the other day. They took this photo of them in the airplane. They're all in there. And it's just, it's a tight team. It's going to be interesting to see if they even do anything at the trade deadline, because sometimes when you, when you strike oil with a combination of guys, you don't want to fuck with it at all. I still feel like they need a bigger guard, um, on those Pritchard nights when the, uh, opponent is long and tough, but, um, the Celtics team, this is the best chance they've had to win a title since 2009. And I know they're in the finals in 22, but that team, I always felt like it was a year too early for them. This team is excellent. And Porzingis is the X factor because he's the cheat code. He's the superpower of the team. So we'll see if he can stay healthy. Last but not

least, Adam Silver. I usually grade him at the end of the power poll. Nothing's really happened with him. Oh, thumbs up because he gave the Clippers the 2026 All-Star Game. Thank you, Adam Silver. You're on my good list this week. All right, that's it for the PowerPole. We're going to bring in Peter Schrager. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too.

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thousands of high intensity focused ultrasound waves, zero incisions. And that very same day, two steady hands. From innovation to action, Sunnybrook is special. Learn more at sunnybrook.ca slash special. All right, Peter Schrager is here. We did well last week with Million Dollar Picks, but I just did a whole basketball thing. You said you went to see Palo against the Knicks this week and you were impressed by Palo. Dude, we went Martin Luther King Day.

My son was off from school. We went three o'clock start, perfect. Mostly kids and diehard Knicks fans. And every time the Knicks were up 10 in the third, every time the Knicks started to make a little push in the fourth, when the magic came back, this guy, Ben Cherow, just put them down. And he was special in person, big body, can do it from inside and outside. And he was clutch. He was closing it with big shots, but also free throws at the end. That guy's a star. It's the first time I've seen him in person.

I didn't obviously go see him at Duke or anything. Yeah, I probably should have mentioned it. I just did that power pull. I kind of skipped over Orlando because I'm not sure what their goals are. But the Palo thing is the subplot to watch. Cerruti, before you came on, who's a big Magic fan, he was like, I don't want to jinx it, but there's moments where he looks a little LeBron-ish.

And it is like his size and speed and physicality. It is when he's going to the basket, he's getting in the basket, he's getting the shot he wants. And I remember in college, it was like they were an undermanned team. And I think they beat Texas Tech in the tournament. And everyone was like, Duke's done. And he carried them as a freshman. I really like his game. I love talking NBA with you. That's a thrill. All right. That a freshman. I really like his game. I love talking

NBA with you. That's a thrill. All right. That was great. I'm glad we got that out of the books. Before we get to the round two games, I have some lingering questions from round one. Yeah. Did the right team win Rams-Lions? I'm still four days later wondering if the right team prevailed. I texted you during that game. I know you've got a million text chains. I texted you the most pure, just childlike text. I said, this is a really great game. I didn't want it to end. And you wrote back, this is fun. It was such a good game. I think it's fine. I mean, you can go through a million things. Now, here's the truth of it. There were a couple of calls that weren't thrown, flags that weren't thrown, but they weren't thrown either way. Yes, Nakua was being held.

And yes, the Stafford stuff, you could have called a late hit or you could have called a roughing or something. But I think for the most part, it was called evenly in that they kept the flags away. And then when Goff had to make the plays at the end, he made the plays.

He had the completion to him on Ross St. Brown. So just an awesome game. I spoke to McVay for a long time this week. Like he's in this weird phase where it was like three days after the game.

I mean, it was still, the wound was still open and he thought this team had it this year. Like they could have really run,

but in the same breath being like, you know, that team is really physical. They're really good. And if we're going to lose a game like that,

those guys, they're pretty worthy opponents. So I think the right team one, I think the Lions had the home opponents. So I think the right team won. I think the Lions had the home field. They earned the home field. And that was a pretty cool deal

that took place in Detroit on Sunday night. I've landed in the, I'm not sure the right team won. But looking at the Lions-Bucks game, so it goes one of two ways. It's like, ah, they probably shouldn't have beaten the Rams. They had a lot of stuff go their way.

Or the Rams were really good and that was a great win by the Lions. And I think that's where I've landed with the Bucs game. I actually think that win against the Rams was an awesome win. But the line in this Lions game is minus six and a half. I was listening to the East Coast bias guys today. All of them were like Tampa. They like Tampa. They think they keep it close. And I'm like, Jesus, I feel the opposite. I thought Detroit answered a lot of questions for me. First of all, home field advantage was great. Second of all, super duper physical. Third, their line held up. And I think Goff's going to have even... He played Minnesota twice against the Blitz this year. If Tampa sends the house like they did against Hertz,

he knows how to navigate that stuff now. But that team had a swagger. I thought it hit the shit out of the Rams that whole game. And I'm not sold on Baker, who seems like he's banged up in a bunch of ways. They're going to be hitting the shit out of him.

I just like the spot for them. Take it from a different viewpoint of what could have gone wrong. The crowd is in such a tizzy. It's their first home game, obviously, in all these years. How does golf respond? 14 of 14 out of the gates, just marching right up and down

the field. Now, of course, at halftime, Sean and Raheem make their adjustments. They start stifling, but then Aaron Glenn makesftime, Sean and Raheem make their adjustments. They start stifling. But then Aaron Glenn makes his adjustments and the Rams offense starts having some issues here and there. So I thought they answered every question we had. Goff was not electric in the second half, but when they needed him most,

he made the plays. Well, that was the Raheem Morris. Like, what did he do at halftime? Because it felt like he took out the run completely. All of a sudden, they couldn't run the ball anymore. I was worried because I came on this podcast and I'm like, last week, I was like, hey, Raheem Morris is going to make a statement.

This is going to be the Rams. And it was 21 points out of the game. He did a good job. And then he did a great job afterwards. He's going through some interviews right now. He's interviewing with about five different teams. But back to Baker, he had a press availability yesterday.

It was like a small comment, but it was interesting. He says he's still really close with a lot of those Rams fans, those Rams players from last year. Remember, he finished the season with them. And they all said it was the loudest building they have ever played in, in Detroit. And they're going to bring it again.

That's real. That stuff's real. And Tampa's good. I just think Detroit's dialed in. And this has a feeling of not necessarily team of destiny but team that's not going to wilt from the moment it certainly worked out for them that they don't have to go to Dallas after all the shenanigans

last month but isn't that karma in a little bit of a way like we go down they they take the high road remember they didn't bitch about it they didn't moan about it us in the media were saying all sorts of stuff. They took their pain. They took their pound of this fury.

They kept it in. And I think what Dan Campbell called it was fur-canned octane, something like that. He made some strange combination of words that just meant just bring it and keep it internal. And when you do that and you take the high road, things sometimes work out. And in this case, they didn't complain. They didn't pitch. They didn't come off as

guys who were so furious at the league. Instead, they just went about their business. They took care of business and now they've got the home game. You could make a case the Rams were the fourth best team in the league. You take the Niners and Ravens out of it. Lions.

