The Bill Simmons Podcast - Best NFL Teams, Football GOATs, and Week 7 Picks With Howie Long and Peter Schrager 

Episode Date: October 23, 2020

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Super Bowl champion and longtime NFL analyst Howie Long to discuss Tom Brady's Buccaneers finding their equilibrium, Dak Prescott's injury, top NFL defenses, the perplexing Packers, a competitive AFC East, various football GOATs, old-school NFL stories, the chemistry of the Fox NFL Sunday crew, his post-football movie career, and more (1:00). Then Bill talks with Peter Schrager of Fox Sports and NFL Network about some NFL predictions, including LeVeon Bell's impact on the already-stacked Kansas City Chiefs, the battle for the NFC East, and more before Bill shares his million-dollar NFL picks for Week 7 (1:04:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

coming up for the first time all year, an all football edition of the BS podcast. Howie Long, Peter Schrager, Million Dollar Picks. That's all next. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer.

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So are The Press Box, David Shoemaker, Brian Curtis. They're going to be reacting as well. Check out both of those on the Ringer Podcast Network. Coming up, Howie Long, who, by the way, when he came on the Zoom when we started taping the podcast, we were talking about Charlestown, but we weren't actually recording yet. But I forgot to do a whole Charlestown thing with him because he grew up in Charlestown. I lived there for nine, 10 years after college. And just maybe next time we'll talk about that. But he's there. And then Peter Schrager from the NFL Network

helping me out with a million dollar picks for week seven. Need a little bit of a comeback. That's all next. First, our friends from Pro Gym. All right. Somehow this has never happened. Howie Long is here. I've had his son's been on the pod. His son was with the Ringer for a little bit.

You have two sons who are now former football players, although I'll believe the former... I don't know. One of them comes back. Who's the better one to come... better odds to come back, Chris or Kyle? Chris won't... Chris is two things. He's hard to kill

and it's impossible for him to let it go. Right. He's one of those guys that just wanted to play forever. And I get it. Kyle is a guy who I think needed more of a destination on a weekly basis. I don't think idle time really served him well and he's on the CBS pre-show

you know which is you know I think not a lot of people see it but I think the people who need to see it see it and he's got a real gift for it but once again you know he texted me the other day said I'm 298 you know I feel good you know I'm like you know it's hard you see guys go back and we've seen it we've seen it in in in football and uh it's like gronk gronk was he was like the 66 cadillac that got parked in the garage for like two years and nobody started it up. And the first four or five weeks were, it was like,

you know, cause I like Gronk. I'm a big Gronk fan. He's a lot of fun, but you worry about guys when, you know, it looks like you're lumbering. And I think there was some of that early on.

And I think last week was kind of a, a game where, you know, I'm not sure that he's fully healthy when you're spiking the ball with your left arm. That gives me concern. But he looked more like Gronk and I think the car kind of warmed up. Well, Gronk is my favorite Patriot of all time. That's my favorite team. I loved him the most. And it was painful to watch him those first couple of weeks. Wait a second. Sam Bam? Sam Bam's top five. No, Sam Bam's top five.

Sam Bam was good. No, Gronk was just, he brought so much joy. I think the best at his position ever. He was certainly, him and John Hanna and Brady, we had three iconic guys at their positions, right? But I could see those first couple of weeks. It's like, this isn't Gronk.

And last week he looked like last Sunday, he looked like Gronk at least 80% of it. Yeah, he looked like Gronk and you know, the kind of, you know, that, that drag across the middle and,

you know, that's his kind of route. And, and, and of course the touchdown was, was vintage Gronk. And I'm happy for him I hope he holds up and I think both Tom and and Gronk made really I think Tom led the way

but I think Tom choose wisely is that that's the phrase from one of the Indiana Jones movies and I think Tom really chose wisely because it's a team that's built to go. Well, and they've been really careful with Gronk because I think one of the mistakes that Pat's made, he took a lot of hits and especially he was so big at some point that guys were diving at his knees and that's how he hurt one of the knee injuries. I think they've been careful about how they're using him. He's not going across the middle and just getting clocked, right? He's always drifting toward the back of the end zone or toward the sideline,

that kind of stuff. He's one of those guys where it's kind of like Cam. The first time I saw Cam, it was at a Pro Bowl. Kyle was playing in the Pro Bowl, and I saw him, and it was almost like i just had tourette's i said golly you're a big son of a bitch right and it's like i've i've never seen a quarterback like that uh and so proportioned and 6'5 255 and all of it and gronk's another one of those guys until you walk up on him you don't really get the perspective of how big he is. And I think because of the rule changes and the way the game is officiated now,

you've taken the head away and, you know, you can't go anywhere near it. And particularly with a big guy like Gronk, they're going right for the legs. And those leg hits, every time I see one I just went you know it was kind of like the DAC injury the DAC injury had a I don't know it had a really profound impact on me I didn't see it until I landed here in Arizona and you know my phone was blowing up from the guys at work and I I saw it and it was kind of like the Joe Sizeman thing works. Like, I don't want to see it again. You know what I mean? If you've ever been injured,

if you've ever been operated on, if you know, and our family has been operated on a lot, you know, when my two, I said this Sunday when my two boys went down, you know, it wasn't that kind of impact where, you know, every time your kid goes down in a pile, you're like, get up, get up, get up, get up. And you, you're, you breathe a little bit easier when they do get up. He wasn't getting up, Dak. And, you know, and you take the dynamic of the contract or lack of contract and the,

the, the franchise tag, which I'm not, I'm not a fan of, never have been. And I don't know whether it was the Cowboys or it was, you know, the agent or whatever, they just couldn't get a deal done. And my thought process has always been this, and I respect Dak for betting on himself, but I'm just of the thought process that you bet on yourself in basketball and baseball. Totally agree. just have a thought process that you bet on yourself in basketball and baseball totally you don't bet on yourself in football knowing how quickly it can go and and i said that to kyle and kyle said you know yeah neck fusion shoulder surgery elbow surgery knee surgery ankle reconstruction and you know they're wondering why you can't block the three technique, you know? Right. It's like, hello. Well,

Gronk, I mean, he had two really bad ones because he, he basically, he played, he's played the Superbowl with like a fractured elbow, whatever that was, a fractured forearm. That elbow doesn't look right.

Yeah. It makes a left at the corner. It's yeah. But you talked about Tampa, how good they look. So we're at the point of the season, you know, we have six weeks under our belt kind of know what we have in some degrees I think

with quarterbacks we always know well we know in this respect there's four defenses that I think have kind of stood out right Tampa Chicago Baltimore Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh and I think those four defenses at least look like playoff defenses.

That doesn't mean they're going to win the Superbowl, but I don't really see another defense that I like as much as those four. Do you? No, I don't. And, and it's interesting because if you make a chart and I w I was sitting here before we get on and I made a chart of who do I know is a true kind of there for real, the chiefs, what the chiefs did last week, you know, you go to the game two weeks ago versus the Raiders, you get one dimensional,

you're putting a lot of pressure on your offensive line. You're putting a lot of pressure on your quarterback when you're multi-dimensional like that and you run the ball almost 50 times and Hilaire I loved I loved the pick and I loved him going to Andy Reid because I I was thinking Westbrook I'm thinking you know that style of guy only thicker and more physical. And I think we saw all that and, and, and now they, they add another weapon and you know, the defenses, I think Spagnuolo's got it, you know, they picked it up last year towards the end of the year. They, they weren't good then they were okay.

And at the end of the year and going into the Superbowl, they picked it up. I think what we saw at the end of the Super Bowl, closing the game out with the run game, was kind of a change of pattern and philosophy for Andy. Andy's always been a guy that wants to throw the ball, and it's interesting because he's an offensive lineman from back in the day. But getting the run game going, that makes them near impossible to defend. Tennessee, I like. Tannehill, you know, it's an indictment of Miami.

It's an indictment of the staff. It's how could he be so good in Tennessee? And we're seeing it again now this year. And I know the run game. The hits keep coming with Adam Gase. I know. We're running out of ways to talk about how terrible he is as a head coach. And I like Adam.

And it's almost like when you see the post-game press conferences, it's like someone end it for me. Someone stop it. Like throw the towel in. It's a prideful fighter that just wants to keep going until somebody throws the towel in mercifully from the corner. I'm not sure what the situation is. I like Joe Douglas a lot. I think they've got a boatload of picks.

It'll be interesting to see if they're in the sweepstakes for the quarterback. Oh, they're in it. I would say they're the favorite. Let's say they're in position to would say they're the favorite let's say let's say they do they're in position to do that yeah what do you do do you trade donald and you know you you load up on more picks and you've got the the kid at number one uh i i think so uh but i'm thinking chiefs tennessee tampa bay pittsburgh and then i've got the column on the right, the Ravens, the run game's not what it was.

Lamar's not throwing with the same kind of accuracy. The Colts, you know, last week was kind of a microcosm of where they are. And I'm a big Philip Rivers fan. You know, I don't know him. He talks a lot of crap. I get it. He's one of those guys that he's just like – it's like an old cowboy who's, you know, still on the rodeo circuit. And, you know, he looks a little banged up and a little weathered.

And last week it was a tale of two halves. And I'm not sure about them. The Cards are a team that – are they the team that just thumped the Cowboys? Or are they the team that, you know, loses to, you know, whoever? And Frisco, I always say, because I think Kyle Shanahan is special. And I think if the quarterback can stay healthy and the run game is effective, and some of their young players on defense can come around. And then the middle column, the Seahawks are great. Russell's great. Metcalf's great. I get all that. Their defense is horrific.

Can you win with a one-dimensional team? Yeah. If history tells us anything, you can't. And, you know, I've got Green Bay in there. Was last week an anomaly? Or was it the 13-3 Packers who went to San Francisco during the middle of the season and got thumped and then got thumped again in the playoffs? Does that style of football match up poorly with them?

And the Saints. I don't know where Drew is. You know, and the Michael Thomas thing is a concern. You know, the one game kind of internal suspension. And I put Bill in that middle category. You have to. You know, I think last week was kind of a byproduct of the Patriots are all about meet, prepare, walk through, train, weight room, X's and O's, and all the things that you talked about with them not taking necessarily good care of Gronk. They're a team that is unrelenting and and that starts with the head coach and if you're looking for a game plan and people said who's their defense have i mean half the

half the front seven opted out all the really key players opted out there's a reason why bill's game plan is in the hall of fame versus buffalo i mean bill is there's Bill and, you know, Sean Payton. You know, there's a couple other coaches who I like, but Bill is personnel, salary cap, offense, defense. He can coach every position on the field. He's in a different stratosphere than everyone else. So two things off your list, which I enjoyed. I would put Tennessee in the middle because I have no idea if their defense is any good at all. Like to me, what you said about Seattle, I feel like you could have said about Tennessee. It's nowhere near that extreme. You don't think so? It's manageable down there. And, you know, the other part of it is, and you being a New England guy, you know, you look at all the, you look at Bill Walsh's coaching tree. Yeah.

