The Bill Simmons Podcast - Could Brady Return to the Pats? Plus: Miami-SF, Cincy-KC, Million-Dollar Picks, and RIP Christine McVie | With Peter Schrager, Benjamin Solak, and Nathan Hubbard

Episode Date: December 2, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports to discuss Bill's theory about Tom Brady's potential return to the Patriots in 2023, the games of the week (49ers-Dolphins, Bengals-Chiefs, Commanders-Giants), and more (4:11). Then Bill talks with Benjamin Solak about the five most important individual matchups for NFL Week 13, including Tua Tagovailoa vs. Fred Warner, A.J. Brown vs. the Titans, Justin Jefferson vs. the Jets CBs, and more (52:01), before making the Million Dollar Picks for NFL Week 13 (1:27:17). Finally, Bill and Nathan Hubbard remember Fleetwood Mac's Christine McVie (1:39:58). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager, Benjamin Solak, and Nathan Hubbard Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, if you're loving the World Cup, check out the soccer podcast we have on The Ringer. Stadio FC is the OG. Righty's House with Ian Wright, another great one. And then we just added Counterpressed with Flo Lloyd-Hughes and friends. So there's three good ones you can listen to after you watch all these great games. The Ringer Podcast Network. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action.

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You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this. It's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer.

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Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Every Sunday night, I've been breaking down White Lotus with Joanna Robinson. We're gonna be doing it again for episode six, the second to last episode. Right after White Lotus ends on HBO,

we have our podcast up around like 7.02 Pacific time, 10.02 Eastern time. So look for that on Sunday. Did a new Rewatchables this week as well. Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Did some great hottest takes. I had a good one this week, but Craig Horlbeck has been the MVP of the hottest

take this year. And he had a hottest take about cannibalism that I don't know. It redefined the medium. It was like when Marty McFly played the electric guitar for everybody for the first time. That's how it felt watching him unleash that. It was the hottest take I think we've ever had. So there you go.

Cannibalism. What else can I tell you? Taping this part of the podcast, it is 830 Pacific time. It was a question heading into this Bills-Pats game. Would the Bills-Pats recap make it after Pearl Jam as its own segment or just squeeze it on top of the intro because the Pats blew it? Well, it was worse than them blowing it.

They sucked. The Bills are way better than them. It was the same story as the last two games, Bills-Pats, where you just have a Bills team that is just so much faster, more talented, just have the Pats number at this point. The Pats were in this position on the other side for years and years and years with really all of the AFCs. And now it's flipped.

Not a lot of hope. This was the night that Kyle texted me that he's finally lost faith in Mac Jones. There's some real questions about the coaching on this team. I don't think Belichick as much as just the coordinators and the assistants and the fact that Matt Patricia is running this weird offense and the team is sloppy and just seems undisciplined. The only bright spot of the whole game was that Marcus Jones doing a Tyreek Hill impression for 48 yards. But it's pretty grim, which is what I expected. And that was why, for two reasons, we crafted the first segment of this podcast like we did. First of all, because I think there's some smoke in what we're going to talk about the first

segment. But also, it's time to start talking about it. What do we do? What happens with this Patriots team? And do they care that they've been supplanted by the Celtics? The Celtics are the best team in the NBA. They have one of the best players in the NBA who's becoming the face of Boston, Jason Tatum. They're incredibly fun to watch night after night after night. The Bruins are also crushing it.

And the Pats are really going to start being an afterthought. And that's one of the reasons I want to do the first segment that we're about to do with Peter Schrager, talking football with him, doing some underdog parlay stuff with him. And then Ben Solak is going to come on for a new segment about matchups that he loves. And this is a really good podcast.

I did a big million dollar picks. I've had a whole epiphany with million dollar picks. And then last but not least, my friend Nathan Hubbard came on to talk about the death of Christine McVie from Fleetwood Mac, a band that we loved. So that's the podcast. You better buckle up for the first segment.

That's all I'm going to say. RIP to the 2022 Pats. I'd rather see them go 6-11 than 7-10 or 8-9 or 9-8. They're not going to get to 10-7. They're probably better off going backwards at this point. Maybe that's deep down what they want to do, but grim night for the Patriots fans. And guess what? I know you don't feel bad for us, and that's fine. We won six Super Bowls. We're good. We have the Celtics. All right, let's bring in Pearl Jam. All right. Taping this part of the podcast. It is 1130 Pacific time.

Peter Schrager is here. I'm on steroids. It's finally murdered this five-week Ebola virus I had. I feel great. I feel like I could go outside and fight people. I feel like I could pick all 16 games. There's 15 games this week. I feel like I could play left tackle for the Pats.

I am just energized. I'm jazzed. I'm pumped. I'm ready to go. I love this version of you. A couple years ago, it happened to me. Like Super Bowl week, I was on the show screaming in front of a live audience. Took the steroids.

Honestly, you feel like you're Iron Man. Last year during the Super Bowl week, McVay lost his voice. We're texting. I said, take this stuff. I won't name the drug or whatever it is, but it's a simple steroid. And again, Superman. And then he went on to win a Super Bowl. I'm fully convinced it's because of whatever you're taking right now to get you through these podcasts. I remember I called Barry Bonds in 1998. I'm like, you got to try this. It's great. I know you have a cough. And then he's just like, he wrote it for this. It's great. I know you have a cough. And then he's just like,

he wrote it for four years. We are starting the podcast with something a little unusual. We're going to bring in nephew Kyle. He's going to join us. Because I have a topic that I'm very excited to bring up on this podcast.

And Kyle needs to be part of it. I have not been briefed on this. Neither of you have been briefed. Turn the camera on, Kyle. Is it on? He's wearing a Pats jersey? Great. Red sleeves. You can't make it up.

I think there's a chance Tom Brady comes back to the Patriots next season. Come on. Let's go. Let's go. There's some breadcrumbs being dropped. I've seen some breadcrumbs, but let Bill take the stage. All right.

We'll go big picture. We'll go... Sorry, Kyle. This is why you need to be on camera. Why are you saying this to me? This is why it's such a great YouTube clip. Let's go backwards. Why does he leave New England?

Right? 20 years in the same place. You start, you get tired of your boss. You feel underappreciated. You have a wife who wants to get out of Massachusetts. Let's go to Florida. But really, it was partly, I can't win here anymore. This is why LeBron James left Cleveland in 2010 and then left Miami in 2014. It wasn't, I'm coming home. It wasn't about that. It was

his best place to win and the coming home was an extra part. It's an extra piece. Oh, I get to do this. I'm coming up now is actually, they have the number one pick and they have Kyrie Irving and they have a bunch of lottery picks and you have a chance to win the title in Cleveland. Brady goes to Tampa. Why does he go to Tampa Schrager? Ultimately as a football decision, why did it make sense? Loaded roster, draft picks in the top 10 every single year. And basically the keys to the kingdom. We'll get in all your friends. You could bring Alex Guerrero. You could bring Gronk. You could bring whoever you want. It's yours. Just please join our team. It's a move to win a title. Get away from Belichick. Maybe work on the legacy a little bit. All right. He does it. It wins. It's successful. It's great.

But now we're two years later. He's going through a divorce. You start to really look around and see who are my friends? What have I done with my life? What matters? What's my legacy? Is my legacy I'm just the greatest quarterback ever? Who do I belong to? Who are my people? And you look around your families and tatters. You're on this Tampa Bay team that sucks. We're going to talk about them a million dollar picks later. You got your title out of them, but you're not getting another title out of them.

Thought about going to Miami. That door's closed. They have a quarterback too. Niners, they have Trey Lance, Jimmy G. You can't go home to San Francisco. You start looking at that Pat situation again. What happened, what, four or five weeks ago? Who shows up at Bob Craft's birthday party during the week on a Friday night

before a Tampa Bay Bucs game. Why would somebody do that, Peter Schrager? Why? Somebody who truly loves the owner and the franchise. Now you start thinking, where was I happy? Where did I belong? Who are my people? And it's the Patriots fans.

What's the best thing for my legacy? Oh, I could just, I Petereter out on the seven and 10, eight and nine Bucs team. I lose in round one. Then I go to Fox. I don't think he wants to go to Fox. I just think he's on the wrong team. He needs an offensive line.

Well, the Pats have an offensive line. He needs tight ends to have those. He needs a running back who can catch the ball out of the backfield. How about Romandre Stevenson? How about a bunch of receivers that can do some stuff? How about a young team that is probably like one more year away from being decent? He goes there for a year, comes back home, puts a bow on it.

I'm a patriot for life. This is where I want to be. Bob Kraft is the most meaningful relationship I've had as an adult. He's like a second father to me. And then you start floating out the, I didn't really want to leave in the first place, but my wife wanted me to leave. And this divorce is going to probably get uglier and uglier.

You start making her, you paint in certain things. I never wanted to go. I left because of my family. My family, my wife didn't want to be here anymore. Now you're shifting it. Guess who's embracing him with open arms? New England, Massachusetts, Boston, every Patriot fan. Tom Brady's back for one more year, one more time.

Let's put a bow in this, an eighth title. Let's do this. Mac Jones, do you want to be tutored by Tom Brady for a year? How's that sound? Bradley Zappi. You're just going to be wearing a headset this year, but Bradley. You're going to learn some shit. Bradley Zappy.

Bradley. And Billy Zappy. Billy Zappy too. He's also going to learn shit. Billy Zappy, put a headset on. Just learn from the GOAT for a year. Oh my God. It's so glad to have him back.

TB12, fine. Belichick and Brady together. This is how it has to end. The Shawshank Reunion. This is Dirk Diggler coming back to Jack Horner's house at the end They always come back, Peter Schrager I'm just saying Don't rule it out

Brother, I like it Let me give you a little validity On this thing And Kyle, just I did not tip you off on any of this No, and there was like A sprinkling of this earlier this week online that has kind of made its way to me and been like, well, you know some of the people in Tampa and New England.

What are they saying? And I'm like, I haven't heard it from anyone. However, I did go through an exercise on Good Morning Football where I listed the free agent quarterbacks for 2023. And I said, Lamar's coming back to Baltimore. They'll figure it out. But it's an interesting class because you've got Sam Darnold now at 25 years old who can maybe rectify his career elsewhere or stay in Carolina. You've got Baker. You've got this Heineke now who's suddenly a thing. You've got

Daniel Jones potentially. You've got Garoppolo. And I go through this. I go, it's an interesting class when going into the season. I don't think we thought that. And I got multiple texts, not one, multiple texts from people who watch our show around the league saying, you forgot Brady. You forgot Brady. You forgot Brady. So everyone's assumption that this is Brady's swan song and he's going to go out and just be in a booth next year calling, I don't know, Washington Commanders versus the Eagles on a week seven game.

That deal with Fox, that's out there. I think that's out there when he wants to take that deal. I don't think there was a deadline. What was the timing of that deal? The timing was they're about to talk to their investors. We need some sort of something. Hey, is it okay if we announce this? It seemed pretty half-assed and rushed. I don't know the details. I'm a Fox employee. I will not go into the fact that it was timed along the earnings call. And after Buck and Aikman left, that is not my place to say anything. I will say this. They're expecting him to eventually join Fox Sports, but there is no hard date of like, all right, the second the Super Bowl is done, Tom Brady is going to be here. Now, what he signed on for was he'd attend some investor relations events. He would be the public

face of it. He could still do that and still be the quarterback of another team. As for the Patriots side of it- Wait, hold on. One more thing on the Bucs. Pushes out Bruce Arians. Let's be honest, he did that. That happened. They bring in Todd Bowles. Hasn't been great. That performance last week of Bowles and Leftwich and the whole Tampa coaching staff was awful. And there's just no way Brady comes back to the Bucs. I think that is the one prediction I am 100% on that he will not play in Tampa Bay next year. And then if you start looking around, well, where would he go? All of the teams he'd want to go to are gone, which brings me back to the past.

So go ahead. Okay. So then you go through those teams and you say, okay, what teams might have holes at quarterback? Uh, you start looking, the guys in the AFC West are pretty much spoken for. Would he go to McDaniels? And maybe it's like a, I don't think it's either. I don't think he's going to Vegas to like, I just don't see.

I know. Same situation. Like I know a lot of team. I know he loves Josh. Same situation. I know he loves him. You're not winning a title with that. Then you're like, all right, in the division, it's really tough in the AFC East right now.

You've got Tua. You've got this great thing. What's the worst division in football? It's actually the division he's in right now. So would he go to Carolina with Tepper where there's all sorts of potential money? I don't know if he wants to... New Orleans?

No, stop. I mean, the Giants are like mildly interesting, but I don't think it solves the am I a guaranteed contender problem.

Not that the Pats do, but at least the Giants puts them in New York. It's a really fun topic and it's really fun for us. I think the other part is he's got a son in high school in New York City right now.

Yeah. He'd be closer to him. Very close to New now. Yeah. He'd be closer to New England. Last time I checked. Closer to New England. And there is this feeling of like, I said it multiple times. I think you did too. If he had walked off after that Rams loss in the playoffs, where he took his team back from 24 points and had a great ending, great ending, like Brady at his last game, like

gave it everything and then cooper cup and stafford on their own miracle run had one more play in them and that's how it ends fine i don't you mentioned it to this this is the worst ending possible he's gonna go out on a losing team he fires his coach he's getting divorced he they're like what 27th in the red zone oh it's just not a fun season you've had matt balani on after the bob eiger news and i love that you started an a block on a monday morning talking bob eiger because like that's a point was like how what's your legacy what are you gonna go out and like and i think it matters and i think it really matters to brady so i don't know if it's patriots and i

think it's a cool story but like i'm not sure sure I see Brady ending his career on a seven and, you know, a seven and 10 Buccane to prove that greatness could be sustainable for more than just him. And he does care about this stuff. Kyle, when you think about Brady's legacy, and he comes back to New England for one last year, maybe he appreciates Belichick a little bit more. It's like, eh. I've had Bruce Arians skipping out at 4.30 because he wanted to get nine in. I've had Todd Bowles just flatlining as we have a seven-point lead. I've seen the other side. This whole Belichick side, maybe I underrated a little. Also, they've won. When you've won multiple times with somebody, I don't care if you're like, oh, that guy's, I fucking hate that guy. I'm so tired of him. You still have ties and connections

with them. And then the craft thing is the big thing to me, because that's probably one of the best relationships he has. So Kyle, as this is all laid out, first of all, it gets announced Tom Brady is back. What's your reaction? Here we go. I mean, I've enjoyed the last. I love rooting for him. I mean, the Super Bowl was like, you know, magical for me in my own little way. But it's been really nice knowing when the cliff comes on, like when we hit the cliff, it's not my problem anymore.