The case would be the Lions and Rams were the third and fourth best teams in the league, better than anyone in the AFC. I think it's a case. I agree. The way they were both playing. And I just, I don't know Nakua.

I've never met him. I've never done a Rams game this year. I wasn't at camp. I speak to Sean. I also speak to Mike LaFleur this week. I had him on my podcast. He've never met him. I've never done a Rams game this year. I wasn't at camp. I speak to Sean. I also speak to Mike LaFleur this week. I had him on my podcast. He's the offensive coordinator. The way they talk about this guy. He's about everything

is the right stuff, whether it be humility, but also toughness. And you see the hits he takes, and he gets up. And it's like he is everything they want. And you see Stafford and how the hits he takes and gets up. The toughness is through the roof. So to get a win when Nakua has nine catches for 182 and a touchdown on 10 targets for Detroit to be able to eliminate that and what they had going on with Stafford and Nakua, that's a major, major win for the Lions. Plus Cooper Cup was out.

Oh no, he played. Yeah. Five for 20. It didn't look like the Cooper Cup we out oh no he played yeah what did he 5 for 20 it didn't look like the Cooper Cup we were used to he hasn't looked like that all season they had that

they had that one in the first quarter where Stafford throws it in the end zone there seems to be like a little miscommunication that would have been a nice one

I know I don't think Cup was 100% healthy I think he was gritting it out too but like Nakua was the number one this season

I don't think anyone would argue that he reminds me Nakua reminds me of one of those wrestlers now we're talking about teams that aren't in the playoffs but like oneua was the number one this season. I don't think anyone would argue that. He reminds me, Nakua reminds me of one of those wrestlers. Now we're talking about teams that are in the playoffs, but like one of those wrestlers who just says awesome matches and takes all these bumps. And you're like,

Oh my God, how's that guy? So he's like Kenny Omega. It's like, Oh, and then he just threw like the best block on that run play. Oh my God. He just got hit over the middle again.

It's, it's nuts. Um, lions. So that was a nice little tester, right? All right. oh my God, he just got hit over the middle again. It's nuts. Lions. So that was a nice little tester, right? All right. We kind of looked our mortality in there. We got three red zone stops.

We scored 24 points. Now we play this Bucs team. One of the reasons I like the Lions in this game, you know, the Bucs look good coming off last week. That Philly team was a disaster, you know, and that game was 16 good coming off last week. That Philly team was a disaster. You know, and that game was 16-9 and the Eagles were hanging around

and they didn't even want to hang around. They wanted to like get out of there for the season, it felt like. But the Bucs were letting them hang around because I don't think the Bucs were that good. That was the Eagles team.

I don't know if they were beating anybody on Monday night. Have you ever seen the hit piece come out before the game? No, you guys talked about it. I feel like they made history. Yeah. You and Sal had it.

And then this week, I got to tell you, Sirianni's meeting with Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman. And I think the plan is to present, here will be my new coordinators who are going to be from the outside. And I'm going to present these. And here's how I'm going to be able to secure them. And it's not good.

And Fletcher Cox called local reporter a clown yesterday for asking about Sirianni's future. It's still not good. And that Eagles team was like, they limped into the game and then they quietly limped out of the game. And I go back to what I said last week. They fired a defensive coordinator

when they were 10-1. And you could say he wasn't fired technically, but you don't tell me that that was a sense of panic. That was a desperation move at 10-1. And maybe that was the move that was supposedly going to galvanize and kickstart. And look at what happened in Buffalo. They get rid of Dorsey and they don't lose since Joe Brady gets

in there, but it didn't do that. To me, it was a sign of the pressure, the panic. And it's funny. When Howie had that draft and everyone was talking about, oh my God, they got Jalen Carter and oh my God, they got Keely Ringo and oh my gosh, how did they get Nolan Smith? I said on the air that there were people around the league who had had just about enough of me on NFL Network and everyone else talking about the Eagles draft for three days. And Eagles fans went with it and they said, you know,

okay, Schrager, like relax. It's not about you. It's not about anybody. It's just that this is a moment we're enjoying because we feel like we got a lot of good players and da, da,

da. Yeah. Jordan Davis kind of didn't have it in the end there. Jalen Carter, not really. Not factor for two months. Yeah. Not there.

Keely Ringo, not there. So like we could talk about the draft and the big names and all this stuff, but you're watching that Tampa team with Trey Palmer and Kalijah Kansey and Yaya Diaby. Just because they're the biggest names on draft day, sometimes those aren't going to be the

guys necessarily in the biggest moments. It's going to be the late round picks that are going to be the ones that are going to carry you across the finish line. Philly was dying to roll over in that first half. What was it, like 10-0? And they were just kind of lying there waiting to be pinned. Tampa wouldn't let them.

Yeah, the Bucs had a couple big drops, and they just let it. And all of a sudden, it was 69, and they're punting to the Eagles, and it just felt like, oh my God, are the Eagles going to steal this? I was nervous for my Bucs bets. But yeah, I think that has to be factored in the

Lions game. The question is, can the Lions cover the six and a half or do you just put them in a tease, which looks like the most obvious tease ever? But it makes me feel good that there's some Bucs people out there. There's a couple manifesto rules on this. One is, um, but where the nobody believes in us team, but don't try to talk yourself into one either. Do you feel a nobody believes in a sense from the box or not? Really? Not really. I don't feel it either.

I think they also have, and I don't have the exact number, but between all the veterans we mentioned last week with Godwin and Evans and Shaq Barrett and Devin white and Levi, like guys who won a Super Bowl. Right, they have some hardware. Yeah, that's not... Then rule number 15, make sure the team with a home field advantage

actually has a home field advantage. Well, the Lions definitely answered that one. And then the last one is just beware of the team that looked awesome last week. Don't get too excited. And Tampa, I think that win had a lot more to do with the Eagles than it did the Tampa Bucks.

They played fine in that game. Baker was good. Baker was good. Palmer and David Moore had two big runs after the catch. I think the pass rush was really good, and especially with the young guys all over the field. I'll say this. Dave Canales, who's the offensive coordinator in Tampa, who I believe today or tomorrow is interviewing with the Carolina Panthers for their head coaching job. Like this guy's been tremendous with what they've got and what they've been doing.

I don't know if they have the weapons or they have the amount of guys to keep up with what Detroit has on offense. And I think Detroit like Laporta played. We were talking that was going to be a big X factor. Not only did he play on fourth and one, he made the biggest play in the game with the touchdown catch. When you're seeing guys like Josh Reynolds making plays all over the place, this Ben Johnson's dialed in.