My gosh, there's a lot of great coaches come off that tree. Now look at Bill's tree. And right now, I think we're looking at, I think Flores and Vrabel for sure. That move Vrabel made last week to, you know, purposely, you know, draw the penalty, stop the clock. He's done that like five times. And people have said that when he was there, he was the guy that questioned the game plan or he was that smart. He could go back and forth with

the coordinator and they knew he was going to be a coach. But those two guys, I think, have a shot at being really special coaches. It's hard to find guys out of that staff who have moved on and done well. I've been blown away by Flores. He was awesome against the Pats last year. I also like the timing. I want to talk about the Tua thing in one second, but I like the timing of when they did it. Cause I had that Jets Dolphins game on. Cause there was only two games.

Cause the NFL did the dumb thing where they only had the two games in the late time slot. It was bizarre. Fitzpatrick was bad. We were watching rodeo. There was like rodeo in the corner. I was watching bull riders get killed. I said, shut that off.

I had the movie Face Off on my third TV just because I was like, oh, that'll be a fun one. That's horrible. Yeah. And then Fitzpatrick, who was bad in that Jets game. And that was the first time just kind of watching like, man, why don't they just play Tua? What are they waiting for? Especially with the Herbert thing where Herbert looks so good. And it's like, well, that's a whole, that's a whole nother conversation, but let's, we

could have it now. I'd like, I'd like, well, let's deal with Tua first. Tua, it was all about a couple of things. One is, is Tua right physically and they're seeing him every day and they know it better than anyone and is, has Tua fully grasped the concepts of our offense. Can, can he go out there and defend himself intellectually pre-snap? Because so much of the game is pre-snap i mean yes it's whether

it's tom or drew or you know you name it the great quarterbacks peyton was like that it just they beat you pre-snap and it was interesting because there's all this pre-snap motion jet sweeps all that stuff peyton did none of that because because Peyton wanted a static defense pre-snap. He wanted to know exactly what he was getting. If you send somebody in motion, they make adjustments, you've got to recheck the defense. And I'm not sure that he was comfortable with that. But Tua to me was, I think the organization, and it's interesting because you can trace the dysfunction with teams that are poor over a period of time and i think with with them right now the gm and i think the head coach there's a plan and they had an idea of exactly what they wanted to do yeah uh

and i think right now was the time if he was right physically and he was right mentally, let's put him in. Because all of a sudden, you know, we thought Buffalo was going to run away with this thing. If you're looking at week one and you say Buffalo is going to dominate the Patriots, this is the year. They've been getting their lunch money taken for 15 years, and now's the time. And, you know, I think New England kind of surprised some people early on. And I think Miami is maybe a two away from competing in that division. Easier schedule, too. I mean, Buffalo could have three losses right now if that Rams game,

whatever that'll happen on that pass that they're playing. What a game that was. Yeah, it was awesome. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer.

Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. The other team you didn't mention, which we talked about the four defenses that stood out Chicago.

So do you have them left column, middle column, or right column? I have them in the middle column. I'm not sure whether they're good, but they're floating between the legit and the okay because the offense is when you're, when you're an offense, here's, here's the thing.

When you got an offense like that, you're putting so much pressure on your defense to be great every single week in a day and age when, you know, defenses have been kind of legislated out and, you know, everything is put in place for the offense to be dynamic. And we've seen that through the first five weeks of the season.

The scoring is off the charts, touchdowns, the whole thing. And I get it. People want to see that. It sells tickets and puts people in the seats at home on TV. I think it just puts so much pressure on your defense when you're out there scoring 17, 18 points a week and quarter to quarter, you don't know what you're going to get. And some of that is, you know, they, they, they lose Cohen. That's a big loss for them.

They lose two of their offensive linemen. That's a loss. And I think Nick is a guy that, Nick is that guy in Vegas when he's hot, just step away from the table. When he's not, get him away from the table. And I think we've seen that, not just week to week, we've seen it quarter to quarter, half to half. We've seen it quarter quarter. I was going to say, yeah, he can be a different guy in the second quarter than he was in the first. That's right. I think they came from behind in the fourth quarter and three games down 13 or more points.

I mean, yeah, you can't sustain that. Uh, not with a quarterback that's, that's good and sometimes hot. Uh, but sometimes it's not, I just don't believe in that. Well, I like to gamble from time to time. You and my son. Every year there's a team that just sticks it to me. And this year it's the Bears. And the Lions week won. Ridiculous comeback. No business. You're like, all right,

that's an aberration. But then last week, I really liked that Carolina team. I think they're well coached. And the Bears played really well. Like, they really shut down their offense. I think Carolina, even without McCaffrey, their offense is good. Yeah. They hung around. And I think Moore

had three or four drops. He did. One in the end zone, which you're like. Yeah, it was a bad run. Second, you catch a hundred of these a day. Yeah. And then, of course, the fourth down play that ended the game where it's, you know, okay, maybe the ball's a little bit inside. I don't know.

Make a catch. I just, you know, for a team like that to be where they are without McCaffrey and I think their running back played extremely well and ran into a defense that it's kind of like Green Bay going down to Tampa Bay. Yeah. That group down there, bowls, top bowls. You think the Jets would like to have top bowls right now um it's a tough one that defense is real and those two linebackers

they eye to the ball and they're coming they. They're bringing it when they get there. As the Mike Tyson thing, they have bad intentions. And that young corner Davis is – I just think they have some really – a mix of, you know, the Sioux and JPP and then the young players and, you know, at the second level, you know, again, and then on the back end. And I think Todd Bowles is a really, really good coach. They go back all the way to Temple, Bruce Aarons.

I think he played for Bruce at Temple. Yeah, when I'm looking at defenses, when I'm watching 10 hours of football every Sunday, I always, are you getting a push? Are you pushing the offensive line back? Are guys flying around the ball? And then I was like on the sidelines,

there's always like those two or three plays, big hit and everyone in the sidelines locked in because they know they have a good defense and they check all three of those. The Ramsey hit versus, uh, versus, uh, Oh yeah.

Against gold Tate. Yeah. A couple of weeks ago, the whole side led up. I mean, hey, they've got two generational players with the Rams. Whether you like Ramsey or you agree with his antics or any of that, let's separate church and state. Ramsey is a pretty good corners mike haynes was so good it was boring and he never he never you know never no fist pumps no no jumping up and down mike just

shut you down and went back to the huddle and he didn't even have to go on the huddle because we were in cover one lester and him didn't need to be. They were two totally different guys. Lester was big and physical and Vic Vegas. He gambled on tendencies. Mike just said, whatever you do, I'm going to mirror. This kid, Ramsey, is

special. Of course, Aaron is... I think when it's all said and done, Aaron will be the best defensive tackler. Play the game. Wow. Why'd you have to bring up my canes? I was having such a good time.

Yeah, we got, we got that one. I, I, it's one of those trades. It's kind of like when we, we traded,

we traded Lachey for Jay Schrader. It was one of those kinds of trades. It was like, wait a second. Well, the Mike Haynes was worse because he was on the Patriots I think for five years, maybe six, and they were just being cheap. And he was

the best cornerback in the league. He also was like a kick returner the first year, and he was amazing at that too, but he was just like lights out. He's one of the best football players I've ever met. And then you guys get him, and we had the whole history with the Raiders from the Sugar Bear-Hamilton game, the rough and the passer on third and 17. Hey, we had more.

Worst football loss ever. Yeah. We had more history than that. It was like there was an article in the Boston Globe, I think, the week we were playing the Patriots in the playoffs, and we just laid an egg, fumbled at the end of the game, and lost in the playoffs

to the Patriots, and they went on to play the Bears. It would have been a much better matchup us versus the Bears. Not for me. I really enjoyed beating the Raiders. It was great, I'm sure, for all the Wingman fans I and I get it uh but it was so funny because I had I had done an interview with the Boston Globe

and the Patriots didn't even have me up for a an interview uh didn't have us not not a coach not a scout anybody came by to even see me and it was like a second round pick no no i know i i get it but they didn't they they were not interested wow and i i think the the the just of the article was the patriots don't look at local guys like freddie schmurlus or you know fill in the blank so the this guy was walking up and down the sidelines yelling at me. And I'm saying, who the hell is this guy? He looks like he's drunk. You know, why is he on the sideline?

Oh, no. Is this the owner's son, Patrick Sullivan? So he walks up to me and says, now at the end of the game, he wants to make nice. And I'm wired a little different at that time I mean I'm 60 now and I'm I'm a lot calmer than I was then and I just I was always

trained my helmet didn't come off until I got in the locker room and I always walked out the field with Matt Millen and he came up and wanted to make nice. And I kind of blew him off. He said, you don't know who I am.

And I'm like, no, who are you? He said, I own the team. I said, and I don't know how I came up with this so quickly. I think I said something like, well, correct me if I'm wrong, but unless your old man died last night, you don't own shit. That's a good one. He put his hand up to kind of, I don't know whether he was going to grab my jersey or try to, you know, and Matt Mellon saw it and thought he was a drunk and clubbed him over the head. Now, allegedly clubbed, allegedly clubbed him over the head with a helmet.

Let me tell you something. There was blood everywhere. And the irony is the guy that grabbed me from behind was, you know, an off-duty cop from Boston, who I think my uncle knew, because my uncle worked in station one. And it was just ironic. And years later, I still see him periodically. And he seems like a nice guy. And I think it was one of those moments we'd all like to have maybe turn out a little

different. Let me tell you something. That was not one of the thousand dumbest things that Sullivan did in the state of Massachusetts, confronting two Raiders. I don't even know if they're crap. I'm sure there was more dumb things by Sullivan, but it's top 5,000. Do you know something that I don't know? Do you have a weapon in your pocket? Oh, my God.

Because you're not kicking my ass. When I was growing up as a Patriot fan, the only good real chance we had was that year against the 76 team when they stayed third and 17. And that hung over us. And then that team fell apart. So then those playoffs would beat the Dolphins and you guys. And it was like, oh, my God, team of destiny. And then the Bears beat us by 36 points in the Superbowl.

The only game I, the only professional football game I ever went to, I fractured my ankle. My senior year, I was living with an uncle out in Milford and somehow, I don't know who got tickets. And then we were up in the, you know, the nosebleeds for the Patriots versus Raiders in 1976. Oh, we killed them that killed, killed them. Yeah. But I, but I do remember this. I remember them running out of the tunnel and thinking, Oh my God,

it's like a biker gang. And then I get drafted by them. I looked up on the map where Oakland was and it was maybe my third plane ride or fourth plane ride in my life and went out to Oakland and made 38 grand bought a used coupe de ville and uh was on top of the world and then you said that the Oakland to LA move uh yeah out of nowhere LA and then back to Oakland, and then Oakland to Vegas. And, you know, it was really a shame because I think in a perfect world, I think everyone in the organization and certainly the players that played in Oakland would love to have the team in Oakland in a new stadium.

