The Bill Simmons Podcast - Burning NBA Questions With Zach Lowe

Episode Date: October 5, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by ESPN's Zach Lowe to discuss a bunch of questions before the start of the 2022-23 NBA season, such as: Is this the year for the 76ers? Did the Celtics miss their title window last season? Will the Nets be good? Could the Nuggets be a 1-seed? And more! Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Zach Lowe Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Ringer has four local sports podcasts right now. Off the Pike in Boston, The Fogo in Chicago, New York, New York, and New York. And the Ringer's Philly Special. If you like the sports teams from any of those cities, I would highly encourage you to check out those podcasts. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite.

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And listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Hope you're checking out the hottest take. I really, really was firing on all cylinders on Monday

with the hottest take about AirPods. I'm so proud of it. Go check that out. I was not on the rewatchables this week. 10th anniversary of Pitch Perfect, summoned Juliette Lipman, Jody Walker, and Kate Hollowell to break it down. So there you go. Coming up on this podcast, it's always a Shawshank moment when we get back together. It's like Red and Andy on the beach. Me and Zach Lowe talking NBA. It's next.

But first, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right. My friend Zach Lowe is here. We used to work together at a site called grantland.com a long time ago. He's at ESPN. I'm at The Ringer. We're still friends. Occasionally we do home and home podcasts. He is on mine right now.

I'm going on his at the end of the week. We like to do dumb gimmicks when we go on each other's podcasts. You came up with this gimmick. Explain the gimmick. I just called it, are we sure? Are we sure that piece of semi-NBA nerd conventional wisdom is true? Or are we sure that this thing that i strongly believe is not crazy are just are we sure it seemed like a good simmons gimmick are we sure lebron is going to finish his

career with the lakers i didn't do that one because i listened to you and brian last week so you hit that one hard but are we sure dot dot dot are we sure dot dot dot question mark yeah i'm gonna give you i'm gonna give you uh the first are we sure? You go. We'll alternate. I was really tempted to do, are we sure Boston isn't screwed? But I'm going to skirt that one and we're going to go somewhere related. Bill Simmons, are we sure that this isn't the year of the Philadelphia 76ers? Oh, I had that one too. Are we sure? I had, where is it?

I had, are we sure Philly shouldn't be the favorite in the league? Whoa. Yeah. Even stronger. Because on FanDuel, the Celtics are the favorite. And the Nets are right there. Well, I think part of it has to do with where they set the odds and they want people to bet on it. But I look, nobody's going to be more suspicious of a James Harden led team than your friend, Bill Simmons. I like everything they did.

Even the PJ Tucker contract, which was too long. And by year three, that's going to be whatever. It's a one-year deal. That's going to be three years. But he makes your team wuss proof. You have him on your team. Guys on the team can no longer get away with things. And I do feel like for the Harden evolution, he's going to be important. I also like Harden did look like he was in shape, right? You watched that. What did you think?

Did or did not at the end of last year or now? Right now, when he gave that press conference and the whole thing, I was actually a believer that he's in shape. Sure. I mean, that's great. I hope he's in shape. It's his job to be in shape. We'll see if he's in shape by the end of the year. But yeah, he looked good. He looked good, and I actually thought he had

some playoff games where he looked... I think the old James Harden is dead, and we all need to get over it. Houston, Harden, get by anybody. That's not coming back, even if the hamstring's okay. But he had some games in the playoffs where he looked like he could still do enough, do enough to at least get inside shoulder position, do enough to get to the rim.

His slogan for the year should just be, do enough. Do it when it's elimination game time, when it's two, two game five, the whole season is at stake. I don't, I don't expect 30 and 12. I don't expect step back. There used to be just, just do enough to, to, to help a little bit. That's all 23, eight and seven. Yeah. And you7 in your sect 18-12 and I didn't just sort of stand around as the game unfolded around me as if I were plotting what my post game plans and where

I was going to go on my first vacation just that because he's still pretty damn good I think he's still going to be an all-star this year in the conversation for third team all NBA and the talent around him is I think this is the best team top

to bottom of the Joel Embiid era. The only one that's close is the Butler one. And I went through that last week. Six, seven, and eight in postseason minutes on that team are Mike Scott, James Ennis, and Boban.

Like, that's sick. That's your next three guys. This team is loaded. Couldn't agree more. I also, I never sold my Tybalt stock last year. It cratered. It was like Bitcoin. And I watched the market crash,

and I watched it, and I was like, you know what, I'm holding on. I still believe in guys who can be elite defenders and might learn how to shoot three. There's been some good Bible buzz. At some point, I'll figure out if it's tribal or tribal. I just call them both. I alternate depending on what kind of mood I'm in. And we both really like Melton.

No, to me, it's like you. We look at it the same way in a lot of respects. I just like give me playoff series, guys. Can you play in a playoff series? I come out of every playoffs and I look at my own team and some of the others. And it's like, could you have played in that series? Melton's a playoff series guy. I still feel like Tybalt's a playoff guy.

And then we know P.J. Tucker is. And the thing with P.J. Tucker, especially against the Celtics, is he's going to do all the P.J. Tucker stuff. He's going to do all the stuff he did in the Miami series. And honestly, other than Butler, has Embiid even played with a guy like that? A guy who's tougher than him? It's really just Butler. And they've missed that kind of personality. Now, whether Melton's a playoff guy is is up for debate because he kind of fell out of the out of the rotation for i'm just saying what what he what he brings to the table is stuff i want in a playoff series well i can i can swear on this podcast freely and yes when i

talk about what melton brings to the sixers i have to talk around it what he brings to this team is a fuck shit up guy and they need a fuck shit up guy because they can be like slow and sluggy which is not even a word they just need like he comes in there and he gets rebounds and he flies around and he gets steals this is like a really bad rebounding team outside of mb'd tucker will do the same thing offense he's a sneaky good offensive rematch goes in there and trucks guys on the baseline they needed a fuck shit up guy and melton melton brings that dimension in the open court on the glass yeah look i mean the case against the sixers is health conditioning and beads always injured which is like they're but they're always like he gets elbowed in the like what am i supposed to do about him getting elbow

in the face that's not anything to meen crapping the bed when it matters. Well, we know. Well, I'm just factoring that in. And I still think you could say they're the favorites, even when we're factoring in the James Harden crappy playoff games. And then Harden and Maxie being two defensive liabilities in their crunch time five, which I just think. I think you can you can plot around that in a lot of different ways. But I disagree with, like, there's Harden crappy playoff games, and then there's Harden took two shots in the second half of an elimination game. If that guy shows up, they can never win the title.

They need him to be good enough. Their talent isn't that overwhelming that he can just no-show big games. He has to show something. Maxie, I would expect he's at least 5% better, 10% better than he was last year. He was good last year. But his year three, he'll be a little bit

better at least. And then Harrow is... Look, Harrow's been on every team at the league at this point, but I still like him more than Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, like all the kind of washed up centers that they've had as backups. At least the big concern with me is just the doc piece. And we've seen doc being handed loaded rosters. I would say over the last 15 years, the rosters Doc has coached just from a

talent level standpoint is ludicrous. And here's another one, you know, and every year it's like, oh, this happened, this happened, this happened. I'll just do, I'll do a little bonus. Are we sure here? Are we sure Doc Rivers is still the Sixers coach in February? Because if this goes badly out of the gate, I think they move fast. This is either we start out fast, this is great. If they start out sluggish, I think they're, I just don't think he's going to make it.

