The Bill Simmons Podcast - Best QB Arguments, Million-Dollar Picks and Malik Monk | With Benjamin Solak, Steven Ruiz, and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz to discuss Tua Tagovailoa's season, Steven's QB rankings, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, favorite Week-15 matchups, and more (2:36). The...n Bill talks with Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports about the large number of free agent QBs next season, some upcoming NFL matchups (including Falcons-Saints, Titans-Chargers, Jaguars-Cowboys), and more (25:56). Next, Bill gives out the Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 15 (45:39), before talking with Kings shooting guard Malik Monk about his basketball journey, his time at Kentucky, landing on the Kings after playing in Charlotte and Los Angeles, the wide open Western Conference, and more (1:25:33). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Malik Monk, Peter Schrager, Benjamin Solak, and Steven Ruiz Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, if you love music, you'll love 60 Songs That Explain the 90s. It is a podcast hosted by Rob Harvilla. Every week, he tackles a song from the 90s. This week, Ice Ice Baby from Vanilla Ice. What more do I need to say? 60 Songs That Explain the 90s on The Ringer Podcast Network. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gangs here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're
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Starting point is 00:01:16 So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me. I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey.
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Starting point is 00:01:51 Prime Monday Night Hockey. It's on Monday. It's on Prime. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed the Prestige TV podcast, not only did we break down the season finale of White Lotus on Monday, but we also interviewed the creator of the show, Mike White.
Starting point is 00:02:08 Joanna Robinson did that one. So you can find that. You can also find the recap of the season finale of Sex Lives of College Girls that Juliette Lippman and Jody Walker did. On TheRinger.com, you might remember me and House did the preliminary breakdown of my trade value list, which is going to run on the ringer.com at some point this month. But we ran our top hundred players, our ranking list that a bunch of ringer writers contributed to. I've already gotten a bunch of angry texts about it,
Starting point is 00:02:37 including from Nick's fans who can't believe that Julius Randall was only ranked number 93. I don't know what to tell you, but it is a very fun list to go through. Some blurbs, all kinds of copy, takes, jokes, the whole thing. So you can check that out on theringer.com. Coming up on this podcast,
Starting point is 00:02:58 Steven Ruiz and Benjamin Solak and I are going to talk about quarterbacks and quarterback rankings and Herbert versus Burrow and what's going on with Tua and all of the QB storylines we can think of. And then Peter Schrager comes on and we talk about some of the free agent aspects to the quarterback situation. So this is like a lot of quarterback talk early on, which makes sense because quarterbacks are the most important position in the league. Then we talk some million dollar pick stuff. Can I keep it going? Can I keep the red hot million dollar picks going? I make the picks. And then last but not least, somebody that I own a lot of stock in, a lot of NBA stock,
Starting point is 00:03:35 my guy Malik Monk. I made him come on. I called the Kings. I'm like, I need him. The Kings are really fun to watch. I enjoy them. I want to talk to them. So he came on for the last 20 minutes of this. It was really fun. It was fun to talk to him. Action-packed pod. It's all next. First, our friends from ProJet. All right, taping this a little after lunchtime Pacific time.
Starting point is 00:04:16 Ben Solak is here, as always, on Thursday. The Take Lord, Stephen Ruiz, is here as well. I like the new nickname. Yeah, it's good. I just came up with it right now. You've been doing QB rankings for us every week on The Ringer. And you're also on The Ringer NFL show, a bunch of things. I want to talk about QBs to start with.
Starting point is 00:04:33 It's been a topsy-turvy year for a guy named Tua, who I think if you made the YouTube video of his throws this year that were almost intercepted. How many throws would be on that clip? I'd say at least, I think it's getting close to 20. You said 20 earlier in the week. I don't think it's quite there yet because you missed some time. Like 18?
Starting point is 00:04:54 It's definitely double digits at this point. Because he threw a couple against the Chargers. 18, Ben? Yeah, I mean. Did you go higher? Let's see. We had at least like four in the Steelers game. So if you just assume there's an average of like two per game,
Starting point is 00:05:07 yeah, we're looking at double digits. There was at least three in the first Pats game. He's also like, I think he might lead the league in two defenders colliding into each other who both thought they were going to get the pick. Those ones, which that's a specialist skibby. But on the other hand, he's thrown like 20 of the best deep balls and 30 yard passes of the
Starting point is 00:05:26 year. So they're playing Buffalo, bad weather, seven-point dogs, and I don't know. Is it more likely Miami misses the playoffs or makes the playoffs at this point? Because you could make a case both ways. What do you think, Steven? Well, I really think it comes down to how Tua
Starting point is 00:05:41 adjusts. I know a lot of the talk this week has been like, there's a blueprint out. There's a book out on this Dolphins offense and how is Mike McDaniel going to adjust. But I think this is a situation similar to the one in Los Angeles with McVay and Goff. When Goff got, or not Goff, when McVay's system kind of got found out
Starting point is 00:05:57 by the Patriots in that Super Bowl, McVay couldn't go to a plan B and it wasn't his fault. It was because his quarterback just wasn't capable of it. And Sunday night, there were guys open. I don't put it on McDaniel. Tua just wasn't processing. He wasn't going through his reads. He was locking onto his first read
Starting point is 00:06:14 and whether he was open or not, he was throwing it. So I really think it comes down to Tua and whether he is this quarterback that he was hyped up to be as this sharp processor, this accurate guy who could throw it into tight windows. We're starting to see that, starting to see pushback against that. We're starting to see that not to show up on film
Starting point is 00:06:33 over the last two weeks. And I think it's because defenses are starting to figure him out and starting to figure out his pressure points and like what he doesn't like to see and the types of coverages he struggles with. So I really think it's on him. And if the answer is no, he can adjust,
Starting point is 00:06:46 I would not be surprised if they miss out on the playoffs. So unlike Solak's Eagles where nobody can figure them out because it's such a juggernaut, they're just like, oh, you're going to do this? Watch this. We'll score 40 points this way. What do you think? Have you seen anything in the tape, Solak, with Tua that you think that teams have stumbled on?
Starting point is 00:07:04 Yeah, so the blueprint aspect of it is tricky, right? Like Stephen said, is there a blueprint that McDaniel has to respond to? Schematically, it's okay, Tua threw to the intermediate middle of the field more than any other quarterback in the league. He had like 50% more attempts than second place. He had missed a few games.
Starting point is 00:07:20 They just hammered 10 to 20 yards down the field between the numbers. So the Niners took that away with Fred Warner. The Chargers took it away with bodies. They took it away with scheme. They took away with the dropping safety and with thinking linebackers and just saying, we are going, you know, they played their corners with inside leverage. But like unbelievable, insane.
Starting point is 00:07:35 You don't see this inside leverage daring Mike McDaniel to throw a call, outbreaking routes and then daring to throw them. And just the offense was, it was a Django piece in a tower, right? You pulled out the intermediate middle and there just wasn't enough structure around for the offense to stay sustainable. So, okay, there's your blueprint. Take away the middle of the field,
Starting point is 00:07:52 run some press coverage, that'll help disrupt the timing. There you go. There are schematic solutions to that. Like they try to throw, you know, outbreakers, they're going to try to run the football more. Like those exist.
Starting point is 00:08:01 The coaching job for McDaniel is less about the schematic answers and more about the individual player that tua is like what he is like what his character is what his confidence is because there are on the niners film in the chargers film a litany of open receivers and just available checkdowns one-on-one matchups that should be taken clean pockets that he he escapes out of time that he doesn't buy. Tua is a snowball quarterback, man. When he starts hitting throws, he's extremely confident. He'll whistle something in there. When he starts missing, when this offense doesn't immediately catch fire in quarter one, he just gets really underconfident,
Starting point is 00:08:40 especially if you start hitting them and you start accelerating that internal clock. I can't think of another quarterback in the league who has such a precipitous drop off once he starts getting hit and starts struggling like tua does and so for mcdaniel the coaching challenge isn't so much about the scheme aspect of it as it's about managing the individual this is a guy who's just been like fraught with like a very traumatic career in terms of the injuries and the ups and the downs and like all the visibility on him and in miami and bores and everything that's going on with Tua, you have to manage the individual. You have to find a way to get him confident, keep him confident, even when you have bumpy games to start. McDaniel said that like at the beginning of the year, he said so much of
Starting point is 00:09:15 his improvement was just like getting him confident. And I feel like he's lost that confidence. You could see it on film. You could see him not being confident in his reads the way he was. He's not getting rid of, he's still getting rid of the ball quickly, but it's not as quickly and as confidently as it was over the first 13 weeks of the season. Ruiz, you had him ranked 16th in your latest QB rankings. You had him behind Derek Carr, who I think has been pretty lousy this year compared to last year.
Starting point is 00:09:39 You had him behind Cousins. You had him behind Kyler Murray, who's not even playing anymore. You had him behind Watson. That's not Kyler's fault, though. It's not like you got benched. Well, you haven't behind Watson, who I haven't been impressed by. Lawrence, who's been up and down, et cetera, et cetera. You've been pretty hard on two in these rankings.
Starting point is 00:10:00 The two of fan base, they're a handful. They're probably the number one craziest affection for a player fan base that we have right now. When did it get the lowest for you when he was doing the best? Just the amount of shit you were taking. The Lions game. The Lions game. Because the Lions game, the film was actually pretty good. It was the best film I had seen all year from him. Before, there were those plays that you referenced where he was throwing into defenders and they were just dropping the interceptions that was not on the Lions film
Starting point is 00:10:31 at all he was throwing with confidence he was throwing downfield so that's the game where I was like oh man I think after that game I wrote like a little like like a mea culpa yeah a mea culpa I rewrote his blurb and everything. But now I'm kicking myself, man. I should have stayed strong. Stay the course. I should have believed in myself. I knew this was coming. You know what?
Starting point is 00:10:52 Rosello and I had this with Trey Young where we were kind of in the minority with Trey Young. We were like, no, this isn't going to work. You can't win this way. And then he had that run where he beat the Sixers and made round three. And we were like, I guess maybe we were wrong. But now it's back to where we were. And then he had that run where he beat the Sixers and made round three and we're like, I guess maybe we were wrong. But now it's back
Starting point is 00:11:08 to where we were. And now it's like, oh! We were there the whole time! It is funny when players can zag against you. The one thing that he does throw a beautiful deep ball. So if you're comparing if you're just saying you're looking at some of these quarterbacks that are the up and down
Starting point is 00:11:24 quarterbacks, Ben. like Sam Darnold a little bit of a roller coaster ride you have bet on the Panthers and you're like I gotta cross my fingers here in this third 11 but then there will be that one you're saying exclusively you I refuse to join you on the Panthers
Starting point is 00:11:39 I'm not either he'll have that one he'll bust out in the third and 11 and he'll run for 26 yards and he looks like a gazelle. And you're like, Sam Darnold, it's only 23. There's something here. And then the next play, he throws it at triple
Starting point is 00:11:55 coverage. But it feels like we have more quarterbacks than ever who are like glass half full, glass half empty guys, depending on how you stare at them. Right? Yeah. I would say that for sure. Yeah. What I think it is who are like glass half full, glass half empty guys, depending on how you stare at them, right? Yeah, I would say that for sure. Yeah. What I think it is is the NFL over the last 10 years has gotten so much better at raising the floor of quarterbacking.
Starting point is 00:12:15 We have figured out ways to scrape together an offense around a myriad of players. Just like Jared Goff is the perfect example. 2016, first overall pick, 6'4", throws a nine ball like you've never seen, comes out of Jeff Fisher offense, just can't hack it. Like the second he's pressured,
Starting point is 00:12:32 he just can't do it, not comfortable in the pocket. The book on this guy would have been like, all right, he'll bounce around as a backup. He'll get back in at some point, but like, hey, he just can't beat pressure. He's not a fast enough processor. He's not enough accurate quick release.
Starting point is 00:12:44 Hey, he just can't do it. And Sean McVay comes to town and says, hey, you know, the immobile guys, we can't beat pressure. He's not a fast enough processor. He's not enough accurate, quick release. He just can't do it. And Sean McVay comes to town and says, hey, you know, the immobile guys, we can roll them out. We can run a little play action. And all of a sudden,
Starting point is 00:12:51 Jared Goff, 2017, going to the Super Bowl, Jared Goff, he resurrected Goff's career. Four years later, he's trading him away. And the huge contract he signed him to
Starting point is 00:13:00 for Matthew Stafford, he's sending picks to do it. And then he gets to Detroit and what happens? Ben Johnson goes back to that 2017-2018 Rams film and says, okay, I can do a little bit of that. I can do a little bit of that. Oh, we know how to do that too, right?
Starting point is 00:13:12 And we've gotten so much better at raising the floor. So if you're immobile quarterbacks like Goff, we can pick them up a little bit. We have your creators, right? Your guys who are a little bit out of structure. Darnold as an example. Darnold's never had great timing feet in the pocket. He's never had like, you know, perfect understanding of like, you know, West Coast robot sort of predictability, but he's a creator. And
Starting point is 00:13:31 we've figured out the last 10 years, like, hey, you can throw a creator back there and just kind of like let him improv a little bit and it'll work. This is more sustainable. Scrambling quarterbacks, athletes, right? The Jalen Hurts and the Justin Fields of the world who previously would not have been deployed in the NFL the way they are are are now being used because we see how much running quarterbacks matter so we've come up with creative ways schematically to raise the floor of a lot of different prototypes a lot of different styles of quarterbacks that creates a much bigger middle class of quarterbacks that you can tap into i wrote about this before i wrote about this before the playoffs like the nfl now like you go back 15 years ago and like chris brown
Starting point is 00:14:04 for grantland wrote about this nfl offenses were all the same every nfl offense was the same the only thing that was different was their terminology now it's kind of like a college landscape where you have all these different types of offenses and now you have all these different types of quarterbacks who are now viable so i it kind of feels like college football 20 years ago where you had quarterbacks that you could trust if you got into an obvious passing situation. And then there were quarterbacks like Eric Crouch or something where you couldn't win in obvious passing situations. You had to run the football. And I think we're in that spot where you can recognize the strengths of limited quarterbacks like Jared Goff while still realizing that he's not a top guy, even if he's producing like one.
