The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 120: 2016 NFL Lines With Cousin Sal and Joe House

Episode Date: August 31, 2016

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal celebrate the 10-year anniversary of them guessing the NFL lines by bringing in Joe House to discuss the Patriots' 12-4 destiny, the Belichick-Hillary ...parlay of the decade (24:40), Brock Osweiler's hot hand in Houston (33:20), the putrid NFC East (43:50), and Russell Wilson's MVP potential (1:01:00), then wrap up with a roundup of odds and futures (1:05:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Today's very special NFL preview episode of the BS Podcast is brought to you by SeatGeek, our presenting sponsor and the only fan-friendly app for buying and selling tickets for sports and music. Just two taps on your phone, you can instantly buy SeatGeek tickets to an event and enter the event using your phone. No paper tickets. Drop your old ticket app and use one that's built for 2016. Again, do everything on your phone.
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Starting point is 00:00:52 We're also brought to you by my new HBO show. Any given Wednesday, we return on Wednesday, September 7th at 10 PM. One day before the NFL season begins. Needless to say, it will be a football episode. You can watch the first eight episodes and every bonus clip we've had so far on HBO Now, HBO Go, and HBO On Demand. Don't forget to check out my new website, The Ringer,
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Starting point is 00:01:34 All right, Soundhouse coming up. Let's go. Yeah. Wow. It's been a while. The cuz Cousin Sal Yeah
Starting point is 00:01:46 My long time friend We are back It's our 10th year It's our 10th NFL season Doing podcasts Really? Yeah What'd you get me?
Starting point is 00:01:54 I didn't get you anything What is that? A wedding anniversary It's like a silver Not silver Like a Copper anniversary Is it copper?
Starting point is 00:02:01 Something Alright We used to We used to jokingly Say that this would make A great radio show someday Us guessing the lines copper anniversary is it copper something all right we used to we used to jokingly say that this would make a great radio show someday us guessing the lines we'd call on sunday you'd call me on sunday nights after we worked together started working on the jimmy kimmel show right and we would guess the lines for that week's games and i always maintained it would make a radio show
Starting point is 00:02:20 and now here we are year 10 here we are radio there is no such thing as radio so we're doing everything's digital now we have five kids between us oh man i have two dogs did you get a dog no they're pushing me to get one you didn't replace carlos couldn't couldn't replace carlos we got to get the youngest mistake kid out of diapers first before we start cleaning the yard every day could it maybe brad could replace carlos our friend brad so we had our fantasy football draft we're by the way here's the schedule for this podcast we are going to get joe house on the line and we're going to make over under picks future picks um stupid bets like who's the first coach fired all that stuff it's all coming up but we had our fantasy football
Starting point is 00:03:01 draft last night right and i brought t, who's producing this podcast, actually. I just brought him because I needed help. I hadn't done any homework. And I also really wanted a witness. Yeah. It's just hard to describe what that room's like with all the characters in there. Right. And our friend Brad, who's been on this podcast before, took it to eight other levels.
Starting point is 00:03:21 I don't even know what to compare it to. Like Kobe's 81- game i don't what would you hit three pitchers of coke it's i mean he had three pitchers of coke yeah that's hard to do people at home like it's much more difficult than beer i think right to the carbonation and coke and he was on his third pitcher granted a quarter of a pitcher ended up all over his grid where he's trying to keep track of where his computer everyone was drafting but it was still a good effort and then you know he was off to the bathroom and he's moaning and just making noise it was very hard for me to listen to our auctioneer mike august rattle off you know mispronounced names the whole night i was like i
Starting point is 00:03:59 was really confused as to what was going on yeah james tate instead of jordan like james jordan and like he anything with a j he would just screw up like august but brad had so much coke that he left at one point he went to the bathroom which was in earshot and he was moaning like he i actually thought he had been assaulted yeah why does he moan what's he moaning about when you say he had so much coke it's it's the good kind of coke but the moans would lead you to think that it was the bad the bad stuff that but yeah i don't know he just was he like trying to take a dump like what was going on he's just like his heart is always fighting against him and you know he's drinking soda and eating wings and uh it's just a mess
Starting point is 00:04:40 he was very upset about the night of so we got to to hear about that. Damoshek interrupted him as he was excoriating the season finale, and then he got mad at Damoshek. That was certainly worth the interruption. Way to pop my bubble. Damoshek brought up the possibility of having a seven-point field goal. He's like, oh, some guy's going to have a 70-yard field goal. So you have to, he's like, oh, yeah, right, 70, yeah, that's going to happen. That was worth it.
Starting point is 00:05:04 Thanks for bringing that up. We're all smarter now. Seven-point field goal. Great. But the best thing is, like, Brad was supposed to – he won the league last year. So his duty is to vote somebody out. Oh, we should explain that. Well, people probably know if they've heard this, but every year the winner – we have 11 teams show up.
Starting point is 00:05:21 We leave with 10. Somebody gets voted out. The champ gets to vote someone out paul cohurst had voted out brad two different years two out of three years yeah and the second time he did it there was real violence in the air it was bad there was fear there was a coke whipped across the room right and brad loves his coke yeah he did yeah and uh and so once he won the league he was like don't even show up yeah it was that was it there's no mystery this year there's no getting cute you're just getting out there's no story right
Starting point is 00:05:50 but paul did show up and he got berated i think he thought it was gonna be fun but he's like you're a douche get out of here nobody likes you you're supposed to be clever about how you vote somebody out maybe last year i made a puzzle and whoever finished the puzzle first one or some other even even if it's one in a hundred have him go through the ringer uh and just see see if he could maybe get in but no brad was like get out of here and don't even say anything back because you're not clever and you haven't been clever in 40 years so it's not gonna happen now then he left he's like i wasn't even giving that guy a story it's like what's the story i heard you got voted out what was the story no there's no story what's the story? I heard you got voted out. What was the story? No, there's no story. There's no story at all.
Starting point is 00:06:27 You got voted out. Oh, he's so out of his mind. He was so mad. And Tate here, you brought Tate, and Tate was mouth agape the whole time, right? Like, you couldn't. Yeah. He was just giggling. He was surprised.
Starting point is 00:06:40 He was frightened a couple times. Did you even know Jon Hamm was in the room, Tate? Like, there was, like, celebrities there. Yeah, he didn't say much. No. Brad took over. Jon Hamm was serious a couple times. Did you even know Jon Hamm was in the room, Tate? There was celebrities there. Brad took over. Jon Hamm was serious. He was very focused. We had Ezekiel Elliott. I spent $52 on.
Starting point is 00:06:56 You did, right? I wanted Gronk and I wanted Ezekiel Elliott. I told Tate in the car, I'm getting those two guys. I don't really care what the price is. I thought it would be $90 combined. It ended up being $102. I don't care. Those are the two guys I wanted. I have two of the best seven guys in fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:07:12 You went about $140, $150 of your $200 before you picked a receiver. I had 15 out of my roster spots before I even picked a quarterback. I didn't know what you were doing. You scared me there. I didn't really know what I was doing either. I thought you had a plan, and then I gradually realized you didn't.
Starting point is 00:07:29 No, I didn't. But you got Matt Ryan for $2, and then you have the Dallas combo. That's right, yeah. Dak and Romo. That'll be great. So America wants to know your thoughts on Romo. I'm very upset. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:07:41 I'm very upset. Yeah, it's, you know, I mean, we met the guy. You know him. Yeah, you're friendly with him now. It's sad when you know him, and he was very excited. Yeah. Yeah. It's, you know, I mean, we met the guy, you know him. And it's sad when you know him. And he was very excited. I saw him this summer. Very excited about the upcoming year. He feels like they could have made the Super Bowl last year if he hadn't gotten hurt.
Starting point is 00:07:54 He's always very positive. But the number 14 and two was thrown out there. And it's like, great. And I was like, what about the defense? He worries like, no, the offense is going to be so good. It doesn't matter. And he really had me believing. And then this stupid thing. He's the only injury. me believing and then this stupid thing he's the only injury well i guess before
Starting point is 00:08:07 today he was the only injury in preseason it's just in fact we lost our backup callan moore like i don't think yeah i don't think a team's ever lost two quarterbacks in the same preseason how long is callan moore out for i think he's done too oh my god i don't know you know one of my predictions for this year was going to be that he couldn't get through the season and i and i knew how dare you when i made it the prediction your feelings would be hurt right and you'd take it personally i just felt like his body had undergone too much right and well with thoughts like that i don't think you're gonna make it through the season well he ended up getting hurt on a fluke play, which wasn't totally a fluke because, first of all, just go down. It's the preseason.
Starting point is 00:08:48 Where are you scrambling? You're trying to change it from third and eight to third and seven? Just go down. Nobody cares. He should have probably been instructed not to scramble. And then certain quarterbacks, the hits that he takes. Weinberger was saying this the other day, who works here um who's the president of BSLG but he was saying like she said like that the reason the Mannings played so many games is they
Starting point is 00:09:10 never took stupid hits like that in August right you know he's got this crazy defense running around they're dying to take shots I don't know I don't know I thought it was stupid but I also think like that maybe it's just in my head. Now it made you sad. Maybe I shouldn't have brought this up. I'm going to have to leave for a while. No, the previous, like, surgeries, that was a legitimate hit. I think anyone, I would have taken anyone out six to ten weeks. Totally.
Starting point is 00:09:36 Right? Yeah. So I kind of feel good about that if you can feel good about it. I actually wonder why more quarterbacks don't have separated shoulders and broken collarbones. It's just the law of physics of the very hard ground. Right. And the 290 pound guy throwing you into that ground just seems like more bad things should happen. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:52 It's like basketball players should twist their ankle. Yeah. Or there I go bringing up basketball again. I know. You want to talk? Screw NFL. I can't go 10 minutes. Season's less than two months away.
Starting point is 00:10:03 No, we need to stay focused just for an hour on this. I did a ton of homework yesterday and today. I'm actually semi-prepared. We're taping this late Wednesday afternoon in beautiful Southern California. Teddy Bridgewater goes down. And they're like, there's an ambulance. His teammates are throwing their helmets. His teammates are upset.
Starting point is 00:10:28 It's like, what kind of injury was this? Have they said what the injury was yet? He break his leg? They said severe knee injury. Okay. I mean, they haven't confirmed it. Well, he's done, right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:38 Yeah. So it was like a Sean Livingston type injury? I guess we'll find out. By the time you guys hear this, we'll know what the injury was. Yeah, please tell us if you hear this in the next couple days. Yeah, tell us in the future. I didn't love the Vikings anyway. I didn't either.
