The Bill Simmons Podcast - Bucks on the Brink, Giannis vs. History, Finals Leaps, and NFL Bets With Joe House

Episode Date: July 19, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss the Bucks’ Game 5 Finals win over the Suns, Giannis Antetokounmpo's enthralling basketball journey, what the Suns need in order to pull ...off a Game 6 win, and more (3:15). They then talk a little golf, NFL futures bets, Olympic basketball, and more (1:02:40). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Joe House  Producer: Kyle Crichton  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Nobody knows what's going on, but we watch the Olympics. We just turn on our TVs and become obsessed with sports we haven't thought about in four years. This is why we made the Ringer Guide to the Summer Games. I'm your host, Roger Sherman. Each day during the Tokyo Olympics, I'll tell you about a different sport, athlete, or storyline. We'll be releasing new episodes every day starting July 19th. Follow along on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts so you know exactly how to watch the Olympics. This episode is brought to you by
Starting point is 00:00:32 my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this. It's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired.
Starting point is 00:01:09 Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like.
Starting point is 00:01:23 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong. You could bet
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Starting point is 00:02:40 Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit RG-Help.com. We're also brought to you by TheRinger.com as well as The Rewatchables where we are doing Fight Club. It's going up tomorrow. Me and Chris Ryan did it. The reason we did it is because our Woodstock 99 documentary is coming on HBO on Friday. It's going to be on HBO on Friday night. It's also going to be available on HBO Max all day Friday.
Starting point is 00:03:05 It is a sneak preview of our Music Box series that we are launching later this fall. It's six documentaries in all. This is the first one we wanted to time it with the 22nd anniversary of Woodstock.
Starting point is 00:03:20 This is a great one. Directed by Garrett Price. It is about a three day weekend where basically everything goes to hell it's more of a horror movie than a music documentary but
Starting point is 00:03:29 highly recommend it can't wait for you to see it and since we had it coming we had to do Fight Club because Fight Club also came out
Starting point is 00:03:38 in 1999 it taps into some of the same themes and kind of makes sense as a combo so that was one we had been saving for the right time,
Starting point is 00:03:46 Fight Club and All Timer. And Chris and I, it's coming on Monday. Also, Joe House is coming up in a second. He just did Fairway Rolling with Nathan Hubbard where they broke down the open. Colin Maracala winning his second major. So they went on right after it was done, posted a great podcast about that.
Starting point is 00:04:05 If you want to hear us, we're going to talk about golf at the tail end here. But if you want to hear the full deep dive with House and with Nathan, you can check out Fairway, Roland. Also, we have a new podcast launching this week, Gene and Roger, which I think is launching on the Big Picture feed
Starting point is 00:04:19 the first episode this week. But it's another narrative series from us. We just finished the Len Bias series, which was awesome. What if the Len Bias story, and it's another narrative series from us. We just finished the Limp Bias series, which was awesome. What if the Limp Bias story, and now moving right to Gene and Roger, which is another really good one about Siskel and Ebert,
Starting point is 00:04:31 who had an enormous impact, not only in the movie industry, but on pop culture too, in the 70s, 80s, 90s, even the 2000s. So Gene and Roger, that's coming this week. Don't forget about the rewatchables. Don't forget about the Woodstock documentary on HBO and on HBO Max on Friday. It's coming.
Starting point is 00:04:50 Finals will be over by then. You'll have time. You'll be ready for it. Coming up, House and I are going to talk about all kinds of basketball stuff, some golf, maybe even some football futures. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we are taping this. It is mid-afternoon Pacific time on Sunday.
Starting point is 00:05:28 My buddy Joe House is here. He just did a fairway rolling earlier about the open. We'll talk about that later. I want to talk hoops. No podcast for me after Saturday night's game five because it was Saturday night. I had a birthday party to go to. Watched it at the party. It was super fun.
Starting point is 00:05:43 Came home, watched it again. Watched it a third time this morning. House, I am convinced that a Bucks title and the Giannis leap that we've had the last four weeks is the best possible thing that could have happened for the NBA. I'm talking big picture, what it means for the league, the storyline behind it, the guy who stayed, the guy who could have had everybody tempting him with, you know, come here to Dallas. You can play with Luca, uh, go to the New York Knicks. You can play there, go to one of the LA teams, go to one of the big markets. You can be a bigger star. He's not about that. Everyone said he was
Starting point is 00:06:20 never about that stays with his team. They make it better enough that they can compete for finals. They get some breaks and then they kind of hit rock bottom game five Brooklyn series. He sucks it up. And he's just like, I'm, I'm not going down. I'm doing everything I can to get here. Hurts his knee, comes back, has two iconic plays in the finals and did everything we've ever wanted from this guy. I gotta say, he's a level higher than I ever thought he was going to be as a player. And just in general, it's such a heartwarming story, isn't it? Like we have no skin in this game. I'm from, I'm a Boston fan. You're a DC fan. I don't really care who wins the finals unless I'm betting on it,
Starting point is 00:06:59 but I think this is such a great basketball story. I'm really enamored with it. It's a damn good story, and it fits exactly the overwhelming, overarching narrative of this NBA season, which to me is last man standing. I would have been fine with a Suns victory in these finals and the coronation of Chris Paul and everything that goes along with that and the resuscitation of that franchise under Monte Williams and the story of that Suns team coming together in the bubble last year and ripping off eight wins
Starting point is 00:07:40 and basically not looking back from that. That's a bunch of great storylines. And the Devin Booker, essentially. Yeah, right. The emergence of Devin Booker as a super-duper star. And Aiton. Aiton kind of winning his number one pick status. All of that, right?
Starting point is 00:07:56 Validating his number one pick status. Yes, all of those storylines that go along with the Suns fit. But this season, across the board has been about uh durability about uh you know just hanging in there it's been a war of attrition and that's been the theme that we've been seeing you know really from from the beginning with all of the crazy schedule and you know we've seen guys LeBron complained about all the injuries in the playoffs and
Starting point is 00:08:32 made the point about you know I told everybody that this was a risk I mean Chris Paul properly clap back at that with like you know we all had an opportunity to express our point of view on this before the season started but like you know Jokic won the MVP of the league because he played the most games. He was excellent.
Starting point is 00:08:51 He was terrific. He delivered that Denver team to its very highest potential. But really, he won it because he played. He played with the games. It was a reliability, durability award. And really, that's the theme of this season. And for Giannis especially to come back from an injury that to all of our eyes looked like it was going to be
Starting point is 00:09:13 a complete bunch of tears, ligament tears. And instead, he comes back and he has iconic finals performances and i am very happy to report the odds flashed up yesterday afternoon oh there was some plus odds for yannis as the mvp of these finals because you know we're sitting here looking at it to gain two to two it's either going to be cp3 or yannis and i saw plus odds for Giannis and I jumped right on it. And, you know, fingers crossed. The rest might be history. I had Bucks in six before the series, five to one odds. Didn't touch it. Didn't really bet any
Starting point is 00:10:00 individual game because I just didn't like the individual game odds. But in the back of my head, I was like, I think the Bucks can win. They're going to win game three. That's how it goes. And I think they can win game four. And then by the time we started heading to game five, so many things in the series were falling in their favor. But to me, the biggest thing was just like, I think they have the best player. And how many finals have we watched where whoever was either the best player going into it or the best player as the series evolved, that guy's team usually wins. There's exceptions. But I think that thing, I was thinking about the journey of Giannis.
Starting point is 00:10:35 We've talked a lot about him the last few weeks, but I really think it's the most important storyline in a while. You know, he comes in, grows three inches his first year. He's heading into his second year where there was some exhibition season footage. And I remember Jalen and I did one of our last previews before that series got canceled because I got suspended. And I showed him young Yana stuff. And I'm like, what's this? This looks like something.
Starting point is 00:10:59 And he's like, no, no, too early. But it was at that stage where it was like, oh, this guy might not be a bust, basically. And then over the next two years, he becomes the freak. He wins over everyone on Twitter. And it really seems like, oh, this guy's going to be a really good player. He's going to be an all-star. This is great. And then something shifts again. He wins two straight MVPs, but there still seemed that piece missing. And think all the dumb arguments we had. And we have even had some on the show about the Batman Robin stuff with him.
Starting point is 00:11:31 And it was like, he's better than Robin, but he's still going to need like his version of Kobe in the early 2000s if he's ever going to want to win the title. And, but my long point leads to this. The stuff he's done the last couple rounds where he's kind of been the Batman, not the Robin. He's added things to his game. Now the Bucks fans are like, no, no, he was,
Starting point is 00:11:51 he did this in February against Orlando. It's like, no, he's, he's solving shit. He's solving angles. It's not about just put the wall up and Giannis doesn't know what to do. Just make him shoot threes. Like he's attacking on-degree angles now. The stuff he did, there was that one play in the fourth quarter yesterday when it's like seven minutes left, and he had Aiton in front of him on the left side, and he just kind of went right at him, half-euro stepped him, went left but did a righty scoop shot and got the foul. It feels like he's got like 11 or 12 moves now
Starting point is 00:12:24 that he can kind of draw from during these games, right? Well, he's definitely helped by the fact that they're playing the Suns because they really, the Suns do theirnis and what we've seen out of him in terms of his adapting to what that defense is showing him. But Aiton as the primary defender just is not. He can't handle Giannis one on one. Well, and as a semi careful defender, too, because he doesn't want to get in foul trouble. So I think like if he had a really good backup and he gets in anyway, he put 45 minutes yesterday,
Starting point is 00:13:09 but I think it's always in the back of his mind. And Giannis has been really smart. He's just going at him. He's making him have to defend him. I don't know if he would have done that a year ago. I don't know if he would have realized like, I'm going to back you down, do this jump hook thing.
Starting point is 00:13:21 Yes, exactly. I'm going to do this little one-legged floater over your head. I don't care if you foul me. I'll make one or two. I'm just going to keep going to back you down, do this jump hook thing. I'm going to do this little one-legged floater over your head. I don't care if you foul me, I'll make one or two. I'm just going to keep going to the line and you guys will all foul out. Like he's, he doesn't look back. It's, I remember when, uh, when my daughter was playing soccer, like 10 year olds, they start really thinking about stuff like nine, 10 year olds. If they may like miss a kick or something, you can see it gets in their head. And her coach was like, just be a goldfish. Just swim around.
Starting point is 00:13:47 Whatever happened two seconds ago, doesn't matter. You're a goldfish. Just swim. And I feel like Giannis is a goldfish. So he can miss. How many free throws did he miss in the last two minutes? Like five in a row. He just kept going.
