The Bill Simmons Podcast - Brady vs. Belichick With Seth Wickersham, Plus Million-Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager

Episode Date: October 1, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by ESPN’s Seth Wickersham to discuss his new book, ‘It's Better to Be Feared: The New England Patriots Dynasty and the Pursuit of Greatness.’ They also discuss the highly anticipated upcoming matchup between the Buccaneers and the Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts (1:55). Then Bill talks with NFL Network’s Peter Schrager to make their Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 4 (1:00:50). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Seth Wickersham and Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, everybody? I'm J.J. John G. Stramski. And I'm Jason Goff, and if you haven't heard, The Ringer has gone local. I'm bringing the fire, I'm bringing the rain from the Big Apple with my show, New York, New York. And I'm repping Chi-Town with my new show, The Full Goal on all things Chicago. We've got episodes three nights a week with all the reaction of the local teams and guests. Plus bonus episodes around all the big games and storylines. So whether you're uptown, downtown, in the burbs, or a transplant, make sure you follow

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action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong. You could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel like to catch your pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate, offensive TDs, the next drive. They have so much stuff. It's crazy. The app is safe and secure and easy to use. And when you win, you'll get paid instantly. Plus look out for FanDuel squares

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as well as the Ringer Podcast Network where we just relaunched our TV podcast that is called The Prestige TV Pod. I popped down there a couple of times

to talk about the morning show of the Band of Dobbins that is Sopranos Hall of Fame episode there as well. I'm going to be going on there in a couple of weeks to talk about Succession.

But we've been covering Billions, Ted Lasso, Squid Game's going to be on there next week. You name it, it's going to be on there. A bunch of great people talking about it. So check it out. The Prestige TV pod, you can follow it on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Coming up, going to be talking about Belichick, Brady, and Kraft. I'm sure you've heard of all three of those guys. With Seth Wickersham, who just wrote a new book called It's Better to Be Feared,

the definitive chronicle of the Belichick, Brady, Kraft dynasty. So lots of ways to go with that one. Been waiting to have him on for a while. And then, can Peter Schrager and I do it? Can we do our ninth straight successful week of million dollar picks? You're about to find out. First, our friends from Pearl Jet. All right, Bucks-Pats on Sunday night. Belichick-Brady. Everybody's been talking about it all week.

We've been talking about it for really the whole season. We knew the record could possibly be broken, which is this just fascinating wrinkle. The NFL obviously looked at the schedule and said, hey, very likely he could break the touchdown record during this crazy emotional game. I have friends, Seth Wickersham, who wrote the book, the definitive book about the Patriots dynasty that's out this week. I have friends that can't believe I'm not coming back for this. I'm going to be watching this game by myself

in LA. I don't want to be with anybody else. I don't know what my emotions are going to be. I don't know if I'm going to bet on it. I think all the Pats fans have looked at this thing as this thing they knew was coming, but now it's close and they kind of don't know what to do with it. What is it like if you're Brady? What is it like if you're Belichick? What is it like if you're Kraft? Let's go through the three. Brady, what's it like for him this week? I mean, I bet you that Brady is resolutely focused in trying to be as unemotional as possible, which means, and a buddy of mine suggested this yesterday, that they'll probably end up doing a big tribute to him on the video board and that Belichick will give him a hug and they'll do anything to get him emotional and turn off his game a little bit.

I'm so glad you brought this up. I think that's the move. I think that's the move for the crowd. I think you really like you turn it into, you know, like a tearjerker. Exactly. You try to pray it, make him like a non-robot, make him a human being. Exactly. Like when Peyton Manning went back to Indianapolis as a Denver Bronco, they did that to him. And if you go back and look at the replay,

he started crying in warmups. And so I totally think that that's the play with Brady because he expects a tough crowd. He expects Bill to ignore him before the game, which I doubt that he will, but still he can handle all that. But if it's this complete outpouring of love, that could be a good advantage.

Well, and we'll get to Belichick Kraft in a second, but I think one of the interesting things about Brady over the years, and you talk about it in the book after the last Tennessee game, the way he handles the press conference where he's like weirdly uplifting versus like how he usually was after losses.

But both him and Belichick have done such a good job of presenting whatever that image is that they want to present in public versus what they're actually like in private. Right. And Brady has been so good. That's why I thought time after time, that Facebook thing he did was like kind of mildly interesting. Cause there were some moments and they were like, Oh, that's actually the real Tom Brady, but he's been very careful of kind of keeping that Batman Superman costume on.

But I don't think he's going to be able to keep it on with all the pregame stuff. Any human being is going to feel the emotion. I don't think he can lock that out. I agree with you. And I think that he said at some point in the past year that 90% of what he says in a press conference is bullshit. And it's not what he's really thinking. And I think even with Tom versus time, he let himself be existential in front of the cameras, but he still let other people kind of

go there more for him. I mean, you've seen Alex Guerrero talk a little bit, Tom Sr. talk a little bit, his wife, Giselle Bunchen, during Tom. Time, she talked a little bit. Tom is kind of a master at letting his feelings out there. And then when he's in front of a microphone, maybe not quite denying them, but kind of skirting around it just enough so that it seems like he's got a little bit of a distance from it. Yeah. Well, I'll tell you this, and you have this in the book. And one of the reasons I loved reading the book, obviously, I lived it the whole time, but then when you see somebody kind of lay it out

from beginning to end and you just think like, 20 years is a long fucking time. Long fucking time. When he gets drafted, I wasn't even at ESPN yet. The first year that he took over from Bledsoe was the first year I was writing for Page Two and saying like, you know, it was the early internet. I'm on the Page Two with Hunter Thompson and Ralph Wiley. And just to watch that evolve. And now I have two kids, I've had five dogs and, you know, he was still on the Patriots

at the end of the second decade. But I think the part, one of my favorite stretches of the book is the deflategate part. And I think that's the piece when people talk about guys coming home. And I know Indianapolis love Manning. Obviously, people know New England love Brady. And you have these guys that are like your guys. The deflategate thing pushed it to another level with Brady and the fans, where it wasn't just he was our guy. Now our guy was under attack.

Now we had to defend our guy. Now other people thought our guy was a cheater. And that's what made that Super Bowl season so great. That Baltimore home game, the Seattle Super Bowl, it was all like kind of floating around what had just happened with the deflategate. And I'll be interested to see, because some people are like,

how are they going to react to it? I think the fans are going to be 100% for Brady. I'd be shocked if there were any boos. Oh, I totally agree. I mean, especially because he wanted to remain a Patriot. I mean, he made so clear over his career

that all he wanted to do was retire as a New England Patriot. Robert Kraft made clear that he wanted Tom Brady was retire as a New England Patriot. Robert Kraft made clear that he wanted Tom Brady to retire as a New England Patriot. And Robert Kraft has also made clear that the one reason that Tom Brady's not a New England Patriot right now is because Bill Belichick thought that he either was at the end or very, very close to it. And so they kind of have to blame their head coach. I mean, that's who this is at the end of the day. I mean, yes, Tom Brady wanted more organizational influence that he was never going to get into England.

He told Joe Montana, he's like, they ask for my input and I give it, and then they ignore me and do their own thing. And he wanted to stay in personnel. He wanted to be more involved in game planning. Alex Guerrero, I mean, he was banned from the team playing and from part of the building by Bill Belichick. And he has a Super Bowl ring. The Bucs have a Super Bowl ring down in Tampa. All that said, I really go back to like after the Falcon Super Bowl. If right after that game, they had signed him to a five-year contract,

so much acrimony is just averted. It would have taken care of everything, but instead, it was kind of in that off season and into that 2017 season where a lot of the discontent and the tension, even though I hate using that word, really came up. And Belichick talked about this in the past, obviously. He's playing the odds, right? Nobody's done this. You don't do this at this position past your late 30s. History says it has to end. We're watching with Roethlisberger right now in the Steelers. He looked like he was done last year. Brady never had a season like what Roethlisberger had last year, but the Steelers, they look at it and they're like, well, let's give it one more year. We'll see. Belichick was just never going to do that with Brady.

He was, he was always playing the odds, the percentages, the mortality rates of a QB. And it was just like, I always have to have a backup plan because when this goes, this is going to go fast. And then you have Brady on the other hand going, I want to play until I'm 45. I can do it. And you're right.

In retrospect, it seems crazy that they didn't say, here's a five-year deal. You'll never play for another team. Here we go. But I kind of understand it from the Pat side, at least a little bit, where it's like, all right, but we're giving you a five-year deal to do something nobody has ever achieved. I do think they misunderstood kind of the health advantages and how driven Brady was to do that. Don't you think? I mean, that was a lot of the stuff in your book is like, they kind of just underestimated him.

Yeah, the two people who should have never underestimated him. And by the way, this is primarily a Bill Belichick decision, but it was also a Robert Kraft decision. I mean, he told people at the Super Bowl when the Chiefs played the 49ers that, you know, we want Tom, but not until he's 45. And Brady, you know, Belichick always does these studies, right? He sends assistant coaches and executives to go do studies. And he did studies about, you know, Balachek always does these studies, right? He sends assistant coaches and executives to go do studies.

And he did studies about, you know, the way the quarterbacks slip when they're in their 30s. And he did a study that I report about in the book where they interviewed Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant and Tiger Woods to try to define these characteristics that all these immortal athletes have. And Brady was interviewed also. And with the other guys, all of the motivations came from,

you know, the chip on the shoulder, the ruthlessness, and, you know, sort of almost seeking and inventing scars. Whereas like Brady was different. I mean, he had some of that to him, but he always seemed to thrive best when he was in an atmosphere

that was like his family's, which was kind of loving and supporting. And that was just always at odds with the ship that Bill Belichick ran. I think that Bill deserved some credit. I don't think it was quite as cold-less, as emotionless as people make it out to be. But it was not Bruce Arians. I mean, Brady went from Harvard Law School to Florida State when he went down there. I think as you lay out in the book, this is

such a long relationship between these three people and it's so unusual and it's so historic and it's so different and it just will never happen again. I'm always nervous about saying this will never happen again with sports and then over and over again you're surprised. I truly honestly think this will never happen again with sports. And then over and over again, you're surprised.

I truly honestly think this will never happen again. You'll never see a quarterback and a coach catch each other at the early stages. And then an owner kind of in the early stages for him too. And then it just kind of all works out for two decades. So when you see it all laid out year by year by year, it kind of becomes amazing that they stayed together you know

if anything like probably the best thing for them was to stay together was losing the Super Bowl in 07 and then losing in 012 because now it's like

you got to stick together we have the best chance to win if we have each other but then by the time they win the next two even before the third one that's where you can see, it's like, all right,

I got what I wanted from you. You got what you wanted from me. You want to run this Patriot Way, Belichick thing over here and I kind of want to do my own thing and have my dude Alex Guerrero and I want to become more of a personality. I want to have more of a say in that.

So all of that makes sense but it's just crazy to me that they dragged 19 years out of it. You write this book, like as you're laying it out, are you thinking like, oh my God, how is this not over in like year nine? Exactly. That's exactly what I was thinking. And frankly, my favorite part of the book, the book's divided into three parts. And my favorite part is part two, because that goes, that's the 10 yearyear drought where they had plateaued at the highest level that you can plateau at, but they were still coming up just

short. And they knew internally that we hadn't done it. And these two men, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, were really digging within themselves to find that last percentage of a percentage point that they could improve. And that to me, that's where a lot of the TV12 stuff was birthed because Tom Brady, I was at his apartment and Alex Ferraro shows up at his apartment and I was like, what does that guy do? And Tom was like,

it's really complicated to describe what he does. It turns out that his job is actually pretty easy. His job is to make Brady's goals come true and to never tell him no. And then you had Bill Belichick. Well, but he also had like, there was a witch doctor element to him in the early years where it's like, he figured out some new form of HGH. There's rumors flying around. What's this guy doing? He's changing Brady's blood. Nobody knew what he did. Nobody could understand. It was a little like the Ernie Adams of health almost, where it's like, what does that guy do?

