The Bill Simmons Podcast - Dork Elvis to Philly, Shorting the Pats, Masters Odds, and 2020 Election Guesses With Joe House, Bakari Sellers, and Harry Enten

Episode Date: October 30, 2020

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss Daryl Morey becoming the new president of basketball operations for the 76ers, how he'll pair with new head coach Doc Rivers, and trade speculations (2:00) before talking gambling odds for the upcoming Masters Tournament and Bill's Million Dollar Picks for NFL Week 8 (28:00). Then Bill talks with CNN's Bakari Sellers and Harry Enten about the upcoming elections (1:13:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, Daryl Morey to the Sixers, Masters, 2020 odds, million-dollar picks, and a deep dive into the election. I can't do better than that. It's all coming up. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest-rated sportsbook is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million-dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like

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on the Rewatchables feed. And if you love all the Rewatchables pods, you can find every single one of them on Spotify. The entire library is only available on Spotify. Coming up, Joe Haston and I are going to talk basketball, Masters, Million Dollar Picks, and then Bacar Sellers and Harry Enten from CNN. We're going to talk about the election. So first, Pearl Jam. All right. He hasn't been on in a while because he's been busy with us. He's hosting Fairway Rolling, our golf podcast, and he's also hosting on Fridays an excellent podcast with Warren Sharp on the Ringer NFL show that is breaking down the gambling trends heading into every weekend.

So you can listen to House twice. You can listen to him here. Also listen to him with Sharp. And I feel like your football betting is getting better. I feel like sharp has made you raise it a notch. And I, I don't feel like you're a full-fledged moron anymore with gambling. And now I feel like you're like an occasional moron. Thank you for that. I accept that. I think that is progress. I will say two things have happened since starting the podcast with Warren sharp this year in the first

place. And this was bad for me at the beginning of the season. I bet so many more games on so many different angles than I ever have in my entire life because of the natural curiosity, the conversations I'm having with Warren, let's try this theory out. And you know, in a one-off moment, you're, you're more likely to lose than to win. And I was doing a lot of that. There were lots of L's on that, that betting dance card, but a lot of experimentation. That's it. I mean, you know, Kyle was just telling me about his experience with the Patriots this year. It feels like BDSM. And I told Kyle, he didn't have to, you know, go deep with me about, about his BDSM experimentation, but I was doing the same kind of thing with the betting card early this season.

I have kind of turned the corner. I had a nice winning weekend. It was a four digit art return on investment last week for me. It was a couple of parlays in there, a couple of teasers and the season is starting to make sense finally. That's the way I feel. I thought you were going to say you had BDSM experience rooting for the Washington professional football team for the 21st century because you have that too. Well, after what they just did to Dallas, I mean, that was an extraordinarily happy ending.

Yeah, that's true. All right, we're going to talk about football later. We're going to do million-dollar picks. Wanted to talk about Darryl Morey going to the Sixers first. There'd been rumblings about this. He leaves Houston. It's always suspicious when somebody leaves a very high paying, uh,

lucrative, safe job with seemingly nothing next. And I, I assumed he was going to do one of those SPACs like what Billy Bean's doing and just get some hedge fund dudes. Nope. He's taken over the Philadelphia 76ers. And there's been a lot written, a lot guessed about where this might go. First of all, I was happy for him as his friend. Unhappy as a Celtics fan. I don't want Daryl Moore in my division. That sucks. Second, real ramifications here with the league for these next five years, because they have two of the best 15 players in the NBA right now, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, two of the best 15, 16, whatever your list is, they're on it. And there's been this question about sustainability with those two guys. So

naturally everybody's mind jumps to which one of them's going, which one is Daryl going to trade? I'm going to give you my thoughts in a second on this. Cause I have specific clear thoughts on it, but what was your take when you heard about the Daryl news? Well, in the first place, I wasn't surprised at all to hear that he was moving on. You mentioned in the setup to this, that you thought that his job in Houston was safe. I didn't think that at all. I mean, between the China thing. Well, his contract was safe, I guess I should say. Okay. It was guaranteed.

All right. Safe means guaranteed. His money was safe. Yeah. The bank was safe. The wallet was safe. The standing with the league and with homeboy Furtada was not good. I'm going to call him Furtada.

I like it. I call him that, too. It's too's too complicated plus he probably hates it right right and based on some of the stories that came out about some of the constraints that daryl was operating within in terms of budget and salary cap stuff i'm sure that he was thinking about a next stop a potential option for him this sixers thing really opened up quite beautifully for him. I mean, talk about winners and losers from the bubble experience. The Sixers flame out, which was eminently predictable, even in the absence of the injuries,

really created this dynamic within the organization for them to want to hit the reset button. And they have done so in pretty dramatic ways. I'm excited for Darryl. Well, they hired Doc before Darryl. Doc and Darryl worked together in Boston when Darryl was a young, precocious advanced metrics guy during an era where most people in the NBA didn't know what advanced metrics were. My memory of this relationship was that Doc was not a huge fan of the numbers. So now we fast forward 13, 14 years later, Doc gets fired from the Clippers. Doc got fired, regardless of what the article said.

Doc got canned and paid off to leave. One of the reasons was because of the advanced metrics thing. And the Clippers had this super expensive, you know, this big front office. They have this guy, Winger, who's probably the most expensive advanced metrics guy in the league. They're showing Doc all these numbers. Hey, when you play Harrell against Jokic,

it's a disaster. They're like, their offensive rating's like 140. Don't do that. And hey, Lou Williams in the playoffs is just awful. Don't play him as much. And he's just not listening. He's like, I know my guys. He gets fired.

Now he's with Darrell, who, you know, is kind of, was the Lewis and Clark of this genre. So I'm watching out for that. But where my mind drifted, because everyone's like, who is he trading? Here's the thing about Darryl. And I've known him for 15 years. He has always been the same.

And we've talked about this on podcasts. He's a two-star guy. His goal was always to have two stars. So he starts with the Rockets. One of the reasons he goes there, they have Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and they have a nice little run with those guys.

Then Yao breaks down, Tracy breaks down. Now they have no stars. Goes all in on Harden. He's got another star. All right, I got to get him a second star. Who does he got?

Gets Dwight Howard. Gives Dwight Howard a huge free agent contract. Now I got Dwight Howard. Doesn't quite work out. They get to the second star. Who does he go? He gets Dwight Howard. Gives Dwight Howard a huge free agent contract. Now I got Dwight Howard. Doesn't quite work out. They get to the conference finals. Noble experiment. Dwight hits a different point of his career. Now he's back to one star. What does he do? Goes to get Chris Paul. Now I've got my

second star again. Gets two years out of that. Then the Fertittas, dumb and dumber, end up convincing him to make the Westbrook trade, which I think now we know that wasn't Darryl's trade, but it was the same two-star system. So my default with this Philly thing,

sorry for the long-winded explanation. He's going to have two stars. If he's trading one of those two guys, he's getting a star back. He's not going to go from two stars to one. He's not making the three quarters for a dollar trade or even two 50 cent pieces for a dollar. That's not how he rolls. He wants the two stars because then he feels like he's one of the best people in the league from a front office standpoint and finding the peripheral guys to put around the two stars.

So my question for you, House, will these be the two stars? Or is he going to flip one of them for another star? What is more likely to you? Well, that's obviously the question on the tip of everybody's tongue because the stat that made all the rounds immediately after news of this broke, Woj dropped one of his Woj bombs on Wednesday, was how many trades Daryl has made. And, you know, that he is a frequent dabbler and very committed to trying to put his franchise in the very best position.

I want to do very quickly a quick bit of sympathy for Doc and whatever he ran into in terms of the analytics with the Clippers. Wow, a Doc defense. Wasn't expecting this. Just a quick bit of sympathy. Paul George was fucking terrible. Like, he was atrocious.

And if I don't know what the advanced analytics suggested about the likelihood of success of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard in a non-bubble circumstance, because I'm sure that the Clippers had a thesis for why that combination might work, but they didn't run a downside scenario, a bubble scenario, where Paul George was going to show up with a gigantic pitchfork and try and stab all his teammates in their in their butts running around. I mean, he was so he hit the side of the backboard. That is

the Clippers meme for the entire playoff experience. And it demeaned and diminished the Clippers standing. And they have a problem that they have to try and solve now going forward. So I'm on Doc's side in terms of, you know, this, you're on Doc's side. This is great. It sounds like you want a job with Philly.

Oh, I would, are you kidding me? I'm going to text with Daryl. Yeah, I would, nothing would make me happier than maybe I'll hire drunk house as his player personnel.

I'm sure that would be really helpful to them. Um, but in terms of, of what to anticipate out of Daryl, I think it, this very first year, I anticipate nothing in terms of those two guys. I think Embiid and Simmons are going to be there. He is going to let Doc do his thing. He'll have suggestions. I think the really interesting thing is who he will put around those guys this season. I think the two huge needs to me for Philly are point guard and somebody that

can make a gosh darn three pointer. And there's a point guard out there that Daryl has some experience with, has a nice track record with, and there are odds up today on where this player will land. And Philly was not on the list and I couldn't believe it. Chris Paul. Because his salary is too high. Well, they could work it out. Like, how about this? If you're going to go all in, if you're Josh Harris, co-founder of Apollo.

They have no picks. Doesn't matter. Make it work. Come up with, spend the money. Spend the money. Do you want to try and put You sound like Bernie Sanders.

Like, there's pie in the sky. No, no. Just spend the money. It'll happen. It's not pie in the sky. No, no. Just spend the money. It'll happen. It's not pie in the sky. They're really limited. Really, the only trade pieces they have are Josh Richardson is like 10 million a year, Thibel, and like future first round picks.

Because other than that, OKC is not. You're talking about Chris Paul. OKC is not taking Horford back. And they're not taking Tobias Harris back. Isn't it? Because Chris is smart. He doesn't want Horford. Horford're not taking Tobias Harris back. Isn't it? Cause Chris is smart. He doesn't want, he doesn't want Horford.

Horford has less years than Chris Paul at this point. Doesn't he? Like there's some, some advantage. Cause Paul is too. Horford has two plus a payout for the four, for the fourth season. Well,

I, I tough one. There is there. I just think that there are ways of finding teams that could use those players. I mean, I, I trust there's a little bit of finding teams that could use those players. I mean, I trust there's a little bit of a blind faith sort of element to the idea. How about Horford for Hayward? Now Boston says no.

I mean, why? After Horford's season last year, which if you're trading for him, you would talk yourself into he's playing out of position. It was weird. It was a weird season. Coaching thing was weird. Everything was wrong. There's still some real statistical science

that he has hit a different phase of his career. Like he's not rebounding the same way. He doesn't block shots the same way. I was mainly joking. There was no really defensible case for Horford. Was it a joke for Philly fans? You're talking about trading Horford and Harris.

Like, their ears perk up. That's true. I mean, the most fun trade on the planet that the most fun NBA trade we can make right now for any team is just Embiid for a hard

and straight up. It's just so wonderful in so many different ways. I mean, they'd have Philly would have to throw in another salary to make it work, but it gives Embiid his own team in Houston. Harden straight up. It's just so wonderful in so many different ways. I mean, they'd have Philly, you'd have to throw in another salary to make it work, but it gives him beat his own team in Houston with Westbrook, which is just a bizarre combo. It would be riveting to watch. I don't even know how that would play out. And then from the Philly side, you, you, now you've solved, how do I play all these bigger guys together? You have a closer.

There's a weird Ben Simmons dynamic that probably doesn't work out, which is probably maybe why they don't do it, but it just would be so riveting to watch. It can still happen. It just might happen a year from now or several months from now. I think the first thing that Philly needs to do is do a little bit of rehabilitation with Joel Embiid. Let's really push his value up by having him go through.

I don't know how long this off season is going to be. It seems like it's only going to be, it's going to be short days or so, but like, hopefully they're with him right now and a nutritionist and a dietitian and a cardio machine or several cardio machines and a swimming pool. And we're going to see Joel Embiid arrive in the best shape of his life. We heard this conversation every year.