Starting point is 00:13:58 He was four of 11 from the free throw line. And he missed his last five? It should have been. It could have been. It was game-changing. It was game-changing. I mean, it permitted the Suns to come all the way back. But that's their Achilles heel, right?
Starting point is 00:14:16 And the Suns had multiple opportunities. Yeah, Milwaukee's Achilles heel is the free throw shooting. They're a guy short. Phoenix's Achilles heel is they're too small and they're two guys short. Well, now on that point, Giannis led everybody in offensive rebounds last night. He had
Starting point is 00:14:30 five offensive rebounds. And that has been the story. The Suns' inability to secure a defensive rebound when they need it and the Suns' turnovers are the thing. And those, that's just, you know, those are effort kinds of plays. Now, I'm not suggesting that the Suns haven turnovers are the thing. And that's just, you know, those are effort kinds of plays.
Starting point is 00:14:46 Now, I'm not suggesting that the Suns haven't been expending max effort, but, you know, those are the, that's the nitty gritty stuff that will determine the championship, I think. Well, and that's size and length and athleticism, which the Bucs have. They threw that lineup out last night with,
Starting point is 00:15:02 it was like Lopez, Giannis, Tucker, Middleton, and I think Conadon. They didn't even have a point guard. Wait, back to the Giannis point. We were kind of bummed out about this finals, like deep down, because it didn't have the, it just felt like an asterisk here. I hate the word asterisk,
Starting point is 00:15:21 but it felt like a giant footnote where just all these great players weren't in it. We had of the best 11 players in the league, 10 of them weren't in the finals, right? And then you think the way this worked out was pretty awesome. We had the Nets didn't get to rig their roster and try to win a title that way. Just the karma and bad luck just kind of got them. Same thing for the Lakers who rigged their title because they were able to get Davis to the Lakers and get everyone else to back off. That backfired this year.
Starting point is 00:15:53 Lakers fans love you. Well, I'm just, the Bucs were kind of the homegrown old school title, which is like, you know, there's multiple ways to win a title, but I always enjoy the ingenuity, loyalty. No lottery picks, right? Right. No lottery picks. I think their highest pick.
Starting point is 00:16:11 So that whole part's fun. The whole thing that Milwaukee hasn't won in 50 years. I mean, you're getting that either way with Milwaukee or Phoenix. CP3 now, if Milwaukee ends up winning game six, which I feel like they're going to win game six. I just think they're better. But, you know, we've seen series where the team was better and blew the game six,
Starting point is 00:16:30 San Antonio against Miami in 2013. CP3 now losing this finals becomes a historic rings culture guy. He might even be culture. Well, the whole thing when, when everybody talks about rings, do they matter? And they have to list all the players and it's like Barkley Malone,
Starting point is 00:16:49 Elgin Baylor, and they go through them. So the, the best 10 guys who've never won a title Barkley Malone, Elgin, Chris Paul, Nash, Harden,
Starting point is 00:16:57 Gervin, Ewing, Iverson, Russ, in some order, you can order those guys any way you want. Um, CP3,
Starting point is 00:17:05 this is the closest, I think, in the finals that any of those guys got except for Ewing. Ewing had up 3-2. Houston, game six, game seven,
Starting point is 00:17:16 but they just, they kind of needed one stop down the stretch of game six. They need to make one shot. They couldn't do it. And then they lose in game seven. My thing was like, I thought the right team won because I thought H. And then they lose in game seven. And my thing was like,
Starting point is 00:17:25 I thought the right team won because I thought Hakeem was slightly better than Ewing. And I also thought like, if your entire season's coming down to a John Starks three with Hakeem in his face, maybe you shouldn't win the title.
Starting point is 00:17:36 But that was the closest out of those 10 guys. Now, Elgin kind of won a ring because he was on that 72 Lakers team, but he retired during the season, but it's like barely counts. Out of all those guys, Ewing came the closest, but Chris, up
Starting point is 00:17:54 to nothing in the finals, not getting it is devastating. The one thing I hope we get after this NBA season is over is, um, I know what you're going to say the revelation front from him or,
Starting point is 00:18:12 or through some, you know, journalism investigative wise as to his injury, what, what happened to him? Because unless he bought, you know, is able to,
Starting point is 00:18:22 uh, get himself to Germany between now and Tuesday for an injection of the super steroids. I'm pretty sure those are illegal. Well, that's why Kobe went to Germany. All I know is Kobe went to Germany. He liked the food there. He got a treatment.
Starting point is 00:18:39 I mean, maybe Chris would like it as well. He got some washed blood injected back in his knee. I think it was legal. Do you think Chris needs it? He needs it in four parts of his body. It does look like it because this is the conversation that we're having as we're watching the games and we're all super attuned and you and
Starting point is 00:18:57 Russillo talked about it after game four. Yeah, that was like injured or choke. When he's not playing well, he's injured after game four. Yeah, that was like injured or choke. And it's like, when he's not playing well, he's injured. And when he is playing well, he's fine. So that means then he choked in game four.
Starting point is 00:19:11 Like we keep, we're going back and forth. I think we know the answer though. I don't, there isn't a difference. He's not choking. He's not, he didn't play. He didn't get minutes in game four. He is hurt. There's no argument about it.
Starting point is 00:19:24 See, hurt or is he old? Both. I would say he's more old than hurt because everybody's hurt. Giannis is fucking hurt. Giannis can't even do the Euro steps anymore. Giannis is 10 years younger than him. I know, but that's the thing. If you're trying to win the title with a 37-year-old guy
Starting point is 00:19:39 and you got to go four rounds in a whole condensed season, this is the shit that happens. That's right. All true. I have some stats for you. Chris Paul from round two through the first two finals games. He was 25 and nine, four rebounds. He shot 52, 50, 95. Only 2.1 turnovers, 4.6 free throw attempts. Remember that?
Starting point is 00:20:04 4.6 free throw attempts. Remember that, 4.6 free throw attempts. His last three, 17, 9, and 2, 52, 44, 67. Still not bad for the splits. 3.3 turnovers, 1.0 free throw attempts. And the body language doctor has not liked the body language from him. Well, it's not even the language. It's the body. The body language doctor doesn't like the body language from him. Well, it's not even the language. It's the body.
Starting point is 00:20:25 The body language. The body. Because the body, he can't penetrate and kick. You shared with us the shot chart from games three and four. Milwaukee has taken away the corner three from the Suns, but the Suns have been complicit in this attribute because CP3 cannot penetrate and kick. He just can't physically do it. We're wondering whether he can dribble with his left hand.
Starting point is 00:20:55 Yeah, sometimes he can, sometimes he can't. They're also, they're making Booker, they're kind of good with Booker getting 40 points. It's apparent. Now, I mean, it puts, it's a risky strategy. Yeah, but it's a little reminiscent. I think the first guy I remember doing this was Pop in 05 against Nash
Starting point is 00:21:13 when he was just like, we're getting rid of everybody else. Nash, knock yourself out. Get your 35 to 40. Nash kind of didn't know what to do. He had one-on-one. It was the right matchup every time. Same thing with Booker. They've closed-on-one. It was the right matchup every time. Same thing with Booker.
Starting point is 00:21:25 They're just, they've closed out on the corners. It happened again. We talked about it on this pod after game four with Jackie and Sierra. And then same thing, game five. The Suns shot really well. That was one of the weird things about this game. They shot 55%.
Starting point is 00:21:39 They made two out of every three threes, 68%. They shot 90% for the free throw and they're playing home and they lost. Your boy, Zach Cram, we have a nice Cram fact in here. Teams shooting 60% on at least 20 three-point attempts were 12-0, winning by an average margin of 24 points. And the Suns last night shot 62% on 21 three-point attempts and lost the game. I mean, some record-breaking stuff is going on here.
Starting point is 00:22:09 It's a tough one. Well, going back to the Giannis and the outcome, and then we'll take a break. But KD makes that three. If his foot's a foot back. It's a damn big toe away. So we have a ton of what-s that come out of these playoffs. Yes. We have Chris Paul now as this just all time,
Starting point is 00:22:35 like I feel bad for that guy. What a worrier. I'm actually not going to hold the fact that he's never won a finals against him. But by the way, he never won a finals against him. But by the way, he never won a finals. You have the old school, homegrown guy leading his team, not thinking about leaving. You have that whole thing. And on top of it,
Starting point is 00:22:56 KD stepping on the line put some chest hair on Giannis. It sure did. It turned out to be the greatest thing that ever happened to Giannis. Because if KD hits that three and the Nets go to the next round, they probably win
Starting point is 00:23:08 and maybe the Suns beat the Nets. Kyrie might be back at that point. Maybe Harden's okay. Maybe the Nets win easily. But we never have these last two rounds for Giannis. And then we head to the next season around Giannis.
Starting point is 00:23:21 What's up with him? This guy, what is he? And, you know, Coach Bud gets fired. So immediately, Milwaukee in a type of turmoil just because it all comes down to KD's big toe. It's crazy. We're going to take a quick break.
Starting point is 00:23:38 I have some more Giannis stuff for you. I'm going to blow your mind with some Giannis stuff. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember.
Starting point is 00:23:56 You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. can you be sure you're making the right decision when choosing a university? The smart approach
Starting point is 00:24:25 is to look at the facts, like the fact that York U graduates have a 90% employer satisfaction rate. That's because across its three GTA campuses, York U's programs are strategically designed to prepare you for a meaningful career and long-term success. Join us in creating positive change at yorku.ca slash write the future. Big picture. And the reason we keep talking about Giannis on this podcast is because this is some, you know, I had my book, The Pantheon. There's 16 guys in it. Added Curry recently.
Starting point is 00:24:56 It's not a long list. The stuff Giannis is doing done in this playoffs, in these finals, the game-to-game stuff, the consistency, the greatness, the stats, all of it. Coming back from the knee! With the knee injury on top of it, but he's averaging 32, 13, and 6 in the finals. 61% shooting. For the playoffs, he's 29, 13, and 5.
Starting point is 00:25:21 All right, let's talk about the company that's in. We have Shaq in 00 and 01 with 30 and 15, right in the neighborhood. We have Shaq in 02 with a 29 and 13, exactly the same. Now Shaq, those three straight finals, we're like, wow, that's one of the greatest three finals runs we've ever had. Giannis has matched it for a year.
Starting point is 00:25:40 Kareem in 74 loses the finals, but put up a 32 and 16. Kareem in 1980, which was his greatest series, in my opinion, 32 and 12. Hakeem, 94, 29, 11. Hakeem, 95, 33, and 10. And then Moses in 83, 26, and 16. So those are all winning performances with big stats. And my point is this. I had in my book and still on my list,
Starting point is 00:26:09 I have Shaq, I have Kareem. Now he's third or maybe fourth. I have Moses and Shaq and Hakeem all in the top 15. And Giannis is in the neighborhood. In the neighborhood. He just drove his car into one of the parking spaces right next to those fucking guys for an entire playoffs. And he's about to win the neighborhood. In the neighborhood. He just drove his car into one of the parking spaces right next to those fucking guys for an entire playoffs. And he's about to win the title.
