The Bill Simmons Podcast - Best NFL Sleeper Candidates With Kevin Clark and Raheem Palmer, Plus Heidi Gardner on the Chiefs and SNL

Episode Date: September 7, 2022

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kevin Clark to discuss NFL playoff sleeper teams (5:09), then Bill talks with Raheem Palmer about the best sleeper-team playoffs odds, favorite NFL Week 1 bets, futures bets, and more (43:45). Finally, Bill talks with Heidi Gardner of 'Saturday Night Live' about the Chiefs, Heidi's unique journey to joining the cast of 'SNL', her role in Netflix's 'Hustle', and more (1:17:23). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Kevin Clark, Raheem Palmer, and Heidi Gardner Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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and helplines available. And listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this. It's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the

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Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where we launched our second local sports podcast of the past couple weeks. You know, Off the Pike with Brian Barrett, our Boston sports podcast, which is off to a great start. I think I'm hopping on there, win or lose, after Sunday's Pats game, just for like 15 minutes to vent.

Or to celebrate. Who knows? Who knows what's going to happen? We also launched the Ringers Philly Special. I hate the title. It just burns an amber into my soul. But I think it's going to be an awesome podcast. Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak, they are breaking down the Eagles all week on that feed to celebrate the launch. And then during the season, Sundays, Sheil and Ben are going to be

reacting to whatever Eagles game happened, unless it's a Monday night. And then during the week, they're going to have a midweek kind of State of the Eagles every week. And we'll see. A lot of people like the Eagles this year as a Super Bowl contender. So that's happening. And then once the Sixers season gets a little closer, we'll have some announcements on that.

But that feed is going to be pretty lively. Boston, Philly. We have New York, New York with John Jastrzemski. And then the full go with a depressed Jason Goff, who is hoping the Bears don't go 0-1-17. Maybe they'll win some games. Who knows? So we have all that.

We also have Slow News Day moving into video podcast form with Kevin Clark. That launched this week. He's going to be on the podcast in a second to talk about it. We're going to try to figure out the best sleeper of the 2022 season. One of my favorite exercises. It always, it has to be an out of nowhere team. You can't say like the saints are a sleeper. It can't be a team that's been discussed. It has to be a team that people held up, they sniffed, they made a look, a gross look on their face, and then they discarded it. So I'm going to explain to you why I feel very strongly about who this year's sleeper is

because I date, check all the boxes on my little formula that I have dating back to the 2000s when I was writing for ESPN.com. So Kevin Clark, then Raheem Palmer from the Ringer Gambling Show,

we're going to, he's going to give his take on the biggest sleeper and then we're going to talk about some week one value before we head toward the end of the week and where the sharps are going. And then last but not least,

somebody I've wanted to have on for a long time, Heidi Gardner from Saturday Night Live, who is a massive Chiefs fan, loves sports. And I heard her on another podcast and I got jealous. So she's coming on and it's really fun. It was great to see her. So there you go. Action-packed podcast.

But before we get to it, I have an early million dollar pick for you. It's a little, I'm jumping the gun. Usually we're going to be doing million dollar picks this year on Thursdays. Peter Schrager and Ben Solak are going to be part of it this year. Slightly revamped system, but it's all going to lead to the same place. Dollar signs, my friends. Dollar signs. But I couldn't resist. The Thursday podcast is going to go up probably after the Rams game because I want to react to it.

So I want to get in on that Rams game. I have been making the case for the last couple of weeks that I think the Bills are a contender. I think they are one of the seven or eight Super Bowl teams that could make it happen. But I don't know why they are being discussed as the contender to the point that

they're now favored in this Rams game, which is in LA. I don't understand it at all. I just don't get the value. I would have this game as either a pick-em or a Rams by one. And if I had to pick who's going to win, I would pick the Rams.

So what we're going to do, just to have some fun with million dollar picks on Thursday, the Rams are plus two and a half on FanDuel. We are going to tease them to eight and a half, six point tease. So Rams plus eight and a half, and we're going to tease them with the Kansas City Chiefs because I'm not all in enough on them this season, but we are going to tease them. Kansas City is in Arizona. They're laying five and a half points. That line's moved a little bit. And we're going to tease them down to plus zero and a half.

So that's it. $250,000 to start the season as part of Million Dollar Picks. Rams plus eight and a half. Chiefs plus zero and a half. So basically, they just have to win by one or tie. And that is how we're starting off with a little appetizer, like a little pigs in the blanket for million dollar picks.

And we're gonna talk about that game with Raheem Palmer a little bit later. Kevin Clark coming up next, then Heidi Gardner last. Looking forward to it. I think we need to bring in our friends from Pearl Jam. All right. What a summer for Kevin Clark.

Ringer F1 podcast is hosting that. The Magic won the lottery. They got Paolo. They might have done that correctly. That happened. Now it's his own football podcast launching. Slow News Day launches this week, which basically blew out the Slow News Day video series, and now it will become a podcast slash video series.

What else is going to happen to you this year? A lot of things. I'm moving. It's great. It's all great. You saw Pearl Jam in person? I saw Pearl Jam. They still got it. The video pod is going to be amazing. We just

wrapped up with Mina. We have Mina, Bryce Young, Desmond Howard, Andrew Whitworth tomorrow launching, I think, around noon Eastern time. It's great. We're going to talk a little more college ball on this one, which is something I've wanted to do for a long time. So we'll have Andy Staples on Friday. We'll talk recruiting. We can get you on there now that you're highly invested. Yeah, stories as a parent.

Yeah, exactly. You can butter up the recruiting guys. You could bend that fifth star in a couple years. That sounds great. Alright, I brought you on for a specific mission that is not F1 related. Every year there is a team that we can't believe

made the playoffs. We can't believe it as it's happening. We're all staring at each other in disbelief. When I used to have my column back when my fingers used to write, I really prided myself into picking this team every year. And it was always that nobody saw this coming. Nobody believed in them.

But now that the football is being dissected 24 seven, it's hard to see this stuff coming because everybody's making the case for everybody. And New Orleans can become this juggernaut pick and it's like,'s making the case for everybody. And New Orleans can become this juggernaut pick and it's like, oh, watch out for them. They're three to one to win the NFC South. Watch out here. And then you hear the case for them for four days. The Eagles, they Super Bowl head train with them. We're not interested in that exercise here. We're trying to figure out who is the team, the WTF team of the 2022 playoffs.

We have more playoff spots now, 14. It's easier for somebody to sneak in there. I sent you some prep. Yes. I was shocked. There was, there was teams that I even forgot where I was like, Oh my God,

I forgot that Washington won the NFC East. That's it with seven and nine record. That I forgot that Washington won the NFC East with a 7-9 record I forgot that too I went to a Washington Carolina preseason game on my camp tour just because it was just geographically it worked out and I was sitting there thinking like this is there was nobody in the stands

the media there were coming up to me like what are you doing here like what's like something wrong like are you working on something and? What's, like, is something wrong? Are you working on something? And I was sitting there saying, this is the most hopeless situation in the world. And then I remembered that two years ago,

not only did they make the playoffs, they kind of gave it to the Bucs a little bit. They did. What was it, Taylor Heineke? He kind of had a moment. I mean, if there is a Tyler Heineke game, it was that. Well, we don't have to worry about seeing Washington

in the playoffs this year, fortunately, for all of us. So I sent you a list of teams. Yeah. I separated them into two categories. I kind of can't believe it, but there's a piece of you that does, right? And for me, the demarcation line was basically 2-1 because you can find all these odds on Fandle.

So Miami is plus 142. I'd be a little surprised because I'm not a Tua guy, but I also wouldn't be shocked because they're fast, new coach. Who knows? Cleveland's plus 170. I guess the case for them, if they could just hold on until Deshaun comes back, if they're like 5 and 7 or whatever.

I don't personally think that happened. I can see it. Vegas is plus 170. I think a lot of people actually believe in Vegas, so they're out. Arizona is plus 118. I'd actually be very surprised if they made the playoffs, but plus 118 means I'm

probably too feverish is that because of the division or because of the homework clause or because of the talent I didn't like the Kyler stuff at all I didn't like that they humiliated their quarterback right after they signed him to a staggering amount of money I don't like how they ended the last two seasons

I don't think they're well coached I don't like that Hopkins is out for six weeks. I think they've missed on some of their big picks, which always makes me nervous when you just miss on, you know, the 17th pick in the draft. What else am I missing? No, you pretty much got it. It's pretty much a clean sweep.

You're right. Yeah, they just feel like a middle-of-the-road team. No Hopkins for six weeks, a big deal. And then the last kind of can't-believe-it team a team is the giants who Raheem is coming up after you. And he's been bullish on them all summer. They're plus two 25 to make the playoffs. I don't know. I mean, I listen to the fact I really like Brian Daybull spent a lot of time with him in the past, the way that, that, that Buffalo basically tried to flush their entire roster over the first two years. Like Brandon Bean, I think after the first year,

took the biggest cap hit in the history of football to get rid of a bunch of Doug Whaley contracts. I don't think that the Giants themselves have high expectations for this year because they're kind of going on the Buffalo method. So I don't want to have higher expectations than the actual organization, if that makes sense. So I thought about putting them in the I cannot believe it category. But I think team,

everybody's so desperate to find an NFC East team that this has led to this Eagle Super Bowl hype train that now has led to a Philly podcast on the ringer. And so I can't quite put them in there. I have seven teams in the cannot believe it category. I'm just going to rip through them and then we'll go through them one at a time. Pittsburgh plus 330.

Jacksonville plus 450. Carolina four to one. Detroit plus 410. Seattle five to one. Jets plus 710. And Houston 15 to one. There's some teams I cut out, like Houston and Chicago,

because they're not making the playoffs. So we'll go one by one. I crossed off Pittsburgh because everything I've read about the offensive line has absolutely put the fear of God in me. And I think their division is really good with Baltimore and Cincinnati. I wanted to talk myself into it. I like Flores being there. The post Ben Roethlisberger season, they hit on the pick and pick.

They have some blue chip dudes like Watt, people like that. I get it. Couldn't quite get there. It's top heavy. It's top heavy. They've got some absolute superstars, but then there's not a lot of B-plus players there. You mentioned the offensive line.

George Pickens is unbelievable. I was watching team reps with the Steelers the two days I was there, and I was upset. I don't know if you've ever seen this, but I was upset when he wasn't in because I'm like, I want to see this guy

boss some random third-year defensive back. That was amazing to see, and I've never really felt like that with a rookie, but it was amazing to see. Tomlinson never had a losing season, so I don't think they're going to be awful, but I just think that it's, you know, I did a piece

with their GM a couple weeks ago, and I'm just looking at the roster and some of their, some of the ways that they played last year, and I just don't see it. We're aligned. So I wasn't that scared by Trubisky, who I'm not a fan of, but I felt like they had... Trubisky's an upgrade.

Well, that's the thing. He's an upgrade over Roethlisberger. That's why I wasn't that scared. But if you're giving him a bad offensive line, I'm not scared. Well, that's the thing. He's an upgrade over Roethlisberger. That's why I wasn't that scared. But if you're giving him a bad offensive line, I'm not scared. So we're crossing them off. Jacksonville plus 450 took a long look at.

Weird division. I think Tennessee's going to stink. Is that your team? So that's my... So you gave me two categories. And the cannot believe it category, which is the longer shots, Jacksonville, far and away. I've made this case over the course of the summer

that, first of all, Urban Meyer is as bad as it gets. I know that's not exactly a new point, but you think about that as a literal impossible environment to succeed in. It's funny because I did a lot of reporting around Joe Burrow this year and last year, and just about how he took

a franchise that didn't want to spend money in the past, that didn't have an indoor practice facility, didn't have a name on a stadium. I just saw the other day, it's going to be called Paycor Stadium and they're doing it just to be able to raise money basically for Joe Burrow's contract. My idea, by the way, quick tangent, is the company Paycor should just sponsor Joe Burrow's contract. Don't put the name on the building. Just have Joe Burrow's contract sponsored by Paycor. That's better bang for your buck, right? Is that legal?

That sounds amazing. What an amazing idea. I don't know. I mean, it's better than getting the naming rights at the Bengal Stadium. Just give them the money. Just give them the money. Mike Brown, free idea.

