The Bill Simmons Podcast - Best Lakers-Free, Nets-Free NBA Story Lines With Chris Vernon and Joe House, Plus Million-Dollar Picks With Benjamin Solak

Episode Date: November 11, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House and Chris Vernon to discuss all the NBA stories that aren't getting enough attention, including the Grizzlies having the NBA's best backcourt, the 8-3 Cavaliers, the first-place Jazz, the struggling Timberwolves, and more (2:37). Then, Bill talks with Benjamin Solak about the upcoming slate of NFL games, including Rams-Cardinals, Seahawks-Buccaneers, Browns-Dolphins, Cowboys-Packers, and Chiefs-Jaguars (1:08:52). Finally, Bill gives out his Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 10 (1:44:21). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House, Chris Vernon, and Benjamin Solak Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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rewatchables went up on Monday. We finally did it. Me and CR cruising. Wesley Morris joined us as well. It was the second installment of Naughty November. Have a third one coming on Monday. Stay tuned for that. New podcast launched on the Ringer Podcast Network. Listen, we had to do it early. I know it's November.

It's November 10th today. It's a little early to think about the NBA draft. Not really. It's not. Not during a Wemby year. Not during a Scoot year. KOC, Kevin O'Connor, and J. Kyle Mann, they have teamed up,

and we've created the Ringer NBA Draft Show. They're going to be doing it at least once a week. It'll go twice a week as we get, you know, into March Madness and close to the lottery. But they did put up their first episode already. It was fantastic.

There's a little Charks homage in there that I loved. But you can go check it out wherever you get your podcasts at the Ringer NBA Draft Show. Coming up on this podcast, it's been a while

since we had Joe House on. It's not going to be Drunk House either. It's going to be Drunk House either it's going to be Sober House but him and Chris Vernon our friend from the mismatch our friend from Memphis we're still a little three-man weave

the three of us talking all the NBA storylines that we care about that don't involve the Brooklyn Nets or the Los Angeles Lakers that's right it is a Nets-free, Lakers-free zone for NBA Talk For You and then after that

Benjamin Solak is coming on to help me with million-dollar picks. I have some very strong thoughts about the slate this week. Peter Schrager is in Germany. So he's not on this week's pod, but he'll be back next week. And then every week after that, this was his last trip. So that is the pod. I'm pumped to talk hoops. I'm pumped to talk football.

Hope you enjoyed the all-movie podcast on Tuesday. It was a blast to talk to Cameron Crowe. We're going to get started. Let's get into our friends from Pro Jam. All right, taping this. It is 1 o'clock Pacific time on Thursday. It's before the night basketball game, so if anything crazy happens, don't blame us. Chris Vernon is here.

Memphis' own. You can hear him on the mismatch with KOC. Our buddy Joe House is here. It's Sober House, not Drunk House. He's at work. You can hear him on The Ringer Gambling Show and Fairway Rolling as well. I am so tired of Lakers talk and Brooklyn talk.

And I think there's so many other fun storylines that need to be celebrated that I want to talk about all the non-Lakers, non-Nets storylines that we should be talking about. And I want to start in Memphis. Chris Verno, I'm going to throw

interesting storylines at both of you that I've just been fascinated by. We're three and a half weeks in and you can throw a couple back at me. Here's one. No particular order.

I think Ja and Bane have the torch now for best backcourt. I think they have the championship belts. Wow. You're there every day. I know you're a little biased on this, but just day-to-day reliability, talent, performance.

I feel like they have the torch. So over the last eight games, Bane has been right under 30 points per game. Like this is not being covered quite a bit, but in the last eight games, as the season has begun, he's averaged 28.5 points per game. He's shooting over 50% from three.

And he's also leading the NBA in fourth quarter scoring. Like he is now on this trajectory to become an all-star, all-star and not even be like a huge debate. And if that's the case, you got one all NBA guy next to an all-star. I mean, I think you're talking probably Garland and Garland and Donovan. You're probably talking to John day and Trey,

even though they just kind of got together. I've them third. And then the Booker CP. CP is on 45-year-old Tom Brady, Bucks QB mode, but he's still CP. The other thing with Bane that you didn't mention, his pull-up stats are unbelievable. He's the best pull-up three-point shooter in the league.

He's a monster on D-house. You recoiled when I threw the best backcourt thing out there, but it's actually, if we're just going performance right now, age, all the things you'd want, I think they've passed Booker and CP3, and we don't have to talk about the Warriors guys yet. See, I recoiled

because I was sure that this was a backhanded way for you to get to Tatum and Brown, that we were to get to Tatum and Brown, that we were going to put Tatum and Brown in a backcourt, and we were going to have to start talking about the mother-effing Celtics in the first five minutes of this podcast. But I'm pleasantly surprised.

I'm thrilled. I'm here to tell you, here we go. I agree with everything you guys just said. Let's move on. But, Verno, Baines got better every year, but at no point during the journey until the last two and a half weeks were you thinking, this guy's unquestionably an all-star? Then Golden State in the next round, Bain had kind of tweaked his back, and Golden State made it their mission to not let Desmond Bain and Brandon Clark do what they did against the Minnesota Timberwolves. And so kind of got to go through that too,

had this unbelievable first-round playoff series, and then had some struggles and then ended very strong in that. And he is one of those guys that just keeps on getting better and better and better. And it's because he works on it. Like there are guys that you see throughout the league that truly work on their game and add something. And if you would go back to his rookie year, he was mechanical, pounded the ball into the ground. It was like, all right, just catch and shoot. Don't try the dribbling stuff.

Now he's leading the second unit. When they sub out the starters, he's leading the second unit. And he's not only the scorer, he's the playmaker for everybody else too. He has been unbelievable. That's been the revelation to me is watching him initiate and create.

And there were seeds of it last year, but it's different this year. You're right. To me, and you wouldn't want this, but if Ja just, you know, he tweaked his ankle, he's out for four games, like, oh my God,

what are they going to do? They'd be okay. And I think one of the reasons is it's because of him. Now with all that said house, I just said he's definitely in the All-Star game. I'm not sure he's going to make the All-Star game because the guard position is fucking loaded in the West.

Just going through it, Booker has to be in the All-Star game. If we're just going backwards, we're like, well, we can't leave this guy out. Booker's definitely in there. Ja's definitely in there. Shea, Gildress,

Alexander, the way it's going so far, he's house. He's like 32 a game. Oh, I don't have any issue with it. I just, at what point is,

okay, see, shut him down. Like, is he going to have enough games? Yeah, true. And then Curry's definitely in there.

Yeah. And four of that are definite. So Bane, I think has the inside track in that fifth spot, but you know, you never know. Lillard's definitely in there. Yeah. So, four of that are definite. So, Bain, I think, has the inside track in that fifth spot. But, you know, you never know. Lillard's got the legacy. Lillard already got hurt. I know.

Yeah, Lillard's already hurt. So, then after that. Yeah, what are you going to do about Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson, though? Like, we're not going to let them Utah boys out. You know what we're going to do? We're going to have a nice little viewing party that they can enjoy with some good food and some drinks as they watch the All-Star game. So, Verno, you're 8-4.

Yeah. Unfortunately, you lost to my team, which leads to storyline number two. Again, no particular order. I think Tatum and Brown are clearly the best duo in the league now, right? Because for years, it was like the Kawhi-George combo. We had the LeBron-Anthony Davis year.

Tatum went up a level. House, I don't know if you've been watching, but Tatum plays so fucking hard every quarter now on both ends. That guy is like, he's got the Kobe DNA. Ja, by the way, is the same. Tatum, both ends, is playing so hard.

Then Brown has had five or six games already this year where he's just been awesome. by the way is the same. But Tatum, both ends, is playing so hard. And then Brown is just, has had like five or six games already this year. He's just been awesome. And I just think they're the, they're the best combo to me. Vern,

are you disagree with that? No. In fact, I saw them in person in that game you were just talking about. And that was by far the best I've seen Tatum.

I mean, he's scored at every single level. He's gotten bigger. He keeps getting bigger as the years go on. I'm talking like broad shoulders. It's one of those guys where he's too

quick when you switch on to him, and he uses his physicality now when he's got a smaller guy on him. Not to mention, he could get his shot up over everybody else. I thought he was absolutely awesome the other night when I got to

see him. It was the first time I had seen him since of course last year. He's a great, great player. Just the idea that either one of those guys can go for they could each kill you. Usually, what has been the case against the Memphis team is that Brown has torched them. Absolutely torched them.

And they did a pretty good job on Jalen Brown. He still had like 20 points, but he did it on 21 shots the other night. But Tatum has just been, that was the first time where I thought this guy is a bonafide superstar. And I know that people have kind of put him in that class preemptively, and he was the best player on a team that just went to the finals. It was just my opinion. Just watching him go in, it doesn't matter what court the guy's on. This guy can be the best player on any court that he's on.

On any given night or possibly in any given series, he could be the best player. Yeah, that run that he went on that was coincident with the Celtics going on their winning streak in the second half of last season, that elevated him. And then we saw him throughout those playoffs and into the finals as that best player. And it was clear by the end of the finals that some combination of, holy S, this is the first time I've ever played this many games with this much responsibility. It got to him. But to his credit, right, and to the great joy of the Boston faithful the dude took the offseason

to put on muscle to to reinvigorate his mindset like all of the things that we were pointing at at the end of the finals where's Tatum why isn't he there every game there's a lack of consistency Brown is more reliable like a lot of those question marks, Jason Tatum heard all of that, put it in a file, and processed that shit and showed up ready for business this season. Now the open question is,

we're 11 games in. He's answered every single question we had post-finals. Can he sustain it through the course of a regular season? Does it even really make sense for him to sustain this it through the course of a regular season? Does it even really make sense for him to sustain this level through the course of the regular season? And then come playoff time, what's he ready for? Well, to your point, Bill, the two duos that we've mentioned so far, so Tatum's averaging 31 a game and Brown's averaging 25 a game. And this is just scoring. They both obviously have great

numbers in the other categories. Morant is averaging a tick under 29 a game and Bain is averaging 25 a game. So, I mean, those are the two best tandems so far statistically in the league. Yeah. And it's not close. I remember being in Boston with House. House just disparaged Tatum. Wondered what happened to him. He doesn't get it. He deserved it. He is a paper superstar.

We remember all your comments, House. But to your point, I do think he had to go through it. And I've heard all the great players have talked about this. You need that one, either playoffs or series, whatever it is, where you get the kick in the nuts, or you look in the mirror and you're like, I'm just not good enough yet. Or what happened? Why couldn't I, why did I lose? Why did I lose energy? Why did they figure out this one thing about my game? And I had no

answer. He spent the whole off season. All he did was work on finishing with contact and finishing in the lane. Cause the way the Warriors played them, they're basically like, we're taking away your threes. What else do you got? And he couldn't really figure it out. He's stronger. I, there's some stuff about him changing his diet potentially. Um, and just like kind of moving into that, like that Kobe mindset, that like LeBron second year in Miami mindset, where just something feels different. And I'm not saying he's going to be as great as those guys, but he passed this check Mark that I felt like as a Boston fan,

I'm like, I hope he gets it. Like even Verno, when he went to dream on his wedding, I was like, Oh shit, does this guy get it? Not positive,

but now I think he gets it. Still a young guy. I mean, there was, there was a, I don't know if you remember this. I'm sure there's a million things that have happened on your pods that you forget that other people remember. But years ago you had gotten this email from this guy and it wasn't even a guy that was in the country. And he sent you this email about guys that were 27 years old or older.

