The Bill Simmons Podcast - Burrow’s Uh-Oh, Best NBA Rookies, Steelers-Browns, and Million-Dollar Picks With Mallory Rubin, Danny Kelly, and J. Kyle Mann

Episode Date: November 17, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Mallory Rubin to react to the Ravens' 34-20 win over the Bengals on 'TNF', Joe Burrow leaving the game with a wrist injury, Mark Andrews sustaining an ankle inju...ry, AFC playoff speculation, and more (1:34), before Bill talks with Danny Kelly about the weekend's slate of NFL games and makes the Million-Dollar Picks for Week 11 (35:47). Finally, Bill is joined by J. Kyle Mann to discuss his NBA Rookie Rankings as they run through the top 15 rookies so far this season (1:10:30). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Mallory Rubin, Danny Kelly, and J. Kyle Mann Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Coming up, hot off the press football action, more football, million dollar picks, NBA rookies. Next, it's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like
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Starting point is 00:01:16 This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gangs here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that are when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious.
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Starting point is 00:02:28 We have another one coming on Monday, next Monday, as part of, how much money did that movie make, Month? It's a movie from the 21st century. That's your hint. I'll even, I'll give you the decade, the 2000s. So that's your hint for that one.
Starting point is 00:02:44 Coming up on this podcast, we're going to talk some football off the top. Great Thursday night matchup. Bengals, Ravens, big AFC North ramifications. So we had to bring the mother of dragons, Mallory Rubin on. Big Ravens fan to break down what we saw. And then Danny Kelly came on to help me
Starting point is 00:03:04 with million dollar picks and go through the week 11 games. We came up with some good ones and you know, that should have been enough of a podcast, but now, cause we had to bring on Jay Kyle, man, he did NBA rookie rankings on the ringer.com and we zipped through all of them and talked about our favorite rookies, things we liked guys who might move. This is a, this is a very fun basketball football podcast. I think we got to bring in our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this part of the podcast. It is almost 9 o'clock Thursday night. The Mother of Dragons, Mally Rubin, is here.
Starting point is 00:03:55 Diehard Ravens fan from The Ringer. We thought this Ravens-Bengals game that happened tonight would be memorable in some way. It became memorable in a lot of ways. Most of all, Joe Burrow going down and the Amazon crew just being kind of like nonchalantly handling the thing. It's like, the Bengals season is on fire, guys.
Starting point is 00:04:15 What's happening? That was weird. More time spent on the drones hovering over the stadium than on Burrow's injury. Hey, look at that drone, Kirk. And then Lamar's limping around and such a weird game. But I got to,
Starting point is 00:04:28 even though you're a Ravens fan, I got to start with the Bengals. Yeah. Their season might be over because they're five and five, all five losses in the conference. They've lost twice to you. And I don't really see,
Starting point is 00:04:42 you know, maybe they can get a seventh seed, but this is, the AFC is too hard right now. Right now, they're one 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. They are the ninth team in the AFC. So what a weird night for you because you're going into tonight thinking we got to beat the Bengals. We got to send their seasons getting sideways. And it happens. But we also end up losing, you know, one of the most fun players to watch in the league. It's obviously just a shitty situation. And this was like a classic Thursday night football injury doom fest all around. Just a total debacle. You can go more than like seemingly four snaps without somebody getting hurt. And Burrow's hand looked like a inflatable balloon, like a balloon animal when they zoomed in on it.
Starting point is 00:05:23 I mean, this was bizarre because it became apparent over the course of the halftime stretch in the third quarter, he got hurt in the second quarter, that he was injured before the game because there was this mystery footage of him emerging from the team plane with a brace on
Starting point is 00:05:40 his wrist. It wasn't a mystery. But he wasn't on the injury report. But he wasn't on the injury report. The Bengals' Twitter feed tweeted out the clip of them getting off the bus and there's Burrow with like something you would have if you had...
Starting point is 00:05:52 What's that thing you have? Carpal tunnel. Yeah, the carpal tunnel. Like that giant brace on his throwing hand. Got these right here. Never have them more than a couple feet away.
Starting point is 00:06:01 You never know. And by the way, that video I don't think mentioned during the Amazon. I think the NFL was like, cut that. But this was, I mean,
Starting point is 00:06:09 there's so many different ramifications here, but there's also, you know, gambling and legalized gambling and you have to report injuries and stuff like that. I would say
Starting point is 00:06:17 Burrow having an injured right hand and wrist heading into the game, not being reported. Yeah. I think they're going to get fined. This is going to be a thing. It's a very bizarre situation.
Starting point is 00:06:28 I'll be curious. We're recording this immediately after the game, so we haven't heard the postgame pressers or any of the updates on not only his status, but on maybe what his
Starting point is 00:06:37 pregame status was. So I'm sure more will come out soon and there will be a little bit of additional clarity. But I'll be fascinated to see what the team has to say about the extent of what he was dealing with previously and maybe it was minor
Starting point is 00:06:48 and then something really was like exacerbated during the course of play because he seemed to get there was that but before the touchdown in which he like emerged grimacing and like clearly badly uh badly badly hurt there was the clowny contact on the prior play. Maybe something was exacerbated there that had just been sort of like a dull, faint thing. Who knows? All we could do is speculate because they didn't say anything about the injuries. It's very strange.
Starting point is 00:07:13 And then that shot, of course, of him not only grimacing on the touchdown throw, but attempting to throw on the sideline, unable to grip the football. And that was it. I mean, that was it. And Jake Browning came in and played pretty well in the year of the football. And that was it. I mean, it was that was it. And Jake Browning came in and played like pretty well in the year of the backup. I mean, the year of the backup QB is one
Starting point is 00:07:31 of the storylines of the league. But yeah, like it's Joe Burrow. I mean, this is one of the five best quarterbacks in football. They already had gotten off to a really slow start. Obviously, his calf injury at the beginning of the year was part of why he got off to a slower start. And it felt like they were finally beyond that and he was healthy and playing well so it's just like a devastating thing for their season but of a piece and of of trend on trend with this larger story of the sport where like so many teams are reliant on backup quarterbacks now in week 11. I mean, it's the Josh Dobbs assance, but not for everyone. It's crazy. And it killed one of my three fantasy
Starting point is 00:08:09 teams, which is fine. Fantasy. It's not real. You just keep telling yourself it's not real. Yeah, I mean, from a Baltimore standpoint, this is a sneaky game the whole week. It's a Thursday night or you just never know. It's just like shaking the snow globe. The line.
Starting point is 00:08:25 Coming off a terrible loss. Yeah. Coming off a bad loss. So maybe that's a decent sign. But then Cincy. So the line was three and a half. And I was going to bet the Baltimore when it got to three because there was so much Cincy money. I was like, oh, the Sharps are going to come on Baltimore. The line moved to four as we got closer to game time, which makes me wonder if some of this Burrow stuff had kind of trickled out because the, the, the, since he was a huge public team all week and then all of a sudden there was this Baltimore surge of money. So I thought that was weird. I think from a Raven standpoint, you know, when I said, I know you weren't delighted that
Starting point is 00:09:04 Joe Burrow got hurt, but you're delighted from the position that Baltimore is in now, where they are eight and three. You have Casey playing Philly on Monday night. You have Cleveland with Deshaun out for the year. Now you have one of the two healthy starting quarterbacks in the division. The other one is Kenny Pickett, who doesn't play well for 50 minutes each game. Kenny Pickett on the most fortunate team in all of sports. The one score win, Pittsburgh Steelers. How are they doing it?
Starting point is 00:09:36 I just can't believe it. It's driving me absolutely crazy to watch. I mean, Lamar got hurt in this game too, though. Like, it was a huge relief. I texted you in all caps, KILL ME when he got hurt in this game too, though. It was a huge relief. I texted you in all caps, KILL ME when he got hurt. I was having heart palpitations. Mark Andrews had already gone out hurt.
Starting point is 00:09:52 Just felt like it was going to be one of those doomed nights for the team. And he came back. He played really well. He had a great game. They finally, late, late, late, toward the end, garbage time, hit a deep ball,
Starting point is 00:10:06 51-yard bomb to Odell. Yeah. The failure to hit these passes. Who then got hurt. Who then got hurt on that play. The injury list mounted,
Starting point is 00:10:15 even in victory. The failure to get the deep ball going had been one of the storylines of the year amid a broadly very successful and exciting season for Lamar
Starting point is 00:10:22 and the offense and the team at large. But, like, Lamar, you could tell he was ginger on the ankle all game. So hopefully he'll be okay. Hopefully he's just got to get like fully healed and well, but it was, it was scary. Every snap that he took the rest of the game, sliding on the turf, falling. Yeah. It was like hard. It clearly seemed difficult to make like a really hard, sharp cut. Yeah yeah in terms of the overall state of play i mean eight and three it's hard not to be thrilled i thought that even after the genuinely dismaying browns game and the third fourth quarter collapse and totally inexplicable loss of the season i mean
Starting point is 00:10:59 you could make the case and i think you could make it pretty easily and convincingly that they should be undefeated at this point in the season. There's really no reason they should have lost the three games that they did. I mean, it's a crapshoot season. The parity is extreme. A lot of teams have real flaws. I think they're a legitimate Super Bowl contender in a really weak and kind of muddied field. But a lot of teams are still contenders. And like to your point about whether the Bengals are totally out of it, what was one of the
Starting point is 00:11:29 most shocking things for all of us to see watching week 10? Like you're looking at the in the hunt graphics with the Raiders on there. That's just a yeah, that's just a bizarre place to be in this season. So obviously they're not out of it yet. If Burrow's done for the year, though, I mean, that's a wrap on their championship hopes. It has to be. He's too important. Whatever the injury was, I don't think that's
Starting point is 00:11:52 an injury that's going to be better 10 days from now. If it's like a strained ligament in his wrist. A wrist injury on your throwing hand seems unlikely to heal quickly, but I don't know. It seems like he popped something. So in the AFC, you have Baltimore, KC, Miami,
Starting point is 00:12:07 Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. All six wins are better. Buffalo, who seemed headed toward being dead on Monday night after blowing that terrible Denver game. They are now tied for the seventh seed with Houston,
Starting point is 00:12:21 a team that, you know, I think the over-under of them was like four and a half. But your team, the rest of the way, you got the Chargers, you know, I think the over-under of them was like four and a half, but your team, the rest of the way, you got the Chargers, get a bye week, home Rams at Jacksonville, at San Francisco, home Miami, home Pittsburgh. That's a really hard final stretch. A lot of those games are in prime time. So they've got some really visible high-profile matchups. And those final couple games in the primetime slate, the Jacksonville and Niners games,
Starting point is 00:12:52 which are Sunday night football and Monday night football, respectively, those are both road games. So that's no picnic. That said, I feel very confident that they will, at this point, make the playoffs. I don't see how I couldn't be confident in that. Lamar's playing wonderfully. Zay Flowers is electric.
Starting point is 00:13:07 This is the connection that I've been dreaming of. I can't lie to you and say that Mark Andrews getting injured, if that's a bad ankle injury and a lasting one, is not a genuine wrench in their offense. He's Lamar's, even with everything that's been developing between Lamar and Odell Beckham, which has been really fun to watch, and even with everything that's been developing between Lamar and Odell Beckham which has been really fun to watch and even with everything that's been developing between Lamar
Starting point is 00:13:30 and Zay Flowers in his rookie season and he's been sensational Andrews is the guy right like he's the heartbeat of the offense he's the safety blanket he's the the main the main guy that he's that Lamar is going to build like a rhythm and a routine with so if he's out it fundamentally alters what they're going to do. But then you have the fact that the team is so well-rounded. The Mike McDonald defense continues to impress. They're generating a pass rush. Kyle Hamilton is
Starting point is 00:13:53 like, other than Lamar and Zay Flowers, my favorite player to watch on the team right now. He's turning into a football nerd hero. How about when he jumped off the line of scrimmage today and broke up that third down pass? That was impressive. You just say the words Kyle Hamilton to Ben Solak
Starting point is 00:14:09 and you clear out for 90 minutes. Right. You just let him go. Right. So if you're talking winners and losers from this game, Pittsburgh, the Michael Myers Steelers, who are at six and three somehow, none of us understand it.
Starting point is 00:14:24 Later in the podcast, I brought Danny Kelly on to do million dollar picks and we picked Cleveland over Pittsburgh. So I'm sure we somehow reversed jinx them to a seventh win, but they have Cleveland this week. They still haven't played Cincy. They still have two Cincy games left. They have an Arizona game left. They have the crappy Patriots. They're at Indy, who at that point might have been packing it in. And then the last two games are at Seattle, at Baltimore. But that Baltimore game, you might be like the one seed wrapped up at that point,
Starting point is 00:14:56 or the two seed, or at least the division. I don't see how they don't get to 10 wins if it's against the backup Bengals quarterback. But doesn't this just feel like a repeat of the Vikings last year where they're going to amass an impressive record and then completely like wither away in front of our eyes in the playoffs because they're not actually that dominant of a team. And it's a deceptive record like that's not really borne out by any of the supporting evidence, either of advanced stats or our very own eyeballs. Well, so whoever wins this Cleveland Pittsburgh game now in Cleveland's got Denver, the Rams, Jacksonville, Chicago,
Starting point is 00:15:31 Houston, the Jets, and since he left. So a couple of easy ones, but it feels like Thompson Robinson is going to be playing quarterback. Right. Back up. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:40 But the Steelers will have Kenny Pickett still playing quarterback. Right. It feels like whoever wins Cleveland-Pittsburgh now is probably going to make the playoffs. And then it feels like this Texans team that everybody loves now has a legitimate chance to make it, which would be an incredible story. And they have some good wins.
Starting point is 00:15:58 Like they beat Cincinnati. They beat Pittsburgh. They beat Jacksonville. They beat New Orleans. It's not like they've cream puffed it up. So, you know, they have Arizona this week. We decided not to use that on Million Dollar Picks, but that'd be a nice little tester for them at home.