I like it. But when I was doing the reporting around Burrow, I realized two things. Number one, Zach Taylor was a good enough coach to let Joe Burrow change the culture. Urban Meyer was not good enough. If Trevor Lawrence was going to be a culture changer, Urban Meyer was too bad a coach, too big an asshole, too big a distraction to help with anything. And the other thing is the wide receivers. Because in the second year, he had Tyler Boyd, T. Higgins, and Jamar Chase. Everything changed. And so much of the story I did a couple weeks ago about his ability to throw the deep ball,

a lot of it was just the receiver's understanding. And you look at some of the data last year. You look at the tape. Don't even look at the data. And you see he was throwing into impossible windows. Guys who were just not open. There were some stats out there that he was throwing into perfectly covered situations as much as anybody and doing it as well as anybody.

It's just he didn't have windows to throw it into so this year they at least get some professionalism i know christian kirk was an overpay but there's some professionalism on on the roster it's at least improved and i i i just think there it can only go up the tape guys say he played as a top half quarterback last year um doug peterson went on serious xM and compared him to Brett Favre from a maturity standpoint this morning, which by the way, kind of a weird thing to say

about Brett Favre's maturity. But no, I just love, I love the direction the franchise is headed in. And if you're giving me that list, that's where I'm starting. It's funny because he looks so bad in that last Patriots game near the end of the season.

And then the next week was the famous Wentz game. That's going to be a documentary probably someday when Indianapolis blew the playoffs. And I thought he was good in that game. Lawrence. And there was like real signs like, oh, okay. This guy's not going to at least... I don't want to say I thought he was going to be a bust,

but it did start to enter our minds there. But then you just figure, ah, this is the most fucked up situation. Any young QB is probably ever been in the modern NFL era. So it makes sense that he would have struggled. When Brandon Bean was drafting Josh Allen, he did study right beforehand and basically said like, why do quarterbacks fail?

And he found that overwhelmingly, and there's a chicken and egg thing here, but overwhelmingly the quarterbacks who fail are put into unstable environments and they change coordinators every single year and they change position coaches every single year, head overwhelmingly, the quarterbacks who fail are put into unstable environments, and they change coordinators every single year, and they change position coaches every single year, head coaches, GM, and they said, okay, we think Josh Allen's pretty good, but the one thing we know we're going to do is don't change a damn thing. Everything stays, and we stay on course, and we go from there. I know firing a head coach after a year isn't ideal, but just give Trevor Lawrence a stable environment. Just don't think about...

I mean, I'm not a fan of Trent Baalke at all at GM. I think he's awful. And I think that he's just a symptom of something that's gone on with the past 10 years with how bad of a GM he is. But I just want Trevor Lawrence to have two stable years and just see what he has before we label him anything. It's funny.

They're plus 450 to make the playoffs. But on Fandle, they're plus 750 to win the division. And I like that bet more. Because I don't think we're getting two playoff teams from the AFC South. I'm out on Tennessee. Raheem and I are going to talk about that in a second. I'm just out. I'm shorting them.

I'm out. So then it's the Colts, which I guess we just have to hand the AFC South to. And I don't know, like it's, it's not like that's a slam dunk. So I do feel like could they be, could we have like a seven and nine AFC South winner? We could.

And now listen, the Colts have a high ceiling. I just saw like the classic new quarterback story, which is that Matt Ryan's been, been chewing out the team. He's been taking on a leadership role in Indy. Didn't realize he was going to ingratiate himself into this team this fast.

He's a veteran. He's really becoming a vocal leader just right off the bat. Really impressive to see. No, I think that the ceiling is quite high in Indianapolis when you consider the roster and just Matt Ryan's talents and having Frank Reich as an offensive play caller. But I can also see everybody kind of having

a pretty low ceiling. There's a scenario where that happens. I still really like Tennessee. I think it's just going to be really bunched up, but I also think I would not be surprised

if the Jaguars won nine games and smashed and grabbed this division. And I wouldn't be... I had, when Sal and I did AFC over-unders, I had under for Indy and Tennessee

and over for Jacksonville and Houston. I think Houston might be a whiff better than people think, but, you know, could they get to six wins? Maybe. All right, rest of the list. Detroit plus 410. No.

The hard knocks thing has gotten people a little... Their nipples a little hard about Detroit. They were the top futures ticket in all of July at one of the sportsbooks. I see the case. They're going to have an awesome offensive line. They're going to be able to run the ball. Goff's not as bad

as people think. They've drafted pretty well the last couple years. I just don't see it with the defense and with Goff. It's the defense. We've seen it. Goff can get you somewhere with basic competence, especially in the last half of the season when Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson were taking more of a play calling

duties over. But the defense is not where it needs to be. I went there. I visited with those guys. Aaron Glenn wants to be top half defense this year. He's a DC, but that's not. We need to be top 10 for Jared Goff to be in a playoff game. And I think that division, I don't like green Bay, Minnesota four times. If I don't have a good defense, that's rough. Um, yeah. Crossing them off Seattle five to one.

No, I got excited to talk myself into this, but okay. We have Seattle people in our life who are realistic about their teams. I do. I just got off of Zoom with one of them. Yeah, I don't want to name those people because that Seattle message board community can be a little vigorous. But everybody's like, it's not happening this year. Even if you like Geno,

this is going to take some time to rebuild the infrastructure of having enough good young players to go 11-6 or 10-7, whatever it takes. I'll say this about Seattle fans' mindsets. When Mina found out that guest after was Bryce Young, all

she wanted to do was pitch Bryce Young on coming. So, I think that everybody's taking the year off in Seattle right now. I think there's a case to be made. If it was a better quarterback, there's a case to be made. There could be a little bit, you know, you could throw a Ewing theory thing on there. But even though Russell Wilson won a Super Bowl,

but like it's, I don't, I just think it's a total teardown. I don't think that the infrastructure is good enough. It does feel that way. And Juan Benyama is coming in the draft. Like, wait, what sport are we talking about? I forget. No, I think it's, I'm with you.

I think more likely te down than 9-7 or 10-7. 100%. They were not even consideration. I kicked the tires on it, though. I really wanted to make it happen. I just couldn't get there. Jets plus 7-10. As you know, I like to look at the coach and the QB

and the Salah-Zack Wilson combo. That is not going to be my sleeper routine. And everybody's talking about how they crushed the draft. and the Salah-Zack Wilson combo, that is not going to be my sleeper team. And everybody's talking about how they crushed the draft. The running back they took that I think everybody thought was going to be awesome, like just didn't have a good preseason. So the whole crushed the draft thing, we might have to put the brakes on that.

I know they had a couple of good first round picks, but... I will say this. It's very rare. I think Dave Gettleman did it once and the Mayock guy, the Mayock-Gruden regime did it. But it's very rare to I think Dave Gettleman did it once and the Mayock guy, the Mayock Gruden regime did it. But it's very rare to have two first round picks and not come away as having quote unquote crushed the draft.

You just take two guys, one of them slips and everybody's like, oh yeah, hell yeah, they crushed the draft. It's actually an accomplishment when you don't crush the draft with two first round picks.

Didn't the Chiefs have two first round picks this year? Why don't they get crushed in draft buzz? What did they do? They got left out of the crushed draft buzz. All right, Houston 15-1. No. I think we both think

that's not happening. All right. Where are you on Davis Mills? As like a 2014 Flacco kind of game of the three-step drop, chuck it 40 yards downfield. That's about it.

My only thing, and this is something that I've talked about with the NFL folks a lot, is like it's a realistic rebuild. They know it's a total teardown. They're just shipping away. It's kind of a self-aware rebuild, right? So it's I do like the direction they're heading in. They're Casario, and I guess

their coach is going to be Lovey Smith for the next couple of years. That is, that is something to consider, but at least they're okay in the right direction. Yeah. When we come back, I'm going to give you my pick for the cannot believe the team. The start of the NFL season is here in the best place to practice your

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All right, we're back. And the smart listeners, the one who really paid attention for the first 17 minutes of this podcast, they know that I left out a team. I read the seven teams from the cannot believe it list, but I intentionally left out one team. That team was the Carolina Panthers, who are four to one.

Why are you groaning? I haven't even made the... You're making noises already. I can't wait to argue with you about this. That's fine. Because I have another team in that category that we're going to go back and forth on. I'm really excited about this.

Plus 400 to make the playoffs. I'm going to give you the case. I've rehearsed it. Nathan Fielder style. I evened it Nathan Fielder style. I even have the Nathan Fielder group. So I'm just going to get through this. I have six bullet points I want to get through and you give me your reaction at the end. Wonderful.

The case for Carolina to make the playoffs. 4-1. Matt Rule, year three. First two years at Baylor, 8-17. Levin wins third season. First two years at Baylor, 8-17. Levin wins third season. First two years at Temple, 8-16. Won 10 games in year three.

Matt Rule is a year three guy. I have very little evidence to back that up other than that stat. Last year, the Panthers were 3-0. Yeah. Blew a couple close games. The wheels came off. McCaffrey got hurt. All of a sudden, Cam Newton was back, who was done three years ago.

He goes 0-5. McCaffrey missed 10 games. I'm going to give you a quiz. Okay. Touchdowns Picks Fumbles Those are the three categories In descending order

I'm going to give you The numbers 21 16 And 14 Which one do you think Was touchdowns Which one do you think

Was fumbles Which one do you think Was picks For Carolina quarterbacks Last year 21 16 14

Alright I'm going to guess 21 were the picks. Correct. I'm going to guess 16 was the touchdowns. You were wrong. It was 14. 14 touchdowns, 21 picks, and 16 fumbles. That was

their quarterback position last year. Can I push back on a number of things here? Number one... I'm not done. I'm going through my rehearsal. I got four bullet points left. They bring in Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield,

2020. 11-5 on the Browns. Made round two. Came within... What? Why are you making a face? No, no, no. This is the one point I'm 100% with you on. Baker. Came within a chest hair of beating the Chiefs.

Remember who is the backup quarterback? Chad Henney comes in and has to make like a third down throw. The Browns are lingering. Baker Mayfield that year, 26 touchdowns, eight picks. So was hurt last year. Played hurt the whole year. Gamer. Yes. Yes. Shouldn't have been out there. They kept throwing him out there. So at least we know healthy Baker Mayfield,

he's not going to throw 21 picks and fumble the ball 16 times and throw 14 touchdowns. It is an upgrade. Next, you're going to laugh. New offensive coordinator, Ben McAdoo. Kind of a punchline. That was one of my bullet points.

Gets fired second year during the Giants season, which was basically Eli's last day. And Eli was like Roethlisberger last year in the Steelers. But 2016, Ben McAdoo's first year as head coach for the Giants with a washed up Eli. They go 11-5. They're 8-3 in one score games. They're one of the least penalized teams in the league.

The two years before that, they were 13th in points in 2014. They were 6th in points in 2015 with Ben McAdoo. Last year's offensive coordinator, they just fired him with like, what, Joe Brady with like four games to go? They just told him to leave. Coordinators never get fired with like, but they were like, hey, here's your check.

You're done. He's going to be better than that guy. Right? I don't know if that's true. I also think that part of the Joe Brady firing was that he wasn't running enough. It was a philosophical difference with Matt Rule and that he wasn't running the ball enough. There were some real

questions around Joe Brady's firing. He's the quarterback's coach now in Buffalo, by the way. I would not assume that Ben McAdoo is an upgrade over Joe Brady. I would not. Well, I can tell you this, Kevin Clark. He will get along with his coach better than Joe Brady did. I have

three more bullet points. They have two legit skill guys. McCaffrey, who is going to be probably the highest paid auction guy in whatever fantasy draft this year. And DJ Moore, who's quiet, boring, every year has 1,200 yards. So two guys that I like. That's good for Mayfield. McCaffrey come back. I'm not sure he's going to have quite the same usage rate, but if he's at least healthy, he's still one of the 10 best running backs. They drafted, and I'm going to screw this name up. Icky.

Icky. Okay, Icky. They drafted him sixth in the NFL draft this year, which you might have watched, as a left tackle. So that's short. We'll find out from him against Miles Garrett in week one. I count four elite guys in their defense.

Burns, Thompson, Horn, and Chin. That's good. That's something. Plus, like, the two guys we don't know are awesome yet, who I'm sure are in there. Here's their QB opponent schedule. This is my last thing for you.