I've been actually pretty good at divorcing now. I really like that. I've super enjoyed that part of, you know, the close games and the bad throws and, you know, whatever the losses that's been really nice that I can just sort of, I'm an uncle now. I'm not a parent, you know, I can just sort of just go home. So that was really nice. And it was sort of like, uh, getting through like a hard semester and then being done with it. And so I wouldn't want to go back to school and take a test right now, but that's what it sort of would feel like if he came back.

And then the other thing is, is he going to be cool that Matt Patricia and somebody else, what is it, Joe Judds, are now calling the plays? Is that sort of a disaster a little bit? In his eyes, I wonder. How about offensive coordinator Cliff Clinksberry? So we're just throwing people at him. Did you see Schrager blink when I threw that out?

Schrager, who, who are, who kind of are buddies together a little bit? Tom Brady and Cliff? Yeah. They went to the Derby one year together. They went to Baker,

Baker's Bay in Bahamas. They've got stories. I had great stories with them. They'll probably, I think would probably figure out an offensive coordinator, make them happy. And then, you know, I don't think they had, they would have to trade anything. It's a fun thought

exercise, but I do think the legacy is important. Let me just add one more part to this. Let me add a couple more things to this. Why not? I'll empty the bag and let's just do it. Yeah, let's do it. He was in a conversation with the Miami Dolphins to potentially be their quarterback, and they had his agent, Don Yee, who also

represents Sean Payton. There were conversations. This isn't like a crazy idea that Brady behind the scenes would maneuver something. He's already done it once before. Right. And he did it with the Tampa coach as well. He did that with going to Tampa.

And then we found out from... Who had the Vegas revelation? Yeah. It was revealed that like on the barber shop when he said that. Oh, wait. It was... No, it was Dana White.? Yeah, it was revealed that like on the barbershop when he said that. Oh, wait, it was, no, it was Dana White. Was that what it was? Dana White talking to Gronk.

Yeah, it was Dana White talking to Gronk about how Brady almost ended up in Vegas. And then that one fell apart. So Brady's been maneuvering this whole time. And I do feel like, I do think he cares about the legacy thing. I don't think he wants to go out this way. And I think going back to the Pats solves a lot of issues for that dude.

So I work with Jason McCourty and Jason's lovely. And Jason's brother on Thursday night played his 200th game and started every single game. And Kraft came out during the week and came out with a collage. And we're sitting there at the set and I say to Jason, I'm like, not every team does that. And he's like, RK came in. He's like, that's our guy. And I'm like, yeah. And he's like, I only played there three years, but you have no idea the love that we have for that owner and what he means to us all. And I'm like, it's good. I'm with Danny Amendola last weekend. The two of us went out. He was in LA. He's promoting this Fox show, Special Forces Fox with Mike Piazza. I'm watching that. We go out for dinner. And I'm like, do you still talk to the Patriots guys? Like, yeah, I went to different teams

afterwards, Miami, Detroit, and Houston. He's like, but Kraft, man, that's our guy. There is something special about that Robert Kraft relationship with the players when they won that I think it's universal, but it's got to be even stronger with Tom Brady. I'm just throwing stuff into the fire here. I'm glad you brought up Kraft because that's the last piece of this. So something very interesting has happened in the Boston sports scene. The Celtics are the

dominant team and the Bruins are really, really good too, right? And it's turned into the Celtics-Bruins thing. So you have the Pats playing Buffalo. We're taping this before the Pats-Buffalo game today. And if the Pats lose, their season's probably over. The Celtics own the town. Tatum is the most popular,

biggest athlete in the town by far. I have no feel for Boston sports. So you're telling me that I'm just getting, I'm giving you, he's Tatum's the guy. So I had, uh, my dad and my uncle went to see the Celtics heat last night and they had Prince William and Kate were there sitting courtside.

And my dad, the, the, the owner sit right in front of my dad, like four rows in front. Tatum went over and talked to them before the game. And he walked away and he was just locked in. He had 28 in the first half.

And my uncle Bob, cause they FaceTimeed me after, they were like, Tatum wanted to put on a show for those dudes. It was like real greatness from Tatum. For the owners or for the Royals? No, for the Royals. Really? These Royals are here.

I'm going to put on a fucking show for them. He dropped 28. Tatum's like a god right now. And I think Kraft sees this. Kraft was in this position where it was like, it was them and the Red Sox. It was the Celtics for a couple of years, but it was always the Pats first. Now they're third. And they're not as, they're still, it's a football city. I get it. They're always going to be relevant. There's always going to be Mack versus Zappi arguments, stuff like that. But Kyle, what flips the script more than Tom Brady coming back?

This would do it. It's definitely shocking. And I just want to put, I would absolutely accept him back. And I know Brady would love a chance to squash a Pats quarterback that's been drafted by us. So he'd love to do that one more time. Well, look at some of the stuff Kraft's done, right?

Like even like the Meek Mill thing, where he was like passionately trying to, you know, get Meek Mill out of prison. I think if Kraft looks at this and goes, you know what? This is great. This will be great. This is a great ribbon to put on this giant present of the Tom Brady era.

I'm going to make this happen. Tom's in a not great place. His marriage just fell apart. He's had the worst 2022 possible. I'm going to be there for him. I'm going to work it. I'm going to try to get him back. I think it 2022 possible. I'm going to be there for him. I'm going to work it. I'm going to try to get him back. I think it's possible.

That's why I'm throwing it out there because I know it's possible. Brady's got a new clothing line, Brady brand. He's got the TB12. You know who Kraft's best friend is these days? Like the best friend is Michael Rubin from Fanatics. I'm talking, they are inseparable.

If you could somehow introduce that whole world to, I mean, Brady knows Michael Rubin, but like this is no brainer if he's trying to get into the sports apparel and trying to get into that world as well. And, you know, in the Hamptons every summer, Michael Rubin throws this huge bash. You know, who guest number one is Robert Kraft. You know, who guest number two is Bon Jovi. And, you know, he got, you know, who hosted Kraft's birthday party this past summer, 80th surprise birthday party with Edelman there. And, and the McCourty's there and Brady there,

Michael Rubin. Like, I feel like this is, if Brady's got to have a future, like long on and the, doing the clothing stuff and doing the marketing, all this stuff, like, dude,

there's a lot of stuff that makes a lot of sense here. Now the question is, does, does, you know, does Belichick want Brady back? And that's the big thing because I think Belichick ultimately, it was an understanding

that this was where this was going, but there was no warm and fuzzy pitch to Tom Brady on the way out. It wasn't like, hey, let's go for one more run here and Brady being like, no. I think they both knew it was time to move on and Belichick didn't fight for it.

The Alex Guerrero piece was interesting. Wait, hold on to the Belichick thing. Yeah. Belichick's a history guy. He fucking loves the history of the NFL. Yes, he does. Wait, hold on. The Belichick thing. Yeah. Belichick's a history guy. He fucking loves the history of the NFL. Yes, he does. Really more than anybody. He loves it. Lacrosse and history.

He knows, like, he could tell you all the coach wins over the years, what the fucking list is. Oh my God. And he gets the big picture piece of this, and I think he would embrace it, because let me tell you something, they're not winning the Super Bowl with the team they have. And if you even put this year's version

of Brady on this team, they would have been better. But I just think there's too many arrows that are pointing a certain way for us not to take this seriously. We've dropped a lot of information on this podcast this year that has been successful in both football and basketball. I think both of us are pretty plugged in on this stuff too. I'm not discrediting you. Like Robert Sarver not wanting to sell the Suns to Iger and now Iger's back at Disney. I would just take this stuff seriously. I don't bring this up just out of nowhere to get aggregated. I say the same things, Bill, on our show. I'm like, I don't say it if I don't think there's something to it.

Yeah. There's smoke. I'm just telling you. Um, all right. We could talk about this. You could talk about this at good morning, Mary. I'm excited for Jason's thoughts on good morning football tomorrow on this. Of course I will ask him, but real quick on like Alex Guerrero. So if you don't know, he's brought a Brady's personal guy, Willie McGinnis brought him in. He was always part of it, but like there was a conflict of whether how much access Guerrero had and who got to go and work out with Guerrero. And if he was working with the Patriots trainers or not, when he got to Tampa, it was like, have the building, have a shirt, have an office, have everything. I think that Guerrero does still have a huge presence with the TB12 stuff up there. And I'd wonder if Belichick would loosen up a

little bit. And I know at the end there, they actually did come together and it was okay. But if Brady comes in and is like, I'm only coming back if my guy has full access again, if Belichick would be willing to say, yeah, you know what, whatever it takes. Belichick is old and he's turning into a softie. He's got two fucking kids working for him on the team. Come on. All right, Kyle. We're going to take a break and then we'll come back and talk more football. Hey, if you're looking to get more of this NFL season, it's the perfect time to download FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook.

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tweet out either Saturday or Sunday, but it's going to be the Washington money line with an adjusted under of, I think, 52 and then a Brian Robinson rushing prop that has not come out yet. But stay tuned for that because we will definitely be doing that one. FanDuel even lets you combine your bets for a chance for a bigger payout with the same game parlay. And also they are now live in Maryland, which is why we're doing that Washington bet. Marylanders, make sure you get on the action.

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see terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. So we did the Brady thing. Later on, a million dollar picks. There's a way where the NFC South gets super duper

duper weird if Tampa loses to New Orleans and Atlanta loses to Pittsburgh. And we would have Tampa at 5-7, New Orleans 5-8, Atlanta 5-8, Carolina 4-8. Our Panthers. I think this is realistic. Just FYI. I think the Saints could absolutely beat Tampa. And I think Pittsburgh is going to beat Atlanta. But I don't want to talk

about that with you. Real quick though, can I give ourselves a pat on the back? We, I mean, I actually am a little disappointed. I know you were sick, but like I must have texted you

a hundred times with no response. I was super sick. During Panthers, Broncos, we got that over. Bill, it was the most dramatic final two minutes of a football game in the history of sports

and just getting over that 31 points. The Broncos scoring 12 times and only one touchdown counting. There was 12 penalties. Took them back. Russell Wilson had 18 shots at the end zone. Cortland Sutton dropped an easy one. And we got it. And I was literally on a plane running up and down the aisle

high-fiving people. And I just wanted a text back from you being like, we did it, Schrager. It finally went our way. I didn't even get three dots from you. I know. I was pretty sick. This year, we're 6-19 on underdog parlays.

So that's been the one bright spot in a disastrous million-dollar picks. But Sharp has made me see in the light. It's too weird to do teasers and parlays this year. We're going to do the underdog ones because they're small saves. He was talking to us today about military training for the coaches. Oh, my God. This guy. He was locked in.

Yeah, so we're going straight up bets later. I was talking to this today about military training for the coaches. Oh my God. This guy. He was locked in. Yeah. So we're going straight up bets later, but I want to talk about the game of the day, which we're not putting a million dollar picks case. San Francisco, Miami, San Francisco is favored by four at home. Miami is a hot team.

Miami has been getting off to these great starts. I'm afraid to bet against them. I don't really like the spot either. And just betting on them in general against a physical team scares me. has been getting off to these great starts. I'm afraid to bet against them. I don't really like the spot either. And just betting on them in general against a physical team scares me because Tua's had two concussions this year. And it's always in the back of my head with Miami. Like what happens if he takes one more hit?

Tua's gotten better. I'm at the point where I might have to admit I was wrong on Tua. I never understood, all right, what's his thing? He's not that fast. Deep ball's not great, but it's the release. The stuff and the nerds who have adopted Tua, and you see some of the stuff on Twitter, well, they'll do the quick release, the things he sees immediately.

McDaniel has just been able to take advantage. It's like McDaniel's maximized any good thing Tua has, but now we're going to see him against a real hardcore playoff team with a good defense, physical. It's going to have him scouted. They're going to be hitting those receivers over the middle. What do you think happens in this game? First of all, this is my favorite game of the season so far.

Wow. I love this game. And I look at this game and there's so many different storylines. First off, the person who gave Tua maybe the greatest praise this week was Kyle Shanahan. And what he said, which was really interesting, he said he reminded him of when they had Matt Schaub in Houston. And I'm like, all right, that's kind of like a weird thing to say. But what he said was Schaub would put that back foot down, would have his first option. If it's not there, have his second option, and then would throw it away. And although Schaub can't throw the deepest pass, he was always great on the run. And that is exactly what Tua is doing. And he is doing it to perfection. He's not scared of safeties because Tyreek Hill's going deep. The safeties are so

worried about Tyreek Hill. The entire center of the field is open and Tua throws a very accurate pass. And if you notice, it's Tua to Waddle perfectly in stride. It's Tua to Tyreek perfectly in stride. And then it's out to the races. So quick. It's really good. So you have the respect factor here. But why I really love this matchup, the relationship between Kyle and Mike McDaniel is unlike any in the league. This is like Parcells-Belichick in a way. Obviously, not the same accolades, but the relationship. This sounds like I'm making this story up and I know Denver media would know it and the Miami media might know it. Mike McDaniel was a 10-year-old kid at training camp for the Broncos and lost his baseball hat. He had a Charlotte Hornets baseball hat. I swear this is true. This has been reported,

verified. And he was devastated by it. And an assistant coach or a video guy for the Broncos was like, all right, I'll get to the kid a new hat. Gets the kid a new hat. It's McDaniel. It's a 10-year-old. And the guy worked for the Broncos. And the guy ends up dating Mike McDaniel's mother. This is all true. Follow this story. Start dating. And then Mike McDaniel becomes part of this Broncos lore of like, all right, the video guy is Dayton, the mother of this kid who lost the hat. Mike Shanahan takes over as the coach. The ball boy for the Broncos is Mike McDaniel. All right.