I feel like this is going to be Detroit in a... I've got Detroit winning big. Well, I was going to say if you had to pick a blowout, because we always have one blowout in round two. What's the blowout game? Even though it's not... They're two lines higher than Lions. I think

this one has the most blowout potential. We're like, oh my God, Tampa, why didn't we see it? Anyway, I'm leaning toward the Lions straight up, but the T seems great to me. The other one... Just a quick analysis, if I can, of the situation. The four NFC quarterbacks remaining right now are Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, and Brock Purdy. And one of these two teams, Detroit and Tampa Bay, are going to be in the NFC championship game.

Sometimes you just take a pause and be like, that's awesome. I got to give a little spiel on what Detroit has that maybe other teams are questing for or looking for. When they start rebuilding this thing a couple years ago, one of the first hires they made before Brad Holmes and before, obviously, Dan Campbell and the trade for Jared Goff, they hired Chris Spielman and a guy named Mike Dissner. Chris Spielman, obviously, longtime Lions linebacker, had a really good job at Fox. The ownership group and Rod Wood, who's the president, called him and said, listen, you're not the general manager. You're not the team president. But we need you just to be here in the building and give us some guidance to be the liaison

between the players. And Chris called me because I was his sideline reporter on Fox. He's like, what do you think of this opportunity? I'm like, if you want to do it, this is the time. And their interview process of head coaches was fascinating. And one of the reasons they hired Dan Campbell and they loved it is because Dan Campbell's message to them, and I don't know if this is lip service or not, is I don't necessarily want to be an NFL head coach anywhere. I like what I'm doing in New Orleans. And at the time, he was still with Sean Payton. He's like, I want to be the Detroit Lions head coach. I want to be the guy who could build this thing up from the ashes. And for Spielman to leave a well-paying, nice third analyst job at Fox, for this guy, Mike Dissner, who worked under Steve Keim in Arizona and worked for the Bidwells and

kind of had his lay of the land in Arizona, which is a nice place to live, and to leave to go to Michigan and where he was from and to work with Spielman. And then they hire Holmes and Campbell and make... It's almost like the bedrock of this thing is built on the right stuff. And I know that sounds corny, but these aren't money grabs. This wasn't a desirable place to go.

And all of these guys left good jobs to come to Detroit to help build it. I love seeing it come to fruition and that win was really cool and I think they're going to keep going. How was that for a lot of luck? That was good. Well, they got lucky too because Hutchinson was

awesome in that first playoff game and Jacksonville passed on him. Right? And then we watched him on hard knocks. We're like, what's up with this guy? Yeah, they took the combine guy. And meanwhile, he had the biggest play of the game. That third and four gets a holding penalty.

And that's basically how they win. The other game Saturday night is Packers Niners. And, uh, right now the Niners are minus nine and a half. So I'm leaning hard toward the Packers on this. And it violates a lot of my rules, including, I think the Niners are really good. Like I think every win they've had except one was double

digits. I think they have the best team. I'm just in on this Packers team. Like you go back and look at all their wins. Like they beat Pittsburgh by four. They beat Detroit by seven. They beat KC by eight, beat Minnesota by 23. They beat the Bears 17-9, and that felt like a playoff game. Then they beat Dallas 48-32. This is all just November, December, January. And where I was looking was, all right, is there a— like, I'm not taking an underdog unless I think they have a chance to actually win. Is there a recipe for how they would win this game? Did that happen this season?

Is there a doppelganger game we can look at? I went back to week eight, Cincinnati 31, San Francisco 17. Burrow. Burrow was 28 for 32, 283, three touchdowns, no picks. They ran the ball 27 for 134. They had 29 first downs, six and a half yards per play, and just kind of dominated their defense, which by the way

had Hafunga in that game. And now he's out. I guess I'm going to say no Debo, no Trent Williams that game, I want to say. But that has nothing to do with the defense. No, totally. I hear you. If there's a case for the Packers, it has

to be the offense. It has to be, they go in there and they move the ball and they have long drives and they make plays, they get a couple of those 20 plus plays. And it kind of resembles that Cincy 31 point game. So the question for you, is that conceivable? So against Dallas, I thought Dallas's defense was was electric I thought Micah Parsons would be all over Jordan Love and dominating Zach Tom and the rest of that offensive line but the Packers were incredible on offense they're up 27 nothing when Savage gets to pick six I go back in time it's really amazing Mark Murphy who's the president of the Packers and has been you know

much the controversial lightning rod over the last few off seasons because of the decision to go and get Jordan Love and the way they've handled the Rodgers situation. He does that annual shareholder meeting, which in itself is adorable in a lot of ways and kind of cool. It's like he meets with all the Packers shareholders, the one time he does media. And I went through the interview again because I was fascinated to see what he said about Jordan Love. And he said two things,

which at the time were either A, overlooked or B, seen as slights at Rodgers. The first thing he said is, now we will finally get a chance to see Matt LaFleur's true offense. And there was a lot of eye rolls at the time. Like, damn, like, Rodgers, like, do you really need to take another shot at Rodgers?

But what he's saying is, you know, Matt LaFleur's offense is a lot like Kyle Shanahan's offense in that if you have a pure operator of the system, it is here's option one, here's option two, go through your progressions, be at the right place, run the right route and just hit it. Rogers would get to the line and we would go nuts and love it. But with five seconds on the, you know, the play clock, he would call out of something, audible out of something, see something, call a hot route, make a play, improvise it on the spot. And we'd be like, that's Rodgers. He's amazing.

He saw it. Now we get to see Matt's true offense and you're seeing it. The other thing he said. Well, wait, one other point on that. Rodgers was slow the last couple of years. He didn't have the same escapability and the ability to buy one, two seconds extra on a play, which is to me, like love's greatest strength.

Like he, he, the way he navigates and the back foot throws or way he slides over. Some of those plays he made against Dallas were like, those plays weren't open and they had, he had to buy an extra second or he had to, and I thought Roger stopped doing that. The fourth and two

that he throws to Dobbs when they're already up 41-16 and Dobbs slides in between three different defensive like that's the quarterback. It's great.

The other thing that Mark Murphy said and then I go back and I look at the transcript and I watched it one more time is he said they asked him what about the adjustment period? He said

it'll be the second half of the season for Jordan just like it was for Rodgers. And true to his word, two and five, three and six, and then something clicked. And it was right around that Pittsburgh game where something clicked and all of a sudden Jordan Love was

dialed in. But Bill, we talked a little bit about it last week, but there were guys that I didn't even mention on the podcast. When you see Tucker Craft and Bo Melton, Emmanuel Wilson, they're all first, second, or third year guys. They don't know any better.