Starting point is 00:14:45 Well, when he has time, he's pretty good. But like how many quarterbacks would we say that about at this point where you can go, look, if you block for this guy, he'll like cars like that too. And the Raiders, we can go on down the line. It makes me wonder like if the new zag for front office would be don't spend money on a quarterback. Put together the greatest offensive line possible. And then there's 12 guys who are pretty good if they have time. And maybe that's a better way to put together a passing offense
Starting point is 00:15:14 than just spending $250 million on Kyla Murray and trading three first-round picks and $250 million for Deshaun Watson. Right. The thing used to interrogate that idea is the difference between October football and January football. I love it for October football.
Starting point is 00:15:30 I love it for regular season football. I'm confident that against the glut of average NFL defenses I get, I can dominate that way. Once I start getting to eight teams left, four teams left, two teams left, it goes back to the Rams are down four to the Cincinnati Bengals with six minutes left
Starting point is 00:15:46 in a game which they'd only scored 16 points. Who would you rather have, Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford? Nine months ago, they chose. They said, I want Matthew Stafford on this drive, please and thank you. And Matthew Stafford pushes them down the field with Cooper Cup. They scored a game-winning touchdown.
Starting point is 00:15:58 Right. And so that's where I, every edge I can get to build around a lesser quarterback, I want to do. The Eagles, great offensive line, every edge I can get to build around a lesser quarterback. I want to do the Eagles. Great offensive line. Unbelievable offensive line developer. Jeff Stoutland, their offensive line coach was hired by chip. Survives chip being fired.
Starting point is 00:16:12 So I've dug being fired. Now he's working with, with Nick Sirianni. This guy's going to solve our line problems for us. It's trade for AJ Brown, Devante Smith, top 10 pig. I don't care that he's 170 pounds. I need receivers. They have everything you need to elevate a quarterback. What's the big final question?
Starting point is 00:16:26 What is Hurts going to look like on a playoff run? Because last year when he got to the playoffs, the Buccaneers punked him. Right? So you elevate quarterbacks as best you can.
Starting point is 00:16:32 But once you get to January, it's really important that that guy's not a Jimmy Garoppolo. He's got to be more than a Jimmy. We know a Jimmy is in the playoffs. We've referenced this quote like a couple times
Starting point is 00:16:42 over the past couple weeks. Great quote. Before the Patriots ran Super Bowl, Mike Girardi of nfl network had a report a pre-game report where he said in public the patriots defenders are talking about how much they respect jared golf but behind the scenes they're saying we're going to show him things he's never seen before and he's going to shit his pants that's the words they used gerardi didn't use those words. But I'm assuming that's the words the Patriots players used before the game. You never hear a Patriots team talk shit about an opposing player before the game. They scored three points.
Starting point is 00:17:15 They weren't lying. That turned out to be the highlight of the Patriots season. Do you think we'll be talking about Sam Darnold in January, Ruiz, as comparing October Sam Darnold talking about Sam Darnold in January Ruiz as comparing October Sam Darnold to January Sam Darnold as the Panthers are hosting the Dallas Cowboys in round one? God I hope not
Starting point is 00:17:32 I don't want this team embarrassing me in front of the national audience no I would be God what a beaten down Panthers fan I think I'm now the biggest Panthers fan at the ringer I just want a quarterback that's all I I ask for. Can I get a top 10 pick and a quarterback that I can root for? I can't talk myself into Sam Darnold.
Starting point is 00:17:49 You don't like Jason Horn? Talk myself into Sam Darnold the second time. This is his second chance at starting for the Panthers. I can't do it a second time. How'd you feel watching Baker? Game-winning drive for the Rams. Yeah, that hurt. The one that got away? You think I watched that game? I didn't watch that game. The Baker thing hurt because he cost the
Starting point is 00:18:06 Panthers at least two wins. They're 5-8. They could be 8-5 with even a half-decent quarterback. DJ Morton, I take it as something up. Wait, back to the quarterback rankings. Ruiz, you had Mahomes 1, Herbert 2,
Starting point is 00:18:23 Lamar 3, Burrow four, and Josh Allen five. That was your top five. I have a couple quibbles. One, the ringers love, it's not just the ringer, it's really the football,
Starting point is 00:18:36 the smart football community. And Herbert is their God. Right? Mahomes is everyone's God, but then Herbert has become the other one. And I just want to know what Joe Burrow has to do to earn everyone's respect. Like was not making the Superbowl enough?
Starting point is 00:18:51 Was it all the times he's come through in big games? Is he not, is he not cool enough under pressure? Does he not have awesome throws in the fourth quarter? Like what else does Joe Burrow have to do? I know he wasn't good on the Manning cast, but what else does he not have to do or have to do? To catch Herbert? To be number two.
Starting point is 00:19:08 I feel like he should be number two. I think he has to prove that he has the physical talent to make the same throws, the same elite throws that we've seen these other quarterbacks make. Joe Burrow tends to get it done in structure, which is a very good thing, a very valuable thing to have because you can call any play and you know he's going to get it done in structure, which is a very good thing, a very valuable thing to have
Starting point is 00:19:26 because you can call any play and you know he's going to execute it well. But what happens when the defense knocks him off his spot and they force him to make an outbreaking throw? He's one of the, by accuracy, he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at outbreakers over 10 air yards.
Starting point is 00:19:42 And we know his accuracy is very good. So I would like Bengals fans to fill in the blank why that is. It's because he doesn't have arm strength. And that's been a thing going back to his time at Ohio State even when Urban Meyer was yelling at him, telling him he doesn't have a Division I arm. That's the thing. He's never going to have that talent.
Starting point is 00:19:59 He's never going to have that ceiling that these other guys have. You can make up for that in different ways, like we've seen Tom Brady do. But Tom Brady came up in a different era of development. He got to spend extra time in meeting rooms. He got, Bill Belichick was teaching him how to read defenses. I don't think Burrow's going to have that same education that Brady did, where Brady was capable to overcome those physical limitations because he was perfect at everything.
Starting point is 00:20:24 And I don't think we can... I think if Tom Brady gets drafted in 2020, he doesn't become Tom Brady. He becomes Kirk Cousins, maybe. Maybe not Kirk. Oh, the takes are out. That's right. I don't think Tom Brady exists in 2020
Starting point is 00:20:37 if he's drafted. It was a different era. When's the last time we saw a pocket passer get developed like this? Wow. I need to have a cigarette or something. So, where do you stand on this Burrow-Herbert thing?
Starting point is 00:20:51 I've been Herbert over Burrow since I think Herbert started to take over the league. This, however, is the best Burrow has played. Better than any stretch he had during the Super Bowl season. The book on Burrow last year was if you give the guy a single
Starting point is 00:21:05 high, he'll rip you to shreds. I mean, Jamar and T. Higgins are too good. He's got too much trust, too much accuracy, too much quick process, and that if he gets a one-on-one matchup man or zone on the outside, good night, take your ball home. You cannot do it against the Bengals. You gave them too high, they would struggle a little bit throwing the football.
Starting point is 00:21:22 Still good, but they would struggle. And one of the roots of that struggle was that Burrow still tried to throw his one-on-one matchups. He still tried to throw outside against too high. Tough thing to do. And the second thing is if he didn't like the look, he'd hold on to the football. And he tried to create.
Starting point is 00:21:35 And that's where the lack of elite physical tools came in. He wasn't the best mover. He's not the best arm. He's a good mover with a decent arm, but he's not the best. And because of that, he took a lot of sacks. The offensive line was bad. Early pressure, but he took a lot of sacks. The offensive line was bad, early pressure, but he took a lot of sacks.
Starting point is 00:21:50 One of the things that Bengals fans hoped and expected entering this season was that an improved offensive line would bring Burrow's sack rate down. But it didn't. Early in the season, Burrow's sack rate remained the same. In fact, it was jumping up relative to the amount of pressure he was receiving. And that's because sacks, like we like to say sacks are a quarterback stat, sack percentage, the likelihood of taking a sack, is generally predicted by how the quarterback chooses to play. Think Russell Wilson.
Starting point is 00:22:10 If you choose to just hold on to the football and screw around back there, you're going to get sacked a lot. You're going to make some throws, make some plays. You're going to get sacked a lot. Adam Harstad of, I think Dynasty Football it is, writes about the three-legged stool of quarterbacking, which is throwaway percentage or yards per attempt, interception percentage, and sack
Starting point is 00:22:27 percentage. One of the three is going to be big. You're going to take a lot of sacks, you're going to take a lot of interceptions, or you're going to throw the ball away a lot. Or you're going to have a low depth of target. Everybody's play style fits into those buckets. Burrow's play style was a high sack quarterback. Over the last month and a half,
Starting point is 00:22:45 Burrow's not taking sacks. Ball's coming out quicker. He's checking down. He's scrambling a lot more than he was. It is very rare to see a quarterback change his stripes, to see play style change. That's one of the things that's been tough with Russ is he's still playing like he did when he was 24.
Starting point is 00:22:58 He's not 24-year-old legs anymore. The fact that Burrow has kind of, you know, had an awakening here and realized, I can't take this many sacks, and it's just boom. Gotten them out of his game this quickly is extremely impressive, especially if it's sustainable. Burrow's making up ground on Herbert
Starting point is 00:23:15 because he's taking a huge wart out of his game. If that's sustainable, that's a huge deal for Cincinnati. I would also say everything that Burrow gets credit for being good at, like reading defenses, being accurate, all of that. Justin Herbert's better at all that stuff. He's more accurate.
Starting point is 00:23:32 He's better at processing. He's quicker at processing. He doesn't get sacked. He doesn't throw interceptions. He still pushes the ball downfield. Solak just talked about that three-legged stool idea. I wrote about that last year with Herbert. I mentioned it. He's the only quarterback that doesn't have like a bad a bad metric in one of those is it bad a dot but that's he does this year but that's not his fault last year he did not when he had
Starting point is 00:23:54 offensive line and weapons but he's like this is why we talk about him so much and it's not just us like i went to chargers training camp i interviewed their coaches they talk about him like we talk about him. Their quarterback coach, Shane Day, called him the greatest quarterback ever after his second year. He says he has a file of clips that show why Justin Herbert's the best quarterback ever. Brandon Staley talks about him
Starting point is 00:24:16 like he's a god. And you never hear NFL coaches talk about their players like that because they don't want to raise expectations. But Chargers coaches can't help themselves and I don't blame them because when you turn on the film, every play is perfect. You saw it on Sunday night. Those were not ideal conditions.
Starting point is 00:24:30 He was getting pressured within a second, and you wouldn't even notice it. He was just sliding away from the pressure, finding his check down, keeping his eyes downfield, throwing downfield. He plays quarterback better than I've ever seen a person play quarterback at this point in his career. He's not a playmaker.
Starting point is 00:24:47 He's not a playmaker. That's what separates him from the Josh Allens and the Patrick Mahomes. He needs to live a little. He needs to let loose a little. He has the talent to do that. He doesn't do it. He's such a robot to a fault. But when it's not a bad play,
Starting point is 00:25:03 when it's good to go through your progressions, no one's better than him at it. Well, now he's got Mike Williams back. It's interesting. Their schedule is favorable the rest of the way. On FanDuel, they're 20-1 to win the AFC. The way you were talking about him was like when I was in high school, John Elway,
Starting point is 00:25:18 the first five, six years of John Elway, where he was just so good. And it was almost like basketball, watching a basketball player just put their team on their back and he would just win these playoff games he shouldn't and just clearly had the most talent. But I wonder, could Herbert,
Starting point is 00:25:38 if he's as good as the smart football community has been touting, could it just be this random year where he just has a run like a basketball player would? We got to get Herbert his Mike Shanahan. Joe Lombardi ain't it. That's a big part of the issue is that because Lombardi has a computer quarterback,
Starting point is 00:26:00 like Stephen says, like Herbert's just so incessantly correct all of the times, making the right read, making the right decisions at the right time. Lombardi does not feel the stress to improve his offense because Herbert makes it work. And that's just like, it's such a trap for
Starting point is 00:26:13 the Chargers if they let the offense continue to play this way. Let's take a quick break. Hey, if you want to get more out of this NFL season, it's the perfect time to download FanDuel America's number one sportsbook. New customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win.
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Starting point is 00:27:55 you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. So you're doing these rankings every week, Ruiz. What is the most shocking as you're putting everybody in order, the one that just shocks you the most when you see it on the list? I can't believe that person is there. Honestly, it's Jalen Hurts, and I've gotten
Starting point is 00:28:25 a lot of crap for this from Eagles fans this week. I want him to be higher. I really want him to be higher, but we've set up the rankings to be based on these grades, and I just don't know what to put higher. I don't think he's an overly accurate quarterback, but I don't think he's an inaccurate quarterback. I think he's got a good
Starting point is 00:28:41 arm. I don't think he has an elite arm. I think he's a very creative player. His decision-making has improved by leaps and bounds this year. I think his pocket presence is still a weakness, but it's getting better. I've given him all this credit. I just don't know what else you want
Starting point is 00:28:58 from me. I think he's a good quarterback. He's a top 10 quarterback. If you put the 10th best quarterback behind the best offensive line and give him an elite receiving core and a good offensive coordinator, I would expect top of the league results. So I don't know. I don't want to overreact to him being first and MVP odds. I don't know. I don't know what else to say. I just think he's the 10th best quarterback. I don't think he's better than Dak Prescott. I don't think he's better than Dak Prescott. I don't think he's better than Gino Smith. I don't think he's better than Tom Brady right now.
Starting point is 00:29:27 Even when I watched Tom Brady play, he looks like a better quarterback on film. He's just in a bad situation. And I think if you simulated this season a hundred times, the top five in like whatever metric you like DVO, a EPA, whatever the top five of quarterbacks would look different each and every time.
Starting point is 00:29:43 So I'm not going to overreact to one season of results. So lack your rebuttal. We, we did like a little rank Jalen hurts exercise and really special this weekend. I had him around like seven, which I think, right.