And he ran down everybody that was the best player on a title team. And I mean, we're talking Jordan and LeBron. I mean, all the great players. And for whatever reason, I bring it up a lot on the mismatch, that has always stuck with me with our level of impatience on when guys get to this point. I don't know if it's a magic age. I don't know why these guys don't win until they're 27 years old. But generally, over the course of NBA history, the best player on your team is 27 or older. Giannis was an outlier,

but he was 26, right? Tatum is still 24, right? And I remember talking about that last year, like for whatever reason, these guys, whether it's the level of the years in the league, learning how to get around, Maybe they just mature as men. Well, it's like a video game. You just go up. Yeah, you solve one level, then you get to the next one. But there's like 12 levels. And we expect these guys to win and be like, you know, if they don't make it to the finals

or they're not the best player in the finals, it's like, well, geez, why aren't they winning yet? But the truth is, over the course of time what we've learned is that these guys even the best of the best and people don't understand when you think about like how old was LeBron when he won how old was Jordan when he won like these guys are 27 or older yeah we're like seven eight nine years in the league crazy house house do you do you think it's this is a weird question, but if they win last year,

does what we've seen from Tatum these first 12 games happen in the same way? Probably not, right? You almost need the pain of getting your teeth kicked in. Because there's a world where Curry just sucks

in the fourth quarter of game four and misses some threes. Boston probably wins the title if that happens, even though I don't feel like they were ready to win the title. Curry goes up a level and then the series shifts. You know that I'm a glass half full kind of guy.

I think that Tatum would have heard all of that criticism and taken it on. Now, I do think that there also is an element of the unexpected uncertainty that was dropped into Boston's lap this offseason through the combination of what happened with their head coach and also maybe a little bit predictable that Williams was going to be out. But both of those things create an urgency, right? If you are, if you think you're the best player on the team, then you have a responsibility to carry the team through, you know, this unexpected distress. And that's something that he also seems up to the task. So here we are. I mean, of course we're doing 10 minutes on the

effing Celtics. I knew it. I knew it. I think, I think Bruno sees I think Bruno sees this with Ja. We're seeing this with Donovan Mitchell in Cleveland. We figured we were going to fill up this time house. We're not going to talk about the frigging Wizards. Yeah. You know what I mean? We can't talk about your team, so can we talk about ours? Well, let's talk about some real surprises.

It's not that surprising that the team that was in the finals last year is good and that their two best players are good. Let's talk about some real surprises. It's not that surprising that the team that was in the finals last year is good and that their two best players are good. Let's talk about some real surprises, goddammit. Alright, I'll give you a fun one. Miami might be dead. Oh, what? Come on.

Dead? What are you talking about? That run might be done the 2020 finals almost making the finals last year have you watched them like they play zone half the time this is like a this is like a put

duct tape and scotch tape and thumb tacks and they're trying to piece together these games with an older team they have no bench and I've never seen a decent team play zone like this. Like the four and seven, it's like, oh, we're going to turn it on.

Well, what happens when Butler like pulls his abductor muscle and he's out 12 games? They don't have a lot of options for the regular season. I think they're going to be a playing team. If you're a playing team and you're older

and you don't have a deep bench, I think that in the East, how fucking loaded it is, I would be fucking terrified if I was a Miami fan right now. I think the run might be over. This is a team that has won already. They've got pieces in order to make a move if they want to make a move. What pieces? What move? What pieces?

What are the pieces? Look, they got to expire a move. What pieces? What move? What pieces? What are the pieces? Look, they got expired contracts. They can move Duncan Robinson can be moved. Duncan Robinson? Everybody wants shooting? Come on. What are you talking about? He's like borderline unplayable. He makes $17 million a year. They can't move him. They can't

move Oladipo. He can't stay in the court. Do you want Lowry at age 36 for $30 million a year? Look, this is a veteran-laden team that doesn't give a crap about the regular season. Surprise, surprise. It's been obvious so far. I know, but nobody believed in them last year. They ended up with the

best record in the Eastern Conference. And one shot. We talked about how bad Miami is. One shot from the final. I'm sorry. I didn't know we were here to talk about last year. I thought we were here to talk about this year. I thought we were talking about the 2022-23 season. They're 4-7. They're not 1-9.

Yeah. Even if they were 1-9, I can't believe this slander, this Pat Riley slander. It's in Simmons' DNA. That's why, Verno. He can't help himself. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. We're 11 games into the season. We don't need to assess whether or not they're better.

This is what House was saying about the Packers as he bet on them every week for like five straight weeks. I did no such thing. Or the Rams or the Bucs. Like, this shit happens. Teams get old. The Rams, baby. Not the Bucs.

When it comes playoff time, give me Jimmy Butler. I'm right there with Berno. That's exactly right. Let me have that dog. What team is he going to be on when it comes to playoff time? He's going to be on the Miami Heat. Come on. That's the right point, though, because as Berno alluded, you can't sleep on Miami being aggressive about

improving their team if an opportunity shows itself. And the thing that we know about the NBA, opportunities will show itself. Players we don't expect to be available will be available. I mean, Utah at some point is going to change its mind about the course of its direction and strategy this year. There will be players available that we don't see coming. And then Miami will be in a position to try and jump in there. I think here's my Miami point. And this why in all seriousness I think they should be concerned I think the one thing we've learned this year is that more than ever this is a guards league and a perimeter scorer league

and the more guards you have and the more scoring you have and the more one-on-one guys you have look at Utah, Utah's 10-3 it's like oh my god this is what a crazy story it's like it's actually not that crazy when you watch them they spread everybody out and they have a bunch of guys who can beat people off the dribble. This is what the Cavs are trying to do. All you go on down the line. This is like Detroit's

ultimate destiny with Ivy and Cade. And Miami's not really that team. Like Lowry's not a guy that could go by people anymore. They have hero. That's about it. I think they have trouble defending those guys, which is why they have to play zone. And I just, my question is, does this current Miami team fit in with where we're watching the Ligo? that's about it. I think they have trouble defending those guys, which is why they have to play zone. And I just, my question is, does this current Miami team fit in with where we're watching the league go? Like,

Verno, when you guys play them and you haven't played them yet, and that's coming in December 5th at Memphis, and you're going to text me after and you'll be like,

holy shit, we were so much faster than those guys. I think they're too slow. I don't know, man. They're always physical. They still got Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Okay.

They still got those guys on their team. And we didn't see Max Struess come in. And Max Struess was playing in the playoffs last year. I'm planting my watch out flag. Let's take a break. Then, Verno, you got to do it. Now is the perfect time to download FanDuel America's number one sports book.

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that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal

and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, come back. Verno, give us an unexpected storyline that has nothing to do with the Nets or Lakers. All right, well, you mentioned Utah. I mean, I think, look, it's Utah and Cleveland, both of those teams. The Cleveland one, we could have seen coming simply because they acquired Donovan Mitchell. They didn't really lose anything. The team was sensational last year until they got the injury bug. They lost Rubio, they lost Mobley, they lost Allen, but that team was defending at a very high level and they were

competing for a home court advantage spot. They were in like fifth place before they started getting ravaged by injury. So the idea that those guys would add Donovan Mitchell to their mix and really not lose anything of significance, Laurie Markkinen notwithstanding, them being good is a good story, but we probably could have seen it coming. I think it's just that it's worked so well so fast that can we talk about them first and then we'll go to utah because i think i think you're right with that i saw house i didn't even call you after this i saw cleveland on monday night i went to cleveland clippers so i got to see it in person it was my first mobile experience which it was just he's just breathtaking yeah like honestly he's he's young kg he really is like just the way you tweeted that you tweeted the way he moves up and down the court, he could jump off. I mean, it's all stuff you see on TV, but in person where he's just how easily he could just jump from guy to guy on defense. Covers a lot of the court, doesn't he?

Covers a lot of the court. The eye-opening thing to me in person, which was a little different than TV, was they're so hard to defend with him and Allen together, but then the two guards who can get in the paint. And over and over again, the Clippers were in this situation where if you help on the guard who's already gone by his guy, then Moby or Allen just go to the rim with their arms up, right? And Mitchell already knows how to play with those guys. Garland already did, obviously. Garland's been unleashed as like, he's like a pure point guard now. He's not a score, he's an assist guy.

And once they figure out that Levert spot, I honestly think that's like a legit contender. I think that's the third best team in the East. I think they're a real problem. But the Levert spot was what killed them in the game I went to. He had wide open shots down the stretch, missed them. Clippers made a little comeback.

Cavs didn't get a couple calls. Little hero ball, and they end up blowing the game. But the Mitchell-Garland combo house, we were assuming it was going to be good, but I think it's been better than I expected. It's been better because Mitchell's been better. He's the key to all of it. And the thing you and Mahoney

I almost called him. And Maloney. Maloney, Mahoney, Maroney, all of them have talked about the commitment by Mitchell to defense. The defense part of this. I watched it in person. He was fighting through

picks and doing it. And I was like, whoa, where was this guy for two years? Yeah, so that's the thing that creates the Garland, right? The Garland comes from the Mitchell. The Mitchell is the alpha. We wondered, you know, he gave us shades of alpha over the course of his Utah tenure. But he didn't show it on both sides of the ball. He didn't show that commitment to be the guy.

And maybe it's because of whatever was going on with Gobert. And he understood something. Maybe so. Maybe. It's tough to argue now. But look, he just showed up right and ready this season. And you can tell from the defense that he's playing that that's the way that he approached this season. And you can tell from the defense that he's playing that that's the way that he approached this season.

I love it. I think what's really, really, really jarring watching in person was when love comes in, they don't lose that much. And there's like in crazy plus minus stats for love this year, like a bench guys, like he's,

I think he's got the best plus minus the points per possession, all that stuff. And you can see it. They don't, he's a little older, right? He's not the that stuff. And you can see it. He's a little older, right? He's not the same rebounder that he used to be. He used to be such a mesmerizing rebounder. And that's kind of semi-gone at this point. But he's a better three-point shooter.

He knows how to play. And they can just put him in for Mobley or Allen, and they stay the same. And that was what... So I kept watching the Levert spot and the Wade spot because that's what they're going to have to fix. And they need the moment they get somebody who can be in that left corner, who just makes threes, that whole court's going to open up and they're going to be really hard to defend. I have them third, Verno. I think if you're telling me

who's the most likely team to make the finals, Milwaukee is clearly levitating over everyone, then Boston. And then I think it's Cleveland. And Boston-Cleveland might be 2A and 2B for me. Man, I would give anything to watch those teams play in a playoff series. They played those two games. They both went to overtime. And that last one that they played where it was, you know, Tatum's blocking Mitchell at the buzzer.

Tatum's having the dunk at the end. That game was so high level for a game that's within the first 10 games of the season. It was ridiculous. Yeah. You know what else? So that was the first game of the first Clipper game I went to. Like I went to a Laker game, but those aren't real games. They're so disjointed.

It's not basketball. This rule, first of of all they've made this real conscious effort to just keep the flow going right but that just taking away that fast break rule where you can foul somebody in the fast break has made just a dramatic impact this game I went to that

Cavs-Cooper game the first quarter was 19 minutes it started at like 737 and all of a sudden the first quarter was 19 minutes. It started at like 737. Yep. And all of a sudden the first quarter was ending. And I was with a friend of mine and I was with Wesley. And I was like, what time is it?

And we look and it was like 756. And we're like, what the fuck just happened? It's not even eight o'clock yet. It's the second quarter. But these games, and I know you guys have seen this too with some of the, like the Cavs-Boston game was another one. You'll just have these four-minute stretches now where it's just basketball. Like it really flows back and forth. No fouls.

I think that's been an unbelievable rule for them. It's made a profound difference. Yeah. Profound difference, right, in terms of flow of the game. I got to ask you, we did a quick little 20-second timeout on this. You mentioned these Clipper games, right? And every once in a while, you'll go to go seek someone out in person. Do you still have your season tickets?