Starting point is 00:16:12 They should win. Kyler Murray is a little scary, but we'll see. And then Buffalo looming over everything else, firing their offensive coordinator. Yes. Because it was his fault. Have to keep going somewhat as the bills completely collapse the texans are like the story of the season right i mean yeah how fun is it that cj stroud is having
Starting point is 00:16:32 our our ringer colleague stephen ruiz wrote a wonderful piece this week about the stroud mvp buzz and the stroud mvp campaign being like a legit real thing. Now, of course, I am still in the Lamar Jackson is the MVP of this football season camp, but it was a compelling case. And yeah, I would recommend everybody go to the ringer.com. What a great website and give it a read because the comparisons that he's making are not to other rookies in this class. It's to like historic rookie seasons or other MVP caliber showing. So just to see if Stroud can maintain and sustain that level of success, and obviously everything that D'Amico Ryans has been doing to build that team so quickly, it's just incredible.
Starting point is 00:17:12 They're really fun to watch. The end of their schedule is like, I mean, you already mentioned Arizona, Jacksonville's hard. Denver, you know, they're rising, so who knows? The Jets? Titans? We'll see what shape the Browns are in by then. They finish against the Colts. I mean, if it comes down to that game,
Starting point is 00:17:27 you would take the Texans in that game, right? You would. You would think. You would take the quarterback. You know the Burrow injury is bad because all the AFC stuff is off Vandal right now for future bets. Because I was going to look at the division,
Starting point is 00:17:40 the Texans odds, everything's off because they're going to try to figure out what happens here. I can't think of any scenario with the hand wrist thing where he throws a pass on the sideline to see if he can do it and bends over and says, what did he say? What did he whisper to the camera? Like he's like, it's done. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:59 And then it seemed like he said it's done. Shout fuck very loudly and. Yeah. So I don't see him being back in 10 days. It didn't seem great. It didn't seem great. And then if Philly beats KC on Monday night, I don't think I'll feel great about any AFC team.
Starting point is 00:18:16 Your team has the best case to be like, feel great about us, feel great about us. Yeah. What's not to like about the Ravens? Come on, why? Blowing that Cleveland game to Deshaun Watson with a broken shoulder and a high sprained ankle and you still lost.
Starting point is 00:18:29 That made me feel not great. Don't you think it's one of those good, like you learn the lesson in the middle of the season and you know what you need to know? You've had seven of those in two years. No, this is like whenever you're really invested in a college basketball season and you're heading into the tournament,
Starting point is 00:18:44 I don't know if you feel this way, but I'm always like, I am not only content to lose in the conference tournament, I would prefer it. Let's get it out of the way now. Learn whatever lesson we need to learn and then be ready for primetime. Be ready for the main show. The point differential. I mean, it's like the Ravens blowing these games. You can kind of make the case either way about whether this is a good or a bad thing right like when you see these nuggets that are obviously like irrefutably dismaying in terms of like the company they
Starting point is 00:19:15 keep how successful those teams have gone on to be winning super bowls and how rare it is to achieve that level of success and then blow games like that. You're like, well, this is like pretty upsetting, right? You're not just not supposed to lose games like this. But at the end of the day,
Starting point is 00:19:29 like they had a point, the best point differential in football heading into the game tonight. They still do coming out of it and they're mounting leads. So the thing that they have to do is learn how to sustain them. And I thought it was interesting, especially after the Browns game, you know, the talk about like blowing the 14 point
Starting point is 00:19:45 lead in the fourth quarter. And like, is some of the shine coming off of the, oh, are we looking at another like all time Ravens defense? Rose, it's about the offense, right? Like you've got to be able to sustain drives late and keep generating first downs and moving the chains. In addition to just keeping getting points on the board,
Starting point is 00:20:09 like they've got to be able to stay on the field. Yeah. And like, yeah, I mean, the Orioles couldn't finish games once your closer went out. Like you got to finish games. The Orioles won 101 games in the regular season.
Starting point is 00:20:24 I'm glad you mentioned this. Cause I do want to take a moment to say, I know you were hoping for a Ravens loss when you asked me to come on tonight and that you wanted me to come on. Not true. To wallow in my sorrow and my pity. Who better to talk Ravens Bengals at 8.50 at night than you? I am wounded. Who are my other options?
Starting point is 00:20:41 Wounded that you never asked me to come on and celebrate the greatest and most joyous baseball season of my life. We don't need to talk about what happened in the playoffs. We don't care about baseball regular seasons. We don't care about baseball regular seasons on this podcast. Neither does Major League Baseball. Yeah. They've been proving just not to matter. It's turning to hockey.
Starting point is 00:20:59 Gunner, unanimous. Congrats. Lucky of the year. Thanks, man. That was great. Yeah, Brandon Hyde, Manager of the Year. Michael Hyas, Executive of the Year. It year. Thanks, man. That was Brandon Hyde, manager of the year. Michael Hyas, executive of the year.
Starting point is 00:21:07 It's all happening, man. Well, one other thing you have is your coach is related to just a blatant cheater. So I don't know if he'll pick up any tips before, you know, for January.
Starting point is 00:21:20 Maybe he'll get, maybe at the holidays, maybe he'll get, I'm not going to let, I'm not going to let you put this out into the ether and put this out into the world. But they're related. He's related to a coach who just got suspended for being a cheater. Has this sparked your interest in college football?
Starting point is 00:21:36 You genuinely don't partake in college football as a proposition. I'm very interested in college football. But has... I need a quarterback. I've been studying these... That's true. You are crunching draft tape. But you know where I've landed? I didn't even tell college football. But has... I need a quarterback. I've been studying these... That's true. You are crunching draft tape. But you know where I've landed?
Starting point is 00:21:47 I didn't even tell you this. Is it Drake May? He's your guy? Well, obviously, he needs to be the number one pick, but... Yeah. Well, what?
Starting point is 00:21:55 Doesn't he? So you've just moved on... You've just moved on completely from Caleb Williams. Well, I don't think we're going to get the number one pick, but I think we have a chance to get two. And I think I'd be more excited if they took Marvin Harrison than any of the remaining
Starting point is 00:22:09 quarterbacks, because like I watch all these games and everybody has. Well, I guess Baltimore does it, but most of these teams have this awesome receiver that just tilts the field and does all this stuff. And it's like he seems like one of the surest bets that have come in at the receiver position since I've known you. Yeah, he's sensational. Is he at least AJ Brown? I mean, he's a generational wide receiver prospect. So let's take him and we'll figure out a quarterback later. We'll go get somebody at some point. Maybe somebody will want to play with him. But I would rather do that than do the 50-50 coin flip with the non-short thing quarterbacks. It just can't.
Starting point is 00:22:48 If you miss that, it's just devastating. Look at the Jets right now. They missed it twice. I would rather not, frankly. I would rather not. But I'd rather you say took Harrison or the best left tackle
Starting point is 00:22:59 over a quarterback that they weren't sure of when they're talking to themselves. I would really hope that doesn't happen because I don't want to see him on the Patriots. But for you, I would be happy. I would be happy for you. It'd be great. Well, we used to kick his dad's ass all the time, so maybe
Starting point is 00:23:11 he owes us. Yeah, so it's been a fun season. What's been your other favorite thing about the football season other than the fact that Lamar is a legitimate MVP candidate? Any other favorite plots? That's obviously top of the list. It's just an absolute thrill for me
Starting point is 00:23:30 to say eat shit to everybody who doubted whether he should get that contract, including you. I'd like to say eat shit, Bill, to you right now here on this Zoom. I didn't doubt the contract. I didn't understand why nobody else was offering him the contract.
Starting point is 00:23:42 It made me suspicious. As we see, all these teams need quarterbacks. Where was Atlanta? Where was Carolina? Where were the Giants? Like, I just didn't understand it. Every team, I still can't get over, the Falcons most of all,
Starting point is 00:23:55 but every team that came out and said, yeah, we're good. And particularly with his record now against the NFC, it's just, it's so, so wonderful. I think the Lions, like, it's been wonderful. I think the Lions. It's been incredibly fun to watch the Lions. I am sort of morbidly curious always about
Starting point is 00:24:11 what Jared Goff is capable of achieving inside of a really elevated and advanced offensive Wunderkind scheme. That's been really fun to watch. I think Dobbs. It's obviously a little bit of a recency bias thing and we'll see how long it lasts but coming out of the trade deadline wondering why more teams didn't attempt to do something and then seeing dobbs play the way he
Starting point is 00:24:40 has with the like previously like on the verge of being corpse like minnesota vikings is is yeah kind of astonishing and then i think stroud which we already talked about like i watch a college a lot of college football as you know i love the draft so it's always one of the highlights of my season to track the the rookie prospects and i just thought it was actively bizarre to listen to the analysis around Stroud during draft season, particularly the anti-Ohio State bent and the volume of... Obviously, he was the second player taken. It's not like he pulled into the third round or anything. But the level of skepticism around whether he would be able to succeed as a franchise cornerstone quarterback because other Ohio State quarterbacks have busted in the NFL and also because he didn't.
Starting point is 00:25:36 And Ruiz wrote about this again, really, I thought really wonderfully in his piece this week, didn't have to do as much. Yeah. On those Buckeyes teams where Marvin Harrison Jr., your favorite player in the world, is always open. We've got to be able to evaluate quarterbacks beyond that, beyond penalizing them for their college teams being good.
Starting point is 00:25:55 That's just been an incredible thing to watch. We're never going to figure it out. What about you? What's top of your list? Mack Jones, number one. Tush Push, number two. CJ Stroud, I think think is the most fun yeah it's just like we just need quarterbacks it's like how we need good tv shows right yeah we just don't have any good tv shows although you you really like the loki season finale oh the finale was incredible it was it was so beautiful just i know you're not an mcu guy and the season overall i did not think was as successful as the first season of loki which is one of my favorite mcu things ever
Starting point is 00:26:31 but the season finale was such a masterful final act of a limited series and like the i can't i said to joanna when we when we potted about it on of R, I just can't think of an hour of the MCU that has, other than literally endgame, better rewarded and honored our investment in a character for a decade plus. It was just sublime. I loved it. Great high-concept sci-fi paired with real heart.
Starting point is 00:27:00 It was wonderful. I would try to convince you to watch it, but I know it's hopeless, so I won't bother. I just want the MCU to self-combust. Well, I mean, it's been a rough stretch. It's been a rough stretch. No, it's good for us because I think we have the best people covering it
Starting point is 00:27:17 and it's great content for us, but I just don't, just from afar, know nothing. I just don't understand some of the decisions where it's like, well, we killed this character off, but we're going to bring him back now because it's the multiverse. So it's like when you start doing stuff like that, how do I take anything seriously? It would be like if we had a whole football season, you're like the Ravens lost, but they did it because it's the multiverse and they're still alive over here. That's what the multiverse is. I know, but I just don't get it. My brain just doesn't work this way.
Starting point is 00:27:49 I would say broadly, you are revealing your sincere lack of interest in comic book storytelling as a proposition. Fair. Never read them. This is a central tenant of the comic book experience. But it's not just I think the to your point there is a risk with multiversal storytelling of feeling like the stakes are never lasting i broadly though don't think that's like a prohibitive thing with multiversal storytelling and i think that it
Starting point is 00:28:17 unlocks a lot part of what made loki so great without getting into any of the specifics is that you could take a character and have this character confront other variants of other Lokis, right? And say like, okay, the person who could teach me the most about myself is another version of me. That's like pretty interesting as a storytelling concept. Sure. It sounds great. You wouldn't like to meet another Bill out there in the multiverse? It's just not for me. You're on Earth 616. What do you think Bill Simmons is doing on Earth 838? Is he in the Illuminati? Do you know what I mean by that? Kyle does. Kyle knows. I'm a meat and potatoes guy, Mel.
Starting point is 00:29:00 Okay. I just live my life and I just want things to make sense. Okay. Everything makes sense in the multiverse though. Apparently you could just, if you make a bad decision with a movie, you could just change it and bring somebody back. And, um, now listen, we, we agree on a lot of shows. Yes. Yeah. And people, the, the reason, cause people are always like like why is it mal on the rewatchables more it's because you're already doing 97 things for us it's hard to book you you're a busy person this is not true this is not true but we we've had some misses lately things that we were excited about i'm still licking my wounds from the american gigolo series i really felt like that
Starting point is 00:29:41 was going to be good when we we don't have one the affair was really when we peaked as a combo um it was just oh man i just we need another show like that i don't know why people aren't making no shows the adult dramas with weird shit going on we're not too far away from white lotus season three was great. Yeah, the best. One of my real goals, and I think that Chris and Joanna are invested in joining me in this mission, is bringing you into Slow Horses Hive. Just a sensational,
Starting point is 00:30:16 sensational television program. Apple. Oh, Apple. Okay. It is so good. I think it is in the running for best show on TV. Wow. Yeah. Season 3 starts in December. You only have two seasons to catch up on. They're
Starting point is 00:30:30 both six episodes. It's a mystery adaptation. The cast is sensational. You'll love it. It's great. Genuinely great. I was thinking of you today because I was doing emails and stuff and I was flicking channels because I want to have something on the background. I put on Marley and me because I like the dog scenes. But then kind of stuck with it, and all of a sudden, Marley started slowing down at the end, and I'm like, that was when I texted you, like, should we do dog month on the rewatchables? Because I'd have to book you for every episode
Starting point is 00:31:00 because you're the only other person at the ringer who cares about pets. Have you ever read that book? Yeah, it's good. Devastating. It's good. Like a true can't see the words on the page through my tears experience. Yeah, it's really good. And it's funny how the movies age too, because as I've gotten older,
Starting point is 00:31:20 I saw the movie in the theater. I thought it was good. I got emotional, obviously, because the dog died. But now as I get older, it's like, you know what? This is really about family and growing old. So I thought that would be a good rewatch. Great one.
Starting point is 00:31:31 Can I ask you, very natural opportunity here, if you've reconsidered your stance on cats? You keep pushing this. Yeah, well, I know my wife is reconsidering. Did you tell her that I have said I will be texting you a photo of my cat every day until you adopt a cat? I will not relent. I feel like it's going to happen because I've caught her on the sites a couple times.
Starting point is 00:31:58 Here's the thing. You're going to be an instant convert. You are. I know it. You're going to love it. Cats are the best. I'll keep you posted. You are. I know it. You're going to love it. Cats are the best. I'll keep you posted.
Starting point is 00:32:10 Intelligent. The Ravens getting the one seed and me getting a cat, that would just be a huge December for you. Man, yeah. Gunner winning rookie of the year. You getting a cat. The Ravens moving toward the top seed. I don't know. Maybe I should just retire. What else is there other than the Marley and me rewatchables? Maybe that'll be a wrap for me.