Okay, who gets the job then? Mike D. Cassell's still on that bench, right? Could be Cassell. Jaeger. They do have, They do have guys. They have stuff. Yeah. I just think there's no excuse for him now.

You could blame Ben Simmons before. You can blame injuries. You can blame some of the front office stuff with the rosters he's been dealt with. The Atlanta series, I still think he didn't get enough blame for. But in this case, I really like this roster, and they have one of the best five guys in the league you know on top of harden in a comeback year so um well i what no it's it's it's all there and it's funny you mentioned doc because someone asked me last week what's more on another podcast writes to ricky santos'm sure. They make fun of both of us relentlessly.

Never heard of him. What's more likely, the Sixers make the finals or Doc is fired before next season? And I said, well, that's easy. I mean, Doc is fired before next season. But just making the finals is really, really hard. Failing to make the finals is much easier. And I do think there'd be a coaching change. I did not think about what happens if it starts slow. Is the pressure that high?

That's an interesting one. I think they're all in on this team. And there's only going to be one person who gets blamed. All right, here's my first, are we sure? Man, I feel like I'm walking across train tracks with the train coming on this one. Are we sure 2018 Anthony Davis is gone? Oh, no, I'm not sure about that at all.

I've been predicting a vengeance Anthony Davis year for six months, and I think he was 20th in our NBA rank thing that I don't participate in, mostly because I'm too lazy to respond to all the emails. 20th, we're that low on Anthony Davis that Harden is 11th and AD is 20th. I understand the availability thing. I think he's going to – it's just the jump shooting. It just can't be league worst. He's got to make some jump shots, but I think he's going to have a big year.

I think everyone got too low on him. You talked all last year about how he looked heavy and plotting and i think there was some truth to that yeah um i think he's read what is he 29 years old like he's not is he 30 yet 2012 draft so yeah he's in that probably 29 30 range i mean i i'm not sure that guy is is gone at all in fact i'm expecting the opposite. I'm expecting everything but Anthony Davis and LeBron James to torpedo the Lakers, whatever hopes they have or think they have of being a contender. Yeah. I was thinking about, I'll just do my next, are we sure we can, I'll just do two in a row. We didn't really establish ground rules because it doesn't, it just is all just an excuse to talk.

Yeah. So this ties into the next thing I was going to mention was just, are we sure this isn't the most talented the league's been since you and I have been alive? Because I think you could make a case. They have more great players, more all-star or almost all-star players, and more good players than I can ever remember. I always do a thing when I get ready for the season.

I do each team. I do all the odds. I do the rosters, what I think the depth chart's going to be. Me too. Look at this stack of people right here. So I have it all on a Word doc. And every year I'm always amazed. Like, man, that team, after guy six,

that team falls off a cliff. No teams really fall off a cliff anymore except like the four bad ones, right? You even go like a team like Detroit. And I go through their roster, I'm like, this team's not bad. This team could have been like a seven seed in 2015.

So when I think about the question of is Davis back, there's a world where he might be back and really close to 2018 Davis, but the league's a lot better. So it might not matter as much as it did five years ago. Did that make sense? No, absolutely. League's a lot better. Top of the West is absolutely loaded and fit is more important than ever.

And you just can't have a disaster fit anywhere on your roster but to your point like you even even like the tank teams you look at their rosters and it's really only the teams that just pivoted this offseason that don't have someone that makes you really really excited and that's the spurs and the jazz and there are players on the spurs i like like vissell i really like alda johnson i like but you know Thunder, we're going to forget all season, but they've got Holmgren along with SGA. Orlando's got Banquero. Houston's got a bunch of guys.

I mean, Detroit's got Cunningham and Ivy. Even these bottom-feeding teams are super exciting with guys that might be franchise players already. I can't believe future franchise players. I can't believe you said Orlando has Ben Caro and didn't say Orlando has Ben Caro and Franz. You should have just shot Cerruti in the, in the side of the head. That was just a drive by shooting of Cerruti. It's cause it's cause Franz is a given is a really good player. I could have said, to really make Cerruti happy, I could have said Orlando has Bankero and Chuma Okiki.

I still haven't given up hope on Chuma Okiki. You kept your stock? Yeah. I think what's interesting about the league this year, and it makes it so hard with the over-unders, is how few easy games there are. Especially in the East. Detroit's coming to town.

Oh, cool. Well, in the fourth quarter, they're going to have Cade. They'll have the one out of four Jaden Ivey gets hot game. And then Bogdanovich, who is still a really good offensive player, the random Sadiq Bey hits 40 points game. I just, House and I were saying on Thursday, like the Wizards team, which they're over under is like 40. And I don't think people think they're anything more than a play-in team.

But if you put that Wizards team in 2015, I think that would have been like a five seed. I really do. So top to bottom, it's important. And then from going back to the Davis side, there's more big guys than we've had. It was more impactful to have somebody like him in 18. I'm impressed by the length of some of these teams.

You know, even like, did you see Wiseman last night? I saw the first game. I didn't see, I didn't see, I saw the good game, not the game we fouled out and had eight points. Yeah. So you just,

you see him on a basketball court. The guy's fucking big. Like we just haven't seen him in a while, but there's a lot of athletes with size in the league in 23, on top of all the shooting, all the other stuff. And I think it's gonna be a really hard year to predict the middle class here right there's a hot take that's not even a hot take as long as we're on the subject of these teams i think one of orlando

and detroit is finishing ahead of both washington and charlotte washington and charlotte are like the wtf teams for me in the east like Like, what are these teams? Where are they going? What are they trying to do? I just, what is this collection of talent adding up to? I'm just, I'm not that excited about either of those teams. I guess Indiana is really going to be the only easy out in the East, if and when they make like one trade. And even now they're kind of an easy out.

Yeah. And you, what did you, were you the one that reported that the, it was buddy and miles for Westbrook and the two picks and the Pacers would have said yes, obviously. And the Lakers came, I think a lot closer to doing that trade than people realize. But I think, I actually think it was the right move to hold off because you just never know by the time you get to December, what, what situations are going to become unhappy, what players are going to come available. And I really like Turner and I like healed and I would have done that trade just to dump Westbrook. Um, but I also think

Indiana was probably, do you think, first of all, do you think Indiana just says yes to that? Or do you, cause they're taking a $47 million contract back. I do. I think two unprotected Lakers picks, they're saying yes, and they're just going to deal with Russ, whether buyout, John Wall-style agreement, whatever. I think the two unprotected picks are just viewed as gems. What is the actual price of an unprotected pick then?

So you're saying an unprotected pick is worth $25 million? That's an interesting way to look at it. I think it's worth... I guess you have to look at it now. What's the cost of not trading Miles Turner and either letting him go for nothing

or re-signing him on some exorbitant number? I mean, there's all sorts of costs and benefits. I think those two unprotected picks are really, really highly valued because LeBron will be, you know, what is it, gone by the time the last one comes, you know, unless he's truly this unprecedented mid-40s Tom Brady NBA guy. But yeah, I think they would do that deal because what else are they going to do?