I do. So it's 41 games. Yeah. How many would you say you'll go to throughout the year? Probably 15 to 17. And I share them with my friend, Mike Tolan, who takes half and then we'll sell the ones we can't go to. And you guys sell. Do they sell?

Yeah. Well, I'll tell you this. The Houston Rockets didn't sell. We ended up eating those. I do wonder. Do they sell? Like if you just put your tickets up because you got good seats we have unbelievable seats we kept getting moved up

but yeah look I'm not going to lie like Kawhi Leonard in street clothes every day has not helped the market

for the Quipper tickets out here in LA it just does not it's fun to see what sweatshirts and sweaters he wears but you know

after two months it gets kind of want to see him out there. No, but I think this year there's like nine or ten teams where you just have to go. Verno, you go to every game. I go to every game. But there's some appointment teams where it's like,

I just got to see these guys. I want to see what they look like. Oh, I was so happy that over this past weekend, we got Charlotte andotte and washington out of the way because those are i mean we saw charlotte without anybody they had no rosier no hayward no lamello no cody martin and then we saw washington without brad beal and i'm like okay these are not appointment viewing necessarily. But virtually everyone else on the schedule, there's a few here and there. Like now, you know, there's some of these teams where I was like, man, I have absolutely no interest in, say, Indiana.

But the Matherin thing is now like I could at least talk myself into, hey, I get to check him and Halliburton out in person. And so most teams how about sga i think sga you have to go now no i got if i'm going over the city it's to see poku come on come on that's right that's true they are on michigan this year no but even like i like when paulo's coming to town i'm fucking seeing him. 100%. That guy's a fully formed scorer already. What is he, 19? He's put up 23 a game. You know, I met that kid over the summer.

I went and the two twins that are in Overtime Elite, Azur and Amin Thompson, and I went and saw them at a workout, and Paolo walked in because he's represented by Mike Miller, who lives in Memphis. And you don't realize like the size of that guy. I mean, he is enormous. It's it's like Yannis. He's not like the strong. But I mean, when he fills out and he starts putting on the muscle, he's going to be unstoppable. He's already had a couple of 30s in the first couple of weeks of the season.

Great footwork, too. Oh, my God. What a freak. Truly. House, your team always just drafts either 9th, 10th, or 11th, so you're never going to get a chance to get a guy like that. Uh-huh. I went the other night to watch Johnny Davis and didn't get to see him.

Is that true? If you want to watch Johnny Davis, you got to get some G League tickets. That's the best place to see Johnny Davis. What G League team did he end up with? He's on the Go-Go. The Go-Go. That's our team. Utah's your kind of team, House.

Ball movement, guards, an old point guard, weird pieces. This is your kind of team house. Ball movement, guards, an old point guard, weird pieces. This is your kind of NBA. Well, I really like especially the Will Hardy thing. The underrated story over the summer, speaking of discontent in Boston, was Utah stealing Will Hardy out from under Boston's nose, right? Who was the one person whining about it with a podcast? This guy right here, me.

I was trying to tell people like, Jesus, this guy was basically a co-coach for us last year. He was all over the place. Yeah, lead assistant for EMA. And nobody gets a higher, more glowing review than Will Hardy from Pop. And if you're getting those kind of kudos from Pop, you know he's got something going on. It's clear that he's got the temperament and demeanor.

And maybe I liken this a bit to Brad Stevens, although Hardy seems even more relatable to the players than Stevens. He's 34 years old. He played guard, Division III than, than Stevens. He's, he's 34 years old. He played, you know, guard division three Williams, but you know, whatever.

He's got a basketball intellect and he's connecting with these guys in a way that, you know, immediately. It's so funny. The stories you look at, they're like, we read all the,

the, the news reports before the season started about us tanking. We said, fuck that. And I have to, I'm not prepared to do it yet. But Laurie Markkinen, who I've been calling the Finnish Bargnani for, you know, ever since he's been in the league, he's an all-star. He's absolutely, you know, been unleashed. And who knew that this version of Laurie Markkinen existed? Well, Will Hardy tapped right into it. And you mentioned earlier

the sort of direction of the league and the assets they possess in terms of the guard play. Mike Conley is going to be on a different team over the course of the season. I'm not sure what team he's going to be. Maybe not. They might go the other way and trade for somebody. They're 10-3. They can't tank first team to 10 first team to 10 i tell you this what is stunning when you watch them is the fact that they're all thrown together it's just like island of misfit toys everybody has a reason to

have a chip on their shoulder they've either been screwed over or discarded so mike conley signed up to be part of a team that's taking a run at a championship next thing you know he's with this lot of guys nikhil alexander walker discarded jordan clarkson colin sexton malik beasley laurie markinan taylon horton tucker vanderbilt olenek on down the line even walker kessler was drafted by somebody else and then moved, right? There's no homegrown guys. They've never played together before. They're all thrown together. They've all got this, you know, play for the greater good. The crazy thing to me is that you threw this

group together and they're all good players, but they make each other so much better. This team routinely has like 30 assists in a game. Do you know how hard that is to get guys to share the ball like that every single night? And the clutch stuff, too, has been jarring with them. They win these games in the last four minutes because they play better with each other than the other team plays with their team. And that's how they run over and over again. They beat your team twice. You've got to say it, right? I know.

And what was crazy is they end up just popping the ball around. They pass up good shot for great shot all the time. And they got guys that can knock them down, right? Like you swing to the corner. Now you're chasing your tail because they throw it to Olenek because they're out five out. And he just throws it over to the wing to Mully Beasley. Bang, he can knock it down.

And then they got guys that can drive to the basket and kick like, I actually, I was ready to be like, ah, yeah, this is like early flash in the pan type stuff. And then watching them, I was like, damn, man. Like they play like a good basketball team plays. That's what they play like. Well, House and I lost money on them a couple times early in the year, and it didn't feel like a fluke. It wasn't like, oh man, bad luck. It was like, shit.

I threw Denver in a money line parlay with a bunch of teams, and they lost by 20. That didn't feel like it. That might be on me. Yeah. It was never close. That's right. Or like that Memphis game we had where Utah was down like six in the last, what,

two, three minutes. And then they just made every shot and they won the marketing thing. I sold my stock. Unfortunately on him, I was carrying it for years. I always was like, everybody did the right team for him last year. I just my stock, unfortunately, on him. I was carrying it for years. Everybody did. I always was like,

when is the right team for him? Last year, I just lost faith, but he's never been in the right situation. His per 36 this year is 25, 10, and three. He's shooting 53%. How? 65% on two-pointers this year. That's like Rudy Gobert,

where you're just like dunks and layups, but it's not. He's making tough fucking shots. He looks a little Dirkish. And there's some stats that might say, all right, this guy might be hot. The league's going to figure out things to throw at them. But at the very least,

with him and then with Sexton, who Will Hardy looks at and goes, you're not playing 36 minutes a night for us. You're just not. I'll give you seven minutes a half and then maybe a little more if you're feeling it, but you're going to play between 15 and 26 minutes a game.

That'll be up to you how long you're in. Sexton's good. He's like a good heat check guy. I would have wanted him 36 minutes a night, but I'm down the line with all the picks they have. Verno. I don't know, man. I don't see them tanking.

And I actually had this written down. I think it's going to be hard for the, I think it's impossible for them to tank. I think it's going to be hard for OKC to tank with SGA playing like this. It's, I mean, it's, it's never impossible to figure it out.

Well, you just got to trade a bunch of guys. That's what they would do. I mean, it's never impossible to take. They'll figure it out. Well, you just got to trade a bunch of guys. That's what they would do. I mean, and that may be, again, you don't know the way this stuff's going to go, but Danny may look at it and say, this is the absolute best case scenario that I've got all these guys

who are all like eight-man rotation guys, but none of them are near. Probably none of them are the third best player on an amazing team, right? And so I'm going to take these guys and all these teams that are trying to win right now, they all have value. So now I can get a first rounder

for frigging Laurie Markkinen and I can get a first rounder for this guy. Ikinen and I can get a first rounder for this. I'm not giving away Lori Markkinen. I actually think I think he's a piece. I want to I want to keep him. Yeah, I think. Just looking at like big picture, like how I look at the West and it's like I like your team. Right.

I was thinking about this, too, though. Right. We talk about this tanking stuff all the time and you know that somebody like houston they're gonna have a million losses like you're not gonna have more charlotte we know that team it's gonna be charlotte houston there's gonna be even if you have the absolute worst the absolute worst record there's an 86 chance that you don't get that number one pit right and i know that there's scoot and i know there's amen thompson and i know there's this is a good draft right at the top okay but the one

guy is the guy that you would you people can say well you could still get scoot henderson but you're not just sacrificing an entire season for the chance that you might get the second draft pick because you might get the third, you might get the fourth. But when you have an 86% chance of not getting the number one pick, I do think it recalibrates how you think about even a team like Utah this year, because, you know, you look in the Pelicans didn't have the worst record. They ended up and the Pelicans didn't have the worst record. They ended up with Zion. Memphis didn't have the worst record.

Their whole franchise changed because they got John Morant. I mean, you know, one of the worst records was the New York Knicks. They ended up with R.J. Barrett. Well, part of the problem is Utah's the one seed right now. It's pretty hard to take when you're the one seed. Oh, I know. And we're hurtling towards a quarter of the way seed right now. It's pretty hard to take when you're the one seed. Oh, I know. And we're hurtling towards a quarter of the way

through the season. But you go through the West House. I trust, I trust that Denver will be there. They're already eight and three. Remember, it's like,

oh, what's wrong with Denver? Well, they're fine. They're eight and three. Phoenix is eight and three. And we, you, me, and Rosillo argued about their over-under.

And Rosillo was adamant, like, they're not going to be 12 games worse than last year. Stop it. He looks like he might be red, although Cam Johnson got hurt. I like Verno's team, Memphis. That's three. Then it's just like, I don't know.

Do I trust Dallas when Luca has the ball 87% of the time? Do I trust the Clippers? I don't know when we're going to see Kawhi again. Do I trust the Warriors who are 0-6 on the road? You go on down the line, New Orleans, I think, is going to be there, but they can't seem to keep everybody healthy. So I think Utah has to play it out. What do you think, House?

Well, I think it's fine for them to play it out. I mean, 11 games in, some unexpected thing will befall them. I want to do a very quick tangent on Phoenix. The Phoenix calculus for us and the reason that we went under is because we don't trust Chris Paul to play throughout the regular season.

It was just a basic bet on them not being able to maintain the health, and they still don't have, to me, any kind of replacement at that point guard position that's going to allow them to sustain. So that was the reason for the Phoenix Wager. Hold on.

Did you see his stats this year? Nine and a half points a game. Shooting 36%, 27% from three. He's getting the free throw line 3.4 times. I don't know if we were wrong with being a little suspicious about his nine assists a game. The reason that they've been able to stay good

is Booker went up a level. And Booker's gone up a level a little like what we're talking about with Bane every year, but now it's like he's just clearly one of the best 12 guys in the league. Something like 12, 13, I don't know what the list is. Why are you laughing,

Bruno? I mean, do they get to call Jay Crowder now and ask him, tell him like, hey, you get to start now. We got you some gold belly. We sent you some pizzas. Or is he like, is he still mad that he wasn't going to start? He doesn't need Goldbelly.

Bianco could bring him some. He's right there. Right. Bianco could bring him some pizza. They got to bring his ass back because, you know, the fact that the Warriors season has gone sideways so far. Now, that's a story because that's a defending champ. That was my next one on the list.

