The Bill Simmons Podcast - Buffalo’s Ram Sandwich, Plus Week 1's Million Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager and Benjamin Solak

Episode Date: September 9, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares his thoughts on the Bills' win over the Rams (2:24), before he is joined by NFL Network's Peter Schrager to discuss this year's Super Bowl contenders, why the Chiefs are both of their Super Bowl picks, the case for the Packers to win the NFC, and more (12:45), before they kick around a few bets for Million Dollar Picks (36:16). Then, Bill talks with The Ringer's Benjamin Solak about some of his favorite Week 1 matchups to bet, including Buccaneers-Cowboys, Eagles-Lions, Jaguars-Commanders, Patriots-Dolphins, 49ers-Bears, and more (1:04:07). Finally, after much deliberation, Bill reveals the Million Dollar Picks for NFL Week 1 (1:30:38). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager and Benjamin Solak Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, we launched two new Ringer podcasts this week. One is called the Ringer's Philly Special. It covers Philly sports. You can listen to Shilka Padia and Ben Solak break down the Eagles this week. And after Sunday's game, they'll be right there after with the Reaction Pod. They'll be there twice a week.

We'll have some Sixers stuff as well. Also, Kevin Clark, he was on this podcast Tuesday. He launched his video series, Slow News Day, as a video podcast. So subscribe to both. Follow on Spotify. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey, and it's on Prime. All season long, watch Prime Monday Night Hockey

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Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong. You could bet on new and fun markets

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Please visit RG-Help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. And listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I went on off the pike with Brian Barrett to talk about the New England Patriots on Wednesday's podcast. So that's happening.

On another Ringer podcast, the Prestige TV podcast, Mallory Rubin and I, we talked about the first episode of American Gigolo on Showtime, the remake of the movie with Richard Gere. And it starts on Sunday night on Showtime. We'll pop the podcast on sometime over the weekend. They start running those early on Showtime. So we'll put it up sometime on Sunday.

Stay tuned for that. I also went on Mina Kimes' podcast this week, and we talked about a bunch of these games and some theories about Tom Brady and Russell Wilson and the Patriots. So if you haven't heard Mina's podcast, it's really good. She is a great friend of The Ringer,

and you can go check that out. Coming up on this podcast, well, we're here. Football. We made it. It's happening. We're going to do million-dollar picks. We blew out million-dollar picks this year.

Peter Schrager is back. I'm going to explain what we're going to do with him. And then Benjamin Solak from The Ringer, he is joining as well for a second guest to do million-dollar picks with me. And we're going to have a couple of wrinkles with that. And then at the tail end,

I'm going to take all the information from us, all the stuff we liked, and I'm going to do a little five-minute thing for Million Dollar Picks. So there you go. Top of the podcast,

we're going to talk Rams-Bills. First game of the season, that's next. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, I'm taping this. It's 8.15 Thursday night. I somehow already lost a million-dollar pick. I had the Rams and the Tees.

We did it on Tuesday with the Chiefs. Tees, the Rams up to eight and a half. Was feeling pretty good about it. The Rams looked awful. The Bills looked better than I thought. And this was the worst-case scenario for me because now the Bills fans. First of all, Bills fans, settle down. Act like you've been there before.

You've won zero Super Bowls. Don't start strutting your chest out because you won a game. It was a very fair question to ask. Are we overrating the Bills a little bit? Are we throwing them into this Super Bowl without even playing the season yet? Are we just penciling them in for 20-0? Well, it looks like they could go 20-0 after today. I think it's a fair question now.

The Bills killed the Rams. It was tough to watch because at halftime, it was 10-10. The Rams had gotten three turnovers from the Bills. And when you're home and you're only tied after getting three turnovers, you should be up by at least a touchdown. So that's what I knew. And then you get into this whole gambling thing. Do I hedge? Should I just take the bills? Well, if I hedge the first part, I could still lose the second part. None of it mattered because the bills

absolutely dominated. I mean, the first downs on third down, they were nine for 10. They had 22 first downs at all. I don't think we saw their punter. Maybe we did in the fourth quarter. I can't even remember. They were dominant. And to me, the stuff that I noticed between the two teams was that the Bills seemed like they actually added to their team and made their team better. Von Miller was huge, obviously, if you watch the game, you know that he was one of the biggest players in the game. Jameson Crowder actually helped them. Isaiah McKenzie, who had some moments last year, just looked like they were a little more well-rounded. And their offensive line, they were running behind the left side and just pounding. So I felt better about the 2022 Bills than I did about the 2021 Bills. Again, it's one

game. The thing I really want to talk about is the Rams, because the Rams, you could feel it the whole game. They couldn't block. The running backs, I thought all three backs on the Bills looked better than any of the Rams running backs. It was cut by himself. We never saw Allen Robinson. At one point, I was trying to remember, did Emmanuel Sanders retire or Allen Robinson? Then I realized it was Emmanuel Sanders.

Robinson was out there, wasn't doing a lot. They had no deep threat. They obviously missed Odell in a huge way. They missed the way he could stretch the field. But over and over again, it just kind of felt like it was Cup and a bunch of random dudes, which is how the Super Bowl felt. And they pulled it off and they barely went ahead that drive. But this time around, you think they lose Von Miller. They replace him with Wagner, who did not have the greatest game. The offensive line, they lose Andrew Whitworth. So the offensive line looks worse.

The running backs, they never address that. Collinsworth mentioned there might be too much pressure on Cup. And you could feel it during the game. At one point, I think he had probably 60% of the targets that Stafford had. So there's that. What is he going to have, 170 targets this year?

They're just going to have to figure out how to help him in some way. The game management was awful. What they did in the last three minutes, I thought that was bad. They called timeout with 2.16 left, basically gave Buffalo a fourth timeout, somehow got an interception, and then couldn't even figure out how to manage the clock. They settled for a field goal, 10-10. Then they start the third quarter. Guy takes it out of the end zone, gets tackled at the 10, three and out. Buffalo has the ball basically at midfield. And at that point, you would bet anything Buffalo is going to win the game.

All of this was really, really alarming, I felt. And there's some Super Bowl hangover stuff that you feel like is a piece of this. So I went back and I looked at the 21st century teams that just kind of stunk the next season, stunk for a Super Bowl champ, right? And we have five. We have the 2003 Buccaneers, who went seven and nine after they won the Super Bowl.

The 2006 Steelers, 8-8. And they had the Roethlisberger off the field stuff. There was some off the field stuff that I think affected that. 2012 Giants, 9-7. 2013 Ravens, 8-8. And the 2018 Eagles, 9-7. And there's other teams that weren't good the next year, but they were teams that transitioned, right? Like the Broncos, they moved from Peyton Manning to just a slew of

quarterbacks that sucked for the next six years. In 1999, same thing with the Broncos, where Elway retired, they moved Brian Greeson, and they weren't totally the same team. I think these five teams, 03 Bucks, 06 Steelers, 2012 Giants, 2013 Ravens, and 2018 Eagles, the year after the Philly Special. Those are the five that I guess would be the parallels for this. And really the 03 Bucks, I think, and the 2013 Ravens, especially because those were older teams that kind of went all in to try to win the Super Bowl. They did.

And then the next year, all hell broke loose. The 2013 Ravens, ironically, they played the first game of the year at home and they lost by 22. The Rams lost tonight by 21. I don't think any of this is good for the Rams. And it just looks like they're worse. They look slower. And I was alarmed.

Even when it was 10-10, it just didn't feel like there was, I was on multiple texts like, wow, they just don't look like they're on the same level as this Bills team. I don't know what this means for the NFC going forward because I only really had six playoff teams that I liked. And if the Rams are just going to have one of those seasons,

yikes. Minnesota, Green Bay, San Francisco, Trey Lance, I don't know. Philly, I like. Tampa. Then you start going into, can Carolina surprise us? That was my sleeper team. New Orleans. But we might be in a situation where the AFC is just way, way,

way more loaded than the NFC. And you look at Buffalo, they have, by my account, five tough games left, which three of them are coming up. Week three at Miami, week four at Baltimore, week six at Kansas City, week eight home for Green Bay, and week 17 at Cincinnati. The fact that they took this one down and they're 1-0, I mean, they answered certainly some of the questions I had. They look better than they did last year. They responded to the hype. But then going forward, if the schedule is a little bit easy, they look like they've just completely unlocked Josh. And one of the things I worried about with them was what happens with Brian Dayball leaving. Turns out that didn't matter. The new offensive coordinator came in.

He crushed it. He was able to use Allen rushing around. And I was really impressed by Buffalo. But I'm also not sure if the Rams are good. And that sounds like I'm pouring water on the Buffaloing. And I'm really not. Because Buffalo didn't play that well. They turned the ball over three times in the first half. It wasn't like they were lights out.

Second half, they were lights out. And the fact that we ended at 31-10 with four turnovers Buffalo ends up having. We're going to know four weeks from now, alright, was Buffalo that good or did the

Rams stink? And that's the great thing about week one. You can jump to, I overreacted to this game 19 times as it was going along. Are the Rams bad or is Buffalo this good? And that's one of those things you just don't know for a couple of weeks, but I would lean toward, Buffalo is probably really good. I don't know if they're 17 and 0 good, but they're really good. But the Rams might be really bad. And it just doesn't look like they did enough.

The Allen Robinson thing, wow, they didn't even use him. The fact that Cam Akers, who I think went for $21 in one of my free agent auctions, the fact that he did nothing. So that's my big takeaway. My big takeaway is watch out for this Ram season because there is a history. We do have five teams in the last 20 years that after they won the Super Bowl, they just sucked. And if you go back and you look at some of the gambling with those teams, there's some real opportunity the first few weeks.

I wish I had exploited that with Million Dollar Picks. Sadly, I did not. But we're going to take a break. We're going to come back. Million Dollar Picks with Schrager. And we taped this a little bit earlier, so we mentioned the Bills-Rams game for a second, but not really. But that's coming next.

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is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lights today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. All right, we're taping this part of the podcast. It is afternoon Thursday before the Rams-Bills game. The king of the let's go party is here. My man, Peter Schrager from the NFL Network and from Fox. Give it to me.

Let's go. We are here, dude. We made it. We made it. And we have the same Super Bowl pick. You told me to watch your Super Bowl pick this morning on Good Morning Football. And I'm like, cool. I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who has this pick. Everyone's taking the bills. You did a whole thing on the show, a montage of pretending Tom Brady took the bills And just like everybody in the planet is taking the bills I'm like I'm so fired up I love the Chiefs

I've already said that on this pod And over the last week or so I talked to myself and the Packers We'll get in all the case And I'm like I got Chiefs over Packers in the Super Bowl I haven't seen that in a lot of places I'm excited And then I'm watching you

You have the Packers You say the Chiefs And you get to the part where you're going to rip off your shirt. And I'm like, this is great. He's going to rips and Packers doesn't seem like an outlandish pick to your point. It's you, me. And I got a tweet from a musician come to my window, Melissa Etheridge saying, Hey, I have the chiefs over the Packers too. So it's you, me and Etheridge, baby. We're in on this. The big three. So it's 50 to one on FanDuel which pretty good odds because you know there's been so much action on the Bills and

we've been talking about this on my pod for the last two weeks to me and people go you know especially our buddy Kyle Brandt people are like oh you guys are just hating on the Bills

I'm not hating on the Bills I just don't understand why we have gone chalk on the Bills to win the AFC that this is now a foregone conclusion in my mind there's someone between 8 and 10 teams that I think have a chance at

the Super Bowl this year. I think five of them are in the AFC. You got the Bills. I'm throwing the Ravens in there. Sure. The Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers. Vegas, no, but Vegas kind of lingering and the Broncos lingering. So we'll get them in the lingering spot. And then on the other side, Packers, Bucks, Rams, but Vegas kind of lingering and the Broncos lingering. So we'll get them in the lingering spot.