Starting point is 00:32:26 And then I can come back. No, what are you going to do in Racing Through the Rain? What was that? Dog's Purpose? I, that movie, I only watched that movie,
Starting point is 00:32:34 The Art of Racing in the Rain, because you, we were doing another rewatchables. Yeah. And you texted me and was like, I need you to watch this too. We were going to talk about this tomorrow too.
Starting point is 00:32:43 We were talking about, it was a Costner movie. Watch the movie. It did not come up the next day, but I've been ready ever since. Well, that and the Dennis Quaid, what was that, Dog's Purpose? That was great.
Starting point is 00:32:56 There are a lot of- The dog's soul leaves and jumps in other dogs. Like that, that's something. That should be a prestige TV show. A lot of- Did you watch Morning Show or no? No. Adam watches it.
Starting point is 00:33:07 I haven't seen a second of it. Yeah, you're not missing out. All right, we got to go. I took 30 minutes of your time. The busiest person at The Ringer, Mally Rubin. Can you hear on The Ringerverse? What else?
Starting point is 00:33:19 House of R? Yeah, House of R. We've got a standalone House of R feed now. We're there twice a week. Check it out follow along yeah I said Ringerverse
Starting point is 00:33:29 but you have your own feed now and it's House of R also the Ringerverse which spun off of Ringerverse but you also pop on the Ringerverse too yeah
Starting point is 00:33:34 you had a seven person live show two weeks ago we did it was great it was a blast can't wait to do it again what's going to be the nerd event of 2024
Starting point is 00:33:42 what's the one seed right now in the tournament? Well, I mean, House of the Dragons Season 2. Tough to argue against that. That's coming in early summer, whatever that means. We'll find out. So that's pretty exciting. Despite your MCU critiques
Starting point is 00:34:00 earlier and despite the broad MCU fatigue that is sweeping our viewing public, I think that Deadpool 3 is genuinely anticipated like a hard-arm movie coming to the MCU is an important I think moment and also you know Wolverine is in that movie so we're entering a pretty crucial X-Men stretch that'll be really fun I'm hoping that we get Rings of Power season 2 I have no idea what the date of that will actually be and then there's I mean there's get Rings of Power season two. I have no idea what the date of that will actually be. And then there's a ton of stuff coming this year.
Starting point is 00:34:28 We've got, at the end of this year, a Percy Jackson adaptation on Disney+. That's a really beloved book series that's being adapted on TV after a failed movie adaptation. So that's really fun. Three Body Problem coming on Netflix. It's Benioff and Weiss. They're
Starting point is 00:34:43 grand return to genre TV. That's hitting Netflix in March. And Netflix also has a Avatar The Last Airbender adaptation coming, which is sort of an interesting, like, on the one hand, it's a beloved property. So live action is something that fans, I think, are very trepidatious about
Starting point is 00:35:00 because of past failures and the original creators leaving this project. But also, it's Avatar. You see Momo in the trailer and you're just like transported to another plane of existence. So there's a lot. It'll be a dirty year
Starting point is 00:35:10 as it always is. And I will attempt to get you to watch one thing. We'll see what it is. I don't know what I'll be able to sway you to consume, but something. At some point.
Starting point is 00:35:21 I might try to watch Endgame over the Christmas holiday vacation. Van said that was good. You can't. Hold on. You can't just watch. You're talking about Avengers Endgame? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:34 That was a good one, right? Yes, Bill. It's a good one, but you can't just watch Endgame. It's the culmination of the Infinity Saga. I'm good. I think I can just watch that. No. I'll be good
Starting point is 00:35:45 i'll know everything at that point no did you ever get beyond you you stopped watching after iron man right i think you watched hulk and then you kind of stalled out we watched some yeah my son and i were gonna watch every mcu and that lasted i think i think girls intervened started dating girls and that was it he didn't want to to watch MC moves with me. Kyle just told us Joe Burrow is a sprained wrist. That's the word. Sprain. Sprained wrist. If it truly is a sprain
Starting point is 00:36:13 and it's not a more, well, I don't know. I mean, sprains can obviously be pretty bad, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he's done for the entire season, right? Is there a prognosis for time? Also, if they can somehow limp their way into the playoffs, whatever
Starting point is 00:36:30 scene it might be, maybe he can be ready for the playoffs. I always felt anytime you have a sprain like that, that usually means you messed up your ligaments in some way. And if you messed up your ligaments, we always see this in baseball, when somebody has some sort of wrist thing and it just, it takes forever to come back. So we'll see. Maybe the
Starting point is 00:36:49 Bengals are alive. We poured dirt on them 20 minutes ago. This is what happens when you emergency pod. Mallory Rubin, great to see you. Congrats on the Ravens win. Thanks, Bill. Get a cat. FanDuel is America's number one sports book, especially during football season. Right now, new customers get $150 of bonus bets when your first $5 Moneyline bet wins. We are about to cover a whole bunch of fun ones on Million Dollar Picks with Danny Kelly. One of my favorite ones is a bet the first half,
Starting point is 00:37:21 bet the game, same game bet that we picked two teams that we thought are going to win the first half and the same game at the same time. So if you've been thinking about joining FanDuel, no better time
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Starting point is 00:37:52 $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus but that expires some days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey.
Starting point is 00:38:09 That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey. And it's on Prime. All season long, watch Prime Monday night hockey deliver unreal plays, the biggest goals, can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL's best.
Starting point is 00:38:27 They're all on Prime. Prime Monday Night Hockey. It's on Monday. It's on Prime. All right. Degenerate gambler Danny Kelly is here. Nobody loves placing bets on FanDuel more than Danny. He barely knows there's lines on the games.
Starting point is 00:38:41 But that's part of what we need for billion-dollar picks. We just need some know-how. You don't need to have gambling experience. We just need your know-how, your brain. A new set of eyes on it, yeah. Yeah. I want to go through some of these games and I want to start with Rams Seahawks. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:59 The Rams are plus one at home against Seahawks. Kind of the Rams season here. They're getting everybody back. Stafford's playing. You're not out of it in the NFC. Nine and eight might take it. Might take the seven seed for all we know.
Starting point is 00:39:15 They've played, these two have played each other a lot. I think McVay likes playing the Seahawks. Oh, yeah. Seattle on third down. 30th defense. Stafford on third down, 30th defense. Stafford on third down with these receivers, seven, eight yards a pop, at least for the first half.
Starting point is 00:39:33 This looks like a scary matchup. I don't really like your defense. Right. And I have a lot of different Seattle. Danny's a Seattle fan, for the people listening. I have Seattle. I have a long shot for them to win the division. I have them to make the playoffs. I have their wins over.
Starting point is 00:39:48 And something seems slightly off with this team this year. So what is it? That's a good question. I think there's a lot of different things. Their defense, I would agree with you, is not really what it wants to be or what they wanted it to be yet. There's
Starting point is 00:40:03 still just a lot of issues. They're a young defense. They're still putting the pieces together. This game worries me. I almost picked this one. I almost picked the Rams for one of my picks because if you go back in the history of the Pete Carroll versus Sean McVay timeline,
Starting point is 00:40:18 it's not good for the Seahawks. The Rams have always given the Seahawks a lot of trouble for whatever reason. Even going back to week one, the Seahawks got absolutely completely shut down in the second half of that game. I think it was week one or early in the season. And for whatever reason, the Rams really get up to play the Seahawks too. I don't know why it is, but this is like a rivalry for the two teams.
Starting point is 00:40:37 Do you think it's like a little brother, big brother thing? Because the Seahawks mid-2010s were the team and then the Rams were on their way up? Yeah, I could definitely see that being the case. Even going back to those LOB-era games, the Rams, even when they were bad, always gave the Seahawks really hard times. They bring the game down to their level. You know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:40:54 It's just a fight in the mud or whatever. And so this game worries me, to be honest. I haven't marked. Stafford's going to be, I think, better. He's going to be back. So, yeah. So, what was that game? Wasn't it the playoff game when Goff couldn't play
Starting point is 00:41:08 and the backup came in for the Rams and then they won the game anyway? I think I blocked that out of my memory. You blocked that out of your mind, right? It sounds right. I think I bet on the Rams because it was like, McVay, Seahawks, I'm just riding it.
Starting point is 00:41:21 Oh, my God. Yeah, I like McVay in that matchup. Here's another thing with the Seahawks. I'm just riding it. Oh my God. Yeah, I just, I like McVay in that matchup. Here's another thing with the Seahawks. I, you know, every game's a big game, but this, they don't, this isn't like a must, must win. For the Rams, it's like our season's over if we don't win this game.
Starting point is 00:41:35 They're home, coming off a bye. Stafford, we think he's healthy, but I just like the matchup for them. I think they're getting, I could see like Stafford with 28 completions. They get 22 first downs. They just have the ball a lot. What's wrong with
Starting point is 00:41:51 Geno this year, in your opinion? What hasn't happened? Is this a Case Keenum 2017 Vikings thing or whatever your name was? It was a flash in the pan and he couldn't keep it up? I know what you're talking about. I don't think it's quite that. I still am a believer in the pan and he couldn't keep it up? I know what you're talking about. I don't think it's quite that. Because I still am a believer in Geno, generally speaking. Last year, he had a lot of turnover-worthy plays
Starting point is 00:42:12 that didn't end up as turnovers. I remember talking about this with my Seahawks chat during the offseason. Basically, Geno got away with a lot of turnovers last year that didn't actually turn into turnovers. So he's an aggressive passer. He's not afraid to push the ball down the field. He's got that mindset.
Starting point is 00:42:28 I generally think, though, like the turnovers have been sort of the one blemish. Otherwise, he's been pretty good. I know that's a huge blemish. It's a big thing. But I don't know. I'm still kind of a believer in him. I think it depends on how you want to look at him. If you see him as a guy who's kind of like a bridge quarterback,
Starting point is 00:42:46 good enough to get him to the next thing, good enough to get him to the playoffs potentially, but maybe not like a superstar, I think that's kind of where he falls. But there's people calling for him to be benched and things like that. And I think that's ridiculous to me. Was it fair to say you're not happy with your offensive line? It's been a bit of a disappointment, I would say. And there have been,
Starting point is 00:43:05 they've been really banged up. Um, they just got Charles Cross back at left tackle a couple of games ago. It looks like Abe Lucas is going to be back pretty soon. He's, I think practicing this week. So I don't know for sure if he's going to play or not, but,
Starting point is 00:43:15 um, you know, better days could be ahead, but they've been like rotating guys like quarter by quarter. It's, you know, it's kind of been a mess injury wise. I like the Rams.
Starting point is 00:43:24 I'm marking them down. Wait, I asked you to bring two picks. Give me one of them. Alright, so my first one is, I like the Lions this week over the Bears. You and I both. Okay, cool, because the Lions are really good at home. Ironically, the one game they lost
Starting point is 00:43:40 this year was to the Seahawks at home. And if you look at the splits with Jared Goff home versus way, in his time with the Lions in particular, he is just infinitely better at home. He's just so much more comfortable there. His pass rating
Starting point is 00:43:56 106 this year, 8.1 yards per attempt at home. And obviously they got their run game going and I think Jameer Gibbs looks really good. David Montgomery's back. They got that offensive line. They got Amon Ross run game going and I think Jameer Gibbs looks really good David Montgomery's back they got that offensive line they got Amon Ross St. Brown
Starting point is 00:44:07 I think even Jamison Williams is starting to flash a little bit like they're getting him involved and this Bears team I'm not getting excited yet yeah I'm not excited
Starting point is 00:44:15 quite yet it seems like they're they're trying they're doing the thing the Pats used to try to do this with Nikhil Harry where they'd run
Starting point is 00:44:21 the special play for him and try to get him going build his confidence yeah it's just, it's not there, but I've noticed the flashes. I'm with you. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:29 And then on the other side, it's like, you know, Justin Fields coming back off this thumb injury that like worries me. I think they, in the last couple of games that they've played,
Starting point is 00:44:37 Justin Fields has run a lot. So I do expect him to kind of like run around a lot in this game. But at the end of the day, I just don't really see him being able to keep up with the Lions. And you know, this is not a great Bears defense even with Montesua
Starting point is 00:44:49 in there. So I like the Lions at home. So the Lions are favored by seven and a half points and I want to tease them six points down because here's the thing with the Lions. You beat them by throwing on them. Are the Bears going to be able to throw on them? Probably not. Just the thing with the Lions. You beat them by throwing on them.
Starting point is 00:45:06 Are the Bears going to be able to throw on them? Probably not. Justin Fields with a thumb injury coming back. You kind of saw the recipe for how to move the ball on them. And I don't think Chicago's the team. The only thing that scares me about this is I do think Chicago's defense has shown signs of life the last couple weeks, but I
Starting point is 00:45:26 also think that's probably not going to matter because Detroit is so good offensively. I mean, they were unbelievable in that Chargers game. Playing from behind? I just, yeah. They're not built to play from behind. No, and that's the thing. So you get a tease. Like, I just keep coming back to like, do I think the Bears are going to beat the Lions?
Starting point is 00:45:42 No. So I'm going to grab that in a tease. I was thinking for a tease partner. So the Vikings are plus two and a half against the Broncos. Glad you said this. Yeah. And I think the Vikings, there's a little momentum with them. You know, Dobbs sanity is happening. Dobbs sanity.
Starting point is 00:45:59 I just, this feels like a close game to me. I don't see Denver blowing out really anybody, much less Minnesota. I thought Denver got really lucky last week against Buffalo. Buffalo just did dumb shit the whole game. And then it came down to the end. If they don't have too many men on the field, Denver just loses and has this devastating loss
Starting point is 00:46:16 where they got four turnovers. I mean, there was one point in the first half. I think they got the first three turnovers in the game and they had like six points. And it's just everything went right for them and they still barely won. And I'm just looking at the Vikings. I'm like, I can tease them to eight and a half.
Starting point is 00:46:34 That's a two score game. They're going to blitz the shit out of Russell. I'm not even sure Denver can really block for him. Then the flip side, they'll move the ball. Jefferson, is he coming back? He is, right?
Starting point is 00:46:47 I don't know yet. He was limited today. So hopefully, I think they're probably going to be conservative with it. So who knows? But, you know, this is the Sunday night game, right? Like this is the national stage.
