The Bill Simmons Podcast - Buffalo’s Savior and Ngannou’s Big Moment With Ariel Helwani, and Brady’s Finish Line Plus Million-Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager

Episode Date: January 21, 2022

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Ariel Helwani to discuss the Buffalo Bills’ Round 2 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs (6:18), as well as the upcoming UFC 270 and heavyweight main event between Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane, and more (27:58). Then Bill talks to NFL Network’s Peter Schrager about every Round 2 playoff game, Bill’s playoff gambling manifesto, and more (54:01) before making the Million-Dollar Picks for Round 2 (1:35:39). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ariel Helwani and Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Did the Wizards plus one and a half, had overs for Kuzma and Kyrie and Beal Threes. It was like eight to one. Boom. Did it again. We're going to try to do it again later. A Million Dollar Picks with Peter Schrager. He is the second guest.

We're going to be talking about, could this be it for Tom Brady? And what's going to happen in these games? We like the round two slate a lot. Coming up before Peter. Old friend, Ariel Helwani, who you can hear on Green Room during the big MMA events, as we're going to discuss with him.

We have a huge one coming this week. He's in a whole bunch of places, but he's doing some great stuff for us. Huge fight this week. Finally. Finally, a massive UFC main event. It's happening. And it's happening Saturday night against football. So, great sports night coming up.

We're going to talk about all that. Plus, I'm like a pig in shit with this Westbrook Lakers thing. I mean, right now I'm taping this. It's mid-afternoon Thursday. Who knows what's going to happen? But for it to play out the way it has, huge win. I'm not always right. I have some losses.

I have some wins. Usually when I go all in, I feel like my batting average is good. And this Westbrook trade, I never understood it, never saw why they want to do it. And most important, didn't understand why they didn't understand why they had no outs if this didn't work. Because the odds of this working, whether you want to say I would have put it at like 20%, but 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, whatever. It wasn't 100%. Not that any trade is, but in this case, it definitely was 50-50 at best.

And I would have said 20-80. And the problem is you can't trade him now. So now you know this isn't going to work. The coach said, screw it, and finally benched him in the last four minutes of a game because he's like, if I'm going to get fired while I also have to play Russell Westbrook every crunch time when he's not one of my best five guys, um, screw this. So Vogel said, all right, you guys are hanging me out to dry. You have Kurt Rambis special advisor, who's really his claim to fame is other than he was, I think a pretty valuable role player in the eighties and nineties. I did enjoy his basketball career as a coach. Abominable.

I mean, his Minnesota Timberwolves track record, one of the worst coaches in the 21st century. He might even be number one. I remember, I think it was the 2009-10 season. He played Ryan Gomes more minutes than Kevin Love. That's an actual thing you can look up. This happened. He had them play in the triangle. I mean, he was like a full-fledged disaster. And then I think he was the interim coach for the Knicks for a couple months and he went like 9-19.

He has one of the three worst winning percentages of any coach that has coached over 200 games. And here he is waltzing in, telling Frank Vogel what to do. Frank Vogel's won a title. Frank Vogel has been to two conference finals in a row with Indiana, and he's going to get advice from Kurt Rambis, which by all reports, that's what was happening. You gotta be kidding me. So you have that, you have Magic who torpedoed the organization a couple of years ago, torpedoed them in a press conference that was an impromptu

press conference that lasted so long. People were actually like walking away. It was like, it was 45 minutes long and now he's weighing in on tweets and slamming people. And then you have Rob Polenka, who's the guy who made the Westbrook trade. So he's not going to say anything. And then Jeannie Buss, who, you know, it's unclear how involved she is, but you hear Frank Vogel's getting a lot of pressure. From who? It sounds like it's from Kurt Rambis. What are they doing? Crazy stuff.

I couldn't enjoy it more. This Celtics season has been kind of a half shit show. Not a total shit show, but like a half shit show. And having the Lakers be equally unhappy and probably more unhappy considering they have LeBron, who's one of the three best players in the league of all time and is still one of the best eight or nine players in the league right now. And to put all the chips into the Davis thing

and to basically get one run out of it. One season that had a season that had a four month hiatus. And now it's, you know, we're in year four of LeBron. And which way are we going? And how do they get out of this Westbrook thing? I love it. Oh, it's great. It's great.

Inject it right into my veins. Anyway, let's great. Inject it right into my veins. Anyway, let's talk. Let's talk a little Buffalo bills and UFC and round two playoffs coming up first. All right, Ariel Hawani is here. He is doing a lot of stuff for a lot of different people, including us, The Ringer. He's been doing these Green Room Friday weigh-in stuff and then Saturday right after the UFC cards.

More importantly, and we have a big UFC card coming this weekend, more importantly, your beloved Buffalo Bills. Oh, yes. Who just thrashed my Patriots. I ducked your Green Room invite last week to talk about it. Killed us. Josh Allen, looming. There's a lot of Allen or Mahomes buzz right now.

All of a sudden, you're in the conversation. The line is moving toward Buffalo. The line is now Buffalo plus one half. Everybody believes in the Buffalo Bills. History says this is a dangerous time for the Buffalo Bills. Well, first off, it's great to be back on the show, Bill. I still get compliments from our

first appearance way back when. I was actually wondering if you were ghosting me because, yes, to break the fourth wall, I did reach out to you privately and publicly to invite you into my pre-show just as a friendly sort of get-together. Got no response. I got nothing. No, because I knew what was

going to happen in that game deep down. I didn't want to talk about it. What? I saw you pick the Patriots. Of course, I had to. I had to. Revision is history. No, I had to pick them because they're my team. But yeah, I wasn't feeling awesome about it. And then I see you're promoting the pods,. Revision is history. No, I had to pick them because they're my team. But yeah, I wasn't feeling awesome about it. And then I see you're promoting the pods. Cheap heat this, that.

No mention of the Ringer MMA show, which we are the kings of Spotify Greenroom. No one pulls in the numbers that we're pulling in. The kings of Spotify Greenroom? I didn't realize. I'll say it right now. I'll go up there against Ringer NBA, NFL, Kevin Clark, come and get it.

Rosenberg coming. They can all come and get it. Three Pac. PC, Ariel, NFL, Kevin Clark, come and get it. Rosenberg coming. They can all come and get it. 3Pac, PC, Ariel, Chuck, 3Pac, we're taking over. I mean, just wait until Saturday night after Fran Cingano and Cyril Gunn. And I did an impromptu one last Saturday. I was feeling nervous. You know, it was the Belichick

and Mac Jones stuff and all that, and it didn't go well. You go to me, but can we just talk? I mean, that was Don Larson. That was a perfect game. I don't know if I've ever seen a beatdown like that. That was a smackdown of epic proportions. And yet, I like you, I respect you, but there's a lot of people I don't like

who are Patriots fans. You may know a couple of them and it felt good. It felt really good to finally, after 20 years of crap sandwiches that we had to eat, to finally put that witch to bed. Ding dong, the witch is dead. I hope you know this. It's over.

It felt like a torch passing. I still have faith in Belichick, who is 70 years old. So maybe I'm being a little naive on that front. But it was a good rebuilding year. But when you get to the playoffs, now it comes down to who's the best player in the field, and Josh Allen was by far the best player in the field. You guys weren't talking rebuilding in the beginning of December.

No, we were talking Super Bowl. We won seven straight. We were feeling great. Beat you guys, 40-mile-an-hour wins. Yeah. No, it seemed like everything shifted in that halftime of that Tampa game, the week after the win game,

when it really did seem like, oh my God, the Bills are kind of broken here. And then they found something that second half, and then from that point on, it became the Josh Allen show. And you could feel like a subtle shift. They fought. And I will admit, halftime of that Bucks game, I was like, are they going to make the playoffs? What is happening here, right?

I mean, the Jacksonville game was a real low. That was embarrassing. Colts game, but I was really doubting, and then they fought. Even though they lost that game, I was like, all right, we got something. The X factor that no one is talking about on the national level is Devin Singletary. Singletary coming alive.

Singletary was non-existent three quarters of the season. Him all of a sudden and my favorite player of all time if those out there are just listening Thurman Thomas he's wearing the jersey you can't see it

if you listen to the podcast but he's got the jersey I recognize that I love Thurman and there was a story that him and Thurman and Devin met before the game

last weekend and that just brought chills down my spine Devin all of a sudden has come alive and I think he opens everything up that's the thing we were missing and Singletary I don't know if he's the guy in the future but right now chills down my spine. Devin, all of a sudden, has come alive, and I think he opens everything up.

That's the thing we were missing. And Singletary, I don't know if he's the guy in the future, but right now he's playing better than he has all year. And that, I think, has been the difference since that little skid a month and a half or so ago. I watched it with Kyle, who's producing this. And at some point during that game, we were like, how is Devin Singletary by far the best back in this game? I did not have that on my big card. I thought Harris was a better back than him, but he played way better than Harris in that game. And then the Josh thing, just like putting Josh in shotgun and doing this yin-yang thing where you're like, is he going to run? Is he going to throw? What's he going to do?

And I'm going to drop our guys back up. He's just going to run for 20 yards. And there's no way to solve it, which is going to be the big thing for the Chiefs this weekend. I still can't get over more touchdowns than incompletions. No fourth downs. No punts.

The longest third down they had was third and four, Bill. How do you even explain this? And what about that Boston media? Have they not embarrassed themselves this past week and even last week as well? What did they do this week? I mean, these guys, I don't want to give them credit, but they're still not, you know, they're going on these shows and they're still not

giving Josh credit. They're still not giving the Bills credit. They still don't want to say, I mean, there's that one guy, Michael Hawley, out there who just like, you see that clip? Totally embarrassing himself. Oh, they're not that good. They've only beaten two playoff teams this year. They're not that good. That was one of the

all-time great playoff performance against one of the best defenses in the league. I know the offense isn't great. And I actually think Mac Jones had a great game, by the way.

Like that Micah Hyde interception. Yeah. That's a touchdown 9.5 times out of 10, right? That Micah Hyde interception? Yeah. That was just an

out-of-this-world play. So, I don't know. Mac was the silver lining. Our defense was really kind of secretly slow, and Josh exposed that probably the most out of anybody. Do you believe him? Our linebackers were slow. I do.

I think this is going to be a tall task this weekend, especially with KC moving it to nobody-believes-in-us range. The disrespect from their end, which I think Buffalo is feeling the disrespect against the Patriots. Like, hey, we lost a stupid game in 40 mile an hour wins. Now the Patriots are still the Kings of the AFC East, really?

And you could feel like, you know, they really wanted to slay the dragon. With the Chiefs, the disrespect for them, I think has been interesting. I think the fact that everybody believes in Buffalo this week, come on, the DNA has to come up at some point here. You lost four straight Super Bowls. Nothing?

No DNA at all? This isn't the boy I love losing Super Bowl bills. This isn't your grandfather bills. It's a whole different era. It's the humble and hungry bills led by the great Coach McDermott, Brandon Bean, GM of the year. Now, my opinion, if I could script this, and we've already gone one down, this is what it would be.

It's that Bills team that you're talking about. It's the revenge tour of all revenge tours. It's exercising the demons against New England. Ding dong, the witches are dead. It's exercising the demons of last year's AFC Championship game and that iconic photo of Stefan Diggs

watching the celebration. Chiefs dead. I actually think the Bengals are going to beat the Titans and we'll play them in the AFC championship game at home. But I'll tell you what, with my script, Titans win. We exercise the demons once and for all of the Music City Miracle 1999, just an absolute heartbreaking turn of events. And then we waltz into SoFi. Tommy Boy is waiting for us over there and we'll exercise those demons once and for all. I mean, you can't even write a better script for Bills fans. Not only could you not write a better script,

you couldn't have written a better script for the social media breakout we're going to do of that blueprint. Because I think Tennessee is going to win. Oh, you do? Oh, I do. Oh, yeah. I think Tennessee is better than Cincinnati. I don't believe in Tennessee.

I'm not worried about Tennessee. The Music City Miracle piece is a good one. One of my greatest bets of all time. Who'd you bet on? I had Tennessee. They won. It was wonderful. I had the money line.

I just needed them to win. I think I had them in a tease. It was wonderful. It was fantastic. It was a forward pass. 100% a forward pass. It seemed like a forward pass. Back then, though, in 2000, you had the square picture. Fuzzy.

Now in HD, they're calling that back. They have the great signal. I always thought it went forward by a half yard. People forget Doug Flutie, masked guy, Boston College guy, had a great year. They sat him for the final game of the season.

And Wade Phillips was like, no, no, no, don't worry. Flutie's going to start the playoff game. Rob killed it in a nothing game. And they started Rob. And I always thought that they did Doug dirty and they were penalized for it. Yeah, that was one of the reasons I think I bet on Tennessee because I was familiar with Rob Johnson's work. That was weird.

I just want one. He was like a welterweight. He was like 147 pounds as a quarterback. Yeah. I just want to know what it feels like. Just one, all I will ask for. I will never be those guys. I won't say, give me the dynasty, the repeat. I just want to know what it feels like in February to see my team hoist that trophy. That's all. Just one. So you'll go, right? Are you going to go to these? What are you going to do? You mean like the Super Bowl? Yeah. You'll go to the Superbowl. If they make it. I mean, I'm not a high roller type of guy. I'm very nervous. I'm the type of like, I'm not a, I'm not a sports bar kind of guy. I'm a nervous guy sitting on my little like

corner of the couch and just, you know, praying to the gods. Um, I haven't even allowed myself to think that far, but it would be pretty damn cool. I've gotten my kids into it. They're wearing the Allen and Diggs jerseys. None of them, you know, like my brothers are Cowboys fans. So I was loving that on Sunday. That was tremendous. Everyone around us, giants, jets, all that stuff. I just want one man.

I was eight years old when Norwood missed the field goal. I was at my uncle's house and I remember watching that and thinking, I want these guys to win and then Washington and then Dallas and then Dallas and then everything that happened. Just one. That's all I want. Just one. I think out of all of them, the Giants one was the ridiculous one because you were clearly the best team.