And then on the other side, Packers, Bucks, Rams, Niners. So I'm already at 10. And then I got the Eagles and the Vikings kind of lingering. So you can go between 8 and 12. My point is the Bills are not head and shoulders above any of those teams I just mentioned. Let's move on because I have no idea what's going to happen tonight. Our point is that this is, I think, more wide open, especially in the AFC, than I think people are giving it credit for. For some reason, it's either Bills and people seem to like the Niners a little. There's

some Packers stuff, some Eagles stuff. I just think it's wide open and I think you can pick apart every team. Let's talk about the Chiefs and the, and the Packers and why we like them. I've made the case in the chiefs. You are Bolton Jersey today. Explain the Bolton Jersey. Nick Bolton is a second year player. I had to get it specifically made for me. I called the chiefs like team shop. And I talked to my guy in the equipment room, like we got to get Nick Bolton. So he changed from 54 to 32 second year linebacker.

I think he's going to be an absolute sensation this year. And with Bolton and Carl Laftis, the first year pass rusher, they have two of the best young defensive players to watch this season. You add that to Clark and you add that to Chris Jones, you got a good core four. Now everyone thinks, well, they lost the honey badger or they lost, you know, that they got rid of guys that might've been weak spots for them last year and upgraded at all of those positions, whether it be adding car loft is on one edge or getting Justin Reed at the safety spot, who is a very talented player. The chiefs are not going to be the chiefs that we saw the last few years where they score a bunch of points and you just hold onto your pants and hope that Daniel Sorenson doesn't give up a bomb.

This is going to be a different team. And last year, the defense did pick up. I went with the Nick Bolton jersey, second year guy out of Missouri, because I think this is a defensive led team. This is a team that you don't want to face in Arrowhead with that defense. And I think the defense is going to be greatly improved and the offense is going to be just fine without Tyreek Hill. And we, I don't want to make the same Mahomes points that I've made the last couple of podcasts, but I like him coming off a disappointing year. I like him kind of getting lost in the shuffle a little bit with Josh Allen and Herbert and people like that. And, you know, I think there's gonna be a little chip on the shoulder there. You made the key point. The

defense is a little better than people think. They spent the two first rounders on Carl Lapkus and McDuffie. And the Chris Jones piece, we know about that. Frank Clark, maybe? There's been some buzz, right? There's been some comeback buzz. He's in the mix. I just think their defense is pretty good.

I'm just looking at value right now. I'm looking at teams that either people aren't on or people are looking at incorrectly. So the Tyreek Hill thing, I think people moved off them a little bit because they're not the Chiefs anymore, but they just redistributed those resources and the money and the whole thing. And the offensive line is the best he's had since he's been there. Same thing with the Packers where they lose Devontae Adams. And if you're going to pick apart the Packers,

you know, Rodgers got paid. Offensive line, a little nervous. What are we getting out of Bakhtiari? We're going to be able to get 20 games out of him. I get that aspect. I get the, oh, young receivers. Maybe he won't be able to figure it out early. I get all of that stuff.

But they are bringing back Jair Alexander. Yes, they are. And if you just think like, if you separate yourself out of it, I know this is stupid, but it's like, would you trade Devontae Adams for the picks they got and Jair Alexander? Getting him back. He didn't play it right. He was injured last year. If you think of it that way, and you think how close they came in that San Francisco

game where they're kicking themselves. They have the ball with the best player in the league and all he has to do is have a drive and he just can't do it. And there's bad weather, but he's home. They're in a spot that they could have won. They were in the mix. They were knocking on the door. Well, if they win that game, nothing against the Rams or the Buccaneers, they're going. Like if they win that, that's their worst matchup. A team as big and as physical as the 49ers who could play in those conditions and then special teams bit them in the ass at the end. The punts. And obviously they couldn't do

anything. That was all season their story. Look, like you said... Well, that's my fear for them this year. It's like, is that going to happen again? It won't. Is it going to be the same thing where they just shoot yourself in the foot? Oh, the pit boss Rich is here! You and Cousin Sal were like joking and a little bit like, he's the best special teams coach in football. He's one of them. And like they just, that's

a huge upgrade for them. And so he comes to green Bay. They cleaned it up as far as what they're going to be doing. And you mentioned it, the wide receiver thing doesn't scare me nearly as much as the offensive line does last year, their offensive line played awesome without Bakhtiari and without Jenkins, who are two tremendous players. Everyone thinks they're coming back. Week one is a few hours away and I'm not sure they're going to be starting week one Bakhtiari or Jenkins. We don't know yet. We'll see if they're up. But last year for what they got out of an offensive line that was like Yosh Naiman and John Runyon Jr. And a lot of guys that Royce Newman and Jake Hanson, guys that like were not expected to have to step

up and be good. They were all really good. So if you add in Bakhtiari and Jenkins, who are all pro players to an offensive line that was really good last year with second tier players, that's a huge upgrade. They also have a fourth round. This is real deep Packers talk. And you might be thinking like, well, but this kid, Zach Tom, that they got in the fourth round, played awesome in preseason.

So Packers, let's say the offensive line's upgraded. Let's say the defense, which is already good. Well, wait, on the offensive line, quick question, because this happened with a couple of Brady Patriot seasons where it was like, oh my God, that guy's out and this guy's out. And this undrafted guy is going to play guard for us now. And this guy who's never snapped is going to be the center. There's a certain level of quarterback that can, especially the guys that get rid of the ball fast and just know what they want to do. I'm just not as worried if their offensive line is like mediocre. I'm more worried about it if it's like Mitch Trubisky in front of the Pittsburgh offensive line. Then it's like,

all right, now I'm worried if it's like third and nine and you can't block for Mitch Trubisky. So there's that piece. And then, you know, the other thing with the receivers, I look at it the other way. Jones and Dillon is probably the best one-two punch right now. You can see it in all the fantasy drafts in the auction. Dillon was like, in the drafts I was doing, he was like a $12 guy, a $13 guy as a backup. And I just wonder, is this going to be a... I think we both agree this is a top three or four defense, maybe even higher than that. And could this just be a defense ball control, better special teams, great home field advantage,

and this Dylan Jones combo, and they're just grinding teams. And it's like 24-14, you know, 23 to 10. And is that, is that the season you see in your head? Because that's what I see. No, I also see Rodgers going scorched earth on everybody that they think that he's going to fall apart without Devontae Adams. So I think the offense is going to be just fine. And to your point, Robert Tunyon gets back, a guy that Rodgers has loved since he first stepped on the field. Mercedes Lewis, all these guys are back.

And there is a Rodgers FU mode here where he plays plays like this possessed guy and this could be the swan song. Like, I don't know if Rogers is in this for three, four more years. I don't know. This could be, Hey, I'm going to go out.

I'm going to win the conference. I'm going to slay all those dragons that I can't win home playoff games anymore. Like of significance. Uh, and quite frankly, Bill, like I wish I could tell you there's an NFC team that I'm like circling

at the Rams. It's just so damn hard to repeat the Buccaneers. Too many weird things. Too many X factors. And there's an NFC team that I'm circling. The Rams, it's just so damn hard to repeat. The Buccaneers, too many weird things. Too many X factors. There's one team. Can I give you a caveat, Tim? Yeah, yeah, yeah. If Jimmy G is the quarterback for the Niners by weekend, I could see flipping. Is that damage done already?

That's a lot. That's so much drama if you now go to Jimmy G and everyone's going to be on board. There's a lot of emotions in that decision doing that. And that's not a very natural, smooth thing to do. Why is he still there? Walk this through me. Cause here's what we know. Okay. This is from all the breadcrumbs we've been able to grab. Jimmy G is on his way out. They, they, both sides decide we're going to trade him. He's got to recover from the shoulder thing. Value not quite what they thought it's like all right we'll get to training camp where they're going to trade you or let's face it probably release you because it saves so much money

there's rumors of seattle kind of lingering and waiting now people think oh they're just going to take this to the you know 11 59 mark and wave them because they play Seattle and we too, they don't want to go against Jimmy. We hear all this stuff and you kind of tipped us off on this two weeks ago. You want to totally say it, that Jimmy is basically, he's like, he got George Costanza. He's just going to the office and there's no phone and no computer. And it's like, please stay out of these meetings. 25 million. Okay, I'll show up. They just kind of kept them to the office and there's no phone and no computer. And it's like, please stay out of these meetings. 25 million. Okay, I'll show up.

They just kind of kept him to the side, right? And yet, and yet, I'm doing the wind horse. There's a lot of like, like tiny, I don't know about this Trey Lance. Not really seeing it in this preseason. And here's the thing with football. And I think it's the only sport that this qualifies for. You can't give somebody a job that doesn't deserve it in football. You can get away with it with basketball, right? You can play like the first round pick who can't really shoot yet. You can bring them in off the

rotation as a ninth man. I don't think you do it with quarterback. And I don't think you can do it with quarterback. And I don't think you can do it when the guy who's the backup is the guy that you came really close to making the Super Bowl with when he was playing hurt last year and you had a good record with. And if this guy's that inferior, I said this before, but the Patriots had this last year with Mac Jones when they basically had to send Cam Newton packing because he was such a forceful personality. Now you have Jimmy, the Niners have won games with him. They've come within the precipice of him. The locker room likes him. They thought they're pushing him out to give Lance the team. It just has all the, I'm not the only one who thinks this. It has all the makings of could Jimmy be the QB by week 10? What do you think? What's your intel? Great comparison.

Cam Newton couldn't just sit there and be holding a clipboard. Jimmy Garoppolo is a rare dude. Everybody at San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo has not only taken on this role, but he's okay with it for now. And now he's a competitor. He's going to want it. Such a different type of relationship than one that you've seen with traditional starting quarterbacks at back where they think it could actually work. But here's why this all makes

sense for both sides too. The price for Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't going to get any lower. Now that quarterbacks are going to get injured. Now that there's going to be teams that are really quarterback hungry. He's got a no trade clause, but that doesn't mean they can't trade him. If a team loses their quarterback midway through the season, Jimmy Garoppolo could still be traded to them. He's just to prove it. That said, his shoulder is not ready yet. So his value now is kind of marginal is what it would be.