He becomes the ball boy during the glory years of the Broncos. He hits it off with Mike Shanahan. Mike Shanahan's like his father figure in the football world. He goes to college, goes to Yale, goes to play, comes back. And who's he working for? He's working for Gary Kubiak and he's working for Kyle Shanahan with the Houston Texans. He goes from Houston with Kyle Shanahan. He goes from there to Washington with Kyle and Mike Shanahan. Then he goes to Cleveland for a cup of coffee with Kyle Shanahan. Then he goes to Atlanta

with Kyle Shanahan. Then he goes five years with the 49ers with Kyle Shanahan. And now finally as a head coach, and he's going up against Kyle Shanahan. It's one of these great mentor... These guys have known each other close to 30 years. And Kyle has always had this guy that comes with him whenever he takes a job. And it's always Mike McDaniel. And I find the fact that McDaniel was... So I wonder who has the advantage out of that. That's the question. So if I know your offense inside and out, but McDaniel's been in San Francisco the last five years before this, and he knows D'Amico Ryan's defense. He knows D'Amico, he knows all those players. He also was on a coaching staff that had D'Amico Ryan as a player.

So the information is probably all in Mciel's favor that he knows the personnel he knows all that but then there's this like you know and i don't do star wars stuff i've never been that guy like kyle brant is like the star wars guy and he's like this is a padawan jedi type deal or whatever the hell that means i'm sorry to all the andor fans out there and andy greenwald can correct me but like there is some sort of like mentor. Shots at Greenwald, wow. He knows that stuff. I know. He knows that stuff.

I like those guys. Though, like that relationship. So who has the advantage? The guy that's like the young buck or the one that like, you know, taught you the ways. And I love the dynamics because when McDaniel took the job in Miami, he like tried to raid some of Kyle's staff. So John

Embry was already let go, but he took him on and he was a former assistant head coach. He's in Miami now. Wes Welker was in San Francisco. He's in Miami now. They go and they sign Mostert. They go and they trade for Jeff Wilson. They signed Shurfield. They signed Craycraft. Aldrick Robinson's a coach. Mike Person's a coach. All these former Kyle Shanahan guys are in Miami now. And here they go with this hot young team and this quarterback that's never played in a big NFL game up to San Francisco against the best defense in the league. If there's nothing better than that right now, I don't know what is. Miami's in the stretch now at San Francisco, at the Chargers, at Buffalo. Chargers will basically be a home game. Buffalo's going to be hard. And I got to be honest,

if they're 8-6 after this, I wouldn't be surprised. Chargers game was flexed at prime time. If they're 11-3, 11-3, I wouldn't be surprised. That's why it's a stay away.

I don't, we're going to know with this Miami team after these games. My, my lean is that they might actually be better than maybe people think.

But I also wonder about them putting games away, which Sharp talked about on the podcast on Tuesday. Even if they got a lead in San Francisco, could San Francisco come back? We know San Francisco scripts that first half. They're always a really good first half team, but we also know Miami can come back.

I just think it's a stay away across the board. I'm with you. I can't wait to watch it. I love it. It's interesting. It's a top three game. You've got Chiefs-Bengals up against it with Nance and love it. It's a top three game. You've got Chiefs Bengals up against it with like Nance and Romo. This is like, you know, a Fox regional game in a lot of ways, but I think it might be the game of the week.

Like I cannot wait. And it might be a Super Bowl preview. I don't think that's crazy to say. One other game that I think is really interesting, and I think we're going to talk about it for Underdog Parlay. Well, actually both of these. This is a great week of football.

There's five awesome matchups. Best matchup week we've had and Thursday night game's good too. But Titans-Eagles. This line of things started at seven. It's down to four and a half. It's in the Vegas zone, which is a red flag.

Titans coming off a loss, which Sharper and I talked on Tuesday. I wish, I bet on the Titans and it's like they didn't totally need the game. The Bengals did. That was like a must win for the Bengals. For the Titans, it's like, eh, we're up by three on everyone in our division. But now I'm starting to feel like this is a little more of a must win. They have the two games left with Jacksonville, right?

They have a lead, but it's not like an insurmountable lead. And Jacksonville, signs of coming on. I'm not going to say they're coming on, but it's not like an insurmountable lead. In Jacksonville, signs of coming on. I'm not going to say they're coming on, but signs. They had a nice one against Baltimore last week. Then you have this Eagles team that is coming off a jerk circle win. Where it's like,

oh my God. The media is just like, let's get in a circle. They had 400 yards rushing. I know. That's the thing. The jerk circle win fucking scares me because it's just three days of everybody saying, man, you guys are so great. I can't believe how good you are. And it's like,

that's never good. One of the things is I was trying to figure out what I was doing wrong with million dollar picks this year. I was getting away from the Forrest Gump type narratives that used to work for me really well and getting in the weeds with comparing DVOA and shit like that. I just think fundamentally, it's a we need to prove something game for the Titans versus an Eagles team who's like, did you see us on Sunday night? Did you see that when we ran for all those yards? Titans have the number one rushing DVOA since week three. The Green Bay thing is not happening again.

Them losing to Cincy didn't bother me that much. I thought Cincy played really well in that game. Titans missed a field goal. They had a dumb penalty at the end, but that game was close. And I think those are two of the better teams in the league. So anyway, I like the spot for them. They're plus four and a half. They're plus 190 to win the game.

The Eagles are cruising. They got the Giants next week at Chicago. They're already thinking ahead like, hey, if we take care of Dallas in week 16, it's a wrap. We get the one seed. Maybe just looking past, I also like you and I both love Vrabel. I just wouldn't underestimate Vrabel in this spot. Plus four and a half. I liked what I saw from Burks last week. I like this Titans team. I do too. And I think there is a desperation with this team right now that they play in a way on the road that is really, really impressive. I thought the game that Malik Willis played in Kansas City, they were awesome that game.

They found a way to manage it and almost snuck out a win there. They went to Green Bay and they won. They oddly enough lose these weird wonky games at home. They lost to the Giants at home this year. They lost that game last week to the bangles. There was the call at the end, the field, all that stuff.

They should have won that game in a lot of ways, especially if mixing and chase are out credit to the bangles. I think that they can run the ball on the Eagles and I think they can shorten this game against the Eagles and Jordan Davis or not. The Eagles run defense has left a lot to be desired of late. The question is, can they score enough points? Cause I think the Eagles can put up points if they need to. I'm not saying it's a stay away and straight up. It's hard for me to say, yes, Titans in Philly.

But if you're looking at this list and you're looking for an underdog pick, I think the spread is way more than it should be. Yeah, this is a three-point game. There's an A.J. Brown revenge thing too, but that's why I like them as an underdog parlay. And look, Philly might win, but I just think you're getting some value. And especially with the plus 190, it's almost two to one odds that Tennessee is going to win in Philly. Great. I'll take it. Let's take it about putting them with the Jets. The Jets are three point underdogs in Minnesota. They're plus 132. The DVOA stuff is, this happens every year. There's always a team like that. Minnesota is nine and two. They're 22nd in DVOA. Jets this happens every year. There's always a team. Minnesota is 9-2. They're 22nd in DVOA.

Wow. Jets are 7-4. They're 9th in DVOA. And that's with, what, nine Zach Wilson starts? Yeah. And Zach Wilson, who's gotten steadily, if you were to do a chart, steadily worse. His best game was against the Steelers when he came in off the bench in week three

or whatever that was. He's gotten worse. He didn't know who he was going to play. I think this Jets team is good. I do. I watched every play against them with the Pats in the span of four weeks. And I really thought the Jets could have and probably should have won both games. And Wilson just murdered them. Just flat out murdered them.

And they got bad luck on the rough in the passer when Mack threw the pick six. If that guy doesn't rough Mack, the Jets are up and that game's over because I don't think the Pats could have come back. Yeah, and if he doesn't throw three,

if he throws two picks and not three in that game, the Jets might be able to win that game. Yeah, and Mike White, like whatever, but it's not like Minnesota is not going to pressure him

that much. Mack had like no pressure last week. I think the Jets are going to not going to pressure him that much. Mack had no pressure last week. I think the Jets are going to be able to block him. The front four is going to be able to at least pressure Cousins a little bit. Absolutely. And then, I don't know, sauce on Justin Jefferson. That's not nothing. It's a good matchup.

And the Jets, when they lost Brees Hall and Elijah Veritaker, I was the first to be like, oh, those are too big on offense. They're not good enough on offense. They start a guy, Zonovan Bam Knight last week, undrafted at an NC State. Goes for 100 yards. Big fantasy free agent this week. He went for like 20 bucks and went to my leagues. And you know what?

It's like, all right, okay, December. We have another set of fresh legs now. I know because I was shocked he wasn't on the field beforehand because all training camp, that's all I heard from the Jets was like, we got this guy Bam Knight. So it's not just Brees. We got Michael Carter. We got Bam Knight. And then they went and traded for James Robinson. He was a healthy scratch last week. So now you have this like second wind of like a fresh young rookie. And I think he had the most yards ever for a Jet player in his NFL debut. That's cool. I thought he was legitimately good. He was. He was. He was a powerful running guy. He was getting yards. Yeah, he was good.

I also think that third stringer in Atlanta is really good. Tyler Algier. Oh, Algier to BYU is great. Fifth round pick. It's a fucking battering ram. I don't understand why he doesn't play more. Back to the Jets real quick. Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson,

they have been non-existent for weeks and it might be as simple as the quarterback wasn't getting them the ball. And then Grant Wilson had two moves in that game. He looked incredible. And the little way he broke it for the touchdown. Like, I don't know. I'm in on the jet. I think Garrett Wilson is elite.

I like Conklin. Conklin had a couple of big catches last week. I think in general, he's good. I just like the framework of that team. I think they're pretty good. Unfortunately, the Lions, maybe it's a good sign for a Jets bet that the Lions only minus three. It almost feels like trying to trick you.

I heard your takes on it, and I got pushback on it, but I don't think it's crazy. A lot of Vikings fans are very sensitive. We're 9-2. Give us our respect. And yeah, you beat Belichick on a short break. That was really good. I would think that the Patriots, Pierre Strong roughing the punter.

I know. Some ridiculous decisions. God, don't get me started. And then, like you said, the Judon offsides makes it 3rd and 12, the 3rd and 7, and then you get the big play to Jefferson. I'm not saying that the Vikings didn't win that game, but that game felt like the Patriots really had a lot of opportunities and might've given that game to Minnesota.

And if Minnesota loses. And it was a Thursday night. Like, I feel like if it's a Sunday, that would have been better for the Pats too. You know, I'm just saying the jets, they can hold their own there. It's just, they're a young team. Can they go on the road and can Mike white win in a hostile environment? It's hard to play there. Minnesota's just they're a young team. Can they go on the road and can Mike White win in a hostile environment? It's hard to play there.

Minnesota Jets this week at Detroit next week. And then it gets super easy. Oh, they might lock this thing up before, you know, the next couple of weeks. They might be done with the NFC North.

So if they win this game, they're a stealth one seed candidate. And we saw what I talked about at Sunday and I talked about it. Maybe it was sharp. Somebody this it, maybe it was Sharp, somebody this week, but they win this, they're 10 and two

at Detroit, home Indy, home Giants, at Green Bay, Rodgers will be out by then, at Chicago to wrap it. Like they have nobody left. Like every year we see

a team like this that's like 14 and three, 13 and four. And people don't believe and they're like, yeah, it was Tennessee last year and of course I was like, alright, I'll talk myself into this.

Then they lose at home to Cincy. Speaking of Cincy, I don't like the line in this game. It's Chiefs minus 2.5. I wish it was 3.5. The 2.5, I don't know what that does. You're not getting enough value with the Bengals' money line either. I really think the Bengals

can win this game. There's a bet. Casey wins the first half, but Cincy wins the game. That is 8-1 on FanDuel. I'm going to let my hands off the wheel. I know Warren Sharpe did a 90-minute dissertation with you. I'll trust you. Cincy's second half.

First half, second half, all that stuff. That's on you guys, and I love where you're going with this because it feels like there's an extra layer of research here. Yeah. Well, Solak, when I had him, I mentioned to him and he looked it up and Casey is 42 and five when leading after the first half. So we're going to talk it out. But I could see a world where Casey goes up early.

It's basically like Pacheco is the running back now. That's good though. No, it's fine. That's basically like Pacheco is the running back now. That's good though. No, it's fine. That's your only running back? I just wonder. You're up seven. You got to protect the lead in the third quarter. And then it's like, cool, Pacheco again. I don't know.

It feels like a nice spot for Cincy. Here's the other thing with Cincy. Casey this week. Deshaun Watson next week. At Tampa. At New England. Buffalo-Baltimore home to finish.

Like, there's no outs for them the rest of the way. No, there's no outs. They're in playoff game mode now, which I like. And Baltimore's schedule is actually quite easy. So you've got

that double-edged sword of like, we need to win. We can't rely on Baltimore losing these games. The Cincinnati thing is this. This is their biggest home game in maybe a decade. Oh, biggest regular season home game.

Yeah, the way they're playing up this thing. And Elizabeth Blackburn, who's a young executive, she's Katie Blackburn's daughter, who's Mike Brown's family. And she sent a letter to season ticket holders like, we need you in the building. It's going to be cold. This is where our playoff push runs.

And Jamar's back. Joe Mixon's supposed to be back reader readers talking to rocker readers talking a little bit on twitter and then i don't know if you saw the whole thing yesterday with justin reed but the chief safety like didn't know higgins his name thought he was talking about hayden hearst thought he was talking about higby. And there's this whole thing. And the Bengals guys seized on it immediately. T. Higgins tweeting at him. Jamar Chase tweeting at him. DJ Reader tweeting at him. I feel like the Bengals know that this is a nationally televised game in

Cincinnati at 4 o'clock in the afternoon with Nansen Romo on the call and everyone's going to be watching. I might just throw them in. I got to think about this more. You know what else? Mixon goes out, right? Gets a concussion. And they kind of found something with P-Rod.

Oh, Samadji? Samadji's been good for them for two years. No, I know. But I was never a huge fan. I always felt like there was a drop off. And what he showed, I felt like he went up a level as something. So now I feel like they have this two-back thing that I didn't feel like they had five weeks ago.

They just seem healthy. Burrows got the swagger back. And, you know, KC, they had that one awesome win. What was the 44-23 win? When they laid the smack on somebody. I'm going to look this up. Hold on.