That wasn't happening. That wasn't a reality. And anyone that tells you any different is crazy. And I think mark made every effort to get that done uh and the league uh when they went through the whole move to la and they gave the kind of the rams and you know that whole thing down there uh he just decided he's gonna go to vegas and it was such an owl move you know i'm gonna take the team to vegas and that's why i didn't mind it it actually was

they're going to leave oakland vegas seemed like the one other place that made sense plus i think the team is it's kind of a regional team it's kind of a the raiders are a southwestern team yeah so you know you've got vegas you've got you know parts arizona you've got northern california you've got southern california and i think people from LA are going to drive the four or five hours to Vegas and, and, and go to the games every week. I, and the stadium is, um, have you been there? No, I'm dying to go though. It's cool. It's amazing. It's, it's a perfect state. The LA stadium is very LA. Yeah. This looks like the death Star landed in Vegas.

I'm sure it looks cool from when you're flying in on the plane. You must jump out. I had a couple off-the-wall things for you. Yeah. So with football, in basketball, we just went through LeBron wins the title. We have to do the whole LeBron Jordan goat debate again and football doesn't really operate like that I think we've decided Brady's the goat

quarterback Rice is still the goat receiver and LT is the goat outside linebacker pass rusher and those are really the only three goats we have right? I will tell you those

I would watch film when I was playing only three goats we have, right? I will tell you those. I would watch film when I was playing, and the two guys that were the most dominant guys I saw on film, Dwight Stevenson from the Miami Dolphins at center. He did things at center that it was like he was playing Pop Warner football. He was that dominant. Yeah. And, you know, it got to the point where they would just take me for men and have me drop down on center because, you know,

he would disrupt our defense. He'd go first level, second level, and then on some plays, get to the third level and pick up a safety. LT was the best by a wide margin. I mean, forget about records, forget about Super Bowls and all that. If you put on the film, he's the most dominant front seven player I've ever seen. And Belichick is passionate about that too. He's same point. And played angry and the whole thing. And was one of those guys that you could lock. There's very few guys who are like this. I'd say Dion, Barry Sanders,

LT. You could lock those guys in a room for like two months with nothing but a TV or refrigerator and maybe throw some food in there periodically and let them out after three months and they could walk on the field, put on a uniform and dominate a game. Right. LT, they keep saying the next LT. I'm like, yeah, it's not happening. Haven't seen him. aaron donald is like that at defensive tackle uh okay so you would have him number one right now oh yeah okay and the separation is who's number two well that's how i feel about rice right i still feel like i think you could make a case moss was the most talented receiver you've had, but Rice's resume is just so far ahead of everybody else. Randy by a wide margin. But it's the perfect storm of circumstance.

Is Jerry Rice Jerry Rice if he goes to Minnesota? Is Jerry Rice Jerry Rice if he goes to Minnesota? Is Jerry Rice Jerry Rice if he goes to Detroit? I think he's probably, you know, a Hall of Fame player. But when you go to San Francisco and you're in that system and you're playing for Bill Walsh and your quarterbacks are Joe Montana and Steve Young, you know, Jerry's Jerry's Jerry, and there's no disputing that. And I'm not an expert on wide receivers. I'm not pretending to be.

The numbers today are so hard to read. Everyone has a hundred catches. Everyone has 100 catches. Everyone has 95 catches. Some have 116. Thomas down in New Orleans had what? 117. I mean, Terry threw...

Here's how different the game is. Put this in perspective. Steelers were a dominant team. I was at Villanova when Steelers were a dominant team. And I was at Villanova when Steelers were dominant. And, you know, took my number because of Joe Green and, you know, was really obsessed with all that. Their offensive line averaged 253 pounds. The biggest offensive line in the league now averages 325. Joe Green was 275,

282. The guy that's playing that position now is 320, 330. The game is bigger, stronger, faster. The game is challenging defenses as much horizontally as they are vertically now, where you've got a smoke screen out to a wide receiver, and he's one block away from being one-on-one with a safety. And if you don't get out there, which I think wears defenses down, and it's one of the reasons why numbers were so high the first five weeks, no real training camp, no real preseason games, no real OTAs. And usually defenses are ahead of offenses and the script got flipped.

And I think part of it was just what I'm talking about. Smoke screens, the jet sweeps, all that where you're forcing big people to play horizontally. They're used to going vertically and playing in a box. The box got expanded to the width of the field. So I think defense has got worn down. Well, and you could also take chances over the middle of the field and not worry about murdering your wide receiver tight end.

Totally. And guys like, you know, I sit next to Tony Gonzalez And he talks about it all the time Jeez These guys Nobody's

There's no threat You don't get hit And he's right Yeah And he's right Well it's funny You talk about those The wide receivers

And Rice When I was growing up Cliff Branch was like The best deep threat And he probably had Why is Cliff Branch Not in the Hall of Fame It's like 50 catches a year

Because nobody threw but every time he caught one it was 20 yards and we had Stanley Morgan who I feel the same way about him I think he's a hall of famer because if you prorate his numbers

to what they would be now he'd be like 90 catches and 1500 yards a year 1700 yards a year 12 touchdowns well you look at Cliff's playoff numbers and here's the litmus

test for me. What's the first thing you have to address on Sunday night or Monday morning when you're putting together a game plan? If it's LT, if it's Aaron Donald, if it's fill in the blank, if it's Deion Sanders, whoever it is i i actually believe that cliff was a guy that he changed coverage because he was at one point maybe the fastest person on the planet yeah think about that it's a big planet a lot of people cliff branch it's like some guys throw the ball like john elway throws a ball to you on a on a deep out you can hear the ball whistle

you can hear that with guys like you know the kid in buffalo you can hear it with guys like, you know, the kid in Buffalo. You can hear it with guys like, you know, the guy in Kansas City. There are guys that just can throw the shit out of the ball. And there's wide receivers that throw the fear of God into defenses. And Clifford was that. He was definitively that. And he made that offense go because our offense from the moment al took over was it was all about verticality it was all about threatening the deep portion of the field to open up everything else i mean i remember marcus allen led the league in rushing i think he

made the statement that'll never happen again. Right. I remember when Moss showed up in New England, it was the same thing. He changed the geometry of our team where it was like, oh my God. And Brady was like, he won the lottery. It's like, my God, everything's open underneath now because they're so terrified of Moss. Everybody's

shifting to his side and all that stuff. The reason I brought up the GOAT stuff, because you played with Bo, I did a 30 for 30 about him, I'm going to say eight, nine years ago. I think you were in it. I wrote the Ford in his book. Is he the most talented running back?

If we had to say, who is the most, I'm just saying pure talent, DNA for the position. He's the most physically gifted. Yeah, okay. I mean, a couple of things. One, we had our offensive day was Thursday. Our defensive day was Wednesday and offensive day. I'd go behind the huddle and I'd sit on my helmet and I'd watch. And we had our mini defensive period, but it was offensive day and Bo came in and they give him a quick pitch.

And all you see is ass and thoughts. And it's like, he's not only all that, you know, eating potato chips and eating a burger and not being in the weight room, he's running a 4-2. There was an audible gasp on the road. I think it was a play down in New Orleans. We were down in New Orleans, and we ran a one-man reverse where the entire offense goes to the right.

We pitched to Bowe. He takes three hard steps, plants, reverses field. The tackle, the backside tackle, releases inside and peels back. So it's essentially a one-man reverse with the tackle. There was an audible gasp in the stadium. You just, I've never heard that in a stadium wow he was amazing uh he was a remarkable remarkable talent and it was you know because he got hurt i shattered my hand the same week he blew his hip off and we went up to buffalo was 25 below he got beat 58 to 3 and

you know you fly home trying to kill the pain and go right to the doctor. And poor Bo, he was, you know, never the same. At Pennzoil, we have one job, pioneering a motor oil so advanced, you don't have to think about your motor oil. Instead, you can think about how your engine sounds, how your stomach feels as the RPMs build, how your wheels hug the

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the Super Bowl, the lost great play of when the Pats lost to the Giants the first time. It was third down. Brady rolls out to the right. And basically, he's like, our best chance here is a 75-yard touchdown on the fly to Moss. Giants know that they're going to do it. And Moss is just running full speed. It's the greatest thing I think I've ever seen in person on a football field.

And Brady throws it as far as he can and Moss is going so fast he kind of like mistimed the jump by like remember that? a third of a second and it ends up and the Giants broke it up but it was there and it was like wow

you know what the killer was? the killer was Eli Manning avoiding five defenders. Ugh. Don't get me started. Spinning and wielding. All the holding penalties.

Up here and makes the throw. And it's like, Michael and I talked about that. It just wasn't meant to be. It could never happen again. The catch. No, it was ridiculous. Eli doing what he did. The blown coverage at the end of the game.

It just wasn't meant to be. You know what's funny, though? I do feel like they outplayed us in that game. The second Giants Super Bowl bothered me more because I just thought we were better. I didn't think the Giants played that well. We had Gronk was hurt. But that was one where I felt like they stole that.

The other one, they kind of kicked our ass. The defensive front was the MVP in the one game where they kicked your ass. It was the defensive front. And it was interesting because their philosophy was, and it was a new philosophy. It was like Dallas and San Francisco started the rotation thing. I never came off the field. Dallas and San Francisco started the rotation thing where you play four plays, five plays, the next guy comes in and you take a blow and you come back in. The Giants were the first team that I saw that got all four of

their best pass rushers on the field. Where Tuck moves from end into tackle, and Michael's there, and Osi's there, and they're just getting their four. They don't care where they're lining up. It's their four best pass rushers. And I think it was interesting because I think the first Super Bowl we covered, and when looking at the game on film,

watching the previous three games of St. Louis and the Rams and all that, I said, there's no way that the Patriots can beat them. There's just no way. They refused to run the ball. And they played right into what the Patriots wanted to do defensively. They took away what they wanted to take away, which Bill always does. And they were their own worst enemy. It was running. We didn't have the running game anymore. Morris got hurt during that season and it was gone. It was hubris. It was, you know, the arrogance of we're creative. We're going to just be creative and, you know, damn the torpedoes

and just both seem ahead. And I thought that was an issue. But conversely, I thought in that game, you just have to run the ball. You can't just throw, throw, throw and put your offensive line in position to block that front with those four guys. You play into the strength of what that team was. Football's weird like sometimes

you can feel it early where you're just like oh man we don't have control of the steering wheel in this game hey look the car is just taking us in places i don't want to go right now and you know you know when it's happening but hold on let's let's talk atlanta England. Right. That's the flip side. Okay. So Chris is on three, four trips and he's on his way in the car, going down to Richmond to take a trip down to Dallas. He's talked to Atlanta. He's talking to, you know, two or three other teams. But I remember he was on his way down to Dallas and Bill calls. And, you know, I think music plays when Bill, you know, maybe it's John Pasenda, you know, I don't know. If Bill calls and says, I want you, it's, you know, it's, it's like, and I had said to Chris, I said,

why are you playing? You've made all the money that you could ever want to make. Why are you playing? He said, I want to win. And I said, okay, let's look at it objectively. And this was just my Atlanta. Great. I like him too. Dallas is an intriguing situation. But you look at the last AFC East Division Championships over the last 10, 12 years. You look at Super Bowl appearances. You look at Super Bowl Championships. You look at Bill. And I hadn't been in the building. But had an idea of what it was all about and talked him out of going to one or two places and you know i don't know that i talked him out of it because chris and you know chris chris is going to make it his own one right but

here i was i mean i can't help you with your trigonometry, but I think I can help you with maybe some football stuff here. And we're doing the game, and we did the first two, three hours downtown. And I was fine. I was fine. And then we walked in the stadium, and it hit me like the humidity in July at Logan Airport when you get off the plane. Right. It was like my son's playing the Super Bowl. He was like, oh, my God, I'm so freaking nervous.