Every year. It's not happening. Why can't it happen? Buy him a crowd chamber. That won't work either. He's like 28. He's going to get in shape this year? The other way to do it is to let him use the regular season to get in shape and minute and watch minutes and try and

just get him you know prepared for the for the playoff run but when when are we going to see the joella and bead in shape the the franchise on the previous iteration and administration was not in a position to you know impose any kind of institutional controls around him. I don't know why they couldn't convince him to get in shape, but maybe Doc and Daryl can convince him to get in shape. So Doc can,

you would think, build the relationship up between Embiid and Simmons. You would think? I say that as you would think because... Ubuntu? how do you say it? Well, here's the thing. Can't say the Clippers had awesome chemistry,

really dating back to the Chris Paul thing. And at some point that Clippers team, the chemistry was really bad. The last couple of years, they were with Blake and CP and all those dudes. And I was going to the game. I was talking about it when I was doing TV and then they would get mad at me. And the Clipper said, why are you saying that? Why are you saying Chris and Blake are don't get along? Cause I'm to the game. I was talking about it when I was doing TV and then they would get mad at me. And the Clippers said,

why are you saying that? Why are you saying Chris and Blake don't get along? Because I'm at the game watching them interact. So then that happens. And then last year is another chemistry disaster with a whole new bunch of Clippers. Well, you can't say that last year is an indication one way or the other of any chemistry experiment.

He coached the team. Because it was a hundred year pandemic that, that they were, that we were dealing with. I think their chemistry was a little goofy before the pandemic. They were really up and down and everyone's making excuses like, ah, they,

these guys, they just can't find a rhythm. They haven't played enough games together. That's all true. They had barely played 10 games together. And they were doing Miami. Miami made the finals. They hadn't played together. I don all true. They had barely played 10 games together. And they were gearing up for the playoffs. Miami made the finals. They hadn't played together. I don't know. I think Doc

gets a little bit of a free ride for this stuff. At the same time, I think he's a really good coach. But I think he's a good coach when the situation is a good situation. This is a good situation. This is a good situation. We hope. I think it is. I think it's an attractive job.

You and I have no idea of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons can be the two best players on a finals team. But I want to see it. I want to see it play out. I don't feel like I'm satisfied with the evidence we have, right?

You feel the same way. We have no evidence. We have just disappointing evidence. The Toronto series. The Toronto series is decent evidence. Good evidence. It's like the ball bounces around. If they go to overtime, who knows?

Maybe they make the finals. Yeah. So anyway, I'm watching. I think you're right. I think your instincts are right. I think he tries to fill in the fringes with the stuff he's really good at, finding these Danielle House and...

Shane Battier. Well, Shane Battier is the best example, but even like the Ben McLemore. Yeah, reclamation project. All the role guys or somebody like PJ Tucker who is bouncing around, never really found the right team. Darryl's really good at finding those guys.

And another thing that he loves to do, sorry to give away all his secrets. By the way, these aren't secrets he told me. I've just, I've been following him for 15 years. He loves betting on failed high lottery picks or high lottery picks who never hit their potential,

but maybe it wasn't their fault. Like Darryl traded for Hashim Thabit. He traded for Johnny Flynn. I think he might've had Darko. Don't quote me on that, but he's over and over. He rolled the dice with guys drafted in the top seven because the thinking is like,

maybe it's a change of scenery will make it work. Are you saying here on the BS podcast that Markel Fultz is going back to the 60s? Are you, is that what you're saying right here right now? Not saying that. No, is he? Cause I here, right now? No, I'm not saying that. No, is he? Because, I mean, I could see it. I could see it.

Well, my question with Darryl, he's... So they create a team in the 07-08, that really nice Rockets team, right? That was built around Yao and Tracy, and then Yao couldn't stay healthy. But that was like an old-school, traditional type of team. Then they build this hardened team that eventually becomes what that team became,

which was threes and free throws. I don't think necessarily Darryl, that's his mantra, is like, here's how to play basketball, threes and free throws. I think he tries to pick whatever the right system is for the players he have. And this is something like, not to compare it to Pat Riley, but one of the reasons Pat Riley is so interesting is he's Showtime Lakers and then goes and does

this Ewing 90s Knicks thing. And it's a completely different style. And then in Miami, you end up blending the two things. I'd be really interested to see Darryl put together a contender that's not the threes and free throws model. And it's actually more of an old school model that uses these two guys who I think we both think are pretty special they're just weird they're unique players well to be fair one of the things that is part of daryl's uh model that got you know kind of forgotten is he loves shots around the rim he likes high percentage shots and he has two guys who are super capable of high percentage shots if they can come up with a system to put them in the very best position. If we can see Joel Embiid inside of eight feet around the basket, if we can see Ben Simmons playing some power forward that the Sixers flirted with and that they claim they might unleash in the bubble.

And then we saw absolutely none of it. Then he got hurt. I mean, he has those pieces in place to fit the model that, that he likes. I mean, let's, let's see these guys, um,

in the, in the best, uh, possible situation they can be in to maximize those, those talents. What's your Washington GM. What's his name? Uh,

hold on. Tommy Shepard. That's Tommy. It's Tommy Shepard. Of course it's Tommy. Former above the rim star, Tommy Shepard? It's Tommy Shepard. Of course it's Tommy Shepard. Former above the rim star, Tommy Shepard. Went from playing outside without a ball to running the Wizards. All right, you're going to be Tommy Shepard. I'm going to be Daryl.

Tommy, it's Daryl. How are you? What up, D? Hey, look, man. I'm just going to cut to the chase. Let's talk about a deal with Ben Simmons and Bradley Beal in it. What are your thoughts? Okay. What do you have in mind? I feel like you have to throw in a tiny bit more. Maybe like I get a pick swap in 23, something like that. I think Ben Simmons, he's younger. He's got a longer contract.

You can build your team around him. Maybe like a 23 top two protected pick swap and we'll just call it into the league. No chance. I'm not doing that. Bradley Beal is better than and more valuable than Ben Simmons right now at this moment. He's certainly more durable.

He's four years older, too. He's demonstrated the ability to lead a team. He almost led the league in scoring this year, and he took our franchise, our Washington franchise, and made it semi-interesting for about 15 games in an otherwise dead season. Semi-interesting to who? People in a coma? The 10 people who attended those Washington basketball games.

No, you know what? They were fun to watch. You forget already because it feels like 10 lifetimes ago. They had these incredible scoring games. There was no defense whatsoever. All right, Tommy, stop selling me on the Wizards. Enough. All right, straight up.

Forget the pick swap. Ben Simmons for Beal. We'll call it in right now. It's a great deal. Let's do it. I would do that in a heartbeat. I think that's a great trade. I have no inside info, by the way.

Don't aggregators. Don't aggregate this and say, blah, blah, blah. I'm making this up on the spot. I just think that's, I want to see Ben Simmons. I care more about the Simmons piece than the Embiid piece on that team. I just want to see Simmons run a team. I want to see him in a team with an offense built around him and all the things he's good at, do his thing. I think it'd be fun if he just, like,

he takes over the Wizards and just kind of does his thing. And then if you're Philly, you've solved that weird Simmons-Embiid thing that nobody really could figure out what to do with. Now you have a real perimeter guy. Now Daryl can work his magic and try to patch together the point guard position. And now I'm in, if I'm beat shows up in shape, now I can think about a title. The problem for Washington is John Wall. They have a John Wall problem. Yeah. You have to figure out how giving the team to Ben Simmons, uh, which I think is absolutely the right move without hesitation

or reservation. But what do you do with wall? Is he on board with it? Is he going to be supportive and you just have to run out his contract unless the new collective bargaining agreement, whenever that comes around, offers a new amnesty clause and you can get rid of them. I mean, those are your options. Here's the great thing though. And this is where the wizards can hire you as a consultant. You've had decades and decades of experience of being stuck with a team that didn't know what to do

with somebody on an expensive contract that had a couple of years to go. Think about it. You could fucking teach a class on this at this point. You could do a master's class in Georgetown. Running out the last three years of somebody's horrific contract. Hey, guys,

today we're going to talk about Gilbert Arenas. And, yeah. On this podcast, two years ago, 2017, I posited that the Wizards in that moment should have stretched John Wall under the stretch provisions of the collective bargaining agreement. And Kevin O'Connor actually helped me, you know, send a graphic out that showed it. I mean, it was clear.

It was apparent then that the most important player on the team was Bradley Beal. That hasn't changed in two years. And so, you know, if we get Ben Simmons some young blood, and by the way, the reason he's so attractive, that dude plays defense. I bet on him to win defensive player of the year, and he was in the conversation.

He finished top five. Couldn't agree more. He actually gives a shit. He sure does. I'm not sure 100% what he is yet, but I think he plays hard, but I think he plays hard and I think he needs... I would just build an entire team around the stuff he's good at.

Anyway, I can't wait to see what Daryl does. I hope it doesn't conflict with my Celtics in any way. Your team? Yeah. But this is a story that makes the NBA more fun.

We have Doc and Daryl. We have possibilities of all bunch of trades. You have all the Philly fans. The process is kind of weirdly alive now. Daryl comes in to extend the process. And we have the frittatas in Houston. And now they're like, oh, we'll show Daryl.

We're smarter than that guy, even though we got into basketball 18 months ago. And we get to watch that when James Harden, even though we got into basketball 18 months ago. And, and we get to watch that when James Harden, that, that is going to end unhappily. That is good. I just can't believe,

uh, how, how dark it was for Philly really like just a month ago with their basketball team and their football team. And now their football team is going to win the NFC East and their basketball team is, is not just a relevant, super interesting, super exciting. And, you know, I think, uh, in the running to finish top four in

the, in the East. Well, and brand who is in just an incredibly nice guy by all accounts. And I feel bad criticizing him anyway, but the, the last two years that he put together is borderline iconic. You could not do Tobias Harris. You just can't make that mistake. It's fatal. I feel like even Ernie Grunfeld would have cringed a couple of times at those moves. That's a Grunfeld move if there ever was one. Oh, overpaying Tobias Harris?

Yeah. Ernie's like, he sends out the text. Congrats. Congrats, man. You locked him. You locked him down. Five years, 180. You did it. All right. We're going to take a break and talk masters and million dollar picks. This episode is brought to you by Movember.

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your adventures will be many. Pennzoil, long may we drive. Available at your local Canadian tire. Enrollment required. Keep your receipts. Other conditions apply. See Pennzoil.ca slash warranty for full details. All right, quickly before we get to million dollar picks, the Mastas. Let's talk about it it the commercials are out this week oh yeah do you think the commercial should be used as an erectile dysfunction drug because i do feel the blood surge to my groin every time i see a master's edge i mean whether they're intended for that use or not that's what happens they're very effective masters that music the green color i am i am at attention i you have my attention uh in all parts of my body so a couple subplots and you've been covering

this i'm fairly wrong but el tigre does not have it this year we doesn't we can cross them off yeah feels like cross off the best you can hope for with him is make the cut. Brooks, we're not convinced he's 100% healthy, or do we feel like he's getting healthier? You guys see a little Brooks momentum. Little Brooks, there's a tiny bit of value. He's available in some places still around like 17 to 1, 18 to 1. Oh, that's ridiculous.

No way. I thought I saw that earlier. No, he's like in the 14-15 round. Well, let's just go to... It's fine. I'm just going to read all the odds. We'll do this quickly. Okay. Beefy Bryson is your six to one favorite. That's absurd. That's outrageous. I think it's

more fun to bet him to miss the cut than to bet on him. His best Masters finish was as an amateur in 2015 where he finished tied for 21st. Now, it is a new Bryson, completely reinvented Bryson. A new Bryson. His last two majors

have been the very best performances in majors in his entire career. And, you know, all that weight and all that hitting power. I just don't think the golf gods at Augusta in particular are going to reward all that. I'm going to bet him to miss the cut because I think the odds are going to

be good for that. My bad. He on FanDuel Sportsbook. He's plus 750 now. Yeah. Seven and a half. That's still too low. He shouldn't be under 10.