And then it's not only that deal, it's then they become the absolute odds on favorites for the worst record in the NBA and in a year where that's extra valuable. Yeah, because the big variable this year is there's two guys, not one. So you can say there are four. Right. Well, we know we have two and there might even be more than that because there's always that third guy that emerges. I'm glad you mentioned.

You've mentioned this. When B just doesn't even look like a real thing. It, it, it, it's like he's seven, three or seven, four.

I was talking about him with somebody the other day. Cause my son and I were watching the YouTube clips. My son was saying how this was a player he would recreate in 2k. Like he, he, he has a guy that he created that's like six 10 and is a rim runner and all this stuff. But this guy is absurd. Like you wouldn't even be able to have enough coins in 2k to create this. And you watch it and it really does seem like he's been CGI'd. Like he might not exist until he's in Vegas tomorrow. I'm not going to be kidding until I know people in my life who have seen him in person. I'm not positive. It's like Bigfoot. I just don't know if he's a real person, but he, he's like a plus on every single part of basketball. Like his shot blocking is

like, if, if, uh, you know, the Kembe Mutombo could move more and you just going down the line, it's like, what is this guy bad at? Where did he come from? I'm surprised conspiracy theory, Bill. And maybe I've missed it. I haven't listened to every one of your podcasts because you'll throw in an NBA side on an NFL podcast that I will skip. I'm surprised conspiracy theory, Bill, hasn't come out and talked up the Wemby to the Spurs dominoes that are starting to line up as the NBA. Because conspiracy theory, Bill, would see it. You would see model franchise pop all the way out. Oh, Duncan.

Model franchise falling on hard times. Did everything right. The poster child for doing everything right. That small markets can survive. One-year tank. Tony Parker, France connections. It's all there. It's all there. Not condoning it. I'm just saying conspiracy theory. Bill would see it. The best ever was when

they gave new Orleans, Anthony Davis. That was my favorite. See, now we're getting back. Now we're getting there, but you've been in the room every year when they do the lottery. I was in the room that year. Yeah. You've dissuaded me. Yeah that room man if they could figure out how to rig the lottery what a scandal let's take a break more and we'll do more Are We Sure's start the NFL week off right with a no sweat same game parlay every Thursday from FanDuel America's number one sportsbook

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Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really. Ugh.

This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. All right, you're up. Give me your next Are We Sure. Are we sure the Milwaukee Bucks aren't the obvious favorite to win the championship? Are we sure they shouldn't have won last year? It's a pretty fluke thing with the Middleton. Yeah. I guarantee Golden State did not want to see the Milwaukee Bucks with Chris Middleton in the finals.

I think that's the series. Somebody in the league texted me this yesterday. That's the series that the NBA impartial NBA nerd wants to see Giannis versus the Warriors. I don't know if that's true. I hadn't really thought about that because there's so many teams I love to watch, including like, I'm excited for the Clippers to be, to be back, but there is a certain appeal to Bucks Warriors that I hadn't thought about.

I'm in answering my own question. I'm picking Milwaukee as of now to win the title. It's Milwaukee or Philly for me. I'm wondering why Philly isn't a favorite, but I know at gunpoint when I actually have to make a pick next week, I'm probably getting safe and doing Milwaukee because I'm just going to think. I mean, when did you write that James Harden playoff column? That was like four years ago. 2020, this is James Harden's opportunity to rewrite his playoff legacy, 2020, going into

the Lakers Rockets bubble series where they shockingly crapped the bed. And then I think I did the book of basketball pod about him probably before that. And it was just like, at some point you kind of are who you are with your resume, right? That's when I, that's when I infuriated you by compared by calling James Harden, the guard, Carl Malone. I was one of the best single best and most jealous observations I've ever been a part of where I was just like, God damn it. Why didn't I think of that? Maybe maybe this is the year. Well, Carl Malone never won. What was he talking, God damn it. Why didn't I think of that? Guard Carmelone is the best. Maybe this is the year. Well, Carmelone never won. We're supposed to be talking about the

Bucs. So you'll take Bucs over anyone in the West. Clippers, Warriors reloading after a title. You're taking Bucs over everyone. No. I think the Bucs are the safest. If my life ends unless I pick the right finals

team, that's the safest pick. Because you're betting on Giannis and his prime. You're betting on the infrastructure. They've been in big games. They probably should have at least made the finals last year. Golden State has some variables, which we'll get to with one of my are we shores. But I think it has to be one of those two. And then Philly is the fun pick. Philly is the, oh, I've had a couple drinks. Watch this. I'm picking Philly and talking yourself into it. But I do think there's a roadmap for like an awesome Philly season.

Yeah. Philly is the, I've had a couple of drinks. I can definitely jump from this deck into the pool and for sure I'll make it. It'll be fine for sure. This is my moment. For sure. I'm going to do it. Yeah.

I just know this. I found it really impressive that they took Boston to seven games without Middleton, even though game seven was a blowout. And game six was their chance to win that series in Milwaukee. Yeah. And I was around the Celtics a lot late in the playoffs. And when that series ended, to a man, at least that I talked to, their vibe, either directly or indirectly, was, I never want to see that motherfucker again about Giannis. Like, that guy, I'm so wounded from just facing that guy mentally

and physically for seven straight games. And I think last season they had Holiday and Middleton wounded from just facing that guy mentally and physically for seven straight games. And I think last season they had Holiday and Middleton go right to the Olympics. Then they had injuries, you know, and now they lose early. I think Giannis is just coming back hungry and ready. Oh, the lose early is a good one. Yeah, that's the extra month of just rehab and TLC. I think he's coming to kill everybody this year. I'll tell you this.

You talk to the Celtics players about how they never want to see that motherfucker again. That also went for all the fans. I needed like a week break after that series. That was one of the single scariest experiences I've ever had in my life. Just having to play that dude in a playoff series. There's nobody like him. And he's still getting better. He's still getting better. And I think they have enough surrounding talent other than the two other all-star level guys. You know, look, it could be any of six or seven teams, but I'm picking Milwaukee.

And I was saying that before the Celtics kind of went haywire. I hope one of your, are we sure it's about the Celtics at some point. It is. Should I do it now? Sure. Are we sure the Celtics didn't miss their window last season? Boy, that one hurt just to hear. That hurts.

I know it hurts your soul a little bit to see that. What makes you think that? Because the team, let's just say, let's just assume Robert Williams comes back totally healthy. He's completely fine. He's the peak player. Two knee surgeries in five months. I'm just saying, let's wish it away and assume it's Christmas. And it's like, okay, Robert Williams is back. He feels great.

He looks amazing. Yeah, Gallo's hurt. Fine. Is the coaching thing really, is it the coach? Is it Udoka? Is it what's happened there and the chaos resulting from that? So here are my fears in order. I thought they overachieved last year. And I think Milwaukee would have beaten them with Middleton, but they got by Milwaukee because Middleton wasn't there.

I think Milwaukee healthy. Now you could say the Celtics didn't have Robert Williams. Or they had an impaired Robert Williams. Game seven came down to, the Bucs said, Grant Williams is going to have to make eight threes against us. We're out of answers after 16. Yeah, we're out of answers. This is the only one we got. Our last move is Grant Williams in a game seven on national TV in front of a really

tense crowd. He's just going to have to keep making threes. And guess what he did? And then he never did it again for the rest of the playoffs. And you think about that. You think about that. Middleton was out. Middleton always kills the Celtics.