And in some ways, people still think that. You know, one of the things I pointed out in the book is that the TB12 method came out and, you know, there was all these things that got mocked in it, that, you know, water would help you prevent sunburns and all that stuff. And when they did an updated edition,

they actually removed a lot of that stuff. They kind of took out a bunch of the stuff that Alex was driving a little bit more than Tom. But going back to that drought, and then you look at Bill. I mean, Bill had to figure out a way to get his team back to the point. Remember, those three Super Bowls were by a combined total of nine points. They did not win blowouts. The Eagles Super Bowl was kind of... It was a dominating game, but they only won by three

points. And so Bill had to figure out a way to take these inches that they were losing in Super Bowls and turn them into victories. And that's why I went really deep on the Baltimore formation in the Ravens playoff game. I mean, if they don't have that play, they're down two touchdowns to the Ravens who are not scared of them at all. If they lose that game and they get bounced from the playoffs in the first round again, I mean, is Brady even back the next year? They already had Garoppolo on the bench.

A lot of things changed when they went to that Baltimore formation. It's the second greatest home win of this whole era. The snow game is still number one. We call it the snow game. Everyone else calls it the tuck roll game. Snow game is one, but the Baltimore game is two

and is such a rollercoaster ride. I think it's in the running for most entertaining, pure football game. They were more entertaining games like the Atlanta Super Bowl and stuff like that. The AFC title game against the Colts. Those were always train wreck rollercoasters. The AFC title game against the Colts. There were, but those were always like kind of train wreck roller coasters,

right? The chiefs game where the chiefs come back and D Ford's are offsides. Uh, the Eagle Superbowl, those games are entertaining, but like unconventionally entertaining. The Ravens Pats game is just like an awesome football game where the Ravens are better and they kind of outthink them.

And then the crowd takes over in the end. And, um, it's, it's a highlight. And they kind of out think them and then the crowd takes over in the end. It's a highlight. And nobody really knew if Brady still had that magic. They were down 14 and they got right back in the game, but then they trailed again. And Brady drives them down the field. He throws that perfect pass on the fade route

for a touchdown. He was pretty fired up. He got poked in the eye in that game. He and Terrell Suggs were talking all kinds of shit to each other. And after that game, John Harbaugh is just livid. And remember, Bill Belichick ran the no huddle and used the Baltimore formation and the Ravens formation, knowing that John Harbaugh was going to lose his cool. He knew that John Harbaugh had a temper that he couldn't control, and he set this trap for him. And one of the themes I get to in the book is just how he wrecks certain coaches. Mike Martz, Mike Shanahan with the intentional

safety. And John Harbaugh, he knew that John Harbaugh would flip a lid, and he eventually got a 15-yard penalty in that game because he was so upset about this. And then... Wait, for the people listening, that was the thing they did where they were declaring ineligible receivers on the line, but they were off the line. So the Ravens were basically defending these guys who couldn't move,

but then the tackles that were offensive linemen are moving off the line. And Harbaugh almost has an aneurysm on the sidelines. Anyway, go ahead. That play was originally called Fight Song and it was convented by Lane Kiffin at USC and he called it Fight Song because he was like, when we run it, we're going to

score a touchdown. So anyway, after the game, John Harbaugh's just pissed because he feels like the refs let him off the hook. He feels like they got intimidated by Bill Belichick and didn't give the Ravens time to set up like they were supposed to. And of course, Tom, who never talks trash, never. He's actually not a very good trash talker, even in practice, says, maybe those guys ought

to learn the rules. And John Harbaugh ends up getting an apology from Bill Belichick because of that. But friends of John Harbaugh around the league were just so pissed that Brady did that. And obviously we saw where that led. Where that led to the Colts getting a little defensive and a little frustrated about Deflategate and tipping

off the refs. Right. Yeah, I always get that mixed up. The Ravens game was before the Deflategate. But the thing that was happening that year was Manning had had that resurgence with Denver and the Manning-Brady thing, which had been kind of a seesaw. And Brady was our guy.

He was Bill Russell. And Manning was the more talented guy. He was the number one pick. He had all the gays, dad, the whole thing. And he was Will Chamberlain and we were basically reliving

Russell over Chamberlain where it's like you can have all these the better offense but our guy wins the big games and that's what we do and then Manning flips it

and then we don't win Super Bowls for a few years Manning goes to Denver he breaks Brady's touchdown record he gets another one before

you know and then he's kind of flipped and now he's the best. And I think all of us were just like, man, Brady's got it. We got to get this back. And then all of a sudden, within three years, it's a complete flip. There's like no doubt left.

No, I mean, Peyton, Brady's had a Hall of Fame career in the time since Peyton Manning retired, which is insane. And like, I go deep into their relationship, you know in the time since Peyton Manning retired, which is insane. And I go deep into their relationship between Brady and Peyton and Eli. And there was this one moment that was in 2015. And they all just happened to be at Augusta National the same weekend. And so Peyton and Eli decided to get up early. And they sneak through Augusta because they're wearing shorts and you're not allowed to wear shorts. They sneak through Augusta to the gym to try to get up early and they sneak through Augusta because they're wearing shorts

and you're not allowed to wear shorts. They sneak through Augusta to the gym to try to get an early morning workout. And who's in there? Rory McIlroy and Tom Brady. And Rory is like, oh my God, like how many Super Bowl MVPs and league MVPs are in this little teeny gym that nobody uses? He's like, I got to get out of here. So he leaves. And then for the next 40 minutes, it's Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning, all in the same teeny little gym working out. And the Mannings, you know, of course, their regimen is completely different than Brady's. Brady's just working out with rubber bands and doing stretches and very TB12 stuff. And the Mannings were watching him, trying to steal

for tips for that time. And think about those guys. They're all friends, but it was all business. They barely said anything to each other for those 45 minutes. And then Brady left and he was like, I'll see you guys out on the course. Well, there's definitely some frenemy stuff with Manning and Brady,

especially the first 10-12 years. I don't think there's any question. I don't, those guys were not hanging out. Absolutely. And Peyton, you know, he loves, you've seen in the Monday Night Football broadcast, he loves to try to like tweak the Patriots for real or perceived cheating anytime he can. Yeah. And that's, you know,

that's another thing that I, that jumped out to me in the book was all these different kind of aggrieved people that are along the highway of this Patriots journey. Mike Martz is probably still mad about this right now. He's probably arguing with the Starbucks barista that the Patriots taped this practice, you know, and did they tape it? I don't know. I just think, I think that's obviously I'm going to defend the Pats as often as I can. In that case, total sour grapes by Mike Martz.

Belichick used all the stuff against Mike Martz. He knew Mike Martz was going to want to basically pull his cock out and swing it for three hours in the Super Bowl and be the big offensive genius Mike Martz. And Belichick just flipped it on him, and they never adjusted. And by the time they adjusted in the fourth quarter, that's when they started moving the ball. It was too late.

You know, Belichick's always able to use things against the people like their Achilles heels in a weird way. And that came up over and over again in the book. Yeah, it's that Karl Rove thing, turning strengths into weaknesses. But one of the anecdotes that I was told and I loved it is that, so Spygate happens and it breaks on a Sunday. And Roger Goodell is trying to figure out what this is all about in the next coming days. And he calls all these head coaches and general managers around the NFL and they're just burying Bill.

It's like the height of their piousness. You know, he's a cheater. Everything that he does is dirty. You got to give him everything. You got to suspend him, all this stuff. And Goodell calls Mike Shanahan, who at the time wasn't quite the genius that Bill at the level was, but he was still one of the better, smarter head coaches around the NFL and a good friend of Bill's. He calls Mike and he's like, well, what's going on here? What do you think about this? And Mike says, Roger, I wish I had thought to do that myself. Like I'm mad at myself. Bill's out there that Bill thought of it before I did. And I would have done it without even blinking because there's no

punishment for it. Nobody had ever been busted for taping signals. So why not push the envelope? Why not do it? And he said, you cannot say that Bill Belichick's a bad guy. He's just better at it than everybody else is. And I just love that because in the context of Tony Dungy and all these other guys who really took the opportunity to pile on Bill, here was a two-time Super Bowl winner who came out and he was like, Roger, I'm jealous. I didn't think of it myself. Pauline was the worst. He was the one that bothered me the most. He was just sour grapes. The Pats beat the hell out of their receivers in one of the AFC title games,

like maybe 04. That was when he pushed for the big rule changes. I want to keep talking about Belichick, but we're going to take a break. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl

ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, coming back. I asked you at the top, the three people heading into this Sunday night game. We talked about Brady and we'll circle back with them at the end. Belichick. So I have a theory. I don't know if I'm right. I swear this is a hot take more than

a take. I'm not standing by the take. It was just something that crossed my mind last Sunday. They're losing to the Saints. It's one of the dumbest game plans the Patriots have had for a game for the entire time I've been rooting during the Belichick era. Completely inexplicable play calling and just kind of weird. It's just a weird game. And, and afterwards it was so strange afterwards. I'm thinking like, it's almost like they want to win this Tampa game so bad. They didn't want to show anything in this Dorans game. Now the other option is we just can't block and none of our running backs can pick up the blitzes, which is probably the most likely outcome. But I don't think it's inconceivable that they're saving. I just don't think Belichick wants to lose this game. I think

he's a hundred times more competitive than anybody realizes. And they already know he's the best football coach of all time. I think the Superbowl with Brady last year really bothers him. I think he has a way better sense of his place in history, which you hit in the book a lot. He really does care about this stuff. He thinks about it. He does documentaries and let two people write books about him. And he cares. And I don't think he wants to roll over in this Tampa game and have it be Brady throws five touchdowns and breaks the record and gets cheered.

I think he's going all out in this game. So what do you think, walking into Sunday, what do you expect from him? And the emotions, everything, what do you expect? Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, I don't know if he treated last week's game like a virtual preseason game, but he's definitely done that in the past where he's taken formations or plays

and he conceives of them at one point during the season and he just saves them. Yes. Until it feels like one of his genius, one of his pieces of football genius is the ability to not panic and to let football situations play out. And I think the clearest moment of that was when he's confused at the sideline, and he notices that the clock's running, but the Seahawks are confused. And all the coaches are like, in the Super Bowl against the Seahawks, aren't you going to call a timeout? And he's like, no, no, I got it. I'm not going to. And that said, you know, a lot of the people that he spent

a lot of big money on this offseason were dropping a lot of passes. The offense has no rhythm at all and isn't scaring anybody. And so maybe defensively, he'll have some wrinkles. Nobody knows Tom Brady better than that guy. But I think he would have rather gone to that game 2-1 than 1-2. I'm not saying they threw away the game or treated it like a preseason game. I just thought it was pretty vanilla. It was mysteriously vanilla.

They were like, let's try to win this game. We think we can win this by kind of establishing the run, not doing anything too crazy. When really, like, the more I watch this team, I've watched every play for all three games, like, they can't really block. Mack's better than a shotgun with the receivers spread out, and they should kind of just play

up-tempo, and they're afraid to do that. And I feel like that's what's going to happen in this Bucs game. I don't know if they're going to win, but I think he unleashes back in this game. Defensively, Uche was a late scratch. That was mysterious to me. It was almost like, let's get him healthy for the Bucs game. I think they're treating this Bucs game like it's a playoff game.

I really do. I mean, since January of 2020, it's the closest thing they kind of have to one of those big playoff games. Yeah. All right, so Belichick. We know it's going to happen. He'll probably avoid Tom before the game. Then there will be the big handshake after.

They'll definitely have the handshake. Do you think he likes Tom Brady? Yeah, I do. Yeah, I do too. So I think, A, I'm not so sure that he'll do that. It wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give Tom

a hug before the game. Really? So you, wait a second, you're predicting the pregame hug? I'm saying that's like plus 180 on Fando

I'm putting out there. I know, seriously. I think they would and I think that also at the end of the game they might just do one of these kind of like how he did

with Josh McDaniels like years ago when McDaniels was with Denver. They were like, they don't want to make a big deal out of the game, they might just do one of these, kind of like how he did with Josh McDaniels years ago when McDaniels was with Denver. They were like, they don't want to make a big deal out of the handshake. But that said, I think that they're going to get in Brady's face. The one thing Bill does better than anybody ever is he disrupts the passing game. And I mean, for some reason, teams are just scared of Tom Brady. I mean, I understand why they're scared of him, obviously. But they

don't challenge the receivers a lot. They play zone, and they let him throw the short ball and get the ball out quick. And that's what he will do all day long. And Bill is not going to let him do that. And Tampa can't really run the ball. Belichick's usually good if

he's going against an offense that can do one thing but not the other thing. I'm sure he learned some tricks with Brady over the last 20 years that he kind of filed away in his head. And I don't know, it's going to come down to can the Patriots block the Bucs front seven? But with the Belichick thing, because he's, you talk in the early part of the book

about how he was always ahead of the curve, where stuff like, oh, everybody's doing a 4-3, I'll do a 3-4, and things like that, where the actual free-aging inefficiency for signing people, there's just more of these guys available because everyone's using a 4-3. There's just more linebackers to be had, basically.