Horrendous. Horrendous odds. Our guy, John Rahm, the Rominator. Yeah. Good year for him. Yes.

I don't know if he's the golf MVP of 2020. Cause I think Bryson's kind of running away with that. But John Rahm, the Rahminator. Yeah. Good year for him. Yes. I don't know if he's the golf MVP of 2020 because I think Bryson's kind of running away with that. But John Rahm is, he got invited to the table at the terrible award ceremony hosted by Sinbad.

The what? What is, why does he, the what, the what award ceremony? The golf awards. Like if they did like that dumb NBA award show,

they had the golf awards. So they had cocktail tables and maybe not sin bad. Maybe it's somebody a lot whiter. I don't know who it is. Kevin Pollock. Um, Rob's at 11 to one. Still.

I don't feel like I'm getting value with that. I don't feel like I'm getting value with Rory at 11 to one either, but it is funny. The hierarchy now of golf. Cause the masters, I think is the best way to see like, Oh, who, who do people think are the best five golfers in golf? So Bryson plus seven, seven 50 Rom 11, one Rory, 11, one DJs, 12 to one. And Justin Thomas is 12 to one. Usually Brooks would be in there, but I think cause of the health thing, he's a little

bit out, but that's the top five. If I asked you to rattle that off, you would have guessed those five. Yeah, sure. Of course. And we are paying attention to these odds. I think there is a tiny bit of value on DJ. And I'll tell you why. He loves the Masters. He plays the Masters

great. The last five years since 2015, DJ at the Masters, he's finished tied for six, tied for fourth, tied for 10th and tied for second. The only time in those five years that he didn't play was in 2017. I think it was because he felt he, he allegedly slipped and hurt his back. We don't know what happened. He was at the height of his golfing powers. Speaking of being at the height of his golfing powers, he had an extraordinary fall. He absolutely annihilated everybody this fall in the FedEx Cup. And he went to Eastlake and just brought home 15 million sweet dollars to sweet Paulina.

He has a COVID positive diagnosis that he is recovering from right now. And so he hasn't been in the headlines. But, you know, if he's i'm out i don't like the post-covid athlete performance i understand that a storyline in 2020 but here's the thing in golf it's different because i i understand i know exactly where you're coming from on this um and cam newton has not been the same but you know who did have, in golf, a very good performance after two weeks off? Tony Finau. Tony Finau took two weeks off for COVID.

He doesn't count. He broke his ankle and continued to play the Masters. But you know who else is a great athlete like Tony Finau is DJ. So if you get DJ at 12-1 and Bryson's sitting there at 7.5-1, that's dumb, right? Those odds should be flipped. DJ at 12-1, tiny bit of value at 7.5-1, that's dumb, right? Those odds should be flipped. DJ at 12-1, tiny bit of value. That's all I'm saying.

JT is 12-1. Shoffley is 14-1. Shoffley, really? Getting a lot of respect for these odds. Because a lot of people are on him because he finished tied second last year at the Masters. He has all these top five and top 10 finishes in majors. The question with him is whether or not he can jump, uh, across the goal line.

Cause he hasn't been able to do it, but certainly a top 10 play, you'll get some decent odds on that and betting him for that. It's good. It sounds like he should be a starter for the Tampa Bay race. He could just throw a solid six innings and then look around as soon as he gives up a line drive, single five and a half innings.

I don't know if his caddy's going to pull him out. I don't know. I'm just going to tell you, if that had been the Red Sox and we hadn't won a World Series yet, I would have reacted the same way I reacted after the Grady Little Pedro game, which was I was so upset that the next day I had to leave. I was working for Kimmel Show.

I had to leave Kimmel Show early. I had to go home early. I was so upset. I literally couldn't function. Brooks Koepka is 18 to 1 on this list. That's what I like. That's nice. That's an interesting value, yes. Plus you get to root for Brooks

Koepka. That's right. Cantlay is 20 to 1. And then it jumps. I saw Cantlay at like 25 to 1. 20 to 1 on FanDuel. I think he's available right this second at 25 to 1. He's a guy that went on Fandle. Okay. I think I've seen he's he's available right this second at 25 to one.

He's worth a little sprinkle. He's another guy that's been around the hoop in majors. This since the restart, he hadn't been very good. Then he just strung four

rounds together. Very nice rounds right in your backyard at Sherwood Country Club. He won there, beat both John Rahm and Justin Thomas who were breathing down his neck. He held them off. He won there, beat both John Rahm and Justin Thomas, who were breathing down his neck. He held them off. He had the lead last year at the Masters Sunday back nine.

He finished tied for ninth because he fell apart on the 17th and 18th holes, but can't lay a 25 to one little value. Definitely a guy who could slip on the green jacket. Okay. I'm going to just read off names and stop me when you get excited. Bubba Watson, 27 to one. I'm actually excited. Bubba's another guy who's been playing very well. A lot of the advanced analytics in golf, his ball striking has been excellent. And one thing about Bubba that, that, um, is worth sharing. He tends to do well at places that he's comfortable with. He's a repeat winner at a that he's comfortable with he's a repeat winner at a lot of venues he's already a repeat winner at the masters that's a guy that's going to get

a top 10 bet for me and a top 20 bet and at that 27 to 1 that's worth 50 bucks for sure bubba watson can win the masters again morikawa is 27 to 1 um the stat that everybody two majors in the same year seems unrealistic first first Masters the last time this is a stat

that everybody's gonna say Fuzzy Zeller's the last guy in 1970 whatever it was to win the Masters in his first try so not on that precedent

no no from Morikawa Fuzzy Fried Chicken Zeller that's him that's the guy tough one tough one tough one to live down I think thatawa. Fuzzy Fried Chicken Zeller? That's him. That's the guy. Tough one. Tough one to live down. I think that, fortunately for Fuzzy, would have been

a much bigger and worse deal for him now, but still. It's the first thing I think of when I hear his name. Man, so brutal. That was brutal. My God, Fuzzy Zeller. Also, Golden Barret. Look, I feel like everybody over 80 should be taken with a grain of salt.

But the Golden Bear, what's going on? He didn't need to have somebody write a Twitter post for him and then put that up. It just wasn't necessary. It was unnecessary. That's the perfect way to say it. That's all. Unnecessary. Come on, Golden Bear.

Patrick Reed, 27-1. Tiger. I saw him at higher odds But still Patrick Reed won the Masters Why do you keep insulting Fandle? These are their odds Take it up with Fandle I will take it up with Fandle

Tigers 27-1 Stay away Hatton's 29-1 Webb Simpson 29-1 Matthew Wolfe 33-1

You know Two great performances In the majors By Matthew Wolfe Again You don't know How a guy His age Wolf, 33 to one, you know, two great performances in the majors by Matthew Wolf. Uh, again, you don't know, um, how a guy, his age, his level of experience, how he's going to react to Augusta the first time. The interesting thing with a guy like Matthew Wolf though, is he'll be experiencing it without fans.

So it could be an entirely different dynamic, right? None of those roars, those back nine roars that really intimidate guys have that effect. It's not crazy that a young guy might come up and do it. That's the reason that Morikawa might be interesting as well. Has Wolf earned a house nickname from you yet? It's just Wolfie.

Matty Wolf. He's just Wolfie. Alright, everybody else. Finau is also 33-1. Everyone else is 37 to one or higher. I'm just going to rip off names. Stop me if you get excited. Matsuyama. Fleetwood.

Spieth. Adam Scott. Jason Day. Justin Rose. Oosthuizen. Oosthuizen. What number is Oosthuizen available at? He's available at 50 to one.

There's a teeny bit of value there. He's been playing pretty damn good. You know what we call that value? You call it the Dick T's value. It's a little... We have him at 50 to 1, and he's down 1 on the 15th, and then, you know, bogeys. Well, that's why you bet him...

Fuck you, Louie! You bet him top 5 and top 10 to cover off on the 50 to 1 so you don't feel like a chump. That's an easy on Usti. Easy on Usti. Paul Casey, Ricky Fowler, Scotty Scheffler, Sergio Garcia, Shane Scottie Scheffler. Also, what's Scheffler 50 to one? Yeah.

Tiny, tiny play on that tiny Mickelson 65 to one. I'm getting Phil Mickelson to miss the cut. I'm sorry. I there's no evidence that he can compete against these young guys anymore um he played in a no-cut event last week and finished either fourth from last or third from last uh and miraculously the sportsbook offered a head-to-head where he was he was a quite a bit of an underdog but but who cares? I paid minus $240 or $250 to play Abraham Anser straight up against Phil Mickelson,

and I wish I'd called you and borrowed some extraordinary large amount of money because I could only do what I had, which was my mortgage, and I don't have a Bill Simmons mortgage. Correct. Yeah, and man, oh man, it was, it was, he, Abraham Anser beat Phil Mickelson by 15 strokes. Oh my God. Yeah. So I accidentally skipped over Fleetwood and Spieth if you're excited.

Well, you said both those names and neither one. But they were lower than 50 to one. I didn't stop you. They were both in the 40 to one category. Jordan Spieth at all times is a times is worth a look at the Masters. It's a magical place for him. He has magical things. Okay.

All right. Fine. Stop. He's actually been playing better the last handful of weeks. He's played in these no cut events also and has some Sunday rounds that are like, feel like they might be showing a breakthrough. I don't know. If you want to be a Jordan Spieth truther,

there are some green shoots out there. Stop. Okay. Best narrative before we go, before we do million dollar picks. Best narrative, if you're just like, what would be the most fun thing for golf?

I hate saying this, but it might be Bryson winning the Masters. You beat me to it. I mean, I didn't know if you were going to ask me that. That is the answer. It would absolutely drive, you know, the golf world insane because, you know, part of the challenge since he's returned with all of this extra ball speed and length and everything is like this existential crisis confronting

golf. Oh my God, he hits the ball so far. How, how can we possibly, uh, constrain him or contain him? So that would be hilarious. But in, in terms of like the sporting public in general, here, here's a guy, you know, everybody loves the long ball, right? Like there is some resonance that would catch on with the general sporting public and seeing the masters sort of, you know, brought to, to, to its knees because of, of him hitting potentially 400 yard drives there. That's a narrative, right? That's an interesting story. Brooksy would also be a good story. I think I like Brooksy. That's my top two. All right. Taking a break, doing a million dollar picks. All right. Doing million dollar picks in one second.

Remember, we use the lines from FanDuel Sportsbook, who also has same game parlay. So many different combinations you can play. Player props, point totals, money lines. I'm always giddy just thinking about it. FanDuel will refund the first same game parlay you lose on any NFL game each week up to $10. That means you can bet a different parlay risk-free. Here is my pick. Now, they don't have the parlays out yet for Sunday where you can't mix the props yet. The props usually come about 24 hours before the game. I want you to look at that Philly game. I want you to look at the money line, which is probably

going to be like Philly minus 400, that kind of range. And I want you to look at that Philly game. I want you to look at the money line, which is probably going to be like Philly minus 400, that kind of range. And I want you to look at Philly defensive special teams touchdown, which will probably be in the plus 120 to plus 130 range. And if you add those together, it will get you over plus 200. Highly recommend that. And if you do it, I want you to go on FanDuel, which is the only sportsbook app which has

same game parlays. Use promo code BS so they know I sent you. And if you already have an account, you're good to go. Same game parlays, risk-free. Repeat, risk-free all season long for the NFL. Only on the FanDuel sportsbook app. Don't forget to use

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Terms apply. Gambling problem? 1-800-522-4700 in Colorado or 800 bets off in Iowa or 809 with it in Indiana. 800 GAMWARE in Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, or go to 1800gambler.net in West Virginia. Okay. Last week, I almost had a monster week. I almost

swept it except for long shot parlay. And then the bears decided throw water on my face and storm out of the restaurant. So I was up 540,000 last week. I'm positive now for the season up 144,000. I'm actually doing well this season because considering I've had, I've been on the bad side of pretty much all of these games that had the bad beats, except for the Browns last week. I pulled that one Baker Mayfield. Well, that was right out of your rear end. One thing that has worked for me is not doing teases and parlays. Okay. At least for million-dollar picks. So naturally,

I'm going to start with a teaser. It's time. It's time, Robbie. We have the Eagles minus eight and a half over a Dallas team that I think is just flat-out terrible and that is not an overreaction thing. They literally can't block.