And Jordan Love is truly the voice of that offense. Dialing it up, calling it out. It's an amazing story. It is so cool. I don't know if they can keep up with San Francisco. All that to say that. I got this from Anthony Dibundo's column this week so cool. I don't know if they can keep up with San Francisco. All that to say that. I got this from Anthony DeBundo's column this week about how since week seven,

Love is third in EPA and CPOE composite. And at the same time, the 49ers defensively since week seven, 28th in rush EPA, 20th in dropback success rate, 17th and drop back EPA and 22nd overall success rate. I think the thing that worried me about, and the reason why I didn't end up betting on the Niners when the future, when there was still some value in them to win the NFC, I don't totally trust their defense. And I do think you can throw on them. And you see Warner, like Warner's amazing, but this isn't a great Warner matchup because they have these four receivers who are just going in all these different directions. That's not like the perfect Fred Warner team to unleash the Fred Warner on. He's more like, you know, there's just other matchups that would be better for him. Um,

I really feel like they can move the ball and I think the line is too high. I think the line should be like Niners by seven. What is the line? What is it? That's nine and a half and it's probably going to get to ten and everybody's like, they're going to roll through the Packers. They're not going to be able to stop them. That actually might be right. But I think the Packers are going to put up points too

unless Love just lays an egg. You've been to San Francisco. You've been in that dome. I wouldn't say it's's an amazing home field advantage. It's like an average football stadium. What, the Santa Clara? Yeah, it's weird. It's not like going into the freaking Lions stadium.

It's not candlestick. No. Yeah. No, and there's the wine and cheese crowd feel to it because it's in Santa Clara, Palo Alto, that whole thing. It's not necessarily... It's not an intimidating atmosphere.

I'm sensing a hesitation. You seem to think... You're afraid to tell me that the Niners are going to kill him. Kyle's been in the lab, dude. Like this guy's been... They've had three weeks to prepare. They're coming out there.

They're healthy. Like the way he uses McCaffrey is unlike any other player. I just... I just... I think on a short week, like, you know, you think on a short week, you're asking a young team to now get on the road and go from Dallas.

That's truly miracle season stuff. That's truly team of destiny stuff. I don't think there's a parallel of a young team like this. They're the youngest team in NFL history to win a playoff game. So obviously they are the youngest team, but to go and then beat Dallas and then to go into San Francisco,

that's asking a lot. I said it last week on the podcast. I think they're a year away. I'll say it again. I think they're a year away. I don't think they're the team that's going to knock off San Francisco. Also, rule number one, beware of the looked a little too good the previous playoff round team.

They are the epitome of that. Rule number 14, beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants. I will say one thing about the Niners. It's the two different versions of them, right? If you're going to tell me they're going to come out, they're going to have like a 13-3 lead in the second quarter. I'm like, alright, well, usually the game's over when that happens. But

if it feels more like the Bengals game, I don't think the Packers can beat them either. But I don't think it's impossible. No, I do think there's a scenario where they come out, they get points, Purdy throws one bad pick, the crowd gets super tense.

There's a path for the Packers to hang in this game and that's what I keep coming back to in my head. And can they put up points? Yes. If they can do this, it's such redemption for Matt LaFleur who has never beaten Kyle Shanahan

who's, I'm not going to say his mentor, but he worked for him for many years in many different places. And it's such a statement for Jordan Love. We're talking about like superstar status if he beats this team now. And he goes through Dallas, the two seed and through the one seed.

We don't need him to beat the team. Can they go toe to toe with them? Can he hang? And can it be like a 30-27 type game? Or even if you get in the nine and a half, can it be 36-21 and then they get like the late touchdown to Dobbs or something?

I like the way Jones looked too last week. Yeah, he looks great. Their running game is good. Dude, they're great on offense. All their receivers are healthy. I think their offense... I don't know. I feel like it's going to be a shootout.

All right, let's take a break and we'll talk about the other two games. Coming back, one last thing on Niners-Packers. I was debating whether I wanted this to be a manifesto rule or not. It actually worked pretty well last week, but it was, you can't dismiss the nerd evidence when it's absolutely overwhelming.

So there's some nerd stats with this one. I just told you some of the ones about the Packers offense against the Niners defense potentially, but just like basic nerd stats, Niners are second on first down. Green Bay's defense is 23rd. The Niners are fourth on third down.

Packers defense is 25th. The Niners are fourth on third down. Packers' defense is 25th. Niners' third rushing. Packers are 28th stopping the rush. Like there's a path where they just ram McCaffrey down their throats. They have long drives. They're certainly the more physical team on both sides. I think they just, they are such a,

when you talk to coaches, they're just like the Niners just kick your ass. They're so physical on the defensive ass. They're so physical on the defensive line. They're so physical on the offensive line, but all those numbers you can throw out the window because the Packers are an entirely different team over the last month. True. You're right. Defensively, I'm still not sure because

Dak shit the bed and the crowd got scared. First, you know, 28 minutes. AFC, yet another but where the looked a little too good the previous playoff round team, the Houston Texans, who killed Cleveland. They're playing the Ravens,

minus nine and a half in Baltimore. So Noah Brown is now out. So they're missing two of their best three receivers. Woods and Mechie were on the injury report this week. They also have a bunch of D-line injuries. And they just seem, they played two playoff games in a row, basically. And they seem a little banged up. And then meanwhile, they got this Baltimore team waiting for them.

That's one of the better DVOA teams this century and has Lamar. And the only case you can make that Baltimore might suck is, oh, they'll be rusty. Or, well, Lamar in the playoffs. Yes. make that Baltimore might suck is, oh, they'll be rusty or well, Lamar in the playoffs. Yes. Or the pressure is just too much. He can't have another early round exit. I'll say this. I was talking about the pressure today on the good morning football. And we were talking like, who's got more pressure to win this week, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? Classic topic. We're going into it. Yeah. And I got a text from somebody of like Lamar throwing snowballs at practice. They're like, yes, he's wilting under the pressure this week.

And I'm like, all right. The answer is Josh Allen. Yeah, I agree. I mean, this is the biggest game of his life. I was the only one to say that. Both McCourty and Brandt are like, well, he's already won big games. I'm like, no, this is the time. What big games?

When? No, this is like he's in the Dominique Wilkins 1980 spot where it's like, oh, cool. You're in some fun playoff series. It's funny because I said Warren Moon on the show. I was like, you know, Warren Moon put up a ton of stats and played a lot of playoff games, but never won any of the significance.

And it was like, Warren Moon's a Hall of Famer and that could be Josh Allen too. And this is the year for Josh Allen when Burrowrows out injured you're home against the Chiefs and you've got all the playoff experience over the over Lamar Jackson if that's the matchup like this is the year for

Josh Allen this should be the year that's pressure also the Chiefs 13 seconds Mahomes I can't wait for that game let's talk Ravens though. Let's go Ravens. What do you want to do with Ravens?