So you have that piece. Look, Udoka had an incredible impact on the team, on the players, on the organization, on the team, on the players, on the organization, on the culture. And to just say they can run it back with a different coach, I think belittles the impact that he had just as a basketball coach. I'm not talking about, I don't know what happened. We still don't know what happened behind the scenes. There might be more stuff coming out. But just losing that guy is not a plus. It's just not. He gave them, I thought he was the toughest guy in the entire team.

And that team could get pushed around. Draymond sniffed it out in game two. And once he sniffed that out, that series eventually was just never the same because Golden State knew that they were just a little bit tougher. Imei was the toughest guy

the Celtics had. So there's that. And then, you know, there's real expectations this year. Last year, there weren't. They're the favorites right now, you know, and now it's like, could Tatum be the MVP? There's a different level of baggage that comes with making the finals and it could be either a good thing, bad thing. And I don't know how it's going to play out. So those would be my three things. And I think Gallo, look, he was going to be the ninth man, but that was a really important

piece for them that now they're relying on Sam Hauser potentially to fill it. And by the way, it's not unrealistic because they're betting on the history of the Duncan Robinson. You love all these guys that when Steve Novak could play in playoff games, like there's these mid twenties white guy shooters that those guys once in a while can do it. But, you know, those make me feel as good as Gallo. So that's my case. What did I miss? Hey, look,

everyone with the Celtics during the finals and the conference finals last year was, was telling me watch Hauser in warmups, watch Hauser. I watched it once. He made everything. He's part of our team next year. So, so, um, let me flip the Celtics thing around in terms of overachieving last year and expectations this year. Flip it around. They're 530 games into last season, whatever it was, 25, 30 games into the last season. So they're fighting themselves and they're fighting for their season the entire rest of the year.

They're playing balls out the entire rest of the year they're playing balls out the entire regular season they hit this formula a little bit less than halfway through where they just start crushing everybody but along the way they're playing for like the regular season championship they care about all these games then they make the playoffs and it gets a little tougher you face the nets who they sweep away pretty not in fact and it gets a little tougher. You face the Nets who they sweep away pretty, not in fact, but it's a tight series. Yeah, it was a good battle, tight series, but they get that, you know, game one is the buzzer beater from smart to Tatum and it turns out great. Um, then after that, it's one great defense after another and those defenses, and I also think the minutes load that Tatum and Brown had been carrying

all season, combined to just kind of strangle the life out of Boston's offense. Flash forward a year, and they're turnover prone, and they're aimless, and they're not thinking through possessions. All the stuff that we talked about the entire conference finals and finals. And Waite, they lost Waite about halfway through the finals where he just became a mess all of a sudden. That wasn't open either. Wouldn't shoot.

Wouldn't and couldn't shoot. Off and on the last three rounds, that was the Derek White experience. They have one great game. Remember the game against Miami where he almost single-handedly

won them the game? And then it was like, where'd that guy go? Flip it around. This season, all right, we went to the finals. We're totally confident in who we are. We don't have to go balls out in the regular season. We're going to play the

long game and whatever role fatigue and inexperience played in our unraveling offensively, not defensively, defensively, they were, they remained pretty damn good. The entire playoffs agree. That's not going to happen to us. We're better prepared for that this time around. I'm actually optimistic in that sense about the Celtics. The coaching thing is just, it's so hard to quantify, but I'm with you. It just, it can't be nothing. It can't have no negative impact on the team. It's just a matter of how long it lasts and how they fix it. But it is, it's got to have some consequence to their culture. Well, and then on top of it, just, it's going to play out a certain way and it's got to have some consequence to their culture. Well, and then on top of it, it's going to play out a certain way and it's going to be a story until there's resolution.

And I don't love that piece of it either. And I think the East is better. As we talked about before, Philly's going to be better. Milwaukee's going to be healthy again. And did you have a Toronto, are we sure? No, because you'm I'm you. You hit me with Toronto because I'm all right. Couldn't be higher under.

I think I'm as high on the Raptors as like anybody could be. Are we sure Toronto and Denver shouldn't be in the one seed discussions for the regular season? Wow. Yeah. Yeah. I just did season. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. I just did that. Okay. Okay.

That escalated. That escalated beyond. Was that, did I break your brain? Was that my first brain break? Denver's an easy, an easy, I don't even remember exactly how the question was phrased, but Denver's an easy, like, absolutely they're going to be in the one seed race.

Denver's awesome. I don't understand why they're over under as 49 and a half. It's a complete no brainer. They're going to crush that. Toronto is the one seed. So they won 48 games last year. What's the one seed in the East? It's not 60.

Yeah, I was going to say it's generally going to be 55, something like that, probably. So can we get seven more wins out of them with year two Scotty Barnes? You know he's going to be awesome. Siakam and Van Vliet, I looked it up. They missed 31 combined. OG missed 34.

This is the year, Bill. This is the year. It could be the year. This is the year. This is the year. He's going to all put it together. I'm going to be saying this every every year i'm not buying the stock um i do like otto porter on this team and it's weirdly it's the nba is so weird where these guys can bounce around and they can land

on a certain team you're like oh that like when b eliza was on the warriors last year it's like oh that wouldn't make sense what's not to like? He just started in the finals and looked completely comfortable in that role. He can shoot and he is by dimensions and skill a Toronto Raptor. He's a 6'8", switchable dude. And what do you think, what about the second round pick from last year? Are you buying the, there's some buzz.

There's the Danton, what's his name? The guy from Canada? Del the Danton. What's his name? The guy, the guy from Canada. Delano Banton. Banton. There's some Banton buzz about six, nine can play multiple positions. You might see him out there. I never know what to believe with Toronto because every time they do this, the guy ends up being good. We're like, Oh, so-and-so then watch out for the Siakam. I was like, all right, whatever. And then it's like, oh my God, Siakam's good. So now it's like, I see a Banton. I'm like, all right, I might be buying Banton stock.

I don't know. So Banton had like a 15 game run in the regular season last year. It was like, oh, oh, look at this guy. And Nick Nurse was talking him up. That's just the case of Kenny Shoot. Because he can do everything else and he just can't shoot or won't shoot. But that, I i mean the reason why you're you're you're almost talking me into it i just don't think their offense is going to be consistent enough for them to win that many games they were

18th on offense last year backup point guard like they had to play van vliet to death last year to survive on offense they still haven't figured out backup point guard, unless the answer is just some combination of Scotty Barnes and Siakam and Scotty Barnes making another leap. And I'm with you. I think he's going to be awesome. Well, one thing I was thinking, you, you always, you were one of the first people that introduced the concept of the five man lineups and the success rate of specific lineups and how that almost always correlated into real

success, right? If you're a five-man lineup with a lot of minutes and you're also really high in the plus minus, that's usually going to translate to wins for the team unless your bench is a complete disaster. That Van Vliet, Trent, Ananobi, Barnes, Siakam, those five together, I think when those stats start coming out by like the 25 game mark, don't you see them in like the top three? Just those five. And then if they can figure out the bench,

I don't know, they're over under 46 and a half. And to me, that's way too low. I like that team. Well, and is that the lineup they're going to start? Because then Achua comes off the bench. Right. And do you start Achua comes off the bench. Right. And do you start Achua or Trent? I think that's the either or.