They play four really good QBs. Stafford, Burrow, Lamar, and Wilson. And they play Brady twice, of course. So there's six out of the 17 games we know they're going against a good quarterback, assuming none of those guys get hurt. They play Jameis twice. They play Mariota twice. They play Kyler without Hopkins in the first five weeks. They play Trey Lance I don't know what to expect from him They play Brissette

Daniel Jones, Trubisky Jared Goff And Geno Smith Ten and seven Okay, that was an extremely compelling case And it was significantly better Than I thought it was going to be They're not on my list for a number of reasons.

Before I start going through it, I do want to say I completely agree with you on Baker. There's a lot of people who say two things. Number one, this is what a lot of guys would look like if they played as hurt as Baker was last year. It wasn't just the shoulder, it was the foot too. There's an argument to be made that if he

shut it down, he would have made a hell of a lot more money. He didn't want to, as you said, gamer, and just the fact that he's just going to play better this year. And he's pissed off. And a guy like Baker, when he's pissed off, is going to play better. The biggest thing for me that's keeping me from Panthers hype

is I don't really know anybody who said a good thing in the NFL about Matt Rule, about anything that he's done that's impressed them at any level. And it's flipped because there are guys in the college world who swear that Matt rule crushed evals in recruiting and the way he was able to scout for guys who were fast, who were going to develop into NFL guys was really astounding. Um, when you talk to guys who follow recruiting really well. And so I'd heard that, you know, 18 months ago, whatever, and think, okay, Matt rules really got it. You know, he uses analytics, he uses a bunch of different

stuff and it just hasn't shown up there at all. I don't think he's a good in-game manager. I don't think he inspires guys. Well, I just, I don't think Ben McAdoo is a good offensive coordinator. I think Baker's going to be the bright spot here. I just think you think about David Tepper, a guy you think about a lot as far as just kind of a modern owner. If things start to go south, man, they can go south real fast with a guy who wants to win now, who will spend to win now. I mean, it was funny because I was doing a story last year and somebody said to me, this is not a new thing. I've heard it it before but there's three types of owners owners who spend

know how to win and do win owners who don't want to win don't spend you know don't even care you know the type and then the third group is the group that spends wants to win and hasn't figured out how okay like the cons in Jacksonville

are a good example of this David Tepper is another one of these guys he's committed to winning he just doesn't figured out how. Okay? Like the cons in Jacksonville are a good example of this. David Tepper is another one of these guys. He's committed to winning. He just doesn't figure out how to win. Okay? And for me, I think that that means

you're going to see a quicker trigger finger if they start out 0-2. And I think that everybody in that building starts to feel that at some point. Good point.

Here's my counter. First five weeks, home against Cleveland and Jacoby Brissett, who by the way, was unplayable last year. You saw it. Week two at the Giants. Week three, home for New Orleans.

Week four, home for Arizona. Well, that's still a Jameis. Jameis and Carolina home for New Orleans. Week four, home for Arizona without... Yeah. Well, that's still a Jameis. Yeah. Jameis in Carolina was like, oh my God, Jameis threw four picks. Jesus. Week four, Arizona, no DeAndre Hopkins in Carolina.

Kyler Murray outdoors on grass. And then week five, San Francisco at Carolina. Trey Lance. That could be four and one. You've made an incredibly compelling case. I'm almost on board, if not for the fact that my team like that, it's the Dolphins, which you don't even like. Well, the last piece of this is just the NFC South, which I think a lot of people have

gravitated toward New Orleans because of the what if 45 year old Brady who just took 10 days off during the middle of the preseason, who retired and unretired and who just seems like he's kind of losing his mind. And top of the offensive line was and a new coach. And who knows when Godwin's going to be 100 percent and they have a tough schedule. And could they just surprisingly not be that good this year? And if so, who's in there? I'm less bullish on the Bucs piece of this because I still think they have so much talent. I can't imagine them not winning the division.

But I do think the Carolina could split with them. And that would help the case because they need to get, I would say nine and eight makes it in the NFC, but 10 and seven, you're good. But I think nine and eight could make it in the NFC because I don't, I don't, I don't see seven,

10 win teams in the NFC. Do you? No, definitely not. I mean, the NFC, the seventh playoff team has, has,

has always been a little soft. And to the point that I'm not like, are we totally sure we needed a seventh playoff team in each conference like this is a lot of those games kind of like this could have been an email kind of thing like it's I don't know man I feel like we could have well I mean the case is we got Ben Roethlisberger

in a playoff game so I would argue from a gambling standpoint it was wonderful defeated Ben Roethlisberger like on Tuesday just out of the podium saying yeah we don't have a chance in this game. Like that was amazing. Also, he didn't even want to play because he did the whole final ride the week before.

He'd done the whole loop around the stadium and he had to get his ass kicked by the Chiefs. That was brutal. If you got an email from his producer asking him to be on his new football podcast, what's it called? Footballin'? Footballin'. Like in Pittsburgh, there's an A-H football podcast. What's it called? Footballin'? Footballin'.

In Pittsburgh. There's an A-H in there. Yep. Football. Yeah, would you go on? Footballin' with Ben Roethlisberger? Or would you say you're so swamped this week with Slow News Day?

I'm so swamped. I tend to keep outside appearances. F1 season. Yeah, I know. I tend to keep outside appearances to longstanding relationships and other ringer things, is what I would say. And I have all the respect in the world for Ben.

But let's take a rain check on this one. Bill's a real hard ass about letting a ringer people appear. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I asked him, he said, no,

I have to ask for approval. And I just, you know, it just gets lost. And, you know, listen, man,

we just ran out of clock this week, Ben. Wouldn't it be amazing if Ben Roethlisberger's podcast was awesome? Yes, it would be. It would be amazing. He's another one. These guys... He just became the new Draymond.

These guys who were never good interviews... I can think of a couple other new examples for this season, but these guys who were never good interviews, what would make people think they would be good at TV or audio? Like Bill Parcells, when he left the Patriots and he went to the Jets, right? And he ran the Jets and what was it? Algrove.

But then there was this moment, maybe it was between the Jets and what was it? Algrove. But then there was this moment. Maybe it was between the Jets and the Cowboys where he had the radio show with Will McDonough. Yeah, yeah. And I used to listen to it. We didn't have like podcasts on demand, any of that stuff. I would literally listen to it on Fridays.

I would build it into my day because it was so helpful with my picks. He was fucking amazing. He would just break down the games and it was like this amazing advantage i'm not going to feel the same about uh the ben roethlisberger podcast i do think that and this is not exactly what we're talking about i do think that the players have a relationships and be like insight i think guys open up to them more like sean payton came on chris long's podcast a couple of months ago and they were talking Payton was giving details

that I don't think a lot of people would give because I think they know it's not going to fall on deaf ears like I don't know like when Sean Payton does Slow News Day he's done it twice great guest but like if he says something complicated about he was talking about special teams I might be like yeah man I don't really follow you know like I'm not

going to do that I'm just going to smile and nod and be like absolutely i get what you're saying but like i think that he's more like okay chris long is here we can just talk ball at a higher level and then it opens up a little bit more so they don't waste it on the common men you're saying that's if you're talking about actual like scheme stuff i think that yes i think that there's there's part of that if it's just like a what we're talking about like it was just like a 20 minute hit, if it's like an hour conversation, you can prove to that person,

you know what you're talking about and you can get granular. But like in a podcast forum, it's easier for a player to get another player or coach to open up. But I don't expect that necessarily from Big Ben on footballing. Footballing?

Before we go, do you agree with my hypothesis that the Bills are slightly overvalued right now? I mean, they're favored in week one against the Rams. What's going on here? I have them winning the division. I don't have them make... I think the Chargers are going to make the Super Bowl from the AFC. I think you're going to see a burrow-like season from Justin Herbert.

I like Ken Dorsey of the new OC. I spent a lot of time with him and Josh up in Rochester where they do camp. I just think that it's a really crowded AFC, and it's going to be, and I know people don't want to hear this, it's going to be a lot of luck and a lot of individual quarterback play in January. I mean, they played literally the perfect offensive game in history against the Patriots, the best defensive coach of all time. No punts, no field goals, no anything, just touchdowns.

A week later, they scored a trillion points, and they lose to the Chiefs. They couldn't have improved on that, and it still didn't get them to where they needed to be. And they've tried. I mean, I've talked to Bean about this. They're engineering their team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. I feel like the AFC's gotten so much deeper that it's

almost going to be kind of random. I'm going with just the guy I think has the highest ceiling this year to put a franchise on his back. And to me, that's Justin Herbert. It's not Tua even though I'm picking the Dolphins to make the playoffs. That is the case. You basically

made my case in a different way. I think the league's really good this year, especially in the top eight or nine. And the way Buffalo is being treated as the favorite, I just don't think there's a favorite. I think you can make a case for seven teams. I think this is the most compelling season I can ever remember.

I know that sounds crazy to say, but you think about not just the depth of the quarterbacks. In 2013, 2014, even 2015, NFL teams couldn't figure out what to do with young quarterbacks. In 2013, 2014, even 2015, NFL teams couldn't figure out what to do with young quarterbacks. The spread was coming in and spread offense was coming in and coaches didn't want to adjust to it

and they were drafting pro-style guys and trying to fit square pegs into round holes and not understanding. I remember Andy Reid, when I was talking about this, he was like, these guys are throwing more at the college level. This is all we ever wanted.

There should be a quarterback revolution and it's not happening, right? Well throwing more at the college level. This is all we ever wanted. There should be a quarterback revolution. That's not happening, right? Well, guess what? It happened. And you now see the depth there with, you know, what half the team in half the teams in the league now have guys who have the capability to be a top three quarterback in a given season. Like that's not an exaggeration.

And so the depth of the quarterback position, the blow up potential in a couple of different spots, not just New England, who have the greatest coaching history of football, or San Francisco, who have one of the best offensive play callers in history, but maybe don't have the quarterback for it. Like, I don't remember a season

where there could be more dominant storylines, if that makes sense. It's always fun when we have good quarterbacks. It's like the NBA. That's what it is. Guess what? The NBA is the most fun when we have like seven or eight superstars at the same time. Then it like the NBA. That's what it is. The NBA is the most fun when we have like

seven or eight superstars at the same time. Then it gets really fun. Everybody gets all mad that the NFL basically rigs the rules for the quarterback. They call it the,

when they're in the little competition committee, they call it the crown, past game is the crown jewel of all sports. Well, guess what? They do that because people like it

and people watch TV. And there was a study done a couple of years ago saying that the number one driver, it's not even teams, the number one indicator of a well-watched NFL game is a high-scoring, close game. That's it. Even if it's the Browns versus the Dolphins in week 14,

people are going to watch it if it's high-scoring and close. And that's why this is as compelling as ever. Who's going to win F1 this year? Verstappen's running away with it. I don't like the look on his face. On Max's face or mine? No, Max's. I don't like the look on his face. He's just

so focused on winning. And I don't think like i i ferrari ferrari screwed it up so badly i think everyone's a little frustrated because it should have actually been a title fight ferrari screwed it up so badly they have no interest in improving their culture or their uh technical their strategy whatever it is uh it's just it's a complete mess it's the kind of thing where if there was a, like, if this was an American sports team,

everybody would, A, be fired, but would have been fired three weeks ago. But because it's F1, it moves a little more slowly. So I'm not sure where that goes with Ferrari.

What, what quarterback is Verstappen? So, Brett Veach, the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs, huge F1 sicko. He will at some point come on the F1 show He told me last year

He got everybody in the Chiefs into F1 Specifically Into Red Bull Because he said Brady is Hamilton The Chiefs and Verstappen are The Chiefs and Mahomes are Verstappen and Red Bull

That's the analogy. And I do think that there's, when you think about the way that Red Bull identified how good Verstappen was and built the entire team around him really early, before he was a world champion

and said, this is it. Like, this is our guy. We're going to do everything we can to make him not only the number one driver, but the number one driver in the world. There's a lot of similarities. Although Christian Horner is a different guy than Andy Reid. I'll say that.

Who's Mitch Trubisky? I'd say a driver who... A driver on a second chance who I think maybe Pierre Gasly. You need an awesome team around him and you might be able to go

Pierre Gasly, Alexander Albon, something like that. Sure. That's good. I barely understood what that meant. like an awesome team around him and you might be able to go the F1 equivalent of 11 and 6. Alexander Albon, something like that. Sure. That's good. I barely understood what that meant. All right, Kevin Carr. Good luck with the Slow News Day podcast. You can follow it on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Go check it out. And I'm glad it's launching just in time for the football season. Good to see you, buddy. Always good to see you, buddy. Talk soon. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance.