Starting point is 00:29:55 We're seven and 10. It feels like a big difference, but kind of you, you have your elite tier of quarterbacks. You have your homes at one, and then you have your elites, you have your homes and you have your boroughs and you have your Lamars. And then when you start to get into that B tier,
Starting point is 00:30:06 that next group, that's where I think Hurts lands. And I think that it's difficult to figure out where guys like Rodgers and Brady are in that. Steven's grading for this year. When you look at quarterbacks across the league, you're kind of thinking, what are they going to be more so on an arc for the next couple years?
Starting point is 00:30:20 And Rodgers and Brady makes that a little bit messy. But the difficulty with Hurts is, it's the same difficulty that general managers have had and been trying to riddle out for years, that analysts have always been trying to riddle out, which is the difference between what's difficult and what's valuable, right? It'd be very nice, it'd be wonderful if the most difficult, the hardest things for a quarterback to do were also the things that were most valuable on the field. Then it'd be very easy to figure out who the best ones are and who the best ones aren't. The reality is that Hurts does a lot of things that are very easy.
Starting point is 00:30:49 Scrambling, breaking the pocket, one read and gone is extremely easy. Throwing, you know, isolation routes to A.J. Brown, jump balls, 50-50s, that's extremely easy. However, those are also very valuable. Scrambling is twice as valuable as an attempted pass by EPA per play across the league-wide averages this season,
Starting point is 00:31:05 which is an insane thing to say, but scrambling is so much more valuable than attempting a pass, and Hurts is well-built to scramble. The offense allows him to scramble. Throwing downfield,
Starting point is 00:31:14 well, guess what? When you connect with A.J. Brown 35 yards down the field, it's a lot easier than Trevor Lawrence and Geno Smith throwing a rhythm seam route that they alerted to
Starting point is 00:31:22 against one high covered by a linebacker tight window back shoulder. It's a lot more easy, but it's more valuable. It's further downfield. And guess what? Ball still moved, right? So Hertz has an easier time getting the ball down the field
Starting point is 00:31:36 runner pass than almost any other quarterback in the league. That doesn't mean it's not valuable. It just means when you're like figuring out who's good at quarterbacking, it makes the picture muddy. So the more we learn about like scrambling quarterbacks rpo offenses in the nfl the more these horizons get pushed the easier it'll be to say like oh because hertz does this he's more talented he's the eighth most talented sixth most talented fourth most talented but right now we're still in a transition period we're still figuring that out and it makes it hard to calibrate
Starting point is 00:32:01 what he does relative to some like of the top pocket passers in the league. That's why it's easy for me to reconcile him being at, at 10. While if I was given an MVP vote, I would still have him second on my ballot for MVP. Cause I do think that he is first Patrick, the homes, the best quarterback in the league, the best player in the NFL,
Starting point is 00:32:18 the most valuable player in the NFL. You disagree. Come on. Well, I just think if the Eagles go 16-1, Hurts has to be the MVP. Yeah, narrative-wise, he's going to win the award. The 16-1, I think, matters.
Starting point is 00:32:36 Sal and I did this on Sunday's pod about how rare it is to have a zero-win season or a one-win season. It's not a long list. And the thing with the Eagles is they're getting better and better as the season goes along. And I think one of the reasons is I feel like he's gotten a little bit better, you know, and he's certainly better than I ever thought he was going to be like, you have Brady ahead of him. My quibble with Brady is A, he can't
Starting point is 00:33:02 move at all. Can't move at all. And B, I don't think he wants to get hit anymore. So you see him over and over again. He's just giving up on plays. He's choosing the self-preservation piece over like, you know, the insane Mike White performance last week where Mike White's like, just kill me. You will take the starting job out of my dead hands. I don't care how many times I get hit. Brady doesn't want to be hit anymore. And that's why I would value Hurts because the scrambling, like Solak said, his ability to create plays,
Starting point is 00:33:32 but then also just, I just think he's harder to play against. I think Brady's pretty easy to play against now because you know he's not going to move and you know he's not going to want to get hit. You agree or disagree, Solak? I have Hurts above Brady. And I think disagree, Solek? I have hurts about Brady. And I think that ease of playing against him is such a big part of it,
Starting point is 00:33:48 where it's like Stephen's making faces at me as he usually does during these podcasts. But it's with Brady, right? I know where my pressure points are. I know what was a hit, and I know what not to hit. And you can say the same thing is true for Jalen Hurts. It's just Hurts' more creative solution. There's unpredictability with him,
Starting point is 00:34:02 where you can do the right thing, and he still beats you. The construct that we use to talk about this a lot, and we used it with Tua, which I think is where it's really beneficial, is it's important to think of
Starting point is 00:34:11 one NFL play as two NFL plays. There's structure. There's what we plan at the snap. Here's the coverage. Here's the pass concept. Boom. And then once that's covered up, once the structure didn't work
Starting point is 00:34:21 for the offense, the second play begins. The second reaction, the improvisation, the scramble drill. And over the last 10 years of football, but certainly the last five or six, Mahomes and Allen entering the league, we realized, holy smokes, that second play is important.
Starting point is 00:34:35 There's so much to be gained in that second play. And right now, Brady doesn't bring you to a second play to nearly the same degree as Jalen Hurts does. He doesn't give you that second swing at the plate. I disagree with that. I think you're just looking at one way to get to that second play. I think there's multiple ways for a quarterback to get to that second play. But when you're talking about going through his progressions in the pocket. Check down and buying time is still within structure.
Starting point is 00:34:58 Check down and buying time is still within structure. That's still the first play. Yeah, I know. But if your first read is open, your plan A isn't there. He still has a viable plan B, a plan C, a plan D. He's the only quarterback besides Herbert now that I've seen get through his progressions that quickly and have that type of creative force without being a runner. At the same time, I have docked his creativity score like 30 points this year because he is not moving. But I would also say put him behind the best offensive line in the NFL and you'd see the old old tom brady come yeah they have him getting through his progressions you'd get him you'd see him going through his progressions you'd see him creating these big plays in the passing game when his first read isn't there so i don't know i think there's there's different ways to skin the cat and tom brady in his situation he can't do the way he typically goes beyond his first read whereas
Starting point is 00:35:43 jalen hurts is playing on easy mode. He's playing on rookie mode while Tom Brady's playing on all Madden. I think it's impossible to compare the results because of that. You have Kyle Allen as the number 38 and last quarterback in your rankings. And Zach Wilson
Starting point is 00:35:59 37. So it's Zach Wilson's first win of the year. He beat Kyle. What would you say Zach Wilson does better than Kyle Allen, Steve? What does he do better than Kyle Allen? He has more arm talent. That's the only thing that I have to say. Objectively throw it further. Mills was 36.
Starting point is 00:36:16 Heineke, 35. Tough beat for Heineke. He's got a winning record. He's somehow behind Baker Mayfield. I don't respect that archetype of quarterback. Okay. The Johnny Knoxville jackass quarterback who just gets hurt for our entertainment.
Starting point is 00:36:31 That's what he is. My guy Brock Purdy at 33. But as I go up here, you have Mac Jones at 25 and Desmond Ritter at 26 who we haven't even seen play football yet. So how do you rank Ritter?
Starting point is 00:36:48 What are you basing that on? Pre-season film? Pre-season film, college film, his talent. I think he's a more talented player. I think anyone should admit that he's more talented. He's got a better arm. He's more athletic. And then I would say that he's just as good of a processor as him that was
Starting point is 00:37:05 ritter's big thing standing in the pocket going through his reads and making the tough throws that mac jones hasn't made enough over the first two years of his career we could we could blame josh mcdaniels we can blame matt patricia and they deserve all the blame in the world but there are open guys over the middle and it requires a throw and mac jones doesn't throw him he doesn't throw him he could clamoror for less quick game, but you got to make the throws, buddy, or we can't call those plays. I think it's fair.
Starting point is 00:37:31 I'm not going to defend Mac Jones. Ritter is getting four and a half points against the Saints this week. A Saints team that's not very good, and Mariota was terrible, and it's hard not to think that that's a pretty tasty four and a half for our underdog team because Ritter just might come in and be solid right away, right? So, like, what do you think?
Starting point is 00:37:51 Do you see him coming in and being decent? Yeah, I'm on Falcons plus four and a half this week. And, right, it's basically when you install a rookie quarterback, you expect there to be like, all right, there's rookie lumps and there's rookie mistakes. And we want to try to avoid those. And how are we going to protect this guy? Let's bring his past attempts down, right?
Starting point is 00:38:08 Let's give them all play action. Let's move the pocket. The Falcons have been doing that since week one. This is the whole Falcons offense is just protect the quarterback, hide the quarterback. Right. And the issue that got Mariota benched was when Mariota had his past attempts and he had the opportunity to throw the ball down the field,
Starting point is 00:38:22 he wasn't paying it off. He wasn't connecting with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Olamide Zaccheaus. They weren't ripping off those chunk gains. All Ritter needs to do to notably elevate the Falcons offense is just connect on two downfield shots. Just put the ball somewhere near Kyle Pitts. Not even like you're throwing to Darnell Mooney. Throw to very large people, Pitts and London. Put the ball where they can go get it. Ask them to do that work for you. And I think that across the Ritter Cincinnati film, you saw enough evidence that you have some faith in that.
Starting point is 00:38:50 I like the Falcons plus four and a half. I also like the Falcons to just get a, you know, off of the bye bump, new quarterback bump. We freaking hate the Saints bump. We still have a 2% chance to win this division bump. Like this to me feels like a spot where the Falcons are going to try to punch the Saints in the mouth. Are you guys buying the Lions in Jersey against a banged-up Jets team in cold weather?
Starting point is 00:39:09 I think Solak is, but I'm not buying them. I've seen this movie before. I've seen Jared Goff play against a good defense. I've seen him play in the cold. I know how this ends. I'm not going to get fooled again. I'm not going to be Charlie Brown kicking the football. I'm not going to.
Starting point is 00:39:21 Well, if Williams isn't 100% or if he doesn't play. Yeah, that's a big deal I think then what does that mean can we say the Jets have a good defense anymore because that's probably the most important piece
Starting point is 00:39:31 they have absolutely Robert Sala knows Jared Goff he's been around they were in the NFC West together for a few years
Starting point is 00:39:38 and once the book was out on Goff and it was like hey if you pressure this guy he breaks Sala just stopped respecting him and just had some really good games against him 2018, 2019. If Quinnen's healthy, then they're going to get their pass rush with four.
Starting point is 00:39:52 They're going to have the ability to rush. And they still will, even if Quinnen's not healthy. Bryce Huff, you know, John Franklin Myers, Sheldon Rankin, Solomon Thomas. They have a nice group there. But Quinnen is the best rusher that they have on that group, especially in the interior. If he doesn't play, they're going to more likely have to bring blitzes, bring additional bodies
Starting point is 00:40:09 in coverage to try to beat Goff by pressuring him. Now you're in one-on-one positions downfield. Now you're kind of flipping coins. Now you're living in a more volatile environment. Games to stay away. We can't pick that game on a Thursday. Because the other thing is, how hurt is Mike White? What if Mike White has a few cracked ribs?
Starting point is 00:40:26 Zach Wilson getting promoted to backup is to me a little bit of a preamble for, like, hey, Mike White may not play this game. At least he's not
Starting point is 00:40:34 Kyle Allen. Yeah, if, true, if it was Kyle Allen, it'd be worse, but it's Zach Wilson. And they're doing a lot of PR for Zach right now.
Starting point is 00:40:43 He's handled the locker room great. He's doing a good job. He's been preparing well. And it's like, okay, you're trying to convince me they don't hate him anymore? I think they may still hate him. So it's a game where I wouldn't bet it
Starting point is 00:40:54 until I know what the health situations are for Mike Langton and Williams. Where do you guys stand on the trap game of the week? Bengals minus three and a half at Tampa Bay. Tampa has covered once in the past like three months and looks like they're done and they're dead men walking and yet some other minus 320 to win the
Starting point is 00:41:12 NFC South. I'll tell you, I don't hate it. I don't hate like a Bucs upset here because I think that their problem so far has been just they're so slow. They're on both sides of the ball. They're slow. Yeah. I think they have corners that are physical and that will
Starting point is 00:41:27 get in a fight, get in a barroom fight. And that's what you have to do against this Bengals team, against those receivers that are so physical. And Joe Burrow can put the ball anywhere he wants on their back shoulder. You have to win at the line of scrimmage. You have to beat them up. I don't think the Bucs are going to win, but I could see a path to winning for them.
Starting point is 00:41:43 Other side of the ball, the argument is kind of the same. Lou Anarumo is the DC for the Bengals. He's been so good at matchups, so good at schemes. Nobody's had any difficulty scheming against the Bucs offense. It's very obvious what's going to happen. They won't run the ball. Same stuff on first down, same stuff on second down, third down.
Starting point is 00:42:00 Brady's not going to move the launch point, right? So it just comes down to your matchups. It comes down to Mike Evans against Cam Taylor-Britt, right? It comes down to Leonard Fournette in the hole against Logan Thomas. And the Bucs still have talent, even though they've been generally disappointing this year. So, I don't hate it. With that said, Cincinnati's been really, really good over the last month.
Starting point is 00:42:19 So, you're trying to right now window that kind of letdown game. It's the same thing with the Niners. They're playing the Seahawks tonight. I'm looking at that three- a half like divisional game. They're banged up short week. They've been unstoppable for five weeks. When does the other shoe drop? Right.
Starting point is 00:42:34 Bengals win the first half parlayed with Bengals win the game. I'm Fando plus 105. Bengals come out, take the lead, never give it up. I'm looking at it. I love the fade first half bucks because they don't start actually trying to win football games until they're down multiple scores in the fourth quarter. That's when they start throwing the football on second down.
Starting point is 00:42:52 Bowles takes a while to wake up after the Star Spangled Banner. I don't know if it takes probably like about an hour before he realizes where he is. The Giants-Washington game, the line is a little high. Washington's getting treated now. I guess, with Chase Young probably coming back. They're just a superior team. I watched that game. They seem pretty even to me.