Perfect. Do you think they bail on the young guys and just throw veterans together for the one last ride with Draymond, Steph, and Clay? Or do you think they keep doing this serve two masters, develop for the future

even though it stinks and they see it through? I think you have to pick Wiseman or Kaminga. It feels like they've picked at least Kaminga to keep giving minutes to. I think they realize you can't give minutes to both of those guys and survive,

especially in the road games. I just like, it just feels like the Draymond punch was such a terrible way to start the season for them. And it's had them on their heels. And when I watch them, I don't, I just don't see the same joy that they had last year. Especially the first 40 games of last year, where it's like, man, these guys really love playing with each other. And then Draymond got hurt. They struggled second half. It came back in the playoffs in a real way, but they don't

seem the same eye testament. I haven't seen them in person yet. I can't wait to go. I'm going to be studying the huddle, all the stupid shit I look for. But I think that was a traumatic event, and I don't know if they've recovered from it. And I know that's like a guy on the couch thing to say,

but they don't seem like the same team emotionally to me, House. I agree. And we talked about this at the Over Under podcast. I had come in prepared to extol the virtues of the Warriors. He did. He punched me in the face. And it's like, shocker, there is a chemistry issue, it seems. Now, Bruno's point is the right one. They had a game plan coming into the season. And that game plan was to see what these young guys were all about and to let them try and feel it out. And it's still way too early to be making judgments about the Warriors. The Curry's been

incredible. So as long as you have that, we'll see what happens with Klay. I think they'll get cutthroat with Draymond with trading him if they feel like that's the move. I don't even know who the suitor is. What about Draymond for Larry Markkinen?

Oh, stop. Hey, look, their starting lineup is still near the top of the list. Yeah, their bench is killing it. They need three guys. They need Otto Porter, Gary Payton, and some other dude that can keep the ball moving. They're in search of three more guys, and they need Poole to the ball moving. That's right. They're in search of three more guys, and they need Poole to not be terrible.

He's fourth. He's literally fourth from the bottom of the league in plus minus. There's only three players lower, and I think one of them is Wiseman, and then there's the two kids in Houston, which are Jabari and Jalen. Well, Bruno, he's first in getting punched by a teammate in the face.

Fair point. House beat me to it. It's almost like he got punched in the face by the emotional leader of the team. All right, one more break, and then I got a couple more. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Trains move quietly, so you won't hear them coming.

See, safe riding sets an example. Because safety is learned. Okay, give it up. Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. All right. Can't believe we didn't talk about this yet, house.

This is another storyline. I turned on first take today and they talked about the Lakers again. We can all stop talking about the Lakers. They suck. You know who else might suck? The Timberwolves of Minnesota. I don't know if you've caught a gander, a whiff of their odor. It's not a great odor.

There's that, the body language doctor, I almost had, I had to take two Advil because my head was throbbing from all of the bad body language stuff that you're seeing in the games, the weird quotes, the towns monologues, the questions about what kind of shape Edwards is in the plus minus stats and the possession stats of when go bear and towns play together. It's a borderline catastrophe.

It's panic time house. I think it is. Well, and that one is fair. See, I'm willing to, to be concerned about Minnesota. I'm not going to give them the benefit of the doubt because they made an all-in move.

I mean, an unprecedented. We've all been through it. You've judged it one of the worst trades in the history of the league based on how much they shipped out. I wish I'd gone further. Maybe so. But look, when you go on an all-in move in that manner, then that means you have a conviction. You have a belief.

You looked at what you have in terms of the players, their personalities, the chemistry they have, that head coach in Chris Finch, and you say, we believe that we can take all of this and build it. We're going to elevate it with Rudy Gobert. Now, what have any of us seen in a full decade's worth of Rudy Gobert that suggests that that elevation was, that he was that kind of guy, that he was going to be a force multiplier.

All of us were skeptical. You more so than me for sure, and maybe Verno as well. But they have a problem because Towns and Gobert through a dozen games can't play together, can't be on the floor together. Yeah, who could have guessed that?

Verno has to host a podcast. It's basically like they have those election deniers. He's hosting with a Gobert trade denier. KOC. Let me tell you something. I'm going to get to see this team in person on Friday night. Oh, my God. What a Friday night that is.

That's unbelievable. I cannot wait. That being said, I covered that playoff series last year. And then that was part of my calculus for what are they doing? Because I thought, regardless of my opinion of Rudy Gobert, okay, regardless of that and what I think about it happens to him in the playoffs or whatever, there's Gobert truthers and then there's me. And we're probably both too radical. I'd like to can i be with you wherever you are can i can i stand next to you thank you you can be with me i as a

observer of a playoff series minnesota a hundred percent could have beaten memphis last year i mean that was a razor thin margin and in fact when mal when Malik Beasley said, we feel like we should have already won this series. Not only did I not rip him, I agreed with him. I thought, you know what? They did an amazing job on Morant. Amazing. As good a job as you could have possibly wanted. They had a good combination of star players and grinders. The role players and the stars. And kind of everybody had a pecking order. And they had a couple bad Towns games and the refs really took over that series.

But the truth was... A couple bad Towns games? I know. Jesus. What? That was your analysis of the towns games. A couple of bad ones. It was one of the worst performances by anyone. It was a perfect example though. A perfect example of the problems that they provide other teams with having

towns as a guy that can come down and stand at the top of the key and shoot threes. He played that. They could not play Steven Adams, right. Who was one of the most effective players on the entire Memphis team. And if you play a center, he drives past you.

If you play a smaller guy, he will every once in a while, he'll take you down to the block. And now, you've got another center down there. He's now just Sam Perkins, just going from three-point line to three-point line, right? He's guarding fours, and he's playing against fours. Yeah, you've removed the thing that made him special,

which you see as a mismatch. And the most important thing is that you didn't even need him to be that good because with him out of the way and you having to honor him because he shoots a high enough percentage, the whole damn thing

was open for Edwards, who is the best player on the team. How about this? They traded for the wrong fucking guy in Utah. I mean, just give, make the same trade and just get Mitchell back instead of Gobert, and you're probably better. I just think

you look at them and you go, every move that I would make would be with Anthony Edwards in mind. And I get it. He's young, he's immature, whatever else. But how does this fit with Anthony Edwards? Well, they sped up

the timetable on him and they made it seem like he's in the Tatum right now where we were talking about how Tatum's going to be 25. He's moving into... Edwards is... He's a pup.

He's just gotten in the league. You're getting this adult all-NBA center who's a fully finished veteran. He's never going to be better than he is. And it's like, basically, they were like, we're a contender for years to come. It's like, well, Edwards

has a lot of check marks to go through before we get that. And then the Towns thing, I don't know. Look, Towns is still awesome, and Edwards is still awesome, and this is all getting tricked. It reminds me of years ago where everybody got sour

on Tatum and Brown because they were playing with Kyrie. Not everybody, just morons. Yeah, they did. No, no, you're wrong. Yeah, they did. No, just people that didn't watch the Celtics all the time.

You tried to trade Tatum for Brad Beal. Stop. What? Everybody, everybody bailed on them. What are you talking about? Yes, they did.

No, they didn't. I wanted them to have a point card. I was like, I'm not making a decision on this until they have a point card. Kyrie tricked everybody into thinking those guys weren't as good. Well, we're not talking about Kyrie. And now...

Should Utah have just traded for Donovan Mitchell? Would that have made this all easier? They just could have given D'Angelo Russell. They could have thrown whoever kept Vanderbilt, just put Vanderbilt in all the Gobert minutes. Aren't they better off? Man, I don't know about that part. And, you know, I don't know if there's enough balls to go around.

You would get this version of Donovan Mitchell that we're seeing in Cleveland. Like, there's a clear role for him in Cleveland. It makes a ton of sense. I don't know if we would have got this version of him in Minnesota. But the thing, if you want to be glass half full about it, you give Chris Finch a little more time. You say it was a difficult chemistry experiment. I mean, look who's leading the team in PER.

None other than Rudy Gobert, number's leading the team in PER. None other than Rudy Gobert, number one on the team in PER. So, there are some efficiencies like those advanced... Did House just drop PER on us? Oh my God. What just happened? If you want to be glass half full, you say

let them navigate. And the more interesting thing is what team will Russell be playing on next? That's the question. Virta made the key point. If you're doing that, and this is what Russo and I said when we were in shock at how dumb this trade was when it happened. If you're doing this trade, this is like the final piece. This is like the Clippers saying, you know what? We're going to have Kawhi and Paul George together.

We're going to win the title or come close with these two guys. For everything they gave up, it still was, I had like real questions. It's like, wait, can Gobert and Towns play together? Is Edwards going to be ready?

Who are going to be your glue guys now? You just threw all of them in this trade. What is your team going to look like? Wait, don't you still have D'Angelo Russell? It left us with nine more questions and watching them before the season. There was this huge piece. I think it was in the athletic,

this big victory lap about the Gobert trade. Here's how it all came together. It was like they were talking about like the Normandy invasion. It's like, can we see these guys play together? Well, for 10 minutes, just before you're all like popping the champagne on what a brilliant trade this was. And I watched those two guys together

and they don't make sense to me. They don't make sense for how basketball's played in 2022. They don't make sense for just how they compliment one another. And as Verno said, they've removed Towns' most important advantage, which was his mismatch potential. He's no longer a mismatch.

So what the fuck was the point of the trade? That's my rant. They also, I mean, look, their starting lineup was devastating last year. It was. It was. Like, they had great numbers. Like, it was good. Now, you might say, well, was it championship good?

But I don't know. I mean, the winner of that, they would have given Golden State some problems for sure. Golden State didn't have anybody that could deal with Edwards. They didn't have anybody that could deal with him. Can I ask you this question? Yeah. They don't have their pick this year. They're closer to the bottom than the top.

I'll just say that. They're five and seven. Rockets are two and ten. I think the Lakers and the Rockets are going to be the two worst teams in the West, but that number three spot's up for grabs. I would officially be focused on this if I was a Minnesota fan.

It's like, wait a second. We're not going to be like the eighth worst team in the league and then all of a sudden be that team that jumps up and now we lost Wumbanyama. There's some teams whose there's some fan bases whose sphincters during that lottery. Like, can you imagine being a

Laker fan during that lottery? How tight your sphincter is going to be being like, please, God, no. You think they're going to they are not going to have the second worst record. You think they're going to have a worse record than like in the West? Yeah, LeBron's already hurt. LeBron made it 10 games.

He's played 60,000 minutes. He's already hurt. Davis is checked out and then some. He looks like he's trying to play where he doesn't have to bump in anybody during the game. They're not going to have a worse record. By the time it's all said and done, they'll have a better record than San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

And Oklahoma City, of course. Of course. And let's not rule out Utah. I mean, you know, let's see how Utah plays out. My last crazy storyline, and then we'll go. The Luka, just the numbers, the usage stats, the eye test of how they're using them, where it's like they looked at all the hard and Houston stuff

and they're like, hold my beer, watch this. And he's 35 a game and he's 28% from three. Like if you just gave him one more three out of 10 a game, he'd be at like 37, 38 a game. He's kind of circling around the highest points per game total we've seen since Jordan. I remember house. We talked about this in one of the over under pods about the scoring title.

And I think Luca was the guy we were looking at. And I think the odds were like half decent, but right now he's 35, eight and eight. He's absolutely magnificent to watch night to night, but it's the same issues down the stretch. He's doing everything. He's taking these fall away. 28 footers. They're six and four. I think it's going to be a great individual

season, but I don't, I'm just not a fan of this type of basketball. If my goal is to win a title and I have Giannis is the biggest asset in the league. I think Luke is second. I just don't think this style comes close to winning a title house. The problem is it looks like through these first 10-12 games a treading water season for them. And they don't really have

the luxury of treading water with Luka because we haven't yet seen the ceiling. The 35 points we did have a reasonable basis for... I definitely did bet him to win the scoring title, by the way, after we talked about it. I definitely have a little splash on that one.