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Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, our guy Raheem Palmer is here. You can hear him on the Ringer gambling show. He's been in Las Vegas. I didn't think it was possible to spend more than like six days in Las Vegas.

You've been there two weeks. I'm starting to get worried about you. I'm going to be honest with you. You know, this weekend I've been on a roll. Like, it's basically Floyd Mayweather versus Arturo Gatti at this point. It's bad. Like, it's bad Floyd Mayweather versus Arturo Gatti at this point. It's bad. Like it's bad what I'm doing to him. I mean, it's, it's three team parlays, which I'd never parlay.

I'm just like, I'm running up the score right now. Yeah. You post some of your tickets on your Twitter feed and then house and I text about, we, we're not sure if this is what's going on. We just don't really understand what's happening with you. First of all, you've been winning since basically the NBA finals, or maybe even around before you started hitting the unders in the finals. But it just seems you're betting baseball.

You're doing these heat check baseball parlays. You're winning those. I don't understand it. Yeah, I don't even watch college football. I'm just reading the market and I'm like hitting. Like I had UNC. I had UNC. I had TCU second half. I'm watching the Don Best screen,

and the public is pounding Colorado second half. And I'm like, yo, TCU is up a point, and they're being dominated. Give me TCU minus five, and then they win the second half by 30. I literally don't watch. Honestly, I will watch Australian NBL and watch LaMelo ball before I watch college football. So, right.

So you're just you're almost betting against predictable human behavior sometimes. Yeah. Like sometimes it's just me reading the market. It's just like the UNC game, for instance, UNC opened minus four and got bet to plus three. They're a power five school playing Appalachian State. I'm like, you know what? Just give me UNC. It just doesn't make sense.

Like a seven point line move, I just, in any sport, it's almost too much. You know, well, this goes to Thursday. Rams-Bills, where the Rams are getting initially was two and a half points. Now it's down to two. And I talked about this with Sal. We did the AFC overrunners. I'm not saying the bills are a bad team. I know they're a good team, but they're now being treated like they're this absolute juggernaut. And I don't totally understand it. And I think this line reflects that. You have the Rams who are home,

first game, Super Bowl, the whole thing. At least for now, they're pretty healthy. And this Bills team is being treated like, you know, they're the 07 Pats. And I don't get it. And I feel like there's some value because I think the line should be a pick-em. And I'm just getting two free points.

So I'm going to take the, I'm going to take the Rams as an early million dollar pick, uh, at the end of the podcast. But as you look at that, does that fit your prototype of like, why is the general public so hard in this one direction? Yeah. I mean, I'm with you a hundred percent here. I think, I mean, at the end of the day, when you look at the Buffalo Bills, last year, they were first in DVOA on defense, first in EPA play on defense. But when you dig under the hood, you see that they really didn't play any good quarterbacks. And when they did, Kansas City put up 42 points on them in the playoffs. This is the team that lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars last year. So as good as the Buffalo Bills are, they aren't this juggernaut unbeatable team that we say they are. And then they're not going to have Sredavious White, which is their

number one cornerback. And you're going to have to deal with Cooper Cupp and Allen Robinson. And I think people are overreacting to the Matthew Stafford injury news. I mean, look, if it was week eight or week nine and he had that elbow problem, I think he's going to fade down the stretch. But early on in the season, they're protecting him. They're during the week. They're not letting him throw in practice. He's going to be ready for week one. We all saw Sean McVay 5-0 during week one. And it's just like Super Bowl winners, they're 19-3 straight up and they tend to cover the spread more often than not. So I think this spread is like going a little bit too far. I really like the Rams on a teaser.

I mean, the total is a little bit high for my liking in terms of like teasing games. But I do like the Rams in this spot on a teaser. I also think the over. I mean, I think the over like this is a good over candidate. And I normally wouldn't want to play overs in like primetime spots. Well, like I said, the Bills defense is a little bit overvalued. And I mean, I think the Bills are going to be passing the ball. So I think you'll see a lot of points in that game. I'm with you. I'm not saying like this is my all-time lock of

the year. I just think there's value because I think the Rams are a little undervalued because as you mentioned the Stafford thing, I think people are just freaked out about that. And then Buffalo is, I think a a little overvalued. And it doesn't mean they're not one of the best seven teams in the league, but it feels like they're being treated like they're the number one best team in the league. And I don't know. To me, I think we have seven, eight elite teams,

and there'll probably be two more that jump in and two more that fall out. But I don't really feel like there's any separation with anybody right now. I think the NFC is really hard to figure out. The AFC West, everybody's got their take on that. I can see the Chargers take with how

talented their roster is, but I don't trust their coach at all. I don't trust their history at all. They have no home field advantage. And as I've said, I'm on the Chiefs on that one. I like your idea with the Rams with the Tees. Getting them up to eight and maybe taking the Chiefs on that one. I like your idea with the Rams with the tees, getting them up to eight and maybe taking the Chiefs

in the second piece of that in Arizona. I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I do like the Chiefs. I think you just, you kind of highlighted something. I mean, we saw some sharp money hit the screen on the Chiefs today, heavy. I mean, we went from four and a half to six. So I do like that one.

I think that's a good one. Is that a bad sign, though, that we had that line move of 0.5? Now I feel like I'm in the public. No, it's not the public. This was like a really sharp group by the name of RAS, Right Angle Sports, who kind of made that move. They're winners in the market, so you can kind of trust them. Oh, interesting.

Okay. Clark and I talked about who's this year's I can't believe they made the playoffs team. And my pick was Carolina, the Panthers. I read you before we came on. I read you the whole list. Who is

your I can't believe they made the playoffs team? I'm going with the New York Giants. So you haven't fallen off on them yet. You're still in. Look, I'm confident with the New York Giants so you haven't fallen off on them yet you're still in look I'm confident I just still believe in them I think the NFC East

is a weak division I'm a die hard Cowboys fan but we saw the news with Tyron Smith the offensive line is going to be bad and then when it comes to the Eagles everybody's hyping up this Eagles team but I still don't believe in Jalen Hurts. I just don't.

You know, you look week one, that's a losable game against the Lions on the road. Like they could lose that game. So to me, I just think this division is so close. And you add Brian Dable, you get everybody back healthy. If they made the playoffs, it wouldn't surprise me. And at plus 225, I like it. And I also took some plus 750 to make the post,

I mean, to win NFC East. I think they can't, I can't believe that team made the playoffs team has to be an NFC team this year. Cause, yeah,

there's seven good ones in the NFC. I really tried to look at Pittsburgh from every angle. And by all counts, the offensive line is a disaster. Cause even the Trubisky piece, I'm not that afraid of it because he did win with the Bears.

It's not like he was, you know, somebody who never had success in his life. But if they're not going to be able to block for him, I just thought anybody after Roethlisberger was worth three wins. But you figure, well, they probably won more games than they should have last year.

So I kept looking at those NFC teams. I looked at the giants. I just, I, I just couldn't get there. I really tried. I really tried. I just don't know how many good players they have. The other one was the lions, but I just feel like hard knocks has completely ruined them. And they seem like a pretty popular pick, but I could see them winning week one, beating philly all the philly fans panic and that was like lions here we go and then they'll be six and eleven yeah i think with the lions i mean i just i still don't trust their defense and then you know when i look at their schedule and i got i got a lot of criticism for this on twitter but

jared golf is still not good in cold weather games. And they closed the season with Chicago and Green Bay. And I could easily see them going into Chicago and Justin Fields pulling a rabbit out of his hat and knocking the Lions out of the playoffs. Like, that could happen. So it's just, I just don't trust Jared Goff. And I think ultimately they're going to have to move on from them. But they have a really good offensive line.

I just don't trust the secondary at all. Yeah, I like the fact that they can block. At least that's something. Some of these teams that are going to be bad, like you look at the Bears, they're over under, depending on where you got it. It was 6.5 at one point. Now it's dropped to 5.5.

Their worst record's dropped to plus 750. That would be my pick, I think, right now for worst record, because they can't block. And I don't see how they're going to be. They have no skill position players other than Mooney. And I just don't see how they're going to score points. I don't see a roadmap for it. That might be an under 250 points team. Yeah, yeah, I totally agree with you. I mean, honestly, who knows if Justin Phil is going to last? I really think you had a good point on the Carolina Panthers, Panthers, though. I mean, when you look at them last year, I think they were like two and six in one score games. And then you upgrade the quarterback and Baker Mayfield. And I think

Baker Mayfield has some issues with Kevin Stefanski over there in Cleveland. And I think he's in a position to where he has some decent weapons. You got Robbie Anderson. You got DJ Moore. Obviously you got Christian McCaffrey. And look, a lot of people are kind of betting on Christian McCaffrey to be the comeback player of the year. But I don't think he's going to be there. I think, you know, they bring in Deontay Foreman. They're going to have like almost like a kind of a timeshare situation. I think the Panthers are alive.

I think if you're going to play them over, why not sprinkle a little bit on them to win the division? Because I do think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to take a step back. Now, me personally, there's another team in the division I really like. You act like I haven't already sprinkled a little bit on the Carolina Panthers. Well, the odds are crazy.

I mean, they were 15-1 at one point. Now they're 10-1, and they seem like they're dropping a tiny bit under there, but you guys did this on Ringer Gameboy, and you decided New Orleans was the team one and they seem like they're dropping a tiny bit under there, but you guys did this on a ringer gambling. You decided new Orleans was the team. And yeah, they were like, they basically three to one the whole summer.

And there's a lot of zagging against the bucks, which I get. But if I'm going to do that with the amount of talent, the bucks have, I think the bucks defense is going to be really good. Um, I want to zag with longer odds than three to one. I can't get there with Dennis Allen.

I just can't. He's going to have to prove me wrong. The Dennis Allen-James combo, we talked about this on Sunday's pod, like if I don't trust the QB and the coach, I just can't get there. And I'm not saying Carolina is much better, but at least Matt Ruhle won in college

and at least Baker was in round two, two years ago. You know, and it's not, there's like at least breadcrumbs of success, Winston and Dennis Allen. What am I getting? He inherited somebody else's team. It doesn't mean he's going to be a good coach. That's fair. I think it's more so the defense. And then I think, look, Jameis, I'm still a Jameis Winston trooper. I don't know why I'm holding on to this stock. I'm holding on to it like it's Bitcoin. But when you're saying you're holding on to the stock, are you holding on to the stock

that he can put up stats or that he can actually make the playoffs and succeed as a playoff quarterback? My ship has sailed on that. Don't kill me for this, but I look at him like Atlanta Brett Favre. Interesting. Not saying he's going to be a Hall of Fame this, but I look at him like Atlanta Brett Favre. Interesting.

Not saying he's going to be a Hall of Fame quarterback, but look at Brett Favre in Atlanta. He just had to, you know, calm down and be in the right situation. And I don't know if he was necessarily in the right situation to win. I mean, they proved the offensive line when Brady came in.

I think now he's matured a little bit. And I like the receiving core. I like Michael Thomas. You got Landry bit. And I like the receiving core. I like Michael Thomas. You got Landry. You got Chris Olay. And it looks like Alvin Kamara is not going to get suspended. So I just think he's in a good position and he doesn't have to do everything with the way the defense is going to be. I took a long look at New Orleans. I don't, I edged toward no on them as a playoff team, but I also wouldn't be surprised

if they were. They have no, it looks like they're a little top of you, which makes me nervous. The new coach thing makes me nervous. The fact that everybody,

when Joe House is in on you, I'm nervous, as you know. Joe House, not a lights out gambler. Going to the week one slate, there's a ton of home dogs. Sal and I counted 10 when we were doing

Guess the Lines on Sunday night. A, that's an all-time red flag for me. When there's a lot of home dogs, I just always feel like, okay, something bad's going to happen. Then you think think dogs do great in, in a week one. I think I saw John Ewing had it. He had the stats because he heard our podcast that it was like 89 and 67 the last nine years, something like that. The underdogs that gets the

spread in round one. What's your strategy in round one with underdogs? What do you look at? Well, I mean, there's a number of decent trends. I mean, you got role underdogs that didn't make the postseason last year. 73, 46 and four. That's 61%. I mean, there's three games that fit the bill there. That's the Steelers plus six and a half against the Bengals. The Jaguars plus four against the Commanders, which is down to two and a half today.