They should have won that game. Yeah, that was, I think if you play that game 10 times, the Buffalo probably wins eight, but it was a good game plan. I never thought Norwood was making the kick. I'll never forget seeing his face as he was walking out. And it was 48. What was it? 48 back then. It was pretty far back then. They, you know, field goal kicking wasn't nearly what it's like now where these guys are banging in the 55 yarders left and right. 48 was like a haul and there was so much pressure and it just, it just had all the makings, but you know,

it just seemed like at some point it was going to happen for that team. Then all of a sudden, Jim Kelly, he got old. It turned into a, Oh my God, this is the perfect guy to bet against. He's kind of like Roethlisberger this year. And then it was done. And then we sent you Bledsoe and it seemed like there was going to be a resurgence. No. And then it just, that was it. You're in the Pats division for 20 years. Okay, this is something I've actually thought about many times. If they beat the Giants,

do you think they actually go on and beat, like, are they two-time champs, three-time champs? Or do you think they lose that game to Washington and lose to the Cowboys? So you're saying how we think of, like, the Montana Niners run and how we think of that Aikman Cowboys, that little five-year run they had. Is there a world where the Bills are like, oh yeah, and those Bills, the three Super Bowls in four years.

They were better than the Mark Rippon Washington team, right? I mean, they were better. I just rewatched the 30 for 30 and it reminded me like there was that coach that talks smack about them and that fired up Washington and all that stuff. And they only had that one, there wasn't even that extra week going into the Giants Super Bowl.

So it was just right after they beat the Raiders. I just feel like the whole narrative about that team, like people, I love when people, even now, the Pats fans, salty Pats fans on Twitter, they're like, oh, you guys lost four in a row, four in a row. I'm like, can we just take a step back? Just making it to four. And I'm not trying to do the consolation prize thing, but just making it to four is pretty

damn great, right? This was an all-time great team. And it's unfortunate they didn't get a ring, but just making it to four was great. I think they at least go back to back and beat Washington. Maybe that Cowboys team was better. But remember, halftime of the fourth Super Bowl, second one against the Cowboys, they were up. They were leading at the half, the only time.

The Washington thing was weird because everything just came together from then that year. Because I remember betting on them. It was like right after I had started betting and Rippon, for whatever reason, was just good that year. And it was like he was became a sports movie and was just able to throw deep and hit people in stride for whatever reason for four straight months. So I thought that team was good, but I thought that was, it certainly

shouldn't have been a blowout by any means. And I don't know. I think sometimes I saw this happen with the Red Sox too. Once that hangover piece steps in, because we had good Red Sox teams after the 86 World Series, but you have that hangover. It takes forever just to disinfect yourself from it. But I think fondly of those Buffalo teams. Football, for the most part, there were only a few really fun teams in the 90s, right?

Like that Eagles defense team was really fun. But you remember people hated them. By the end, they were like, you guys are ruining the Super Bowl. They would kill it up until the AFC Championship and everyone was like, these Super Bowls are boring and it's the same old Bills, same old Bills.

America's sweetheart's turn nightmare and all that stuff. Well, because by the fourth one, it just felt like there's no way they're beating the Cowboys. This is a wrap. Yeah, put them out of their misery. But we were up and Thurman,

you remember he lost his helmet on the sidelines? Yeah. And that was freaking crushing for my guy Thurm. But I feel good. Man, I believe in Josh. I really, like, there's something about this guy that I just believe in him. Did you make your pick yet? Have you made your pick public yet? We're going to do it after this.

Okay. Yeah. You might not be happy because there's some signs. Come on. There's some signs. What signs? What signs. There's some signs. What signs? What signs? There's some, some, some general public kind of mobilized

behind the bill signs that make me nervous. I have a, I have a, I have a big picture Buffalo question for you because like when you talk about the tortured

NFL fan base rankings, it's really the Browns and the Vikings and the bills in like the Vikings and the Bills in like the three-headed finals, right? If we're going to have like a triple threat match in WWE, those would be the three teams going into whatever, the steel cage.

What is the case for the Bills over the Vikings and over the Browns? The Browns haven't won since 64. The Vikings decade by decade just kicked in the balls over and over again. The Bills, you could argue, was all bunched into this one horrific four-year stretch. But for the most part, you were just like any other team the rest of the time. Whereas the Vikings just over and over again

kicks in the balls. So who's the favorite heading into that steel cage and who comes out? With everyone agreeing like, you're right, you're the most tortured. So I would say, I bet people, you know, there's a case to be made, you know, it's better to have loved and lost and never loved before.

Oh, at least you guys made it to the Superbowl those four times. And you got the celebrations and the AFC championship and all that stuff. But I would argue because we were so damn close four straight times, because we tasted it, because we were there on the stage. And then because we were the damn close four straight times, because we tasted it, because we were there on the stage. And then because we were the laughingstocks, like you can make jokes about the Browns and Vikings,

but like, what are those jokes? Oh, you guys didn't make it to the Superbowl. You guys lost in the divisional round. Big deal. Like we were, I mean, we were the- On the precipice. Yes. And we were also the symbol for futility,

which is the weirdest thing because you have to be so good just to make it there. But for whatever reason, it became a verb. Like, oh, you guys are the Buffalo Bills of whatever. The Braves became the Buffalo Bills of MLB when they were getting so close all the time. And so that hurts. That also hurts your heart. People were meaner back then too. It's pre-internet. It was just like athletes we didn't even see as human beings. We were just like shit on everybody and didn't care. When you're a young kid, like I'm 12, 13 and I have to listen

to this and stick with my guy. And like those were special dudes like Thurman, Jim. They were all very likable. Bruce, Daryl Talley, Cornelius Bennett, Andre Reid, Don Beebe. They were all very likable guys and great Hall of Famers. I would argue that we have suffered the most.

And then on top of that, I mean, Music City miracle. And I know everyone has their moments. They have the fumble and all this stuff. But then people forget about this. The Bills were the last team of the 21st century to make the playoffs in the NFL. Everyone else made the playoffs. The Bills were last. 2017, they made the playoffs.

That was their first time in the 21st century. So then we had to sit there for 17 years after Music City. Music City was our last playoff appearance until the Andy Dalton thing in Baltimore that got us in when they were in Miami, that great moment. We had to sit there through, I mean,

you mentioned Bledsoe, J.P. Lossman, E.J. Manuel. J.P. Lossman. I mean, it was a bad run. Nathan Peterman plus and you have the the big kahuna in your division

just destroying everybody oh and that was it twice a year and it's the Patriots who sucked for all those years when the Bills were great in the 90s and it's Belichick

and it's Brady just serving up these crap sandwiches to us and kicking us while we're down I mean it sucked the whole thing sucked

so I would say that we have suffered the most. Then we became a laughingstock. If you recall, Bill's Mafia, we were the butt of the joke. They were jumping through tables just to be relevant. That was their claim to fame, the Zubaz pants and all that. Now it's kind of cool and fun,

but really, from 2017, what were the Bills known for? The crazy fans who jumped through tables. That's not exactly... They were a model. They were the Spurs in the 90s. I'm glad that that's done. The Bills fans were the kids in college who could do the upside

down keg stand for a minute and a half. That was about it. It was like, whoa, did you see what Bob did? Bob did eight vodka shots in a row. You're kind of laughing at them, really. You can't believe how crazy Bob is. Now, and you're kind of laughing at them, really? Like you're a loser? Like you can't believe how crazy Bob is? Now you guys have it around.

All right, so what this situation the Bills are in right now, if they win, you win the whole thing, you win three more games. What is the UFC parallel to this? Oh, you love asking me this. I love the parallels because you're like the only one who can navigate this. Oh, the UFC parallels are very... Okay. It's probably Michael Bisping.

Michael Bisping, he was on the precipice many a time, always stumbled right before he got over the hump. And then at the very, very end of his career. Now, of course, these are younger guys younger guys Josh Hunt but it's like the pain that his fans went through he finally won the belt defended it once and then lost and then retired so I would

say it's not one of these guys like the fight this weekend we'll get into it Cyril Gagne Francis Ngannou Cyril Gagne's the interim champ like this guy's been in the league in the sport three and a half years and he's like this unicorn. His fans haven't really, he doesn't even have a fan base, right?

His fans haven't suffered. Bisping's fans are UK fans. They loved him. They lived and died with him. They supported him. He was embarrassed a couple of times. And then finally, everything came together. He won the belt,

and now he's forever a champion. And if Josh Allen does this, he's just mayor of Buffalo for his entire life? I mean, honestly, I think he's mayor of Buffalo already. Like, look at the way they love Jim Kelly and respect him and Thurman. That's a special fan base, and he really seems to love... I just... It drives me nuts.

Like, people don't give him the credit. They still don't give him the credit. And I think he does something, and everyone's like, oh, yeah, cool. But what about this? What about that? And then think he does something and everyone's like, oh yeah, cool. But what about this? What about that? And then Mahomes does the same thing. And it's like, wow, he's the second coming of,

you know, freaking God knows who. He's so good. And the way he runs and his poise. And let's be honest, the O-line isn't that great. And, you know, no one thought like,

people thought Josh Rosen was going to be better than him. Like no one really saw this coming, right? I mean, like he wasn't the guy. What he has done for that franchise is amazing and it's just so great to finally have that guy. I feel like he is better than Pat Mahomes. I remember he said something after the second Patriots game this year

when they beat them at Foxborough. He's like, who did you think I was? Who did you guys think I was? It reminds me of the KD thing. When someone asks him if he's like, who did you think I was? Who did you guys think I was? It reminds me of the KD thing. When someone asked him about if he's the best, and he's like, man, this guy's got freaking swagger. So I love that man. I wish I could hug him and kiss him.

Never met him. It's all lined up for him. I love the way you lined out, like the Bills exercising all the demons. Because the Pats had that in 2001 where we had the Raiders longtime nemesis. We had to go through the Steelers. Should have lost that game by the way.

Yeah, but we had, it's funny when that, when you have like the the see, it snowed. I feel like if it's good weather, we win that game anyway. We were home. But yeah, but the Raiders starting that off, that was like the team

that in 1976 was like the worst loss of the 70s for football for us. But anyway, all right. Can I ask one last thing? One last thing.

And I've never experienced this. Honestly, is it the same the second, third, fourth time around? Or is that, it's not the same.

You would have been okay with one, right? No, because once you win one, you want to go back, but it's never the same as the first have been okay with one, right? No. Cause once you win one, you want to go back, but it's never the same as the first one. Cause I think I'd be okay. I think I would be okay.

I was as excited for the Atlanta comeback as like any sports moment. Kyle could vouch. We were together. Like it was like, cause at that point, especially I think for the Pats, the flake gate was kind of weirdly the best thing that happened for Pats fans. Cause it really made it

us against them in a lot of ways. So even though we'd won the three, we had to win in 10 plus years. And then the league's like trying to get Brady. So now it's like, all right, now this is,

that's what Massachusetts is built on, right? Us against them. So that was perfect. That was able to rejuvenate a little. But yeah, the first time is always going to be the best. I just want one. Yeah. All right. All right. We're going to talk UFC in one second.

This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache,

you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, so since you joined the Extended Ringer family and we started doing these green rooms,

you do the weigh-ins on Friday and then right after on Saturday. And the green room stuff in general, I think as you'll see over the course of 2022, we're really going to a good place with this stuff. We haven't had the awesome UFC card. We've had good ones, but we haven't had the Mac Daddy one, the one that the super casual fans would be like,

oh, I think I have to get that one on Saturday night. Now we have it. Unfortunately, it's kind of going against football, which I don't really fully appreciate, but thank God for me. I have, I have multiple TVs here in the man cave, but the big storyline,

the, the heavyweight, the whole thing, like, has he gotten there yet? Do you feel like, is he a household name? What else needs to happen?

Okay. Well, first of all, yes, I wish it was next weekend. WWE actually did a really smart thing. Royal Rumble is a huge one. They're doing it Saturday night because they're going up

against no one. Usually it's Sunday, right? It was very smart on their part. I wish UFC was doing that just for eyeballs sake. And yes, I agree that this is the biggest, I think, main event since we joined. By the way, can I just say, and I'm not just saying, I've said this in other places too, the community that we've developed over there, I'm doing a lot. By the way, can I just say, and I'm not just saying, I've said this in other places too,

the community that we've developed over there, like I'm doing a lot of things right now, as you mentioned. There's a word in Yiddish called nachas. Do you know what the word nachas means? It's kind of like joy. It's like this fulfillment of joy in your heart. Nachas is like just pure joy. The joy that I get from that show that we do on Green Room and the people,

like we've got, there's like a group of like 15, 20 people that show up from India, UK, Ireland, every time, no matter what time we do it, whether it's the 1am show after a fight. And it has really become like this. These guys bought me a gift. They sent me a gift. They bought me a piece of land in Scotland and I'm now a lord. They sent me this. It's incredible. The community of people, because of the magic of being able to take callers and interact with people,

it's really like, of all the things I do, I get the most nachas from doing the Green Room shows. And I'm not just saying that because I'm talking to you. I've said this in other places. So I legitimately look forward to it.

And I can't wait for this weekend. And we can also, if people can't get there live right after, we spin them off into the Ringer MMA show. So you can hear the whole podcast right after. Yep, yep. It's great. On Ringer MMA.

So there you go. Amen. Okay. So the heavyweight champion of the UFC right now is Francis Ngannou. And anytime you talk about the heavyweight title, it's special, right? It's Mike Tyson. It's Ali. It's Frazier and, right? It's Mike Tyson. It's Ali. It's Frazier and all that.

This is- Apollo Creed. Yes, it's Rocky. This is the closest by far that the UFC has ever come to Tyson. This man. This man has one punch knockout power. He is straight out of a Marvel comic.

He looks the part. He is chiseled. He is gigantic. He's got the knockout power, like explosive dynamite power. He's got an incredible backstory. He comes from Cameroon, had nothing to his name,

moved to Paris, was sleeping in a parking lot. A guy finds him and is like, hey man, you should be a fighter. Brings him to his gym. He turns into the heavyweight champion, right? Wow. Incredible story. He beats Stipe Miocic in March his gym. He turns into the heavyweight champion, right? Wow. Incredible story.

He beats Stipe Miocic in March of last year, the most decorated heavyweight champion in UFC history, and just completely annihilates him. In a rematch, by the way, of a fight that happened in Boston several years ago where Francis only lost to that point, didn't show up, crumbled under the pressure, comes back and annihilates him. He's the heavyweight champion.

He hasn't fought since, okay? And that's very important to remember. I'm giving you the WWE storyline breakdown, but it's all legit. I hope you appreciate it. Why hasn't he fought since? Great question, Bill. He has been butting heads with your good friend Dana White. Not my good friend.