Starting point is 00:43:14 Do you think either of these teams could win in round one? God, no. No. Yeah, definitely not. If you take me back to fully healthy Giants, I could be talked into it, maybe. Like a possible sneaky something? Yeah, like Daniel Jones running the football, Brian Dable runs 16 flea flickers,
Starting point is 00:43:33 you know what I'm saying? Yeah. Like, yeah, sure. Now, where it's just like, I got to look up the depth chart to figure out who these cats are? No, I'm out. And same for Seattle, right?
Starting point is 00:43:42 Their defense is just so porous at this point. I can't imagine them doing anything. It's weird because we I rooted for the seven seed. I wanted more stuff to gamble on in round one. I was excited for it. But in the NFC, I don't think there's any danger in the AFC. You know, it's a little more interesting
Starting point is 00:43:59 for the Lions. Yeah. People are talking about it. Lions in the playoffs. They're like, six didn't give you away over the last month. Well, I'm aware of that, but they'd have to beat the Jets. They'd basically have to run the slate, right?
Starting point is 00:44:12 They'd have to go 10-7. They have Carolina next week and Carolina. Yeah. Oh, I forgot, right? Because for most people, they beat the Jets and their schedule's easy.
Starting point is 00:44:20 But for you, you see the Panthers game, right? Well, I see the juggernaut Panthers waiting for them. Like, I don't want to play the Panthers. Keep pounding. At Green Bay, week 17, you can't sleep on that either. None of us totally
Starting point is 00:44:33 trust Goff in this situation. They could be 6-8 on Sunday at 4 o'clock. The AFC, though, I assume the Chargers will not be a seven seed. I think they're going to make it. And maybe they're even a six seed.
Starting point is 00:44:47 The team that if they were healthy, I wouldn't want to play in round one is the jets. Cause I think the jets are talented and they're physical and they have people like Wilson's going to make like five plays in a playoff game. He just is. He's going to get open. They can run the ball a little bit. I'm just not sure I would see them. I would love to see the Patriots if I'm a two seed. He just is. He's going to get open. They can run the ball a little bit. I'm just not
Starting point is 00:45:06 sure I would see them. I would love to see the Patriots if I'm a two seed. Yeah. I said earlier today, I said my barometer for whether or not I'm interested in wildcard weekend for the AFC is if the Patriots are playing or not. If the Patriots will be the worst game. I'm like, we'll be the set. We'll be the early Saturday game. Nickelodeon
Starting point is 00:45:21 game. They'll be on. Yeah, it'll be how fast could we put them on? Sorry, Kyle. Don't listen to this part. Solek, what's your favorite game this week? The Dolphins-Bills game on Saturday, which is an island game, is going to be an extremely interesting
Starting point is 00:45:36 kind of fun. The snow might make it a weird game, but I feel we're going to learn a lot from that matchup. I'm very excited to watch Jags-Cowboys. Ooh! This Jags team has been bad to me.
Starting point is 00:45:47 It's been a tough team to figure out and then they're hitting late and whatever. I watched that Trevor Lawrence film against the Titans yesterday. Holy smokes. That's the best game he's played with a bullet. Even Ruiz liked it. He's even happy. It was Herbert S. That's what I'll
Starting point is 00:46:03 say. It was like justin herbert yeah ruiz is like you know the uh he's long been enamored with with herbert and lawrence is now coming up as the next like tall white pocket guy here we go um but the uh the cowboys are so banged up in the secondary right uh calvin joseph second year players taking a lot of snaps to run bland as a rookie for them is playing in the. And they had that huge fourth quarter against the Colts a couple weeks ago, which a lot of turnovers generated. It kind of hid the fact that that game was closer than a lot of people thought for longer than a lot of people thought.
Starting point is 00:46:36 And then the Texans come to town, and the Texans get a couple lucky turnovers. They're doing a two-quarterback thing, but that game was closer for a lot longer than a lot of people thought. And Dallas's issues in the secondary, I think, are starting to be a bit of a weak point for this team. With the way Lawrence was throwing the football against the Titans, the way he's been throwing football for the last few weeks
Starting point is 00:46:52 is the Jaguars have gotten a lot better. This can get shootout-y, Dallas-Jacksonville, and I think that's a fun one for your AFC and your NFC wildcard picture. I would pick the same game because I think it's a litmus test for both teams. The Jaguars, I still think have a chance of catching the Titans. Yeah. But they have to be able to beat good teams. And this is a chance to do that. And then for the Cowboys,
Starting point is 00:47:13 like, their defense has been the better part, the better half of this team. And I want to see what they do against a quarterback that I think is a top 10 quarterback now. This is a good chance to see them against the type of quarterbacks they're going to see later in the playoffs. And we've seen them
Starting point is 00:47:27 the last couple weeks beat Davis Mills and Matt Ryan. I want to see them beat a good quarterback. And I think this is their first chance in a while. Well, we might be seeing
Starting point is 00:47:35 the Jags in underdog parlay. All right, Ruiz, Solak, good to see you guys. You can listen to them on the Ringer NFL show as well. You can read them on a great website called theringer.com
Starting point is 00:47:43 and enjoy the rest of the week. Thanks. Well, when you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah. Be safe because what you do, others will do too.
Starting point is 00:47:56 Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly. So you won't hear them coming so you won't hear them coming.
Starting point is 00:48:05 You won't hear them coming. See? Safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really?
Starting point is 00:48:14 Really, really. Ugh. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. Alright, our guy Peter Schrager is here. He's going to be on the sidelines for Miami Buffalo this weekend, a game we're probably not touching for the suddenly red-hot million-dollar pick. So let's start with QBs, though. There's all these free agent QBs.
Starting point is 00:48:37 Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Mike White, Danny Dimes, Geno Smith, Taylor Heineke, Sam Darnold, Jimmy G, Jacoby Brissett, Cooper Rush, Baker Mayfield, who are just kind of available trying to unbutton a couple buttons on their blouse and maybe get a bar and see if they can pick up any married guys these last few weeks of the season. Who is your favorite potential free aging QB story right now? Jimmy Garoppolo. I'm fascinated to see how this thing goes down. So you said it, there's four weeks left of the season and across the board, there's guys going into the final years or the final months of their contracts with their current teams. Garoppolo is the only guy who can't really make a statement.
Starting point is 00:49:20 So I'm fascinated to see, is there a market forimmy g do people want jimmy g is he going to be a guy who makes the 20 million dollars he was making with san francisco or is he someone that has to take a discount such as you know one of the deals that like trabisky or mariota had to take this past off season i'm fascinated to see i think the looming uh you know teams that are like you know if tampa loses brady they just go right to garoppolo does san francisco want to dance with Like the looming teams that are like, if Tampa loses Brady, they just go right to Garoppolo. Does San Francisco want to dance with Garoppolo on a short-term deal?
Starting point is 00:49:49 See if we could bring this thing back. Truth of the matter is, every good performance that Brock Purdy has or Josh Johnson or whoever's on the center for San Francisco hurts Jimmy G's value, I think, in a lot of ways. Or people will say,
Starting point is 00:50:02 look, this was a Kyle Shanahan thing and they were just fine without him and they're paying him 20 million. They're paying this guy 800,000. Look at the discount they got. So Jimmy G is fascinating. But in the short term, I mean, Bill, Daniel Jones is fighting for his NFL life as a quarterback one. I hate saying that so dramatically, but this is a guy who was a first round pick, top 10 pick, had it going on. And during the bye week, there was conversations as to whether or not the Giants were going to give a massive extension, a somewhat big extension. Now I wonder if he totally just, you know,
Starting point is 00:50:32 the last four weeks can't get it going. Giants don't make the playoffs. They're, you know, an under 500 team. Are you bringing back Daniel Jones? They haven't won since October. No, they won November 13th. They beat the Texans. but it was one of the ugliest games you could imagine. And they were trying to give that game away in a lot of ways.
Starting point is 00:50:51 Yeah, I remember that. I was at the game Sunday and maybe they were just saving themselves or maybe they were already thinking Washington, but the team that took the field and Philly ran all over, from the second Philly got off the bus, you know, there was no chance the Giants were winning that game. Well, the line for that game is Giants plus four and a half in Washington, which seems a point and a half too high. I watched that entire game where they had the tie
Starting point is 00:51:14 and those teams are pretty even. And now they're basically like begging you to take the Giants. But I thought that was a little suspicious. I'm with you on dimes. Heineke, you could throw in there too. You know, Heineke goes 11, five and one. And, you know, it was like a little suspicious. I'm with you on dimes. Heineke, you could throw in there too. You know? What do you make of it? Heineke goes 11-5-1
Starting point is 00:51:27 and, you know, it's like a six seed. You know, and then we're talking Sam Darnold, you and I, because we've put our entire egg collection into his basket. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:36 It depends who the coach is. If they bring back Wilks, that obviously helps. That means that they went on some sort of crazy run and they found a way. But like, Sam Darnold, you look at that.
Starting point is 00:51:46 All right, they're winning games, but they're led by the run game. It's pretty shaky. They have their scripted plays for him in the first half, but once we get in the second half, he's fast. I mean, worst case scenario, you could use him a little like how Atlanta used Mariota,
Starting point is 00:52:01 but he does make me nervous, especially when you have money on Carolina. It's like third and nine. You're like, all right, but he does make me nervous. Especially when you have money on Carolina, it's like third and nine. You're like, all right, Sam, don't hurt us. So I think the ones like the,
Starting point is 00:52:11 the one that I think is legit good, who unfortunately might have seven broken ribs right now is Mike White. Because, um, I just, I so impressed by some of the throws he makes. Tough as shit. And his toughness. He got the absolute shit kicked out of him last week. And when he came out of the tunnel,
Starting point is 00:52:32 you're thinking like, no, no, Mike, let this one go, man. Comes right back. You got annihilated. It was like a sports movie hit. Matt Milano just collapses him. Yeah, his whole body collapsed. But he's going to try to play this week. That's one of the reasons I like the Lions this week.
Starting point is 00:52:48 I really have liked the Jets, and they've been pretty good to us, but I just don't see how Mike White's going to be even like 70%, and they said Zach Wilson is the number two. By the way, would you put Zach Wilson, like we have this whole list, would you put Zach Wilson in the in the mix for next year somehow?
Starting point is 00:53:07 He has to be, right? He's on a rookie deal. They're not going to cut him. He's not costing him that much. But they could trade him. They could just start over and get rid of him for a third round or a fourth round. That's a whole other bucket. Are the Raiders going to keep Carr?
Starting point is 00:53:19 They just signed him to a deal this last offseason, and he makes $100 million. Are the Raiders looking to keep Derek Carr? And if you're the Giants or the Jets, and I don't know if Derek Carr works in the New York market. I don't know if that's a fit. But if you're Tampa, if you're Carolina, is Derek Carr a guy you're going to trade a first round or second round pick for, potentially?
Starting point is 00:53:39 We mentioned Brady. Wait, can we hold on Derek Carr for a second? Yeah. I just think he's been bad this year. He has. And it doesn't work. He's been bad. Look, that Thursday night game last week, and I, you know, everyone... That was bad. Here's the other thing. It's like, McDaniels didn't
Starting point is 00:53:53 trust him enough to just go out and run an offense. Everything was so looking at the sideline, deliberate, and then that move that he did on that third and one where Carr just like, you know, just hurries up to the line and does it. That's a very New England, Josh McDaniels thing where it's like, all right, we got the nine yards, just go get the first down. But that didn't make sense in the time
Starting point is 00:54:13 of the game when you're trying to kill clock and to lose to the Rams in that fashion. I just don't know if McDaniels and Derek Carr is a long-term fit. They don't seem like they trust him. No, they don't. His last seven games, it's 11 touchdowns, nine picks, and he's thrown for basically like 220 yards a game, something like that. But I'm just not
Starting point is 00:54:37 a fan of him if he doesn't... If there's any sort of duress, it just seems like he's a different guy, right? Now you could say that about, how many quarterbacks could you say, well, if you block for him, he could be pretty good. I mean, congratulations. But if you're going to pay somebody
Starting point is 00:54:53 $30 million a year, I would expect them to be good, like no matter what the condition of their offensive line is. And I just don't see it with him. I think he had a nice little moment last year, but I don't know. Am I excited? Like I got Derek Carr next year. I think he had a nice little moment last year. But I don't know. If I'm Tampa, am I excited? Like I got Derek Carr next year.
Starting point is 00:55:08 I'm not excited about that. All right. You look at those scenes, like Washington. Like Derek Carr in Washington. Like that's the kind of move that they would make. Indianapolis. Derek Carr makes a lot of sense. Well, for Indianapolis, he'd be better.
Starting point is 00:55:20 Yeah. Once you're talking about guys like, you know, the Matt Ryan types, like he's better than that. But I just, I don't think he's long for that one. I could see. So the bigger question to me is the Lamar piece of this. Because somebody can just come in over the top, right? With a big offer if they don't put that QB tag on them.
Starting point is 00:55:42 They can put the franchise tag on, which they can. Yeah. I don't know if that's a great idea for the Raven put the franchise tag on, which they can. Which, yeah. I don't know if that's a great idea for the Ravens. I think it's a good idea for the Ravens. I don't know if Lamar would be kicking and screaming. For the Ravens, it's average for one year. But that's what I mean.
Starting point is 00:55:56 If they do that, he's just going to be like, great, I'm holding out. Fuck you. Very possible. So could it be a situation where somebody can't, like the Raiders, some weird team comes in with some massive offer. And then the Ravens look at it and go, oh, we can actually get assets for him.
Starting point is 00:56:11 We don't have to pay him all this money. And we let him move on. I don't know. There's a durability question with him that I think we have to consider now. Yeah. I think it's going to be an interesting final few weeks in playoffs. If it's this, then it's like, all right, here we go. Another year, didn't finish a season. But I don't know. I think they built their entire offense, their entire franchise around him, not the style of quarterback. I think they built it around him. They're so- So why didn't they pay him last August then?
Starting point is 00:56:38 I think they tried to. Lamar wanted to roll this thing out. They tried paying him and Lamar wanted to roll the dice. And he saw the money that Watson got. He saw the money that Kyler Murray got. And he was like, I'm riding this thing out. I'm going to play it all the way to the end. You know what? It's like the Gobert trade.