Starting point is 00:26:29 And I just didn't expect this. Did you? Well, it was plausible at the outset of the playoffs. Right? Fair. Because, and I'm not, again, I ought not to confess this. Nine to one for Milwaukee to win the title before the playoffs began. I got on that because it was like, look, there's definitely a path here.
Starting point is 00:26:50 I mean, the Nets were the prohibitive favorites, but the Nets had those injury concerns. That was even before Harden, you know, Chris goad his way out of the playoffs. And, you know, we didn't know what we were going to get with Philly and Philly was underwhelming in that Atlanta. Or we did. Or we did know again.
Starting point is 00:27:12 Right. But we didn't get a three field goals in seven fourth quarters from Ben Simmons. We kind of knew that deep down. But this was the thing that that made the Bucks compelling. Like, could Giannis and there was also legit coach bud questions and i'm not sure that every coach bud question that's been answered satisfactorily but the combination of yannis and coach bud together on this journey just enough doubt to to make it you know uh a giant i don't know but also plausible because y Giannis can elevate and he did
Starting point is 00:27:45 elevate. And we knew that Middleton and Holiday were wild cards and they both matured. They're both on the stage. Wait, hold that Middleton point because we didn't know Middleton could be like a legit second guy on the finals team. We did not know that.
Starting point is 00:28:01 I didn't know that. They're the supporting cast. They're the crucial, uh, uh, you know, role players in this thing. Um, and it's been the only one that I feel like he's exactly who I thought he was
Starting point is 00:28:13 throughout this playoffs. He's going to go four for 20 every once in a while. He's going to have games where it looks like he needs LASIK surgery. He's going to have games where he's completely dominant defensively. And he's a perimeter guy and he's going to have great two way games like last night. That's he's all over the map, but he's going to have games where he's completely dominant defensively. As a perimeter guy. And he's going to have great two-way games like last night. He's all over the map, but he's good. Until last night, he was under 35% shooting in these finals.
Starting point is 00:28:34 And he was volume shooting. I mean, it wasn't like these were three for 11 performances. I mean, he's getting it up. But one of the things that jumped out from the stories of last night, and you mentioned this on the defensive side, and this is the thing, if you're thinking about the Bucs and their prospects, Holiday is a lockdown defender. When Holiday has been on Booker or CP3,
Starting point is 00:29:01 the expected points per possession for the Suns is like 22 points per 100 possessions. When he's not on one of those two guys, both of those guys, it jumps up to almost 40 points per 100. The proof is in the pudding. We see
Starting point is 00:29:19 it with our own eyes with Holiday, but the idea of the Bucs in these playoffs came down to these very, very factors, right? Like Giannis next level, Boone Holter not fucking it up, and then Holiday and Middleton, can they do it? And it's cool.
Starting point is 00:29:35 We're here. Final stats. Some of these are great. I actually spent an hour going through all this stuff today. Shaq in 2000 in the finals, 38-17. Just every game. Wow. 01, 33-16 and 5. Shaq.
Starting point is 00:29:52 02, slumped a little. 36-12. The daddy. Three straight years. That's why, listen, that's why I'll always defend Shaq. He fucking kicked everyone's ass for three straight years. Kareem in 1980, 33. Yeah. Hakeem, Kareem in 1980,
Starting point is 00:30:07 33 and 14. Moses in 83, 26 and 18. Hakeem in 95, 33 and 12. LeBron had two good ones. He's a non-center, but in 2016,
Starting point is 00:30:19 30, 11, and 9. In 2020, 30, 12 and 9. So back to Giannis. 32, 13, and 6. Again, there Giannis. 32, 13 and 6. Again, there was a parking space in this garage that we didn't know Giannis was allowed on this level of the garage.
Starting point is 00:30:32 And he's kind of backing the car into the garage. What's he driving? It's a thing. What kind of car is he driving? What do you like, Giannis? It's some awesome Greek Range Rover. It's got no roof. It's got all kinds of Range Rover it's got it's got no roof it's got all kinds of shit
Starting point is 00:30:47 it's like a 200 it's something Italian I like something Italian it's like the Himalaya have you seen the Himalaya car I think it's like a Himalaya no I don't know that I don't know that one
Starting point is 00:30:54 it's like a the 42 club as you know the points, rebounds, assists if you're 42 and over and you've played at least 12 games you're special it's not a long list
Starting point is 00:31:03 we've talked about it many times in this pod. Well, there's a 47 club. Oh Jesus. For guys post merger. It's LeBron, MJ,
Starting point is 00:31:13 Hakeem, Shaq, Kareem, and Giannis. Those are our seven guys. LeBron's done it four times, by the way, Shaq's done it twice.
Starting point is 00:31:19 The other guys have done it once, but again, LeBron, MJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Kareem, Giannis. Going back to the garage.
Starting point is 00:31:34 Now, here's the other thing going on here. Defensively, he's better than Shaq was. Hakeem was incredible. I don't think he was better defensively than Hakeem was. I think he's in the vicinity of it, though. I think he was a better defensive and a more impactful defensive player than Kareem at any point of the second half of his career. And then Moses was really an offense rebounder. Defense wasn't 100% his thing. You throw in the defense stuff that he's done and his ability to play
Starting point is 00:32:01 against all these different types of guys, right? He's been matched up on Paul and Booker on the perimeter. He's had to guard aid and he's been all over the map. And on the key play yesterday, which if I'm a Suns fan, I'm replaying that. That's their version of Larry Bird missing the shot in 87 by an inch. Booker,
Starting point is 00:32:21 really good drive on the defining play of the game. They're down one. Drives hard left. Goes in the lane on Tucker. Tucker, who I think has sucked in this series, actually plays really good defense. Stays in front of him. Doesn't foul him.
Starting point is 00:32:36 Giannis comes over. Makes him guess. Booker's stuck. And he's about to turn and throw it to Chris for this career-defining three. That's right. But Holiday sniffs it out, and he's already grabbing for the ball. Grabs it. Turns.
Starting point is 00:32:53 I'm watching this live, and I see Giannis. He's doing that run down the court thing. And I'm like, oh, my God. He's going to go for the alley-oop. Are you fucking kidding me? And I didn't think Holiday was going to throw it to him. And he throws it to him. Paul shoves him, which, by the way, was a flagrant at every point of the season, except for last night for some reason.
Starting point is 00:33:08 But that's, they've called that as a flagrant all year. And Giannis finishes it game time. But that's, I think that is one of the great plays of the last 20 years. Like just for significance, everything that happened, the three different guys on the Bucs all making like really great plays.
Starting point is 00:33:25 And then like an athletic play that I feel like how many guys make that play? Giannis Robinson. I mean, the the the I honestly am equally impressed by the balls on holiday to throw it up there. Like credible balls. That's what I make. It was an all time two way play. I mean, you mentioned if he fucked up the alley.
Starting point is 00:33:48 That's how badly that could go wrong. A million things can go wrong on that play. Absolutely right. I mean, it has to be perfect. And, and it was, it was bang,
Starting point is 00:33:58 bang split second, like the sensible thing. And nobody would have been mad. Would have been for him to just dribble for a little while. Right. Run some clock. He's a good free throw shooter. Exactly right. Of course. But nope, we're going to put the hammer down.
Starting point is 00:34:11 We've got a one of one in Giannis. If I throw it anywhere near the rim, he's going to get it and he's going to finish it and by golly, I mean, it was an all caps wowee. Wowee zowie. Well, there's another thing going on here. If the Bucks blow that game,
Starting point is 00:34:29 it caused me to make my list of what were the worst finals losses of this century. Cause it would have been on it. The worst finals loss of the century and maybe all time was, was the Ray Allen shot. Yeah. That's the worst basketball loss that's ever happened in my opinion. I don't think there's ever been
Starting point is 00:34:45 A more devastating loss But I had some other good ones I just went 21st century The Horry game Game 5, 2005 Detroit, San Antonio Which is known as the Horry game But the real diehard hoop fans
Starting point is 00:35:00 Remember it as the I can't fucking believe Rasheed Wallace left Horry open When he inbounded the ball And then went right to the And then had a wide open three hard hoop fans remember it as the, I can't fucking believe Rasheed Wallace left Torrey open when he inbounded the ball and then went right to the, and then right. And I had a wide open three, like what the fuck are you doing?
Starting point is 00:35:10 Ball don't lie. She said it. Ball don't lie. She. Ball don't lie. And stay with Robert Horry. That should have been his two things. So that was a tough one.
Starting point is 00:35:19 Lakers 08 game four against Celts up 25. We come back, make a bunch of threes. To me, that's the day small ball was basically created because we come back with this small ball lineup with KG and we're shooting threes. That was the lineup he should have played all year.
Starting point is 00:35:35 Every time we play that lineup, we score. They flipped that stat. They showed that a little bit, that game as a marker for the comeback that the Bucs had by coming back from 16, you know, where they were flashing
Starting point is 00:35:48 big comebacks in finals and that was one of them. Well, and that's when threes are such a big part of these quick comebacks now. You make four threes in two minutes.
Starting point is 00:35:57 Bang. We did a book of basketball podcast on this game, Orlando 2009, game four. A Stan Van Gundy catastrophe. Coaching catastrophe.
Starting point is 00:36:09 With a little Jameer Nelson, a little Dwight Howard sprinkled in. But that ends up getting the Lakers. That was a bad one. Dallas 2006, game three. Series seems over. Huge comeback. Wade starts getting every call.
Starting point is 00:36:21 Game five was worse because that was the Bennett Salvatore. Yes. I'll never get over how bad that call was. I don't even like Dallas. I don't even think I bet on that series. That was one of the most horrifying moments that led to Cuban screaming at Stern,
Starting point is 00:36:37 you fixed the game, all that stuff. Now we go to 2016 Golden State Cleveland game seven. Golden State's last six minutes are, I think that's the second worst loss of the last 20. Wow. Because you just need to hit one three and you win the game. Just hit one shot and you win the title at home. Just one. The Cavs don't even score the last five minutes other than the Kyrie three. It's stunning for Golden State
Starting point is 00:37:07 to be in that drought. That's the thing that's so stark about it. They're home and the fans are nervous and it's just a rock fight and Festus Azile is in there for some reason and LeBron hits two threes over him. Then nobody scores for four minutes. Brutal.
