The Bill Simmons Podcast - Cleveland’s Big Mitchell Trade With Ryen Russillo, Plus AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: September 2, 2022

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo to discuss the Jazz trading Donovan Mitchell to the Cavaliers, and what this means for the Knicks (1:51). Then Bill is joined by Cousin Sal to talk NFL win totals for the AFC (50:08)! Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ryen Russillo and Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton and Steve Ceruti Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's on Prime. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. We put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did Tango and Cash. On Labor Day, we have Saving Private Ryan coming. It is a two-hour podcast.

It's almost as long as the movie Me, Sean Fennessey, and Chris Ryan. Stay tuned for that. So today's podcast, it was going to be me and Cousin Sal doing AFC and NFC over-unders. One of my favorite podcasts to do all year. We started taping it and Donovan Mitchell got traded.

So here is the new plan. Called up Russillo. Russillo and I taped mid-afternoon West Coast time to react to the Donovan Mitchell trade because I have a lot of thoughts. And then we're going to run the AFC over-unders with Sal after that. And then on Sunday, NFC over-unders and guest aligns with Sal. And we have another fun guest after that. So that's going to be Sunday night. So we're splitting up the Sal podcast. Of all the days for Donovan Mitchell to get traded, Jesus,

this is the easiest podcast of the year, over-unders with Cousin Sal. I didn't need more sports news, but you know what? I'm not complaining. Can't wait to talk about this trade. Rosillo is next. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, mid-afternoon LA time. We had a massive NBA trade. I was not expecting to talk about basketball. This was the one week I thought there'd be no basketball news.

There was. Cleveland goes in on Donovan Mitchell. We bought Rossello out of the Batcave. Rossello finished his own podcast today. Had no idea we would have a basketball trade talk about. They get Mitchell for three number ones, two pick swaps, Colin Sexton,

Lori Markkinen, and Baggi, the guy they picked 14th in this draft. So really, four first round picks, if you count him as a first runner, two pick swaps. I want to start with Cleveland

because I thought if Cleveland or Memphis got Mitchell, that was a game changer for either of those teams. I don't think Mitchell is a true number one. I think he's somewhere between a one and a two, but the framework of those teams, I felt like if either of those teams can get Mitchell, they're a contender. Now you look at Cleveland, Mobley, under contract forever. Sexton, under contract for a while. Now Mitchell, under contract for four years. Jared Allen as the fourth.

What are you thinking as a contender for this team? Because I don't think they're going to contend this year, but I think they could be super frisky the way Memphis was. But down the road of this decade, I'd really like that as a foursome. What do you think? I love this trade for Cleveland. Love, love, love this decade. I really like that as a foursome. What do you think? I love this trade for Cleveland. Love, love, love this trade. I think we should probably spend some time on talking about who Donovan Mitchell is. I think it's one of those things where we all

actually probably agree, but we pretend we disagree on the overrated, underrated thing. As far as being a number one, like when somebody says, oh, can he be the Batman on the championship team? The answer's no. The answer's no for probably 444 players in the league. The Batman thing on his own. First of all, nobody can do it on their own. The answer is no. The answer is no for probably 444 players in the league.

All right? Right. The Batman thing on his own. First of all, nobody can do it on their own. The list of guys that truly are a franchise changing. It's never a double digit number. To me, it's always seven or eight. Yeah.

Yeah. Maybe at best. So, all right, fine. Mitchell isn't that. But what is he? He's somebody where I'm looking at my all-star, not my all-star, my all-NBA voting where I'm going like, can I sneak him onto the third team? Would that be terrible? That's how good he is. And when you factor

in what he's done so far in his career as a playoff guy. Now I know everybody's off everything that's happened with Utah because everybody's just kind of anti-Utah that gets sick of this team not getting past the second round but you know that that series against Phoenix, man, that is otherworldly shit that he was doing against

that team. Excuse me, against Denver. Yeah. 57, 30, 20, 51, 30, 44, 22. So when I've watched a lot of Mitchell, and if I wanted to spin this as anti-Mitchell, I'd be like, yeah, there's a little stuff in there. He forces the issue. Maybe not the greatest playmaker. A whiff of Westbrook.

Yeah. I always say that. A little Westbrook light, a little concerning at times. I think that also could be him frustrated with his teammates, which whatever. We'll pay attention. We'll monitor that. But when you talk about the rest of who this guy is at 25 years old and once you accept that there just aren't that many guys that all of a sudden make you a championship contender

this is an incredible pickup which i think identifies a massive problem for the calves when i would watch them late in games it was darius garland dribbling around for fucking ever trying to figure out like i have to initiate the offense on every one of these tight possessions here late yeah this completely changes their offensive attack late in games they thought they were going to solve with Karis Levert because everybody likes Karis Levert until he's on your basketball team and then you're like oh wait this guy this guy just kind of does whatever he wants so the Cleveland part I love this for them we like Mitchell as even if he's a little overrated, I think some people might think he's a super duper star. Maybe people have cooled off on that.

But what he is, is a gunslinger. If I'm in a playoff series or I'm in a big game and the other team has somebody who's really good. And now I know at least on my side, I have a guy who can create a shot and could potentially put up 35, 40, 45,

whatever Garland showed signs during the regular season as somebody who his ceiling was kind of where Mitchell is right now. But as somebody who could be the creator playmaker on a team that was really, really good, that could even win a couple rounds. Mitchell's already there. I really wanted Mitchell to go to a team

where he was part of a bigger team, like an 89 Pistons type of situation where they just had a lot of good players. And it's like, all right, here's what this guy's good at. If it's a tie game with four minutes left, he can create his own shot and he can do stuff. And the other thing, the big guys can protect him on this team, right? Because you would think like, all right, what's your concern now with these guys? The way Mitchell played defense the last couple of years.

This year against Dallas, the Dallas series was awful. But it also, there might've been some effort stuff too. And he also took a lot of shit for it. So maybe he'll raise the stakes. But the point is when you have Allen and Mobley, especially Mobley, you can erase a lot of stuff with that. And that's why like, man, I know you talk out a lot of picks in this trade, but I don't really want picks that much on the team that Evan Mobley's on. I think you and I might rate him, we're in the highest level of Mobley fans, right?

But there's a chance this is Tim Duncan in the late 90s where he could have that kind of moment. I just think he's such a special player. Now you're giving him two awesome playmaking guards and you're giving him Jared Allen as now the fourth guy in the team. And they still have the Kevin Love contract to trade. That was the part that amazed me. I thought Kevin Love was going to be in this trade. Now that they potentially can do something with that in February,

maybe Levert and Love together. So just the four guys, if that's my nucleus for the rest of the decade, I'm pumped. And I wasn't surprised that we saw this the same way. Yeah. I mean, there's still a million things I could do on the team. Like if you look at the Cavs, right, it was a really good story. And it was a young team that was playing really good defense.

They at one point were 35 and 21. They finished the season 9 and 17 to close. And as their seating was starting to fall off, I was like, oh man, I really wanted you to be in that top six. But they defended really well as a young team. The reason they fell off is Jared Allen got hurt. He played only six of 24 games in the second half. So when you look at who they were defensively before the All-Star break, they were fourth.

And after the All-Star break, they dropped to 24th. So they're a completely different team defensively. And a lot of that had to do with Allen. Mobley's only going to be better. I'd like to see, you know, this is the rarefied air to even mention Duncan with anybody. Like, I don't really want to do that. I didn't do it lightly. I didn't take it lightly.

But, you know, I'd like to, if I were i were being super super hyper critical of mobley i'd like to see some of the offense initiation be maybe a little bit smoother but it's still too early to even be like hey this is an issue but you love the passing with them i love all of it yeah he doesn't make mistakes he's fucking positioned perfectly his block rate that guy is insane so even if you're going all right well now you have garland and mitchell who defensively by the way mitchell you know it's funny because i'll hear like small guard, small guard. First of all, he's stout and his wingspan is 6'10". With that kind of wingspan and that kind of athleticism, you being anything below average as a defender is on you. That's an effort thing and like just you're not trying hard enough. Always pisses me off when I see a guy that's like, how are you not better defensively? And again, that Dallas thing, we've been over it already. But you're right, filtering to those bigs that are switchable

and seeing how much the defense completely fell apart. As much as I felt like the stats don't back it up much, but I'm not wrong about this. When I watch them on offense in a close, tight possession, last couple minutes, some of the Garland clutch offensive efficiency does dip down. It's not as dramatic as maybe my eyes were telling me. But they were asking a lot from him, though. I think that's Some of the Garland clutch offensive efficiency does dip down. It's not as dramatic as maybe my eyes were telling me.

But they were asking a lot from him, though. I think that's part of the problem. That's it. None of it to me is on him because I think he's a very willing teammate. I think they were just lost

because, you know, marketing to me is always kind of a disappointment. We can get into that part of it. Obviously, Sexton only played the 11 games. Levert's a mess. Okoro's not much offensively.

And you're just, you were left at so many Cleveland games at the very end going, I just wish they had another attacking guy. And they got one of the best ones you're ever going to get your hands on. I'm glad you mentioned Okoro because he's one of the winners of this trade.

Hey, Okoro, you're never going to have, we're never going to run and play for you. You're going to shoot corner threes, practice 5,000 a day and guard the other team's best guy. You have two jobs. That's it. We, you don't have to do anything else. You might have to run a couple. You made the wing on like two fast breaks a game. Other than that, you're in the corner and you guard the other team's best guy. And the Moby thing we've talked about him before. I think he has a chance to be like a transcendent defensive player,

like a really, really special forward who can guard basically everybody on the floor. He was kind of already doing that last year. So you think like for him, we've seen so many times like superstars come into the league and I'd be a potential superstars. Like look at LeBron, like those Cleveland teams he played on the first six years where, you know, Boozer leaves and they're just trying to play catch up and get dudes and Larry Hughes. And they just never had the right team around him.

Really, the only guy in the last 25 years who walked into the perfect situation was Duncan. Where he comes in, he's got Robinson next to him. He's got Popovich. They got veterans. And they're just immediately good. And I think that that's why the- Because they were already really good.

They don't win that year, but they were a 55 win team every year. So you look at Mobley, like this is about as good of a situation for somebody that I think has a chance to be like a top 75 guy all time. I really think it's in place for him if he can stay healthy.

So you can't come up with a better situation than this. They're going to be in playoff games every year. They have two scorers. He's going to be able to go at his own pace. We'll get to see the passing. And I guess the one thing I was surprised by was Mitchell goes from one small market to another. It did seem like the New York thing was, did you feel like it was just going to always be New York? Yeah, I'll tell you, man. When we've talked, whether it's on the air or off the air, the amount of hours that we've spent talking about how teams would be like, hey, they're going to hand the keys to this guy because of the

relationship and make sure it always happens. The Knicks ended up, well, I guess you could argue the relationship got them Brunson, but that's not what the expectation was. And not to say that from now on, no owner should give an agent the keys to the franchise, but the Leon Rose CAA thing, this was supposed to hey, you're in charge because you're going to have this relationship. And some

of the staff that they had done on some of the guys that we'd always heard, oh, that's going to be the guy, that's going to be the guy that needs to go after. But what would you have given up though? Do you want to do this now though? Because if it's Barrett and three unprotected picks, I'm not doing it. I'm just not.