And then the backup quarterback to San Francisco may be more important than any other backup situation in the league because of the Lance unknown. So if you get the personalities down and they're okay with this and Lance isn't going to crumble just having Jimmy around, it makes a lot of sense. And then last point, if Jimmy does go on and sign a contract next year with say whatever team, the Bears or whoever, Jimmy Garoppolo, they get a compensatory pick in this. If they just cut them, they get nothing. So they might get a third or fourth or fifth back in and they're great at the draft. It made a lot of sense from the Niners thing, but this is all on paper. People have emotions. Teammates understand. And my big question with it

is Trent Williams is 32 and is the best fucking left tackle in football. George Kittle's 28 looking for a contract. Kyle Juszczyk is 31 and is a great fullback who's been in Super Bowls before. These guys don't need to necessarily want to wait for the quarterback to develop and, well, we've lost three games because of Trey Lance, but he's coming along. This is a win-now team that is very different than a Jacksonville or a Jets or a Chicago or even the Patriots where you can let the quarterback figure things out on the fly in year two and kind of roll around him. The margin for error is so slim for Trey Lance. Not that he's going to get benched, but that he might lose the faith of those veteran players who really have won already and want to win again. Well, favorable for him is the schedule is pretty easy for them the first

two weeks, right? But God forbid they lose. What happens if you lose to Chicago week one? What's that situation? At Chicago week one, Seattle at home week two. You can't ask for a better combo than that, I don't think. Two and O should be a nice question. Maybe work in Houston

in there somewhere. They're at Denver week three and then they play one of the LA teams on a Monday night. I just have Los Angeles written down. I think it's the Rams.

The Rams, yeah. But then at Carolina, at Atlanta, Kansas City, and then at LA, one of the LA teams. That's tough. Neither of which would be great. The Rams, you tipped us off on this like two weeks ago. You were a little worried about the Super Bowl hangover thing. I was worried about that plus the Stafford piece of it.

It seems like Stafford's pretty healthy. I guess we'll find out tonight. But what have you heard? I know by the time people listen to this, they'll know. But what have you heard about his health? Yeah, that he looks good. There's really some vague area as to what exactly he got done. He did say, or they said at some point, procedure.

But then that might have been something minor, just like drain, like whatever it is. And we'll see if- Wait, are we talking about Tom Brady's face or Stafford's elbow? What body part are we talking about? Nicely done. It's a baseball injury though, which is never something I'm confident about,

but I've spoken to Stafford this off season. He looks good. He feels good. Obviously I've spoken to McVay and Liam Cohen, the offensive coordinator. They're not worried about it. So if they're not worried about it, I'm not necessarily worried about it. My concern is just they had this miracle run last year over 22 weeks and needed about a

thousand things to go right down the stretch, and they still found a way to win it. It's so damn hard to do it again. I don't know. I'm just very leery of picking repeat champions. And as good as they are, and they might win it again, and I'll be proven wrong, I wasn't going to put my name on that. I have four playoff teams, division winners, going from one seed to four. Casey is the one seed, Buffalo, Cincy, Indianapolis. And then for the wildcard teams, Chargers, Ravens. I struggled with the seventh team. One of the reasons I picked Denver was because you're really bullish on Denver. And

sometimes I don't totally trust you because I don't know, like, oh, he loves the coach. He's probably had bloody marries with the guy one day and he's just, he's hearing what he wants to hear. With the Denver thing, I actually, it just seems like you like the coach and Russell Wilson. And what else do you like about that Denver team? I love this Denver team this year. That to me is a fan base and an organization that has just been like bristling for an opportunity to be worthy of talking about, worthy of putting on Sunday night. This is a perfect marriage of quarterback and Russell Wilson, who is two years removed from having any real success and wants to prove himself and has been, trust me, not only the model citizen, but the model franchise leader since he got there in the morning at all crazy hours. The stuff that

you heard about Stafford last year. And then a head coach who was Aaron Rodgers' right-hand man last year and the year before in his MVP seasons, who I believe is going to draft up a really good offense. Then you put in the new ownership group, an ownership group that is already putting in a ton of resources. They were in purgatory the last few years with the Boland family, not knowing what the future of the team was that I don't think that's a great place to work into work environment every day. Now, they've got an owner who's willing to spend money, a owner who's

got a lot of money and an owner who's able to mispronounce the last name of the commissioner and get away with that because, well, that's just what it is. You put in those three things and then you just add in a fan base and a home field advantage that has been dormant for seven years. I think, you know, Denver's having a sports moment, whether it be the avalanche or Joe Kitch and what he's doing with the Nuggets and the football team's been irrelevant. I feel like this is the perfect marriage, perfect quarterback, perfect head coach for this organization. And I think this is the year that we all start talking about guys like Justin Simmons, who's fantastic. Sertan, who's fantastic. Cortland Sutton and Jerry Judy,

who haven't reached their full potential because they haven't had a quarterback in their careers. And I think it's the perfect moment for Javante Williams to make that leap where it's like, he's in the conversation. They've had the players, they have the organization. Now they've got the coach and the quarterback. And I think they're certainly worthy of playoff consideration.

You had Javante as your number one breakout guy. Yes, number one. One of the best segments you do is that top 10, my top 10 breakout guys in the NFL. You count them down. You've had some good success with it. Javante was number one. Javante was going way too high in every auction I was in this week

because there's still that Melvin Gordon piece where you spend all that money on him. You're watching the Broncos game. And then it's like, all right, Melvin Gordon's going to play this series. And you're like, what? It's with Dave Chabate Williams. Just play him. I liked your Denver sports moment thing.

There's one other piece. And this is what pushed it over the top for me with the seventh seed. The hit piece coming out of Seattle about Russell Wilson that ESPN had on Wednesday. I was like, here we go, baby. You know that's coming from somewhere. Yeah. You usually have a piece like that in June, July. That one was nice and close to the season. It was all the stuff we had assumed and thought. And we knew there was a weird relationship there for three, four years. It was like kind of watching a bad marriage from afar that everyone was

pretending was fine. But the moment the couple separates, you're like, I knew it. I knew they were going to separate. And with that, when that piece came out, it also backed up a lot of the stuff that my eyes saw that I didn't think he was moving around in the same way. So if that doesn't light a fire on him, Peter Schrager, I don't know what does. There's no way he didn't read it. There's no way he wasn't pissed off about it. He hears it all. And I'll tell you, the same things were being said about Brady two years ago, and the same things were being said about Stafford a year ago. When Brady left New England, there was a lot of people who were like, I mean, look, Brady looked fine.

They got to the playoffs, but it's no longer going to be the Tom Brady of old. He went to Super Bowl. Stafford, a lot of people were rolling their eyes saying, yeah, but it's a 32-year-old Matt Stafford who can't win shit. Okay, he went the Super Bowl. Russell's 32. Russell ain't 38. Russell Wilson, he's still that dude.

And look, I know that there's a lot of people out there who are going to doubt and criticize, and I could be wrong, and they could go 6-11. I just think the coaching quarterback alone bumps them three to four wins. And if that's what they do, they're going to the playoffs. My upside picks for each conference, and I'm Casey Green Bay, obviously. We mentioned the San Francisco, the Jimmy G piece. In the AFC, Raheem Palmer's on here Tuesday, and he's all in on all the Lamar Jackson bets for MVP and Ravens to win the AFC. He just thinks that's the best value. There is a world

where the Ravens are just really good and Lamar is Lamar from three years ago and Bateman becomes that guy and the injury luck turns around. I see the case. Their ceiling to me is probably the highest. Like Lamar was 20-1 to win the MVP where guys like Herbert are

eight to one and Burrows nine to one. This all in FanDuel. There's a world where that's kind of the team that's eight and one after week nine. And we're like, ah, shit, we should have seen this coming. So that's the team I have. Do you have a different team for the AFC or is it Denver or would you say Baltimore? Dolphins intrigue me. I just don't know out of the gate if the Dolphins are going to be like what they're going to be by the end of the year. I think there's a lot of things that have to gel and chemistry and rhythm and all that stuff.

But I think the Dolphins can sneak into the playoffs as well. And the Bills are going to be the winner of that division. And I think you're going to get two AFC West teams. You pick if you want Chargers, if you want Raiders, if you want whatever. I think it's going to be three AFC West teams and the dolphins find their way into the playoffs. I don't have the Ravens and that's probably going to be something I regret. The truth of the matter is they were the most injured team in football and still scratched

out enough wins where they were playing relevant football in week 18 last year. Um, I, I don't have the Ravens at the moment and I just don't know if, and this is, again, I could just regret this in six weeks when they're five and oh, but I don't have the Ravens at the moment. And I just don't know if, and this is, again, I could just regret this in six weeks when they're five and Oh, but I don't know if the league is kind of in on the Greg Roman offense, which we've seen for three years in a row where defensive coordinators are like, yes, Lamar is special,

but there's a way to defend this thing. Right. That's why I have him as a wild card, but I'm wondering if I'm going to regret it. And especially if Bateman is good, because he's really never had a receiver like that. The contract stuff makes me super nervous. Does it?

Or does it inspire? Like, I can't figure it out. I don't like it. Dude. He's such a rare bird. Like he might use that to just, you know,

that's what he did his second year in the league when he, he still was pissed off that he was the 32nd pick and was asked to work out as a receiver at the combine. Like he's that dude. I like stability with my quarterback position. I want a nice, happy quarterback who just is just the anchor of everything. All right, we're gonna take a break. Come back with Million Dollar Picks.

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Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinx. All right. So we're mixing up million dollar picks a tiny bit this year. We're still doing our thing. We're going to come up with a couple we like. Ben Solak's going to come up after you. Going to come up with one or two kind of on the fringe ones. And then at the tail end, I'm going to put everything together. So we're not doing it. And it's really comes down to that video we would put out every day. We had talked about the picks for an hour and then at the tail end, I'm going to put everything together. So we're not doing it. And it's really comes down to that video

we would put out every day. We had talked about the picks for an hour and then you just nodded and made fish humps. Yeah, you're right. And people are like, why doesn't Trigger talk? And it's like, I'm not doing that. I'm going to solo the actual picks part. The big thing for us this year,

we had a lot of success, you and I, with underdog parlays. Yes, we did. I think we hit eight in 17 weeks. For some reason, we're just good at them. We're going to ride those and make that a little bit more of a feature. I already started a pick.

We couldn't even get to Thursday. First, I swore off teases all preseason. Here we are. Not doing teases this year. By Tuesday, I was making a tease. We teased the Rams to eight and a half against the Bills. By the time people hear this, we'll know what happened in that.

Then the Chiefs from minus five and a half down to plus zero and a half against the Bills. So by the time people hear this, we'll know what happened in that. And then the Chiefs from minus five and a half down to plus zero and a half against the Cardinals. We put $250,000 on that. So we already have that in. Hopefully the Rams covered the eight and a half. Chiefs' zona, that line moved frantically. That line moved by three points. All the Sharps were on it Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday no Hopkins we both love this Chiefs team we both picked them to win the Super Bowl this is the kind of game you have to win if you're going to be a Super Bowl team

make the case for the Cardinals what would we be worried about from the Cardinals side? The case for the Cardinals is that when Patrick Mahomes was an unknown talent at White House Station High School in Texas Cliff Kingsbury spotted him, found him, recruited him and got him to Texas Tech Patrick Mahomes was a unknown talent at Whitehouse Station High School in Texas. Cliff Kingsbury spotted him, found him, recruited him, and got him to Texas Tech.

And you want to talk about a big brother in the league, as much as Mahomes and Andy Reeder tight, Cliff was at Mahomes' wedding in Hawaii. These guys are still there. And that Cliff might have the answer to what rattles Mahomes and what can get him going. And hey, unfortunately, he also has the defense that he has, which I'm not sure is rattling anybody. And hey, I'm not so sure JJ's suiting up on Sunday. We'll see come game time. I can't pick the Cardinals in good faith.