Baltimore's best wins this year were they beat Miami by 37. They beat the Niners by 14. They beat the Rams by seven and they beat Detroit by 32. That is an impressive collection of skeletons. I think they beat the Seahawks by 30 also. And they killed the Seahawks.

At the time was the number two seed in the NFC. Houston's best wins are basically, if you count Jacksonville, sure. They beat Tampa by two. They beat Indy by four in week 18. And they killed Cleveland last week. There's the outdoors. They're fine.

They're three and three. Their defense is good against the rush. That's a good sign. They're sixth against the rush this year. Not as good against the pass. Baltimore's offense first against the rush. Lamar versus CJ.

I'm trying to figure out how do you make a case for Houston? And it would just be CJ Stroud, who's having one of the best rookie seasons, but now elevating and he wins in Baltimore and establishes himself as like

I'm now a guy put me on all of your lists put me with Herbert like whoever you want I just feel like this is a whole different level

of football than the last two to play in Indianapolis and play in you know that Cleveland team or Flacco turning into a pumpkin. It's going to be 20 degrees. Baltimore's getting healthy.

Mark Andrews practicing this week. They've got Likely, obviously. The only way I think and I hate to put the pressure of this for Ravens fans listening. The only way is they do this to themselves, which was kind of the case. You know, at times they lost to the Chargers

in a wild card round at home a couple of years ago. I was at that game. They lost to the Titans, of course, when Derrick Henry's throwing jump passes. You know, it's happened.

They've lost these home games in recent years. It's not like they're a juggernaut at home in the playoffs. But this year does feel different. That offense feels different. Lamar seems different. And they've got 20 different

free agents this year. A lot of guys who are very key players on this team. Justin Matabike, he's one of them. You've got, obviously, Odell is, who's on a one-year deal. Kevin Zeitler, Jadavian Clowney, who's had this amazing resurgence. It feels like, all right, everything's clicking for this year's Ravens team and the path is through Baltimore. A loss to Houston would be one of the epic, epic divisional rounds.

But we've seen it. Year after year after year, there's a weird game. So I'm definitely aware of it. I was looking at it for a bit. Baltimore wins the first half in the game, minus 185. It feels like they come out on a good start. Maybe Stroud has some second half, starts winging it.

I love Baltimore in this game. And I say this just like knowing that could be the kiss of death in a lot of ways. So the most obvious tease is the seven-point tease. Needless to say, Joe House is all over it. Ravens minus nine and a half, bring them down to two and a half. Nin, bring them down to two and a half. Niners bring them down to two and a half and the Lions basically bring them to even.

And the question is who fucks that up? Which one of those three teams? I don't think it's the Ravens. I don't think so either. Houston, they won a playoff game. They won that week 18 game. This is like a fucking gravy.

They were three, 13 and1 last year and completely irrelevant. They're great right now. This is the final eight teams. Quick notes from the press release from the Ravens guys. Jacoby Jones, honorary captain. He used to play for both teams, but I like that for the Ravens. He's a hero. Halftime show.

Jimmy Eat World. Come on now. Love it. Yeah. It just feels like if you told me Houston had all of their receivers, I'd be like, okay.

But I find it hard to believe people can't shut down Nico Collins for three weeks in a row. He's just going to run a mock every week. Nico Collins. We'll see. Brevin Jordan, Dalton Schultz, John Meche, you mentioned.

They're getting contributions from everyone. It's been an awesome season. It really has. In case it wasn't clear to you, I really don't like the spreads this week. I actually might scale back for million-dollar picks. Ravens minus nine and a half is like, what do you do with that? You're winning the whole game and then C.J.

Stroud's coming down with 90 seconds left and gets the garbage time touchdown and you don't cover. I don't love it. The game that I really love is Chiefs-Bills. We could talk four hours if you want. I love the game as a fan. I also love the Chiefs.

I love the Chiefs. So do I. Yeah, let's go. Let's go. I love the Chiefs. I love this. Yeah, let's go. Let's go. I love the Chiefs. I love this spot for them. Let's do it. The Bills are too banged up on defense.

So hurt. And I didn't love their defense to begin with. And then like Bernard goes out, he's their best tackler. And then by midweek, it's like, well, he might play. It's like, oh, cool. That sounds great.

That guy's your best tackler. He might play. I think this owning Mahomes, owning Josh Allen matters to Mahomes. He would never say this. I have no evidence, but that's his rival. It's him and Burrow. He's got his whole thing with Burrow and Allen's the other one. Allen's never beaten him in a playoff game.

I think Mahomes wants to keep it that way, obviously. But I just think this is like a classic, if you're the best player of your generation, you win this game. Patrick came out last week against the Dolphins in negative 30 degree weather and looked awesome. Yeah. He looked the best he's looked. The Bills, like you mentioned, have, I think, eight different defensive players who didn't practice this week. Yeah. I think Mahomes is going to do

what he wants on that defense if he can. But I'm telling you, watch Willie Gay, watch Drew Tranquil, underrated defensive group at linebacker. They're going to be the ones

trying to stop Kincaid and Knox. Those are the guys this year. It's not, obviously not Gabe Davis, but it's Kincaid and Knox, and they're going to try to eat in the middle. And I think the Chiefs have the linebackers group that can keep up with them and do the job. And all they need,

because I think they're going to cover Rasheed Rice now as if he's a true number one. They're going to do what they do against Travis Kelsey, whether his production is down or not. Kelsey is a killer in these games, always against the Bills. I think in the 2020 AFC Championship game, I think he had 13 catches for 108 and two touchdowns.

They need someone else to step up. And they didn't have Pacheco the first time they played against him. And they just need someone else to make a couple of big plays. And I got to think someone else can step up in this game. But dude, this is all about history and legacies. And

if Josh Allen can't beat Mahomes with the cards laid out the way they are right now, this is devastating for his legacy. And I think it's pretty damn cool for Mahomes' one more time getting the best of these guys in their building this time. Yeah, I thought the Warren Moon thing was a good

point. Because I was there for the the Warren Moon thing was a good point. Because I was there for the entire Warren Moon era and he was really fun to watch and really never came through in the biggest spots in a way that I remember now as a football fan 30 plus years later. I remember him being in some really fun games, but he always felt like he was a notch below the elite group. Allen has always been thrown into the elite group. But at some point, it's like, all right, you know, he has, he'll have the one dumb pass a game. I thought even in the Pittsburgh game, everything goes wrong for Pittsburgh in the first half.

They were moving the ball. They controlled the ball for like an hour and a half of that game. And Buffalo wasn't doing that much. Um, the injuries, not just Bernard, Taryn Johnson, um,

concussion, who knows if he's playing safety, rap, hurt Benford, another quarterback, cornerback has a knee thing. Um, Von Miller,

who thou knows with him, my homes, eight, one, and one as an underdog in his career. Seems relevant. All the advanced nerd stuff, it's pretty close. All their stats, I didn't really see any advantages.