Starting point is 00:10:53 I thought they kind of overachieved a little last year. And then that playoff game was so weird. It was so cold. I think that was just one of those stupid freezing weather games. And I thought there were so many people blowing smoke up their butts. They seemed to me like a possible regression team. And now with Sean Hill. Was he ever on your team?
Starting point is 00:11:12 No, we didn't have that one. I don't think we've had him either, but most of the teams have. Yeah, right. And they didn't do so well, right? Unless they do like, no, they didn't do that well. But unless they do a Kaepernick trade, now they just stack the line on Peterson, right? I think they were going't do that well. But unless they do a Kaepernick trade, now they just stack the line on Peterson, right? I think they were going to do that anyway.
Starting point is 00:11:28 Yeah, but now they're really going to stack it. They had trouble throwing downfield and stuff like that. But yeah, I think they're going to be like the Broncos with a super front seven, low-scoring games, and maybe Sean Hill has to bail them out a few times, but it's going to be tough to win these games. Great defense. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:44 Great coach. One of my favorite coaches. I don't like most coaches, but I actually like Mike Zimmer. out a few times but it's gonna be tough to win these games great defense yeah great coach one of my favorite coaches i don't like most coaches but i actually like mike zimmer and they beefed up the running game at the uh receiving game yep laquan treadwell who's on my fantasy team i was excited about that uh digs i don't know maybe sean hill could he i i can't is sean hill capable winning 11 games like it seems inconceivable and That's what you have to do to win that division, for sure, I think. We should call house. Let's do it. Let's call house and let's get this going.
Starting point is 00:12:11 Before we do, though, Tate, call house. Yeah, I'm calling house. All right. As Tate's calling house, Sal, you Sling TV? Familiar with Sling TV's work? Oh, I am a little bit, yeah. Yeah. Monday Night Football starting soon. Everyone out there, the cord cutters, as they call them. sling tv familiar with sling tv's work a little bit yeah yeah uh monday night football starting
Starting point is 00:12:25 soon everyone out there the cord cutters as they call them yeah not our generation we just pay for stuff the younger generation is much smarter uh i hope you're not going to spend the next four months hoping a friend will invite you over or saving your money to splurge on a night of lonely sports bar drinks that's what robert maze used to. Really? He used to go to sports bars and just get cheap beer and watch the cable because he was a court cutter. You have a better, cheaper option. It's Sling TV. The best way to watch live TV on your turf for just $20 a month.
Starting point is 00:12:56 You get 20 live channels. You get more than that, actually, including ESPN, TNT, AMC, CNN, Adult Swim, IFC, other top networks. No installation, no extra gear, no annual contracts. An easy online cancellation. You just need an internet connection. You have an internet connection. I do.
Starting point is 00:13:13 I think I can make that work. Start watching for seven days free at sling.com slash Bill Simmons. Get Sling TV on your favorite device. Get ready for Monday Night Football. Restrictions do apply. All right, here's Joe House. Joe House. Right now, Joe House, how are you? Yeah!
Starting point is 00:13:29 This is our second attempt at your intro since you crossed all lines in the first one. That was a line crosser? I don't know. I thought the ringer had balls. We also have taste.
Starting point is 00:13:45 We also have sponsors. We also have sponsors. How dare you? Last time we saw you was in the city of Las Vegas, Nevada. We were with Sal. Speaking of taste. We gambled all night. You guys were the first to bet. I stayed up until 6.30.
Starting point is 00:14:01 I just wanted to give a shout out. Age 46, still banging out. 6.30 Vegas nights and losing money. a shout out. Age 46, still banging out, 6.30 Vegas nights and losing money. That's pretty good. Yeah, not bad. I felt it for next week. I mean, you don't leave a table. That's not, like people say, I didn't leave the table all night. Bill
Starting point is 00:14:15 does not leave a table for a work day's worth of time. Eight hours. From like, you know, 8 to 6.30. If I like the table, table in there. And it's crazy. Yeah. My favorite part of the trip was Bill being
Starting point is 00:14:32 adamant that we have a very quick dinner, an in-and-out dinner. And then we go to Nobu and we sit down and they put in front of us the 12-course omakase. And he takes the lead and says, that's what we want. We want the 12-course Omakase. Yeah. And he takes the lead. He says, that's what we want. We want the 12-course.
Starting point is 00:14:47 It was great. It was great. I loved it. He wanted 90 seconds of course, though. That was the thing. Because he wanted to go from 7 p.m. to 6 in the morning instead of 8 p.m. to 6 in the morning. That's the difference. Yeah, it dashed my plans of being at the tables by 9 o'clock.
Starting point is 00:15:03 I'm glad Vegas, you know, the older we get, Vegas is still Vegas. It's still good. And Bill was mad at us, House. I figured, you know, you needed to pick me up. We had certainly eaten enough that night. But then we went off and bought pizza. And we showed up at the blackjack table eating pizza. That upset me.
Starting point is 00:15:17 After this giant meal. I just felt like he disgraced the sushi meal. I did, too. That's what we tried to do. He was already mad at me. I got a massage at the too. That's what we tried to do. He was already mad at me. I got a massage at the table. That's true. House got a massage at the table.
Starting point is 00:15:31 This lady's walking around going, massage, massage, and House goes, yeah, and turns the chair around. What was it, like $3 a minute? It wasn't quite that. Well, yeah, it was that expensive. It was so worth it.
Starting point is 00:15:43 The pizza was $16. A slice. It was crazy worth it. The pizza was $16. A slice. It was crazy. All I know is... I'd already had this disgusted face from the massage. The pizza was fine. It's hard to believe the table didn't catch fire when one guy was getting a freaking massage. His back turned.
Starting point is 00:15:59 That's old school Vegas. Hard to believe the energy wasn't there. I don't remember that scene in Swingers. All right. We're going to go through the divisions. Now, normally we go through, we like the bets about who's going to make the playoffs or not, and we couldn't find those on a reputable website. House sent us a website that I was afraid to click on.
Starting point is 00:16:18 I thought my computer was going to crash. I think you started that website this morning. It was a regular old scoresandodds.com. Oh, okay. There we go. That sounded like a plug. Was that a paid plug? What just happened?
Starting point is 00:16:32 Unfortunately, no. Congratulations on the new venture house. Make sure you put in code Joe House. So do you want to go AFC first? Yeah, let's go AFC first. So we'll just do the divisions each one i'm going to give the odds we're going to say what we think now this is an important distinction for the people out there we're not saying who we think is going to win the division we're going to say
Starting point is 00:16:53 what we think is the best bet best value right best value for each division so we're going to go through the division bets and then for each one we're all going to give our favorite wins over under. And how the wins work is Vegas gives, you guys know this, but. Yeah, come on. So New England is 10 and a half wins, and they give odds on either side. If you bet the over, it's minus 140. You've got to bet 140 to win 100. If you bet the under, it's plus 120. You've got to bet 100.
Starting point is 00:17:22 You win 120 if you win it. Right. So that's when we say 10 and a half, it's got to be over under that number. All right. AFC East. The Pats are minus 225. Buffalo's plus 700. The Jets are plus 700.
Starting point is 00:17:33 Miami's plus 800. To me, this is gambling. It's meant for people to lose. It's the reason Vegas keeps building casinos. It's the reason we have Gamblers Anonymous. Right. It's the reason the Gamblers always win in movies. And yet every year the Pats win the AFC East.
Starting point is 00:17:49 And we stare at it every year and we wonder if we should bet on it. And then we do and we win. Minus 225. Just, House, you go first. What team botches that bet for the Patriots? It's not a team. I mean, the answer is... It's got to be a team.
Starting point is 00:18:06 What's the matter with him? Brady. What? Go ahead. I'm sorry. Something happens to the Patriots. It's not that a team in the AFC East is going to rise up and steal the throne from the Patriots. It's that something happens to Brady or Belichick that completely derails them.
Starting point is 00:18:26 To Belichick? What are you insinuating, House? What do you mean to Belichick? What's he going to have, a heart attack? What could happen to him? He doesn't play. He doesn't play. Nothing's going to happen to him.
Starting point is 00:18:37 That sweatshirt with the arms cut off, I don't like that look. It's early onset. It could be an early onset issue with Belichick. All right, so let's say they know how old he is. But let's say the Pats have the year from now. Let's say the four games, they go 1-3. Right. Without Brady.
Starting point is 00:18:52 Brady comes back, they go 9-7. Can anyone else in the AFC East even go 10-6? 1-3 is your cutoff. If it's any worse than that, you're kind of in trouble. If it's any better than that, it's gravy with Garoppolo, I would say. But minus 225. The only team that I would say that could come anywhere near nine wins is the Jets, and I don't like them for nine wins.
Starting point is 00:19:13 Oh, see, I think it would be the Bills. I would say the Bills. But I also think the Bills ran into a lot of trouble this offseason. They lost Lawson and Raglan, and Darius was suspended. I wouldn't bet an over with them. The Darius thing hurts. Yeah. I think the Patriots at minus 225 is nice because, like you said,
Starting point is 00:19:30 heading into week 16 or week 17, you're going to have a shot at it. So go against it if you're not. Otherwise, they could be up by two games by then. That's true. Their last couple games are week 16 is the Jets and week 17 is at Miami. So you have a chance to go against that. The other thing is, you know, I don't think they're going to go 1-3, first of all. I think I'd be disappointed if they – I'm hoping for 3-1.
Starting point is 00:19:54 I'd be disappointed if they weren't at least 2-2. But they have at Arizona on a Sunday night, week one. Right. And then home for the next three. Home for Miami. Home for Houston on a Thursday night. It's big. And Houston, the game before that
Starting point is 00:20:09 is playing... Hold on. Look at you. You really did do your homework. At least for the Patriots. So Houston's home for KC and then four days later is playing at New England on Thursday. That's a tough game. From Brock Osweiler. And then they're home for Buffalo. So that should be
Starting point is 00:20:26 2-2. I think you can get to 2-2. We're going 12-4. You feel very 2-2. House, we go 12-4 every year. I'm not worried. But you would like to have a running game these first four games. Tom Brady was your leading rusher in the AFC championship game with 13 yards. And you take a hit with Deion Lewis.
Starting point is 00:20:41 You'd like to get, you know, you don't want to have too much squarely on Garoppolo's shoulders. We're breaking out the double tight end offense that I've been waiting my whole Brady life to have. Martellus, Ben, and Brock. One of those guys is in jail now. No, but that's the thing is there's this misnomer that he was like this blocking tight end.
Starting point is 00:21:00 He was an H-back. You had the double tight end, which got turned into a double homicide. That's not untrue. But, yeah, so out of the other three, I would say I think Buffalo has the best chance. But they've had the offseason from hell. It's been real bad. It's been real bad. We're going to get to Buffalo.