But then as the league gets smarter, advanced analytics come in and things like that, you start, like your edges start eroding. You talked about this in that second stretch of the book as they're reinventing himself. What were the edges that he found after those first three Super Bowls in that like 09 to 2015 stretch?

Well, I think the most obvious one, and you and I talked about this, was the draft when he drafted Gronk and Hernandez. I mean, he changed football. He realized he couldn't beat the, you know, that the Jets had beaten them soundly at home in the playoffs

and he needed to do something different. It's crazy to think about that where the Patriots were like, we got to figure out a way to get past the Jets. But he knew that they needed to do something different. And so he did what he always does, is he adapted. And then I think that after he adapted, and still they were coming up short, I think that he realized that they had to have an element of surprise. And I think that that's

where that play came in, you know. The Baltimore Ravens funky play came into effect where even after everything that he had done, all the hours that he had devoted to this, his entire life to the detriment of maybe his happiness to a certain extent, they're still down 14 against the Ravens. And he says, let's go with Baltimore. And that really reignited the entire dynasty. Do you think these guys ever hung out? Do you think they ever had dinner? Was there any sort of relationship other than just the football stuff? Because you talked about, you know, a part people forget early in the Brady experience

was when Dick, Dick Rabine died and, uh, and Belichick's the coach at that point. He's just like, I'm going to coach the quarterbacks. I got this. So he is actually spending a ton of time with Brady and, and it's, he slowly realized like, I'm going to coach the quarterbacks. I got this. So he's actually spending a ton of time with Brady. And he slowly realized like, whoa, this guy's different. And then the next year, Brady's the backup quarterback. They don't even have competition for him. But do you think they had like a real relationship

or was it strictly coach quarterback? Well, it was both. I mean, clearly they knew that they were linked in a way and um i think there was a lot of love there was there always like i'm not so sure i mean i think that the hall of fame these guys will say i loved bill belichick and i love tom brady and i think they meant it um but i mean these guys got on each other's nerves and you know i think that you mentioned earlier like you know who where's the acrimony coming from now? I think it's coming from Tom's side more than Bill. I mean, Bill has been humble. He didn't think that Brady could do it anymore.

And he goes out and he wins the Superbowl. I think that Brady and Brady's people are more, you know, angry at the way that things ended. And the fact that in August of 2019, Brady almost had to leave. He almost left training camp in protest. He was so pissed off about how the contract negotiations were going. And so I think the edge is a little bit more on the Brady side right now. Yeah, I know people always ask that. Who's more responsible, which is so stupid. To me, it's like they were two parents of this awesome kid that was a sixth Super Bowl title kid.

And you can't say mom was more important than dad and that stuff. They're both there. With that said, Schrager told me Matt Castle had a take on the NFL Network today about Belichick won the first three Super Bowls, Brady won the next three, which I don't necessarily agree with, but I kind of liked it. I thought, because it's won the first three Super Bowls. Brady won the next three, which I don't necessarily agree with,

but I kind of liked it. I thought because it's definitely the first three were a little more Belichicky from how he put the team together, you know, and how ahead of the curve they were, the coaching staff that he picked, all these things. And then Brady basically, you know, he wins the Seattle game

when it's in the darkest moment by himself. The Atlanta game, he wins that by himself. The Philly game, they have no defense. I do think the Belichick was probably a little more responsible for the Rams game, but it's a fun one to think about Super Bowl by Super Bowl, but I just feel like they were both the parents of this thing. I'm with you. I love Peter, but I think that number one, the first Rams game, Brady didn't play that well. He turned it on at the end. He made the great before halftime and then he turned it on, you know, at the end. And then, you know, the Seattle game, I mean,

inserting that, that nickel defense, they had never called all year long and Malcolm Butler going in and making that play. I mean, you can't say that Bill had nothing to do with that. And then the final Superbowl where they played the Rams, I mean, you can't say that Bill had nothing to do with that. And then the final Super Bowl where they played the Rams, I mean, the Patriots only put up 13 points. I mean, he just exposed Jared Goff. And frankly, I don't think he and I don't think Sean McVay

ever really recovered from it. So it was kind of a nice little capstone. Yeah. That wasn't Peter's take. That was Matt Castle's take who was on the show. Yeah, Matt Castle. So I was like, ah, kind of interesting.

Yeah, with the Belichick thing, look, I'll just be honest because I obviously have a lot of Patriot fans in my life. We're all kind of looking at each other at least a little bit like,

uh-oh, does he still have it? You know, did the spending splurge last year, which I mostly liked. I thought they overpaid for Hunter Henry. I didn't understand the Jalen Mills thing at all.

John, who I liked, John, who was terrible last week, had drafted some really good draft picks, but it seemed like he had rebuilt the offensive line. And then you watch the offensive line this year and they can't block. And you think like, all right, so all of these great assistants he's had over years, and a lot of them get poached.

Nora wrote about this for The Ringer. She wrote a great piece about the curse of being a great coach or a great anything is you have all these people on your tree, and then people start grabbing the people from the tree. And like Brian Flores, I think is excellent. Like, guess what? He would have been awesome to have on the patrons coaching staff, but he was kind of overqualified.

So at some point, is that like, it's just the diminishing returns? How many times can you do it? Not only with like, just coming up with new innovations, but also just finding people for your inner circle. And that's what worries me is that like, man, how long can somebody do this? I'm totally with you. And I think that that's what makes it so interesting to me about both Brady and Bill is that for as different as they are, personality wise, they share this trait where they believe in the promise of the next play or the next season or the next game more than anybody

who's ever played. I mean, those guys can flush what's happened and focus on what's in front of them better than anybody ever. And they just refuse to concede an inch to anybody else's idea of the inevitable. And that's, you see it with Tom wanting to play until 45 and maybe beyond. And I think you really see it with Bill when he drafted Mac Jones, because what he was looking for there, I think, was something inherently fleeting. And that's a chance to have continued success in the NFL. And that's why that pick, I think, it wasn't just for need. I think that it just symbolized something. And that's that he knows that this is a quarterback's game. He won the lottery with Tom Brady. He developed a Super Bowl caliber replacement

in Jimmy Garoppolo. And he knew that he had to figure out a way to do it again, even now at age 69 years old. So you reported this for ESPN at the time. I didn't believe you. Then I eventually came to believe you because you were right. You wrote about this in your book too,

that the Garoppolo thing is this interesting kind of fissure for this three-headed relationship that had worked so well. Garoppolo becomes, these are the three people working at the restaurant and Garoppolo becomes the young blonde hostess who blows all of them up. And it's so funny, like when Malcolm Butler has the interception and Brady's celebrating and Garoppolo comes over and he won't even celebrate with Garoppolo. Like clearly he's just threatened by him the whole time. And it's not even like he's threatened by Garoppolo. He's threatened by the knowledge that Belichick is ruthless and Belichick will always get rid of you a year or two early. He's not going to be loyal to you. And he's developing the next guy.

And this shadow of Garoppolo really bothered Brady. And at some point, Kraft had to do something and Kraft sided with Brady in that moment. Is there anything in the book that's different from what you had already reported on ESPN? I mean, I know the answer, but just for the listeners. Yeah. I mean, Kraft denied that he pushed it. I wasn't the only one who reported that Kraft pushed the trade on Bill. And Kraft denied it. So obviously, that denial is in there. But I think that what you're talking about is right.

Look, Brady, he liked Jimmy as a human. He hated the idea of Jimmy. And when Belichick drafted Jimmy, he was so blunt. We all know what Tom's age and his salary are. And Tom, you talk about their relationship. I mean, these are two phenomenal football minds and whatnot, but they're very confrontational on a football field when they need to be with their teammates or their players. But together, they're not exactly the most confrontational people. And so Tom was always curious what Bill said about him in public. Remember, for the longest time, Brady's entire

career, Belichick wouldn't say he was the greatest quarterback ever. He would say, there's no quarterback I'd rather have than Tom Brady, which he considered to be unequivocal praise. But he also said, especially in that 2016 season where Brady was suspended for four games, and Brady's having this phenomenal season, right? I think he threw two interceptions all season and like 28 touchdowns in 12 games. Belichick says, you know, we've seen that we can make the transition to Garoppolo and it's really seamless. Seamless. I mean, that's a phenomenal word when you're talking about Tom effing Brady. Such a fuck you to Brady. Yeah, it really was. Belichick's kind of a dick. Like, that's in your book too. Like, he kind of,

he's really blunt. He's sometimes awkward. And he's not great at kind of pouring water on the plant, basically, with relationships. And, you know, I think that's where Robert Kraft comes in, where he's just trying to keep the band together

as long as he possibly can. And he understands Belichick's brilliance and he understood what he had in Tom Brady. And obviously when Kraft gets into the Hall of Fame, this is probably going to be a huge reason why is because he was able to hold this thing together. But it came with some managerial challenges. And in 2018, obviously, everyone's a little raw

coming off the Eagles loss in the Super Bowl, coming off the previous season where there was a lot of fighting. You mean when we lost the Super Bowl and we never punted? That Super Bowl? Yeah, it was still a little raw. Brady, right after the game, at the first meeting back in the facility, Brady's telling the coaches, I'm not coming back. And he skips the off-season program, at least the voluntary part of it. And in September, Kraft is in Aspen for a conference.

And he runs into some friends in the hotel lobby and he says, I really hate leaving here. These are the most brilliant minds in the world. And I got to go to Detroit to be with the biggest fucking asshole in my life, my head coach. And frankly, I think Belichick would be kind of proud of that. Yeah. Well, everyone said Belichick, once he got the new girlfriend, was actually a little nicer to everybody. Kind of in the 2010s,

that he kind of loosened up. But it certainly doesn't sound like it from any of the anecdotes. I have one last thing on Brady, then we're going to take a break. And I want to talk about Kraft because I think Kraft is the under for many of the anecdotes. I have one last thing on Brady, then we're going to take a break. And I want to talk about Kraft because I think Kraft is the underrated piece of this whole thing.

The point of Brady's career that he's at now, and I don't know if you're Intel and some of the people you've talked to even now since the book. The way it's been described to me, he almost sounds like an alien where he's like he's won so much now that it's

he's only obsessed with the process the actual winning piece of it doesn't it's kind of like just an outcome and yeah he obviously he loves winning everybody does but he's so driven at this point that that's kind of all he sees

it's not even about like the guy from the first Super Bowl who's like holding his head because he can't believe they won the Super Bowl. That guy's gone. And it's like Super Bowl or bust every year, he expects to win the Super Bowl. And the joy of winning the Super Bowl is probably one-tenth of how mad he would be if he didn't win the Super Bowl. That he's just moved to this different stage,

kind of mentally, psychologically. He's in complete control of that team. He owns every piece of it. And I don't know, what have you heard about that stuff? Yeah, I write about it. I mean, there's a reason why I built the book not around the Super Bowls, but around the character evolution of these two guys.