I'd rather have Barrett. I'd rather have the picks and the capital for a trade down the road with the next unhappy superstar who's going to, by the way,

be available probably in two months. We have seen now with this league five times a year somebody's unhappy and available.. So do they have to go all in on Donovan Mitchell? It's like, no, there's more stars coming. You're still a big market. You have a lot of assets. They have a lot of players people like, even people like Quickly and Grimes, like those guys have some value. And I just, I wouldn't have done it. And I actually thought

it was smart to lock down Barrett and basically say, all right, he's not in the trade now. Because people were saying like, oh, he could be in if it's a poison pill. Get out of here. That's happened like once. They locked him down and they basically played chicken with Utah. And then Utah's like, all right, fine. But if I'm Utah, I can't be psyched about getting all these Cleveland picks

when that is like one of the best future teams we have. I just don't know what those picks, I think it's a good trade for them. It's probably the best one available, but I don't know if those picks ever amount to anything. Okay, but Shams did report that RJ and Quickly and 2 Unprotected were offered. And if that was offered to me and I'm Utah,

every day of the week, I'd rather have that deal than this Cleveland deal. 100%. So, So what happened? So it seems like Cleveland was in for a split second. They came out.

They did a public like, hey, we're done here. Like one of those deals. Yeah, but they really weren't. They was like, yeah, I'm out. I left the restaurant. Then they like circle around

and you come in the back. It just seems like Wynhorst was saying that there was some bad blood maybe because of the Barrett extension with the Knicks and Jazz because they had spent so much time on the deal. I don't know if that's true, but I trust Wynhorst. I think he has good sources, especially with some of those teams. But it does feel like if I'm Utah, like if we're advising Danny, a hundred times out of a hundred, I'm taking RJ and the two picks. I think RJ is really good. And I think he gives a shit. I think he's gotten better every single year.

And I just, I like the upside with him. I'm going to ask you, do GMs just want more unprotected picks and don't care about the player? Because at some point, as the GM, I go, which player am I getting that I like out of this group? And to RJ in comparison to these other three guys that I do want to spend some time on, it's not close. Maybe you and I like RJ too much. I'm with you. I felt like I saw something from him, just his mentality, the way he played this year,

a light went off with him. Yeah. You know, maybe he ends up not being a number two on a great team, but the fact I'm even thinking it's possible would make me on the other end go, I want RJ Barrett. I don't care about these other guys.

I don't care about a third unprotected and some pick swaps that probably aren't going to happen anyway. I want RJ Barrett and I want Nick's picks because I'm betting on the 21st century of the Knicks, which is that they've sucked every year and they've had two good moments in 22 years and the ownership's weird and there's a new person running the team every three years. Instead, I'm betting on the Cleveland picks where you have Mobley and Garland and Jared Allen and none of them are going anywhere. And now I have Mitchell on that team and there is just no variable now that that team is going to go in the

tank unless there's like a bus crash because they have four guys that they can build around and they can get more. They can get Kevin Love. As we said, they can flip him into something. They can always flip LaVert as an expirer. LaVert's still on. They have free agents. If you're a free agent, if you're like the Jay Crowder of the free agency, like that

swing guy who's like 32 years old, who wants to be on a great team, who's a 3 and D guy, Cleveland's on your list now. You know, it's like, I could be on that team. I just get to shoot wide open threes. I get to play with Evan Mobley. So I think we see that the same. I think that Knicks pick, or that Knicks trade,

if that was the offer, I like it more. But to answer your question about why do teams value these unprotected picks, because it buys the GM time. We always talk about this. You can't say anything.

You have the job now for five years, because what are people going to say? They're not going to be able to judge you on the players you have. This is kind of like Presti's black magic with OKC a little bit, even though I think we both think Presti's amazing. But the more

picks you accumulate and the more potential and the more, oh, this guy maybe sort of, kind of, you just get to keep your job. And I do think that's part of this. During the tanking fest, which has corrected itself a bit here, but that could also be cyclical

based on, you know, what the rosters look like. It's funny because Saruti and I were even talking about this the other day. We were talking about Westbrook, which I don't want to spend that time on, but it was just, you know,

usually there's always like a couple teams, maybe three and four that are so desperate and so talentless that they would just be like, fine, who cares? Let's sell some tickets, sell some jerseys.

Right. Like Charlotte this year. Right, but all the bad teams are interesting enough with some of the picks that they've stockpiled in a very short amount of time where it's like, even if I'm a bad team, I don't want to bring in Westbrook to disrupt things. So if you go back to prime tanking years

where it felt like a third of the league was already hoping to lose every single game, other GMs, and I'm sure you had the same conversations, the amount of resentment from the GMs are like, I'm trying to win games here. And this guy gets to keep his job and get an extension if he's awful after year three or four. And I do think the picks are part of that.

The Presti part of it where I always hear, again, it's just out there in the ether of like, well, how come everybody was always on Hinckley but not Presti? Do I need to spend more than 30 seconds explaining that to you? Presti's built up enough equity. He'd already had a run. He had a really successful group. Hinky was an unknown, and from day one it was embarrassing. The roster he was putting out there,

even though that was what he was trying to do. That's why the Ainge part of this, because I completely agree with the job security of having all these picks into the future, and it looks good. It's all these different announcements. Hell, the sports writers are going to give you props for second routers. What are they going to do when you have seven unprotected and four more swaps that might not even mean anything.

But Ainge isn't that guy, right? Ainge is a God in Utah. This was with a job. Everybody knew he was going to get for a really long time. We just didn't know when it was going to happen. All of us knew this was happening. Ryan Smith,

the owner loves them. They're golf buddies. And so for Ainge to go, hey, I have all these picks, I could see it if it was a different GM. But we're talking about somebody who's played and won championships, is a much better GM than he got credit

for, and was far better positioned with his roster with Boston on his way out despite people asking if he actually should be fired, which now you're removed from that. It looks like a joke, considering how set up that team is. And now he's in Utah, and I'm surprised. I'm surprised. I wouldn't think that he would prioritize the picks

in a way somebody who's more unproven is. I'm not saying that he doesn't want the picks, because clearly it's because of the Gobert thing, but I guess would Ainge tell us, hey, I actually like Colin Sexton and think he's just as good as RJ Barrett? That's hard for me to believe. That's just hard for me to believe. And the value, even if he thought there was a gap, that the value of the extra third pick, because you're absolutely right. Another first rounder unprotected from Cleveland, what would the odds be from a bookmaker on like, hey, how good are the picks going to be from Cleveland

in three or four years versus what they'd be with the Knicks, even with Mitchell? Well, it's like when Milwaukee traded all those picks for Drew Holiday. And it's like, well, Giannis is going to be in the team. I don't know what you think is going to happen with those picks. I still thought that was a lot of picks. Yeah, but unless you can kidnap Giannis.

I think with Utah, part of what I, just to be fair to them, if they're in the Wambanyama sweepstakes, which it's really them and it's San Antonio, who are the two teams that have gone, I think, all in on this now, at least for this year. And there'll probably be a couple teams that will

unfold as we head to December, January. And there's still some moves to be made here if you're Utah, too, whether it's McDonanovich or Conley or before camp opens up. But you have to keep getting rid of those guys. I think maybe they were worried Barrett comes in and now you have enough

kind of decent players. They still have good players and decent players in their roster. I just wonder if it's Colin Sexton is safe for Bet if you're tanking. Alright, we'll take a quick break. We're going to throw it to FanDuel. By the way, speaking of FanDuel, the Ringer NFL playoff boost,

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November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. So here is everything Danny Ainge and company did with Utah, blowing up Gold Bear and Mitchell, which we were begging them to do for what, a year and a half? I think you wanted it more than I did and you were right. I was always oddly patient with Utah because I felt like- I was not. They got Minnesota 23, 25, 27, and 29, four firsts. They have a pick swap with Minnesota in 26. Now they have Cleveland's 25, 27, and 29. They got pick swaps in 26 and 28. So they have a double pick swap in 26. They also got Walker Kessler and Vanderbilt from Minnesota, who are at least guys who could potentially be in a rotation. They turned Beverly into THT, who I don't think is a rotation guy, but whatever. They still have easilyasley to trade. A quick aside on THT.

I hope we get to see Jordan Clarkson and THT play together at the same time. Well, just from a hilarity standpoint. Yeah, so it'd be like Horton Tucker would be like, pass the fucking ball. And Clarkson's like, what? What do you mean? I just come out here and cook.

What do you do? Well, I also cook. Anyway, I'm just looking forward to it. THT is like the rare point forward who can't shoot. So what are you do? Well, I also cook. Anyway, I'm just looking forward to it. THT is like the, the rare point forward who can't shoot. So what are your skills? Clear out for me. I'm an 18% three point shooter.

Uh, and they also got Colin Sexton. They got Lori Markin and they got Ogbaji. Um, they still can trade Bogdanovich and Conley. They could still flip Sexton if they wanted. Beasley, they're clearly going to trade.

It is now like the most fun trade machine team we've had in eons because my guess is they're just going to get rid of everybody. Bogdanovich and Conley, I can't imagine they're on this team in December. Is this where the Westbrook

thing comes in where they just buy him out? Because I remember you were talking with Mannix on the landing spot for him. And like, what if the Pacers deal finally comes around, which I've spent a lot of time talking about where I can talk myself in and out of what it means. Because I think the most important thing is Westbrook not playing on the Lakers this year. Him not being there is more valuable than him being there. But the Pacers part of it, one of their reporters was like, he's immediately going to be bought out. He's immediately going to be bought out if you were traded to the Pacers. And it, one of their reporters was like, he's immediately going to be bought out. He's immediately going to be bought out if you were traded to the Pacers.

It may never play again. Yeah, so I thought, I was going to say, I was going to do in the opening because I really thought, I didn't know the Mitchell trade was happening. I was looking hard at the Grizzlies. Okay, that's interesting.

Because I just thought for the same reasons we like this trade for Cleveland, for the Grizzlies, it could have been Dylan Brooks, Stephen Adams expiring, Zaire Williams. They could have just dumped in all their picks, right? They could have done 23, 25, 27, 29 in a pick swap and maybe worked the Lakers into it where Dylan Brooks and Adams go to the Lakers. And now you can work some Lakers 27 and 29 in there. And Utah's just getting a shitload. And by the way, if I was the Grizzlies, I would have gone all in Mitchell. I don't think they have enough elite players. You know, if they could have kept Triple J and John Morant and Bain and added Mitchell,

I feel the same about them as I do about Cleveland right now. So I just think, I almost think they're too protective of their own guys. I don't know if they're ambitious enough trying to get frisky, but you look at what Cleveland gave up. Basically, Cleveland now is the East version of Memphis. Same kind of young nucleus. So I'm going to ask you this. Is Cleveland now the number one, I love their future team of the 2020s? And if it's not them, who is it? Here are the candidates. I'll give you the Celtics.

I'll give you Milwaukee because you get Giannis for the next five years at least. I'll give you Dallas with Luca. The Grizzlies, obviously. Golden State. OKC, you get all their picks and assets and all the stuff they have. Orlando just to make Cerruti happy. And let's say Houston. Throw New Orleans in there. Oh, I'm sorry. New Orleans. Okay. So who would you have in the number one spot now? Because you have New Orleans with all the guys they have and they still have all their picks so they can still make a move.

The Cleveland one feels the most certain if we're talking a longer window. You know what I mean? Like Golden State, Golden State, I think will be better. Clay will be better.

I would imagine one of at least the three young guys on top of what Poole's already done for them is going to show you something, you know, I'm not, I'm not sure,

you know, probably not moody. Maybe it's Wiseman. Maybe it's Kaminga. I don't know. Um, you look at Boston, like is Jalen on the team in two,

in two and a half years. Yeah. I mean, him not doing the extension was just smart. So yeah, I wouldn't worry about that too much. I, you know,

I don't know if the Durant stuff changes his mind about his future for all this. This is a complicated question. Cause I think I'm kind of falling in love with the tinsel a little bit more than the known. So if I say the Pelicans, if I say Cleveland as if they're the known thing, I'm just missing far

more established teams. I'm saying 2020. We look at the end of the decade. Which team did you like for the last seven years? Who is the safest asset? It's also going to change too. Right. Darius Garland's like, I need my own team. Moby's like, I need my own team.