But other than that, they've, they've, they've definitely let teams hang around. But they win. That was against, uh, that was at San Francisco.

Yeah. But that was pre McCaffrey trade. You know, there was a couple of guys out on San Francisco, whatever. Um, they win, they pull the games out.

They win though. That's the thing. They always have a way. Cincinnati. Yeah, they do. They've had a few of those too. And they did it last week.

I thought Tennessee was going to come back and grab that game. And guess what? They've beaten Kansas City by three the last two times they played. Yeah. So I like that one. The only other one, you have two minutes to try to talk me out of taking the Washington Seawards over the Giants minus two and a half this week. There's a bet where you can do the Washington Moneyline with the Washington. You can adjust the under to 52 and a half. They get back Olajari, who's one of their best pass rushers.

They get back a big Evan Neal, the tackle, like they get guys back and they're going to try to save his salvage this season. This is it like this. They have to win here. They play the commanders, the Eagles, the commanders again, like they've got to win this game and they're at home. And it's like, are the Washington commanders, this unbeatable team? My fear is their're front four. If they get Chase Young back, they've got pain.

They've got sweat. They've got Allen. They've got Chase Young. I don't know if that's just too much for the Giants offensive line. But to me, this is a pick-em game. I don't think that the Commanders are going to light up the Giants at MetLife on Sunday. So Washington's only scored 30 points once this season. And they needed one of those

lateral TDs when you're winning the game and the other team starts lateraling. That's how they got to 30. They've won six of seven. They're good. They lost to many by three.

The Giants have their one and three in their last four and the one that they won was that Houston game that they tried to give away for three hours. The thing for me,

here's why I'm really against the Giants. And I've been watching. Barkley's not right. I don't think he's the same guy that he was in September. And I don't know whether overuse, he got worn down. I don't know if his shoulder's fucked up. 26 carries for 61 yards, but he looks like the Barkley from last season, not the guy from September and October. And I just don't think, but he looks like the Barkley from last season, not the guy from September and October. And I just don't think, unless he's Superman, I don't think they can beat a team with a good defense. And we've watched Washington over and over again, just pull these games out. I just think to me, they're just better. I just think they're a better team.

I also think, you know, the Giants offensive line was healthy early in the season. They're completely rattled again. And you've got guys like Nick Gates is a great story and Giants offensive line was healthy early in the season. They're completely rattled again. Nick Gates is a great story and Giants fans know. He hasn't played football in a year. He's starting last week. It's great stories, but Saquon is... It's him and then it's a lot of

guys that you're asking a lot out of. Saquon is their number one player. I think teams can zone in on him and it's not going to be easy when you've got eight men in the box and hey, Saquon beat their number one player. I think teams can zone in on him and it's not going to be easy when you've got eight men in the box and like, hey, Saquon beat us, you know? Well, the other thing is, basically, it was a little gimmicky, right? The first four or five weeks, like, where are the Giants doing? Wow, they're going to use Danny Dimes like this?

Yeah. I don't know. After like six, seven weeks, you study some tape. You're like, hey, when they're in this thing, I'll put this guy here. I don't know if there's a plan B for them. If you've noticed, they've been throwing the ball more the last couple weeks. Trying. DJ had over

300 two weeks ago, but I don't see it. I think this Washington team's good. I think it's a playoff team. I agree. And I think they're really good and they're sound and Robinson runs the ball hard. I don't think that the Giants should be favored by any means. I'm just saying, if the Giants have anything

left in the tank, they have to do it this week. There's no climbing out of this hole for them. So it's like, now or never for the Giants. Well, they have Philly next week, too. Yeah.

Washington has Giants this week by home Giants. So they're just like, man, if we take care of this by week, the coach can do the hole. I'll see you guys on Wednesday. Yay! Let me ask you

if you're the Giants general manager Joe Shane who inherited this roster and the salary cap nightmare are you bringing back Daniel Jones and then question two

are you bringing back Saquon from Big Money I don't want to pay Big Money for running backs I would just go get Damien Harris for one third of the money and be totally happy.

Or whoever. There's like 10. There's going to be a lot of agents. They're just falling out of the woodwork. The fucking Jets. It's like, hey, I'm this guy. All right, throw him in. What about Daniel Jones? If he demands a certain amount of money, do you think he's done enough to deserve... He's not going to get

Lamar or Watson or Allen money, but does he deserve starter money? No. I think you roll the dice with the Minshew type or... I don't know. I would trade for Bailey Zappi or Bradley Zappi. Either one. Bradley's good. Bradley Zappi can sling it. Bradley Zappi

can sling it. So can Bailey. Look, it's like basketball where if you're paying whoever $15 million a year to be the seventh best guy on your team, what are you doing? look it's like basketball where if you're paying whoever 15 million bucks a year to be like the 7th best guy on your team

what are you doing just go try to game the system try to get an up and comer I'd like Jones but if it's more than like 7-8 million a year

you can't do that oh no it's gonna be I mean I would think yeah you just can't yeah I would think he's looking at like and I don't say this

talking to his agents or anything I would think he's looking at like, and I don't say this talking to his agents or anything, I would think Daniel Jones' starting price is like 18 to 20, I would imagine. I don't know where he's getting that. All right, Schrager. So we'll put that

Pat's Brady stuff up tonight. Yeah, I'm going to send it to McCourty. We'll see what he says. You hit it on McCourty after. And let's see. But I think there is some smoke here. Good to see you. Hey, I'm in LA send it to McCourty. We'll see what he says. You hit it on McCourty after. And let's see. But I think there is some smoke here. Good to see you. Hey, I'm in LA this weekend for Fox.

Team USA, 7 a.m. I will be up. I will be cheering. I like it when you talk about prong defenses. I love you knowing these things. Offenses, sorry. We got to start Aronson. I'm an Aronson guy.

I like him. Me too. Great young kid. All right, good to see you. You're the man. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too.

Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly, so you won't hear them coming. You won't hear them coming. See?

Safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really.

Ugh. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. All right, Benjamin Solak is here from the Ringer. We're going to talk cheeses. Holiday's coming up. Give us your cheese recommendations. What do you think? Going over to a Christmas party this weekend, what cheese am I bringing? I do not know. I'm caught off guard. I know. I figured you would be.

I've got the creamy Toscano cheese, which is like drenched in red wine from Trader Joe's. That stuff's incredible. Unexpected Gruy wine from Trader Joe's. That stuff's incredible. Unexpected Gruyere from Trader Joe's is incredible. St. Andre cheese, really good. It's like a butter cheese. It's like 75% fat content. That stuff's amazing. What else might happen recently that's been good? The reason for the

listeners, the reason I ask Ben this is he tweets about very few things with real passion. Football, cheese. That's really it, Philly. I had no idea that this would ever go off the way that it did. But now every time I'm on a radio hit,

somewhere like Phoenix Radio, and they're like, hey, how's cheese going? I'm like, cheese is still good. But it's long nights. You're watching Pac-12 football. You get hungry since 1 a.m. and you don't want to like make yourself something. So just go to the fridge, slice up a hunk of cheese

and don't think about what it's doing to your arteries. Have you had cheese curds? Love cheese curds. Absolutely. I live in the Midwest. Critical. Cajun cheese curds a month ago that were very good. Cajun cheese curds.

Yes, absolutely. Yes. Absolutely. Yes. And yeah, I used to live in Chicago. So I went to school. And so we would head up to Wisconsin for whatever reason because you're right there on the border. Wisconsin cheese curds. Eddie gas station, man. That was really good eats. The first time I went to Lambeau and cheese curds

was like popcorn there. And we were like, whoa, cheese curds. They're really going for this. Then we had some. We're like, oh my God. Have you had poutine? Yeah. Poutine. Unbelievable. Yeah. We used to go to Canada every single year growing up. And it was always a thing. You had to make sure you go and you went to a poutine stand. They know what they're doing. Fries, cheese, and gravy. It's a good call. So what's your single favorite cheese? It really, like it earnestly does change. So it evolves and changes depending on the seasons.

The St. Andre cheese, which again is literally called butter cheese. It's that creamy and it's that smooth. That stuff. If you're having a bad day, butter cheese will turn around real quick. You'll be alright. I am a big... I really like

fancy cheddars. Absolutely, right. I am a big... I really like fancy cheddars. Absolutely, yes. I don't know... Or when they do the Irish cheddar. I don't know what the Irish really know about the cheddar, but yeah, I like when it's got a little extra kick to it. I like when I put the knife

in and it doesn't break up. That's when I know I have the right cheese. Telemuk cheddar is the best brand you can get around, by's when I know I have the right cheese. Yes. And just like... Tillamook cheddar is the best brand you can get around, by the way. That I feel very strongly about. You put any grocery store cheddar, any regular cheddar against Tillamook, Tillamook's going to win.

Whole Foods has some good cheddars. Yes. They go a little extra, but they're... We don't go to Whole Foods because my wife feels very strongly about the bougie-ness of Whole Foods and how it reflects upon us as a family. Very fair. Yes. But when I sneak my way into a Whole Foods

cheese section there is really good. LA, as you know, the gourmet grocery store is a big thing here and they're everywhere. But the cheese they have a, Whole Foods has a giant cheese section. I like a cheese section. I like to go where there's like some's in the fridge, there's some in barrels. I like a cheese section. I like to go where there's like some's in the

fridge, there's some in barrels. I can just look around. We're trying a new thing this week. We're going to do match-ups. You wrote down some match-ups. We're looking at week 13 through the eyes of five match-ups. These can be player against player. These can be player against coach, coach against coach, team against team. It could be scheme against scheme. It could be anything you want. So you're going to throw some matchups at me and I'm going to react. Right.

So number one, and this is maybe the matchup of the year so far. This is Tua Tungabailoa, the Miami Dolphins quarterback against Fred Warner, middle linebacker for the San Francisco 49ers. People might not realize, like they might know the name Fred Warner, but yeah, he's a good middle linebacker.

This is a foundational player. This is arguably one of the most keystone, important defensive players that you'll find in the league. Stats for you from NextGenStats is Keegan Abdu's piece. Since drafting Warner, the Niners have allowed 71 completions to the intermediate middle of the field, 15 fewer than the next closest defense. Completion percentage expected, 56.5%. Only defense lower than 58% to the intermediate middle of the

field remember how like the seahawks had earl thomas and everybody else was like yeah it's time to play single high and it turns out nobody else had earl thomas a lot of teams are trying to play quarters a lot of teams are trying to play split field safety is too high and it turns out not a lot of teams are fred warner so it's a lot trickier than you thought it was because if you're gonna play split field coverage you need a middle linebacker who can cover. Not a guy who can kind of get away with it on third down. You need a legit coverage player. Fred Warner.

So not Juwan Bentley? Not Juwan Bentley. But that's the thing. The Patriots know where their bread's butter. They're not trying to play quarters. They're going to play man coverage because they know they can hide that player. Are you anti-Bentley? I'm anti-Bentley? I'm anti-Bentley if I see him running a yard

behind a running back or receiver and I'm just like, this could end badly. Nothing good is happening here. Bentley is awesome. We like Bentley, but he is what he is. He's awesome for the way the Patriots play their linebackers, which is basically like sledgehammers on anvils. Just go hit somebody. It is, yeah, when you can get him into coverage

and stuff, but he's evolved cool as a player. L dun tun being able to plug bentley and it's been it's been impressive regardless fred's not a juan bentley six foot three 230 pounds this guy can play wide receiver in a different life he plays middle linebacker has unreal coverage instincts well tua and this dolphin's offense throws to the intermediate middle of the field more than any other offense in the league 68 of his drop offense, throws to the intermediate middle of the field more than any other offense in the league. 68 of his dropbacks have been targeting the intermediate middle of the field. Next closest is Tom Brady at 47. And Tua's missed time.

So this is, no team relies on this area of the field more passing the football than the Dolphins. No team has been better defending this area of the field in the passing game than Fred Warner's 49ers. It's strength against strength at the total polls. At like one and 32, the best passing offense versus the league's 49ers. It's strength against strength at the total polls. At like one and 32, the best passing offense versus the league's best defense.

If the Niners cannot play zone coverage and take away the middle of the field with Fred Warner, because nobody's done it against the Dolphins to this point. If the Niners can't do it with Fred Warner, nobody can do it. And defenses ever have to just stop trying.

They have to choose to play man coverage, try to press Tyreek Hill, do something else. Because if the Niners can't take it away, zone coverage with Fred Warner, nobody can. Huge, huge, huge defining matchup for what we believe about Tua and also how defenses play the Dolphins

through the rest of the season into the playoffs. That's awesome. Because in the previous segment, Schrager and I were talking about this whole Shanahan-McDaniel thing. And like, who has the advantage if somebody has been the mentor forever and now they're going against each other in a football game? Is it McDaniel? Because he's worked with Shanahan knows every single thing he likes to do

is with going against Ryan's and the San Francisco defense for five years. He has all these advantages or is it Shanahan? Who's like, I taught this guy, not everything he knows, but a lot. And I know how I would use that team. And I know where the holes would be. And let's exploit that. Who do you think has the advantage there? I think Shanahan has the advantage. And here's the reason why.

Shanahan's defensive coordinator, first Robert Sala and then D'Amico Ryans has been really, really good. And if you even look at what McVay's done with some of his defensive coordinators, kind of the Brandon Staley tree, Raheem Morris changing his stuff up, one of the things that you notice is that coaches from this tree, Shanahan and McVay, tend to have really good defensive coaches just as they have very good offensive coaches. And it's because there's cross-pollination. It's because Shanahan, and this has been reported and talked about, is very involved with the defensive side of the ball and the way that they want to play defense.

McVay famously hired Staley because he was on the Vic Fangio staff that once, with the Bears' defense, held his Rams offense to six points. These guys notice the defensive dudes who are doing the smart stuff, who are doing the thing that takes them away. So Shanahan has a lot of influence

on the defensive side of the ball. And because this McDaniel offense is similar to the Shanahan offense, but is very much a derivative. There are massive, important differences in this offense. Shanahan's vision on that, understanding, okay,

McDaniel's doing it this way for these reasons. He's changed my offense to be a little bit less yak oriented because of the way Tua plays. He's gonna be able to feed that information to D'Amico. And I think that Shanahan's influence

on the defensive side of the ball gives D'Amico rise a little bit that Shanahan's influence on the defensive side of the ball gives D'Amico Ryan's a little bit of an edge, gives them some more anticipation for what McDaniel's gonna bring to the table. McDaniel doesn't have that on his defensive side of the ball. So I think Shanahan has a slight edge because of how he works with the defensive staff.