Starting point is 00:21:20 I'm on the opposite side, other and opposite side. I have a preseason perfect parlay that includes the Bills that goes dramatically in the other direction. So with the Bills under? No, he likes them over. I'm taking the Bills under. I'm taking Rex Ryan to get fired first. I'm taking a parlay of the New England over and the Bills under.
Starting point is 00:21:52 I mean, I am working a Bills under angle like CeCe at Spearman Rhino worked over my back. Oh, my goodness. You made Joe Foote this laugh. I'm not against the Bills prediction. And the rec says the first coach fired, which we're going to get to later. I did have that. What was that, Sal? 16-1.
Starting point is 00:22:12 Oh, yeah, 16-1. Really? You have him, huh? I like Mike McCarthy at 80-1. No. 80-1? There's not an 80-1 chance Mike McCarthy, they go 1-3, and then he gets fired? Has that been updated since the Bridgewater injury?
Starting point is 00:22:28 Oh, that's true. It's going to be tough for them to blow that that blow that division so what over under do you like in the afc i think there's only one first of all don't if you're looking for overs the afc east does not stay away because they play two teams uh they play the nfc west and the afc north both those divisions sent two teams to the playoffs last year so tough schedules for the whole division but my under is the new york jets under seven and a half wins six starters over 30 years old their first six games i've never heard a schedule this tough first six cincinnati at buffalo at kansas city seattle at new england i'm sorry at pittsburgh and at arizona On a Monday night. That's insane. And they're on a short week four times. Six of their first nine are on the road. That's tough.
Starting point is 00:23:15 And I think the defenses figure out the Fitzpatrick scheme. I go way under there. And they're going against the NFC West. The whole NFC East is. So you know they're going to have three tough games. Yeah. Three good defenses. And the AFC North. West, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh. And the AFC North, who has since Pittsburgh.
Starting point is 00:23:25 And the other thing is they didn't luck out. They didn't catch Garoppolo. Right. They missed Garoppolo. I agree with you. If I had to bet on any over-under, I would bet the Pats 10.5. I'd just be shocked if they didn't go 11-5. You'd go over.
Starting point is 00:23:38 Oh, 100%. So one and three, you have to go 10 and three. I'm not even being i'm not even two i'm not even being arrogant pats fan about i know you love when i'm an arrogant yeah i just think like until it doesn't happen you have to assume it's gonna keep happening right last year we had it at minus 140 when when it was assumed that brady was suspended and then he wasn't obviously suspended and this feels like the same thing the four game suspensions thrown off all these odds.
Starting point is 00:24:08 And meanwhile, it's like Garoppolo's, if you've watched him, he's really good at throwing 11-yard passes. He throws tight line drives to tight ends. That's what he does. House, you don't care either way. Do you agree that it's stupid to bet against the Patriots until we actually see some real signs of decay? Just agree, House. Just agree so we can move on.
Starting point is 00:24:26 I don't think it's stupid. I'm going to actually allocate some of my hard-earned capital on New England. Minus 225 to win the division. New England on the over, 10.5. I still demonstrate it otherwise. Sal, tell America what bet we made, the parlay. He was there. I know. Oh, House knows. I see. I, the parlay. He was there. I know.
Starting point is 00:24:46 Oh, I'll tell. Oh, House knows. I see. I'm trying to think what it was now. Was it just New England to win the division and Hillary to win the presidency? You're damn right it was. Belichick and Hillary, a team I can believe in. Yeah, we have the only Pats, AFCS, East slash Hillary Clinton presidential bet.
Starting point is 00:25:03 And your quarterback doesn't even like Hillary. This is going to be interesting. I know. I know. He copied her hairstyle, which I'm still trying to figure out. He did. Let's go to the AFC. We're all in on that.
Starting point is 00:25:12 Yeah, I know. Nice bet. Great bet. Are people going to be mad that we don't mention the Dolphins at all? No. Let's ignore them. Okay. We'll move on.
Starting point is 00:25:18 Let's ignore them. Adam Gase first. They're like the guy in your fantasy draft who has no idea how the salary cap works. I know. They do come out swinging though Every year It's like you realize you only have $200 to spend You have $189 spent You have 11 spots left
Starting point is 00:25:33 AFC North I just was going to make fun of Ryan Tannehill On a no huddle offense that's all Well that's the thing they're like oh Ryan Tannehill It's like no We've all seen Ryan Tano. Just stop it. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:25:46 AFC North, Pittsburgh's plus 115, Cincinnati plus 200, Baltimore plus 350, Cleveland 25-1. Always bringing up the rear. Really good. The Cleveland Browns. I think every year we're flummoxed by Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, or Baltimore. And Baltimore's out of it this year. But do you guys, if you had to pick, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati? I would go Cincinnati.
Starting point is 00:26:09 I like them at 2-1. I think the Le'Veon Bell thing is not great. I think Martavis Bryant thing is not great. Not great. And I did like Pittsburgh going into the year. And then I looked at this. And there's really no reason Cincinnati should be worse off than they are. Yeah, they lost like Jones and Sanu at the wide out position but this tyler boyd's
Starting point is 00:26:28 supposed to be dynamite is on my team i like their schedule yep you stole them from me yeah they keep resigning like pac-man jones like guys like that leaders like that and it just it just works out for them and they also house remember the playoff game when they had the game one and then the stupid linebacker did stupid things and then all of a sudden they lost the playoff game when they had the game won and then the stupid linebacker did stupid things and then all of a sudden they lost the playoff game and changed the AFC playoff picture and it led to my team not making the Super Bowl? Remember that?
Starting point is 00:26:52 I do remember that, yes. Cincinnati's good. They were good at football last year. I keep track. We always talk about keep track of legitimate wins versus either-or wins and then losses. They were 9-1-6 last year. They only had one legitimate loss.
Starting point is 00:27:07 They had nine legitimate wins and then six games that could have gone either way. Well, and they had McCarron in there, and he almost won some of those tough games. I actually got to say I don't understand why they're not the favorites in this division. I don't either. It scares me a little. I think it's backed me off a little bit. House, do you think Vegas feels like not having Martavis Bryant on the roster is actually good for the Steelers? Because maybe he was stoned all the time and he was always offering the other people hits off the vape.
Starting point is 00:27:34 And now that that's not, that's the only explanation I have. That should make them worse. People love Pittsburgh. That's all. Vegas just sets the number to make sure they get the action on Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh is one of those America's teams. I love Cincinnati also for all the reasons that you and the Cubs just went through. The bet that I'm going to make on Cincinnati is the over, which I'm seeing at minus 105, a delightful price.
Starting point is 00:27:59 Over 9.5 for Cincinnati. I'm in on that. They were 12-4 last year. McCarron running around at the end there. That's a good drop-off, 12-9 if you want to take it under. You're really risking it there.
Starting point is 00:28:13 I think over 9.5 is the way to go. Here's the other thing. Sal, no offense. I mean no offense whatsoever with the following comment. The AFC North plays the NFC East. I don't think the NFC East is very good. Mm-hmm. So that's good for Cincinnati.
Starting point is 00:28:30 Their four games are against, you know, they could be going against some of these other divisions. On the road at Cowboys and Giants, yeah. They have some tough road games. They have a London game against... Yeah, I hate the London games. Yeah. They have a...
Starting point is 00:28:43 They're at Houston, they're at Dallas, they're at New England, and they're at Pittsburgh, and they have the stupid London games. They're at Houston, they're at Dallas, they're at New England, and they're at Pittsburgh, and they have the stupid London game. Those are their four toughest ones. I'd be shocked if they didn't go 10-6. And I actually liked some of the stuff they did, and their defensive line's still good. I don't know. Is that your over? Yeah, I would go over with them.
Starting point is 00:29:00 I have no feel for the Ravens. I was reading one thing on ESPN's NFL Nation. They had the best thing and the worst thing about each team. And for the Ravens. I was reading one thing on ESPN's NFL Nation. It had the best thing and the worst thing about each team. And for the Ravens, it was special teams. So I'm like, oh, sounds like 5-11. That was the best thing? Yeah, a great kicker and putter.
Starting point is 00:29:14 Oh, good. Okay. Good luck with that. Yeah, 5-11 last year, and they jacked that up to 8-1⁄2. I don't think you could take over there. That's really rough. Their last four were at New England, Philly, at Pittsburgh, and at Cincy. But my over-under, I'm going Browns under.
Starting point is 00:29:29 I'm saying they're under four and a half. There's always a 3-13 team. There's always two of them. This is going to be one of them. They bring the baseball guy in there, DePodesto in there. This is a rebuilding year. Every year is a rebuilding year for the Browns. Their bye is Week 13, which you may not even have a bye.
Starting point is 00:29:44 Forget it. They're going to be so out of it 13, which you may not even have a bye. Forget it. They're going to be so out of it by then. We may not have a country by week 13. President Trump might have eliminated football. In our parlay, yeah. And they'll be 2-10 by then. I go under 4.5 there.
Starting point is 00:30:01 I was looking at their schedule, and it's actually a shockingly hard schedule for a team that is always in last place. They don't have a lot of easy games. I agree. And five of the first seven are on the road. Let's give House 30 seconds to talk about his feelings about RG3 and the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, so Bob Griffin, you know, I was prepared to take the over with Cleveland until Bob took a direction that I don't like, I don't approve of. Bob made great fanfare of his marriage when he arrived here in Washington, D.C. to a college sweetheart.
Starting point is 00:30:27 And the two of them had a little boy, I believe. I'm not sure whether he's even one years old. As the summer progresses and the stories about Bob Griffin's re-emergence, his possible ascendance, his revisiting the skill set that had him on the tip of everybody's tongue his rookie season, the news is out that he is leaving his wife and his brand-new baby for another blonde bombshell. And this girl is on his arm on Instagram. TMZ is tracking him around. So I'm out on the RG3, and I'm out on the Browns. But you're in on monogamy and marriage.
Starting point is 00:31:12 I'm happily married. That's great. And I prefer monogamy. Listen, people come for this football podcast for your thoughts on monogamy and marriage. I'm glad. So you think this is bad karma? They need a TMZ-less quarterback. I don't know what they have to do to get there,
Starting point is 00:31:28 but they're on quite a run now with this. What kind of karma are you risking with dumping your wife for a blonde bombshell and then also being on the Browns? Right, exactly. How does the karma work now? Do the Cavs eliminate the Browns' karma or do the Browns have their own karma?