Starting point is 00:37:25 Boston 2010 game seven hits two threes over him, then nobody scores for four minutes. Brutal. Boston 2010 game seven. Yeah. Where they blew the 18-point lead. They just ran out. They wouldn't have enough guys. Yeah. And the Lakers were really good, but we were like a guy short because Perkins was out. And then the last one I have is
Starting point is 00:37:39 Cleveland 2018, aka the J.R. Smith game. It was a game one, so not as devastating, but LeBron knew it. He knew that was it for the series. They weren't going to beat them five times. So I have those nine. And I think if the Bucks blew that game,
Starting point is 00:37:57 I think it's the third worst out of all those. If you're up 10 and you're missing free throws and you leave Paul wide open on that three at the top of the perimeter for no reason at all. Booker hits that crazy going to his right three. And then you just can't, you just seem nervous and you fall apart and you lose that fucking awful. Yeah. They were up 10 in the fourth quarter. I think they were up 14 at one point in the fourth quarter, but they were up eight with two minutes and 23 seconds left. Right.
Starting point is 00:38:25 They're at 121, 12 with two and a half. They were up. They're up 10 with like 320 left. And we had two misses from Middleton and a holiday miss. And then they put the freak on the line. And this is again, like how, what a fine line we're in here extolling the virtues of the freak. And yet that game was him standing on the free.
Starting point is 00:38:46 And by the way, the free throw that he missed after the alley, you brilliant miss, which, which, you know, should have been, this is why the sons are going to lose this series.
Starting point is 00:38:57 They can't, they couldn't get a defensive rebound when they needed it. It's just that, that, that close between these two teams. I think the biggest mistake they made In game 5 Was not playing Cam Johnson over Crowder
Starting point is 00:39:10 I think they I think they're a little too in love with the safety Of Crowder the same way the Bucks are a little Too in love with the safety of PJ Tucker Sure But I think for game 6 Cam Johnson's the guy I've asked for They need more from him in that game.
Starting point is 00:39:26 Because one of the things with him is he rebounds. And he'll come in. I feel like he would have gotten that free throw rebound. I don't even think he was on the court. Quickly, Booker. So that last possession, which I think is one of the all-time great finals plays. It's like you could Zabruder from that play. Great Tucker D, great Giannis Hope, great Holiday Strip, right? Three
Starting point is 00:39:53 greats in a row. Great Giannis Sprint, and then a double great Ali Oop. And on the flip side of that, Booker makes that shot, and I think they win. I don't think the Bucks, I think they just would have double teamed Middleton and gotten a bad shot. And it's like this incredible fork in the road moment for Booker because he was right at the precipice of, wow, this guy might not just be like a multi-time all-star. Like we have to recalibrate what we thought the stuff he was doing as a two guard is, you know, less than 10 guys ever, but he gets stripped and now it is where it is. Let me ask you this. Yeah. Do you think Monte Williams made a mistake by not taking the timeout? I don't. Yeah. I, to me, that's a trust your team. I watched it a bunch of times today because I was, I was trying to figure out what he should have done. And I actually think he did the right thing. I think the Bucs
Starting point is 00:40:45 just played it perfect. They only had one timeout left and it was at the 32nd mark and you have to have that timeout, you know, at the end to advance the ball.
Starting point is 00:40:54 Yeah, for sure. The most interesting thing about that play is Chris kind of runs away from it. Yeah. I'm not saying he was afraid of it. I'm just saying
Starting point is 00:41:03 Booker had the ball in the right corner on the Bucs side. They get the rebound. Starts not saying he was afraid of it. I'm just saying Booker had the ball in the right corner on the buck side. They get the rebound. Start shoving up. No timeout. Chris goes all the way
Starting point is 00:41:11 the other side like a 2018 rocket style. I think he was running to a spot though. I saw it. I know what you're talking about. They crisscrossed.
Starting point is 00:41:21 Right. I want Chris Ball to have the ball with 20 seconds. So this is the thing. This is what I mean. If if he's healthy maybe he's not healthy maybe he knew right and and who but the play before remember with like 50 seconds left on the right side he he got the switch on conantin and then he dusted conantin on the baseline and let's i just want chris paul to side in the game he's chris paul he and let's give credit. He really did almost decide the game.
Starting point is 00:41:47 I know. He engineered that comeback. It was his smart plays and his finishing and his execution that brought them all the way back to that precipice of one point away. I mean, Booker also, who was incandescent, but really CP3 driving that train, driving the comeback train. We didn't even get the CP jog toward Booker and Booker like look him off or the semi jog. And then the comeback, he was just like, Book's got this. I thought that was really fascinating. Well, you know, part of the thing, and I don't remember where I saw it, might have been ESPN, on drives to the lane like that by Book by Booker, the sons were seven of,
Starting point is 00:42:25 of 10 with no turnovers. So when Booker was penetrating in that way, that was the only turnover on that kind of a penetration play. Uh, and it, and it makes perfect sense that, that CP three would be confident that Booker would do it. And that Booker himself was confident that he could do it.
Starting point is 00:42:41 I have a question for you, but we're going to take it to a break and I want you to think about it. Is Devin Booker the best two guard in the league right now? You mull that over. We're going to take a break. All right. So you can go into next season and you could have any two guard for next season.
Starting point is 00:43:01 Are you taking James Harden? Are you taking Booker? Are you taking somebody else? Wow. Just for one season? The reason I'm bringing this up is because this would have been a ridiculous conversation
Starting point is 00:43:16 six weeks ago. Yeah. You would have been like, what the fuck are you talking about? That's right. Because the thing with Booker that's been so impressive, and I know the buckshot
Starting point is 00:43:25 was today, but he's really playing hard on both ends. I like his defense. He's really physical. He cheats. He gets eight fouls a game. They call four of them.
Starting point is 00:43:33 But remember that play when it went out on Middleton, but then they decided they reviewed it. But and you watch the replay. He's hugging Middleton. He's a hugger. He's learned all these tricks from Chris Paul. He's hugging everybody. In game four as well. He's hugging middle. He's a hugger. He's learned all these tricks from Chris Paul.
Starting point is 00:43:46 All those hugs in game four as well. He's hugging everybody. He just has the love. So Kamlo had like the durability of the fact that he's a younger guy and then Harden, I don't know what the fuck shape he's going to be in, but I would take Harden just because
Starting point is 00:44:01 the ceiling's higher, but it's interesting that it's a conversation. So that's right. It's fun to have the, the, the conversation I'm still, um, going with Harden, but you know,
Starting point is 00:44:12 the, the seeing it from Booker on this stage has been a revelation and it's great to have him, um, ascend into super duper stardom, right? He was a superstar, but now he's a super duper star. And a little alpha A too, right?
Starting point is 00:44:28 Yeah, we have to have it. He has to be the alpha because CP3 is hurt. And I'm going to stand by that. CP3 is hurt. Where do you have Booker against vintage Andrew Toney? I brought this up with Jackie and Sarah on Thursday. Because you also revered Andrew Toney way back when. Of course, of course. But I mean,
Starting point is 00:44:45 it's a different era. My recency bias, all I can see is Booker with all his flexibility, all of his creativity. Wait till we really see Booker as a genuine playmaker. This is the thing that he's bumping up against.
Starting point is 00:45:03 He's almost there in terms of involving the guys he could be the one kicking out to cam johnson in in the corner or he did it in game two bridges yeah right he did in game two they took but they took away the lanes and they just want booker to be a scoring guard which is which is 42 nights in a row on the finals is like nothing to sneeze at fyi and it and it's also never happened before that a player scored 40 consecutive games and lost both games. The thing with him. So in the playoffs, he's 28, 6 and 5.
Starting point is 00:45:37 He's only 34% from 3. In the finals, he's 34 and 4. He's 32% from 3. It is weird. It seems like he's such a better three-point shooter than the stats say. He's not.
Starting point is 00:45:52 The stats tell the truth. The stats tell the truth. But if you're talking about what's this guy going to look like three years from now, that'll be the thing. Yeah, it's right. Same thing with Luca.
Starting point is 00:46:02 And assists. Like, I'd like to see him get a half dozen assists and I'd like to see him get a half dozen assists, and I'd like to see him get to the line 11 times a game. Yeah. Well, he was awesome, but unfortunately, he's going to be a tough part of history with that play
Starting point is 00:46:17 if the Bucs win, because the two plays that everyone's going to show from this series for the rest of eternity are the honest block. Yes. And the strip alley-oop, which kind of needs a play, right? everyone's going to show from this series for the rest of eternity are the honest block. Yes. And the, and the strip alley hoop,
Starting point is 00:46:28 which kind of needs a play, right? Well, I mean, and, and it really does. You want to name? I don't like you. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:36 I, I, I'm not smart enough. Strip and hoop. That sounds like a place you would, you would eat at. I mean, I'm going to strip and hoops.
Starting point is 00:46:44 There's some chicken wings for half. There's a lot of things that could be happening at strip and hoop that you would eat at. I mean, we're... I'm going to Strip and Hoops. There's some chicken wings for half price. There's a lot of things that could be happening at Strip and Hoop that I would be into. I assure you. Every piece of Strip and Hoops, you're signing up. Yes, that's right. All the activities that might be going on in the Strip and Hoop, my hands are raised. I think Jalen's at Strip and Hoops right now. Let's go.
Starting point is 00:47:02 Jalen, let's go to Strip and Hoops. I wish I was there with them. But how about the fact that for this play, for these finals, the iconic plays for the Bucs are really defensive plays. And that really is the identity of the team and the reason why
Starting point is 00:47:14 they have the narrowest of advantages over the Suns. So Phoenix was a player short. And now they're two players short. They never got the buyout guy during the season. Yeah. It's weird. Blake would have been nice on this team.
Starting point is 00:47:31 I agree. That would have been a good Suns and you got Suns doctors, all that. And then they whiffed on the 2020 draft, which that poor Jalen Smith can't even play. They actually need him. Kaminsky, he's not playing either. They had to play 45 minutes
Starting point is 00:47:46 last night. That's ridiculous. It was supposed to be Sarge. Can you believe that? It was supposed to be Sarge? And that Sarge not being there hurts them. Well, they also could have traded Sarge, right? They could have done a Sarge and Green for... Jalen Smith, not Green. So they had
Starting point is 00:48:01 ways to maybe get better, and they didn't. And they're feeling it now. Yeah, they're still pretty good. And they got all the way. They're still really good. But the finals comes down to, you know, the fact that Connaughton, who was incredible the last two games for what he is, you know, like I thought he was completely fearless.