They have terrible linebackers and they have Danucci at quarterback unless Andy Dalton can come back from a concussion. They're poorly coached. They're awful. They are a DVOA. They're 31st. Only the Jets are worse. Every sign says they're terrible. And then you have Philly who actually has a pass rush. They need the game. They have a chance to grab the division by the balls. They're only favored by eight and a half. So you tease it down

with a six-point tease, a straight upper. Move that to two and a half. They win by a field goal. You win. You're going to sweat out the Carson Wentz rollercoaster. He's just going to do it. Know that going in. He's going to throw a pick. He's going to have a fumble. He's going to hold the ball too long, It's sacked, but let's start there. Let's move the Eagles down to two and a half. Why, why am I not doing that? Yeah, this is the thing.

It's going to be the most popular teaser leg of the entire slate. I, that would be the only reason at all, um, to be concerned, you know know you want to go generally against the public when you can but this is one where i'm with you there is a reason that they're 31st in dvoa i just watched them against my home team and boy did i enjoy watching you beat the shit out of them they they're they're disgraceful i mean that's terrible that it's, it's an effort thing. It's a coaching thing. It's a concept thing. Obviously, Dalton, you know, you don't anticipate playing your backup come week six, week seven.

And, you know, them trying to figure out what to do. But, like, the Mike Nolan defense is unbelievable how bad they are scheme-wise and execution-wise. They can't tackle anybody, and they don't even try. I'm so happy right now that Dallas is so terrible. I listened to you and Cousin Sal on the Sunday night pod. I couldn't believe that you included Jacksonville in the bottom three teams and you put Jacksonville in the same breath as the Jets and the Cowboys. Thatboys. That's what we just crossed them off. Well, more of a cross off. Yeah. All right. Well, that's fine because Dallas is way worse. They're awful. And the,

the teas that you're describing, that's a great first leg. Let's get going with a million dollar picks. Yeah. I just think you have to look at it as look, Wentz is going to scare you in the first hour and a half of this tease. And you're going to feel real doubt in your bones. And maybe CeeDee Lamb gets an 80-yard touchdown, whatever. There will be a moment of doubt. But just Philly will somehow pull the game out. Hopefully not win by two and mess you up. There's an interesting bet on FanDuel.

Philly by 14 plus is plus 120. Just throwing that one. If it was plus, I want it closer to two to one. Okay. All right. So for the second piece of this Eagles tease, I narrowed it in on Tampa minus 12 against the Giants. And here's the case.

First of all, the DVOA split. We're now at the point where DVOA I think really matters. Yeah. Tampa's first, the Giants are 29th. So that's wonderful. So if we get the Tampa down to under a touchdown to minus six, I have as big of a disparity as I'm going to get with DVOA. The Giants' defense is terrible.

They've given up 50.5% on third down. They're one for seven on stops on fourth down. And then offensively, I think there's this feeling because Daniel Jones, he throws the ball. I don't know that people think the Giants offense can at least move the ball. The stats don't back it up. They're yards per attempt, 6.1. They have nine turnovers and they're 27th in the league and rushing. And to me, this is more a belief in Tampa, who I think is the most logical NFC Super Bowl pick right now. And the most complete team Godwin's out. Godwin's going to miss this game.

But even with that said, like they have the kind of defense that can extend leads. They're just a complete football team. And the thing is, if you're thinking this is a potential Superbowl contender, these are the games that you end up winning by 30 or you ain't, you know, 42 to 10, kind of what they did to the Raiders last week.

So teasing the Eagles down to an F and Tampa down to six, both of them have to cover who screws me on that. The Eagles. Well, let's tap the brakes for just one second because, and I don't know how you want to handle this. It's off the board right now. Oh, I'm aware. Because there was like some equipment manager COVID thing.

Yeah. Yeah. They'll play it. They've plowed through every time. Okay. Well, if you have the confidence that they're going to play it, because you don't want to just be out there, you know, have this wonderful tease, uh, backup. I'll do a backup team. Yeah. That's all I'm suggesting. Um, yeah, the, the, there, there's no argument with any aspect of what you just described. I think, you know, power ranking wise, there's a very defensible case to have Tampa at the very tippy top. And I just want to know, how does that make you feel? I mean,

you and the cause talk about it a little bit. Like I'm fine. Okay. The Mookie Betts thing hurts way, way, way, way, way more.

Well, that's because we traded that guy as he was hitting his prime. Yeah. He's 43. It's like, it was going to end this year. Next year. It's we already got six Superbowls out of them.

And our team's terrible with or without him. It's not like he's going to make a difference with this Patriots team. We can move on quickly because Tampa, less than a touchdown, and that's what you've done. You've crossed one of the magic numbers to get it down under seven, which is important. That's good value. You're fine. I like that a lot.

One of the lessons we've learned from the podcast you're doing with Sharp, because one thing you and I love to do is have an anchor team. This week, we'd be like, I love the Eagles. I'm going to tease them with four teams. And I'll go three in one or I'll sweep the bets. And Sharp is like, don't rely on one team. Be diverse. Rely on a whole bunch of different bets. So I'm trying to stick to that because I think it's good advice. So normally I'd put the Eagles in two other teases, but I'm not going to do that this time. Next bet I'm looking at. Bills going to bring this line down to minus three against the Patriots. So it's minus 130. If you pay 130 to win 100. Bills 14th DVOA, Pat's 26th. Bill's defense, secretly, not that good. Yeah. They've given up over 50% on third downs. Yes.

They've also, they're 52.4 for their offense at third downs. The Pat's offense, it cannot be overstated how bad they are. If you remove this Seattle game, it's probably the worst offense in the league. Just for the year, even including the Seattle game, 39% on third down. They're 28th in the league. Just for the year, even including the Seattle game, 39% on third down, their 28th in pass yards, their quarterbacks have thrown three touchdowns, 11 interceptions. Their quarterbacks have a 65% passer rating, and they've been able to run the ball a little bit,

but that doesn't matter once you fall behind by 10. And I think this line should be at least seven. God bless the Pats. God bless Belichick. God bless the six Super Bowls. The talent is not there as I laid out on Sunday's pod. And we see this every year with the team. It takes everybody four extra weeks to kind of admit that the once great contender, whoever, it's just dead. It's gone. It's over. And we saw it with Dallas this year too. They haven't covered yet. They're 0- seven. Even this Eagles line should be Eagles by 10. People won't give up on Dallas. I just think the line's too low and getting it to minus three. So I don't have to worry about the hook. Uh, makes a lot of sense to me. What do you think? There isn't a big track record of betting against Bill Belichick and having success. And I know how bad the New England has looked.

And I know that you are studying them assiduously, that you're on every aspect of what New England is bringing to the plate. The thing that concerns me is we saw Cam Newton at the height of his powers just four weeks ago. And then he had COVID and he hasn't been the same guy. at the height of his powers just four weeks ago. And then he had COVID and he hasn't been the same guy. But what if this is the week that he is that guy again? That's what concerns me. Guess what that means.

That means the Patriots won. So I win either way. Great. Okay. All right. Next bet. We're moving on. Moving on.

I can't lose with this one. I did not see a single sign from Cam Newton last week that he's going to be good this week. Okay. But I would love like on Saturday, if somebody writes some piece about, man, Cam Newton looked great this week. I'd be like, oh, cool.

Next one, Raiders-Browns. You talked me into this. Initially, I was leaning toward the Browns and you were passionate about the Raiders. There's some good signs that the Raiders are going to cover this. They're getting two and a half against the Browns. It's in Cleveland. Noel Delbeckham.

Possible bad weather. Possible wind, which I think is great for Baker Mayfield, who has enough problems as it is. Now you're throwing wind into the equation. The DVOA, 22nd for Cleveland, 23rd for Vegas. Huge turnover differential. Raiders are minus five. Cleveland's plus five,

which is usually a red flag for the team that's plus. Raiders are kind of secretly good on offense. They're 50% on third down, 78 on fourth down. And then on the flip side, the Browns giving up 47.1% on third down. And other teams are 11 and 12 against them on fourth down. And I w I was shocked last week, uh, from what we saw from their defense in a game, or it's just seemed like they were ready to finish off the Bengals and the Bengals were just putting together drives over and over again on them with no offensive line and no running back. So I, to me, this is a pick them. I feel like you're getting two and a half free points.

I think I got thrown off by how bad the Raiders were in that Bucks game, but, um, make the case why I shouldn't have been thrown off. Well, first of all, that was a, what, what Warren Sharp likes to call a faulty outcome, a faulty score. The Raiders were down by four points in that fourth quarter. And then, you know, a couple of things went Tampa's way and Tampa just, just put the game out of reach, but the Raiders were in that game,

you know, throughout most of it. And they were in the worst possible kind of disarray on the offensive line. It was an incredible mess. They had their right tackle didn't play because of a positive COVID test. And then his backup was inactive. And then they had all the other starting offensive linemen sit out self-quarantine until Sunday

morning to get all clear. And then when they started playing the game, the Raiders right tackle had a knee injury and then another guy got got kicked out so like you that's that is a low point for that offensive line and they were up against the best what you know uh maybe the best yeah yeah exactly right uh defensively in the league and they were within a one one score in the fourth quarter it wasn't a blowout um the way that the score kind of suggested you mentioned that the raiders um are sneaky good on offense they're sixth in offensive dvoa and one thing in particular that they do well

that um could be a nice indicator if there's bad weather is they do have a decent short passing game and it's all that's all they have what are you talking about well i That's all they have. What are you talking about? Well, I mean, they have that deep threat in rugs and twice a game, they send them out and he catches one. That's all they do. There's an Aguilar player once a game.

That's right. The Browns defense gave up 34 points in 470 yards last week to the Bengals. So I just think for all the reasons that you just said, these teams are pretty even to me and getting the two and a half points is value. I like the Raiders in this spot.

The Raiders are interesting because, so week one, they beat Carolina by four in a game that now looking at what we've seen from Carolina, it's like, that's a nice win. They beat New Orleans by 10 week two. They lose to the Pats in week three in a game that you had to watch it.

They lost by 16, but it was just one of those shoot bullets in your foot game. And I did feel a little lucky coming out of that game. They lose to Buffalo by seven. They beat Kansas City. And then that Tampa game, I think you throw it out. So then if they can be Cleveland, they're going at the chargers home, Denver home Casey, and then at Atlanta at the jets home Colts home chargers home, Miami at Denver, there's a roadmap for them to get to 10 wins. And

I think this game is weirdly important to them because it's one of the tougher road games they have left. I think they're mad about last week. Mark that one down. Next one. I have a couple maybes here. We can rip through them pretty fast. Steelers-Ravens. It's plus three and a half. I've liked the Steelers all

year. They've been good to me. They've covered a couple times. I have them to win the AFC Central. I have them win the AFC from before the season, so I have them to win the AFC Central. I have them win the AFC from before the season, so I have personal stake. I think last week was on pace to be a blowout, and AJ Brown got that weird touchdown, deep one. It was like, oh, shit, and then all of a sudden, it felt like a game. I don't think Baltimore will be able to run the ball on them. I think Pittsburgh has proven they even swallowed up Tennessee's run game for most of the game last week, which puts the game in Lamar's hands. And I just haven't seen him do it against a good defense yet. He is going to be home. The thing that worries me is I just haven't loved Roethlisberger this season. He's been okay, but they're not even throwing for seven yards of pass. He seems to make two throws a game.

And it makes me nervous for some reason that I can't really identify. The thing I do like is the hook. I like that. This is three and a half, not three. What do you think? Um, I really love Baltimore this week.