Big brother, little brother action. I like it. Last thing on Niners Dolphins, this is, you just reinforced why this is a stay away for me for million dollar picks and for gambling in general. You can make a case either way. I don't feel good about it. I just want to watch it and

I feel like all the variables are in play. You can tell me Miami just solves it and they're off and we're going to leave this game going, holy shit, Miami. Are they now the favorites in the AFC? You could also tell me they're going to lose their next three, which are on the road.

If you took the names off of this game, so I didn't know the coaching staff, so you just show me the numbers you're looking at in terms of the way Tua's performed against zone, against split safety, two high teams, I would be all over Dolphins plus three and a half. No question in my mind. I see D'Amico, Ryans, and Fred Warner's name,

and I go, I'd like to wait a week. I love this one. These guys have earned my mind. I see D'Amico Ryan's and Fred Warner's name and I go, I'd like to wait a week. I'll focus on this one. These guys have earned my trust. And again, this is the final stand for zone teams against McDaniels offense. If they can't stop them, then you have to man up Tyreek Hill. You have to man up Jalen Waddle. You have to force Tua to beat you against vertical against man

coverage. We haven't really like the Patriots did that a little bit. They hassled Tua some. The Bengals did it a little bit. The two went out of the game. We haven't really seen that yet. So this is the final frontier for zone against Tua. We're going to learn a lot. And it's much more fun to not bet on a game where you're going to learn a lot afterwards.

What's your next matchup? AJ Brown returning to Tennessee. The Titans are coming to play in Philadelphia. But this is a huge revenge game for a player who is very upset that he was traded out of Tennessee. When you look at what the Titans do well defensively, such a well-coached team. They have a defensive coordinator in Shane Bowen who comes from a quarters world, a simulated pressure world, create confusion, rotate guys around.

And then senior defensive assistant Jim Schwartz is Jim Schwartz. I put four dudes on the line. I put seven dudes in coverage and I send four and I drop seven. And they blended this really, really, really well. They have a great run defense. They have an awesome blitz package where they send guys from depth

and drop dudes off the line and confuse you. It's a really, really interesting, well-coached team. What they can be hit on is outside receivers having big games. Stephon Diggs, 12 catches on 15 targets, 148 yards and three touchdowns.

Tee Higgins, just this last week, 7 out of 9, 114 on a touchdown. Matt Collins for the Raiders. This was early, week three. 8 for 11, 153 yards and one touchdown. Your outside contested catch adjust to the ball receivers can be successful against talented corners. Christian Fulton and Roger McCreary, good players, but smaller players. They'll cover you well.

Roger McCreary's got like, but smaller players. They'll cover you well. Roger McCreary's got like 28 and 7 eighth inch arms. The range of the catch point is a little bit limited. A.J. Brown, the way the Eagles have used him, has been a downfield contested catch, adjusted to the football player. They use him on these one-on-ones. Think about the way they use him on that Steelers game. And even Devontae Smith can do that to some degree.

So the Titans run defense, one of the best in the league. Eagles are not going to have the same success as they did against the Packers running the football and just kind of being a one-dimensional team. They're going to be forced to throw it, but they match up well in the passing game, especially with A.J. Brown going against these smaller corners. A.J. wins so much with size. I think you get a huge A.J. Brown

revenge slash homecoming slash you guys traded me game. And I still think it's close, but I think it's enough that the Eagles win. However, the AJ matchup is the linchpin matchup and the Eagles have the ball. If Brown's winning, the Eagles are winning. If Brown's not winning, the Eagles don't have a shot to move the ball in the Titans.

As an Eagles fan, have you, like what the AJ Brown trade? Are you a 10 out of 10 with it? An eight, a seven? Has it been slightly disappointing? It seems like he's been a little up and down. No, I would say I'm like nine out of 10, 10 out of 10 with it? An 8? A 7? Has it been slightly disappointing? It seems like he's been a little up and down. No, I would say I'm like 9 out of 10, 10 out of 10. He's been up and down in large part

because the Eagles are extremely pointed, extremely specific in the matchups they hunt on a week-to-week basis. Like the game he had against the Steelers. Huge volume, chucking to him down the field, winning man coverage, one-on-one, three touchdowns, A.J. Brown super dominant. And then like a week later,

they go to play the Texans and the Eagles don't really throw to A.J. Brown in zone coverage. When they get zone, they throw underneath the Dallas Goddard, they throw underneath Devontae Smith, they run their RPOs. That's what they want to be.

They're very, if you give us X, we will take Y, sort of an offense, which I think is the right way to call plays when you have a guy like Jalen Hurts. Because if, hey, you're just going to let us run it on you, we're just going to run it on you. We're not going to force ourselves into being like a high volume passing team. So AJ and also with Devontae, who like the film of Devontae Smith is nuts, man.

Devontae could walk. I think she and I did it on Philly Special. He can walk in like 10 teams right now and be their wide receiver one in terms of his talent level. He's not going to be a thousand-yard receiver probably because they just throw the ball enough, but you're not looking at that top 10 pick of Devontae Smith and the trade of A.J. Brown going, oh, these guys are busts. They're not putting

up Justin Jefferson numbers. They're not putting up Tyreek Hill numbers. You're just saying, hey, this is a balanced offense, so it's not going to have the we always pour targets into A.J. Brown every single game sort of sensation that you see for teams like Jefferson and Hill, so on and so forth. I have Devontae on two of my teams.

Fantasy. And it seems like he's always open, and I always feel like he could have 160 yards in any game. But as you said, they take whatever's happening. Last week, Green Bay's like, hey, just feel free to run on us, and then we're going to rush Hurts

by taking him on the outside and he'll just step up and scramble for 18 yards and we're not going to change anything. So it wasn't going to be a gigantic Devonta Smith game. But I think he's really good. It's weird because you're right. If he's on how many other teams, he would be, I don't know if he's Jefferson,

but if you switched him and Chase on the Bengals, is it that different? I think, I think what Chase gives you in terms of like his build and his ability to break tackles, change it a little bit. Chase is so good after the catch. Yeah. Um, I'd be curious what, if you put Devante Smith and Brandon Ayuk shoes, what things looked like then?

Oh, that's a good one. Yeah. So Ayuk, and again, like Ayuk is probably a little bit better of a tackle breaker, probably a little bit better of a blocker because he is a little bit more dense. Devontae is just so thin. But in terms of the ability to adjust, snap off routes,

and then break angles after the catch, he's a little bit of a mini Iuke in that regard. Iuke, T. Higgins, and Devontae Smith are like, you know, them and Chris Godwin, leaders in terms of like the wide receiver twos. And it's interesting to think about them in different offenses. But if you put Devontae in like a run after the cat Shanahan style offense,

he'd do wicked stuff, man. It'd be awesome to see. Well, I have a newsflash for you. I'm taking, I think I'm taking the Titans as one of the underdog parlay picks this week. Yeah, I think Titans cover. She'll pick the Titans to win. I picked the Eagles to win. It's going to be a tight game.

The line was about five and a half earlier in the week. I've seen some four and a halves today. I take it up to four. Tennessee plays these one possession games, and the Eagles have shown that they'll make mistakes and let teams back into games. They're not as mature as we may have thought they were when they were 7-0, 8-0, 9-0 runs.

Some turnover regression is part of that. I do think the Titans have a very earnest shot to beat the Eagles. And if they do, it's going to be a nightmare of a game. It's going to be Derrick Henry, 33 carries, 174 yards, two touchdowns. Just like a total grinder that makes me want to pull the hair out

of my skull. Well, I said to Schrager, I like that Tennessee loss last week and Philly had a circle jerk win where everybody just went nuts about how incredible and what a juggernaut they is. You never want to take the team after the circle jerk win. And then Tennessee is just a good matchup for them. They have the number one run defense in the league since

week three. I think it's a nice test for your team because you're going to have to play a team like this in the playoffs where they're going to be like, look, you're just not going to run the ball that well today. What else you got? Yeah. And you're right.

Maybe this is the big AJ Brown game. I couldn't agree more. I've said the Titans are kind of like mini San Francisco in terms of how that defense works. We front four gets pressure for us. We play quarters. We rotate. We'll do some weird blitzes at random times.

That is, it's very familiar to the 49ers family. And if the Titans run the ball well in offense, stop the Eagles run on defense, they get off the field on third downs and they grind this thing out. That's exactly how San Francisco likes to win their football games.

Very similar formula. So it very much is a bit of a litmus test what the Eagles might look like if you see a Niners playoff game. You and Shale are in on Sirianni, right? Yes. The pander king. He's built for Philly.

Philly's built for him. Good. I think he's been really impressive this year. I like his demeanor on the Pander King. He's built for Philly. Philly's built for him. Good. I think he's been really impressive this year. I like his demeanor on the sidelines too. I think the game management's been really good. I just think he's a good coach. I don't know if he's a top five coach for me, but I think he's top 10.

It's very funny because when Doug really launched with the Eagles in his second season, a lot of people wanted him to be coach of the year. He didn't get it because Sean McVay took the league by storm second season, a lot of people wanted him to be coach of the year. He didn't get it because Sean McVay took the league by storm that season, 2017. Mike McDaniel, who is kind of the next Sean McVay, in my opinion,

is taking the league by storm in 2022. You know who probably deserves to be second in coach of the year voting behind McDaniel? Nick Sirianni. I'd put Vrabel in there, too. Vrabel, probably three. Vrabel's got the lifetime achievement.

He should always be top three. Like every year. He won it last year and I was like, oh, that's right. He did win it last year because he feels like he should always,

he and Belichick should just get awards for just like, hey, you guys always do a great job. Congratulations. Moving on. The seven and four

with all the injuries they had, the fact that they almost won that Malik Hooker game, like just an incredible year by him. What's your next matchup? Patrick Mahomes versus Lou Anarumo. This was the defining matchup of

the AFC Championship game last year. Lou Anarumo, for those who don't know, Big Lou, is the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Love this guy. And he's gotten head coach buzz. I'm very glad he has. I'm not sure he'll take it because he strikes me as the kind of guy who like kind of just wants to coach defense

then go home and see his kids for the rest of his life. But like, we'll see. Who knows? The thing about Anarumo that's most impressive is that a lot of good defensive coordinators coach their stuff. They coach it well. They do what they do.

And then they get the right personnel for it. They get the right body types. They know some of the change-ups they need to pitch. And then they dictate. They dominate, right? D'Amico Ryan's with the Dolphins. Or know some of the change-ups they need to pitch. And then they dictate. They dominate. D'Amico Ryan's with the Niners. We play quarters. We rush with four.

We dominate. Here we go. And Arum was more in the Belichick vein. He'll run something out in Week 7 that he wasn't doing in Week 1. He'll change a look here and change a look there. Against the Titans, they're running bare fronts with Sam Hubbard on the inside. They've got two defensive tackles on the field. They're moving guys around.

They do a crazy number of things. Most notably, against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in that AFC Championship game, the Bengals dropped eight. They dropped eight defenders on 35% of their passing plays. So eight in coverage, three guys rushing. Huge number, astronomical number. The only other guy in the league

who was comfortable dropping eight at these high rates in a single game was Bill Belichick. He'd done it a couple times and against Mahomes in the past couple of years. Mahomes really, really struggled against drop eight in that game. He had negative 14.4 pass EPA, seven for 13. He threw in an interception. Wait, hold on one second with that.

When the drop eight, so part of that is you're basically daring the other team to run or you're just trying to confuse them with the coverage because you never know which eight. If it's eight going back, you know it's eight anyway. What do you think the Chiefs learned from that? It's a great question.

One, are you challenging the opposing team to run? A little bit. Typically, you'll be in two high shells and light boxes regardless. That extra player you drop is going to have a run pass key though. He's going to be on the line of scrimmage and when he gets an offensive lineman coming right at him, looking like he's

run blocking, he'll play run defense. It's not like he's dropping right at the snap. So he's still going to be involved in the run phase. So it's not like they're playing with three down defensive linemen. That's not the case. It's a little bit of a run challenge, but not so much. Secondly, what are you doing in coverage? That's the really cool thing about Lou

Anarumo. A of like the drop eight stuff that you might run is like, okay, run, you know, three deep safeties and five underneath, right? You see that in college. Well, Anarumo would run like man coverage with three, like five guys on five guys, then three bonus dudes, like one deep middle safety, another guy on Mahomes, another guy robbing,

just kind of floating around. He'd run, he'd drop one of the ends and have him kind of spy Mahomes from one side. And they'd force Mahomes out of the pocket a certain direction. He was really creative with the eight players he had. We don't see a lot of drop eight in the NFL. So the rules are very nebulous. He would run Tampa two and he would change who the Tampa dropper is. They just, with that extra body, they're creating, like you say, a lot of confusion. And so Mahomes was challenged in that game. Either get rid of the ball right now. Like, okay, get rid of the ball right now.

Like, okay, get rid of the ball. Go. Give it to your read. Let the players make the plays for you. Throw underneath. Or try to do your usual scramble drill stuff. Try to do your usual chaos stuff. And that doesn't work when there's an extra body back there.

Right? Oh, Travis Kelsey, go sit down in space. We've got three dudes around Travis Kelsey. There ain't a lot of space. You really put Mahomes in an awkward spot for how he likes to play. That was last year. Last year, Mahomes, EPA per dropback against drop eight, negative 0.1. This season, 0.42. One of the league's best passers against drop eight.

Still on the ball much shallower and getting a lot more. Yeah, this is the change the Chiefs offense made when they got rid of Tyreek Hill, brought in Juju Smith. Do you think it was partly because of that Bengals game? Yes, it's part of that. Another part of it was partly because of that Bengals game? Yes. It's part of that. Another part of it is Mahomes choosing to change how he plays. And this is the thing about Mahomes that has always been most impressive.