Starting point is 00:46:58 So that might happen. Yeah, so it's going to be Dobbs. Everyone going nuts about Dobbs. Yeah. I also, have you noticed they might have stumbled into something with Ty Chandler. I agree.
Starting point is 00:47:07 I like this guy. He's just better than Madison. He, this is the level of degeneracy that I have. Like, I'm a dynasty guy. I have him on, like, literally every single one of my dynasty teams. Well, you host our fantasy football podcast, too. So, Ty Chandler's going to be on your radar. Yeah, so I like him.
Starting point is 00:47:22 You notice, though, like, he's got some burst. He's got some juice. He's been like their kick returner slash punt returner at times and it feels like and I think one of his coaches
Starting point is 00:47:31 even said it this week like every time he touches the ball something good happens he just has that spatial awareness he's got the juice I remember really liking him
Starting point is 00:47:38 in college you know he's a little bit smaller but the fact that they were trusting him they did like a wildcat play in the red zone with him last week.
Starting point is 00:47:46 That, to me, bodes well. If Madison can't play, we get to see more Chandler. So he's exciting. You mentioned, I almost brought the Vikings up as a team that I like this week. I'm a little worried about, like you said, the line is pretty close here, but Russell Wilson versus the Blitz this season, I looked up the stats, they're really, really bad. He has a 71 pass rating when blitzed.
Starting point is 00:48:09 Negative 0.33 EPA per dropback, which is 32nd out of 33 quarterbacks that have a pass rating qualified. And then 15.4% sack rate when blitzed, which is second worst. So, and by the way, the Vikings blitz at 49%, which is the second most.
Starting point is 00:48:24 I was going to say Flores is the blitz blitzer every other play literally so that's an interesting matchup I think that the Broncos what they'll try to do is just run the ball you know and try and like get them out of that just you know it's like a Rams almost like a Rams Seahawks
Starting point is 00:48:40 type game where they're just going to like run the ball play bully ball so that'll be like the only problem I see with the Vikings but overall I do like the Vikings. But overall, I do like the Vikings in this one. And I do think Denver... I like Denver's running game. And Javante, who I traded... I got Sal. I got Sal. Did a trade.
Starting point is 00:48:55 Mack Jones for Javante. I won the trade. I've already... The jury's come in. I won that one. But Javante looks like Javante from before he got hurt. Yeah. He's back. He's back. He looks good. I just don't trust Russ against the Blitz. Yeah, so Mayans, Vikings, little tease action.
Starting point is 00:49:12 I'm looking at that. What was your second pick you really liked? I don't know if this is too low-hanging a fruit, but the Dolphins over the Raiders. So if you look at what the Dolphins have done at home this year, they're 4-0. They've outscored their opponents by 100 points part of that is obviously
Starting point is 00:49:28 because they won 70-20 in one game but they're averaging almost 8 yards per play at home they're getting to third down on one of six offensive series at home so like they're just absolutely moving the ball at home I think they're trying to get their run game back with Devon Achan coming back
Starting point is 00:49:44 this week I think that's one of the big problems they've sort of had. Their offense has stalled a little bit compared to what we saw early in the season is they just can't get their run game going. And I think that's going to be a big part of this game plan this weekend. The Raiders have not been good against the run.
Starting point is 00:49:57 Their best player on probably both sides of the ball, well, on defense certainly, is Max Crosby. You know, running can certainly kind of take him out of the game plan a little bit. So I see them running a lot in this game and kind of just dominating from that point of view. So what's the bet then? Because they're favored by 12 and a half,
Starting point is 00:50:12 and I normally don't love laying that many points just because then you get the cheap touchdown potential and all those different things. Would you think about like a Miami over total points for the game type of thing? Yeah, something like that. Would you just lay the a Miami over total points for the game type of thing? Yeah. Something like that. Would you just lay the 12 and a half?
Starting point is 00:50:28 What would you do? Well, I was thinking that could be one of your tease options. Like tease the line down a little bit. tease it down under seven. Yeah. You know what I can do? I can throw them with the lions and the Vikings,
Starting point is 00:50:41 and then we can get plus 140. There you go. For the three of them, take the lions down to minus one and then we can get plus 140. There you go. For the three of them. Take the Lions down to minus one and a half, Vikings to plus eight and a half, and the Dolphins under seven to six and a half. All three of them would have to win. So you'd recommend that one.
Starting point is 00:50:56 I like that. Should I be worried as somebody who has a legitimate chance to win all three of my fantasy leagues, really for the first time in my life, that Mostert is a big part of that on all three teams. And now here comes A-Chain. Do I have to hire the Tonya Harding guy to kneecap him? Like, what do I need to do?
Starting point is 00:51:14 Please don't do that. I love A-Chain. What a scandal that would be. Ringer founder Bill Sittler hires a person to kneecap A-Chain to win Fantasy League. I don't think, I mean, obviously it certainly is going to lower Mostert's ceiling in Fantasy, but I don't think they're going to, he's not the type of guy that's going to get all the volume. You know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:51:36 Even when he was scoring all those points early in the season, A-Chain, I mean, he was doing it on 12 touches. They're still going to rotate these guys pretty heavily, I think. And you might even see Mostert still be the starter. I don't think you're going to get like he's the top five running back in the NFL anymore going forward in fantasy in terms of Mostert. But I do think he's still going to be startable and solid. I still feel like the most unstoppable play in football is Mostert running at a 45-degree angle. Seven yards every time. Never 45 degree angle, seven yards.
Starting point is 00:52:06 Every time I've never seen it, not get seven yards. So they'll just do it. Everyone's small, but nobody has ever run the 45 yard angle sweep. That's better than that. Dude. This whole offense is just about annihilating pursuit angles.
Starting point is 00:52:17 If for some reason they're the fastest offense, obviously. But most are, I, my whole thing, my joke, my inside thing is that Mostert runs like a paper airplane flies
Starting point is 00:52:28 where it's just like, all of a sudden, it's just like floating along, all of a sudden, it just banks really hard and stabs you in the eye. You know what I mean? He's just this, he's so fast, he's so fluid, so smooth, and then when he plants his foot and gets downfield, he's just gone. And so, I love Mostert. I've actually, Mostert, you know, the 8chan stuff has
Starting point is 00:52:43 kind of overshadowed how good Mostert has been. Certainly this year, but like over the last few years, he's just been, you know, one of the top guys in terms of yards per carry and stuff. He's just really explosive. So if I gave you Dolphins total points, 29 and a half, would you go over?
Starting point is 00:53:04 30 points for the Dolphins. I don't know because, again, if they're running a lot, are they going to score that many points? I don't know. Then again, I do think that... You hesitated, which is good. Yeah, okay. I'm going to give you a couple games that I like
Starting point is 00:53:19 on top of the ones we talked about. As you know, I've been riding the Steelers like Willie Shoemaker over and over again, week after week. I don't know who the modern jockey is for that analogy. And now it's like, oh, rookie quarterback for the Browns. No Deshaun. Devastating.
Starting point is 00:53:40 Their playoff options are out the window. And we're taping this before Ravens-Pangol tonight, so we don't know what happens that game. I think the Browns defense can win this game by itself. Yeah. I don't even really think they need more than 10 points from their offense, and I think they could still win it. Right.
Starting point is 00:53:59 Other thing with them is they can run the ball in Pittsburgh, who just lost another linebacker and was already 24th against rushing this year. And now in Cleveland, it doesn't matter. Like Chubb's out, they're missing tackles. They're still able to run the ball every week. I think they're going to be run the ball to keep the league. And then on the flip side, um, Cleveland's defense, you know, they're the best against passing Pittsburgh's 29th.
Starting point is 00:54:26 Pittsburgh takes 55 minutes to get going. You're not going to be able to do that against Cleveland. Right. Um, Cleveland's the best against first downs allowed Pittsburgh's 30th. They're one of the worst. I just don't see how Pittsburgh is going to move the ball. And I've watched them. I bet on them.
Starting point is 00:54:40 I'm always stunned how bad their offense is and how hard it is just for them to get first downs. Now you're going into Cleveland against a team that hates them. And, and I just feel like I'm getting a free point and a half. I still think the line should be three. The Steelers offense is so bad that I just think this line's kind of insulting. I don't think the Ricky quarterback drop off from Watson is dramatic enough to... I just feel like I'm getting free points. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, I think the way that I can see the Steelers spoiling this
Starting point is 00:55:12 and I guess this is kind of like the story for their whole season is like getting turnovers. But they're probably going to have Dorian Thompson-Robinson just run the ball a lot. They're probably not going to ask him to do much of anything. And that would be the smart play. And he's, you know, you can scoot too. So maybe they incorporate him into the run game ball a lot. Like, they're probably not going to ask him to do much of anything. And that would be the smart play. And he's, you know, he can scoot too.
Starting point is 00:55:26 So maybe they incorporate him into the run game a little bit. But, you know, in his last game, in his only start this year, I think he had like three or four turnovers. And so that's the worry. But here's the thing though.
Starting point is 00:55:36 So I've heard people talk about, well, his other game, he was terrible. He literally didn't know he was playing until like an hour before the game. True, true. Like he shows up,
Starting point is 00:55:49 he's thinking, all right, I'm going to get my my backup qb reps in and then all of a sudden like hey dude you're starting and guess what he sucked but it seems like this week he's had a whole week of practice i know they really liked him in preseason he was good they waved knobs because they felt like he could be a better option right so um So, um, I just, I, sometimes there's an inefficiency with gambling where it's like, well, they're starting quarterbacks hurts. So now cross them off. And it, you know,
Starting point is 00:56:11 Watson was good in the second half last week, but for the most part has been a liability for them. And I find it hard to believe that this is this dramatic of a difference that, Oh my God, they don't have Deshaun Watson. Like, I think there'll be fine.
Starting point is 00:56:24 yeah. So I, I, I hate turning my back on the Steelers, but my God, they don't have Deshaun Watson. I think they'll be fine. I hate turning my back on the Steelers, but honestly, if they're 6-4 after 10 games, that feels about right. I just think Pickett against that defense is going to be
Starting point is 00:56:38 a nightmare. Did you see there was the passing chart for Pickett last week, and it was literally nothing past five yards in the middle of the field. It was all just dump-offs, little swing passes. You take a shot down the sideline once or twice, but you just can't do it. You can't do that against the Browns.
Starting point is 00:56:55 No, you can't do that at all. You can't do that against anybody, really. Right. No, and the one thing with the Browns, I do feel like you can kind of run the ball up their throats, potentially. That would be the one way to go at them, but the Steelers haven't been able to do that all year. Although they are playing Jalen Warren a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:57:09 Their running backs have looked a little bit better the last few weeks, so I'm not going to say they can't run, but yeah, when you're one-dimensional, it's tough. Alright, my last bet. Now, we could also do this with Miami instead of one of these teams, just for the record.
Starting point is 00:57:27 But there's a bet on FanDuel where you can bet the team to win both halves. Oh, okay. And we can parlay that bet. And what I was looking at was the Cowboys to win both halves against the Carolina Panthers. I like that, yeah. They're in Carolina. And the 49ers to win both halves against the Bucks. Ooh. Okay. Now I could switch that and just have the Cowboys and the Dolphins winning both a lot, after everyone was making fun of Kyle Shanahan for keeping his starters in last week,
Starting point is 00:58:08 maybe they'll take their foot off the pedal. I don't know if that would matter enough. Well, I guess the question for me is, are they just up 7-0 in the first two minutes of the game? And then it's like, oh my God, this is going to be like 38-10. And we're done. The first half, second half bets are usually pretty fun if you have the right thing because you can relax pretty quickly.
Starting point is 00:58:31 So we have, let me see what the Dallas odds are here. So that would be 240. Oh, that takes us to minus 109. That's perfect. So what do you think of that? Miami first half, Miami wins the game. Dallas first half, Dallas wins the game. I don't see...
Starting point is 00:58:51 So I was looking at that Dallas, Carolina. The teams that have scored big points against Carolina, against their defense, Seattle put up 37. Detroit put up 42. Miami put up 42. Then on the flip side, their 31st DVOA offensively, only the Giants are worse, but the Giants are like, historically, we've never seen anything like this worse. Dallas is top four DVOA and we've seen them. They killed DeVito. They killed
Starting point is 00:59:17 Mac Jones. They killed Zach Wilson. They killed Brett Rippon. I just don't see any scenario where Caroline's going to be able to move the ball and stay in the game. I know. Cowboys, this is another game I was going to bring up. I thought it was a little too, like, low-hanging fruit or whatever.
Starting point is 00:59:31 But it's, they're just such a buzzsaw. I mean, they haven't played a normal, they've played, like, two normal games all year. Everything else has been either them getting blown out or them blowing out a team.
Starting point is 00:59:39 And, I mean, just imagine this pass rush for the Cowboys against, you know, Bryce Young and this Carolina offense who just hasn't really had an answer for anything this year. They've had flashes here and there, but it just doesn't seem like they can move the football. Their best receiver is 33-year-old Adam Thielen.
Starting point is 00:59:58 And relying on that to win against the Cowboys, that scares me. As you know, I love when weird shit starts happening behind the scenes so that Reich takes it back from the offensive coordinator. He gives it to the offensive coordinator. They beat Houston 15-13. And you
Starting point is 01:00:16 can watch the locker room speech. He's like, my guy right here called a great hit. Two games later he takes it back. It just seems like Reich knows he's going to get fired at the end of the year now and he's just throwing shit against the wall. It's seems like Reich knows he's going to get fired at the end of the year now and he's just throwing shit against the wall. It's never a good sign, right? Yeah, I like that one a lot.
Starting point is 01:00:30 I just think the Cowboys are going to be overwhelming in this one. Okay, so we have Dallas winning both halves with Miami winning both halves.
Starting point is 01:00:41 That is minus 109 on Fando. Just quickly, the Tampa versus Niners game. There's some advanced stat stuff that I thought, you know, like Tampa can't run the ball. And San Francisco has a top four rushing defense. All right, so we're just removing Tampa's running game
Starting point is 01:01:00 from this game coming out of the gate. Tampa sucks on their defense. It's the worst in the league on stopping teams on third down. San Francisco is like one of the best third down teams. And it just, I was just looking at it going, is this one of those games where the Niners just have 34 first downs and they have the ball for 40 minutes? Yeah. And, but yeah, what I, I agree.