But we did have a game. They played Week 13, Buffalo 20, KC 17. And guess what? Bill's won. Probably the Chiefs should have won. If Tony's not offside, maybe this game's an arrowhead. Now I know they had a minute left and Bill's fans have let me hear it. Two KC turnovers in that game today.

Look, I don't know where you stand on this. I always go to like, you know, we talk about quarterback play. Like this guy beat this guy in this game and this guy's got this many playoff wins. And if you're looking at the current quarterbacks left in the playoffs, it's Allen and Mahomes by a landslide

have more wins. I think golf might be third, you know, playoff wins, whatever it is or whatever the status. And then inevitably a hive on Twitter or a hive on Reddit or whatever will come after me. And they'll say quarterback wins is not a stat.

I think it is. I think it matters because when we look back on these players, so often we measure it by their wins more than their passing yards and by their... For Josh's legacy

and for Josh, when we look back 20 years from now, this game matters. It's the first time he's getting them in his building. They're the higher seed. They're the hotter team.

It does matter, quarterback wins. In the postseason. I really do think so. And just like last week's win meant a lot for golf. I think it really did. It meant a lot for golf. I think this game is so big for Josh Allen because when you're on the Madden cover and you are at those celebrity golf tournaments and you're always with those guys, whether it be Brady or Rodgers or Manning. You like to come in with a little bit of a resume and a, hey, I got mine too. And at some point, you got to get yours. And I feel like this is the year for it.

And yet, Mahomes and Reed, those guys are killers, man. So the counter is the 13 seconds game. He did come through, it wouldn't matter. He was amazing. And then his defense killed it for him. We also lived through this 20 years ago with Manning and Brady.

Where, and I was, I was having a great time because it was way more, writing a sports column was way more sticky back then so I could do the whole Tom Brady's Bill Russell

and Peyton Manning's Will Chamberlain and Peyton Manning's never going to come through in a matter. It was just, it was way goofier back then to talk about sports. Um,

and then what happened? Manning won in 2006. He beat Brady a bunch of times and he kind of tilted it. The difference I guess is that, um, you know, Mahomes is younger. When you look back though,

and I know he beat him twice in Denver and he beat you guys in AFC. Well, one of them like, yeah, I mean, Brady was so much better than him that year. Yeah. He was hitting Gronk at Championship. Well, one of them, like, yeah. I mean, Brady was so much better than him that year. Yeah. He was hitting Gronk at the end just one play short. Yeah.

I think the playoff records, I think actually Manning is up 3-2 on Brady. But when you look back on it, don't you just specifically think about the few regular season games early on and then, of course, the two cold weather games up in Foxborough? Yeah. No question. And they didn't overlap as much as they probably should

have. Manning got hurt for one year when the Pats were good. Brady got hurt for one year when the Pats were really good. The point is the narratives can flip really fast. From what I've seen from Josh Allen this year, as spectacular as he is, he's just sloppy. We've talked about it for

four months. He'll do one or two things a game that he can't do Casey was the one making those stupid turnovers the last time they played but um I'm I'm in on the Kelsey maybe a little rejuvenated in the playoffs maybe he just wanted to get to this spot and I thought he even though he dropped a couple passes he had it felt like he was moving better in that last game, right? Even in the cold weather? He had a really nifty play, too, where he caught the ball, they brought him down, but he stayed on his feet and spun out of it and got a couple of yards.

Yeah. Look, this is where they cook. And again, until you beat them, and I guess, is there a basketball analogy? Maybe, was there a year where everyone took the Bulls to win and the Pistons had one more? MJ Bulls is a classic example

of the Pistons kept beating them and then people are like, oh, you're never going to beat them and then they beat them. And they beat them. Pistons, same with the Celtics in the 80s. The Celtics beat them and all of a sudden the Pistons flipped it. And I'll be totally excited to talk about it on Monday morning or here on your podcast if the Bills

do get that win. Until I see it, I can't pick against 15. The other problem is this isn't a team for him. Even though this has been the most awesome Chiefs season, the fact that they're this banged up on defense to me is a pretty bad omen. But at least

it's home. They have some things in their favor. He's healthy. And maybe he could just, maybe, so let's think about it. You're coming on seven in the morning. Yeah, good morning football. 7 a.m. NFL Network. Whatever that first segment is,

it's going to be about this game. Yep. And the possibilities are Patrick Mahomes. Why did we ever doubt that guy? Oh my God, we're all so stupid. We did it and he made us all, like how do we not just pick this guy every year until he loses?

Or the other one is Josh Allen. Wow, it happened. He did it. He was awesome. That play when he ran for 40 yards, that third and 19 when he ran around for five, and it becomes a Josh Allen orgasm. Yeah.

And what's cool about this game is those are the only two conversations that are going to be on at 7-0-1. It'll be that one, left one, or right one. And I just think it's going to be Mahomes. I do too. And Josh Allen could throw for 380 and three touchdowns. I still think Mahomes finds a way until he doesn't.

Every single time we doubt him, he does it. And as great as Josh Allen's been with his feet, and he has, he's been awesome running the ball. And you saw the 53-yard touchdown against the Steelers. Mahomes on fourth and four, 10-7, they're up. The game is kind of still in the balance with the Tyreek touchdown. Mahomes runs for 50 yards and gets out of bounds and moves the chains and sets them up for

another score. Mahomes has been able to do it, too. Pacheco didn't play the first time they played. James Cook ran all over them the first time. I went back and watched the first time they played this regular season. It's a different kind of game. Even with all that, if Tony doesn't line up off sides, who knows? And maybe this game is at Arrowhead.

We didn't mention the last piece of this. Buffalo has two days less rest. They played on Monday. And played on Monday on a freaking concrete parking lot. Yeah. Everyone said that field was just cement. So now you're just getting your body ready. I mean, I played three sets of tennis yesterday

and I could barely roll out of bed. I'm older. What would you compare your game to? Are you more like Edberg or Jean Bourg? Who do you compare your game to? Yesterday, I would compare it to a big flaming piece of shit. Okay. Okay.

Yeah. That was yesterday's game. Not good, huh? I got it back in the drawing board. Yeah, it just wasn't good yesterday. How do you... I'm picturing Bill Simmons playing 10-10. Are you slicing it gently over the...

Are you like a big forehand? How do you play? What's your style? No, I'm forehand dominant. Okay. All right. But I had him play it in two weeks. It was at night.

I was having trouble seeing. And I was like, I was like, God damn it. Picture you giant... The trouble seeing defense. Oh, opposite. I taught myself how to serve. It's not giant. Not Goran, I was like, God damn it. Picture you giant. The trouble scene defense. Oh, opposite. I taught myself how to serve.

It's not giant. Not Goran. You can, if it needs a bit. I'm just, I'm ground game. Okay. Two other small bets with this game.