He's your good friend. He's not my good friend. I always support Massachusetts people, but he's been on this pod twice. That's it. I'm more loyal to your side. I always support Massachusetts people, but he's been on this pod twice. That's it. I'm more loyal to your side. I appreciate that. Thank you. He's been butting heads. Why? He has one fight left

on his contract. Now, this is how it works in the UFC. When you have one fight left on your deal and you're the UFC champion, they're going to try to resign you. Why? They don't want Bret Hart's situation circa 1997 where you show up on WCW Nitro with the you. Why? They don't want Bret Hart's situation circa 1997, where you show up on WCW Nitro with the WWF title. They don't want Medusa's situation where you show up on Nitro and drop the belt in the garbage can, right? They don't want that. So they were trying

to resign Francis. Francis didn't like the deal that they were offering. And essentially, he said, I ain't fighting for this much. So what did they do? They made an interim title fight with Cyril Gann, who's this unbelievable up-and-coming fighter from Paris, France, undefeated, only been training for three years, only been fighting for three years. And they made it in Houston in August against a guy named Derek Lewis. Gann smokes him and now he's the interim champion. Why do I emphasize Paris, France? Because when Francis Ngannou was training in Paris, France, Cyril Gann was one of his training partners.

And Cyril Gann's head coach made Francis into who he is. He's the coach that saw him in the parking lot and said, hey, young man, come with me. Cyril Gann's head coach, Fernand Lopez, is the guy who made Frankenstein. Those two guys, Francis and Fernand Lopez, the coach, they broke up. Francis moved to Las Vegas. He's no longer a part of the team. So it's now the young Lopez, the coach, they broke up. Francis moved to Las Vegas. He's no longer a part of the team. So it's now the young stud,

the pupil, is going up against the guy that he built. Do you understand what I'm trying to say? They were training partners. There's stories of who got the better of who. This never happens in the UFC. There's never divorces like this and then they actually meet for the belt, for the heavyweight title to unify the belts. And so now you have Fernan Lopez, this coach in Paris,

taking this young guy who he says is better than Francis, who I also created, and you have Fernan Lopa as this coach in Paris taking this young guy who he says is better than Francis, who I also created. And you have Francis who's like, hold up, I'm not the same dude

that was back in France back in the day and I'm going to prove to you guys that I'm the man. Okay, that's a great story. That's the story the UFC is selling you right now.

The story that we are selling you as the media and telling you the truth about is that this is the last fight on Francis' contract. So here's what happens. Francis Ngannou and his manager have said, December 31st, 2022, our contract is up. Usually there's a thing called the champion's clause. When you're the champion, it will kick in to keep you around so that you can't walk out and go fight for Bellator.

They're saying our term is up. We signed a five-year deal. We're done regardless of if we're champion or not. If he loses on Saturday, and if he loses some crazy decision, like a split decision, and he gets robbed, he's a free agent. Come Saturday night after this fight, the moment this fight is over, he can walk away and fight for someone else. We've never seen that before. If he wins on Saturday, he said, I'm not fighting for the rest of the year. I'm going to either sit out, you're going to pay me more, or I'm becoming a free agent come December 31st. That's never happened. A champion has never been able to walk out of the UFC with the belt. So do you understand these stakes? This is crazy stuff.

And this is why A. Francis is the underdog, which is rare as champion going into the fight. He's the betting underdog because people think there's a lot going on in his life. There's too much pressure, all this drama with the UFC, blah, blah, blah. Plus he's fighting his former coach, right? So the coach knows how to beat him, you would presume. Plus, he's fighting this young upstart guy, Srogon, who I could assure you the UFC wants to win because they don't want the headache of Francis if he wins

and all the leverage he's going to get. Like, this is straight like Vince himself couldn't write a better script than this. For the heavyweight title, I think the Packers are playing on Saturday. This is infinitely more drama than that game. Well, the more drama than that game. Well, the way you laid that out, it almost makes it seem like he's better off,

I mean, not obviously losing, but getting disqualified so he gets, and then he could immediately make way more money somewhere else. That's the thing. What if he knees him while he's down, which is a DQ? That's an L, and then walks out. Then he's out.

So, anything's a play. He's not going to do that. I was stunned when I looked at the lines. He's plus 122. When was the last time he lost? The last time he lost was... Okay. So he has a loss to Derek Lewis in July of 2018, but it was a nothing fight. Both guys didn't show up.

Not a single punch was thrown. Legitimately, the last time he lost, in my opinion, was the Stipe fight in Boston in 2000... UFC 2020. So it was like January of 2018 was the last time he lost, in my opinion, was the Stipe fight in Boston in 2000, UFC 220. So it was like January of 2018 was the last time he lost. And they, honestly, one of the biggest missteps in UFC is like, look, this is what drives me nuts about my relationship with the UFC. Did I not sell you on that fight? Do you not want to watch that fight right now? Are you not all in? Right? I'm selling you the fight. I'm doing a better job of promoting the product than they are.

However, I will also tell you one of the worst jobs of promotion that they've ever done is what they've done with Francis. This guy is a promoter's dream. He is the closest thing that they've ever had to Mike Tyson. If you can't get this guy on board and make money off this guy, you don't know what you're doing.

How much is that COVID related though? Because I feel like the last two years, they've lost their fastball a little bit with the promotion stuff. You want to know what it's really- What is it? Tell us. They won the race. 2016, they sold for 4.025 billion. And usually when you sell for that much, you don't stick around and still write the ship. It's a new owner that comes in. But who's the guy-

Well, and they got the ESPN contract too, but I thought they had the new ESPN contract that they were going to try to renegotiate or something. I thought they had incentive to try to hold up because they're carrying ESPN+. In fact, the ESPN deal in terms of motivation is a gift and a curse.

It's more money than they've ever gotten, but ESPN bought the exclusive rights to the pay-per-view. So now the UFC is making a fixed amount, regardless of if this sells a single pay-per-view or two million pay-per-views. So there's no carrot for them. So that's why they don't care if Nganou is even fighting for nine months,

because it's not like there's a tremendous amount of money at stake. They're already giving them money. You nailed it. And that's why when Conor was going head-to-head with them and was just basically begging for a fight, they were like, yeah, let's chill until the fans could come back.

Because they didn't need it. ESPN was, as long as they met their X amount of dates, 43 shows, and then the 12 to 13 pay-per-views, they're good. ESPN's paying up front. So in fact, it's more incumbent upon ESPN to promote this as an entity. And that was kind of the thing that I would always be told,

we got to promote this, we got to promote that. And I was like, do you guys tell Woj to promote the Saturday night game? It's not my job to promote. My job is to cover and to talk, but I promote. You want me to put up a link to sell the pay-per-views? That's not my job.

So it's more on them to do that than the UFC at this point. ESPN would tell you you needed to promote the pay-per-views, that's not my job. So it's more on them to do that than the UFC at this point. ESPN would tell you you needed to promote the pay-per-views? That's so weird. It was extremely uncomfortable. Oh, by the way, promote the pay-per-views of the guys that don't like me? That treat me like crap? Again,

I would argue, through my work and the hours upon hours that I spent talking about this crazy sport, that's promotion. There's direct promotion and indirect. But yes, I spent talking about this crazy sport, that's promotion. There's, there's direct promotion and indirect, but yes, I was, I would always have to post the link to the pay-per-view, be told to promote.

Yes. It was very surprising. That's surprising. Well, that also shows you how important it is financially to ESPN because again, I think it's by far carrying their ESPN plus. Now they've added, they have a lot of stuff that they're doing a lot of like small deals that I think it's by far carrying their ESPN+. Now they've added, they have a lot of stuff.

They're doing a lot of like small deals that I think add up like any college that if you went to any college, basically anywhere in basketball, you can go find your team and they've done some cool high school stuff, but it's the big ticket. And it's the only one that they have pay-per-view.

You saw it with WWE too. Peacock, what did they bring in? Like 1.1 or 1.2 million people for peacock that's just our people peacock wouldn't have normally so and and it's the only entity that they have that uh they're actually selling on pay-per-view right like yeah obviously these games are great but that's just the 4.99 or 5.99 to get plus now it's the plus price tag and then pay-per-view by the way they just h the Plus price tag and then pay-per-view. By the way, they just hiked the price up

of the pay-per-views. It's now $75. And that pissed off everyone. By the way, you know in the NBA, I'm an NBA fan, of course, when they upped the TV deal. Do you remember that whole story? And then they upped the salary cap

and then the Warriors were able to get Kevin Durant? Yeah. Remember that story? Oh, yeah. Do you think the purses got upped when they upped the pay-per-view price as well? Do you think the fighters are making more now? Well, they have...

So they remind me of WWE in the 2000s after they extinguished everybody when you don't have competition. When you don't have competition, sometimes that's the worst thing in the world. And if the talent... Like WWE had, they had that nice talent boom, 2010, 11 range with the CM Punk and Daniel Bryan, a lot of those guys and they were able to ride that Roman Reigns comes in Seth Rollins. And all of a sudden they had this

new wave of people, but for the most part, they didn't have any challengers. And I think that's why it's been so interesting to watch with what happened with AEW, where AEW is kind of, they're not beating WWE. And I think it's good that we have two healthy places at this point. But they've kind of zagged in directions that I think were things that people who like the WWE have been frustrated by. Why do you always go after these big monster guys over the pure wrestlers? Why don't you tell a story better? Why don't you sell the up and coming? Why don't you tell a story better? Why don't you sell the up and coming? Why don't you build younger people? All these things. And AEW is like, cool, we'll take

this guy. We'll take that guy. We'll triple down on storytelling. We'll just care about having the most awesome 35-minute match over just trying to fill a giant stadium. And for the first time, WWE, I think, has had to get a little more creative. I don't see that from UFC at all. Who's even challenging them? There's a group called Bellator that's owned by Viacom. They're on Showtime. Yeah, they've been 15, 16 years. Yeah.

It's, I will say, the second half of 2021 was good for them. But again, it's not like, okay, Francis. Francis is the perfect example. Oh, Francis is a free agent. Is he going to go to Bellator? Who's there for him to fight? Here's the sad state of affairs in MMA. There's actually four massive

free agents. And free agency is still, like, we're still in the leather helmet days of this sport. Revenue sharing, all that stuff is non-existent. But there's actually the potential for four massive names that I can assure you you've heard of to become free agents in 2022. Francis Ngannou, Israel Adesanya, Nathan Diaz, and Conor

McGregor. You've heard of those four guys. Conor only has two fights left on his deal. So there's a world where he could be like, I'm fighting these out and I'm going to go test free agency. You know what's the crazy thing about all four of those guys? The biggest money that they can make isn't even in MMA. It's in boxing. It's in these Jake Paul fights. It's like fighting anybody with the last name Paul. That's the crazy... It's in these Jake Paul fights. It's like fighting anybody with the last name Paul. That's the crazy... It's kind of sad that they can't go to another promotion like the WWE AEW

example that you gave, which is perfect. It's actually to go do these one-off boxing matches, which proves that, yes, the Bellators of the world, the PFLs of the world, these guys need to do a little better job of nipping at their heels. So Francis' best job to just

make a crazy amount of money would be fighting Jake Paul, but his left arm is tied to his leg. No, so Francis actually has a great thing. Or he's slightly drugged. He's too big for Jake. That would be crazy. But Tyson Fury and Francis have been going back and forth.

Oh, Tyson's 280 pounds. That actually, yeah, he could handle the size at least a little bit. Could you imagine the spectacle of like, we are going to find out truly once and for all who the baddest man on the planet is. Is it the boxing heavyweight champion of the world or the MMA heavyweight champion of the world, right? That's a great promotion.

I mean, that sells itself. Francis has always wanted to box. Tyson is actually playing this game. He's actually flirting. And you know what actually could help this? Top rank, which is who Tyson fights for, and UFC are both under the ESPN umbrella.

And I could see a scenario where Jimmy Pataro is like, hey, now Bob Arum and Dana White hate each other, but Todd the Buff, who also is his son-in-law and is pretty much running top rank at this point, and Dana are on pretty good terms. Hey, Jimmy Pataro is like, Dana, Todd, let's figure this out. One night only, $120 on ESPN Plus pay-per-view. We're going to see who's the true baddest man on the planet.

I actually see that if Francis wins, I think this could be a part of the negotiation. Or plan B, Francis has an arm tied behind his back fighting Jake Paul and Logan Paul back to back. That would be so... Who's favorite in that? He'd have to be both of them. Honestly, Jake isn't that bad.

Jake isn't as bad. I think he throws... I like his right overhand. Yeah, he's not as bad as people want to convince themselves I mean Francis is just an absolute beast Francis after six drinks versus Jake Paul you'd actually have to see him finish the drinks

I might go with Jake Paul to the body I mean the one thing is Francis is an MMA fighter Jake is a boxer I know people will cringe at that, but he's training truly in boxing. As we've learned over the past year with Woodley and Askren,

it's not the same sport. You could throw, but it's a different kind of boxing when you're an MMA fighter. So if this was normal circumstances with Francis, would he be the underdog, or is this all about the circumstance and the layoff? It's an incredible concoction. I think what's truly making him the underdog is the fact that Gon is really good. He's really young. He's very athletic. He's got better cardio.

Cardio has always been Francis's Achilles heel. And I think the fact that he has the coach who built Francis into who he is and you would think knows his strengths and weaknesses and the fact that they've actually sparred together, a lot of people are thinking like, hey, you know, this is the recipe to beat this guy. Now, I would also say historically, there are two things that come

into play. Number one, we have seen situations historically in MMA where there's a young upstart that comes like a freaking rocket and stumbles when he gets to his first title fight. It happened to Francis against Stipe. It happened to George St. Pierre, famously, against Matt Hughes back in the day. And then they

dust themselves off and they figure it out and then they win the belt. So that could happen here. The other thing that worries me, and I don't know what it is, anytime someone goes head to head against the UFC, they battle with them. They try to play this game of poker. The freaking house always wins. It's amazing. They always win. The UFC always wins. So the blackjack deal are three in the morning. Yes. So I mean, historically the house always wins, but man, I cannot, Francis has

looked so good and looked really good in his last fight against Stipe especially his takedown defense was improved I don't feel comfortable especially at those odds like this is no chump I don't feel comfortable telling you like hey you know he's not going to win because I actually think there's a chance he's going to win

plus 122 you can put him with the Titans I think they're minus 180 you have little Titans you don't with the Titans. I think they're minus $180. You have little Titans. You don't like the Titans, though. You like the Bengals. I like the Titans. Do Francis and the Bills.