Yeah. And I talked him into going to New England. And now they're down 28 to 3. Oh, man. I'm the worst father in the world. I didn't know this story. Oh, my God. It was terrible.

It was horrible. I felt it was the worst feeling i've ever had in my life and i've had some you know some bad moments growing up and right the whole thing this was the worst i'm the worst father in the world the only thing i could help my son with is a total catastrophe not only are they going to lose they're going to lose in epic fashion. Yeah. Embarrassing. It's 28-3. Terry Bradshaw, who's a savant, turns to me and says, because I'm quiet. When I get nervous or I get angry, I get quiet. And I'm standing there in the end zone and I'm off by myself and he knows me. We've been together for 27 years. Terry knows me really well and he's known Chris since he was nine years old. So Chris grew up with Uncle Terry. He's like Uncle Buck. He's like the dysfunctional uncle. And he says, look, man, don't worry about it. They're going to go no huddle. Tom's going to chuck it all over the yard and it's going to be fine. And I'm like, how could he possibly know this? Sure enough.

So, and that moment after the game and Chris is on the set, you know, hall of fame, super bowl for me, nothing compares to that. Wow. You know, your son just won a world championship. And for a guy who played in a dimly lit mall in St. Louis. Right. And had 40 plus sacks in four years. In anonymity. If a tree falls in the woods and there's nobody there to hear it, does it make a sound? Well, not in St.

Louis. And, you know, I ran out of things to say to him on Sunday nights. He wanted so badly to win and wanted so badly to compete for a championship and to be able to do that and then come back the following year and go to Philadelphia, which was a better scheme for him and probably a more enjoyable circumstance from a scheme standpoint. And the whole parade and the whole thing was just, it was a magical time. We had a great time. I've told Chris his Philly Super Bowl was my least favorite of the two Super Bowls. That was the one I enjoyed the less. I had a question about, you've been doing this studio show forever now.

27 years? We're going to die on the set. 27, 28 years. So I did two years on NBA Countdown with four people. And the mechanics of a show and how it works, I was so fascinated by just everything about it. In the NBA case, we'd have

a half hour, five minute segments. Everybody's got to at least get their one in. You can't hog the ball too much because then you're cutting into someone else's time. Yeah, you're going to cost the number four guy. We had the fifth guy come in a couple times

and it was a nightmare. Now you got four guys staying around. It's impossible to interact. You guys have had five for a while. Depends. We have Terry, Michael, Jimmy, and me. Right. But then you'll have the ones with Menifee where you'll have five in there. Well, Kurt's the host. Yeah.

Kurt's really like a classic point guard distributor. Right, but that could go badly in the wrong hands. So you have that factor. Then you have the four guys he's got to set up. You can't have a point guard that's like, who's my man down in Houston, Russell Westbrook, who's great, who's dynamic, and you love watching him, but he's not a point guard. But most people, when they have that job, they don't do that. I may or may not have had experience with that. Kurt's one of the smartest people I know. He's really, really dedicated to knowing the game

and goes to training camp and converses with a lot of different players and coaches. dedicated to knowing the game and goes to training camp and, uh, converses with a lot of different players and coaches. And well, he knows he's there to make you guys look better. That's his job. He's a point guard. Yeah.

But have you had, how do you figure out how does everybody eat at the table? Like, do you have shows where it's like, Oh man, I just didn't say enough. Cause fucking Bradshaw was just babbling about brady for five minutes i have to tell you everyone on that set has a reason to kind of peacock up

yeah i mean they're they're you know there's a lot of super bowls there's a lot of hall of fames and and michael michael was the latest kind of addition for us and we couldn't have computer generated a better guy. Right. You know, you just, here's the one thing that starts with respect and the knowledge that no one on that set is going to lift themselves up at your expense on live television. There's a trust there. And also the nuance of, I, I understand when to kind of interrupt Terry. I understand, you know, in another sense, not to interrupt Jimmy, cause Jimmy's a rhythm guy. He's, he's starting to finish. And once he makes his point, that's fine. Then you can do what you gotta do. Michael, you can kind of go back and forth with Terry.

There's a point where you can, he's into a farm animal and he's making some kind of analogy back and forth with terry there's a point where you can he's into a farm animal and he's making some kind of analogy that you know god knows what and he's uh he's the kind of the white charles barkley he's yeah he's really amazing but we have a section it's section 105 and it's terry michael jimmy holly and we kind of know the topic of what we're going to discuss each one individually, but we're not a big rehearsal show. We do things live and the spontaneity. I think, you know, and I, I'm not,

I'm not coaching other groups and I'm not, you know, critiquing other people at all. I just think when you over-rehearse, it's canned. You're preaching to the choir. This was my big argument over and over again with ESPN. It was like, just give us the topic. Let us go. We all know basketball. Let's go. My favorite part of the show is the OT, which is the postgame. Right, because you can't script that.

You can't script it. You fly by the seat of your pants. And here's the trick. We know football. Right. So it's not like you're asking me about investments or architecture. I can talk to you about football all day long. I have a wealth of knowledge that's of no consequence to anyone. I think TV producers, sometimes they feel like they have to justify their job. We've had two great producers. Or they have the boss above them who's trying to justify his job. Like, well, what's the rundown? What was that? And it ends up being overthought where, like you just said, it's like, hey, man, we have a bunch of rings

and Hall of Fame on this stage. We're good. Just push us in the right direction. And people who are comfortable being on TV and comfortable with each other. And won't sell each other out. And there's, I have to tell you, we caught lightning in a bottle. And I laugh from 5.30 in the morning when I get there till 5.30 at night when I leave. I mean, my wife makes fun of me.

Anything Terry says is funny. And it is. He's just, he's hilarious. I mean, he's like that all what you see on TV is a scaled down version of what he is off offset. And the group is the chemistry is great. He and I couldn't be any more different. I'm from Boston. He's from Louisiana. I'm Catholic. He's Baptist. He's been divorced three times. I've been married 40 years. You have your teeth. Well, yeah. I mean, you know, some of them.

He's the big brother I never wanted. He really is. He's remarkable. You know that phrase, not playing with a full deck. How many cards are in Terry's deck at this point? Hey, let me tell you something. He's sold that Jed Clampett, Beverly Hillbillies. I'm going to go out to the cement pond and do my Gazintas, three Gazinta, four.

Four goes into eight. He's taken that all the way to the bank. He's one of the smartest people I know. He's the guy that I don't care what he's been through the night before. I played with guys like this. I played with the Raiders with guys like this. They could disappear for two days. Ball gets snapped.

They're ready to play. And Terry is 28 years. When that light comes on, my boy goes, well, it's funny that there's like multiple generations of football fans now who have no idea that he was such an important quarterback. Cause when I was growing up,

it was Staubach and Bradshaw and that was it. And that was the argument. And that's what we talked about. Terry beat the Cowboys, had his best games. And Terry will tell you, he said, look, it's like Troy. Yeah. If Troy played in a different offense, Troy would break so many records.

But Troy might not have three Super Bowls. True. That's the deal. And Troy's about winning. Terry's about winning. Terry's about winning. Terry would throw 22 balls in a Super Bowl. Yeah. You played 13 years.

Was that too few or too many or just right? I got to like operation number eight. And Chris was about eight years old. And it was kind of one of those deals where I didn't have the ability to not be 120% of football player. Yeah. And not that I wasn't. I was present, but I wasn't present, if that makes sense, as a dad. And I wanted to be that.

And it was the best decision I ever made. I coached high school football for eight years, coached little league baseball for eight years, was always there and tried to be as anonymous and as in the corner and off to the side as I possibly could be because I'm very mindful of it being about them and not about me, which is hard to do. But it was the best decision I ever made. It was great. Plus, you got to make Broken Arrow, which I still think holds up. It's a good action movie. It was fun. I was supposed to be there for, I think it was two, three weeks. It was sold to me as two weeks.

Just look mean. Yes, exactly. John Woo kept coming in my trailer and saying, we make you bigger. You're John Wayne. The next thing I know, I'm there for three months. You made a bunch of movies. You were

dabbling in this. Here was here was the problem i made broken arrow and fox had a preemption kind of clause in the contract where if another op another deal came in they had five days or 10 days or whatever it was right at first refusal to match the deal so disney came to me with a uh post-apocalyptic movie that what i think was like a 30 40 million dollar movie and yeah a big budget movie and and uh fox took me off of it to do firestorm yeah which had an unfinished script and, you know, they didn't have a director yet. And they told me

we were going to shoot it during the season. So I went from the set on Sunday nights, hopped in a commercial plane up to Vancouver, went through customs, sprinted to the hotel,

got to bed, got up at 5.30 in the morning, went into the woods, and shot five days a week, and we'll go back to LA. That was the point where, you know, it's like Diane said to me one night, she said, why are we doing this? Is it equal? Is it money? Yeah, I mean, why do you need this? And when it gets put to you in those terms, and here's Diane, who went to law school at USC. We went to Villanova together, practiced law for six years out in LA. And then after a third son was born, made the decision selflessly to say, I'm going to pack it in and I'm going to be a full-time 24-7 mom. Yeah. I'm going to pack it in and I'm going to be a full-time 24-7 mom. That's a great sacrifice.

Now I've played 13 years and it's all about me and it's all about football. At the end of the football, you think, well, it's time for me to kind of hold up my end of the bargain here and do a couple of the carpools and do all that. And then that movie Firestorm popped up and it was kind of a wake-up call for me to say, I can't be away from home for three months. The kids have set up a ramp and they're driving their bikes into the pool. And my wife has no shot at my three boys. Imagine my three boys without me there for three months. It's chaos.

It's chaos. There's multiple trips to the emergency room. It's dogs sleeping with cats it's mass hysteria i don't think you need it to totally walk away i think you could have done like a season on 24 as like the fbi director i'm not sure i trust like you could you didn't have to like totally walk away you could have well i could have dabbled really here was the thing though when i would go from fox and i would i would get the first flight home and I'd try to be a team stretch on Monday when Chris played and when Kyle played and when Howie played, that's over eight years. So it's kind of hard to fit things in when you're doing that. And then it's baseball and coaching little league baseball in the spring. And, you know, yeah. And, you know, little league baseball is practice every night. There's

two, three games a week. So where do you fit it in? You have to make a choice. And I don't regret the choices that I've made at all, at all. All right. Well, you would have been fun to see on 24 is the evil FBI guy once. Um, last question. This is quick answer. Should I let my son play football? He's almost 13 and he's built like a brick shithouse and wants to play. It was interesting because when Chris came to me and said he wanted to play, and I remember it was one of those conversations that husbands and wives had laying in bed when the lights are out, Chris wants to play.