Starting point is 01:01:21 I think that Miami and the Cowboys one are the best bets. I like the Chargers, but I just, I'm not betting on Brandon Staley. Chargers minus three at the Packers. I'm just not doing it. That seems like the classic sucker bet. Another one I almost brought up. Again, it's like the Chargers to me are always just like, I don't want to have to deal with that. They're just so unpredictable week in and week out. I love Herbert, but yeah. Last one. We don't have to talk about the other games. Although I did stare at the jets for a split second against the bills before I realized
Starting point is 01:01:51 I didn't want to bet on Zach Wilson. Um, chiefs Eagles. Yeah. So my instincts are Chiefs under three points anytime this happens, take it. They talked about this on East Coast Bias today on the Ring of Gambling show where it's like,
Starting point is 01:02:15 if you're getting less than a field goal and you have Mahomes at home in a game he needs, that's about as good of a gambling spot as you could be in over the last five years. And you think like, all right, Phillies 8 eight and one, they're physical, they're big. Could they run the ball down Kansas City's throats? I actually don't think so. I like Kansas City's defense.
Starting point is 01:02:33 Yeah, they're good. Can Kansas City move the ball on Philly? Well, I don't know if I love their passing game, but I also think Philly is the perfect team for them to play because it's a lot of like five yard, seven yard, him scrambling around. And is the perfect team for them to play because it's a lot of five-yard, seven-yard, him scrambling around. And as the week went on, I started really leaning toward KC. But I don't totally trust it. So what do you see
Starting point is 01:02:55 when you look at this game? It's so tough because everything you said is true. And it's like watching the Chiefs offense this year has been really frustrating because it's just like no co And it's like watching the Chiefs offense this year has been really frustrating because it's just like no cohesion it feels like. They're just not smooth.
Starting point is 01:03:12 Everything is a little like fits. Everything operates and fits and starts is like how I describe it. And no speed. They're just not fast. They don't seem scary. It's like they have all these random receivers that they rotate into the game in and out. Like no one even is playing like over 60% of snaps for them.
Starting point is 01:03:28 So it's just bizarre to watch. And, you know, I don't think their run game is especially intimidating either. But then you got Mahomes. Mahomes kind of like smooths all that out. And, you know, if he can get away from the pass rush and get outside the pocket and make things happen out there, then that gives them a chance.
Starting point is 01:03:44 I don't know. I kind of come into this game liking the Eagles, to be totally honest with you. Yeah. I don't know. That's why I've stayed away ultimately because I think Philly might be the best team in the league. And they haven't had the game yet where everybody
Starting point is 01:03:58 goes, oh, Philly's the best team in the league. They played nine games. I've never felt that way once about them. There's always been like, ah, what was that? What was that? So I think ultimately it's just, plus it's a revenge game for that.
Starting point is 01:04:10 But man, I keep looking at that Mahomes minus two and a half. I'm like, ah, this is like a gift. It's like when this used to happen with Brady.
Starting point is 01:04:17 It's like, oh, you're giving me less than three points with Tom Brady. Great. I'll take it. Kansas City is going to be rocking too.
Starting point is 01:04:22 That's going to be a tough place to play. Well, the Kelsey's and the Swifts are meeting. I know you're be rocking too. That's going to be a tough place to play. Well, the Kelseys and the Swifts are meeting. I know you're focused on that. It's going to be fantastic. The biggest storyline. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:32 So we'll stay away from that. But I do, if I had to pick, I think I would do the Chiefs and the Eagles. All right. You ready? Yeah. Million dollar picks. Week 11.
Starting point is 01:04:46 I can't believe it's week 11. I know. It's wild. This season flew by, ready? Yeah. Million dollar picks. Week 11. I can't believe it's week 11. I know, it's wild. This season flew by, huh? Seriously, it's crazy. The fantasy regular season is almost over. I know. Who's the fantasy MVP for you? Oh, man.
Starting point is 01:04:58 Well, for a while, it was Mostert. I know. He's definitely fallen off. I don't even know. Honestly, Chris McCaffrey is a boring answer, probably. I know. He's definitely fallen off. I don't even know. Like, honestly, Chris McCaffrey is a boring answer, probably, but...
Starting point is 01:05:09 There's some CD Lam momentum all of a sudden. Oh, he is. There's a lot of people that have a chance to win fantasy MVP. This would be a good podcast for you guys.
Starting point is 01:05:16 That's a great point because it's been like... I think there's been like two or three week periods where a new, different MVP kind of emerges. For a minute, there was like Devon Achain.
Starting point is 01:05:24 You know, Raheem Mostert was the number two or three running back in a new different MVP kind of emerges for a minute. There was like a chain, you know, Raheem Mostert was the number two or three running back in the NFL for a while there. Um, you know, AJ Brown was absolutely going bonkers for a while. Now we got CD lamb going bonkers. You know,
Starting point is 01:05:34 there's a couple of quarterbacks too in there. So, um, I don't know. I, I would probably just say Christian McCaffrey overall, but you know, this is a good,
Starting point is 01:05:42 this is a good topic. You know, AJ Brown is another reason I don't want to bet the chiefs yeah he's just terrifying and i have him on two of my teams so i've really really enjoyed it this year but man they've just completely figured out it's nice when a team just completely figures out how to use a receiver oh yeah it's like these are the four routes you can run and you're good at all of them and we're gonna get you the ball this is the reason i i really like the eagles it's not and i agree with you completely like the whole year and i've been saying this on our pod that every game you come away a little bit like man what's going on with the eagles but they're still winning every game
Starting point is 01:06:17 you know it's just like right they're not doing it as smoothly or pretty as you want them to do it but i keep coming back to the idea that they have these little competitive advantages that no other teams have. Number one, they steal a down because they do this tush-push thing. And they basically can play for fourth down so much more confidently and easily and convert so much more at a higher rate
Starting point is 01:06:37 than any other team. They basically steal a down compared to every other team in the red zone and on third and fourth down. And then, obviously, you add in the fact that and on, you know, third and fourth down. And then, obviously, you add in the fact that Jalen Hurts
Starting point is 01:06:48 kind of like steals a gap in the offense the way he can run, especially in the red zone. And then now you've got guys like A.J. Brown who's like unstoppable. Just throw it up to him
Starting point is 01:06:56 and he'll go get it. They just have these little edges at like so many different areas. Then they have the pass rush that can close games down. And to me, that's why I just keep going back to the Eagles as like the obvious Super Bowl favorite to me because they have the pass rush that can close games down. And to me, that's why I just keep going back to the Eagles
Starting point is 01:07:05 as like the obvious Super Bowl favorite to me because they have these just advantages that wear other teams down. I'd be excited for that because that was my preseason pick.
Starting point is 01:07:17 Right now, they are third on FanDuel. They're plus 550. Which doesn't make a lot of sense to me because they're probably going to be the one seed and then in the second round
Starting point is 01:07:28 they're going to play somebody not that good. Maybe it'll be Dallas. Maybe Dallas will be good. They'll be in the 4-5 hoping that New Orleans or whoever beats Dallas. Maybe it'll be Dallas, but they know they can beat Dallas. But they might not even have to
Starting point is 01:07:44 play a hard game until the NFC title. All right, here we go. Danny Kelly, million dollar picks week 11. Last week we made $760,000. We had a big week. I could even been bigger except Raheem talked me out of two teams. I love last week. Last week was the week of the year.
Starting point is 01:08:03 That's all right. I forgive you, Raheem. Down 930 for the season, 930,000. But here was the week of the year. That's all right. I forgive you, Raheem. Down 930 for the season. 930,000. But here's what we're doing today. We are going to put $300,000. Browns. Minus one and a half against the Steelers.
Starting point is 01:08:18 We talked this out. You're a little nervous about the rookie QB. Tiny bit. DTN. Yeah, but not DTR. Really not. DTR. Honestly though, you laid it out. It's not like Deshaun Watson's been elevating
Starting point is 01:08:31 that offense really. They're going to keep doing what they do. They play defense. They stop you. They run the ball and they kind of wear opponents down. By the second quarter of this game, I'm going to know his acronym is DTR and not DTN. DTN sounds like a TV network.
Starting point is 01:08:50 I actually think I'd be more scared of him if he was DTN. All right, Browns minus one and a half. A lot of advantages for the Cleveland defense. I mean, this is really like the all-time, with good teams, awesome defense against a crappy offense matchup in their home. And I just like Cleveland at home. All right, that's one. Number two, I can't believe I did this to Danny.
Starting point is 01:09:07 I brought him on so we could bet against his beloved Seahawks. But he knows, Rams-Seahawks, there's a lot of advantages for the Rams. Staff are coming back. It's a must-win kitchen sink game for the Rams. It's like Cup is going to finally get back to doing his dominant things. He's had three straight subpar games.
Starting point is 01:09:27 Cooper Cupp is going to have 200 yards in this probably. Rams plus one. So insulting. So we're grabbing them. Oh, we didn't mention Cards Texans. I forgot to throw that one at you. We're staying away from that one, right? That's an interesting one.
Starting point is 01:09:41 Cards plus four and a half over the Texans? That line is too high. The Kyler thing is just so I don't know what to do with it. I think Kyler makes them a lot better than they should be probably
Starting point is 01:09:52 plus this McBride guy Trey McBride. He looks incredible. I really really like him. I think he's been like a huge into their offense. So we're going to stay
Starting point is 01:10:01 away from this for a million dollar picks. But I want to flag that I looked long and hard at cards plus four and a half, but I don't know if I want to go against the CJ Stroud machine at this point. Plus, he can throw the ball in Arizona. So if there's ever a game he throws for 450, it'll be this one. Teaser is our next one, 300K. Lions minus seven and a half against the Bears.
Starting point is 01:10:24 Lock that one in. I'm not worried about that one. Vikings, we're going to bring them up from plus seven and a half against the bears. Lock that one in. I'm not worried about that one. Vikings. We're going to bring them up from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half against Denver. Yeah. Did you see the Dobbs thing coming? No,
Starting point is 01:10:35 of course not. But did you see any, is there any version of this that seemed conceivable? Like just the fact that he's been so good or that he, he switches teams and immediately just elevates the off fact that he's been so good or that he switches teams and immediately just elevates every offense he's on? Craig called him the host body. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:10:52 I just feel like there should have been some way for all of us to figure out that this was conceivable, but maybe that's why I stopped Sanity. It's like every year, I feel like teams screw up quarterback for whatever reason. You get a guy in that's the backup or the third string guy. And he's like so much better than the starter.
Starting point is 01:11:08 You just never know. My joke has been he's the quantum leap quarterback. You ever watch that show back in the day? Oh, yeah. You just like he quantum leaps into a new life. He's like in surgery. And he's like, oh, crap. I got to figure out how to perform surgery.
Starting point is 01:11:22 You got to quarterback the Vikings. So I think, yeah, he's just man., he's been, obviously, he's very smart. That helps a lot. But he can run around, too, do things like with his legs. I think that changes the offenses that he's in. And I don't know, man, it's crazy. He looks really good. If I ran a football team, I would just never have a quarterback that couldn't move anymore.
Starting point is 01:11:41 Like, if I had my choice of like, oh, I could have Derek Carr or I could have Mac Jones or whatever. I would just want somebody who could run around and try to save plays. Just cover it. It covers up so much stuff. Yeah. I'd run the 40-yard deep pass like every five plays trying to get a P.I.
Starting point is 01:12:01 That would be my offense. Under throw the deep throw. Yeah, yeah. The Jets should just, that should be their entire Zach Wilson offense. Under throw the deep throw. Yeah, yeah. The Jets should just, that should be their entire Zach Wilson offense. Just throw it down, throw like high lob 45 yarders
Starting point is 01:12:11 to Garrett Wilson in traffic and just hope somebody hits him. All right, next one we're doing. This is a parlay on FanDuel. Minus 109. Dallas wins both halves against the Panthers. Mm-hmm.
Starting point is 01:12:23 And Miami wins both halves against the Raiders. And Miami wins both halves against the Raiders. So first half, end the game. That happens. I like this. Minus 109. We're putting 300K on that. And you don't want to put a tiny bit
Starting point is 01:12:38 on the cards money line or no? I mean, I think they could pull it off. I think they could pull it off. Are you talking about cards win? Yeah, cards actually just to win. That would be plus 196. That's kind of a fun one. I don't know if I believe it in my heart of hearts.
Starting point is 01:12:56 Yeah. All right. We're staying away. Sorry, Cardinals. Those are the million-dollar picks for Week 11. Love it. Thank you, Danny Kelly. Sorry we bet against your team.
Starting point is 01:13:04 It's okay. Reverse jinx. Don't tell Mina. Don't tell her it happened. Thank you. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 01:13:20 Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way.
Starting point is 01:13:45 Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, Jay Kyle Mann is here from The Ringer. He just wrote a rookie power rankings piece on theringer.com that I loved reading. I had a great time with it. We are not going to talk about any Thursday night basketball because we're taping this beforehand.
Starting point is 01:14:02 So the Warriors are playing. Draymond can't get ejected from the, I think he's already suspended, right? He can't get ejected again? It's five games, right? So I think it was immediate, right? So he's not in there at all. Is there a way for him to add to the suspension during the suspension? Like, can he
Starting point is 01:14:18 lash out on social media and they'll just add games? I don't know. He's been off his rocker this year. All right, so rookie rankings. You had Wembanyama number one. How much time do you want to spend talking about him? games. I don't know. He's been off his rocker this year. All right. So rookie rankings, you had Wimby and Yama number one. How much time do you want to spend talking about him? Let's limit ourselves to 40 seconds. Go. Okay. I mean, the thing about Wimby and Yama, you're going to hear some kind of, I was awaiting some of the dialogues I thought I would hear. I mean, the Chet Wimby thing, we talked a little bit about it on group chat. I think that the situations are always really big.