But all of the questions that we had coming in was how do you replace Brunson? And it was both tangibles and intangibles. And so far, we don't really have a good answer. The JaVale McGee experiment is already a failure. He's going to be on another team soon enough. And Dinwiddie's having a good year for them, and so is Christian Wood,

and there still doesn't feel 100%. It's just not enough. It's just not enough. They're just treading water because the West is really effing good. I mean, even with the unexpected great performance out of Portland and the out-of-nowhere performance by Utah, at some point as the West sort of reconvenes around the true teams

that are going to be the top eight, it's going to be tough. Well, they also, Verno, they're dealing with tragedy. They're playing this season with heavy hearts after the deaths of Reggie Bullock and Tim Hardaway Jr. Oh, come on. They're zombies. They're playing at their place.

It's hard. You're playing with zombies. You're wondering what happened to the human beings. It's strange. Here's the crazy thing. He's averaging 35, 8, and 8. Like, he might be happy. He might be happy. Like, you know what I mean?

He gets the ball every damn play. He has the ball every time they go down the court. He's averaging 35, 8, and 8. They win some games. And the truth is, like, I was thinking about this the other day i have no idea how luca feels about anything right have you ever have we ever had someone that's that big a deal i mean maybe yokich because i don't really know what yokich feels about anything you know i'm saying like these guys we see has cool brothers that were like, hey, Jokic has brothers. He's got something.

But there's never a headline. There's never a, here's what he said about this. It's bizarre. It's like he just really plays basketball and then just goes about his business and you kind of know the way they play and he's got these crazy numbers

but I have no idea his level of content going on with it i don't even know if he ever speaks i'm sure i could go seek it out but i just never am aware of it like he's not on he's not on social media really like not saying anything and even like even when you hear an, it's like not much was really said, so I don't know how he would feel about it anyway. He might be fine averaging 35, 38. We know he likes sweet tea. He used to.

And we know he was listening to Migos since 2010, even though they formed in 2013. Oh, no, that was LeBron. Oh, no. Oh, man. Oh, man. Oh, man. Oh, that first year in Miami. I love bigos.

Oh, whoops. But I don't know. Look, did you ever feel like James Harden was unhappy averaging a million points and assists and everything else in Houston? He's super happy. Yeah. That's the guy that is happy. Everybody else should be the one that's pissed off.

Like, bro, I touch the ball like once an hour. Well, as I said earlier, like it actually feels like this season could get better because he's 35 a game, but he's really shooting threes terribly. Like he's shooting threes at like a Russell Westbrook level. And if that gets hot for a month, he could have a month where he averages like 40 a game. I hope everybody keeps that same energy when his team is middle of the pack team, but he's got these freaky

numbers. Well, look, they're 6-4. 60% wins is 49. I mean, 60% is 49 wins. 49-50 wins, that feels right to me. I think they're right around their over-under for the season. I mean, then that puts them in the middle of the pack of the West.

We're going to go, but before we do, as always, it's a tradition when we have House on in November, he gets 40 seconds to talk about the Washington Wizards, which is probably 20 seconds more than they deserve. Oh, I don't need 40 seconds on the Wizards. We're going to have a new owner of the football team here in Washington. It's a revelation.

It's been an absolute... I've been so quiet about it. I've really tried to maintain my enthusiasm, but my God, I can taste it. You can feel from all of the corners the forces coming together and driving away the Lucifer that has sat with his red butt cheeks on top of our burgundy and gold franchise and flatulated all over. He's about to be gone.

The stench is about to be gone. The team's coming back to Washington, D.C. Jeff Bezos is going to write an $8 billion check, and we are going to have football again in the nation's capital. I'm so happy. Wait, does everybody there think it's going to be Bezos? I don't know what anybody thinks. It's still early

days. That's what I think. A guy who can write a big check, that's what I think. I think it's going to be the Red Sox owners. That's why they just sold that soccer team? I think they've wanted to get in football for a while. And I thought that Liverpool thing was very suspicious,

the timing of that. Because they need to make a shitload of money from Liverpool to put toward... What is Washington going to go for? Like $6 billion? $7 billion? He asked for $7 billion. Somebody's going to pay that. Somebody's going to pay it, of course.

And then you have to add on an extra billion and a half to rebuild the stadium at RFK, which is the thing that will deliver that new owner, the fandom from, well, like, you know, a hundred mile radius. Everybody will be in love immediately with the new owner if they put the team back in the stadium at that site. Can I give you, Verno, my favorite wizard stat?

Please. In this league of guards and three-point shooting, the Wiz are at 30.6% as a team with three-point shooting this year. They make less than nine a game.

And if you go through their stats, everybody's bad. Will Barton leads the team right now with 350 from three-point land. The Wizards, to me, are like we have the do-not-bet list. They're just a do-not-watch.

I don't want to watch one minute of them. What's Beal shooting? Oh, man. Beal is... He's shooting 52%, but 32.5% from 3 he can't stay on the floor it's the same old thing

he's so happy Beta Beal found his place his whole career he's so happy Beta Beal he got a gigantic check an outsized check they should have walked in

you know a 10 foot by 12 foot check for the man with all of the bells and whistles that they gave him I mean he's a unicorn in the league. The only guy in the under this collective bargaining regime that hit the bare minimum

of the metrics to be eligible for that contract that gave the whole thing to him. I got even a top 20 player in the league. Look, they were they were in Memphis last weekend. I went to the game and. Like from the second quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, I was shopping for basketball cards on eBay. Sure. I wasn't even, I mean, what do I care?

That's right. That sounds way more fun than the Wizards. I do enjoy going to the games, though. I went to the first two games. I enjoyed both of it. Very calm. You can go have a nice thing to eat. You come watch the other team.

Sit right by the other team. So I have a nice time going to those games. That's a guy that got free tickets. He's talking about how enjoyable it was to go to the game. Shut up. You got some free tickets. There's your ad for the Washington Wizards. Corey, Corey, Corey Kispert and Dino Abduja have played a combined 39.5 minutes a game,

and they're shooting 35%. Johnny Davis has played 30 minutes total. Your lottery pick. Who? Not my lottery pick. Just a bust, right? Is he just a bust? It's hard to say, but, you know, I wasn't very encouraged at all.

Oh, we got this guard from the Big Ten who was supposed to be, oh my God, seriously. We got to go. All right. Verno, we can hear you in the mismatch. House, here at the Ringer Gambling Show tomorrow. Wait, I don't even get the impression. I figured I was having to come on here so you could make fun. I don't know if I could

do that again. I don't know where that came from. It was one of my best impersonations I've ever done. I just did it. I ad-libbed it. And that was it. I was just feeling it. I'm going to spring it some other time. Master of your career.

Thank you. Good to see you guys. All right, guys. All right, the ringers. Benjamin Solak is here. Fan of the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. I think this has been one of the weirdest, if not the weirdest, gambling prognostication

trying to figure out what's going to happen seasons. Yep. Culminating in this Munich Bowl we're going to have this weekend where Tampa is favored by three over Seattle. I watch football every week. Seattle's better than Tampa. Tampa's a mess. This Munich bowl we're going to have this weekend where Tampa is favored by three over Seattle. I watch football every week. Seattle's better than Tampa.

Tampa's a mess. Tampa's favored by three. And at this point, it just makes perfect sense. But we have all these variables this week. We have this Tampa team. Do they suck? I don't know. The Packers have lost five straight. They're the biggest underdogs they've been at Lambeau in forever.

What do we do with that? Jeff Saturday is now the Colts coach on intelligence. Josh, Josh Allen. He might have a torn ulnar nerve. He might not. He might not play. He might play.

Um, two has had two concussions. They have the best offense in the league. If he gets hit one more time, he's out for the year. Vegas. Lost. It got shut out by the league. If he gets hit one more time, he's out for the year. Vegas lost, got shut out by the Saints.

And now they're favored by five and a half to the Colts, which are the worst team I've watched all year. And no Hunter Renfro. And they have no players. And I'm just, I look at the slate and I'm like, this just feels like a massive stay away across the board, but we're not going to do that. We're not staying away.

But what is the biggest unknown variable that you're the most afraid of? I would love to have a good beat on Rams-Cardinals. Because McVay has historically owned Cliff Kingsbury. That Cardinals team feels like they're a powder keg. Feels like it's close. That may be just a little bit of Hard Knocks narrative building. But it certainly has over the last few weeks. I know Hopkins is back. little bit of like hard knocks narrative building, but it certainly has over the last few weeks. I know Hopkins is back.

We're fine. Oh, wait. No, we're not fine. We can't be the Seahawks again. Like that Cardinals team feels like they're on the precipice with the way that McVay has dominated them. It feels like a great smash spot for the Rams. And then Matthew Stafford gets put in the concussion protocol on Tuesday. And I don't know what to

do with that. I also don't know what to do with Kyler Murray hamstring holding him out of Wednesday practice. We don't know what he's done protocol on Tuesday. And I don't know what to do with that. I also don't know what to do with Kyler Murray hamstring holding him out of Wednesday practice. We don't know what he's done yet on Thursday. Like we could see Colt McCoy versus John Walford and the losing team is absolutely removed from contention in the NFC West.

A ridiculous game. I would love to be able to bet that one, but I'm not sure I can. Would you rather bet on Arizona if Colt McCoy was the quarterback getting more points or Kyler with a strained hamstring playing and they're like

plus two? Or you could have healthy Colt McCoy and they're like plus four and a half because we're not going to pick this game in million dollar picks today, but on Sunday if McCoy is the quarterback and that line's over four, I think I would grab the Cardinals. It's not like Murray's been playing well.

Is there a difference? It's very weird. The other thing about this is that they're both very good run defenses, the Rams and the Cardinals, and then they're both poor running teams offensively. They're also both terrible passing defenses. So the question is, let's

say both coaches have to play their backup quarterback. Who's going to be smarter and choose to throw the football, even though the backup's in? That team's probably going to win. And in that question, I kind of a little bit lean Cliff in terms of just being pass happy, asking DeAndre Hopkins kind of went on the outside. I think Colt is a little bit more trustworthy

than John Wolford is in terms of the body of work we've seen. So we get McCoy versus Wolford, I will probably be on the Cardinals side of things. Me too. It's more than a field goal. However, I won't feel good about myself while I'm doing it. I'm telling you, we always talk about kitchen sink games. If Kyler gets scratched and they have Colt McCoy against the Rams,

this turns into a kitchen sink game for Cliff. He's pulling out his best five plays of the season. He's like, I'm making this work. I want to win without Kyler. He tried to pull the old double pass screen to James Conner. They did it in the playoffs last year against the Rams. Got flagged for a legal forward pass. And he tried to yank it out against the Seahawks in a dire situation last week.

Got flagged for double pass again. They can't install this play. They can't make it work. It's very pitiful. I have loved wagering against them this season. There's been some teams that have just gobble-smacked me, like the Jaguars, the Panthers, the Bengals

a couple times, but the old reliable has been go against the Cardinals. The Seahawks beat twice. We had them on here and it's just been wonderful. But speaking of Seattle, so Tampa favored by three in this game. The Rams have the ball last Sunday. They need one first down.

The game's over because Tampa's blown it. They've once again fucked up in the red zone. They have one of the worst. This is the worst red zone offense Brady's ever had. And now it's like, all right, Rams, get 10 yards,

you win the game. And they can't run the ball. So Tampa ends up stealing the game in the last minute. If the Rams get a first down, is Seattle favored in this game? I don't,

I mean like a first down should not cost three points. And so if it is, that's bad bookkeeping. So I don't think they'd be favored. I just think. No, but I'm saying like if the Rams get the first down should not cost three points. And so if it is, that's bad bookkeeping. So I don't think they'd be favored. I just think- No, but I'm saying like if the Rams get the first down, Tampa loses.