The other guys are going to get locked in as starters. And I think both those lineups, those two five-man groups, are both going to be awesome. The first one, the Siakam at center one, I think had off the top of my head just an okay net rating last year. But I agree with you. That's the kind of lineup of the future for them. But I love what I'm buying Achua

as like a three-point shooting off the dribble threat at what passes for center for them. I mean, backups centers, they don't have a real traditional sort of like if they run into Embiid kind of center, but they just compensate by doing all sorts of crazy stuff on defense. I think they're really good. But that guy is a guy we know they can pick up in January

or February if they really feel like, oh my God, we might be like a potential round three team. Let's go get a center. So for the possible and beat series, that's a good guy. I want show. That's right. Movie star. I've never quit on Wancho. Neither am I. I like his game. The six, nine, three point shooting. I'm in. Here's the reality of their, of these. There are eight teams where if you went to all of their fan bases one by one and said, your team's going to be in the play in tournament this year, all eight would say, that's impossible. You hate our team. How is that even possible? Why do you hate us?

Have you seen our roster? I'm like, okay, well, it's just math. Like two of you out of Milwaukee, Boston, Toronto, Miami, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Brooklyn. Did I get them all? Two of those teams are in the play-in tournament. That's just reality. And if you're high on Toronto, like we both are, that's another spot. I don't want to say locked up,

but it gets harder for the Clevelands and Atlantas and maybe Miamis of the world and whatever the hell Brooklyn is going to be. There are only six spots and then you're in the play-in tournament. What are my favorite bets? Is Atlanta plus 125 to be a play-in tournament team?

It's tough. I mean, again, and if you went to Atlanta and told Trey young that to his face, we play, and we were in the conference finals two years ago and we just got an all-star guard. Well,

you can't tell with me, can't tell an NBA player anything these days, unless you're just praising them profusely. Well, but I, I want, they take everything personally now. All right,

fine. Then forget Trey young. If you just went to hot, if you went to Rembert and said, remember Brown and Brown said, you're going to be in a playing tournament, he might say. No, that's not fair. You can't say that to an Atlanta fan because they're self-loathing. So they'd be like, you're probably right. We're probably going to suck. They're, they're going to be glass, glass half empty. Um, did you have an Atlanta? Are you, are we sure? No, I didn't. I didn't. I generally was going to do an, are we sure no i didn't i didn't i generally was going to do an are we sure the

the two big guard trades were actually a good idea for their teams just to be somewhat somewhat facetious but somewhat just have a good discussion about the hawks and the calves so that that was on my list wasn't atlanta specific necessarily i really liked the murray trade when they made it and every day i've stared at it and I've like, it's slightly less because I just don't know what your end game is. If your best two players are guards and they're going to have to pay Murray an incredible amount of money two years from now. And then it's like, these are our two highest paid guys, Trey Young and DeJounte Murray. Like, where am I going with that? And what's the success rate in the history of the league,

other than Steph and Clay, where it can actually win that? And what's the success rate in the history of the league other than Steph and Clay? Where it can actually win a finals if those are my, my two best guys. I just, I'm not against the trade. I'm not saying like they shouldn't have done it because whatever. Um, but I keep coming back to that. Just like, what is, I, I think history matters. We have a lot of role models and things to look at at this point. The league's been around for 76 years.

So it's like, are you the Hornacek KJ sons? Is that your ceiling? Like what's the ceiling? Well, if they, if the Hawks hit big with this iteration, it's going to be in part because Deandre Hunter lives up to the hype as the

sort of apex defensive wing and secondary ball handler that they drafted it to be. And I love a Congo. I think the Congo is going to make a leap this year and be really good. But yeah, I didn't really like the Murray trade for them when it happened. I thought it was too big of a risk. And then the Cavs made an even bigger bet on Donovan Mitchell.

And I liked it better for them. And the Hawks fans would justifiably say to you, wait a second, this other mid-rung team just gave up everything for a guard to pair with their other guard. And you're praising it. We gave up a little bit less to get an actual, another all-star to pair with our other all-star guard.

And you didn't love it. I didn't, I liked didn't i like that trade better for the spurs than i did the hawks um and and my response was just people the same thing we all said about the calves and why we like the trade of mitchell for them better than we would have for the knicks they have a ready-made good team sitting there and the hawks just have less certainty around those two guys which is why i keep coming back to the role players having to kind of make a leap. But we'll see. I mean, the Hawks are going to be good.

I just don't know how good. So again, two of these teams are in the play-in tournament. If you're asking me to pick the top six in the East, I know Philly, Boston, Milwaukee. I'm going Toronto. Me too. That's four. It's hard to bet against Miami. I think it's hard to bet against Brooklyn.

They have a shitload of talent. But, you know. And then we're up to six right there. That's it. And Atlanta and Cleveland are in the play-in tournament. And those may be my picks to make the play-in tournament. All right. We're going to take another break.

All right. You owe me another Are We Sure. Okay, let me see. Okay, here's one. Are we sure Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green retire together as Warriors? Or just say all retire as Warriors, because retire together, I guess, implies the same year.

Are we sure they all retire as Warriors? And not some fake one day contract kind of thing? They all are one team career guys. It's a great one. I think this Draymond situation in a contract year as a declining offensive player, but it's still important playoff player. Who's going to expect to be compensated properly, who might have more value to an up and coming team than he does for this team. At some point you got to make choices. We've seen it over the course of history in the league where teams at some point are like,

we can't just pay everybody, you know, 30 million a year or whatever it was in 1986. And I do wonder if he's going to, I wonder how it's going to go. I had as an, are we sure, are we sure he's not going to be a distraction this year? And I don't mean that in like a super insulting way. I just mean it as like, he's in a contract year. He's got a podcast. He's very open about his life, his feelings, all that stuff. And the word's culture is team, team, team, team, team, right? But now you're in a situation where he's got one more big contract in him. And I just don't know how it's going to play out. But to answer your question,

I am not sure. And if you gave me a bet, do all three of those guys retire as warriors, I would say no. I would say the history of the league would say no. So, so to be clear, Steph, Steph, yes. And clay make $95 million combined next year,

which would be clay's clay's free agent year or two, unless he's extended pool is going tole's looking at the Tyler Hero contract today and saying, okay. Like that benchmark. Wiggins. They have to keep Wiggins. He can't be in trades. He was the

number two reason that they won the title. And there's only a handful of guys like him who can guard the type of guys that he can guard and bring all the things to the table that he brings to the table. So if you're starting from scratch, I feel like Wiggins is the second most important asset on the team, as crazy as that sounds.

Wiseman has one more year after this one left on his rookie deal. But then they can push it forward, right? And then it becomes that weird. That's the last year. It's $12.1 million already in year four. Kaminga's up to six that year. Moody's at four.