Francis and the Bills. Come on. Give me one more fight from 270 that you like. Oh, yes. Okay. That you think we should be focused on. 100%. So the fans are bellyaching about the price hike. And they're actually saying,

oh, the card is a little thin at the bottom. Because fans have gotten a little bit spoiled because it's like 12 straight great fights. And they're right. There's a lot of newcomers. The top two fights on this card are worth $75. The second best fight on the card is the co-main event. It's for the Flyweight title.

It's a trilogy. These two dudes have fought twice in a row. Their last two fights were against each other. So December of 2020, Davidson Figueiredo, flyweight 125, fights Brandon Moreno in Las Vegas and they fight to a draw. It was my second best fight of 2020.

It just lost out to another fight of my fight of the year. In June, they meet again, immediate rematch. This time, Figueiredo, who has had some issues on the scale, comes in with a minute left. He had a window of two hours to weigh in, comes in with one minute left. If he doesn't show up, the fight is canceled and looks completely depleted, looks dehydrated, looks sick. And everyone's like, oh man, he's screwed. What happens? Moreno beats him, submits him via rear naked choke in a great fight and he becomes the first Mexican born UFC champion ever. Historic moment. So they say, all right, we're

running it back. Third straight fight. And now that we're going to Anaheim and it's going to be obviously predominantly fans of Moreno there, close to California, Mexico, all that. He trains out of Tijuana and Figueroa is going to try to right the wrong. Moreno is going to try to defend the belt.

So this is a trilogy fight. Very rare that you get back to back to back. And the first two fights were incredible. Flyweight title 125, which historically has been a belt that has flown under the radar. That's, I mean, those two fights, you get the heaviest guys in the sport

and the lightest dudes in the sport fighting on the same card back to back. Sign me up. My girl Nunez finally lost. Yeah. That came out of nowhere. She was like, you could throw her in any parlay for like three years. She was just money.

Then all of a sudden, boom. I didn't bet on her that fight. I didn't even. Even if the odds were so crazy, there wasn't any reason to. Third biggest upset betting, in UFC history. Juliana Pena. The first one, Holly Holm, Ronda Rousey, which in retrospect, those odds were completely wrong.

GSP, Matt Serra, and then this one tied with Hennon Brown, TJ Dillashaw. I got to tell you, man, that rematch is probably going to happen in the summer. It was kind of, you know, three-pock. Three-pock, PT, that rematch is probably going to happen in the summer. It was kind of, you know, 3Pac, PT, Ariel Chuck, we were always saying like, man, we start these shows and it's like, the UFC really gave us

some crap cards. The stretch that's coming up, Adesanya, Whitaker 2, February 12th, incredible rematch. Izzy, to me, is one of the biggest stars in the sport. Jorge Masvidal, Colby Cummington on March 5th, 305. Those two guys, that's straight out of WWE.

Former friends and roommates fighting each other. April, two title fights. Hopefully, we're going to get Nate Diaz and Dustin Poirier if Diaz resigns. Hopefully, in the summer, we'll get Conor McGregor back. We're going to get the return of Glover Teixeira and Charles Olverga. There's a great stretch of MMA

fights coming up. I am psyched. And they're obviously going to run it back with Peña and Nunez. And Peña talked a lot of crap going into that fight, and everyone laughed at her, and she freaking backed it up. It's so funny with UFC and MMA in general. Every time you think the champ is invincible

and oh my god. Every time. Around fight, somewhere between fight six and fight nine, they're never invincible. It's impossible. But I will also say like some of the best and most popular fighters in UFC history have 10 losses on their record.

Yeah. For some reason in MMA and respect to the fans, you know, a loss isn't viewed as negatively. It's not as detrimental to your career as it is a boxing. You lose one fight in boxing because you're fighting a bunch of cans up to your, I don't know, 25th fight. You lose that one and you're like, oh, you suck. MMA, I mean, Covington and Masvidal are headlining the pay-per-view March 5th. They're both coming off losses and bad losses too to the same guy.

And no one really cares, you know? So I like the fact, and I think it speaks to the respect that the fans have for the sport and the fighters and just how volatile it is. It's four-ounce gloves. It might as well be bare-knuckle. Anything can happen. And so then when you have these heavyweights, if you tell me right now that you've seen this fight and it ends in a knockout, I'm like,

yeah, Francis is knocking him out. And then you say, oh, it ended on the ground. Oh, Cyril's going to submit him. There's a million different things that can happen, and that's the beauty on the ground. Oh, Cyril's going to submit him. There's like a million different things that can happen. And that's the beauty of the sport. Well, one thing you've taught me since we've gotten to know each other is just pay special attention to the weigh-in. There's a reason they're important. Real shit goes down in the weigh-in.

And like that example you cited before of the depleted guy coming in a minute before the deadline. Always a red flag, like major red flag. That's why we have them. I mean, that's why. So for the fight nights, meaning the non-pay-per-views, there's usually 12 to 13 pay-per-views a year. So for the fight nights, the non-pay-per-views, we're doing our pre-shows on Thursday now to give people a little more time because the weigh-ins aren't as newsworthy and important. But for the pay-per-views, we're always doing the green rooms live during the weigh-ins because it's legit news. If Figueredo shows up on Friday afternoon looking like he did in June in Arizona,

bet the house on Brandon Moreno. And I've seen pictures of Figueredo. He looks insane. I don't know how much he weighs. If he comes in first, usually they like to come first and send a message like, hey, I wasn't struggling, and he comes ripped, and on .125, he's good, man. People have forgotten how good he was because of how bad he looked in June. He's plus 144. I'm telling you, man. Listen, Parley,

Figgy, Francis, Buffalo, thank me later. Fight it on Fando. All right, so Green Room, the three-pock will be there live for the weigh-in. And then right after, how fast can you get going

right after the main event on Saturday night? You go right away, right? We literally are. We make it live as they're doing like, here's the winner and new or whatever.

And the second the post-fight interview is over, because I want to hear what they have to say. Sometimes they'll call someone out. They'll retire. So that's newsworthy. The second Rogan is like, thanks over, because I want to hear what they have to say. Sometimes they'll call someone out. They'll retire. So that's newsworthy. The second Rogan is like,

thanks for stopping by, whatever. Congrats. We are alive. And so I love it. All right, let's try to break the record. I feel like this is going to be a special one. By the way, it's an awesome football day too. I might actually, I might have to pop in.

I haven't come in yet. I've been leaving you guys alone. Yeah, you ghosted me. I was scared. I just was fear. It's tough. When you've had a dynasty and it's over, you justed me. I was scared. I just was fear. It's tough. When you've had a dynasty and it's over,

you just feel like everything's crumbling around you. I was a little sad. I talked myself into the cold weather possibility of the scenario and Josh Allen has poor circulation.

He's not going down that road. Yeah, that's when you know like you're really reaching for stuff. But, all right. Great to have you, as always. Don't forget that all the Screen Room stuff that Ariel's doing is going to be available on the Ringer MMA show, and you can hear it in podcast form as well.

Good luck. Great to have you aboard, as always. Yes, we usually put, if you miss anything, we put them up. Our great producer, Troy, puts it up a couple hours later, so everyone wakes up Sunday morning if you missed it, and you can consume it. It'll be right there. Thank you. Appreciate it.

All right, say hi to the boys for me. Go Bills. All right, Peter Schrager is here as always. It's Thursday. We're going to do Million Dollar Picks a little bit later. We did pretty well last week. We're going to try to do even better this week. Let's start with Tampa Bay and the Rams.

Could this be Tom Brady's last game? Throwing it out there. You put it out there last week and I was like, well, no, they're going to beat the Eagles. But it's eerily quiet on that front. And if the Rams beat Tom Brady, does it not seem like it's a possibility that we just like, oh, wait, one of the storylines we didn't even discuss is that a 44-year-old quarterback is kind of done. I mean, this year has been tough for Brady. Yes, they've won games, but like you go through the Antonio Brown situation, you go through all the COVID stuff, you go through all these players that have been injured on this team. Godwin. And Godwin. And now you're talking about, you know, his media empire. I think, uh, the Tom versus time thing a couple of years ago was one thing, but the, the ESPN plus stuff

that he's doing now is very successful too. I wonder, and I get to his personal life, and of course he's always had this great fulfilled life, but his oldest son is going to be going to high school. There's a lot of stuff that no one's kind of considering, and it seems like, oh, Brady's just going to play forever. And I don't know, it would be kind of the anti-every other NFL player on the way out, and that's kind of what Brady's been. And I wouldn't be shocked.

I really wouldn't. And yet I have no intel beyond you and I talking and just throwing it against the wall. Well, he said, he said, even I remember when I was back at ESPN writing about Brady wanted to play two is 45,

which I don't think people fully realized in the early 2010s. It's 44. This year is going to be 45 next year. So he said the breadcrumbs for next year as the last year. But I watched, you know, they beat Philly, obviously. That game was never in doubt. It was interesting to watch him

and the receivers in that game because I was getting some flashbacks to some of the Patriots teams where he just wasn't clicking with certain guys and guys were in the wrong spot. And Paramin, Tyler Johnson, there was a couple of things where Tyler Johnson didn't stop a little bit. Brady's yelling at him and he doesn't have the same team that he had last year, which I think is a really important point to remember. As you look at this Rams game, it's like last year we rode them for four straight rounds. He, he had all these weapons

and it was like, it kind of emerged and evolved into this Brady team this year. The running game is not the same. No Godwin, no Brown. And a lot of like him with his hands on his hips, wondering why the guy wasn't over there. Now you have some offensive line injuries and potentially worse not playing, which, uh, against this Rams D land, I don't even like the Rams that much. I just feel like I don't like the Bucs that much either. And I keep looking at this Rams plus three and then the point of Brady's career. And it's just like, I wouldn't be shocked if they lost to the Rams and then Brady just sent the press release out a week later. Like I'm done. That's it. Thanks for everything. It wouldn't shock me. When Peyton won that Super Bowl for the Broncos, I'd heard a lot of people back channeling. It

wasn't public, but it was like, this is it. You get the feeling that, all right, that was the right one. Roethlisberger did the whole thing. He didn't break the news himself, but that was understood. Brady, I don't think there's ever been a read on him. Everyone thought he was going to go play for the Niners or the Chargers. The last last day he says, you know what, I'm actually going to Tampa. And I think a lot of that had to do with his family on the East Coast. And people didn't factor that in, that this guy is a great family man as well. And I don't know if he's having the best time this year. I think he still wants it and he wants to do it. But you're right. I look at his body language. I look at a lot of the stuff that he's doing off the field, whether it be

the new sunglass company, the crypto stuff. Then you also have the Brady Apparel line, which came out last week. I don't know. It seems like he's got a lot of things going on and we'll see. Wirfs and Jensen, this is Thursday we're doing this and one of them practiced, the other one didn't. The hope is that they'll play, but they're so huge, especially when you're going up against Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd and Vaughn Miller. I don't have a ton of confidence that the Bucs, because they're the defending champions and because it's Brady, are going to be able to manhandle this Rams team. It's a really bad matchup for Tampa Bay. And I'll add in the psychological factor that McVay has faced Bruce Arians the last two

years and beat him last year in a Monday night football game. And then they whooped them this year out in LA. And I don't think like that, that Rams team is scared of big, bad Tom Brady or Bruce Arians, Byron Lefkowitz and Todd Bowles. So if they did lose to the Rams, the reason you would say Brady isn't going to retire is that he would want the hoopla and he wouldn't want to go out on a loss and just sneak out the back door. That part seems that that would be the most authentic piece to now. Now he's fine. He's coming back next year. He's not like a sneak out the back door guy. He likes to leave the breadcrumbs. He did this for the Patriots in the last season. He sold this house. He cleaned out his suite on the last game. There were bread

crumbs. He's a little bit of an entertainer. I just feel like his wife has been trying to get him to leave football for years now. His kids are older. And I know firsthand when your kids get older, you start realizing there's a time clock on how much time you have to spend with your kids before they don't even really want to hang out with you that much. There was an interesting part. I watched all the men in the arenas. So have I. I love them. I think they're great. Yeah. I thought they were good too. I mean, obviously some propaganda, but I learned a lot of stuff about somebody who was in my life for 20 years. One of the most interesting things was about when he got suspended that one year and how he went on vacation with his wife and how he went to a Michigan football game and,

you know, did the game ball thing before the game and just kind of lived a normal life and how important that was to him. He's got, his parents are older, you know, he's got, he's a big family guy. And I, I have no inside info on this other than just reading the tea leaves for the last 20 years. Same, probably talked to some of the same people you have where all of them were like, I don't know, he could, you just never know with him. He could tell you tomorrow, like, yeah, that's it. I'm done. He doesn't really let people in on that kind of decision-making stuff, but I don't think it's been the happiest year. And I think even, I know it sounds stupid, but stuff like Antonio Brown kind of really calling them out. And I don't know,

there was a little bit of a betrayal factor there, but that kind of stuff. Yeah. You're like, I'm 44. Do I want this anymore? Do I need this? Do I want to go through another grind? Do I have to go through the 12 months a year of like my football season ends and two days later, I'm getting up at six o'clock to throw again. At some point, this is what every athlete, every great athlete says. At some point, it's not the games that make them retire. It's the everyday. That was the big thing Dirk Nowitzki and Nash, when they were on this podcast, would say. It's the 365 days. That's why you days. I like on the flying coach podcast. We did this, this off season Kingsbury tells a story about they're in, you know,

Baker's Bay Bahamas, this beautiful resort and everyone's getting messed up for this wedding. And they're all there. And Brady's there in Kingsbury at 7. A.M. Wakes up all hung over just to go for a walk. And Brady's out there with Guerrero doing the band's work. And it's like,

how, like, how did you, and I'm not saying he would stop if he's going to play, he's going to be all in, but I, I don't know. And it's like, how, like, how did you, and I'm not saying he would stop if he's going to play, he's going to be all in, but I, I don't know. I just, if this is a story that might loom in the next couple of weeks that maybe, I mean, no one is talking about it, Bill, you and I might be the only ones in media who have even mentioned it. And I don't think it's crazy. No, it's, it's definitely not crazy. I would, I say it's 50, 50. No, it's definitely not crazy. Would I say it's 50-50? No.

But would I say it's a 33% chance? Priscilla always makes fun when I do the percentages. So I think there's like a one-third chance that they could lose this game and we never see Brady in a football uniform again. Yeah. Because I do think, I don't think he's a hang-on, too-long guy.