Starting point is 00:48:21 He had a couple threes yesterday when it was like, the game was about to become a blowout in the first quarter, quarter and a half. And he had a couple big threes. He did. Middleton hit one. Yep. And then the other one was the two shots Middleton hit in the last couple minutes of the game. That one with Crowder, where Crowder, once again like Crowder's in his landing spot
Starting point is 00:48:45 we've seen them call that all year Middleton lands on him they don't call it because it's last three minutes so they can't decide and look I don't want more fouls
Starting point is 00:48:53 and more reviews but I'm just saying like we we were playing it one way all year but he hit that one then he hit a crazy it felt like their
Starting point is 00:49:01 offensive spot the 120 to 112 that one and a shot clock too yeah they were just like it just felt like they were discombobulated 120 to 112, that one. And a shot clock, too. Yeah. They were just like, it just felt like they were discombobulated,
Starting point is 00:49:08 and then he had another one. So he was, he was great. But yeah, I think Phoenix, they're just a guy short. And that, I mean, if CP3 wasn't hurt, then they could gloss over it. They could cover over it.
Starting point is 00:49:21 But he's hurt. He's a diminished CP3. Not having a backup big guy. I think Coach Bud's actually there. I think he was awful in game one. Game two, the Sun set a shitload of threes. You can't do anything about that. I think he's been really good the last couple games. I like when he stacks big.
Starting point is 00:49:35 I thought his mistake yesterday was not playing Portis down the stretch because it seems like every time they go smaller, the Tucker plus minus, all that stuff. You think Teague, there was a bad idea to put Teague in there? You didn't like that one? I mean, look. That was the comeback.
Starting point is 00:49:51 I mean, he ushered in the comeback. My team sucked, and Teague was our fifth best point guard this year. So I don't know how he ended up in the finals. Let's talk Middleton for a second. So there's like these old school sidekick guys, right? Like Sam Jones was like the best one. Neither of us were alive for the Sam Jones era, but it was always like the Celtics were awesome. And then Sam Jones would do some shit. And if you're down one with 10 seconds left, Sam Jones was the guy they went to. He'd make shots. And he was like, I had him, I think
Starting point is 00:50:20 when I wrote my book, I had him like in the low thirties. Cause it was like this guy over and over again, just came through on every stage could score even a little more than people thought. So there's been guys over the years. I think Tony was like that. We mentioned James Worthy. McHale became that for Bird. And then as we head into this century, it doesn't happen a lot in the finals, but 2005 member menu had that huge series against the, uh, Pistons when Duncan was little, he was kind of fading at the end of that season. Oh, wait, Ray Allen, 2010 Gasol, 2011,
Starting point is 00:50:53 the best version of this Jason Terry. Yeah. It wasn't even, it was like barely an all-star, but just was, had such huge balls in that series. 2016 Kyrie, probably the most overqualified guy for this, because Kyrie
Starting point is 00:51:06 was really good, but he was so great in those last three games. And then Kyle Lowry 2019. And the question with Middleton was always like, could he be could he at least be that? Could he be on that list with those guys? And he answered it. He is. Well, and
Starting point is 00:51:21 it was still to me an open question at 7.45 p.m. Eastern last night because we hadn't seen he and Holiday on the road shoot with confidence. And something definitely changed. And I also will give credit to Coach Bud for this. In games three and four, the confidence that those guys develop and, and, you know,
Starting point is 00:51:47 both of them showed up for the road game. And this was like, you know, it's the first road win in the, in these finals. And it's all because of those two guys, a hundred percent, because those two guys were up to it.
Starting point is 00:52:02 44 minutes for Middleton, 42 minutes for Holiday. Both of them shot over 50%. And, you know, look at the numbers. 29 for Middleton, 27 for Holiday. Middleton with seven rebounds, five assists, like complete games. 13 assists for Holiday. Those guys are the difference.
Starting point is 00:52:21 And good defense, too. Great defense. Did you like Middleton before these playoffs? No. No. I didn't really either. He left me lukewarm. Yeah, I thought he was fine.
Starting point is 00:52:30 He was kind of Tobias Heresy. But he has an identity now. He does. And it's helpful. And again, I'll give Coach Bud credit for this. He's their closer. He's the one that touches it
Starting point is 00:52:40 because Giannis needs to be a decoy between the combination of, you know, what the defense is doing in terms of the wall plus the free throw shooting. But, but Giannis did the cool. The good thing with Giannis was he can, he's closing now in these last four minutes,
Starting point is 00:52:55 he's at least trying to figure out ways to, you know, put some points up, which I just felt like before it felt like they were crippled. Yeah. At the end of these games, it's really impressive. Did you see this list of teams that went down 2-0
Starting point is 00:53:10 and then won the title? No. How many people do you think are on it? How many teams? Less than eight. Four. Okay, that's less than eight. 69 Celtics, 77 Blazers, 2006 Heat, and the 2016 Cavs.
Starting point is 00:53:31 And that one, I still feel like if Draymond doesn't punch LeBron in the balls, that series is over in five. I will believe that the rest of my life. How about this stat? Game six home up 3-2 since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976. How many times do you think that's happened? What do you mean? Has it happened? How many times have we had this specific situation?
Starting point is 00:54:01 A team is home for game six with a chance to close and win the title? I think a decent number of times. You know, 15 times? 11. In this specific situation, a team is home for game six with a chance to close and win the title. I think a decent number of times. You know, 15 times? 11. Okay. What do you think the record of those teams are in the game six? Chance to clinch at home game six up 3-2.
Starting point is 00:54:17 10-1. You nailed it. Hey, all right. Our only outlier was 0-5. Yeah. San Antonio afterlier was 05. Yeah. San Antonio after the Horry game. They go back and they just did a stink bomb. But Duncan, he was Olympics.
Starting point is 00:54:34 He played like a shitload of games. Talk about like load management. Like that dude, he was running on fumes. And they just sucked in game six and they lost. But the other times, oh, it's Celtics. Oh,
Starting point is 00:54:47 three Spurs, 2000 Lakers, 97, 96 bulls, 92 bulls, 87 Lakers, 86 Celts, 82 Lakers,
Starting point is 00:54:58 77 Blazers. They all take care of business, which makes me think Milwaukee minus five or the Milwaukee money line tomorrow. They probably both. I have bucks and six, so I don't need to do anything, but it would be very unconventional for them to lose this. But then on the flip side,
Starting point is 00:55:13 even if Phoenix wins, they got to play two nights later in Phoenix. Yeah. With Chris is like running on the fumes of his fumes right now. Right. It does feel like. And you got seven guys. So if anything,
Starting point is 00:55:24 that weirdly might favor seven, there is the 74 Celtics had a chance to close at home. Famous double OT game. Kareem hits the sky hook on the corner over Hank Finkel. Uh, cause Cowan's fouled out. Poor Hank Finkel. My dad swears that I was at this game.
Starting point is 00:55:40 I was four years old. I have no recollection of it. Um, but, uh, but then the Celts went to Milwaukee for game seven and beat them. Okay. So we could see that.
Starting point is 00:55:51 But I really think Milwaukee's figured it out. I think they've been better all three games. I know you could say two of the games came down to one or two plays. And that's true. I think they have the best player in the series. The turnovers and the rebounding is what, to me, with Milwaukee having an advantage in both of those areas, that's the deciding factor.
Starting point is 00:56:14 We see, have you noticed, especially with the young'uns, because we're old, everything has to be the greatest play, game, sequence, block. The hyperbole is pretty high and after yesterday it was like one of the best finals games ever I just want to point out
Starting point is 00:56:30 we've had a lot of good finals games it's been a lot of good finals moments the league's been around for 75 years it just feels like a relief because there was some concern with these two teams and the way the whole playoffs went that it might be an underwhelming finals.
Starting point is 00:56:46 And it's done better. It's much better than underwhelming. Well, we're on a streak now of three straight awesome game fives because last year was the Jimmy Butler we're not ready to go home yet game against the Lakers. 2019 was one of the most dramatic, bizarre games in the history of the finals when Durant blows out his Achilles. Oh, man.
Starting point is 00:57:08 Second half, it's Clay and Curry, and they're just like, fuck this, we're not losing. And Toronto has a chance to win the title, and they don't. Yeah. But that was a really, really memorable game for 70,000 different reasons. 2018 game one was really good. That Jr. Smith
Starting point is 00:57:27 game, 2017 game three, go on YouTube young ones that time and watch that one where it's basically Kyrie and LeBron against Katie Curry and clay. And, uh, and Kevin love puts up a one for nine. It was like our three against your three. And Kevin loves like, cool. I'm not going to make shot. Um, 2016, four,
Starting point is 00:57:49 four and seven were good. Four was the one, the Warriors win. It seemed like they clinched the, the, the, uh, finals 2011 game two,
Starting point is 00:57:57 when Dirk comes back from 15 and takes LeBron and Wade and Wade does a little dance in front of the, uh, Dallas bench. And Dallas gets pissed. And Dallas comes back. Yeah. 2013 at game six and seven. Game six was the best game of the century.
Starting point is 00:58:14 And then 2010 game seven. So it's like... So just in the last 12 years, we've had some really good games. Yeah. That's good. It's good for you to call them out and people can look them up on YouTube.
Starting point is 00:58:24 There's some really good ones. They're all on YouTube. Yeah. Just for you to call them out and people can look them up on YouTube and enjoy it. They're all on YouTube. Yeah, just go do a little work. Not everything has to be the greatest. The NBA Finals tend to be pretty effing good. Yeah. Yeah, we've enjoyed it
Starting point is 00:58:34 over the years. We have. All right, here's my path. I'll ask you this. Can Phoenix win game six? sure, yes we've seen with this Phoenix team if they start hitting threes
Starting point is 00:58:52 the biggest question is how is the hyperbaric chamber that Chris Paul is sitting in right now what are they pumping into there and I'll stop making the jokes how's his body recovering? Right.
Starting point is 00:59:05 They've got they've got ice. They're doing everything possible. Electric stimulation, anything they can do. If he shows any semblance. And honestly, he was pretty good last night. Now we saw him. And you know what, though? He was he was good in the fourth quarter.
Starting point is 00:59:21 I know, but we can play a good quarter. I don't play a good game anymore. Exactly. Rosillo said he was disengaged. I don't know if he can play a good game anymore. Exactly. Rosillo said he was disengaged. I'm not so sure that he was disengaged. I think he was load managing within the game to be ready for the possibility. They were still within shouting distance in the fourth quarter,
Starting point is 00:59:36 and he willed them all the way to the precipice. They were only down by one at that moment. So absolutely positively, there's no doubt that Phoenix can win game six. Yes, is my answer. It's like when you go to strip and oops tonight. Load management. You're not going to go hard for four hours, but there's going to be a couple
Starting point is 00:59:57 great 45 minute stretches in there. I'm not breaking out the $20 bills right when I walk in the door. Here's my roadmap for Phoenix winning game six, everything you just said about Chris Paul, the combat, the Chris Paul semi comeback game. I don't even think we need to like a full comeback game,
Starting point is 01:00:13 semi comeback game, more cam Johnson, more. I think I, I agree with 30 minutes in this game, that dude. And I thought that was a terrible draft pick. I was wrong, but I think they need that guy's athleticism and his threes and like just a
Starting point is 01:00:27 little rational confidence on both ends kind of guy over what Crowder's given them. They need one more really good Booker game. He doesn't have score 40, but he still has to, you know, make the majority of his two points. They need Connaughton to suck.