Daniels is like, the system doesn't work for me. Yeah. Well, regardless, Cleveland's in the mix now, I think for best futures. And what's cool about this trade for them is rarely do you see the team make the move at like the perfect timing time when they have a young team like this, which is why I like the thing for Memphis. Yeah, because Garland's got his extension. Allen's 20 million a year.

Mobley's still, you know, you've got a couple years to work with that and figuring it out. You have the love, Levert stuff. The cap, by the time these guys really start cranking, the cap's going to have a massive spike here in three years again, which is why some of these extensions,

like it's another reason why I look at the Aiton extension. I'm like, so what did you guys do again? You wasted an entire year. You pissed off a guy, and you saved a couple mil, and actually by the time his contract is up, it's going to be the first year of a new TV agreement as opposed to the fifth year that carried over from the previous agreement. Congrats.

And by the way, that's not on James Jones. That's on ownership there. So once I started really thinking about that deal more and more, I'm like, yeah, congrats. That was a massive waste of fucking time for everybody. And it's actually not that smart financially. I'm glad you mentioned the TV agreement, by the way, because Cleveland has these dudes locked down. Allen 20, Mitchell's low 30s or mid 30s, whatever it is. By the way, every extension now is good.

Yeah, that was the appeal with Durant, where you think like, oh, year four in Durant, I get a guy basically for half price who's a superstar? Because people don't realize that the max guy in 2026 is going to be 75 million a year. I think people are properly prepared for the heart attack they're going to have, have when the Joakim Noah,

Evan Turner contract seemed like chumps change compared to where we're heading. That's why I, there's no content I love more than the NFL right guard complaining about a salary for an NBA player. And you're like, well, there's a few more of you dudes on a team.

Yeah. Four times as many. Yeah. So I have a couple more small things for you. So, so there's no way as far as I can tell, because unless I read this incorrectly, I don't think I did. LeBron cannot be traded in the 2022, 23 season. So that would have been an interesting subplot to all of this. But down the road this summer, maybe now this is the roadmap for him to come back for a third time, whether Cleveland would even want that to happen. Who knows? So we have that.

Cleveland, what do you think their odds are to win the title? I know you're not a huge odds guy, but what do you think they are after this trade? I think it's more about where do they fit in, in the East. And I think they got a chance to be fourth or fifth. Yeah, they're 33 to one be fourth or fifth. Yeah. They're 33 to one, which I thought was high.

It was pretty high. And maybe they're a year away from where we think ultimately they're going to be. But I also think there's a, this is now probably a 50 to 52 win team because we know all their guys are going to be playing. They're all young. You know, there's going to be no wear and tear.

If Jared Allen plays the full season, they might have won 50 games last year. So I think a mistake that you can make, and I almost made, because I was going through it again, being like, oh, you know, that's weird how they kind of finished sort of disappointing. Because I remember just constantly beginning of the year, I'm like, this team is this young and they play defense this well. They're a top five defense this long. And they were for like 50

games. And granted, everybody missed guys. So every fan base can kind of make that excuse that like, hey, our guys are out, our guys are out and all this stuff. But it's so clear that the Allen absence totally changed who they were. So if you look at them and say, oh, they're only 44 and 38 with younger players, you expect to be healthier with guys that all seem like they'd like to play as opposed to some of the more established tier one stars that are trying to figure out a way to lengthen the career

by demanding to miss 15 to 20 games a season, which again, maybe we're just kind of getting out of the COVID stuff and things are going to be a little bit normal where the top guys aren't missing on an average of 20 games here. But they're a better bet to probably, they would have been better. They're a better durability bet. Yeah, absolutely. And so you factor in kind of, like, I just think if you say, hey, they're not that great. They're a better durability bet. Yeah, absolutely. And so, you know, you factor in kind of,

like, I just think if you say, hey, they're not that great, they were only 44 and 38. I think that is making a mistake because we are talking about a younger team that showed when they were healthy, they were one of the better defensive teams in the league, which doesn't really happen with young teams that often.

And there was a little Ricky Wall stuff with Mobley too. The Sexton thing, they just lost this guy who was going to be a big scorer for them. Can we talk Sexton? I think we have to do some Sexton thing, they just lost this guy who's going to be a big scorer for them. Can we talk Sexton? I think we have to do some Sexton stuff here. This is a weird unintended outcome of this trade. I don't think either of us like to fit

a Sexton on this team. I think they had to re-up with him and keep him around and the whole thing, but it clearly became Garland's team last year, but Sexton, initiallyxton initially was his team. And I'm not sure that would have resolved itself in an awesome way. And now they don't have to worry about it. And he goes to Utah and we'll see what kind of ceiling he has. But it's weirdly,

in addition by subtraction, piece of this that I don't think people would be focused on. Yeah, I agree. I really felt like the Sexton absence. He played 11 games this past season. He had a meniscus tear. He's young enough. He's 23 years old. You feel like the meniscus stuff would be fine. But he's a really dynamic score.

That third year in the league, the guy was 24 a game, 48 from the floor, 37 from three. But the team's all stumped. They went 19 and 63 19 and 46 22 and 50 maybe that's why utah was intrigued by him they're like hey this guy's exactly what we're looking for 24 points a game and we're a 19 win team this sounds great yeah you know the shooting stuff kind of holds up like 38 from three and i And I get the attraction, but I can't help but think good stats, bad team guy.

I think it's fair. And the Sexton injury may have been the best thing that ever happened to Garland because if Sexton's healthy, even though he would have added that other dynamic attacking score, which he proved that he could do

in this league, like, hey, this guy's going to score in this league for a long time. I don't think there's any doubt about that. It was, you know, it's just, I think it would have been hard for Garland to take over the way he needed to if Sexton's like, look, I was a lottery pick too.

I've been here longer. I scored 24 a game. I'm looking for my contract extension. This might have been the absolute blessing for the development of the rest of this team because I still think Garland is more of a willing teammate. As much as he can score, I think he still wants to get other guys involved

where Sexton's like, look, I'm dynamic and kind of get out of the way. The other part of this too, which is funny because it's back in my Boston days when I would talk to Ainge every now and then. I mean, not all the time, but I was always interested in different- Guys who drink milk together?

Yeah, I would try not to swear. Milk and cookies? And I remember one time I said something to somebody else. I go, hey, I swear sometimes when I've talked to him. I go, is he going to? And he was like, you know what? I'm sure he doesn't care, but how about you just try not to? It's not like Ains, you know, NBA locker rooms his whole life.

He's just silently judging you. Right, right. He's like, oh, I really, I thought this guy, he was better at conveying his points without vulgarity. He brought up, you know, there's a lot of lessons there when I was younger and, you know, at times even impressionable,

but it was, I think, a really smart rule that I always think about when players change teams. It's like, wait, like think about Sexton. His own team didn't want to pay him. All right?

And not only did they not want to pay him, he was restricted. They said, go ahead, get your $80 million offer. Nobody else wanted to pay him either. And so for him at $18 million per, four for 72, that's not some terrible extension. We just went over this. It's all right if this guy's not even going to score a little bit.

But when I've seen some of the reaction today of like, hey, don't sleep on Sexton. Yeah, I think he can score a lot if he has the ball all the time. And the team's probably not going to be that good. But the NBA market told us that he wasn't really in demand. And I don't think it's an MCL thing at a young age. If it's okay, I'm going to sleep on him. I also think that's the easiest position to find somebody who can put up 20 points a game if they take a lot of shots. We have just an overload of dudes who you can find. Like right now, you can take Jordan Clarkson from Utah probably at a, what, 75% discount if you're interested

in taking on his contract for $13 million a year. So that's one of the reasons the Sexton market wasn't there. How would you compare and contrast Garland and Sexton to Max Kellerman leaving first take and opening the door for Steve Nye. Let's move on. By the way, Sexton had a 30% usage rate that year. He went nuts. But as you said, that team is bad. I have the next topic for you. If Steve Nye becomes president,

does Kellerman deserve credit? I think he should be in the cabinet. It's not like they didn't get along. I heard an unbelievable Greeny tease by the other way I thought of you. It was just, he still got it. He's still throwing a hundred miles an hour. He's still elite. No one's made more money off of teases.

Strippers have made less teasing people. Next topic. Do you think this was the biggest Cleveland Cavaliers trade ever? I'm going to give you nominees. No. Danny Ferry for Ron Harper and picks. Sean Kemp in that three-way deal where Vin Baker went to Seattle and Terrell Brandon went to Milwaukee.

Kyrie for Isaiah Thomas and what turned out to be the Sexton pick. So weirdly Kyrie has some umbilical cord to them getting Donovan Mitchell because they were able to get the Sexton pick. And then Love for Wiggins,

which I think would be my pick because that directly led to them winning a title. Oh, dude. Brad Doherty for Roy Henson. Oh, that's a good one. It's the best one.

That's why I said no immediately. Well, they never made the finals, though, with him. Yeah, but you got Brad Do Dory for Roy Henson. How did that happen? We've been over this. I feel like this is the fourth time we've talked about this. I could talk about it every week.

Man. And then the other thing with Cleveland, they have now, I assume this is going to be another run with them, right? So they have the Mark Price run from, I don't know, 88 to 94, where they're really fun to watch. And they're in the mix as a contender. They easily, if they'd been in the West, they easily could have had a Utah type run, I think. Then they have the first LeBron run from basically 06 to 2010. Then they have this other LeBron run from 15 to 18. And then now they're going to have,

I think, another run. To revive yourself three different times over the course of 30 years is hard. Would be my point. Yeah, because this is the whole point of doing this stuff. And that's why I like the Knicks going after Mitchell.

And I've made the point. I'm not telling you that they're in the top five. The East is tough now at the top. There's some depth there. And who knows what's going to happen with Toronto? There's always going to be one team that you don't expect to take a step back. And there's going to be another team that jumps up. Maybe Atlanta figures this thing out.

With DeJounte and Trey taking turns, they become less predictable offensively. That's not a ridiculous thought. Maybe there's one of these younger teams that hangs out for 50 games and makes it weird just like cleveland did last year but do you have a chance are you going in the right direction with the increase of talent on your roster and even though mitchell didn't guarantee anything and i thought there was going to be some real parallels to mellow where it's like coming home and you're like he's from baltimore but whatever and then it's like you know it's it's like connecticut yeah now what it's like oh you get that pace or series loss and it didn't really add up to anything but it doesn't, you know, it's like Connecticut. Yeah. Now what? And it's like, oh, you get that pace or series loss. And it didn't really add up to anything, but it doesn't mean you don't try.

Right. It doesn't mean that you don't try to keep adding players. And maybe Mitchell goes on a little bit of a run. There's Brunson there. And maybe the next mad guy like gets along with Mitchell and he decides that he wants to go there and maybe Barrett is, you know what I mean? So everybody wants these trades to like guarantee stuff. Like if you're going on TV tomorrow saying

this guarantees Cleveland nothing, congrats. You win the obvious award. But the fact now that you have a guy that is this proven in the playoffs, forget about this Dallas series. He's young enough for you to forget about this Dallas series. That he did what he did in the Mitchell and Murray showdown against Denver. That is all

time playoff shit, man. Well, think about them against Brooklyn. Let's say they play Brooklyn in round one. Kyrie's out there with Curry. And then Cleveland's like, all right, here's Mitchell and Garland. Good luck. Kyrie, who are you guarding

out of these two? Or Seth Curry? What are you going to do against it? Same thing for Philly. They'll probably stick their worst guy in Okoro going, hey. Right. I mean, that's the chess match. Who does Harden?

Harden's got some, like, I just think it's so hard when you have these two guys because the thing, it's not just that they're scoring guards, but both of them can attack.

And that's, I just think they're going to be really hard to play. You know? Both of them, I think, are, would you say, top five or six for guards that actually can get to the rim and then also pull up? If Kyrie's healthy, they're still probably almost know what I put ahead of him.