Starting point is 00:56:53 It's like how the Gobert trade screwed up the Kevin Durant market. Because the Nets were like, well, we have to get what Gobert got. Absolutely. And it was the same thing with Watson. And then you remember all the owners were upset
Starting point is 00:57:04 because they said, whoa, whoa, whoa. And not only are you paying him that all guaranteed, you're paying that guy based on what he's got going on. And that contract was a car crash as it was happening. And now it's like 17 times worse. And it just feels like everyone will be gone next year. It's like a complete reset button. It was interesting watching
Starting point is 00:57:38 the game when he got hurt. I didn't know if that was good or bad for the Pats because I was so worried about him scrambling around. But on the other hand, I think they play better with McCoy, but McCoy turned out to be a good matchup for the Pats defense. So he won't be back. This is the worst possible timing for that injury, right? Even if he's coming back, it's like Nick season near end of season. Yeah. What does that do for them? Nothing. It hurts. That NFC West quarterback lineup right now
Starting point is 00:58:05 is Baker Mayfield as the fourth quarterback in LA, Geno Smith as a veteran who's won a few games this year. Another free agent. He's also a free agent. I actually think Geno comes back to Seattle on a shorter deal, like on a Trubisky-ish deal, but I think they bring him back. But what if they get the third pick in the draft? They might.
Starting point is 00:58:23 What if they get the second pick in the draft? I might. What if they get the second pick in the draft? I think you still bring back Geno, and then you say, okay, we don't have to throw this guy under center right away. But with Kyler, I mean, you saw the unfortunate news. Their GM stepped away yesterday. I think this is the nadir of Arizona Cardinals football, and there's been some really dark years
Starting point is 00:58:43 over the last two decades, but this is brutal. It's bleak. Did it pave the way now for Brady and Cliff to have their reunion in New England with Cliff as the OC? When we had that conversation, obviously people were chiming in on Twitter, but I get texts from around the league. Someone was like,
Starting point is 00:58:58 you guys didn't mention the Giants as a possibility. I said, oh, now listen, I was thinking Jets, and they're like, he would never do that to Kraft. He would never go in the division. But like, Giants for one year. Oh, that's such a fuck you to the Pats fans though. We hate the Giants. Two Super Bowl losses. I get it, but that's
Starting point is 00:59:13 like, we didn't even talk about the Giants. Daniel Jones is a free agent. Does Brady consider that? And it's like one of these blue blood franchises. It's New York City. We're just doing this in December now, but Brady, I would tell you, is probably not coming back to Tampa. And New England did make a lot of sense, but I don't think the Giants is that crazy either.
Starting point is 00:59:31 Brady's another one that if he doesn't have the offensive line, what are we doing? He just can't move at all anymore and they can't block for him. Tampa is one of the ones, it's one of the most obvious picks of the year the Bengals they gave us the hook it's Bengals by three and a half but I just think Tampa they're one nine and one against the spread the last 11 games the only one they won was that game on
Starting point is 00:59:56 foreign soil against Seattle when they just that was when we realized Seattle's defense sucked we didn't fully realize it took a couple weeks later I think Tampa is one of the six or seven worst teams in the league. They're still being treated like it's going to the on-off switch is going to go on.
Starting point is 01:00:11 I just don't see it. I don't think it's going to happen. I think it's more realistic that they could go 6-11 than it is that they win the division. I don't see a button for them. They have Cincinnati at home, at Arizona, home Carolina, and at Atlanta. And you would say, well, they add Arizona. That's the easy one.
Starting point is 01:00:33 Those are two bad teams. Anything could happen in that game. So I don't know. It could very easily be three and one though, right? And then Brady's hosting a playoff game and here we go again. We got to will ourselves to be doing the Brady thing that division's so putrid and so bad now we got Ritter going in for Atlanta and who knows what I mean
Starting point is 01:00:51 New Orleans what are you hearing about Ritter Ritter was that guy that everyone in the draft absolutely loved like off the field leader and all that stuff and they've been waiting
Starting point is 01:00:58 for him to get that opportunity and off the bye he's in but I don't know if you know at this point I don't know if he's leading this team to the playoffs right now
Starting point is 01:01:04 that was one of the games I had marked. The Falcons are plus four and a half against the Saints. The Saints have lost six of their last eight. They're four and nine for the year. They have a terrible coaching situation. Their quarterback situation is among the worst. And then
Starting point is 01:01:20 you have Atlanta. They've lost five of their last seven. Their two wins were the DJ Moore-Helmick game. Yep. And they beat Chicago by three in a game that Justin Fields had the big run and then threw the pick. But Atlanta's looking at New Orleans this week, at Baltimore next week, and then Arizona-Tampa at home.
Starting point is 01:01:37 I don't know. I don't see it. What team out of the four NFC South teams, what team do you think is the most convinced that they can steal the division? Because it's definitely not Tampa. Tampa can't be like, this is good. It's got to be Carolina, right? They've got all the vibes going on. And last week going and playing Seattle
Starting point is 01:01:53 and getting that win, I know that building's buzzing right now. They see a light. They see a way to get there. And they believe in their head coach and their quarterback. So Carolina's young, good. They've been through so much shit this year that they think somehow we ended up on the other side of this thing. And they're really good in the division.
Starting point is 01:02:09 They win those games in the division. So they feel like they can beat Carolina. They could beat Atlanta. They can beat Tampa. They could beat New Orleans. That's my favorite game of the week. So they're minus two and a half. I've watched a bunch of their games,
Starting point is 01:02:26 including the last couple, and they know who they are now. Like I, the ball at this point in mid December, it's like, I like when teams know who they are and they fucking know who they are. They ran 46 times for one 85 and week 13, 10 first downs rushing.
Starting point is 01:02:38 And then last week, 46 for two 23, 14 first downs rushing. And you have, they're playing Pittsburgh. It might be Trubisky or Kenny Pickett coming up with a concussion. No, it might be Mason Rudolph. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:02:51 So you have that. Watts, they should probably shut down. There's been some articles in Pittsburgh. He's got, came off the pick, which wasn't 100%. Apparently had a secret arthroscopic knee surgery. And now he's got some secret rib issue. And watching, that was the only million-dollar pick we lost last week.
Starting point is 01:03:10 He was non-existent in the game. They were right there, though, to the end. They were right there. But Trubisky killed him. But last week, they gave up 42 for 215, rushing to Baltimore. They gave up 12 first downs. It was J.K. Dobbins, who looked like he was running on one leg. He had 12 first downs. It was J.K. Dobbins who looked like he was running on one leg.
Starting point is 01:03:25 He doesn't look healthy. And Gus Edwards and second and third string Ravens QB and they couldn't stop anybody. All they had to do was get one stop and they still could have
Starting point is 01:03:34 stolen the game. So to me, this just looks like why wouldn't Carolina just completely run the ball over? The other thing with Carolina, fourth in defensive DVOA since week 10.
Starting point is 01:03:45 And you can see it in the game. They're actually pretty active. They have a pass rush. They have a couple good D-backs. Horn's been really good for them. Horn's been good. Defensive coach. I just don't think they're a 5-8 team.
Starting point is 01:03:54 I think they're being treated spread-wise like they're a 5-8 team, but I don't think they're a 5-8 team. Did you put anything down before this season, NFC South Carolina? I know you were high on it. I did. I had them at 9-1. 9-1, that's a good... But I mean, five weeks ago it was 35-1. Did you double
Starting point is 01:04:10 down? I did not. Well, it was Baker Mayfield was still there. The Darnold thing, I said to Sal on Saturday night, he had that interview after the game when they were saying, what's going on? He's like, hey, man, run the ball. That's what we do. We run the ball. And I'm like, that's it, Sam.
Starting point is 01:04:25 You just, you don't fucking forget that. But he'll have the two scrambles. It's not bad. He's, you know, he's, he can throw like three good long ones, which Mariota can't do. He'll throw two that the other team can maybe grab. Maybe not.
Starting point is 01:04:39 They'll drive, basically the two of, but he'll move around. He's mobile. Anyway, what were you going to say about QBs? I was going to say QBs, the biggest wildcard, and I haven't had a chance to listen to it yet. I know Ryan interviewed him on his podcast, but the biggest wildcard to me is wherever Sean Payton ends up if he goes back into coaching because he's going to want a quarterback. I talk to Sean every Sunday and it's like he watches the game. If anything, I think it's fascinating. This is his
Starting point is 01:05:02 one year sabbatical. We sit at Fox in LA, and you have this thing called the Green Room, which is also known in Fox as the Avocado Room. And you watch all the games, and you're sitting there with Howie Long and Michael Strahan and Michael Vick and Charles Woodson. And it's like a sports bar, but it's all these guys. And Sean Payton is so dialed in. He's got all 12 games on. He's watching each one.
Starting point is 01:05:23 He's got his comments. And I think if he comes back, wherever it is, I think he's not coming back to have some project at quarterback. He's going to want one of the guys. And whether that's one of the free agents we mentioned or they trade for somebody, I think it's going to be fascinating to see where he goes. And that could be the biggest wild card quarterback-wise in the free agent market. What is his deal with the Saints? Could he just go coach another team or would there be compensation? I think there would be compensation.
Starting point is 01:05:49 He's still under contract technically with the Saints. I might be talking out of school a little bit because I'm not sure all the details, but I don't think it would be as easy as, hey, I'm just going to pick another team. It'd just be like, hey, we've hired Sean Payton. The Saints are still going to be like, what's happening? If he was to go back to New Orleans with Jeff Duncan,
Starting point is 01:06:03 who's the lead beat reporter in New Orleans, said last week, and that doesn't come from Sean. I don't know that. If he does go back to New Orleans with Jeff Duncan, who's the lead beat reporter in New Orleans, said last week, and that doesn't come from Sean, I don't know that. If he does go back to New Orleans, I think it's as easy as, hey, I'm back, and he's already under contract. And last year he didn't get paid, but I think they would work out a deal. But the problem is they bankrupted that team to try to win the Super Bowl the last few years. Their cap situation's awful.
Starting point is 01:06:23 They don't have their first-round pick this year. If I'm him, you just have to look at the Chargers. The Chargers are one of the games I like this week. They're 7-6. You could make a case. They got Tennessee home at Indy, home Rams at Denver, that they could just
Starting point is 01:06:39 be 11-6. It'd be a five seed. Absolutely. Everything would be fine, and Brandon Staley won't be in trouble and all that. But if they fucking blow this, that would be the, if I'm Sean Payton, I'm just looking around. I'm like,
Starting point is 01:06:51 Oh, I could have Herbert and be in LA done. Sign me up. And if you're the chargers, you have an identity. You have Sean Payton and, and, and Herbert.
Starting point is 01:06:59 And that's the thing. Like you talk about quarterbacks all you want. We could do flips about Garoppolo or Gino Smith and Tom Brady, or even Lamar. Justin Herbert's in a different deal for especially a guy like Peyton who wants to throw the ball. So I think that would be a really intriguing opportunity for him. I don't know if Staley's on the rock. I think if they lose out, obviously that's a hot seat and everything to watch.
Starting point is 01:07:19 But from what I gather, I don't know if that group is looking to blow everybody out at the end of the season. I feel like they think they're going to make the playoffs, and I'm not sure that spot's going to be available. It's interesting to look back at their season, because it's 7-6, and it feels disappointing, right? But then you look at some of the losses. That KC game week two, they easily could have won. That was the game Herbert got hurt. The Amazon debut, yes. Right.
Starting point is 01:07:44 They get killed by Jacksonville the next week. But Herbert probably had cracked ribs or something going on, right? They lose to Seattle at home in just a weird game where Seattle played great and whatever.
Starting point is 01:07:59 I'm not going to throw it at them. No, but is the Houston game in there? Because you remember, Houston, they beat. But they were up huge on Houston. And you and I, we had Chargers in this one, and all of a sudden, Houston comes. Yeah, now all of a sudden, Houston's like winning, right? And we're like, how is that happening? That's what they do.
Starting point is 01:08:13 Each week, it seemed like they had another big injury. They lost to San Francisco by six and Casey by three. They lost to Las Vegas in week 13, but no Mike Williams in that game and they're still missing dudes. No, but they were up 10-0. No, they were. But last week was the first week.
Starting point is 01:08:29 It felt like they had most of their team. Yep. And it looks like Herbert, looks like Herbert again. Hey, in the fourth quarter, he's got that third and three. He hits Allen. Third and seven hits Allen.
Starting point is 01:08:40 Second and seven. And you guys laugh about Collinsworth and, you know, Tirico was falling off his chair. That's a seed! I was like, these guys, they love watching Herbert. You know, and look,
Starting point is 01:08:51 I've done this too many times over the last few years where they get a big win and they play clutch in the fourth quarter and we're like, the Chargers made a statement. They're back. I know.
Starting point is 01:09:00 And then the following week. So Titans come in here fresh off, firing their GM and three straight losses. Derek Henry, you know, who usually owns the Jaguars, has a big game, but they still lose by 20 to Jacksonville at home. There is no excuse to lose the Titans. And yet, if we were here Monday morning or Sunday night when you're with Sal, would you be the slightest bit surprised if it was 27-24 Titans? No. And I think that's why the line hasn't moved. The Chargers are favored by three and it's been pretty steady. And if you look's why the line hasn't moved. The Chargers are favored by three
Starting point is 01:09:25 and it's been pretty steady. And if you look at the money on the different sites, some sites it's like 80% Chargers money. Fandle, it's like 65% Chargers money, but the line hasn't moved. It's Chargers minus three and it just will not move. And I think the reason is because I think Tennessee has rightfully earned fear with people who have gone against them and all of a sudden Tennessee's winning. They're like, what the fuck is happening? Why am I not winning?
Starting point is 01:09:54 How is this Tennessee team doing this again? I think the difference is, so last four weeks, they're 31st and past DVOA. And the only reason I looked that up was because watching the games, it just seems like everybody's throwing them than that. Now, they don't have the Nico Autry, and he's
Starting point is 01:10:11 questionable to play this week. But it just seems like everybody finally realized, let's throw in these guys. And the reason I'm bringing that up is that's what the Chargers, I think, that's who they are right now, especially the Williams and Allen back. I think it's a bad matchup for Tennessee. Their last nine weeks, points scored 21, 19, 17, 17, 17, 27, 16, 10, 22.