Somebody hit that line. And then there's the Giants plus six and a half against the Titans. That's a game that I love. So I'm actually on the Giants week one. That's a big play for me. Obviously, you have another trend, underdogs that won four to six games last season. They tend to do well. So the Giants is honestly one of my big plays. I think when I approach week one, I'm looking at the teams of who do I want to buy and who do I want to sell? So to me, the Giants are a team I want to buy. The Titans are a team I want to sell.

So when they combine together, you have a play. So I've been looking long and hard at that game because we're going to do, we're blowing out an underdog parlay a little bit this year on Thursdays for the million dollar picks. And shorting the Titans seems to be one of the best ideas of this 2022 season. Really, the only pedigree they have is that they were 12 and five last year and got a one seed. But as we know, the NFL, which is... Last year doesn't really matter sometimes, especially they've lost all their skill players.

They've had some injuries. They were kind of a house of cards last year to begin with. And every year we have that team that's like, in the old days, in the 16 game schedule, the 11 and five team or the 12 and four team, or even sometimes the 10 and 16. And they would just suck the next year. Like four and 12, five and 11,

like, whoa, oh my God. I really think that's going to be the team suck the next year. Yeah. Like four and 12, five and 11. Like, whoa. Oh my God. I really think that's going to be the team in the AFC. I think they're going to crater. So I looked at that Giants thing and I don't like the Giants nearly as much as you, but I think that line's way out of whack. Like way out of whack. Oh yes. I mean, it's extremely out of whack.

I mean, and when you look at the Titans, I mean, they went two games over their Pythagorean expectation last year. And then in 2020, they were seven and two in one score games. In 2021, they were six and two in one score games. At some point, that has to regress. And then when you lose A.J. Brown, the offensive line is a deck of cards at this point.

I mean, these guys are on Larry Holmes status, flabby and sick, as I always say. And then look at Ryan Tannehill. To me, he's a lame duck quarterback. So I just think this team kind of falls off a cliff. And then Aaron Chats of Football Outsiders, he always talks about the curse of 370. I love Derrick Henry, but at some point you can't have 300 touches every single year. And I think you saw him get injured last year. And this is a team that likes to run on early downs so much

and not pass on early downs and not get the play action thing going like they did when Arthur Smith was there. So I think they really fall off the cliff. Aaron, that was working in the 2000s, that theory. To the point that in fantasy, if it happened, that was like a stay away from me next year. Not to mention

the Jones fracture last year. Derek Henry. I mean, you even see it with Christian McCaffrey. I mean, like some of my favorite running backs,

like I love Chris Johnson to death, CJ2K, but after that 2000 yard season, he was never the same and it's happened with Christian McCaffrey and I think it's going to happen

with Derek Henry. As big as he is, you just can't give a back that many carries. Well, it's like Holmes. He had Ernie Shavers. Yeah. Ernie, people listening, sometimes I'll do this on the pod.

And when I recommend a random YouTube thing, my batting average is 1,000, just for the record. Go on YouTube and watch Ernie Shavers basically knock Larry Holmes out and Larry Holmes somehow gets up. He's like Michael Myers, but he's out as he's hitting the canvas and he gets up. And then Ernie Shavers for the next 30 seconds is throwing the wildest kitchen sink throws and just doesn't hit him. And basically, and ends up losing the fight a couple of rounds later. And he's just throwing like 30. Hey, It's absolutely an insane clip. But I've never seen anybody get up from a harder punch than that Holmes one.

So he had that. He had the 15 rounds against Ken Norton. He had a couple. And then by the 83-84 range, he was just fighting stiffs. He had nothing left. I like the Larry Holmes status. That's funny. Yeah.

I mean, you know, it's a Tupac line. He was talking about like Dallas. So I just, you know, I like to throw thatms status. That's funny. Yeah. I mean, you know, it's a Tupac line. He was talking about like Dallas. So, so, so I just, you know, I like to throw that in there a little bit. No, it's a good one. So the Giants are on FanDuel right now. We're taping this on a Tuesday. Plus five and a half. Plus 198 for the money line.

That was one that jumped out at me. The Jacksonville line was another one where, I mean, they're playing in Washington who has no, we talked about it Sunday, they have literally no home field advantage. There's two games this week where there's no home field advantage at all, where the lines are acting like there is, because the other one's the Chargers have a better roster, but that's going to be a Raiders home game. There's going to be 50,000 Raiders fans there. And yet it's Chargers three and a half. So anyway, there's a couple of lines that I thought were out of whack. Do you agree with those? And do you have any others? Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, one actually came back.

Like I actually, I took the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cowboys under 51. You know, we talk a lot about offensive lines and both of these offensive lines are in a hospital right now. I mean, obviously, you know, I'm a Cowboys fan. I love my Cowboys, but without Tyron Smith, this is not the same team. And then when you look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you got the Jensen injury. Um, Marpet is gone. Like they just don't have the same offensive line. So to me, I like the under 51. It's a primetime game. I actually bet it under 51 and a half. It went down to 50 and a half, and it actually came back to 51 a day. I think the thing with totals is that you see movement all over. So you have different sides who, you know, they kind of, there's some disagreement in the market, but I really like that under. So your favorite pick in week one so far, we got some time left, but right now, give me your two favorites. So I have Giants plus six. I got six and a half,

but I like five and a half too. I like the Moneyline. I like the Bucks, Cowboys under 51. 51 is a key number. That's important to know. It lands about 4% of the time. So 50 and a half is not good. 51, you want to get that. And there's another one I kind of like.

I wish I could get 7, but I think the Pittsburgh Steelers can actually cover this number against the Bengals. Yeah, I was... I really like the Bengals this year. Like a lot. That's one of my teams. This game scares me for some reason.

I'm not putting in a tease. I don't know why, but it looks like it's kind of begging you to tease it. And that makes me nervous. I also think for at least week one, they'll have that whole Trubisky thing. They'll have the 15 gimmick plays. And it's a kitchen sink game for them.

That's an AFC North opponent you know they don't want to start the season on one and on one so I it just worries me I think the Bengals win but I could see them winning and not covering and in general I think I don't want to sweat it out here's the thing about that game last year these two teams played Bengals were laying three so this is basically over adjustment and then when you look at the trends of super bowl losers 4 and 18 against the spread 9 and 13 straight up you look at mike tomlin as a dog 45 23 and 2 this is what they call like a prom rah-rah mike tomlin spot it just all the trends kind of point in that direction. Now, I mean, Joe Burrow scares me to death. He's, to me, I look at him like the new break.

Yeah. But it's tough to bet against him. If I got a seven or I got a cheap buy at a seven where I could buy it for like 10 cents or so, I would jump on the Steelers. Yeah, I'm not going to be betting on Mitch Trubisky in week one. That's one of my decisions.

Daniel Jones, maybe because just because of, I think how we both feel about the Titans. The only other one I wanted to ask you about, I had one other one. Oh, so the Miami Lions moved to three and a half. No surprise to anybody who's followed the Patriots preseason. I actually thought the line was going to end up at four. And I think we're heading that way. You don't have a dog in this race. What, what do you see with the Patriots? I'm not a big fan of Matt Jones. To me, this roster is a mess. I mean, you guys don't have an offensive coordinator. Troy Aikman was on ESPN earlier today saying offensive coordinator is one of the hardest positions to fill in the NFL. And I truly

believe it. I mean, we saw it when Kyle Shanahan leaves Atlanta. I think we're going to see it with Brian Dable leaving Buffalo. And right now with Josh McDaniels leaving, they look lost to me. And then when you look at the secondary, you lose a key piece over there. And you've got to defend Tyreek Hill. And I think Miami is much improved this year. Obviously, they pick up Teron Armstead, got Tyreek Hill. And I think Miami is much improved this year. Obviously, they pick up Teron Armstead, got Tyreek Hill. I think this is Tua's first real chance to kind of prove himself.

I know Warren Sharpe talked about it on your podcast already, but him not really getting a fair shake. And I think the market kind of reflects that. But one thing I'll say, well, I'll backtrack. The Patriots have always struggled in Miami, always. But one thing I'll say, well, I'll backtrack. The Patriots have always struggled with it in Miami. Always. But one thing I'll say is that this total's 46.5, and it's coming down. This is a good teaser candidate to me for the Patriots. I mean, you can tease them through

six, through seven. You can get to that to nine. You can get multiple key numbers in a game that kind of projects as a low total. So, I wouldn't be mad at adding the Patriots as a teaser. We have no idea what the weather's going to be either. It says it's going to be 90 degrees with rain,

which means it'll be super humid. And we've seen every year in week one, in either Jacksonville or Atlanta or Carolina or Miami, one of those cities has one of those games where it's super hot and we all feel stupid because we bet the road team. Yeah. And everybody's dragging in the third quarter. You're like, oh, my God, why did I remember? I don't know if that's going to be the Pats. To me, this is a stay away.

The Tua PR campaign, which I think has been more effective than the Will Smith King Richard Oscar campaign. It's about as good. I can't believe it. You'd think the guy was a superstar. I personally would like to see him play two games in a row that look really competent. To me, it's a stay away i mean you i think look i think right now it's either pass or pass because this line has gone from two and a half to three and a half you cross off a key number like so i think you have to stay away but

i think the one thing that you have to look at when it comes to tua is that with him in the lineup i mean they weren't a bad team i I think they were 7-4 with a plus 34-point differential with him in the lineup. But it's just, I mean, they didn't play good quarterbacks. I mean, outside of Lamar Jackson on that Thursday night football game, it was Zach Wilson, 2X. It was Cam Newton.

It was Mike Glenn and Ian Book. So I'm curious to see if that Dolphins defense take a step back. I mean, obviously you lose your head coach, you bring in a more offensive-minded guy. So, I think it's pass or pass at this point, but I mean, the

sharp money is on Miami at minus two and minus three. I need to stay away. I like the Jags so much more when they're plus three in Washington. I think they were even plus three and a half at one point. I still like them, but I wish they were getting a field goal. And then the other, the only other one is that, uh, that Monday night game, which I know I'm going to talk myself into Seattle by Monday night. I'm not going to bet it probably until Monday. And then you start talking

yourself into the Monday night bet. But that line is suspiciously high. It's basically a touchdown for this Denver team that every year goes 6-10, 6-11, 7-10. They have bad luck. Everybody is convinced it's going to change this year. Wilson's going to come back and kick their ass. I don't know, man.

We've seen this exact situation a lot where all of a sudden, Geno's running around. You get like a pick. Crowd's going nuts. It's 10-0 Seattle. And I just would not want to be on the other end of that. I totally agree.

Actually, my model actually has that number at 5.5. Interesting. So I think there's some value on Seattle. But I also think this is over. I mean, Seattle doesn't have a good defense. And then the Broncos, they lose Vic Fangio. I mean, I think this total

has got bet up from 41 to 41, I mean, to 44 right now. So I think you're going to see some points in this game. Well, Gino's one of those. He makes things happen for both teams, not just for his own team.

Things are just happening, right? You might get a pick six, you might get a touchdown, whatever. What are your, before we go, your two favorite futures for the 2022 season? I know you've done some of this on ringer gambling, but just for my listeners, what are your two faves? Okay. So I approach futures very differently than most people. So this is a team future. So we're going to go Baltimore Ravens plus 2000 to win the Super Bowl. Baltimore Ravens plus 950 to win the AFC. Baltimore Ravens plus 145 to win the AFC North.