Starting point is 00:31:44 I think your quarterback did something similar, but it kind of worked out. Oh, wow. They were broken up. That's not pretending. They were broken up. Come on. I'm talking about Jimmy Garoppolo. Oh, Jimmy.
Starting point is 00:31:57 Have you seen Jimmy? He's so handsome. Is he? Such a handsome quarterback. Is he going to be your crush? No, it's just a very handsome guy. I think handsome people can lead a football team. They were saying the same thing about Matt Castle five years ago.
Starting point is 00:32:11 Yeah, we went 11-5 with Matt Castle. That's unbelievable. AFC South. Even the offshore casinos don't know what to do with this. Indianapolis. Do we really have to talk about the AFC South? We'll brush it over. Indianapolis plus 180. Houston plus 220, Jacksonville plus 260.
Starting point is 00:32:29 There's some Jacksonville buzz, which I'm enjoying. And then Tennessee's plus 800. I actually like Houston. I like Osweiler, and I don't know if I'm tainted by that Sunday night game when he just destroyed the Pats, but I think he's competent. I think he's better than Hoyer, and if I had a gun to my head, I would pick them, but I would not bet on any of these teams. What do you think, Sal? I think we're going to learn a lot from the Texans in that Week 3 game against the Patriots. If they can't go on the road and beat Jimmy Garoppolo
Starting point is 00:32:55 with that defense, then they're going to have trouble. They play a first play schedule. See, I'm leery of teams that play a first play schedule and weren't that dominant last year, and they kind of were lucky to win the division. Their road games are New England, Minnesota, Green Bay, Oakland, and Denver. They're on a short week
Starting point is 00:33:15 four times. I don't know. Osweiler has a little over 600 snaps. I don't know that I trust them over, and I think eight and a half is a big number. I would go under. That's my under for the division. What do you think, S? I like them slightly over. I'll hit them at nine wins again.
Starting point is 00:33:30 I like them to win the division again. Mainly an anti-indie point of view. I think the Colts are going to stink again this year. I don't think they did anything to shore up the offensive line the the offensive line and i think poor andrew luck is in for another round of beatings this this season so nine wins for houston and plus 220 to win the division is the way i would go i'm i i hate the cult so i'm the wrong person to ask yeah from years of peyton manning and then the fact that they were the rats with the flake eight which turned out not to even be a scandal and yet somehow was with that said their defense is terrible saying this they have the worst gm in
Starting point is 00:34:11 the league yeah they're terrible at drafting players they're terrible at paying the right amounts for free agents they haven't had a 100 yard rusher in 56 games. Their offensive line always sucks. Andrew Luck gets pounded and actually got hurt last year. Yeah. And they were going to fire their coach up until week 17, then all of a sudden you got an extension. Like, that team's a mess.
Starting point is 00:34:35 How are they the favorites in that division? I think it's ludicrous. I don't get it. I think they flipped a coin or a four-sided coin for this one. But I just don't know who else to take. Like, I don't like the Texans. You guys like the Texans. The Jags, they're
Starting point is 00:34:47 the sweetheart of the division. Everybody's darling. I don't know. Very young. I like Houston. I think Osweiler is going to be good. I would go I wouldn't bet on anything in this division. So let's move on. Do you agree, House? Stay away from the AFC South. Stay away.
Starting point is 00:35:04 Tate, you agree with that? Tate nods sadly. Team Titans, though. AFC West. Yeah, the Titans, I guess if you're going to say, who's my long shot, my stupid long shot bet? I just want to bet on somebody with ridiculous odds and hope they win. You might as well throw $100 down on the Titans plus $800 to win the division
Starting point is 00:35:24 because they're not any better or worse than any of those other teams yeah not bad another week uh by week of 13 which is ridiculous mario has trouble throwing deep but i don't like that coach yeah afc west denver plus 200 kc plus 200 oakland plus 280 the chargers getting some tiny bit of sleeper buzz at plus 750. Not reflected in that sleeper buzz. Why aren't the Chiefs the best team? I think they are. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:52 I really do. I think they're a 12 or 13 win team. I think this is the year where, you know, they have years where they're 8-1 and they can't finish it off in the playoffs. I think they go far this year. I don't like when we agree on all of our really yeah we well i guess we disagreed on houston yeah we did indianapolis i i just think casey's good and chiefs i just think they should be the favorite in the division trevor simeon come on yeah and like the raiders like that that number is like everybody's betting the raiders
Starting point is 00:36:21 everybody loves them they have five 1 p.m. games. I do like the Raiders. Three of their first four on the road. It's tough. They lost leaders, Tuck and Woodson. Obviously, they scored in free agency, but I don't know. That's a high over on their 8.5 for them. House? The Chargers are my dark horse, long shot.
Starting point is 00:36:49 It's not really rational, but I like their over 7.5 is minus 105, plus 300 to make the playoffs. I'm not looking at them to win the division because I don't think they can jump both Denver and the Chiefs. But the Chargers, 10 of 12, their losses last year were one-possession games. I like bringing in Travis Benjamin. If their secondary can stay healthy, Jason Barrett and Brandon Flowers, that's as good a secondary as any you find in the AFC. So I like the Chargers in this season when they're kind of playing for their franchise life.
Starting point is 00:37:18 They want to stay in San Diego. The people of San Diego want them there. I'm going to put a little action on San Diego just because I like the odds. But I don't, you know, I like them at kind of 9 or 10 wins. Wow. I like the Chiefs. Fourth place schedule also for San Diego. Four and 12
Starting point is 00:37:36 last year and they're over under 7.5. I will say Rivers, Ken Wisenhunt's back in the offensive coordinator. Rivers was his best in 2013 under Wisenhunt. Ken Wisenhunt after back in the offensive coordinator. Rivers was his best in 2013 under Wisenhunt. Ken Wisenhunt after just a sterling track record in Tennessee. But that's what happens. They're better as coordinators.
Starting point is 00:37:52 It's an abomination. I know. Kansas City last year, 11 legitimate wins. 11 wins where they convincingly won the game. I liked them. I just think the Pats were a bad matchup for them. And even in that game, they had their moments. It wasn't a blowout.
Starting point is 00:38:11 Yeah, they lingered. Listen, no running back could get hurt and kill them. Right. Alex Smith is finding receivers. Offensively, it's nice. They signed three of the last five free agents, Derek Johnson, Tom Bohal, and Howard. I think they're in good shape there. Guys, I'm about to go on a rant.
Starting point is 00:38:29 It's going to get a little bitter in here. What is it? I just want to remind everyone what a garbage season Denver had last year and that they were the worst Super Bowl champions we've ever had. They played 16 regular season games last year and had four legitimate wins. Peyton Manning pulled football wins, not even just out of his asshole. Like, he put his whole arm in his body and reached into his intestines, like where they go when you're getting a colonic,
Starting point is 00:38:56 and pulled wins out of his, like, not even, what's the intestine above the other intestine? Well, I mean, I think even further up. Maybe even in his lungs. He pulled wins out of his lungs. Esophagus? To go to the playoffs, who's the Steelers running back who's probably now out of the league? The Steelers are driving for the go-ahead touchdown.
Starting point is 00:39:18 The game's over because Peyton Manning, all he's doing is throwing lob passes to five people at the same time. Guy fumbles. They somehow sneak by that. Cincinnati knocks itself out of the playoffs because of the Burr effect. Right. And then the Patriots in that AFC title game, which I may or may not have watched again during the offseason just to get mad all over again.
Starting point is 00:39:38 We did 90 things wrong in that game. We played the worst possible game we've ever played. We did not get a break. And we still almost won. And Brady missed a wide-open Gronkowski on the safety to tie the game. We played the worst possible game we've ever played. We did not get a break and we still almost won and Brady missed a wide open ground cast game in the safety to tie the game. Manny made two throws
Starting point is 00:39:50 the whole game. And then in the Super Bowl, the defense was awesome. We bet on it. We jumped on them in that point. Clearly, greater forces were at work. But I just don't understand
Starting point is 00:40:01 how they're going to be as good this year as they were last year. Everything went right for them last year. Every single thing. Yeah. They want to be further along in the quarterback game than they are right now.
Starting point is 00:40:09 But there's something even happened week 17 for them to get that one seed. Who had something weird happen? Something weird. It was four months of it. Every week I'd come on the podcast and complain about it. I know. I was like, I've never seen a horseshoe season in the history of football like this it's bad i mean look luck's part of the game they were the better team in the super bowl their defense was awesome their defense is going to be very good again yeah it's
Starting point is 00:40:33 going to be one of those things they'll score 16 and you know they just have to they have to score 16 to win i think a lot of these games i've just been following football for my entire life and usually when you have a season like that it doesn't't transfer to the next season, that kind of luck. So I like KC plus 200, and I like the over for 9.5 wins. House, I disagree on San Diego for this reason. Isn't Mike McCoy still their coach? A leading contender for first to be fired. That is definitely the case.
Starting point is 00:41:04 I don't even know if I would hire, like we need a podcast, we need another podcast producer right now. Joe Fuentes and Tate, working big hours. We need somebody a little creative. If Mike McCoy is like, I'm ready to lead the Chargers,
Starting point is 00:41:15 I want to throw myself into the podcast business and learn how to produce podcasts. I'd be like, I don't know, Mike. You can't even manage the clock. I'm honestly not sure if you can handle my podcast. We'd be doing podcasts for six hours. You can't even manage the clock. I'm honestly not sure if you can handle my podcast. We'd be doing podcasts for six hours. You wouldn't even tell us.
Starting point is 00:41:28 You can't even handle a two-minute drill. You're going to produce a podcast? Yeah. That's how I feel about Mike McCoy. That's tough. I think he's way, way, way underqualified for that job. I do not believe in him. That was a long shot bet.
Starting point is 00:41:41 Also, one more thing about them. Really depressing football situation. With where they're going to end up. I thought they were signing autographs until four in the morning last year. I thought they knew they were gone. Every year they don't know if they're going to have a team or not. Yeah, I know.
Starting point is 00:41:54 And that just lingers over the whole season like a stale fart. It's probably not great. They didn't have a great home record. No, they have the worst home field advantage in the league. One of the worst run defenses, too. Lucky they signed Bosa the other day. I'm trying to restrain
Starting point is 00:42:09 my excitement on Oakland because they look like a total bandwagon pick. Yeah. And I get it, but man, they have a lot of blue chippers on that team.
Starting point is 00:42:16 They do. You go down that list and they have probably the second best offensive line in the league after yours, Dallas. They have a quarterback who can make plays. They have a running back who can run Dallas. They have a quarterback who can make plays.