The arm, the no-look passes, the sidearm nonsense, whatever you want. The thing about Mahomes that is shocking is that more than most quarterback, any other quarterback in the league, he changes his play style. He will change the way he plays the game. He's mature enough to say, yes, I'm this talented, but sometimes I just have to dump the ball off to Isaiah Pacheco. And so I'm just going to,

and he has the humility and the self-control to do that. And so Anorumu, one of your best changing, molding, throw different pitches at you defensive coordinators against Mahomes,

who has changed his play style since the last time that Lou saw him. Huge, huge, huge AFC playoff defining matchup once again, because Lou's going to have new stuff for Mahomes, and Mahomes is going to have a different play style than Lou's seen before. So it's new challenges, very interested to see what the Bengals' defense brings out. I think

Mahomes still has the advantage, especially you know Chido Awuzie, the star corner for the Bengals, he's injured this year. But Lou is a great signal of what other teams might start to do against your offense because he's very good at building these game plans. You know, I've been fascinated by Lou because

just what the Bengals do in the second half, there's really nothing like it right now. And I was looking at his Wikipedia a few days ago. He spent five years at Harvard on the coaching staff. Then he was at Marshall and Purdue. He was the D-backs coach for Miami

for five years. He was the interim defensive coordinator there for a tiny bit. D-backs coach for the Giants and then landed with the Bengals really three years ago. He's from Staten Island. This is the first time he's even been at DC.

Like three years ago, he didn't even have that job. It's like an all-time late bloomer. You're right. Like I could totally see him being intimidated by the head coaching job stuff because I do think

he'll be the number one candidate or at least in the top three. Ivy League, man. Come on now. We had Lew at Harvard, Mike McDaniel from Yale. We're doing it, baby. We're finding the geniuses.

Get them in the building. I asked you about a bet I was thinking about with the Bengals game where the Chiefs win the first half and the Bengals win the game, which is plus 800 on FanDuel, which basically mirrored what would happen in the playoffs last year, where the

Chiefs almost put the game away in the first half. They didn't. The Bengals hung around. They do Bengals second half things. Get a play from Chase. Chase does really well against the Chiefs. That's another thing. It looks like he's going to be back. I kind of like the Chiefs.

I don't know how to play. I mean, I'm sorry. I kind of like the Bengals. And I'm not sure whether I just suck it up and take the Bengals money line or try to get goofy with that eight to one or whatever. Is it stupid a bit against the Chiefs? I do feel like they're a little bit vulnerable,

especially if it's just Pacheco and that's it as a running back. the Chiefs? I do feel like they're a little bit vulnerable, especially if it's just Pacheco and that's it as a running back. I don't know. I feel like they're beatable as much as I like them. They're my favorite AFC team. The red zone efficiency for the Chiefs was a little bit wonky last week.

They get hit how well they played against the Rams. They had that game they did against the 49ers. They put 40 points on them, scored 30 points in the second half. And then since then, the Niners haven't given up a second half point. The Chiefs are steamrolling people right now. If you like the Bengals to keep it close and you don't know if you like the spread or not, the total is worth, I think, half a look.

Just because I'd be very surprised if the Bengals win a game where the Chiefs are really low scoring for four quarters, which I know relative to Chiefs expectations, they were low scoring against the Bengals in the playoff game. I don't think that happens again, given the updates that Mahomes has made to this, to this, this passing attack worth remarking Mahomes currently right now by efficiency numbers, EPA success rate,

having the best season of his career. We don't talk about this because it's kind of expected that Mahomes is always the best forever, but the best season of his career, this guy was the best quarterback in the league last three years happening right now. So Mahomes is, is, forever. But the best season of his career, this guy was the best quarterback in the league the last three years, happening right now. So Mahomes is 2.0, evolving. And that's just a hard challenge

to keep that down for four quarters. I would assume as he moves through his 20s, he's going to continue to get better each year until he hits 29-30, right? Just seems logical. Yes, but he was having seasons that were top 10 ranked by EK per dropback over the last decade, 15 years.

And so you're kind of like, all right, well, he can't really get that much better, can he? And turns out he can a little bit. I said this to Schrager, the Forrest Gump part of this game, the Forrest Gump analysis, which I'm trying to do a little more of, because I feel like that's one of the things

that I've been overthinking some stuff with the picks. I think Cincy really needs this game. If they lose, they're seven and five, the Baltimore, the trying to pass Baltimore in the division becomes tougher, but then they have Cleveland at Tampa at New England, home Buffalo, home Baltimore left. I like that they're in kind of,

if you're looking at this, if you're Cincy, you're like, hey, every game's a playoff game now for us. Like, let's try to win our division. Let's also, like, we're not that far away from being the eighth seed. So we just got to go and it's got to start this week. It's in Cincinnati. Schrager was saying how it's the biggest home game, probably regular season game in the recent history of Cincinnati. Mahomes coming to town. I think there's going to be real energy. And also, they're finally healthy. And they have been healthy really all together all year,

except for the one cornerback. DJ Reeder coming back to this team for the Titans game specifically was such a very clear, huge boost. If you want to go like, if you do a list of like, these are the no-name stars in the NFL that the average fan should know,

and your list doesn't start with DJ Reed or defensive tackles for the Bengals, I do not respect the list. He is so integral to this team. And single-handedly, they had a backup center in for the Titans and was just eaten for four quarters. That Derrick Henry performance, I want to say, what, 2.2 yards per carry on 20-plus carries? All DJ Reed.

Hugely important player to this team. And it's what allows them to get away with, like you say, some of the drop eight stuff and some of the weakness in run defense. Give quickly, just here, two more matchups. Let's rip through them really quick. Yep, okay. My fourth one is Justin Jefferson

versus non-Sauce Gardner cornerbacks for the New York Jets. Jefferson right now leads the league in yards per route run from the slot, 3.63. Next closest is Tyreek Hill, 3.15. yards per route run from the slot 3.63 next closest is tyree kill 3.15 and they play him in the slot a decent amount the jets do not travel corners sauce gardener rookie out of cincinnati fourth overall pick uh you know a leader in the clubhouse for defensive rookie of the year incredible film all these targeted stats are insane but the vikings

can move jefferson and sauce won't follow him. The Robert Sala plays quarters, cover three. They're going to leave him on the outside. So DJ Reed, who's their right corner, just Jefferson on the left side of the phone. I like DJ Reed. Yeah.

Who's been playing very well. And Michael Carter, the second, their slot second year man out of Duke, who's been really solid for them this year. Hugely important players against Justin Jefferson. You're not going to see like people are people. The sauce got asked,

like, how do you feel about the Jefferson matchup? Well, I'm looking forward to it. The Vikings aren't going to give it to you. They have no reason, no incentive to leave Jefferson there,

and they haven't done it over the course of the season. Jefferson's going to play from the inside. It's going to be critical for Carter and DJ Reed, who played well, to really step up

against Jefferson. The Jets are going to score points. The Jets are, Mike White, Garrett Wilson, they're going to score points on this Vikings defense. It's a question of the Vikings

having a good offensive outing against a really good four-down rush, which we saw what happened against the Cowboys. They got pants around their ankles. They couldn't do anything against a dominant four-down rush team. They need Jefferson to get a working early and often, and they need to do it from inside of the slot. Huge game from Michael Carter II. Unheralded

star for that Jets defense. It's so funny. I was so excited for the Sauce-Jefferson matchup, but you're right. If they just move them around and play them next to the tight end and all this stuff, if the Jets aren't going to move Gardner, we're not going to get it.

I do like their D-backs. I think the Jets are underrated. I mean, I like them in the game and I think the line's fair. Minnesota by three is probably the right line. You can even, I think it'll get to two and a half

by game time. What's your fifth matchup? Fifth one is Scott Turner, offensive coordinator for the Washington football team, commanders, against Wink Martindale, the DC for the Giants. This game has over 40% points of playoff leverage in it for the winning team, right?

Right now, both teams have about a two-thirds chance to make the playoffs. The loser goes down like 25% chance, right? This is the race for the NFC wildcard, interdivisional game, teams that haven't played each other yet and they're going to play again in three weeks. The most important playoff game.

It's not Bengals-Titans. It's not Dolphins-Niners. It's not Eagles-Titans. It is this game, Washington against the Giants. Scott Turner's offense has been running the ball really well since Brian Robinson stepped in as the starting running back and since Carson Wentz went out. They're a top five most run heavy team

in the league and they run with pre-snap motion. Wink Martindale runs man coverage. And if you were to run man coverage against motion, guys are going to be running around, they're going to be spinning, they're going to go this way, that way, bumping over, and it's chaos. Mike Tanier on Meantime podcast with a great stat. The Giants run defense,

bottom three in the league in yards per carry allowed and in success rate allowed against running plays on which there is pre-snap motion. There's a way that this becomes Washington walking it down the field on the Giants the same way they did on the Eagles with Brian Robinson, with a decent offensive line, four yards on a cloud of dust. Martindale has to, has to, this is why he got fired with the Ravens, has to be able to change his defensive approach when it's weak. We don't really see him do it, and he hasn't really done it

with the Giants. So if you're looking, a game that I like this week is Washington to cover. I like Washington's team total over as well. Yep, and I think it's because Martindale continues to allow his Achilles heel to be his Achilles heel. This Washington team, not dangerous, not scary.

No, say it. They're like a six seed, seven seed. They're a top 12 team. Right, and they're getting Chase Young back and they have a takeover unit. This defensive line can dominate you. If everybody's hot. How about they won six or seven games? That's not nothing.

Exactly. It's the sort of thing where you're like, all right, Taylor Heineke, doesn't really worry me too much. Benjamin St. Juice is a corner I can take advantage of. Oh, they're not that scary. Yeah, but if you play them for four quarters, it doesn't matter what's happened in the past. You can't deal with this defensive line.

They're going to cause problems. So if I'm an NFC fan, which I am the Eagles, and I'm trying to figure out who I want to see in the playoffs, I'd much rather see the Giants than Washington. And I fear that's not going to be the case because I think Washington wins this one. Couldn't agree more. Would you take Washington minus two and a half or would you go Washington money line with the just under

52 and a half to get even odds? I like Washington minus two and a half. I like the spread a little bit more. Neither one of these offenses are explosive though. So the under is also the lean I have on the total. Yeah, because the thing I was thinking was Washington's only scored 30 points once,

and it was a fluke because it was one of those dumb lateral touchdowns at the end. I don't see the Giants getting... Against my Eagles. Yeah, I don't see the Giants getting 23, 25 points, especially with the way Barkley looks these days. So, all right, I'll figure it out. The only other one just quickly was

the Saints-Bucks game. Just give me your 30 seconds on what you see from the Bucks. Because to me, I just think they're not good. I don't think anyone in the NFC South is good. But even that line where it's like Bucks three and a half over the Saints. I'm like, why isn't this line like, why am I getting an extra half point with the Saints? This is like one crappy team against another crappy team. I don't think the Bucs, they can move the ball and their DVOA

and some of their advanced stats look better than maybe it is because they're so bad in the red zone. But I just think once they get inside the 20, it's so hard for them to score. Mike Evans doesn't look like the same guy to me. Defensively, they lost their right tackle, which I think is going to be a big deal. Brady doesn't really move.

And I just, I'm not sure I see it. I was thinking about the Saints either plus 3.5 or putting them in underdog parlay. Underdog parlay makes sense. 3.5 I think is fine as well. I'm personally under in this game at 40.5. Dennis Allen, the Saints defensive coordinator,

typically has done a really good job against Tom Brady and this offense over the course of his time there with the Saints. I've been on this for the Bucs since the beginning of the season. I haven't wavered. It's not a good team. They're not well coached. Todd Bowles and Byron Lefkowitz are not interested in winning football games. They're interested in doing what they like doing, and they think

it'll win them football games, despite contrary evidence as plain as the nose on their face. It's very disappointing and frustrating. Bruce Arians was doing a lot for this team. And Bruce also had his own game management issues and still was doing a lot for this team. The Tristan Wirfs injury also really just neuters the only vestige of hope along this offensive line.

Brady under constant pressure, not able to hook up with Mike Evans consistently. They can't run the football. Like once you can't run the football against the Browns, you officially cannot run the football period. It's just you're out. You don't have a chance. I don't see the way the Bucs move the ball effectively. And then the Saints,

yeah, the red zone production against the Niners hid what was honestly a decent offensive outing. I think the Saints, like with Andy Dalton, are fine. Chris Olave healthy really helps. Juan Johnson's been solid for them at tight end. I think the three and a half is the right lean think the Saints, like with Andy Dalton, are fine. Chris Olave, healthy, really helps. Juan Johnson's been solid for them at tight end. I think the three and a half is the right lean with the Saints, but the

under is where I'm stronger. I think this is just a slobber knocker and an ugly game that I inevitably will lose on a defensive touchdown with four minutes left. Bucs points since week four. 21-18-3 22-16 21-17-3 22-16-21-17

it's bad since week 4 they're basically middle of the road DVOA and they're awful in the red zone

they're 25th and I think it's cost them games left and right it's certainly you know you watch them just go 3 and out punting

all they needed was 3 more points in that Cleveland game. It's over, and they couldn't even get first downs. Yeah, and Fournette's back practicing this week, and Fournette is a net negative

for this team because Brady loves him. They give him 20-plus touches, and he's not as good as Rashad White. So Fournette back helps me. Yeah, I just wish I liked the Saints more, but I think I'm leaning the Bucs.

All right. Good to see you. Good luck against Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans this weekend. Say hi to our friend, Sheil, and I hope you have a good cheese to go along with the game. Appreciate it, Billy. Take care. What does possible sound

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Million dollar picks week 13. I went back to the drawing board. I've been getting killed this year. There's a lot of reasons for it. Warren Sharp on my podcast on Tuesday pointed out, this is not a year for parlays and teasers. Got it.

Noted about 12 weeks too late. I also got away with the stuff that used to work for me in the past. I got too bogged down in numbers and matchups and advanced metrics. And I got to go back to the Forrest Gump stuff. Just the dumb common sense. Wait a second. Sniff test. I went back.

I read every football column I wrote in 2010, which was a year that I did really well gambling. I almost made top five in the super contest that year at Westgate. Charlie Whitehurst ruined it for me. Fuck that guy, by the way. I would have finished, I think, fifth or fourth. But part of what I did back then was I would just look at stuff like, well, wait a second, that team needs the gain more than this team and stuff like that. I'm going back to that. We're going back to that

with a comeback edition of Million Dollar Picks. I am down right now with a number that starts with a four and ends with a million. And I'm not going to tell you what it is because we're going to win most of this back this week. We're going big this week. That's how confident I am. I'm back.