I think he really cares about the process that leads up to the games. And that's what a lot of man in the arena was about. It was about the team. It was about the relationships with the players. It was about the preparation day in and day out for how to do this for a living. And at some point it becomes unrealistic to just be wired like that for 365 days. Also like, and I think this goes for LeBron too, the process of being ready to stay at the level that you have to be at is all consuming. And at some point you just don't want it the same way anymore. So I think all of these things tie together. They could beat the Rams this week

and we could be talking about, this is amazing. We could have Brady Rogers or we could have Brady going against San Francisco, his childhood team, all that. There's some great storylines coming up. San Francisco would also have the Jimmy G piece, which would be amazing. It was, you know, him going against the second wife who, who then there was a quick divorce and the team went back with the first wife. But so all storylines in play, the Rams would have to hold up their end of the bargain. I'm not sure I believe in them at all. Here's the Rams argument. When they played him earlier this year, do you know who the leading rusher was? Brady with 14 yards. And it's not like Fournette was hurt. It's just

they couldn't run on that Rams defense and it got out of hand early. The Rams have the exact ingredients on defense that you need to beat Brady. They can pressure him from the outside with Floyd and Von Miller, who Von Miller's had a career resurgence in the last few weeks. Looks great. Seriously, yeah. And then they can stop the run up front

with Aaron Donald and they can drop the seven guys back. And that's what Brady's always had frustration with is when you drop seven guys. All right, now he's got to really be precise and when there's pressure, I don't think it's a great matchup for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

And unless Gronk... Well, it's also't think it's a great matchup for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And unless it's not a great matchup, if you don't completely trust your receivers and as a, as somebody who's had Gronk in his life, you know, since day one. And I've, I feel like I've seen most of the Gronk games until at least he got to Tampa. He's, he's creaky Gronk right now. I don't feel like he's still getting it done, but he's not a hundred percent force of nature Gronk right now. He's still getting it done, though. He's still getting it done, but he's not 100% force of nature Gronk. But that's the Gronk they need. And then Evans, I don't know if he's going to be able

to play four quarters in any game. He doesn't trust the other receivers. So his history with this stuff, if he doesn't trust everybody and there's a pass rush, is dump off, dump off, dump off. Running back outlets. He doesn't really have

the running backs for that. I guess like Gio Bernard would be that guy. But you're like, all right, Gio, right? We're running back outlets. He doesn't really have the running backs for that. I guess like Gio Bernard would be that guy, but you're like, all right, Gio Bernard, you've done nothing all season. Come lead us past the Rams. And I could tell you that, you know, they thought Fournette was going to play. Then around Saturday, it was like, he's not going to play.

And there was genuine concern. And you saw the line moved in Vegas and all this stuff, but they were fine because Keyshawn Vaughn did the job and Bernard did the job. And it's like, if you need to rely on those guys and Le'Veon Bell, then we'll have to do it. But I don't know. Fournette's hurt. I don't get the feeling like this is going to be, hey, last year's playoffs, Fournette, carry us there if we need you. Right. And the Akers piece on the other end, I thought that was the most stunning thing of

round one that out of nowhere, Cam Akers was kind of shifty and looked mostly like Cam Akers, which was this guy that I think anybody who played fantasy was thinking was like a $40 to $45 running back and was this three down back potentially and then was gone. He had a run on that game where Buda Baker got seriously hurt. And we have such gravity for that, that the highlight never ran ever again. And it was, that was one of the most ferocious runs.

Yeah. We'll see. And it never was run on any highlights. Like it was like, it was like deleted from the files. Like, all right. Yeah. Because Baker was actually very seriously injured and thank God he's okay. And he's flying back and everything's all right. But that was like, I could tell you in the Rams building, they were like, all right, Cam Akers just trucked Buda Baker in a way that like, we haven't had that in our locker room all season. Add him and Michelle together. And I feel like here's the dynamics on the coaching side. It's like Raheem Morris was the head coach of the Bucs when he was 32 years old. He took over from Gruden. They were paying him next to nothing. And they're like, you're 32, you're the defensive coordinator. Now go be the head coach.

And you've got the youngest team and you got Josh Freeman. And they rattled off 10 wins with a wild locker room and a wild situation. And then he gets fired, has to do this crazy journey back. And it's like, how fitting that now he's a defensive coordinator of the Rams. And for them to fulfill their dreams, they need to go back into Tampa. And it's McVay who was Gruden's do boy so many years ago as a quality control coaster too. So I think there's a lot of emotions of guys in LA who have worked for Tampa and the fact that McVay and Raheem Morris would love to get a victory against this team as well. And obviously everyone

wants to get wins in the playoffs, but just knowing that, that Rams organization inside and out, they are not the team that's scared of Tom Brady or scared of going up against that defense. And a few things have changed, right? They figured out how to maximize whatever Odell is at this point. I think they did a nice job. Even the little stuff where they have them throw the pass last week. Bill, it's all stuff the browns didn't do it's just like you're basically odell's a plant and they're just pouring water on the plant and they're taking care of it giving them some sunlight here throw this halfback pat or ride receiver pass for us and just like boosting and boosting and boosting him up this is the best he's

looked in three years you nailed it the little stuff early and then the trick play to get him to get the touchdown like maybe that's not the play call there. And you say, Hey, save that for the playoffs. The game was out of hand. No, the effect is Odell is the man again. And we've got Odell and look at Odell and you got to worry about Odell. I believe, and I know both those coaches fairly well, and we've done the flying coach podcast with both them. And I think the Rams, you know, they took the, they get called the dogs off there in the second half. So they still have a whole playbook that they haven't even explored. And I think they're coming off a very good win where they feel very good in that

building right now. Cup got him, uh, the van Jefferson, they got going. I almost said Reynolds cause he's in that van. He's in that Reynolds spot. They throw the tight ends. The running back thing with Akers makes me feel so much better than Michelle. I mean, it's just an unbelievable boon for them. And all their big ticket guys are healthy, except for Whitworth, the left tackle. And I'm assuming he's going to play, right? I mean, how many times has this guy been banged up? You figure he's going to be out there. Well, that was the first play of the game. And you're like, well, then he comes right in.

I think he'll be all right. It's a great spot for the Rams. And it's interesting because that was not a team I was, you know, too huge on. And you think like, all right, week 18, they have a huge lead against the Niners and they can't keep it. Could they have kept it with the Cam Akers we saw last week? Like, maybe. Should they have put that game away where you have your kicker punting from your own end zone down seven with two minutes left

and all you need is a first down and they couldn't get it? Like they really gave that game away and opened the door for the Niners. And the irony of all this is, because I think we both like the Niners, which we'll talk about later, you can have a scenario here where the Niners go to the Rams for the NFC title game. They're rarely seen home away, home three-pack for the

Rams. And then if that happens, it's going to be awful for the Rams fans because the Rams fans are going to sell their tickets to the Niners fans. The Niners fans are going to come in and we're going to have a 70% Niners crowd for the NFC title game in LA. And it's going to be super and we're going to have a 70% Niners crowd for the NFC title game in LA. And it's going to be super weird.

Or we could have Brady against Jimmy G. Or we could have Aaron Rodgers playing against Niners, the team that didn't pick him. Or Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady. Anywhere this goes, it's fun. It is. It is fun. And I think the four coaches are fun. I think the whole LaFleur story where...

Well, Arians hit his player. $50,000 fine. What the hell was that? He went Woody Hayes on his own guy. He did. And everyone laughed. They were like, oh, Bruce. I'm like, what?

Yeah, he whacked him. But you got LaFleur piece where Matt, he gets all the respect from the Packer fans. But 13 wins in a row. Three seasons in a row. three seasons in a row, more wins in his first three years than anybody in NFL history. And if they don't make the Super Bowl, then you start wondering, well, how do you get over the hump? And then McVay, obviously, and then you go into Arians, who's trying to get another one. And then I think Kyle

Shanahan's fascinating in all this. Yeah. Well, let's take a break. I have some new gambling rules, a couple of stats for you. And I really want to dive in these games because I love the slate this week. I actually really like all the games. And there's one game you kind of made me rethink in the right way that I'm glad you did that. But we'll take a break, then we'll hit all these. All right. Round two since 2011. 31 home teams won outright. Nine road teams won.

We care about the winning outright. We saw last week, the six teams that won, they also covered. I'm less concerned about the spread when we get to the playoffs because for the most part, you just want to pick the team that you think is going to win.

You don't want to, like for instance, the Niners are the biggest is going to win. You don't want to, like for instance, the Niners are the biggest underdog this week. You can't take them unless you actually think they can win the game, which I think we do.

So, I have a couple new gambling rules for you. I heard the one with House. I like the rookie quarterback one with House. That was good. Yeah, the rookie playoff could be on the road. The quarterback version

in the postseason. Quarterback version. Stay away. The quarterback version in the postseason. Quarterback version, stay away. The Mike Martz corollary. It's a possible new rule. I'm just going to lay this out. So the Super Bowl, Pats-Rams, Super Bowl 36, one of the great days of my life.

One of the reasons the Pats won that game was because Belichick's game plan was basically, Mike Martz wants to be considered a genius. I'm going to use that against him. I'm going to tell him, please run. You're not going to be able to throw on us. We're in a blitz. We're going to eat.

Basically, the run is the key. Just slow, methodical drives. I don't think you want to do that. Basically, the same game plan the Celtics had against the Lakers in Game 7 in 2010 where they just double-teamed Kobe. Kobe, you're going to want to be the hero of this game. We're going to use that against you.

Finally, in the fourth quarter, his teammates convinced him to give up the ball and that stuff. The Mike Martz corollary. Brian Dayball in Buffalo. The Mike Martz corollary. Bewareball, Buffalo. The Mike Martz corollary, beware of any team with an offensive coordinator or head coach trying to prove his genius in a playoff game.

The Bills Chiefs, Brian Dayball, trying to get jobs right now. This feels like the classic, I'm going to show you guys how smart I am in this KC game. And I'm a little concerned about it, thinking about the Bills, because to me, it's like, just put Josh in shotgun, you know, the recipe just, but is he going to like get too innovative in this game? What do you think? Too cute, too much. So it's amazing you say that because Brian's

week was win Saturday night, accolades through the roof. Sunday morning, the Dolphins brass flew up to Buffalo, sat with Steven Ross, sat with Chris Greer, interviewed for them, also spoke with the Bears, the Giants names, whoever their GM is. Brian Dayball has been attached to Joe Shane. He's been attached to Adam Peters. And then you have this whole deal that his storyline is cool that it's, you know, Saban was his guy the last couple of years before he goes to Buffalo. And before that it was Belichick for years, but he took the stand where I am not going to be like the rest of them who are just Belichick and Saban. I'm going to go out on my own. So he goes with McDermott who's from the Andy Reed tree and he gets to carve his own path. And it's a perfect, perfect storyline. Last week, it was the perfect game plan. It was everything. He was awesome.

He was awesome. To your point. Against a team that was exposed as having ridiculously slow linebackers and was just kind of a fraud of a playoff team by Patriots. How do you top that? How do you top that performance? How do you come out this week and say,

yeah, that was one masterpiece, but I'm not a one-hit wonder. Here's the next one. And then there's the questions that everyone has with this hiring process when you get into this. All right. So he studied his ass off all week. They go and they beat the Patriots. Now you're interviewing for three different head coaching jobs in the Sunday night and you got to grind. Yeah. How focused are you? Yeah. These are all real things. These are all real things. These are all real things.

Mike Robinson was on Good Morning Football with us, the former Seahawks running back. And he said he was watching Kellen Moore on Sunday in the game. Great example. That was one of the reasons I came up with that rule. Kellen Moore, what are you doing? And Mike's point was like, CeeDee Lamb had one touch. There's a million things you can do.

And like, what was that game plan? And was Kellen Moore trying to make a statement? Was Kellen Moore just, that stuff starts lurking into your brain. We've seen it so many times before. I said that to Sal on Sunday. I was like,

how the fuck are you not using CD lamb? The way the Niners use Debo, where they're just like, you have to get 10 touches in this game, whether it's reverses, whether we're putting you in the back the Niners use Debo, where they're just like, you have to get 10 touches in this game, whether it's reverses, whether we're putting you in the backfield, bubble screens, whatever. You just have to touch the ball. CeeDee Lamb

didn't have a catch in the fourth quarter. Aikman called them out this week. Aikman never says anything. He fucking destroyed them for it. Aikman goes on the ticket and it's like, all these offensive coordinators are so worried about scheme, scheme, scheme. Michael Irvin would have had 10 catches in that game. Like, you find a way.

Like, we have Michael Irvin. You've got to get in the ball. CeeDee Lamb, invisible. The one time his name was called, it was because he was lined up and he didn't set up all right. And they had the penalty. Then you get the hook and ladder play. And it was at the end of the game. And it really meant nothing.

Dayball is awesome. So you like my Marth's corollary? It's a great corollary. It's a good one. Who knows? We'll see if it's borne out. Hey, there's probably 25 different examples of it. I have them on top of my head. And there's coaches like Kyle Shanahan, who when he was in Atlanta, he was just like, I'm not interviewing for jobs until afterwards. If I sacrifice it, fine.

But a lot of these coaches are like, this is my shot. They're worried their job's going to go. Yeah. This is my shot. Two more. This should already be in the manifesto, but we're a bad special teams. The Packers have the worst special teams ever for a one seed.

They were 32nd in DVOA for special teams and 22nd in defense. But Aaron Schatz did this on Football Outsiders a few weeks ago. Because I've been crushing their special teams on air and Packers fans, they don't like hearing that. But go on, I want to hear. So he said the 06 Colts had the worst special teams

DVOA of any champ. It was minus 3.6. So I looked that up. They 25th overall so they were still like not in the bottom 7 the 09 Saints were 28 DVO the 2020 Buccaneers were 26 and 2010

Packers were 26 they're all below like around minus 2% around there the Packers are minus 5.2%. They're like a convincing worst in the league. And I don't know, man. I think that stuff matters. I felt like it didn't come to bear with Zerline

in that Cowboys game. He actually made his kicks. But when you're talking about a high line at home, you're talking about bad weather, and you're talking about actual bad special teams're talking about like an actual bad special teams. I think that has to factor in. Like to me, I think this line should be three.