Starting point is 00:42:25 They have a running back who can run the ball. They have receivers who can make plays. They have impact guys on defense, including Khalil Mack, who is, when we get to defensive player of the year futures, I think is in the conversation. I think so, too. They added three starters or added in the secondary, like blue chippers. They're going to be good.
Starting point is 00:42:43 I like the over for them, eight and a half, and I think they make the playoffs. I think they're a wild card team. Really? Yeah. I think there's two playoff teams out of this division. Yeah. I think there's one. I'm just worried about Derek Carr. I like him. What's the most important game
Starting point is 00:43:00 he's played in so far in his career? What's been the most pressure-filled game? He didn't know that I had a parlay on this game, but to me, it was the most pressure filled game. But I remember he had a late TD where he led this drive and, and I just, I felt confident. I felt like he was going to come through for me. I really did. I can't remember the game.
Starting point is 00:43:20 How they all blend together. All right, let's take a quick break. Let's talk about NFLLSundayTicket.tv. Hey, Sal. Remember, it seems like a million years ago, but it might have only been eight. Our cousin, Jimmy Kimmel, for Christmas, I think, or your birthday, bought you DirecTV in a suitcase. No, it was a million. You're right.
Starting point is 00:43:39 It was a million years ago. It was a million years ago. And it was DirecTV. You open it up like a suitcase, and you could get all the games. And we thought it was the million years ago. And it was DirecTV. You open it up like a suitcase and you could get all the games. And we thought it was the coolest thing ever. And then streaming happened. And within two years, it was in your garage. Yeah, you had to point it exactly towards one of the planets for it to work.
Starting point is 00:43:54 Right. Well, now you can just stream football games. Really? I've been waiting for this forever. If you're a fan who can't get DirecTV where you live, there's great news. You can still watch football games every Sunday without a satellite for just $49.99 a month. Oh, my God. You can stream games using your favorite device.
Starting point is 00:44:12 You don't need a satellite anymore. If you're a college student, which you're not, you once were, there's an exclusive deal. You get NFL Sunday ticket for only $24.99 a month. Yeah, they care about the kids in college. Yeah. Right now, our listeners get an extra 10% off when using the promo code RINGER. So go to NFLSundayTicket.tv. Use promo code R-I-N-G-E-R right now.
Starting point is 00:44:37 Sunday ticket. Streaming. I love it. All right, back to the pod. All right, we're going to the NFC. Want to save the NFC East for last, or do you want to get over it? No, let's get it out of the way, please. Let's knock it out.
Starting point is 00:44:48 Giants plus 200, Washington plus 235, Dallas plus 275. We're going to be fine with Dak Prescott, who is a fourth-rounder and nobody had any idea he was going to play this year, and now everybody's excited about it. It's absolutely insane, but I'll roll with it. And then Philly plus 600. House, we'll start with you. Can Washington win the NFC East?
Starting point is 00:45:14 Of course they can. Not only can they, I believe they will, and I'm going to allocate some capital in that direction. I love them at plus 235. I love they're over.5. I love their over. Seven and a half is only minus 105. That's fantastic. Plus 190 to make the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:45:32 Last time I checked, you win the division, you make the playoffs. I'm putting capital on every single one of those. Kirk Cousins, 24 full NFL games, averaging 279.8 yards. That's good enough for second. In NFL history, right behind only Drew Brees at 280.7. D.C. Gruden's I'm all in. And you know why? It's because it's the preseason.
Starting point is 00:45:57 They haven't played a game yet. You did catch one break. You got Dallas in week two at home. Yeah. Normally that would be. Yeah, that's a legitimate break. You're winning that week two at home. Yeah. Normally that would be. Yeah, that's a legitimate break. You're winning that game.
Starting point is 00:46:08 I think you lose your first three. Pittsburgh, Dallas, and at the Giants. I'm sorry. Oh, and three. Two and one. Serious question about Dallas. Yeah. Because I think the Romo injury and the Zach Prescott,
Starting point is 00:46:22 Dak Prescott, I keep calling him Zach. You'll get it right. I'll get it right eventually. Dak Prescott. I keep calling him Zach. You'll get it right. I'll get it right eventually. Dak Prescott. It doesn't matter. Isn't the defense still kind of lousy? Yeah, it's bad. Okay.
Starting point is 00:46:32 It's bad. So you have a lousy defense and a quarterback who was a fourth rounder. And three of our defensive players, our better defensive players, are suspended. Two of them for the first four games and then one for ten, I think. So Barnwell had this in his column. Yeah. Shout out to Barnwell. He'll be the third real fourth rounder
Starting point is 00:46:53 to start as a rookie. Steve Berlant, I'm not counting him because he was hurt for a year. The other three. I know what this is. Mike Pagel and Chris Wenke were a combined one and 22. Right.
Starting point is 00:47:04 Fourth round rookie QBs. And then Kyle Orton, the neckbeard, 11-5 for the Bears. Yeah. So you're banking he's Kyle Orton. Let's say Romo's out the first. I mean, you think you're more confident in Garoppolo than you would be Dak Prescott behind the best line of scrimmage in the game. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:24 Behind the best offensive line. Correpo's been in the league for four years. What has he done? Zach Prescott was the fourth rounder. Zach Prescott. That's when you're like drafting punters. You stop this. Stop this.
Starting point is 00:47:34 Zach Prescott. I don't know. Russell Wilson wasn't high on anybody's board. I understand. I love it. Wow. You're on it. I love this.
Starting point is 00:47:43 I love it. I love it so much. Let me just ask you this. Everyone says the preseason doesn't matter. Would the Rams trade Jared Goff for Dak Prescott right now? No. You don't think so? What are you talking about?
Starting point is 00:47:55 You don't think so? Really? No, no, Sam. House, they wouldn't? Dak Prescott. Okay. All right. The Rams are funny, though.
Starting point is 00:48:02 Jared Goff stinks. Jared Goff might stink. After two games, you're going to change your... I'm going to remember that question. But the Cowboys overrun the win from 9.5 to 8. I think it should have gone lower. You're going to go under? Would that be your...
Starting point is 00:48:15 What's your over-under? I wouldn't bet on it because Romo is just crazy enough to be back in like five weeks. Or he might never play again. I have no feel for it. Told me he's coming back with a vengeance. I do love your running back. i love your running back yeah and if you ride you're gonna have two great offensive football players on the field at the same time in every game and that's why i wouldn't that's why i wouldn't bet the under all right i think when i
Starting point is 00:48:38 saw elliot knock knock cam chancellor back in that preseason game i was like oh i'm spending 50 i don't know my fitness that's a guy. I got excited. He's on the way to his dispensary, and he's getting that edge quickly. He's not screwing around. I'm staying away from this division. Really? If I had to bet on one of the teams, I would bet the Giants. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:02 I don't know why. I like what they did. I actually think that Tom Coughlin, to anybody who's awake, upgrade. I don't even know who the new Giants coach is. Ben McAdoo. Yeah, Ben McAdoo. I thought Coughlin was done two years ago. He's just a great, great career.
Starting point is 00:49:18 Two Super Bowls. Kudos to him. He was done. Put a fork in him. And that's got to be worth two wins. And I hate them like you hate the Colts, but I'm going over eight, minus 135. Eight seems low. They built their defense, signed two top ten free agent defensive linemen.
Starting point is 00:49:35 They got Olivia Vernon. They have Janaris Jenkins, had cornerback offense. I don't know, Victor Cruz or not. I like that guy, Shepard. I think they're going to score points. I'd like to see Victor Cruz write again. Yeah? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:47 He hasn't written a book in a couple years. What? Yeah, I was just writing for another Victor. It's like Malcolm Gladwell, how he releases a book every two years or so. Victor Cruz, I'm ready for another one. I thought you meant write, R-I-G-A. I want to see him write. House, what division, if you added up their over-under for wins,
Starting point is 00:50:04 had the lowest combined total for the four teams? Last year? No, right now. Oh. Oh. Is it AFC South? No, they were second worst. They had 30.5 if you added them up.
Starting point is 00:50:16 The NFC East was the worst at 30. Wow. The four teams combined were 30. Really? That's just haters. It's a bad division. Yeah. I don't think anyone gets to 11 wins in that division,
Starting point is 00:50:28 and I think 10 could be tough. I believe you. I don't know. I don't know what to say. Jake Gruden's still your coach, House. The Giants are going to win the division. Yeah. The Eagles have no running backs.
Starting point is 00:50:38 Very bad running back group. I don't see how they put together more than eight wins. House, you have some stinkers on your schedule. Like the Browns and the Ravens are on there. That's good. You got Chicago. I'm telling you, I like the over. I am going to allocate some capital to over seven and a half.
Starting point is 00:50:57 That's just eight wins. They're an eight and eight team. That makes sense. Last three, House, for you. Carolina at Chicago and the Giants. So basically the Giants Redskins will decide that division probably week 17. I don't think so. That's right.
Starting point is 00:51:10 No, Tony Romo will decide it in week 10. Do you think Romo will be the color analyst for that game on Fox? Stop it. Why would you say such a thing? Give me 10 to 1 odds. 10 to 1 odds. He's going to have some great things to say about Poop Prescott. I think he will.
Starting point is 00:51:24 Poop Prescott. He'll be the color analyst and he'll be the winning quarterback. He could do it all. He'll do every single thing. That is, I mean, the one silver lining in this Romo thing is if this does lead to the end soon, he's the next Barkley. I'm calling it now. Right.
Starting point is 00:51:40 I think he'll be amazing. You think he's going to weigh 350 pounds? No, I don't think he'll weigh as much as Barkley, but I think he'll be amazing he's gonna weigh 350 pounds no i don't think i don't think he'll weigh as much as barclays but i think he'll be great so nfc north i'm sure these odds have changed once the bridgewater news comes out but this morning was green bay plus 180 minnesota plus 200 chicago 20 to 1 detroit 30 to 1 detroit 30 to 1 they took all that off yeah yeah so i i don't even know what to make of this. I was going to go Vikings under. I was, too. I was, too.
Starting point is 00:52:08 Now I don't know what that number will be. But Alliance aren't going to be. They just announced Bridgewater. What? What is it? Dislocated knee and ACL tear. No contact when it happens. Terrible.
Starting point is 00:52:19 Dislocated knee, ACL tear for Bridgewater. That's what happened to Nelson last year, basically. Yeah. see a tear from that's what nelson happened to nelson last year that's basically with the whole yeah so um well i think the packers run away with this now right well let me flip this around that's what i think too yeah you know i love playing this game are we sure the packers are good why not okay i think the whole narrative of aaron rogers makes everybody good around them maybe we could scale back on that a little i I think Jordy Nelson was more valuable than everybody thought. He's back. You definitely need one guy who can stretch the field a little and make some plays.