I'm fucking rocky doing pull-ups in the cabin in Russia. That's what you're looking at. I also was really sick this week, and I'm on steroids now, and I feel like I have the strength of 10 men, and I'm winning these bets. I'm just telling you. There's also a holy cross wrinkle coming. Stay tuned for that. First bet. It's part of my let's make the NFC South super weird plan. We need the Falcons to lose and we need New Orleans to beat Tampa. And then basically the NFC South goes into a washing machine and you should just pour some septic tank fluid in there. Septic tank water, septic tank mud. I don't know what it is,

but pour it in there because that will be the worst division we've ever had. I love the Steelers. The Steelers treated me beautifully last week against Indianapolis on Monday night in real life. I think they're pretty frisky now. Everybody's back. TJ Watt's back. Fitzpatrick's back. Tomlin's like kind of incapable of not at least going 500. Rest of the way, they go at Atlanta, home Baltimore, at Carolina, Vegas, at Baltimore, Cleveland. Notice two Baltimore games there. They're kind of not out of the division. It's kitchen sink week for them every week from here on. Playing Atlanta.

Pittsburgh's already played the toughest schedule in the league. Now it's about to get a lot easier. They got killed by Buffalo, got killed by Philly, got killed by Miami. That's fine. Last three weeks, beat New Orleans, almost beat Cincy, beat Indianapolis. They have the eighth rushing defense by DVOA right now, which is important because that's really all Atlanta can do is run the ball. Atlanta, five wins.

Seattle, Cleveland, Carolina, Chicago, all kind of pulled out of their ass. San Francisco was their only impressive one. Marriott has only thrown 200 plus yards once since week two. They have the worst passing defense in the league. And this is just to me a common sense thing. Pittsburgh's going one way. Atlanta's going the other way. NFC South, when you can bet against them, do it. I'm taking Pittsburgh minus one and a half in Atlanta for $1 million. That's pick one. Pick number two is another common sense thing. On paper, Washington at the Giants, why is Washington favored? These teams are equal. Take the Giants, lively home dog. All I do is I sit home and I watch football every week. Washington is better

than the Giants. The Giants, whatever happened those first six weeks when they were duct taping weird shit together, that's done. It's a wrap. We're over. This is a different part of the Giants season now. Washington's won six out of seven. They lost to Minnesota by three. They just beat an Atlanta team,

which they got a little lucky, right? It was the last play of the game. Easily could have been a touchdown. Maybe they lose, but they beat an Atlanta team that's built pretty similarly to the Giants. They're not a high-scoring team either. Washington's only scored 30 points once.

They needed one of those end-of-the-game lateral stupid plays where you get the touchdown and then everybody goes nuts because it ruined their fantasy or their gambling or their tees or whatever. That was how they passed 30 points in the Philly game.

I don't think this will be a high-scoring game. And I think Washington is going to win. And one of the reasons I think they're going to win is because I don't think this would be a high scoring game. And I think Washington is going to win. And one of the reasons I think they're going to win is because I don't think this is the same Giants team anymore. Barkley, 26 carries, 61 yards the last two weeks. Ever since his arm got pulled out of his body and they kind of rammed it back in, doesn't seem like he's been the same guy. And I think the league has figured out the Giants. I don't think they're a 7-4 team. I think they're a very well-coached team.

I think they were smoking mares and snuck. By now, we're in December. You can't do that anymore. Washington's better. Chase Young's back. They're not going to be able to run the ball in Washington. The only thing I worry about, I'm going to mention this, we could have the Heineken game where he just sucks,

where they blitz him and he makes some mistakes. They fall behind. He has five picks, whatever. I'm acknowledging that. I'm not that afraid of it. We're going to take the Washington money line and parlay it with the Washington under 52 and a half. And we're going to put $1 million on it. That's our second game. Third game, the Titans, which we discussed in detail with Ben Solak. They lose to Cincy last week. No shame in that. I think Cincy might end up being one of the best teams in the league

by the end of this Sunday. We'll get to them in a second. They had the first in the league rushing defense in DVOA since week three. Phillies 10-1. Just came off one of those games where they look so awesome on Sunday night. Everybody went nuts.

We all had the jerk circle. Oh my God, Philly. 400 yards. No one's done that since 1948. They're feeling great about themselves. Tennessee's not feeling great. Tennessee's 7-4. They have two games with Jacksonville

left in the division. They're going to take this game seriously. They know they match up well with Philly. They got A.J. Brown on the other side. They have two games with Jacksonville left in the division. They're going to take this game seriously. They know they match up well with Philly. They got A.J. Brown on the other side. They know he's going to be trying to have the revenge game. And I think they hang around. I think this line's too high.

I think this line should be Titans getting three. They're getting four and a half. Thought about putting them in underdog parlay. Talked about that with Schrager. I think we're better off grabbing the four and a half because I feel like we're getting a point and a half free. You might get the cheap touchdown late. And I think this is going to be a really, really good test for Philly. It's going to be a good game. I think it's close. We're betting a million on the Titans plus four and a half. That is bet number three. I have a conditional bet. Haven't done this before, probably because I'm stupid, but we do these picks on Thursday.

Things change. I want to bet the Raiders, plus one right now against the Chargers. But I don't know if Mike Williams is playing. I think Jacobs is going to play. Jacobs was awesome last week, and it seems like he's going to play. I don't want to bet the Raiders if Mike Williams ends up playing, because I think he changes the Chargers, especially in the red zone. Chargers last five weeks, They're two and three. They beat Atlanta and Arizona by four points total.

They're six and five for the year. They got Miami next week. They got Tennessee the week after. This could be a little stretch here where the Chargers go sideways. So it makes me think Mike Williams will try to play. And if he tries to play, I want to stay away from this. I don't mind Vegas though. Vegas four and four last eight weeks. They're actually ranked slightly

higher at DVOA than the Chargers, but it seems like they at least have their mojo back for like team that hangs around and then pulls some weird play out of their ass near the end of the fourth quarter. OT, conditional $1 million bet on the Raiders plus one only if Mike Williams does not play. If Mike Williams plays, scrap. Cancel. Rip up the ticket.

We're not playing it. But if Mike Williams does not play, we're playing it. I have a tease for $500,000 featuring the Cincinnati Bengals

plus two and a half at home against Kansas City. We're going to raise that up to plus eight and a half because I think that's going to be a close game that Cincinnati can possibly win. I think Cincinnati's a really good team. Everybody's back except for their starting corner. They can stop the run.

They know how to play this Chiefs team. They have a great defensive coordinator, which we cover with Ben Solak. And their offense has a little bit of a look back. Like, Mixon goes out, Piran comes in, he's fine. Actually, better than I think people thought. Chase is coming back now.

Great, but their receivers were good without Chase, and now you're adding Chase to that. Little Burrow-Mahomes thing here. Biggest home game in Cincinnati regular season in recent history, I think they at least hang around. And we have another bet where we're going to take them to actually win.

We're going to tease them up to plus eight and a half. And we're going to college for the other half of that tease. That's right. You see? My school, the College of the Holy Cross, got a first round bye in their NCAA playoffs and they're hosting UNH in a game that I should be going to, but for a variety of reasons, I could not, including the fact that I've had the Ebola

virus for five weeks. Now I'm on steroids and I'm not going to get in the baseball hall of fame. Holy Cross favored by minus seven and a half against UNH in Worcester. And they're going to come through and they're going to win. And then they're going to play South Dakota State next week on the road. I have so much faith in Holy Cross. I am so grateful and happy that Holy Cross football is good again. That we're throwing them into million dollar picks. And you know what? I'll give money to the school this year too. I was so mad.

I didn't give money for years because I was so mad that they destroyed our football and basketball programs. But now they seem like they care again. They have a good athletic director. They have a great football coach. I'm back in.

We're putting them in the million dollar picks. Holy Cross down to minus one and a half. We're putting $500,000 on that. Holy Cross to minus one and a half. Cincinnati up to plus eight and a half. And then two small ones. Remember I mentioned the Bengals? There's a scenario where Casey wins the first half and the Bengals win the game. That is plus 800 on FanDuel. And as we talked about, the Bengals win the game. That is plus 800 on FanDuel. And as we talked about, the Bengals are so good at adjusting at halftime. I just have to put 50K on that,

just a little taster, just to wet my beak. Last but not least, underdog parlay, which we've hit six this year in 12 weeks. Not bad. We're actually, we're six, 19 losses. But if you do the math, we're actually winning on underdog parlays. I wish there had been more of them. We do the saints back to our NFC South is getting weird. They, uh, they are three and a half point

underdogs against Tampa. We're doing the money line on that. And we're doing the money line on the jets who are playing in Minnesota. I'm all in on this Mike White thing just because he's not Zach Wilson. That's really the only reason. I think they could potentially beat Minnesota. Great front four. Minnesota, a little smoke and mares-y. Even in DVOA, Minnesota's 22nd in DVOA,

the Jets are ninth. I think the Jets are good. That's my opinion. I think they can go in and win their plus 132, throw that with the Saints and the Bucs game. That gets us to plus 512, and we're going to have to put 100K on that. I think the Saints, I don't think the Bucs are good.

I was so unimpressed with them last week as they stole money from me in real life when I had them against the Browns. So we're going to put 100K,-Jets parlay plus 512. There was one other bet I really liked. It involved the Browns who were playing the Texans. And I decided not to do it. I'm sitting out Browns bets.

I don't mean to get all moral, but it's just how I feel this week. I didn't want their stink in my million dollar picks if you get my drift. So the Browns are out. I'm not doing them, even though I think they're going to beat the Texans. Everybody else is in.

We're bringing the pleasant scent of Holy Cross into this. Holy Cross, Saturday, ESPN Plus. I think it's at 12 o'clock ET in round two. And this is the first undefeated football team we've had since I was in college when I was the sports columnist, sports editor, and the play-by-play guy for our team.

Go Holy Cross. I'm really proud of you guys. And hopefully you bring some joy and some luck and some happiness and some dollar signs to Million Dollar Picks. Until next week.

All right. Last but not least, my friend Nathan Hubbard is here. He hosts the Every Single Album podcast with Nora Princiati on The Ringer. He's done a lot of stuff in the music industry and he's my number one music friend that I talk to when things in music happen,

just in life. And he's my friend. Christine McVie died, 79 years old, crucial member of Fleetwood Mac, a band that Nathan and I have spent more time just discussing in text or in person than any other band because we're the most fascinated by them.

It was my dream documentary forever. It'll never happen because they all, the relationships are so combustible. It just could never happen. And now it will never happen. And she, you liked her the most. So I'm just going to let you do your thing on Christine McPhee. Well, it's devastating.

But I don't think we're surprised, are we? I mean, imagine being the only sane person in a band full of maniacs. Stevie and Lindsay are screaming at each other. Your ex-husband is hunting down the lighting guy you had the affair with. Fucking Mick Fleetwood is eating the couch cushions. That would have killed me too.

But it's hard for two reasons. One is she was the glue of this band. She wrote half of the songs on the Greatest Hits album. She wrote, you know, Rumors is a top 10 selling album of all time. She wrote five of the songs on that thing. We just think about Fleetwood Mac

being Lindsey Buckingham and Stevie Nicks. Lindsey and Stevie in their relationship. And all of the drama that went with those two. But she was the one who wrote the first real hit that took them, that sort of put them on the map after being sort of in a drift band. And for me, she wrote Songbird, which is like the song. It's like a top five love song of all time on Rumors. And she wrote the most songs. She wrote more songs than

Stevie or Lindsay on Rumors. This was an incredible musician, an incredible songwriter. And it just for me, it portends like the old stars are dying, Bill. We have to get ready. I know. Jagger's 79. McCartney's 80. Paul Simon's 81. And they're all dying from

this era that can't exist again. It's not like when athletes die. It's like, oh man, I loved watching that guy. But they're just replaced by other football players and basketball players. These are rock bands that we're never going to have again. All of the bands in the 70s are in their 70s or 80s. And she happened to be the oldest one in this band. But it's sort of unfair that she goes first when, you know, I mean, the amount of cocaine consumed by that band, that band is basically the prequel to Cocaine Bears.

She was 79, which I was surprised by because I guess I had never thought of her age, but 79 means that in 1976, she was in her mid thirties. So maybe that's why she always seemed a little more mature than everybody else. I thought that thing, that band is so fascinating for so many different ways. I think Rumors is one of the five most memorable albums that's been released in my lifetime, just for all the drama and all the weird shit that was going on

as they were making it and the stories behind it, Silver Spring getting left out and all these variables. You and I could talk about that album for five hours and she's just levitating over all of it. And she's like the glue guy in a crazy basketball team, right? The guy is like, hey, you guys,

you can argue with each other and say, it's like she was on a team with Kyrie and Ben Simmons and James Harden and Kyler Murray and just name any other athlete who's always being talked about. And she's just kind of- Putting up 20 and 10 at night.

I wrote another song, guys. Yeah. Hey, guess what? Do you like this keyboard lick I put together? She got Bill Clinton elected. Yeah, you're right. I forgot about that. Songbird, I think ends up being her legacy.

Yeah. Just as the song itself. I think that's the go-to. That's where you start. And you always said, I'm sorry, you tempered it. You always said that was the greatest love song ever on the pod. You just said top five. I think you got scared off. Well, it's up there with Ugly Bitches by Coolio. It's between one of those two. I think the thing about Songbird,

and it's funny because even when she would sing it in concert there was this different vibe in the building for it it's kind of indescribable, there's something happening where it's just as she's singing and the notes that her voice can hit and what the song's about and it's not a typical pop song either. No. But she's singing and you just feel like birds should be flying around and you should be outside

like on a canoe as this person like just sings this song and has a choir behind them. There's never been a pop song quite like that song. No. And it starts,

it's two reasons. One is her voice. The second is the way it was recorded. Her voice, like the song is in the key of F, which she's this low alto. And the reason the song is incredible is it was recorded. Her voice, like the song is in the key of F, which she's this low alto. And the reason the song is incredible

is it's uncoverable. Like Willie Nelson covered it, but he just kind of turns it upside down. He doesn't really sing it. It's uncoverable because like the highest note in the song is a B flat, which is just a little too high

for a guy who's a tenor. And it's really hard to sing for a female, even a female who's an alto, with the sort of breathiness of her voice because she sings like a fucking songbird.