Those guys are going to get expensive sooner rather than later. Are they going to pay all those guys? I don't know. Well, Moody, there's a lot of Moody buzz right now. And Moody might be the one that could be like a $20 million a year guy with his next contract. But the Draymond one is so fascinating because you mentioned about he might have value to an up-and-coming team as a culture guy,

mentor, deep defense first, toughness playmaker. Well, so it's funny because years ago when Draymond started to become a star, there was all this debate about is he really a star or is he – could he actually be this guy outside an ecosystem that has the two greatest shooters in the history of the basketball and people in history of basketball and people used to actually specifically say put him on the pistons and like he's dribble handoffing to not steph curry and not clay thompson and he's doing all the dream on stuff but the talent around him is lesser what does he look like there and i just as a fan and i'm a huge dream on fan always i would be just fascinated to see how that would look and it's a shame because we're talking about a dream on that's probably too old now to or would be too old in this scenario to really really make it sing but i always thought my response to that was always hell yeah he'd make it work like yeah it wouldn't be as easy it wouldn't be as prolific but you put him on portland

with peak dame you put him in i think his skills absolutely translate to lesser players and would elevate those players. It would be fascinating to just see it though, because he got criticized as sort of a, a product of the warriors and not a star player in his own right. And I always thought that that sold him short. A hundred percent agree. I just wonder what his next three to four years look like.

I keep going back to the Ben Wallace contract that the bulls signed. We got Ben Wallace and they got Ben Wallace a year too late, right? Where he was this incredible athlete, intangibles guy, should have been the 2004 finals MVP. And I think was the best player in that entire playoffs. And then all of a sudden the Bulls, he wasn't Ben Wallace anymore. And I think for these intangible guys that you lose a little bit, it's a lot when you don't have any offense to fall back on. So I don't know how that plays out, but I do think for a team like Detroit, maybe even a team like Atlanta,

a team that recognizes stuff that he's good at, he might be worth way more money than Golden State wants to pay. I just wonder how he's going to handle it during the year because it's going to be a respect thing for him and it should be. He's won four titles with them and his attitude is going to be, I'm Jeremiah Green, take care of me. Oh, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. Where's my contract? He should. I've won you four rings. Where's my contract? have new contracts and they, they reached a point at which they recognize that their salary is going to flatten out or get a little bit lower. If that's the case, the prior salary still is sort of the defining prior that matters in those talks. So like Draymond makes $26 million, Clay makes 43. Why is it not Clay? The one we're talking about as maybe he's the one they decide not to decide not to pony up for.

Is it just because of the timing that Draymond is a more urgent, soon issue for them? Timing. Or is it just because you can't separate the Splash Brothers? He's culturally just too – to me, as a fan, as a person who loves the NBA, loves basketball, you want those three guys to be joined at the hip forever, don't you? Or do you want to see the opposite? Like, let's see one of these guys in unfamiliar water. I think Klay, it's a slightly different level than Draymond

because of the career connection. Not that Draymond doesn't have his own career connection, but just that Klay and Steph thing. Hard to imagine either of them ever not being on the Warriors but with that said there was the ramp us I think you and I both know that that was a little

more serious than maybe it came out Curry finally acknowledged it they definitely kicked the tires pretty hard I think Lakob was driving it and I think Clay would have been the one in the trade I'm not reporting that I'm just doing it by deduction who's in that trade I don't think it would have been the one in the trade. I'm not reporting that. I'm just, I'm doing it by deduction. Who's in that trade? I don't think it would have been Wiggins. And it, if you're going to trade for Durant, it had to have been Draymond, Wiggins, or Clay had to be in the trade. You couldn't have patched it together any other way. And I just think,

and maybe that's why they never seriously pursued it because that would have been you can't trade for duran give up wiggins and all the other stuff you know if you're trying to win the title i assumed it was wiggins but i really again i just assumed i i have no inside info i'm guessing i did reporting around this and i don't even remember if i got that far i don't think it ever got too serious where they, cause I think everybody was just trying to calm down Lake up for like three weeks. Settle down, Joe.

We're good. That's interesting. I mean, yeah, it's gotta be someone it's gotta be, it's gotta be one of those salaries and it's obviously never going to be stuff. How good do you think?

What's your, what's your temperature take on the warriors? This, this, I mean, regular season is one thing cause they're going to pace themselves, How good do you think? What's your temperature take on the Warriors? I mean, regular season is one thing because they're going to pace themselves, but this season season, what's your temperature take

generally? Repeat chances. That 42 win projection was absurd. Oh, I think even Kevin Pelton. Yeah, look, the engine spat that out. Yeah, yeah. Because it doesn't factor in a whole bunch of things, including Clay a year removed from coming back and Draymond in a contract year.

Draymond could be awesome this year, for all we know. I think Moody's going to be a big piece of this season. I think you can kind of tell when you talk to different people affiliated with the team. And even like last year in the playoffs, like they, remember remember what was the playoff game? They just threw him into. And, and he just, it was like when you throw your kid in the, in the pool and like, you got to learn how to swim, buddy. You just throw them in and they

kind of thrash around and they, and they swim. They did that with Moody. Yeah. Conference finals against Dallas. He was a part of their rotation and did well enough that I was surprised he was not part of their rotation against Boston. I think Moody is that's probably why they're not freaking out about Gary Payton, but I just the infrastructure, the chemistry, the cohesion. Curry's

just taking a victory lap of being just one of the all-time greats now. He's not he'll be better this year. What's he Steph Curry's going to slack off. I don't see how that team doesn't go at least 52 and 30. Oh, I think they're going to be awesome. Whether they go higher,

right? Whether they, it's just a matter of how much do they care about the regular season? How much do they breast their guys? Cause I think all the attention is on Wiseman. Wiseman's the X factor. Wiseman's going to make them better. And if Wiseman plays,

he'll make them better if he plays well, but it's Wiseman, Moody, Kaminga. You mentioned clay year two removed from the catastrophic injuries. I think also Wiggins, it, there's a learning curve to playing around Stefan Draymond and clay.

And last year was the first year he really got to play around all those guys together. He's got that under his belt on the biggest stages. He just understands and feels it a little better. And got better as the playoffs went along. And I thought was really good in the last half of the finals. There takes some figuring out of like, when do I cut? When do I crash the boards?

Who does what? When? And he got all that. And we were going to do a segment on NBA today. And then we scrapped it because of some scandal or one of the many scandals broke that day and we were going to do kind of over-unders on Curry's scoring average and I was like guys you can just pencil me for the over on everything because I think Steph's going to have a monster year last year sneakily 25 and a half a game which for Steph is actually low he was 32 the year before. 44% from the field,

38 from three, 52.7 from two. I think he's blowing all those away this year. Coming off the championship, coming off like, oh yeah, I'm the finals MVP now. I think he's going to have a monster year. I could not agree more. And the other thing, they operate a little like a high school team with all these young guys, right? So they're going to be able to give rest in ways like where I would say the scoring average thing would make me nervous is they're going to have games where they're up 30 and Curry plays 20 minutes, you know, and, and, or there's going to be games where they're just like, Oh, we're playing Utah tonight. Everybody's off. Let's go with the young guys and see what happens. I think there will be some of that, but I'm all in on that team. I, to me, it's Milwaukee, Golden State. And then we go to the level of now

I get excited for Philly and Denver, and then it drops a little bit. I get excited for Toronto and then Boston's the X factor, depending on the coach. I just, I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen with the Celtics when we've never seen that guy coach a game. So I don't know if you have any, are we sure is left? Do you want to throw at me? But you just mentioned a whole lot of teams, whole lot of teams. I do have a couple. Are we sure as yet?