Yeah, Kyrie's in there. Who else is in there for that list? Westbrook and China. Westbrook's going to get traded to Utah for some of these pieces, and Ainge is going to get first-round picks from them. That's the next piece of this. I'm predicting that now.

If you start looking at the leftover guys, there's still some valuable pieces there if you're a contending team saying, hey, you're now fourth or fifth or whatever, and then the buyout would happen. You mentioned it too, and we probably should have thrown Oklahoma City into that tanking part of this because I don't think all of a sudden things are all going to work out. Well, now with Chet. Yeah, you're right. They're in there too. Honestly, dude, even with Chet. I don't know they're going to be asking him to have the offense

go through him for 76 games this year. But yeah, that makes it a little bit more certain. You know, Presti probably with ownership could say, hey, you know, Victor, the French guy, he's worth it to take another year at this thing. So I do want to add one more thing on the Utah side of this as it pertains to like the Barrett thing. Because I think part of the justification will be, well, wait a minute, as you even mentioned,

like, is Barrett too good? Oh, that screws up our chances at Wembaiana. That's a really, you you know that's a dangerous game to play yeah the percentages are against you with tanking too yeah like hey i like imagine and i'm not even saying age is doing this i actually don't even know that i believe that he would but i think it will be explained in some circles this way as if well the better way to tank to get the big French guy is to make sure we make trades where we get lesser players back. I don't know that you want to do business that way. And I'm not even saying that's what happened. I just fear that some people will explain it this

way. Last thing on the Knicks, and then we can wrap. I just feel like there's more dudes out there. For instance, you just mentioned OKC. Are we sure you can't get SGA from OKC? Are we sure? Oh, no, I totally agree with you. And by the way, are we sure? Like the 80% of the haul for Mitchell, which I think was what it,

SGA would cost somewhere, probably a little more than DeJounte Murray and less than Mitchell somewhere in there. If I'm the Knicks, is that a better outcome? If I can keep RJ Barrett and add SGA and I can throw some unprotected picks in there and Grimes and whoever, and if I'm OKC, how many years in a row can you tell SGA like, hey man, it's not going to be this year again? It's just like, it'd be like if you worked for the ringer and we just never ran your podcast for three years. It'd be like, hey, great job. I heard the test podcast you did.

People would have loved that one. But yeah, same thing next Thursday, just do another podcast for no people. Like at some point you lose your mind if you're just on these shitty teams that are never headed anywhere. And the Chet thing makes me wonder if SGA is going to be

available. I had heard he was available before. I had heard too, which is why I brought it up. And you have the Knicks, the Kentucky, you know, the umbilical cord there. And I just like... Because it's worked so well. The Knicks-Kentucky thing

is really... It's just hard for me to believe that that's not going to become a story at some point, whether it's a fake story, a half story. And then the other one would be Davis. If this Lakers situation goes completely sideways this year, would they basically offer exactly what they offered for Mitchell or some other version of it for Davis? And would the Lakers look at that as like,

look, man, this just didn't work. I don't think that's going to happen because I think they're going to go the other way. I think they're going to use Westbrook with their picks to get Bogdanovich and Mike Conley and something else. And that's how this is going to play out. But I don't know. I'm just trying to think of other people.

If I'm the Knicks, who else is going to be down there down the road and it's to me it's SGA and Davis are the first two guys I thought of a lot of it depends on SGA I haven't heard anything about him being frustrated but as you laid out like at some point you'd want to play like I think Danny Cannell's the only pro athlete I know that would be thrilled to be SGA right now. And as far as like, if you're going to offer me max money to do podcasts for nobody for three years, I'll just have, I'll pick up a couple hobbies, man.

You just go into the gym like, man, you should have heard, nobody can hear the podcast I did today, but I was one of my best ones. I didn't even tweet a link. SGA is like, I had 27 today. It wasn't even on League Pass. They don't show our games anymore.

Um, all right, well, we'll see what happens. What would you tell the Knicks fan friend in your life, by the way? Because the Knicks fan friends of my life are split. I don't think either of them wanted to overpay for Mitchell. I think they all wanted to keep RJ, at least everyone in my life and are kind of relieved that this didn't work out. But at the same time, the Knicks kind of seemed inept. Right?

It seemed like they were all over the map with this. And it's hard for me to think if I'm a Knicks fan, we're in the right hand with these guys. I would have liked to add Mitchell. I think it's clear we're very pro-Mitchell. But we're not saying he solves everything. Which, again, is very important. There's nothing easier if you do this job to be like oh I'm just going to be the dickhead in the chair across from a desk for you that just says oh what is it you know do you win anything

I'm like no most of the time the answer if the game is I have to say yes that it guarantees that you're going to win then I'm going to lose the game almost every single time that's not what it is I wonder too as we're surprised by deals especially when this is this important and you're trying to keep the information close and you don't want to show your cars and all this stuff i imagine there's certain moments where maybe the knicks were again this is all guessing the knicks were like that cleveland package isn't that good like we'll just wait this out we'll just wait this out they're not gonna take that they're not gonna do oh they did it and they signed sexton like i imagine there's plenty of moments where other teams are blown away by what everybody else

did which i would uh submit the Gobert trade as an example of other people around the league being like, are you kidding me? Now that's supposed to be the price. But again, that was different because I don't think any of those players, other than Vanderbilt, you know, and I know Beverly, you got something after the fact.

I like where Utah landed with, I just, they got way more picks and assets than I would have thought for Mitchell and Gobert, especially Gobert, which we, I mean, they got 200 cents in the dollar for Gobert. I will always believe that until I die. Whether that works out for Minnesota or whatever,

but I just know that the actual package that they got for Gobert was twice as much as I thought he was going to go for. But the interesting thing about that too, like the player part of it, like Beverly, okay, decent rotation guy and a good team. Seems to kind of,

after a while, like runs its course and teams are like, all right. He's like swordfish in the fridge. You can keep it for like two days, but that third day, you're going to keep moving.

I'm surprised you're freezing any produce over there. No, that's my wife. My wife will like take home fish from dinner. It's like, what's going to happen with this? Two days, right? You can throw that out that's some that's that surprises me i'm writing this down um but whenever i would hear like you know the gobert trade okay well

that sets the market for the net i don't know i would just hang up i could be like say that that was on them to do that doesn't mean i have to do it and then it's completely dismissive like even if you're going back to the jalen brown durant stuff you're like oh right so i'm supposed to give you jalen brown and six picks because gobert would like are we ever going to factor in who the actual players are in these deals but back to the original question on the next thing i think the positive in this is that the perceived value of obie toppin and grimes are through the roof which i was not aware of right those guys get talked about. I'd be reading those rumors going, hey, can I have anybody good?

And no, look, Grimes may turn into something here. Toppin is giving us samples of this big man, this five in a small lineup. But again, if I'm trading Mitchell at 25 and flirting with all NBA votes, I guess I'd be maybe outdated as a GM, but I'd be like, can I get a player back I like? But that's not how the trades necessarily always work.

Yeah, Grimes had a couple summer league games and all of a sudden he became like Kevin Johnson in the late 80s as a trade asset. Like the Desmond Bain part. Back to your Memphis thing.

We all love Desmond Bain. He's untouchable. If he was the deal breaker, that doesn't make sense to me. I think, to me, if we did winners and losers, Memphis is one of the losers because I think they had a pretty unique chance to go up a notch and not really affect

their best three or their best two, whatever it was. All right, Rosilla, big college football weekend this weekend. I know you're pumped. I know you talked about it on your podcast. And the next time we see you on this one, me and House will be doing NBA over-unders, which is weirdly five weeks away.

The NBA season starts on October 18th this year. Don't even start. October 18th. I was passionate about this podcast. I don't want to even think about that being five weeks away. Preparing the over-unders. Good to see you, Russell. Thanks.

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All right, we're taping this Thursday afternoon. Come on, be more excited than this. We're taping this Thursday afternoon! Yeah! We made it! Our buddy Cousin Sal is here. Come on, be more excited than this. We're taping this Thursday afternoon. Yeah. We made it. Our buddy Cousin Sal is here. It's our favorite stretch of the year. It's the seven days before the first game of the season.

This is when it's a bet frenzy. There's been some value lost, especially on your team in the NFC East. There's been a little Eagles-Cowboys, a little momentum shift. This is the most nervous you are going into a Patriots season in how many years? I'm not nervous.

I actually am at peace already. We're probably going 6-11. I'm fine with that. All right, this is the most concerned you are with the team's ability to win games. This is the most concerned I am with my relationship with Nephew Kyle because he does not like the pessimism. I just don't see a case for the Pats. They're over under eight and a half.

And it just... You just yelled at someone. Who'd you yell? A sharp or someone for saying under or something? Then you yelled at them. I know. I've been in denial. I've been in denial.

Sometimes I'm too happy with my team. Let's get to it. Let's go. Let's go through. We'll do AFC first. We're going to do NFC. We're going to try to do this in 90 minutes or less. And then on Sunday, we're going to do Guess the Lines.

Okay. So, AFC. We'll start in the AFC East. And we on Sunday, we're going to do Guess the Lines. Okay. So, AFC, we'll start in the AFC East and we have Buffalo who, all right, I'm going to do, can I do a Buffalo rant here?

Buffalo's over under 11 and a half. This would be the time, yeah. 11 and a half. They're minus 230 for the division. They are one of the

Super Bowl favorites, plus 650. This is all in FanDuel. They are number one seed in the AFC, plus 280. And they're just being penciled in.

Yeah. And I guess my question is this. Are we sure Buffalo is this good? What was their record last year? It was 11 and 6. They were 11 and 6. It was 11 and 6. And they're over on those 11 and a half.

Go look at their wins last year. It was like KC week five. They beat the Pats twice, including the playoffs. And they beat Miami. I think those were the only three above 500 teams they beat. They played a bunch of shit quarterbacks. The schedule's much harder this year. I know we already

mailed each other, I guess, the Lions for week one. They're favored in this Rams game in LA, and they're just being treated like they're the 2018 Chiefs. It's a little ambitious to me. The question is, are they going to be more like that garbage team that lost

to the Jaguars? Remember that? Then they scored like nine points or something. Or are they going to be more like the team that just shit all over your team in the playoffs and then continued on against the Chiefs? I just think they're going to be an offensive force. I do worry about their secondary a little bit. Von Miller is a

nice piece, but I don't think he turns things around. You look at his sacks total, it's 7.5. I don't think a 33-year-old who's coming off of 4, 5, and 5 sacks, I could do player props for 7.5 hours. But I love this offense. I really do. And they have the number one scoring defense in 2021. I trust McDermott.

I trust their coach. I trust their quarterback. And right there, I know they're at KC, Tennessee, and at the Rams are their extra three games. And they end with your Patriots week 18, but I love what they're doing. I think they're a 13 win team. Here's what I don't get. Everybody is like in Buffalo, one of the best rosters in the league. I did this whole psychotic thing where I tried to figure out the almost elite

and elite players on every team. And I was stunned by some of the kind of the outcomes, including like how good the Chargers roster is.

Like when you really lay it out, they have like 11 or 12 like elite or almost elite guys. You love it. That's who everyone's penciling into the Super Bowl. Since he was another one.

Chargers, right. The Tampa, I think when you just look at how many blue chip and red chip guys they have. Yeah. Way higher than you think. And then you get to Buffalo. And, you know, I'm sorry. Like, Allen's there, obviously.

You have Diggs and Gabe Davis. Von Miller. You got White, who's coming off an ACL. And then the two safeties. He's on PUP. I don't even think we're going to see him for the first month. Right. And then Hyde and PoO and then the two safeties he's on PUP I don't even think we're going to see him for the first month right

and then Hyde and Poirier the two safeties yeah they basically have seven guys who have a chance to make an all pro team right so if you're going all in

on this Buffalo 13 and 4 thing you're basically saying Allen is going to be by far the best quarterback in the league and to me I just look at them versus Mahomes

Mahomes KC has a better team they've had they've been in more you know more wars during the playoffs the last five years. Coaching staff that every year they win 10 to 12 games. And I don't understand why KC everybody's worried about. And then Buffalo, I was like, oh, yeah, Buffalo. I just don't get it. Yeah.