I think the Niners are every bit as good as the Packers. And when you think like most of the season, they haven't had all their guys. Now they do some of the wins they've had being able to pull off that Rams game, being able to pull off, you know, what seemed to be a collapse in progress last week. they held on. I just think they're really good. I think the line should be three. It's six and a half or it's five and a half right now. But you figure like the special teams are going to cost Green Bay at least three points in this game. Like that's their history this whole season. So I'm adding that as a corollary. Any additional thoughts? You are what you are, and with very rare exceptions.

The Colts running game, when they made their run in 2006 that Aaron is talking about their special teams, they were like 32nd in the league, and then Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Adai were just awesome in the playoffs. The Giants with Bradshaw and Jacobs, very rarely do you get a team

that's terrible all season, and then the playoffs just suddenly is magical. Terrible all season at something, yeah, and then it comes together. The Bears Sunday night game, the Packers had kickoff go out of bounds. They had a punt return kick returned back by Jakeem Grant. They had all these things happen and go wrong and they win. And it's like, and Crosby missed field goals. And it's like, all right, well, they won. And all season long. And LaFleur was asked about it a bunch and he defended that

special teams coordinator to the end. It was like, he's our guy. We're going to be fine. But I agree with you. I think it's a one-score game and there will be a mistake by the Packers special teams. And I thought there was a mistake by the Cowboys. If I have to see Fossil and McCarthy arguing or Fossil trying to explain something to McCarthy

on the sideline one more time next year, it was the fake punt. They got it. And then they were like, let's leave our guys out here and let's get too cute. What are you doing? And like that, there's always something with the Cowboys special teams.

There was in that game and I could see it happening with the Packers too. I really can. I'm with you on that. Last one for new gambling rules. I don't even know if I believe in this one, but beware of the, believes in us one seed. Titans. Yeah, so we'll test it out

because we both like the Titans and we're going to talk with them when we do the picks. But weird lack of respect for them. The line has moved from two and a half to three and a half. I think you could argue it should be higher, especially because the Bengals are banged up. Tennessee beat Buffalo. They beat Kansas City.

They beat the Rams. They beat the Niners. And they beat the Colts twice and knocked them out of the playoffs. Derrick Henry's back. He's going to play. Derrick Henry's really good. I mean, you could be... Kyle, turn the camera.

Let's go, Kyle. Come on. You could make a case with Derrick Henry that if he's healthy, if his foot, I'm assuming it's healthy, and by all accounts in the practice stuff, like he's actually healthy. You could make a case. Not a bad thing to miss a few weeks.

You know, I think about like the bubble season with the NBA in 2020, where they had the big break, right? Who is the biggest advantage? Who is that the biggest advantage for? LeBron James, who's older, who was able to work out, get his body ready and get his body ready for 10 weeks of just being able to go all out. I think with Henry, you get all that time. He's you save him all the hits comes back. It's going to have the eye of the tiger. He's going to be, it's going to be like pulling the car that when you get the car back from the mechanic and everything is like, oh, I aligned the tires for you.

Um, I fix, I fix your exhaust pipe, clean the oil or you got great new thing. Oil, like go take that thing on the highway, man. So could that be Derek Henry? Um, I'm going to go. Yes. And I'm going to go to your, your rule here. 2017 was probably like weeks 15. I used to do like Fox sidelines and it would always be like the third or fourth crew.

So we had a giant Eagles game and it was the week after Wentz got hurt and everyone left that Eagles bandwagon or whatever. And they played well and they beat the Giants. And I interviewed Foles afterwards and I had met Foles in years prior and I always liked him. Good dude. And he was so, how do I even say this? So confident that this team was fine. They go to be the one seed and everyone took Atlanta in the divisional round. Everybody, Julio Jones and the Eagles won. And then the next week it's everyone took the Vikings because Case Keenum had this great play at a digs and they finally beat this, the, the,

the Saints and the Eagles won. And then we get to the Superbowl and everyone's picking the pages. And like the Eagles, they were the one seed all along. Yeah. They were the one seed. And I don't think it's often that the one seed is as disrespected

and dismissed as this Titans team, which we don't talk about. There's bad advance metrics with them. And they lost to the... Any sort of rating, any sort of... Lost to the Texans, lost to the Jets. They have some bad losses. Two of them are

defensible though. They, they lost one game where they basically had no skill position players at all. But I even look at that Pats game that ended up

being a blowout, but they kept putting the ball on the ground. They're running for like 250 yards of the Pats. They're running all over us. They just weren't holding

on the ball because they had all backups. I, I look at that Titans team though, and Frabel knows exactly what they are and I just think they're a really well coached team

they're tough as shit and up front 98 Jeffrey Simmons he didn't make the AFC Pro Bowl team but he wasn't all pro I don't think he's even a household name I don't even think people know him I think he might be the second best defensive tackle in the sport behind Aaron Donald and he's going to put on a show this week

I think the Titans roll in this game. And I know the Bengals story is awesome. And Burrow has put on a three-week performance, unlike maybe any other quarterback of that age has done in the last three weeks. It's amazing. But I just think they're a tough team, well-coached. And since A.J. Brown's been in the lineup, they don't lose many games. I think the numbers are 11-2, something like...

A.J. Brown is the real deal. He's as good as any of these number ones when you need him to be. So they pass our blue chipper test because they have a few of them. Yeah, Simmons, Brown, Henry. There's a resilience to them. They've pulled off these close games.

They remind me a little of the 0-3, 0-4 Pats range. Those teams that just like any three-point game, they were winning. There's a real skill to that where there's 10 minutes left and it's a close game and you just, you trust the team that over and over again has figured a way to pull these things out. They don't make mistakes.

Tannehill had 14 picks this year, which seemed high, but if you look at like his ratings, his advanced metric stuff, he was actually like rated pretty favorably. He was missing Julio Jones, what, half the season? Brown missed a few games. He lost Henry halfway through the year.

They were hodgepodging it together with all these different running backs. And they kept winning the whole time. They had the big COVID thing week one. They got killed by the Cards. I just think I love the spot they're in where people are like, eh, the Titans, eh. KC Buffalo, the winner of that's going to the Super Bowl. And the Titans are like, cool. All right, we're right here.

We'll be fine. Everybody's got to come through us. And we've beaten the two teams that we'll have to play next round. FYI. And their coach is not one for like, oh, okay. Wow. We just got surprised. They're ready. They're always ready. That team. And I go back two years when they went into new England and into Baltimore, and then they gave the chiefs everything the chiefs could have an arrowhead. Like they almost made a run with a lot worse team.

Um, the Henry injury does concern me. It's, it's a foot injury. It's not like this is a toenail or a, or a pinky, you know, it's, it's a legit injury. It's not like this is a toenail or a pinky. It's a legit injury. But Foreman was good enough where I'm like, all right, so hit him with Foreman if you have to, and then hit him with Henry and the goal line, whatever it is. I like Tennessee. And I think we're in the minority. I think a lot of people are rolling with Cincinnati right now. Yeah, but that's great for us. That couldn't make me happier. They said he had a contact practice yesterday, and the people who've been at the practice say he

looks fine, he's moving. They need 15 carries for him. They more need the shadow of him in the game. And if you come in and knock some people out, they've also learned that Foreman is a decent replacement guy, right? Initially, remember, it was like, oh, Jeremy McNichols is going to get some, and it's like,

he's a third down back. That's not going to work. You need somebody who can at least hit the line with some gusto. I thought Foreman down the stretch was pretty good. Definitely would have taken him out of the Patriots, but I love that people are discounting Tennessee, so that's great. There's a couple other rules.

With Titans-Bengals, rule number 12, beware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend's victory like it just won the Super Bowl. They're going to multiple bars with the game balls. It was like, we won a playoff game. We did it. It's like, all right, was that your Super Bowl?

It made me a little nervous if I'm a Bengals backer. We had CJ Uzama on our show on Good Morning Football. He was good. I saw a clip from that. Wasn't he great? CJ, come to the ringer. We'll give you a podcast. Give you a podcast right now.

Hilarious, great dude. We've had him on a bunch and it's cool for us to have a guy that we've had on when the Bengals were terrible and be like, he's fun. And then now they're good. He said that Zach Taylor went to that bar in Cincinnati

and they actually carded him at the door, which I don't know if it's true or not, but they're saying that that's actually happened. That's a good story. That's funny. Yeah, that's good. Yeah. CJ was good. So rule number 17, there's plenty of time to bait against any QB or coach. So if you're not a believer in Tennessee and if you think like, come on, Ryan Tannehill, he's going to turn into a pumpkin at some point. Great. You have two more rounds after this. You don't have to like go all the way in on Tennessee this round. Packers-Niners has rule

number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. Also has severely discount anything that happened the first five to six weeks of the regular season. Week three? Yeah. I'm throwing that out. Debo Samuel was not playing running back. Yeah, throwing that out. And then rule number 16,

take one last look at the quarterbacks, which is the big hesitation with Packers Niners as you're taking Aaron Rodgers against Jimmy G. Well, guess who beat Aaron Rodgers two years ago? James G. With eight passes. The other one would be Tennessee and Cincinnati. I would rather have Burrow

than Tannehill. Right. The Tannehill thing, so this is interesting. I don't think this has been mentioned anywhere. And I just know it because Zach told us, I think on Flying Coach, but if not, whatever. Zach's father-in-law is Mike Sherman, the old Packers coach. Oh, yeah. And Mike Sherman was Ryan Tannehill's college coach. When Mike Sherman was looking for a GA, Zach Taylor was the GA and Tannehill was the quarterback. And then when Zach Taylor's first big job in the NFL was with the Dolphins as an offensive assistant and Tannehill was the quarterback.

So I don't know who gives that the advantage there, but Zach Taylor does know the inside and outs on exactly what Tannehill can do and can't do. And if the film doesn't tell the story, there's certainly some other extra knowledge that might give Cincinnati an advantage. A couple rules for the Chiefs' bills. Beware of the looked a little too good the previous round team. The bills are just impulsating. That's rule number one in the

manifesto. We see this over and over again. Round one, somebody looks incredible. Big jerk circle all week. Was that the greatest quarterback game you've ever seen in the playoffs? He did it to us twice. Twice in four weeks. That's why, like,

if you're going to take the Bills, like, I'm not going to talk you out of it. No. Because if you're taking the Bills, you're basically saying, I'm all in on Josh Allen. This guy is going to be... And I said that to Sal on Sunday.

Like, I think if you're talking him versus Mahomes, how physical and how big he is and how durable he is, he, like, it's now an argument and you know, some people would say my homes is more talented, but I still think to me, it's an argument because I know Alan's going to hold up physically.

I don't know my homes will hold up physically. He runs like a running back. He like waits for blocks. He punishes people when he slid away from high tower. That was like a running back move. It was this little like subtle. I said it was the greatest, greatest quarterback performance ever in a running back move. It was this little like nuanced, subtle. I said it was the greatest quarterback performance ever in a playoff game.

And I got a lot of like, hey, well, Phil Sims went 22-25. That was in Pasadena, Florida. Like this was in zero degree weather, just throwing bombs. Greatest is a little strong. What is? Look, you could say like one of the best individual offensive performances by a QB, but I just don't think the stakes were there because the Patriots were good, you know? I look at the history of 20 years

of the Patriots and all that stuff. Doesn't the greatest QB performance have to be Brady against Atlanta? Yeah, it was pretty amazing. 28-3, completing all the two points? Like, I don't know. That has to be one, but there's been some two points. I don't know. That has to be one. But there's been some other ones.

I don't want people to get too excited historically about a game that had a bunch of people who aren't going to be on the Pats next year because they're probably going to retire. Like Hightower, McCourty. I get it. And you got Jamie Collins out there in big moments. And it's like, okay.

But I don't know. I would look at it and say, yeah. He was an A+. I'm not arguing with you. As good as you could possibly play in a football game. Josh Allen did it. Yeah. That was, yeah. Probably the highest ceiling QB performance for four quarters, whatever, but that the stakes weren't there. That's different. I think when there's a magnitude of what's going on and like you, you do that in the Superbowl against like an awesome team. Not that Atlanta was awesome four years ago, but you know what I mean.

Another rule, beware of the everybody believes in us team. The Bills, this line has moved from minus two and a half to minus one and a half. It's now disrespectful to the Chiefs. The Chiefs are home. They have real pedigree. They won the Super Bowl two years ago. They've been in the mix every year.

They're healthy. And it's just like it's going to be cold and airhead the whole thing. And people are like, yep, Bills. Lock them down. Bills are going to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have to know this, right? A little bit. Oh, yeah. I think this is the first time they've ever been dismissed since Mahomes has been the starter. And they are being dismissed.

Rule number nine is severely discounted. I think that happened in the first five or six weeks of the regular season. I'm throwing that first Chiefs-Bills game out. I think the Chiefs are different now. The McKinnon thing, which we talked about last week, really helped them.

It seems like Mahomes is being a little more careful. The defense is way better. And then for Bucks-Rams, so you got the beware of the looked a little too good the previous round team. I think that's the Rams. Yeah, that's fair. But as you said,

I do feel like they held back in the second half. They called the dogs off. I know that team and how they play. The play calling was very vanilla in the second half, and that's by design. It was weird because the game was over when Kyler threw the two-yard pick-six. It was a wrap.

We were done. We were going home. The Cardinals were like, oh my God, that's our guy. He completely, totally, 100% fell apart. That's our guy. Don't they have to decide on his contract this summer? Yes.

What do you do with that? He's set to make $40 million. You can't give him $40 million. Not after that. He's been hurt two years in a row? That becomes like the Russell Westbrook contract, potentially. I was texting with another executive on a different team, and I said, what does Kyler get on the open market

if you were to trade him? Just out of curiosity. And the answer I got back was three first round picks. Wow. I would do that. If I'm Arizona, I'm doing that. The alternative is you pay him $40 million because someone will. I think he's that dynamic of a player. But here's the thing. Everyone's like, I heard House say it and it's like, you can't just do Kyler on an island. You got to crush Kingsbury too. But I wonder, all it, and it's like, you can't just do Kyler on an island. You got to crush Kingsbury too.

But I wonder, all right, now what if you were to give Kyler a different offensive coordinator? Is there an offense that's better for Kyler? I don't know. I disagree. I thought he was terrified in that game. I thought he was. He was not there for the moment. Second half, he was at least calmer.

First half, I thought every decision he made was awful. And every throw he made, for the most part, was awful. He was just, he was so bad. He was an F minus. And I could not in good conscience give him $40 million after that. A year. He looked like a rookie.