I just can't. I think it's the Chiefs. We both think the Cards defense is bad, correct? That's at least my opinion. Do you agree with that? Yeah, they've got great inefficiencies in the defensive backfield. It's really bad. I mean, their guy that they were going to start at corner, now their safeties are good. I'm talking about corners. Antonio Hamilton was this great story that they had and he burned himself cooking.

He's out for several weeks now. They don't have another corner. Jalen Thompson and Bruda Baker are great safeties, but their corners are two guys who are borderline starters, if anything, in the NFL. So my pick for the surprise team of 2022, the team, every year we have the one team that we can't believe made the playoffs. We don't understand it as it's happening. And I laid out a long case for the Carolina Panthers. They're over under six and a half on FanDuel still. Seven and 10, you win the bet. I think somebody weird's getting in and it could be like a nine and eight. It could be an eight and nine. I don't know, but it's going to be somebody. Carolina has a nice one in week one. They're home. They're playing Jacoby Brissett, who I thought was unplayable last year.

I know Cleveland's defense is good. I know Nick Chubb is good, but I also know Carolina's healthy. I just like the spot for them. I think the line should be three. And that is the first one that I'm really staring at because I just think the first three weeks, you got to go with your gut. What teams do you like?

What teams do you don't like? What teams do you think are a little undervalued? And in this case, the Browns with Brissette, I just don't see it. What do you see with them? Well, last year with the Dolphins, he was given a similar opportunity and it didn't happen. He stunk. Stunk. Different offense, different offensive coordinator, different head coach, different situation. And there's something that I kind of like about the Browns this year. And I know this might not be a popular take, but there's 52 other

players on that team. As much as you might be disgusted with Deshaun Watson, they're really good at just about every other position. And Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup. They won games with Case Keenum in the past. They've won games with other guys in the past. I don't know. I don't think the drop-off from Baker to Jacoby Brissett is so monstrous that this team is suddenly going to be way worse than they were last year or the year before. I don't know. Amari Cooper is a really good wide receiver and that offensive line is really good. And they've got two good young corners in Newsom and Ward. And speaking with guys in Cleveland, they don't see this as a lost season. Even with

Deshaun not coming until week 12 or 13, whenever he's coming back, they think they can win with Bursette and everyone is penciling in the, the Panthers. Everyone, literally everyone. Are they really? Why? I mean, I think a lot of people are just like,

there's no way Bursette can go and beat them and beat Baker. Mayfield is going to be suddenly, you know, motivated, but that one, I would stay away from that one. I, you know,

Cleveland comes out there with Chubb and Hunt and Miles Garrett hunting down your quarterback. Like they're going to be in the game. They're not getting blown out on Sunday. I'll tell you that. Brissette, his non-Patriot starts. He's 13 and 22. Last year, he was two and three for the Dolphins. And it felt worse. I got to be honest. We watched him lose like 100 to nothing to the Bills. And I think they picked the Dolphins. It was really rough. I'm probably going to mark down Carolina. I know I get the case.

The Browns have a lot of good guys on D, and I get it, but that's what I'm looking at. One you're looking at, so I really liked Houston this week, and you're going the other way. You like Indianapolis. What's the case for Indianapolis? I think Indianapolis rolls in this game, And I know they might have some question marks at the second wide receiver position, but don't focus on that stuff. Focus on the best interior offensive line. Focus on an upgrade at quarterback with Matt Ryan. Focus on a really improved defense.

They went out and they got Yannick Ngakwe. They went out and they got Stefan Gilmore, who still played well last year, though he's not his old self. And they get a lot of guys healthy back. I think Indianapolis is going to roll in this game and they're going to avenge what happened last year in the final week of the season. I like Indianapolis in this game. Can you avenge a game where Carson Wentz

basically cupped his own feces and threw it around the field, but he's not there anymore? Can you't even, can you even avenge that? He's not there. There's other guys. And like, I don't know if I ever emptied the notebook on that game, but apparently the owner or say like came into it. I mean, he talked to like Frank Reich and Chris Bowers. Like that, that,

that individual will never be quarterback for my team again. Like essentially, I don't know if it was as direct as that, but I think there was a clear mandate from the top. No, no, no, no. This guy is not going to be our quarterback after the Raiders loss and this loss. Matt Ryan's a totally different vibe, and I know his best football might be behind him.

It's a huge upgrade from the inconsistency of Wentz last year. Yeah. I mean, Wentz's big mistake was not playing the COVID card. Trying to say he had long COVID. He was so bad in that Jacksonville game, you almost have to come up with some sort of excuse that's not in football. Something about the Texans scares me

and I don't feel like I can put the Colts in a tease. Texans to me are like, I need to wait and see. Everything might be like... Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's a friskiness to them. There was last year. I don't know if you could roll out the same thing and then bring in another new head coach. I don't know. It just seemed like the

line was too high. The line moved down toward the Texans. Yeah. Pierce looks good. Possible rookie of the year candidate. What was the other one you had? Not the Pat Stoffens. The other one you were excited about. I like the Raiders over the Chargers in week one.

We're going to get to that because we're doing underdog parlay. I like the Packers over the Vikings. Okay, make that case. Everyone's picking the Vikings. When did the Vikings offensive line turn into the 90s Cowboys? I still think that the Packers are going to feast. When was the last time that Aaron Rodgers just falls apart

against anybody? Week one last year, they had to go down to Jacksonville and play the Saints in 100-degree heat. It wasn't ideal. This is the Vikings. And I know that Cousins has had some success against them. I don't know. I feel like Aaron Rodgers is going to be just fine. And the fact that everyone's picking the Vikings in the NFC North this year,

I think Rodgers comes out guns blazing. I like the Packers in this one. Yeah, I think it's a stay away for me because I like the Vikings. The line moved toward the Vikings. There's a lot of Cousins buzz right now. Their offense is amazing. I mean, would you say that's Jefferson?

It's amazing, but there's something that people on your podcast are making. I think I heard it from the great guys on the Fantasy Pod with Hypesets and those guys. This thought that, all right, well, Kevin O'Connell's there, and he had success with Cooper Cupps, so just plug Justin Jefferson in that.

I think you're underestimating how damn good McVay and Stafford are in operating an offense and being able to get... It's not as easy as, oh, well, Kevin O'Connell for a year was the offensive coordinator with Matt Stafford, and so pluck him in. It's not plug and play. It's not as easy as, oh, well, Kevin O'Connell for a year was the offensive coordinator with Matt Stafford. And so, like, it's not plug and play. It's not how it works. Now, Jefferson's great in this offense. And what he said was, I get now why Cooper was so open.

Like, I get it all. But, like, that's not going to happen just like that. I think that the first-year head coach thing with a new defense and still, still like the Vikings defense got run up and down last year and they brought everyone back. And yeah, added to there. So like,

I don't know if the Vikings defense is going to be able to stop Rogers on Sunday. I don't see that. I love their weapons. And I have cousins in all three fantasy leagues that I'm in because I think he's just going to put up a lot of stats. And by the way, he kind of did the last couple of years.

He was one of those guys. He's one of those. Whoa. I didn't realize he had that many fantasy points guys. I think it's a stay away. And I still like this Vikings team, even though if they lose, I will say this though,

they win this game. That will change how I feel about the NFC North. And that's the thing about week one. The tendency is because we haven't had a chance to bet football for a long time or pick football games, the whole thing. And you just want to go in and have a million opinions. First of all, it's super sloppy. The listeners don't know, but we've had to stop and start this podcast. My Wi-Fi went out twice. Your mic battery just died. Week one's sloppy. I tried saying let's go four times before we got it right. You said let's go. No, no. Say go, go. So week one's always sloppy. There's always one crazy game

that we're just like, whoa, what the hell happened with that game? Like the Texans beating the Colts this week, 31 to nothing. We're like, whoa, oh my God. And then the heat factor this weekend, I think is another thing, especially with the games in the South. I don't know, the Miami Pats game, we don't know what the weather's going to be like. What if it gets super humid that day? What if it's a little rainy? We just don't know. Can I add a different wrinkle? So the guys who do the NFL schedule, the king of it is a guy named Howard Katz, but one of the other dudes, a guy named Mike North. And we had him on Good Morning Football the day after the schedule came out. And I was like, what are you most excited about? He's got this devilish grin on his face.

And Mike, who's got this long hair and has a personality in himself is like, week one's a gauntlet. Week one is a gauntlet. And you look at all these road favorites, you look at all these interdivisional battles. Like Mike was fired up because the week one slate, you forget, you know, Rams bills last night. Awesome.

Great matchup. But like, I can't pick, like if I was in a survivor pool right now, like it's not easy picking any of these games. Yeah. And that's by design. Let's start it off with a lot of intrigue and a lot of shocks and teams in uncomfortable situations.

And every one of these games. Well, and they have division games too. We have like five division games, including like that Bengals-Steelers game that I really like the Bengals this year. I'm a little nervous. Yeah, I want to see exactly. Why is that line higher? It's Mr. Trubisky. Why is that line seven and a half?

The Bengals are good. They're just kind of lingering. So it's time. It's underdog parlay time. You make the case because as people know on this podcast, I'm extremely worried about this Patriot season. Peter Schrager looks at it as the opportunity for the perfect zag. Patriots three and a half in Miami. Everybody has just kicked dirt on the season. I've even, I have some dirt on my shoes.

I got to admit. Very, very concerned all the way around about this team. And the Dolphins, on the other hand, the two of PR campaign has been masterful. Masterful. It's been really the opposite of the Olivia Wilde movie. It's just by the time the season started, I fully expected him to throw for 5,000 yards.

He went for $2 as a backup in one of my auctions yesterday. You see a zag here. Explain the zag. Arbitrage is the word. I see the Patriots winning this game outright. I see Bill Belichick being 0-3 against Tua Tunga-Vailoa, having an entire off-season to prepare. In those games that Tua and the Dolphins have won against them, 22 points, 17 points, 19 points. You don't win games that way in the NFL. You go on even more.

I'm concerned about Tua. I don't know if Tua's good, Bill. And I think this will be memed and this will be freezing cold takes when Tua wins the MVP and that's fine. I'm not so certain they in Miami are 100% like Tua's the guy for the long-term future. I think Belichick and that defense- Yeah, why were they going after Deshaun Watson for nine months? Why were they going after Tom Brady? Obviously, they didn't totally believe in him. Two different players that they went for. And I'm not certain that Tua is this no-brainer. All the weapons they had.

You need to accurately get the ball to those weapons. It's great to have Tyreek Hill. You got to get the ball to Tyreek Hill. And Jalen Waddle last year led the league, was a rookie receiver. It was great. There was not many huge, deep splash plays. A lot of that was manufactured. Let's get Jalen Waddle last year led the league, was a rookie receiver. It was great. There was not many huge, deep splash plays. A lot of that was manufactured. Let's get Jalen the ball.