Starting point is 01:14:46 I think this is a good segue into just kind of the thinking behind the rankings. I tried to go into it with rewarding older players who were doing well and with like, you know, winning situations. And then you're weighing it with like sort of the grace that comes with guys that have bigger roles also who are younger. You know, Chet is on a team that is ahead. It's more sort of actualized than the Spurs, as you and I have talked about,
Starting point is 01:15:10 as the people in the ringer have talked about at Nauseam. And they needed somebody who is exactly like him. So that helped him. Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, he's just fitting in on a lower usage and like just his touches have been different, whereas Wimby's usage is i think 30 and a lot of that has been sort of leaning on the areas of his game that are kind of inefficient
Starting point is 01:15:32 right now so it's been a little messier but i think when you compare age and situation and that that extra year has been big for chet so i still i still consider you know wimby's projection being the thing and and he's had some really brilliant high points too already in this early season well i'm already in the record i hate the sohan as the point guard the whole experiment it just feels like stealth tanking to me and i'm just not messing around if i have this dude i want to surround him with people that will help him actualize his potential as fast as possible. I have no interest in spending the year trying to figure out if Jeremy Sohan
Starting point is 01:16:07 could be my point guard. Even if I have, you know, they have Jones who every time he comes in, his plus minus is way up. But I just, even two Joneses, I'm fine with. Because there's two, the thing that's frustrating about Wimby D'Am is there's these stretches where he's just not involved for, you know, four or five
Starting point is 01:16:25 minutes because they're not getting fast break points because nobody can run a fast break. Meanwhile, he's the perfect guy to do that. Doesn't seem like really anybody can throw a good entry pass on his entire team other than the backup point guard. And then they'll just forget about him. And like, I think that Knicks game was a perfect example where he, it wasn't just that he had a bad game. It was like he wasn't involved in the game, which is almost worse. I want him involved everywhere. I want somebody looking out for him, thinking about him, taking care of him, pouring water on him like he's a plant.
Starting point is 01:16:57 And they do not have that this year. And I think it's an important thing that they're missing. Yeah, I feel like their roster is sort of like they have a lot of working appendages, but they need some central nervous system slash brain type things. Totally. Sohan is like, he's a great connector. That's a theme of this class,
Starting point is 01:17:16 is connectors. We can talk more about that and defenders and things like that. Sohan in the right position is going to be great, but people don't respect him as a pull-up threat. People don't respect him. He's not the scoring threat, I think, that you can drive your offense. You can't have him as the initiator and expect that to be the thing. I think one more guy, because Keldon is
Starting point is 01:17:36 a score-first guy who's learning how to get off the ball and pass a little bit. Vassell, exact same thing. Those guys, when they want to get into their rhythms, like Kelton was like notoriously rough as a decision maker coming out of college. Vassell is learning to do this on the job too. I think sometimes when you combine that with the fact that we saw in that Knicks game that Vic just can't run a straight line right now. So we're not seeing him hard run to the rim. And Chet couldn't do that really a year ago either. He used to just evaporate in contact so um i think they're just kind of balancing that with like you know i
Starting point is 01:18:11 i think the most likely outcome for vick is that he's going to be like an elbow short corner operator the way dirk was you know because he can see i i was floating this to somebody i was like when you stack all the elite defensive stuff i I think that's going to happen for him. He is a really good passer, too. You kind of keep catching yourself being like, is this too much? Like, is this really happening? But, like, I think he's going to become a great passer.
Starting point is 01:18:35 So, I still am, like, 100% in on the upside with him. I am 100% in as well. And I've loved Chet. And, obviously, I love that OKC team. I have a lot of future bets and all kinds of things with them. So I watch a lot of them anyway. And there's certain types of teams
Starting point is 01:18:52 they're just going to have problems with, right? When they play Jonas Valanciunas, it's like, oh shit, that guy is 45 pounds bigger than everybody in the Thunder. You know, they play Jokic. It's like, ah, well, this is a wrap. He's getting a 38, 19, and 10. But the thing that I've loved about him is his ability to attack
Starting point is 01:19:13 people off the dribble, which I think I had just forgotten about. Cause I hadn't seen him, you know, for two years, but, uh, but I, I just wasn't expecting that because he's so tall. You just think he's going to like fall over when he does it. But he really does have the ability to go by people or pull up. And on top of that, all the other stuff. We knew the defense was going to be there. We knew the offensive rebounding. And then he has some fuck you in him,
Starting point is 01:19:38 which I think you could see from 10th grade. But to me, he's actually further up the ladder for me than I was expecting. Like he's more of a finished project, more of a finished product than I really thought. I thought this was going to be like his kind of what, like the year Wemby's having right now, but he's kind of having a sophomore year, but he didn't have a freshman year. So I don't really understand that piece. Yeah. Your point about him him like going by people I mean I posted a clip in the uh in the in the guide where um I was just kind of watching what OKC's offense does whenever you know whenever he's on the floor like the respect that he gets you know
Starting point is 01:20:15 you mentioned the shooting and the driving and those two things are just linked you know with the fact that he can handle the ball you know 46.3 percent on almost four attempts per game uh in 30 minutes and I think the big thing there is that you know the more3 percent on almost four attempts per game uh in 30 minutes and i think the big thing there is that you know the more i think i think i wrote this in his draft eval was that he's going to get faster the better he shoots it because he you know he he draws those fives out there i mean he just owns zach collins again like i was watching that uh that turn again he boards that college but uh he just he has a few moves like for not being like twitchy fast he just is very mobile like he's flexible and that's something that wimby and chet both is really
Starting point is 01:20:50 interesting is that they they i know you you talk a lot about like athletes in different eras and being prepared and how things are different now than they were you know 20 30 40 years ago they are very ahead of the schedule like chet's dad was a center for minnesota who by all accounts for everything you read is like was really talented but had crazy physical problems and so when chet started to play he was ahead of that on like making sure taking like preemptive physical therapy like i can't speak to the exact science of all this but like they were thinking about chet being physical or like flexible ahead of time so like a lot of his just in traffic comfort and Vic's the same way you see Vic doing these insane stretches where
Starting point is 01:21:30 um there's I screenshotted something of like him guarding Chris Paul where he sits down and you cannot tell how tall he is based on how flexible he is so I put in there a clip I was just kind of watching what their what their offense does and like when you know when they'll they'll have sequences where they'll you know door it'll have sequences where they'll, you know, Dort will have it around the basket or they'll go to offensive rebound. And if they get the ball back, they just sort of, like, you know, exhale basically like an organism. Like, you'll just see their offense.
Starting point is 01:21:55 And then what happens, lo and behold, they'll exhale. And then you'll see these gaps open up. And then suddenly Jalen Williams, Shea Gildas, you know, it's like these driving lanes. It's just a really interesting thing to watch, like the way it's working because you got to respect Chet and shoot him. Well, they're playing tonight, unfortunately. They're playing the Warriors, so we can't.
Starting point is 01:22:16 We'll see what happens. That's an interesting game for them because I like them against any small ball team or smaller team. And the Warriors, that's kind of the model for where they want to be, right? Just being able to switch on defense. Just having got five guys who can attack on a floor, a lot of shooting. Their three-point shooting is what's killed them in the losses they've had. They'll just go seven for 38 from three and have these things. But for the most part, I like the pieces. And I think the West is,
Starting point is 01:22:45 you know, the best team is Denver in the West. Minnesota is the second best team right now. Now that might change as we go, but they, I think, have number two locked up for now.
Starting point is 01:22:56 But that number three spot's open. And, you know, I look through everybody and it's like, oh, they could be that team, they could be that team. So anyway, really good year for him.
Starting point is 01:23:04 Now, Auster Thompson is, everybody. And it's like, oh, they could be that team. They could be that team. Uh, so anyway, really good year for him now. Also Thompson versus Chet Holmgren. You had a, you had Thompson third on the Pistons. He is my favorite rookie in a while. Oh, in a while. From this respect, whatever my expectations were versus what I've been watching, I'm just like, I fell in immediate love with him. He is like the perfect energy slash wing defender gives a shit. Just everything he does is additive. He's the type of guy that no matter what situation he is, the team's just better if he's on the team. I've never seen a game where he wasn't impactful in some way. And I know like that, yeah, the shooting needs to get better, all that stuff. But the stuff he's doing, it's really rare for a perimeter guy.
Starting point is 01:24:01 Like you're talking about, there's some Pippen pieces in there. There's some Sean Marion pieces. You're talking about like hallowed ground. And he's already. Like he could have a 20 rebound game tomorrow night and I wouldn't be surprised, right? He could have 10 offensive rebounds in a game. I wouldn't be surprised. Like when you watch him, the eye test is backing up the stats. He's averaging 10 rebounds a game as a rookie and he's not a front court player. So I just, I don't even know who's like him in the league. He's already a one-on-one and I know you had him ranked third, but what are you seeing? I mean, he surprised me. Like there, there were things that, that didn't surprise me. Like I knew he was competitive and the thing with the Thompson twins that you always had to kind of
Starting point is 01:24:40 weigh was, um, who they played, you know, they were a little older in the overtime elite and they were kind of, they were playing these, the games were just hard to played. You know, they were a little older in the overtime elite and they were kind of they were playing these. The games were just hard to watch. They would they would inevitably turn into these like just
Starting point is 01:24:49 transition fests that would look like bad kind of, you know, summer games. Which is bad for him because his style, you want him in like the highest level games
Starting point is 01:24:56 with like some structure and then he really stands out the shit he does, you know? Yeah. And I think playing next to a twin brother who kind of has a
Starting point is 01:25:04 similar kind of skill set profile I leaned I'm in because I thought I'm in passing and like I I'm inside kind of a rougher start so we'll see if like it evens out and they both end up being incredible but like the defensive I think he's also in kind of like a weird like Houston situation they have all these guys that are kind of graduating as like their touches are going to go up their role is going to increase and change and then they added brooks and fred so it's like i i think he's kind of getting squeezed by some of that but i think playing next to i'm i'm in like who was another just total non-shooter i think he's always there's a weird fit thing going on where we're starting to see and i think when bogdanovich comes back where we're starting to see, and I think when Bogdanovich comes back, we're even going to see it even more,
Starting point is 01:25:45 is that when you put, you can almost play Asar like a big. And I think it starts to, he can be the cutter. He can really pass the ball. That's another thing. He'll have these plays where he'll cut and he'll make these crazy head, shoulder,
Starting point is 01:26:02 eye fake passes to cutters. He's really, really good at finishing. His percentage isn't reflecting that right now, but he's really, really athletic around the rim, crazy in transition. But the defense, man, the defense is the thing. And that's like a common thing that keeps coming up in this class is I really think he could be an all-defense player. I really think it's a matter of when because he's been terrorizing people.
Starting point is 01:26:24 He gave Shea a hard time. He's super, super disruptive around the basket. He's something else, man. I absolutely love that, dude. I really do. I just can't believe, first of all, how good he is right away, and the fact that he can grab like 16 rebounds in a game as a, in like in his ninth game as a rookie against like a good team. Um, but that I just, you know, I, I always look at this stuff. Like, would it be fun to play with that guy? If I was still playing pickup, is that a guy you'd want on your team? He is like the exact guy you would want on your team. If you were just picking like, all right, I'm gonna run with these fives. I want this guy. Like all he's doing, he doesn't care if he has the ball. All he's going to do is try to help.
Starting point is 01:27:06 He's going to bust his ass. He's going to create plays all over the place. And the defense is just jaw-dropping. He wants to guard the best player. That's another thing. He wants to. The defense is jaw-dropping. And it changes the trajectory of that team. And I don't know what's
Starting point is 01:27:21 going to end up happening with them. Because you could argue, they're probably one of the worst seven teams in the league, but when Bogdanovich comes back and from what we've seen from Cade already, and they have a lot of big guys to throw, and then you throw him in there, like they're just going to be a bitch to play. It'd be really hard. They're going to have shooting.
Starting point is 01:27:37 They're going to have rebounding. They're going to have size. And then if Cade can keep elevating, like that's a team that is, I think as the season goes along. I texted you. I think you had Chet in the right spot at two. But Thompson, if you had had Thompson at two, I don't think I would have been upset
Starting point is 01:27:59 because to me, he's like a safer bet. Chet, I don't know. I don't know what's going to happen with his body. Oh, wow. No, no, no. I'm talking health-wise, physicality. I watch Chet, and same thing with Wemby, where I'm just nervous half the time.
Starting point is 01:28:14 Anytime somebody's diving for a loose ball, they're just too tall. They can't get out of the way, and I'm just always worried they're going to get hurt. And this Thompson is just like, this guy is a machine. Yeah. I'm more worried about Vic
Starting point is 01:28:28 on that front than Chet. I feel like Chet has gotten like almost sneakily strong in the past year. I hope you're right. Maybe it's the legacy from last year. Like he just gets hurt
Starting point is 01:28:38 in that summer league game. And it's like, what happened? Chet's gone already? But the tall, gangly guys, you called Chet a gangly savant? Like, I'm sorry, but I'm going to worry about a gangly savant health-wise
Starting point is 01:28:48 for 15 years. I just am. Did you hear me talking about how, I mean, the guy that, Kevin actually did this too independently of me, I found out later, was I was trying to project him and I just kept coming back to Pau Gasol.
Starting point is 01:29:02 He's like, Pau played differently because he grew up in a different era, but he would have shot threes if he were an international prospect coming in now. But I was like, I was telling, I was joking with the group chat guys. I was like, when we were at Salt Lake City last year, Pau Gasol, I had just done that.
Starting point is 01:29:16 And I was like, Pau Gasol was like in the roundabout of our hotel. And I was like, just kind of like looking at his frame in a way that might've been a little creepy, but I was just kind of, cause his frame in a way that might have been a little creepy. But I was just kind of, because I had that in my mind. And I was just like, that was pretty skinny. He just put on a lot of weight. And I don't know.
Starting point is 01:29:33 I think the thing you said about the Pistons, though, back to them, is interesting because if Asar is a certainty, they took Ivy because the talent was there. And I think that's always smart. Houston did that with Whitmore, too. If there's a guy there, it's worth taking that risk. Just take the talent was there and i think that's always smart like houston did that with whitmore too you know if there's a guy there it's worth taking it's worth taking that risk just take the talent but i just think i don't know that they can have three dissonant kind of shaky shooters you know like with ivy and with killian and you know killian obviously is probably
Starting point is 01:29:56 fingernails on the edge of the cliff right now um i just think especially with kade playing like a pick and roll style he's capable of doing other stuff, but those defenses are all about you can keep everything in front of you. I just wonder if they should lean towards picking one of those guys. I'm kind of dubious about that style because the shooting thing, the bill always comes due with that stuff. They're going to have to figure that out because he's just a total non-shooter right now. Cade and Asar, I don't really care. I'm good. I can put a real team around those two guys.