All right. I don't understand why people worry about KC either. I think that's a winning team. I think that's a playoff team. People are getting cute, putting them in last place and stuff like that. It's because of Tyreek Hill. It's like, oh, they don't have Tyreek Hill anymore. I think that's a playoff team. People are getting cute putting them in last place and stuff like that. It's because of Tyreek Hill. It's like,

oh, they don't have Tyreek Hill anymore. So they're not a playoff team now? Yeah, it's really stupid. They used all his money. They put it, you know, they doubled down on offensive line spending.

They got some draft picks. Mahomes had a, had four touchdowns in a quarter against the Raiders in a game that Tyreek Hill didn't play. So we'll get to the Chiefs.

It doesn't really matter. But, uh, so I like, I don't love this division. Everyone's like, this division got better. Everybody got better. The Bills and the Patriots got better than the Dolphins. So, all right.

So I could see a five and one in the division. And then what do you have to go the rest of the way to go 13 and four, eight and three? I think they're right there, around 12. And I have them as best record in football at plus 750. So 13 and four. Yeah, I'm sticking with them. I'm doing a slight under. have them as best record in the uh in football at plus 750 so they're oh interesting yeah i'm sticking with them i'm doing a slight under i wouldn't bet it but the under is 11 and a half you get action on the under it's plus 115 on fanduel and i just feel like they're gonna be

10 and 7 11 and 6 12 and 5 i do not see 13 and 4 do Do you worry about Thanksgiving against Detroit? Now that Boyle and Blau are cut. Do you have Detroit as... There's going to be a weird playoff team in the NFC, right? I got it. Detroit's on the list for me for a possible weird playoff team. I think that's a harder game than usual. Right. And they got Cincinnati at Cincinnati on a Monday night, week 17.

Pat's game, week 18. It doesn't help when you're in first place. You have to play these first place schedules. It sucks. Well, here's the other thing with the over. They might have the division clinch with three games left. And then against New England. You know, and then they're like, they're 11 and five,

and then they just throw away the 11 and six games. The Packers, same thing, same analysis with the over-under. They end against Detroit. That game might not matter. It didn't matter last year. Could be the same thing. I'm going to lean over. I think there's going to be a lot of slugfests,

and they're going to be in the high 30s, low 40s for most of them. Okay, but we don't have a lot. Neither of that, that's not a lock for either of those. Is that a lock for you? What do you mean a lock? I mean, it's a game and a half difference. We're going to do like seven or eight locks that we're just like all in on. I think it's close.

All right, we'll mark it down. Miami's over is eight and a5. There's been a lot of action on it. It's minus 135. You don't even put the Patriots second. They're both 8.5, if you understand. I don't. There's been more action. Well, ironically, it's probably going to come down to week one, Miami hosting

New England for how this 8.5 goes because both of those teams are kind of right around 500. Absolutely. I love the week one slate, right? It's really good. They did a nice job. They did. They purposely backed the Seattle-Denver and everything else, and now this Carolina-Cleveland's great,

and Miami-New England is terrific too. Can I say this? I think it's a must win for Miami because they go at Baltimore week two, home Buffalo week three, at Cincinnati week four on a Thursday night. And that could be, if they lose that Pats game, they could be looking at 0-4,

especially if Baltimore is regressing in the positive way, like everybody seems to think. I have them as an over because I don't see how there would be two, how there would be three under 500 teams in this division. And I think you basically have to pick between Miami and New England. Listen, the Tua thing, I just don't see it. I'm not in. I'm out. But I don't feel strongly enough about it where I'm like,

I'm out, I'm under just because of Tua. Because there's a world where they have so much speed with their receivers that he might be okay. So I'm scared of them. I'm staying away. I thought the same thing. I have to pick between the Dolphins and Patriots, right? And I like the range of eight to nine for both of them. I really do. So which one's going to win nine, which is going to win eight. I picked the Dolphins to win eight. I don't trust this Mike McDaniel. When you don't trust the quarterback

and the coach, what are you supposed to do? Right? We're going to get to the Eagles. Same kind of thing. Everyone's putting them in the Superbowl.. I don't trust the QB or the coach to make decisions. I don't like my coach either. That's for damn sure. But Mike McDaniel is like a run specialist for San Francisco. They surrounded. Do you wonder that if they surrounded Tua with all this talent or were they counting on Brady leading this team?

This seems like for everything they did, the parts they put around them, the draft and all the free agency. I mean, for God's sakes, with Chase Edmonds, Tyreek Hill, Cedric Wilson, Connor Williams on the line, Teron Armstead, they franchise Gasicki. It seems like they made this for Tom Brady, and then he bailed. And it's like, all right, Tua. Hey, and by the way, they made him a captain today.

I don't know if you saw it. So it's like, yeah, we really love you. No, trust me, we really love you. I think this is an eight-win team. I'll tell you, yeah, we really love you. No, trust me. We really love you. Oh, my God. I think this is an eight-win team. I'll tell you what. I think Teddy Bridgewater gets six of those wins. I think they're one and four after five wins.

Wow. So you think Tua, by the time we get to the Jets game, is no longer the QB. That's exactly the game. I like that call. That's it. I think that's my big swing there. I think they're one and four after the Jet game.

You know what's interesting about Tua? He's turned into this weirdly polarizing QB where if I think it's a very fair opinion to say, I don't see it. He doesn't move around well enough. I haven't seen enough from him as a thrower. I'm not scared when I bet against him and it seemed like they were really gimmicking the

offense to try to make him succeed. I don't see it. And the Tua fans get so mad. Like, oh, okay, you'll find out! It's like, settle down. This is just my sports opinion. I don't have anything. It would be great if Tua was good. It would be the league's more fun if we had more fun quarterbacks. I just

personally wasn't scared of him at all playing against him or betting against him. Yeah. And now this is this game you would normally be scared about. You probably are anyway, but because the Dolphins give the Patriots a fit, I think you go there and win. I have a Brady you would normally be scared about. You probably are anyway, but because the Dolphins give the Patriots a fit. Yes. I think you go there and win. I have a Brady Belichick thing,

which is a little tainted by the fact that Brady won the Super Bowl. It's one of those breakups where I feel like everybody's worse off. Yeah. Like, Brady's offseason has been one of the

all-time weirdest offseasons. We call it the Mike and the Mad Dog. Any great athlete has had. Is that the Mike and the Mad Dog? Yeah. I think, well, but you could say, well, you know, Mad Dog made

a ton of money from serious, and Mad Dog was number one, and Brady won a Super Bowl. But I'm just like, where they are right now, where Belichick, people in Boston, I have friends who are like, he should probably retire soon. Like, that's in the mix now. He's done such a bad job with the coaching staff with the last six drafts. And Brady has just

gone off the rails. This is like turning into Tom Cruise jumping on the Oprah sofa. I don't know what's going on. He took 10 days off in the middle of the preseason. It's a page six article. I just popped up as I was pulling up. About how she's not living. Yeah. Is that what's happening? All kinds of gossip stuff. Yeah. I'm not sure they're living in the same place anymore. Who knows? I mean, would it surprise you if Brady retired in week four? No. I think it wouldn't be surprising, right? He was gone, right, for 10 days.

Let me ask you this. Remember I used to have the Tyson zone, which was one of my better ideas, where it's like, you would believe any story about Mike Tyson. Oh, right. Yeah, yeah. Name the story. Mike Tyson was found in the Las Vegas Zoo fighting a tiger. I kind of believe that. That makes sense. Then Trump came in, and then we had the Trump like Mike Tyson was found in the Las Vegas Zoo fighting a tiger. And you'd be like, I kind of believe that.

That makes sense. Then Trump came in and then we had the Trump zone. There was like, when he was president, there was no story that could be about Trump that I wouldn't believe. You'd name the story. I'm starting to feel the same way about Brady. I was talking about this the other day. Like, this is like the National Enquirer. There's no story in the National Enquirer.

Remember when we used to laugh at the National Enquirer? And now there is no story in sports or politics or anything that you wouldn't believe. Brady retired and unretired. He signed a $350 million deal with Fox that nobody even knows if he's going to announce one game for them. Nobody even knows if he's going to be a good announcer. He came back. He might've gotten the coach fired. He didn't. He was going to sign with Miami and he was basically negotiating with them while he was on the pats and it fell through. And walked away on stage.

Yeah. And Las Vegas and Dana White got involved. And Dana White had this whole story about Vegas and then ends up on Tampa. And just left. Okay, it's Arians. Kicked him to the curb. Got Arians fired. He left the preseason for 10 days.

He came back. I don't know what's going on with his hair anymore. Yeah. Where it's like, it's a middle't know what's going on with his hair anymore. Yeah. Where it's like, it's a middle part and it's like a cherry red. Right. And it's up high. You are in love. Look at you.

Yeah. I'm really worried about him. I love the guy. But that's why I think he could be gone in a month. He really could. That's why under is all over the place for the Bucs. But anyway. All right, wait, can you set that line for us?

So Brady is playing in the NFL in week 8 over would you say like minus 350 like how high would you set that line before you

it started to make you nervous cause everything uh 550 though I think this is a we've bet on a lot of fights where the favorite was minus 550

and we lost right that feels about right so it's like plus 475 that he's not playing yeah yeah right in there well Miami's either going to go 8-9 or 9-8. I think the Pats

are definitely going under. And I'll tell you this, the Pats over-under is 8.5. Kyle, I'm sorry. Put earmuffs on, Kyle. The Pats to have six or less wins on FanDuel is plus 280. The Pats to finish 6-11 exactly

is 7-1. Wow. And I went through their schedule and I mean, you can imagine as you know, we've both known Hench for a long, long time. Hench is doing a podcast on your podcast network. The text I get from Hench, there was a tweet

thing about Belichick's last three drafts and how he went 2-13. And I thought Hench, I thought he was going to have to leave the state. He was so upset. I thought the text thread was over and then he'd have another text about it. He had more thoughts.

Yeah. I don't know what to say other than they don't need to be talented to win. You know what I'm saying? But this is when we used to have good coaching staff. Do we have good coaching staff anymore? We don't have Skarnecchia. We don't have Flores.

You're excited about Devontae Park, and then you're like, oh, man, he was worse than the league in separation. Like, oh, man, they're not doing Mac Jones in any of the favors they're doing Tua. But I still think this team, and I've heard people talk about how they're going to have the worst record in the league

at 50-1. No way. No way. That's why his basement, Belichick, I think is six wins. I really do. That's not happening. No way. No way. That's why his basement, Belichick, I think is six wins. I really do. It's a brutal schedule because they're going at Miami,

at Pittsburgh, first two weeks. Yeah. And I'm a little more afraid of Pittsburgh than some people. Baltimore week three, at Green Bay week four, Detroit week five,

at home, which seems easy. Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Jets. Yeah, then it starts to get a little easier. I'm going under. I don't think they're a 500 team. Even like that talent thing I mentioned. Other than Matthew Slater,

they might not have an all-pro on the roster. When you think like the Chargers, how loaded the Chargers are at quarterback and receiver and tackle and cornerback and pass rushers. Like the spot side, if you're going to be a great team, the Chargers have elite guys

at all those positions. But that's what I mean. They're all names. You have no names. You started a wide receiver at cornerback and it worked out. I know that was years ago. I get it.

It was years ago. I get it. But your real question is, which Mac Jones are you getting? The one who threw for 69% in the first 13 games or 61% in the last month or so? Well, they have good running backs.