Well, who did I mention? But you didn't mention the Clippers and we haven't really talked about the Clippers. So I don't know if any of your, are we sure is are about them, but I'm curious that you just went through that litany of top teams and they were not on the tip of your tongue. I just want to see it. Show me it for a month. Okay. Haven't seen Kawhi on a basketball court in a year and a half. Paul George, how many times has he been under the knife at this point? John Walls has played basketball in two years. Everyone's acting like they signed Oscar Robertson in 1970. It's like, oh my God, now that we got John Walls.

John Walls didn't play basketball for two years. Remember when the Warriors signed Cousins and it like broke the internet? Like five All-Stars, DeMarcus Cousins. Like guys, guys, I mean, it's a good story, but. Also, they don't pass my, you know, I have the, you can't have too many guys rule. The kind of who's going to be happy on this team. They got like 12 guys who think they're going to play.

I also valued Hartenstein. I thought he was good for them. He was going to be good in the Knicks. The Knicks, all my Knicks fans this year. I love that Hartenstein didn't realize he was good. Hartenstein's good. It's a good role player. But I just, I need to see it with Kawhi.

Kawhi, what's the total number of games he's played in the last five years? It's like 180? Not counting playoffs? Something like that. He played nine with the Spurs. Played zero last year.

Then the other years, he was like at like 50, 60, something like that. I just want to see it. I want to see it for a month and then I'm willing to weigh in. But I'm not going to be like, oh, Clippers are going to make the finals.

How could anyone say that? Not to mention their history. Wow. Where do you stand? I think I might pick them to make the finals. That's fine. I'm not against it. I'm just,

I just want to see it. I'm going to go to some games and then I'll be like, okay, they look good. I'm ready to. They and the Warriors to me, I don't want to say they're the class of the West because I think Denver's going to be right there with them.

Yep. But I'm really confident in the Clippers. It's just if they're healthy. But you can say that about any team. But obviously, this team's guys were not healthy last year. And I have a feeling one of your other R.B. Shores is going to touch on a team we haven't talked about yet. So why don't you go ahead and do that?

I have the Kawhi stat for you. Last five seasons, how many minutes do you think he played regular season? Total minutes combined five seasons combined minutes, including his last Spurs season. Four thousand

eight hundred and seventy two. Oh, you went low. It's fifty,800 is the answer. I was going to say, yeah, okay. I went a little lower at the last minute. I was going to start with a five, but I went lower. So if the Clips are going to be a title contender this year, that's 62 games for Kawhi playing 34 minutes a game. It's 2,000 minutes.

Just pointing it out. No, it's fair. It's 2,000 minutes. Just pointing it out. No, it's fair. It's fair. And I'm building into my clips optimism. Kawhi and PG are going to play 110 games combined. That's all. And we've seen before that maybe they suffer some chemistry development issues because of how often they sit and how they stagger them so that one plays, the other doesn't. I mean, we'll see.

All these are fair questions. I have an are we sure that's going to put an absolute smile on your face. I can't wait. Are we sure Jokic can't win three straight MVPs? I'm pretty sure. I don't think he's going to win three straight MVPs. Let's talk it out. People just hate to give it to the same guy over and over again.

That's why Giannis wasn't going to win last year. Let's talk it out. What if they're a one seed? What if they go like 60 and 22? And what if all of his stats and everything else, what if he's like 15% better than he was last year somehow? All of that is very possible. Yeah, their team's way better.

He was playing with the freaking Washington Generals last year. Oh, they're absolutely loaded, loaded for bear. And to your point about his numbers, I just don't think people realize the kind of statistical territory he's going to be in. If he puts up five more seasons that are like 90% of what he did last season, you're into absolutely bonkers historical territory. No, it's almost like we almost have to split the errors and just go 2012 pre. Basically, the year that we started working together, 12-13, when

Curry starts hitting threes, you almost have to the league stats should just be different from that point on. Denver right now, their over-under is 50.5. They are 20-1 to win the title, which I think are the

single best title ads. Look at the rotation. Murray, Caldwell Pope, Porter Jr. for Southie, Gordon Jokic, Bones off the bench, the immortal Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, who was

in a bunch of really big games over the course of the last couple of years. Little ish Smith accent action. And they'll have one trade to make. They still have a lot of capital. That's the thing. They never really they didn't really give up that much for Gordon. I still think they have the means to go get one more guy if they need to.

You know what I mean? So I have high expectations for them. I'm not sure. I'm looking it up now. I think they're out, I have high expectations for them. I'm not sure. I'm looking at them now. I think they're out of picks to trade as of now. Um, cause they owe, they owe a couple of random ones.

Like they traded one to OKC. Uh, and they can do those unprotected from five years from now. They can play that game, but either way. Yeah. They're loaded. And,

but who are we? You're going to notice off the top of your head. Cause you're obnoxiously good at this kind of stuff. But either way, yeah, they're loaded. You're going to notice off the top of your head because you're obnoxiously good at this kind of stuff. Is Bird the last one to win three straight? Yeah. I think Bird might be the only one to win three straight. I'm not even positive Jordan did that. And the funny thing is... If Bird is the last one, then Michael never did.

The funniest thing is Bird's season after the three was the best of the four seasons. That was like his craziest season. Michael got jobbed by Barkley and Malone on the back end of each three-peat, right? Or in the middle of... Yeah. Malone was in the middle of the second three-peat. No, the 96, 97, 98, he should have won three straight MVPs by any calculation. It's actually insane. Wilt won three straight. I'm looking it up now. Wilt won three straight MVPs by any calculation. It's actually insane.

Wilt won three straight. I'm looking it up now. Wilt won three straight in the 60s. Kareem, I don't see three straight for Kareem. Russell won three straight. 61-63. Players voted back then. What do you have? Any more are we sure?

Are we sure that we should be shorting the Nets? We're not. I'm not shorting the Nets. There's this, look, there's a Simmons variable that we don't need to talk about it, but there is a world where he's the Simmons from two years ago. And that's a really interesting piece to put in with KD and Kyrie and a contract here. There's also a world where

they're a complete disaster. So 50 and a half, is there a line? I think I'm not going to let you know, you're not, you're going to do this on a podcast. No, no. Here's my advice. Anyone who bets on that should check into Gambler's Anonymous and really reconcile their problems. To go into this net season and be like, I know what's going to happen. Here's my money. That's insane.

Durant doesn't know what's going to happen. Steve Dash doesn't know. Nobody knows. There's no way to predict any piece of this net season. So I would not do that. I listed them as one of my five toughest lines that I would fake have to bet on. And I just ended up saying the downside scenarios outnumber the upside scenarios. Yeah. And they outpace them in terms of severity too. So I would go under. But yeah, it's obviously one that you just run as fast away from as you can.

My favorite is that, well, Kyrie's in a contract here, so he'll have something to play for. It's like, well, we kind of saw that in Boston and it didn't work. Yeah. going to play for it's like well we kind of saw that in boston and it didn't work yeah yeah you went all the way out on kairi before everybody else did that's one that's one way in which your boston uh fandom i think paid off for you is you were like i don't want i just saw it i know what i saw and all of the rest of us were kind of like well you know he's still kairi he's very talented this and that and the other thing. And you went all the way out ahead of everybody. Well, we were hearing the same stuff from the Celtics side.