Okay, good. I think, uh, they, they have been resting. There's a, there's some incredible stats for them

coming off a bye week Harbaugh is awesome coming off a bye week 10-2 straight up 9-3 against his spread including games like last year they were underdogs going up against the Pats they came out and beat the crap out of them 37-20

Baltimore this is crucially important to their desire um, desire to win the AFC conference and get the buy, uh, in the first week of the playoffs. Crucially important for the Lamar narrative. Well, and, and let's talk about Lamar. He needs a good win in a big game against, against somebody. He hurt his knee against the Washington almost professional, definitely might be professional football team. And he, the last two games after that game,

they ran him way less and his passing accuracy was down. That's another report that's coming out is that he's, he's really used this time to get himself healthy and that he's feeling good. It's a fascinating matchup on the, on the outside because the Steelers have the best receiving core in football and Ben gets rid of the ball faster than anybody. But Baltimore has a chance to game plan against that. And to me, the real deciding factor why I like Baltimore in particular is Devin Bush

being out. I think that Baltimore, they can do some ball control. If Lamar really is healthy, he can run again. And if Lamar runs for 70 yards, I I'm going to play this game by buying the hook. I want to buy Baltimore at minus one 30 down to minus three. Cause I just feel like that's a safer number. I don't, I don't. So this sounds like a same game parlay not to, not to give FanDuel a second plug, but

you do Ravens minus three at minus 130, and then you do Lamar over whatever the rushing yards ends up being. It would be like 58 yards, whatever it is. Oh, let's do that. Let's get some odds for that. God damn it. We're going to do that one now. All right.

I'm going to stay away from that game. Another maybe Colts minus two and a half against the Lions. From a DVOA standpoint, the Colts should be favored by at least three. This is a Phil Rivers question. Do you feel comfortable betting money on Phil Rivers? And I'm not sure I do.

It really hurts, right? Because it has not been comfortable. I bet the Colts to win 10 games this year. And I have not enjoyed any of it. But I will say this, they to getting the left tackle back. Anthony Costanzo is coming back. He missed the Browns game,

came back for the Bengals game, but he, the buy that the Colts just had was helpful to him. Darius Leonard is coming back after missing the last two games. So that, that that's big for him. The, the, the Colts have a sneaky good defense.

And the Lions have beaten up on two bad teams to get themselves kind of back to 500, which is, you know. Well, the reality is they should be, if Gurley falls down on the one, they're two and four. And that's another reason why I might mark this one down. You know, the other thing we haven't had, uh,

the Jonathan Taylor breakout game yet. I just traded for him in one of my leagues. Cause I had Watson and Kyler Murray and I traded Watson for Taylor during his bi-week. Cause I was looking at running backs and I'm like, who has a chance? Like, and it feels like it's going to have,

they've been behind, they've had weird games, but maybe this is the week. I'm going to mark them down. Next one is Bengals plus five and a half against the Titans. Joey covers every week, except for, uh,

when he plays the Ravens, there's that since he's 30th and DVO, not great. I was really impressed with how they moved the ball last week. And then you think Tennessee's defense, which is just abysmal. Their defense sucks. It's kind of shocking.

They almost can't be considered a contender. They've given up 61% conversions on third down, their defense. So six out of every 10 times the other team gets a third down. They're also plus nine in turnovers. Now on the flip side, so six out of every 10 times, the other team gets a third down. Uh, there are also plus nine and turnovers.

Now on the flip side, Gus Kowski's cost them two games, but the five and a half just seems like, could Joey covers give me a little, little garbage time TD for the cover. Could they keep it close? I was just intrigued by it. Talk me out of it.

That's the one you're, you're, you're counting on. I don't really have a strong feeling for a side here. I might play Tennessee in a tease. I might tease them through the three and the six, tease them down.

Just try to pull out the W? Yeah. And because the price for that cheaper than the money line, I am very fearful of Joey covers. I mean, me too.

He was terrible. That Brown's bet last week. He was just flat out terrifying. Stop this guy, hit him late, do anything. The thing that I'm worried about, they do have like a decent defensive front seven and the Bengals

offensive line is atrocious. And the concern always with Joey covers is, is this the week when somebody comes and, and, and even if it goes out for any portion of the game at all, they're cooked. I think I'm throwing them in long shot parlay. Two more dolphins plus three against the Rams. There's a dolphin six to one AFC East bet that neither of us have made, but we've been staring at for most of the week.

Dolphins might be pretty good. They throw throughout week one, they lose to the Pats 2111, which was a goofy game. have made, but we've been staring at for most of the week. Dolphins might be pretty good. Throughout week one, they lose to the Pats, 21-11, which was a goofy game. And they just, whatever, they had some injuries. Lose to Buffalo by three. Kill Jacksonville. Went toe-to-toe with Seattle.

Kill San Francisco. Kill the Jets. And then they bring in Tua for fits. And I don't know. They're only getting three against the Rams. They're 13th DVOA. Rams are seventh. And the line is suspiciously low, which kind of makes me like the Dolphins. I would have assumed the Rams are favored by four, four and a half.

Why is the line three? Part of it has to do with the fact that the Rams are once again flying out East. This is their fourth Eastern time zone game already, you know, halfway through the season and they're on a short week. They just played Monday night against the bears. And that was a physical effing game, right? The, the, that bears Rams game. That's a good playoff preview for like a first round playoff matchup. Potentially the Rams have really good performance against the spread and straight up on the East coast under Sean McVay, 10 and four against the spread in their last 14 games on the road,

eight and two straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games on the East coast. That's because Sean McVay is a good coach and they plan and they have sensible game plan. The concern that I have is what version of Jared Goff are you going to get? Well, especially in the 85 degree weather. There you go. You beat me to it.

That's it. Just played Monday night. Big win. Yes. Exactly. Flores action. The one I like here is the Dolphins money line. I think it's like plus 165 or something I saw.

That's the number that I like here. We have no idea what that offense will look like with Tua. The offense was surprisingly pretty effective in a couple different areas with Fitzpatrick. We have no idea with Tua. So you got Dolphins money lines plus 150. Sure. There you go. I like the money plus 150. Sure. There you go.

I like the money lines here. That's a little tasty. I'm going to mark that one down. Last one, just we have to mention this one. Seattle minus two and a half against San Francisco. Just a complete fuck you to Russell Wilson that he's not favored by three in this game. Wow.

Vegas is like, no, two and a half. Here's the thing. I'm still not over Seattle. Shit in the bed last week. Not just shit in the bed. They were accomplices in that loss. Like they actively aided and abetted that loss through the combination of play call through the, through having no

defensive scheme whatsoever for Kyler Murray. They had an effing bi-week, a full two weeks to prepare for Kyler Murray. And not one guy had eyes on Kyler Murray, that entire effing game. And, you know, they, they had the game in hand to win with a minute, 45 seconds left. And they ran three straight Carlos hide to the same side of the line. You know, they gained six yards, one first down and they win that football game and either Russ at the line. Didn't, didn't, you know, because they initiated that end of game. They got one first down. They needed two first downs.

The way they got that first first down was Russ running for nine yards. And then they got another one. They got the Cardinals in the position to have to use those timeouts. And they did. But the game was on the line. And they just run Carlos Hyde. He doesn't get the yards. You know what it was?

They were due to lose a dumb game because they've won plenty of them. That's a fact. You're right. The dumb game gods were just like, Hey man, we, you can't, this can't happen again.

They have a historically bad defense. They, they are on pace to blow the NFL record for most yards allowed in the season. They've given up 171 first downs, which is third worst. Teams are almost 49% on them in third down. They're 28th in

defensive DVOA. And yet, I don't know. I don't... I like the two and a half. And the Niners are banged up, too, right? They're missing... Now they're missing Mostert. Wilson looked really good last week. He's out. Debo got hurt he's out

and it's like it's like it's with all the injuries so Debo is the truly concerning aspect for San Francisco because the one thing that is apparent you can throw on Seattle and it doesn't matter you know so big Iuke game it could be it could be the Brandon

Iuke break down game yeah last one long shot parlay. We got Bengals with the Vikings who are against Green Bay, plus seven. But for a long shot parlay, Bengals and Vikings win. That's plus 915.

And then you have Bengals. I don't like the Vikings. I don't either. Bengals-Bears is plus 815. Bears are playing the Saints. They're five-point underdogs to the Saints The other move is to throw the Dolphins and Bengals together And that's plus 650

So those are our three options for long shot parlay of the week I like Dolphins-Bengals the best I think I do too Oh, good But I also like Bengals-Bears Yeah, I. But I also like Bengals bears. Yeah. I like the, I like the bears also. Um, I think, uh, new Orleans has been, you know, overrated, uh, by, by Vegas, uh, so

far this season. And they, they haven't really impressed me in any game. I, I very much liked what Carolina did against them, uh, all week in Carolina. I mean, they had to try a 65 yard field goal to tie at the end, but they, they were every bit the equal of, of new Orleans in new Orleans last week. Did we say yes on the Colts minus two and a half? We did, right?

Yes. I like the Colts. All right. Million dollar picks week eight. I am up 144,000 for the season. Here's what we're doing. Teaser three 30 to win 300,000. Eagles minus eight and a half over Dallas and Tampa minus 12 against the Jets.

Eagles down to minus two and a half, Tampa down to minus six. 330 to win 300. Bills minus three against the Patriots. We're going to buy the half point minus 130. So 390 to win 300 on the Buffalo Bills against the six time champion. Now a potential carcass doing good Patriots.

I can't lose no matter what happens in this game. Next one, the Raiders plus two and a half in Cleveland, windy three 30 to win 300 on that. And then we're going to do a little, little, little sampling hundred each. Ooh. On Colts minus two and a half over the Lions.

Yes. Dolphins plus 150 to beat the Rams outright. We just love it. And the Seahawks minus two and a half over the Niners. Out of respect to Russell Wilson, just because if they lose this game, people will talk about the BS podcast curse with Russell Wilson.

Oh, and two since coming on the podcast. I really need to come through. You can't have that. Our long shot parlay of the week. We're going to do Bengals, Dolphins. Both of them have to win 30K plus 615. And then we'll sprinkle a little 20K on Bengals Bears. Good.

Plus 815. Yeah. That's called roundals bears. Good. Plus eight 15. Yeah. That's called round Robin right there. And those are the million dollar picks for week eight house. We can hear you with Warren sharp, a guy who knows way more about football than I do, but it was wonderful to see you as always. Always a pleasure.

The masters are right around the corner. We've got football in full array. And by the way, the holidays are coming. That means holiday food, Bill Simmons. Oh, and also congratulations for a week and a half ago. You broke the record for longest ad read in a history of a ringer podcast. You did a FanDuel read that was like five and a half minutes. So congrats.

Look, I get excited when we're talking about FanDuel embedding. I mean, you know, kill me. You're like the Paul Thomas Anderson of ad reads. Just give me an opportunity with Heineken again. Wait till I have some Heineken tonight. All right. I'll see you later. Good times.

See you, buddy. All right. Bringing in right now, Bakari Sellers, who hosts the Bakari Sellers podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network. Great podcast. He's also on CNN and a whole bunch of other places. And his colleague, Harry Anton, who has somehow never been on this podcast. The three of us are going to talk about the election, which is now less than five days away.

So here that is. All right, fellas, we're taping this. It is Thursday, 1 p.m. PT 4 p.m et so if anything changes don't blame us uh we are now five days away and bakar is gonna be on tv for seven straight hours is that was that seven straight hours tuesday night no i don't know about seven but close you know we'll we'll uh we'll pop in and pop out. But we actually start full coverage. I think Harry knows this too. We start full coverage on Saturday.

We're 24 hours live starting Saturday morning. So we'll be on. Anytime you want to see some handsome guys, you can tune into CNN starting Saturday. And we'll go through Thursday. And Harry, you're just drinking coffee and staying up for five straight days? What's your life going to be like?