Starting point is 01:30:31 This is a borderline turn the camera on, Kyle. As you know, I probably own the most Scoot Henderson stock. And by the way, if people are selling, I'll happily buy it. I did wonder though, knowing what we know now about Asar, could he have been the, the, uh, the Portland pick? And then you keep Dame for what we're watching from him. And then what does Portland look like? Because it's like, oh man, we can't, can't keep Dame. We're rebuilding. But if you put the stuff he's doing in Detroit, in Portland with Dame
Starting point is 01:31:06 and with the rest of the pieces they had and maybe you still figure out how to make that eight and trade, because Phoenix clearly wanted Nurkic so they want to get rid of the money. But there's some version of a Portland team where they take Asar and not Scoot where I'm like, it's kind of a fun team.
Starting point is 01:31:23 Because he's literally the perfect guy for what the Dame version of that team was, right? So I don't know. It's an interesting sliding doors that I never expected to entertain. I entertained Amin at number two all year last year. Like I thought that it was very feasible. But the thing is that I think I underrated
Starting point is 01:31:40 Asar's playmaking a little bit. And on that team that you're describing hypothetically, I mean, that's pretty, I think he would fit with them. Does it elevate them to, I mean, fun, I think is where it elevates them to. Maybe it's just, I don't know. But I don't know. Would it be, you know, he provides more things, I think, like intangibles than like Thibel does. I compared his like shooting repertoire to Thibel. I feel like it's always going to be similar to that. But yeah, that's an interesting idea. I still think, but
Starting point is 01:32:07 that would imply that you think they shouldn't have taken Scoot though, right? You still think that Portland should have taken Scoot. Yeah, I'm in on
Starting point is 01:32:12 Scoot. I'm still buying everyone's stock. And I just, the key to him is to be a downhill guy the same way Derrick Rose and Westbrook
Starting point is 01:32:20 when they came into the league the first two years. That's who he has to be. And you had some stats in there about his, when you had him ranked number 10 on this, about some of his pull-up jumper stuff. That's not who he is. Get to the rim, get downhill, slash and kick, get to the rim. That's who you are. And I just think he seemed
Starting point is 01:32:41 a little overwhelmed the first couple of games. Plus they had this new team. They're still making trades all the way up to this season. I'm not worried about him. I think other people are, though. I think this draft was so good that if somebody's not awesome right away and then you look at all these other guys. You had 15 guys listed in this thing. And I like all of the guys. This is one of those rare drafts where
Starting point is 01:33:05 it's like, man, this is going to be some redraft in a couple of years. Let's take a quick break. And then we'll talk about the rest of the top 10. All right. So you had lively at four on Dallas. And this is an interesting one. We've talked about him a little bit already, but just this is the fallacy of that one year, one and done, where you have these guys who are top five in their class, top three, whatever. And then the college season maybe doesn't go quite where you think. And then the overreaction happens. It was hard to watch Lively at Duke last year and think that he would end up being the fourth player on this list.
Starting point is 01:33:49 But then you watch him on the right team, and I think that playing with Luka, it seems like he's in the right situation for the most part. But they're accentuating all the things he's good at. But more importantly, he really gives a shit. And that's a recurring theme of this class specifically, is these guys really play hard and really care, and they really gives a shit. And that's a recurring theme of this class specifically is these guys really play hard and really care and they really give a shit. And that's what surprised me about him. Did you see that quality at Duke or no? I saw there were some things. I mean,
Starting point is 01:34:17 I knew that he had, I really think that the spacing and the lack of playmaking and the lack of shooting, that's a really tough, I mean, those things interact with each other and cause one another, obviously. But at Duke, it penalized him more than I think anybody else on that team. And it was tough because he also had a slow start to the year. I think he had a calf injury. And from what I was watching at lower levels, his learning curve was pretty steep in terms of learning defensive concepts
Starting point is 01:34:44 and things like that. The thing that I've had a lot of back and forth talking, the main arguments that I've heard people throw is that Lively versus a Jordan Hawkins. I think that's something you have to weigh in a class like this.
Starting point is 01:35:00 You mentioned Scoot. The guys that have... I'm building into these rankings, ideally, some forgiveness for role. Because if you look at, like, touch time and, like, number of dribbles and things like that, like, Lively's, you mentioned, I said this in the piece, but, like,
Starting point is 01:35:17 you couldn't, if you told me who is the perfect human being for Derek Lively to be paired with, it's Luka. And now you give him, like, that's okay, that's a condition, but also, like, Lively to be paired with. It's Luka. So, and now you give him like, that's okay. That's a condition, but also like Lively is doing his part in it. Like he's reading the screens. He's reading when to roll defensively. He's been okay. And I think that's one, like, I think the two, two of the hardest jobs are like to be a defensive anchor as a rookie, if you're a
Starting point is 01:35:38 big and to be a point guard, just because it's so much, it's so fast. I think he deserves a lot of credit for, for as good as he's been. I think worst case scenario, he's a 25-minute-a-game guy who's really impactful and has good stats and fits in with certain types of players. And that's your worst case scenario for him now? Then the best case scenario is he becomes like a Tyson Chandler-y, but even more springy and, you know,
Starting point is 01:36:03 kind of the late 2000s version of Chandler crossed with like some Nick Claxton in there. But we've seen guys who do all the stuff he does. Those guys come in the league and they succeed over and over again. So we know what he is. The fifth thing's a great point because Thompson on Houston, worst possible team for him, right? Like Van Vliet, Brooks, Jalen Green, they really have something already. Imei seems to think his team's good and he's right. I think that team's actually pretty good. They're running everything through Shengun and Shengun has turned into a revelation this season. And I just don't see him getting the touches on that team. It doesn't mean he's a bad
Starting point is 01:36:38 pick, but like, that's the kind of guy, man, I wish you had gone to Chicago, you know, or I could think of, we could. The two of us could probably think of five teams and be like, oh, if he'd gone to that team, that would have been really fun. And this team, I just don't think he's going to get the possessions. Whereas I think if they'd taken a Sar, I think he actually would have played more for them because they kind of need one more guy like that, just flying around, hoping Shangoon on the reboundings.
Starting point is 01:37:04 But fit is a huge part of this. I think Ivyoon on the reboundings. But, you know, fit is a huge part of this. I think Ivy's on the wrong team. And is it a Dennis Smith Jr. situation where the only situation is he needs to have the ball all the time, but then your team has no ceiling? Or is he somebody that can play off
Starting point is 01:37:20 other players? We don't know yet, but it doesn't look right with him on the Pistons. Because I've enjoyed watching the Pistons. And I don't... Monty's already yanking him around. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not really sure what he is yet. Like, I don't know what the comp would be for him, but, uh, but I look at a man and I'm just like, I have no idea. We're not going to know this year. He'll have moments. He'll probably have one game when he comes in and puts up 20 and, you know, 15 minutes. Oh, look at him. But for the most part, I just don't think he's going to play a lot this year.
Starting point is 01:37:47 Yeah, I think we're still 10, 11 games in. We're still in 12 in some cases. We're still in forgiveness mode where Suggs went through this a couple years ago where when he got drafted, there were a lot of people who were like, okay, Jalen Suggs going to bring balance and order to the magic. And then we got to Christmas time and we were like, well,
Starting point is 01:38:06 I just think there's a net under some of these guys, I think, of adjustment period because a lot of good NBA point guard struggle. I've brought up Darius Garland was considered the worst player in the league by every metric his rookie year. And things started to come around. I think you do have to give some grace. But for now, we're the like benefit of the doubt, you know,
Starting point is 01:38:26 because if it was pure raw performance, like Scoot would be, and I'm in, wouldn't be in consideration. Like they're getting a big benefit of the doubt based on what I project them as and what their situation is. But as it goes along, I think that net is going to kind of loosen understandably.
Starting point is 01:38:40 Well, you had Wallace on OKC number five and you had Brandon Miller on Charlotte number six. And I actually would add Wallace on OKC number five, and you had Brandon Miller on Charlotte number six. And I actually would add Wallace four and Brandon Miller five and Lively six. But this is why the rankings are so fun. Everybody's got their own opinion on them. Wallace is another one.
Starting point is 01:38:57 I mean, you talked about this in the piece, and I thought it was a great point. I never really thought about it this season, even though I'm watching all these games. The defensive upside of this class, you might have four first-team all-defense guys in the future on this list, and Wallace is one of those dudes. Wallace and Asar, both of those dudes, I think, have first-team all-defense potential, shutdown potential. They, to me, have that Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards going against the Celtics side of,
Starting point is 01:39:30 oh, shit. Oh, these guys are bringing it. These guys are hard to get by. But Wallace, they trade up. They get Bertans' salary to trade up two spots. It's like, man, couldn't you got him at 12? Was that worth the risk? It was worth it.
Starting point is 01:39:44 They can't keep him off the floor. And to me, the interesting piece with him is, is he going to slide in there in crunch time eventually? Is he going to be like a finishing guy for them? He's dependable. That's the thing. He's a low-waste player who, in the sort of narrow kind of parameters of what he does,
Starting point is 01:40:01 he's been super efficient. He's been crazy efficient offensively everywhere. He's a smart cutter. Like I mentioned, like the spacing thing, how all eyes go to the drivers of OKC. He's been really clever about like cutting at those 45 degree angles into the lane and has made a living off of that.
Starting point is 01:40:18 The other thing too is he really, really competes. Like he's a really smart player. It was frustrating for me personally. Fits in with that team because that whole team is just super competitive. Yeah, they draft bright kids. If you listen to the interviews,
Starting point is 01:40:33 they had a roundtable with a lot of their youngest players, and I was like, these are all just really bright guys. They think the game really well. And the question for Kaysen now is just how much can it expand from here? I think that he could become, I don't know about a primary long-term, but
Starting point is 01:40:49 he could grow into a guy for them that could make some decisions on the ball. He opens up so many possibilities. The defensive class thing, I brought this up to you because I didn't want to get too carried away. I was looking back 2007 is about
Starting point is 01:41:06 as far back as I got. I just think if you think Wimby, Chet, Asar, I'm in. I still think he's a great defender. Anthony Black, Kulibaly, Kaysen, Lively, Hawkins, Kamara. We didn't even talk about Kulibaly on the defense side. Yeah, that's another one. Parisian Pippen. Omax, I
Starting point is 01:41:21 think is going to be a good defender. Andre Jackson if he gets a chance. Jordan Walsh if he gets a chance what about the psycho on portland i love that guy let's say he made your rankings too i'm playing kamara yeah i mean he's he's a role player that guy that's an annoying player that always ends up on good teams like that i guarantee that guy will end up on a final four nba team in the next five years like Like, oh man, this guy, look at him doing stuff. The tag for him, I said, was he was everybody's dad's favorite. He was going to be every dad in Portland. I guarantee you, like, if you could like, you know,
Starting point is 01:41:52 I'll audit the texts in Portland. Like I bet the percentage of dads who text their sons, like love Kamara, favorite player. He's just got, he's got those dad skills that are like. He's the odds on favorite to probably be the next person punched by Draymond Green. If you're doing that who's next and he's he's definitely one of the favorites um i love wallace another great pick presti um who just he clearly has he's figured out something he's figured out something with length and competitiveness and brains and put something into a supercomputer and it just spits out these dudes.
Starting point is 01:42:28 The guy, the biggest loser with Wallace though, I think is Giddy because there might only be room for one in that one. And Wallace is younger and on a rookie contract and Giddy still can't shoot. I love Giddy. I think he's important in that team. And he's another guy who's super competitive, but at some point he's going to have to learn how to make an outside shot to play the kind of minutes or else you're not going to be able to have him out there in crunch time. So Brandon Miller, KOC was higher on him than Scoot. We argued about that a lot last summer. And he was just, his whole thing was like, I know what this guy is.
Starting point is 01:43:02 Here's what he's going to do. He's going to come in. He'll be able to get a shot. He'll be a good defensive player. I think what surprised me about him, at least in the games that I've seen so far, he's a better all-around player than I was expecting. In my head, I just had him as more of like,
Starting point is 01:43:17 he's just going to come in and be a guy who, a little like Keegan Murray last year. He'll shoot some threes. He'll get some shots, but he's not going to be that impactful on both ends yet. Maybe that'll come. But there's a feistiness to him that I like. And, you know, if he didn't have that incident happen last year,
Starting point is 01:43:37 maybe he just goes to, I mean, maybe it's just a slam dunk. Everybody knows, oh, this guy should go too. We shouldn't even argue about this. But I see what he is. He makes sense to me. And you like him too, obviously. Yeah. His shooting percentages, if you would look at them, you'd be like, oh, that's lower than I thought from three. I believe in the shooting, not worried about it. He can come off screens. He can shoot dribble, pull up. He's shown all that stuff and it's translating. He had a couple of offers that were bigger. I think had one at msg that was like an 0 for 6 and then he had an 0 for 5
Starting point is 01:44:08 that's pulling him down a little bit but i think a big thing for him is that he's not being too stressed like if he was being a little more like featured as like the primary ball handler like i think it'd be a little messier but he's like behind lamello and and gordon hayward right now uh i think his usage is in the teens so he's just LaMelo and Gordon Hayward right now. I think his usage is in the teens. He's just coming along slowly. We're seeing it. He competes on defense, too. He's a big body. The finishing
Starting point is 01:44:33 and stuff is going to have to come around. There's a discussion about what's the ceiling. I said that I thought that he's somebody that, depending on how that goes this year, I have tears in these rankings for anybody that hasn't seen it yet. And it's like, you know, superstar, all-star MVP, like, you know, on down. He's somebody that I think could ascend to like that all-star status if he like really turns the corner on that front, because he can pass the ball,
Starting point is 01:44:59 he can shoot the ball. So I'm a believer in those things. Yeah, I don't see him as an all-NBA guy, but I do think he could be an all-star potentially. The thing with him, I like the shots he takes and the percentages that go up. But the same thing with Maxie. Like Maxie will have games where he's like eight for 22, but I like every shot he takes, you know? And I think with Miller,
Starting point is 01:45:17 he's just got a nice feel for where to get to the spots that he wants. And he's got his three or four shots that he knows he can probably make, but he's, he's feels pretty complete. I, I've been impressed.