You prepare for that. It could be a little difference. And as for the Patriots, I know it doesn't look pretty in preseason. And I know when you watch them against the Raiders number two defense, and they can't get anything going because of this new zone scheme running attack that they're trying to employ, that does not seem like it's ever been done. And they've got two offensive coordinators, neither one of them necessarily an offensive guru. I get all that. But on offense, they're mostly the same as last year and they were very efficient last year. And I would imagine that would continue. And

obviously losing McDaniels is the wild card, but they didn't lose Belichick. And Belichick's there and he had time to prepare for this. And he's like, did Belichick is the wild card, but they didn't lose Belichick. Belichick's there. He had time to prepare for this. And he's like, did Belichick suddenly say, okay, this is the year I'm going to go three and 14 and it's just not worth it. I'm just going to do the lazy thing and hire two old friends. I think that Belichick's confident that this team can compete. I don't know. The offense will be efficient.

You'll play to Mac Jones' strengths. Tua, I'm not sold on. And the New England pass rush is really good. Like good safety is in a good pass rush. The linebackers who knows fine. If you look at Vegas, the over under for Miami and new England is both eight and a half wins. So Vegas has them as even. Yeah. And they went down there on a Tuesday. Okay. To prepare for a Sunday game. They're not going to show up there and be like, oh my gosh, it's humid. Like they've been there. They're not going to show up there and be like, oh my gosh, it's humid. They've been there. They're practicing.

And I think this Miami dominance over New England is just weird. And I don't think Belichick's going to stand for it. And I love Mike McDaniel. I have them going to the playoffs. I just think week one, I don't think Mike McDaniel's going to embarrass Bill Belichick in a football game.

I just don't see it that way. I test wise, Tua has just never passed it for me. It's okay to say that. People are very sensitive. It's okay to say that. I just don't see it that way. I test wise, Tua has just never passed it for me. It's okay to say that. It's okay to say it. People are very sensitive. It's okay to say that. But he hasn't. I would love to dive

into the why are people so sensitive about this. So sensitive. It's sports. We're supposed to have a, we watch games and then we have opinions on what we watched.

And he could be a lovely. And there's certain people, Tebow is like this too, where there's certain people that transcend this and it becomes like if you're talking about Beyonce or somebody. And he could't seem that accurate to me. And then people can cut these clips of like, oh, he nailed this 50 yarder there. He hit this 20 yarder there. From Instagram. I get it. Hey, when they needed him most a couple of years ago in a huge game, he was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. And last year when he got back and they need, I just, here's what I will say. I've gotten to know McDaniel quite a bit and he's never been the main dude.

He's never even been the offensive coordinator. He's never called really plays, but everywhere he's been, he's gotten the very most out of his quarterback, whether that be in Houston with Matt Shaw, whether it be with Robert Griffin, whether it be with Kirk Cousins, you go through it. Matt Ryan, he was with Jimmy Garoppolo. If Tua can't succeed in Mike McDaniel's offense, which is so quarterback friendly, and make sure these guys maximize their abilities by giving them great looks, then they'll know.

They'll know that this guy isn't the guy. And next year with multiple first round picks, we'll have to... Or maybe they lost the first round pick. I'm not sure with the latest Brady thing. But now we'll know. We'll know that he's not the guy. But for everyone to just be so defensive and be so slam dunk that Tua is the guy, I don't know. We watch a lot of football. I have an open mind. And you ask people around the league, it's okay to question whether

or not he is the guy for the Dolphins long-term. Pats are plus three and a half. They're plus 144 on FanDuel. Plus 144 is what we'll be using for the underdog parlay. Here's the thing. They need to have the lead and then they need to use Romandre and Damian Harris. I actually think Romandre has a chance to be special. Of all the guys in the team, I think him and Barmore are the two guys. And unfortunately, Taequann Thornton, who was out of control in preseason and then got hurt. But I think those have a chance to be two of the best guys in the team. And I feel like that one-two punch, especially if they can get a lead early, and I think they'll be able to control the ball a little bit.

And the case for this is, were they roped it open in a little bit in the preseason? Perhaps. I'm still extremely worried about the Pats. And Patricia said some things, and I know people rolled their eyes at the mere mention of Patricia, but he said some things publicly where he was like, oh, what we were doing in the preseason, because I think they had four different runs using that new run scheme, and they were for negative yards. And it was like, wait, what the hell are we doing at the running game? This is our strength. Why are we tinkering with this? And Patricia's thing is like, I wouldn't pay much

attention to the outcome in preseason. We're just trying to get reps and new looks and put different things on tape. So if you believe that, it means that the preseason means absolutely nothing. And that the training camp, which really good reporters like Mike Giardi and those guys who are there every day. Yeah, Tom Curran, they were critical. And it's a lot easier to be uncritical than critical when you're a beat reporter guy. It's easy. The fans get excited, all that stuff, but they were all critical. Tom and Mike. And like, I think there is something to that. I'm just saying week one, week one, Belichick, a whole month to prepare for Tua. And there's a little value because it should be a three point line. It's three and a half. So plus 144. And we're thinking Raiders teaming them with them. So the Raiders case, it's a team that's built to have a lead

where you have the two awesome pass rushers, right? And if they get the lead and have the weapons, then I kind of like their chances. The Chargers last year had a habit, falling behind. No JC Jackson for this game. Nope. People,

I think the Chargers have a ton of talent. The great roster, when I did my elite, almost elite player rankings, they were in the top three. But their defense last year was bad. I didn't love their coaching last year. I thought it was all over the map.

I didn't like some of their fourth down decisions. And this Raiders team, which has now become the stepchild of that division, it's Chiefs, it's Chargers, and then it's Russell Wilson, and then it's like, oh yeah, the Raiders. It's going to be a home game. Last time we had a Raiders-Chargers game in LA,

it was 50% Raider fans, 25% Charger fans, 25% of the people didn't care. So from that vantage point, right now it's three and a half right now it's three and a half, but it's three and a half with there's no home field advantage. So does that mean the Chargers are six points better than the Raiders? I don't understand that. And I just like the value. We can team the Raiders and Pats together and get them at plus 520, which to me looks super tasty for an underdog parlay. What do you have to add?

Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have given you a lot of good moments in your life, Bill. Oh, the Belichick McDaniels. They've given you a lot of good moments. Hey, Deron Harmon, Jacob Johnson. You want to go right? Patrick Graham at defensive coordinator. This is Patriot Southwest. And if you combine them with Patriots in the Southeast, I think I like this one. How about Mike Lombardi's

son as the offensive coordinator, Mick? We love Mick. He's just all kinds of underdog parlay ties. So many Patriots. Hey, Jared Stidham's in that quarterback room, okay? Stidham's there. There's a lot of Patriots blood in that Vegas building, including the GM, Dave Ziegler. That aside, we do a thing on NFL.com, NFL Network, whatever it is. They pull all the on-air personalities and all the online writers. And I don't know if it's because the NFL Network is based in LA and they get a free tour of the SoFi Stadium or whatever it is. Five of the 25 people pulled chose the Chargers, not to make the Super Bowl, to win the Super Bowl this year. This is a team that's gone to the playoffs one time in the last seven years. I think GM Tom Telesco might have the best roster in football. Pound for pound,

you named it. They've built the roster. Well, and they built it at the right spots. QB, wide receiver, edge rusher, tackles, quarterback. You've got Bosa and Mack coming off the edge. They even added Sebastian Joseph Day, who I love. Naz Adderley is really good. Their third receiver, Josh Palmer, again, fancy. Might be done. Josh Palmer is going to be a problem this year for the league as the third corner. But until I see it, dude, I can't just crown the Chargers.

Not yet. Yeah, I like it. This is a fun one. I like the McDaniels-Belichick. McDaniels-Belichick, one last time. One last ride. Plus 520. Quickly, we'll go with, I'm going to throw this at you and you can talk me out of it. It's plus 596

on FanDuel. Jags Giants. Jags in Washington. Listen, I think Rivera's going to be the first coach fired. I think Carson Wentz, this is his last rodeo, and this will be, he's got five career starts left,

eight, I don't know, but less than 10. The Washington fans hate their owner more than any fan base hates their owner in any sport right now. There's going to be nobody at this game. The people making the most noise are people that are going to be chanting for the guy to sell the team. And I like the narrative of the Jags after this Urban Meyer,

just this absolute dumpster fire. And it's almost like touching a nuclear reactor. And Doug Peterson, who just seems like the greatest coach of all time, just because he's not Urban Meyer and Lawrence is happy Travis Eddie-Anne's back Robinson they got Christian Kirk

who is much maligned for how much they paid but at least he's confident he's still very good yeah Christian Kirk's good they've been drafting high in the draft now

for a couple years and I just think they're better than Washington so and they've got a Super Bowl champion head coach who brings stability like Doug is a good coach I don't think Washington has a home field advantage so if we get And I just think they're better than Washington. And they've got a Super Bowl champion head coach who brings stability.

Doug is a good coach. I don't think Washington has a home field advantage. So if we get plus 120 for them, and then you're going to hate this and talk me out of it, but the Giants going against Tennessee, it's more of a bet against Tennessee. The Giants are getting five and a half. They're almost two to one underdogs.

And to me, I don't see much of a difference between these two teams. I got to be honest, from a talent standpoint, I don't see much of a half. They're almost two to one underdogs. And to me, I don't see much of a difference between these two teams. I got to be honest, from a talent standpoint, I don't see much of a difference. In the trenches, this might be one of the most lopsided matchups. The Tennessee defensive front is really good, even without Harold Landry, with Simmons and those guys coming. And the Giants have two great tackles right now, and Evan Neal and Andrew Thomas, but guard, center guard, I don't know, man. I don't know if there's going to be much stopping anything there. And then I do think Tennessee can simply rely on the Derrick Henry and then what they get out of Tannehill. The Giants week one going into Tennessee

and winning would be a great surprise to me. I would not lean heavily into that, especially- What are you hearing about Dayball? Good on Dayball, but I think the overall feeling on this team is that they're dead broke right now, salary cap wise. So they don't have much flexibility to do anything. And there's a lot of guys from the old regime. And let's see what Daniel Jones has. And let's see what Saquon's got left in the tank. And Shepard and Galladay. And I just, I feel like this is a very big transition year and almost a lame duck year for a lot of people on that roster with a really good young GM and Joe Shane and a promising head coach and Brian D'Abel, but I don't think it happens in 2022.

And I certainly, you know, look last year, Arizona came right into Tennessee and blew the doors off in week one. And everyone was like, what the heck? I don't think that happens again. Vrabel's too good a coach and they're just too good a team. I would be shocked if the Giants won week one in Tennessee. All right. So we'll stick with, at least we know we're doing the McDaniel Belichick, McDaniel's Belichick parlay, which will be plus 520. And maybe we can get Fandle to give that a little booster,

a little jolt that a little booster. A little jolt. A little shocker. Let's go. Yeah. Last one, quickly. Tampa Bay-Dallas. Fun game. I'm not touching it. No idea. Stay away. Oh my God. Lines under three for Tampa. I mean, you and I could play offensive line for the Cowboys right now.