I'm drinking the Coke Zero, the Diet Pepsi, anything that has caffeine. And I've already started. You know, I was in the studio at 740 on Thursday. I had four or five hits today. I'm doing this thing. I did a radio interview and we're just going to keep on going, going, going until I collapse. Hamster wheel. How are we looking? Right now, Biden, I think, is minus 180, minus 175. Trump is in the minus or the plus 145, plus 150 range. Bakari and I were texting today. I'm still not

a total believer in these polls because I am not convinced that there's a certain number of people out there who is honest when the, when these pollsters call them, I do believe in that. We saw it a little bit in 2016. I think that's not the only reason we had a surprise. Harry, do you believe the polls?

I do. Okay. But here's the real thing. Here's the real thing, Mr. Simmons, even if you had a polling error, the same size as you had in 2016,

a current 2020, Joe Biden would still get over 300 electoral votes. His lead, simply put, is larger than Hillary Clinton's. And we could go through the individual swing states during the course of this. But just to start off with the national polls, because I think it just gives you a broad overview, Joe Biden's up by nine or 10 points in the average. In the final polls of 2016, Hillary Clinton was up three or four points. So Joe Biden's lead is twice as large as Hillary Clinton's was nationally. And so, you know, even if you don't believe the polls and you take some sort of discount, you still should have Joe Biden. OK, but what's your biggest fear right now, five days away?

Well, I'm a little Zen, to be completely honest with you, because a lot of my Democratic brethren are proverbial bedwetters. And, you know, we have this this level of angst and anxiety and I refuse to go there. And I just feel like, you know, to be completely honest, and I don't know if Harry agrees with me, I think our democracy truly rests on three states, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. And the reason I say those three states is because you will be able to count those ballots on election night. There's no red mirage, as my friends at Hawkfish will talk about often. And a red mirage, for those who don't know, is let's take a state like Pennsylvania, for example, that on election night, it appears that Joe Biden is winning. I mean, excuse me, Donald Trump is winning without counting all of the mail-in ballots. And so there's this freak paranoia that on election night, it's going to look like Donald Trump is

winning before you count all the mail-in ballots. And I think you get rid of all that angst, all of that anxiety, because Donald Trump literally, and Harry, correct me if I'm wrong, but Donald Trump literally has to win Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida to be president of the United States. I'm not sure of a scenario he gets to 270. I mean, I know there are, you can play with them, but a legitimate scenario, he gets to 270 without winning all three of those. Yeah, what I would say is that you're 100% right. If Joe Biden wins in the state of Florida,

sure, you could draw up some map of that occurring. I'm sure you could also come up with some scenario that Bill roots for the New York Yankees, but those are very far in between. At the end of the day, if Joe Biden wins in the state of Florida, he is almost certainly going to be the next president of the United States. And that's pretty much the same as Ohio and North Carolina, although North Carolina might be a little bit, might be more like 98 percent of the time if Joe Biden wins in North Carolina, he becomes the next president. But it's something

fairly close to a short thing. And you count those votes, Bill, just so you know, you do count those votes. I mean, they dump those mail-in ballots. We will have so much data at seven o'clock out of the state of Florida that we will be able to parse through and be able to see what it looks like is happening. And this is going way into the weeds, just so you know, but Hillary Clinton and Democrats had a 90,000 vote, Democratic vote advantage going into the election in 2016. After you opened the ballot, you saw that she had a 247,000 vote advantage. I mean, with independents voting for her and some Republicans voting for her. She was up by 247,000 votes. She ended up losing by 113,000. And so on Monday night, you're going to look for

what's the Democratic vote advantage. And then on Tuesday, it's 7, 15, 7, 27, 30. Smart people like Harry and John King will be able to deduce and peel back how many votes she's actually up. If he's up by more than 247,000, if he's up by like half a million, then that's, this is an interesting race in Florida. One that I would bet on if I was a Democrat. Why isn't Pennsylvania one of the key states? It is a key state, but what Bakari is getting at is look here. Well, first off, we should say Pennsylvania is absolutely a key state, right? Absolutely. If Joe Biden wins in Pennsylvania, he's probably going to win the election. In fact, I would argue it's, you know, if you were to use a Nate Silver terminology, a tipping point state,

Pennsylvania is that. It's the state that's likely to put a candidate over the top in the Electoral College. The difference in Pennsylvania is that the vote by mail or absentee ballots will not begin to get processed until election day in Pennsylvania, and the vote-by-mail or absentee ballots will not begin to get processed until Election Day in Pennsylvania, and the vote count is likely going to extend into Wednesday or Thursday. And the first ballots that come in in Pennsylvania will be the Election Day ballots, which is the exact opposite of what's going to occur in Florida, where the first ballots to get counted will be those vote-by-mail and early in-person votes. So essentially what Bakari's arguing is that if Joe Biden wins in Florida, there's no

real scenario where Trump can say, see, I'm ahead and they stole it from me, versus in Pennsylvania, while those are perfectly legitimate votes, obviously, that are cast by absentee ballot, Trump is going to try and claim something nefarious when no such thing has actually occurred. So this is, I mean, people have been talking about that Tuesday night when we normally have a really good idea by whatever time. Sometimes it could be late at night. Sometimes it can stretch till two in the morning. Is there a world in which we have no idea even when we go to bed on Tuesday who won? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well, it seemed like that was the fear initially, but

then now people are like, no, no, actually, but it still feels like, what would you say is more probable? Us going to bed on Tuesday night, not knowing who won or us going to bed on Tuesday night, knowing who won. I think, I think what's probable is you going to bed, knowing who won without them being declared a winner. And I think that everybody, everybody will be able to say like, you know, my guy won, you know, and this is probably more tilted towards Joe than Trump, but my guy won. I can go to sleep. We're hammered. It's 3.30. They have it. NBC, Fox, CBS, ABC, CNN having rolled out the breaking news with Blitzer banner that says we have a new president of the United States. It is because that didn't happen till like 3.30, 3.45 a.m. last go around after I went to bed at 11 o'clock knowing that

Hillary Clinton wasn't going to be president. I mean, I knew the blue wall was chipped and I knew that she lost Florida. Yeah, that was over. And I think that you'll have something similar. I mean, when you by the time you get to the West Coast, a lot of my Democratic friends had these weird ideologies about, you know, Georgia and Texas and Go Georgia, go Texas. Anyway, if Joe Biden wins in Arizona, for example, where he's likely to win in Arizona, that late in the night thing, you'll get closer to,

if everything else is up in the air, which I don't think it will be, Arizona is one of those tipping point states, I think, Harry can correct me again, it's one of those tipping point states. He wins Arizona, then the path gets even that much more narrow. Arizona is a state that often doesn't get spoken about on the East, perhaps because it's all the way in the Western. Maybe folks just don't like the desert. I don't know. But Arizona is a key state in terms of what perhaps you could call a plan 1B for Joe Biden, right? If you put the Hillary Clinton states together, that totals 232 electoral votes.

Then you add in Michigan with its 16, you get to 248. Then Nebraska's second congressional district. Remember, Nebraska, like Maine, allocates one electoral vote to the winner in each of those congressional districts. The second district, Omaha, very likely to go for Biden. So that gets into 249. You add in Wisconsin. Especially after he left everybody fucking freezing at his last rally in Nebraska two

nights ago. Good point. So let's talk about local news stories. So all of these things, I'm sorry to interrupt you, but there is a local news story which will help in that one electoral vote. No, it's a very important electoral vote because you add in there, you get to 249. You add in Wisconsin, where COVID is going bonkers right now, you get to 259. And then you add in Arizona and it's 11 electoral votes and you get to exactly 270 without Biden needing to win in Pennsylvania, win in Florida, win in North Carolina. So Arizona,

to me, key state, one in which Joe Biden's leading by about four points in the averages. We talk to each other right now. Wow. So in terms of what Hillary didn't win in 2016, what are the states that Biden has clearly taken over over those last four years where we just feel confident these are the ones he's taken. Bakari, I wonder if you disagree with me, but I think in order of sort of the ones where I feel the most confident that Biden will win Michigan, then Wisconsin. I know there's been some doubt about Wisconsin, but I actually feel pretty confident that Biden will win there. Then Nebraska's second congressional district. And then I think that

there are different strokes for different folks, whether they think it's ultimately Arizona or ultimately Pennsylvania that he will win. And he's obviously leading in North Carolina and Florida,

but I think that, and even Georgia, but there's far less certainty, especially about Georgia. No, I think so. And I, well, I'm not a, I'm not a Georgia fan. Georgia's fool's goal.

I think Georgia, Georgia, Georgia is a lot like Missouri was for Barack Obama. You got to do a talk to Axelrod every day. They always thought they were winning Missouri. They never did. And what you all don't probably don't remember. And I don't know if I'm stumping Harry or not. But if you go back, George W. Bush actually sent Dick Cheney to Hawaii. Oh, I recall that. In his re-election, because they fucking thought they were going to win Hawaii and they got beat by like eight. So there's always a state or two where people think they can expand the map and they don't. I think Georgia is probably that state. But I do think that the Senate candidates are going to have, they're going to fare a little bit better and that's going to be a longer race. But I think Harry's right.

I think Arizona is probably the state I would point to that. You will see the biggest turnover or swing. I think you'll see a growth in Nevada, although Hillary won Nevada. I think you'll see a growth in Nevada. I think that he'll win all the blue wall states. But I think that the secret sauce and I'm not sure if Joe's going to pull this off or not, but I do think Ohio is a state where Joe Biden is overperforming. And I think that there is a chance in Ohio that I know Monmouth just came out with a poll, like as we're taping today, where Joe Biden's up four or five. And you got to throw that in the whole gumbo pot. So I don where Joe Biden's up four or five, you got to throw that in the

whole gumbo pot. So I don't believe he's up four or five. I think Ohio will be a one point, two point state, but we'll know election night. I think that's the state he can win. You know, just to jump in here for a second, what is so important when you're looking at trends in the national polls, which that's part of the reason I look at the national polling is to understand demographic subgroups. And what you do see is that Joe Biden is considerably outperforming Hillary Clinton among white voters without a college degree. When you compare the pre-election polls in 2016 and the pre-election polls in 2020. And of course, if you know your map, there are a ton of those voters in the Great Lake Battleground states, such as Ohio, such as Pennsylvania, such as Michigan, such as Wisconsin. And although technically Iowa is not on the Great

Lakes, I guess you could say it's part of the Midwest. I think that's exactly right. It's part of the reason why Biden is very competitive in Iowa, despite Hillary Clinton losing that state by a little bit over nine points. So what's the recipe for Biden just crushing election night where it's actually like a landslide? Is it three or four states that if those go, it could totally swing? I think it's county level. I mean, you have to look at the states whereby you have or counties whereby you have these large portions of white non-college educated voters. And if you see him start to make up ground in those states, you can start to see a cascade. What we are seeing, though, in Florida, in Georgia, in North Carolina, is you're seeing black voters, particularly 65 and above, turn out in numbers that are maximizing, if not exceeded. And the question is, and this is a

larger question, this is a question for somebody smarter than I, like Harry and Ron Brownstein and many of those guys, is are Democrats cannibalizing their voters? And that is probably one of the larger questions. 16, especially in Florida, because a lot of us were waiting for Broward County and Dade County to dump voters out, and there were no more voters to dump out on election night because they had all voted early. And so the question is, are all of these target voters voting early? And I think that the biggest difference you see now are not some of the more traditional buckets, but are white, non-college educated voters, are they coming home to Joe Biden or are they sticking with Donald Trump? And that's going to tell the difference.

You know, another thing I would just point out is voters 65 and over. You know, that was a group that has voted Republican in every presidential election since at least 2000. There's some argument among the nerds whether or not Gore won that senior vote or not. I tend to think he actually didn't, but whatever, that's for another conversation. But you do see that Joe Biden is leading among seniors nationally. You see that in Florida, that group is quite competitive. And obviously you go to the villages, you go down to Palm Beach County. Can Joe Biden expand upon the Democratic margins

in Palm Beach, even if he's losing some ground among Hispanics in Miami-Dade? These are the types of questions that will ultimately become answered. And if he is, look, at the end of the day, if you lose a few Hispanic supporters, but you gain some whites without a college degree and you gain some senior citizens.