Starting point is 01:00:42 I mean, honestly, they need him to stink. They need him to stink. They need him to cool off. He's made everybody forget about Dante DiVincenzo. I know. They need the same kind of misfree throw bullshit with the Bucs.
Starting point is 01:00:56 Yes. And they need Drew Holiday to have, who is it, Mr. Hyde? Who is the bad one, Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde? I think, I don't know. I think the doctor was the bad one. Whatever the bad one is, whether it was Jekyll or Hyde, I can't remember who was the bad one. They need Holiday to suck again offensively.
Starting point is 01:01:15 He's not going to suck defensively because he's great. But I think if you get all those, the danger is, and having been fortunate enough to have been at closeout games in my life, especially when you have a slightly better team and you have the best player in the series, the danger is that second quarter when the crowd's like going nuts and the players can
Starting point is 01:01:35 kind of start to smell it a little bit. And especially if you have the best player, there's an energy thing that happens and we could feel it. So the last one I went to for the Celts was the 08 game six against the Lakers and KG in the second quarter, the bench brought her back, made a couple of threes and KG was just everywhere. And that game hit a point where you could feel it slipping away. And Jackson was calling timeouts and same thing.
Starting point is 01:02:02 Like with that 86 one I went to against the Rockets. Like there, that was the third quarter where that happened, but there are these moments where the crowd and the other team, there's like this urgency because they know like, man, if we don't, we don't stave this off, like this is it. And, and you can kind of freeze from that. And that would be my fear for Phoenix, especially you're playing seven guys, you know, and like when campaign is out there, they're down eight and the bucks can just like, all of a sudden the bucks are up 17 and that'll be it. The Phoenix won't be able to come back from that. I don't know if that's, if I agree with, with, with that. Cause the, I think that energy dynamic you're describing also always happens to that, to the home team, home team jumping out.
Starting point is 01:02:45 I mean, I, I, I, I hate to, uh, put any kind of bad whammy on the bucks, but I feel like, you know, first the, the bucks first quarter, whatever it is, money line and whatever they're favored by for the first quarter. I'm betting both of those, right? Bucks in the first quarter, but then similar to what we saw last night with the Suns, that you jump out to a big lead. Crowds in a frenzy. Yes.
Starting point is 01:03:10 And then, the other team makes a couple shots and then all of a sudden you miss a couple. Then the energy shifts. That's exactly right. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:17 Well, we've seen the flip side of this where it's like, I'm going to the finals tonight and my team's going to win for the first time in 50 years. I've paid an incredible amount of money for these tickets and this is going to the finals tonight and my team's going to win for the first time in 50 years. I've paid an incredible amount of money for these tickets and this is going to be the greatest moment of my life.
Starting point is 01:03:30 And then you're down eight in the third quarter and it's just panic time. You're like, what happened? All those scenarios were at play here. Do you want to dip into some of your experiences in the first and second round with the Bullets over the last 40 years? Because those are the only two rounds you've experienced. That's not nice, but I will say I'm happy to have Wes
Starting point is 01:03:49 Unseld Jr. manning the helm here. It's a very low consequence situation. So let this guy have the opportunity, an iconic figure for the franchise. The ceiling is not very high. He's not going to fail. And he just needs to mind the store for a couple of years while the Almost Bullets reboot from the Davis-Burton disaster. How did you feel about LeBron picking last night, the weekend of when his movie came out, to finally go see his alleged close buddy, Chris Paul, play in person. Most predictable thing ever. What do you mean? How did I feel?
Starting point is 01:04:28 He went to a WNBA game last round over the Clipper Suns like game six. He was like five minutes away. Couldn't have cared less. Oh, my movie's coming out this weekend? All right. I think those are all my notes. Just that the only other one I had
Starting point is 01:04:42 was I made KOC look up on Second Spectrum all the Tucker numbers trying to figure out why the fuck he's playing so much. Booker's 14 for 24 against one-on-ones against Tucker in the finals. It's just because he's, you said it much earlier, he's just a trusted person out there,
Starting point is 01:04:58 right? Coach Bud feels like he can trust him. Whether it's true or not, he just feels like it. And knows how to box out. It's great box outs. And, you know, he is always hysterical when a foul is called against him. So, you know, he softens the refs. Incredible reactions. Yes.
Starting point is 01:05:16 Can't believe he's ever been called for a foul. I mean, that counts for something. Reminds me of my wife's reaction when Jalen ate three twice-baked potatoes on July 4th when she only made 13. Same kind of P.J. Tucker reaction. He should have been at the strip-a-noop. Well, maybe that's where he had it after. Yeah, that's all I have for these finals. I think we hit all my topics.
Starting point is 01:05:42 So we'll take a break. We'll talk a little golf and, some football features. All right. So the golf, the majors are in the books. Our guy, John Rom got one.
Starting point is 01:05:58 More cow put his stake in the ground for best young player in his twenties, potentially other than maybe John Robb. Um, we had no LT gray. Spieth did a lot of sniffing, sniffed around, felt like he was confidence was rebuilt in a lot of ways. And then yes,
Starting point is 01:06:19 Louie who stays in became part of ring sculpture. I think he's on that list of Chris Paul and Barkley and Malone, but just classic Louis. What other, what are the other, before we get into what happened today, what were the other big storylines from these four majors that you cared about?
Starting point is 01:06:34 Were those it, or is there another one? Well, we had an unbelievable run of seven majors in the last calendar year because of, you know, the, the,
Starting point is 01:06:43 the pandemic. So we had the, the PGA championship in August of 2020 and between August of 2020 and mid July, 2021, seven majors competed with like incredible. The, the, the winners are Colin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil effing Mickelson, John Rahm, and Colin Morikawa again. So think about that circle and that cycle. Morikawa at the beginning with no fans, and then on the backside of this at the Open Championship,
Starting point is 01:07:18 that was the only major last year that deferred. They said, we're not going to compete it because they couldn't get themselves confident that they could host a tournament over there. They had an insurance policy. They took advantage of that. It's been an unbelievable...
Starting point is 01:07:36 I like how you waited to get to that point, which was really the point they postponed it. They actually made money postponing it. They couldn't. The problem, although I would have enjoyed it with the Open Championship is the weather. You have like a six-week window weather-wise, you know, over there. But anything that you start getting into September and it might snow.
Starting point is 01:07:58 I got to say, this was the least amount of any major I watched over the last few years was this Open this week. I just burned out. It was too many majors in a row. I was in on the hoops. It's summertime. And I'm just like, I'm just going to watch the last round. I don't really care what else happens.
Starting point is 01:08:15 It's been a while since coffee golf was in our lives. But this is coffee golf, right? This is you wake up in the morning. It's on. You check the leaderboard. You have your nice pot of coffee there. And you have to nice pot of coffee there and you have to like rebuild that familiarity
Starting point is 01:08:28 the relationship that you've had your whole life with the British Open but I was up to it I enjoyed it, I love waking up Thursday morning I was up 6.15 laying in bed didn't move but I was able to watch
Starting point is 01:08:44 some golf. It's just when especially the scene of it, right? It's not like anything you see here in the States. It's links. The colors are all different. The guys are wearing long clothes and stuff in the middle of the summer. It's hot here in D.C. and the guys are wearing long. I mean, I love it.
Starting point is 01:09:03 Do we get Ryder Cup this year or no? Yeah, yeah. So yeah the we have big time golf on the horizon the olympics is going to be super interesting that's two weeks away and then the pga tour championship which is you know the fedex cup playoffs and everything it's fine it's just an opportunity though to see the great players again come together in august which it'll be good and then the rider cup in in September. So there's still good, a lot of opportunities to see some great golf and a lot of intriguing storylines. Not the
Starting point is 01:09:30 least of which is Bryson DeChambeau, who is going to go be teammates with Colin Morikawa and Justin Thomas. And who am I forgetting? Xander Shoffley. No, it's Shoffley. Brooks?
Starting point is 01:09:46 No, it's Shoffley. It's Xander, Morikawa, DeChambeau. Go over to the Olympics. Oh, I got you. He's representing America, but he's been on this streak of brand management because he can't get out of his own way between his feud with Brooks and then complaining about his equipment at
Starting point is 01:10:09 this Open Championship, which was the dominant theme. I love that. Anytime it's a long paragraph apology to somebody's business relationship, you know something horrible happened. It was awesome because Cobra and he have a mutually assured destruction kind of relationship.
Starting point is 01:10:27 Like Cobra doesn't, not a lot of pros play the Cobra equipment. Bryson is by far their best player. Ricky plays it and Jason Duffner plays it. But Bryson, you know, they have indeed gone crazy trying to meet his needs over the years and his reinvention of his approach to golf over the last year, really just calendar year. All the weight he put on and all the swing speed and everything, the pressure that put on Cobra to try and meet him
Starting point is 01:10:57 where he wanted to be met has been astonishing. And the representative is like, bro, you got to slow your roll. And we're going to tell you right now politely to go fuck yourself. Because all we've done is try and accommodate you at every turn. And Bryson, to his credit, snapped too. His representative wrote a wonderful apology for him. Aaron Rodgers was like, I loved what you did.
Starting point is 01:11:21 Writing back at somebody that works with you. Our Olympics odds on FanDuel. By the way, we would never criticize FanDuel the way that Bryson went at Cobra.
Starting point is 01:11:32 No, we would never. FanDuel is great. Absolutely. Anyone, nobody would ever say anything bad about FanDuel. Jon Rahm is 5-1.
Starting point is 01:11:40 JT is 10-1. Morikawa is 10-1. Shoffley is 10-1. Rory, 10-1. And Bryson is 10-1. Morikawa is 10-1. Shoffley is 10-1. Rory 10-1. And Bryson is 11-1. Those are our best odds. Then it gets into like this. Matsuyama 12-1.