They have good safeties. And I thought Thornton had a chance to be like a special rookie. And of course, he broke his collarbone. He's out until week eight. But they're paying $72 million, I think, for receivers and tight ends. And they don't have a number one guy. How does that happen? I'm with you.

And they take a big swing in the draft. I don't want to talk about the Pats. Can we move on 9-8 let's do it I have the Jets I have the Jets under as well so I have I have three unders

in this division Jets are 5.5 wins it's plus 125 under I don't know why everyone got excited about the Jets and was like

they had an amazing draft well did you watch the preseason like Brees Brees Hall was terrible in the preseason you can't go by that. I know.

The Zach Wilson thing hurts. Obviously, the Becton thing hurts. I cautiously am going over five and a half, although you're paying juice. I don't know why I'm doing it, but I like six and 11. I know. How do you get excited for a team that's 0-12

the last two years against the AFC East? To me, this is like, just play it safe. Just go under? Just go under. Just go under with the Jets. Just that's what you have to do. At Seattle, Jacksonville, and at Denver, they're kind of winnable games there. They have a weird schedule in that they play the AFC North

in their first four games. So it's going to be an interesting team. And you know, they'll lose the teams they should beat, and they'll beat one or two teams they should lose to. Draft was great. Never is like that. Gardner, Wilson, right? Well, look at their road games.

Because they have the AFC North, and they're at Cleveland and Pittsburgh. They're at Green Bay, at Denver. They're at the Pats, obviously, and at Buffalo, obviously. At Minnesota. At Seattle late, and then they finish at Miami. It's not an easy road game out of those eight

that I feel awesome about. No, but when do they win on the road anyway? Just winnable games are Seattle, Jacksonville, Detroit, Chicago for sure. Who else? I don't see the elite guys on the roster. I had them on my rankings as the lowest elite player team. I had Mosley

as an almost elite and Reed as an almost elite and that's it. Two guys. So the receivers like Garrett Wilson maybe. I didn't put rookies on there because who the hell knows. That Laken Tomlinson is pretty good. That guard picked up from the 49ers. We're canceling the rest of this podcast because it looks

like the Cavs traded for Donovan Mitchell. It was great to see you. We're going to take a break and come back with Donovan. They really did. Apparently... Who cares? The NBA a-hole is here. The Cavs have traded for Donovan Mitchell.

Good. It doesn't matter. What are you going to do about basketball? It's going away. Where's it going? You had a dismal. What are you going to do about basketball? It's going away. You really had to. Where's it going? You had a dismal season. Not you specifically, but the NBA. It was shameful.

54% of the playoff games were 10-point blowouts or worse. And then we have this offseason with Kevin Durant. Who was making money? You. You were betting biggest lead every game. I did win money, but well. Aren't you worried about your league? How does this go away?

I'm not worried. I'm worried about the Pats. I'm not worried about the NBA. There's going to be blowouts all over the place. You embarrass yourself with this Kevin Durant thing. Reaching out to our mutual friend, Chris Bianco. He's going to be in Phoenix. He's going.

I was like, yeah, okay. Let's see. Come on. Enough already. Enough. You want to do the AFC North quick? Yeah. I don't want to do basketball.

All right. AFC North. So I want to start to do basketball. All right, AFC North. So I want to start with Cincy. Really? Who does not have the highest over-under. Nine and a half. It's nine and a half. Baltimore is 10 and a half.

So this is my crazy pills team. Cincinnati, like everybody's back from last season. They have Burrow and Chase, two absolute elite players in their positions on rookie contracts. It's like a miracle. The two best players on your team and two of the best players in the AFC

are on rookie contracts. They beefed up their offensive line. They have a couple of elite guys on defense. They were good last year. They got the best kicker other than Tucker in the league. I don't see the hangover thing at all. I think... But did anyone ever see it? I don't see the hangover thing at all. I think like,

but did anyone ever see it? Do we ever see the hangover thing for the losing Super Bowl team? Yeah, there's signs. Usually like somebody left or the, the, the offensive coordinator left or some of that stuff. None of that stuff happened with them. Yeah.

They're not going to go 10 and seven. I have them at 11 and six. The last, I have them as a playoff team at 10 and seven, which is good enough to put them over. But the last six Super Bowl losers averaged 8.8 wins the following year. And granted, most of those were with a 16-game schedule. But here's my counter.

I don't think they should have made the Super Bowl last year. I think this was the year for them. And last year, they kind of snuck in because Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry's hurt. Tannehill just took a shit in that game. Yeah, you could start before that. Like, everyone's quarterback in that division. Right, Baltimore had the worst

injury luck ever. I feel like this is the year for them that last year. They're plus 170 for the division. 10 plus wins, they're minus 120. AFC one seed,

they're 10 to one because I think it's going to be hard to have a one seed come out of the AFC West with how deep that division is. So you're basically looking at Buffalo or Cincy. And I think Cincy has more talent than to have a one seed come out of the AFC West with how deep that division is. So you're basically looking at Buffalo or Cincy. And I think Cincy has more talent than Buffalo.

I had them in my rankings. I had them as elite players as 30.5 and I had Buffalo at 20.5. What is this system you have? These are all their good guys. Burrow, Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Kappa, Hendrickson, Reeder, Hubbard, Awuzie, Hilton, Bates, McPherson. That's like half the guys you play are elite or almost elite. More than anything, they seem to have fixed the offensive line problem. He's been sacked 70 times.

Way better this year. 70 times in 20 games. They have Kappa. They have LLA Collins, who likes to start fights. They did a nice job there. They have Hunter Hurst at tight end. Might not be an upgrade, but I'm with you. I think they're a 10-win team.

I think they got lucky. They're better, but they also got lucky last year. So why don't we put them just at 10 wins and give the division to the team who had everybody out and still competed and was still 8-9 last year, the Ravens. So here's my take on that. Since he's plus 170 to win the division, and Baltimore is plus

145, I'll accept the case that they're even, but I will not accept the case that Baltimore should have a win higher and over under and they should be the favorites in the division when as far as I can see, unless Bateman is awesome, which by all the preseason hype,

everybody's going nuts about him. I get it. But they need him to be awesome because he's the only receiver that anyone's ever even heard of on this team. Andrews they have. Dobbins coming off an ACL. And I know they're fixing the offense

to try to unleash Lamar. Does Lamar thing make you nervous? Lamar, Stanley, Humphrey, Peters, Dobbins, Gus Edwards. The other thing is, 17 of the last 19 years, a team has gone from Worst to first Yeah

It's gotta be If there's any team It's gotta be the Ravens So they were 4th In that division Yeah It wasn't Pittsburgh 8 and 9

Here's the thing We're probably both right And it probably comes down To January 8th When they play Baltimore In Cincinnati That's the last game Well I was looking at

There's 6 teams That have averaged 10 wins a game In the last 9 years KC has 103 game. Well, I was looking at there's six teams that have averaged 10 wins a game in the last nine years. KC has 103. New England won 103 in the last nine. Seattle, 94. Green Bay, 92. Pittsburgh, 91. New Orleans, 90. And Baltimore's at 83. And that includes

last year's shit year. I thought they were going to be higher. I thought there was like a Harbaugh infrastructure. Yeah, sure. I like Cincy more. So you would take Baltimore to win the division. I would take Cincy. 12-5, over 10.5. But I also have Cincinnati as a wildcard team,

over 9.5. I hate this under, and I hate the over. I have them at like 10-7, so I'm going to go slight under. I wouldn't bet it. I would bet the Cincy. I'm going slight under. Pretty good. Inverse Miami. Hereomatic win against the Jets there. Pretty good.

Inverse Miami. Here's another one I got. Cleveland. Cleveland's 8.5. It's plus 135 action on the over. Minus 160 in the under there. Plus 370 in the wind division. Their six or less wins bet on Fandle is plus 176.

It doesn't have to be Fandle. You can go wherever you want. You can chop that around. Yeah. And then what else? You watched Jacoby Brissett last year, right? Yeah.

When he came in in Miami, it's like, you know what? This guy's going to be better than Tua. Right. This guy's, you know, he's done, he's had

some moments. We did that a lot. He was fucking terrible. Why do we do that, though? We did that with the Ravens, too. Oh, Huntley's better

than Lamar Jackson. Why do we, what's wrong with us? Jacoby Brissett was terrible last year. I think he was one of with us? Chicago set was terrible last year. I think he was one of the three worst quarterbacks I watched last year. So, he's playing the first 11 games for Cleveland.

And, you know, they have some tough ones in there, right? They have, they're at Baltimore, home since he, they're at Miami, Buffalo, back to back after the bye week, right before Deshaun shows up. They have a couple, you know, they're at Carolina, they have the Jets. So, right before Deshaun shows up. They have a couple. They're at Carolina. They have the Jets. It's not like the schedule is crazy hard.

I think one and six, actually. First seven. You think so? I'd probably think more highly than... So you're giving him the Jets game or the Atlanta game? I'm giving him the Pittsburgh game, believe it or not. But yeah, I don't... And I'm not positive he's going to come back like gangbusters. What week is that?

What week does he come back? That's week 12. He's come back, well, week 13, he's come back against Houston. Oh, yeah, they'd have to play Tampa, too, without him, because that's week 12, because they have the bye week. So they go at Miami, at Buffalo, Tampa, then he comes back. And he's going to be great? Like, let's not forget, Deshaun Watson, everything that's terrible about him,

he also is coming off two ACL, not coming off, but he suffered two ACL injuries. So the $230 million is a real, real risk, even before all the masseuse nonsense. You had Amari Cooper for a few years there. Yeah. That's looking like a steal when you look at that. Yeah, for what they paid for him. Yeah, because then the Christian Kirk thing put everything in motion. Now everybody makes like $14 million as a receiver.

I think there was like one $14 million receiver before this. And now, now there's seven. So, uh, yeah, everyone went a little bit nuts, but I don't, I can't pull.

I think you're right with those adjusted, uh, adjusted numbers for Brown's wind totals under way under what would they have to do with what's the best they could be before he comes back? I, I thought after it came out that he was missing the first 11 games, I thought this over under would be like seven or six and a half. Right.

And it's eight and a half. They really didn't move. It didn't move. I, people have told me that they get afraid to move the line because then they have people like the Warren Sharps of the world who bet it on one number and then you move it to two wins and now they can get it the other number and you just get crushed either way. Yeah.

So there, it's kind of what happened with Philly with the division where you can't move it past a certain point because then there's no value left. Okay. But still they have to beat these teams. I know. That's what I just. Four and seven when he comes back.

And then what do they have to go? They have to go. They do. They have a lot. five and one the rest of the way? No way. They have some young talent. We still haven't seen Chubb just kick ass for 17 weeks. It's going to happen one of these years, as you know I love him. But I don't see it.

Pittsburgh, they're seven and a half. I think Pittsburgh, I actually think their line is a game too low. Cleveland's is too, too high. I have Pittsburgh over. I don't feel great about it, but I just, the Tama and Flores is there now. They have some kick-ass guys, right? Watt, Hayward. Watt is, if you really dig into those numbers. He's the best edge guy in the entire league

somehow one of the most underrated players of all time right if something if he's done now they got Fitzpatrick so they got three like legitimate blue chippers on D

but you know what else they have they have a quarterback controversy and that's something Tomlin never had before right so you want to say well 9-8 or 8-8-1 he's never going to go lower than that

first of all they were 9-7-1. You watch their games. They could have been, this could have been a 4-13 team. So in my eyes, they're going from 4 wins to 7.5. Yeah. Is he over on there? They, as Damoshek says, knuckleballed their way to the playoffs

and it was delightful, but I don't see it. I really think still the worst run defense in football Well, the line is, the offensive line worries me. Yeah, the offensive line's a mess. So you got to, I don't see it. I really think still the worst run defense in football as of last year. Well, the line is, the offensive line worries me. Yeah, the offensive line's a mess. So you got to, I don't know,

it's weird because everybody's stats, all the superstar stats were way low because Roethlisberger was so bad because they had three points at halftime like six out of seven games

to end the season and still somehow made the playoffs. I'm going under. I see seven and ten here. So everyone talks about the luck they had in some of seven games to end the season and still somehow made the playoffs. I'm going under. I see seven and 10 here. So everyone talks about the luck they had in some of those games. On the flip side, you can't play,

you can't be worse at quarterback than Roethlisberger was. Yeah. So, but maybe- I'm not a Trubisky guy, but- Maybe they don't figure out who the, and I am, which is weird. You know I am, so.