I was watching with my own eyes. And his playoff series was a complete travesty. I was there. I mean, I was at the games. It was a complete travesty. And I still don't think he gets enough credit for after the 16 finals, which for better or worse, it always has to be mentioned in the first sentence with him. He doesn't get enough credit for what happened from 18 to 22 with him in the playoffs.

He was bad in the Boston series last year. He wasn't an impactful player. He was healthy. What was his excuse? Durant was weirdly off that whole series. I don't know how much to read into that, but that was a really weird series. But I'm saying you went out like you slammed the Kyrie door shut. A lot of us pulled it a little ajar and had the butts and the caveats and new system and new scenarios.

And you were just like, I'm shut. I locked it. I put dynamite in front of it and just detonated it just in case like i'm just it's it's shut and you never reopened it you're still not reopening it i don't think i was like talking no it's not open i was like jamie lee curtis and the the last the halloween remake two years ago when she had the basement with all the contraptions in it in case michael came back. That's how I felt. I have some quickies to throw at you before we go.

Go. Are we sure Phoenix didn't blow this? Yes or no? I'm sure Phoenix didn't blow this. I mean, they were unbelievable last year. They had a two-year window to try to win a title, and is it over? I think your window question about Boston

is more apt to apply to Phoenix. I think this team now has reached the point where they need to make a trade to contend with the very best to beat, to win four playoff series. I think they need to make a trade. Um, are we sure Charlotte isn't the worst team in the East? I, I, I said it before, man. I, well, yes, I I'm sure because I think Indiana is going to be the worst team in the East but I think one or both of Orlando and Detroit finishes with a better record than one or both of Washington and Charlotte

I think Charlotte is super thin like super thin paper thin after their top four guys I would be very worried if I were a Charlotte fan very very worried are we sure a Charlotte fan. Very, very worried. Are we sure that four years for $130 million for Tyler Harrow wasn't a Pantheon-level horrible deal?

Yeah, I'm sure. And I don't want to bore your listeners with the caps going up and every rookie extension is going to be fine and stuff. But I think those things are generally true. Okay, so throw out the numbers. At worst, that's just not damaging. Are we sure Sacramento's not going to make the playoffs? Oh, playoffs.

I guess once you're in the play-in, you have a shot. You have a shot. A decent shot. So I'm not sure that they're not going to make the playoffs. I think they're penciled in as 11th, and I think they're much closer to being a 500. I think they're penciled in as 11th. And I think they're much closer to being a 500 team than a 32 win team. All they

need is one team above them to falter a little bit. And then Fox and Sabonis have a huge game and you're playing for a playoff berth. I think it's totally in play for them. And I'll tell you what, the Mariners thing is an interesting late game plot twist for the Kings because the Mariners are off the schneid,

and the Kings are by themselves now as the longest route. Oh, yeah, you're right. I think the Keegan Murray pick might actually be really good, and I think he might be good right away. But great in summer league. I am bullish on their league pass potential. So who do they leapfrog to get out of 11th? Your common answers would be Lakers or Portland, maybe New Orleans.

I don't know who you... I heard your pod with Beck, and I think we have the same reservations about Portland. It just seems kind of aimless. I don't really fully understand what the goal is with that team. It's, it's basically a more advanced version of the conversation we're having about Atlanta where it's like, where are you going? If your second best guy is Simons and your third best guy is Grant.

I don't, to me, that's, I think they'd be lucky to make the plan. Here's the case for Portland. That was made to me by an a vested person who listened to that podcast okay dame turned when aldridge bolted and wes matthews was gone patum was gone dame turned alfa rukamunu and moe Harkless and Yusuf Nurkic or blah blah blah

into a 50 win team way weaker league though weaker league fine and now we've surrounded him with we're not deep backup center is a problem we got some question marks we realize that but now we've turned

those guys into like guys who can make plays off the dribble when Dame passes them the ball. Younger guys, more athletic guys. Blah, blah, blah. For the people listening, Zach on the pod with Beck made the point that Simons' catch-and-shoot stats

are actually like Clay Thompson-esque. I used the word blah multiple times to describe Portland blah. And by blah, I just meant like 500 ish. And I just don't really see anything that sexy about it. And blah did not go over well in Portland. No,

I'll, I'll say it too. I think they're going to be blah. Before we go, I just want to read you these odds. Are we sure these are the right odds? Okay. This is on FanDuel for the Southwest division.

Memphis is plus 105. So basically even odds. Dallas is plus 145. And New Orleans is plus 350. Should New Orleans be that far away from those other two teams to win that division? Because I personally do not think they should. Hell no. I'm really high on the Pelicans.

Me too. A lot of how much proximity you want between those three odds depends on how many games Jaron Jackson Jr. misses. Because I do think there's just something in the water in Memphis where all these other teams get tired and bored in the regular season. And Memphis is just coming in every night like, oh yeah, we get to play. We get to play.

We're excited to play. We're taking it to you. And in the regular season, that really, really matters. Yeah, the Jackson thing really concerns me. Anytime they put the 8 to 12, 6 to 8, 10 to 12, it's always like four weeks longer. I've heard some optimism, burbling optimism, nothing official, nothing close to official that it might be. Let's just say not on the long side. Okay, good.

Of the timetable, but it's concerning. And I think New Orleans is like a 48-ish win team. It's certainly one of the high ceiling teams we have because there's a world where they come in with Zion and it just looks really good. And people are like, wow, I forgot how good Zion was. And oh my God, look at these other guys. Jesus, Herb Jones. And it just goes. One of my, are we sure is that I deleted because I thought it was too facetious and unintentionally inflammatory because I don't really believe, I want to be clear. I don't

really believe the underlying premise of it, but I wanted to throw it out. He was, are we sure Zion is worth the hype? It's a good one. I will say, the stuff he was doing two years ago was absolutely electric, so I would say yes. I'm pretty sure. He was some combination of Shaq

and Bo Jackson two years ago. Like there was just nothing you could do with that guy around the basket. So my answer was as an offensive force, absolutely worth the hype. He still might be that guy. If he's that guy. Yeah,

he's worth the hype. Yeah. So I think, I think that division's wide open. I was surprised that New Orleans was considered like almost an afterthought. I feel like it's, it's a battle between those three. All right, we're ending the Are We Sure?

I am going to be on your podcast at the end of the week and we'll do another gimmick. We left a lot of stuff on the table. It was great to see you, my friend. Thanks for coming on. Will I see you at Staples opening week of the season?

I think you will. Yes. What is the Clippers? Who are they playing? I think it's LA-LA opening week. I think the Lakers open in Golden State and then they come back for L.A. L.A. I think.

I think. I haven't checked. One of the things from last spring was like the realization that, oh yeah, live basketball is fucking awesome. Yeah, it's a good time. Going to those playoff games again, it's like, this is great.

I'm having a great time. I love going to live basketball. Please have more games. All right, Zach, I'll see you later in the week. Thanks, buddy. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Zach Lowe. Thanks to Kyle Crane for producing. Thanks to Dylan Berkey

and Steve Cerruti as well, who stayed with the podcast even after Zach forgot to mention Franz Wagner. I will be back on this feed on Thursday unless I'm dead from bronchitis. We'll find out. It's day six for me being sick.

Probably not a good sign. This could be it. Look, I had a great run. Thanks for everything. Thanks for listening. And hopefully you see me on Thursday.