And my wife said, oh, don't worry. He'll get his nose bloodied and he'll come home and he won't want to play. And boy, was I wrong. Wow. It's up to your son. And here was the thing that I felt comfortable with it, making the decision about our kids. It was the one thing that I could do. I could make sure they learned how to play the game the right way.

They learned how to play the game right way. They learned how to prepare. If your son is passionate about, I would start out with flag football and, and, and kind of go from there. And that's where they are now. I think a lot of, a lot of young youth football is,

is all kind of because, because of COVID thing stemmed into flag football, which if he enjoys it, God bless him. And if he wants to play piano, God bless him. But this is good to play piano, God bless him. But this is good advice, Howie Long. I'm glad we finally did this. This was fun. Good to see you. And I'm glad you're still cranking away on TV. It's always good to see you on Sunday as I'm trying to figure out 19 bets at the same time,

fix my fantasy lineup. You know what? It ought to be illegal that we get paid to do what we do. All right. Say hi to everybody at Fox we get paid to do what we do. All right. Say hi to everybody at Fox. Thanks for coming on. Appreciate it. Thanks, partner. All right. Take care.

All right. Peter Schrager is here. He's going to help me break down week seven. I need help with million-dollar picks, but let's start here. Well, first of all, what's it like to do good morning football in the mornings with four people in four different spots and delays? Do you ever get used to it, or it's just like playing with a sprained MCL? Yeah, we got the microfracture surgery. Yeah, it's the Gladwell 10,000 hours shit. I mean, that's what it is. We've been doing it since

April. So at first, when we're jumping all over each other on delay, it was really frustrating and it was like, it's hard to get into it, but now it's, it's crazy. You'll wake up, you'll, you know, splash some water through your hair, you'll brush your teeth. And then you'll go sit on a couch in a closet. Like I do in a Brooklyn apartment, that's 1300 square feet. And then I'm doing television for a million people. It's bizarre, But you have to adapt. Like everyone else, we're adapting. But I think we'll be returning to the studio eventually, and I welcome that.

I heard Kyle Brandt, no pants anymore. Just Speedo bikini underwear, and that's it. Because you can't see you guys from the waist down. You can't see anything. We have no idea what's going on down there. Crazy. Just don't pull a tube in. I wasn't going to say it.

All right. So Football Outsiders had, they released their DVOA and the Bucs were number one by a pretty significant margin. I don't love DVOA until about week 10 because I think that's such a,

you know, relatively small sample size. By like week nine, week 10, we finally have enough games. You can throw out everybody's worst game. Everybody's played a couple of tough teams at least once or twice.

But does Tampa seem like the best team right now to you? Does that pass the eye test? No, they don't. And last week was such an anomaly. I know they kicked the crap out of the Packers, but they had zero turnovers, zero penalties, which was strange. Not a single penalty called against them. And then Brady wasn't sacked once,

which was 10 days after the Chicago Bears got to him on every play. So I think that game was on national TV. Everyone saw it. Rodgers gets knocked around. They're like, oh, this is the team. But they did not look good week one against the Saints. They didn't look good against the Bears. You can't give me two games where I'm like,

eh, I don't know if that's a playoff team and tell me they're the best team in the league. When they're clicking like that and Gronk is out there and everyone's healthy, yeah, they've got the potential, but I'm not picking them over some of the teams in the league right now. No, I don't think they're the number one team. I think it's weird that we don't have

the runaway favorite yet. This is pretty late. We're heading toward Halloween almost. And I don't think we're going to have a favorite after week seven either. Usually we have that one team where we're like, oh yeah, that team. Or, oh, I didn't expect that team to be such a juggernaut.

Every single team you look at and you're like, I like that. Not sure I like that. Like that before that guy got hurt. Like that before that guy got COVID. That guy got COVID. Or that's a weird loss, right? They've got a weird loss on the record. Like there's a guy got hurt. Like that before that guy got COVID. That guy got COVID. Or that's a weird loss, right? They've got a weird loss on the record.

There's a few of those. I look at the Chiefs losing to the Raiders. Everything would be great with the Chiefs. That they could show that they could win with a power run game this week. And they could do it with injuries. The Raiders game is really weird to me. The Raiders were a stronger, tougher team. And then beat them in their building.

I can't look at the Chiefs and be like, oh, they're invincible. When you lose at home to Derek Carr. And then you have the Raiders. Awesome win. Bye week. Come out of the bye week, trip around their left tackle, gets COVID. It's probable he was around the other offensive lineman. There's like a five-day window. So now their offensive line really doesn't get to practice for a couple of days before this game. And as we've seen over and over again, it turns out practice might matter. Sorry, Allen Iverson. But so you have all these variables. So like I'm trying to make picks on Thursday.

I'd kind of like the Raiders in that game. Now that is like the all time stay away. You just have no idea what those next two days are going to be like. Yeah. And look, they thought they were playing this big Sunday night game against the Buccaneers. And now it's no way that's going to be played earlier. There's going to be, but wait, there's a variable, there's an asterisk. We now can possibly move you to Monday to Tuesday. Like that's the thing. It's this moving target of when are we playing? Where are we playing?

What time should we get on the plane? What time do we have to worry about going to practice? And you said it yourself, like the Titans, they missed the whole week and they galvanize around it. And it's us against the world and F everybody. We were going to go and take on the bills. And then we're going to kick ass the next weekend. The Patriots, they looked rusty and they didn't practice. They didn't look good. Like that's because they didn't practice. Cam Newton had one live practice in two weeks. That's what happens. Cam was terrible. Bad. At the same time, you can't get mad at it because it's like, this is professional football.

Playing quarterback is the hardest job in any sport other than race car driving. You kind of want to get behind the car and do some laps every once in a while before you get in the track. I came on the Sunday Fox show last week, and I'm like, look, he only really missed one practice because they were all on zoom. And if you look at it that way, he was virtual with them

and he missed only one live practice was last Saturday. He took the one reps on Thursday and Saturday in truth. I should've looked at it the other way. He's only had two practices in three weeks. Like that was the real truth of it. And you actually need to play football to be good at football. It's hard to just roll out of bed after a Zoom and go play football against a team that's been preparing for two weeks. Is there any team that you see ready to make a real move?

A team that by week nine will be going, oh, should have known. Or week 10, should have known. They were the signs. Yeah, the signs are pointing to the Ravens as like a team that's loading up right now for that. And it's, they went and they got Yannick Ngakwe.

They're trying to address things. Like I like an aggressor at this point in the season, a team that says, okay, what do we have? What are we missing? Because obviously they're not what they were last year. And yet they're still five and one, but they're not sitting comfortably. So I think the Ravens see what the Steelers are doing.

The Ravens see what they have to deal with, with the Titans eventually. They know the Chiefs have their number. And I think the Ravens were very aggressive. And that's a young team still, but they're really well coached. And I think they have the bye week now. I could see the Ravens hitting it into high gear,

just like they did last year after their bye week. They have a really weird schedule where they have week eight, Pittsburgh, at Indy at New New England home Tennessee at Pittsburgh it's like whoa that's a gauntlet then they go Dallas at Cleveland Jacksonville Giants at Bengals so the last five weeks are basically it would be shocking if they lost any of those five games and they have a chance like let's say they beat Tennessee in week 11, that little revenge game for them, where they could come out of that on a six-game, seven-game, eight-game winning streak. I'm with you. I thought the same thing. And I think, didn't seem like Lamar was 100% healthy. The Chiefs game was just a haymaker for them. And I think it threw us off the scent. But I think that's a good pick. They also haven't been even close to what they can be. And that's what always, I like to see that team

that's still winning and stacking Ws, but yet you know they're better than they are. And Earl Thomas made all this news in the off season or the week before the season. They cut Earl Thomas. They've got a really good defense. And they just added Ikin Gakwe, who's had some issues with teams before, but it's mostly about salary,

not personality. And then he's with Calais Campbell, who was like his big brother when they were in Jacksonville together. So I, and Gagwe was really good for the Vikings. It was a weird deal that he was there for like five weeks, but in a terrible season for Minnesota and Gagwe might've been their best player. He was all over the field. Every time you watch that team, I think the Ravens could be gearing up right now. And I'm curious to see if this makes them a little tougher and a little bigger upfront, because those are the teams that give them

problems, especially Tennessee and especially Kansas city. Tough one for Minnesota, right? They trade the second and the conditional fifth and six weeks later, they get a third and a conditional fifth. It's like, whoops. Basically they just give away 50 draft picks and goodbye. Plus the Baltimore, their second rounder will be in the top 10 of the second round and Baltimore's will be in the bottom five of the third round. So it's really like a 45 pick swing potentially or 50 pick swing. What the Ravens always do,

and this is like way in the weeds, but the Ravens are like one of those teams that just picks up compensatory picks all the time. So if and when Matthew Judon, who's one of their past rushers, signed somewhere else this next offseason, the Ravens know they're getting another third round pick because he'll be signing for a huge amount of money.

If he doesn't re-sign with them, they'll get that pick back. This is what the Ravens do and Patriots do it, they think, a couple years down the line as opposed to a lot of these teams that continually end up 7-9 because they're going all in for this season. And then when it doesn't work out, they're left with no picks and you're in what Houston's sitting in right now, which is just purgatory.

I wish the Patriots just traded their picks every year, overtaking them. I would much rather trade them for proven guys versus the freaking gauntlet we're in now with tight ends and receivers. And Kyle Duggar is like the only draft pick I've really liked from the last two years. And they've had like a lot of picks.

The Nikhil Harry pick is going to be one of those that you guys just lose sleep. And he might end up being good. draft pick I really liked from the last two years. They've had like a lot of picks. The, the Nikhil Harry pick is going to be one of those that you guys sleep and he might end up being good, but now that's like, if it's even deeper, like we know AJ Brown and we know Metcalf, but like when you see Fulgham on the Eagles, a sixth round pick from the lions,

that same draft class just rolls right onto the field out of old dominion and is maybe the best player on the team. And you're like Fulgham should have taken Fulgham over to kill harry that's another receiver like it's a crazy receiver draft and gosh to kill harry like at all the physical skills he looks the part and you just want it to happen just hasn't clicked yet he can't get open i know it's a problem you kind of have to get open as a wide receiver i mean damir bird is is probably been the one receiver they've had that actually seems like he's open most of the time.

Other than that, Edelman is on his last legs, it looks like, and they have no tight end that can do anything. No, I thought that Ossie Ossie was going to be the guy. Oh, my God.

When there was a big time for Isaiah Zuber to step up. Yeah, you were texting me about Zuber. Still might happen. Could happen. You're like, who's Zuber? And J.J. Johnson or whatever on your podcast. J.J. Taylor. And I texted you. I was listening to your podcast. I'm like,

oh, Zuber. I like Zuber. Zuber has a nice little thing going. No, he hasn't done much since. There's some buzz for Zuber. There's buzz. There's super buzz. What's your Le'Veon Bell and Kansas City prediction? Look, I don't think you're getting anything close to what you got, but he'll play a role and Andy Reid will use them and everyone will say, Oh, look at the dumb jets.