Starting point is 01:45:29 He's also, when you see him out there with these other guys, he is a little like taller. I know we knew it as measurements were, but he doesn't feel like small rookie, you know, he, he,
Starting point is 01:45:40 it is a little Paul George-ish like his size body. So, um, you had Keontae George at number seven. It is a little Paul George-ish, like his size body. You had Keontae George at number seven. He's in a great spot because eventually they're going to go. There's not even great players to tank for this year, but they're not going to be a playoff team. They're already slowly letting him drive the car around the driveway,
Starting point is 01:46:04 but eventually they're just going to flip him the keys and we're off. But this feels like a steal. I mean, he was out of the lottery, right? Yeah. Wasn't he 16? Yeah. I mean, yeah. His skill set, like if it's there, I think it made sense for them to reach for it because I think a lot, most people agreed on his like on-ball talent.
Starting point is 01:46:19 He's got that kind of like irregular rhythm kind of thing going on. He's not a super athlete but you can see like okay if this guy gets like really technically polished kind of like um booker had a little bit of that i don't want to say that he'll become booker that's a that's a separate thing but like that sort of uh that that makes up for some of that like blow by speed i think and you know his his like pick and roll like the percentage of his possessions right now that's better in the pick and roll, it's 42.3%. That's incredibly high for the rookies.
Starting point is 01:46:48 And dribbles per possession is four and three quarters per touch. So he's got the ball in his hands a lot. You said around the driveway. I always make this comparison that with ball handlers, in this kind of situation, it's kind of like giving the keys to a manual transmission, like McLaren to a 15-year-old. You're like, all right, buddy, in this kind of situation, it's kind of like giving the keys to a manual transmission. Like McLaren to a 15-year-old, you're like, all right, buddy, take it around the track. And you just hear him grinding the gears.
Starting point is 01:47:11 He's spinning out. And every once in a while, he'll go 100. And then it's like, oh, he's learning how to drive. And so you kind of have to give a little bit of grace, I think, for some of that stuff. But I believe in the shot making. It's just, can he be a primary is the question. Yeah, he's at a really he be a primary? It's the question. Yeah, he has.
Starting point is 01:47:28 He's at a really cute stage right now for a rookie. Like, sometimes he's going faster than his body. And, you know, he'll drive to the basket. He's going so fast, he can't even finish whatever. I don't know, flying into the basket sport. But you can see it. And I honestly, Black, I've liked more than I expected on Orlando. I didn't understand the pick because I felt like they already had faults.
Starting point is 01:47:47 Well, you take another tall guard who can't shoot, but he's different. There's a vibe. There's a personality thing with him that I think is super important. You can see it. He's like a quarterback on a football team. He's this kind of larger-than-life, charismatic, old-school point guard, and he's just, he's like a quarterback on a football team. He's this kind of larger than life, charismatic, old school point guard.
Starting point is 01:48:07 And he's a connector and he's just trying to make everybody and get people the ball in the right spots. Scott, he's happy. I, it weirdly, it was the right pick. And I, I didn't feel that way at the time, but I think for, you don't need him to score 25 points a game. You have these two scores. What you need is somebody that brings kind of the energy and the playmaking that he does.
Starting point is 01:48:28 And he's tall and he's weird and he's just unusual. He's like an unusual player. And who would you even compare him to? Oh, gosh, that's tough. I honestly don't know. It's so strange that this class has, you know, you'll see little patterns and clusters of player types. This class has a bunch of big switchy defenders that are athletic and smart, but cannot shoot the ball for shit.
Starting point is 01:48:49 It's really weird. There's like eight of them in this class that I like really believe in. I thought you were going to say that the shot of him where he was on the bench where he made the big play and he was like all sad that he was he was depressed because he'd made like a negative play in crunch time. And it was like, he cares. I mean, he's clearly not going to. But we've always known that about him. He's just a psycho competitor in the best way. One of the clips I spelled out in the profile that I would encourage people to check out
Starting point is 01:49:15 is there was a play against the Lakers that almost went the length of the shot clock where he single-handedly disrupted him. D'Angelo kept trying to screen him with AD over and over and over, and Black was blowing it up. He really cares. I still think that I was higher on the Jet Howard thing. I'm giving it more of the benefit of the doubt for the Magic.
Starting point is 01:49:37 I thought that Kaysen would have been amazing with Orlando. I think Jordan Hawkins would have been amazing with Orlando. They need movement in their offense, like spacing. They need something to distract from Cade and Paolo or from Franz and Paolo. Black, I think, helps them stay big and helps their defensive switchability. Just the shooting. It's the same thing again. I don't know that I have a comp for him, though. I can't think of one off the top of my head. I was thinking he's kind of the guy I always kind of wanted Michael Carter Williams to be because part of the Michael Carter Williams thing was he didn't have any of the leadership stuff, right? He had the size, it seemed on paper, but there was just something missing. And this kid's the opposite where he's just like a natural leader, you know? And you mentioned the Hawkins thing with them. They took Jed Howard over Hawkins, right?
Starting point is 01:50:23 Yes, I believe so. I don't have the number in front of me. That's really rough. I mean, that's like, because Hawkins, like, he's just, he's Kerry Kittles. He's Kerry Kittles with a better three-point shot. But you just kind of know what he is. Like, he's going to be in the league for 14 years
Starting point is 01:50:39 just doing whatever. Yeah. And I don't really know what that means for McCollum on that team. I know this time McCollum knew an extension, but you basically got his replacement just sitting there who could come in and probably put up
Starting point is 01:50:56 95% of the same stats, but he's on a rookie contract. So I don't know what that... That team is... That New Orleans team, they had a big win the other night. They're clearly something. I don't know if they're going to is that new Orleans team. They had a big win the other night. Like they, they're clearly something. I don't know if they're going to be able to stay out of their own way.
Starting point is 01:51:09 They've had terrible injury luck. Like they've lost like almost their entire bench, but God damn, they have so much talent. Like just to bring Hawkins was like their 11th man and he can come in and have these 30 point games. But I, you know, he's, I, he was one of the fewers. Like you could kind of see what he was going to be was one of the fewers. You could kind of see what he was going to be coming out of the draft. Like, all right, I know what this is.
Starting point is 01:51:29 And then he's been even better than I thought. I said you can just sprinkle him on everything. I compared him. I was saying he's just like a food item that you can just put on everything. You're like, that tastes pretty good. That's great. Because he can shoot with movement.
Starting point is 01:51:42 I mean, his shot is fast. I think he's at like 36.7 on like but on a huge volume and i think that uh the point i made in the piece is that like he i i really think they could ramp him up in like a miami heat type way where his attempts could he's proven that he can do it at a high volume and if if they ramp him up and start using him off ball even more if willie green decides to really hit the gas with that, you pass a point as a shooter where Steph and Klay obviously are the benchmark for this, but you get in your mind like, oh, this dude's crazy. He will shoot this ball.
Starting point is 01:52:16 Duncan Robinson is the same way. Hawkins, I think, is eligible to do that because I think he can shoot it like that. I want to see him and Trey Murphy play together when Trey Murphy is back and fully healthy because I think that would be a nuisance to guard. I like that, dude. It's really so hard to come in as a two guard and do a Ray Allen
Starting point is 01:52:36 imitation basically when you've been in the league for three weeks. It's crazy that they were able to rely on him like that. You had him eight. I would have had him seven. You had Hock as I would have had him seven. You had Jaquez nine. That's just shots fired at Scoot at that point. I like Jaquez. And he's a very good role player for Miami.
Starting point is 01:52:53 And he's exactly as advertised. And he's kind of slid into their crunch times a little bit. It's like, yeah. All of a sudden, there's three minutes left and he's kind of still out there. I feel like this would be your favorite player. I was teasing you about him. I didn't know if you were sour about it.
Starting point is 01:53:09 You were like, God damn it. No, I love him. I mean, they did it again. They drafted the perfect guy for them. We'll see with the three-point shooting. Ultimately, that'll be whether he stays on the floor or not in the big moments but he's just he knows where to go and what to do and they always seem to have these dudes that
Starting point is 01:53:29 that's the first thing you would say they know where to go they know what to do i would i would not have scoot lower than him though just because scoot had three bad games and i just i'm still i'm by again i'm buying everyone's scoot stock. Just quickly racing through the rest. You had Sasser at 11. Jesus Christ, where did this guy come from? He's like, came out of NBA Central casting as a heat check third guard off the bench. He's a mix of 20 guys that we've seen succeed, right?
Starting point is 01:53:59 He's like clearly a six man of the year candidate four years from now. It's just instant offense. He's a guy who was like a big time dribble pull-up shooter and defender in college he played at a program that like he just he likes to defend he's he's he's a guy that looked a little smaller to me when i saw him in an nba game i was like man he looks really small but he like he's a smart you know when you have a big playmaker like Cade, you can play a score. I made like a,
Starting point is 01:54:26 I made like a very, you know, pump the brakes. Nobody take this like one-to-one, but it's like, it's the, it's the Luca Brunson thing. You know,
Starting point is 01:54:33 when you, when you have a bigger playmaker like that, you can put a guard size guy next to him. Totally. So, but he's, he's just been seamless. I think he's a steady.
Starting point is 01:54:42 He's going to take the Ivy. He'll take the Ivy spot. I feel like it's possible. He'll take a lot of those Ivy minutes. Cause he's just been seamless. I think he's a steadiness. He's going to take the Ivy. He'll take the Ivy spot, I feel like. It's possible. Or he'll take a lot of those Ivy minutes because he's the more idealistic version of what you would want next decade. I think you're right. Sasser, just there's crunch times
Starting point is 01:54:55 and he's just out there taking big shots. You had Black, number 12. My guy, Kamara, number 13, who's definitely getting punched by Draymond at some point. Vazankov number 14. Fundamentals. He'll end up on the Warriors in like three years. And then
Starting point is 01:55:11 you had Ahmed Thompson at number 15. Koulibaly, I almost feel like there should have been a 16 because Koulibaly's done enough. And I hate watching the Wizards, but anytime I've watched them, I've just been intrigued by him. And I hate watching the Wizards, but anytime I've watched them, I've just been intrigued by him.
Starting point is 01:55:26 And it just seems like he hustles. He's got a weird, long, athletic body. And he's just clearly, he's like, all right, keep an eye on this dude.
Starting point is 01:55:35 I don't know if it'll happen this year for him, but it seems like he's getting more minutes at least. Yeah. I mean, that's one that like, that's a totally valid argument
Starting point is 01:55:44 I've heard the most from Wizards fans and I they're not out they're not out of bounds saying that to me it's I like Koulibaly uh there's a reason I call him Parisian Pippen I'm a believer like he he was the guy that was like right there that I was just like I gotta do I need to go uh get this guy in on the list Vizinkov's a guy that could slide and I could see Koulibaly climbing on this list he's he's just he's in that cluster of guys, the defensive upside. And you watch him out there, and he doesn't look lost. He's a guy who grew a lot.
Starting point is 01:56:11 He's one of those kind of point guard size guys that grew late all at once. So he just has a nice processing kind of power. You hear that, people. It's a nerdy way. He just thinks the game really well for a young guy. Really fun draft. I would say
Starting point is 01:56:26 on the higher end of drafts with crazy upside and then the bonus of Chet somehow counts for this draft, at least for this rookie class. If you're counting him in this rookie class, which is kind of unfair, but I think we have to. This is one of the best rookie classes we've had.
Starting point is 01:56:44 The defense and the switch. This is one of the best rookie classes we've had. The defense and the switchability and just some of the 101 unicorny kind of qualities that some of these guys have is pretty unusual. Maybe it's just where the league's going. Like, oh, here's our 6'8 point guard and here's our
Starting point is 01:56:59 6'10 skinny Sean Marion guy and maybe the league's just going to get weirder and weirder. But this is a weird draft that has been really good. You didn't have Hendricks in there. We haven't seen enough of Hendricks yet. Do you like him? I like him.
Starting point is 01:57:13 I think, you know, I had been told that he was going to spend some time in the G League, which I was totally in favor of. You know, it's possible he could have a resurgence. And Jairus Walker is another guy who Rick Carlisle, surprise, surprise, didn't want to have on the floor because he's just not ready. The Pacers already have enough defense. Vysinkov has a similar problem where it's a team trying to, you know, they're just hemorrhaging points.
Starting point is 01:57:35 The Pacers are doing it by, like, they're like, all right, we're just going to outscore you. But he's a guy who just isn't quite ready to defend. I was kind of in the middle on Jairus Walker. But, yeah, that was the reasoning there. I think this rookie class is yet another reason we need two more NBA teams. We have so much talent.
Starting point is 01:57:57 Like dudes that aren't getting enough time now, and part of it is just there's too many good players. And you look at somebody like Thompson on the Rockets, and it's like, that dude's not going to play. He's on a team that has a bunch of veterans. They'll be lucky to play 12 minutes a game. We have no idea what he is. So, all right, Kyle, man, great job on the rookie rankings. Good to see you. How are you feeling about Kentucky before we go? Did you watch them the other night on their champs classic? I was in LA watching it with Tate. Uh, they're going to be fun. They're going be fun they're gonna be wild actually this i wouldn't always recommend this to you because you know i don't want to make people watch college basketball i felt embarrassed because in the first duke
Starting point is 01:58:33 michigan state game we were watching it with like syrit and tyler and it was like four to three after like 13 minutes in the game and i was like oh my god this is a terrible marketing moment kentucky i think it's going to be chaotic fun in a way that I think you would like. I bet you Ben even knows some of the players for Kentucky. They're like social media stars. A few of them are. So I would recommend checking them out. They're going to be, I don't know how good they'll be,
Starting point is 01:58:54 but they're definitely going to be fun. All right. Good to see you. Thanks for coming on. My pleasure. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Mallory. Thanks to Kyle. Thanks to Danny Kelly. Thanks to Kyle. Thanks to Danny Kelly.
Starting point is 01:59:06 Thanks to Steve Cerruti and Kyle Creighton as always. I will see you on this feed on Sunday. Enjoy the weekend. I wanted to say go Pats, but A, they're not playing, and B, I don't want the Pats to do well. I'll say go Holy Cross. Go Holy Cross. See you on Sunday.
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