And I think what you see, and I've said it from doing the sidelines against the Colts when they were there on Saturday night and the same things were happening. It's like- The demeanor thing. Yeah. It's just, I don't know how to even, there is no galvanizing. Everyone get around me right now. Let's go. Right. I'm the leader. Give me the car keys. I got this. Yeah. He just has this kind of glazed look on his face. I thought it was alarming. The reason I was so bummed out is I really like watching him. I know. And I had him on my fantasy team two years ago. It was so much fun. And the guy's like electric.

And then you watch a game like that. And it's just like, this is the playoffs. I don't think any game plan- Why is your energy like this? I know. And I don't know if any game plan was going to work the way that he played that night. It was alarming how bad he was. How about the play when he had two wide open guys when he scrambled right 50 yards downfield and somehow threw it between them?

He was just bad. So that's why I worry a little with the Rams because you're in a playoff game against somebody who's just completely self-combusting like that. And I'm not even positive how to evaluate with you. But I think the acres thing and the pass rush are the two things that seem sustainable going against Tampa. And then Stafford didn't fuck up in that game, which we needed to kind of see in a playoff game.

And that's the storyline the next day. And I was on Good Morning Football and I forget one of my co-hosts was like, yeah, but what did he do? I'm like, he didn't hurt him. No, he had some good throws. I thought he played well. He went, I think, 13 of 17, looked great in the pass to cup, and was slinging it. So for whatever we do with all these, the ghosts and the monkeys on the back and all that stuff, can we at least say that he's won a playoff game and let's at least see what happens from here on out instead of pounding him for not being a big game quarterback.

If they had lost that game, it was, it was like, it was world war three with the Rams. Everyone would be picking apart at like a carcass and they kicked the crap out of the Cardinals. And now it's like, all right,

but what next? Like, I don't know. We'll see. Million dollar picks coming up next. All right. Million dollar picks round two. Last week we won $709,000. Pretty good. We are awesome. We're up for the year 373. For the playoffs, counting last year and included this year, we are up $5.366 million. That's in five rounds of the playoffs.

That's pretty good, Peter Schrager. Pretty awesome, dude. We like this week. Really like it. We'll start with the Titans-Bengals. As we said, Tennessee has some good wins. They have Derrick Henry coming back. They have a little nobody believes in us buzz. The Bengals, they won their first playoff game

in 31 years, feeling great. I'm assuming Vrabel will do the Belichick thing where he just is like, Jamar Chase, you're not beating us. Good luck with Higgins and Boyd. The Bengals offensive line, I can't say it looked awesome last week. Felt like the Raiders were coming on. I thought the Raiders could have stolen that game. And if you want to like litigate all the things that happened where the extra four points from the whistle touchdown play, um, Derek Carr snap spiking the ball,

Carr spiking it with 35 seconds left, like rule number one of what not to do in a two minute drill and all that stuff. The Raiders were hanging around. The Bengals, in some ways, were pretty lucky to win. I didn't think they played that well in the second half.

And I just feel like that was the game they should have won. I believe in this Titans team. The half point scares me because we're in back to our cover range with that half point.

We could have Titans 24-14, Titans 27-17, whatever, and Burrow driving them down and Chase scores with 12 seconds left and all of a sudden we have them covered. Other than that, I'm all in on the Titans in this game. What say you?

I am all in on the Titans as well. I think they are playoff tested. They are finally healthy. You got Julio and AJ and now Derek Henry in the background coming off a week's rest. And I also look at Cincinnati. Trey Hendrickson is their best pass rusher.

Might not be available. Larry O, the big boy inside. Not available. Well, Larry O is definitely out. He's out. Hendrickson might... Hendrickson concussion last week? Yeah.

So, head injury? What was it? I don't know exactly what the nature of it is. It was a little mysterious, right? Yeah. So, he was gone. He didn't even play in the second half of that game. No, and they missed him. And

to your point, Bengals, awesome story. Burrow is fantastic, and he's going to be a star in this league. But the Titans are looking at the Super Bowl right now, and I feel like they've been primed and readied, and they've been disrespected by a lot of people not being treated like a true number one seed because of those losses to the

Jets and the Texans that they've had this year. I think the Titans win. I think they roll. The only thing that worries me other than the half point is just, I'm just trying to think of narratives coming out of this game if the Bengals won. And it would be because here comes Joe Burrow.

He has now arrived. Joe Burrow, playoff 10 in Mahomes. Yeah, it's now a three-person race. Here we go. I'm acknowledging it. I think they're a three-person race. Here we go. I'm acknowledging it. I think they're a year away from that. That's fair. I don't think this team is good enough yet.

But I think they're a year away. I do think the Little Lake Buffalo, what, two years ago? Yeah. When they laid the groundwork a little bit. And then they had the crappy playoff game. And we're like, eh, what was that? Were they listed Houston? I was a Houston on the Josh Allen lateral. Yeah. And I was like, eh, what was that? But then it was like, oh, good season guys. There's something here. And they built Cincinnati is beyond that. They're kind of between where Josh Allen year one on that

plan and Josh Allen last year. There's somewhere between that, but I don't think they're where Buffalo was last year, like on the cusp of making the Super Bowl. I don't see it. I also, you know, they've been, they were actually pretty good last week. Yannick Ngakwe and Crosby did not sack Burrow a bunch of times, but they've been given, he's been sacked the most out of any quarterback in the league. And Jeffrey Simmons, Autry, Bud Dupree, like Landry, the Titans, they're not a household team. Like the Colts had seven pro bowlers voted in. I think the Titans had like a couple. Yeah, they're not a household team. The Colts had seven Pro Bowlers voted in. I think the Titans had a couple. They're coming. That defensive front is really good.

They're really fun to watch. I think they're going to make a statement. Nashville. Nashville. Let's go. Nashville, red hot right now. Nashville in the house of carbs, whereas they're breaking down the food from the playoff cities.

The Nashville hot chicken. The hot chicken. Is right up there with all the other ones. All right, so we're going to mark down Titans minus three and a half. We're also going to mark down, we have Tennessee to win is minus 180. Okay.

That we can get a little ambitious with potentially. Okay, next game. My favorite of the four, Packers, Niners. I don't know why I like this game more than Buffalo KC, which I know is going to be awesome, but I just, I don't know what it is, but I just really believe in this Niners team. And I believed in it for a while.

I bet on them at 17 to one a while ago. And anytime I've ever had real success with playoffs and gambling, it's like identify the team heading into the playoffs that you think you want to roll with and kind of back them. And over and over again, it feels like they've been disrespected considering how much talent they have,

which I think they have an incredible amount of talent. They're just built to beat this green Bay team. I don't know if they will, but if, if I'm green Bay, I'm like, shit, this is the team we have to play.

The weather's going to be freezing cold. Now, we've seen and we learned last week in the Buffalo game, if there's no crazy wind chill, the cold doesn't matter that much. But this is just I just feel like San Francisco's built for games like this. Rodgers will get to 20. He always does.

I was looking at some stats with him. He's played in 23 playoff games. How many times do you think he scored 20 plus points in a playoff game out of those 23? I'd assume more than half. 23. Oh, okay. 23 for 23 for scoring 20 plus in a playoff game.

So the Niners know, all right, we got to get to like 24, 27. Do you have confidence that they can score that many points? Yeah. You know, they've beaten them the last three times they've played in the playoffs, all with Rodgers at quarterback.

Kaepernick twice, and of course two years ago when Raheem Mostert ran for about 600 yards. Yeah. I look at it as every team in the league knows that you have to stop Debo Samuel. Every team knows it.

And yet Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan draw this thing up and they find a way. And what is so cool about this Niners offense is that George Kittle's had nine catches the past four weeks total. Yeah. What happened to him? He's blocking his ass off. He hasn't said a peep. And he's like, all right, if that's what I got to do, let's do it.

Jawan Jennings comes out of nowhere. Blocking guys. Ayuk. Blocking guys. Yuscek. Eli Mitchell. These guys are all in. And then the offensive line, I think, is the best in the sport when you got Alex Mack and

Trent Williams just pushing dudes. So they come in as the bullies and as the alphas. And it's like, here's this Northern California team going into Lambeau. But I think it immediately is just neutralized because you look at the way they play football and it's like, no, no, we're the more physical team. And I look at those Packers, the linebackers, Devondre Campbell has been amazing this season, but they better be in for 60 minutes in cold weather of bringing down Debo and Kittle and Juszczyk and getting hit by Trent Williams. There's a lot there. And my last point with this one is the Packers get all these guys back. And it's the Darius Smith and it's David Bakhtiari and Jairz was out there week 18 when

he's going to play again. And maybe Billy Turner goes and it's like, well, they're fully healthy. I don't know. They haven't played all year. And here comes this Niners team that is like this fully like revved up engine. And I am saying this to you on Thursday. Bosa and Warner are not missing this game. Those guys are dogs. They are ready to go. So like, I don't know if those guys coming back is suddenly like, oh, wait, Randall Cobb's back after six weeks. All right, let's write it off. Rogers is amazing. Devontae Adams is amazing. This team has played really good football, but I don't know if they're up for this kind of fight. Well, you also had a San Francisco defense that I thought did an awesome job against Dallas last week. Awesome. They had seven points through three quarters. Whether Kellen Moore took C.D. Lamb out or the Niners did, somebody took C.D. Lamb out because I'm terrified of C.D. Lamb and he did nothing in that game. They had their secondary, which we know is healthy

because we didn't see Josh Norman except for on special teams. So good sign that he wasn't out there. They have a pass rush. They're able to move with four. I just think they're a Super Bowl team. And I felt last week, whoever won that Dallas-San Francisco game was making the Super Bowl. I still feel that way, and I still think the Niners can do this.

Rodgers, since he won the Super Bowl, he's 7-8 in playoff games. Lost to Eli Manning twice. Lost to Kaepernick twice. Now, one of those Eli losses was before the Super Bowl. So I guess he lost to Eli once, lost to Kaepernick twice. Lost, now, one of those Eli losses was before the Super Bowl. So I guess he lost Eli once, lost to Kaepernick twice. Carson Palmer. Yep.

Matt Ryan. Russ Wilson. Brady. Jimmy G. So you hear this stuff about like, oh, you don't want to go against Rodgers. It's like, well, if you went against Rodgers the last decade, you were eight and seven. I think this Packers team that he has is on the higher end of the typical Rodgers playoff team, but certainly not invincible. And again,

we talked about it earlier. Their defense was 22nd in DVOA this year. Now they have guys coming back. You just laid out that case. Special teams, 32nd. They're not going to be able to fix that in time. It's just a team that feels like a regular season team to me and not a 12 degree weather. I'm trying to go to the Superbowl team. And if they do it, it'll be because Rogers is great, but either way, it's going to be a close game. We're getting all these points. And I think the only reason we're getting is because of Jimmy G because we know he's going to throw one terrible pass to the Packers. I know that I think the only reason we're getting is because of Jimmy G. Because we know he's going to throw one terrible pass to the Packers.

I know that. I'm factoring that in. I'm also factoring in, I know the Packers special team is going to fuck up at least once. So to me, that cancels out. And,

you know, Jimmy G didn't practice or was limited in practice because of a shoulder issue. Like, he's good. He can grip the ball. Like,

they don't rely on him to do a ton anyway. And remember that playoff game, he threw the ball eight times and they still won by that many things. The first time they played this season, Debo Samuel did not play running back. It was a totally different offense. That was week three. And even so, the Niners had him and it took Rodgers pulling a rabbit out of his hat and he does so often. The reason I'm scared to pick the Niners outright is simply that Rodgers is on a mission. This might be the last dance. And this guy is so freaking good that at the end of the day, he always will be in that

game. And at some point, because all these playoff losses, it's not because of him. Their defense is giving in the last three playoff losses to the 49ers. I want to say his, his defense has given up an average of 35 points per game. When they lose these playoff games, not because Rogers plays bad. He plays well. He never lays an egg. Right.

It's just that the defense can't do enough for him. Or there's some crazy play call decision, like a third and nine, or there's an onside kick from the Seahawks that the wrong guy goes for it. And Bostic is botching it up. Like it's freakish stuff. It's not because he hasn't played well. So that's the thing. When you just go 20 plus every single playoff game, that speaks for itself. So the Niners know we have to get to at least 24 to win this. I am afraid of Aaron Rodgers. I don't want anyone to think otherwise. But I don't think he's the reason you can't take the better team

in a playoff game on the road when you're getting five and a half. Right now it's five and a half. It was six all week. Do you see Devontae Adams just absolutely abusing that defensive backfield though? Don't you see Adams going 128

for three touchdowns and being like, ah, shit. Because that could happen too. So why didn't it happen last week with CeeDee Lamb? I don't know if Lamb is in the. So why didn't it happen last week with CeeDee Lamb? I don't know if Lamb is in the same conversation. I mean, Adams is better than CeeDee Lamb, but I don't know. I was really impressed by the Niners last week.

It was a game that they easily could have lost. I think it was a game that I didn't even feel like they played that unbelievable. They left a lot of points on the table in the first half. They were conservative. 13-0, and you're like, ah. How is it only 13? I'll give you another pro-Niners take on this one.

So, Kyle Shanahan, if he had lost that game, it's like, this guy can't coach in big games or whatever. The Green Bay coaching staff, LeFleur worked for Kyle Shanahan

in Houston, in Atlanta, in Washington. Joe Barry, the defensive coordinator, worked with Kyle Shanahan in Washington for years. Shanahan knows coordinator, worked with Kyle Shanahan in Washington for years. Shanahan knows him inside and out. Nathaniel Hackett took over for Shanahan in

Tampa, and those guys speak the same language from the Gruden stuff. So I don't think there's going to be this coaching edge from Green Bay either. Kyle knows all those guys inside and out, and Joe Barry especially, the defensive coordinator, was Kyle's guy forever there in Washington. And he knows that defense. So coaching edge, I'm going with Shanahan, despite LaFleur's great record. And then defense and running game, I think could be a lot. I feel fine picking the Niners. And that's crazy considering Aaron Rodgers is lining up against them at home. Adjusted line on FanDuel is Niners plus 7.5, which is minus 160. And if you put that with Tennessee,

just to win, plus 152. I like that. Just throwing that out. I think the Niners could lose by a field goal, but I don't see them getting blown out by the Packers. You know what I mean? Niners plus 7.5 with the Rams plus four and a half also adjusted on FanDuel.