Look what they couldn't figure out. Andy Reid makes it work. It's because there's a thousand different playmakers on that offense. And if you plug anybody back there, they're going to be good and they will use him. Like I know they're going to use him in the red zone. I know that they're very confident in his past protection. I spoke to sources. I hate saying that sources, but I spoke to guys who work in Kansas city and they're like, he's really good in pass protection. And Clyde Edwards, a layer is great, but it's week seven. And he's on pace for some crazy amount of carries and touches. Like, this is what we need to do. We need to spread it out a little bit and kind of pace him a little bit because we're going to want him late. So Le'Veon Bell, will he make an impact on your fantasy team? No. But will he make an impact?

I mean, one of those guys, they're like, all right, there he is. Five catches, you know, 35 yards. And he had six carries and he scored a touchdown. So he'll play a role. He'll be out there. He'll be better than what Sean McCoy was last year for them. And he did some things when they needed him late in December too. Yeah.

There's a variable with this now where if he's the running back, but then they just use him as a receiver, which was when he was always scary. And he was like, almost like Camara comes off. And now you've got like, Oh, Kelsey Hill, Hardman's just going to run a straight line for 50 yards. Watkins coming over the middle with Kelsey and just, what do I do? How do I stop all of these things at the same time? And knowing what they did last week, which was almost by design, I get so funny. You think this is just media topic. Like it was a message to the rest of the league. They're like, all right, we're going to run the ball 35 times for 200 yards on the bills defense in their building in the rain, because we don't like what we, the taste we left

in everyone's mouth last week against the Raiders where we could be bullied around. And they did it with, which is so frustrating for teams that are always like, oh, our guys are injured and we have all these injuries. They had three backup offensive linemen in on third and whatever it was. Mahomes hits Byron Pringle on the big play. It's not always got to be Hill and Hardman and Kelsey. They've got so many players and they are so deep at every position. And they like showcasing that.

They like showing the rest of the league like, look, we're going to run behind got so many players and they are so deep at every position and they like showcasing that they like showing the rest of the league. Like, look, we're going to run behind Daniel Kilgore and Andrew Wiley. And that's how we're going to win this game. And guess what? You have to stop us. It's, it's cool. And they flex like that because it shows that they can do more than just be a one dimensional team. And then when you cover everyone, my homes is like, cool, I'm going to run for eight yards. I'll see you guys later. He guys later. Do you have an NFC East prediction before we do million-dollar picks? Let me throw a couple things at you. Seven and a half wins for the division champ.

You over or under? Over. Over? They all have to play each other. They all have to play each other. So, like, to me, it's not one of these where they cannibalize. Like, the Eagles were doing this on a Thursday afternoon. They played Thursday night.

But even if they lose to the Giants, they get back Ertz and Goddard and Miles Sanders and Deshaun Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey and three offensive, like they get everyone back just after the bye week, which is in two weeks. So I can't see them not being able to find four or five wins in the NFC East,

especially with all those guys coming back and how bad the rest of the division is. So I would say over in the Eagles are really the team I'd be looking at. What are the odds on that? Just out of curiosity. I don't know. Might have to, might have to look at that. Think about it. They're playing right now. They're in, they're competitive in games with Boston Scott and Richard Rogers and Fulgham and John Hightower. I'm not just listing names to showcase that I, you know, to show off that I know their depth chart. Those are their players. Like those are the guys that are rolling out tonight against the Giants.

John Hightower out of Boise state is their number two wide receiver. Well, you got to think when Jeffrey and Rager and all these guys come back, which they will, they're going to be a better team and Wentz is going to be better for it. Well, and from what we've seen from the Cowboys who lost me money on Monday, we'll talk about that in a second. They're horrible and horribly coached. And for some reason, I went into that game thinking Dalton's going to be 85% as good as Dak because he's been here. He's

done this before. He was 85% as good as Dak on a fractured ankle. He was so bad. They couldn't block for him. They kind of quit after once they fell behind by 21. And I think Zeke's looked just flat out terrible. And I don't know.

He had COVID, right? He did. I think there's some, there really might be something here to, if I had COVID, I'm messed up athletically for a couple months here. I think we have to look at that. I'm not saying it's for every person, but I do think he doesn't look like the same guy. He certainly doesn't look like the Zeke Elliott of old,

and he certainly doesn't look like the Zeke Elliott that they're paying $16 million a year for. It's like the red flags were there. And I say this not to pick on Mike McCarthy, who I like, that he was fired after losing to Steve Wilkes and Josh Rosen as the Packers coach up in Arizona. He took a year off. He was in his house in Green Bay and he was hanging out with Jim Haslett and the PFF guys and doing analytics. And he taught himself analytics and he really interviewed well with Jerry, but Jerry didn't do a full search here.

Jerry interviewed a couple of candidates. I think Marvin Lewis and then Mike McCarthy. And then it was announced Mike McCarthy's echoed. And again, it's hindsight because we all celebrated it and not celebrate, but everyone was, no one was like, wait,

what? But they didn't interview Matt rule. Who's down the road at Baylor. They didn't interview, you know, Kevin Stefanski, who was doing some really good things up in Minnesota. They didn't interview the enemy. They didn't interview Kevin Stefanski, who was doing some really good things up in Minnesota. They didn't interview these guys. So Jerry Jones, and the story was at the press conference that they had a couple of cocktails after and that he slept over Jerry's house.

Oh, God. It just seems like it was a fun story, right? It was great. And they all got along and it made sense. And Mike is a football guy through and through. And Jason Garrett might've been more of a Ivy League academic type. And this was a total change of that. But here we are on Monday night and they're getting embarrassed. 38-10, like Mike Nolan is the defensive coordinator.

So that's the bigger issue. Because he was bad at that job before. And we have no real evidence that he's good at anything. And they did a new scheme this year. So you've got this COVID situation where no one's allowed to practice in person. They lose a lot of players, Byron Jones and a couple others that are very important to that defense. And they're building a new defense over Zoom with a new defensive coordinator. These are red flags to me, and yet I didn't see any of

them coming. And then the draft pick, I think 15 years from now, CeeDee Lamb could be one of the best players of his generation. Who knows? But that wasn't the need, right? Like they had Gallup and Amari Cooper and the need was a pass rusher. And there were a lot of them left in the draft. Or you could even say defensive back

where there were a lot. So there were red flags going into this whole deal. Add in the Zeke had COVID add in dac had a contract issue add in that they don't have many defensive backs that we can name off our top linebackers we're all healthy yeah we're linebackers and that's not a good football team well they're bad i'm out i'm just completely out of it's fair to be out and i'll make matters worse and like you see when the cardinals are celebrating on the sideline and kingsbury is shoulder bumping and they're all happy for Kyler. Then they go over to Dallas and what are they? They're down. I think they were down 31 or 28 to three and

they kicked the field goal and they missed. It was a 58 yarder. And you're like, that doesn't seem like the same deal. Like it doesn't seem like the right kind of vibe. Yeah, it was bad. All right. We're going to do a million dollar picks, taking a quick break, coming back and we'll do it. All right. We're going to do Million Dollar Picks. Taking a quick break. Coming back. And we'll do it. All right. As always, for Million Dollar Picks,

we use the lines from FanDuel Sportsbook. Remember, FanDuel, if you go there to their sportsbook, they will refund the first same game

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plus 250, plus 220, plus 275, something there. I would recommend that one. If you like that pick, go ahead and bet it. You'll get $10 back if we don't win. You can do it all season long. Fando, the only sportsbook app where you can play same game parlay.

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Max refund $10. Terms apply. Gambling problem, 800-GAMBLER. West Virginia, 1800-GAMBLER.net. Indiana, 800-NMITHIC. Colorado, 800-522-4700. Iowa, 1-800-BETS-OFF. All right. So before we do million dollar picks, I'm going to let you make the ruling here. So last week I'm doing my picks and I always talk about all the games and then I circle back and I put the money figures down for each one. So I had four games I was going to bet 300K on

plus like two tiny parlays. I did the three games. I had the Niners game down lower my notes under the parlays. And I just forgot to say the Niners game. Do I get to count that or not? Because I didn't technically bet a million. The reason, if anyone doesn't believe me, not that anyone cares, but I always bet at least a million dollars. I didn't even bet a million dollars last week because... So there was a space. There was a space.

I was going to do the four 300K picks and then the parlays and then the Niners win. And I don't know. I don't know what to do the four 300K picks and then the parlays and then the Niners win. And I don't know. I don't know what to do. I just forgot to say it. Did you mention the Niners earlier? I had a whole case. I was like, mark that down the same way I did it without.

And I just forgot to actually say it when I did the picks. Count it. Thank you. That's how I feel. Count it. Kyle, we're counting it. So I'm down 100K last week. 396 for the season.

There's a lot of games I like this week. I'm going to concentrate on four that I really, really like, unless you talk me out. Two maybes and a long shot parlay that I also like. First one, Panthers-Saints. I had the Panthers last week. They hurt my feelings a little bit.

Joe House was making the case the Bears defense was really good. Be careful of that defense. They were really good. Panthers also inside the 10 twice, end up with six points. Our guy Joey Sly misses a long field goal that he usually makes, comes down with COVID almost immediately after. It was one of those games that just kind of nothing went right for them, and they still hung around, hung around.

It was the Bears were better. It didn't scare me on the Panthers long-term. Now you have the Saints. I don't feel like the Saints have looked good once this season. They've had some wins. They're 3-2. They came back valiantly against the Chargers, but that didn't look good. Yeah, even the Bucs week one.

I didn't leave that week one Bucs game going, man, the Saints, look out. It was more like, wow, that was a weird disjointed game. They've trailed in every single game this year. You could make a case they could have a four-game losing streak right now with two or three plays in a couple games. Panthers are 3-3. They've lost to Vegas, Tampa, and Chicago,

uh, DVO, a new Orleans, the seventh Carolina 16th. I think the Panthers have a really good coach. I don't see them rolling over two weeks in a row. And the thing I really liked, there's seven and a half point underdogs against the saints.

To me, this feels like saints by three and a half. If I was just doing my internal power rankings in my head, I'm like, are the Saints more than four points better than the Panthers from what we've seen? So you watch that Panthers-Bears game clearly. I did too. Think about the things that they did. They missed the field goal.

They dropped an easy interception. They dropped a touchdown. They dropped the fourth and two to DJ Moore, which they should have had. Dropped it. And he had it. Yeah, that was it. That's it. They, Chicago converted a crazy third and 10 into double coverage for a touchdown.

Falls through that wild pass that was completed. And they did all that. And they lost by a score to a five and one team. I feel pretty good about Panthers. You left out Santos made a 55 yard field goal. What were the odds of that happening? Of course. And they're a young team.

So if you're a young Panthers team and you know that you had all those chances and you didn't against a 5-1 team, why shouldn't you feel confident going into this one? I also, the Michael Thomas situation is weird. Now it was an ankle. Then he punched his teammate in the face at practice. They docked him a game. They didn't suspend him.

They just said, you're not going to be active. So there's not, you know, some crazy NFL PA deal. And now this week, the story is hamstring. And then wasn't at practice on Thursday. They paid him his big money. He's already been paid. He's already guaranteed all that money. He hasn't played since week one, right?