Starting point is 00:52:52 Fat Eddie is just maybe a little chubby. Daddy now is all right. I don't know. Not the P90X guy I remember. Yeah, right. No James Jones yet. They'll sign him at some point. No, but they do that thing.
Starting point is 00:53:04 A rare unrestricted free agent signing was, was cooked for the tight end of the Rams. They got him and then they draft well. They do, you know, they know what they're doing. It's funny. Like if they had an owner, I think McCarthy would have been fired two years ago and the owner would have gone in the off season and spent crazy money on a whole bunch of guys.
Starting point is 00:53:24 But because they're owned by the entire city yeah mccarthy gets to stay forever and it's like oh we we signed jared cook yeah it's like they're big siding everybody they just kind of run it back every year and how does like everybody in the city it has to be a unanimous vote right everybody in the city has to say the coach right it's not even like survivor there's like there's one descent yeah i i Yeah, I didn't love Green Bay last year. No. And they always looked disheveled to me. I'm not sold on McCarthy at all.
Starting point is 00:53:53 And I can't really think of anybody else who can win this division. Well, every year the Bears want to trick you into thinking... No, they're a year away from being a year away. They have the easiest schedule in the league. All 1 p.m. Eastern games after they they're by i write down really stupid things well the one thing i did notice with them because i was trying to make this case in my head yeah like if they somehow beat if they somehow win at houston in week one every every every week one somebody's stupid wins on the road against somebody then Then they're home for Philly Monday night. Then they have Zach Prescott on Sunday night.
Starting point is 00:54:30 Or Dak Prescott. Now I'm just doing it. Now I'm just doing it. But they're at Dallas, but they don't get Romo for week three. And then they're home for Detroit week four. I don't know. Let me ask you something while I have the Zach thing in my head. So I named my middle child Jack Romo. I gave him the Romo nickname not long after the Seattle loss,
Starting point is 00:54:51 the botch snap, whatever. I was like, this is going to inspire him. I could always name him Joe Montana. What's the sense of that? So now do I change it to Jack Prescott or Jack Dak? Jack Dak. I kind of like Jack Dak. Jack Dak. I kind of like Jack Dak. Jack Dak.
Starting point is 00:55:09 That should be your nickname for him. He's quirky enough. I don't think I could do that. There's no chance in hell that the Lions are going to be good? That's my under right there. Seven to nine last year. They've come back with a seven for an over-under this year. I don't know that you know stafford
Starting point is 00:55:25 at his lowest lowest grade as a quarterback since his rookie year last year and that's with calvin johnson no calvin johnson this year three of the first four on the road to start at indy tennessee at green bay at chicago i think that's one in three that's a bad start for a not very good team house do you have an NFC North bet? The only likable thing about Detroit is Golden Tate as a fantasy player. That's the only thing that's worth paying any attention to. I have a very boring point of view when it comes to NFC North, and I had it even before Teddy got hurt today.
Starting point is 00:56:02 I wish he hadn't got hurt. But I just think Green Bay last year was such an aberration in terms of the injuries and the slew of receivers unable to separate. It was such a weird narrative. They still have Aaron effing Rodgers.
Starting point is 00:56:20 Top three quarterback in the NFL. If I had to make a bet, I'm betting on Aaron Rodgers, and that's it. House, when I had Aaron Rodgers on the HBO show, I didn't ask him about his loser brother who's on The Bachelorette. And my thinking was, he has this brother who's taking advantage of his celebrity, and I don't know, I just don't like the brother. And I was just like, you know what?
Starting point is 00:56:45 If this guy was my brother, I wouldn't want to go on a TV show and be asked about him. And then I've been battling with it ever since, whether I should have asked him. House, you have two loser brothers. We have never asked you about them on the podcast. Do you feel like it's made our podcast better or worse? We've talked about my brothers before.
Starting point is 00:57:06 You know the thing that I would go to with both of them? At this stage in life, they could both out-eat me. I bet the two of them could put up a nice contest against Danny Chow. That's the only thing I can say about my brothers. Shout out to the House Brothers. I love the House Brothers. NFC South, Carolina minus 250, Tampa plus 750, New Orleans plus 750, Atlanta plus 800, which to me was the most perplexing,
Starting point is 00:57:35 shocking division odds of anything because I actually liked Atlanta. I liked them last year, and they were like a year away. Yeah. I liked the coach. I don't think he did a great job last year. They lost some dumb close games. They did and maybe matt ryan's just not good i mean maybe maybe that's just right where we are but plus 800 seems kind of crazy is that the best value or my nuts that's high so they're over under seven and a half we they have four of the first five road
Starting point is 00:58:03 games they're really tough it's a tough schedule, I thought, that they had. I'm just concerned about just penciling in Carolina after they lost the Super Bowl, and we've seen the history of these teams that lose the Super Bowl, and weird stuff always happens next year. That's my over in the division. Carolina? Okay. It's a little bit of a cheat, but 15-1 is astounding. And to drop them to 10-1⁄2 as the over-under, I think they get to 12.
Starting point is 00:58:28 You know, like Norman might be a big loss, but they're like a product of their front seven schemes, their secondary. But they have seven games on eight days rest. I really like them. I think they're good, and we like Benjamin, right? He was a beast the first year. Yeah, my red flags are up. But how far can you fall from 15-1 would be the counter to it.
Starting point is 00:58:51 Even if they're four wins worse, they're still 11-5. That's a month's worth of losses that you'd have to get more to get down to 10-1. What do you think? It's even odds, which is incredible to me. You don't have to pay for the over. So they're at Denver opening night in Tyler Simeon's first start. Well, Tyler Simeon's first start.
Starting point is 00:59:11 That might be a win. Yeah, I think they win that. And then they're home for San Francisco, and then home week three for Sean Hill and the Vikings. And then they're at Atlanta, home Tampa, at New Orleans, bye week. They could be 6-0. I love this over. I'm slamming this over.
Starting point is 00:59:29 You talked me into it. It flies in the face, everything I think, of these teams that are not that good, that have first-place schedules the next year. They were 7-8-1 the year before last, and then they came in with a first-place schedule and still dominated. I think they're that good. And people are trying to get a tiny bit excited about the saints i don't see it i don't think sean payton's ever been the same since he
Starting point is 00:59:51 took a year off yeah i think these guys are trained to just work their asses off when you're a head coach and have no life and that's all you do and you don't even it's almost like uh it's like the boy in the plastic bubble who knows no life. And then Sean Payton has that year off and he's like going to high school games. He's having dinner with his wife on Saturday nights. Yeah. I don't think he's ever been the same.
Starting point is 01:00:14 I mean, it just ruined him. You can't just go back to working 90 hours a week again. He got a glimpse of this whole other world. Right. It's like, oh, look at this. Oh yeah. Let's go to the park that'll be great yeah it's like the time house and i went from sushi to pizza in three minutes
Starting point is 01:00:30 it's just like that able to do it all right no but they allowed more rushing and passing yards than any other team last year and their big free agent signing was a tight end they're not they're not going in the right direction and tampa who i tried to talk myself into last year i just can't do it lovey smith i just can't i'm sorry lovey yeah i just can't do it i i just don't think you're a confident football coach and that team was so sloppy last year and had so many dumb between that and uh i want to like jamis i think he's a year away i i could see him throwing away a couple close games i do but i i believe down the road with him i think there's something about him yeah he has those gigantic receivers he's got a lot of nice
Starting point is 01:01:10 weapons and i think they set the franchise record for total yards last year but first two at atlanta at arizona i think they're owing too yeah i could see them being the team that's in games and could have won and foils a tease and almost like how the rams were for a couple years where the rams were seven to nine but like five of the seven wins were against great teams yeah i think both south divisions are stay aways everyone doing afc south i agree with that right like gambling wise yeah nfc west seattle minus 120 zona plus 140 the la rams 15 to 1 That's weird. And then the San Francisco 49ers, 30-1. They might as well be 600,000-1. Yeah. Guys, I love the Seahawks.
Starting point is 01:01:51 You do, huh? Yeah, I do. I love the Seahawks. They're minus 120. I think that Carson Pond, I don't think he's ever going to be the same from that playoff game. I don't. He was in the MVP talk last year. I don't.
Starting point is 01:02:06 One playoff game. It's in his head. I think you can get scarred by that. I don't care. I don't care. You can't change how I feel. Wow. All right.
Starting point is 01:02:14 I think Wilson is an MVP candidate. This is all Russell, Hustle, and Bustle prone. I like Lou Rawls. I like former Jazz. Man muscle love. R&B singer Lou Rawls as the running back I think is going to be great. I think they went 10 and 6 last year and if you play that season 20 times 10 and 6 is the worst outcome for that team they were so talented it was a weird year fluky year just whatever and i don't know i just think they're gonna be really good remember when seattle
Starting point is 01:02:42 when they lost at home it was a huge deal yeah they're going eight no at home three four years ago now it's like it's not a big deal they were five and three at home last year they lose lynch obviously you know rawls is nice but every year they lose a piece of their defense and it's bruce irvin this year i don't know i think i don't think they tank but i think they're around nine 9 or 10. I think Arizona's right in there with them. First five, Miami, at LA, San Francisco, at the Jets, bye week, home for Atlanta.
Starting point is 01:03:14 That feels like 5-0 heading into Week 6 at Zona. Pretty good. Yeah. I don't love their offensive line. There's weird things with this team. I don't know what it is. I don't know. There's weird things with this team. I don't know what it is. All right.
Starting point is 01:03:26 I'm glad we disagree. It's always better when we disagree because I don't like Arizona. No, I think they're – I think they fall off. I don't think anyone runs away with this. This is a good division. It always has been, except, well, maybe for those bottom two teams we'll get to. I wish the Rams had a QB because I like the talent on their team.
Starting point is 01:03:42 Yeah. And it's just not going to happen with Case Keenum and Jared Goff. What do you think, House? I agree. The funniest moment of hard knocks was Jeff Fisher in week one saying we're not going to go 7-9 again. And he's right because they're going to go 6-10.
Starting point is 01:04:00 Arizona has the highest odds on an over-under of anyone. Oh yeah, I saw that. Their over-under of anyone. Oh, yeah. I saw that. Their over-under is 9.5, and it's minus 235 to bet on the over. Bump that to 10 already. They won't bump it to 10. What does it have to go to?
Starting point is 01:04:14 Like minus 600? I don't understand. Yeah, so if you want to win $100 in that, you have to sacrifice 235. Right. Yet they won't move it up. It's like they know something. That's what's good. They know something.