And I mean, you talk about Brady in 2001, 2002. I mean, he wanted to dominate the world. I mean, he was struggling with the adjustments to fame and all these things, but he has always had his eyes on some stratosphere that most people wouldn't even really conceive of. And you look at him now, and he can at know, the most friendly, cool guy in the world and also kind of detached at times. I mean, he just comes out with this Brady brand of clothing and, you know, I'm a little bit worried to see how much that sweatshirt that he was wearing is going to cost, you know? Some of his TB12 products are very expensive and it's not that I think that

he's a snob or anything like that. I think that like, you just keep, you keep rising until you're in a certain point where you're like a member of the global elite where human longevity is like human destiny and he's always felt that way. It's true. He's kind of graduated from us humans. Yeah, I think the guy in the 2000s, the guy who lived in Boston,

this is actually my favorite part of your book because I knew, obviously, I knew a lot of the guy who lived in Boston, this is actually my favorite part of your book because I knew, obviously I knew a lot of the stuff that was in there, but the part of this whole journey that I think it's glossed over now is this guy just becoming a super duper star during those second and third Superbowls. And, you know, it happened in Boston. It happened locally. And I w I was even there the first year where you become the big local guy and it's a small town. Everybody knows everybody. Everybody knows where everybody is. And pretty soon within a couple of years, he had to go to New York even to go kind of have fun without having a hundred people come up to him or whatever,

because that's the great thing about Boston. But by 03, 04, now he's moving into this different stratosphere. But what was cool in the book and the reporting, and you talked to so many people, he was very aware of it. My life's never going to be the same. It's never going to be the same for my parents. This isn't life altering like my life is actually going to be completely different and there's no going back now. But usually people aren't aware like that as it's happening. Absolutely. I mean, he was experiencing American fame like it arrives,

which is you have no time to stop and pause and to figure things out. You're just a kite in the wind. And at one point he calls his old counselor at Michigan, Greg Harden, and he's whining about, I can't do this. I can't do that. I can't go to theining about, I can't do this. I can't do

that. I can't go to the grocery store. I can't people watch. I can't be anonymous. And Greg starts laughing at him. And he is like, stop whining. You want to be the best, but you don't want to have the ability that you have right now to impact a kid's life by calling him and speaking to him for five minutes and impacting him for the rest of his life. And he's like, look, Tom, you're the hot cookie right now. Enjoy it because you're not going to be the hot cookie forever.

It turns out Tom's been the hot cookie for 20 years now. Right. Well, then the ACL would have been the other speed bump, right? Yeah. Blows out the ACL. Then it's like, by the time he comes back,

first of all, they go 11 and five without him. That starts all, Oh, Hmm. What's going on here? Still 11 and five without Brady, huh? Yeah. And then they come back and he never really is at the same level for the next couple of years. Statistically he was, but the team wasn't, um, but then figured it out. Um, I'm gonna take one more break. I really want to talk about Bob Craft. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. I come back, we're gonna talk about Bob Craft, the mystery man in all of this. Kind of gets off unscathed in a lot of ways, not in your book, but just in general during the era. I will never 100% forgive him for selling Brady out during Deflategate. It just has always really bothered me

that he seemed like he took the easy way out. You read about it in the book. I think Kraft quickly realized that he made a mistake and that he was kind of deceived and misled by Goodell in some ways about it, about if he did this, well, this will happen. And then it didn't happen. And, you know, it actually did nothing. And I think in Massachusetts, it did not go over great, but, um, in general, really smart guy, figured out a way to buy the team, leverage Hartford, keep the team, clash with Parcells,

which you cover in the book a little bit, and then ends up learning from Belichick even during that last Belichick season when he's there. Realizes Belichick is the guy that he needs to take. Just the Belichick hiring is one of the great owner moments in the history of the league, I think. Absolutely. And then it's smart enough

to kind of take a step back a little bit, let this play out. He's not meddling too much, knows Belichick and Brady are his meal tickets, and he's got a great life, right? He has this new stadium. He's overseeing this dynasty. He gets a lot of credit for it.

Not spending quite as much money, maybe as he could have year by year. I mean, I think he really was a profitable enterprise for him for a long time. But then once we get to the 2015-16 range, now we need somebody. Now you can't be like just Uncle Bob. You actually have to start navigating this

because this relationship started to get more complicated. Do you think he did a good job doing that from 2014 on? I mean, I think generally he did. And just going back, I think that the trade for Belichick is the greatest trade in NFL history. I'm not sure that there's a better one. That said, when Belichick first arrived, the building wasn't exactly warm towards him.

I write about that a lot where people were wondering how much actual authority he had. At one point, the coaching staff needed a printer and they couldn't get a printer for weeks. And they're like, how much authority does this guy have if he can't even get us a printer? But I think Kraft is interesting because he zigs often when you expect him to zap. Like in 2011 in the CBA negotiations, you know, Myra is on her deathbed. He's involved in these negotiations. And there was a contentious moment at the table where they were talking about fewer off-season practices. And John Mara of the Giants says yeah you

know owners you know coaches and GMs are gonna be pissed I don't we're not doing you know this is never gonna fly and Robert stops him and he says you know who cares if you know who cares if coaches and GMs are pissed they'll get over it we're not gonna kill the deal over this thing. And the players really appreciated that because he had taken their side on such a key issue that they believed that he was really trying to get a deal done. Now, you look at the later years, I mean, Bob Kraft changed quite a bit. Bill kind of always remained the same and kind of owned his darkness in a way that neither Kraft nor Brady ever did. But Kraft changed. He wasn't the guy who kind of looked like a salesman. He was wearing his Air Force Ones and he's going around

with Michael Rubin. And things changed for him a little bit. And then you get to 2017, where he's realizing that there's some severe cracks in this foundation. And he's dropping by the coach's offices and he's saying, hey, I should have you out to Cape Cod sometime and kind of making very clear that their loyalty should be with him, not Bill Belichick, not necessarily Bill Belichick. And he was just trying to navigate

these incredibly maniacally driven guys who at that point in time were really not getting along in any way outside of winning football games. And I think by and large, he did a masterful job. Maybe he should have overruled Bill in August of 2019 and said, here, Tom, what do you want? You want a three-year contract, two-year contract, four, whatever. You got it. Bill, I'm sorry. You got to deal with it. But he didn't. And we saw what happened. He probably should have. With that said,

Brady's last two Patriot seasons, there was sign of age and nutrition, right? I think the way he has looked during this Bucs season right now is the best he's looked in four years. And I can understand why they played the percentages. I think Kraft had been so good from learning from the Parcells experience where he meddled with Parcells to the point that Parcells left tread marks leaving, that he was so careful not to meddle with Belichick. And also, how do you meddle with the best coach of all time?

But he should have meddled in this case. This should have been one where it's like, hey, Bill, let's give the dude a five-year deal. We can front load it. Maybe it's like if he has three years instead of five and we have to get out of it, we can push the rest of the money. Like there's salary cap shenanigans we can pull, but let's just take care of this. I really genuinely think Belichick was like ready to hand the torch from Brady to Jimmy. Like the more we learn about this stuff, like it really seemed like Jimmy was his anointed guy. I was surprised they didn't

trade for him this spring. And maybe they would have if they didn't get Mack. Yeah, I think they were kind of wondering if he was going to be available. If they hadn't drafted Mack, I think they would have been wondering if he would have been available up to the first game of the season. Yeah, you're right.

Kraft used to say he would tell people that Bell didn't quite show him the respect you're right. And, you know, Kraft used to say, you know, he would tell people that Bill didn't quite show him the respect that he deserved. And he would say, you know, Bill was an idiot savant. I gave him this opportunity. And he started to, you know, talk to Nick Casario, who was the top personnel executive behind Bill in New England about their moves because Bill wouldn't tell Robert. And sometimes Nick didn't have the answers because Bill wouldn't tell Nick either. And so it just became kind of a, you know, a siloed dynamic that Kraft felt, you know,

the need that he had to, I don't know if Kraft ever really, you know, the guy owns a team, Dan Snyder medals. He's the one who comes off the yacht and walks into the draft room and tells them who they're picking during the first round after all this work they've done. Kraft never does anything like that.

But I think that, you know, Kraft had to, maybe he was feeling a little insecure. I don't know. But, you know, he felt like he needed to make sure that people in the building understood that he owned the team and that their long-term loyalties maybe should be focused on him and not just Bill. I wonder, like, he's in his mid-70s at this point,

right? And Jonathan's running more and more of the team. Late 70s? By 2017? How old is he at that point? Oh, late 70s. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Late 70s. Jonathan's running the team a little bit more. And, you know, it's possible, Yeah, yeah, yeah. Saved the Patriots in Massachusetts, and I'm always going to be grateful to him. But he's definitely got a little weird the last few years. There's no question. I would say he's got a little wonky. Well, he's wondering, what has he got to do to get in the Hall of Fame? I mean, he saved the team. He helped create this dynasty.

He held it together. He negotiated all of these CBAs and TV deals that made rich men richer. And he has asked people, he's asked voters for the Hall of Fame, like, you know, what's the appeal of Jerry Jones? Because he seems to be asking, you know, what's the guy done that I haven't done? Because, you know, he's 80 years old now. He's not in the Hall of Fame. You know, I think that the main reason he's not in the Hall of Fame is because of Palm Beach. And the voters just need some distance for that. But, you know, he should...

I'm not sure what makes a great owner, and I'm not sure what makes a great Hall of Fame owner, but by the standards that they've set with Pat Bowen, Eddie DiBartolo, and Jerry Jones, Robert Kraft should be a Hall of Famer next year. Well, you'd think, like, you'd use the word ruthless to describe all three guys for different reasons. You know, Brady was ruthless

and just like he will do whatever it takes to become the best quarterback of all time. That's all I cared about. And being an awesome teammate and just the concept of team, like every decision he made every day was based on the 16 regular season games and the three to four playoff games.

And that drove what he did on a Tuesday in April. If he's waking up at 5.30 in the morning to have carrot juice and then throw balls to some trainer for an hour. He's just every day 365. Belichick is ruthless about the construction of a team and never being loyal to anybody. He has no loyalty. He over and over again would dump these dudes a year too early and they still kind of like them. And in some cases it's like the Sopranos, like they know it's coming, you know, it's like part of the game. It's like, I know I'm going to get whacked. And then you have Kraft,

who is one of the most ruthless businessmen, we are successful, ruthless businessmen we've seen in football where over and over again, he's figured out how to leverage the franchise and the league for as much money as possible. I forget what he, what did he buy the team for? I mean, it was, it was less than 200 million, right? It was less money that he spent on guaranteed money and free agency this past year. Right. And it was like, he got the stadium. Like it was a crazy good deal. And then he didn't want to go to Hartford.

He would have gone there, you know, at gunpoint basically. Does that. He's built that team. It's like one of the five biggest assets we have. And the big question was, well, what happens when Brady leaves? Well, they're fine.

This is going to be the biggest regular season football game we've had in a couple of years. Mac Jones is in there and he should be in the Hall of Fame. But I do think he's a ruthless guy. And I think there's a lot of people over the last 25 years that, you know, I don't know if everyone's speaking kindly of him. Parcells is still mad about what happened with Kraft all those years later. And that whole Kraft, Will McDonough, Bill Parcells thing is one of the weirdest media stories the last 30 years. So to bring it back to the original question, so what's Kraft going to be like during

this whole thing on Sunday night? Probably pretty bummed from start to finish. That's what I would guess. I mean, he'll never admit it, but he'll think number 12 should have been in our uniform. I kind of think the Patriots are going to win. I don't know why, but my head tells me that the Bucs are going to win, and then he'd say, we would have won that if we'd had 12 on our side. It wouldn't

have even been close. They honestly felt like Brady was kind of the son he didn't have, even though he had multiple sons. You know what I mean? He was kind of like weirdly a member of his family. They even lived, you talk about in this book, when Brady goes to tell him, I'm not coming back, he goes to his house. But their houses are what, like three minutes from each other?

Yeah, like four minutes. And they clearly spent time off the field, which Belichick didn't do with either of them. So I do think that it was some two-on-one stuff with those guys against Belichick. And maybe that plays a part of it with the Jimmy thing. The big takeaway from reading your book to me was just like, man, I can't believe this lasted this long.

There's just so many ways this should have not gone 19 years. And then you think like Brady is now in year 21. What's your best guess though for him? What age? Is it even guessable? Like if you told me he's going to play until he's 50, if you told me that five years ago, I would have been like, you're fucking on drugs. What are you talking about? There's no way somebody's doing that. ago, I would have been like, you're fucking on drugs.