Tampa's coming off a loss. It's the whole narrative of, oh my God, the Bucs are actually done. Hey, Seattle, they're good. They've won four straight. And I feel like Seattle would be favored by like two and a half because Tampa won that game.

They're like, oh, Bucs, maybe they're back. My point is, I don't think they're back. I think the Rams should have finished them off and they didn't. Nothing about that Tampa Bay game felt good, felt impressive by an execution standpoint offensively. Defensively, they were better than I thought they would be.

I was on Rams team total over in that game. Thought they'd be able to pick on the banged up secondary a little bit better. They've started to figure out, I think, some of the issues with not having Antoine Winfield there. They busted on the long Cooper Cup touchdown. But other than that, they kind of shored things up. So I think like defensively, OK, maybe they look a little bit better and you feel good about that. Offensively, like they're suffering for drops.

They're suffering for routes at the wrong depth. The pressure is still an issue from the interior. Like they are not nearly the well-oiled machine that they usually are in the passing game, especially by this time in the season. And on top of that... What would they have, six drops? I think it was five or six, depending on what charting service you looked at in that one game.

So yeah, there's ways you talk yourself into it, but it just hasn't been a clean operation since week one. And they still continue to run the football. Leonard Fournette is their primary passing down back. The Beats are reporting this week, oh, Rashad White might take over the role. He's been trying. He deserves it.

He's been better than Lenny since week three. I will believe that they're going to give the rookie the run the moment I see it. I don't think Tom wants it. I don't think Lenny wants it. I don't think that Byron Lefkowitz wants it. And for every snap they give Leonard Fournette, it's just kind of another dead and useless snap.

I agree with you. I watch football every week. Seahawks have been a better team for quite some time now at this point. And I think that there's still residuals from the Seahawks' horrible defensive start to the season sitting around in a lot of models. If you go back and watch the film,

they changed the way they play their front. They changed the way their front seven works in week five. And since that moment, they've been a solid defense. So the first four weeks don't really concern me too much with the Seahawks defense. I trust them. I trust Geno a ton. I trust Geno to beat the Blitz.

I trust Geno to beat man coverage. I mean, this was a Seahawks spot the moment the line opened. Seahawks last four weeks, second in defensive DVOA, to your point. And the eye test backs it up. Now, they played the Cardinals twice in those four weeks, but they're fast and they can tackle. And what eye test backs it up. Now they played the Cardinals twice in those four weeks, but they're fast and they can tackle. And

what do they have? Five guys from that draft starting right now? The two tackles, Charles Cross and the two cornerbacks. Two corners, Tariq Wolin outside and Kobe Bryant in the nickel. And then Kenneth Walker, who's the running back, starts. They also rotate Boye Mafayan,

who's their second round pick at edge. As draft classes go, it's a special one. It's really incredible to watch. Schrager, who couldn't be with us today, I saw him on Good Morning Football saying it was the best draft class since the Seahawks 10 years ago, 2012. It's the same kind of thing where they instantly transform their team. The other thing is, Tampa has only had 13 touchdowns this year. They've

kicked 22 field goals, which leads to a leak. But when you watch them over, they're like, from the 20-yard line to the 20-yard line, they're fine. But then as soon as they get in the red zone, you can see he doesn't know where to go. He's throwing Scotty Miller on crosses across the end zone and tight ends you've never heard of in traffic. And the same Mike Evans slant into the end zone that everybody knows is coming. And I just, I think if this is a tight game, I've just watched Seattle over and over again win these games and they're resilient and they're well coached. The only thing is there's some stuff, because I really tried to research.

I didn't understand the line. There's some stuff about the time zone seems to be factoring into this from going from Seattle to Germany in one week. Yeah, and it's a huge time zone jump. It really is. If you look at Pete across the course of his career in the Eastern time zone, right on the East Coast, he tends to be against the spread a little bit above 50-50, which is like a good number.

Like, okay, a little bit above 50-50, not great. Well, when you're going from the West Coast to the East Coast, it's a difficult jump. Most coaches are bad in that instance. Also, when he's an underdog going from West Coast to East Coast, he tends to be good. He's played one London game. They were three-point favorites over the Oakland Raiders at the time,

won by 24. You know, Pete's a good coach. Pete's been a coach for a long time. If there's a coach I'm going to kind of trust to understand what to do with their team in terms of dealing with the time lapse, Pete's pretty high up there. So Carroll's an underdog, and Carroll on the road have tended to be okay bets across the course of his career.

So I don't mind it too much. It's just right. You'll know pretty quickly if the legs are dead. And that's why I like the Seahawks on this line pregame. If you're able to watch this game live, I like the Seahawks on this line pregame. If you're able to watch this game live, I'll be in church in the morning, but if you're able to watch

the game live, it's a good live bet game because you're going to be able to see, okay, one of these teams just did not physically get into the game the way that they needed to.

All right, Kyle, turn the camera on. You're an Eagles fan. The Eagles are plus 185 to win the NFC Championship. Which of these teams, as an Eagles fan, are you the most afraid to see in the playoffs right now? I will give you San Francisco, 5-1.

Dallas, plus 550. Minnesota, 6-1. Tampa, plus 750. Or Seattle, 17-1 right now to win the NFC. Out of those five, who are you the most afraid of? I'm the most afraid of San Francisco. San Francisco has been there before, right? They've been down this road two times in the last four years.

This might be another time for them. So they've been in the playoffs. Defensively, every time I sit down, I go, okay, who's got the tools to stop this Miami offense, man? Who's got the tools to stop this Eagles offense? who's got the tools to stop this Miami offense, man? Who's got the tools to stop this Eagles offense? Who's got the tools to stop this Buffalo offense? I go back to an elite four-man rush and then a great zone team drop seven,

and that's just San Francisco. It's about when they're healthy, the potential to get Dre Greenlaw back this season. They have such cohesiveness in the back end and then such a cardinal trait. I was talking about this with Sheil on Philly Special about the ability to have just takeover guys in the playoffs. You have a unit or an individual who can just win you a football game,

win you a matchup. Who has to get planned around? We start to get to those really unique, bespoke, catered game plans in the playoffs. You look at the Niners and you find yourself a Deebo Samuel, a Christian McCaffrey, a Nick Bosa, and a Fred Warner. It's just takeover, guys. They're such a headache team.

So I think they're very well suited defensively to deal with the top offenses that they might find NFC or AFC in the playoffs. And I think they also have the matchup guys on their side of the ball, on offense, that are such a headache to prepare for on a week-by-week basis. Niners scare me the most. What's interesting about that, if that was San Francisco-Philly, is two teams that are way better in the first half. There would be some jockeying to see who wants to take the 17-0 lead that the other team can then come back from. I think that Seattle odds are off, that 17-1.

Because everyone's kind of penciling in San Francisco to the NFC West title. And they've already had a lot of injuries. They have guys coming back, which would be the case to take them this week. But sometimes, I don't know, man, that injury bug can kind of get in the air and it just kind of never stops. Such a long season. And that team just seems to have bad luck with keeping dudes on the field. Plus they have dudes, Kittle, Debo, and McCaffrey.

Do you trust those dudes to play 10 weeks at Aguero, much less 13 or whatever they need at this point? I don't. Yeah, Kittle's the one who I haven't seen. I don't think we've seen like 100% fully healthy Kittle in years. Like if you just look at numbers wise, like he's just not the same receiver that he was. Blocking wise, he doesn't seem the same to me. Like he's the one that I think

is really falling off by injury. I will say that like right now when we kind of you go through the Niners skill position players and you go, OK, Debo scares me and the Caffrey scares me. And then the next thought is always Kittle.

The Brandon Iyuk film this season's been awesome, man. And I was not an Iyuk fan coming out. I thought he was a limited player. I thought he was a one trick pony. I thought the unwillingness and weakness as a blocker was always going to keep him

in Shanahan's doghouse. That young man blocks. He is a complete wide receiver. He does a very good job running the downfield routes, like some of the most anew stuff that you used to see in this offense. Kittle, not what he used to be. You watch Iyuk, you see a really dangerous player. They've got guys in the

stables. I have him on a couple teams. He's been good, Iyuk. He's been a lot of fun. Really impressive film. A couple more games. Can we skip Bears-Lions? I'm on the over, but yeah. It seems like everyone's on the Bears. I like the Bears,

but then looking at some of the money stats, there's nobody on Detroit, so I'm crossing them off. Browns-Miami, I don't want to cross off. And I like this one because I think there's a case for both teams, and I can see the case against the Browns, but I kind of like the Browns anyway.

Cleveland's DVO is fifth last four weeks. Miami's won their last five games by 19 total. They beat Pittsburgh by six just now, Detroit by four and Chicago by three. And people are like, Miami, look out. It's like, I don't know if I need to look out. I'll look. I like what I see.

Tyreek's been amazing. You got Tua going. Their defense is 27th defensively in DVOA. Cleveland's pasty is okay. It's 15th. But they finally have Garrett back and they have some of their pieces back at least. Miami's offense is second in DVOA.

But I look at Cleveland. They're 3-5. Gave away the Jets game. That game was done. Nick Chubb falls down. That's a win. They're four and four. They blew the Atlanta game.

They blew the Chargers game. Oh, I forgot that Chargers game. They really could be six and three. And the Pats beat the shit out of them. And then people were kind of off on Cleveland, but they're getting three and a half against Miami. I like the hook.

I think they could win the game outright. And I like them. Should I be more scared of this Miami team? I'm not sure. I don't think scared is necessarily it because I think Cleveland can go punch for punch in terms of points scored, right? I'm on the over in this game. I like Cleveland's ability to move the ball both on the ground. Miami's got a pretty good run defense, right? Ninth by EPA per play allowed

in the running game. But Cleveland just tends to work whenever, you know what I'm saying? This Cleveland running game tends to be either we have a really good game or a good game. And that's, you know, we don't really get much lower than that. So I feel good about the running game passing game wise. I feel great. Miami plays a ton of man coverage. They're banged up in the secondary. They've been playing Eric Rowe because they had Brandon Jones go down. They're playing Kahua because they've had injuries to Byron. Byron Jones has gone down. Brandon Jones has gone down. It's a banged up secondary, and they still insist on playing man. Jacoby Brissett's been pretty good against man coverage this year. He's good at taking his matchups, pushes the ball downfield. So I think you see

a lot of points. What worries me, if we're're fading Miami is that the Browns are the worst run defense in the league. I don't know if it's Raheem Mostert. I don't know if it's Jeff Wilson. I just know that some back in this Miami backfield is going to have the opportunity to rip off explosives in a big way. This Miami, this Cleveland defensive front is so easy to move off the ball. And while the Miami offensive line, certainly I wouldn't go and be like, they're super great. They're very trustworthy. I love them. They've been getting better week in and week out.

And the running game has improved as this offense has been installed. I'm at a point where it's hard for me to fully trust a Cleveland team to carry a win, fully trust them to kind of carry a spread because they have such a clear weakness. And McDaniel used to be the running game coordinator for the Niners.

He knows how to pick on this. So I like totals in this game. I like points in this game more than I like any particular side. I can see this being like a final possession sort of thing, like the Bears were, right? They were four-point dogs, and they were just going 3-7, 3-7, 3-7, right, just back and forth on that line. I can see the same sort of thing in this one.

What if I offered you a same-game parlay? I love them. If the Browns win, do we think the game goes over? Do you think those two things have to happen together? I, I, I think the game just goes over period.