And Lamar Jackson plus 2000 to win MVP. I think you have to obviously space that out in terms of your bets, in terms of less risky to most risky. So obviously you probably have more than them to win the AFC North. And then it kind of pays for the other one. Well, if you're betting, what are their AFC odds? Plus 950. And Lamar for MVP is what? Plus 2000. Yeah. See, I would rather bet Lamar to win the MVP than the Ravens to win

the AFC because if they win the AFC, it'll be because Lamar was incredible, which means he might win the MVP. I'm just getting double the odds. See, I'm greedy. And that's why I take all of them because the thing is you're going to need a team, the MVP, it's a quarterback's reward. So you basically need a team's going to win 11 games. You look at the Ravens last year, they were first in adjusted games loss. Even with all of the injuries, they were eight and three with Lamar. And then they fell off a cliff once he got hurt. So I'm expecting, I mean, obviously Lamar is in a contract year. They didn't want to pay him. So he has to perform. So I just think the plus 2000, he's kind of being undervalued. So to me, if I could get all of those, and then once

you get to the playoff, you can start hedging the rest of them. It's just all about putting yourself in that position. So I try to take all of them and then put the most on plus 145 to win the AFC North. It's funny, with the Ravens stuff, people are defaulting to

the injury luck they had last year, which I get. So they became one of the nerds' favorites because, well, that can't happen again they had last year, which I get. They, so they became like one of the nerds favorites. Cause well, that can't happen again. Blah, blah, blah. Yeah.

To me, Bateman is the most important thing. Like if what you just laid out, cause I was, I'm, I love Cincinnati and it might be the case where if we thought the two best teams are going to be the AFC West and maybe they're in the AFC North, I'm not ruling it out,

but reading about Bateman over the last four weeks and what he's going to mean and how Lamar's never had a guy like that and how he fits all the things Lamar is good at the type, the type of receiver he is and how that's going to open up all this stuff for them. And then have, you know, a better running game than last year, the running game got decimated. Other running backs got hurt. Yeah. The contract year thing worries me, though. The fact that they haven't settled his business yet. And he's kind of been erratic about it. You know, there's been some weird moments with it.

Like where he seemed almost a little immature. I want my quarterback to be like the most mature guy in the team. He seemed like a, what is he? 24, 25, like a 25 year old kid who didn't get what he wanted. And he's kind of pissed off about it. And I don't know if I want that from my quarterback.

Um, that's, that's the one thing that worries me, but I know you're, you're, you're big on history. Yeah. Remember the last,

remember the last Ravens quarterback who didn't get a contract. What did he do? Oh, 10 years ago. a contract what did he do oh 10 years ago i mean but then he 10 years ago the problem is then he did get the contract after but yeah i heard uh michael lombardi our old friend on his podcast he was recommending with the mvp it's always a quarterback just pick five and bet like, you know, $100 on each one. And I was thinking like, oh, that's interesting. Who would my five be? So you clearly, you have to take Allen and Mahomes. So there's two.

You got to take Justin Herbert. Honestly, Justin Herbert was, he was my first pick, but I didn't want to give that out here because the number got bet down from 14 or 15 to one to nine to one. So it's like, you kind of missed the value. Right. So on or 15 to one to nine to one. So it's like, you kind of missed the value. Right. So on Fando, he's nine to one.

So Allen's seven to one, Mahomes eight to one, Herbert's nine to one. Lamar 20 to one was the one that really jumped out to me where I was like, I think he's in my five because there's a scenario where I could just see him having, he's already done it. So we know he has it in him.

And then I was trying to think who is my fifth one between Burrow and Rogers. And I think I see him having it. He's already done it. So we know he has it in him. And then I was trying to think, who is my fifth one between Burrow and Rodgers? And I think I would take Burrow. I don't think Rodgers. I think if Green Bay is awesome this year, I think it's because of Jones and Dillon as much as Rodgers and their defense and all that stuff. So I think Burrow would be my fifth, but I might try that strategy. I'm with you. I think Lamar 20 to one. I don't think those odds are correct. All right, so that's one. What was your other future? Okay, the other one is I mean, I think you said my favorite one. One of my favorite ones was the Bears to

have the worst record in the league, but I'm going with the Saints plus 300 to win the NFC South. I'm going with the Saints over eight and a half wins. I'm going to Saints to make the playoffs at minus 144. And because I'm a dream is James Winston. I'm going to Saints to make the playoffs at minus 144. And because I'm a James Winston trooper, I haven't sold my style.

James Winston, comeback player of the year, plus 600. When you look at the history of the AP comeback player of the year award, 15 of them have gone to quarterbacks. And they just started giving out the award again in 1998. So I think there's only been one running back. So I think I like Jameis Winston, but come back player of the year. Well, as you know, I've always liked Jameis. I was calling for the Pats to sign him a couple years ago. This seems like a lot to ask, but I'm not against it. I admire it. Listen, this is the NFL. Weird shit happens every year. And I've been going through because every year it's like five to seven playoff teams just don't come back the next year.

So I was trying to figure that out. Like who are the five I just want to pull out? And then what's the weird shit to be prepared for? And there's going to be this thing where Baker Mayfield could go 12 and five. Jameis could be an MVP candidate. We're going to have a couple of those. Everybody just goes chalk by the end of August. The Chiefs, the Chargers,

the Bills, the Packers. Then the Eagles get hot and so I'm in on the Eagles. That's not how it works. We have to have two or three things happen that nobody expected. I'm down on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I love Tom Brady to death. Tom Brady is probably my favorite player in the history

of sports. You always hear my like, I love Tom Brady to death. Tom Brady's probably my favorite player in the history of sports. Like, you always hear my phrase, Tom Brady, he's like Alonzo from training day. You give him 18 months, he'll give you a career. But, it's like, when you look at the first four games on their schedule, the Cowboys, the Saints, the Packers, the Chiefs, that's one and three,

two and two. So you put yourself in position by taking another NFC South team. If you take futures on them, you could kind of buy back on the Buccaneers later if you like it. Yeah, I like that. Yeah, I like that idea. All right, Raheem, try to behave yourself in Las Vegas. We can hear on the Ringer gambling show all year. We're going to be experimenting with a couple of different things with you during the season, Some quick pick podcasts and a whole bunch of stuff. But good to see you as always.

Thanks for coming on. No doubt. I'll be back in Philly tomorrow. So I'm not partying too much more. Thanks for having me. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe.

Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly so you won't hear them coming.

You won't hear them coming. See, safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really?

Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinx. All right. We talked about doing this last year. And then I think I forgot to follow up. And then the Chiefs lost. So I kind of blame myself a little bit. But now the Chiefs have become my pick to win the Super Bowl.

Yeah. I'm dropping that on you right now. So diehard Chiefs fan Heidi Gardner is here. And I just I want to share the good news with you and get your take. Bill, I'm so happy to hear that. Thank you. As a kind of member of the Chiefs, I would consider myself. I've been I am from Kansas City.

I've loved it a long time. I've loved the Chiefs a long time. So when they won the Super Bowl, it felt like I did, too. Were you there when they won the Super Bowl? I was not. I was here in New York, but my best friend from second grade also lives in New York and my younger brother and his wife and two of their Kansas City friends were with me. So it was very Did you cry? Yes. Oh my god. And pop champagne. And the other people that were at the Super Bowl party, like I had some people from SNL that were there. They're like, Are you guys going out? And we're like, Yeah, we just need to watch like some highlights. And then we'll go out. And then we just ended up watching two and a half hours of highlights until we got tired. That is the best part of when they win. Cause then you can watch the sports center and then the guys keep popping on and then they have the interviews and

it's like this little two hour. I get it. Um, walk us through last year, the chiefs, they're dominating Cincinnati and it looks like, and then all of sudden, in the course of a half hour, they blow it at the end of the first half. Things start shifting in the second half. Mahomes seems like he's been replaced by alien Mahomes. I still don't know what totally happened to him. And all of a sudden, you're losing. And I'm not a cocky fan.

I was on the other end of it two years prior when we were playing the Texans. And they were up 24-0. And then we turned things around, you know, so I know what can happen. I've watched enough football in my life. So I and I'm a Chiefs fan and it's only been lately that we've, you know, been a little more dominating. I just never get cocky. So I don't feel when it's 24-0 or even at the half. And I I was watching with some people that were like

oh i'm starting to feel bad for the bangles and i was like please be quiet like i get really i'm like see you saying that is gonna like change the tide and they're like oh i know i'm just like i just want them to score one i'm like stop stop it makes me want to kick the person out of my home i just and and then it did happen and then i was like blaming that on people i'm very immature like that i'm just like i i just know too much and to come off that bills game which in my opinion is the greatest football game ever played it it just took away the greatness of that a little, and that sucks to say. I'm trying to wrap my head around what happened

all these months later. I lost a lot of money in the game too, which didn't help. And pride. We were a better team than the Rams. We just asked the bad. I don't know if I can cuss. No, you can 100% cuss. Or asked the bad. I like asked the bad. I just, I don't know if I can cuss. No, you can a hundred percent cuss.

Or asked the bad, whatever. I like asked the bed, very NBC. The, uh, I wonder like the bills game. It was such a great win that it almost felt like, Oh, we've won the super bowl. We, we got through that. That was it. And then there was some sort of weird letdown. My other theory is that my home's got hit in the head or something. Cause he, he starts tailing off and it doesn't really make a lot of sense. And I don't totally get it. Like somewhere in the second quarter, he just didn't seem like my home's anymore,

but that's one of the reasons I think the chiefs, that's my Superbowl pick. I think this is like the Mahomes. Oh, you guys are talking about Herbert. You're talking about Burrow. All these other quarterbacks and the Chargers are the hot new team

in the AFC West and Rogers. Everybody says he's still the best quarterback in the league. And I think this is like a Mahomes reclaims his territory kind of season. That's what I'm backing on. Yeah, I feel like Mahomes is always motivated.

He's always there. He's always there. He's always just the fact that, yes, there is this conversation right now. There's Mahomes haters, and I just don't understand it. And I know it's just because he's so good and because he's been, you know, beginning of the season last year, like interception craziness, but he always adapts to a situation and figures out a new way. And I don't know why there's doubters. This man is like- You seem agonized by this.

You're like- I am because it's scary because this is the first time we've ever had like a franchise quarterback on the Chiefs. The other biggest thing ever was when we got Joe Montana in his last year. Yeah. And so I am just this like, forever kind of scared Chiefs fan. And like, this is the first time I've like felt confident and but not like I said, not too cocky ever. Um, so it's just hard when people, when people are coming down on the greatest thing that ever happened to us. Yeah. It's kind of what life's like though. You, you get this incredible gift, you get excited about it, you love it.

And then all of a sudden you've tried to figure out ways to, ways to bitch about it or turn on it. It's kind of, kind of the role of slow. So the, in Kansas city though, the actual city and then my homes, he signs this huge contract.

He's got his brother doing this social, like, do you feel like they're a hundred percent all in or are they starting to be like, is this guy too big for us? What's going on with him? Or is it just like all in a hundred percent love? We're all in.

Like we know we have a unicorn and that this doesn't come along often and we're embracing it wholeheartedly, fully with every part of our being. That's the right answer. That's what we had with Brady, especially, unfortunately, Brady had to tear his ACL that year.

And once he was removed, it was like, oh man, Jesus. It was like, I miss him even more than I thought it. I was already devastated. It became one of those things. What would happen to you if Mahomes hosted Saturday Night Live? Oh my God, I can't. I mean, it's like my biggest dream. And I actually hope it's,

I wish they would do a Mahomes Kelsey co-host because I think Travis Kelsey is actually hilarious, super charismatic. And he would balance just the part of like Mahomes that might be a little more reserved or nervous. I think they'd be a great double duo and they would probably get annoyed by like what a little sister I would be like

tapping on their shoulder all week and they fully know um that I'm from Kansas City and I say and I met them both but I know myself and I would just be so much like uh this this play oh remember when you ran wasp and won the Super Bowl and like I mean even I saw Travis Kelsey at the ESPYs and I was like, dude, it was so cool when you were mic'd up in that Bills game. And like right before Tyreek ran it, you know, you were like number 10, number 10. You know, just like just doing one of his like a moment where he was just trying to get Tyreek Hill's attention. And like, I think he was like, OK, Heidi. Well, it sounds like you could just bring back the Chris Farley show,

but you're now the host. Can't they just? Yeah, exactly. It's Saturday Night Live IP. They could technically rip it off, but it would just be you in a Chiefs jersey just pretending to interview these guys. Yeah.

Remember that Patriots game? Yeah, that would be the whole thing. I like the idea of the double co-hosts. They don't really do that. How many times has that happened? I think it's only happened Amy Poehler, Tina Fey. Yeah. As far as I know.

It's not a bad idea. Well, if you win the Super Bowl, maybe the door gets open. Wait, can we go backwards? Your story is kind of crazy. Yeah. You, you moved from, from Missouri and you moved to LA and you're, what are you a hairstylist? You work in a hair salon. What are you doing in a hair salon? Yeah. I moved to LA. I go to school for hair and makeup. I get a job in a salon. I've got a full clientele. I'm doing blow dries, cuts, colors, extensions, men's cuts. And then about five years.