And then Brady, who knows? The Brady thing, we could do six hours of conversation on. Who knows, dude? Who knows? Weird Brady thing, we could do six hours of conversation on. Who knows, dude? Who knows? Weirdest offseason I can remember for a superstar since Jordan retired to play baseball. We had a segment on the show,

and it was like, is Josh Allen the most fascinating figure in football this year? And I'm like, wait, did you guys forget what Tom Brady just had happen in the last five months? Yeah, did you forget the last time he ate Tom Brady buns? And then he goes on this podcast with, I love it. It's like Jim Gray and Larry Fitzgerald and Tom Brady. Like, yes, sign me up. I can't wait for the unscripted impromptu conversations we're going to get. He's like reading from like,

look, you know, you hear what you hear. And then the New York Post has their angles and you go, whatever, we can go into a, it becomes a tabloid thing eventually. But at the very bottom line is like, it wasn't a smooth off season for Brady. So to just assume we're getting the same version, I'd like to see it before we just write that in pen. And what do we, Chris Godwin, like all of a sudden he wasn't at a thing today. I find it hard to believe he might even play in that game. You know who might be good this year? And I know I've been, everyone's been burned by him. Apparently in training camp, Julio has been really good.

You're not asking him to be the one, but if you're banking on Julio... All right, Peter Schrager, the revamped Good Morning Football set. Got Jason McCourty on there now, Jamie Urdahl, you and Kyle, and you're killing it. I'm sure it's much more fun

when there's actual football versus doing games in June trying to figure out stuff to talk about. We're having a blast. We are kicking ass. And we won the Emmy last year for best show. And it was a really cool moment. But I'll tell you this,

some of the stuff we've got in store and what we've been doing has been way better than what we've been doing the last few years. It's like fresh. It's different. And let's go. Let's go, man. Like football's here. I cannot wait. All right. It's like fresh. It's different. And let's go. Let's go, man.

Like football's here. I cannot wait. All right. Good to see you. We'll see you next week. Thanks, brother. Let's go. Let's do it.

All right. Benjamin Solak is here from the Ringer. You can hear him on the Ringer NFL show. You can hear him on the Ringer's Philly special, which launched this week, him and Shokopadia, breaking down the Eagles. And then you can hear him every Thursday. We need your advice. We need your counsel.

You're a secret degenerate gambler. You're not an open one. We have some open degenerate, like my buddy House. You're more stealth. You keep it under the radar, but it'll slip out every once in a while. I want to talk a couple big games that we didn't

talk about with Schrager. Let's start with Bucks-Cowboys, which probably is a stay away. Probably. But I want to talk through because I think Tampa is much better than Dallas and I want to bet on Tampa.

And yet the Brady stuff makes me nervous. What do you see with Bucks-Cowboys? Yeah, I'm very, very tempted by the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys have a good chance to win this game. I think that the Cowboys have been appropriately hammered and doubted across the course of the preseason for the moves that they've made.

But one of the things that I think is an easy trap to fall into into the early weeks of the season is going like, all right, the Cowboys arrow is generally pointing down. We should probably like fade them week one, week last year we actually had this problem where it was bucks cowboys and thursday night football and the arrow was just up for the bucks all off season up up up up up up and they came in as a nine point favorite and then that game was down to the wire cowboys were winning before a game-winning drive by brady what it is for me is i i like cowboys at two and a

half i wish i could get three whatever i like the over though i do like the over at two and a half. I wish I could get three, whatever. I like the over though. I do like the over at 50 and a half to 51. 51 is a pretty key number, especially so if you're still getting underneath that for a total, it's a big one. Prescott is so, so, so, so, so good against blitz heavy teams. He's regularly perennially beaten the blitz over the course of his career. Last season, Prescott 21 touchdowns and four interceptions against the blitz. 8.8 average at the target only sacked on 13% of his Blitz. 8.8 average at the target. Only sacked on 13% of his Blitz dropbacks. Those are ludicrous numbers.

Todd Bowles is a Blitz-heavy defense coordinator. It doesn't matter what your offensive line looks like. It's banged up, right? No Tyron Smith. He's still going to send pressure. And okay, Michael Gallup probably isn't going to play. No Marty Cooper. The passing game won't be as good.

It doesn't matter. With the Bulls coming out quick against the Blitz, that's Dalton Schultz, that's Tony Pollard, that's CeeDee Lamb. That's going to work for the Cowboys. So I expect points in this game. I can still see the Bucs winning it. Bucs taking it by a possession, that's no problem. But I do expect points. I do think it's close.

So you like the over for the points, potentially. We might mess around some overs this year on Million Dollar Picks. The over for this game is 50 and a half. Yep. And like I said, 51 is a pretty key line. I think it's about like 4% of games end up on 51. So if you can get underneath that number, it's nice. And also like jamming the Cowboys into parlays,

there's so many, or excuse me, not parlays, but teasers. There's so many two and a halves sitting on the board, even as we record this on Thursday and the Rams are still sitting there. It feels all like bait. I hate it so much, but I do have teasers that I've shoved the Cowboys into.

Eagles-Lions. I know you've spent some time breaking down the Eagles. A lot of time on the Ringers-Philly special. This feels like a trap game to me. First of all, we have so many home dogs. The underdogs the last 10 years

in week one, I think they're 89 and 67 against the spread that's what our guy john ewing had somewhere on twitter so i'm my tendency is to lean toward the the home dogs and then there's all this eagle super bowl hype and yet you killed these guys last year yep and i I do feel like that matters sometimes in football where it's like, oh, a year ago, we killed these guys. There's like a different level of confidence. I'm probably staying away from this game, but is there anything we should know about this matchup?

Yeah, that game was also a really weird one. Jalen Hurts threw the ball 14 total times. Miles Sanders was out. So the Eagles had like 13 carries to Jordan Howard and Kenny Gainwell, and they both had like two touchdowns apiece, right? The Lions were banged up on both lines, and they couldn't move the football at all. There's reason to believe the Lions are better defensively against rushing quarterbacks than they looked against Justin Fields.

They held him to 16 points. Kyler, when they beat him late in the season to 12 points, Lamar was the 19 point game that the Ravens almost lost. This defense tends to be good structurally against rushing quarterbacks, but the Eagles' offensive line was so dominant that it just didn't matter. They just handed the football off, handed the football off, and the Lions never got out of light boxes. The Lions internally believe. I was there for camp. I talked with their defensive staff.

I'm pulling a Kevin Clark here. The Lions internally believe that their defense is going to be much better this year, especially along the line. I remain skeptical. And so I do think that this is a chance for the Eagles to have an emphatic win in the same formula, in the same approach that they used last year in terms of the running

game. With that said, the best bet for this game is every A.J. Brown over you can find. Because books aren't ready yet for just how AJ Brown centric this passing game is going to be, especially because they still think the Eagles are going to be a very low pass rate team. They're going to be primarily running on early downs, which is still correct. But reports out of training camp are like, man, it's three targets, AJ Brown, then one target of somebody else. Like it is an unbelievable focus hurts and Asia Brown.

I've known each other for a long time. They needed a receiver who can win one-on-ones. The lines were the worst team in the league last year in, in yards, surrendered purse coverage, snap in man coverage. They had Jeffrey Akuta back, but Akuta is not a known commodity.

Uh, AJ Brown's line is 66 and a half receiving yards. That is, uh, off of my understanding of how he's going to be used too low. Uh, and so I think you're not going to see lines in the 60s for A.J. Browns for the rest of the season.

I take it now. So you're thinking like if we were doing a same game parlay for that, you would do Eagles money line, A.J. Brown over 66, and then A.J. Brown will score a touchdown in this game. Something like that. One of the nice things about same games on FanDuel is you can get the alternate receiving lines on these props. Right.

So you can actually take the one that I have out is like AJ Brown 90 plus receiving yards. So basically a hundred yard game plus a touchdown. And then if you take the Eagles in the alternate spread six and a half, that puts you at plus 1010. So that's 10 to one return. Whoa. Yeah. So that's a good one. I'm going to mark that one down.

That's a nice one. The nice thing about same games is kind of, you know, correlating out how a game is going to go, right? You're trying to start to write the script. If Brown is catching

90 yards worth of targets, he's probably getting targeted in the red zone because you have to get targeted a lot to get 90 yards. And if you're getting targeted in the red zone, you have a better chance

to score a touchdown than the books are going to imply. So you might as well throw it all in there and let it snowball on itself. I like it. What is your favorite game of the week?

To bet or in terms of like watching? Bet. Well, no, let's go. Let's go watch first quickly and then we'll do bet. Favorite game of the week to watch is going to be Seahawks Denver.

I can't wait. We talked a little bit about this on the Friday show, but Russ is one of the most interesting players Denver. I can't wait. We talked a little bit about this on the Friday show, but Russ is one of the most interesting players of the last 10 years of football. So much of how we understand the game of quarterbacking now is

seen through the perspective of how Russell Wilson has played, what he has and hasn't done in Seattle. We finally get to see him outside of Seattle and the Seahawks feel like they're chomping at the bit for this game. The way Pete Carroll's talking about like, yeah, we know the guy. We kind of know what he does, know what he doesn't do. There is a, and this game is in Seattle.

There is a way that this becomes like a Seahawks blowout. I have the Seahawks money line at 225. I think that this is going to be a close game and I think Seattle is going to embarrass Russ and I can't wait to see it. This sounds like the perfect piece of a possible underdog parlay. Yeah. I think in terms of live dogs this week,

to me, the Jags are absolutely going to beat Washington. I'm very surprised that they're not favored in that game, but that's small. It's like 120, 125 right now. In terms of actual big fun dogs, you're Seattle Seahawks, man. I don't think it's going to be a pretty game. I don't think it's going to be a pretty game. I don't think it's going to be a fun game, but there's a way that this defense with

a little bit of attitude and this fan base as well in Seattle just bullies Russ for four quarters. And I swear it would be fun to watch if they do. Well, we also have the ultimate Geno Smith fan at the ringer, Stephen Ruiz, who had a take. He did his QB rankings this week

and he put Geno Smith ahead of Tua. I was honest, I was in awe. Like sometimes people have takes or stances and you're just like, I'm in awe. Like I just, that went to a level that I didn't even know human beings could go. And just to put that in print and actually believe it, I was in awe.

Since before he worked at the Ringer and I started working at the Ringer, because we were hired in the same month. Steven's one of my favorite writers in the world. And it's because I am a fence sitter. I sit around and I go, will the Niners cover six and a half against the Bears? Yeah, they're probably better.

But maybe this, maybe that, whatever. And Steven just goes, Gino's better than Tua. And I just wish I had that in my DNA. I wish I could do, I physically can't. It makes my skin crawl, but he's got the genes. He's got the juice. I don't. Well, Seattle-Jacksonville is plus 604.

And I think I might lock that down as my second underdog parlay. I don't see... Schrager was more dubious because he was on before you about the case for Jacksonville. And I just... To me, it's a bet against Washington.

I don't think they have a home field advantage. I don't think Wentz is going to be a starter for more than seven, eight weeks. I think Ron Rivera should be in any first coach fire conversation. I think that fan base hates their team and their owner more than any fan base, maybe in any sport right now. It all starts in week one with Jacksonville just going in there and winning. I don't see the case for Washington. Yeah, Jacksonville to me is very simple. We know that home teams are struggling against the spread in the last few years. We know that home field advantage isn't

what it used to be in terms of how books are typically pricing it. I think home spreads are, I want to say, 46%, 48% over the last three years. You have Washington home field, but FedEx has never been a strong home field advantage. Now, let's wipe the names off the teams. I'm a,

who, who's got a, who's a better quarterback right now? Trevor Lawrence or Carson Wentz. Right. Who's better head coach right now? Doug Peterson or Ron Rivera. I'm going to give you the team.