Maybe they don't figure out who their quarterback is though for a while. That's what I mean with Tomlin. It's going to, it feels like it's going to be Pickett. It is? Yeah. I's what I mean with Tomlin. It feels like it's going to be Pickett. It is? Yeah. I think he showed enough, and that will be where it's at.

But you have to start Trubisky because you can't go back the other way. I got to say, great over-under. Seven and a half is perfect. Because I just think eight and nine, I don't think Tomlin is capable of going worse than eight and nine. We just haven't seen it. I would say that's the case for your Patriots too. You should count on your coach as much as Tomlin, I think.

From your lips to God's ears. We're going to take a break. Come back with the AFC South. All right, AFC South. A shit show for the 100th straight year. Can we ever have a normal year with AFC South where we feel good about one of the teams? Just not a fast division. Everyone's teal colored and everyone's quarterback stinks. And what are we doing?

But then again, then somehow the Titans get the number one seed and you could have catched that for what, like 12 to one? Yeah, I think it was even better. I think it was like 14 to one. Was it really? Yeah. I think it was even better. I think it was like 14-1. Was it really? Yeah. I hate this division. I feel like we lose money on it all the time.

Yeah. Tennessee. Don't worry, Matt Ryan's in the division now. How are we going to lose money? So does that cancel? Our bad luck with AFC South and our bad luck with Matt Ryan,

does that now cancel each other out? It's like the two wrongs even make a right. I guess we'll find out. Indies, nine and a half wins a lot of action

minus 160 plus 135 to try to entice you to go under they're minus 125 for the division they're minus 160 to win 10 plus

games which is I guess mirrors the nine and a half over under I'm an idiot what do you have you pick Indy and have us in Tennessee I took the puss bag way Mears, the nine and a half over runner. I'm an idiot. What do you have?

You pick Indianapolis or Tennessee? I took the puss bag way out here. I picked them both at nine and eight, and I don't know how to figure out the tiebreaker. For our purposes, I have the Colts winning division, but I don't think it's a year like last year where the Titans were able to mop up against, you know, it seems like the Texans, even though I think they had a tough game against Texans.

And the Jaguars, like, Lawrence is a year older. I like Davis Mills. I don't think either of those two will win the division. You like Davis Mills. Interesting. I do. I really do. You do like those three-step drop, chuck-it-down field guys. Whatever. Look at his numbers. In the last month, he was like the best rookie quarterback. They don't surround

him with anything. But here's the problem. They're playing the AFC West this year. They're not going to get easy wins so that's why i have both at the top of the division at nine which puts them both under nine and a half right they're both nine and a half yeah yeah tennessee what are the what's the juice on that that is under is minus 135 yeah somewhere in there so i did the same thing i went under on. Because I actually think the other two teams in this division are a little better than maybe people realize. I think these two teams are a little worse. The Tennessee case for, what were they last year?

They were 12 and 5. So were they three wins worse? A couple things I'm worried about. Derrick Henry. Helping off that foot injury. I don't want him in fantasy. I don't want money on him with the over in this division.

Even though the playoff game didn't look that good. They don't have a single receiver I like. They basically pushed all the eggs in the Traylon Burks basket and he's pretty...

I haven't exactly seen the rave reviews. Coming off a pretty severe ACL. Better blocking wide receiver than a difference maker. Not going to put up like 150 yards and two touchdowns in a game like that. Yeah, I'm with you. They trade A.J. Brown.

They had Landry who went out today with a torn ACL. Did he really? Yeah. Oh, that's big. I didn't see that. And that defense played well the second half of the year. I actually like them and the Colts defense. You talk about blue chippers that Kevin Byard, I bet, for most interceptions. I like that. They got Hooker.

They got Long. They got Simmons as a badass on the D-line. But here's the thing. They won 12 games. We look at them as an average team. We saw Tannehill, when he started the game with an interception, ended the half, whatever he did there. They're not trusting him.

And their extra games are at Buffalo, Cincinnati, and at Green Bay. whatever he did there. Yeah. They're not trusting him. And he's, their extra games are at Buffalo, Cincinnati, and at Green Bay. And I didn't even talk about the AFC West, who they play. They're in a little bit of trouble,

but I don't think the Colts are much better. It's a similar team. They play the Giants in week one. Yeah. And then the QBs get tough after that.

Like just, they probably play 12 elite or almost elite QBs, right? They have, they have, Josh Allen, David Carr, Ryan twice. They have Mahomes. They have Wilson.

They have Rodgers. They have Burrow. Jalen Hurts, who at least fantasy is elite. Stafford, your guy Dak, and maybe Trevor Lawrence twice if Trevor Lawrence is making a jump this year. That's not... I think they play the Chargers. Oh, my bad. I have... Herbert's worse.

So, not awesome. I have for Jacksonville, it's six and a half. I have the over. I almost made this a lock. They're 3-14 last year, and you just feel like Etienne's coming back. They've had a bunch of draft picks that people liked. Lawrence, I think is going to be a different guy. They have a normal coaching

staff. And is it like, should you go from three wins to seven wins after you had Urban Meyer, the worst coach in NFL history? I'm going to say yes. So that's always the thing, right? Like if a team goes from three to six, that's still under, and that's why I have them at six, but they're doubling their wins, but you're right. They're coming off the Urban Meyer year. I don't love Doug Peterson in here. They overspent. I don't love them for four years from now because they spent a billion dollars on average players, right?

Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. They overpaid for everyone. But sometimes that works for the first season. Maybe it will for the first season. With the pass that helped them last year. I still have six and 11. I don't like that draft, that Trayvon Walker. He wasn't all anything.

For all the Georgia and Alabama players, you could have gotten. I think they missed there. That first game against Washington, the Wentz revenge is fun. But three of their first four are on the road. What revenge is Wentz having? Oh, you don't know?

Did I miss something? Was there Wentz revenge? Well, they crushed him, right? In week 17. I mean, he's not going to get revenge. Yeah, Wentz is going to get revenge on Washington fans and people who bet on him. I don't know.

I think if they win that Washington game, you're in the clear with that over because they'll go 6-10 the rest of the way. They get to play both New York teams. They get to play Houston twice. 13-17 is Lions, Jets, Texans. They're winnable games for sure, but I have them slightly under it.

I wouldn't bet it, but I have it over, which is the first time I've been over with them in a couple years. Then I also have Houston over at four and a half. Right. Houston, there's been a lot of worse record action on them, plus 350. They're 101 to win the conference. Yeah. They're playing the AFC West.

There's a lot of reasons to not like them. But first of all, did you know they went four and 13 last year? Yeah. What do you mean?-13 last year? Yeah. What do you mean? Oh, you think? Yeah. Can they pick one game up? People really liked their draft and some of the guys they brought in. I guess their defenses looked pretty good this year in the preseason.

It wasn't like a Bill O'Brien type. They kind of shed that whole personality. Now they have Lovie Smith. What do you think Lovie Smith's career record is? 182 games. It's better than our guy Kyle Shanahan, isn't it? Isn't it over 500? 92 and 90.

Lovie Smith is 92 and 90. I know. I thought he was pretty good on Chicago. Yeah. Look, I think, you know, 102 quarterback rating, last five starts for Davis Mills. Yeah. Again, what are you going to do?

Then Mechie tears his, he goes out. That's no good. I like Stingley. I like their draft picks. What about Pierce? Pierce is looking like offensive rookie of the year, possibly. Yeah. Take some pressure off them.

I think they can get to five wins. I do, too. All right. So, funny. We go under on Tennessee, Indianapolis, and we, you went under on Jacksonville. I went over on Houston and Jacksonville. Well, I just just thought they're definitely not going for no Colts

or Titans in that vision against these other teams would you what would you give me an odds that we have no winning team in the AFC South that eight and nine wins the division yeah could that

be I was thinking that would you say like NFC's plus 300 on that maybe even less plus 220 yeah well if the over under is a 9.5, if one of them goes under 10 and 7. Yeah, maybe 2.8, 2.8, 300 maybe.

Be like if you had 2.8 and 9 teams, a 7 and 10 team, and a 6 and 11 Texans, that would be the pack. Everybody else beefs up on them. AFC West, the most fun division to talk about. Really great. You watch any night game, right?

Could be any of these four teams playing each other. Are the Chiefs and Chargers the two best teams in the league? In the league? Yeah. I like the Raiders. I have the Raiders winning the division with 11 wins. Wow. Really?

I don't know what's going on in people's heads. Like people... What's going on in your head? Well, if you ask most football fans who won that game the last week, Raiders or Chargers, I think most people would say the Chargers. They didn't win that game. The Raiders won the game.

And if Carr doesn't spike the ball and they lose it down there and they were, you know, five yards, six yards away from going to overtime against the team that made it to the Superbowl. And now they add Jones and they, and they're doing great. They extend Carr. They add Chandler Jones, who's a pressure guy.

They add Devontae Adams. I like this team a lot. Let's forget about the Gruden stuff. They had their president quit on them. They had, obviously, the Ruggs thing was terrible. I think they're back on track. I have them fourth in the division. Do you really?

Their over-under is eight and a half. They're seven to one to win the division. Seven and one. I've seen that since February. And that's what I was like, I have to take that. Six or less wins, plus 270. Oh, come on. Best record in the league, 60 to one.

10 plus wins, plus 150. Worst record in the league, you think? No, best record, 60 to one. Oh, you're going. 10 plus wins, plus 150. Worst record in the league, you say? No, best record, 60-1. Oh, you're going. 10 plus wins, plus 150. Their odds are all over the place. I like this team.

Here's what I don't like. Loaded with the playmakers. I have them at nine elite players, including the kicker and the punter, who I think are both really good. But,

no offensive line. Their offensive line is a bottom five terrible offensive line. Okay, but it wasn't great last year. And that's the part that worries me.

And then you have the Waller thing where I like to see him play. You pencil him in as oh, it's Waller. He's one of the best head ends in the league. He was kind of up and down

last year. He wants a contract. He just switched agents. I think Renfro does better than Devante Adams, but I think they put it together. I do love Renfro. You and I both are huge Renfro guys. What are we going to I think they put it together I do love Renfro you and I both

are huge Renfro guys what are we going to bid on him so here's the thing so you bring in McDaniels I see I see the whole case everyone else

oh you hate McDaniel you have to hate McDaniel I don't know how good he is I forgot about this I don't know how good he is all the Belichick people have to fail after I get it now

that's okay no that's not how we feel. We're not spiteful like that. I see. Josh helped us win some Super Bowls. I see.

I just don't understand how people can just discount how bad their offensive line is. Like, that should matter. It was bad last year. And also, like, they blew, what,

three Gruden drafts there where multiple first-round picks were just not on the team anymore for a variety of reasons. I think Jacobs is probably the best one. Max Crosby was a later draft. Crosby and Renfro, that's why you can't get on their draft too much

because it's Leatherwood getting cut and all those other guys. But at least, I think that's the reason I like the Raiders. They didn't have draft picks this year to screw up. They had no first and second-round picks. So they're free of that and free of a lot

of just garbage. I worry about receivers switching teams. Just point to me all the time that it's actually worked out in an awesome way. Not too many.

For some reason, it's always weird. Not too many. I think Adams and Tyreek Hill's numbers go down, but I think their team... It's funny.