Like the Michael Thomas deal is strange. That comes off an off season where players were crying on Instagram and Twitter about how disappointed they were with Drew Brees. I don't feel good about the Saints right now. I don't feel good about the Saints. And yet everything I feel about the Panthers is on the up and up. And if you haven't watched the Panthers, like they're so young, they're fun. Their defense has a guy, Jeremy Chin at a Southern Illinois who plays safety and just flies all over the field.

He looks like, you know, everything that Isaiah Simmons was supposed to be. And they're going to be motivated. This is Teddy Bridgewater going up against, you know, his former coaching team. So I like the Panthers. I don't know if they win this game, but I agree with you.

That seems like a very large margin that we're granting the Saints going into this one. Plus, Panthers 3-3, and again, the losses are Vegas, Tampa, Chicago. I'm okay with those losses because I think they're right in that, whatever your top five is. I think they're in the next category, which is pretty swollen right now. Mark that one down. Matt Rule's a good coach. Have you met him?

You'd love this guy. Well, he's the great Jets fork in the road guy, right? Because they would have hired him. And they're like, no, no, you got to have Greg Williams. He's like, cool, I'm out. He's like, I'm good. And you know who he asked for the story goes, is that he asked Parcells, what do you think?

They want to pair me with Greg Williams. And Parcells said, I don't know Greg Williams or not, but I wouldn't let them pick your coordinator. I would wait a year. So then he waits a year and goes and wins. But he's from Manhattan. He's from Murray Hill. He grew up in the 30s in Manhattan, where football's not exactly...

It's a basketball town. And then fell in love with football, went to Penn State, and now has just revitalized every program. He is a cool dude. When you talk to him, it feels like you're talking to a church pastor. It's a sermon, but it gets you going, but it's not over the top. And the players are all buying in on a young team. So Rule's a cool guy and a good coach.

And I wouldn't be surprised if they came out just fired up this week. And one other thing with that, you have garbage time TD potentially. And if they're down 14 with five minutes left, it's not like the Saints are like completely locked down and Teddy, Teddy two gloves can get a little way one. So we're going to mark that down. So for the future, when I say mark that down, if I,

if I forgot to actually put that in my final picks, that's Kyle's fault. That's not my fault. I'm old. I forget stuff. Blame Kyle, the producer, Kyle,

it's all your fault. Browns Bengals is the next one. Browns minus three and a half favorites, minus one 80 money line. And here's the question with the Browns. Because I had Pittsburgh last week. Terrible matchup for the Browns for a variety of reasons. One is like they need to run the ball to succeed.

The Steelers are like, cool. We love stopping the run. Please try. Baker's injured. Baker's probably not good. Are the Browns the good-bad team is my question. Because if you're operating under the premise, this is actually our good-bad team, that when they're playing a bad team, they can run the ball. They can get a lead. Suddenly,

Baker's up 10. We can do a little play action. You get Odell on the reverse. You have all these things. And then, you know, I'm looking at the Bengals. Probably no Joe Mixon. 29th in DVOA, bottom four. Burrow, who I love. And I've watched a lot of Bengals just because I like Burrow.

He's under attack the whole game. They can't block for him at all. They're only 6.6 yards per pass. They've allowed 24 sacks, 36% on third down. The Browns are 25th in DVOA, not much better, but they got demolished by Baltimore and Pittsburgh. So that's a little bit off. My thinking is that this is actually a game

the Browns win convincingly and pull everybody back to trust them again when they shouldn't. I think the Browns are that rollercoaster good-bad team. What do you think of that thesis? Yeah, every year there's a team that goes 10-6 and doesn't beat a single playoff team and then goes into the playoffs and you're like, all right, they were 10-6, but then you look and you're like,

oh, this is going to be... I can't see them losing this game, even as bad as Baker looked last week, even as injured as he might've been with his ribs. Um, I Cincinnati is a really, really young team and they're fun to watch and they've got some players and they'll be good, but I can't see them going up against miles Garrett and some of those defensive players up front. And especially with that offensive line from Cleveland and what Cincinnati is missing. I, I liked that pick. And I think that'll be the pattern for the Browns. And every time they suck you in, you'll see the 38-10 loss or whatever.

I mean, that was 24-0 against the Steelers before halftime, and they're doing reverse plays to Claypool and stuff. That was all before the half, and they didn't have anything in the second half. And it was really let down, and everyone kind of flew off that bandwagon, but this is the kind of game they'll win. Yeah, and the other thing with the Bengals, so they had this huge lead against the Colts last week.

I really like them. I had them in long shot probably the other week. But Mixon goes out and now they can't run the ball at all. So they can't protect the lead. The Colts start dialing up the pressure.

And then on the flip side, you have the fossil Phil Rivers is carving them up. And they have no pass rush on him. It just feels like a nice spot. I might buy the extra half point and bring this down to minus three. So it'd be a minus 130 odds,

but just not to give Joey Covers even a chance to cover yet another game. He's covered every game this year. He had a push on the first one. Is that right? That's crazy. He's fun to root for. I know you were a fan before this season because he doesn't bleed. He's a vampire. He has no emotion.

He's a vampire. We're marking that one down. Next one, Steelers. Speaking of, third in DVOA right now. They played great last week. They have a lot of weapons offensively. They're really good

at stopping the run. They lost Bush, though, which, you know, they have, I don't know, four really, really elite defensive players. He was one.

They lose him. Here's my thing with Tennessee. They've given up 30-plus points three times. They're giving up 400 yards a game. And we talked to Howie Long earlier on the pod

and he was saying how Seattle's all offense, no defense. And my thing is like, well, that's kind of Tennessee too, right? Like what about if their defense has impressed any of us so far? Pittsburgh is at Tennessee,

at Baltimore next to you. I don't see them going 0-2. I think they win this one. They lose Baltimore. They're getting a point and a half you. I don't see them going 0-2. I think they win this one. They lose Baltimore. They're getting a point and a half, which I don't fully understand. The other thing with Tennessee, 22nd defensive DVOA, they're plus six turnover differential,

which as we close game luck, turnover luck every year, it swings like three or four of these. They had pretty lucky week one to pull that Monday night game out with all the Gus Kowski drama. Last week, Romeo Cornell just hands it to him. And why do you think the Steelers are not favored in this game?

Because of what Tennessee's been doing with Derrick Henry. He's the ultimate X factor. And the fact is that you think you can stop Henry. Like he's the ultimate X factor. And the fact is that you think you can stop Henry. And even if you do, Tannehill's really good. They put up some crazy number where they were the first team in a long time for a running back to have 200 yards in a game and a quarterback, 300 and a receiver, a hundred. They're really good. Like they're really good. They lose Taylor LeJuan, which I think is not being discussed as much about other guys. Cause you don't play them in fantasy, but Taylor LeJuan might be the best tackle in the

sport. He's out for the rest of the season with an acl forgot to mention that good call but you know it's funny because we talked about kansas city and all the different weapons and in a weird way tennessee like you watch that game jeremy mcnichols late was gashing the texans defense yeah 10 yards 20 furxerkser, the tight end from Jersey. Terrible name. Terrible name, great player. And then they got guys like Jonu Smith and like, they just have guys. And it's one of these things where if you're a Jets fan or you're a fan of one of these teams that's struggling,

you're like, where's the talent on our roster? You watch Tennessee, you get frustrated because they just have, Adam Humphreys is going to come out there. And then there's another guy and another guy, another guy, and A.J. Brown's his number one receiver. Like, they're good. And they're really well coached.

Everyone made a lot of news about Vrabel with the clock management stuff. How about just the fact that they ran the wildcat on third and goal and over like a lot of coaches wouldn't do it. And Arthur Smith, the offensive coordinator does do it. I think the Titans win this game. I honestly, wow.

So you don't like this one. All right. That's helpful. I do. And I think the middle linebacker. I honestly think the Titans win this game. Wow, so you don't like this one. All right. That's helpful. I do. And I think the middle linebacker being out is a big deal for Pittsburgh. That guy does a lot of stuff that no one knows. And their guy who's playing has played, I think, a couple games before and replacing him. So I'm going to go Titans on that one.

That's my pick, but it's not my million dollars. I forgot one extra case against the Titans. So if they win this game, Cincinnati, they're at Cincinnati, home Chicago, home Indy, at Baltimore. You could argue they might be 9-0 heading into that Baltimore game. Potentially.

So that seems inconceivable to me. No, probably not. They'll probably lose one of those, although they've got Baltimore's number. What I always think about with Tennessee is like, like all right they're the titans they're gonna end up nine and seven ten and six but like they kind of had that playoff run last year where it's like they all were on that team yeah so tannahill has like the skins on the wall and then henry's done it like they're not going to be scared of a big moment which is such a huge thing in these nfl games when you suddenly get al michaels and chris collinsworth on the call of a big moment, which is such a huge thing in these NFL games. When you suddenly get Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth on the call in a

big game. And you're like, wait, what's going on? And are we ready for this? Like they've done it. They've done it twice. They beat the Patriots and the Ravens in their building last year.

Do you read anything into, they play a Tuesday night, then they play Sunday. And now they're playing a week later. That's usually when they're two games are bunched together like that. They usually try to give the team a bye week after or before or something. That's pretty tough. It is overtime to the opponent. And when the second, it's not like they're not playing Jacksonville, they're playing the Steelers. It's not ideal. But then again, the NFL has bent over backwards

to kind of make this work. And the Titans basically ruined the Steelers by week already. So I don't think they have any reason to complain. It's got to go up and play. All right. Next one is bears plus six against the Rams. The Rams swept the NFC East. Congrats to them. They blew it last week. Bears fifth in DVOA defensively. I really liked how their defense looked last week. I thought, you know, as, as we discussed earlier, the Panthers screwed up a couple times and did some weird things. But at the same time, I thought they just can push the offensive line backwards.

And I always look for that when I'm watching the games, especially on my nice big TV and HD. Now you can really see stuff. And there's just certain teams that the line goes backwards. And they're one of those teams that does that. Plus six just seems high. So I'm looking at this just from a pure value standpoint. I would have thought this was going to be,

I think I picked Rams two and a half when we did guest lines. I was off by over a field goal. And I don't, I don't, Here's what I keep coming back to. You put the Rams in a tease, right? You tease them down to even. You're like, that's cool. The Bears aren't good. And then that first quarter,

Goff gets hit. And you just... They do that thing where they show the quarterback in the close-up. He's on the TV. And he's making the Jared Goff face. And you're just like, what did I just do?

Why did I put money on this guy? I don't like him against the Bears' defense. Single-handedly, that makes me want to take the plus six. What do you think? Foles also has a history here. Foles came in for an injured wince that Super Bowl year in LA and led them to victory. And then last year on a Sunday night,

everyone was picking the Rams. Foles comes in there, uh, or two years ago, I'm sorry, with the Eagles when they had the year after Superbowl and he beats them like, and he was a former Ram,

right? Foles. We talk about burrow, how he's got just, you know, no emotion, but like Foles, Foles does not waver.