What are you talking about? There's no way somebody's doing that. Now I'm kind of like, eh, 50? Eh. What do you think? I think it's 45. I think he doesn't know, but I do think that it's 45. I think that one of the things I write about is that one of the costs of his greatness

is just you have to be selfish to be a great athlete. And he's a great athlete many times more than the greatest athletes in terms of his dedication and how much he thinks about this. And he's talked about this publicly, that it wears on his family. The fact that he is always thinking about this stuff, that there is no off-season, that Alex Guerrero is on vacation with them, that receivers come out to vacation in Montana when they're there to run routes. He truly cannot live without this, as he said, the sickness in him that makes him want to throw

a spiral. And his family has felt that. And I do think that there is going to be a critical point. And I think it's probably 45. I mean, he won the Super Bowl. The very first thing Gisele said to him was, you don't have nothing left to prove, right? And he's like, I'm going to change the subject. Right. And Gisele's probably the one that's been pushing him to quit

at least for five years now. Yeah. Something like that. Certainly, she must have thought, if he wins in Tampa, that'll be it. Nope. Yep. And now it just seems like he's,

he's not, it really seems like, and I've, I've talked about this before on my pod, like the, the weird similarities with him and Tom Cruise with some of this stuff where it really seems like he feels like he's achieving like this higher being that now he wants to spread the wealth of these things he's found

to other people. He had that crazy stuff about, what was it? I can't get a concussion. What was that whole thing about concussion maintenance so you don't get concussions and just things that are honestly kind of crazy. Yeah. Well, in his book, he basically said, this book is the tool to not getting injured in football. And if you get injured, it's your fault. And I remember a hall of fame quarterback once read, you know, he was like, so what, if I get a concussion, it's my fault. Right. Um, so. I mean, he took a big hit last week in the Rams game, like a really big one where he kind of totally didn't see the guy hitting him. And he got crunched on both sides and he went down, he got up.

And I'm like, you know, I'm older than him, obviously, but 43, 44 was, I just felt like physically your body starts to change, starts to slow down. I was thinking like, how many times is he going to get up from that? Yeah. He's still 44. He can put all the shit in his body and he can eat almonds and drink carrot juice and whatever else he's doing. But at some point, you're 44 and your vertebrae has taken X amount

of whatever's. And at some point, you're not getting up from that. But now I don't know what to believe. Yep. So you think the Patriots lose? I think the Patriots are going to win. I mean, that's not a rational... You think the Patriots are going to win on Sunday? That's what my heart says. My mind thinks

that they're going to lose, but I just have a weird feeling. I don't know what. I also have the weird feeling. I'm about to do million-dollar picks with Schrager and everybody is going to put the Chiefs and the Bucks and the Tees and be like, oh, Tom Brady plus the Pats looked bad last

week. Look, the Pats looked bad last week. And hey, look, the Pats have been in this spot plenty of times over the last 20 plus years with Bill Belichick. It's like, they're seven point underdogs at home. I would just be careful. I would advise everyone to be careful. I can't wait to watch. Seth, good luck with the book.

What are people saying? Are people being nice in Boston? They're being pretty nice. And I appreciate that. I'm doing a lot of Boston stuff and I really appreciate the support out there. And I've appreciated your friendship and the fact that you gave it an early read and gave me some good notes. And I appreciate it very, very much. And it was great talking to you, man. All right. Best of luck with the book. Say the title again, because it's Better to be Feared. Yeah. All right. Check that out. Seth,

congrats on everything. Thank you. Thanks, bud. How can you be sure your child is making the right decision when choosing a university? The smart approach is to look at the facts, like the fact that York U graduates have a 90% employer satisfaction rate. That's because across its three GTA campuses, York U's programs are strategically designed to prepare students for a meaningful career and long-term success. Join us in creating positive change at yorku.ca slash write the future.

All right, Peter Schrager is here as he is every Thursday. We won $127,000 last week on a miracle field goal by our guy, Justin Tucker for million dollar picks up 739,000 for the season. We haven't had that kick-ass week. I actually think it's going to be this week. The first slate I really liked. And of course, Pat's bucks looming over everything.

I already talked to Seth about it, but give us your take on Pat's Bucks. It could go one of two ways. It could be the Buccaneers come in and he does the LFG stuff out of the tunnel and he's listening to Jay-Z and he comes out and torches the place. Or I could see Belichick

crafting together this mastermind defensive game plan and hanging in it late and somehow coming away with a victory and all of us being like, see, that's why he's the best coach ever. I really don't have a read on it, Bill. And I think everyone I've spoken to is like, oh, this is Buccaneers.

It's just because of personnel and Brady's not going to lose this game. I don't know, man. I've seen this coach do enough to teams that I thought were unstoppable over the years that I'm not going to put anything in pen on this one. Well, there's seven-point underdogs at home, which is an

automatic Belichick red flag. I think he's been a home dog probably half of the time was just last year with Cam Newton. But just in general, it's always a good spot for them. I think they either get killed or it's like

two minutes left in the game, wide open like one of those things. No in between. I know you've done the best Patriots wins over the last two. What's his best coaching performance? Is it like the AFC Championship against the Colts? Is it the Super Bowl against the Rams? First or second one? What is the one that you point to? Because I think

he might need one of those type of performances. Right. I would think the first Rams Super Bowl to? Because I think he might need one of those type of performances. Right. I would think the first Rams Super Bowl. Seth and I just talked about that Ravens game during the Seattle Super Bowl year when I really do think the Ravens were probably better. I was there. And they fell behind by

14 twice and just kind of gritted that one out. Those are probably the two. The Rams Super Bowl just completely demolishing the Goff-McVay era to the point that I think McVay for probably two years was like,

I just can't. I need a better quarterback. I just, I can't do, that can't happen again. So that was a good one. But I would say probably those three. Well,

let's talk about the Rams quick because you tried to talk me out of going against them last week I tried they're one of the teams I was looking at I have a little tease parlay bracket for million dollar picks and it's Chiefs minus seven over

Eagles Rams minus four and a half over Cardinals Packers minus six and a half over Steelers and Bucks minus seven over the Patriots I'm not saying we're due all those but four obvious teasers the teasers have been pretty reliable so far this year. So we'll, we can start with the Rams cause we can either put them in a parlay or in a,

in a tease. I'm a believer. They're healthy. McVay owns the Cardinals owns them paying rent on them. The line's only four and a half. Seems low. Seems like, uh, the cards getting little respect because of the way

they started this season. But as long as the Rams are healthy and running on both sides the way they're running, I'm riding it because it's a team that the big X factor with them was what happens

if they have injuries? What happens if, you know, they're not going to have depth because they're so top heavy. But right now it's working and they're top heavy and they're running all cylinders. So until that changes, I think they're a legitimate shot at maybe at least going 7-0, 8-0 before it starts to get dicey. What do you think? Where do you stand? I think they're the best team in the league. And I think they're the best team in the league by a large margin. And they're playing at home against a team that one coach has never lost to the other coach and they play twice a year um I think this one is Rams and I think the Rams win pretty handedly honestly

and you know I I think highly of Cliff and I think that eventually he will get this just isn't the week like this Rams team is sizzling right now and And as good as the Cardinals are, I think this is one of those deals where just every different matchup, I think is in the Rams favor. Quarterback, I think Stafford over Kyler. I think defense, I think the Rams defense is playing better than the Cardinals defense is at the moment.

And through three games, Stafford is having career highs in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns, passer rating, like He's red hot. The X factor here is Ramsey and Hopkins, and they've played so many times going back to the Jacksonville and Houston days.

And for whatever reason, just Ramsey does really well against DeAndre Hopkins and can take him out of the games, especially since they both got to Arizona and L.A. They've had two matchups only, and one of them, it wasn't even Kyler, week 17, he got injured. But Ramsey last year in the two matchups lined up on Hopkins 55 of 68 times.

Hopkins combined in those games for next to nothing. Did absolutely nothing. So in the second game, which was a must win game, and I know Kyler went out with an injury, they needed Hopkins to step up. And a lot of people around the league were like, where was Hopkins?-win game, and I know Kyler went out with an injury, they needed Hopkins to step up. And a lot of people around the league were like, where was Hopkins? I don't care if it's back or forth.

Four catches, 35 yards, and the biggest game of the season was no show. And Ramsey completely took him out of the ballgame. So I think if Ramsey can handle Hopkins, and then you're going to make the rest of them beat you, and it's Kyler who's had great success, but his numbers against the Rams are not good. And just to rattle off some of them that you're like, okay, he's 0-4. He's averaging less than 200 yards per game. And for whatever reason,

he doesn't connect on these deep passes against the Rams. He hasn't. He hasn't had that big splash play. Meanwhile, Stafford does against the Cardinals historically and has all season. So I look at it that way. I look at McVay and Cliff's relationship. And I know I spoke to the Arizona guys for a while earlier this week. And I'm like, do you use that as like a bulletin board thing? Like we haven't beaten these guys. If we're ever going to be taken legit.

And their response was kind of like, it's new guys. You know, we got new guys in this locker room. I don't think that plays. That doesn't really play with this crew. And more or less it was, we're going to play our game and they're going to have to stop us, which means they're not doing any bulletin board material. There's such great respect for the two coaches, but I just think McVay's got cliff on this one. So I would say Rams.

And I kind of feel confident enough, not only four and a half, I feel like this might not even be that close. So the Cardinals beat the Titans in week one, which is, I think, one of the weird week one games. There was some COVID stuff going on, hot weather, all that stuff. Vikings, basically the Vikings gave it away just because the field goal kicker missed it, which was great for a million dollar pick.

It's great for us. We're red hot. And then the Jags. Jags hung around, man. Jags hung around and that game was hairy. And we had them, we had the cards at Million Dollar Picks last week too. Or no, we didn't have it last week, but I ended up

betting on them. That's how I came up with the cocaine cardinals because you just can't stay away. It's like they're like a drug problem. In this game, from what I remember of that Vikings game, which now was almost two weeks ago, I just felt like the Vikings could move the ball

up and down the field on them. And the Rams are a better version of the Vikings. Yeah. With a better coach and they're better on the other end. And it's just, I like the matchup. The only thing that worries me is you have a Seahawks game on Thursday, week five for the Rams.

I know, quick turnaround. So you have Cardinals in this game and then you have another NFC West bloodbath four days later. And that scares me. That little guillotine hanging over them. That's it. Other than that, I'm not

scared of this game. And I think they're too fast on defense for Kyler to do the one-man show John Wick thing on them. I don't think it's happening against the Rams. I don't think so either. So I just, did you, did you, I know you were early on it and we talked about it and we brought Craig in,

like Cooper Cup is doing things that it's not easy. I think he's the best right now. He leads in all the specific categories. And did you see the route he ran on that Carlton Davis, which they call the Ocho route, where he comes in, comes out, comes in again, and then comes out again. It was amazing. It was incredible. And McVeigh spoke about it publicly. And Jordan Rodrigue, who does stuff for the Athletic for them, has a whole article on it. It's good.

But I spoke with Sean and he's like, how did that come to be? It's a route that we had Golden Tate on Good Morning Football. He's like, I've never seen that. He's like, I've put up multiple thousand yard seasons, Pro Bowl seasons. I've never seen that route where you in real time, in, out, in, out. And it was, they tried it once in practice and Stafford and Cup practiced it, practiced it, practiced it and asked McVay,

like, can we incorporate this route? And he's like, yeah, sure. If you guys can do it and you don't, that's how this is happening. Like there is this weird thing where it's like on the fly, let's create, let's try new things, which football hasn't seen.

And certainly McVay hasn't seen with a quarterback. So everyone's riding high. All it takes is a loss to humble them. But right now they're feeling really good in LA. And I think that home field, which has always been a joke in LA and at the Coliseum was nothing.

You saw that place. And I know Brady was in town, but that's the hope that they have the celebrities and it has some buzz and it has some juice. And Larry David and Dave Winfield and North Turner can show up. Like that's the hope that they get those kinds of celebrities. Yes.

I thought the crowd, I thought the crowd affected the game. It was loud. And that, that there was like a real energy to it. And you know, you said this before the year and I made fun of you, but the Deshaun Jackson,

as long as he's going to stay healthy, it's still scary for the other team to have him out there. Cause the one thing he can do is run a straight line as fast as anybody in the league. You have to worry about it. He's 34 years old. And all they tell him to do is go as fast as you can, go straight. And there's only one shot a game. But guess what?

He had two last week. And one of them, he's carrying the ball with one hand. They're loaded. They're loaded. I'm not betting against them. Let's go with them. So we're going to have them. They're minus 4.5.