Starting point is 01:04:24 And how do we know Carson Palmer is going to play two straight healthy seasons? Yeah. I don't know. When they beat up on your Patriots by three and a half touchdowns week one. Garoppolo's going to take his helmet off, and they're going to be so disarmed by his handsome looks. What's your over-under? So your Seattle's your over?
Starting point is 01:04:41 No, I don't have one in this division. I'd like Seattle to win it, though. Do you have an over-under house? You just have the under for the Rams? I have the under for the Rams. The only thing that was attractive to me at all was the idea of Arizona winning the division. It's plus 140, so I don't like that at all. I mean, Arizona and Seattle are going to go neck and neck.
Starting point is 01:05:03 Both of them could go 11-5. They could both go 10-6. I don't think because of the self-immolation, I mean, not the self-immolation. They're going to cannibalize wins in that division. So, I'm not going to do anything action-wise
Starting point is 01:05:20 on the NFC West. I'm with you, Hal. So, I think I am going to do something, and it's the Rams. Rams seven wins last year. They have them at seven and a half this year. I'm with you, Hal. So, though, I think I am going to do something, and it's the Rams. Rams, seven wins last year. They have them at seven and a half this year. I think they're around five or six this year. Bill, what happened our first year in L.A., your first year in L.A.? It was a waste of time, right?
Starting point is 01:05:37 We played that stupid video game in the green room. It's tough. You can't adjust to it. It's hard to adjust. It's hard to adjust. It's nice every day. Yeah. Football's coming out at 930 on Thanksgiving. Exactly. Yeah. It's tough. You can't adjust to it. It's hard to adjust. It's hard to adjust. It's nice every day. Football's coming out at 9.30 on Thanksgiving.
Starting point is 01:05:47 Exactly. Yeah, it's weird. Yeah, this team's going to have a tough time adjusting. Beautiful girls. Right. Right. They're in trouble with the girls. You have to pay so much for that under, because it's minus 235.
Starting point is 01:05:57 It is, right? But yeah. I mean, I'm prepared to do it. I'm just saying, it's going to be pricey for us. I wish we could tease that, but to Bill's point, they're begging you to take the over there. The over is plus 190. They really want it. I won't do it. I'm just saying it's going to be pricey for us. I wish we could tease that, but to Bill's point, they're begging you to take the over there. The over is plus 190. They really want it. I won't do it. Four 1 p.m. games. I won't do it. They played
Starting point is 01:06:11 in London against the Giants. That counts as a home game. They have the worst receivers in the league. I don't know. I don't like it. They extended Tavon Austin. Yeah. They gave him like $30 million guaranteed. It's outrageous. He's one of those guys, it was like he's one of those guys he was like how percy harvin was where you have to go out of your way to get him the ball
Starting point is 01:06:29 you can't just run around and get open you have to like run these give and place receptions are behind the line yeah yeah uh we're gonna take a break and then we're gonna come back and talk about futures here on the bs podcast hey if you've ever seen anything we've done in my office for facebook live you probably noticed how nice my posters looked. That's because our friends at Framebridge framed every single thing in there. And they're the best. Just go to Framebridge.com, pick out a frame for your favorite Instagram for $39, a small photo for $59, and your standard movie poster for $139. You can upload digital photos.
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Starting point is 01:07:46 The best odds are 6-1 for Rodgers. I can't remember an MVP year where nobody was 5-1 or under. Oh, yeah, you're right. Ben and Cam are set plus 700. Wilson's plus 800. Lux plus 1,000. Palmer, 1,400. Brady, 1,600.
Starting point is 01:08:02 Eli, 30-1. Derek Carr, 6-1. Just throwing him throwing him out there i mean everybody's on there my favorite one was uh russell hustle and bustle at eight to one who do you like so wasn't luck i think luck was the favorite last year and that went away really quickly i'm gonna go with aaron rogers i think he has something to prove i think um you may have been able to rattle him with a question about his brother, but you passed, so now he's moved on from that, and now he's focused. I stand by it.
Starting point is 01:08:30 Yeah. No, I think so. But I also think he was waiting for you to ask him. I do get that. I thought he was a little bit guarded. It doesn't really matter in terms of my MVP vote. I like Aaron Rodgers at 6-1. His brother was such a loser.
Starting point is 01:08:43 Yeah. I just – He just wasn't the biggest loser on that show. That's the thing. House, who's up? I have a dumb pick, and I hate that I'm about to make this selection, but I really like the odds. For three-quarters of
Starting point is 01:09:00 a season, I can have Tom Brady at 16-1. Talk about the all-time FU season coming back from that four-game suspension. Has everything to prove. Stick it to the league. He's going to be on the banner every single week. 350
Starting point is 01:09:15 yards a week, Tom Brady. That's what he's going to need to get to MVP status. If they're going to win the division and have the bye week that they need going into the AFC playoffs, they need to go 12-4, 13-3. Tommy Brady and
Starting point is 01:09:31 Billy Belichick pulling it together 16-1 time. Brady, I'm going to do that. I really like that one because let's say he goes 12-0. Yeah, I was going to say that bet is dependent on the first four games. It depends on something he has no control over.
Starting point is 01:09:48 I think you have to be 1-3 for Tom Brady to win the MVP. I think it would be funny, though, if he was like 11-0 and the MVP stuff started up and then all the talking heads started arguing about it and you get the former football players getting really mad. You cannot be the MVP if you've missed the first four games of the season. I'm sorry. You get a lot of that stuff. I love it.
Starting point is 01:10:11 I like Wilson an 8-1 because if Seattle's good, it's going to be because he was freaking incredible. I didn't realize. I looked at our fantasy league last year just to see who had the most points. He had the third most points last year in our league. Yeah, just everything he does. Remember how hot he got the last nine games? That makes sense.
Starting point is 01:10:28 I don't know. I don't love any of those. Yeah, they changed their offense, and Doug Baldwin caught 400 touchdown passes. Oh, that was it. I mean, are they going to be worse off with the, what's his name back, Graham? I don't know. Maybe he gets in the way. All right, now it's time for the lock of the year.
Starting point is 01:10:43 Normally the Patriots to win the AFC East is the lock of the year. This year we have for the lock of the year normally the patriots to win the afc east is the lock of the year this year we have a different lock of the year it's the offensive rookie of the year ezekiel elliott is plus 130 i don't understand it i don't know why those why he's not like minus 300 i look at the other names on the list i'm not scared of any of them right Right. Dak, Prescott. Good. Jared Goff, Treadwell, Shepard, Derek Henry's backing up DeMarco Murray. Tyler Boyd. I just, I don't see how this is a minus 300. And I think he's going to be awesome. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:11:18 I hope you're right. So why are those the odds? Dak was 40 to one before the announcement. Now he's seven to one. But still a little rich for my blood. I don't think you could give. Oh, so you're saying it's too low? Or it should be lower?
Starting point is 01:11:31 I think Elliott should be like minus 300. Can they really do that? Can they make one player a minus when there's so many? What other player are you betting on? He's never played a snap. I know. I think one of the receivers has a shot this year. Oh, stop.
Starting point is 01:11:44 I do. I'm telling you. I know. I think one of the receivers has a shot this year. Oh, stop. I do. Come on. I'm telling you. I like... Treadwell just lost his quarterback. Yeah. I like TyJay Sharp at 30-1. I like Devontae Booker, the running back, at 40-1.
Starting point is 01:11:56 I think those are good value bets. Devontae Booker. Okay. Yeah. Bronco's running back. How else do you like anyone? Just Elliott. That's it.
Starting point is 01:12:03 I know that's not very compelling. I forgot to mention when we did the MVPs, only four running backs have won the MVP this century. Peterson, Tomlinson, Sean Alexander, asterisk, and then Marshall Falk in 2000, if you're counting 2000 as part of the century. So if you're betting that, bet a QB. Bet the QBs on that as part of the century. So if you're betting that, bet a QB. Bet the QBs on that. Coach of the Year.
Starting point is 01:12:27 I looked up Coach of the Year to see if there's any rhyme or reason to this bet because who the hell would bet on this other than people who have a gambling problem like us? I can't even remember who won. Was it Rivera won? The last four years, Ron Rivera and Bruce Arians have traded Coach of the Years. Wow. And this year it's Bruce Arians' turn because Rivera won last year. Harbaugh won.
Starting point is 01:12:45 Belichick won in 2010. Marvin Lewis. Lovie Smith. Belichick in 2007. Sean Payton. Wow. And Lovie Smith. I have to say, you know, Panthers over-under is 10-1,
Starting point is 01:12:57 coming off a 15-win season. Ron Rivera 11-1? Man, if they put together a 13-3 again, that's right in the talk. What about Bill O'Brien at 50-1 if Houston has the random 11-5 season with Brock Osweiler? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:13:15 I guess. I don't love it. I didn't like any of these either. It's funny, Bill O'Brien, now that team's supposed to win eight, nine games, whatever. Chip Kelly is right there at 50-1. You guys know who the best bet is, and you team's supposed to win eight, nine games, whatever. Chip Kelly is right there at 50-1. You guys know who the best bet is, and you're just going to wait until I say it to try to make me sound like a homer. You like about 9-1?
Starting point is 01:13:34 They go 3-1 without Brady. He comes back. They go 13-3. Everybody does a Bill Belichick. You do whatever you want to the guy. You take away his first-round pick, take away his quarterback for four games. He still goes 13-3. 9-1 odds. You're never going to see 9-1 four games, he still goes 13-3. 9-1 odds. You're never going to see 9-1 for Belichick again.
Starting point is 01:13:49 That is true. 9-1 odds. I like the comedy of Andy Reid at 14-1, and that's what I would bet. It's a regular season award, right? It is. It is. So the better odds for Andy. He has a shot. That's funnier, too.
Starting point is 01:14:05 Actually, let's save next coach fired for last, because that's my favorite bet every year. Passing yards, I mean, it's a crapshoot, but I thought I didn't like any of them. I'm not even going to bother listing them. Is there anybody that you liked? I liked Phil Rivers a little bit, plus 750. Plus 750 for Phil.
Starting point is 01:14:23 Almost 4,800 yards last year. How else do you like anyone? Of course. I like Kirk Cousins. What was he? I like that. 25 to 1. I thought Carr at 25 to 1 was kind of fun. Yeah. But I wouldn't bet any of those.
Starting point is 01:14:40 They're going to run too much. Rushing yards. I might just put more money in Ezekiel Elliott here. Plus 850. Really? Yeah, you only need 1,500 yards to win the rushing title. He can't rush for 1,500 yards. He's going to be running through three guys every carry.