And I know it's a roller coaster and you're going to get those, those, those games where he lays an egg and you're like, what the hell happened? I just, Foles in not waver. And I know it's a roller coaster and you're going to get those games where he lays an egg and you're like, what the hell happened? Foles in a big spot. I don't know if I could ever bet against Foles in a big spot. I know you and McVay, you guys met on Friendster. I know the whole history. I'm kidding.

That's my guy. But that is your guy. So I know it hurts to bet against him. But at least we could agree this line is three points too high high. I think it seems high. I'll say this. And again, I don't know if the locals in LA would pick this up this week. I talked to Sean every week this week that loss pissed him off Sunday night. He didn't like the way the team came out. He didn't like the way they looked on national TV. He never likes losing to his buddy, Kyle Shanahan. And I say buddy in quotes.

They worked together for years in Washington. And trust me, there's a healthy rivalry there. The Rams are in a different place this week than they were when they lost to the Bills, where they were like, all right, look, we were down 29 points. We came all the way back. It was on the road this week, that one pissed them off. There's a fire being lit that building this week.

Feels like a defensive struggle. I just don't trust Goff. I'm marking that one down. Last one's Pats Niners. Pats minus two and a half. Niners kitchen sink game for them and a half. Niners, kitchen sink game for them last week. They really needed it. They

got the lead early, which was super important for them with Jimmy G. Able to do all their stuff. They broke out all the weapons. The Rams played like crap. Now the Pats coming off a terrible game. At least they practiced for a week.

They lose this game, they're in real trouble in the AFC. I would say this is a must-win game for the New England Patriots. Miami's ahead of them in the standings right now. Miami just played the two-a-card. So this feels like a must-win, don't count out Belichick, don't count out the system. The way it doesn't play out that way is if they just suck

and this is the game we realize that either way, this is a fork in the road. We will have an opinion about this Patriots team for real after this game. What do you think happens? Last year before the playoff came to the Titans,

you and I were on your podcast and you were like, and I said, I just don't think it can end this way. Like it doesn't end to the Tennessee Titans in Foxborough. Yeah. And you were like, and you,

your message to me was like, I've seen it with, with the Celtic. Like sometimes it just, it just isn't, it just, that's just how it is. Like there's no poetic ending to it.

It ends with Logan Ryan pick six on a Saturday night. And that's Brady's last game. And I'm not saying it's the end of the Patriots, but like, there's a chance that the Niners come in and Kittle kicks the crap out of them. And that defense gets to Cam Newton and he's getting knocked around

like the Broncos got knocked around. There's a chance that that happens again. And I'll say this, San Francisco's dealt with so many injuries that there's really no excuse for New England if they lose this one. San Francisco's been riddled with injuries worse than any team in the league, maybe. If they can come in and figure it out, I have a hard time sympathizing or empathizing with what the Patriots are going

through because every team is dealing with something. I think it's a nice matchup for the Pats in this respect. Well, first of all, no forward and no Bosa. So it's just not going to be the same pass rush. It's just not. And then Mostert getting hurt in the second half of a game they were running away with really helps the Patriots because that guy's terrifying. I think he's the best running back versus what the perception of him is in the league. Anytime he has the ball going 45 degrees, I feel like he's going to turn the corner and he's just gone. He did. And the thing with Mostert,

and I know those guys will, and I know him will, he can't stay healthy. He literally cannot stay healthy. And that's the most frustrating thing for any fan of every, like he cannot stay healthy. So it's like when you get those big leads, you're like, just put Mostert on ice.

Don't even put him out there because this is what happens now. Who is it going to be? McKinnon, Jermichael Hasty. Like, I don't even know who they're going to be, but that's kind of the scary thing with the Niners. He's such a good play caller, Kyle Shanahan, that you can kind of plug and play with them. And Jeff Wilson Jr. will be the one that kills you this week. Or, you know, it's, if it's not Brandon Ayuk, it's going to be Debo or someone else like that's another team where the system is really good and they find a way to get guys to step it up and i will give you credit you had matthew berry on i guess way back when

before the season and you were talking most of it up and like he wasn't even entertaining the most you're like no no most are most and he's like yeah sure but let's talk about someone else like yeah most are and you're well he can't stay in the field um i'm gonna tentatively mark that one down it seems like you like the niners in that one though i like the niners but i would stay away i did those kind of games like with Belichick on the rock. How many million games have we had? And then he proves you wrong. It's just that the Niners

and the Patriots, it's not a good matchup for the Patriots. Okay. Two maybe games I'm looking at. Washington plus one against the Cowboys. This would be purely a Washington has a pretty good defense. And McLaurin will make one play.

Gibson maybe makes one. The deer of everything Cowboys, right? If this happens, this is the bottom. One thing I noticed, so they're minus 12 turnovers right now. Yeah. So I was like, oh, I wonder what the record is. So I only went back six years. But the 2018 Niners

were minus 25 turnover differential and the Browns in 2017 were minus 28 those are the two worst the Cowboys are on pace to crush the 30 mark

and they've been really bad turnovers too like those Zeke fumbles are like just so sloppy terrible interceptions from Dalton where he was throwing a double cover. Really bad turnovers.

And there's so many stats. They've had the worst defensive start since the team, since the 1950 Baltimore Colts. Wow. 1950? That's the amount of points they've given up. It's so bad. I have a friend who's a Washington fan,

and he's texting me furiously, furiously, at the end of that Giants game that not a lot of people were watching outside of Washington. He's like this Rivera. I understand you've got this riverboat mentality and you're such a gambler. Like why would you go for two when they can't move the ball on you? You're a defensive team to send the ball to overtime giants. There's already talk in Washington amongst those fans

that like, all right, Ron, like, I, we love you as a guy. We get it. But like, come on, this is a defensive team. What are we doing? Like go to overtime. So I'm fascinated to see what version of both these teams we had. Cause Rivera is truly one of the best guys in the league, but there is already frustration from Washington fans about, all right, at some point we've got this situation at quarterback where we didn't draft to a, because we liked Haskins. Like, well, what the heck is going on here? And then also this deal with the late in the game clock management and decision to go for two because you're the riverboat.

Well, I don't know. In that situation, maybe we should have kicked the extra ball. You can't go in a OT with Danny dimes. Like you're just digging a grave. Um, all right. So I'm going to mark that one down. Washington's plus one in that game. And it's in Dallas, and I think there will be fans there. So there is some depressing boot potential.

Next one is Cardinals-Seahawks. Just quickly. Night game. Yeah, now it's the night game. Cardinals are plus three and a half. They're 10th in DVOA somehow. There's cheap TD potential here with the plus three and a half. We know Seattle can't stop anybody.

We know Seattle can't probably really run the ball. And Seattle's just been in a lot of close games. There's some Antonio Brown stuff lingering now. So here, I don't know what to take away from that Monday game. We just did this quickly. But Arizona's defense was flying around in that game. In a way that I've watched a lot of them.

Cause I've just had them in bets, but it seems like the last two weeks they've discovered a little bit of a speed identity on defense, which I think they're going to need against the Seahawks. Yeah. The jets game. You're like, all right,

whatever. But then to do that against the Cowboys. And I mean, you watched a game Kyler completed nine passes was off and yet they couldn't be stopped. Like that's the scary thing. They're just scratching the surface, like you watched the game. Kyler completed nine passes, was off, and yet they couldn't be stopped. Like, that's the scary thing. They're just scratching the surface. Like, just scratching the surface. And they've got weapons, too.

I don't know, though. Seattle off a bye. Well, betting against Russell is the case. Yeah, dude. Especially after he's been on my podcast. Yeah, he's a friend of the pod now. But I would say this. Last year, Brett Hundley and the Cardinals randomly went into Seattle

and beat the Seahawks in Seattle in a must-win for Seattle. I don't know who that helped, but it was just a bizarre game when Kyler was out. There's another thing I liked about it, though. I like these division matchups, right? Weird shit always happens. They know each other. They're used to each other. I'm going to mark that one down for a tiny one.

Then the last one. Lions plus two against the Falcons. This is just a pure the Falcons. They got the game they needed. They have an atrocious defense. Just atrocious. Raheem got his win.

They proved whatever point they're trying to prove. Now the Lions, who I'm not sure if you would say they're potentially decent or whatever, but at least they can throw the ball against the right teams. So are they just a slightly better version of Atlanta? Yeah, and every win is a must-win for Matt Patricia right now.

This feels like there's an urgency, and as much as players drag him on the way out, that team, I know those guys, they all seem to like him this year and they had a really cool off season where they all came together and you know they're one in three last week they're playing the jaguars off a bye everyone's like these are two crap teams they might have had the most decisive win out of anybody last week so i would think that patricia can find a way and suddenly they're three and three out of this they're in the thick of things they're right where they want to be. And who knows? You and I both, I think, were the only two people who were big on the Lions this summer.

I had money on them. I bet on them to win the division. That sucked. I know. I've got them going to the playoffs and everyone laughs at me. But I mean, all right, this is it. This is the moment. You got to beat Atlanta.

You can't lose there. All right. Long shot parlay of the week is easy to me. Plus 1148. Almost 12 to beat Atlanta. Can't lose there. All right. Long shot parlay of the week is easy to me. Plus 1148. Almost 12 to 1 odds. Panthers-Bears. Plus 290 Panthers. Plus 220 Bears if they both win.

Plus 1148. So I'm going to put something down on that. And we talked about both those games. All right. Here's what I'm going to do. Kyle, if I miss a game, yell in my ear. 300K Panthers plus

7.5 over the Saints. 390 to win 300K on the Browns minus 3 over the Bengals. I'm buying the half point. 300K on the Bears plus 6 over the Rams. And then I'm going to sprinkle a couple 100k-ers.

You talked me out of the Steelers. I might want to talk you out of Bears. I might want to talk you out of Bears. No, it's too late. The ship's in. It's too late. It's in. You talked me out of the Pats. You did not talk me out of Washington or the Cardinals or the Lions.

So we're going to put 100K on Washington plus one, 100K on Cardinals plus three and a half, 100K on Lions plus two, and then 30K on our long shot parlay plus 1148, Panthers plus 290, Bears plus 220.48. Panthers, plus 2.90. Bears, plus 2.20. Those are the million-dollar picks. So you're the most worried about the Bears. Yeah.

I did that McVay F the World mode, one of those deals. Possible. I don't know. We'll see. Monday Night Football. Who knows? You should be the most worried about the Steelers killing the Titans and then me sending you angry texts going,

I told you! I know. I told you. I told you! I don't want to lead you the wrong way. Too much faith in Ferkser. This was very helpful. It was good to see you. I love seeing you.

Good morning, football. Will do. That's it for the BS Podcast. Thanks to Howie Long. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Don't forget to listen to the Bacari Sellers podcast and the Press Box, both responding to the Thursday Night Debate.

And if you love the rewatchables, we have a new one coming on Monday. Man, it's a big one. I almost don't even want to spoil what it is, but trust me, it has been on the list. First here. Can't wait to do this. And that's all I'm telling you.

You'll find out on Sunday night. Sunday night. See you with Sal. I don't have.