They're minus 225. So betting against them. So we're going to have them. They're minus 4.5. They're minus 2.25. So I like them. The Chiefs, they're minus 7 or minus 3.10 over the Eagles. Only red flag in this game was how bad the Eagles looked last week, but this comes down to like, alright, come on. Are the Chiefs really going to go 1-3?

And you think they're probably two plays away from being 3-0. Super sloppy. Week 2 and week 3. Just basically gave away games. And you think like they're probably two plays away from being three, you know, super sloppy. Uh, we two and week three just basically gave away games. I don't know what my homes was doing near the end in that, uh, on that throw,

which was just super sloppy. And you know, when he plays like that, it does open the door for the ridiculous. I don't know. Is Herbert the guy now, even though it's like September, my home says this whole track record is one of the P's on a Superbowl.

Like let's settle down with that. I love Herbert. Um, but I also, you know, the chiefs, this is like the perfect situation for them with the teas. There's a little bit of concern.

It's like, what's going on there? Can they stop the run? Why do they look so sloppy? It's like, great. Okay. I'm pretty sure they can beat the Eagles and I'm pretty sure they're not going to go one and three. It is in Philly, but I'm not worried about this

game. Are you? No. And there's so much to take from the way that game went down and the way they lost and the way they talked about it afterwards. And I know people roll their eyes with, no one listens to press game, post game press conference talk, but like Clyde Edwards Hilaire was like, we, we beat ourselves. We can't turn the ball over four times. They asked Mahomes, like, you're not going to win games. At no point was it like, the better team won today. So like the Chiefs in their building, and they felt the same way against the Ravens. Like we shouldn't have fumbled. So they're one and two. They think they should be three and O. They're not losing three games in a row with Patrick Mahomes at the

quarterback position. And if you look at it, like, at it, this is the first time they've ever had a losing record with Mahomes. It's the first time they've had a losing record since week 10 of 2015. And the truth is, the Eagles just don't have a lot of good players. The Eagles might be fun moments here and there, and Jalen Hurts can make some plays, but you go up and down the roster, they're just, they don't have the talent to compete with Kansas City. So if it gets to be a shootout or if it gets to be, hey, we need to go touchdown for touchdown. Like I have no confidence that Eagles offense can generate the points. I think as we look at it, week one, it's not a liar, but week one, Falcons was a really good

matchup for the Eagles after preparing all off season and coming out house on fire. Ben Solak called it on the ringer. He was like, it was super gimmicky what the Eagles were doing. The ball was going three yards per player, 3.7, whatever it was. And the Falcons stink, as we now know. And it's also, you know, Ben's right, and we thought

the Falcons were going to have this high-powered offense that was going to be able to do it. They don't. And that's just teams are revealing themselves. It's not there yet. It might be. Chiefs will not lose this game. Yeah, we don't need to dwell on it. I have a question on the Falcons. I think Roethlisberger's done.

He's done, and now he was done last year. And they doubled down. They doubled down, and it's like, all right, well, maybe a better line, better running back, and he'll get in better shape, but he's done. I think it's over. And I don't think Sal and I, we did a whole thing about, does he have eight games left to start for the Steelers or whatever?

I think he's done. Is Matt Ryan done? Is he close? Are we 80% there? Cause he looks awful. He does not look good. And they beat the Giants and he generates the points and you come out of that and you're like, we should feel good about the Falcons. No.

He could not throw the ball more than 10 yards in that game. He wasn't finding receivers. It doesn't look right yet. And this is what... You know what's even worse for him? And this is an old quarterback thing where it's like they don't want to stay in the pocket for the extra split second

and they don't trust themselves. Throwing the ball away. In chaos, right? He doesn't want to get hit. He doesn't't want to stay in the pocket for the extra split second, and they don't trust themselves. Throwing the ball away. In chaos, right? He doesn't want to get hit. He doesn't really want to move around. So you start checking down and taking easy throws or just trying to get rid of it a split second. He just doesn't, he's just not.

I mean, it started last year, but it's now he is a below average quarterback, in my opinion. This is the first time in his career he's had an offensive head coach. He's always had a defensive-minded head coach, whether it be Mike Smith, whether it be Dan Quinn, whether it be even Raheem Morris last year,

who by trade is a defensive coach. And everyone thought that Arthur Smith and him would have this instant gel. It hasn't happened yet. And I think even Arthur, it's going to maybe take a little longer than I thought. And I know I was very high on what he was bringing to the table because of what he draws up

and how much respect the other offensive coaches have for him. We haven't seen it yet in Atlanta. And I don't think Matt Ryan necessarily looks like, and, you know, two years from now, we'll look back on this, they had the fourth overall pick and they took a tight end when there was two quarterbacks, Fields and Mack Jones.

They didn't take one of those guys. So it'll be interesting to see how the Matt Ryan chapters end with Atlanta. It's only defensible if you think you can get three to four years out of Matt Ryan, which I was actually, I thought I was like, yeah, that makes sense to me because Matt Ryan, he's not that old. But from what we've seen, it's just not good. They're getting one and a half at home against Washington. And as you know, people listen to the dollar picks.

I stay away from games with two bad teams in them. But I mentioned the Steelers and the whole Roethlisberger being nothing because they're playing in Green Bay. They're only getting six and a half because people are scared of Tomlin. I'm scared of Tomlin. I'm not going against Tomlin as a six and a half point underdog with like a seemingly dead quarterback. This is what he loves. This is what he lives for.

And TJ Watt is expected to play. He's practicing this week. And they are such a different team with him on the field. So six and a half points, I think they might win this game outright. I don't know. Just like back against the wall, Tomlin, classic game.

Let's go. Let's find a way to figure this out. He's a really good coach. And so I wouldn't bet against him. We see this the same way. Steelers are plus 225 to win outright. Yeah. I wouldn't bet that straight up,

but they might be coming up in underdog parlay. They're crossing off the Packers. They're out. They looked pretty good last week, but I don't trust them either. Do you? No, because they gave up that lead at the end. They should have won They looked pretty good last week, but I don't trust them either. Do you? No, because they gave up that lead at the end. They should have won that game going away.

And like, I don't know. They're three games. Nothing to, you know, Packers fans would say, quit, you know, shitting on the Packers. But they lost the first one 38-3, which is crazy. And then the second game, they were losing to the Lions. The third game, they should have won handedly. And then the Niners creep all the way back

and needed a final, you know, miracle drive from Rodgers with 37 seconds. So I don't feel great about the Niners creep all the way back and needed a final miracle drive from Rodgers with 37 seconds. So I don't feel great about the Packers right now. And Jimmy G was just literally trying to give them the ball multiple times. Here, take it. I want to throw you another pick. And either they were you know, that wasn't a great

win as weird as that sounds. Last one for a tease is Bucks-Pats, which is minus seven. We're going to circle back to that when we get million Dollar Picks because I have an idea for that game. Straight up, we have three that I really like and feel free to throw in

any. Now, the first one I know you're going to talk me out of and I'm ready to be talked out of it. I actually, I want to be talked out of it. I'm the guy in college who's like, hey, should I ask that girl out who lives in our hall? And I need you to be like, don't. Don't ask her out. We have to see her. It's September.

Yeah, she's five rooms away. Don't do it. I like the Vikings plus two and a half at home against Cleveland. So do the whole, we haven't talked about this, just do the whole Stefanski coming home. Don't do this. Do it for me. This girl is blasting Indigo Girls or Annie DeFranco and you just don't want to go near that dorm room. Stefanski coming home. Don't do this. He needs this game. Do it for me. This girl is blasting Indigo Girls or Annie DeFranco.

And you just don't want to go near that dorm room. Stefanski, he worked for Zimmer for six years, 14 years in Minnesota. He was the tight ends coach, the running backs coach, the quarterbacks coach. And just don't be confused by the two touchdown win against Seattle last year. Seattle last week, Seattle was moving the ball right up and down the field. Stefanski knows that defense inside and out. He knows that personnel inside and out. You know,

you saw what Miles Garrett did last week, obviously against an inept Chicago, you know, defensive offensive line, but I would not bet against Stefanski in this game. He's a smart dude and he knows the entire Minnesota roster inside and out and has a better roster on his side. I would not go Minnesota.

I'd like this Minnesota team. Talk it out. Let me hear. I'm not saying this week I like them because I think Cousins, he's done this before. First half Kirk. I really think they can move the ball. Now, why I'm

staying away, the Stefanski thing. The Stefanski thing. The Stefanski thing, because he's going to know the team, right? He's going to have ideas on what to do. I always get nervous when the old coordinator comes back home. Also, I think the Browns might have a good

defense. And I'm not just saying that because they look great against Matt Nagy and Justin Fields last week. They have way more speed than they did last year. The Notre Dame linebacker who I remember watching that draft. Jeremiah Owusu Karamoa. Great name, number 28. He was supposed to go in the, what, 16 to 22 range? Yeah, he had a rare heart condition that was spotted by some doctors that just

got around the league and team stayed away. The Browns were shocked he was sitting there in the 50s. Shocked. I mean, it's unbelievable. They got a first-round pick in the 50s combined with all the other stuff they have. Odell came back. Looked good. Odell looked okay. Yeah. Odell had a really good game and it got

overshadowed by Fields' performance the next morning, but the Browns moved the ball and Odell Beckham was really, really solid in that game. So my thought is, I don't want to take the Browns. I don't trust Baker in Minnesota. I think it's a stay away. My thought is, if the Browns can beat Minnesota, which is great for me because I have a big Browns division bet and a whole bunch of other stuff. And then that'll throw people off the scent on Minnesota even more.

And I actually believe in Minnesota as like a 9-8. You still like it? You know, 8-9, kind of frisky. They have a couple upsets in them teams. So I'm going to stay away from them this week. The team I'm not staying away from are the Seahawks of Seattle. They're plus three. Okay.

Plus three in San Francisco. As you said, they move the ball all three weeks. They do. Three straight weeks of the ball was moving around and things were happening and the Titans game was just a dumb loss that had a weird momentum shift. I believe in momentum. Other people don momentum shift. I believe in momentum.

Other people don't. I do believe in momentum. Something happened in that game and you could see it. And all of a sudden Seattle's on their heels and it got weird. And then last week, whatever, shit happens. I think they either win or I think it's a three-point game. From what I've seen in the 49ers, I don't like the running backs at all. The wide receiver stuff seems super clumsy to me.

Their defensive line isn't nearly as dominant as I thought it was going to be. And Jimmy G throws two to three balls basically up in the air. And it's like anybody can get three of his passes per game. I think Seattle can win this game outright. So I don't know whether I'm going to do the plus three or the money line. I always like the plus three just because you buy a little buffer on that. But what do you think? What would you do? Plus three or money line? Truth is, it's hard to assess either team. Seattle beat Indianapolis pretty easily in Indy, blows that lead to Tennessee, and then loses by two touchdowns to a Vikings team that they

probably should have beaten. And then San Francisco beat two terrible teams and then lost to Green Bay. But the Seattle thing, that's so weird, here's what it is. They start the games off so good on offense. So they scored 62 points in the first half, those first three games. They've scored a combined 13 points in the second half in overtime on those three games. That's the most, they have the most points in the first half of the league. They have the least points in the second half of the league, which have the least points in the second half of the league, which is such a strange thing. You have to think that corrects itself.

And they've abandoned the run in the second half of all these games for whatever reason. But at the end of the day, it's Russell Wilson. And he has had really, really good outings against the San Francisco 49ers defense,

even when it was better than this. So Russ is 15 and four against the Niners, including the playoffs in his career. He's eight and one the first time these two teams play, which means the first time they're getting a look at Russell, he always has the advantage. And the truth is, at the end of the day, it's a three-point spread.

This game's in San Francisco. They're not scared to go there. These are division rivals. And I'll take Russell Wilson over Jimmy Garoppolo when he's asking me what to come down to. I'll go with the quarterback. Yeah, and the best thing about this game is they could still lose by a field goal and it's a push and you get to move on and wipe your hands clean. I don't see a scenario

where San Francisco beats Seattle handily. I do think this will be a narrative game, though, in this respect. I like monikers like that. You've got Kyle Brandt, like his angry run thing, which is great. Great stuff. I love angry runs. It's really good. Yeah. This is a narrative game to me. Seahawks win. Now the Niners

move into that. Ah, Trey Lance. Is it time? What do we do? Jimmy G? Should they trade him? What about the Steelers? 19 stories come out of that. If Seattle loses, now it's like, hmm, what's going on here? Is this the end of the Russell Wilson era?