I'm under on them. I think they're 8-9 or worse. Well, here's the thing about the AFC West, and then you can point to their schedule. It's tough. First five. Everybody's got a chunk of five games that are just brutal. Just take the month off. Forget it. Who can get through them is the question.

But yeah, if you say the Raiders are in last, I'm not going to scream your nuts. I think Denver's in last. People like them. people putting them in the Super Bowl. I don't feel that way. But I do think one of those two teams is probably the seventh playoff team in the AFC.

One of? Denver, like I think we get three out of this. Oh, you do? AFC team, yeah. So Cincinnati or Baltimore? I have Cincinnati in. Oh, so you don't have Baltimore in? No, I think Cincinnati wins the division and Baltimore makes it two. So I have two in that. One in AFC South.

What? Oh, so then you can't. One in AFC East. And then I got three in the AFC West. Well, not one wild card. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Okay.

So I think it comes down to Denver versus Vegas. And I just feel a little better about Denver, even though I'm with you. So you're not a charger guy then? No, I'm in on the chargers. Let's go. KC, 10.5. I see what the hell's going on here. This is one of my locks. To the division, plus 155.

10 plus wins is minus 210, so no value there. Best record is 9-1. I kind of like that. AFC number one seed is plus 650. Last year, they were 12-5. And they beefed up their defense Karloftis and Duffy

two rookies that are coming and helping right away, apparently there's been a Frank Clark comeback which I'm excited about, Chris Jones is in the middle now, I think their defense is going to be better than people think and I've said this on the last three pods so I'll just say it quickly again Mahomes in a great offensive line I'm in, Mahomes with time, I don't care who his receivers are. He's going to have five seconds

to throw and these guys are going to be running around and then he'll buy another two seconds and just over and over again. We haven't seen him with time in four years. Doesn't this team have three seasons every year? It's like the first four, like they have no defense. Oh, they can't. Well, they're not going to last in January with this defense. Then the defense figures it out. And then Mahomes will go like five games where he has like

seven total touchdowns. Like, whoa, what's this? Why can't they score? If you look at like some of their wins, they don't have to put up 40 to win the game. Granted, they played the Packers

without Aaron Rodgers, and they have a few wins like that last year in the 12 and five. But, and I know they have a tough start. Arizona, at Arizona, Chargers, Colts. I don't think at Arizona is a tough game. No, I know.

If you look at the first seven, it's tough. I think he's like 22-4 in September, Mahomes, since he started. No one bothers me. They're going to be a favorite at Arizona. They're going to be a favorite at all these games. So we're both in on KC. I love Kansas City. Great.

Because I made this case the other day about how I feel like this could be his 2022 Warriors Curry season where everything's built around him now. Don't be sarcastic. Everything's built around him. It's like, hey, you know what we should do? We should be able to block for Pat Mahomes. And you know what?

Maybe we'll spend the money there and the capital there, and then we'll just get good to decent receivers. They'll get the juju comeback here. Um, running backs are okay, but really this is my home's team. Now it's just going to go nuts.

It's kind of like Barry Sanders, right? Like, uh, if they had, imagine if they had an offensive lines, like, no,

he improvises so much. Yeah. Might screw him up. Right. Yeah. Just get open five seconds later. I think he's going to have the most fun he's had

in his career this season. Yeah. I also think the old chip on the shoulder from, he blows the Cincy game. I mean, the weirdest hour and a half of his career.

Right. And then it's this whole, now it's Josh Allen's league and now it's Herbert. Herbert MVP. Huge Herbert jerk circle. By the way, I'm in it. Make room for me in the Herbert jerk circle. But it's just

everybody else and not Mahomes. He's not overrated but he's over praised. I think Herbert. Yeah. Don't forget how awesome Pat Mahomes is just because he sucked in that Bengals game. Also, if you gave Pat Mahomes an extra down the throw, that Staley is nuts. They're going for it on fourth down every time. So I feel like

Herbert has more chances to succeed because they go for it on fourth down every time. So I feel like Herbert has more chances to succeed because they go for it on fourth down. Like not as much. The older coaches don't do that as much. I think the Chargers have the best roster in the league. And I love how they beefed up at all the positions that actually matter. Their over-under is 10.

The over-under actually moved. It was nine and a half. They actually bumped it to 10. It's still minus 140. You get it for the division for plus 240. You get it for best record for 16-1. You can get them AFC number one seed plus 950. And look, I think both

of these teams could go like 12-5, 13-4. Really? Wow. I'm more nervous about Staley than anything with the Chiefs. I thought Staley was appalling last year. Not just the game management, but their defense was bad. And I know they brought in Khalil Mack. They brought in JC Yeah. I thought Staley was appalling last year. Not just the game management, but their defense was bad. And I know they brought in Khalil Mack,

they brought in J.C. Jackson. I get it. Tell me why he's at the top for Coach of the Year. Was he? He is right now. Brandon Staley?

Yeah. I feel like he's the weak link on that team. That's what I'm thinking. And meanwhile, you can get the Bills coach for like 15 to 1 or something. It's what I'm thinking. And meanwhile, you can get the Bills coach for like 15 to 1 or something.

It's really bizarre. Like, wouldn't you rather have Sean McDermott than Staley? Yeah, Staley drives me a little bit nuts. Chargers' most fun team in the league.

For sure. Yeah. Like, there's going to be no week where it's like, ah, the Chargers are on one of the TVs. It's like, cool, put the Chargers on.

Yeah, but there's also, you got to think, first of all, there's two things. There's also always like a kicking thing that screws them up or something really stupid. Something, you know,

the team doctor, whatever it might be. Second thing is... The team doctor stabbing their quarterback? Yeah. You can't give them a decisive home win

in any of these. Thank you. That's it. I'm so glad you brought this up. They have no home field advantage at all. It matters after a while. Yes, the Chiefs have no home field advantage at all. It matters after a while. Yes, the Chiefs have

a home field advantage. Yeah. Now, granted, it didn't work out in that Bengals game, but for the most part, it's nice to have your fans cheer for you at home.

Yeah. Sal and I live in LA. Nobody cares about the Chargers here. At Kansas City, sorry, home versus Vegas, there's going to be a lot of Raiders fans.

A lot of Raiders fans. Oh, yeah. Maybe Jacksonville. How about Denver week six? Denver, for sure, there will be. Seattle, Kansas. Maybe Jacksonville. How about Denver week six? Denver for sure there will be. Seattle, Kansas City will have them.

Kansas City for sure. Miami will have fans. I mean, there's a lot of Miami fans out here. And the Rams is just, you know. The Rams is basically a home game for the Rams.

The Rams have 10 games at SoFi this year. If Justin Herbert was the Dallas Cowboys quarterback, would he be the biggest star in the league? Interesting.

I think he would. You think he's been Mike Trouted a little bit out here? A little bit? Who the fuck cares about the Chargers? He might as well be playing in Mexico City. I go two ways with him because I think he gets a lot of praise. A ton of praise. A lot of people are leaning on him as MVP at 10-1.

He's very fun when you've bet on the Chargers and they're down 17 in the third quarter and it just seems like he can bring them back in like five throws. So there's like a Mahomes quality in him. I don't trust the coaching infrastructure. I do not trust the baggage that they've had with all these dumb losses they've had over the years

and the lack of home field. So my edge is to the Chiefs. I like the Chiefs doing that division. The one thing I'll say, people love the J.C. Jackson. By the way, I think he made top 15 or top 20 just basically off last year in the NFL 100. They love the Khalil Mack trade,

but they were 31st in the league against the run. And they have some run stoppers in Joseph Day and Austin Johnson they picked up from the Rams and Giants. So that, I think, they'll be better there. And Bosa, if you say blue chip, red chip, you can go on and on. Both Bosa's are in there. But it doesn't ever add up with them.

And I'm telling you, that home field matters. They're miserable after a while. I had, they were the highest team in my rankings with chippers. 34 and a half. And they had Herbert, Eckler, Williams, Allen, Lindsay. the highest team in my rankings with Chippers. 34.5. And they had Herbert, Eckhart, Williams, Allen, Lindsay, Slater. No, just add it up with the stupid scoring system. Mack, Bosa, Jackson, Samuel is probably

the best nickelback in the league. And James. Linebacker is not awesome. They picked up Kyle Vannoy and people were talking about, and they've got Kyle Vannoy. It's like, Kyle Vannoy was terrible last year for the Patriots. I don't know. I don't know if you watched

the Buffalo game when they did whatever the fuck they wanted against us. So, all right, Denver quick. Denver's over-under is nine and a half. I don't know why I don't like them as much.

AFC number one seed plus 750. 10 plus wins minus 134. Playoffs minus 146. I just don't think... I've said this already. I'll make it quick. I don't think Wilson is

the 2014-15 Wilson. I don't either. I don't think that's a controversial thing to say. I don't think he moves around the same way when he's more in the pocket, like all that stuff. The fact that they lost Tim Patrick already, they have two receivers. Judy, we've never seen really play.

He's taunted us. You can't say he didn't have receivers the last few years. Yeah, he had Metcalf and Lockett. Yeah, and Metcalf was better with Geno Smith. I know it's a small sample size, but everyone, you think you're getting exactly the six-year-ago version of Russell Wilson. I don't think it's the small sample size, but everyone that you think you're getting exactly the two, the six year ago version of Russell Wilson.

I don't think it's a case at all. There is this thing with quarterbacks though, when your team hasn't had a quarterback for a while and then you get somebody, a really good or super competent guy. It is fun. It, it does like completely transform the club.

Sure. Yeah. It's like when, uh, like when CBS got Letterman and they had just, nobody could even remember who was on there. And then it's like, we have Letterman and there's this stability and credibility that just lifts

everything. And Wilson's at least going to do that where you go from drew lock and Teddy Bridgewater and all the dudes that had and broken down Peyton Manning. And he'll have some throws in the first month. I'm like, oh my God, we have Russell Wilson. This is our guy. So that's why I'm going to sign over. Relief, I think so. I don't know. I think because they have

Randy Gregory and he kind of screwed over the Cowboys and have a little bit of a you know, I don't know how that's going to work out. They have some bangers on D. Yeah. I have five like legit guys on that defense Jones, Gregory, Johnson

Sertan and Simmons Sertan by the end of next by the end of this season he might be other than Jalen Ramsey the best corner for all we know

there's good numbers on his to be a top interception guy yeah I think so I like him all the people like Lindsey Jones who works for the ringer now

and she's going to she's gone to like every Broncos preseason and she was like to like every Broncos preseason. And she was like, that guy's Champ Bailey. Right. Champ Bailey was an iconic generational quarterback. She's like, they've recreated him now with Sertan.

Now, is Javante Williams the most hyped? I don't want to say overhyped, but hyped player? You know I love him. Why though? What's indicating that he's not going to split carries again with Melvin Gordon? He's going to be super disappointing in fantasy. Yeah. I had him last year.

All I was doing was rooting for them to put him in. I had him on both teams. And then Melvin Gordon had like three big games. And then the stats evened out. It's like, here comes Melvin Gordon for three yards. Can you put the other guy in? Right. All right.

We're going to abruptly stop with the AFC there. Stay tuned for the NFC, which is coming Sunday night. NFC over-unders. And we're going to abruptly stop with the AFC there. Stay tuned for the NFC, which is coming Sunday night. NFC over-unders, and we're going to do Guess the Lines week one. Me and our buddy Sal. Thanks to him. Thanks to Rosillo. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. Thanks to Dylan Berkey and Steve Cerruti.

As always, don't forget, new Rewatchables coming on Monday. We're doing Saving Private Ryan. And if you want to follow me on YouTube, youtube.com slash Bill Simmons. If you want to follow me on TikTok, tiktok.com slash 33BS33. And then you can get me on Twitter and Instagram as well.

Have a great weekend. Enjoy yourselves. Stay cool if you're on the West Coast, and I will see you next time.