So yeah, that, that doesn't bother me too much. Okay. Well, right now Browns and the over is plus three 39 Browns to win the game outright with the over plus three 39. Yeah. It's, it's over.

It says 49 and a half now. Oh, wow. Yeah, so it's been moving for the last couple days. And then you put in the Chubb anytime touchdown, which would probably push that to about six to one.

And I think you're good to go. Yeah, I mean, like, I don't mind that at all. It sounds eerily similar to the same sort of stuff that I usually build on Saturday night and Sunday morning.

You get a Browns running back touchdown into a Browns team total over. And most days of the week, you're cooking with gas there. It just depends on what your final legs are. I, as you know, I like this Miami team a lot. I like this Miami passing attack a lot. So the Browns money line, again, it's just to me, it ends up being like a who scores last sort of thing. And that's what freaks me out. Um,

but for the odds, I think you're getting good value. All right. I might put them in underdog parlay Dallas in green Bay. We can do this one quickly. So the case of, I, you know,

we, the home, bigger home dogs this year have been really dangerous to go against. And we've seen a lot of FU performances by the big home dogs. On the flip side, Dallas is just way better than Green Bay. Gary's got scratched today.

All their receivers are hurt. Rodgers is a mess. What's the Aaron Jones situation? I have not seen an update on Aaron Jones as of Thursday. I know that we have no Dobbs. I know we have no Stokes. I know we have no Rashawn Gary.

I don't expect David Bakhtiari for the game. I haven't seen it. I'm looking at Aaron Jones right now. It's an awesome defense. And here's the other thing. And this is why I really want to put the Dallas Moneyline with something. You know, these Lambeau games, they're like religious experiences. You go and there's 80,000 Packer fans and it's freaking awesome. And they all love the team. I think there's going to be some Dallas fans at this game. You know, there's going to be people that sold their tickets. They don't want to go. The Packers have lost five in a row.

Maybe like, oh, I can pay for my... I feel like there's going to be Dallas fans. And I think there's going to be a weird vibe. And I think it's going to be a depressing game. And I think Dallas's defense is... I just think Green Bay's offense is bad. And Dallas's defense against this offense, I don't care where they're playing.

So the money line to me is a lights out opportunity here. And normally I'd be like, no, Rogers, home dog, can't count him out. But I think that's actually stupid. Right. And also I would, I like that mentality in the event that I think Aaron Rogers really wants to and cares about winning football games.

I'm not sure that's the case currently, but you know what I'm saying? Like, I don't, when I, when I watched that Packers film, because I've been watching week in and week out at this point, just because it's kind of like, you know, it's, it's, you watch it for the cringe where then it's of, you're kind of watching it through your fingers. He's just lazy.

It's just not, he's not in tune with the offense. He doesn't care what he's reading. He gives on RPOs that he should keep. He keeps on RPOs he should give. The Alan Lazard touch interception, right right he's thrown into the end zone he sidearm flicks it and it goes off a guy's helmet and then he throws a hissy fit you know what to do throw it over the top you've been elite for 13 years so i i don't see an engaged player and so like oh let's get up for this cowboys game and win for the home crowd i like if he does sure but i'd be surprised uh j, limited Wednesday and then limited

again on Thursday. So far, capped reps. I think you're probably going to see him play. Might be a little bit more of a two-headed backfield there with Dylan. This Dallas defense, against what's a banged-up offensive line, has been an underperforming offensive line. The disparity in the trench really

makes me think the Packers are going to struggle to move the ball running. That's the only way they've moved the ball over the last four weeks. Love Dallas. Love Dallas minus five. Every teaser I have this week has got a Dallas leg. Rodgers has been so lazy as a quarterback this year that the Sixers are trying to sign him

because they feel like he could fit right in with their defense. Yeah, just a little isolation dribble would be great. Are you intrigued? Well, I know this because we were texting. You're as intrigued by the freaking Jaguars getting a ton of points against Kansas City as I am. Yeah. Talk about not learning our lesson. I'm so annoyed

that the Jaguars are trying to seduce me yet again. They have 203 first downs, which leads the league? Extremely. It's a little bit because they don't generate explosives, which, actually a bad sign. Like, they have so many first downs because they get, like, 13 yards every

three plays. And so they're always just kind of, like, inching and making more first downs per drive than they should. The thing is, this is a something's-you-gotta-give game. You brought up the Tampa Bay performance in the red zone. Jaguars' bottom five in score rate in the red zone, top five in turnover rate, right? All they do is they get down within the 10-yard line,

and Trevor Lawrence gives the ball away. Travis Etienne fumbles the football. They've had such bad luck. That feels regression heavy, whereas the Chiefs' defense, third in red zone efficiency, third worst, that is. They give up a touchdown on over 70% of those red zone drives. So a Jags bet once again comes down to,

all right, they're going to get inside the 20. They're going to get inside the 10. They do this. Will they score? Or at the the very least not turn the ball over so you can get three on the board instead of zero? If so, like on like you look at like, you know, common FBI models in terms of points expected, the Jags are within nine and a half points of the Chiefs. They just have to not make mistakes in the red zone. So every time I bet on the Jags, I get bit by this. But hopefully there's a little bit of demons exercise. I think Travis Etienne is an enormous game against this Chiefs running defense.

I know it's been 20 plus carries, 120 plus yards and back-to-back weeks, but numbers going up, man. He's going to kill on this defense. He's been really good for a couple of weeks. And what's interesting is the first couple of weeks, he had drops, he had fumbles, but they

they were going to him he just took him what a month to get going and he still does like you yeah like again like film wise he'll have a dumb drop he'll have a read where like there's a clear alley and he won't take it like what are you looking at still knucklehead stuff one of the things that i think is good about this jags offensive coaching staff is they're letting him grow through that lawrence grow through that they're very much acting like it's a rookie season in terms of how much time they're giving guys to figure stuff out. I say this with all due respect to the Chiefs and the fact that we're in Kansas City.

The line's too high. The line should be seven or seven and a half, but because it's Jacksonville who loves to screw up every game and it's Kansas City at home, they can bump this to nine and a half and it'll probably even go to 10. They know teams, everybody's

going to do a three-team team or stuff like that. We could tease Jacksonville up higher and grab even more points. We could take this into the plus 14.5 range and you could do a parlay on FanDuel right now where it's Dallas Moneyline and it's

Jacksonville plus 14.5 and that's plus 113. And it's like, that's a lot of points for a team to not... Basically, you're saying they're going to lose by 15 points or more for a team that's going to move the ball offensively.

We can at least say that unless Lawrence just has his Philly meltdown where he's just dropping the ball every play. Right. But even then, like you, the Philly thing was all about the weather. They played in a little bit of bad weather against, uh, I guess the Raiders knew he was okay. And you don't, in terms of forecasts that I've looked at, I don't see any weather for

Kansas city right now. And so if we're avoiding Trevor Lawrence's kryptonite, which is water from the sky, this has been a really good offense consistently. It's just they've always burned us when we relied on them. All right, let's talk about the Colts. Must we? They're the worst team I've seen this year.

Last week in that Patriots game, they were so bad, and Mac Jones was so bad that the only reason the Pats didn't win by a hundred points was because Mac Jones sucked, but the Colts do nothing. Well, they can't block anymore. Their quarterback can't make plays.

They don't have Jonathan Taylor. They've lost guys on both sides. They fired half of their coaching staff at this point. And they just hired an ESPN analyst. I actually honestly think Mina Kimes would have been a better choice than Jeff Saturday, but whatever. Jeff Saturday has the cold side as Mina doesn't. I've never seen a situation like this.

I've never seen a team say, you always thought the head coach in the NFL, you always thought that spot mattered. Well, watch this. It's not about being in the league. It's not about working your way up. It's just about giving good speeches before the game and just the way you carry yourself and your attitude.

That's what matters with coaching. They're asking this guy who's never done, I think, one of the hardest jobs in sports, and he's going to be navigating things during the game. What do we do on fourth and one? Does he have a card that tells him what to do? He already said, he said, like he was asked about it. And he was like, yeah, I'm an offensive lineman.

I love points. So we're kicking the field goal. You don't even know where you are in the field yet. Don't say what you're going to do. You haven't gotten there. Yeah. And he was an offensive lineman. I just, this is one of the weirdest stories I think ever.

Like, like I'm actually, I put real time trying to figure out why they would do this. And I almost wonder like trying to tank to get like a top three pick and you want to fire your GM and you just want to clean house and start over with some new administration. This is kind of the smartest thing you could do. I'm going to bring this guy who's not attached to our team at all and has never coached before and put him in and he'll fuck it up for eight weeks and then I'll get to do what I want. That's the only thing that makes sense. I thought this was the weirdest, most inexplicable move in a while.

And I know you did too. And that's the thing is what was not most frustrating, but what was almost as frustrating was Jim Irsay sitting at his podium with a relatively straight face. She was still kind of laughing at us, providing justification. Oh, well, I'm actually, I like that he has no experience

because it means he won't have fear. What are you talking about? Don't do that. We're not idiots. We have Google. We know how coaching works. We've watched football. You can't pull the wool

of her eyes like this. If Irsay had sat up on the podium and said, listen, we're not a good team right now. We're in a position where we're going to be cleaning house with our staff. You know, probably by the end of the season, we're going to take a long, hard look at our coaches and our general manager and our roster. We're at a position where we've tried to be on the quarterback carousel. We want to find a way to commit to a young guy.

We know that we're in a spot where we're just not going to be able to compete for the rest of the year. I knew Jeff Saturday for 10 years. Always loved the way he handled himself. I thought he was a great locker room presence. I've always thought he'd be a good coach. I wanted to hire him when he retired because they tried when he retired in 2012 to hire him to be in the front office. So I've always wanted him in the building. I've always respected Jeff. This was an opportunity for me to get Jeff in the building. So I've always wanted to do and see what he's made of. See if he takes to coaching, see if he likes it. So I didn't take this opportunity. If you just called it straight, I at least would have respected that.

But again, he tried to act like this makes sense. But everybody knows it doesn't make sense. And that's what makes it even more farcical. Now, you and I, we know it's a farce. How's the locker room going to respond? I don't know. And if I knew, I feel like I could handicap this game well. I feel like I could be big on the Raiders,

big on the Colts. I know people who took the Raiders. Let me give you some breadcrumbs. Okay. The Colts are the second worst team in the league by DVOA. They're, I think by any calculation, the most offensively inept team that we have. They've lost half their coaching staff.

They have a quarterback who wouldn't start for any other team in the league. They looked horrible last week. And now they're bringing in a coach who's never coached before. I just don't see how they're better than they were last week with a guy who has no experience whatsoever

just because he's in the huddle before. All right, guys, let's get going here. Gotta do this for Colts football. I think this is going to be a disaster. And they have a play caller who doesn't know how to help, right? Like, you know, okay, Parks Frazier is a first-time play caller.

Last week it was Frank Reich. What changes? Well, you know, there's still like, everybody knows what the first and 10, the second and seven, the third and 12, the third and two calls are on the card. Frazier can still read it, right?

So like there's that. But there is an intuitiveness to understanding how do I set up my young quarterback? How do I get this route in a position to hit in third quarter by calling this play in the first quarter, right? There's like a beauty to it. There's a flow to it.

And this sparks Frazier's first time. You have to imagine there's going to be herky-jerkiness. You have to imagine there's going to be issues in terms of the communication. And then there's going to be disparity in terms of like run pass, what everything looks like and kind of are they going to have that flow? It's very difficult to imagine the Colts offense getting better.