So wait, we're in LA. Wait, what part of LA is this? Studio City was where the salon was that I worked at. Yeah. And in the back of your head, you're thinking, I'm good at comedy. This could happen, but you're just cutting hair and doing blow dress. Well, for a while, I didn't even think of that. I mean, I always thought I was a funny person from Kansas city who loved movies and

TV and music and pop culture and sports. And like, but I never saw like a path. I didn't, I didn't even know there were improv classes. I didn't take acting classes. So I just thought like, I'm going to be that person classes. So I just thought like,

I'm going to be that person who's always quoting movies and like, you know, and just people, you know, my brother, my older brother thought I was funny and that felt really good. And then I went and I saw a show at the Groundlings theater and I was like, and I'd always heard of the Groundlings. I mean, I was SNL obsessed as well. And I was like, that was the funniest thing I ever, I'd ever seen. And my friend, I had made a new friend, and she was in the show. And she was like, you're funny, you should take a class here. And I was like, I'm not an actor. And she's like, you leave me like seven minute voicemails in character. I know you can do it. That was my friend, Rachel. And she, yeah, she got me into it. and then i just kept taking classes i

kept doing hair because that's where i made the money to take these classes as a hobby and then um you kind of keep on moving up the ranks there and at a certain point i became a groundling and a year and a half later snl came and wait that wait hold on that was too fast so you went from taking classes to all of a sudden you're in the Groundlings. Yeah. So how many years is that? Is that like two years? That was about, it was probably four and a half years to get into the Sunday company, which is where you're performing every Sunday night. And it's like a SNL style show, like hour and a half sketch comedy show. And then the Sunday

company after a year, I got voted into the groundlings. So it's probably like six years of the groundlings also has like kind of crazy wait lists. So you know, I was taking another classes while I was waiting for the next thing to open up at groundlings and then um so i probably started and taking improv in 2010 i quit my job at the salon at in 2015 because i realized i'm obsessed with comedy and i'll just do sketch comedy for free at the groundlings for the rest of my life and see what happens and then snl came in 2017 and saw me. That's crazy. I have like a little bit of a similar story because I was still bartending when I was trying to get my column going and I was doing both. And then you hit this point. I had the column, but I was also working. And at some point you hit this moment where you're like,

I got to go for it. Like if it's ever going to happen, I got to do, I got to be in a hundred percent or it's, you know, I'm going to look back 10 years from now and think, I think I should have gone in a hundred percent and I want to do that. So I'm going to roll the dice, but you have that roll the dice moment. So it sounds like you had the same thing. I had the roll the dice moment, but actually my, the woman I worked for at the salon, Deanna, she was like, get out of here like what are you still doing here she was like we go this is not for you anymore so it always helped

me to have that like little push and then once i started telling clients they were because they didn't know i had this like side gig comedy dream um and they and they were like, no, like you moved to LA. You did not do the cliche thing. You moved to LA to be a hairdresser, not an actor. Don't switch it. That's stupid. Are you funny? We're totally unsupportive. And I understand why. So what was, when you were cutting hair, what was your move? Were you like talking the whole time? Were you asking questions? Were you doing your own? Cause everybody's got a different move. What was your move? Well, I'm a Midwest people pleaser by nature. So like I kind of pick up on what the client wants, like, especially with guys, they were a good tell of like, I would start a conversation

with a guy and then quickly, if I could tell he just wanted to be silent the whole cut i'm like cool i've been talking all day i can shut the hell up as well um or there are those typical people or like you know you hear where it's like i hear salons like a therapy office like people will just completely open up to you which was great while i was taking character classes at the grounding because i was like I was like, you're a character, you're a character. That's a great story. That one, I'm going to steal from you.

And the ones I was close to, I would be like, I've kind of done you before. Yeah. Well, that would have been an amazing book if you had like kept notes of all the day. Cause you're right.

Like you're meeting every single type, especially out here. Everybody's so weird out here. Yeah. You're meeting like legitimate characters yes it was perfect so do you miss it no i i do i do miss it but what's really cool at snl is that there's the whole hair department and so i mean they've always told me if i wanted to style one of my own wigs i could come in and do it but like when they're dyeing the wigs, like I'll smell a familiar smell and I'll come in and I'll be like,

is that Redken Shade CQ? And they're like, you still know it, girl. And then I feel cool. What was your best haircut asset? What were you the best at? Were you best at guys, women, like certain types of things i'm so fascinated by this that you had this completely different career before you're doing now i think

i got really good at like long layers on women and like a really good like blowout i loved a good blowout because it was just really meditative like you know just like people say, like crocheting is, you know, I'm taking sections of hair and just going through it and blowing out. Yeah. It was, it was nice. Well, now it's sad because we had that two year run where the, everybody had to wear masks and it's just, it seemed like it was, it was borderline, probably terrible for people who cut hair half the time with whoever they had to talk to. But now you have this mask on, you can't even like read their lips through the marriage talking. Anyway, so who approaches you for SNL?

Or do you audition? How to walk us through that one? So they, typically in the summers, SNL goes and looks at like, you know, groundlings in UCB, Second City, Chicago. And they were doing a showcase at the groundlings. It was one of the producers, Lindsay Shookus. I was on her list to be seen.

There were like nine of us. And most people were actually from the Sunday company. So I was really lucky that they were looking back at someone from the main company, because typically, they've seen a lot of the main company people at that point. So I do the showcase, it's a five minute set, whatever you want to do. And I realized the magnitude of like, oh, I get to do like kind of a preseason game. Like, before like the actual game, like this is my home field. This is ground lanes.

They're going to fill it with like students here that have been coming to the shows. They know who I am. I can invite friends and family. Um, this is a, yeah, this is a preseason game. And so, and I wanted to be undeniable. So in those five minutes, I think I did like 12 characters total. And I am definitely my biggest critic, but I, I felt really good after it. I was like, you know, I was like,

maybe the crowd was being nice, but it, it felt like a moment, but yeah, I didn't hear anything for two weeks. And then, and then I heard they want to fly you out to New York, uh, to test you. And so I went out there and it was, my first test was on August 23rd, which I just thought

was a good sign. Cause 23 Jordan and LeBron, I was like listening to quotes from them. Um, before my audition, I had my screensaver on my phone was like both of their jerseys, some collage I'd made to look at. And, and then what I didn't plan for, I mean, I was totally memorized, I was able, you know, I could do the same set I had done at the Groundlings. But what I didn't plan for being like a lifelong SNL fan, I'd never gone to a show had the opportunity. So they start walking me out to do the audition. And I'm starting to walk through like the hallways that I've seen in the monologue and like backstage of the show. And then suddenly, they just walked me around this

corner and there's home base. Now I know it's called home base. I mean, at the time I was just like, that's the stage where the hosts runs downstairs and does their monologue. And, um, so I was like, I had that moment where I was like, if it was any other time, I would have asked the stage manager, like, can you take a picture of me on the stage? But he was like, okay, um, I'm going to count you down. You know, and it was just suddenly like five, four, three, and then they don't say two or one. And then I just had to go. And I don't remember my first audition like at all. I just, I mean, I did it, but for me, I didn't have the memory. I just, uh, I kind of remember hearing a laugh maybe or two, but then, you know, you, you read all the books and it's like, if you get a meeting with Lauren, that's a good sign. And I didn't get a

meeting with Lauren. So I go home, I don't hear anything for a week. And then I hear that they want to fly me back out to New York. Um, they want me to do another test, but this time it has to be a totally new set. Uh, you know, cause they want to know you can turn over material in a week. And I was like, no, I like, I was trying to be undeniable. That was like my best shit. I gave them 12 things. And this is the thing that was really cool for me. Another sports way that I chose to look at it. I had been performing so many shows at the groundlings. I had been getting in so many reps over that year and a half. And then the year of doing Sunday company,

but at that point I'd had so many failed sketches, but like glimmers of like, you know what? That sketch didn't work, but I know people liked that character. Or I know that like, you know, those few lines were really funny, you know, like it just didn't work. The premise didn't work, but that character worked. And so my whole second audition for SNL, I just feel like was my bench. Like I just like got to get the bench, like got to get my players off the bench and they got to do the second audition. And it was all the kind of like weirder stuff I like to do. And, and I also reminded myself before that

audition, like, Heidi, you might not ever be back here. So please remember this one. And I just felt like all my my bench players, like, really rose to the occasion, had a lot of fun. I remember it. I thought it went great. But then again, I didn't get a meeting and I fly home and it's like radio silence for 10 days. Wait, hold on. So you read all the books, you're prepared, you know the process and you know all the beats that should happen. Yes. Yes. I mean, when I was leaving for the airport, no joke, because I was staying right across the street from 30 Rock. When I was leaving for the airport, I saw people coming back that I had auditioned with the day before. They were coming back from

what I assumed was 30 Rock and I'm going to the airport. And like, usually I would never like, um, you know, be so vulnerable to a stranger, but I did ask a couple of these guys. I mean, now one of them, um, is Andrew Dismutes is a cast member of mine, but I was like, um, did you get a meeting, you know? And they were like, yeah. Uh, yeah, it was weird. How was yours? And like, as I was like pulling my rolling luggage, I was like, I didn't get one. And then like the elevator doors closed. And I think they were, they said that in the elevator, um, they were like, Oh my God, I think we just broke that girl's heart forever. Um, so I go back to LA. I'm just it's not gonna happen and on the 10th day of complete silence i had chosen to go to the grocery store to just this really was true what i wanted to do was just

walk down the cereal aisle to look at like bright colors and nostalgic boxes to try to just be happy. And I pulled into the parking lot and there was a call on my phone from a New York, a 9-1-7 number. And I was like, okay, unknown, you know, and I answered it and it was like, Heidi Gardner, I've got Lorne Michaels on the phone for you. And then I totally tried to act like this was really normal and so then i was fully like yes put him through uh is this heidi gardner and i was like yes this is she um and then suddenly it's lauren and he was like hi he Heidi, this is Lauren Michaels. And I'm calling to tell you, I'm bringing you onto the cast. And then it's like in the movies where you go totally speechless.

And he talks to me for like three minutes about just like what to expect and this and that. And then after three minutes, I realized I have not said thank you that I said one word. And so I just kind of screamed like, thank you so much, sir. And he was like, I can tell you're in shock. I'll meet you in a day. By the way, you're moving tomorrow in New York. I was like, oh, yeah. So it was it was wild. Wait, so he doesn't even ask if you want to join the cast. He's basically like, you have been selected to be on the show. You're moving here tomorrow. And that's it? Yeah, I guess he assumes that everyone's going to take it. I mean, maybe no one's ever. Yeah, he didn't ask. He told me. I was like, yep, I'll be there. That would be such a power play to flip it on him.

Somebody down the road to be like, oh, so you want me to be on? All right. Can I have like six, seven hours to think about this? Can I call you back? Nobody, I guarantee nobody's ever done that probably. No, let me check my schedule and I'll call you back, Lauren. Yeah, Lauren, I'll get back to you.

Wait, so what happens to you if you don't make the show? You're just trying to get acting parts and what's, what are the next four years look like? Yeah. Yeah. I think I would. I mean, I, I love the groundlings theater. I imagine I would still, you know, want to be there doing sketch comedy, you know, buying my own wigs, buying all my own costumes. I love putting together a character. It was the most fun I ever had. So yeah. I'm trying to think though, have you done a hairdresser character? No, right? I don't think so. Yeah. Because when I was a kid, I mean, Eddie was my all-time guy. Eddie used to have

Dion, the hairdresser character. Who's now like pretty, pretty politically incorrect. They won't be running a lot of that, but, um, but that was like one of his big recurring characters. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. He had Stevie wonder. The big one was Stevie wonder came in to get his braids done and it was actually the real Stevie wonder, but that was like the big Dion sketch. Wait, so what happens this year? You had a huge cast last year. I always get mad when the cast is too big. I'm just going to rant.