Casey minus two and a half plus one 50 on FanDuel. So Buffalo's favored that. What? Three. What are they? Buffalo's at two and a half right now. So, if you take it the flip side, that's really interesting. So, the Chiefs are going to win by three, plus 150. And then

you start looking at the under a little bit, too. With, uh, you know, are they going to score 55 points in this game? Probably not. It's going to be long drives. I've had bad luck with unders. It could always be like the turnover, the bow, whatever.

But it just feels like a 21 to 20, 23 to 20 type game. Casey Buffalo overtime. Can you imagine? By the way, what a great game that would be. Plus... Do that just so we can root for it. Plus 1160.

So almost 12 to 1 odds that this game will go into overtime. At night in Buffalo? This game smells like overtime. I'm just looking at it. It feels overtime-y. God. I might put a little something down on that one too. And then

the only other thing we need to figure out, I think we're going to do a FanDuel boost with Jordan Love two plus touchdowns with something else. But we're going to announce on the Twitter.

But we need some sort of same game parlay with the Lions game. Okay. So if you had to pick a Lion that you feel like is going to be really good on this weekend,

who would you pick? I think this is the Jameer Gibbs game. Oh, this is the Jameer Gibbs game. Oh, it's the Jameer Gibbs game. I think Gibbs goes wild. I think this is Ben Johnson's interviewing for a few head coaching jobs. His name is out there. Let me show you what I can do.

You're going to go nuts on McCaffrey the day before and see how Kyle used him. Let me show you what I do with Gibbs. I'm going big on Gibbs. So Gibbs, 25 plus receiving yards. You like that one? I love big on Gibbs. So Gibbs, 25 plus receiving yards. You like that one? I love it. Gibbs. I'm all in on Gibbs.

This is the Gibbs game. Number 26. This is the Gibbs game. Gibbs game. Gibbs. Can he get to 50 plus? Can he get to 60 rushing yards? Seems like.

I believe it, Bill. Sure. All right. I'll figure out something. A million dollar picks. How's the weather on the East Coast? Terrible. It's just icy.

My kid called in sick from school. He's in first grade. And I caught him right away. I think he pulled the wool over our eyes. I think he's fine. Yeah, we're dealing with this. Oh, he did the Ferris Bueller on you? I think he did.

It's so good when they become smart enough to know how to do that. In first grade? I'm like, come on. No, age six is when they start to get a little devious. Yeah. Monsters, Inc. Can we see it again? Yes. Put it on again. That's where we're at right now. But yeah, it's cold. It's nasty, but I'll tell you, football's good and that's great on the weekends.

Do you have a coaching prediction before we go? I love the buzz right now. I'm talking about all these different guys for head coaching jobs. My guy Kingsbury, it was announced he's been talking to a few different teams off the record, but he's interviewing officially for the Chicago Bears offensive coordinator gig. But there might be a couple others.

It's interesting because let me tell you, he coached... He's got a lot of Pats ties. I don't think he's got a relationship with Mayo which is interesting. I was asking him about that. Maybe if they ask him he would obviously do it.

But Cliff, I think he wouldn't have a problem with me speaking as we were together in Los Angeles a couple weeks ago. He was saying I think the ideal situation

is a young quarterback and a defensive head coach so he can kind of do his offense. You mean like a Mike Rabo and Drake May combination? Sounds pretty good, right? Sounds good. But you're talking about potentially

Vegas. You're talking about Chicago and depending on maybe who Washington or Carolina hires, all those teams are going to have young quarterbacks, whether it be Fields or Caleb, who he coached. And I think that's the X factor. He coached Caleb at USC this year and the two of them got along great and he loves the kids. So

Cliff is my guy. I'm curious to see where he ends up and then all the other head coaching stuff. Is there a seat at the carousel for all these guys? You know, it's interesting. Feels like Pete Carroll might get bumped out. I think so. Is Vrabel getting bumped out or is Belichick getting bumped out? I think Belichick to Atlanta makes sense. The issue with Atlanta

is, you know, they've got Rich McKay who is a longtime NFL man who is looking to obviously still be with the Falcons, and Terry Fontenot, who is a GM that they got from New Orleans a couple of years ago.

Arthur Blank is committed to those two guys. Is Belichick going to be able to come in with people that he has no real... Is he going to just be able to come in and say, okay, I'll coach

and we'll see how that mixes. But all these different seats, we thought Ibra coach. And we'll see how that mixes. But all these different seats. We thought Ibra Flues might be gone. He's back. We thought Dennis Allen might be gone. He's back. We thought Todd Bowles might be gone. And then we thought both Dallas and Philadelphia might be gone.

It sounds like both those guys are going to be back. Oh, you think Sirianni comes back? I do. I do. I don't think they're going to blow up. God, that's like the most obvious Mike Vrabel team I've ever seen you like that huh Vrabel

again I think Vrabel's I think he's a top seven coach Tomlin would be the fun chainsaw in the hot tub I know you love that term I love that

chainsaw in the hot tub great water spraying all over the place alright I'll ask you one who's a better guy for a TV gig if you put him on the on the booth

or in a studio? Rabel? Belichick? Harbaugh? I don't think Harbaugh's doing TV, but Harbaugh. Or who is the other guy that we said is currently out of work

that would be interesting? The answer... Well, Tomlin would be amazing. Tomlin was who I was thinking. Belichick would be great on TV. Studio or game? I don't think... No, it's... Well, game would be the greatest thing that Studio or game? I don't think... No, it's...

Well, game would be the greatest thing that ever happened. But I don't think he would do that because... He doesn't need to travel. If he wants to coach again, yeah, and then travel and all that. But I think studio would be pretty great. I could see him doing the CBS, hopping in there with Coach Cowher and a couple other people. That'd be pretty good.

I think Vrabel would be pretty good also. Interesting. I can't imagine... Why I think Vrabel would be pretty good also. Interesting. Why wouldn't Vrabel coach again? I mean, is there a job for him? If there is, great. But Tennessee is one of the vacancies and he's not going back there and you start doing Connect the Dots. It's like, is he going to Seattle? I don't know.

Maybe there's a place. I thought Dallas would have been great for him. I thought New England would have been great for him. I'm offering England would have been great for him. I'm offering Bill Belichick a podcast right now. I would do any version of a Friday podcast he wants to do. Parcells used to do this pod when he was between, it was either the Jets and Cowboys jobs or the, I think it was between the Jets and Cowboys.