That's a pretty good trade in the Electoral College. Is it fair to say you can follow where they're spending their time these next four days to know where their teams think are the states they have to win? I mean, look, Joe Biden's going to Minnesota as part of a Midwest package. You know, I don't really think Minnesota is in danger, although, you know, Donald Trump went to the Minnesota in the final days of the 2016 campaign. And we all thought, what the heck is he doing there? And then he only lost a state by a point and a half. Look, I think it gives you a broad understanding of where the electoral map is.

But I tend to be the type of guy who's like, what's the poll average say? Historically speaking, how off have the polls been in those states? Have they been biased in one way or another? And that's how I tend to view it. I don't try to get head faked by the campaigns themselves. Sometimes they do head fakes.

Donald Trump especially might pull a head fake occasionally once in a while. So, yeah. Yeah, Donald Trump ended up campaigning and making Georgia like in the run-up to the election in 2016. And everybody's like, why are you going to make in Georgia?

Like Georgia's not in play then. It wasn't a swing state. I mean, so the head fake is very, very real. I think, you know, Joe Biden uniquely enough has been to Pennsylvania over 20 times. Over 20 times. He's been to no other state over five. So Joe Biden really, really, really, really wants to win Pennsylvania.

I wouldn't be surprised if his election night or Monday night, and I don't know where it is. I'm just talking out the side of my neck. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was in Philadelphia to try to. With Carson Wentz and Joel Embiid? Exactly. I mean, I think he should go with Tobias Harris. I mean, and Doc Rivers. Roll out.

And Doc Rivers. Yeah. Darryl Morey. Roll out the whole crew. Yeah. You definitely can't roll out Darryl Morey. I mean, he hasn't answered a question about China since he left Houston. So, you know,

let's not do that. Let's not add any more monkey wrenches to the list. So, you know, I think there is a head fake, but I think that the most valuable thing you have is time. I know Kamala's going to Texas if she's not already there today. I can't remember. And I don't know where

Mike Pence is, but, you know, right now, this thing is pretty much baked. It's all about a GOTV game now. How much help has the voting stuff, the ads, the athletes stepping in, the celebrities, the social media campaigns, what do you honestly think has been the effect of that? I mean, I'd be interested in Bakari's thoughts on this, but to me, it can't hurt the turnout, right? And this is something we haven't discussed yet.

We're going to be looking at record turnout as percentage of the voting eligible population since 18-year-olds got the vote just before the 72 election. We're probably looking at 155 million people turning out and voting this time. It was less than 140 million back in 2016. And I think there's been this real emphasis both in the sports world and the celebrity world, and just generally speaking, to get people to turn out and vote. And I think that you're seeing that right now in the early vote numbers, right? I mean, we ran past the 2016 early vote earlier this week with no problem. Now, part of that's the pandemic, but part of that is just the overwhelming enthusiasm either for or against the president of the United States being aided by all these get out the vote-ins. Yeah, I mean, I think you see,

you're seeing much more. I mean, just people sharing their voices, whether or not it's Alicia Keys and Kerry Washington, who were tonight, you know, doing something on CBS, I believe. And even somebody on the other side, and I don't get offended by this. I think everybody should have their voice, but Jack Nicklaus today coming out and saying he's voting for Donald Trump. You know, people, I mean, Twitter is not the real world, but to cancel Jack Nicklaus is coming out and saying he's voting for Donald Trump. You know, people, I mean, Twitter's not the real world, but to cancel Jack Nicklaus is stupid. Like, one, it ain't going to happen.

And two, let the man speak his piece. He's 80 years old. I mean, he's fought the good fight. Let the man support who he wants to support. Now, Jay Cutler, I think he was probably, as you saw Jay Cutler come out and support Trump, I think he was probably trying to support Joe Biden, but it got intercepted.

I've been waiting to use that one all day. So, you know, that is different. But let everybody, you know, you're starting to see athletes, even 80-year-old athletes and Jack Nicklaus or LeBron James use their voice and use their power. What will it change in this election is your question. I'm not sure it will change much. I think that there is a huge lightning round right now. But I do believe with the numbers of poll workers and the numbers of people who are engaged in the process and now athletes finding their voice, I think it truly changes the fundamentals of electoral politics going forward. And so I think both parties will now have to be more accountable because I don't think these voices are going to be quiet.

I think that, you know, whether or not, you know, the WNBA has always been very, very, very loud and very vocal. But the NBA now being vocal for rookies in the league to LeBron James are being vocal. Athletes who are retired, these entire institutions. So now I do think that there's not going to be any days off and it may not change what happens next Tuesday. But I do think that it's going to raise a level of awareness

about our political processes, which has not been raised in the future going forward. Well, don't forget about the NFL voting campaign, which was basically, it looked like they spent about 10 bucks

where it's like Pete Carroll and this, yeah, Pete Carroll and all these coaches and players like, Hey guys, you should vote. And there's, you know, the NBA had these really cool polished ad campaigns. And then it felt like, Hey, vote voting's a good thing. And just kind of crammed it through. But it, even to see it on football was kind of crazy. Think about where we were three years ago, where, you know, football is just constantly trying to pretend nothing's happening outside the football bubble. And now at least they're acknowledging it. I just want, I want, I want whatever Nick Saban had. That's all I want.

Because Nick Saban had code for 12 hours. And I want you to know that that went away. But I mean, I just to, it's such such I mean, I've personally sued the NFL. I was appalled. They own an entire day of the week. And to have them stick their stick their toe into social has kind of been dope. But watching these athletes, these athletes aren't going anywhere. I mean, these at these younger athletes, I mean, Justin Fields led a protest to want to come out and play. These younger athletes are going to, I mean,

they are compelling their coaches and everyone else to get involved. I think that something is happening in this country. And to sum it up, Bill, I don't think this is a moment. I think this is a movement. I just want to jump in on that. As a Buffalo Bills fan who watches every single weekend, no matter how good or bad the team has been, I remember Kyle Lorden quarterbacking, J.P. Lossman, all that jazz. I watch every single one of their games, win or lose. And if you know Buffalo

and you know the Buffalo metropolitan area, while the city itself is quite democratic, the metropolitan area is most certainly not. And what you have seen in the last year amongst the Buffalo Bills is much more of a social justice campaign compared to four years ago, where you saw Rex Ryan getting on that stage and endorsing Donald Trump.

And it was just like, that was what was expected and accepted. And it's just been a completely different world this year in the NFL, at least as far as the bills have been concerned. Yeah, you think about one of the goals since basically since June was, how do you raise awareness? How do you get people motivated? How do you get them engaged?

It feels like all of that's happened. Your generation, I remember I met Harry when he was a young whippersnapper in the 538 offices. I think you were, what were you like, early mid-20s at that point? Mid-20s? That sounds probably about right. I was mid-20s and Connie Schell was probably what,

mid-30s then? Yeah, yeah, yeah. You were one of the young whippersnappers. Now this whole generation behind you, which you can really divide almost by social media. I'd say maybe the cutoffs like 28. The 28 and unders

are so much more engaged with all this stuff and they've grown up with social media and they're just more active in general. From that demo, if we're just saying 18 to 26, that would be the most engaged voting demo we've ever had. from that demo, like if we're just saying 18 to 26, right, that will be the most engaged voting demo

we've ever had, right? But you know why, though? Do you know why? Why? It's because they're not getting their news from traditional news sources. Like our parents, we all go to CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS,

and that's changed because we're now gravitating towards cable news, whereas our parents had the Tom Brokaw's, the Peter, not who was with Tom Jennings, Tom Brokaw, Peter Jennings, Dan Rather. Yeah. And there was a, when there, there was a, oh, Dan Rather. So I'm thinking about, I was like, there was another old guy too. And so, but now people are starting to move and consume their news in different ways, i.e. podcasts. They're getting their news off Instagram snippets.

And so it's changed. So you can get way more people involved in messaging right now than you ever could. And everyone under their phone or with their phone feels like they could push out a political message. And everybody on Twitter has a low degree. I mean, that's just the way it works. Yeah. It's that Generation Z. That's the difference.

That cutoff between the millennials and that Generation Z. Those Gen Zers. I'm right at the edge of the millennials, but I am a proud millennial. Those Gen Zers, I don't necessarily always know what they're doing. But God bless them. What is Biden's message these last four days? I mean, Bakari, I wonder what you think it is. But to me, it's been a consistent message of unity.

I'm going to bring back a sense of dignity to the White House. I'm going to listen to the scientists. And I am not Donald Trump. I mean, that's implied. He hasn't necessarily said it. Trump allows it to go. But I just want to step back for a second and just remark for a guy that so many complain could not stay disciplined. Joe Biden's campaign has been so freaking disciplined. It's been nuts, especially given the preconceived notions of who Joe Biden was.

Yeah, I mean, Joe Biden has been the most disciplined candidate that we've seen, not named Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders, by the way, has been on the same message since 1984. So, I mean, that has been somewhat, you know, that's who he is. But I will tell you that Joe Biden has been very, very much on message. What's his final campaign? I mean, he's the number one, two and three issue for voters going in. In 2018, we saw the largest issue by a long shot was health care. And I think health care tied into the coronavirus are the number one issues because it's not only people. And I think the I think Republicans miss it because they treat it only as a public health crisis, but it's truly an economic crisis as well. And when you think about the millions of dollars, think about the city of Auburn, the small businesses, the restaurants, the bars, the hotels, the police who pull you over, you know, all of those things. And they're not able

to garner any of that revenue. So it's a it's a true it's a true cataclysmic event. And so I think that Joe Biden's message the last four days is one, don't fuck anything up. Like no mistakes right now. I mean, that is like, so he's going full game manager for corners, Dean Smith, four corners all day. I mean, we're not, are we managing or are we just putting people that can shoot free throws? That's not even management. That is just, just four corners all day. Don't fuck it up. Talk about coronavirus and let's get the Tuesday and let's have a good team of lawyers in place. You got to have lawyers from the Trump side. Is there a possibility if they're starting to get from their internal polling stuff that things are starting to slip away?

Do you see him flying off the flying off the map those last two days and taking some wild swings? Because it feels like that could happen too. Wild swings. I feel like every presidential rally is a wild swing from the president of the United States. This idea that he's all of a sudden going to get off of message. He will go on in his speeches, you know, they'll go an hour, two hours.

They'll have the prearranged comments that he's supposed to give and he'll consistently go off of message. And I just find it, you know, I've written on this, I've appeared on air on and spoken about this. I, just from a purely political analyst's point of view, I don't really understand how you're running a campaign in this day and age in which we're all wearing masks,

in which there is a global pandemic, and that is not at the heart of the campaign that you are running, and that you're basically trying to ignore it away. And you're blaming the press for bringing it up when people are literally dying and the coronavirus cases are rising. It is political malpractice.

You know, it reminds me of that Seinfeld episode. Does it, you know, does the fact that Brian Cranston switched over to Judaism for the jokes, does it bother you as a Jew? No, it bothers me as a comedian. This is exactly it. It bothers me as a political analyst that someone could potentially run this type of campaign because I just think it's malpractice. And Bakari, COVID by far has to be the, when we remember the 2020 election, I think the COVID piece and how Trump handled it will ultimately be the, when we remember the 2020 election, I think the COVID piece and how Trump handled it will ultimately be the thing we remember first, despite all the

other crazy, terrible shit that happened this year. It's still coming down and COVID is getting worse as we're hitting this election. Yeah, I think so. But I also think, I mean, I hear you, but I would think the further we get away from the Donald Trump presidency, like the people who support it and not support it, but the people who vote in Trump are going to look back at this moment and be like, wow, this was kind of surreal. Like, what what what do we really do? What was going on? I think people will remember. I mean, there aren't many people before this year who remember the pandemic. They didn't. Nobody remembered the Spanish flu. Nobody remembered the 1919 Spanish flu.