They traded some first-round picks for Adams? Why isn't their defense better? By the way, Adams threw three games. Highest paid safety in the league. They've traded for highest paid defensive guy in that position. Zero sacks, zero tackles for a loss through three games. And that's what you got them for. And they're giving up a lot of yards.

It's actually to the point where a lot of Seattle fans are asking, not what's wrong with Jamal Adams, but like, is this defense fixable? And it's week three. And that's a real concern. Well, no team is picked apart or overanalyzed quite like the Seattle Seahawks because they have half of the national media

is from Seattle at this point. Let me hear. It's just me and Danny Kelly. There's a lot of angst in that fan base. Just in general, the Mariners are making a late wildcard run. There's a lot of angst lately, but I think if they lost this game, I do think the Wilson

trade stuff starts again, right? There'll be no basis to it. Somebody will start it on Monday. Be something that'll get floated out there and it'll just, here we go. Why isn't Russell Wilson the guy getting traded to Miami? Why Deshaun Watson? Why aren't they going after Russell? All that shit will start.

You're writing our show for Good Morning Football. Thank you. I need this stuff. That's good. I like that. Well, the Seahawks are going to win. It's fine. Speaking of the Dolphins,

minus one and a half over the Colts. I'm kind of a Brissette believer. I don't think he's bad. I feel the same way about him as I do with Minshew. Like, he's not bad. You love Minshew. They're not a cross-off. Yeah, I love both those guys.

They're not a cross-off. I thought they did a good job in that Raiders game. I was terrified the whole game. We had the Raiders and Million Dollar Picks. And every time I thought the Dolphins were dead, they were like Michael Myers-ing it and coming back.

And I just think the Colts suck. Honestly, I don't think they're good. I don't think they're well coached this year for whatever reason. Their quarterback situation's a disaster. Their defense isn't as good as we thought. Their offensive line

is a little banged up. That was supposed to be the strength of their team. And I think they're actually not a good football team. So the Dolphins are one and a half. And people are like, oh, Colts don't want to go on four. But Dolphins don't want to go one and three either. I just think they have more talent.

I think they have a better team. What do you think? The offense has been so bad for Miami. I know Brissette made some plays happen with his legs. But besides the Bears, I'm not sure if there's a less inspiring offensive attack. And when they're up 14-0 and they throw that wide receiver screen, it ends up being a safety to make it 14-2 and then 25 more points. It's terrible. It's terrible. And they've got an interesting deal. They've got co-offensive coordinators

right now. So Studsville is a running backs, and Godsey is an old quarterbacks coach, and it's like, I don't know who's calling the plays, I don't know where the direction's coming from. And in good confidence, I don't think the Colts are going 0-4, and I think Carson Wentz is better than Jacoby Brissett. And I thought that the home field advantage for the Dolphins would come into play

in that Week 2 game against the Bills, and they lost 35-0. I don't think there is much of a home field advantage. I like the Colts in this one, but I understand if you want to take the Dolphins. Personally, I would go with Andy. Interesting. You like the Colts. I do. Back against the wall.

Gritty Pats win in week one. Yes. The Bills game just got weird in week two, and also the Bills now, I think, have reestablished themselves as who they are. Yep. They should have beaten the Raiders. I felt really lucky winning that game.

It was a really stupid game to win. And I liked how they kept fighting back. I don't know. I don't see them losing the Colts. So we might agree to disagree on this one. That's fair. You do what you got to do. Explain to me this.

Why is this line, usually the home team is favored by three. Yeah, it is weird. If the two teams are, usually the home team is favored by three. Yeah, it is weird. If the two teams are even, the home team's favored by three. Why is this line one and a half? What is it about the Colts that I'm not seeing? I think it's more about the Dolphins and the lack of confidence in Miami.

I mean, the Colts, these guys, I mean, Wentz will be playing. Jonathan Taylor will be playing. They have not been playing well, but they will be playing. They've got their guys. They've got their guys. They've got their guys. I don't know what to make

of this Dolphins team. I know you're saying you're a Brissette guy. I was not blown away with him last week. I thought he fought. I'm saying I'm a Brissette guy. If he's your backup, normally your backup comes in and it's a disaster. He's okay. He made some plays. They were down eight.

He's got a fourth and two touchdown. And then they got the two point. That's not nothing in Vegas where each plays do or die. You know, what do you think of the Watson stuff? Picking up a little steam this week. I'm not sure if you saw that on your radar, but the whispers,

the whispers are getting louder. And, uh, I work with Jay Glazer on Fox. He came out and said, Texans have softened their asking price a little bit, but we still don't have anything from the league. We still don't have something that comes out and saying this guy's on the commissioner's exempt list. He's still being paid. And I think what

the Texans strategy was on this, and I say this with some insight on it, was let's see how the season starts. Let's see how it goes. Teams, whether it be Miami, whether it be Carolina, whether it be Denver, one of these teams is going to say after four weeks, like, all right, let's make a move. Like, we're not going 2-14 this year. We're not going 2-50. The Dolphins make a lot of sense here.

I don't know. If things continue to slide out of control, I wouldn't be shocked if that stuff even gets even louder. I agree. The Tua thing is a disaster for them. It's a flat out disaster. I just am not sure he's ever an above average starting quarterback. We've seen no evidence at all. On top of it, you have the Herbert thing, which I compared with Sal on Sunday's pod to Durant and Oden, where it's like Portland takes Oden. Seems great on paper. There's some red flags,

there's some health stuff, and they're kind of ignoring the superior ceiling of the other guy. And then the other guy turns into the other guy. And now it's like, oh my God, what do we do? So the Watson thing kind of throws people off the scent of that, but you know, he's getting suspended for the year and the stuff with that. I don't know that. I don't know that. I don't know if Watson's being suspended for the year. He's not suspended. Really? He's not suspended. There's like 25 cases. I mean, how does he play? There hasn't been a decision by the league.

There hasn't been anything that has been made. And essentially, these other teams, they've had their people investigating everything they can. Rusty Hardin, who is Clemens' old lawyer, is Deshaun Watson's lawyer. And essentially, these teams are allowed to ask, hey, what do you got? What do you think?

I don't know. We're now going into October, Bill, and there's still nothing from the league. Like, I'm not sure he's suspended. Well, nothing from Deshaun Watson either. I think, first of all, what's the trade? Is Tua in the trade? Maybe.

Is it Tua and first-round picks? I think what they want, what they say originally before the season started, and I got this on good, you know, background, is three first round picks and three additional assets. But they're not getting that.

Yeah, you're not getting three first round picks. Especially not this late into the season. So let's say they lower that to two first round picks and two additional assets,

which could be Tua, which could be a wide receiver, or it could be a lineman, or it could be a couple later round picks. But say it's two picks and two additional assets, which could be Tua, which could be a wide receiver, or it could be a lineman, or it could be a couple of later round picks, but say it's two picks and it's, um, it's two first round picks and it's, you know, a veteran player and it's a third round pick. But what do they want to play for? They're going to go two and 15. Like I would want two first, a second and Tua and like, all right, let's call it in. Yeah. And if that's the case, that, that, that loads them up for this year's draft and they move

on and they've got two to hold the, you know, to hold it down for now. I just, I wouldn't until the trade deadline, I'm not taking Deshaun Watson off the table for any of these teams. And the dolphins are fascinating because they, they believe they're a playoff team. And if the quarterback position is what's holding them back, there's a really viable quarterback. They just have to go all in and say, we trust what we have. And if they don't trust

what they have, stay away. You just made my case. The Dolphins believe they're a playoff team. I don't think they're losing the fucking Colts and Carson Wentz

on his two sprained ankles like hobbling around. Like, I'm happy if I lose money to the Colts. Like, if the Colts beat me, fine,

take my money. I don't believe in that team. I don't. Yeah. We're going to take a break and we're going to go over a fascinating, fascinating group of underdog parlay picks. All right. Coming back.

Underdog parlay of the week. There's a lot of choices here. I'm just going to throw these at you one at a time. Giants plus 285 against the Saints. Almost three to one. I can't. Okay. I'm happy to cross them off.

I'm just, I'm presenting it to you. I'm like historically burned by Giants games in New Orleans. I was, I remember the Joe Horn game when he took out the cell phone on a Sunday night. I remember a couple of years ago, it was like 52 to 40. Giants do not fare well in New Orleans.

And the Giants right now, I can't go near them. Are we surprised that they're this poorly coached or have looked this poorly coached? They're really sloppy. This was supposed to be the thing that they were good at. They're supposed to be a crisp, bad team, but now they're a sloppy, bad team.

They're going to be smart. Clock management's going to be good. I mean, that Washington loss, when you have a 340-pound defensive tackle, Dexter Lawrence, go off sides on a game-winning field goal attempt. Chris Carter was on Good Morning Football with us the next morning.

He said it great. He's like, that man has never blocked a field goal in his life. What is he doing? And Judge is a special teams coach. Then some of the clock management stuff, week one, when he throws a challenge flag on fourth down after the score, and it's like, no, you can't do that. It's a penalty, little things. But with the Giants, everyone I talk to, it's like, it goes back not to judge. The players like judge. And yeah,

Jason Garrett's the name that keeps on coming up. But this offense is just, you've got a lot of talent, make it work. And he hasn't been able to. It just seems like they should be chucking the ball downfield. Like the 1970s Raiders. I'm in New York,

Bill. It's my takeaway, knowing nothing. No, but the Jets and Giants are 0-3 and they're both basically irrelevant. And it's not even apple-picking season yet. Like, it sucks. It's pretty tough.

Wah! Next one. We like this one a little more out of the New York teams. Jets plus 270 over the Titans. Tell me. I'm going to make the case. How could you? I'm going to make the case.

I love it. Let me hear it. Titans have no receivers. No. It's true. Titans have a terrible defense. The Jets' defense, it's not awful. They're actually fast.

They can move around. In that Denver game, once they're down 20 to nothing and your quarterback can't complete a pass, you know you're not going to win. Maybe not as great for the defense. But if they were ever going to win a game early in the season, this is the kind of matchup where Zach Wilson, he'll actually have time to do stuff.

If he has any talent at all or any reason to be starting a football game, this is the team you'd want to play, right? So if they can just get a lead, yeah, just get a lead. Get a little momentum. And now you have the Titans who, if they fall behind, how lead, yeah, just get a lead, get a little momentum, and now you have the Titans who, if they fall behind, how are they going to throw the ball? They don't have any receivers.

What are they going to do? So, I don't know. For plus 270, it's intriguing. What? Talk me out of it. I can't. I just... Come on. The Jets, they're not stopping Derrick Henry. They're not beating Derrick Henry and Tannehill.

There's enough guys on that Tennessee team. And I hate to be so dismissive because I would love nothing more than for at least one of these teams in my backyard to give us something to watch in the local games. But I just don't see it. It's going to be a long year for Jets fans. I don't know.

I don't have many wins on there. I don't think this is the one. I don't think Tennessee is a playoff team if they put it all together. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are not going to make or break this game. It's just there's too many talent deficiencies on the Jets side of the ball for me to pick them in good faith. Are we sure the Titans

are even remotely good? I think they are. They're 2-1. Raiders plus 138 against the Chargers. It's so funny. The Raiders just cannot get respect from anybody. You should have lost that one. You should have lost that one. You should have lost that one. I disagree.

I think they're pretty good. They can't run the ball is the thing that is kind of that Peyton Barber. At the end, he was doing it. He was carrying the ball. I know, but he's just like, it's like we have Brandon Bolden. He's kind of there, Brandon Bolden. I don't know. You and I have done the Raiders week

one when they won that miracle game against the Ravens andiders week one when they won that miracle game against the Ravens and then week three when they won that miracle game against the Dolphins after being down 14-0 before the game even started. I feel like it's kind of fun to root for the Raiders. Why don't we? Let's get them in there. So you like them in this game?