I know you can't say anything, but I've said this to Lauren. I did a podcast in his office. You did? Yeah, in 2014. It was like a career highlight. But I was like, I just like when it's a little smaller

because I think it's like a basketball team. Like you want to make sure everybody's getting minutes and you only have an hour and a half and Weekend Updates, 12 minutes and the musical act, there's two and there's really only six sketches. And then maybe that two update spots. So the bigger the cast,

I think it would be harder to get a rhythm. Now it seems like it's going to be a little smaller. But without getting you in trouble, what do you think the ideal number is for the cast? And we'll remove the weekend update, guys, because it seems like that's like... I know those are spots, but not really, because they're usually not in sketches.

Oh, my gosh. I'm just going to pull a number 12. Okay. So you got like the four or five vets. Uh-huh. The five people in their kind of peak time in the show and then like three or four newcomers. Yeah.

Yeah. I think that's, I feel like that's a good number. And then everyone gets to play. I mean, I'm the same way. I love that you told Lauren feel like that's a good number. And then everyone gets to play. I mean, I'm the same way. I love that you told Lauren, like, I want it to be like a team, like, because on the weeks where like, I'm super light, which can feel, you know, I definitely have my moments where it's just like, yeah, you feel a bit like useless or like, what am I doing? And then I'm like, you know what what i'm still on this team so like all right you know like last season i would tell like if melissa had like an update

in it's like hey do you want to run it like come down to my dressing room like let's run it together she would do it for me too it's like how do i still be a part of the team like okay i'll go like if i'm in the hall before uh the cold open. Like if I run into James, like about to do Trump or Biden, like I'm going to be like, have fun, like remind him, like,

you know, I feel like everyone's such a pro there that like, they're going to do their job so well, but it can help so much just to be like, have fun. Like, just remember to have fun. That's really fun to watch.

And yeah, just the way that like, I don't know when i played basketball or volleyball it was like we pumped each other up hey i've had a lot of snl people on the podcast over the last 15 years hater always said the key to being a good snl cast member is even if you only had one line in the sketch you still throw yourself into it 100 if you're like the waiter and you have one line you still have to be like the best waiter. And that's how to make it work. Because then when you're the center of a sketch, everybody else will reciprocate. And that's just kind of how it goes, which I think

made sense. I never did sketch, but basketball is like that too. Sometimes when you play basketball, you know, you're just going to set some picks and guard some people and that's it. You might shoot once but you might make that shot yeah i had a i had a show this year i think it was the lizzo show i had two lines and one of them like i was just like how do i have the most fun with these lines you know because they weren't even necessarily written funny i was just like a straight man and in one sketch i decided like okay i just going to kind of do this big and ballsy and loud. And I think the audience will like it this way.

And then my other line in another sketch, I just really wanted to make Mikey and Bowen laugh. And I kind of like was a little more subtle, but I knew the character I was doing would make them laugh. And like the audience didn't laugh at all. But again, it wasn't a funny line, but it was enough for me that I was like, I know that they like this woman I'm being right now. And that's enough. Who's the most talented? Cause they always set them. Those guys would always talk about some celebrity would come in and be an awesome host. Right? And you'd be like, oh my God, that so-and-so could be on the show if they wanted to.

So you've been, since 2017, who was the one that came in where you're like, oh my God, that person could have been a cast member? Two that really come to mind are Harry Styles and Oscar Isaac. They like had characters. Adele too. Adele had like a lot of even accents and voices that

I was pretty jealous of. I was shocked by Adele. I thought she was great. I guess it makes sense because she's from the British people. I don't know. I just feel like there's some sort of weird advantage walking. They just have a different set of confidence. Styles though, I did't know. I just feel like that there's some sort of weird advantage walking. They just have a different set of confidence styles though. I did not expect. Yeah. I mean, I, at that point,

you know, I hadn't really been a one direction fan and I wasn't like super knowledgeable yet about his solo career. So I just didn't know what to think at all. And at the table read it was like oh yeah we all walked away being like i think he could audition and make the show but it comes back to the confidence thing though yeah you need a certain confidence to be a stage performer i mean i always thought that's why timberlake was good at it too justin timberlake um yeah i have to imagine the way we felt about Harry Styles was the way people

probably felt on the cast when Timberlake came in. Like it was like, Oh, this is, this is legit. And then like, you know, a couple of seasons ago,

Maya Rudolph hosted and like being at that table read, she can legitimately do anything. I think that was the most impressive table read i've ever seen like this just singing different character for everything it was just like my god but obviously she she has a short hand in it as well yeah i mean if it were sports we would talk about her as like the most underrated so-and-so, whatever position, right? Like,

yeah, really. But nobody has conversations like that about us. And I've, I've been in good arguments about, you know, like who's your Mount Rushmore construct your cast from, cause I'm old enough.

I started watching the show. They initially had the best ofs in the seventies when I was a little kid, but it was on a normal time. But then the first real season I watched was probably the last initial Lauren season. So I've seen all of them since. So I have like really strong S&O opinions that probably like 10 people care about.

But I still feel like Eddie and Will Ferrell and Hartman, like they just have to be in whatever conversation. And then Gilda, who's like, you know, that predates basically anybody. But if you go back and you look at the Gilda sketches, like she was out of control. She was like a phenomenon.

She got lost in history. But Maya Rudolph was another one that I think got a little lost, mainly because she became a, you know, she was in Bridesmaids and some of these other movies. So it's, people forget like the Saturday Night Live parts. And then Tina and Amy were there

and they were pretty big at that point. Kristen Wiig came in, but Maya was always kind of pretty steady. I don't know. That was my Maya pitch. Yeah. I'm fully with you on the Maya. And then I can just confirm that.

And that's what's a really cool thing for me too. Like to be, even when I started SNL, to be at those table reads, like obviously I was a fan of the show going into it. My first season could not believe I was there. I had always been a fan of Beck, had always been a fan of Cecily. I will say at those table reads, also just the amount of things those two can do.

Like any character, any accent, sing. Just like they really were like the backbone, especially of the table reads where I was just like oh man i already liked you and thought you were so talented but like holy shit like there isn't anything that i've ever found that they can't do i mean same goes for keenan you know it's just like oh yeah and you only you know it's like there's especially when there's a big cast now there's only like five live sketches on a show so it's like sometimes I'm like, you guys have no idea how much these people have inside. Yeah.

I wish some of that more of that stuff was online. I know it can't be because they have to they don't want to step on the show. They've done a better job of like the deleted sketches popping up. Because there was like a couple last year. There was like a first take sketch they did.

I was like, how is that not on the show? I know. Who is that? Chris Redd, Stephen A. Smith. It's like fantastic. Yes. Killer. But I don't like when the celebrities

who are being parodied then have fun with how great it was. Because I was, like my favorite was when Mark Wahlberg got mad at Andy Samberg, and then they had to bring him in the next week to like smooth it over. And he was on the sketch, but I like, I like the era when the celebrities would get mad at the, uh, impersonations.

Now it's like a little more friendly. Maybe that's just the way life is. Um, wait, we had to talk about the Sandler movie quickly. Oh yeah. Oh my gosh. You played like a, I don't know. It's like a genie bus type character. Totally. oh my gosh, Hustle You played like a, I don't know, it was like a Genie bus type character Totally, oh my gosh

But I was so excited because I'm a huge fan of yours So I didn't know you were in it And then all of a sudden you popped up And I was like, oh Sandler You put Heidi in, this is great But I thought, my whole family loved that movie I thought it was really good It seemed like a kajillion people watched it

Yeah, I loved it I mean obviously I was bred to love that movie. I thought it was really good. It seemed like a, like a kajillion people watched it. Yeah, I loved it. I mean, obviously I was bred to love that movie because Sandler's one of my heroes and I'm obsessed with the NBA. So the fact that I got to be in it, if it had been like the worst reviewed movie in the world, I would still defend it till the day I die is the best movie in the world. But then it was so cool. I mean, I even went to the premiere with a friend of mine who was fully not a sports fan. I mean, I didn't totally know that going in, but he told me afterwards, he was like,

I have to be honest. I, and I was like, oh no, he's going to say he hated it. He was like, I don't care about sports at all. And I really loved that oh, no, he's going to say he hated it. He was like, I don't care about sports at all. And I really loved that movie. Wow. Yeah. It was good. It was satisfying.

It's something for everybody. Plus, you got to work with Sandler, who's a nice guy. Yeah, the best. I mean, you don't even have any Sandler stories because he's just like a nice, normal guy. No, he's like a nice, normal guy. I mean, one thing that's really cool about sandler was that there's a writer on the show dan bulla who him and sandler work together quite a bit and like my kind of like second and third season if sandler liked a sketch i did he would usually

text dan on sunday and be like oh that like um cousin mandy thing of heidi's like tell her i loved it or something and so dan would always like tell me you know stanley loved last saturday and i was just like oh my gosh that's so cool and then my fourth season and you know i racked up like probably like three of those and that was like the coolest thing ever um where dan was playing telephone and then my season uh on the show i did the last dance sketch and i got a text like you know it's probably like 1 30 in the morning like right after the show it ended from a number that i didn't know and it was like hey heidi this is sandler like you just blew my mind with uh the last dance like and so i knew i was, oh my God, this time it wasn't through Dan. This time it was

really him reaching out. That's a big deal. That's awesome. I'll have that screenshot. It was the best moment ever. Well, wait, so here's my last question. Are you now in the Kansas City, St. Louis mafia, the celebrity mafia that Godfather Paul Rudd runs. And it's like John Hampton and all these people. Did you get accepted? Was there an initiation thing? What, what happened with that? I mean, I do feel like I know all those people now and I love them. And like, we definitely talk about the chiefs a lot. And so was there some, was there a text thread you were welcome to the, Is there some secret door?

I just want more. Everybody's tight-lipped about it. There wasn't. Okay, actually, back to sports. It was more of a huddle. That's how I know I'm in. There was like a huddle. Okay, that's good.

For some reason, there's a lot. I don't know why that area produced so many Hollywood people. It doesn't really make a lot of sense. It's not like Pittsburgh's cranking out all these different actors and Saturday Night Live cast members. But for some reason, the Missouri extended area has become a place. Even Kimmel's wife is from there. The head writer of Kimmel show. It's it's it's I don't get it.

Yeah, it's this would be a good investigation. Somebody should do this. I mean, I did always like I was always such a fan of theirs and I don't know. I'm I'm not a I'm pretty modest person. I am a modest person. But

even before I mean, even before any of person, but even before, I mean, even before any of this SNL stuff started, I always had this hope. Once I saw those guys kind of coming out of Kansas city and I was like, Oh my God, they're all so funny. Like Kekner and Rudd and Sudeikis and Stone Street and Riggle. I was like,

I just hope that, but there's like not a lady really in the bunch. That's like, and I was like, I just hope that can be me. But at the time I was doing hair. So I was like, it probably won't. I'm really not doing anything to become that woman. But somehow it's happened.

The huddle happened. I'm in. Congratulations. Thank you. It was nice to see you. Thanks for coming on I now I'm rooting for

you know I take I'm an only child when I I want I want to be right I want my picks to work now that I've

picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl I feel like I'm I'm a little bit on the bandwagon I also don't feel like I'm I'm

I'm turning my back on the Patriots because my nephew Kyle my producer is going to hear this but we're not going to be very good this season like I'm turning my back on the Patriots because my nephew Kyle, my producer, is going to hear this, but we're not going to be very good this season. So I don't feel like I'm betraying the Pats by kind of keeping

an AFC team on the side, like an AFC Gumar on the side. You guys have like 20 years. We've had like four years so far. So just jump over to us for a year. Bring us your luck. Yeah. I'm not going to be wearing Chiefs paraphernalia, but I'm just in the back of my head. I'm like, you know, if it can't be the Pats, I hope it's the team I picked. All right. Good

luck with the next SNL season. It was great to see you. Thank you. Good to see you too. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Heidi. Thanks to Rahim. Thanks to Kevin Clark. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. Thanks to Steve Cerruti and Dylan Berkey as well. You can see little snippets from this podcast on youtube.com slash Bill Simmons. You should also follow me at TikTok because, uh, the people on the talk, they just can't get enough of my dumb TikToks. And I have to be one of the oldest people.

Brian Koppelman's older than me, but 33BS33 is my handle. Unless TikTok wises up and just gives me at Bill Simmons. But for the meantime, at 33BS33. Maybe they'll verify me at some point. I am back on Thursday with the first and hopefully most successful yet installment of Million Dollar Picks. I can't wait.

See you then. I don't have On the wayside