Starting point is 01:11:53 Hovland 14. Casey 22. Shane Lowry 22. Abe Anser 29. And then it gets crazier. My guy Tommy Fleetwood is 33-1 and Tommy Fleetwood might not
Starting point is 01:12:10 be my guy anymore anyway who do you like house well I mean those odds are all brutal odds you know it is a smaller field so it is the kind of field where there are maybe only like 15 guys that can win I want to sit down and look at the course a little bit
Starting point is 01:12:27 and just formulate a game plan around who's going to adapt the best to being over there, who's going to be able to handle the COVID stuff. So we're staying away. We're going to stay away. But on fairway rolling, you do it. And it might be a little bit of a lean towards the Asian players because it's really like Hideki. On the one hand,
Starting point is 01:12:49 it'll be the most pressure he probably will have ever felt. But on the other hand, he just won the Masters. So he's playing with house money. And he deliberately did not compete in the Open Championship because he had gone,
Starting point is 01:13:01 he had COVID a handful of weeks ago. And he was like, I'm just not in the right kind of shape to go over to Britain and try and compete, all that travel and everything. So I'm going to look and see who says they've been in Asia for a few weeks, acclimating to the time change and all that kind of stuff, and probably bet that way.
Starting point is 01:13:20 Speaking of acclimating, football. Got Warren Sharpe's book in the mail this week. Yes. Our guy Sharpe. Nice big fat one. That's right. 463 pages. Jesus.
Starting point is 01:13:33 The 2021 pre-football preview. If you love Sharpe, you heard him with House on the Ringer NFL show last season. And you'll be hearing him on the Ringer Airwaves again this year. He also does this giant book that has all his tendencies and it's become kind of one of the Bibles for, if you care about gambling, it's like, you kind of have to read it.
Starting point is 01:13:56 We're going to quickly talk just a couple win total and a playoff bet. So you mentioned the one that you can't believe is the Titans. The Titans right now on FanDuel, the over is nine. It's minus 150. Make your case for why we should be betting over on this. By the way, 17 game season, which I'm going to keep saying every time we talk about football bets over the next two months, 17 game season.
Starting point is 01:14:21 So it's not nine and seven anymore. It could be 10 and seven. Yeah, 10 and seven wins that bet could be 10 and seven. Yeah. 10 and seven wins that bet. Nine and eight pushes that bet. And I think that division is going to be an absolute train wreck. Houston and Detroit are going to compete for the worst team in the NFL. This upcoming season,
Starting point is 01:14:41 Houston hasn't figured out the Watson situation at all. I mean, they don't, we have no idea what's going to happen with that, but he's clearly not playing for them this year, it doesn't seem like.
Starting point is 01:14:50 It seems very unlikely that he's playing for them. And they were bad anyway. I can't wait to fade the Colts this season. I just can't believe the idea that Carson Wentz is salvageable
Starting point is 01:15:02 or is any kind of reclamation possible whatsoever. They do have a lot of blue chippers, though. That would be my only fear with that. Well, the one thing with the Colts is... You and I, you loved them last year. I did. I think you're just butthurt. I think you just lost too much money in the Colts last year.
Starting point is 01:15:20 I want to know who their backup quarterback ultimately is going to be. That's the decision for me with the Colts. Wow, you're that down on Wentz. Oh, what proof is there that he's capable of being a winning starting quarterback? When was the last time he was a winning starting quarterback? It's been some years.
Starting point is 01:15:41 Rack of my brain. It's been some years. So you like Tennessee? Yeah, because I'm fading the Colts. Houston is a debacle. And Jacksonville,
Starting point is 01:15:50 like, you know, first year Trevor Lawrence and first year Urban Meyer. I love that situation. To me, the Urban Meyer
Starting point is 01:15:58 thing is a bigger piece than Lawrence. Sure. Yeah. We have no idea of that, dude. We've seen college coaches.
Starting point is 01:16:03 Remember when Spurrier came and coached your team for a couple years? How'd that go? Oh, my God. sure that yeah we have no idea if that dude we've seen college coaches remember when uh spurrier came and coached your team for a couple years how'd that go god not not that's one of the ones i've also filed so deeply and far away for my consciousness yeah you've you've buried more bad sports experiences than any friend i have just these two-year aberration that were like the andre black three years with Andre Blatt Just burned in the back of your head Gone
Starting point is 01:16:27 I have a World Series And a Stanley Cup In the last five years Congrats I'm not complaining Can I give you an alternate Alternate Titans bet? Let's hear it
Starting point is 01:16:36 Because they have Alt win totals on FanDuel Okay Over 10.5 wins Plus 170 Yep I'll do that. I'll gladly do that.
Starting point is 01:16:46 11 and six. Fine. Over eight and a half wins is minus 175. I don't want to lay all that juice. It's too much juice. I'm confident, but I just don't, I tie up my money that way.
Starting point is 01:16:59 You're dumb ass team. Over nine and a half wins is plus 180. That's an alternative line, right? Alternate line. Over eight and a half is plus 100. So you get even odds. So nine and eight. Nine and eight.
Starting point is 01:17:14 Even odds. Man. Fitzmagic and Heineke. That's what I'm betting on. I thought your team was good last year. They went toe-to-toe with Tampa for three quarters. And they've made some really nice additions. The combination potentially of Curtis Samuel,
Starting point is 01:17:32 like a sleeper kind of fantasy kind of dude. Keep your eye on this connection between Fitzmagic and Samuel. There's a couple things about getting vertical. Scott Turner is dying to get vertical. I mean, he hasn't had a quarterback here capable of throwing the ball down the field since he's been here. Over 8.5, you kind of like a little bit? Yeah, I do. I do like over 8.5. 9 feels fine. And by the way, I don't think they're going to win the NFC East.
Starting point is 01:18:00 I think Dallas is. Sorry, cuz. Pats over 9 is my lock of the year. I think Dallas is. Sorry, cuz. Pats over nine is my lock of the year. There's no way we're not going 10 and seven. I still have reservations at the quarterback position. Now, I have reservations, Bill. We'll be fine. I mean, we tried that last year.
Starting point is 01:18:23 They were not fine. Who else do you have? What are some of your other favorites? I like the Eagles under. Let's see what the number is right now. What's the number on FanDuel? I have under six and a half. Plus 120.
Starting point is 01:18:40 A little low. Well, so six and 11. That's tough. Although I will say this, they are one of one in terms of the scheduling debacle. I think they play four games in 17 days, which is just so grossly unfair in this era where the league is allegedly much more focused on player safety and getting the guys the opportunity to recover. And that bet for me is a combination of the Dunderhead coach, who I absolutely think we're going to love because we need an Adam Gase replacement.
Starting point is 01:19:17 And I think this moron is just the guy. I'm going to love his press conferences. Yes, they're already wonderful. And then that schedule fuck that they have. They got schedule fucked. So that's a little under. I'll play a little bit on that one. Don't forget meager talent.
Starting point is 01:19:38 I mean, you know, Hertz, one of the stats in Warren's book that I saw very quickly is he had the lowest completion percentage compared to expected completion of any of 38 quarterbacks in the league last year. Small sample size, but still not completing the way you should. You like the Giants over seven? I don't know. I think maybe like right at seven. Seven and 10 sounds like a giants, uh, a record to me. Wait, I have a fun intermission for you. Uh, my son, Ben Simmons, back from IMG camp. Does he have clothes on? He's now five, eight. Um, Ben, come over here for one second. Can you just, there's house your buddy house. Wow. He's like, you're not, you're almost
Starting point is 01:20:24 a man, Ben Simmons. What's going on house's like, you're almost a man, Ben Simmons. I know. What's going on? House, can you give, I mean, Ben, can you give House your Space Jam review? Take your gum out. Give me your gum. I swallowed it. It was all right.
Starting point is 01:20:35 It was all right. Okay. It was all right? It wasn't good. It wasn't bad. It was just all right. What was your favorite part about it? The ending.
Starting point is 01:20:44 The ending was good? Don't tell me. Don't ruin it. No, I mean, the movie was over. Oh, that it ended? What was your favorite part about it? The ending. The ending was good? Don't tell me. Don't ruin it. No, I mean, the movie was over. Oh, that it ended? That was your favorite part? Yeah. It was terrible.
Starting point is 01:20:52 The acting was bad. The plot didn't make any sense. Was LeBron a good actor or no? LeBron was okay. You like LeBron, though. His generation loves LeBron. I like LeBron, too. I don't have any problem with LeBron.
Starting point is 01:21:03 I like him, but sometimes I feel like I have to swim against the stream. Ben, don't tell me who wins the game. I know there's a big game. So what was your final grade? C plus? Like a B minus B. Well, for him, that's like a D plus because he likes everything. Alright, thanks, Ben. Really electric
Starting point is 01:21:19 appearance from you. He has some 14-year-old boy things to do. Yeah, I don't know. It looks like there's some skateboarding. He'll probably be breaking something in about five minutes. All right, give me more over-unders.
Starting point is 01:21:33 I'm looking at the Rams. Tell me what the Rams number is right now. I looked at them as well. So they are over 10.5 as plus 125. They'd have to go 11 and 6. I love that one. I like that. I'm on that one this year, and I'm also going to play McVay for Coach of the Year.
Starting point is 01:21:50 Those odds are not out yet, but absolutely, I'm on McVay. I think that the synergy between him and the significant, you cannot be overstated, significant improvement at the quarterback position and how vertical they're capable of getting. Well, they're also built to be good for this year. They shared it at 130 draft picks. The only thing that will... Built for this season.
Starting point is 01:22:16 They have exactly 22 great players, I think, and then nothing behind it. So they really can't take on big injury, you know, whatever that stat is. You can't have a ton of injury games if you like the Rams over. Whatever that stat is, you mean injuries? Yes.
Starting point is 01:22:37 Well, you know, it's like missed games due to injury, that whole thing. Their alt win totals on FanDuel, 11.5 is plus 210, so they go 12-5. That's not far-fetched. Over 12.5 is plus 390.
Starting point is 01:22:54 They have to go 13-4. Nah, I'm not doing that. The reason I'm bringing this up is every year, in the old 16-game schedule, somebody would always go 13-3 or 14-2, right? Every year, we'd have the one team. So if you think the Rams can be the one seed in the NFC,
Starting point is 01:23:09 I would recommend the plus 390 over 12.5 because somebody's going to go 13-3 and be the one seed. So why not them? Who are the contenders in your mind as we sit here today in the middle of July? The one seed contenders? Yeah, turning on our football brains
Starting point is 01:23:25 because it's not Green Bay. It's not New Orleans. Is it, I mean, we're not. It's Tampa. It's Green Bay if Rodgers comes back. And it's San Francisco. Yeah, okay. So you do have San Francisco.