Yeah, let's go. It's been so fun. Let me flip this around. What scares you about the Chargers? They're really good. And he's awesome. And Herbert, I mean, with those, you take the two red zone interceptions

away from the Dallas game, Herbert has had an outstanding season. And last week to go into Arrowhead, that is the biggest confidence builder you could possibly find. And I think you talked about it with Sal. And you guys were good on Monday when it's fourth and nine.

And Staley's like, no, I can go for it. Like it's a little thing and they got it, the pass interference. And of course they botched the time management down the stretch and Mahomes got the ball. It doesn't matter. The fact he went to that team a year after Anthony Lynn punted the ball on fourth and two

in a similar situation. And then Mahomes came right down the fight. They're believing in the coach. That's a cool deal. Like the Chargers have a good little thing going, but it's probably more fun to root for the Raiders in this game because we've been riding with them already this season. Let's keep going. Raiders are plus 144. Steelers plus 225. We mentioned them. So this is just, we're basically saying we trust Mike Tomlin. We don't care that your quarterback is a corpse.

Yeah, we don't. It's literally, we trust the logos of the Steelers and then, hell, let's go 1970s Raiders and let's just root for good, famous old teams from the AFC. Let's rock with it. I mean, the Steelers deal is like, they have a writer, Mark Caboli, I think it's pronounced. He said he's been covering the team for 20 years. Last week against Cincinnati was single-handedly the worst game

he's ever seen them play. And I don't think Tomlin allows them to go out that way. And they're so much better when TJ Watt is on the field. Juju wasn't practicing earlier this week, but Deontay Johnson was. They get some guys back on offense. I don't know. Packers haven't done anything to blow me away this year. I certainly don't see this as Packers 38-10 or anything.

This is a classic. We thought the Steelers were dead. Maybe if they get a lead, maybe they don't need a lot from Roethlisberger. I like them. We're not going to put them in there. Let's put them in. Last one is Panthers plus 168 over the Cowboys.

I like the Panthers a lot more earlier in the week. And the more I thought about this game, looked at it every, every year I have a blind spot with the team. I just don't see it right. And I keep trying to think this is the week. I think I just had a blind spot with the Cowboys. I actually think they might be good. If you go back and you think about the first three weeks,

that Tampa game, they really went toe-to-toe with them. That game last week on Monday, they fucking killed Philly. Killed. And they have guys on defense now, like Parsons. I think if you do,

have you done a redraft on Good Morning Football yet? Yes, and he's in the top five because he looks good. He has to be. He's unbelievable. His ability to either be linebacker or be defensive end and the way they can move him around reminds me of my son in flag football. It's just like such, such a weapon to have somebody like that. Like the ability to just move around.

The coach is like, we need play middle linebacker, play defensive end. I see a lot of Michael Parsons in my son and vice versa. All right. Can we go back a second before what I'm asking though, is you got to give us the Ben resume at flag football. Like what are you just compared to my eighth grade? I love it. Let me know.

I'm just excited. Cause we, we, we beat a rival today. I won't say who the rival is, but they, they got shut out. That's what happened. Michael Parsons. My family hasn't... My son goes to the same school as my daughter and we never won a banner.

And this is maybe my best chance. Not even in the soccer team? This football. No, it was co-ed soccer. It was the basketball team. Three straight years, losses in the finals. So this is our one chance. Cowboys.

But with the Cowboys, though, two running backs. Both good. Like, just always, like, they always have somebody good in there who can do stuff. Dax looked fantastic. Really, really psyched that he came back the way he did. And actually, there's some inventiveness with the offensive coordinator. I don't know, man.

I'm just, I had the Panthers plus 168, but now you think like no McCaffrey, no JC. Um, it, it, I, I, I'm staying away. Here's the, so the Cowboys got a defense overnight and it's,

it really is overnight because the coordinators, all the difference, Dan Quinn has brought a whole different scheme. He looks, they look great, but literally Micah and, uh, Oh,

dig a zoo way. who's number 97, are flying a little bit. They're both rookies. And then Trayvon Diggs might be their best corner, who looks outstanding. I actually wrote about it for foxsports.com. The 2020 corner draft class is actually fascinating because there were five taken in the first round.

Okuda already popped his Achilles, hasn't done anything for Detroit. CJ Henderson was a top 10 pick for the Jaguars. They traded him for like 60 cents on the dollar. You've got Arnett in the Raiders who does nothing. And then you've got AJ Terrell from the Falcons who hasn't done much. And you got the kid in Miami who hasn't done much.

But the second round guys, it's Jalen Johnson in Chicago who looks great. It's Trayvon Diggs who looks even better. And then this kid Christian Fulton for Tennessee, they all went in the second round. This Trayvon Diggs is outstanding and he's going to be a problem for teams for the next few years. He's already got three interceptions. So you put those three young guys with a new defensive scheme and you add in the old players, they have a defense and that's all they need because their offense is great.

It looks like they got four blue chippers out of these last two drafts. Maybe even more than that, but I had four for sure where it's just like these guys are blue chip starters. We had Calvin Johnson on the show today for Good Morning Football. Calvin is a man of very few words, but he was promoting his football life on NFL

Network. We basically asked him who's the young receiver that you like? He's like, his football life on NFL Network. And we basically asked him, who's the young receiver that you like? He's like, you put me on the spot. He's like, I like CeeDee Lamb. We're like, of all the young guys, CeeDee Lamb. He's like, that guy's special. He does things. I'm like, they know.

The guys like that, they know. And CeeDee's just getting started. I think that you could make the argument that here's Carolina's defense. It's great. This Dallas team is pretty good and they should win this game at one o'clock. I like that. You put,

you put Calvin Johnson on the spot asking him what young receiver he liked. Tough question. Hey, you did this job for a living for 12 years. Anybody younger than you when you watch football that you kind of like, I don't know. You put me on the spot. Oh, there's so many. All right, he's buying time.

Jesus. All right, so you're leaning toward, you like Raiders, Steelers. Raiders plus 144 with Steelers plus 225. Yeah, was Washington favored or underdogs in that game? Yeah, they're not. They don't qualify. Not big enough?

We can't put them in. But if we put the Raiders in. Okay. Plus 693. Raiders, Steelers. Kind of tasty. I mean. I'm just going to give this to you

even though you already poo-pooed it. We do a little Jets and Steelers. That is plus 1080. Let's go to Tennessee where the Jets have scored again. You're not seeing it. No, I don't know. It's actually,

I like the fact that it's at MetLife. It's in New Jersey. Oh, it's in, yeah, you're right. It's a Jets game. I kind of like that. Plus, let me throw this at you, too, with this. The Jets fans being furious that

they have already blown the first round pick to beat Tennessee. What are you doing winning? Why? Why are you doing this, guys? Alright. So, we'll do the million-dollar picks. Before we do million-dollar picks, I wanted to mention they asked me for a FanDuel boost for

Pat's Bucks. All right. Where I can affect a bet. And my boost was Mac Jones will throw more touchdown passes than Tom Brady on Sunday night. Do you believe that? I thought the odds were going to be 8-1. They gave me plus 350.

Still pretty good odds for a quarterback versus quarterback because touchdowns are so ephemeral. You're on the one-yard line, and all of a sudden, somebody's running it in. But plus 350, Mac Jones. I'm going to stay away from that. A million-dollar picks, but wanted to give that to the public.

You can go on the Fando app, go to Boost. Let me ask you one on that game. And you can find it. Yeah. What's the most compelling outcome of Sunday night's game? Like, what's the one that Monday morning has the most buzz?

Is it the Brady blowout? Is it the Belichick out duels? Like, what do you think? I think it's a shootout where Mac Jones looks really good. Brady also has a good game. And Brady's down three points with three minutes left with the ball. It's the best way this could play out.

Yeah. Or it's tie game, three minutes left. So Brady having the ball with tension and pressure with three minutes to go. I think it's going to be a really weird game, though, because you're going to have all the emotion in the beginning, and then you're also going to have the record. So the game's going to have these two separate... Stoppage of play, right? Yeah, it's like these two weird emotional peaks. The game's going to have all the emotion in the beginning, and then you're also going to have the record. So the game's going to have these two separate.

Yeah, it's like these two weird emotional peaks. The game's going to have no flow. And I think that's good for the Patriots. All right, Kyle, turn the casino camera on. Here we go. Million dollar picks. We're going for our ninth straight positive week. We've not had a monster week yet. First one.

Chiefs-Rams. Chiefs minus seven at Philly. Rams minus four and a half at the Cardinals. Now, if we parlayed this, the odds are basically the same as a tease. Okay.

So I'm going to tease it. Tease it. Let's tease it down. Chiefs to minus one. Rams to plus one and a half. Let's tease it down. Chiefs to minus one. Rams to plus one and a half. Let's go. If the Rams somehow lose by one, we still cover that. What do you think? 400K or 500K on that?

It's your money. 500K. There you go. All right, let's go. We'll open it up this week. We're putting 500K Chiefs-Rams teaser. Then I have a little surprise for you,

a little taste. We really like the Chiefs thisRams teaser. Then I have a little surprise for you, a little taste. We really like the Chiefs this week, right? We're in on the Chiefs? Love the Chiefs this week. We're in on the Chiefs. More than the Rams? More than the Rams. The first ever conditional million dollar pick

we've ever made. Wow. Chiefs-Bucks. Chiefs down to one, Bucks down to one. Wow. Chiefs, Bucks. Chiefs down to one, Bucks down to one. We're putting 200K on that. But the Chiefs win. Okay. We're putting conditional.

Another 200K on the Pats plus seven. We're going to try to middle Pats, Bucks. Okay, I'm in. So we have some million dollar picks action. So if the Chiefs have to win, if they lose, we just lose 220 on the Chiefs, Bucks. Okay, I'm in. So we have some million dollar picks action. So if the Chiefs have to win, if they lose, we just lose 220 on the Chiefs Bucks. Chiefs win. Now the conditional Pat's bet

kicks in. Now we either lose one of the bets or if it's Pat's lose by less than seven, but the Bucks win, we win both bets. So now we have some action on Brady-Mac Jones. I love it. I figured you would like it.

I sprung it on you. The first ever conditional million dollar pick. There we go. 250K. Seahawks plus three. I'm going to downgrade this by 50K just because you don't like it as much. Dolphins,

200K. Dolphins minus one and a half. I'm doing it. I'm doing it. My guy, Jacoby. I've had good luck with Jacobys in my life. You like the Colts more than me. I'm getting you a Jacoby Brissett jersey, win or lose. It's going to be in your mail. The best part is you have to root for the Dolphins now. You said it

yourself. They think they're a playoff team. If you're a playoff team, don't go one and three. Take care of business. You're in Miami. So we're doing that. And then finally, last one, underdog parlay, 33K. We haven't won an underdog parlay since week one, but we only need to win three underdog parlays this season and we win all our money for the year. We're positive. Steelers Raiders plus 693. I love it. We're putting 33K on that. The Steelers have to beat the Packers. The Raiders have to beat the Chargers.

Both on the road. And then just for fun, we're going to put 10K on the Jets to win and the Steelers to win. It's plus 1089. So Jets to win. And the Steelers to win. It's plus 1089. So Jets and Steelers. Yeah, just that little 10K flyer.

Jets with no Marcus May. Jets without any offense the last three weeks. Going to beat the Titans. Let's go. You want to scratch it? Talk me out of it. We need the money. We need the bankroll.

Cross it off? Let's do it, Bill. What are we doing? We're living. Let's go. I'm in. All right. 10K.

Why not? Listen, we bet on Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray twice in three weeks. I know. Put 10K in the Jets. I know. That is the Million Dollar Picks. Four. Week four.

We'll see if we do it. Nine straight weeks in a row. Peter Schrager, we'll see you on Good Morning Football. We'll see you on Fox on Football. We'll see you on Fox on Sunday. Are you hosting again? Is that a one-time thing? Carissa wasn't feeling well. They threw me into the hosting chair. I loved it.

It was a one-time deal. I'll be back, though. 8 a.m. Pacific, 11 a.m. Eastern, Fox NFL kickoff. I love it, man. Thank you. All right. Good to see you. Kyle Creighton produced this podcast. Go Patriots. Go Red Sox. This could be like a devastating sports weekend for me.

I'm just telling you now. Or it could be a wonderful, delightful sports weekend. We'll see how it goes. We will see you on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them. On the wayside, on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them.