Starting point is 01:10:35 They're just not explosive enough, right? So for them to win a game like this, it's got to be that ugly 19 to 13 type game. I think the Chargers are too explosive now. They had 23 last week. It felt like a bigger game than that, didn't it? Yeah, and they put the game away, and then they scored late the Dolphins to cut the lead.
Starting point is 01:10:53 But that one, once they had that long fourth quarter drive, it was over. And Allen and Williams being healthy is such a huge asset. Yeah, they're tough. It was enormous. Now, their defensive backfield is completely riddled and they were down big and they had a great scheme
Starting point is 01:11:08 against Miami where they're going to press Tyreek Hill and they're going to press Waddle and they're going to follow those guys. They only beat them once and it was on Mike Davis, 43. He got tripped up and then they hit Tyreek deep.
Starting point is 01:11:19 But they schemed themselves to that win. They're hurt on defense all over the place. Yeah. I liked how they played. Tennessee, the ones, They schemed themselves to that win. They're hurt on defense all over the place. Yeah. I liked how they played. Tennessee, the ones, and it's probably a stay away, but if Autry gets scratched and Burks, if he doesn't play again, because they really have missed Burks.
Starting point is 01:11:36 And Burks, you could feel in the Philly game, he made that huge touchdown. A whole wind out of their sails. Yeah, without him, they're not scary. They don't have a single receiver who's going to do anything downfield. So their tight end, that backup tight end has become their deep threat. The rookie, he's good. Listen, it's fantasy playoffs this week,
Starting point is 01:11:53 and that guy's starting for teams in fantasy. Wait, last thing on the quarterbacks. We mentioned everybody. So we think Seattle's keeping Geno? I think so. This is based on Pete's love for Gino Smith and the fact that he's a great veteran to have either way, whether he's starting or he's your number two.
Starting point is 01:12:12 They'll keep him. If Heineke makes the playoffs, he probably keeps his job. I think. I don't know, but I wouldn't be, you know, it's like you look at Washington. Do they see him as the future of the franchise? It's a great story,
Starting point is 01:12:24 but there's still that bias against guys who just are not the highly drafted guys and they're certainly not having all the physical tools, but they love him. And we both think Brady's playing next year. I think Brady's playing. I would bet a lot of money on it.
Starting point is 01:12:40 I would. I really think New England's a possibility. I know people think I'm crazy, but I know there's been combos. What kind of feedback did you get on the Manning cast when you said that on ESPN2? Was there a lot of text coming through? Same kind of...
Starting point is 01:12:57 No one saying, that's outrageous. Nobody who would know anything saying, that's insane, he would never go back. I think there's a feeling that it's not insane. You were good on that. You were good. Thank you. Joe Burrow did you a solid there.
Starting point is 01:13:12 That was a nice opening act. Following Joe Burrow was great. That's what you got to do. Couple more games just from a million dollar pick standpoint. Underdog Parlay. Okay. Falcons plus one 84 over the saints. I like the one 84 more than the plus four and a half,
Starting point is 01:13:32 because to me it's like, if Ritter's good or decent, I do think they could beat the saints. Yeah. Um, I love the Falcons running game. I like all of the running backs. Um,
Starting point is 01:13:44 and I think Marietta really hurt them. Like I test, Falcons running game. I like all of their running backs. I think Mariotta really hurt them. I test, just watch them week to week. Once it was third and whatever, they just couldn't complete third downs with him unless they were running it. That Thursday night game against Carolina in my head where he's throwing. It's like, you're a veteran. You can't be doing that. You can't be fumbling.
Starting point is 01:14:02 Can I tell you the one Ritter story that I love that I have in mind? Okay. So Senior Bowl, which is like the two worst teams are the coaching staffs and they go out there and they roll the ball out and you get all these guys. And I get so much good information coming out of the Senior Bowl because all those seniors are with these coaching staffs and the coaches are like, we're probably not drafting this guy, but here's what you should know about him. The Jets coaches told me this one, that they were in the Senior Bowl, and it's like the end of the game. No one's watching.
Starting point is 01:14:29 It's over, whatever. And Desmond Ritter's their quarterback, and he's been great all week. The Pied Piper of the team, everyone's following him everywhere he goes. And Desmond Ritter goes up and down the sidelines like he's Michael Strahan in the Super Bowl against the Patriots. And he's like, we're winning this game. We're winning this game. I'm taking us on this drive.
Starting point is 01:14:46 And the Jets coaches are like, who the hell is this guy? And what did Desmond Ritter do? They all got jacked up and took him right down the field. It sounds like our guy Purdy. It sounds like Brock Purdy, right? But does that translate to Sunday against the Saints? I don't know, but I do know this. He's waited all season.
Starting point is 01:15:02 He's been with this team all season. And they spent the entire bye week with him as their guy. And he's now with the number ones. I got it. And then Mariota took off. He was like a jilted lover. What happened there? I think Mariota.
Starting point is 01:15:14 No, I think his wife gave birth. And everyone's like reporting this as if he ran away. I think he had a kid. Oh, is that true? They get that out there. It seemed like he just left. I don't know if that's out there publicly. That's what I've been told.
Starting point is 01:15:25 So let's give him a little slack. So underdog parlay, Falcons plus 184. Are you intrigued? Yeah, a lot. And then Colts plus 172 in Minnesota. Stay away? Yeah, come on. I know we're down on Minnesota.
Starting point is 01:15:43 I know. And Donatello's defense has given up like 400 yards the past four weeks. It's incredible. Since week eight, Indy is 29th in DVOA and Minnesota is 26th. Gosh, did we not set the stage perfectly last week? We did 20 minutes on why we can't trust the Vikings. And we got so many tweets, both of us, from Vikings fans being like, we're going to...
Starting point is 01:16:03 Yeah. Sometimes. It's pretty rough. A couple other underdog possibilities. We have the Jaguars, who I don't trust and I don't want to put in the underdog parlay, but let's talk it out. Plus 172 against Dallas. Wow.
Starting point is 01:16:20 Should we? It's intriguing. All right, let's set the stage. I do like them more as an underdog versus them minus three and a half against a team they should beat. That's what I don't want to take the Jags. Totally. It's like, oh, could you get a little frisky? The reason to do it, I think, is
Starting point is 01:16:35 there has been some ceiling stuff with them. They'll look really good for like an hour and a half, and I don't know what's going on with Dak. Lawrence looks great. Dak did not look great until the final drive. Micah Parsons last week had no sacks, no tackles for a loss, no nothing. He was quiet. It's the first time we've seen him have a play. Some secondary injuries for Dallas. Secondary injuries. Kirst got hurt in the pregame. Here's the, this is why I'm not so lack or some of these other guys who are so good with the
Starting point is 01:17:03 numbers. Here's the stuff that I can offer. We're going to be watching France, Argentina. Okay. And that's on Fox. Then it's bleeding into the early one o'clock window. Do you know where the Fox A crew is this weekend? You know where they sent Burkhard Olsen and Aaron Andrews to Jacksonville? Oh, wow. National broadcast game. Okay. So if I'm the Jaguars, I'm like, we're never the team that's in front of the national broadcast audience. we're never the team that's in front of the national broadcast audience. We're never the team that gets that window. Going to have a huge audience off of this messy Mbappe matchup. Let's go out and have some fun. Let's go up and shock the Cowboys. Cowboys, they're always on big games. They're always ready to go. They always look at it as,
Starting point is 01:17:40 we're the national team. If you're the Jaguars, this is the first time. I think last year, week one, Saints played the Packers in Jacksonville. It didn't involve the Jaguars. There was a Super Bowl on Fox, which the Eagles and the Patriots didn't involve the Jaguars. I have no recollection of the Fox number one team ever being sent to Jacksonville for a Jaguars game. I don't know if that motivates players. I don't know if your listeners are like, Schrager, just please shut up. No one cares about this stuff. I think of that as a little motivation. People are watching us. We have the number one broadcast game this week. Let's go show out.
Starting point is 01:18:12 Counter. 40,000 Dallas fans there? All Dallas, maybe. I don't know. 50? I don't know. But don't you realize at home that someone in Idaho is watching the Jaguars for the first time? I know. Jaguars last five. They beat Vegas in week nine.
Starting point is 01:18:30 Lost to KC by 10. In a game that was a little closer than that, bye week, beat Baltimore, got killed by Detroit, which seems less terrible than maybe it did in the moment because Detroit's been, at least statistically, a top 17 now for a while.
Starting point is 01:18:46 And then they beat Tennessee pretty handily last week. I don't know what to make of Dallas. I mean, Jacksonville. Probably a stay away. So then that leaves as another underdog possibility, the Giants in Washington. I don't know, man.
Starting point is 01:19:01 Getting a lot of points, and I don't like that one either. They're getting a lot of points and I don't like that one either they're getting it's plus 190 or the game you're doing okay you could do the whole thing where you're like I can't pick that
Starting point is 01:19:17 I'm doing the game I've always wanted to be that guy yeah I'm doing the game I can't used to be Collinsworth and Sims and inside the NFL I can't pick this one guys
Starting point is 01:19:24 I just can't gotta be used to be Collinsworth and Sims and inside the NFL. I can't pick this one, guys. I just can't. It's got to be objective. Dolphins plus 245. And everyone is done with the Dolphins now because they looked bad last week. And Tua just throws three picks up for grabs. But I'm not that sold on Buffalo. No, Buffalo hasn't.
Starting point is 01:19:40 I don't think they've looked good at all. And I think from not having Von Miller anymore, what's the deal with Miami's offensive line? Yeah, so Armstead is literally going out there with scotch tape and putting it together. But you could tell he's not himself with this injury. But it's amazing he's playing. They've got actually the other tackles playing well.
Starting point is 01:20:01 And then one guard is down. The other one's like their offensive line is beat up, and they haven't had Austin Jackson most of the season. So they're putting it together with a little scotch tape here, but I don't think Hunt, from what I gather, is necessarily 100% either. We could talk interior line play if you want, but just in general, they avoided the run game entirely last week
Starting point is 01:20:20 when that would have maybe been the strategy. I just don't know if they trust their offensive line enough. Well, Miami, right. If they're not going to run the ball last week, they're probably not have maybe been the strategy. I just don't know if they trust their offensive line enough. Well, Miami, right. If they're not going to run the ball last week, they're probably not going to run the ball this week, and that's probably how to beat Buffalo. Man, it doesn't look like we have an underdog parlay this week. Unless...
Starting point is 01:20:36 Carolina favored versus Pittsburgh? No, they're not. Carolina is favored. Unless you like Colt McCoy and the Cardinals, plus three in Denver. Are they underdogs to Denver? Yeah, they are. Plus three. Or the Rams, plus 240 against the Packers?
Starting point is 01:20:58 No. All right, I'll figure it out after. What about the fight in Houston Texans? What do they got? Well, they're plus 14 against the Chiefs. They're not winning. What about the fight in Houston Texans? What do they got? Well, they're plus 14 against the chiefs. They're not winning. Um,
Starting point is 01:21:10 the other one is that, that I was thinking for a million dollars, just the, uh, the Eagles are minus nine and minus 400 against the bears. Yeah. And it's going to be like 20 degrees. It's going to be cold, but they're the best team in the league. And the
Starting point is 01:21:25 Bears are either the worst or second worst team in the league. And the Eagles now 16 to ones in play. Jalen Hurts for MVP is in play. And I just, they're, they're too, they're too good in too many different ways offensively. I just don't see a world where it's like, oh my God, they're down 17, seven of the Bears. I was at MetLife last week and Fox had me go and do a sit down with Sirianni before the game. And they come off the bus and it's like, Maialata's six foot eight, 300. And Dominick and Sue's behind him, Lane Johnson, Kelsey. Now everyone's big in the NFL. I get that. They just carry themselves like they are the biggest bullies in the land. And they came into MetLife and it was like they sacked Daniel Jones on the first two out of the three plays. You're like, all right,
Starting point is 01:22:11 this game's over. They're going on the road, of course, but they did this last week on the road. They've gone on the road a bunch this season and won. I think if they could do what they did to the Giants and win by 26 points, I have no doubt they could do that to a Bears team that is riddled with injuries. And I'm not even sure what version of Justin Fields we're getting. The counter would be Chicago's lost six in a row, but they hung tough with Miami. They went toe-to-toe with Dallas for at least three quarters and then it fell apart. They almost beat the Lions, came close against the Falcons, got killed by the Jets.
Starting point is 01:22:44 No shame in that. The Jets are good. And then lost to Green Bay by nine. But yeah, it feels like, if you're the Bears, why are you trying to win this game? Just grab your top three pick. Let's go.
Starting point is 01:22:57 Because they could be in the situation where, you know, they don't need a quarterback. But they could be in that, like, when Miami traded the Trey Lance pick situation. Yeah. Absolutely. Or just get a great defensive, get a great defensive player
Starting point is 01:23:09 in the top five that you can build around. That's also great. You know? Any insight on that Miami Buffalo game that you didn't give us already about just because you're working it?
Starting point is 01:23:16 Anything you learned? Yeah. You know, it's, it's, I'm going to be hopping on the phone with Mike McDaniel and Tua after we record this
Starting point is 01:23:22 and it's Thursday afternoon, but the big story is the weather and whether this team, I mean, quite truly is tough enough and man enough to go up there and play in the weather. They're talking 15 degrees. They're talking snow that could be up to seven feet. 20% chance of snow, right? Well, no, more than that. They're saying- Like 40? Yeah. It's going to be, they're talking snow and then there's 20 mile per hour winds and here i am you know pretty boy in brooklyn trying to you know find my my snow stuff but if you're the dolphins you don't deal with that weather and you're coming up there and mike mcdaniel as you
Starting point is 01:23:54 saw as i'm sure you saw wore the shirt yesterday i want it colder like and he's been answering questions all about this he's trying to lean into it um i'm not sure this team with a banged up offensive line and a running game that's been non-existent if these are the elements but here's the thing even if they somehow make the playoffs or if they win and and they lose in some of the playoffs if they win and they're in the playoffs whatever it is at some point in january they're gonna have to do some sort of gauntlet with Buffalo, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore. Like, sorry, you're in the AFC in this time period. You have to go outside and win in the cold to do anything.