It was with Will McDonough. Oh, I love that. And it was in Boston, but it might've been syndicated too. And it was an hour of him breaking down the games. Really? Was it awesome? We used to listen to it because it was like the most unbelievable gambling stuff ever where he would just be like,

yeah, Jacksonville against Washington. They're not going to be able to run the ball on them. I just think Jacksonville is going to get a lead. Everything he said basically happened. So Belichick had some sort of football thing. I would go nuts. Parcells was on NBC for a little bit, then ESPN, right? Didn't he do TV for a little bit, Parcells? He did the late end. When he did that one radio show, he had just coached and still had his fastball and he trusted Will McDonough. And I also think it wasn't, things weren't aggregated like they would be by the mid to

late 2000s. So he could just say shit on the show. It was great. I don't know. It was my favorite. Because I would love it too. And I just in a new media world

like whether it be a pod with you or he goes and does something on a different scale like whatever it is. But if there isn't a job I sure hope he doesn't just like you know

go into the wilderness. Like I would love Belichick on TV. I really would. I think he's going to Atlanta. I do too. I do too. I would love Belichick on TV. I really would. I think he's going to Atlanta. I do too. I thought Dallas was a monkey wrench if they got just because that's 12 wins a year.

But now that that's out, I still don't know how that's out. But now that that's out, we'll find out. He can win in Atlanta. You just got to get him a quarterback. That's the key. How about Raheem Morris to Carolina?

I love it. I would love it for him. I think that makes a lot of sense. That's the key. How about Raheem Morris to Carolina? I love it. I would love it for him. I think that makes a lot of sense. That makes so much sense. A ton of sense. Raheem's going to interview at a few places. I think the Chargers,

Washington, Tennessee, like, I don't know. I hope. I think Tennessee would be fun. He needs like a young team with low expectations

and just... I think Raheem interviewed yesterday with Tepper and Carolina and I haven't heard how it went, but they also have to hire a GM or announce that Dan Morgan, who's the in-house guy, is going to be the GM. They've got to do that also. So Carolina's kind of going all over the place with coaches

and with GMs and I'm very curious to see what Tepper's next move is there. Yeah, I want to see. Raheem was so bad as the head coach 10 years ago, but he was like, what was he, like 31? Yeah. And it was a mess. And it's crazy. It's worked twice with young guys

and then it's not worked like 20 times. Kyle Shanahan came out and said he would be his first pick and then McVay and I were talking this week. A lot of it was about what can we do to help get Raheem in the right people's eyesight. When you have McVay and Kyle and... Yeah, that's a pretty good

start. And Tomlin. These are all guys who rave about him. And then Jalen Ramsey came out and spoke up on him. But I don't know. They're not NFL owners. NFL owners have their own vision. Thank you for the help with Million Dollar Picks. Good talking football with you as always. Say hi to everybody in the tri-state for me. I will. Like a chainsaw in the bathtub, baby.

Million Dollar Picks, round two, NFL playoffs. We're doing really well. We won $530,000 last week. We're up $2.662 million through the season. That's the good news. The bad news is I'm a little squeamish about the slate this week. I don't like the high lines. I just, I think we're going to scale back just a little bit. We have a big nest egg here.

We're just going to be a little more careful. We have four $200,000 bets that we're going to do. First one, Chiefs to beat the Bills outright plus 126. We laid out the case

with Peter Schrager. I think the Bills are too banged up on defense. I am not betting against Mahomes. Mahomes 8-1-1 as an underdog. And I just think they have a better team than the Bills. I don't care where the game's played. I don't think the Chiefs do either. Chiefs plus 126 to win.

I don't want the plus two and a half. We're just taking them to win. We're also going to put the Chiefs in a tease for 200K. Chiefs teased up to eight and a half because I think it's going to win. We're also going to put the Chiefs in a tease for 200K. Chiefs teased up to eight and a half because I think it's going to be a close game regardless. If they lose, if they win, I think they're going to win, but I think it'll be close. It's going to be a nail biter. We're going to put them with the Lions. I don't want to lay the six and a half with the Lions. I don't trust the cheap touchdown at the end, but I really genuinely believe the Lions are better than the Bucs. I think the Bucs are a little overvalued because the Eagles made them look better than they probably are last week

because the Eagles rolled over and played dead like we can at Bernie's. Lions teased down to 0.5. Chiefs teased up to plus eight and a half, putting 200K on that. We're also putting the Lions in a parlay, the Lions just to win with the Ravens to win the first half and the game against the Texans. I think the Ravens come out fast. I think they take the lead. Maybe CJ gets some stuff going in the second half, makes a little tighter than you want. I don't want to mess with the nine and a half.

Ravens win the first half. Ravens win the game. Lions win the game. That is plus 102. We're putting 200K on that. And then last but not least, this Packers, I just feel like the Packers are going to hang around in this Niners game. Lions win the game. That is plus 102. We're putting 200K on that. And then last but not least, this Packers, I just feel like the Packers are going to hang around in this Niners game. We're going to get nuts. I think they're going to move the ball offensively. I know the Niners are awesome. I know the Niners are going to move the ball on them. I think both teams move the

ball. So let's take the Packers up to 14 and a half. Let's take the over down to 42 and a half. So 43 points we win. That's minus 112 on FanDuel and we're grabbing that for 200K as well. So those are the big bets. Also, just because it's a playoff, we've got to put 10K each on Ravens minus nine and a half, Packers plus nine and a half, Lions minus six and a half, Chiefs plus two and a half, just to be on the record with straight ups. Very little, sprinkling. Same game parlay, plus 562 in the Lions game, Lions money line, Mike Evans, 25 plus yards, because he was stone hands in the last game. So you know they'll throw it to him a couple of times, try to get him going.

But the big one for me, Peter Schrager brought this up, Jameer Gibbs, 40 yards receiving, 40 yards rushing, a 40-40 for Jameer Gibbs. You add that with the Lions money line and Mike Evans, 25 plus yards. That is plus 562. We're putting 10K on that. Again, sprinkling. We're being a little careful this week.

We are also putting 10K just to root for it. Green Bay to win. Love 300 yards. Love throws two touchdowns. That's plus 1263 on FanDuel. Again, just sprinkling. So it's pigs in a blanket. It's little stuffed mushroom caps.

It's little fried mozzarella sticks. We are not doing entrees. We're going light. And then the last one, I had to do this. Casey and Buffalo goes into overtime. Plus 1160. Putting 10K on that. So a bunch of small,

tiny bets, and then our four big ones. But I think ultimately we'll come out of this weekend, Chiefs win, Lions win, Packers are surprisingly frisky against San Francisco, and the Ravens win the first half in the game. And those are where I want to concentrate my money on the million dollar picks for round two. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti. Don't forget to check out youtube.com slash Bill Simmons. If you want a little extra content from us, plus clips from this podcast, don't forget about theringer.com and the Ringer Podcast Network as well. And enjoy the weekend.

Enjoy the football. I will see you on Sunday. I don't have feelings with him. On the wayside, I'm a person I never was. And I don't have feelings with him. Must be 21 plus in President's like states. Fando is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia.

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