They just didn't. It wasn't really taught in our schools, etc. People will always remember Donald Trump. This Trumpism and Trumpism is not going away either. The question that Republicans will have in 2024. And please don't shoot me for talking about 2024, even before we're through the 2020 election, because people like Harry are already having polls out about who the GOP nominee will be in 2024. It's you. It's Jack Nicklaus, Jack Nicklaus, 84, making a push for it, whether or not it's Harry, whether or not it's Matt, Matty Gates, or whether or not it's Tom Cotton or whether or not it's Nikki Haley or whether or not it's Larry Hogan or Jeff Flake or anybody, any of these names or somebody

we don't even know. They're still going to have to do it. Or Donald Trump Jr. He's running for mayor, though. So, I mean, we'll see. So we'll figure out how far Trumpism lingers in the Republican Party. I think it's around to stay. Yeah, I think Jr. will be the torch

carrier, you would think, over these next four years. And God only knows how fast he can rise up the ranks. In terms of the Trump piece of this, Harry, is there anything he, is there a Hail Mary he can throw with four

days to go that could actually flip any of this, in your opinion? I mean, look, there are no knowns, there are known unknowns, and there are unknown unknowns. I'm sure there is some scenario in which he can do something that we haven't thought about that can change things, right? There's a reason- Because I was thinking about the Comey thing

four years ago is the obvious parallel, right? That comes out of nowhere. And that actually did matter. Yes. I will point out that we're well past that point in the cycle, right? I think there was some hope among conservatives and Republicans that the Hunter Biden stuff could turn into that. As it turns out, it really was not picked up by the mainstream media.

The story just did not develop into the type of bombshell that I think conservatives were hoping. It was brought up at the debate, and I think most people just had no idea what they were talking about. And this has been a problem for Trump, is he is consistently talking to a cable news audience when the people who are truly undecided or the swing voters tend to be perhaps more of a network news audience during election or a local news audience. Sure, there's a possibility that Trump could do something, but if he hasn't done it yet, with already 70 plus million people who have already voted, it seems to me he's probably not going to do it in the final, say, 96 hours, 120 hours of this campaign.

Bacar, you told me early on in this that we needed four good hours from Biden. You were basically like just need to go out there, complete some passes, don't get picked, no fumbles on why you're getting sacked.

People laughed at me when I made the Kamala Harris Eddie House comparison. It's true. And, you know, I'll make the, the Trent Dilfer Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl. People forget Trent Dilfer has a Superbowl and he had an amazing, I mean, of course you didn't, but he has an amazing defense and Trent Dilfer didn't throw the ball to the other team. And Joe Biden is not doing that.

It's one of the most disciplined campaigns that you've ever, people may get classified as being unexceptional and that's fine. Nobody cares about that. Trent went, he trimmed in hat. When you go back and look at NFL Superbowl winning quarterbacks, is Trent Dilfer in your top five for arm talent? No. Or mobility? No. Any of those things that you would attribute to a quarterback? No, but he's a Super Bowl champion. Joe Biden came at the right time. He's disciplined enough.

He's talented enough to be at that level. And, you know, he's going to – I mean, we'll know more of this by next Tuesday, but I feel like he's in the best position of anybody running for president. And, Harry, I think I'm right, but I don't know anybody that's been in a stronger position right now. I mean, even Jimmy Carter running against Reagan in 80 was in a stronger position right now than Donald Trump is. Jimmy Carter hemorrhaged a lot of support in 1980, if I'm not mistaken. So, I mean, Joe Biden's in a really, really good spot. I'll put it this way. He is in the strongest

position for any challenger of an incumbent since at least 1992, when Bill Clinton was taking on George H.W. Bush. And he's held a consistent lead. This has been the most consistent lead since... I went back and looked since 1936. This lead is steady as a rock. It is Tyrod Taylor not throwing interceptions, if you'll allow me that one. I still think the Bills kind of screwed him over. He has done... And the Chargers. And he got punctured lung.

He got attacked by the Chargers. I was like, wait a minute, I don't like the Tyrod Taylor example because he could be on the bench for life because his own team punctured his lung. He's got attacked by his team doctor. That's a horrible, horrible... He led the Bills to the playoffs. I'll put it that way. He's got attacked by his team doctor. He led the bill to the playoffs. I'll put it that way. He broke the streak. Now, obviously,

from Andy Dalton and company, but still, the point is, look, there's still a shot that the polls are off, something crazy happens, but Joe Biden has done what he has needed to have done and allowed Donald Trump to be Donald Trump and allowed this to be a referendum on the president of the United States. And in doing so, he has not allowed this to turn into a repeat of 2016. We had the two least liked candidates of all time. He's allowed Donald Trump's unpopularity to speak for itself. So the Senate, this is almost like where you have the giant boxing pay-per-view

with the huge super fight, but then there's this other fight. That's the fight right before that's getting no publicity at all. And this is the Senate races basically. Any big surprises looming in the Senate? What's something to watch for people who have been following that? The two biggest races to watch for Democrats, and it's a little bit counterintuitive, are Michigan with John James and Minnesota with Tina Smith. Isn't it Tina Smith? It is Tina Smith. She's running for the full term. For the full term. And I think that if Democrats hold on to those two seats, then they will maintain, then they will not maintain, but they will gain a majority because they're going to,

Democrats are going to win. We're going to lose Alabama with all due respect. Tommy Tuberville is probably going to abandon the people of Alabama like he abandoned every team he's ever coached, but he's probably going to be a United States Senator. So you lose that seat, but that means Democrats have to win four. That means they win in Colorado. That means they win in Arizona. That means they win in Maine with Sarah Gideon. And that means they win in North Carolina with Cal Cunningham. They may even win in Iowa with Greenfield. That's kind of on the edge there. But if you win those four and you maintain James and Smith, then you

have, then Mitch McConnell is no longer the majority leader. And I think that's very important to a lot of people. And so I think that Tina Smith and Gary Peters, who's running against John James, if they win those seats, then they will

gain a majority. Anything to add, Harry? I would just say that North Carolina and Iowa are the two closest races at this particular time. We're Republican incumbents. The Democrats need to win at least one of those. We'll probably know on election night whether or not Cal Cunningham, despite his sexting scandal, is able to defeat Tom Tillis. So that's the big one. And, you know, just in terms of surprises, maybe you'd be looking at a Montana or a Kansas, which are potential for Democrats, although I don't think they'll ultimately pull it off. And then, you know, we hit on it very briefly earlier on is the two Georgia

Senate races. John Ossoff with a long seat against David Perdue. He's been coming on very strong in the polls. But remember, the key in Georgia is you have a 50% rule. You have to get a majority of the vote to win on election night or it goes to a runoff in January. And that special Senate election for the retiring or the resigning Johnny Isakson is certainly going to be in January. And that other Georgia Senate race could also be January. So don't be surprised or shocked if Senate control

ultimately comes down to one of those two seats, which both could have runoffs in January. Wouldn't that be nice to extend the election by an additional two months? Oh, and also, South Carolina is going to be closer than it should. And so will Alaska. Those are two races. By the way, I just want you guys to Google Alaska Senate race. It's some wild shit going on up in Anchorage right now. I mean, completely wild shit. So that's also that. And then this is this is the key. The Liebermans always screw Democrats. That's just the way the Liebermans work. I think that you're going to have a race where Raphael Warnock in Georgia probably could get to 50 plus percent, but for Lieberman's son being one of the Democratic candidates and also Tarver and state Senator Tarver. So I think he's going to get the 47,

48 percent. And I think that those two ancillary candidates to get to a couple of percentage points will keep it, which will keep him from getting over 50% and cost Democrats a seat. Before we go, Harry's never been on this podcast before. And randomly, it's the week that the Patriots, the decrepit post-dynasty, things are heading really badly, Patriots are going into Buffalo,

the place that Tom Brady literally owned for two decades. And Buffalo is favored by three and a half. And I did million dollar picks before you guys came on. And Buffalo was one of my picks to beat the Patriots because I don't think the Patriots are good anymore. Harry, you never expected to see this in your lifetime. You know, my old line used to be the last time the Bills made the playoffs was

before my bar mitzvah. Obviously, that is no longer the case. And I will say the only memory of Tom Brady losing in New England was when they lost 31 to nothing to the Bills. I believe it was in 2003. Your Patriots let go of Lawyer Malloy, I believe. Oh, yeah. Sam Adams makes that interception rumble and tumble in the end zone. You're thinking, oh my God, this is a great Bills season. Like many others, it went up in flames. This is very surprising to see that

the Buffalo Bills are not just favored over the Patriots in this game, but favored to win the division. All I can say is it's about time. Bakar, you love this. I actually think the Patriots. I actually think the Patriots

are going to win the division and bounce back. I think Cam Newton is going to resurface. Oh, please. I think that the Dolphins and Bills will scrap around for some wild card spot as they always do.

But I mean, I just can't have faith in the quarterback from the university of Wyoming. Where is he from? Wyoming state, Wyoming, Wyoming state. He's a Bronco or something. I thought it was university of Wyoming. Whatever is from the,

I just think that I think cam Newton and the, and the defense are going to get on track. And I think this week you'll have a cam's going to put up 30 plus. And I think that's enough. I hope and pray you're right because he couldn't have been worse last week. And these athletes- Can he throw to the right side of the field? What is that? Can you tell me why he can't throw to the other side of the field? What is that about? Why can he only throw on one quarter? The part I don't understand, and I think they're still trying to figure this out, is athletes coming off of COVID. In some cases,

it really seems like a mess them up. Like Westbrook's been pretty open about post-COVID. Like he just didn't feel healthy and right. And it was tough for him to do weight training, all kinds of stuff. And he just didn't feel like

he was himself in the bubble. And I think we've seen that more and more. Cam looked like a shell of himself last week. It was concerning. He was skipping passes. He didn't want to run. He couldn't even get the ball. Yeah, he was skipping. I just feel like you'll of himself last week. It was concerning. He was skipping passes. He didn't want to run. He couldn't even get the ball. Yeah, he was skipping.

I just feel like you'll get a better Cam. And I think that at the end of the day, if it's a Cam Newton versus Josh Allen game, then Cam Newton will win that game any day of the week. Boy, my goodness. You give Josh Allen less respect than my mother oftentimes gives me. I mean, my goodness gracious.

Josh Allen is not a bad quarterback. He was very good at the beginning of the season. He was. He was okay enough last week against the Jets, which is kind of like saying I'm a good-looking person, you know, at a ugly person party. I mean, granted, they still won.

They still did what they needed to do. So, look, I feel good about the Bills. I'm not going to say that they're going to go win the Super Bowl. That's not what's going to happen this year. But I'll just end by saying, look, COVID is a very serious thing. And the fact that you've seen some of these players not be able to bounce back in the way that they do, I hate to be this pontification.

But this thing is serious. Wear a freaking mask, people. Yeah. Yeah, wear a mask. You can listen to Bakari's podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network. You had a good one today. Yeah, Michael Cohen

was on today. I had the best guest of anybody, including Harry and Bakari Sellers. And also, we have Ron Brownstein on Monday, and we're doing a live post- election special with the winning Ellie James Carville. Harry, anything to plug? Nah, not really.

I got nothing. No bills. All right. It was good seeing you guys. Thanks for coming on. I appreciate it. Shalom. All right, guys.

All right. Thanks to House. Thanks to Bakari. Thanks to Harry. Don't forget, two rewatchables. If you missed that on the rewatchables feed,

Rocky IV and The Exorcist. Don't forget to check out theringer.com this weekend. Don't forget to check out our newest podcast on Ringer FC, Righty's House with Ian Wright. That launched this week. If you like soccer, I would highly recommend that one.

And I'll be back Sunday night with the Cuz breaking down all of the week eight action. Week seven, week eight, whatever week it is, we'll break it down. See you then. I feel the air twisting on the wayside I'm a bruised son of a I don't have

the energy