Yeah. With the better coach and with the better quarterback are underdogs. That's not typically the way this goes. I'm going to buy that every day of the week. And then Brian Robinson, who even people like house, who's pretty skeptical Washington fan at this point. And even he was like, this guy, everyone's going nuts about this guy. And then he gets carjacked. He's out for probably four weeks. And they had

basically buried Antonio Gibson during the preseason. Now it's like, oh, all right, Antonio, good luck. So I don't like anything going with that game. What is your favorite? So your favorite game to bet is going to be, is it also Seattle or is it a different game? No. So you, right. You asked me in terms of favorite game to watch Seattle,

Denver, my favorite game to bet in terms of my biggest position right now is the Jacksonville game. Jacksonville on the money line. I got it like one 40. I think it's one 20 right now. The other thing that's extremely juicy in Jacksonville, it's kind of the same sort of a philosophy about the AJ Brown props are your Christian Kirk props. And this goes back to what

I opened with in terms of like, yeah, the Cowboys are not as good. The Cowboys didn't have a good offseason. So it feels like their arrows pointing down, but we don't want to too much overrate the team once they're in week one. And it goes back to being like, wow, CD Lam's really good. Dak Prescott's really good. Should Christian Kirk have gotten $20 million? No. That was too much money for a player of Christian Kirk's caliber. However, the Jaguars just told you that they think Christian Kirk is worth $20 million.

You know what teams do with receivers worth $20 million? You try to justify them. You chuck that football at them a lot. And especially, it's not like they brought him in to complete the tandem with the good rookie who's cheap. It's Zay Jones and Marvin Jones. There ain't nobody else here. If Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback, which I think he is,

and if the Jags line is solid, let's say good enough to withstand the Washington Pass rush, which I believe it is. It's not an amazing line, but it's vets. It's guys who have been around. They have chemistry. They know each other. Then Lawrence is going to have time to throw and one dude who's really an an actually above average nfl target that's christian kirk so this line opened at 48 and a half right now it's at 55 and a half so you're not getting the value that

you'd like but i still think at 55 and a half that's too shallow in the same way that i don't think you're gonna see aj brown lines in the 60s moving forward i don't think you're gonna see christian kirk lines in the 50s after a few weeks. So to me, Jags money line, Christian Kirk overs, a lot of those make sense. Well, and you think if this was on a neutral field, what would the line be? I mean, like technically pick them, right? In terms of how much home field should be priced.

Right. So why is this game a pick them? Because it's on a neutral field. Yeah, it's FedEx. There's going to be no fan excitement at all. I can't imagine why anyone would go to that game. I'm glad you, I'm glad you like the Jaguars

because I was in on them and the Panthers. Those are two very strange picks. Anything else that you love this week? I love the fact that I get to go after Schrager. So he makes his cases

for the Jaguars and then I just get to shoot with absolutely no rebuttal. He kind of just thought it was a stay away, which I disagree with. The other game that I have a pretty solid position on right now

is Niners Bears. And the reason for that is it's an extremely ugly game. Nobody's excited to watch it. It's not going to get a ton of visibility. But books didn't know how to price Trey Lance rushing props last year, and they still don't know how. Lance currently for FanDuel is over 36.5 rushing yards and plus 210 to score a touchdown.

Those are shallow. He was he had 31 rushing yards in his start against Houston on only eight carries. And then against Arizona, he had 16 carries for 89 yards when he came in the second half against Seattle. Seven carries in one half for 41 yards. He's been over this number two or three times last year. And one of those games wasn't even a start. He just played for half of the game uh the bears defense is now this matt eberflus colts inspired defense which is like oh they're gonna play a lot of zone they're gonna have eyes on the quarterback and typically against

those sorts of defenses we don't like russian quarterbacks because guys are gonna be there to tackle him and then you remember that the bears have no talent on defense number one and number two along the defensive line are really, really weak. So this is going to be a heavy designed running game. There's going to be opportunities for Lance to pull it, not as a scrambler, but just in the design game on options, on the RG3 stuff that Kyle Shanahan is going to dust off and bring out. And so Lance over 36 and a half rushing yards to me is a good bet.

But also, again, if you're looking to build out fun stuff, Lance over 36 and a half rushing yards, any time touchdown score at plus 210, and then the under on 7.5 first quarter points, which is another one that you can take straight up, is good in this game. Shanahan is horrible on the script, tends to be a very bad first quarter play caller.

The Bears were extremely bad first quarter team last year. Two young quarterbacks with high pressure defenses facing them. The Bears' offensive line sucks. The 49ers' pass rush is great. The Bears' pass rush is the strength of their team. The 49ers offensive line isn't the strength of their team. And you're looking at a really sloppy first quarter.

So you have the ability to get low points in that regard. That's plus 897 on FanDuel. And if you just did Niners money line minus 430 with Lance over 36 and a half, Lance plus 210 for a touchdown, that's probably, they don't have the same game parlays up yet, but that 210 for a touchdown. That's probably, they don't have the same game parlays up yet,

but that's probably like in the five to one, six to one range. So you can do that one too. Yeah. The thing about like Lance anytime touchdowns is that because it's plus 210, like you're expecting like about a 30% chance that he scores.

And while that may bear itself out over the course of the season, the fact that he's always going to have the ball in his hands when the Niners are in the red zone makes that so enticing. Quarterback, anytime touchdown scores and first-time touchdown scores

tend to be really positive EV bets over time because they're the guys who are guaranteed to touch the ball within the five, within the 10-yard line. And so, all right, I'm Trey Lance. I haven't played a game in like six years. I'm dropping back. My first read's covered. I'm passeled. I'm scrambled. I don't'm Trey Lance. I haven't played a game in like six years. I'm dropping back. My first read's covered. I'm passeled. I'm scrambled. I don't

want to mess up. I don't want to screw up. It's my first start. I'm just going to tuck and go. I know how to do it. You kind of expect that response inside the red zone. So plus 210 to me was, I understand why it's there because books tend to not price quarterbacks the way I think they should. But to me, that's a juicy line. Might not hit week one, but I'm probably

going to hit it every week because to me, it's underpriced. We talked about how weird the Jimmy G bringing him back and how he's kind of lingering over this season now was that whole decision. I hate it. Well, it seemed like they thought he was out and now he's back. And it just seems like the Lance thing went from,

you're our guy to, yeah, we'll see. And that, you know, it makes it really hard because we both picked the Chiefs and the Packers to make the Super Bowl. But the Niners, to me, are the wildcard team in the NFC

because if Jimmy G is the coach in week 10, or the QB in week 10, it's going to make me think they can make the Super Bowl because I just, I don't think Lance totally has it yet.

So what you're laying out for week one, if they're trying to build his confidence against a bad defense, that would also lead to some of these rushing props, I feel like, right? This is the, Trey, you're our guy, man.

Yeah, oh my God, you had 75 rushing yards and we won by 20 and this is great. And they're just trying to boost his confidence. Right, and the other thing is that for Shanahan as a just in the way he constructs his offense, this thing is always going to be built around the running game, right? When Jimmy's out there and

you know, Jimmy's been the starter for three years and it's early in the season, they're still going to try to establish that they can run the football. What back do we like to run the football with? What schemes do we like to use to run the football? Because from that is where they build their offense. When you go and you look at how like the niners tend to finish really good on offense in the back half of the season right niners after like week six week seven tend to

be really good on offense it's usually because they've narrowed dialed in on what's good in our running game right so i think you're going to see experimentation early remember trey lands had a rushing touchdown in week three against the packers last year they got inside the five yard line they pulled jimmy they put trey in there they, I think it was like counter read or something. And he just screwed it in the byline. What works for us? What do we have? What do we not have?

And then, all right, we're going to build the ship around this and the play action passes off of it. So I think you're going to see a lot of carries. Lance, Elijah Mitchell, Tyron David Price, Debo Sammel. We're going to figure out how we want our running game to work. And then the passing game goes from there. Who screws up a tease out of colts minus seven and a half against houston niners minus six and a half against the bears ravens minus six and a

half against the jets and chiefs minus five and a half against the cardinals which one would you be the most worried about throwing into these or would you throw all four of them in i niners would be the one that worries me. I built this with the first quarter under because I was looking at it with spreads and looking at it with team totals. Right now, the Vegas price has them at 23.5 points for the Niners. I would love to believe that much in San Francisco

and Kyle Shanahan. I don't know. To me, it's going to be rocky to start and they're going to try to level this thing out. So you like first quarter under 7 and a half. Lance plus 36 and a half yards plus 210 TD. Yep. And that's plus 897 on the same day. Plus 897.

Okay. Yeah. The volatility in San Francisco, Chicago is a lot for me. Like, I don't think the Niners lose it. I think their defense is just so good. But if you tell me that this game ends a 9-7 stinker that the Bears win, I wouldn't be shocked. So that's the team that scares me. I feel the same way. I'm not

I'll go this far. I'm just not putting Trey Lance in a tease. I would put him in a same game parlay that I can win a 9-1, but not that. The one that I was shocked by was the Chiefs line that they weren't favored by more. And then all of a sudden

the sharp money came in and now it's like five and a half. So it feels right around. The one I was shocked by though, for me personally, was I'm in on the Bengals this year. Perfectly teasable line, minus six and a half, Mitch Trubisky on the other side. And yet something scares me about the game and I'm just staying away. I just want to, I don't know what I'm getting with the Steelers yet. And I kind of want to see it because Mitch had that one Bears year where he was pretty successful, right? He had a good team around him and a decent coaching staff. And I think they went 11 and five or 12 and four, something like that. So I want to see them for a week. I'm staying away. Yeah. I'm absolutely a stay away

from that Steelers Bengals game. And the reason is because last year, week one, if you remember, the Steelers had the Bills. And that was the game where they just hassled Josh Allen for four quarters. And I think that it was such a bespoke game plan. It was so clearly like, let's run the

we're going to stop the Bills defense that we installed in week one. And then week two, for the rest of the season, we'll figure it out. But we had time. And we knew how to stop the Bills defense that we installed in week one. And then week two, for the rest of the season, we'll figure it out. But like we had time and we knew how to kind of like, you know, address this offense. Yeah. Now you get the Bengals. So it's not like the Bengals

do like anything crazy schematically. But even with the new DC, right? Keith Butler's gone. Terrell Austin's in. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are extremely well prepared for a divisional opponent in week one

who's coming off of a Super Bowl run. And that's going to make that game ugly. And it's also, I don't like that it's in the same division. Same for Colts Texans. I like the Texans, but Texans got sharp money this week. They did. That line was eight, and it got hit. I thought that line probably

should have been like Colts four and a half, five, something like that, so it feels like they're getting free points. On the other hand, I just don't want to put money in the Texans. I'd want to see this one. What, just out of curiosity, I had Carolina as my, I just don't want to put money in the Texans. I'd want to see this one. Just out of curiosity, I had Carolina as my, I can't believe they made the playoffs team. Who would you have taken if the caveat is

their over-under had to be seven or less for the season? The Jaguars. There's a chance the Jaguars win the AFC South. As a proud owner of Jaguars 9-1 to win the AFC South, Trevor Lawrence 7,500-1 MVP, this, I like you,

would like to see it with the Colts before I believe it. I feel like every year the Colts cycle a good quarterback in, or cycle a quarterback in, get a good offense out of it, lose a couple close games they shouldn't, all of a sudden they're just like a 10-win team. And it's like, okay, nice, but Tennessee's down this year and I think that

the Tennessee's down this year and I think Tennessee's defense is going to be good I think they're going to win some close games Rabel's proven that he can like win some slobber knockers so when like the Titans like beat the Bills in week 12 I'll be like yeah sure whatever but I don't think they're going to be a week to week consistent

team I think the delta between Urban Meyer and Doug Peterson, the jump that you get going from one to two, I think we've all been talking about it for three months and we're still underestimating it.