Plus 170. Plus 170 for that combo. So mark this down. All right, next one. Chiefs Bills. We covered how Buffalo violates some playoff manifesto rules. We did not cover Buffalo's defense, which was very favorable

with advanced metrics, and I think people really like, even though they lost Tredavis Wright, you go through the schedule, really, really flimsy quarterback competition all the way through. The best quarterbacks they played were Mahomes early, and then Brady in week 14, he lit them up. Third best quarterback they played was Ryan Tannehill. Fourth best quarterback they played,

you can make a case it was Mac Jones. And then it just craters. So, I'm not positive this is the kind of defense that can shut down the Chiefs per se, especially with the McKinnon factor that we have now with the Chiefs.

And, you know, they have multiple guys. If Clyde Edwards Hilaire comes back, Edward, Clyde Edwards Hilaire, Clyde Edwards Hilaire, plural, Clyde Edwards. I had it right the first time. Why did I doubt myself? My pronunciation dyslexia. They'll be able to run the ball over, they move the ball. I think part of their plan will probably be to make sure the Bills just don't have the ball a lot. So you could see almost the Chiefs doing the reversal of what they usually are. It's like running good Chiefs. It's like, no, probably like long methodical drives.

Just try to get first downs, move the chains. Don't take any crazy chances. My first instinct was like, this could be like a 38 to 34, but it might not be. That might not be the Chiefs' best way to win because Buffalo stumbled onto something really great here with Allen and the shotgun and spread out and he's going to be running back and they know who they are now and I'm scared of them. To me, this should be Chiefs by three and it's Chiefs minus one and a half. I'm getting a point and a half.

I'm getting disrespect with the Chiefs and it feels like a Zach. It feels like America and the betting public is behind Buffalo. And this to me is an either team could win game. And I think you've talked me into it. I think my big take with the Chiefs is that they are

the two-time conference champions. It's the third straight conference championship game. It's in Arrowhead. And it's like, no one's picking us. And Mahomes, he's got that edge.

I know... There's some nobody believes in us here. It's unbelievable. It's crazy, but like, when he wasn't voted for the number one on NFL Network's top 100 list a few years ago,

it pissed him off. Like, they know that... So you think the Josh Allen stuff, the Josh Allen, like, oh, he's the next guy? 100%. 100%. That this is being handed to Josh think the Josh Allen stuff, the Josh Allen, like, oh, he's the next guy. 100%, 100% that this is being handed to Josh Allen before Josh Allen has seized it. I think, I also think that place is really tough to play on a Sunday night when it's going to be like this.

And I know the bills beat them on a Sunday night. And I know last year, the steel, you see what happens though, when Mahomes turns it on, they scored those three touchdowns so fast, so quickly against the Steelers. And then it was just an avalanche. I think that team has too much pride. I think McDermott, to beat his mentor, Andy Reid, it's going to take a lot. And I think we're dismissing Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, and a really, really veteran, experienced Chiefs team.

They still have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey, and they looked awesome last week. Jet McKinnon's a great story, all that stuff. This is going to come down to Mahomes or Allen, and I'm not ready to get off of Mahomes' block yet. I love that the line has moved toward that nobody believes in us part of this whole game for the Chiefs. And just in general, like the home team,

we covered earlier, it's really hard for a road team to win. And if we think the Niners are the road team, to get two in round two is really unusual. It's only happened, I think twice in the last 10 years. So I would, I would rather bet on the Niners being that team than the bills, but it just comes down to the looked a little too good. The previous round thing we've seen it year after year.

And I was guilty of it too. I, the first part of this week, I was like, Buffalo's gone. It's going to be Buffalo Niners. This is what's happening. And you know, I. And Chiefs are just sitting there going, cool. Okay. Thanks. And not to make it personal, but you and I have picked the Chiefs a lot this season. They've never let us down. In those games, they always find a way. And it's like, I don't know, am I abandoning my homes in the biggest of moments? At what point do I have any, the Superbowl last year? Maybe. At some point do I have any... The Super Bowl last year? Maybe. At some point,

Tredavious White not being on the Bills anymore should rear its ugly head. At some point, Levi Wallace is going to make a mistake at some point. Come on. All right. Bucks-Rams. Bucks are favored by three. We're so close to Brady versus GBG, which

as I covered earlier, I would absolutely love. What's a better storyline? Rams Niners again next week or Jimmy G versus Brady? Jimmy G Brady is the best. Also like divisive, uh,

New England argument with the ladies about who is more handsome. That was a real thing in the mid 2010s. Yeah. Real bar argument. Maybe no left tackle for either team. We might not, I mean, no, uh, no outside Maybe no left tackle for either team. No outside tackle. We might not have Whitworth. We might not have

Werfs. I think the Rams can win this game, so I don't mind taking the underdog. I think if the Bucs win, they probably win by three. And I think I hate to overreact

to what I saw last week, but I do, this Rams team that is built around all these top-notch players, all of them are healthy right now, and they got Odell going again, and you got McVay against Arians,

which I feel good about. I don't see a lot of reasons to take the Bucs. All the stuff we covered at the top of the pod about the security blankets being gone, not having God, but not having Antonio Brown, having to rely on Gronk, having to trust these guys that Brady, we saw last week, didn't seem like he totally trusted. And it just, it lines up to me. Like I could see this game. I could see the Rams being up like 10

to three, third and four tower. Johnson goes right, Brady Thire's going to go left, incomplete, Brady with his hands on his hips, and just one of those games. I can see it. So I like Rams plus 3. It was a really fun year

last year for Tampa. They built this thing from years behind, like just building with player to player, and then Brady was the final piece, and then he brings Gronk

and Antonio Brown, and they were rocky. And then it clicks. And then we rode the wave during million dollar picks. And this year has not been fun. It hasn't been fun. There's been a lot of injuries. There was contract stuff that they all kind of conceded to take less and

come back, but they're not. Injuries, dissatisfaction. They're not celebrating. They're not having, and then the, the Brown thing,

which I keep on, like, I just thought it was so ugly. And like, he's airing out Brady and Alex Guerrero. And it's just like... Arians is... Aaron's hitting his players.

All right. So we both like the Rams. The Akers thing, I think if that wasn't in play, I don't know if I'd feel as good about it. He looked great. But he looked really good. All right. When we come back...

The Million Dollar Picks picks for round two. All right. Million dollar picks. Round two, we won $709,000 last week. If you include last year's playoffs, we are up $5.36 million in five playoff rounds. Pretty good. Not bad. We really liked this week. In fact, we liked it so much, we had trouble figuring out what bets we were going to make and how to make them and do the whole thing.

Tennessee is favored by minus three and a half over the Bengals. What are we worried about in this game, Schrags? We're worried about Cincinnati just having Joe Burrow being this magician and being able to go on one of these great runs as a quarterback and saying, Allen, Mahomes, get out of the way. That's all I'm worried about. Otherwise, I love Tennessee in this one. And we're worried about the backdoor cover. That was supposed to be your first answer. Yeah, we think Burrow is like in that Josh Allen when he tasted the playoffs for the first time, kind of crossed with Josh Allen last year. He's somewhere in between

those two things. A little worried about going against him, but love this Tennessee team. Love the nobody believes in us factor. Derek Henry coming back. Resilient team. They're home. Nobody thinks they should even be the one seed. Perfect. We'll take them. We're going to bet $400,000 on the Tennessee

Titans minus three and a half. We're going to bet $400,000 on the Tennessee Titans minus three and a half. We're going to bet $200,000 on the San Francisco 49ers plus five and a half in Green Bay. We laid out the case. I think this is the best team in the NFC. I think they can win the game outright

if they don't. I think it's a tight game. Packers, we're special teams. Not only in the playoffs, in the league. They were 32nd, 22nd defense. They got some guys coming back,

but in general, this is the perfect type of team to beat the Packers in cold weather in Lambeau. Do you agree? Yes. Kyle Shanahan has these guys dialed in. He has also worked with all of the coaches in Green Bay,

knows Joe Barry's defense inside and out. And when they get Debo Samuel going, everyone knows it's going to him. And yet the whole entire offense commits to creating those opportunities. When they played in week three, Debo Samuel did nothing out of the running back spot. I think he's going to do a whole bunch and good luck stopping it. No one else has. We're going to have a prop with this because we also like Elijah Mitchell in this game because he's shown some size as well all right 100k on the following bets Chiefs minus one and a half it's against the Buffalo Bills let's go we think this line should be Chiefs by three we love that the Bills are the everybody believes in us team from last round

that everybody has Josh Allen headed to the all-time quarterback Hall of Fame, including myself. I did it with Sal. I was like, who'd you rather have, Mahomes or Allen? I think I'd rather have Josh Allen. Mahomes hears all of this. Oh, yeah. Mahomes has his spies. He has his ears. He's like, oh, Josh Allen's the guy? I'm not

the guy anymore? I'm out? What did I do? All I did was I made the Super Bowl twice. I won one of What did I do? All I did was I made the Superbowl twice. I won one of them. I made the AFC title game, got screwed over by D Ford. I would have made it that year too. I'm out. I'm out. I'm Pat Mahomes. I'm out. Who's this guy? Anyway, we like the Chiefs We love Jet McKinnon Oh We like his work We enjoy him In general Chiefs minus one and a half

It's a dogfight We like having the home team And again It's really hard for Road teams to win Last 10 years Nine of the last 40 We've seen the road team win

So That cannot be slept on In round two It's very hard for the road team win. So that cannot be slept on in round two. It's very hard for the road team to win. If this game was in Buffalo, I might go a different way. I just don't think Mahomes, Hill, Kelsey, Andy Reid, and those guys are ready to just give that torch to Josh Allen and the Bills just yet. I'll add in, last week was a masterpiece from the Bills. It was the greatest offensive performance we've seen from that team. Brian Dable put it on national television. Can you replicate that? You might have to against this team. And lastly, to your point

with Mahomes, Allen goes out there, throws five touchdowns, runs for 70 yards. Perfect game. Sunday night, Mahomes throws for 400 yards, five touchdowns. Hold my beer. I don't think he's ready to go quietly into the night and just be a part of the Josh Allen story just yet. It's a hold my beer game for Pat Mahomes. I like it. All right. We're putting 100K on the Chiefs minus one and a half and on the Rams plus three. We feel like this is a field goal game. There's a lot of

signs that we talked about earlier in the pod with the Bucs that things just a little off all over the place. Doesn't feel right. Doesn't feel right with the Brady and the receivers with some guys out. A lot of pressure on Grock in this game. Can Mike Evans play four quarters in a row? Can Leonard Fournette do

anything? They didn't want to play him last week. Had some sort of hammy issue. What happens if he's not out there? Who is Brady's check down guy if the Rams pass rush is all over? Cooper Cup. Odell got going last week. I don't even love this Rams team, but I think they have as much of a chance to win as the Bucks do. So we're going to grab the plus three.

Stop the run. Send those dogs, Vaughn Miller, Leonard Floyd, and then drop back seven. And if Brady can dissect that defense with big plays from Terrell Johnson and Scotty Miller and Brashad Perryman, then God bless them. They did it. I don't know. I like the Rams in this one. And I just, I look at a lot of the different things with worse and with Jensen.

And if they're not at a hundred percent, Aaron Donald and Vaughn Miller and Leonard Floyd and Greg Gaines can give them hell. Some props. We're going to put 100K on the Niners money line plus 200

with the Titans to win. That is plus 366. 100K, you good? We go 75K if you want. Go 75K. I like the Niners with the points, but I don't want to put too much on the win, but I like it with the points for sure.

All right. So we'll do... Maybe we'll just put 50K in that. Okay. Because I had 50K in the end. We'll put a little 50K in that one. Now, you know what? You know what? Do your thing. You know what? 75K. I'm feeling it. 75K. Niners win, Titans win, plus 366. I wonder if FanDuel will boost that for us. We'll find out this weekend,

because we're going to boost at least one of these on Fando. I have another 50K with the Niners. Adjusted line, plus 7.5 with the Rams. Adjusted line, plus 4.5. That is plus 170. We're going to put 50K on that. We're also going to put 50K on Titans. Adjusted line, minus 9.5.

A.J. Brown will score a TD. A.J. Brown will score a TD. A.J. Brown will have 75 yards or more rushing. That is plus 829. Receiving. A.J. Brown, right? Yeah, receiving. Okay.

Receiving. 50K or 33K on that? Let's go 50K. Let's go 50K. Let's win a lot of money on that Titans game. And then we have two small ones that we're going to do

for 33K. I'm going to give you a choice. Okay. Rams defensive touchdown at any point in the game with Rams plus three and a half slightly adjusted is plus 969. Okay. Rams defense scores the first touchdown in the game. Rams win

is plus 56-54. Let's do that one. Let's go. You want to go? So Rams, you know what? You want to put 10K on that? Yeah, 10K.

That could settle the entire season for us on Million Dollar Picks. We're good. Let's just kick back and enjoy the... Who's going to score it? Call out who's going to score it.

Is it Ramsey? It feels like strip sack, like Leonard Floyd bringing it in. Is it Eric Weddle going to the house of the picks? Eric Weddle's cheering it on. 10K on that, then 33K on the following parlay. It's the same game parlay, which I'm trying to get FanDuel to boost this. You know what?

We'll boost it right now. We're going to boost it from plus 8.86 to plus 9.50. Okay. And maybe they'll even be more generous than that, but we're boosting it for the pot. Elijah Mitchell will have 60 plus rushing yards. Okay. Deebo Samuel will have 25 plus rushing yards. Juwan Jennings will score a TD at some point in the game. Number 15. Let's go. Niners plus seven and a half alternate spread. That is plus nine 50. We're boosting it to, we're going to put 33 K on that as well.

And those are, those are any, anything. What did we miss? Anything? Jawan Jennings scored a touchdown. Let's go on Jennings. We got Rams defense,

little AJ Brown, Debo Samuel. We have, we. We got Rams defense. Little A.J. Brown. Deebo Samuel. We'll have some heroes. Can't wait for this weekend. And Pat Mahomes. Just remember, people including myself said, eh, might take Josh Allen over you.

Just keep that pulsating in your brain. Those are the Million Dollar Picks for round two. Peter Schrager. Pleasure, as always. Let's go. All right. That's it for the podcast. It was produced by Kyle Creighton pleasure as always. Let's go. All right. That's it for the podcast.

It was produced by Kyle Creighton as always. Thanks to Ariel. And thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to FanDuel. And I will see you on this feed with the cuz on Sunday night. Looking forward to it.