Starting point is 01:24:31 So they're built for September, October, but don't tell them that. They're leaning into it. They like being called soft. They like being told they can't do it. So just the opposite of them kind of blowing it off. They are well aware of what the national narrative is. And let's see if they can shut everyone up. I think it's more realistic that
Starting point is 01:24:48 they miss the playoffs than they make the playoffs. Crazy because after we're going into Thanksgiving, it was like Tua was MVP talk. I don't really love what I'm seeing. I wonder, what do you think their odds are? I'm going to go on Fandle. What do you think their odds are to make the playoffs?
Starting point is 01:25:03 They lost to the Bengals, so they don't have that tiebreaker. They lost to the Jets right now. They don't have that tiebreaker. And then they lost, obviously, to the Chargers last week. Not even on Fandle. Fandle's like, we're out. They don't know. They want to see. They want to see. Chargers, minus 170, yes. Yeah, I think so. I think so. Yeah, that seems like pretty safe. But that's the thing is Tennessee could pop that. We did a thing on Good Morning Football and just because I know you love the 80s, 90s stuff.
Starting point is 01:25:31 Like I did a whole thing today about what that rivalry meant. Like Dolphins, Bills, like Marino and Kelly and all those Brian Cox moments. It has been dormant for two decades because of the Patriots. This is the first time since 1993 where they're playing each other this late in the season and they're in first and second in the division. NFC South division on FanDuel. Tampa still minus 320.
Starting point is 01:25:55 Really? Carolina four to one. Come on. Falcons 13 to one. So let's just talk through this one really fast. The Desmond Ritter Senior Bowl story got you going. A little Desmond Ritter action. But let's say they win this.
Starting point is 01:26:16 They're 6-8 at Baltimore, no Lamar. Home Arizona and then Tampa last week of the season. They almost beat them last time. 8-9 is going to win the NFC South, 13-1. I just can't imagine you shifting your allegiance. We've been all Carolina 15 weeks of the season. They almost beat them last time. 8-9 is going to win the NFC South. 13-1? I just can't imagine you shifting your allegiance. We've been all Carolina 15 weeks of the season. No, I know. I'm just saying over betting Atlanta and underdog parlay, it's almost better to just bet them to win the division at 13-1.
Starting point is 01:26:36 Should we do that? Should that be it? It's a better scenario. I can get behind that. All right, Schrager. Your Giants-Washington prediction was what? I just have no prediction stay away I'm I'm very scared
Starting point is 01:26:48 of that game altogether I have no idea what to expect I think Washington wins but I have no I don't know I'm gonna see there's a bet on FanDuel
Starting point is 01:26:54 yeah what is it Washington Giants tie first half okay Washington wins the game and it's 16 to 1
Starting point is 01:27:04 that is and I think we're gonna throw in a million picks because I want to root for a tie in the first half. There has never been a bet that is more up your alley than a tie in the first half. And us with 30 seconds left in the second quarter, screaming for a team to call a timeout. So guess who tied in the first half two weeks ago? Washington and the Giants. Hey, one thing on that game. They get back Chase Young. They get back a couple other guys.
Starting point is 01:27:28 They're off the bye. I feel like Washington's fresh. And I don't know. Giants last week. Pretty listless. Plus, Barkley, it looks. Are we going to find out afterwards that he's got like a torn rotator cuff or something? That dude's in the final year of his contract.
Starting point is 01:27:42 He isn't missing crap. He's playing. Yeah. All right. Shregs, good to see you. Good luck this weekend on the sideline. Give us some sort of shout out. Yeah. Should I do a Carol Burnett? Should I tug my ear for the readers and the listeners? Or should I go with let's go? I mean, we got to think of something that I can do that Saturday night on NFL Network. You're like, oh, that's what Schrager looks like. I've been annoyed by his takes all year. No, we're back, baby. We're
Starting point is 01:28:05 eating for Million Dollar Picks. We're back. All right. Good to see you, buddy. Thank you, Bill. Million Dollar Picks, week 15. We're back, baby. We are back. We won $2.9 million last week. Our first really, really big week of the season. I'm seeing it. I'm seeing the field. I'm like Joe Burrow right now. I'm just, I'm throwing dimes. I'm seeing the coverage. I'm doing the check downs.
Starting point is 01:28:31 I got it. Down 194,000 for the season. And we're going to be positive after today. One of the reasons I feel like Joe Burrow, I'm seeing the landmines. I'm seeing that safety shading over the wide receiver. That's the Chargers-Titans game. Man, the Chargers look tasty. Chargers minus three. Titans kind of reeling. Why is the line only three? I'm staying away. Same thing for Washington. I liked Washington.
Starting point is 01:29:00 Why are they favored by four and a half? Are too many people on Washington? I'm staying away. I only like three games this week. First one, the Carolina Panthers. They've been good to us for the last couple of weeks. They can run the hell out of the ball. Last two weeks, 46 for 185 rushing and 46 for 223 rushing. This is what they do. They run the ball. Guess who hasn't stopped the run lately? The Steelers. They give up 42 for 215 against the Ravens. J.K. Dobbins on one leg. No Lamar Jackson. What the hell was that?
Starting point is 01:29:35 I think this Steelers season is over. I don't think T.J. Watt's healthy. Najee Harris is hurt. Friar Moose hurt. We'll see if they play. Carolina's only laying two and a half at home. They can run the slate and they can win the NFC South. They got Pittsburgh this week.
Starting point is 01:29:49 They got the Lions next week at Tampa, home New Orleans. I think they win three of those four. I think they go eight and nine. I think they win the NFC South. I think they cover this week. We're betting $1 million on the Panthers minus two and a half over Pittsburgh. Second game. I'm in on Desmond Ritter.
Starting point is 01:30:10 I've been in on him since the draft. I think Mariota was killing the Falcons the last few weeks. Now you have Atlanta in New Orleans. They're getting four and a half. I feel like this should be a three-point game. What the hell is so good about the Saints? You look at the Saints, they have lost six of their last eight. One of them was they just killed Las Vegas, and the other was they beat the Rams by seven. Congratulations. They're still kind of lingering in the NFC South, but not really. Four and nine. Had one of the worst losses of the year against Tampa. Atlanta can run the hell out of the ball. That's what they do. But Mary Hoda was so bad that teams were just loading
Starting point is 01:30:46 up on that and they had no plan B. I like this Desmond Ritter situation. I love the Falcons plus four and a half. I think this is a three-point game. I think they can go into New Orleans and win. We're betting $900,000 on that. I'll explain why later. The last game is a parlay. We've been avoiding parlays. We've been doing straight up picks. That's one of the reasons that we've been doing well. But you have the Bengals in Tampa laying three and a half and that extra half point scares me. This game looks too obvious. That also scares me. I just want the Bengals to win. The Bengals are better than Tampa. Tampa is hot garbage. They're one nine and one against the spread in the last 11 games. Game after game, they fall behind and they either come back or they get blown out.
Starting point is 01:31:29 I just don't think they're good. I think Tampa is a bad football team. I think they're one of the seven worst teams in the league. And I think Cincinnati is one of the best five or six. So all I need Cincinnati to do is just win this game in Tampa because I'm parlaying them with the Philadelphia Eagles, the best team in the league, a team that is going to go 16 and one, a team that is going to win Jalen Hurts, the MVP.
Starting point is 01:31:49 They're in Chicago. They're nine point favorites. We're just grabbing the money line, minus 400, putting that with the Bengals money line, which is around 195, putting that together minus 114. We're betting $900,000 on that. Bengals and Eagles both have to win. Those are our three big bets. Then we got two more. Underdog Parlay. Falcons mentioned them before. I wanted to save a little 50K for the Underdog Parlay. Put them with the Jaguars, plus four and a half. You heard Ruiz and Solak talk about before how great Trevor Lawrence has been. I know he's a little banged up, but he's going against Dallas. Dallas has not looked that good the last couple weeks. Falcons-Jags put them together. That's plus 639.
Starting point is 01:32:28 We're putting 50K on that. And then last but not least, one of the dumbest and yet one of the most fun bets in the history of million-dollar picks. There's a parlay you can do on Fando, which we did last week. We won with San Francisco
Starting point is 01:32:43 to win the first half against Tampa and with San Francisco to win the first half against Tampa and then San Francisco to win the game. And that was like around even odds. It was plus 115. Great. This week, we're going to tackle the Washington Giants game. This is really stupid, but it happened two weeks ago. We're going to bet on Washington and the Giants to tie in the first half. They're going to tie. The score might be 3-3. It might be 6-6, 10-10. They're going to tie.
Starting point is 01:33:09 Nobody's going to have to win the first half. And then Washington is going to win the game. 16-1 odds on FanDuel. Tie first half. Washington wins the second half. What is going to be more fun than rooting for a tie in this terrible Sunday night game that's going to be 3-3 at halftime and we'll be rooting for it? 16-1 odds, putting 50K on that.
Starting point is 01:33:30 And those are the Million Dollar Picks for week 15. All right, as promised, Malik Monk in Detroit. He's on a road trip and the Kings were nice enough to let me grab some time with them. So here it is. All right, my guy Malik is here. We're taping this. It is a Thursday afternoon. He just arrived in Detroit.
Starting point is 01:33:56 The Light the Beam Kings won a big game in Toronto last night. I was watching. The road trip would not have been off to a good start with the third straight loss. I was starting to get a little worried, but you guys stepped up.
Starting point is 01:34:06 Yeah, man, that was a big point in the conversation, man. We can't lose three in a row, especially on the road trip, man. We can't lose three in a row going to another tough spot here in Detroit, too, man. They always play great at home, so we definitely had to get that one last night. Yeah, because you guys were in this spot where I was starting to take you seriously as a playoff team, right? And then like around the country, people are like,
Starting point is 01:34:33 oh, this isn't like a cute thing. We're now past 25 games. The Kings are good. Like, where are they? Could they be a top six team? And so then you go on this road trip, you kind of have to prove it. Teams are looking at
Starting point is 01:34:45 you a little differently. They're not thinking it's the same old Sacramento anymore. I'm a Celtic fan. You guys have been my West Coast team this year, just watching on TV because for whatever reason, the pieces just fit. And it's just, it's a team that makes sense. Everybody knows their roles already. I saw you guys in person when you played the Clippers. When did you know something was happening here? Because you signed there this summer, but when did you see all the pieces and were like, oh shit, we might actually be pretty good?
Starting point is 01:35:16 I seen the pieces when me and Kev signed, actually. I knew it would be a great match as soon as me and Kev signed, having Fox and Sabonis and us two spacing the floor for them. So, yeah, man, I knew early. Okay, good. Because the over-under in Vegas for you guys was like 35 wins. And we were saying when we were doing our preseason podcast,
Starting point is 01:35:42 we were like, the Kings are going to be good. That seems like they're going to be at least 500. But I think you've been better than that. You personally. So in high school, you're like a top 10 recruit in the country, right? You go to Kentucky. That's like the school to go to. Good year. Go into the league. Charlotte, that's a weird team. There's a lot of redundancy in the positions. It never quite happens there. You end up on the Lakers. Also a pretty weird situation. And it feels like this is the first year you've been on the right team that kind of gets who you are
Starting point is 01:36:18 and what you do. Is that fair? Kind of a little bit. The Lakers let me be me as much as they can while we had Russ. Yeah. Of course. But yeah, man, Mike just told me to go out there and be myself, and he never tried to take anything away from me.
Starting point is 01:36:35 So what is its situation with guys like you? Because you're such a good scorer, and you have the ability to just heat up at any time. And you have these moments where it's like, like yesterday in Toronto, where it's like, all right, Oh, here we go. He's, he's feeling it. This can be like a little three minute stretch. Why is it so hard for guys like that to find the right teams? Cause I would just think that would translate to any team. Yeah. Um, you go, you go into a team where it's already orchestrated, where the team is, they got their first five and they got two or three bench guys that's coming off and you're not involved in that. Right.
Starting point is 01:37:15 Then some of the instances you get hurt, somebody else playing better than you, then you got to work your way back. But yeah, man, it's just situations, man. And being out there on the court and actually just getting reps will make everybody, well, just me, it made me more comfortable and it made me the player I am, actually. I've been like this, but like you said, just I needed the situation and I needed a chance to just go out there and prove what I could do. Well, one of the things with you is I like when you have the ball. You're not a point guard, but you're one of those guys that, you know, Jordan Clarkson's like this. There's some dudes that they're shooters, but it's actually you can kind of create and run offense for them.
Starting point is 01:37:57 And like on the Lakers last year, even though you were putting up stats, but there was a lot of times where it was like, hey, go stand over there. And these guys are going to do stuff. And I don't feel like you're a stand over there guy. It seems like the key for you to succeed. This is what I think the Kings have done so well. The ball moves. People are moving. People are cutting. People are getting open. It's not one of those, you guys stand over here as this one guy dribbles team, which is a really hard place to be. I think Sabonis is the key to that. He's such a unique asset, right?
Starting point is 01:38:27 He's so much fun to play with. So unselfish, man, as a big. And sometimes he's too unselfish. And I think that we all feed off of that. Fox is unselfish, of course. We all just want the same thing, man. And that's winning basketball games. Kev might go off one night.
Starting point is 01:38:44 HB might go off one night. TD might go off one night. HB might go off one night. TD might go off one night. I might go off. Domas gonna do it. Fox gonna do what he do man. We're just a perfect mix. It's pretty good and also Herter. I don't know how they got Herter.
Starting point is 01:39:00 Atlanta, I don't know. They just had a lot of guys and they're like yeah alright we'll save some money. We'll trade Herter. It's like, Herter's a playoff guy. Why are you trading him? That guy could be in a playoff series. Care my dog, man. I love care.