Starting point is 01:14:53 That's pretty good. By the way, they took this off the board on the site we normally use because of AP, I guess. Oh, because he was the favorite at plus 375. Gurley's plus 450, no quarterback. Lamar Miller's plus 900. Rawls was plus 1600. Doug Martin plus 1400. David Johnson, who went for like $44 in our fantasy league yesterday.
Starting point is 01:15:14 I'm not even positive he's going to be the full-time back there. Catches a lot of passes. Plus 1800. That doesn't help this bet. What about Bell at 30-1? Any interest? I think it's too many games off. You can't give up
Starting point is 01:15:26 300 yards and win this. He only needs to get to 1,500 yards. To win the whole thing? Last year it was like 1,450. I don't know. It's funny. When we did our draft yesterday, I looked at the top five running backs. I'm like, who's going to have the most yards? That's who I'll bid the most on. You couldn't even figure it out.
Starting point is 01:15:43 House, you like anybody? No. You, you like anybody? No. You know what I like? I like dinner, and I have a dinner reservation in 12 minutes. I'm on vacation. I'm going to go to dinner now. Bye, House. Thanks for joining us.
Starting point is 01:15:57 My number one lock of the century, Rex Ryan, first to be fired. That's the one that I like. Rex Ryan, that's plus 600. Joe House, a pleasure. Take care. Go stuff your face like Rex Ryan, first to be fired. That's the one that I like. I love that guy. Great. I love him. Rex Ryan, that's plus $1,600. Joe Haas, a pleasure. Take care. Go stuff your face like Rex Ryan. Enjoy dinner.
Starting point is 01:16:11 Talk to you. All right. All right, Sal. He's great. Specials. Yeah. Wait, can we go defensive rookie of the year? I thought you were going to talk about that.
Starting point is 01:16:19 I think we're looking the same way here. Yeah. Khalil Mack? Not rookie of the year, player of the year. I'm sorry, yeah, defensive player of the year. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, I crossed off JJ.
Starting point is 01:16:29 I crossed off Von Miller. Khalil Mack is what? Plus 550. Yeah. I like that. Let's do that. I like that. But Marcus Peters, D-back for the Chiefs, eight interceptions rookie year, 200-1.
Starting point is 01:16:41 Wow. It's not usually a cornerback, but, or a defensive back. Khalil Mack's one of the few players who's ever played football that I've actually been afraid of just home watching television. Yeah. Like, I just feel like, I watch him, I'm like, thank God I don't play football. Right. It'd be just awful to get tackled by the guy.
Starting point is 01:16:56 How happy is he, like, that Simeon is back, like, someone like that is back there? Let's all agree that it'd be really fun if the Raiders were good. Sure. It's just more fun. It's better, the late games, the. Sure. It's just more fun. It's better. The late games. The last Monday night game is always more fun. Also, if they move to Vegas, maybe give that city one more. Yeah, I'd feel bad for the Oakland people.
Starting point is 01:17:14 2,000 plus receiving yards this year. Oh. Plus 500 odds. Yeah. Somebody has to break 2,000. It would be Antonio Brown if it happened. Oh, so that's what so he did it in a calendar year he did in his last six it was like there was like 16 games in a row
Starting point is 01:17:30 he had 2000 but not in the same but not in the same what is that 120 something plus 500 about 120 yards a game about yeah that's a game uh it's like 100 and uh yeah 125 something like that that's like kurt warner ram but the odds aren't good enough. Right. Will a QB have two 500-yard games, 12-1? Someone did this last year. I'm almost positive. I think Roethlisberger did it. Was it him? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:17:54 Yeah, one of these guys did it. Yes. Plus 1,200? That's a 12-1 odds that's going to happen? That's pretty good. I kind of like that one. Yeah. Will a running back rush for 2,000 yards plus 1,000?
Starting point is 01:18:05 I wish there was a way to short that because that's not happening. I don't think so either. Here's one I really liked. I think you're going to get excited about this one. Any team, one team, just one, will go 14-2. Yeah, I see that. Plus 200. Who is it?
Starting point is 01:18:23 Did we like anybody to go 14-2? Just somebody has to get 14 15 or 16 wins you win but i just don't know who gets there tate am i an idiot here what uh kc carolina yeah the ads aren't quite good enough but i liked it you think someone will have 13 in week 17 so you can maybe go against it 24 receiving tds 15 to 1 that's a lot grok no come on that's a lot he and uh bennett will have 24 but you have to you have to have one of them right all right let's do it it's time our favorite bet of the year next coach fired all right let's go to it let me find this i wish we had a sponsor for the next coach fired. All right, let's go to it. Let me find this. I wish we had a sponsor for the next coach fired. What a great thing to have.
Starting point is 01:19:08 Maybe SimpliSafe could have sponsored this one. Shout out to SimpliSafe. Who's the headhunter server, the one that hires people on the spot? That's who should have been. I forgot who it is. SimpliSafe brings security to your home. And speaking of security, here's some coaches that don't have them right now. All right.
Starting point is 01:19:27 So next coach fired. Jim Caldwell and Mike McCoy are leaders at plus 500. Chuck Pagano, who just got an extension, is still 12 to 1. I think he's fired. Rex Riott, 16 to 1. Malarkey, 18 to 1, who just should be fired every week. Right. Jason Garrett, 20-1.
Starting point is 01:19:51 Garrett's safe again, I think, because of this situation. He loves when starting quarterbacks get hurt. He buys another year. Exactly. But he goes house shopping. Jay Gruden, 25-1. McCarthy, 80-1. Still my favorite long shot bet.
Starting point is 01:20:04 But I like Mike McCoy. To, 80-1. Still my favorite long shot bet. I like Mike McCoy. To get fired. You do. I do. I think that San Diego team, there's a little excitement which usually leads to, if things go wrong right away, a lot of bitterness, anger, confusion, finger pointing.
Starting point is 01:20:21 Plus the stench of that team, are they going to leave or not i'm not sold on them being that good if i had to pick i would pick that caldwell is obviously a very inviting choice you know caldwell i thought was worse than he was he did have that 11 and 5 year two years ago and then seven to nine last year but i it just it's just not a fun team i think i go jeff fisher nine to one they just gave him an extension? No, I think that's it. I think they spent a ton of money on him and moving out here. He can't even teach his team to learn that dinosaurs are real
Starting point is 01:20:54 and that mermaids weren't. I'm less impressed with him than I was before Hard Knocks. I think something happens. Oh, interesting. They shake it a little bit. Because the Hard Knocks coaches, either you like them more or you like them less after you you i've been less impressed yeah right yeah campo is still the all-time oh yeah i'll never forget the dave campo season yeah he sealed his fate when he put that sea world that that wetsuit on like all right this guy's done yeah you shouldn't
Starting point is 01:21:19 i shouldn't be home watching a coach on hard knocks going how is this guy in charge of 53 people right and a coaching staff? This is incredible. Yeah. And that was my reaction to Dave Campa. So you think Jeff Fisher? I think so. They just gave him an extension.
Starting point is 01:21:34 Yeah, they don't care. That doesn't matter. That's mine. What was your favorite bet of all the bets? Jets under. I'm telling you. That team's garbage. We should also mention we did the super contest this year oh yeah yeah we went we flew to vegas we signed up i had a year hiatus so did you you're we're back you did a great year in espn last year i know thank you i will not be back there they
Starting point is 01:21:59 didn't want me they didn't say uh why it's a uh part of our effort to cut costs continuing effort and then they coughed and said bill simmons name six times which i don't know i get blamed for this well i just i was like hey you all right take some water but yeah they coughed and said your name but uh yeah no but i may have something uh big in the works and i'll we'll announce it next week yeah and we have one last thing to say. I don't know how the fans are going to react to this. What is it? We are doing the pod every week this year,
Starting point is 01:22:32 but we're doing it on a different day. We're going to be taping them on Wednesday afternoons. After the season. After the season. Retroactively talking, pretending we knew what happened. We're taping them on Wednesday afternoons and releasing them Thursday mornings. Right. In time for the first Thursday night game.
Starting point is 01:22:49 Yeah. Which is something we had toyed with doing anyway, but with schedules made it so that this is how we had to do it. And we're still going to guess the lines. We'll write it down Sunday night, send it to each other, and then whatever the line is when we tape Wednesday night. So we're going to guess the lines on Sunday, keep track of that, and then as we do it, it's still going to be who won. Right. But actually, the lines will have shifted by three days, and I actually think it'll
Starting point is 01:23:17 be a little bit easier to preview the week. Well, half the people were annoyed that we didn't watch the Monday night game before we picked the lines anyway. So they wanted us doing a Tuesday. So this is one day later. It'll be solved that it'll be good. You guys will be totally happy. Bill's too big time.
Starting point is 01:23:32 He's got this HBO show. They want him to focus on it. No, it's the, the, the grind of the TV show is Monday and Tuesday. So, right.
Starting point is 01:23:40 And I love doing this podcast. So I wanted to make sure that we, uh, that I was properly researched. That's right. Not talking out of my ass. Oh, wait, I talk out of ass every podcast. Me too. I wanted to make sure that I was properly researched. That's right. Not talking out of my ass. Oh, wait. I talk out of my ass every podcast.
Starting point is 01:23:48 It's still going to happen. Very excited, though. Year 10 for us. Yeah, we do. So we'll be back. Oh, yeah. Next Wednesday, right? Or next Thursday.
Starting point is 01:23:58 We're taping next Wednesday. So we'll be back next time you hear it. You'll hear it. We have another BS podcast coming next week. Or coming later this week. But Sal will be back Thursday morning, week it. You'll hear it. We have another BS podcast coming next week or coming later this week, but Sal will be back Thursday morning, week one, Guess the Lines. As always, good job by you.
Starting point is 01:24:11 Good job by you, boy. Anytime y'all want to see me again, rewind this track right here, close your eyes, and picture me rolling. Alright, thanks so much to Sling TV. Remember, the best way to watch live TV on your turf for just $20 a month.
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Starting point is 01:24:46 Restrictions do apply. Thanks to SeatGeek, our presenting sponsor. Don't forget to check out TheRinger.com. Don't forget about our seven other podcast feeds on The Ringer Podcast Network, including The Ringer NFL Show. Don't forget about my new HBO show any given Wednesday, 10 p.m. Wednesday. HBO, we come back on September 7th. Check out all the old episodes and extra clips on HBO Now, HBO Go, or HBO On Demand.
Starting point is 01:25:12 And that's it. We will be back at the end of this week with one more podcast, and then we start the football podcast again next week, the day after my show comes back. Enjoy the rest of the middle of the week.

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