That's really what she was. There's this softness and delicacy to it. But so it's her voice, which also was the perfect compliment to Stevie Nicks. She could sort of sit under Stevie and harmonize in a way

that sort of anchored all of the up and down sort of volatility of the way that Stevie would singored all of the up and down sort of volatility of the way that Stevie would sing. But that's also the way they recorded this song. They put her in an auditorium in Berkeley.

She wrote the song in 30 minutes in the middle of the night. Back then, they have no tape recorder to put it down on. So she's so scared she's going to lose the song.

She stays up all night. They at least put it down so she has it. Then they put her in an auditorium think how crazy that is by the way nowadays you just turn your iphone on right so she's got to stay up all night uh while the rest of the band again is eating the stuffing out of the couches and just hold down the fucking fort so she doesn't lose this song they put her in an auditorium with 15 mics all around it they've got to get it in one take and

that's what's amazing about the recording on rumors is you can hear the room right yeah uh lindsey buckingham is strumming a guitar off stage but it's basically her and a piano took him all night to get it but she stayed up and nailed it and the way that they put it on the album right it's it's at the end of to remember, this is vinyl that everybody's listening to. So it's the sixth song. It's the last song on the first side. That song ends and you literally have to pick up the needle, turn the thing over.

So there's a bunch of space, right? And the next song that they go into is The Chain, which is like the anthem and theme song for Fleetwood Mac. So it's a purposeful placement on one of the greatest albums. It's an amazing song about a fucked up band and their weird relationships. Yeah, exactly. Which she, by the way, also was a writer on. Yeah.

So it just matters. Well, you make an awesome point about how you had to flip the albums. And then eventually, when we got to CDs, they still were in the mindset of, oh, we're making the album too. And that last song before you flip over became an important song, right? Yeah. And it was always like the sixth song, like in this case, the sixth song,

and then the first song, which was the seventh song of the other side. That song has to be good too. Right. So they would really construct the album, which is just, I was talking to somebody that we're doing a Music Box season 2 thing with, and we were just talking

about how people construct albums now. Right. And it's just like, people used to really care about this, and now it's like, here's a bunch of songs. I think some people put some thought into it, but it's not the same, because strategically, you had to get it right. Yes. And the first song, how you started the album, and how

it went through. So to end the side one with Songbird was actually kind of aggressive. It was. And the way to think about this for me is it's a lot like Abbey Road. Abbey Road, all about John and Paul, but George wrote Here Come the Sun.

Here Comes the Sun. And I think about Rumors and Songbird in the same way. It's this moment of pause in between the chaos around it that just is eternal. She writes, don't stop. She wrote, you make loving fun.

Sure. Oh, Daddy, which is probably my least favorite rumor song, but it was really about, it was the lyrics of that song or something. It's about one of the people in the band. You could guess as you listen to it. But that song ends up bumping Silver Spring, which becomes one of the most controversial coach decisions probably in history.

But in a weird way, makes Silver Spring a bigger song. Because Silver Spring just becomes this cult, deep cut Fleetwood Mac fan song. But then when they do the dance in 1997. One of the great YouTube videos of all time. Oh, I think it's the greatest. I actually think it's the number one greatest YouTube video of all time.

When they do it and Lindsay doesn't know she's going to go at him and it's about him. And she's also mad that they left the song off the album 20 years. And it all comes out and she fucking her eyes leave her body for like four minutes. There's lasers coming out of the sockets where they were. He's just playing the guitar like, what the fuck is going on here? And she's moving closer and closer to him. And then that ended up making that an iconic song.

So in a weird way, it was the best thing they ever happened to song. But McVie wrote 50% of the songs, as you said. And then there was that weird thing with her and Stevie where Stevie becomes a comet in a lot of ways.

But McVie's doing just as much work in the band, probably a little more. But Stevie's Stevie. How do you compete with that? Well, it's because Christy McVie was rock and fucking roll.

That's how. Like, she didn't give a fuck. Look, she... She really didn't. No, she had the affair with the lighting guy, which is her husband was the bass player. It's this fucking rock and roll. She left the band, right?

She stopped touring in 90. She formally retired in 98. She was gone basically for like fucking 20 years. Yeah. Who else walks away from a band at their prime? It's like Robert Plant, Steve Perry. Who else?

Henley. Yeah. I mean, but Henley, come on. He was always going to be in there. The whole band sort of walked away,

but she was fucking rock and roll. And I think you had to be that to be in a band with Stevie Nicks. And that brings up the interesting question, which is Stevie posted a very heartfelt handwritten note to Instagram yesterday calling Christy McPhee her best friend. And I think that was legitimate.

Do we believe this? Is this like how Barkley said he and MJ were best friends? MJ was always rolling with Oak. As you know, I mean, we've talked about just doing a Fleetwood Mac podcast, but then we thought that would be super weird. I mean, it was one of the initial ideas when we were batting around like every single album and stuff like that. I was like, should we just do

an entire podcast about rumors? Because we were both so fascinated by it. I really think they genuinely loved each other. And I don't think it was competitive at all. I think the issues were with the men in the band. I think the men made them get closer together was what was really going on. I mean, all the men in the music industry,

they had to sort of team up. But they didn't really... Look, when Stevie had her drug issues for a very long period of time... For the 70s and 80s? Right. And into the 90s, she had,

like, they were not together and she sort of was not saying particularly nice things and she was out. But then, they reconnected

when she rejoins the band in 2014. But let's be clear, Bill, she's in her 70s. It took until she was in her 70s for them to reconcile. That's some shit

right there. Yeah, and I think Stevie's probably doing more apologizing during that run than Christine McPhee. Yeah. Be my guess. But it is nice to see two women who sort of weathered the storm and again, stayed rock and roll and stayed together, not be competitive,

endure. I just think, I mean, Vegas, what were the odds that Christy would outlive Stevie even though she had five years on her? Well, I thought they complimented each other musically and vocally.

That's about as good of a combo as you're going to draw up. Whereas both of them separately, like yeah, Stevie had a solo career and all that stuff, but to be in this band, be on an all-star team was the best possible outcome for her. And then McVie, same thing.

And I think, then you look at Lindsey and all the stuff that he brought to the table. God damn, that dude was talented. And is. But just an amazing band. And then you have Mick Fleetwood playing like the C- drums with like a crazy intense look at

his face thinking about who he's going to go after that night. Lucky or drummer Mick Fleetwood or Ringo Starr? No the drum nerds think Ringo was like pretty high level talented there's no case for Mick Fleetwood a lot of charisma.

That's about it. I feel like Fleetwood Mac broke up a couple years ago in the form that they should have been because Lindsey and Stevie had their 19th whatever and then Lindsey's out. Once they started suing each other,

they fired him. Once they started suing each other, that was it anyway, but now it's really it. It's never happening again. Is it gone? Yeah, it's gone. There's no Stevie, Lindsay one last time. No. I mean, you know my take on this. Like I argue with my friend Hershey, we argue about this.

He's like, you know, going to see McCartney. It's like, alright. McCartney's 80. You know where I stand. I don't want to right. I don't want to see it. McCartney's 80. I don't want, you know where I stand. I don't want to go. I don't like to see my artists way after it's over. You know, it's like,

I've said this before, but if Bird of Magic were like, we're playing one-on-one pay-per-view tomorrow, I'm like, I don't want to watch that. Yeah. You guys are old. In music, you can get away a little more. I think some people have been able to cheat it.

Like Billy Joel is still really good in concert. I don't know how he does it, but it's fun to go. But he's very careful. There's like 12 a year or 10 a year or whatever, and he still has the energy. But for the most part, seeing the Rolling Stones at this point, it was embarrassing in the mid-90s. I just think knowing when to walk away is the great skill of the aging musicians. And some of these people do, some of them don't. Chrissy McVie understood when it was time to walk away and she stayed away for a long time. That's a really hard thing to do. The needle in the arm of touring money is a big thing. Oh my God. Well, especially we've talked about this before, but the nostalgia acts make the

most money. It's crazy. But the reason this one hit deeply is not just because the band and the music means a lot, but because it sort of portends what's coming. And I'm not excited about Bob Dylan and Robert Plant and Jagger, Nelson. Jagger, Richards. Yeah, I'm not excited about... Springsteen will live till he's 120.

He's fine. Probably. But even like some of the great ones like Seeger yeah you know like the Wilson sisters just these people that you have the classic rock

and then you have that second wave from like the late 70s on that really kept it going before you know pop started to

kind of take over but I just don't feel like we mourned the jazz greats when they passed in the 50s in the 40s 50s from the 60s it's this is the generation first generation of real rock stars who didn't have the curse of 27 year old death like you know uh hendrix and the like the people who made it are

now just being claimed and and let's be clear they lived they lived rock and roll. What an ad for smoking that all these people are making it to 80 years old. Oh my God. And other stuff. Yeah, I've been thinking about this stuff a lot lately because my son, you know, is in the advanced jazz band in high school.

So he's really getting into jazz and like the form of it basically. And he's started to like these Sinatra songs. So we've been listening to a lot of Sinatra and the Rat Pack. And so I played him the main event, which is one of my favorite, another like great YouTube thing where Sinatra makes his comeback in 1975. Right.

He's not really Sinatra anymore. He's got the rug on, but he's still fucking cool. He's still Sinatra. Right. And they sell out Madison Square Garden. And Howard Cosell

does the intro for him and they treat it like a prize fight. Like the middle of the ring is a ring. Or the middle of the arena is a ring, a boxing ring.

And Cosell does, we're in Madison Square Garden. And he does this three minute thing and there he is, the legend, Frank Sinatra, the chairman. Carol Channing's over here. And he set it up and Sinatra comes in and he fucking grabs the mic and sings. That's why that lady is a tramp, which is an amazing song.

And that song's canceled. And he's like, that's why that chick is a tramp. Oh, these birds. But so much charisma, but song's canceled. It's absolutely canceled. That's why that chick is a tramp. Oh, these birds. But so much charisma, but he's older. So we're watching this. I'm like, Ben, you got to see earlier Sinatra. Like what? Look at this 1953 Sinatra where he's just like...

So I was thinking the main event thing. It was cool. There was a nostalgia thing and he was still good enough. But I wouldn't have wanted to see 1998 Frank Sinatra. No, he was 82. Right. And just breathing out Marlboro Reds at that point. So

the nostalgia act can be fun. But you're right. At some point you need to know. And even with Fleetwood Mac, at some point it's time. It's cool when Stevie pops out and has these rubber things. Yeah, she showed up at the Harry Styles show like it's at some point it's time it's cool when stevie pops out and and yeah she's running things yeah she showed up at the harry styles show and comes out and they did landslide great that's awesome well the flip side of this was your favorite moment of 2022 the random

joni mitchell comeback i love the random joni mitchell comeback but joni mitchell's 79 and but she was fucking awesome when she sang it was like what the hell what's happening she was great she migrated her voice lower and it's a different thing but jody mitchell is an artist not really a star right so she yeah she sort of figured out how to do it i by the way just here's the last point on christy mcvee everywhere has more streams than freaking landslide now maybe that's the che Chevy electric vehicle commercial and the value of a sink. By the way, Christy McPhee, no kids, no spouses.

Who's in the will? Oh, Jesus. Yeah, that's a lot. But if everywhere has more streams than landslide, that just tells you the enduring, very quiet, but massiveness of her catalog of work. Well, the other thing with Rumors, and it's eternally a top 10 album of all time, I think,

but a lot of the ones in the top 10 are always the greatest hits albums, right? Yeah. Eagles. Yeah, and all that stuff. That's just a flat out normal album. Yeah, it's Michael Jackson, Thriller, I guess. Black, fine. Dark Side of the Moon. But Eagles, I guess. It's Back in Black, fine. Dark Side of the Moon. But Eagles' greatest hits, Hotel California,

Shania Twain, Come on Over, and it's Rumors. That's the list. Oh, so I'm wrong. It's less greatest hits and it's more... Shania Twain is in the top 10 all time.

Isn't that insane? What album? Come on Over. I'm absolutely stupefied by that. Yeah. She is massive. Yeah. She is massive.

Hmm. All right. We did it. I still kind of feel like we should do some sort of rumors deep dive thing.

Maybe we should just do it on our own and never release it. It'll be like when, uh, it'll be like any Saturday when we

get together. Yeah. Yeah. We'll just turn the microphone on. You can get a bottle of wine. Nathan Hubbard, are you excited to buy the Washington Commanders? No.

I heard you're putting together a group. Why would you do this? Jeff Bezos. Come on, Jeffrey. You can do it. Put your back into it. Oh, my God. Can you imagine?

You go in. It would be like going to Whole Foods. You go in. You just flash your Amazon code, you buy your jersey and you Amazon code again, you get 20 cents off a hot dog. It'd be great.

Every tech executive is going to own a sports team before this is all said and done. Well, you know why? Because tech executives aren't cool. Zuckerberg's going to buy the Steelers. Buying a sports team instantly makes you cool.

You think Joe Lakob was that cool before he owned the Warriors? No, it's not. He's the rich guy. It's why the Warriors are so valuable, because the courtsides go for more than anywhere, because all the nerds want to be on TV and be associated with something. Yeah. Like yesterday, the Celtics owner, Wick Grosbeck,

him and his wife are sitting next to Harry and Kate, or William and Kate. No, it was William and and his wife were sitting next to Harry and Kate or William and Kate. Which way? No, it was William and Kate. I hope it wasn't Harry and Kate. Maybe it was rumors. It was rumors. William and Kate. Yeah.

And they would just, Jason Tatum would score and then they would cut to William and Kate politely clapping like they were at Wimbledon. But yeah, Wick Grosbeck's not sitting next to William if he doesn't own the fucking Celtics. So that's why we'll get more tech people owning sports teams. I'm all in.

Nathan, good to see you. Thanks, Bill. All right, thanks to Schrager and Solak and Nathan Hubbard. Thanks to Kyle Creighton as well for producing. I'll see you on this feed on Sunday. Go Holy Cross. the wayside I'm a bruised son never lost and I don't

have to ever forget