Starting point is 01:39:12 Yeah. Well, what are you going to do about the headband with him, though? At some point, you got to have a serious talk with him, right? That's a care question, man. You got to ask him that. Maybe one night at like 11 o'clock, you're just like, hey, man, can we talk about maybe for the playoffs, maybe a different kind of look? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:39:32 So going backwards, you're on this Kentucky team. Then now look at all the guys from that team. I mean, it's like going backwards. It's one of those rosters. You look at it like, Jesus. Yeah. Oh, my God. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:39:48 Me, Bam, Fox. Who else we had? Briscoe. He's doing his thing overseas. I mean, shit, Bam. Nobody knew Bam was going to turn into. Did you know that in college? Did you see this NBA version of him?
Starting point is 01:40:02 Yeah, of course. We all had to sacrifice something when we went to Kentucky. Yeah. I had to sacrifice not having a ball, not bringing a ball up because my whole career, I mean, my whole high school career, I was having a ball in my hand, bringing a ball up, playing a point guard. And I had to get it up to Fox to run off screens.
Starting point is 01:40:22 And Bam had to give everything else up to, to set screens and, and just catch the ball and post up, man. We all, we all had a lot of stuff that, that we had to sacrifice to, to, to work,
Starting point is 01:40:32 to make Kentucky work. And I mean, it's, it's working out for us. So you got two of you guys are back together, but then I remember you played, you played Miami at some point this season. And I was thinking like,
Starting point is 01:40:43 Oh, this is cool. These guys, I was like when the guys who logged in all the time together, when they were 18, you see each other, Gavin, you must be like, you guys must all be still close, right? Yeah, of course.
Starting point is 01:40:55 We still got our group chat from college. We talk in it almost every other day or every day. Yeah, we still keep close touch. Well, you still keep close touch. Well, you could argue the Kings have a better chance to go further in the playoffs this year than Miami does. Miami's been struggling. We ain't going to put up with that.
Starting point is 01:41:12 We ain't going to put up with that. They give Bam some shit. What do you see going forward with this Kings team? You're getting these reps. Everybody takes you seriously now. One of the things I liked, especially I saw in person, going forward with this Kings team, you're getting these reps. Everybody takes you seriously now. One of the things I liked, especially I saw in person,
Starting point is 01:41:31 is everybody kind of knows their roles already, which I think is pretty rare for a team that has some new pieces. You guys know who our nine is, who our 10 is, who's playing when, who's going in. If you're getting hot in the fourth quarter, they'll keep you out longer,
Starting point is 01:41:43 stuff like that. So what else needs to happen? What are the next steps? Really locking in on the defensive end because our offense is always going to be there. Yeah. We really just got to buy in to everybody's moving as one on the defensive end.
Starting point is 01:41:59 And when we do that, it's going to be sky's the limit. I was surprised in person. This is why I love going. One of the many reasons I love going to basketball games. Keegan Murray's fucking tall. He's like a big ass dude. He looks like he's like 6'10". Yeah, he's big now. He's way taller than
Starting point is 01:42:18 I thought too when I first, when I seen him playing at Iowa. And he's smooth. And he's like, yeah, he's just like, there's an easiness to him. I liked him. I thought, I was like, I liked him in college,
Starting point is 01:42:30 but in person, I was like, oh, this guy. Like, you can just see what he is. He's stretched, stretched four or three. He can just kind of go back and forth. But it just seemed like he was fun to play with too,
Starting point is 01:42:40 which I think one of the things I like about the Kings is everybody seems like they're fun to play with. For sure. We got to get Keegan open up a little bit more, but other than that, he's great. Was he too quiet? Yeah. I mean, he's a rookie, though, but
Starting point is 01:42:53 I'm going to make sure he opens up. Who's the most loquacious, gregarious, crazy guy on the team personality standpoint? You're probably talking to him right now. Yeah, I was going to say, you're probably one of the candidates, right?
Starting point is 01:43:09 Yeah, definitely. What about Sabonis? What's he like? I love Sabonis. He talks a big game, though. That's what he does. He's like a shit talker? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:43:21 Yeah. To me, at least. Kev, too. We all just talk. We all talk a we all just talk we all talk a lot man we all talk a lot of stuff to each other um i think that's why we get along so well well kev's got some swagger yeah yeah he always had that i like he definitely a little more than i think people might be expecting they don't know they don't know kev yeah he's been in. He was in Atlanta now. So yeah, we got a little season from there. Well, you also have I mean, I think you're better than a heat check guy at this point, but you're you know, you're a classic heat check guy. But Davis is another heat check guy. Yeah, TD, man. He can he can like do like the 15 point
Starting point is 01:44:01 quarters and all that. He did that last night, man. He kept us in the game. He kept us in the game last night for sure. Who's the best team you've played in the West so far? Who impressed you the most? The best team? Or have you not played the team yet? Probably Phoenix, man.
Starting point is 01:44:20 Because they're just so together. We haven't played Denver yet. I haven't seen what Denver's like yet. But yeah, Phoenix, they just know each other, man. And they just move as one. It's hard to beat them. It's hard to beat them. And you played my team, the Celtics.
Starting point is 01:44:39 You hung with like two and a half quarters, and then we made every shot for like a half hour. Celtics are legit, man. Jason is my dog, too. I've been knowing Jason since I was little. Yeah, man. Wait, explain that. How do you know Jason since you were little?
Starting point is 01:44:54 St. Louis and Arkansas is close. And we used to see each other a lot playing AAU. And he used to go to Memphis to work out. And Memphis is like 30, 40 minutes from my hometown in Arkansas. I used to see him a lot when he was little. Interesting. You saw him before he grew to become a 6'9
Starting point is 01:45:16 freak? Yeah, man. He actually always been like that, though. All the footwork, all the jab steps. He played like that his whole life. He haven't changed his game. Were you laughing when he didn't go first in that draft? Yes and no. Because I seen what the teams were trying to do.
Starting point is 01:45:35 Yeah. Your draft was that 2017 or 18? 17. Yeah, you were 17, right? You went 11. That was a good draft. Yes, sir. Yes, sir. So that was the Tatum draft. That was
Starting point is 01:45:47 Lonzo and Fultz and yeah, there was a lot of stuff going on in that. Yeah, Donovan. Me, Bam, Fox. Yeah, all of them. Yeah. Yeah, Donovan fell to what? Like 13? Did he go after you? Yeah, he was 14 actually. Bam went 13. Damn. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:46:04 Larry Marketing. Oh, right. Yeah. Larry Marketing. Oh, right. Yeah, that was a deep trap. So you're a believer in the Celtics then? Yeah, man. They're legit. They're legit. They're a legit team.
Starting point is 01:46:14 Anybody else surprise you? No, us. Not really anybody else, man. The West is like, it could not be more wide open, especially like Curry just got hurt last night. I don't know how bad the shoulder thing is. Hopefully it's not too bad. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:46:37 You can never count Golden State out, man, because they've been doing this a long time, man. Him, Draymond, Clay, they've been doing this a long time, so they'll figure it out. They'll definitely figure it out. Have you ever gotten into it with Draymond? No, we talked back and forth. We never really got into no, like, altercation,
Starting point is 01:46:58 but we'll talk some shit to each other. Yeah, you're not like, you're a little bit of a shit talker, but you're not like a barker. Yeah, I'm not going to just're a little bit of a shit talker, but you're not like a barker. Yeah, I'm not going to just bark. I'll talk a little bit to you, though. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:47:09 So you guys, you played the Lakers early in the season, but not lately since they got their stuff together a little bit. How many games?
Starting point is 01:47:17 I think we played them in like two or three games in set. What was your, what was your best LeBron story from your year in the lakers i can't tell you those you can't not even the secret lebron stories and get the secrets out man because that's gonna get my secrets that he gave me out was he was he cooler or just as cool as you thought
Starting point is 01:47:38 he was going to be to play with way way cooler um because he's so smart. And he's just going, he'll tell me something that'll happen. And I'm like, yo, how you know this is about to happen? Then he'll move, this person move,
Starting point is 01:47:57 this person move. Then the ball will come to me and I get the shot. And he just said it'll happen just like that, man. So he thinks like five, six plays ahead of everybody else. So that's why it happened just like that man so he thinks like five six plays ahead of the uh ahead of everybody else so that's why it was so great man um just being around him um
Starting point is 01:48:10 almost every day um and just taking out a lot is from yeah the crazy thing about him is he's one of like the best physical specimens we've had right in basketball but he's also got the brain too he's got like that magic bird brain on top of the physical specimen thing but yeah everybody who plays with him is like there's some sort of genius element to how he sees basketball that's just different i don't know how he does it but he definitely sees the game way way different than everybody else what did you see from davis last year because he's been uh he's been better this year than last year. Last year, it seemed like he had too much muscle. He definitely
Starting point is 01:48:48 probably was a little heavy last year, but I can't say that because he knows his body better than us. But AD is always great, man. He's always talking to me. Just making sure I know the game on and off the court. I was with him a lot
Starting point is 01:49:03 and that helped me to become the player I am right now. He always just gave me small little pointers, man. Don't do this. Go about things like this. Do this. Do this. So, yeah, I love ADN, bro. Who's the best teammate you've had?
Starting point is 01:49:19 Because you've been, what, six years now? That's a tough question, man. I have some great teammates. Okay, everyone loves Kemba. Kemba, Marvin Williams, LeBron, of course, AD. But Kemba, man, yeah, Kemba probably was the best.
Starting point is 01:49:41 Kemba was the best. When he came to, everyone in Boston absolutely loved him. They said like off the court, he was the best. Kimball was the best. When he came to, everyone in Boston absolutely loved him. They said, like, off the court, he was the all-time best guy. Great. He's just great. Always happy, always smiling. Nothing negative about him.
Starting point is 01:49:55 So, yeah, I love that about Kenny. Yeah, I'm hoping he, in Dallas, I'm hoping they use him like the Celtics have been using Blake Griffin. Although they've had to play Blake Griffin more. But these guys that, if you can just get one good game a week out of them, and then they can rest their bodies. Right. He can do it, too, man.
Starting point is 01:50:13 He can do it. He can do it. I think that was a great pickup for him. Who do you think is the best player in the league right now? The best player? Yeah. Oh, my. When you're going against all these dudes, does
Starting point is 01:50:27 anyone stand out, or would you say there's four to six guys that are all near each other? Giannis, of course. Yeah. Jason. Luca. Steph. It's a good foursome
Starting point is 01:50:46 yeah so when you have Giannis that's one of those where it's like today's gonna be hard every time he on the schedule it's gonna be like oh yeah he's coming 100%
Starting point is 01:51:01 he coming 100% every play and he's not gonna stop and his team feeds off that He's coming 100%. He's coming 100% every play. And he's not going to stop. And his team feeds off that. So that's why they're so good because they just feed off his energy. He's not going to have – his energy never goes down. My team had to play him in a very long playoff series last year, and I needed like a vacation afterwards from him. That was a long –
Starting point is 01:51:24 Two weeks of Giannis was – I was like, that was it. I don't want to see this guy again for a year. That's stressful. Yeah. It's rough. Tell me about the Kings fans. Cause it seems like there's something special. I mean that talk about a star fan base.
Starting point is 01:51:39 They have made the playoffs since 06. And they still there every day. Yelling, screaming. The fans surprised me. That's one thing that surprised me about the city is how loyal the fans are.
Starting point is 01:51:52 Everywhere I go, they've been telling me we've been Kings fans for this long. I'm so glad that you're bringing light to the team, things like that, man.
Starting point is 01:52:00 So they all just, they all bought in just like we are, man. So we're just trying to turn everything around. Because you guys are a legitimately tough home team now there's an energy to those games i'm gonna come i'm gonna end up coming yeah please come i want to come i want to come see it in person because i love nothing more than a good nba home crowd and there's an energy in those games that you can feel in the TV. It gets loud.
Starting point is 01:52:25 It gets real loud in there. Well, think about how long. All right, so they have made the playoffs since, I think, 06. So how old were you in 2006? Hmm. Eight? You're right. So, you know, and then on top of it,
Starting point is 01:52:45 I'm sure you know the history of they should have made the finals in 2002 and the refs in game six and all that stuff. So it was just a 20-year anniversary of all that. The refs have been a story about the Kings, man, for a little bit. I've been hearing it. Yeah, I've been hearing it. When I was with the Lakers, I heard it. When I was with Charlotte, I heard it, man.
Starting point is 01:53:03 And now I'm here, I'm seeing a little bit of it. But maybe that's been a story. Maybe it'll flip. We're going to turn it around. All right. I'm trying to think. That's it. That's it.
Starting point is 01:53:14 That's all I had for me. I was just checking in. I am super excited that you finally found the right team. You're one of my favorites. I'm going to come to a game. Let's try to figure out how to get more of a personality out of Keegan Murray. I'll think of some ideas. I'll be on that a lot.
Starting point is 01:53:32 How about coffee? Maybe like Starbucks? Could that get him going? Like a latte? I don't think he needs to drink coffee right now. Candy? Like M&M's? Yeah, candy.
Starting point is 01:53:45 We got to take him to some dinners things like that yeah alright he'll come out of his shell he's a rookie do you make him like carry the bags and all
Starting point is 01:53:51 you doing all is he doing all the rookie stuff yeah he does some rookie stuff but I got another we got Keon on a trip with us
Starting point is 01:53:58 um he's another rookie I make him um carry the bags but Keegan gotta go every plane ride. He got to go get Chick-fil-A for everybody.
Starting point is 01:54:09 So, yeah, that's one thing he does. Oh, that's good. I mean, that sounds delicious. All right, listen. Good luck with the rest of the season. I'm glad you found the right team. I'm on the bandwagon. I love the Light the Beam stuff.
Starting point is 01:54:23 I love the home crowd. You guys are fun to watch. Congratulations on everything. Got to come check it out. All right. Good to see you. So you too. Appreciate it. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Malik. Thanks to Ben and Steven. And thanks to Shrigs. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing as always, I will see you on this feed on Sunday night. Until then. Yes, we can. On the wayside.
Starting point is 01:55:05 On the first side. Never on. Say it. I don't have to ever forget.

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