I cannot, like, no team with Trevor Lawrence should be a three-win team. And the fact that Urban dragged them down that far means that just him being out is like a multi-win boost. And then I think Doug is a good coach who gives you some more.

And so to me, like Jaguars as a, as a sneaky division winner and Jaguars is like, you know, hanging over 500 and Trevor Lawrence is hanging around MVP talks. Yeah. That's something that I don't think is going to happen, but it's there.

It's possible. Panthers. Is that, is that Baker hype for the Panthers to make the playoffs? Yeah, it's, it's a lot of stuff. The Jaguars are plus 750 still in the AFC South. For me, with the Panthers,

there's just a lot of good things. They check a lot of the boxes. I made the case on Tuesday's pod about not just... It is an upgrade from all the terrible quarterbacks they had last year to Baker, who's competent. They had the opposite of competent last year. They got McCaffrey back.

It's year three of Matt Ruhle. They have some good dudes on defense, and they play a lot of crappy quarterbacks. That's the other thing, which I always like, which I think the Jags have a similar thing. I like when the schedule, I just know there's like seven stinker quarterbacks on it. I think Carolina had six, but that's one of the recipes

when we look at it and we go, my God, how did that team go 11-6? And you go through the quarterbacks, it's like think Carolina had six, but that's one of the recipes when we look at it and we go, my God, how did that team go 11-6? You go through the quarterbacks, it's like, oh, because they played Jacoby Brissett, they played Davis Mills. That's how the season started last year, right? They started out 3-0. They had Mills, they had the Jets, and somebody, and then they ran into Prescott

and they tried to blitz Dak and bring this segment full circle. Game did not go well, and kind of the holes in the defense got exposed. I think that's tricky for me with the Panthers because I'm a little bit of an Atlanta Falcons believer this season as well. And so there starts to run out of room in that division. I do think all Saints hype is ludicrous.

So like Falcons six and a half is something I've looked at this week as well. Falcons are five and a half underdogs against the Saints. Yeah. But I stayed away because I kind of want to see the Saints for a week. I'm not going to bet again. They're a ceiling basement team to me. I don't know what to expect from them.

The over-under is perfect. It's eight and a half, literally 500. And I could see three wins up, three wins down. Yeah. The bet I like in Falcons-Saints that I've taken is the team total for the Falcons. Over 18 and a half. It's like minus 108, I think, juice-wise. This,

our memory of Marcus Mariota is biased by the fact that he still did not have feeling in his elbow off of a nerve injury when he was trying to throw the football. That was like the Titans Mariota. With the Raiders, he very clearly was like coming back to health and not to overact

the preseason. He looks good in the preseason he looks like a guy who actually has his strength back that plus Kyle Pitts plus Drake London to me is an offense

that should put up 20 points pretty regularly so 18 and a half as a team total for the Falcons felt low to me yeah so House and I were on the phone

this week actually just talking about stuff and we both lost a lot of money on Mariota in that playoff game the Tennessee-Kansas City game. And I think it's colored our perceptions of him

because he was good in that game. And I've just always been scared of him ever since. And I do think he is one of those guys when you're betting against him or your team's playing him and you're like, man, this guy's not bad. He's a little frisky. There'll be like a third and eight. He'll scramble out.

If the offense, if they schedule, I don't know, he's a little frisky. There'll be like a third and eight. He'll scramble out. Like if they, if the offense, if they schedule, I don't know, like the four or five types of things that he's good at, he'll do it. So I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm with you. I just, who are the Falcons receivers? Like, wait, if Drake London doesn't crush it this year, who else do you even have on that team who can catch the ball other than pits? Olamide is theaus Slander.

I'm disappointed. He's not a very good player. He's just got a great name. Yeah, it's Brian Edwards, Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate is the rest of that room, which is kind of classic Arthur Smith build. They're all just enormous, and that's just the whole plan on offense.

But I will say that the reports out of London and training camp are really encouraging, and it seems like he's going to be healthy enough to play in this game. And I also don't think we're yet appreciating

what Kyle Pitts is going to be in year two with the understanding of how to get him the ball and the volume. The depth is worrisome, but I'll

worry more about the depth in week five when they've got injuries. Right now in week one, I like to look at the offense. Three fantasy teams

belong to me, and Kyle Pitts is on all three. Atta boy. I just think, who else do they have? Just keep going to them. All right, Ben Solak, we can hear you on Friday on the Ringer NFL show with Ruiz and Heifetz, and also reacting right after Eagles-Lions

on the Ringer's Philly special with Shiel Kapadia. Good to see you. Thank you. Thanks, Bill. All right, it's time. The million-dollar picks for week one. We are already down $275,000 thanks to Matt Stafford, who looked like Ryan Fitzpatrick tonight.

I don't know what's going on with him. He threw the ball up for grabs a few times. It made me nervous. It hurt my feelings. It also cost me money. We were down $2755K. We're going to try to make that back. The Chiefs, who are an innocent bystander in our Rams Chiefs teams tonight, as the Rams get massacred, they didn't do anything. Well, let's run it back. Let's take the Chiefs again. Let's tease them down to 0.5 points. They're playing in Arizona. The line has moved a bunch. It moved to minus

five and a half. We're going to tease them down to plus 0.5. They're playing in Arizona. The line has moved a bunch of move to minus five and a half. We're going to tease them down to plus 0.5. It looks like Rondell Moore isn't going to play anymore. Or if he plays, he's going to have a strained hamstring. I like that.

He was supposedly going to get featured a lot in the cards offense this week. I just think I'm in on the Chiefs. This is a game they should win about on the Cardinals. Perfect match.

I'm in on one team, out on the other. Love when this happens. We are teasing them and we are teasing the Ravens of Baltimore. They're playing Joe Flacco in the New York Jets. If you had told me 10 years ago, Joe Flacco would still be playing and that he would be on the New York Jets in week one as an underdog, I would say 10 years ago. This sounds great. How can we bet against this? Well, we can. We're going to tease the Ravens down to minus 0.5. Look, Raheem Palmer made this point on the podcast on Tuesday. This might be the year of Lamar. Let's ride it. Are the Ravens going to lose to the Jets? That's a thing that's going to happen? Really? They're going to lose to the Jets? That's a thing that's going to happen?

Really? They're going to lose to the Jets? That's how it's going to start the season? My prediction, Lamar signs a contract on Saturday, Ravens roll over the Jets on Sunday. So we are teasing the Chiefs to plus 0.5, the Ravens to minus 0.5. We're going to put 300K on that teaser to try to win that Rams money back. Thanks, Matthew Stafford. Thanks a lot. Straight up bets. We have two. The Carolina Panthers. This line has moved to plus 1.5 at home against the Cleveland Browns.

I cannot make sense of this. Deshaun Watson is not playing quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. Neither is Baker Mayfield. It is Jacoby Brissett, who was so bad on Miami last season that there was one game I think they lost to Buffalo like 120 to three. I'm delighted, repeat delighted, to bet against Jacoby Brissett with Carolina, a team that I really like. I made the case. I think that they're going to be this year's. Nobody can believe they made the playoffs team. Let's jump on them early.

Panthers plus one and a half. We're putting 200,000 on that. And then the Jaguars, which Ben Solak made a great case for. I couldn't agree more. Washington has no home field advantage. The fans hate the owner. Their best skill position guy, Brian Robinson, our best running back, he's out.

He was a victim of a carjacking. So that's bringing Antonio Gibson back. I don't like anything I've seen about the commanders, including their name. Joe House has nicknamed them the C-words. I think it's apt. I am taking the Jaguars plus two and a half. There's a minus 105 VIG and we're putting 200,000 on that. So 200,000 on the Panthers plus one and a half and the Jaguars plus 2.5. We're also going to do a parlay because Solak talked me into that over for the Bucks-Cowboys game and some points.

The over is 45.5 if you do the alt line on FanDuel. The real over is, I think, 50.5. But you can bring it down to 45.5, minus 220 action. And you can bring the Bucks to plus 3.5, minus 210 action. And you can bring the bucks to plus three and a half minus 210 action. If you parlay that together, plus 102, we're going to put 100K on that. Bucks getting three and a half, the over 46 or higher. So there you go. The Solak same gamer, we're

calling it the FanDuel same game parlay. Here is what Solak suggested for week one. Let's ride the Solak Same Gamer. We're going to put 33K first quarter under 7.5 for the Niners game against the Bears in Chicago, which should be just inept offense all over the place. Trey Lance over 36.5 rushing yards. And Trey Lance will score a touchdown at any point in the game, plus 210. And if you parlay those three together, it's plus 897. So we're putting 33,000 on that. And then last but not

least, the underdog parlay of the week. We're doing two because it's week one. The first one is the Belichick-McDaniels reunion. We're taking the Raiders and the Patriots to win. They're both underdogs. If you combine the two underdog prices, you can get plus 520. There's lots of rumors that FanDuel might boost this for us. Go to FanDuel, go check it out, see if they boosted it. Maybe they'll bring that to like plus 575. The Pats to win in Miami, they're plus three and a half underdogs and the Raiders to win in LA against the Chargers. They are also plus three and a half underdogs. So Raiders and Pats, they both have to win. We're putting 75K on that plus 520. And then the other one, Solak talked me into the Seahawks. So we're teaming them up with the Jags. 75K, the combo Seahawks-Jags because the Seahawks are, you know,

they're five and a half point underdogs to the Broncos. It's almost two to one for their money line. So Seahawks-Jags plus 604. So we're putting 75K on that as well. So the million dollar picks one more time. We're down 275,000 already. Thank you, Matthew Stafford. Thank you, Sean McVay. Thank you, all the Ramskill position guys. And thanks, Josh Allen. 300K, Chiefs, Ravens, teaser. Chiefs to plus 0.5, Ravens to minus 0.5. Straight up, Panthers, plus 1.5. Jaguars, plus 2.5, 200K on both of those. Parlay, Bucks, plus 3.5.

And the over 45.5, there's some action on both. Parlay, plus 102, 100,000. The Solak, same game parlay, 33K on first quarter under seven and a half rushing yards, Niners game. Lance plus 36.5 rushing yards. And Lance will score a touchdown at any point plus 210. That parlay is plus 897 for the Solak, same gamer. And then last but not least, the underdog parlay. We were hot with these last year. We were hot. I think we got eight.

75K on Raiders Pats plus 520. 75K on Seahawks Jags plus 604. Both of them have to win. All those lines you can find on FanDuel. All those bets you can find on FanDuel. Those are the Million Dollar Picks for week one. All right, that'sicks for coming back. Can't wait to see what happens this weekend. And I will see you on Sunday night. Yes, we can. On the wayside.

I'm a Bruce O'Leary.