Starting point is 01:23:39 Well, not only do I have it, but on FanDuel, their division odds are better than the Rams division odds. Because that San Francisco concept not only do I have it, but on FanDuel, their division odds are better than the Rams division. That's because that, that, um, San Francisco,
Starting point is 01:23:48 uh, concept really puts a lot of pressure on, on Jimmy G. Doesn't it? Isn't he still the starting quarterback? He is, but they came within, you know,
Starting point is 01:23:58 uh, one incompletion of winning a Superbowl with them two years ago. Yeah. Two years. So that's your case against the win totals with the Rams. It's just their division. They have the Niners, the Seahawks, and the Cardinals.
Starting point is 01:24:11 And all those teams are 500 or better unless Kingsbury falls apart. But yeah, the Niners are plus 185. I don't know. The Saints, I guess, sometimes we write them off and then all of a sudden they're 5-1 or 6-1. I don't like them this year, I guess, sometimes we write them off and then all of a sudden they're 5-1 or 6-1.
Starting point is 01:24:27 I don't like them this year. They're a stay away. Jameis Winston? You want to bet on Jameis Winston? Atlanta seems like a year away. There's really not a lot of good teams in the NFC. That's another reason I think
Starting point is 01:24:38 the win totals thing because neither of us like the NFC East. NFC North, it's the Packers, and they're going to have that Rogers soap opera the whole year. I honestly think Minnesota might be, I might do a tiny bit on Minnesota as a little bit of a NFC North sleeper. I'm still kind of staring Atlanta down.
Starting point is 01:24:57 Yeah, I'm with you on that one as well. I think people fell off them because they traded Julio, and it's like, I'm not sure what Julio was for them at this point. He's a receiver heading into his mid-30s. So Arthur Brown, Arthur, what's his last name? FedEx Arthur. Yes, exactly.
Starting point is 01:25:13 Arthur Smith. They had the most one-score loss games of any team in the NFL last year. Yes. And so you and Schrager might have already talked about this a little bit. I've been on them for a while. I didn't want them to trade Julio,
Starting point is 01:25:28 but now I feel like the Julio thing has, has screwed up people's perception of them. Their wind total is, is yeah, it's seven and a half. I'm going to play the, I'm playing the over, uh,
Starting point is 01:25:39 for them. I like the over for them. I like the over eight and a half is plus one 40. So it was nine and eight. Nine, nine, eight. That's like a good season. I'm also thinking, I think there was a lot of smoke and mirrors shit with
Starting point is 01:25:53 Arizona last year. And if you really, I lost some bets on them last year where I was like, wow, this team's actually probably not that good. And their over is at 8. So the over is at eight. So the under is plus 110, which would be seven and 10.
Starting point is 01:26:11 But you think NFC West is loaded. So they went like one and five against the other three teams in that division. And then at that point. Even two and four, which is not like implausible. Two and four is not great either. And then they're 500 the rest of the way and they lose.
Starting point is 01:26:26 The thing, I'm just starting my research. As soon as the finals ends, we got the draft. Yeah, we have the book. It's a 463 page book which just came out for Christ's sakes. But we're just talking some early feels, some early things that we like
Starting point is 01:26:38 that we've seen out there. I have the first two weeks of August. For the first time in the history of this podcast, I'm just taking two weeks off. Wow. We for the first time in the history of this podcast. I'm just taking two weeks off. Wow. We're just going to have no podcast in this feed. I'm not doing stupid gimmick shit. It's just out.
Starting point is 01:26:53 So I'm going to use part of those two weeks to read Warren Sharpe's book and a whole bunch of other magazines and really, really be ready. I want this to be like, I felt like we had so much momentum on this podcast with the playoffs last year. Schrager is going to be on every Thursday. You guys are picks you and Schrager. We're cleaning up. We're doing great. He's, he's having a good flying coach season right now, which I hope people are listening to that podcast. Cause they're terrific. I think he's had eight coaches, but really good. The Shanahan pod was one of the best pods we've run this year. I love it so much. The funniest thing, of course, was him talking about, well, we ran the ball, whatever percentage he's claiming
Starting point is 01:27:33 they ran the ball in the Super Bowl. I mean, buddy, that's not the stat that anybody cares about. You just needed to fall down three times and not you lose yardage and then kick a field goal to win the Super Bowl. And he didn't totally want to throw Matt Ryan under the bus. Well, I mean, why was he dropping back to pass? Whose fault is that? Right, right. It's fine.
Starting point is 01:27:57 Hey, quickly, Miami? Yeah. Over is nine and a half. That seems high. It's just too... That's a 10 and seven for Tua. We're asking a lot out of Tua. Now, that defense is legit. It's a good team.
Starting point is 01:28:12 Good team, well coached. Yep, exactly. But, man, I need to know what I'm getting out of Tua, and I really need to know what I'm getting out of the backup. No more Fitzmagic in Miami to bail them out. Last thing for you, and then we'll go. The Olympic basketball odds. We're on this.
Starting point is 01:28:29 We're doing this this year. We've had success before with this. I've already stepped in. Oh, you didn't even tell me. You cheated on me. I did. Well, because I knew
Starting point is 01:28:41 you would do it and the odds hadn't changed and I just... I did Slovenia at 25 to win. I do it and the odds hadn't changed. And I just... I did Slovenia at 25 to 1. I'm on that. You know I'm on that. That's just...
Starting point is 01:28:51 Who do we think... That's just a smart bet. It's just like, could Luka beat this weird American team by himself? That's right. Yeah, he actually could. That's it. Or could this weird USA team get beaten by somebody else
Starting point is 01:29:02 and then Luka has some, you know, Phoenix Suns-like path where he's in the finals because he got caught some breaks and played really well. That's right. So that's the bet. I studied Slovenia's team a little bit, hoping to recognize anybody else's name other than Luke. I could not,
Starting point is 01:29:17 but they beat a Lithuania team that had Jonas found Schooners and a bonus on it. Is there not another pro on Slovenia? It's like not anybody anyone's heard of. Okay. So, US is minus 370 on FanDuel. Australia is plus 500. Yeah, I'm betting that.
Starting point is 01:29:34 Spain is 14 to 1. I'm betting that. You're betting Spain? Yeah, sure. Yes. They have NBA players. I'm betting all the teams that have NBA players. France? I'm NBA players. I'm betting all the teams that have NBA players.
Starting point is 01:29:46 I'm betting Nigeria. I'm going to bet Nigeria to medal. Not to win, but to medal. France is 23-1. Slovenia 25-1. Nigeria 29-1. I was intrigued by the Nigerians until I remembered Mike Brown
Starting point is 01:30:00 was the coach. It's a nice story, but come on, Mike Brown's not winning. They're not going to win, but is there a bronze? Maybe there's a nice story, but come on. Mike Brown's not winning the Olympic gold medal. Is there a bronze? Maybe there's a bronze. We'll be able to bet that as it gets closer. I'm shocked by the Australia odds. What? The
Starting point is 01:30:14 5-1? It's way too high. If you told me it was plus 160, I would bet it. Not even kidding. Plus odds for Australia. The parallel 0-4, which we, when we won on Argentina,
Starting point is 01:30:28 one of our greatest wins. You joined me on that one, didn't you? Yes. Oh, yes, I did. And the money mattered back then, believe me. Manu,
Starting point is 01:30:35 Luis Scola, I think was on that team, but Manu specifically. Yeah. And was kind of the superstar of that team. But they were good. It was like Manu and a bunch of role guys.
Starting point is 01:30:44 You need like a, you need the guy who can go toe-to-toe. When we almost lost to Spain in 2012, they had both Gasols. Those guys were like, we can actually legitimately get,
Starting point is 01:30:53 and they had Juan Carlos Navarro and Jose Calderon. Like, that was a good team. Slovenia, it's just Luka against the world. And, you know, if it's like
Starting point is 01:31:03 Durant, Tatum, Dame, we have no Bradley Beal now. JaVale McGee's on this team. They have six guys I trust. I guess Middleton and Booker are going to be on there.
Starting point is 01:31:13 Maybe Booker will make me feel better about this team. Because the other way I was thinking was USA minus 370, we might never get better odds than that ever, right? They're adding Middleton, Booker, and Drew Holiday to this team. Yep.
Starting point is 01:31:29 I still like the other teams. Well, they should have a bet like just the field. Yeah. It's like USA is minus 370. Just give me all the other teams. Well, yeah, we'll have to lay juice for that, which is fine. You're right, by the way it was Manu it was Luis Scola
Starting point is 01:31:48 Alberto Andres Nocioni yeah oh Nocioni I liked him Nocioni yeah Delfino Carlos Delfino they were good alright so then that hurts the Slovenia bet because then the blueprint is you need five
Starting point is 01:32:04 NBA type guys because that's what Spain had. Spain really could have won in 08 or in 12. They could have beaten us. Australia kind of fits it though. For the people listening at home who are probably outraged that House and I would bet against America
Starting point is 01:32:19 in the Olympics. We don't see red, white, and blue when we gamble. We see green. Our national color is green. It's basically the no-win scenario of all time. If America wins, we're great. We're American. If they lose, they're like,
Starting point is 01:32:37 I told you they were going to lose. At least I made money for it. So we can't lose either way. All right, House. We'll hear you on Fairway Rolling. Yes. And come back on Ringer NFL show near the end of the year. And you have no first round pick as usual in the NBA draft next week. Yes.
Starting point is 01:32:54 Yeah, we do. We have the 15th. I thought you traded it for Westbrook. I thought that was 23 because you're not allowed. So you do have a first round pick. I think so. I'm pretty sure that's true. I like some of the guys in that 13 to 15 range.
Starting point is 01:33:08 Yeah, we need an athletic. We need to figure out a player to help solve the catastrophe that is Davis Bertans. So we need another athletic, defending, rim-running kind of player. We argued about it on this pod and you defended the Berton signing. You defended it. I did not know how bad he was defensively.
Starting point is 01:33:32 He literally, there's not one player in the entire NBA that I would feel comfortable saying he can defend. Who's winning game six? The Milwaukee Bucks. Congratulations to Milwaukee Nation.
Starting point is 01:33:45 I think so as well. Giannis now minus 430 for finals MVP. I got him at plus 130. Yeah, there you go. All right, house. Great to see you. Good job by you. Good times.
Starting point is 01:33:54 Good job by you. All right, that's it for the podcast. Back Tuesday night, me and Rosillo. We are going to be in person for the first time since pre-pandemic. We're going to watch game six together and then we're going to do a podcast about it. So that is coming up. This podcast was produced by the one and only Kyle Creighton. I will see you on the rewatchables feed on Monday for Fight Club. And
Starting point is 01:34:14 then I will see you on this feed for Tuesday for game six. We'll see if the Bucks can close it. See you then. I don't have I don't have I don't have I don't have I don't have

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