I can imagine the players playing with more spirit. I can imagine the players playing with greater competition. I can see like the defense making huge tackles. I can see like, you know, massive uproarious applause when the Colts score their first touchdown in the third quarter. And everybody feels like they have a chance.

And that's what I'm worried about is just that, that emotional juice that might come into this game from an ex player, Jeff Saturday guy who knows where they've been. They've been in the third quarter and everybody feels like they have a chance. And that's what I'm worried about is just that emotional juice that might come into this game from an ex-player Jeff Saturday guy who knows where they've been. He's been in the trenches with them. That's the only thing that concerns me. On paper, nightmare game for the Colts. Even with the injuries, yeah, you think the Raiders should be able

to run all over them. Grover Stewart had rest this week. He should play but still be able to run all over them. And then Devontae Adams versus Stephon Gilmore sounds great. Sounds like a matchup on paper, but you watch Gilmore play this year and you realize, no, Devontae is going to win that 10 out of 10 times. You could argue the Colts should have no wins right now.

You go back and like that Kansas City game, they stuck that one out. They stuck one out on Jacksonville. Just games where you're watching it going, wait, how is this team winning? Matt Ryan had a couple end of the game drives that were pretty ridiculous.

Yeah, and at least with Ryan, they had teeth in the passing game. They could do things on third and long. They were one of the league's worst offenses, but they were one of the league's worst offenses. In the two weeks of Ellinger, I mean, they're 32nd with a bullet. It is not close. 31st, by the way, in terms of EPA per plays,

the Patriots, just as an aside. But 32nd by a wide margin is your Indianapolis Colts. Ellinger did not bring anything to this offense. Ursae insisted that he plays. He wants to see him develop. And then he fired his play caller and he fired his head coach. And now there's guys working with Ellinger

who have never worked with him before. Not going to help him. So again, like if anything in this game, I'm on like all unders for the Colts team total. I'm like Colts under 10 and a half Colts under seven and a half, taking huge odds and seeing if they just cannot move the ball at all. The Pat's thing's weird. Cause they're per play stuff is bad,

but they also have like the fourth most 20 plus plays in the league. So they have either explosive plays or basically they should just kneel the ball. And those are the two options. Which is definitely how you're supposed to build an offense around Mac Jones, right? It's just like deep shots or nothing. That's right. Yeah. Raiders-Cowboys parlay is plus 110.

There's been action on the Raiders today. The Raiders line moved from minus five to minus four and a half. I'm sorry. There's been action on the Colts. Yes. People are on the Colts. Yes. People are betting the Colts. I don't get it. I don't understand it. And we won't be doing it here.

Yeah. The Waller and Renfro news mattered to people because of matchups. Has anyone watched Renfro this year? He's done nothing. Has anyone seen Waller this year? He's like barely played. Like what? How are they any different?

Max still in. The real wide receiver too for the Raiders. Before we go, Chargers-Niners feels like a mild stay away to me. You can make a case

for both sides. I don't really know what I'm getting with the Chargers team, which seems like it's getting healthier. It feels like this could be a Niners

put themselves on the map on a Sunday night. Like, oh my God, here they are, the real contender. They won by 20. Or like what we've seen with the Chargers all year where they look like shit, but they're hanging around.

And it's like, how are they down three? Like, what's going on? Herbert's been hit 28 times and now they have the ball and they have a chance to win. So to me, it's a stay away. Yeah, I feel the exact same way. I like the Niners a lot coming into this game, circled the matchup,

thought I would get myself like a four and a half, and then I would take it for San Francisco, and then it opened much higher than I expected. So I put them in teaser spots. This, we joke that there's no better play caller in the league in terms of taking advantage of your linebackers, your second level than Kyle Shanahan, right? Like it's just, he finds some dude in your second level can't move too good and just hammers him every run play,

every pass play, find 53, find 57, whoever it is. Now you're going into the Chargers linebacker room, which might be the worst in the league, Drew Tranquil and Kenneth Murray. It feels like a spot where offense is so easy for Kyle. So now we're asking the question, does Justin keep the Chargers in this game? And good news, Justin appeals like he's healthier week in and week out. Seems like he's playing better. They're finding a little bit more accuracy, a little bit more rhythm in the passing game. Bad news, Storm Norton might play this game. And if Storm

Norton is playing a game, I do not want a piece of Los Angeles Chargers. So some injury news that you'd like to see for the Chargers when we get closer. But I like Niners and teaser legs right now. Like the Niners to be able to put a ton of points on this Chargers second level not suited to playing a team like San Francisco. I'm probably going to

parlaying Dallas and the Niners and then sweating out the Niners Chargers and just having a heart attack right? You're going to have Kyle take a 13 point lead in a halftime and then for some reason be only up to with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter for no reason. And I don't hedge at halftime even though it's like this is the perfect time to hedge like now I'm going to be only up two with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter for no reason. And I don't hedge at halftime, even though it's like, this is the perfect time to hedge.

You're like, nah, I'm going to ride it out. Who's your favorite big dog this week? Do you have one? Jacksonville? Jacksonville is my favorite big dog that I like. I've been talking myself into and out of Houston against the Giants. Just Houston coming off of a long rest coming off of Thursday night. Davis Mills in this Houston offense has been weirdly good when pressured.

They haven't played a ton of man coverage teams. So when they do play man coverage teams against the Bears, against the Chargers, scored 24 points, Chargers scored 20 against the Bears, covered that game, covered against the Jags, another man coverage heavy team. So Mills against pressure man teams has been, that's when he's been at his best.

So I feel a little bit like Houston over 17 and a half. Team totals, something I already have. Plus five and a half I've looked at a lot. I don't want to pull the trigger because I know what Houston is and I know what the Giants are. It's tough. I bet on them a couple weeks ago. It's brutal. They're just catch Houston on the wrong week. It's like

a cross off 10 minutes into the game. I looked at them too because for the same thing you did, it's like, eh, anybody can beat the Giants. If you're plus 5 or you're plus 170 for the game, it's like the Giants could, Danny Dimes could just suck.

My thought on this one is that if the Texans win, usually when you have an underdog winning or an underdog covering, you expect the total to be under. I think if the Texans win, it's an over game. I think if the Texans win, then Mills you have an underdog winning or an underdog covering, you expect the total to be under. I think if the Texans win, it's an over game. I think if the Texans win, then Mills has a good game because he's winning

against man coverage. Brandon Cook's potentially back for this one. And then, yeah, they're both going to be run heavy teams. So look at these run defenses. They give up explosive plays.

So it might be a lot of Damian Pierce, Saquon Barkley, but they're still scoring fast because there's nobody tackling in the second and third level. And so if it's a Texans

win spot, I like it as an over. All right. Solak, good to see you. Yep. Good luck this week. All right. Million dollar picks. Week 10. Last week, we lost a little bit. We lost 100K because the Carolina Panthers last week.

Never betting on them again. You're dead to me, Carolina Panthers. Down 1.67 million for the season. Winning it back today. This is the week. We're going to Germany. We have to go to Germany to get our money back. Seattle, plus three, fifth in DVOA, second in defensive DVOA the last four weeks, playing this Tampa team that if the Rams just get a first down in the last two minutes of the game, they lose and we're having what's wrong with Tampa conversations all week. Instead, Tampa's favored by three

against the Seattle team that has been money for us. A million dollar picks, young team, know how to tackle, great rookie running back, quarterback playing well, well coached. Tampa in the red zone, 13 touchdowns total the whole season, 22 field goals. I just think Seattle's better. I think Seattle should be favored in this game. We were putting 600 K on Seattle plus three. And then the other game I love Dallas and green Bay green Bay is done.

We just talked about it with Ben Solak. Uh, it's a wrap. They're banged up offensive lines, banged up skill position guys, which weren't even good to begin with. They're banged up. Offensive lines banged up. Skill position guys, which weren't even good to begin with, they're banged up. Aaron Jones might not play. Rogers looks like he's checked out. You have this Dallas team with this awesome defense going into Lambeau. Are we sure there's going to be all Green Bay fans at this game? It feels like there's going to be some Dallas fans at this game. If you thought this Packers season couldn't get more depressing, I have news for you. It's about to, because we're going to have a Dallas ass kicking in Green Bay with bummed out fans and slightly more Cowboys fans than maybe anybody expected.

So we're going to take the Dallas money line and we're putting it with two different bets. The first one, Vegas. I'm not happy about this either. Vegas is favored over the Colts right now. The line's minus four and a half. This is a bet against the Colts. I don't even care. This isn't a bet on Vegas. This is a bet on the Colts opponent. The Colts just hired a TV analyst to coach their team from ESPN.

I would have picked Mina Kimes. They picked Jeff Saturday, whatever. I guess he used to play there. He's never coached past high school. He has no idea what he's walking into. They've fired half of their coaching staff already. They have a quarterback who I watched last week against my Patriots who literally couldn't do anything. They can't block. And their defense is mediocre. I don't know how they have three wins. They are to me, the worst team in the league. They're 31st in DVOA. It feels like that should be worse. And this is just a blind bet against the Colts in this ridiculous Jeff Saturday experiment.

That feels like the NFL version of tanking, if you want to be honest. I got Dallas and Vegas plus 110 as a parlay. Boaches have to win. We're putting 300K on that. And then the other one, we're putting 300K on Dallas Moneyline. Jacksonville adjusted line on Fandle plus 14 and a half in Kansas City. I think they hang around this game.

Jacksonville, they lead the league in first downs right now. 203 first downs. They move the ball and then they screw up inside the 10-yard line. Maybe that won't happen as much this week. Kansas City, big emotional night game last week, feeling great about themselves after holding off Tennessee, but they did play five quarters. Maybe they're overlooking this Jacksonville team a little bit. Who knows?

I think Jacksonville can hang around. We can move Jacksonville to plus 14 and a half. Dallas Moneyline parlay plus 113. We're putting 300K on that as well. And then we have two underdog parlays. We're riding the Cleveland Browns this week. They're playing Miami plus three and a half. Cleveland right now, they're three and five, but they blew the Jets game, the Atlanta game, and the Chargers game. They really are three plays away from me in six and two. And that Nick Chubb not falling down against the Jets.

I mean, you go through it, like they're hanging around these games. I think they could potentially beat Miami. They have the 50 VOA in the last four weeks. Miami's got some wins where they have, they seem like they have more momentum than maybe is reasonable. Beat Pittsburgh by six. Beat Detroit by four.

Beat Chicago by three. Congratulations. I think Cleveland, I don't know if they're going to win this game, but I think they could. So we take them with the Vikings playing in Buffalo. I don't know what to expect from Josh Allen, but the Vikings, they only have one loss this season. They're three and a half point Vikings playing in Buffalo. I don't know what to expect from Josh Allen, but the Vikings, they only have one loss this season. They're three and a half point

underdogs in Buffalo. Why couldn't they beat Buffalo? Who knows? Put Browns-Vikings together, plus 520. Grabbing that, putting 33K on that. And then a little same game parlay. The Browns, the over of the game, 49 and a half with the Dolphins.

That game's going to have points, probably. And then a Nick Chubb anytime touchdown. Plus 645, putting 33K on that as well. Who knows? A little flyer on the Browns. We'll see what happens. But we love Seattle and we love Dallas and Lambeau this week.

And that's where we're going to make our money. Those are the Million Dollar Picks for week 10. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Verno. Thanks to House. Thanks to Solak. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. I will see you on this feed on Sunday night.

And if you want to hear me a little bit before that, White Lotus episode three, we're going to be breaking it down in the Prestige TV podcast right after it's done on HBO. So around 7 p.m. Pacific, 10 p.m. East Coast time, that will be going up, episode three. And by the way, episode three is a banger. Just telling you. All right.

Have a good weekend. I'll see you on Sunday. I don't have.